WorldWideScience

Sample records for assessing potential future

  1. Assessing potential future environmental legislative, regulatory, and judicial events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonn, B.; Schweitzer, M.; Godfrey, G. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Wagner, C. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville (United States); MacGregor, D.G. [MacGregor-Bates, Inc. (United States)

    1998-03-01

    This report describes a methodology to proactively and methodically assess future potential environmental legislative, regulatory, and judicial events. This is an important endeavor because new, revised, and reauthorized legislation, proposed and final regulations, and outcomes of judicial proceedings have the potential to impose new actions, directions, and costs of many organizations in the United States (related to capital investments, operating approaches, and research and development) and to affect the quality of life. The electric power industry is particularly impacted by environmental regulatory events (the term `regulatory` is used to cover all the types of legal events listed above), as the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity affects air and water quality, require disposal of solid, hazardous, and radioactive wastes, and at times, impacts wetlands and endangered species. Numerous potential regulatory events, such as the reauthorization of the Clean Water Act and new regulations associated with global climate change, can greatly affect the power industry. Organizations poised to respond proactively to such events will improve their competitive positions, reduce their costs in the long-term, and improve their public images.

  2. Assessing Vulnerability of Electricity Generation Under Potential Future Droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, E.; Tidwell, V. C.; Wigmosta, M. S.

    2014-12-01

    In the past few decades, the western US experienced increased sever, frequent, and prolonged droughts resulting in significant water availability issues, which raised questions as to how electricity sector might be vulnerable to future droughts. To improve our understanding of potential risks of electricity generation curtailment due to drought, an impact analysis was performed with a series of modeling tools including climate downscaling, competitive water-use calculator, hydrologic model for various hydrologic processes, and power-plant specific models. This presentation will demonstrate the predicted effects of potential droughts on power generation at a local level of the USGS 8-digit watersheds and individual power plants within the context of current and future characteristics of power system and water resource system.The study identified three potential drought scenarios based on historical drought records and projected climate changes from the GFDL and the PCM global climate models, for greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 defined by the IPCC. The potential impacts under these three drought scenarios were evaluated with a hydrologic model constructed for the Pacific Northwest River Basin and California River Basin. The hydrologic model incorporates competitive water uses, climate forcing data corresponding to each of drought scenarios, and all major reservoirs that are currently supporting water withdrawal for various sectors and hydroelectric power generation. The hydrologic responses to drought scenarios predicted for each of the USGS 8-digit watersheds and reservoirs are used as input to power-plant specific models to quantify potential risk of curtailment at each power plant. The key findings from this study will help to improve understanding of spatial distribution of vulnerable power plants and watersheds as well as the scale of potential reduction of electricity generation under various drought scenarios. Beyond impacts to the existing

  3. Current assessment and future potential of the international nuclear market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This is a study of the current and future situation of the international nuclear market. This paper highlights the projections as seen not only by Bechtel Power Corporation, but also by the international nuclear community. It covers in particular the electric power growth projection; the percentage of probable nuclear power generation; operating services for existing nuclear power plants; and the nuclear fuel cycle. (NEA)

  4. ASSESSING THE FUTURE MIGRATION POTENTIAL OF THE EU CANDIDATE COUNTRIES

    OpenAIRE

    Assoc. Prof. Ph.D Vesna Bucevska

    2010-01-01

    In the realm of the EU accession, the EU candidate countries and EU are facing a number of challenges raised by the potential migration from these countries to EU. In this paper we try to answer the question if the fear of large migration pressure from these countries to EU is justified by estimating the migration potential of Croatia, Macedonia and Turkey to Germany, as the most dominant EU receiving country of immigrants in the period 1997-2007. The results from the extended gravity model r...

  5. Wind diesel systems - design assessment and future potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Infield, D.G.; Scotney, A.; Lundsager, P.; Bindner, H.; Uhlen, K.; Toftevaag, T.; Skarstein, Ø.

    1992-01-01

    Diesels are the obvious form. of back-up electricity generation in small to medium sized wind systems. High wind penetrations pose significant technical problems for the system designer, ranging from component sizing to control specification and dynamic stability. A key role is seen for proven...... system models for assessing both dynamic characteristics and overall performance and economics. An introduction is provided to the Wind Diesel Engineering Design Toolkit currently under development (for implementation on PC) by a consortium of leading wind diesel experts, representing six European...

  6. ASSESSMENT OF ALLERGENIC POTENTIAL OF GENETICALLY MODIFIED FOODS: AN AGENDA FOR FUTURE RESEARCH

    Science.gov (United States)

    AbstractSpeakers and participants in the Workshop Assessment of the Allergenic Potential of Genetically Modified Foods met in breakout groups to discuss a number of issues including needs for future research. There was agreement that research should move forward quickly in t...

  7. Assessment of allergenic potential of genetically modified foods: an agenda for future research.

    OpenAIRE

    Selgrade, MaryJane K.; Kimber, Ian; Goldman, Lynn; Germolec, Dori R.

    2003-01-01

    Speakers and participants in the workshop "Assessment of the Allergenic Potential of Genetically Modified Foods" met in breakout groups to discuss a number of issues including needs for future research. These groups agreed that research should progress quickly in the area of hazard identification and that a need exists for more basic research to understand the mechanisms underlying food allergy. A list of research needs was developed.

  8. Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Popescu

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, which are having fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB and makes an analysis of the maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin for a horizon of 30 yr (i.e. year 2040. Current hydropower production is estimated based on historic available data while future energy production is deduced from the maximum available water in the catchment, whereas electricity demand is assessed by correlating existing electricity demand with the estimated population growth and economic development. The maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin, were assessed for the mean annual flows of the present hydrological regime (1970–2000 and topographical characteristics of the area.

    Computations were performed using an integrated GIS environment called Vapidro-Aste released by the Research on Energy System (Italy. The residual hydropower potential of the basin is computed considering that first the water supply needs for population, industry and agriculture are served and than hydropower energy is produced. The calculated hydropower production is found to be approximately half of the estimated electricity demand, which shows that there is a need to look for other sources of energy in the future.

  9. Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popescu, I.; Brandimarte, L.; Perera, M. S. U.; Peviani, M.

    2012-08-01

    La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay), which have fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence, hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB), and it analyses the maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin for a horizon of 30 yr (i.e. year 2040). Current hydropower production is estimated based on historical available data, while future energy production is deduced from the available water in the catchment (estimated based on measured hydrographs of the past years), whereas electricity demand is assessed by correlating existing electricity demand with the estimated population growth and economic development. The maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin were assessed for the mean annual flows of the present hydrological regime (1970-2000) and topographical characteristics of the area. Computations were performed using an integrated GIS environment called VAPIDRO-ASTE released by the Research on Energy System (Italy). The residual hydropower potential of the basin is computed considering first that the water supply needs for population, industry and agriculture are served, and then hydropower energy is produced. The calculated hydropower production is found to be approximately half of the estimated electricity demand, which shows that there is a need to look for other sources of energy in the future.

  10. Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Popescu

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, which have fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence, hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB, and it analyses the maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin for a horizon of 30 yr (i.e. year 2040. Current hydropower production is estimated based on historical available data, while future energy production is deduced from the available water in the catchment (estimated based on measured hydrographs of the past years, whereas electricity demand is assessed by correlating existing electricity demand with the estimated population growth and economic development. The maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin were assessed for the mean annual flows of the present hydrological regime (1970–2000 and topographical characteristics of the area.

    Computations were performed using an integrated GIS environment called VAPIDRO-ASTE released by the Research on Energy System (Italy. The residual hydropower potential of the basin is computed considering first that the water supply needs for population, industry and agriculture are served, and then hydropower energy is produced. The calculated hydropower production is found to be approximately half of the estimated electricity demand, which shows that there is a need to look for other sources of energy in the future.

  11. Projecting future grassland productivity to assess the sustainability of potential biofuel feedstock areas in the Greater Platte River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.; Boyte, Stephen; Phyual, Khem

    2014-01-01

    This study projects future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) grassland productivities in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB) using ecosystem performance (EP, a surrogate for measuring ecosystem productivity) models and future climate projections. The EP models developed from a previous study were based on the satellite vegetation index, site geophysical and biophysical features, and weather and climate drivers. The future climate data used in this study were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 3.0 ‘SRES A1B’ (a ‘middle’ emissions path). The main objective of this study is to assess the future sustainability of the potential biofuel feedstock areas identified in a previous study. Results show that the potential biofuel feedstock areas (the more mesic eastern part of the GPRB) will remain productive (i.e., aboveground grassland biomass productivity >2750 kg ha−1 year−1) with a slight increasing trend in the future. The spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3519, 3432, 3557, 3605, 3752, and 3583 kg ha−1 year−1 for current site potential (2000–2008 average), 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099, respectively. Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will likely continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, grasslands identified as having no biofuel potential in the drier western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1822, 1691, 1896, 2306, 1994, and 2169 kg ha−1 year−1 for site potential, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099). These areas should continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. These future grassland productivity estimation maps can help land managers to understand and adapt to the expected changes in future EP in the GPRB and to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of potential biofuel feedstock areas.

  12. Assessing potential changes of chestnut productivity in Europe under future climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calheiros, T.; Pereira, M. G.; Pinto, J. G.; Caramelo, L.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Dacamara, C. C.

    2012-04-01

    The European chestnut is cultivated for its nuts and wood. Several studies point to the dependency of chestnut productivity on specific soil and climate characteristics. For instance, this species dislikes chalky and poorly drained soils, appreciates sedimentary, siliceous and acidic to neutral soils. Chestnut trees also seems to appreciate annual mean values of sunlight spanning between 2400 and 2600 h, rainfall ranging between 600 and 1500 mm, mean annual temperature between 9 and 13°C, 27°C being the mean of the maximum temperature (Heiniger and Conedera, 1992; Gomes-Laranjo et al.,2008). The amount of heat between May and October must range between 1800°D and 2400°D (Dinis et al., 2011) . In Poland, the growing season is defined as the period of time when the mean 24-h temperature is greater than 5°C (Wilczynski and Podalski, 2007). In Portugal, maximum photosynthetic activity occurs at 24-28°C for adult trees, but exhibits more than 50% of termoinhibition when the air temperature is above 32°C, which is frequent during summer (Gomes- Laranjo et al., 2006, 2008). Recently Pereira et al (2011) identified a set of meteorological variables/parameters with high impact on chestnut productivity. The main purpose of this work is to assess the potential impacts of future climate change on chestnut productivity in Portugal as well as on European chestnut orchards. First, observed data from the European Climate assessment (ECA) and simulations with the Regional Circulation Model (RCM) COSMO-CLM for recent climate conditions are used to assess the ability of the RCM to model the actual meteorological conditions. Then, ensemble projections from the ECHAM5/COSMO-CLM model chain for two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) are used to estimate the values of relevant meteorological variables and parameters und future climate conditions. Simulated values are then compared with those obtained for present climate. Results point to changes in the spatial and temporal

  13. Assessement of rheumatic diseases with computational radiology: Current status and future potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In recent years, several computational image analysis methods to assess disease progression in rheumatic diseases were presented. This review article explains the basics of these methods as well as their potential application in rheumatic disease monitoring, it covers radiography, sonography as well as magnetic resonance imaging in quantitative analysis frameworks.

  14. Assessing current and future techno-economic potential of concentrated solar power and photovoltaic electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    CSP and PV technologies represent energy sources with large potentials. We present cost-supply curves for both technologies using a consistent methodology for 26 regions, based on geoexplicit information on solar radiation, land cover type and slope, exploring individual potential and interdependencies. For present day, both CSP and PV supply curves start at $0.18/kWh, in North Africa, South America, and Australia. Applying accepted learning rates to official capacity targets, we project prices to drop to $0.11/kWh for both technologies by 2050. In an alternative “fast-learning” scenario, generation costs drop to $0.06–0.07/kWh for CSP, and $0.09/kWh for PV. Competition between them for best areas is explored along with sensitivities of their techno-economic potentials to land use restrictions and land cover type. CSP was found to be more competitive in desert sites with highest direct solar radiation. PV was a clear winner in humid tropical regions, and temperate northern hemisphere. Elsewhere, no clear winner emerged, highlighting the importance of competition in assessments of potentials. Our results show there is ample potential globally for both technologies even accounting for land use restrictions, but stronger support for RD&D and higher investments are needed to make CSP and PV cost-competitive with established power technologies by 2050. - Highlights: • A consistent assessment of global potential for CSP and PV, with cost-supply curves for 26 regions. • Combined global CSP and PV potential below US$0.35/kWh estimated at 135,128 TWh per year. • Competition for same land-based solar resource implies that potentials cannot be added. • Attractive areas are MENA, Northern Chile, Australia, China and Southwestern USA. • Costs are projected to go down over time, reaching US$0.06–0.11/KWh for attractive sites in 2050

  15. Assessment of future variability in extreme precipitation and the potential effects on the wadi flow regime.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunawardhana, Luminda Niroshana; Al-Rawas, Ghazi A; Kazama, So; Al-Najar, Khalid A

    2015-10-01

    The objective of this study is to investigate how the magnitude and occurrence of extreme precipitation events are affected by climate change and to predict the subsequent impacts on the wadi flow regime in the Al-Khod catchment area, Muscat, Oman. The tank model, a lumped-parameter rainfall-runoff model, was used to simulate the wadi flow. Precipitation extremes and their potential future changes were predicted using six-member ensembles of general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Yearly maxima of the daily precipitation and wadi flow for varying return periods were compared for observed and projected data by fitting the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution function. Flow duration curves (FDC) were developed and compared for the observed and projected wadi flows. The results indicate that extreme precipitation events consistently increase by the middle of the twenty-first century for all return periods (49-52%), but changes may become more profound by the end of the twenty-first century (81-101%). Consequently, the relative change in extreme wadi flow is greater than twofolds for all of the return periods in the late twenty-first century compared to the relative changes that occur in the mid-century period. Precipitation analysis further suggests that greater than 50% of the precipitation may be associated with extreme events in the future. The FDC analysis reveals that changes in low-to-moderate flows (Q60-Q90) may not be statistically significant, whereas increases in high flows (Q5) are statistically robust (20 and 25% for the mid- and late-century periods, respectively). PMID:26370197

  16. Geriatric assessment with management in cancer care: Current evidence and potential mechanisms for future research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnuson, Allison; Allore, Heather; Cohen, Harvey Jay; Mohile, Supriya G.; Williams, Grant R.; Chapman, Andrew; Extermann, Martine; Olin, Rebecca L.; Targia, Valerie; Mackenzie, Amy; Holmes, Holly M.; Hurria, Arti

    2016-01-01

    Older adults with cancer represent a complex patient population. Geriatric assessment (GA) is recommended to evaluate the medical and supportive care needs of this group. “GA with management” is a term encompassing the resultant medical decisions and interventions implemented in response to vulnerabilities identified on GA. In older, non-cancer patients, GA with management has been shown to improve a variety of outcomes, such as reducing functional decline and health care utilization. However, the role of GA with management in the older adult with cancer is less well established. Rigorous clinical trials of GA with management are necessary to develop an evidence base and support its use in the routine oncology care of older adults. At the recent U-13 conference, “Design and Implementation of Intervention Studies to Improve or Maintain Quality of Survivorship in Older and/or Frail Adults with Cancer,” a session was dedicated to developing research priorities in GA with management. Here we summarize identified knowledge gaps in GA with management studies for older patients with cancer and propose areas for future research. PMID:27197915

  17. Geriatric assessment with management in cancer care: Current evidence and potential mechanisms for future research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnuson, Allison; Allore, Heather; Cohen, Harvey Jay; Mohile, Supriya G; Williams, Grant R; Chapman, Andrew; Extermann, Martine; Olin, Rebecca L; Targia, Valerie; Mackenzie, Amy; Holmes, Holly M; Hurria, Arti

    2016-07-01

    Older adults with cancer represent a complex patient population. Geriatric assessment (GA) is recommended to evaluate the medical and supportive care needs of this group. "GA with management" is a term encompassing the resultant medical decisions and interventions implemented in response to vulnerabilities identified on GA. In older, non-cancer patients, GA with management has been shown to improve a variety of outcomes, such as reducing functional decline and health care utilization. However, the role of GA with management in the older adult with cancer is less well established. Rigorous clinical trials of GA with management are necessary to develop an evidence base and support its use in the routine oncology care of older adults. At the recent U-13 conference, "Design and Implementation of Intervention Studies to Improve or Maintain Quality of Survivorship in Older and/or Frail Adults with Cancer," a session was dedicated to developing research priorities in GA with management. Here we summarize identified knowledge gaps in GA with management studies for older patients with cancer and propose areas for future research. PMID:27197915

  18. Assessing current and future techno-economic potential of concentrated solar power and photovoltaic electricity generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Köberle, Alexandre C.; Gernaat, David E H J; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2015-01-01

    CSP and PV technologies represent energy sources with large potentials. We present cost-supply curves for both technologies using a consistent methodology for 26 regions, based on geoexplicit information on solar radiation, land cover type and slope, exploring individual potential and interdependenc

  19. Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands

    OpenAIRE

    Popescu, I.; L. Brandimarte; M. S. U. Perera; M. Peviani

    2012-01-01

    La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay), which have fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence, hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB), and it analyses the maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin for a h...

  20. Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands

    OpenAIRE

    Popescu, I.; L. Brandimarte; M. S. U. Perera; M. Peviani

    2012-01-01

    La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay), which have fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence, hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB), and it analyses the maximum and residual hydropower potential of th...

  1. Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands

    OpenAIRE

    Popescu, I.; L. Brandimarte; Perera, M. S. U.; M. Peviani

    2012-01-01

    La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay), which are having fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB) and makes an analysis of the maximum and residual hydropower potential of t...

  2. Alternative future energy pathways: Assessment of the potential of innovative decentralised energy systems in the UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to meet its 2050 target of 80% carbon emissions reduction, the UK is facing a challenge of restructuring its energy system, possibly by introducing more decentralised energy (DE) systems. Following semi-structured interviews, four exemplar international cases have been critiqued in order to investigate the variety and interrelationship of the drivers and barriers involved during their implementation, and then compared with the barriers and drivers that can potentially affect the implementation of similar projects in the UK context. The impacts of the barriers on the outcomes of these projects were evaluated, and recommendations were presented on overcoming these barriers if replicating similar projects in the UK context. Governance drivers play the most significant role, whereas financial drivers (commonly believed to be crucial), are deemed to play a lesser role. Social, governance and financial barriers rather than technological barriers constitute the central problem areas for the increased adoption of DE. The drivers and barriers experienced in the international cases were similar to those anticipated in the UK. The case studies present a high potential for replication and scaling up in the UK context and demonstrate that the increased implementation of DE systems could also enhance social and governance benefits. - Highlights: • This paper examines four international urban decentralised energy initiatives. • Drivers and barriers are found to be highly diverse but similar to the ones in the UK. • Governance drivers play the most significant role. • Increased implementation of DE systems can enhance social and governance benefits

  3. Accuracy of a Low-Cost Novel Computer-Vision Dynamic Movement Assessment: Potential Limitations and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGroarty, M.; Giblin, S.; Meldrum, D.; Wetterling, F.

    2016-04-01

    The aim of the study was to perform a preliminary validation of a low cost markerless motion capture system (CAPTURE) against an industry gold standard (Vicon). Measurements of knee valgus and flexion during the performance of a countermovement jump (CMJ) between CAPTURE and Vicon were compared. After correction algorithms were applied to the raw CAPTURE data acceptable levels of accuracy and precision were achieved. The knee flexion angle measured for three trials using Capture deviated by -3.8° ± 3° (left) and 1.7° ± 2.8° (right) compared to Vicon. The findings suggest that low-cost markerless motion capture has potential to provide an objective method for assessing lower limb jump and landing mechanics in an applied sports setting. Furthermore, the outcome of the study warrants the need for future research to examine more fully the potential implications of the use of low-cost markerless motion capture in the evaluation of dynamic movement for injury prevention.

  4. Future research needs associated with the assessment of potential human health risks from exposure to toxic ambient air pollutants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möller, Lennart; Schuetzle, Dennis; Autrup, Herman

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents key conclusions and future research needs from a Workshop on the Risk Assessment of Urban Air, Emissions, Exposure, Risk Identification, and Quantification, which was held in Stockholm during June 1992 by 41 participants from 13 countries. Research is recommended in the areas of...... identification and quantification of toxics in source emissions and ambient air, atmospheric transport and chemistry, exposure level assessment, the development of improved in vitro bioassays, biomarker development, the development of more accurate epidemiological methodologies, and risk quantification...... techniques. Studies are described that will be necessary to assess and reduce the level of uncertainties associated with each step of the risk assessment process. International collaborative research efforts between industry and government organizations are recommended as the most effective way to carry out...

  5. Screening Assessment of Potential Human-Health Risk from Future Natural-Gas Drilling Near Project Rulison in Western Colorado

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Project Rulison underground nuclear test was conducted in 1969 at a depth of 8,400 ft in the Williams Fork Formation of the Piceance Basin, west-central Colorado (Figure 1). The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) is the steward of the site. Their management is guided by data collected from past site investigations and current monitoring, and by the results of calculations of expected behavior of contaminants remaining in the deep subsurface. The purpose of this screening risk assessment is to evaluate possible health risks from current and future exposure to Rulison contaminants so the information can be factored into LM's stewardship decisions. For example, these risk assessment results can inform decisions regarding institutional controls at the site and appropriate monitoring of nearby natural-gas extraction activities. Specifically, the screening risk analysis can provide guidance for setting appropriate action levels for contaminant monitoring to ensure protection of human health.

  6. Screening Assessment of Potential Human-Health Risk from Future Natural-Gas Drilling Near Project Rulison in Western Colorado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniels Jeffrey I.,Chapman Jenny B.

    2012-01-01

    The Project Rulison underground nuclear test was conducted in 1969 at a depth of 8,400 ft in the Williams Fork Formation of the Piceance Basin, west-central Colorado (Figure 1). The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) is the steward of the site. Their management is guided by data collected from past site investigations and current monitoring, and by the results of calculations of expected behavior of contaminants remaining in the deep subsurface. The purpose of this screening risk assessment is to evaluate possible health risks from current and future exposure to Rulison contaminants so the information can be factored into LM's stewardship decisions. For example, these risk assessment results can inform decisions regarding institutional controls at the site and appropriate monitoring of nearby natural-gas extraction activities. Specifically, the screening risk analysis can provide guidance for setting appropriate action levels for contaminant monitoring to ensure protection of human health.

  7. The future of environmental sustainability in the Taita Hills, Kenya: assessing potential impacts of agricultural expansion and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Maeda

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The indigenous cloud forests in the Taita Hills have suffered substantial degradation for several centuries due to agricultural expansion. Currently, only 1% of the original forested area remains preserved. Furthermore, climate change imposes an imminent threat for local economy and environmental sustainability. In such circumstances, elaborating tools to conciliate socioeconomic growth and natural resources conservation is an enormous challenge. This article tackles essential aspects for understanding the ongoing agricultural activities in the Taita Hills and their potential environmental consequences in the future. Initially, an alternative method is proposed to reduce uncertainties and costs for estimating agricultural water demand. The main characteristic of the approach proposed in this study is the use of satellite data to overcome data availability limitations. Furthermore, a modelling framework was designed to delineate agricultural expansion projections and evaluate the future impacts of agriculture on soil erosion and irrigation water demand. The results indicate that if current trends persist, agricultural areas will occupy roughly 60% of the study area by 2030. Rainfall erosivity is likely to increase during April and November due to climate change and slight decrease during March and May. Although the simulations indicate that climate change will likely increase total annual rainfall volumes during the following decades, irrigation requirements will continue to increase due to agricultural expansion. By 2030, new cropland areas may cause an increase of approximately 40% in the annual volume of water necessary for irrigation.

  8. Searching for native tree species and respective potential biomarkers for future assessment of pollution effects on the highly diverse Atlantic Forest in SE-Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study summarizes the first effort to search for bioindicator tree species and respective potential biomarkers for future assessment of potential mixed pollution effects on the highly diverse Atlantic Forest in SE-Brazil. Leaves of the three most abundant species inventoried in a phytosociological survey (Croton floribundus, Piptadenia gonoacantha and Astronium graveolens) were collected in four forest remnants during winter and summer (2012). Their potential bioindicator attributes were highlighted using a screening of morphological, chemical and biochemical markers. The leaf surface structure and/or epicuticular wax composition pointed the accumulator properties of C. floribundus and P. gonoacantha. C. floribundus is a candidate for assessing potential accumulation of Cu, Cd, Mn, Ni, S and Zn. P. gonoacantha is a candidate to monitor polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Increased levels of secondary metabolites and decreased antioxidant capacity in leaves of A. graveolens may support its value as a bioindicator for oxidative pollutants by visible dark stipplings. - Highlights: • We searched for tree species from Atlantic Forest for future air pollution monitoring in Brazil. • Croton floribundus, Astronium graveolens and Piptadenia gonoacantha were possible bioindicators. • P. gonoachanta was a potential bioindicator of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. • C. floribundus was a potential bioindicator of heavy metals and sulfur. • A. graveolens may be used for monitoring oxidative pollutants, due to its biochemical leaf traits. - Inherent characteristics of the most abundant native tree species were potential biomarkers for assessing pollution effects on the highly diverse Atlantic Forest in SE-Brazil

  9. Assessment of the present and future offshore wind power potential: a case study in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lizuma, Lita; Avotniece, Zanita; Rupainis, Sergejs; Teilans, Artis

    2013-01-01

    Offshore wind energy development promises to be a significant domestic renewable energy source in Latvia. The reliable prediction of present and future wind resources at offshore sites is crucial for planning and selecting the location for wind farms. The overall goal of this paper is the assessment of offshore wind power potential in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast as well as the identification of a trend in the future wind energy potential for the study territory. The regional climate model CLM and High Resolution Limited Area Model (Hirlam) simulations were used to obtain the wind climatology data for the study area. The results indicated that offshore wind energy is promising for expanding the national electricity generation and will continue to be a stable resource for electricity generation in the region over the 21st century. PMID:23983619

  10. Assessment of the Present and Future Offshore Wind Power Potential: A Case Study in a Target Territory of the Baltic Sea Near the Latvian Coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lita Lizuma

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Offshore wind energy development promises to be a significant domestic renewable energy source in Latvia. The reliable prediction of present and future wind resources at offshore sites is crucial for planning and selecting the location for wind farms. The overall goal of this paper is the assessment of offshore wind power potential in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast as well as the identification of a trend in the future wind energy potential for the study territory. The regional climate model CLM and High Resolution Limited Area Model (Hirlam simulations were used to obtain the wind climatology data for the study area. The results indicated that offshore wind energy is promising for expanding the national electricity generation and will continue to be a stable resource for electricity generation in the region over the 21st century.

  11. Searching for native tree species and respective potential biomarkers for future assessment of pollution effects on the highly diverse Atlantic Forest in SE-Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domingos, Marisa; Bulbovas, Patricia; Camargo, Carla Z S; Aguiar-Silva, Cristiane; Brandão, Solange E; Dafré-Martinelli, Marcelle; Dias, Ana Paula L; Engela, Marcela R G S; Gagliano, Janayne; Moura, Barbara B; Alves, Edenise S; Rinaldi, Mirian C S; Gomes, Eduardo P C; Furlan, Claudia M; Figueiredo, Ana Maria G

    2015-07-01

    This study summarizes the first effort to search for bioindicator tree species and respective potential biomarkers for future assessment of potential mixed pollution effects on the highly diverse Atlantic Forest in SE-Brazil. Leaves of the three most abundant species inventoried in a phytosociological survey (Croton floribundus, Piptadenia gonoacantha and Astronium graveolens) were collected in four forest remnants during winter and summer (2012). Their potential bioindicator attributes were highlighted using a screening of morphological, chemical and biochemical markers. The leaf surface structure and/or epicuticular wax composition pointed the accumulator properties of C. floribundus and P. gonoacantha. C. floribundus is a candidate for assessing potential accumulation of Cu, Cd, Mn, Ni, S and Zn. P. gonoacantha is a candidate to monitor polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Increased levels of secondary metabolites and decreased antioxidant capacity in leaves of A. graveolens may support its value as a bioindicator for oxidative pollutants by visible dark stipplings. PMID:25818087

  12. Career Potential of Future Expert

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana Petrovna Tsaritsentseva

    2015-01-01

    This article is devoted to description and analysis of individual career potential. Topicality of the problem andthe degree of its readiness in the modern science are stated at the beginning of the article.Notions of “career”, career factors, career potential and inner resources of personality being a part of careerpotential structure due to their essence and structure are exposed and analyzed in represented work. Diagnosticprogram which gives an opportunity to study individual career potenti...

  13. Potential brachytherapy nuclides of future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the past there were relatively few radionuclides available for brachytherapy. But the situation is rapidly changing with the development of many new sources with properties that may be advantageous in certain clinical situations. In the choice of an acceptable, rather than an ideal radionuclide, it is important to consider the physical dose distribution, radiobiological effectiveness, ease of radiation protection, logistics and cost. Taking into account these factors, a number of radionuclides have been tried and more are being considered for specific type of applications. Presently, 137Cs is the most commonly used radionuclide for intracavitary therapy and 192Ir for interstitial therapy. 125I has more or less replaced 198Au for permanent implants. Clinical studies are being carried out to assess the feasibility of replacing 137Cs with 241Am for intracavitary applications and 125I with 103Pd and/or 169Yb for interstitial permanent implants. Other radionuclides being considered are 75Fe and 145Sm. Neutron induced brachytherapy is a new technique being tried to ensure complete radiation safety. (author). 1 tab

  14. Assessing offshore wind potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quantifying wind potential is a pivotal initial step in developing and articulating a state’s policies and strategies for offshore wind industry development. This is particularly important in the Great Lakes States where lessons from other offshore environments are not directly applicable. This paper presents the framework developed for conducting a preliminary assessment of offshore wind potential. Information on lake bathymetry and wind resources were combined in simulating alternative scenarios of technically feasible turbine construction depths and distance concerns by stakeholders. These yielded estimates of developable offshore wind areas and potential power generation. While concerns about the visibility of turbines from shore reduce the power that can be generated, engineering solutions that increase the depths at which turbines can be sited increase such potential power output. This paper discusses the costs associated with technical limitations on depth and the social costs related to public sentiments about distance from the shoreline, as well as the possible tradeoffs. The results point to a very large untapped energy resource in the Michigan’s Great Lakes, large enough to prompt policy action from the state government. - Highlights: ▶ We build a theoretical framework for modeling offshore wind power production. ▶ Illustration of the impact of technology and social limitations on offshore wind energy development. ▶ Geospatial modeling of the offshore wind potential of the Great Lakes.

  15. Risk assessment - The future trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Many organizations today are faced with cleaning a site or facility, selecting appropriate remedial alternatives, or explaining the potential effects on human health and the environment caused by the releases of toxic compounds into the air, soil, and water, The use of risk assessment (RA) as a management tool is increasing because it offers an integrated approach to the analysis of toxicological, geological, physio-chemical, meteorological, statistical, and biological parameters that must be evaluated in the assessment of potential impacts to human health. The regulatory atmosphere in the 1990s is leaning toward the adoption of further laws requiring the completion of the RA process. Any industry involved in submitting permit applications to Air Quality Management Districts or complying with California's Proposition 65 and AB 2588 will be required to prepare RAs. Several guidance documents are available that support the RA process including the California Site Mitigation Decision Tree Manual published by the State Department of Health Services (DHS), which bases its approach on developing cleanup objectives (Applied Action Levels) on RA. This presentation focuses on the applications RA can have to the petroleum industry and the kinds of data that each case should develop to make maximum use of the RA process

  16. The future of FRMAC assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    FRMAC was born out of circumstances 25 years ago when 17 federal agencies descended on the states with good intention during the Three-Mile Island nuclear power plant incident. At that time it quickly became evident that a better way was needed to support state and local governments in their time of emergency and recovery process. FRMAC's single voice of Federal support coordinates the multiple agencies that respond to a radiological event. Over the years, FRMAC has exercised, evaluated, and honed its ability to quickly respond to the needs of our communities. As the times have changed, FRMAC has expanded its focus from nuclear power plant incidents, to threats of a terrorist radiological dispersal device (RDD), to the unthinkable - an Improvised nuclear device (IND). And just as having the right tools are part of any trade, FRMAC's tool set has and is evolving to meet contemporary challenges - not just to improve the time it takes to collect data and assess the situation, but to provide a quality and comprehensive product that supports a stressed decision maker, responsible for the protection of the public. Innovations in the movement of data and information have changed our everyday lives. So too, FRMAC is capitalizing on industry innovations to improve the flow of information: from the early predictive models, to streamlining the process of getting data out of the field; to improving the time it takes to get assessed products in to the hands of the decision makers. FRMAC is focusing on the future through the digital age of electronic data processing. Public protective action and dose avoidance is the challenge.

  17. FUTURES OPTIONS: UNIVERSE OF POTENTIAL PROFIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teselios Delia

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available A approaching options on futures contracts in the present paper is argued, on one hand, by the great number of their directions for use (in financial speculation, in managing and risk control, etc. and, on the other hand, by the fact that in Romania, nowadays, futures contracts and options represent the main categories of traded financial instruments. Because futures contract, as an underlying asset for options, it is often more liquid and involves more reduced transaction costs than cash product which corresponds to that futures contract, this paper presents a number of information regarding options on futures contracts, which offer a wide range of investment opportunities, being used to protect against adverse price moves in commodity, interest rate, foreign exchange and equity markets. There are presented two assessment models of these contracts, namely: an expansion of the Black_Scholes model published in 1976 by Fischer Black and the binomial model used especially for its flexibility. Likewise, there are presented a series of operations that can be performed using futures options and also arguments in favor of using these types of options.

  18. RANGELAND SEQUESTRATION POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee Spangler; George F. Vance; Gerald E. Schuman; Justin D. Derner

    2012-03-31

    Rangelands occupy approximately half of the world's land area and store greater than 10% of the terrestrial biomass carbon and up to 30% of the global soil organic carbon. Although soil carbon sequestration rates are generally low on rangelands in comparison to croplands, increases in terrestrial carbon in rangelands resulting from management can account for significant carbon sequestration given the magnitude of this land resource. Despite the significance rangelands can play in carbon sequestration, our understanding remains limited. Researchers conducted a literature review to identify sustainably management practices that conserve existing rangeland carbon pools, as well as increase or restore carbon sequestration potentials for this type of ecosystem. The research team also reviewed the impact of grazing management on rangeland carbon dynamics, which are not well understood due to heterogeneity in grassland types. The literature review on the impact of grazing showed a wide variation of results, ranging from positive to negative to no response. On further review, the intensity of grazing appears to be a major factor in controlling rangeland soil organic carbon dynamics. In 2003, researchers conducted field sampling to assess the effect of several drought years during the period 1993-2002. Results suggested that drought can significantly impact rangeland soil organic carbon (SOC) levels, and therefore, carbon sequestration. Resampling was conducted in 2006; results again suggested that climatic conditions may have overridden management effects on SOC due to the ecological lag of the severe drought of 2002. Analysis of grazing practices during this research effort suggested that there are beneficial effects of light grazing compared to heavy grazing and non-grazing with respect to increased SOC and nitrogen contents. In general, carbon storage in rangelands also increases with increased precipitation, although researchers identified threshold levels of

  19. Potential future waste-to-energy systems

    OpenAIRE

    Thorin, Eva; Guziana, Bozena; Song, Han; Jääskeläinen, Ari; Szpadt, Ryszard; Vasilic, Dejan; Ahrens, Thorsten; Anne, Olga; Lõõnik, Jaan

    2012-01-01

    This report discusses potential future systems for waste-to-energy production in the Baltic Sea Region, and especially for the project REMOWE partner regions, the County of Västmanland in Sweden, Northern Savo in Finland, Lower Silesia in Poland, western part of Lithuania and Estonia. The waste-to-energy systems planned for in the partner regions are combustion of municipal solid waste (MSW) and solid recovered fuels from household and industry as well as anaerobic digestion of sewage sludge ...

  20. Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evangelista, P.H.; Kumar, S.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Young, N.E.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of our study was to estimate forest vulnerability and potential distribution of three bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) under current and projected climate conditions for 2020 and 2050. Our study focused on the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis), and pine engraver (Ips pini). This study was conducted across eight states in the Interior West of the US covering approximately 2.2millionkm2 and encompassing about 95% of the Rocky Mountains in the contiguous US. Our analyses relied on aerial surveys of bark beetle outbreaks that occurred between 1991 and 2008. Occurrence points for each species were generated within polygons created from the aerial surveys. Current and projected climate scenarios were acquired from the WorldClim database and represented by 19 bioclimatic variables. We used Maxent modeling technique fit with occurrence points and current climate data to model potential beetle distributions and forest vulnerability. Three available climate models, each having two emission scenarios, were modeled independently and results averaged to produce two predictions for 2020 and two predictions for 2050 for each analysis. Environmental parameters defined by current climate models were then used to predict conditions under future climate scenarios, and changes in different species' ranges were calculated. Our results suggested that the potential distribution for bark beetles under current climate conditions is extensive, which coincides with infestation trends observed in the last decade. Our results predicted that suitable habitats for the mountain pine beetle and pine engraver beetle will stabilize or decrease under future climate conditions, while habitat for the western pine beetle will continue to increase over time. The greatest increase in habitat area was for the western pine beetle, where one climate model predicted a 27% increase by 2050. In contrast, the predicted habitat of the

  1. Neutron sources: Present practice and future potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present capability and future potential of accelerator-based monoenergetic and white neutron sources are outlined in the context of fundamental and applied neutron-nuclear research. The neutron energy range extends from thermal to 500 MeV, and the time domain from steady-state to pico-second pulsed sources. Accelerator technology is summarized, including the production of intense light-ion, heavy-ion and electron beams. Target capabilities are discussed with attention to neutron-producing efficiency and power-handling capabilities. The status of underlying neutron-producing reactions is summarized. The present and future use of neutron sources in: fundamental neutron-nuclear research, nuclear data acquisition, materials damage studies, engineering tests, and biomedical applications are discussed. Emphasis is given to current status, near-term advances well within current technology, and to long-range projections. 90 refs., 4 figs

  2. Estimation of potential evapotranspiration from extraterrestrial radiation, air temperature and humidity to assess future climate change effects on the vegetation of the Northern Great Plains, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominique M.; Symstad, Amy J.; Ferschweiler, Ken; Hobbins, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The potential evapotranspiration (PET) that would occur with unlimited plant access to water is a central driver of simulated plant growth in many ecological models. PET is influenced by solar and longwave radiation, temperature, wind speed, and humidity, but it is often modeled as a function of temperature alone. This approach can cause biases in projections of future climate impacts in part because it confounds the effects of warming due to increased greenhouse gases with that which would be caused by increased radiation from the sun. We developed an algorithm for linking PET to extraterrestrial solar radiation (incoming top-of atmosphere solar radiation), as well as temperature and atmospheric water vapor pressure, and incorporated this algorithm into the dynamic global vegetation model MC1. We tested the new algorithm for the Northern Great Plains, USA, whose remaining grasslands are threatened by continuing woody encroachment. Both the new and the standard temperature-dependent MC1 algorithm adequately simulated current PET, as compared to the more rigorous PenPan model of Rotstayn et al. (2006). However, compared to the standard algorithm, the new algorithm projected a much more gradual increase in PET over the 21st century for three contrasting future climates. This difference led to lower simulated drought effects and hence greater woody encroachment with the new algorithm, illustrating the importance of more rigorous calculations of PET in ecological models dealing with climate change.

  3. Remimazolam: The future of its sedative potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goudra, Basavana Gouda; Singh, Preet Mohinder

    2014-07-01

    Remimazolam (CNS 7056) is a new drug innovation in anesthesia. It combines the properties of two unique drugs already established in anesthesia - Midazolam and remifentanil. It acts on GABA receptors like midazolam and has organ-independent metabolism like remifentanil. It is likely to be the sedative of the future, as preliminary phase II trials have shown minimal residual effects on prolonged infusions. It has potential to be used as a sedative in ICU and as a novel agent for procedural sedation. Unlike most rapidly acting intravenous sedatives available presently, the propensity to cause apnea is very low. Availability of a specific antagonist (flumazenil) adds to its safety even in cases of overdose. The present review discusses remimazolam's potential as a new drug in anesthesia along with the presently available literary evidence. PMID:25191193

  4. Probing quintessence potential with future cosmological surveys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quintessence, a scalar field model, has been proposed to account for the acceleration of the Universe at present. We discuss how accurately quintessence models are discriminated by future cosmological surveys, which include experiments of CMB, galaxy clustering, weak lensing, and the type Ia SNe surveys, by making use of the conventional parameterized dark energy models. We can see clear differences between the thawing and the freezing quintessence models at more than 1σ (2σ) confidence level as long as the present equation of state for quintessence is away from -1 as wX∼>−0.95(−0.90). However, it is found to be difficult to probe the effective mass squared for the potential in thawing models, whose signs are different between the quadratic and the cosine-type potentials. This fact may require us to invent a new estimator to distinguish quintessence models beyond the thawing and the freezing ones

  5. Asian water futures - Multi scenarios, models and criteria assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Satoh, Y.; Burek, P.; Wada, Y.; M. Flörke; Eisner, S.; Hanasaki, N.; Kahil, T.; Tramberend, S.; Fischer, G; Wiberg, D.

    2016-01-01

    A better understanding of the current and future availability of water resources is essential for the implementation of the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Long-term/efficient strategies for coping with current and potential future water-related challenges are urgently required. Although Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were develop for the impact assessment of climate change, very few assessments have yet used the SSP...

  6. Application of the coastal generalized ecosystem model (CGEM) to assess the impacts of a potential future climate scenario on northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mechanistic hypoxia models for the northern Gulf of Mexico are being used to guide policy goals for Mississippi River nutrient loading reductions. However, to date, these models have not examined the effects of both nutrient loads and future climate. Here, we simulate a future c...

  7. Colorado Plateau Rapid Ecoregion Assessment Management Question F2: Where are the areas of potential future encroachment from this invasive species?

    Data.gov (United States)

    Bureau of Land Management, Department of the Interior — This map shows the current distribution of major invasive vegetation species (primarily cheatgrass and tamarisk), and predicted near-term future distribution of...

  8. NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems Planning and Potential Future Systems Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakrajsek, June F.; Woerner, Dave F.; Cairns-Gallimore, Dirk; Johnson, Stephen G.; Qualls, Louis

    2016-01-01

    The goal of NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) Program is to make RPS ready and available to support the exploration of the solar system in environments where the use of conventional solar or chemical power generation is impractical or impossible to meet the needs of the missions. To meet this goal, the RPS Program, working closely with the Department of Energy, performs mission and system studies (such as the recently released Nuclear Power Assessment Study), assesses the readiness of promising technologies to infuse in future generators, assesses the sustainment of key RPS capabilities and knowledge, forecasts and tracks the Program's budgetary needs, and disseminates current information about RPS to the community of potential users. This process has been refined and used to determine the current content of the RPS Program's portfolio. This portfolio currently includes an effort to mature advanced thermoelectric technology for possible integration into an enhanced Multi-Mission Radioisotope Generator (eMMRTG), sustainment and production of the currently deployed MMRTG, and technology investments that could lead to a future Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG). This paper describes the program planning processes that have been used, the currently available MMRTG, and one of the potential future systems, the eMMRTG.

  9. Assessment on the rates and potentials of soil organic carbon sequestration in agricultural lands in Japan using a process-based model and spatially explicit land-use change inventories - Part 2: Future potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yagasaki, Y.; Shirato, Y.

    2014-08-01

    Future potentials of the sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural lands in Japan were estimated using a simulation system we recently developed to simulate SOC stock change at country-scale under varying land-use change, climate, soil, and agricultural practices, in a spatially explicit manner. Simulation was run from 1970 to 2006 with historical inventories, and subsequently to 2020 with future scenarios of agricultural activity comprised of various agricultural policy targets advocated by the Japanese government. Furthermore, the simulation was run subsequently until 2100 while forcing no temporal changes in land-use and agricultural activity to investigate duration and course of SOC stock change at country scale. A scenario with an increased rate of organic carbon input to agricultural fields by intensified crop rotation in combination with the suppression of conversion of agricultural lands to other land-use types was found to have a greater reduction of CO2 emission by enhanced soil carbon sequestration, but only under a circumstance in which the converted agricultural lands will become settlements that were considered to have a relatively lower rate of organic carbon input. The size of relative reduction of CO2 emission in this scenario was comparable to that in another contrasting scenario (business-as-usual scenario of agricultural activity) in which a relatively lower rate of organic matter input to agricultural fields was assumed in combination with an increased rate of conversion of the agricultural fields to unmanaged grasslands through abandonment. Our simulation experiment clearly demonstrated that net-net-based accounting on SOC stock change, defined as the differences between the emissions and removals during the commitment period and the emissions and removals during a previous period (base year or base period of Kyoto Protocol), can be largely influenced by variations in future climate. Whereas baseline-based accounting, defined

  10. Safety assessments for potential exposures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Safety Assessment of potential exposures have been carried out in major practices, namely: industrial radiography, gamma irradiators and electron accelerators used in industry and research, and radiotherapy. This paper focuses on reviewing safety assessment methodologies and using developed software to analyse radiological accidents, also review, and discuss these past accidents.The primary objective of the assessment is to assess the adequacy of planned or existing measures for protection and safety and to identify any additional measures that should be put in place. As such, both routine use of the source and the probability and magnitude of potential exposures arising from accidents or incidents should be considered. Where the assessment indicates that there is a realistic possibility of an accident affecting workers or members of the public or having consequences for the environment, the registrant or licensee should prepare a suitable emergency plan. A safety assessment for normal operation addresses all the conditions under which the radiation source operates as expected, including all phases of the lifetime of the source. Due account needs to be taken of the different factors and conditions that will apply during non-operational phases, such as installation, commissioning and maintenance. (author)

  11. Impacts of Potential Future Droughts on Electricity Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, E.; Wigmosta, M. S.; Tidwell, V. C.; King, C. W.

    2013-12-01

    In 2011, the state of Texas experienced the worst single-year drought on record. This recent extreme climate event raised questions as to how future droughts might impact ERCOT operations. To improve our understanding of potential risks of electricity generation curtailment due to drought, an impact analysis was performed with a series of modeling tools including climate downscaling, competitive water-use calculator, hydrologic model for various hydrologic processes, and power-plant specific models. This presentation will demonstrate the predicted effects of potential future droughts on power generation at a local level of the USGS 8-digit watersheds and power plants within the context of long-term transmission planning. The study identified three potential drought scenarios (single- and multiple-year droughts) based on historical drought records and projected climate changes from the GFDL and the PCM global climate models, for greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 defined by the IPCC. The potential impacts under these three drought scenarios were evaluated with a hydrologic model constructed for the Texas-Gulf river basin. The Texas-Gulf hydrologic model incorporates competitive water uses, climate forcing data corresponding to each of drought scenarios, and 125 reservoirs that are currently supporting water withdrawal for various sectors and cooling water for power generation. The hydrologic responses to drought scenarios predicted for each of the USGS 8-digit watersheds (such as evapotranspiration, soil water, water yield from watersheds, stream flow, and water storage in reservoirs) provide a bases to assess if power plants potentially at risk of being of derated and watersheds are vulnerable to droughts. The key findings from this study will help to improve understanding of spatial distribution of power plants at risk and vulnerable watersheds as well as the scale of potential reduction of electricity generation. Beyond impacts to the existing

  12. Global Energy Assessment. Toward a Sustainable Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johansson, T.B.; Nakicenovic, N.; Patwardhan, A.; Gomez-Echeverri, L. (eds.)

    2012-11-01

    The Global Energy Assessment (GEA) brings together over 300 international researchers to provide an independent, scientifically based, integrated and policy-relevant analysis of current and emerging energy issues and options. It has been peer-reviewed anonymously by an additional 200 international experts. The GEA assesses the major global challenges for sustainable development and their linkages to energy; the technologies and resources available for providing energy services; future energy systems that address the major challenges; and the policies and other measures that are needed to realize transformational change toward sustainable energy futures. The GEA goes beyond existing studies on energy issues by presenting a comprehensive and integrated analysis of energy challenges, opportunities and strategies, for developing, industrialized and emerging economies. This volume is an invaluable resource for energy specialists and technologists in all sectors (academia, industry and government) as well as policymakers, development economists and practitioners in international organizations and national governments.

  13. Onshore wind energy potential over Iberia: present and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rochinha, Carlos A.; Santos, João A.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2014-05-01

    Onshore grid-connected wind power generation has been explored for more than three decades in the Iberian Peninsula. Further, increasing attention has been devoted to renewable energy sources in a climate change context. While advantages of wind energy are widely recognized, its distribution is not spatially homogeneous and not uniform throughout the year. Hence, understanding these spatial-temporal distributions is critical in power system planning. The present study aims at assessing the potential power output estimated from 10 m wind components simulated by a regional climate model (CCLM), driven by ERA40 reanalysis. Datasets are available on a grid with a high spatial resolution (approximately 20 km) and over a 40-yr period (1961-2000). Furthermore, several target sites, located in areas with high installed wind generation capacity, are selected for local-to-regional scale assessments. The results show that potential wind power is higher over northern Iberia, mostly in Cantabria and Galicia, while Andalucía and Cataluña record the lowest values. With respect to the intra-annual variability, summer is by far the season with the lowest potential energy outputs. Furthermore, the inter-annual variability reveals an overall downward long-term trend over the 40-yr period, particularly in the winter time series. A CCLM transient experiment, forced by the SRES A1B emission scenario, is also discussed for a future period (2041-2070), after a model validation/calibration process (bias corrections). Significant changes in the wind power potential are projected for the future throughout Iberia, but their magnitude largely depends on the locations. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER- 019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

  14. The Future Potential of Waver Power in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirko Previsic; Jeff Epler; Maureen Hand; Donna Heimiller; Walter Short; Kelly Eurek

    2012-09-20

    The theoretical ocean wave energy resource potential exceeds 50% of the annual domestic energy demand of the United States, is located close to coastal population centers, and, although variable in nature, may be more consistent and predictable than some other renewable generation technologies. As a renewable electricity generation technology, ocean wave energy offers a low air pollutant option for diversifying the U.S. electricity generation portfolio. Furthermore, the output characteristics of these technologies may complement other renewable technologies. This study addresses the following: (1) The theoretical, technical and practical potential for electricity generation from wave energy (2) The present lifecycle cost profile (Capex, Opex, and Cost of Electricity) of wave energy conversion technology at a reference site in Northern California at different plant scales (3) Cost of electricity variations as a function of deployment site, considering technical, geo-spatial and and electric grid constraints (4) Technology cost reduction pathways (5) Cost reduction targets at which the technology will see significant deployment within US markets, explored through a series of deployment scenarios RE Vision Consulting, LLC (RE Vision), engaged in various analyses to establish current and future cost profiles for marine hydrokinetic (MHK) technologies, quantified the theoretical, technical and practical resource potential, performed electricity market assessments and developed deployment scenarios. RE Vision was supported in this effort by NREL analysts, who compiled resource information, performed analysis using the ReEDSa model to develop deployment scenarios, and developed a simplified assessment of the Alaska and Hawaii electricity markets.

  15. Potential Future Igneous Activity at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Location, timing, and volumes of post-Miocene volcanic activity, along with expert judgment, provide the basis for assessing the probability of future volcanism intersecting a proposed repository for nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Analog studies of eruptive centers in the region that may represent the style and extent of possible future igneous activity at Yucca Mountain have aided in defining the consequence scenarios for intrusion into and eruption through a proposed repository. Modeling of magmatic processes related to magma/proposed repository interactions has been used to assess the potential consequences of a future igneous event through a proposed repository at Yucca Mountain. Results of work to date indicate future igneous activity in the Yucca Mountain region has a very low probability of intersecting the proposed repository. Probability of a future event intersecting a proposed repository at Yucca Mountain is approximately 1.7 x 10-8 per year. Since completion of the Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) in 1996, anomalies representing potential buried volcanic centers have been identified from aeromagnetic surveys. A re-assessment of the hazard is currently underway to evaluate the probability of intersection in light of new information and to estimate the probability of one or more volcanic conduits located in the proposed repository along a dike that intersects the proposed repository. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission regulations for siting and licensing a proposed repository require that the consequences of a disruptive event (igneous event) with annual probability greater than 1 x 10-8 be evaluated. Two consequence scenarios are considered: (1) igneous intrusion-poundwater transport case and (2) volcanic eruptive case. These scenarios equate to a dike or dike swarm intersecting repository drifts containing waste packages, formation of a conduit leading to a volcanic eruption through the repository that carries the contents of the

  16. Assessing potential future environmental legal events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonn, B. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Petrich, C. [The Ernst and Yound Center for Business Innovation, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1997-10-28

    This report addresses the topic of environmental citizenship in the United States. The term refers to responsibilities each of us have with respect to helping our communities and nation make sound environmental decisions. This research centers on the citizens and what we ought to be doing, as opposed to what the government ought to be doing for us, to improve environmental citizenship. This report examines four central questions: What are the requirements (i.e., responsibilities) of citizenship vis-a-vis environmental decision- making processes; what constraints limit people`s ability to meet these requirements; what does our form of governance do to help or hinder in meeting these requirements; and what recommendations can be put forth to improve public participation in environmental decision making?

  17. The Future Potential of Internet of Things

    OpenAIRE

    Aelita Skaržauskienė; Marius Kalinauskas

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To define the Internet of things and to analyze it as a background for the internet of services.Design/methodology/approach: The article discusses potential possibilities and problematic issues concerning the Internet of things (IoT) and Internet of services (IoS). The debates concerning IoT and its possible application fields have continued for more than ten years. The technological background is there and the fields of application are broad. However, there is still a lack of unders...

  18. Potential future impacts of climatic change on the Great Plains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A synopsis is provided of approaches to impact studies in the Great Plains, findings from studies of future impacts are summarized, and opportunities for enhancing understanding of future impacts are discussed. Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources, forestry, recreation/tourism, and energy are summarized. Impact analyses need to look more rigorously at variability in climate, the probabilities of various climatic conditions, and the sensitivity of social and economic activities to climatic variability. Most economic impact studies have assumed no adaptive behavior on the part of economic decision makers. Credible impact assessments require an improved understanding of the sensitivity and adaptability of sectors to climatic conditions, particularly variability. The energy sector in the Great Plains region is likely to be more sensitive to political developments in the Middle East than to climatic variability and change. Speculation and analysis of climate impacts have focused on supply conditions and demands, yet the sector is more keenly sensitive to policy implications of climatic change, such as the potential for fossil fuel taxes or other legislative or pricing constraints. 28 refs

  19. VOICE OVER INTERNET PROTOCOL (VOIP: FUTURE POTENTIAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepti Kumari

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available VoIP (voice over IP delivers standard voice over telephone services over Internet Protocol (IP. VoIP is the technology of digitizing sound, compressing it, breaking it up into data packets, and sending it over an IP (internet protocol network where it is reassembled, decompressed, and converted back into an analog wave form. Gateways are the key component required to facilitate IP Telephony. A gateway is used to bridge the traditional circuit switched PSTN with the packet switched Internet. The paper covers software, hardware and protocol requirements followed by weighing the VoIP advantages such as low cost, portability, free and advanced features, bandwidth efficiency, call recording and monitoring against the VoIP disadvantages such as power dependency, quality of voice and service, security, and reliability. With ever increasing internet penetration and better broadband connectivity, VoIP is going to expand further with businesses already using VoIP standalone or in a hybrid format, although our focus and scope here remains VoIP. Mobile VoIP, an infant with less than 4% market share, has so far been focusing on increasing active subscriptions without a sustainable revenue model, but has the potential and is going to see tussle with static VoIP for space in days ahead.

  20. Voice over Internet Protocol (VOIP: Future Potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ms. Deepti

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available VoIP (voice over IP delivers standard voice over telephone services over Internet Protocol (IP. VoIP is the technology of digitizing sound, compressing it, breaking it up into data packets, and sending it over an IP (internet protocol network where it is reassembled, decompressed, and converted back into an analog wave form. Gateways are the key component required to facilitate IP Telephony. A gateway is used to bridge the traditional circuit switched PSTN with the packet switched Internet. The paper covers software, hardware and protocol requirements followed by weighing the VoIP advantages such as low cost, portability, free and advanced features, bandwidth efficiency, call recording and monitoring against the VoIP disadvantages such as power dependency, quality of voice and service, security, and reliability. With ever increasing internet penetration and better broadband connectivity, VoIP is going to expand further with businesses already using VoIP standalone or in a hybrid format, although our focus and scope here remains VoIP. Mobile VoIP, an infant with less than 4% market share, has so far been focusing on increasing active subscriptions without a sustainable revenue model, but has the potential and is going to see tussle with static VoIP for space in days ahead.

  1. Assessment of wind energy potential in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhu Rong; Zhang De; Wang Yuedong; Xing Xuhuang; Li Zechun

    2009-01-01

    China wind atlas was made by numerical simulation and the wind energy potential in China was calculated. The model system for wind energy resource assessment was set up based on Canadian Wind Energy Simulating Toolkit (WEST) and the simulating method was as follows. First, the weather classes were obtained depend on meteorological data of 30 years. Then, driven by the initial meteorological field produced by each weather class, the meso-scale model ran for the distribution of wind energy resources according each weather class condition one by one. Finally, averaging all the modeling output weighted by the occurrence frequency of each weather class, the annual mean distribution of wind energy resources was worked out. Compared the simulated wind energy potential with other results from several ac-tivities and studies for wind energy resource assessment, it is found that the simulated wind energy potential in mainland of China is 3 times that from the second and the third investigations for wind energy resources by CMA, and is similar to the wind energy potential obtained by NREL in Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment (SWERA) project. The simulated offshore wind energy potential of China seems smaller than the true value. According to the simulated results of CMA and considering lots of limited factors to wind energy development, the final conclusion can be obtained that the wind energy availability in China is 700~1 200 GW, in which 600~1 000 GW is in mainland and 100~200 GW is on offshore, and wind power will become the important part of energy composition in future.

  2. Assessing future trends in indoor air quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Several national and international health organizations have derived concentration levels below which adverse effects on men are not expected or levels below which the excess risk for individuals is less than a specified value. For every priority pollutant indoor concentrations below this limit are considered healthy. The percentage of Dutch homes exceeding such a limit is taken as a measure of indoor air quality for that component. The present and future indoor air quality of the Dutch housing stock is described for fourteen air pollutants. The highest percentages are scored by radon, environmental tobacco smoke, nitrogen dioxide from unvented combustion, and the potential presence of housedust mite and mould allergen in damp houses. Although the trend for all priority pollutants is downward the most serious ones remain high in the coming decades if no additional measures will be instituted

  3. 10 CFR 766.107 - Prepayment of future Special Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Prepayment of future Special Assessments 766.107 Section 766.107 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY URANIUM ENRICHMENT DECONTAMINATION AND DECOMMISSIONING FUND; PROCEDURES FOR SPECIAL ASSESSMENT OF DOMESTIC UTILITIES Procedures for Special Assessment § 766.107 Prepayment of future Special Assessments DOE...

  4. Assessing the future of green building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Raymond J.

    2005-04-01

    As the realities of resource depletion and global environmental degradation become more evident, we can anticipate a maturing and strengthening of the public's concern and knowledge on environmental issues. This will translate into an expectation for greater environmental responsibility and, as with other sectors, the building industry will be increasingly scrutinized for its environmental actions. The adoption of environmental strategies has been accelerated by the emergence of building environmental assessment methods that have provided both a definition and common language for green buildings as well as a means of communicating performance improvements. Whereas the current focus is on ``green'' design-reducing or mitigating the environmental consequences of buildings-the future concerns will embrace mitigation, adaptation to the new conditions and restoring previous adversely impacted regions and human settlements. This presentation will provide an overview of the evolution of green building practices to set a context for understanding emerging issues in building acoustics. Since the adoption of green building practices is a function of the context that shapes political and public priorities, the presentation compares and contrasts several short and long-term scenarios some certain, others more speculative and their direct and indirect consequences for environmental progress building design.

  5. Assessing future changes in pan-European environmental flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laize, C.; Hannah, D. M.

    2011-12-01

    The potential river flow-driven impact of change on aquatic and riparian ecosystems at the pan-European scale under various climatological and development scenarios was assessed using a methodology based conceptually on the Range of Variability Approach (RVA) using the Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA): a desk-top technique for assessing if environmental flow requirements. This paper presents an adaptation of the IHA approach using monthly flows. European and Mediterranean river networks were modelled as ~35,000 cells (0.5° longitude x 0.5° latitude). For each cell, modelled monthly flows were generated for an ensemble of 10 future climate change scenarios. These scenarios consist of combinations of two climate scenarios (IPCM4 and MIMR) and four socio-economic water-use scenarios (each with a main driver of economy, policy, security, or sustainability), projected for 2050s. IHA-styled statistics were calculated. By tailoring the RVA, acceptable baseline environmental flow ranges and departures from these of the projected hydrological regimes were assessed and coded using a traffic-light system (green for environmental flows met, amber minor variation, red major variation). For the first time, the results show spatial patterns of flow change and associated potential river ecosystem impacts across the wider European continent. Importantly, the findings indicate that climate change may be a more influential driver than water-use change in determining future river ecosystem health . Patterns were also investigated against broad basin types to identify which are most or least at risk.

  6. Terahertz Quantum Cascade Lasers - The Past, Present, and Potential Future

    OpenAIRE

    Linfield, EH; Davies, AG; Dean, P

    2015-01-01

    Since their first demonstration in 2002, the development of terahertz frequency quantum cascade lasers has been extremely rapid. We overview some of the advances that have taken place and which have made the terahertz quantum cascade laser such a ubiquitous source. We also consider potential future directions for terahertz quantum cascade laser technology, including its use in satellite-borne instrumentation for future Earth observation and planetary science missions.

  7. The Potential Role for Fusion Power in Future Energy Markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: In order to explore the potential role for fusion in a future energy market, and clarify the conditions under which fusion may be important in different world regions, a global energy scenario model, based on the model generator TIMES supplied by the International Energy Agency, has been developed. The model covers the whole of this century and includes fusion technologies. Results are reported here. (author)

  8. The Physics Potential of Future Long Baseline Neutrino Oscillation Experiments

    OpenAIRE

    Lindner, M.

    2002-01-01

    We discuss in detail different future long baseline neutrino oscillation setups and we show the remarkable potential for very precise measurements of mass splittings and mixing angles. Furthermore it will be possible to make precise tests of coherent forward scattering and MSW effects, which allow to determine the sign of $\\Delta m^2$. Finally strong limits or measurements of leptonic CP violation will be possible, which is very interesting since it is most likely connected to the baryon asym...

  9. Quantitative health impact assessment: current practice and future directions

    OpenAIRE

    Veerman, Lennert; Barendregt, Jan; Mackenbach, Johan

    2005-01-01

    textabstractSTUDY OBJECTIVE: To assess what methods are used in quantitative health impact assessment (HIA), and to identify areas for future research and development. DESIGN: HIA reports were assessed for (1) methods used to quantify effects of policy on determinants of health (exposure impact assessment) and (2) methods used to quantify health outcomes resulting from changes in exposure to determinants (outcome assessment). MAIN RESULTS: Of 98 prospective HIA studies, 17 reported quantitati...

  10. Asian water futures - Multi scenarios, models and criteria assessment -

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Wada, Yoshihide; Flrörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Kahil, Taher; Tramberend, Sylvia; Fischer, Günther; Wiberg, David

    2016-04-01

    A better understanding of the current and future availability of water resources is essential for the implementation of the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Long-term/efficient strategies for coping with current and potential future water-related challenges are urgently required. Although Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were develop for the impact assessment of climate change, very few assessments have yet used the SSPs to assess water resources. Then the IIASA Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS), developed a set of water use scenarios consistent with RCPs and SSPs and applying the latest climate changes scenarios. Here this study focuses on results for Asian countries for the period 2010-2050. We present three conceivable future pathways of Asian water resources, determined by feasible combinations of two RCPs and three SSPs. Such a scenario approach provides valuable insights towards identifying appropriate strategies as gaps between a "scenario world" and reality. In addition, for the assessment of future water resources a multi-criteria analysis is applied. A classification system for countries and watershed that consists of two broad dimensions: (i) economic and institutional adaptive capacity, (ii) hydrological complexity. The latter is composed of several sub-indexes including total renewable water resources per capita, the ratio of water demand to renewable water resource, variability of runoff and dependency ratio to external. Furthermore, this analysis uses a multi-model approach to estimate runoff and discharge using 5 GCMs and 5 global hydrological models (GHMs). Three of these GHMs calculate water use based on a consistent set of scenarios in addition to water availability. As a result, we have projected hot spots of water scarcity in Asia and their spatial and temporal change. For example, in a scenario based on SSP2 and RCP6.0, by 2050, in total 2.1 billion people

  11. Modeling and assessment of future IGCC plant concepts with CO2 capture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The thesis focuses on the assessment of efficiency potential of future IGCC plants with CO2 capture. Starting point is a comprehensive analysis (thermodynamic, economic and exergy) of a state of the art IGCC. Additionally, five future IGCC concepts are proposed and evaluated for their efficiency potential in the mid- and long-term. The concepts showed significantly higher efficiencies up to approximately 60% and enable an almost CO2-free operation.

  12. Is Environmental Impact Assessment fulfilling its potential?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2014-01-01

    One of the topics receiving much attention in recent years is climate change and the potential of its integration in impact assessment, both in terms of achieving mitigation and adaptation. Renewable energy projects are part of the efforts to mitigate climate change, replacing the use of fossil...... fuel with CO2-neutral energy sources. A variety of these projects are subject to environmental impact assessment (EIA), which raises the following questions: What role does an impact assessment play? When is the project environmentally friendly? How are climate change-related impacts assessed...

  13. GIS Based Analysis of future district heating potential in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steffen; Möller, Bernd

    2012-01-01

    The physical placement of buildings is important when determining the future potential for district heating (DH). Good locations for DH are mainly determined by having a large heat demand within a certain area combined with an access to local resources. In Denmark, the placement of buildings and...... finding the heat production cost within these areas, and adding transmission and distribution costs, the economic feasibility of supplying areas with DH is found. The result of the analysis is that the DH potential differs from area to area. In many areas it is economically feasible to expand DH, while in...... others production costs and grid losses should be reduced for DH expansions to be feasible. Including transmission and distribution costs into the calculation, gives an idea about where the boundaries for DH are. These boundaries are not static, but changes under different conditions....

  14. Environmental assessment process needs and future directions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The environmental assessment process as legislatively mandated by the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) constitutes a double-edged sword as regards the successful management and disposal of radioactive waste. On the one hand, NEPA requires identification and disclosure of the environmental and societal consequences of a given major federal action, consideration of alternatives and/or mitigative measures leading to the same end result, a balancing of costs and benefits, and provides for and encourages public participation in the decision-making process regarding the proposed action(s). On the other hand, public participation supported by judicial decisions, based more upon procedural than substantive issues, may delay, alter, or indeed prohibit a proposed course of action. If the cognizant federal agencies (DOE and NRC in the radioactive waste area) comply with both the spirit and the letter of NEPA a framework for the successful management of radioactive wastes on all types can be developed. If however, these agencies are less than earnest in their NEPA compliance actions or if public opposition is backed by overzealous court action, any radioactive waste management/disposal action (however technically sound) can be hoisted upon a petard from which it may not be freed until well into the next century

  15. A generic hydroeconomic model to assess future water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice

    2015-04-01

    We developed a generic hydroeconomic model able to confront future water supply and demand on a large scale, taking into account man-made reservoirs. The assessment is done at the scale of river basins, using only globally available data; the methodology can thus be generalized. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources. The available quantity of water at each site is computed using the following information: runoff is taken from the outputs of CNRM climate model (Dubois et al., 2010), reservoirs are located using Aquastat, and the sub-basin flow-accumulation area of each reservoir is determined based on a Digital Elevation Model (HYDRO1k). On the demand side, agricultural and domestic demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. For the agricultural sector, globally available data on irrigated areas and crops are combined in order to determine irrigated crops localization. Then, crops irrigation requirements are computed for the different stages of the growing season using Allen (1998) method with Hargreaves potential evapotranspiration. Irrigation water economic value is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. Potential irrigated and rainfed yields are taken from LPJmL (Blondeau et al., 2007), or from FAOSTAT by making simple assumptions on yield ratios. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The method consists in building three-blocks inverse demand functions where volume limits of the blocks evolve with the level of GDP per capita. The value of water along the demand curve is determined from price-elasticity, price and demand data from the literature, using the point-expansion method, and from water costs data. Then projected demands are confronted to future water availability. Operating rules of the reservoirs and water allocation between demands are based on

  16. Database for potential hazards from future volcanic eruptions in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Melissa N.; Ramsey, David W.; Miller, C. Dan

    2011-01-01

    More than 500 volcanic vents have been identified in the State of California. At least 76 of these vents have erupted, some repeatedly, during the past 10,000 yr. Past volcanic activity has ranged in scale and type from small rhyolitic and basaltic eruptions through large catastrophic rhyolitic eruptions. Sooner or later, volcanoes in California will erupt again, and they could have serious impacts on the health and safety of the State's citizens as well as on its economy. This report describes the nature and probable distribution of potentially hazardous volcanic phenomena and their threat to people and property. It includes hazard-zonation maps that show areas relatively likely to be affected by future eruptions in California. This digital release contains information from maps of potential hazards from future volcanic eruptions in the state of California, published as Plate 1 in U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 1847. The main component of this digital release is a spatial database prepared using geographic information systems (GIS) applications. This release also contains links to files to view or print the map plate, main report text, and accompanying hazard tables from Bulletin 1847. It should be noted that much has been learned about the ages of eruptive events in the State of California since the publication of Bulletin 1847 in 1989. For the most up to date information on the status of California volcanoes, please refer to the U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Hazards Program website.

  17. The future of human rights impact assessments of trade agreements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Walker, S.M.

    2009-01-01

    The Future of Human Rights Impact Assessments of Trade Agreements develops a methodology for human rights impact assessments of trade agreements and considers whether there is any value in using the methodology on a sustained basis to ensure that the human dimensions of international trade are taken

  18. Flow and Noise Control: Review and Assessment of Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Russell H.; Choudhari, Meelan M.; Joslin, Ronald D.

    2002-01-01

    Technologies for developing radically new aerovehicles that would combine quantum leaps in cost, safety, and performance benefits with environmental friendliness have appeared on the horizon. This report provides both an assessment of the current state-of-the-art in flow and noise control and a vision for the potential gains to be made, in terms of performance benefit for civil and military aircraft and a unique potential for noise reduction, via future advances in flow and noise technologies. This report outlines specific areas of research that will enable the breakthroughs necessary to bring this vision to reality. Recent developments in many topics within flow and noise control are reviewed. The flow control overview provides succinct summaries of various approaches for drag reduction and improved maneuvering. Both exterior and interior noise problems are examined, including dominant noise sources, physics of noise generation and propagation, and both established and proposed concepts for noise reduction. Synergy between flow and noise control is a focus and, more broadly, the need to pursue research in a more concurrent approach involving multiple disciplines. Also discussed are emerging technologies such as nanotechnology that may have a significant impact on the progress of flow and noise control.

  19. Beyond the MEGA BORG: The future of cooperative damage assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prespill planning and coordination are the major requirements of industry and government to ensure future cooperative natural resource damage assessments (NRDA). Since oil spills most often occur without warning, both parties must be prepared prior to an oil spill into the environment. Federal and State co-trustees should enter into a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to ensure cooperation and coordination among trustees in all NRDA activities. The MOU should provide the framework whereby each trustee's resource interests can be represented. Ideally, MOUs should be prepared during the prespill planning process, although the MEGA BORG MOU was prepared soon after the actual discharge. The establishment of co-trustee working groups will foster the positive working relationships necessary in cooperative NRDAs. The trustees should identify all potential co-trustees in a given area and agree on a mechanism for trustee notification. Criteria for the rapid designation of the Lead Administrative Trustee and approaches for coordination with response agencies and potential responsible parties (PRPs) need to be developed. Most importantly, the trustees should identify PRPs and invite their participation in the prespill planning process

  20. Potential effect of future climate changes on productivity of selected crops in Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brzóska Barbara

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Potential effect of future climate changes on productivity of selected crops in Poland. Future projections of selected climate indices have been used to assess potential effects of climate changes on productivity of selected crops in Poland. CMIP5 global climate models’ results for the future period (2006-2035 and historical one (1981-2010 are used in the study. Models predict decrease in count of days with extreme low temperatures and increase in count of days with extreme high temperatures. An increase in the number of days with very heavy precipitation is also predicted. Not all climate change effects have negative impact on crop productivity in Poland but all of them confirm requirements to put into practice mitigation and adaptation strategies for Poland’s agriculture.

  1. Cyto- and genotoxicological assessment and functional characterization of N-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone-acrylic acid-based copolymeric hydrogels with potential for future use in wound healing applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirf, Dominik; Devery, Sinead M [Department of Life and Physical Science, Athlone Institute of Technology (Ireland); Higginbotham, Clement L [Materials Research Institute, Athlone Institute of Technology (Ireland); Rowan, Neil J, E-mail: sdevery@ait.i, E-mail: dkirf@ait.i, E-mail: chigginbotham@ait.i, E-mail: nrowan@ait.i [Department of Nursing and Health Science, Athlone Institute of Technology (Ireland)

    2010-06-01

    This study investigated the toxicity of N-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone-acrylic acid copolymer hydrogels crosslinked with ethylene glycol dimethacrylate or poly(ethylene glycol) dimethacrylate. There is a pressing need to establish the toxicity status of these new copolymers because they may find applications in future wound healing processes. Investigations revealed that the capacity of these hydrogels for swelling permitted the retention of high amounts of water yet still maintaining structural integrity. Reverse phase HPLC analysis suggested that unreacted monomeric base material was efficiently removed post-polymerization by applying an additional purification process. Subsequently, in vitro toxicity testing was performed utilizing direct and indirect contact exposure of the polymers to human keratinocytes (HaCaT) and human hepatoma (HepG2) cells. No indication of significant cell death was observed using the established MTT, neutral red (NR) and fluorescence-based toxicity endpoint indicators. In addition, the alkaline Comet assay showed no genotoxic effects following cell exposure to hydrogel extracts. Investigations at the nucleotide level using the Ames mutagenicity assay demonstrated no evidence of mutagenic activity associated with the polymers. Findings from this study demonstrated that these hydrogels are non-cytotoxic and further work can be carried out to investigate their potential as a wound-healing device that will impact positively on patient health and well-being.

  2. Cyto- and genotoxicological assessment and functional characterization of N-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone-acrylic acid-based copolymeric hydrogels with potential for future use in wound healing applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study investigated the toxicity of N-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone-acrylic acid copolymer hydrogels crosslinked with ethylene glycol dimethacrylate or poly(ethylene glycol) dimethacrylate. There is a pressing need to establish the toxicity status of these new copolymers because they may find applications in future wound healing processes. Investigations revealed that the capacity of these hydrogels for swelling permitted the retention of high amounts of water yet still maintaining structural integrity. Reverse phase HPLC analysis suggested that unreacted monomeric base material was efficiently removed post-polymerization by applying an additional purification process. Subsequently, in vitro toxicity testing was performed utilizing direct and indirect contact exposure of the polymers to human keratinocytes (HaCaT) and human hepatoma (HepG2) cells. No indication of significant cell death was observed using the established MTT, neutral red (NR) and fluorescence-based toxicity endpoint indicators. In addition, the alkaline Comet assay showed no genotoxic effects following cell exposure to hydrogel extracts. Investigations at the nucleotide level using the Ames mutagenicity assay demonstrated no evidence of mutagenic activity associated with the polymers. Findings from this study demonstrated that these hydrogels are non-cytotoxic and further work can be carried out to investigate their potential as a wound-healing device that will impact positively on patient health and well-being.

  3. Future physics potential of CMS Phase II detector

    CERN Document Server

    Pozzobon, Nicola

    2015-01-01

    To extend the LHC physics program, it is foreseen to operate the LHC in the future with an unprecedented high luminosity. To maintain the experiment’s physics potential in such harsh environment, the detector will need to be upgraded. At the same time the detector acceptance will be extended and new features such as a L1 track trigger will be implemented. Simulation studies evaluated the performance of the new, proposed detector components in comparison to the present detector with the expected aging after 1000 fb$^{-1}$. The impact of the expected Phase II performance on representative physics channels is studied. The sensitivity to find new physics beyond the SM is significantly improved and will allow to extend the SUSY reach, search for dark matter and exotic long-lived signatures. Precision Higgs and standard model measurements will gain substantially due to the improved performance.

  4. Sensitivity of Mediterranean groundwater resources to potential climate futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartmann, Andreas; Gleeson, Tom; Wagener, Thorsten

    2014-05-01

    A large fraction of the Mediterranean water supply originates from karst aquifers that evolved through the dissolution of carbonate rock. Climate simulations indicate that the Mediterranean will experience a strong increase in temperature and a significant decrease in precipitation within the next 100 years. To be prepared, policy-makers need quantitative and reliable estimates of potential changes to karst water resources. In this study we present the result of a very first attempt to quantify karst water resources over the whole Mediterranean region. Instead of considering groundwater volumes, we consider the flux of water into the aquifer, called groundwater recharge, as a useful indicator for groundwater sustainability. We developed a process-based karst recharge model that is driven by large-scale meteorological observations or downscaled climate scenarios. Using a new metric for quantifying the sensitivity of recharge to climatic changes (termed recharge elasticity) we can explore the sensitivity of Mediterranean karstic groundwater resources to future climatic boundary conditions.

  5. Future perspectives and potential implications of cardiac myocyte apoptosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haunstetter, A; Izumo, S

    2000-02-01

    Recent advances in the understanding of the molecular mechanisms of apoptosis has gained increasing interest in the cardiovascular research community. Apoptotic myocyte loss has been detected in different cardiac disease states such as ischemic heart disease and congestive heart failure. In addition, some evidence for the molecular mechanisms in cardiac myocyte apoptosis has been evolving, although at present the implications thereof for clinical cardiac disease are not known in most of the cases. Based on these new insights, it is the intention of this article to highlight some topics in apoptosis research that might be of particular interest to define the future role and potentials of new therapeutic approaches aimed at preventing myocyte apoptosis. PMID:10728403

  6. GIS based analysis of future district heating potential in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steffen; Möller, Bernd

    2013-01-01

    The physical placement of buildings is important when determining the potential for DH (district heating). Good locations for DH are mainly determined by having both a large heat demand within a certain area and having access to local heat resources. In recent years, the locations of buildings in...... Denmark have been mapped in a heat atlas which includes all buildings and their heat demands. This article focuses on developing a method for assessing the costs associated with supplying these buildings with DH. The analysis is based on the existing DH areas in Denmark. By finding the heat production...... feasible to expand DH in many areas, but others would require reductions in production costs and distribution losses in order for DH expansions to be economically feasible. The analysis also shows the potential boundaries for DH expansion by including transmission and distribution costs. These boundaries...

  7. Future changes in global warming potentials under representative concentration pathways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global warming potentials (GWPs) are the metrics currently used to compare emissions of different greenhouse gases under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Future changes in greenhouse gas concentrations will alter GWPs because the radiative efficiencies of marginal changes in CO2, CH4 and N2O depend on their background concentrations, the removal of CO2 is influenced by climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, and atmospheric residence times of CH4 and N2O also depend on ambient temperature and other environmental changes. We calculated the currently foreseeable future changes in the absolute GWP of CO2, which acts as the denominator for the calculation of all GWPs, and specifically the GWPs of CH4 and N2O, along four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) up to the year 2100. We find that the absolute GWP of CO2 decreases under all RCPs, although for longer time horizons this decrease is smaller than for short time horizons due to increased climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. The 100-year GWP of CH4 would increase up to 20% under the lowest RCP by 2100 but would decrease by up to 10% by mid-century under the highest RCP. The 100-year GWP of N2O would increase by more than 30% by 2100 under the highest RCP but would vary by less than 10% under other scenarios. These changes are not negligible but are mostly smaller than the changes that would result from choosing a different time horizon for GWPs, or from choosing altogether different metrics for comparing greenhouse gas emissions, such as global temperature change potentials.

  8. Potentials of iron-based superconductors for practical future materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Since the discovery of high-Tc superconductivity in the REFeAs(O, F) system in 2008, studies on the development of superconducting materials using iron-based superconductors has been undertaken because of their high Hc2 and relatively high Tc. Although the cuprate superconductors exhibit much higher Tc and similar high Hc2, the small degree of electromagnetic anisotropy between the c-axis and ab-plane directions confirmed in 11, 122 and 1111 systems encouraged us to develop more versatile conductors. Single crystals and thin films deposited on single-crystalline and metal substrates have proved that the potentials of the iron-based superconductors are high enough for designing superconducting materials for high field generation. In addition, critical current properties of powder-in-tube processed tapes have been greatly improved in the past two years and are reaching the application level at 4.2 K in high magnetic field. However, the pinning mechanism and determining factors of the critical current properties of the iron-based superconductors have not been well understood. Characteristics and potentials of iron-based superconductors are discussed from various viewpoints in this paper in an effort to understand the current status and future prospects. (paper)

  9. Polyphenols: Potential Future Arsenals in the Treatment of Diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solayman, Md; Ali, Yousuf; Alam, Fahmida; Islam, Md Asiful; Alam, Nadia; Khalil, Md Ibrahim; Gan, Siew Hua

    2016-01-01

    Diabetes mellitus (DM) is one of the most common endocrine metabolic disorders. In addition to exercise and diet, oral anti-diabetic drugs have been used as a part of the management strategy worldwide. Unfortunately, none of the conventional anti-diabetic drugs are without side effects, and these drugs pose an economic burden. Therefore, the investigation of novel anti-diabetic regimens is a major challenge for researchers, in which nature has been the primary resource for the discovery of potential therapeutics. Many plants have been shown to act as anti-diabetic agents, in which the main active constituents are believed to be polyphenols. Natural products containing high polyphenol levels can control carbohydrate metabolism by various mechanisms, such as protecting and restoring beta-cell integrity, enhancing insulin releasing activity, and increasing cellular glucose uptake. Blackberries, red grapes, apricots, eggplant and popular drinks such as coffee, cocoa and green tea are all rich in polyphenols, which may dampen insulin resistance and be natural alternatives in the treatment of diabetes. Therefore, the aim of this review is to report on the available anti-diabetic polyphenols (medicinal plants, fruits and vegetables), their mechanisms in the various pathways of DM and their correlations with DM. Additionally, this review emphasizes the types of polyphenols that could be potential future resources in the treatment of DM via either novel regimens or as supplementary agents. PMID:26601968

  10. SIMULATION OF NET INFILTRATION FOR MODERN AND POTENTIAL FUTURE CLIMATES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J.A. Heveal

    2000-06-16

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) describes enhancements made to the infiltration model documented in Flint et al. (1996) and documents an analysis using the enhanced model to generate spatial and temporal distributions over a model domain encompassing the Yucca Mountain site, Nevada. Net infiltration is the component of infiltrated precipitation, snowmelt, or surface water run-on that has percolated below the zone of evapotranspiration as defined by the depth of the effective root zone, the average depth below the ground surface (at a given location) from which water is removed by evapotranspiration. The estimates of net infiltration are used for defining the upper boundary condition for the site-scale 3-dimensional Unsaturated-Zone Ground Water Flow and Transport (UZ flow and transport) Model (CRWMS M&O 2000a). The UZ flow and transport model is one of several process models abstracted by the Total System Performance Assessment model to evaluate expected performance of the potential repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, in terms of radionuclide transport (CRWMS M&O 1998). The net-infiltration model is important for assessing potential repository-system performance because output from this model provides the upper boundary condition for the UZ flow and transport model that is used to generate flow fields for evaluating potential radionuclide transport through the unsaturated zone. Estimates of net infiltration are provided as raster-based, 2-dimensional grids of spatially distributed, time-averaged rates for three different climate stages estimated as likely conditions for the next 10,000 years beyond the present. Each climate stage is represented using a lower bound, a mean, and an upper bound climate and corresponding net-infiltration scenario for representing uncertainty in the characterization of daily climate conditions for each climate stage, as well as potential climate variability within each climate stage. The set of nine raster grid maps provide spatially

  11. A geological perspective on potential future sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohling, Eelco J.; Haigh, Ivan D.; Foster, Gavin L.; Roberts, Andrew P.; Grant, Katharine M.

    2013-01-01

    During ice-age cycles, continental ice volume kept pace with slow, multi-millennial scale, changes in climate forcing. Today, rapid greenhouse gas (GHG) increases have outpaced ice-volume responses, likely committing us to > 9 m of long-term sea-level rise (SLR). We portray a context of naturally precedented SLR from geological evidence, for comparison with historical observations and future projections. This context supports SLR of up to 0.9 (1.8) m by 2100 and 2.7 (5.0) m by 2200, relative to 2000, at 68% (95%) probability. Historical SLR observations and glaciological assessments track the upper 68% limit. Hence, modern change is rapid by past interglacial standards but within the range of ‘normal’ processes. The upper 95% limit offers a useful low probability/high risk value. Exceedance would require conditions without natural interglacial precedents, such as catastrophic ice-sheet collapse, or activation of major East Antarctic mass loss at sustained CO2 levels above 1000 ppmv. PMID:24336564

  12. The Abiotic Depletion Potential: Background, Updates, and Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauran van Oers

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Depletion of abiotic resources is a much disputed impact category in life cycle assessment (LCA. The reason is that the problem can be defined in different ways. Furthermore, within a specified problem definition, many choices can still be made regarding which parameters to include in the characterization model and which data to use. This article gives an overview of the problem definition and the choices that have been made when defining the abiotic depletion potentials (ADPs for a characterization model for abiotic resource depletion in LCA. Updates of the ADPs since 2002 are also briefly discussed. Finally, some possible new developments of the impact category of abiotic resource depletion are suggested, such as redefining the depletion problem as a dilution problem. This means taking the reserves in the environment and the economy into account in the reserve parameter and using leakage from the economy, instead of extraction rate, as a dilution parameter.

  13. Remote Assessment of Lunar Resource Potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, G. Jeffrey

    1992-01-01

    Assessing the resource potential of the lunar surface requires a well-planned program to determine the chemical and mineralogical composition of the Moon's surface at a range of scales. The exploration program must include remote sensing measurements (from both Earth's surface and lunar orbit), robotic in situ analysis of specific places, and eventually, human field work by trained geologists. Remote sensing data is discussed. Resource assessment requires some idea of what resources will be needed. Studies thus far have concentrated on oxygen and hydrogen production for propellant and life support, He-3 for export as fuel for nuclear fusion reactors, and use of bulk regolith for shielding and construction materials. The measurement requirements for assessing these resources are given and discussed briefly.

  14. Potential hazards from future volcanic eruptions in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, C. Dan

    1989-01-01

    More than 500 volcanic vents have been identified in the State of California. At least 76 of these vents have erupted, some repeatedly, during the last 10,000 years. Past volcanic activity has ranged in scale and type from small rhyolitic and basaltic eruptions through large catastrophic rhyolitic eruptions. Sooner or later, volcanoes in California will erupt again, and they could have serious impacts on the health and safety of the State\\'s citizens as well as on its economy. This report describes the nature and probable distribution of potentially hazardous volcanic phenomena and their threat to people and property. It includes hazard-zonation maps that show areas relatively likely to be affected by future eruptions in California. The potentially more hazardous eruptions in the State are those that involve explosive eruption of large volumes of silicic magma. Such eruptions could occur at vents in as many as four areas in California. They could eject pumice high into the atmosphere above the volcano, produce destructive blasts, avalanches, or pyroclastic flows that reach distances of tens of kilometers from a vent, and produce mudflows and floods that reach to distances of hundreds of kilometers. Smaller eruptions produce similar, but less severe and less extensive, phenomena. Hazards are greatest close to a volcanic vent; the slopes on or near a volcano, and valleys leading away from it, are affected most often and most severely by such eruptions. In general, risk from volcanic phenomena decreases with increasing distance from a vent and, for most flowage processes, with increasing height above valley floors or fan surfaces. Tephra (ash) from explosive eruptions can affect wide areas downwind from a vent. In California, prevailing winds cause the 180-degree sector east of the volcano to be affected most often and most severely. Risk to life from ashfall decreases rapidly with increasing distance from a vent, but thin deposits of ash could disrupt communication

  15. Carbon offset potentials and design: Anticipating future public policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carbon offsets offer CO2 emitters the opportunity to compensate for some proportion of their CO2 emissions through the pursuit of emissions reduction or carbon sequestration projects beyond their own operational boundaries. The flexibility to pursue carbon offsets ''off-site'' can dramatically reduce the costs of achieving a given net emissions reduction. The future role of carbon offsets, however, continues to be a topic of considerable debate. Several processes are currently under way nationally and internationally that will help shape this role. This paper discusses how alternative policy outcomes could encourage or restrict the viability of carbon offsets as a component of corporate climate change mitigation portfolios and proposes criteria by which projects should be evaluated prior to the finalization of national or international policy frameworks. Based on these outcomes, the potential for offsets could be very large or very modest. It is vital that policy development in the offset arena account for the still voluntary nature of mitigation efforts and that the objective of climate change mitigation not be forgotten in the push for offset rules and regulations. At the same time, carbon offsets are far from a panacea for climate change mitigation and should be evaluated in the context of a larger global mitigation portfolio

  16. Untapped potential of health impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, Mirko S; Krieger, Gary R; Divall, Mark J; Cissé, Guéladio; Wielga, Mark; Singer, Burton H; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

    2013-04-01

    The World Health Organization has promoted health impact assessment (HIA) for over 20 years. At the 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20), HIA was discussed as a critical method for linking health to "green economy" and "institutional framework" strategies for sustainable development. In countries having a high human development index (HDI), HIA has been added to the overall assessment suite that typically includes potential environmental and social impacts, but it is rarely required as part of the environmental and social impact assessment for large development projects. When they are performed, project-driven HIAs are governed by a combination of project proponent and multilateral lender performance standards rather than host country requirements. Not surprisingly, in low-HDI countries HIA is missing from the programme and policy arena in the absence of an external project driver. Major drivers of global change (e.g. population growth and urbanization, growing pressure on natural resources and climate change) inordinately affect low- and medium-HDI countries; however, in such countries HIA is conspicuously absent. If the cloak of HIA invisibility is to be removed, it must be shown that HIA is useful and beneficial and, hence, an essential component of the 21st century's sustainable development agenda. We analyse where and how HIA can become fully integrated into the impact assessment suite and argue that the impact of HIA must not remain obscure. PMID:23599554

  17. Microburst windspeed potential assessment: progress and developments

    CERN Document Server

    Pryor, Kenneth L

    2008-01-01

    A suite of products has been developed and evaluated to assess hazards presented by convective downbursts to aircraft in flight derived from the current generation of GOES. The existing suite of GOES microburst products employs the sounder to calculate risk based on conceptual models of favorable environmental profiles for convective downburst generation. Accordingly, a diagnostic nowcasting product, the Microburst Windspeed Potential Index, is designed to infer attributes of a favorable microburst environment. In addition, a GOES-West imager microburst algorithm that employs brightness temperature differences between band 3 (upper level water vapor), band 4 (longwave infrared window), and split window band 5 has been developed to supplement the sounder-derived products. This paper provides an updated assessment of the sounder MWPI and imager microburst algorithms, presents case studies demonstrating effective operational use of the microburst products, and presents validation results for the 2008 convective ...

  18. Assessment of present and future large-scale semiconductor detector systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The performance of large-scale semiconductor detector systems is assessed with respect to their theoretical potential and to the practical limitations imposed by processing techniques, readout electronics and radiation damage. In addition to devices which detect reaction products directly, the analysis includes photodetectors for scintillator arrays. Beyond present technology we also examine currently evolving structures and techniques which show potential for producing practical devices in the foreseeable future

  19. Assessing the proarrhythmic potential of drugs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Morten Bækgaard; Matz, Jørgen; Volders, Paul G A;

    2006-01-01

    opinion that effects on repolarisation duration cannot directly be translated to risk of proarrhythmia. Current safety assessments of drugs only involve repolarisation assays, however the proarrhythmic profile can only be determined in the predisposed model. The availability of these proarrhythmic animal...... models is emphasised in the present paper. It is feasible for the pharmaceutical industry to establish one or more of these proarrhythmic animal models and large benefits are potentially available if pharmaceutical industries and patient-care authorities embraced these models. Furthermore, suggested...

  20. Assessing anhedonia in depression: Potentials and pitfalls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizvi, Sakina J; Pizzagalli, Diego A; Sproule, Beth A; Kennedy, Sidney H

    2016-06-01

    The resurgence of interest in anhedonia within major depression has been fuelled by clinical trials demonstrating its utility in predicting antidepressant response as well as recent conceptualizations focused on the role and manifestation of anhedonia in depression. Historically, anhedonia has been understood as a "loss of pleasure", yet neuropsychological and neurobiological studies reveal a multifaceted reconceptualization that emphasizes different facets of hedonic function, including desire, effort/motivation, anticipation and consummatory pleasure. To ensure generalizability across studies, evaluation of the available subjective and objective methods to assess anhedonia is necessary. The majority of research regarding anhedonia and its neurobiological underpinnings comes from preclinical research, which uses primary reward (e.g. food) to probe hedonic responding. In contrast, behavioural studies in humans primarily use secondary reward (e.g. money) to measure many aspects of reward responding, including delay discounting, response bias, prediction error, probabilistic reversal learning, effort, anticipation and consummatory pleasure. The development of subjective scales to measure anhedonia has also increased in the last decade. This review will assess the current methodology to measure anhedonia, with a focus on scales and behavioural tasks in humans. Limitations of current work and recommendations for future studies are discussed. PMID:26959336

  1. Back to the Future: Personality and Assessment and Personality Development

    OpenAIRE

    Roberts, Brent W.

    2009-01-01

    In this essay I consider the future of personality development in light of the past effects of Personality and Assessment on the field of personality in general and personality development in particular. The essay is organized around 1) the effect of Mischel's book on the foundational theories informing personality development; 2) definitions of personality traits; 3) an alternative model of personality traits, described as the sociogenomic model of personality traits, that can bridge the div...

  2. Future of computing technology in physics - the potentials and pitfalls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The impact of the developments of modern digital computers is discussed, especially with respect to physics research in the future. The effects of large data processing capability and increasing rates at which data can be acquired and processed are considered

  3. Communicating uncertainties in assessments of future sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wikman-Svahn, P.

    2013-12-01

    How uncertainty should be managed and communicated in policy-relevant scientific assessments is directly connected to the role of science and the responsibility of scientists. These fundamentally philosophical issues influence how scientific assessments are made and how scientific findings are communicated to policymakers. It is therefore of high importance to discuss implicit assumptions and value judgments that are made in policy-relevant scientific assessments. The present paper examines these issues for the case of scientific assessments of future sea level rise. The magnitude of future sea level rise is very uncertain, mainly due to poor scientific understanding of all physical mechanisms affecting the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, which together hold enough land-based ice to raise sea levels more than 60 meters if completely melted. There has been much confusion from policymakers on how different assessments of future sea levels should be interpreted. Much of this confusion is probably due to how uncertainties are characterized and communicated in these assessments. The present paper draws on the recent philosophical debate on the so-called "value-free ideal of science" - the view that science should not be based on social and ethical values. Issues related to how uncertainty is handled in scientific assessments are central to this debate. This literature has much focused on how uncertainty in data, parameters or models implies that choices have to be made, which can have social consequences. However, less emphasis has been on how uncertainty is characterized when communicating the findings of a study, which is the focus of the present paper. The paper argues that there is a tension between on the one hand the value-free ideal of science and on the other hand usefulness for practical applications in society. This means that even if the value-free ideal could be upheld in theory, by carefully constructing and hedging statements characterizing

  4. Futurism: Its Potential and Actual Role in Master of Business Administration (MBA) Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Robin T.

    2006-01-01

    In this article, the author highlights the potential role of "futurism" in master of business administration (MBA) curricula and the conceivable offerings of futurism to business planners. This article serves as a corollary to educators in MBA business education and concerns to the nature of futurism, the benefits of futurism to managerial…

  5. Assessing future changes in pan-European environmental flows

    OpenAIRE

    Laize, Cedric L.R.; Acreman, M.; Dunbar, M.; Houghton-Carr, H.; Florke, M.; Schneider, C; Hannah, D. M.

    2011-01-01

    The potential river flow-driven impact of change on aquatic and riparian ecosystems at the pan-European scale under various climatological and development scenarios was assessed using a methodology based conceptually on the Range of Variability Approach (RVA) using the Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA): a desk-top technique for assessing if environmental flow requirements. This paper presents an adaptation of the IHA approach using monthly flows. European and Mediterranean river net...

  6. Environmental assessment of current and future Swiss electricity supply options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Options for near future electricity supply are currently one of the main topics in the Swiss energy policy debate. Contrary to the total energy demand per capita the trend of rising electricity demand per capita is still visible. This paper presents a comparative environmental assessment of a broad portfolio of current and future electricity generation technologies including nuclear, fossil, and renewable power plants with their associated energy chains. The evaluation, based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), is carried out quantifying ten different environmental indicators, grouped in the categories greenhouse gas emissions, consumption of resources, waste, and impact on ecosystems. Hydropower shows minimal environmental impacts for all indicators; for other systems, the picture is diverse. The comparison of non-aggregated indicators allows preliminary conclusions about the environmental performance of the assessed systems. Establishing ranking of technologies calls for aggregating the indicators, which can be done by weighting of the indicators based on individual or stakeholder group preferences, either within a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework or with Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methods. Calculating total costs of electricity by adding external costs due to impacts on human health and ecosystems to the electricity production costs poses another option for ranking of technologies. (authors)

  7. Environmental assessment of current and future Swiss electricity supply options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bauer, Christian; Heck, Thomas; Hirschberg, Stefan [Paul Scherrer Institut, Villigen (Switzerland); Dones, Roberto [Paul Scherrer Institut, Villigen (Switzerland); BKW FMB Energy Ltd., Berne (Switzerland)

    2008-07-01

    Options for near future electricity supply are currently one of the main topics in the Swiss energy policy debate. Contrary to the total energy demand per capita the trend of rising electricity demand per capita is still visible. This paper presents a comparative environmental assessment of a broad portfolio of current and future electricity generation technologies including nuclear, fossil, and renewable power plants with their associated energy chains. The evaluation, based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), is carried out quantifying ten different environmental indicators, grouped in the categories greenhouse gas emissions, consumption of resources, waste, and impact on ecosystems. Hydropower shows minimal environmental impacts for all indicators; for other systems, the picture is diverse. The comparison of non-aggregated indicators allows preliminary conclusions about the environmental performance of the assessed systems. Establishing ranking of technologies calls for aggregating the indicators, which can be done by weighting of the indicators based on individual or stakeholder group preferences, either within a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework or with Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methods. Calculating total costs of electricity by adding external costs due to impacts on human health and ecosystems to the electricity production costs poses another option for ranking of technologies. (authors)

  8. Future of computing technology in physics - the potentials and pitfalls

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brenner, A.E.

    1984-02-01

    The impact of the developments of modern digital computers is discussed, especially with respect to physics research in the future. The effects of large data processing capability and increasing rates at which data can be acquired and processed are considered. (GHT)

  9. Ecologic potentials of the energy supply of future generations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The author discusses the possibilities of pollution abatement in energy supply in the future. The different topics are: efficiency of power plants, pollution abatement in power plants, comparison of the materials flow of the various energy sources (nuclear power, natural gas, coal, renewable energy sources), use of the exergy to minimize the materials flow, sustainable development. (SR)

  10. Modeling future scenarios of light attenuation and potential seagrass success in a eutrophic estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Barrio, Pilar; Ganju, Neil K.; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L.; Hayn, Melanie; García, Andrés; Howarth, Robert W.

    2014-01-01

    Estuarine eutrophication has led to numerous ecological changes, including loss of seagrass beds. One potential cause of these losses is a reduction in light availability due to increased attenuation by phytoplankton. Future sea level rise will also tend to reduce light penetration and modify seagrass habitat. In the present study, we integrate a spectral irradiance model into a biogeochemical model coupled to the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS). It is linked to a bio-optical seagrass model to assess potential seagrass habitat in a eutrophic estuary under future nitrate loading and sea-level rise scenarios. The model was applied to West Falmouth Harbor, a shallow estuary located on Cape Cod (Massachusetts) where nitrate from groundwater has led to eutrophication and seagrass loss in landward portions of the estuary. Measurements of chlorophyll, turbidity, light attenuation, and seagrass coverage were used to assess the model accuracy. Mean chlorophyll based on uncalibrated in-situ fluorometry varied from 28 μg L−1 at the landward-most site to 6.5 μg L−1 at the seaward site, while light attenuation ranged from 0.86 to 0.45 m-1. The model reproduced the spatial variability in chlorophyll and light attenuation with RMS errors of 3.72 μg L−1 and 0.07 m-1 respectively. Scenarios of future nitrate reduction and sea-level rise suggest an improvement in light climate in the landward basin with a 75% reduction in nitrate loading. This coupled model may be useful to assess habitat availability changes due to eutrophication and sediment resuspension and fully considers spatial variability on the tidal timescale.

  11. Future bio-energy potential under various natural constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potentials for bio-energy have been estimated earlier on the basis of estimates of potentially available land, excluding certain types of land use or land cover (land required for food production and forests). In this paper, we explore how such estimates may be influenced by other factors such as land degradation, water scarcity and biodiversity concerns. Our analysis indicates that of the original bio-energy potential estimate of 150, 80 EJ occurs in areas classified as from mild to severe land degradation, water stress, or with high biodiversity value. Yield estimates were also found to have a significant impact on potential estimates. A further 12.5% increase in global yields would lead to an increase in bio-energy potential of about 50%. Changes in bio-energy potential are shown to have a direct impact on bio-energy use in the energy model TIMER, although the relevant factor is the bio-energy potential at different cost levels and not the overall potential.

  12. THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF TEHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT ON FUTURE JOBS

    OpenAIRE

    ŞTEFAN COSMIN-ALEXANDRU; TOMA GEORGE-SORIN; Marinescu Paul

    2015-01-01

    Technological developments in the last decades have reached unbelievable levels, what was once the domain of science fiction movies is now a reality, and this developments have left few areas of human life unchanged. In this paper we aim to explore the changes that technology brought to the way people work and, especially to the way people will work. While we acknowledge that any prediction about the future is almost always proved wrong from the get go, we think that the importanc...

  13. Future technology in cochlear implants: assessing the benefit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, Robert J S

    2011-05-01

    ); automated fitting; and reduction in outcome variability. This paper provides examples of relevant potential future technologies that can be applied to reach these goals. In the quest for better outcomes, future technology must deliver improved reliability and usability for both clinicians and recipients that does not compromise safety and is affordable. One of the challenges related to the introduction of new technologies is the 'classification' of CI systems and the framework under which sufficient change and increased benefit can be demonstrated to establish a claim of 'new generation CI' and hence increased reimbursement from third-party payers. Significant improvements in hearing outcomes and quality of life associated with CI design changes are difficult to measure, particularly when there is such dramatic benefit from the intervention of cochlear implantation from the individual's perspective. Manufacturers and clinicians need to be objective and undertake appropriate safety studies and long-term and multi-centre clinical trials to ensure that the introduction of new technology is both safe and effective and supported by health systems worldwide. PMID:21756467

  14. Future changes in climatic water balance determine potential for transformational shifts in Australian fire regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boer, Matthias M.; Bowman, David M. J. S.; Murphy, Brett P.; Cary, Geoffrey J.; Cochrane, Mark A.; Fensham, Roderick J.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Price, Owen F.; Resco De Dios, Víctor; Williams, Richard J.; Bradstock, Ross A.

    2016-06-01

    Most studies of climate change effects on fire regimes assume a gradual reorganization of pyrogeographic patterns and have not considered the potential for transformational changes in the climate-vegetation-fire relationships underlying continental-scale fire regimes. Here, we model current fire activity levels in Australia as a function of mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) and potential evapotranspiration (E 0), as proxies for fuel productivity and fuel drying potential. We distinguish two domains in E,{E}0 space according to the dominant constraint on fire activity being either fuel productivity (PL-type fire) or fuel dryness (DL-type fire) and show that the affinity to these domains is related to fuel type. We propose to assess the potential for transformational shifts in fire type from the difference in the affinity to either domain under a baseline climate and projected future climate. Under the projected climate changes potential for a transformational shift from DL- to PL-type fire was predicted for mesic savanna woodland in the north and for eucalypt forests in coastal areas of the south–west and along the Continental Divide in the south–east of the continent. Potential for a shift from PL- to DL-type fire was predicted for a narrow zone of eucalypt savanna woodland in the north–east.

  15. A geological perspective on potential future sea-level rise

    OpenAIRE

    Rohling, Eelco J.; Haigh, Ivan D.; Foster, Gavin L; Roberts, Andrew P.; Katharine M. Grant

    2013-01-01

    During ice-age cycles, continental ice volume kept pace with slow, multi-millennial scale, changes in climate forcing. Today, rapid greenhouse gas (GHG) increases have outpaced ice-volume responses, likely committing us to > 9 m of long-term sea-level rise (SLR). We portray a context of naturally precedented SLR from geological evidence, for comparison with historical observations and future projections. This context supports SLR of up to 0.9 (1.8) m by 2100 and 2.7 (5.0) m by 2200, relative ...

  16. High efficiency USC power plant - present status and future potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blum, R. [Faelleskemikerne I/S Fynsvaerket (Denmark); Hald, J. [Elsam/Elkraft/TU Denmark (Denmark)

    1998-12-31

    Increasing demand for energy production with low impact on the environment and minimised fuel consumption can be met with high efficient coal fired power plants with advanced steam parameters. An important key to this improvement is the development of high temperature materials with optimised mechanical strength. Based on the results of more than ten years of development a coal fired power plant with an efficiency above 50 % can now be realised. Future developments focus on materials which enable an efficiency of 52-55 %. (orig.) 25 refs.

  17. Assessing and managing breast cancer risk: clinicians' current practice and future needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Ian M; Steel, Emma; Mann, G Bruce; Emery, Jon D; Bickerstaffe, Adrian; Trainer, Alison; Butow, Phyllis; Pirotta, Marie; Antoniou, Antonis C; Cuzick, Jack; Hopper, John; Phillips, Kelly-Anne; Keogh, Louise A

    2014-10-01

    Decision support tools for the assessment and management of breast cancer risk may improve uptake of prevention strategies. End-user input in the design of such tools is critical to increase clinical use. Before developing such a computerized tool, we examined clinicians' practice and future needs. Twelve breast surgeons, 12 primary care physicians and 5 practice nurses participated in 4 focus groups. These were recorded, coded, and analyzed to identify key themes. Participants identified difficulties assessing risk, including a lack of available tools to standardize practice. Most expressed confidence identifying women at potentially high risk, but not moderate risk. Participants felt a tool could especially reassure young women at average risk. Desirable features included: evidence-based, accessible (e.g. web-based), and displaying absolute (not relative) risks in multiple formats. The potential to create anxiety was a concern. Development of future tools should address these issues to optimize translation of knowledge into clinical practice. PMID:24998452

  18. Assessing Future Ecosystem Services: a Case Study of the Northern Highlands Lake District, Wisconsin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Lisa Dent

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available The Northern Highlands Lake District of Wisconsin is in transition from a sparsely settled region to a more densely populated one. Expected changes offer benefits to northern Wisconsin residents but also threaten to degrade the ecological services they rely on. Because the future of this region is uncertain, it is difficult to make decisions that will avoid potential risks and take advantage of potential opportunities. We adopt a scenario planning approach to cope with this problem of prediction. We use an ecological assessment framework developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment to determine key social and ecological driving forces in the Northern Highlands Lake District. From these, we describe three alternative scenarios to the year 2025 in which the projected use of ecological services is substantially different. The work reported in this paper demonstrates how scenarios can be developed for a region and provides a starting point for a participatory discussion of alternative futures for northern Wisconsin. Although the future is unknowable, we hope that the assessment process begun in this paper will help the people of the Northern Highlands Lake District choose the future path of their region.

  19. Tensors, non-Gaussianities, and the future of potential reconstruction

    CERN Document Server

    Powell, Brian A; Kinney, William H

    2008-01-01

    We present projections for reconstruction of the inflationary potential expected from ESA's upcoming Planck Surveyor CMB mission. We focus on the effects that tensor perturbations and the presence of non-Gaussianities have on reconstruction efforts in the context of non-canonical inflation models. We consider potential constraints for different combinations of detection/null-detection of tensors and non-Gaussianities. We perform Markov Chain Monte Carlo and flow analyses on a simulated Planck-precision data set to obtain constraints. We find that a failure to detect non-Gaussianities precludes a successful inversion of the primordial power spectrum, greatly affecting uncertainties, even in the presence of a tensor detection. In the absence of a tensor detection, while unable to determine the energy scale of inflation, an observable level of non-Gaussianities provides correlations between the errors of the potential parameters, suggesting that constraints might be improved for suitable combinations of paramete...

  20. Community-based assessment and planning of energy futures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carnes, S.A.

    1981-01-01

    The Decentralized Solar Energy Technology Assessment Program (DSETAP) is discussed. In this program four communities were involved in an assessment of the compatibility of diverse conservation and renewable energy-supply technologies and community values and goals and in community planning for the implementation of compatible energy demand and supply alternatives. The approach taken by these communities has several basic components, including: (1) recruiting and organizing for the assessment planning process; (2) collection and analysis of data related to community energy use and indigenous renewable-energy resources; (3) creation and maintenance of a community education and information program; (4) development of policies favorable to the development of preferred community futures; and (5) development of implementation or action strategies. How these components were carried out by the four communities in the DSETAP is reviewed. Particular attention is paid to a number of important issues which were raised during the course of the DSETAP, including the role of public participation, group decision-making techniques, the role of technical information in citizen and group decision-making, and linkages between assessment planning and the relevant policy process.

  1. A Global Assessment of Fast Reactors in the Future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Various criteria will be presented and used for assessing the future of sodium cooled fast reactors (SFRs) on a worldwide basis, including sustainability, economics, contribution to maintaining nuclear R&D excellence, long term acceptability of nuclear energy, leading position in nuclear energy industry for countries developing SFRs and diversification of the risks and insurance. One of the main concerns is public acceptance, which may vary over time for a number of reasons. If it is assumed that safety and non-proliferation concerns will be dealt with effectively, acceptance will most probably be obtained and the question will not be whether to launch SFRs on an industrial scale, but when and where. An assessment of the market will also be provided in this paper. The world market for industrial Gen IV SFRs is expected to be between 0 and 2 units (1500 MW(e)) per year based on an optimistic approach, before economic competitiveness is reached, and 10–15 later. Though there are large uncertainties on the exact period at which economic competitiveness will be reached, it is most probably likely to occur sometime during the second half of the century. In the future, the advantages of SFRs will likely grow significantly faster than any disadvantages. (author)

  2. Assessment of Future Skills Requirements in the Hospitality Sector in Ireland, 2015-2020

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    The hospitality sector is one of the most important employment services sectors in the Irish economy, and there is significant potential for future expansion. The objective of this study is to assess the skills demand needs arising within the Hospitality sector in Ireland – hotels, restaurants, bars, canteens and catering – over the period to 2020. The aim is to ensure that there will be the right supply of skills to help drive domestic hospitality sector business and employment growth.

  3. Assessment of potential adjuvanticity of Cry proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Saurabh S; Barnett, Brian; Doerrer, Nancy G; Glenn, Kevin; Herman, Rod A; Herouet-Guicheney, Corinne; Hunst, Penny; Kough, John; Ladics, Gregory S; McClain, Scott; Papineni, Sabitha; Poulsen, Lars K; Rascle, Jean-Baptiste; Tao, Ai-Lin; van Ree, Ronald; Ward, Jason; Bowman, Christal C

    2016-08-01

    Genetically modified (GM) crops have achieved success in the marketplace and their benefits extend beyond the overall increase in harvest yields to include lowered use of insecticides and decreased carbon dioxide emissions. The most widely grown GM crops contain gene/s for targeted insect protection, herbicide tolerance, or both. Plant expression of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) crystal (Cry) insecticidal proteins have been the primary way to impart insect resistance in GM crops. Although deemed safe by regulatory agencies globally, previous studies have been the basis for discussions around the potential immuno-adjuvant effects of Cry proteins. These studies had limitations in study design. The studies used animal models with extremely high doses of Cry proteins, which when given using the ig route were co-administered with an adjuvant. Although the presumption exists that Cry proteins may have immunostimulatory activity and therefore an adjuvanticity risk, the evidence shows that Cry proteins are expressed at very low levels in GM crops and are unlikely to function as adjuvants. This conclusion is based on critical review of the published literature on the effects of immunomodulation by Cry proteins, the history of safe use of Cry proteins in foods, safety of the Bt donor organisms, and pre-market weight-of-evidence-based safety assessments for GM crops. PMID:27105772

  4. Potential diagnostic applications of biosensors: current and future directions

    OpenAIRE

    SONG, Shiping; Xu, Hui; Fan, Chunhai

    2006-01-01

    This review describes recent advances in biosensors of potential clinical applications. Biosensors are becoming increasingly important and practical tools in pathogen detection, molecular diagnostics, environmental monitoring, food safety control as well as in homeland defense. Electrochemical biosensors are particularly promising toward these goals arising due to several combined advantages including low-cost, operation convenience, and miniaturized devices. We review the clinical applicatio...

  5. Biofuel initiatives in Japan: Strategies, policies, and future potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Japan has developed a variety of national strategies and plans related to biofuels which address four main policy objectives, including reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, energy security, rural development, and realisation of a recycle-based society. This paper reviews these national strategies and plans as well as associated implementing policies, and discusses the extent to which these objectives may be achieved. This paper found that the long-term potential of biofuels to contribute to GHG reduction goals will depend not only on the rates of technological development of the second generation biofuels but also on the development of other advanced vehicles. In the medium term, the potential contribution of biofuels to rural development and realising a recycle-based society could become significant depending on the progress of technology for both second generation biofuel production and the collection and transportation of their feedstocks. The potential contribution of biofuels to Japan's energy security is constrained by the availability of imports and the potential of domestic production.

  6. Elements of a regulatory strategy for the consideration of future human actions in safety assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this report is to discuss issues that should be considered in the development of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in any forthcoming license application for a deep repository for spent fuel in Sweden and for sites of other repositories. The report comprises an outline of key issues concerning the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, reviews of regulatory developments, recent safety assessments and supporting studies, and international initiatives on the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, and the principal elements of a regulatory strategy. Performance assessments (PAs) are generally accepted as providing illustrations of system performance under given sets of assumptions. The results of PAs are clearer and easier to understand if certain large uncertainties are accounted for by determining performance under several different sets of assumptions or scenarios, each of which defines a possible evolution of the disposal system. A number of assumptions can be made that would restrict the scope of an assessment without reducing the credibility of the corresponding safety case. Reducing speculation about technological development, by assuming that the techniques used in future human activities are similar to those currently in use in the region or at similar sites, will simplify the assessment. A distinction is generally made between inadvertent and intentional intrusion, with intentional activities excluded because society cannot protect future populations from their own actions if they understand the potential consequences. A division of human activities into 'recent and ongoing' and 'future' activities considers not only the timing of the activities but also the degree of control or influence that can be imposed on them. Recent and ongoing human activities are those that affect an area beyond the immediate vicinity of the disposal facility and which neither the proponent nor the regulator

  7. Adaptive coded aperture imaging: progress and potential future applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottesman, Stephen R.; Isser, Abraham; Gigioli, George W., Jr.

    2011-09-01

    Interest in Adaptive Coded Aperture Imaging (ACAI) continues to grow as the optical and systems engineering community becomes increasingly aware of ACAI's potential benefits in the design and performance of both imaging and non-imaging systems , such as good angular resolution (IFOV), wide distortion-free field of view (FOV), excellent image quality, and light weight construct. In this presentation we first review the accomplishments made over the past five years, then expand on previously published work to show how replacement of conventional imaging optics with coded apertures can lead to a reduction in system size and weight. We also present a trade space analysis of key design parameters of coded apertures and review potential applications as replacement for traditional imaging optics. Results will be presented, based on last year's work of our investigation into the trade space of IFOV, resolution, effective focal length, and wavelength of incident radiation for coded aperture architectures. Finally we discuss the potential application of coded apertures for replacing objective lenses of night vision goggles (NVGs).

  8. Future human actions in safety assessment for radioactive waste repositories: Elements of a regulatory strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The safety case for a radioactive waste disposal facility must provide assurance that the long-term performance of the overall system will satisfy appropriate national and international safety criteria. Human actions have the potential to affect the performance of deep geologic repositories, and must therefore be considered in any safety case. A safety case comprises a wide range of both quantitative and qualitative elements. An important element is a performance assessment (PA) that evaluates the overall behaviour of the disposal system taking account of all sources of uncertainty. Guidance from the regulator would be helpful in ensuring that potential impacts, including those related to human actions, are adequately assessed in a PA, and thereby allow the results to be judged against established regulatory targets or limits. In Sweden, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) and the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) are responsible for the regulation of nuclear activities including radioactive waste disposal. The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is responsible for the management of radioactive waste and for justifying its waste management policy and decisions. Future human actions must be considered at a broad level in developing a policy on the long-term disposition of radioactive wastes, including in the context of an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). Such considerations have been one reason behind the world-wide focus on deep geological disposal of high-level radioactive wastes, as opposed to the alternative of long-term or indefinite near-surface storage. A deep geological repository is conceived as a passively safe system that does not require ongoing institutional control to ensure long-term safety. SKB is in the process of siting a deep repository for spent nuclear fuel and, as part of this work, will be preparing an EIA in which alternatives to disposal must be considered. The objective of this paper is to

  9. THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF TEHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT ON FUTURE JOBS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ŞTEFAN COSMIN-ALEXANDRU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Technological developments in the last decades have reached unbelievable levels, what was once the domain of science fiction movies is now a reality, and this developments have left few areas of human life unchanged. In this paper we aim to explore the changes that technology brought to the way people work and, especially to the way people will work. While we acknowledge that any prediction about the future is almost always proved wrong from the get go, we think that the importance of the subject warrants the risk. The paper draws its routes from some of the most influential theories about how technology will impact the way people work and is main objective is to spark a conversation about the merits of lack thereof that they contain. It is by no means an extensive work, but rather the beginning of a research focus that will, hopefully bring new insights in the above mentioned field. For the sake of convenience we have grouped the predictions in three categories: “Business as usual”, “Lateral developments” and “All bets are off” based on how profound the change would be. Each of this levels offers different benefits, as well as different challenges, our hope is that throw a process of thorough consideration solutions can be generated to maximize the former while minimizing the latter.

  10. Dendroclimatology in Fennoscandia – from past accomplishments to future potentials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Stridbeck

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Dendroclimatology, i.e. using tree-ring data to reconstruct past climates, in Fennoscandia has a strong tradition. Due to the high-latitude location of the region, trees are sensitive to climate; in general to temperatures during summer. However, a strong gradient from the oceanic west to the continental east, makes it possible to find trees that respond to other parameters, such as precipitation and drought. Situated in a sparsely populated part of the Boreal belt, Fennoscandia with its large areas of old-growth forests is suitable for constructing tree-ring chronologies reaching far back in time. Indeed, some of the world longest tree-ring chronologies are found in the region, covering all, or most of, the Holocene. In addition to providing valuable information about regional climate variability during the Holocene, tree-ring data have played significant roles in recent reconstructions of hemispheric and global temperatures as well as large-scale circulation patterns. Here we review the field of dendroclimatology in Fennoscandia, showing the wealth of climate information obtained from various tree-ring parameters (ring widths, density and stable isotopes, and look in to future possibilities.

  11. Assessment of wind energy potential in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starosta, Katarzyna; Linkowska, Joanna; Mazur, Andrzej

    2014-05-01

    The aim of the presentation is to show the suitability of using numerical model wind speed forecasts for the wind power industry applications in Poland. In accordance with the guidelines of the European Union, the consumption of wind energy in Poland is rapidly increasing. According to the report of Energy Regulatory Office from 30 March 2013, the installed capacity of wind power in Poland was 2807MW from 765 wind power stations. Wind energy is strongly dependent on the meteorological conditions. Based on the climatological wind speed data, potential energy zones within the area of Poland have been developed (H. Lorenc). They are the first criterion for assessing the location of the wind farm. However, for exact monitoring of a given wind farm location the prognostic data from numerical model forecasts are necessary. For the practical interpretation and further post-processing, the verification of the model data is very important. Polish Institute Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute (IMWM-NRI) runs an operational model COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modelling, version 4.8) using two nested domains at horizontal resolutions of 7 km and 2.8 km. The model produces 36 hour and 78 hour forecasts from 00 UTC, for 2.8 km and 7 km domain resolutions respectively. Numerical forecasts were compared with the observation of 60 SYNOP and 3 TEMP stations in Poland, using VERSUS2 (Unified System Verification Survey 2) and R package. For every zone the set of statistical indices (ME, MAE, RMSE) was calculated. Forecast errors for aerological profiles are shown for Polish TEMP stations at Wrocław, Legionowo and Łeba. The current studies are connected with a topic of the COST ES1002 WIRE-Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies.

  12. Assessing the therapeutic potential of lab-made hepatocytes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezvani, Milad; Grimm, Andrew A; Willenbring, Holger

    2016-07-01

    Hepatocyte transplantation has potential as a bridge or even alternative to whole-organ liver transplantation. Because donor livers are scarce, realizing this potential requires the development of alternative cell sources. To be therapeutically effective, surrogate hepatocytes must replicate the complex function and ability to proliferate of primary human hepatocytes. Ideally, they are also autologous to eliminate the need for immune suppression, which can have severe side effects and may not be sufficient to prevent rejection long term. In the past decade, several methods have been developed to generate hepatocytes from other readily and safely accessible somatic cells. These lab-made hepatocytes show promise in animal models of liver diseases, supporting the feasibility of autologous liver cell therapies. Here, we review recent preclinical studies exemplifying different types of lab-made hepatocytes that can potentially be used in autologous liver cell therapies. To define the therapeutic efficacy of current lab-made hepatocytes, we compare them to primary human hepatocytes, focusing on engraftment efficiency and posttransplant proliferation and function. In addition to summarizing published results, we discuss animal models and assays effective in assessing therapeutic efficacy. This analysis underscores the therapeutic potential of current lab-made hepatocytes, but also highlights deficiencies and uncertainties that need to be addressed in future studies aimed at developing liver cell therapies with lab-made hepatocytes. (Hepatology 2016;64:287-294). PMID:27014802

  13. Potential evapotranspiration and the likelihood of future drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rind, D.; Hansen, J.; Goldberg, R.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruedy, R.

    1990-01-01

    The possibility that the greenhouse warming predicted by the GISS general-circulation model and other GCMs could lead to severe droughts is investigated by means of numerical simulations, with a focus on the role of potential evapotranspiration E(P). The relationships between precipitation (P), E(P), soil moisture, and vegetation changes in GCMs are discussed; the empirically derived Palmer drought-intensity index and a new supply-demand index (SDDI) based on changes in P - E(P) are described; and simulation results for the period 1960-2060 are presented in extensive tables, graphs, and computer-generated color maps. Simulations with both drought indices predict increasing drought frequency for the U.S., with effects already apparent in the 1990s and a 50-percent frequency of severe droughts by the 2050s. Analyses of arid periods during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic are shown to support the use of the SDDI in GCM drought prediction.

  14. Elements of a regulatory strategy for the consideration of future human actions in safety assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Wickham, S.M.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

    1999-09-01

    The objective of this report is to discuss issues that should be considered in the development of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in any forthcoming license application for a deep repository for spent fuel in Sweden and for sites of other repositories. The report comprises an outline of key issues concerning the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, reviews of regulatory developments, recent safety assessments and supporting studies, and international initiatives on the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, and the principal elements of a regulatory strategy. Performance assessments (PAs) are generally accepted as providing illustrations of system performance under given sets of assumptions. The results of PAs are clearer and easier tounderstand if certain large uncertainties are accounted for by determining performance under several different sets of assumptions or scenarios, each of which defines a possible evolution of the disposal system. A number of assumptions can be made that would restrict the scope of an assessment without reducing the credibility of the corresponding safety case. Reducing speculation about technological development, by assuming that the techniques used in future human activities are similar to those currently in use in the region or at similar sites, will simplify the assessment. A distinction is generally made between inadvertent and intentional intrusion, with intentional activities excluded because society cannot protect future populations from their own actions if they understand the potential consequences. A division of human activities into 'recent and ongoing' and 'future' activities considers not only the timing of the activities but also the degree of control or influence that can be imposed on them. Recent and ongoing human activities are those that affect an area beyond the immediate vicinity of the disposal facility and which neither the proponent

  15. Pharmacological hypothermia: a potential for future stroke therapy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Kaiyin; Khan, Hajra; Geng, Xiaokun; Zhang, Jun; Ding, Yuchuan

    2016-06-01

    Mild physical hypothermia after stroke has been associated with positive outcomes. Despite the well-studied beneficial effects of hypothermia in the treatment of stroke, lack of precise temperature control, intolerance for the patient, and immunosuppression are some of the reasons which limit its clinical translation. Pharmacologically induced hypothermia has been explored as a possible treatment option following stroke in animal models. Currently, there are eight classes of pharmacological agents/agonists with hypothermic effects affecting a multitude of systems including cannabinoid, opioid, transient receptor potential vanilloid 1 (TRPV1), neurotensin, thyroxine derivatives, dopamine, gas, and adenosine derivatives. Interestingly, drugs in the TRPV1, neurotensin, and thyroxine families have been shown to have effects in thermoregulatory control in decreasing the compensatory hypothermic response during cooling. This review will briefly present drugs in the eight classes by summarizing their proposed mechanisms of action as well as side effects. Reported thermoregulatory effects of the drugs will also be presented. This review offers the opinion that these agents may be useful in combination therapies with physical hypothermia to achieve faster and more stable temperature control in hypothermia. PMID:27320243

  16. An assessment of future volcanic hazard at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preliminary results and methods of a volcanic-hazards assessment for the proposed high-level nuclear-waste repository at Yucca Mountain are given. The most significant hazards are potential intersection of the repository by a basaltic dike, or structural disruption associated with dike intrusion. Two approaches are taken, which give similar results: homogeneous volcanic-source zones and spatial smoothing. The preliminary computed probabilities of intersection of the Yucca Mountain repository by a basaltic dike are in the range 10-7 to 10-8 per year

  17. Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosa Björk Thorolfsdottir

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25-74. Calculations were based on combining: i data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland, ii population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study, and iii effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses. Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: (1 If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. (2 If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3 Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040. CONCLUSIONS: The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future.

  18. Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this model report is to document the infiltration model used to estimate upper-bound, mean, and lower-bound spatially-distributed average annual net infiltration rates for present-day and potential future climates at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Net infiltration is the component of infiltrated precipitation, snowmelt, or surface water run-on that has percolated below the zone of evapotranspiration as defined by the depth of the effective root zone. The estimates of net infiltration are primarily used for defining the upper boundary condition for the site-scale three-dimensional unsaturated zone (UZ) model. The UZ flow model is one of several process models abstracted by the total system performance assessment (TSPA) model used to evaluate performance of the repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The net-infiltration model is important for assessing repository-system performance because output from this model provides the upper boundary condition for the UZ flow model used to generate flow fields; water percolating downward from the UZ will be the principal means by which radionuclides are potentially released to the saturated zone (SZ). The SZ is the principal pathway to the biosphere where the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) is exposed to radionuclides

  19. Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D. Levitt

    2004-11-09

    The purpose of this model report is to document the infiltration model used to estimate upper-bound, mean, and lower-bound spatially-distributed average annual net infiltration rates for present-day and potential future climates at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Net infiltration is the component of infiltrated precipitation, snowmelt, or surface water run-on that has percolated below the zone of evapotranspiration as defined by the depth of the effective root zone. The estimates of net infiltration are primarily used for defining the upper boundary condition for the site-scale three-dimensional unsaturated zone (UZ) model. The UZ flow model is one of several process models abstracted by the total system performance assessment (TSPA) model used to evaluate performance of the repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The net-infiltration model is important for assessing repository-system performance because output from this model provides the upper boundary condition for the UZ flow model used to generate flow fields; water percolating downward from the UZ will be the principal means by which radionuclides are potentially released to the saturated zone (SZ). The SZ is the principal pathway to the biosphere where the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) is exposed to radionuclides.

  20. Traumatic brain injury: future assessment tools and treatment prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven R Flanagan

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Steven R Flanagan1, Joshua B Cantor2, Teresa A Ashman21New York University School of Medicine, The Rusk Institute of Rehabilitation, New York, NY, USA; 2Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, NY, USAAbstract: Traumatic brain injury (TBI is widespread and leads to death and disability in millions of individuals around the world each year. Overall incidence and prevalence of TBI are likely to increase in absolute terms in the future. Tackling the problem of treating TBI successfully will require improvements in the understanding of normal cerebral anatomy, physiology, and function throughout the lifespan, as well as the pathological and recuperative responses that result from trauma. New treatment approaches and combinations will need to be targeted to the heterogeneous needs of TBI populations. This article explores and evaluates the research evidence in areas that will likely lead to a reduction in TBI-related morbidity and improved outcomes. These include emerging assessment instruments and techniques in areas of structural/chemical and functional neuroimaging and neuropsychology, advances in the realms of cell-based therapies and genetics, promising cognitive rehabilitation techniques including cognitive remediation and the use of electronic technologies including assistive devices and virtual reality, and the emerging field of complementary and alternative medicine.Keywords: traumatic brain injury, assessments, treatments

  1. Impact assessment for a sustainable energy future-Reflections and practical experiences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As energy issues are at the top of the policy agenda worldwide, policy-makers increasingly need better decision-supporting processes to assist them in fostering a sustainable energy future. This paper reflects on the interpretation of sustainable development, and links these reflections with the theory and practice of impact assessment applied on energy issues. An analysis of existing impact assessment approaches with regard to their contribution to sustainable development leads to a set of principles for 'sustainability assessment'. Through a study of a participatory impact assessment supporting the development of a radioactive waste management plan in Belgium, the interpretational limits of sustainable development in a nuclear energy context are discussed. This paper sheds light on the complex context in which impact assessment exercises must contribute to sustainable energy development, with a focus on the nuclear energy-(un)sustainability nexus. - Highlights: →We explore the potential of sustainable development as a decision-guiding strategy for energy policy. → We analyze the role of impact assessment approaches in supporting energy policy decision-making. → A sustainability assessment framework is proposed and applied on a nuclear waste management case. → Sustainability assessments allow us to explore the interpretational limits of sustainability. → The broader context of any sustainability assessment should be acknowledged transparently.

  2. Risk assessment of the impact of future volcanic eruptions on direct normal irradiance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagh Nielsen, Kristian; Blanc, Philippe; Vignola, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Stratospheric sulfate aerosols from Plinian volcanic eruptions affect the solar surface irradiance forcing by scattering the solar radiation as it passes through the Earth atmosphere. Since these aerosols have high single scattering albedos they mostly affect direct normal irradiances (DNI). The effect on global horizontal irradiance (GHI) is less because some of the scattered irradiance reaches the surface as diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) and adds to the GHI. DNI is the essential input to concentrating solar thermal electric power (CSP/STE) and concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) plants. Therefore, an assessment of the future potential variability in the DNI resource caused by Plinian volcanic eruptions is desirable. Based on investigations of the El Chichón and Pinatubo eruptions, the microphysical, and thereby optical, properties of the stratospheric sulfate aerosols are well known. Given these, radiative transfer computations of the DNI resource can be made. The DNI resource includes forward scattered irradiance within the acceptance angle of a given CSP/STE or CPV plant. The rarity of Plinian eruptions poses a challenge for assessing the statistical risk of future eruptions and its potential of risk in the electricity production. Here we present and discuss methods to account for these potential volcanic eruptions for technical and economical studies including scenarios with very high probability of exceedance (e.g. P99 scenarios) for risk assessment of DNI-based solar power projects.

  3. Assessment of potential aquatic herbicide impacts to California aquatic ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siemering, Geoffrey S; Hayworth, Jennifer D; Greenfield, Ben K

    2008-10-01

    A series of legal decisions culminated in 2002 with the California State Water Resources Control Board funding the San Francisco Estuary Institute to develop and implement a 3-year monitoring program to determine the potential environmental impacts of aquatic herbicide applications. The monitoring program was intended to investigate the behavior of all aquatic pesticides in use in California, to determine potential impacts in a wide range of water-body types receiving applications, and to help regulators determine where to direct future resources. A tiered monitoring approach was developed to achieve a balance between program goals and what was practically achievable within the project time and budget constraints. Water, sediment, and biota were collected under "worst-case" scenarios in close association with herbicide applications. Applications of acrolein, copper sulfate, chelated copper, diquat dibromide, glyphosate, fluridone, triclopyr, and 2,4-D were monitored. A range of chemical analyses, toxicity tests, and bioassessments were conducted. At each site, risk quotients were calculated to determine potential impacts. For sediment-partitioning herbicides, sediment quality triad analysis was performed. Worst-case scenario monitoring and special studies showed limited short-term and no long-term toxicity directly attributable to aquatic herbicide applications. Risk quotient calculations called for additional risk characterizations; these included limited assessments for glyphosate and fluridone and more extensive risk assessments for diquat dibromide, chelated copper products, and copper sulfate. Use of surfactants in conjunction with aquatic herbicides was positively associated with greater ecosystem impacts. Results therefore warrant full risk characterization for all adjuvant compounds. PMID:18293029

  4. Energy potential of region and its quantitative assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatyana Aleksandrovna Kovalenko

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the article is the development of the concept of the energy potential of the region (EPR, the analysis of the existing structure of relationships for the EPR elements in Ukraine and improvement of a quantitative assessment of energy potential of the region (country. The methods of an assessment of the existing condition of energy potential of the territory are the subject matter of the research. As a result of the analysis of concept’s definitions of energy potential of the region, it has further development and included the consumer potential of energy resources and capacity of management. The structure of relationships between elements of energy potential is developed for the Ukraine region. The new economic indicator — the realized energy potential is offered for an EPR assessment. By means of this indicator, the assessment of energy potential for the different countries of the world and a number of Ukraine areas of is performed.

  5. Future transportation: Lifetime considerations and framework for sustainability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Modern society cannot exist without mobility. It is now essential to maintain access to everyday necessities, as well as being a vital part of most economies. However, our current transportation system is placing unsustainable demands on finite resources of fossil fuels, minerals and materials; change is therefore essential. Identifying rational choices is difficult because a future transport option must not only abate these demands over the entire lifetime, but do so at an affordable cost whilst maintaining acceptable levels of utility. This paper offers a framework to evaluate powertrains for whole life criteria, in order to help validate current and future developments. It supports integrated comparisons of both fuel and vehicle technology combinations for cost, energy and greenhouse gas emissions throughout a vehicles lifetime. Case studies illustrate the use of this framework. All powertrains were found to require considerable amounts of energy and emit some emissions over their whole lifetime. Significant benefits over incumbent vehicles were found to be potentially attainable through the use of alternative powertrains. However, the majority of these benefits were currently found to increase user costs, worsen the vehicle production impacts and be heavily reliant on the source of the vehicles in-use energy. - Highlight: ► Cost, energy and GHG emissions throughout a vehicle’s lifetime are evaluated. ► This paper offers a structure to evaluate powertrains for whole life criteria. ► Substantial amounts of energy and emissions were evident for all options. ► Significant environmental benefits over incumbent vehicles were found. ► In-use benefits were shown to shift impacts to other phases of a vehicle’s lifetime.

  6. Modelling requirements for future assessments based on FEP analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report forms part of a suite of documents describing the Nirex model development programme. The programme is designed to provide a clear audit trail from the identification of significant features, events and processes (FEPs) to the models and modelling processes employed within a detailed safety assessment. A scenario approach to performance assessment has been adopted. It is proposed that potential evolutions of a deep geological radioactive waste repository can be represented by a base scenario and a number of variant scenarios. The base scenario is chosen to be broad-ranging and to represent the natural evolution of the repository system and its surrounding environment. The base scenario is defined to include all those FEPs that are certain to occur and those which are judged likely to occur for a significant period of the assessment timescale. The structuring of FEPs on a Master Directed Diagram (MDD) provides a systematic framework for identifying those FEPs that form part of the natural evolution of the system and those, which may define alternative potential evolutions of the repository system. In order to construct a description of the base scenario, FEPs have been grouped into a series of conceptual models. Conceptual models are groups of FEPs, identified from the MDD, representing a specific component or process within the disposal system. It has been found appropriate to define conceptual models in terms of the three main components of the disposal system: the repository engineered system, the surrounding geosphere and the biosphere. For each of these components, conceptual models provide a description of the relevant subsystem in terms of its initial characteristics, subsequent evolution and the processes affecting radionuclide transport for the groundwater and gas pathways. The aim of this document is to present the methodology that has been developed for deriving modelling requirements and to illustrate the application of the methodology by

  7. Complex Assessment of Sufficiency of the Bank Resource Potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azizova Kateryna M.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the article is development of methodical recommendations regarding assessment of sufficiency of the bank resource potential by means of identification and analysis of all its components and use of the method of rating assessment. Analysing, systemising and generalising scientific works of foreign and Ukrainian scientists, the article considers a complex approach to the bank resource potential management. In the result of the study the article identifies specific features of a complex approach in the bank resource potential management. The method of geometric average and normative values of selected ratios for calculation was used for the generalising complex assessment of sufficiency of the bank resource potential. The rating assessment of the Public JSC Mercury Bank resource potential was calculated by such indicators as: debt, loan and own resources. The stated algorithm of the rating assessment of the resource potential could be applied for comparison of banks in dynamics.

  8. Bio-SNG potential assessment: Denmark 2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahrenfeldt, J.; Thomsen, T. (Risoe DTU, Roskilde (Denmark)); Joergensen, Betina (Dansk Gasteknisk Center A/S, Hoersholm (Denmark))

    2010-11-15

    In this project the potential for SNG based on biomass gasification has been sought elucidated. As part of the project a model for simulation of biomass in Denmark has been developed. The conclusion is that SNG can substitute a significant amount of natural gas, but the energy efficiency should be improved. (Author)

  9. Bio-SNG potential assessment: Denmark 2020

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahrenfeldt, Jesper; Jørgensen, Betina; Thomsen, Tobias

    In this project the potential for SNG based on biomass gasification has been sought elucidated. As part of the project a model for simulation of biomass in Denmark has been developed. The conclusion is that SNG can substitute a significant amount of natural gas, but the energy efficiency should be...

  10. Future yields assessment of bioenergy crops in relation to climate change and technological development in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvatore L. Cosentino

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Bioenergy crops are expected to play an important role in reducing CO2 emission, in energy supply and in European energy policy. However, a sustainable bioenergy supply must be resilient to climate change and the impacts on agriculture at both global and regional scale. The purpose of this study was to forecast the potential distribution of several bioenergy crops based on agronomic and environmental constrains under current conditions and future scenarios (2020 and 2030 in European Union. Potential biomass yield, according to the category end use product achievable in each environmental zone of Europe at present and in the future available land have been also studied. Future yields were assessed according to two factors: technological development and climate change: the former was based on prospect of DG-Agriculture for conventional crops and expert judgments for bioenergy crops, while the latter based on relevant research papers and literature reviews which used site-specific crop growth models. Yields are expected to increase in northern Europe due to climate change and technological development, while in southerneastern Europe the negative effect of climate change will be mitigated by the technological development. The estimated total biomass production in Europe, on the basis of future yields and surplus land made available for energy crops, may not be sufficient to meet the needs of bioenergy supply as claimed in the European directive 2009/28/EC.

  11. Comparing Existing Pipeline Networks with the Potential Scale of Future U.S. CO2 Pipeline Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dooley, James J.; Dahowski, Robert T.; Davidson, Casie L.

    2008-02-29

    There is growing interest regarding the potential size of a future U.S. dedicated CO2 pipeline infrastructure if carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies are commercially deployed on a large scale. In trying to understand the potential scale of a future national CO2 pipeline network, comparisons are often made to the existing pipeline networks used to deliver natural gas and liquid hydrocarbons to markets within the U.S. This paper assesses the potential scale of the CO2 pipeline system needed under two hypothetical climate policies and compares this to the extant U.S. pipeline infrastructures used to deliver CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and to move natural gas and liquid hydrocarbons from areas of production and importation to markets. The data presented here suggest that the need to increase the size of the existing dedicated CO2 pipeline system should not be seen as a significant obstacle for the commercial deployment of CCS technologies.

  12. Proposal of global flood vulnerability scenarios for evaluating future potential flood losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Y.; Tanoue, M.; Watanabe, S.; Hirabayashi, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Flooding is one of the most hazardous and damaging natural disasters causing serious economic loss and casualties across the world (Jongman et al., 2015). Previous studies showed that the global temperature increase affects regional weather pattern, and several general circulation model (GCM) simulations suggest the increase of flood events in both frequency and magnitude in many parts of the world (Hirabayashi et al., 2013). Effective adaptation to potential flood risks under the warming climate requires an in-depth understanding of both the physical and socioeconomic contributors of the flood risk. To assess the realistic future potential flood risk, future sophisticated vulnerability scenarios associated with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are necessary. In this study we propose a new future vulnerability scenarios in mortality. Our vulnerability scenarios are constructed based on the modeled flood exposure (population potentially suffered by flooding) and a past from 1980 to 2005. All the flood fatality data were classified according to four income levels (high, mid-high, mid-low and low). Our proposed scenarios have three pathways regarding to SSPs; High efficiency (HE) scenario (SSP1, SSP4 (rich country) and SSP5), Medium efficiency (ME) scenario (SSP2), and Low efficiency (LE) scenario (SSP3 and SSP4 (poor country)). The maximum mortality protection level on each category was detected by applying exponential curve fitting with offset term. Slopes in the HE scenario are assumed to be equal to slopes estimated by regression analysis in each category. The slope in the HE scenario is defined by the mean value of all countries' slope value that is approximately -0.33 mortality decreases per year. The EM-DAT mortality data shows a decreasing trend in time in almost all of the countries. Although mortalities in some countries show an increasing trend, this is because these countries were affected by once-in-hundred-years floods after 1990's. The slope in

  13. Exploratory analysis of resource demand and the environmental footprint of future aquaculture development using Life Cycle Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Mungkung, R.; Phillips, M; Castine, S.; Beveridge, M.; Chaiyawannakarn, N.; Nawapakpilai, S.; Waite, R.

    2014-01-01

    Increases in fish demand in the coming decades are projected to be largely met by growth of aquaculture. However, increased aquaculture production is linked to higher demand for natural resources and energy as well as emissions to the environment. This paper explores the use of Life Cycle Assessment to improve knowledge of potential environmental impacts of future aquaculture growth. Different scenarios of future aquaculture development are taken into account in calculating the life cycle env...

  14. The future of Yellowcake: a global assessment of uranium resources and mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudd, Gavin M

    2014-02-15

    Uranium (U) mining remains controversial in many parts of the world, especially in a post-Fukushima context, and often in areas with significant U resources. Although nuclear proponents point to the relatively low carbon intensity of nuclear power compared to fossil fuels, opponents argue that this will be eroded in the future as ore grades decline and energy and greenhouse gas emissions (GGEs) intensity increases as a result. Invariably both sides fail to make use of the increasingly available data reported by some U mines through sustainability reporting - allowing a comprehensive assessment of recent trends in the energy and GGE intensity of U production, as well as combining this with reported mineral resources to allow more comprehensive modelling of future energy and GGEs intensity. In this study, detailed data sets are compiled on reported U resources by deposit type, as well as mine production, energy and GGE intensity. Some important aspects included are the relationship between ore grade, deposit type and recovery, which are crucial in future projections of U mining. Overall, the paper demonstrates that there are extensive U resources known to meet potential short to medium term demand, although the future of U mining remains uncertain due to the doubt about the future of nuclear power as well as a range of complex social, environmental, economic and some site-specific technical issues. PMID:24317167

  15. Hydropower in Turkey: potential and market assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-10-15

    The Turkish hydropower market provides huge opportunities for investors and suppliers. Successful market entry is not easy, however, as the market is still not fully liberalized, the need for local intelligence is large and the competition is increasing. There are also potential political, reputational and environmental risks, typical for an emerging economy. The World Bank global 'Ease of doing business' ranking (2010), ranks Turkey as number 73 of 183 countries. (Author)

  16. Assessing the potential toxicity of resuspended sediment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bonnet, C.; Babut, M.; Ferard, J.F.; Martel, L.; Garric, J.

    2000-05-01

    Two moderately contaminated freshwater sediments (Sorel Harbour, St. Lawrence River, Canada) were subjected to a suspension event. The objective was to assess the environmental impact of the disposal of dredged material in water, in particular, the short-term effects of dumping on the water column and the long-term effects of dredged sediment deposits. In a series of microcosms, the sediments were left to stand for 25 d under flow-through conditions. In a second series of microcosms, sediments were vigorously suspended for 15 min before being left to settle and were submitted to the same treatment as reference sediments during the following 25 d. Physicochemical and biological parameters (Daphnia magna and Hydra attenuata survival) were measured in overlying water throughout the experiment. Sediment toxicity was assessed with Chironomus tentans and Hyalella azteca exposed to sediments collected at both the beginning and end of the 25-d period. Pore-water toxicity was evaluated with D. magna. During the suspension process, in the Sorel Harbour mixed sediment overlying water, the authors observed effects on H. attenuata survival and ammonia and metals (chromium, copper, and zinc) releases. Meanwhile, in reference (nonmixed) and mixed sediments as well as in associated pore waters, there were no significant chemical modifications no biological effects after the 25-d experiments. The developed approach, which attempts to simulate a dumping process, aims at allowing the assessment of the short- and long-term hazards resulting from a resuspension process in overlying water and in resettled sediments using both chemical and biological measurements.

  17. Global and Regional Future Potential for Energy from Municipal Solid Waste

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, J. S.; Smith, S. J.

    2008-12-01

    Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) is a low-cost form of alternative energy with a large potential for future expansion. MSW is already collected and aggregated at population centers where energy demands are high. In addition, it is non-seasonal, and using MSW as an energy source reduces land demand for waste disposal sites in urban areas where land pressures are high. Across the world, the MSW generation rate and its composition vary greatly, but detailed historical data on MSW are not well archived for most of the world. In this study, material flows into the MSW stream are estimated by analyzing production and trade statistics of food, wood, and paper. A life cycle analysis for consumption is used to estimate the amount and composition of MSW for all countries of the world. The primary energy available is estimated based on the energy content of the various waste components. The relationship between GDP, population, per capita GDP, and MSW generation is determined via a regression model. The ObjECTS MiniCAM (integrated assessment model) is used to project the demand for waste-to-energy for the next century for different regions of the world under various international climate policy scenarios. MSW is potentially a low net carbon energy source that can displace fossil energy, and as such, demand for waste-to-energy increases under a climate policy that places a price on carbon emissions.

  18. Are Managed Futures Indices Telling Truth? Biases in CTA Databases and Proposals of Potential Enhancements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Zaremba

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Managed futures are an alternative asset class which has recently became considerably popular among investment industry. However, due to its characteristics, access to managed futures historical performance statistics is relatively confined. All available information originates from commercial and academic databases, reporting to which is entirely voluntary. This situation results in series of biases which distort the managed futures performance in the eyes of investors. The paper consists of two parts. First, the author reviews and describes various biases that influence the reliability of the managed futures indices and databases. The second section encompasses author’s proposals of potential enhancements, which aim to reduce the impact of the biases in order to derive a benchmark that could better reflect characteristics of managed futures investment from the point of view of a potential investor.

  19. Preliminary Assessment Of SIRE's Potential For Contamination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mah, D. L.; Muscari, J. A.

    1981-07-01

    This paper presents the results of a contamination analysis and computer modeling study performed for the Space Infrared Experiment (SIRE) using the Space Transport System (STS) Shuttle Orbiter as the launch vehicle for the proposed seven-day sortie mission. These results will provide an accurate description of the deposition levels on the telescope primary mirror and of the molecular number column density (NCD) along the telescope line-of-sight. The planned Helium Purge System was assumed not to be operating. The contri-bution to the contamination environment of any cargo element, other than SIRE and its pallet, was not considered in this study. The study considers five potential contamination sources, including the flash evaporator vent effluents and the vernier reaction control system (VCS) engines plume constituents.

  20. Compositional effects of organic material in HC potential assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, W. P.; Tsai, L. Y.

    2015-12-01

    Studies of petroleum system is the main theme of hydrocarbon potential assessment, in which the characteristics of source rock is especially worth noticed. In recent years, besides the growth of conventional hydrocarbon resources being rapidly utilized, the exploration of unconventional deposits is getting more and more important. Since Taiwan has a strong energy demand and still highly relied on imported fossil fuel, the development of unconventional gas resources needs to be considered. This research discussed the relationship among characteristics and thermal maturity of different organic material versus their hydrocarbon potential. In order to compare the compositional effects from different organic material, torbanites from Huangxian basin, China and Miocene humic coal from Chuhuangkeng Anticline (one of the most productive oil and gas fields), Taiwan were examined and compared. Torbanites from China had relatively low maturation with vitrinite reflectance 0.38~0.51%, whereas the maturation of humic coal from Chuhuangkeng Anticline are a little bit higher with vitrinite reflectance 0.55~0.6%, plus some methane explored. Methods of study include petrographic analysis, vitrinite reflectance measurement (Ro%), Rock-Eval pyrolysis, and other geochemical parameters. The conclusions were derived after comparing experimental results and the regional geologic information of samples studied. In conclude, sample from China is type I kerogen, and its organic matter is mostly algae, whereas the humic coal sample from Taiwan belongs to type III kerogen. The analytic results indicate that the characteristics organic matters affect their maturity. Even though the thermal history and depositional environments are different in Taiwan and China, their organic micelles still exhibit a similar trend in the process of coalification. The role of maceral composition played in HC potential needs to be considered in future shale gas exploration.

  1. The future of global water stress: An integrated assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlosser, C. Adam; Strzepek, Kenneth; Gao, Xiang; Fant, Charles; Blanc, Élodie; Paltsev, Sergey; Jacoby, Henry; Reilly, John; Gueneau, Arthur

    2014-08-01

    We assess the ability of global water systems, resolved at 282 assessment subregions (ASRs), to the meet water requirements under integrated projections of socioeconomic growth and climate change. We employ a water resource system (WRS) component embedded within the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework in a suite of simulations that consider a range of climate policies and regional hydroclimate changes out to 2050. For many developing nations, water demand increases due to population growth and economic activity have a much stronger effect on water stress than climate change. By 2050, economic growth and population change alone can lead to an additional 1.8 billion people living under at least moderate water stress, with 80% of these located in developing countries. Uncertain regional climate change can play a secondary role to either exacerbate or dampen the increase in water stress. The strongest climate impacts on water stress are observed in Africa, but strong impacts also occur over Europe, Southeast Asia, and North America. The combined effects of socioeconomic growth and uncertain climate change lead to a 1.0-1.3 billion increase of the world's 2050 projected population living with overly exploited water conditions—where total potential water requirements will consistently exceed surface water supply. This would imply that adaptive measures would be taken to meet these surface water shortfalls and include: water-use efficiency, reduced and/or redirected consumption, recurrent periods of water emergencies or curtailments, groundwater depletion, additional interbasin transfers, and overdraw from flow intended to maintain environmental requirements.

  2. A tool to assess potential for alien plant establishment and expansion under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roger, Erin; Duursma, Daisy Englert; Downey, Paul O; Gallagher, Rachael V; Hughes, Lesley; Steel, Jackie; Johnson, Stephen B; Leishman, Michelle R

    2015-08-15

    Predicting the influence of climate change on the potential distribution of naturalised alien plant species is an important and challenging task. While prioritisation of management actions for alien plants under current climatic conditions has been widely adopted, very few systems explicitly incorporate the potential of future changes in climate conditions to influence the distribution of alien plant species. Here, we develop an Australia-wide screening tool to assess the potential of naturalised alien plants to establish and spread under both current and future climatic conditions. The screening tool developed uses five spatially explicit criteria to establish the likelihood of alien plant population establishment and expansion under baseline climate conditions and future climates for the decades 2035 and 2065. Alien plants are then given a threat rating according to current and future threat to enable natural resource managers to focus on those species that pose the largest potential threat now and in the future. To demonstrate the screening tool, we present results for a representative sample of approximately 10% (n = 292) of Australia's known, naturalised alien plant species. Overall, most alien plant species showed decreases in area of habitat suitability under future conditions compared to current conditions and therefore the threat rating of most alien plant species declined between current and future conditions. Use of the screening tool is intended to assist natural resource managers in assessing the threat of alien plant establishment and spread under current and future conditions and thus prioritise detailed weed risk assessments for those species that pose the greatest threat. The screening tool is associated with a searchable database for all 292 alien plant species across a range of spatial scales, available through an interactive web-based portal at http://weedfutures.net/. PMID:26063516

  3. US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John; Jacobs, Kathy; Lempert, Rob; Mearns, L. O.; Melillo, Jerry; Mote, Phil; O' Brien, Sheila; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, Alex; Sheppard, Stephen; Vallario, Robert W.; Wiek, Arnim; Wilbanks, Thomas

    2011-10-01

    This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for release in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes

  4. ASSESSMENT OF HOUSEHOLD CARBON FOOTPRINT REDUCTION POTENTIALS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, Klaas Jan; Homan, Greg; Brown, Rich; Worrell, Ernst; Masanet, Eric

    2009-04-15

    The term ?household carbon footprint? refers to the total annual carbon emissions associated with household consumption of energy, goods, and services. In this project, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory developed a carbon footprint modeling framework that characterizes the key underlying technologies and processes that contribute to household carbon footprints in California and the United States. The approach breaks down the carbon footprint by 35 different household fuel end uses and 32 different supply chain fuel end uses. This level of end use detail allows energy and policy analysts to better understand the underlying technologies and processes contributing to the carbon footprint of California households. The modeling framework was applied to estimate the annual home energy and supply chain carbon footprints of a prototypical California household. A preliminary assessment of parameter uncertainty associated with key model input data was also conducted. To illustrate the policy-relevance of this modeling framework, a case study was conducted that analyzed the achievable carbon footprint reductions associated with the adoption of energy efficient household and supply chain technologies.

  5. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    activities. The method results in the development of LULC maps providing insights into a range of alternative futures using a scope of socio-economic and environmental conditions. A landslides assessment model, the ALICE model is then used as a final tool to analyze the potential impacts of simulated LUCC on landslide risks and the consequences in terms of vulnerability, e.g. changes in disaster risk allocation or characterization, degree of perturbation. This assessment intends to provide insights onto the potential future development of the valley to help identify areas at stake and to guide decision makers to help the risk management. Preliminary results show strong differences of futures land use and land cover maps that have significant influence on landslides hazards.

  6. Turbulence assessment at potential turbine sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniels, A. [Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI (United States)

    1996-12-31

    As opposed to a fixed anemometer, the Tala kite is free to move in the air. The motion of the kite is not random, it moves with or against the speed gradient towards the center of passing turbulence events of higher or lower speeds thus allowing the kite to measure event maximum or minimum speed rather than the speed at some unknown distance from the event center like a fixed anemometer. This behavior is confirmed both by a theoretical aerodynamics analysis of the kite motion and by data from a field study where kite and hot film anemometer (HFA) events, defined by the rain flow count method, were compared with flap events on a rotating turbine blade. The HFAs simulated too few events lasting too long while the kites reproduced both the number of events and event periods remarkably close. It is concluded that the kite is the optimal tool for measuring turbulence at potential turbine sites. Kite turbulence can form the bases for economic return estimates and an example is given where less windy sites could be more economical than other more turbulent higher speed sites. 13 refs., 8 figs.

  7. Beyond offshoring: assess your company's global potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Diana

    2004-12-01

    In the past few years, companies have become aware that they can slash costs by offshoring: moving jobs to lower-wage locations. But this practice is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of how globalization can transform industries, according to research by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI). The institute's yearlong study suggests that by streamlining their production processes and supply chains globally, rather than just nationally or regionally, companies can lower their costs-as we've seen in the consumer-electronics and PC industries. Companies can save as much as 70% of their total costs through globalization--50% from offshoring, 5% from training and business-task redesign, and 15% from process improvements. But they don't have to stop there. The cost reductions make it possible to lower prices and expand into new markets, attracting whole new classes of customers. To date, however, few businesses have recognized the full scope of performance improvements that globalization makes possible, much less developed sound strategies for capturing those opportunities. In this article, Diana Farrell, director of MGI, offers a step-by-step approach to doing both things. Among her suggestions: Assess where your industry falls along the globalization spectrum, because not all sectors of the economy face the same challenges and opportunities at the same time. Also, pay attention to production, regulatory, and organizational barriers to globalization. If any of these can be changed, size up the cost-saving (and revenue-generating) opportunities that will emerge for your company as a result of those changes. Farrell also defines the five stages of globalization-market entry, product specialization, value chain disaggregation, value chain reengineering, and the creation of new markets-and notes the different levers for cutting costs and creating value that companies can use in each phase. PMID:15605568

  8. Assessment of bioenergy potential on marginal land in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhuang, Dafang; Jiang, Dong; Liu, Lei; Huang, Yaohuan [Data Center for Resources and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101 (China)

    2011-02-15

    Bioenergy developed from energy plants will play a more and more important role in future energy supply. Much attention has been paid to energy plants in recent years. As China has fairly limited cultivated land resources, the bioenergy development may mainly rely on the exploitation of marginal land. This study focused on the assessment of marginal land resources and bio-fuel potential in China using newly acquired data and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. A multi-factor analysis method was adopted to identify marginal lands for bioenergy development in China, with data of several main types of energy plants on the eco-environmental requirements and natural habits employed. A combined planting zonation strategy was proposed, which was targeted for five species of energy plants including Helianthus tuberous L., Pistacia chinensis, Jatropha curcas L., Cassava and Vernicia fordii. The results indicated that total area of marginal land exploitable for development of energy plants on a large scale was about 43.75 million ha. If 10% of this marginal land was fully utilized for growing the energy plants, the production of bio-fuel would be 13.39 million tons. (author)

  9. Oil spill risk assessment : probability and impact analyses with future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper described a risk assessment methodology for oil spills in Washington State. The methodology involved analyzing spill probability by source, oil type, spill volume, season, and geographic zone. The method was used to develop probability distributions for actual spill volumes and probabilistic-based potential spill volumes for current and future risk assessments. The potential impact of spills based on geographic location, season, oil type and oil volume were assessed for inland freshwater and marine locations. Impacts were quantified and applied to spill distributions in order to determine risk scores. Risk quotients for each sector were divided by the grand total of risk quotients in order to derive a percentage or proportion value of risk. The risk scores were then used to develop relative risk matrices by source type and geographic zone for actual spill volumes. A customized spill database was developed to incorporate records of oil spill incidents in Washington waters of at least 50 gallons. Potential worst-case discharge (WCD) volumes were calculated for each spill. It was concluded that the methodology provides a state-of-the-art approach to evaluate the impact of a spill. 7 refs., 16 tabs., 3 figs

  10. Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (ORION)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mott, Diana L.; Bigler, Mark A.

    2017-01-01

    NASA uses two HRA assessment methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is still expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a PRA model that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more problematic. In order to determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the assumptions and expectations expressed in the assessments will be needed when the procedures, flight rules and operational requirements are developed and then

  11. An Analysis of Current and Future Wind Energy Gain Potential for Central Iowa

    OpenAIRE

    Sharifi, Farrokh; Hashemi, Nastaran

    2015-01-01

    Using a significant quantity of fossil fuels has adverse impacts on our lives and will affect future generations. Additionally, there are limited and decreasing numbers of nonrenewable resources around the world. In contrast, renewable resources are not depleted and provide energy with negligible pollution. Wind energy is one of the more common renewable energy resources. This project aims to evaluate Iowa's wind energy potential and to provide suggestions to improve the future well‐being of ...

  12. Considering Future Potential Regarding Structural Diversity in Selection of Forest Reserves

    OpenAIRE

    Lundström, Johanna; Öhman, Karin; Rönnqvist, Mikael; Gustafsson, Lena

    2016-01-01

    A rich structural diversity in forests promotes biodiversity. Forests are dynamic and therefore it is crucial to consider future structural potential when selecting reserves, to make robust conservation decisions. We analyzed forests in boreal Sweden based on 17,599 National Forest Inventory (NFI) plots with the main aim to understand how effectiveness of reserves depends on the time dimension in the selection process, specifically by considering future structural diversity. In the study both...

  13. Left ventricular function assessment in cirrhosis: Current methods and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampaio, Francisco; Pimenta, Joana

    2016-01-01

    Cirrhotic cardiomyopathy has been defined as a chronic cardiac dysfunction in patients with cirrhosis characterized by impaired contractile responsiveness to stress and/or altered diastolic relaxation with electrophysiological abnormalities in the absence of other known cardiac disease. Non-invasive cardiovascular imaging modalities play a major role in unmasking systolic and diastolic dysfunction in patients with cirrhosis. Echocardiography has been the most commonly used modality for assessing myocardial function in these patients. Conventional echocardiographic indices rely on several assumptions that may limit their applicability in patients with a hyperdynamic circulation. Newer imaging modalities may contribute to a more accurate diagnosis of cardiovascular abnormalities in cirrhotic patients, thereby influencing clinical management. We aimed to review the different non-invasive imaging technologies currently used for assessing left ventricular systolic and diastolic function in cirrhosis, as well as to describe new imaging modalities with potential clinical applicability in the near future. PMID:26755864

  14. Future Diet Scenarios and Their Effect on Regional and Global Biofuel Potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, J.; hvid, A.

    2012-04-01

    Food production has been one of the most significant ways in which humans have changed the surface of the Earth. It is projected that further intensification of agriculture will be necessary to meet a growing population and the increased demand for calories from animal products. This would require substantially more land and resources devoted to animal production. However, globally, the proportion of per capita caloric intake from animal to total caloric intake has remained relatively constant for the last 50 years at slightly above 15%. Nevertheless, there are large discrepancies across regions and through time. For example, northern European countries derive over 30% of calories from animal products, while India is under 10%; between 1961 and 2007, China's per capita consumption of animal calories has increased by over a factor of ten, while in the US, animal calorie consumption has remained constant. In general, per capita consumption of animal products is lower in developing countries than in developed countries, and it is commonly assumed that future animal product consumption will increase as developing countries become wealthier. On the other hand, wealthier countries are remaining constant or even decreasing their proportional consumption of animal calories, and this could be a different way that future diets may evolve. We create different future scenarios for calorie demand from vegetal products, beef, sheep and goat, pork, poultry, and dairy based on historical national trends and estimated income elasticities for these various food products. The extreme scenarios are one in which the world evolves to a highly vegetal calorie diet and, on the other extreme, one in which the world evolves to diets with high meat consumption. Intermediate scenarios include projections of current trends and one in which the world moves to a healthy balanced diet given current recommendations. Using DTU-GCAM, and global integrated assessment model with an included land use

  15. Assessment of risk of potential exposures on facilities industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This work develops a model to evaluate potential exposures on open facilities of industrial radiography in Brazil. This model will decisively contribute to optimize operational, radiological protection and safety procedures, to prevent radiation accidents and to reduce human errors in industrial radiography. The probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology was very useful to assess potential exposures. The open facilities of industrial radiography were identified as the scenario to be analyzed in what concerns the evaluation of potential exposures, due to their high accidents indices. The results of the assessment of potential exposures confirm that the industrial radiography in Brazil is a high-risk practice as classified by the IAEA. The risk of potential exposure was estimated to be 40,5 x 10-2 per year in Brazil, having as main consequences injuries to the workers' hands and arms. In the world scene, the consequences are worst, leading to fatalities of people, thus emphasizing the high risk of industrial radiography. (author)

  16. Future of car-sharing in Germany: Customer potential estimation, diffusion and ecological effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The article summarises selected key results of the project 'Future of Car-Sharing in Germany', funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research. The target of the research was to improve the informational basis for the traffic and environmental assessment of car-sharing in Germany by means of an empirically based estimation of the medium-term perspective (time horizon 2020). Intermediate results were presented at the ECEEE congress 2005.Basis of the demand analyses, which were aligned to the milieu concept, was provided by two surveys (a non-representative survey of circa 500 customers and former customers and a representative survey of around 1,500 non-customers). In the interviews two service scenarios of a 'new' Car-Sharing in the shape of short-term car rental without ecological requirements were used. The analysis of the surveys was differentiated on two levels: On general level covering the whole sample and on the level of sub-samples covering the different milieus. Findings are provided with regard to prospective customers (social milieu affiliation, social profiles, notional using patterns) and backgrounds of their interest in short-term car rental as well as results of a customer potential estimation and a traffic and eco-balance. The results show that a diffusion of short-term car rentals appears feasible with an eco-balance remaining positive. For various reasons, the market development to be achieved by the year 2020, however, should be relatively limited. Similar is true for the potential contribution of car-sharing to a sustainable mobility altogether

  17. Dynamic Assessment, Potential Giftedness and Mathematics Achievement in Elementary School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popa, Nicoleta Laura; Pauc, Ramona Loredana

    2015-01-01

    Dynamic assessment is currently discussed in educational literature as one of the most promising practices in stimulating learning among various groups of students, including gifted and potentially gifted students. The present study investigates effects of dynamic assessment on mathematics achievement among elementary school students, with…

  18. Bioenergy potentials from forestry in 2050 : An assessment of the drivers that determine the potentials

    OpenAIRE

    Smeets, E.M.W.; Faaij, A.P.C.

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the global energy production potential of woody biomass from forestry for the year 2050 using a bottom-up analysis of key factors. Woody biomass from forestry was defined as all of the aboveground woody biomass of trees, including all products made from woody biomass. This includes the harvesting, processing and use of woody biomass. The projection was performed by comparing the future demand with the future supply of wood, based on existing databases...

  19. The Future of Career Technical Education (CTE) Assessment. Executive Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Council of Chief State School Officers, 2011

    2011-01-01

    On behalf of the states that participated in the 2009-10 State Collaborative on Assessment and Student Standards (SCASS) on Technical Skills Assessment, this paper addresses two significant issues facing the nation: ensuring that more students are both college and career ready and addressing the need for better and more quality data to evaluate…

  20. Biogas. Present situation and future potential; Biogas. Nulaege och framtida potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nordberg, Ulf [Swedish Inst. of Agricultural and Environmental Engineering, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2006-12-15

    The report contains a general overview of present technology concerning production of biogas through anaerobic breakdown of easily recycled organic material as well as implementation areas for biogas. The work has been done in three parts: description of present situation, technical limitations and development efforts, synthesis. In Sweden there are more than 220 biogas plants for handling crops, sludge and organic residue material. Production of biogas occurs primarily at sewage treatment plants and landfills. Total capacity in 2004 was approx. 300,000 m{sup 3} anaerobic chamber volume, of which approx. 73% was utilised. Planned increase in capacity was approx. 125,000 m{sup 3} or approx. 42%.The substrate brought to the plants was comprised of approx. 45% manure, 30% offal, 10% biowaste from households and 15% other substrates. Calculations based on the energy content of input substrate indicate that approx. 10% of the gas was from manure, 65% from offal, 25% from household waste and 5% from other substrates. In 2005 a total of 1,5 TWh of biogas was produced in Sweden. Biogas is used primarily for heating purposes followed by use as vehicle fuel and in electricity production. More than 55 GWh is torched away. Sewage treatment plants are not included. Interest in using biogas as fuel has increased. The theoretical biogas potential in Sweden has been calculated to be 14-17 TWh per year, of which approx. 80% is found in agriculturally related biomass. Approximately 3 TWh originates from various types of household and industrial waste. Generally it can be said that there is a large potential for improvement and increased efficiency within the whole chain of substrate collection, preparatory treatment of substrates, operational control of biogas plants, upgrade/treatment and use of gas as well as spreading and use of biofertilizer. The greatest increase in substrate will come from the amount of crops from the agricultural sector. The contacts between farmers and plant

  1. The New SAT: The Future of Transition Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graff, A. Steven

    1993-01-01

    Describes changes being made in the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) and other standardized tests. Highlights include a history of standardized college entrance testing; the change process of the SAT; descriptions of the new SAT I Reasoning Tests and SAT II Subject Tests; comparisons between the old and the new SAT; and future possibilities. (LRW)

  2. The future of Yellowcake: A global assessment of uranium resources and mining

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uranium (U) mining remains controversial in many parts of the world, especially in a post-Fukushima context, and often in areas with significant U resources. Although nuclear proponents point to the relatively low carbon intensity of nuclear power compared to fossil fuels, opponents argue that this will be eroded in the future as ore grades decline and energy and greenhouse gas emissions (GGEs) intensity increases as a result. Invariably both sides fail to make use of the increasingly available data reported by some U mines through sustainability reporting — allowing a comprehensive assessment of recent trends in the energy and GGE intensity of U production, as well as combining this with reported mineral resources to allow more comprehensive modelling of future energy and GGEs intensity. In this study, detailed data sets are compiled on reported U resources by deposit type, as well as mine production, energy and GGE intensity. Some important aspects included are the relationship between ore grade, deposit type and recovery, which are crucial in future projections of U mining. Overall, the paper demonstrates that there are extensive U resources known to meet potential short to medium term demand, although the future of U mining remains uncertain due to the doubt about the future of nuclear power as well as a range of complex social, environmental, economic and some site-specific technical issues. - Highlights: • An extensive data set on global uranium resources and classified by deposit type. • Comprehensive analysis of key trends, such as ore grades and recovery rates. • Energy and carbon intensity of production shows an increase as ore grades decline. • Mine rehabilitation often shows poor success or accounts of long-term effectiveness. • Real constraints on nuclear power remain safety and costs compared to alternatives

  3. Customer Satisfaction and Customer Loyalty as Predictors of Future Business Potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskildsen, Jacob Kjær; Kristensen, Kai

    2007-01-01

    This paper analyzes the relationship between customer satisfaction, customer loyalty and the future business potential of existing customers. The data for the analysis comes from the Danish Customer Satisfaction Index 2006. Here a total of app. 2000 private customers evaluated their...

  4. Customer satisfaction and customer loyalty as predictors of future business potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskildsen, Jacob Kjær; Kristensen, Kai

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyses the relationship between customer satisfaction, customer loyalty and the future business potential of existing customers. The data for the analysis come from the Danish Customer Satisfaction Index 2006. Here a total of approximately 2000 private customers evaluated their...

  5. The Development of B2C E-Commerce in Greece: Current Situation and Future Potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kardaras, Dimitris; Papathanassiou, Eleutherios

    2000-01-01

    Reports on the results of a survey of 120 companies in Greece that evaluated the potential of business to customer (B2C) Internet applications and investigated how the Internet and e-commerce can offer new opportunities for businesses to improve their customers' satisfaction. Discusses electronic commerce problems and future technology. (Contains…

  6. Future teachers’ perception on the assessing systems for their learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Víctor Manuel López Pator

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper is aimed at analysing the students’ perception on assessment and grading systems, instruments and techniques used in Teacher Education (TE. In order to determine the current situation for this assessment in TE a questionnaire containing four subscales was developed with a high reliability degree. Data obtained are applied to a simple of 635 students from 7 different colleges and analysed with both descriptive and inferential statistics using single-factor ANOVA. The outcomes show that assessing practices oriented towards learning are still minority practices in TE. On the other hand, the existence of so many significant differences between Primary Teacher Education and Secondary Teacher Education is worrisome. The analyses also suggest there are few subjects containing assessing styles oriented towards learning, although they include very varied and rich strategies.

  7. Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: Comparative aspects and future perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dorne, J.L.C.M., E-mail: jean-lou.dorne@efsa.europa.eu [Emerging Risk Unit, Via Carlo Magno 1A, 43126 Parma (Italy); Fink-Gremmels, J. [Utrecht University, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Yalelaan 104, 3584 CM Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2013-08-01

    Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. - Highlights: ► Principles of human and animal health risk assessment. ► Data gaps for each step of animal health risk assessment. ► Implications of animal risk assessment on human risk assessment. ► Future perspectives on chemical risk assessment.

  8. Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: Comparative aspects and future perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. - Highlights: ► Principles of human and animal health risk assessment. ► Data gaps for each step of animal health risk assessment. ► Implications of animal risk assessment on human risk assessment. ► Future perspectives on chemical risk assessment

  9. Self-Assessment in Librarianship: Current Practices and Future Possibilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ania Dymarz

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The authors of this qualitative study set out to investigate self-assessment practices within the library profession. The researchers conducted semi-structured interviews with a purposeful sample of nine librarians coming from a range of library settings and possessing a diversity of library experience. Interviews were then transcribed and coded in NVIVO to identify emergent themes. This paper details some of the results of that study, highlighting motivations, limitations, and strategies with regard to self-assessment. The findings present a summary of a range of approaches to the practice of assessment as reported by the interviewees. One area of possible growth for our profession, as highlighted by the findings, is in the development of peer networks as a support for the individual practice of self-assessment. While the results of this small case study cannot be generalized, the authors hope these preliminary findings can open up the conversation around self-assessment both for individual librarians and for those librarians and managers working to shape their workplace culture.

  10. Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauser, Wolfram; Klepper, Gernot; Zabel, Florian; Delzeit, Ruth; Hank, Tobias; Putzenlechner, Birgitta; Calzadilla, Alvaro

    2015-01-01

    Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today's cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers' profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification. PMID:26558436

  11. 17 CFR 1.15 - Risk assessment reporting requirements for futures commission merchants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment reporting... Related Reporting Requirements § 1.15 Risk assessment reporting requirements for futures commission... pursuant to § 240.17h-2T of this title, or such other risk assessment regulations as the Securities...

  12. Effective peer assessment processes: : Research findings and future directions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sluijsmans, Dominique; Zundert, Marjo van; Merriënboer, J.J.G. van

    2010-01-01

    Despite the popularity of peer assessment (PA), gaps in the literature make it difficult to describe exactly what constitutes effective PA. In a literature review, we divided PA into variables and then investigated their interrelatedness. We found that (a) PA's psychometric qualities are improved by

  13. Research Agenda: Priorities for Future Research in Second Language Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoynoff, Stephen

    2012-01-01

    In a recent state-of-the-art (SoA) article (Stoynoff 2009), I reviewed some of the trends in language assessment research and considered them in light of validation activities associated with four widely used international measures of L2 English ability. This Thinking Allowed article presents an opportunity to revisit the four broad areas of L2…

  14. Service Quality and Customer Satisfaction: An Assessment and Future Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernon, Peter; Nitecki, Danuta A.; Altman, Ellen

    1999-01-01

    Reviews the literature of library and information science to examine issues related to service quality and customer satisfaction in academic libraries. Discusses assessment, the application of a business model to higher education, a multiple constituency approach, decision areas regarding service quality, resistance to service quality, and future…

  15. Potential common radiation problems for components and diagnostics in future magnetic and inertial confinement fusion devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This work aims at identifying common potential problems that future fusion devices will encounter for both magnetic and inertial confinement approaches in order to promote joint efforts and to avoid duplication of research. Firstly, a comparison of radiation environments found in both fusion reaction chambers will be presented. Then, wall materials, optical components, cables and electronics will be discussed, pointing to possible future areas of common research. Finally, a brief discussion of experimental techniques available to simulate the radiation effect on materials is included.

  16. Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report documents the future human actions, FHA, considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Site (see further the Main report /SKB 2011/). The purpose of this report is to provide an account of general considerations concerning FHA, the methodology applied in SR-Site to assess FHA, the aspects of FHA needed to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository and to select and analyse representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis. The main focus of this report is a time period when institutional control has ceased to be effective, thereby permitting inadvertent intrusion. However, a brief discussion of the earlier period when the repository has been closed, sealed and continuously kept under institutional control is also provided. General The potential exposure to large quantities of radiotoxic material is an inescapable consequence of the deposition of spent nuclear fuel in a final repository, and consequently intrusion into the repository needs to be considered in repository design and safety assessment. In accordance with ICRP recommendations /ICRP 2000/, intrusion in the post-closure phase of institutional control and beyond is primarily prevented through the design of the repository. In addition to that there will presumably continue to be safeguards measures, preservation of information (record keeping) and possibly some sort of markers placed at the site. During the institutional control period, activities at the site have to be restricted or directed if they have the potential to interfere with or hinder surveillance of the site, but this does not necessarily rule out all forms of access to the area. Also the fact that the repository contains fissile materials is an important aspect. Control of safeguards measures will most likely be upheld by national as well as international agencies. Furthermore, the

  17. Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-12-15

    This report documents the future human actions, FHA, considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Site (see further the Main report /SKB 2011/). The purpose of this report is to provide an account of general considerations concerning FHA, the methodology applied in SR-Site to assess FHA, the aspects of FHA needed to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository and to select and analyse representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis. The main focus of this report is a time period when institutional control has ceased to be effective, thereby permitting inadvertent intrusion. However, a brief discussion of the earlier period when the repository has been closed, sealed and continuously kept under institutional control is also provided. General The potential exposure to large quantities of radiotoxic material is an inescapable consequence of the deposition of spent nuclear fuel in a final repository, and consequently intrusion into the repository needs to be considered in repository design and safety assessment. In accordance with ICRP recommendations /ICRP 2000/, intrusion in the post-closure phase of institutional control and beyond is primarily prevented through the design of the repository. In addition to that there will presumably continue to be safeguards measures, preservation of information (record keeping) and possibly some sort of markers placed at the site. During the institutional control period, activities at the site have to be restricted or directed if they have the potential to interfere with or hinder surveillance of the site, but this does not necessarily rule out all forms of access to the area. Also the fact that the repository contains fissile materials is an important aspect. Control of safeguards measures will most likely be upheld by national as well as international agencies. Furthermore, the

  18. An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials

    CERN Document Server

    Mercure, J F

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an assessment of global economic energy potentials for all major natural energy resources. This work is based on both an extensive literature review and calculations using natural resource assessment data. Economic potentials are presented in the form of cost-supply curves, in terms of energy flows for renewable energy sources, or fixed amounts for fossil and nuclear resources, with strong emphasis on uncertainty, using a consistent methodology that allow direct comparisons to be made. In order to interpolate through available resource assessment data and associated uncertainty, a theoretical framework and a computational methodology are given based on statistical properties of different types of resources, justified empirically by the data, and used throughout. This work aims to provide a global database for natural energy resources ready to integrate into models of energy systems, enabling to introduce at the same time uncertainty over natural resource assessments. The supplementary mate...

  19. Current Animal Models of Postoperative Spine Infection and Potential Future Advances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra eStavrakis

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Implant related infection following spine surgery is a devastating complication for patients and can potentially lead to significant neurological compromise, disability, morbidity, and even mortality. This paper provides an overview of the existing animal models of postoperative spine infection and highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each model. In addition there is discussion regarding potential modifications to these animal models to better evaluate preventative and treatment strategies for this challenging complication. Current models are effective in simulating surgical procedures but fail to evaluate infection longitudinally using multiple techniques. Potential future modifications to these models include using advanced imaging technologies to evaluate infection, use of bioluminescent bacterial species, and testing of novel treatment strategies against multiple bacterial strains. There is potential to establish a postoperative spine infection model using smaller animals, such as mice, as these would be a more cost-effective screening tool for potential therapeutic interventions.

  20. Increasing potential risk of a global aquatic invader in Europe in contrast to other continents under future climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuan Liu

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used ecological niche models (ENMs to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii, which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely

  1. Increasing Potential Risk of a Global Aquatic Invader in Europe in Contrast to Other Continents under Future Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xuan; Guo, Zhongwei; Ke, Zunwei; Wang, Supen; Li, Yiming

    2011-01-01

    Background Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. Methodology/Principal Findings We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. Conclusions/Significance Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop

  2. Palliative care in India: Situation assessment and future scope

    OpenAIRE

    S S Kar; Subitha, L.; S Iswarya

    2015-01-01

    Palliative care is an approach that improves the quality of life of patients and their families facing the problems associated with life-threatening illness, through prevention and relief of suffering by means of early identification, assessment and treatment of pain, and other problems – physical, psychosocial, and spiritual. It is estimated that in India the total number of people who need palliative care is likely to be 5.4 million people a year. Though palliative care services have been i...

  3. Assessment of underground water potential zones using modern geomatics technologies in Jhansi district, Uttar Pradesh, India.

    OpenAIRE

    Pandey, N. K.; Shukla, A K; S Shukla; M Pandey

    2014-01-01

    Ground water is a distinguished component of the hydrologic cycle. Surface water storage and ground water withdrawal are traditional engineering approaches which will continue to be followed in the future. The uncertainty about the occurrence, distribution and quality aspect of the ground water and the energy requirement for its withdrawal impose restriction on exploitation of ground water. The main objective of the study is assessment of underground water potential zones of Jhansi c...

  4. Community Health Needs Assessment: Potential for Population Health Improvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennel, Cara L; McLeroy, Kenneth R; Burdine, James N; Matarrita-Cascante, David; Wang, Jia

    2016-06-01

    Derived from various health care policies and initiatives, the concept of population health has been newly adopted by health care and medicine. In particular, it has been suggested that the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act provision that requires nonprofit hospitals to conduct a community health needs assessment (CHNA) and implement strategies to address health priorities has the potential to improve population health. A mixed methods study design was used to examine the potential for population health improvements to occur through the Internal Revenue Service (IRS)-mandated nonprofit hospital CHNA and planning processes. Methods involved a 2-phased approach composed of (1) content analysis of 95 CHNA/implementation strategies reports and (2) interviews with key informants, consultants, and community stakeholders involved in CHNA and planning processes. Although this is a great opportunity for the nonprofit hospital assessment and planning processes to influence population health outcomes, the findings from the first 3-year assessment and planning cycle (2011-2013) suggest this is unlikely. As nonprofit hospitals begin the second 3-year assessment and planning cycle, this article offers recommendations to increase the potential for nonprofit hospitals to improve population health. These recommendations include clarifying the purpose of IRS CHNA regulations, engaging community stakeholders in collaborative assessment and planning, understanding disease etiology and identifying and addressing broader determinants of health, adopting a public health assessment and planning model, and emphasizing population health improvement. (Population Health Management 2016;19:178-186). PMID:26440370

  5. Qualitative assessment of patients’ attitudes and expectations towards BCIs and implications for future technology development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silke eSchicktanz

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Brain-Computer-Interfaces (BCIs are important for the next generation of neuro-prosthesis innovations. Only few pilot projects have tested patients’ abilities to control BCIs as well as their satisfaction with the offered technologies. On the one hand, little is known about patients’ moral attitudes towards the benefit-risk-ratio of BCIs as well as their needs, priorities, and expectations. On the other hand, ethics experts intensively discuss the general risks of BCIs as well as the limits of neuro-enhancement. To our knowledge, we present here the first qualitative interview study with ten chronic patients matching the potential user categories for motor and communication BCIs to assess their practical and moral attitudes towards this technology. The interviews reveal practical and moral attitudes towards motor BCIs that can impact future technology development. We discuss our empirical findings on patients’ perspectives and compare them to neuroscientists’ and ethicists’ perspectives. This analysis indicates only partial overlap between the potential users’ and the experts’ assessments of BCI-technology. It points out the importance of considering the needs and desires of the targeted patient group. Based on our findings, we suggest a multi-fold approach to the development of clinical BCIs, rooted in the participatory technology-development. We conclude that clinical BCI development needs to be explored in a disease-related and culturally sensitive way.

  6. An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents an assessment of global economic energy potentials for all major natural energy resources. This work is based on both an extensive literature review and calculations using natural resource assessment data. Economic potentials are presented in the form of cost-supply curves, in terms of energy flows for renewable energy sources, or fixed amounts for fossil and nuclear resources, with strong emphasis on uncertainty, using a consistent methodology that allow direct comparisons to be made. In order to interpolate through available resource assessment data and associated uncertainty, a theoretical framework and a computational methodology are given based on statistical properties of different types of resources, justified empirically by the data, and used throughout. This work aims to provide a global database for natural energy resources ready to integrate into models of energy systems, enabling to introduce at the same time uncertainty over natural resource assessments. The supplementary material provides theoretical details and tables of data and parameters that enable this extensive database to be adapted to a variety of energy systems modelling frameworks. -- Highlights: ► Global energy potentials for all major energy resources are reported. ► Theory and methodology for calculating economic energy potentials is given. ► An uncertainty analysis for all energy economic potentials is carried out.

  7. Transportation Energy Futures Series. Potential for Energy Efficiency Improvement Beyond the Light-Duty-Vehicle Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vyas, A. D. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Patel, D. M. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Bertram, K. M. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2013-02-01

    Considerable research has focused on energy efficiency and fuel substitution options for light-duty vehicles, while much less attention has been given to medium- and heavy-duty trucks, buses, aircraft, marine vessels, trains, pipeline, and off-road equipment. This report brings together the salient findings from an extensive review of literature on future energy efficiency options for these non-light-duty modes. Projected activity increases to 2050 are combined with forecasts of overall fuel efficiency improvement potential to estimate the future total petroleum and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to current levels. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  8. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Potential for Energy Efficiency Improvement Beyond the Light-Duty-Vehicle Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vyas, A. D.; Patel, D. M.; Bertram, K. M.

    2013-03-01

    Considerable research has focused on energy efficiency and fuel substitution options for light-duty vehicles, while much less attention has been given to medium- and heavy-duty trucks, buses, aircraft, marine vessels, trains, pipeline, and off-road equipment. This report brings together the salient findings from an extensive review of literature on future energy efficiency options for these non-light-duty modes. Projected activity increases to 2050 are combined with forecasts of overall fuel efficiency improvement potential to estimate the future total petroleum and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to current levels. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  9. Assessment of hydroenergetic potential on the Reka River at Topolc

    OpenAIRE

    Bedek, Nejc

    2014-01-01

    Due to increasing demand for electricity, the exploit of renewable energy resources has become essential. Despite the small amount of electricity produced by small hydropower plants, have such investments many other advantages. Before starting a project of small hydro power plant, it is vital to analyze quality input data of selected location for using water potential. In assessment of hydroenergetic potential of the Reka river in Topolc, the point of old object revitalization has been determ...

  10. Potential impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on future agricultural land use in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farzan Ahmed, Kazi; Wang, Guiling; You, Liangzhi; Yu, Miao

    2016-02-01

    Agriculture is a key component of anthropogenic land use and land cover changes that influence regional climate. Meanwhile, in addition to socioeconomic drivers, climate is another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In this study, we compare the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa using a prototype land use projection (LandPro) algorithm. The algorithm is based on a balance between food supply and demand, and accounts for the impact of socioeconomic drivers on the demand side and the impact of climate-induced crop yield changes on the supply side. The impact of human decision-making on land use is explicitly considered through multiple "what-if" scenarios. In the application to West Africa, future crop yield changes were simulated by a process-based crop model driven with future climate projections from a regional climate model, and future changes of food demand is projected using a model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade. Without agricultural intensification, the climate-induced decrease in crop yield together with future increases in food demand is found to cause a significant increase in cropland areas at the expense of forest and grassland by the mid-century. The increase in agricultural land use is primarily climate-driven in the western part of West Africa and socioeconomically driven in the eastern part. Analysis of results from multiple scenarios of crop area allocation suggests that human adaptation characterized by science-informed decision-making can potentially minimize future land use changes in many parts of the region.

  11. Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

    OpenAIRE

    Juan A Añel; Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Paul J Hearty; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of similar to 500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere a...

  12. A multi-level strategy for anticipating future glacier lake formation and associated hazard potentials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Frey

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available In the course of glacier retreat, new glacier lakes can develop. As such lakes can be a source of natural hazards, strategies for predicting future glacier lake formation are important for an early planning of safety measures. In this article, a multi-level strategy for the identification of overdeepened parts of the glacier beds and, hence, sites with potential future lake formation, is presented. At the first two of the four levels of this strategy, glacier bed overdeepenings are estimated qualitatively and over large regions based on a digital elevation model (DEM and digital glacier outlines. On level 3, more detailed and laborious models are applied for modeling the glacier bed topography over smaller regions; and on level 4, special situations must be investigated in-situ with detailed measurements such as geophysical soundings. The approaches of the strategy are validated using historical data from Trift Glacier, where a lake formed over the past decade. Scenarios of future glacier lakes are shown for the two test regions Aletsch and Bernina in the Swiss Alps. In the Bernina region, potential future lake outbursts are modeled, using a GIS-based hydrological flow routing model. As shown by a corresponding test, the ASTER GDEM and the SRTM DEM are both suitable to be used within the proposed strategy. Application of this strategy in other mountain regions of the world is therefore possible as well.

  13. Virtual water content of temperate cereals and maize: Present and potential future patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fader, Marianela; Rost, Stefanie; Müller, Christoph; Bondeau, Alberte; Gerten, Dieter

    2010-04-01

    SummaryKnowledge of the virtual water content (VWC) of crops and especially its possible future developments is helpful for improvements in water productivity and water management, which are necessary at global scale due to rising demand for food, the necessity to ease present and future water scarcity, and the reduction of poverty. Using a dynamic global vegetation and water balance model (LPJmL), this study quantifies the VWC of two of the most important crop types worldwide, temperate cereals and maize, at high spatial resolution (0.5°). We analyzed present conditions (1999-2003) and also for the first time also for scenarios of future climate and increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations (2041-2070; HadCM3, ECHAM5 and CCSM3 climate models, A2 emissions scenario). VWC presently differs significantly among regions: highest values are common in large parts of Africa (>2 m 3 kg -1), and lowest values were found e.g. for Central Europe (South Africa, Argentina, Australia and South East Asia—are projected to become less water efficient (higher VWC) for at least one of the crop types. CO 2 fertilisation was simulated to generally reduce VWC, though realisation of this effect in the field will depend, for example, on the intensity of nutrient management in the future. The potentially adverse future changes in VWC found here pose a challenge to water management efforts and eventually global trade policies.

  14. Considering Future Potential Regarding Structural Diversity in Selection of Forest Reserves.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johanna Lundström

    Full Text Available A rich structural diversity in forests promotes biodiversity. Forests are dynamic and therefore it is crucial to consider future structural potential when selecting reserves, to make robust conservation decisions. We analyzed forests in boreal Sweden based on 17,599 National Forest Inventory (NFI plots with the main aim to understand how effectiveness of reserves depends on the time dimension in the selection process, specifically by considering future structural diversity. In the study both the economic value and future values of 15 structural variables were simulated during a 100 year period. To get a net present structural value (NPSV, a single value covering both current and future values, we used four discounting alternatives: (1 only considering present values, (2 giving equal importance to values in each of the 100 years within the planning horizon, (3 applying an annual discount rate considering the risk that values could be lost, and (4 only considering the values in year 100. The four alternatives were evaluated in a reserve selection model under budget-constrained and area-constrained selections. When selecting young forests higher structural richness could be reached at a quarter of the cost over almost twice the area in a budget-constrained selection compared to an area-constrained selection. Our results point to the importance of considering future structural diversity in the selection of forest reserves and not as is done currently to base the selection on existing values. Targeting future values increases structural diversity and implies a relatively lower cost. Further, our results show that a re-orientation from old to young forests would imply savings while offering a more extensive reserve network with high structural qualities in the future. However, caution must be raised against a drastic reorientation of the current old-forest strategy since remnants of ancient forests will need to be prioritized due to their role for

  15. Considering Future Potential Regarding Structural Diversity in Selection of Forest Reserves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundström, Johanna; Öhman, Karin; Rönnqvist, Mikael; Gustafsson, Lena

    2016-01-01

    A rich structural diversity in forests promotes biodiversity. Forests are dynamic and therefore it is crucial to consider future structural potential when selecting reserves, to make robust conservation decisions. We analyzed forests in boreal Sweden based on 17,599 National Forest Inventory (NFI) plots with the main aim to understand how effectiveness of reserves depends on the time dimension in the selection process, specifically by considering future structural diversity. In the study both the economic value and future values of 15 structural variables were simulated during a 100 year period. To get a net present structural value (NPSV), a single value covering both current and future values, we used four discounting alternatives: (1) only considering present values, (2) giving equal importance to values in each of the 100 years within the planning horizon, (3) applying an annual discount rate considering the risk that values could be lost, and (4) only considering the values in year 100. The four alternatives were evaluated in a reserve selection model under budget-constrained and area-constrained selections. When selecting young forests higher structural richness could be reached at a quarter of the cost over almost twice the area in a budget-constrained selection compared to an area-constrained selection. Our results point to the importance of considering future structural diversity in the selection of forest reserves and not as is done currently to base the selection on existing values. Targeting future values increases structural diversity and implies a relatively lower cost. Further, our results show that a re-orientation from old to young forests would imply savings while offering a more extensive reserve network with high structural qualities in the future. However, caution must be raised against a drastic reorientation of the current old-forest strategy since remnants of ancient forests will need to be prioritized due to their role for disturbance

  16. Considering Future Potential Regarding Structural Diversity in Selection of Forest Reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundström, Johanna; Öhman, Karin; Rönnqvist, Mikael; Gustafsson, Lena

    2016-01-01

    A rich structural diversity in forests promotes biodiversity. Forests are dynamic and therefore it is crucial to consider future structural potential when selecting reserves, to make robust conservation decisions. We analyzed forests in boreal Sweden based on 17,599 National Forest Inventory (NFI) plots with the main aim to understand how effectiveness of reserves depends on the time dimension in the selection process, specifically by considering future structural diversity. In the study both the economic value and future values of 15 structural variables were simulated during a 100 year period. To get a net present structural value (NPSV), a single value covering both current and future values, we used four discounting alternatives: (1) only considering present values, (2) giving equal importance to values in each of the 100 years within the planning horizon, (3) applying an annual discount rate considering the risk that values could be lost, and (4) only considering the values in year 100. The four alternatives were evaluated in a reserve selection model under budget-constrained and area-constrained selections. When selecting young forests higher structural richness could be reached at a quarter of the cost over almost twice the area in a budget-constrained selection compared to an area-constrained selection. Our results point to the importance of considering future structural diversity in the selection of forest reserves and not as is done currently to base the selection on existing values. Targeting future values increases structural diversity and implies a relatively lower cost. Further, our results show that a re-orientation from old to young forests would imply savings while offering a more extensive reserve network with high structural qualities in the future. However, caution must be raised against a drastic reorientation of the current old-forest strategy since remnants of ancient forests will need to be prioritized due to their role for disturbance

  17. The Physiology, Pathology, and Pharmacology of Voltage-Gated Calcium Channels and Their Future Therapeutic Potential

    OpenAIRE

    Gerald W Zamponi; Striessnig, Joerg; Koschak, Alexandra; Dolphin, Annette C.

    2015-01-01

    Voltage-gated calcium channels are required for many key functions in the body. In this review, the different subtypes of voltage-gated calcium channels are described and their physiologic roles and pharmacology are outlined. We describe the current uses of drugs interacting with the different calcium channel subtypes and subunits, as well as specific areas in which there is strong potential for future drug development. Current therapeutic agents include drugs targeting L-type ...

  18. Forecasting migration in Scotland: potential impact of independence on the future trends

    OpenAIRE

    Wisniowski, Arkadiusz; Bijak, Jakub; Shang, Han Lin

    2014-01-01

    Migration to and from Scotland could potentially be affected by the outcome of the 2014 Scottish referendum on the constitutional future of the United Kingdom. The likelihood and extent of changes in migration have not been thoroughly analysed to date. This briefing paper presents selected outcomes of the analyses carried out by the ESRC Centre for Population Change on the possible effects of Scottish independence on internal and international migration. In particular, it aims to describe the...

  19. Turkey’s Increased Engagement in Africa: The Potential, Limits and Future Perspective of Relations

    OpenAIRE

    Savas Genc; Oguzhan Tekin

    2014-01-01

    This article provides an overview of Turkey's recently increased engagement in Africa in terms of the potential, limits and future perspectives of relations. It aims to examine Turkey's foreign policy toward Africa and to analyze the driving force behind this foreign policy between 2001 and 2010. The maidens of Turkish Foreign Policy towards African countries have been analyzed as official initiatives and supplementary efforts that demonstrate significant dynamism of Turkish NonGovernmental O...

  20. Potential impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on future agricultural land use in West Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmed, Kazi Farzan; Wang, Guiling; You, Liangzhi; Yu, Miao

    2016-01-01

    Agriculture is a key component of anthropogenic land use and land cover changes that influence regional climate. Meanwhile, in addition to socioeconomic drivers, climate is another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In this study, we compare the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa using a prototype land use projection (LandPro) algorithm. The algorithm is based on a bal...

  1. Potential impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on future agricultural land use in West Africa

    OpenAIRE

    K. F. Ahmed; Wang, G; You, L.; M. Yu

    2015-01-01

    Agriculture is a key component of anthropogenic land use and land cover changes that influence regional climate. Meanwhile, in addition to socioeconomic drivers, climate is another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In this study, we compare the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa using a prototype land use projection (LandPro) algorithm. The algorithm...

  2. Future climate variability impacts on potential erosion and soil organic carbon in European croplands

    OpenAIRE

    Van der Velde, M.; Balkovič, J.; Beer, C.; Khabarov, N.; M. Kuhnert; Obersteiner, M.; Skalský, R.; Xiong, W; Smith, P

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the impact of future climate variability on the potential vulnerability of soils to erosion and the consequences for soil organic carbon (SOC) in European croplands. Soil erosion is an important carbon flux not characterized in Earth System Models. We use a~European implementation of EPIC, driven by reference climate data (CNTRL), and climate data with reduced variability (REDVAR). Whether erosion regimes will change across European cropland d...

  3. Do Current Assessments Underestimate Future Damages From Climate Change?

    OpenAIRE

    Stéphane Hallegatte

    2007-01-01

    While the economic debate on climate policy focuses on discounting, we do not know yet what to discount. The potential (non-discounted) socio-economic cost of climate change, indeed, is still unknown. Only a few studies have tried to estimate socio-economic costs of climate change. Most of them concluded that, for a warming of a few degrees, damages will be limited to a few percent of GDP. All these studies, however, have disregarded important mechanisms and have only considered the cost of a...

  4. Assessing the Potential of Mathematics Textbooks to Promote Deep Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shield, Malcolm; Dole, Shelley

    2013-01-01

    Curriculum documents for mathematics emphasise the importance of promoting depth of knowledge rather than shallow coverage of the curriculum. In this paper, we report on a study that explored the analysis of junior secondary mathematics textbooks to assess their potential to assist in teaching and learning aimed at building and applying deep…

  5. Assessing the Training Potential of MTDS in Exercise First Wave

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gehr, S.E.; Schurig, M.; Jacobs, L.R.M.A.; Pal, J. van der; Bennett, W.; Schreiber, B.

    2005-01-01

    Exercise First WAVE (EFW) was conducted in November 2004 and was the first large-scale NATO MTDS event that focused on investigating and providing COMAO training for warfighters and mission support staff in a distributed synthetic environment. To assess the training potential of EFW, the NATO partne

  6. Contents of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in the safety evaluation of a repository for spent fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this report is to discuss issues that should be considered in the development of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in any forthcoming license application for a deep repository for spent fuel in Sweden and for sites of other repositories. The report comprises an outline of key issues concerning the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, reviews of regulatory developments, recent safety assessments and supporting studies, and international initiatives on the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, and the principal elements of a regulatory strategy. Performance assessments (PAs) are generally accepted as providing illustrations of system performance under given sets of assumptions. The results of PAs are clearer and easier to understand if certain large uncertainties are accounted for by determining performance under several different sets of assumptions or scenarios, each of which defines a possible evolution of the disposal system. A number of assumptions can be made that would restrict the scope of an assessment without reducing the credibility of the corresponding safety case. Reducing speculation about technological development, by assuming that the techniques used in future human activities are similar to those currently in use in the region or at similar sites, will simplify the assessment. A distinction is generally made between inadvertent and intentional intrusion, with intentional activities excluded because society cannot protect future populations from their own actions if they understand the potential consequences. A division of human activities into 'recent and ongoing' and 'future' activities considers not only the timing of the activities but also the degree of control or influence that can be imposed on them. Recent and ongoing human activities are those that affect an area beyond the immediate vicinity of the disposal facility and which neither the proponent nor the regulator

  7. Modeling and assessment of future IGCC plant concepts with CO{sub 2} capture; Simulation und Bewertung zukuenftiger IGCC-Kraftwerkskonzepte mit CO{sub 2}-Abtrennung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kunze, Christian A.

    2012-07-13

    The thesis focuses on the assessment of efficiency potential of future IGCC plants with CO{sub 2} capture. Starting point is a comprehensive analysis (thermodynamic, economic and exergy) of a state of the art IGCC. Additionally, five future IGCC concepts are proposed and evaluated for their efficiency potential in the mid- and long-term. The concepts showed significantly higher efficiencies up to approximately 60% and enable an almost CO{sub 2}-free operation.

  8. Agricultural soils potentially contaminated: risk assessment procedure case studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleonora Beccaloni

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available At the moment, the health-environmental risk analysis is used to decision-making targets in the contaminated sites management; this procedure allows to assess the quantitative health risk related to the pollutants presence in environmental compartments, as soil and waters. As regards potentially contaminated agricultural soils, the ingestion of food from vegetable and/or animal source, produced inside the contaminated area, is the most suitable way to assess the health risk. As an official procedure to this assessment is not available, the National Institute for Health (Istituto Superiore di Sanità, ISS has worked out an operating procedure, organized into several phases, depending on the available specific-site know-how. In this document, agricultural soils potentially contaminated in two sites have been studied; the sites are the following: Brescia Caffaro and Torviscosa.

  9. Strategy for the future use and disposition of Uranium-233: History, inventories, storage facilities, and potential future uses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document provides background information on the man-made radioisotope 233U. It is one of a series of four reports that map out potential national strategies for the future use and disposition of 233U pending action under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). The scope of this report is separated 233U, where separated refers to nonwaste 233U or 233U that has been separated from fission products. Information on other 233U, such as that in spent nuclear fuel (SNF), is included only to recognize that it may be separated at a later date and then fall under the scope of this report. The background information in this document includes the historical production and current inventory of 233U, the uses of 233U, and a discussion of the available facilities for storing 233U. The considerations for what fraction of the current inventory should be preserved for future use depend on several issues. First, 233U always contains a small amount of the contaminant isotope 232U. The decay products of 232U are highly radioactive and require special handling. The current inventory has a variety of qualities with regard to 232U content, ranging from 1 to about 200 ppm (on a total uranium basis). It is preferable to use 233U with the minimum amount of 232U in all applications. The second issue pertains to other isotopes of uranium mixed in with the 233U, specifically 235U and 238U. A large portion of the inventory has a high quantity of 235U associated with it. The presence of bulk amounts of 235U complicates storage because of the added volume needing safeguards and criticality controls. Isotopic dilution using DU may remove safeguards and criticality concerns, but it increases the overall mass and may limit applications that depend on the fissile nature of 233U. The third issue concerns the packaging of the material. There is no standard packaging (although one is being developed); consequently, the inventory exists in a variety of packages. For some applications, the

  10. Anti-tick biological control agents: assessment and future perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samish, M., H.; Ginsberg, H.S.; Glazer, I.

    2008-01-01

    Widespread and increasing resistance to most available acaracides threatens both global livestock industries and public health. This necessitates better understanding of ticks and the diseases they transmit in the development of new control strategies. Ticks: Biology, Disease and Control is written by an international collection of experts and covers in-depth information on aspects of the biology of the ticks themselves, various veterinary and medical tick-borne pathogens, and aspects of traditional and potential new control methods. A valuable resource for graduate students, academic researchers and professionals, the book covers the whole gamut of ticks and tick-borne diseases from microsatellites to satellite imagery and from exploiting tick saliva for therapeutic drugs to developing drugs to control tick populations. It encompasses the variety of interconnected fields impinging on the economically important and biologically fascinating phenomenon of ticks, the diseases they transmit and methods of their control.

  11. Palliative care in India: Situation assessment and future scope

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S S Kar

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Palliative care is an approach that improves the quality of life of patients and their families facing the problems associated with life-threatening illness, through prevention and relief of suffering by means of early identification, assessment and treatment of pain, and other problems – physical, psychosocial, and spiritual. It is estimated that in India the total number of people who need palliative care is likely to be 5.4 million people a year. Though palliative care services have been in existence for many years, India ranks at the bottom of the Quality of Death index in overall score. However there has been steady progress in the past few years through community-owned palliative care services. One of the key objectives of the National Programme for prevention and control of cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and stroke is to establish and develop capacity for palliative and rehabilitative care. Community models for the provision of home-based palliative care is possible by involving community caregivers and volunteers supervised by nurses trained in palliative care. Training of medical officers and health care professionals, and sensitization of the public through awareness campaigns are vital to improve the scope and coverage of palliative care. Process of translating palliative care plan into action requires strong leadership, competent management, political support and integration across all levels of care.

  12. Potential Impact of the National Plan for Future Electric Power Supply on Air Quality in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shim, C.; Hong, J.

    2014-12-01

    Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) announced the national plan for Korea's future electric power supply (2013 - 2027) in 2013. According to the plan, the national demand for electricity will be increased by 60% compared to that of 2010 and primary energy sources for electric generation will still lean on the fossil fuels such as petroleum, LNG, and coal, which would be a potential threat to air quality of Korea. This study focused on two subjects: (1) How the spatial distribution of the primary air pollutant's emissions (i.e., NOx, SOx, CO, PM) will be changed and (2) How the primary emission changes will influence on the national ambient air quality including ozone in 2027. We used GEOS-Chem model simulation with modification of Korean emissions inventory (Clean Air Policy Support System (CAPSS)) to simulate the current and future air quality in Korea. The national total emissions of CO, NOx, SOx, PM in year 2027 will be increased by 3%, 8%, 13%, 2%, respectively compared to 2010 and there are additional concern that the future location of the power plants will be closer to the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), where there are approximately 20 million population vulnerable to the potentially worsened air quality. While there are slight increase of concentration of CO, NOx, SOx, and PM in 2027, the O3 concentration is expected to be similar to the level of 2010. Those results may imply the characteristics of air pollution in East Asia such as potentially severe O3 titration and poorer O3/CO or O3/NOx ratio. Furthermore, we will discuss on the impact of transboundary pollution transport from China in the future, which is one of the large factors to control the air quality of Korea.

  13. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS AND PROBLEMS: AGRICULTURAL USE OF APPLIED GENETICS AND BIOTECHNOLOGIES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battelle's Columbus Laboratories will identify and define future environmental concerns arising from applying genetic engineering technology to agricultural problems. Two genetic emgineering technologies, plant tissue culture and recombinant DNA, will be considered. Potential env...

  14. Assessing the Impact of Saltwater Intrusion in the Carolinas under Future Climatic and Sea Level Conditions

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The goal of this research is to support coastal decision-makers in North Carolina and South Carolina by providing information about potential future precipitation...

  15. Engineered nanomaterial risk. Lessons learnt from completed nanotoxicology studies: potential solutions to current and future challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Helinor; Pojana, Giulio; Zuin, Stefano; Jacobsen, Nicklas Raun; Møller, Peter; Loft, Steffen; Semmler-Behnke, Manuela; McGuiness, Catherine; Balharry, Dominique; Marcomini, Antonio; Wallin, Håkan; Kreyling, Wolfgang; Donaldson, Ken; Tran, Lang; Stone, Vicki

    2013-01-01

    PARTICLE_RISK was one of the first multidisciplinary projects funded by the European Commission's Framework Programme that was responsible for evaluating the implications of nanomaterial (NM) exposure on human health. This project was the basis for this review which identifies the challenges that exist within the assessment of NM risk. We have retrospectively reflected on the findings of completed nanotoxicology studies to consider what progress and advances have been made within the risk assessment of NMs, as well as discussing the direction that nanotoxicology research is taking and identifying the limitations and failings of existing research. We have reflected on what commonly encountered challenges exist and explored how these issues may be resolved. In particular, the following is discussed (i) NM selection (ii) NM physico-chemical characterisation; (iii) NM dispersion; (iv) selection of relevant doses and concentrations; (v) identification of relevant models, target sites and endpoints; (vi) development of alternatives to animal testing; and (vii) NM risk assessment. These knowledge gaps are relatively well recognised by the scientific community and recommendations as to how they may be overcome in the future are provided. It is hoped that this will help develop better defined hypothesis driven research in the future that will enable comprehensive risk assessments to be conducted for NMs. Importantly, the nanotoxicology community has responded and adapted to advances in knowledge over recent years to improve the approaches used to assess NM hazard, exposure and risk. It is vital to learn from existing information provided by ongoing or completed studies to avoid unnecessary duplication of effort, and to offer guidance on aspects of the experimental design that should be carefully considered prior to the start of a new study. PMID:23126553

  16. Assessing dengue vaccination impact: Model challenges and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recker, Mario; Vannice, Kirsten; Hombach, Joachim; Jit, Mark; Simmons, Cameron P

    2016-08-31

    In response to the sharp rise in the global burden caused by dengue virus (DENV) over the last few decades, the WHO has set out three specific key objectives in its disease control strategy: (i) to estimate the true burden of dengue by 2015; (ii) a reduction in dengue mortality by at least 50% by 2020 (used as a baseline); and (iii) a reduction in dengue morbidity by at least 25% by 2020. Although various elements will all play crucial parts in achieving this goal, from diagnosis and case management to integrated surveillance and outbreak response, sustainable vector control, vaccine implementation and finally operational and implementation research, it seems clear that new tools (e.g. a safe and effective vaccine and/or effective vector control) are key to success. The first dengue vaccine was licensed in December 2015, Dengvaxia® (CYD-TDV) developed by Sanofi Pasteur. The WHO has provided guidance on the use of CYD-TDV in endemic countries, for which there are a variety of considerations beyond the risk-benefit evaluation done by regulatory authorities, including public health impact and cost-effectiveness. Population-level vaccine impact and economic and financial aspects are two issues that can potentially be considered by means of mathematical modelling, especially for new products for which empirical data are still lacking. In December 2014 a meeting was convened by the WHO in order to revisit the current status of dengue transmission models and their utility for public health decision-making. Here, we report on the main points of discussion and the conclusions of this meeting, as well as next steps for maximising the use of mathematical models for vaccine decision-making. PMID:27461457

  17. Meeting the demand. An estimation of potential future greenhouse gas emissions from meat production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fiala, Nathan [Department of Economics, University of California, Irvine, 3151 Social Science Plaza, Irvine, CA 92697-5100 (United States)

    2008-10-15

    Current production processes for meat products have been shown to have a significant impact on the environment, accounting for between 15% and 24% of current greenhouse gas emissions. Meat consumption has been increasing at a fantastic rate and is likely to continue to do so into the future. If this demand is to be met, technology used in production in the form of Confined Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs) will need to be expanded. This paper estimates future meat consumption and discusses the potential aggregate environmental impact of this production if the use of CAFOs is expanded. I first separate meat into beef, chicken and pig products and estimate the elasticities associated with each product in order to forecast the world demand for meat. Using research on the environmental impact of food production in the US, which uses one of the most efficient CAFO processes in the world, I then calculate the total potential greenhouse emissions of this meat production and discuss the impact of these consumption patterns. I find that, under an expanded CAFO system, meat production in the future will still be a large producer of greenhouse gases, accounting for up to 6.3% of current greenhouse gas emissions in 2030. (author)

  18. 17 CFR 1.14 - Risk assessment recordkeeping requirements for futures commission merchants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment recordkeeping... Related Reporting Requirements § 1.14 Risk assessment recordkeeping requirements for futures commission... Material Affiliated Person, pursuant to § 240.17h-1T of this title, or such other risk...

  19. Organ assessment and repair centers: The future of transplantation is near

    OpenAIRE

    Whitson, Bryan A.; Black, Sylvester M.

    2014-01-01

    Solid organ transplantation is limited by suitable donor organ availability and the geographic limitations that lead to prolonged ischemic times. Ex vivo organ perfusion is an evolving technology that enables assessment of organ function prior to transplantation. As a byproduct, overall out of body organ times are able to be extended. The future implications organ assessment and repair centers utilizing this technology are discussed.

  20. Formative Assessment as a Component of the Future English Teacher Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimenko, Marina Viktorovna; Sleptsova, Larisa Arkadyevna

    2015-01-01

    The article deals with the problem of the initial stage of the future English teacher training and forming basic professional teaching skills by means of the implementation of formative assessment methods into the process of studying. It reveals the urgent necessity of using a modern and reliable system of assessment as a sound foundation of a…

  1. Comprehensive Care Plan Development Using Resident Assessment Instrument Framework: Past, Present, and Future Practices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary Ellen Dellefield

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Development of the comprehensive care plan (CCP is a requirement for nursing homes participating in the federal Medicare and Medicaid programs, referred to as skilled nursing facilities. The plan must be developed within the context of the comprehensive interdisciplinary assessment framework—the Resident Assessment Instrument (RAI. Consistent compliance with this requirement has been difficult to achieve. To improve the quality of CCP development within this framework, an increased understanding of complex factors contributing to inconsistent compliance is required. In this commentary, we examine the history of the comprehensive care plan; its development within the RAI framework; linkages between the RAI and registered nurse staffing; empirical evidence of the CCP’s efficacy; and the limitations of extant standards of practices in CCP development. Because of the registered nurse’s educational preparation, professional practice standards, and licensure obligations, the essential contributions of professional nurses in CCP development are emphasized. Recommendations for evidence-based micro and macro level practice changes with the potential to improve the quality of CCP development and regulatory compliance are presented. Suggestions for future research are given.

  2. The Potential of Mobile Phones to Transform Teacher Professional Development to Build Sustainable Educational Futures in Bangladesh

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher S Walsh; Woodward, Clare; Solly, Michael; Shrestha, Prithvi

    2015-01-01

    Futures thinking is used by governments to consider long-term strategic approaches and develop policies and practices that are potentially resilient to future uncertainty. English in Action (EIA), arguably the world’s largest English language teacher professional development (TPD) project, used futures thinking to author possible, probable and preferable future scenarios to solve the project’s greatest technological challenge: how to deliver audio-visual TPD materials and hundreds of classroo...

  3. Theoretical Assessment of Technological Potential of Magnetic and Electrical Separation

    OpenAIRE

    Karmazin, V. V.

    1997-01-01

    Magnetic, electrical an combined methods of mineral beneficiation are widely used in various branches of mining industry. These processes have significant economic and ecological advantages in those areas where they can be applied technologically. It is thus necessary to analyse technological possibilities and areas of potential applications. Different designs of the separators must also be considered. Such an attempt is being done in this article based on the assessment of the level of diffe...

  4. Designing an Index for Assessing Wind Energy Potential

    OpenAIRE

    Ritter, Matthias; Shen, Zhiwei; López Cabrera, Brenda; Odening, Martin; Deckert, Lars

    2014-01-01

    To meet the increasing global demand for renewable energy such as wind energy, more and more new wind parks are installed worldwide. Finding a suitable location, however, requires a detailed and often costly analysis of the local wind conditions. Plain average wind speed maps cannot provide a precise forecast of wind power because of the non-linear relationship between wind speed and production. In this paper, we suggest a new approach of assessing the local wind energy potential: Meteorologi...

  5. Assessment of visual disability using visual evoked potentials

    OpenAIRE

    Jeon Jihoon; Oh Seiyul; Kyung Sungeun

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background The purpose of this study is to validate the use of visual evoked potential (VEP) to objectively quantify visual acuity in normal and amblyopic patients, and determine if it is possible to predict visual acuity in disability assessment to register visual pathway lesions. Methods A retrospective chart review was conducted of patients diagnosed with normal vision, unilateral amblyopia, optic neuritis, and visual disability who visited the university medical center for regist...

  6. Future production and utilisation of biomass in Sweden: potentials and CO2 mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swedish biomass production potential could be increased significantly if new production methods, such as optimised fertilisation, were to be used. Optimised fertilisation on 25% of Swedish forest land and the use of stem wood could almost double the biomass potential from forestry compared with no fertilisation, as both logging residues and large quantities of excess stem wood not needed for industrial purposes could be used for energy purposes. Together with energy crops and straw from agriculture, the total Swedish biomass potential would be about 230 TWh/yr or half the current Swedish energy supply if the demand for stem wood for building and industrial purposes were the same as today. The new production methods are assumed not to cause any significant negative impact on the local environment. The cost of utilising stem wood produced with optimised fertilisation for energy purposes has not been analysed and needs further investigation. Besides replacing fossil fuels and, thus, reducing current Swedish CO2 emissions by about 65%, this amount of biomass is enough to produce electricity equivalent to 20% of current power production. Biomass-based electricity is produced preferably through co-generation using district heating systems in densely populated regions, and pulp industries in forest regions. Alcohols for transportation and stand-alone power production are preferably produced in less densely populated regions with excess biomass. A high intensity in biomass production would reduce biomass transportation demands. There are uncertainties regarding the future demand for stem wood for building and industrial purposes, the amount of arable land available for energy crop production and future yields. These factors will influence Swedish biomass potential and earlier estimates of the potential vary from 15 to 125 TWh/yr. (author)

  7. Assessing geothermal energy potential in upstate New York. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hodge, D.S. [SUNY, Buffalo, NY (United States)

    1996-08-01

    The potential of geothermal energy for future electric power generation in New York State is evaluated using estimates of temperatures of geothermal reservoir rocks. Bottom hole temperatures from over 2000 oil and gas wells in the region were integrated into subsurface maps of the temperatures for specific geothermal reservoirs. The Theresa/Potsdam formation provides the best potential for extraction of high volumes of geothermal fluids. The evaluation of the Theresa/Potsdam geothermal reservoir in upstate New York suggests that an area 30 miles east of Elmira, New York has the highest temperatures in the reservoir rock. The Theresa/Potsdam reservoir rock should have temperatures about 136 {degrees}C and may have as much as 450 feet of porosity in excess of 8%. Estimates of the volumes of geothermal fluids that can be extracted are provided and environmental considerations for production from a geothermal well is discussed.

  8. The Service-Bond Paradigm - Potentials for a Sustainable, ICT-enabled Future

    OpenAIRE

    Moghaddam, Reza Farrahi; Lemieux, Yves; Cheriet, Mohamed

    2015-01-01

    The service paradigm as we know it has gone through a long journey of evolution and improvement, and it seems that a service-oriented vision to activities in general could serve as a potential platform for the global transition to a sustainable future. However, it is also apparent that the services themselves are required to move beyond their traditional definition in order to prevent any secondary side effect. Here, a new paradigm is proposed based on bonding between entities involved in a s...

  9. Turkey’s Increased Engagement in Africa: The Potential, Limits and Future Perspective of Relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Savas GENC

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This article provides an overview of Turkey’s recently increased engagement in Africa in terms of the potential, limits and future perspectives of relations. It aims to examine Turkey’s foreign policy toward Africa and to analyze the driving force behind this foreign policy between 2001 and 2010. The maidens of Turkish Foreign Policy towards African countries have been analyzed as official initiatives and supplementary efforts that demonstrate significant dynamism of Turkish NonGovernmental Organizations (NGOs. The evidences show that Turkish foreign policy has been managed consistently; and as a result of this, improvements on relations are clearly recorded.

  10. Turkey's Increased Engagement in Africa: The Potential, Limits and Future Perspective of Relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Savas Genc

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This article provides an overview of Turkey's recently increased engagement in Africa in terms of the potential, limits and future perspectives of relations. It aims to examine Turkey's foreign policy toward Africa and to analyze the driving force behind this foreign policy between 2001 and 2010. The maidens of Turkish Foreign Policy towards African countries have been analyzed as official initiatives and supplementary efforts that demonstrate significant dynamism of Turkish NonGovernmental Organizations (NGOs. The evidences show that Turkish foreign policy has been managed consistently; and as a result of this, improvements on relations are clearly recorded.

  11. Portfolio assessments for future generation investment in newly industrializing countries – A case study of Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper assesses future electricity generation portfolios in Thailand in 2030 given uncertain future fossil-fuel prices, carbon pricing policies, electricity demand, and capital costs. Thailand faces challenges for generation investment given its rapid socio-economic progress and fast growing demand. A novel generation investment and planning decision-support tool which incorporates a Monte Carlo extension to conventional optimal generation mix methods combined with portfolio-based analysis techniques, is used. The tool can formally assess tradeoffs between expected future generation costs, cost uncertainties, and CO2 emissions for the range of different generation portfolios. Results highlight that different levels of future carbon pricing will have significant impacts on the most appropriate generation portfolios. The impact of carbon pricing, however, is not on the appropriate proportion of combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT) in the mix but, instead, on the future role of coal versus nuclear in Thailand. Compared with the current proposed 2030 generation mix, it is possible that there are other generation portfolios that offer lower expected costs, cost uncertainty, and CO2 emissions depending on future carbon pricing. Results suggest that this investment decision-support approach may have value for electric utilities and policy-makers contemplating significant generation investments under high future uncertainty and conflicting policy objectives. -- Highlights: ► Assess Thailand's future generation portfolios in 2030 under uncertainties. ► Future carbon prices have significant impacts on the appropriate generation mixes. ► Carbon pricing affects the future role of coal versus nuclear in Thailand. ► There may be more appropriate alternatives than the proposed 2030 generation mix. ► This decision-support approach has value for utility and policy decision-making.

  12. Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

  13. Chemical conditions in present and future ecosystems in Forsmark - implications for selected radionuclides in the safety assessment SR-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Troejbom, Mats (Mats Troejbom Konsult AB (Sweden)); Grolander, Sara (Facilia AB (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    This report is a background report for the biosphere analysis of the SR-Site Safety Assessment. This work aims to describe the future development of the chemical conditions at Forsmark, based on the present chemical conditions at landscape level taking landscape development and climate cases into consideration. The results presented contribute to the overall understanding of the present and future chemistry in the Forsmark area, and specifically, to the understanding of the behaviour of some selected radionuclides in the surface system. The future development of the chemistry at the site is qualitatively discussed with focus on the interglacial within the next 10,000 years. The effects on the chemical environment of future climate cases as Global Warming and cold permafrost climates are also briefly discussed. The work is presented in two independent parts describing background radionuclide activities in the Forsmark area and the distribution and behaviour of a large number of stable elements in the landscape. In a concluding section, implications of the future chemical environment of a selection of radionuclides important in the Safety Assessment are discussed based on the knowledge of stable elements. The broad range of elements studied show that there are general and expected patterns for the distribution and behaviour in the landscape of different groups of elements. Mass balances reveal major sources and sinks, pool estimations show where elements are accumulated in the landscape and estimations of time-scales give indications of the potential future development. This general knowledge is transferred to radionuclides not measured in order to estimate their behaviour and distribution in the landscape. It could be concluded that the future development of the chemical environment in the Forsmark area might affect element specific parameters used in de radionuclide model in different directions depending on element. The alternative climate cases, Global Warming

  14. Future Management of Hazardous Household Waste in Petaling Jaya. A Preliminary Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Gätke, Pelle

    2003-01-01

    In “Future Management of Hazardous Household Waste in Petaling Jaya”, technological and socio-economic issues, related to the planning and initiation of a system for handling hazardous household waste, is examined and discussed. Stakeholders related to the issue are assessed, and on the background of interviews with these and (other) experts, and a look into the legislative aspect, the state of the hazardous household waste discourse and the future possibilities are outlined. The field studie...

  15. Malaria transmission potential could be reduced with current and future climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murdock, C C; Sternberg, E D; Thomas, M B

    2016-01-01

    Several studies suggest the potential for climate change to increase malaria incidence in cooler, marginal transmission environments. However, the effect of increasing temperature in warmer regions where conditions currently support endemic transmission has received less attention. We investigate how increases in temperature from optimal conditions (27 °C to 30 °C and 33 °C) interact with realistic diurnal temperature ranges (DTR: ± 0 °C, 3 °C, and 4.5 °C) to affect the ability of key vector species from Africa and Asia (Anopheles gambiae and An. stephensi) to transmit the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum. The effects of increasing temperature and DTR on parasite prevalence, parasite intensity, and mosquito mortality decreased overall vectorial capacity for both mosquito species. Increases of 3 °C from 27 °C reduced vectorial capacity by 51-89% depending on species and DTR, with increases in DTR alone potentially halving transmission. At 33 °C, transmission potential was further reduced for An. stephensi and blocked completely in An. gambiae. These results suggest that small shifts in temperature could play a substantial role in malaria transmission dynamics, yet few empirical or modeling studies consider such effects. They further suggest that rather than increase risk, current and future warming could reduce transmission potential in existing high transmission settings. PMID:27324146

  16. Malaria transmission potential could be reduced with current and future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murdock, C. C.; Sternberg, E. D.; Thomas, M. B.

    2016-01-01

    Several studies suggest the potential for climate change to increase malaria incidence in cooler, marginal transmission environments. However, the effect of increasing temperature in warmer regions where conditions currently support endemic transmission has received less attention. We investigate how increases in temperature from optimal conditions (27 °C to 30 °C and 33 °C) interact with realistic diurnal temperature ranges (DTR: ± 0 °C, 3 °C, and 4.5 °C) to affect the ability of key vector species from Africa and Asia (Anopheles gambiae and An. stephensi) to transmit the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum. The effects of increasing temperature and DTR on parasite prevalence, parasite intensity, and mosquito mortality decreased overall vectorial capacity for both mosquito species. Increases of 3 °C from 27 °C reduced vectorial capacity by 51–89% depending on species and DTR, with increases in DTR alone potentially halving transmission. At 33 °C, transmission potential was further reduced for An. stephensi and blocked completely in An. gambiae. These results suggest that small shifts in temperature could play a substantial role in malaria transmission dynamics, yet few empirical or modeling studies consider such effects. They further suggest that rather than increase risk, current and future warming could reduce transmission potential in existing high transmission settings. PMID:27324146

  17. Radar imagery interpretation to assess the hydrocarbon potential of four sites in the Philippines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1988-11-17

    The Republic of the Philippines is intensely interested in the identification, development, and conservation of natural resources. In keeping with this, the Government of the Philippines has recently completed a nationwide sedimentary basin evaluation program to assess hydrocarbon potential and assist in future exploration activities. This program of collection and interpretation of the radar imagery was designed to augment and complement the existing data base. The primary objective of the project was to further the goals of international energy development by aiding the Republic of the Philippines in the assessment of potential petroleum and geothermal prospects within the areas imaged. Secondary goals were to assist the Republic of the Philippines in utilizing state-of-the-art radar remote sensing technology for resource exploration, and to train key Philippines scientists in the use of imaging radar data. 29 refs., 30 figs., 14 tabs.

  18. The Physiology, Pathology, and Pharmacology of Voltage-Gated Calcium Channels and Their Future Therapeutic Potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamponi, Gerald W; Striessnig, Joerg; Koschak, Alexandra; Dolphin, Annette C

    2015-10-01

    Voltage-gated calcium channels are required for many key functions in the body. In this review, the different subtypes of voltage-gated calcium channels are described and their physiologic roles and pharmacology are outlined. We describe the current uses of drugs interacting with the different calcium channel subtypes and subunits, as well as specific areas in which there is strong potential for future drug development. Current therapeutic agents include drugs targeting L-type Ca(V)1.2 calcium channels, particularly 1,4-dihydropyridines, which are widely used in the treatment of hypertension. T-type (Ca(V)3) channels are a target of ethosuximide, widely used in absence epilepsy. The auxiliary subunit α2δ-1 is the therapeutic target of the gabapentinoid drugs, which are of value in certain epilepsies and chronic neuropathic pain. The limited use of intrathecal ziconotide, a peptide blocker of N-type (Ca(V)2.2) calcium channels, as a treatment of intractable pain, gives an indication that these channels represent excellent drug targets for various pain conditions. We describe how selectivity for different subtypes of calcium channels (e.g., Ca(V)1.2 and Ca(V)1.3 L-type channels) may be achieved in the future by exploiting differences between channel isoforms in terms of sequence and biophysical properties, variation in splicing in different target tissues, and differences in the properties of the target tissues themselves in terms of membrane potential or firing frequency. Thus, use-dependent blockers of the different isoforms could selectively block calcium channels in particular pathologies, such as nociceptive neurons in pain states or in epileptic brain circuits. Of important future potential are selective Ca(V)1.3 blockers for neuropsychiatric diseases, neuroprotection in Parkinson's disease, and resistant hypertension. In addition, selective or nonselective T-type channel blockers are considered potential therapeutic targets in epilepsy, pain, obesity, sleep

  19. Bridging Present and Future of Brain-Computer Interfaces: An Assessment of Impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Velloso, Gabriel Teykal

    2012-01-01

    Technology assessment is essentially a systematic method used to investigate technology developments and assess their potential impacts on society. The assessment of emerging technologies, however, requires special attention. To address technologies at early stages of development, Constructive Technology Assessment (CTA) is considered to be one of the best options to bypass the Collingridge dilemma - which fundamentally states that controlling the direction of a technology’s development is ve...

  20. THE POTENTIAL OF BIOCHEMISTRY EDUCATION APPS IN THE FORMATIVE ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. L. Oliveira

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and objectives: Apps can be designed to provide usage data, and most of them do. These data are usually used to map users interests and to deliver more effective ads that are more likely to result in clicks, and sales. We have applied some of these metrics to understand how can it be used to map students’ behavior and to promote a formative assessment using educational software. The purpose of a formative assessment is to monitor student learning to provide ongoing feedback that can be used by instructors and students to improve the teaching and learning process. Thus, this modality aims to help both students and instructors to identify strengths and weaknesses that need to be developed. This study aimed to describe the potential of educational apps in the formative assessment process. Material and Methods: We have implemented assessment tools embedded in three apps (ARMET, The Cell and 3D Class used to teach: 1 Metabolic Pathways; 2 Scale of the cellular structures, and 3 Concepts from techniques used in a Biochemistry Lab course. The implemented tools allow to verify on what issues there were recurring mistakes, the total number of mistakes presented, which questions they most achieved, how long they took to perform the activity and other relevant information. Results and conclusion: Educational apps can provide transparent and coherent evaluation metrics to enable instructors to systematize more consistent criteria and indicators, reducing the subjectivity of the formative assessment process and the time spent for preparation, tabulation and analysis of assessment data. This approach allows instructors to understand better where students struggle, giving to them a more effective feedback. It also helps instructor to plan interventions to help students to perform better and to achieve the learning objectives.

  1. An Initial Assessment of the GOES Microburst Windspeed Potential Index

    CERN Document Server

    Pryor, Kenneth L

    2007-01-01

    A suite of products has been developed and evaluated to assess hazards presented by convective downbursts to aircraft in flight derived from the current generation of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite. The existing suite of GOES microburst products employs the GOES sounder to calculate risk based on conceptual models of favorable environmental profiles for convective downburst generation. Large output values of the microburst index algorithms indicate that the ambient thermodynamic structure of the troposphere fits the prototypical environment for each respective microburst type. Accordingly, a new diagnostic nowcasting product, the Microburst Windspeed Potential Index, is derived from merging existing algorithms and designed to infer the presence of sufficient positive buoyancy and a well-developed convective boundary layer. This paper provides an initial assessment of the MWPI algorithm, presents case studies demonstrating effective operational use of the MWPI product, and presents validatio...

  2. Assessing the potential cost of a failed Doha round

    OpenAIRE

    Bouet, Antoine

    2010-01-01

    This study offers new conclusions on the economic cost of a failed Doha Development Agenda (DDA). We assess potential outcome of the Doha Round as well as four protectionist scenarios using the MIRAGE Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. In a scenario where applied tariffs of World Trade Organization (WTO) economies would go up to currently bound tariff rates, world trade would decrease by 7.7 % and world welfare by US$353 billion. The economic cost of a failed DDA is here evaluated by...

  3. Assessment of potential solder candidates for high temperature applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    package with different solders of different melting temperatures. High Pb containing alloys where the lead levels can be above 85% by weight, is one of the solders currently being used in this technology. Responding to market pressure i.e. need for green electronic products there is now an increasing...... pressure to eliminate lead containing materials despite the fact that materials for high Pb containing alloys are currently not affected by any legislations. A tentative assessment was carried out to determine the potential solder candidates for high temperature applications based on the solidification...

  4. Policy Research Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Impacts of Urban Expansion into Farmlands and Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanley V. Gregory

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of urban land uses into farmlands and forests requires an assessment of future ecological impacts. Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies. When modeling complex adaptive systems, both the methods used to interpret results and the standards of rigor used to judge adequacy are complicated and require additional research. Recent studies suggest that it would be appropriate to use these models as an extension of exploratory analysis. This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about potential changes to the system. In this study, we develop understanding of the potential alternative futures for a social-ecological system by way of successive simulations that test variations in the types and numbers of policies. The model addresses the agricultural-urban interface and the preservation of ecosystem services. The landscape analyzed is at the junction of the McKenzie and Willamette Rivers adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield in Lane County, Oregon. Our exploration of alternative future scenarios suggests that policies that constrain urban growth and create incentives for farming and forest enterprises to preserve and enhance habitat can protect ecosystem resilience and services.

  5. Experience of CEPN in the field of risk assessment and risk management: Perspectives for future developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Research Center for Nuclear Risk Assessment and Management (CEPN) has been involved for many years in the appraisal and management of technological risks and environmental protection in France. The paper gives a general overview of its past experience and presents orientations for future developments which could serve as support for the advancement of the risk assessment and management methodology. Evaluation of large complex industrial systems should allow progresses in the definition of risk and resources allocation criteria. (author). 26 refs

  6. Future perspective of thorium based nuclear fuels and thorium potential of Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Today's nuclear technology has principally been based on the use of fissile U-235 and Pu-239. The existence of thorium in the nature and its potential use in the nuclear technology were not unfortunately into account with a sufficient importance. The global distributions of thorium and uranium reserves indicate that in general some developed countries such as the USA, Canada, Australia, France have considerable uranium reserves, and contrarily only some developing countries such as Turkey, Brazil, India, Egypt have considerable thorium reserves. The studies carried out on the thorium during the last 50 years have clearly showed that the thorium based nuclear fuels have the potential easily use in most of reactor types actually operated with the classical uranium based nuclear fuels without any considerable modification. In the case of the use of thorium based nuclear fuels in future nuclear energy production systems, the serious problems such as the excess of Pu-239, the proliferation potential of nuclear weapons, and also the anxious of nuclear terrorism will probably be resolved, and sustainable nuclear energy production will be realized in the next new century. (authors)

  7. The potential for snow to supply human water demand in the present and future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mankin, Justin S.; Viviroli, Daniel; Singh, Deepti; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

    2015-11-01

    Runoff from snowmelt is regarded as a vital water source for people and ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Numerous studies point to the threat global warming poses to the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt. But analyses focused on snow supply do not show where changes to snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given sub-annual patterns of human water consumption and water availability from rainfall. We identify the NH basins where present spring and summer snowmelt has the greatest potential to supply the human water demand that would otherwise be unmet by instantaneous rainfall runoff. Using a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections, we find that these basins—which together have a present population of ∼2 billion people—are exposed to a 67% risk of decreased snow supply this coming century. Further, in the multi-model mean, 68 basins (with a present population of >300 million people) transition from having sufficient rainfall runoff to meet all present human water demand to having insufficient rainfall runoff. However, internal climate variability creates irreducible uncertainty in the projected future trends in snow resource potential, with about 90% of snow-sensitive basins showing potential for either increases or decreases over the near-term decades. Our results emphasize the importance of snow for fulfilling human water demand in many NH basins, and highlight the need to account for the full range of internal climate variability in developing robust climate risk management decisions.

  8. Trends and Future Potential of Payment for Ecosystem Services to Alleviate Rural Poverty in Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara J. Scherr

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Payment for ecosystem services (PES is a market-based approach to environmental management that compensates land stewards for ecosystem conservation and restoration. Because low-income households and communities control much of the ecologically sensitive land in developing countries, they potentially stand to gain from PES, as environmentally responsible stewardship is assigned a value by various actors in society. To date, however, instances of PES benefiting the poor have been limited mainly to specific localities, small-scale projects, and a handful of broader government programs. We analyze the size, characteristics, and trends of PES to evaluate its future potential to benefit low-income land stewards in developing countries. We estimate that by the year 2030, markets for biodiversity conservation could benefit 10–15 million low-income households in developing countries, carbon markets could benefit 25–50 million, markets for watershed protection could benefit 80–100 million, and markets for landscape beauty and recreation could benefit 5–8 million. If payments and markets reach these potentials, they could provide a non-negligible contribution to poverty alleviation at the global level.

  9. Concentrating solar power. Its potential contribution to a sustainable energy future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    detail, much of what is presented in this report on the development of CSP technologies and economics will also be relevant to these alternative applications of CSP. Following a chapter summarising the policy context, the current status of CSP and associated thermal energy storage technologies are described in Chapters 3 and 4. Chapter 5 then discusses the economics of CSP, considering cost reduction potential and consequent time-frames for cost competitiveness, and the value of CSP with storage and/or auxiliary firing in electricity markets. The environmental impacts of CSP are evaluated in Chapter 6 before a review of the potential future contribution of CSP in Europe and the MENA region presented in Chapter 7. Conclusions and recommendations follow, with a bibliography of the references informing this report and annexes providing supporting detail, and a glossary of terms at Annex 2.

  10. Programmatic Assessment of Potential Induced Radioactivity in Electron Beam Sterilization of Healthcare Products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Mark; Logar, John; Montgomery, Alan; Vrain, Olivier

    2016-08-01

    ISO 11137-1:2006 Sterilization of Healthcare Products-Radiation requires that the potential for induced radioactivity be evaluated for medical devices irradiated with electrons with energy more than 10 MeV. For a manufacturing operation where new devices are being developed, a practical program for making such an evaluation should be engrained in the process, including the device design phase, where selection of materials can make a difference in the potential for activation to occur as a result of the irradiation process. The program, which is based on general assumptions as to the likely activation processes and generalized process assessments is being implemented in three phases: (1) incorporating materials consideration in the design phase, (2) evaluating potential activation empirically, including measurement at the point of irradiation, and (3) implementing routine procedures for the program, including developing a data base of results for consideration in future design efforts. PMID:27356164

  11. Neural Correlates of Self-Appraisals in the Near and Distant Future: An Event-Related Potential Study

    OpenAIRE

    Yangmei Luo; Todd Jackson; Xiaogang Wang; Xiting Huang

    2013-01-01

    To investigate perceptual and neural correlates of future self-appraisals as a function of temporal distance, event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded while participants (11 women, eight men) made judgments about the applicability of trait adjectives to their near future selves (i.e., one month from now) and their distant future selves (i.e., three years from now). Behavioral results indicated people used fewer positive adjectives, more negative adjectives, recalled more specific events ...

  12. The quantification of environmental indicators for sustainability assessment of future electricity supply options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Within the project NEEDS (New Energy Externalities Development for Sustainability) a range of criteria and indicators were defined according to the widely recognised 'three pillar' interpretation of sustainable development in order to assess future electricity generating technologies including their associated fuel cycles. The basic characteristics of the 26 technologies were defined as being appropriate in 2050 according to 'realistic/optimistic' development scenarios. The potential environmental impacts of each technology were assessed by initially determining the various criteria necessary to describe the range of significant impact areas. These criteria were then expressed and measured by one or more quantifiable indicators which were calculated using Life Cycle Inventories established earlier in the project. This report contributed to Research Stream RS2b of the project by quantifying and comparing the results of these indicators for each of the four countries used in the assessment: France, Germany, Switzerland and Italy. The environmental assessment showed that the nuclear technologies cause relatively very low impacts according to most of the indicators. The Generation IV, European Fast Reactor, has significant advantages over the European Pressurised Reactor but the availabilities of the two reactors will be quite different. Whereas the first examples of the EPR are already under construction, the design finalisation of the EFR is not yet complete meaning that the first plant is not expected to be constructed before 2040. An overarching and clear distinction between the fossil fueled technologies was less possible and the application of carbon capture and storage, whilst showing large reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, was shown to be counteracted in a number of other indicators. The integration of solid fuel gasification prior to combustion also showed both benefits and disadvantages. For most indicators, the natural gas combined cycle options

  13. NASA's Vision for Potential Energy Reduction from Future Generations of Propulsion Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haller, Bill

    2015-01-01

    Through a robust partnership with the aviation industry, over the past 50 years NASA programs have helped foster advances in propulsion technology that enabled substantial reductions in fuel consumption for commercial transports. Emerging global trends and continuing environmental concerns are creating challenges that will very likely transform the face of aviation over the next 20-40 years. In recognition of this development, NASA Aeronautics has established a set of Research Thrusts that will help define the future direction of the agency's research technology efforts. Two of these thrusts, Ultra-Efficient Commercial Vehicles and Transition to Low-Carbon Propulsion, serve as cornerstones for the Advanced Air Transport Technology (AATT) project. The AATT project is exploring and developing high-payoff technologies and concepts that are key to continued improvement in energy efficiency and environmental compatibility for future generations of fixed-wing, subsonic transports. The AATT project is primarily focused on the N+3 timeframe, or 3 generations from current technology levels. As should be expected, many of the propulsion system architectures technologies envisioned for N+3 vary significantly from todays engines. The use of batteries in a hybrid-electric configuration or deploying multiple fans distributed across the airframe to enable higher bypass ratios are just two examples of potential advances that could enable substantial energy reductions over current propulsion systems.

  14. PAU-SA: A Synthetic Aperture Interferometric Radiometer Test Bed for Potential Improvements in Future Missions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merce Vall-llosera

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS mission is an Earth Explorer Opportunity mission from the European Space Agency (ESA. Its goal is to produce global maps of soil moisture and ocean salinity using the Microwave Imaging Radiometer by Aperture Synthesis (MIRAS. The purpose of the Passive Advanced Unit Synthetic Aperture (PAU-SA instrument is to study and test some potential improvements that could eventually be implemented in future missions using interferometric radiometers such as the Geoestacionary Atmosferic Sounder (GAS, the Precipitation and All-weather Temperature and Humidity (PATH and the Geostationary Interferometric Microwave Sounder (GIMS. Both MIRAS and PAU-SA are Y-shaped arrays with uniformly distributed antennas, but the receiver topology and the processing unit are quite different. The purpose of this work is to identify the elements in the MIRAS’s design susceptible of improvement and apply them in the PAU-SA instrument demonstrator, to test them in view of these future interferometric radiometer missions.

  15. Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Amanda; Kumar, Sunil; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

    2016-01-01

    Regional analysis of large wildfire potential given climate change scenarios is crucial to understanding areas most at risk in the future, yet wildfire models are not often developed and tested at this spatial scale. We fit three historical climate suitability models for large wildfires (i.e. ≥ 400 ha) in Colorado andWyoming using topography and decadal climate averages corresponding to wildfire occurrence at the same temporal scale. The historical models classified points of known large wildfire occurrence with high accuracies. Using a novel approach in wildfire modeling, we applied the historical models to independent climate and wildfire datasets, and the resulting sensitivities were 0.75, 0.81, and 0.83 for Maxent, Generalized Linear, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, respectively. We projected the historic models into future climate space using data from 15 global circulation models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Maps from these geospatial analyses can be used to evaluate the changing spatial distribution of climate suitability of large wildfires in these states. April relative humidity was the most important covariate in all models, providing insight to the climate space of large wildfires in this region. These methods incorporate monthly and seasonal climate averages at a spatial resolution relevant to land management (i.e. 1 km2) and provide a tool that can be modified for other regions of North America, or adapted for other parts of the world.

  16. Future climate variability impacts on potential erosion and soil organic carbon in European croplands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. van der Velde

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the impact of future climate variability on the potential vulnerability of soils to erosion and the consequences for soil organic carbon (SOC in European croplands. Soil erosion is an important carbon flux not characterized in Earth System Models. We use a~European implementation of EPIC, driven by reference climate data (CNTRL, and climate data with reduced variability (REDVAR. Whether erosion regimes will change across European cropland depends on the spatial conjunction of expected changes in climate variability and physiographic conditions conducive to erosion. We isolated the effect of erosion by performing simulations with and without erosion. Median CNTRL and REDVAR erosion rates equalled 14.4 and 9.1 ton ha−1, and 19.1 and 9.7, for 1981–2010 and 2071–2100, respectively. The total amount of carbon lost from European cropland due to erosion was estimated at 769 Tg C for 1981–2010 (from a total storage of 6197 Tg C without erosion under CNTRL climate. Climate trend impacts reduce the European cropland SOC stock by 578 Tg C without – and by 683 Tg C with erosion, from 1981 to 2100. Climate variability compounds these impacts and decreases the stock by an estimated 170 Tg without erosion and by 314 Tg C with erosion, by the end of the century. Future climate variability and erosion will thus compound impacts on SOC stocks arising from gradual climate change alone.

  17. A Potential Transmitter Architecture for Future Generation Green Wireless Base Station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike Faulkner

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Current radio frequency power amplifiers in 3G base stations have very high power consumption leading to a hefty cost and negative environmental impact. In this paper, we propose a potential architecture design for future wireless base station. Issues associated with components of the architecture are investigated. The all-digital transmitter architecture uses a combination of envelope elimination and restoration (EER and pulse width modulation (PWM/pulse position modulation (PPM modulation. The performance of this architecture is predicted from the measured output power and efficiency curves of a GaN amplifier. 57% efficiency is obtained for an OFDM signal limited to 8 dB peak to average power ratio. The PWM/PPM drive signal is generated using the improved Cartesian sigma delta techniques. It is shown that an RF oversampling by a factor of four meets the WLAN spectral mask, and WCDMA specification is met by an RF oversampling of sixteen.

  18. Ambient new particle formation parameter indicates potential rise in future events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Bonn

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric new particle formation is a general phenomenon observed over coniferous forests. So far nucleation is described as a function of gaseous sulfuric acid concentration only, which is unable to explain the observed seasonality of nucleation events at different measurement sites. Here we introduce a new nucleation parameter including ozone and water vapor concentrations as well as UV-B radiation as a proxy for OH radical formation. Applying this new parameter to field studies conducted at Finnish and German measurement sites it is found capable to predict the occurrence of nucleation events and their seasonal and annual variation indicating a significant role of organics. Extrapolation to possible future conditions of ozone, water vapor and organic concentrations leads to a significant potential increase in nucleation event number.

  19. Potential contributions of noncontact atomic force microscopy for the future Casimir force measurements

    CERN Document Server

    Kim, W J

    2010-01-01

    Surface electric noise, i.e., the non-uniform distribution of charges and potentials on a surface, poses a great experimental challenge in modern precision force measurements. Such a challenge is encountered in a number of different experimental circumstances. The scientists employing atomic force microscopy (AFM) have long focused their efforts to understand the surface-related noise issues via variants of AFM techniques, such as Kelvin probe force microscopy or electric force microscopy. Recently, the physicists investigating quantum vacuum fluctuation phenomena between two closely-spaced objects have also begun to collect experimental evidence indicating a presence of surface effects neglected in their previous analyses. It now appears that the two seemingly disparate science communities are encountering effects rooted in the same surface phenomena. In this report, we suggest specific experimental tasks to be performed in the near future that are crucial not only for fostering needed collaborations between...

  20. Exploration fuel : new computer modelling system allows exploration of Canada's potential energy future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Without significant development of Canada's unconventional gas supplies and a reduction in Canada's natural gas use, Canada will become a net importer of natural gas by 2023, a fact which will have a major impact on oil sands production. This article described a computer model designed to consider Canada's potential energy future in relation to both natural gas supply and demand without considering price. The modelling study showed that new technologies are needed to reduce the amounts of energy used to produce Canada's oil sands resources. Methods such as toe-to-heel air injection (THAI) will provide a more efficient alternative to steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD). The Canadian energy systems simulator (CanESS) was designed to interconnect up to 800 variables, and incorporates data points from Statistics Canada. The model is comprised of quantitative data and a physical economy model. It was concluded that the model can be used to explore the implications of energy policy options. 2 fig

  1. Gene expression profiling in MDS and AML: potential and future avenues

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Theilgaard-Mönch, K; Boultwood, J; Ferrari, S; Giannopoulos, K; Hernandez-Rivas, J M; Kohlmann, A; Morgan, M; Porse, Bo T; Tagliafico, E; Zwaan, C M; Wainscoat, J; Van den Heuvel-Eibrink, M M; Mills, K; Bullinger, L

    2011-01-01

    AML with regard to diagnosis, prediction of clinical outcome, discovery of novel subclasses and identification of novel therapeutic targets and novel drugs. As many challenges remain ahead, we discuss the pitfalls of this technology and its potential including future integrative studies with other......, and even within some cytogenetically well-defined subclasses there is considerable clinical heterogeneity. Recent advances in genomics technologies such as gene expression profiling (GEP) provide powerful tools to further characterize myeloid malignancies at the molecular level, with the goal to...... genomics technologies, which will continue to improve our understanding of malignant transformation in myeloid malignancies and thereby contribute to individualized risk-adapted treatment strategies for MDS and AML patients....

  2. Current status and future potential of energy derived from Chinese agricultural land: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Ningning; Mao, Chunlan; Feng, Yongzhong; Zhang, Tong; Xing, Zhenjie; Wang, Yanhong; Zou, Shuzhen; Yin, Dongxue; Han, Xinhui; Ren, Guangxin; Yang, Gaihe

    2015-01-01

    Energy crisis is receiving attention with regard to the global economy and environmental sustainable development. Developing new energy resources to optimize the energy supply structure has become an important measure to prevent energy shortage as well as achieving energy conservation and emission reduction in China. This study proposed the concept of energy agriculture and constructed an energy agricultural technical support system based on the analysis of energy supply and demand and China's foreign dependence on energy resources, combined with the function of agriculture in the energy field. Manufacturing technology equipment and agricultural and forestry energy, including crop or forestry plants and animal feces, were used in the system. The current status and future potential of China's marginal land resources, energy crop germplasm resources, and agricultural and forestry waste energy-oriented resources were analyzed. Developing the function of traditional agriculture in food production may promote China's social, economic, and environmental sustainable development and achieve energy saving and emission reduction. PMID:25874229

  3. Future Potential of Hybrid and Diesel Powertrains in the U.S. Light-duty Vehicle Market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, D.L.

    2004-08-23

    Diesel and hybrid technologies each have the potential to increase light-duty vehicle fuel economy by a third or more without loss of performance, yet these technologies have typically been excluded from technical assessments of fuel economy potential on the grounds that hybrids are too expensive and diesels cannot meet Tier 2 emissions standards. Recently, hybrid costs have come down and the few hybrid makes available are selling well. Diesels have made great strides in reducing particulate and nitrogen oxide emissions, and are likely though not certain to meet future standards. In light of these developments, this study takes a detailed look at the market potential of these two powertrain technologies and their possible impacts on light-duty vehicle fuel economy. A nested multinomial logit model of vehicle choice was calibrated to 2002 model year sales of 930 makes, models and engine-transmission configurations. Based on an assessment of the status and outlook for the two technologies, market shares were predicted for 2008, 2012 and beyond, assuming no additional increase in fuel economy standards or other new policy initiatives. Current tax incentives for hybrids are assumed to be phased out by 2008. Given announced and likely introductions by 2008, hybrids could capture 4-7% and diesels 2-4% of the light-duty market. Based on our best guesses for further introductions, these shares could increase to 10-15% for hybrids and 4-7% for diesels by 2012. The resulting impacts on fleet average fuel economy would be about +2% in 2008 and +4% in 2012. If diesels and hybrids were widely available across vehicle classes, makes, and models, they could capture 40% or more of the light-duty vehicle market.

  4. Risk Informed Assessment of Regulatory and Design Requirements for Future Nuclear Power Plants - Final Technical Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ritterbusch, Stanley; Golay, Michael; Duran, Felicia; Galyean, William; Gupta, Abhinav; Dimitrijevic, Vesna; Malsch, Marty

    2003-01-29

    OAK B188 Summary of methods proposed for risk informing the design and regulation of future nuclear power plants. All elements of the historical design and regulation process are preserved, but the methods proposed for new plants use probabilistic risk assessment methods as the primary decision making tool.

  5. The Belem Framework for Action: Harnessing the Power and Potential of Adult Learning and Education for a Viable Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adult Learning, 2012

    2012-01-01

    This article presents the Belem Framework for Action. This framework focuses on harnessing the power and potential of adult learning and education for a viable future. This framework begins with a preamble on adult education and towards lifelong learning.

  6. Assessing The Potential Of Stratospheric Balloons For Planteary Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kremic, Tibor

    2012-10-01

    Recent developments in high altitude balloon platform capabilities, specifically long duration flights in excess of 50 days at over 100,000 ft and precision pointing with performance at the arc sec level or better have raised the question whether this platform can be utilized for high-value planetary science observations. In January of 2012 a workshop was held at NASA Glenn Research Center in Cleveland, Oh to explore what planetary science can be achieved utilizing such a platform. Over 40 science concepts were identified by the scientists and engineers attending the workshop. Those ideas were captured and then posted to a public website for all interested planetary scientists to review and comment on. The results of the workshop, and subsequent community review, have demonstrated that this platform appears to have potential for high-value science at very competitive costs. Given these positive results, the assessment process was extended to include 1) examining, in more detail, the requirements for the gondola platform and the mission scenarios 2) identifying technical challenges and 3) developing one or more platform concepts in enough fidelity to enable accurate estimating of development and mission costs. Upon completion, assessment results will be provided to NASA’s planetary science division to help them determine whether to embark on science efforts utilizing this platform. The poster will provide the current status of the assessment efforts.

  7. Reef Fish Survey Techniques: Assessing the Potential for Standardizing Methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, Zachary R.; Zgliczynski, Brian J.; Williams, Gareth J.; Sandin, Stuart A.

    2016-01-01

    Dramatic changes in populations of fishes living on coral reefs have been documented globally and, in response, the research community has initiated efforts to assess and monitor reef fish assemblages. A variety of visual census techniques are employed, however results are often incomparable due to differential methodological performance. Although comparability of data may promote improved assessment of fish populations, and thus management of often critically important nearshore fisheries, to date no standardized and agreed-upon survey method has emerged. This study describes the use of methods across the research community and identifies potential drivers of method selection. An online survey was distributed to researchers from academic, governmental, and non-governmental organizations internationally. Although many methods were identified, 89% of survey-based projects employed one of three methods–belt transect, stationary point count, and some variation of the timed swim method. The selection of survey method was independent of the research design (i.e., assessment goal) and region of study, but was related to the researcher’s home institution. While some researchers expressed willingness to modify their current survey protocols to more standardized protocols (76%), their willingness decreased when methodologies were tied to long-term datasets spanning five or more years. Willingness to modify current methodologies was also less common among academic researchers than resource managers. By understanding both the current application of methods and the reported motivations for method selection, we hope to focus discussions towards increasing the comparability of quantitative reef fish survey data. PMID:27111085

  8. Reef Fish Survey Techniques: Assessing the Potential for Standardizing Methodologies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zachary R Caldwell

    Full Text Available Dramatic changes in populations of fishes living on coral reefs have been documented globally and, in response, the research community has initiated efforts to assess and monitor reef fish assemblages. A variety of visual census techniques are employed, however results are often incomparable due to differential methodological performance. Although comparability of data may promote improved assessment of fish populations, and thus management of often critically important nearshore fisheries, to date no standardized and agreed-upon survey method has emerged. This study describes the use of methods across the research community and identifies potential drivers of method selection. An online survey was distributed to researchers from academic, governmental, and non-governmental organizations internationally. Although many methods were identified, 89% of survey-based projects employed one of three methods-belt transect, stationary point count, and some variation of the timed swim method. The selection of survey method was independent of the research design (i.e., assessment goal and region of study, but was related to the researcher's home institution. While some researchers expressed willingness to modify their current survey protocols to more standardized protocols (76%, their willingness decreased when methodologies were tied to long-term datasets spanning five or more years. Willingness to modify current methodologies was also less common among academic researchers than resource managers. By understanding both the current application of methods and the reported motivations for method selection, we hope to focus discussions towards increasing the comparability of quantitative reef fish survey data.

  9. Modelization of the Current and Future Habitat Suitability of Rhododendron ferrugineum Using Potential Snow Accumulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Komac

    Full Text Available Mountain areas are particularly sensitive to climate change. Species distribution models predict important extinctions in these areas whose magnitude will depend on a number of different factors. Here we examine the possible impact of climate change on the Rhododendron ferrugineum (alpenrose niche in Andorra (Pyrenees. This species currently occupies 14.6 km2 of this country and relies on the protection afforded by snow cover in winter. We used high-resolution climatic data, potential snow accumulation and a combined forecasting method to obtain the realized niche model of this species. Subsequently, we used data from the high-resolution Scampei project climate change projection for the A2, A1B and B1 scenarios to model its future realized niche model. The modelization performed well when predicting the species's distribution, which improved when we considered the potential snow accumulation, the most important variable influencing its distribution. We thus obtained a potential extent of about 70.7 km(2 or 15.1% of the country. We observed an elevation lag distribution between the current and potential distribution of the species, probably due to its slow colonization rate and the small-scale survey of seedlings. Under the three climatic scenarios, the realized niche model of the species will be reduced by 37.9-70.1 km(2 by the end of the century and it will become confined to what are today screes and rocky hillside habitats. The particular effects of climate change on seedling establishment, as well as on the species' plasticity and sensitivity in the event of a reduction of the snow cover, could worsen these predictions.

  10. Hydrological assessment for mini hydropower potential at Sungai Pahang - Temerloh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sg Pahang at Temerloh was considered for assessment of hydropower potential using hydrological analysis method and hydrological model. The available data related to topography, soil, land use, weather and discharge pertaining to the study catchment were used to characterize the catchment. The characterization was required for water resources hence hydropower assessment. The hydrology of the study catchment was simulated through the model. This hydrological study is required due to the proposed mini hydroelectric power plant at Pulau Temerloh. It is essential to evaluate the existing river flow characteristic and to model the environmental flow assessment of the river. Two rainfalll stations, JPS Temerloh and Pintu Kawalan Paya Kertam Station are selected to develop the Rainfall Intensity Duration frequency (RIDF) Curve to determine the rainfall intensity of the area. Daily river flow were recorded at Sg Pahang at Temerloh and Sg Pahang at Lubok Paku were used to develop the Flow Duration Curve (FDC) to study the characteristic of Sungai Pahang flow. The 7 days low flow with 10 years return period (7Q10 low flow) was obtained using both Gumbel Method and Log Pearson Type III Method. The results from FDC shows that 50% percentage of time the Sg Pahang - Temerloh is exceeded over a historical period is 400 m3/s and 50% percentage of time the Sg Pahang - Lubok Paku is exceeded over a historical period is 650 m3/s. The required environmental flow are set to be 7Q10 low flow which is 64.215 m3/s for Sg Pahang at Temerloh and 79.24 m3/s for Sg Pahang at Lubok Paku. The results show the water resources are abundant and hence boost the mini hydropower potentiality at Sg Pahang.

  11. Hydrological assessment for mini hydropower potential at Sungai Pahang @ Temerloh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidek, L. M.; Zaki, A. Z. A.; Mustaffa, Z.; Ibrahim, M. I. H.; Muda, Z. C.; Thiruchelvam, S.; Basri, H.

    2013-06-01

    Sg Pahang at Temerloh was considered for assessment of hydropower potential using hydrological analysis method and hydrological model. The available data related to topography, soil, land use, weather and discharge pertaining to the study catchment were used to characterize the catchment. The characterization was required for water resources hence hydropower assessment. The hydrology of the study catchment was simulated through the model. This hydrological study is required due to the proposed mini hydroelectric power plant at Pulau Temerloh. It is essential to evaluate the existing river flow characteristic and to model the environmental flow assessment of the river. Two rainfalll stations, JPS Temerloh and Pintu Kawalan Paya Kertam Station are selected to develop the Rainfall Intensity Duration frequency (RIDF) Curve to determine the rainfall intensity of the area. Daily river flow were recorded at Sg Pahang at Temerloh and Sg Pahang at Lubok Paku were used to develop the Flow Duration Curve (FDC) to study the characteristic of Sungai Pahang flow. The 7 days low flow with 10 years return period (7Q10 low flow) was obtained using both Gumbel Method and Log Pearson Type III Method. The results from FDC shows that 50% percentage of time the Sg Pahang @ Temerloh is exceeded over a historical period is 400 m3/s and 50% percentage of time the Sg Pahang @ Lubok Paku is exceeded over a historical period is 650 m3/s. The required environmental flow are set to be 7Q10 low flow which is 64.215 m3/s for Sg Pahang at Temerloh and 79.24 m3/s for Sg Pahang at Lubok Paku. The results show the water resources are abundant and hence boost the mini hydropower potentiality at Sg Pahang.

  12. Evaluating stakeholder participation in water management: intermediary outcomes as potential indicators for future resource management outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Gemma; Bloeschl, Guenter; Loucks, Daniel Pete

    2013-04-01

    . Furthermore, failure to achieve intermediary outcomes correlates to failure to achieve resource management outcomes. Evaluating intermediary outcomes leads to both a broader assessment of a programme's achievements at the time of evaluation, and can indicate whether a programme will go on to achieve resource management objectives in the future.

  13. The potential distribution of bioenergy crops in the UK under present and future climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We have predicted the potential distribution of 26 bioenergy crops in the UK, based on the simple model described by Tuck et al. The model has been applied at a 5 km resolution using the UKCIP02 model for scenarios at Low, Medium-Low, Medium-High and High emissions. In the analysis of the results the limitations for crop growth are assigned to elevation, temperature, high and low rainfall. Most of the crops currently grown are predicted to remain prevalent in the UK. A number of crops are suitable for introduction to the UK under a changing climate, whereas others retreat to northern parts of the UK. The greatest changes are expected in England. The simplicity of the model means that it has a relatively high uncertainty, with minor modifications to the model leading to quite different results. Nevertheless, it is well suited for identifying areas and crops that are most likely to be affected by the greatest changes. It has been noted that Miscanthus and Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) willow and poplar, which are currently regarded as highly suitable for UK conditions, may be less suited to southern areas in the future, where, for example, kenaf could have a greater potential. Further investigations are required to reduce uncertainty associated with the projections based on this simple model and to make conclusions more firmly. (author)

  14. Phenotypic and genetic divergence within a single whitefish form - detecting the potential for future divergence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Philipp Emanuel; Eckmann, Reiner; Oppelt, Claus; Behrmann-Godel, Jasminca

    2013-12-01

    Human-induced nutrient input can change the selection regime and lead to the loss of biodiversity. For example, eutrophication caused speciation reversal in polymorphic whitefish populations through a flattening of littoral-pelagic selection gradients. We investigated the current state of phenotypic and genetic diversity in whitefish (Coregonus macrophthalmus) in a newly restored lake whose nutrient load has returned to pre-eutrophication levels and found that whitefish spawning at different depths varied phenotypically and genetically: individuals spawning at shallower depth had fewer gill rakers, faster growth, and a morphology adapted to benthic feeding, and they showed higher degrees of diet specialization than deeper spawning individuals. Microsatellite analyses complemented the phenotype analyses by demonstrating reproductive isolation along different spawning depths. Our results indicate that whitefish still retain or currently regain phenotypic and genetic diversity, which was lost during eutrophication. Hence, the population documented here has a potential for future divergence because natural selection can target phenotypes specialized along re-established littoral-pelagic selection gradients. The biodiversity, however, will have better chances to return if managers acknowledge the evolutionary potential within the local whitefish and adapt fishing and stocking measures. PMID:24478795

  15. Characterizing the Leaching Behavior of Coal Combustion Residues using the Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF) to Inform Future Management Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abstract for presentation on Characterizing the Leaching Behavior of Coal Combustion Residues using the Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF) to Inform Future Management Decisions. The abstract is attached.

  16. Preliminary assessment of potential CDM early start projects in Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyers, S.; Sathaye, J.; Lehman, B.; Schumacher, K.; van Vliet, O.; Moreira, J.R.

    2000-11-01

    The Brazil/US Aspen Global Forum on Climate Change Policies and Programs has facilitated a dialogue between key Brazil and US public and private sector leaders on the subject of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). With support from the US government, a cooperative effort between Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the University of Sao Paulo conducted an assessment of a number of projects put forth by Brazilian sponsors. Initially, we gathered information and conducted a screening assessment for ten projects in the energy sector and six projects in the forestry sector. Some of the projects appeared to offer greater potential to be attractive for CDM, or had better information available. We then conducted a more detailed assessment of 12 of these projects, and two other projects that were submitted after the initial screening. An important goal was to assess the potential impact of Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) on the financial performance of projects. With the exception of the two forestry-based fuel displacement projects, the impact of CERs on the internal rate of return (IRR) is fairly small. This is true for both the projects that displace grid electricity and those that displace local (diesel-based) electricity production. The relative effect of CERs is greater for projects whose IRR without CERs is low. CERs have a substantial effect on the IRR of the two short-rotation forestry energy substitution projects. One reason is that the biofuel displaces coke and oil, both of which are carbon-intensive. Another factor is that the product of these projects (charcoal and woodfuel, respectively) is relatively low value, so the revenue from carbon credits has a strong relative impact. CERs also have a substantial effect on the NPV of the carbon sequestration projects. Financial and other barriers pose a challenge for implementation of most of the projects. In most cases, the sponsor lacks sufficient capital, and loans are available only at high interest

  17. Performance assessment for future low-level waste disposal facilities at ORNL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper discusses the strategy for waste management on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) and the approach to preparing future performance assessments that has evolved from previous performance assessment studies of low-level radioactive waste disposal on the ORR. The strategy for waste management is based on the concept that waste classification should be determined by performance assessment other than the sources of waste. This dose-based strategy for waste classification and management places special importance on the preparation and interpretation of waste disposal performance assessments for selecting appropriate disposal technologies and developing waste acceptance criteria. Additionally, the challenges to be overcome in the preparation of performance assessments are discussed. 7 refs

  18. Regional assessment of the hydropower potential of rivers in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kling, Harald; Stanzel, Philipp; Fuchs, Martin

    2016-04-01

    The 15 countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) face a constant shortage of energy supply, which limits sustained economic growth. Currently there are about 50 operational hydropower plants and about 40 more are under construction or refurbishment. The potential for future hydropower development - especially for small-scale plants in rural areas - is assumed to be large, but exact data are missing. This study supports the energy initiatives of the "ECOWAS Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency" (ECREEE) by assessing the hydropower potential of all rivers in West Africa. For more than 500,000 river reaches the hydropower potential was computed from channel slope and mean annual discharge. In large areas there is a lack of discharge observations. Therefore, an annual water balance model was used to simulate discharge. The model domain covers 5 Mio km², including e.g. the Niger, Volta, and Senegal River basins. The model was calibrated with observed data of 410 gauges, using precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data as inputs. Historic variations of observed annual discharge between 1950 and 2010 are simulated well by the model. As hydropower plants are investments with a lifetime of several decades we also assessed possible changes in future discharge due to climate change. To this end the water balance model was driven with bias-corrected climate projections of 15 Regional Climate Models for two emission scenarios of the CORDEX-Africa ensemble. The simulation results for the river network were up-scaled to sub-areas and national summaries. This information gives a regional quantification of the hydropower potential, expected climate change impacts, as well as a regional classification for general suitability (or non-suitability) of hydropower plant size - from small-scale to large projects.

  19. Resource potential of bamboo, challenges and future directions towards sustainable management and utilization in Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Getachew Desalegn

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: Bamboo, the fastest growing and high yielding perennial plant of the world has more than 1500 species and 1500 versatile socio-economic uses and ecological services. Ethiopia has two indigenous bamboo species namely Yushania alpina and Oxytenantheria abyssinica, covering about one million ha with a wide distribution. The objective of this paper is to highlight the potential of bamboo resources, challenges including biodeterioration damage, opportunities and future research directions towards its sustainable management and rational utilization.Area of study: Bamboo resources of EthiopiaMaterial and Methods: Reconnaissance survey was done to some parts of the bamboo growing potential areas in Ethiopia besides the literature review. Main results: The bamboo resource, despite its socio-economic and environmental benefits, currently, in most areas has been under high pressure due to land use changes, bamboo mass- flowering, poor processing with low value addition, and damage by biodeteriorating agents (termites, beetles and fungi. The preservative tests on Ethiopian bamboos revealed low natural durability and highlighted the paramount importance of appropriate protection measures such as Tanalith and vehicles used motor oil to increase durability, service life and rational utilization of bamboo-based products and structures as potential alternative construction and furniture material.Research highlights: Therefore, integrated research and development interventions involving different propagation and managements techniques, harvesting season, processing, value addition including proper seasoning and preservation technologies and marketing are recommended to fill the information and technological gaps on sustainable management and rational utilization of this fast growing and multipurpose bamboo resources in Ethiopia.Key words: Bamboo; challenges; management; socio-economic and environmental significance; utilization.

  20. Predicting potential responses to future climate in an alpine ungulate: interspecific interactions exceed climate effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, Tom H E; Stephens, Philip A; Apollonio, Marco; Willis, Stephen G

    2014-12-01

    The altitudinal shifts of many montane populations are lagging behind climate change. Understanding habitual, daily behavioural rhythms, and their climatic and environmental influences, could shed light on the constraints on long-term upslope range-shifts. In addition, behavioural rhythms can be affected by interspecific interactions, which can ameliorate or exacerbate climate-driven effects on ecology. Here, we investigate the relative influences of ambient temperature and an interaction with domestic sheep (Ovis aries) on the altitude use and activity budgets of a mountain ungulate, the Alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra). Chamois moved upslope when it was hotter but this effect was modest compared to that of the presence of sheep, to which they reacted by moving 89-103 m upslope, into an entirely novel altitudinal range. Across the European Alps, a range-shift of this magnitude corresponds to a 46% decrease in the availability of suitable foraging habitat. This highlights the importance of understanding how factors such as competition and disturbance shape a given species' realised niche when predicting potential future responses to change. Furthermore, it exposes the potential for manipulations of species interactions to ameliorate the impacts of climate change, in this case by the careful management of livestock. Such manipulations could be particularly appropriate for species where competition or disturbance already strongly restricts their available niche. Our results also reveal the potential role of behavioural flexibility in responses to climate change. Chamois reduced their activity when it was warmer, which could explain their modest altitudinal migrations. Considering this behavioural flexibility, our model predicts a small 15-30 m upslope shift by 2100 in response to climate change, less than 4% of the altitudinal shift that would be predicted using a traditional species distribution model-type approach (SDM), which assumes that species' behaviour

  1. Potential impacts of topography and prevailing wind direction on future precipitation changes in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsunematsu, N.; Dairaku, K.; Hirano, J.

    2013-12-01

    To investigate future changes in summertime precipitation amounts over the Japanese islands and their relations to the topographical heights, this study analyzed 20 km horizontal grid-spacing regional climate model downscalings of MIROC3.2-hires 20C3M and SRES-A1B scenario data for the periods of 1981-2000 and 2081-2100. Results indicate the remarkable increases in June-July-August mean daily precipitation in the west and south sides (windward sides) of the mountainous regions, especially in western Japan where heavy rainfall is frequently observed in the recent climate. The remarkable increases in summertime precipitation are likely to occur not only in high altitude areas but also at low altitudes. The occurrence frequencies of precipitation greater than 100 mm/day would also increase in such areas. The intensification of southwesterly moist air flows in the lower troposphere is considered to be one of the main causes of those precipitation changes because the intensified southwesterly moist air flows impinging on the western and southern slopes of the mountains can generate stronger upslope flows and well-developed clouds, leading to increased precipitation. Also, the results show that future precipitation changes in the lee sides of the mountainous regions (e.g., the Tokyo metropolitan area) would be comparatively small. These results indicate large influences of topography and prevailing wind direction on future precipitation changes. Acknowledgments: This study was conducted as part of the research subject "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Water Hazard Assessed Using Regional Climate Scenarios in the Tokyo Region' (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention; PI: Koji Dairaku) of Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA) and was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan. We thank the regional climate modeling groups (MRI

  2. Assessment of the potential of LWECS in the Netherlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dub, W.

    1981-04-01

    The potential of large wind energy conversion systems (LWECS) in the Netherlands is assessed. Hourly data on mean wind speeds and wind directions from 5 stations are analyzed and extrapolated up to a height of 100 m and monthly and annual mean wind speeds. The wind power conversion efficiency of wind turbines and the monthly and annual energy production of WECS 1 are calculated. The daily wind energy production of a compound system of 3 MW wind turbines and the daily percentages of the 1980 national electric power needs they would meet are determined using 1975 wind data. The number of 3 MW and 0.8 MW wind turbines required to produce 9.97 TWh per year is determined.

  3. Development and validation of an instrument to assess future orientation and resilience in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Maggio, Ilaria; Ginevra, Maria Cristina; Nota, Laura; Soresi, Salvatore

    2016-08-01

    The study is aimed at providing the development and initial validation of the Design My Future (DMF), which may be administered in career counseling and research activities to assess adolescents' future orientation and resilience. Two studies with two independent samples of Italian adolescents were conducted to examine psychometric requisites of DMF. Specifically, in the first study, after developing items and examined the content validity, the factorial structure, reliability and discriminant validity of the DMF were tested. In the second study, the measurement invariance across gender, conducing a sequence of nested CFA models, was evaluated. Results showed good psychometric support for the instrument with Italian adolescents. PMID:27348551

  4. WP-Cave - assessment of feasibility, safety and development potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    According to SKB R and D-programme 1986, alternative disposal methods will be investigated to provide a basis for selecting a site and a repository system for the Swedish spent nuclear fuel. The present report is a comparison between the WP-Cave and the reference concept KBS-3. The comparison has resulted in the following conclusions: - Both concepts are judged to be able to provide adequate safety. - A utilization of the potential of the WP-Cave requires, however, extensive development in areas where the current state of knowledge and available data are incomplete. - The higher temperatures in the WP-Cave lead to greater uncertainty as to long-term performance. Reducing this uncertainty would require many yaers of research and substantial resources. - Both repositories, including the barriers they incorporate, could be built with a normal adaption of available technology. -It is not possible to say today whether it would be simpler to find suitable sites for one design or the other. - The WP-Cave is considerably more expensive. A future research direction based on a concentrated emplacement of spent fuel along the lines of the WP-Cave is therefore judged to entail greater uncertainty as regards the possibilities of achieving acceptable safety and to require greater resources for research and development, at the same time as the costs of building the repository would be higher. The studies of the WP-Cave as an integral system should therfore be discontinued. Certain barrier designs in the WP-Cave could also be utulized in repository designs with lower temperature, for example the reduction potential of the steel canisters and the hydraulic cage's diversion of groundwater. Studies within these areas are being conducted within SKB and should continue

  5. Assessing the potential of stratospheric balloons for planetary science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kremic, T.; Hibbitts, K.; Young, E.; Landis, R.; Noll, K.; Baines, K.

    Recent developments in high altitude balloon platform capabilities, specifically long duration flights in excess of 50 days at over 100,000 ft and precision pointing with performance at the arc sec level or better have raised the question whether this platform can be utilized for high-value planetary science observations. In January of 2012 a workshop was held at NASA Glenn Research Center in Cleveland, Ohio to explore what planetary science can be achieved utilizing such a platform. Over 40 science concepts were identified by the scientists and engineers attending the workshop. Those ideas were captured and then posted to a public website for all interested planetary scientists to review and give their comments. The results of the workshop, and subsequent community review, have demonstrated that this platform appears to have potential for high-value science at very competitive costs. Given these positive results, the assessment process was extended to include 1) examining, in more detail, the requirements for the gondola platform and the mission scenarios 2) identifying technical challenges and 3) developing one or more platform concepts in enough fidelity to enable accurate estimating of development and mission costs. This paper provides a review of the assessment, a summary of the achievable science and the challenges to make that science a reality with this platform.

  6. Potential Improvements in Human Reliability Analysis for Fire Risk Assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The results of numerous fire risk assessments (FRA) and the experience gained from actual fire events have shown that fire can be a significant contributor to nuclear power plant (NPP) risk. However, on the basis of reviews of the FRAs performed for the Individual Plant External Events Examination (IPEEE) program in the U.S. and on recent research performed by U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to support increased use of risk information in regulatory decision making [e.g., Ref. 1, 2], it has become clear that improved modelling and quantification of human performance during fire events requires a better treatment of the special environment and response context produced by fires. This paper describes fire-related factors that have been identified as potentially impacting human performance, discusses to what extent such factors were modelled in the IPEEE FRAs, discusses prioritization of the factors likely to be most important to a realistic assessment of plant safety, and discusses which factors are likely to need additional research and development in order to allow adequate modelling in the human reliability analysis (HRA) portions of FRAs. The determination of which factors need to be modelled and the improvement of HRA related approaches for modelling such factors are critical aspects of the NRC's plan to improve FRA methods, tools, and data and to update a number of existing FRAs. (authors)

  7. An interlaboratory comparison of methods used to assess antioxidant potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buenger, J; Ackermann, H; Jentzsch, A; Mehling, A; Pfitzner, I; Reiffen, K-A; Schroeder, K-R; Wollenweber, U

    2006-04-01

    Many analytical methods are used to measure the antioxidative activity of substances yet little is known about the comparability of the test results between laboratories. After an initial evaluation of a broad range of methods conducted by one laboratory, the 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) assay, the trolox equivalent antioxidant capacity (TEAC) assay, the lipid assay (or 2,2'-azobis(2-aminepropane) (ABAP) assay) and the thiobarbituric acid (TBA) assay were selected to be evaluated in the interlaboratory study. The antioxidative potentials of trolox, tocopherol, lipochroman-6, ascorbic acid, 4-methyl-brenzcatechin, and/or 3,5-di-tert-butyl-4-hydroxytoluene (BHT) were assessed using each of the methods. These methods were then evaluated in respect of their reproducibility and classification properties. Based on the results of this study, the DPPH assay followed by the TEAC assay yielded the best results based on reproducibility and sensitivity both within one laboratory and between laboratories. The results of the interlaboratory study were then compared with the single center results obtained from the commercially available photochemolumiescence (PCL) kit. To assess the transferability of chemical data to biological systems, they were also compared with the single center results obtained using the cell-based Dichlorodihydrofluoresceine (DCFH) assay. PMID:18492148

  8. Flood Risk Analysis and Flood Potential Losses Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    The heavy floods in the Taihu Basin showed increasing trend in recent years. In thiswork, a typical area in the northern Taihu Basin was selected for flood risk analysis and potentialflood losses assessment. Human activities have strong impact on the study area' s flood situation (asaffected by the polders built, deforestation, population increase, urbanization, etc. ), and havemade water level higher, flood duration shorter, and flood peaks sharper. Five years of differentflood return periods [(1970), 5 (1962), 10 (1987), 20 (1954), 50 (1991)] were used to cal-culate the potential flood risk area and its losses. The potential flood risk map, economic losses,and flood-impacted population were also calculated. The study's main conclusions are: 1 ) Humanactivities have strongly changed the natural flood situation in the study area, increasing runoff andflooding; 2) The flood risk area is closely related with the precipitation center; 3) Polder construc-tion has successfully protected land from flood, shortened the flood duration, and elevated waterlevel in rivers outside the polders; 4) Economic and social development have caused flood losses toincrease in recent years.

  9. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faber, Irene R; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T; Faber, Niels R; Oosterveld, Frits G J; Nijhuis-Van der Sanden, Maria W G

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be included in a talent

  10. Evaluating the Potential of NASA's Earth Science Research Results for Improving Future Operational Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederick, M. E.; Cox, E. L.; Friedl, L. A.

    2006-12-01

    evaluation of many and varied NASA research results for their potential to be candidates for further development as an ISS project. The intention is to seed the community with many creative ideas for projects that use "un-applied" NASA research results to serve society, such as simulations of future missions.

  11. Potential of 3D City Models to assess flood vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröter, Kai; Bochow, Mathias; Schüttig, Martin; Nagel, Claus; Ross, Lutz; Kreibich, Heidi

    2016-04-01

    Vulnerability, as the product of exposure and susceptibility, is a key factor of the flood risk equation. Furthermore, the estimation of flood loss is very sensitive to the choice of the vulnerability model. Still, in contrast to elaborate hazard simulations, vulnerability is often considered in a simplified manner concerning the spatial resolution and geo-location of exposed objects as well as the susceptibility of these objects at risk. Usually, area specific potential flood loss is quantified on the level of aggregated land-use classes, and both hazard intensity and resistance characteristics of affected objects are represented in highly simplified terms. We investigate the potential of 3D City Models and spatial features derived from remote sensing data to improve the differentiation of vulnerability in flood risk assessment. 3D City Models are based on CityGML, an application scheme of the Geography Markup Language (GML), which represents the 3D geometry, 3D topology, semantics and appearance of objects on different levels of detail. As such, 3D City Models offer detailed spatial information which is useful to describe the exposure and to characterize the susceptibility of residential buildings at risk. This information is further consolidated with spatial features of the building stock derived from remote sensing data. Using this database a spatially detailed flood vulnerability model is developed by means of data-mining. Empirical flood damage data are used to derive and to validate flood susceptibility models for individual objects. We present first results from a prototype application in the city of Dresden, Germany. The vulnerability modeling based on 3D City Models and remote sensing data is compared i) to the generally accepted good engineering practice based on area specific loss potential and ii) to a highly detailed representation of flood vulnerability based on a building typology using urban structure types. Comparisons are drawn in terms of

  12. Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks under future climate and land cover changes in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yigini, Yusuf; Panagos, Panos

    2016-07-01

    Soil organic carbon plays an important role in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems, variations in soil organic carbon stocks are very important for the ecosystem. In this study, a geostatistical model was used for predicting current and future soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe. The first phase of the study predicts current soil organic carbon content by using stepwise multiple linear regression and ordinary kriging and the second phase of the study projects the soil organic carbon to the near future (2050) by using a set of environmental predictors. We demonstrate here an approach to predict present and future soil organic carbon stocks by using climate, land cover, terrain and soil data and their projections. The covariates were selected for their role in the carbon cycle and their availability for the future model. The regression-kriging as a base model is predicting current SOC stocks in Europe by using a set of covariates and dense SOC measurements coming from LUCAS Soil Database. The base model delivers coefficients for each of the covariates to the future model. The overall model produced soil organic carbon maps which reflect the present and the future predictions (2050) based on climate and land cover projections. The data of the present climate conditions (long-term average (1950-2000)) and the future projections for 2050 were obtained from WorldClim data portal. The future climate projections are the recent climate projections mentioned in the Fifth Assessment IPCC report. These projections were extracted from the global climate models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest an overall increase in SOC stocks by 2050 in Europe (EU26) under all climate and land cover scenarios, but the extent of the increase varies between the climate model and emissions scenarios. PMID:27082446

  13. Geologic and environmental characteristics of porphyry copper deposits with emphasis on potential future development in the Bristol Bay Watershed, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seal, Robert R., II

    2012-01-01

    This report is prepared in cooperation with the Bristol Bay Watershed Assessment being conducted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The goal of the assessment is to help understand how future large-scale development in this watershed may affect water quality and the salmon fishery. Mining has been identified as a potential source of future large scale development in the region, especially because of the advanced stage of activity at the Pebble prospect. The goal of this report is to summarize the geologic and environmental characteristics of porphyry copper deposits in general, largely on the basis of literature review. Data reported in the Pebble Project Environmental Baseline Document, released by the Pebble Limited Partnership in 2011, are used to enhance the relevance of this report to the Bristol Bay watershed. The geologic characteristics of mineral deposits are paramount to determining their geochemical signatures in the environment. The geologic characteristics of mineral deposits are reflected in the mineralogy of the mineralization and alteration assemblages; geochemical associations of elements, including the commodities being sought; the grade and tonnage of the deposit; the likely mining and ore-processing methods used; the environmental attributes of the deposit, such as acid-generating and acid-neutralizing potentials of geologic materials; and the susceptibility of the surrounding ecosystem to various stressors related to the deposit and its mining, among other features (Seal and Hammarstrom, 2003). Within the Bristol Bay watershed, or more specifically the Nushagak and Kvichak watersheds, the geologic setting is permissive for the occurrence of several mineral deposit types that are amenable for large-scale development. Of these deposit types, porphyry copper deposits (e.g., Pebble) and intrusion-related gold deposits (e.g., Shotgun) are the most important on the basis of the current maturity of exploration activities by the mining

  14. Anesthetic gases and global warming: Potentials, prevention and future of anesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadani, Hina; Vyas, Arun

    2011-01-01

    Global warming refers to an average increase in the earth's temperature, which in turn causes changes in climate. A warmer earth may lead to changes in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea level, and a wide range of impacts on plants, wildlife, and humans. Greenhouse gases make the earth warmer by trapping energy inside the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases are any gas that absorbs infrared radiation in the atmosphere and include: water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), halogenated fluorocarbons (HCFCs), ozone (O3), perfluorinated carbons (PFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Hazardous chemicals enter the air we breathe as a result of dozens of activities carried out during a typical day at a healthcare facility like processing lab samples, burning fossil fuels etc. We sometimes forget that anesthetic agents are also greenhouse gases (GHGs). Anesthetic agents used today are volatile halogenated ethers and the common carrier gas nitrous oxide known to be aggressive GHGs. With less than 5% of the total delivered halogenated anesthetic being metabolized by the patient, the vast majority of the anesthetic is routinely vented to the atmosphere through the operating room scavenging system. The global warming potential (GWP) of a halogenated anesthetic is up to 2,000 times greater than CO2. Global warming potentials are used to compare the strength of different GHGs to trap heat in the atmosphere relative to that of CO2. Here we discuss about the GWP of anesthetic gases, preventive measures to decrease the global warming effects of anesthetic gases and Xenon, a newer anesthetic gas for the future of anesthesia. PMID:25885293

  15. Climatic driven variability of surface water energy potential and implications for future hydroelectricity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worman, A. L. E.; Lindstrom, G.

    2014-12-01

    An average year the production in Norway and Sweden is around 190 TWh and these two countries stand for about 70% of the hydropower energy stored in the available reservoirs of Europe. There are large challenges for the future use of this regulatory capacity with regard to balancing the electricity production in Europe under climate variability, compliance to water management plans under the Water Framework Directive and to the shifts to more renewable, but intermittent, energy sources required by the Renewable Energy Directive. A main aim of this project is to describe the variation over time of hydrological fluxes across Scandinavia in terms of their energy properties and to link that information to climatic factors and the regulation of hydroelectricty. Along these lines we explored daily data of digitalized hydro-climatological data from 1961, which were used to calibrate the HBV-model for 1001 watersheds in Sweden and the energy potential has been estimated as an average for that period (Figure below). These tentative results show that the surface water energy potential constitutes about one per mille of the latent heat flux due to evapotranspiration and it is, therefore, very sensitive to any fluctuation in the energy quantities of the hydrometeorological system. Tentative analysis suggests that the energy availability of surface water in Sweden exhibits significant decadal long fluctuations from 115 TWh/year up to 180 TWh/year, which follow several different time scales and periodicities, ranging from century-long trends to fluctuations occurring on time scales of a decade and shorter. In addition, recent investigations show that land-use changes and hydropower regulation has caused significant changes in the annual runoff periodicity in Swedish rivers during the 20th century. Those changes in the annual periodicities are caused by structural alterations in river basins affected by intense agriculture and hydropower regulation.

  16. The Future Potential of Brazilian Sugarcane Ethanol with respect to Land Availability and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, D.; Miguez, F.; Bollero, G.; Long, S.

    2014-12-01

    Expanding sugarcane production on the 65.9 mha area identified by Brazilian government can provide a sustainable and low carbon intensive supply of liquid fuel to the world. However, such expansion is also subject to long-term climate changes. Variation in sugarcane yield at policy-relevant spatial and temporal scales can greatly influence the long-term potential of Brazilian. A process-based crop model (BioCro) is parameterized and calibrated for leaf photosynthesis and field productivity. Multi-site validation against observed stem yield of sugarcane cultivar RB72454 suggests that model can predict consistent yield (observed = 0.92 × predicted; R2 = 0.65) over a wide range of soil and environmental conditions in Brazil. Regional simulations based on national soil data and reanalysis climate data suggest that 1.938 petagram (Pg) of stem dry biomass can be harvested annually. Increasing temperature and [CO2] can partially compensate for yield decline due to reduced rainfall in future, by means of greater water use efficiency and rate of photosynthesis. Simulations using five GCMs climate data suggest that average productivity of harvested stem dry biomass may decline from 1.938 Pg year-1 to 1.544 Pg year-1 (1.243-2.066 Pg year-1) by 2045 in the absence of improved cultivars.

  17. Geologic evolution of the Jemez Mountains and their potential for future volcanic activity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burton, B.W.

    1982-01-01

    Geophysical and geochemical data and the geologic history of the Rio Grande rift and the vicinity of the Jemez Mountains are summarized to determine the probability of future volcanic activity in the Los Alamos, New Mexico area. The apparent cyclic nature of volcanism in the Jemez Mountains may be related to intermittent thermal inputs into the volcanic system beneath the region. The Jemez lineament, an alignment of late Cenozoic volcanic centers that crosses the rift near Los Alamos, has played an important role in the volcanic evolution of the Jemez Mountains. Geophysical data suggest that there is no active shallow magma body beneath the Valles caldera, though magma probably exists at about 15 km beneath this portion of the rift. The rate of volcanism in the Jemez Mountains during the last 10 million years has been 5 x 10/sup -9//km/sup 2//y. Lava or ash flows overriding Laboratory radioactive waste disposal sites would have little potential to release radionuclides to the environment. The probability of a new volcano intruding close enough to a radioactive waste disposal site to effect radionuclide release is 2 x 10/sup -7//y.

  18. Geologic evolution of the Jemez Mountains and their potential for future volcanic activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geophysical and geochemical data and the geologic history of the Rio Grande rift and the vicinity of the Jemez Mountains are summarized to determine the probability of future volcanic activity in the Los Alamos, New Mexico area. The apparent cyclic nature of volcanism in the Jemez Mountains may be related to intermittent thermal inputs into the volcanic system beneath the region. The Jemez lineament, an alignment of late Cenozoic volcanic centers that crosses the rift near Los Alamos, has played an important role in the volcanic evolution of the Jemez Mountains. Geophysical data suggest that there is no active shallow magma body beneath the Valles caldera, though magma probably exists at about 15 km beneath this portion of the rift. The rate of volcanism in the Jemez Mountains during the last 10 million years has been 5 x 10-9/km2/y. Lava or ash flows overriding Laboratory radioactive waste disposal sites would have little potential to release radionuclides to the environment. The probability of a new volcano intruding close enough to a radioactive waste disposal site to effect radionuclide release is 2 x 10-7/y

  19. Phosphorus recovery from wastewater--expert survey on present use and future potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sartorius, Christan; von Horn, Jana; Tettenborn, Felix

    2012-04-01

    Today, a variety of different approaches to the recovery of phosphorus from wastewater, sludge, and sludge ash exist. These approaches differ basically by the origin of the used matter (wastewater, sludge liquor, fermented or nonfermented sludge ash) and the process (precipitation, wet-chemical extraction, and thermal treatment). To rate them according to their characteristics, the latter were phrased as hypotheses and subjected to an international expert survey. The survey showed that phosphorus recovery is expected to become an established process over the next 20 years in industrialized countries for economic reasons. A decisive aspect in this regard will be the quality of the produced fertilizer. Simple technologies such as the recovery from sludge liquor seem to be preferred. If sludge is incinerated, phosphorus recycling from ash then becomes more interesting and has to be considered. Phosphorus recovery and source-separating sanitation technologies are more appropriate for industrialized countries than for developing countries. Because the growing awareness of environmental issues will prevent sludge from being used agriculturally in an increasing number of countries in the next decade, the market potential for nutrient recovery technologies will increase in the immediate future. PMID:22834219

  20. The 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lourenço, José; Recker, Mario

    2014-08-01

    Dengue, a vector-borne viral disease of increasing global importance, is classically associated with tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Urbanisation, globalisation and climate trends, however, are facilitating the geographic spread of its mosquito vectors, thereby increasing the risk of the virus establishing itself in previously unaffected areas and causing large-scale epidemics. On 3 October 2012, two autochthonous dengue infections were reported within the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal. During the following seven months, this first 'European' dengue outbreak caused more than 2000 local cases and 81 exported cases to mainland Europe. Here, using an ento-epidemiological mathematical framework, we estimate that the introduction of dengue to Madeira occurred around a month before the first official cases, during the period of maximum influx of airline travel, and that the naturally declining temperatures of autumn were the determining factor for the outbreak's demise in early December 2012. Using key estimates, together with local climate data, we further propose that there is little support for dengue endemicity on this island, but a high potential for future epidemic outbreaks when seeded between May and August-a period when detection of imported cases is crucial for Madeira's public health planning. PMID:25144749

  1. The 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Lourenço

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Dengue, a vector-borne viral disease of increasing global importance, is classically associated with tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Urbanisation, globalisation and climate trends, however, are facilitating the geographic spread of its mosquito vectors, thereby increasing the risk of the virus establishing itself in previously unaffected areas and causing large-scale epidemics. On 3 October 2012, two autochthonous dengue infections were reported within the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal. During the following seven months, this first 'European' dengue outbreak caused more than 2000 local cases and 81 exported cases to mainland Europe. Here, using an ento-epidemiological mathematical framework, we estimate that the introduction of dengue to Madeira occurred around a month before the first official cases, during the period of maximum influx of airline travel, and that the naturally declining temperatures of autumn were the determining factor for the outbreak's demise in early December 2012. Using key estimates, together with local climate data, we further propose that there is little support for dengue endemicity on this island, but a high potential for future epidemic outbreaks when seeded between May and August-a period when detection of imported cases is crucial for Madeira's public health planning.

  2. Floating Offshore Wind in Oregon: Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts from Two Future Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jimenez, Tony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tegen, Suzanne [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Speer, Bethany [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-05-01

    Construction of the first offshore wind power plant in the United States began in 2015, off the coast of Rhode Island, using fixed platform structures that are appropriate for shallow seafloors, like those located off of the East Coast and mid-Atlantic. However, floating platforms, which have yet to be deployed commercially, will likely need to anchor to the deeper seafloor if deployed off of the West Coast. To analyze the employment and economic potential for floating offshore wind along the West Coast, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to analyze two hypothetical, large-scale deployment scenarios for Oregon: 5,500 megawatts (MW) of offshore wind deployment in Oregon by 2050 (Scenario A), and 2,900 MW of offshore wind by 2050 (Scenario B). These levels of deployment could power approximately 1,600,000 homes (Scenario A) or 870,000 homes (Scenario B). Offshore wind would contribute to economic development in Oregon in the near future, and more substantially in the long term, especially if equipment and labor are sourced from within the state. According to the analysis, over the 2020-2050 period, Oregon floating offshore wind facilities could support 65,000-97,000 job-years and add $6.8 billion-$9.9 billion to the state GDP (Scenario A).

  3. Applying quantitative structure–activity relationship approaches to nanotoxicology: Current status and future potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The potential (eco)toxicological hazard posed by engineered nanoparticles is a major scientific and societal concern since several industrial sectors (e.g. electronics, biomedicine, and cosmetics) are exploiting the innovative properties of nanostructures resulting in their large-scale production. Many consumer products contain nanomaterials and, given their complex life-cycle, it is essential to anticipate their (eco)toxicological properties in a fast and inexpensive way in order to mitigate adverse effects on human health and the environment. In this context, the application of the structure–toxicity paradigm to nanomaterials represents a promising approach. Indeed, according to this paradigm, it is possible to predict toxicological effects induced by chemicals on the basis of their structural similarity with chemicals for which toxicological endpoints have been previously measured. These structure–toxicity relationships can be quantitative or qualitative in nature and they can predict toxicological effects directly from the physicochemical properties of the entities (e.g. nanoparticles) of interest. Therefore, this approach can aid in prioritizing resources in toxicological investigations while reducing the ethical and monetary costs that are related to animal testing. The purpose of this review is to provide a summary of recent key advances in the field of QSAR modelling of nanomaterial toxicity, to identify the major gaps in research required to accelerate the use of quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) methods, and to provide a roadmap for future research needed to achieve QSAR models useful for regulatory purposes

  4. The changing ozone depletion potential of N2O in a future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revell, L. E.; Tummon, F.; Salawitch, R. J.; Stenke, A.; Peter, T.

    2015-11-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O), which decomposes in the stratosphere to form nitrogen oxides (NOx), is currently the dominant anthropogenic ozone-depleting substance emitted. Ozone depletion potentials (ODPs) of specific compounds, commonly evaluated for present-day conditions, were developed for long-lived halocarbons and are used by policymakers to inform decision-making around protection of the ozone layer. However, the effect of N2O on ozone will evolve in the future due to changes in stratospheric dynamics and chemistry induced by rising levels of greenhouse gases. Despite the fact that NOx-induced ozone loss slows with increasing concentrations of CO2 and CH4, we show that ODPN2O for year 2100 varies under different scenarios and is mostly larger than ODPN2O for year 2000. This occurs because the traditional ODP approach is tied to ozone depletion induced by CFC-11, which is also sensitive to CO2 and CH4. We therefore suggest that a single ODP for N2O is of limited use.

  5. Applying quantitative structure-activity relationship approaches to nanotoxicology: current status and future potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, David A; Mombelli, Enrico; Pietroiusti, Antonio; Tran, Lang; Worth, Andrew; Fadeel, Bengt; McCall, Maxine J

    2013-11-01

    The potential (eco)toxicological hazard posed by engineered nanoparticles is a major scientific and societal concern since several industrial sectors (e.g. electronics, biomedicine, and cosmetics) are exploiting the innovative properties of nanostructures resulting in their large-scale production. Many consumer products contain nanomaterials and, given their complex life-cycle, it is essential to anticipate their (eco)toxicological properties in a fast and inexpensive way in order to mitigate adverse effects on human health and the environment. In this context, the application of the structure-toxicity paradigm to nanomaterials represents a promising approach. Indeed, according to this paradigm, it is possible to predict toxicological effects induced by chemicals on the basis of their structural similarity with chemicals for which toxicological endpoints have been previously measured. These structure-toxicity relationships can be quantitative or qualitative in nature and they can predict toxicological effects directly from the physicochemical properties of the entities (e.g. nanoparticles) of interest. Therefore, this approach can aid in prioritizing resources in toxicological investigations while reducing the ethical and monetary costs that are related to animal testing. The purpose of this review is to provide a summary of recent key advances in the field of QSAR modelling of nanomaterial toxicity, to identify the major gaps in research required to accelerate the use of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) methods, and to provide a roadmap for future research needed to achieve QSAR models useful for regulatory purposes. PMID:23165187

  6. Cost outlook for the production of biofuels. A cost comparison assessment of the future production of biofuels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ragettli, M.

    2007-02-15

    In this diploma thesis by Martin Ragettli a cost comparison assessment of the future production of biofuels is presented. The author states that biofuels can make a contribution to the reduction of the effects of fossil fuel depletion and regional and global environmental problems, as well as providing security of supply. The status of biofuels in the context of sustainability efforts and the use of renewable forms of energy are discussed as are the potential and costs of biomass-based energy supply. Various types of biomass for the production of biofuels are reviewed, as are production technologies. The global potential of biomass supplies is examined. The methodology applied and the system components examined are discussed and a regional approach is reviewed. Recommendations for further research are made.

  7. The Application of Isotope Techniques in Nutrient Assessment and Management in Riverine Systems. Present and Future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A variety of sources contribute to nutrients in rivers and nutrients may subsequently take various pathways and undergo different transformation processes. We first review representative types of isotopes and the roles of isotope techniques that have been or could be used for nutrient assessment and management. We then present technical, financial and logistical matters to be considered in selecting appropriate isotope techniques for nutrient assessment and management. Lastly we propose several approaches on the application of isotope techniques to make more effective the studies and management of nutrients in rivers in the near future. (author)

  8. Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Can

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report documents the future human actions (FHA) considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Can. The purpose of this report is to provide an account of: General considerations concerning FHA; The methodology applied in SR-Can to assess FHA; The aspects of FHA that need to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository; and The selection of representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis

  9. Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Can

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moren, Lena

    2006-10-15

    This report documents the future human actions (FHA) considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Can. The purpose of this report is to provide an account of: General considerations concerning FHA; The methodology applied in SR-Can to assess FHA; The aspects of FHA that need to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository; and The selection of representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis.

  10. Integrated assessment of future land use in Brazil under increasing demand for bioenergy

    OpenAIRE

    Verstegen, Judith; van der Hilst, Floortje; Karssenberg, Derek; Faaij, André

    2014-01-01

    Environmental impacts of a future increase in demand for bioenergydepend on the magnitude, location and pattern of the direct and indirectland use change of energy cropland expansion. Here we aim at 1)projecting the spatiotemporal pattern of sugar cane expansion and theeffect on other land uses in Brazil towards 2030, and 2) assessing theuncertainty herein. For the spatio-temporal projection, four modelcomponents are used: 1) an initial land use map that shows the initialamount and location o...

  11. Making Development Sustainable: The Future of Disaster Risk Management, Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction

    OpenAIRE

    Desai, B; Maskrey, A.; Peduzzi, Pascal; De Bono, Andréa; Herold, Christian

    2015-01-01

    The 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR15), Making Development Sustainable: The Future of Disaster Risk Management, is the fourth in the series coordinated by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) in the context of the Hyogo Frame - work for Action 2005-2015: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters (HFA). This report includes new results regarding the identification of disaster risk. It features a new global characteri...

  12. ASSESSMENT OF STUDENTS’ PROFESSIONAL COMPETENCIES – THE FUTURE TEACHERS OF MATHEMATICS

    OpenAIRE

    Mariya B. Shashkina; Ekaterina A. Ayoshina

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the investigation is to describe the authors’ approach to the assessment of the professional competence of the future teacher of mathematics.Methods. The methods involve comparative analysis of the Professional Standard of the teacher and the Federal State Educational Standards in teacher education, as well as the method of predictive analysis of modern educational situation.Results. Qualimetric approach to the structuring of the professional competencies of students is described; ...

  13. MEDIA ENVIRONMENT AS FACTOR OF REALIZATION OF CREATIVE POTENTIAL OF FUTURE TEACHERS` IN THE MOUNTAIN SCHOOLS OF THE UKRAINIAN CARPATHIANS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alla Lebedieva

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The article shows up “media environment” as a factor of future teachers` creative potential realization in the mountainous schools of the Ukrainian Carpathians. The problem of using media environment as a factor of future teachers` creative potential in the mountainous schools of the Ukrainian Carpathians and the ways of its optimization is the main point of this research. Highlights ways to modernize social and professional orientation training of students in the creative process of nature is situates in information education and educational environment of high school. We consider the causal link use media environment as a factor of future teachers` creative potential and complexity of the teacher in the mountainous schools of the Ukrainian Carpathians. The basic function of the media environment are extensity, instrumental, communicative, interactive, multimedia. Reveals some aspects of training students to creatively active teaching process we describe subjects with objective possibilities in the formation of professional skills of future teachers` and which directly affect the realization of creative potential – “Ukrainian folk art”, “Basic recitation and rhetoric”, “The basis of pedagogical creativity”. The necessity of creating a full-fledged media environment in higher education is important condition of successful education as an important factor that allows the efficiency of the creative potential of future teachers` in the mountainous schools of the Ukrainian Carpathians.

  14. Acid mine drainage in Australia: its extent and potential future liability. Supervising Scientist Report 125

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to better understand the impact of acid drainage in Australia and to provide a basis for assessing long-term management options, the Office of the Supervising Scientist (OSS) and the Australian Centre for Minesite Rehabilitation Research (ACMRR) initiated this study to prepare a status report on acid mine drainage in Australia. The study is supported by the Minerals Council of Australia. The coverage of this study includes all mine sites where sulphidic oxidation in mine wastes or mine workings leads to the release of contaminated drainage with off-site impacts. The objectives of the study were: 1. to quantify and characterise the generation of contaminated drainage by sulphidic oxidation from historic and current mining activities in Australia; 2. to develop a classification scheme to characterise the potential for off-site impacts from sulphidic oxidation in mine wastes; 3. to compare the cost at the national level of managing sulphidic oxidation in mine wastes and any resulting contaminated drainage with other mining and environmental costs; 4. to make recommendations based on the information received to improve the understanding and management of acid mine drainage in Australia. Information was collected on the extent and management of sulphidic oxidation and acid drainage at operating, historic and derelict mines in Australia. Mining operators, environmental officers, industry representatives, state government departments and others were asked about their experience with acid mine drainage and how it is currently managed at operating and historic mine sites. Based on the information collected, the additional cost of managing potentially acid generating wastes at operating mine sites is estimated to be about AUD 60 million per year. Potentially, the financial risk could be much greater if sulphide oxidation and release of pollutants is discovered after mine closure, as was the case for historic sites like Mt Lyell, Rum Jungle or Mt Morgan. The

  15. Coastal Change Potential (CPI) Assessment of Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore (slbe_shore)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A coastal change potential index (CPI) was used to map the relative change potential of the coast to future lake-level change within Sleeping Bear Dunes National...

  16. Coastal Change Potential (CPI) Assessment of Apostle Islands National Lakeshore (apis_shore)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A coastal change potential index (CPI) was used to map the relative change potential of the coast to future lake-level change within Apostle Islands National...

  17. Assessment of Rainfall-induced Landslide Potential and Spatial Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yie-Ruey; Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chen, Jing-Wen; Chiang, Jie-Lun; Hsieh, Shun-Chieh; Chue, Yung-Sheng

    2016-04-01

    Recently, due to the global climate change, most of the time the rainfall in Taiwan is of short duration but with high intensity. Due to Taiwan's steep terrain, rainfall-induced landslides often occur and lead to human causalities and properties loss. Taiwan's government has invested huge reconstruction funds to the affected areas. However, after rehabilitation they still face the risk of secondary sediment disasters. Therefore, this study assesses rainfall-induced (secondary) landslide potential and spatial distribution in watershed of Southern Taiwan under extreme climate change. The study areas in this research are Baolai and Jianshan villages in the watershed of the Laonongxi River Basin in the Southern Taiwan. This study focused on the 3 years after Typhoon Morakot (2009 to 2011). During this period, the study area experienced six heavy rainfall events including five typhoons and one heavy rainfall. The genetic adaptive neural network, texture analysis and GIS were implemented in the analysis techniques for the interpretation of satellite images and to obtain surface information and hazard log data and to analyze land use change. A multivariate hazards evaluation method was applied to quantitatively analyze the weights of various natural environmental and slope development hazard factors. Furthermore, this study established a slope landslide potential assessment model and depicted a slope landslide potential diagram by using the GIS platform. The interaction between (secondary) landslide mechanism, scale, and location was analyzed using association analysis of landslide historical data and regional environmental characteristics. The results of image classification before and after six heavy rainfall events show that the values of coefficient of agreement are at medium-high level. By multivariate hazards evaluation method, geology and the effective accumulative rainfall (EAR) are the most important factors. Slope, distance from fault, aspect, land disturbance

  18. Postglacial volcanic deposits at Mount Baker, Washington, and potential hazards from future eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyde, Jack H.; Crandell, Dwight Raymond

    1978-01-01

    Eruptions and other geologic events at Mount Baker during the last 10,000 years have repeatedly affected adjacent areas, especially the valleys that head on the south and east sides of the volcano. Small volumes of tephra were erupted at least four times during the past 10,000 years. Future eruptions like these could cause as much as 35 centimeters of tephra to be deposited at sites 17 kilometers from the volcano, 15 centimeters of tephra to be deposited 29 kilometers from the volcano, and 5 centimeters, 44 kilometers from the volcano. Lava flows were erupted at least twice during the last 10,000 years and moved down two valleys. Future lava flows will not directly endanger people because lava typically moves so slowly that escape is possible. Hot pyroclastic flows evidently occurred during only one period and were confined to the Boulder Creek valley. Such flows can move at speeds of as much as 150 kilometers per hour and can bury valley floors under tens of meters of hot rock debris for at least 15 kilometers from the volcano. large mudflows, most of which contain hydrothermally altered rock debris, originated at Mount Baker at least eight times during the last 10,000 years. The largest mudflow reached 29 kilometers or more down the valley of the Middle Fork Nooksack River, west of the volcano, about 6,000 years ago. Extensive masses of hydrothermally altered rock that are potentially unstable exist today near the summit of the volcano, especially in the Sherman Crater - Sherman Peak area. Avalanches of this material could be triggered by steam explosions, earthquakes, or eruptions, or may occur because of slow-acting forces of processes that gradually decrease stability. large avalanches could move downslope at high speed and could grade downvalley into mudflows. Floods caused by rapid melting of snow and ice by lava or by hot rock debris could affect valley floors many tens of kilometers from the volcano and could have especially severe effects if they were to

  19. Risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. Current approaches and future strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Larsen, John Christian; Meyer, Otto A.

    2010-01-01

    The risk assessment of pesticide residues in food is based on toxicological evaluation of the single compounds and no internationally accepted procedure exists for evaluation of cumulative exposure to multiple residues of pesticides in crops, except for a few groups of pesticides sharing a group...... several approaches are available for the risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. However, no single simple approach is available to judge upon potential interactions at the low doses that humans are exposed to from pesticide residues in food. In these cases, PBTK models could be useful as tools to...... assess combined tissue doses and to help predict potential interactions including thresholds for such effects. This would improve the quality of the risk assessment....

  20. Assessing relative resilience potential of coral reefs to inform management

    OpenAIRE

    Maynard, Jeffrey A; Mckagan, Steven; Raymundo, Laurie; Johnson, Steven; Ahmadia, Gabby N.; Johnston, Lyza; Houk, Peter; Williams, Gareth J.; Kendall, Matt; Heron, Scott F.; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Mcleod, Elizabeth; Tracey, Dieter; Planes, Serge

    2015-01-01

    International audience Ecological resilience assessments are an important part of resilience-based management (RBM) and can help prioritize and target management actions. Use of such assessments has been limited due to a lack of clear guidance on the assessment process. This study builds on the latest scientific advances in RBM to provide that guidance from a resilience assessment undertaken in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI). We assessed spatial variation in ecolog...

  1. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Glacier Hazards Assessment: Application to Predicting the Potential for Glacier Lake Outbursts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furfaro, R.; Kargel, J. S.; Fink, W.; Bishop, M. P.

    2010-12-01

    Glaciers and ice sheets are among the largest unstable parts of the solid Earth. Generally, glaciers are devoid of resources (other than water), are dangerous, are unstable and no infrastructure is normally built directly on their surfaces. Areas down valley from large alpine glaciers are also commonly unstable due to landslide potential of moraines, debris flows, snow avalanches, outburst floods from glacier lakes, and other dynamical alpine processes; yet there exists much development and human occupation of some disaster-prone areas. Satellite remote sensing can be extremely effective in providing cost-effective and time- critical information. Space-based imagery can be used to monitor glacier outlines and their lakes, including processes such as iceberg calving and debris accumulation, as well as changing thicknesses and flow speeds. Such images can also be used to make preliminary identifications of specific hazardous spots and allows preliminary assessment of possible modes of future disaster occurrence. Autonomous assessment of glacier conditions and their potential for hazards would present a major advance and permit systematized analysis of more data than humans can assess. This technical leap will require the design and implementation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms specifically designed to mimic glacier experts’ reasoning. Here, we introduce the theory of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) as an AI tool for predicting and assessing natural hazards in alpine glacier environments. FCM techniques are employed to represent expert knowledge of glaciers physical processes. A cognitive model embedded in a fuzzy logic framework is constructed via the synergistic interaction between glaciologists and AI experts. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed AI methodology as applied to predicting hazards in glacier environments, we designed and implemented a FCM that addresses the challenging problem of autonomously assessing the Glacier Lake Outburst Flow

  2. Critical thinking: assessing the risks to the future security of supply of critical metals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunn, Gus

    2015-04-01

    Increasing world population, the spread of prosperity across the globe and the demands of new technologies have led to a revival of concerns about the availability of raw materials needed by society. Despite scare stories about resource depletion, physical exhaustion of minerals is considered to be unlikely. However, we do need to know which materials might be of concern so that we can develop strategies to secure adequate supplies and to mitigate the effects of supply disruption. This requirement has led to renewed interest in criticality, a term that is generally used to refer to metals and minerals of high economic importance that have a relatively high likelihood of supply disruption. The European Union (EU) developed a quantitative methodology for the assessment of criticality which led to the definition of 14 raw materials as critical to the EU economy (EC, 2010). This has succeeded in raising awareness of potential supply issues and in helping to prioritise requirements for new policies and supporting research. The EU has recently assessed a larger number of candidate materials of which 20 are now identified as critical to the EU (EC, 2014). These include metals such as indium, mostly used in flat-screen displays, antimony for flame retardants and cobalt for rechargeable batteries, alloys and a host of other products. Although there is no consensus on the methodology for criticality assessments and broad analyses at this scale are inevitably imperfect, they can, nevertheless, provide early warning of supply problems. However, in order to develop more rigorous and dynamic assessments of future availability detailed analysis of the whole life-cycle of individual metals to identify specific problems and develop appropriate solutions is required. New policies, such as the Raw Materials Initiative (2008) and the European Innovation Partnership on Raw Materials (2013), have been developed by the European Commission (EC) and are aimed at securing sustainable

  3. Assessing atmospheric bias correction for dynamical consistency using potential vorticity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correcting biases in atmospheric variables prior to impact studies or dynamical downscaling can lead to new biases as dynamical consistency between the ‘corrected’ fields is not maintained. Use of these bias corrected fields for subsequent impact studies and dynamical downscaling provides input conditions that do not appropriately represent intervariable relationships in atmospheric fields. Here we investigate the consequences of the lack of dynamical consistency in bias correction using a measure of model consistency—the potential vorticity (PV). This paper presents an assessment of the biases present in PV using two alternative correction techniques—an approach where bias correction is performed individually on each atmospheric variable, thereby ignoring the physical relationships that exists between the multiple variables that are corrected, and a second approach where bias correction is performed directly on the PV field, thereby keeping the system dynamically coherent throughout the correction process. In this paper we show that bias correcting variables independently results in increased errors above the tropopause in the mean and standard deviation of the PV field, which are improved when using the alternative proposed. Furthermore, patterns of spatial variability are improved over nearly all vertical levels when applying the alternative approach. Results point to a need for a dynamically consistent atmospheric bias correction technique which results in fields that can be used as dynamically consistent lateral boundaries in follow-up downscaling applications. (letter)

  4. An assessment of the potential of the free electron laser

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A review is presented of the theoretical and experimental results which have been obtained to assess the potential of a Free Electron Laser (FEL) and to estimate the electron beam requirements with regard to energy, current and emittance. It is shown that with a FEL it is possible to obtain a radiation source which can be continuously tuned over a wide range from the far infra-red to the U-V, by varying the electron beam energy over a range approximately 1-250 MeV. The electron beam is required to be of high quality with very small energy spread and small transverse emittance. With presently developed electron beam sources of suitable quality, the conversion efficiency limits the output power to a mean of a few watts and a peak of the order of tens of kilo-watts. To obtain high output power requires the development of high current electron beam sources with high beam quality. The required beam quality is dependent on the magnet design and so further development is also required of high periodicity transverse field magnets with uniform transverse field across the magnet aperture. The spread in the electron distribution resulting from the dynamics in the FEL would appear to prevent any advantage being gained by recycling the electron beam. (U.K.)

  5. Modular power system topology assessment using Gaussian potential functions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia-Lagos, F.; Joya, G.; Sandoval, F. [Universidad de Malaga, ETSI Telecomunicacion (Spain). Dpto. Tecnologia Electronica; Marin, F.J. [Universidad de Malaga, ETSI Informatica (Spain). Dpto. Electronica

    2003-09-01

    A topology assessment system for power systems using active power measurements as input data is presented. The method is designed to be incorporated into a state estimator working with a bus-branch orientated network model. The system architecture contains two states: (i) the preprocessing state; and (ii) the classification stage. The preprocessing stage transforms each current measurement set to produce a vector in the [0.1]{sup n} space. This stage produces clusters of very similar preprocessing output vectors for each grid topology. The classification stage consists in a layer of Gaussian potential units with Mahalanobis distance, and classifies the preprocessing output vectors to identify the actual topology. The main features of this method are: (i) local topology identification; (ii) linear growth of the complexity with the power system size; (iii) correction of multiple errors; and (iv) insensitivity to bad data. Tests have been carried out using the IEEE 14, 30, 57, 118 and 300 standard networks and different topological and measurement configurations. These tests have demonstrated the successful application of the technique. (Author)

  6. Methodology for assessing thioarsenic formation potential in sulfidic landfill environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jianye; Kim, Hwidong; Townsend, Timothy

    2014-07-01

    Arsenic leaching and speciation in landfills, especially those with arsenic bearing waste and drywall disposal (such as construction and demolition (C&D) debris landfills), may be affected by high levels of sulfide through the formation of thioarsenic anions. A methodology using ion chromatography (IC) with a conductivity detector was developed for the assessment of thioarsenic formation potential in sulfidic landfill environments. Monothioarsenate (H2AsSO3(-)) and dithioarsenate (H2AsS2O2(-)) were confirmed in the IC fractions of thioarsenate synthesis mixture, consistent with previous literature results. However, the observation of AsSx(-) (x=5-8) in the supposed trithioarsenate (H2AsS3O(-)) and tetrathioarsenate (H2AsS4(-)) IC fractions suggested the presence of new arsenic polysulfide complexes. All thioarsenate anions, particularly trithioarsenate and tetrathioarsenate, were unstable upon air exposure. The method developed for thioarsenate analysis was validated and successfully used to analyze several landfill leachate samples. Thioarsenate anions were detected in the leachate of all of the C&D debris landfills tested, which accounted for approximately 8.5% of the total aqueous As in the leachate. Compared to arsenite or arsenate, thioarsenates have been reported in literature to have lower adsorption on iron oxide minerals. The presence of thioarsenates in C&D debris landfill leachate poses new concerns when evaluating the impact of arsenic mobilization in such environments. PMID:24508155

  7. Evaluating Cloud and Precipitation Processes in Numerical Models using Current and Potential Future Satellite Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Heever, S. C.; Tao, W. K.; Skofronick Jackson, G.; Tanelli, S.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Petersen, W. A.; Kummerow, C. D.

    2015-12-01

    Cloud, aerosol and precipitation processes play a fundamental role in the water and energy cycle. It is critical to accurately represent these microphysical processes in numerical models if we are to better predict cloud and precipitation properties on weather through climate timescales. Much has been learned about cloud properties and precipitation characteristics from NASA satellite missions such as TRMM, CloudSat, and more recently GPM. Furthermore, data from these missions have been successfully utilized in evaluating the microphysical schemes in cloud-resolving models (CRMs) and global models. However, there are still many uncertainties associated with these microphysics schemes. These uncertainties can be attributed, at least in part, to the fact that microphysical processes cannot be directly observed or measured, but instead have to be inferred from those cloud properties that can be measured. Evaluation of microphysical parameterizations are becoming increasingly important as enhanced computational capabilities are facilitating the use of more sophisticated schemes in CRMs, and as future global models are being run on what has traditionally been regarded as cloud-resolving scales using CRM microphysical schemes. In this talk we will demonstrate how TRMM, CloudSat and GPM data have been used to evaluate different aspects of current CRM microphysical schemes, providing examples of where these approaches have been successful. We will also highlight CRM microphysical processes that have not been well evaluated and suggest approaches for addressing such issues. Finally, we will introduce a potential NASA satellite mission, the Cloud and Precipitation Processes Mission (CAPPM), which would facilitate the development and evaluation of different microphysical-dynamical feedbacks in numerical models.

  8. Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

    2015-08-01

    Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global

  9. The clean energy future of Saskatchewan. Evaluating the potential for nuclear power in Saskatchewan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The clean energy direction of Saskatchewan is very dependent on the vision of the energy future. Saskatchewan has depended strongly on coal as a base load asset and embracing the future will depend on creating multiple pathways. This presentation will explore the pathways and the reasons why they are important.

  10. Looking Ahead: The Inclusion of Long-Term Futures in Cumulative Environmental Assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Proceeding of a workshop on the Inclusion of Long-Term Futures in Cumulative Environmental Assessments (CEA's) were presented.. Also included were three working group reports and papers presented at the conference. The issue of the concept of Cumulative Environmental Assessments was summarized, along with the current transformation to a more global outlook. The concepts and methodological questions associated with ecology and economics were tackled. CEA methods were discussed and a contrast was made with land-use planning. The importance of long-term monitoring programs was introduced and examples of early warning systems were given. Social science issues behind CEAs were also discussed. Recommendation e for preparing CEA's, the design of early warning monitoring systems, and public involvement, were made.. Contributed papers covered topics related to environmental assessment, pollution, and climate change

  11. Neural correlates of self-appraisals in the near and distant future: an event-related potential study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yangmei Luo

    Full Text Available To investigate perceptual and neural correlates of future self-appraisals as a function of temporal distance, event-related potentials (ERPs were recorded while participants (11 women, eight men made judgments about the applicability of trait adjectives to their near future selves (i.e., one month from now and their distant future selves (i.e., three years from now. Behavioral results indicated people used fewer positive adjectives, more negative adjectives, recalled more specific events coming to mind and felt more psychologically connected to the near future self than the distant future self. Electrophysiological results demonstrated that negative trait adjectives elicited more positive ERP deflections than did positive trait adjectives in the interval between 550 and 800 ms (late positive component within the near future self condition. However, within the same interval, there were no significant differences between negative and positive traits adjectives in the distant future self condition. The results suggest that negative emotional processing in future self-appraisals is modulated by temporal distance, consistent with predictions of construal level theory.

  12. Corporate marketing potential assessment model in the context of operational, tactical and strategic levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.V. Potrashkova

    2013-12-01

    description; by set of predetermined managerial decisions; by description of parameters of the outer environment; as factors of corporate marketing potential there are considered characteristics of client-enterprise social and economic relations, that were built during previous periods of time; these characteristics include client expectations for products quality and corporate servicing; corporate marketing potential is considered in close interrelation with other components of the aggregate corporate potential (it is presumed that together with the production potential it determines possible volumes of financial inflows and the volume of corporate income from operational activity. Conclusions and directions of further researches. The proposed system of models is intended for acquiring result-oriented assessment of corporate marketing potential in the form of set of possible variants of products sales for different states of corporate environment and different variants of operational, tactical and strategic management of corporate marketing resources. The structure of models which are described in this work reflects the relation of corporate marketing activity results in short, medium and long-term periods of time with the main characteristics of corporate marketing resources, characteristics of corporate social and economic relations with clients, factors of the outer environment and different parameters of the resource management. The future research on this topic should be targeted at the disclosure of the specific analytical form of interrelations of the result-oriented indicators of corporate marketing activity with internal and external factors.

  13. Assessment and evaluation of geothermal potential in Switzerland; Atlas des ressources geothermiques suisses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andenmatten-Berthoud, N. [Geowatt AG, Zuerich (Switzerland); Kohl, T. [Eidgenossische Technische Hochschule (ETH), Institut de Geophysique, Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2003-07-01

    This report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy presents the first part of a project that aims at assessing the geothermal energy potential of Switzerland's underground. Due to the presence of the Alps the Swiss underground is highly heterogeneous with numerous geologic faults. Geothermal energy assessment has to be carried out region after region. The first steps consisted in collecting existing geological and hydrogeological data and finding out the best appropriate methodology. Analysis was restricted to the Northwest of Switzerland (Basle-Zurich area), which has a dense population - an important factor for future applications - and is better known than others, thanks to previous studies performed in conjunction with site pre-selection for future radioactive waste disposal facilities. In this area, sandstones and limestones are found on the crystalline bottom rock. Mathematical models and computer codes were developed for interpolation and extrapolation of local and regional data. Three dimensional finite-element techniques were used. The results are presented in diagrams and maps.

  14. National and regional generation of municipal residue biomass and the future potential for waste-to-energy implementation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Municipal residue biomass (MRB) in the municipal solid waste (MSW) stream is a potential year-round bioenergy feedstock. A method is developed to estimate the amount of residue biomass generated by the end-user at the scale of a country using a throughput approach. Given the trade balance of food and forestry products, the amount of MRB generated is calculated by estimating product lifetimes, discard rates, rates of access to MSW collection services, and biomass recovery rates. A wet tonne of MRB could be converted into about 8 GJ of energy and 640 kg of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, or buried in a landfill where it would decompose into 1800 kg of CO2 equivalent (in terms of global warming potential) methane (CH4) and CO2 emissions. It is estimated that approximately 1.5 Gt y-1 of MRB are currently collected worldwide. The energy content of this biomass is approximately 12 EJ, but only a fraction is currently utilized. An integrated assessment model is used to project future MRB generation and its utilization for energy, with and without a hypothetical climate policy to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Given an anticipated price for biomass energy (and carbon under a policy scenario), by the end of the century, it is projected that nearly 60% of global MRB would be converted to about 8 EJ y-1 of energy in a reference scenario, and nearly all of global MRB would be converted into 16 EJ y-1 of energy by the end of the century under a climate policy scenario. (author)

  15. Innovation in technology-enhanced assessment in the UK and the USA: future scenarios and critical considerations

    OpenAIRE

    C. Perrotta

    2014-01-01

    This paper uses methods derived from the field of futures studies to explore the future of technology-enhanced assessment. Drawing on interviews and consultation activities with experts, the paper aims to discuss the conditions that can impede or foster ‘innovation’ in assessment and education more broadly. Through a review of relevant research, the paper suggests an interpretive model of the factors sustaining the conservatism of educational assessment: the utilitarian view of education, dom...

  16. Genetic diversity and population structure of endangered Aquilaria malaccensis revealed potential for future conservation

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Pradeep Singh; Akshay Nag; Rajni Parmar; Sneha Ghosh; Brijmohan Singh Bhau; Ram Kumar Sharma

    2015-12-01

    The endangered Aquilaria malaccensis, is an important plant with high economic values. Characterization of genetic diversity and population structure is receiving tremendous attention for effective conservation of genetic resources. Considering important repositories of biological diversity, the genetic relationships of 127 A. malaccensis accessions from 10 home gardens of three states of northeast India were assessed using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP). Of the 1153 fragments amplified with four AFLP primer combinations, 916 (79.4%) were found to be polymorphic. Polymorphic information content (PIC) and marker index (MI) of each primer combination correlate significantly with the number of genotypes resolved. Overall, a high genetic diversity (avg. 71.85%) was recorded. Further, high gene flow (m : 3.37), low genetic differentiation (ST : 0.069) and high within population genetic variation (93%) suggests that most of the genetic diversity is restricted within population. Neighbour joining (NJ), principal coordinate analysis (PCoA) and Bayesian-based STRUCTURE grouped all the accessions in two clusters with significant intermixing between populations, therefore, revealed that two genetically distinct gene pools are operating in the A. malaccensis populations cultivated in home gardens. Based on the various diversity inferences, five diverse populations (JOH, FN, HLF, DHM and ITN) were identified, which can be potentially exploited to develop conservation strategies for A. malaccensis.

  17. Integrated environmental assessment of future energy scenarios based on economic equilibrium models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The future evolution of energy supply technologies strongly depends on (and affects) the economic and environmental systems, due to the high dependency of this sector on the availability and cost of fossil fuels, especially on the small regional scale. This paper aims at presenting the modeling system and preliminary results of a research project conducted on the scale of Luxembourg to assess the environmental impact of future energy scenarios for the country, integrating outputs from partial and computable general equilibrium models within hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) frameworks. The general equilibrium model for Luxembourg, LUXGEM, is used to evaluate the economic impacts of policy decisions and other economic shocks over the time horizon 2006-2030. A techno-economic (partial equilibrium) model for Luxembourg, ETEM, is used instead to compute operation levels of various technologies to meet the demand for energy services at the least cost along the same timeline. The future energy demand and supply are made consistent by coupling ETEM with LUXGEM so as to have the same macro-economic variables and energy shares driving both models. The coupling results are then implemented within a set of Environmentally-Extended Input-Output (EE-IO) models in historical time series to test the feasibility of the integrated framework and then to assess the environmental impacts of the country. Accordingly, a dis-aggregated energy sector was built with the different ETEM technologies in the EE-IO to allow hybridization with Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and enrich the process detail. The results show that the environmental impact slightly decreased overall from 2006 to 2009. Most of the impacts come from some imported commodities (natural gas, used to produce electricity, and metalliferous ores and metal scrap). The main energy production technology is the combined-cycle gas turbine plant 'Twinerg', representing almost 80% of the domestic electricity production in Luxembourg

  18. A coupled Bayesian and fault tree methodology to assess future groundwater conditions in light of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Huang

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Maintaining acceptable groundwater levels, particularly in arid areas, while protecting ecosystems, are key measures against desertification. Due to complicated hydrological processes and their inherent uncertainties, investigations of groundwater recharge conditions are challenging, particularly in arid areas under climate changing conditions. To assist planning to protect against desertification, a fault tree methodology, in conjunction with fuzzy logic and Bayesian data mining, are applied to Minqin Oasis, a highly vulnerable regime in northern China. A set of risk factors is employed within the fault tree framework, with fuzzy logic translating qualitative risk data into probabilities. Bayesian data mining is used to quantify the contribution of each risk factor to the final aggregated risk. The implications of both historical and future climate trends are employed for temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET to assess water table changes under various future scenarios. The findings indicate that water table levels will continue to drop at the rate of 0.6 m yr−1 in the future when climatic effects alone are considered, if agricultural and industrial production capacity remain at 2004 levels.

  19. Beyond integrated safeguards: Performance-based assessments for future nuclear controls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the future, if the nuclear nonproliferation and arms control agendas are to advance, they will likely become increasingly seen as parallel undertakings with the objective of comprehensive cradle-to-grave controls over nuclear materials and possibly even warheads removed from defense programs along with materials in civilian use. This 'back to the future' prospect was envisioned in the Acheson-Lillienthal Report and the Baruch Plan, and more modestly in the Atoms-for-Peace Proposal. Unlike the grand plans of the early nuclear years, today's and tomorrow's undertakings will more likely consist of a series of incremental steps with the goal of expanding nuclear controls. These steps will be undertaken at a time of fundamental change in the IAEA safeguards system, and they will be influenced by those changes in profound ways. This prospective influence needs to be taken into account as the IAEA develops and implements integrated safeguards, including its efforts to establish new safeguards criteria, undertake technological and administrative improvements in safeguards, implement credible capabilities for the detection of undeclared nuclear facilities and activities and, perhaps, provide for a more intensive involvement in applying safeguards in new roles such as the verification of a fissile materials cutoff treaty. Performance-based approaches offer one promising way to assess and characterize the effectiveness of integrated safeguards and to provide a common means of assessing the other key areas of a comprehensive approach to nuclear controls as these develop independently and to the extent that they are coordinated in the future. (author)

  20. Science Education Futures: "Great Potential. Could Do Better. Needs to Try Harder"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubusson, Peter; Panizzon, Debra; Corrigan, Deborah

    2016-04-01

    Reviews of science education consistently suggest that there is (another) crisis. They express concern with the status quo and suggest directions that science education might take. In this context, science educators need to consider the current state of play, the needs of generations in a world to come and the characteristics of future science education. The research reported in this paper uses a futures methodology informed by the Delphi technique and scenario thinking. Four science education futures scenarios were constructed over an extended period of consultation. These were particularly influenced by discussion arising from an Australasian Science Education Research Association (ASERA) forum on science education futures. They were presented to a panel of ASERA professors to stimulate consideration of and commentary on the future of science education. The focus in interviews was on identifying and discussing elements of the scenarios that were desirable and likely. Analysis of data indicates divergence on some features of the future and compromise on others. This paper presents the scenarios and findings from interviews with the panel. We highlight key prospects for science education and propose areas for development if we are to produce a future that is designed rather than merely a compromise that arises by default.

  1. Planning for sustainable tourism in southern Pulau Banggi: an assessment of biophysical conditions and their implications for future tourism development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teh, Lydia; Cabanban, Annadel S

    2007-12-01

    A priori assessments of a site's biophysical and socio-economic capacity for accommodating tourism are less common than tourism impact studies. A priori evaluations can provide a contextual understanding of ecological, economic and socio-cultural forces, which shape the prospects for sustainable tourism development at the host destination, and can avert adverse impacts of tourism. We conduct an a priori assessment of the biophysical environment of Pulau Banggi, in the Malaysian state of Sabah for sustainable tourism development. We characterise baseline conditions of the island's marine biodiversity, seasonality, and infrastructure. We then evaluate how existing biophysical conditions will influence options for sustainable tourism development. In particular, we suggest conditions, if there are any, which constitute a limit to future tourism development in terms of compatibility for recreation and resilience to visitor impacts. We find that the biggest constraint is the lack of adequate water and sanitation infrastructure. Blast fishing, although occurring less than once per hour, can potentially destroy the major attraction for tourists. We conclude that while Pulau Banggi possesses natural qualities that are attractive for ecotourism, financial and institutional support must be made available to provide facilities and services that will enable local participation in environmental protection and enhance prospects for future sustainable tourism. PMID:17204361

  2. The future of satellite remote sensing: A worldwide assessment and prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spann, G. W.

    1984-01-01

    A frame-work in which to assess and predict the future prospects for satellite remote sensing markets is provided. The scope of the analysis is the satellite-related market for data, equipment, and services. It encompasses both domestic and international markets and contains an examination of the various market characteristics by market segment (e.g., Federal Government, State and Local Governments, Academic Organizations, Industrial Companies, and Individuals) and primary applications areas (e.g., Geology, Forestry, Land Resource Management, Agriculture and Cartography). The forecasts are derived from an analysis of both U.S. and foreign market data. The evolution and current status of U.S. and Foreign markets to arrive at market growth rates is evaluated. Circumstances and events which are likely to affect the future market development are examined. A market growth scenario is presented that is consistent with past data sales trends and takes into account the dynamic nature of the future satellite remote sensing market. Several areas of current and future business opportunities available in this market are discussed. Specific worldwide forecasts are presented in three market sectors for the period 1980 to 1990.

  3. Mitigation potential of horizontal ground coupled heat pumps for current and future climatic conditions: UK environmental modelling and monitoring studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    García González, Raquel; Verhoef, Anne; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Gan, Guohui; Wu, Yupeng; Hughes, Andrew; Mansour, Majdi; Blyth, Eleanor; Finch, Jon; Main, Bruce

    2010-05-01

    model predictions of soil moisture content and soil temperature with measurements at different GCHP locations over the UK. The combined effect of environment dynamics and horizontal GCHP technical properties on long-term GCHP performance will be assessed using a detailed land surface model (JULES: Joint UK Land Environment Simulator, Meteorological Office, UK) with additional equations embedded describing the interaction between GCHP heat exchangers and the surrounding soil. However, a number of key soil physical processes are currently not incorporated in JULES, such as groundwater flow, which, especially in lowland areas, can have an important effect on the heat flow between soil and HE. Furthermore, the interaction between HE and soil may also cause soil vapour and moisture fluxes. These will affect soil thermal conductivity and hence heat flow between the HE and the surrounding soil, which will in turn influence system performance. The project will address these issues. We propose to drive an improved version of JULES (with equations to simulate GCHP exchange embedded), with long-term gridded (1 km) atmospheric, soil and vegetation data (reflecting current and future environmental conditions) to reliably assess the mitigation potential of GCHPs over the entire domain of the UK, where uptake of GCHPs has been low traditionally. In this way we can identify areas that are most suitable for the installation of GCHPs. Only then recommendations can be made to local and regional governments, for example, on how to improve the mitigation potential in less suitable areas by adjusting GCHP configurations or design.

  4. Solar enriched methane production: Assessment of plant potentialities and applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincenzo Piemonte

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The crucial environmental issue due to fossil fuel use in our society and industries and more and more perceived by the communities is stimulating the development of innovative technologies with the scope of reducing GHGs and pollutants emissions, improving plants efficiency and exploiting renewable energy sources. The idea proposed in the present work links this context: a novel hybrid plant for the production of a mixture of methane and hydrogen (20%vol, called enriched-methane, from a steam reforming reactor whose heat duty is supplied by a concentrating solar power (CSP plant by means of a molten salt stream is here conceived, modelled and assessed. The enriched-methane mixture can be applied in methane internal combustion engines (ICE reducing CO, CO2, unburned emissions and improving engine efficiency. Moreover, the residual sensible heat of solar-heated molten salt stream can be used to generate medium-pressure steam and to produce electricity by a steam-turbine. Therefore, the plant proposed is co-generative, producing both hydrogen and electricity from a solar source. The behaviour of methane steam reforming reactor is simulated by means of a 2D mathematical model and the design of a cogenerative solar plant is proposed, evaluating its potentialities in terms of MWh of electricity produced and number of vehicles fed by enriched-methane. A single CSP module (surface requirement = 1.5 hectares coupled with a 4-tubes-and-shell shaped reactor is able to produce 686 tons/year of hydrogen, equivalent to 3.430 tons/year of 20%vol H2-CH4 mixture and 3.097 MWh/year of clean electricity.

  5. Coastal sea level variability in the eastern English Channel: Potentialities for future SWOT applicability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turki, Imen; Laignel, Benoit; Chevalier, Laetitia; Costa, Stephane

    2014-05-01

    Scientists and engineers need to understand the sea level variability in order to provide better estimates of the sea level rise for coastal defense using tide gauges and radar altimetry missions. The natural limitation of the tide gauge records is their geographical sparsity and confinement to coastlines. The future Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will be launched in 2015 over a period of 5 years and will be designated to address this issue. This research was carried out in the framework of the program Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) which is a partnership between NASA and CNES. Using a series of statistical analyses, we point to characterize the sea level variability in the eastern English Channel (western France) from four tide gauges in Dunkirk, Dieppe, Le Havre and Cherbourg for the period 1964-2012. To assess the extent to which tide gauge point observations represent tide gauge data, we compare tide gauge records to SWOT measurements in their vicinity. Results have shown that the bimodality of the sea level, provided by the distribution analysis, can be reproduced by SWOT measurements with an overestimation of both modes and also the extreme values. The rate of the linear regression was also overestimated from 1.7-4 mm/yr to 2.6-5.4 mm/yr. The continuous wavelet transform of sea level records has shown the large-scale variability of annual (1-year band) and interannual cycles (2-6- and 6-12-year bands) in sea level, which can be explained by oceanographic and hydrological factors. High frequency dynamics of the sea level variability at short time-scales were extracted from SWOT measurements. They provide a good survey of the surge events (band of 3-4 months) and the spring-neap tidal cycle (band of 28 days). Then, tide gauges should be used in conjunction with satellite data to infer the full time-scale variability. Further studies are needed to refine the SWOT applicability in coastal areas. Key words: coastal zone, sea level

  6. [Genetically modified food (food derived from biotechnology): current and future trends in public acceptance and safety assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishiura, Hiroshi; Imai, Hirohisa; Nakao, Hiroyuki; Tsukino, Hiromasa; Kuroda, Yoshiki; Katoh, Takahiko

    2002-11-01

    Current and future trends regarding genetically modified (GM) crops and food stuffs were reviewed, with a particular focus on public acceptance and safety assessment. While GM foods, foods derived from biotechnology, are popular with growers and producers, they are still a matter of some concern among consumers. In fact, our recent surveys showed that Japanese consumers had become uneasy about the potential health risks of genetically modified foods. Many Japanese consumers have only vague ideas about the actual health risks, and they appear to be making decisions simply by rejecting GM food because of non-informed doubts. Although the debate about GM foods has increased in the mass media and scientific journals, few articles concerning direct studies on the potential toxicity or adverse health effects of GM foods have appeared. The roles of relevant international regulatory bodies in ensuring that GM crops and food are safe are therefore have summarized. Finally, the current debate on use of GM crops in agriculture and future trends for development of GM foods with enriched nutrients, better functionality, and medicinal ingredients, which will be of direct benefit to the consumer, are covered. PMID:12508467

  7. Assessing the future of crop yield variability in the United States with downscaled climate projections (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobell, D. B.; Urban, D.

    2010-12-01

    One aspect of climate change of particular concern to farmers and food markets is the potential for increased year-to-year variability in crop yields. Recent episodes of food price increases following the Australian drought or Russian heat wave have heightened this concern. Downscaled climate projections that properly capture the magnitude of daily and interannual variability of weather can be useful for projecting future yield variability. Here we examine the potential magnitude and cause of changes in variability of corn yields in the United States up to 2050. Using downscaled climate projections from multiple models, we estimate a distribution of changes in mean and variability of growing season average temperature and precipitation. These projections are then fed into a model of maize yield that explicitly factors in the effect of extremely warm days. Changes in yield variability can result from a shift in mean temperatures coupled with a nonlinear crop response, a shift in climate variability, or a combination of the two. The results are decomposed into these different causes, with implications for future research to reduce uncertainties in projections of future yield variability.

  8. Benchmarking as a method of assessment of region’s intellectual potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.G. Pererva

    2015-12-01

    innovative development of regions. It is asked to assess the intellectual potential of the region using benchmarking technology. Evaluation of potential IR regions and its impact on development remains a meaningful and necessary in terms more adequate to the real practice of development of economic systems diagrams, algorithms, models and methods of analysis, forecasting and designing the future. In the recognized global market leaders the largest international image companies constantly and consistently there is an active innovative process where in parallel, as the operational policy evolutionary upgrade policy and strategic developments of radical innovations with significant period from idea to its realization. This second direction uses benchmarking as the research methodology with useful results. Conclusions and directions of further researches. A scientific review of the nature and methods of the use of intellectual capital at this stage of economic development of Ukraine has its own challenges, among which are such areas of study as the structure of this capital, capacity assessment at the level of enterprises, regions and the country as a whole, identify the key factors influencing intellectual capital, evaluation of investment efficiency in support of it. Further studies relate to such unsolved issues as the relationship of the IR with the mechanisms of management of innovative development, efficiency of investments in IR, the need to ensure the intellectual development, assessment of intellectual potential of subjects of economic activity.

  9. Assessment of the potential radiological impact of residual contamination in the Maralinga and Emu areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The report presents an assessment of potential doses to future inhabitants of the Maralinga and Emu areas of Southern Australia, where nuclear weapons tests in the 1950s and 1960s resulted in widespread residual radioactive contamination. Annual effective doses of several millisieverts would be expected to result from continual occupancy within contours enclosing areas of several hundred square kilometres. Larger predicted annual effective doses - of the order of 0.5 Sv -would be expected to occur from 100% occupancy in small regions immediately surrounding the test sites, but continual occupancy of such areas is highly unlikely because of their small size. The most significant dose pathways are inhalation of resuspended activity and ingestion of soil by infants. An analysis of the effects of uncertainties in the dose calculation indicated the uncertainty distribution on predicted doses from the inhalation pathway. (author)

  10. Assessment of potential doses at the Maralinga and Emu test sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An assessment has been undertaken of potential doses to future aboriginal inhabitants of the Maralinga and Emu areas of South Australia, where nuclear weapons tests in the 1950s and 1960s have resulted in residual radioactive contamination. Radioactive material due to this programme of tests and other experiments is still detectable several tens of kilometres from some of the test sites, and continued occupancy by individuals following and Aboriginal lifestyle could give rise to annual effective dose equivalents of several millisieverts within contours enclosing areas of several hundred square kilometres. The most significant dose pathways are calculated to be the inhalation of resuspended activity and ingestion of soil by infants. An analysis of the effects of uncertainties in the dose calculation has indicated the uncertainty distribution on predicted doses from the inhalation pathway. (author). 15 refs, 3 figs, 5 tabs

  11. Assessing the global warming potential of wooden products from the furniture sector to improve their ecodesign

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main objective of this study was to determine the global warming potential of several wood products as an environmental criterion for their ecodesign. Two methodologies were combined: the quantification of greenhouse gas emissions (equivalent CO2) of several representative wood based products from the furniture sector and the integration of environmental aspects into product design. The products under assessment were classified in two groups: indoor products and outdoor products, depending on their location. “Indoor products” included a convertible cot/bed, a kitchen cabinet, an office table, a living room furniture, a headboard, youth room accessories and a wine crate, while the “Outdoor products” analysed were a ventilated wooden wall and a wooden playground. Spanish wood processing companies located in Galicia (NW Spain) and Catalonia (NE Spain) were analysed in detail. The life cycle of each product was carried out from a cradle-to-gate perspective according to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, using global warming potential as the selected impact category. According to the results, metals, boards and energy use appeared to be the most contributing elements to the environmental impact of the different products under assessment, with total contributions ranging from 40% to 90%. Furthermore, eco-design strategies were proposed by means of the methodology known as Design for the Environment (DfE). Improvement strategies viable for implementation in the short term were considered and analysed in detail, accounting for remarkable reductions in the equivalent CO2 emissions (up to 60%). These strategies would be focused on the use of renewable energies such as photovoltaic cells, the promotion of national fibres or changes in the materials used. Other alternatives to be implemented in the long term can be of potential interest for future developments.

  12. Global River Flood Exposure Assessment Under Climate Change: How Many Asians Are Affected By Flood in the Future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Y.; Iwami, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Physical exposure assessment in this study shows a methodological possibility to be used as a preliminary case study based on a global approach for flood risk assessment consisting of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The purpose of this preliminary study is to estimate potential flood inundation areas as a hazard (both present and future condition), and flood exposure change over the Asia region with consideration of climate change impacts. A flood hazard was characterized by inundation area at the high-resolution of 500 m, location (lowland around rivers), and probability (floods with the 50-year return period). This study introduced a new approach to moderate the global flood hazard and the exposure calculation with significant limitations of current models for continental-scale flood risk assessment by using the flood inundation depth (FID) model based on Manning's steady, uniform flow resistance formula in extreme case during 25-year simulations based on the global BTOP distributed hydrological model using precipitations from the MRI-AGCM 3.2S with SRES A1B emissions scenarios for present-day (daily data from 1980 to 2004), and end-of-the-21st century (daily data from 2075 to 2099). It effectively simplified the complexity between hydrological and topological variables in a flood risk-prone area with assumption of the effects of natural or artificial levees. Exposure was obtained by combining the hazards at the same resolution to identify affected population by calculating with urbanization ratio and population change ratio of Asian countries from a distributed data of global population (Landscan by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory). As a result of the physical exposure assessment from present to the end-of-the-21st century, potential hazards area and affected population are projected to increase 4.2 % (approximately 75,900 km2) and 3.4 % (approximately 35.1 million people) respectively, because Asian population increases about 43% in the future. We found

  13. Preliminary assessment of future refining impacts of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A preliminary assessment of the future refining impacts of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 has been performed with the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting Systems. The assessment suggests that gasoline reformulation costs in domestic coastal and near-coastal refining regions in the year 2000 could be 3.5 to 5.6 cents per gallon (in terms of 1989 currency). For heating value equivalent to one gallon of conventional gasoline, the regional total added costs (including reformulation costs) for reformulated gasoline could be 5.9 to 8.0 cents. In blending reformulated gasolines, the reduction of butane for lower Reid vapor pressure and the reduction of reformate for lower aromatics are generally compensated by increased percentages of alkylate and/or straight run naphthas. Relatively larger refinery process capacity additions are required for butane isomerization, alkylation, aromatics recovery, and distillate hydrotreating. 21 refs., 3 figs., 18 tabs

  14. Understanding of a negative bowel screening result and potential impact on future symptom appraisal and help-seeking behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barnett, Karen N; Weller, David; Smith, Steve;

    2016-01-01

    ) emotional response to a negative FOBt, (ii) understanding the limitations of FOBt screening, (iii) symptom knowledge and interpretation and (iv) over-reassurance from a negative FOBt. Participants were reassured by a negative FOBt, but there was variability in the extent to which the result was interpreted......BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening using a faecal occult blood test (FOBt) has the potential to reduce cancer-related mortality. Symptom vigilance remains crucial as a proportion of cancers will be diagnosed between screening rounds. A negative FOBt has the potential to influence how...... participants respond to future symptoms of CRC. OBJECTIVE: To explore (i) understanding of a negative FOBt and (ii) the potential impact of a negative FOBt upon future symptom appraisal and help-seeking behaviour. DESIGN: Qualitative methodology utilizing focus groups with participants who received a negative...

  15. Future Water Resources Assessment for West African River Basins Under Climate Change, Population Growth and Irrigation Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wisser, D.; Ibrahim, B.; Proussevitch, A. A.

    2014-12-01

    West Africa economies rely on rain-fed agriculture and are extremely vulnerable to changes in precipitation. Results from the most recent generation of regional climate models suggest increases in rainy season rainfall variability (delayed rainy season onset, increased probability of dry spells, shorter rainy season duration) despite a moderate increase in rainy season total precipitation. These changes could potentially have detrimental effects on crop yield and food security. Additional pressures on water resources come from increased demand as a result of high population growth rates (~3% per year). Increased water storage and irrigation can help improve crop yields but future assessments of water resources are needed to prioritize irrigation development as an adaptation option. Increased water abstraction, in turn can impact water availability in downstream regions so that an integrated assessment of future water availability and demand is needed. We use a set of 15 RCM outputs from the CORDEX data archive to drive WBMplus, a hydrological model and simulate water availability under climate change. Based on estimated water constraints, we develop scenarios to expand irrigated areas (from the current 1% of all croplands) and calculate the effects on water scarcity, taking into account increased demand for domestic consumption and livestock water demand, at a spatial resolution of 10 km. Results around the 2050's indicate large potential to develop irrigated areas on ground and surface water and increase local water storage without increasing water scarcity downstream for many river basins in the region that could help alleviate pressures on the cropping systems and thereby increase food security.

  16. Identifying and Mitigating Potential Nutrient and Sediment Hot Spots under a Future Scenario in the Missouri River Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, May [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Zhang, Zhonglong [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for large-scale watershed modeling could be useful for evaluating the quality of the water in regions that are dominated by nonpoint sources in order to identify potential “hot spots” for which mitigating strategies could be further developed. An analysis of water quality under future scenarios in which changes in land use would be made to accommodate increased biofuel production was developed for the Missouri River Basin (MoRB) based on a SWAT model application. The analysis covered major agricultural crops and biofuel feedstock in the MoRB, including pasture land, hay, corn, soybeans, wheat, and switchgrass. The analysis examined, at multiple temporal and spatial scales, how nitrate, organic nitrogen, and total nitrogen; phosphorus, organic phosphorus, inorganic phosphorus, and total phosphorus; suspended sediments; and water flow (water yield) would respond to the shifts in land use that would occur under proposed future scenarios. The analysis was conducted at three geospatial scales: (1) large tributary basin scale (two: Upper MoRB and Lower MoRB); (2) regional watershed scale (seven: Upper Missouri River, Middle Missouri River, Middle Lower Missouri River, Lower Missouri River, Yellowstone River, Platte River, and Kansas River); and (3) eight-digit hydrologic unit (HUC-8) subbasin scale (307 subbasins). Results showed that subbasin-level variations were substantial. Nitrogen loadings decreased across the entire Upper MoRB, and they increased in several subbasins in the Lower MoRB. Most nitrate reductions occurred in lateral flow. Also at the subbasin level, phosphorus in organic, sediment, and soluble forms was reduced by 35%, 45%, and 65%, respectively. Suspended sediments increased in 68% of the subbasins. The water yield decreased in 62% of the subbasins. In the Kansas River watershed, the water quality improved significantly with regard to every nitrogen and phosphorus compound. The improvement was

  17. Potential impact of Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR) decommissioning experience on future GENERATION IV SFRs design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In comparison with some other GENERATION IV (GEN IV) reactor concepts, Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR) concept has the main advantage that prototypes of this system have been built and successfully operated in many countries. Some of these prototypes have been shut down and are presently being decommissioned. The importance of decommissioning this type of Reactor cannot be underestimated, in support of the SFR as a viable reactor concept for the future, for the following reasons : - To provide guidelines on how future reactors should be designed to optimize the performances in terms of operational behavior, inspection, maintenance and repair. - To provide information on how future reactors should be designed to reduce decommissioning costs. - To inform about the performance of construction's materials that have been exposed to sodium, radiations, high temperatures and temperatures cycling. - To develop new technologies that will facilitate the implementation of improved operational characteristics of future SFRs. Thus even if decommissioning has to be considered as a long term study, significant cost savings in the decommissioning of future systems can be identified from this actual experimental feedback. There are now some innovations being designed from the decommissioning process in the fields of decontamination processes, robotics and waste management which will bode well for the successful operation, maintenance and inspections of future SFRs. The objective of this paper is to give an overview of SFR decommissioning experiences. It is highlighting what are major issues that would need to be addressed in future basic SFR design concept to facilitate the decommissioning. This experience covers all the different basic systems defined in a 'typical' Sodium Fast Reactor design (i.e. : Primary circuit components, Secondary circuit components, Cold traps, Steam Generators, Sodium tanks, etc.). The recommendations proposed will have the following objectives: - Be easy to

  18. Beyond integrated safeguards: Performance-based assessments for future nuclear controls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: In the future, if the nuclear nonproliferation and arms control agendas are to advance, they will likely become increasingly seen as parallel undertakings with the objective of comprehensive cradle-to-grave controls over nuclear materials and possibly even warheads removed from defense programs along with materials in civilian use. This 'back to the future' prospect was envisioned in the Acheson-Lillienthal Report and the Baruch Plan, and more modestly in the Atoms-for-Peace Proposal. Unlike the grand plans of the early nuclear years, today's and tomorrow's undertakings will more likely consist of a series of incremental steps with the goal of expanding nuclear controls. These steps will be undertaken at a time of fundamental change in the IAEA safeguards system, and they will be influenced by those changes in profound ways. This prospective influence needs to be taken into account as the IAEA develops and implements integrated safeguards, including its efforts to establish new safeguards criteria, undertake technological and administrative improvements in safeguards, implement credible capabilities for the detection of undeclared nuclear facilities and activities and, perhaps, provide for a more intensive involvement in applying safeguards in new roles such as the verification of a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty. Performance-based criteria offer one promising way to address the effectiveness of integrated safeguards and to provide a common means of assessing the other key areas of a comprehensive approach to nuclear controls as these develop independently and to the extent that they are coordinated in the future. (author)

  19. Beyond integrated safeguards: performance-based assessments for future nuclear controls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the future, iE the nuclear nonproliferation and arms control agendas are to advance, they will likely become increasingly seen as parallel undertakings with the objective of comprehensive cradle-to-grave controls over nuclear materials and possibly even warheads removed from defense programs along with materials in civilian use. This 'back to the future' prospect was envisioned in the Acheson-Lillienthal Report and the Baruch Plan, and more modestly in the Atoms-for-Peace Proposal. Unlike the grand plans of the early nuclear years, today's and tomorrow's undertakings will more likely consist of a series of incremental steps with the goal of expanding nuclear controls. These steps will be undertaken at a time of fundamental change in the IAEA safeguards system, and they will be influenced by those changes in profound ways. This prospective influence needs to be taken into account as the IAEA develops and implements integrated safeguards, including its efforts to establish new safeguards criteria, undertake technological and administrative improvements in safeguards, implement credible capabilities for the detection of undeclared nuclear facilities and activities and, perhaps, provide for a more intensive involvement in applying safeguards in new roles such as the verification of a fissile materials cutoff treaty. Performance-based criteria offer one promising way to address the effectiveness of integrated safeguards and to provide a common means of assessing the other key areas of a comprehensive approach to nuclear controls as these develop independently and to the extent that they are coordinated in the future.

  20. Impact of a Cross-Institutional Assessment Designed to Shape Future IT Professionals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grace Tan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available IT graduates need a suite of technical competencies and soft skills married with an understanding of the social and business contexts of the systems that they build. To instill in students an awareness of current IT industry practice coupled with the broader impact of their discipline in society, academics from Victoria University and Federation University initiated an across-institutional collaboration. The initiative resulted in a common formative assessment task undertaken by teams of students enrolled in each institution’s professional development units. An initial survey of students was undertaken prior to the assessment task. The survey queried students’ perceptions of a broad range of professional attitudes and skill sets needed by IT professionals when compared to non-skilled workers. Upon the completion of the assessment task, students were surveyed again as to their perceptions of the importance of personal skills, technical competencies, professional and team working skills, workplace knowledge, and cultural awareness for their future professional lives. Comparisons of both surveys’ results revealed that the cohort had a greater appreciation of technical abilities and team-working skills post the assessment task.

  1. Incorporating the productivity benefits into the assessment of cost effective energy savings potential using conservation supply curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We review the relationship between energy efficiency improvement measures and productivity in industry. We propose a method to include productivity benefits in the economic assessment of the potential for energy efficiency improvement. The paper explores the implications of how this change in perspective might affect the evaluation of energy-efficient technologies for a study of the iron and steel industry in the U.S. It is found that including productivity benefits explicitly in the modeling parameters would double the cost-effective potential for energy efficiency improvement, compared to an analysis excluding those benefits. We provide suggestions for future research for this important area

  2. The assessment of future human actions at radioactive waste disposal sites: An international perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For some deep geological disposal systems, the level of confinement provided by the natural and engineered barriers is considered to be so high that the greatest long-term risks associated with waste disposal may arise from the possibility of future human actions breaching the natural and/or engineered barrier systems. Following a Workshop in 1989, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency established a Working Group on Assessment of Future Human Actions (FHA) at Radioactive Waste Disposal Sites. This Group met four times in the period 1991-1993, and has extensively reviewed approaches to and experience of incorporating the effects of FHA into long-term performance assessments (PAs). The Working Group's report reviews the main issues concerning the treatment of FHA, presents a general framework for the quantitative consideration of FHA in radioactive waste disposal programmes, and discusses means to reduce the risks associated with FHA. The Working Group concluded that FHA must be considered in PAs, although FHA where the actors were cognizant of the risks could be ignored. Credit can be taken for no more than several hundred years of active site control; additional efforts should therefore be taken to reduce the risks associated with FHA. International agreement on principles for the construction of FHA scenarios would build confidence, as would further discussion concerning regulatory policies for judging the risks associated with FHA

  3. The Future of Hydropower: Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change, Energy Prices and New Storage Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudard, Ludovic; Madani, Kaveh; Romerio, Franco

    2016-04-01

    The future of hydropower depends on various drivers, and in particular on climate change, electricity market evolution and innovation in new storage technologies. Their impacts on the power plants' profitability can widely differ in regards of scale, timing, and probability of occurrence. In this respect, the risk should not be expressed only in terms of expected revenue, but also of uncertainty. These two aspects must be considered to assess the future of hydropower. This presentation discusses the impacts of climate change, electricity market volatility and competing energy storage's technologies and quantifies them in terms of annual revenue. Our simulations integrate a glacio-hydrological model (GERM) with various electricity market data and models (mean reversion and jump diffusion). The medium (2020-50) and long-term (2070-2100) are considered thanks to various greenhouse gas scenarios (A1B, A2 and RCP3PD) and the stochastic approach for the electricity prices. An algorithm named "threshold acceptance" is used to optimize the reservoir operations. The impacts' scale, and the related uncertainties are presented for Mauvoisin, which is a storage-hydropower plant situated in the Swiss Alps, and two generic pure pumped-storage installations, which are assessed with the prices of 17 European electricity markets. The discussion will highlight the key differences between the impacts brought about by the drivers.

  4. Potential future impact of a partially effective HIV vaccine in a southern African setting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Phillips, Andrew N; Cambiano, Valentina; Nakagawa, Fumiyo;

    2014-01-01

    of a realistic future implementation scenario in resource limited settings. METHODS: An individual level model of HIV transmission, progression and the effect of antiretroviral therapy was used to predict the outcome to 2060 of introduction in 2025 of a partially effective vaccine with various...... public health goal....

  5. The Potential of Simulated Environments in Teacher Education: Current and Future Possibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieker, Lisa A.; Rodriguez, Jacqueline A.; Lignugaris/Kraft, Benjamin; Hynes, Michael C.; Hughes, Charles E.

    2014-01-01

    The future of virtual environments is evident in many fields but is just emerging in the field of teacher education. In this article, the authors provide a summary of the evolution of simulation in the field of teacher education and three factors that need to be considered as these environments further develop. The authors provide a specific…

  6. The State of Low Cost Air Travel in Australia and its Potential for the Future

    OpenAIRE

    Verhelst, John E. M.

    2009-01-01

    This study examines the current state and the market potential of the two Australian low cost airlines, Virgin Blue and Jetstar, using the models and experiences of two successful low cost airlines, Southwest Airlines (USA) and Ryanair (Ireland). Both Southwest Airlines and Ryanair have been operating profitably , and are useful models for comparison of both the performance and market potential of the Australian low cost airlines. Finally, the study analyses the potential for further developm...

  7. T2* mapping for articular cartilage assessment: principles, current applications, and future prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    With advances in joint preservation surgery that are intended to alter the course of osteoarthritis by early intervention, accurate and reliable assessment of the cartilage status is critical. Biochemically sensitive MRI techniques can add robust biomarkers for disease onset and progression, and therefore, could be meaningful assessment tools for the diagnosis and follow-up of cartilage abnormalities. T2* mapping could be a good alternative because it would combine the benefits of biochemical cartilage evaluation with remarkable features including short imaging time and the ability of high-resolution three-dimensional cartilage evaluation - without the need for contrast media administration or special hardware. Several in vitro and in vivo studies, which have elaborated on the potential of cartilage T2* assessment in various cartilage disease patterns and grades of degeneration, have been reported. However, much remains to be understood and certain unresolved questions have become apparent with these studies that are crucial to the further application of this technique. This review summarizes the principles of the technique and current applications of T2* mapping for articular cartilage assessment. Limitations of recent studies are discussed and the potential implications for patient care are presented. (orig.)

  8. T2* mapping for articular cartilage assessment: principles, current applications, and future prospects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hesper, Tobias; Bittersohl, Daniela; Krauspe, Ruediger; Zilkens, Christoph [University Duesseldorf, Department of Orthopaedics Medical Faculty, Duesseldorf (Germany); Hosalkar, Harish S. [Center of Hip Preservation and Children' s Orthopaedics, San Diego, CA (United States); Welsch, Goetz H. [Medical University of Vienna, MR Center, Department of Radiology, Vienna (Austria); Bittersohl, Bernd [University Duesseldorf, Department of Orthopaedics Medical Faculty, Duesseldorf (Germany); Heinrich-Heine University, Medical School, Department of Orthopaedics, Duesseldorf (Germany)

    2014-10-15

    With advances in joint preservation surgery that are intended to alter the course of osteoarthritis by early intervention, accurate and reliable assessment of the cartilage status is critical. Biochemically sensitive MRI techniques can add robust biomarkers for disease onset and progression, and therefore, could be meaningful assessment tools for the diagnosis and follow-up of cartilage abnormalities. T2* mapping could be a good alternative because it would combine the benefits of biochemical cartilage evaluation with remarkable features including short imaging time and the ability of high-resolution three-dimensional cartilage evaluation - without the need for contrast media administration or special hardware. Several in vitro and in vivo studies, which have elaborated on the potential of cartilage T2* assessment in various cartilage disease patterns and grades of degeneration, have been reported. However, much remains to be understood and certain unresolved questions have become apparent with these studies that are crucial to the further application of this technique. This review summarizes the principles of the technique and current applications of T2* mapping for articular cartilage assessment. Limitations of recent studies are discussed and the potential implications for patient care are presented. (orig.)

  9. Magnetic stimulation of muscle evokes cerebral potentials in assessment of paraspinal muscle spasm.

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1998-01-01

    Objectlve: To assess the muscle spasm by magnetic stimulation of muscle evokes cerebral potentials (MMSEP). Methods: Paraspinal MMSEP and function assessment was recorded in detail before and after treat-

  10. ASSESSING CHEMICAL HAZARDS AT THE PLUTONIUM FINISHING PLANT (PFP) FOR PLANNING FUTURE D&D

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HOPKINS, A.M.; KLOS, D.B.; MINETT, M.J.

    2007-01-25

    This paper documents the fiscal year (FY) 2006 assessment to evaluate potential chemical and radiological hazards associated with vessels and piping in the former plutonium process areas at Hanford's Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP). Evaluations by PFP engineers as design authorities for specific systems and other subject-matter experts were conducted to identify the chemical hazards associated with transitioning the process areas for the long-term layup of PFP before its eventual final decontamination and decommissioning (D and D). D and D activities in the main process facilities were suspended in September 2005 for a period of between 5 and 10 years. A previous assessment conducted in FY 2003 found that certain activities to mitigate chemical hazards could be deferred safely until the D and D of PFP, which had been scheduled to result in a slab-on-grade condition by 2009. As a result of necessary planning changes, however, D and D activities at PFP will be delayed until after the 2009 time frame. Given the extended project and plant life, it was determined that a review of the plant chemical hazards should be conducted. This review to determine the extended life impact of chemicals is called the ''Plutonium Finishing Plant Chemical Hazards Assessment, FY 2006''. This FY 2006 assessment addresses potential chemical and radiological hazard areas identified by facility personnel and subject-matter experts who reevaluated all the chemical systems (items) from the FY 2003 assessment. This paper provides the results of the FY 2006 chemical hazards assessment and describes the methodology used to assign a hazard ranking to the items reviewed.

  11. ASSESSING CHEMICAL HAZARDS AT THE PLUTONIUM FINISHING PLANT FOR PLANNING FUTURE DECONTAMINATION AND DECOMMISSIONING

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper documents the fiscal year (FY) 2006 assessment to evaluate potential chemical and radiological hazards associated with vessels and piping in the former plutonium process areas at Hanford's Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP). Evaluations by PFP engineers as design authorities for specific systems and other subject-matter experts were conducted to identify the chemical hazards associated with transitioning the process areas for the long-term layup of PFP before its eventual final decontamination and decommissioning (D and D). D and D activities in the main process facilities were suspended in September 2005 for a period of between 5 and 10 years. A previous assessment conducted in FY 2003 found that certain activities to mitigate chemical hazards could be deferred safely until the D and D of PFP, which had been scheduled to result in a slab-on-grade condition by 2009. As a result of necessary planning changes, however, D and D activities at PFP will be delayed until after the 2009 time frame. Given the extended project and plant life, it was determined that a review of the plant chemical hazards should be conducted. This review to determine the extended life impact of chemicals is called the ''Plutonium Finishing Plant Chemical Hazards Assessment, FY 2006''. This FY 2006 assessment addresses potential chemical and radiological hazard areas identified by facility personnel and subject-matter experts who reevaluated all the chemical systems (items) from the FY 2003 assessment. This paper provides the results of the FY 2006 chemical hazards assessment and describes the methodology used to assign a hazard ranking to the items reviewed

  12. Assessment of potential contaminant threats to Iroquois National Wildlife Refuge

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The primary purpose of the NBS Manual is to provide a standardized and systematic approach for identifying existing or potential contaminant problems on National...

  13. Assessment of the toxic potential of graphene family nanomaterials

    OpenAIRE

    Xiaoqing Guo; Nan Mei

    2014-01-01

    Graphene, a single-atom-thick carbon nanosheet, has attracted great interest as a promising nanomaterial for a variety of bioapplications because of its extraordinary properties. However, the potential for widespread human exposure raises safety concerns about graphene and its derivatives, referred to as graphene-family nanomaterials. This review summarizes recent findings on the toxicological effects and the potential toxicity mechanisms of graphene-family nanomaterials in bacteria, mammalia...

  14. Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gårdmark, Anna; Lindegren, Martin; Neuenfeldt, Stefan;

    2013-01-01

    Natural resource management requires approaches to understand and handle sources of uncertainty in future responses of complex systems to human activities. Here we present one such approach, the “biological ensemble modeling approach,” using the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias) as an...... single-species to food web models. These models were analyzed using the “biological ensemble modeling approach” by which we (1) identified a key ecological mechanism explaining the differences in simulated cod responses between models, (2) disentangled the uncertainty caused by differences in ecological...... model assumptions from the statistical uncertainty of future climate, and (3) identified results common for the whole model ensemble. Species interactions greatly influenced the simulated response of cod to fishing and climate, as well as the degree to which the statistical uncertainty of climate...

  15. Redefining the potential applications of dental stem cells: An asset for future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shalu Rai

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent exciting discoveries isolated dental stem cells from the pulp of the primary and permanent teeth, from the periodontal ligament, and from associated healthy tissues. Dental pulp stem cells (DPSCs represent a kind of adult cell colony which has the potent capacity of self-renewing and multilineage differentiation. Stem cell-based tooth engineering is deemed as a promising approach to the making of a biological tooth (bio-tooth or engineering of functional tooth structures. Dental professionals have the opportunity to make their patients aware of these new sources of stem cells that can be stored for future use as new therapies are developed for a range of diseases and injuries. The aim of this article is to review and understand how dental stem cells are being used for regeneration of oral and conversely nonoral tissues. A brief review on banking is also done for storing of these valuable stem cells for future use.

  16. Coastal Change Potential (CPI) Assessment of Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore (indu_shore)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A coastal change potential index (CPI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future lake-level change within Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore...

  17. Potential common radiation problems for components and diagnostics in future magnetic and inertial confinement fusion devices

    OpenAIRE

    Alvarez Ruiz, Jesus; Gonzalez Arrabal, Raquel; Rivera de Mena, Antonio; Rio Redondo, Emma del; Garoz Gómez, David; Hodgson, E.R.; Tabares, F.; Vila Vazquez, Rafael A.; Perlado Martin, Jose Manuel

    2011-01-01

    This work aims at identifying commonpotentialproblems that futurefusiondevices will encounter for both magnetic and inertialconfinement approaches in order to promote joint efforts and to avoid duplication of research. Firstly, a comparison of radiation environments found in both fusion reaction chambers will be presented. Then, wall materials, optical components, cables and electronics will be discussed, pointing to possible future areas of common research. Finally, a brief discussion of exp...

  18. Techniques and Nuclear Applications around Es Salam Reactor, Status and Future Potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Es Salam is a multipurpose heavy water research reactor, cooled and moderated by heavy water and using graphite as the reflector. It is a tank type with a nominal power of 15 MW. The design of the reactor has been optimised to satisfy radioisotope production requirement, to supply high flux neutron beams for researchers and future expansion for development and application in vital areas. (author)

  19. Environmental Epigenetics: Potential Application in Human Health Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Although previous studies have shown a significant involvement of epigenetic dysregulation in human diseases, the applicability of epigenetic data in the current human health risk assessment paradigm is unclear. The goals of this study are to compare the relative sensitivities of...

  20. REVIEW: ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL TO INDUCE RESPIRATORY HYPERSENSITIVITY

    Science.gov (United States)

    The respiratory tract has been long recognized as an important target organ in the safety assessment of drugs and chemicals, as well as protein- or peptide-based products. Indeed, acute and repeat dose inhalation studies have been an important part of guideline studies throughou...

  1. Potential use of MODIS imagery for operational crop yield assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monitoring crop condition and yields at regional scales remains a challenge. Ground-based sampling for assessment of crop yields at regional and national scales require enormous resources. Crop yield simulation models have shown great success in predicting crop yields at field and small scales; how...

  2. Future changes of wind energy potentials over Europe in a large CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moemken, Julia; Reyers, Mark; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2016-04-01

    A statistical-dynamical downscaling method is used to estimate future changes of wind energy output (Eout) of a benchmark wind turbine across Europe at the regional scale. With this aim, 22 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble are considered. The downscaling method uses circulation weather types and regional climate modelling with the COSMO-CLM model. Future projections are computed for two time periods (2021-2060 and 2061-2100) following two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The CMIP5 ensemble mean response reveals a more likely than not increase of mean annual Eout over Northern and Central Europe and a likely decrease over Southern Europe. There is some uncertainty with respect to the magnitude and the sign of the changes. Higher robustness in future changes is observed for specific seasons. Except from the Mediterranean area, an ensemble mean increase of Eout is simulated for winter and a decreasing for the summer season, resulting in a strong increase of the intra-annual variability for most of Europe. The latter is, in particular, probable during the second half of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario. In general, signals are stronger for 2061-2100 compared to 2021-2060 and for RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5. Regarding changes of the inter-annual variability of Eout for Central Europe, the future projections strongly vary between individual models and also between future periods and scenarios within single models. This study showed for an ensemble of 22 CMIP5 models that changes in the wind energy potentials over Europe may take place in future decades. However, due to the uncertainties detected in this research, further investigations with multi-model ensembles are needed to provide a better quantification and understanding of the future changes.

  3. Where Are All the Fish: Potential of Biogeographical Maps to Project Current and Future Distribution Patterns of Freshwater Species

    OpenAIRE

    Markovic, Danijela; Freyhof, Jörg; Wolter, Christian

    2012-01-01

    The dendritic structure of river networks is commonly argued against use of species atlas data for modeling freshwater species distributions, but little has been done to test the potential of grid-based data in predictive species mapping. Using four different niche-based models and three different climate change projections for the middle of the 21st century merged pairwise as well as within a consensus modeling framework, we studied the variability in current and future distribution patterns...

  4. Potential Areas of Future Oil and Gas Development, Greater Wattenberg Area, Front Range of Colorado (friogdevu)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The potential for oil and gas development in the greater Wattenberg area (GWA), which lies near the Front Range between Denver and Greeley, Colo., in the Denver...

  5. Current situation and future potential of further integration between UK and EU

    OpenAIRE

    Vovchenko Natalia Gennadievna; Epifanova Tatiana Vladimirovna; Pogorelenko Nikita Sergeevich

    2015-01-01

    The article analyses potential consequences of Brexit as well as the current costs and benefits of UK’s membership in the EU, furthermore focusing on alternative agreements that may result between the members.

  6. Assessment of Soil Liquefaction Potential Based on Numerical Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Choobasti, A. Janalizadeh; Vahdatirad, Mohammad Javad; Torabi, M.;

    2012-01-01

    Paying special attention to geotechnical hazards such as liquefaction in huge civil projects like urban railways especially in susceptible regions to liquefaction is of great importance. A number of approaches to evaluate the potential for initiation of liquefaction, such as Seed and Idriss...... accuracy, also they lack the potential to predict the pore pressure developed in the soil. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out a ground response analysis to obtain pore pressures and shear stresses in the soil due to earthquake loading. Using soil historical, geological and compositional criteria, a...... zone of the corridor of Tabriz urban railway line 2 susceptible to liquefaction was recognized. Then, using numerical analysis and cyclic stress method using QUAKE/W finite element code, soil liquefaction potential in susceptible zone was evaluated based on design earthquake....

  7. Future of Kenyan electricity generation : an analysis of physical and economical potential and least cost sources

    OpenAIRE

    Torrie, Melanie

    2014-01-01

    Kenya has always had a renewable energy mix, with over 80 percent of electricity generated from renewable sources. As the country continues to develop, and in order to meet the growing demand for electricity, Kenya is considering using non-­‐renewable sources. There are many studies on energy in Africa, and some on the potential for renewable energy in Kenya. However, there are currently no comprehensive studies on the physical potential and costs of electricity generation in Kenya. This pape...

  8. Water resources development in Africa: a review and synthesis of issues, potentials, and strategies for the future

    OpenAIRE

    Rosegrant, Mark W.; Perez, Nicostrato D.

    1997-01-01

    This paper analyzes how water resources development and water policy reform can be deployed to address the twin problems of food insecurity and water scarcity in Africa and, in particular, Sub-Saharan Africa. The paper reviews the current status of water supply and demand, and the existing and potential irrigated land base in Africa; reviews the performance of existing irrigation systems and assesses the magnitude of the potential contribution and cost-effectiveness of new irrigation developm...

  9. Futures Analysis of Urban Land Use and Wetland Change in Saskatoon, Canada: An Application in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anton Sizo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a scenario-based approach to strategic environmental assessment (SEA for wetland trend analysis and land use and land cover (LUC modeling in an urban environment. The application is focused on the Saskatoon urban environment, a rapidly growing urban municipality in Canada’s prairie pothole region. Alternative future LUC was simulated using remote sensing data and city spatial planning documentation using a Markov Chain technique. Two alternatives were developed and compared for LUC change and threats to urban wetland sustainability: a zero alternative that simulated trends in urban development and wetland conservation under a business as usual scenario, in the absence of prescribed planning and zoning actions; and an alternative focused on implementation of current urban development plans, which simulated future LUC to account for prescribed wetland conservation strategies. Results show no improvement in future wetland conditions under the city’s planned growth and wetland conservation scenario versus the business as usual scenario. Results also indicate that a blanket wetland conservation strategy for the city may not be sufficient to overcome the historic trend of urban wetland loss; and that spatially distributed conservation rates, based on individual wetland water catchment LUC peculiarities, may be more effective in terms of wetland conservation. The paper also demonstrates the challenges to applied SEA in a rapidly changing urban planning context, where data are often sparse and inconsistent across the urban region, and provides potential solutions through LUC classification and prediction tools to help overcome data limitations to support land use planning decisions for wetland conservation.

  10. Impact of future climatic conditions on the potential for soil organic matter priming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reinsch, Sabine; Ambus, Per; Thornton, Barry;

    2013-01-01

    Terrestrial carbon (C) storage and turnover are of major interest under changing climatic conditions. We present a laboratory microcosm study investigating the effects of anticipated climatic conditions on the soil microbial community and related changes in soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition...... using chloroform fumigation extraction, and compound-specific phospholipid fatty acid analysis was used to determine microbial community composition and substrate use. We observed that glucose additions induced SOM priming in ambient and eCO2 treated soils, but not in soil exposed to future climatic...

  11. Analyzing Potential Grid Impacts from Future In-Motion Roadway Wireless Power Transfer Scenarios: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meintz, Andrew; Gonder, Jeffrey; Jorgenson, Jennie; Brooker, Aaron

    2016-08-01

    This work examines the grid impact of in-motion roadway wireless power transfer through the examination of the electrification of high-capacity roadways inside a metropolitan area. The work uses data from a regional travel study and the Federal Highway Administration's Highway Performance Monitoring System to estimate the electrified roadway's hourly power use throughout a week. The data are then combined with hourly grid load estimates for the same metropolitan area to determine the overlay of traditional grid load with additional load from a future electrified roadway.

  12. Assessment of liquefaction potential index for Mumbai city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Dixit

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Mumbai city is the financial capital of India and is fifth most densely populated city in the world. Seismic soil liquefaction is evaluated for Mumbai city in terms of the factors of safety against liquefaction (FS along the depths of soil profiles for different earthquakes with 2% probability of exceedance in 50 yr using standard penetration test (SPT-based simplified empirical procedure. This liquefaction potential is evaluated at 142 representative sites in the city using the borehole records from standard penetration tests. Liquefaction potential index (LPI is evaluated at each borehole location from the obtained factors of safety (FS to predict the potential of liquefaction to cause damage at the surface level at the site of interest. Spatial distribution of soil liquefaction potential is presented in the form of contour maps of LPI values. As the majority of the sites in the city are of reclaimed land, the vulnerability of liquefaction is observed to be very high at many places.

  13. Assessment of the Geothermal Potential Within the BPA Marketing Area.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lund, John W.; Allen, Eliot D.

    1980-07-01

    The potential of geothermal energy is estimated that can be used for direct heat applications and electrical power generation within the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) marketing area. The BPA marketing area includes three principal states of Oregon, Washington, and Idaho and portions of California, Montana, Wyoming, Nevada, and Utah bordering on these three states. This area covers approximately 384,000 square miles and has an estimated population of 6,760,000. The total electrical geothermal potential within this marketing area is 4077 MW/sub e/ from hydrothermal resources and 16,000 MW/sub e/ from igneous systems, whereas the total thermal (wellhead) potential is 16.15 x 10/sup 15/ Btu/y. Approximately 200 geothermal resource sites were initially identified within the BPA marketing area. This number was then reduced to about 100 sites thought to be the most promising for development by the year 2000. These 100 sites, due to load area overlap, were grouped into 53 composite sites; 21-3/4 within BPA preference customer areas and 31-1/4 within nonpreference customer areas. The geothermal resource potential was then estimated for high-temperature (> 302/sup 0/F = 150/sup 0/C), intermediate-temperature (194 to 302/sup 0/F = 90 to 150/sup 0/C), and low-temperature (< 194/sup 0/F = 90/sup 0/C) resources.

  14. The Work Sample: Reality-Based Assessment of Vocational Potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mobilization for Youth, Inc., New York, NY.

    Developed as a handbook, this document is intended to serve as a technical guide for establishing vocational evaluation units as a means of screening minorities for successful job placement and fulfillment. In the proposed vocational evaluation units, the potential employee uses the tools, materials, and equipment of a given occupation in a…

  15. Assessing the potential of change in urban infrastructure systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Susanne Balslev; Elle, Morten

    2000-01-01

    In order to understand the dynamics and the potential of change, urban infrastructure must be seen as socio-technical artefacts. The paper offers a methodology for analysing current infrastructure and a case study demonstrating that social relations plays a significant role as barriers of...

  16. Information resources for assessing health effects from chemical exposure: Challenges, priorities, and future issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seigel, S. [National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD (United States)

    1990-12-31

    Issues related to developing information resources for assessing the health effects from chemical exposure include the question of how to address the individual political issues relevant to identifying and determining the timeliness, scientific credibility, and completeness of such kinds of information resources. One of the important ways for agencies to share information is through connection tables. This type of software is presently being used to build information products for some DHHS agencies. One of the challenges will be to convince vendors of data of the importance of trying to make data files available to communities that need them. In the future, information processing will be conducted with neural networks, object-oriented database management systems, and fuzzy-set technologies, and meta analysis techniques.

  17. Scenarios of Future Water use on Mediterranean Islands based on an Integrated Assessment of Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, M. A.

    2006-12-01

    The availability of water in sufficient quantities and adequate quality presents considerable problems on Mediterranean islands. Because of their isolation and thus the impossibility to draw on more distant or more divers aquifers, they rely entirely on precipitation as natural replenishing mechanism. Recent observations indicate decreasing precipitation, increasing evaporation and steadily growing demand for water on the islands. Future climate change will exacerbate this problem, thus increasing the already pertinent vulnerability to droughts. Responsible planning of water management strategies requires scenarios of future supply and demand through an integrated assessment including climate scenarios based on regional climate modeling as well as scenarios on changes in societal and economical determinants of water demand. Constructing such strategies necessitates a thorough understanding about the interdependencies and feedbacks between physical/hydrological and socio-economic determinants of water balances on an island. This has to be based on a solid understanding of past and present developments of these drivers. In the framework of the EU-funded MEDIS project (Towards sustainable water use on Mediterranean Islands: addressing conflicting demands and varying hydrological, social and economic conditions, EVK1-CT-2001-00092), detailed investigations on present vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies to droughts have been carried out on Mallorca, Corsica, Sicily, Crete and Cyprus. This was based on an interdisciplinary study design including hydrological, geophysical, agricultural-, social and political sciences investigations. A central element of the study has been the close interaction with stakeholders on the islands and their contribution to strategy formulation. An important result has been a specification of vulnerability components including: a physical/environmental-, an economical/regulatory- and a social/institutional/political component. Their

  18. Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants

  19. Assessing the impact of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Z.

    2015-12-01

    Future climate changes will place big challenges to the US agricultural system, among which increasing heat stress and precipitation variability were the two major concerns. Reliable prediction of crop productions in response to the increasingly frequent and severe extreme climate is a prerequisite for developing adaptive strategies on agricultural risk management. However, the progress has been slow on quantifying the uncertainty of computational predictions at high spatial resolutions. Here we assessed the risks of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM) model under different climate scenarios. To quantify the uncertainty due to conceptual representations of heat, drought and flooding stress in crop models, we proposed a new strategy of algorithm ensemble in which different methods for simulating crop responses to those extreme climatic events were incorporated into the APSIM. This strategy allowed us to isolate irrelevant structure differences among existing crop models but only focus on the process of interest. Future climate inputs were derived from high-spatial-resolution (12km × 12km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) and 8.5 (RCP 8.5). Based on crop model simulations, we analyzed the magnitude and frequency of heat, drought and flooding stress for the 21st century. We also evaluated the water use efficiency and water deficit on regional scales if farmers were to boost their yield by applying more fertilizers. Finally we proposed spatially explicit adaptation strategies of irrigation and fertilizing for different management zones.

  20. Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-08-01

    OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants.

  1. An Initial Assessment of the GOES Microburst Windspeed Potential Index

    OpenAIRE

    Pryor, Kenneth L.

    2007-01-01

    A suite of products has been developed and evaluated to assess hazards presented by convective downbursts to aircraft in flight derived from the current generation of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite. The existing suite of GOES microburst products employs the GOES sounder to calculate risk based on conceptual models of favorable environmental profiles for convective downburst generation. Large output values of the microburst index algorithms indicate that the ambient thermody...

  2. Assessment of the potential for ferrocyanide propagating reaction accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report contains safety criteria for the storage of ferrocyanide bearing waste sludges in Hanford underground waste storage tanks. In addition, the tank wastes are categorized with this criteria into SAFE, CONDITIONALLY SAFE, and UNSAFE categories based on available historical records and sample information. Fourteen (14) tanks are classified as CONDITIONALLY SAFE, while four (4) C-Farm tanks are categorized as SAFE. This report therefore provides a technical basis to resolve the ferrocyanide safety issue for these four tanks and supports their removal from the Watch List. The 14 CONDITIONALLY SAFE tanks will be re-evaluated in a future revision to this report as representative sample data becomes available. It is anticipated that the 14 tanks will be re-categorized as SAFE at that time

  3. Assessing the value of wind generation in future carbon constrained electricity industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper employs a novel Monte-Carlo based generation portfolio assessment tool to explore the implications of increasing wind penetration and carbon prices within future electricity generation portfolios under considerable uncertainty. This tool combines optimal generation mix techniques with Monte Carlo simulation and portfolio analysis methods to determine expected overall generation costs, associated cost uncertainty and expected CO2 emissions for different possible generation portfolios. A case study of an electricity industry with coal, Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT), Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGT) and wind generation options that faces uncertain future fossil-fuel prices, carbon pricing, electricity demand and plant construction costs is presented to illustrate some of the key issues associated with growing wind penetrations. The case study uses half-hourly demand and wind generation data from South Eastern Australia, and regional estimates of new-build plant costs and characteristics. Results suggest that although wind generation generally increases overall industry costs, it reduces associated cost uncertainties and CO2 emissions. However, there are some cases in which wind generation can reduce the overall costs of generation portfolios. The extent to which wind penetration affects industry expected costs and uncertainties depends on the level of carbon price and the conventional technology mix in the portfolios. - Highlights: A probabilistic portfolio analysis tool to assess generation portfolios with wind power. ► Explore the impacts of wind penetrations and carbon prices under uncertainties. ► Wind generation increases overall portfolio costs but reduces cost risks and emissions. ► The value of wind power depends on the carbon price and the technology mix. ► Complex interactions between wind penetration level and carbon pricing.

  4. Potential hazards from future eruptions of Mount St. Helens volanco, Washington

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crandell, D.R.; Mullineaux, D.R.

    1978-01-01

    Mount St. Helens has been more active and more explosive during the last 4500 years than any other volcano in the conterminous United States. Eruptions of that period repeatedly formed domes, large volumes of pumice, hot pyroclastic flows, and during the last 2500 years, lava flows. Some of this activity resulted in mudflows that extended tens of kilometers down the floors of valleys that head at the volcano. This report describes the nature of these phenomena and their threat to people and property; the accompaning maps show areas likely to be affected by future eruptions of Mount St. Helens. Explosive eruptions that produce large volumes of pumice affect large areas because winds can carry the lightweight material hundreds of kilometers from the volcano. Because of prevailing winds, the 180/sup 0/ sector east of the volcano will be affected most often and most severely by future eruptions of this kind. However, the pumice from any one eruption probably will fall in only a small part of that sector. Pyroclastic flows and mudflows also can affect areas far from the volcano, but the areas they affect are smaller because they follow valleys. Mudflows and possibly pyroclastic flows moving rapidly down Swift and Pine Creeks could displace water in Swift Reservoir, which could cause disastrous floods farther downvalley.

  5. Assessment of future scenarios for wind erosion sensitivity changes based on ALADIN and REMO regional climate model simulation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mezősi, Gábor; Blanka, Viktória; Bata, Teodóra; Ladányi, Zsuzsanna; Kemény, Gábor; Meyer, Burghard C.

    2016-07-01

    The changes in rate and pattern of wind erosion sensitivity due to climate change were investigated for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 compared to the reference period (1961-1990) in Hungary. The sensitivities of the main influencing factors (soil texture, vegetation cover and climate factor) were evaluated by fuzzy method and a combined wind erosion sensitivity map was compiled. The climate factor, as the driving factor of the changes, was assessed based on observed data for the reference period, while REMO and ALADIN regional climate model simulation data for the future periods. The changes in wind erosion sensitivity were evaluated on potentially affected agricultural land use types, and hot spot areas were allocated. Based on the results, 5-6% of the total agricultural areas were high sensitive areas in the reference period. In the 21st century slight or moderate changes of wind erosion sensitivity can be expected, and mostly `pastures', `complex cultivation patterns', and `land principally occupied by agriculture with significant areas of natural vegetation' are affected. The applied combination of multi-indicator approach and fuzzy analysis provides novelty in the field of land sensitivity assessment. The method is suitable for regional scale analysis of wind erosion sensitivity changes and supports regional planning by allocating priority areas where changes in agro-technics or land use have to be considered.

  6. Assessment of the toxic potential of graphene family nanomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoqing Guo

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Graphene, a single-atom-thick carbon nanosheet, has attracted great interest as a promising nanomaterial for a variety of bioapplications because of its extraordinary properties. However, the potential for widespread human exposure raises safety concerns about graphene and its derivatives, referred to as graphene-family nanomaterials. This review summarizes recent findings on the toxicological effects and the potential toxicity mechanisms of graphene-family nanomaterials in bacteria, mammalian cells, and animal models. Graphene, graphene oxide, and reduced graphene oxide elicit toxic effects both in vitro and in vivo, whereas surface modifications can significantly reduce their toxic interactions with living systems. Standardization of terminology and the fabrication methods of graphene-family nanomaterials are warranted for further investigations designed to decrease their adverse effects and explore their biomedical applications.

  7. E-assessment for learning? Exploring the potential of computer-marked assessment and computer-generated feedback, from short-answer questions to assessment analytics.

    OpenAIRE

    Jordan, Sally

    2014-01-01

    This submission draws on research from twelve publications, all addressing some aspect of the broad research question: “Can interactive computer-marked assessment improve the effectiveness of assessment for learning?” The work starts from a consideration of the conditions under which assessment of any sort is predicted to best support learning, and reviews the broader literature of assessment and feedback before considering the potential of computer-based assessment, focusing on relativ...

  8. Assessment of economically optimal water management and geospatial potential for large-scale water storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weerasinghe, Harshi; Schneider, Uwe A.

    2010-05-01

    Assessment of economically optimal water management and geospatial potential for large-scale water storage Weerasinghe, Harshi; Schneider, Uwe A Water is an essential but limited and vulnerable resource for all socio-economic development and for maintaining healthy ecosystems. Water scarcity accelerated due to population expansion, improved living standards, and rapid growth in economic activities, has profound environmental and social implications. These include severe environmental degradation, declining groundwater levels, and increasing problems of water conflicts. Water scarcity is predicted to be one of the key factors limiting development in the 21st century. Climate scientists have projected spatial and temporal changes in precipitation and changes in the probability of intense floods and droughts in the future. As scarcity of accessible and usable water increases, demand for efficient water management and adaptation strategies increases as well. Addressing water scarcity requires an intersectoral and multidisciplinary approach in managing water resources. This would in return safeguard the social welfare and the economical benefit to be at their optimal balance without compromising the sustainability of ecosystems. This paper presents a geographically explicit method to assess the potential for water storage with reservoirs and a dynamic model that identifies the dimensions and material requirements under an economically optimal water management plan. The methodology is applied to the Elbe and Nile river basins. Input data for geospatial analysis at watershed level are taken from global data repositories and include data on elevation, rainfall, soil texture, soil depth, drainage, land use and land cover; which are then downscaled to 1km spatial resolution. Runoff potential for different combinations of land use and hydraulic soil groups and for mean annual precipitation levels are derived by the SCS-CN method. Using the overlay and decision tree algorithms

  9. The methodology for wood potential assessment in Slovenia

    OpenAIRE

    Ščap, Špela; Triplat, Matevž; Piškur, Mitja; Krajnc, Nike

    2014-01-01

    The information on wooden potentials from Slovenian forests is important for all stakeholders involved in the forest-wood chain (such as enterprises engaged in purchasing, processing or sales of roundwood, pulp industry, CHP plants ...). For these stakeholders, the actual amounts of wood appearing on the market are relevant. Thus the amount of wood consumed by forest owners for their own needs should be excluded. The Slovenian Forestry Institute has developed its own methodology for the evalu...

  10. ASSESSMENT OF THE FLOODS POTENTIAL IN JIU RIVER CATCHMENT

    OpenAIRE

    TELTEU CAMELIA ELIZA; BRĂNESCU EMILIA; BERGHEZAN AURELIA

    2014-01-01

    The floods are extreme hydrological events that require rigorous analysis to achieve structural and non – structural measures to mitigate their risk. This paper aims to analyze the floods’ potential in the Jiu River Catchment (the catchment area has 10131 km²). The main geographical factors which are favoring the floods production are the climatic conditions and the morphometric factors. The monthly and annual maximum discharge recorded at 18 hydrometric stations, have been analyzed for the i...

  11. Assessing the potential value of bridge monitoring systems

    OpenAIRE

    Vardanega, Paul; Webb, Graham; Fidler, Paul; Middleton, Campbell

    2016-01-01

    On-going developments in smart technologies such as wireless sensor networks, micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS), computer vision, fibre optics and advanced data interpretation techniques may revolutionise structural health monitoring (SHM). Dedicated SHM of bridge assets has the potential to produce valuable data-sets and provide owners and managers with information to aid with key questions such as: current performance, margins of safety, actual loading, stress history and risk of fati...

  12. Safety assessment of potential food ingredients in canine hepatocytes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Leshuai W; Koci, Juraj; Jeffery, Brett; Riviere, Jim E; Monteiro-Riviere, Nancy A

    2015-04-01

    This research aimed to develop in vitro methods to assess hazard of canine food ingredients. Canine hepatocytes were harvested and cell viability of clove-leaf oil (CLO), eugenol (EUG), lemongrass oil (LGO), guanosine monophosphate (GMP), inosine monophosphate (IMP), sorbose, ginger-root extract (GRE), cinnamon-bark oil (CBO), cinnamaldehyde (CINA), thymol oil (TO), thymol (THYM), and citric acid were assessed with positive controls: acetaminophen (APAP), aflatoxin B1 and xylitol. Molecular Toxicology PathwayFinder array (MTPF) analyzed toxicity mechanisms for LGO. LC50 for APAP was similar among human (3.45), rat (2.35), dog (4.26 mg/ml). Aflatoxin B1 had an LC50 of 4.43 (human), 5.78 (rat) and 6.05 (dog) µg/ml; xylitol did not decrease viability. LC50 of CLO (0.185 ± 0.075(SD)), EUG (0.165 ± 0.112), LGO (0.220 ± 0.012), GRE (1.54 ± 0.31) mg/ml; GMP (166.03 ± 41.83), GMP + IMP (208.67 ± 15.27) mM; CBO (0.08 ± 0.03), CINA (0.11 ± 0.01), TO (0.21 ± 0.03), THYM (0.05 ± 0.01), citric acid (1.58 ± 0.08) mg/ml, while sorbose was non-toxic. LGO induced upregulation of 16 and down-regulation of 24 genes, which CYP and heat shock most affected. These results suggest that in vitro assays such as this may be useful for hazard assessment of food ingredients for altered hepatic function. PMID:25660481

  13. Public Review Draft: A Method for Assessing Carbon Stocks, Carbon Sequestration, and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes in Ecosystems of the United States Under Present Conditions and Future Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Rob; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2010-01-01

    The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, authorizes the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation's ecosystems focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, shrub and grasslands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries), (2) an estimation of annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities), and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land use and land cover, and wildlfires. The purpose of this draft methodology for public review is to propose a technical plan to conduct the assessment. Within the methodology, the concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes used for the assessment follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess future potential conditions based on a set of projected scenarios. The scenario framework is constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with initial reference land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management scenarios. An additional three LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each

  14. Assessment of the phototoxic potential of cosmetic products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hans, Rajendra K; Agrawal, Neeraj; Verma, Kiran; Misra, Rajendra B; Ray, Ratan S; Farooq, Mohammad

    2008-05-01

    The cosmetics are nontoxic or less toxic in perse but photoactivation may then sensitize and could produce additional phototoxicity. Phototoxicity assessment of ten different lipsticks and eight facial creams was conducted. Results revealed that six lipsticks and five facial creams generated reactive oxygen species (ROS), produced haemolysis and caused lipid peroxidation in human erythrocytes (in vitro) under sunlight exposure. Seven creams and one lipstick were alkaline while one cream and two lipsticks were acidic. The test lipsticks and creams showed absorption in UV/visible range. The study demonstrated synergistic action of cosmetic products and sunlight. Therefore, sunlight exposure should be avoided after the use of photosensitive cosmetics. PMID:18282649

  15. Hurricane flood risk in New York City - a detailed risk assessment of future risks and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Moel, Hans; Lin, Ning; Emanuel, Kerry; Botzen, Wouter; Aerts, Jeroen

    2014-05-01

    Hurricane Irene in 2011 and hurricane Sandy in 2012 showed all too clearly how vulnerable New York City (NYC) and the east coast of continental USA is to the devastating effects of coastal flooding. Total repair and recovery costs caused by Sandy in the States of New Jersey and New York totaled around 60 billion. The wake of hurricane Sandy has seen a lively debate on how to cope with this now apparent flood risk, and how it may change in the future. In this research, we developed an integrated flood risk model to assess the flood risk to buildings and vehicles by combining more than 500 synthetic hurricane events with the Hazus-MH4 damage model. Risk is estimated on a refined spatial scale for the current situation, as well as for future conditions around 2050 and 2080 by including population growth and climate change. Climate change is included based on synthetic storms using boundary conditions of 4 different GCMs, representing the effect of sea-level rise as well as a possible increase in storm frequency. The effect of uncertainty in storm water levels and damage estimation is also illustrated. The model results are validated using observations of damage caused by Hurricane Sandy in the region, yielding good agreement, giving confidence in the capacities of the modeling framework. The model results illustrate the spatial extent of the flood risk in New York (at the census block level), yielding an aggregate of 71 million/year for buildings and vehicles (total risk including e.g. infrastructure would roughly be double). The population growth projected by the city will result in a moderate increase in risk (~17%). Climate change, on the other hand, will have a much more profound impact on risk in NYC. Sea-level rise will already have a considerable impact (+60% in 2050s; +150% in 2080s), but coupled with a possible increase in storm frequency, as present in two of the four GCMs, will make for a large increase (+440% in 2050s, +1160%). A future flood risk of up to

  16. The future of high energy gamma ray astronomy and its potential astrophysical implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fichtel, C. E.

    1982-01-01

    Future satellites should carry instruments having over an order of magnitude greater sensitivity than those flown thus far as well as improved energy and angular resolution. The information to be obtained from these experiments should greatly enhance knowledge of: the very energetic and nuclear processes associated with compact objects; the structure of our galaxy; the origin and dynamic pressure effects of the cosmic rays; the high energy particles and energetic processes in other galaxies; and the degree of matter-antimatter symmetry of the universe. The relevant aspects of extragalactic gamma ray phenomena are emphasized along with the instruments planned. The high energy gamma ray results of forthcoming programs such as GAMMA-1 and the Gamma Ray Observatory should justify even more sophisticated telescopes. These advanced instruments might be placed on the space station currently being considered by NASA.

  17. The carnivorous syndrome in Nepenthes pitcher plants: current state of knowledge and potential future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Jonathan A; Clarke, Charles M

    2010-06-01

    Nepenthes is the largest genus of pitcher plants, with its centre of diversity in SE Asia. The plants grow in substrates that are deficient in N and offset this deficiency by trapping animal prey, primarily arthropods. Recent research has provided new insights into the function of the pitchers, particularly with regard to prey tapping and retention. Species examined to date use combinations of wettable peristomes, wax layers and viscoelastic fluid to trap and retain prey. In many respects, this has redefined our understanding of the functioning of Nepenthes pitchers. In addition, recent research has shown that several Nepenthes species target specific groups of prey animals, or are even evolving away from a strictly carnivorous mode of operation. Future research into nutrient sequestration strategies and mechanisms of prey attraction would no doubt further enhance our knowledge of the ecology of this remarkable genus. PMID:21135573

  18. State Support for Clean Energy Deployment: Lessons Learned for Potential Future Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kubert, C.; Sinclair, M.

    2011-04-01

    Proposed federal clean energy initiatives and climate legislation have suggested significant increases to federal funding for clean energy deployment and investment. Many states and utilities have over a decade of experience and spend billions of public dollars every year to support EE/RE deployment through programs that reduce the cost of technologies, provide financing for EE/RE projects, offer technical assistance, and educate market participants. Meanwhile, constraints on public expenditures at all levels of government continue to call upon such programs to demonstrate their value. This report reviews the results of these programs and the specific financial incentives and financing tools used to encourage clean energy investment. Lessons from such programs could be used to inform the future application of EE/RE incentives and financing tools. These lessons learned apply to use of distributed resources and the historical focus of these EE/RE programs.

  19. State Support for Clean Energy Deployment. Lessons Learned for Potential Future Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kubert, Charles [Clean Energy States Alliance, Montpelier, VT (United States); Sinclair, Mark [Clean Energy States Alliance, Montpelier, VT (United States)

    2011-04-01

    Proposed federal clean energy initiatives and climate legislation have suggested significant increases to federal funding for clean energy deployment and investment. Many states and utilities have over a decade of experience and spend billions of public dollars every year to support EE/RE deployment through programs that reduce the cost of technologies, provide financing for EE/RE projects, offer technical assistance, and educate market participants. Meanwhile, constraints on public expenditures at all levels of government continue to call upon such programs to demonstrate their value. This report reviews the results of these programs and the specific financial incentives and financing tools used to encourage clean energy investment. Lessons from such programs could be used to inform the future application of EE/RE incentives and financing tools. These lessons learned apply to use of distributed resources and the historical focus of these EE/RE programs.

  20. Mountain Home Air Force Base, Idaho Geothermal Resource Assessment and Future Recommendations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joseph C. Armstrong; Robert P. Breckenridge; Dennis L. Nielson; John W. Shervais; Thomas R. Wood

    2013-03-01

    The U.S. Air Force is facing a number of challenges as it moves into the future, one of the biggest being how to provide safe and secure energy to support base operations. A team of scientists and engineers met at Mountain Home Air Force Base in early 2011 near Boise, Idaho, to discuss the possibility of exploring for geothermal resources under the base. The team identified that there was a reasonable potential for geothermal resources based on data from an existing well. In addition, a regional gravity map helped identify several possible locations for drilling a new well. The team identified several possible sources of funding for this well—the most logical being to use U.S. Department of Energy funds to drill the upper half of the well and U.S. Air Force funds to drill the bottom half of the well. The well was designed as a slimhole well in accordance with State of Idaho Department of Water Resources rules and regulations. Drilling operations commenced at the Mountain Home site in July of 2011 and were completed in January of 2012. Temperatures increased gradually, especially below a depth of 2000 ft. Temperatures increased more rapidly below a depth of 5500 ft. The bottom of the well is at 5976 ft, where a temperature of about 140°C was recorded. The well flowed artesian from a depth below 5600 ft, until it was plugged off with drilling mud. Core samples were collected from the well and are being analyzed to help understand permeability at depth. Additional tests using a televiewer system will be run to evaluate orientation and directions at fractures, especially in the production zone. A final report on the well exploitation will be forthcoming later this year. The Air Force will use it to evaluate the geothermal resource potential for future private development options at Mountain Home Air Force Base. In conclusion, Recommendation for follow-up efforts include the following:

  1. Potential Bias in Projecting Future Regional Megadrought Risk: Insights From A Global Data-Model Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.; Ault, T.; Cole, J. E.; Fasullo, J.; Loope, G. R.; Parsons, L. A.; Stevenson, S.

    2015-12-01

    Megadrought is one of the most significant and costly climate extremes, and one that stakeholders (e.g., water and other resource managers) the world over wish to understand better; in particular, they need estimates of the risk of severe droughts as a function of drought frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. In many dry-climate regions of the globe, megadrought is synonymous with multi-decadal drought. However, in other regions, megadrought can be defined as extended drought, mostly not seen in the period of instrumental observations, and that would have large impacts if it were to occur in the future. New and published paleoclimatic observations allow us to understand the spectrum of drought in many regions of the globe; droughts exceeding 50 years have occurred in recent Earth history in southwestern North America, sub-Saharan Africa, the Mediterranean and Australia, whereas shorter megadroughts have occurred in Monsoon Asia, Amazonia and elsewhere. Data-model comparisons for regions with sufficiently long (e.g., 1000-2000 years) records of observed hydroclimatic variability suggest that state-of-the-art models can provide realistic estimates of interannual to decadal drought risk, but underestimate the risk of megadrought. Likely reasons for this shortcoming are the lack of sufficient multi-decadal variability in simulations of the past and future, plus an underappreciated understanding about how temperature variability and land-surface feedbacks interact with hydrological and ecological drought, as well as the roles played by unusually wet hydroclimatic extremes (e.g., ENSO related) in ending droughts of long duration. Paleoclimatic records also provide the opportunity to estimate how much models underestimate megadrought risk as a function of locale, frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration; they also aid in providing stakeholders with bias-corrected estimates of megadrought risk.

  2. Assessment of Antiobesity Potential of Achyranthes aspera Linn. Seed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neerja Rani

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The present study was designed to evaluate the quality control parameters, quantitative phytochemical analysis (total phenols, total flavonoids, and total saponin content, and the antiobesity effect of ethanol extract of Achyranthes aspera Linn. seed (EAA by employing in vitro and in vivo models. In in vitro study, the inhibitory activity of EAA on pancreatic amylase and lipase was measured. The in vivo pancreatic lipase activity was evaluated by measurement of plasma triacylglycerol levels after oral administration of EAA along with lipid emulsion to Swiss albino mice. The EAA inhibited pancreatic amylase and lipase activity in vitro and elevations of plasma triacylglycerol level in mice. Furthermore, the antiobesity effect of EAA (900 mg/kg was assessed in mice fed a high-fat diet with or without EAA for 6 weeks. EAA significantly suppressed the increase in body, retroperitoneal adipose tissue, liver weights, and serum parameters, namely; total cholesterol, total triglyceride, and LDL-cholesterol level. The anti obesity effects of EAA in high-fat-diet-treated mice may be partly mediated through delaying the intestinal absorption of dietary fat by inhibiting pancreatic amylase and lipase activity. Histopathological effects of EAA on the liver of mice were also assessed.

  3. Assessment of Antiobesity Potential of Achyranthes aspera Linn. Seed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rani, Neerja; Sharma, Surendra Kumar; Vasudeva, Neeru

    2012-01-01

    The present study was designed to evaluate the quality control parameters, quantitative phytochemical analysis (total phenols, total flavonoids, and total saponin content), and the antiobesity effect of ethanol extract of Achyranthes aspera Linn. seed (EAA) by employing in vitro and in vivo models. In in vitro study, the inhibitory activity of EAA on pancreatic amylase and lipase was measured. The in vivo pancreatic lipase activity was evaluated by measurement of plasma triacylglycerol levels after oral administration of EAA along with lipid emulsion to Swiss albino mice. The EAA inhibited pancreatic amylase and lipase activity in vitro and elevations of plasma triacylglycerol level in mice. Furthermore, the antiobesity effect of EAA (900 mg/kg) was assessed in mice fed a high-fat diet with or without EAA for 6 weeks. EAA significantly suppressed the increase in body, retroperitoneal adipose tissue, liver weights, and serum parameters, namely; total cholesterol, total triglyceride, and LDL-cholesterol level. The anti obesity effects of EAA in high-fat-diet-treated mice may be partly mediated through delaying the intestinal absorption of dietary fat by inhibiting pancreatic amylase and lipase activity. Histopathological effects of EAA on the liver of mice were also assessed. PMID:22919417

  4. Current activities and future trends in reliability analysis and probabilistic safety assessment in Hungary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In Hungary reliability analysis (RA) and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants was initiated 3 years ago. First, computer codes for automatic fault tree analysis (CAT, PREP) and numerical evaluation (REMO, KITT1,2) were adapted. Two main case studies - detailed availability/reliability calculation of diesel sets and analysis of safety systems influencing event sequences induced by large LOCA - were performed. Input failure data were taken from publications, a need for failure and reliability data bank was revealed. Current and future activities involves: setup of national data bank for WWER-440 units; full-scope level-I PSA of PAKS NPP in Hungary; operational safety assessment of particular problems at PAKS NPP. In the present article the state of RA and PSA activities in Hungary, as well as the main objectives of ongoing work are described. A need for international cooperation (for unified data collection of WWER-440 units) and for IAEA support (within Interregional Program INT/9/063) is emphasized. (author)

  5. Macro-economic assessment of flood risk in Italy under current and future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrera, Lorenzo; Koks, Elco; Mysiak, Jaroslav; Aerts, Jeroen; Standardi, Gabriele

    2014-05-01

    This paper explores an integrated methodology for assessing direct and indirect costs of fluvial flooding to estimate current and future fluvial flood risk in Italy. Our methodology combines a Geographic Information System spatial approach, with a general economic equilibrium approach using a downscaled modified version of a Computable General Equilibrium model at NUTS2 scale. Given the level of uncertainty in the behavior of disaster-affected economies, the simulation considers a wide range of business recovery periods. We calculate expected annual losses for each NUTS2 region, and exceedence probability curves to determine probable maximum losses. Given a certain acceptable level of risk, we describe the conditions of flood protection and business recovery periods under which losses are contained within this limit. Because of the difference between direct costs, which are an overestimation of stock losses, and indirect costs, which represent the macro-economic effects, our results have different policy meanings. While the former is relevant for post-disaster recovery, the latter is more relevant for public policy issues, particularly for cost-benefit analysis and resilience assessment.

  6. NASA's past, current and potential future support in bringing climate projection information to the decision support level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, T. J.

    2015-12-01

    It is common that we use global climate models or Earth system models to perform climate projection into the future. Because of the long integration time and the tremendous computing resources required for such a projection, the model resolution is typically not at a spatial scale fine enough for climate assessment or decision support purposes. A number of "downscaling technologies" have been developed over the years to bring the climate projection information to the local level for management and policy decision support purposes. In the past couple of years, NASA supported a number of regional to local climate projection activities: NASA Climate Adaption Science Investigators focused on climate resilience at NASA center level, National Climate Assessment (NCA) Capacity Building focused on data sets and tools to support NCA, NCA Indicators focused on creating simple indicators specifically designed for decision support, Assessing the Fidelity of Dynamical Downscaling with the NASA Unifies-WRF Model focused on understanding the credibility of dynamical downscaling technique using a regional climate model. All of these projects have a component in creating or using downscaled climate information. With the consequence of climate change beginning to emerge, there is a continuous need to better quantify the quality of downscaled climate projections. In this talk I will give an overview on NASA's efforts to understand the various techniques, the limitations including the risks of using these techniques, and finally, I will provide a view on possible future researches in this area.

  7. DC potential drop calibration for fatigue crack growth assessment

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kotecký, Ondřej; Degallaix, S.; Polák, Jaroslav

    Brno : Ústav fyziky materiálů AV ČR, 2006 - (Dlouhý, I.; Švejcar, J.; Šob, M.; Strnadel, B.), s. 129-134 ISBN 80-239-8271-0. [Víceúrovňový design pokrokových materiálů /2./. Brno (CZ), 30.11.2006] R&D Projects: GA ČR GD106/05/H008 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20410507 Keywords : fatigue * crack * potential-drop Subject RIV: JL - Materials Fatigue, Friction Mechanics

  8. Assessing the cost saving potential of shared product architectures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Niels Henrik; Hansen, Christian Lindschou; Løkkegaard, Martin;

    2016-01-01

    This article presents a method for calculating cost savings of shared architectures in industrial companies called Architecture Mapping and Evaluation. The main contribution is an operational method to evaluate the cost potential and evaluate the number of product architectures in an industrial...... company. Experiences from the case company show it is possible to reduce the number of architectures with 60% which leads to significant reduction in direct material and labor costs. This can be achieved without compromising the market offerings of products. Experiences from the case study indicate cost...

  9. Preliminary Assessment of Geothermal Resource Potential at the UTTR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richard P. Smith, PhD., PG; Robert P. Breckenridge, PhD.; Thomas R. Wood, PhD.

    2011-06-01

    The purpose of this report is to summarize the current state of geologic knowledge concerning potential high-temperature geothermal development on the lands controlled by Hill Air Force Base (HAFB) at the Utah Testing and Training Range (UTTR) and the lands encompassed by the Dugway Proving Grounds (Dugway). This report is based on currently available published and publically available information. Most of the information presented here is purely geologic in nature. Therefore, the logistical issues (such as military exclusion areas, proximity to electrical infrastructure, and access) are additional considerations that are being addressed in a separate report that will be issued to HAFB by the SES corporation.

  10. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7–11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players’ potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player’s future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7–11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items ‘aiming at target’, ‘throwing a ball’, and ‘eye-hand coordination’ in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment’s outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be

  11. Modelling soil organic carbon in Danish agricultural soils suggests low potential for future carbon sequestration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taghizadeh-Toosi, Arezoo; Olesen, Jørgen Eivind

    2016-01-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) is in active exchange with the atmosphere. The amount of organic carbon (OC) input into the soil and SOC turnover rate are important for predicting the carbon (C) sequestration potential of soils subject to changes in land-use and climate. The C-TOOL model was developed to......, various agricultural management scenarios were considered including characteristic crop rotations with and without the presence of cover crops, and the application of organic amendments. We compared these simulated management effects with management effects estimated from Danish SOC monitoring network...... over the same period of time. The results of the C-TOOL simulations demonstrated that application of organic manure, use of cover crop, and converting the croplands to grassland had the potential to increase SOC in Danish mineral soils. The simulated data also suggested that C-TOOL gave a reasonably...

  12. Published assessments bearing on the future use of ceramic superconductors by the electric power sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giese, R.F.; Wolsky, A.M.

    1992-08-25

    Much has been written about ceramic superconductors since their discovery in 1986. Most of this writing reports and describes scientific research. However, some authors have sought to put this research in context: to assess where the field stands, what might be technically feasible, what might be economically feasible, and what potential impacts ceramic superconductors will bring to the electric power sector. This report`s purpose is to make the results of already published assessments readily available. To that end, this report lists and provides abstracts for various technical and economic assessments related to applications of High-Temperature Superconductors (HTS) to the electric power sector. Those studies deemed most important are identified and summarized. These assessments were identified by two means. First, members of the Executive Committee identified some reports as worthy of consideration and forwarded them to Argonne National Laboratory. Twelve assessments were selected. Each of these is listed and summarized in the following section. Second, a bibliographic search was performed on five databases: INSPEC, NTIS, COMPENDEX, Energy Science & Technology, and Electric Power Database. The search consisted of first selecting all papers related to High Temperature Superconductors. Then papers related to SMES, cables, generators, motors, fault current limiters, or electric utilities were selected. When suitable variants of the above terms were included, this resulted in a selection of 493 citations. These citations were subjected to review by the authors. A number of citations were determined to be inappropriate (e.g. a number referred to digital transmission lines for electronics and communications applications). The reduced list consisted of 200 entries. Each of these citations, with an abstract, is presented in the following sections.

  13. Published assessments bearing on the future use of ceramic superconductors by the electric power sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giese, R.F.; Wolsky, A.M.

    1992-08-25

    Much has been written about ceramic superconductors since their discovery in 1986. Most of this writing reports and describes scientific research. However, some authors have sought to put this research in context: to assess where the field stands, what might be technically feasible, what might be economically feasible, and what potential impacts ceramic superconductors will bring to the electric power sector. This report's purpose is to make the results of already published assessments readily available. To that end, this report lists and provides abstracts for various technical and economic assessments related to applications of High-Temperature Superconductors (HTS) to the electric power sector. Those studies deemed most important are identified and summarized. These assessments were identified by two means. First, members of the Executive Committee identified some reports as worthy of consideration and forwarded them to Argonne National Laboratory. Twelve assessments were selected. Each of these is listed and summarized in the following section. Second, a bibliographic search was performed on five databases: INSPEC, NTIS, COMPENDEX, Energy Science Technology, and Electric Power Database. The search consisted of first selecting all papers related to High Temperature Superconductors. Then papers related to SMES, cables, generators, motors, fault current limiters, or electric utilities were selected. When suitable variants of the above terms were included, this resulted in a selection of 493 citations. These citations were subjected to review by the authors. A number of citations were determined to be inappropriate (e.g. a number referred to digital transmission lines for electronics and communications applications). The reduced list consisted of 200 entries. Each of these citations, with an abstract, is presented in the following sections.

  14. Published assessments bearing on the future use of ceramic superconductors by the electric power sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Much has been written about ceramic superconductors since their discovery in 1986. Most of this writing reports and describes scientific research. However, some authors have sought to put this research in context: to assess where the field stands, what might be technically feasible, what might be economically feasible, and what potential impacts ceramic superconductors will bring to the electric power sector. This report's purpose is to make the results of already published assessments readily available. To that end, this report lists and provides abstracts for various technical and economic assessments related to applications of High-Temperature Superconductors (HTS) to the electric power sector. Those studies deemed most important are identified and summarized. These assessments were identified by two means. First, members of the Executive Committee identified some reports as worthy of consideration and forwarded them to Argonne National Laboratory. Twelve assessments were selected. Each of these is listed and summarized in the following section. Second, a bibliographic search was performed on five databases: INSPEC, NTIS, COMPENDEX, Energy Science ampersand Technology, and Electric Power Database. The search consisted of first selecting all papers related to High Temperature Superconductors. Then papers related to SMES, cables, generators, motors, fault current limiters, or electric utilities were selected. When suitable variants of the above terms were included, this resulted in a selection of 493 citations. These citations were subjected to review by the authors. A number of citations were determined to be inappropriate (e.g. a number referred to digital transmission lines for electronics and communications applications). The reduced list consisted of 200 entries. Each of these citations, with an abstract, is presented in the following sections

  15. Future extreme precipitation assessment in Western Norway – using a linear model approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. N. Caroletti

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The need for local assessments of precipitation has grown in recent years due to the increase in precipitation extremes and the widespread awareness about findings of the IPCC 2003 Report on climate change. General circulation models, the most commonly used tool for climate predictions, show an increase in precipitation due to an increase in greenhouse gases (Cubash and Meehl, 2001. It is suggested that changes in extreme precipitation are easier to detect and attribute to global warming than changes in mean annual precipitation (Groisman et al., 2005. However, because of their coarse resolution, the global models are not suited to local assessments. Thus, downscaling of data is required.

    A Linear Model (Smith and Barstad, 2004 is used to dynamically downscale orographic precipitation over Western Norway from twelve General Circulation Model simulations based on the A1B emissions scenario (IPCC, 2003. An assessment of the changes to future Orographic Precipitation (2046–2065 and 2081–2100 time periods versus the historical control period (1971–2000 is carried out. Results show an increased number of Orographic Precipitation days and an increased Orographic Precipitation intensity. Extreme precipitation events are up to 20% more intense than the 1971–2000 values. Extremes are defined by the exceedence of the 99%-ile threshold in the time slice. Using station-based observations from the control period, the results from downscaling can be used to generate simulated precipitation histograms at selected stations.

    The Linear Model approach also allows for simulated changes in precipitation to be disaggregated according to their causal source: (a the role of topography and (b changes to the amount of moisture delivery to the site. The latter can be additionaly separated into moisture content changes due to: (i temperature; (ii wind speed; (iii stability. An analysis of these results suggests a strong role for warming in

  16. Swedish coffee (Astragalus boeticus L.), a neglected coffee substitute with a past and a potential future

    OpenAIRE

    Prohens Tomás, Jaime; Andújar Pérez, Isabel; Vilanova Navarro, Santiago; Plazas Ávila, María de la O; Gramazio, Pietro; Prohens, R.; Herraiz García, Francisco Javier; De Ron, A. M.

    2014-01-01

    Swedish coffee (Astragalus boeticus) seeds have been used as a coffee substitute, in particular during the nineteenth century and in times of scarcity. A. boeticus is found in the wild in a wide range of environments in the Mediterranean and Middle Eastern regions and is able to grow in areas with low and irregular rainfall. It is well-adapted to cultivated and disturbed environments, has indehiscent pods and high yield potential, and is therefore pre-adapted to cultivation and domestication....

  17. Psychotherapy and recovery from schizophrenia: A review of potential applications and need for future study

    OpenAIRE

    Lysaker, Paul H.; Glynn, Shirley M.; Wilkniss, Sandra M.; Silverstein, Steven M.

    2010-01-01

    Recovery from schizophrenia has been conceptualized to involve not only symptom remission of symptoms and achievement of psychosocial milestones but also subjective changes in how persons appraise their lives and the extent to which they experience themselves as meaningful agents in the world. In this paper we review the potential of individual psychotherapy to address these more subjective aspects of recovery. Literature on the effectiveness of psychotherapy for persons with schizophrenia is...

  18. Trends and Future Potential of Payment for Ecosystem Services to Alleviate Rural Poverty in Developing Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Scherr, Sara J.; Milder, Jeffrey C.; Carina Bracer

    2010-01-01

    Payment for ecosystem services (PES) is a market-based approach to environmental management that compensates land stewards for ecosystem conservation and restoration. Because low-income households and communities control much of the ecologically sensitive land in developing countries, they potentially stand to gain from PES, as environmentally responsible stewardship is assigned a value by various actors in society. To date, however, instances of PES benefiting the poor have been limited main...

  19. Applying quantitative structure-activity relationship approaches to nanotoxicology: Current status and future potential

    OpenAIRE

    Winkler, David; Mombelli, Enrico; Pietroiusti, Antonio; TRAN C. Lang; Worth, Andrew; Fadeel, Bengt; MCCALL Maxine

    2013-01-01

    The potential (eco)toxicological hazard posed by engineered nanoparticles is a major scientific and societal concern since several industrial sectors are exploiting the innovative properties of nanostructures resulting in their large-scale production. Many consumer products contain nanomaterials and, given their complex life-cycle, it is essential to anticipate their (eco)toxicological properties in a fast and inexpensive way in order to mitigate adverse effects on human health and the enviro...

  20. Assessment of wind power potential at Hawksbay, Karachi Sindh, Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahnawaz Farhan Khahro

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Pakistan is facing serious energy crisis at present. The government is aiming to utilize the immense potential of renewable energy sources like: Solar, Wind, etc, in addition to intensify the conventional sources of energy to over the acute shortage of energy. Wind energy is the fastest-developing energy source worldwide. The aim of this paper is to explore and estimate the wind power potential of Hawksbay Karachi, one of the locations in southern part of Pakistan. Wind speed data (in meters per second from April 2009 to April 2011 at four different heights is measured. Wind power densities, frequency distribution, and Weibull distribution of wind speed are calculated in this study. This study also presents the analysis and comparison of 5 numerical methods to determine the Weibull scale and shape parameters for the available wind data. The estimated wind power to be generated through commercial wind turbine is also included. The yearly mean wind speed at Hawksbay, Karachi is 5.9m/s and has power density of 197W/m2 at 80m height with high power density during April to August. The estimated cost per kWh is US$0.0345. Therefore the site may be considered suitable for wind turbine applications.

  1. ASSESSMENT OF BIOTHERAPEUTIC POTENTIAL OF PIMENTA DIOICA (ALLSPICE LEAF EXTRACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr Pratima Khandelwal et al

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available All-spice (pimenta is one of the under-utilized resources available in the tropical regions of the globe. It is a variety of sweet pepper used as a spice and its leaves are used for traditional culinary purpose. Researchers have studied the antioxidant potentials of the berries of the plant, but no documented work is reported on its stem, leaf and roots for antimicrobial properties. Thus, the present investigation was carried out to access the antimicrobial and anti-oxidation potentials of leaf extracts using three solvent systems, (Aqueous, acetone and methanol. All solvent systems at different concentrations were evaluated for antibacterial, antifungal and reducing capacity against selected bacterial and fungal pathogens; zone of inhibition was exhibited by methanol leaf extracts in decreasing order for Escherichia coli, Bacillus cereus, Salmonella typhimurium, and Staphylococcus aureus. Lesser inhibitory zones were obtained by acetone leaf extracts, whereas, Klebsiella pneumonia and Pseudomonas aeruginosa were not inhibited by any extracts. Aqueous extract demonstrated no inhibitory activity against tested bacterial pathogens. All the three leaf extracts were found to be ineffective against fungal strains (Fusarium oxysporum, Aspergillus niger, Aspergillus flavus and Candida albicans tested. Protein content in each extract was determined and reducing capability was estimated which was found to be high in methanol and acetone extract whereas aqueous extract showed low reducing ability.

  2. An economic assessment of potential ethanol production pathways in Ireland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An economic assessment was conducted on five biomass-to-ethanol production pathways utilising the feedstock: wheat, triticale, sugarbeet, miscanthus and straw. The analysis includes the costs and margins for all the stakeholders along the economic chain. This analysis reveals that under current market situations in Ireland, the production of ethanol under the same tax regime as petrol makes it difficult to compete against that fuel, with tax breaks, however, it can compete against petrol. On the other hand, even under favourable tax breaks it will be difficult for indigenously produced ethanol to compete against cheaper sources of imported ethanol. Therefore, the current transport fuel market has no economic reason to consume indigenously produced ethanol made from the indigenously grown feedstock analysed at a price that reflects all the stakeholders' costs. To deliver a significant penetration of indigenous ethanol into the market would require some form of compulsory inclusion or else considerable financial supports to feedstock and ethanol producers. (author)

  3. An economic assessment of potential ethanol production pathways in Ireland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An economic assessment was conducted on five biomass-to-ethanol production pathways utilising the feedstock: wheat, triticale, sugarbeet, miscanthus and straw. The analysis includes the costs and margins for all the stakeholders along the economic chain. This analysis reveals that under current market situations in Ireland, the production of ethanol under the same tax regime as petrol makes it difficult to compete against that fuel, with tax breaks, however, it can compete against petrol. On the other hand, even under favourable tax breaks it will be difficult for indigenously produced ethanol to compete against cheaper sources of imported ethanol. Therefore, the current transport fuel market has no economic reason to consume indigenously produced ethanol made from the indigenously grown feedstock analysed at a price that reflects all the stakeholders' costs. To deliver a significant penetration of indigenous ethanol into the market would require some form of compulsory inclusion or else considerable financial supports to feedstock and ethanol producers.

  4. The use of GIS for assessing Rn risk potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper describes the use of geostatistical analysis and GIS techniques to assess gas emanation hazards. The Mt. Vulsini volcanic district was selected for this study because of the wide range of locally present natural phenomena which affect gas migration in the near surface. In addition the large number of soil gas samples that were collected in this area should allow for a calibration between the generated risk/hazard models and the measured distribution of toxic gas species at surface. The approach used during this study consisted of three general stages. First data was digitally organised into geognostic layers, then software functions in the GIS program 'ArcView' were used to compare and correlate these various layers (or 'themes'), and then finally the produced risk (hazard) map was compared with soil gas data in order to validate the model. (author)

  5. Potential for a hazardous geospheric response to projected future climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, B

    2010-05-28

    Periods of exceptional climate change in Earth history are associated with a dynamic response from the geosphere, involving enhanced levels of potentially hazardous geological and geomorphological activity. The response is expressed through the adjustment, modulation or triggering of a broad range of surface and crustal phenomena, including volcanic and seismic activity, submarine and subaerial landslides, tsunamis and landslide 'splash' waves, glacial outburst and rock-dam failure floods, debris flows and gas-hydrate destabilization. In relation to anthropogenic climate change, modelling studies and projection of current trends point towards increased risk in relation to a spectrum of geological and geomorphological hazards in a warmer world, while observations suggest that the ongoing rise in global average temperatures may already be eliciting a hazardous response from the geosphere. Here, the potential influences of anthropogenic warming are reviewed in relation to an array of geological and geomorphological hazards across a range of environmental settings. A programme of focused research is advocated in order to: (i) understand better those mechanisms by which contemporary climate change may drive hazardous geological and geomorphological activity; (ii) delineate those parts of the world that are most susceptible; and (iii) provide a more robust appreciation of potential impacts for society and infrastructure. PMID:20403831

  6. Optimal design of future electricity supply systems. An analysis of potential bottlenecks in NW-Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper analyses the potential bottlenecks that might emerge in the North-western European electricity supply system as a result of a number of (autonomous) long-term developments. The main long-term developments we identify are 1) a continuing increase in the demand for electricity, 2) a gradual shift from conventional electricity generation towards unconventional (green) generation, 3) a gradual shift from centralized generation towards decentralized generation and 4) a shift from national self-sufficient electricity supply systems towards a pan-European electricity system. Although it has been recognized that these developments might cause certain problems in some or more elements of the electricity supply chain, a coherent and comprehensive framework for the identification of these problems is lacking. More specific, governments and regulators seem to focus on certain parts of the electricity supply system separately, whereas certain interdependencies in the system have received relatively little attention. This paper presents such a framework and identifies some potential bottlenecks that receive relatively little attention from policy makers. These are 1) the increasing penetration of distributed generation, 2) an increasingly important role for demand response and 3) the lack of locational signals in the electricity supply system. The potential role of governments and markets in these issues is briefly explored. (Author)

  7. POTENTIAL WILD EDIBLE PLANT RESOURCES FROM MAHARASHTRA: FUTURE PROSPECTS FOR THEIR CONSERVATION AND IMPROVEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DSANJAYKUMAR R. RAHANGDALE1* AND SAVITA S. RAHANGDALE2

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: All the present day established crops are evolved in due course of time, through continuous efforts of human being for crop improvement via, cultivation, selection and breeding. Even today many plant resources from forests are being utilized in crop breeding as source of resistant genes against insect pests, fungal, bacterial and viral pathogens, adverse agro-climatic conditions, for quality improvement in terms of different proteins, vitamins and also appearance; thereby broadening the genetic base of cultivars. Many others, e.g., Caralluma adscendens (Roxb. R. Br., Chlorophytum borivilianum Sant. & Fernandez. and Jasminum malabaricum Wight are directly brought under cultivation from wilderness for food, medicine and ornamental purpose. Considering the potential and need for new resources, a study was undertaken to explore the diversity, plant parts used, process of preparation, scope and potential of the wild edible plant species from Maharashtra State. The results revealed that, about 172 wild species are used as food in Maharashtra. Out of these 63 species are commonly used by tribal and rural peoples, 35 species are occasionally used while remaining species are rarely consumed especially during scarcity of food due to drought or other reasons. Some of these have high scope and potential for their improvement and exploitation on commercial scale.

  8. Potential immunological markers for diagnosis and therapeutic assessment of toxocariasis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guita Rubinsky-Elefant

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available In human toxocariasis, there are few approaches using immunological markers for diagnosis and therapeutic assessment. An immunoblot (IB assay using excretory-secretory Toxocara canis antigen was standardized for monitoring IgG, IgE and IgA antibodies in 27 children with toxocariasis (23 visceral, three mixed visceral and ocular, and one ocular form for 22-116 months after chemotherapy. IB sensitivity was 100% for IgG antibodies to bands of molecular weight 29-38, 48-54, 95-116, 121-162, >205 kDa, 80.8% for IgE to 29-38, 48-54, 95-121, > 205 kDa, and 65.4% for IgA to 29-38, 48-54, 81-93 kDa. Candidates for diagnostic markers should be IgG antibodies to bands of low molecular weight (29-38 and 48-54 kDa. One group of patients presented the same antibody reactivity to all bands throughout the follow-up study; in the other group, antibodies decayed partially or completely to some or all bands, but these changes were not correlated with time after chemotherapy. Candidates for monitoring patients after chemotherapy may be IgG antibodies to > 205 kDa fractions, IgA to 29-38, 48-54, 81-93 kDa and IgE to 95-121 kDa. Further identification of antigen epitopes related to these markers will allow the development of sensitive and specific immunoassays for the diagnosis and therapeutic assessment of toxocariasis.

  9. An in vitro human skin test for assessing sensitization potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, S S; Wang, X N; Fielding, M; Kerry, A; Dickinson, I; Munuswamy, R; Kimber, I; Dickinson, A M

    2016-05-01

    Sensitization to chemicals resulting in an allergy is an important health issue. The current gold-standard method for identification and characterization of skin-sensitizing chemicals was the mouse local lymph node assay (LLNA). However, for a number of reasons there has been an increasing imperative to develop alternative approaches to hazard identification that do not require the use of animals. Here we describe a human in-vitro skin explant test for identification of sensitization hazards and the assessment of relative skin sensitizing potency. This method measures histological damage in human skin as a readout of the immune response induced by the test material. Using this approach we have measured responses to 44 chemicals including skin sensitizers, pre/pro-haptens, respiratory sensitizers, non-sensitizing chemicals (including skin-irritants) and previously misclassified compounds. Based on comparisons with the LLNA, the skin explant test gave 95% specificity, 95% sensitivity, 95% concordance with a correlation coefficient of 0.9. The same specificity and sensitivity were achieved for comparison of results with published human sensitization data with a correlation coefficient of 0.91. The test also successfully identified nickel sulphate as a human skin sensitizer, which was misclassified as negative in the LLNA. In addition, sensitizers and non-sensitizers identified as positive or negative by the skin explant test have induced high/low T cell proliferation and IFNγ production, respectively. Collectively, the data suggests the human in-vitro skin explant test could provide the basis for a novel approach for characterization of the sensitizing activity as a first step in the risk assessment process. PMID:26251951

  10. Fungal Peptaibiotics: Assessing Potential Meteoritic Amino Acid Contamination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsila, J. E.; Callahan, M. P.; Glavin, D. P.; Dworkin, J. P.; Bruckner, H.

    2010-01-01

    The presence of non-protein alpha-dialkyl-amino acids such as alpha-aminoisobutyric acid (alpha-A1B) and isovaline (Iva), which are relatively rare in the terrestrial biosphere, has long been used as an indication of the indigeneity of meteoritic amino acids, however, the discovery of alpha-AIB in peptides producers by a widespread group of filamentous fungi indicates the possibility of a terrestrial biotic source for the alpha-AIB observed in some meteorites. The alpha-AIB-containing peptides produced by these fungi are dubbed peptaibiotics. We measured the molecular distribution and stable carbon and nitrogen isotopic ratios for amino acids found in the total hydrolysates of four biologically synthesized peptaibiotics. We compared these aneasurenetts with those from the CM2 carbonaceous chondrite Murchison and from three Antarctic CR2 carbonaceous chondrites in order to understand the peptaibiotics as a potential source of meteoritic contamination.

  11. Assessment of genotoxic potential of Tamra Bhasma (incinerated copper

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swapnil Y Chaudhari

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The presence of metallic content in Ayurvedic drugs became an important burning issue in present days. The usefulness of Bhasmas (incinerated metals/minerals in therapeutics, their safety or toxicity is frequently being raised on different platforms. Considering this, there is a need to develop toxicity profiles of different metals/minerals. Tamra Bhasma (incinerated copper one such metallic formulation is widely used in cardiac and lipid disorders by Ayurvedic Physicians. The present study is aimed to evaluate the genotoxic potential of Tamra Bhasma. Materials and Methods: It was prepared as per classical guidelines and administered to Swiss albino mice for 14 consecutive days. Chromosomal aberration and sperm abnormality assay were studied. Results: All treated groups exhibited significant body weight gain in comparison to cyclophosphamide (CP group. Results revealed no structural deformity in above parameters in comparison to CP group. Conclusion: Reported data showed that both tested samples of Tamra Bhasma were not genotoxic and can be used safely.

  12. Assessment of the phytoextraction potential of high biomass crop plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Allica, Javier; Becerril, José M; Garbisu, Carlos

    2008-03-01

    A hydroponic screening method was used to identify high biomass crop plants with the ability to accumulate metals. Highest values of shoot accumulation were found in maize cv. Ranchero, rapeseed cv. Karat, and cardoon cv. Peralta for Pb (18 753 mg kg(-1)), Zn (10 916 mg kg(-1)), and Cd (242 mg kg(-1)), respectively. Subsequently, we tested the potential of these three cultivars for the phytoextraction of a metal spiked compost, finding out that, in cardoon and maize plants, increasing Zn and Cd concentrations led to lower values of root and shoot DW. By contrast, rapeseed shoot growth was not significantly affected by Cd concentration. Finally, a metal polluted soil was used to check these cultivars' phytoextraction capacity. Although the soil was phytotoxic enough to prevent the growth of cardoon and rapeseed plants, maize plants phytoextracted 3.7 mg Zn pot(-1). We concluded that the phytoextraction performance of cultivars varies depending on the screening method used. PMID:17644228

  13. Preliminary Assessment Of Space Infrared Experiment's (SIRE) Potential For Contamination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mah, D. L.; Muscari, J. A.

    1982-02-01

    This paper presents the results of a contamination analysis and computer modeling study performed for the Space Infrared Experiment (SIRE) using the Space Transport System (STS) Shuttle Orbiter as the launch vehicle for the proposed seven-day sortie mission. These results will provide an accurate description of the deposition levels on the telescope primary mirror and of the molecular number column density (NCD) along the telescope line-of-sight. The planned Helium Purge System was assumed not to be operating. The contribution to the contamination environment of any cargo element, other than SIRE and its pallet, was not considered in this study. The study considers five potential contamination sources, including the flash evaporator vent effluents and the vernier reaction control system (VCS) engines plume constituents.

  14. Potential applications of advanced remote handling and maintenance technology to future waste handling facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Consolidated Fuel Reprocessing Program (CFRP) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has been advancing the technology in remote handling and remote maintenance of in-cell systems planned for future US nuclear fuel reprocessing plants. Much of the experience and technology developed over the past decade in this endeavor are directly applicable to the in-cell systems being considered for the facilities of the Federal Waste Management System (FWMS). The ORNL developments are based on the application of teleoperated force-reflecting servomanipulators controlled by an operator completely removed from the hazardous environment. These developments address the nonrepetitive nature of remote maintenance in the unstructured environments encountered in a waste handling facility. Employing technological advancements in dexterous manipulators, as well as basic design guidelines that have been developed for remotely maintained equipment and processes, can increase operation and maintenance system capabilities, thereby allowing the attainment of two Federal Waste Management System major objectives: decreasing plant personnel radiation exposure and increasing plant availability by decreasing the mean-time-to-repair in-cell maintenance and process equipment

  15. The hydrogen economy for a sustainable future and the potential contribution of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Hydrogen Economy encompasses the production of hydrogen using a wide range of energy sources, its storage and distribution as an economic and universal energy carrier, and its end use by industry and individuals with negligible emission of pollutants and greenhouse gases. Hydrogen is an energy carrier not a primary energy source, just like electricity is an energy carrier. The advantages of hydrogen as a means of storage and distribution of energy, and the methods of production of hydrogen, are reviewed. Energy sources for hydrogen production include fossil fuels, renewables, hydropower and nuclear power. Hydrogen has many applications in industry, for residential use and for transport by air, land and sea. Fuel cells are showing great promise for conversion of hydrogen into electricity and their development and current status are discussed. Non-energy uses of hydrogen and the safety aspects of hydrogen are also considered. It is concluded that the Hydrogen Economy, especially if coupled to renewable and nuclear energy sources, is a technically viable and economic way of achieving greater energy diversity and security and a sustainable future in this century

  16. Assessment of underground water potential zones using modern geomatics technologies in Jhansi district, Uttar Pradesh, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, N. K.; Shukla, A. K.; Shukla, S.; Pandey, M.

    2014-11-01

    Ground water is a distinguished component of the hydrologic cycle. Surface water storage and ground water withdrawal are traditional engineering approaches which will continue to be followed in the future. The uncertainty about the occurrence, distribution and quality aspect of the ground water and the energy requirement for its withdrawal impose restriction on exploitation of ground water. The main objective of the study is assessment of underground water potential zones of Jhansi city and surrounding area, by preparing underground water potential zone map using Geographical Information System (GIS), remote sensing, and validation by underground water inventory mapping using GPS field survey done along the parts of National Highway 25 and 26 and some state highway passing through the study area. Study area covers an area of 1401 km2 and its perimeter is approximate 425 km. For this study Landsat TM (0.76-0.90 um) band data were acquired from GLCF website. Sensor spatial resolution is 30 m. Satellite image has become a standard tool aiding in the study of underground water. Extraction of different thematic layers like Land Use Land Cover (LULC), settlement, etc. can be done through unsupervised classification. The modern geometics technologies viz. remote sensing and GIS are used to produce the map that classifies the groundwater potential zone to a number of qualitative zone such as very high, high, moderate, low or very low. Thematic maps are prepared by visual interpretation of Survey of India topo-sheets and linearly enhanced Landsat TM satellite image on 1 : 50,000 scale using AutoCAD, ArcGIS 10.1 and ERDAS 11 software packages.

  17. Assessment of lung ventilation by MR imaging: current status and future perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kauczor, Hans-Ulrich; Hanke, Alexander [Klinik fuer Radiologie, Johannes Gutenberg-Universitaet Mainz, Langenbeckstrasse 1, 55131 Mainz (Germany); Beek, Edwin J.R. van [Unit of Academic Radiology, Royal Hallamshire Hospital, Glossop Road, Sheffield S10 2JF (United Kingdom)

    2002-08-01

    The aim of this paper is to review the present status of novel MRI techniques as a new important instrument for functional ventilation imaging. The current status and future perspectives in research and clinical applications are summarized. Morphological lung imaging is based on chest radiography and computed tomography, whereas scintigraphy is used for ventilation imaging. During recent years, MRI has emerged as a new means for functional imaging of ventilation. Aerosolized contrast agents and oxygen are used in proton imaging, whereas non-proton imaging relies on fluorine compounds, such as sulfur hexafluoride and perfluorcarbons, or on hyperpolarized noble gases, such as helium-3 or xenon-129. All the gases are administered as inhaled ''contrast agents'' for imaging of the airways and airspaces. In general, straightforward images demonstrate the homogeneity of ventilation in a breath-hold and allow for determination of ventilated lung. The different properties of the different compounds enable the measurement of additional functional parameters. They comprise airspace size, regional oxygen partial pressure, and analysis of ventilation distribution, ventilation/perfusion ratios, and gas exchange, including oxygen uptake. Novel MRI techniques provide the potential for functional imaging of ventilation. The next steps include definition of the value and the potential of the different contrast mechanisms as well as determination of the significance of the functional information with regard to physiological research and patient management in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and others. (orig.)

  18. Scenario Methodology for Modelling of Future Landscape Developments as Basis for Assessing Ecosystem Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Rosenberg

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystems of our intensively used European landscapes produce a variety of natural goods and services for the benefit of humankind, and secure the basics and quality of life. Because these ecosystems are still undergoing fundamental changes, the interest of the society is to know more about future developments and their ecological impacts. To describe and analyze these changes, scenarios can be developed and an assessment of the ecological changes can be carried out subsequently. In the project „Landscape Saxony 2050“; a methodology for the construction of exploratory scenarios was worked out. The presented methodology provides a possibility to identify the driving forces (socio-cultural, economic and ecological conditions of the landscape development. It allows to indicate possible future paths which lead to a change of structures and processes in the landscape and can influence the capability to provide ecosystem services. One essential component of the applied technique is that an approach for the assessment of the effects of the landscape changes on ecosystem services is integrated into the developed scenario methodology. Another is, that the methodology is strong designed as participatory, i.e. stakeholders are integrated actively. The method is a seven phase model which provides the option for the integration of the stakeholders‘ participation at all levels of scenario development. The scenario framework was applied to the district of Görlitz, an area of 2100 sq km located at the eastern border of Germany. The region is affected by strong demographic as well as economic changes. The core issue focused on the examination of landscape change in terms of biodiversity. Together with stakeholders, a trend scenario and two alternative scenarios were developed. The changes of the landscape structure are represented in story lines, maps and tables. On basis of the driving forces of the issue areas „cultural / social values“ and

  19. Assessing the potential for luminescence dating of basalts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsukamoto, S.; Duller, G.A.T.; Wintle, A.G.; Muhs, D.

    2011-01-01

    The possibility of dating basalt using luminescence was tested on four samples with independent age control from Cima volcanic field, California, with the ultimate aim of assessing whether the technique could be used to date sediments on the surface of Mars. Previous analysis of these samples had demonstrated that the infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) signal is most suitable for dating as it showed the lowest fading rate among various luminescence signals. In this study, changes in equivalent dose as a function of preheat are described. The ages for the two youngest Cima samples agree with the independent ages based on cosmogenic nuclide measurements (12.0 ?? 0.8 ka). In the two older samples (dated to 320 and 580 ka by K-Ar), the luminescence behaviour is more complex and the form of the IRSL decay curve is seen to vary with dose. Mathematical fitting is used to isolate two components and their intensities are used to produce dose response curves. The slower component yields a larger equivalent dose. However, even using this component and after correction for fading, the ages obtained for the older samples are younger than the K-Ar ages. ?? 2010 Elsevier B.V.

  20. Assessment of potential ORNL contributions to supply of molybdenum-99

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The most widely used, and probably the most important, single radioisotope in commerce is 99Mo. Although the present supply is adequate, there are many vulnerabilities in the supply picture. Resources available at ORNL could be applied to help ensure the continued availability of this critically needed radioisotope. This assessment considers the ways in which ORNL might participate in DOE efforts to develop and maintain a domestic source of 99Mo for medical needs. The primary recommendation presented here is that ORNL obtain DOE support for development of an improved method for providing 99Mo to the user community. Specifically, development and demonstration of a system based on irradiation of enriched stable 98Mo, as opposed to fission of 235U, is recommended. Such a system would (1) alleviate the need for using highly enriched uranium as target material (nonproliferation and criticality safety concerns); (2) alleviate the need to produce a large volume of unwanted fission product wastes (safety and cost concerns); (3) promote the need for enriched 98Mo, which can be produced in the ORNL calutrons or plasma separation equipment; and (4) promote the need for a high-flux reactor, such as the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR)

  1. Determination of Suitable Areas for the Generation of Wind Energy in Germany: Potential Areas of the Present and Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerie Blankenhorn

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Shortly after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in 2011, the Federal Government of Germany decided to change the structure of the country’s energy supply system by ending nuclear energy conversion and strongly promoting the development of renewable energies. In order to politically set the course for sustainable energy supply in this time of transition, it is important to analyze the factors influencing the future development of renewable energies. This work contributes to this purpose in the field of onshore wind electricity generation by displaying the temporal development of areas suitable for wind energy use. The availability of such areas is crucial to the extension of sites for wind energy plants. In our approach, the current potential area is determined by excluding areas unsuitable for this kind of electricity generation. For the determination of potential areas of the future, assumptions are made based on the expansion of settlement and traffic areas, and the occupation of protection areas. According to various scenarios, a decline of potential areas between 3% and 8% between 2011 and 2030 is indicated.

  2. An assessment of uncertainties and limitations in simulating tropical cyclone climatology and future changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki-Parker, Asuka

    2011-07-01

    The recent elevated North Atlantic hurricane activity has generated considerable interests in the interaction between tropical cyclones (TCs) and climate change. The possible connection between TCs and the changing climate has been indicated by observational studies based on historical TC records; they indicate emerging trends in TC frequency and intensity in some TC basins, but the detection of trends has been hotly debated due to TC track data issues. Dynamical climate modeling has also been applied to the problem, but brings its own set of limitations owing to limited model resolution and uncertainties. The final goal of this study is to project the future changes of North Atlantic TC behavior with global warming for the next 50 years using the Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM). Throughout the course of reaching this goal, various uncertainties and limitations in simulating TCs by the NRCM are identified and explored. First we examine the TC tracking algorithm to detect and track simulated TCs from model output. The criteria and thresholds used in the tracking algorithm control the simulated TC climatology, making it difficult to objectively assess the model's ability in simulating TC climatology. Existing tracking algorithms used by previous studies are surveyed and it is found that the criteria and thresholds are very diverse. Sensitivity of varying criteria and thresholds in TC tracking algorithm to simulated TC climatology is very high, especially with the intensity and duration thresholds. It is found that the commonly used criteria may not be strict enough to filter out intense extratropical systems and hybrid systems. We propose that a better distinction between TCs and other low-pressure systems can be achieved by adding the Cyclone Phase technique. Two sets of NRCM simulations are presented in this dissertation: One in the hindcasting mode, and the other with forcing from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) to project into the future with

  3. Challenges and potentials in using alternative landscape futures during climate change: A literature review and survey study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Rastandeh

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the feasibility of applying alternative futures and scenario analysis in landscape planning during climate change to provide a wider perspective and deeper understanding of this approach for better use and more effective application in the future. The study consists of a literature review and an analysis of recent applied projects carried out worldwide. In addition, an electronic survey was conducted from March to September 2014 to examine viewpoints on the use and application of this approach with reference to climate-change impacts. The survey participants were a group of highly experienced researchers from eighteen countries involved in at least one applied project since 2000 relating to this topic. After analysis of more than forty applied projects, the survey results were incorporated into the analysis to create a comprehensive picture regarding the potentials and limitations of alternative futures and scenario analysis in landscape planning with particular attention to climate change. The findings show that this method is one of the most effective decision-making approaches for adopting landscape policies where landscapes change rapidly under the pressure of urbanisation and climate change. Nevertheless, there is a gap between the advances offered by the approach in various dimensions and the complexity of patterns, uncertainties and upheavals in landscapes due to climate-change impacts in the urbanising world. The research indicates that the approach opens up a great opportunity for decision-makers to expand their perspective and adopt appropriate landscape policies before reaching a point of no return from the sustainability point of view. Meanwhile, there are challenges and barriers in the application of alternative futures and scenario analysis for envisioning the landscapes influenced by climate change and urbanisation that should be pushed back. Although informative, this research raises new questions about this

  4. Remote coral reefs can sustain high growth potential and may match future sea-level trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Chris T; Murphy, Gary N; Graham, Nicholas A J; Wilson, Shaun K; Januchowski-Hartley, Fraser A; East, Holly K

    2015-01-01

    Climate-induced disturbances are contributing to rapid, global-scale changes in coral reef ecology. As a consequence, reef carbonate budgets are declining, threatening reef growth potential and thus capacity to track rising sea-levels. Whether disturbed reefs can recover their growth potential and how rapidly, are thus critical research questions. Here we address these questions by measuring the carbonate budgets of 28 reefs across the Chagos Archipelago (Indian Ocean) which, while geographically remote and largely isolated from compounding human impacts, experienced severe (>90%) coral mortality during the 1998 warming event. Coral communities on most reefs recovered rapidly and we show that carbonate budgets in 2015 average +3.7 G (G = kg CaCO3 m(-2) yr(-1)). Most significantly the production rates on Acropora-dominated reefs, the corals most severely impacted in 1998, averaged +8.4 G by 2015, comparable with estimates under pre-human (Holocene) disturbance conditions. These positive budgets are reflected in high reef growth rates (4.2 mm yr(-1)) on Acropora-dominated reefs, demonstrating that carbonate budgets on these remote reefs have recovered rapidly from major climate-driven disturbances. Critically, these reefs retain the capacity to grow at rates exceeding measured regional mid-late Holocene and 20th century sea-level rise, and close to IPCC sea-level rise projections through to 2100. PMID:26669758

  5. Usefulness of brain atlases in neuroradiology: Current status and future potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowinski, Wieslaw L

    2016-08-01

    Human brain atlases, although prevalent in medical education and stereotactic and functional neurosurgery, are not yet applied practically in neuroradiology. In a step towards introducing brain atlases to neuroradiology, we discuss nine different situations of potential atlas use: (1) to support interpretation of brain scans with clearly visible structures (to increase confidence of non-neuroradiologists); (2) to delineate and label scans of low anatomical content (with indiscernible or poorly visible anatomy); (3) to assist in generating the structured report; (4) to assist in interpreting small deep lesions, since an atlas's anatomical parcellation is higher than that of the interpreted scan; (5) to approximate distorted due to pathology (and unknown to the interpreter) anatomy and label it; (6) to cope with data explosion; (7) to assist in the interpretation of functional scans (to label the activation foci with the underlying anatomy and Brodmann's areas); (8) to support ischemic stroke image handling by means of atlases of anatomy and blood supply territories; and (9) to communicate image interpretation results (diagnosis) to others. The usefulness of the atlas for automatic structure identification, localisation, delineation, labelling and quantification, as well as for reporting and communication, potentially increases the interpreter's efficiency and confidence, as well as expedites image interpretation. PMID:27154190

  6. Assessing the potential of renewable energy sources in Turkey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evrendilek, F. [Mustafa Kemal Univ., Antakya-Hatay (Turkey). Faculty of Agriculture; Ertekin, C. [Akdeniz Univ., Antalya (Turkey). Faculty of Agriculture

    2003-12-01

    To meet Turkey's growing energy demand, the installed electric power capacity of 27.8 GW in 2001 has to be doubled by 2010 and increased fourfold by 2020. The difference between Turkey's total primary energy supply (TPES) from its own sources and total final consumption (TFC) is projected to grow from 1 quad (1.06-2.06) in 1999 to 5.71 quads (2.79-8.5) in 2020 (1 QUAD=293.071 TWh). Turkey's limited amount of fossil fuels has a present average ratio of proved reserves of 97.38 quads to production rate of 3.2 quads yr{sup -1} of about 30 years. Turkey's reliance on fossil fuel-based energy systems to meet the growing demand is most likely to exacerbate the issues of energy insecurity, national environmental degradation, and global climate change in increasing proportions. Economically-feasible renewable energy potential in Turkey is estimated at a total of ca. 1.69 quads yr{sup -1} (495.4 TWh yr{sup -1}) with the potential for 0.67 quads yr{sup -1} (196.7 TWh yr{sup -1}) of biomass energy, 0.42 quads yr{sup -1} (124 TWh yr{sup -1}) of hydropower. 0.35 quads yr{sup -1} (102.3 TWh yr{sup -1}) of solar energy, 0.17 quads yr{sup -1} (50 TWh yr{sup -1}) of wind energy, and 0.08 quads yr{sup -1} (22.4 TWh yr{sup -1}) of geothermal energy. Pursuit and implementation of sustainability-based energy policy could provide about 90 and 35% of Turkey's total energy supply and consumption projected in 2010, respectively. Utilization of renewable energy technologies for electricity generation would necessitate about 23.2 Mha (29.8%) of Turkey's land resources. (author)

  7. Potential new CD metrology metric combined with data fusion for future node production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foucher, J.; Hazart, J.; Griesbach Schuch Figueiro, N.

    2012-03-01

    Introduction of new material stacks, more sophisticated design rules and complex 3D architectures in semiconductor technology has led to major metrology challenges by posing stringent measurement precision and accuracy requirements for various critical dimensions (CD), feature shape and profile. Current CD metrology techniques being used in development and production such as CD-SEM, scatterometry and CDAFM, individually have intrinsic limitations that must be overcome. The approach of hybrid automated metrology seems necessary. Using multiple tools in unison is an adequate solution when adding their respective strengths to overcome individual limitations. Such solution will give the industry a better metrology solution than the conventional approach. Nevertheless, this is not enough since the industry is requested for 2D and 3D profiles information. Indeed, CD, height and/or Sidewall angle are information which is limited for future nodes production. Full profile information is necessary. In this paper, the first part will be dedicated to the introduction of contour object as a new standard for the semiconductor industry. This metric will take into account all pattern's profile information in order to overcome the limitations of simple CD and/or SWA information. The second part will present and discuss results concerning data fusion and its application to hybrid metrology. We will illustrate hybrid metrology with an application to CD-SEM enhancement with a reference technique such as the AFM3D or TEM technology. We will show that it could be possible to improve RMS error of CD-SEM by a factor of 78%. We think that such trend can be extended to all microelectronic levels in IC manufacturing and subsequently significantly reduce cycle time and improve production yield through easier hotspot detection.

  8. Regional maps of occupational heat exposure: past, present, and potential future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tord Kjellstrom

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: An important feature of climate change is increasing human heat exposure in workplaces without cooling systems in tropical and subtropical countries. Detailed gridded heat exposure maps will provide essential information for public health authorities. Objectives: To develop and test methods for calculating occupational heat exposures and present results in easily interpreted maps. Design: Published formulas for a common occupational heat exposure index, the WBGT (Wet Bulb Globe Temperature, were used in combination with global gridded climate data to calculate heat exposure in 0.58 grid squares. Monthly averages of daily maximum temperatures, as indicators of typical temperatures during the hottest part of the day, and corresponding water vapour pressures produced estimates of monthly WBGT indoors (without cooling systems or outdoors in the shade. Results: The maps show the WBGT within four hot regions of the world during the three hottest months in 1975 and 2000: Australia, South Asia, Southern Africa, Central America, and southern US. Between 1975 and 2000 a WBGT increase of 0.5–1°C was common and the maps show clear decreases in some places. The time trends fit with the development of global climate change. The high WBGT values (particularly in South Asia already cause excessive occupational heat exposures during the three hottest months. If continued climate change increases WBGT by 3°C, our maps identify areas where occupational heat stress in non-cooled workplaces will be extreme. Conclusions: The mapping method provides a rapid visual impression of occupational heat exposures in large regions of the world. The local changes in WBGT between 1975 and 2000 fit with the global climate change trends. Future increases of WBGT may create extreme heat exposure situations in large areas of the world.

  9. In vivo confocal microscopy for the oral cavity: Current state of the field and future potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maher, N G; Collgros, H; Uribe, P; Ch'ng, S; Rajadhyaksha, M; Guitera, P

    2016-03-01

    Confocal microscopy (CM) has been shown to correlate with oral mucosal histopathology in vivo. The purposes of this review are to summarize what we know so far about in vivo CM applications for oral mucosal pathologies, to highlight some current developments with CM devices relevant for oral applications, and to formulate where in vivo CM could hold further application for oral mucosal diagnosis and management. Ovid Medline® and/or Google® searches were performed using the terms 'microscopy, confocal', 'mouth neoplasms', 'mouth mucosa', 'leukoplakia, oral', 'oral lichen planus', 'gingiva', 'cheilitis', 'taste', 'inflammatory oral confocal', 'mucosal confocal' and 'confocal squamous cell oral'. In summary, inclusion criteria were in vivo use of any type of CM for the human oral mucosa and studies on normal or pathological oral mucosa. Experimental studies attempting to identify proteins of interest and microorganisms were excluded. In total 25 relevant articles were found, covering 8 main topics, including normal oral mucosal features (n=15), oral dysplasia or neoplasia (n=7), inflamed oral mucosa (n=3), taste impairment (n=3), oral autoimmune conditions (n=2), pigmented oral pathology/melanoma (n=1), delayed type hypersensitivity (n=1), and cheilitis glandularis (n=1). The evidence for using in vivo CM in these conditions is poor, as it is limited to mainly small descriptive studies. Current device developments for oral CM include improved probe design. The authors propose that future applications for in vivo oral CM may include burning mouth syndrome, intra-operative mapping for cancer surgery, and monitoring and targeted biopsies within field cancerization. PMID:26786962

  10. Assessment of the phytoextraction potential of high biomass crop plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A hydroponic screening method was used to identify high biomass crop plants with the ability to accumulate metals. Highest values of shoot accumulation were found in maize cv. Ranchero, rapeseed cv. Karat, and cardoon cv. Peralta for Pb (18 753 mg kg-1), Zn (10 916 mg kg-1), and Cd (242 mg kg-1), respectively. Subsequently, we tested the potential of these three cultivars for the phytoextraction of a metal spiked compost, finding out that, in cardoon and maize plants, increasing Zn and Cd concentrations led to lower values of root and shoot DW. By contrast, rapeseed shoot growth was not significantly affected by Cd concentration. Finally, a metal polluted soil was used to check these cultivars' phytoextraction capacity. Although the soil was phytotoxic enough to prevent the growth of cardoon and rapeseed plants, maize plants phytoextracted 3.7 mg Zn pot-1. We concluded that the phytoextraction performance of cultivars varies depending on the screening method used. - The phytoextraction performance of cultivars varies significantly depending on the screening method used

  11. Assessment of flavaglines as potential chikungunya virus entry inhibitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wintachai, Phitchayapak; Thuaud, Frédéric; Basmadjian, Christine; Roytrakul, Sittiruk; Ubol, Sukathida; Désaubry, Laurent; Smith, Duncan R

    2015-03-01

    Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a re-emerging mosquito-borne alphavirus that recently caused large epidemics in islands in, and countries around, the Indian Ocean. There is currently no specific drug for therapeutic treatment or for use as a prophylactic agent against infection and no commercially available vaccine. Prohibitin has been identified as a receptor protein used by chikungunya virus to enter mammalian cells. Recently, synthetic sulfonyl amidines and flavaglines (FLs), a class of naturally occurring plant compounds with potent anti-cancer and cytoprotective and neuroprotective activities, have been shown to interact directly with prohibitin. This study therefore sought to determine whether three prohibitin ligands (sulfonyl amidine 1 m and the flavaglines FL3 and FL23) were able to inhibit CHIKV infection of mammalian Hek293T/17 cells. All three compounds inhibited infection and reduced virus production when cells were treated before infection but not when added after infection. Pretreatment of cells for only 15 minutes prior to infection followed by washing out of the compound resulted in significant inhibition of entry and virus production. These results suggest that further investigation of prohibitin ligands as potential Chikungunya virus entry inhibitors is warranted. PMID:25643977

  12. Assessment of the phytoextraction potential of high biomass crop plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hernandez-Allica, Javier [NEIKER-tecnalia, Basque Institute of Agricultural Research and Development, c/Berreaga 1, E-48160 Derio (Spain); Becerril, Jose M. [Department of Plant Biology and Ecology, University of the Basque Country, P.O. Box 644, E-48080 Bilbao (Spain); Garbisu, Carlos [NEIKER-tecnalia, Basque Institute of Agricultural Research and Development, c/Berreaga 1, E-48160 Derio (Spain)], E-mail: cgarbisu@neiker.net

    2008-03-15

    A hydroponic screening method was used to identify high biomass crop plants with the ability to accumulate metals. Highest values of shoot accumulation were found in maize cv. Ranchero, rapeseed cv. Karat, and cardoon cv. Peralta for Pb (18 753 mg kg{sup -1}), Zn (10 916 mg kg{sup -1}), and Cd (242 mg kg{sup -1}), respectively. Subsequently, we tested the potential of these three cultivars for the phytoextraction of a metal spiked compost, finding out that, in cardoon and maize plants, increasing Zn and Cd concentrations led to lower values of root and shoot DW. By contrast, rapeseed shoot growth was not significantly affected by Cd concentration. Finally, a metal polluted soil was used to check these cultivars' phytoextraction capacity. Although the soil was phytotoxic enough to prevent the growth of cardoon and rapeseed plants, maize plants phytoextracted 3.7 mg Zn pot{sup -1}. We concluded that the phytoextraction performance of cultivars varies depending on the screening method used. - The phytoextraction performance of cultivars varies significantly depending on the screening method used.

  13. Assessing the economic wind power potential in Austria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the European Union, electricity production from wind energy is projected to increase by approximately 16% until 2020. The Austrian energy plan aims at increasing the currently installed wind power capacity from approximately 1 GW to 3 GW until 2020 including an additional capacity of 700 MW until 2015. The aim of this analysis is to assess economically viable wind turbine sites under current feed-in tariffs considering constraints imposed by infrastructure, the natural environment and ecological preservation zones in Austria. We analyze whether the policy target of installing an additional wind power capacity of 700 MW until 2015 is attainable under current legislation and developed a GIS based decision system for wind turbine site selection.Results show that the current feed-in tariff of 9.7 ct kW h−1 may trigger an additional installation of 3544 MW. The current feed-in tariff can therefore be considered too high as wind power deployment would exceed the target by far. Our results indicate that the targets may be attained more cost-effectively by applying a lower feed-in tariff of 9.1 ct kW h−1. Thus, windfall profits at favorable sites and deadweight losses of policy intervention can be minimized while still guaranteeing the deployment of additional wind power capacities. - Highlight: ► Wind supply curves with high spatial resolution for whole Austria are derived. ► Current feed-in tariff higher than necessary to attain targets. Previous feed-in tariffs were too low to achieve targets. ► Current support scheme leads to high social welfare losses. ► Policy makers face high information asymmetry when setting feed-in tariffs.

  14. Vaccines for TB: Lessons from the Past Translating into Future Potentials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gee Jun Tye

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Development of vaccines for infectious diseases has come a long way with recent advancements in adjuvant developments and discovery of new antigens that are capable of eliciting strong immunological responses for sterile eradication of disease. Tuberculosis (TB that kills nearly 2 million of the population every year is also one of the highlights of the recent developments. The availability or not of diagnostic methods for infection has implications for the control of the disease by the health systems but is not related to the immune surveillance, a phenomenon derived from the interaction between the bacteria and their host. Here, we will review the immunology of TB and current vaccine candidates for TB. Current strategies of developing new vaccines against TB will also be reviewed in order to further discuss new insights into immunotherapeutic approaches involving adjuvant and antigens combinations that might be of potential for the control of TB.

  15. Estimating the future ice sheet hydropower potential in Paakitsoq, Ilulissat, West Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahlstrøm, Andreas P.; Mottram, R.H.; Nielsen, C.; Reeh, Niels; Andersen, S.B.; Kristensen, Steen Savstrup; Christensen, Erik Lintz; Stenseng, Lars; Forsberg, René

    Meltwater running off the Greenland ice sheet yield significant hydropower potentials in catchments bordering the ice sheet, especially in West and South Greenland. Hydropower has been chosen as the most desired source of energy by the Greenland Home Rule, but recent changes in the Greenland ice...... sheet has emphasized the risk of sudden changes in catchment supply. In this study, we present a thorough investigation of hydropower feasibility at the Paakitsoq basin, near Ilulissat in West Greenland. The catchment is completely dominated by the Greenland ice sheet which provides large quantities of...... meltwater during the summer season. However, geometrical changes in the ice sheet, for example due to a retreat or an advance of the ice sheet margin, could change the hydrological catchment within the ice sheet. Such a change would have a devastating economical impact as a hydropower plant is a significant...

  16. Floating Offshore Wind in Hawaii: Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts from Three Future Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jimenez, Tony; Keyser, David; Tegen, Suzanne

    2016-04-18

    Construction of the first offshore wind power plant in the United States began in 2015, off the coast of Rhode Island, using fixed platform structures that are appropriate for shallow seafloors, like those located off the East Coast and mid-Atlantic. However, floating platforms, which have yet to be deployed commercially, will likely need to be anchored to the deeper seafloor if deployed in Hawaiian waters. To analyze the employment and economic potential for floating offshore wind off Hawaii's coasts, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to analyze two hypothetical deployment scenarios for Hawaii: 400 MW of offshore wind by 2050 and 800 MW of offshore wind by 2050. The results of this analysis can be used to better understand the general scale of economic opportunities that could result from offshore wind development.

  17. Present and Potential Future Distribution of Common Vampire Bats in the Americas and the Associated Risk to Cattle

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Dana N.; Papeş, Monica; Van Den Bussche, Ronald A.

    2012-01-01

    Success of the cattle industry in Latin America is impeded by the common vampire bat, Desmodus rotundus, through decreases in milk production and mass gain and increased risk of secondary infection and rabies. We used ecological niche modeling to predict the current potential distribution of D. rotundus and the future distribution of the species for the years 2030, 2050, and 2080 based on the A2, A1B, and B1 climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We then combine...

  18. Potential performance for Pb-Pb, p -Pb, and p -p collisions in a future circular collider

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaumann, Michaela

    2015-09-01

    The hadron collider studied in the future circular collider (FCC) project could operate with protons and lead ions in similar operation modes as the LHC. In this paper the potential performances in lead-lead, proton-lead, and proton-proton collisions are investigated. Based on average lattice parameters, the strengths of intrabeam scattering and radiation damping are evaluated and their effect on the beam and luminosity evolution is presented. Estimates for the integrated luminosity per fill and per run are given, depending on the turnaround time. Moreover, the beam-beam tune shift and bound free pair production losses in heavy-ion operation are addressed.

  19. High organic containing tanks: Assessing the hazard potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eight Hanford Site tanks contain organic chemicals at concentrations believed to be greater than 10 mole percent sodium acetate equivalent mixed with the oxidizing salts sodium nitrate/sodium nitrite. Also, three of the hydrogen and ferrocyanide tanks appear on the organic tank list. Concentrations of organics that may be present in some tanks could cause an exothermic reaction given a sufficient driving force, such as high temperatures. However, the difference between ignition temperatures and actual tank temperatures measured is so large that the probability of such a reaction is considered very low. The consequences of the postulated reaction are about the same as the scenarios for an explosion in a ''burping'' hydrogen tank. Although work on this issue is just beginning, consideration of hazards associated with heating nitrate-nitrite mixtures containing organic materials is an integral part of both the hydrogen and ferrocyanide tank efforts. High concentrations of organic compounds have been inferred (from tank transfer, flow sheet records, and limited analytical data) in eight single-shell tanks. Many organic chemicals, if present in concentrations above 10 dry weight percent (sodium acetate equivalent), have the potential to react with nitrate-nitrites constituents at temperatures above 200 degree C (392 degree F) in an exothermic manner. The concentrations of organic materials in the listed single-shell tanks, and their chemical identity, is not accurately known at present. A tank sampling program has been planned to provide more information on the contents of these tanks and to serve as a basis for laboratory testing and safety evaluations. 2 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  20. The impact of MFG-E8 in chronic pancreatitis: potential for future immunotherapy?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D’Haese Jan G

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The glycoprotein MFG-E8 mediates phagocytic clearance of apoptotic cells and influences the pathogenesis and progression of inflammatory diseases. MFG-E8 was shown to attenuate the progression of inflammation and to improve survival in septic rats. Accumulating evidence suggests an immunomodulatory link between MFG-E8 and the pro-inflammatory chemokine fractalkine, which may determine the severity of pain, fibrosis, and inflammation in chronic pancreatitis (CP. Methods The expression and localization of MFG-E8 was investigated in CP (n = 62, and normal pancreas (NP; n = 34 by QRT-PCR, Western-blot and immunohistochemistry analyses. Results were correlated with mRNA expression of fractalkine, CX3CR1, and with the presence and degree of pain and fibrosis. Human pancreatic stellate cells (hPSCs were isolated from CP tissues and evaluated for MFG-E8 mRNA expression after fractalkine stimulation. Results MFG-E8-mRNA was significantly overexpressed in CP and isolated hPSCs when compared to NP. Western-blot and immunohistochemistry analysis confirmed accumulation of MFG-E8 in CP, with noticeably increased MFG-E8 immunoreactivity in tubular complexes. MFG-E8 expression correlated significantly with fractalkine expression, severe fibrosis, and the presence of pain in CP patients. Stimulation of hPSCs with fractalkine led to a significant increase in MFG-E8 expression. Conclusions In the present study, we demonstrated for the first time that MFG-E8 is significantly up-regulated in CP patients and together with fractalkine correlated noticeably with severe fibrosis and the presence of pain. hPSCs overexpress MFG-E8 upon fractalkine stimulation in vitro, which underlines the suggested immunmodulatory link in CP and may be a key mechanism in CP fibrogenesis and pain generation. Taken together, these novel findings suggest that MFG-E8 blockade may be a promising tool for future immunotherapy in CP to attenuate both fibrosis and