WorldWideScience

Sample records for assessing potential future

  1. Assessing potential future environmental legislative, regulatory, and judicial events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonn, B.; Schweitzer, M.; Godfrey, G. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Wagner, C. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville (United States); MacGregor, D.G. [MacGregor-Bates, Inc. (United States)

    1998-03-01

    This report describes a methodology to proactively and methodically assess future potential environmental legislative, regulatory, and judicial events. This is an important endeavor because new, revised, and reauthorized legislation, proposed and final regulations, and outcomes of judicial proceedings have the potential to impose new actions, directions, and costs of many organizations in the United States (related to capital investments, operating approaches, and research and development) and to affect the quality of life. The electric power industry is particularly impacted by environmental regulatory events (the term `regulatory` is used to cover all the types of legal events listed above), as the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity affects air and water quality, require disposal of solid, hazardous, and radioactive wastes, and at times, impacts wetlands and endangered species. Numerous potential regulatory events, such as the reauthorization of the Clean Water Act and new regulations associated with global climate change, can greatly affect the power industry. Organizations poised to respond proactively to such events will improve their competitive positions, reduce their costs in the long-term, and improve their public images.

  2. Wind diesel systems - design assessment and future potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Infield, D.G.; Scotney, A.; Lundsager, P.

    1992-01-01

    system models for assessing both dynamic characteristics and overall performance and economics. An introduction is provided to the Wind Diesel Engineering Design Toolkit currently under development (for implementation on PC) by a consortium of leading wind diesel experts, representing six European......Diesels are the obvious form. of back-up electricity generation in small to medium sized wind systems. High wind penetrations pose significant technical problems for the system designer, ranging from component sizing to control specification and dynamic stability. A key role is seen for proven...

  3. Assessment of potential future hydrogen markets in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashani, A. K.

    1980-01-01

    Potential future hydrogen markets in the United States are assessed. Future hydrogen markets for various use sectors are projected, the probable range of hydrogen production costs from various alternatives is estimated, stimuli and barriers to the development of hydrogen markets are discussed, an overview of the status of technologies for the production and utilization of hydrogen is presented, and, finally, societal aspects of hydrogen production and utilization are discussed.

  4. Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popescu, I.; Brandimarte, L.; Perera, M. S. U.; Peviani, M.

    2012-08-01

    La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay), which have fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence, hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB), and it analyses the maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin for a horizon of 30 yr (i.e. year 2040). Current hydropower production is estimated based on historical available data, while future energy production is deduced from the available water in the catchment (estimated based on measured hydrographs of the past years), whereas electricity demand is assessed by correlating existing electricity demand with the estimated population growth and economic development. The maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin were assessed for the mean annual flows of the present hydrological regime (1970-2000) and topographical characteristics of the area. Computations were performed using an integrated GIS environment called VAPIDRO-ASTE released by the Research on Energy System (Italy). The residual hydropower potential of the basin is computed considering first that the water supply needs for population, industry and agriculture are served, and then hydropower energy is produced. The calculated hydropower production is found to be approximately half of the estimated electricity demand, which shows that there is a need to look for other sources of energy in the future.

  5. Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Popescu

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, which are having fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB and makes an analysis of the maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin for a horizon of 30 yr (i.e. year 2040. Current hydropower production is estimated based on historic available data while future energy production is deduced from the maximum available water in the catchment, whereas electricity demand is assessed by correlating existing electricity demand with the estimated population growth and economic development. The maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin, were assessed for the mean annual flows of the present hydrological regime (1970–2000 and topographical characteristics of the area.

    Computations were performed using an integrated GIS environment called Vapidro-Aste released by the Research on Energy System (Italy. The residual hydropower potential of the basin is computed considering that first the water supply needs for population, industry and agriculture are served and than hydropower energy is produced. The calculated hydropower production is found to be approximately half of the estimated electricity demand, which shows that there is a need to look for other sources of energy in the future.

  6. Assessment of Fire Occurrence and Future Fire Potential in Arctic Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, N. H. F.; Jenkins, L. K.; Loboda, T. V.; Bourgeau-Chavez, L. L.; Whitley, M. A.

    2014-12-01

    An analysis of the occurrence of fire in Alaskan tundra was completed using the relatively complete historical record of fire for the region from 1950 to 2013. Spatial fire data for Alaskan tundra regions were obtained from the Alaska Large Fire Database for the region defined from vegetation and ecoregion maps. A detailed presentation of fire records available for assessing the fire regime of the tundra regions of Alaska as well as results evaluating fire size, seasonality, and general geographic and temporal trends is included. Assessment of future fire potential was determined for three future climate scenarios at four locations across the Alaskan tundra using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) weather variables were used for historical (1850-2005) and future (2006-2100) time periods. The database includes 908 fire points and 463 fire polygons within the 482,931 km2 of Alaskan tundra. Based on the polygon database 25,656 km2 (6,340,000 acres) has burned across the six tundra ecoregions since 1950. Approximately 87% of tundra fires start in June and July across all ecoregions. Combining information from the polygon and points data records, the estimated average fire size for fire in the Alaskan Arctic region is 28.1 km2 (7,070 acres), which is much smaller than in the adjacent boreal forest region, averaging 203 km2 for high fire years. The largest fire in the database is the Imuruk Basin Fire which burned 1,680 km2 in 1954 in the Seward Peninsula region (Table 1). Assessment of future fire potential shows that, in comparison with the historical fire record, fire occurrence in Alaskan tundra is expected to increase under all three climate scenarios. Occurrences of high fire weather danger (>10 FWI) are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude in all regions modeled. The changes in fire weather conditions are expected to vary from one region to another in seasonal occurrence as well as severity and frequency

  7. Assessment of CO2 reduction potentials through clean coal technologies for future power plants in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monna Rozana

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents CO2 reduction potentials employing clean coal technologies for power plants in Indonesia. Whenlow ranked coal from huge reserves cannot be excluded from coal-fired power plants to meet electricity demand, it is criticalfor Indonesia to adopt the best available clean coal technologies for its future coal-fired power plants in order to minimizeCO2 emissions in a long term. Several types of coal-fired technologies are considered to be the best match with Indonesia’ssituation by assessing CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants, levelized costs of electricity generation, and the cost ofCO2 avoidance. As a result, supercritical PC, IGCC, CFB, and PFBC technologies are presented as a consideration for policymaker in Indonesia.

  8. Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Chunyang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Huang, Qingxu; Zhang, Qiaofeng; Zhang, Da

    2015-11-01

    Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape.

  9. Projecting future grassland productivity to assess the sustainability of potential biofuel feedstock areas in the Greater Platte River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.; Boyte, Stephen; Phyual, Khem

    2014-01-01

    This study projects future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) grassland productivities in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB) using ecosystem performance (EP, a surrogate for measuring ecosystem productivity) models and future climate projections. The EP models developed from a previous study were based on the satellite vegetation index, site geophysical and biophysical features, and weather and climate drivers. The future climate data used in this study were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 3.0 ‘SRES A1B’ (a ‘middle’ emissions path). The main objective of this study is to assess the future sustainability of the potential biofuel feedstock areas identified in a previous study. Results show that the potential biofuel feedstock areas (the more mesic eastern part of the GPRB) will remain productive (i.e., aboveground grassland biomass productivity >2750 kg ha−1 year−1) with a slight increasing trend in the future. The spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3519, 3432, 3557, 3605, 3752, and 3583 kg ha−1 year−1 for current site potential (2000–2008 average), 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099, respectively. Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will likely continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, grasslands identified as having no biofuel potential in the drier western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1822, 1691, 1896, 2306, 1994, and 2169 kg ha−1 year−1 for site potential, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099). These areas should continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. These future grassland productivity estimation maps can help land managers to understand and adapt to the expected changes in future EP in the GPRB and to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of potential biofuel feedstock areas.

  10. Assessement of rheumatic diseases with computational radiology: current status and future potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peloschek, Philipp; Boesen, Mikael; Donner, Rene;

    2009-01-01

    In recent years, several computational image analysis methods to assess disease progression in rheumatic diseases were presented. This review article explains the basics of these methods as well as their potential application in rheumatic disease monitoring, it covers radiography, sonography...... as well as magnetic resonance imaging in quantitative analysis frameworks....

  11. A Critical Assessment of the Resource Depletion Potential of Current and Future Lithium-Ion Batteries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jens F. Peters

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Resource depletion aspects are repeatedly used as an argument for a shift towards new battery technologies. However, whether serious shortages due to the increased demand for traction and stationary batteries can actually be expected is subject to an ongoing discussion. In order to identify the principal drivers of resource depletion for battery production, we assess different lithium-ion battery types and a new lithium-free battery technology (sodium-ion under this aspect, applying different assessment methodologies. The findings show that very different results are obtained with existing impact assessment methodologies, which hinders clear interpretation. While cobalt, nickel and copper can generally be considered as critical metals, the magnitude of their depletion impacts in comparison with that of other battery materials like lithium, aluminum or manganese differs substantially. A high importance is also found for indirect resource depletion effects caused by the co-extraction of metals from mixed ores. Remarkably, the resource depletion potential per kg of produced battery is driven only partially by the electrode materials and thus depends comparably little on the battery chemistry itself. One of the key drivers for resource depletion seems to be the metals (and co-products in electronic parts required for the battery management system, a component rather independent from the actual battery chemistry. However, when assessing the batteries on a capacity basis (per kWh storage capacity, a high-energy density also turns out to be relevant, since it reduces the mass of battery required for providing one kWh, and thus the associated resource depletion impacts.

  12. A horizon scanning assessment of current and potential future threats to migratory shorebirds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutherland, William J.; Alves, Jose A.; Amano, Tatsuya; Chang, Charlotte H.; Davidson, Nicholas C.; Finlayson, C. Max; Gill, Jennifer A.; Gill, Robert E.; González, Patricia M.; Gunnarsson, Tómas Grétar; Kleijn, David; Spray, Chris J.; Székely, Tamás; Thompson, Des B.A.

    2012-01-01

    We review the conservation issues facing migratory shorebird populations that breed in temperate regions and use wetlands in the non-breeding season. Shorebirds are excellent model organisms for understanding ecological, behavioural and evolutionary processes and are often used as indicators of wetland health. A global team of experienced shorebird researchers identified 45 issues facing these shorebird populations, and divided them into three categories (natural, current anthropogenic and future issues). The natural issues included megatsunamis, volcanoes and regional climate changes, while current anthropogenic threats encompassed agricultural intensification, conversion of tidal flats and coastal wetlands by human infrastructure developments and eutrophication of coastal systems. Possible future threats to shorebirds include microplastics, new means of recreation and infectious diseases. We suggest that this review process be broadened to other taxa to aid the identification and ranking of current and future conservation actions.

  13. Assessing current and future techno-economic potential of concentrated solar power and photovoltaic electricity generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Köberle, Alexandre C.; Gernaat, David E H J; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2015-01-01

    CSP and PV technologies represent energy sources with large potentials. We present cost-supply curves for both technologies using a consistent methodology for 26 regions, based on geoexplicit information on solar radiation, land cover type and slope, exploring individual potential and interdependenc

  14. Assessment of the potential future market in Sweden for hydrogen as an energy carrier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carleson, G.

    Future hydrogen markets for the period 1980-2025 are projected, the probable range of hydrogen production costs for various manufacturing methods is estimated, and expected market shares in competition with alternative energy carriers are evaluated. A general scenario for economic and industrial development in Sweden for the given period was evaluated, showing the average increase in gross national product to become 1.6% per year. Three different energy scenarios were then developed: alternatives were based on nuclear energy, renewable indigenous energy sources, and the present energy situation with free access to imported natural or synthetic fuels. An analysis was made within each scenario of the competitiveness of hydrogen on both the demand and the supply of the following sectors: chemical industry, steel industry, peak power production, residential and commercial heating, and transportation. Costs were calculated for the production, storage and transmission of hydrogen according to technically feasible methods and were compared to those of alternative energy carriers. Health, environmental and societal implications were also considered. The market penetration of hydrogen in each sector was estimated, and the required investment capital was shown to be less than 4% of the national gross investment sum.

  15. Potential and limitations of finite element modelling in assessing structural integrity of coralline algae under future global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melbourne, L. A.; Griffin, J.; Schmidt, D. N.; Rayfield, E. J.

    2015-10-01

    Coralline algae are important habitat formers found on all rocky shores. While the impact of future ocean acidification on the physiological performance of the species has been well studied, little research has focused on potential changes in structural integrity in response to climate change. A previous study using 2-D Finite Element Analysis (FEA) suggested increased vulnerability to fracture (by wave action or boring) in algae grown under high CO2 conditions. To assess how realistically 2-D simplified models represent structural performance, a series of increasingly biologically accurate 3-D FE models that represent different aspects of coralline algal growth were developed. Simplified geometric 3-D models of the genus Lithothamnion were compared to models created from computed tomography (CT) scan data of the same genus. The biologically accurate model and the simplified geometric model representing individual cells had similar average stresses and stress distributions, emphasising the importance of the cell walls in dissipating the stress throughout the structure. In contrast models without the accurate representation of the cell geometry resulted in larger stress and strain results. Our more complex 3-D model reiterated the potential of climate change to diminish the structural integrity of the organism. This suggests that under future environmental conditions the weakening of the coralline algal skeleton along with increased external pressures (wave and bioerosion) may negatively influence the ability for coralline algae to maintain a habitat able to sustain high levels of biodiversity.

  16. Assessment of the potential of colloidal fuels in future energy usage. Final report. [97 references

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1980-02-25

    Pulverized coal has been an increasing important source of energy over the past century. Most large utility boilers, all modern coking plants, and many industrial boilers and blast furnaces employ pulverized coal as a major feed stream. In periods of oil shortages, such as during World Wars I and II, the concept of adding powdered coal to oil for use in combustion equipment originally designed for oil has been actively pursued but rarely used. Over this same period of time, there have been attempts to use air suspensions of coal dust in diesel engines in Germany, and in turbines in various countries. The economic advantages to be enjoyed by substitution of powdered coal in oil are not generally realized. Oil costs at $30/bbl represent a fuel value of about $5.00/10/sup 6/ Btu; coal at $25/ton is equivalent to approximately $1.00/10/sup 6/ Btu. Although capital costs for the use of coal are higher than those associated with the use of oil, coal is clearly becoming the least costly fuel. Not only are considerable cost advantages possible, but an improvement in balance of payments and an increase in reliability of fuel supplies are other potential benefits. It is therefore recommended that increased national attention be given to develop these finer grinds of carbonaceous fuels to be used in various suspending fluids. Technical areas where significant additional support appear desirable are described.

  17. Accuracy of a Low-Cost Novel Computer-Vision Dynamic Movement Assessment: Potential Limitations and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGroarty, M.; Giblin, S.; Meldrum, D.; Wetterling, F.

    2016-04-01

    The aim of the study was to perform a preliminary validation of a low cost markerless motion capture system (CAPTURE) against an industry gold standard (Vicon). Measurements of knee valgus and flexion during the performance of a countermovement jump (CMJ) between CAPTURE and Vicon were compared. After correction algorithms were applied to the raw CAPTURE data acceptable levels of accuracy and precision were achieved. The knee flexion angle measured for three trials using Capture deviated by -3.8° ± 3° (left) and 1.7° ± 2.8° (right) compared to Vicon. The findings suggest that low-cost markerless motion capture has potential to provide an objective method for assessing lower limb jump and landing mechanics in an applied sports setting. Furthermore, the outcome of the study warrants the need for future research to examine more fully the potential implications of the use of low-cost markerless motion capture in the evaluation of dynamic movement for injury prevention.

  18. Future research needs associated with the assessment of potential human health risks from exposure to toxic ambient air pollutants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möller, Lennart; Schuetzle, Dennis; Autrup, Herman

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents key conclusions and future research needs from a Workshop on the Risk Assessment of Urban Air, Emissions, Exposure, Risk Identification, and Quantification, which was held in Stockholm during June 1992 by 41 participants from 13 countries. Research is recommended in the areas...... of identification and quantification of toxics in source emissions and ambient air, atmospheric transport and chemistry, exposure level assessment, the development of improved in vitro bioassays, biomarker development, the development of more accurate epidemiological methodologies, and risk quantification...

  19. Screening Assessment of Potential Human-Health Risk from Future Natural-Gas Drilling Near Project Rulison in Western Colorado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniels Jeffrey I.,Chapman Jenny B.

    2012-01-01

    The Project Rulison underground nuclear test was conducted in 1969 at a depth of 8,400 ft in the Williams Fork Formation of the Piceance Basin, west-central Colorado (Figure 1). The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) is the steward of the site. Their management is guided by data collected from past site investigations and current monitoring, and by the results of calculations of expected behavior of contaminants remaining in the deep subsurface. The purpose of this screening risk assessment is to evaluate possible health risks from current and future exposure to Rulison contaminants so the information can be factored into LM's stewardship decisions. For example, these risk assessment results can inform decisions regarding institutional controls at the site and appropriate monitoring of nearby natural-gas extraction activities. Specifically, the screening risk analysis can provide guidance for setting appropriate action levels for contaminant monitoring to ensure protection of human health.

  20. Assessing the zoonotic potential of Ascaris suum and Trichuris suis: looking to the future from an analysis of the past.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nejsum, P; Betson, M; Bendall, R P; Thamsborg, S M; Stothard, J R

    2012-06-01

    The two geohelminths, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura, infect more than a billion people worldwide but are only reported sporadically in the developed part of the world. In contrast, the closely related species A. suum and T. suis in pigs have a truly global distribution, with infected pigs found in most production systems. In areas where pigs and humans live in close proximity or where pig manure is used as fertilizer on vegetables for human consumption, there is a potential risk of cross-infections. We therefore review this relationship between Ascaris and Trichuris in the human and pig host, with special focus on recent evidence concerning the zoonotic potential of these parasites, and identify some open questions for future research.

  1. The future of environmental sustainability in the Taita Hills, Kenya: assessing potential impacts of agricultural expansion and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Maeda

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The indigenous cloud forests in the Taita Hills have suffered substantial degradation for several centuries due to agricultural expansion. Currently, only 1% of the original forested area remains preserved. Furthermore, climate change imposes an imminent threat for local economy and environmental sustainability. In such circumstances, elaborating tools to conciliate socioeconomic growth and natural resources conservation is an enormous challenge. This article tackles essential aspects for understanding the ongoing agricultural activities in the Taita Hills and their potential environmental consequences in the future. Initially, an alternative method is proposed to reduce uncertainties and costs for estimating agricultural water demand. The main characteristic of the approach proposed in this study is the use of satellite data to overcome data availability limitations. Furthermore, a modelling framework was designed to delineate agricultural expansion projections and evaluate the future impacts of agriculture on soil erosion and irrigation water demand. The results indicate that if current trends persist, agricultural areas will occupy roughly 60% of the study area by 2030. Rainfall erosivity is likely to increase during April and November due to climate change and slight decrease during March and May. Although the simulations indicate that climate change will likely increase total annual rainfall volumes during the following decades, irrigation requirements will continue to increase due to agricultural expansion. By 2030, new cropland areas may cause an increase of approximately 40% in the annual volume of water necessary for irrigation.

  2. Assessment of the present and future offshore wind power potential: a case study in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lizuma, Lita; Avotniece, Zanita; Rupainis, Sergejs; Teilans, Artis

    2013-01-01

    Offshore wind energy development promises to be a significant domestic renewable energy source in Latvia. The reliable prediction of present and future wind resources at offshore sites is crucial for planning and selecting the location for wind farms. The overall goal of this paper is the assessment of offshore wind power potential in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast as well as the identification of a trend in the future wind energy potential for the study territory. The regional climate model CLM and High Resolution Limited Area Model (Hirlam) simulations were used to obtain the wind climatology data for the study area. The results indicated that offshore wind energy is promising for expanding the national electricity generation and will continue to be a stable resource for electricity generation in the region over the 21st century.

  3. Assessment of the Present and Future Offshore Wind Power Potential: A Case Study in a Target Territory of the Baltic Sea Near the Latvian Coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lita Lizuma

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Offshore wind energy development promises to be a significant domestic renewable energy source in Latvia. The reliable prediction of present and future wind resources at offshore sites is crucial for planning and selecting the location for wind farms. The overall goal of this paper is the assessment of offshore wind power potential in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast as well as the identification of a trend in the future wind energy potential for the study territory. The regional climate model CLM and High Resolution Limited Area Model (Hirlam simulations were used to obtain the wind climatology data for the study area. The results indicated that offshore wind energy is promising for expanding the national electricity generation and will continue to be a stable resource for electricity generation in the region over the 21st century.

  4. Assessment of Government Quality Indicators (AGQI) in Afghanistan: Initial Assessment in Three Afghan Cities Using a Standardized Assessment Tool and Potential for Application of AGQI in Future Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-06-01

    type ( Bryman , 1984; Sechrist and Sidana, 1995; Hentschel, 1998) and with interview procedures used to assess components of governance in other...nature but the design includes information that would also allow some degree of qualitative interpretation ( Bryman , 1984; Sechrist and Sidana, 1995...Hentschel, 1998). The process for collecting the data (described later) adds a significant qualitative component ( Bryman , 1984; Sechrist and Sidana

  5. How To Assess The Future Tree-Cover Potential For Reforestation Planning In Semi-Arid Regions? An Attempt Using The Vegetation Model ORCHIDEE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajaud, A.; De Noblet-Ducoudré, N.

    2015-12-01

    More and more reforestation projects are undertaken at local to continental scales to fight desertification, to address development challenges, and to improve local living conditions in tropical semi-arid regions. These regions are very sensitive to climatic changes and the potential for maintaining tree-covers will be altered in the next decades. Therefore, reforestation planning needs predicting the future "climatic tree-cover potential": the optimum tree-fraction sustainable in future climatic states. Global circulation models projections provide possible future climatologies for the 21st century. These can be used at the global scale to force a land-surface model, which in turn simulates the vegetation development under these conditions. The tree cover leading to an optimum development may then be identified. We propose here to run a state-of-the-art model and to assess the span and the relevance of the answers that can be obtained for reforestation planning. The ORCHIDEE vegetation model is chosen here to allow a multi-criteria evaluation of the optimum cover, as it returns surface climate state variables as well as vegetation functioning and biomass products. It is forced with global climate data (WFDEI and CRU) for the 20th century and models projections (CMIP5 outputs) for the 21st century. At the grid-cell resolution of the forcing climate data, tree-covers ranging from 0 to 100% are successively prescribed. A set of indicators is then derived from the model outputs, meant for modulating reforestation strategies according to the regional priorities (e.g. maximize the biomass production or decrease the surface air temperature). The choice of indicators and the relevance of the final answers provided will be collectively assessed by the climate scientists and reforestation project management experts from the KINOME social enterprise (http://en.kinome.fr). Such feedback will point towards the model most urging needs for improvement.

  6. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  7. Mycoinsecticides: potential and future perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Abid; Rizwan-ul-Haq, Muhammad; Al-Ayedh, Hassan; Al-Jabr, Ahmed M

    2014-01-01

    Crop damage and consequent loss in productivity associated with arthropod pests represent the most serious threats to the world economy. Different methods have been used in the past to control arthropod pests; however, the increase in incidences of resistance to pesticides, food safety concerns, and concerns related to environmental impact associated with the use of chemical pesticides have led to the recent expansion of biological control agents. Entomopathogenic fungi are important and promising bio-control agents for controlling arthropod pests. This review compiles recent information regarding the potential of entomopathogenic fungi used against arthropod pests, traits responsible for mycoinsecticide virulence, and possible ways to enhance the virulence of entomopathogenic fungi, in order to pave the way for the development of bio-rational and eco-friendly arthropod pest management strategies.

  8. Past applications and future potential of variable stability research helicopters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hindson, W. S.

    1982-01-01

    The historical development of variable-stability research helicopters and some of their previous applications are presented as a guide for assessing their future potential. The features of three general-purpose rotary-wing flight research aircraft that provide complementary capabilities are described briefly, and a number of future applications are proposed.

  9. FUTURES OPTIONS: UNIVERSE OF POTENTIAL PROFIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teselios Delia

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available A approaching options on futures contracts in the present paper is argued, on one hand, by the great number of their directions for use (in financial speculation, in managing and risk control, etc. and, on the other hand, by the fact that in Romania, nowadays, futures contracts and options represent the main categories of traded financial instruments. Because futures contract, as an underlying asset for options, it is often more liquid and involves more reduced transaction costs than cash product which corresponds to that futures contract, this paper presents a number of information regarding options on futures contracts, which offer a wide range of investment opportunities, being used to protect against adverse price moves in commodity, interest rate, foreign exchange and equity markets. There are presented two assessment models of these contracts, namely: an expansion of the Black_Scholes model published in 1976 by Fischer Black and the binomial model used especially for its flexibility. Likewise, there are presented a series of operations that can be performed using futures options and also arguments in favor of using these types of options.

  10. RANGELAND SEQUESTRATION POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee Spangler; George F. Vance; Gerald E. Schuman; Justin D. Derner

    2012-03-31

    Rangelands occupy approximately half of the world's land area and store greater than 10% of the terrestrial biomass carbon and up to 30% of the global soil organic carbon. Although soil carbon sequestration rates are generally low on rangelands in comparison to croplands, increases in terrestrial carbon in rangelands resulting from management can account for significant carbon sequestration given the magnitude of this land resource. Despite the significance rangelands can play in carbon sequestration, our understanding remains limited. Researchers conducted a literature review to identify sustainably management practices that conserve existing rangeland carbon pools, as well as increase or restore carbon sequestration potentials for this type of ecosystem. The research team also reviewed the impact of grazing management on rangeland carbon dynamics, which are not well understood due to heterogeneity in grassland types. The literature review on the impact of grazing showed a wide variation of results, ranging from positive to negative to no response. On further review, the intensity of grazing appears to be a major factor in controlling rangeland soil organic carbon dynamics. In 2003, researchers conducted field sampling to assess the effect of several drought years during the period 1993-2002. Results suggested that drought can significantly impact rangeland soil organic carbon (SOC) levels, and therefore, carbon sequestration. Resampling was conducted in 2006; results again suggested that climatic conditions may have overridden management effects on SOC due to the ecological lag of the severe drought of 2002. Analysis of grazing practices during this research effort suggested that there are beneficial effects of light grazing compared to heavy grazing and non-grazing with respect to increased SOC and nitrogen contents. In general, carbon storage in rangelands also increases with increased precipitation, although researchers identified threshold levels of

  11. Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evangelista, P.H.; Kumar, S.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Young, N.E.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of our study was to estimate forest vulnerability and potential distribution of three bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) under current and projected climate conditions for 2020 and 2050. Our study focused on the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis), and pine engraver (Ips pini). This study was conducted across eight states in the Interior West of the US covering approximately 2.2millionkm2 and encompassing about 95% of the Rocky Mountains in the contiguous US. Our analyses relied on aerial surveys of bark beetle outbreaks that occurred between 1991 and 2008. Occurrence points for each species were generated within polygons created from the aerial surveys. Current and projected climate scenarios were acquired from the WorldClim database and represented by 19 bioclimatic variables. We used Maxent modeling technique fit with occurrence points and current climate data to model potential beetle distributions and forest vulnerability. Three available climate models, each having two emission scenarios, were modeled independently and results averaged to produce two predictions for 2020 and two predictions for 2050 for each analysis. Environmental parameters defined by current climate models were then used to predict conditions under future climate scenarios, and changes in different species' ranges were calculated. Our results suggested that the potential distribution for bark beetles under current climate conditions is extensive, which coincides with infestation trends observed in the last decade. Our results predicted that suitable habitats for the mountain pine beetle and pine engraver beetle will stabilize or decrease under future climate conditions, while habitat for the western pine beetle will continue to increase over time. The greatest increase in habitat area was for the western pine beetle, where one climate model predicted a 27% increase by 2050. In contrast, the predicted habitat of the

  12. Estimation of potential evapotranspiration from extraterrestrial radiation, air temperature and humidity to assess future climate change effects on the vegetation of the Northern Great Plains, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominique M.; Symstad, Amy J.; Ferschweiler, Ken; Hobbins, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The potential evapotranspiration (PET) that would occur with unlimited plant access to water is a central driver of simulated plant growth in many ecological models. PET is influenced by solar and longwave radiation, temperature, wind speed, and humidity, but it is often modeled as a function of temperature alone. This approach can cause biases in projections of future climate impacts in part because it confounds the effects of warming due to increased greenhouse gases with that which would be caused by increased radiation from the sun. We developed an algorithm for linking PET to extraterrestrial solar radiation (incoming top-of atmosphere solar radiation), as well as temperature and atmospheric water vapor pressure, and incorporated this algorithm into the dynamic global vegetation model MC1. We tested the new algorithm for the Northern Great Plains, USA, whose remaining grasslands are threatened by continuing woody encroachment. Both the new and the standard temperature-dependent MC1 algorithm adequately simulated current PET, as compared to the more rigorous PenPan model of Rotstayn et al. (2006). However, compared to the standard algorithm, the new algorithm projected a much more gradual increase in PET over the 21st century for three contrasting future climates. This difference led to lower simulated drought effects and hence greater woody encroachment with the new algorithm, illustrating the importance of more rigorous calculations of PET in ecological models dealing with climate change.

  13. GIS Based Analysis of future district heating potential in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steffen; Möller, Bernd

    2012-01-01

    The physical placement of buildings is important when determining the future potential for district heating (DH). Good locations for DH are mainly determined by having a large heat demand within a certain area combined with an access to local resources. In Denmark, the placement of buildings...... and their heat demand has in recent years been assessed in a heat atlas including all buildings in Denmark. The focus in this article is to further develop a method for assessing the costs associated with supplying these buildings with DH. The analysis takes departure in the existing DH areas in Denmark...

  14. The Future Potential of Internet of Things

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aelita Skaržauskienė

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To define the Internet of things and to analyze it as a background for the internet of services.Design/methodology/approach: The article discusses potential possibilities and problematic issues concerning the Internet of things (IoT and Internet of services (IoS. The debates concerning IoT and its possible application fields have continued for more than ten years. The technological background is there and the fields of application are broad. However, there is still a lack of understanding about the possible benefits that technology could give to various bodies if applied correctly. This article is based on comparison and analysis of scientific articles, research papers and case studies related to the potential for IoT and its implementation in IoS.Theoretical findings: IoT is a logical evolutionary step for the internet. Despite the technological background, the concept of objects which are aware of their surroundings, allow to manipulate them by defining different rule patterns and ensuring interaction possibilities with other objects or human beings. The necessity for web-based services is increasing along with the technological gadgets which support them. Applying things, which are connected in a network, could revolutionize many industry and service sectors and create new service provision and administration methods based on information technology. However, there are many problematic issues and research challenges related to the IoT. Few of the most significant are related to standardization of technology, legal regulation and ethical aspects concerning the IoT technology.Research limitations/implications: The IoT is a popular trend promoted by the business sector and governmental bodies. There are few comprehensive studies and projects which talk about the benefits that business and society could gain from the IoT. There is a lot less information about the possible risk and problematic aspects, and a lack of agreements between the

  15. Colorado Plateau Rapid Ecoregion Assessment Management Question F2: Where are the areas of potential future encroachment from this invasive species?

    Data.gov (United States)

    Bureau of Land Management, Department of the Interior — This map shows the current distribution of major invasive vegetation species (primarily cheatgrass and tamarisk), and predicted near-term future distribution of...

  16. NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems Planning and Potential Future Systems Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakrajsek, June F.; Woerner, Dave F.; Cairns-Gallimore, Dirk; Johnson, Stephen G.; Qualls, Louis

    2016-01-01

    The goal of NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) Program is to make RPS ready and available to support the exploration of the solar system in environments where the use of conventional solar or chemical power generation is impractical or impossible to meet the needs of the missions. To meet this goal, the RPS Program, working closely with the Department of Energy, performs mission and system studies (such as the recently released Nuclear Power Assessment Study), assesses the readiness of promising technologies to infuse in future generators, assesses the sustainment of key RPS capabilities and knowledge, forecasts and tracks the Program's budgetary needs, and disseminates current information about RPS to the community of potential users. This process has been refined and used to determine the current content of the RPS Program's portfolio. This portfolio currently includes an effort to mature advanced thermoelectric technology for possible integration into an enhanced Multi-Mission Radioisotope Generator (eMMRTG), sustainment and production of the currently deployed MMRTG, and technology investments that could lead to a future Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG). This paper describes the program planning processes that have been used, the currently available MMRTG, and one of the potential future systems, the eMMRTG.

  17. NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems Planning and Potential Future Systems Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakrajsek, June F.; Woerner, Dave F.; Cairns-Gallimore, Dirk; Johnson, Stephen G.; Qualis, Louis

    2016-01-01

    The goal of NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) Program is to make RPS ready and available to support the exploration of the solar system in environments where the use of conventional solar or chemical power generation is impractical or impossible to meet the needs of the missions. To meet this goal, the RPS Program, working closely with the Department of Energy, performs mission and system studies (such as the recently released Nuclear Power Assessment Study), assesses the readiness of promising technologies to infuse in future generators, assesses the sustainment of key RPS capabilities and knowledge, forecasts and tracks the Programs budgetary needs, and disseminates current information about RPS to the community of potential users. This process has been refined and used to determine the current content of the RPS Programs portfolio. This portfolio currently includes an effort to mature advanced thermoelectric technology for possible integration into an enhanced Multi-Mission Radioisotope Generator (eMMRTG), sustainment and production of the currently deployed MMRTG, and technology investments that could lead to a future Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG). This paper describes the program planning processes that have been used, the currently available MMRTG, and one of the potential future systems, the eMMRTG.

  18. Assessment on the rates and potentials of soil organic carbon sequestration in agricultural lands in Japan using a process-based model and spatially explicit land-use change inventories - Part 2: Future potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yagasaki, Y.; Shirato, Y.

    2014-08-01

    Future potentials of the sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural lands in Japan were estimated using a simulation system we recently developed to simulate SOC stock change at country-scale under varying land-use change, climate, soil, and agricultural practices, in a spatially explicit manner. Simulation was run from 1970 to 2006 with historical inventories, and subsequently to 2020 with future scenarios of agricultural activity comprised of various agricultural policy targets advocated by the Japanese government. Furthermore, the simulation was run subsequently until 2100 while forcing no temporal changes in land-use and agricultural activity to investigate duration and course of SOC stock change at country scale. A scenario with an increased rate of organic carbon input to agricultural fields by intensified crop rotation in combination with the suppression of conversion of agricultural lands to other land-use types was found to have a greater reduction of CO2 emission by enhanced soil carbon sequestration, but only under a circumstance in which the converted agricultural lands will become settlements that were considered to have a relatively lower rate of organic carbon input. The size of relative reduction of CO2 emission in this scenario was comparable to that in another contrasting scenario (business-as-usual scenario of agricultural activity) in which a relatively lower rate of organic matter input to agricultural fields was assumed in combination with an increased rate of conversion of the agricultural fields to unmanaged grasslands through abandonment. Our simulation experiment clearly demonstrated that net-net-based accounting on SOC stock change, defined as the differences between the emissions and removals during the commitment period and the emissions and removals during a previous period (base year or base period of Kyoto Protocol), can be largely influenced by variations in future climate. Whereas baseline-based accounting, defined

  19. The Future Potential of Internet of Things

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aelita Skaržauskienė

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To define the Internet of things and to analyze it as a background for the internet of services. Design/methodology/approach: The article discusses potential possibilities and problematic issues concerning the Internet of things (IoT and Internet of services (IoS. The debates concerning IoT and its possible application fields have continued for more than ten years. The technological background is there and the fields of application are broad. However, there is still a lack of understanding about the possible benefits that technology could give to various bodies if applied correctly. This article is based on comparison and analysis of scientific articles, research papers and case studies related to the potential for IoT and its implementation in IoS. Theoretical findings: IoT is a logical evolutionary step for the internet. Despite the technological background, the concept of objects which are aware of their surroundings, allow to manipulate them by defining different rule patterns and ensuring interaction possibilities with other objects or human beings. The necessity for web-based services is increasing along with the technological gadgets which support them. Applying things, which are connected in a network, could revolutionize many industry and service sectors and create new service provision and administration methods based on information technology. However, there are many problematic issues and research challenges related to the IoT. Few of the most significant are related to standardization of technology, legal regulation and ethical aspects concerning the IoT technology. Research limitations/implications: The IoT is a popular trend promoted by the business sector and governmental bodies. There are few comprehensive studies and projects which talk about the benefits that business and society could gain from the IoT. There is a lot less information about the possible risk and problematic aspects, and a lack of agreements between

  20. Assessing wheat production futures in the Ukraine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ryabchenko, O.; Nonhebel, S

    2016-01-01

    In future decades, the global demand for cereals will increase due to growing demand for food and feed and use of cereal crops as a source for biofuels. Some studies on cereal production within Europe have identified the Ukraine as a country with a large potential to increase production. However, th

  1. Global Energy Assessment. Toward a Sustainable Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johansson, T.B.; Nakicenovic, N.; Patwardhan, A.; Gomez-Echeverri, L. (eds.)

    2012-11-01

    The Global Energy Assessment (GEA) brings together over 300 international researchers to provide an independent, scientifically based, integrated and policy-relevant analysis of current and emerging energy issues and options. It has been peer-reviewed anonymously by an additional 200 international experts. The GEA assesses the major global challenges for sustainable development and their linkages to energy; the technologies and resources available for providing energy services; future energy systems that address the major challenges; and the policies and other measures that are needed to realize transformational change toward sustainable energy futures. The GEA goes beyond existing studies on energy issues by presenting a comprehensive and integrated analysis of energy challenges, opportunities and strategies, for developing, industrialized and emerging economies. This volume is an invaluable resource for energy specialists and technologists in all sectors (academia, industry and government) as well as policymakers, development economists and practitioners in international organizations and national governments.

  2. Assessment of triton potential energy

    CERN Document Server

    Friar, J L

    1996-01-01

    An assessment is made of the dominant features contributing to the triton potential energy, with the objective of understanding qualitatively their origins and sensitivities. Relativistic effects, short-range repulsion, and OPEP dominance are discussed. A determination of the importance of various regions of nucleon-nucleon separation is made numerically.

  3. Assessment of Triton Potential Energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friar, J. L.; Payne, G. L.

    1995-12-01

    An assessment is made of the dominant features contributing to the triton potential energy, with the objective of understanding qualitatively their origins and sensitivities. Relativistic effects, short-range repulsion, and OPEP dominance are discussed. A determination of the importance of various regions of nucleon-nucleon separation is made numerically.

  4. Bioactive glasses potential biomaterials for future therapy

    CERN Document Server

    Kaur, Gurbinder

    2017-01-01

    This book describes the history, origin and basic characteristics of bioactive materials. It includes a chapter dedicated to hydroxyapatite mineral, its formation and its bioactive properties. The authors address how cytotoxicity is a determining step for bioactivity. Applications of bioactive materials in the contexts of tissue regeneration, bone regeneration and cancer therapy are also covered. Silicate, metallic and mesoporous glasses are described, as well as the challenges and future prospects of research in this field.

  5. The future of the energy markets. Economic analysis and assessment of potentials and options for action; Die Zukunft der Energiemaerkte. Oekonomische Analyse und Bewertung von Potenzialen und Handlungsmoeglichkeiten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buchholz, Wolfgang; Frank, Jonas; Karl, Hans-Dieter; Pfeiffer, Johannes; Pittel, Karen; Triebswetter, Ursula [Ifo-Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung e.V., Muenchen (Germany); Habermann, Jochen; Mauch, Wolfgang; Staudacher, Thomas [FfE Forschungsstelle fuer Energiewirtschaft e.V., Muenchen (Germany)

    2012-07-01

    The present study is primarily dedicated to the energy policy goals as well as the challenges of the energy turnaround in terms of economic theory and political action. It gives an account of CO{sub 2} avoidance potentials and avoidance costs and then goes on to address individual measures and packages of measures such as the expansion of renewables, with priority given to those associated with the least CO{sub 2} avoidance costs; measures to improve the economic efficiency of existing coal power plants; power to gas; measures to improve the economic efficiency of cross-sectoral technologies; packages of measures relating to buildings; measures in the area of electromobility; and measures that take account of the European dimension of the energy markets. The following issues are examined in concluding: The EU ETS as a central climate policy instrument, supplementary instruments and reforms in the electricity sector and supplementary instruments for the promotion of energy efficiency.

  6. Staging the Future--Potentializing the Self

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjerg, Helle

    2013-01-01

    This article frames a qualitative analysis of how a particular actualization of independent project work may be understood as a "pedagogy of potentialization" that relies on schooling the desire to learn as creation and (self-)transgression. The framework for analyzing school as an affective space draws on conceptualizations of affect,…

  7. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology.

  8. The Future Potential of Waver Power in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirko Previsic; Jeff Epler; Maureen Hand; Donna Heimiller; Walter Short; Kelly Eurek

    2012-09-20

    The theoretical ocean wave energy resource potential exceeds 50% of the annual domestic energy demand of the United States, is located close to coastal population centers, and, although variable in nature, may be more consistent and predictable than some other renewable generation technologies. As a renewable electricity generation technology, ocean wave energy offers a low air pollutant option for diversifying the U.S. electricity generation portfolio. Furthermore, the output characteristics of these technologies may complement other renewable technologies. This study addresses the following: (1) The theoretical, technical and practical potential for electricity generation from wave energy (2) The present lifecycle cost profile (Capex, Opex, and Cost of Electricity) of wave energy conversion technology at a reference site in Northern California at different plant scales (3) Cost of electricity variations as a function of deployment site, considering technical, geo-spatial and and electric grid constraints (4) Technology cost reduction pathways (5) Cost reduction targets at which the technology will see significant deployment within US markets, explored through a series of deployment scenarios RE Vision Consulting, LLC (RE Vision), engaged in various analyses to establish current and future cost profiles for marine hydrokinetic (MHK) technologies, quantified the theoretical, technical and practical resource potential, performed electricity market assessments and developed deployment scenarios. RE Vision was supported in this effort by NREL analysts, who compiled resource information, performed analysis using the ReEDSa model to develop deployment scenarios, and developed a simplified assessment of the Alaska and Hawaii electricity markets.

  9. Assessing potential future environmental legal events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonn, B. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Petrich, C. [The Ernst and Yound Center for Business Innovation, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1997-10-28

    This report addresses the topic of environmental citizenship in the United States. The term refers to responsibilities each of us have with respect to helping our communities and nation make sound environmental decisions. This research centers on the citizens and what we ought to be doing, as opposed to what the government ought to be doing for us, to improve environmental citizenship. This report examines four central questions: What are the requirements (i.e., responsibilities) of citizenship vis-a-vis environmental decision- making processes; what constraints limit people`s ability to meet these requirements; what does our form of governance do to help or hinder in meeting these requirements; and what recommendations can be put forth to improve public participation in environmental decision making?

  10. Voice over Internet Protocol (VOIP: Future Potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ms. Deepti

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available VoIP (voice over IP delivers standard voice over telephone services over Internet Protocol (IP. VoIP is the technology of digitizing sound, compressing it, breaking it up into data packets, and sending it over an IP (internet protocol network where it is reassembled, decompressed, and converted back into an analog wave form. Gateways are the key component required to facilitate IP Telephony. A gateway is used to bridge the traditional circuit switched PSTN with the packet switched Internet. The paper covers software, hardware and protocol requirements followed by weighing the VoIP advantages such as low cost, portability, free and advanced features, bandwidth efficiency, call recording and monitoring against the VoIP disadvantages such as power dependency, quality of voice and service, security, and reliability. With ever increasing internet penetration and better broadband connectivity, VoIP is going to expand further with businesses already using VoIP standalone or in a hybrid format, although our focus and scope here remains VoIP. Mobile VoIP, an infant with less than 4% market share, has so far been focusing on increasing active subscriptions without a sustainable revenue model, but has the potential and is going to see tussle with static VoIP for space in days ahead.

  11. VOICE OVER INTERNET PROTOCOL (VOIP: FUTURE POTENTIAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepti Kumari

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available VoIP (voice over IP delivers standard voice over telephone services over Internet Protocol (IP. VoIP is the technology of digitizing sound, compressing it, breaking it up into data packets, and sending it over an IP (internet protocol network where it is reassembled, decompressed, and converted back into an analog wave form. Gateways are the key component required to facilitate IP Telephony. A gateway is used to bridge the traditional circuit switched PSTN with the packet switched Internet. The paper covers software, hardware and protocol requirements followed by weighing the VoIP advantages such as low cost, portability, free and advanced features, bandwidth efficiency, call recording and monitoring against the VoIP disadvantages such as power dependency, quality of voice and service, security, and reliability. With ever increasing internet penetration and better broadband connectivity, VoIP is going to expand further with businesses already using VoIP standalone or in a hybrid format, although our focus and scope here remains VoIP. Mobile VoIP, an infant with less than 4% market share, has so far been focusing on increasing active subscriptions without a sustainable revenue model, but has the potential and is going to see tussle with static VoIP for space in days ahead.

  12. Assessment of wind energy potential in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhu Rong; Zhang De; Wang Yuedong; Xing Xuhuang; Li Zechun

    2009-01-01

    China wind atlas was made by numerical simulation and the wind energy potential in China was calculated. The model system for wind energy resource assessment was set up based on Canadian Wind Energy Simulating Toolkit (WEST) and the simulating method was as follows. First, the weather classes were obtained depend on meteorological data of 30 years. Then, driven by the initial meteorological field produced by each weather class, the meso-scale model ran for the distribution of wind energy resources according each weather class condition one by one. Finally, averaging all the modeling output weighted by the occurrence frequency of each weather class, the annual mean distribution of wind energy resources was worked out. Compared the simulated wind energy potential with other results from several ac-tivities and studies for wind energy resource assessment, it is found that the simulated wind energy potential in mainland of China is 3 times that from the second and the third investigations for wind energy resources by CMA, and is similar to the wind energy potential obtained by NREL in Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment (SWERA) project. The simulated offshore wind energy potential of China seems smaller than the true value. According to the simulated results of CMA and considering lots of limited factors to wind energy development, the final conclusion can be obtained that the wind energy availability in China is 700~1 200 GW, in which 600~1 000 GW is in mainland and 100~200 GW is on offshore, and wind power will become the important part of energy composition in future.

  13. Assessing the future of green building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Raymond J.

    2005-04-01

    As the realities of resource depletion and global environmental degradation become more evident, we can anticipate a maturing and strengthening of the public's concern and knowledge on environmental issues. This will translate into an expectation for greater environmental responsibility and, as with other sectors, the building industry will be increasingly scrutinized for its environmental actions. The adoption of environmental strategies has been accelerated by the emergence of building environmental assessment methods that have provided both a definition and common language for green buildings as well as a means of communicating performance improvements. Whereas the current focus is on ``green'' design-reducing or mitigating the environmental consequences of buildings-the future concerns will embrace mitigation, adaptation to the new conditions and restoring previous adversely impacted regions and human settlements. This presentation will provide an overview of the evolution of green building practices to set a context for understanding emerging issues in building acoustics. Since the adoption of green building practices is a function of the context that shapes political and public priorities, the presentation compares and contrasts several short and long-term scenarios some certain, others more speculative and their direct and indirect consequences for environmental progress building design.

  14. Scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dornburg, V.; Hermann, B.G.; Patel, M.K.

    2008-01-01

    Three scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals produced by means of white biotechnology are developed for Europe (EU-25) until the year 2050, and potential nonrenewable energy savings, greenhouse gas emission reduction, and land use consequences are analyzed. Thes

  15. Conventional engine technology. Volume 3: Comparisons and future potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowdy, M. W.

    1981-01-01

    The status of five conventional automobile engine technologies was assessed and the future potential for increasing fuel economy and reducing exhaust emission was discussed, using the 1980 EPA California emisions standards as a comparative basis. By 1986, the fuel economy of a uniform charge Otto engine with a three-way catalyst is expected to increase 10%, while vehicles with lean burn (fast burn) engines should show a 20% fuel economy increase. Although vehicles with stratified-charge engines and rotary engines are expected to improve, their fuel economy will remain inferior to the other engine types. When adequate NO emissions control methods are implemented to meet the EPA requirements, vehicles with prechamber diesel engines are expected to yield a fuel economy advantage of about 15%. While successful introduction of direct injection diesel engine technology will provide a fuel savings of 30 to 35%, the planned regulation of exhaust particulates could seriously hinder this technology, because it is expected that only the smallest diesel engine vehicles could meet the proposed particulate requirements.

  16. Potential Technologies for Assessing Risk Associated with a Mesoscale Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-01

    the actual model-forecast error—the 500-hPa root-mean-square error (RMSE) height error. Future work should also consider other forecast metrics such...ARL-TN-0708 ● OCT 2015 US Army Research Laboratory Potential Technologies for Assessing Risk Associated with a Mesoscale...OCT 2015 US Army Research Laboratory Potential Technologies for Assessing Risk Associated with a Mesoscale Forecast by Patrick A

  17. Scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals

    OpenAIRE

    Dornburg, V.; Hermann, B.G.; Patel, M.K.

    2008-01-01

    Three scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals produced by means of white biotechnology are developed for Europe (EU-25) until the year 2050, and potential nonrenewable energy savings, greenhouse gas emission reduction, and land use consequences are analyzed. These scenarios assume benign, moderate, and disadvantageous conditions for biobased chemicals. The scenario analysis yields a broad range of values for the possible market development of white biotech...

  18. Are CCRCs facing a promising future or potential problems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruchlin, H S

    1987-10-01

    In a recently completed study profiling CCRCs, it was concluded that CCRCs are showing an improved financial position. However, financial problems were noted. In many cases, income and equity deficits were reported. Financial ratios indicated additional potential problems. Unless improvements can be made, CCRCs may be facing a future of financial difficulties.

  19. The Future of Data-Enriched Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thille, Candace; Schneider, Emily; Kizilcec, René F.; Piech, Christopher; Halawa, Sherif A.; Greene, Daniel K.

    2014-01-01

    The article addresses the question of how the assessment process with large-scale data derived from online learning environments will be different from the assessment process without it. Following an explanation of big data and how it is different from previously available learner data, we describe three notable features that characterize…

  20. Anticipating the future: assessment of occupational function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trombly, C

    1993-03-01

    I believe that the occupational therapy assessment procedure should reflect our conceptualization of occupational functioning and that there should be a congruence among goals, assessments, and treatment. I believe that there should be a universal occupational therapy intake assessment procedure that follows a top-down approach to clarify for the client that the role of occupational therapy is to promote his or her occupational functioning. All the layers of function that we treat should be assessed, with the particulars of context incorporated into assessments at the activity and higher levels. Further and most important, occupational functioning should be fully conceptualized and the relevant constructs and their relationships verified and made clear to all.

  1. Educational Assessment Grows Up: Looking toward the Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Backlund, Phil; Arneson, Pat

    2000-01-01

    Claims that assessment is the process by which educators know if they are actually doing what they intend to do in the classroom. Presents an overview of the history, the present, and the future of educational assessment to enable readers working with communication assessment issues to make more informed decisions. (NH)

  2. NextGen Future Safety Assessment Game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ancel, Ersin; Gheorghe, Adrian; Jones, Sharon Monica

    2011-01-01

    The successful implementation of the next generation infrastructure systems requires solid understanding of their technical, social, political and economic aspects along with their interactions. The lack of historical data that relate to the long-term planning of complex systems introduces unique challenges for decision makers and involved stakeholders which in turn result in unsustainable systems. Also, the need to understand the infrastructure at the societal level and capture the interaction between multiple stakeholders becomes important. This paper proposes a methodology in order to develop a holistic approach aiming to provide an alternative subject-matter expert (SME) elicitation and data collection method for future sociotechnical systems. The methodology is adapted to Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) decision making environment in order to demonstrate the benefits of this holistic approach.

  3. Asian water futures - Multi scenarios, models and criteria assessment -

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Wada, Yoshihide; Flrörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Kahil, Taher; Tramberend, Sylvia; Fischer, Günther; Wiberg, David

    2016-04-01

    A better understanding of the current and future availability of water resources is essential for the implementation of the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Long-term/efficient strategies for coping with current and potential future water-related challenges are urgently required. Although Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were develop for the impact assessment of climate change, very few assessments have yet used the SSPs to assess water resources. Then the IIASA Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS), developed a set of water use scenarios consistent with RCPs and SSPs and applying the latest climate changes scenarios. Here this study focuses on results for Asian countries for the period 2010-2050. We present three conceivable future pathways of Asian water resources, determined by feasible combinations of two RCPs and three SSPs. Such a scenario approach provides valuable insights towards identifying appropriate strategies as gaps between a "scenario world" and reality. In addition, for the assessment of future water resources a multi-criteria analysis is applied. A classification system for countries and watershed that consists of two broad dimensions: (i) economic and institutional adaptive capacity, (ii) hydrological complexity. The latter is composed of several sub-indexes including total renewable water resources per capita, the ratio of water demand to renewable water resource, variability of runoff and dependency ratio to external. Furthermore, this analysis uses a multi-model approach to estimate runoff and discharge using 5 GCMs and 5 global hydrological models (GHMs). Three of these GHMs calculate water use based on a consistent set of scenarios in addition to water availability. As a result, we have projected hot spots of water scarcity in Asia and their spatial and temporal change. For example, in a scenario based on SSP2 and RCP6.0, by 2050, in total 2.1 billion people

  4. Environmental assessment process needs and future directions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gustafson, P.F.

    1985-01-01

    The environmental assessment process as legislatively mandated by the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) constitutes a double-edged sword as regards the successful management and disposal of radioactive waste. On the one hand, NEPA requires identification and disclosure of the environmental and societal consequences of a given major federal action, consideration of alternatives and/or mitigative measures leading to the same end result, a balancing of costs and benefits, and provides for and encourages public participation in the decision-making process regarding the proposed action(s). On the other hand, public participation supported by judicial decisions, based more upon procedural than substantive issues, may delay, alter, or indeed prohibit a proposed course of action. If the cognizant federal agencies (DOE and NRC in the radioactive waste area) comply with both the spirit and the letter of NEPA a framework for the successful management of radioactive wastes on all types can be developed. If however, these agencies are less than earnest in their NEPA compliance actions or if public opposition is backed by overzealous court action, any radioactive waste management/disposal action (however technically sound) can be hoisted upon a petard from which it may not be freed until well into the next century.

  5. A generic hydroeconomic model to assess future water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice

    2015-04-01

    We developed a generic hydroeconomic model able to confront future water supply and demand on a large scale, taking into account man-made reservoirs. The assessment is done at the scale of river basins, using only globally available data; the methodology can thus be generalized. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources. The available quantity of water at each site is computed using the following information: runoff is taken from the outputs of CNRM climate model (Dubois et al., 2010), reservoirs are located using Aquastat, and the sub-basin flow-accumulation area of each reservoir is determined based on a Digital Elevation Model (HYDRO1k). On the demand side, agricultural and domestic demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. For the agricultural sector, globally available data on irrigated areas and crops are combined in order to determine irrigated crops localization. Then, crops irrigation requirements are computed for the different stages of the growing season using Allen (1998) method with Hargreaves potential evapotranspiration. Irrigation water economic value is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. Potential irrigated and rainfed yields are taken from LPJmL (Blondeau et al., 2007), or from FAOSTAT by making simple assumptions on yield ratios. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The method consists in building three-blocks inverse demand functions where volume limits of the blocks evolve with the level of GDP per capita. The value of water along the demand curve is determined from price-elasticity, price and demand data from the literature, using the point-expansion method, and from water costs data. Then projected demands are confronted to future water availability. Operating rules of the reservoirs and water allocation between demands are based on

  6. The future of human rights impact assessments of trade agreements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Walker, S.M.

    2009-01-01

    The Future of Human Rights Impact Assessments of Trade Agreements develops a methodology for human rights impact assessments of trade agreements and considers whether there is any value in using the methodology on a sustained basis to ensure that the human dimensions of international trade are taken

  7. Future Projections of Trans-Arctic Shipping Potential and Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, S. R.; Smith, L. C.

    2014-12-01

    As the Arctic Ocean transitions towards a seasonally ice-free state, efforts to predict new connections between the Arctic and the global economy are underway. In particular, record lows in September sea ice extent from 2007-2013 have recast Arctic shipping routes as emerging international seaways for export of resources and as potential alternative pathways for global trade. While ensemble-averaged output from sea ice models suggest significant increases in vessel accessibility in September by midcentury (Smith & Stephenson, 2013), the seasonal length and variability of trans-Arctic shipping is not well understood. In addition, differences in ice extent due to inter-model variability reveal significant uncertainties in the magnitude and location of future vessel access. Here we present several scenarios of 21st-century trans-Arctic shipping as driven by sea ice output from CMIP5 models. Optimal vessel transits from North America and Europe to the Bering Strait are estimated for two periods representing present-day (2006-2015) and midcentury (2040-2059) conditions under two forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5/8.5), assuming Polar Class 6 (PC6) and open-water vessels (OW) with medium and no ice-breaking capability, respectively. Results illustrate a range of potential futures for shipping in the Arctic owing to differences in model choice, vessel capability, and climate forcing. Inter-model differences reveal the importance of model choice in devising projections for strategic planning by governments, environmental agencies, and the global maritime industry.

  8. Scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dornburg, Veronika; Hermann, Barbara G; Patel, Martin K

    2008-04-01

    Three scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals produced by means of white biotechnology are developed for Europe (EU-25) until the year 2050, and potential nonrenewable energy savings, greenhouse gas emission reduction, and land use consequences are analyzed. These scenarios assume benign, moderate, and disadvantageous conditions for biobased chemicals. The scenario analysis yields a broad range of values for the possible market development of white biotechnology chemicals, that is, resulting in a share of white biotechnology chemicals relative to all organic chemicals of about 7 (or 5 million tonnes), 17.5 (or 26 million tonnes), or 38% (or 113 million tonnes) in 2050. We conclude that under favorable conditions, white biotechnology enables substantial savings of nonrenewable energy use (NREU) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to the energy use of the future production of all organic chemicals from fossil resources. Savings of NREU reach up to 17% for starch crops and up to 31% for lignocellulosic feedstock by 2050, and saving percentages for GHG emissions are in a similar range. Parallel to these environmental benefits, economic advantages of up to 75 billion Euro production cost savings arise.

  9. Natural Products Towards the Discovery of Potential Future Antithrombotic Drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Md Asiful; Alam, Fahmida; Khalil, Md Ibrahim; Sasongko, Teguh Haryo; Gan, Siew Hua

    2016-01-01

    Globally, thrombosis-associated disorders are one of the main contributors to fatalities. Besides genetic influences, there are some acquired and environmental risk factors dominating thrombotic diseases. Although standard regimens have been used for a long time, many side effects still occur which can be life threatening. Therefore, natural products are good alternatives. Although the quest for antithrombotic natural products came to light only since the end of last century, in the last two decades, a considerable number of natural products showing antithrombotic activities (antiplatelet, anticoagulant and fibrinolytic) with no or minimal side effects have been reported. In this review, several natural products used as antithrombotic agents including medicinal plants, vegetables, fruits, spices and edible mushrooms which have been discovered in the last 15 years and their target sites (thrombogenic components, factors and thrombotic pathways) are described. In addition, the side effects, limitations and interactions of standard regimens with natural products are also discussed. The active compounds could serve as potential sources for future research on antithrombotic drug development. As a future direction, more advanced researches (in quest of the target cofactor or component involved in antithrombotic pathways) are warranted for the development of potential natural antithrombotic medications (alone or combined with standard regimens) to ensure maximum safety and efficacy.

  10. Database for potential hazards from future volcanic eruptions in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Melissa N.; Ramsey, David W.; Miller, C. Dan

    2011-01-01

    More than 500 volcanic vents have been identified in the State of California. At least 76 of these vents have erupted, some repeatedly, during the past 10,000 yr. Past volcanic activity has ranged in scale and type from small rhyolitic and basaltic eruptions through large catastrophic rhyolitic eruptions. Sooner or later, volcanoes in California will erupt again, and they could have serious impacts on the health and safety of the State's citizens as well as on its economy. This report describes the nature and probable distribution of potentially hazardous volcanic phenomena and their threat to people and property. It includes hazard-zonation maps that show areas relatively likely to be affected by future eruptions in California. This digital release contains information from maps of potential hazards from future volcanic eruptions in the state of California, published as Plate 1 in U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 1847. The main component of this digital release is a spatial database prepared using geographic information systems (GIS) applications. This release also contains links to files to view or print the map plate, main report text, and accompanying hazard tables from Bulletin 1847. It should be noted that much has been learned about the ages of eruptive events in the State of California since the publication of Bulletin 1847 in 1989. For the most up to date information on the status of California volcanoes, please refer to the U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Hazards Program website.

  11. Professional self-assessment of future health basics teachers as professionally important quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radchenko A.V.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: to theoretically substantiate and experimentally test professional self-assessment of future health basics teachers as professionally important quality. Material: 152 students participated in experiment. Results: assessment of images “I am real”, “I am student” and I am future professional” is rather high in most of students. The strength of these three images was assessed also approximately equally. But portion of average marks in indicator of image strength is much higher than in indicator of mark. Activity of three images differs a little and has significant quantity of average and high marks. Analysis of three main images’ wholeness witnesses that students’ self assessment is rather holistic. With it image “I am future professional” is formed on the base of image “I am student”. Dynamic of images’ self assessment witnesses that increasing of assessment and respect to image “I am future professional” depend on year of studying. Besides, assessment of strength and activity of this image also increases. Conclusions: in the process of studying students are oriented on professional formation as well as on formation of professionally important qualities, revelation of potential for self realization in the future. It was found that responsible attitude to professional functioning, future relations with children depend on self-assessment of formation.

  12. Future physics potential of CMS Phase II detector

    CERN Document Server

    Pozzobon, Nicola

    2015-01-01

    To extend the LHC physics program, it is foreseen to operate the LHC in the future with an unprecedented high luminosity. To maintain the experiment’s physics potential in such harsh environment, the detector will need to be upgraded. At the same time the detector acceptance will be extended and new features such as a L1 track trigger will be implemented. Simulation studies evaluated the performance of the new, proposed detector components in comparison to the present detector with the expected aging after 1000 fb$^{-1}$. The impact of the expected Phase II performance on representative physics channels is studied. The sensitivity to find new physics beyond the SM is significantly improved and will allow to extend the SUSY reach, search for dark matter and exotic long-lived signatures. Precision Higgs and standard model measurements will gain substantially due to the improved performance.

  13. Cyto- and genotoxicological assessment and functional characterization of N-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone-acrylic acid-based copolymeric hydrogels with potential for future use in wound healing applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirf, Dominik; Devery, Sinead M [Department of Life and Physical Science, Athlone Institute of Technology (Ireland); Higginbotham, Clement L [Materials Research Institute, Athlone Institute of Technology (Ireland); Rowan, Neil J, E-mail: sdevery@ait.i, E-mail: dkirf@ait.i, E-mail: chigginbotham@ait.i, E-mail: nrowan@ait.i [Department of Nursing and Health Science, Athlone Institute of Technology (Ireland)

    2010-06-01

    This study investigated the toxicity of N-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone-acrylic acid copolymer hydrogels crosslinked with ethylene glycol dimethacrylate or poly(ethylene glycol) dimethacrylate. There is a pressing need to establish the toxicity status of these new copolymers because they may find applications in future wound healing processes. Investigations revealed that the capacity of these hydrogels for swelling permitted the retention of high amounts of water yet still maintaining structural integrity. Reverse phase HPLC analysis suggested that unreacted monomeric base material was efficiently removed post-polymerization by applying an additional purification process. Subsequently, in vitro toxicity testing was performed utilizing direct and indirect contact exposure of the polymers to human keratinocytes (HaCaT) and human hepatoma (HepG2) cells. No indication of significant cell death was observed using the established MTT, neutral red (NR) and fluorescence-based toxicity endpoint indicators. In addition, the alkaline Comet assay showed no genotoxic effects following cell exposure to hydrogel extracts. Investigations at the nucleotide level using the Ames mutagenicity assay demonstrated no evidence of mutagenic activity associated with the polymers. Findings from this study demonstrated that these hydrogels are non-cytotoxic and further work can be carried out to investigate their potential as a wound-healing device that will impact positively on patient health and well-being.

  14. GIS based analysis of future district heating potential in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steffen; Möller, Bernd

    2013-01-01

    The physical placement of buildings is important when determining the potential for DH (district heating). Good locations for DH are mainly determined by having both a large heat demand within a certain area and having access to local heat resources. In recent years, the locations of buildings...... in Denmark have been mapped in a heat atlas which includes all buildings and their heat demands. This article focuses on developing a method for assessing the costs associated with supplying these buildings with DH. The analysis is based on the existing DH areas in Denmark. By finding the heat production...

  15. Polyphenols: Potential Future Arsenals in the Treatment of Diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solayman, Md; Ali, Yousuf; Alam, Fahmida; Islam, Md Asiful; Alam, Nadia; Khalil, Md Ibrahim; Gan, Siew Hua

    2016-01-01

    Diabetes mellitus (DM) is one of the most common endocrine metabolic disorders. In addition to exercise and diet, oral anti-diabetic drugs have been used as a part of the management strategy worldwide. Unfortunately, none of the conventional anti-diabetic drugs are without side effects, and these drugs pose an economic burden. Therefore, the investigation of novel anti-diabetic regimens is a major challenge for researchers, in which nature has been the primary resource for the discovery of potential therapeutics. Many plants have been shown to act as anti-diabetic agents, in which the main active constituents are believed to be polyphenols. Natural products containing high polyphenol levels can control carbohydrate metabolism by various mechanisms, such as protecting and restoring beta-cell integrity, enhancing insulin releasing activity, and increasing cellular glucose uptake. Blackberries, red grapes, apricots, eggplant and popular drinks such as coffee, cocoa and green tea are all rich in polyphenols, which may dampen insulin resistance and be natural alternatives in the treatment of diabetes. Therefore, the aim of this review is to report on the available anti-diabetic polyphenols (medicinal plants, fruits and vegetables), their mechanisms in the various pathways of DM and their correlations with DM. Additionally, this review emphasizes the types of polyphenols that could be potential future resources in the treatment of DM via either novel regimens or as supplementary agents.

  16. Status and future of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment in China

    OpenAIRE

    Dong, Q. L.; Barker, G. C.; Gorris, L.G.M.; Tian, M.S.; Song, X. Y.; Malakar, P.K.

    2015-01-01

    Since the implementation of the Food Safety Law of the People's Republic of China in 2009 use of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) has increased. QMRA is used to assess the risk posed to consumers by pathogenic bacteria which cause the majority of foodborne outbreaks in China. This review analyses the progress of QMRA research in China from 2000 to 2013 and discusses 3 possible improvements for the future. These improvements include planning and scoping to initiate QMRA, eff...

  17. Is Environmental Impact Assessment fulfilling its potential?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2014-01-01

    One of the topics receiving much attention in recent years is climate change and the potential of its integration in impact assessment, both in terms of achieving mitigation and adaptation. Renewable energy projects are part of the efforts to mitigate climate change, replacing the use of fossil...... in projects with inherent positive effects on climate change? This paper reviews practice, and takes up these questions based on a document study of 19 EIA reports of renewable energy projects in Denmark. The results show that climate change mitigation is included in 18 of the EIA reports reviewed, while...... fuel with CO2-neutral energy sources. A variety of these projects are subject to environmental impact assessment (EIA), which raises the following questions: What role does an impact assessment play? When is the project environmentally friendly? How are climate change-related impacts assessed...

  18. SIMULATION OF NET INFILTRATION FOR MODERN AND POTENTIAL FUTURE CLIMATES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J.A. Heveal

    2000-06-16

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) describes enhancements made to the infiltration model documented in Flint et al. (1996) and documents an analysis using the enhanced model to generate spatial and temporal distributions over a model domain encompassing the Yucca Mountain site, Nevada. Net infiltration is the component of infiltrated precipitation, snowmelt, or surface water run-on that has percolated below the zone of evapotranspiration as defined by the depth of the effective root zone, the average depth below the ground surface (at a given location) from which water is removed by evapotranspiration. The estimates of net infiltration are used for defining the upper boundary condition for the site-scale 3-dimensional Unsaturated-Zone Ground Water Flow and Transport (UZ flow and transport) Model (CRWMS M&O 2000a). The UZ flow and transport model is one of several process models abstracted by the Total System Performance Assessment model to evaluate expected performance of the potential repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, in terms of radionuclide transport (CRWMS M&O 1998). The net-infiltration model is important for assessing potential repository-system performance because output from this model provides the upper boundary condition for the UZ flow and transport model that is used to generate flow fields for evaluating potential radionuclide transport through the unsaturated zone. Estimates of net infiltration are provided as raster-based, 2-dimensional grids of spatially distributed, time-averaged rates for three different climate stages estimated as likely conditions for the next 10,000 years beyond the present. Each climate stage is represented using a lower bound, a mean, and an upper bound climate and corresponding net-infiltration scenario for representing uncertainty in the characterization of daily climate conditions for each climate stage, as well as potential climate variability within each climate stage. The set of nine raster grid maps provide spatially

  19. The Abiotic Depletion Potential: Background, Updates, and Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauran van Oers

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Depletion of abiotic resources is a much disputed impact category in life cycle assessment (LCA. The reason is that the problem can be defined in different ways. Furthermore, within a specified problem definition, many choices can still be made regarding which parameters to include in the characterization model and which data to use. This article gives an overview of the problem definition and the choices that have been made when defining the abiotic depletion potentials (ADPs for a characterization model for abiotic resource depletion in LCA. Updates of the ADPs since 2002 are also briefly discussed. Finally, some possible new developments of the impact category of abiotic resource depletion are suggested, such as redefining the depletion problem as a dilution problem. This means taking the reserves in the environment and the economy into account in the reserve parameter and using leakage from the economy, instead of extraction rate, as a dilution parameter.

  20. Status and future of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Q L; Barker, G C; Gorris, L G M; Tian, M S; Song, X Y; Malakar, P K

    2015-03-01

    Since the implementation of the Food Safety Law of the People's Republic of China in 2009 use of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) has increased. QMRA is used to assess the risk posed to consumers by pathogenic bacteria which cause the majority of foodborne outbreaks in China. This review analyses the progress of QMRA research in China from 2000 to 2013 and discusses 3 possible improvements for the future. These improvements include planning and scoping to initiate QMRA, effectiveness of microbial risk assessment utility for risk management decision making, and application of QMRA to establish appropriate Food Safety Objectives.

  1. The potential natural vegetation of eastern Africa distribution, conservation and future changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Breugel, Paulo

    Species and ecosystems are increasingly threatened by the human activities, while climate change projections show that eastern Africa may face considerable changes in temperature and rainfall regimes. These changes pose huge challenges for the prioritization and implementation of conservation...... and sustainable management of the natural environment. There is therefore an urgent need for information that allow us to assess the current status of the region’s natural environment and to predict how this may change under future climates. This thesis aims to improve our knowledge on natural vegetation...... distribution in eastern African, examine how this may change under future climates, and how this can be used to identify conservation priorities in the region. Chapter 1 presents a brief overview of the concept of the potential natural vegetation (PNV), synthesizes the general findings and discusses future...

  2. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long‐term land‐use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed on the San Pedro River Basin to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time. This methodology was then expanded and utilized to characterize the changing hydrology on the South Platte River Basin. Future urban growth is represented by housingdensity maps generated in decadal intervals from 2010 to 2100, produced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Climate and Land‐Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize hydrologic impacts from future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The objectives of this project were to 1) develop and describe a methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as anapproach to evaluate basin‐wide impacts of development on water‐quantity and ‐quality, 2) present initial results from the application of the methodology to

  3. Assessment of potential adjuvanticity of Cry proteins

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joshi, Saurabh S; Barnett, Brian; Doerrer, Nancy G

    2016-01-01

    the potential immuno-adjuvant effects of Cry proteins. These studies had limitations in study design. The studies used animal models with extremely high doses of Cry proteins, which when given using the ig route were co-administered with an adjuvant. Although the presumption exists that Cry proteins may have......, the history of safe use of Cry proteins in foods, safety of the Bt donor organisms, and pre-market weight-of-evidence-based safety assessments for GM crops....

  4. Back to the Future: Personality and Assessment and Personality Development

    OpenAIRE

    Roberts, Brent W.

    2009-01-01

    In this essay I consider the future of personality development in light of the past effects of Personality and Assessment on the field of personality in general and personality development in particular. The essay is organized around 1) the effect of Mischel's book on the foundational theories informing personality development; 2) definitions of personality traits; 3) an alternative model of personality traits, described as the sociogenomic model of personality traits, that can bridge the div...

  5. Futurism: Its Potential and Actual Role in Master of Business Administration (MBA) Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Robin T.

    2006-01-01

    In this article, the author highlights the potential role of "futurism" in master of business administration (MBA) curricula and the conceivable offerings of futurism to business planners. This article serves as a corollary to educators in MBA business education and concerns to the nature of futurism, the benefits of futurism to…

  6. Futurism: Its Potential and Actual Role in Master of Business Administration (MBA) Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Robin T.

    2006-01-01

    In this article, the author highlights the potential role of "futurism" in master of business administration (MBA) curricula and the conceivable offerings of futurism to business planners. This article serves as a corollary to educators in MBA business education and concerns to the nature of futurism, the benefits of futurism to managerial…

  7. Assessing the proarrhythmic potential of drugs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Morten Bækgaard; Matz, Jørgen; Volders, Paul G A;

    2006-01-01

    Torsades de pointes (TdP) is a potentially lethal cardiac arrhythmia that can occur as an unwanted adverse effect of various pharmacological therapies. Before a drug is approved for marketing, its effects on cardiac repolarisation are examined clinically and experimentally. This paper expresses...... the opinion that effects on repolarisation duration cannot directly be translated to risk of proarrhythmia. Current safety assessments of drugs only involve repolarisation assays, however the proarrhythmic profile can only be determined in the predisposed model. The availability of these proarrhythmic animal...... models is emphasised in the present paper. It is feasible for the pharmaceutical industry to establish one or more of these proarrhythmic animal models and large benefits are potentially available if pharmaceutical industries and patient-care authorities embraced these models. Furthermore, suggested...

  8. THE ASSESSMENT OF CYBERBULLYING: THE PRESENT SITUATION AND FUTURE CHALLENGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Lucas-Molina

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the last decade there has been a significant increase in the interest of the educational and scientific community on cyberbullying, a new form of peer abuse and intimidation. Despite the widespread proliferation of studies and assessment tools on the phenomenon, there are still major conceptual and methodological gaps. This paper offers a comprehensive and updated review of the results of research on the definition of the construct, its prevalence and its impact on the people involved. Finally, it focuses specifically on the assessment of the construct and provides a brief review of the general and psychometric characteristics of the instruments used in some of the most relevant national and international studies conducted on the subject. This work places special emphasis on the present and future challenges and concludes with a number of general recommendations intended to guide the correct selection and/or construction of assessment instruments in this field of study.

  9. Some Suggested Future Directions of Quantitative Resource Assessments

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Future quantitative assessments will be expected to estimate quantities, values, and locations of undiscovered mineral resources in a form that conveys both economic viability and uncertainty associated with the resources. Historically, declining metal prices point to the need for larger deposits over time. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the greatest opportunity for reducing uncertainty in assessments lies in lowering uncertainty associated with tonnage estimates. Of all errors possible in assessments, those affecting tonnage estimates are by far the most important. Selecting the correct deposit model is the most important way of controlling errors because of the dominance of tonnage-deposit models are the best known predictors of tonnage. Much of the surface is covered with apparently barren rocks and sediments in many large regions. Because many exposed mineral deposits are believed to have been found, a prime concern is the presence of possible mineralized rock under cover. Assessments of areas with resources under cover must rely on extrapolation from surrounding areas, new geologic maps of rocks under cover, or analogy with other well-explored areas that can be considered training tracts. Cover has a profound effect on uncertainty and on methods and procedures of assessments because geology is seldom known and geophysical methods typically have attenuated responses. Many earlier assessment methods were based on relationships of geochemical and geophysical variables to deposits learned from deposits exposed on the surface—these will need to be relearned based on covered deposits. Mineral-deposit models are important in quantitative resource assessments for two reasons: (1) grades and tonnages of most deposit types are significantly different, and (2) deposit types are present in different geologic settings that can be identified from geologic maps. Mineral-deposit models are the keystone in combining the diverse geoscience information on geology

  10. Future of computing technology in physics - the potentials and pitfalls

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brenner, A.E.

    1984-02-01

    The impact of the developments of modern digital computers is discussed, especially with respect to physics research in the future. The effects of large data processing capability and increasing rates at which data can be acquired and processed are considered. (GHT)

  11. Environmental Assessment of Possible Future Waste Management Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yevgeniya Arushanyan

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Waste management has developed in many countries and will continue to do so. Changes towards increased recovery of resources in order to meet climate targets and for society to transition to a circular economy are important driving forces. Scenarios are important tools for planning and assessing possible future developments and policies. This paper presents a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA model for environmental assessments of scenarios and waste management policy instruments. It is unique by including almost all waste flows in a country and also allow for including waste prevention. The results show that the environmental impacts from future waste management scenarios in Sweden can differ a lot. Waste management will continue to contribute with environmental benefits, but less so in the more sustainable future scenarios, since the surrounding energy and transportation systems will be less polluting and also because less waste will be produced. Valuation results indicate that climate change, human toxicity and resource depletion are the most important environmental impact categories for the Swedish waste management system. Emissions of fossil CO2 from waste incineration will continue to be a major source of environmental impacts in these scenarios. The model is used for analyzing environmental impacts of several policy instruments including weight based collection fee, incineration tax, a resource tax and inclusion of waste in a green electricity certification system. The effect of the studied policy instruments in isolation are in most cases limited, suggesting that stronger policy instruments as well as combinations are necessary to reach policy goals as set out in for example the EU action plan on circular economy.

  12. Postactivation Potentiation Biases Maximal Isometric Strength Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Coelho Rabello Lima

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Postactivation potentiation (PAP is known to enhance force production. Maximal isometric strength assessment protocols usually consist of two or more maximal voluntary isometric contractions (MVCs. The objective of this study was to determine if PAP would influence isometric strength assessment. Healthy male volunteers (n=23 performed two five-second MVCs separated by a 180-seconds interval. Changes in isometric peak torque (IPT, time to achieve it (tPTI, contractile impulse (CI, root mean square of the electromyographic signal during PTI (RMS, and rate of torque development (RTD, in different intervals, were measured. Significant increases in IPT (240.6 ± 55.7 N·m versus 248.9 ± 55.1 N·m, RTD (746 ± 152 N·m·s−1versus 727 ± 158 N·m·s−1, and RMS (59.1 ± 12.2% RMSMAX  versus 54.8 ± 9.4% RMSMAX were found on the second MVC. tPTI decreased significantly on the second MVC (2373 ± 1200 ms versus 2784 ± 1226 ms. We conclude that a first MVC leads to PAP that elicits significant enhancements in strength-related variables of a second MVC performed 180 seconds later. If disconsidered, this phenomenon might bias maximal isometric strength assessment, overestimating some of these variables.

  13. High efficiency USC power plant - present status and future potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blum, R. [Faelleskemikerne I/S Fynsvaerket (Denmark); Hald, J. [Elsam/Elkraft/TU Denmark (Denmark)

    1998-12-31

    Increasing demand for energy production with low impact on the environment and minimised fuel consumption can be met with high efficient coal fired power plants with advanced steam parameters. An important key to this improvement is the development of high temperature materials with optimised mechanical strength. Based on the results of more than ten years of development a coal fired power plant with an efficiency above 50 % can now be realised. Future developments focus on materials which enable an efficiency of 52-55 %. (orig.) 25 refs.

  14. Future changes in climatic water balance determine potential for transformational shifts in Australian fire regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boer, Matthias M.; Bowman, David M. J. S.; Murphy, Brett P.; Cary, Geoffrey J.; Cochrane, Mark A.; Fensham, Roderick J.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Price, Owen F.; Resco De Dios, Víctor; Williams, Richard J.; Bradstock, Ross A.

    2016-06-01

    Most studies of climate change effects on fire regimes assume a gradual reorganization of pyrogeographic patterns and have not considered the potential for transformational changes in the climate-vegetation-fire relationships underlying continental-scale fire regimes. Here, we model current fire activity levels in Australia as a function of mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) and potential evapotranspiration (E 0), as proxies for fuel productivity and fuel drying potential. We distinguish two domains in E,{E}0 space according to the dominant constraint on fire activity being either fuel productivity (PL-type fire) or fuel dryness (DL-type fire) and show that the affinity to these domains is related to fuel type. We propose to assess the potential for transformational shifts in fire type from the difference in the affinity to either domain under a baseline climate and projected future climate. Under the projected climate changes potential for a transformational shift from DL- to PL-type fire was predicted for mesic savanna woodland in the north and for eucalypt forests in coastal areas of the south-west and along the Continental Divide in the south-east of the continent. Potential for a shift from PL- to DL-type fire was predicted for a narrow zone of eucalypt savanna woodland in the north-east.

  15. Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendricks, Robert C.; Daggett, David L.; Anast, Peter; Lowery, Nathan

    2011-01-01

    In recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.

  16. The perceptions of creativity and creative potentials of future kindergarten and class teachers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milovanović Radmila

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Research studies on teaching practice have shown that not enough attention is paid to the problem of children’s creativity development in our schools in spite of the fact that the development of creative potentials in preschool institutions and school figures as one of the priority educational tasks. The perceptions of creativity and creative potentials of future kindergarten and class teachers can serve as an important basis for encouraging the development of their professional competences. This research was aimed at examining students’ knowledge and beliefs on creativity, obtaining self-assessment of their own creative potentials and determining the level of expression of students’ creativity based on their abilities of creative problem-solving. The sample included the students of the Faculty of Pedagogical Sciences in Jagodina and Teacher Training College in Vranje (N=300. For examining students’ creative potentials we used the Epstein Creativity Competences Inventory and a version of the Saugstad & Rahaim Problem Solving Tests. Research results have confirmed that students possess the knowledge and the beliefs compatible with the modern scientific beliefs on creativity. They assess their own creative potentials as very high and they do possess them. The obtained results can serve as a better foundation for working with students towards fostering the development of their creative potentials and professional competences. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 179034: Od podsticanja inicijative, saradnje, stvaralaštva u obrazovanju do novih uloga i identiteta u društvu i br. 47008: Unapređivanje kvaliteta i dostupnosti obrazovanja u procesima modernizacije Srbije

  17. THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF TEHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT ON FUTURE JOBS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ŞTEFAN COSMIN-ALEXANDRU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Technological developments in the last decades have reached unbelievable levels, what was once the domain of science fiction movies is now a reality, and this developments have left few areas of human life unchanged. In this paper we aim to explore the changes that technology brought to the way people work and, especially to the way people will work. While we acknowledge that any prediction about the future is almost always proved wrong from the get go, we think that the importance of the subject warrants the risk. The paper draws its routes from some of the most influential theories about how technology will impact the way people work and is main objective is to spark a conversation about the merits of lack thereof that they contain. It is by no means an extensive work, but rather the beginning of a research focus that will, hopefully bring new insights in the above mentioned field. For the sake of convenience we have grouped the predictions in three categories: “Business as usual”, “Lateral developments” and “All bets are off” based on how profound the change would be. Each of this levels offers different benefits, as well as different challenges, our hope is that throw a process of thorough consideration solutions can be generated to maximize the former while minimizing the latter.

  18. Assessment of potential adjuvanticity of Cry proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Saurabh S; Barnett, Brian; Doerrer, Nancy G; Glenn, Kevin; Herman, Rod A; Herouet-Guicheney, Corinne; Hunst, Penny; Kough, John; Ladics, Gregory S; McClain, Scott; Papineni, Sabitha; Poulsen, Lars K; Rascle, Jean-Baptiste; Tao, Ai-Lin; van Ree, Ronald; Ward, Jason; Bowman, Christal C

    2016-08-01

    Genetically modified (GM) crops have achieved success in the marketplace and their benefits extend beyond the overall increase in harvest yields to include lowered use of insecticides and decreased carbon dioxide emissions. The most widely grown GM crops contain gene/s for targeted insect protection, herbicide tolerance, or both. Plant expression of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) crystal (Cry) insecticidal proteins have been the primary way to impart insect resistance in GM crops. Although deemed safe by regulatory agencies globally, previous studies have been the basis for discussions around the potential immuno-adjuvant effects of Cry proteins. These studies had limitations in study design. The studies used animal models with extremely high doses of Cry proteins, which when given using the ig route were co-administered with an adjuvant. Although the presumption exists that Cry proteins may have immunostimulatory activity and therefore an adjuvanticity risk, the evidence shows that Cry proteins are expressed at very low levels in GM crops and are unlikely to function as adjuvants. This conclusion is based on critical review of the published literature on the effects of immunomodulation by Cry proteins, the history of safe use of Cry proteins in foods, safety of the Bt donor organisms, and pre-market weight-of-evidence-based safety assessments for GM crops.

  19. Stem cells: A potential regenerative future in dentistry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumit Narang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the field of dentistry has embossed its presence by taking major leaps in research and further bringing it into practice. The most valuable ongoing research in regenerative dentistry is the study on stem cells. It was instituted that stem cells grow rapidly and have the potential to form specialized dentin, bone, and neuronal cells. These neuronal cells can be used for dental therapies and can provide better treatment options for patients. The stem cells based therapies could help in new advances in treating damaged teeth, inducing bone regeneration and treating neural injury as well.

  20. California Shoreline Sand Retention: Existing Structure Performance and Future Potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinsman, N. E.; Griggs, G. B.

    2008-12-01

    Amidst rising sea level, climate change and expanding coastal populations, sandy beaches are frequently exposed to erosional processes. Effective sea level rise will lead to recreational beach loss as a result of coastal inundation. Beach nourishment is growing in popularity as a mitigation approach to meet the increasing need to protect coastal resources. The practice of beach nourishment along high energy shorelines, such as in California, is often improved by the construction of sediment retention structures (groins) to enhance project lifespans. However, our current ability to design effective littoral barriers is extremely limited. An underutilized and cost-effective resource for critically analyzing engineered retention structure performance is the record of existing structures within California. The impacts of 205 structures along California's 1700 km shoreline have been systematically explored though measurements collected from aerial imagery and historic shoreline positions. The findings of this study suggest that approximately 30 million m3 of sand and 18% of California's total exposed sandy beach area is presently retained in fillet and salient beaches associated with man-made structures such as groins, breakwaters, piers and jetties. Preliminary results suggest statistically significant correlations between structure effectiveness and key characteristics such as orientation, littoral cell position and construction materials. The central product of this study is a complete and robust GIS catalog of retention structures along California's coastline. A detailed analysis of historic structure performance combined with a systematically measured record of structure characteristics for the entire state results in a useful product to help coastal planners use the lessons of the past to plan future beach management.

  1. Current and future biosimilars: potential practical applications in rheumatology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noaiseh G

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Ghaith Noaiseh, Larry Moreland Division of Rheumatology and Clinical Immunology, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, PA, USA Abstract: The use of biologics in the field of rheumatology has dramatically changed the way we treat rheumatic diseases. As the patent-expiration dates for many tumor necrosis-factor inhibitors and other biological agents are approaching, many large pharmaceutical companies are developing and testing their own versions of these agents; this is due to the biologics' huge revenue potential. The potential cost saving is a major incentive for their development. Producing a biosimilar is not an easy task, as minor changes in the production process can have profound immunological and clinical consequences. The European Medicines Agency (EMA has led the efforts in issuing guidelines to streamline the approval process for applicants interested in developing biosimilars. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA has followed the EMA track and has guidelines in place, but the process varies in different countries. The approval process is far more complex than the one used for the approval of small-molecule generic products. Biosimilars should be developed according to the strict rules set forth by the EMA and FDA; other intended copies are available for clinical use in different parts of the world, but should not be considered biosimilars, as they do not fulfill the stringent definition criteria. Biosimilars will soon be in the market, and their use in rheumatic diseases will likely change our treatment approach. Rheumatologists and other health-care professionals will soon be faced with many questions and will have to be familiarized with the concept and the points of debate. Keywords: biosimilar, rheumatology, biologic, generic, TNF inhibitor, rituximab

  2. Elements of a regulatory strategy for the consideration of future human actions in safety assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Wickham, S.M.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

    1999-09-01

    The objective of this report is to discuss issues that should be considered in the development of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in any forthcoming license application for a deep repository for spent fuel in Sweden and for sites of other repositories. The report comprises an outline of key issues concerning the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, reviews of regulatory developments, recent safety assessments and supporting studies, and international initiatives on the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, and the principal elements of a regulatory strategy. Performance assessments (PAs) are generally accepted as providing illustrations of system performance under given sets of assumptions. The results of PAs are clearer and easier tounderstand if certain large uncertainties are accounted for by determining performance under several different sets of assumptions or scenarios, each of which defines a possible evolution of the disposal system. A number of assumptions can be made that would restrict the scope of an assessment without reducing the credibility of the corresponding safety case. Reducing speculation about technological development, by assuming that the techniques used in future human activities are similar to those currently in use in the region or at similar sites, will simplify the assessment. A distinction is generally made between inadvertent and intentional intrusion, with intentional activities excluded because society cannot protect future populations from their own actions if they understand the potential consequences. A division of human activities into 'recent and ongoing' and 'future' activities considers not only the timing of the activities but also the degree of control or influence that can be imposed on them. Recent and ongoing human activities are those that affect an area beyond the immediate vicinity of the disposal facility and which neither the proponent

  3. Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosa Björk Thorolfsdottir

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25-74. Calculations were based on combining: i data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland, ii population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study, and iii effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses. Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: (1 If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. (2 If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3 Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040. CONCLUSIONS: The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future.

  4. Alternative future scenarios for the SPS comparative assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayres, R.U.; Ridker, R.G.; Watson, W.D. Jr.; Arnold, J.; Tayi, G.

    1980-08-01

    The objective of the comparative assessment is to develop an initial understanding of the SPS with respect to a limited set of energy alternatives. A comparative methodology report describes the multi-step process in the comparative assessment. The first step is the selection and characterization of alternative energy systems. Terrestrial alternatives are selected, and their cost, performance, and environmental and social attributes are specified for use in the comparison with the SPS in the post-2000 era. Data on alternative technologies were sought from previous research and from other comparisons. The object of this study is to provide a futures framework for evaluating SPS (i.e., factor prices, primary energy prices, and energy demands for the US from 1980 to 2030). The economic/energy interactions are discussed, and a number of specific modelling schemes that have been used for long-range forecasting purposes are described. This discussion provides the rationale for the choice of a specific model and methodology, which is described. Long-range cost assumptions used in the forecast are detailed, and the basis for the selection of specific scenarios follows. Results of the analysis are detailed. (WHK)

  5. Traumatic brain injury: future assessment tools and treatment prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven R Flanagan

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Steven R Flanagan1, Joshua B Cantor2, Teresa A Ashman21New York University School of Medicine, The Rusk Institute of Rehabilitation, New York, NY, USA; 2Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, NY, USAAbstract: Traumatic brain injury (TBI is widespread and leads to death and disability in millions of individuals around the world each year. Overall incidence and prevalence of TBI are likely to increase in absolute terms in the future. Tackling the problem of treating TBI successfully will require improvements in the understanding of normal cerebral anatomy, physiology, and function throughout the lifespan, as well as the pathological and recuperative responses that result from trauma. New treatment approaches and combinations will need to be targeted to the heterogeneous needs of TBI populations. This article explores and evaluates the research evidence in areas that will likely lead to a reduction in TBI-related morbidity and improved outcomes. These include emerging assessment instruments and techniques in areas of structural/chemical and functional neuroimaging and neuropsychology, advances in the realms of cell-based therapies and genetics, promising cognitive rehabilitation techniques including cognitive remediation and the use of electronic technologies including assistive devices and virtual reality, and the emerging field of complementary and alternative medicine.Keywords: traumatic brain injury, assessments, treatments

  6. An assessment of future volcanic hazard at Yucca Mountain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hackett, W.R. [WRH Associates, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)

    1996-12-01

    Preliminary results and methods of a volcanic-hazards assessment for the proposed high-level nuclear-waste repository at Yucca Mountain are given. The most significant hazards are potential intersection of the repository by a basaltic dike, or structural disruption associated with dike intrusion. Two approaches are taken, which give similar results: homogeneous volcanic-source zones and spatial smoothing. The preliminary computed probabilities of intersection of the Yucca Mountain repository by a basaltic dike are in the range 10{sup -7} to 10{sup -8} per year.

  7. High temperature solar furnace: current applications and future potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjorndalen, N. [Dalhousie Univ., Faculty of Engineering, Halifax, NS (Canada)

    2003-02-15

    The high temperature solar furnace can offer great opportunities for the production of many types of products worldwide, but recent advances in this technology have been limited to metal reduction. The production of semiconductors, which are utilized to a great extent in the electronic industry, is a viable option for this technology that has been overlooked. Especially where sand and sunlight are plentiful (countries that surround the equator), silicon chips produced with a solar furnace can have great economical value. This paper describes current and potential solar furnace technologies. The components of the solar furnace are described, as well as metal reduction processes including zinc and aluminum production. The viability of silicon chip production is also examined. The possibilities for other product development using an extremely (up to 10,000 deg C) high temperature solar furnace are also discussed. Economically, the benefits of solar furnaces are great, with only high initial start-up costs and little operation costs. Metal reduction processes can also be enhanced with high temperature solar furnaces in that plugging problems are eliminated. By replacing conventional furnaces, such as blast and electric arc furnaces, with a high temperature solar furnace, CO{sub 2} emissions and energy consumption can be greatly reduced, which will bring in added dividends to the society. (Author)

  8. The future of nursing: career choices in potential student nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitehead, Elizabeth; Mason, Tom; Ellis, Jackie

    Young people leaving schools and sixth-form colleges have the opportunity to choose a career path from an increasing number of courses in colleges of further and higher education. Nursing studies are now competing with a range of health-related disciplines such as health studies, psychology and complementary therapy. Compared with nursing studies, many of these courses appear more exciting and appealing to students who are in the process of choosing a career or programme of study. While the increased choice is a positive move for students, it may contribute to the shortage of students currently entering some areas of nursing. Indeed, some specialties in nursing, including mental health and learning disabilities, are so depleted in students that they are reaching a point of crisis. There is also concern that recruitment into nursing remains predominately female and white British. Given the diversity of the UK population and the reliance on school leavers as a potential source of supply, it is important to understand why male students and those from multiracial and multicultural environments choose, or do not choose, nursing studies. This research study involved a sample of 106 16-year-old students from three secondary schools in the north-west and south-east of England. The questionnaire results, collected in schools, revealed that students held traditional views or knew very little about the nursing profession.

  9. Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D. Levitt

    2004-11-09

    The purpose of this model report is to document the infiltration model used to estimate upper-bound, mean, and lower-bound spatially-distributed average annual net infiltration rates for present-day and potential future climates at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Net infiltration is the component of infiltrated precipitation, snowmelt, or surface water run-on that has percolated below the zone of evapotranspiration as defined by the depth of the effective root zone. The estimates of net infiltration are primarily used for defining the upper boundary condition for the site-scale three-dimensional unsaturated zone (UZ) model. The UZ flow model is one of several process models abstracted by the total system performance assessment (TSPA) model used to evaluate performance of the repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The net-infiltration model is important for assessing repository-system performance because output from this model provides the upper boundary condition for the UZ flow model used to generate flow fields; water percolating downward from the UZ will be the principal means by which radionuclides are potentially released to the saturated zone (SZ). The SZ is the principal pathway to the biosphere where the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) is exposed to radionuclides.

  10. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2016-11-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  11. Is ambiguity tolerance malleable? Experimental evidence with potential implications for future research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endres, Megan L.; Camp, Richaurd; Milner, Morgan

    2015-01-01

    We conducted two research studies to address the malleability of tolerance of ambiguity (TA) by manipulating situational ambiguity. Students participated in a semester-end assessment of their management skills (n = 306). In Study 1, students in low and moderate ambiguity conditions had significantly higher post-experiment TA, more positive change in self-efficacy, and marginally higher faculty ratings. In Study 2, a control group (n = 103) did not participate in the assessment and was established for comparison to the first study results. The Study 2 students reported TA significantly lower than Study 1 students in the low and moderate ambiguity conditions. The control group TA was not significantly different from that of the Study 1 high ambiguity condition. This further suggested TA’s situational malleability, as those who had controlled access to structured information appeared to have increased their TA over that observed in the other two groups. These results suggest that TA may be malleable. We review the relevant literature, offer hypotheses, report our analyses and findings, and then propose future research, and potential prescriptive applications in such areas as management development, assessment, and decision-making. PMID:26042059

  12. Is ambiguity tolerance malleable? Experimental evidence with potential implications for future research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan L Endres

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available We conducted two research studies to address the malleability of TA by manipulating situational ambiguity. Students participated in a semester-end assessment of their management skills (n = 306. In Study 1, students in low and moderate ambiguity conditions had significantly higher post-experiment TA, more positive change in self-efficacy, and marginally higher faculty ratings. In Study 2, a control group (n = 103 did not participate in the assessment and was established for comparison to the first study results. The Study 2 students reported TA significantly lower than Study 1 students in the low and moderate ambiguity conditions. The control group TA was not significantly different from that of the Study 1 high ambiguity condition. This further suggested TA’s situational malleability, as those who had controlled access to structured information appeared to have increased their TA over that observed in the other two groups. These results suggest that TA may be malleable. We review the relevant literature, offer hypotheses, report our analyses and findings, and then propose future research and potential prescriptive applications in such areas as management development, assessment, and decision-making.

  13. Is ambiguity tolerance malleable? Experimental evidence with potential implications for future research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endres, Megan L; Camp, Richaurd; Milner, Morgan

    2015-01-01

    We conducted two research studies to address the malleability of tolerance of ambiguity (TA) by manipulating situational ambiguity. Students participated in a semester-end assessment of their management skills (n = 306). In Study 1, students in low and moderate ambiguity conditions had significantly higher post-experiment TA, more positive change in self-efficacy, and marginally higher faculty ratings. In Study 2, a control group (n = 103) did not participate in the assessment and was established for comparison to the first study results. The Study 2 students reported TA significantly lower than Study 1 students in the low and moderate ambiguity conditions. The control group TA was not significantly different from that of the Study 1 high ambiguity condition. This further suggested TA's situational malleability, as those who had controlled access to structured information appeared to have increased their TA over that observed in the other two groups. These results suggest that TA may be malleable. We review the relevant literature, offer hypotheses, report our analyses and findings, and then propose future research, and potential prescriptive applications in such areas as management development, assessment, and decision-making.

  14. Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Retèl Valesca P

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. Methods To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005 until the future (2020. Results In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY, meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. Conclusions When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process

  15. Risk assessment of the impact of future volcanic eruptions on direct normal irradiance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagh Nielsen, Kristian; Blanc, Philippe; Vignola, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Stratospheric sulfate aerosols from Plinian volcanic eruptions affect the solar surface irradiance forcing by scattering the solar radiation as it passes through the Earth atmosphere. Since these aerosols have high single scattering albedos they mostly affect direct normal irradiances (DNI). The effect on global horizontal irradiance (GHI) is less because some of the scattered irradiance reaches the surface as diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) and adds to the GHI. DNI is the essential input to concentrating solar thermal electric power (CSP/STE) and concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) plants. Therefore, an assessment of the future potential variability in the DNI resource caused by Plinian volcanic eruptions is desirable. Based on investigations of the El Chichón and Pinatubo eruptions, the microphysical, and thereby optical, properties of the stratospheric sulfate aerosols are well known. Given these, radiative transfer computations of the DNI resource can be made. The DNI resource includes forward scattered irradiance within the acceptance angle of a given CSP/STE or CPV plant. The rarity of Plinian eruptions poses a challenge for assessing the statistical risk of future eruptions and its potential of risk in the electricity production. Here we present and discuss methods to account for these potential volcanic eruptions for technical and economical studies including scenarios with very high probability of exceedance (e.g. P99 scenarios) for risk assessment of DNI-based solar power projects.

  16. Learning Potential Assessment: Theoretical, Methodological and Practical Issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamers, J. H. M., Ed.; Sijtsma, K., Ed.; Ruijssenaars, A. J. J. M., Ed.

    The first part of this volume is concerned with theoretical and conceptual issues concerning learning potential assessment. The second part deals with methodological and measurement issues in learning potential assessment, and the third part is devoted to research projects and practical applications of learning potential tests. The following…

  17. Testing and evaluation: the present and future of the assessment of medical professionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haist, Steven A; Butler, Agata P; Paniagua, Miguel A

    2017-03-01

    The aim of this review is to highlight recent and potential future enhancements to the United States Licensing Examination (USMLE) program. The USMLE program is co-owned by the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) and the Federation of State Medical Boards. The USMLE includes four examinations: Step 1, Step 2 Clinical Knowledge, Step 2 Clinical Skills, and Step 3; every graduate of Liaison Committee on Medical Education-accredited allopathic medical schools and all international medical graduates must pass this examination series to practice medicine in the United States. From 2006 to 2009, the program underwent an indepth review resulting in five accepted recommendations. These recommendations have been the primary driver for many of the recent enhancements, such as an increased emphasis on foundational science and changes in the clinical skills examination, including more advanced communication skills assessment. These recommendations will continue to inform future changes such as access to references (e.g., a map of metabolic pathways) or decision-making tools for use during the examination. The NBME also provides assessment services globally to medical schools, students, residency programs, and residents. In 2015, >550,000 assessments were provided through the subject examination program, NBME self-assessment services, and customized assessment services.

  18. Customer satisfaction and customer loyalty as predictors of future business potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskildsen, Jacob Kjær; Kristensen, Kai

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyses the relationship between customer satisfaction, customer loyalty and the future business potential of existing customers. The data for the analysis come from the Danish Customer Satisfaction Index 2006. Here a total of approximately 2000 private customers evaluated...

  19. Future yields assessment of bioenergy crops in relation to climate change and technological development in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvatore L. Cosentino

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Bioenergy crops are expected to play an important role in reducing CO2 emission, in energy supply and in European energy policy. However, a sustainable bioenergy supply must be resilient to climate change and the impacts on agriculture at both global and regional scale. The purpose of this study was to forecast the potential distribution of several bioenergy crops based on agronomic and environmental constrains under current conditions and future scenarios (2020 and 2030 in European Union. Potential biomass yield, according to the category end use product achievable in each environmental zone of Europe at present and in the future available land have been also studied. Future yields were assessed according to two factors: technological development and climate change: the former was based on prospect of DG-Agriculture for conventional crops and expert judgments for bioenergy crops, while the latter based on relevant research papers and literature reviews which used site-specific crop growth models. Yields are expected to increase in northern Europe due to climate change and technological development, while in southerneastern Europe the negative effect of climate change will be mitigated by the technological development. The estimated total biomass production in Europe, on the basis of future yields and surplus land made available for energy crops, may not be sufficient to meet the needs of bioenergy supply as claimed in the European directive 2009/28/EC.

  20. Analysis of Potential Future Climate and Climate Extremes in the Brazos Headwaters Basin, Texas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ripendra Awal

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Texas’ fast-growing economy and population, coupled with cycles of droughts due to climate change, are creating an insatiable demand for water and an increasing need to understand the potential impacts of future climates and climate extremes on the state’s water resources. The objective of this study was to determine potential future climates and climate extremes; and to assess spatial and temporal changes in precipitation (Prec, and minimum and maximum temperature (Tmin and Tmax, respectively, in the Brazos Headwaters Basin under three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1 for three future periods: 2020s (2011–2030, 2055s (2046–2065, and 2090s (2080–2099. Daily gridded climate data obtained from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR were used to downscale outputs from 15 General Circulation Models (GCMs using the Long Ashton Research Station–Weather Generator (LARS-WG model. Results indicate that basin average Tmin and Tmax will increase; however, annual precipitation will decrease for all periods. Annual precipitation will decrease by up to 5.2% and 6.8% in the 2055s and 2090s, respectively. However, in some locations in the basin, up to a 14% decrease in precipitation is projected in the 2090s under the A2 (high emissions scenario. Overall, the northwestern and southern part of the Brazos Headwaters Basin will experience greater decreases in precipitation. Moreover, precipitation indices of the number of wet days (prec ≥ 5 mm and heavy precipitation days (prec ≥ 10 mm are projected to slightly decrease for all future periods. On the other hand, Tmin and Tmax will increase by 2 and 3 °C on average in the 2055s and 2090s, respectively. Mostly, projected increases in Tmin and Tmax will be in the upper range in the southern and southeastern part of the basin. Temperature indices of frost (Tmin < 0 °C and ice days (Tmax < 0 °C are projected to decrease, while tropical nights (Tmin > 20 °C and summer days (Tmax

  1. The future of Yellowcake: a global assessment of uranium resources and mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudd, Gavin M

    2014-02-15

    Uranium (U) mining remains controversial in many parts of the world, especially in a post-Fukushima context, and often in areas with significant U resources. Although nuclear proponents point to the relatively low carbon intensity of nuclear power compared to fossil fuels, opponents argue that this will be eroded in the future as ore grades decline and energy and greenhouse gas emissions (GGEs) intensity increases as a result. Invariably both sides fail to make use of the increasingly available data reported by some U mines through sustainability reporting - allowing a comprehensive assessment of recent trends in the energy and GGE intensity of U production, as well as combining this with reported mineral resources to allow more comprehensive modelling of future energy and GGEs intensity. In this study, detailed data sets are compiled on reported U resources by deposit type, as well as mine production, energy and GGE intensity. Some important aspects included are the relationship between ore grade, deposit type and recovery, which are crucial in future projections of U mining. Overall, the paper demonstrates that there are extensive U resources known to meet potential short to medium term demand, although the future of U mining remains uncertain due to the doubt about the future of nuclear power as well as a range of complex social, environmental, economic and some site-specific technical issues.

  2. Proposal of global flood vulnerability scenarios for evaluating future potential flood losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Y.; Tanoue, M.; Watanabe, S.; Hirabayashi, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Flooding is one of the most hazardous and damaging natural disasters causing serious economic loss and casualties across the world (Jongman et al., 2015). Previous studies showed that the global temperature increase affects regional weather pattern, and several general circulation model (GCM) simulations suggest the increase of flood events in both frequency and magnitude in many parts of the world (Hirabayashi et al., 2013). Effective adaptation to potential flood risks under the warming climate requires an in-depth understanding of both the physical and socioeconomic contributors of the flood risk. To assess the realistic future potential flood risk, future sophisticated vulnerability scenarios associated with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are necessary. In this study we propose a new future vulnerability scenarios in mortality. Our vulnerability scenarios are constructed based on the modeled flood exposure (population potentially suffered by flooding) and a past from 1980 to 2005. All the flood fatality data were classified according to four income levels (high, mid-high, mid-low and low). Our proposed scenarios have three pathways regarding to SSPs; High efficiency (HE) scenario (SSP1, SSP4 (rich country) and SSP5), Medium efficiency (ME) scenario (SSP2), and Low efficiency (LE) scenario (SSP3 and SSP4 (poor country)). The maximum mortality protection level on each category was detected by applying exponential curve fitting with offset term. Slopes in the HE scenario are assumed to be equal to slopes estimated by regression analysis in each category. The slope in the HE scenario is defined by the mean value of all countries' slope value that is approximately -0.33 mortality decreases per year. The EM-DAT mortality data shows a decreasing trend in time in almost all of the countries. Although mortalities in some countries show an increasing trend, this is because these countries were affected by once-in-hundred-years floods after 1990's. The slope in

  3. Energy potential of region and its quantitative assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatyana Aleksandrovna Kovalenko

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the article is the development of the concept of the energy potential of the region (EPR, the analysis of the existing structure of relationships for the EPR elements in Ukraine and improvement of a quantitative assessment of energy potential of the region (country. The methods of an assessment of the existing condition of energy potential of the territory are the subject matter of the research. As a result of the analysis of concept’s definitions of energy potential of the region, it has further development and included the consumer potential of energy resources and capacity of management. The structure of relationships between elements of energy potential is developed for the Ukraine region. The new economic indicator — the realized energy potential is offered for an EPR assessment. By means of this indicator, the assessment of energy potential for the different countries of the world and a number of Ukraine areas of is performed.

  4. Comparing Existing Pipeline Networks with the Potential Scale of Future U.S. CO2 Pipeline Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dooley, James J.; Dahowski, Robert T.; Davidson, Casie L.

    2008-02-29

    There is growing interest regarding the potential size of a future U.S. dedicated CO2 pipeline infrastructure if carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies are commercially deployed on a large scale. In trying to understand the potential scale of a future national CO2 pipeline network, comparisons are often made to the existing pipeline networks used to deliver natural gas and liquid hydrocarbons to markets within the U.S. This paper assesses the potential scale of the CO2 pipeline system needed under two hypothetical climate policies and compares this to the extant U.S. pipeline infrastructures used to deliver CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and to move natural gas and liquid hydrocarbons from areas of production and importation to markets. The data presented here suggest that the need to increase the size of the existing dedicated CO2 pipeline system should not be seen as a significant obstacle for the commercial deployment of CCS technologies.

  5. Assessing the potential toxicity of new pharmaceuticals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, D E; Wolfgang, G H

    2001-09-01

    Optimizing chemical structures to create potentially safe drugs during discovery and early development relies on a combination of predictive algorithms, screening, formal toxicology studies, and early clinical trials. Early in the process three critical questions emerge that must be answered by a detailed "profiling" approach. These questions are: 1) is there a correlation between the chemical structure and potential toxicity that can be used to optimize structures of lead compounds, 2) can specific markers of potential toxicity can be identified carly and used as mechanistic decision-making screens, and 3) will exposures (plasma levels) in animal studies correlate with exposures encountered in the clinic thereby providing "coverage" for safety? Depending on the therapeutic class of compounds being considered and the level of knowledge available, feedback loops of information can be established to guide the development process.

  6. Assessing and treating cognitive impairment in schizophrenia: current and future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chun-Yuan; Tsai, Guochuan E; Lane, Hsien-Yuan

    2014-01-01

    Schizophrenia is a serious neuropsychiatric disease characterized by positive symptoms, negative symptoms and cognitive impairment. Evidence have shown that cognitive impairment sustains in every clinical stage, may relate with the liability, may predict functional outcome in schizophrenia and could be the core symptom of schizophrenia. The treatment of cognitive impairment in schizophrenia could alleviate the burden of the illness and has become the subject of intensive research. In this review, we synthesize current advances of assessing strategies, pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatments of cognitive impairment in schizophrenia. According to the registered records of ClinicalTrials.gov, the most widely studied strategies have aimed at modifying neurochemical mechanisms of dopamine metabolism, glutamate metabolism, γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA) metabolism, serotonin metabolism, acetylcholine metabolism, and oxytocin. Despite preclinical data for putative pro-cognitive drugs, their clinical benefits for schizophrenia patients have been limited. The small sample sizes and the short treatment duration could be related with the suboptimal results. Evidence supported the short-term benefits of cognitive remediation therapy on cognitive domains with small to moderate effects; however, the small sample sizes and the characteristics of subjects limited the generalization of the positive results and the long-term functional outcome is not clear. Combination therapy is promising, by integrating pro-cognitive agents and cognitive rehabilitation programs or combining two kinds of pro-cognitive agents via different mechanisms. Future studies should investigate the pro-cognitive drugs' long-term efficacy, rebound deterioration in psychosis/cognition following discontinuation, and related biomarkers of functional outcome.

  7. Are Managed Futures Indices Telling Truth? Biases in CTA Databases and Proposals of Potential Enhancements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Zaremba

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Managed futures are an alternative asset class which has recently became considerably popular among investment industry. However, due to its characteristics, access to managed futures historical performance statistics is relatively confined. All available information originates from commercial and academic databases, reporting to which is entirely voluntary. This situation results in series of biases which distort the managed futures performance in the eyes of investors. The paper consists of two parts. First, the author reviews and describes various biases that influence the reliability of the managed futures indices and databases. The second section encompasses author’s proposals of potential enhancements, which aim to reduce the impact of the biases in order to derive a benchmark that could better reflect characteristics of managed futures investment from the point of view of a potential investor.

  8. Global and Regional Future Potential for Energy from Municipal Solid Waste

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, J. S.; Smith, S. J.

    2008-12-01

    Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) is a low-cost form of alternative energy with a large potential for future expansion. MSW is already collected and aggregated at population centers where energy demands are high. In addition, it is non-seasonal, and using MSW as an energy source reduces land demand for waste disposal sites in urban areas where land pressures are high. Across the world, the MSW generation rate and its composition vary greatly, but detailed historical data on MSW are not well archived for most of the world. In this study, material flows into the MSW stream are estimated by analyzing production and trade statistics of food, wood, and paper. A life cycle analysis for consumption is used to estimate the amount and composition of MSW for all countries of the world. The primary energy available is estimated based on the energy content of the various waste components. The relationship between GDP, population, per capita GDP, and MSW generation is determined via a regression model. The ObjECTS MiniCAM (integrated assessment model) is used to project the demand for waste-to-energy for the next century for different regions of the world under various international climate policy scenarios. MSW is potentially a low net carbon energy source that can displace fossil energy, and as such, demand for waste-to-energy increases under a climate policy that places a price on carbon emissions.

  9. Bio-SNG potential assessment: Denmark 2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahrenfeldt, J.; Thomsen, T. (Risoe DTU, Roskilde (Denmark)); Joergensen, Betina (Dansk Gasteknisk Center A/S, Hoersholm (Denmark))

    2010-11-15

    In this project the potential for SNG based on biomass gasification has been sought elucidated. As part of the project a model for simulation of biomass in Denmark has been developed. The conclusion is that SNG can substitute a significant amount of natural gas, but the energy efficiency should be improved. (Author)

  10. Complex Assessment of Sufficiency of the Bank Resource Potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azizova Kateryna M.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the article is development of methodical recommendations regarding assessment of sufficiency of the bank resource potential by means of identification and analysis of all its components and use of the method of rating assessment. Analysing, systemising and generalising scientific works of foreign and Ukrainian scientists, the article considers a complex approach to the bank resource potential management. In the result of the study the article identifies specific features of a complex approach in the bank resource potential management. The method of geometric average and normative values of selected ratios for calculation was used for the generalising complex assessment of sufficiency of the bank resource potential. The rating assessment of the Public JSC Mercury Bank resource potential was calculated by such indicators as: debt, loan and own resources. The stated algorithm of the rating assessment of the resource potential could be applied for comparison of banks in dynamics.

  11. Hydropower in Turkey: potential and market assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-10-15

    The Turkish hydropower market provides huge opportunities for investors and suppliers. Successful market entry is not easy, however, as the market is still not fully liberalized, the need for local intelligence is large and the competition is increasing. There are also potential political, reputational and environmental risks, typical for an emerging economy. The World Bank global 'Ease of doing business' ranking (2010), ranks Turkey as number 73 of 183 countries. (Author)

  12. US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John; Jacobs, Kathy; Lempert, Rob; Mearns, L. O.; Melillo, Jerry; Mote, Phil; O' Brien, Sheila; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, Alex; Sheppard, Stephen; Vallario, Robert W.; Wiek, Arnim; Wilbanks, Thomas

    2011-10-01

    This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for release in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes

  13. Assessing the potential toxicity of resuspended sediment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bonnet, C.; Babut, M.; Ferard, J.F.; Martel, L.; Garric, J.

    2000-05-01

    Two moderately contaminated freshwater sediments (Sorel Harbour, St. Lawrence River, Canada) were subjected to a suspension event. The objective was to assess the environmental impact of the disposal of dredged material in water, in particular, the short-term effects of dumping on the water column and the long-term effects of dredged sediment deposits. In a series of microcosms, the sediments were left to stand for 25 d under flow-through conditions. In a second series of microcosms, sediments were vigorously suspended for 15 min before being left to settle and were submitted to the same treatment as reference sediments during the following 25 d. Physicochemical and biological parameters (Daphnia magna and Hydra attenuata survival) were measured in overlying water throughout the experiment. Sediment toxicity was assessed with Chironomus tentans and Hyalella azteca exposed to sediments collected at both the beginning and end of the 25-d period. Pore-water toxicity was evaluated with D. magna. During the suspension process, in the Sorel Harbour mixed sediment overlying water, the authors observed effects on H. attenuata survival and ammonia and metals (chromium, copper, and zinc) releases. Meanwhile, in reference (nonmixed) and mixed sediments as well as in associated pore waters, there were no significant chemical modifications no biological effects after the 25-d experiments. The developed approach, which attempts to simulate a dumping process, aims at allowing the assessment of the short- and long-term hazards resulting from a resuspension process in overlying water and in resettled sediments using both chemical and biological measurements.

  14. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    activities. The method results in the development of LULC maps providing insights into a range of alternative futures using a scope of socio-economic and environmental conditions. A landslides assessment model, the ALICE model is then used as a final tool to analyze the potential impacts of simulated LUCC on landslide risks and the consequences in terms of vulnerability, e.g. changes in disaster risk allocation or characterization, degree of perturbation. This assessment intends to provide insights onto the potential future development of the valley to help identify areas at stake and to guide decision makers to help the risk management. Preliminary results show strong differences of futures land use and land cover maps that have significant influence on landslides hazards.

  15. Using scenarios to assess possible future impacts of invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauber, T. Bruce; Stedman, Richard C.; Connelly, Nancy A; Rudstam, Lars G.; Ready, Richard C; Poe, Gregory L; Bunnell, David; Hook, Tomas O.; Koops, Marten A.; Ludsin, Stuart A.; Rutherford, Edward S; Wittmann, Marion E.

    2016-01-01

    The expected impacts of invasive species are key considerations in selecting policy responses to potential invasions. But predicting the impacts of invasive species is daunting, particularly in large systems threatened by multiple invasive species, such as North America’s Laurentian Great Lakes. We developed and evaluated a scenario-building process that relied on an expert panel to assess possible future impacts of aquatic invasive species on recreational fishing in the Great Lakes. To maximize its usefulness to policy makers, this process was designed to be implemented relatively rapidly and consider a range of species. The expert panel developed plausible, internally-consistent invasion scenarios for 5 aquatic invasive species, along with subjective probabilities of those scenarios. We describe these scenarios and evaluate this approach for assessing future invasive species impacts. The panel held diverse opinions about the likelihood of the scenarios, and only one scenario with impacts on sportfish species was considered likely by most of the experts. These outcomes are consistent with the literature on scenario building, which advocates for developing a range of plausible scenarios in decision making because the uncertainty of future conditions makes the likelihood of any particular scenario low. We believe that this scenario-building approach could contribute to policy decisions about whether and how to address the possible impacts of invasive species. In this case, scenarios could allow policy makers to narrow the range of possible impacts on Great Lakes fisheries they consider and help set a research agenda for further refining invasive species predictions.

  16. A Statewide Writing Assessment Model: Student Proficiency and Future Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dappen, Leon; Isernhagen, Jody; Anderson, Sue

    2008-01-01

    This paper is an examination of statewide district writing achievement gain data from the Nebraska Statewide Writing Assessment system and implications for statewide assessment writing models. The writing assessment program is used to gain compliance with the United States No Child Left Behind Law (NCLB), a federal effort to influence school…

  17. ASSESSMENT OF HOUSEHOLD CARBON FOOTPRINT REDUCTION POTENTIALS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, Klaas Jan; Homan, Greg; Brown, Rich; Worrell, Ernst; Masanet, Eric

    2009-04-15

    The term ?household carbon footprint? refers to the total annual carbon emissions associated with household consumption of energy, goods, and services. In this project, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory developed a carbon footprint modeling framework that characterizes the key underlying technologies and processes that contribute to household carbon footprints in California and the United States. The approach breaks down the carbon footprint by 35 different household fuel end uses and 32 different supply chain fuel end uses. This level of end use detail allows energy and policy analysts to better understand the underlying technologies and processes contributing to the carbon footprint of California households. The modeling framework was applied to estimate the annual home energy and supply chain carbon footprints of a prototypical California household. A preliminary assessment of parameter uncertainty associated with key model input data was also conducted. To illustrate the policy-relevance of this modeling framework, a case study was conducted that analyzed the achievable carbon footprint reductions associated with the adoption of energy efficient household and supply chain technologies.

  18. Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (Orion)

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana L.; Bigler, Mark A.

    2017-01-01

    NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. To determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators, and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the

  19. Turbulence assessment at potential turbine sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniels, A. [Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI (United States)

    1996-12-31

    As opposed to a fixed anemometer, the Tala kite is free to move in the air. The motion of the kite is not random, it moves with or against the speed gradient towards the center of passing turbulence events of higher or lower speeds thus allowing the kite to measure event maximum or minimum speed rather than the speed at some unknown distance from the event center like a fixed anemometer. This behavior is confirmed both by a theoretical aerodynamics analysis of the kite motion and by data from a field study where kite and hot film anemometer (HFA) events, defined by the rain flow count method, were compared with flap events on a rotating turbine blade. The HFAs simulated too few events lasting too long while the kites reproduced both the number of events and event periods remarkably close. It is concluded that the kite is the optimal tool for measuring turbulence at potential turbine sites. Kite turbulence can form the bases for economic return estimates and an example is given where less windy sites could be more economical than other more turbulent higher speed sites. 13 refs., 8 figs.

  20. Beyond offshoring: assess your company's global potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Diana

    2004-12-01

    In the past few years, companies have become aware that they can slash costs by offshoring: moving jobs to lower-wage locations. But this practice is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of how globalization can transform industries, according to research by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI). The institute's yearlong study suggests that by streamlining their production processes and supply chains globally, rather than just nationally or regionally, companies can lower their costs-as we've seen in the consumer-electronics and PC industries. Companies can save as much as 70% of their total costs through globalization--50% from offshoring, 5% from training and business-task redesign, and 15% from process improvements. But they don't have to stop there. The cost reductions make it possible to lower prices and expand into new markets, attracting whole new classes of customers. To date, however, few businesses have recognized the full scope of performance improvements that globalization makes possible, much less developed sound strategies for capturing those opportunities. In this article, Diana Farrell, director of MGI, offers a step-by-step approach to doing both things. Among her suggestions: Assess where your industry falls along the globalization spectrum, because not all sectors of the economy face the same challenges and opportunities at the same time. Also, pay attention to production, regulatory, and organizational barriers to globalization. If any of these can be changed, size up the cost-saving (and revenue-generating) opportunities that will emerge for your company as a result of those changes. Farrell also defines the five stages of globalization-market entry, product specialization, value chain disaggregation, value chain reengineering, and the creation of new markets-and notes the different levers for cutting costs and creating value that companies can use in each phase.

  1. Using Self- and Peer-Assessment to Enhance Students' Future-Learning in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Glyn; Martin, Dona; Pleasants, Kathleen

    2011-01-01

    In higher education settings, assessment tasks get the attention of students, but once students submit their work they typically become disengaged with the assessment process. Hence, opportunities for learning are lost as they become passive recipients of assessment outcomes. Future-learning oriented assessment engages students in the assessment…

  2. Assessment of bioenergy potential on marginal land in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhuang, Dafang; Jiang, Dong; Liu, Lei; Huang, Yaohuan [Data Center for Resources and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101 (China)

    2011-02-15

    Bioenergy developed from energy plants will play a more and more important role in future energy supply. Much attention has been paid to energy plants in recent years. As China has fairly limited cultivated land resources, the bioenergy development may mainly rely on the exploitation of marginal land. This study focused on the assessment of marginal land resources and bio-fuel potential in China using newly acquired data and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. A multi-factor analysis method was adopted to identify marginal lands for bioenergy development in China, with data of several main types of energy plants on the eco-environmental requirements and natural habits employed. A combined planting zonation strategy was proposed, which was targeted for five species of energy plants including Helianthus tuberous L., Pistacia chinensis, Jatropha curcas L., Cassava and Vernicia fordii. The results indicated that total area of marginal land exploitable for development of energy plants on a large scale was about 43.75 million ha. If 10% of this marginal land was fully utilized for growing the energy plants, the production of bio-fuel would be 13.39 million tons. (author)

  3. Future Diet Scenarios and Their Effect on Regional and Global Biofuel Potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, J.; hvid, A.

    2012-04-01

    Food production has been one of the most significant ways in which humans have changed the surface of the Earth. It is projected that further intensification of agriculture will be necessary to meet a growing population and the increased demand for calories from animal products. This would require substantially more land and resources devoted to animal production. However, globally, the proportion of per capita caloric intake from animal to total caloric intake has remained relatively constant for the last 50 years at slightly above 15%. Nevertheless, there are large discrepancies across regions and through time. For example, northern European countries derive over 30% of calories from animal products, while India is under 10%; between 1961 and 2007, China's per capita consumption of animal calories has increased by over a factor of ten, while in the US, animal calorie consumption has remained constant. In general, per capita consumption of animal products is lower in developing countries than in developed countries, and it is commonly assumed that future animal product consumption will increase as developing countries become wealthier. On the other hand, wealthier countries are remaining constant or even decreasing their proportional consumption of animal calories, and this could be a different way that future diets may evolve. We create different future scenarios for calorie demand from vegetal products, beef, sheep and goat, pork, poultry, and dairy based on historical national trends and estimated income elasticities for these various food products. The extreme scenarios are one in which the world evolves to a highly vegetal calorie diet and, on the other extreme, one in which the world evolves to diets with high meat consumption. Intermediate scenarios include projections of current trends and one in which the world moves to a healthy balanced diet given current recommendations. Using DTU-GCAM, and global integrated assessment model with an included land use

  4. Assessment of the energy efficiency enhancement of future mobile networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Litjens, R.; Toh, Y.; Zhang, H.; Blume, O.

    2014-01-01

    We assess the energy efficiency of mobile networks in 2020, and compare it with a 2010 baseline. A comprehensive assessment approach is taken, considering all relevant scenario aspects such as data traffic growth, hardware evolutions, mobile network deployments and operations including network shari

  5. Assessment and E-Learning: Current Issues and Future Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowie, Neil; Sakui, Keiko

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes different ways in which digital technology can be used for language learning. It then identifies some key trends connecting assessment and technology in language learning and higher education: the use of automated systems to enhance traditional assessment practices; the use of Web 2.0 tools to facilitate new assessment…

  6. Assessing the Seismic Potential Hazard of the Makran Subduction Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frohling, E.; Szeliga, W. M.; Melbourne, T. I.; Abolghasem, A.; Lodi, S. H.

    2013-12-01

    Long quiescent subduction zones like the Makran, Sunda, and Cascadia, which have long recurrence intervals for large (> Mw 8) earthquakes, often have poorly known seismic histories and are particularly vulnerable and often ill-prepared. The Makran subduction zone has not been studied extensively, but the 1945 Mw 8.1 earthquake and subsequent tsunami, as well as more recent mid magnitude, intermediate depth (50-100 km) seismicity, demonstrates the active seismic nature of the region. Recent increases in regional GPS and seismic monitoring now permit the modeling of strain accumulations and seismic potential of the Makran subduction zone. Subduction zone seismicity indicates that the eastern half of the Makran is presently more active than the western half. It has been hypothesized that the relative quiescence of the western half is due to aseismic behavior. However, based on GPS evidence, the entire subduction zone generally appears to be coupled and has been accumulating stress that could be released in another > 8.0 Mw earthquake. To assess the degree of coupling, we utilize existing GPS data to create a fault coupling model for the Makran using a preliminary 2-D fault geometry derived from ISC hypocenters. Our 2-D modeling is done using the backslip approach and defines the parameters in our coupling model; we forego the generation of a 3-D model due to the low spatial density of available GPS data. We compare the use of both NUVEL-1A plate motions and modern Arabian plate motions derived from GPS station velocities in Oman to drive subduction for our fault coupling model. To avoid non-physical inversion results, we impose second order smoothing to eliminate steep strain gradients. The fit of the modeled inter-seismic deformation vectors are assessed against the observed strain from the GPS data. Initial observations indicate that the entire subduction zone is currently locked and accumulating strain, with no identifiable gaps in the interseismic locking

  7. Futurism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foy, Jane Loring

    The objectives of this research report are to gain insight into the main problems of the future and to ascertain the attitudes that the general population has toward the treatment of these problems. In the first section of this report the future is explored socially, psychologically, and environmentally. The second section describes the techniques…

  8. Boron neutron capture therapy of brain tumors: past history, current status, and future potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barth, R F; Soloway, A H; Brugger, R M

    1996-01-01

    clinical trials on BNCT for brain tumors will be reviewed and the future potential of BNCT will be assessed.

  9. The future of Yellowcake: A global assessment of uranium resources and mining

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mudd, Gavin M., E-mail: Gavin.Mudd@monash.edu

    2014-02-01

    Uranium (U) mining remains controversial in many parts of the world, especially in a post-Fukushima context, and often in areas with significant U resources. Although nuclear proponents point to the relatively low carbon intensity of nuclear power compared to fossil fuels, opponents argue that this will be eroded in the future as ore grades decline and energy and greenhouse gas emissions (GGEs) intensity increases as a result. Invariably both sides fail to make use of the increasingly available data reported by some U mines through sustainability reporting — allowing a comprehensive assessment of recent trends in the energy and GGE intensity of U production, as well as combining this with reported mineral resources to allow more comprehensive modelling of future energy and GGEs intensity. In this study, detailed data sets are compiled on reported U resources by deposit type, as well as mine production, energy and GGE intensity. Some important aspects included are the relationship between ore grade, deposit type and recovery, which are crucial in future projections of U mining. Overall, the paper demonstrates that there are extensive U resources known to meet potential short to medium term demand, although the future of U mining remains uncertain due to the doubt about the future of nuclear power as well as a range of complex social, environmental, economic and some site-specific technical issues. - Highlights: • An extensive data set on global uranium resources and classified by deposit type. • Comprehensive analysis of key trends, such as ore grades and recovery rates. • Energy and carbon intensity of production shows an increase as ore grades decline. • Mine rehabilitation often shows poor success or accounts of long-term effectiveness. • Real constraints on nuclear power remain safety and costs compared to alternatives.

  10. Biogas. Present situation and future potential; Biogas. Nulaege och framtida potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nordberg, Ulf [Swedish Inst. of Agricultural and Environmental Engineering, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2006-12-15

    The report contains a general overview of present technology concerning production of biogas through anaerobic breakdown of easily recycled organic material as well as implementation areas for biogas. The work has been done in three parts: description of present situation, technical limitations and development efforts, synthesis. In Sweden there are more than 220 biogas plants for handling crops, sludge and organic residue material. Production of biogas occurs primarily at sewage treatment plants and landfills. Total capacity in 2004 was approx. 300,000 m{sup 3} anaerobic chamber volume, of which approx. 73% was utilised. Planned increase in capacity was approx. 125,000 m{sup 3} or approx. 42%.The substrate brought to the plants was comprised of approx. 45% manure, 30% offal, 10% biowaste from households and 15% other substrates. Calculations based on the energy content of input substrate indicate that approx. 10% of the gas was from manure, 65% from offal, 25% from household waste and 5% from other substrates. In 2005 a total of 1,5 TWh of biogas was produced in Sweden. Biogas is used primarily for heating purposes followed by use as vehicle fuel and in electricity production. More than 55 GWh is torched away. Sewage treatment plants are not included. Interest in using biogas as fuel has increased. The theoretical biogas potential in Sweden has been calculated to be 14-17 TWh per year, of which approx. 80% is found in agriculturally related biomass. Approximately 3 TWh originates from various types of household and industrial waste. Generally it can be said that there is a large potential for improvement and increased efficiency within the whole chain of substrate collection, preparatory treatment of substrates, operational control of biogas plants, upgrade/treatment and use of gas as well as spreading and use of biofertilizer. The greatest increase in substrate will come from the amount of crops from the agricultural sector. The contacts between farmers and plant

  11. Assessment of Wind Energy Potential in Golestan Province of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Hashemi-Tilehnoee

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Renewable energy sources are estimated to have a thriving future in many countries as well as Iran. The aim of this work is the evaluation of wind energy potentiality for the five counties of Golestan province in the northern region of Iran. A long term data source, consisting of  30 years in Gorgan, 22 years in Gonbade-e Qabus, 21 years in Maraveh Tappeh, 9 years in Aliabad, and 7 years in Bandar-e Turkaman of eight-hourly mean wind data, was adopted and analyzed. Mean wind power based on quantified data, Weibull distribution function, the relative percentage error (RPE and wind direction between obtaining values of wind power has been considered. According to these data, it was found that the numerical values of the shape parameter and scale parameter for Golestan varied a tight range. Annual values of ‘‘k’’ ranged from 2.7 to 4.7 where it is constant in different elevation because of better performance of this method in estimating wind energy potential, while annual values of ‘‘c’’ were in the range of 2.6 m/s in 10 m and 7.6 m/s in 40 m. Wind power densities have been estimated and relatively low for large wind turbines. The consequences indicate that in some months Maraveh Tappeh and Bandar-e Turkaman has best wind energy potential, as class 2, in order to establish some small wind turbine models for the sustainable development of Golestan province. Article History: Received Sept 13, 2015; Received in revised form Dec 27, 2015; Accepted January 17, 2016; Available online How to Cite This Article: Babayani, D., Khaleghi, M. and Hashemi-Tilehnoee, M. (2016 Assessment of Wind Energy Potential in Golestan Province of Iran. Int. Journal of Renewable Energy Development, 5(1, 25-31. http://dx.doi.org/10.14710/ijred.5.1.25-31 

  12. Assessment of future drought in Southwest China based on CMIP5 multimodel projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lin; Chen, Wen; Zhou, Wen

    2014-09-01

    In the last decade, a series of severe and extensive droughts have swept across Southwest China, resulting in tremendous economic losses, deaths, and disruption to society. Consequently, this study is motivated by the paramount importance of assessing future changes in drought in Southwest China. Precipitation is likely to decrease over most parts of Southwest China around the beginning of the century, followed by widespread precipitation increases; the increase in potential evapotranspiration (PET), due to the joint effects of increased temperature and surface net radiation and decreased relative humidity, will overwhelm the whole region throughout the entire 21st century. In comparative terms, the enhancement of PET will outweigh that of precipitation, particularly under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, resulting in intensified drought. Generally, the drying tendency will be in the southeast portion, whereas the mountainous region in the northwest will become increasingly wetter owing to abundant precipitation increases. Droughts classified as moderate/severe according to historical standards will become the norm in the 2080s under RCP4.5/RCP8.5. Future drought changes will manifest different characteristics depending on the time scale: the magnitude of change at a time scale of 48 months is nearly twice as great as that at 3 months. Furthermore, we will see that not only will incidences of severe and extreme drought increase dramatically in the future, but extremely wet events will also become more probable.

  13. Customer Satisfaction and Customer Loyalty as Predictors of Future Business Potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskildsen, Jacob Kjær; Kristensen, Kai

    2007-01-01

    This paper analyzes the relationship between customer satisfaction, customer loyalty and the future business potential of existing customers. The data for the analysis comes from the Danish Customer Satisfaction Index 2006. Here a total of app. 2000 private customers evaluated their...

  14. The Development of B2C E-Commerce in Greece: Current Situation and Future Potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kardaras, Dimitris; Papathanassiou, Eleutherios

    2000-01-01

    Reports on the results of a survey of 120 companies in Greece that evaluated the potential of business to customer (B2C) Internet applications and investigated how the Internet and e-commerce can offer new opportunities for businesses to improve their customers' satisfaction. Discusses electronic commerce problems and future technology. (Contains…

  15. A multi-level strategy for anticipating future glacier lake formation and associated hazard potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, Holger; Haeberli, Wilfried; Huggel, Christian; Linsbauer, Andreas

    2010-05-01

    Due to the expected atmospheric warming, mountain glaciers will retreat, potentially collapse or even vanish completely during the 21st century. When overdeepened parts of the glacier bed are exposed in the course of glacier retreat, glacier lakes can form. Such lakes have a potential for hydropower production, which is an important source of renewable energy. Furthermore they are important elements in the perception of high-mountain landscapes and they can compensate the loss of landscape attractiveness from glacier shrinkage to a certain degree. However, glacier lakes are also a potential source of serious flood and debris flow hazards, especially in densely populated mountain ranges. Thus, methods for early detection of sites with potential lake formation are important for early planning and development of protection concepts. In this contribution we present a multi-scale approach to detect sites with potential future lake formation on four different levels of detail. The methods are developed, tested and - as far as possible - verified in the Swiss Alps; but they can be applied to mountain regions all over the world. On a first level, potential overdeepenings are estimated by selecting flat parts (slope flow (no crevasses) followed by extending flow (heavily crevassed). On the third level, more sophisticated approaches to model the glacier bed topography are applied to get more quantitative information on potential future lakes. Based on the results of this level, scenarios of future lake outbursts can be modeled with simple flow routing models. Finally, for potentially critical or dangerous situations, on-site geophysical measurements such as ground penetrating radar applied on different sections of a glacier can be performed on the fourth level to investigate the overdeepenings in more detail. These methods are verified based on historical data from the Trift glacier in the Bernese Alps, where a lake formed in front of the glacier since the 1990s up to the

  16. Dynamic Assessment, Potential Giftedness and Mathematics Achievement in Elementary School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popa, Nicoleta Laura; Pauc, Ramona Loredana

    2015-01-01

    Dynamic assessment is currently discussed in educational literature as one of the most promising practices in stimulating learning among various groups of students, including gifted and potentially gifted students. The present study investigates effects of dynamic assessment on mathematics achievement among elementary school students, with…

  17. Self-Assessment in Librarianship: Current Practices and Future Possibilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ania Dymarz

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The authors of this qualitative study set out to investigate self-assessment practices within the library profession. The researchers conducted semi-structured interviews with a purposeful sample of nine librarians coming from a range of library settings and possessing a diversity of library experience. Interviews were then transcribed and coded in NVIVO to identify emergent themes. This paper details some of the results of that study, highlighting motivations, limitations, and strategies with regard to self-assessment. The findings present a summary of a range of approaches to the practice of assessment as reported by the interviewees. One area of possible growth for our profession, as highlighted by the findings, is in the development of peer networks as a support for the individual practice of self-assessment. While the results of this small case study cannot be generalized, the authors hope these preliminary findings can open up the conversation around self-assessment both for individual librarians and for those librarians and managers working to shape their workplace culture.

  18. Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: Comparative aspects and future perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dorne, J.L.C.M., E-mail: jean-lou.dorne@efsa.europa.eu [Emerging Risk Unit, Via Carlo Magno 1A, 43126 Parma (Italy); Fink-Gremmels, J. [Utrecht University, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Yalelaan 104, 3584 CM Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2013-08-01

    Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. - Highlights: ► Principles of human and animal health risk assessment. ► Data gaps for each step of animal health risk assessment. ► Implications of animal risk assessment on human risk assessment. ► Future perspectives on chemical risk assessment.

  19. Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Retel, V.P.; Joore, M.A.; Rutgers, E.J.; Harten, van W.H.

    2012-01-01

    Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and d

  20. Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauser, Wolfram; Klepper, Gernot; Zabel, Florian; Delzeit, Ruth; Hank, Tobias; Putzenlechner, Birgitta; Calzadilla, Alvaro

    2015-11-12

    Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today's cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers' profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification.

  1. Harmonization of future needs for dermal exposure assessment and modeling : a workshop report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Maidment, S.; Mcclaflin, J.L.; Fehrenbacher, M.C.

    2001-01-01

    Dermal exposure assessment and modeling is still in early phases of development. This article presents the results of a workshop organized to harmonize the future needs in this field. Methods for dermal exposure assessment either assess the mass of contaminant that is transferred to the skin, or the

  2. Dynamic assessment: an approach to assessing children's language-learning potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutiérrez-Clellen, V F

    2000-01-01

    Dynamic assessment represents an alternative approach to traditional language assessments. In dynamic assessment, the examiner attempts to assess the child's potential for language change or modifiability. This article discusses the development of this approach from its early psychological applications to current models of dynamic assessment as they apply to the assessment of child language. Dynamic assessment is particularly useful in addressing cultural differences that may influence children's assessment performance. The approach involves a test-teach-retest paradigm that includes mediated learning experiences, measures of test score gains, ratings of modifiability and language-learning strategies, as well as analyses of qualitative changes in children's responses.

  3. Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-12-15

    This report documents the future human actions, FHA, considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Site (see further the Main report /SKB 2011/). The purpose of this report is to provide an account of general considerations concerning FHA, the methodology applied in SR-Site to assess FHA, the aspects of FHA needed to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository and to select and analyse representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis. The main focus of this report is a time period when institutional control has ceased to be effective, thereby permitting inadvertent intrusion. However, a brief discussion of the earlier period when the repository has been closed, sealed and continuously kept under institutional control is also provided. General The potential exposure to large quantities of radiotoxic material is an inescapable consequence of the deposition of spent nuclear fuel in a final repository, and consequently intrusion into the repository needs to be considered in repository design and safety assessment. In accordance with ICRP recommendations /ICRP 2000/, intrusion in the post-closure phase of institutional control and beyond is primarily prevented through the design of the repository. In addition to that there will presumably continue to be safeguards measures, preservation of information (record keeping) and possibly some sort of markers placed at the site. During the institutional control period, activities at the site have to be restricted or directed if they have the potential to interfere with or hinder surveillance of the site, but this does not necessarily rule out all forms of access to the area. Also the fact that the repository contains fissile materials is an important aspect. Control of safeguards measures will most likely be upheld by national as well as international agencies. Furthermore, the

  4. An analytic framework to assess future electricity options in Kosovo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kittner, Noah; Dimco, Hilda; Azemi, Visar; Tairyan, Evgenia; Kammen, Daniel M.

    2016-10-01

    We have developed an analytic platform to analyze the electricity options, costs, and impacts for Kosovo, a nation that is a critical part of the debate over centralized versus distributed electricity generation and the role of fossil fuels versus cleaner electricity options to meet growing demands for power. We find that a range of alternatives exists to meet present supply constraints all at a lower cost than constructing a proposed 600 MW coal plant. The options include energy efficiency measures, combinations of solar PV, wind, hydropower, and biomass, and the introduction of natural gas. A 30 EUR ton-1 shadow price on CO2 increases costs of coal generation by at least 330 million EUR. The results indicate that financing a new coal plant is the most expensive pathway to meet future electricity demand.

  5. Identification of Potential Hazard using Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, R. M.; Syahputri, K.; Rizkya, I.; Siregar, I.

    2017-03-01

    This research was conducted in the paper production’s company. These Paper products will be used as a cigarette paper. Along in the production’s process, Company provides the machines and equipment that operated by workers. During the operations, all workers may potentially injured. It known as a potential hazard. Hazard identification and risk assessment is one part of a safety and health program in the stage of risk management. This is very important as part of efforts to prevent occupational injuries and diseases resulting from work. This research is experiencing a problem that is not the identification of potential hazards and risks that would be faced by workers during the running production process. The purpose of this study was to identify the potential hazards by using hazard identification and risk assessment methods. Risk assessment is done using severity criteria and the probability of an accident. According to the research there are 23 potential hazard that occurs with varying severity and probability. Then made the determination Risk Assessment Code (RAC) for each potential hazard, and gained 3 extreme risks, 10 high risks, 6 medium risks and 3 low risks. We have successfully identified potential hazard using RAC.

  6. Current Animal Models of Postoperative Spine Infection and Potential Future Advances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra eStavrakis

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Implant related infection following spine surgery is a devastating complication for patients and can potentially lead to significant neurological compromise, disability, morbidity, and even mortality. This paper provides an overview of the existing animal models of postoperative spine infection and highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each model. In addition there is discussion regarding potential modifications to these animal models to better evaluate preventative and treatment strategies for this challenging complication. Current models are effective in simulating surgical procedures but fail to evaluate infection longitudinally using multiple techniques. Potential future modifications to these models include using advanced imaging technologies to evaluate infection, use of bioluminescent bacterial species, and testing of novel treatment strategies against multiple bacterial strains. There is potential to establish a postoperative spine infection model using smaller animals, such as mice, as these would be a more cost-effective screening tool for potential therapeutic interventions.

  7. Identifying Potential Areas for Future Urban Development Using Gis-Based Multi Criteria Evaluation Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Khalid Sabbar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Malaysia likes other Asian countries has experienced rapid urbanization due to economic development, industrialization, massive migrations as well as natural population growth. This expansion particularly the unplanned has impacted negatively on farming activities and creates huge pressure arable agriculture areas. Thus, identification of potential sites for future urban development should become important issues in ensuring sustainable development. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to use GIS based multi criteria evaluation technique to identify potential areas for urban development at Balik Pulau, Penang. The study quantified spatial and temporal dynamics of land use/cover changes and identified potential areas for future development. The results indicated that large proportions of agriculture areas had been converted to built-up areas.. Urban areas increased from 1793.2 ha in 1992 to 3235.4 ha in 2002 and became 3987.8 ha in 2010. On the other hand agricultural land decreased from 6171.3ha (53.8% in 1992 to 3883 ha (35. % in 2010. The study, then, produced map showing potential sites for future urban development. The findings also indicated built-up areas would continue to encroach into flat available agricultural land which will be diminished if no restriction imposed. Thus, the information obtained from this study is useful for planners and decision makers in controlling agriculture areas and guiding new development properly.

  8. Qualitative assessment of patients’ attitudes and expectations toward BCIs and implications for future technology development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schicktanz, Silke; Amelung, Till; Rieger, Jochem W.

    2015-01-01

    Brain–computer–interfaces (BCIs) are important for the next generation of neuro-prosthesis innovations. Only few pilot projects have tested patients’ abilities to control BCIs as well as their satisfaction with the offered technologies. On the one hand, little is known about patients’ moral attitudes toward the benefit-risk-ratio of BCIs as well as their needs, priorities, and expectations. On the other hand, ethics experts intensively discuss the general risks of BCIs as well as the limits of neuro-enhancement. To our knowledge, we present here the first qualitative interview study with ten chronic patients matching the potential user categories for motor and communication BCIs to assess their practical and moral attitudes toward this technology. The interviews reveal practical and moral attitudes toward motor BCIs that can impact future technology development. We discuss our empirical findings on patients’ perspectives and compare them to neuroscientists’ and ethicists’ perspectives. Our analysis indicates only partial overlap between the potential users’ and the experts’ assessments of BCI-technology. It points out the importance of considering the needs and desires of the targeted patient group. Based on our findings, we suggest a multi-fold approach to the development of clinical BCIs, rooted in the participatory technology-development. We conclude that clinical BCI development needs to be explored in a disease-related and culturally sensitive way. PMID:25964745

  9. Qualitative assessment of patients’ attitudes and expectations towards BCIs and implications for future technology development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silke eSchicktanz

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Brain-Computer-Interfaces (BCIs are important for the next generation of neuro-prosthesis innovations. Only few pilot projects have tested patients’ abilities to control BCIs as well as their satisfaction with the offered technologies. On the one hand, little is known about patients’ moral attitudes towards the benefit-risk-ratio of BCIs as well as their needs, priorities, and expectations. On the other hand, ethics experts intensively discuss the general risks of BCIs as well as the limits of neuro-enhancement. To our knowledge, we present here the first qualitative interview study with ten chronic patients matching the potential user categories for motor and communication BCIs to assess their practical and moral attitudes towards this technology. The interviews reveal practical and moral attitudes towards motor BCIs that can impact future technology development. We discuss our empirical findings on patients’ perspectives and compare them to neuroscientists’ and ethicists’ perspectives. This analysis indicates only partial overlap between the potential users’ and the experts’ assessments of BCI-technology. It points out the importance of considering the needs and desires of the targeted patient group. Based on our findings, we suggest a multi-fold approach to the development of clinical BCIs, rooted in the participatory technology-development. We conclude that clinical BCI development needs to be explored in a disease-related and culturally sensitive way.

  10. Transportation Energy Futures Series. Potential for Energy Efficiency Improvement Beyond the Light-Duty-Vehicle Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vyas, A. D. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Patel, D. M. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Bertram, K. M. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2013-02-01

    Considerable research has focused on energy efficiency and fuel substitution options for light-duty vehicles, while much less attention has been given to medium- and heavy-duty trucks, buses, aircraft, marine vessels, trains, pipeline, and off-road equipment. This report brings together the salient findings from an extensive review of literature on future energy efficiency options for these non-light-duty modes. Projected activity increases to 2050 are combined with forecasts of overall fuel efficiency improvement potential to estimate the future total petroleum and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to current levels. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  11. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Potential for Energy Efficiency Improvement Beyond the Light-Duty-Vehicle Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vyas, A. D.; Patel, D. M.; Bertram, K. M.

    2013-03-01

    Considerable research has focused on energy efficiency and fuel substitution options for light-duty vehicles, while much less attention has been given to medium- and heavy-duty trucks, buses, aircraft, marine vessels, trains, pipeline, and off-road equipment. This report brings together the salient findings from an extensive review of literature on future energy efficiency options for these non-light-duty modes. Projected activity increases to 2050 are combined with forecasts of overall fuel efficiency improvement potential to estimate the future total petroleum and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to current levels. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  12. Assessment of iodine nutrition in populations: past, present, and future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmermann, Michael B; Andersson, Maria

    2012-10-01

    Iodine status has been historically assessed by palpation of the thyroid and reported as goiter rates. Goiter is a functional biomarker that can be applied to both individuals and populations, but it is subjective. Iodine status is now assessed using an objective biomarker of exposure, i.e., urinary iodine concentrations (UICs) in spot samples and comparison of the median UIC to UIC cut-offs to categorize population status. This has improved standardization, but inappropriate use of the crude proportion of UICs below the cut-off level of 100 µg/L to estimate the number of iodine-deficient children has led to an overestimation of the prevalence of iodine deficiency. In this review, a new approach is proposed in which UIC data are extrapolated to iodine intakes, adjusted for intraindividual variation, and then interpreted using the estimated average requirement cut-point model. This may allow national programs to define the prevalence of iodine deficiency in the population and to quantify the necessary increase in iodine intakes to ensure sufficiency. In addition, thyroglobulin can be measured on dried blood spots to provide an additional sensitive functional biomarker of iodine status.

  13. Potential impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on future agricultural land use in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farzan Ahmed, Kazi; Wang, Guiling; You, Liangzhi; Yu, Miao

    2016-02-01

    Agriculture is a key component of anthropogenic land use and land cover changes that influence regional climate. Meanwhile, in addition to socioeconomic drivers, climate is another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In this study, we compare the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa using a prototype land use projection (LandPro) algorithm. The algorithm is based on a balance between food supply and demand, and accounts for the impact of socioeconomic drivers on the demand side and the impact of climate-induced crop yield changes on the supply side. The impact of human decision-making on land use is explicitly considered through multiple "what-if" scenarios. In the application to West Africa, future crop yield changes were simulated by a process-based crop model driven with future climate projections from a regional climate model, and future changes of food demand is projected using a model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade. Without agricultural intensification, the climate-induced decrease in crop yield together with future increases in food demand is found to cause a significant increase in cropland areas at the expense of forest and grassland by the mid-century. The increase in agricultural land use is primarily climate-driven in the western part of West Africa and socioeconomically driven in the eastern part. Analysis of results from multiple scenarios of crop area allocation suggests that human adaptation characterized by science-informed decision-making can potentially minimize future land use changes in many parts of the region.

  14. Seeking potential contributions to future carbon budget in conterminous US forests considering disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Fangmin; Pan, Yude; Birdsey, Richard A.; Chen, Jing M.; Dugan, Alexa

    2016-09-01

    Currently, US forests constitute a large carbon sink, comprising about 9 % of the global terrestrial carbon sink. Wildfire is the most significant disturbance influencing carbon dynamics in US forests. Our objective is to estimate impacts of climate change, CO2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition on the future net biome productivity (NBP) of US forests until the end of twenty-first century under a range of disturbance conditions. We designate three forest disturbance scenarios under one future climate scenario to evaluate factor impacts for the future period (2011-2100): (1) no wildfires occur but forests continue to age (Saging), (2) no wildfires occur and forest ages are fixed in 2010 (Sfixed_nodis), and (3) wildfires occur according to a historical pattern, consequently changing forest age (Sdis_age_change). Results indicate that US forests remain a large carbon sink in the late twenty-first century under the Sfixed_nodis scenario; however, they become a carbon source under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios. During the period of 2011 to 2100, climate is projected to have a small direct effect on NBP, while atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition have large positive effects on NBP regardless of the future climate and disturbance scenarios. Meanwhile, responses to past disturbances under the Sfixed_nodis scenario increase NBP regardless of the future climate scenarios. Although disturbance effects on NBP under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios decrease with time, both scenarios experience an increase in NBP prior to the 2050s and then a decrease in NBP until the end of the twenty-first century. This study indicates that there is potential to increase or at least maintain the carbon sink of conterminous US forests at the current level if future wildfires are reduced and age structures are maintained at a productive mix. The effects of CO2 on the future carbon sink may overwhelm effects of other factors at the end of the twenty

  15. Beyond speculative robot ethics: A vision assessment study on the future of the robotic caretaker

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Plas, A.P. van der; Smits, M.; Wehrmann, C.

    2010-01-01

    In this article we develop a dialogue model for robot technology experts and designated users to discuss visions on the future of robotics in long-term care. Our vision assessment study aims for more distinguished and more informed visions on future robots. Surprisingly, our experiment also led to s

  16. Multiscale Modeling, Simulation and Visualization and Their Potential for Future Aerospace Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noor, Ahmed K. (Compiler)

    2002-01-01

    This document contains the proceedings of the Training Workshop on Multiscale Modeling, Simulation and Visualization and Their Potential for Future Aerospace Systems held at NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia, March 5 - 6, 2002. The workshop was jointly sponsored by Old Dominion University's Center for Advanced Engineering Environments and NASA. Workshop attendees were from NASA, other government agencies, industry, and universities. The objectives of the workshop were to give overviews of the diverse activities in hierarchical approach to material modeling from continuum to atomistics; applications of multiscale modeling to advanced and improved material synthesis; defects, dislocations, and material deformation; fracture and friction; thin-film growth; characterization at nano and micro scales; and, verification and validation of numerical simulations, and to identify their potential for future aerospace systems.

  17. Considering Future Potential Regarding Structural Diversity in Selection of Forest Reserves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundström, Johanna; Öhman, Karin; Rönnqvist, Mikael; Gustafsson, Lena

    2016-01-01

    A rich structural diversity in forests promotes biodiversity. Forests are dynamic and therefore it is crucial to consider future structural potential when selecting reserves, to make robust conservation decisions. We analyzed forests in boreal Sweden based on 17,599 National Forest Inventory (NFI) plots with the main aim to understand how effectiveness of reserves depends on the time dimension in the selection process, specifically by considering future structural diversity. In the study both the economic value and future values of 15 structural variables were simulated during a 100 year period. To get a net present structural value (NPSV), a single value covering both current and future values, we used four discounting alternatives: (1) only considering present values, (2) giving equal importance to values in each of the 100 years within the planning horizon, (3) applying an annual discount rate considering the risk that values could be lost, and (4) only considering the values in year 100. The four alternatives were evaluated in a reserve selection model under budget-constrained and area-constrained selections. When selecting young forests higher structural richness could be reached at a quarter of the cost over almost twice the area in a budget-constrained selection compared to an area-constrained selection. Our results point to the importance of considering future structural diversity in the selection of forest reserves and not as is done currently to base the selection on existing values. Targeting future values increases structural diversity and implies a relatively lower cost. Further, our results show that a re-orientation from old to young forests would imply savings while offering a more extensive reserve network with high structural qualities in the future. However, caution must be raised against a drastic reorientation of the current old-forest strategy since remnants of ancient forests will need to be prioritized due to their role for disturbance

  18. An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials

    CERN Document Server

    Mercure, J F

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an assessment of global economic energy potentials for all major natural energy resources. This work is based on both an extensive literature review and calculations using natural resource assessment data. Economic potentials are presented in the form of cost-supply curves, in terms of energy flows for renewable energy sources, or fixed amounts for fossil and nuclear resources, with strong emphasis on uncertainty, using a consistent methodology that allow direct comparisons to be made. In order to interpolate through available resource assessment data and associated uncertainty, a theoretical framework and a computational methodology are given based on statistical properties of different types of resources, justified empirically by the data, and used throughout. This work aims to provide a global database for natural energy resources ready to integrate into models of energy systems, enabling to introduce at the same time uncertainty over natural resource assessments. The supplementary mate...

  19. Anti-tick biological control agents: assessment and future perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samish, M.; Ginsberg, H.S.; Glazer, I.; Bowman, Alan. S.; Nuttall, Patricia A.

    2008-01-01

    Widespread and increasing resistance to most available acaracides threatens both global livestock industries and public health. This necessitates better understanding of ticks and the diseases they transmit in the development of new control strategies. Ticks: Biology, Disease and Control is written by an international collection of experts and covers in-depth information on aspects of the biology of the ticks themselves, various veterinary and medical tick-borne pathogens, and aspects of traditional and potential new control methods. A valuable resource for graduate students, academic researchers and professionals, the book covers the whole gamut of ticks and tick-borne diseases from microsatellites to satellite imagery and from exploiting tick saliva for therapeutic drugs to developing drugs to control tick populations. It encompasses the variety of interconnected fields impinging on the economically important and biologically fascinating phenomenon of ticks, the diseases they transmit and methods of their control.

  20. Palliative care in India: Situation assessment and future scope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kar, S S; Subitha, L; Iswarya, S

    2015-01-01

    Palliative care is an approach that improves the quality of life of patients and their families facing the problems associated with life-threatening illness, through prevention and relief of suffering by means of early identification, assessment and treatment of pain, and other problems - physical, psychosocial, and spiritual. It is estimated that in India the total number of people who need palliative care is likely to be 5.4 million people a year. Though palliative care services have been in existence for many years, India ranks at the bottom of the Quality of Death index in overall score. However there has been steady progress in the past few years through community-owned palliative care services. One of the key objectives of the National Programme for prevention and control of cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and stroke is to establish and develop capacity for palliative and rehabilitative care. Community models for the provision of home-based palliative care is possible by involving community caregivers and volunteers supervised by nurses trained in palliative care. Training of medical officers and health care professionals, and sensitization of the public through awareness campaigns are vital to improve the scope and coverage of palliative care. Process of translating palliative care plan into action requires strong leadership, competent management, political support and integration across all levels of care.

  1. Palliative care in India: Situation assessment and future scope

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S S Kar

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Palliative care is an approach that improves the quality of life of patients and their families facing the problems associated with life-threatening illness, through prevention and relief of suffering by means of early identification, assessment and treatment of pain, and other problems – physical, psychosocial, and spiritual. It is estimated that in India the total number of people who need palliative care is likely to be 5.4 million people a year. Though palliative care services have been in existence for many years, India ranks at the bottom of the Quality of Death index in overall score. However there has been steady progress in the past few years through community-owned palliative care services. One of the key objectives of the National Programme for prevention and control of cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and stroke is to establish and develop capacity for palliative and rehabilitative care. Community models for the provision of home-based palliative care is possible by involving community caregivers and volunteers supervised by nurses trained in palliative care. Training of medical officers and health care professionals, and sensitization of the public through awareness campaigns are vital to improve the scope and coverage of palliative care. Process of translating palliative care plan into action requires strong leadership, competent management, political support and integration across all levels of care.

  2. Modeling and assessment of future IGCC plant concepts with CO{sub 2} capture; Simulation und Bewertung zukuenftiger IGCC-Kraftwerkskonzepte mit CO{sub 2}-Abtrennung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kunze, Christian A.

    2012-07-13

    The thesis focuses on the assessment of efficiency potential of future IGCC plants with CO{sub 2} capture. Starting point is a comprehensive analysis (thermodynamic, economic and exergy) of a state of the art IGCC. Additionally, five future IGCC concepts are proposed and evaluated for their efficiency potential in the mid- and long-term. The concepts showed significantly higher efficiencies up to approximately 60% and enable an almost CO{sub 2}-free operation.

  3. Assessing the Impact of Saltwater Intrusion in the Carolinas under Future Climatic and Sea Level Conditions

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The goal of this research is to support coastal decision-makers in North Carolina and South Carolina by providing information about potential future precipitation...

  4. Assessing dengue vaccination impact: Model challenges and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recker, Mario; Vannice, Kirsten; Hombach, Joachim; Jit, Mark; Simmons, Cameron P

    2016-08-31

    In response to the sharp rise in the global burden caused by dengue virus (DENV) over the last few decades, the WHO has set out three specific key objectives in its disease control strategy: (i) to estimate the true burden of dengue by 2015; (ii) a reduction in dengue mortality by at least 50% by 2020 (used as a baseline); and (iii) a reduction in dengue morbidity by at least 25% by 2020. Although various elements will all play crucial parts in achieving this goal, from diagnosis and case management to integrated surveillance and outbreak response, sustainable vector control, vaccine implementation and finally operational and implementation research, it seems clear that new tools (e.g. a safe and effective vaccine and/or effective vector control) are key to success. The first dengue vaccine was licensed in December 2015, Dengvaxia® (CYD-TDV) developed by Sanofi Pasteur. The WHO has provided guidance on the use of CYD-TDV in endemic countries, for which there are a variety of considerations beyond the risk-benefit evaluation done by regulatory authorities, including public health impact and cost-effectiveness. Population-level vaccine impact and economic and financial aspects are two issues that can potentially be considered by means of mathematical modelling, especially for new products for which empirical data are still lacking. In December 2014 a meeting was convened by the WHO in order to revisit the current status of dengue transmission models and their utility for public health decision-making. Here, we report on the main points of discussion and the conclusions of this meeting, as well as next steps for maximising the use of mathematical models for vaccine decision-making.

  5. Ecological models for regulatory risk assessments of pesticides: Developing a strategy for the future.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thorbek, P.; Forbes, V.; Heimbach, F.; Hommen, U.; Thulke, H.H.; Brink, van den P.J.

    2010-01-01

    Ecological Models for Regulatory Risk Assessments of Pesticides: Developing a Strategy for the Future provides a coherent, science-based view on ecological modeling for regulatory risk assessments. It discusses the benefits of modeling in the context of registrations, identifies the obstacles that p

  6. Formative Assessment as a Component of the Future English Teacher Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimenko, Marina Viktorovna; Sleptsova, Larisa Arkadyevna

    2015-01-01

    The article deals with the problem of the initial stage of the future English teacher training and forming basic professional teaching skills by means of the implementation of formative assessment methods into the process of studying. It reveals the urgent necessity of using a modern and reliable system of assessment as a sound foundation of a…

  7. Intellectual Assessment of Children and Youth in Mexico: Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Escobedo, Pedro; Esquivel-Ancona, Fayne; Hollingworth, Liz

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe the history, current practices, and future directions in intellectual assessment of children and youth in Mexico. Differences and similarities with the United States are explored through the analysis of theoretical perspectives, practices, and policies. A summarized history of intellectual assessment is…

  8. 17 CFR 1.14 - Risk assessment recordkeeping requirements for futures commission merchants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... regarding sources of funding, together with a narrative discussion by management of the liquidity of the... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment recordkeeping... Related Reporting Requirements § 1.14 Risk assessment recordkeeping requirements for futures...

  9. Assessing the Potential of Mathematics Textbooks to Promote Deep Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shield, Malcolm; Dole, Shelley

    2013-01-01

    Curriculum documents for mathematics emphasise the importance of promoting depth of knowledge rather than shallow coverage of the curriculum. In this paper, we report on a study that explored the analysis of junior secondary mathematics textbooks to assess their potential to assist in teaching and learning aimed at building and applying deep…

  10. On the assessment of cross-border regions' development potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bilchak M. V.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This article sets out to assess the potential of cross-border region development on the basis of theoretical and methodological materials. The study examines the Kaliningrad region and Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship. The article is focused on the modelling of interindustry balance and export/import functions of border territories.

  11. Assessing the Training Potential of MTDS in Exercise First Wave

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gehr, S.E.; Schurig, M.; Jacobs, L.R.M.A.; Pal, J. van der; Bennett, W.; Schreiber, B.

    2005-01-01

    Exercise First WAVE (EFW) was conducted in November 2004 and was the first large-scale NATO MTDS event that focused on investigating and providing COMAO training for warfighters and mission support staff in a distributed synthetic environment. To assess the training potential of EFW, the NATO partne

  12. A modified potential probe for induction charging risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fast, Lars; Paasi, Jaakko

    2008-12-01

    Practical assessment of risks for Electrostatic Discharge (ESD) failures of semiconductor devices, due to charges induced on devices in a manufacturing or repair environment of electronics has been difficult, because easily measurable parameters such as the electrostatic field and the potential of a charged surface do not directly quantify the risk. In this paper a new method of assessing the risks with induction charging of a sensitive device is presented by introducing a well-defined dummy device, which is a simple modification of the probe of DC type non-contacting electrostatic voltmeter. By placing the modified potential probe (mimicking large sensitive device) in front of charged surface, risks of ESD failure for a device due to induction charging can be assessed. The electrostatic response of the probe at different distances between charged surface and the probe has been verified by numerical model calculations.

  13. Assessing Current and Future Freshwater Flood Risk from North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones via Insurance Claims

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czajkowski, Jeffrey; Villarini, Gabriele; Montgomery, Marilyn; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Goska, Radoslaw

    2017-01-01

    The most recent decades have witnessed record breaking losses associated with U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). Flood-related damages represent a large portion of these losses, and although storm surge is typically the main focus in the media and of warnings, much of the TC flood losses are instead freshwater-driven, often extending far inland from the landfall locations. Despite this actuality, knowledge of TC freshwater flood risk is still limited. Here we provide for the first time a comprehensive assessment of the TC freshwater flood risk from the full set of all significant flood events associated with U.S. landfalling TCs from 2001 to 2014. We find that the areas impacted by freshwater flooding are nearly equally divided between coastal and inland areas. We determine the statistical relationship between physical hazard and residential economic impact at a community level for the entire country. These results allow us to assess the potential future changes in TC freshwater flood risk due to changing climate pattern and urbanization in a more heavily populated U.S. Findings have important implications for flood risk management, insurance and resilience. PMID:28148952

  14. Assessing Current and Future Freshwater Flood Risk from North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones via Insurance Claims

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czajkowski, Jeffrey; Villarini, Gabriele; Montgomery, Marilyn; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Goska, Radoslaw

    2017-02-01

    The most recent decades have witnessed record breaking losses associated with U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). Flood-related damages represent a large portion of these losses, and although storm surge is typically the main focus in the media and of warnings, much of the TC flood losses are instead freshwater-driven, often extending far inland from the landfall locations. Despite this actuality, knowledge of TC freshwater flood risk is still limited. Here we provide for the first time a comprehensive assessment of the TC freshwater flood risk from the full set of all significant flood events associated with U.S. landfalling TCs from 2001 to 2014. We find that the areas impacted by freshwater flooding are nearly equally divided between coastal and inland areas. We determine the statistical relationship between physical hazard and residential economic impact at a community level for the entire country. These results allow us to assess the potential future changes in TC freshwater flood risk due to changing climate pattern and urbanization in a more heavily populated U.S. Findings have important implications for flood risk management, insurance and resilience.

  15. An assessment of wind energy potential in Iberia under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Santos, João A.; Rochinha, Carlos; Reyers, Mark; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2015-04-01

    Wind energy potential in Iberia is assessed for recent-past (1961-2000) and future (2041-2070) climates. For recent-past, a COSMO-CLM simulation driven by ERA-40 is used. COSMO-CLM simulations driven by ECHAM5 following the A1B scenario are used for future projections. A 2 MW rated power wind turbine is selected. Mean potentials, inter-annual variability and irregularity are discussed on annual/seasonal scales and on a grid resolution of 20 km. For detailed regional assessments eight target sites are considered. For recent-past conditions, the highest daily mean potentials are found in winter over northern and eastern Iberia, particularly on high-elevation or coastal regions. In northwestern Iberia, daily potentials frequently reach maximum wind energy output (50 MWh day-1), particularly in winter. Southern Andalucía reveals high potentials throughout the year, whereas the Ebro valley and central-western coast show high potentials in summer. The irregularity in annual potentials is moderate (2 MWh day-1). The northward displacement of North Atlantic westerly winds (autumn-spring) and the strengthening of easterly flows (summer) are key drivers of future projections. Santos, J.A.; Rochinha, C.; Liberato, M.L.R.; Reyers, M.; Pinto, J.G. (2015) Projected changes in wind energy potentials over Iberia. Renewable Energy, 75, 1: 68-80. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2014.09.026 Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

  16. Assessing the Impacts of Future Climate Change on Protected Area Networks: A Method to Simulate Individual Species' Responses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willis, Stephen; Hole, Dave; Collingham, Yvonne

    2009-01-01

    Global climate change, along with continued habitat loss and fragmentation, is now recognized as being a major threat to future biodiversity. There is a very real threat to species, arising from the need to shift their ranges in the future to track regions of suitable climate. The Important Bird....... In this article, we provide a method to simulate the occurrence of species of conservation concern in protected areas, which could be used as a first-step approach to assess the potential impacts of climate change upon such species in protected areas. We use species-climate response surface models to relate...... technique provides good simulations of current species' occurrence in protected areas. We then use basic habitat data for IBAs along with habitat preference data for the species to reduce over-prediction and further improve predictive ability. This approach can be used with future climate change scenarios...

  17. Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessments of Pyroclastic Density Currents: ongoing practices and future perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierz, Pablo; Sandri, Laura; Ramona Stefanescu, Elena; Patra, Abani; Marzocchi, Warner; Costa, Antonio; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2014-05-01

    Explosive volcanoes and, especially, Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDCs) pose an enormous threat to populations living in the surroundings of volcanic areas. Difficulties in the modeling of PDCs are related to (i) very complex and stochastic physical processes, intrinsic to their occurrence, and (ii) to a lack of knowledge about how these processes actually form and evolve. This means that there are deep uncertainties (namely, of aleatory nature due to point (i) above, and of epistemic nature due to point (ii) above) associated to the study and forecast of PDCs. Consequently, the assessment of their hazard is better described in terms of probabilistic approaches rather than by deterministic ones. What is actually done to assess probabilistic hazard from PDCs is to couple deterministic simulators with statistical techniques that can, eventually, supply probabilities and inform about the uncertainties involved. In this work, some examples of both PDC numerical simulators (Energy Cone and TITAN2D) and uncertainty quantification techniques (Monte Carlo sampling -MC-, Polynomial Chaos Quadrature -PCQ- and Bayesian Linear Emulation -BLE-) are presented, and their advantages, limitations and future potential are underlined. The key point in choosing a specific method leans on the balance between its related computational cost, the physical reliability of the simulator and the pursued target of the hazard analysis (type of PDCs considered, time-scale selected for the analysis, particular guidelines received from decision-making agencies, etc.). Although current numerical and statistical techniques have brought important advances in probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment from PDCs, some of them may be further applicable to more sophisticated simulators. In addition, forthcoming improvements could be focused on three main multidisciplinary directions: 1) Validate the simulators frequently used (through comparison with PDC deposits and other simulators), 2) Decrease

  18. Current codex guidelines for assessment of potential protein allergenicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladics, G S

    2008-10-01

    A rigorous safety assessment process exists for GM crops. It includes evaluation of the introduced protein as well as the crop containing such protein with the goal of demonstrating the GM crop is "as-safe-as" non-transgenic crops in the food supply. One of the major issues for GM crops is the assessment of the expressed protein for allergenic potential. Currently, no single factor is recognized as an identifier for protein allergenicity. Therefore, a weight-of-evidence approach, which takes into account a variety of factors and approaches for an overall assessment of allergenic potential, is conducted [Codex Alimentarious Commission, 2003. Alinorm 03/34: Joint FAO/WHO Food Standard Programme, Codex Alimentarious Commission, Twenty-Fifth Session, Rome, Italy, 30 June-5 July, 2003. Appendix III, Guideline for the conduct of food safety assessment of foods derived from recombinant-DNA plants, and Appendix IV, Annex on the assessment of possible allergenicity, pp. 47-60]. This assessment is based on what is known about allergens, including the history of exposure and safety of the gene(s) source; protein structure (e.g., amino acid sequence identity to human allergens); stability to pepsin digestion in vitro [Thomas, K. et al., 2004. A multi-laboratory evaluation of a common in vitro pepsin digestion assay protocol used in assessing the safety of novel proteins. Regul. Toxicol. Pharmacol. 39, 87-98]; an estimate of exposure of the novel protein(s) to the gastrointestinal tract where absorption occurs (e.g., protein abundance in the crop, processing effects); and when appropriate, specific IgE binding studies or skin prick testing. Additional approaches may be considered (e.g., animal models; targeted sera screening) as the science evolves; however, such approaches have not been thoroughly evaluated or validated for predicting protein allergenicity.

  19. Recording and assessment of evoked potentials with electrode arrays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miljković, N; Malešević, N; Kojić, V; Bijelić, G; Keller, T; Popović, D B

    2015-09-01

    In order to optimize procedure for the assessment of evoked potentials and to provide visualization of the flow of action potentials along the motor systems, we introduced array electrodes for stimulation and recording and developed software for the analysis of the recordings. The system uses a stimulator connected to an electrode array for the generation of evoked potentials, an electrode array connected to the amplifier, A/D converter and computer for the recording of evoked potentials, and a dedicated software application. The method has been tested for the assessment of the H-reflex on the triceps surae muscle in six healthy humans. The electrode array with 16 pads was positioned over the posterior aspect of the thigh, while the recording electrode array with 16 pads was positioned over the triceps surae muscle. The stimulator activated all the pads of the stimulation electrode array asynchronously, while the signals were recorded continuously at all the recording sites. The results are topography maps (spatial distribution of evoked potentials) and matrices (spatial visualization of nerve excitability). The software allows the automatic selection of the lowest stimulation intensity to achieve maximal H-reflex amplitude and selection of the recording/stimulation pads according to predefined criteria. The analysis of results shows that the method provides rich information compared with the conventional recording of the H-reflex with regard the spatial distribution.

  20. Chemical conditions in present and future ecosystems in Forsmark - implications for selected radionuclides in the safety assessment SR-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Troejbom, Mats (Mats Troejbom Konsult AB (Sweden)); Grolander, Sara (Facilia AB (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    This report is a background report for the biosphere analysis of the SR-Site Safety Assessment. This work aims to describe the future development of the chemical conditions at Forsmark, based on the present chemical conditions at landscape level taking landscape development and climate cases into consideration. The results presented contribute to the overall understanding of the present and future chemistry in the Forsmark area, and specifically, to the understanding of the behaviour of some selected radionuclides in the surface system. The future development of the chemistry at the site is qualitatively discussed with focus on the interglacial within the next 10,000 years. The effects on the chemical environment of future climate cases as Global Warming and cold permafrost climates are also briefly discussed. The work is presented in two independent parts describing background radionuclide activities in the Forsmark area and the distribution and behaviour of a large number of stable elements in the landscape. In a concluding section, implications of the future chemical environment of a selection of radionuclides important in the Safety Assessment are discussed based on the knowledge of stable elements. The broad range of elements studied show that there are general and expected patterns for the distribution and behaviour in the landscape of different groups of elements. Mass balances reveal major sources and sinks, pool estimations show where elements are accumulated in the landscape and estimations of time-scales give indications of the potential future development. This general knowledge is transferred to radionuclides not measured in order to estimate their behaviour and distribution in the landscape. It could be concluded that the future development of the chemical environment in the Forsmark area might affect element specific parameters used in de radionuclide model in different directions depending on element. The alternative climate cases, Global Warming

  1. The emerging era of pharmacogenomics: current successes, future potential, and challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, J W; Aminkeng, F; Bhavsar, A P; Shaw, K; Carleton, B C; Hayden, M R; Ross, C J D

    2014-07-01

    The vast range of genetic diversity contributes to a wonderful array of human traits and characteristics. Unfortunately, a consequence of this genetic diversity is large variability in drug response between people, meaning that no single medication is safe and effective in everyone. The debilitating and sometimes deadly consequences of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) are a major and unmet problem of modern medicine. Pharmacogenomics can uncover associations between genetic variation and drug safety and has the potential to predict ADRs in individual patients. Here we review pharmacogenomic successes leading to changes in clinical practice, as well as clinical areas probably to be impacted by pharmacogenomics in the near future. We also discuss some of the challenges, and potential solutions, that remain for the implementation of pharmacogenomic testing into clinical practice for the significant improvement of drug safety.

  2. Beyond speculative robot ethics: a vision assessment study on the future of the robotic caretaker.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Plas, Arjanna; Smits, Martijntje; Wehrmann, Caroline

    2010-11-01

    In this article we develop a dialogue model for robot technology experts and designated users to discuss visions on the future of robotics in long-term care. Our vision assessment study aims for more distinguished and more informed visions on future robots. Surprisingly, our experiment also led to some promising co-designed robot concepts in which jointly articulated moral guidelines are embedded. With our model, we think to have designed an interesting response on a recent call for a less speculative ethics of technology by encouraging discussions about the quality of positive and negative visions on the future of robotics.

  3. Review: Assessing the climate mitigation potential of biomass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Moriarty

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available For many millennia, humans have used biomass for three broad purposes: food for humans and fodder for farm animals; energy; and materials. Food has always been exclusively produced from biomass, and in the year 1800, biomass still accounted for about 95% of all energy. Biomass has also been a major source of materials for construction, implements, clothing, bedding and other uses, but some researchers think that total human uses of biomass will soon reach limits of sustainability. It is thus important to select those biomass uses that will maximise global climate change benefits. With a ‘food first’ policy, it is increasingly recognised that projections of food needs are important for estimating future global bioenergy potential, and that non-food uses of biomass can be increased by both food crop yield improvements and dietary changes. However, few researchers have explicitly included future biomaterials production as a factor in bioenergy potential. Although biomaterials’ share of the materials market has roughly halved over the past quarter-century, we show that per tonne of biomass, biomaterials will usually allow greater greenhouse gas reductions than directly using biomass for bioenergy. particularly since in many cases, biomaterials can be later burnt for energy after their useful life.

  4. Embedded performance validity testing in neuropsychological assessment: Potential clinical tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rickards, Tyler A; Cranston, Christopher C; Touradji, Pegah; Bechtold, Kathleen T

    2017-01-31

    The article aims to suggest clinically-useful tools in neuropsychological assessment for efficient use of embedded measures of performance validity. To accomplish this, we integrated available validity-related and statistical research from the literature, consensus statements, and survey-based data from practicing neuropsychologists. We provide recommendations for use of 1) Cutoffs for embedded performance validity tests including Reliable Digit Span, California Verbal Learning Test (Second Edition) Forced Choice Recognition, Rey-Osterrieth Complex Figure Test Combination Score, Wisconsin Card Sorting Test Failure to Maintain Set, and the Finger Tapping Test; 2) Selecting number of performance validity measures to administer in an assessment; and 3) Hypothetical clinical decision-making models for use of performance validity testing in a neuropsychological assessment collectively considering behavior, patient reporting, and data indicating invalid or noncredible performance. Performance validity testing helps inform the clinician about an individual's general approach to tasks: response to failure, task engagement and persistence, compliance with task demands. Data-driven clinical suggestions provide a resource to clinicians and to instigate conversation within the field to make more uniform, testable decisions to further the discussion, and guide future research in this area.

  5. Assessing the Future of Distributed Wind: Opportunities for Behind-the-Meter Projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Preus, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Baring-Gould, Ian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-11-01

    Wind power is one of the fastest growing sources of new electricity generation in the United States. Cumulative installed capacity was more than 74,000 megawatts (MW) at year-end 2015 and wind power supplied 4.7% of total 2015 U.S. electricity generation. Despite the growth of the wind power industry, the distributed wind market has remained limited. Cumulative installations of distributed wind through 2015 totaled 934 MW. This first-of-a-kind exploratory analysis characterizes the future opportunity for behind-the-meter distributed wind, serving primarily rural or suburban homes, farms, and manufacturing facilities. This work focuses only on the grid-connected, behind-the-meter subset of the broader distributed wind market. We estimate this segment to be approximately half of the 934 MW of total installed distributed wind capacity at year-end 2015. Potential from other distributed wind market segments including systems installed in front of the meter (e.g., community wind) and in remote, off-grid locations is not assessed in this analysis and therefore, would be additive to results presented here. These other distributed wind market segments are not considered in this initial effort because of their relatively unique economic and market attributes.

  6. Policy Research Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Impacts of Urban Expansion into Farmlands and Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael R. Guzy

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of urban land uses into farmlands and forests requires an assessment of future ecological impacts. Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies. When modeling complex adaptive systems, both the methods used to interpret results and the standards of rigor used to judge adequacy are complicated and require additional research. Recent studies suggest that it would be appropriate to use these models as an extension of exploratory analysis. This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about potential changes to the system. In this study, we develop understanding of the potential alternative futures for a social-ecological system by way of successive simulations that test variations in the types and numbers of policies. The model addresses the agricultural-urban interface and the preservation of ecosystem services. The landscape analyzed is at the junction of the McKenzie and Willamette Rivers adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield in Lane County, Oregon. Our exploration of alternative future scenarios suggests that policies that constrain urban growth and create incentives for farming and forest enterprises to preserve and enhance habitat can protect ecosystem resilience and services.

  7. Meaningful Peer Review in Radiology: A Review of Current Practices and Potential Future Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moriarity, Andrew K; Hawkins, C Matthew; Geis, J Raymond; Dreyer, Keith J; Kamer, Aaron P; Khandheria, Paras; Morey, Jose; Whitfill, James; Wiggins, Richard H; Itri, Jason N

    2016-12-01

    The current practice of peer review within radiology is well developed and widely implemented compared with other medical specialties. However, there are many factors that limit current peer review practices from reducing diagnostic errors and improving patient care. The development of "meaningful peer review" requires a transition away from compliance toward quality improvement, whereby the information and insights gained facilitate education and drive systematic improvements that reduce the frequency and impact of diagnostic error. The next generation of peer review requires significant improvements in IT functionality and integration, enabling features such as anonymization, adjudication by multiple specialists, categorization and analysis of errors, tracking, feedback, and easy export into teaching files and other media that require strong partnerships with vendors. In this article, the authors assess various peer review practices, with focused discussion on current limitations and future needs for meaningful peer review in radiology.

  8. Microbial lipid signatures and substrate potential of organic matter in permafrost deposits: Implications for future greenhouse gas production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stapel, J. G.; Schirrmeister, L.; Overduin, P. P.; Wetterich, S.; Strauss, J.; Horsfield, B.; Mangelsdorf, K.

    2016-10-01

    A terrestrial permafrost core from Buor Khaya in northern Siberia comprising deposits of Late Pleistocene to Early Holocene age has been investigated to characterize living and past microbial communities with respect to modern and paleoclimate environmental conditions and to evaluate the potential of the organic matter (OM) for greenhouse gas generation. Microbial life markers—intact phospholipids and phospholipid fatty acids—are found throughout the entire core and indicate the presence of living microorganisms also in older permafrost deposits. Biomarkers for past microbial communities (branched and isoprenoid glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether as well as archaeol) reveal links between increased past microbial activity and intervals of high OM accumulation accompanied by increased OM quality presumably caused by local periods of moister and warmer environmental conditions. Concentrations of acetate as an excellent substrate for methanogenesis are used to assess the OM quality with respect to microbial degradability for greenhouse gas production. For this purpose two acetate pools are determined: the pore water acetate and OM bound acetate. Both depth profiles reveal similarities to the OM content and quality indicating a link between the amount of the stored OM and the potential to provide substrates for microbial greenhouse gas production. The data suggest that OM stored in the permafrost deposits is not much different in terms of OM quality than the fresh surface organic material. Considering the expected increase of permafrost thaw due to climate warming, this implies a potentially strong impact on greenhouse gas generation from permafrost areas in future with positive feedback on climate variation.

  9. Artificial neural networks in gynaecological diseases: current and potential future applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siristatidis, Charalampos S; Chrelias, Charalampos; Pouliakis, Abraham; Katsimanis, Evangelos; Kassanos, Dimitrios

    2010-10-01

    Current (and probably future) practice of medicine is mostly associated with prediction and accurate diagnosis. Especially in clinical practice, there is an increasing interest in constructing and using valid models of diagnosis and prediction. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are mathematical systems being used as a prospective tool for reliable, flexible and quick assessment. They demonstrate high power in evaluating multifactorial data, assimilating information from multiple sources and detecting subtle and complex patterns. Their capability and difference from other statistical techniques lies in performing nonlinear statistical modelling. They represent a new alternative to logistic regression, which is the most commonly used method for developing predictive models for outcomes resulting from partitioning in medicine. In combination with the other non-algorithmic artificial intelligence techniques, they provide useful software engineering tools for the development of systems in quantitative medicine. Our paper first presents a brief introduction to ANNs, then, using what we consider the best available evidence through paradigms, we evaluate the ability of these networks to serve as first-line detection and prediction techniques in some of the most crucial fields in gynaecology. Finally, through the analysis of their current application, we explore their dynamics for future use.

  10. ASSESSMENT OF STUDENTS’ PROFESSIONAL COMPETENCIES – THE FUTURE TEACHERS OF MATHEMATICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariya B. Shashkina

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the investigation is to describe the authors’ approach to the assessment of the professional competence of the future teacher of mathematics.Methods. The methods involve comparative analysis of the Professional Standard of the teacher and the Federal State Educational Standards in teacher education, as well as the method of predictive analysis of modern educational situation.Results. Qualimetric approach to the structuring of the professional competencies of students is described; it allows concretizing the assessment object, to select the criteria and levels of its formedness, to trace the dynamics of development in the medium of profile preparation of a bachelor. The methodology of assessment a professional-profile competence of the future mathematics teachers is proposed; examples of the competence-assessment tools are provided.Scientific novelty. The study gives a detailed analysis of developing the innovative approach to competencies assessment as metasubject learning outcomes.Practical significance. The proposed method of competencies assessment can be used in the mathematical preparation of the future mathematics teacher, and can serve as a basis for monitoring the professional competencies of students.

  11. Radar imagery interpretation to assess the hydrocarbon potential of four sites in the Philippines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1988-11-17

    The Republic of the Philippines is intensely interested in the identification, development, and conservation of natural resources. In keeping with this, the Government of the Philippines has recently completed a nationwide sedimentary basin evaluation program to assess hydrocarbon potential and assist in future exploration activities. This program of collection and interpretation of the radar imagery was designed to augment and complement the existing data base. The primary objective of the project was to further the goals of international energy development by aiding the Republic of the Philippines in the assessment of potential petroleum and geothermal prospects within the areas imaged. Secondary goals were to assist the Republic of the Philippines in utilizing state-of-the-art radar remote sensing technology for resource exploration, and to train key Philippines scientists in the use of imaging radar data. 29 refs., 30 figs., 14 tabs.

  12. The potential for snow to supply human water demand in the present and future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mankin, Justin S.; Viviroli, Daniel; Singh, Deepti; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

    2015-11-01

    Runoff from snowmelt is regarded as a vital water source for people and ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Numerous studies point to the threat global warming poses to the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt. But analyses focused on snow supply do not show where changes to snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given sub-annual patterns of human water consumption and water availability from rainfall. We identify the NH basins where present spring and summer snowmelt has the greatest potential to supply the human water demand that would otherwise be unmet by instantaneous rainfall runoff. Using a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections, we find that these basins—which together have a present population of ∼2 billion people—are exposed to a 67% risk of decreased snow supply this coming century. Further, in the multi-model mean, 68 basins (with a present population of >300 million people) transition from having sufficient rainfall runoff to meet all present human water demand to having insufficient rainfall runoff. However, internal climate variability creates irreducible uncertainty in the projected future trends in snow resource potential, with about 90% of snow-sensitive basins showing potential for either increases or decreases over the near-term decades. Our results emphasize the importance of snow for fulfilling human water demand in many NH basins, and highlight the need to account for the full range of internal climate variability in developing robust climate risk management decisions.

  13. Assessment of liquefaction potential during earthquakes by arias intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayen, R.E.; Mitchell, J.K.

    1997-01-01

    An Arias intensity approach to assess the liquefaction potential of soil deposits during earthquakes is proposed, using an energy-based measure of the severity of earthquake-shaking recorded on seismograms of the two horizontal components of ground motion. Values representing the severity of strong motion at depth in the soil column are associated with the liquefaction resistance of that layer, as measured by in situ penetration testing (SPT, CPT). This association results in a magnitude-independent boundary that envelopes initial liquefaction of soil in Arias intensity-normalized penetration resistance space. The Arias intensity approach is simple to apply and has proven to be highly reliable in assessing liquefaction potential. The advantages of using Arias intensity as a measure of earthquake-shaking severity in liquefaction assessment are: Arias intensity is derived from integration of the entire seismogram wave form, incorporating both the amplitude and duration elements of ground motion; all frequencies of recorded motion are considered; and Arias intensity is an appropriate measure to use when evaluating field penetration test methodologies that are inherently energy-based. Predictor equations describing the attenuation of Arias intensity as a function of earthquake magnitude and source distance are presented for rock, deep-stiff alluvium, and soft soil sites.

  14. Concentrating solar power. Its potential contribution to a sustainable energy future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    detail, much of what is presented in this report on the development of CSP technologies and economics will also be relevant to these alternative applications of CSP. Following a chapter summarising the policy context, the current status of CSP and associated thermal energy storage technologies are described in Chapters 3 and 4. Chapter 5 then discusses the economics of CSP, considering cost reduction potential and consequent time-frames for cost competitiveness, and the value of CSP with storage and/or auxiliary firing in electricity markets. The environmental impacts of CSP are evaluated in Chapter 6 before a review of the potential future contribution of CSP in Europe and the MENA region presented in Chapter 7. Conclusions and recommendations follow, with a bibliography of the references informing this report and annexes providing supporting detail, and a glossary of terms at Annex 2.

  15. Intellectual Assessment of Children and Youth in Japan: Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishikuma, Toshinori; Matsuda, Osamu; Fujita, Kazuhiro; Ueno, Kazuhiko

    2016-01-01

    This article briefly reviews the history of intellectual assessment with children and youth in Japan, as well as current practices and future directions. The history of intelligence test use in Japan began in the early 20th century. Since the 21st century, three major intelligence tests, namely, the Wechsler Intelligence Scales, the Kaufman…

  16. Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Amanda; Kumar, Sunil; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

    2016-01-01

    Regional analysis of large wildfire potential given climate change scenarios is crucial to understanding areas most at risk in the future, yet wildfire models are not often developed and tested at this spatial scale. We fit three historical climate suitability models for large wildfires (i.e. ≥ 400 ha) in Colorado andWyoming using topography and decadal climate averages corresponding to wildfire occurrence at the same temporal scale. The historical models classified points of known large wildfire occurrence with high accuracies. Using a novel approach in wildfire modeling, we applied the historical models to independent climate and wildfire datasets, and the resulting sensitivities were 0.75, 0.81, and 0.83 for Maxent, Generalized Linear, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, respectively. We projected the historic models into future climate space using data from 15 global circulation models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Maps from these geospatial analyses can be used to evaluate the changing spatial distribution of climate suitability of large wildfires in these states. April relative humidity was the most important covariate in all models, providing insight to the climate space of large wildfires in this region. These methods incorporate monthly and seasonal climate averages at a spatial resolution relevant to land management (i.e. 1 km2) and provide a tool that can be modified for other regions of North America, or adapted for other parts of the world.

  17. Future climate variability impacts on potential erosion and soil organic carbon in European croplands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. van der Velde

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the impact of future climate variability on the potential vulnerability of soils to erosion and the consequences for soil organic carbon (SOC in European croplands. Soil erosion is an important carbon flux not characterized in Earth System Models. We use a~European implementation of EPIC, driven by reference climate data (CNTRL, and climate data with reduced variability (REDVAR. Whether erosion regimes will change across European cropland depends on the spatial conjunction of expected changes in climate variability and physiographic conditions conducive to erosion. We isolated the effect of erosion by performing simulations with and without erosion. Median CNTRL and REDVAR erosion rates equalled 14.4 and 9.1 ton ha−1, and 19.1 and 9.7, for 1981–2010 and 2071–2100, respectively. The total amount of carbon lost from European cropland due to erosion was estimated at 769 Tg C for 1981–2010 (from a total storage of 6197 Tg C without erosion under CNTRL climate. Climate trend impacts reduce the European cropland SOC stock by 578 Tg C without – and by 683 Tg C with erosion, from 1981 to 2100. Climate variability compounds these impacts and decreases the stock by an estimated 170 Tg without erosion and by 314 Tg C with erosion, by the end of the century. Future climate variability and erosion will thus compound impacts on SOC stocks arising from gradual climate change alone.

  18. Current Clinical Applications and Future Potential of Diffusion Tensor Imaging in Traumatic Brain Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauss, Sara; Hulkower, Miriam; Gulko, Edwin; Zampolin, Richard L; Gutman, David; Chitkara, Munish; Zughaft, Malka; Lipton, Michael L

    2015-12-01

    In the setting of acute central nervous system (CNS) emergencies, computed tomography (CT) and conventional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) play an important role in the identification of life-threatening intracranial injury. However, the full extent or even presence of brain damage frequently escapes detection by conventional CT and MRI. Advanced MRI techniques such as diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) are emerging as important adjuncts in the diagnosis of microstructural white matter injury in the acute and postacute brain-injured patient. Although DTI aids in detection of brain injury pathology, which has been repeatedly associated with typical adverse clinical outcomes, the evolution of acute changes and their long-term prognostic implications are less clear and the subject of much active research. A major aim of current research is to identify imaging-based biomarkers that can identify the subset of TBI patients who are at risk for adverse outcome and can therefore most benefit from ongoing care and rehabilitation as well as future therapeutic interventions.The aim of this study is to introduce the current methods used to obtain DTI in the clinical setting, describe a set of common interpretation strategies with their associated advantages and pitfalls, as well as illustrate the clinical utility of DTI through a set of specific patient scenarios. We conclude with a discussion of future potential for the management of TBI.

  19. NASA's Vision for Potential Energy Reduction from Future Generations of Propulsion Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haller, Bill

    2015-01-01

    Through a robust partnership with the aviation industry, over the past 50 years NASA programs have helped foster advances in propulsion technology that enabled substantial reductions in fuel consumption for commercial transports. Emerging global trends and continuing environmental concerns are creating challenges that will very likely transform the face of aviation over the next 20-40 years. In recognition of this development, NASA Aeronautics has established a set of Research Thrusts that will help define the future direction of the agency's research technology efforts. Two of these thrusts, Ultra-Efficient Commercial Vehicles and Transition to Low-Carbon Propulsion, serve as cornerstones for the Advanced Air Transport Technology (AATT) project. The AATT project is exploring and developing high-payoff technologies and concepts that are key to continued improvement in energy efficiency and environmental compatibility for future generations of fixed-wing, subsonic transports. The AATT project is primarily focused on the N+3 timeframe, or 3 generations from current technology levels. As should be expected, many of the propulsion system architectures technologies envisioned for N+3 vary significantly from todays engines. The use of batteries in a hybrid-electric configuration or deploying multiple fans distributed across the airframe to enable higher bypass ratios are just two examples of potential advances that could enable substantial energy reductions over current propulsion systems.

  20. THE POTENTIAL OF BIOCHEMISTRY EDUCATION APPS IN THE FORMATIVE ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. L. Oliveira

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and objectives: Apps can be designed to provide usage data, and most of them do. These data are usually used to map users interests and to deliver more effective ads that are more likely to result in clicks, and sales. We have applied some of these metrics to understand how can it be used to map students’ behavior and to promote a formative assessment using educational software. The purpose of a formative assessment is to monitor student learning to provide ongoing feedback that can be used by instructors and students to improve the teaching and learning process. Thus, this modality aims to help both students and instructors to identify strengths and weaknesses that need to be developed. This study aimed to describe the potential of educational apps in the formative assessment process. Material and Methods: We have implemented assessment tools embedded in three apps (ARMET, The Cell and 3D Class used to teach: 1 Metabolic Pathways; 2 Scale of the cellular structures, and 3 Concepts from techniques used in a Biochemistry Lab course. The implemented tools allow to verify on what issues there were recurring mistakes, the total number of mistakes presented, which questions they most achieved, how long they took to perform the activity and other relevant information. Results and conclusion: Educational apps can provide transparent and coherent evaluation metrics to enable instructors to systematize more consistent criteria and indicators, reducing the subjectivity of the formative assessment process and the time spent for preparation, tabulation and analysis of assessment data. This approach allows instructors to understand better where students struggle, giving to them a more effective feedback. It also helps instructor to plan interventions to help students to perform better and to achieve the learning objectives.

  1. Potential contributions of noncontact atomic force microscopy for the future Casimir force measurements

    CERN Document Server

    Kim, W J

    2010-01-01

    Surface electric noise, i.e., the non-uniform distribution of charges and potentials on a surface, poses a great experimental challenge in modern precision force measurements. Such a challenge is encountered in a number of different experimental circumstances. The scientists employing atomic force microscopy (AFM) have long focused their efforts to understand the surface-related noise issues via variants of AFM techniques, such as Kelvin probe force microscopy or electric force microscopy. Recently, the physicists investigating quantum vacuum fluctuation phenomena between two closely-spaced objects have also begun to collect experimental evidence indicating a presence of surface effects neglected in their previous analyses. It now appears that the two seemingly disparate science communities are encountering effects rooted in the same surface phenomena. In this report, we suggest specific experimental tasks to be performed in the near future that are crucial not only for fostering needed collaborations between...

  2. Current status and future potential of energy derived from Chinese agricultural land: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Ningning; Mao, Chunlan; Feng, Yongzhong; Zhang, Tong; Xing, Zhenjie; Wang, Yanhong; Zou, Shuzhen; Yin, Dongxue; Han, Xinhui; Ren, Guangxin; Yang, Gaihe

    2015-01-01

    Energy crisis is receiving attention with regard to the global economy and environmental sustainable development. Developing new energy resources to optimize the energy supply structure has become an important measure to prevent energy shortage as well as achieving energy conservation and emission reduction in China. This study proposed the concept of energy agriculture and constructed an energy agricultural technical support system based on the analysis of energy supply and demand and China's foreign dependence on energy resources, combined with the function of agriculture in the energy field. Manufacturing technology equipment and agricultural and forestry energy, including crop or forestry plants and animal feces, were used in the system. The current status and future potential of China's marginal land resources, energy crop germplasm resources, and agricultural and forestry waste energy-oriented resources were analyzed. Developing the function of traditional agriculture in food production may promote China's social, economic, and environmental sustainable development and achieve energy saving and emission reduction.

  3. Potential future impact of a partially effective HIV vaccine in a southern African setting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Phillips, Andrew N; Cambiano, Valentina; Nakagawa, Fumiyo

    2014-01-01

    of efficacy characteristics, in the context of continued ART roll-out in southern Africa. RESULTS: In the context of our base case epidemic (in 2015 HIV prevalence 28% and incidence 1.7 per 100 person years), a vaccine with only 30% preventative efficacy could make a substantial difference in the rate......BACKGROUND: It is important for public health and within the HIV vaccine development field to understand the potential population level impact of an HIV vaccine of partial efficacy--both in preventing infection and in reducing viral load in vaccinated individuals who become infected--in the context...... of a realistic future implementation scenario in resource limited settings. METHODS: An individual level model of HIV transmission, progression and the effect of antiretroviral therapy was used to predict the outcome to 2060 of introduction in 2025 of a partially effective vaccine with various combinations...

  4. Nuclear fusion and its large potential for the future world energy supply

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ongena Jef

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available An overview of the energy problem in the world is presented. The colossal task of ‘decarbonizing’ the current energy system, with ~85% of the primary energy produced from fossil sources is discussed. There are at the moment only two options that can contribute to a solution: renewable energy (sun, wind, hydro, etc. or nuclear fission. Their contributions, ~2% for sun and wind, ~6% for hydro and ~5% for fission, will need to be enormously increased in a relatively short time, to meet the targets set by policy makers. The possible role and large potential for fusion to contribute to a solution in the future as a safe, nearly inexhaustible and environmentally compatible energy source is discussed. The principles of magnetic and inertial confinement are outlined, and the two main options for magnetic confinement, tokamak and stellarator, are explained. The status of magnetic fusion is summarized and the next steps in fusion research, ITER and DEMO, briefly presented.

  5. A Potential Transmitter Architecture for Future Generation Green Wireless Base Station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike Faulkner

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Current radio frequency power amplifiers in 3G base stations have very high power consumption leading to a hefty cost and negative environmental impact. In this paper, we propose a potential architecture design for future wireless base station. Issues associated with components of the architecture are investigated. The all-digital transmitter architecture uses a combination of envelope elimination and restoration (EER and pulse width modulation (PWM/pulse position modulation (PPM modulation. The performance of this architecture is predicted from the measured output power and efficiency curves of a GaN amplifier. 57% efficiency is obtained for an OFDM signal limited to 8 dB peak to average power ratio. The PWM/PPM drive signal is generated using the improved Cartesian sigma delta techniques. It is shown that an RF oversampling by a factor of four meets the WLAN spectral mask, and WCDMA specification is met by an RF oversampling of sixteen.

  6. A Potential Transmitter Architecture for Future Generation Green Wireless Base Station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cijvat Ellie

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Current radio frequency power amplifiers in 3G base stations have very high power consumption leading to a hefty cost and negative environmental impact. In this paper, we propose a potential architecture design for future wireless base station. Issues associated with components of the architecture are investigated. The all-digital transmitter architecture uses a combination of envelope elimination and restoration (EER and pulse width modulation (PWM/pulse position modulation (PPM modulation. The performance of this architecture is predicted from the measured output power and efficiency curves of a GaN amplifier. 57% efficiency is obtained for an OFDM signal limited to 8 dB peak to average power ratio. The PWM/PPM drive signal is generated using the improved Cartesian sigma delta techniques. It is shown that an RF oversampling by a factor of four meets the WLAN spectral mask, and WCDMA specification is met by an RF oversampling of sixteen.

  7. Ambient new particle formation parameter indicates potential rise in future events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Bonn

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric new particle formation is a general phenomenon observed over coniferous forests. So far nucleation is described as a function of gaseous sulfuric acid concentration only, which is unable to explain the observed seasonality of nucleation events at different measurement sites. Here we introduce a new nucleation parameter including ozone and water vapor concentrations as well as UV-B radiation as a proxy for OH radical formation. Applying this new parameter to field studies conducted at Finnish and German measurement sites it is found capable to predict the occurrence of nucleation events and their seasonal and annual variation indicating a significant role of organics. Extrapolation to possible future conditions of ozone, water vapor and organic concentrations leads to a significant potential increase in nucleation event number.

  8. Estimating the future ice sheet hydropower potential in Paakitsoq, Ilulissat, West Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahlstrøm, Andreas P.; Mottram, R.H.; Nielsen, C.

    2008-01-01

    long-term investment for an Arctic community of modest population. Here we present a new bedrock and surface map of the Paakitsoq/Swiss Camp part of the Greenland ice sheet and a prediction of the future discharge up to 2080 AD using regional climate model output, dynamic ice sheet modelling......Meltwater running off the Greenland ice sheet yield significant hydropower potentials in catchments bordering the ice sheet, especially in West and South Greenland. Hydropower has been chosen as the most desired source of energy by the Greenland Home Rule, but recent changes in the Greenland ice...... sheet has emphasized the risk of sudden changes in catchment supply. In this study, we present a thorough investigation of hydropower feasibility at the Paakitsoq basin, near Ilulissat in West Greenland. The catchment is completely dominated by the Greenland ice sheet which provides large quantities...

  9. Future Potential of Hybrid and Diesel Powertrains in the U.S. Light-duty Vehicle Market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, D.L.

    2004-08-23

    Diesel and hybrid technologies each have the potential to increase light-duty vehicle fuel economy by a third or more without loss of performance, yet these technologies have typically been excluded from technical assessments of fuel economy potential on the grounds that hybrids are too expensive and diesels cannot meet Tier 2 emissions standards. Recently, hybrid costs have come down and the few hybrid makes available are selling well. Diesels have made great strides in reducing particulate and nitrogen oxide emissions, and are likely though not certain to meet future standards. In light of these developments, this study takes a detailed look at the market potential of these two powertrain technologies and their possible impacts on light-duty vehicle fuel economy. A nested multinomial logit model of vehicle choice was calibrated to 2002 model year sales of 930 makes, models and engine-transmission configurations. Based on an assessment of the status and outlook for the two technologies, market shares were predicted for 2008, 2012 and beyond, assuming no additional increase in fuel economy standards or other new policy initiatives. Current tax incentives for hybrids are assumed to be phased out by 2008. Given announced and likely introductions by 2008, hybrids could capture 4-7% and diesels 2-4% of the light-duty market. Based on our best guesses for further introductions, these shares could increase to 10-15% for hybrids and 4-7% for diesels by 2012. The resulting impacts on fleet average fuel economy would be about +2% in 2008 and +4% in 2012. If diesels and hybrids were widely available across vehicle classes, makes, and models, they could capture 40% or more of the light-duty vehicle market.

  10. "Assessment of Potentially-Efficient DC-AC Converter Architectures"

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chapman, Jamie

    2004-04-29

    Two alternate and potentially-efficient power electronic architectures are assessed and compared with a conventional, three-phase, voltage-source converter. The comparisons are in terms of a 750 kVA converter as might be used with a variable-speed wind turbine or a photovoltaic array, The two architectures are projected to cost 1.15 and 1.39 times the comparable (factory) cost of the conventional system. However the present value of the recovered energy stream may justify the added cost.

  11. Modelization of the Current and Future Habitat Suitability of Rhododendron ferrugineum Using Potential Snow Accumulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Komac

    Full Text Available Mountain areas are particularly sensitive to climate change. Species distribution models predict important extinctions in these areas whose magnitude will depend on a number of different factors. Here we examine the possible impact of climate change on the Rhododendron ferrugineum (alpenrose niche in Andorra (Pyrenees. This species currently occupies 14.6 km2 of this country and relies on the protection afforded by snow cover in winter. We used high-resolution climatic data, potential snow accumulation and a combined forecasting method to obtain the realized niche model of this species. Subsequently, we used data from the high-resolution Scampei project climate change projection for the A2, A1B and B1 scenarios to model its future realized niche model. The modelization performed well when predicting the species's distribution, which improved when we considered the potential snow accumulation, the most important variable influencing its distribution. We thus obtained a potential extent of about 70.7 km(2 or 15.1% of the country. We observed an elevation lag distribution between the current and potential distribution of the species, probably due to its slow colonization rate and the small-scale survey of seedlings. Under the three climatic scenarios, the realized niche model of the species will be reduced by 37.9-70.1 km(2 by the end of the century and it will become confined to what are today screes and rocky hillside habitats. The particular effects of climate change on seedling establishment, as well as on the species' plasticity and sensitivity in the event of a reduction of the snow cover, could worsen these predictions.

  12. Seismic liquefaction potential assessment by using relevance vector machine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Pijush Samui

    2007-01-01

    Determining the liquefaction potential of soil is important in earthquake engineering.This study proposes the use of the Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) to determine the liquefaction potential of soil by using actual cone penetration test(CPT) data.RVM is based on a Bayesian formulation of a linear model with an appropriate prior that results in a sparse representation.The results are compared with a widely used artificial neural network(ANN) model.Overall,the RVM shows good performance and is proven to be more accurate than the ANN model.It also provides probabilistic output.The model provides a viable tool for earthquake engineers to assess seismic conditions for sites that are susceptible to liquefaction.

  13. Programmatic Assessment of Potential Induced Radioactivity in Electron Beam Sterilization of Healthcare Products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Mark; Logar, John; Montgomery, Alan; Vrain, Olivier

    2016-08-01

    ISO 11137-1:2006 Sterilization of Healthcare Products-Radiation requires that the potential for induced radioactivity be evaluated for medical devices irradiated with electrons with energy more than 10 MeV. For a manufacturing operation where new devices are being developed, a practical program for making such an evaluation should be engrained in the process, including the device design phase, where selection of materials can make a difference in the potential for activation to occur as a result of the irradiation process. The program, which is based on general assumptions as to the likely activation processes and generalized process assessments is being implemented in three phases: (1) incorporating materials consideration in the design phase, (2) evaluating potential activation empirically, including measurement at the point of irradiation, and (3) implementing routine procedures for the program, including developing a data base of results for consideration in future design efforts.

  14. Characterizing the Leaching Behavior of Coal Combustion Residues using the Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF) to Inform Future Management Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abstract for presentation on Characterizing the Leaching Behavior of Coal Combustion Residues using the Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF) to Inform Future Management Decisions. The abstract is attached.

  15. The potential distribution of bioenergy crops in the UK under present and future climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bellarby, Jessica; Smith, Pete (School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, 23 St Machar Drive, Aberdeen AB24 3UU (GB); Freie Universitaet Berlin, Institut fuer Meteorologie, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6-10, 12165 Berlin (DE)); Tuck, Gill; Glendining, Margaret J. (Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Herts AL5 2JQ (GB)); Wattenbach, Martin (School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, 23 St Machar Drive, Aberdeen (GB))

    2010-12-15

    We have predicted the potential distribution of 26 bioenergy crops in the UK, based on the simple model described by Tuck et al. The model has been applied at a 5 km resolution using the UKCIP02 model for scenarios at Low, Medium-Low, Medium-High and High emissions. In the analysis of the results the limitations for crop growth are assigned to elevation, temperature, high and low rainfall. Most of the crops currently grown are predicted to remain prevalent in the UK. A number of crops are suitable for introduction to the UK under a changing climate, whereas others retreat to northern parts of the UK. The greatest changes are expected in England. The simplicity of the model means that it has a relatively high uncertainty, with minor modifications to the model leading to quite different results. Nevertheless, it is well suited for identifying areas and crops that are most likely to be affected by the greatest changes. It has been noted that Miscanthus and Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) willow and poplar, which are currently regarded as highly suitable for UK conditions, may be less suited to southern areas in the future, where, for example, kenaf could have a greater potential. Further investigations are required to reduce uncertainty associated with the projections based on this simple model and to make conclusions more firmly. (author)

  16. Niche conservatism and the future potential range of Epipactis helleborine (Orchidaceae.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Kolanowska

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to evaluate the current distribution of suitable niches for the invasive orchid species, Epipactis helleborine, and to estimate the possibility of its further expansion. Moreover, niche modeling tools were used to explain its rapid expansion in North America and to test the niche conservatism of the species. The maximum entropy method was used to create models of the suitable niche distribution. A database of E. helleborine localities was prepared based on the examination of herbarium specimens, information from electronic databases as well as data gathered during field works. The differences between the niches occupied by native and invasive populations were evaluated using the niche overlap and niche identity test indexes. Moreover, the coverage of the most suitable habitats for the species was measured for three future scenarios as well as for the present time model. Populations of E. helleborine occupy North American west coast habitats very similar to those preferred by native, Eurasian populations, while the expansion in the east coast is related to the niche shift. The created models of suitable niche distribution indicate that the species does not realize its potential niche in the native range. The total surface of the habitats potentially available for E. helleborine will decrease in all climate change scenarios created for 2080.

  17. Current process and future path for health economic assessment of pharmaceuticals in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toumi, Mondher; Rémuzat, Cécile; El Hammi, Emna; Millier, Aurélie; Aballéa, Samuel; Chouaid, Christos; Falissard, Bruno

    2015-01-01

    The Social Security Funding Law for 2012 introduced the Economic and Public Health Assessment Committee (Commission Evaluation Economique et de Santé Publique, or CEESP) in the Social Security Code as a specialised committee affiliated with the Haute Autorité de Santé in charge of providing recommendations and health economic opinions. This article provides an in-depth description of the CEESP's structure and working methods, and analyses the impact of health economic assessment on market access of drugs in France. It also points out the areas of uncertainty and the conflicting rules following the introduction of the health economic assessment in France. The authors also provide their personal opinion on the likely future of health economic assessment of drugs in France, including the possible merge of the CEESP and the Transparency Committee, the implementation of a French threshold, and the extension of health economic assessment to a larger number of products.

  18. Development and validation of an instrument to assess future orientation and resilience in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Maggio, Ilaria; Ginevra, Maria Cristina; Nota, Laura; Soresi, Salvatore

    2016-08-01

    The study is aimed at providing the development and initial validation of the Design My Future (DMF), which may be administered in career counseling and research activities to assess adolescents' future orientation and resilience. Two studies with two independent samples of Italian adolescents were conducted to examine psychometric requisites of DMF. Specifically, in the first study, after developing items and examined the content validity, the factorial structure, reliability and discriminant validity of the DMF were tested. In the second study, the measurement invariance across gender, conducing a sequence of nested CFA models, was evaluated. Results showed good psychometric support for the instrument with Italian adolescents.

  19. Resource potential of bamboo, challenges and future directions towards sustainable management and utilization in Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Getachew Desalegn

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: Bamboo, the fastest growing and high yielding perennial plant of the world has more than 1500 species and 1500 versatile socio-economic uses and ecological services. Ethiopia has two indigenous bamboo species namely Yushania alpina and Oxytenantheria abyssinica, covering about one million ha with a wide distribution. The objective of this paper is to highlight the potential of bamboo resources, challenges including biodeterioration damage, opportunities and future research directions towards its sustainable management and rational utilization.Area of study: Bamboo resources of EthiopiaMaterial and Methods: Reconnaissance survey was done to some parts of the bamboo growing potential areas in Ethiopia besides the literature review. Main results: The bamboo resource, despite its socio-economic and environmental benefits, currently, in most areas has been under high pressure due to land use changes, bamboo mass- flowering, poor processing with low value addition, and damage by biodeteriorating agents (termites, beetles and fungi. The preservative tests on Ethiopian bamboos revealed low natural durability and highlighted the paramount importance of appropriate protection measures such as Tanalith and vehicles used motor oil to increase durability, service life and rational utilization of bamboo-based products and structures as potential alternative construction and furniture material.Research highlights: Therefore, integrated research and development interventions involving different propagation and managements techniques, harvesting season, processing, value addition including proper seasoning and preservation technologies and marketing are recommended to fill the information and technological gaps on sustainable management and rational utilization of this fast growing and multipurpose bamboo resources in Ethiopia.Key words: Bamboo; challenges; management; socio-economic and environmental significance; utilization.

  20. Predicting potential responses to future climate in an alpine ungulate: interspecific interactions exceed climate effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, Tom H E; Stephens, Philip A; Apollonio, Marco; Willis, Stephen G

    2014-12-01

    The altitudinal shifts of many montane populations are lagging behind climate change. Understanding habitual, daily behavioural rhythms, and their climatic and environmental influences, could shed light on the constraints on long-term upslope range-shifts. In addition, behavioural rhythms can be affected by interspecific interactions, which can ameliorate or exacerbate climate-driven effects on ecology. Here, we investigate the relative influences of ambient temperature and an interaction with domestic sheep (Ovis aries) on the altitude use and activity budgets of a mountain ungulate, the Alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra). Chamois moved upslope when it was hotter but this effect was modest compared to that of the presence of sheep, to which they reacted by moving 89-103 m upslope, into an entirely novel altitudinal range. Across the European Alps, a range-shift of this magnitude corresponds to a 46% decrease in the availability of suitable foraging habitat. This highlights the importance of understanding how factors such as competition and disturbance shape a given species' realised niche when predicting potential future responses to change. Furthermore, it exposes the potential for manipulations of species interactions to ameliorate the impacts of climate change, in this case by the careful management of livestock. Such manipulations could be particularly appropriate for species where competition or disturbance already strongly restricts their available niche. Our results also reveal the potential role of behavioural flexibility in responses to climate change. Chamois reduced their activity when it was warmer, which could explain their modest altitudinal migrations. Considering this behavioural flexibility, our model predicts a small 15-30 m upslope shift by 2100 in response to climate change, less than 4% of the altitudinal shift that would be predicted using a traditional species distribution model-type approach (SDM), which assumes that species' behaviour

  1. Regional differences in HIV prevalence among drug users in China: potential for future spread of HIV?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikolajczyk Rafael T

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Drug use and in particular injecting drug use has been at the forefront of the explosive spread of HIV in general populations in many countries in Asia. There is concern that also in China increased HIV incidence in drug users might spark off a generalized epidemic in the wider population. Close monitoring of HIV incidence and risk factors in drug users is therefore important to be able to target interventions effectively. Second generation surveillance was launched to assess HIV prevalence and risk behaviours jointly with the purpose of describing trends and predicting future developments. To assess whether these goals were fulfilled among drug users in China we provide an analysis of risk factors for HIV infection and of regional differences in HIV prevalence. Methods We analysed data collected in 2005 in 21 drug user second generation surveillance sentinel sites from 14 provinces in China. We used random effects logistic regression to test for risk factors for HIV infection and regional differences. Results The overall HIV-1 antibody prevalence was 5.4% (279/5128; 4.9% among injecting drug users (IDU not sharing needles and 3.7% among non-injecting drug users. We found substantial heterogeneity among the surveillance sites with prevalence rates ranging between 0% and 54%. HIV status was strongly affected by the regional prevalence of HIV. Risk behaviours were highly prevalent in regions where HIV prevalence is still low. The distribution of duration of drug use in different sites indicated different stages of the drug use epidemics. Conclusion ]Regional differences in HIV prevalence in China reflect different stages of the drug use and HIV epidemics rather than differences in risk behaviours. Therefore, outbreaks of HIV among drug users in regions where prevalence is still low can be expected in the future. However, methodological limitations of surveillance embedded into routine systems limit the usability of existing

  2. Territorial Innovative Potential in Behavioral Assessments of the Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandr Ivanovich Tatarkin

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the article, the essential and formalized definition of the potential of the territory is proved; its innovative part in the “subjectprocess-object” approach to its essential content and impact assessment is determined. The system of mechanisms and institutes of building the regional and territorial innovative potential is elaborated, the most productive directions of its using in the interests of spatial socio-economic development are allocated. Problems of high priority and requiring solutions that are able to increase the effectiveness of territory functioning are identified. The mentioned problems found their reflection and possible solutions at the Gaidar International Economic Forum in Moscow (2015 and at the representative XII Krasnoyarsk Economic Forum, as reflected by the analyses of some forum’s speeches presented in the paper. The shift of priorities in innovative global development during the second part of the 20th century and at the beginning of the 21st century is shown. The results of research and practice of utilizing innovative solutions for the development of some collectives and territories, the spatial structure of regions and the Russian Federation as a whole are investigated and generalized in this paper. The development of the territory and its potential depends on different factors, but the growth of knowledge, intellectual resource and involvement of the population into management process by development and realization of different programs and projects plays the increasing role in current conditions. In the article, the positive sides of the business-project as the main mechanism of the program and project implementation with utilizing market institutes of the public-private partnership (PPP are analyzed. The role of collectives and the population in the increase of innovative activity and system territory development is assessed.

  3. Assessing the wind energy potential projects in Algeria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Himri, Y. [Electricity and Gas National Enterprise (SONELGAZ) Bechar (Algeria); Laboratory Renewable Energy and Thermal, University of Bechar (Algeria); Himri, S. [University of Bechar, Department of Fundamental Sciences (Algeria); Boudghene Stambouli, A. [University of Sciences and Technology of Oran, Department of Electronic (Algeria)

    2009-10-15

    A research program is under way in the SONELGAZ R and D Office with the aim of studying the potential of wind energy in Algeria. This paper presents an analysis of recently collected hourly wind data over a period of almost 5 years between 2002 and 2006, from four selected sites as well as preliminary evaluation of the wind energy potential. The results showed that Tindouf and Dely Brahim sites have higher wind energy potential with annual wind speed average of 5.8 and 5.7 m/s respectively at height of 17 m above ground level (AGL). The two sites are candidates for remote area wind energy applications. The Ouled Fayet and Marsa Ben M'hidi sites wind speed data indicated that the two sites have lower annual wind speed averages between 3.9-4.7 m/s at 17 m AGL. That makes the two sites candidates for installation of windmills to provide water for drinking and small scale irrigation purposes Brief description of the equipment, is also performed. Finally the aim of this work is only a preliminary study in order to assess wind energy analysis in Algeria and give useful insights to engineers and experts dealing with wind energy. (author)

  4. Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks under future climate and land cover changes in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yigini, Yusuf; Panagos, Panos

    2016-07-01

    Soil organic carbon plays an important role in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems, variations in soil organic carbon stocks are very important for the ecosystem. In this study, a geostatistical model was used for predicting current and future soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe. The first phase of the study predicts current soil organic carbon content by using stepwise multiple linear regression and ordinary kriging and the second phase of the study projects the soil organic carbon to the near future (2050) by using a set of environmental predictors. We demonstrate here an approach to predict present and future soil organic carbon stocks by using climate, land cover, terrain and soil data and their projections. The covariates were selected for their role in the carbon cycle and their availability for the future model. The regression-kriging as a base model is predicting current SOC stocks in Europe by using a set of covariates and dense SOC measurements coming from LUCAS Soil Database. The base model delivers coefficients for each of the covariates to the future model. The overall model produced soil organic carbon maps which reflect the present and the future predictions (2050) based on climate and land cover projections. The data of the present climate conditions (long-term average (1950-2000)) and the future projections for 2050 were obtained from WorldClim data portal. The future climate projections are the recent climate projections mentioned in the Fifth Assessment IPCC report. These projections were extracted from the global climate models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest an overall increase in SOC stocks by 2050 in Europe (EU26) under all climate and land cover scenarios, but the extent of the increase varies between the climate model and emissions scenarios.

  5. Potential ecological risk assessment and predicting zinc accumulation in soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baran, Agnieszka; Wieczorek, Jerzy; Mazurek, Ryszard; Urbański, Krzysztof; Klimkowicz-Pawlas, Agnieszka

    2017-02-22

    The aims of this study were to investigate zinc content in the studied soils; evaluate the efficiency of geostatistics in presenting spatial variability of zinc in the soils; assess bioavailable forms of zinc in the soils and to assess soil-zinc binding ability; and to estimate the potential ecological risk of zinc in soils. The study was conducted in southern Poland, in the Malopolska Province. This area is characterized by a great diversity of geological structures and types of land use and intensity of industrial development. The zinc content was affected by soil factors, and the type of land use (arable lands, grasslands, forests, wastelands). A total of 320 soil samples were characterized in terms of physicochemical properties (texture, pH, organic C content, total and available Zn content). Based on the obtained data, assessment of the ecological risk of zinc was conducted using two methods: potential ecological risk index and hazard quotient. Total Zn content in the soils ranged from 8.27 to 7221 mg kg(-1) d.m. Based on the surface semivariograms, the highest variability of zinc in the soils was observed from northwest to southeast. The point sources of Zn contamination were located in the northwestern part of the area, near the mining-metallurgical activity involving processing of zinc and lead ores. These findings were confirmed by the arrangement of semivariogram surfaces and bivariate Moran's correlation coefficients. The content of bioavailable forms of zinc was between 0.05 and 46.19 mg kg(-1) d.m. (0.01 mol dm(-3) CaCl2), and between 0.03 and 71.54 mg kg(-1) d.m. (1 mol dm(-3) NH4NO3). Forest soils had the highest zinc solubility, followed by arable land, grassland and wasteland. PCA showed that organic C was the key factor to control bioavailability of zinc in the soils. The extreme, very high and medium zinc accumulation was found in 69% of studied soils. There is no ecological risk of zinc to living organisms in the study area, and in 90

  6. Preliminary assessment of potential CDM early start projects in Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyers, S.; Sathaye, J.; Lehman, B.; Schumacher, K.; van Vliet, O.; Moreira, J.R.

    2000-11-01

    The Brazil/US Aspen Global Forum on Climate Change Policies and Programs has facilitated a dialogue between key Brazil and US public and private sector leaders on the subject of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). With support from the US government, a cooperative effort between Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the University of Sao Paulo conducted an assessment of a number of projects put forth by Brazilian sponsors. Initially, we gathered information and conducted a screening assessment for ten projects in the energy sector and six projects in the forestry sector. Some of the projects appeared to offer greater potential to be attractive for CDM, or had better information available. We then conducted a more detailed assessment of 12 of these projects, and two other projects that were submitted after the initial screening. An important goal was to assess the potential impact of Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) on the financial performance of projects. With the exception of the two forestry-based fuel displacement projects, the impact of CERs on the internal rate of return (IRR) is fairly small. This is true for both the projects that displace grid electricity and those that displace local (diesel-based) electricity production. The relative effect of CERs is greater for projects whose IRR without CERs is low. CERs have a substantial effect on the IRR of the two short-rotation forestry energy substitution projects. One reason is that the biofuel displaces coke and oil, both of which are carbon-intensive. Another factor is that the product of these projects (charcoal and woodfuel, respectively) is relatively low value, so the revenue from carbon credits has a strong relative impact. CERs also have a substantial effect on the NPV of the carbon sequestration projects. Financial and other barriers pose a challenge for implementation of most of the projects. In most cases, the sponsor lacks sufficient capital, and loans are available only at high interest

  7. Regional assessment of the hydropower potential of rivers in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kling, Harald; Stanzel, Philipp; Fuchs, Martin

    2016-04-01

    The 15 countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) face a constant shortage of energy supply, which limits sustained economic growth. Currently there are about 50 operational hydropower plants and about 40 more are under construction or refurbishment. The potential for future hydropower development - especially for small-scale plants in rural areas - is assumed to be large, but exact data are missing. This study supports the energy initiatives of the "ECOWAS Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency" (ECREEE) by assessing the hydropower potential of all rivers in West Africa. For more than 500,000 river reaches the hydropower potential was computed from channel slope and mean annual discharge. In large areas there is a lack of discharge observations. Therefore, an annual water balance model was used to simulate discharge. The model domain covers 5 Mio km², including e.g. the Niger, Volta, and Senegal River basins. The model was calibrated with observed data of 410 gauges, using precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data as inputs. Historic variations of observed annual discharge between 1950 and 2010 are simulated well by the model. As hydropower plants are investments with a lifetime of several decades we also assessed possible changes in future discharge due to climate change. To this end the water balance model was driven with bias-corrected climate projections of 15 Regional Climate Models for two emission scenarios of the CORDEX-Africa ensemble. The simulation results for the river network were up-scaled to sub-areas and national summaries. This information gives a regional quantification of the hydropower potential, expected climate change impacts, as well as a regional classification for general suitability (or non-suitability) of hydropower plant size - from small-scale to large projects.

  8. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faber, Irene R; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T; Faber, Niels R; Oosterveld, Frits G J; Nijhuis-Van der Sanden, Maria W G

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be included in a talent

  9. Proprioception: where are we now? A commentary on clinical assessment, changes across the life course, functional implications and future interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suetterlin, Karen Joan; Sayer, Avan Aihie

    2014-05-01

    Proprioception, the sense of where one is in space, is essential for effective interaction with the environment. A lack of or reduction in proprioceptive acuity has been directly correlated with falls and with reduced functional independence in older people. Proprioceptive losses have also been shown to negatively correlate with functional recovery post stroke and play a significant role in other conditions such as Parkinson's disease. However, despite its central importance to many geriatric syndromes, the clinical assessment of proprioception has remained remarkably static. We look at approaches to the clinical assessment of proprioception, changes in proprioception across the life course, functional implications of proprioception in health and disease and the potential for targeted interventions in the future such as joint taping, and proprioception-specific rehabilitation and footwear.

  10. Evaluating the Potential of NASA's Earth Science Research Results for Improving Future Operational Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederick, M. E.; Cox, E. L.; Friedl, L. A.

    2006-12-01

    evaluation of many and varied NASA research results for their potential to be candidates for further development as an ISS project. The intention is to seed the community with many creative ideas for projects that use "un-applied" NASA research results to serve society, such as simulations of future missions.

  11. Occupational health impacts of climate change: current and future ISO standards for the assessment of heat stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Ken

    2013-01-01

    The current system of International Standards (ISO) is assessed to consider whether standards are fit for purpose for the future in the context of climate change. ISO 7243, ISO 7933 and ISO 9886 provide the current ISO system for the assessment of heat stress. These involve a simple monitoring index, an analytical approach and physiological monitoring, respectively. The system relies on accurate measurement of the thermal conditions experienced by the worker (ISO 7726); and estimations of metabolic heat production due to work (ISO 8996) and the thermal properties of clothing (ISO 9920). As well as standards for heat stress assessment, the full range of ISO standards and the physical environment is listed as well as current work and proposed standards. A particular 'gap' in anticipating requirements for ISO standards in the future is the link between meteorological data and ISO standards. This is important for predicting the global consequences of a changing climate and anticipating potential impacts on occupational health across countries and cultures.

  12. Clinical reasoning assessment through medical expertise theories: past, present and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boushehri, Elham; Soltani Arabshahi, Kamran; Monajemi, Alireza

    2015-01-01

    Exploration into the concept of "medical expert" dates back to more than 50 years ago, yet yielding three leading theories in the area of clinical reasoning, namely, knowledge structure, hypotheticdeductive, and dual process. Each theory defines "medical expert" in a dissimilar way. Therefore, the methods of assessment through which the experts are identified have been changed during the time. In this paper, we tried to categorize and introduce some widely used tests for identification of experts within the framework of existing main theories. Implementation of the proposed categorization for providing future assessment tools is discussed.

  13. Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Can

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moren, Lena

    2006-10-15

    This report documents the future human actions (FHA) considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Can. The purpose of this report is to provide an account of: General considerations concerning FHA; The methodology applied in SR-Can to assess FHA; The aspects of FHA that need to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository; and The selection of representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis.

  14. Anesthetic gases and global warming: Potentials, prevention and future of anesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadani, Hina; Vyas, Arun

    2011-01-01

    Global warming refers to an average increase in the earth's temperature, which in turn causes changes in climate. A warmer earth may lead to changes in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea level, and a wide range of impacts on plants, wildlife, and humans. Greenhouse gases make the earth warmer by trapping energy inside the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases are any gas that absorbs infrared radiation in the atmosphere and include: water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), halogenated fluorocarbons (HCFCs), ozone (O3), perfluorinated carbons (PFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Hazardous chemicals enter the air we breathe as a result of dozens of activities carried out during a typical day at a healthcare facility like processing lab samples, burning fossil fuels etc. We sometimes forget that anesthetic agents are also greenhouse gases (GHGs). Anesthetic agents used today are volatile halogenated ethers and the common carrier gas nitrous oxide known to be aggressive GHGs. With less than 5% of the total delivered halogenated anesthetic being metabolized by the patient, the vast majority of the anesthetic is routinely vented to the atmosphere through the operating room scavenging system. The global warming potential (GWP) of a halogenated anesthetic is up to 2,000 times greater than CO2. Global warming potentials are used to compare the strength of different GHGs to trap heat in the atmosphere relative to that of CO2. Here we discuss about the GWP of anesthetic gases, preventive measures to decrease the global warming effects of anesthetic gases and Xenon, a newer anesthetic gas for the future of anesthesia.

  15. Climatic driven variability of surface water energy potential and implications for future hydroelectricity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worman, A. L. E.; Lindstrom, G.

    2014-12-01

    An average year the production in Norway and Sweden is around 190 TWh and these two countries stand for about 70% of the hydropower energy stored in the available reservoirs of Europe. There are large challenges for the future use of this regulatory capacity with regard to balancing the electricity production in Europe under climate variability, compliance to water management plans under the Water Framework Directive and to the shifts to more renewable, but intermittent, energy sources required by the Renewable Energy Directive. A main aim of this project is to describe the variation over time of hydrological fluxes across Scandinavia in terms of their energy properties and to link that information to climatic factors and the regulation of hydroelectricty. Along these lines we explored daily data of digitalized hydro-climatological data from 1961, which were used to calibrate the HBV-model for 1001 watersheds in Sweden and the energy potential has been estimated as an average for that period (Figure below). These tentative results show that the surface water energy potential constitutes about one per mille of the latent heat flux due to evapotranspiration and it is, therefore, very sensitive to any fluctuation in the energy quantities of the hydrometeorological system. Tentative analysis suggests that the energy availability of surface water in Sweden exhibits significant decadal long fluctuations from 115 TWh/year up to 180 TWh/year, which follow several different time scales and periodicities, ranging from century-long trends to fluctuations occurring on time scales of a decade and shorter. In addition, recent investigations show that land-use changes and hydropower regulation has caused significant changes in the annual runoff periodicity in Swedish rivers during the 20th century. Those changes in the annual periodicities are caused by structural alterations in river basins affected by intense agriculture and hydropower regulation.

  16. Floating Offshore Wind in Oregon: Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts from Two Future Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jimenez, Tony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tegen, Suzanne [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Speer, Bethany [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-05-01

    Construction of the first offshore wind power plant in the United States began in 2015, off the coast of Rhode Island, using fixed platform structures that are appropriate for shallow seafloors, like those located off of the East Coast and mid-Atlantic. However, floating platforms, which have yet to be deployed commercially, will likely need to anchor to the deeper seafloor if deployed off of the West Coast. To analyze the employment and economic potential for floating offshore wind along the West Coast, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to analyze two hypothetical, large-scale deployment scenarios for Oregon: 5,500 megawatts (MW) of offshore wind deployment in Oregon by 2050 (Scenario A), and 2,900 MW of offshore wind by 2050 (Scenario B). These levels of deployment could power approximately 1,600,000 homes (Scenario A) or 870,000 homes (Scenario B). Offshore wind would contribute to economic development in Oregon in the near future, and more substantially in the long term, especially if equipment and labor are sourced from within the state. According to the analysis, over the 2020-2050 period, Oregon floating offshore wind facilities could support 65,000-97,000 job-years and add $6.8 billion-$9.9 billion to the state GDP (Scenario A).

  17. The 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Lourenço

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Dengue, a vector-borne viral disease of increasing global importance, is classically associated with tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Urbanisation, globalisation and climate trends, however, are facilitating the geographic spread of its mosquito vectors, thereby increasing the risk of the virus establishing itself in previously unaffected areas and causing large-scale epidemics. On 3 October 2012, two autochthonous dengue infections were reported within the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal. During the following seven months, this first 'European' dengue outbreak caused more than 2000 local cases and 81 exported cases to mainland Europe. Here, using an ento-epidemiological mathematical framework, we estimate that the introduction of dengue to Madeira occurred around a month before the first official cases, during the period of maximum influx of airline travel, and that the naturally declining temperatures of autumn were the determining factor for the outbreak's demise in early December 2012. Using key estimates, together with local climate data, we further propose that there is little support for dengue endemicity on this island, but a high potential for future epidemic outbreaks when seeded between May and August-a period when detection of imported cases is crucial for Madeira's public health planning.

  18. The 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lourenço, José; Recker, Mario

    2014-08-01

    Dengue, a vector-borne viral disease of increasing global importance, is classically associated with tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Urbanisation, globalisation and climate trends, however, are facilitating the geographic spread of its mosquito vectors, thereby increasing the risk of the virus establishing itself in previously unaffected areas and causing large-scale epidemics. On 3 October 2012, two autochthonous dengue infections were reported within the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal. During the following seven months, this first 'European' dengue outbreak caused more than 2000 local cases and 81 exported cases to mainland Europe. Here, using an ento-epidemiological mathematical framework, we estimate that the introduction of dengue to Madeira occurred around a month before the first official cases, during the period of maximum influx of airline travel, and that the naturally declining temperatures of autumn were the determining factor for the outbreak's demise in early December 2012. Using key estimates, together with local climate data, we further propose that there is little support for dengue endemicity on this island, but a high potential for future epidemic outbreaks when seeded between May and August-a period when detection of imported cases is crucial for Madeira's public health planning.

  19. Current Status and Future Potential of Energy Derived from Chinese Agricultural Land: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ningning Zhai

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Energy crisis is receiving attention with regard to the global economy and environmental sustainable development. Developing new energy resources to optimize the energy supply structure has become an important measure to prevent energy shortage as well as achieving energy conservation and emission reduction in China. This study proposed the concept of energy agriculture and constructed an energy agricultural technical support system based on the analysis of energy supply and demand and China’s foreign dependence on energy resources, combined with the function of agriculture in the energy field. Manufacturing technology equipment and agricultural and forestry energy, including crop or forestry plants and animal feces, were used in the system. The current status and future potential of China’s marginal land resources, energy crop germplasm resources, and agricultural and forestry waste energy-oriented resources were analyzed. Developing the function of traditional agriculture in food production may promote China’s social, economic, and environmental sustainable development and achieve energy saving and emission reduction.

  20. Posttraumatic elbow joint contractures: defining pathologic capsular mechanisms and potential future treatment paradigms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrand, Kevin A

    2013-11-01

    The Andrew J. Weiland Medal is presented by the American Society for Surgery of the Hand to a midcareer researcher who is dedicated to advancing patient care in the field of hand surgery. This essay, awarded the Weiland Medal in 2012, focuses on posttraumatic elbow joint contractures. Joint contractures are well known to hand surgeons because they limit function of our patients. There is a thorough understanding of the pathoanatomy underlying joint contractures. However, the mechanisms leading to the pathoanatomy are either unknown or partially understood, depending on the etiology of the particular clinical condition. This review describes our research over the past 14 years on posttraumatic elbow joint contractures. It defines pathologic cellular, matrix, and growth factor changes in the joint capsule, elaborates on the development of an animal model of posttraumatic joint contractures, presents an evaluation of a potential prevention strategy based on our research, and outlines future plans to bring this work to the clinical realm for the benefit of patients.

  1. Geologic evolution of the Jemez Mountains and their potential for future volcanic activity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burton, B.W.

    1982-01-01

    Geophysical and geochemical data and the geologic history of the Rio Grande rift and the vicinity of the Jemez Mountains are summarized to determine the probability of future volcanic activity in the Los Alamos, New Mexico area. The apparent cyclic nature of volcanism in the Jemez Mountains may be related to intermittent thermal inputs into the volcanic system beneath the region. The Jemez lineament, an alignment of late Cenozoic volcanic centers that crosses the rift near Los Alamos, has played an important role in the volcanic evolution of the Jemez Mountains. Geophysical data suggest that there is no active shallow magma body beneath the Valles caldera, though magma probably exists at about 15 km beneath this portion of the rift. The rate of volcanism in the Jemez Mountains during the last 10 million years has been 5 x 10/sup -9//km/sup 2//y. Lava or ash flows overriding Laboratory radioactive waste disposal sites would have little potential to release radionuclides to the environment. The probability of a new volcano intruding close enough to a radioactive waste disposal site to effect radionuclide release is 2 x 10/sup -7//y.

  2. The Future Potential of Brazilian Sugarcane Ethanol with respect to Land Availability and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, D.; Miguez, F.; Bollero, G.; Long, S.

    2014-12-01

    Expanding sugarcane production on the 65.9 mha area identified by Brazilian government can provide a sustainable and low carbon intensive supply of liquid fuel to the world. However, such expansion is also subject to long-term climate changes. Variation in sugarcane yield at policy-relevant spatial and temporal scales can greatly influence the long-term potential of Brazilian. A process-based crop model (BioCro) is parameterized and calibrated for leaf photosynthesis and field productivity. Multi-site validation against observed stem yield of sugarcane cultivar RB72454 suggests that model can predict consistent yield (observed = 0.92 × predicted; R2 = 0.65) over a wide range of soil and environmental conditions in Brazil. Regional simulations based on national soil data and reanalysis climate data suggest that 1.938 petagram (Pg) of stem dry biomass can be harvested annually. Increasing temperature and [CO2] can partially compensate for yield decline due to reduced rainfall in future, by means of greater water use efficiency and rate of photosynthesis. Simulations using five GCMs climate data suggest that average productivity of harvested stem dry biomass may decline from 1.938 Pg year-1 to 1.544 Pg year-1 (1.243-2.066 Pg year-1) by 2045 in the absence of improved cultivars.

  3. Cost outlook for the production of biofuels. A cost comparison assessment of the future production of biofuels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ragettli, M.

    2007-02-15

    In this diploma thesis by Martin Ragettli a cost comparison assessment of the future production of biofuels is presented. The author states that biofuels can make a contribution to the reduction of the effects of fossil fuel depletion and regional and global environmental problems, as well as providing security of supply. The status of biofuels in the context of sustainability efforts and the use of renewable forms of energy are discussed as are the potential and costs of biomass-based energy supply. Various types of biomass for the production of biofuels are reviewed, as are production technologies. The global potential of biomass supplies is examined. The methodology applied and the system components examined are discussed and a regional approach is reviewed. Recommendations for further research are made.

  4. MEDIA ENVIRONMENT AS FACTOR OF REALIZATION OF CREATIVE POTENTIAL OF FUTURE TEACHERS` IN THE MOUNTAIN SCHOOLS OF THE UKRAINIAN CARPATHIANS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alla Lebedieva

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The article shows up “media environment” as a factor of future teachers` creative potential realization in the mountainous schools of the Ukrainian Carpathians. The problem of using media environment as a factor of future teachers` creative potential in the mountainous schools of the Ukrainian Carpathians and the ways of its optimization is the main point of this research. Highlights ways to modernize social and professional orientation training of students in the creative process of nature is situates in information education and educational environment of high school. We consider the causal link use media environment as a factor of future teachers` creative potential and complexity of the teacher in the mountainous schools of the Ukrainian Carpathians. The basic function of the media environment are extensity, instrumental, communicative, interactive, multimedia. Reveals some aspects of training students to creatively active teaching process we describe subjects with objective possibilities in the formation of professional skills of future teachers` and which directly affect the realization of creative potential – “Ukrainian folk art”, “Basic recitation and rhetoric”, “The basis of pedagogical creativity”. The necessity of creating a full-fledged media environment in higher education is important condition of successful education as an important factor that allows the efficiency of the creative potential of future teachers` in the mountainous schools of the Ukrainian Carpathians.

  5. Assessing the standard Molybdenum projector augmented wave VASP potentials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mattsson, Ann E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Multi-Scale Science

    2014-07-01

    Density Functional Theory (DFT) based Equation of State (EOS) construction is a prominent part of Sandia’s capabilities to support engineering sciences. This capability is based on augmenting experimental data with information gained from computational investigations, especially in those parts of the phase space where experimental data is hard, dangerous, or expensive to obtain. A key part of the success of the Sandia approach is the fundamental science work supporting the computational capability. Not only does this work enhance the capability to perform highly accurate calculations but it also provides crucial insight into the limitations of the computational tools, providing high confidence in the results even where results cannot be, or have not yet been, validated by experimental data. This report concerns the key ingredient of projector augmented-wave (PAW) potentials for use in pseudo-potential computational codes. Using the tools discussed in SAND2012-7389 we assess the standard Vienna Ab-initio Simulation Package (VASP) PAWs for Molybdenum.

  6. Flood Risk Analysis and Flood Potential Losses Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    The heavy floods in the Taihu Basin showed increasing trend in recent years. In thiswork, a typical area in the northern Taihu Basin was selected for flood risk analysis and potentialflood losses assessment. Human activities have strong impact on the study area' s flood situation (asaffected by the polders built, deforestation, population increase, urbanization, etc. ), and havemade water level higher, flood duration shorter, and flood peaks sharper. Five years of differentflood return periods [(1970), 5 (1962), 10 (1987), 20 (1954), 50 (1991)] were used to cal-culate the potential flood risk area and its losses. The potential flood risk map, economic losses,and flood-impacted population were also calculated. The study's main conclusions are: 1 ) Humanactivities have strongly changed the natural flood situation in the study area, increasing runoff andflooding; 2) The flood risk area is closely related with the precipitation center; 3) Polder construc-tion has successfully protected land from flood, shortened the flood duration, and elevated waterlevel in rivers outside the polders; 4) Economic and social development have caused flood losses toincrease in recent years.

  7. Threat Assessment of Potential Terrorist Attacks to the Transport Infrastructure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Nowacki

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents threat assessment of potential terrorist attacks to the transport infrastructure. The range of transportation infrastructure has spread and includes railway, inland waterways, road, maritime, air, intermodal transport infrastructure and intelligent transport systems (ITS. ITS service is the provision of an ITS application through a well-defined organisational and operational framework with the aim of contributing to the user safety, efficiency, comfort and/or to facilitate or support transport and travel operations. Terrorism means acts of violence committed by groups that view themselves as victimized by some notable historical wrong. Although these groups have no formal connection with governments, they usually have the financial and moral backing of sympathetic governments. Typically, they stage unexpected attacks on civilian targets, including transport infrastructure, with the aim of sowing fear and confusion. Based on the analyses, transportation infrastructure is potentially threatened with terrorism attacks, especially road and rail infrastructure (about 23 %, and to a smaller degree the maritime and air transport infrastructure (about 2 %. There were 90,3% of incidents involve land transport (74,5% – vehicles, 9,5% – buses, 6,3% - rail covered the 41-year period 1967-2007 in the USA. Legal steps to fight terrorism have been taken on the international level, furthermore, some institutions have been established for this purpose.

  8. Potential of 3D City Models to assess flood vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröter, Kai; Bochow, Mathias; Schüttig, Martin; Nagel, Claus; Ross, Lutz; Kreibich, Heidi

    2016-04-01

    Vulnerability, as the product of exposure and susceptibility, is a key factor of the flood risk equation. Furthermore, the estimation of flood loss is very sensitive to the choice of the vulnerability model. Still, in contrast to elaborate hazard simulations, vulnerability is often considered in a simplified manner concerning the spatial resolution and geo-location of exposed objects as well as the susceptibility of these objects at risk. Usually, area specific potential flood loss is quantified on the level of aggregated land-use classes, and both hazard intensity and resistance characteristics of affected objects are represented in highly simplified terms. We investigate the potential of 3D City Models and spatial features derived from remote sensing data to improve the differentiation of vulnerability in flood risk assessment. 3D City Models are based on CityGML, an application scheme of the Geography Markup Language (GML), which represents the 3D geometry, 3D topology, semantics and appearance of objects on different levels of detail. As such, 3D City Models offer detailed spatial information which is useful to describe the exposure and to characterize the susceptibility of residential buildings at risk. This information is further consolidated with spatial features of the building stock derived from remote sensing data. Using this database a spatially detailed flood vulnerability model is developed by means of data-mining. Empirical flood damage data are used to derive and to validate flood susceptibility models for individual objects. We present first results from a prototype application in the city of Dresden, Germany. The vulnerability modeling based on 3D City Models and remote sensing data is compared i) to the generally accepted good engineering practice based on area specific loss potential and ii) to a highly detailed representation of flood vulnerability based on a building typology using urban structure types. Comparisons are drawn in terms of

  9. Risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. Current approaches and future strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Larsen, John Christian; Meyer, Otto A.

    2010-01-01

    The risk assessment of pesticide residues in food is based on toxicological evaluation of the single compounds and no internationally accepted procedure exists for evaluation of cumulative exposure to multiple residues of pesticides in crops, except for a few groups of pesticides sharing a group...... several approaches are available for the risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. However, no single simple approach is available to judge upon potential interactions at the low doses that humans are exposed to from pesticide residues in food. In these cases, PBTK models could be useful as tools...... to assess combined tissue doses and to help predict potential interactions including thresholds for such effects. This would improve the quality of the risk assessment....

  10. Evaluating potentials for future generation off-shore wind-power outside Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benestad, R. E.; Haugen, J.; Haakenstad, H.

    2012-12-01

    With todays critical need of renewable energy sources, it is naturally to look towards wind power. With the long coast of Norway, there is a large potential for wind farms offshore Norway. Although there are more challenges with offshore wind energy installations compared to wind farms on land, the offshore wind is generally higher, and there is also higher persistence of wind speed values in the power generating classes. I planning offshore wind farms, there is a need of evaluation of the wind resources, the wind climatology and possible future changes. In this aspect, we use data from regional climate model runs performed in the European ENSEMBLE-project (van der Linden and J.F.B. Mitchell, 2009). In spite of increased reliability in RCMs in the recent years, the simulations still suffer from systematic model errors, therefore the data has to be corrected before using them in wind resource analyses. In correcting the wind speeds from the RCMs, we will use wind speeds from a Norwegian high resolution wind- and wave- archive, NORA10 (Reistad et al 2010), to do quantile mapping (Themeβl et. al. 2012). The quantile mapping is performed individually for each regional simulation driven by ERA40-reanalysis from the ENSEMBLE-project corrected against NORA10. The same calibration is then used to the belonging regional climate scenario. The calibration is done for each grid cell in the domain and for each day of the year centered in a +/-15 day window to make an empirical cumulative density function for each day of the year. The quantile mapping of the scenarios provide us with a new wind speed data set for the future, more correct compared to the raw ENSEMBLE scenarios. References: Reistad M., Ø. Breivik, H. Haakenstad, O. J. Aarnes, B. R. Furevik and J-R Bidlo, 2010, A high-resolution hindcast of wind and waves for The North Sea, The Norwegian Sea and The Barents Sea. J. Geophys. Res., 116. doi:10.1029/2010JC006402. Themessl M. J., A. Gobiet and A. Leuprecht, 2012

  11. Critical thinking: assessing the risks to the future security of supply of critical metals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunn, Gus

    2015-04-01

    Increasing world population, the spread of prosperity across the globe and the demands of new technologies have led to a revival of concerns about the availability of raw materials needed by society. Despite scare stories about resource depletion, physical exhaustion of minerals is considered to be unlikely. However, we do need to know which materials might be of concern so that we can develop strategies to secure adequate supplies and to mitigate the effects of supply disruption. This requirement has led to renewed interest in criticality, a term that is generally used to refer to metals and minerals of high economic importance that have a relatively high likelihood of supply disruption. The European Union (EU) developed a quantitative methodology for the assessment of criticality which led to the definition of 14 raw materials as critical to the EU economy (EC, 2010). This has succeeded in raising awareness of potential supply issues and in helping to prioritise requirements for new policies and supporting research. The EU has recently assessed a larger number of candidate materials of which 20 are now identified as critical to the EU (EC, 2014). These include metals such as indium, mostly used in flat-screen displays, antimony for flame retardants and cobalt for rechargeable batteries, alloys and a host of other products. Although there is no consensus on the methodology for criticality assessments and broad analyses at this scale are inevitably imperfect, they can, nevertheless, provide early warning of supply problems. However, in order to develop more rigorous and dynamic assessments of future availability detailed analysis of the whole life-cycle of individual metals to identify specific problems and develop appropriate solutions is required. New policies, such as the Raw Materials Initiative (2008) and the European Innovation Partnership on Raw Materials (2013), have been developed by the European Commission (EC) and are aimed at securing sustainable

  12. Evaluating Cloud and Precipitation Processes in Numerical Models using Current and Potential Future Satellite Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Heever, S. C.; Tao, W. K.; Skofronick Jackson, G.; Tanelli, S.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Petersen, W. A.; Kummerow, C. D.

    2015-12-01

    Cloud, aerosol and precipitation processes play a fundamental role in the water and energy cycle. It is critical to accurately represent these microphysical processes in numerical models if we are to better predict cloud and precipitation properties on weather through climate timescales. Much has been learned about cloud properties and precipitation characteristics from NASA satellite missions such as TRMM, CloudSat, and more recently GPM. Furthermore, data from these missions have been successfully utilized in evaluating the microphysical schemes in cloud-resolving models (CRMs) and global models. However, there are still many uncertainties associated with these microphysics schemes. These uncertainties can be attributed, at least in part, to the fact that microphysical processes cannot be directly observed or measured, but instead have to be inferred from those cloud properties that can be measured. Evaluation of microphysical parameterizations are becoming increasingly important as enhanced computational capabilities are facilitating the use of more sophisticated schemes in CRMs, and as future global models are being run on what has traditionally been regarded as cloud-resolving scales using CRM microphysical schemes. In this talk we will demonstrate how TRMM, CloudSat and GPM data have been used to evaluate different aspects of current CRM microphysical schemes, providing examples of where these approaches have been successful. We will also highlight CRM microphysical processes that have not been well evaluated and suggest approaches for addressing such issues. Finally, we will introduce a potential NASA satellite mission, the Cloud and Precipitation Processes Mission (CAPPM), which would facilitate the development and evaluation of different microphysical-dynamical feedbacks in numerical models.

  13. Potential future impact of a partially effective HIV vaccine in a southern African setting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew N Phillips

    Full Text Available It is important for public health and within the HIV vaccine development field to understand the potential population level impact of an HIV vaccine of partial efficacy--both in preventing infection and in reducing viral load in vaccinated individuals who become infected--in the context of a realistic future implementation scenario in resource limited settings.An individual level model of HIV transmission, progression and the effect of antiretroviral therapy was used to predict the outcome to 2060 of introduction in 2025 of a partially effective vaccine with various combinations of efficacy characteristics, in the context of continued ART roll-out in southern Africa.In the context of our base case epidemic (in 2015 HIV prevalence 28% and incidence 1.7 per 100 person years, a vaccine with only 30% preventative efficacy could make a substantial difference in the rate with which HIV incidence declines; the impact on incidence in relative terms is projected to increase over time, with a projected 67% lower HIV incidence in 2060 compared with no vaccine introduction. The projected mean decline in the general adult population death rate 2040-2060 is 11%. A vaccine with no prevention efficacy but which reduces viral load by 1 log is predicted to result in a modest (14% reduction in HIV incidence and an 8% reduction in death rate in the general adult population (mean 2040-2060. These effects were broadly similar in multivariable uncertainty analysis.Introduction of a partially effective preventive HIV vaccine would make a substantial long-term impact on HIV epidemics in southern Africa, in addition to the effects of ART. Development of an HIV vaccine, even of relatively low apparent efficacy at the individual level, remains a critical global public health goal.

  14. Blueprints for the assessment, treatment, and future study of catatonia in autism spectrum disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhossche, Dirk Marcel; Shah, Amitta; Wing, Lorna

    2006-01-01

    The blueprints for the assessment, treatment, and future study of catatonia in autism spectrum disorders (ASDs), which are submitted in this chapter aim to increase early recognition and treatment of catatonia in ASDs, show the urgency of controlled treatment trials, and increase collaborative and interdisciplinary research into the co-occurrence of these two enigmatic disorders. Catatonia should be assessed in any patient with ASDs when there is an obvious and marked deterioration in movement, pattern of activities, self-care, and practical skills, compared with previous levels, through a comprehensive diagnostic evaluation of medical and psychiatric symptoms. A formal diagnosis should be ascertained using ASD specific criteria for catatonia that takes into account baseline symptoms like muteness, echophenomena, stereotypy, negativism, or other psychomotor abnormalities. Any underlying medical and neurological conditions should be treated, and culprit medications or other substances that may cause catatonia should be eliminated. Separate treatment blueprints are presented for mild, moderate, and severe catatonia, featuring combinations of a psychological approach developed by Shah and Wing and medical treatments that have shown efficacy in catatonia: lorazepam challenge, lorazepam trial, lorazepam continuation, and bilateral electroconvulsive therapy (ECT). These treatment modalities in themselves are well established. Side effects and complications are known and manageable. Legal, ethical, and practice guidelines governing all treatment aspects should be followed. The treatment blueprints should be viewed as best estimates pending future controlled studies. The blueprint for the future study of catatonia in ASDs describes promising clinical and preclinical research avenues. Longitudinal studies need to assess the possible effect of early recognition and adequate treatment of catatonia in ASDs in order to avoid the impairment associated with chronicity. Effects of

  15. Coastal Change Potential (CPI) Assessment of Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore (slbe_shore)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A coastal change potential index (CPI) was used to map the relative change potential of the coast to future lake-level change within Sleeping Bear Dunes National...

  16. Coastal Change Potential (CPI) Assessment of Apostle Islands National Lakeshore (apis_shore)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A coastal change potential index (CPI) was used to map the relative change potential of the coast to future lake-level change within Apostle Islands National...

  17. Neural correlates of self-appraisals in the near and distant future: an event-related potential study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Yangmei; Jackson, Todd; Wang, Xiaogang; Huang, Xiting

    2013-01-01

    To investigate perceptual and neural correlates of future self-appraisals as a function of temporal distance, event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded while participants (11 women, eight men) made judgments about the applicability of trait adjectives to their near future selves (i.e., one month from now) and their distant future selves (i.e., three years from now). Behavioral results indicated people used fewer positive adjectives, more negative adjectives, recalled more specific events coming to mind and felt more psychologically connected to the near future self than the distant future self. Electrophysiological results demonstrated that negative trait adjectives elicited more positive ERP deflections than did positive trait adjectives in the interval between 550 and 800 ms (late positive component) within the near future self condition. However, within the same interval, there were no significant differences between negative and positive traits adjectives in the distant future self condition. The results suggest that negative emotional processing in future self-appraisals is modulated by temporal distance, consistent with predictions of construal level theory.

  18. Neural correlates of self-appraisals in the near and distant future: an event-related potential study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yangmei Luo

    Full Text Available To investigate perceptual and neural correlates of future self-appraisals as a function of temporal distance, event-related potentials (ERPs were recorded while participants (11 women, eight men made judgments about the applicability of trait adjectives to their near future selves (i.e., one month from now and their distant future selves (i.e., three years from now. Behavioral results indicated people used fewer positive adjectives, more negative adjectives, recalled more specific events coming to mind and felt more psychologically connected to the near future self than the distant future self. Electrophysiological results demonstrated that negative trait adjectives elicited more positive ERP deflections than did positive trait adjectives in the interval between 550 and 800 ms (late positive component within the near future self condition. However, within the same interval, there were no significant differences between negative and positive traits adjectives in the distant future self condition. The results suggest that negative emotional processing in future self-appraisals is modulated by temporal distance, consistent with predictions of construal level theory.

  19. Assessment of Rainfall-induced Landslide Potential and Spatial Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yie-Ruey; Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chen, Jing-Wen; Chiang, Jie-Lun; Hsieh, Shun-Chieh; Chue, Yung-Sheng

    2016-04-01

    Recently, due to the global climate change, most of the time the rainfall in Taiwan is of short duration but with high intensity. Due to Taiwan's steep terrain, rainfall-induced landslides often occur and lead to human causalities and properties loss. Taiwan's government has invested huge reconstruction funds to the affected areas. However, after rehabilitation they still face the risk of secondary sediment disasters. Therefore, this study assesses rainfall-induced (secondary) landslide potential and spatial distribution in watershed of Southern Taiwan under extreme climate change. The study areas in this research are Baolai and Jianshan villages in the watershed of the Laonongxi River Basin in the Southern Taiwan. This study focused on the 3 years after Typhoon Morakot (2009 to 2011). During this period, the study area experienced six heavy rainfall events including five typhoons and one heavy rainfall. The genetic adaptive neural network, texture analysis and GIS were implemented in the analysis techniques for the interpretation of satellite images and to obtain surface information and hazard log data and to analyze land use change. A multivariate hazards evaluation method was applied to quantitatively analyze the weights of various natural environmental and slope development hazard factors. Furthermore, this study established a slope landslide potential assessment model and depicted a slope landslide potential diagram by using the GIS platform. The interaction between (secondary) landslide mechanism, scale, and location was analyzed using association analysis of landslide historical data and regional environmental characteristics. The results of image classification before and after six heavy rainfall events show that the values of coefficient of agreement are at medium-high level. By multivariate hazards evaluation method, geology and the effective accumulative rainfall (EAR) are the most important factors. Slope, distance from fault, aspect, land disturbance

  20. Assessment potential wind energy in the north area of Iraq

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed F. Hassoon

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Wind energy is renewable and environment friendly, which can be connected for various end-uses. A precise knowledge of wind energy regime is a pre-requisite for the efficient planning and implementation of any wind energy project. However, due to the absence of a reliable and accurate Iraq Wind Atlas, further studies on the assessment of wind energy are necessary. The main purpose of this paper is present and perform an investigation on the wind energy potential in the northern area of Iraq. Therefore, in this study, wind data collected over a period of nearly three decades at five different locations in order to figure out the wind energy potential in this region. The data from selected stations were analyzed using the two-parameter Weibull probability distribution function. The higher probability frequency wind speed at windy month (July is found in Tuz and Tikrit stations. In Tuz the range (2.5-3.0 m/s taken about 45% from the domain wind, In Tikrit the high ranges of wind (3.5-4.0 m/s and (4.0-4.5m/s form 40.9% and 36.4% of wind speed frequency, but high frequency of low wind speed is concentrated at Biji, Kirkuk and Mosul. This is reflected on The maximum expected energy output (13.5kw/h occupied at Tikrit station. Overall The study presented here is an attempt to promote wind energy in north Iraq and to bridge the gap in order to create prospective Wind Atlas of Iraq.

  1. A coupled Bayesian and fault tree methodology to assess future groundwater conditions in light of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Huang

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Maintaining acceptable groundwater levels, particularly in arid areas, while protecting ecosystems, are key measures against desertification. Due to complicated hydrological processes and their inherent uncertainties, investigations of groundwater recharge conditions are challenging, particularly in arid areas under climate changing conditions. To assist planning to protect against desertification, a fault tree methodology, in conjunction with fuzzy logic and Bayesian data mining, are applied to Minqin Oasis, a highly vulnerable regime in northern China. A set of risk factors is employed within the fault tree framework, with fuzzy logic translating qualitative risk data into probabilities. Bayesian data mining is used to quantify the contribution of each risk factor to the final aggregated risk. The implications of both historical and future climate trends are employed for temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET to assess water table changes under various future scenarios. The findings indicate that water table levels will continue to drop at the rate of 0.6 m yr−1 in the future when climatic effects alone are considered, if agricultural and industrial production capacity remain at 2004 levels.

  2. The future of satellite remote sensing: A worldwide assessment and prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spann, G. W.

    1984-01-01

    A frame-work in which to assess and predict the future prospects for satellite remote sensing markets is provided. The scope of the analysis is the satellite-related market for data, equipment, and services. It encompasses both domestic and international markets and contains an examination of the various market characteristics by market segment (e.g., Federal Government, State and Local Governments, Academic Organizations, Industrial Companies, and Individuals) and primary applications areas (e.g., Geology, Forestry, Land Resource Management, Agriculture and Cartography). The forecasts are derived from an analysis of both U.S. and foreign market data. The evolution and current status of U.S. and Foreign markets to arrive at market growth rates is evaluated. Circumstances and events which are likely to affect the future market development are examined. A market growth scenario is presented that is consistent with past data sales trends and takes into account the dynamic nature of the future satellite remote sensing market. Several areas of current and future business opportunities available in this market are discussed. Specific worldwide forecasts are presented in three market sectors for the period 1980 to 1990.

  3. Present and future assessment of growing degree days over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattanaik, D. R.; Mohapatra, M.; Srivastava, A. K.; Kumar, Arun

    2016-08-01

    The determination of heat requirements in the first developing phases of plants has been expressed as Growing Degree Days (GDD). The current study focuses on three selected study areas in Greece that are characterised by different climatic conditions due to their location and aims to assess the future variation and spatial distribution of Growing Degree Days (GDD) and how these can affect the main cultivations in the study areas. Future temperature data were obtained and analysed by the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis was performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 with the A1B and B1 scenarios. Spatial distribution was performed using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling technique through ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for all the future periods and scenarios, the GDD are expected to increase. Furthermore, the increase in the Sperchios River basin will be the highest, followed by the Ardas and the Geropotamos River basins. Moreover, the cultivation period will be shifted from April-October to April-September which will have social, economical and environmental benefits. Additionally, the spatial distribution indicated that in the upcoming years the existing cultivations can find favourable conditions and can be expanded in mountainous areas as well. On the other hand, due to the rough topography that exists in the study areas, the wide expansion of the existing cultivations into higher altitudes is unaffordable. Nevertheless, new more profitable cultivations can be introduced which can find propitious conditions in terms of GDD.

  4. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Glacier Hazards Assessment: Application to Predicting the Potential for Glacier Lake Outbursts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furfaro, R.; Kargel, J. S.; Fink, W.; Bishop, M. P.

    2010-12-01

    Glaciers and ice sheets are among the largest unstable parts of the solid Earth. Generally, glaciers are devoid of resources (other than water), are dangerous, are unstable and no infrastructure is normally built directly on their surfaces. Areas down valley from large alpine glaciers are also commonly unstable due to landslide potential of moraines, debris flows, snow avalanches, outburst floods from glacier lakes, and other dynamical alpine processes; yet there exists much development and human occupation of some disaster-prone areas. Satellite remote sensing can be extremely effective in providing cost-effective and time- critical information. Space-based imagery can be used to monitor glacier outlines and their lakes, including processes such as iceberg calving and debris accumulation, as well as changing thicknesses and flow speeds. Such images can also be used to make preliminary identifications of specific hazardous spots and allows preliminary assessment of possible modes of future disaster occurrence. Autonomous assessment of glacier conditions and their potential for hazards would present a major advance and permit systematized analysis of more data than humans can assess. This technical leap will require the design and implementation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms specifically designed to mimic glacier experts’ reasoning. Here, we introduce the theory of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) as an AI tool for predicting and assessing natural hazards in alpine glacier environments. FCM techniques are employed to represent expert knowledge of glaciers physical processes. A cognitive model embedded in a fuzzy logic framework is constructed via the synergistic interaction between glaciologists and AI experts. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed AI methodology as applied to predicting hazards in glacier environments, we designed and implemented a FCM that addresses the challenging problem of autonomously assessing the Glacier Lake Outburst Flow

  5. Genetic diversity and population structure of endangered Aquilaria malaccensis revealed potential for future conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Pradeep; Nag, Akshay; Parmar, Rajni; Ghosh, Sneha; Bhau, Brijmohan Singh; Sharma, Ram Kumar

    2015-12-01

    The endangered Aquilaria malaccensis,is an important plant with high economic values. Characterization of genetic diversity and population structure is receiving tremendous attention for effective conservation of genetic resources. Considering important repositories of biological diversity, the genetic relationships of 127 A. malaccensis accessions from 10 home gardens of three states of northeast India were assessed using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP). Of the 1153 fragments amplified with four AFLP primer combinations, 916 (79.4%) were found to be polymorphic. Polymorphic information content (PIC) and marker index (MI) of each primer combination correlate significantly with the number of genotypes resolved. Overall, a high genetic diversity (avg. 71.85%) was recorded. Further, high gene flow (Nm: 3.37), low genetic differentiation (FST: 0.069) and high within population genetic variation (93%) suggests that most of the genetic diversity is restricted within population. Neighbour joining (NJ), principal coordinate analysis (PCoA) and Bayesian-based STRUCTURE grouped all the accessions in two clusters with significant intermixing between populations, therefore, revealed that two genetically distinct gene pools are operating in the A. malaccensis populations cultivated in home gardens. Based on the various diversity inferences, five diverse populations (JOH, FN, HLF, DHM and ITN) were identified, which can be potentially exploited to develop conservation strategies for A. malaccensis.

  6. Planning for sustainable tourism in southern Pulau Banggi: an assessment of biophysical conditions and their implications for future tourism development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teh, Lydia; Cabanban, Annadel S

    2007-12-01

    A priori assessments of a site's biophysical and socio-economic capacity for accommodating tourism are less common than tourism impact studies. A priori evaluations can provide a contextual understanding of ecological, economic and socio-cultural forces, which shape the prospects for sustainable tourism development at the host destination, and can avert adverse impacts of tourism. We conduct an a priori assessment of the biophysical environment of Pulau Banggi, in the Malaysian state of Sabah for sustainable tourism development. We characterise baseline conditions of the island's marine biodiversity, seasonality, and infrastructure. We then evaluate how existing biophysical conditions will influence options for sustainable tourism development. In particular, we suggest conditions, if there are any, which constitute a limit to future tourism development in terms of compatibility for recreation and resilience to visitor impacts. We find that the biggest constraint is the lack of adequate water and sanitation infrastructure. Blast fishing, although occurring less than once per hour, can potentially destroy the major attraction for tourists. We conclude that while Pulau Banggi possesses natural qualities that are attractive for ecotourism, financial and institutional support must be made available to provide facilities and services that will enable local participation in environmental protection and enhance prospects for future sustainable tourism.

  7. Science Education Futures: "Great Potential. Could Do Better. Needs to Try Harder"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubusson, Peter; Panizzon, Debra; Corrigan, Deborah

    2016-04-01

    Reviews of science education consistently suggest that there is (another) crisis. They express concern with the status quo and suggest directions that science education might take. In this context, science educators need to consider the current state of play, the needs of generations in a world to come and the characteristics of future science education. The research reported in this paper uses a futures methodology informed by the Delphi technique and scenario thinking. Four science education futures scenarios were constructed over an extended period of consultation. These were particularly influenced by discussion arising from an Australasian Science Education Research Association (ASERA) forum on science education futures. They were presented to a panel of ASERA professors to stimulate consideration of and commentary on the future of science education. The focus in interviews was on identifying and discussing elements of the scenarios that were desirable and likely. Analysis of data indicates divergence on some features of the future and compromise on others. This paper presents the scenarios and findings from interviews with the panel. We highlight key prospects for science education and propose areas for development if we are to produce a future that is designed rather than merely a compromise that arises by default.

  8. Assessment of visual disability using visual evoked potentials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeon Jihoon

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The purpose of this study is to validate the use of visual evoked potential (VEP to objectively quantify visual acuity in normal and amblyopic patients, and determine if it is possible to predict visual acuity in disability assessment to register visual pathway lesions. Methods A retrospective chart review was conducted of patients diagnosed with normal vision, unilateral amblyopia, optic neuritis, and visual disability who visited the university medical center for registration from March 2007 to October 2009. The study included 20 normal subjects (20 right eyes: 10 females, 10 males, ages 9–42 years, 18 unilateral amblyopic patients (18 amblyopic eyes, ages 19–36 years, 19 optic neuritis patients (19 eyes: ages 9–71 years, and 10 patients with visual disability having visual pathway lesions. Amplitude and latencies were analyzed and correlations with visual acuity (logMAR were derived from 20 normal and 18 amblyopic subjects. Correlation of VEP amplitude and visual acuity (logMAR of 19 optic neuritis patients confirmed relationships between visual acuity and amplitude. We calculated the objective visual acuity (logMAR of 16 eyes from 10 patients to diagnose the presence or absence of visual disability using relations derived from 20 normal and 18 amblyopic eyes. Results Linear regression analyses between amplitude of pattern visual evoked potentials and visual acuity (logMAR of 38 eyes from normal (right eyes and amblyopic (amblyopic eyes subjects were significant [y = −0.072x + 1.22, x: VEP amplitude, y: visual acuity (logMAR]. There were no significant differences between visual acuity prediction values, which substituted amplitude values of 19 eyes with optic neuritis into function. We calculated the objective visual acuity of 16 eyes of 10 patients to diagnose the presence or absence of visual disability using relations of y = −0.072x + 1.22 (−0.072. This resulted in a prediction

  9. Assessing atmospheric bias correction for dynamical consistency using potential vorticity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocheta, Eytan; Evans, Jason P.; Sharma, Ashish

    2014-12-01

    Correcting biases in atmospheric variables prior to impact studies or dynamical downscaling can lead to new biases as dynamical consistency between the ‘corrected’ fields is not maintained. Use of these bias corrected fields for subsequent impact studies and dynamical downscaling provides input conditions that do not appropriately represent intervariable relationships in atmospheric fields. Here we investigate the consequences of the lack of dynamical consistency in bias correction using a measure of model consistency—the potential vorticity (PV). This paper presents an assessment of the biases present in PV using two alternative correction techniques—an approach where bias correction is performed individually on each atmospheric variable, thereby ignoring the physical relationships that exists between the multiple variables that are corrected, and a second approach where bias correction is performed directly on the PV field, thereby keeping the system dynamically coherent throughout the correction process. In this paper we show that bias correcting variables independently results in increased errors above the tropopause in the mean and standard deviation of the PV field, which are improved when using the alternative proposed. Furthermore, patterns of spatial variability are improved over nearly all vertical levels when applying the alternative approach. Results point to a need for a dynamically consistent atmospheric bias correction technique which results in fields that can be used as dynamically consistent lateral boundaries in follow-up downscaling applications.

  10. Assessing potential radiological harm to fukushima recovery workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Bobby R

    2011-01-01

    A radiological emergency exists at the Fukushima Daiichi (Fukushima I) nuclear power plant in Japan as a result of the March 11, 2011 magnitude 9.0 earthquake and the massive tsunami that arrived later. News media misinformation related to the emergency triggered enormous social fear worldwide of the radioactivity that is being released from damaged fuel rods. The heroic recovery workers are a major concern because they are being exposed to mostly gamma radiation during their work shifts and life-threatening damage to the radiosensitive bone marrow could occur over time. This paper presents a way in which the bone marrow equivalent dose (in millisieverts), as estimated per work shift, could be used along with the hazard function model previously developed for radiological risk assessment to repeatedly check for potential life-threatening harm (hematopoietic system damage) to workers. Three categories of radiation hazard indication are proposed: 1, life-threatening damage unlikely; 2, life-threatening damage possible; 3, life-threatening damage likely. Categories 2 and 3 would be avoided if the whole body effective dose did not exceed the annual effective dose limit of 250 mSv. For down-wind populations, hormetic effects (activated natural protective processes) are much more likely than are deleterious effects.

  11. Psychophysiological assessment of PTSD: a potential research domain criteria construct.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Margaret R; Ruef, Anna M; Pineles, Suzanne L; Japuntich, Sandra J; Macklin, Michael L; Lasko, Natasha B; Orr, Scott P

    2013-09-01

    Most research on posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) relies on clinician-administered interview and self-report measures to establish the presence/absence and severity of the disorder. Accurate diagnosis of PTSD is made challenging by the presence of symptoms shared with other psychopathologies and the subjective nature of patients' descriptions of their symptoms. A physiological assessment capable of reliably "diagnosing" PTSD could provide adjunctive information that might mitigate these diagnostic limitations. In the present study, we examined the construct validity of a potential psychophysiological measure of PTSD, that is, psychophysiological reactivity to script-driven imagery (SDI-PR), as measured against the current diagnostic "gold-standard" for PTSD, the Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale (CAPS). Convergent and predictive validity and stability were examined. Thirty-six individuals completed an SDI-PR procedure, the CAPS, and self-report measures of mental and physical health at their initial visit and approximately 6 months later. SDI-PR and the CAPS demonstrated excellent stability across measurement occasions. SDI-PR showed moderately strong convergent validity with the CAPS. After adjusting for self-reported depression, predictive validity for the CAPS, with regard to health sequelae, was reduced, whereas it remained mostly unchanged for SDI-PR. Findings support SDI-PR as a valid and stable measure of PTSD that captures a pathophysiologic process in individuals with PTSD. Results are discussed with regard to the research domain criteria framework.

  12. Potential Spacecraft-to-Spacecraft Radio Observations with EJSM: Wave of the Future? (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marouf, E. A.; Tortora, P.; Asmar, S. W.; Folkner, W. M.; Hinson, D.; Iess, L.; Linscott, I. R.; Lorenz, R. D.; Mueller-Wodarg, I. C.

    2010-12-01

    Future active radio observations of planetary and satellite atmospheres and surfaces could significantly benefit form the presence of two or more spacecraft in orbit around a target object. Traditionally, radio occultation and bistatic surface scattering experiments have been conducted using a single spacecraft operating in the Downlink (DL) configuration, with the spacecraft transmitting and at least one Earth-based station receiving. The configuration has the advantage of using powerful ground-based receivers for down-conversion, digitization, and digital recording of large bandwidth data for later off-line processing and analysis. It has the disadvantage of an available free-space signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) limited by the relatively small carrier power (10-20 W) a spacecraft can practically transmit. Recent technological advances in designing small-mass and small-power spacecraft-based digital receivers capable of on-board signal processing could open the door for significant performance improvement compared with the DL configuration. For example, with two spacecraft in orbit instead of one, the smaller distance D between the two spacecraft compared with the distance to Earth can boost achievable free-space SNR by one to three orders of magnitude, depending on D. In addition, richer variability in observation geometry can be captured using spacecraft-to-spacecraft (SC-to-SC) radio occultations and surface scattering. By their nature, traditional DL occultations are confined to the morning and evening terminators. Availability of on-board processing capability also opens the door for conducting Uplink (UL) occultation and bistatic observations, where very large power (> 20 kW) can be transmitted from an Earth-based station, potentially boasting achievable free-space SNR by orders of magnitude, comparable to the SC-to-SC case and much higher than the DL case. The Europa Jupiter System Mission (EJSM) will likely be the first planetary mission to benefit from the

  13. Potential Impacts of EOS-Aura Ozone Observations in Future Reanalyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wargan, K.; Pawson, S.; Olsen, M. A.; Witte, J. C.; Ziemke, J. R.; Douglass, A. R.

    2013-12-01

    As a crucial component of Earth's radiative budget, ozone is included in atmospheric reanalyses. Routine satellite observations of backscattered solar radiation (SBUV and TOMS datasets) provide long-term, cross-calibrated ozone records from a series of satellites, but do not have sufficient vertical resolution to resolve the sharp ozone gradients near the tropopause. Capturing this profile structure is essential for separating the stratospheric and tropospheric ozone distributions, which is important as we search for a full assessment of long-term changes in tropospheric ozone. As an important, chemically active pollutant, tropospheric ozone is known to be changing as emissions of its precursors (e.g., oxides of nitrogen) are controlled, but global impacts of such changes are complicated by the importance of the stratosphere as a source for ozone in the troposphere, as well as the roles of the lightning-produced nitrogen monoxide sources and of sinks due to chemical reactions and surface deposition. The EOS-Aura data record provides (to date) eight years of observations of total ozone column (from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument, OMI) and profiles (from the Microwave Limb Sounder, MLS). A low-resolution (2 by 2.5 degree), eight-year long assimilation experiment has been performed as a test for upcoming GMAO reanalyses, which will have higher (half-degree) spatial resolution. The analysis focuses on two aspects of the assimilated product: the degree to which this assimilation correctly separates the lower stratospheric and tropospheric air masses, and the quality of the assimilated tropospheric ozone column. There is a very good agreement between the assimilated product and independent data from ozonesondes and the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder instrument. The analysis emphasizes the consistency of the assimilated ozone with temperature and dynamics, including estimates of the strength of the stratospheric ozone source for the troposphere. While these

  14. Coastal sea level variability in the eastern English Channel: Potentialities for future SWOT applicability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turki, Imen; Laignel, Benoit; Chevalier, Laetitia; Costa, Stephane

    2014-05-01

    Scientists and engineers need to understand the sea level variability in order to provide better estimates of the sea level rise for coastal defense using tide gauges and radar altimetry missions. The natural limitation of the tide gauge records is their geographical sparsity and confinement to coastlines. The future Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will be launched in 2015 over a period of 5 years and will be designated to address this issue. This research was carried out in the framework of the program Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) which is a partnership between NASA and CNES. Using a series of statistical analyses, we point to characterize the sea level variability in the eastern English Channel (western France) from four tide gauges in Dunkirk, Dieppe, Le Havre and Cherbourg for the period 1964-2012. To assess the extent to which tide gauge point observations represent tide gauge data, we compare tide gauge records to SWOT measurements in their vicinity. Results have shown that the bimodality of the sea level, provided by the distribution analysis, can be reproduced by SWOT measurements with an overestimation of both modes and also the extreme values. The rate of the linear regression was also overestimated from 1.7-4 mm/yr to 2.6-5.4 mm/yr. The continuous wavelet transform of sea level records has shown the large-scale variability of annual (1-year band) and interannual cycles (2-6- and 6-12-year bands) in sea level, which can be explained by oceanographic and hydrological factors. High frequency dynamics of the sea level variability at short time-scales were extracted from SWOT measurements. They provide a good survey of the surge events (band of 3-4 months) and the spring-neap tidal cycle (band of 28 days). Then, tide gauges should be used in conjunction with satellite data to infer the full time-scale variability. Further studies are needed to refine the SWOT applicability in coastal areas. Key words: coastal zone, sea level

  15. [Genetically modified food (food derived from biotechnology): current and future trends in public acceptance and safety assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishiura, Hiroshi; Imai, Hirohisa; Nakao, Hiroyuki; Tsukino, Hiromasa; Kuroda, Yoshiki; Katoh, Takahiko

    2002-11-01

    Current and future trends regarding genetically modified (GM) crops and food stuffs were reviewed, with a particular focus on public acceptance and safety assessment. While GM foods, foods derived from biotechnology, are popular with growers and producers, they are still a matter of some concern among consumers. In fact, our recent surveys showed that Japanese consumers had become uneasy about the potential health risks of genetically modified foods. Many Japanese consumers have only vague ideas about the actual health risks, and they appear to be making decisions simply by rejecting GM food because of non-informed doubts. Although the debate about GM foods has increased in the mass media and scientific journals, few articles concerning direct studies on the potential toxicity or adverse health effects of GM foods have appeared. The roles of relevant international regulatory bodies in ensuring that GM crops and food are safe are therefore have summarized. Finally, the current debate on use of GM crops in agriculture and future trends for development of GM foods with enriched nutrients, better functionality, and medicinal ingredients, which will be of direct benefit to the consumer, are covered.

  16. Potential Effects of Future Climate Change on the Bioclimatic Habitat of Ecoregions and Managed Lands in Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafer, S. L.; Saltré, F.; Bartlein, P. J.

    2011-12-01

    Conservation and natural resource managers need information on the potential effects of climate change for the species and ecosystems they manage. We evaluated potential future changes in climate and bioclimatic habitat for ecoregions (as defined by The Nature Conservancy) and managed areas (e.g., national parks) in Oregon, USA. We used future climate simulations for the 21st century from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) data set that were produced under the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario by three coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), UKMO-HadCM3). Projected future climate anomalies were interpolated using geographic-distance-weighted bilinear interpolation to a 30-arc-second (~1-km) grid encompassing the state of Oregon. The interpolated anomalies were applied to 1961-1990 30-year mean climate data (PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State Univ.). Bioclimatic variables (e.g., growing degree days) were calculated using the interpolated climate data and soil data from the CONUS-Soil data set (Miller and White 1998). We chose bioclimatic variables that represent important physiological and environmental limits for Oregon species and habitats of management concern. Maps and multivariate descriptive plots were used to evaluate the direction, magnitude, and spatial patterns of projected future climate and bioclimatic changes. The results indicate which ecoregions and managed areas would experience the largest climate and bioclimatic changes under each of the potential future climate simulations.

  17. Mitigation potential of horizontal ground coupled heat pumps for current and future climatic conditions: UK environmental modelling and monitoring studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    García González, Raquel; Verhoef, Anne; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Gan, Guohui; Wu, Yupeng; Hughes, Andrew; Mansour, Majdi; Blyth, Eleanor; Finch, Jon; Main, Bruce

    2010-05-01

    model predictions of soil moisture content and soil temperature with measurements at different GCHP locations over the UK. The combined effect of environment dynamics and horizontal GCHP technical properties on long-term GCHP performance will be assessed using a detailed land surface model (JULES: Joint UK Land Environment Simulator, Meteorological Office, UK) with additional equations embedded describing the interaction between GCHP heat exchangers and the surrounding soil. However, a number of key soil physical processes are currently not incorporated in JULES, such as groundwater flow, which, especially in lowland areas, can have an important effect on the heat flow between soil and HE. Furthermore, the interaction between HE and soil may also cause soil vapour and moisture fluxes. These will affect soil thermal conductivity and hence heat flow between the HE and the surrounding soil, which will in turn influence system performance. The project will address these issues. We propose to drive an improved version of JULES (with equations to simulate GCHP exchange embedded), with long-term gridded (1 km) atmospheric, soil and vegetation data (reflecting current and future environmental conditions) to reliably assess the mitigation potential of GCHPs over the entire domain of the UK, where uptake of GCHPs has been low traditionally. In this way we can identify areas that are most suitable for the installation of GCHPs. Only then recommendations can be made to local and regional governments, for example, on how to improve the mitigation potential in less suitable areas by adjusting GCHP configurations or design.

  18. Assessment and evaluation of geothermal potential in Switzerland; Atlas des ressources geothermiques suisses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andenmatten-Berthoud, N. [Geowatt AG, Zuerich (Switzerland); Kohl, T. [Eidgenossische Technische Hochschule (ETH), Institut de Geophysique, Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2003-07-01

    This report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy presents the first part of a project that aims at assessing the geothermal energy potential of Switzerland's underground. Due to the presence of the Alps the Swiss underground is highly heterogeneous with numerous geologic faults. Geothermal energy assessment has to be carried out region after region. The first steps consisted in collecting existing geological and hydrogeological data and finding out the best appropriate methodology. Analysis was restricted to the Northwest of Switzerland (Basle-Zurich area), which has a dense population - an important factor for future applications - and is better known than others, thanks to previous studies performed in conjunction with site pre-selection for future radioactive waste disposal facilities. In this area, sandstones and limestones are found on the crystalline bottom rock. Mathematical models and computer codes were developed for interpolation and extrapolation of local and regional data. Three dimensional finite-element techniques were used. The results are presented in diagrams and maps.

  19. Corporate marketing potential assessment model in the context of operational, tactical and strategic levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.V. Potrashkova

    2013-12-01

    description; by set of predetermined managerial decisions; by description of parameters of the outer environment; as factors of corporate marketing potential there are considered characteristics of client-enterprise social and economic relations, that were built during previous periods of time; these characteristics include client expectations for products quality and corporate servicing; corporate marketing potential is considered in close interrelation with other components of the aggregate corporate potential (it is presumed that together with the production potential it determines possible volumes of financial inflows and the volume of corporate income from operational activity. Conclusions and directions of further researches. The proposed system of models is intended for acquiring result-oriented assessment of corporate marketing potential in the form of set of possible variants of products sales for different states of corporate environment and different variants of operational, tactical and strategic management of corporate marketing resources. The structure of models which are described in this work reflects the relation of corporate marketing activity results in short, medium and long-term periods of time with the main characteristics of corporate marketing resources, characteristics of corporate social and economic relations with clients, factors of the outer environment and different parameters of the resource management. The future research on this topic should be targeted at the disclosure of the specific analytical form of interrelations of the result-oriented indicators of corporate marketing activity with internal and external factors.

  20. Future trends and geographical distribution of potential evapotranspiration in Germany throughout the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rauch, E.; Panferov, O.; Doering, C.

    2009-04-01

    Recent climate projections for the 21st century (e.g. ECHAM5-MPIOM) show strong changes of the global climate. Forests in Germany are exposed to these changes, which include increase of temperature, changes of seasonal precipitation patterns and possibly the increase of frequency of extreme meteorological events as droughts, rain and wind storms. Present study focuses on the characterization of possible future developments of potential evapotranspiration (PET) throughout the 21st Century under conditions of SRES scenarios A1B and B1. The FAO-56-Penman-Monteith (ALLEN et al., 1998) was implemented. Climate scenario data were downscaled by the regional climate model Climate Local Model (CLM) to the spatial resolution of about 0.2°*0.2° and used to calculate PET for Germany. The spatial and temporal variability of PET in Germany during the 21st century is examined and causes of variation discussed. Areas within Germany with particularly stronger - hot spots - and weaker - cold spots - changes in PET are identified and analyzed in detail. Two hot spots, the Saarland and the Black Forest, and a cold spot, East Brandenburg, were identified. The deviating development of the hot/cold spots are traced back to the stronger or weaker development of the energy balance, which is higher in the hot spots and lower in the cold spot. The spatially differential development of PET could be traced back to the regionally different development of the meteorological variables. The contributions of various meteorological variables to the temporal trend detected in the PET are then determined. Clear trends in the annual sums or means could be described for several component variables of PET. Some variables do not show any noteworthy trend in annual mean but changes in their seasonal variability. The annual PET sums do not increase so much as expected when seen in relation to the temperature increase predicted for the 21st century, particularly in SRES A1B. PET in B1 does not evolve as

  1. The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study—Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M.; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B.; Edwards, Stephen W.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S.; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M.; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J.; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J.; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A.; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Thomas, Russell S.; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R.; Vandenberg, John J.; Villeneuve, Daniel L.; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S.

    2016-01-01

    Background: The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Objective: Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. Methods: New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose–response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. Discussion: NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure–response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. Conclusions: While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I

  2. Assessing the neurotoxic potential of methyl ethyl ketoxime in rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulze, G E; Derelanko, M J

    1993-11-01

    The potential of methyl ethyl ketoxime (MEKO) to produce neurotoxicity following acute and subchronic exposure was studied in rats. A Functional Observational Battery, assessment of motor activity, and neuropathology evaluations were conducted in the context of acute and subchronic toxicity studies. Three independent studies are reported: a pilot time-effect study designed to determine the time course and time to peak effect following a single high dose of MEKO, a single-dose neurotoxicity study, and a subchronic (13-week) repeated-dose neurotoxicity study in rats. An acrylamide-positive control group was included in the acute and subchronic studies for comparison with MEKO. Following an acute oral exposure of MEKO at a dose level of 900 mg/kg, locomotor activity was decreased compared to control with maximum decreases occurring between 30 and 60 min following oral administration. In the acute study, transient treatment-related changes in ease of cage removal, ease of handling, and in posture and gait were observed 1 hr after dosing with 900 mg/kg MEKO, as were significant depressions in motor activity. Following a single 300 mg/kg dose, transient MEKO-related changes in gait and aerial righting reflex were noted 1 hr after dosing. All effects were reversible within 24 hr of dosing. The single 100 mg/kg dose of MEKO was without observable effects. No acrylamide-related behavioral effects were noted following a single 50 mg/kg dose. In the subchronic study, transient treatment-related changes in ease of cage removal, ease of handling, and in posture, gait, and aerial righting were observed at the 400 mg/kg/day dose level when assessments were conducted immediately after dose administration. No consistent behavioral effects were observed prior to daily dose administration even after 13 weeks of exposure, indicating a lack of cumulative behavioral effect. No consistent behavioral changes were noted at doses of 125 mg/kg/day and below. Significant dose

  3. Molecular Markers of Diabetic Retinopathy: Potential Screening Tool of the Future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pusparajah, Priyia; Lee, Learn-Han; Abdul Kadir, Khalid

    2016-01-01

    Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is among the leading causes of new onset blindness in adults. Effective treatment may delay the onset and progression of this disease provided it is diagnosed early. At present retinopathy can only be diagnosed via formal examination of the eye by a trained specialist, which limits the population that can be effectively screened. An easily accessible, reliable screening biomarker of diabetic retinopathy would be of tremendous benefit in detecting the population in need of further assessment and treatment. This review highlights specific biomarkers that show promise as screening markers to detect early diabetic retinopathy or even to detect patients at increased risk of DR at the time of diagnosis of diabetes. The pathobiology of DR is complex and multifactorial giving rise to a wide array of potential biomarkers. This review provides an overview of these pathways and looks at older markers such as advanced glycation end products (AGEs), inflammatory markers, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) as well as other newer proteins with a role in the pathogenesis of DR including neuroprotective factors such as brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and Pigment Epithelium Derived Factor (PEDF); SA100A12, pentraxin 3, brain natriuretic peptide, apelin 3, and chemerin as well as various metabolites such as lipoprotein A, folate, and homocysteine. We also consider the possible role of proteins identified through proteomics work whose levels are altered in the sera of patients with DR as screening markers though their role in pathophysiology remains to be characterized. The role of microRNA as a promising new screening marker is also discussed. PMID:27313539

  4. Functional genomic screening approaches in mechanistic toxicology and potential future applications of CRISPR-Cas9.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Hua; McHale, Cliona M; Smith, Martyn T; Zhang, Luoping

    2015-01-01

    Characterizing variability in the extent and nature of responses to environmental exposures is a critical aspect of human health risk assessment. Chemical toxicants act by many different mechanisms, however, and the genes involved in adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) and AOP networks are not yet characterized. Functional genomic approaches can reveal both toxicity pathways and susceptibility genes, through knockdown or knockout of all non-essential genes in a cell of interest, and identification of genes associated with a toxicity phenotype following toxicant exposure. Screening approaches in yeast and human near-haploid leukemic KBM7 cells have identified roles for genes and pathways involved in response to many toxicants but are limited by partial homology among yeast and human genes and limited relevance to normal diploid cells. RNA interference (RNAi) suppresses mRNA expression level but is limited by off-target effects (OTEs) and incomplete knockdown. The recently developed gene editing approach called clustered regularly interspaced short palindrome repeats-associated nuclease (CRISPR)-Cas9, can precisely knock-out most regions of the genome at the DNA level with fewer OTEs than RNAi, in multiple human cell types, thus overcoming the limitations of the other approaches. It has been used to identify genes involved in the response to chemical and microbial toxicants in several human cell types and could readily be extended to the systematic screening of large numbers of environmental chemicals. CRISPR-Cas9 can also repress and activate gene expression, including that of non-coding RNA, with near-saturation, thus offering the potential to more fully characterize AOPs and AOP networks. Finally, CRISPR-Cas9 can generate complex animal models in which to conduct preclinical toxicity testing at the level of individual genotypes or haplotypes. Therefore, CRISPR-Cas9 is a powerful and flexible functional genomic screening approach that can be harnessed to provide

  5. Molecular Markers of Diabetic Retinopathy: Potential Screening Tool of the Future?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priyia ePusparajah

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Diabetic retinopathy (DR is among the leading causes of new onset blindness in adults. Effective treatment may delay the onset and progression of this disease provided it is diagnosed early. At present retinopathy can only be diagnosed via formal examination of the eye by a trained specialist, which limits the population that can be effectively screened. An easily accessible, reliable screening biomarker of diabetic retinopathy would be of tremendous benefit in detecting the population in need of further assessment and treatment. This review highlights specific biomarkers that show promise as screening markers to detect early diabetic retinopathy or even to detect patients at increased risk of DR at the time of diagnosis of diabetes. The pathobiology of DR is complex and multifactorial giving rise to a wide array of potential biomarkers. This review provides an overview of these pathways and looks at older markers such as advanced glycation end products(AGEs, inflammatory markers, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF as well as other newer proteins with a role in the pathogenesis of DR including neuroprotective factors such as brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF and Pigment Epithelium Derived Factor (PEDF; SA100A12, pentraxin 3, brain natriuretic peptide, apelin 3 and chemerin as well as various metabolites such as lipoprotein A, folate and homocysteine. We also consider the possible role of proteins identified through proteomics work whose levels are altered in the sera of patients with DR as screening markers though their role in pathophysiology remains to be characterized. The role of microRNA as a promising new screening marker is also discussed.

  6. EASETECH Energy: Life Cycle Assessment of current and future Danish power systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Turconi, Roberto; Damgaard, Anders; Bisinella, Valentina

    A new life cycle assessment (LCA) model software has been developed by DTU Environment, to facilitate detailed LCA of energy technologies. The model, EASETECH Energy, is dedicated to the specific technologies needed to assess energy production and energy systems and provides an unprecedented...... flexibility with respect to LCA modeling of these technologies. To illustrate the functionality of the model, preliminary results from a LCA of the Danish power system in 2010 as well as two future scenarios for 2030 are presented. In addition to providing a general overview of the environmental profile...... of a renewable based power system, specific focus is placed on the typical challenges encountered when performing an LCA of a power system. Further, the key characteristics of EASETECH Energy that can expedite the set-up of multiple scenarios and enhance transparency in the modelling are explained....

  7. Solar enriched methane production: Assessment of plant potentialities and applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincenzo Piemonte

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The crucial environmental issue due to fossil fuel use in our society and industries and more and more perceived by the communities is stimulating the development of innovative technologies with the scope of reducing GHGs and pollutants emissions, improving plants efficiency and exploiting renewable energy sources. The idea proposed in the present work links this context: a novel hybrid plant for the production of a mixture of methane and hydrogen (20%vol, called enriched-methane, from a steam reforming reactor whose heat duty is supplied by a concentrating solar power (CSP plant by means of a molten salt stream is here conceived, modelled and assessed. The enriched-methane mixture can be applied in methane internal combustion engines (ICE reducing CO, CO2, unburned emissions and improving engine efficiency. Moreover, the residual sensible heat of solar-heated molten salt stream can be used to generate medium-pressure steam and to produce electricity by a steam-turbine. Therefore, the plant proposed is co-generative, producing both hydrogen and electricity from a solar source. The behaviour of methane steam reforming reactor is simulated by means of a 2D mathematical model and the design of a cogenerative solar plant is proposed, evaluating its potentialities in terms of MWh of electricity produced and number of vehicles fed by enriched-methane. A single CSP module (surface requirement = 1.5 hectares coupled with a 4-tubes-and-shell shaped reactor is able to produce 686 tons/year of hydrogen, equivalent to 3.430 tons/year of 20%vol H2-CH4 mixture and 3.097 MWh/year of clean electricity.

  8. Wind power potential assessment for three locations in Algeria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Himri, Y. [Electricity and Gas National Enterprise (Sonelgaz), Bechar (Algeria); Rehman, S. [Engineering Analysis Section, Center for Engineering Research, Research Institute, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Box 767, Dhahran 31261 (Saudi Arabia); Draoui, B. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Bechar (Algeria); Himri, S. [Department of Fundamental Sciences, University of Bechar (Algeria)

    2008-12-15

    This paper utilized wind speed data over a period of almost 10 years between 1977 and 1988 from three stations, namely Adrar, Timimoun and Tindouf to assess the wind power potential at these sites. The long-term annual mean wind speed values along with the wind turbine power curve values were used to estimate the annual energy output for a 30 MW installed capacity wind farm at each site. A total of 30 wind turbines each of 1000 kW rated power were used in the analysis. The long-term mean wind speed at Adrar, Timimoun and Tindouf was 5.9, 5.1 and 4.3 m/s at 10 m above ground level (AGL), respectively. Higher wind speeds were observed in the day time between 09:00 and 18:00 h and relatively smaller during rest of the period. Wind farms of 30 MW installed capacity at Adrar, Timimoun and Tindouf, if developed, could produce 98,832, 78,138 and 56,040 MWh of electricity annually taking into consideration the temperature and pressure adjustment coefficients of about 6% and all other losses of about 10%, respectively. The plant capacity factors at Adrar, Timimoun and Tindouf were found to be 38%, 30% and 21%, respectively. Finally, the cost of energy (COE) was found to be 3.1, 4.3 and 6.6 US cents/kWh at Adrar, Timimoun and Tindouf, respectively. It was noticed that such a development at these sites could result into avoidance of 48,577, 38,406 and 27,544 tons/year of CO{sub 2} equivalents green house gas (GHG) from entering into the local atmosphere, thus creating a clean and healthy atmosphere for local inhabitants. (author)

  9. Innovating for the future? : An external assessment of the future-oriented governance of the Dutch innovation system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duin, van der P.; Graaf, de R.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the future-orientation of the Dutch innovation system and formulate recommendations to improve it. Design/methodology/approach: The approach takes the form of in-depth interviews with Dutch experts who are sufficiently independent to formulate relevan

  10. Assessing the Potential of Economic-Geographical Position for Russian Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stepan Petrovich Zemtsov

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available On the basis of the review of the scientific literature, the category of economic-geographical position (EGP is formalized. The developed method of international and interregional EGP potential assessment is based on the use of gravity models; in the future, it can be widely used in regional studies to explore the benefits of the spatial location of objects (countries, regions, cities, etc.. These calculations for Russian regions have showed a significant spatial differentiation. The regions located near Moscow and St. Petersburg agglomerations have the maximum potential of interregional EGP, the potential decreases uniformly to the east. The maximum international EGP potential is concentrated in the regions on the coast of the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea and the Sea of Japan. The potential of the Kaliningrad region is in 5.6 times higher than it is for the Tyva Republic. In addition, it is revealed a significant increase in the total EGP potential in the 2000s, and its shift to the southern regions of the Far East due to the growth of the Asia-Pacific economies. The regions with a high and low efficiency of EGP use are revealed. The results are used to identify the connections between the EGP potential and the indicators of socio-economic development. It is found that a favorable EGP is one of the factors for gross regional productgrowth, the growth of investment and foreign trade, migration growth and spread of new technologies. Formalizing EGP as a category allows to use it to predict the spatial changes in the socioeconomic development of Russia.

  11. Future Water Resources Assessment for West African River Basins Under Climate Change, Population Growth and Irrigation Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wisser, D.; Ibrahim, B.; Proussevitch, A. A.

    2014-12-01

    West Africa economies rely on rain-fed agriculture and are extremely vulnerable to changes in precipitation. Results from the most recent generation of regional climate models suggest increases in rainy season rainfall variability (delayed rainy season onset, increased probability of dry spells, shorter rainy season duration) despite a moderate increase in rainy season total precipitation. These changes could potentially have detrimental effects on crop yield and food security. Additional pressures on water resources come from increased demand as a result of high population growth rates (~3% per year). Increased water storage and irrigation can help improve crop yields but future assessments of water resources are needed to prioritize irrigation development as an adaptation option. Increased water abstraction, in turn can impact water availability in downstream regions so that an integrated assessment of future water availability and demand is needed. We use a set of 15 RCM outputs from the CORDEX data archive to drive WBMplus, a hydrological model and simulate water availability under climate change. Based on estimated water constraints, we develop scenarios to expand irrigated areas (from the current 1% of all croplands) and calculate the effects on water scarcity, taking into account increased demand for domestic consumption and livestock water demand, at a spatial resolution of 10 km. Results around the 2050's indicate large potential to develop irrigated areas on ground and surface water and increase local water storage without increasing water scarcity downstream for many river basins in the region that could help alleviate pressures on the cropping systems and thereby increase food security.

  12. Impact of a Cross-Institutional Assessment Designed to Shape Future IT Professionals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grace Tan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available IT graduates need a suite of technical competencies and soft skills married with an understanding of the social and business contexts of the systems that they build. To instill in students an awareness of current IT industry practice coupled with the broader impact of their discipline in society, academics from Victoria University and Federation University initiated an across-institutional collaboration. The initiative resulted in a common formative assessment task undertaken by teams of students enrolled in each institution’s professional development units. An initial survey of students was undertaken prior to the assessment task. The survey queried students’ perceptions of a broad range of professional attitudes and skill sets needed by IT professionals when compared to non-skilled workers. Upon the completion of the assessment task, students were surveyed again as to their perceptions of the importance of personal skills, technical competencies, professional and team working skills, workplace knowledge, and cultural awareness for their future professional lives. Comparisons of both surveys’ results revealed that the cohort had a greater appreciation of technical abilities and team-working skills post the assessment task.

  13. The Future of Hydropower: Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change, Energy Prices and New Storage Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudard, Ludovic; Madani, Kaveh; Romerio, Franco

    2016-04-01

    The future of hydropower depends on various drivers, and in particular on climate change, electricity market evolution and innovation in new storage technologies. Their impacts on the power plants' profitability can widely differ in regards of scale, timing, and probability of occurrence. In this respect, the risk should not be expressed only in terms of expected revenue, but also of uncertainty. These two aspects must be considered to assess the future of hydropower. This presentation discusses the impacts of climate change, electricity market volatility and competing energy storage's technologies and quantifies them in terms of annual revenue. Our simulations integrate a glacio-hydrological model (GERM) with various electricity market data and models (mean reversion and jump diffusion). The medium (2020-50) and long-term (2070-2100) are considered thanks to various greenhouse gas scenarios (A1B, A2 and RCP3PD) and the stochastic approach for the electricity prices. An algorithm named "threshold acceptance" is used to optimize the reservoir operations. The impacts' scale, and the related uncertainties are presented for Mauvoisin, which is a storage-hydropower plant situated in the Swiss Alps, and two generic pure pumped-storage installations, which are assessed with the prices of 17 European electricity markets. The discussion will highlight the key differences between the impacts brought about by the drivers.

  14. Ecological niche modeling of coastal dune plants and future potential distribution in response to climate change and sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza-González, Gabriela; Martínez, M Luisa; Rojas-Soto, Octavio R; Vázquez, Gabriela; Gallego-Fernández, Juan B

    2013-08-01

    Climate change (CC) and sea level rise (SLR) are phenomena that could have severe impacts on the distribution of coastal dune vegetation. To explore this we modeled the climatic niches of six coastal dunes plant species that grow along the shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula, and projected climatic niches to future potential distributions based on two CC scenarios and SLR projections. Our analyses suggest that distribution of coastal plants will be severely limited, and more so in the case of local endemics (Chamaecrista chamaecristoides, Palafoxia lindenii, Cakile edentula). The possibilities of inland migration to the potential 'new shoreline' will be limited by human infrastructure and ecosystem alteration that will lead to a 'coastal squeeze' of the coastal habitats. Finally, we identified areas as future potential refuges for the six species in central Gulf of Mexico, and northern Yucatán Peninsula especially under CC and SLR scenarios.

  15. A Change in the Use of Regulatory Criteria for Assessing Potential Impacts of Sound on Fishes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Fred; Krebs, Justin; Popper, Arthur N

    2016-01-01

    The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) currently uses interim criteria developed on the US West Coast to assess the potential onset of peak and cumulative effects of noise on fishes. Analyses performed for this project provided adequate support for the NMFS to use the peak criterion (i.e., area ensonified by 206 dB re 1 μPa peak sound pressure level [SPL(peak)]) for estimating the incidental take of Hudson River sturgeon. Application of the peak criterion (rather than the cumulative criterion) could have implications for future construction projects because estimates of take using SPL(peak) will generally be considerably lower than estimates of take based on the cumulative sound exposure level.

  16. Biocatalyzed processes for production of commodity chemicals: Assessment of future research advances for N-butanol production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingham, J. D.

    1984-01-01

    This report is a summary of assessments by Chem Systems Inc. and a further evaluation of the impacts of research advances on energy efficiency and the potential for future industrial production of acetone-butanol-ethanol (ABE) solvents and other products by biocatalyzed processes. Brief discussions of each of the assessments made by CSI, followed by estimates of minimum projected energy consumption and costs for production of solvents by ABE biocatalyzed processes are included. These assessments and further advances discussed in this report show that substantial decreases in energy consumption and costs are possible on the basis of specific research advances; therefore, it appears that a biocatalyzed process for ABE can be developed that will be competitive with conventional petrochemical processes for production of n-butanol and acetone. (In this work, the ABE process was selected and utilized only as an example for methodology development; other possible bioprocesses for production of commodity chemicals are not intended to be excluded.) It has been estimated that process energy consumption can be decreased by 50%, with a corresponding cost reduction of 15-30% (in comparison with a conventional petrochemical process) by increasing microorganism tolerance to n-butanol and efficient recovery of product solvents from the vapor phase.

  17. Identifying and Mitigating Potential Nutrient and Sediment Hot Spots under a Future Scenario in the Missouri River Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, May [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Zhang, Zhonglong [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for large-scale watershed modeling could be useful for evaluating the quality of the water in regions that are dominated by nonpoint sources in order to identify potential “hot spots” for which mitigating strategies could be further developed. An analysis of water quality under future scenarios in which changes in land use would be made to accommodate increased biofuel production was developed for the Missouri River Basin (MoRB) based on a SWAT model application. The analysis covered major agricultural crops and biofuel feedstock in the MoRB, including pasture land, hay, corn, soybeans, wheat, and switchgrass. The analysis examined, at multiple temporal and spatial scales, how nitrate, organic nitrogen, and total nitrogen; phosphorus, organic phosphorus, inorganic phosphorus, and total phosphorus; suspended sediments; and water flow (water yield) would respond to the shifts in land use that would occur under proposed future scenarios. The analysis was conducted at three geospatial scales: (1) large tributary basin scale (two: Upper MoRB and Lower MoRB); (2) regional watershed scale (seven: Upper Missouri River, Middle Missouri River, Middle Lower Missouri River, Lower Missouri River, Yellowstone River, Platte River, and Kansas River); and (3) eight-digit hydrologic unit (HUC-8) subbasin scale (307 subbasins). Results showed that subbasin-level variations were substantial. Nitrogen loadings decreased across the entire Upper MoRB, and they increased in several subbasins in the Lower MoRB. Most nitrate reductions occurred in lateral flow. Also at the subbasin level, phosphorus in organic, sediment, and soluble forms was reduced by 35%, 45%, and 65%, respectively. Suspended sediments increased in 68% of the subbasins. The water yield decreased in 62% of the subbasins. In the Kansas River watershed, the water quality improved significantly with regard to every nitrogen and phosphorus compound. The improvement was

  18. Assessing the global warming potential of wooden products from the furniture sector to improve their ecodesign.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-García, Sara; Gasol, Carles M; Lozano, Raúl García; Moreira, María Teresa; Gabarrell, Xavier; Rieradevall i Pons, Joan; Feijoo, Gumersindo

    2011-12-01

    The main objective of this study was to determine the global warming potential of several wood products as an environmental criterion for their ecodesign. Two methodologies were combined: the quantification of greenhouse gas emissions (equivalent CO(2)) of several representative wood based products from the furniture sector and the integration of environmental aspects into product design. The products under assessment were classified in two groups: indoor products and outdoor products, depending on their location. "Indoor products" included a convertible cot/bed, a kitchen cabinet, an office table, a living room furniture, a headboard, youth room accessories and a wine crate, while the "Outdoor products" analysed were a ventilated wooden wall and a wooden playground. Spanish wood processing companies located in Galicia (NW Spain) and Catalonia (NE Spain) were analysed in detail. The life cycle of each product was carried out from a cradle-to-gate perspective according to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, using global warming potential as the selected impact category. According to the results, metals, boards and energy use appeared to be the most contributing elements to the environmental impact of the different products under assessment, with total contributions ranging from 40% to 90%. Furthermore, eco-design strategies were proposed by means of the methodology known as Design for the Environment (DfE). Improvement strategies viable for implementation in the short term were considered and analysed in detail, accounting for remarkable reductions in the equivalent CO(2) emissions (up to 60%). These strategies would be focused on the use of renewable energies such as photovoltaic cells, the promotion of national fibres or changes in the materials used. Other alternatives to be implemented in the long term can be of potential interest for future developments.

  19. Assessing the global warming potential of wooden products from the furniture sector to improve their ecodesign

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez-Garcia, Sara, E-mail: sara.gonzalez@usc.es [Division of Biology, Department of Life Sciences, Sir Alexander Fleming Building, Imperial College of London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Department of Chemical Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, 15782- Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Gasol, Carles M.; Lozano, Raul Garcia [Inedit Innovacio, Carretera de Cabrils, km 2 -IRTA-, 08348 Cabrils, Barcelona (Spain); SosteniPrA - UAB-IRTA, Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (UAB), 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain); Moreira, Ma Teresa [Department of Chemical Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, 15782- Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Gabarrell, Xavier; Rieradevall i Pons, Joan [SosteniPrA (UAB-IRTA), Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona UAB, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain); Department of Chemical Engineering, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (UAB), 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain); Feijoo, Gumersindo [Department of Chemical Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, 15782- Santiago de Compostela (Spain)

    2011-12-01

    The main objective of this study was to determine the global warming potential of several wood products as an environmental criterion for their ecodesign. Two methodologies were combined: the quantification of greenhouse gas emissions (equivalent CO{sub 2}) of several representative wood based products from the furniture sector and the integration of environmental aspects into product design. The products under assessment were classified in two groups: indoor products and outdoor products, depending on their location. 'Indoor products' included a convertible cot/bed, a kitchen cabinet, an office table, a living room furniture, a headboard, youth room accessories and a wine crate, while the 'Outdoor products' analysed were a ventilated wooden wall and a wooden playground. Spanish wood processing companies located in Galicia (NW Spain) and Catalonia (NE Spain) were analysed in detail. The life cycle of each product was carried out from a cradle-to-gate perspective according to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, using global warming potential as the selected impact category. According to the results, metals, boards and energy use appeared to be the most contributing elements to the environmental impact of the different products under assessment, with total contributions ranging from 40% to 90%. Furthermore, eco-design strategies were proposed by means of the methodology known as Design for the Environment (DfE). Improvement strategies viable for implementation in the short term were considered and analysed in detail, accounting for remarkable reductions in the equivalent CO{sub 2} emissions (up to 60%). These strategies would be focused on the use of renewable energies such as photovoltaic cells, the promotion of national fibres or changes in the materials used. Other alternatives to be implemented in the long term can be of potential interest for future developments.

  20. Assessment of a stochastic downscaling methodology in generating an ensemble of hourly future climate time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Caporali, E.

    2013-04-01

    This study extends a stochastic downscaling methodology to generation of an ensemble of hourly time series of meteorological variables that express possible future climate conditions at a point-scale. The stochastic downscaling uses general circulation model (GCM) realizations and an hourly weather generator, the Advanced WEather GENerator (AWE-GEN). Marginal distributions of factors of change are computed for several climate statistics using a Bayesian methodology that can weight GCM realizations based on the model relative performance with respect to a historical climate and a degree of disagreement in projecting future conditions. A Monte Carlo technique is used to sample the factors of change from their respective marginal distributions. As a comparison with traditional approaches, factors of change are also estimated by averaging GCM realizations. With either approach, the derived factors of change are applied to the climate statistics inferred from historical observations to re-evaluate parameters of the weather generator. The re-parameterized generator yields hourly time series of meteorological variables that can be considered to be representative of future climate conditions. In this study, the time series are generated in an ensemble mode to fully reflect the uncertainty of GCM projections, climate stochasticity, as well as uncertainties of the downscaling procedure. Applications of the methodology in reproducing future climate conditions for the periods of 2000-2009, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100, using the period of 1962-1992 as the historical baseline are discussed for the location of Firenze (Italy). The inferences of the methodology for the period of 2000-2009 are tested against observations to assess reliability of the stochastic downscaling procedure in reproducing statistics of meteorological variables at different time scales.

  1. Science Education Futures: "Great Potential. Could Do Better. Needs to Try Harder"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubusson, Peter; Panizzon, Debra; Corrigan, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    Reviews of science education consistently suggest that there is (another) crisis. They express concern with the status quo and suggest directions that science education might take. In this context, science educators need to consider the current state of play, the needs of generations in a world to come and the characteristics of future science…

  2. A Paradigm for a Future of Change in Organizations; A New Potential for Educational Theatre.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swanson, Charles H.

    Rapidly changing organizational systems and individual demands, as outlined by Alvin Toffler in "Future Shock," call for a unique flexibility in change strategies. Although theatre, as reflected in the degree of support by the national budget, is not considered a high priority item, it can provide a valuable social function. With the increasing…

  3. Hybrid vehicle potential assessment. Volume 7. Hybrid vehicle review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leschly, K.O.

    1979-09-30

    Review of hybrid vehicles (HVs) built during the past ten years or planned to be built in the near future is presented. An attempt is made to classify and analyze these vehicles to get an overall picture of their key characteristics. The review includes on-road hybrid passenger cars, trucks, vans, and buses.

  4. T2* mapping for articular cartilage assessment: principles, current applications, and future prospects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hesper, Tobias; Bittersohl, Daniela; Krauspe, Ruediger; Zilkens, Christoph [University Duesseldorf, Department of Orthopaedics Medical Faculty, Duesseldorf (Germany); Hosalkar, Harish S. [Center of Hip Preservation and Children' s Orthopaedics, San Diego, CA (United States); Welsch, Goetz H. [Medical University of Vienna, MR Center, Department of Radiology, Vienna (Austria); Bittersohl, Bernd [University Duesseldorf, Department of Orthopaedics Medical Faculty, Duesseldorf (Germany); Heinrich-Heine University, Medical School, Department of Orthopaedics, Duesseldorf (Germany)

    2014-10-15

    With advances in joint preservation surgery that are intended to alter the course of osteoarthritis by early intervention, accurate and reliable assessment of the cartilage status is critical. Biochemically sensitive MRI techniques can add robust biomarkers for disease onset and progression, and therefore, could be meaningful assessment tools for the diagnosis and follow-up of cartilage abnormalities. T2* mapping could be a good alternative because it would combine the benefits of biochemical cartilage evaluation with remarkable features including short imaging time and the ability of high-resolution three-dimensional cartilage evaluation - without the need for contrast media administration or special hardware. Several in vitro and in vivo studies, which have elaborated on the potential of cartilage T2* assessment in various cartilage disease patterns and grades of degeneration, have been reported. However, much remains to be understood and certain unresolved questions have become apparent with these studies that are crucial to the further application of this technique. This review summarizes the principles of the technique and current applications of T2* mapping for articular cartilage assessment. Limitations of recent studies are discussed and the potential implications for patient care are presented. (orig.)

  5. T2* mapping for articular cartilage assessment: principles, current applications, and future prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hesper, Tobias; Hosalkar, Harish S; Bittersohl, Daniela; Welsch, Götz H; Krauspe, Rüdiger; Zilkens, Christoph; Bittersohl, Bernd

    2014-10-01

    With advances in joint preservation surgery that are intended to alter the course of osteoarthritis by early intervention, accurate and reliable assessment of the cartilage status is critical. Biochemically sensitive MRI techniques can add robust biomarkers for disease onset and progression, and therefore, could be meaningful assessment tools for the diagnosis and follow-up of cartilage abnormalities. T2* mapping could be a good alternative because it would combine the benefits of biochemical cartilage evaluation with remarkable features including short imaging time and the ability of high-resolution three-dimensional cartilage evaluation-without the need for contrast media administration or special hardware. Several in vitro and in vivo studies, which have elaborated on the potential of cartilage T2* assessment in various cartilage disease patterns and grades of degeneration, have been reported. However, much remains to be understood and certain unresolved questions have become apparent with these studies that are crucial to the further application of this technique. This review summarizes the principles of the technique and current applications of T2* mapping for articular cartilage assessment. Limitations of recent studies are discussed and the potential implications for patient care are presented.

  6. Assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abah, Roland Clement; Petja, Brilliant Mareme

    2016-12-01

    Agriculture in the Lower Benue River Basin faces several challenges which threaten the future of agricultural development. This study was an assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin. Through analysis of physical and socioeconomic parameters, the study adapted an impact assessment model to rank potential impacts on agricultural development in the study area. Rainfall intensity seemed to be increasing with a gradual reduction in the number of rainy days. The average discharge at Makurdi hydrological station was 3468.24 cubic metres per second (m(3) s(-1)), and the highest peak flow discharge was 16,400 m(3) s(-1). The daily maximum temperature and annual temperature averages for the study area are gradually rising leading to increased heat stress. Physical and chemical analyses showed that the soils are moderately fertile but require effective application of inorganic and organic fertilisers. The main occupational activities in the study area are agricultural based. The identified potential impacts of climate change on agriculture were categorised under atmospheric carbon dioxides and oxides, rainfall intensity, frequency of floods and droughts, temperature intensity and variation, heat stress, surface water trends, and soil quality and fertility. The identified potential impacts related to population dynamics on agriculture were categorised under population growth, rural-urban migration, household income and infectious diseases and HIV and AIDS. Community-level mitigation strategies were proffered. Policy makers are advised to promote irrigation farming, support farmers with farm inputs and credit facilities and establish active agricultural extension services to support the sustainable development of agriculture.

  7. ASSESSING CHEMICAL HAZARDS AT THE PLUTONIUM FINISHING PLANT (PFP) FOR PLANNING FUTURE D&D

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HOPKINS, A.M.; KLOS, D.B.; MINETT, M.J.

    2007-01-25

    This paper documents the fiscal year (FY) 2006 assessment to evaluate potential chemical and radiological hazards associated with vessels and piping in the former plutonium process areas at Hanford's Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP). Evaluations by PFP engineers as design authorities for specific systems and other subject-matter experts were conducted to identify the chemical hazards associated with transitioning the process areas for the long-term layup of PFP before its eventual final decontamination and decommissioning (D and D). D and D activities in the main process facilities were suspended in September 2005 for a period of between 5 and 10 years. A previous assessment conducted in FY 2003 found that certain activities to mitigate chemical hazards could be deferred safely until the D and D of PFP, which had been scheduled to result in a slab-on-grade condition by 2009. As a result of necessary planning changes, however, D and D activities at PFP will be delayed until after the 2009 time frame. Given the extended project and plant life, it was determined that a review of the plant chemical hazards should be conducted. This review to determine the extended life impact of chemicals is called the ''Plutonium Finishing Plant Chemical Hazards Assessment, FY 2006''. This FY 2006 assessment addresses potential chemical and radiological hazard areas identified by facility personnel and subject-matter experts who reevaluated all the chemical systems (items) from the FY 2003 assessment. This paper provides the results of the FY 2006 chemical hazards assessment and describes the methodology used to assign a hazard ranking to the items reviewed.

  8. Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; van Rompaey, Anton J. J.; Pagé, Christian; de Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A.

    2016-11-01

    Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by taking interactions between climate, land use and soil type into account. We conclude that climate change will have a much bigger influence on future SOC losses in mid-latitude mineral soils than land use change dynamics. Hence, reducing CO2 emissions will be crucial to prevent further loss of carbon from our soils.

  9. Redefining the potential applications of dental stem cells: An asset for future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shalu Rai

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent exciting discoveries isolated dental stem cells from the pulp of the primary and permanent teeth, from the periodontal ligament, and from associated healthy tissues. Dental pulp stem cells (DPSCs represent a kind of adult cell colony which has the potent capacity of self-renewing and multilineage differentiation. Stem cell-based tooth engineering is deemed as a promising approach to the making of a biological tooth (bio-tooth or engineering of functional tooth structures. Dental professionals have the opportunity to make their patients aware of these new sources of stem cells that can be stored for future use as new therapies are developed for a range of diseases and injuries. The aim of this article is to review and understand how dental stem cells are being used for regeneration of oral and conversely nonoral tissues. A brief review on banking is also done for storing of these valuable stem cells for future use.

  10. Assessing environmental impacts of offshore wind farms: lessons learned and recommendations for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Helen; Brookes, Kate L; Thompson, Paul M

    2014-01-01

    Offshore wind power provides a valuable source of renewable energy that can help reduce carbon emissions. Technological advances are allowing higher capacity turbines to be installed and in deeper water, but there is still much that is unknown about the effects on the environment. Here we describe the lessons learned based on the recent literature and our experience with assessing impacts of offshore wind developments on marine mammals and seabirds, and make recommendations for future monitoring and assessment as interest in offshore wind energy grows around the world. The four key lessons learned that we discuss are: 1) Identifying the area over which biological effects may occur to inform baseline data collection and determining the connectivity between key populations and proposed wind energy sites, 2) The need to put impacts into a population level context to determine whether they are biologically significant, 3) Measuring responses to wind farm construction and operation to determine disturbance effects and avoidance responses, and 4) Learn from other industries to inform risk assessments and the effectiveness of mitigation measures. As the number and size of offshore wind developments increases, there will be a growing need to consider the population level consequences and cumulative impacts of these activities on marine species. Strategically targeted data collection and modeling aimed at answering questions for the consenting process will also allow regulators to make decisions based on the best available information, and achieve a balance between climate change targets and environmental legislation.

  11. Promoting Behavior Change from Alcohol Use through Mobile Technology: The Future of Ecological Momentary Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohn, Amy M.; Hunter-Reel, Dorian; Hagman, Brett T.; Mitchell, Jessica

    2011-01-01

    Background Interactive and mobile technologies (i.e., smartphones such as Blackberries, iPhones, and palm-top computers) show promise as an efficacious and cost-effective means of communicating health-behavior risks, improving public health outcomes, and accelerating behavior change (Abroms and Maibach, 2008). The present study was conducted as a “needs assessment” to examine the current available mobile smartphone applications (e.g., apps) that utilize principles of ecological momentary assessment (EMA) -- daily self-monitoring or near real-time self-assessment of alcohol use behavior -- to promote positive behavior change, alcohol harm reduction, psycho-education about alcohol use, or abstinence from alcohol. Methods Data were collected and analyzed from iTunes for Apple iPhone©. An inventory assessed the number of available apps that directly addressed alcohol use and consumption, alcohol treatment, or recovery, and whether these apps incorporated empirically-based components of alcohol treatment. Results Findings showed that few apps addressed alcohol use behavior change or recovery. Aside from tracking drinking consumption, a minority utilized empirically-based components of alcohol treatment. Some apps claimed they could serve as an intervention, however no empirical evidence was provided. Conclusions More studies are needed to examine the efficacy of mobile technology in alcohol intervention studies. The large gap between availability of mobile apps and their use in alcohol treatment programs indicate several important future directions for research. PMID:21689119

  12. The Current and Future Role of Heart Rate Variability for Assessing and Training Compassion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirby, James N.; Doty, James R.; Petrocchi, Nicola; Gilbert, Paul

    2017-01-01

    The evolution of mammalian caregiving involving hormones, such as oxytocin, vasopressin, and the myelinated vagal nerve as part of the ventral parasympathetic system, enables humans to connect, co-regulate each other’s emotions and create prosociality. Compassion-based interventions draw upon a number of specific exercises and strategies to stimulate these physiological processes and create conditions of “interpersonal safeness,” thereby helping people engage with, alleviate, and prevent suffering. Hence, compassion-based approaches are connected with our evolved caring motivation and attachment and our general affiliative systems that help regulate distress. Physiologically, they are connected to activity of the vagus nerve and corresponding adaptive heart rate variability (HRV). HRV is an important physiological marker for overall health, and the body–mind connection. Therefore, there is significant value of training compassion to increase HRV and training HRV to facilitate compassion. Despite the significance of compassion in alleviating and preventing suffering, there remain difficulties in its precise assessment. HRV offers a useful form of measurement to assess and train compassion. Specific examples of what exercises can facilitate HRV and how to measure HRV will be described. This paper argues that the field of compassion science needs to move toward including HRV as a primary outcome measure in its future assessment and training, due to its connection to vagal regulatory activity, and its link to overall health and well-being. PMID:28337432

  13. The Future Nuclear Arms Control Agenda and Its Potential Implications for the Air Force

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    process aims to build habits of cooperation between the militaries and officials of the United States and China. There has been progress in pursuit of...impacts on China’s nuclear posture. Other statements have stressed that China’s future nuclear modernization is linked to the U.S.-China offense-defense...unique backgrounds. Such an oral history could be done with a mix of workshops, one-on-one interviews, and responses to written questions. Once

  14. 77 FR 31353 - An Assessment of Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, AK

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-25

    ... AGENCY An Assessment of Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, AK AGENCY... of Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, Alaska'' (EPA-910-R-12-004a-d). The... draft ``An Assessment of Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, Alaska''...

  15. Assessment of storm surge disaster potential for the Andaman Islands

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Kumar, V.S.; RameshBabu, V.; Babu, M.T.; Dhinakaran, G.; Rajamanickam, G.V.

    of the phenomenon, at least at the basic level and confidence in the authority responsible for warning. Predisaster Mitigation and Risk Assessment Plan The important factors in a predisaster management plan are detailed studies of the topography of the region... and enforce modern construction practice and planning in coastal set- tlements. Predisaster Management Strategy ● Assess the risk for the entire coastal belt under the threat of a cyclone. ● Collect the historic cyclone data for cyclones that have pro- duced...

  16. Assessing future vegetation trends and restoration prospects in the Karst regions of Southwest China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tong, Xiaowei; Wang, Kelin; Brandt, Martin Stefan;

    2016-01-01

    To alleviate the severe rocky desertification and improve the ecological conditions in Southwest China, the national and local Chinese governments have implemented a series of Ecological Restoration Projects since the late 1990s. In this context, remote sensing can be a valuable tool for conserva......To alleviate the severe rocky desertification and improve the ecological conditions in Southwest China, the national and local Chinese governments have implemented a series of Ecological Restoration Projects since the late 1990s. In this context, remote sensing can be a valuable tool...... are utilized. The proposed framework of this analysis has been proven to work well for assessing restoration prospects in the study area, and due to the generic design, the method is expected to be applicable for other areas of complex landscapes in the world to explore future trends of vegetation....

  17. Information resources for assessing health effects from chemical exposure: Challenges, priorities, and future issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seigel, S. [National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD (United States)

    1990-12-31

    Issues related to developing information resources for assessing the health effects from chemical exposure include the question of how to address the individual political issues relevant to identifying and determining the timeliness, scientific credibility, and completeness of such kinds of information resources. One of the important ways for agencies to share information is through connection tables. This type of software is presently being used to build information products for some DHHS agencies. One of the challenges will be to convince vendors of data of the importance of trying to make data files available to communities that need them. In the future, information processing will be conducted with neural networks, object-oriented database management systems, and fuzzy-set technologies, and meta analysis techniques.

  18. Assessing the impact of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Z.

    2015-12-01

    Future climate changes will place big challenges to the US agricultural system, among which increasing heat stress and precipitation variability were the two major concerns. Reliable prediction of crop productions in response to the increasingly frequent and severe extreme climate is a prerequisite for developing adaptive strategies on agricultural risk management. However, the progress has been slow on quantifying the uncertainty of computational predictions at high spatial resolutions. Here we assessed the risks of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM) model under different climate scenarios. To quantify the uncertainty due to conceptual representations of heat, drought and flooding stress in crop models, we proposed a new strategy of algorithm ensemble in which different methods for simulating crop responses to those extreme climatic events were incorporated into the APSIM. This strategy allowed us to isolate irrelevant structure differences among existing crop models but only focus on the process of interest. Future climate inputs were derived from high-spatial-resolution (12km × 12km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) and 8.5 (RCP 8.5). Based on crop model simulations, we analyzed the magnitude and frequency of heat, drought and flooding stress for the 21st century. We also evaluated the water use efficiency and water deficit on regional scales if farmers were to boost their yield by applying more fertilizers. Finally we proposed spatially explicit adaptation strategies of irrigation and fertilizing for different management zones.

  19. Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-08-01

    OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants.

  20. Scenarios of Future Water use on Mediterranean Islands based on an Integrated Assessment of Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, M. A.

    2006-12-01

    The availability of water in sufficient quantities and adequate quality presents considerable problems on Mediterranean islands. Because of their isolation and thus the impossibility to draw on more distant or more divers aquifers, they rely entirely on precipitation as natural replenishing mechanism. Recent observations indicate decreasing precipitation, increasing evaporation and steadily growing demand for water on the islands. Future climate change will exacerbate this problem, thus increasing the already pertinent vulnerability to droughts. Responsible planning of water management strategies requires scenarios of future supply and demand through an integrated assessment including climate scenarios based on regional climate modeling as well as scenarios on changes in societal and economical determinants of water demand. Constructing such strategies necessitates a thorough understanding about the interdependencies and feedbacks between physical/hydrological and socio-economic determinants of water balances on an island. This has to be based on a solid understanding of past and present developments of these drivers. In the framework of the EU-funded MEDIS project (Towards sustainable water use on Mediterranean Islands: addressing conflicting demands and varying hydrological, social and economic conditions, EVK1-CT-2001-00092), detailed investigations on present vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies to droughts have been carried out on Mallorca, Corsica, Sicily, Crete and Cyprus. This was based on an interdisciplinary study design including hydrological, geophysical, agricultural-, social and political sciences investigations. A central element of the study has been the close interaction with stakeholders on the islands and their contribution to strategy formulation. An important result has been a specification of vulnerability components including: a physical/environmental-, an economical/regulatory- and a social/institutional/political component. Their

  1. Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holman, I P; Brown, C; Janes, V; Sandars, D

    2017-02-01

    The global land system is facing unprecedented pressures from growing human populations and climatic change. Understanding the effects these pressures may have is necessary to designing land management strategies that ensure food security, ecosystem service provision and successful climate mitigation and adaptation. However, the number of complex, interacting effects involved makes any complete understanding very difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, the recent development of integrated modelling frameworks allows for the exploration of the co-development of human and natural systems under scenarios of global change, potentially illuminating the main drivers and processes in future land system change. Here, we use one such integrated modelling framework (the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform) to investigate the range of projected outcomes in the European land system across climatic and socio-economic scenarios for the 2050s. We find substantial consistency in locations and types of change even under the most divergent conditions, with results suggesting that climate change alone will lead to a contraction in the agricultural and forest area within Europe, particularly in southern Europe. This is partly offset by the introduction of socioeconomic changes that change both the demand for agricultural production, through changing food demand and net imports, and the efficiency of agricultural production. Simulated extensification and abandonment in the Mediterranean region is driven by future decreases in the relative profitability of the agricultural sector in southern Europe, owing to decreased productivity as a consequence of increased heat and drought stress and reduced irrigation water availability. The very low likelihood (land use proportions in many parts of Europe will remain unchanged suggests that future policy should seek to promote and support the multifunctional role of agriculture and forests in different European regions, rather than focusing on

  2. Futures Analysis of Urban Land Use and Wetland Change in Saskatoon, Canada: An Application in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anton Sizo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a scenario-based approach to strategic environmental assessment (SEA for wetland trend analysis and land use and land cover (LUC modeling in an urban environment. The application is focused on the Saskatoon urban environment, a rapidly growing urban municipality in Canada’s prairie pothole region. Alternative future LUC was simulated using remote sensing data and city spatial planning documentation using a Markov Chain technique. Two alternatives were developed and compared for LUC change and threats to urban wetland sustainability: a zero alternative that simulated trends in urban development and wetland conservation under a business as usual scenario, in the absence of prescribed planning and zoning actions; and an alternative focused on implementation of current urban development plans, which simulated future LUC to account for prescribed wetland conservation strategies. Results show no improvement in future wetland conditions under the city’s planned growth and wetland conservation scenario versus the business as usual scenario. Results also indicate that a blanket wetland conservation strategy for the city may not be sufficient to overcome the historic trend of urban wetland loss; and that spatially distributed conservation rates, based on individual wetland water catchment LUC peculiarities, may be more effective in terms of wetland conservation. The paper also demonstrates the challenges to applied SEA in a rapidly changing urban planning context, where data are often sparse and inconsistent across the urban region, and provides potential solutions through LUC classification and prediction tools to help overcome data limitations to support land use planning decisions for wetland conservation.

  3. Current situation and future potential of further integration between UK and EU

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    The article analyses potential consequences of Brexit as well as the current costs and benefits of UK’s membership in the EU, furthermore focusing on alternative agreements that may result between the members.

  4. Potential Areas of Future Oil and Gas Development, Greater Wattenberg Area, Front Range of Colorado (friogdevu)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The potential for oil and gas development in the greater Wattenberg area (GWA), which lies near the Front Range between Denver and Greeley, Colo., in the Denver...

  5. A Multivariate and Probabilistic Assessment of Drought in the Pacific Northwest under Observed and Future Climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortuza, M. R.; Demissie, Y. K.

    2015-12-01

    In lieu with the recent and anticipated more server and frequently droughts incidences in Yakima River Basin (YRB), a reliable and comprehensive drought assessment is deemed necessary to avoid major crop production loss and better manage the water right issues in the region during low precipitation and/or snow accumulation years. In this study, we have conducted frequency analysis of hydrological droughts and quantified associated uncertainty in the YRB under both historical and changing climate. Streamflow drought index (SDI) was employed to identify mutually correlated drought characteristics (e.g., severity, duration and peak). The historical and future characteristics of drought were estimated by applying tri-variate copulas probability distribution, which effectively describe the joint distribution and dependence of drought severity, duration, and peak. The associated prediction uncertainty, related to parameters of the joint probability and climate projections, were evaluated using the Bayesian approach with bootstrap resampling. For the climate change scenarios, two future representative pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from University of Idaho's Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) database were considered. The results from the study are expected to provide useful information towards drought risk management in YRB under anticipated climate changes.

  6. Systematic high-resolution assessment of global hydropower potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Giesen, Nick C.

    2017-01-01

    Population growth, increasing energy demand and the depletion of fossil fuel reserves necessitate a search for sustainable alternatives for electricity generation. Hydropower could replace a large part of the contribution of gas and oil to the present energy mix. However, previous high-resolution estimates of hydropower potential have been local, and have yet to be applied on a global scale. This study is the first to formally present a detailed evaluation of the hydropower potential of each location, based on slope and discharge of each river in the world. The gross theoretical hydropower potential is approximately 52 PWh/year divided over 11.8 million locations. This 52 PWh/year is equal to 33% of the annually required energy, while the present energy production by hydropower plants is just 3% of the annually required energy. The results of this study: all potentially interesting locations for hydroelectric power plants, are available online. PMID:28178329

  7. Assessment of potential contaminant threats to Iroquois National Wildlife Refuge

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The primary purpose of the NBS Manual is to provide a standardized and systematic approach for identifying existing or potential contaminant problems on National...

  8. Magnetic stimulation of muscle evokes cerebral potentials in assessment of paraspinal muscle spasm.

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1998-01-01

    Objectlve: To assess the muscle spasm by magnetic stimulation of muscle evokes cerebral potentials (MMSEP). Methods: Paraspinal MMSEP and function assessment was recorded in detail before and after treat-

  9. Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gårdmark, Anna; Lindegren, Martin; Neuenfeldt, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    trajectories carried through to uncertainty of cod responses. Models ignoring the feedback from prey on cod showed large interannual fluctuations in cod dynamics and were more sensitive to the underlying uncertainty of climate forcing than models accounting for such stabilizing predator–prey feedbacks. Yet......Natural resource management requires approaches to understand and handle sources of uncertainty in future responses of complex systems to human activities. Here we present one such approach, the “biological ensemble modeling approach,” using the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias...

  10. Analyzing Potential Grid Impacts from Future In-Motion Roadway Wireless Power Transfer Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meintz, Andrew; Gonder, Jeffrey; Jorgenson, Jennie; Brooker, Aaron

    2017-01-01

    This work examines the grid impact of in-motion roadway wireless power transfer through the examination of the electrification of high-capacity roadways inside a metropolitan area. The work uses data from a regional travel study and the Federal Highway Administration's Highway Performance Monitoring System to estimate the electrified roadway's hourly power use throughout a week. The data are then combined with hourly grid load estimates for the same metropolitan area to determine the overlay of traditional grid load with additional load from a future electrified roadway.

  11. Analyzing Potential Grid Impacts from Future In-Motion Roadway Wireless Power Transfer Scenarios: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meintz, Andrew; Gonder, Jeffrey; Jorgenson, Jennie; Brooker, Aaron

    2016-08-01

    This work examines the grid impact of in-motion roadway wireless power transfer through the examination of the electrification of high-capacity roadways inside a metropolitan area. The work uses data from a regional travel study and the Federal Highway Administration's Highway Performance Monitoring System to estimate the electrified roadway's hourly power use throughout a week. The data are then combined with hourly grid load estimates for the same metropolitan area to determine the overlay of traditional grid load with additional load from a future electrified roadway.

  12. Coastal Change Potential (CPI) Assessment of Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore (indu_shore)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A coastal change potential index (CPI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future lake-level change within Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore in...

  13. Coastal Change Potential (CPI) Assessment of Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore (indu_shore)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A coastal change potential index (CPI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future lake-level change within Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore...

  14. Assessment of the potential for ferrocyanide propagating reaction accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meacham, J.E., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-07-03

    The risk posed by the continued storage of ferrocyanide wastes in Hanford Site underground storage tanks has been studied extensively using theoretical analyses, laboratory experiments,tank monitoring, and waste sampling. This report provides an assessment of this hazard and provides the technical basis to resolve the Ferrocyanide Safety Issue for the 18 tanks, and supports the removal of these tanks from the Watch List. Based on the assessment provided in this report, the ferrocyanide waste in all 18 of the current ferrocyanide Watch List tanks, is categorized as safe and cannot burn or explode.

  15. Assessing potential health effects from municipal sludge incinerators: screening methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fradkin, L.; Bruins, J.F.; Lutkenhoff, S.D.; Stara, J.F.; Lomnitz, E.; Rubin, A.

    1987-04-01

    This paper describes a risk assessment methodology for preliminary assessment of municipal sludge incineration. The methodology is a valuable tool in that it can be used for determining the hazard indices of chemical contaminants that might be present in sewage sludge used in incineration. The paper examines source characteristics (i.e., facility design), atmospheric dispersion of emission, and resulting human exposure and risk from sludge incinerators. Seven of the ten organics were screened for further investigation. An example of the calculations are presented for cadmium.

  16. Future Linear Colliders: Detector R&D, Jet Reconstruction and Top Physics Potential

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2098729; Ros Martinez, Eduardo

    During the 20th century, discoveries and measurements at colliders, combined with progress in theoretical physics, allowed us to formulate the Standard Model of the in- teractions between the constituents of matter. Today, there are two advanced projects for a new installation that will collide electrons and positrons covering an energy range from several hundreds of GeV to the multi-TeV scale, the International Linear Collider (ILC) and the Compact Linear Collider (CLIC). These Future Linear Colliders give the opportunity to study the top quark with unprecedented precision. Measurements of top quark properties are of special interest, as the top quark is the heaviest ele- mentary particle of the SM. Precision measurements of top quark properties at e+e colliders promise therefore to be highly sensitive to physics beyond the SM. This thesis has three complementary parts. The first is dedicated to the R&D of the ILD detector concept for future e+e- colliders, more precisely, the innermost region of the de...

  17. Assessment of future scenarios for wind erosion sensitivity changes based on ALADIN and REMO regional climate model simulation data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mezősi Gábor

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The changes in rate and pattern of wind erosion sensitivity due to climate change were investigated for 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 compared to the reference period (1961–1990 in Hungary. The sensitivities of the main influencing factors (soil texture, vegetation cover and climate factor were evaluated by fuzzy method and a combined wind erosion sensitivity map was compiled. The climate factor, as the driving factor of the changes, was assessed based on observed data for the reference period, while REMO and ALADIN regional climate model simulation data for the future periods. The changes in wind erosion sensitivity were evaluated on potentially affected agricultural land use types, and hot spot areas were allocated. Based on the results, 5–6% of the total agricultural areas were high sensitive areas in the reference period. In the 21st century slight or moderate changes of wind erosion sensitivity can be expected, and mostly ‘pastures’, ‘complex cultivation patterns’, and ‘land principally occupied by agriculture with significant areas of natural vegetation’ are affected. The applied combination of multi-indicator approach and fuzzy analysis provides novelty in the field of land sensitivity assessment. The method is suitable for regional scale analysis of wind erosion sensitivity changes and supports regional planning by allocating priority areas where changes in agro-technics or land use have to be considered.

  18. Assessment of future scenarios for wind erosion sensitivity changes based on ALADIN and REMO regional climate model simulation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mezősi, Gábor; Blanka, Viktória; Bata, Teodóra; Ladányi, Zsuzsanna; Kemény, Gábor; Meyer, Burghard C.

    2016-07-01

    The changes in rate and pattern of wind erosion sensitivity due to climate change were investigated for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 compared to the reference period (1961-1990) in Hungary. The sensitivities of the main influencing factors (soil texture, vegetation cover and climate factor) were evaluated by fuzzy method and a combined wind erosion sensitivity map was compiled. The climate factor, as the driving factor of the changes, was assessed based on observed data for the reference period, while REMO and ALADIN regional climate model simulation data for the future periods. The changes in wind erosion sensitivity were evaluated on potentially affected agricultural land use types, and hot spot areas were allocated. Based on the results, 5-6% of the total agricultural areas were high sensitive areas in the reference period. In the 21st century slight or moderate changes of wind erosion sensitivity can be expected, and mostly `pastures', `complex cultivation patterns', and `land principally occupied by agriculture with significant areas of natural vegetation' are affected. The applied combination of multi-indicator approach and fuzzy analysis provides novelty in the field of land sensitivity assessment. The method is suitable for regional scale analysis of wind erosion sensitivity changes and supports regional planning by allocating priority areas where changes in agro-technics or land use have to be considered.

  19. Potential for Incorporation of Genetic Polymorphism Data in Human Health Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This overview summarizes several EPA assessment publications evaluating the potential impact of genetic polymorphisms in ten metabolizing enzymes on the variability in enzyme function across ethnically diverse populations.

  20. Assessing Sensitivity to Unmeasured Confounding Using a Simulated Potential Confounder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnegie, Nicole Bohme; Harada, Masataka; Hill, Jennifer L.

    2016-01-01

    A major obstacle to developing evidenced-based policy is the difficulty of implementing randomized experiments to answer all causal questions of interest. When using a nonexperimental study, it is critical to assess how much the results could be affected by unmeasured confounding. We present a set of graphical and numeric tools to explore the…

  1. Meeting the global food demand of the future by engineering crop photosynthesis and yield potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Stephen P; Marshall-Colon, Amy; Zhu, Xin-Guang

    2015-03-26

    Increase in demand for our primary foodstuffs is outstripping increase in yields, an expanding gap that indicates large potential food shortages by mid-century. This comes at a time when yield improvements are slowing or stagnating as the approaches of the Green Revolution reach their biological limits. Photosynthesis, which has been improved little in crops and falls far short of its biological limit, emerges as the key remaining route to increase the genetic yield potential of our major crops. Thus, there is a timely need to accelerate our understanding of the photosynthetic process in crops to allow informed and guided improvements via in-silico-assisted genetic engineering. Potential and emerging approaches to improving crop photosynthetic efficiency are discussed, and the new tools needed to realize these changes are presented.

  2. Mountain Home Air Force Base, Idaho Geothermal Resource Assessment and Future Recommendations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joseph C. Armstrong; Robert P. Breckenridge; Dennis L. Nielson; John W. Shervais; Thomas R. Wood

    2013-03-01

    The U.S. Air Force is facing a number of challenges as it moves into the future, one of the biggest being how to provide safe and secure energy to support base operations. A team of scientists and engineers met at Mountain Home Air Force Base in early 2011 near Boise, Idaho, to discuss the possibility of exploring for geothermal resources under the base. The team identified that there was a reasonable potential for geothermal resources based on data from an existing well. In addition, a regional gravity map helped identify several possible locations for drilling a new well. The team identified several possible sources of funding for this well—the most logical being to use U.S. Department of Energy funds to drill the upper half of the well and U.S. Air Force funds to drill the bottom half of the well. The well was designed as a slimhole well in accordance with State of Idaho Department of Water Resources rules and regulations. Drilling operations commenced at the Mountain Home site in July of 2011 and were completed in January of 2012. Temperatures increased gradually, especially below a depth of 2000 ft. Temperatures increased more rapidly below a depth of 5500 ft. The bottom of the well is at 5976 ft, where a temperature of about 140°C was recorded. The well flowed artesian from a depth below 5600 ft, until it was plugged off with drilling mud. Core samples were collected from the well and are being analyzed to help understand permeability at depth. Additional tests using a televiewer system will be run to evaluate orientation and directions at fractures, especially in the production zone. A final report on the well exploitation will be forthcoming later this year. The Air Force will use it to evaluate the geothermal resource potential for future private development options at Mountain Home Air Force Base. In conclusion, Recommendation for follow-up efforts include the following:

  3. THE ASSESSMENT OF ENTREPRENEURIAL PERSONALITY: THE CURRENT SITUATION AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Suárez-Álvarez

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Entrepreneurship is fundamental in modern society because it represents an important source of innovation, employment, productivity, and growth. While the first theoretical models arose from economic and sociological approaches, psychology provides models that integrate different aspects such as cognitions, attitudes and personality, which allow a more detailed study. The purpose of this paper is to show the main contributions of psychology to the assessment of the enterprising personality. For this purpose, the main models and instruments developed to date were reviewed. The results confirm that the enterprising personality has a multidimensional structure and eight personality traits can be highlighted: achievement motivation, risk-taking, autonomy, self-efficacy, stress tolerance, innovativeness, internal locus of control, and optimism. From a methodological point of view, Item Response Theory and Computerised Adaptive Tests represent the most advanced and modern methods for assessing enterprising personality. There are currently several measurement instruments available. Future areas of research should be directed at the construction of multidimensional models as well as providing alternatives that facilitate a reduction in social desirability and other biases inherent in self-reports.

  4. Macro-economic assessment of flood risk in Italy under current and future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrera, Lorenzo; Koks, Elco; Mysiak, Jaroslav; Aerts, Jeroen; Standardi, Gabriele

    2014-05-01

    This paper explores an integrated methodology for assessing direct and indirect costs of fluvial flooding to estimate current and future fluvial flood risk in Italy. Our methodology combines a Geographic Information System spatial approach, with a general economic equilibrium approach using a downscaled modified version of a Computable General Equilibrium model at NUTS2 scale. Given the level of uncertainty in the behavior of disaster-affected economies, the simulation considers a wide range of business recovery periods. We calculate expected annual losses for each NUTS2 region, and exceedence probability curves to determine probable maximum losses. Given a certain acceptable level of risk, we describe the conditions of flood protection and business recovery periods under which losses are contained within this limit. Because of the difference between direct costs, which are an overestimation of stock losses, and indirect costs, which represent the macro-economic effects, our results have different policy meanings. While the former is relevant for post-disaster recovery, the latter is more relevant for public policy issues, particularly for cost-benefit analysis and resilience assessment.

  5. Assessment of Soil Liquefaction Potential Based on Numerical Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Choobasti, A. Janalizadeh; Vahdatirad, Mohammad Javad; Torabi, M.

    2012-01-01

    simplified method have been developed over the years. Although simplified methods are available in calculating the liquefaction potential of a soil deposit and shear stresses induced at any point in the ground due to earthquake loading, these methods cannot be applied to all earthquakes with the same...... accuracy, also they lack the potential to predict the pore pressure developed in the soil. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out a ground response analysis to obtain pore pressures and shear stresses in the soil due to earthquake loading. Using soil historical, geological and compositional criteria......, a zone of the corridor of Tabriz urban railway line 2 susceptible to liquefaction was recognized. Then, using numerical analysis and cyclic stress method using QUAKE/W finite element code, soil liquefaction potential in susceptible zone was evaluated based on design earthquake....

  6. Public Review Draft: A Method for Assessing Carbon Stocks, Carbon Sequestration, and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes in Ecosystems of the United States Under Present Conditions and Future Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Robert G.; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2010-01-01

    The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, authorizes the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation's ecosystems focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, shrub and grasslands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries), (2) an estimation of annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities), and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land use and land cover, and wildlfires. The purpose of this draft methodology for public review is to propose a technical plan to conduct the assessment. Within the methodology, the concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes used for the assessment follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess future potential conditions based on a set of projected scenarios. The scenario framework is constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with initial reference land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management scenarios. An additional three LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each

  7. Modelling soil organic carbon in Danish agricultural soils suggests low potential for future carbon sequestration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taghizadeh-Toosi, Arezoo; Olesen, Jørgen Eivind

    2016-01-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) is in active exchange with the atmosphere. The amount of organic carbon (OC) input into the soil and SOC turnover rate are important for predicting the carbon (C) sequestration potential of soils subject to changes in land-use and climate. The C-TOOL model was developed...

  8. Crowdsourcing for climate and atmospheric sciences: current status and future potential

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Muller, C.L.; Chapman, L.; Johnston, S.; Kidd, C.; Illingworth, S.; Foody, G.; Overeem, A.; Leigh, R.R.

    2015-01-01

    Crowdsourcing is traditionally defined as obtaining data or information by enlisting the services of a (potentially large) number of people. However, due to recent innovations, this definition can now be expanded to include ‘and/or from a range of public sensors, typically connected via the Internet

  9. Realistic Energy Saving Potential of Sleep Mode for Existing and Future Mobile Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Micallef, Gilbert; Saker, Louai; Elayoubi, Salah Eddine;

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an extensive overview on an energy saving feature referred to as ‘site sleep mode’, designed for existing and future mobile broadband networks. In addition to providing a detailed understanding of the main concept, the paper also provides various studies and results to highlight...... going through a number of different alternatives of the feature, this is applied to different network topologies, macro-only based networks, and a set of heterogeneous networks that employ the use of small cells in traffic hotspots. Results obtained through detailed case studies show that sleep mode can...... reduce the average daily energy consumption of a network by around 30%. This can be achieved while maintaining a predefined level of performance, used as a measure of comparing different scenarios....

  10. Impact of future climatic conditions on the potential for soil organic matter priming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reinsch, Sabine; Ambus, Per; Thornton, Barry

    2013-01-01

    Terrestrial carbon (C) storage and turnover are of major interest under changing climatic conditions. We present a laboratory microcosm study investigating the effects of anticipated climatic conditions on the soil microbial community and related changes in soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition....... Soil samples were taken from a heath-land after six years of exposure to elevated carbon dioxide (eCO2) in combination with summer drought (D) and increased temperature (T). Soil C-dynamics were investigated in soils from: (i) ambient, (ii) eCO2, and (iii) plots exposed to the combination of factors...... simulating future climatic conditions (TDeCO2) that simulate conditions predicted for Denmark in 2075. 13C enriched glucose (3 atom% excess) was added to soil microcosms, soil CO2 efflux was measured over a period of two weeks and separated into glucose- and SOM-derived C. Microbial biomass was measured...

  11. State Support for Clean Energy Deployment: Lessons Learned for Potential Future Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kubert, C.; Sinclair, M.

    2011-04-01

    Proposed federal clean energy initiatives and climate legislation have suggested significant increases to federal funding for clean energy deployment and investment. Many states and utilities have over a decade of experience and spend billions of public dollars every year to support EE/RE deployment through programs that reduce the cost of technologies, provide financing for EE/RE projects, offer technical assistance, and educate market participants. Meanwhile, constraints on public expenditures at all levels of government continue to call upon such programs to demonstrate their value. This report reviews the results of these programs and the specific financial incentives and financing tools used to encourage clean energy investment. Lessons from such programs could be used to inform the future application of EE/RE incentives and financing tools. These lessons learned apply to use of distributed resources and the historical focus of these EE/RE programs.

  12. State Support for Clean Energy Deployment. Lessons Learned for Potential Future Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kubert, Charles [Clean Energy States Alliance, Montpelier, VT (United States); Sinclair, Mark [Clean Energy States Alliance, Montpelier, VT (United States)

    2011-04-01

    Proposed federal clean energy initiatives and climate legislation have suggested significant increases to federal funding for clean energy deployment and investment. Many states and utilities have over a decade of experience and spend billions of public dollars every year to support EE/RE deployment through programs that reduce the cost of technologies, provide financing for EE/RE projects, offer technical assistance, and educate market participants. Meanwhile, constraints on public expenditures at all levels of government continue to call upon such programs to demonstrate their value. This report reviews the results of these programs and the specific financial incentives and financing tools used to encourage clean energy investment. Lessons from such programs could be used to inform the future application of EE/RE incentives and financing tools. These lessons learned apply to use of distributed resources and the historical focus of these EE/RE programs.

  13. Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate...... extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective...... which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence...

  14. Assessment of thermal bioclimate and tourism climate potential for central Europe—the example of Luxembourg

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matzarakis, Andreas; Rammelberg, Joscha; Junk, Jürgen

    2013-10-01

    Tourism destinations often require information about climate to assess their climate potential. This can be performed in terms of mean conditions of relevant climatological parameters. For a user-friendly analysis and visualization of climate data relevant for tourism application in Luxembourg, information is prepared based on the facets of climate in tourism. Information on thermal comfort/stress conditions as well as aesthetical and physical parameters is considered. In the present study, relevant and sensible factors were identified and presented. Therefore, physiologically equivalent temperature, precipitation patterns and the Climate-Tourism/Transfer-Information-Scheme are applied. In addition, extreme events relevant for heat stress are analysed based on existing data sets (i.e. heat waves of 2010). Expected climatic conditions for the future are investigated using the projections of two different regional climate models. The results concerning climate change conditions reveal increasing heat stress and sultriness but decreasing cold stress. This information is the basis for an adequate assessment to provide relevant information for different environmental planning issues as well as for the growing tourism sector of Luxembourg.

  15. Recent eruptive history of Mount Hood, Oregon, and potential hazards from future eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crandell, Dwight Raymond

    1980-01-01

    Each of three major eruptive periods at Mount Hood (12,000-15,000(?), 1,500-1,800, and 200-300 years ago) produced dacite domes, pyroclastic flows, and mudflows, but virtually no pumice. Most of the fine lithic ash that mantles the slopes of the volcano and the adjacent mountains fell from ash clouds that accompanied the pyroclastic flows. Widely scattered pumice lapilli that are present at the ground surface on the south, east, and north sides of Mount Hood may have been erupted during the mid-1800's, when the last known activity of the volcano occurred. The geologically recent history of Mount Hood suggests that the most likely eruptive event in the future will be the formation of another dome, probably within the present south-facing crater. The principal hazards that could accompany dome formation include pyroclastic flows and mudflows moving from the upper slopes of the volcano down the floors of valleys. Ash clouds which accompany pyroclastic flows may deposit as much as a meter of fine ash close to their source, and as much as 20 centimeters at a distance of 11 kilometers downwind from the pyroclastic flows. Other hazards that could result from such eruptions include laterally directed explosive blasts that could propel rock fragments outward from the sides of a dome at high speed, and toxic volcanic gases. The scarcity of pumiceous ash erupted during the last 15,000 years suggests that explosive pumice eruptions are not a major hazard at Mount Hood; thus, there seems to be little danger that such an eruption will significantly affect the Portland (Oregon) metropolitan area in the near future.

  16. Potential Bias in Projecting Future Regional Megadrought Risk: Insights From A Global Data-Model Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.; Ault, T.; Cole, J. E.; Fasullo, J.; Loope, G. R.; Parsons, L. A.; Stevenson, S.

    2015-12-01

    Megadrought is one of the most significant and costly climate extremes, and one that stakeholders (e.g., water and other resource managers) the world over wish to understand better; in particular, they need estimates of the risk of severe droughts as a function of drought frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. In many dry-climate regions of the globe, megadrought is synonymous with multi-decadal drought. However, in other regions, megadrought can be defined as extended drought, mostly not seen in the period of instrumental observations, and that would have large impacts if it were to occur in the future. New and published paleoclimatic observations allow us to understand the spectrum of drought in many regions of the globe; droughts exceeding 50 years have occurred in recent Earth history in southwestern North America, sub-Saharan Africa, the Mediterranean and Australia, whereas shorter megadroughts have occurred in Monsoon Asia, Amazonia and elsewhere. Data-model comparisons for regions with sufficiently long (e.g., 1000-2000 years) records of observed hydroclimatic variability suggest that state-of-the-art models can provide realistic estimates of interannual to decadal drought risk, but underestimate the risk of megadrought. Likely reasons for this shortcoming are the lack of sufficient multi-decadal variability in simulations of the past and future, plus an underappreciated understanding about how temperature variability and land-surface feedbacks interact with hydrological and ecological drought, as well as the roles played by unusually wet hydroclimatic extremes (e.g., ENSO related) in ending droughts of long duration. Paleoclimatic records also provide the opportunity to estimate how much models underestimate megadrought risk as a function of locale, frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration; they also aid in providing stakeholders with bias-corrected estimates of megadrought risk.

  17. Will dragonblood survive the next period of climate change? Current and future potential distribution of Dracaena cinnabari (Socotra, Yemen)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Attorre, F.; Francesconi, F.; Taleb, N.; Scholte, P.; Saed, A.; Alfo, M.; Bruno, F.

    2007-01-01

    The potential impact of climate change on Dracaena cinnabari, a spectacular relict of the Mio-Pliocene Laurasian subtropical forest in Socotra (Yemen), was analysed. Current distribution, abundance and vertical structure of D. cinnabari populations were assessed with 74 plots in nine remnant areas.

  18. Assessing the potential of change in urban infrastructure systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Susanne Balslev; Elle, Morten

    2000-01-01

    In order to understand the dynamics and the potential of change, urban infrastructure must be seen as socio-technical artefacts. The paper offers a methodology for analysing current infrastructure and a case study demonstrating that social relations plays a significant role as barriers of impleme...

  19. EADB: An Estrogenic Activity Database for Assessing Potential Endocrine Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endocrine-active chemicals can potentially have adverse effects on both humans and wildlife. They can interfere with the body’s endocrine system through direct or indirect interactions with many protein targets. Estrogen receptors (ERs) are one of the major targets, and many ...

  20. Low-Carbon Natural Gas for Transportation: Well-to-Wheels Emissions and Potential Market Assessment in California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Penev, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Melaina, Marc [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bush, Brian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Muratori, Matteo [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Warner, Ethan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Chen, Yuche [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-12-01

    This report improves on the understanding of the long-term technology potential of low-carbon natural gas (LCNG) supply pathways by exploring transportation market adoption potential through 2035 in California. Techno-economic assessments of each pathway are developed to compare the capacity, cost, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of select LCNG production pathways. The study analyzes the use of fuel from these pathways in light-, medium-, and heavy-duty vehicle applications. Economic and life-cycle GHG emissions analysis suggest that landfill gas resources are an attractive and relatively abundant resource in terms of cost and GHG reduction potential, followed by waste water treatment plants and biomass with gasification and methanation. Total LCNG production potential is on the order of total natural gas demand anticipated in a success scenario for future natural gas vehicle adoption by 2035 across light-, medium-, and heavy-duty vehicle markets (110 trillion Btu/year).

  1. Published assessments bearing on the future use of ceramic superconductors by the electric power sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giese, R.F.; Wolsky, A.M.

    1992-08-25

    Much has been written about ceramic superconductors since their discovery in 1986. Most of this writing reports and describes scientific research. However, some authors have sought to put this research in context: to assess where the field stands, what might be technically feasible, what might be economically feasible, and what potential impacts ceramic superconductors will bring to the electric power sector. This report's purpose is to make the results of already published assessments readily available. To that end, this report lists and provides abstracts for various technical and economic assessments related to applications of High-Temperature Superconductors (HTS) to the electric power sector. Those studies deemed most important are identified and summarized. These assessments were identified by two means. First, members of the Executive Committee identified some reports as worthy of consideration and forwarded them to Argonne National Laboratory. Twelve assessments were selected. Each of these is listed and summarized in the following section. Second, a bibliographic search was performed on five databases: INSPEC, NTIS, COMPENDEX, Energy Science Technology, and Electric Power Database. The search consisted of first selecting all papers related to High Temperature Superconductors. Then papers related to SMES, cables, generators, motors, fault current limiters, or electric utilities were selected. When suitable variants of the above terms were included, this resulted in a selection of 493 citations. These citations were subjected to review by the authors. A number of citations were determined to be inappropriate (e.g. a number referred to digital transmission lines for electronics and communications applications). The reduced list consisted of 200 entries. Each of these citations, with an abstract, is presented in the following sections.

  2. Published assessments bearing on the future use of ceramic superconductors by the electric power sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giese, R.F.; Wolsky, A.M.

    1992-08-25

    Much has been written about ceramic superconductors since their discovery in 1986. Most of this writing reports and describes scientific research. However, some authors have sought to put this research in context: to assess where the field stands, what might be technically feasible, what might be economically feasible, and what potential impacts ceramic superconductors will bring to the electric power sector. This report`s purpose is to make the results of already published assessments readily available. To that end, this report lists and provides abstracts for various technical and economic assessments related to applications of High-Temperature Superconductors (HTS) to the electric power sector. Those studies deemed most important are identified and summarized. These assessments were identified by two means. First, members of the Executive Committee identified some reports as worthy of consideration and forwarded them to Argonne National Laboratory. Twelve assessments were selected. Each of these is listed and summarized in the following section. Second, a bibliographic search was performed on five databases: INSPEC, NTIS, COMPENDEX, Energy Science & Technology, and Electric Power Database. The search consisted of first selecting all papers related to High Temperature Superconductors. Then papers related to SMES, cables, generators, motors, fault current limiters, or electric utilities were selected. When suitable variants of the above terms were included, this resulted in a selection of 493 citations. These citations were subjected to review by the authors. A number of citations were determined to be inappropriate (e.g. a number referred to digital transmission lines for electronics and communications applications). The reduced list consisted of 200 entries. Each of these citations, with an abstract, is presented in the following sections.

  3. Assessment of xylanase activity in dry storage as a potential method of reducing feedstock cost.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, William A; Thompson, David N; Thompson, Vicki S; Radtke, Corey W; Carter, Brady

    2009-05-01

    Enzymatic preprocessing of lignocellulosic biomass in dry storage systems has the potential to improve feedstock characteristics and lower ethanol production costs. To assess the potential for endoxylanase activity at low water contents, endoxylanase activity was tested using a refined wheat arabinoxylan substrate and three commercial endoxylanases over the water activity range 0.21-1.0, corresponding to water contents of 5% to >60% (dry basis). Homogeneously mixed dry samples were prepared at a fixed enzyme to substrate ratio and incubated in chambers at a variety of fixed water activities. Replicates were sacrificed periodically, and endoxylanase activity was quantified as an increase in reducing sugar relative to desiccant-stored controls. Endoxylanase activity was observed at water activities over 0.91 in all enzyme preparations in less than 4 days and at a water activity of 0.59 in less than 1 week in two preparations. Endoxylanase activity after storage was confirmed for selected desiccant-stored controls by incubation at 100% relative humidity. Water content to water activity relationships were determined for three lignocellulosic substrates, and results indicate that two endoxylanase preparations retained limited activity as low as 7% to 13% water content (dry basis), which is well within the range of water contents representative of dry biomass storage. Future work will examine the effects of endoxylanase activity toward substrates such as corn stover, wheat straw, and switchgrass in low water content environments.

  4. Review of Knowledge on the Occurrence, Chemical Composition, and Potential Use for Desalination of Saline Ground Water in Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas with a Discussion of Potential Future Study Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huff, G.F.

    2004-01-01

    Increasing demand on the limited supplies of freshwater in the desert Southwest, as well as other parts of the United States, has increased the level of interest in saline-water resources. Saline ground water has long been recognized as a potentially important contributor to water supply in the Southwest, as demonstrated by the number of hydrologic, geologic, and engineering studies on the distribution of saline water and the feasibility of desalination. Potential future study needs include investigating and documenting the three-dimensional distribution of salinity and chemical composition of saline-water resources and the hydraulic properties of aquifers containing these saline-water resources, assessing the chemical suitability of saline water for use with existing and anticipated desalination technologies, simulating the effect of withdrawal of saline ground water on water levels and water composition in saline and adjoining or overlying freshwater aquifers, and determining the suitability of target geologic formations for injection of desalination-generated waste.

  5. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7–11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players’ potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player’s future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7–11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items ‘aiming at target’, ‘throwing a ball’, and ‘eye-hand coordination’ in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment’s outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be

  6. A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Normand, Signe; Randin, Christophe; Ohlemüller, Ralf; Bay, Christian; Høye, Toke T; Kjær, Erik D; Körner, Christian; Lischke, Heike; Maiorano, Luigi; Paulsen, Jens; Pearman, Peter B; Psomas, Achilleas; Treier, Urs A; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2013-08-19

    Warming-induced expansion of trees and shrubs into tundra vegetation will strongly impact Arctic ecosystems. Today, a small subset of the boreal woody flora found during certain Plio-Pleistocene warm periods inhabits Greenland. Whether the twenty-first century warming will induce a re-colonization of a rich woody flora depends on the roles of climate and migration limitations in shaping species ranges. Using potential treeline and climatic niche modelling, we project shifts in areas climatically suitable for tree growth and 56 Greenlandic, North American and European tree and shrub species from the Last Glacial Maximum through the present and into the future. In combination with observed tree plantings, our modelling highlights that a majority of the non-native species find climatically suitable conditions in certain parts of Greenland today, even in areas harbouring no native trees. Analyses of analogous climates indicate that these conditions are widespread outside Greenland, thus increasing the likelihood of woody invasions. Nonetheless, we find a substantial migration lag for Greenland's current and future woody flora. In conclusion, the projected climatic scope for future expansions is strongly limited by dispersal, soil development and other disequilibrium dynamics, with plantings and unintentional seed dispersal by humans having potentially large impacts on spread rates.

  7. Current and (Potential) Future Effects of the Affordable Care Act on HIV Prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viall, Abigail H; McCray, Eugene; Mermin, Jonathan; Wortley, Pascale

    2016-04-01

    Recent advances in science, program, and policy could better position the nation to achieve its vision of the USA as a place where new HIV infections are rare. Among these developments, passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2010 may prove particularly important, as the health system transformations it has launched offer a supportive foundation for realizing the potential of other advances, both within and beyond the clinical arena. This article summarizes opportunities to expand access to high-impact HIV prevention interventions under the ACA, examines whether available evidence indicates that these opportunities are being realized, and considers potential challenges to further gains for HIV prevention in an era of health reform. This article also highlights the new roles that HIV prevention programs and providers may assume in a health system no longer defined by fragmentation among public health, medical care, and community service providers.

  8. An assessment of the potential of the microbial assay for risk assessment (MARA) for ecotoxicological testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fai, Patricia Bi; Grant, Alastair

    2010-11-01

    Rapid microscale toxicity tests make it possible to screen large numbers of compounds and greatly simplify toxicity identification evaluation and other effect directed chemical analyses of effluents or environmental samples. Tests using Vibrio fischeri (such as Microtox®) detect toxicants that cause non-specific narcosis, but are insensitive to other important classes of contaminants. The microbial assay for risk assessment (MARA) is a 24 h multi-species test that seeks to address this problem by using a battery of ten bacteria and a fungus. But there has been little independent evaluation of this test, and there is no published information on its sensitivity to pesticides. Here, we assess the performance of MARA using a range of toxicants including reference chemicals, fungicides and environmental samples. Mean MARA microbial toxic concentrations and IC(20)s (20% Inhibitory concentrations) indicate the toxicant concentrations affecting the more sensitive micro-organisms, while the mean IC(50) (50% Inhibitory concentration) was found to be the concentration that was toxic to most MARA species. For the two fungicides tested, the yeast (Pichia anomalia) was the most sensitive of the ten MARA species, and was more sensitive than the nine other yeasts tested. The test may be particularly valuable for work with fungicides. Mean MARA IC(50)s were comparable to values for nine other yeast species and the lowest individual IC(50)s for each toxicant were comparable to reported IC(50)s for Daphnia magna, Selenastrum capricornutum and Microtox® bioassays. MARA organisms exhibited more variable sensitivities, with the most sensitive organism being different for different samples, enhancing the likelihood of toxicity detection and giving a toxicity "fingerprint" that may help identify toxicants. The test, therefore, has great potential and would be valuable for ecotoxicological testing of pollutants.

  9. Fatigue Risk Management in Aviation Maintenance: Current Best Practices and Potential Future Countermeasures

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-01

    a maintenance organization to permit a maintainer who is significantly impaired by fatigue or a psychoactive substance to carry out maintenance on...recommended that the person avoids the routine consumption of caffeinated drinks, as caffeine is less effective as an alerting agent for people...of sleep loss for some mili- tary missions (Caldwell et al., 2009). There have been suggestions that such substances may have potential as fatigue

  10. Modelling future impacts of air pollution using the multi-scale UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oxley, Tim; Dore, Anthony J; ApSimon, Helen; Hall, Jane; Kryza, Maciej

    2013-11-01

    Integrated assessment modelling has evolved to support policy development in relation to air pollutants and greenhouse gases by providing integrated simulation tools able to produce quick and realistic representations of emission scenarios and their environmental impacts without the need to re-run complex atmospheric dispersion models. The UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM) has been developed to investigate strategies for reducing UK emissions by bringing together information on projected UK emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, PM10 and PM2.5, atmospheric dispersion, criteria for protection of ecosystems, urban air quality and human health, and data on potential abatement measures to reduce emissions, which may subsequently be linked to associated analyses of costs and benefits. We describe the multi-scale model structure ranging from continental to roadside, UK emission sources, atmospheric dispersion of emissions, implementation of abatement measures, integration with European-scale modelling, and environmental impacts. The model generates outputs from a national perspective which are used to evaluate alternative strategies in relation to emissions, deposition patterns, air quality metrics and ecosystem critical load exceedance. We present a selection of scenarios in relation to the 2020 Business-As-Usual projections and identify potential further reductions beyond those currently being planned.

  11. Scenario Methodology for Modelling of Future Landscape Developments as Basis for Assessing Ecosystem Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Rosenberg

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystems of our intensively used European landscapes produce a variety of natural goods and services for the benefit of humankind, and secure the basics and quality of life. Because these ecosystems are still undergoing fundamental changes, the interest of the society is to know more about future developments and their ecological impacts. To describe and analyze these changes, scenarios can be developed and an assessment of the ecological changes can be carried out subsequently. In the project „Landscape Saxony 2050“; a methodology for the construction of exploratory scenarios was worked out. The presented methodology provides a possibility to identify the driving forces (socio-cultural, economic and ecological conditions of the landscape development. It allows to indicate possible future paths which lead to a change of structures and processes in the landscape and can influence the capability to provide ecosystem services. One essential component of the applied technique is that an approach for the assessment of the effects of the landscape changes on ecosystem services is integrated into the developed scenario methodology. Another is, that the methodology is strong designed as participatory, i.e. stakeholders are integrated actively. The method is a seven phase model which provides the option for the integration of the stakeholders‘ participation at all levels of scenario development. The scenario framework was applied to the district of Görlitz, an area of 2100 sq km located at the eastern border of Germany. The region is affected by strong demographic as well as economic changes. The core issue focused on the examination of landscape change in terms of biodiversity. Together with stakeholders, a trend scenario and two alternative scenarios were developed. The changes of the landscape structure are represented in story lines, maps and tables. On basis of the driving forces of the issue areas „cultural / social values“ and

  12. Assessing the discovery potential of directional detection of Dark Matter

    CERN Document Server

    Billard, J; Santos, D

    2011-01-01

    There is a worldwide effort toward the development of a large TPC (Time Projection Chamber) devoted to directional Dark Matter detection. All current projects are being designed to fulfill a unique goal : identifying weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) as such by taking advantage of the expected direction dependence of WIMP-induced events toward the constellation Cygnus. However such proof of discovery requires a careful statistical data treatment. In this paper, the discovery potential of forthcoming directional detectors is adressed by using a frequentist approach based on the profile likelihood ratio test statistic. This allows us to estimate the expected significance of a Dark Matter detection. Moreover, using this powerful test statistic, it is possible to propagate astrophysical and experimental uncertainties in the determination of the discovery potential of a given directional detection experiment. This way, we found that a 30 kg.year CF$_4$ directional experiment could reach a 3$\\sigma$ sensit...

  13. Assessment of potential plastic-degrading fungi in Jordanian habitats

    OpenAIRE

    IBRAHIM, Ibrahim N.; MARAQA, Anwar; Hameed, Khalid M.

    2011-01-01

    Out of 70 fungal isolates recovered from soil, wall paints (Latex), and pieces of plastic debris from different habitats in Jordan and plastic shields of street light posts on campus, 35 isolates showed varied potential to degrade polyester-polyurethane (PS-PUR). Six of these isolates (Fusarium solani, Alternaria solani, Spicaria spp., Aspergillus fumigatus, Aspergillus terreus, and Aspergillus flavus) were selected on the basis of their growth rates on basal salt media amended with PS-PUR as...

  14. Assessment of leaching potential of highly leaded jewelry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weidenhamer, Jeffrey D; Newman, Breinn E; Clever, Ashley

    2010-05-15

    Lead is a potent neurotoxin particularly toxic to young children, and in response to recent poisonings of children and high levels of lead contamination in children's jewelry, US regulatory standards for lead content in these items have become much more stringent. Parents are often advised to throw out suspect items in the trash. While household wastes are generally exempt from consideration as hazardous waste, the potential for leaching of hazardous quantities of lead from such items is unknown. A modified Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP), in which intact jewelry components were subjected to leaching, was used to evaluate the potential for leaching of lead from highly leaded jewelry. Of 62 jewelry components tested, 61 exceeded the US regulatory standard for lead of 5mg/L, and leachate lead concentrations averaged 1460 mg/L. Twenty-six of the component items tested yielded TCLP lead concentrations exceeding 1000 mg/L. These results demonstrate that highly leaded jewelry items may leach significant amounts of lead, and provide another reason to remove lead from these products. Furthermore, these results suggest that while the volume of such items in the municipal solid waste (MSW) stream is small, they have the potential to contribute significant quantities of lead to MSW leachates.

  15. Big Feet: Assessing the Current and Future Impact of Population Size on a Country's Ecological Footprint

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogg, R. S.; Takaro, T.; Miller, C.; Hogg, E.; Anema, A.; Gislason, M.; Parkes, M.

    2015-12-01

    Background: Ecological footprints assess the land and water a population needs to procure its resources and handle its waste. Measures derived from these footprints look at a population's ecological overshoot rather than weighting the population to its footprint. The aim of this study was to examine the latter approach by determining what the current and future weighted world population, by income gradient, would be if everyone lived within the boundary of 1.8 hectares per person. Methods: Country-specific ecological footprints and populations for 2007 were obtained from the Global Footprint Network (www.footprintnetwork.org); and projected populations were collected from US Census Bureau (www.census.gov). Footprint growth to 2050 was based on a business as usual approach developed by Kitzes et al. in Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B (2008). Weighted population estimates were derived by multiplying actual population by the ratio of the country's footprint to overall boundary of 1.8 hectares per person. Results: The weighted global population increased by 2.4 billion people (37%) in 2007 based on our adjustment. High and middle-income country populations increased, by 242% and 10%, respectively, while low-income country populations decreased by 33%. The weighed global population in 2050 increased by 10.1 billion with the majority of this growth occurring in high-income countries -- 437% versus 67% and 9% respectively for medium and low-income countries. Conclusions: Our study showed that current and future global weighted demographic and ecological impact would be felt mainly in high-income countries even though actual population growth would occur mainly in low and middle-income countries.

  16. Field resistance of transgenic plantain to nematodes has potential for future African food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathi, Leena; Babirye, Annet; Roderick, Hugh; Tripathi, Jaindra N; Changa, Charles; Urwin, Peter E; Tushemereirwe, Wilberforce K; Coyne, Danny; Atkinson, Howard J

    2015-01-30

    Plant parasitic nematodes impose losses of up to 70% on plantains and cooking bananas in Africa. Application of nematicides is inappropriate and resistant cultivars are unavailable. Where grown, demand for plantain is more than for other staple crops. Confined field testing demonstrated that transgenic expression of a biosafe, anti-feedant cysteine proteinase inhibitor and an anti-root invasion, non-lethal synthetic peptide confers resistance to plantain against the key nematode pests Radopholus similis and Helicotylenchus multicinctus. The best peptide transgenic line showed improved agronomic performance relative to non-transgenic controls and provided about 99% nematode resistance at harvest of the mother crop. Its yield was about 186% in comparison with the nematode challenged control non-transgenic plants based on larger bunches and diminished plant toppling in storms, due to less root damage. This is strong evidence for utilizing this resistance to support the future food security of 70 million, mainly poor Africans that depend upon plantain as a staple food.

  17. Alchemy in the underworld - recent progress and future potential of organic geochemistry applied to speleothems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blyth, Alison

    2016-04-01

    Speleothems are well used archives for chemical records of terrestrial environmental change, and the integration of records from a range of isotopic, inorganic, and organic geochemical techniques offers significant power in reconstructing both changes in past climates and identifying the resultant response in the overlying terrestrial ecosystems. The use of organic geochemistry in this field offers the opportunity to recover new records of vegetation change (via biomarkers and compound specific isotopes), temperature change (via analysis of glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, a compound group derived from microbes and varying in structure in response to temperature and pH), and changes in soil microbial behaviour (via combined carbon isotope analysis). However, to date the use of organic geochemical techniques has been relatively limited, due to issues relating to sample size, concerns about contamination, and unanswered questions about the origins of the preserved organic matter and rates of transport. Here I will briefly review recent progress in the field, and present a framework for the future research needed to establish organic geochemical analysis in speleothems as a robust palaeo-proxy approach.

  18. Potential increase in floods in California's Sierra Nevada under future climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, T.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Hidalgo, H.G.

    2011-01-01

    California's mountainous topography, exposure to occasional heavily moisture-laden storm systems, and varied communities and infrastructures in low lying areas make it highly vulnerable to floods. An important question facing the state-in terms of protecting the public and formulating water management responses to climate change-is "how might future climate changes affect flood characteristics in California?" To help address this, we simulate floods on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the state's primary catchment, based on downscaled daily precipitation and temperature projections from three General Circulation Models (GCMs). These climate projections are fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, and the VIC-simulated streamflows and hydrologic conditions, from historical and from projected climate change runs, allow us to evaluate possible changes in annual maximum 3-day flood magnitudes and frequencies of floods. By the end of the 21st Century, all projections yield larger-than-historical floods, for both the Northern Sierra Nevada (NSN) and for the Southern Sierra Nevada (SSN). The increases in flood magnitude are statistically significant (at p rain and less as snow. Increases in antecedent winter soil moisture also play a role in some areas. Thus, a complex, as-yet unpredictable interplay of several different climatic influences threatens to cause increased flood hazards in California's complex western Sierra landscapes. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  19. Assessment of the potential of ecolabels to promote agrobiodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Amstel, Mariëtte; de Neve, Willem; de Kraker, Joop; Glasbergen, Pieter

    2007-11-01

    We conducted a study to assess to what extent current ecolabels contain standards that stimulate conservation and sustainable use of on-farm biodiversity of agricultural landscapes (agrobiodiversity). First, we developed an agrobiodiversity management yardstick to assess and compare the labeling schemes of ecolabels for arable farming. Key characteristics of the yardstick are the five levels linking the abstract notion of agrobiodiversity management to concrete measures on a farm and its foundation upon expert judgment regarding the effect of farming practices on agrobiodiversity. Several environmental themes, among them agrobiodiversity management, are regulated through the standards of labeling schemes of ecolabels. With the aid of this yardstick, the labeling schemes were scrutinized and the number, average efficacy, and compulsory nature of relevant standards was determined for 10 categories of farm management. The results show that all examined ecolabels contain at least some standards that stimulate conservation and sustainable use of agrobiodiversity, but there are large differences between the labels. We consider the results of the five ecolabels to be insufficient to warrant their usefulness as a governance strategy that the Dutch government could refer to and depend on as part of a national agrobiodiversity policy to stimulate agrobiodiversity.

  20. Sustainable Biomass Potentials for Food-Feed-Fuels in the Future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm-Nielsen, Jens Bo; Kirchovas, Simas

    2012-01-01

    Biomass sources as Woodchips – Wood pellets, Straw – Bio pellets, animal manure, farm-by products and new cropping systems are integrated in our society’s needs. The mindset for shifting from fossil fuels based economies into sustainable energy economies already exist. Bioenergy utilization systems...... has for many years been forming the basis for the change together with wind and solar energy. These resources still contains great potentials for energy supply chains in increasing areas of Europe and the World. Biomass sustainability issues could be solved by developing the international...

  1. Realising Future Internet Potentials for Food Chain SMEs: A Hierarchy of Needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harald Sundmaeker

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The EC funded FI‐PPP programme is currently elaborating a large set of enabling technologies that shall help to overcome challenges towards a sustainable networked society of tomorrow. This up‐front investment can highly facilitate access to such Internet potentials by food chain SMEs. Nevertheless, SMEs require a systematic support for being able to decide on which technological enablers are relevant at which moment of their business evolution. To characterise a decision reference, a hierarchy of needs of food chain SMEs is presented that can serve asbaseline when aiming at the usage of the FI‐PPP results in an SME environment.

  2. Obstetrician-assessed maternal health at pregnancy predicts offspring future health.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debbie A Lawlor

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: We aimed to examine the association between obstetrician assessment of maternal physical health at the time of pregnancy and offspring cardiovascular disease risk. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We examined this association in a birth cohort of 11,106 individuals, with 245,000 person years of follow-up. We were concerned that any associations might be explained by residual confounding, particularly by family socioeconomic position. In order to explore this we used multivariable regression models in which we adjusted for a range of indicators of socioeconomic position and we explored the specificity of the association. Specificity of association was explored by examining associations with other health related outcomes. Maternal physical health was associated with cardiovascular disease: adjusted (socioeconomic position, complications of pregnancy, birthweight and childhood growth at mean age 5 hazard ratio comparing those described as having poor or very poor health at the time of pregnancy to those with good or very good health was 1.55 (95%CI: 1.05, 2.28 for coronary heart disease, 1.91 (95%CI: 0.99, 3.67 for stroke and 1.57 (95%CI: 1.13, 2.18 for either coronary heart disease or stroke. However, this association was not specific. There were strong associations for other outcomes that are known to be related to socioeconomic position (3.61 (95%CI: 1.04, 12.55 for lung cancer and 1.28 (95%CI:1.03, 1.58 for unintentional injury, but not for breast cancer (1.10 (95%CI:0.48, 2.53. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: These findings demonstrate that a simple assessment of physical health (based on the appearance of eyes, skin, hair and teeth of mothers at the time of pregnancy is a strong indicator of the future health risk of their offspring for common conditions that are associated with poor socioeconomic position and unhealthy behaviours. They do not support a specific biological link between maternal health across her life course and

  3. 75 FR 4400 - Draft Guidance for Industry on Assessment of Abuse Potential of Drugs; Availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-27

    ... HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration Draft Guidance for Industry on Assessment of Abuse Potential... and Drug Administration (FDA) is announcing the availability of a draft guidance for industry entitled... availability of a draft guidance for industry entitled ``Assessment of Abuse Potential of Drugs.'' Under...

  4. 78 FR 34093 - An Assessment of Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-06

    ... AGENCY An Assessment of Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, Alaska AGENCY... the revised draft document titled, ``An Assessment of Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of... Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, Alaska'' is available primarily via the Internet...

  5. 78 FR 25266 - An Assessment of Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-30

    ... AGENCY An Assessment of Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, Alaska AGENCY... Assessment of Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, Alaska'' (EPA-910-R-12-004Ba-c... on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, Alaska'' is available primarily via the Internet on the...

  6. A decision support system for assessing offshore wind energy potential in the North Sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schillings, Ch.; Wanderer, T.; Cameron, L.; Wal, van der J.T.; Jacquemin, J.; Veum, K.

    2012-01-01

    Offshore wind energy (OWE) in the North Sea has the potential to meet large share of Europe’s future electricity demand. To deploy offshore wind parks in a rational way, the overall OWE potential has to be realistically determined. This has to be done on an international, cross-border level and by t

  7. Challenges and potentials in using alternative landscape futures during climate change: A literature review and survey study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Rastandeh

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the feasibility of applying alternative futures and scenario analysis in landscape planning during climate change to provide a wider perspective and deeper understanding of this approach for better use and more effective application in the future. The study consists of a literature review and an analysis of recent applied projects carried out worldwide. In addition, an electronic survey was conducted from March to September 2014 to examine viewpoints on the use and application of this approach with reference to climate-change impacts. The survey participants were a group of highly experienced researchers from eighteen countries involved in at least one applied project since 2000 relating to this topic. After analysis of more than forty applied projects, the survey results were incorporated into the analysis to create a comprehensive picture regarding the potentials and limitations of alternative futures and scenario analysis in landscape planning with particular attention to climate change. The findings show that this method is one of the most effective decision-making approaches for adopting landscape policies where landscapes change rapidly under the pressure of urbanisation and climate change. Nevertheless, there is a gap between the advances offered by the approach in various dimensions and the complexity of patterns, uncertainties and upheavals in landscapes due to climate-change impacts in the urbanising world. The research indicates that the approach opens up a great opportunity for decision-makers to expand their perspective and adopt appropriate landscape policies before reaching a point of no return from the sustainability point of view. Meanwhile, there are challenges and barriers in the application of alternative futures and scenario analysis for envisioning the landscapes influenced by climate change and urbanisation that should be pushed back. Although informative, this research raises new questions about this

  8. Usefulness of brain atlases in neuroradiology: Current status and future potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowinski, Wieslaw L

    2016-08-01

    Human brain atlases, although prevalent in medical education and stereotactic and functional neurosurgery, are not yet applied practically in neuroradiology. In a step towards introducing brain atlases to neuroradiology, we discuss nine different situations of potential atlas use: (1) to support interpretation of brain scans with clearly visible structures (to increase confidence of non-neuroradiologists); (2) to delineate and label scans of low anatomical content (with indiscernible or poorly visible anatomy); (3) to assist in generating the structured report; (4) to assist in interpreting small deep lesions, since an atlas's anatomical parcellation is higher than that of the interpreted scan; (5) to approximate distorted due to pathology (and unknown to the interpreter) anatomy and label it; (6) to cope with data explosion; (7) to assist in the interpretation of functional scans (to label the activation foci with the underlying anatomy and Brodmann's areas); (8) to support ischemic stroke image handling by means of atlases of anatomy and blood supply territories; and (9) to communicate image interpretation results (diagnosis) to others. The usefulness of the atlas for automatic structure identification, localisation, delineation, labelling and quantification, as well as for reporting and communication, potentially increases the interpreter's efficiency and confidence, as well as expedites image interpretation.

  9. Potential Applications of the Ceramic Thrust Chamber Technology for Future Transpiration Cooled Rocket Engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbertz, Armin; Ortelt, Markus; Müller, Ilja; Hald, Hermann

    The long-term development of ceramic rocket engine thrust chambers at the German Aerospace Center(DLR) currently leads to designs of self-sustaining, transpiration-cooled, fiber-reinforced ceramic rocket engine chamber structures.This paper discusses characteristic issues and potential benefits introduced by this technology. Achievable benefits are the reduction of weight and manufacturing cost, as well as an increased reliability and higher lifetime due to thermal cycle stability.Experiments with porous Ceramic Matrix Composite(CMC) materials for rocket engine chamber walls have been conducted at the DLR since the end of the 1990s.This paper discusses the current status of DLR's ceramic thrust chamber technology and potential applications for high thrust engines.The manufacturing process and the design concept are explained.The impact of variations of engine parameters(chamber pressure and diam-eter)on the required coolant mass flow are discussed.Due to favorable scaling effects a high thrust application utilizes all benefits of the discussed technology, while avoiding the most significant performance drawbacks.

  10. The Potential of Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI in Future Transport Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Attard

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available As transport systems are pushed to the limits in many cities, governments have tried to resolve problems of traffic and congestion by increasing capacity. Miller (2013 contends the need to identify new capabilities (instead of capacity of the transport infrastructure in order to increase efficiency without extending the physical infrastructure. Kenyon and Lyons (2003 identified integrated traveller information as a facilitator for better transport decisions. Today, with further developments in the use of geographic information systems (GIS and a greater disposition by the public to provide volunteered geographic information (VGI, the potential of information is not only integrated across modes but also user-generated, real-time and available on smartphones anywhere. This geographic information plays today an important role in sectors such as politics, businesses and entertainment, and presumably this would extend to transport in revealing people’s preferences for mobility and therefore be useful for decision-making. The widespread availability of networks and smartphones offer new opportunities supported by apps and crowdsourcing through social media such as the successful traffic and navigation app Waze, car sharing programmes such as Zipcar, and ride sharing systems such as Uber. This study aims to develop insights into the potential of governments to use voluntary (crowdsourced geographic information effectively to achieve sustainable mobility. A review of the literature and existing technology informs this article. Further research into this area is identified and presented at the end of the paper.

  11. Preliminary Assessment of Geothermal Resource Potential at the UTTR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richard P. Smith, PhD., PG; Robert P. Breckenridge, PhD.; Thomas R. Wood, PhD.

    2011-06-01

    The purpose of this report is to summarize the current state of geologic knowledge concerning potential high-temperature geothermal development on the lands controlled by Hill Air Force Base (HAFB) at the Utah Testing and Training Range (UTTR) and the lands encompassed by the Dugway Proving Grounds (Dugway). This report is based on currently available published and publically available information. Most of the information presented here is purely geologic in nature. Therefore, the logistical issues (such as military exclusion areas, proximity to electrical infrastructure, and access) are additional considerations that are being addressed in a separate report that will be issued to HAFB by the SES corporation.

  12. Assessing the Global and Arctic Transport of Polychlorinated Biphenyls Under Present and Future Climate and Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, C. L.; Selin, N. E.

    2014-12-01

    We simulate the present and potential future atmospheric transport and fate of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), using the global chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. PCBs are toxic, persistent, and bioaccumulative chemicals whose production and use have been banned internationally. PCBs continue to cycle through the global atmosphere, however, because of their persistence, passive emissions from remaining stocks, and release from natural storage reservoirs such as oceans or soils. In particular, PCBs have been shown to transport long distances in the atmosphere to locations remote from emissions, such as the Arctic, where they can accumulate in wildlife and humans, putting health at risk. Previous studies have suggested that PCBs may be remobilized in a changing climate because higher temperatures will cause greater re-emissions from surface reservoirs. Here, we modify GEOS-Chem to simulate atmospheric PCB transport and investigate the relative effects of predicted climate changes and projected declines in primary emissions, especially on transport to the Arctic. We quantify changes in atmospheric concentrations of two PCBs (CB28 and CB 153) under 2050 climate ("FC"); 2050 emissions ("FE"); and 2050 climate and emissions combined ("FCFE"); relative to a 2000 climate, 2000 emissions control scenario, and determine the major processes affecting these changes. In the version of the model presented here, only soil-atmosphere surface interactions are considered, though future versions will include interaction with other surface media. Our results suggest projected 2050 emissions will play a stronger role than 2050 climate in controlling PCB concentrations of different volatilities. Temperature increases under FC cause increases in emissions of only 4% at most, resulting in negligible concentration changes relative to the FE scenario, in which primary emissions are projected to decline to <0.05% of present-day. Thus, the concentrations in the combined FCFE scenario are

  13. Potential mechanisms and applications of statins on osteogenesis: Current modalities, conflicts and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oryan, Ahmad; Kamali, Amir; Moshiri, Ali

    2015-10-10

    Statins are known for their beneficial effects on cardiovascular diseases. Besides the lipid-lowering properties, statins exert their anabolic effects on the bone by differentiating mesenchymal cells to osteoblasts via upregulating BMP-2 and protecting osteoblasts from apoptosis. In addition, statins have been suggested to be anti-osteoclastic by reducing the osteoclast differentiation and activity. Several in vivo and clinical studies have confirmed the beneficial effects of statins in the treatment of osteoporosis and fracture injuries. However, controversial results exist showing statins may have no benefit and in some instances, they may retard bone repair. Different factors such as type, route of administration, dose and dosage of statins, and the injury model seem to be involved for such controversies. In the present study, the most important issues regarding statins have been reviewed to find out how statins may be beneficial and statin therapy can be improved for treating osteoporosis and fracture injuries. The lipophilic statins particularly simvastatin and atorvastatin are the most investigated statins with beneficial results on bone healing and turnover. Most of the in vivo and clinical studies performed systemic route of administration for treating osteoporosis, with much higher clinical doses than the lipid lowering therapy, which increases the statin related side and out of target effects. In contrast, most of the in vivo studies that used statins for fracture repair have applied local delivery methods with much lower doses via tissue engineering approaches. However, local delivery of statins and statin therapy for fracture repair both have low application in the clinical setting and such methods are still under in vivo investigation. Future clinical trials are needed to elucidate how delivery systems and tissue engineering technologies are able to improve the outcome of statin therapy.

  14. Regional maps of occupational heat exposure: past, present, and potential future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tord Kjellstrom

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: An important feature of climate change is increasing human heat exposure in workplaces without cooling systems in tropical and subtropical countries. Detailed gridded heat exposure maps will provide essential information for public health authorities. Objectives: To develop and test methods for calculating occupational heat exposures and present results in easily interpreted maps. Design: Published formulas for a common occupational heat exposure index, the WBGT (Wet Bulb Globe Temperature, were used in combination with global gridded climate data to calculate heat exposure in 0.58 grid squares. Monthly averages of daily maximum temperatures, as indicators of typical temperatures during the hottest part of the day, and corresponding water vapour pressures produced estimates of monthly WBGT indoors (without cooling systems or outdoors in the shade. Results: The maps show the WBGT within four hot regions of the world during the three hottest months in 1975 and 2000: Australia, South Asia, Southern Africa, Central America, and southern US. Between 1975 and 2000 a WBGT increase of 0.5–1°C was common and the maps show clear decreases in some places. The time trends fit with the development of global climate change. The high WBGT values (particularly in South Asia already cause excessive occupational heat exposures during the three hottest months. If continued climate change increases WBGT by 3°C, our maps identify areas where occupational heat stress in non-cooled workplaces will be extreme. Conclusions: The mapping method provides a rapid visual impression of occupational heat exposures in large regions of the world. The local changes in WBGT between 1975 and 2000 fit with the global climate change trends. Future increases of WBGT may create extreme heat exposure situations in large areas of the world.

  15. In vivo confocal microscopy for the oral cavity: Current state of the field and future potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maher, N G; Collgros, H; Uribe, P; Ch'ng, S; Rajadhyaksha, M; Guitera, P

    2016-03-01

    Confocal microscopy (CM) has been shown to correlate with oral mucosal histopathology in vivo. The purposes of this review are to summarize what we know so far about in vivo CM applications for oral mucosal pathologies, to highlight some current developments with CM devices relevant for oral applications, and to formulate where in vivo CM could hold further application for oral mucosal diagnosis and management. Ovid Medline® and/or Google® searches were performed using the terms 'microscopy, confocal', 'mouth neoplasms', 'mouth mucosa', 'leukoplakia, oral', 'oral lichen planus', 'gingiva', 'cheilitis', 'taste', 'inflammatory oral confocal', 'mucosal confocal' and 'confocal squamous cell oral'. In summary, inclusion criteria were in vivo use of any type of CM for the human oral mucosa and studies on normal or pathological oral mucosa. Experimental studies attempting to identify proteins of interest and microorganisms were excluded. In total 25 relevant articles were found, covering 8 main topics, including normal oral mucosal features (n=15), oral dysplasia or neoplasia (n=7), inflamed oral mucosa (n=3), taste impairment (n=3), oral autoimmune conditions (n=2), pigmented oral pathology/melanoma (n=1), delayed type hypersensitivity (n=1), and cheilitis glandularis (n=1). The evidence for using in vivo CM in these conditions is poor, as it is limited to mainly small descriptive studies. Current device developments for oral CM include improved probe design. The authors propose that future applications for in vivo oral CM may include burning mouth syndrome, intra-operative mapping for cancer surgery, and monitoring and targeted biopsies within field cancerization.

  16. Assessment of potential asbestos exposures from jet engine overhaul work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mlynarek, S P; Van Orden, D R

    2012-06-01

    Asbestos fibers have been used in a wide variety of products and numerous studies have shown that exposures from the use or manipulation of these products can vary widely. Jet engines contained various components (gaskets, clamps, o-rings and insulation) that contained asbestos that potentially could release airborne fibers during routine maintenance or during an engine overhaul. To evaluate the potential exposures to aircraft mechanics, a Pratt & Whitney JT3D jet engine was obtained and overhauled by experienced mechanics using tools and work practices similar to those used since the time this engine was manufactured. This study has demonstrated that the disturbance of asbestos-containing gaskets, o-rings, and other types of asbestos-containing components, while performing overhaul work to a jet engine produces very few airborne fibers, and that virtually none of these aerosolized fibers is asbestos. The overhaul work was observed to be dirty and oily. The exposures to the mechanics and bystanders were several orders of magnitude below OSHA exposure regulations, both current and historic. The data presented underscore the lack of risk to the health of persons conducting this work and to other persons in proximity to it from airborne asbestos.

  17. Assessment of Hydrocarbon Generation Potential of Permian Gondwana Coals, Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. M. Zakir Hossain

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper represents the geochemical characteristics of Gondwana coals from the Barapukuria coal mine, Bangladesh in order to investigate the potential for hydrocarbon generation. A total number of twenty three coal samples were analyzed Rock-Eval pyrolysis, CHNS elemental analyses, maceral analysis and vitrinite reflectance. The samples were collected from drill hole GDH-40 of the Barapukuria coal mine encountered within Gondwana succession of Permian age. The TOC contents of the coal samples range between ~50 and 76 wt.% and the organic matter consists predominantly of type III and type IV kerogen with respect to hydrocarbon generation. The GP, HI, PI and Tmax values range between 7 and 35 mg HC/g rock, 20 and 62 mg HC/g TOC, 0.02 and 0.04, and 430 and 437oC, respectively. The organic matter is mainly gas prone and thermally immature to early mature level. The potential coal bed methane (CBM generation of the Barapukuria basin is estimated to be 11 Gm3. Thus, underground coal gasification (UCG is helpful for better development of subsurface coals at the Barapukuria basin, Bangladesh.

  18. ASSESSMENT OF BIOTHERAPEUTIC POTENTIAL OF PIMENTA DIOICA (ALLSPICE LEAF EXTRACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr Pratima Khandelwal et al

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available All-spice (pimenta is one of the under-utilized resources available in the tropical regions of the globe. It is a variety of sweet pepper used as a spice and its leaves are used for traditional culinary purpose. Researchers have studied the antioxidant potentials of the berries of the plant, but no documented work is reported on its stem, leaf and roots for antimicrobial properties. Thus, the present investigation was carried out to access the antimicrobial and anti-oxidation potentials of leaf extracts using three solvent systems, (Aqueous, acetone and methanol. All solvent systems at different concentrations were evaluated for antibacterial, antifungal and reducing capacity against selected bacterial and fungal pathogens; zone of inhibition was exhibited by methanol leaf extracts in decreasing order for Escherichia coli, Bacillus cereus, Salmonella typhimurium, and Staphylococcus aureus. Lesser inhibitory zones were obtained by acetone leaf extracts, whereas, Klebsiella pneumonia and Pseudomonas aeruginosa were not inhibited by any extracts. Aqueous extract demonstrated no inhibitory activity against tested bacterial pathogens. All the three leaf extracts were found to be ineffective against fungal strains (Fusarium oxysporum, Aspergillus niger, Aspergillus flavus and Candida albicans tested. Protein content in each extract was determined and reducing capability was estimated which was found to be high in methanol and acetone extract whereas aqueous extract showed low reducing ability.

  19. Mutagenic potential assessment associated with human exposure to natural radioactivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcon, Alexandre Endres; Navoni, Julio Alejandro; de Oliveira Galvão, Marcos Felipe; Garcia, Anuska Conde Fagundes Soares; do Amaral, Viviane Souza; Petta, Reinaldo Antônio; Campos, Thomas Ferreira da Costa; Panosso, Renata; Quinelato, Antônio Luiz; de Medeiros, Sílvia Regina Batistuzzo

    2017-01-01

    Lucrécia city, known to harbor a high cancer rate, is located in a semiarid region characterized by the presence of mineral reservoirs, facing a high exposure to metal and natural radioactivity. The present study aimed to assess the environmental scenario at a semiarid region located in Northeastern Brazil. Metal concentration, alpha and beta radiation, and cyanobacteria content in tap water along with indoor radon and gamma emitters (U, K and Th) concentrations were measured. In addition, mutagenic and nuclear instability effects were assessed using buccal micronucleus cytome assay. The study included five samplings corresponding to a period between 2007 and 2009. Drinking water from Lucrécia city presented levels of Mn, Ni and Cr along with cyanobacteria in concentrations one to four times higher than regulatory guidelines considered. Furthermore, high levels of all the tested radionuclides were found. A high percentage of the houses included in this study presented indoor radon concentrations over 100 Bq m(-3). The mean annual effective dose from Lucrécia houses was six times higher than observed in a control region. The levels of exposure in most of the Lucrécia houses were classified as middle to high. A significant mutagenic effect, represented as an increase of micronuclei (MN) frequency and nuclear abnormalities as nuclear buds (NB), binucleated cells (BN), and pyknotic cells (PYC) were found. The results obtained highlight the role of high background radioactivity on the observed mutagenic effect and could help to explain the exacerbated cancer rate reported in this locality.

  20. Potential immunological markers for diagnosis and therapeutic assessment of toxocariasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubinsky-Elefant, Guita; Hoshino-Shimizu, Sumie; Jacob, Cristina Miuki Abe; Sanchez, Maria Carmen Arroyo; Ferreira, Antonio Walter

    2011-01-01

    In human toxocariasis, there are few approaches using immunological markers for diagnosis and therapeutic assessment. An immunoblot (IB) assay using excretory-secretory Toxocara canis antigen was standardized for monitoring IgG, IgE and IgA antibodies in 27 children with toxocariasis (23 visceral, three mixed visceral and ocular, and one ocular form) for 22-116 months after chemotherapy. IB sensitivity was 100% for IgG antibodies to bands of molecular weight 29-38, 48-54, 95-116, 121-162, >205 kDa, 80.8% for IgE to 29-38, 48-54, 95-121, > 205 kDa, and 65.4% for IgA to 29-38, 48-54, 81-93 kDa. Candidates for diagnostic markers should be IgG antibodies to bands of low molecular weight (29-38 and 48-54 kDa). One group of patients presented the same antibody reactivity to all bands throughout the follow-up study; in the other group, antibodies decayed partially or completely to some or all bands, but these changes were not correlated with time after chemotherapy. Candidates for monitoring patients after chemotherapy may be IgG antibodies to > 205 kDa fractions, IgA to 29-38, 48-54, 81-93 kDa and IgE to 95-121 kDa. Further identification of antigen epitopes related to these markers will allow the development of sensitive and specific immunoassays for the diagnosis and therapeutic assessment of toxocariasis.

  1. Potential immunological markers for diagnosis and therapeutic assessment of toxocariasis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guita Rubinsky-Elefant

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available In human toxocariasis, there are few approaches using immunological markers for diagnosis and therapeutic assessment. An immunoblot (IB assay using excretory-secretory Toxocara canis antigen was standardized for monitoring IgG, IgE and IgA antibodies in 27 children with toxocariasis (23 visceral, three mixed visceral and ocular, and one ocular form for 22-116 months after chemotherapy. IB sensitivity was 100% for IgG antibodies to bands of molecular weight 29-38, 48-54, 95-116, 121-162, >205 kDa, 80.8% for IgE to 29-38, 48-54, 95-121, > 205 kDa, and 65.4% for IgA to 29-38, 48-54, 81-93 kDa. Candidates for diagnostic markers should be IgG antibodies to bands of low molecular weight (29-38 and 48-54 kDa. One group of patients presented the same antibody reactivity to all bands throughout the follow-up study; in the other group, antibodies decayed partially or completely to some or all bands, but these changes were not correlated with time after chemotherapy. Candidates for monitoring patients after chemotherapy may be IgG antibodies to > 205 kDa fractions, IgA to 29-38, 48-54, 81-93 kDa and IgE to 95-121 kDa. Further identification of antigen epitopes related to these markers will allow the development of sensitive and specific immunoassays for the diagnosis and therapeutic assessment of toxocariasis.

  2. Decisional tool to assess current and future process robustness in an antibody purification facility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stonier, Adam; Simaria, Ana Sofia; Smith, Martin; Farid, Suzanne S

    2012-07-01

    Increases in cell culture titers in existing facilities have prompted efforts to identify strategies that alleviate purification bottlenecks while controlling costs. This article describes the application of a database-driven dynamic simulation tool to identify optimal purification sizing strategies and visualize their robustness to future titer increases. The tool harnessed the benefits of MySQL to capture the process, business, and risk features of multiple purification options and better manage the large datasets required for uncertainty analysis and optimization. The database was linked to a discrete-event simulation engine so as to model the dynamic features of biopharmaceutical manufacture and impact of resource constraints. For a given titer, the tool performed brute force optimization so as to identify optimal purification sizing strategies that minimized the batch material cost while maintaining the schedule. The tool was applied to industrial case studies based on a platform monoclonal antibody purification process in a multisuite clinical scale manufacturing facility. The case studies assessed the robustness of optimal strategies to batch-to-batch titer variability and extended this to assess the long-term fit of the platform process as titers increase from 1 to 10 g/L, given a range of equipment sizes available to enable scale intensification efforts. Novel visualization plots consisting of multiple Pareto frontiers with tie-lines connecting the position of optimal configurations over a given titer range were constructed. These enabled rapid identification of robust purification configurations given titer fluctuations and the facility limit that the purification suites could handle in terms of the maximum titer and hence harvest load.

  3. Vaccines for TB: Lessons from the Past Translating into Future Potentials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gee Jun Tye

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Development of vaccines for infectious diseases has come a long way with recent advancements in adjuvant developments and discovery of new antigens that are capable of eliciting strong immunological responses for sterile eradication of disease. Tuberculosis (TB that kills nearly 2 million of the population every year is also one of the highlights of the recent developments. The availability or not of diagnostic methods for infection has implications for the control of the disease by the health systems but is not related to the immune surveillance, a phenomenon derived from the interaction between the bacteria and their host. Here, we will review the immunology of TB and current vaccine candidates for TB. Current strategies of developing new vaccines against TB will also be reviewed in order to further discuss new insights into immunotherapeutic approaches involving adjuvant and antigens combinations that might be of potential for the control of TB.

  4. Floating Offshore Wind in Hawaii: Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts from Three Future Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jimenez, Tony; Keyser, David; Tegen, Suzanne

    2016-04-18

    Construction of the first offshore wind power plant in the United States began in 2015, off the coast of Rhode Island, using fixed platform structures that are appropriate for shallow seafloors, like those located off the East Coast and mid-Atlantic. However, floating platforms, which have yet to be deployed commercially, will likely need to be anchored to the deeper seafloor if deployed in Hawaiian waters. To analyze the employment and economic potential for floating offshore wind off Hawaii's coasts, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to analyze two hypothetical deployment scenarios for Hawaii: 400 MW of offshore wind by 2050 and 800 MW of offshore wind by 2050. The results of this analysis can be used to better understand the general scale of economic opportunities that could result from offshore wind development.

  5. Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael;

    2015-01-01

    Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate...... pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote...... extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective...

  6. The potential future of high-temperature gas turbines in power plants; Zukunftsperspektiven fuer die Hochtemperatur-Gasturbine im Kraftwerksbau

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vogeler, Konrad [Technische Univ. Dresden (Germany). Inst. fuer Stroemungsmechanik

    2011-07-01

    The future role of the high-temperature gas turbine is discussed. Due to environmental and cost pressure, the mix of primary energy sources will be changing. CO{sub 2} capture and storage (CCS) will have major impact on technical equipment and operation cost of fossil-fired power plants. If fuel consumption has to be minimised, the efficiency of power plants will be the key to success. The paper discusses the main parameters which influence efficiency and power output for an open and combined cycle gas turbine cycle. State-of-the-art materials and manufacturing methods promise potentials to increase efficiency even further. (orig.)

  7. GIS Assessment of Wind Energy Potential in California and Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snow, R. K.; Snow, M. M.

    2008-05-01

    Energy efficiency coupled with renewable energy technologies can provide most of the U.S. carbon emissions reductions needed to contain atmospheric carbon concentrations at 450-500 parts per million, considered by many to be a tipping point in mitigating climate change. Among the leaders in the alternative energy sector is wind power, which is now one of the largest sources of new power generation in the U.S. creating jobs and revenue for rural communities while powering our economy with an emissions-free source of energy. In 2006, wind turbines capable of generating more than 2,400 megawatts of electricity were installed in the U.S. and by 2007 this number had risen to 3,000 megawatts. The U.S. generated 31 billion kilowatt-hours of wind power in 2007, which is enough electricity to power the equivalent of nearly 3 million average homes. It is estimated that generating the same amount of electricity would require burning 16 million tons of coal or 50 million barrels of oil. This study examines the wind power potential of sites near populated areas in Florida and California to determine the practicability of installing wind turbines at these locations. A GIS was developed in order to conduct a spatial analysis of these sites based on mean annual wind speed measured in meters per second and wind power density ratings measured in watts per square meter. The analysis indicates that coastal areas of Cocoa Beach, Key West, Hollywood, and West Palm Beach, respectively, possess the greatest potential for wind energy in Florida with mean annual wind speeds of 4.9 m/s and average wind power density ratings of 171 w/m2 peaking at Cocoa Beach followed by wind speeds of 4.64 m/s and wind power ratings of 115 w/m2 at Key West. California wind energy potential is even greater than that of Florida with Fairfield exhibiting mean annual wind speeds of 5.9 m/s and average wind power density ratings of 327 w/m2 followed by the Mojave and Palmdale areas with mean annual wind speeds of

  8. Fungal Peptaibiotics: Assessing Potential Meteoritic Amino Acid Contamination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsila, J. E.; Callahan, M. P.; Glavin, D. P.; Dworkin, J. P.; Bruckner, H.

    2010-01-01

    The presence of non-protein alpha-dialkyl-amino acids such as alpha-aminoisobutyric acid (alpha-A1B) and isovaline (Iva), which are relatively rare in the terrestrial biosphere, has long been used as an indication of the indigeneity of meteoritic amino acids, however, the discovery of alpha-AIB in peptides producers by a widespread group of filamentous fungi indicates the possibility of a terrestrial biotic source for the alpha-AIB observed in some meteorites. The alpha-AIB-containing peptides produced by these fungi are dubbed peptaibiotics. We measured the molecular distribution and stable carbon and nitrogen isotopic ratios for amino acids found in the total hydrolysates of four biologically synthesized peptaibiotics. We compared these aneasurenetts with those from the CM2 carbonaceous chondrite Murchison and from three Antarctic CR2 carbonaceous chondrites in order to understand the peptaibiotics as a potential source of meteoritic contamination.

  9. Assessment of genotoxic potential of Tamra Bhasma (incinerated copper

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swapnil Y Chaudhari

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The presence of metallic content in Ayurvedic drugs became an important burning issue in present days. The usefulness of Bhasmas (incinerated metals/minerals in therapeutics, their safety or toxicity is frequently being raised on different platforms. Considering this, there is a need to develop toxicity profiles of different metals/minerals. Tamra Bhasma (incinerated copper one such metallic formulation is widely used in cardiac and lipid disorders by Ayurvedic Physicians. The present study is aimed to evaluate the genotoxic potential of Tamra Bhasma. Materials and Methods: It was prepared as per classical guidelines and administered to Swiss albino mice for 14 consecutive days. Chromosomal aberration and sperm abnormality assay were studied. Results: All treated groups exhibited significant body weight gain in comparison to cyclophosphamide (CP group. Results revealed no structural deformity in above parameters in comparison to CP group. Conclusion: Reported data showed that both tested samples of Tamra Bhasma were not genotoxic and can be used safely.

  10. Assessing the cost saving potential of shared product architectures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Niels Henrik; Hansen, Christian Lindschou; Løkkegaard, Martin;

    2016-01-01

    This article presents a method for calculating cost savings of shared architectures in industrial companies called Architecture Mapping and Evaluation. The main contribution is an operational method to evaluate the cost potential and evaluate the number of product architectures in an industrial...... company. Experiences from the case company show it is possible to reduce the number of architectures with 60% which leads to significant reduction in direct material and labor costs. This can be achieved without compromising the market offerings of products. Experiences from the case study indicate cost...... reductions between 0.5% and 2% of turnover. The main implication is that the method provides a quantitative basis for the discussion on whether or not to implement shared product architectures. This means a more fact-based approach is introduced....

  11. An Assessment of Future Demands for and Benefits of Public Transit Srevices in Tennessee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Southworth, F.

    2004-04-29

    This report documents results from a study carried out by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Tennessee at Knoxville for the Office of Public Transportation, Tennessee Department of Transportation. The study team was tasked with developing a process and a supporting methodology for estimating the benefits accruing to the State from the operation of state supported public transit services. The team was also tasked with developing forecasts of the future demands for these State supported transit services at five year intervals through the year 2020, broken down where possible to the local transit system level. Separate ridership benefits and forecasts were also requested for the State's urban and rural transit operations. Tennessee's public transit systems are subsidized to a degree by taxpayers. It is therefore in the public interest that assessments of the benefits of such systems be carried out at intervals, to determine how they are contributing to the well-being of the state's population. For some population groups within the State of Tennessee these transit services have become essential as a means of gaining access to workplaces and job training centers, to educational and health care facilities, as well as to shops, social functions and recreational sites.

  12. An Assessment of Future Demands for and Benefits of Public Transit Services in Tennessee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Southworth, F.

    2003-06-10

    This report documents results from a study carried out by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Tennessee at Knoxville for the Office of Public Transportation, Tennessee Department of Transportation. The study team was tasked with developing a process and a supporting methodology for estimating the benefits accruing to the State from the operation of state supported public transit services. The team was also tasked with developing forecasts of the future demands for these State supported transit services at five year intervals through the year 2020, broken down where possible to the local transit system level. Separate ridership benefits and forecasts were also requested for the State's urban and rural transit operations. Tennessee's public transit systems are subsidized to a degree by taxpayers. It is therefore in the public interest that assessments of the benefits of such systems be carried out at intervals, to determine how they are contributing to the well-being of the state's population. For some population groups within the State of Tennessee these transit services have become essential as a means of gaining access to workplaces and job training centers, to educational and health care facilities, as well as to shops, social functions and recreational sites.

  13. Lipid content and composition of oocytes from five coral species: potential implications for future cryopreservation efforts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiahsin Lin

    Full Text Available Given the previously documented importance of lipid concentration and composition in the successful cryopreservation of gorgonian corals, these parameters were assessed in oocytes of five species of scleractinian coral; Platygyra daedalea, Echinopora gemmacea, Echinophyllia aspera, Oxypora lacera and Astreopora expansa. Wax esters, phosphatidylethanolamine, phosphatidylcholine, and fatty acids were all measured at detectable levels, and the latter were produced at significantly elevated quantities in E. gemmacea, E. aspera, and O. lacera. On the other hand, phosphatidylethanolamine, phosphatidylcholine, and wax ester were found at significantly higher concentrations in A. expansa oocytes. Triacylglycerol was not present in any species. Interestingly, the total lipid content of oocytes from all five scleractinians was significantly lower than that of oocytes of two gorgonian species, Junceella juncea and Junceella fragilis. As higher total lipid concentrations may be correlated with greater degrees of cellular membrane fluidity at lower temperatures, it stands to reason that gorgonian coral oocytes may be more likely to survive the cryopreservation process than oocytes of scleractinian corals.

  14. Assessment of underground water potential zones using modern geomatics technologies in Jhansi district, Uttar Pradesh, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, N. K.; Shukla, A. K.; Shukla, S.; Pandey, M.

    2014-11-01

    Ground water is a distinguished component of the hydrologic cycle. Surface water storage and ground water withdrawal are traditional engineering approaches which will continue to be followed in the future. The uncertainty about the occurrence, distribution and quality aspect of the ground water and the energy requirement for its withdrawal impose restriction on exploitation of ground water. The main objective of the study is assessment of underground water potential zones of Jhansi city and surrounding area, by preparing underground water potential zone map using Geographical Information System (GIS), remote sensing, and validation by underground water inventory mapping using GPS field survey done along the parts of National Highway 25 and 26 and some state highway passing through the study area. Study area covers an area of 1401 km2 and its perimeter is approximate 425 km. For this study Landsat TM (0.76-0.90 um) band data were acquired from GLCF website. Sensor spatial resolution is 30 m. Satellite image has become a standard tool aiding in the study of underground water. Extraction of different thematic layers like Land Use Land Cover (LULC), settlement, etc. can be done through unsupervised classification. The modern geometics technologies viz. remote sensing and GIS are used to produce the map that classifies the groundwater potential zone to a number of qualitative zone such as very high, high, moderate, low or very low. Thematic maps are prepared by visual interpretation of Survey of India topo-sheets and linearly enhanced Landsat TM satellite image on 1 : 50,000 scale using AutoCAD, ArcGIS 10.1 and ERDAS 11 software packages.

  15. Harmonising bioenergy resource potentials-Methodological lessons from review of state of the art bioenergy potential assessments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Batidzirai, B.; Smeets, E.M.W.; Faaij, A.P.C.

    2012-01-01

    Published estimates of the potential of bioenergy vary widely, mainly due to the heterogeneity of methodologies, assumptions and datasets employed. These discrepancies are confusing for policy and it is thus important to have scientific clarity on the basis of the assessment outcomes. Such clear ins

  16. Assessing the potential for luminescence dating of basalts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsukamoto, S.; Duller, G.A.T.; Wintle, A.G.; Muhs, D.

    2011-01-01

    The possibility of dating basalt using luminescence was tested on four samples with independent age control from Cima volcanic field, California, with the ultimate aim of assessing whether the technique could be used to date sediments on the surface of Mars. Previous analysis of these samples had demonstrated that the infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) signal is most suitable for dating as it showed the lowest fading rate among various luminescence signals. In this study, changes in equivalent dose as a function of preheat are described. The ages for the two youngest Cima samples agree with the independent ages based on cosmogenic nuclide measurements (12.0 ?? 0.8 ka). In the two older samples (dated to 320 and 580 ka by K-Ar), the luminescence behaviour is more complex and the form of the IRSL decay curve is seen to vary with dose. Mathematical fitting is used to isolate two components and their intensities are used to produce dose response curves. The slower component yields a larger equivalent dose. However, even using this component and after correction for fading, the ages obtained for the older samples are younger than the K-Ar ages. ?? 2010 Elsevier B.V.

  17. Assessing auditory evoked potentials of wild harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruser, Andreas; Dähne, Michael; van Neer, Abbo; Lucke, Klaus; Sundermeyer, Janne; Siebert, Ursula; Houser, Dorian S; Finneran, James J; Everaarts, Eligius; Meerbeek, Jolanda; Dietz, Rune; Sveegaard, Signe; Teilmann, Jonas

    2016-07-01

    Testing the hearing abilities of marine mammals under water is a challenging task. Sample sizes are usually low, thus limiting the ability to generalize findings of susceptibility towards noise influences. A method to measure harbor porpoise hearing thresholds in situ in outdoor conditions using auditory steady state responses of the brainstem was developed and tested. The method was used on 15 live-stranded animals from the North Sea during rehabilitation, shortly before release into the wild, and on 12 wild animals incidentally caught in pound nets in Denmark (inner Danish waters). Results indicated that although the variability between individuals is wide, the shape of the hearing curve is generally similar to previously published results from behavioral trials. Using 10-kHz frequency intervals between 10 and 160 kHz, best hearing was found between 120 and 130 kHz. Additional testing using one-third octave frequency intervals (from 16 to 160 kHz) allowed for a much faster hearing assessment, but eliminated the fine scale threshold characteristics. For further investigations, the method will be used to better understand the factors influencing sensitivity differences across individuals and to establish population-level parameters describing hearing abilities of harbor porpoises.

  18. Assessment of qualitative potential of groundwater using AHP and GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamad Baniasadi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to assess the groundwater quality status in Babak city (ShahreBabak plain, the quality parameters were studied simultaneously in all extent of the aquifers. According to the simultaneous study of all factors affecting water quality, The Geographic Information System (GIS can be used to analyze spatial data and raster maps can be made for changes in quality parameters and composition of these layers. In this study, after making variation maps for any qualitative parameter and classification of each map in GIS, by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP, in addition to determining the weight of each parameter, the weight of each class also was determined. The results show that according to Schoeller diagram drinking water is classified into four groups: good (1. 93 per cent, suitable (6.7 per cent, Unsuitable (71. 5 percent and bad (19. 87 percent and according to Wilcox diagram, agriculture water is classified into three groups: good (12. 3 percent, moderate (78. 9 percent and Unsuitable (8.8 percent.

  19. Using urban forest assessment tools to model bird habitat potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerman, Susannah B.; Nislow, Keith H.; Nowak, David J.; Destefano, Stephen; King, David I.; Jones-Farrand, D. Todd

    2014-01-01

    The alteration of forest cover and the replacement of native vegetation with buildings, roads, exotic vegetation, and other urban features pose one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity. As more land becomes slated for urban development, identifying effective urban forest wildlife management tools becomes paramount to ensure the urban forest provides habitat to sustain bird and other wildlife populations. The primary goal of this study was to integrate wildlife suitability indices to an existing national urban forest assessment tool, i-Tree. We quantified available habitat characteristics of urban forests for ten northeastern U.S. cities, and summarized bird habitat relationships from the literature in terms of variables that were represented in the i-Tree datasets. With these data, we generated habitat suitability equations for nine bird species representing a range of life history traits and conservation status that predicts the habitat suitability based on i-Tree data. We applied these equations to the urban forest datasets to calculate the overall habitat suitability for each city and the habitat suitability for different types of land-use (e.g., residential, commercial, parkland) for each bird species. The proposed habitat models will help guide wildlife managers, urban planners, and landscape designers who require specific information such as desirable habitat conditions within an urban management project to help improve the suitability of urban forests for birds.

  20. The Future of Self-Assessment in Classroom Practice: Reframing Self-Assessment as a Core Competency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Gavin T. L.; Harris, Lois R.

    2014-01-01

    Formative assessment policies and self-regulation theories argue that student self-assessment of their own work and processes are useful for raising academic performance and self-regulatory skills. However, research into student self-evaluation raises serious doubts about the quality of self-assessment as an assessment process and identifies…

  1. Overview and Future Potential of Buccal Mucoadhesive Films as Drug Delivery Systems for Biologics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montenegro-Nicolini, Miguel; Morales, Javier O

    2017-01-01

    The main route of administration for drug products is the oral route, yet biologics are initially developed as injectables due to their limited stability through the gastrointestinal tract and solubility issues. In order to avoid injections, a myriad of investigations on alternative administration routes that can bypass enzymatic degradation and the first-pass effect are found in the literature. As an alternative site for biologics absorption, the buccal route presents with a number of advantages. The buccal mucosa is a barrier, providing protection to underlying tissue, but is more permeable than other alternative routes such as the skin. Buccal films are polymeric matrices designed to be mucoadhesive properties and usually formulated with permeability enhancers to improve bioavailability. Conventionally, buccal films for biologics are manufactured by solvent casting, yet recent developments have shown the potential of hot melt extrusion, and most recently ink jet printing as promising strategies. This review aims at depicting the field of biologics-loaded mucoadhesive films as buccal drug delivery systems. In light of the literature available, the buccal epithelium is a promising route for biologics administration, which is reflected in clinical trials currently in progress, looking forward to register and commercialize the first biologic product formulated as a buccal film.

  2. Therapeutic Potential, Challenges and Future Perspective of Cancer Stem Cells in Translational Oncology: A Critical Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Gaurav; Khera, Harvinder Kour; Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Khare, Piush; Patidar, Rahul; Saxena, Rajiv

    2017-01-01

    Stem cell research is a rapidly developing field that offers effective treatment for a variety of malignant and non-malignant diseases. Stem cell is a regenerative medicine associated with the replacement, repair, and restoration of injured tissue. Stem cell research is a promising field having maximum therapeutic potential. Cancer stem cells (CSCs) are the cells within the tumor that posses capacity of selfrenewal and have a root cause for the failure of traditional therapies leading to re-occurrence of cancer. CSCs have been identified in blood, breast, brain, and colon cancer. Traditional therapies target only fast growing tumor mass, but not slow-dividing cancer stem cells. It has been shown that embryonic pathways such as Wnt, Hedgehog and Notch, control self-renewal capacity and involved in cancer stem cell maintenance. Targeting of these pathways may be effective in eradicating cancer stem cells and preventing chemotherapy and radiotherapy resistance. Targeting CSCs has become one of the most effective approaches to improve the cancer survival by eradicating the main root cause of cancer. The present review will address, in brief, the importance of cancer stem cells in targeting cancer as better and effective treatment along with a concluding outlook on the scope and challenges in the implication of cancer stem cells in translational oncology.

  3. Floating Offshore Wind in California: Gross Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts from Two Future Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Speer, Bethany [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tegen, Suzanne [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-04-18

    Construction of the first offshore wind farm in the United States began in 2015, using fixed platform structures that are appropriate for shallow seafloors, like those located off of the East Coast and mid-Atlantic. However, floating platforms, which have yet to be deployed commercially, will likely need to anchor to the deeper seafloor if deployed off of the West Coast. To analyze the employment and economic potential for floating offshore wind along the West Coast, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) has commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to analyze two hypothetical, large-scale deployment scenarios for California: 16 GW of offshore wind by 2050 (Scenario A) and 10 GW of offshore wind by 2050 (Scenario B). The results of this analysis can be used to better understand the general scales of economic opportunities that could result from offshore wind development. Results show total state gross domestic product (GDP) impacts of $16.2 billion in Scenario B or $39.7 billion in Scenario A for construction; and $3.5 billion in Scenario B or $7.9 billion in Scenario A for the operations phases.

  4. Bariatric surgery and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: current and potential future treatments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akira eSasaki

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH are increasingly common cause of chronic liver disease worldwide. The diagnosis of NASH is challenging as most affected patients are symptom-free and the role of routine screening is not clearly established. Most patients with severe obesity who undergo bariatric surgery have NAFLD, which is associated insulin resistance, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM, hypertension, and obesity-related dyslipidemia. The effective treatment for NAFLD is weight reduction through lifestyle modifications, antiobesity medication, or bariatric surgery. Among these treatments, bariatric surgery is the most reliable method for achieving substantial, sustained weight loss. This procedure is safe when performed by a skilled surgeon, and the benefits include reduced weight, improved quality of life, decreased obesity-related comorbidities, and increased life expectancy. Further research is urgently needed to determine the best use of bariatric surgery with NAFLD patients at high risk of developing liver cirrhosis and its role in modulating complications of NAFLD, such as T2DM and cardiovascular disease. The current evidence suggests that bariatric surgery for patients with severe obesity decreases the grade of steatosis, hepatic inflammation, and fibrosis. However, further long-term studies are required to confirm the true effects before recommending bariatric surgery as a potential treatment for nonalcoholic steatohepatitis.

  5. Microalgae Potential and Multiple Roles—Current Progress and Future Prospects—An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balasubramani Ravindran

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Substantial progress has been made in algal technologies in past few decades. Initially, microalgae drew the attention of the scientific community as a renewable source of biofuels due to its high productivity over a short period of time and potential of significant lipid accumulation. As of now, a technological upsurge has elaborated its scope in phycoremediation of both organic and inorganic pollutants. The dual role of microalgae—i.e., phycoremediation coupled with energy production—is well established, however, commercially, algal biofuel production is not yet sustainable due to high energy inputs. Efforts are being made to make the algal biofuel economy through modification in the cultivation conditions, harvesting, and extraction of value added products. Recent studies have demonstrated algal biomass production with various types of wastewater and industrial effluents. Similarly, the recent advent of eco-friendly harvesting technologies—such as low-cost green coagulants, electrochemical harvesting, etc.—are energy efficient and economical. Contemporary improvement in efficient lipid extraction from biomass will make algal biodiesel economical. The absolute extraction of all the value added products from algal biomass, either whole cell or lipid extracted biomass, in a complete biorefinery approach will be more economical and eco-friendly.

  6. Environmental assessment of waste management in Greenland: current practice and potential future developments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eisted, Rasmus; Christensen, Thomas Højlund

    2013-01-01

    The majority of the waste in Greenland is disposed of in open dumps or incinerated in simple small-scale incinerators. There are relatively few environmental regulations that control the emissions of leachate, landfill gas and/or flue gases from incineration. Only some scrap metal and hazardous...

  7. An assessment of the current and potential future natural and anthropogenic issues facing migratory shorebirds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sutherland, W.J.; Alves, J.A.; Chang, C.H.; Davidson, D.C.; Finlayson, C.M.; Gill, J.A.; Gill, R.E.; González, P.M.; Gunnarsson, T.G.; Kleijn, D.; Spray, C.J.; Szekely, T.; Thompson, D.B.A.

    2012-01-01

    We review the conservation issues facing migratory shorebird populations that breed in temperate regions and use wetlands in the non-breeding season. Shorebirds are excellent model organisms for understanding ecological, behavioural and evolutionary processes and are often used as indicators of wetl

  8. Observed change of the standardized precipitation index, its potential cause and implications to future climate change in the Amazon region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wenhong; Fu, Rong; Juárez, Robinson I Negrón; Fernandes, Katia

    2008-05-27

    Observations show that the standard precipitation index (SPI) over the southern Amazon region decreased in the period of 1970-1999 by 0.32 per decade, indicating an increase in dry conditions. Simulations of constant pre-industrial climate with recent climate models indicate a low probability (p=0%) that the trends are due to internal climate variability. When the 23 models are forced with either anthropogenic factors or both anthropogenic and external natural factors, approximately 13% of sampled 30-year SPI trends from the models are found to be within the range of the observed SPI trend at 95% confidence level. This suggests a possibility of anthropogenic and external forcing of climate change in the southern Amazon. On average, the models project no changes in the frequency of occurrence of low SPI values in the future; however, those models which produce more realistic SPI climatology, variability and trend over the period 1970-1999 show more of a tendency towards more negative values of SPI in the future. The analysis presented here suggests a potential anthropogenic influence on Amazon drying, which warrants future, more in-depth, study.

  9. Steps toward a globally available malaria vaccine: harnessing the potential of algae for future low cost vaccines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Carla S; Mayfield, Stephen P

    2013-01-01

    Malaria is an infectious disease that threatens half of the world's population. This debilitating disease is caused by infection from parasites of the genus Plasmodium. Insecticides, bed nets and drug therapies have lowered the prevalence and death rate associated with malaria but this disease continues to plague many populations around the world. In recent years, many organizations have suggested developing methods for a complete eradication of malaria. The most straightforward and effective method for this potential eradication will be through the development of a low-cost vaccine. To achieve eradication, it will be necessary to develop new vaccine candidates and novel systems for both the production and delivery of these vaccines. Recently, the green algae Chlamydomonas reinhardtii has been used for the recombinant expression of malaria vaccine candidates including the transmission blocking vaccine candidate Pfs48/45. Here, we discuss the potential of this research on the future development of a low-cost malaria vaccine candidate.

  10. Assessment of the phytoextraction potential of high biomass crop plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hernandez-Allica, Javier [NEIKER-tecnalia, Basque Institute of Agricultural Research and Development, c/Berreaga 1, E-48160 Derio (Spain); Becerril, Jose M. [Department of Plant Biology and Ecology, University of the Basque Country, P.O. Box 644, E-48080 Bilbao (Spain); Garbisu, Carlos [NEIKER-tecnalia, Basque Institute of Agricultural Research and Development, c/Berreaga 1, E-48160 Derio (Spain)], E-mail: cgarbisu@neiker.net

    2008-03-15

    A hydroponic screening method was used to identify high biomass crop plants with the ability to accumulate metals. Highest values of shoot accumulation were found in maize cv. Ranchero, rapeseed cv. Karat, and cardoon cv. Peralta for Pb (18 753 mg kg{sup -1}), Zn (10 916 mg kg{sup -1}), and Cd (242 mg kg{sup -1}), respectively. Subsequently, we tested the potential of these three cultivars for the phytoextraction of a metal spiked compost, finding out that, in cardoon and maize plants, increasing Zn and Cd concentrations led to lower values of root and shoot DW. By contrast, rapeseed shoot growth was not significantly affected by Cd concentration. Finally, a metal polluted soil was used to check these cultivars' phytoextraction capacity. Although the soil was phytotoxic enough to prevent the growth of cardoon and rapeseed plants, maize plants phytoextracted 3.7 mg Zn pot{sup -1}. We concluded that the phytoextraction performance of cultivars varies depending on the screening method used. - The phytoextraction performance of cultivars varies significantly depending on the screening method used.

  11. Assessment of flavaglines as potential chikungunya virus entry inhibitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wintachai, Phitchayapak; Thuaud, Frédéric; Basmadjian, Christine; Roytrakul, Sittiruk; Ubol, Sukathida; Désaubry, Laurent; Smith, Duncan R

    2015-03-01

    Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a re-emerging mosquito-borne alphavirus that recently caused large epidemics in islands in, and countries around, the Indian Ocean. There is currently no specific drug for therapeutic treatment or for use as a prophylactic agent against infection and no commercially available vaccine. Prohibitin has been identified as a receptor protein used by chikungunya virus to enter mammalian cells. Recently, synthetic sulfonyl amidines and flavaglines (FLs), a class of naturally occurring plant compounds with potent anti-cancer and cytoprotective and neuroprotective activities, have been shown to interact directly with prohibitin. This study therefore sought to determine whether three prohibitin ligands (sulfonyl amidine 1 m and the flavaglines FL3 and FL23) were able to inhibit CHIKV infection of mammalian Hek293T/17 cells. All three compounds inhibited infection and reduced virus production when cells were treated before infection but not when added after infection. Pretreatment of cells for only 15 minutes prior to infection followed by washing out of the compound resulted in significant inhibition of entry and virus production. These results suggest that further investigation of prohibitin ligands as potential Chikungunya virus entry inhibitors is warranted.

  12. Alluvial Diamond Resource Potential and Production Capacity Assessment of Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirico, Peter G.; Malpeli, Katherine C.; Anum, Solomon; Phillips, Emily C.

    2010-01-01

    In May of 2000, a meeting was convened in Kimberley, South Africa, and attended by representatives of the diamond industry and leaders of African governments to develop a certification process intended to assure that rough, exported diamonds were free of conflictual concerns. This meeting was supported later in 2000 by the United Nations in a resolution adopted by the General Assembly. By 2002, the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme (KPCS) was ratified and signed by both diamond-producing and diamond-importing countries. Over 70 countries were included as members at the end of 2007. To prevent trade in 'conflict' diamonds while protecting legitimate trade, the KPCS requires that each country set up an internal system of controls to prevent conflict diamonds from entering any imported or exported shipments of rough diamonds. Every diamond or diamond shipment must be accompanied by a Kimberley Process (KP) certificate and be contained in tamper-proof packaging. The objective of this study was to assess the alluvial diamond resource endowment and current production capacity of the alluvial diamond-mining sector in Ghana. A modified volume and grade methodology was used to estimate the remaining diamond reserves within the Birim and Bonsa diamond fields. The production capacity of the sector was estimated using a formulaic expression of the number of workers reported in the sector, their productivity, and the average grade of deposits mined. This study estimates that there are approximately 91,600,000 carats of alluvial diamonds remaining in both the Birim and Bonsa diamond fields: 89,000,000 carats in the Birim and 2,600,000 carats in the Bonsa. Production capacity is calculated to be 765,000 carats per year, based on the formula used and available data on the number of workers and worker productivity. Annual production is highly dependent on the international diamond market and prices, the numbers of seasonal workers actively mining in the sector, and

  13. Ambulatory Assessment in the Research on Aging: Contemporary and Future Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brose, Annette; Ebner-Priemer, Ulrich W

    2015-01-01

    Older adults have surprisingly high levels of well-being, which has been referred to as a paradox in the past. Improved emotion regulation has been suggested to underlie these high levels of well-being. Later life is also a period with enhanced exposure to critical life events, and this comes with risks. During such times, and towards the end of life, emotional well-being may and eventually does decline. We suggest that ambulatory assessment (AA) is ideally suited for the investigation of the above phenomena and for intervention purposes. More precisely, AA can be used to thoroughly examine within-person processes of emotion regulation, including the multiple levels on which emotions occur (physiology, experience, behavior, context, and nonverbal expressions). It thereby provides a basis for understanding competent emotion regulation, the well-being paradox, and emotionally critical periods. Such insights can be utilized to detect person-specific critical periods and for designing immediate person-specific interventions. Although this is still a vision, the benefits of such an approach seem invaluable. The major part of this paper is organized around three general principles that we suggest to further tap the potential of AA in aging research, namely (1) identify within-subject processes and their relations to important life outcomes; (2) capitalize on the full scope of AA technology via multivariate assessments, and (3) combine real-time monitoring with real-time interventions.

  14. Independent Review of Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Review Panel: Soroosh Sorooshian, Ph.D., Panel Chairperson, University of California, Irvine; Jan M. H. Hendrickx, Ph.D., New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology; Binayak P. Mohanty, Ph.D., Texas A& M University; Scott W. Tyler, Ph.D., University of Nevada, Reno; Tian-Chyi Jim Yeh, Ph.D., University of Arizona -- ORISE Review Facilitators: Robert S. Turner, Ph.D., Technical Review Group Manager, Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education; Brian R. Herndon, Project Manager, Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education; Russ Manning, Technical Writer/Editor, Haselwood Enterprises, Inc.

    2008-08-30

    The DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) tasked Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) with providing an independent expert review of the documented model and prediction results for net infiltration of water into the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain. The specific purpose of the model, as documented in the report MDL-NBS-HS-000023, Rev. 01, is “to provide a spatial representation, including epistemic and aleatory uncertainty, of the predicted mean annual net infiltration at the Yucca Mountain site ...” (p. 1-1) The expert review panel assembled by ORISE concluded that the model report does not provide a technically credible spatial representation of net infiltration at Yucca Mountain. Specifically, the ORISE Review Panel found that: • A critical lack of site-specific meteorological, surface, and subsurface information prevents verification of (i) the net infiltration estimates, (ii) the uncertainty estimates of parameters caused by their spatial variability, and (iii) the assumptions used by the modelers (ranges and distributions) for the characterization of parameters. The paucity of site-specific data used by the modeling team for model implementation and validation is a major deficiency in this effort. • The model does not incorporate at least one potentially important hydrologic process. Subsurface lateral flow is not accounted for by the model, and the assumption that the effect of subsurface lateral flow is negligible is not adequately justified. This issue is especially critical for the wetter climate periods. This omission may be one reason the model results appear to underestimate net infiltration beneath wash environments and therefore imprecisely represent the spatial variability of net infiltration. • While the model uses assumptions consistently, such as uniform soil depths and a constant vegetation rooting depth, such assumptions may not be appropriate for this net infiltration simulation because they

  15. Associations between dairy foods, diabetes, and metabolic health: potential mechanisms and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirahatake, Kristin M.; Slavin, Joanne; Maki, Kevin C.; Adams, Sean H.

    2017-01-01

    Epidemiological evidence supports an inverse relationship between adequate intake of dairy foods and susceptibility to type 2 diabetes (T2D). The biological mechanisms responsible for this association remain to be established. This review provides a current perspective on proposed mechanisms that may underlie these effects, and highlights how randomized clinical trials can be applied to investigate these relationships. Results from epidemiological studies generally support that consumption of milk and dairy products is associated with a lower incidence of T2D or improvements in glucose homeostasis indices, and studies of animal and cell models support a positive effect of dairy-rich diets or components on metabolic and inflammation factors relevant to T2D and insulin resistance. Emerging evidence indicates that dairy components that alter mitochondrial function (e.g., leucine actions on silent information regulator transcript 1 (SIRT1)-associated pathways), promote gut microbial population shifts, or influence inflammation and cardiovascular function (e.g., Ca-regulated peptides calcitonin gene-related peptide [CGRP] or calcitonin) should be considered as possible mechanistic factors linking dairy intake with lower risk for T2D. The possibility that dairy-derived trans-palmitoleic acid (tC16:1) has metabolic bioactivities has also been proposed. Pre-clinical and clinical studies focusing specifically on these parameters are needed to validate hypotheses regarding the potential roles of dairy products and their components on the determinants of glucose tolerance, particularly insulin sensitivity, pancreatic endocrine function, and inflammation in individuals at-risk for T2D development. Such experiments would complement epidemiological studies and add to the evidence base for recommendations regarding consumption of dairy products and their individual components. PMID:24636056

  16. Assessing 'Dangerous Climate Change': Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Demotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrum, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Conrad; VanSusteren, Lise; VonShuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C.

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of approx.500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of approx.1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2 C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4 C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  17. Unlocking the Treasures of the Ocean: Current Assessment and Future Perspectives of Seafloor Resources (C.F Gauss Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jegen, Marion

    2016-04-01

    Oceans cover 70% of the Earth's surface, and there is reason to believe that the wealth of mineral and carbon resources on the seafloor is similar to deposits on land. While off-shore energy resources such as oil and gas are nowadays regarded as conventional, energy resources in form of methane hydrates and seafloor mineral deposits are yet unconventional and at best marginally economic. However, taking into account global population growth, geopolitics and technological development (both in terms of increasing industrialization and possibility to explore and mine seafloor resources), these resources might play a more fundamental role in the future. Resource assessment and understanding of the geological formation process of resources are topics in marine geosciences with broad relevance to society. The lecture presents an overview of the geophysical exploration of the seafloor and its resource potential. Starting from the link of physical parameter anomalies associated with resources, I will explore marine technological developments on how to sense them remotely from the seafloor. Also the question will be addressed of how well we can actually quantify the amount of resources from geophysical data. The process will be illustrated based on theoretical work as well as case studies from around the world.

  18. On the future of civilian plutonium: An assessment of technological impediments to nuclear terrorism and proliferation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avedon, Roger Edmond

    This dissertation addresses the value of developing diversion- and theft-resistant nuclear power technology, given uncertain future demand for nuclear power, and uncertain risks of nuclear terrorism and of proliferation from the reprocessing of civilian plutonium. The methodology comprises four elements: Economics. An economic growth model coupled with market penetration effects for plutonium and for the hypothetical new technology provides a range of estimates for future nuclear demand. A flow model accounts for the longevity of capital assets (nuclear plants) over time. Terrorism. The commercial nuclear fuel cycle may provide a source of fissile material for terrorists seeking to construct a crude nuclear device. An option value model is used to estimate the effects of the hypothetical new technology on reducing the probability of theft. A game theoretic model is used to explore the deterrence value of physical security and then to draw conclusions about how learning on the part of terrorists or security forces might affect the theft estimate. The principal uncertainties in the theft model can be updated using Bayesian techniques as new data emerge. Proliferation. Access to fissile material is the principal technical impediment to a state's acquisition of nuclear weapons. A game theoretic model is used to determine the circumstances under which a state may proliferate via diversion. The model shows that the hypothetical new technology will have little value for counter-proliferation if diversion is not a preferred proliferation method. A technology policy analysis of the choice of proliferation method establishes that diversion is unlikely to be used because it has no constituency among the important parties to the decision, namely the political leadership, the scientific establishment, and the military. Value. The decision whether to develop a diversion- and theft-resistant fuel cycle depends on the perceived value of avoiding nuclear terrorism and proliferation

  19. Future mobility case studies. Life cycle assessments of BEVs and ICVs with a global perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Hongrui; Riera-Palou, Xavier; Tait, Nigel [Shell Global Solutions (United Kingdom), Chester (United Kingdom). Shell Technology Center Thornton; Balthasar, Felix; Warnecke, Wolfgang [Shell Global Solutions (Deutschland) GmbH, Hamburg (Germany). PAE-Labor

    2012-11-01

    To highlight the potential risks associated with simplification, we present a relevant case study on electric vehicles, where the outcome of the analysis changes substantially with the methodological/system boundary choices made. Electric vehicles have increasingly gained worldwide interest as one of the most promising potential long-term solutions to sustainable personal mobility; in particular, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) offer zero tailpipe emissions enabling them not only to reduce transport GHG emissions but also to reduce other regulated emissions (e.g. smog). However, their true ability to contribute to GHG emissions reductions can only be properly assessed by comparing a full life cycle assessment of their GHG emissions with a similar assessment for conventional internal combustion vehicles (ICVs). In this study, we have carried out an analysis for vehicles typical of those expected to be introduced in 2012 in Western Europe, the U.S. and China, taking into account the impact of three important factors: (a) like-forlike vehicle comparison and effect of real-world driving conditions, (b) accounting for the GHG emissions associated with meeting the additional electricity demand for charging the batteries, and (c) the GHG emissions associated with the vehicle life cycle (e.g. manufacture and disposal, etc). We find that BEVs can deliver significant GHG savings compared to ICVs providing that the grid GHG intensity used to charge the batteries is sufficiently low. In particular, BEVs perform best relative to ICVs in terms of GHG emissions in low speed (e.g. urban) driving and when lightly loaded with weight and auxiliaries. However, vehicle life cycle emissions are higher for BEVs than ICVs due to the GHG emissions associated with battery manufacture. Furthermore, our analysis illustrates that it is inappropriate to draw general conclusions about the relative GHG performance of BEVs and ICVs without due reference to the context - such relative performance

  20. Assessed Potential of Conifers as Proxy Paleo-wind Stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, W. L.

    2002-12-01

    A new method for extracting wind direction and velocity information from tree rings has been developed and applied to more than 60 conifers near two weather stations on the Olympic Peninsula of northwest Washington. Utilizing measurements from cores and full cross-sections, a mechanical wind-drag bending-moment model relates ring eccentricity to the horizontal component of unbalanced forces, principally wind, affecting the tree. Straight conifers on level ground typically develop thicker rings on the downwind side. The two study areas have very different wind patterns. At Port Angeles dominant wind is the westerly sea breeze, but at Quillayute dominant winds are southeast and southwest. Tested weather station record wind parameters include: annual (and seasonal) mean and summed velocity for hourly or peak daily observations. Sum velocity yields much higher significance than mean velocity in regressions against growth eccentricity, suggesting that tree response may be related to momentum transfer. Correlation significance increases when a 3-year running mean is applied to smooth out measurement error, delayed response to wind, and spatial wind variability; and when several trees are averaged, dispersing events such as limb loss. Linear regression of the vector resultants of eccentricity of Douglas-fir against annual sum velocity vector records at Port Angeles yields significant (P(t)wind. Scalar sum velocity and ring-width eccentricity data from these and other species are significantly correlated at both areas. Seasonal assessment of eccentricity response to wind at the Pacific coast suggests that very high velocities, especially during growth season, promote thinner rings on the downwind side. In such cases predicted response is delayed by up to 8 years. Rainfall is a significant co-contributor to eccentricity only at the wetter coastal sites, and some delayed response there seems triggered by wet growth season conditions. Wavelet analysis of eccentricity of old

  1. Atmospheric ethanol in London and the potential impacts of future fuel formulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunmore, Rachel E; Whalley, Lisa K; Sherwen, Tomás; Evans, Mathew J; Heard, Dwayne E; Hopkins, James R; Lee, James D; Lewis, Alastair C; Lidster, Richard T; Rickard, Andrew R; Hamilton, Jacqueline F

    2016-07-18

    increased concentrations of ethanol and acetaldehyde from primary emissions impacts both radical and NOx cycling over Europe, resulting in significant regional impacts on NOy speciation and O3 concentrations, with potential changes to human exposure to air pollutants.

  2. Infrared cameras are potential traceable "fixed points" for future thermometry studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yap Kannan, R; Keresztes, K; Hussain, S; Coats, T J; Bown, M J

    2015-01-01

    The National physical laboratory (NPL) requires "fixed points" whose temperatures have been established by the International Temperature Scale of 1990 (ITS 90) be used for device calibration. In practice, "near" blackbody radiators together with the standard platinum resistance thermometer is accepted as a standard. The aim of this study was to report the correlation and limits of agreement (LOA) of the thermal infrared camera and non-contact infrared temporal thermometer against each other and the "near" blackbody radiator. Temperature readings from an infrared thermography camera (FLIR T650sc) and a non-contact infrared temporal thermometer (Hubdic FS-700) were compared to a near blackbody (Hyperion R blackbody model 982) at 0.5 °C increments between 20-40 °C. At each increment, blackbody cavity temperature was confirmed with the platinum resistance thermometer. Measurements were taken initially with the thermal infrared camera followed by the infrared thermometer, with each device mounted in turn on a stand at a fixed distance of 20 cm and 5 cm from the blackbody aperture, respectively. The platinum thermometer under-estimated the blackbody temperature by 0.015 °C (95% LOA: -0.08 °C to 0.05 °C), in contrast to the thermal infrared camera and infrared thermometer which over-estimated the blackbody temperature by 0.16 °C (95% LOA: 0.03 °C to 0.28 °C) and 0.75 °C (95% LOA: -0.30 °C to 1.79 °C), respectively. Infrared thermometer over-estimates thermal infrared camera measurements by 0.6 °C (95% LOA: -0.46 °C to 1.65 °C). In conclusion, the thermal infrared camera is a potential temperature reference "fixed point" that could substitute mercury thermometers. However, further repeatability and reproducibility studies will be required with different models of thermal infrared cameras.

  3. Predicting the current and future potential distributions of lymphatic filariasis in Africa using maximum entropy ecological niche modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slater, Hannah; Michael, Edwin

    2012-01-01

    Modelling the spatial distributions of human parasite species is crucial to understanding the environmental determinants of infection as well as for guiding the planning of control programmes. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to map the current potential distribution of the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF), in Africa, and to estimate how future changes in climate and population could affect its spread and burden across the continent. We used 508 community-specific infection presence data collated from the published literature in conjunction with five predictive environmental/climatic and demographic variables, and a maximum entropy niche modelling method to construct the first ecological niche maps describing potential distribution and burden of LF in Africa. We also ran the best-fit model against climate projections made by the HADCM3 and CCCMA models for 2050 under A2a and B2a scenarios to simulate the likely distribution of LF under future climate and population changes. We predict a broad geographic distribution of LF in Africa extending from the west to the east across the middle region of the continent, with high probabilities of occurrence in the Western Africa compared to large areas of medium probability interspersed with smaller areas of high probability in Central and Eastern Africa and in Madagascar. We uncovered complex relationships between predictor ecological niche variables and the probability of LF occurrence. We show for the first time that predicted climate change and population growth will expand both the range and risk of LF infection (and ultimately disease) in an endemic region. We estimate that populations at risk to LF may range from 543 and 804 million currently, and that this could rise to between 1.65 to 1.86 billion in the future depending on the climate scenario used and thresholds applied to signify infection presence.

  4. Predicting the current and future potential distributions of lymphatic filariasis in Africa using maximum entropy ecological niche modelling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannah Slater

    Full Text Available Modelling the spatial distributions of human parasite species is crucial to understanding the environmental determinants of infection as well as for guiding the planning of control programmes. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to map the current potential distribution of the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF, in Africa, and to estimate how future changes in climate and population could affect its spread and burden across the continent. We used 508 community-specific infection presence data collated from the published literature in conjunction with five predictive environmental/climatic and demographic variables, and a maximum entropy niche modelling method to construct the first ecological niche maps describing potential distribution and burden of LF in Africa. We also ran the best-fit model against climate projections made by the HADCM3 and CCCMA models for 2050 under A2a and B2a scenarios to simulate the likely distribution of LF under future climate and population changes. We predict a broad geographic distribution of LF in Africa extending from the west to the east across the middle region of the continent, with high probabilities of occurrence in the Western Africa compared to large areas of medium probability interspersed with smaller areas of high probability in Central and Eastern Africa and in Madagascar. We uncovered complex relationships between predictor ecological niche variables and the probability of LF occurrence. We show for the first time that predicted climate change and population growth will expand both the range and risk of LF infection (and ultimately disease in an endemic region. We estimate that populations at risk to LF may range from 543 and 804 million currently, and that this could rise to between 1.65 to 1.86 billion in the future depending on the climate scenario used and thresholds applied to signify infection presence.

  5. Modeling aeolian transport in response to succession, disturbance and future climate: Dynamic long-term risk assessment for contaminant redistribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breshears, D.D.; Kirchner, T.B.; Whicker, J.J.; Field, J.P.; Allen, C.D.

    2012-01-01

    Aeolian sediment transport is a fundamental process redistributing sediment, nutrients, and contaminants in dryland ecosystems. Over time frames of centuries or longer, horizontal sediment fluxes and associated rates of contaminant transport are likely to be influenced by succession, disturbances, and changes in climate, yet models of horizontal sediment transport that account for these fundamental factors are lacking, precluding in large part accurate assessment of human health risks associated with persistent soil-bound contaminants. We present a simple model based on empirical measurements of horizontal sediment transport (predominantly saltation) to predict potential contaminant transport rates for recently disturbed sites such as a landfill cover. Omnidirectional transport is estimated within vegetation that changes using a simple Markov model that simulates successional trajectory and considers three types of short-term disturbances (surface fire, crown fire, and drought-induced plant mortality) under current and projected climates. The model results highlight that movement of contaminated soil is sensitive to vegetation dynamics and increases substantially (e.g., > fivefold) when disturbance and/or future climate are considered. The time-dependent responses in horizontal sediment fluxes and associated contaminant fluxes were sensitive to variability in the timing of disturbance, with longer intervals between disturbance allowing woody plants to become dominant and crown fire and drought abruptly reducing woody plant cover. Our results, which have direct implications for contaminant transport and landfill management in the specific context of our assessment, also have general relevance because they highlight the need to more fully account for vegetation dynamics, disturbance, and changing climate in aeolian process studies. ?? 2011.

  6. Assessing the impacts of changing precipitation and temperature extremes on the current and future ecohydrology of grassland ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunsell, N. A.; Nippert, J. B.; Ocheltree, T.

    2012-12-01

    Extreme weather events have profound impacts on water and carbon cycling. However, events of similar magnitude may have very different impacts depending upon the timing of the event in the phenological cycle. We assess these impacts of extreme daily weather events including precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature using data collected from the Konza Prairie Long Term Ecological Research site in the central U.S. We utilize the long term weather and biomass collection data at the LTER site to examine the historical variability of extreme events and the impacts on annual carbon dynamics. Timescales of interactions between daily weather and fluxes are quantified through a multiscale information theoretic approach. In addition, we quantify the impacts of the timing and magnitude of extreme events through a Critical Climate Period (CCP) analysis. Results indicate a strong sensitivity to spring precipitation and summer temperature. Using six years of eddy covariance data, we can isolate more of the biophysical mechanisms governing the responses to extreme weather events. Of particular interest is the heat wave of July, 2011, where daily maximum temperatures were over 38 C for 24 consecutive days and resulted in drastically reduced above ground carbon allocation than in previous years. In addition, we employ the Agro-BGC model to assess the biophysical processes responsible for determining the response of water and carbon dynamics to extreme weather events. This is done by employing a stochastic weather generator with prescribed changes in annual precipitation and temperature conistent with GCM projections. Developing a more thorough understanding of extreme events and the differential responses due to the timing and magnitude of the events will potentially assist in the mitigation of future climate change.

  7. Assessing the ecosystem service potential of Tucson AZ's urban forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavao-Zuckerman, M.

    2011-12-01

    Urbanization is arguably one of the most dramatic forms of landscape change, and an important anthropogenic influence on the structure and function of ecosystems. Cities have obvious impacts on local ecologies and environments, such as shifts in species diversity and alteration of local microclimates. While scientists are now familiar with many of these localized impacts of urbanization, cities and suburban areas contribute to 10-15 % of surface land cover in the conterminous U.S., pointing to the potential, yet poorly understood, contribution of cities to regional, national, and global carbon (C) and energy budgets. As cities continue to expand urban ecologists place more emphasis on understanding the functions of urban ecosystems and the ecosystem services (e.g. habitat, air, and water quality) that cities provide. While studies demonstrate that the urban environment alters the structure and function of remnant patches of native ecosystems relative to their non-urban counterparts, the ability of restoration, planning, and design to improve the provision of ecosystem services is a new approach within ecology. One strategy involves green urban design, or using ecological principles for planning or reinvigorating certain ecological processes, in cities. Increasing the amount of vegetative cover can reduce this effect by reinforcing ecosystem services in cities, including shading of surfaces, promotion of cooling through evapotranspiration, and the sequestration of atmospheric CO2 in plant tissues and soils. However, the on-the-ground reality of such strategies is relatively unknown. A pilot study is being conducted in Tucson, AZ to investigate the impact of increasing the cover of trees in the urban landscape on local microclimates and the urban heat island. Trees (Velvet Mesquite, Chilean Mesquite, and Desert Willow) were planted in two neighborhoods in Tucson in 1990. We are collecting data during the summer 2011 monsoon (DBH, crown volume, and hemispherical

  8. Biomass potential assessment in Central and Eastern European Countries and opportunities for the Ukraine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faaij, A.; Hoogzaad, J.; Van Dam, J.; Smeets, E.; Lewandowski, I.

    2004-12-15

    This paper discusses an approach to determine future biomass production potentials and cost supply curves based on a bottom-up approach. The approach uses detailed data on NUTS3 level (the nomenclature of territorial units for statistics (NUTS) provides a single, uniform breakdown of the economic territory of the European Union). The NUTS is the territorial classification for the compilation of regional accounts for Central and Eastern European Countries and results in biomass supply curves for different scenario conditions that could occur in a European setting. A first assessment of the Ukraine reveals that even with modest assumptions, the Ukrainian agricultural sector could supply 2,000 to 3,000 PJ of primary biomass per year on medium term (i.e. 2010-2015). Cost levels of liquid fuels produced from biomass (such as methanol or Fischer-Tropsch diesel) could end up around 6 Euro/GJ, which is about competitive with production costs of diesel and gasoline from mineral oil. Given the growing demand for biofuels in particular in the EU, biofuels could prove an extremely valuable export commodity for the Ukraine on shorter term already.

  9. Health and environmental risk assessment associated with a potential recovery of the Russian submarine K-27

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hosseini, A.; Amundsen, I.; Brown, J.E.; Dowdall, M.; Standring, W. [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority/CERAD CoE (Norway); Bartnicki, J. [Norwegian Meteorological Institute/CERAD CoE (Norway); Karcher, M. [O.A.Sys - Ocean Atmosphere Systems GmbH (Germany); Lind, O.C.; Salbu, B. [Norwegian University of Life Sciences/CERAD CoE (Norway)

    2014-07-01

    The nuclear submarine K-27 is one of several objects with spent nuclear fuel (SNF) which has been dumped in the Arctic. It contained two liquid metal reactors (LMRs) of 70 MW maximum thermal power each and used Pb-Bi as the coolant. The reactors were loaded with 180 kg of U-235 at an enrichment of 90 %. In September 1981, the submarine was sunk in the shallow waters of Stepovoy Fjord at an estimated depth of 30 m. Concerns have been expressed by various parties regarding the issue of dumped nuclear waste in the Kara Sea and in particular the submarine K-27. To address these concerns and to provide a better basis for evaluating possible radiological impact (especially as a consequence of a potential recovery of the submarine), an environmental impact assessment has been undertaken. The study is based on construction of different hypothetical accident scenarios and evaluating possible associated consequences for human and the environment. In general, three main scenarios seem probable and thus appropriate for consideration. One is the 'zero- alternative', i.e. investigate the current and future impact assuming no interventions. The second considers an accidental scenario involving the raising of the submarine and the third an accidental scenario related to the transportation of the submarine to shore for defueling. With regards to the accidental scenarios related to raising and transportation of the submarine, two alternatives can be considered depending on where and how a hypothetical accident will take place and whether the subsequent releases occur under water or at the water surface. The issue of an uncontrolled chain reaction occurring as a result of a potential recovery of the submarine will be included in the assessment. The work includes application of state of the art 3D hydrodynamic and atmospheric dispersion models to investigate the transport, distribution and fate of relevant radionuclides following a hypothetical accident in aquatic and

  10. The role of the uncertainty in assessing future scenarios of water shortage in alluvial aquifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romano, Emanuele; Camici, Stefania; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso; Guyennon, Nicolas; Preziosi, Elisabetta

    2015-04-01

    There are many evidences that the combined effects of variations in precipitation and temperature due to climate change can result in a significant change of the recharge to groundwater at different time scales. A possible reduction of effective infiltration can result in a significant decrease, temporary or permanent, of the availability of the resource and, consequently, the sustainable pumping rate should be reassessed. In addition to this, one should also consider the so called indirect impacts of climate change, resulting from human intervention (e.g. augmentation of abstractions) which are feared to be even more important than the direct ones in the medium term: thus, a possible increase of episodes of shortage (i.e. the inability of the groundwater system to completely supply the water demand) can result both from change in the climate forcing and change in the demand. In order to assess future scenarios of water shortage a modelling chain is often used. It includes: 1) the use of General Circulation Models to estimate changes in temperature and precipitation; 2) downscaling procedures to match modeling scenarios to the observed meteorological time series; 3) soil-atmosphere modelling to estimate the time variation of the recharge to the aquifer; 4) groundwater flow models to simulate the water budget and piezometric head evolution; 5) future scenarios of groundwater quantitative status that include scenarios of demand variation. It is well known that each of these processing steps is affected by an intrinsic uncertainty that propagates through the whole chain leading to a final uncertainty on the piezometric head scenarios. The estimate of such an uncertainty is a key point for a correct management of groundwater resources, in case of water shortage due to prolonged droughts as well as for planning purposes. This study analyzes the uncertainty of the processing chain from GCM scenarios to its impact on an alluvial aquifer in terms of exploitation

  11. A Future-Based Risk Assessment for the Survivability of Long Range Strike Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-03-01

    not reflect the official policy or position of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States Government...projections of current situations into the future to develop alternative scenarios, and (in some cases) devising a future world then “ backcasting ...Council developed five future world scenarios. They began by establishing some basic economic, social and policy factors, then refined their models

  12. How far could the alien boatman Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis spread? Worldwide estimation of its current and future potential distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guareschi, Simone; Coccia, Cristina; Sánchez-Fernández, David; Carbonell, José Antonio; Velasco, Josefa; Boyero, Luz; Green, Andy J; Millán, Andrés

    2013-01-01

    Invasions of alien species are considered among the least reversible human impacts, with diversified effects on aquatic ecosystems. Since prevention is the most cost-effective way to avoid biodiversity loss and ecosystem problems, one challenge in ecological research is to understand the limits of the fundamental niche of the species in order to estimate how far invasive species could spread. Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis (Tvv) is a corixid (Hemiptera) originally distributed in North America, but cited as an alien species in three continents. Its impact on native communities is under study, but it is already the dominant species in several saline wetlands and represents a rare example of an aquatic alien insect. This study aims: i) to estimate areas with suitable environmental conditions for Tvv at a global scale, thus identifying potential new zones of invasion; and ii) to test possible changes in this global potential distribution under a climate change scenario. Potential distributions were estimated by applying a multidimensional envelope procedure based on both climatic data, obtained from observed occurrences, and thermal physiological data. Our results suggest Tvv may expand well beyond its current range and find inhabitable conditions in temperate areas along a wide range of latitudes, with an emphasis on coastal areas of Europe, Northern Africa, Argentina, Uruguay, Australia, New Zealand, Myanmar, India, the western boundary between USA and Canada, and areas of the Arabian Peninsula. When considering a future climatic scenario, the suitability area of Tvv showed only limited changes compared with the current potential distribution. These results allow detection of potential contact zones among currently colonized areas and potential areas of invasion. We also identified zones with a high level of suitability that overlap with areas recognized as global hotspots of biodiversity. Finally, we present hypotheses about possible means of spread, focusing on

  13. How far could the alien boatman Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis spread? Worldwide estimation of its current and future potential distribution.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Guareschi

    Full Text Available Invasions of alien species are considered among the least reversible human impacts, with diversified effects on aquatic ecosystems. Since prevention is the most cost-effective way to avoid biodiversity loss and ecosystem problems, one challenge in ecological research is to understand the limits of the fundamental niche of the species in order to estimate how far invasive species could spread. Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis (Tvv is a corixid (Hemiptera originally distributed in North America, but cited as an alien species in three continents. Its impact on native communities is under study, but it is already the dominant species in several saline wetlands and represents a rare example of an aquatic alien insect. This study aims: i to estimate areas with suitable environmental conditions for Tvv at a global scale, thus identifying potential new zones of invasion; and ii to test possible changes in this global potential distribution under a climate change scenario. Potential distributions were estimated by applying a multidimensional envelope procedure based on both climatic data, obtained from observed occurrences, and thermal physiological data. Our results suggest Tvv may expand well beyond its current range and find inhabitable conditions in temperate areas along a wide range of latitudes, with an emphasis on coastal areas of Europe, Northern Africa, Argentina, Uruguay, Australia, New Zealand, Myanmar, India, the western boundary between USA and Canada, and areas of the Arabian Peninsula. When considering a future climatic scenario, the suitability area of Tvv showed only limited changes compared with the current potential distribution. These results allow detection of potential contact zones among currently colonized areas and potential areas of invasion. We also identified zones with a high level of suitability that overlap with areas recognized as global hotspots of biodiversity. Finally, we present hypotheses about possible means of

  14. Radiation binary targeted therapy for HER-2 positive breast cancers: assumptions, theoretical assessment and future directions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mundy, Daniel W [School of Nuclear Engineering, Purdue University, 400 Central Drive, West Lafayette, IN 47909 (United States); Harb, Wael [Horizon Oncology, The Care Group, Unity Medical Center, Lafayette, IN 47901 (United States); Jevremovic, Tatjana [School of Nuclear Engineering, Purdue University, 400 Central Drive, West Lafayette, IN 47909 (United States)

    2006-03-21

    neutron irradiation treatment facilities are examined for this application. The tumour boron concentrations and tumour to healthy tissue concentration ratios required to deliver 50 Gy-Eq to the tumour without exceeding 18 Gy-Eq in the skin are determined, as well as the associated therapeutic ratios. Discussion is provided to address the future research direction for assessing the feasibility of the proposed concept.

  15. Future air quality in Europe: a multi-model assessment of projected exposure to ozone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Colette

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In order to explore future air quality in Europe at the 2030 horizon, two emission scenarios developed in the framework of the Global Energy Assessment including varying assumptions on climate and energy access policies are investigated with an ensemble of six regional and global atmospheric chemistry transport models.

    A specific focus is given in the paper to the assessment of uncertainties and robustness of the projected changes in air quality. The present work relies on an ensemble of chemistry transport models giving insight into the model spread. Both regional and global scale models were involved, so that the ensemble benefits from medium-resolution approaches as well as global models that capture long-range transport. For each scenario a whole decade is modelled in order to gain statistical confidence in the results. A statistical downscaling approach is used to correct the distribution of the model projection. Last, the modelling experiment is linked to a hind-cast study published earlier, where the performances of all participating models were extensively documented.

    The analysis is presented in an exposure-based framework in order to discuss policy relevant changes. According to the emission projections, ozone precursors such as NOx will drop to 30% to 50% of their current levels, depending on the scenario. As a result, annual mean O3 will slightly increase in NOx saturated areas but the overall O3 burden will decrease substantially. Exposure to detrimental O3 levels for health (SOMO35 will be reduced down to 45% to 70% of their current levels. And the fraction of stations where present-day exceedences of daily maximumO3 is higher than 120 μg m-3 more than 25 days per year will drop from 43% down to 2 to 8%.

    We conclude that air pollution mitigation measures (present in both scenarios are the main factors leading to the

  16. How to assess the mutagenic potential of cosmetic products without animal tests?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speit, Günter

    2009-08-01

    Animal experiments (in vivo tests) currently play a key role in genotoxicity testing. Results from in vivo tests are, in many cases, decisive for the assessment of a mutagenic potential of a test compound. The Seventh Amendment to the European Cosmetics Directive will, however, ban the European marketing of cosmetic/personal care products that contain ingredients that have been tested in animal experiments. If genotoxicity testing is solely based on the currently established in vitro tests, the attrition rate for chemicals used in cosmetic products will greatly increase due to irrelevant positive in vitro test results. There is urgent need for new and/or improved in vitro genotoxicity tests and for modified test strategies. Test strategies should consider all available information on chemistry of the test substance/the chemical class (e.g. SAR, metabolic activation and dermal adsorption). Test protocols for in vitro genotoxicity tests should be sensitive and robust enough to ensure that negative results can be accepted with confidence. It should be excluded that positive in vitro test results are due to high cytotoxicity or secondary genotoxic effects which may be thresholded and/or only occur under in vitro test conditions. Consequently, further research is needed to establish the nature of thresholds in in vitro assays and to determine the potential for incorporation of mode of action data into future risk assessments. New/improved tests have to be established and validated, considering the use of (metabolically competent) primary (skin) cells, 3D skin models and cells with defined capacity for metabolic activation (e.g. genetically engineered cell lines). The sensitivity and specificity of new and improved genotoxicity tests has to be determined by testing a battery of genotoxic and non-genotoxic chemicals. New or adapted international guidelines will be needed for these tests. The establishment of such a new genotoxicity testing strategy will take time and the

  17. Assessing the Threat of Amphibian Chytrid Fungus in the Albertine Rift: Past, Present and Future.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tracie A Seimon

    Full Text Available Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd, the cause of chytridiomycosis, is a pathogenic fungus that is found worldwide and is a major contributor to amphibian declines and extinctions. We report results of a comprehensive effort to assess the distribution and threat of Bd in one of the Earth's most important biodiversity hotspots, the Albertine Rift in central Africa. In herpetological surveys conducted between 2010 and 2014, 1018 skin swabs from 17 amphibian genera in 39 sites across the Albertine Rift were tested for Bd by PCR. Overall, 19.5% of amphibians tested positive from all sites combined. Skin tissue samples from 163 amphibians were examined histologically; of these two had superficial epidermal intracorneal fungal colonization and lesions consistent with the disease chytridiomycosis. One amphibian was found dead during the surveys, and all others encountered appeared healthy. We found no evidence for Bd-induced mortality events, a finding consistent with other studies. To gain a historical perspective about Bd in the Albertine Rift, skin swabs from 232 museum-archived amphibians collected as voucher specimens from 1925-1994 were tested for Bd. Of these, one sample was positive; an Itombwe River frog (Phrynobatrachus asper collected in 1950 in the Itombwe highlands. This finding represents the earliest record of Bd in the Democratic Republic of Congo. We modeled the distribution of Bd in the Albertine Rift using MaxEnt software, and trained our model for improved predictability. Our model predicts that Bd is currently widespread across the Albertine Rift, with moderate habitat suitability extending into the lowlands. Under climatic modeling scenarios our model predicts that optimal habitat suitability of Bd will decrease causing a major range contraction of the fungus by 2080. Our baseline data and modeling predictions are important for comparative studies, especially if significant changes in amphibian health status or climactic conditions

  18. Assessing the Threat of Amphibian Chytrid Fungus in the Albertine Rift: Past, Present and Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seimon, Tracie A; Ayebare, Samuel; Sekisambu, Robert; Muhindo, Emmanuel; Mitamba, Guillain; Greenbaum, Eli; Menegon, Michele; Pupin, Fabio; McAloose, Denise; Ammazzalorso, Alyssa; Meirte, Danny; Lukwago, Wilbur; Behangana, Mathias; Seimon, Anton; Plumptre, Andrew J

    2015-01-01

    Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), the cause of chytridiomycosis, is a pathogenic fungus that is found worldwide and is a major contributor to amphibian declines and extinctions. We report results of a comprehensive effort to assess the distribution and threat of Bd in one of the Earth's most important biodiversity hotspots, the Albertine Rift in central Africa. In herpetological surveys conducted between 2010 and 2014, 1018 skin swabs from 17 amphibian genera in 39 sites across the Albertine Rift were tested for Bd by PCR. Overall, 19.5% of amphibians tested positive from all sites combined. Skin tissue samples from 163 amphibians were examined histologically; of these two had superficial epidermal intracorneal fungal colonization and lesions consistent with the disease chytridiomycosis. One amphibian was found dead during the surveys, and all others encountered appeared healthy. We found no evidence for Bd-induced mortality events, a finding consistent with other studies. To gain a historical perspective about Bd in the Albertine Rift, skin swabs from 232 museum-archived amphibians collected as voucher specimens from 1925-1994 were tested for Bd. Of these, one sample was positive; an Itombwe River frog (Phrynobatrachus asper) collected in 1950 in the Itombwe highlands. This finding represents the earliest record of Bd in the Democratic Republic of Congo. We modeled the distribution of Bd in the Albertine Rift using MaxEnt software, and trained our model for improved predictability. Our model predicts that Bd is currently widespread across the Albertine Rift, with moderate habitat suitability extending into the lowlands. Under climatic modeling scenarios our model predicts that optimal habitat suitability of Bd will decrease causing a major range contraction of the fungus by 2080. Our baseline data and modeling predictions are important for comparative studies, especially if significant changes in amphibian health status or climactic conditions are encountered

  19. Assessment of scapular positioning and function as future effect measure of shoulder interventions – an inter-examiner reliability study of the clinical assessment methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Camilla Marie; Eshøj, Henrik; Ingwersen, Kim Gordon

    2015-01-01

    only been tested for intra-examiner reliability. The objective was to investigate the inter-examiner reliability of an extended battery of clinical tests for assessing scapular positioning and function. Methods A standardized three-phase protocol for clinical reliability studies was conducted......Assessment of scapular positioning and function as future effect measure of shoulder interventions – an inter-examiner reliability study of the clinical assessment methods Eshøj H1, Ingwersen KG1, Larsen CM1, 2, Søgaard K1, Juul-Kristensen B1, 3 1 University of Southern Denmark, Institute of Sports...... in three tests due to constant measurements from one of the testers. Conclusion An extended assessment battery to investigate the inter-examiner reliability for assessing the scapular positioning and function were compiled. Systematic bias between testers appeared in some, but not all assessment methods...

  20. Models for residential- and commercial-sector energy-conservation analysis: applications, limitations, and future potential. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Henry E.; Fullen, Robert E.

    1980-09-01

    This report reviews four of the major models used by the Department of Energy (DOE) for energy conservation analyses in the residential- and commercial-building sectors. The objective is to provide a critical analysis of how these models can serve as tools for DOE and its Conservation Policy Office in evaluating and quantifying their policy and program requirements. For this, the study brings together information on the models' analytical structure and their strengths and limitations in policy applications these are then employed to assess the most-effective role for each model in addressing future issues of buildings energy-conservation policy and analysis. The four models covered are: Oak Ridge Residential Energy Model; Micro Analysis of Transfers to Households/Comprehensive Human Resources Data System (MATH/CHRDS) Model; Oak Ridge Commercial Energy Model; and Brookhaven Buildings Energy Conservation Optimization Model (BECOM).

  1. Impact assessment of coastal hazards due to future changes of tropical cyclones in the North Pacific Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuhito Mori

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones generate severe hazards in the middle latitudes. A brief review and applications of dynamical and statistical downscaling of tropical cyclone (TC are described targeting extreme storm surge and storm wave hazard assessment. First, a review of the current understanding of the changes in the characteristics of TCs in the past and in the future is shown. Then, a review and ongoing research about impact assessment of tropical cyclones both dynamical downscaling and statistical model are described for Typhoon Vera in 1959 and Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Finally, several examples of impact assessment of storm surge and extreme wave changes are presented. Changes in both TC intensity and track are linked to future changes in extreme storm surge and wave climate in middle latitude.

  2. Assessing the metrics of climate change. Current methods and future possibilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuglestveit, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje K.; Godal, Odd; Sausen, Robert; Shine, Keith P.; Skodvin, Tora

    2001-07-01

    With the principle of comprehensiveness embedded in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Art. 3), a multi-gas abatement strategy with emphasis also on non-CO2 greenhouse gases as targets for reduction and control measures has been adopted in the international climate regime. In the Kyoto Protocol, the comprehensive approach is made operative as the aggregate anthropogenic carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of six specified greenhouse gases or groups of gases (Art. 3). With this operationalisation, the emissions of a set of greenhouse gases with very different atmospheric lifetimes and radiative properties are transformed into one common unit - CO2 equivalents. This transformation is based on the Global Warming Potential (GWP) index, which in turn is based on the concept of radiative forcing. The GWP metric and its application in policy making has been debated, and several other alternative concepts have been suggested. In this paper, we review existing and alternative metrics of climate change, with particular emphasis on radiative forcing and GWPs, in terms of their scientific performance. This assessment focuses on questions such as the climate impact (end point) against which gases are weighted; the extent to which and how temporality is included, both with regard to emission control and with regard to climate impact; how cost issues are dealt with; and the sensitivity of the metrics to various assumptions. It is concluded that the radiative forcing concept is a robust and useful metric of the potential climatic impact of various agents and that there are prospects for improvement by weighing different forcings according to their effectiveness. We also find that although the GWP concept is associated with serious shortcomings, it retains advantages over any of the proposed alternatives in terms of political feasibility. Alternative metrics, however, make a significant contribution to addressing important issues, and this contribution should be taken

  3. Future Flows Hydrology: an ensemble of daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels for use for climate change impact assessment across Great Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Prudhomme

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The dataset Future Flows Hydrology was developed as part of the project "Future Flows and Groundwater Levels" to provide a consistent set of transient daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels projections across England, Wales and Scotland to enable the investigation of the role of climate variability on river flow and groundwater levels nationally and how this may change in the future.

    Future Flows Hydrology is derived from Future Flows Climate, a national ensemble projection derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications. Three hydrological models and one groundwater level model were used to derive Future Flows Hydrology, with 30 river sites simulated by two hydrological models to enable assessment of hydrological modelling uncertainty in studying the impact of climate change on the hydrology.

    Future Flows Hydrology contains an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1951 to December 2098, each associated with a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3 and a single hydrological model. Daily river flows are provided for 281 river catchments and monthly groundwater levels at 24 boreholes as .csv files containing all 11 ensemble members. When separate simulations are done with two hydrological models, two separate .csv files are provided.

    Because of potential biases in the climate-hydrology modelling chain, catchment fact sheets are associated with each ensemble. These contain information on the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling when driven using observed climate and Future Flows Climate for a period representative of the reference time slice 1961–1990 as described by key hydrological statistics. Graphs of projected changes for selected hydrological indicators are also provided for

  4. Future Flows Hydrology: an ensemble of daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels for use for climate change impact assessment across Great Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Prudhomme

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The dataset Future Flows Hydrology was developed as part of the project "Future Flows and Groundwater Levels'' to provide a consistent set of transient daily river flow and monthly groundwater level projections across England, Wales and Scotland to enable the investigation of the role of climate variability on river flow and groundwater levels nationally and how this may change in the future. Future Flows Hydrology is derived from Future Flows Climate, a national ensemble projection derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications. Three hydrological models and one groundwater level model were used to derive Future Flows Hydrology, with 30 river sites simulated by two hydrological models to enable assessment of hydrological modelling uncertainty in studying the impact of climate change on the hydrology. Future Flows Hydrology contains an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1951 to December 2098, each associated with a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3 and a single hydrological model. Daily river flows are provided for 281 river catchments and monthly groundwater levels at 24 boreholes as .csv files containing all 11 ensemble members. When separate simulations are done with two hydrological models, two separate .csv files are provided. Because of potential biases in the climate–hydrology modelling chain, catchment fact sheets are associated with each ensemble. These contain information on the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling when driven using observed climate and Future Flows Climate for a period representative of the reference time slice 1961–1990 as described by key hydrological statistics. Graphs of projected changes for selected hydrological indicators are also provided for the 2050s time slice

  5. 78 FR 49287 - Environmental Assessment for Potential Lease Issuance and Marine Hydrokinetic Technology Testing...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-13

    ... well as identification of important environmental issues associated with data collection and technology... Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Environmental Assessment for Potential Lease Issuance and Marine Hydrokinetic Technology Testing Offshore Florida AGENCY: Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM),...

  6. The soil management assessment framework: A potential soil health assessment tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Soil Management Assessment Framework (SMAF) was developed in the 1990s utilizing Systems Engineering and Ecology experiences with scoring functions to normalize disparate soil physical, chemical, and biological indicator data representing critical properties and processes associated with soil qu...

  7. Assessing the future change of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration over Florida using ranked CMIP5 model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, S.; Chang, S. J.; Graham, W. D.

    2014-12-01

    The ultimate goal of this study is to assess future water vulnerability over Florida, based on the change in precipitation and evapotranspiration estimated using the most advanced Global Climate Model (GCM) ensemble. We evaluated the skills of CMIP5 (Climate Model Inter-comparison project, phase 5) climate models in reproducing retrospective climatology over the state of Florida for the key climate variables important from the hydrological and agricultural perspectives (i.e., precipitation (Precp), maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin), and wind speed (Ws)). The biases of raw CMIP5 were estimated using two different grid-based observational datasets as references. Based on the accuracy of various predictors such as mean climatology, temporal variability, extreme frequency, etc., the GCMs were ranked for each of the different reference datasets, climate variables, and predictors. The variation of the ranks was examined and rank-based GCM weights were assigned. The weights were then used to develop future ensembles (for 4 different RCP gas-emission scenarios) for the annual cycle of monthly mean and variance of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration (ETo). Finally the differences between the retrospective and future ensembles were investigated to assess future climate change impacts on water vulnerability using simple indices (e.g., ETo/Precp., drought index, and Standardized Precp. index). The uncertainties of the assessment were quantified by the spread range of ensembles and a reliability factor for the GCMs estimated using a measure of model biases and convergence criterion.

  8. Assessment of nervous-muscular system’s potentials of cyclic kinds of sports sportsmen

    OpenAIRE

    Skladanivska I.V.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: to work out and substantiate methodic of assessment of nervous-muscular system’s potentials of elite sportsmen, representatives of cyclic kinds of sports. Material: in the research sportsmen of cyclic kinds of sports (n = 28) participated. Testing was conducted with the help of ergometer of bicycle type. Results: we present methodic of assessment of nervous-muscular system’s potentials of elite sportsmen with the help of surface electromyography. It was found that sportsmen with high...

  9. Zingiber officinale (Ginger: A Future Outlook on Its Potential in Prevention and Treatment of Diabetes and Prediabetic States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Basil D. Roufogalis

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Diabetes is reaching pandemic levels in both developing and developed countries and requires safe, affordable, and effective therapies. This report summarises work in our laboratory on the effects of Zingiber officinale (ginger and its components in diabetes models and provides a future outlook on the potential for their use in type 2 diabetes. A high fat diet rat model showed modulation of body weight gain and normalisation of glucose and lipid metabolic disturbances, with reduction of insulin resistance in a high fat-high carbohydrate diet model. Ginger extract inhibits enhanced NF-κB in liver of high fat-fed rats through inhibition of the IKK/IκBα/NF-κB classical pathway. The major active component (S-[6]-gingerol inhibited elevated cytokines in inflamed HuH7 cells through suppression of COX2 expression and protection against the ROS pathway. Ginger extract and gingerols enhanced glucose uptake in L6 myotubes, by enhancing translocation of GLUT4 to the surface membrane and activation of AMPKα1 through a Ca2+/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase kinase pathway. (S-[6]-Gingerol also enhanced energy metabolism through marked increment of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-γ coactivator-1α (PGC-1α gene expression and mitochondrial content in L6 skeletal muscle cells. Future studies will require well designed clinical trials on ginger preparations of defined chemical composition.

  10. Potential near-future carbon uptake overcomes losses from a large insect outbreak in British Columbia, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, Vivek K.; Peng, Yiran; Kurz, Werner A.; Fyfe, John C.; Hawkins, Barbara; Werner, Arelia T.

    2016-03-01

    The current capacity of northern high-latitude forests to sequester carbon has been suggested to be undermined by the potential increase in fire and insect outbreaks. Here we investigate the response of the terrestrial ecosystems in the province of British Columbia (BC), Canada, to the recent large mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak that started in 1999 as well as changing climate and continually increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration up to 2050, in a combined framework, using a process-based model. Model simulations suggest that the recent MPB outbreak results in BC's forests accumulating 328 Tg less carbon over the 1999-2020 period. Over this same period changing climate and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, however, yield enhanced carbon uptake equal to a cumulative sink of around 900-1060 Tg C, depending on the future climate change scenario, indicating that the reduced carbon uptake by land due to the MPB disturbance may already be surpassed by 2020.

  11. Fuel Savings Potential from Future In-motion Wireless Power Transfer (WPT); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burton, E.; Wang, L.; Gonder, J.; Brooker, A.; Konan, A.

    2015-02-10

    This presentation discusses the fuel savings potential from future in-motion wireless power transfer. There is an extensive overlap in road usage apparent across regional vehicle population, which occurs primarily on high-capacity roads--1% of roads are used for 25% of the vehicle miles traveled. Interstates and highways make up between 2.5% and 4% of the total roads within the Consolidated Statistical Areas (CSAs), which represent groupings of metropolitan and/or micropolitan statistical areas. Mileage traveled on the interstates and highways ranges from 54% in California to 24% in Chicago. Road electrification could remove range restrictions of electric vehicles and increase the fuel savings of PHEVs or HEVs if implemented on a large scale. If 1% of the road miles within a geographic area are electrified, 25% of the fuel used by a 'fleet' of vehicles enabled with the technology could be displaced.

  12. Potential impacts of a future Grand Solar Minimum on decadal regional climate change and interannual hemispherical climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiegl, Tobias; Langematz, Ulrike

    2016-04-01

    The political, technical and socio-economic developments of the next decades will determine the magnitude of 21st century climate change, since they are inextricably linked to future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. To assess the range of uncertainty that is related to these developments, it is common to assume different emission scenarios for 21st climate projections. While the uncertainties associated with the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing have been studied intensely, the contribution of natural climate drivers (particularly solar variability) to recent and future climate change are subject of intense debate. The past 1,000 years featured at least 5 excursions (lasting 60-100 years) of exceptionally low solar activity, induced by a weak magnetic field of the Sun, so called Grand Solar Minima. While the global temperature response to such a decrease in solar activity is assumed to be rather small, nonlinear mechanisms in the climate system might amplify the regional temperature signal. This hypothesis is supported by the last Grand Solar Minimum (the Maunder Minimum, 1645-1715) which coincides with the Little Ice Age, an epoch which is characterized by severe cold and hardship over Europe, North America and Asia. The long-lasting minimum of Solar Cycle 23 as well as the overall weak maximum of Cycle 24 reveal the possibility for a return to Grand Solar Minimum conditions within the next decades. The quantification of the implications of such a projected decrease in solar forcing is of ultimate importance, given the on-going public discussion of the role of carbon dioxide emissions for global warming, and the possible role a cooling due to decreasing solar activity could be ascrib