Potential future impacts of climatic change on the Great Plains

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smit, B.

1991-01-01

A synopsis is provided of approaches to impact studies in the Great Plains, findings from studies of future impacts are summarized, and opportunities for enhancing understanding of future impacts are discussed. Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources, forestry, recreation/tourism, and energy are summarized. Impact analyses need to look more rigorously at variability in climate, the probabilities of various climatic conditions, and the sensitivity of social and economic activities to climatic variability. Most economic impact studies have assumed no adaptive behavior on the part of economic decision makers. Credible impact assessments require an improved understanding of the sensitivity and adaptability of sectors to climatic conditions, particularly variability. The energy sector in the Great Plains region is likely to be more sensitive to political developments in the Middle East than to climatic variability and change. Speculation and analysis of climate impacts have focused on supply conditions and demands, yet the sector is more keenly sensitive to policy implications of climatic change, such as the potential for fossil fuel taxes or other legislative or pricing constraints. 28 refs

Assessing Future Ecosystem Services: a Case Study of the Northern Highlands Lake District, Wisconsin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Garry D. Peterson

2003-12-01

Full Text Available The Northern Highlands Lake District of Wisconsin is in transition from a sparsely settled region to a more densely populated one. Expected changes offer benefits to northern Wisconsin residents but also threaten to degrade the ecological services they rely on. Because the future of this region is uncertain, it is difficult to make decisions that will avoid potential risks and take advantage of potential opportunities. We adopt a scenario planning approach to cope with this problem of prediction. We use an ecological assessment framework developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment to determine key social and ecological driving forces in the Northern Highlands Lake District. From these, we describe three alternative scenarios to the year 2025 in which the projected use of ecological services is substantially different. The work reported in this paper demonstrates how scenarios can be developed for a region and provides a starting point for a participatory discussion of alternative futures for northern Wisconsin. Although the future is unknowable, we hope that the assessment process begun in this paper will help the people of the Northern Highlands Lake District choose the future path of their region.

Assessment of the present and future offshore wind power potential: a case study in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast.

Science.gov (United States)

Lizuma, Lita; Avotniece, Zanita; Rupainis, Sergejs; Teilans, Artis

2013-01-01

Offshore wind energy development promises to be a significant domestic renewable energy source in Latvia. The reliable prediction of present and future wind resources at offshore sites is crucial for planning and selecting the location for wind farms. The overall goal of this paper is the assessment of offshore wind power potential in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast as well as the identification of a trend in the future wind energy potential for the study territory. The regional climate model CLM and High Resolution Limited Area Model (Hirlam) simulations were used to obtain the wind climatology data for the study area. The results indicated that offshore wind energy is promising for expanding the national electricity generation and will continue to be a stable resource for electricity generation in the region over the 21st century.

Elements of a regulatory strategy for the consideration of future human actions in safety assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.D.; Wickham, S.M.; Galson, D.A.

1999-09-01

The objective of this report is to discuss issues that should be considered in the development of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in any forthcoming license application for a deep repository for spent fuel in Sweden and for sites of other repositories. The report comprises an outline of key issues concerning the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, reviews of regulatory developments, recent safety assessments and supporting studies, and international initiatives on the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, and the principal elements of a regulatory strategy. Performance assessments (PAs) are generally accepted as providing illustrations of system performance under given sets of assumptions. The results of PAs are clearer and easier to understand if certain large uncertainties are accounted for by determining performance under several different sets of assumptions or scenarios, each of which defines a possible evolution of the disposal system. A number of assumptions can be made that would restrict the scope of an assessment without reducing the credibility of the corresponding safety case. Reducing speculation about technological development, by assuming that the techniques used in future human activities are similar to those currently in use in the region or at similar sites, will simplify the assessment. A distinction is generally made between inadvertent and intentional intrusion, with intentional activities excluded because society cannot protect future populations from their own actions if they understand the potential consequences. A division of human activities into 'recent and ongoing' and 'future' activities considers not only the timing of the activities but also the degree of control or influence that can be imposed on them. Recent and ongoing human activities are those that affect an area beyond the immediate vicinity of the disposal facility and which neither the proponent nor the regulator

An assessment of wind energy potential in Iberia under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Santos, João A.; Rochinha, Carlos; Reyers, Mark; Pinto, Joaquim G.

2015-04-01

Wind energy potential in Iberia is assessed for recent-past (1961-2000) and future (2041-2070) climates. For recent-past, a COSMO-CLM simulation driven by ERA-40 is used. COSMO-CLM simulations driven by ECHAM5 following the A1B scenario are used for future projections. A 2 MW rated power wind turbine is selected. Mean potentials, inter-annual variability and irregularity are discussed on annual/seasonal scales and on a grid resolution of 20 km. For detailed regional assessments eight target sites are considered. For recent-past conditions, the highest daily mean potentials are found in winter over northern and eastern Iberia, particularly on high-elevation or coastal regions. In northwestern Iberia, daily potentials frequently reach maximum wind energy output (50 MWh day-1), particularly in winter. Southern Andalucía reveals high potentials throughout the year, whereas the Ebro valley and central-western coast show high potentials in summer. The irregularity in annual potentials is moderate (2 MWh day-1). The northward displacement of North Atlantic westerly winds (autumn-spring) and the strengthening of easterly flows (summer) are key drivers of future projections. Santos, J.A.; Rochinha, C.; Liberato, M.L.R.; Reyers, M.; Pinto, J.G. (2015) Projected changes in wind energy potentials over Iberia. Renewable Energy, 75, 1: 68-80. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2014.09.026 Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

Assessments of Future Maize Yield Potential Changes in the Korean Peninsula Using Multiple Crop Models

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, S. H.; Lim, C. H.; Kim, J.; Lee, W. K.; Kafatos, M.

2016-12-01

The Korean Peninsula has unique agricultural environment due to the differences of political and socio-economical system between Republic of Korea (SK, hereafter) and Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea (NK, hereafter). NK has been suffering lack of food supplies caused by natural disasters, land degradation and political failure. The neighboring developed country SK has better agricultural system but very low food self-sufficiency rate. Maize is an important crop in both countries since it is staple food for NK and SK is No. 2 maize importing country in the world after Japan. Therefore, evaluating maize yield potential (Yp) in the two distinct regions is essential to assess food security under climate change and variability. In this study, we utilized multiple process-based crop models, having ability of regional scale assessment, to evaluate maize Yp and assess the model uncertainties -EPIC, GEPIC, DSSAT, and APSIM model that has capability of regional scale expansion (apsimRegions). First we evaluated each crop model for 3 years from 2012 to 2014 using reanalysis data (RDAPS; Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System produced by Korea Meteorological Agency) and observed yield data. Each model performances were compared over the different regions in the Korean Peninsula having different local climate characteristics. To quantify of the major influence of at each climate variables, we also conducted sensitivity test using 20 years of climatology in historical period from 1981 to 2000. Lastly, the multi-crop model ensemble analysis was performed for future period from 2031 to 2050. The required weather variables projected for mid-century were employed from COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) East Asia. The high-resolution climate data were obtained from multiple regional climate models (RCM) driven by multiple climate scenarios projected from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in conjunction with multiple greenhouse gas

Elements of a regulatory strategy for the consideration of future human actions in safety assessments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilmot, R.D.; Wickham, S.M.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

1999-09-01

The objective of this report is to discuss issues that should be considered in the development of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in any forthcoming license application for a deep repository for spent fuel in Sweden and for sites of other repositories. The report comprises an outline of key issues concerning the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, reviews of regulatory developments, recent safety assessments and supporting studies, and international initiatives on the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, and the principal elements of a regulatory strategy. Performance assessments (PAs) are generally accepted as providing illustrations of system performance under given sets of assumptions. The results of PAs are clearer and easier tounderstand if certain large uncertainties are accounted for by determining performance under several different sets of assumptions or scenarios, each of which defines a possible evolution of the disposal system. A number of assumptions can be made that would restrict the scope of an assessment without reducing the credibility of the corresponding safety case. Reducing speculation about technological development, by assuming that the techniques used in future human activities are similar to those currently in use in the region or at similar sites, will simplify the assessment. A distinction is generally made between inadvertent and intentional intrusion, with intentional activities excluded because society cannot protect future populations from their own actions if they understand the potential consequences. A division of human activities into 'recent and ongoing' and 'future' activities considers not only the timing of the activities but also the degree of control or influence that can be imposed on them. Recent and ongoing human activities are those that affect an area beyond the immediate vicinity of the disposal facility and which neither the proponent

Assessment of wind energy potential in China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Zhu Rong; Zhang De; Wang Yuedong; Xing Xuhuang; Li Zechun

2009-01-01

China wind atlas was made by numerical simulation and the wind energy potential in China was calculated. The model system for wind energy resource assessment was set up based on Canadian Wind Energy Simulating Toolkit (WEST) and the simulating method was as follows. First, the weather classes were obtained depend on meteorological data of 30 years. Then, driven by the initial meteorological field produced by each weather class, the meso-scale model ran for the distribution of wind energy resources according each weather class condition one by one. Finally, averaging all the modeling output weighted by the occurrence frequency of each weather class, the annual mean distribution of wind energy resources was worked out. Compared the simulated wind energy potential with other results from several ac-tivities and studies for wind energy resource assessment, it is found that the simulated wind energy potential in mainland of China is 3 times that from the second and the third investigations for wind energy resources by CMA, and is similar to the wind energy potential obtained by NREL in Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment (SWERA) project. The simulated offshore wind energy potential of China seems smaller than the true value. According to the simulated results of CMA and considering lots of limited factors to wind energy development, the final conclusion can be obtained that the wind energy availability in China is 700～1 200 GW, in which 600～1 000 GW is in mainland and 100～200 GW is on offshore, and wind power will become the important part of energy composition in future.

Assessing current and future techno-economic potential of concentrated solar power and photovoltaic electricity generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Köberle, Alexandre C.; Gernaat, David E.H.J.; Vuuren, Detlef P. van

2015-01-01

CSP and PV technologies represent energy sources with large potentials. We present cost-supply curves for both technologies using a consistent methodology for 26 regions, based on geoexplicit information on solar radiation, land cover type and slope, exploring individual potential and interdependencies. For present day, both CSP and PV supply curves start at $0.18/kWh, in North Africa, South America, and Australia. Applying accepted learning rates to official capacity targets, we project prices to drop to $0.11/kWh for both technologies by 2050. In an alternative “fast-learning” scenario, generation costs drop to $0.06–0.07/kWh for CSP, and $0.09/kWh for PV. Competition between them for best areas is explored along with sensitivities of their techno-economic potentials to land use restrictions and land cover type. CSP was found to be more competitive in desert sites with highest direct solar radiation. PV was a clear winner in humid tropical regions, and temperate northern hemisphere. Elsewhere, no clear winner emerged, highlighting the importance of competition in assessments of potentials. Our results show there is ample potential globally for both technologies even accounting for land use restrictions, but stronger support for RD&D and higher investments are needed to make CSP and PV cost-competitive with established power technologies by 2050. - Highlights: • A consistent assessment of global potential for CSP and PV, with cost-supply curves for 26 regions. • Combined global CSP and PV potential below US$0.35/kWh estimated at 135,128 TWh per year. • Competition for same land-based solar resource implies that potentials cannot be added. • Attractive areas are MENA, Northern Chile, Australia, China and Southwestern USA. • Costs are projected to go down over time, reaching US$0.06–0.11/KWh for attractive sites in 2050

Risk assessment future cash flows

OpenAIRE

Chachina H. G.

2012-01-01

This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

The Future Potential of Waver Power in the United States

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mirko Previsic; Jeff Epler; Maureen Hand; Donna Heimiller; Walter Short; Kelly Eurek

2012-09-20

The theoretical ocean wave energy resource potential exceeds 50% of the annual domestic energy demand of the United States, is located close to coastal population centers, and, although variable in nature, may be more consistent and predictable than some other renewable generation technologies. As a renewable electricity generation technology, ocean wave energy offers a low air pollutant option for diversifying the U.S. electricity generation portfolio. Furthermore, the output characteristics of these technologies may complement other renewable technologies. This study addresses the following: (1) The theoretical, technical and practical potential for electricity generation from wave energy (2) The present lifecycle cost profile (Capex, Opex, and Cost of Electricity) of wave energy conversion technology at a reference site in Northern California at different plant scales (3) Cost of electricity variations as a function of deployment site, considering technical, geo-spatial and and electric grid constraints (4) Technology cost reduction pathways (5) Cost reduction targets at which the technology will see significant deployment within US markets, explored through a series of deployment scenarios RE Vision Consulting, LLC (RE Vision), engaged in various analyses to establish current and future cost profiles for marine hydrokinetic (MHK) technologies, quantified the theoretical, technical and practical resource potential, performed electricity market assessments and developed deployment scenarios. RE Vision was supported in this effort by NREL analysts, who compiled resource information, performed analysis using the ReEDSa model to develop deployment scenarios, and developed a simplified assessment of the Alaska and Hawaii electricity markets.

Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

D. Levitt

2004-11-09

The purpose of this model report is to document the infiltration model used to estimate upper-bound, mean, and lower-bound spatially-distributed average annual net infiltration rates for present-day and potential future climates at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Net infiltration is the component of infiltrated precipitation, snowmelt, or surface water run-on that has percolated below the zone of evapotranspiration as defined by the depth of the effective root zone. The estimates of net infiltration are primarily used for defining the upper boundary condition for the site-scale three-dimensional unsaturated zone (UZ) model. The UZ flow model is one of several process models abstracted by the total system performance assessment (TSPA) model used to evaluate performance of the repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The net-infiltration model is important for assessing repository-system performance because output from this model provides the upper boundary condition for the UZ flow model used to generate flow fields; water percolating downward from the UZ will be the principal means by which radionuclides are potentially released to the saturated zone (SZ). The SZ is the principal pathway to the biosphere where the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) is exposed to radionuclides.

Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levitt, D.

2004-01-01

The purpose of this model report is to document the infiltration model used to estimate upper-bound, mean, and lower-bound spatially-distributed average annual net infiltration rates for present-day and potential future climates at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Net infiltration is the component of infiltrated precipitation, snowmelt, or surface water run-on that has percolated below the zone of evapotranspiration as defined by the depth of the effective root zone. The estimates of net infiltration are primarily used for defining the upper boundary condition for the site-scale three-dimensional unsaturated zone (UZ) model. The UZ flow model is one of several process models abstracted by the total system performance assessment (TSPA) model used to evaluate performance of the repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The net-infiltration model is important for assessing repository-system performance because output from this model provides the upper boundary condition for the UZ flow model used to generate flow fields; water percolating downward from the UZ will be the principal means by which radionuclides are potentially released to the saturated zone (SZ). The SZ is the principal pathway to the biosphere where the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) is exposed to radionuclides

Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: Comparative aspects and future perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dorne, J.L.C.M.; Fink-Gremmels, J.

2013-01-01

Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. - Highlights: ► Principles of human and animal health risk assessment. ► Data gaps for each step of animal health risk assessment. ► Implications of animal risk assessment on human risk assessment. ► Future perspectives on chemical risk assessment

Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: Comparative aspects and future perspectives

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dorne, J.L.C.M., E-mail: jean-lou.dorne@efsa.europa.eu [Emerging Risk Unit, Via Carlo Magno 1A, 43126 Parma (Italy); Fink-Gremmels, J. [Utrecht University, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Yalelaan 104, 3584 CM Utrecht (Netherlands)

2013-08-01

Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. - Highlights: ► Principles of human and animal health risk assessment. ► Data gaps for each step of animal health risk assessment. ► Implications of animal risk assessment on human risk assessment. ► Future perspectives on chemical risk assessment.

Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations

OpenAIRE

Gagnin, Cristiano; Havas, Attila; Saritas, Ozcan

2011-01-01

This paper reflects on the potential of future-oriented analysis (FTA) to address major change and to support decision-makers and other stakeholders in anticipating and dealing with transformations. It does so by critically reflecting on the selected papers for this special issue as well as on the discussions that took place at the fourth Seville International Conference on Future-oriented Technology Analysis. Considering the potential roles of FTA in enabling a better understanding of co...

Criteria for the assessment of reactor potential

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carruthers, R.

1982-01-01

This article outlines some of the more general criteria to be used in assessing reactor potential. The interdependence of plasma and engineering parameters is considered. This demonstrated how it is the first wall power loading which is the critical parameter in assessing economic prospects. Taking some of the current conceptual designs of fusion reactors and raising the wall loading to the value needed to approach a competitive cost leads to a very challenging set of parameters. Although developed in terms of a tokamak they are figures which are applicable more generally to fusion reactors which are toroidal in form. It is not at all obvious that the tokamak could ever satisfy this criterion of economic viability, so we should not be using the parameters of existing tokamak reactor designs as the basis for assessing alternative approaches. We need to see whether there is an alternative sufficiently different as to offer a better chance of reaching these more onerous parameters. Unfortunately, so many of the alternatives differ only in magnetic geometry and their physical geometry leads to the same problems as faced by the tokamak. The traditional approach -- devising intriguing ''boxes'' for studying the confinement of plasma and then speculating on their reactor potential -- should give way to new initiatives. What we need in the fusion program is more ''reactor relevance pull'' and less ''plasma physics push'' when planning future activities

Integrated assessment of future potential global change scenarios and their hydrological impacts in coastal aquifers – a new tool to analyse management alternatives in the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Pulido-Velazquez

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Any change in the components of the water balance in a coastal aquifer, whether natural or anthropogenic, can alter the freshwater–salt water equilibrium. In this sense climate change (CC and land use and land cover (LULC change might significantly influence the availability of groundwater resources in the future. These coastal systems demand an integrated analysis of quantity and quality issues to obtain an appropriate assessment of hydrological impacts using density-dependent flow solutions. The aim of this work is to perform an integrated analysis of future potential global change (GC scenarios and their hydrological impacts in a coastal aquifer, the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer. It is a Mediterranean aquifer that extends over 75 km2 in which important historical LULC changes have been produced and are planned for the future. Future CC scenarios will be defined by using an equi-feasible and non-feasible ensemble of projections based on the results of a multi-criteria analysis of the series generated from several regional climatic models with different downscaling approaches. The hydrological impacts of these CC scenarios combined with future LULC scenarios will be assessed with a chain of models defined by a sequential coupling of rainfall-recharge models, crop irrigation requirements and irrigation return models (for the aquifer and its neighbours that feed it, and a density-dependent aquifer approach. This chain of models, calibrated using the available historical data, allow testing of the conceptual approximation of the aquifer behaviour. They are also fed with series representatives of potential global change scenarios in order to perform a sensitivity analysis regarding future scenarios of rainfall recharge, lateral flows coming from the hydraulically connected neighbouring aquifer, agricultural recharge (taking into account expected future LULC changes and sea level rise (SLR. The proposed analysis is valuable for

Potential future waste-to-energy systems

OpenAIRE

Thorin, Eva; Guziana, Bozena; Song, Han; Jääskeläinen, Ari; Szpadt, Ryszard; Vasilic, Dejan; Ahrens, Thorsten; Anne, Olga; Lõõnik, Jaan

2012-01-01

This report discusses potential future systems for waste-to-energy production in the Baltic Sea Region, and especially for the project REMOWE partner regions, the County of Västmanland in Sweden, Northern Savo in Finland, Lower Silesia in Poland, western part of Lithuania and Estonia. The waste-to-energy systems planned for in the partner regions are combustion of municipal solid waste (MSW) and solid recovered fuels from household and industry as well as anaerobic digestion of sewage sludge ...

A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple.

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

2017-05-01

Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

2017-05-01

Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

Current assessment and future potential of the international nuclear market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cassidy, P.R.

1983-01-01

This is a study of the current and future situation of the international nuclear market. This paper highlights the projections as seen not only by Bechtel Power Corporation, but also by the international nuclear community. It covers in particular the electric power growth projection; the percentage of probable nuclear power generation; operating services for existing nuclear power plants; and the nuclear fuel cycle. (NEA) [fr

Comparing Existing Pipeline Networks with the Potential Scale of Future U.S. CO2 Pipeline Networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dooley, James J.; Dahowski, Robert T.; Davidson, Casie L.

2008-02-29

There is growing interest regarding the potential size of a future U.S. dedicated CO2 pipeline infrastructure if carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies are commercially deployed on a large scale. In trying to understand the potential scale of a future national CO2 pipeline network, comparisons are often made to the existing pipeline networks used to deliver natural gas and liquid hydrocarbons to markets within the U.S. This paper assesses the potential scale of the CO2 pipeline system needed under two hypothetical climate policies and compares this to the extant U.S. pipeline infrastructures used to deliver CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and to move natural gas and liquid hydrocarbons from areas of production and importation to markets. The data presented here suggest that the need to increase the size of the existing dedicated CO2 pipeline system should not be seen as a significant obstacle for the commercial deployment of CCS technologies.

Wind diesel systems - design assessment and future potential

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Infield, D.G.; Scotney, A.; Lundsager, P.

1992-01-01

Diesels are the obvious form. of back-up electricity generation in small to medium sized wind systems. High wind penetrations pose significant technical problems for the system designer, ranging from component sizing to control specification and dynamic stability. A key role is seen for proven...... system models for assessing both dynamic characteristics and overall performance and economics. An introduction is provided to the Wind Diesel Engineering Design Toolkit currently under development (for implementation on PC) by a consortium of leading wind diesel experts, representing six European...

Future research needs associated with the assessment of potential human health risks from exposure to toxic ambient air pollutants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Möller, Lennart; Schuetzle, Dennis; Autrup, Herman

1994-01-01

of identification and quantification of toxics in source emissions and ambient air, atmospheric transport and chemistry, exposure level assessment, the development of improved in vitro bioassays, biomarker development, the development of more accurate epidemiological methodologies, and risk quantification......This paper presents key conclusions and future research needs from a Workshop on the Risk Assessment of Urban Air, Emissions, Exposure, Risk Identification, and Quantification, which was held in Stockholm during June 1992 by 41 participants from 13 countries. Research is recommended in the areas...... techniques. Studies are described that will be necessary to assess and reduce the level of uncertainties associated with each step of the risk assessment process. International collaborative research efforts between industry and government organizations are recommended as the most effective way to carry out...

US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John; Jacobs, Kathy; Lempert, Rob; Mearns, L. O.; Melillo, Jerry; Mote, Phil; O' Brien, Sheila; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, Alex; Sheppard, Stephen; Vallario, Robert W.; Wiek, Arnim; Wilbanks, Thomas

2011-10-01

This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for release in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes

Contents of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in the safety evaluation of a repository for spent fuels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.D.; Wickham, S.M.; Galson, D.A.

2001-08-01

The objective of this report is to discuss issues that should be considered in the development of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in any forthcoming license application for a deep repository for spent fuel in Sweden and for sites of other repositories. The report comprises an outline of key issues concerning the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, reviews of regulatory developments, recent safety assessments and supporting studies, and international initiatives on the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, and the principal elements of a regulatory strategy. Performance assessments (PAs) are generally accepted as providing illustrations of system performance under given sets of assumptions. The results of PAs are clearer and easier to understand if certain large uncertainties are accounted for by determining performance under several different sets of assumptions or scenarios, each of which defines a possible evolution of the disposal system. A number of assumptions can be made that would restrict the scope of an assessment without reducing the credibility of the corresponding safety case. Reducing speculation about technological development, by assuming that the techniques used in future human activities are similar to those currently in use in the region or at similar sites, will simplify the assessment. A distinction is generally made between inadvertent and intentional intrusion, with intentional activities excluded because society cannot protect future populations from their own actions if they understand the potential consequences. A division of human activities into 'recent and ongoing' and 'future' activities considers not only the timing of the activities but also the degree of control or influence that can be imposed on them. Recent and ongoing human activities are those that affect an area beyond the immediate vicinity of the disposal facility and which neither the proponent nor the regulator

Modelling cereal crops to assess future climate risk for family food self-sufficiency in southern Mali

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Traore, Bouba; Descheemaeker, Katrien; Wijk, van Mark T.; Corbeels, Marc; Supit, Iwan; Giller, Ken E.

2017-01-01

Future climate change will have far reaching consequences for smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa, the majority of whom depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. Here we assessed the farm-level impact of climate change on family food self-sufficiency and evaluated potential adaptation

The perceptions of creativity and creative potentials of future kindergarten and class teachers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Milovanović Radmila

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Research studies on teaching practice have shown that not enough attention is paid to the problem of children’s creativity development in our schools in spite of the fact that the development of creative potentials in preschool institutions and school figures as one of the priority educational tasks. The perceptions of creativity and creative potentials of future kindergarten and class teachers can serve as an important basis for encouraging the development of their professional competences. This research was aimed at examining students’ knowledge and beliefs on creativity, obtaining self-assessment of their own creative potentials and determining the level of expression of students’ creativity based on their abilities of creative problem-solving. The sample included the students of the Faculty of Pedagogical Sciences in Jagodina and Teacher Training College in Vranje (N=300. For examining students’ creative potentials we used the Epstein Creativity Competences Inventory and a version of the Saugstad & Rahaim Problem Solving Tests. Research results have confirmed that students possess the knowledge and the beliefs compatible with the modern scientific beliefs on creativity. They assess their own creative potentials as very high and they do possess them. The obtained results can serve as a better foundation for working with students towards fostering the development of their creative potentials and professional competences. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 179034: Od podsticanja inicijative, saradnje, stvaralaštva u obrazovanju do novih uloga i identiteta u društvu i br. 47008: Unapređivanje kvaliteta i dostupnosti obrazovanja u procesima modernizacije Srbije

Development of an Improved Methodology to Assess Potential Unconventional Gas Resources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salazar, Jesus; McVay, Duane A.; Lee, W. John

2010-01-01

Considering the important role played today by unconventional gas resources in North America and their enormous potential for the future around the world, it is vital to both policy makers and industry that the volumes of these resources and the impact of technology on these resources be assessed. To provide for optimal decision making regarding energy policy, research funding, and resource development, it is necessary to reliably quantify the uncertainty in these resource assessments. Since the 1970s, studies to assess potential unconventional gas resources have been conducted by various private and governmental agencies, the most rigorous of which was by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The USGS employed a cell-based, probabilistic methodology which used analytical equations to calculate distributions of the resources assessed. USGS assessments have generally produced distributions for potential unconventional gas resources that, in our judgment, are unrealistically narrow for what are essentially undiscovered, untested resources. In this article, we present an improved methodology to assess potential unconventional gas resources. Our methodology is a stochastic approach that includes Monte Carlo simulation and correlation between input variables. Application of the improved methodology to the Uinta-Piceance province of Utah and Colorado with USGS data validates the means and standard deviations of resource distributions produced by the USGS methodology, but reveals that these distributions are not right skewed, as expected for a natural resource. Our investigation indicates that the unrealistic shape and width of the gas resource distributions are caused by the use of narrow triangular input parameter distributions. The stochastic methodology proposed here is more versatile and robust than the USGS analytic methodology. Adoption of the methodology, along with a careful examination and revision of input distributions, should allow a more realistic

USGCRP's Sustained Assessment Process: Progress to date and future plans

Science.gov (United States)

DeAngelo, B. J.; Reidmiller, D.; Lipschultz, F.; Cloyd, E. T.

2016-12-01

One of the four main objectives of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP's) Strategic Plan is to "Conduct Sustained Assessments", which seeks to build a process that synthesizes and advances the state of scientific knowledge on global change, develops future scenarios and potential impacts, and evaluates how effectively science is being and can be used to inform and support the Nation's response to climate change. To do so, USGCRP strives to establish a standing capacity to conduct national climate assessments with sectoral and regional information to evaluate climate risks and opportunities, and to inform decision-making, especially with regard to resiliency planning and adaptation measures. Building on the success of the 3rd National Climate Assessment (NCA) (2014), we discuss the range of USGCRP activities that embody the sustained assessment concept. Special reports, such as the recent Climate and Human Health Assessment and upcoming Climate Science Special Report, fill gaps in our understanding and provide crucial building blocks for next NCA report (NCA4). To facilitate the use of consistent assumptions across NCA4, new scenario products for climate, population, and land use will be made available through initiatives such as NOAA's Climate Resilience Toolkit. NCA4 will be informed by user engagement to advance the customization of knowledge. The report will strive to advance our ability to quantify various risks, monetize certain impacts, and communicate the benefits (i.e., avoided impacts) of various mitigation pathways. NCAnet (a national network of climate-interested stakeholders) continues to grow and foster collaborations across levels of governance and within civil society. Finally, USGCRP continues to actively engage with other assessment processes, at international, state, city, and tribal levels, to exchange ideas and to facilitate the potential for "linked" assessments across spatial scales.

Assessment of the potential respiratory hazard of volcanic ash from future Icelandic eruptions: a study of archived basaltic to rhyolitic ash samples.

Science.gov (United States)

Damby, David E; Horwell, Claire J; Larsen, Gudrun; Thordarson, Thorvaldur; Tomatis, Maura; Fubini, Bice; Donaldson, Ken

2017-09-11

The eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Grímsvötn (2011), Iceland, triggered immediate, international consideration of the respiratory health hazard of inhaling volcanic ash, and prompted the need to estimate the potential hazard posed by future eruptions of Iceland's volcanoes to Icelandic and Northern European populations. A physicochemical characterization and toxicological assessment was conducted on a suite of archived ash samples spanning the spectrum of past eruptions (basaltic to rhyolitic magmatic composition) of Icelandic volcanoes following a protocol specifically designed by the International Volcanic Health Hazard Network. Icelandic ash can be of a respirable size (up to 11.3 vol.% fiber-like particles were observed, but those present comprised glass or sodium oxides, and are not related to pathogenic natural fibers, like asbestos or fibrous zeolites, thereby limiting concern of associated respiratory diseases. None of the samples contained cristobalite or tridymite, and only one sample contained quartz, minerals of interest due to the potential to cause silicosis. Sample surface areas are low, ranging from 0.4 to 1.6 m 2  g -1 , which aligns with analyses on ash from other eruptions worldwide. All samples generated a low level of hydroxyl radicals (HO • ), a measure of surface reactivity, through the iron-catalyzed Fenton reaction compared to concurrently analyzed comparative samples. However, radical generation increased after 'refreshing' sample surfaces, indicating that newly erupted samples may display higher reactivity. A composition-dependent range of available surface iron was measured after a 7-day incubation, from 22.5 to 315.7 μmol m -2 , with mafic samples releasing more iron than silicic samples. All samples were non-reactive in a test of red blood cell-membrane damage. The primary particle-specific concern is the potential for future eruptions of Iceland's volcanoes to generate fine, respirable material and, thus, to

Exploring the Future Potential of Jute in Bangladesh

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sanzidur Rahman

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The study assesses the future potential of the jute sector in Bangladesh by examining its growth performance, international competitiveness, profitability, and production efficiency using national time-series data of over the period 1973–2013 and farm survey data from 289 farmers from two major jute growing areas of Bangladesh. Results revealed that the jute sector has experienced substantial growth in area, production, productivity, prices, and exports. However, productivity has stagnated during the latter 10-year period (2004–2013, while it grew at a rate of 1.3% per annum (p.a. during the first 31-year period (1973–2003. Only traditional jute production is globally competitive, although financial profitability of white jute is relatively higher (benefit cost ratio = 1.24 and 1.17, respectively. Land, labor, and irrigation are the main productivity drivers for jute. The mean production efficiency of jute is estimated at 75% indicating substantial scope to improve yield by eliminating inefficiency. Marginal farmers are relatively inefficient. Policy implications include investments in research and development, irrigation, and tenurial reform and export protection for white jute in order to revive the sector and boost export earnings.

Utilization of Used Nuclear Fuel in a Potential Future US Fuel Cycle Scenario - 13499

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Worrall, Andrew [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, P.O. BOX 2008 MS6172, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831-6172 (United States)

2013-07-01

from the FRs due to time in the core, cooling time, reprocessing, and re-fabrication time is built into the analysis, along with impacts in delays and other key assumptions and sensitivities have been investigated. The results of this assessment highlight how the UNF from future reactors (LWRs and FRs) and the resulting fissile materials (U and Pu) from reprocessing can be effectively utilized, and show that the timings of future nuclear programs are key considerations (both for reactors and fuel cycle facilities). The analysis also highlights how the timings are relevant to managing the UNF and how such an analysis can therefore assist in informing the potential future R and D strategy and needs of the US fuel cycle programs and reactor technology. (authors)

Utilization of Used Nuclear Fuel in a Potential Future US Fuel Cycle Scenario - 13499

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Worrall, Andrew

2013-01-01

from the FRs due to time in the core, cooling time, reprocessing, and re-fabrication time is built into the analysis, along with impacts in delays and other key assumptions and sensitivities have been investigated. The results of this assessment highlight how the UNF from future reactors (LWRs and FRs) and the resulting fissile materials (U and Pu) from reprocessing can be effectively utilized, and show that the timings of future nuclear programs are key considerations (both for reactors and fuel cycle facilities). The analysis also highlights how the timings are relevant to managing the UNF and how such an analysis can therefore assist in informing the potential future R and D strategy and needs of the US fuel cycle programs and reactor technology. (authors)

Neutron sources: Present practice and future potential

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cierjacks, S.; Smith, A.B.

1988-01-01

The present capability and future potential of accelerator-based monoenergetic and white neutron sources are outlined in the context of fundamental and applied neutron-nuclear research. The neutron energy range extends from thermal to 500 MeV, and the time domain from steady-state to pico-second pulsed sources. Accelerator technology is summarized, including the production of intense light-ion, heavy-ion and electron beams. Target capabilities are discussed with attention to neutron-producing efficiency and power-handling capabilities. The status of underlying neutron-producing reactions is summarized. The present and future use of neutron sources in: fundamental neutron-nuclear research, nuclear data acquisition, materials damage studies, engineering tests, and biomedical applications are discussed. Emphasis is given to current status, near-term advances well within current technology, and to long-range projections. 90 refs., 4 figs

Future integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment considering land use / land cover and climate change using DRASTIC and SWAT

Science.gov (United States)

Jang, W.; Engel, B.; Chaubey, I.

2015-12-01

Climate change causes significant changes to temperature regimes and precipitation patterns across the world. Such alterations in climate pose serious risks for not only inland freshwater ecosystems but also groundwater systems, and may adversely affect numerous critical services they provide to humans. All groundwater results from precipitation, and precipitation is affected by climate change. Climate change is also influenced by land use / land cover (LULC) change and vice versa. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, climate change is caused by global warming which is generated by the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere. LULC change is a major driving factor causing an increase in GHG emissions. LULC change data (years 2006-2100) will be produced by the Land Transformation Model (LTM) which simulates spatial patterns of LULC change over time. MIROC5 (years 2006-2100) will be obtained considering GCMs and ensemble characteristics such as resolution and trend of temperature and precipitation which is a consistency check with observed data from local weather stations and historical data from GCMs output data. Thus, MIROC5 will be used to account for future climate change scenarios and relationship between future climate change and alteration of groundwater quality in this study. For efficient groundwater resources management, integrated aquifer vulnerability assessments (= intrinsic vulnerability + hazard potential assessment) are required. DRASTIC will be used to evaluate intrinsic vulnerability, and aquifer hazard potential will be evaluated by Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) which can simulate pollution potential from surface and transport properties of contaminants. Thus, for effective integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment for LULC and climate change in the Midwestern United States, future projected LULC and climate data from the LTM and GCMs will be incorporated with DRASTIC and SWAT. It is

Quantitative health impact assessment: current practice and future directions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J.L. Veerman (Lennert); J.J.M. Barendregt (Jan); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan)

2005-01-01

textabstractSTUDY OBJECTIVE: To assess what methods are used in quantitative health impact assessment (HIA), and to identify areas for future research and development. DESIGN: HIA reports were assessed for (1) methods used to quantify effects of policy on determinants of health

Multi-model and multi-scenario assessments of Asian water futures: The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative

Science.gov (United States)

Satoh, Yusuke; Kahil, Taher; Byers, Edward; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Greve, Peter; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Magnuszewski, Piotr; Nava, Luzma Fabiola; Cosgrove, William; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-07-01

This paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water supply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry, and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30-40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6-2 billion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to gross domestic product (GDP) growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21st century.

Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transportation systems. Volume 7: Study recommendations

Science.gov (United States)

1976-01-01

Research and analysis tasks to alleviate negative impacts, to augment positive impacts, or to better understand the impacts produced by the potential introduction of the alternate transportation technologies are identified. The project team's recommendations on research and analysis efforts which have resulted from the technology assessment are provided. Many of the recommendations apply to the future supply of intercity passenger transportation services, categorized by mode. Other recommendations pertain to broad issues in intercity transportation--e.g., finance, regulation, traveler values--that will affect all modes.

A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK

Science.gov (United States)

Guillod, Benoit P.; Jones, Richard G.; Dadson, Simon J.; Coxon, Gemma; Bussi, Gianbattista; Freer, James; Kay, Alison L.; Massey, Neil R.; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Wallom, David C. H.; Allen, Myles R.; Hall, Jim W.

2018-01-01

Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of risk-based approaches often requires large sets of extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present such a large set of hydro-meteorological time series for recent past and future conditions for the United Kingdom based on weather@home 2, a modelling framework consisting of a global climate model (GCM) driven by observed or projected sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice which is downscaled to 25 km over the European domain by a regional climate model (RCM). Sets of 100 time series are generated for each of (i) a historical baseline (1900-2006), (ii) five near-future scenarios (2020-2049) and (iii) five far-future scenarios (2070-2099). The five scenarios in each future time slice all follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and sample the range of sea surface temperature and sea ice changes from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. Validation of the historical baseline highlights good performance for temperature and potential evaporation, but substantial seasonal biases in mean precipitation, which are corrected using a linear approach. For extremes in low precipitation over a long accumulation period ( > 3 months) and shorter-duration high precipitation (1-30 days), the time series generally represents past statistics well. Future projections show small precipitation increases in winter but large decreases in summer on average, leading to an overall drying, consistently with the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) but larger in magnitude than the latter. Both drought and high-precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in most regions

Conventional engine technology. Volume 3: Comparisons and future potential

Science.gov (United States)

Dowdy, M. W.

1981-01-01

The status of five conventional automobile engine technologies was assessed and the future potential for increasing fuel economy and reducing exhaust emission was discussed, using the 1980 EPA California emisions standards as a comparative basis. By 1986, the fuel economy of a uniform charge Otto engine with a three-way catalyst is expected to increase 10%, while vehicles with lean burn (fast burn) engines should show a 20% fuel economy increase. Although vehicles with stratified-charge engines and rotary engines are expected to improve, their fuel economy will remain inferior to the other engine types. When adequate NO emissions control methods are implemented to meet the EPA requirements, vehicles with prechamber diesel engines are expected to yield a fuel economy advantage of about 15%. While successful introduction of direct injection diesel engine technology will provide a fuel savings of 30 to 35%, the planned regulation of exhaust particulates could seriously hinder this technology, because it is expected that only the smallest diesel engine vehicles could meet the proposed particulate requirements.

A horizon scanning assessment of current and potential future threats to migratory shorebirds

Science.gov (United States)

Sutherland, William J.; Alves, José A.; Amano, Tatsuya; Chang, Charlotte H.; Davidson, Nicholas C.; Finlayson, C. Max; Gill, Jennifer A.; Gill, Robert E.; González, Patricia M.; Gunnarsson, Tómas Grétar; Kleijn, David; Spray, Chris J.; Székely, Tamás; Thompson, Des B.A.

2012-01-01

We review the conservation issues facing migratory shorebird populations that breed in temperate regions and use wetlands in the non-breeding season. Shorebirds are excellent model organisms for understanding ecological, behavioural and evolutionary processes and are often used as indicators of wetland health. A global team of experienced shorebird researchers identified 45 issues facing these shorebird populations, and divided them into three categories (natural, current anthropogenic and future issues). The natural issues included megatsunamis, volcanoes and regional climate changes, while current anthropogenic threats encompassed agricultural intensification, conversion of tidal flats and coastal wetlands by human infrastructure developments and eutrophication of coastal systems. Possible future threats to shorebirds include microplastics, new means of recreation and infectious diseases. We suggest that this review process be broadened to other taxa to aid the identification and ranking of current and future conservation actions.

Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-12-01

This report documents the future human actions, FHA, considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Site (see further the Main report /SKB 2011/). The purpose of this report is to provide an account of general considerations concerning FHA, the methodology applied in SR-Site to assess FHA, the aspects of FHA needed to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository and to select and analyse representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis. The main focus of this report is a time period when institutional control has ceased to be effective, thereby permitting inadvertent intrusion. However, a brief discussion of the earlier period when the repository has been closed, sealed and continuously kept under institutional control is also provided. General The potential exposure to large quantities of radiotoxic material is an inescapable consequence of the deposition of spent nuclear fuel in a final repository, and consequently intrusion into the repository needs to be considered in repository design and safety assessment. In accordance with ICRP recommendations /ICRP 2000/, intrusion in the post-closure phase of institutional control and beyond is primarily prevented through the design of the repository. In addition to that there will presumably continue to be safeguards measures, preservation of information (record keeping) and possibly some sort of markers placed at the site. During the institutional control period, activities at the site have to be restricted or directed if they have the potential to interfere with or hinder surveillance of the site, but this does not necessarily rule out all forms of access to the area. Also the fact that the repository contains fissile materials is an important aspect. Control of safeguards measures will most likely be upheld by national as well as international agencies. Furthermore, the

Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2010-12-15

This report documents the future human actions, FHA, considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Site (see further the Main report /SKB 2011/). The purpose of this report is to provide an account of general considerations concerning FHA, the methodology applied in SR-Site to assess FHA, the aspects of FHA needed to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository and to select and analyse representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis. The main focus of this report is a time period when institutional control has ceased to be effective, thereby permitting inadvertent intrusion. However, a brief discussion of the earlier period when the repository has been closed, sealed and continuously kept under institutional control is also provided. General The potential exposure to large quantities of radiotoxic material is an inescapable consequence of the deposition of spent nuclear fuel in a final repository, and consequently intrusion into the repository needs to be considered in repository design and safety assessment. In accordance with ICRP recommendations /ICRP 2000/, intrusion in the post-closure phase of institutional control and beyond is primarily prevented through the design of the repository. In addition to that there will presumably continue to be safeguards measures, preservation of information (record keeping) and possibly some sort of markers placed at the site. During the institutional control period, activities at the site have to be restricted or directed if they have the potential to interfere with or hinder surveillance of the site, but this does not necessarily rule out all forms of access to the area. Also the fact that the repository contains fissile materials is an important aspect. Control of safeguards measures will most likely be upheld by national as well as international agencies. Furthermore, the

Quantifying the effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application to future flood risk assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Kinoshita, Youhei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

2018-01-01

This study represents the first attempt to quantify the effects of autonomous adaptation on the projection of global flood hazards and to assess future flood risk by including this effect. A vulnerability scenario, which varies according to the autonomous adaptation effect for conventional disaster mitigation efforts, was developed based on historical vulnerability values derived from flood damage records and a river inundation simulation. Coupled with general circulation model outputs and future socioeconomic scenarios, potential future flood fatalities and economic loss were estimated. By including the effect of autonomous adaptation, our multimodel ensemble estimates projected a 2.0% decrease in potential flood fatalities and an 821% increase in potential economic losses by 2100 under the highest emission scenario together with a large population increase. Vulnerability changes reduced potential flood consequences by 64%-72% in terms of potential fatalities and 28%-42% in terms of potential economic losses by 2100. Although socioeconomic changes made the greatest contribution to the potential increased consequences of future floods, about a half of the increase of potential economic losses was mitigated by autonomous adaptation. There is a clear and positive relationship between the global temperature increase from the pre-industrial level and the estimated mean potential flood economic loss, while there is a negative relationship with potential fatalities due to the autonomous adaptation effect. A bootstrapping analysis suggests a significant increase in potential flood fatalities (+5.7%) without any adaptation if the temperature increases by 1.5 °C-2.0 °C, whereas the increase in potential economic loss (+0.9%) was not significant. Our method enables the effects of autonomous adaptation and additional adaptation efforts on climate-induced hazards to be distinguished, which would be essential for the accurate estimation of the cost of adaptation to

Is ambiguity tolerance malleable? Experimental evidence with potential implications for future research.

Science.gov (United States)

Endres, Megan L; Camp, Richaurd; Milner, Morgan

2015-01-01

We conducted two research studies to address the malleability of tolerance of ambiguity (TA) by manipulating situational ambiguity. Students participated in a semester-end assessment of their management skills (n = 306). In Study 1, students in low and moderate ambiguity conditions had significantly higher post-experiment TA, more positive change in self-efficacy, and marginally higher faculty ratings. In Study 2, a control group (n = 103) did not participate in the assessment and was established for comparison to the first study results. The Study 2 students reported TA significantly lower than Study 1 students in the low and moderate ambiguity conditions. The control group TA was not significantly different from that of the Study 1 high ambiguity condition. This further suggested TA's situational malleability, as those who had controlled access to structured information appeared to have increased their TA over that observed in the other two groups. These results suggest that TA may be malleable. We review the relevant literature, offer hypotheses, report our analyses and findings, and then propose future research, and potential prescriptive applications in such areas as management development, assessment, and decision-making.

Is ambiguity tolerance malleable? Experimental evidence with potential implications for future research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Megan L Endres

2015-05-01

Full Text Available We conducted two research studies to address the malleability of TA by manipulating situational ambiguity. Students participated in a semester-end assessment of their management skills (n = 306. In Study 1, students in low and moderate ambiguity conditions had significantly higher post-experiment TA, more positive change in self-efficacy, and marginally higher faculty ratings. In Study 2, a control group (n = 103 did not participate in the assessment and was established for comparison to the first study results. The Study 2 students reported TA significantly lower than Study 1 students in the low and moderate ambiguity conditions. The control group TA was not significantly different from that of the Study 1 high ambiguity condition. This further suggested TA’s situational malleability, as those who had controlled access to structured information appeared to have increased their TA over that observed in the other two groups. These results suggest that TA may be malleable. We review the relevant literature, offer hypotheses, report our analyses and findings, and then propose future research and potential prescriptive applications in such areas as management development, assessment, and decision-making.

Potential Futures for Information.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ackermann, Mark R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-11-01

Information is one of the most powerful tools available today. All advances in technology may be used, as David Sarnoff said, for the benefit or harm of society. Information can be used to shape the future by free people, or used to control people by less than benevolent governments, as has been demonstrated since the mid - 1930s, and with growing frequency over the past 50 years. What promised to once set people free and fuel an industrial revolution that might improve the standard of living over most of the world, has also been used to manipulate and enslave entire populations. The future of information is tied to the future of technologies that support the collection of data, processing those data into information and knowledge, and distribution. Technologies supporting the future of information must include technologies that help protect the integrity of data and information, and help to guarantee its discoverability and appropriate availability -- often to the whole of society. This Page Intentionally Left Blank

Assessment approaches in massive open online courses: Possibilities, challenges and future directions

Science.gov (United States)

Xiong, Yao; Suen, Hoi K.

2018-03-01

The development of massive open online courses (MOOCs) has launched an era of large-scale interactive participation in education. While massive open enrolment and the advances of learning technology are creating exciting potentials for lifelong learning in formal and informal ways, the implementation of efficient and effective assessment is still problematic. To ensure that genuine learning occurs, both assessments for learning (formative assessments), which evaluate students' current progress, and assessments of learning (summative assessments), which record students' cumulative progress, are needed. Providers' more recent shift towards the granting of certificates and digital badges for course accomplishments also indicates the need for proper, secure and accurate assessment results to ensure accountability. This article examines possible assessment approaches that fit open online education from formative and summative assessment perspectives. The authors discuss the importance of, and challenges to, implementing assessments of MOOC learners' progress for both purposes. Various formative and summative assessment approaches are then identified. The authors examine and analyse their respective advantages and disadvantages. They conclude that peer assessment is quite possibly the only universally applicable approach in massive open online education. They discuss the promises, practical and technical challenges, current developments in and recommendations for implementing peer assessment. They also suggest some possible future research directions.

Global Energy Assessment. Toward a Sustainable Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johansson, T B; Nakicenovic, N; Patwardhan, A; Gomez-Echeverri, L [eds.

2012-11-01

The Global Energy Assessment (GEA) brings together over 300 international researchers to provide an independent, scientifically based, integrated and policy-relevant analysis of current and emerging energy issues and options. It has been peer-reviewed anonymously by an additional 200 international experts. The GEA assesses the major global challenges for sustainable development and their linkages to energy; the technologies and resources available for providing energy services; future energy systems that address the major challenges; and the policies and other measures that are needed to realize transformational change toward sustainable energy futures. The GEA goes beyond existing studies on energy issues by presenting a comprehensive and integrated analysis of energy challenges, opportunities and strategies, for developing, industrialized and emerging economies. This volume is an invaluable resource for energy specialists and technologists in all sectors (academia, industry and government) as well as policymakers, development economists and practitioners in international organizations and national governments.

Assessment of Future Skills Requirements in the Hospitality Sector in Ireland, 2015-2020

OpenAIRE

2015-01-01

The hospitality sector is one of the most important employment services sectors in the Irish economy, and there is significant potential for future expansion. The objective of this study is to assess the skills demand needs arising within the Hospitality sector in Ireland – hotels, restaurants, bars, canteens and catering – over the period to 2020. The aim is to ensure that there will be the right supply of skills to help drive domestic hospitality sector business and employment growth.

Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Fagre, Daniel B.; Pederson, Gregory; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Prato, Tony; Qui, Zeyuan; Williams, Jimmie R.

2010-01-01

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting

Potential Economic Benefits of Adapting Agricultural Production Systems to Future Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Williams, Jimmy R.

2010-03-01

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to

Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E; Williams, Jimmy R

2010-03-01

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO(2) emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs

Modeling the yield potential of dryland canola under current and future climates in California

Science.gov (United States)

George, N.; Kaffka, S.; Beeck, C.; Bucaram, S.; Zhang, J.

2012-12-01

Models predict that the climate of California will become hotter, drier and more variable under future climate change scenarios. This will lead to both increased irrigation demand and reduced irrigation water availability. In addition, it is predicted that most common Californian crops will suffer a concomitant decline in productivity. To remain productive and economically viable, future agricultural systems will need to have greater water use efficiency, tolerance of high temperatures, and tolerance of more erratic temperature and rainfall patterns. Canola (Brassica napus) is the third most important oilseed globally, supporting large and well-established agricultural industries in Canada, Europe and Australia. It is an agronomically useful and economically valuable crop, with multiple end markets, that can be grown in California as a dryland winter rotation with little to no irrigation demand. This gives canola great potential as a new crop for Californian farmers both now and as the climate changes. Given practical and financial limitations it is not always possible to immediately or widely evaluate a crop in a new region. Crop production models are therefore valuable tools for assessing the potential of new crops, better targeting further field research, and refining research questions. APSIM is a modular modeling framework developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia, it combines biophysical and management modules to simulate cropping systems. This study was undertaken to examine the yield potential of Australian canola varieties having different water requirements and maturity classes in California using APSIM. The objective of the work was to identify the agricultural regions of California most ideally suited to the production of Australian cultivars of canola and to simulate the production of canola in these regions to estimate yield-potential. This will establish whether the introduction and in-field evaluation of better

Assessment of the potential respiratory hazard of volcanic ash from future Icelandic eruptions: A study of archived basaltic to rhyolitic ash samples

Science.gov (United States)

Damby, David; Horwell, Claire J.; Larsen, Gudrun; Thordarson, Thorvaldur; Tomatis, Maura; Fubini, Bice; Donaldson, Ken

2017-01-01

BackgroundThe eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Grímsvötn (2011), Iceland, triggered immediate, international consideration of the respiratory health hazard of inhaling volcanic ash, and prompted the need to estimate the potential hazard posed by future eruptions of Iceland’s volcanoes to Icelandic and Northern European populations. MethodsA physicochemical characterization and toxicological assessment was conducted on a suite of archived ash samples spanning the spectrum of past eruptions (basaltic to rhyolitic magmatic composition) of Icelandic volcanoes following a protocol specifically designed by the International Volcanic Health Hazard Network. ResultsIcelandic ash can be of a respirable size (up to 11.3 vol.% < 4 μm), but the samples did not display physicochemical characteristics of pathogenic particulate in terms of composition or morphology. Ash particles were generally angular, being composed of fragmented glass and crystals. Few fiber-like particles were observed, but those present comprised glass or sodium oxides, and are not related to pathogenic natural fibers, like asbestos or fibrous zeolites, thereby limiting concern of associated respiratory diseases. None of the samples contained cristobalite or tridymite, and only one sample contained quartz, minerals of interest due to the potential to cause silicosis. Sample surface areas are low, ranging from 0.4 to 1.6 m2 g−1, which aligns with analyses on ash from other eruptions worldwide. All samples generated a low level of hydroxyl radicals (HO•), a measure of surface reactivity, through the iron-catalyzed Fenton reaction compared to concurrently analyzed comparative samples. However, radical generation increased after ‘refreshing’ sample surfaces, indicating that newly erupted samples may display higher reactivity. A composition-dependent range of available surface iron was measured after a 7-day incubation, from 22.5 to 315.7 μmol m−2, with mafic samples releasing more iron

Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

Science.gov (United States)

Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

2016-04-01

activities. The method results in the development of LULC maps providing insights into a range of alternative futures using a scope of socio-economic and environmental conditions. A landslides assessment model, the ALICE model is then used as a final tool to analyze the potential impacts of simulated LUCC on landslide risks and the consequences in terms of vulnerability, e.g. changes in disaster risk allocation or characterization, degree of perturbation. This assessment intends to provide insights onto the potential future development of the valley to help identify areas at stake and to guide decision makers to help the risk management. Preliminary results show strong differences of futures land use and land cover maps that have significant influence on landslides hazards.

Rooftop solar photovoltaic potential in cities: how scalable are assessment approaches?

Science.gov (United States)

Castellanos, Sergio; Sunter, Deborah A.; Kammen, Daniel M.

2017-12-01

Distributed photovoltaics (PV) have played a critical role in the deployment of solar energy, currently making up roughly half of the global PV installed capacity. However, there remains significant unused economically beneficial potential. Estimates of the total technical potential for rooftop PV systems in the United States calculate a generation comparable to approximately 40% of the 2016 total national electric-sector sales. To best take advantage of the rooftop PV potential, effective analytic tools that support deployment strategies and aggressive local, state, and national policies to reduce the soft cost of solar energy are vital. A key step is the low-cost automation of data analysis and business case presentation for structure-integrated solar energy. In this paper, the scalability and resolution of various methods to assess the urban rooftop PV potential are compared, concluding with suggestions for future work in bridging methodologies to better assist policy makers.

Assessment of rainwater harvesting potential using GIS

Science.gov (United States)

Hari, Durgasrilakshmi; Ramamohan Reddy, K.; Vikas, Kola; Srinivas, N.; Vikas, G.

2018-03-01

Rainwater harvesting (RWH) is one of the best practices to overcome the scarcity of water. Rainwater harvesting involves collection and storage of rainwater locally through different technologies, for future use. It is also useful for livestock, groundwater recharge and for irrigation practices. Potential of rainwater harvesting refers to the capacity of an individual catchment that harnesses the water falling on the catchment during a particular year considering all rainy days. The present study deals with the identification of the study area boundary and marking it as a Polygon in Google Earth Pro Later, Rooftops of various house entities and roads were digitized using the Polygon command in Google Earth Pro. GIS technique is employed for locating boundaries of the study area and for calculating the areas of various types of rooftops and roads. With the application of GIS, it is possible to assess the total potential of water that can be harvested. The present study will enable us to identify the suitable type of water harvesting structure along with the number of structures required. It is extremely an ideal and effective solution to overcome the water crisis through water conservation in the study area.

Future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

. USDA Forest Service.

2012-01-01

The Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 (RPA) mandates a periodic assessment of the conditions and trends of the Nation's renewable resources on forests and rangelands. The RPA Assessment includes projections of resource conditions and trends 50 years into the future. The 2010 RPA Assessment used a set of future scenarios to provide a...

ASSESSMENT OF STUDENTS’ PROFESSIONAL COMPETENCIES – THE FUTURE TEACHERS OF MATHEMATICS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariya B. Shashkina

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of the investigation is to describe the authors’ approach to the assessment of the professional competence of the future teacher of mathematics.Methods. The methods involve comparative analysis of the Professional Standard of the teacher and the Federal State Educational Standards in teacher education, as well as the method of predictive analysis of modern educational situation.Results. Qualimetric approach to the structuring of the professional competencies of students is described; it allows concretizing the assessment object, to select the criteria and levels of its formedness, to trace the dynamics of development in the medium of profile preparation of a bachelor. The methodology of assessment a professional-profile competence of the future mathematics teachers is proposed; examples of the competence-assessment tools are provided.Scientific novelty. The study gives a detailed analysis of developing the innovative approach to competencies assessment as metasubject learning outcomes.Practical significance. The proposed method of competencies assessment can be used in the mathematical preparation of the future mathematics teacher, and can serve as a basis for monitoring the professional competencies of students.

A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. P. Guillod

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of risk-based approaches often requires large sets of extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present such a large set of hydro-meteorological time series for recent past and future conditions for the United Kingdom based on weather@home 2, a modelling framework consisting of a global climate model (GCM driven by observed or projected sea surface temperature (SST and sea ice which is downscaled to 25 km over the European domain by a regional climate model (RCM. Sets of 100 time series are generated for each of (i a historical baseline (1900–2006, (ii five near-future scenarios (2020–2049 and (iii five far-future scenarios (2070–2099. The five scenarios in each future time slice all follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5 and sample the range of sea surface temperature and sea ice changes from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. Validation of the historical baseline highlights good performance for temperature and potential evaporation, but substantial seasonal biases in mean precipitation, which are corrected using a linear approach. For extremes in low precipitation over a long accumulation period ( > 3 months and shorter-duration high precipitation (1–30 days, the time series generally represents past statistics well. Future projections show small precipitation increases in winter but large decreases in summer on average, leading to an overall drying, consistently with the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09 but larger in magnitude than the latter. Both drought and high-precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and

A Critical Assessment of the Resource Depletion Potential of Current and Future Lithium-Ion Batteries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jens F. Peters

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Resource depletion aspects are repeatedly used as an argument for a shift towards new battery technologies. However, whether serious shortages due to the increased demand for traction and stationary batteries can actually be expected is subject to an ongoing discussion. In order to identify the principal drivers of resource depletion for battery production, we assess different lithium-ion battery types and a new lithium-free battery technology (sodium-ion under this aspect, applying different assessment methodologies. The findings show that very different results are obtained with existing impact assessment methodologies, which hinders clear interpretation. While cobalt, nickel and copper can generally be considered as critical metals, the magnitude of their depletion impacts in comparison with that of other battery materials like lithium, aluminum or manganese differs substantially. A high importance is also found for indirect resource depletion effects caused by the co-extraction of metals from mixed ores. Remarkably, the resource depletion potential per kg of produced battery is driven only partially by the electrode materials and thus depends comparably little on the battery chemistry itself. One of the key drivers for resource depletion seems to be the metals (and co-products in electronic parts required for the battery management system, a component rather independent from the actual battery chemistry. However, when assessing the batteries on a capacity basis (per kWh storage capacity, a high-energy density also turns out to be relevant, since it reduces the mass of battery required for providing one kWh, and thus the associated resource depletion impacts.

A generic hydroeconomic model to assess future water scarcity

Science.gov (United States)

Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice

2015-04-01

We developed a generic hydroeconomic model able to confront future water supply and demand on a large scale, taking into account man-made reservoirs. The assessment is done at the scale of river basins, using only globally available data; the methodology can thus be generalized. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources. The available quantity of water at each site is computed using the following information: runoff is taken from the outputs of CNRM climate model (Dubois et al., 2010), reservoirs are located using Aquastat, and the sub-basin flow-accumulation area of each reservoir is determined based on a Digital Elevation Model (HYDRO1k). On the demand side, agricultural and domestic demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. For the agricultural sector, globally available data on irrigated areas and crops are combined in order to determine irrigated crops localization. Then, crops irrigation requirements are computed for the different stages of the growing season using Allen (1998) method with Hargreaves potential evapotranspiration. Irrigation water economic value is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. Potential irrigated and rainfed yields are taken from LPJmL (Blondeau et al., 2007), or from FAOSTAT by making simple assumptions on yield ratios. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The method consists in building three-blocks inverse demand functions where volume limits of the blocks evolve with the level of GDP per capita. The value of water along the demand curve is determined from price-elasticity, price and demand data from the literature, using the point-expansion method, and from water costs data. Then projected demands are confronted to future water availability. Operating rules of the reservoirs and water allocation between demands are based on

Beyond the MEGA BORG: The future of cooperative damage assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmidt, J.P.; Seiler, R.; Mauseth, G.

1993-01-01

Prespill planning and coordination are the major requirements of industry and government to ensure future cooperative natural resource damage assessments (NRDA). Since oil spills most often occur without warning, both parties must be prepared prior to an oil spill into the environment. Federal and State co-trustees should enter into a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to ensure cooperation and coordination among trustees in all NRDA activities. The MOU should provide the framework whereby each trustee's resource interests can be represented. Ideally, MOUs should be prepared during the prespill planning process, although the MEGA BORG MOU was prepared soon after the actual discharge. The establishment of co-trustee working groups will foster the positive working relationships necessary in cooperative NRDAs. The trustees should identify all potential co-trustees in a given area and agree on a mechanism for trustee notification. Criteria for the rapid designation of the Lead Administrative Trustee and approaches for coordination with response agencies and potential responsible parties (PRPs) need to be developed. Most importantly, the trustees should identify PRPs and invite their participation in the prespill planning process

Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Faber, Irene R; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T; Faber, Niels R; Oosterveld, Frits G J; Nijhuis-Van der Sanden, Maria W G

2016-01-01

Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be included in a talent

Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irene R Faber

Full Text Available Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years. Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05. Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%. Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%. This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be

Communicating uncertainties in assessments of future sea level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Wikman-Svahn, P.

2013-12-01

How uncertainty should be managed and communicated in policy-relevant scientific assessments is directly connected to the role of science and the responsibility of scientists. These fundamentally philosophical issues influence how scientific assessments are made and how scientific findings are communicated to policymakers. It is therefore of high importance to discuss implicit assumptions and value judgments that are made in policy-relevant scientific assessments. The present paper examines these issues for the case of scientific assessments of future sea level rise. The magnitude of future sea level rise is very uncertain, mainly due to poor scientific understanding of all physical mechanisms affecting the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, which together hold enough land-based ice to raise sea levels more than 60 meters if completely melted. There has been much confusion from policymakers on how different assessments of future sea levels should be interpreted. Much of this confusion is probably due to how uncertainties are characterized and communicated in these assessments. The present paper draws on the recent philosophical debate on the so-called "value-free ideal of science" - the view that science should not be based on social and ethical values. Issues related to how uncertainty is handled in scientific assessments are central to this debate. This literature has much focused on how uncertainty in data, parameters or models implies that choices have to be made, which can have social consequences. However, less emphasis has been on how uncertainty is characterized when communicating the findings of a study, which is the focus of the present paper. The paper argues that there is a tension between on the one hand the value-free ideal of science and on the other hand usefulness for practical applications in society. This means that even if the value-free ideal could be upheld in theory, by carefully constructing and hedging statements characterizing

Screening Assessment of Potential Human-Health Risk from Future Natural-Gas Drilling Near Project Rulison in Western Colorado

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Daniels Jeffrey I.,Chapman Jenny B.

2012-01-01

The Project Rulison underground nuclear test was conducted in 1969 at a depth of 8,400 ft in the Williams Fork Formation of the Piceance Basin, west-central Colorado (Figure 1). The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) is the steward of the site. Their management is guided by data collected from past site investigations and current monitoring, and by the results of calculations of expected behavior of contaminants remaining in the deep subsurface. The purpose of this screening risk assessment is to evaluate possible health risks from current and future exposure to Rulison contaminants so the information can be factored into LM's stewardship decisions. For example, these risk assessment results can inform decisions regarding institutional controls at the site and appropriate monitoring of nearby natural-gas extraction activities. Specifically, the screening risk analysis can provide guidance for setting appropriate action levels for contaminant monitoring to ensure protection of human health.

Screening Assessment of Potential Human-Health Risk from Future Natural-Gas Drilling Near Project Rulison in Western Colorado

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daniels, Jeffrey I.; Chapman, Jenny B.

2012-01-01

The Project Rulison underground nuclear test was conducted in 1969 at a depth of 8,400 ft in the Williams Fork Formation of the Piceance Basin, west-central Colorado (Figure 1). The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) is the steward of the site. Their management is guided by data collected from past site investigations and current monitoring, and by the results of calculations of expected behavior of contaminants remaining in the deep subsurface. The purpose of this screening risk assessment is to evaluate possible health risks from current and future exposure to Rulison contaminants so the information can be factored into LM's stewardship decisions. For example, these risk assessment results can inform decisions regarding institutional controls at the site and appropriate monitoring of nearby natural-gas extraction activities. Specifically, the screening risk analysis can provide guidance for setting appropriate action levels for contaminant monitoring to ensure protection of human health.

Assessment of the Economic Potential of Distributed Wind in Colorado, Minnesota, and New York

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McCabe, Kevin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin O. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mooney, Meghan E. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2018-01-03

This work seeks to identify current and future spatial distributions of economic potential for behind-the-meter distributed wind, serving primarily rural or suburban homes, farms, and manufacturing facilities in Colorado, Minnesota, and New York. These states were identified by technical experts based on their current favorability for distributed wind deployment. We use NREL's Distributed Wind Market Demand Model (dWind) (Lantz et al. 2017; Sigrin et al. 2016) to identify and rank counties in each of the states by their overall and per capita potential. From this baseline assessment, we also explore how and where improvements in cost, performance, and other market sensitivities affect distributed wind potential.

Quantifying the potential for reservoirs to secure future surface water yields in the world’s largest river basins

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Lu; Parkinson, Simon; Gidden, Matthew; Byers, Edward; Satoh, Yusuke; Riahi, Keywan; Forman, Barton

2018-04-01

Surface water reservoirs provide us with reliable water supply, hydropower generation, flood control and recreation services. Yet reservoirs also cause flow fragmentation in rivers and lead to flooding of upstream areas, thereby displacing existing land-use activities and ecosystems. Anticipated population growth and development coupled with climate change in many regions of the globe suggests a critical need to assess the potential for future reservoir capacity to help balance rising water demands with long-term water availability. Here, we assess the potential of large-scale reservoirs to provide reliable surface water yields while also considering environmental flows within 235 of the world’s largest river basins. Maps of existing cropland and habitat conservation zones are integrated with spatially-explicit population and urbanization projections from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to identify regions unsuitable for increasing water supply by exploiting new reservoir storage. Results show that even when maximizing the global reservoir storage to its potential limit (∼4.3–4.8 times the current capacity), firm yields would only increase by about 50% over current levels. However, there exist large disparities across different basins. The majority of river basins in North America are found to gain relatively little firm yield by increasing storage capacity, whereas basins in Southeast Asia display greater potential for expansion as well as proportional gains in firm yield under multiple uncertainties. Parts of Europe, the United States and South America show relatively low reliability of maintaining current firm yields under future climate change, whereas most of Asia and higher latitude regions display comparatively high reliability. Findings from this study highlight the importance of incorporating different factors, including human development, land-use activities, and climate change, over a time span of multiple decades and across a range of different

How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts? Using the Quaternary to assess future reliability.

Science.gov (United States)

Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Blois, Jessica L; Williams, John W; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Maguire, Kaitlin C; Lorenz, David J

2018-03-23

Future climates are projected to be highly novel relative to recent climates. Climate novelty challenges models that correlate ecological patterns to climate variables and then use these relationships to forecast ecological responses to future climate change. Here, we quantify the magnitude and ecological significance of future climate novelty by comparing it to novel climates over the past 21,000 years in North America. We then use relationships between model performance and climate novelty derived from the fossil pollen record from eastern North America to estimate the expected decrease in predictive skill of ecological forecasting models as future climate novelty increases. We show that, in the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) and by late 21st century, future climate novelty is similar to or higher than peak levels of climate novelty over the last 21,000 years. The accuracy of ecological forecasting models is projected to decline steadily over the coming decades in response to increasing climate novelty, although models that incorporate co-occurrences among species may retain somewhat higher predictive skill. In addition to quantifying future climate novelty in the context of late Quaternary climate change, this work underscores the challenges of making reliable forecasts to an increasingly novel future, while highlighting the need to assess potential avenues for improvement, such as increased reliance on geological analogs for future novel climates and improving existing models by pooling data through time and incorporating assemblage-level information. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modeling and assessment of future IGCC plant concepts with CO{sub 2} capture; Simulation und Bewertung zukuenftiger IGCC-Kraftwerkskonzepte mit CO{sub 2}-Abtrennung

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kunze, Christian A.

2012-07-13

The thesis focuses on the assessment of efficiency potential of future IGCC plants with CO{sub 2} capture. Starting point is a comprehensive analysis (thermodynamic, economic and exergy) of a state of the art IGCC. Additionally, five future IGCC concepts are proposed and evaluated for their efficiency potential in the mid- and long-term. The concepts showed significantly higher efficiencies up to approximately 60% and enable an almost CO{sub 2}-free operation.

RPA Assessment of Outdoor Recreation: Past, Current, and Future Directions

Science.gov (United States)

John C. Bergstrom; H. Ken Cordell

1994-01-01

In this paper, the outdoor recreation sections of the Renewable Resource Planning Act (RPA) Assessments conducted to date are reviewed. Current policy and mangement applications of the outsdoor recreation results published in 1989 Assessment are discussed also. The paper concludes with suggestions for the assemssment of outdoor recreation in future RPA Assessements...

Assessment and evaluation of geothermal potential in Switzerland; Atlas des ressources geothermiques suisses

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andenmatten-Berthoud, N. [Geowatt AG, Zuerich (Switzerland); Kohl, T. [Eidgenossische Technische Hochschule (ETH), Institut de Geophysique, Zuerich (Switzerland)

2003-07-01

This report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy presents the first part of a project that aims at assessing the geothermal energy potential of Switzerland's underground. Due to the presence of the Alps the Swiss underground is highly heterogeneous with numerous geologic faults. Geothermal energy assessment has to be carried out region after region. The first steps consisted in collecting existing geological and hydrogeological data and finding out the best appropriate methodology. Analysis was restricted to the Northwest of Switzerland (Basle-Zurich area), which has a dense population - an important factor for future applications - and is better known than others, thanks to previous studies performed in conjunction with site pre-selection for future radioactive waste disposal facilities. In this area, sandstones and limestones are found on the crystalline bottom rock. Mathematical models and computer codes were developed for interpolation and extrapolation of local and regional data. Three dimensional finite-element techniques were used. The results are presented in diagrams and maps.

Safety assessments for potential exposures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dunn, D.I.

2012-04-01

Safety Assessment of potential exposures have been carried out in major practices, namely: industrial radiography, gamma irradiators and electron accelerators used in industry and research, and radiotherapy. This paper focuses on reviewing safety assessment methodologies and using developed software to analyse radiological accidents, also review, and discuss these past accidents.The primary objective of the assessment is to assess the adequacy of planned or existing measures for protection and safety and to identify any additional measures that should be put in place. As such, both routine use of the source and the probability and magnitude of potential exposures arising from accidents or incidents should be considered. Where the assessment indicates that there is a realistic possibility of an accident affecting workers or members of the public or having consequences for the environment, the registrant or licensee should prepare a suitable emergency plan. A safety assessment for normal operation addresses all the conditions under which the radiation source operates as expected, including all phases of the lifetime of the source. Due account needs to be taken of the different factors and conditions that will apply during non-operational phases, such as installation, commissioning and maintenance. (author)

Postcessation weight gain concern as a barrier to smoking cessation: Assessment considerations and future directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Germeroth, Lisa J; Levine, Michele D

2018-01-01

Concern about postcessation weight gain may be one potential barrier to quitting smoking. In this 'mini-review' of recent literature, we summarize findings on the relationship between postcessation weight gain concern and smoking cessation, and evaluate varied use of postcessation weight gain concern assessments and potential moderators of the postcessation weight gain concern-cessation association. We conducted a search using the terms "smoking" OR "smoking cessation" AND "weight concern" for articles published between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2016. We identified 17 studies assessing postcessation weight gain concern, seven of which evaluated the postcessation weight gain concern-cessation association. The relationship between postcessation weight gain concern and smoking cessation was mixed. Recent studies varied in their assessments of postcessation weight gain concern, many of which were not validated and assessed correlates of this construct. Studies varied in their adjustment of demographic (e.g., sex), smoking-specific (e.g., smoking level), and weight-specific (e.g., body mass index) variables. The use of non-validated assessments and variability in testing covariates/moderators may contribute to conflicting results regarding the postcessation weight gain concern-cessation relationship. We recommend validating an assessment of postcessation weight gain concern, maintaining vigilance in testing and reporting covariates/moderators, and investigating trajectories of this construct over time and by smoking status to inform future assessment and intervention efforts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential future exposure of European land transport infrastructure to rainfall-induced landslides throughout the 21st century

Science.gov (United States)

Schlögl, Matthias; Matulla, Christoph

2018-04-01

In the face of climate change, the assessment of land transport infrastructure exposure towards adverse climate events is of major importance for Europe's economic prosperity and social wellbeing. In this study, a climate index estimating rainfall patterns which trigger landslides in central Europe is analysed until the end of this century and compared to present-day conditions. The analysis of the potential future development of landslide risk is based on an ensemble of dynamically downscaled climate projections which are driven by the SRES A1B socio-economic scenario. Resulting regional-scale climate change projections across central Europe are concatenated with Europe's road and railway network. Results indicate overall increases of landslide occurrence. While flat terrain at low altitudes exhibits an increase of about 1 more potentially landslide-inducing rainfall period per year until the end of this century, higher elevated regions are more affected and show increases of up to 14 additional periods. This general spatial distribution emerges in the near future (2021-2050) but becomes more pronounced in the remote future (2071-2100). Since largest increases are to be found in Alsace, potential impacts of an increasing amount of landslides are discussed using the example of a case study covering the Black Forest mountain range in Baden-Württemberg by further enriching the climate information with additional geodata. The findings derived are suitable to support political decision makers and European authorities in transport, freight and logistics by offering detailed information on which parts of Europe's ground transport network are at particularly high risk concerning landslide activity.

Energy Saving Potential of PCMs in Buildings under Future Climate Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdo Abdullah Ahmed Gassar

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Energy consumption reduction under changing climate conditions is a major challenge in buildings design, where excessive energy consumption creates an economic and environmental burden. Improving thermal performance of the buildings through support applying phase change material (PCM is a promising strategy for reducing building energy consumption under future climate change. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the energy saving potentials in buildings under future climate conditions in the humid and snowy regions in the hot continental and humid subtropical climates of the east Asia (Seoul, Tokyo and Hong Kong when various PCMs with different phase change temperatures are applied to a lightweight building envelope. Methodology in this work is implemented in two phases: firstly, investigation of energy saving potentials in buildings through inclusion of three types of PCMs with different phase temperatures into the building envelop separately and use weather file in the present (2017; and, secondly, evaluation of the effect of future climate change on the performance of PCMs by analyzing energy saving potentials of PCMs with 2020, 2050 and 2080 weather data. The results show that the inclusion of PCM into the building envelope is a promising strategy to increase the energy performance in buildings during both heating and cooling seasons in Seoul, Tokyo and Hong Kong under future climate conditions. The energy savings achieved by using PCMs in those regions are electricity savings of 4.48–8.21%, 3.81–9.69%, and 1.94–5.15%, and gas savings of 1.65–16.59%, 7.60–61.76%, and 62.07–93.33% in Seoul, Tokyo and Hong Kong, respectively, for the years 2017, 2020, 2050 and 2080. In addition, BioPCM and RUBITHERMPCM are the most efficient for improving thermal performance and saving energy in buildings in the tested regions and years.

Energy potential of region and its quantitative assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tatyana Aleksandrovna Kovalenko

2013-09-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the article is the development of the concept of the energy potential of the region (EPR, the analysis of the existing structure of relationships for the EPR elements in Ukraine and improvement of a quantitative assessment of energy potential of the region (country. The methods of an assessment of the existing condition of energy potential of the territory are the subject matter of the research. As a result of the analysis of concept’s definitions of energy potential of the region, it has further development and included the consumer potential of energy resources and capacity of management. The structure of relationships between elements of energy potential is developed for the Ukraine region. The new economic indicator — the realized energy potential is offered for an EPR assessment. By means of this indicator, the assessment of energy potential for the different countries of the world and a number of Ukraine areas of is performed.

Flow and Noise Control: Review and Assessment of Future Directions

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Russell H.; Choudhari, Meelan M.; Joslin, Ronald D.

2002-01-01

Technologies for developing radically new aerovehicles that would combine quantum leaps in cost, safety, and performance benefits with environmental friendliness have appeared on the horizon. This report provides both an assessment of the current state-of-the-art in flow and noise control and a vision for the potential gains to be made, in terms of performance benefit for civil and military aircraft and a unique potential for noise reduction, via future advances in flow and noise technologies. This report outlines specific areas of research that will enable the breakthroughs necessary to bring this vision to reality. Recent developments in many topics within flow and noise control are reviewed. The flow control overview provides succinct summaries of various approaches for drag reduction and improved maneuvering. Both exterior and interior noise problems are examined, including dominant noise sources, physics of noise generation and propagation, and both established and proposed concepts for noise reduction. Synergy between flow and noise control is a focus and, more broadly, the need to pursue research in a more concurrent approach involving multiple disciplines. Also discussed are emerging technologies such as nanotechnology that may have a significant impact on the progress of flow and noise control.

The future of human rights impact assessments of trade agreements

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Walker, S.M.

2009-01-01

The Future of Human Rights Impact Assessments of Trade Agreements develops a methodology for human rights impact assessments of trade agreements and considers whether there is any value in using the methodology on a sustained basis to ensure that the human dimensions of international trade are taken

Environmental Assessment of Possible Future Waste Management Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yevgeniya Arushanyan

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Waste management has developed in many countries and will continue to do so. Changes towards increased recovery of resources in order to meet climate targets and for society to transition to a circular economy are important driving forces. Scenarios are important tools for planning and assessing possible future developments and policies. This paper presents a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA model for environmental assessments of scenarios and waste management policy instruments. It is unique by including almost all waste flows in a country and also allow for including waste prevention. The results show that the environmental impacts from future waste management scenarios in Sweden can differ a lot. Waste management will continue to contribute with environmental benefits, but less so in the more sustainable future scenarios, since the surrounding energy and transportation systems will be less polluting and also because less waste will be produced. Valuation results indicate that climate change, human toxicity and resource depletion are the most important environmental impact categories for the Swedish waste management system. Emissions of fossil CO2 from waste incineration will continue to be a major source of environmental impacts in these scenarios. The model is used for analyzing environmental impacts of several policy instruments including weight based collection fee, incineration tax, a resource tax and inclusion of waste in a green electricity certification system. The effect of the studied policy instruments in isolation are in most cases limited, suggesting that stronger policy instruments as well as combinations are necessary to reach policy goals as set out in for example the EU action plan on circular economy.

Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7–11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study

Science.gov (United States)

2016-01-01

Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players’ potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player’s future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7–11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items ‘aiming at target’, ‘throwing a ball’, and ‘eye-hand coordination’ in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment’s outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be

Are Managed Futures Indices Telling Truth? Biases in CTA Databases and Proposals of Potential Enhancements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adam Zaremba

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Managed futures are an alternative asset class which has recently became considerably popular among investment industry. However, due to its characteristics, access to managed futures historical performance statistics is relatively confined. All available information originates from commercial and academic databases, reporting to which is entirely voluntary. This situation results in series of biases which distort the managed futures performance in the eyes of investors. The paper consists of two parts. First, the author reviews and describes various biases that influence the reliability of the managed futures indices and databases. The second section encompasses author’s proposals of potential enhancements, which aim to reduce the impact of the biases in order to derive a benchmark that could better reflect characteristics of managed futures investment from the point of view of a potential investor.

Customer satisfaction and customer loyalty as predictors of future business potential

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eskildsen, Jacob Kjær; Kristensen, Kai

2008-01-01

This paper analyses the relationship between customer satisfaction, customer loyalty and the future business potential of existing customers. The data for the analysis come from the Danish Customer Satisfaction Index 2006. Here a total of approximately 2000 private customers evaluated...

Assessment and management of building enterprise development potential

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Елена Игоревна Угодникова

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the development of the generalized integrated criterion of the evaluation of building enterprise development potential. The developed indicator is based on the potential structuring, accounting weighting factors of each structural elements and the possibility of building enterprise capital raising. The algorithm of the potential evaluation and the scheme of the management of building enterprise development potential with accounting future possibilities and hidden resources of business entities are proposed

Task 2 Report - A GIS-Based Technical Potential Assessment of Domestic Energy Resources for Electricity Generation.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Nathan [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Grue, Nicholas W [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Rosenlieb, Evan [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2018-03-14

The purpose of this report is to support the Lao Ministry of Energy and Mines in assessing the technical potential of domestic energy resources for utility scale electricity generation in the Lao PDR. Specifically, this work provides assessments of technical potential, and associated maps of developable areas, for energy technologies of interest. This report details the methodology, assumptions, and datasets employed in this analysis to provide a transparent, replicable process for future analyses. The methodology and results presented are intended to be a fundamental input to subsequent decision making and energy planning-related analyses. This work concentrates on domestic energy resources for utility-scale electricity generation and considers solar photovoltaic, wind, biomass, and coal resources. This work does not consider potentially imported energy resources (e.g., natural gas) or domestic energy resources that are not present in sufficient quantity for utility-scale generation (e.g., geothermal resources). A technical potential assessment of hydropower resources is currently not feasible due to the absence of required data including site-level assessments of multiple characteristics (e.g., geology environment and access) as well as spatial data on estimated non-exploited hydropower resources. This report is the second output of the Energy Alternatives Study for the Lao PDR, a collaboration led by the Lao Ministry of Energy and Mines and the United States Agency for International Development under the auspices of the Smart Infrastructure for the Mekong program. The Energy Alternatives Study is composed of five successive tasks that collectively support the project's goals. This work is focused on Task 2 - Assess technical potential of domestic energy resources for electricity generation. The work was carried out by a team from the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in collaboration with the Lao Ministry of Energy

Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: comparative aspects and future perspectives.

Science.gov (United States)

Dorne, J L C M; Fink-Gremmels, J

2013-08-01

Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (Orion)

Science.gov (United States)

DeMott, Diana L.; Bigler, Mark A.

2017-01-01

NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. To determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators, and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the

Integrating future scenario‐based crop expansion and crop conditions to map switchgrass biofuel potential in eastern Nebraska, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.

2018-01-01

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) has been evaluated as one potential source for cellulosic biofuel feedstocks. Planting switchgrass in marginal croplands and waterway buffers can reduce soil erosion, improve water quality, and improve regional ecosystem services (i.e. it serves as a potential carbon sink). In previous studies, we mapped high risk marginal croplands and highly erodible cropland buffers that are potentially suitable for switchgrass development, which would improve ecosystem services and minimally impact food production. In this study, we advance our previous study results and integrate future crop expansion information to develop a switchgrass biofuel potential ensemble map for current and future croplands in eastern Nebraska. The switchgrass biomass productivity and carbon benefits (i.e. NEP: net ecosystem production) for the identified biofuel potential ensemble areas were quantified. The future scenario‐based (‘A1B’) land use and land cover map for 2050, the US Geological Survey crop type and Compound Topographic Index (CTI) maps, and long‐term (1981–2010) averaged annual precipitation data were used to identify future crop expansion regions that are suitable for switchgrass development. Results show that 2528 km2 of future crop expansion regions (~3.6% of the study area) are potentially suitable for switchgrass development. The total estimated biofuel potential ensemble area (including cropland buffers, marginal croplands, and future crop expansion regions) is 4232 km2 (~6% of the study area), potentially producing 3.52 million metric tons of switchgrass biomass per year. Converting biofuel ensemble regions to switchgrass leads to potential carbon sinks (the total NEP for biofuel potential areas is 0.45 million metric tons C) and is environmentally sustainable. Results from this study improve our understanding of environmental conditions and ecosystem services of current and future cropland systems in eastern Nebraska and provide

Increasing Potential Risk of a Global Aquatic Invader in Europe in Contrast to Other Continents under Future Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xuan; Guo, Zhongwei; Ke, Zunwei; Wang, Supen; Li, Yiming

2011-01-01

Background Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. Methodology/Principal Findings We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. Conclusions/Significance Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop

Risk assessment - The future trend

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marks, G.A.

1991-01-01

Many organizations today are faced with cleaning a site or facility, selecting appropriate remedial alternatives, or explaining the potential effects on human health and the environment caused by the releases of toxic compounds into the air, soil, and water, The use of risk assessment (RA) as a management tool is increasing because it offers an integrated approach to the analysis of toxicological, geological, physio-chemical, meteorological, statistical, and biological parameters that must be evaluated in the assessment of potential impacts to human health. The regulatory atmosphere in the 1990s is leaning toward the adoption of further laws requiring the completion of the RA process. Any industry involved in submitting permit applications to Air Quality Management Districts or complying with California's Proposition 65 and AB 2588 will be required to prepare RAs. Several guidance documents are available that support the RA process including the California Site Mitigation Decision Tree Manual published by the State Department of Health Services (DHS), which bases its approach on developing cleanup objectives (Applied Action Levels) on RA. This presentation focuses on the applications RA can have to the petroleum industry and the kinds of data that each case should develop to make maximum use of the RA process

Policy Research Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Impacts of Urban Expansion into Farmlands and Forests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael R. Guzy

2008-06-01

Full Text Available The expansion of urban land uses into farmlands and forests requires an assessment of future ecological impacts. Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies. When modeling complex adaptive systems, both the methods used to interpret results and the standards of rigor used to judge adequacy are complicated and require additional research. Recent studies suggest that it would be appropriate to use these models as an extension of exploratory analysis. This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about potential changes to the system. In this study, we develop understanding of the potential alternative futures for a social-ecological system by way of successive simulations that test variations in the types and numbers of policies. The model addresses the agricultural-urban interface and the preservation of ecosystem services. The landscape analyzed is at the junction of the McKenzie and Willamette Rivers adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield in Lane County, Oregon. Our exploration of alternative future scenarios suggests that policies that constrain urban growth and create incentives for farming and forest enterprises to preserve and enhance habitat can protect ecosystem resilience and services.

Potential impact of climate change to the future streamflow of Yellow River Basin based on CMIP5 data

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Xiaoli; Zheng, Weifei; Ren, Liliang; Zhang, Mengru; Wang, Yuqian; Liu, Yi; Yuan, Fei; Jiang, Shanhu

2018-02-01

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is the largest river basin in northern China, which has suffering water scarcity and drought hazard for many years. Therefore, assessments the potential impacts of climate change on the future streamflow in this basin is very important for local policy and planning on food security. In this study, based on the observations of 101 meteorological stations in YRB, equidistant CDF matching (EDCDFm) statistical downscaling approach was applied to eight climate models under two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model with 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution was developed based on downscaled fields for simulating streamflow in the future period over YRB. The results show that with the global warming trend, the annual streamflow will reduced about 10 % during the period of 2021-2050, compared to the base period of 1961-1990 in YRB. There should be suitable water resources planning to meet the demands of growing populations and future climate changing in this region.

Reducing the Potential for Future Financial Crises: A Framework for Macro-Prudential Policy in Canada

OpenAIRE

Paul Jenkins; Gordon Thiessen

2012-01-01

Canada needs a policy framework and new governance structure beyond what is in place to reduce the potential for future financial crises. The authors make the case for establishing a formal committee with a mandate to identify potential systemic risks and to act promptly before they materialize. While Canada's system of regulating and supervising financial institutions might hold up as a model of good performance, changes can and should be made, say Jenkins and Thiessen. Future crises undoubt...

Customer Satisfaction and Customer Loyalty as Predictors of Future Business Potential

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eskildsen, Jacob Kjær; Kristensen, Kai

2007-01-01

This paper analyzes the relationship between customer satisfaction, customer loyalty and the future business potential of existing customers. The data for the analysis comes from the Danish Customer Satisfaction Index 2006. Here a total of app. 2000 private customers evaluated their...

Current Animal Models of Postoperative Spine Infection and Potential Future Advances

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandra eStavrakis

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Implant related infection following spine surgery is a devastating complication for patients and can potentially lead to significant neurological compromise, disability, morbidity, and even mortality. This paper provides an overview of the existing animal models of postoperative spine infection and highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each model. In addition there is discussion regarding potential modifications to these animal models to better evaluate preventative and treatment strategies for this challenging complication. Current models are effective in simulating surgical procedures but fail to evaluate infection longitudinally using multiple techniques. Potential future modifications to these models include using advanced imaging technologies to evaluate infection, use of bioluminescent bacterial species, and testing of novel treatment strategies against multiple bacterial strains. There is potential to establish a postoperative spine infection model using smaller animals, such as mice, as these would be a more cost-effective screening tool for potential therapeutic interventions.

Advanced ceramic materials and their potential impact on the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laren, M.G.M.

1989-01-01

This article reviews the types of advanced ceramic materials that are being used today and their potential for even greater utilization in the future. Market analysis and projections have been developed from a number of sources both foreign and domestic are referenced and given in the text. Projection on the future use of advanced ceramics to the year 2000 indicate a potential growth of the total world market approaching 187 billion dollars. This paper describes advanced ceramic materials by their functionality, i.e. structural, electronic, chemical, thermal, biological, nuclear, etc. It also refers to specific engineering uses of advanced ceramics and include automotive ceramic materials with physical data for the most likely ceramic materials to be used for engine parts. This family of materials includes silicon carbides, silicon nitride, partially stabilized zirconia and alumina. Fiber reinforced ceramic composites are discussed with recognition of the research on fiber coating chemistry and the compatibility of the coating with the fiber and the matrix. Another class of advanced ceramics is toughened ceramics. The transformation toughened alumina is recognized as an example of this technology. The data indicate that electronic ceramic materials will always have the largest portion of the advanced ceramic market and the critical concepts of a wide range of uses is reviewed. (Auth.)

Projecting the range of potential future climate change as an aid in the assessment of the effectiveness of the Hanford Site Permanent Isolation Barrier

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Petersen, K.L.

1993-10-01

The Hanford Site Permanent Isolation Barrier Development Program was organized to develop an in-place disposal capability for low-level nuclear waste for the US Department of Energy at the Hanford Site in south-eastern Washington. Layered earthen and engineered barriers are being developed by Westinghouse Hanford Company and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory that will function in what is presently a semiarid environment (annual precipitation 150 mm) for at least 1,000 yr by limiting the infiltration of water through the waste. The Long-Term Climate Change Task is one of several key barrier tasks. Based on the recommendation of a panel of internationally recognized climate and modeling experts, climatic data for this task is being acquired in a step-wise and multi-disciplinary manner. The specific research strategy includes literature review and specialized studies to obtain pollen-derived climatic reconstruction, documented historic weather patterns, and Global Circulation Model output of potential future climate changes related to both the greenhouse effect and the cycling into the next ice age. The specific goals of the task are to: (1) obtain defensible probabilistic projections of the long-term climate variability in the Hanford Site region at many different time scales into the future, (2) develop several test case climate scenarios that bracket the range of potential future climate, and (3) use the climate scenarios both to test and to model protective barrier performance.

Development of Comparative Toxicity Potentials of TiO2 Nanoparticles for Use in Life Cycle Assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ettrup, Kim; Kounina, Anna; Hansen, Steffen Foss

2017-01-01

for TiO2 nanoparticles (TiO2-NP) for use in LCA. We adapted the USEtox 2.0 consensus model to integrate the SimpleBox4Nano fate model, and we populated the resulting model with TiO2-NP specific data. We thus calculated CTP values for TiO2 nanoparticles for air, water, and soil emission compartments...... in earlier studies. Assumptions, which were performed in those previous studies because of lack of data and knowledge at the time they were made, primarily explain such discrepancies. For future assessment of potential toxic impacts of TiO2 nanoparticles in LCA studies, we therefore recommend the use of our......Studies have shown that releases of nanoparticles may take place through the life cycle of products embedding nanomaterials, thus resulting in potential impacts on ecosystems and human health. While several life cycle assessment (LCA) studies have assessed such products, only a few of them have...

Beyond the Dirty Dozen: A Proposed Methodology for Assessing Future Bioweapon Threats.

Science.gov (United States)

Cieslak, Theodore J; Kortepeter, Mark G; Wojtyk, Ronald J; Jansen, Hugo-Jan; Reyes, Ricardo A; Smith, James O

2018-01-01

Defense policy planners and countermeasure developers are often faced with vexing problems involving the prioritization of resources and efforts. This is especially true in the area of Biodefense, where each new emerging infectious disease outbreak brings with it questions regarding the causative agent's potential for weaponization. Recent experience with West Nile Virus, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, Monkeypox, and H1N1 Influenza highlights this problem. Appropriately, in each of these cases, the possibility of bioterrorism was raised, although each outbreak ultimately proved to have a natural origin. In fact, determining whether an outbreak has an unnatural origin can be quite difficult. Thus, the questions remain: could the causative agents of these and other emerging infectious disease outbreaks pose a future weaponization threat? And how great is that threat? Should precious resources be diverted from other defense efforts in order to prepare for possible hostile employment of novel diseases by belligerents? Answering such critical questions requires some form of systematic threat assessment. Through extensive collaborative work conducted within NATO's Biomedical Advisory Council, we developed a scoring matrix for evaluating the weaponization potential of the causative agents of such diseases and attempted to validate our matrix by examining the reproducibility of data using known threat agents. Our matrix included 12 attributes of a potential weapon and was provided, along with detailed scoring instructions, to 12 groups of biodefense experts in 6 NATO nations. Study participants were asked to score each of these 12 attributes on a scale of 0-3: Infectivity, Infection-to-Disease Ratio (Reliability), Predictability (& Incubation Period), Morbidity & Mortality (Virulence), Ease of Large-Scale Production & Storage, Aerosol Stability, Atmospheric Stability, Ease of Dispersal, Communicability, Prophylactic Countermeasure Availability, Therapeutic

Canada's renewable energy resources: an assessment of potential

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Middleton, P; Argue, R; Argue, R; Burrell, T; Hathaway, G

1976-04-01

Rising costs of conventional, frontier, and nuclear energy production and the prospect of future shortages have prompted a resurgence of interest in alternative, renewable energy technologies. This study constitutes a preliminary step in determining which sources, technologies, and applications may be appropriate in Canada and when and under what conditions they might be technically and economically viable. Principal sources of renewable energy (solar radiation, wind, and biomass), as well as waves, thermal gradients and, sensible heat sources are reviewed to establish, in general terms, their significance in the Canadian context. Next, the technical characteristics, efficiency, costs, impacts, and state of the art of sixteen harnessing or conversion technologies are presented as an information base upon which to build an assessment of potential. A method of comparing the life cost of a renewable energy system to that of the likely conventional alternative is proposed and applied in cases where adequate technical and economic data are available. A variety of different economic assumptions are also outlined under which the renewable systems would be cost competitive. This costing methodology is applied in detail to four Case Studies: solar space and water heating--residential; photovoltaics--residential; wind generator--200 kW; and anaerobic digestion of livestock wastes. Finally, the potential for renewable energy approaches in Canada is explored and evaluated from three perspectives: technical viability, economic viability, and implementation.

Environmental assessment of current and future Swiss electricity supply options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bauer, Christian; Heck, Thomas; Hirschberg, Stefan; Dones, Roberto

2008-01-01

Options for near future electricity supply are currently one of the main topics in the Swiss energy policy debate. Contrary to the total energy demand per capita the trend of rising electricity demand per capita is still visible. This paper presents a comparative environmental assessment of a broad portfolio of current and future electricity generation technologies including nuclear, fossil, and renewable power plants with their associated energy chains. The evaluation, based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), is carried out quantifying ten different environmental indicators, grouped in the categories greenhouse gas emissions, consumption of resources, waste, and impact on ecosystems. Hydropower shows minimal environmental impacts for all indicators; for other systems, the picture is diverse. The comparison of non-aggregated indicators allows preliminary conclusions about the environmental performance of the assessed systems. Establishing ranking of technologies calls for aggregating the indicators, which can be done by weighting of the indicators based on individual or stakeholder group preferences, either within a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework or with Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methods. Calculating total costs of electricity by adding external costs due to impacts on human health and ecosystems to the electricity production costs poses another option for ranking of technologies. (authors)

The Future of Exposure Assessment: Perspectives from the ...

Science.gov (United States)

The British Occupational Hygiene Society, in collaboration with the Institute of Occupational Medicine, the University of Manchester, the UK Health and Safety Executive, and the University of Aberdeen hosted the 7th International Conference on the Science of Exposure Assessment (X2012) on 2 July–5 July 2012 in Edinburgh, UK. The conference ended with a special session at which invited speakers from government, industry, independent research institutes, and academia were asked to reflect on the conference and discuss what may now constitute the important highlights or drivers of future exposure assessment research. This article summarizes these discussions with respect to current and future technical and methodological developments. For the exposure science community to continue to have an impact in protecting public health, additional efforts need to be made to improve partnerships and cross-disciplinary collaborations, although it is equally important to ensure that the traditional occupational exposure themes are still covered as these issues are becoming increasingly important in the developing world. To facilitate this the ‘X’ conferences should continue to retain a holistic approach to occupational and non-occupational exposures and should actively pursue collaborations with other disciplines and professional organizations to increase the presence of consumer and environmental exposure scientists. The National Exposure Research Laboratory′s (NERL′

Analysis of Potential Future Climate and Climate Extremes in the Brazos Headwaters Basin, Texas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ripendra Awal

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Texas’ fast-growing economy and population, coupled with cycles of droughts due to climate change, are creating an insatiable demand for water and an increasing need to understand the potential impacts of future climates and climate extremes on the state’s water resources. The objective of this study was to determine potential future climates and climate extremes; and to assess spatial and temporal changes in precipitation (Prec, and minimum and maximum temperature (Tmin and Tmax, respectively, in the Brazos Headwaters Basin under three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1 for three future periods: 2020s (2011–2030, 2055s (2046–2065, and 2090s (2080–2099. Daily gridded climate data obtained from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR were used to downscale outputs from 15 General Circulation Models (GCMs using the Long Ashton Research Station–Weather Generator (LARS-WG model. Results indicate that basin average Tmin and Tmax will increase; however, annual precipitation will decrease for all periods. Annual precipitation will decrease by up to 5.2% and 6.8% in the 2055s and 2090s, respectively. However, in some locations in the basin, up to a 14% decrease in precipitation is projected in the 2090s under the A2 (high emissions scenario. Overall, the northwestern and southern part of the Brazos Headwaters Basin will experience greater decreases in precipitation. Moreover, precipitation indices of the number of wet days (prec ≥ 5 mm and heavy precipitation days (prec ≥ 10 mm are projected to slightly decrease for all future periods. On the other hand, Tmin and Tmax will increase by 2 and 3 °C on average in the 2055s and 2090s, respectively. Mostly, projected increases in Tmin and Tmax will be in the upper range in the southern and southeastern part of the basin. Temperature indices of frost (Tmin < 0 °C and ice days (Tmax < 0 °C are projected to decrease, while tropical nights (Tmin > 20 °C and summer days (Tmax

Fuel performance-experience to date and future potential

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Proebstle, R.A.; Klepfer, H.H.

1987-01-01

The experience in the USA to date, as reported in the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission data, conforms a very favorable cost trend for nuclear fuel costs relative to fossil fuel costs. The nuclear fuel cost promose relative to other fuels looks even better in future. Uranium supply surplus and advances in enrichment technology suggest that this trend should continue. Threats to the economic potential for nuclear fuel costs include unexpected problems in actural versus projected core and fuel technical performance. The New designs for BWR's nuclear fuel are extended to 38,000 MWd/MTU and the fuel rod reliabilities of 0.999994 are achievable. This reliability is equivalent to less than 3 fuel rod failures over the 40 year life of a reactor. (Liu)

Seeking potential contributions to future carbon budget in conterminous US forests considering disturbances

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Fangmin; Pan, Yude; Birdsey, Richard A.; Chen, Jing M.; Dugan, Alexa

2017-11-01

Currently, US forests constitute a large carbon sink, comprising about 9 % of the global terrestrial carbon sink. Wildfire is the most significant disturbance influencing carbon dynamics in US forests. Our objective is to estimate impacts of climate change, CO2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition on the future net biome productivity (NBP) of US forests until the end of twenty-first century under a range of disturbance conditions. We designate three forest disturbance scenarios under one future climate scenario to evaluate factor impacts for the future period (2011-2100): (1) no wildfires occur but forests continue to age (Saging), (2) no wildfires occur and forest ages are fixed in 2010 (Sfixed_nodis), and (3) wildfires occur according to a historical pattern, consequently changing forest age (Sdis_age_change). Results indicate that US forests remain a large carbon sink in the late twenty-first century under the Sfixed_nodis scenario; however, they become a carbon source under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios. During the period of 2011 to 2100, climate is projected to have a small direct effect on NBP, while atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition have large positive effects on NBP regardless of the future climate and disturbance scenarios. Meanwhile, responses to past disturbances under the Sfixed_nodis scenario increase NBP regardless of the future climate scenarios. Although disturbance effects on NBP under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios decrease with time, both scenarios experience an increase in NBP prior to the 2050s and then a decrease in NBP until the end of the twenty-first century. This study indicates that there is potential to increase or at least maintain the carbon sink of conterminous US forests at the current level if future wildfires are reduced and age structures are maintained at a productive mix. The effects of CO2 on the future carbon sink may overwhelm effects of other factors at the end of the twenty

Executive summary: Radar imagery interpretation to assess the hydrocarbon potential of four sites in the Phillipines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1988-11-17

The Republic of the Philippines is intensely interested in the identification, development, and conservation of natural resources. In keeping with this, the Government of the Philippines has recently completed a nationwide sedimentary basin evaluation program to assess hydrocarbon potential and assist in future exploration activities. This program of collection and interpretation of the radar imagery was designed to augment and complement the existing data base. The primary objective of the project was to further the goals of international energy development by aiding the Republic of the Philippines in the assessment of potential petroleum and geothermal prospects within the areas imaged. Secondary goals were to assist the Republic of the Philippines in utilizing state-of-the-art radar remote sensing technology for resource exploration, and to train key Philippines scientists in the use of imaging radar data. 9 refs., 9 figs., 3 tabs.

Topological insulators/superconductors: Potential future electronic materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hor, Y. S.

2014-01-01

A new material called topological insulator has been discovered and becomes one of the fastest growing field in condensed matter physics. Topological insulator is a new quantum phase of matter which has Dirac-like conductivity on its surface, but bulk insulator through its interior. It is considered a challenging problem for the surface transport measurements because of dominant internal conductance due to imperfections of the existing crystals of topological insulators. By a proper method, the internal bulk conduction can be suppressed in a topological insulator, and permit the detection of the surface currents which is necessary for future fault-tolerant quantum computing applications. Doped topological insulators have depicted a large variety of bulk physical properties ranging from magnetic to superconducting behaviors. By chemical doping, a TI can change into a bulk superconductor. Nb x Bi 2 Se 3 is shown to be a superconductor with T c ∼ 3.2 K, which could be a potential candidate for a topological superconductor

An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mercure, Jean-François; Salas, Pablo

2012-01-01

This paper presents an assessment of global economic energy potentials for all major natural energy resources. This work is based on both an extensive literature review and calculations using natural resource assessment data. Economic potentials are presented in the form of cost-supply curves, in terms of energy flows for renewable energy sources, or fixed amounts for fossil and nuclear resources, with strong emphasis on uncertainty, using a consistent methodology that allow direct comparisons to be made. In order to interpolate through available resource assessment data and associated uncertainty, a theoretical framework and a computational methodology are given based on statistical properties of different types of resources, justified empirically by the data, and used throughout. This work aims to provide a global database for natural energy resources ready to integrate into models of energy systems, enabling to introduce at the same time uncertainty over natural resource assessments. The supplementary material provides theoretical details and tables of data and parameters that enable this extensive database to be adapted to a variety of energy systems modelling frameworks. -- Highlights: ► Global energy potentials for all major energy resources are reported. ► Theory and methodology for calculating economic energy potentials is given. ► An uncertainty analysis for all energy economic potentials is carried out.

Assessing offshore wind potential

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adelaja, Adesoji; McKeown, Charles; Calnin, Benjamin; Hailu, Yohannes

2012-01-01

Quantifying wind potential is a pivotal initial step in developing and articulating a state’s policies and strategies for offshore wind industry development. This is particularly important in the Great Lakes States where lessons from other offshore environments are not directly applicable. This paper presents the framework developed for conducting a preliminary assessment of offshore wind potential. Information on lake bathymetry and wind resources were combined in simulating alternative scenarios of technically feasible turbine construction depths and distance concerns by stakeholders. These yielded estimates of developable offshore wind areas and potential power generation. While concerns about the visibility of turbines from shore reduce the power that can be generated, engineering solutions that increase the depths at which turbines can be sited increase such potential power output. This paper discusses the costs associated with technical limitations on depth and the social costs related to public sentiments about distance from the shoreline, as well as the possible tradeoffs. The results point to a very large untapped energy resource in the Michigan’s Great Lakes, large enough to prompt policy action from the state government. - Highlights: ▶ We build a theoretical framework for modeling offshore wind power production. ▶ Illustration of the impact of technology and social limitations on offshore wind energy development. ▶ Geospatial modeling of the offshore wind potential of the Great Lakes.

Assessing potential future environmental legal events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tonn, B. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Petrich, C. [The Ernst and Yound Center for Business Innovation, Cambridge, MA (United States)

1997-10-28

This report addresses the topic of environmental citizenship in the United States. The term refers to responsibilities each of us have with respect to helping our communities and nation make sound environmental decisions. This research centers on the citizens and what we ought to be doing, as opposed to what the government ought to be doing for us, to improve environmental citizenship. This report examines four central questions: What are the requirements (i.e., responsibilities) of citizenship vis-a-vis environmental decision- making processes; what constraints limit people`s ability to meet these requirements; what does our form of governance do to help or hinder in meeting these requirements; and what recommendations can be put forth to improve public participation in environmental decision making?

Imagining flood futures: risk assessment and management in practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Lane, Stuart N; Landström, Catharina; Whatmore, Sarah J

2011-05-13

The mantra that policy and management should be 'evidence-based' is well established. Less so are the implications that follow from 'evidence' being predictions of the future (forecasts, scenarios, horizons) even though such futures define the actions taken today to make the future sustainable. Here, we consider the tension between 'evidence', reliable because it is observed, and predictions of the future, unobservable in conventional terms. For flood risk management in England and Wales, we show that futures are actively constituted, and so imagined, through 'suites of practices' entwining policy, management and scientific analysis. Management has to constrain analysis because of the many ways in which flood futures can be constructed, but also because of commitment to an accounting calculus, which requires risk to be expressed in monetary terms. It is grounded in numerical simulation, undertaken by scientific consultants who follow policy/management guidelines that define the futures to be considered. Historical evidence is needed to deal with process and parameter uncertainties and the futures imagined are tied to pasts experienced. Reliance on past events is a challenge for prediction, given changing probability (e.g. climate change) and consequence (e.g. development on floodplains). So, risk management allows some elements of risk analysis to become unstable (notably in relation to climate change) but forces others to remain stable (e.g. invoking regulation to prevent inappropriate floodplain development). We conclude that the assumed separation of risk assessment and management is false because the risk calculation has to be defined by management. Making this process accountable requires openness about the procedures that make flood risk analysis more (or less) reliable to those we entrust to produce and act upon them such that, unlike the 'pseudosciences', they can be put to the test of public interrogation by those who have to live with their consequences

Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion.

Science.gov (United States)

Mauser, Wolfram; Klepper, Gernot; Zabel, Florian; Delzeit, Ruth; Hank, Tobias; Putzenlechner, Birgitta; Calzadilla, Alvaro

2015-11-12

Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today's cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers' profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification.

Assessment of triton potential energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Friar, J.L.; Payne, G.L.

1995-01-01

An assessment is made of the dominant features contributing to the triton potential energy, with the objective of understanding qualitatively their origins and sensitivities. Relativistic effects, short-range repulsion, and OPEP dominance are discussed. A determination of the importance of various regions of nucleon-nucleon separation is made numerically. (author)

Technical Assessments of Future European Space Transportation Options

OpenAIRE

Sippel, Martin; van Foreest, Arnold; Dutheil, Jean-Philippe; Philip, Peter

2007-01-01

The paper describes some of the most recent activities in Germany in the technical assessment of future European launcher architecture. In focus is a joint effort of DLR-SART with German launcher industry in the definition of a next generation upper-medium class expendable TSTO with an initial operational capability after 2020. Involved companies are EADS astrium and MT Aerospace. This DLR-agency funded study WOTAN investigates fully cryogenic launchers as well as those with a com...

Invader Relative Impact Potential: a new metric to understand and predict the ecological impacts of existing, emerging and future invasive alien species

OpenAIRE

Dick, JTA; Laverty, C; Lennon, JJ; Barrios-O'Neill, D; Mensink, PJ; Britton, JR; Medoc, V; Boets, P; Alexander, ME; Taylor, NG; Dunn, AM; Hatcher, MJ; Rosewarne, PJ; Crookes, S; MacIsaac, HJ

2017-01-01

1. Predictions of the identities and ecological impacts of invasive alien species are critical for risk assessment, but presently we lack universal and standardized metrics that reliably predict the likelihood and degree of impact of such invaders (i.e. measurable changes in populations of affected species). This need is especially pressing for emerging and potential future invaders that have no invasion history. Such a metric would also ideally apply across diverse taxonomic and trophic gro...

Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

2015-01-01

Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

The Future Potential of Internet of Things

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aelita Skaržauskienė

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Purpose: To define the Internet of things and to analyze it as a background for the internet of services.Design/methodology/approach: The article discusses potential possibilities and problematic issues concerning the Internet of things (IoT and Internet of services (IoS. The debates concerning IoT and its possible application fields have continued for more than ten years. The technological background is there and the fields of application are broad. However, there is still a lack of understanding about the possible benefits that technology could give to various bodies if applied correctly. This article is based on comparison and analysis of scientific articles, research papers and case studies related to the potential for IoT and its implementation in IoS.Theoretical findings: IoT is a logical evolutionary step for the internet. Despite the technological background, the concept of objects which are aware of their surroundings, allow to manipulate them by defining different rule patterns and ensuring interaction possibilities with other objects or human beings. The necessity for web-based services is increasing along with the technological gadgets which support them. Applying things, which are connected in a network, could revolutionize many industry and service sectors and create new service provision and administration methods based on information technology. However, there are many problematic issues and research challenges related to the IoT. Few of the most significant are related to standardization of technology, legal regulation and ethical aspects concerning the IoT technology.Research limitations/implications: The IoT is a popular trend promoted by the business sector and governmental bodies. There are few comprehensive studies and projects which talk about the benefits that business and society could gain from the IoT. There is a lot less information about the possible risk and problematic aspects, and a lack of agreements between the

Managing employer brand attributes to attract potential future leaders

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bonaiuto, Marino; De Dominicis, Stefano; Illia, Laura

2013-01-01

for attracting talented people. Using three empirical studies, we identify brand attributes that have not been very widely diffused among real companies (versus ideal) but are relevant for attracting young professionals with the potential to become leaders. We also identify which brand attributes already present...... among real employees allow for attracting talented individuals versus the non-talented ones. The three studies are conducted with a sample of 493, 729 and 1605 recent graduates from Italian universities, respectively. The results indicate that the most idealized brand attributes are related...... are discussed with reference to how they contribute to our understanding of EB, brand management and the attraction of future leaders....

Harmonization of future needs for dermal exposure assessment and modeling : a workshop report

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marquart, H.; Maidment, S.; Mcclaflin, J.L.; Fehrenbacher, M.C.

2001-01-01

Dermal exposure assessment and modeling is still in early phases of development. This article presents the results of a workshop organized to harmonize the future needs in this field. Methods for dermal exposure assessment either assess the mass of contaminant that is transferred to the skin, or the

Canada's renewable energy resources. An assessment of potential

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Middleton, P; Argue, R; Burrell, T; Hathaway, G

1976-04-01

Rising costs of conventional, frontier and nuclear energy production and the prospect of future shortages have prompted a resurgence of interest in alternative, renewable energy technologies. This study constituted a preliminary step in determining which sources, technologies and applications may be appropriate in Canada, and when and under what conditions they might be technically and economically viable. Principal sources of renewable energy (solar radiation, wind and biomass), as well as waves, thermal gradients and sensible heat sources are reviewed to establish, in general terms, their significance in the Canadian context. Next, the technical characteristics, efficiency, costs, impacts and state-of-the-art of sixteen harnessing or conversion technologies are presented as an information base upon which to build an assessment of potential. A method of comparing the life cost of a renewable energy system to that of the likely conventional alternative is proposed and applied in cases where adequate technical and economic data are available. A variety of different economic assumptions are also outlined under which the renewable systems would be cost competitive. This costing methodology is applied in detail to four case studies: residential solar space and water heating, photovoltaics, residential, a 200 kW wind generator, and anaerobic digestion of livestock wastes. Finally, the potential for renewable energy approaches in Canada is explored and evaluated from three perspectives: technical viability, economic viability and implementation. 319 refs., 18 figs., 94 tabs.

NASA advanced space photovoltaic technology-status, potential and future mission applications

Science.gov (United States)

Flood, Dennis J.; Piszczor, Michael, Jr.; Stella, Paul M.; Bennett, Gary L.

1989-01-01

The NASA program in space photovoltaic research and development encompasses a wide range of emerging options for future space power systems, and includes both cell and array technology development. The long range goals are to develop technology capable of achieving 300 W/kg for planar arrays, and 300 W/sq m for concentrator arrays. InP and GaAs planar and concentrator cell technologies are under investigation for their potential high efficiency and good radiation resistance. The Advanced Photovoltaic Solar Array (APSA) program is a near term effort aimed at demonstrating 130 W/kg beginning of life specific power using thin (62 micrometer) silicon cells. It is intended to be technology transparent to future high efficiency cells and provides the baseline for development of the 300 W/kg array.

Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Regional Air Quality and Public Health over China

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, C.; Zhang, Q.; Zhang, Y.; He, K.

2017-12-01

Future climate change would affect public health through changing air quality. Climate extremes and poor weather conditions are likely to occur at a higher frequency in China under a changing climate, but the air pollution-related health impacts due to future climate change remain unclear. Here the potential impacts of future climate change on regional air quality and public health over China is projected using a coupling of climate, air quality and epidemiological models. We present the first assessment of China's future air quality in a changing climate under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario using the dynamical downscaling technique. In RCP4.5 scenario, we estimate that climate change from 2006-2010 to 2046-2050 is likely to adversely affect air quality covering more than 86% of population and 55% of land area in China, causing an average increase of 3% in O3 and PM2.5 concentrations, which are found to be associated with the warmer climate and the more stable atmosphere. Our estimate of air pollution-related mortality due to climate change in 2050 is 26,000 people per year in China. Of which, the PM2.5-related mortality is 18,700 people per year, and the O3-related mortality is 7,300 people per year. The climate-induced air pollution and health impacts vary spatially. The climate impacts are even more pronounced on the urban areas where is densely populated and polluted. 90% of the health loss is concentrated in 20% of land areas in China. We use a simple statistical analysis method to quantify the contributions of climate extremes and find more intense climate extremes play an important role in climate-induced air pollution-related health impacts. Our results indicate that global climate change will likely alter the level of pollutant management required to meet future air quality targets as well as the efforts to protect public health in China.

Episodic memory and future thinking during early childhood: Linking the past and future.

Science.gov (United States)

Cuevas, Kimberly; Rajan, Vinaya; Morasch, Katherine C; Bell, Martha Ann

2015-07-01

Despite extensive examination of episodic memory and future thinking development, little is known about the concurrent emergence of these capacities during early childhood. In Experiment 1, 3-year-olds participated in an episodic memory hiding task ("what, when, where" [WWW] components) with an episodic future thinking component. In Experiment 2, a group of 4-year-olds (including children from Experiment 1) participated in the same task (different objects and locations), providing the first longitudinal investigation of episodic memory and future thinking. Although children exhibited age-related improvements in recall, recognition, and binding of the WWW episodic memory components, there were no age-related changes in episodic future thinking. At both ages, WWW episodic memory performance was higher than future thinking performance, and episodic future thinking and WWW memory components were unrelated. These findings suggest that the WWW components of episodic memory are potentially less fragile than the future components when assessed in a cognitively demanding task. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Future Potential of Hybrid and Diesel Powertrains in the U.S. Light-duty Vehicle Market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Greene, D.L.

2004-08-23

Diesel and hybrid technologies each have the potential to increase light-duty vehicle fuel economy by a third or more without loss of performance, yet these technologies have typically been excluded from technical assessments of fuel economy potential on the grounds that hybrids are too expensive and diesels cannot meet Tier 2 emissions standards. Recently, hybrid costs have come down and the few hybrid makes available are selling well. Diesels have made great strides in reducing particulate and nitrogen oxide emissions, and are likely though not certain to meet future standards. In light of these developments, this study takes a detailed look at the market potential of these two powertrain technologies and their possible impacts on light-duty vehicle fuel economy. A nested multinomial logit model of vehicle choice was calibrated to 2002 model year sales of 930 makes, models and engine-transmission configurations. Based on an assessment of the status and outlook for the two technologies, market shares were predicted for 2008, 2012 and beyond, assuming no additional increase in fuel economy standards or other new policy initiatives. Current tax incentives for hybrids are assumed to be phased out by 2008. Given announced and likely introductions by 2008, hybrids could capture 4-7% and diesels 2-4% of the light-duty market. Based on our best guesses for further introductions, these shares could increase to 10-15% for hybrids and 4-7% for diesels by 2012. The resulting impacts on fleet average fuel economy would be about +2% in 2008 and +4% in 2012. If diesels and hybrids were widely available across vehicle classes, makes, and models, they could capture 40% or more of the light-duty vehicle market.

The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study—Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions

Science.gov (United States)

Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M.; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B.; Edwards, Stephen W.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S.; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M.; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J.; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J.; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A.; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Thomas, Russell S.; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R.; Vandenberg, John J.; Villeneuve, Daniel L.; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S.

2016-01-01

Background: The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Objective: Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. Methods: New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose–response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. Discussion: NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure–response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. Conclusions: While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I

Assessing the impact of future climate change on groundwater recharge in Galicia-Costa, Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Raposo, Juan Ramón; Dafonte, Jorge; Molinero, Jorge

2013-03-01

Climate change can impact the hydrological processes of a watershed and may result in problems with future water supply for large sections of the population. Results from the FP5 PRUDENCE project suggest significant changes in temperature and precipitation over Europe. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in the hydrological district of Galicia-Costa, Spain. Climate projections from two general circulation models and eight different regional climate models were used for the assessment and two climate-change scenarios were evaluated. Calibration and validation of the model were performed using a daily time-step in four representative catchments in the district. The effects on modeled mean annual groundwater recharge are small, partly due to the greater stomatal efficiency of plants in response to increased CO2 concentration. However, climate change strongly influences the temporal variability of modeled groundwater recharge. Recharge may concentrate in the winter season and dramatically decrease in the summer-autumn season. As a result, the dry-season duration may be increased on average by almost 30 % for the A2 emission scenario, exacerbating the current problems in water supply.

Potential Risks of Ecological Momentary Assessment Among Persons Who Inject Drugs.

Science.gov (United States)

Roth, Alexis M; Rossi, John; Goldshear, Jesse L; Truong, Quan; Armenta, Richard F; Lankenau, Stephen E; Garfein, Richard S; Simmons, Janie

2017-06-07

Ecological momentary assessment (EMA)-which often involves brief surveys delivered via mobile technology-has transformed our understanding of the individual and contextual micro-processes associated with legal and illicit drug use. However, little empirical research has focused on participant's perspective on the probability and magnitude of potential risks in EMA studies. To garner participant perspectives on potential risks common to EMA studies of illicit drug use. We interviewed 38 persons who inject drugs living in San Diego (CA) and Philadelphia (PA), United States. They completed simulations of an EMA tool and then underwent a semi-structured interview that systematically explored domains of risk considered within the proposed revisions to the Federal Policy for the Protection of Human Subjects or the "Common Rule." Interviews were transcribed verbatim and coded systematically to explore psychological, physical, social, legal, and informational risks from participation. Participants perceived most risks to be minimal. Some indicated that repetitive questioning about mood or drug use could cause psychological (i.e., anxiety) or behavioral risks (i.e., drug use relapse). Ironically, the questions that were viewed as risky were considered motivational to engage in healthy behaviors. The most cited risks were legal and social risks stemming from participant concerns about data collection and security. Improving our understanding of these issues is an essential first step to protect human participants in future EMA research. We provide a brief set of recommendations that can aid in the design and ethics review of the future EMA protocol with substance using populations.

Regional Landslide Hazard Assessment Considering Potential Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Almeida, S.; Holcombe, E.; Pianosi, F.; Wagener, T.

2016-12-01

Landslides have many negative economic and societal impacts, including the potential for significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. These risks are likely to be exacerbated in the future by a combination of climatic and socio-economic factors. Climate change, for example, is expected to increase the occurrence of rainfall-triggered landslides, because a warmer atmosphere tends to produce more high intensity rainfall events. Prediction of future changes in rainfall, however, is subject to high levels of uncertainty, making it challenging for decision-makers to identify the areas and populations that are most vulnerable to landslide hazards. In this study, we demonstrate how a physically-based model - the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model (CHASM) - can be used together with Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to explore the underlying factors controlling the spatial distribution of landslide risks across a regional landscape, while also accounting for deep uncertainty around potential future rainfall triggers. We demonstrate how GSA can be used to analyse CHASM which in turn represents the spatial variability of hillslope characteristics in the study region, while accounting for other uncertainties. Results are presented in the form of landslide hazard maps, utilising high-resolution digital elevation datasets for a case study in St Lucia in the Caribbean. Our findings about spatial landslide hazard drivers have important implications for data collection approaches and for long-term decision-making about land management practices.

Future of nuclear science

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1977-01-01

A report is presented by the Ad Hoc Panel on the Future of Nuclear Science on its assessment of the scientific objectives and unexplored questions of nuclear science and recommendations of the manpower, funding, and facilities required to realize its full potential. Nuclear research and its facilities and budgetary, sociological, and application aspects of this research are considered

Considering Future Potential Regarding Structural Diversity in Selection of Forest Reserves.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Johanna Lundström

Full Text Available A rich structural diversity in forests promotes biodiversity. Forests are dynamic and therefore it is crucial to consider future structural potential when selecting reserves, to make robust conservation decisions. We analyzed forests in boreal Sweden based on 17,599 National Forest Inventory (NFI plots with the main aim to understand how effectiveness of reserves depends on the time dimension in the selection process, specifically by considering future structural diversity. In the study both the economic value and future values of 15 structural variables were simulated during a 100 year period. To get a net present structural value (NPSV, a single value covering both current and future values, we used four discounting alternatives: (1 only considering present values, (2 giving equal importance to values in each of the 100 years within the planning horizon, (3 applying an annual discount rate considering the risk that values could be lost, and (4 only considering the values in year 100. The four alternatives were evaluated in a reserve selection model under budget-constrained and area-constrained selections. When selecting young forests higher structural richness could be reached at a quarter of the cost over almost twice the area in a budget-constrained selection compared to an area-constrained selection. Our results point to the importance of considering future structural diversity in the selection of forest reserves and not as is done currently to base the selection on existing values. Targeting future values increases structural diversity and implies a relatively lower cost. Further, our results show that a re-orientation from old to young forests would imply savings while offering a more extensive reserve network with high structural qualities in the future. However, caution must be raised against a drastic reorientation of the current old-forest strategy since remnants of ancient forests will need to be prioritized due to their role for

Performance assessment for future low-level waste disposal facilities at ORNL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, D.W.; Kocher, D.C.

1989-01-01

This paper discusses the strategy for waste management on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) and the approach to preparing future performance assessments that has evolved from previous performance assessment studies of low-level radioactive waste disposal on the ORR. The strategy for waste management is based on the concept that waste classification should be determined by performance assessment other than the sources of waste. This dose-based strategy for waste classification and management places special importance on the preparation and interpretation of waste disposal performance assessments for selecting appropriate disposal technologies and developing waste acceptance criteria. Additionally, the challenges to be overcome in the preparation of performance assessments are discussed. 7 refs

An assessment of tidal energy potential. The Lima estuary

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Trigo-Teixeira, A. [Department of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Lisbon Technical University, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal); Rebordao, I. [WW Consulting Engineers, Laveiras, Caxias 2760-032 (Portugal)

2009-07-01

A hydrodynamic model was set up for the Lima estuary (Portugal) and a preliminary assessment of the strength of tidal currents to produce tidal energy was made. To calibrate the model results were compared with measured data, and the model tuned to reproduce water levels and currents in several locations within the estuary. The data was acquired with ADCPs, during a field campaign that was planed to cover a spring-neap tide cycle, in October 2006. The Advanced Circulation Model - ADCIRC was forced with the most important harmonic constituents present in the ocean tide signal. Upstream, in the river boundary, the discharge was taken from hydrographs. The wetting and drying tool was also applied and a detailed bathymetry was considered, since there are areas in the domain where salt marshes occur, drying out at low tide. The tidal currents potential were assessed for a scenario of tidal forcing only, without any river discharge. The lower estuary is occupied by the port infrastructure and navigation channels which conflicts with any kind of equipment installation. Values of the currents and water depths given by the model indicate that some places in the main channel of the middle estuary, might be interesting to install micro turbines in the future, depending on the evolution of the requirements of this technology.

Atlantic hurricanes and associated insurance loss potentials in future climate scenarios: limitations of high-resolution AGCM simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas F. Stocker

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC characteristics are among the more serious regional threats of global climate change. Therefore, a better understanding of how anthropogenic climate change may affect TCs and how these changes translate in socio-economic impacts is required. Here, we apply a TC detection and tracking method that was developed for ERA-40 data to time-slice experiments of two atmospheric general circulation models, namely the fifth version of the European Centre model of Hamburg model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany, T213 and the Japan Meteorological Agency/ Meteorological research Institute model (MRI, Tsukuba city, Japan, TL959. For each model, two climate simulations are available: a control simulation for present-day conditions to evaluate the model against observations, and a scenario simulation to assess future changes. The evaluation of the control simulations shows that the number of intense storms is underestimated due to the model resolution. To overcome this deficiency, simulated cyclone intensities are scaled to the best track data leading to a better representation of the TC intensities. Both models project an increased number of major hurricanes and modified trajectories in their scenario simulations. These changes have an effect on the projected loss potentials. However, these state-of-the-art models still yield contradicting results, and therefore they are not yet suitable to provide robust estimates of losses due to uncertainties in simulated hurricane intensity, location and frequency.

Assessing consumer responses to potential reduced-exposure tobacco products: a review of tobacco industry and independent research methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Rees, Vaughan W; Kreslake, Jennifer M; Cummings, K Michael; O'Connor, Richard J; Hatsukami, Dorothy K; Parascandola, Mark; Shields, Peter G; Connolly, Gregory N

2009-12-01

Internal tobacco industry documents and the mainstream literature are reviewed to identify methods and measures for evaluating tobacco consumer response. The review aims to outline areas in which established methods exist, identify gaps in current methods for assessing consumer response, and consider how these methods might be applied to evaluate potentially reduced exposure tobacco products and new products. Internal industry research reviewed included published articles, manuscript drafts, presentations, protocols, and instruments relating to consumer response measures were identified and analyzed. Peer-reviewed research was identified using PubMed and Scopus. Industry research on consumer response focuses on product development and marketing. To develop and refine new products, the tobacco industry has developed notable strategies for assessing consumers' sensory and subjective responses to product design characteristics. Independent research is often conducted to gauge the likelihood of future product adoption by measuring consumers' risk perceptions, responses to product, and product acceptability. A model that conceptualizes consumer response as comprising the separate, but interacting, domains of product perceptions and response to product is outlined. Industry and independent research supports the dual domain model and provides a wide range of methods for assessment of the construct components of consumer response. Further research is needed to validate consumer response constructs, determine the relationship between consumer response and tobacco user behavior, and improve reliability of consumer response measures. Scientifically rigorous consumer response assessment methods will provide a needed empirical basis for future regulation of potentially reduced-exposure tobacco products and new products, to counteract tobacco industry influence on consumers, and enhance the public health.

Low-Carbon Natural Gas for Transportation: Well-to-Wheels Emissions and Potential Market Assessment in California

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Penev, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Melaina, Marc [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bush, Brian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Muratori, Matteo [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Warner, Ethan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Chen, Yuche [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2016-12-01

This report improves on the understanding of the long-term technology potential of low-carbon natural gas (LCNG) supply pathways by exploring transportation market adoption potential through 2035 in California. Techno-economic assessments of each pathway are developed to compare the capacity, cost, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of select LCNG production pathways. The study analyzes the use of fuel from these pathways in light-, medium-, and heavy-duty vehicle applications. Economic and life-cycle GHG emissions analysis suggest that landfill gas resources are an attractive and relatively abundant resource in terms of cost and GHG reduction potential, followed by waste water treatment plants and biomass with gasification and methanation. Total LCNG production potential is on the order of total natural gas demand anticipated in a success scenario for future natural gas vehicle adoption by 2035 across light-, medium-, and heavy-duty vehicle markets (110 trillion Btu/year).

Assessment of risk of potential exposures on facilities industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leocadio, Joao Carlos

2007-03-01

This work develops a model to evaluate potential exposures on open facilities of industrial radiography in Brazil. This model will decisively contribute to optimize operational, radiological protection and safety procedures, to prevent radiation accidents and to reduce human errors in industrial radiography. The probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology was very useful to assess potential exposures. The open facilities of industrial radiography were identified as the scenario to be analyzed in what concerns the evaluation of potential exposures, due to their high accidents indices. The results of the assessment of potential exposures confirm that the industrial radiography in Brazil is a high-risk practice as classified by the IAEA. The risk of potential exposure was estimated to be 40,5 x 10 -2 per year in Brazil, having as main consequences injuries to the workers' hands and arms. In the world scene, the consequences are worst, leading to fatalities of people, thus emphasizing the high risk of industrial radiography. (author)

Assessing the role of internal climate variability in Antarctica's contribution to future sea-level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) has the potential to be a major contributor to future sea-level rise (SLR). Current projections of SLR due to AIS mass loss remain highly uncertain. Better understanding of how ice sheets respond to future climate forcing and variability is essential for assessing the long-term risk of SLR. However, the predictability of future climate is limited by uncertainties from emission scenarios, model structural differences, and the internal variability that is inherently generated within the fully coupled climate system. Among those uncertainties, the impact of internal variability on the AIS changes has not been explicitly assessed. In this study, we quantify the effect of internal variability on the AIS evolutions by using climate fields from two large-ensemble experiments using the Community Earth System Model to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. We find that internal variability of climate fields, particularly atmospheric fields, among ensemble members leads to significantly different AIS responses. Our results show that the internal variability can cause about 80 mm differences of AIS contribution to SLR by 2100 compared to the ensemble-mean contribution of 380-450 mm. Moreover, using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in the ice sheet model does not produce realistic simulations of the ice loss. Instead, it significantly delays the onset of retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet for up to 20 years and significantly underestimates the AIS contribution to SLR by 0.07-0.11 m in 2100 and up to 0.34 m in the 2250's. Therefore, because the uncertainty caused by internal variability is irreducible, we seek to highlight a critical need to assess the role of internal variability in projecting the AIS loss over the next few centuries. By quantifying the impact of internal variability on AIS contribution to SLR, policy makers can obtain more robust estimates of SLR and implement suitable adaptation strategies.

Towards an Immunophenotype of Schizophrenia: Progress, Potential Mechanisms, and Future Directions

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Brian J; Goldsmith, David R

2017-01-01

The evidence to date, coupled with advances in immunology and genetics has afforded the field an unparalleled opportunity to investigate the hypothesis that a subset of patients with schizophrenia may manifest an immunophenotype, toward new potential diagnostics and therapeutics to reduce risk, alleviate symptoms, and improve quality of life in both at-risk populations and patients with established schizophrenia. In this paper, we will first summarize the findings on immune dysfunction in schizophrenia, including (1) genetic, prenatal, and premorbid immune risk factors and (2) immune markers across the clinical course of the disorder, including cytokines; C-reactive protein; immune cells; antibodies, autoantibodies and comorbid autoimmune disorders; complement; oxidative stress; imaging of neuroinflammation; infections; and clinical trials of anti-inflammatory agents and immunotherapy. We will then discuss a potential mechanistic framework toward increased understanding of a potential schizophrenia immunophenotype. We will then critically appraise the existing literature, and discuss suggestions for the future research agenda in this area that are needed to rigorously evaluate this hypothesis. PMID:27654215

The potential distribution of bioenergy crops in Europe under present and future climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tuck, Gill; Glendining, Margaret J.; Smith, Pete; Wattenbach, Martin; House, Jo I.

2006-01-01

We have derived maps of the potential distribution of 26 promising bioenergy crops in Europe, based on simple rules for suitable climatic conditions and elevation. Crops suitable for temperate and Mediterranean climates were selected from four groups: oilseeds (e.g. oilseed rape, sunflower), starch crops (e.g. potatoes), cereals (e.g. barley) and solid biofuel crops (e.g. sorghum, Miscanthus). The impact of climate change under different scenarios and GCMs on the potential future distribution of these crops was determined, based on predicted future climatic conditions. Climate scenarios based on four IPCC SRES emission scenarios, A1FI, A2, B1 and B2, implemented by four global climate models, HadCM3, CSIRO2, PCM and CGCM2, were used. The potential distribution of temperate oilseeds, cereals, starch crops and solid biofuels is predicted to increase in northern Europe by the 2080s, due to increasing temperatures, and decrease in southern Europe (e.g. Spain, Portugal, southern France, Italy, and Greece) due to increased drought. Mediterranean oil and solid biofuel crops, currently restricted to southern Europe, are predicted to extend further north due to higher summer temperatures. Effects become more pronounced with time and are greatest under the A1FI scenario and for models predicting the greatest climate forcing. Different climate models produce different regional patterns. All models predict that bioenergy crop production in Spain is especially vulnerable to climate change, with many temperate crops predicted to decline dramatically by the 2080s. The choice of bioenergy crops in southern Europe will be severely reduced in future unless measures are taken to adapt to climate change. (author)

Comprehensive Care Plan Development Using Resident Assessment Instrument Framework: Past, Present, and Future Practices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mary Ellen Dellefield

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Development of the comprehensive care plan (CCP is a requirement for nursing homes participating in the federal Medicare and Medicaid programs, referred to as skilled nursing facilities. The plan must be developed within the context of the comprehensive interdisciplinary assessment framework—the Resident Assessment Instrument (RAI. Consistent compliance with this requirement has been difficult to achieve. To improve the quality of CCP development within this framework, an increased understanding of complex factors contributing to inconsistent compliance is required. In this commentary, we examine the history of the comprehensive care plan; its development within the RAI framework; linkages between the RAI and registered nurse staffing; empirical evidence of the CCP’s efficacy; and the limitations of extant standards of practices in CCP development. Because of the registered nurse’s educational preparation, professional practice standards, and licensure obligations, the essential contributions of professional nurses in CCP development are emphasized. Recommendations for evidence-based micro and macro level practice changes with the potential to improve the quality of CCP development and regulatory compliance are presented. Suggestions for future research are given.

Identification of Potential Hazard using Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Sari, R. M.; Syahputri, K.; Rizkya, I.; Siregar, I.

2017-03-01

This research was conducted in the paper production’s company. These Paper products will be used as a cigarette paper. Along in the production’s process, Company provides the machines and equipment that operated by workers. During the operations, all workers may potentially injured. It known as a potential hazard. Hazard identification and risk assessment is one part of a safety and health program in the stage of risk management. This is very important as part of efforts to prevent occupational injuries and diseases resulting from work. This research is experiencing a problem that is not the identification of potential hazards and risks that would be faced by workers during the running production process. The purpose of this study was to identify the potential hazards by using hazard identification and risk assessment methods. Risk assessment is done using severity criteria and the probability of an accident. According to the research there are 23 potential hazard that occurs with varying severity and probability. Then made the determination Risk Assessment Code (RAC) for each potential hazard, and gained 3 extreme risks, 10 high risks, 6 medium risks and 3 low risks. We have successfully identified potential hazard using RAC.

Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duinker, Peter N.; Greig, Lorne A.

2007-01-01

Scenarios and scenario analysis have become popular approaches in organizational planning and participatory exercises in pursuit of sustainable development. However, they are little used, at least in any formal way, in environmental impact assessment (EIA). This is puzzling because EIA is a process specifically dedicated to exploring options for more-sustainable (i.e., less environmentally damaging) futures. In this paper, we review the state of the art associated with scenarios and scenario analysis, and describe two areas where scenario analysis could be particularly helpful in EIA: (a) in defining future developments for cumulative effects assessment; and (b) in considering the influence of contextual change - e.g. climate change - on impact forecasts for specific projects. We conclude by encouraging EIA practitioners to learn about the promise of scenario-based analysis and implement scenario-based methods so that EIA can become more effective in fostering sustainable development

Public Review Draft: A Method for Assessing Carbon Stocks, Carbon Sequestration, and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes in Ecosystems of the United States Under Present Conditions and Future Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Robert G.; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

2010-01-01

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, authorizes the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation's ecosystems focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, shrub and grasslands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries), (2) an estimation of annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities), and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land use and land cover, and wildlfires. The purpose of this draft methodology for public review is to propose a technical plan to conduct the assessment. Within the methodology, the concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes used for the assessment follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess future potential conditions based on a set of projected scenarios. The scenario framework is constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with initial reference land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management scenarios. An additional three LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each

Methodological considerations and future insights for 24-hour dietary recall assessment in children.

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, Emma; Bradley, Jennifer

2018-03-01

Dietary assessment has come under much criticism of late to the extent that it has been questioned whether self-reported methods of dietary assessment are worth doing at all. Widespread under-reporting of energy intake, limitations due to memory, changes to intake due to the burden of recording and social desirability bias all impact significantly on the accuracy of the dietary information collected. Under-reporting of energy intakes has long been recognized as a problem in dietary research with doubly labeled water measures of energy expenditure uncovering significant under-reporting of energy intakes across different populations and different dietary assessment methods. In this review we focus on dietary assessment with children with particular attention on the 24-hour dietary recall method. We look at the level of under-reporting of energy intakes and how this tends to change with age, gender and body mass index. We discuss potential alternatives to self-reported (or proxy-reported) dietary assessment methods with children, such as biomarkers, and how these do not enable the collection of information important to public health nutrition such as the cooking method, the mixture of foods eaten together or the context in which the food is consumed. We conclude that despite all of the challenges and flaws, the data collected using self-reported dietary assessment methods are extremely valuable. Research into dietary assessment methodology has resulted in significant increases in our understanding of the limitations of self-reported methods and progressive improvements in the accuracy of the data collected. Hence, future investment in dietary surveillance and in improving self-reported methods of intake can make vital contributions to our understanding of dietary intakes and are thus warranted. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The future of FRMAC assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laiche, Thomas P.

2010-01-01

FRMAC was born out of circumstances 25 years ago when 17 federal agencies descended on the states with good intention during the Three-Mile Island nuclear power plant incident. At that time it quickly became evident that a better way was needed to support state and local governments in their time of emergency and recovery process. FRMAC's single voice of Federal support coordinates the multiple agencies that respond to a radiological event. Over the years, FRMAC has exercised, evaluated, and honed its ability to quickly respond to the needs of our communities. As the times have changed, FRMAC has expanded its focus from nuclear power plant incidents, to threats of a terrorist radiological dispersal device (RDD), to the unthinkable - an Improvised nuclear device (IND). And just as having the right tools are part of any trade, FRMAC's tool set has and is evolving to meet contemporary challenges - not just to improve the time it takes to collect data and assess the situation, but to provide a quality and comprehensive product that supports a stressed decision maker, responsible for the protection of the public. Innovations in the movement of data and information have changed our everyday lives. So too, FRMAC is capitalizing on industry innovations to improve the flow of information: from the early predictive models, to streamlining the process of getting data out of the field; to improving the time it takes to get assessed products in to the hands of the decision makers. FRMAC is focusing on the future through the digital age of electronic data processing. Public protective action and dose avoidance is the challenge.

Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

2009-01-01

Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

Future scenario development within life cycle assessment of waste management systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bisinella, Valentina

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is an acknowledged tool for quantifying the sustainability of waste management solutions. However, the use of LCA for decision-making is hindered by the strong dependency of the LCA results on the assumptions regarding the future conditions in which the waste management...... solutions will operate. Future scenario methods from the management engineering field may provide valid approaches for formulating consistent assumptions on future conditions for the waste management system modelled with LCA. However, the standardized LCA procedure currently does not offer much guidance...... field. The quantitative modelling implications were tested within real-scale LCA models focusing on the management of residual waste in Denmark. In a wide range of scenarios, this thesis addressed the influence on the LCA model results of realistic technology and waste composition uncertainties, as well...

Epicardial fat and atrial fibrillation: current evidence, potential mechanisms, clinical implications, and future directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Christopher X; Ganesan, Anand N; Selvanayagam, Joseph B

2017-05-01

Obesity is increasingly recognized as a major modifiable determinant of atrial fibrillation (AF). Although body mass index and other clinical measures are useful indications of general adiposity, much recent interest has focused on epicardial fat, a distinct adipose tissue depot that can be readily assessed using non-invasive imaging techniques. A growing body of data from epidemiological and clinical studies has demonstrated that epicardial fat is consistently associated with the presence, severity, and recurrence of AF across a range of clinical settings. Evidence from basic science and translational studies has also suggested that arrhythmogenic mechanisms may involve adipocyte infiltration, pro-fibrotic, and pro-inflammatory paracrine effects, oxidative stress, and other pathways. Despite these advances, however, significant uncertainty exists and many questions remain unanswered. In this article, we review our present understanding of epicardial fat, including its classification and quantification, existing evidence implicating its role in AF, potential mechanisms, implications for clinicians, and future directions for research. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2016. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Gene expression profiling in MDS and AML: potential and future avenues

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Theilgaard-Mönch, K; Boultwood, J; Ferrari, S

2011-01-01

Today, the classification systems for myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) and acute myeloid leukemia (AML) already incorporate cytogenetic and molecular genetic aberrations in an attempt to better reflect disease biology. However, in many MDS/AML patients no genetic aberrations have been identified yet...... with regard to diagnosis, prediction of clinical outcome, discovery of novel subclasses and identification of novel therapeutic targets and novel drugs. As many challenges remain ahead, we discuss the pitfalls of this technology and its potential including future integrative studies with other genomics...

Portfolio assessments for future generation investment in newly industrializing countries – A case study of Thailand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat; MacGill, Iain F.

2012-01-01

This paper assesses future electricity generation portfolios in Thailand in 2030 given uncertain future fossil-fuel prices, carbon pricing policies, electricity demand, and capital costs. Thailand faces challenges for generation investment given its rapid socio-economic progress and fast growing demand. A novel generation investment and planning decision-support tool which incorporates a Monte Carlo extension to conventional optimal generation mix methods combined with portfolio-based analysis techniques, is used. The tool can formally assess tradeoffs between expected future generation costs, cost uncertainties, and CO 2 emissions for the range of different generation portfolios. Results highlight that different levels of future carbon pricing will have significant impacts on the most appropriate generation portfolios. The impact of carbon pricing, however, is not on the appropriate proportion of combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT) in the mix but, instead, on the future role of coal versus nuclear in Thailand. Compared with the current proposed 2030 generation mix, it is possible that there are other generation portfolios that offer lower expected costs, cost uncertainty, and CO 2 emissions depending on future carbon pricing. Results suggest that this investment decision-support approach may have value for electric utilities and policy-makers contemplating significant generation investments under high future uncertainty and conflicting policy objectives. -- Highlights: ► Assess Thailand's future generation portfolios in 2030 under uncertainties. ► Future carbon prices have significant impacts on the appropriate generation mixes. ► Carbon pricing affects the future role of coal versus nuclear in Thailand. ► There may be more appropriate alternatives than the proposed 2030 generation mix. ► This decision-support approach has value for utility and policy decision-making.

A multi-criteria, ecosystem-service value method used to assess catchment suitability for potential wetland reconstruction in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Odgaard, Mette Vestergaard; Turner, Katrine Grace; Bøcher, Peder Klith

2017-01-01

Wetlands provide a range of ecosystem services such as drought resistance, flood resistance, nutrient deposition, biodiversity, etc. This study presents a new multi-criteria, ecosystems service value-driven method to drive the optimal placement of restored wetlands in terms of maximizing selected...... for potential wetland reconstruction (i.e. restoration)? Five key ecosystem services indicators produced or affected by wetlands in Denmark were mapped (recreational potential, biodiversity, nitrogen mitigation potential, inverse land rent, and flash-flood risk). These services were compared to current...... ecosystem services which a wetland can provide or affect. We aim to answer two questions: 1) which of the ecosystem services indicators defines the placement of wetlands today? 2) Based on the ecosystem services indicator assessment, what are the recommendations for future selection of catchments...

Remote Assessment of Lunar Resource Potential

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, G. Jeffrey

1992-01-01

Assessing the resource potential of the lunar surface requires a well-planned program to determine the chemical and mineralogical composition of the Moon's surface at a range of scales. The exploration program must include remote sensing measurements (from both Earth's surface and lunar orbit), robotic in situ analysis of specific places, and eventually, human field work by trained geologists. Remote sensing data is discussed. Resource assessment requires some idea of what resources will be needed. Studies thus far have concentrated on oxygen and hydrogen production for propellant and life support, He-3 for export as fuel for nuclear fusion reactors, and use of bulk regolith for shielding and construction materials. The measurement requirements for assessing these resources are given and discussed briefly.

Risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. Current approaches and future strategies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Larsen, John Christian; Meyer, Otto A.

2010-01-01

The risk assessment of pesticide residues in food is based on toxicological evaluation of the single compounds and no internationally accepted procedure exists for evaluation of cumulative exposure to multiple residues of pesticides in crops, except for a few groups of pesticides sharing a group...... several approaches are available for the risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. However, no single simple approach is available to judge upon potential interactions at the low doses that humans are exposed to from pesticide residues in food. In these cases, PBTK models could be useful as tools...... to assess combined tissue doses and to help predict potential interactions including thresholds for such effects. This would improve the quality of the risk assessment....

Future potential distribution of the emerging amphibian chytrid fungus under anthropogenic climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Lötters, Stefan

2010-11-01

Anthropogenic climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity with a potential to alter biological interactions at all spatial scales. Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates and have been subject to increasing conservation attention over the past decade. A particular concern is the pandemic emergence of the parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which has been identified as the cause of extremely rapid large-scale declines and species extinctions. Experimental and observational studies have demonstrated that the host-pathogen system is strongly influenced by climatic parameters and thereby potentially affected by climate change. Herein we project a species distribution model of the pathogen onto future climatic scenarios generated by the IPCC to examine their potential implications on the pandemic. Results suggest that predicted anthropogenic climate change may reduce the geographic range of B. dendrobatidis and its potential influence on amphibian biodiversity.

Future of car-sharing in Germany: Customer potential estimation, diffusion and ecological effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilke, Georg; Bongardt, Daniel

2007-01-01

The article summarises selected key results of the project 'Future of Car-Sharing in Germany', funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research. The target of the research was to improve the informational basis for the traffic and environmental assessment of car-sharing in Germany by means of an empirically based estimation of the medium-term perspective (time horizon 2020). Intermediate results were presented at the ECEEE congress 2005.Basis of the demand analyses, which were aligned to the milieu concept, was provided by two surveys (a non-representative survey of circa 500 customers and former customers and a representative survey of around 1,500 non-customers). In the interviews two service scenarios of a 'new' Car-Sharing in the shape of short-term car rental without ecological requirements were used. The analysis of the surveys was differentiated on two levels: On general level covering the whole sample and on the level of sub-samples covering the different milieus. Findings are provided with regard to prospective customers (social milieu affiliation, social profiles, notional using patterns) and backgrounds of their interest in short-term car rental as well as results of a customer potential estimation and a traffic and eco-balance. The results show that a diffusion of short-term car rentals appears feasible with an eco-balance remaining positive. For various reasons, the market development to be achieved by the year 2020, however, should be relatively limited. Similar is true for the potential contribution of car-sharing to a sustainable mobility altogether

MEDIA ENVIRONMENT AS FACTOR OF REALIZATION OF CREATIVE POTENTIAL OF FUTURE TEACHERS` IN THE MOUNTAIN SCHOOLS OF THE UKRAINIAN CARPATHIANS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alla Lebedieva

2015-04-01

Full Text Available The article shows up “media environment” as a factor of future teachers` creative potential realization in the mountainous schools of the Ukrainian Carpathians. The problem of using media environment as a factor of future teachers` creative potential in the mountainous schools of the Ukrainian Carpathians and the ways of its optimization is the main point of this research. Highlights ways to modernize social and professional orientation training of students in the creative process of nature is situates in information education and educational environment of high school. We consider the causal link use media environment as a factor of future teachers` creative potential and complexity of the teacher in the mountainous schools of the Ukrainian Carpathians. The basic function of the media environment are extensity, instrumental, communicative, interactive, multimedia. Reveals some aspects of training students to creatively active teaching process we describe subjects with objective possibilities in the formation of professional skills of future teachers` and which directly affect the realization of creative potential – “Ukrainian folk art”, “Basic recitation and rhetoric”, “The basis of pedagogical creativity”. The necessity of creating a full-fledged media environment in higher education is important condition of successful education as an important factor that allows the efficiency of the creative potential of future teachers` in the mountainous schools of the Ukrainian Carpathians.

Chemical conditions in present and future ecosystems in Forsmark - implications for selected radionuclides in the safety assessment SR-Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Troejbom, Mats; Grolander, Sara

2010-12-01

This report is a background report for the biosphere analysis of the SR-Site Safety Assessment. This work aims to describe the future development of the chemical conditions at Forsmark, based on the present chemical conditions at landscape level taking landscape development and climate cases into consideration. The results presented contribute to the overall understanding of the present and future chemistry in the Forsmark area, and specifically, to the understanding of the behaviour of some selected radionuclides in the surface system. The future development of the chemistry at the site is qualitatively discussed with focus on the interglacial within the next 10,000 years. The effects on the chemical environment of future climate cases as Global Warming and cold permafrost climates are also briefly discussed. The work is presented in two independent parts describing background radionuclide activities in the Forsmark area and the distribution and behaviour of a large number of stable elements in the landscape. In a concluding section, implications of the future chemical environment of a selection of radionuclides important in the Safety Assessment are discussed based on the knowledge of stable elements. The broad range of elements studied show that there are general and expected patterns for the distribution and behaviour in the landscape of different groups of elements. Mass balances reveal major sources and sinks, pool estimations show where elements are accumulated in the landscape and estimations of time-scales give indications of the potential future development. This general knowledge is transferred to radionuclides not measured in order to estimate their behaviour and distribution in the landscape. It could be concluded that the future development of the chemical environment in the Forsmark area might affect element specific parameters used in de radionuclide model in different directions depending on element. The alternative climate cases, Global Warming

Chemical conditions in present and future ecosystems in Forsmark - implications for selected radionuclides in the safety assessment SR-Site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Troejbom, Mats (Mats Troejbom Konsult AB (Sweden)); Grolander, Sara (Facilia AB (Sweden))

2010-12-15

This report is a background report for the biosphere analysis of the SR-Site Safety Assessment. This work aims to describe the future development of the chemical conditions at Forsmark, based on the present chemical conditions at landscape level taking landscape development and climate cases into consideration. The results presented contribute to the overall understanding of the present and future chemistry in the Forsmark area, and specifically, to the understanding of the behaviour of some selected radionuclides in the surface system. The future development of the chemistry at the site is qualitatively discussed with focus on the interglacial within the next 10,000 years. The effects on the chemical environment of future climate cases as Global Warming and cold permafrost climates are also briefly discussed. The work is presented in two independent parts describing background radionuclide activities in the Forsmark area and the distribution and behaviour of a large number of stable elements in the landscape. In a concluding section, implications of the future chemical environment of a selection of radionuclides important in the Safety Assessment are discussed based on the knowledge of stable elements. The broad range of elements studied show that there are general and expected patterns for the distribution and behaviour in the landscape of different groups of elements. Mass balances reveal major sources and sinks, pool estimations show where elements are accumulated in the landscape and estimations of time-scales give indications of the potential future development. This general knowledge is transferred to radionuclides not measured in order to estimate their behaviour and distribution in the landscape. It could be concluded that the future development of the chemical environment in the Forsmark area might affect element specific parameters used in de radionuclide model in different directions depending on element. The alternative climate cases, Global Warming

Assessment of the potential of urban organic carbon dynamics to off-set urban anthropogenic emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Gottschalk, P.; Churkina, G.; Wattenbach, M.; Cubasch, U.

2010-12-01

The impact of urban systems on current and future global carbon emissions has been a focus of several studies. Many mitigation options in terms of increasing energy efficiency are discussed. However, apart from technical mitigation potential urban systems also have a considerable biogenic potential to mitigate carbon through an optimized management of organic carbon pools of vegetation and soil. Berlin city area comprises almost 50% of areas covered with vegetation or largely covered with vegetation. This potentially offers various areas for carbon mitigation actions. To assess the mitigation potentials our first objective is to estimate how large current vegetation and soil carbon stocks of Berlin are. We use publicly available forest and soil inventories to calculate soil organic carbon of non-pervious areas and forest standing biomass carbon. This research highlights data-gaps and assigns uncertainty ranges to estimated carbon resources. The second objective is to assess the carbon mitigation potential of Berlin’s vegetation and soils using a biogeochemical simulation model. BIOME-BGC simulates carbon-, nitrogen- and water-fluxes of ecosystems mechanistically. First, its applicability for Berlin forests is tested at selected sites. A spatial application gives an estimate of current net carbon fluxes. The application of such a model allows determining the sensitivity of key ecosystem processes (e.g. carbon gains through photosynthesis, carbon losses through decomposition) towards external drivers. This information can then be used to optimise forest management in terms of carbon mitigation. Initial results of Berlin’s current carbon stocks and its spatial distribution and preliminary simulations results will be presented.

Health technology assessment: research trends and future priorities in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Nielsen, Camilla Palmhøj; Funch, Tina Maria; Kristensen, Finn Børlum

2011-07-01

To provide an overview of health services research related to health technology assessment (HTA) and to identify research priorities from a European perspective. Several methods were used: systematic review of articles indexed with the MeSH term 'technology assessment' in PubMed from February 1999-2009; online survey among experts; and conference workshop discussions. Research activity in HTA varies considerably across Europe. The research was categorised into six areas: (1) the breadth of analysis in HTA (such as economic, organizational and social aspects); (2) HTA products developed to meet the needs of policy-makers (such as horizon scanning, mini-HTA, and core HTA); (3) handling life-cycle perspectives in relation to technologies; (4) topics that challenge existing methods and for which HTA should be developed to address the themes more comprehensively (such as public health interventions and organizational interventions); (5) development of HTA capacity and programmes; and (6) links between policy and HTA. An online survey showed that the three areas that were given priority were the relationship between HTA and policy-making (71%), the impact of HTA (62%) and incorporating patient aspects in HTA (50%). Policy-makers highlighted HTA and innovation processes as their main research priority (42%). Areas that the systematic review identified as future priorities include issues within the six existing research areas such as disinvestment, developing evidence for new technologies, assessing the wider effects of technology use, and determining how HTA affects decision-making. In addition, relative effectiveness and individualized treatments are areas of growing interest. The research priorities identified are important for obtaining high quality and cost-effective health care in Europe. Managing the introduction, use and phasing out of technologies challenges health services throughout Europe, and these processes need to be improved to successfully manage future

Ecological models for regulatory risk assessments of pesticides: Developing a strategy for the future.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Thorbek, P.; Forbes, V.; Heimbach, F.; Hommen, U.; Thulke, H.H.; Brink, van den P.J.

2010-01-01

Ecological Models for Regulatory Risk Assessments of Pesticides: Developing a Strategy for the Future provides a coherent, science-based view on ecological modeling for regulatory risk assessments. It discusses the benefits of modeling in the context of registrations, identifies the obstacles that

Neural correlates of self-appraisals in the near and distant future: an event-related potential study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yangmei Luo

Full Text Available To investigate perceptual and neural correlates of future self-appraisals as a function of temporal distance, event-related potentials (ERPs were recorded while participants (11 women, eight men made judgments about the applicability of trait adjectives to their near future selves (i.e., one month from now and their distant future selves (i.e., three years from now. Behavioral results indicated people used fewer positive adjectives, more negative adjectives, recalled more specific events coming to mind and felt more psychologically connected to the near future self than the distant future self. Electrophysiological results demonstrated that negative trait adjectives elicited more positive ERP deflections than did positive trait adjectives in the interval between 550 and 800 ms (late positive component within the near future self condition. However, within the same interval, there were no significant differences between negative and positive traits adjectives in the distant future self condition. The results suggest that negative emotional processing in future self-appraisals is modulated by temporal distance, consistent with predictions of construal level theory.

Minimum and Maximum Potential Contributions to Future Sea Level Rise from Polar Ice Sheets

Science.gov (United States)

Deconto, R. M.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

New climate and ice-sheet modeling, calibrated to past changes in sea-level, is painting a stark picture of the future fate of the great polar ice sheets if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. This is especially true for Antarctica, where a substantial fraction of the ice sheet rests on bedrock more than 500-meters below sea level. Here, we explore the sensitivity of the polar ice sheets to a warming atmosphere and ocean under a range of future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The ice sheet-climate-ocean model used here considers time-evolving changes in surface mass balance and sub-ice oceanic melting, ice deformation, grounding line retreat on reverse-sloped bedrock (Marine Ice Sheet Instability), and newly added processes including hydrofracturing of ice shelves in response to surface meltwater and rain, and structural collapse of thick, marine-terminating ice margins with tall ice-cliff faces (Marine Ice Cliff Instability). The simulations improve on previous work by using 1) improved atmospheric forcing from a Regional Climate Model and 2) a much wider range of model physical parameters within the bounds of modern observations of ice dynamical processes (particularly calving rates) and paleo constraints on past ice-sheet response to warming. Approaches to more precisely define the climatic thresholds capable of triggering rapid and potentially irreversible ice-sheet retreat are also discussed, as is the potential for aggressive mitigation strategies like those discussed at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21) to substantially reduce the risk of extreme sea-level rise. These results, including physics that consider both ice deformation (creep) and calving (mechanical failure of marine terminating ice) expand on previously estimated limits of maximum rates of future sea level rise based solely on kinematic constraints of glacier flow. At the high end, the new results show the potential for more than 2m of global mean sea level rise by 2100

Assessing the Validity of the Simplified Potential Energy Clock Model for Modeling Glass-Ceramics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jamison, Ryan Dale [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Grillet, Anne M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Stavig, Mark E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Strong, Kevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Dai, Steve Xunhu [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-10-01

Glass-ceramic seals may be the future of hermetic connectors at Sandia National Laboratories. They have been shown capable of surviving higher temperatures and pressures than amorphous glass seals. More advanced finite-element material models are required to enable model-based design and provide evidence that the hermetic connectors can meet design requirements. Glass-ceramics are composite materials with both crystalline and amorphous phases. The latter gives rise to (non-linearly) viscoelastic behavior. Given their complex microstructures, glass-ceramics may be thermorheologically complex, a behavior outside the scope of currently implemented constitutive models at Sandia. However, it was desired to assess if the Simplified Potential Energy Clock (SPEC) model is capable of capturing the material response. Available data for SL 16.8 glass-ceramic was used to calibrate the SPEC model. Model accuracy was assessed by comparing model predictions with shear moduli temperature dependence and high temperature 3-point bend creep data. It is shown that the model can predict the temperature dependence of the shear moduli and 3- point bend creep data. Analysis of the results is presented. Suggestions for future experiments and model development are presented. Though further calibration is likely necessary, SPEC has been shown capable of modeling glass-ceramic behavior in the glass transition region but requires further analysis below the transition region.

Future production and utilisation of biomass in Sweden: potentials and CO2 mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boerjesson, P.; Gustavsson, L.; Christersson, L.; Linder, S.

1997-01-01

Swedish biomass production potential could be increased significantly if new production methods, such as optimised fertilisation, were to be used. Optimised fertilisation on 25% of Swedish forest land and the use of stem wood could almost double the biomass potential from forestry compared with no fertilisation, as both logging residues and large quantities of excess stem wood not needed for industrial purposes could be used for energy purposes. Together with energy crops and straw from agriculture, the total Swedish biomass potential would be about 230 TWh/yr or half the current Swedish energy supply if the demand for stem wood for building and industrial purposes were the same as today. The new production methods are assumed not to cause any significant negative impact on the local environment. The cost of utilising stem wood produced with optimised fertilisation for energy purposes has not been analysed and needs further investigation. Besides replacing fossil fuels and, thus, reducing current Swedish CO 2 emissions by about 65%, this amount of biomass is enough to produce electricity equivalent to 20% of current power production. Biomass-based electricity is produced preferably through co-generation using district heating systems in densely populated regions, and pulp industries in forest regions. Alcohols for transportation and stand-alone power production are preferably produced in less densely populated regions with excess biomass. A high intensity in biomass production would reduce biomass transportation demands. There are uncertainties regarding the future demand for stem wood for building and industrial purposes, the amount of arable land available for energy crop production and future yields. These factors will influence Swedish biomass potential and earlier estimates of the potential vary from 15 to 125 TWh/yr. (author)

Maintaining the Uranium Resources Assessment Data System and assessing the 1990 US uranium potential resources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McCammon, R.B.; Finch, W.I.; Grundy, W.D.; Pierson, C.T.

1991-01-01

The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Uranium Resource Assessment Data System contains information on potential resources (undiscovered) of uranium in the United States. The purpose of this report is: (1) to describe the work carried out to maintain and update the Uranium Resource Assessment Data (URAD) System, (2) to assess the 1990 US uranium potential resources in various cost categories, and (3) to identify problems and to recommend changes that are needed to improve the URAD System. 13 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs

Substrate potential of last interglacial to Holocene permafrost organic matter for future microbial greenhouse gas production

Science.gov (United States)

Stapel, Janina G.; Schwamborn, Georg; Schirrmeister, Lutz; Horsfield, Brian; Mangelsdorf, Kai

2018-04-01

In this study the organic matter (OM) in several permafrost cores from Bol'shoy Lyakhovsky Island in NE Siberia was investigated. In the context of the observed global warming the aim was to evaluate the potential of freeze-locked OM from different depositional ages to act as a substrate provider for microbial production of greenhouse gases from thawing permafrost. To assess this potential, the concentrations of free and bound acetate, which form an appropriate substrate for methanogenesis, were determined. The largest free-acetate (in pore water) and bound-acetate (organic-matrix-linked) substrate pools were present in interstadial marine isotope stage (MIS) 3 and stadial MIS 4 Yedoma permafrost deposits. In contrast, deposits from the last interglacial MIS 5e (Eemian) contained only a small pool of substrates. The Holocene (MIS 1) deposits revealed a significant bound-acetate pool, representing a future substrate potential upon release during OM degradation. Additionally, pyrolysis experiments on the OM allocated an increased aliphatic character to the MIS 3 and 4 Late Pleistocene deposits, which might indicate less decomposed and presumably more easily degradable OM. Biomarkers for past microbial communities, including those for methanogenic archaea, also showed the highest abundance during MIS 3 and 4, which indicated OM-stimulated microbial degradation and presumably greenhouse gas production during time of deposition. On a broader perspective, Arctic warming will increase and deepen permafrost thaw and favor substrate availability from older freeze-locked permafrost deposits. Thus, the Yedoma deposits especially showed a high potential for providing substrates relevant for microbial greenhouse gas production.

Future changes in global warming potentials under representative concentration pathways

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reisinger, Andy [New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre, PO Box 10002, Wellington 6143 (New Zealand); Meinshausen, Malte [Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany); Manning, Martin, E-mail: andy.reisinger@nzagrc.org.nz [Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington (New Zealand)

2011-04-15

Global warming potentials (GWPs) are the metrics currently used to compare emissions of different greenhouse gases under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Future changes in greenhouse gas concentrations will alter GWPs because the radiative efficiencies of marginal changes in CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O depend on their background concentrations, the removal of CO{sub 2} is influenced by climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, and atmospheric residence times of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O also depend on ambient temperature and other environmental changes. We calculated the currently foreseeable future changes in the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2}, which acts as the denominator for the calculation of all GWPs, and specifically the GWPs of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O, along four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) up to the year 2100. We find that the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2} decreases under all RCPs, although for longer time horizons this decrease is smaller than for short time horizons due to increased climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. The 100-year GWP of CH{sub 4} would increase up to 20% under the lowest RCP by 2100 but would decrease by up to 10% by mid-century under the highest RCP. The 100-year GWP of N{sub 2}O would increase by more than 30% by 2100 under the highest RCP but would vary by less than 10% under other scenarios. These changes are not negligible but are mostly smaller than the changes that would result from choosing a different time horizon for GWPs, or from choosing altogether different metrics for comparing greenhouse gas emissions, such as global temperature change potentials.

Assessment of bioenergy potential on marginal land in China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhuang, Dafang; Jiang, Dong; Liu, Lei; Huang, Yaohuan [Data Center for Resources and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101 (China)

2011-02-15

Bioenergy developed from energy plants will play a more and more important role in future energy supply. Much attention has been paid to energy plants in recent years. As China has fairly limited cultivated land resources, the bioenergy development may mainly rely on the exploitation of marginal land. This study focused on the assessment of marginal land resources and bio-fuel potential in China using newly acquired data and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. A multi-factor analysis method was adopted to identify marginal lands for bioenergy development in China, with data of several main types of energy plants on the eco-environmental requirements and natural habits employed. A combined planting zonation strategy was proposed, which was targeted for five species of energy plants including Helianthus tuberous L., Pistacia chinensis, Jatropha curcas L., Cassava and Vernicia fordii. The results indicated that total area of marginal land exploitable for development of energy plants on a large scale was about 43.75 million ha. If 10% of this marginal land was fully utilized for growing the energy plants, the production of bio-fuel would be 13.39 million tons. (author)

Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Can

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moren, Lena

2006-10-01

This report documents the future human actions (FHA) considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Can. The purpose of this report is to provide an account of: General considerations concerning FHA; The methodology applied in SR-Can to assess FHA; The aspects of FHA that need to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository; and The selection of representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis

Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Can

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moren, Lena

2006-10-15

This report documents the future human actions (FHA) considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Can. The purpose of this report is to provide an account of: General considerations concerning FHA; The methodology applied in SR-Can to assess FHA; The aspects of FHA that need to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository; and The selection of representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis.

FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

R.M. Forester

2000-01-01

This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure l), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog

FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

R.M. Forester

2000-03-14

This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure l), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog.

Assessing current and future techno-economic potential of concentrated solar power and photovoltaic electricity generation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Köberle, Alexandre C.; Gernaat, David E H J; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2015-01-01

CSP and PV technologies represent energy sources with large potentials. We present cost-supply curves for both technologies using a consistent methodology for 26 regions, based on geoexplicit information on solar radiation, land cover type and slope, exploring individual potential and

Review: Assessing the climate mitigation potential of biomass

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrick Moriarty

2016-12-01

Full Text Available For many millennia, humans have used biomass for three broad purposes: food for humans and fodder for farm animals; energy; and materials. Food has always been exclusively produced from biomass, and in the year 1800, biomass still accounted for about 95% of all energy. Biomass has also been a major source of materials for construction, implements, clothing, bedding and other uses, but some researchers think that total human uses of biomass will soon reach limits of sustainability. It is thus important to select those biomass uses that will maximise global climate change benefits. With a ‘food first’ policy, it is increasingly recognised that projections of food needs are important for estimating future global bioenergy potential, and that non-food uses of biomass can be increased by both food crop yield improvements and dietary changes. However, few researchers have explicitly included future biomaterials production as a factor in bioenergy potential. Although biomaterials’ share of the materials market has roughly halved over the past quarter-century, we show that per tonne of biomass, biomaterials will usually allow greater greenhouse gas reductions than directly using biomass for bioenergy. particularly since in many cases, biomaterials can be later burnt for energy after their useful life.

Future Climate Change Impact Assessment of River Flows at Two Watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2016-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the river flows under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate model and a physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations. Coarse resolution GCMs' future projections covering a wide range of emission scenarios were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over the study area. Hydrologic simulations of the two selected watersheds were carried out at hillslope-scale and at hourly increments.

Is Environmental Impact Assessment fulfilling its potential?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Sanne Vammen

2014-01-01

fuel with CO2-neutral energy sources. A variety of these projects are subject to environmental impact assessment (EIA), which raises the following questions: What role does an impact assessment play? When is the project environmentally friendly? How are climate change-related impacts assessed......One of the topics receiving much attention in recent years is climate change and the potential of its integration in impact assessment, both in terms of achieving mitigation and adaptation. Renewable energy projects are part of the efforts to mitigate climate change, replacing the use of fossil...... adaptation is absent. Also, the results show an emphasis on positive impacts in the reports, and in a few cases discussions of enhancements. Identification and assessment of negative climate change impacts are less apparent. This leads to a discussion of the results in the light of the purpose of EIA....

Techno-economic viability assessments of greener propulsion technology under potential environmental regulatory policy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nalianda, D.K.; Kyprianidis, K.G.; Sethi, V.; Singh, R.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • An advanced method is presented for techno-economic assessment under potential environmental regulatory policy scenarios. • The viability of the contra-rotating open rotor concept is investigated under various environmental policies. • CO_2 taxation is needed to drive the aerospace industry towards greener solutions. - Abstract: Sustainability of the aviation industry, as any other industry, depends on the elasticity of demand for the product and profitability through minimising operating costs. Of paramount importance is assessing and understanding the interdependency and effects of environmentally optimised solutions and emission mitigation policies. This paper describes the development and application of assessment methodologies to better understand the effects of environmental taxation/energy policies aimed at environmental pollution reduction and the future potential economic impact they may have on the adaptation of “greener” novel technologies. These studies are undertaken using a Techno-economic Environmental Risk Assessment approach. The methodology demonstrated allows the assessment of the economic viability of new technologies compared to conventional technologies, for various CO_2 emission taxation and fuel price scenarios. It considers relative increases in acquisition price and maintenance costs. A study undertaken as a ‘proof of concept’ compares a Counter Rotating Open Rotor aircraft with a conventional aircraft for short range operations. It indicates that at current fuel price and with no carbon taxation, a highly fuel efficient technology, such as the one considered, could be rendered economically unviable. The work goes on to demonstrate that in comparison to the conventional aircraft, any economic benefits that may be accrued from improvement in fuel consumption through such a technology, may well be negated through increases in acquisition price and maintenance costs. The work further demonstrates that if policy

Consequence Assessment for Potential Scenarios of Radiological Terrorists Events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shin, Hyeongki; Kim, Juyoul

2007-01-01

Radiological dispersal device (RDD) means any method used to deliberately disperse radioactive material to create terror or harm. Dirty bomb is an example of RDD, which usually consists of radioactive material and unconventional explosive. Dirty bomb was a problem long before September 11, 2001. In 1987, the Iraqi government tested a one-ton radiological bomb. The Iraqi tests confirmed that a dirty bomb is not effective as weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and that its main value is as a psychological weapon. In 1995, Chechen rebels buried a dirty bomb in a park in Moscow threatening to detonate one in the future if their demands were not met. Another good example of potential dirty bomb effects was an incident in Goiania, Brazil on September 18, 1987, where an orphaned medical source containing 1,375 Ci of Cs-137 resulted the death of four people and extensive environmental contamination. The purposes of radiological terrorists events are not to destroy or damage the target but to disperse radioactivity in the environment. They inflict panic on a public and economic damage by disruption of business. They also have influence on enormous clean-up costs by spreading radioactive contamination including secondary impacts on water supply reservoirs. Generally, two major long-term concerns following a RDD are human health and economic impacts. In this study, we developed potential scenarios of radiological terrorists events and performed their radiological consequence assessments in terms of total effective dose equivalent (TEDE), projected cumulative external and internal dose, and ground deposition of radioactivity

Consequence Assessment for Potential Scenarios of Radiological Terrorists Events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shin, Hyeongki [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Juyoul [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2007-07-01

Radiological dispersal device (RDD) means any method used to deliberately disperse radioactive material to create terror or harm. Dirty bomb is an example of RDD, which usually consists of radioactive material and unconventional explosive. Dirty bomb was a problem long before September 11, 2001. In 1987, the Iraqi government tested a one-ton radiological bomb. The Iraqi tests confirmed that a dirty bomb is not effective as weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and that its main value is as a psychological weapon. In 1995, Chechen rebels buried a dirty bomb in a park in Moscow threatening to detonate one in the future if their demands were not met. Another good example of potential dirty bomb effects was an incident in Goiania, Brazil on September 18, 1987, where an orphaned medical source containing 1,375 Ci of Cs-137 resulted the death of four people and extensive environmental contamination. The purposes of radiological terrorists events are not to destroy or damage the target but to disperse radioactivity in the environment. They inflict panic on a public and economic damage by disruption of business. They also have influence on enormous clean-up costs by spreading radioactive contamination including secondary impacts on water supply reservoirs. Generally, two major long-term concerns following a RDD are human health and economic impacts. In this study, we developed potential scenarios of radiological terrorists events and performed their radiological consequence assessments in terms of total effective dose equivalent (TEDE), projected cumulative external and internal dose, and ground deposition of radioactivity.

Synthetic fuels for transportation : background paper #1 : the future potential of electric and hybrid vehicles

Science.gov (United States)

1982-03-01

This report presents a comprehensive review of the future of electric and hybrid : vehicles through the year 2010 in the United States. It was prepared for the : Office of Technology Assessment as background information for its study, : "Synthetic Fu...

Cell transformation assays for prediction of carcinogenic potential: state of the science and future research needs

Science.gov (United States)

Creton, Stuart; Aardema, Marilyn J.; Carmichael, Paul L.; Harvey, James S.; Martin, Francis L.; Newbold, Robert F.; O’Donovan, Michael R.; Pant, Kamala; Poth, Albrecht; Sakai, Ayako; Sasaki, Kiyoshi; Scott, Andrew D.; Schechtman, Leonard M.; Shen, Rhine R.; Tanaka, Noriho; Yasaei, Hemad

2012-01-01

Cell transformation assays (CTAs) have long been proposed as in vitro methods for the identification of potential chemical carcinogens. Despite showing good correlation with rodent bioassay data, concerns over the subjective nature of using morphological criteria for identifying transformed cells and a lack of understanding of the mechanistic basis of the assays has limited their acceptance for regulatory purposes. However, recent drivers to find alternative carcinogenicity assessment methodologies, such as the Seventh Amendment to the EU Cosmetics Directive, have fuelled renewed interest in CTAs. Research is currently ongoing to improve the objectivity of the assays, reveal the underlying molecular changes leading to transformation and explore the use of novel cell types. The UK NC3Rs held an international workshop in November 2010 to review the current state of the art in this field and provide directions for future research. This paper outlines the key points highlighted at this meeting. PMID:21852270

Assessment on the rates and potentials of soil organic carbon sequestration in agricultural lands in Japan using a process-based model and spatially explicit land-use change inventories - Part 2: Future potentials

Science.gov (United States)

Yagasaki, Y.; Shirato, Y.

2014-08-01

Future potentials of the sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural lands in Japan were estimated using a simulation system we recently developed to simulate SOC stock change at country-scale under varying land-use change, climate, soil, and agricultural practices, in a spatially explicit manner. Simulation was run from 1970 to 2006 with historical inventories, and subsequently to 2020 with future scenarios of agricultural activity comprised of various agricultural policy targets advocated by the Japanese government. Furthermore, the simulation was run subsequently until 2100 while forcing no temporal changes in land-use and agricultural activity to investigate duration and course of SOC stock change at country scale. A scenario with an increased rate of organic carbon input to agricultural fields by intensified crop rotation in combination with the suppression of conversion of agricultural lands to other land-use types was found to have a greater reduction of CO2 emission by enhanced soil carbon sequestration, but only under a circumstance in which the converted agricultural lands will become settlements that were considered to have a relatively lower rate of organic carbon input. The size of relative reduction of CO2 emission in this scenario was comparable to that in another contrasting scenario (business-as-usual scenario of agricultural activity) in which a relatively lower rate of organic matter input to agricultural fields was assumed in combination with an increased rate of conversion of the agricultural fields to unmanaged grasslands through abandonment. Our simulation experiment clearly demonstrated that net-net-based accounting on SOC stock change, defined as the differences between the emissions and removals during the commitment period and the emissions and removals during a previous period (base year or base period of Kyoto Protocol), can be largely influenced by variations in future climate. Whereas baseline-based accounting, defined

Assessing future trends in indoor air quality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

van de Wiel, H.J.; Lebret, E.; van der Lingen, W.K.; Eerens, H.C.; Vaas, L.H.; Leupen, M.J.

1990-01-01

Several national and international health organizations have derived concentration levels below which adverse effects on men are not expected or levels below which the excess risk for individuals is less than a specified value. For every priority pollutant indoor concentrations below this limit are considered healthy. The percentage of Dutch homes exceeding such a limit is taken as a measure of indoor air quality for that component. The present and future indoor air quality of the Dutch housing stock is described for fourteen air pollutants. The highest percentages are scored by radon, environmental tobacco smoke, nitrogen dioxide from unvented combustion, and the potential presence of housedust mite and mould allergen in damp houses. Although the trend for all priority pollutants is downward the most serious ones remain high in the coming decades if no additional measures will be instituted

Integrated environmental assessment of future energy scenarios based on economic equilibrium models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Igos, E.; Rugani, B.; Rege, S.; Benetto, E.; Drouet, L.; Zachary, D.; Haas, T.

2014-01-01

The future evolution of energy supply technologies strongly depends on (and affects) the economic and environmental systems, due to the high dependency of this sector on the availability and cost of fossil fuels, especially on the small regional scale. This paper aims at presenting the modeling system and preliminary results of a research project conducted on the scale of Luxembourg to assess the environmental impact of future energy scenarios for the country, integrating outputs from partial and computable general equilibrium models within hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) frameworks. The general equilibrium model for Luxembourg, LUXGEM, is used to evaluate the economic impacts of policy decisions and other economic shocks over the time horizon 2006-2030. A techno-economic (partial equilibrium) model for Luxembourg, ETEM, is used instead to compute operation levels of various technologies to meet the demand for energy services at the least cost along the same timeline. The future energy demand and supply are made consistent by coupling ETEM with LUXGEM so as to have the same macro-economic variables and energy shares driving both models. The coupling results are then implemented within a set of Environmentally-Extended Input-Output (EE-IO) models in historical time series to test the feasibility of the integrated framework and then to assess the environmental impacts of the country. Accordingly, a dis-aggregated energy sector was built with the different ETEM technologies in the EE-IO to allow hybridization with Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and enrich the process detail. The results show that the environmental impact slightly decreased overall from 2006 to 2009. Most of the impacts come from some imported commodities (natural gas, used to produce electricity, and metalliferous ores and metal scrap). The main energy production technology is the combined-cycle gas turbine plant 'Twinerg', representing almost 80% of the domestic electricity production in Luxembourg

Regional landslide hazard assessment in a deep uncertain future

Science.gov (United States)

Almeida, Susana; Holcombe, Liz; Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-04-01

Landslides have many negative economic and societal impacts, including the potential for significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. These risks are likely to be exacerbated in the future by a combination of climatic and socio-economic factors. Climate change, for example, is expected to increase the occurrence of rainfall-triggered landslides, because a warmer atmosphere tends to produce more high intensity rainfall events. Prediction of future changes in rainfall, however, is subject to high levels of uncertainty, making it challenging for decision-makers to identify the areas and populations that are most vulnerable to landslide hazards. In this study, we demonstrate how a physically-based model - the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model (CHASM) - can be used together with Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to explore the underlying factors controlling the spatial distribution of landslide risks across a regional landscape, while also accounting for deep uncertainty around future rainfall conditions. We demonstrate how GSA can used to analyse CHASM which in turn represents the spatial variability of hillslope characteristics in the study region, while accounting for other uncertainties. Results are presented in the form of landslide hazard maps, utilising high-resolution digital elevation datasets for a case study in St Lucia in the Caribbean. Our findings about spatial landslide hazard drivers have important implications for data collection approaches and for long-term decision-making about land management practices.

Virtual water content of temperate cereals and maize: Present and potential future patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Fader, Marianela; Rost, Stefanie; Müller, Christoph; Bondeau, Alberte; Gerten, Dieter

2010-04-01

SummaryKnowledge of the virtual water content (VWC) of crops and especially its possible future developments is helpful for improvements in water productivity and water management, which are necessary at global scale due to rising demand for food, the necessity to ease present and future water scarcity, and the reduction of poverty. Using a dynamic global vegetation and water balance model (LPJmL), this study quantifies the VWC of two of the most important crop types worldwide, temperate cereals and maize, at high spatial resolution (0.5°). We analyzed present conditions (1999-2003) and also for the first time also for scenarios of future climate and increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations (2041-2070; HadCM3, ECHAM5 and CCSM3 climate models, A2 emissions scenario). VWC presently differs significantly among regions: highest values are common in large parts of Africa (>2 m 3 kg -1), and lowest values were found e.g. for Central Europe (Europe, South Africa, Argentina, Australia and South East Asia—are projected to become less water efficient (higher VWC) for at least one of the crop types. CO 2 fertilisation was simulated to generally reduce VWC, though realisation of this effect in the field will depend, for example, on the intensity of nutrient management in the future. The potentially adverse future changes in VWC found here pose a challenge to water management efforts and eventually global trade policies.

Beyond speculative robot ethics: A vision assessment study on the future of the robotic caretaker

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Plas, A.P. van der; Smits, M.; Wehrmann, C.

2010-01-01

In this article we develop a dialogue model for robot technology experts and designated users to discuss visions on the future of robotics in long-term care. Our vision assessment study aims for more distinguished and more informed visions on future robots. Surprisingly, our experiment also led to

Back to the Future: Personality and Assessment and Personality Development

OpenAIRE

Roberts, Brent W.

2009-01-01

In this essay I consider the future of personality development in light of the past effects of Personality and Assessment on the field of personality in general and personality development in particular. The essay is organized around 1) the effect of Mischel's book on the foundational theories informing personality development; 2) definitions of personality traits; 3) an alternative model of personality traits, described as the sociogenomic model of personality traits, that can bridge the div...

The potential role of waste biomass in the future urban electricity system

OpenAIRE

Jiang, Yu; Werf, van der, Edwin; Ierland, van, Ekko C.; Keesman, Karel J.

2017-01-01

The share of intermittent renewable electricity (IRE) in the future urban electricity system is expected to increase significantly. Sufficient back-up capacity is needed in the period when IRE output is low. Bioenergy is both dispatchable and carbon-neutral, and can hence be a promising option to back up IRE. The objective of this study is to explore the potential of urban waste biomass in backing up IRE in an urban electricity system. An urban electricity system model is developed to project...

Assessing the Potential for Renewable Energy on Public Lands

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2003-02-01

This report represents an initial activity of the Bureau of Land Managements (BLM) proposed National Energy Policy Implementation Plan: identify and evaluate renewable energy resources on federal lands and any limitations on accessing them. Ultimately, BLM will prioritize land-use planning activities to increase industrys development of renewable energy resources. These resources include solar, biomass, geothermal, water, and wind energy. To accomplish this, BLM and the Department of Energys National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) established a partnership to conduct an assessment of renewable energy resources on BLM lands in the western United States. The objective of this collaboration was to identify BLM planning units in the western states with the highest potential for private-sector development of renewable resources. The assessment resulted in the following findings: (1) 63 BLM planning units in nine western states have high potential for one or more renewable energy technologies; and (2) 20 BLM planning units in seven western states have high potential for power production from three or more renewable energy sources. This assessment report provides BLM with information needed to prioritize land-use planning activities on the basis of potential for the development of energy from renewable resources.

Critical research needs for identifying future changes in Gulf coral reef ecosystems

KAUST Repository

Feary, David A.

2013-07-01

Expert opinion was assessed to identify current knowledge gaps in determining future changes in Arabian/Persian Gulf (thereafter \\'Gulf\\') coral reefs. Thirty-one participants submitted 71 research questions that were peer-assessed in terms of scientific importance (i.e., filled a knowledge gap and was a research priority) and efficiency in resource use (i.e., was highly feasible and ecologically broad). Ten research questions, in six major research areas, were highly important for both understanding Gulf coral reef ecosystems and also an efficient use of limited research resources. These questions mirrored global evaluations of the importance of understanding and evaluating biodiversity, determining the potential impacts of climate change, the role of anthropogenic impacts in structuring coral reef communities, and economically evaluating coral reef communities. These questions provide guidance for future research on coral reef ecosystems within the Gulf, and enhance the potential for assessment and management of future changes in this globally significant region. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Critical research needs for identifying future changes in Gulf coral reef ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Feary, David A.; Burt, John A.; Bauman, Andrew G.; Al Hazeem, Shaker; Abdel-Moati, Mohamed A.; Al-Khalifa, Khalifa A.; Anderson, Donald M.; Amos, Carl; Baker, Andrew; Bartholomew, Aaron; Bento, Rita; Cavalcante, Geórgenes H.; Chen, Chaolun Allen; Coles, Steve L.; Dab, Koosha; Fowler, Ashley M.; George, David; Grandcourt, Edwin; Hill, Ross; John, David M.; Jones, David A.; Keshavmurthy, Shashank; Mahmoud, Huda; Moradi Och Tapeh, Mahdi; Mostafavi, Pargol Ghavam; Naser, Humood; Pichon, Michel; Purkis, Sam; Riegl, Bernhard; Samimi-Namin, Kaveh; Sheppard, Charles; Vajed Samiei, Jahangir; Voolstra, Christian R.; Wiedenmann, Joerg

2014-01-01

Expert opinion was assessed to identify current knowledge gaps in determining future changes in Arabian/ Persian Gulf (thereafter ‘Gulf’) coral reefs. Thirty-one participants submitted 71 research questions that were peer-assessed in terms of scientific importance (i.e., filled a knowledge gap and was a research priority) and efficiency in resource use (i.e., was highly feasible and ecologically broad). Ten research questions, in six major research areas, were highly important for both understanding Gulf coral reef ecosystems and also an efficient use of limited research resources. These questions mirrored global evaluations of the importance of understanding and evaluating biodiversity, determining the potential impacts of climate change, the role of anthropogenic impacts in structuring coral reef communities, and economically evaluating coral reef communities. These questions provide guidance for future research on coral reef ecosystems within the Gulf, and enhance the potential for assessment and management of future changes in this globally significant region. PMID:23643407

Critical research needs for identifying future changes in Gulf coral reef ecosystems

KAUST Repository

Feary, David A.; Burt, John A.; Bauman, Andrew G.; Al Hazeem, Shaker; Abdel-Moati, Mohamed A R; Al-Khalifa, Khalifa A.; Anderson, Donald M.; Amos, Carl L.; Baker, Andrew C.; Bartholomew, Aaron; Bento, Rita; Cavalcante, Geó rgenes H.; Chen, Chaolun Allen; Coles, Steve L.; Dab, Koosha; Fowler, Ashley M.; George, David Glen; Grandcourt, Edwin Mark; Hill, Ross; John, David Michael; Jones, David Alan; Keshavmurthy, Shashank; Mahmoud, Huda M A; Moradi Och Tapeh, Mahdi; Mostafavi, Pargol Ghavam; Naser, Humood A.; Pichon, Michel; Purkis, Sam J.; Riegl, Bernhard M.; Samimi-Namin, Kaveh; Sheppard, Charles R C; Vajed Samiei, Jahangir; Voolstra, Christian R.; Wiedenmann, Jö rg

2013-01-01

Expert opinion was assessed to identify current knowledge gaps in determining future changes in Arabian/Persian Gulf (thereafter 'Gulf') coral reefs. Thirty-one participants submitted 71 research questions that were peer-assessed in terms of scientific importance (i.e., filled a knowledge gap and was a research priority) and efficiency in resource use (i.e., was highly feasible and ecologically broad). Ten research questions, in six major research areas, were highly important for both understanding Gulf coral reef ecosystems and also an efficient use of limited research resources. These questions mirrored global evaluations of the importance of understanding and evaluating biodiversity, determining the potential impacts of climate change, the role of anthropogenic impacts in structuring coral reef communities, and economically evaluating coral reef communities. These questions provide guidance for future research on coral reef ecosystems within the Gulf, and enhance the potential for assessment and management of future changes in this globally significant region. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Assessment of Global Wind Energy Resource Utilization Potential

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, M.; He, B.; Guan, Y.; Zhang, H.; Song, S.

2017-09-01

Development of wind energy resource (WER) is a key to deal with climate change and energy structure adjustment. A crucial issue is to obtain the distribution and variability of WER, and mine the suitable location to exploit it. In this paper, a multicriteria evaluation (MCE) model is constructed by integrating resource richness and stability, utilization value and trend of resource, natural environment with weights. The global resource richness is assessed through wind power density (WPD) and multi-level wind speed. The utilizable value of resource is assessed by the frequency of effective wind. The resource stability is assessed by the coefficient of variation of WPD and the frequency of prevailing wind direction. Regression slope of long time series WPD is used to assess the trend of WER. All of the resource evaluation indicators are derived from the atmospheric reanalysis data ERA-Interim with spatial resolution 0.125°. The natural environment factors mainly refer to slope and land-use suitability, which are derived from multi-resolution terrain elevation data 2010 (GMTED 2010) and GlobalCover2009. Besides, the global WER utilization potential map is produced, which shows most high potential regions are located in north of Africa. Additionally, by verifying that 22.22 % and 48.8 9% operational wind farms fall on medium-high and high potential regions respectively, the result can provide a basis for the macroscopic siting of wind farm.

Magnetic resonance imaging of the cardiovascular system: present state of the art and future potential

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacobson, H.G.

1988-01-01

State-of-the-art magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) generates high-resolution images of the cardiovascular system. Conventional MRI techniques provide images in six to ten minutes per tomographic slice. New strategies have substantially improved the speed of imaging. The technology is relatively expensive, and its cost-effectiveness remains to be defined in relation to other effective, less expensive, and noninvasive technologies, such as echocardiography and nuclear medicine. The ultimate role of MRI will depend on several factors, including the development of specific applications such as (1) noninvasive angiography, especially of the coronary arteries;(2) noninvasive, high-resolution assessment of regional myocardial blood flow distribution (e.g., using paramagnetic contrast agents); (3) characterization of myocardial diseases using proton-relaxation property changes; and (4) evaluation of in vivo myocardial biochemistry. The three-dimensional imaging capability and the ability to image cardiovascular structures without contrast material give MRI a potential advantage over existing noninvasive diagnostic imaging techniques. This report analyzes current applications of MRI to the cardiovascular system and speculates on their future

Assessment of innovative potential of the region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. S. Sazonova

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The implementation of innovative-oriented processes of transformation of the Russian economy at the current stage of development requires the formation of regional innovation systems that predetermine the growing competitiveness of the national economy in the future. The optimal functioning of the innovation system of the region as the most important link in the national innovation system depends on the availability, condition and level of development of its innovative potential, which in turn determines the economic growth of not only a single region, but the country as a whole. The essence and structure of innovative potential of organizational systems are considered in the article. The main approaches to the definition of the concept of innovative potential and the definition of the content of the concept are analyzed. An approach to the formation of an integrated indicator is proposed. The integrated indicator of the region's innovative potential was calculated using the area diagram method. The values of the innovation potential for the regions of the Central Federal District were calculated and the ranking of the regions was performed in accordance with the final value. Conclusion. To build a model for innovative development of the region, it is necessary to analyze the components of the innovation potential, its evaluation, and a possible development forecast for the coming years. Voronezh, Tula and Kostroma and Belgorod regions have high rates for the Central Federal District. Ryazan, Smolensk and Kostroma oblasts have rather low indicators in comparison with other regions.

Eco-efficient production of spring barley in a changed climate: A Life Cycle Assessment including primary data from future climate scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Niero, Monia; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo

2015-01-01

The paper has two main objectives: (i) to assess the eco-efficiency of spring barley cultivation for malting in Denmark in a future changed climate (700 ppm [CO2] and +5 °C) through Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and (ii) to compare alternative future cultivation scenarios, both excluding and includ......The paper has two main objectives: (i) to assess the eco-efficiency of spring barley cultivation for malting in Denmark in a future changed climate (700 ppm [CO2] and +5 °C) through Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and (ii) to compare alternative future cultivation scenarios, both excluding...

Proprioception: where are we now? A commentary on clinical assessment, changes across the life course, functional implications and future interventions.

Science.gov (United States)

Suetterlin, Karen Joan; Sayer, Avan Aihie

2014-05-01

Proprioception, the sense of where one is in space, is essential for effective interaction with the environment. A lack of or reduction in proprioceptive acuity has been directly correlated with falls and with reduced functional independence in older people. Proprioceptive losses have also been shown to negatively correlate with functional recovery post stroke and play a significant role in other conditions such as Parkinson's disease. However, despite its central importance to many geriatric syndromes, the clinical assessment of proprioception has remained remarkably static. We look at approaches to the clinical assessment of proprioception, changes in proprioception across the life course, functional implications of proprioception in health and disease and the potential for targeted interventions in the future such as joint taping, and proprioception-specific rehabilitation and footwear.

Are all pharmacy staff interested in potential future roles?

Science.gov (United States)

Braund, Rhiannon; Chesney, Kate Marie; Keast, Emilia Paulina; Ng, Lye Jinn; Qi, Sarah; Samaranayaka, Sashika; Wang, Eddie

2012-12-01

To determine the current perceived roles and responsibilities of pharmacy staff in community pharmacies in New Zealand, and attitudes to proposed new advanced roles for pharmacy staff. Structured interviews were conducted within five community pharmacies, including at least two pharmacists, two dispensary staff and two pharmacy assistants. The interviews were structured to determine previous experience, current roles and responsibilities and the perceived future roles of pharmacy staff within a community pharmacy setting. Thematic analysis from 27 interviews identified key findings. Current roles appeared to be fairly well defined. Pharmacy assistants listed key roles as customer interactions and sales focus, noting that the dispensary was outside their area of responsibility. Technicians identified their role as being dispensary focused while pharmacists saw their role as the 'final check' to ensure accuracy as well as providing dispensing, counselling and managerial roles. With potential future roles, the assistants were less interested than the other groups, citing contentment with current situation and training as a barrier. Some technicians indicated an interest in furthering their roles, but many were reluctant and saw that additional training was too time consuming. Whilst pharmacists appeared to be interested in further scopes of practice, they appeared more reluctant to do this at the expense of handing dispensing responsibility to a non-pharmacist. Whilst there is a push for pharmacists to provide advanced clinical services, it is important to acknowledge that many staff working within community pharmacies are satisfied with their current role. © 2012 The Authors. IJPP © 2012 Royal Pharmaceutical Society.

Assessment of bioenergy potential in Sicily: A GIS-based support methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beccali, Marco; D'Alberti, Vincenzo; Franzitta, Vincenzo; Columba, Pietro

2009-01-01

A Geographical Information System (GIS) supported methodology has been developed in order to assess the technical and economic potential of biomass exploitation for energy production in Sicily. The methodology was based on the use of agricultural, economic, climatic, and infrastructural data in a GIS. Data about land use, transportation facilities, urban cartography, regional territorial planning, terrain digital model, lithology, climatic types, and civil and industrial users have been stored in the GIS to define potential areas for gathering the residues coming from the pruning of olive groves, vineyards, and other agricultural crops, and to assess biomass available for energy cultivation. Further, it was possible to assess the potential of biodiesel production, supposing the cultivation of rapeseed in arable crop areas. For the biomass used for direct combustion purposes, the economic availability has been assessed assuming a price of the biomass and comparing it with other fuels. This assessment has shown the strong competitiveness of firewood in comparison with traditional fossil fuels when the collection system is implemented in an efficient way. Moreover, the economic potential of biodiesel was assessed considering the on-going financial regime for fuel. At the same time, the study has shown a significant competitiveness of the finished biomass (pellets), and good potential for a long-term development of this market. An important result was the determination of biofuel production potential in Sicily. An outcome of the study was to show the opportunities stemming from the harmonisation of Energy Policy with the Waste Management System and Rural Development Plan. (author)

Miscellaneous conditions and future potential

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berquist, T.H.; Ehman, R.L.; Richardson, M.L.; Helms, C.A.

1987-01-01

The previous chapters have discussed basic principles and the types of musculoskeletal pathology that have been most extensively studied with magnetic resonance (MR) techniques. MR has also demonstrated significant potential in other areas, but experience is more limited. Despite this limited experience, the potential application of MR imaging in these areas is discussed in this paper

Transportation Energy Futures Series. Potential for Energy Efficiency Improvement Beyond the Light-Duty-Vehicle Sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vyas, A. D. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Patel, D. M. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Bertram, K. M. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

2013-02-01

Considerable research has focused on energy efficiency and fuel substitution options for light-duty vehicles, while much less attention has been given to medium- and heavy-duty trucks, buses, aircraft, marine vessels, trains, pipeline, and off-road equipment. This report brings together the salient findings from an extensive review of literature on future energy efficiency options for these non-light-duty modes. Projected activity increases to 2050 are combined with forecasts of overall fuel efficiency improvement potential to estimate the future total petroleum and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to current levels. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Potential for Energy Efficiency Improvement Beyond the Light-Duty-Vehicle Sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vyas, A. D.; Patel, D. M.; Bertram, K. M.

2013-03-01

Considerable research has focused on energy efficiency and fuel substitution options for light-duty vehicles, while much less attention has been given to medium- and heavy-duty trucks, buses, aircraft, marine vessels, trains, pipeline, and off-road equipment. This report brings together the salient findings from an extensive review of literature on future energy efficiency options for these non-light-duty modes. Projected activity increases to 2050 are combined with forecasts of overall fuel efficiency improvement potential to estimate the future total petroleum and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to current levels. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

THE ASSESSMENT OF CYBERBULLYING: THE PRESENT SITUATION AND FUTURE CHALLENGE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Beatriz Lucas-Molina

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In the last decade there has been a significant increase in the interest of the educational and scientific community on cyberbullying, a new form of peer abuse and intimidation. Despite the widespread proliferation of studies and assessment tools on the phenomenon, there are still major conceptual and methodological gaps. This paper offers a comprehensive and updated review of the results of research on the definition of the construct, its prevalence and its impact on the people involved. Finally, it focuses specifically on the assessment of the construct and provides a brief review of the general and psychometric characteristics of the instruments used in some of the most relevant national and international studies conducted on the subject. This work places special emphasis on the present and future challenges and concludes with a number of general recommendations intended to guide the correct selection and/or construction of assessment instruments in this field of study.

Assessing future economic impacts of acidic deposition on the recreational fishery of eastern Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-01-01

A study was carried out to assess the socio-economic impacts and net economic value effects related to potential reduction in acidic deposition on the sports fishery of eastern Canada. Impacts and net economic effects that would have occurred from 1950 to 1985 if emission/deposition controls were in place are measured. Impacts and net economic effects that will occur from 1986 to 2021 if controls are put in place in the future are also measured. The study incorporated the latest data describing the relationship of acidic deposition to lake pH levels and ultimate impact on fish survival, and applies a spatial analysis system to model changes in sport fish availability with respect to pH changes and fish survival responses. It was found that if emission controls were put in place beginning in 1950 the Canadian economy would have accrued $4.3 billion in net economic value from 1950 to 1985 inclusive. The 1986 value of the historical stream of losses that occurred because controls were not put in place is $24 billion assuming a 10% rate of return. If controls were put in place in the future, net economic value to Canada due to increased angler activity would be $4.2 billion for the period 1986-2021. The value in 1986 would be $925 million. 9 figs., 34 tabs

The potential for biological structure determination with pulsed neutrons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilson, C.C.

1994-01-01

The potential of pulsed neutron diffraction in structural determination of biological materials is discussed. The problems and potential solutions in this area are outlined, with reference to both current and future sources and instrumentation. The importance of developing instrumentation on pulsed sources in emphasized, with reference to the likelihood of future expansion in this area. The possibilities and limitations of single crystal, fiber and powder diffraction in this area are assessed

The potential for biological structure determination with pulsed neutrons

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilson, C.C. [CLRC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton Didcot Oxon (United Kingdom)

1994-12-31

The potential of pulsed neutron diffraction in structural determination of biological materials is discussed. The problems and potential solutions in this area are outlined, with reference to both current and future sources and instrumentation. The importance of developing instrumentation on pulsed sources in emphasized, with reference to the likelihood of future expansion in this area. The possibilities and limitations of single crystal, fiber and powder diffraction in this area are assessed.

The potential impact of invasive woody oil plants on protected areas in China under future climate conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, Guanghui; Yang, Jun; Lu, Siran; Huang, Conghong; Jin, Jing; Jiang, Peng; Yan, Pengbo

2018-01-18

Biodiesel produced from woody oil plants is considered a green substitute for fossil fuels. However, a potential negative impact of growing woody oil plants on a large scale is the introduction of highly invasive species into susceptible regions. In this study, we examined the potential invasion risk of woody oil plants in China's protected areas under future climate conditions. We simulated the current and future potential distributions of three invasive woody oil plants, Jatropha curcas, Ricinus communis, and Aleurites moluccana, under two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) up to 2050 using species distribution models. Protected areas in China that will become susceptible to these species were then identified using a spatial overlay analysis. Our results showed that by 2050, 26 and 41 protected areas would be threatened by these invasive woody oil plants under scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. A total of 10 unique forest ecosystems and 17 rare plant species could be potentially affected. We recommend that the invasive potential of woody oil plants be fully accounted for when developing forest-based biodiesel, especially around protected areas.

Estimates of the potential for energy conservation in the Chinese steel industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin Boqiang; Wu Ya; Zhang Li

2011-01-01

The study evaluates the energy saving potential of the Chinese steel industry by studying its potential future energy efficiency gap. In order to predict the future energy efficiency gap, a multivariate regression model combined with risk analysis is developed to estimate future energy intensity of China's steel industry. It is found that R and D intensity, energy saving investment, labor productivity and industry concentration are all important variables that affect energy intensity. We assess the possible measures as to how China's steel industry can narrow the energy efficiency gap with Japan by means of scenario analysis. Using Japan's current energy efficiency level as baseline, the energy saving potential of China's steel industry is more than 200 million ton coal equivalent in 2008, and it would fall to zero in 2020. However, if greater efforts were made to conserve energy, it would be possible to narrow down the energy efficiency gap between China and Japan by around 2015. Finally, using the results of the scenario analysis, future policy priorities for energy conservation in China's steel industry are assessed in this paper. - Highlights: → The energy saving potential of the Chinese steel industry is evaluated. → A multivariate regression model combined with risk analysis is developed. → R and D, energy saving investment, labor, and structure affect energy intensity.→ The energy saving potential of China's steel industry would fall to zero in 2020.→ Future policy for energy conservation in China's steel industry are assessed.

Developing TheoreticalMethodological Approaches to Assessment of Export Potential of Ukrainian Enterprises

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matyushenko Igor Yu.

2016-02-01

Full Text Available The article is aimed at studying the existing theoretical-methodological approaches to the analysis and assessment of export potential. The opinions by scientists regarding the disclosure of the categorial content of the concept of «export potential» have been considered, an own definition of the indicated economic category has been suggested. The main types of analytical procedures for assessment have been classified, some authorial methodical approaches to determine the level of export potential have been analyzed. The export potential of a hypothetical enterprise has been calculated by the selected methodologies of assessment. The urgency of improving and refining existing methods to implement more detailed and quantitative analysis has been substantiated. It has been suggested to implement a prognosis assessment of export potential of enterprises by combining the results of several methodologies in the aggregate indicator of export potential efficiency. A prognosis model for the dynamics of export potential of a hypothetical enterprise has been built, value of the aggregate indicator has been calculated on the basis of three selected valuation methodologies.

In search of future earths: assessing the possibility of finding Earth analogues in the later stages of their habitable lifetimes.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Malley-James, Jack T; Greaves, Jane S; Raven, John A; Cockell, Charles S

2015-05-01

Earth will become uninhabitable within 2-3 Gyr as a result of the increasing luminosity of the Sun changing the boundaries of the habitable zone (HZ). Predictions about the future of habitable conditions on Earth include declining species diversity and habitat extent, ocean loss, and changes to geochemical cycles. Testing these predictions is difficult, but the discovery of a planet that is an analogue to future Earth could provide the means to test them. This planet would need to have an Earth-like biosphere history and to be approaching the inner edge of the HZ at present. Here, we assess the possibility of finding such a planet and discuss the benefits of analyzing older Earths. Finding an old-Earth analogue in nearby star systems would be ideal, because this would allow for atmospheric characterization. Hence, as an illustrative example, G stars within 10 pc of the Sun are assessed as potential old-Earth-analog hosts. Six of these represent good potential hosts. For each system, a hypothetical Earth analogue is placed at locations within the continuously habitable zone (CHZ) that would allow enough time for Earth-like biosphere development. Surface temperature evolution over the host star's main sequence lifetime (assessed by using a simple climate model) is used to determine whether the planet would be in the right stage of its late-habitable lifetime to exhibit detectable biosignatures. The best candidate, in terms of the chances of planet formation in the CHZ and of biosignature detection, is 61 Virginis. However, planet formation studies suggest that only a small fraction (0.36%) of G stars in the solar neighborhood could host an old-Earth analogue. If the development of Earth-like biospheres is rare, requiring a sequence of low-probability events to occur, biosphere evolution models suggest they are rarer still, with only thousands being present in the Galaxy as a whole.

Assessing the proarrhythmic potential of drugs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thomsen, Morten Bækgaard; Matz, Jørgen; Volders, Paul G A

2006-01-01

Torsades de pointes (TdP) is a potentially lethal cardiac arrhythmia that can occur as an unwanted adverse effect of various pharmacological therapies. Before a drug is approved for marketing, its effects on cardiac repolarisation are examined clinically and experimentally. This paper expresses...... the opinion that effects on repolarisation duration cannot directly be translated to risk of proarrhythmia. Current safety assessments of drugs only involve repolarisation assays, however the proarrhythmic profile can only be determined in the predisposed model. The availability of these proarrhythmic animal...... surrogate parameters possessing predictive power of TdP arrhythmia are reviewed. As these parameters are not developed to finalisation, any meaningful study of the proarrhythmic potential of a new drug will include evaluation in an integrated model of TdP arrhythmia....

Contents of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in the safety evaluation of a repository for spent fuels; Innehaallet i en strategi foer myndighetsbedoemning av framtida maenskligt handlande vid vaerdering av saekerheten for slutfoervar

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilmot, R.D.; Wickham, S.M.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd., Oakham (United Kingdom)

2001-08-01

The objective of this report is to discuss issues that should be considered in the development of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in any forthcoming license application for a deep repository for spent fuel in Sweden and for sites of other repositories. The report comprises an outline of key issues concerning the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, reviews of regulatory developments, recent safety assessments and supporting studies, and international initiatives on the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, and the principal elements of a regulatory strategy. Performance assessments (PAs) are generally accepted as providing illustrations of system performance under given sets of assumptions. The results of PAs are clearer and easier to understand if certain large uncertainties are accounted for by determining performance under several different sets of assumptions or scenarios, each of which defines a possible evolution of the disposal system. A number of assumptions can be made that would restrict the scope of an assessment without reducing the credibility of the corresponding safety case. Reducing speculation about technological development, by assuming that the techniques used in future human activities are similar to those currently in use in the region or at similar sites, will simplify the assessment. A distinction is generally made between inadvertent and intentional intrusion, with intentional activities excluded because society cannot protect future populations from their own actions if they understand the potential consequences. A division of human activities into 'recent and ongoing' and 'future' activities considers not only the timing of the activities but also the degree of control or influence that can be imposed on them. Recent and ongoing human activities are those that affect an area beyond the immediate vicinity of the disposal facility and which neither the

Assessing the Future of Distributed Wind: Opportunities for Behind-the-Meter Projects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Preus, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Baring-Gould, Ian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2016-11-01

Wind power is one of the fastest growing sources of new electricity generation in the United States. Cumulative installed capacity was more than 74,000 megawatts (MW) at year-end 2015 and wind power supplied 4.7% of total 2015 U.S. electricity generation. Despite the growth of the wind power industry, the distributed wind market has remained limited. Cumulative installations of distributed wind through 2015 totaled 934 MW. This first-of-a-kind exploratory analysis characterizes the future opportunity for behind-the-meter distributed wind, serving primarily rural or suburban homes, farms, and manufacturing facilities. This work focuses only on the grid-connected, behind-the-meter subset of the broader distributed wind market. We estimate this segment to be approximately half of the 934 MW of total installed distributed wind capacity at year-end 2015. Potential from other distributed wind market segments including systems installed in front of the meter (e.g., community wind) and in remote, off-grid locations is not assessed in this analysis and therefore, would be additive to results presented here. These other distributed wind market segments are not considered in this initial effort because of their relatively unique economic and market attributes.

Future Directions in Assessment: Influences of Standards and Implications for Language Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Troy L.; Malone, Margaret E.; Winke, Paula

2018-01-01

As "Foreign Language Annals" concludes its 50th anniversary, it is fitting to review the past and peer into the future of standards-based education and assessment. Standards are a common yardstick used by educators and researchers as a powerful framework for conceptualizing teaching and measuring learner success. The impact of standards…

Future aridity under conditions of global climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Asadi Zarch, Mohammad Amin; Sivakumar, Bellie; Malekinezhad, Hossein; Sharma, Ashish

2017-11-01

Global climate change is anticipated to cause some major changes in hydroclimatic conditions around the world. As aridity is a reliable indicator of potential available water, assessment of its changes under future climatic conditions is important for proper management of water. This study employs the UNESCO aridity/humidity index, which is a derivative of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), for assessment of aridity. Historical (1901-2005) simulations and future (2006-2100) projections of 22 global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are studied. The Nested Bias Correction (NBC) approach is used to correct possible biases of precipitation (simulated directly by the GCMs) and PET (estimated by applying FAO56-Penman-Monteith model on simulated parameters of the GCMs). To detect future aridity changes, the areal extents of the aridity zones in the past and future periods as well as through four sub-periods (2006-2025, 2026-2050, 2051-2075, and 2076-2100) of the future are compared. The results indicate that changes in climate will alter the areal extents of aridity zones in the future. In general, from the first sub-period towards the last one, the area covered by hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, and sub-humid zones will increase (by 7.46%, 7.01%, 5.80%, and 2.78%, respectively), while the area of the humid regions will decrease (by 4.76%), suggesting that there will be less water over the global land area in the future. To understand the cause of these changes, precipitation and PET are also separately assumed to be stationary throughout the four future sub-periods and the resulting aridity changes are then analyzed. The results reveal that the aridity changes are mostly caused by the positive PET trends, even though the slight precipitation increase lessens the magnitude of the changes.

ASSESSMENT OF QUALITY OF LIFE: PRESENT AND FUTURE METHODOLOGICAL CHALLENGES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Isabel Benítez

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The growing importance of quality of life in diverse domains, such as health, school performance and social participation, has led to the development of new conceptualisations and assessments of the construct. This diversity of perspectives brings about many benefits, but it also creates an obstacle for the formulation of a single unifying definition of the construct and, therefore, an agreed instrument or assessment framework. The aim of this study is to discuss the current methodological challenges in the measurement of quality of life. Firstly, we provide a brief description of the construct as defined in various areas, then we examine the new methodological developments and different applications. We also present an overview of the different possibilities for future developments in defining and measuring quality of life in national and international studies.

SIMULATION OF NET INFILTRATION FOR MODERN AND POTENTIAL FUTURE CLIMATES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

J.A. Heveal

2000-06-16

This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) describes enhancements made to the infiltration model documented in Flint et al. (1996) and documents an analysis using the enhanced model to generate spatial and temporal distributions over a model domain encompassing the Yucca Mountain site, Nevada. Net infiltration is the component of infiltrated precipitation, snowmelt, or surface water run-on that has percolated below the zone of evapotranspiration as defined by the depth of the effective root zone, the average depth below the ground surface (at a given location) from which water is removed by evapotranspiration. The estimates of net infiltration are used for defining the upper boundary condition for the site-scale 3-dimensional Unsaturated-Zone Ground Water Flow and Transport (UZ flow and transport) Model (CRWMS M&O 2000a). The UZ flow and transport model is one of several process models abstracted by the Total System Performance Assessment model to evaluate expected performance of the potential repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, in terms of radionuclide transport (CRWMS M&O 1998). The net-infiltration model is important for assessing potential repository-system performance because output from this model provides the upper boundary condition for the UZ flow and transport model that is used to generate flow fields for evaluating potential radionuclide transport through the unsaturated zone. Estimates of net infiltration are provided as raster-based, 2-dimensional grids of spatially distributed, time-averaged rates for three different climate stages estimated as likely conditions for the next 10,000 years beyond the present. Each climate stage is represented using a lower bound, a mean, and an upper bound climate and corresponding net-infiltration scenario for representing uncertainty in the characterization of daily climate conditions for each climate stage, as well as potential climate variability within each climate stage. The set of nine raster grid maps provide spatially

SIMULATION OF NET INFILTRATION FOR MODERN AND POTENTIAL FUTURE CLIMATES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

J.A. Heveal

2000-01-01

This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) describes enhancements made to the infiltration model documented in Flint et al. (1996) and documents an analysis using the enhanced model to generate spatial and temporal distributions over a model domain encompassing the Yucca Mountain site, Nevada. Net infiltration is the component of infiltrated precipitation, snowmelt, or surface water run-on that has percolated below the zone of evapotranspiration as defined by the depth of the effective root zone, the average depth below the ground surface (at a given location) from which water is removed by evapotranspiration. The estimates of net infiltration are used for defining the upper boundary condition for the site-scale 3-dimensional Unsaturated-Zone Ground Water Flow and Transport (UZ flow and transport) Model (CRWMS M and O 2000a). The UZ flow and transport model is one of several process models abstracted by the Total System Performance Assessment model to evaluate expected performance of the potential repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, in terms of radionuclide transport (CRWMS M and O 1998). The net-infiltration model is important for assessing potential repository-system performance because output from this model provides the upper boundary condition for the UZ flow and transport model that is used to generate flow fields for evaluating potential radionuclide transport through the unsaturated zone. Estimates of net infiltration are provided as raster-based, 2-dimensional grids of spatially distributed, time-averaged rates for three different climate stages estimated as likely conditions for the next 10,000 years beyond the present. Each climate stage is represented using a lower bound, a mean, and an upper bound climate and corresponding net-infiltration scenario for representing uncertainty in the characterization of daily climate conditions for each climate stage, as well as potential climate variability within each climate stage. The set of nine raster grid maps provide

Biocatalyzed processes for production of commodity chemicals: Assessment of future research advances for N-butanol production

Science.gov (United States)

Ingham, J. D.

1984-01-01

This report is a summary of assessments by Chem Systems Inc. and a further evaluation of the impacts of research advances on energy efficiency and the potential for future industrial production of acetone-butanol-ethanol (ABE) solvents and other products by biocatalyzed processes. Brief discussions of each of the assessments made by CSI, followed by estimates of minimum projected energy consumption and costs for production of solvents by ABE biocatalyzed processes are included. These assessments and further advances discussed in this report show that substantial decreases in energy consumption and costs are possible on the basis of specific research advances; therefore, it appears that a biocatalyzed process for ABE can be developed that will be competitive with conventional petrochemical processes for production of n-butanol and acetone. (In this work, the ABE process was selected and utilized only as an example for methodology development; other possible bioprocesses for production of commodity chemicals are not intended to be excluded.) It has been estimated that process energy consumption can be decreased by 50%, with a corresponding cost reduction of 15-30% (in comparison with a conventional petrochemical process) by increasing microorganism tolerance to n-butanol and efficient recovery of product solvents from the vapor phase.

The environmental performance of current and future passenger vehicles: Life cycle assessment based on a novel scenario analysis framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bauer, Christian; Hofer, Johannes; Althaus, Hans-Jörg; Del Duce, Andrea; Simons, Andrew

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We perform Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of current and future passenger vehicles. • We include gasoline, diesel and natural gas as well as battery and fuel cell cars. • An integrated vehicle simulation framework guarantees consistency. • Only electric cars with “clean” electricity and H_2 allow for pollution mitigation. • Complete LCA is mandatory for environmental evaluation of vehicle technologies. - Abstract: This paper contains an evaluation of the environmental performance of a comprehensive set of current and future mid-size passenger vehicles. We present a comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) based on a novel integrated vehicle simulation framework, which allows for consistency in vehicle parameter settings and consideration of future technological progress. Conventional and hybrid gasoline, diesel and natural gas cars as well as battery and fuel cell electric vehicles (BEV and FCV) are analyzed, taking into account electricity and hydrogen production chains from fossil, nuclear and renewable energy resources. Our results show that a substantial mitigation of climate change can be obtained with electric passenger vehicles, provided that non-fossil energy resources are used for electricity and hydrogen production. However, in terms of other environmental burdens such as acidification, particulate matter formation, and toxicity, BEV may in some cases and FCV are likely to perform worse than modern fossil fueled cars as a consequence of emissions along vehicle and fuel production chains. Therefore, the electrification of road transportation should be accompanied by an integration of life cycle management in vehicle manufacturing chains as well as energy and transport policies in order to counter potential environmental drawbacks.

Improving the Assessment of Regional Economic Potential (on Example of Rostov Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nikolai A. Kurianov

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The article discusses a number of problematic issues concerning the possibility of improving existing approaches to assessing regional economic potential. Based on the analysis of existing approaches it is concluded that presence of a number of inherent common disadvantages, which include the exclusion of complex assessment elements of intangible resources, isolation from development goals in the region, ignoring the possibility of incremental reserves development static evaluation results. To overcome these ambiguities the authors' approach to improving assessment procedures based on the allocation of the essential nature of the category «regional economic potential», which unites, on the one hand, the resources available for regional development (actual potential, and on the other hand, resources in respect of which the region has the opportunity to attract them as a tool for further development of (stochastic potential. As the degree of implementation of this option is determined by the quality of regional governance, the most important element of the economic potential of the region is also an effective mechanism for management of existing and potential resources of various types. The practical implementation of the proposed methodology suppose, for example, estimate the economic potential of the Rostov region. At the first stage of the evaluation determine the most important elements of this potential and their ranking, on the second – assessment of the status of these elements from the point of view of their availability, ability to attract and management efficiency, and the third – the normalized assessment of regional economic potential.

Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Akiko Hirata

Full Text Available Pine wilt disease (PWD constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22. For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 and two time periods (2050s and 2070s. We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area. Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD.

Intellectual Assessment of Children and Youth in Japan: Past, Present, and Future

Science.gov (United States)

Ishikuma, Toshinori; Matsuda, Osamu; Fujita, Kazuhiro; Ueno, Kazuhiko

2016-01-01

This article briefly reviews the history of intellectual assessment with children and youth in Japan, as well as current practices and future directions. The history of intelligence test use in Japan began in the early 20th century. Since the 21st century, three major intelligence tests, namely, the Wechsler Intelligence Scales, the Kaufman…

Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France

OpenAIRE

Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J. J.; Pag?, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A.

2016-01-01

Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by takin...

Austria's wind energy potential – A participatory modeling approach to assess socio-political and market acceptance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Höltinger, Stefan; Salak, Boris; Schauppenlehner, Thomas; Scherhaufer, Patrick; Schmidt, Johannes

2016-01-01

Techno-economic assessments confirm the potential of wind energy to contribute to a low carbon bioeconomy. The increasing diffusion of wind energy, however, has turned wind energy acceptance into a significant barrier with respect to the deployment of wind turbines. This article assesses whether, and at what cost, Austrian renewable energy targets can be met under different expansion scenarios considering the socio-political and market acceptance of wind energy. Land-use scenarios have been defined in a participatory modeling approach with stakeholders from various interest groups. We calculated the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for all of the potential wind turbine sites, which we used to generate wind energy supply curves. The results show that wind energy production could be expanded to 20% of the final end energy demand in three out of four scenarios. However, more restrictive criteria increase LCOE by up to 20%. In contrast to common views that see local opposition against wind projects as the main barrier for wind power expansion, our participatory modeling approach indicates that even on the level of key stakeholders, the future possible contribution of wind energy to Austrian renewable energy targets reaches from almost no further expansion to very high shares of wind energy. - Highlights: • Including social barriers could reduce Austria’s wind potential from 92.78 to 3.89 TWh • Costs for attaining a 20% wind energy share vary by 20% between the scenarios • Socially acceptable wind area potential ranges from 0.1 to 3.9% of Austria’s total area • Excluding forest areas lowers the maximum wind energy potential by 45%

The Future Potential of Internet of Things

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aelita Skaržauskienė

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: To define the Internet of things and to analyze it as a background for the internet of services. Design/methodology/approach: The article discusses potential possibilities and problematic issues concerning the Internet of things (IoT and Internet of services (IoS. The debates concerning IoT and its possible application fields have continued for more than ten years. The technological background is there and the fields of application are broad. However, there is still a lack of understanding about the possible benefits that technology could give to various bodies if applied correctly. This article is based on comparison and analysis of scientific articles, research papers and case studies related to the potential for IoT and its implementation in IoS. Theoretical findings: IoT is a logical evolutionary step for the internet. Despite the technological background, the concept of objects which are aware of their surroundings, allow to manipulate them by defining different rule patterns and ensuring interaction possibilities with other objects or human beings. The necessity for web-based services is increasing along with the technological gadgets which support them. Applying things, which are connected in a network, could revolutionize many industry and service sectors and create new service provision and administration methods based on information technology. However, there are many problematic issues and research challenges related to the IoT. Few of the most significant are related to standardization of technology, legal regulation and ethical aspects concerning the IoT technology. Research limitations/implications: The IoT is a popular trend promoted by the business sector and governmental bodies. There are few comprehensive studies and projects which talk about the benefits that business and society could gain from the IoT. There is a lot less information about the possible risk and problematic aspects, and a lack of agreements between

The potential benefit of pre-operative assessment of amputation ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The potential benefit of pre-operative assessment of amputation wound healing potential in peripheral vascular disease. M. Mars, R. P. Mills, J. V. Robbs. Abstract. Choosing the most distal amputation level that will heal is difficult in patients with peripheral vascular disease. From 1984 to 1988,965 patients underwent 1 563 ...

The future of anticoagulation management in atrial fibrillation in Europe: An assessment of today's challenges with recommendations for the future.

Science.gov (United States)

Lichten, Catherine A; Castle-Clarke, Sophie; Manville, Catriona; Horvath, Veronika; Robin, Enora; Krapels, Joachim; Parks, Sarah; Sim, Megan; van Zijverden, Olga; Chataway, Joanna

2015-11-30

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common type of cardiac arrhythmia, affecting approximately 1-2 per cent of the population worldwide. Those who suffer from AF have a five times higher risk of stroke. AF prevalence increases with age and it affects roughly 18 per cent of the population over 85. Consequently, as populations age, AF is becoming an increasingly significant public health issue. Over recent years there have been developments in treatment and management options, both for treating the arrhythmia directly, and assessing and reducing the risk of AF-related stroke, but there is a need to ensure that available knowledge is applied optimally to benefit patients so that opportunities to prevent AF-related stroke are not missed. The aims of this project were to assess the current landscape and explore the direction of future developments in AF management in Europe, with a focus on the use of anticoagulants in the prevention of AF-related stroke. Through rapid evidence assessment, key informant interviews, PESTLE analysis and the development and exploration of future scenarios, we have developed sets of shorter- and longer-term recommendations for improving AF-related patient outcomes. The short-term recommendations are: i) improve AF awareness among the public and policymakers; ii) support education about AF management for healthcare professionals and patients; and iii) maintain engagement in AF-related research across the health services.

Hydropower Production in Future Climate Scenarios; the Case for the Zambezi River

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Byman H. Hamududu

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Climate change remains a threat to water resources projects in southern Africa where impacts resulting from changes in climate are projected to be negative and worse than in most other regions of the world. This work presents an assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources and hydropower production potential in the Zambezi River Basin. Future climate scenarios projected through the five General Circulation Model (GCM outputs are used as input in the impact assessment. The future projected climate scenarios are downscaled to find local and regional changes, and used in the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on water resources in the river basin. According to the simulations, air temperature and potential evaporation are projected to increase, while rainfall is projected to decrease. The Zambezi hydropower system is likely to be affected negatively as a result of future climate changes. Increasing air temperature leading to increased evaporation, and reduced rainfall, both contribute to a decrease in resulting river flows and increased reservoir evaporation. Consequently, the decrease in water resources will lead to decreased hydropower production potential, by 9% in 2020s, 18% in 2050s and 28% in 2080s in the hydropower system, for a medium emission scenario, A1B.

Assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin.

Science.gov (United States)

Abah, Roland Clement; Petja, Brilliant Mareme

2016-12-01

Agriculture in the Lower Benue River Basin faces several challenges which threaten the future of agricultural development. This study was an assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin. Through analysis of physical and socioeconomic parameters, the study adapted an impact assessment model to rank potential impacts on agricultural development in the study area. Rainfall intensity seemed to be increasing with a gradual reduction in the number of rainy days. The average discharge at Makurdi hydrological station was 3468.24 cubic metres per second (m 3  s -1 ), and the highest peak flow discharge was 16,400 m 3  s -1 . The daily maximum temperature and annual temperature averages for the study area are gradually rising leading to increased heat stress. Physical and chemical analyses showed that the soils are moderately fertile but require effective application of inorganic and organic fertilisers. The main occupational activities in the study area are agricultural based. The identified potential impacts of climate change on agriculture were categorised under atmospheric carbon dioxides and oxides, rainfall intensity, frequency of floods and droughts, temperature intensity and variation, heat stress, surface water trends, and soil quality and fertility. The identified potential impacts related to population dynamics on agriculture were categorised under population growth, rural-urban migration, household income and infectious diseases and HIV and AIDS. Community-level mitigation strategies were proffered. Policy makers are advised to promote irrigation farming, support farmers with farm inputs and credit facilities and establish active agricultural extension services to support the sustainable development of agriculture.

The Development of B2C E-Commerce in Greece: Current Situation and Future Potential.

Science.gov (United States)

Kardaras, Dimitris; Papathanassiou, Eleutherios

2000-01-01

Reports on the results of a survey of 120 companies in Greece that evaluated the potential of business to customer (B2C) Internet applications and investigated how the Internet and e-commerce can offer new opportunities for businesses to improve their customers' satisfaction. Discusses electronic commerce problems and future technology. (Contains…

Sociological assessment of professional self-determination of future doctors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gaidarov G.M.

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The lack of a formed professional self-determination among high school students leads to the fact that in the process of medical education and the first years of professional activity, a significant number of students and young specialists leave medicine. Purpose of the study: sociological assessment of professional self-determination of schoolchildren of the upper grades, including those who choose the profession of a doctor, as well as the factors that determine it. Methods. The study was conducted using a sociological survey using a specially developed questionnaire. Results. The level of professional self-determination of schoolchildren of the upper grades is low, one out of every three schoolchildren surveyed has not yet decided on the choice of the future profession, about 8 % of the students have not even chosen an approximate direction of future professional activity. Schoolchildren who have chosen the profession of a doctor, the main motivation is an adherence and a life situation, while prestige and the level of wages are not decisive. As the main base of forming professional self-determination two out of three respondents named the school, meaning the speech made for them by doctors and medical students. For those schoolchildren who have chosen the profession of a doctor on their own, the main motivation factor usually is the visit to the medical university during Doors Open Days. Conclusion. The most important role in the formation of professional self-determination of future doctors belongs to the development and implementation of vocational guidance activities carried out by the forces of the school and medical university.

Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arushanyan, Yevgeniya, E-mail: yevgeniya.arushanyan@abe.kth.se [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, Division of Environmental Strategies Research, Drottning Kristinas väg 30, 10044 Stockholm (Sweden); KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Centre for Sustainable Communications (CESC), Lindstedtsvägen 5, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden); Ekener, Elisabeth; Moberg, Åsa [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, Division of Environmental Strategies Research, Drottning Kristinas väg 30, 10044 Stockholm (Sweden); KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Centre for Sustainable Communications (CESC), Lindstedtsvägen 5, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden)

2017-03-15

To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach, and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.

Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arushanyan, Yevgeniya; Ekener, Elisabeth; Moberg, Åsa

2017-01-01

To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach, and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.

Future perspective of thorium based nuclear fuels and thorium potential of Turkey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unak, T.; Yildirim, Y.

2001-01-01

Today's nuclear technology has principally been based on the use of fissile U-235 and Pu-239. he existence of thorium in the nature and its potential use in the nuclear technology were not unfortunately into account with a sufficient importance. The global distributions of thorium and uranium reserves indicate that in general some developed countries such as the USA, Canada, Australia, France have considerable uranium reserves, and contrarily only some developing countries such as Turkey, Brazil, India, Egypt have considerable thorium reserves. The studies carried out on the thorium during the last 50 years have clearly showed that the thorium based nuclear fuels have the potential easily use in most of reactor types actually operated with the classical uranium based nuclear fuels without any considerable modification. In the case of the use of thorium based nuclear fuels in future nuclear energy production systems, the serious problems such as the excess of Pu-239, the proliferation potential of nuclear weapons, and also the anxious of nuclear terrorism will probably be resolved, and sustainable nuclear energy production will be realized in the next new century. (authors)

Future perspective of thorium based nuclear fuels and thorium potential of Turkey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unak, T.; Yildirim, Y.

2000-01-01

Today's nuclear technology has principally been based on the use of fissile U-235 and Pu-239. The existence of thorium in the nature and its potential use in the nuclear technology were not unfortunately into account with a sufficient importance. The global distributions of thorium and uranium reserves indicate that in general some developed countries such as the USA, Canada, Australia, France have considerable uranium reserves, and contrarily only some developing countries such as Turkey, Brazil, India, Egypt have considerable thorium reserves. The studies carried out on the thorium during the last 50 years have clearly showed that the thorium based nuclear fuels have the potential easily use in most of reactor types actually operated with the classical uranium based nuclear fuels without any considerable modification. In the case of the use of thorium based nuclear fuels in future nuclear energy production systems, the serious problems such as the excess of Pu-239, the proliferation potential of nuclear weapons, and also the anxious of nuclear terrorism will probably be resolved, and sustainable nuclear energy production will be realized in the next new century. (authors)

Career development and personal success profile of students - followers and students - potential future leaders: The case of RIT Croatia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jasminka Samardžija

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This study examines the differences among students in terms of self-reported leadership characteristics. It was conducted among all three programs and four generations of undergraduates at RIT Croatia. The goal of this study is to determine the differences among students who report being more and less leadership prone (Potential Future Leaders and Followers, respectively with regard to demographic characteristics, reported self reliance socialization pattern, college level and program choice, career focus attainment and development, and reported attitudes regarding the importance of specific personality traits in leadership, the importance of specific career development factors and success indicators. Research showed that generation and college program are not related to student reported leadership proneness, suggesting that college education’s impact on leadership traits is not significant. Only one socio-demographic factor considered was significantly different between clusters; namely, the respondents who had moved once were significantly more represented in the Potential Future Leaders cluster, suggesting that study-abroad programs might play a role in leadership development. In terms of ranking career development factors, success indicators, the importance of emotional stability and openness to experience as a specific leadership trait, Potential Future Leaders reported higher scores in comparison with Followers cluster, potentially resulting from their forwardlooking, goal-oriented attitude.

The current CEA/DRN safety approach for the design and the assessment of future nuclear installations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fiorini, G.L.; Pinto, P.L.; Costa, M.

1999-01-01

The purpose of the document is to present the basis of the safety approach currently implemented by the CEA/DRN, both for the design and the assessment of innovative systems and future nuclear installations. This approach is the result of the experience maturated, within the context of the CEA/DRN Innovative Programme through practical applications over several future concepts, both for fission and fusion reactors, as well as for waste disposal. The background of this experience is structured coherently with the European Safety Authorities recommendations and the European Utilities Requirements (EUR). The Defence In Depth principle and its application, by means, among others, of the barrier concept, remains the basis of the safety design process of future nuclear installations. Its adequacy is checked through the safety assessment. The methodology for Lines Of Defence (LOD) implementation as well as the one for the LOD architecture assessment is shown and motivated. The document shows that the clear and unambiguous definition of the safety approach provides an essential base for the organisation of the design tasks, being sure that the safety aspects are correctly taken into account and implemented, and for an adequate safety assessment of the final design, both from qualitative point of view as well as for the quantitative safety analysis. (author)

Assessment of renewable energy potential. Calculation model “AREP-LP”

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Penchev, Alexander

2011-01-01

Introduction Bulgaria is a country rich in renewable energy sources. There are all types of RES including: solar, geothermal, biomass, wind energy and hydropower. Per capita it ranks among the top in Europe. Bulgaria's target for 2020 is 16% of final consumption of electricity should be from renewable energy. To achieve this goal, the first and most important task is assessing the potential of renewable energy and its geographical distribution. Creating a database of renewable energy is essential for implementation of investment projects in this area. Key words: Renewable Energy (RES), Renewable Technologies (RET), Theoretical Potential, Technical Potential, Municipalities, Regions, Energy Planning(EP), Emission Reduction (EmR), Market Assessment (MA), Data base(DB)

Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Glacier Hazards Assessment: Application to Predicting the Potential for Glacier Lake Outbursts

Science.gov (United States)

Furfaro, R.; Kargel, J. S.; Fink, W.; Bishop, M. P.

2010-12-01

Glaciers and ice sheets are among the largest unstable parts of the solid Earth. Generally, glaciers are devoid of resources (other than water), are dangerous, are unstable and no infrastructure is normally built directly on their surfaces. Areas down valley from large alpine glaciers are also commonly unstable due to landslide potential of moraines, debris flows, snow avalanches, outburst floods from glacier lakes, and other dynamical alpine processes; yet there exists much development and human occupation of some disaster-prone areas. Satellite remote sensing can be extremely effective in providing cost-effective and time- critical information. Space-based imagery can be used to monitor glacier outlines and their lakes, including processes such as iceberg calving and debris accumulation, as well as changing thicknesses and flow speeds. Such images can also be used to make preliminary identifications of specific hazardous spots and allows preliminary assessment of possible modes of future disaster occurrence. Autonomous assessment of glacier conditions and their potential for hazards would present a major advance and permit systematized analysis of more data than humans can assess. This technical leap will require the design and implementation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms specifically designed to mimic glacier experts’ reasoning. Here, we introduce the theory of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) as an AI tool for predicting and assessing natural hazards in alpine glacier environments. FCM techniques are employed to represent expert knowledge of glaciers physical processes. A cognitive model embedded in a fuzzy logic framework is constructed via the synergistic interaction between glaciologists and AI experts. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed AI methodology as applied to predicting hazards in glacier environments, we designed and implemented a FCM that addresses the challenging problem of autonomously assessing the Glacier Lake Outburst Flow

A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs

Science.gov (United States)

Normand, Signe; Randin, Christophe; Ohlemüller, Ralf; Bay, Christian; Høye, Toke T.; Kjær, Erik D.; Körner, Christian; Lischke, Heike; Maiorano, Luigi; Paulsen, Jens; Pearman, Peter B.; Psomas, Achilleas; Treier, Urs A.; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2013-01-01

Warming-induced expansion of trees and shrubs into tundra vegetation will strongly impact Arctic ecosystems. Today, a small subset of the boreal woody flora found during certain Plio-Pleistocene warm periods inhabits Greenland. Whether the twenty-first century warming will induce a re-colonization of a rich woody flora depends on the roles of climate and migration limitations in shaping species ranges. Using potential treeline and climatic niche modelling, we project shifts in areas climatically suitable for tree growth and 56 Greenlandic, North American and European tree and shrub species from the Last Glacial Maximum through the present and into the future. In combination with observed tree plantings, our modelling highlights that a majority of the non-native species find climatically suitable conditions in certain parts of Greenland today, even in areas harbouring no native trees. Analyses of analogous climates indicate that these conditions are widespread outside Greenland, thus increasing the likelihood of woody invasions. Nonetheless, we find a substantial migration lag for Greenland's current and future woody flora. In conclusion, the projected climatic scope for future expansions is strongly limited by dispersal, soil development and other disequilibrium dynamics, with plantings and unintentional seed dispersal by humans having potentially large impacts on spread rates. PMID:23836785

Ozone depletion following future volcanic eruptions

Science.gov (United States)

Eric Klobas, J.; Wilmouth, David M.; Weisenstein, Debra K.; Anderson, James G.; Salawitch, Ross J.

2017-07-01

While explosive volcanic eruptions cause ozone loss in the current atmosphere due to an enhancement in the availability of reactive chlorine following the stratospheric injection of sulfur, future eruptions are expected to increase total column ozone as halogen loading approaches preindustrial levels. The timing of this shift in the impact of major volcanic eruptions on the thickness of the ozone layer is poorly known. Modeling four possible climate futures, we show that scenarios with the smallest increase in greenhouse gas concentrations lead to the greatest risk to ozone from heterogeneous chemical processing following future eruptions. We also show that the presence in the stratosphere of bromine from natural, very short-lived biogenic compounds is critically important for determining whether future eruptions will lead to ozone depletion. If volcanic eruptions inject hydrogen halides into the stratosphere, an effect not considered in current ozone assessments, potentially profound reductions in column ozone would result.

Predicting the future of sports organizations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jugoslav Vojinovic

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The current crisis of sport in Serbia justifies its prediction of real potential future of sport organizations. Sample of respondents (N=277 was divided in two subsamples: 113 professional persons involved in the management of sports clubs ("experimental" sample and 164 individuals ("control" sample. The results of structural analysis showed that experimental sample based its vision on the staff as a determinant of the system, which is providing creativity as a characteristic of the organizational culture of the club. Control subsample of respondents could indicate some characteristic variables to predict the future of clubs, but can't say a clear prediction system based on a long sequence of reasoning. We can conclude that the mentioned two sub-samples are differerent in terms of the ability to orient to predict the future of their clubs on the basis of assessment of the key variables that shape the future scenarios.

The potential impact of biochemical mediators on telomere attrition in major depressive disorder and implications for future study designs: A narrative review.

Science.gov (United States)

Manoliu, Andrei; Bosch, Oliver G; Brakowski, Janis; Brühl, Annette B; Seifritz, Erich

2018-01-01

Major depressive disorder (MDD) has been proposed to represent a "disease of premature aging", which is associated with certain biomarkers of cellular ageing and numerous other age-related diseases. Over the last decade, telomere length (TL) arose as a surrogate for cellular aging. Recent data suggests that TL might be reduced in patients with MDD, however, results are still inconclusive. This might be explained by the lack of assessment of potential biochemical mediators that are directly associated with telomere shortening and frequently observed in patients with MDD. A narrative review was performed. The PubMed database was searched for relevant studies. We identified four major mediators, which are recurrently reported in patients with MDD and are associated with reduced TL: inflammation/oxidative stress, dysregulation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, metabolic dysbalance including insulin resistance, and decreased brain-derived neurotrophic factor. These mediators are also mutually associated and were not systematically assessed in current studies investigating TL and MDD, which might explain inconclusive findings across current literature. Finally, we discuss possible ways to assess those mediators and potential implications of such approaches for future research. The majority of identified studies had cross-sectional designs and used heterogeneous methods to assess TL and associated relevant biochemical mediators. A better understanding of the complex interactions between biochemical mediators, somatic comorbidities and shortened telomeres in patients with MDD might further specify the pathophysiology-based conceptualization and, based on that, personalized treatment of MDD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Visions about Future: A New Scale Assessing Optimism, Pessimism, and Hope in Adolescents

Science.gov (United States)

Ginevra, Maria Cristina; Sgaramella, Teresa Maria; Ferrari, Lea; Nota, Laura; Santilli, Sara; Soresi, Salvatore

2017-01-01

This article reports the development and psychometric properties of visions about future (VAF), an instrument assessing hope, optimism, and pessimism. Three different studies involving Italian adolescents were conducted. With the first study 22 items were developed and the factor structure was verified. The second study, involving a second sample…

Planning for sustainable tourism in southern Pulau Banggi: an assessment of biophysical conditions and their implications for future tourism development.

Science.gov (United States)

Teh, Lydia; Cabanban, Annadel S

2007-12-01

A priori assessments of a site's biophysical and socio-economic capacity for accommodating tourism are less common than tourism impact studies. A priori evaluations can provide a contextual understanding of ecological, economic and socio-cultural forces, which shape the prospects for sustainable tourism development at the host destination, and can avert adverse impacts of tourism. We conduct an a priori assessment of the biophysical environment of Pulau Banggi, in the Malaysian state of Sabah for sustainable tourism development. We characterise baseline conditions of the island's marine biodiversity, seasonality, and infrastructure. We then evaluate how existing biophysical conditions will influence options for sustainable tourism development. In particular, we suggest conditions, if there are any, which constitute a limit to future tourism development in terms of compatibility for recreation and resilience to visitor impacts. We find that the biggest constraint is the lack of adequate water and sanitation infrastructure. Blast fishing, although occurring less than once per hour, can potentially destroy the major attraction for tourists. We conclude that while Pulau Banggi possesses natural qualities that are attractive for ecotourism, financial and institutional support must be made available to provide facilities and services that will enable local participation in environmental protection and enhance prospects for future sustainable tourism.

Preclinical assessment of the abuse potential of the orexin receptor antagonist, suvorexant.

Science.gov (United States)

Born, Stephanie; Gauvin, David V; Mukherjee, Suman; Briscoe, Richard

2017-06-01

Suvorexant (Belsomra ® ) is a dual orexin receptor antagonist approved for the treatment of insomnia. Because of its pharmacology within the central nervous system, intended therapeutic indication, and first-in-class status, an assessment of suvorexant abuse liability potential was required prior to marketing approval. The nonclinical abuse liability potential studies for suvorexant included: 1) rat drug-dependence model to assess physical dependence following abrupt cessation; 2) rat drug-discrimination model to examine the potential similarity of the interoceptive or subjective effects of suvorexant to those elicited by zolpidem and morphine; 3) self-administration model to assess the relative reinforcing efficacy of suvorexant in rhesus monkeys conditioned to self-administer methohexital. No significant signs of spontaneous drug withdrawal or 'discontinuation syndrome' were observed in rats following abrupt discontinuation of suvorexant. Suvorexant did not elicit complete cross-generalization to either a zolpidem or morphine training/reference stimuli in rats, and suvorexant was devoid of behavioral evidence of positive reinforcing efficacy in monkeys. These nonclinical findings suggested that suvorexant will have low abuse potential in humans. In the final regulatory risk assessment, suvorexant was placed into Schedule IV, likely due to its first-in-class status, its sedative properties, and the outcome of the clinical abuse potential assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Beyond speculative robot ethics: a vision assessment study on the future of the robotic caretaker.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Plas, Arjanna; Smits, Martijntje; Wehrmann, Caroline

2010-11-01

In this article we develop a dialogue model for robot technology experts and designated users to discuss visions on the future of robotics in long-term care. Our vision assessment study aims for more distinguished and more informed visions on future robots. Surprisingly, our experiment also led to some promising co-designed robot concepts in which jointly articulated moral guidelines are embedded. With our model, we think to have designed an interesting response on a recent call for a less speculative ethics of technology by encouraging discussions about the quality of positive and negative visions on the future of robotics.

Helping a community control its future: Potential negotiating packages and benefits for an MRS host

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helvey, E.; Kane, D.; Trebules, V.

1993-01-01

The voluntary sitting process for the Monitored Retrievable Storage (MRS) facility set forth in the Nuclear Waste Policy Amendments Act (NWPAA) of 1987 provides a potential host community a unique opportunity to improve its present situation and to gain greater control over its future. To take full advantage of that opportunity throughout the life of the facility, an interested host must bring two things to the negotiating table: (1) a clear understanding of the special benefits, concerns and impacts associated with siting a controversial facility along with a detailed plan for addressing the requirements and impacts of such a facility; and (2) a vision of what the community wants to be in the future and list of specific measures it might achieve through negotiations that would help it realize that future. This paper investigates potential negotiating options a host might develop that, while addressing the impacts arena, also set forth terms by which the host can use the MRS to gain greater control over its unique set of resources and needs. The first section of this paper highlights the major concerns that a community might raise when debating whether to host an MRS and lists generic mitigation techniques that address those concerns. The second section pulls those mitigation techniques together into negotiating packages to show how the same concerns can be addressed differently depending on the strengths, weaknesses, and priorities of two different hypothetical host communities

Development of a methodology to assess future trends in low flows at the watershed scale using solely climate data

Science.gov (United States)

Foulon, Étienne; Rousseau, Alain N.; Gagnon, Patrick

2018-02-01

Low flow conditions are governed by short-to-medium term weather conditions or long term climate conditions. This prompts the question: given climate scenarios, is it possible to assess future extreme low flow conditions from climate data indices (CDIs)? Or should we rely on the conventional approach of using outputs of climate models as inputs to a hydrological model? Several CDIs were computed using 42 climate scenarios over the years 1961-2100 for two watersheds located in Québec, Canada. The relationship between the CDIs and hydrological data indices (HDIs; 7- and 30-day low flows for two hydrological seasons) were examined through correlation analysis to identify the indices governing low flows. Results of the Mann-Kendall test, with a modification for autocorrelated data, clearly identified trends. A partial correlation analysis allowed attributing the observed trends in HDIs to trends in specific CDIs. Furthermore, results showed that, even during the spatial validation process, the methodological framework was able to assess trends in low flow series from: (i) trends in the effective drought index (EDI) computed from rainfall plus snowmelt minus PET amounts over ten to twelve months of the hydrological snow cover season or (ii) the cumulative difference between rainfall and potential evapotranspiration over five months of the snow free season. For 80% of the climate scenarios, trends in HDIs were successfully attributed to trends in CDIs. Overall, this paper introduces an efficient methodological framework to assess future trends in low flows given climate scenarios. The outcome may prove useful to municipalities concerned with source water management under changing climate conditions.

Comprehensive Assessment of the Potential for Efficient District Heating and Cooling and for High-Efficient Cogeneration in Austria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard Büchele

2016-12-01

Full Text Available In accordance with the EU Energy Efficiency Directive all Member States have to develop a comprehensive assessment of the potential for high-efficient CHP and efficient district heating and cooling by the end of 2015. This paper describes the approach and methodology used to determine the district heating potentials for Austria. In a first step actual and future heating and cooling demand in the building sector is evaluated using the techno-economic bottom-up model Invert/EE-Lab. Relevant infrastructure probably existing in 2025 is investigated and included into the analysis. Technical potentials for efficient technologies are calculated. After a classification of relevant regions into main and secondary regions a country-level cost-benefit-analysis is performed. The results indicate that there is a reasonable additional potential for district heating by the year 2025 under our central scenario assumptions and within sensitivity scenarios. Only in scenarios with high CO2-price or low gas price, CHP is an economically efficient solution to supply district heat.

Extracting information from an ensemble of GCMs to reliably assess future global runoff change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sperna Weiland, F.C.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Weerts, A.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

2011-01-01

Future runoff projections derived from different global climate models (GCMs) show large differences. Therefore, within this study the, information from multiple GCMs has been combined to better assess hydrological changes. For projections of precipitation and temperature the Reliability ensemble

Looking Ahead: The Inclusion of Long-Term Futures in Cumulative Environmental Assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Munn, R.E.

1994-01-01

Proceeding of a workshop on the Inclusion of Long-Term Futures in Cumulative Environmental Assessments (CEA's) were presented.. Also included were three working group reports and papers presented at the conference. The issue of the concept of Cumulative Environmental Assessments was summarized, along with the current transformation to a more global outlook. The concepts and methodological questions associated with ecology and economics were tackled. CEA methods were discussed and a contrast was made with land-use planning. The importance of long-term monitoring programs was introduced and examples of early warning systems were given. Social science issues behind CEAs were also discussed. Recommendation e for preparing CEA's, the design of early warning monitoring systems, and public involvement, were made.. Contributed papers covered topics related to environmental assessment, pollution, and climate change

An assessment of the natural gas supply potential of the south energy corridor from the Caspian Region to the EU

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mavrakis, Dimitrios; Thomaidis, Fotios; Ntroukas, Ioannis

2006-01-01

Security and diversification of EU energy supply underlines the importance of an energy corridor bridging the natural gas reserves of the broader Caspian Region with the EU consumption centers. This paper examines the supply potential of this corridor, the major natural gas fields and the already existing networks. An assessment of the supply cost up to the Turkish borders is carried out, while the case of Egypt as a future supplier is also investigated. Conclusions review the prospects for the construction of the considered energy corridor

Probing features in inflaton potential and reionization history with future CMB space observations

Science.gov (United States)

Hazra, Dhiraj Kumar; Paoletti, Daniela; Ballardini, Mario; Finelli, Fabio; Shafieloo, Arman; Smoot, George F.; Starobinsky, Alexei A.

2018-02-01

We consider the prospects of probing features in the primordial power spectrum with future Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) polarization measurements. In the scope of the inflationary scenario, such features in the spectrum can be produced by local non-smooth pieces in an inflaton potential (smooth and quasi-flat in general) which in turn may originate from fast phase transitions during inflation in other quantum fields interacting with the inflaton. They can fit some outliers in the CMB temperature power spectrum which are unaddressed within the standard inflationary ΛCDM model. We consider Wiggly Whipped Inflation (WWI) as a theoretical framework leading to improvements in the fit to the Planck 2015 temperature and polarization data in comparison with the standard inflationary models, although not at a statistically significant level. We show that some type of features in the potential within the WWI models, leading to oscillations in the primordial power spectrum that extend to intermediate and small scales can be constrained with high confidence (at 3σ or higher confidence level) by an instrument as the Cosmic ORigins Explorer (CORE). In order to investigate the possible confusion between inflationary features and footprints from the reionization era, we consider an extended reionization history with monotonic increase of free electrons with decrease in redshift. We discuss the present constraints on this model of extended reionization and future predictions with CORE. We also project, to what extent, this extended reionization can create confusion in identifying inflationary features in the data.

Securing the future in the anthropocene: A critical analysis of the millennium ecosystem assessment scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert P. Marzec

2018-05-01

Full Text Available This commentary analyzes the ontological character of the United Nations’ Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005 and its attempt to imagine business-as-usual and transformative human-environmental futures. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA constitutes the first and most significant attempt by an international political body to incorporate environmental concerns into the field of imaginative scenario building. In addition to its lengthy report on the threatened status of planetary ecosystems, the MA contains extensive “future scenarios” that imagine how human-environmental relations might unfold over the course of the twenty-first century. These scenarios arise out of the lineage of military scenarios generated during the Cold War, and continue to inform UN assessments in the present. This commentary explores how a politico-military concern for security informs the framework of the scenarios, and limits how the MA characterizes the fundamental human act of narration. In the process, the commentary explores alternative ontologies of narration and how these may lead to more transformative narratological interventions.

Socio-economic and Engineering Assessments of Renewable Energy Cost Reduction Potential

Science.gov (United States)

Seel, Joachim

This dissertation combines three perspectives on the potential of cost reductions of renewable energy--a relevant topic, as high energy costs have traditionally been cited as major reason to vindicate developments of fossil fuel and nuclear power plants, and to justify financial support mechanisms and special incentives for renewable energy generators. First, I highlight the role of market and policy drivers in an international comparison of upfront capital expenses of residential photovoltaic systems in Germany and the United States that result in price differences of a factor of two and suggest cost reduction opportunities. In a second article I examine engineering approaches and siting considerations of large-scale photovoltaic projects in the United States that enable substantial system performance increases and allow thus for lower energy costs on a levelized basis. Finally, I investigate future cost reduction options of wind energy, ranging from capital expenses, operating expenses, and performance over a project's lifetime to financing costs. The assessment shows both substantial further cost decline potential for mature technologies like land-based turbines, nascent technologies like fixed-bottom offshore turbines, and experimental technologies like floating offshore turbines. The following paragraphs summarize each analysis: International upfront capital cost comparison of residential solar systems: Residential photovoltaic (PV) systems were twice as expensive in the United States as in Germany in 2012. This price discrepancy stems primarily from differences in non-hardware or "soft" costs between the two countries, of which only 35% be explained by differences in cumulative market size and associated learning. A survey of German PV installers was deployed to collect granular data on PV soft costs in Germany, and the results are compared to those of a similar survey of U.S. PV installers. Non-module hardware costs and all analyzed soft costs are lower in

Dynamic Assessment, Potential Giftedness and Mathematics Achievement in Elementary School

Science.gov (United States)

Popa, Nicoleta Laura; Pauc, Ramona Loredana

2015-01-01

Dynamic assessment is currently discussed in educational literature as one of the most promising practices in stimulating learning among various groups of students, including gifted and potentially gifted students. The present study investigates effects of dynamic assessment on mathematics achievement among elementary school students, with…

A method for assessing carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of the United States under present conditions and future scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Robert G.; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

2010-01-01

solicited to construct these scenarios.The methods for mapping the current LULC and ecosystem disturbances will require the extensive use of both remote-sensing data and field-survey data (for example, forest inventories) to capture and characterize landscape-changing events. For potential LULC changes and ecosystem disturbances, key drivers such as socioeconomic and climate changes will be used in addition to the biophysical data. The result of these analyses will be a series of maps for each future year for each scenario. These annual maps will form the basis for estimating carbon storage and GHG emissions. For terrestrial ecosystems, carbon storage, carbon-sequestration capacities, and GHG emissions under the present conditions and future scenarios will be assessed using the LULC-change and ecosystem-disturbance estimates in map format with a spatially explicit biogeochemical ensemble modeling system that incorporates properties of management activities (such as tillage or harvesting) and properties of individual ecosystems (such as energy exchange, vegetation characteristics, hydrological cycling, and soil attributes). For aquatic ecosystems, carbon burial in sediments and fluxes of GHG are functions of the present and future potential stream flow and sediment transport and will be assessed using empirical hydrological modeling methods. Validation and uncertainty analysis methods described in the methodology will follow established guidelines to assess the quality of the assessment results.The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Level II ecoregions map will be the practical instrument for developing and delivering assessment results. Consequently, the ecoregion (there are 22 modified ecoregions) will be the reporting unit of the assessment because the scenarios, assessment results, validation, and uncertainty analysis will be produced at that scale. The implementation of these methods will require collaborations among various Federal agencies, State agencies

Realistic Energy Saving Potential of Sleep Mode for Existing and Future Mobile Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Micallef, Gilbert; Saker, Louai; Elayoubi, Salah Eddine

2012-01-01

potential savings, and emphasize some of the expected limitations. Since site measurements show that the energy consumption of base station sites is largely load-independent, this makes such a feature highly effective for reducing the energy consumption of mobile networks during hours of low traffic. After......This paper presents an extensive overview on an energy saving feature referred to as ‘site sleep mode’, designed for existing and future mobile broadband networks. In addition to providing a detailed understanding of the main concept, the paper also provides various studies and results to highlight...

Evaluation of Stochastic Rainfall Models in Capturing Climate Variability for Future Drought and Flood Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Chowdhury, A. F. M. K.; Lockart, N.; Willgoose, G. R.; Kuczera, G. A.; Kiem, A.; Nadeeka, P. M.

2016-12-01

One of the key objectives of stochastic rainfall modelling is to capture the full variability of climate system for future drought and flood risk assessment. However, it is not clear how well these models can capture the future climate variability when they are calibrated to Global/Regional Climate Model data (GCM/RCM) as these datasets are usually available for very short future period/s (e.g. 20 years). This study has assessed the ability of two stochastic daily rainfall models to capture climate variability by calibrating them to a dynamically downscaled RCM dataset in an east Australian catchment for 1990-2010, 2020-2040, and 2060-2080 epochs. The two stochastic models are: (1) a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model, which we developed in a previous study and (2) a semi-parametric MC model developed by Mehrotra and Sharma (2007). Our hierarchical model uses stochastic parameters of MC and Gamma distribution, while the semi-parametric model uses a modified MC process with memory of past periods and kernel density estimation. This study has generated multiple realizations of rainfall series by using parameters of each model calibrated to the RCM dataset for each epoch. The generated rainfall series are used to generate synthetic streamflow by using a SimHyd hydrology model. Assessing the synthetic rainfall and streamflow series, this study has found that both stochastic models can incorporate a range of variability in rainfall as well as streamflow generation for both current and future periods. However, the hierarchical model tends to overestimate the multiyear variability of wet spell lengths (therefore, is less likely to simulate long periods of drought and flood), while the semi-parametric model tends to overestimate the mean annual rainfall depths and streamflow volumes (hence, simulated droughts are likely to be less severe). Sensitivity of these limitations of both stochastic models in terms of future drought and flood risk assessment will be discussed.

The Subjective Health Horizon Questionnaire (SHH-Q): Assessing Future Time Perspectives for Facets of an Active Lifestyle.

Science.gov (United States)

Düzel, Sandra; Voelkle, Manuel C; Düzel, Emrah; Gerstorf, Denis; Drewelies, Johanna; Steinhagen-Thiessen, Elisabeth; Demuth, Ilja; Lindenberger, Ulman

2016-01-01

A wider subjective time horizon is assumed to be positively associated with longevity and vitality. In particular, a lifestyle with exposure to novel and varied information is considered beneficial for healthy cognitive aging. At present, measures that specifically assess individuals' perceived temporal extension to engage in active lifestyles in the future are not available. We introduce and validate a new self-report measure, the Subjective Health Horizon Questionnaire (SHH-Q). The SHH-Q assesses individuals' future time perspectives in relation to four interrelated but distinct lifestyle dimensions: (1) novelty-oriented exploration (Novelty), (2) bodily fitness (Body), (3) work goals (Work), and (4) goals in life (Life Goals). The present study aims at: (a) validating the hypothesized factor structure of the SHH-Q, according to which the SHH-Q consists of four interrelated but distinct subscales, and (b) testing the hypothesis that the Novelty and Body subscales of the SHH-Q show positive and selective associations with markers of cognition and somatic health, respectively. Using structural equation modeling, we analyzed data from 1,371 healthy individuals (51% women) with a mean age of 70.1 years (SD = 3.6) who participated in the Berlin Aging Study II (BASE-II) and completed the SHH-Q. As predicted, the SHH-Q formed four correlated but distinct subscales: (1) Novelty, (2) Body, (3) Work, and (4) Life Goals. Greater self-reported future novelty orientation was associated with higher current memory performance, and greater future expectations regarding bodily fitness with better current metabolic status. The SHH-Q reliably assesses individual differences in four distinct dimensions of future time perspective. Two of these dimensions, Novelty and Body, show differential associations with cognitive status and somatic health. The SHH-Q may serve as a tool to assess how different facets of future time perspective relate to somatic health, cognition, motivation, and

Assessing the global warming potential of wooden products from the furniture sector to improve their ecodesign

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

González-García, Sara; Gasol, Carles M.; Lozano, Raúl García; Moreira, Ma Teresa; Gabarrell, Xavier; Rieradevall i Pons, Joan; Feijoo, Gumersindo

2011-01-01

The main objective of this study was to determine the global warming potential of several wood products as an environmental criterion for their ecodesign. Two methodologies were combined: the quantification of greenhouse gas emissions (equivalent CO 2 ) of several representative wood based products from the furniture sector and the integration of environmental aspects into product design. The products under assessment were classified in two groups: indoor products and outdoor products, depending on their location. “Indoor products” included a convertible cot/bed, a kitchen cabinet, an office table, a living room furniture, a headboard, youth room accessories and a wine crate, while the “Outdoor products” analysed were a ventilated wooden wall and a wooden playground. Spanish wood processing companies located in Galicia (NW Spain) and Catalonia (NE Spain) were analysed in detail. The life cycle of each product was carried out from a cradle-to-gate perspective according to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, using global warming potential as the selected impact category. According to the results, metals, boards and energy use appeared to be the most contributing elements to the environmental impact of the different products under assessment, with total contributions ranging from 40% to 90%. Furthermore, eco-design strategies were proposed by means of the methodology known as Design for the Environment (DfE). Improvement strategies viable for implementation in the short term were considered and analysed in detail, accounting for remarkable reductions in the equivalent CO 2 emissions (up to 60%). These strategies would be focused on the use of renewable energies such as photovoltaic cells, the promotion of national fibres or changes in the materials used. Other alternatives to be implemented in the long term can be of potential interest for future developments.

Assessing the global warming potential of wooden products from the furniture sector to improve their ecodesign

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gonzalez-Garcia, Sara, E-mail: sara.gonzalez@usc.es [Division of Biology, Department of Life Sciences, Sir Alexander Fleming Building, Imperial College of London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Department of Chemical Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, 15782- Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Gasol, Carles M.; Lozano, Raul Garcia [Inedit Innovacio, Carretera de Cabrils, km 2 -IRTA-, 08348 Cabrils, Barcelona (Spain); SosteniPrA - UAB-IRTA, Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (UAB), 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain); Moreira, Ma Teresa [Department of Chemical Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, 15782- Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Gabarrell, Xavier; Rieradevall i Pons, Joan [SosteniPrA (UAB-IRTA), Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona UAB, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain); Department of Chemical Engineering, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (UAB), 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain); Feijoo, Gumersindo [Department of Chemical Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, 15782- Santiago de Compostela (Spain)

2011-12-01

The main objective of this study was to determine the global warming potential of several wood products as an environmental criterion for their ecodesign. Two methodologies were combined: the quantification of greenhouse gas emissions (equivalent CO{sub 2}) of several representative wood based products from the furniture sector and the integration of environmental aspects into product design. The products under assessment were classified in two groups: indoor products and outdoor products, depending on their location. 'Indoor products' included a convertible cot/bed, a kitchen cabinet, an office table, a living room furniture, a headboard, youth room accessories and a wine crate, while the 'Outdoor products' analysed were a ventilated wooden wall and a wooden playground. Spanish wood processing companies located in Galicia (NW Spain) and Catalonia (NE Spain) were analysed in detail. The life cycle of each product was carried out from a cradle-to-gate perspective according to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, using global warming potential as the selected impact category. According to the results, metals, boards and energy use appeared to be the most contributing elements to the environmental impact of the different products under assessment, with total contributions ranging from 40% to 90%. Furthermore, eco-design strategies were proposed by means of the methodology known as Design for the Environment (DfE). Improvement strategies viable for implementation in the short term were considered and analysed in detail, accounting for remarkable reductions in the equivalent CO{sub 2} emissions (up to 60%). These strategies would be focused on the use of renewable energies such as photovoltaic cells, the promotion of national fibres or changes in the materials used. Other alternatives to be implemented in the long term can be of potential interest for future developments.

Assessing the global warming potential of wooden products from the furniture sector to improve their ecodesign.

Science.gov (United States)

González-García, Sara; Gasol, Carles M; Lozano, Raúl García; Moreira, María Teresa; Gabarrell, Xavier; Rieradevall i Pons, Joan; Feijoo, Gumersindo

2011-12-01

The main objective of this study was to determine the global warming potential of several wood products as an environmental criterion for their ecodesign. Two methodologies were combined: the quantification of greenhouse gas emissions (equivalent CO(2)) of several representative wood based products from the furniture sector and the integration of environmental aspects into product design. The products under assessment were classified in two groups: indoor products and outdoor products, depending on their location. "Indoor products" included a convertible cot/bed, a kitchen cabinet, an office table, a living room furniture, a headboard, youth room accessories and a wine crate, while the "Outdoor products" analysed were a ventilated wooden wall and a wooden playground. Spanish wood processing companies located in Galicia (NW Spain) and Catalonia (NE Spain) were analysed in detail. The life cycle of each product was carried out from a cradle-to-gate perspective according to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, using global warming potential as the selected impact category. According to the results, metals, boards and energy use appeared to be the most contributing elements to the environmental impact of the different products under assessment, with total contributions ranging from 40% to 90%. Furthermore, eco-design strategies were proposed by means of the methodology known as Design for the Environment (DfE). Improvement strategies viable for implementation in the short term were considered and analysed in detail, accounting for remarkable reductions in the equivalent CO(2) emissions (up to 60%). These strategies would be focused on the use of renewable energies such as photovoltaic cells, the promotion of national fibres or changes in the materials used. Other alternatives to be implemented in the long term can be of potential interest for future developments. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Future technology in cochlear implants: assessing the benefit.

Science.gov (United States)

Briggs, Robert J S

2011-05-01

); automated fitting; and reduction in outcome variability. This paper provides examples of relevant potential future technologies that can be applied to reach these goals. In the quest for better outcomes, future technology must deliver improved reliability and usability for both clinicians and recipients that does not compromise safety and is affordable. One of the challenges related to the introduction of new technologies is the 'classification' of CI systems and the framework under which sufficient change and increased benefit can be demonstrated to establish a claim of 'new generation CI' and hence increased reimbursement from third-party payers. Significant improvements in hearing outcomes and quality of life associated with CI design changes are difficult to measure, particularly when there is such dramatic benefit from the intervention of cochlear implantation from the individual's perspective. Manufacturers and clinicians need to be objective and undertake appropriate safety studies and long-term and multi-centre clinical trials to ensure that the introduction of new technology is both safe and effective and supported by health systems worldwide.

Fishery potential of the Gulf of Kachchh

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Nair, V.R.; Govindan, K.; Ramaiah, Neelam; Gajbhiye, S.N.

Fishery potential of the interior Gulf of Kachchh and adjacent creek regions was reported for the first time as baseline data for future ecological assessment. The experimental trawling and gill netting indicated that the inner Gulf (av. 7.8 kg...

Linking global scenarios to national assessments: Experiences from the Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Linda L. Langner; Peter J. Ince

2012-01-01

The Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment provides a nationally consistent analysis of the status and trends of the Nation's renewable forest resources. A global scenario approach was taken for the 2010 RPA Assessment to provide a shared world view of potential futures. The RPA Assessment scenarios were linked to the global scenarios and climate projections used...

Integrated impact assessment in the UK--use, efficacy and future development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milner, Susan J.; Bailey, Cathy; Deans, Julia; Pettigrew, Dulcie

2005-01-01

This paper reports on the findings of an English Department of Health funded study that mapped out examples of integrated impact assessment (IIA) activity, mainly in the UK. Approximately 350 regional and local organisations that have policy and policy implementation roles were contacted via e-mail and from these, 77 telephone interviews were carried out. The interviews revealed 21 examples of IIA being used or developed within the UK. The 77 interviews also generated a rich discussion about the use, efficacy and future development of IIA. Although the findings indicate little IIA activity in the UK, discussions with interviewees suggest that there is growing receptiveness to integrating different forms of assessment into a single assessment process. In part this appears to be driven by sustainable development objectives, both at a strategic and at a local level. In part receptivity to IIA may also be driven by a growing interest in health impact assessment (HIA). There are advocates of the need to integrate health criteria more fully into other forms of impact assessment. The study also highlights the challenges involved in trying to develop IIA methods that are adaptable, flexible and tailored to the different needs of policy-makers and planners

Assessment of the potential future market in Sweden for hydrogen as an energy carrier

Science.gov (United States)

Carleson, G.

Future hydrogen markets for the period 1980-2025 are projected, the probable range of hydrogen production costs for various manufacturing methods is estimated, and expected market shares in competition with alternative energy carriers are evaluated. A general scenario for economic and industrial development in Sweden for the given period was evaluated, showing the average increase in gross national product to become 1.6% per year. Three different energy scenarios were then developed: alternatives were based on nuclear energy, renewable indigenous energy sources, and the present energy situation with free access to imported natural or synthetic fuels. An analysis was made within each scenario of the competitiveness of hydrogen on both the demand and the supply of the following sectors: chemical industry, steel industry, peak power production, residential and commercial heating, and transportation. Costs were calculated for the production, storage and transmission of hydrogen according to technically feasible methods and were compared to those of alternative energy carriers. Health, environmental and societal implications were also considered. The market penetration of hydrogen in each sector was estimated, and the required investment capital was shown to be less than 4% of the national gross investment sum.

Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France.

Science.gov (United States)

Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J J; Pagé, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A

2016-11-03

Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by taking interactions between climate, land use and soil type into account. We conclude that climate change will have a much bigger influence on future SOC losses in mid-latitude mineral soils than land use change dynamics. Hence, reducing CO 2 emissions will be crucial to prevent further loss of carbon from our soils.

Historical Spice as a Future Drug: Therapeutic Potential of Piperlongumine.

Science.gov (United States)

Prasad, Sahdeo; Tyagi, Amit K

2016-01-01

Spice and spice-derived compounds have been identified and explored for their health benefits since centuries. One of the spice long pepper has been traditionally used to treat chronic bronchitis, asthma, constipation, gonorrhea, paralysis of the tongue, diarrhea, cholera, malaria, viral hepatitis, respiratory infections, stomach ache, diseases of the spleen, cough, and tumors. In this review, the evidences for the chemopreventive and chemotherapeutic potential of piperlongumine have been described. The active component piperlonguime has shown effective against various ailments including cancer, neurogenerative disease, arthritis, melanogenesis, lupus nephritis, and hyperlipidemic. These beneficial effects of piperlongumine is attributed to its ability to modulate several signaling molecules like reactive oxygen species, kinases, proteasome, proto-oncogenes, transcription factors, cell cycle, inflammatory molecules and cell growth and survival molecules. Piperlongumine also chemosensitizes to drugs resistant cancer cells. Overall the consumption of long peppers is therefore recommended for the prevention and treatment of various diseases including cancer, and thus piperlongumine may be a promising future candidate drug against cancer.

Nanomaterial categorization for assessing risk potential to facilitate regulatory decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Godwin, Hilary; Nameth, Catherine; Avery, David; Bergeson, Lynn L; Bernard, Daniel; Beryt, Elizabeth; Boyes, William; Brown, Scott; Clippinger, Amy J; Cohen, Yoram; Doa, Maria; Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Holden, Patricia; Houck, Keith; Kane, Agnes B; Klaessig, Frederick; Kodas, Toivo; Landsiedel, Robert; Lynch, Iseult; Malloy, Timothy; Miller, Mary Beth; Muller, Julie; Oberdorster, Gunter; Petersen, Elijah J; Pleus, Richard C; Sayre, Philip; Stone, Vicki; Sullivan, Kristie M; Tentschert, Jutta; Wallis, Philip; Nel, Andre E

2015-01-01

For nanotechnology to meet its potential as a game-changing and sustainable technology, it is important to ensure that the engineered nanomaterials and nanoenabled products that gain entry to the marketplace are safe and effective. Tools and methods are needed for regulatory purposes to allow rapid material categorization according to human health and environmental risk potential, so that materials of high concern can be targeted for additional scrutiny, while material categories that pose the least risk can receive expedited review. Using carbon nanotubes as an example, we discuss how data from alternative testing strategies can be used to facilitate engineered nanomaterial categorization according to risk potential and how such an approach could facilitate regulatory decision-making in the future.

The utility of the historical record in assessing future carbon budgets

Science.gov (United States)

Millar, R.; Friedlingstein, P.; Allen, M. R.

2017-12-01

It has long been known that the cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most physically relevant determiner of long-lived anthropogenic climate change, with an approximately linear relationship between CO2-induced global mean surface warming and cumulative emissions. The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emission and global mean warming using observations to date. Here we show that simple regression analysis indicates that the 1.5°C carbon budget would be exhausted after nearly three decades of current emissions, substantially in excess of many estimates from Earth System Models. However, there are many reasons to be cautious about carbon budget assessments from the historical record alone. Accounting for the uncertainty in non-CO2 radiative forcing using a simple climate model and a standard optimal fingerprinting detection attribution technique gives substantial uncertainty in the contribution of CO2 warming to date, and hence the transient climate response to cumulative emissions. Additionally, the existing balance between CO2 and non-CO2 forcing may change in the future under ambitious mitigation scenarios as non-CO2 emissions become more (or less) important to global mean temperature changes. Natural unforced variability can also have a substantial impact on estimates of remaining carbon budgets. By examining all warmings of a given magnitude in both the historical record and past and future ESM simulations we quantify the impact unforced climate variability may have on estimates of remaining carbon budgets, derived as a function of estimated non-CO2 warming and future emission scenario. In summary, whilst the historical record can act as a useful test of climate models, uncertainties in the response to future cumulative emissions remain large and extrapolations of future carbon budgets from the historical record alone should be treated with caution.

Assessment of the possible potential of photovoltaics in a medium-size city

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muehlbauer, A.; Schneider, A.

1995-01-01

One possibility to reduce CO 2 emissions is the application of photovoltaics (PV). This form of current generation is inexhaustible. It involves hardly any risks and can be disposed of at random. But what kind of potential do photovoltaics have? The disadvantages like low energy density, fluctuating availability and high costs are well known. What conclusions can thus be drawn for the future role of photovoltaics? The authors discuss these questions at the example of a medium-size German city and describe the main influencing factors for the future development. (orig.) [de

The potential impact of computer-aided assessment technology in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The potential impact of computer-aided assessment technology in higher education. ... Further more 'Increased number of students in Higher Education and the ... benefits, limitations, impacts on student learning and strategies for developing ...

The Abiotic Depletion Potential: Background, Updates, and Future

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lauran van Oers

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Depletion of abiotic resources is a much disputed impact category in life cycle assessment (LCA. The reason is that the problem can be defined in different ways. Furthermore, within a specified problem definition, many choices can still be made regarding which parameters to include in the characterization model and which data to use. This article gives an overview of the problem definition and the choices that have been made when defining the abiotic depletion potentials (ADPs for a characterization model for abiotic resource depletion in LCA. Updates of the ADPs since 2002 are also briefly discussed. Finally, some possible new developments of the impact category of abiotic resource depletion are suggested, such as redefining the depletion problem as a dilution problem. This means taking the reserves in the environment and the economy into account in the reserve parameter and using leakage from the economy, instead of extraction rate, as a dilution parameter.

The Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment Mission and its Potential Contributions to Human Exploration of Asteroids

Science.gov (United States)

Abell, Paul A.; Rivkin, Andy S.

2014-01-01

The joint ESA and NASA Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission will directly address aspects of NASA's Asteroid Initiative and will contribute to future human exploration. The NASA Asteroid Initiative is comprised of two major components: the Grand Challenge and the Asteroid Mission. The first component, the Grand Challenge, focuses on protecting Earth's population from asteroid impacts by detecting potentially hazardous objects with enough warning time to either prevent them from impacting the planet, or to implement civil defense procedures. The Asteroid Mission, involves sending astronauts to study and sample a near-Earth asteroid (NEA) prior to conducting exploration missions of the Martian system, which includes Phobos and Deimos. AIDA's primary objective is to demonstrate a kinetic impact deflection and characterize the binary NEA Didymos. The science and technical data obtained from AIDA will aid in the planning of future human exploration missions to NEAs and other small bodies. The dual robotic missions of AIDA, ESA's Asteroid Impact Monitor (AIM) and NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), will provide a great deal of technical and engineering data on spacecraft operations for future human space exploration while conducting in-depth scientific examinations of the binary target Didymos both prior to and after the kinetic impact demonstration. The knowledge gained from this mission will help identify asteroidal physical properties in order to maximize operational efficiency and reduce mission risk for future small body missions. The AIDA data will help fill crucial strategic knowledge gaps concerning asteroid physical characteristics that are relevant for human exploration considerations at similar small body destinations.

High temporal discounters overvalue immediate rewards rather than undervalue future rewards: an event-related brain potential study.

Science.gov (United States)

Cherniawsky, Avital S; Holroyd, Clay B

2013-03-01

Impulsivity is characterized in part by heightened sensitivity to immediate relative to future rewards. Although previous research has suggested that "high discounters" in intertemporal choice tasks tend to prefer immediate over future rewards because they devalue the latter, it remains possible that they instead overvalue immediate rewards. To investigate this question, we recorded the reward positivity, a component of the event-related brain potential (ERP) associated with reward processing, with participants engaged in a task in which they received both immediate and future rewards and nonrewards. The participants also completed a temporal discounting task without ERP recording. We found that immediate but not future rewards elicited the reward positivity. High discounters also produced larger reward positivities to immediate rewards than did low discounters, indicating that high discounters relatively overvalued immediate rewards. These findings suggest that high discounters may be more motivated than low discounters to work for monetary rewards, irrespective of the time of arrival of the incentives.

Applying comprehensive environmental assessment to research planning for multiwalled carbon nanotubes: Refinements to inform future stakeholder engagement.

Science.gov (United States)

Powers, Christina M; Grieger, Khara; Meacham, Connie A; Gooding, Meredith Lassiter; Gift, Jeffrey S; Lehmann, Geniece M; Hendren, Christine O; Davis, J Michael; Burgoon, Lyle

2016-01-01

Risk assessments and risk management efforts to protect human health and the environment can benefit from early, coordinated research planning by researchers, risk assessors, and risk managers. However, approaches for engaging these and other stakeholders in research planning have not received much attention in the environmental scientific literature. The Comprehensive Environmental Assessment (CEA) approach under development by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) is a means to manage complex information and input from diverse stakeholder perspectives on research planning that will ultimately support environmental and human health decision making. The objectives of this article are to 1) describe the outcomes of applying lessons learned from previous CEA applications to planning research on engineered nanomaterial, multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) and 2) discuss new insights and refinements for future efforts to engage stakeholders in research planning for risk assessment and risk management of environmental issues. Although framed in terms of MWCNTs, this discussion is intended to enhance research planning to support assessments for other environmental issues as well. Key insights for research planning include the potential benefits of 1) ensuring that participants have research, risk assessment, and risk management expertise in addition to diverse disciplinary backgrounds; 2) including an early scoping step before rounds of formal ratings; 3) using a familiar numeric scale (e.g., US dollars) versus ordinal rating scales of "importance"; 4) applying virtual communication tools to supplement face-to-face interaction between participants; and 5) refining criteria to guide development of specific, actionable research questions. © 2015 SETAC.

Probabilistic calculations and sensitivity analysis of parameters for a reference biosphere model assessing the potential exposure of a population to radionuclides from a deep geological repository

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Staudt, Christian; Kaiser, Jan Christian [Helmholtz Zentrum Muenchen, Institute of Radiation Protection, Munich (Germany); Proehl, Gerhard [International Atomic Energy Agency, Division of Radiation, Transport and Waste Safety, Wagramerstrasse 5, 1400 Vienna (Austria)

2014-07-01

Radioecological models are used to assess the exposure of hypothetical populations to radionuclides. Potential radionuclide sources are deep geological repositories for high level radioactive waste. Assessment time frames are long since releases from those repositories are only expected in the far future, and radionuclide migration to the geosphere biosphere interface will take additional time. Due to the long time frames, climate conditions at the repository site will change, leading to changing exposure pathways and model parameters. To identify climate dependent changes in exposure in the far field of a deep geological repository a range of reference biosphere models representing climate analogues for potential future climate states at a German site were developed. In this approach, model scenarios are developed for different contemporary climate states. It is assumed that the exposure pathways and parameters of the contemporary biosphere in the far field of the repository will change to be similar to those at the analogue sites. Since current climate models cannot predict climate developments over the assessment time frame of 1 million years, analogues for a range of realistically possible future climate conditions were selected. These climate states range from steppe to permafrost climate. As model endpoint Biosphere Dose conversion factors (BDCF) are calculated. The radionuclide specific BDCF describe the exposure of a population to radionuclides entering the biosphere in near surface ground water. The BDCF are subject to uncertainties in the exposure pathways and model parameters. In the presented work, probabilistic and sensitivity analysis was used to assess the influence of model parameter uncertainties on the BDCF and the relevance of individual parameters for the model result. This was done for the long half-live radionuclides Cs-135, I-129 and U-238. In addition to this, BDCF distributions for nine climate reference regions and several scenarios were

Cost development of future technologies for power generation-A study based on experience curves and complementary bottom-up assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neij, Lena

2008-01-01

Technology foresight studies have become an important tool in identifying realistic ways of reducing the impact of modern energy systems on the climate and the environment. Studies on the future cost development of advanced energy technologies are of special interest. One approach widely adopted for the analysis of future cost is the experience curve approach. The question is, however, how robust this approach is, and which experience curves should be used in energy foresight analysis. This paper presents an analytical framework for the analysis of future cost development of new energy technologies for electricity generation; the analytical framework is based on an assessment of available experience curves, complemented with bottom-up analysis of sources of cost reductions and, for some technologies, judgmental expert assessments of long-term development paths. The results of these three methods agree in most cases, i.e. the cost (price) reductions described by the experience curves match the incremental cost reduction described in the bottom-up analysis and the judgmental expert assessments. For some technologies, the bottom-up analysis confirms large uncertainties in future cost development not captured by the experience curves. Experience curves with a learning rate ranging from 0% to 20% are suggested for the analysis of future cost development

Future-Oriented LCA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, Stig Irving; Borup, Mads; Andersen, Per Dannemand

2018-01-01

LCA is often applied for decision-making that concerns actions reaching near or far into the future. However, traditional life cycle assessment methodology must be adjusted for the prospective and change-oriented purposes, but no standardised way of doing this has emerged yet. In this chapter some...... challenges are described and some learnings are derived. Many of the future-oriented LCAs published so far perform relatively short-term prediction of simple comparisons. But for more long-term time horizons foresight methods can be of help. Scenarios established by qualified experts about future...... technological and economic developments are indispensable in future technology assessments. The uncertainties in future-oriented LCAs are to a large extent qualitative and it is important to emphasise that LCA of future technologies will provide a set of answers and not ‘the’ answer....

Impact assessment of coastal hazards due to future changes of tropical cyclones in the North Pacific Ocean

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nobuhito Mori

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Tropical cyclones generate severe hazards in the middle latitudes. A brief review and applications of dynamical and statistical downscaling of tropical cyclone (TC are described targeting extreme storm surge and storm wave hazard assessment. First, a review of the current understanding of the changes in the characteristics of TCs in the past and in the future is shown. Then, a review and ongoing research about impact assessment of tropical cyclones both dynamical downscaling and statistical model are described for Typhoon Vera in 1959 and Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Finally, several examples of impact assessment of storm surge and extreme wave changes are presented. Changes in both TC intensity and track are linked to future changes in extreme storm surge and wave climate in middle latitude.

Assessment of market potential of compressed air energy storage systems

Science.gov (United States)

Boyd, D. W.; Buckley, O. E.; Clark, C. E., Jr.

1983-12-01

This report describes an assessment of potential roles that EPRI might take to facilitate the commercial acceptance of compressed air energy storage (CAES) systems. The assessment is based on (1) detailed analyses of the market potential of utility storage technologies, (2) interviews with representatives of key participants in the CAES market, and (3) a decision analysis synthesizing much of the information about market and technology status. The results indicate a large potential market for CAES systems if the overall business environment for utilities improves. In addition, it appears that EPRI can have a valuable incremental impact in ensuring that utilities realize the potential of CAES by (1) continuing an aggressive information dissemination and technology transfer program, (2) working to ensure the success of the first United States CAES installation at Soyland Power Cooperative, (3) developing planning methods to allow utilities to evaluate CAES and other storage options more effectively and more realistically, and (4) supporting R and D to resolve residual uncertainties in first-generation CAES cost and performance characteristics. Previously announced in STAR as N83-25121

Assessment of empirical potential for MOX nuclear fuels and thermomechanical properties

Science.gov (United States)

Balboa, Hector; Van Brutzel, Laurent; Chartier, Alain; Le Bouar, Yann

2017-11-01

We assess five empirical interatomic potentials in the approximation of rigid ions and pair interactions for the (U1-y,Puy)O solid solution. The assessment compares available experimental data and Fink's recommendation with simulations on: the structural, thermodynamics, and mechanical properties over the full range of plutonium composition, from pure UO2 to pure PuO2 and for temperatures ranging from 300 K to the melting point. The best results are obtained by potentials referred as Cooper and Potashnikov potentials. The first one reproduces more accurately recommendations for the thermodynamics and mechanical properties exhibiting ductile-like behaviour during crack propagation, while the second one gives brittle behaviour at low temperature.

Beyond integrated safeguards: Performance-based assessments for future nuclear controls

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pilat, Joseph F.; Budlong Sylvester, Kory W.

2001-01-01

Full text: In the future, if the nuclear nonproliferation and arms control agendas are to advance, they will likely become increasingly seen as parallel undertakings with the objective of comprehensive cradle-to-grave controls over nuclear materials and possibly even warheads removed from defense programs along with materials in civilian use. This 'back to the future' prospect was envisioned in the Acheson-Lillienthal Report and the Baruch Plan, and more modestly in the Atoms-for-Peace Proposal. Unlike the grand plans of the early nuclear years, today's and tomorrow's undertakings will more likely consist of a series of incremental steps with the goal of expanding nuclear controls. These steps will be undertaken at a time of fundamental change in the IAEA safeguards system, and they will be influenced by those changes in profound ways. This prospective influence needs to be taken into account as the IAEA develops and implements integrated safeguards, including its efforts to establish new safeguards criteria, undertake technological and administrative improvements in safeguards, implement credible capabilities for the detection of undeclared nuclear facilities and activities and, perhaps, provide for a more intensive involvement in applying safeguards in new roles such as the verification of a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty. Performance-based criteria offer one promising way to address the effectiveness of integrated safeguards and to provide a common means of assessing the other key areas of a comprehensive approach to nuclear controls as these develop independently and to the extent that they are coordinated in the future. (author)

Theoretical and practical aspects of measuring market potential

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bešlagić Mirza

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The area of research in this paper refers to the theoretical, practical and methodological aspects of the assessment of market potential. It presents the main factors relevant to assessing market potential. The process of evaluating the market potential is important, first of all, for optimal adoption of future strategic decisions in business. Planning of business processes is one of the main reasons for the assessment of the market potential and managers often face, when planning, the environmental factors that can not be influenced. Realistic and quality assessment of market potential and sales forecasting in companies becomes not only a means of gaining competitive advantage, but also a necessary condition for long-term development and survival in the market. Knowledge of the potential market increases the efficiency of business operations. To this end, the theoretical, methodological and practical problems of assessment of market potential were analyzed. The need for this is all the more pronounced because of objective, reliable and valid assessment of the market potential is a prerequisite of business improvement and long-term development of enterprises. The aim was to explain the characteristics of the market potential as one of the primary market sizes in order to carry out its assessment. In this context, it was necessary to identify the main factors influencing the assessment of market potential. Results of the study showed that factors of macro and micro environment of the company, competition and purchasing power determine the market potential of edible oil in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the empirical part of the paper are applied most common methods of assessment of market potential.

Assessment of the potential radiological impact of residual contamination in the Maralinga and Emu areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haywood, S.M.; Smith, J.

1990-10-01

The report presents an assessment of potential doses to future inhabitants of the Maralinga and Emu areas of Southern Australia, where nuclear weapons tests in the 1950s and 1960s resulted in widespread residual radioactive contamination. Annual effective doses of several millisieverts would be expected to result from continual occupancy within contours enclosing areas of several hundred square kilometres. Larger predicted annual effective doses - of the order of 0.5 Sv -would be expected to occur from 100% occupancy in small regions immediately surrounding the test sites, but continual occupancy of such areas is highly unlikely because of their small size. The most significant dose pathways are inhalation of resuspended activity and ingestion of soil by infants. An analysis of the effects of uncertainties in the dose calculation indicated the uncertainty distribution on predicted doses from the inhalation pathway. (author)

Modelling requirements for future assessments based on FEP analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Locke, J.; Bailey, L.

1998-01-01

This report forms part of a suite of documents describing the Nirex model development programme. The programme is designed to provide a clear audit trail from the identification of significant features, events and processes (FEPs) to the models and modelling processes employed within a detailed safety assessment. A scenario approach to performance assessment has been adopted. It is proposed that potential evolutions of a deep geological radioactive waste repository can be represented by a base scenario and a number of variant scenarios. The base scenario is chosen to be broad-ranging and to represent the natural evolution of the repository system and its surrounding environment. The base scenario is defined to include all those FEPs that are certain to occur and those which are judged likely to occur for a significant period of the assessment timescale. The structuring of FEPs on a Master Directed Diagram (MDD) provides a systematic framework for identifying those FEPs that form part of the natural evolution of the system and those, which may define alternative potential evolutions of the repository system. In order to construct a description of the base scenario, FEPs have been grouped into a series of conceptual models. Conceptual models are groups of FEPs, identified from the MDD, representing a specific component or process within the disposal system. It has been found appropriate to define conceptual models in terms of the three main components of the disposal system: the repository engineered system, the surrounding geosphere and the biosphere. For each of these components, conceptual models provide a description of the relevant subsystem in terms of its initial characteristics, subsequent evolution and the processes affecting radionuclide transport for the groundwater and gas pathways. The aim of this document is to present the methodology that has been developed for deriving modelling requirements and to illustrate the application of the methodology by

The Future of Contrast-Enhanced Mammography.

Science.gov (United States)

Covington, Matthew F; Pizzitola, Victor J; Lorans, Roxanne; Pockaj, Barbara A; Northfelt, Donald W; Appleton, Catherine M; Patel, Bhavika K

2018-02-01

The purpose of this article is to discuss facilitators of and barriers to future implementation of contrast-enhanced mammography (CEM) in the United States. CEM provides low-energy 2D mammographic images analogous to digital mammography and contrast-enhanced recombined images that allow assessment of neovascularity similar to that offered by MRI. The utilization of CEM in the United States is currently low but could increase rapidly given the many potential indications for its clinical use.

Aviation Safety Concerns for the Future

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Brian E.; Roelen, Alfred L. C.; den Hertog, Rudi

2016-01-01

The Future Aviation Safety Team (FAST) is a multidisciplinary international group of aviation professionals that was established to identify possible future aviation safety hazards. The principle was adopted that future hazards are undesirable consequences of changes, and a primary activity of FAST became identification and prioritization of possible future changes affecting aviation. Since 2004, FAST has been maintaining a catalogue of "Areas of Change" (AoC) that could potentially influence aviation safety. The horizon for such changes is between 5 to 20 years. In this context, changes must be understood as broadly as possible. An AoC is a description of the change, not an identification of the hazards that result from the change. An ex-post analysis of the AoCs identified in 2004 demonstrates that changes catalogued many years previous were directly implicated in the majority of fatal aviation accidents over the past ten years. This paper presents an overview of the current content of the AoC catalogue and a subsequent discussion of aviation safety concerns related to these possible changes. Interactions among these future changes may weaken critical functions that must be maintained to ensure safe operations. Safety assessments that do not appreciate or reflect the consequences of significant interaction complexity will not be fully informative and can lead to inappropriate trade-offs and increases in other risks. The FAST strongly encourages a system-wide approach to safety risk assessment across the global aviation system, not just within the domain for which future technologies or operational concepts are being considered. The FAST advocates the use of the "Areas of Change" concept, considering that several possible future phenomena may interact with a technology or operational concept under study producing unanticipated hazards.

Forest Products Industry of the Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Los Alamos Technical Associates, Inc

2002-05-01

Los Alamos Technical Associates, Inc (LATA) conducted an evaluation of the potential impact and value of a portion of the current portfolio of r&d projects supported by the Office of Industrial Technology and the Forest Products Industry of the Future. The mission of the evaluation was to (a) assess the potential impact of the projects to meet the critical goals of the industry as identified in the vision and roadmapping documents. (b) Evaluate the relationship between the current portfolio of projects and the Agenda 202 Implementation Plan. In addition, evaluate the relationship between the portfolio and the newly revised draft technology strategy being created by the industry. (c) Identify areas where current efforts are making significant progress towards meeting industry goals and identify areas where additional work my be required to meet these goals. (d) Make recommendations to the DOE and the Forest Products Industry on possible improvements in the portfolio and in the current methodology that DOE uses to assess potential impacts on its R&D activities.

Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rosa Björk Thorolfsdottir

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25-74. Calculations were based on combining: i data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland, ii population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study, and iii effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses. Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: (1 If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. (2 If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3 Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040. CONCLUSIONS: The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future.

Assessment of groundwater potential zones using multi-influencing factor (MIF) and GIS: a case study from Birbhum district, West Bengal

Science.gov (United States)

Thapa, Raju; Gupta, Srimanta; Guin, Shirshendu; Kaur, Harjeet

2017-11-01

Remote sensing and GIS play a vital role in exploration and assessment of groundwater and has wide application in detection, monitoring, assessment, conservation and various other fields of groundwater-related studies. In this research work, delineation of groundwater potential zone in Birbhum district has been carried out. Various thematic layers viz. geology, geomorphology, soil type, elevation, lineament and fault density, slope, drainage density, land use/land cover, soil texture, and rainfall are digitized and transformed into raster data in ArcGIS 10.3 environment as input factors. Thereafter, multi-influencing factor (MIF) technique is employed where ranks and weights, assigned to each factor are computed statistically. Finally, groundwater potential zones are classified into four categories namely low, medium, high and very high zone. It is observed that 18.41% (836.86 km2) and 34.41% (1563.98 km2) of the study area falls under `low' and `medium' groundwater potential zone, respectively. Approximately 1601.19 km2 area accounting for 35.23% of the study area falls under `high' category and `very high' groundwater potential zone encompasses an area of 542.98 km2 accounting for 11.95% of the total study area. Finally, the model generated groundwater potential zones are validated with reported potential yield data of various wells in the study area. Success and prediction rate curve reveals an accuracy achievement of 83.03 and 78%, respectively. The outcome of the present research work will help the local authorities, researchers, decision makers and planners in formulating better planning and management of groundwater resources in the study area in future perspectives.

Impact assessment of the carbon reduction strategy for transport, low carbon transport : a greener future

Science.gov (United States)

2009-07-01

This is an impact assessment for the Carbon Reduction Strategy for Transport (DfT, 2009), Low Carbon Transport: A Greener Future, which is part of the UK Governments wider UK Low Carbon Transition Plan (DECC, 2009), Britains path to ta...

Carbon offset potentials and design: Anticipating future public policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trexler, M.C.; Kosloff, L.H.; Gowen, M.

1994-01-01

Carbon offsets offer CO 2 emitters the opportunity to compensate for some proportion of their CO 2 emissions through the pursuit of emissions reduction or carbon sequestration projects beyond their own operational boundaries. The flexibility to pursue carbon offsets ''off-site'' can dramatically reduce the costs of achieving a given net emissions reduction. The future role of carbon offsets, however, continues to be a topic of considerable debate. Several processes are currently under way nationally and internationally that will help shape this role. This paper discusses how alternative policy outcomes could encourage or restrict the viability of carbon offsets as a component of corporate climate change mitigation portfolios and proposes criteria by which projects should be evaluated prior to the finalization of national or international policy frameworks. Based on these outcomes, the potential for offsets could be very large or very modest. It is vital that policy development in the offset arena account for the still voluntary nature of mitigation efforts and that the objective of climate change mitigation not be forgotten in the push for offset rules and regulations. At the same time, carbon offsets are far from a panacea for climate change mitigation and should be evaluated in the context of a larger global mitigation portfolio

An assessment of the regional potential for solar power generation in EU-28

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perpiña Castillo, Carolina; Batista e Silva, Filipe; Lavalle, Carlo

2016-01-01

In this study we aim at assessing the potential of European regions to solar power generation and its comparison with recent European Union (EU) incentives for the development of this renewable energy source. In this study we use a multi-criteria assessment (MCA) supported by Geographical Information System (GIS) to combine already existing information on solar radiation with other geographical factors such as slope, land use, urban extent and population distribution, as well as proximity to the power grid to generate a suitability map for photovoltaic (PV) power plants across the EU at high spatial resolution. A validation exercise showed that the resulting suitability map is a good predictor of appropriate locations for the deployment of PV power plants. The suitability map was in addition compared to the regional distribution of European funds for development of solar energy from the EU Cohesion policy (2007–2013 programme). Regions were classified according their overall suitability for solar energy power systems and the allocated solar investments by the EU Cohesion policy. This analysis allowed to identify potential mismatches between fund allocations and actual regional suitability for solar energy. It is recommended that future fund allocations take into account suitability criteria for solar energy for optimised results of public policies. - Highlights: • A European suitability map for the solar energy (PV) systems deployment is created. • PV systems can contribute in a sustainable energy production in many regions in EU. • There is no correlation among the EU investment and the suitability in solar energy. • Using marginal lands to place PV systems might avoid the uptake of agricultural land. • Validation of the EU suitability map demonstrated a satisfactory degree of accuracy.

E-assessment for learning? Exploring the potential of computer-marked assessment and computer-generated feedback, from short-answer questions to assessment analytics.

OpenAIRE

Jordan, Sally

2014-01-01

This submission draws on research from twelve publications, all addressing some aspect of the broad research question: “Can interactive computer-marked assessment improve the effectiveness of assessment for learning?” \\ud \\ud The work starts from a consideration of the conditions under which assessment of any sort is predicted to best support learning, and reviews the broader literature of assessment and feedback before considering the potential of computer-based assessment, focusing on relat...

Forests: the potential consequences of climate variability and change

Science.gov (United States)

USDA Forest Service

2001-01-01

This pamphlet reports the recent scientific assessment that analyzed how future climate variablity and change may affect forests in the United States. The assessment, sponsored by the USDA Forest Service, and supported, in part, by the U.S Department of Energy, and the National Atmospheric and Space Administration, describes the suite of potential impacts on forests....

Reduced cooling following future volcanic eruptions

Science.gov (United States)

Hopcroft, Peter O.; Kandlbauer, Jessy; Valdes, Paul J.; Sparks, R. Stephen J.

2017-11-01

Volcanic eruptions are an important influence on decadal to centennial climate variability. Large eruptions lead to the formation of a stratospheric sulphate aerosol layer which can cause short-term global cooling. This response is modulated by feedback processes in the earth system, but the influence from future warming has not been assessed before. Using earth system model simulations we find that the eruption-induced cooling is significantly weaker in the future state. This is predominantly due to an increase in planetary albedo caused by increased tropospheric aerosol loading with a contribution from associated changes in cloud properties. The increased albedo of the troposphere reduces the effective volcanic aerosol radiative forcing. Reduced sea-ice coverage and hence feedbacks also contribute over high-latitudes, and an enhanced winter warming signal emerges in the future eruption ensemble. These findings show that the eruption response is a complex function of the environmental conditions, which has implications for the role of eruptions in climate variability in the future and potentially in the past.

Dose assessment for potential radionuclide emissions from stacks on the Hanford Site: NESHAP compliance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, W.E.; Barnett, J.M.; Kenoyer, J.L.

1994-03-01

The purpose of this document is to present the assessment results for the registered stacks on the Hanford Site for potential emissions, i.e. emissions with no control devices in place. Further, the document will identify those stacks requiring continuous monitoring, i.e. the effective dose equivalent from potential emissions >0.1 mrem/yr. The stack assessment of potential emissions was performed on 84 registered stacks on the Hanford Site. These emission sources represent individual point sources presently registered under Washington Administrative code 246-247 with the Washington Department of Health. The methods used in assessing the potential emissions from the stacks are described

Palladium Nanoparticles: Toxicological Effects and Potential Implications for Occupational Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Veruscka Leso

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The increasing technological applications of palladium nanoparticles (Pd-NPs and their consequent enhancing release into the community and occupational environments, have raised public health concerns regarding possible adverse effects for exposed subjects, and particularly for workers chronically and highly exposed to these materials, whose toxico-kinetic and dynamic behavior remains to be fully understood. Therefore, this review aimed to critically analyze literature data to achieve a more comprehensive knowledge on the toxicological profile of Pd-NPs. Results from available studies demonstrated the potential for these chemicals to affect the ecosystem function, to exert cytotoxic and pro-inflammatory effects in vitro as well as to induce early alterations in different target organs in in vivo models. However, our revision pointed out the need for future studies aimed to clarify the role of the NP physico-chemical properties in determining their toxicological behavior, as well as the importance to carry out investigations focused on environmental and biological monitoring to verify and validate experimental biomarkers of exposure and early effect in real exposure contexts. Overall, this may be helpful to support the definition of suitable strategies for the assessment, communication and management of Pd-NP occupational risks to protect the health and safety of workers.

Comprehensive Environmental Assessment Applied to Multiwalled Carbon Nanotube Flame-Retardant Coatings in Upholstery Textiles: A Case Study Presenting Priority Research Gaps for Future Risk Assessments (Final Report)

Science.gov (United States)

In September 2013, EPA announced the availability of the final report, Comprehensive Environmental Assessment Applied to Multiwalled Carbon Nanotube Flame-Retardant Coatings in Upholstery Textiles: A Case Study Presenting Priority Research Gaps for Future Risk Assessments...

Linking hydrologic, physical and chemical habitat environments for the potential assessment of fish community rehabilitation in a developing city

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, C. S.; Yang, S. T.; Liu, C. M.; Dou, T. W.; Yang, Z. L.; Yang, Z. Y.; Liu, X. L.; Xiang, H.; Nie, S. Y.; Zhang, J. L.; Mitrovic, S. M.; Yu, Q.; Lim, R. P.

2015-04-01

Aquatic ecological rehabilitation is increasingly attracting considerable public and research attention. An effective method that requires less data and expertise would help in the assessment of rehabilitation potential and in the monitoring of rehabilitation activities as complicated theories and excessive data requirements on assemblage information make many current assessment models expensive and limit their wide use. This paper presents an assessment model for restoration potential which successfully links hydrologic, physical and chemical habitat factors to fish assemblage attributes drawn from monitoring datasets on hydrology, water quality and fish assemblages at a total of 144 sites, where 5084 fish were sampled and tested. In this model three newly developed sub-models, integrated habitat index (IHSI), integrated ecological niche breadth (INB) and integrated ecological niche overlap (INO), are established to study spatial heterogeneity of the restoration potential of fish assemblages based on gradient methods of habitat suitability index and ecological niche models. To reduce uncertainties in the model, as many fish species as possible, including important native fish, were selected as dominant species with monitoring occurring over several seasons to comprehensively select key habitat factors. Furthermore, a detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) was employed prior to a canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) of the data to avoid the "arc effect" in the selection of key habitat factors. Application of the model to data collected at Jinan City, China proved effective reveals that three lower potential regions that should be targeted in future aquatic ecosystem rehabilitation programs. They were well validated by the distribution of two habitat parameters: river width and transparency. River width positively influenced and transparency negatively influenced fish assemblages. The model can be applied for monitoring the effects of fish assemblage restoration

Assessing and Managing the Current and Future Pest Risk from Water Hyacinth, (Eichhornia crassipes), an Invasive Aquatic Plant Threatening the Environment and Water Security.

Science.gov (United States)

Kriticos, Darren J; Brunel, Sarah

2016-01-01

Understanding and managing the biological invasion threats posed by aquatic plants under current and future climates is a growing challenge for biosecurity and land management agencies worldwide. Eichhornia crassipes is one of the world's worst aquatic weeds. Presently, it threatens aquatic ecosystems, and hinders the management and delivery of freshwater services in both developed and developing parts of the world. A niche model was fitted using CLIMEX, to estimate the potential distribution of E. crassipes under historical and future climate scenarios. Under two future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for 2080 simulated with three Global Climate Models, the area with a favourable temperature regime appears set to shift polewards. The greatest potential for future range expansion lies in Europe. Elsewhere in the northern hemisphere temperature gradients are too steep for significant geographical range expansion under the climate scenarios explored here. In the Southern Hemisphere, the southern range boundary for E. crassipes is set to expand southwards in Argentina, Australia and New Zealand; under current climate conditions it is already able to invade the southern limits of Africa. The opportunity exists to prevent its spread into the islands of Tasmania in Australia and the South Island of New Zealand, both of which depend upon hydroelectric facilities that would be threatened by the presence of E. crassipes. In Europe, efforts to slow or stop the spread of E. crassipes will face the challenge of limited internal biosecurity capacity. The modelling technique demonstrated here is the first application of niche modelling for an aquatic weed under historical and projected future climates. It provides biosecurity agencies with a spatial tool to foresee and manage the emerging invasion threats in a manner that can be included in the international standard for pest risk assessments. It should also support more detailed local and regional management.

Assessing and Managing the Current and Future Pest Risk from Water Hyacinth, (Eichhornia crassipes, an Invasive Aquatic Plant Threatening the Environment and Water Security.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Darren J Kriticos

Full Text Available Understanding and managing the biological invasion threats posed by aquatic plants under current and future climates is a growing challenge for biosecurity and land management agencies worldwide. Eichhornia crassipes is one of the world's worst aquatic weeds. Presently, it threatens aquatic ecosystems, and hinders the management and delivery of freshwater services in both developed and developing parts of the world. A niche model was fitted using CLIMEX, to estimate the potential distribution of E. crassipes under historical and future climate scenarios. Under two future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for 2080 simulated with three Global Climate Models, the area with a favourable temperature regime appears set to shift polewards. The greatest potential for future range expansion lies in Europe. Elsewhere in the northern hemisphere temperature gradients are too steep for significant geographical range expansion under the climate scenarios explored here. In the Southern Hemisphere, the southern range boundary for E. crassipes is set to expand southwards in Argentina, Australia and New Zealand; under current climate conditions it is already able to invade the southern limits of Africa. The opportunity exists to prevent its spread into the islands of Tasmania in Australia and the South Island of New Zealand, both of which depend upon hydroelectric facilities that would be threatened by the presence of E. crassipes. In Europe, efforts to slow or stop the spread of E. crassipes will face the challenge of limited internal biosecurity capacity. The modelling technique demonstrated here is the first application of niche modelling for an aquatic weed under historical and projected future climates. It provides biosecurity agencies with a spatial tool to foresee and manage the emerging invasion threats in a manner that can be included in the international standard for pest risk assessments. It should also support more detailed local and regional

A Monte Carlo based decision-support tool for assessing generation portfolios in future carbon constrained electricity industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat; MacGill, Iain F.

2012-01-01

This paper presents a novel decision-support tool for assessing future generation portfolios in an increasingly uncertain electricity industry. The tool combines optimal generation mix concepts with Monte Carlo simulation and portfolio analysis techniques to determine expected overall industry costs, associated cost uncertainty, and expected CO 2 emissions for different generation portfolio mixes. The tool can incorporate complex and correlated probability distributions for estimated future fossil-fuel costs, carbon prices, plant investment costs, and demand, including price elasticity impacts. The intent of this tool is to facilitate risk-weighted generation investment and associated policy decision-making given uncertainties facing the electricity industry. Applications of this tool are demonstrated through a case study of an electricity industry with coal, CCGT, and OCGT facing future uncertainties. Results highlight some significant generation investment challenges, including the impacts of uncertain and correlated carbon and fossil-fuel prices, the role of future demand changes in response to electricity prices, and the impact of construction cost uncertainties on capital intensive generation. The tool can incorporate virtually any type of input probability distribution, and support sophisticated risk assessments of different portfolios, including downside economic risks. It can also assess portfolios against multi-criterion objectives such as greenhouse emissions as well as overall industry costs. - Highlights: ► Present a decision support tool to assist generation investment and policy making under uncertainty. ► Generation portfolios are assessed based on their expected costs, risks, and CO 2 emissions. ► There is tradeoff among expected cost, risks, and CO 2 emissions of generation portfolios. ► Investment challenges include economic impact of uncertainties and the effect of price elasticity. ► CO 2 emissions reduction depends on the mix of

The quantification of environmental indicators for sustainability assessment of future electricity supply options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simons, A.; Bauer, Ch.; Heck, T.

2011-02-01

Within the project NEEDS (New Energy Externalities Development for Sustainability) a range of criteria and indicators were defined according to the widely recognised 'three pillar' interpretation of sustainable development in order to assess future electricity generating technologies including their associated fuel cycles. The basic characteristics of the 26 technologies were defined as being appropriate in 2050 according to 'realistic/optimistic' development scenarios. The potential environmental impacts of each technology were assessed by initially determining the various criteria necessary to describe the range of significant impact areas. These criteria were then expressed and measured by one or more quantifiable indicators which were calculated using Life Cycle Inventories established earlier in the project. This report contributed to Research Stream RS2b of the project by quantifying and comparing the results of these indicators for each of the four countries used in the assessment: France, Germany, Switzerland and Italy. The environmental assessment showed that the nuclear technologies cause relatively very low impacts according to most of the indicators. The Generation IV, European Fast Reactor, has significant advantages over the European Pressurised Reactor but the availabilities of the two reactors will be quite different. Whereas the first examples of the EPR are already under construction, the design finalisation of the EFR is not yet complete meaning that the first plant is not expected to be constructed before 2040. An overarching and clear distinction between the fossil fueled technologies was less possible and the application of carbon capture and storage, whilst showing large reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, was shown to be counteracted in a number of other indicators. The integration of solid fuel gasification prior to combustion also showed both benefits and disadvantages. For most indicators, the natural gas combined cycle options

Assessment of nervous-muscular system’s potentials of cyclic kinds of sports sportsmen

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I.V. Skladanivska

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Purpose: to work out and substantiate methodic of assessment of nervous-muscular system’s potentials of elite sportsmen, representatives of cyclic kinds of sports. Material: in the research sportsmen of cyclic kinds of sports (n = 28 participated. Testing was conducted with the help of ergometer of bicycle type. Results: we present methodic of assessment of nervous-muscular system’s potentials of elite sportsmen with the help of surface electromyography. It was found that sportsmen with high aerobic potentials reach second electromyography threshold with power of work, corresponding, in average, 80.5% VO2 max. We also found confident correlation (r=0.59, р≤0.05 between maximal concentration of blood lactate and maximal amplitude of electromyogram. Conclusions: application of our approaches permits to assess reserve potential by type of muscle fibers, which influence on sportsman’s bent to certain kind of motor functioning. The worked out assessment system permits to determine contribution of different motor units’ types in achievement of required parameters of work.

NASA's Vision for Potential Energy Reduction from Future Generations of Propulsion Technology

Science.gov (United States)

Haller, Bill

2015-01-01

Through a robust partnership with the aviation industry, over the past 50 years NASA programs have helped foster advances in propulsion technology that enabled substantial reductions in fuel consumption for commercial transports. Emerging global trends and continuing environmental concerns are creating challenges that will very likely transform the face of aviation over the next 20-40 years. In recognition of this development, NASA Aeronautics has established a set of Research Thrusts that will help define the future direction of the agency's research technology efforts. Two of these thrusts, Ultra-Efficient Commercial Vehicles and Transition to Low-Carbon Propulsion, serve as cornerstones for the Advanced Air Transport Technology (AATT) project. The AATT project is exploring and developing high-payoff technologies and concepts that are key to continued improvement in energy efficiency and environmental compatibility for future generations of fixed-wing, subsonic transports. The AATT project is primarily focused on the N+3 timeframe, or 3 generations from current technology levels. As should be expected, many of the propulsion system architectures technologies envisioned for N+3 vary significantly from todays engines. The use of batteries in a hybrid-electric configuration or deploying multiple fans distributed across the airframe to enable higher bypass ratios are just two examples of potential advances that could enable substantial energy reductions over current propulsion systems.

Concentrating solar power. Its potential contribution to a sustainable energy future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-11-15

detail, much of what is presented in this report on the development of CSP technologies and economics will also be relevant to these alternative applications of CSP. Following a chapter summarising the policy context, the current status of CSP and associated thermal energy storage technologies are described in Chapters 3 and 4. Chapter 5 then discusses the economics of CSP, considering cost reduction potential and consequent time-frames for cost competitiveness, and the value of CSP with storage and/or auxiliary firing in electricity markets. The environmental impacts of CSP are evaluated in Chapter 6 before a review of the potential future contribution of CSP in Europe and the MENA region presented in Chapter 7. Conclusions and recommendations follow, with a bibliography of the references informing this report and annexes providing supporting detail, and a glossary of terms at Annex 2.

Measurement of human potential in organizations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rosa María Fuchs Ángeles

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Companies around the world are concerned about talent management in their organizations. The concern is to retain talented employees and this may not be possible if they are not properly identified. Performance and potential evaluations become then important. Performance evaluations qualify the historical record of the employee, so their measurement is provided. However, measuring the potential performance assesses potential future charges, therefore it is not a simple task. In this paper, characteristics evaluated in potential employees and tools that are commonly used are presented. Also, the case of four companies operating in Peru is shown.

Theoretical and Methodological Aspects of Assessment of the Adaptation Potential of Personnel

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sesina Iryna M.

2014-02-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to development of theoretical and methodological recommendations with respect to assessment of the adaptation potential of employees as an important prerequisite of development of employees and ensuring competitiveness of an enterprise. It contains the author’s interpretation of the adaptation potential as a possibility of adjusting to the environment with the aim of achieving socio-economic goals of an enterprise. Adaptation potential is a property of a person as a performer of labour functions and ability to master new methods of work, adjustment to new labour conditions, processing of information and also a communicative property. At the same time adaptation potential is an aggregate of motivational, professional, information and integration components of a person. For assessing the adaptation potential it is proposed to combine 360 degrees method and method of paired comparison, which facilitates increase of trustworthiness of results. The author marks out some criteria of assessment of the adaptation potential: ratio of professional experience, ratio of official experience, ratio of efficiency of work, independence in mastering new methods of work, fast adjustment to new labour conditions, ability to quickly process big volumes of information, mobility, high level of productivity under different labour conditions, sharpness of wit in different production situations, ability to form interpersonal relations in a collective and psychological features.

Assessment of dairy wastewater treatment and its potential for ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The extent of pollution of dairy wastewater treated in a septic tank and its potential for biogas production was investigated. Performance of the existing treatment system was assessed through characterization of both raw and treated effluents. From the analysis parameters likeChemical Oxygen Demand (COD), Biochemical ...

Impact of a Cross-Institutional Assessment Designed to Shape Future IT Professionals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grace Tan

2015-06-01

Full Text Available IT graduates need a suite of technical competencies and soft skills married with an understanding of the social and business contexts of the systems that they build. To instill in students an awareness of current IT industry practice coupled with the broader impact of their discipline in society, academics from Victoria University and Federation University initiated an across-institutional collaboration. The initiative resulted in a common formative assessment task undertaken by teams of students enrolled in each institution’s professional development units. An initial survey of students was undertaken prior to the assessment task. The survey queried students’ perceptions of a broad range of professional attitudes and skill sets needed by IT professionals when compared to non-skilled workers. Upon the completion of the assessment task, students were surveyed again as to their perceptions of the importance of personal skills, technical competencies, professional and team working skills, workplace knowledge, and cultural awareness for their future professional lives. Comparisons of both surveys’ results revealed that the cohort had a greater appreciation of technical abilities and team-working skills post the assessment task.

Forecasting the potential of Danish biogas production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bojesen, Mikkel; Skov-Petersen, Hans; Gylling, Morten

, except for those farms which are in the largest state class. Regional differences in development trends were documented. The strategic objective of the model is to provide data for the spatial assessment of the potential of biogas production which can form the basis for a location analysis for future...... biogas plants....

Potential exposure to Australian bat lyssavirus is unlikely to prevent future bat handling among adults in South East Queensland.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, M K; Banu, S; McCall, B J; Vlack, S; Carroll, H; Bennett, S; Davison, R; Francis, D

2018-02-01

Despite ongoing public health messages about the risks associated with bat contact, the number of potential exposures to Australian bat lyssavirus (ABLV) due to intentional handling by members of the general public in Queensland has remained high. We sought to better understand the reasons for intentional handling among these members of the public who reported their potential exposure to inform future public health messages. We interviewed adults who resided in a defined geographic area in South East Queensland and notified potential exposure to ABLV due to intentional handling of bats by telephone between 1 January 2012 and 31 December 2013. The participation rate was 54%. Adults who reported they had intentionally handled bats in South East Queensland indicated high levels of knowledge and perception of a moderately high risk associated with bats with overall low intentions to handle bats in the future. However, substantial proportions of people would attempt to handle bats again in some circumstances, particularly to protect their children or pets. Fifty-two percent indicated that they would handle a bat if a child was about to pick up or touch a live bat, and 49% would intervene if a pet was interacting with a bat. Future public health communications should recognize the situations in which even people with highrisk perceptions of bats will attempt to handle them. Public health messages currently focus on avoidance of bats in all circumstances and recommend calling in a trained vaccinated handler, but messaging directed at adults for circumstances where children or pets may be potentially exposed should provide safe immediate management options. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Assessment of future extreme climate events over the Porto wine Region

Science.gov (United States)

Viceto, Carolina; Cardoso, Susana; Marta-Almeida, Martinho; Gorodetskaya, Irina; Rocha, Alfredo

2017-04-01

The Douro Demarcated Region (DDR) is a wine region, in the northern Portugal, recognized for the Porto wine, which is responsible for more than 60% of the total value of national wine exportations. Since the viticulture is highly dependent on weather/climate patterns, the global warming is expected to affect the areas suitable to the growth of a certain variety of grape, its production and quality. This highlights the need of regional studies that assess the future climate changes effects in the vineyard, which might allow an early adjustment. We explore future climate change in the DDR region using a high-resolution regional climate model for Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) forced by the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model - low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR). Two future periods have been simulated using the emission scenario RCP8.5 - for the mid- (2046-2065) and late 21st century (2081-2100) - and compared to a reference period (1986-2005). The RCP8.5 is a "baseline" scenario without any climate mitigation and corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to other scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Our regional WRF implementation uses three online-nested domains with increasing resolution at a downscaling ratio of three. The coarser domain of 81-km resolution covers part of the North Atlantic Ocean and most of the Europe. The innermost 9-km horizontal resolution domain includes the Iberian Peninsula, a portion of Northern Africa and the adjacent part of the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. Our study uses this 9-km resolution domain and focuses on a confined area, which comprises the DDR. Such dynamical downscaling approach gives an advantage to assess climate effects on the DDR region, where the high horizontal resolution allows including effects of the oceanic coastline, local riverbeds and complex topography. The climatology of the DDR region determines the more suitable wine variety

Where’s the Transformation? Unlocking the Potential of Technology-Enhanced Assessment

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Trudy Sweeney

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This study provides insight into technology-enhanced assessment (TEA in diverse higher education contexts. The effectiveness of using technology for assessment in higher education is still equivocal, particularly in regard to evidence of improvements in student learning. This empirical research explores the affordances that technology offers to assessment for transforming student learning. A systematic literature review, guided by an analytic survey tool, was used to identify and interrogate recent scholarly articles published in 19 international journals. From a total of 1713 articles, 139 articles were identified as being focused on the use of technology for assessment. The analytic tool guided the rigorous exploration of the literature regarding the types of technology being used, the educational goal, the type of assessment, and the degree of “transformation” afforded by the technology. Results showed that, in the sample investigated, TEA is used most frequently for formative peer learning, as part of the task design and feedback stages of the assessment cycle, and that social media has been a major affordance for this. Results are discussed with a view to fostering a future culture of inquiry and scholarship around TEA in higher education.

Futures Analysis of Urban Land Use and Wetland Change in Saskatoon, Canada: An Application in Strategic Environmental Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anton Sizo

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a scenario-based approach to strategic environmental assessment (SEA for wetland trend analysis and land use and land cover (LUC modeling in an urban environment. The application is focused on the Saskatoon urban environment, a rapidly growing urban municipality in Canada’s prairie pothole region. Alternative future LUC was simulated using remote sensing data and city spatial planning documentation using a Markov Chain technique. Two alternatives were developed and compared for LUC change and threats to urban wetland sustainability: a zero alternative that simulated trends in urban development and wetland conservation under a business as usual scenario, in the absence of prescribed planning and zoning actions; and an alternative focused on implementation of current urban development plans, which simulated future LUC to account for prescribed wetland conservation strategies. Results show no improvement in future wetland conditions under the city’s planned growth and wetland conservation scenario versus the business as usual scenario. Results also indicate that a blanket wetland conservation strategy for the city may not be sufficient to overcome the historic trend of urban wetland loss; and that spatially distributed conservation rates, based on individual wetland water catchment LUC peculiarities, may be more effective in terms of wetland conservation. The paper also demonstrates the challenges to applied SEA in a rapidly changing urban planning context, where data are often sparse and inconsistent across the urban region, and provides potential solutions through LUC classification and prediction tools to help overcome data limitations to support land use planning decisions for wetland conservation.

Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern Germany

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Helge Walentowski

2017-07-01

Full Text Available We compared results derived using three different approaches to assess the suitability of common tree species on the Franconian Plateau in southern Germany under projected warmer and drier climate conditions in the period 2061-2080. The study area is currently a relatively warm and dry region of Germany. We calculated species distribution models (SDMs using information on species’ climate envelopes to predict regional species spectra under 63 different climate change scenarios. We complemented this with fine-scale ecological niche analysis using data from 51 vegetation surveys in seven forest reserves in the study area, and tree-ring analysis (TRA from local populations of five tree species to quantify their sensitivity to climatic extreme years. The SDMs showed that predicted future climate change in the region remains within the climate envelope of certain species (e.g. Quercus petraea, whilst for e.g. Fagus sylvatica, future climate conditions in one third of the scenarios are too warm and dry. This was confirmed by the TRA: sensitivity to drought periods is lower for Q. petraea than for F. sylvatica. The niche analysis shows that the local ecological niches of Quercus robur and Fraxinus excelsior are mainly characterized by soils providing favorable water supply than by climate, and Pinus sylvestris (planted is strongly influenced by light availability. The best adapted species for a warmer and potentially drier climate in the study region are Acer campestre, Sorbus torminalis, S. aria, Ulmus minor, and Tilia platyphyllos, which should therefore play a more prominent role in future climate-resilient mixed forest ecosystems.

Assessment of liquefaction potential during earthquakes by arias intensity

Science.gov (United States)

Kayen, R.E.; Mitchell, J.K.

1997-01-01

An Arias intensity approach to assess the liquefaction potential of soil deposits during earthquakes is proposed, using an energy-based measure of the severity of earthquake-shaking recorded on seismograms of the two horizontal components of ground motion. Values representing the severity of strong motion at depth in the soil column are associated with the liquefaction resistance of that layer, as measured by in situ penetration testing (SPT, CPT). This association results in a magnitude-independent boundary that envelopes initial liquefaction of soil in Arias intensity-normalized penetration resistance space. The Arias intensity approach is simple to apply and has proven to be highly reliable in assessing liquefaction potential. The advantages of using Arias intensity as a measure of earthquake-shaking severity in liquefaction assessment are: Arias intensity is derived from integration of the entire seismogram wave form, incorporating both the amplitude and duration elements of ground motion; all frequencies of recorded motion are considered; and Arias intensity is an appropriate measure to use when evaluating field penetration test methodologies that are inherently energy-based. Predictor equations describing the attenuation of Arias intensity as a function of earthquake magnitude and source distance are presented for rock, deep-stiff alluvium, and soft soil sites.

A Potential Transmitter Architecture for Future Generation Green Wireless Base Station

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mike Faulkner

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Current radio frequency power amplifiers in 3G base stations have very high power consumption leading to a hefty cost and negative environmental impact. In this paper, we propose a potential architecture design for future wireless base station. Issues associated with components of the architecture are investigated. The all-digital transmitter architecture uses a combination of envelope elimination and restoration (EER and pulse width modulation (PWM/pulse position modulation (PPM modulation. The performance of this architecture is predicted from the measured output power and efficiency curves of a GaN amplifier. 57% efficiency is obtained for an OFDM signal limited to 8 dB peak to average power ratio. The PWM/PPM drive signal is generated using the improved Cartesian sigma delta techniques. It is shown that an RF oversampling by a factor of four meets the WLAN spectral mask, and WCDMA specification is met by an RF oversampling of sixteen.

A Potential Transmitter Architecture for Future Generation Green Wireless Base Station

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cijvat Ellie

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Current radio frequency power amplifiers in 3G base stations have very high power consumption leading to a hefty cost and negative environmental impact. In this paper, we propose a potential architecture design for future wireless base station. Issues associated with components of the architecture are investigated. The all-digital transmitter architecture uses a combination of envelope elimination and restoration (EER and pulse width modulation (PWM/pulse position modulation (PPM modulation. The performance of this architecture is predicted from the measured output power and efficiency curves of a GaN amplifier. 57% efficiency is obtained for an OFDM signal limited to 8 dB peak to average power ratio. The PWM/PPM drive signal is generated using the improved Cartesian sigma delta techniques. It is shown that an RF oversampling by a factor of four meets the WLAN spectral mask, and WCDMA specification is met by an RF oversampling of sixteen.

Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Retèl Valesca P

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. Methods To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005 until the future (2020. Results In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY, meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. Conclusions When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process

Cord Blood Banking for Potential Future Transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Shearer, William T; Lubin, Bertram H; Cairo, Mitchell S; Notarangelo, Luigi D

2017-11-01

This policy statement is intended to provide information to guide pediatricians, obstetricians, and other medical specialists and health care providers in responding to parents' questions about cord blood donation and banking as well as the types (public versus private) and quality of cord blood banks. Cord blood is an excellent source of stem cells for hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in children with some fatal diseases. Cord blood transplantation offers another method of definitive therapy for infants, children, and adults with certain hematologic malignancies, hemoglobinopathies, severe forms of T-lymphocyte and other immunodeficiencies, and metabolic diseases. The development of universal screening for severe immunodeficiency assay in a growing number of states is likely to increase the number of cord blood transplants. Both public and private cord blood banks worldwide hold hundreds of thousands of cord blood units designated for the treatment of fatal or debilitating illnesses. The procurement, characterization, and cryopreservation of cord blood is free for families who choose public banking. However, the family cost for private banking is significant and not covered by insurance, and the unit may never be used. Quality-assessment reviews by several national and international accrediting bodies show private cord blood banks to be underused for treatment, less regulated for quality control, and more expensive for the family than public cord blood banks. There is an unquestionable need to study the use of cord blood banking to make new and important alternative means of reconstituting the hematopoietic blood system in patients with malignancies and blood disorders and possibly regenerating tissue systems in the future. Recommendations regarding appropriate ethical and operational standards (including informed consent policies, financial disclosures, and conflict-of-interest policies) are provided for physicians, institutions, and organizations that

Future and potential spending on health 2015-40

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dieleman, Joseph L.; Campbell, Madeline; Chapin, Abigail; Eldrenkamp, Erika; Fan, Victoria Y.; Haakenstad, Annie; Kates, Jennifer; Li, Zhiyin; Matyasz, Taylor; Micah, Angela; Reynolds, Alex; Sadat, Nafis; Schneider, Matthew T.; Sorensen, Reed; Abbas, Kaja M.; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir; Alam, Khurshid; Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza; Alkerwi, A.; Amini, Erfan; Ammar, Walid; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.; Atey, Tesfay Mehari; Avila-Burgos, Leticia; Awasthi, Ashish; Barac, Aleksandra; Berheto, Tezera Moshago; Beyene, Addisu Shunu; Beyene, Tariku Jibat; Birungi, Charles; Bizuayehu, Habtamu Mellie; Breitborde, Nicholas J.K.; Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero; Castro, Ruben Estanislao; Catalá-López, Ferran; Dalal, Koustuv; Dandona, Lalit; Dharmaratne, Rakhi Dandona Samath D.; Dubey, Manisha; Faro, Andé; Feigl, Andrea B.; Fischer, Florian; Anderson Fitchett, Joseph R.; Foigt, Nataliya; Giref, Ababi Zergaw; Gupta, Rahul; Hamidi, Samer; Harb, Hilda L.; Hay, Simon I.; Hendrie, Delia; Horino, Masako; Jürisson, Mikk; Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B.; Javanbakht, Mehdi; John, Denny; Jonas, Jost B.; Karimi, Seyed M.; Khang, Young Ho; Khubchandani, Jagdish; Kim, Yun Jin; Kinge, Jonas M.; Krohn, Kristopher J.; Kumar, G.A.; Leung, Ricky; Magdy Abd El Razek, Hassan; Magdy Abd El Razek, Mohammed; Majeed, Azeem; Malekzadeh, Reza; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Meretoja, Atte; Miller, Ted R.; Mirrakhimov, Erkin M.; Mohammed, Shafiu; Molla, Gedefaw; Nangia, Vinay; Olgiati, Stefano; Owolabi, Mayowa O.; Patel, Tejas; Paternina Caicedo, Angel J.; Pereira, David M.; Perelman, Julian; Polinder, Suzanne; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rai, Rajesh Kumar; Ram, Usha; Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal; Roba, Hirbo Shore; Savic, Miloje; Sepanlou, Sadaf G.; Ao, Te Braden J.; Tesema, Azeb Gebresilassie; Thomson, Alan J.; Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan; Topor-Madry, Roman; Undurraga, Eduardo A.; Vargas, Veronica; Vasankari, Tommi; Violante, Francesco S.; Wijeratne, Tissa; Xu, Gelin; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Younis, Mustafa Z.; Yu, Chuanhua; Zaidi, Zoubida; Sayed Zaki, El Maysaa; Murray, Christopher J.L.

2017-01-01

Background: The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future

Assessing hydrologic impacts of future Land Change scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

Science.gov (United States)

Kepner, W. G.; Burns, S.; Sidman, G.; Levick, L.; Goodrich, D. C.; Guertin, P.; Yee, W.; Scianni, M.

2012-12-01

An approach was developed to characterize the hydrologic impacts of urban expansion through time for the San Pedro River, a watershed of immense international importance that straddles the U.S./Mexico border. Future urban growth is a key driving force altering local and regional hydrology and is represented by decadal changes in housing density maps from 2010 to 2100 derived from the Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) database. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize the hydrologic impacts of future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The presentation will report 1) the methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate basin-wide impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) initial results of the application of the methodology, and 3) discuss implications of the analysis.

Bioactive glasses potential biomaterials for future therapy

CERN Document Server

Kaur, Gurbinder

2017-01-01

This book describes the history, origin and basic characteristics of bioactive materials. It includes a chapter dedicated to hydroxyapatite mineral, its formation and its bioactive properties. The authors address how cytotoxicity is a determining step for bioactivity. Applications of bioactive materials in the contexts of tissue regeneration, bone regeneration and cancer therapy are also covered. Silicate, metallic and mesoporous glasses are described, as well as the challenges and future prospects of research in this field.

Traumatic brain injury: future assessment tools and treatment prospects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steven R Flanagan

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Steven R Flanagan1, Joshua B Cantor2, Teresa A Ashman21New York University School of Medicine, The Rusk Institute of Rehabilitation, New York, NY, USA; 2Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, NY, USAAbstract: Traumatic brain injury (TBI is widespread and leads to death and disability in millions of individuals around the world each year. Overall incidence and prevalence of TBI are likely to increase in absolute terms in the future. Tackling the problem of treating TBI successfully will require improvements in the understanding of normal cerebral anatomy, physiology, and function throughout the lifespan, as well as the pathological and recuperative responses that result from trauma. New treatment approaches and combinations will need to be targeted to the heterogeneous needs of TBI populations. This article explores and evaluates the research evidence in areas that will likely lead to a reduction in TBI-related morbidity and improved outcomes. These include emerging assessment instruments and techniques in areas of structural/chemical and functional neuroimaging and neuropsychology, advances in the realms of cell-based therapies and genetics, promising cognitive rehabilitation techniques including cognitive remediation and the use of electronic technologies including assistive devices and virtual reality, and the emerging field of complementary and alternative medicine.Keywords: traumatic brain injury, assessments, treatments

Supplementary guidance for the investigation and risk-assessment of potentially contaminated sediments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baker, K.; Spadaro, P.; Starr, J.; Thomas, J. [Arcadis, Arnhem (Netherlands); Hildenbrand, B. [Energy Institute, London (United Kingdom); Smith, J.W.N.; Dunk, M.; Grosjean, T.; De Ibarra, M.; Medve, A.; Den Haan, K.

2013-11-15

This report provides guidance on the investigation and assessment of potentially contaminated sediments, focusing on the inland, estuarine and coastal environments. It is designed as a complementary, technical companion document to Energy Institute and CONCAWE (2013) report 'Guidance on characterising, assessing and managing risks associated with potentially contaminated sediments' (Report E1001). It highlights a number of significant challenges associated with assessing the aquatic and water bottom environment, which means that a sediment assessment should not be undertaken lightly. Where a decision is taken to undertake a site assessment, this report promotes the use of an iterative process of Conceptual Site Model (CSM) development, data collection, data evaluation and a continuous CSM refinement, taking into account the results obtained. Risk-based assessment is described throughout the report, entailing four tiers of assessment, which progress from a qualitative assessment (Tier 0) through to a detailed cause-attribution assessment (Tier 3), in which the decrease in uncertainty in the assessment process is balanced against the increased costs and timescales with progress to a higher tier assessment. The application of this evidence-driven risk-based approach to sediment site management, including remedial control measures, should help to overcome at least some of the challenges associated with contaminants in sediment sites in Europe, and promote a sustainable approach to sediment management on a case-by-case basis.

On the assessment of cross-border regions' development potential

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bilchak Mikhail

2011-06-01

Full Text Available This article sets out to assess the potential of cross-border region development on the basis of theoretical and methodological materials. The study examines the Kaliningrad region and Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship. The article is focused on the modelling of interindustry balance and export/import functions of border territories.

Assessment of the Larvicidal potentials of Thymol derivatives on ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

DR. MIKE HORSFALL

*Corresponding author: E-mail. Assessment of the Larvicidal potentials of Thymol derivatives on Anopheles mosquitoes. 1JACK, I R; 1OKOROSAYE-ORUBITE, K; 2BOBMANUEL, R B. 1Department of Chemistry, Rivers State University of Science and Technology, P.M.B. 5080, Port Harcourt, Nigeria. 2Department of Biology ...

The Belem Framework for Action: Harnessing the Power and Potential of Adult Learning and Education for a Viable Future

Science.gov (United States)

Adult Learning, 2012

2012-01-01

This article presents the Belem Framework for Action. This framework focuses on harnessing the power and potential of adult learning and education for a viable future. This framework begins with a preamble on adult education and towards lifelong learning.

Human factors measurement for future air traffic control systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Langan-Fox, Janice; Sankey, Michael J; Canty, James M

2009-10-01

This article provides a critical review of research pertaining to the measurement of human factors (HF) issues in current and future air traffic control (ATC). Growing worldwide air traffic demands call for a radical departure from current ATC systems. Future systems will have a fundamental impact on the roles and responsibilities of ATC officers (ATCOs). Valid and reliable methods of assessing HF issues associated with these changes, such as a potential increase (or decrease) in workload, are of utmost importance for advancing theory and for designing systems, procedures, and training. We outline major aviation changes and how these relate to five key HF issues in ATC. Measures are outlined, compared, and evaluated and are followed by guidelines for assessing these issues in the ATC domain. Recommendations for future research are presented. A review of the literature suggests that situational awareness and workload have been widely researched and assessed using a variety of measures, but researchers have neglected the areas of trust, stress, and boredom. We make recommendations for use of particular measures and the construction of new measures. It is predicted that, given the changing role of ATCOs and profound future airspace requirements and configurations, issues of stress, trust, and boredom will become more significant. Researchers should develop and/or refine existing measures of all five key HF issues to assess their impact on ATCO performance. Furthermore, these issues should be considered in a holistic manner. The current article provides an evaluation of research and measures used in HF research on ATC that will aid research and ATC measurement.

Assessment of the physiological potential of super sweet corn seeds

OpenAIRE

Alvarenga,Renata Oliveira; Marcos-Filho,Julio; Timóteo,Tathiana Silva

2013-01-01

The assessment of physiological potential is essential in seed quality control programs. This study compared the sensitivity of different procedures for evaluating super sweet corn seed vigor, focusing on the primary root protrusion test. Six seed lots, each of the SWB 551 and SWB 585 hybrids, were used. Seed physiological potential was evaluated by germination and vigor tests (speed of germination, traditional and saturated salt accelerated aging, cold test, seedling length, seedling emergen...

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 1: Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mai, T.; Wiser, R.; Sandor, D.; Brinkman, G.; Heath, G.; Denholm, P.; Hostick, D.J.; Darghouth, N.; Schlosser, A.; Strzepek, K.

2012-06-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

How to assess the mutagenic potential of cosmetic products without animal tests?

Science.gov (United States)

Speit, Günter

2009-08-01

Animal experiments (in vivo tests) currently play a key role in genotoxicity testing. Results from in vivo tests are, in many cases, decisive for the assessment of a mutagenic potential of a test compound. The Seventh Amendment to the European Cosmetics Directive will, however, ban the European marketing of cosmetic/personal care products that contain ingredients that have been tested in animal experiments. If genotoxicity testing is solely based on the currently established in vitro tests, the attrition rate for chemicals used in cosmetic products will greatly increase due to irrelevant positive in vitro test results. There is urgent need for new and/or improved in vitro genotoxicity tests and for modified test strategies. Test strategies should consider all available information on chemistry of the test substance/the chemical class (e.g. SAR, metabolic activation and dermal adsorption). Test protocols for in vitro genotoxicity tests should be sensitive and robust enough to ensure that negative results can be accepted with confidence. It should be excluded that positive in vitro test results are due to high cytotoxicity or secondary genotoxic effects which may be thresholded and/or only occur under in vitro test conditions. Consequently, further research is needed to establish the nature of thresholds in in vitro assays and to determine the potential for incorporation of mode of action data into future risk assessments. New/improved tests have to be established and validated, considering the use of (metabolically competent) primary (skin) cells, 3D skin models and cells with defined capacity for metabolic activation (e.g. genetically engineered cell lines). The sensitivity and specificity of new and improved genotoxicity tests has to be determined by testing a battery of genotoxic and non-genotoxic chemicals. New or adapted international guidelines will be needed for these tests. The establishment of such a new genotoxicity testing strategy will take time and the

Towards the next generation of climate change assessment: learning from past experiences to inform a sustainable future

Science.gov (United States)

Mach, K. J.; Field, C. B.

2017-12-01

Over decades, assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and many others has bolstered understanding of the climate problem: unequivocal warming, pervasive impacts, and serious risks from continued high emissions of heat-trapping gases. Societies are increasingly responding with early actions to decarbonize energy systems and prepare for impacts. This emerging era of climate solutions creates a need for new approaches to assessment that emphasize learning from ongoing real-world experiences and that help close the gap between aspirations and the pace of progress. Against this backdrop, the presentation will take stock of recent advances and challenges in assessment, especially drawing from analysis of climate change assessment. Four assessment priorities will be considered: (1) integrating diverse evidence including quantitative and qualitative results, (2) applying rigorous expert judgment in evaluating knowledge and uncertainties, (3) exploring widely ranging futures and their connections to ongoing choices and actions, and (4) incorporating interactions among experts and decision-makers in assessment processes. Across these assessment priorities, the presentation will critique both opportunities and pitfalls, outlining possibilities for future experimentation, innovation, and learning. It will evaluate, in particular, lessons from risk-based approaches; strategies for transparently acknowledging persistent uncertainties and contested priorities; ways to minimize biases and foster creativity in expert judgments; scenario-based assessment of surprises, deep uncertainties, and decision-making implications; and opportunities for broadening the conception of expertise and engaging different decision-makers and stakeholders. Overall, these approaches can advance assessment products and processes as a basis for sustained dialogue supporting decision-making.

How to manage uncertainty in future Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) scenarios addressing the effect of climate change in crop production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Niero, Monia; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Bagger Jørgensen, Rikke

2015-01-01

When Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used to provide insights on how to pursue future food demand, it faces the challenge to describe scenarios of the future in which the environmental impacts occur. In the case of future crop production, the effects of climate change should be considered. In this......When Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used to provide insights on how to pursue future food demand, it faces the challenge to describe scenarios of the future in which the environmental impacts occur. In the case of future crop production, the effects of climate change should be considered....... In this context, the objectives of this paper are two-fold: (i) to recommend an approach to deal with uncertainty in scenario analysis for LCA of crop production in a changed climate, when the goal of the study is to suggest strategies for adaptation of crop cultivation practices towards low environmental impacts...... climate, soil, water loss and production parameters. Secondly, the handling of these factors in the inventory modeling is discussed and finally implemented in the case study. Our approach follows a 3-step procedure consisting of: (1) definition of a baseline scenario at the Life Cycle Inventory (LCI...

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 1. Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hand, M. M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Baldwin, S. [U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States); DeMeo, E. [Renewable Energy Consulting, Chicago, IL (United States); Reilly, J. M. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Mai, T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Arent, D. [Joint Inst. for Strategic Energy Analysis, Boulder, CO (United States); Porro, G. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Meshek, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sandor, D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2012-06-15

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/

Future bio-energy potential under various natural constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Vliet, Jasper van; Stehfest, Elke

2009-01-01

Potentials for bio-energy have been estimated earlier on the basis of estimates of potentially available land, excluding certain types of land use or land cover (land required for food production and forests). In this paper, we explore how such estimates may be influenced by other factors such as land degradation, water scarcity and biodiversity concerns. Our analysis indicates that of the original bio-energy potential estimate of 150, 80 EJ occurs in areas classified as from mild to severe land degradation, water stress, or with high biodiversity value. Yield estimates were also found to have a significant impact on potential estimates. A further 12.5% increase in global yields would lead to an increase in bio-energy potential of about 50%. Changes in bio-energy potential are shown to have a direct impact on bio-energy use in the energy model TIMER, although the relevant factor is the bio-energy potential at different cost levels and not the overall potential.

Future Climate Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

James Houseworth

2001-01-01

This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure 1), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Revision 00 of this AMR was prepared in accordance with the ''Work Direction and Planning Document for Future Climate Analysis'' (Peterman 1999) under Interagency Agreement DE-AI08-97NV12033 with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The planning document for the technical scope, content, and management of ICN 01 of this AMR is the ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (BSC 2001a). The scope for the TBV resolution actions in this ICN is described in the ''Technical Work Plan for: Integrated Management of Technical Product Input Department''. (BSC 2001b, Addendum B

Future Climate Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

James Houseworth

2001-10-12

This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure 1), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Revision 00 of this AMR was prepared in accordance with the ''Work Direction and Planning Document for Future Climate Analysis'' (Peterman 1999) under Interagency Agreement DE-AI08-97NV12033 with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The planning document for the technical scope, content, and management of ICN 01 of this AMR is the ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (BSC 2001a). The scope for the TBV resolution actions in this ICN is described in the ''Technical Work Plan for: Integrated Management of Technical

Assessment of future natural gas vehicle concepts

Science.gov (United States)

Groten, B.; Arrigotti, S.

1992-10-01

The development of Natural Gas Vehicles is progressing rapidly under the stimulus of recent vehicle emission regulations. The development is following what can be viewed as a three step progression. In the first step, contemporary gasoline or diesel fueled automobiles are retrofitted with equipment enabling the vehicle to operate on either natural gas or standard liquid fuels. The second step is the development of vehicles which utilize traditional internal combustion engines that have been modified to operate exclusively on natural gas. These dedicated natural gas vehicles operate more efficiently and have lower emissions than the dual fueled vehicles. The third step is the redesigning, from the ground up, of a vehicle aimed at exploiting the advantages of natural gas as an automotive fuel while minimizing its disadvantages. The current report is aimed at identifying the R&D needs in various fuel storage and engine combinations which have potential for providing increased efficiency, reduced emissions, and reductions in vehicle weight and size. Fuel suppliers, automobile and engine manufacturers, many segments of the natural gas and other industries, and regulatory authorities will influence or be affected by the development of such a third generation vehicle, and it is recommended that GRI act to bring these groups together in the near future to begin, developing the focus on a 'designed-for-natural-gas' vehicle.

PAU-SA: A Synthetic Aperture Interferometric Radiometer Test Bed for Potential Improvements in Future Missions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Merce Vall-llosera

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS mission is an Earth Explorer Opportunity mission from the European Space Agency (ESA. Its goal is to produce global maps of soil moisture and ocean salinity using the Microwave Imaging Radiometer by Aperture Synthesis (MIRAS. The purpose of the Passive Advanced Unit Synthetic Aperture (PAU-SA instrument is to study and test some potential improvements that could eventually be implemented in future missions using interferometric radiometers such as the Geoestacionary Atmosferic Sounder (GAS, the Precipitation and All-weather Temperature and Humidity (PATH and the Geostationary Interferometric Microwave Sounder (GIMS. Both MIRAS and PAU-SA are Y-shaped arrays with uniformly distributed antennas, but the receiver topology and the processing unit are quite different. The purpose of this work is to identify the elements in the MIRAS’s design susceptible of improvement and apply them in the PAU-SA instrument demonstrator, to test them in view of these future interferometric radiometer missions.

Harmonising bioenergy resource potentials-Methodological lessons from review of state of the art bioenergy potential assessments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Batidzirai, B.; Smeets, E.M.W.; Faaij, A.P.C.

2012-01-01

Published estimates of the potential of bioenergy vary widely, mainly due to the heterogeneity of methodologies, assumptions and datasets employed. These discrepancies are confusing for policy and it is thus important to have scientific clarity on the basis of the assessment outcomes. Such clear

Potential Predictability of ZPD of Children’s Cognitive Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Parviz Birjandi

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Obtaining information on whether the child has the potential for growth is not an easy task. Research shows that using different matrix like Raven or different batteries in a static way cannot
be indicative of children further development. This study attempts to probe the potential predictability of children’s performance during Dynamic Assessment of their Future development.
41 children between ages 3 to 6 years old participated in this study. The data in pretest, ZPD, and posttest were converted into Rasch Measure. The results of different analysis indicate that relying on children’s actual performance cannot be an indicative factor of their development in the future.

Manitoba: path to a hydrogen future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parsons, R.V.; Crone, J.

2003-01-01

A hydrogen economy is not just about future clean energy but is also about future economic development. It is about new products, new services, new knowledge, and renewable energy sources that will be ultimately used by consumers in the future, and thus represent potential new economic opportunities. The concept of achieving important environmental and health goals through a cleaner energy economy, based on hydrogen, is not new. Similarly, the desire of individual jurisdictions to seek out and develop economic development opportunities is not new. The key question today becomes one of how to plot directions on hydrogen that will yield appropriate economic development gains in the future. While hydrogen offers significant promise, the prospect benefits are recognized to be still largely long-term in nature. In addition, the ability to identify appropriate future directions is clouded by a degree of 'hydrogen hype' and by a variety of major technical and market uncertainties. During 2002, a unique process was initiated within Manitoba combining these elements to work toward a Hydrogen Economic Development Strategy, a strategy that is ultimately intended to lead the province as a whole to determining our future economic niches for hydrogen. This paper describes the nature of the assessment process undertaken within Manitoba, the outcomes achieved and general insights of relevance to a broader audience. (author)

Predicting future glacial lakes in Austria using different modelling approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Otto, Jan-Christoph; Helfricht, Kay; Prasicek, Günther; Buckel, Johannes; Keuschnig, Markus

2017-04-01

Glacier retreat is one of the most apparent consequences of temperature rise in the 20th and 21th centuries in the European Alps. In Austria, more than 240 new lakes have formed in glacier forefields since the Little Ice Age. A similar signal is reported from many mountain areas worldwide. Glacial lakes can constitute important environmental and socio-economic impacts on high mountain systems including water resource management, sediment delivery, natural hazards, energy production and tourism. Their development significantly modifies the landscape configuration and visual appearance of high mountain areas. Knowledge on the location, number and extent of these future lakes can be used to assess potential impacts on high mountain geo-ecosystems and upland-lowland interactions. Information on new lakes is critical to appraise emerging threads and potentials for society. The recent development of regional ice thickness models and their combination with high resolution glacier surface data allows predicting the topography below current glaciers by subtracting ice thickness from glacier surface. Analyzing these modelled glacier bed surfaces reveals overdeepenings that represent potential locations for future lakes. In order to predict the location of future glacial lakes below recent glaciers in the Austrian Alps we apply different ice thickness models using high resolution terrain data and glacier outlines. The results are compared and validated with ice thickness data from geophysical surveys. Additionally, we run the models on three different glacier extents provided by the Austrian Glacier Inventories from 1969, 1998 and 2006. Results of this historical glacier extent modelling are compared to existing glacier lakes and discussed focusing on geomorphological impacts on lake evolution. We discuss model performance and observed differences in the results in order to assess the approach for a realistic prediction of future lake locations. The presentation delivers

Obstetrician-assessed maternal health at pregnancy predicts offspring future health.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Debbie A Lawlor

2007-08-01

Full Text Available We aimed to examine the association between obstetrician assessment of maternal physical health at the time of pregnancy and offspring cardiovascular disease risk.We examined this association in a birth cohort of 11,106 individuals, with 245,000 person years of follow-up. We were concerned that any associations might be explained by residual confounding, particularly by family socioeconomic position. In order to explore this we used multivariable regression models in which we adjusted for a range of indicators of socioeconomic position and we explored the specificity of the association. Specificity of association was explored by examining associations with other health related outcomes. Maternal physical health was associated with cardiovascular disease: adjusted (socioeconomic position, complications of pregnancy, birthweight and childhood growth at mean age 5 hazard ratio comparing those described as having poor or very poor health at the time of pregnancy to those with good or very good health was 1.55 (95%CI: 1.05, 2.28 for coronary heart disease, 1.91 (95%CI: 0.99, 3.67 for stroke and 1.57 (95%CI: 1.13, 2.18 for either coronary heart disease or stroke. However, this association was not specific. There were strong associations for other outcomes that are known to be related to socioeconomic position (3.61 (95%CI: 1.04, 12.55 for lung cancer and 1.28 (95%CI:1.03, 1.58 for unintentional injury, but not for breast cancer (1.10 (95%CI:0.48, 2.53.These findings demonstrate that a simple assessment of physical health (based on the appearance of eyes, skin, hair and teeth of mothers at the time of pregnancy is a strong indicator of the future health risk of their offspring for common conditions that are associated with poor socioeconomic position and unhealthy behaviours. They do not support a specific biological link between maternal health across her life course and future risk of cardiovascular disease in her offspring.

Assessment of the potential of hybrid vehicles: Summary

Science.gov (United States)

Surber, F. T.

1980-01-01

The potential of hybrid vehicles as a replacement of the conventional gasoline or diesel fueled internal combustion engine vehicle within the next 20 to 30 years, was assessed. Hybrid vehicle designs and applications which are technically and economically viable were studied to determine if reductions in petroleum usage were large enough to warrant major expenditures of research and development funds. Critical technical areas where research and development can be most usefully concentrated were identified.

Methodology used for total system performance assessment of the potential nuclear waste repository at yucca mountain (USA)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Devonec, E.; Sevougian, S.D.; Mattie, P.D.; Mcneish, J.A.; Mishra, S.

2001-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors are currently evaluating a site in Nevada (Yucca Mountain) for disposal of high-level radioactive waste from U.S. commercial nuclear plants and U.S. government-owned facilities. The suitability of the potential geologic repository is assessed, based on its performance in isolating the nuclear waste from the environment. Experimental data and models representing the natural and engineered barriers are combined into a Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) model. Because of the uncertainty in the current data and in the future evolution of the total system, simulations follow a probabilistic approach. Multiple realization simulations using Monte Carlo analysis are conducted over time periods of up to one million years, which estimates a range of possible behaviors of the repository. In addition to the nominal scenario, other exposure scenarios include the possibility of disruptive events such as volcanic eruption or intrusion, or accidental human intrusion. Sensitivity to key uncertain processes is analyzed. The influence of stochastic variables on the TSPA model output is assessed by ''uncertainty importance analysis'', e.g., regression analysis and classification tree analysis. Further investigation of the impact of parameters and assumptions is conducted through ''one-off analysis'', which consists in fixing a parameter at a particular value, using an alternative conceptual model, or in making a different assumption. Finally, robustness analysis evaluates the performance of the repository when various natural or engineered barriers are assumed to be degraded. The objective of these analyses is to evaluate the performance of the potential repository system under conditions ranging from expected to highly unlikely, though physically possible conditions. (author)

Methodology used for total system performance assessment of the potential nuclear waste repository at yucca mountain (USA)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Devonec, E.; Sevougian, S.D.; Mattie, P.D.; Mcneish, J.A. [Duke Engineering and Services, Town Center Drive, Las Vegas (United States); Mishra, S. [Duke Engineering and Services, Austin, TX (United States)

2001-07-01

The U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors are currently evaluating a site in Nevada (Yucca Mountain) for disposal of high-level radioactive waste from U.S. commercial nuclear plants and U.S. government-owned facilities. The suitability of the potential geologic repository is assessed, based on its performance in isolating the nuclear waste from the environment. Experimental data and models representing the natural and engineered barriers are combined into a Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) model. Because of the uncertainty in the current data and in the future evolution of the total system, simulations follow a probabilistic approach. Multiple realization simulations using Monte Carlo analysis are conducted over time periods of up to one million years, which estimates a range of possible behaviors of the repository. In addition to the nominal scenario, other exposure scenarios include the possibility of disruptive events such as volcanic eruption or intrusion, or accidental human intrusion. Sensitivity to key uncertain processes is analyzed. The influence of stochastic variables on the TSPA model output is assessed by ''uncertainty importance analysis'', e.g., regression analysis and classification tree analysis. Further investigation of the impact of parameters and assumptions is conducted through ''one-off analysis'', which consists in fixing a parameter at a particular value, using an alternative conceptual model, or in making a different assumption. Finally, robustness analysis evaluates the performance of the repository when various natural or engineered barriers are assumed to be degraded. The objective of these analyses is to evaluate the performance of the potential repository system under conditions ranging from expected to highly unlikely, though physically possible conditions. (author)

Development and validation of an instrument to assess future orientation and resilience in adolescence.

Science.gov (United States)

Di Maggio, Ilaria; Ginevra, Maria Cristina; Nota, Laura; Soresi, Salvatore

2016-08-01

The study is aimed at providing the development and initial validation of the Design My Future (DMF), which may be administered in career counseling and research activities to assess adolescents' future orientation and resilience. Two studies with two independent samples of Italian adolescents were conducted to examine psychometric requisites of DMF. Specifically, in the first study, after developing items and examined the content validity, the factorial structure, reliability and discriminant validity of the DMF were tested. In the second study, the measurement invariance across gender, conducing a sequence of nested CFA models, was evaluated. Results showed good psychometric support for the instrument with Italian adolescents. Copyright © 2016 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Epibenthic Assessment of a Renewable Tidal Energy Site

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emma V. Sheehan

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Concern over global climate change as a result of fossil fuel use has resulted in energy production from renewable sources. Marine renewable energy devices provide clean electricity but can also cause physical disturbance to the local environment. There is a considerable paucity of ecological data at potential marine renewable energy sites that is needed to assess potential future impacts and allow optimal siting of devices. Here, we provide a baseline benthic survey for the Big Russel in Guernsey, UK, a potential site for tidal energy development. To assess the suitability of proposed sites for marine renewable energy in the Big Russel and to identify potential control sites, we compared species assemblages and habitat types. This baseline survey can be used to select control habitats to compare and monitor the benthic communities after installation of the device and contribute towards the optimal siting of any future installation.

The crysophere as a resource and hazard - Integrated framework for the assessment of future water resource vulnerability and glacial hazard risk assessment in the Kullu district, Himachal Pradesh, India.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Simon; Awasthi, Kirtiman; Ballesteros, Juan Antonio; Frey, Holger; Huggel, Christian; Kahn, Mustafa; Linsbauer, Andreas; Rohrer, Mario; Ruiz-Villanueva, Virginia; Salzmann, Nadine; Schauwecker, Simone; Stoffel, Markus

2014-05-01

High mountain environments are particularly susceptible to changes in atmospheric temperature and precipitation patterns, owing to the sensitivity of cryospheric components to melting conditions, and the importance of rainfall and river runoff for sustaining crops and livelihoods. The Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh (population ca. 6 mil.) is the initial focus of a joint program between the governments of India and Switzerland aiming to build scientific capacity to understand the threat, and plan for adaptation to climate change in the Himalaya. Here we focus on the cryosphere, and provide an overview of the integrated framework we will follow to assess future water resource vulnerability from changes in runoff, and assess future disaster risk from mass movement and flood hazards. At this early stage of our project, we aim to identify key methodological steps, data requirements, and related challenges. The initial implementation of our framework will be centered on the Kullu district. Core and integrative components of both the traditional climate vulnerability framework (eg., IPCC AR4), and the vulnerability and risk concepts of the disaster risk management community (eg., IPCC SREX 2012) include the assessment of sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. Sensitivity to water vulnerability in the Kullu district requires the quantification of current and future water resource usage at the block or community level, using metrics such as total irrigated land area, total electricity usage, population density and birth rates. Within the disaster risk framework, sensitivity to mass movement and flood hazards will be determined based on factors such as population density and demographics (notably age and gender), strength of building materials etc. Projected temperature and precipitation data from regional climate model output will be used to model changes in melt water runoff and streamflow, determining the exposure of communities and natural systems to future

Preliminary Assessment of Potential Impacts to Dungeness Crabs from Disposal of Dredged Materials from the Columbia River

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pearson, Walter H.; Miller, Martin C.; Williams, Greg D.; Kohn, Nancy P.; Skalski, John R.

2006-02-01

Dredging of the Columbia River navigation channel has raised concerns about dredging-related impacts on Dungeness crabs (Cancer magister). The overall objectives of this effort are to synthesize what is known about disposal effects on Dungeness crabs (Phase 1) and to offer approaches to quantify the effects, including approaches to gain a population-level perspective on any effects found in subsequent studies (Phase 2). This report documents Phase 1, which included (1) development of a conceptual model to integrate knowledge about crab biology and the physical processes occurring during disposal, (2) application of physics-based numerical modeling of the disposal event to understand the physical forces and processes to which a crab might be exposed during disposal, (3) conduct of a vulnerability analysis to identify the potential mechanisms by which crabs may be injured, and (4) recommendations of topics and approaches for future studies to assess the potential population-level effects of disposal on Dungeness crabs. The conceptual model first recognizes that disposal of dredged materials is a physically dynamic process with three aspects: (1) convective descent and bottom encounter, (2) dynamic collapse and spreading, and (3) mounding. Numerical modeling was used to assess the magnitude of the potentially relevant forces and extent of mounding in single disposal events. The modeling outcomes show that predicted impact pressure, shear stress, and mound depth are greatly reduced by discharge in deep water, and somewhat reduced at longer discharge duration. The analysis of numerical modeling results and vulnerabilities indicate that the vulnerability of crabs to compression forces under any of the disposal scenarios is low. For the deep-water disposal scenarios, the maximum forces and mounding do not appear to be sufficiently high enough to warrant concern for surge currents or burial at the depths involved (over 230 ft). For the shallow-water (45 to 65 ft), short

Assessment of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over Himalayan region for future climate

Science.gov (United States)

Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P.

2018-04-01

Precipitation is one of the important climatic indicators in the global climate system. Probable changes in monsoonal (June, July, August and September; hereafter JJAS) mean precipitation in the Himalayan region for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways or RCPs) and two future time slices (near and far) are estimated from a set of regional climate simulations performed under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) project. For each of the CORDEX-SA simulations and their ensemble, projections of near future (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099) precipitation climatology with respect to corresponding present climate (1970-2005) over Himalayan region are presented. The variability existing over each of the future time slices is compared with the present climate variability to determine the future changes in inter annual fluctuations of monsoonal mean precipitation. The long-term (1970-2099) trend (mm/day/year) of monsoonal mean precipitation spatially distributed as well as averaged over Himalayan region is analyzed to detect any change across twenty-first century as well as to assess model uncertainty in simulating the precipitation changes over this period. The altitudinal distribution of difference in trend of future precipitation from present climate existing over each of the time slices is also studied to understand any elevation dependency of change in precipitation pattern. Except for a part of the Hindu-Kush area in western Himalayan region which shows drier condition, the CORDEX-SA experiments project in general wetter/drier conditions in near future for western/eastern Himalayan region, a scenario which gets further intensified in far future. Although, a gradually increasing precipitation trend is seen throughout the twenty-first century in carbon intensive scenarios, the distribution of trend with elevation presents a very complex picture with lower elevations

Preparing Potential Senior Army Leaders for the Future: An Assessment of Leader Development Efforts in the Post-Cold War Era

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Johnson, David

2002-01-01

... that could prove problematic in future missions. The paper then describes the current institutional training most relevant to developing competencies for such missions and notes its limited attention to the nondoctrinal, other-than-war missions...

T2* mapping for articular cartilage assessment: principles, current applications, and future prospects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hesper, Tobias; Bittersohl, Daniela; Krauspe, Ruediger; Zilkens, Christoph [University Duesseldorf, Department of Orthopaedics Medical Faculty, Duesseldorf (Germany); Hosalkar, Harish S. [Center of Hip Preservation and Children' s Orthopaedics, San Diego, CA (United States); Welsch, Goetz H. [Medical University of Vienna, MR Center, Department of Radiology, Vienna (Austria); Bittersohl, Bernd [University Duesseldorf, Department of Orthopaedics Medical Faculty, Duesseldorf (Germany); Heinrich-Heine University, Medical School, Department of Orthopaedics, Duesseldorf (Germany)

2014-10-15

With advances in joint preservation surgery that are intended to alter the course of osteoarthritis by early intervention, accurate and reliable assessment of the cartilage status is critical. Biochemically sensitive MRI techniques can add robust biomarkers for disease onset and progression, and therefore, could be meaningful assessment tools for the diagnosis and follow-up of cartilage abnormalities. T2* mapping could be a good alternative because it would combine the benefits of biochemical cartilage evaluation with remarkable features including short imaging time and the ability of high-resolution three-dimensional cartilage evaluation - without the need for contrast media administration or special hardware. Several in vitro and in vivo studies, which have elaborated on the potential of cartilage T2* assessment in various cartilage disease patterns and grades of degeneration, have been reported. However, much remains to be understood and certain unresolved questions have become apparent with these studies that are crucial to the further application of this technique. This review summarizes the principles of the technique and current applications of T2* mapping for articular cartilage assessment. Limitations of recent studies are discussed and the potential implications for patient care are presented. (orig.)

Methodology Used for Total System Performance Assessment of the Potential Nuclear Waste Repository at Yucca Mountain (USA)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

E. Devibec; S.D. Sevougian; P.D. Mattie; J.A. McNeish; S. Mishra

2001-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors are currently evaluating a site in Nevada (Yucca Mountain) for disposal of high-level radioactive waste from U.S. commercial nuclear plants and U.S. government-owned facilities. The suitability of the potential geologic repository is assessed, based on its performance in isolating the nuclear waste from the environment. Experimental data and models representing the natural and engineered barriers are combined into a Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) model [1]. Process models included in the TSPA model are unsaturated zone flow and transport, thermal hydrology, in-drift geochemistry, waste package degradation, waste form degradation, engineered barrier system transport, saturated zone flow and transport, and biosphere transport. Because of the uncertainty in the current data and in the future evolution of the total system, simulations follow a probabilistic approach. Multiple realization simulations using Monte Carlo analysis are conducted over time periods of up to one million years, which estimates a range of possible behaviors of the repository. The environmental impact is measured primarily by the annual dose received by an average member of a critical population group residing 20 km down-gradient of the potential repository. In addition to the nominal scenario, other exposure scenarios include the possibility of disruptive events such as volcanic eruption or intrusion, or accidental human intrusion. Sensitivity to key uncertain processes is analyzed. The influence of stochastic variables on the TSPA model output is assessed by ''uncertainty importance analysis'', e.g., regression analysis and classification tree analysis. Further investigation of the impact of parameters and assumptions is conducted through ''one-off analysis'', which consists in fixing a parameter at a particular value, using an alternative conceptual model, or in making a different assumption. Finally, robustness analysis evaluates

Projections of future extreme weather losses under changes in climate and exposure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bouwer, L.M.

2013-01-01

Many attempts are made to assess future changes in extreme weather events due to anthropogenic climate change, but few studies have estimated the potential change in economic losses from such events. Projecting losses is more complex as it requires insight into the change in the weather hazard but

Assessment of Pseudomonas aeruginosa N5,N10-methylenetetrahydrofolate dehydrogenase-cyclohydrolase as a potential antibacterial drug target.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas C Eadsforth

Full Text Available The bifunctional enzyme methylenetetrahydrofolate dehydrogenase - cyclohydrolase (FolD is identified as a potential drug target in Gram-negative bacteria, in particular the troublesome Pseudomonas aeruginosa. In order to provide a comprehensive and realistic assessment of the potential of this target for drug discovery we generated a highly efficient recombinant protein production system and purification protocol, characterized the enzyme, carried out screening of two commercial compound libraries by differential scanning fluorimetry, developed a high-throughput enzyme assay and prosecuted a screening campaign against almost 80,000 compounds. The crystal structure of P. aeruginosa FolD was determined at 2.2 Å resolution and provided a template for an assessment of druggability and for modelling of ligand complexes as well as for comparisons with the human enzyme. New FolD inhibitors were identified and characterized but the weak levels of enzyme inhibition suggest that these compounds are not optimal starting points for future development. Furthermore, the close similarity of the bacterial and human enzyme structures suggest that selective inhibition might be difficult to attain. In conclusion, although the preliminary biological data indicates that FolD represents a valuable target for the development of new antibacterial drugs, indeed spurred us to investigate it, our screening results and structural data suggest that this would be a difficult enzyme to target with respect to developing the appropriate lead molecules required to underpin a serious drug discovery effort.

'Underutilised' agricultural land: its definitions, potential use for future biomass production and its environmental implications

Science.gov (United States)

Miyake, Saori; Bargiel, Damian

2017-04-01

A growing bioeconomy and increased demand for biomass products on food, health, fibre, industrial products and energy require land resources for feedstock production. It has resulted in significant environmental and socio-economic challenges on a global scale. As a result, consideration of such effects of land use change (LUC) from biomass production (particularly for biofuel feedstock) has emerged as an important area of policy and research, and several potential solutions have been proposed to minimise such adverse LUC effects. One of these solutions is the use of lands that are not in production or not suitable for food crop production, such as 'marginal', 'degraded', 'abandoned' and 'surplus' agricultural lands for future biomass production. The terms referring to these lands are usually associated with the potential production of 'marginal crops', which can grow in marginal conditions (e.g. poor soil fertility, low rainfall, drought) without much water and agrochemical inputs. In our research, we referred to these lands as 'underutilised' agricultural land and attempted to define them for our case study areas located in Australia and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Our goal is to identify lands that can be used for future biomass production and to evaluate their environmental implications, particularly impacts related to biodiversity, water and soil at a landscape scale. The identification of these lands incorporates remote sensing and spatially explicit approaches. Our findings confirmed that there was no universal or single definition of the term 'underutilised' agricultural land as the definitions significantly vary by country and region depending not only on the biophysical environment but also political, institutional and socio-economic conditions. Moreover, our results highlighted that the environmental implications of production of biomass on 'underutilised' agricultural land for biomass production are highly controversial. Thus land use change

Early results and future challenges of the Danish Fracture Database

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gromov, K.; Brix, Michael; Kallemose, T.

2014-01-01

INTRODUCTION: The Danish Fracture Database (DFDB) was established in 2011 to establish nationwide prospective quality assessment of all fracture-related surgery. In this paper, we describe the DFDB's setup, present preliminary data from the first annual report and discuss its future potential...... of osteosynthesis were the three most common indications for reoperation and accounted for 34%, 14% and 13%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The DFDB is an online database for registration of fracture-related surgery that allows for basic quality assessment of surgical fracture treatment and large-scale observational...

Future transportation: Lifetime considerations and framework for sustainability assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sweeting, Walter J.; Winfield, Patricia H.

2012-01-01

Modern society cannot exist without mobility. It is now essential to maintain access to everyday necessities, as well as being a vital part of most economies. However, our current transportation system is placing unsustainable demands on finite resources of fossil fuels, minerals and materials; change is therefore essential. Identifying rational choices is difficult because a future transport option must not only abate these demands over the entire lifetime, but do so at an affordable cost whilst maintaining acceptable levels of utility. This paper offers a framework to evaluate powertrains for whole life criteria, in order to help validate current and future developments. It supports integrated comparisons of both fuel and vehicle technology combinations for cost, energy and greenhouse gas emissions throughout a vehicles lifetime. Case studies illustrate the use of this framework. All powertrains were found to require considerable amounts of energy and emit some emissions over their whole lifetime. Significant benefits over incumbent vehicles were found to be potentially attainable through the use of alternative powertrains. However, the majority of these benefits were currently found to increase user costs, worsen the vehicle production impacts and be heavily reliant on the source of the vehicles in-use energy. - Highlight: ► Cost, energy and GHG emissions throughout a vehicle’s lifetime are evaluated. ► This paper offers a structure to evaluate powertrains for whole life criteria. ► Substantial amounts of energy and emissions were evident for all options. ► Significant environmental benefits over incumbent vehicles were found. ► In-use benefits were shown to shift impacts to other phases of a vehicle’s lifetime.

Assessment of potential heart donors: A statement from the French heart transplant community.

Science.gov (United States)

Dorent, Richard; Gandjbakhch, Estelle; Goéminne, Céline; Ivanes, Fabrice; Sebbag, Laurent; Bauer, Fabrice; Epailly, Eric; Boissonnat, Pascale; Nubret, Karine; Amour, Julien; Vermes, Emmanuelle; Ou, Phalla; Guendouz, Soulef; Chevalier, Philippe; Lebreton, Guillaume; Flecher, Erwan; Obadia, Jean-François; Logeart, Damien; de Groote, Pascal

2018-02-01

Assessment of potential donors is an essential part of heart transplantation. Despite the shortage of donor hearts, donor heart procurement from brain-dead organ donors remains low in France, which may be explained by the increasing proportion of high-risk donors, as well as the mismatch between donor assessment and the transplant team's expectations. Improving donor and donor heart assessment is essential to improve the low utilization rate of available donor hearts without increasing post-transplant recipient mortality. This document provides information to practitioners involved in brain-dead donor management, evaluation and selection, concerning the place of medical history, electrocardiography, cardiac imaging, biomarkers and haemodynamic and arrhythmia assessment in the characterization of potential heart donors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the Economic Potential for a Mercosur Rice Futures Market

OpenAIRE

Waldemar Antonio da Rocha de Souza; João Gomes Martines-Filho; Claudio Zancan; Antonio Carlos Silva Costa; Andreza Galindo Alves de Queiróz

2015-01-01

World rice production reached 488.4 thousand tons, in 2012. Asian countries are the world’s largest rice producers, followed by Latinamerica, particularly Brazil, where rice is a basic food item. In spite of the clear economic benefits bestowed by commodity futures markets, neither Asia nor Mercosur have implemented a regional rice futures market. In sum, we propose to investigate the feasibility of a Brazilian rice futures contract to serve the Mercosur region by estimating Me...

THE ASSESSMENT OF ENTREPRENEURIAL PERSONALITY: THE CURRENT SITUATION AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Javier Suárez-Álvarez

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Entrepreneurship is fundamental in modern society because it represents an important source of innovation, employment, productivity, and growth. While the first theoretical models arose from economic and sociological approaches, psychology provides models that integrate different aspects such as cognitions, attitudes and personality, which allow a more detailed study. The purpose of this paper is to show the main contributions of psychology to the assessment of the enterprising personality. For this purpose, the main models and instruments developed to date were reviewed. The results confirm that the enterprising personality has a multidimensional structure and eight personality traits can be highlighted: achievement motivation, risk-taking, autonomy, self-efficacy, stress tolerance, innovativeness, internal locus of control, and optimism. From a methodological point of view, Item Response Theory and Computerised Adaptive Tests represent the most advanced and modern methods for assessing enterprising personality. There are currently several measurement instruments available. Future areas of research should be directed at the construction of multidimensional models as well as providing alternatives that facilitate a reduction in social desirability and other biases inherent in self-reports.

Rapid Analysis of Eukaryotic Bioluminescence to Assess Potential Groundwater Contamination Events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zacariah L. Hildenbrand

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Here we present data using a bioluminescent dinoflagellate, Pyrocystis lunula, in a toxicological bioassay to rapidly assess potential instances of groundwater contamination associated with natural gas extraction. P. lunula bioluminescence can be quantified using spectrophotometry as a measurement of organismal viability, with normal bioluminescent output declining with increasing concentration(s of aqueous toxicants. Glutaraldehyde and hydrochloric acid (HCl, components used in hydraulic fracturing and shale acidization, triggered significant toxicological responses in as little as 4 h. Conversely, P. lunula was not affected by the presence of arsenic, selenium, barium, and strontium, naturally occurring heavy metal ions potentially associated with unconventional drilling activities. If exogenous compounds, such as glutaraldehyde and HCl, are thought to have been introduced into groundwater, quantification of P. lunula bioluminescence after exposure to water samples can serve as a cost-effective detection and risk assessment tool to rapidly assess the impact of putative contamination events attributed to unconventional drilling activity.

Using Life Cycle Assessment to identify potential environmental impacts of an agrifood sector: Application to the PDO Beaujolais and Burgundia wine sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Penavayre Sophie

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The environmental impacts of the production system of emblematic French product under official quality marks was investigated using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA methodology. The study looks at the PDO Beaujolais and Burgundy sector from a broad perspective, i.e. encompassing all steps linked with the products themselves but also complementary activities that belong to this wine sector. To build the Life Cycle Inventory (LCI, a methodology deriving from both product and organizational LCA was developed and applied. The LCI was built using a bottom-up approach. Inventories were first built for a sample of 17 representative companies. Then, these inventories were scaled-up to complete the global LCI at the agrifood sector level. Potential environmental impacts were assessed for 8 indicators. The LCA results show potential environmental impacts for each life cycle step: grape production, wine making and aging, packaging, distribution and activity of stakeholders belonging to the “close environment”. It provided two main outcomes: (i a methodology for the construction of an LCI adapted to the perimeter of an agrifood sector and composed by high quality data; and (ii the identification of potential environmental impacts of the studied agrifood sector, providing assistance for the definition of their strategic orientations for the future.

Assessing geothermal energy potential in upstate New York. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hodge, D.S. [SUNY, Buffalo, NY (United States)

1996-08-01

The potential of geothermal energy for future electric power generation in New York State is evaluated using estimates of temperatures of geothermal reservoir rocks. Bottom hole temperatures from over 2000 oil and gas wells in the region were integrated into subsurface maps of the temperatures for specific geothermal reservoirs. The Theresa/Potsdam formation provides the best potential for extraction of high volumes of geothermal fluids. The evaluation of the Theresa/Potsdam geothermal reservoir in upstate New York suggests that an area 30 miles east of Elmira, New York has the highest temperatures in the reservoir rock. The Theresa/Potsdam reservoir rock should have temperatures about 136 {degrees}C and may have as much as 450 feet of porosity in excess of 8%. Estimates of the volumes of geothermal fluids that can be extracted are provided and environmental considerations for production from a geothermal well is discussed.

Potential ecological risk assessment and predicting zinc accumulation in soils

OpenAIRE

Baran, Agnieszka; Wieczorek, Jerzy; Mazurek, Ryszard; Urbański, Krzysztof; Klimkowicz-Pawlas, Agnieszka

2017-01-01

The aims of this study were to investigate zinc content in the studied soils; evaluate the efficiency of geostatistics in presenting spatial variability of zinc in the soils; assess bioavailable forms of zinc in the soils and to assess soil–zinc binding ability; and to estimate the potential ecological risk of zinc in soils. The study was conducted in southern Poland, in the Malopolska Province. This area is characterized by a great diversity of geological structures and types of land use and...

Procrastination, consideration of future consequences, and episodic future thinking.

Science.gov (United States)

Rebetez, Marie My Lien; Barsics, Catherine; Rochat, Lucien; D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Van der Linden, Martial

2016-05-01

Despite the intrinsic temporal nature of procrastination, little research has examined the link between this form of self-regulatory failure and the consideration of future consequences, and no study has addressed the link between procrastination and episodic future thinking. The aim of the present study was to explore these relationships. Participants were asked to project themselves into possible future events and to rate the amount of sensory-perceptual details and autonoetic consciousness associated with their representations. They were also asked to complete questionnaires that assessed procrastination, the consideration of future consequences, and negative affect. Results showed that both the consideration of future consequences and episodic future thinking were associated with procrastination, and in particular with procrastination-related decision making abilities and procrastination-related motivational dispositions, respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Global wind power potential: Physical and technological limits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castro, Carlos de; Mediavilla, Margarita; Miguel, Luis Javier; Frechoso, Fernando

2011-01-01

This paper is focused on a new methodology for the global assessment of wind power potential. Most of the previous works on the global assessment of the technological potential of wind power have used bottom-up methodologies (e.g. ). Economic, ecological and other assessments have been developed, based on these technological capacities. However, this paper tries to show that the reported regional and global technological potential are flawed because they do not conserve the energetic balance on Earth, violating the first principle of energy conservation (). We propose a top-down approach, such as that in , to evaluate the physical-geographical potential and, for the first time, to evaluate the global technological wind power potential, while acknowledging energy conservation. The results give roughly 1 TW for the top limit of the future electrical potential of wind energy. This value is much lower than previous estimates and even lower than economic and realizable potentials published for the mid-century (e.g. ). - Highlights: → Reported wind power potentials are flawed because they violate energy conservation. → For the first time, it is evaluated the technological wind power potential with a top-down approach. → Our results show 1 TWe for the limit of wind power energy, which is much lower than previous estimates.

Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elgowainy, Amgad [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States; Han, Jeongwoo [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States; Ward, Jacob [United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States; Joseck, Fred [United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States; Gohlke, David [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States; Lindauer, Alicia [United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States; Ramsden, Todd [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado 80401, United States; Biddy, Mary [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado 80401, United States; Alexander, Mark [Electric Power Research Institute, Palo; Barnhart, Steven [FCA US LLC, Auburn Hills, Michigan 48326, United States; Sutherland, Ian [General Motors, Pontiac, Michigan 48340, United States; Verduzco, Laura [Chevron Corporation, Richmond, California 94802, United States; Wallington, Timothy J. [Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, Michigan 48121, United States

2018-01-30

This article presents a cradle-to-grave (C2G) assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs for current (2015) and future (2025-2030) light-duty vehicles. The analysis addressed both fuel cycle and vehicle manufacturing cycle for the following vehicle types: gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flex fuel vehicles, compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Gasoline ICEVs using current technology have C2G emissions of ~450 gCO2e/mi (grams of carbon dioxide equivalents per mile), while C2G emissions from HEVs, PHEVs, H2 FCEVs, and BEVs range from 300-350 gCO2e/mi. Future vehicle efficiency gains are expected to reduce emissions to ~350 gCO2/mi for ICEVs and ~250 gCO2e/mi for HEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs, and BEVs. Utilizing low-carbon fuel pathways yields GHG reductions more than double those achieved by vehicle efficiency gains alone. Levelized costs of driving (LCDs) are in the range $0.25-$1.00/mi depending on time frame and vehicle-fuel technology. In all cases, vehicle cost represents the major (60-90%) contribution to LCDs. Currently, HEV and PHEV petroleum-fueled vehicles provide the most attractive cost in terms of avoided carbon emissions, although they offer lower potential GHG reductions. The ranges of LCD and cost of avoided carbon are narrower for the future technology pathways, reflecting the expected economic competitiveness of these alternative vehicles and fuels.

A spatial assessment of Brassica napus gene flow potential to wild and weedy relatives in the Fynbos Biome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. M. Kalwij

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Gene flow between related plant species, and between transgenic and non-transgenic crop varieties, may be considered a form of biological invasion. Brassica napus (oilseed rape or canola and its relatives are well known for intra- and inter-specific gene flow, hybridisation and weediness. Gene flow associated with B. napus poses a potential ecological risk in the Fynbos Biome of South Africa, because of the existence of both naturalised (alien, weedy and native relatives in this region. This risk is particularly pertinent given the proposed use of B. napus for biofuel and the potential future introduction of herbicide-tolerant transgenic B. napus. Here we quantify the presence and co-occurrence of B. napus and its wild and weedy relatives in the Fynbos Biome, as a first step in the ecological risk assessment for this crop. Several alien and at least one native relative of B. napus were found to be prevalent in the region, and to be spatially congruent with B. napus fields. The first requirement for potential gene flow to occur has thus been met. In addition, a number of these species have elsewhere been found to be reproductively compatible with B. napus. Further assessment of the potential ecological risks associated with B. napus in South Africa is constrained by uncertainties in the phylogeny of the Brassicaceae, difficulties with morphology-based identification, and poor knowledge of the biology of several of the species involved, particularly under South African conditions.

Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vimmerstedt, Laura J. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jadun, Paige [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McMillan, Colin A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel C. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Muratori, Matteo [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2018-01-02

This report provides projected cost and performance assumptions for electric technologies considered in the Electrification Futures Study, a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the effects of widespread electrification of end-use service demands in all major economic sectors - transportation, residential and commercial buildings, and industry - for the contiguous United States through 2050. Using extensive literature searches and expert assessment, the authors identify slow, moderate, and rapid technology advancement sensitivities on technology cost and performance, and they offer a comparative analysis of levelized cost metrics as a reference indicator of total costs. The identification and characterization of these end-use service demand technologies is fundamental to the Electrification Futures Study. This report, the larger Electrification Futures Study, and the associated data and methodologies may be useful to planners and analysts in evaluating the potential role of electrification in an uncertain future. The report could be broadly applicable for other analysts and researchers who wish to assess electrification and electric technologies.

Equivalent magnetic vector potential model for low-frequency magnetic exposure assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Diao, Y. L.; Sun, W. N.; He, Y. Q.; Leung, S. W.; Siu, Y. M.

2017-10-01

In this paper, a novel source model based on a magnetic vector potential for the assessment of induced electric field strength in a human body exposed to the low-frequency (LF) magnetic field of an electrical appliance is presented. The construction of the vector potential model requires only a single-component magnetic field to be measured close to the appliance under test, hence relieving considerable practical measurement effort—the radial basis functions (RBFs) are adopted for the interpolation of discrete measurements; the magnetic vector potential model can then be directly constructed by summing a set of simple algebraic functions of RBF parameters. The vector potentials are then incorporated into numerical calculations as the equivalent source for evaluations of the induced electric field in the human body model. The accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed model are demonstrated by comparing the induced electric field in a human model to that of the full-wave simulation. This study presents a simple and effective approach for modelling the LF magnetic source. The result of this study could simplify the compliance test procedure for assessing an electrical appliance regarding LF magnetic exposure.

Maintaining the uranium resources data system and assessing the 1991 US uranium potential resources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McCammon, R.B. (Geological Survey, Reston, VA (United States)); Finch, W.I.; Grundy, W.D.; Pierson, C.T. (Geological Survey, Denver, CO (United States))

1992-12-31

The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Uranium Resource Assessment Data (URAD) System contains information on potential resources (undiscovered) of uranium in the United States. The purpose of this report is: (1) to describe the work carried out to maintain and update the URAD system; (2) to assess the 1991 U.S. uranium potential resources in various cost categories; and (3) to describe the progress that has been made to automate the generation of the assessment reports and their subsequent transmittal by diskette.

The future of health economics: The potential of behavioral and experimental economics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fredrik Hansen

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Health care systems around the globe are facing great challenges. The demand for health care is increasing due to the continuous development of new medical technologies, changing demographics, increasing income levels, and greater expectations from patients. The possibilities and willingness to expand health care resources, however, are limited. Consequently, health care organizations are increasingly required to take economic restrictions into account, and there is an urgent need for improved efficiency. It is reasonable to ask whether the health economics field of today is prepared and equipped to help us meet these challenges. Our aim with this article is twofold: to introduce the fields of behavioral and experimental economics and to then identify and characterize health economics areas where these two fields have a promising potential. We also discuss the advantages of a pluralistic view in health economics research, and we anticipate a dynamic future for health economics.

Component processes underlying future thinking.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Ortoleva, Claudia; Jumentier, Sabrina; Van der Linden, Martial

2010-09-01

This study sought to investigate the component processes underlying the ability to imagine future events, using an individual-differences approach. Participants completed several tasks assessing different aspects of future thinking (i.e., fluency, specificity, amount of episodic details, phenomenology) and were also assessed with tasks and questionnaires measuring various component processes that have been hypothesized to support future thinking (i.e., executive processes, visual-spatial processing, relational memory processing, self-consciousness, and time perspective). The main results showed that executive processes were correlated with various measures of future thinking, whereas visual-spatial processing abilities and time perspective were specifically related to the number of sensory descriptions reported when specific future events were imagined. Furthermore, individual differences in self-consciousness predicted the subjective feeling of experiencing the imagined future events. These results suggest that future thinking involves a collection of processes that are related to different facets of future-event representation.

Economic potential of fuel recycling options: A lifecycle cost analysis of future nuclear system transition in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao, Ruxing; Choi, Sungyeol; Il Ko, Won; Kim, Sungki

2017-01-01

In today's profit-driven market, how best to pursue advanced nuclear fuel cycle technologies while maintaining the cost competitiveness of nuclear electricity is of crucial importance to determine the implementation of spent fuel reprocessing and recycling in China. In this study, a comprehensive techno-economic analysis is undertaken to evaluate the economic feasibility of ongoing national projects and the technical compatibility with China's future fuel cycle transition. We investigated the dynamic impacts of technical and economic uncertainties in the lifecycle of a nuclear system. The electricity generation costs associated with four potential fuel cycle transition scenarios were simulated by probabilistic and deterministic approaches and then compared in detail. The results showed that the total cost of a once-through system is lowest compared those of other advanced systems involving reprocessing and recycling. However, thanks to the consequential uncertainties caused by the further progress toward technology maturity, the economic potential of fuel recycling options was proven through a probabilistic uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, it is recommended that a compulsory executive of closed fuel cycle policy would pose some investment risk in the near term, though the execution of a series of R&D initiatives with a flexible roadmap would be valuable in the long run. - Highlights: • Real-time economic performance of the four scenarios of China's nuclear fuel cycle system transition until 2100. • Systematic assessments of techno-economic feasibility for ongoing national reprocessing projects. • Investigation the cost impact on nuclear electricity generation caused by uncertainties through probabilistic analysis. • Recommendation for sustainable implementation of fuel cycle R&D initiative ingrate with flexible roadmap in the long run.

Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

Offense-defense aspects of nanotechnologies: a forecast of potential military applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Shipbaugh, Calvin

2006-01-01

Potential military applications of nanotechnology will evolve in the next few decades. The implications for both defense and offense should be carefully assessed. Nanotechnology can push major changes in stability, and shape the consequences of future conflict.

Toward Production From Gas Hydrates: Current Status, Assessment of Resources, and Simulation-Based Evaluationof Technology and Potential

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reagan, Matthew; Moridis, George J.; Collett, Timothy; Boswell, Ray; Kurihara, M.; Reagan, Matthew T.; Koh, Carolyn; Sloan, E. Dendy

2008-02-12

Gas hydrates are a vast energy resource with global distribution in the permafrost and in the oceans. Even if conservative estimates are considered and only a small fraction is recoverable, the sheer size of the resource is so large that it demands evaluation as a potential energy source. In this review paper, we discuss the distribution of natural gas hydrate accumulations, the status of the primary international R&D programs, and the remaining science and technological challenges facing commercialization of production. After a brief examination of gas hydrate accumulations that are well characterized and appear to be models for future development and gas production, we analyze the role of numerical simulation in the assessment of the hydrate production potential, identify the data needs for reliable predictions, evaluate the status of knowledge with regard to these needs, discuss knowledge gaps and their impact, and reach the conclusion that the numerical simulation capabilities are quite advanced and that the related gaps are either not significant or are being addressed. We review the current body of literature relevant to potential productivity from different types of gas hydrate deposits, and determine that there are consistent indications of a large production potential at high rates over long periods from a wide variety of hydrate deposits. Finally, we identify (a) features, conditions, geology and techniques that are desirable in potential production targets, (b) methods to maximize production, and (c) some of the conditions and characteristics that render certain gas hydrate deposits undesirable for production.

Postactivation potentiation biases maximal isometric strength assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Lima, Leonardo Coelho Rabello; Oliveira, Felipe Bruno Dias; Oliveira, Thiago Pires; Assumpção, Claudio de Oliveira; Greco, Camila Coelho; Cardozo, Adalgiso Croscato; Denadai, Benedito Sérgio

2014-01-01

Postactivation potentiation (PAP) is known to enhance force production. Maximal isometric strength assessment protocols usually consist of two or more maximal voluntary isometric contractions (MVCs). The objective of this study was to determine if PAP would influence isometric strength assessment. Healthy male volunteers (n = 23) performed two five-second MVCs separated by a 180-seconds interval. Changes in isometric peak torque (IPT), time to achieve it (tPTI), contractile impulse (CI), root mean square of the electromyographic signal during PTI (RMS), and rate of torque development (RTD), in different intervals, were measured. Significant increases in IPT (240.6 ± 55.7 N·m versus 248.9 ± 55.1 N·m), RTD (746 ± 152 N·m·s(-1) versus 727 ± 158 N·m·s(-1)), and RMS (59.1 ± 12.2% RMSMAX  versus 54.8 ± 9.4% RMSMAX) were found on the second MVC. tPTI decreased significantly on the second MVC (2373 ± 1200 ms versus 2784 ± 1226 ms). We conclude that a first MVC leads to PAP that elicits significant enhancements in strength-related variables of a second MVC performed 180 seconds later. If disconsidered, this phenomenon might bias maximal isometric strength assessment, overestimating some of these variables.

In vitro assessment of the antimicrobial potential of honey on ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background: Honey produced by honeybees (Apis mellifera) is one of the ancient traditional medicines used for treatment and prevention of various illnesses. Objective: To assess the antimicrobial potential of honey on some common bacterial pathogen. Methods: This experimental study was conducted in Jimma University ...

High-resolution assessment of global technical and economic hydropower potential

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gernaat, David E.H.J.; Bogaart, Patrick W.; Vuuren, van Detlef P.; Biemans, Hester; Niessink, Robin

2017-01-01

Hydropower is the most important renewable energy source to date, providing over 72% of all renewable electricity globally. Yet, only limited information is available on the global potential supply of hydropower and the associated costs. Here we provide a high-resolution assessment of the technical

Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks under future climate and land cover changes in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Yigini, Yusuf; Panagos, Panos

2016-07-01

Soil organic carbon plays an important role in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems, variations in soil organic carbon stocks are very important for the ecosystem. In this study, a geostatistical model was used for predicting current and future soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe. The first phase of the study predicts current soil organic carbon content by using stepwise multiple linear regression and ordinary kriging and the second phase of the study projects the soil organic carbon to the near future (2050) by using a set of environmental predictors. We demonstrate here an approach to predict present and future soil organic carbon stocks by using climate, land cover, terrain and soil data and their projections. The covariates were selected for their role in the carbon cycle and their availability for the future model. The regression-kriging as a base model is predicting current SOC stocks in Europe by using a set of covariates and dense SOC measurements coming from LUCAS Soil Database. The base model delivers coefficients for each of the covariates to the future model. The overall model produced soil organic carbon maps which reflect the present and the future predictions (2050) based on climate and land cover projections. The data of the present climate conditions (long-term average (1950-2000)) and the future projections for 2050 were obtained from WorldClim data portal. The future climate projections are the recent climate projections mentioned in the Fifth Assessment IPCC report. These projections were extracted from the global climate models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest an overall increase in SOC stocks by 2050 in Europe (EU26) under all climate and land cover scenarios, but the extent of the increase varies between the climate model and emissions scenarios. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Generation of future potential scenarios in an Alpine Catchment by applying bias-correction techniques, delta-change approaches and stochastic Weather Generators at different spatial scale. Analysis of their influence on basic and drought statistics.

Science.gov (United States)

Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Pulido-Velazquez, David; Pardo-Iguzquiza, Eulogio

2017-04-01

Assessing impacts of potential future climate change scenarios in precipitation and temperature is essential to design adaptive strategies in water resources systems. The objective of this work is to analyze the possibilities of different statistical downscaling methods to generate future potential scenarios in an Alpine Catchment from historical data and the available climate models simulations performed in the frame of the CORDEX EU project. The initial information employed to define these downscaling approaches are the historical climatic data (taken from the Spain02 project for the period 1971-2000 with a spatial resolution of 12.5 Km) and the future series provided by climatic models in the horizon period 2071-2100 . We have used information coming from nine climate model simulations (obtained from five different Regional climate models (RCM) nested to four different Global Climate Models (GCM)) from the European CORDEX project. In our application we have focused on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario, which is the most unfavorable scenario considered in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For each RCM we have generated future climate series for the period 2071-2100 by applying two different approaches, bias correction and delta change, and five different transformation techniques (first moment correction, first and second moment correction, regression functions, quantile mapping using distribution derived transformation and quantile mapping using empirical quantiles) for both of them. Ensembles of the obtained series were proposed to obtain more representative potential future climate scenarios to be employed to study potential impacts. In this work we propose a non-equifeaseble combination of the future series giving more weight to those coming from models (delta change approaches) or combination of models and techniques that provides better approximation to the basic

Environmental impacts of future low-carbon electricity systems: Detailed life cycle assessment of a Danish case study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Turconi, Roberto; Tonini, Davide; Nielsen, Christian F.B.

2014-01-01

by the modeling approach regarding the import of electricity, biomass provision, and the allocation between heat and power in cogeneration plants. As the importance of all three aspects is likely to increase in the future, transparency in LCA modeling is critical. Characterized impacts for Danish power plants......The need to reduce dependency on fossil resources and to decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is driving many countries towards the implementation of low-carbon electricity systems. In this study the environmental impact of a future (2030) possible low-carbon electricity system in Denmark...... was assessed and compared with the current situation (2010) and an alternative 2030 scenario using life cycle assessment (LCA). The influence on the final results of the modeling approach used for (i) electricity import, (ii) biomass resources, and (iii) the cogeneration of heat and power was discussed...

Transport energy demand in Andorra. Assessing private car futures through sensitivity and scenario analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Travesset-Baro, Oriol; Gallachóir, Brian P.Ó.; Jover, Eric; Rosas-Casals, Marti

2016-01-01

This paper presents a model which estimates current car fleet energy consumption in Andorra and forecasts such consumption as a reference scenario. The base-year model is built through a bottom-up methodology using vehicle registration and technical inspection data. The model forecasts energy consumption up to 2050, taking into account the fleet structure, the car survival profile, trends in activity of the various car categories, and the fuel price and income elasticities that affect car stock and total fleet activity. It provides an initial estimate of private car energy demand in Andorra and charts a baseline scenario that describes a hypothetical future based on historical trends. A local sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the most sensitive input parameters and study the effect of its variability. In addition, the scenario analysis explores the most uncertain future aspects which can cause important variability in the results with respect to the Reference scenario and provides a broad estimate of potential energy savings related to different policy strategies. - Highlights: •A private car energy model is built using aggregated available data. •Andorra's current car fleet energy consumption is estimated and forecasted to 2050. •Potential energy savings have been estimated using sensitivity and scenario analysis.

Assessment of potential perturbations to Posiva's SF repository at Olkiluoto from the ONKALO Facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alexander, W.R.; Neall, F.B.

2007-06-01

Although the site of the proposed spent fuel repository at Olkiluoto in southwest Finland has been extensively investigated over the last fifteen years, Posiva decided to construct a rock characterisation facility (RCF) at the site to collect more detailed information on the host rock. The data provided by the ONKALO RCF will support the detailed repository design and safety assessment (SA) and will allow construction and disposal methods to be tested under relevant in situ conditions. ONKALO has been so designed that it can act as access routes and auxiliary rooms for the SF repository and so may be in use for the entire operational phase of the repository (currently up to 100 years). Extensive experience from deep mining suggests that such an extended period of operation could have a major impact on both the host rock formation and any nearby facilities, such as the SF repository, and, consequently, Posiva decided to investigate potential perturbations to the repository caused by the existence of ONKALO. A preliminary assessment was carried out in 2003, before construction of the RCF began, and this was recently partially updated in early 2006. This current report represents the most recent update of these reports and has the primary aims of: checking if the previous reports have missed any essential issues; evaluating whether the identified issues have been treated in an appropriate manner; updating the reports in the light of new information. This is carried out based on data from ONKALO itself and on improved understanding of some of the perturbation mechanisms identified in the original studies along with a consideration of newly identified processes. This report differs from the previous studies in addressing the issues in a more SA-oriented manner (for example, focussing the examination of potential perturbations on a re-worked FEP list), allowing the work reported here to be more easily dovetailed with future SA studies on the Olkiluoto repository

Associations of Affective Responses During Free-Living Physical Activity and Future Physical Activity Levels: an Ecological Momentary Assessment Study.

Science.gov (United States)