WorldWideScience

Sample records for assessing potential future

  1. Assessing potential future environmental legislative, regulatory, and judicial events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonn, B.; Schweitzer, M.; Godfrey, G. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Wagner, C. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville (United States); MacGregor, D.G. [MacGregor-Bates, Inc. (United States)

    1998-03-01

    This report describes a methodology to proactively and methodically assess future potential environmental legislative, regulatory, and judicial events. This is an important endeavor because new, revised, and reauthorized legislation, proposed and final regulations, and outcomes of judicial proceedings have the potential to impose new actions, directions, and costs of many organizations in the United States (related to capital investments, operating approaches, and research and development) and to affect the quality of life. The electric power industry is particularly impacted by environmental regulatory events (the term `regulatory` is used to cover all the types of legal events listed above), as the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity affects air and water quality, require disposal of solid, hazardous, and radioactive wastes, and at times, impacts wetlands and endangered species. Numerous potential regulatory events, such as the reauthorization of the Clean Water Act and new regulations associated with global climate change, can greatly affect the power industry. Organizations poised to respond proactively to such events will improve their competitive positions, reduce their costs in the long-term, and improve their public images.

  2. Current assessment and future potential of the international nuclear market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This is a study of the current and future situation of the international nuclear market. This paper highlights the projections as seen not only by Bechtel Power Corporation, but also by the international nuclear community. It covers in particular the electric power growth projection; the percentage of probable nuclear power generation; operating services for existing nuclear power plants; and the nuclear fuel cycle. (NEA)

  3. ASSESSING THE FUTURE MIGRATION POTENTIAL OF THE EU CANDIDATE COUNTRIES

    OpenAIRE

    Assoc. Prof. Ph.D Vesna Bucevska

    2010-01-01

    In the realm of the EU accession, the EU candidate countries and EU are facing a number of challenges raised by the potential migration from these countries to EU. In this paper we try to answer the question if the fear of large migration pressure from these countries to EU is justified by estimating the migration potential of Croatia, Macedonia and Turkey to Germany, as the most dominant EU receiving country of immigrants in the period 1997-2007. The results from the extended gravity model r...

  4. Assessment of potential future hydrogen markets in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashani, A. K.

    1980-01-01

    Potential future hydrogen markets in the United States are assessed. Future hydrogen markets for various use sectors are projected, the probable range of hydrogen production costs from various alternatives is estimated, stimuli and barriers to the development of hydrogen markets are discussed, an overview of the status of technologies for the production and utilization of hydrogen is presented, and, finally, societal aspects of hydrogen production and utilization are discussed.

  5. ASSESSMENT OF ALLERGENIC POTENTIAL OF GENETICALLY MODIFIED FOODS: AN AGENDA FOR FUTURE RESEARCH

    Science.gov (United States)

    AbstractSpeakers and participants in the Workshop Assessment of the Allergenic Potential of Genetically Modified Foods met in breakout groups to discuss a number of issues including needs for future research. There was agreement that research should move forward quickly in t...

  6. Assessment of allergenic potential of genetically modified foods: an agenda for future research.

    OpenAIRE

    Selgrade, MaryJane K.; Kimber, Ian; Goldman, Lynn; Germolec, Dori R.

    2003-01-01

    Speakers and participants in the workshop "Assessment of the Allergenic Potential of Genetically Modified Foods" met in breakout groups to discuss a number of issues including needs for future research. These groups agreed that research should progress quickly in the area of hazard identification and that a need exists for more basic research to understand the mechanisms underlying food allergy. A list of research needs was developed.

  7. Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Popescu

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, which are having fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB and makes an analysis of the maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin for a horizon of 30 yr (i.e. year 2040. Current hydropower production is estimated based on historic available data while future energy production is deduced from the maximum available water in the catchment, whereas electricity demand is assessed by correlating existing electricity demand with the estimated population growth and economic development. The maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin, were assessed for the mean annual flows of the present hydrological regime (1970–2000 and topographical characteristics of the area.

    Computations were performed using an integrated GIS environment called Vapidro-Aste released by the Research on Energy System (Italy. The residual hydropower potential of the basin is computed considering that first the water supply needs for population, industry and agriculture are served and than hydropower energy is produced. The calculated hydropower production is found to be approximately half of the estimated electricity demand, which shows that there is a need to look for other sources of energy in the future.

  8. Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Chunyang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Huang, Qingxu; Zhang, Qiaofeng; Zhang, Da

    2015-11-01

    Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape.

  9. Projecting future grassland productivity to assess the sustainability of potential biofuel feedstock areas in the Greater Platte River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.; Boyte, Stephen; Phyual, Khem

    2014-01-01

    This study projects future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) grassland productivities in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB) using ecosystem performance (EP, a surrogate for measuring ecosystem productivity) models and future climate projections. The EP models developed from a previous study were based on the satellite vegetation index, site geophysical and biophysical features, and weather and climate drivers. The future climate data used in this study were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 3.0 ‘SRES A1B’ (a ‘middle’ emissions path). The main objective of this study is to assess the future sustainability of the potential biofuel feedstock areas identified in a previous study. Results show that the potential biofuel feedstock areas (the more mesic eastern part of the GPRB) will remain productive (i.e., aboveground grassland biomass productivity >2750 kg ha−1 year−1) with a slight increasing trend in the future. The spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3519, 3432, 3557, 3605, 3752, and 3583 kg ha−1 year−1 for current site potential (2000–2008 average), 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099, respectively. Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will likely continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, grasslands identified as having no biofuel potential in the drier western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1822, 1691, 1896, 2306, 1994, and 2169 kg ha−1 year−1 for site potential, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099). These areas should continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. These future grassland productivity estimation maps can help land managers to understand and adapt to the expected changes in future EP in the GPRB and to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of potential biofuel feedstock areas.

  10. Assessing potential changes of chestnut productivity in Europe under future climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calheiros, T.; Pereira, M. G.; Pinto, J. G.; Caramelo, L.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Dacamara, C. C.

    2012-04-01

    The European chestnut is cultivated for its nuts and wood. Several studies point to the dependency of chestnut productivity on specific soil and climate characteristics. For instance, this species dislikes chalky and poorly drained soils, appreciates sedimentary, siliceous and acidic to neutral soils. Chestnut trees also seems to appreciate annual mean values of sunlight spanning between 2400 and 2600 h, rainfall ranging between 600 and 1500 mm, mean annual temperature between 9 and 13°C, 27°C being the mean of the maximum temperature (Heiniger and Conedera, 1992; Gomes-Laranjo et al.,2008). The amount of heat between May and October must range between 1800°D and 2400°D (Dinis et al., 2011) . In Poland, the growing season is defined as the period of time when the mean 24-h temperature is greater than 5°C (Wilczynski and Podalski, 2007). In Portugal, maximum photosynthetic activity occurs at 24-28°C for adult trees, but exhibits more than 50% of termoinhibition when the air temperature is above 32°C, which is frequent during summer (Gomes- Laranjo et al., 2006, 2008). Recently Pereira et al (2011) identified a set of meteorological variables/parameters with high impact on chestnut productivity. The main purpose of this work is to assess the potential impacts of future climate change on chestnut productivity in Portugal as well as on European chestnut orchards. First, observed data from the European Climate assessment (ECA) and simulations with the Regional Circulation Model (RCM) COSMO-CLM for recent climate conditions are used to assess the ability of the RCM to model the actual meteorological conditions. Then, ensemble projections from the ECHAM5/COSMO-CLM model chain for two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) are used to estimate the values of relevant meteorological variables and parameters und future climate conditions. Simulated values are then compared with those obtained for present climate. Results point to changes in the spatial and temporal

  11. Assessement of rheumatic diseases with computational radiology: current status and future potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peloschek, Philipp; Boesen, Mikael; Donner, Rene;

    2009-01-01

    In recent years, several computational image analysis methods to assess disease progression in rheumatic diseases were presented. This review article explains the basics of these methods as well as their potential application in rheumatic disease monitoring, it covers radiography, sonography as w...

  12. Assessement of rheumatic diseases with computational radiology: Current status and future potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In recent years, several computational image analysis methods to assess disease progression in rheumatic diseases were presented. This review article explains the basics of these methods as well as their potential application in rheumatic disease monitoring, it covers radiography, sonography as well as magnetic resonance imaging in quantitative analysis frameworks.

  13. Assessing current and future techno-economic potential of concentrated solar power and photovoltaic electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    CSP and PV technologies represent energy sources with large potentials. We present cost-supply curves for both technologies using a consistent methodology for 26 regions, based on geoexplicit information on solar radiation, land cover type and slope, exploring individual potential and interdependencies. For present day, both CSP and PV supply curves start at $0.18/kWh, in North Africa, South America, and Australia. Applying accepted learning rates to official capacity targets, we project prices to drop to $0.11/kWh for both technologies by 2050. In an alternative “fast-learning” scenario, generation costs drop to $0.06–0.07/kWh for CSP, and $0.09/kWh for PV. Competition between them for best areas is explored along with sensitivities of their techno-economic potentials to land use restrictions and land cover type. CSP was found to be more competitive in desert sites with highest direct solar radiation. PV was a clear winner in humid tropical regions, and temperate northern hemisphere. Elsewhere, no clear winner emerged, highlighting the importance of competition in assessments of potentials. Our results show there is ample potential globally for both technologies even accounting for land use restrictions, but stronger support for RD&D and higher investments are needed to make CSP and PV cost-competitive with established power technologies by 2050. - Highlights: • A consistent assessment of global potential for CSP and PV, with cost-supply curves for 26 regions. • Combined global CSP and PV potential below US$0.35/kWh estimated at 135,128 TWh per year. • Competition for same land-based solar resource implies that potentials cannot be added. • Attractive areas are MENA, Northern Chile, Australia, China and Southwestern USA. • Costs are projected to go down over time, reaching US$0.06–0.11/KWh for attractive sites in 2050

  14. Geriatric assessment with management in cancer care: Current evidence and potential mechanisms for future research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnuson, Allison; Allore, Heather; Cohen, Harvey Jay; Mohile, Supriya G.; Williams, Grant R.; Chapman, Andrew; Extermann, Martine; Olin, Rebecca L.; Targia, Valerie; Mackenzie, Amy; Holmes, Holly M.; Hurria, Arti

    2016-01-01

    Older adults with cancer represent a complex patient population. Geriatric assessment (GA) is recommended to evaluate the medical and supportive care needs of this group. “GA with management” is a term encompassing the resultant medical decisions and interventions implemented in response to vulnerabilities identified on GA. In older, non-cancer patients, GA with management has been shown to improve a variety of outcomes, such as reducing functional decline and health care utilization. However, the role of GA with management in the older adult with cancer is less well established. Rigorous clinical trials of GA with management are necessary to develop an evidence base and support its use in the routine oncology care of older adults. At the recent U-13 conference, “Design and Implementation of Intervention Studies to Improve or Maintain Quality of Survivorship in Older and/or Frail Adults with Cancer,” a session was dedicated to developing research priorities in GA with management. Here we summarize identified knowledge gaps in GA with management studies for older patients with cancer and propose areas for future research. PMID:27197915

  15. Geriatric assessment with management in cancer care: Current evidence and potential mechanisms for future research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnuson, Allison; Allore, Heather; Cohen, Harvey Jay; Mohile, Supriya G; Williams, Grant R; Chapman, Andrew; Extermann, Martine; Olin, Rebecca L; Targia, Valerie; Mackenzie, Amy; Holmes, Holly M; Hurria, Arti

    2016-07-01

    Older adults with cancer represent a complex patient population. Geriatric assessment (GA) is recommended to evaluate the medical and supportive care needs of this group. "GA with management" is a term encompassing the resultant medical decisions and interventions implemented in response to vulnerabilities identified on GA. In older, non-cancer patients, GA with management has been shown to improve a variety of outcomes, such as reducing functional decline and health care utilization. However, the role of GA with management in the older adult with cancer is less well established. Rigorous clinical trials of GA with management are necessary to develop an evidence base and support its use in the routine oncology care of older adults. At the recent U-13 conference, "Design and Implementation of Intervention Studies to Improve or Maintain Quality of Survivorship in Older and/or Frail Adults with Cancer," a session was dedicated to developing research priorities in GA with management. Here we summarize identified knowledge gaps in GA with management studies for older patients with cancer and propose areas for future research. PMID:27197915

  16. A horizon scanning assessment of current and potential future threats to migratory shorebirds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutherland, William J.; Alves, Jose A.; Amano, Tatsuya; Chang, Charlotte H.; Davidson, Nicholas C.; Finlayson, C. Max; Gill, Jennifer A.; Gill, Robert E.; González, Patricia M.; Gunnarsson, Tómas Grétar; Kleijn, David; Spray, Chris J.; Székely, Tamás; Thompson, Des B.A.

    2012-01-01

    We review the conservation issues facing migratory shorebird populations that breed in temperate regions and use wetlands in the non-breeding season. Shorebirds are excellent model organisms for understanding ecological, behavioural and evolutionary processes and are often used as indicators of wetland health. A global team of experienced shorebird researchers identified 45 issues facing these shorebird populations, and divided them into three categories (natural, current anthropogenic and future issues). The natural issues included megatsunamis, volcanoes and regional climate changes, while current anthropogenic threats encompassed agricultural intensification, conversion of tidal flats and coastal wetlands by human infrastructure developments and eutrophication of coastal systems. Possible future threats to shorebirds include microplastics, new means of recreation and infectious diseases. We suggest that this review process be broadened to other taxa to aid the identification and ranking of current and future conservation actions.

  17. Assessing current and future techno-economic potential of concentrated solar power and photovoltaic electricity generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Köberle, Alexandre C.; Gernaat, David E H J; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2015-01-01

    CSP and PV technologies represent energy sources with large potentials. We present cost-supply curves for both technologies using a consistent methodology for 26 regions, based on geoexplicit information on solar radiation, land cover type and slope, exploring individual potential and interdependenc

  18. Assessment of the potential of colloidal fuels in future energy usage. Final report. [97 references

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1980-02-25

    Pulverized coal has been an increasing important source of energy over the past century. Most large utility boilers, all modern coking plants, and many industrial boilers and blast furnaces employ pulverized coal as a major feed stream. In periods of oil shortages, such as during World Wars I and II, the concept of adding powdered coal to oil for use in combustion equipment originally designed for oil has been actively pursued but rarely used. Over this same period of time, there have been attempts to use air suspensions of coal dust in diesel engines in Germany, and in turbines in various countries. The economic advantages to be enjoyed by substitution of powdered coal in oil are not generally realized. Oil costs at $30/bbl represent a fuel value of about $5.00/10/sup 6/ Btu; coal at $25/ton is equivalent to approximately $1.00/10/sup 6/ Btu. Although capital costs for the use of coal are higher than those associated with the use of oil, coal is clearly becoming the least costly fuel. Not only are considerable cost advantages possible, but an improvement in balance of payments and an increase in reliability of fuel supplies are other potential benefits. It is therefore recommended that increased national attention be given to develop these finer grinds of carbonaceous fuels to be used in various suspending fluids. Technical areas where significant additional support appear desirable are described.

  19. Accuracy of a Low-Cost Novel Computer-Vision Dynamic Movement Assessment: Potential Limitations and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGroarty, M.; Giblin, S.; Meldrum, D.; Wetterling, F.

    2016-04-01

    The aim of the study was to perform a preliminary validation of a low cost markerless motion capture system (CAPTURE) against an industry gold standard (Vicon). Measurements of knee valgus and flexion during the performance of a countermovement jump (CMJ) between CAPTURE and Vicon were compared. After correction algorithms were applied to the raw CAPTURE data acceptable levels of accuracy and precision were achieved. The knee flexion angle measured for three trials using Capture deviated by -3.8° ± 3° (left) and 1.7° ± 2.8° (right) compared to Vicon. The findings suggest that low-cost markerless motion capture has potential to provide an objective method for assessing lower limb jump and landing mechanics in an applied sports setting. Furthermore, the outcome of the study warrants the need for future research to examine more fully the potential implications of the use of low-cost markerless motion capture in the evaluation of dynamic movement for injury prevention.

  20. Future research needs associated with the assessment of potential human health risks from exposure to toxic ambient air pollutants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möller, Lennart; Schuetzle, Dennis; Autrup, Herman

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents key conclusions and future research needs from a Workshop on the Risk Assessment of Urban Air, Emissions, Exposure, Risk Identification, and Quantification, which was held in Stockholm during June 1992 by 41 participants from 13 countries. Research is recommended in the areas ...

  1. Identifying conservation successes, failures and future opportunities; assessing recovery potential of wild ungulates and tigers in Eastern Cambodia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannah J O'Kelly

    Full Text Available Conservation investment, particularly for charismatic and wide-ranging large mammal species, needs to be evidence-based. Despite the prevalence of this theme within the literature, examples of robust data being generated to guide conservation policy and funding decisions are rare. We present the first published case-study of tiger conservation in Indochina, from a site where an evidence-based approach has been implemented for this iconic predator and its prey. Despite the persistence of extensive areas of habitat, Indochina's tiger and ungulate prey populations are widely supposed to have precipitously declined in recent decades. The Seima Protection Forest (SPF, and broader Eastern Plains Landscape, was identified in 2000 as representing Cambodia's best hope for tiger recovery; reflected in its designation as a Global Priority Tiger Conservation Landscape. Since 2005 distance sampling, camera-trapping and detection-dog surveys have been employed to assess the recovery potential of ungulate and tiger populations in SPF. Our results show that while conservation efforts have ensured that small but regionally significant populations of larger ungulates persist, and density trends in smaller ungulates are stable, overall ungulate populations remain well below theoretical carrying capacity. Extensive field surveys failed to yield any evidence of tiger, and we contend that there is no longer a resident population within the SPF. This local extirpation is believed to be primarily attributable to two decades of intensive hunting; but importantly, prey densities are also currently below the level necessary to support a viable tiger population. Based on these results and similar findings from neighbouring sites, Eastern Cambodia does not currently constitute a Tiger Source Site nor meet the criteria of a Global Priority Tiger Landscape. However, SPF retains global importance for many other elements of biodiversity. It retains high regional importance for

  2. Screening Assessment of Potential Human-Health Risk from Future Natural-Gas Drilling Near Project Rulison in Western Colorado

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Project Rulison underground nuclear test was conducted in 1969 at a depth of 8,400 ft in the Williams Fork Formation of the Piceance Basin, west-central Colorado (Figure 1). The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) is the steward of the site. Their management is guided by data collected from past site investigations and current monitoring, and by the results of calculations of expected behavior of contaminants remaining in the deep subsurface. The purpose of this screening risk assessment is to evaluate possible health risks from current and future exposure to Rulison contaminants so the information can be factored into LM's stewardship decisions. For example, these risk assessment results can inform decisions regarding institutional controls at the site and appropriate monitoring of nearby natural-gas extraction activities. Specifically, the screening risk analysis can provide guidance for setting appropriate action levels for contaminant monitoring to ensure protection of human health.

  3. Screening Assessment of Potential Human-Health Risk from Future Natural-Gas Drilling Near Project Rulison in Western Colorado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniels Jeffrey I.,Chapman Jenny B.

    2012-01-01

    The Project Rulison underground nuclear test was conducted in 1969 at a depth of 8,400 ft in the Williams Fork Formation of the Piceance Basin, west-central Colorado (Figure 1). The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) is the steward of the site. Their management is guided by data collected from past site investigations and current monitoring, and by the results of calculations of expected behavior of contaminants remaining in the deep subsurface. The purpose of this screening risk assessment is to evaluate possible health risks from current and future exposure to Rulison contaminants so the information can be factored into LM's stewardship decisions. For example, these risk assessment results can inform decisions regarding institutional controls at the site and appropriate monitoring of nearby natural-gas extraction activities. Specifically, the screening risk analysis can provide guidance for setting appropriate action levels for contaminant monitoring to ensure protection of human health.

  4. Assessing the zoonotic potential of Ascaris suum and Trichuris suis: looking to the future from an analysis of the past.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nejsum, P; Betson, M; Bendall, R P; Thamsborg, S M; Stothard, J R

    2012-06-01

    The two geohelminths, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura, infect more than a billion people worldwide but are only reported sporadically in the developed part of the world. In contrast, the closely related species A. suum and T. suis in pigs have a truly global distribution, with infected pigs found in most production systems. In areas where pigs and humans live in close proximity or where pig manure is used as fertilizer on vegetables for human consumption, there is a potential risk of cross-infections. We therefore review this relationship between Ascaris and Trichuris in the human and pig host, with special focus on recent evidence concerning the zoonotic potential of these parasites, and identify some open questions for future research.

  5. The future of environmental sustainability in the Taita Hills, Kenya: assessing potential impacts of agricultural expansion and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Maeda

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The indigenous cloud forests in the Taita Hills have suffered substantial degradation for several centuries due to agricultural expansion. Currently, only 1% of the original forested area remains preserved. Furthermore, climate change imposes an imminent threat for local economy and environmental sustainability. In such circumstances, elaborating tools to conciliate socioeconomic growth and natural resources conservation is an enormous challenge. This article tackles essential aspects for understanding the ongoing agricultural activities in the Taita Hills and their potential environmental consequences in the future. Initially, an alternative method is proposed to reduce uncertainties and costs for estimating agricultural water demand. The main characteristic of the approach proposed in this study is the use of satellite data to overcome data availability limitations. Furthermore, a modelling framework was designed to delineate agricultural expansion projections and evaluate the future impacts of agriculture on soil erosion and irrigation water demand. The results indicate that if current trends persist, agricultural areas will occupy roughly 60% of the study area by 2030. Rainfall erosivity is likely to increase during April and November due to climate change and slight decrease during March and May. Although the simulations indicate that climate change will likely increase total annual rainfall volumes during the following decades, irrigation requirements will continue to increase due to agricultural expansion. By 2030, new cropland areas may cause an increase of approximately 40% in the annual volume of water necessary for irrigation.

  6. Searching for native tree species and respective potential biomarkers for future assessment of pollution effects on the highly diverse Atlantic Forest in SE-Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study summarizes the first effort to search for bioindicator tree species and respective potential biomarkers for future assessment of potential mixed pollution effects on the highly diverse Atlantic Forest in SE-Brazil. Leaves of the three most abundant species inventoried in a phytosociological survey (Croton floribundus, Piptadenia gonoacantha and Astronium graveolens) were collected in four forest remnants during winter and summer (2012). Their potential bioindicator attributes were highlighted using a screening of morphological, chemical and biochemical markers. The leaf surface structure and/or epicuticular wax composition pointed the accumulator properties of C. floribundus and P. gonoacantha. C. floribundus is a candidate for assessing potential accumulation of Cu, Cd, Mn, Ni, S and Zn. P. gonoacantha is a candidate to monitor polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Increased levels of secondary metabolites and decreased antioxidant capacity in leaves of A. graveolens may support its value as a bioindicator for oxidative pollutants by visible dark stipplings. - Highlights: • We searched for tree species from Atlantic Forest for future air pollution monitoring in Brazil. • Croton floribundus, Astronium graveolens and Piptadenia gonoacantha were possible bioindicators. • P. gonoachanta was a potential bioindicator of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. • C. floribundus was a potential bioindicator of heavy metals and sulfur. • A. graveolens may be used for monitoring oxidative pollutants, due to its biochemical leaf traits. - Inherent characteristics of the most abundant native tree species were potential biomarkers for assessing pollution effects on the highly diverse Atlantic Forest in SE-Brazil

  7. Assessment of the present and future offshore wind power potential: a case study in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lizuma, Lita; Avotniece, Zanita; Rupainis, Sergejs; Teilans, Artis

    2013-01-01

    Offshore wind energy development promises to be a significant domestic renewable energy source in Latvia. The reliable prediction of present and future wind resources at offshore sites is crucial for planning and selecting the location for wind farms. The overall goal of this paper is the assessment of offshore wind power potential in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast as well as the identification of a trend in the future wind energy potential for the study territory. The regional climate model CLM and High Resolution Limited Area Model (Hirlam) simulations were used to obtain the wind climatology data for the study area. The results indicated that offshore wind energy is promising for expanding the national electricity generation and will continue to be a stable resource for electricity generation in the region over the 21st century.

  8. Searching for native tree species and respective potential biomarkers for future assessment of pollution effects on the highly diverse Atlantic Forest in SE-Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domingos, Marisa; Bulbovas, Patricia; Camargo, Carla Z S; Aguiar-Silva, Cristiane; Brandão, Solange E; Dafré-Martinelli, Marcelle; Dias, Ana Paula L; Engela, Marcela R G S; Gagliano, Janayne; Moura, Barbara B; Alves, Edenise S; Rinaldi, Mirian C S; Gomes, Eduardo P C; Furlan, Claudia M; Figueiredo, Ana Maria G

    2015-07-01

    This study summarizes the first effort to search for bioindicator tree species and respective potential biomarkers for future assessment of potential mixed pollution effects on the highly diverse Atlantic Forest in SE-Brazil. Leaves of the three most abundant species inventoried in a phytosociological survey (Croton floribundus, Piptadenia gonoacantha and Astronium graveolens) were collected in four forest remnants during winter and summer (2012). Their potential bioindicator attributes were highlighted using a screening of morphological, chemical and biochemical markers. The leaf surface structure and/or epicuticular wax composition pointed the accumulator properties of C. floribundus and P. gonoacantha. C. floribundus is a candidate for assessing potential accumulation of Cu, Cd, Mn, Ni, S and Zn. P. gonoacantha is a candidate to monitor polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Increased levels of secondary metabolites and decreased antioxidant capacity in leaves of A. graveolens may support its value as a bioindicator for oxidative pollutants by visible dark stipplings. PMID:25818087

  9. How To Assess The Future Tree-Cover Potential For Reforestation Planning In Semi-Arid Regions? An Attempt Using The Vegetation Model ORCHIDEE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajaud, A.; De Noblet-Ducoudré, N.

    2015-12-01

    More and more reforestation projects are undertaken at local to continental scales to fight desertification, to address development challenges, and to improve local living conditions in tropical semi-arid regions. These regions are very sensitive to climatic changes and the potential for maintaining tree-covers will be altered in the next decades. Therefore, reforestation planning needs predicting the future "climatic tree-cover potential": the optimum tree-fraction sustainable in future climatic states. Global circulation models projections provide possible future climatologies for the 21st century. These can be used at the global scale to force a land-surface model, which in turn simulates the vegetation development under these conditions. The tree cover leading to an optimum development may then be identified. We propose here to run a state-of-the-art model and to assess the span and the relevance of the answers that can be obtained for reforestation planning. The ORCHIDEE vegetation model is chosen here to allow a multi-criteria evaluation of the optimum cover, as it returns surface climate state variables as well as vegetation functioning and biomass products. It is forced with global climate data (WFDEI and CRU) for the 20th century and models projections (CMIP5 outputs) for the 21st century. At the grid-cell resolution of the forcing climate data, tree-covers ranging from 0 to 100% are successively prescribed. A set of indicators is then derived from the model outputs, meant for modulating reforestation strategies according to the regional priorities (e.g. maximize the biomass production or decrease the surface air temperature). The choice of indicators and the relevance of the final answers provided will be collectively assessed by the climate scientists and reforestation project management experts from the KINOME social enterprise (http://en.kinome.fr). Such feedback will point towards the model most urging needs for improvement.

  10. Career Potential of Future Expert

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana Petrovna Tsaritsentseva

    2015-01-01

    This article is devoted to description and analysis of individual career potential. Topicality of the problem andthe degree of its readiness in the modern science are stated at the beginning of the article.Notions of “career”, career factors, career potential and inner resources of personality being a part of careerpotential structure due to their essence and structure are exposed and analyzed in represented work. Diagnosticprogram which gives an opportunity to study individual career potenti...

  11. FUTURES OPTIONS: UNIVERSE OF POTENTIAL PROFIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teselios Delia

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available A approaching options on futures contracts in the present paper is argued, on one hand, by the great number of their directions for use (in financial speculation, in managing and risk control, etc. and, on the other hand, by the fact that in Romania, nowadays, futures contracts and options represent the main categories of traded financial instruments. Because futures contract, as an underlying asset for options, it is often more liquid and involves more reduced transaction costs than cash product which corresponds to that futures contract, this paper presents a number of information regarding options on futures contracts, which offer a wide range of investment opportunities, being used to protect against adverse price moves in commodity, interest rate, foreign exchange and equity markets. There are presented two assessment models of these contracts, namely: an expansion of the Black_Scholes model published in 1976 by Fischer Black and the binomial model used especially for its flexibility. Likewise, there are presented a series of operations that can be performed using futures options and also arguments in favor of using these types of options.

  12. RANGELAND SEQUESTRATION POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee Spangler; George F. Vance; Gerald E. Schuman; Justin D. Derner

    2012-03-31

    Rangelands occupy approximately half of the world's land area and store greater than 10% of the terrestrial biomass carbon and up to 30% of the global soil organic carbon. Although soil carbon sequestration rates are generally low on rangelands in comparison to croplands, increases in terrestrial carbon in rangelands resulting from management can account for significant carbon sequestration given the magnitude of this land resource. Despite the significance rangelands can play in carbon sequestration, our understanding remains limited. Researchers conducted a literature review to identify sustainably management practices that conserve existing rangeland carbon pools, as well as increase or restore carbon sequestration potentials for this type of ecosystem. The research team also reviewed the impact of grazing management on rangeland carbon dynamics, which are not well understood due to heterogeneity in grassland types. The literature review on the impact of grazing showed a wide variation of results, ranging from positive to negative to no response. On further review, the intensity of grazing appears to be a major factor in controlling rangeland soil organic carbon dynamics. In 2003, researchers conducted field sampling to assess the effect of several drought years during the period 1993-2002. Results suggested that drought can significantly impact rangeland soil organic carbon (SOC) levels, and therefore, carbon sequestration. Resampling was conducted in 2006; results again suggested that climatic conditions may have overridden management effects on SOC due to the ecological lag of the severe drought of 2002. Analysis of grazing practices during this research effort suggested that there are beneficial effects of light grazing compared to heavy grazing and non-grazing with respect to increased SOC and nitrogen contents. In general, carbon storage in rangelands also increases with increased precipitation, although researchers identified threshold levels of

  13. Potential future waste-to-energy systems

    OpenAIRE

    Thorin, Eva; Guziana, Bozena; Song, Han; Jääskeläinen, Ari; Szpadt, Ryszard; Vasilic, Dejan; Ahrens, Thorsten; Anne, Olga; Lõõnik, Jaan

    2012-01-01

    This report discusses potential future systems for waste-to-energy production in the Baltic Sea Region, and especially for the project REMOWE partner regions, the County of Västmanland in Sweden, Northern Savo in Finland, Lower Silesia in Poland, western part of Lithuania and Estonia. The waste-to-energy systems planned for in the partner regions are combustion of municipal solid waste (MSW) and solid recovered fuels from household and industry as well as anaerobic digestion of sewage sludge ...

  14. Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evangelista, P.H.; Kumar, S.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Young, N.E.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of our study was to estimate forest vulnerability and potential distribution of three bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) under current and projected climate conditions for 2020 and 2050. Our study focused on the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis), and pine engraver (Ips pini). This study was conducted across eight states in the Interior West of the US covering approximately 2.2millionkm2 and encompassing about 95% of the Rocky Mountains in the contiguous US. Our analyses relied on aerial surveys of bark beetle outbreaks that occurred between 1991 and 2008. Occurrence points for each species were generated within polygons created from the aerial surveys. Current and projected climate scenarios were acquired from the WorldClim database and represented by 19 bioclimatic variables. We used Maxent modeling technique fit with occurrence points and current climate data to model potential beetle distributions and forest vulnerability. Three available climate models, each having two emission scenarios, were modeled independently and results averaged to produce two predictions for 2020 and two predictions for 2050 for each analysis. Environmental parameters defined by current climate models were then used to predict conditions under future climate scenarios, and changes in different species' ranges were calculated. Our results suggested that the potential distribution for bark beetles under current climate conditions is extensive, which coincides with infestation trends observed in the last decade. Our results predicted that suitable habitats for the mountain pine beetle and pine engraver beetle will stabilize or decrease under future climate conditions, while habitat for the western pine beetle will continue to increase over time. The greatest increase in habitat area was for the western pine beetle, where one climate model predicted a 27% increase by 2050. In contrast, the predicted habitat of the

  15. Estimation of potential evapotranspiration from extraterrestrial radiation, air temperature and humidity to assess future climate change effects on the vegetation of the Northern Great Plains, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominique M.; Symstad, Amy J.; Ferschweiler, Ken; Hobbins, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The potential evapotranspiration (PET) that would occur with unlimited plant access to water is a central driver of simulated plant growth in many ecological models. PET is influenced by solar and longwave radiation, temperature, wind speed, and humidity, but it is often modeled as a function of temperature alone. This approach can cause biases in projections of future climate impacts in part because it confounds the effects of warming due to increased greenhouse gases with that which would be caused by increased radiation from the sun. We developed an algorithm for linking PET to extraterrestrial solar radiation (incoming top-of atmosphere solar radiation), as well as temperature and atmospheric water vapor pressure, and incorporated this algorithm into the dynamic global vegetation model MC1. We tested the new algorithm for the Northern Great Plains, USA, whose remaining grasslands are threatened by continuing woody encroachment. Both the new and the standard temperature-dependent MC1 algorithm adequately simulated current PET, as compared to the more rigorous PenPan model of Rotstayn et al. (2006). However, compared to the standard algorithm, the new algorithm projected a much more gradual increase in PET over the 21st century for three contrasting future climates. This difference led to lower simulated drought effects and hence greater woody encroachment with the new algorithm, illustrating the importance of more rigorous calculations of PET in ecological models dealing with climate change.

  16. Physical literacy: importance, assessment and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giblin, Susan; Collins, Dave; Button, Chris

    2014-09-01

    Physical literacy (PL) has become a major focus of physical education, physical activity and sports promotion worldwide. PL is a multifaceted conceptualisation of the skills required to fully realise potentials through embodied experience. Substantial financial investments in PL education by governments are underpinned by a wide range of anticipated benefits, including expectations of significant future savings to healthcare, improved physical and psychological well-being of the population, increased work-force productivity and raised levels of expertise in sport and exercise participation. However, disappointingly, scientific evidence showing the efficacy of PL interventions to successfully meet such high expectation is limited. We suggest that contradictions in research findings are due largely to limitations in movement assessment batteries and consequent discrepancies between measurements used to assess the immediate outcomes of PL programmes. Notably, there is no robust empirical tool for evidencing skill learning in the physical movement component of PL, education and this presents a serious limitation to the design of, and claims that can be made for, such interventions. Considering the parameters of proficient PL skills and the limitations of current evaluation instruments, possible future directions for developing empirical measures of PL movement skills are presented. PMID:24898813

  17. Remimazolam: The future of its sedative potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goudra, Basavana Gouda; Singh, Preet Mohinder

    2014-07-01

    Remimazolam (CNS 7056) is a new drug innovation in anesthesia. It combines the properties of two unique drugs already established in anesthesia - Midazolam and remifentanil. It acts on GABA receptors like midazolam and has organ-independent metabolism like remifentanil. It is likely to be the sedative of the future, as preliminary phase II trials have shown minimal residual effects on prolonged infusions. It has potential to be used as a sedative in ICU and as a novel agent for procedural sedation. Unlike most rapidly acting intravenous sedatives available presently, the propensity to cause apnea is very low. Availability of a specific antagonist (flumazenil) adds to its safety even in cases of overdose. The present review discusses remimazolam's potential as a new drug in anesthesia along with the presently available literary evidence. PMID:25191193

  18. Asian water futures - Multi scenarios, models and criteria assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Satoh, Y.; Burek, P.; Wada, Y.; M. Flörke; Eisner, S.; Hanasaki, N.; Kahil, T.; Tramberend, S.; Fischer, G; Wiberg, D.

    2016-01-01

    A better understanding of the current and future availability of water resources is essential for the implementation of the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Long-term/efficient strategies for coping with current and potential future water-related challenges are urgently required. Although Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were develop for the impact assessment of climate change, very few assessments have yet used the SSP...

  19. Application of the coastal generalized ecosystem model (CGEM) to assess the impacts of a potential future climate scenario on northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mechanistic hypoxia models for the northern Gulf of Mexico are being used to guide policy goals for Mississippi River nutrient loading reductions. However, to date, these models have not examined the effects of both nutrient loads and future climate. Here, we simulate a future c...

  20. The Future Potential of Internet of Things

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aelita Skaržauskienė

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To define the Internet of things and to analyze it as a background for the internet of services.Design/methodology/approach: The article discusses potential possibilities and problematic issues concerning the Internet of things (IoT and Internet of services (IoS. The debates concerning IoT and its possible application fields have continued for more than ten years. The technological background is there and the fields of application are broad. However, there is still a lack of understanding about the possible benefits that technology could give to various bodies if applied correctly. This article is based on comparison and analysis of scientific articles, research papers and case studies related to the potential for IoT and its implementation in IoS.Theoretical findings: IoT is a logical evolutionary step for the internet. Despite the technological background, the concept of objects which are aware of their surroundings, allow to manipulate them by defining different rule patterns and ensuring interaction possibilities with other objects or human beings. The necessity for web-based services is increasing along with the technological gadgets which support them. Applying things, which are connected in a network, could revolutionize many industry and service sectors and create new service provision and administration methods based on information technology. However, there are many problematic issues and research challenges related to the IoT. Few of the most significant are related to standardization of technology, legal regulation and ethical aspects concerning the IoT technology.Research limitations/implications: The IoT is a popular trend promoted by the business sector and governmental bodies. There are few comprehensive studies and projects which talk about the benefits that business and society could gain from the IoT. There is a lot less information about the possible risk and problematic aspects, and a lack of agreements between the

  1. Colorado Plateau Rapid Ecoregion Assessment Management Question F2: Where are the areas of potential future encroachment from this invasive species?

    Data.gov (United States)

    Bureau of Land Management, Department of the Interior — This map shows the current distribution of major invasive vegetation species (primarily cheatgrass and tamarisk), and predicted near-term future distribution of...

  2. NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems Planning and Potential Future Systems Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakrajsek, June F.; Woerner, Dave F.; Cairns-Gallimore, Dirk; Johnson, Stephen G.; Qualls, Louis

    2016-01-01

    The goal of NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) Program is to make RPS ready and available to support the exploration of the solar system in environments where the use of conventional solar or chemical power generation is impractical or impossible to meet the needs of the missions. To meet this goal, the RPS Program, working closely with the Department of Energy, performs mission and system studies (such as the recently released Nuclear Power Assessment Study), assesses the readiness of promising technologies to infuse in future generators, assesses the sustainment of key RPS capabilities and knowledge, forecasts and tracks the Program's budgetary needs, and disseminates current information about RPS to the community of potential users. This process has been refined and used to determine the current content of the RPS Program's portfolio. This portfolio currently includes an effort to mature advanced thermoelectric technology for possible integration into an enhanced Multi-Mission Radioisotope Generator (eMMRTG), sustainment and production of the currently deployed MMRTG, and technology investments that could lead to a future Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG). This paper describes the program planning processes that have been used, the currently available MMRTG, and one of the potential future systems, the eMMRTG.

  3. Assessment on the rates and potentials of soil organic carbon sequestration in agricultural lands in Japan using a process-based model and spatially explicit land-use change inventories - Part 2: Future potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yagasaki, Y.; Shirato, Y.

    2014-08-01

    Future potentials of the sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural lands in Japan were estimated using a simulation system we recently developed to simulate SOC stock change at country-scale under varying land-use change, climate, soil, and agricultural practices, in a spatially explicit manner. Simulation was run from 1970 to 2006 with historical inventories, and subsequently to 2020 with future scenarios of agricultural activity comprised of various agricultural policy targets advocated by the Japanese government. Furthermore, the simulation was run subsequently until 2100 while forcing no temporal changes in land-use and agricultural activity to investigate duration and course of SOC stock change at country scale. A scenario with an increased rate of organic carbon input to agricultural fields by intensified crop rotation in combination with the suppression of conversion of agricultural lands to other land-use types was found to have a greater reduction of CO2 emission by enhanced soil carbon sequestration, but only under a circumstance in which the converted agricultural lands will become settlements that were considered to have a relatively lower rate of organic carbon input. The size of relative reduction of CO2 emission in this scenario was comparable to that in another contrasting scenario (business-as-usual scenario of agricultural activity) in which a relatively lower rate of organic matter input to agricultural fields was assumed in combination with an increased rate of conversion of the agricultural fields to unmanaged grasslands through abandonment. Our simulation experiment clearly demonstrated that net-net-based accounting on SOC stock change, defined as the differences between the emissions and removals during the commitment period and the emissions and removals during a previous period (base year or base period of Kyoto Protocol), can be largely influenced by variations in future climate. Whereas baseline-based accounting, defined

  4. The Future Potential of Internet of Things

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aelita Skaržauskienė

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To define the Internet of things and to analyze it as a background for the internet of services. Design/methodology/approach: The article discusses potential possibilities and problematic issues concerning the Internet of things (IoT and Internet of services (IoS. The debates concerning IoT and its possible application fields have continued for more than ten years. The technological background is there and the fields of application are broad. However, there is still a lack of understanding about the possible benefits that technology could give to various bodies if applied correctly. This article is based on comparison and analysis of scientific articles, research papers and case studies related to the potential for IoT and its implementation in IoS. Theoretical findings: IoT is a logical evolutionary step for the internet. Despite the technological background, the concept of objects which are aware of their surroundings, allow to manipulate them by defining different rule patterns and ensuring interaction possibilities with other objects or human beings. The necessity for web-based services is increasing along with the technological gadgets which support them. Applying things, which are connected in a network, could revolutionize many industry and service sectors and create new service provision and administration methods based on information technology. However, there are many problematic issues and research challenges related to the IoT. Few of the most significant are related to standardization of technology, legal regulation and ethical aspects concerning the IoT technology. Research limitations/implications: The IoT is a popular trend promoted by the business sector and governmental bodies. There are few comprehensive studies and projects which talk about the benefits that business and society could gain from the IoT. There is a lot less information about the possible risk and problematic aspects, and a lack of agreements between

  5. Global Energy Assessment. Toward a Sustainable Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johansson, T.B.; Nakicenovic, N.; Patwardhan, A.; Gomez-Echeverri, L. (eds.)

    2012-11-01

    The Global Energy Assessment (GEA) brings together over 300 international researchers to provide an independent, scientifically based, integrated and policy-relevant analysis of current and emerging energy issues and options. It has been peer-reviewed anonymously by an additional 200 international experts. The GEA assesses the major global challenges for sustainable development and their linkages to energy; the technologies and resources available for providing energy services; future energy systems that address the major challenges; and the policies and other measures that are needed to realize transformational change toward sustainable energy futures. The GEA goes beyond existing studies on energy issues by presenting a comprehensive and integrated analysis of energy challenges, opportunities and strategies, for developing, industrialized and emerging economies. This volume is an invaluable resource for energy specialists and technologists in all sectors (academia, industry and government) as well as policymakers, development economists and practitioners in international organizations and national governments.

  6. Onshore wind energy potential over Iberia: present and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rochinha, Carlos A.; Santos, João A.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2014-05-01

    Onshore grid-connected wind power generation has been explored for more than three decades in the Iberian Peninsula. Further, increasing attention has been devoted to renewable energy sources in a climate change context. While advantages of wind energy are widely recognized, its distribution is not spatially homogeneous and not uniform throughout the year. Hence, understanding these spatial-temporal distributions is critical in power system planning. The present study aims at assessing the potential power output estimated from 10 m wind components simulated by a regional climate model (CCLM), driven by ERA40 reanalysis. Datasets are available on a grid with a high spatial resolution (approximately 20 km) and over a 40-yr period (1961-2000). Furthermore, several target sites, located in areas with high installed wind generation capacity, are selected for local-to-regional scale assessments. The results show that potential wind power is higher over northern Iberia, mostly in Cantabria and Galicia, while Andalucía and Cataluña record the lowest values. With respect to the intra-annual variability, summer is by far the season with the lowest potential energy outputs. Furthermore, the inter-annual variability reveals an overall downward long-term trend over the 40-yr period, particularly in the winter time series. A CCLM transient experiment, forced by the SRES A1B emission scenario, is also discussed for a future period (2041-2070), after a model validation/calibration process (bias corrections). Significant changes in the wind power potential are projected for the future throughout Iberia, but their magnitude largely depends on the locations. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER- 019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

  7. Staging the Future--Potentializing the Self

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjerg, Helle

    2013-01-01

    This article frames a qualitative analysis of how a particular actualization of independent project work may be understood as a "pedagogy of potentialization" that relies on schooling the desire to learn as creation and (self-)transgression. The framework for analyzing school as an affective space draws on conceptualizations of affect,…

  8. The Future Potential of Waver Power in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirko Previsic; Jeff Epler; Maureen Hand; Donna Heimiller; Walter Short; Kelly Eurek

    2012-09-20

    The theoretical ocean wave energy resource potential exceeds 50% of the annual domestic energy demand of the United States, is located close to coastal population centers, and, although variable in nature, may be more consistent and predictable than some other renewable generation technologies. As a renewable electricity generation technology, ocean wave energy offers a low air pollutant option for diversifying the U.S. electricity generation portfolio. Furthermore, the output characteristics of these technologies may complement other renewable technologies. This study addresses the following: (1) The theoretical, technical and practical potential for electricity generation from wave energy (2) The present lifecycle cost profile (Capex, Opex, and Cost of Electricity) of wave energy conversion technology at a reference site in Northern California at different plant scales (3) Cost of electricity variations as a function of deployment site, considering technical, geo-spatial and and electric grid constraints (4) Technology cost reduction pathways (5) Cost reduction targets at which the technology will see significant deployment within US markets, explored through a series of deployment scenarios RE Vision Consulting, LLC (RE Vision), engaged in various analyses to establish current and future cost profiles for marine hydrokinetic (MHK) technologies, quantified the theoretical, technical and practical resource potential, performed electricity market assessments and developed deployment scenarios. RE Vision was supported in this effort by NREL analysts, who compiled resource information, performed analysis using the ReEDSa model to develop deployment scenarios, and developed a simplified assessment of the Alaska and Hawaii electricity markets.

  9. Assessing potential future environmental legal events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonn, B. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Petrich, C. [The Ernst and Yound Center for Business Innovation, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1997-10-28

    This report addresses the topic of environmental citizenship in the United States. The term refers to responsibilities each of us have with respect to helping our communities and nation make sound environmental decisions. This research centers on the citizens and what we ought to be doing, as opposed to what the government ought to be doing for us, to improve environmental citizenship. This report examines four central questions: What are the requirements (i.e., responsibilities) of citizenship vis-a-vis environmental decision- making processes; what constraints limit people`s ability to meet these requirements; what does our form of governance do to help or hinder in meeting these requirements; and what recommendations can be put forth to improve public participation in environmental decision making?

  10. Voice over Internet Protocol (VOIP: Future Potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ms. Deepti

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available VoIP (voice over IP delivers standard voice over telephone services over Internet Protocol (IP. VoIP is the technology of digitizing sound, compressing it, breaking it up into data packets, and sending it over an IP (internet protocol network where it is reassembled, decompressed, and converted back into an analog wave form. Gateways are the key component required to facilitate IP Telephony. A gateway is used to bridge the traditional circuit switched PSTN with the packet switched Internet. The paper covers software, hardware and protocol requirements followed by weighing the VoIP advantages such as low cost, portability, free and advanced features, bandwidth efficiency, call recording and monitoring against the VoIP disadvantages such as power dependency, quality of voice and service, security, and reliability. With ever increasing internet penetration and better broadband connectivity, VoIP is going to expand further with businesses already using VoIP standalone or in a hybrid format, although our focus and scope here remains VoIP. Mobile VoIP, an infant with less than 4% market share, has so far been focusing on increasing active subscriptions without a sustainable revenue model, but has the potential and is going to see tussle with static VoIP for space in days ahead.

  11. VOICE OVER INTERNET PROTOCOL (VOIP: FUTURE POTENTIAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepti Kumari

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available VoIP (voice over IP delivers standard voice over telephone services over Internet Protocol (IP. VoIP is the technology of digitizing sound, compressing it, breaking it up into data packets, and sending it over an IP (internet protocol network where it is reassembled, decompressed, and converted back into an analog wave form. Gateways are the key component required to facilitate IP Telephony. A gateway is used to bridge the traditional circuit switched PSTN with the packet switched Internet. The paper covers software, hardware and protocol requirements followed by weighing the VoIP advantages such as low cost, portability, free and advanced features, bandwidth efficiency, call recording and monitoring against the VoIP disadvantages such as power dependency, quality of voice and service, security, and reliability. With ever increasing internet penetration and better broadband connectivity, VoIP is going to expand further with businesses already using VoIP standalone or in a hybrid format, although our focus and scope here remains VoIP. Mobile VoIP, an infant with less than 4% market share, has so far been focusing on increasing active subscriptions without a sustainable revenue model, but has the potential and is going to see tussle with static VoIP for space in days ahead.

  12. Assessment of wind energy potential in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhu Rong; Zhang De; Wang Yuedong; Xing Xuhuang; Li Zechun

    2009-01-01

    China wind atlas was made by numerical simulation and the wind energy potential in China was calculated. The model system for wind energy resource assessment was set up based on Canadian Wind Energy Simulating Toolkit (WEST) and the simulating method was as follows. First, the weather classes were obtained depend on meteorological data of 30 years. Then, driven by the initial meteorological field produced by each weather class, the meso-scale model ran for the distribution of wind energy resources according each weather class condition one by one. Finally, averaging all the modeling output weighted by the occurrence frequency of each weather class, the annual mean distribution of wind energy resources was worked out. Compared the simulated wind energy potential with other results from several ac-tivities and studies for wind energy resource assessment, it is found that the simulated wind energy potential in mainland of China is 3 times that from the second and the third investigations for wind energy resources by CMA, and is similar to the wind energy potential obtained by NREL in Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment (SWERA) project. The simulated offshore wind energy potential of China seems smaller than the true value. According to the simulated results of CMA and considering lots of limited factors to wind energy development, the final conclusion can be obtained that the wind energy availability in China is 700~1 200 GW, in which 600~1 000 GW is in mainland and 100~200 GW is on offshore, and wind power will become the important part of energy composition in future.

  13. Assessing the future of green building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Raymond J.

    2005-04-01

    As the realities of resource depletion and global environmental degradation become more evident, we can anticipate a maturing and strengthening of the public's concern and knowledge on environmental issues. This will translate into an expectation for greater environmental responsibility and, as with other sectors, the building industry will be increasingly scrutinized for its environmental actions. The adoption of environmental strategies has been accelerated by the emergence of building environmental assessment methods that have provided both a definition and common language for green buildings as well as a means of communicating performance improvements. Whereas the current focus is on ``green'' design-reducing or mitigating the environmental consequences of buildings-the future concerns will embrace mitigation, adaptation to the new conditions and restoring previous adversely impacted regions and human settlements. This presentation will provide an overview of the evolution of green building practices to set a context for understanding emerging issues in building acoustics. Since the adoption of green building practices is a function of the context that shapes political and public priorities, the presentation compares and contrasts several short and long-term scenarios some certain, others more speculative and their direct and indirect consequences for environmental progress building design.

  14. Are CCRCs facing a promising future or potential problems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruchlin, H S

    1987-10-01

    In a recently completed study profiling CCRCs, it was concluded that CCRCs are showing an improved financial position. However, financial problems were noted. In many cases, income and equity deficits were reported. Financial ratios indicated additional potential problems. Unless improvements can be made, CCRCs may be facing a future of financial difficulties.

  15. The Future of Data-Enriched Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thille, Candace; Schneider, Emily; Kizilcec, René F.; Piech, Christopher; Halawa, Sherif A.; Greene, Daniel K.

    2014-01-01

    The article addresses the question of how the assessment process with large-scale data derived from online learning environments will be different from the assessment process without it. Following an explanation of big data and how it is different from previously available learner data, we describe three notable features that characterize…

  16. Anticipating the future: assessment of occupational function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trombly, C

    1993-03-01

    I believe that the occupational therapy assessment procedure should reflect our conceptualization of occupational functioning and that there should be a congruence among goals, assessments, and treatment. I believe that there should be a universal occupational therapy intake assessment procedure that follows a top-down approach to clarify for the client that the role of occupational therapy is to promote his or her occupational functioning. All the layers of function that we treat should be assessed, with the particulars of context incorporated into assessments at the activity and higher levels. Further and most important, occupational functioning should be fully conceptualized and the relevant constructs and their relationships verified and made clear to all. PMID:8456926

  17. The Potential Role for Fusion Power in Future Energy Markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: In order to explore the potential role for fusion in a future energy market, and clarify the conditions under which fusion may be important in different world regions, a global energy scenario model, based on the model generator TIMES supplied by the International Energy Agency, has been developed. The model covers the whole of this century and includes fusion technologies. Results are reported here. (author)

  18. The Physics Potential of Future Long Baseline Neutrino Oscillation Experiments

    OpenAIRE

    Lindner, M.

    2002-01-01

    We discuss in detail different future long baseline neutrino oscillation setups and we show the remarkable potential for very precise measurements of mass splittings and mixing angles. Furthermore it will be possible to make precise tests of coherent forward scattering and MSW effects, which allow to determine the sign of $\\Delta m^2$. Finally strong limits or measurements of leptonic CP violation will be possible, which is very interesting since it is most likely connected to the baryon asym...

  19. NextGen Future Safety Assessment Game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ancel, Ersin; Gheorghe, Adrian; Jones, Sharon Monica

    2011-01-01

    The successful implementation of the next generation infrastructure systems requires solid understanding of their technical, social, political and economic aspects along with their interactions. The lack of historical data that relate to the long-term planning of complex systems introduces unique challenges for decision makers and involved stakeholders which in turn result in unsustainable systems. Also, the need to understand the infrastructure at the societal level and capture the interaction between multiple stakeholders becomes important. This paper proposes a methodology in order to develop a holistic approach aiming to provide an alternative subject-matter expert (SME) elicitation and data collection method for future sociotechnical systems. The methodology is adapted to Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) decision making environment in order to demonstrate the benefits of this holistic approach.

  20. Coastal Community Adaptation to Future Potential Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prime, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    This research project aims to determine the physical and economic resilience of coastal communities. This translates into identifying how such communities can adapt to potential future climate change in the most efficient cost effective way. Fleetwood in Lancashire has been chosen as a case study site, with recently refurbished sea defences. This research is interested in the best way to maintain resilience of the defences over long time horizons and against low probability high impact events as the coastal defences deteriorate. We assess coastal flood risk using a flood inundation model called LISFLOOD-FP, this is a 2D hydrodynamic model designed to simulate flood inundation over complex topography. LISFLOOD-FP predicts water depths in each grid cell at each time step, simulating the dynamic propagation of flood waves over fluvial, coastal and estuarine floodplains. The model is forced at the boundary with an extreme water level that has a defined probability of occurring, e.g. 1 in 100 years. This is combined with a scaled surge curve for the area, a high spring tidal curve and the addition of a sea level rise parameter, which is dependent on the defined time horizon and future carbon emissions scenarios. LISFLOOD-FP has been extended to simulate wave over-topping of sea defences, this is achieved by using a Shallow Water And Boussinesq (SWAB) 1D model which models wave over-topping of sea defences. The outputs from this model can be added into LISFLOOD as a flow of water that originates from the top of the sea defences and simulates the over topping. The simulation has also been extended further by adding a river component. The flow within the river channel has been added into the model as a 1D vector with bed elevation and width, the river flow vector consists of a hydro-graph of a high flow event. Return period analysis will be applied to the river peaks over threshold data and the example hydro-graph can then be tailored to the peak return period flow rate

  1. Asian water futures - Multi scenarios, models and criteria assessment -

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Wada, Yoshihide; Flrörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Kahil, Taher; Tramberend, Sylvia; Fischer, Günther; Wiberg, David

    2016-04-01

    A better understanding of the current and future availability of water resources is essential for the implementation of the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Long-term/efficient strategies for coping with current and potential future water-related challenges are urgently required. Although Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were develop for the impact assessment of climate change, very few assessments have yet used the SSPs to assess water resources. Then the IIASA Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS), developed a set of water use scenarios consistent with RCPs and SSPs and applying the latest climate changes scenarios. Here this study focuses on results for Asian countries for the period 2010-2050. We present three conceivable future pathways of Asian water resources, determined by feasible combinations of two RCPs and three SSPs. Such a scenario approach provides valuable insights towards identifying appropriate strategies as gaps between a "scenario world" and reality. In addition, for the assessment of future water resources a multi-criteria analysis is applied. A classification system for countries and watershed that consists of two broad dimensions: (i) economic and institutional adaptive capacity, (ii) hydrological complexity. The latter is composed of several sub-indexes including total renewable water resources per capita, the ratio of water demand to renewable water resource, variability of runoff and dependency ratio to external. Furthermore, this analysis uses a multi-model approach to estimate runoff and discharge using 5 GCMs and 5 global hydrological models (GHMs). Three of these GHMs calculate water use based on a consistent set of scenarios in addition to water availability. As a result, we have projected hot spots of water scarcity in Asia and their spatial and temporal change. For example, in a scenario based on SSP2 and RCP6.0, by 2050, in total 2.1 billion people

  2. Environmental assessment process needs and future directions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gustafson, P.F.

    1985-01-01

    The environmental assessment process as legislatively mandated by the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) constitutes a double-edged sword as regards the successful management and disposal of radioactive waste. On the one hand, NEPA requires identification and disclosure of the environmental and societal consequences of a given major federal action, consideration of alternatives and/or mitigative measures leading to the same end result, a balancing of costs and benefits, and provides for and encourages public participation in the decision-making process regarding the proposed action(s). On the other hand, public participation supported by judicial decisions, based more upon procedural than substantive issues, may delay, alter, or indeed prohibit a proposed course of action. If the cognizant federal agencies (DOE and NRC in the radioactive waste area) comply with both the spirit and the letter of NEPA a framework for the successful management of radioactive wastes on all types can be developed. If however, these agencies are less than earnest in their NEPA compliance actions or if public opposition is backed by overzealous court action, any radioactive waste management/disposal action (however technically sound) can be hoisted upon a petard from which it may not be freed until well into the next century.

  3. GIS Based Analysis of future district heating potential in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steffen; Möller, Bernd

    2012-01-01

    The physical placement of buildings is important when determining the future potential for district heating (DH). Good locations for DH are mainly determined by having a large heat demand within a certain area combined with an access to local resources. In Denmark, the placement of buildings and...... finding the heat production cost within these areas, and adding transmission and distribution costs, the economic feasibility of supplying areas with DH is found. The result of the analysis is that the DH potential differs from area to area. In many areas it is economically feasible to expand DH, while in...... others production costs and grid losses should be reduced for DH expansions to be feasible. Including transmission and distribution costs into the calculation, gives an idea about where the boundaries for DH are. These boundaries are not static, but changes under different conditions....

  4. A generic hydroeconomic model to assess future water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice

    2015-04-01

    We developed a generic hydroeconomic model able to confront future water supply and demand on a large scale, taking into account man-made reservoirs. The assessment is done at the scale of river basins, using only globally available data; the methodology can thus be generalized. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources. The available quantity of water at each site is computed using the following information: runoff is taken from the outputs of CNRM climate model (Dubois et al., 2010), reservoirs are located using Aquastat, and the sub-basin flow-accumulation area of each reservoir is determined based on a Digital Elevation Model (HYDRO1k). On the demand side, agricultural and domestic demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. For the agricultural sector, globally available data on irrigated areas and crops are combined in order to determine irrigated crops localization. Then, crops irrigation requirements are computed for the different stages of the growing season using Allen (1998) method with Hargreaves potential evapotranspiration. Irrigation water economic value is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. Potential irrigated and rainfed yields are taken from LPJmL (Blondeau et al., 2007), or from FAOSTAT by making simple assumptions on yield ratios. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The method consists in building three-blocks inverse demand functions where volume limits of the blocks evolve with the level of GDP per capita. The value of water along the demand curve is determined from price-elasticity, price and demand data from the literature, using the point-expansion method, and from water costs data. Then projected demands are confronted to future water availability. Operating rules of the reservoirs and water allocation between demands are based on

  5. Natural Products Towards the Discovery of Potential Future Antithrombotic Drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Md Asiful; Alam, Fahmida; Khalil, Md Ibrahim; Sasongko, Teguh Haryo; Gan, Siew Hua

    2016-01-01

    Globally, thrombosis-associated disorders are one of the main contributors to fatalities. Besides genetic influences, there are some acquired and environmental risk factors dominating thrombotic diseases. Although standard regimens have been used for a long time, many side effects still occur which can be life threatening. Therefore, natural products are good alternatives. Although the quest for antithrombotic natural products came to light only since the end of last century, in the last two decades, a considerable number of natural products showing antithrombotic activities (antiplatelet, anticoagulant and fibrinolytic) with no or minimal side effects have been reported. In this review, several natural products used as antithrombotic agents including medicinal plants, vegetables, fruits, spices and edible mushrooms which have been discovered in the last 15 years and their target sites (thrombogenic components, factors and thrombotic pathways) are described. In addition, the side effects, limitations and interactions of standard regimens with natural products are also discussed. The active compounds could serve as potential sources for future research on antithrombotic drug development. As a future direction, more advanced researches (in quest of the target cofactor or component involved in antithrombotic pathways) are warranted for the development of potential natural antithrombotic medications (alone or combined with standard regimens) to ensure maximum safety and efficacy. PMID:26951101

  6. Database for potential hazards from future volcanic eruptions in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Melissa N.; Ramsey, David W.; Miller, C. Dan

    2011-01-01

    More than 500 volcanic vents have been identified in the State of California. At least 76 of these vents have erupted, some repeatedly, during the past 10,000 yr. Past volcanic activity has ranged in scale and type from small rhyolitic and basaltic eruptions through large catastrophic rhyolitic eruptions. Sooner or later, volcanoes in California will erupt again, and they could have serious impacts on the health and safety of the State's citizens as well as on its economy. This report describes the nature and probable distribution of potentially hazardous volcanic phenomena and their threat to people and property. It includes hazard-zonation maps that show areas relatively likely to be affected by future eruptions in California. This digital release contains information from maps of potential hazards from future volcanic eruptions in the state of California, published as Plate 1 in U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 1847. The main component of this digital release is a spatial database prepared using geographic information systems (GIS) applications. This release also contains links to files to view or print the map plate, main report text, and accompanying hazard tables from Bulletin 1847. It should be noted that much has been learned about the ages of eruptive events in the State of California since the publication of Bulletin 1847 in 1989. For the most up to date information on the status of California volcanoes, please refer to the U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Hazards Program website.

  7. The future of human rights impact assessments of trade agreements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Walker, S.M.

    2009-01-01

    The Future of Human Rights Impact Assessments of Trade Agreements develops a methodology for human rights impact assessments of trade agreements and considers whether there is any value in using the methodology on a sustained basis to ensure that the human dimensions of international trade are taken

  8. Potential effect of future climate changes on productivity of selected crops in Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brzóska Barbara

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Potential effect of future climate changes on productivity of selected crops in Poland. Future projections of selected climate indices have been used to assess potential effects of climate changes on productivity of selected crops in Poland. CMIP5 global climate models’ results for the future period (2006-2035 and historical one (1981-2010 are used in the study. Models predict decrease in count of days with extreme low temperatures and increase in count of days with extreme high temperatures. An increase in the number of days with very heavy precipitation is also predicted. Not all climate change effects have negative impact on crop productivity in Poland but all of them confirm requirements to put into practice mitigation and adaptation strategies for Poland’s agriculture.

  9. Future physics potential of CMS Phase II detector

    CERN Document Server

    Pozzobon, Nicola

    2015-01-01

    To extend the LHC physics program, it is foreseen to operate the LHC in the future with an unprecedented high luminosity. To maintain the experiment’s physics potential in such harsh environment, the detector will need to be upgraded. At the same time the detector acceptance will be extended and new features such as a L1 track trigger will be implemented. Simulation studies evaluated the performance of the new, proposed detector components in comparison to the present detector with the expected aging after 1000 fb$^{-1}$. The impact of the expected Phase II performance on representative physics channels is studied. The sensitivity to find new physics beyond the SM is significantly improved and will allow to extend the SUSY reach, search for dark matter and exotic long-lived signatures. Precision Higgs and standard model measurements will gain substantially due to the improved performance.

  10. Cyto- and genotoxicological assessment and functional characterization of N-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone-acrylic acid-based copolymeric hydrogels with potential for future use in wound healing applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirf, Dominik; Devery, Sinead M [Department of Life and Physical Science, Athlone Institute of Technology (Ireland); Higginbotham, Clement L [Materials Research Institute, Athlone Institute of Technology (Ireland); Rowan, Neil J, E-mail: sdevery@ait.i, E-mail: dkirf@ait.i, E-mail: chigginbotham@ait.i, E-mail: nrowan@ait.i [Department of Nursing and Health Science, Athlone Institute of Technology (Ireland)

    2010-06-01

    This study investigated the toxicity of N-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone-acrylic acid copolymer hydrogels crosslinked with ethylene glycol dimethacrylate or poly(ethylene glycol) dimethacrylate. There is a pressing need to establish the toxicity status of these new copolymers because they may find applications in future wound healing processes. Investigations revealed that the capacity of these hydrogels for swelling permitted the retention of high amounts of water yet still maintaining structural integrity. Reverse phase HPLC analysis suggested that unreacted monomeric base material was efficiently removed post-polymerization by applying an additional purification process. Subsequently, in vitro toxicity testing was performed utilizing direct and indirect contact exposure of the polymers to human keratinocytes (HaCaT) and human hepatoma (HepG2) cells. No indication of significant cell death was observed using the established MTT, neutral red (NR) and fluorescence-based toxicity endpoint indicators. In addition, the alkaline Comet assay showed no genotoxic effects following cell exposure to hydrogel extracts. Investigations at the nucleotide level using the Ames mutagenicity assay demonstrated no evidence of mutagenic activity associated with the polymers. Findings from this study demonstrated that these hydrogels are non-cytotoxic and further work can be carried out to investigate their potential as a wound-healing device that will impact positively on patient health and well-being.

  11. Future changes in global warming potentials under representative concentration pathways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global warming potentials (GWPs) are the metrics currently used to compare emissions of different greenhouse gases under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Future changes in greenhouse gas concentrations will alter GWPs because the radiative efficiencies of marginal changes in CO2, CH4 and N2O depend on their background concentrations, the removal of CO2 is influenced by climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, and atmospheric residence times of CH4 and N2O also depend on ambient temperature and other environmental changes. We calculated the currently foreseeable future changes in the absolute GWP of CO2, which acts as the denominator for the calculation of all GWPs, and specifically the GWPs of CH4 and N2O, along four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) up to the year 2100. We find that the absolute GWP of CO2 decreases under all RCPs, although for longer time horizons this decrease is smaller than for short time horizons due to increased climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. The 100-year GWP of CH4 would increase up to 20% under the lowest RCP by 2100 but would decrease by up to 10% by mid-century under the highest RCP. The 100-year GWP of N2O would increase by more than 30% by 2100 under the highest RCP but would vary by less than 10% under other scenarios. These changes are not negligible but are mostly smaller than the changes that would result from choosing a different time horizon for GWPs, or from choosing altogether different metrics for comparing greenhouse gas emissions, such as global temperature change potentials.

  12. Is Environmental Impact Assessment fulfilling its potential?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2014-01-01

    fuel with CO2-neutral energy sources. A variety of these projects are subject to environmental impact assessment (EIA), which raises the following questions: What role does an impact assessment play? When is the project environmentally friendly? How are climate change-related impacts assessed......One of the topics receiving much attention in recent years is climate change and the potential of its integration in impact assessment, both in terms of achieving mitigation and adaptation. Renewable energy projects are part of the efforts to mitigate climate change, replacing the use of fossil...... adaptation is absent. Also, the results show an emphasis on positive impacts in the reports, and in a few cases discussions of enhancements. Identification and assessment of negative climate change impacts are less apparent. This leads to a discussion of the results in the light of the purpose of EIA....

  13. Polyphenols: Potential Future Arsenals in the Treatment of Diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solayman, Md; Ali, Yousuf; Alam, Fahmida; Islam, Md Asiful; Alam, Nadia; Khalil, Md Ibrahim; Gan, Siew Hua

    2016-01-01

    Diabetes mellitus (DM) is one of the most common endocrine metabolic disorders. In addition to exercise and diet, oral anti-diabetic drugs have been used as a part of the management strategy worldwide. Unfortunately, none of the conventional anti-diabetic drugs are without side effects, and these drugs pose an economic burden. Therefore, the investigation of novel anti-diabetic regimens is a major challenge for researchers, in which nature has been the primary resource for the discovery of potential therapeutics. Many plants have been shown to act as anti-diabetic agents, in which the main active constituents are believed to be polyphenols. Natural products containing high polyphenol levels can control carbohydrate metabolism by various mechanisms, such as protecting and restoring beta-cell integrity, enhancing insulin releasing activity, and increasing cellular glucose uptake. Blackberries, red grapes, apricots, eggplant and popular drinks such as coffee, cocoa and green tea are all rich in polyphenols, which may dampen insulin resistance and be natural alternatives in the treatment of diabetes. Therefore, the aim of this review is to report on the available anti-diabetic polyphenols (medicinal plants, fruits and vegetables), their mechanisms in the various pathways of DM and their correlations with DM. Additionally, this review emphasizes the types of polyphenols that could be potential future resources in the treatment of DM via either novel regimens or as supplementary agents.

  14. Polyphenols: Potential Future Arsenals in the Treatment of Diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solayman, Md; Ali, Yousuf; Alam, Fahmida; Islam, Md Asiful; Alam, Nadia; Khalil, Md Ibrahim; Gan, Siew Hua

    2016-01-01

    Diabetes mellitus (DM) is one of the most common endocrine metabolic disorders. In addition to exercise and diet, oral anti-diabetic drugs have been used as a part of the management strategy worldwide. Unfortunately, none of the conventional anti-diabetic drugs are without side effects, and these drugs pose an economic burden. Therefore, the investigation of novel anti-diabetic regimens is a major challenge for researchers, in which nature has been the primary resource for the discovery of potential therapeutics. Many plants have been shown to act as anti-diabetic agents, in which the main active constituents are believed to be polyphenols. Natural products containing high polyphenol levels can control carbohydrate metabolism by various mechanisms, such as protecting and restoring beta-cell integrity, enhancing insulin releasing activity, and increasing cellular glucose uptake. Blackberries, red grapes, apricots, eggplant and popular drinks such as coffee, cocoa and green tea are all rich in polyphenols, which may dampen insulin resistance and be natural alternatives in the treatment of diabetes. Therefore, the aim of this review is to report on the available anti-diabetic polyphenols (medicinal plants, fruits and vegetables), their mechanisms in the various pathways of DM and their correlations with DM. Additionally, this review emphasizes the types of polyphenols that could be potential future resources in the treatment of DM via either novel regimens or as supplementary agents. PMID:26601968

  15. SIMULATION OF NET INFILTRATION FOR MODERN AND POTENTIAL FUTURE CLIMATES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J.A. Heveal

    2000-06-16

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) describes enhancements made to the infiltration model documented in Flint et al. (1996) and documents an analysis using the enhanced model to generate spatial and temporal distributions over a model domain encompassing the Yucca Mountain site, Nevada. Net infiltration is the component of infiltrated precipitation, snowmelt, or surface water run-on that has percolated below the zone of evapotranspiration as defined by the depth of the effective root zone, the average depth below the ground surface (at a given location) from which water is removed by evapotranspiration. The estimates of net infiltration are used for defining the upper boundary condition for the site-scale 3-dimensional Unsaturated-Zone Ground Water Flow and Transport (UZ flow and transport) Model (CRWMS M&O 2000a). The UZ flow and transport model is one of several process models abstracted by the Total System Performance Assessment model to evaluate expected performance of the potential repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, in terms of radionuclide transport (CRWMS M&O 1998). The net-infiltration model is important for assessing potential repository-system performance because output from this model provides the upper boundary condition for the UZ flow and transport model that is used to generate flow fields for evaluating potential radionuclide transport through the unsaturated zone. Estimates of net infiltration are provided as raster-based, 2-dimensional grids of spatially distributed, time-averaged rates for three different climate stages estimated as likely conditions for the next 10,000 years beyond the present. Each climate stage is represented using a lower bound, a mean, and an upper bound climate and corresponding net-infiltration scenario for representing uncertainty in the characterization of daily climate conditions for each climate stage, as well as potential climate variability within each climate stage. The set of nine raster grid maps provide spatially

  16. The Abiotic Depletion Potential: Background, Updates, and Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauran van Oers

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Depletion of abiotic resources is a much disputed impact category in life cycle assessment (LCA. The reason is that the problem can be defined in different ways. Furthermore, within a specified problem definition, many choices can still be made regarding which parameters to include in the characterization model and which data to use. This article gives an overview of the problem definition and the choices that have been made when defining the abiotic depletion potentials (ADPs for a characterization model for abiotic resource depletion in LCA. Updates of the ADPs since 2002 are also briefly discussed. Finally, some possible new developments of the impact category of abiotic resource depletion are suggested, such as redefining the depletion problem as a dilution problem. This means taking the reserves in the environment and the economy into account in the reserve parameter and using leakage from the economy, instead of extraction rate, as a dilution parameter.

  17. Remote Assessment of Lunar Resource Potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, G. Jeffrey

    1992-01-01

    Assessing the resource potential of the lunar surface requires a well-planned program to determine the chemical and mineralogical composition of the Moon's surface at a range of scales. The exploration program must include remote sensing measurements (from both Earth's surface and lunar orbit), robotic in situ analysis of specific places, and eventually, human field work by trained geologists. Remote sensing data is discussed. Resource assessment requires some idea of what resources will be needed. Studies thus far have concentrated on oxygen and hydrogen production for propellant and life support, He-3 for export as fuel for nuclear fusion reactors, and use of bulk regolith for shielding and construction materials. The measurement requirements for assessing these resources are given and discussed briefly.

  18. Imagining flood futures: risk assessment and management in practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Stuart N; Landström, Catharina; Whatmore, Sarah J

    2011-05-13

    The mantra that policy and management should be 'evidence-based' is well established. Less so are the implications that follow from 'evidence' being predictions of the future (forecasts, scenarios, horizons) even though such futures define the actions taken today to make the future sustainable. Here, we consider the tension between 'evidence', reliable because it is observed, and predictions of the future, unobservable in conventional terms. For flood risk management in England and Wales, we show that futures are actively constituted, and so imagined, through 'suites of practices' entwining policy, management and scientific analysis. Management has to constrain analysis because of the many ways in which flood futures can be constructed, but also because of commitment to an accounting calculus, which requires risk to be expressed in monetary terms. It is grounded in numerical simulation, undertaken by scientific consultants who follow policy/management guidelines that define the futures to be considered. Historical evidence is needed to deal with process and parameter uncertainties and the futures imagined are tied to pasts experienced. Reliance on past events is a challenge for prediction, given changing probability (e.g. climate change) and consequence (e.g. development on floodplains). So, risk management allows some elements of risk analysis to become unstable (notably in relation to climate change) but forces others to remain stable (e.g. invoking regulation to prevent inappropriate floodplain development). We conclude that the assumed separation of risk assessment and management is false because the risk calculation has to be defined by management. Making this process accountable requires openness about the procedures that make flood risk analysis more (or less) reliable to those we entrust to produce and act upon them such that, unlike the 'pseudosciences', they can be put to the test of public interrogation by those who have to live with their consequences

  19. Assessment of present and future large-scale semiconductor detector systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The performance of large-scale semiconductor detector systems is assessed with respect to their theoretical potential and to the practical limitations imposed by processing techniques, readout electronics and radiation damage. In addition to devices which detect reaction products directly, the analysis includes photodetectors for scintillator arrays. Beyond present technology we also examine currently evolving structures and techniques which show potential for producing practical devices in the foreseeable future

  20. Future of computing technology in physics - the potentials and pitfalls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The impact of the developments of modern digital computers is discussed, especially with respect to physics research in the future. The effects of large data processing capability and increasing rates at which data can be acquired and processed are considered

  1. Assessing the proarrhythmic potential of drugs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Morten Bækgaard; Matz, Jørgen; Volders, Paul G A;

    2006-01-01

    Torsades de pointes (TdP) is a potentially lethal cardiac arrhythmia that can occur as an unwanted adverse effect of various pharmacological therapies. Before a drug is approved for marketing, its effects on cardiac repolarisation are examined clinically and experimentally. This paper expresses...... the opinion that effects on repolarisation duration cannot directly be translated to risk of proarrhythmia. Current safety assessments of drugs only involve repolarisation assays, however the proarrhythmic profile can only be determined in the predisposed model. The availability of these proarrhythmic animal...... surrogate parameters possessing predictive power of TdP arrhythmia are reviewed. As these parameters are not developed to finalisation, any meaningful study of the proarrhythmic potential of a new drug will include evaluation in an integrated model of TdP arrhythmia....

  2. Assessing anhedonia in depression: Potentials and pitfalls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizvi, Sakina J; Pizzagalli, Diego A; Sproule, Beth A; Kennedy, Sidney H

    2016-06-01

    The resurgence of interest in anhedonia within major depression has been fuelled by clinical trials demonstrating its utility in predicting antidepressant response as well as recent conceptualizations focused on the role and manifestation of anhedonia in depression. Historically, anhedonia has been understood as a "loss of pleasure", yet neuropsychological and neurobiological studies reveal a multifaceted reconceptualization that emphasizes different facets of hedonic function, including desire, effort/motivation, anticipation and consummatory pleasure. To ensure generalizability across studies, evaluation of the available subjective and objective methods to assess anhedonia is necessary. The majority of research regarding anhedonia and its neurobiological underpinnings comes from preclinical research, which uses primary reward (e.g. food) to probe hedonic responding. In contrast, behavioural studies in humans primarily use secondary reward (e.g. money) to measure many aspects of reward responding, including delay discounting, response bias, prediction error, probabilistic reversal learning, effort, anticipation and consummatory pleasure. The development of subjective scales to measure anhedonia has also increased in the last decade. This review will assess the current methodology to measure anhedonia, with a focus on scales and behavioural tasks in humans. Limitations of current work and recommendations for future studies are discussed. PMID:26959336

  3. Communicating uncertainties in assessments of future sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wikman-Svahn, P.

    2013-12-01

    How uncertainty should be managed and communicated in policy-relevant scientific assessments is directly connected to the role of science and the responsibility of scientists. These fundamentally philosophical issues influence how scientific assessments are made and how scientific findings are communicated to policymakers. It is therefore of high importance to discuss implicit assumptions and value judgments that are made in policy-relevant scientific assessments. The present paper examines these issues for the case of scientific assessments of future sea level rise. The magnitude of future sea level rise is very uncertain, mainly due to poor scientific understanding of all physical mechanisms affecting the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, which together hold enough land-based ice to raise sea levels more than 60 meters if completely melted. There has been much confusion from policymakers on how different assessments of future sea levels should be interpreted. Much of this confusion is probably due to how uncertainties are characterized and communicated in these assessments. The present paper draws on the recent philosophical debate on the so-called "value-free ideal of science" - the view that science should not be based on social and ethical values. Issues related to how uncertainty is handled in scientific assessments are central to this debate. This literature has much focused on how uncertainty in data, parameters or models implies that choices have to be made, which can have social consequences. However, less emphasis has been on how uncertainty is characterized when communicating the findings of a study, which is the focus of the present paper. The paper argues that there is a tension between on the one hand the value-free ideal of science and on the other hand usefulness for practical applications in society. This means that even if the value-free ideal could be upheld in theory, by carefully constructing and hedging statements characterizing

  4. Assessing future changes in pan-European environmental flows

    OpenAIRE

    Laize, Cedric L.R.; Acreman, M.; Dunbar, M.; Houghton-Carr, H.; Florke, M.; Schneider, C; Hannah, D. M.

    2011-01-01

    The potential river flow-driven impact of change on aquatic and riparian ecosystems at the pan-European scale under various climatological and development scenarios was assessed using a methodology based conceptually on the Range of Variability Approach (RVA) using the Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA): a desk-top technique for assessing if environmental flow requirements. This paper presents an adaptation of the IHA approach using monthly flows. European and Mediterranean river net...

  5. Environmental assessment of current and future Swiss electricity supply options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Options for near future electricity supply are currently one of the main topics in the Swiss energy policy debate. Contrary to the total energy demand per capita the trend of rising electricity demand per capita is still visible. This paper presents a comparative environmental assessment of a broad portfolio of current and future electricity generation technologies including nuclear, fossil, and renewable power plants with their associated energy chains. The evaluation, based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), is carried out quantifying ten different environmental indicators, grouped in the categories greenhouse gas emissions, consumption of resources, waste, and impact on ecosystems. Hydropower shows minimal environmental impacts for all indicators; for other systems, the picture is diverse. The comparison of non-aggregated indicators allows preliminary conclusions about the environmental performance of the assessed systems. Establishing ranking of technologies calls for aggregating the indicators, which can be done by weighting of the indicators based on individual or stakeholder group preferences, either within a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework or with Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methods. Calculating total costs of electricity by adding external costs due to impacts on human health and ecosystems to the electricity production costs poses another option for ranking of technologies. (authors)

  6. Futurism: Its Potential and Actual Role in Master of Business Administration (MBA) Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Robin T.

    2006-01-01

    In this article, the author highlights the potential role of "futurism" in master of business administration (MBA) curricula and the conceivable offerings of futurism to business planners. This article serves as a corollary to educators in MBA business education and concerns to the nature of futurism, the benefits of futurism to managerial…

  7. THE ASSESSMENT OF CYBERBULLYING: THE PRESENT SITUATION AND FUTURE CHALLENGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Lucas-Molina

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the last decade there has been a significant increase in the interest of the educational and scientific community on cyberbullying, a new form of peer abuse and intimidation. Despite the widespread proliferation of studies and assessment tools on the phenomenon, there are still major conceptual and methodological gaps. This paper offers a comprehensive and updated review of the results of research on the definition of the construct, its prevalence and its impact on the people involved. Finally, it focuses specifically on the assessment of the construct and provides a brief review of the general and psychometric characteristics of the instruments used in some of the most relevant national and international studies conducted on the subject. This work places special emphasis on the present and future challenges and concludes with a number of general recommendations intended to guide the correct selection and/or construction of assessment instruments in this field of study.

  8. Future of computing technology in physics - the potentials and pitfalls

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brenner, A.E.

    1984-02-01

    The impact of the developments of modern digital computers is discussed, especially with respect to physics research in the future. The effects of large data processing capability and increasing rates at which data can be acquired and processed are considered. (GHT)

  9. Modeling future scenarios of light attenuation and potential seagrass success in a eutrophic estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Barrio, Pilar; Ganju, Neil K.; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L.; Hayn, Melanie; García, Andrés; Howarth, Robert W.

    2014-01-01

    Estuarine eutrophication has led to numerous ecological changes, including loss of seagrass beds. One potential cause of these losses is a reduction in light availability due to increased attenuation by phytoplankton. Future sea level rise will also tend to reduce light penetration and modify seagrass habitat. In the present study, we integrate a spectral irradiance model into a biogeochemical model coupled to the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS). It is linked to a bio-optical seagrass model to assess potential seagrass habitat in a eutrophic estuary under future nitrate loading and sea-level rise scenarios. The model was applied to West Falmouth Harbor, a shallow estuary located on Cape Cod (Massachusetts) where nitrate from groundwater has led to eutrophication and seagrass loss in landward portions of the estuary. Measurements of chlorophyll, turbidity, light attenuation, and seagrass coverage were used to assess the model accuracy. Mean chlorophyll based on uncalibrated in-situ fluorometry varied from 28 μg L−1 at the landward-most site to 6.5 μg L−1 at the seaward site, while light attenuation ranged from 0.86 to 0.45 m-1. The model reproduced the spatial variability in chlorophyll and light attenuation with RMS errors of 3.72 μg L−1 and 0.07 m-1 respectively. Scenarios of future nitrate reduction and sea-level rise suggest an improvement in light climate in the landward basin with a 75% reduction in nitrate loading. This coupled model may be useful to assess habitat availability changes due to eutrophication and sediment resuspension and fully considers spatial variability on the tidal timescale.

  10. Future technology in cochlear implants: assessing the benefit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, Robert J S

    2011-05-01

    ); automated fitting; and reduction in outcome variability. This paper provides examples of relevant potential future technologies that can be applied to reach these goals. In the quest for better outcomes, future technology must deliver improved reliability and usability for both clinicians and recipients that does not compromise safety and is affordable. One of the challenges related to the introduction of new technologies is the 'classification' of CI systems and the framework under which sufficient change and increased benefit can be demonstrated to establish a claim of 'new generation CI' and hence increased reimbursement from third-party payers. Significant improvements in hearing outcomes and quality of life associated with CI design changes are difficult to measure, particularly when there is such dramatic benefit from the intervention of cochlear implantation from the individual's perspective. Manufacturers and clinicians need to be objective and undertake appropriate safety studies and long-term and multi-centre clinical trials to ensure that the introduction of new technology is both safe and effective and supported by health systems worldwide. PMID:21756467

  11. mHealth in Chronic Pain Assessment: Present and Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pliakos, Ioannis; Kefaliakos, Antonios; Diomidous, Marianna

    2016-01-01

    Chronic Pain (CP) is a condition which is difficult to assess. Existing methods are based on self-management treatments and leaving the big part of the assessment on the patient. According on this method, mHealth applications offer tools to CP patients to self-manage their condition and improve it. All the applications are limited by the type of data they collect and the data based on self-reporting. In the future the applications for CP management will not be based only on this type of data. Multiple types of data will be gathered and analyzed, as well as the specialists will be able to have a better prospective for the patients' pain levels. PMID:27350520

  12. mHealth in Chronic Pain Assessment: Present and Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pliakos, Ioannis; Kefaliakos, Antonios; Diomidous, Marianna

    2016-01-01

    Chronic Pain (CP) is a condition which is difficult to assess. Existing methods are based on self-management treatments and leaving the big part of the assessment on the patient. According on this method, mHealth applications offer tools to CP patients to self-manage their condition and improve it. All the applications are limited by the type of data they collect and the data based on self-reporting. In the future the applications for CP management will not be based only on this type of data. Multiple types of data will be gathered and analyzed, as well as the specialists will be able to have a better prospective for the patients' pain levels.

  13. High efficiency USC power plant - present status and future potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blum, R. [Faelleskemikerne I/S Fynsvaerket (Denmark); Hald, J. [Elsam/Elkraft/TU Denmark (Denmark)

    1998-12-31

    Increasing demand for energy production with low impact on the environment and minimised fuel consumption can be met with high efficient coal fired power plants with advanced steam parameters. An important key to this improvement is the development of high temperature materials with optimised mechanical strength. Based on the results of more than ten years of development a coal fired power plant with an efficiency above 50 % can now be realised. Future developments focus on materials which enable an efficiency of 52-55 %. (orig.) 25 refs.

  14. Future changes in climatic water balance determine potential for transformational shifts in Australian fire regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boer, Matthias M.; Bowman, David M. J. S.; Murphy, Brett P.; Cary, Geoffrey J.; Cochrane, Mark A.; Fensham, Roderick J.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Price, Owen F.; Resco De Dios, Víctor; Williams, Richard J.; Bradstock, Ross A.

    2016-06-01

    Most studies of climate change effects on fire regimes assume a gradual reorganization of pyrogeographic patterns and have not considered the potential for transformational changes in the climate-vegetation-fire relationships underlying continental-scale fire regimes. Here, we model current fire activity levels in Australia as a function of mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) and potential evapotranspiration (E 0), as proxies for fuel productivity and fuel drying potential. We distinguish two domains in E,{E}0 space according to the dominant constraint on fire activity being either fuel productivity (PL-type fire) or fuel dryness (DL-type fire) and show that the affinity to these domains is related to fuel type. We propose to assess the potential for transformational shifts in fire type from the difference in the affinity to either domain under a baseline climate and projected future climate. Under the projected climate changes potential for a transformational shift from DL- to PL-type fire was predicted for mesic savanna woodland in the north and for eucalypt forests in coastal areas of the south-west and along the Continental Divide in the south-east of the continent. Potential for a shift from PL- to DL-type fire was predicted for a narrow zone of eucalypt savanna woodland in the north-east.

  15. GIS based analysis of future district heating potential in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steffen; Möller, Bernd

    2013-01-01

    in Denmark have been mapped in a heat atlas which includes all buildings and their heat demands. This article focuses on developing a method for assessing the costs associated with supplying these buildings with DH. The analysis is based on the existing DH areas in Denmark. By finding the heat production...

  16. Community-based assessment and planning of energy futures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carnes, S.A.

    1981-01-01

    The Decentralized Solar Energy Technology Assessment Program (DSETAP) is discussed. In this program four communities were involved in an assessment of the compatibility of diverse conservation and renewable energy-supply technologies and community values and goals and in community planning for the implementation of compatible energy demand and supply alternatives. The approach taken by these communities has several basic components, including: (1) recruiting and organizing for the assessment planning process; (2) collection and analysis of data related to community energy use and indigenous renewable-energy resources; (3) creation and maintenance of a community education and information program; (4) development of policies favorable to the development of preferred community futures; and (5) development of implementation or action strategies. How these components were carried out by the four communities in the DSETAP is reviewed. Particular attention is paid to a number of important issues which were raised during the course of the DSETAP, including the role of public participation, group decision-making techniques, the role of technical information in citizen and group decision-making, and linkages between assessment planning and the relevant policy process.

  17. A Global Assessment of Fast Reactors in the Future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Various criteria will be presented and used for assessing the future of sodium cooled fast reactors (SFRs) on a worldwide basis, including sustainability, economics, contribution to maintaining nuclear R&D excellence, long term acceptability of nuclear energy, leading position in nuclear energy industry for countries developing SFRs and diversification of the risks and insurance. One of the main concerns is public acceptance, which may vary over time for a number of reasons. If it is assumed that safety and non-proliferation concerns will be dealt with effectively, acceptance will most probably be obtained and the question will not be whether to launch SFRs on an industrial scale, but when and where. An assessment of the market will also be provided in this paper. The world market for industrial Gen IV SFRs is expected to be between 0 and 2 units (1500 MW(e)) per year based on an optimistic approach, before economic competitiveness is reached, and 10–15 later. Though there are large uncertainties on the exact period at which economic competitiveness will be reached, it is most probably likely to occur sometime during the second half of the century. In the future, the advantages of SFRs will likely grow significantly faster than any disadvantages. (author)

  18. Assessing Future Ecosystem Services: a Case Study of the Northern Highlands Lake District, Wisconsin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Lisa Dent

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available The Northern Highlands Lake District of Wisconsin is in transition from a sparsely settled region to a more densely populated one. Expected changes offer benefits to northern Wisconsin residents but also threaten to degrade the ecological services they rely on. Because the future of this region is uncertain, it is difficult to make decisions that will avoid potential risks and take advantage of potential opportunities. We adopt a scenario planning approach to cope with this problem of prediction. We use an ecological assessment framework developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment to determine key social and ecological driving forces in the Northern Highlands Lake District. From these, we describe three alternative scenarios to the year 2025 in which the projected use of ecological services is substantially different. The work reported in this paper demonstrates how scenarios can be developed for a region and provides a starting point for a participatory discussion of alternative futures for northern Wisconsin. Although the future is unknowable, we hope that the assessment process begun in this paper will help the people of the Northern Highlands Lake District choose the future path of their region.

  19. Biofuel initiatives in Japan: Strategies, policies, and future potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Japan has developed a variety of national strategies and plans related to biofuels which address four main policy objectives, including reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, energy security, rural development, and realisation of a recycle-based society. This paper reviews these national strategies and plans as well as associated implementing policies, and discusses the extent to which these objectives may be achieved. This paper found that the long-term potential of biofuels to contribute to GHG reduction goals will depend not only on the rates of technological development of the second generation biofuels but also on the development of other advanced vehicles. In the medium term, the potential contribution of biofuels to rural development and realising a recycle-based society could become significant depending on the progress of technology for both second generation biofuel production and the collection and transportation of their feedstocks. The potential contribution of biofuels to Japan's energy security is constrained by the availability of imports and the potential of domestic production.

  20. Assessment of Future Skills Requirements in the Hospitality Sector in Ireland, 2015-2020

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    The hospitality sector is one of the most important employment services sectors in the Irish economy, and there is significant potential for future expansion. The objective of this study is to assess the skills demand needs arising within the Hospitality sector in Ireland – hotels, restaurants, bars, canteens and catering – over the period to 2020. The aim is to ensure that there will be the right supply of skills to help drive domestic hospitality sector business and employment growth.

  1. Assessment of potential adjuvanticity of Cry proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Saurabh S; Barnett, Brian; Doerrer, Nancy G; Glenn, Kevin; Herman, Rod A; Herouet-Guicheney, Corinne; Hunst, Penny; Kough, John; Ladics, Gregory S; McClain, Scott; Papineni, Sabitha; Poulsen, Lars K; Rascle, Jean-Baptiste; Tao, Ai-Lin; van Ree, Ronald; Ward, Jason; Bowman, Christal C

    2016-08-01

    Genetically modified (GM) crops have achieved success in the marketplace and their benefits extend beyond the overall increase in harvest yields to include lowered use of insecticides and decreased carbon dioxide emissions. The most widely grown GM crops contain gene/s for targeted insect protection, herbicide tolerance, or both. Plant expression of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) crystal (Cry) insecticidal proteins have been the primary way to impart insect resistance in GM crops. Although deemed safe by regulatory agencies globally, previous studies have been the basis for discussions around the potential immuno-adjuvant effects of Cry proteins. These studies had limitations in study design. The studies used animal models with extremely high doses of Cry proteins, which when given using the ig route were co-administered with an adjuvant. Although the presumption exists that Cry proteins may have immunostimulatory activity and therefore an adjuvanticity risk, the evidence shows that Cry proteins are expressed at very low levels in GM crops and are unlikely to function as adjuvants. This conclusion is based on critical review of the published literature on the effects of immunomodulation by Cry proteins, the history of safe use of Cry proteins in foods, safety of the Bt donor organisms, and pre-market weight-of-evidence-based safety assessments for GM crops. PMID:27105772

  2. Assessment of potential adjuvanticity of Cry proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Saurabh S; Barnett, Brian; Doerrer, Nancy G; Glenn, Kevin; Herman, Rod A; Herouet-Guicheney, Corinne; Hunst, Penny; Kough, John; Ladics, Gregory S; McClain, Scott; Papineni, Sabitha; Poulsen, Lars K; Rascle, Jean-Baptiste; Tao, Ai-Lin; van Ree, Ronald; Ward, Jason; Bowman, Christal C

    2016-08-01

    Genetically modified (GM) crops have achieved success in the marketplace and their benefits extend beyond the overall increase in harvest yields to include lowered use of insecticides and decreased carbon dioxide emissions. The most widely grown GM crops contain gene/s for targeted insect protection, herbicide tolerance, or both. Plant expression of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) crystal (Cry) insecticidal proteins have been the primary way to impart insect resistance in GM crops. Although deemed safe by regulatory agencies globally, previous studies have been the basis for discussions around the potential immuno-adjuvant effects of Cry proteins. These studies had limitations in study design. The studies used animal models with extremely high doses of Cry proteins, which when given using the ig route were co-administered with an adjuvant. Although the presumption exists that Cry proteins may have immunostimulatory activity and therefore an adjuvanticity risk, the evidence shows that Cry proteins are expressed at very low levels in GM crops and are unlikely to function as adjuvants. This conclusion is based on critical review of the published literature on the effects of immunomodulation by Cry proteins, the history of safe use of Cry proteins in foods, safety of the Bt donor organisms, and pre-market weight-of-evidence-based safety assessments for GM crops.

  3. Dendroclimatology in Fennoscandia – from past accomplishments to future potentials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Stridbeck

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Dendroclimatology, i.e. using tree-ring data to reconstruct past climates, in Fennoscandia has a strong tradition. Due to the high-latitude location of the region, trees are sensitive to climate; in general to temperatures during summer. However, a strong gradient from the oceanic west to the continental east, makes it possible to find trees that respond to other parameters, such as precipitation and drought. Situated in a sparsely populated part of the Boreal belt, Fennoscandia with its large areas of old-growth forests is suitable for constructing tree-ring chronologies reaching far back in time. Indeed, some of the world longest tree-ring chronologies are found in the region, covering all, or most of, the Holocene. In addition to providing valuable information about regional climate variability during the Holocene, tree-ring data have played significant roles in recent reconstructions of hemispheric and global temperatures as well as large-scale circulation patterns. Here we review the field of dendroclimatology in Fennoscandia, showing the wealth of climate information obtained from various tree-ring parameters (ring widths, density and stable isotopes, and look in to future possibilities.

  4. THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF TEHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT ON FUTURE JOBS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ŞTEFAN COSMIN-ALEXANDRU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Technological developments in the last decades have reached unbelievable levels, what was once the domain of science fiction movies is now a reality, and this developments have left few areas of human life unchanged. In this paper we aim to explore the changes that technology brought to the way people work and, especially to the way people will work. While we acknowledge that any prediction about the future is almost always proved wrong from the get go, we think that the importance of the subject warrants the risk. The paper draws its routes from some of the most influential theories about how technology will impact the way people work and is main objective is to spark a conversation about the merits of lack thereof that they contain. It is by no means an extensive work, but rather the beginning of a research focus that will, hopefully bring new insights in the above mentioned field. For the sake of convenience we have grouped the predictions in three categories: “Business as usual”, “Lateral developments” and “All bets are off” based on how profound the change would be. Each of this levels offers different benefits, as well as different challenges, our hope is that throw a process of thorough consideration solutions can be generated to maximize the former while minimizing the latter.

  5. Wind diesel systems - design assessment and future potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Infield, D.G.; Scotney, A.; Lundsager, P.;

    1992-01-01

    Diesels are the obvious form. of back-up electricity generation in small to medium sized wind systems. High wind penetrations pose significant technical problems for the system designer, ranging from component sizing to control specification and dynamic stability. A key role is seen for proven sy...... countries. Support for this work is being provided by the CEC's JOULE programme. Experience gained from a wide range of designs is drawn on to illustrate the problems and point to more attractive solutions....

  6. Current and future biosimilars: potential practical applications in rheumatology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noaiseh G

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Ghaith Noaiseh, Larry Moreland Division of Rheumatology and Clinical Immunology, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, PA, USA Abstract: The use of biologics in the field of rheumatology has dramatically changed the way we treat rheumatic diseases. As the patent-expiration dates for many tumor necrosis-factor inhibitors and other biological agents are approaching, many large pharmaceutical companies are developing and testing their own versions of these agents; this is due to the biologics' huge revenue potential. The potential cost saving is a major incentive for their development. Producing a biosimilar is not an easy task, as minor changes in the production process can have profound immunological and clinical consequences. The European Medicines Agency (EMA has led the efforts in issuing guidelines to streamline the approval process for applicants interested in developing biosimilars. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA has followed the EMA track and has guidelines in place, but the process varies in different countries. The approval process is far more complex than the one used for the approval of small-molecule generic products. Biosimilars should be developed according to the strict rules set forth by the EMA and FDA; other intended copies are available for clinical use in different parts of the world, but should not be considered biosimilars, as they do not fulfill the stringent definition criteria. Biosimilars will soon be in the market, and their use in rheumatic diseases will likely change our treatment approach. Rheumatologists and other health-care professionals will soon be faced with many questions and will have to be familiarized with the concept and the points of debate. Keywords: biosimilar, rheumatology, biologic, generic, TNF inhibitor, rituximab

  7. Assessment of wind energy potential in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starosta, Katarzyna; Linkowska, Joanna; Mazur, Andrzej

    2014-05-01

    The aim of the presentation is to show the suitability of using numerical model wind speed forecasts for the wind power industry applications in Poland. In accordance with the guidelines of the European Union, the consumption of wind energy in Poland is rapidly increasing. According to the report of Energy Regulatory Office from 30 March 2013, the installed capacity of wind power in Poland was 2807MW from 765 wind power stations. Wind energy is strongly dependent on the meteorological conditions. Based on the climatological wind speed data, potential energy zones within the area of Poland have been developed (H. Lorenc). They are the first criterion for assessing the location of the wind farm. However, for exact monitoring of a given wind farm location the prognostic data from numerical model forecasts are necessary. For the practical interpretation and further post-processing, the verification of the model data is very important. Polish Institute Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute (IMWM-NRI) runs an operational model COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modelling, version 4.8) using two nested domains at horizontal resolutions of 7 km and 2.8 km. The model produces 36 hour and 78 hour forecasts from 00 UTC, for 2.8 km and 7 km domain resolutions respectively. Numerical forecasts were compared with the observation of 60 SYNOP and 3 TEMP stations in Poland, using VERSUS2 (Unified System Verification Survey 2) and R package. For every zone the set of statistical indices (ME, MAE, RMSE) was calculated. Forecast errors for aerological profiles are shown for Polish TEMP stations at Wrocław, Legionowo and Łeba. The current studies are connected with a topic of the COST ES1002 WIRE-Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies.

  8. Assessing the therapeutic potential of lab-made hepatocytes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezvani, Milad; Grimm, Andrew A; Willenbring, Holger

    2016-07-01

    Hepatocyte transplantation has potential as a bridge or even alternative to whole-organ liver transplantation. Because donor livers are scarce, realizing this potential requires the development of alternative cell sources. To be therapeutically effective, surrogate hepatocytes must replicate the complex function and ability to proliferate of primary human hepatocytes. Ideally, they are also autologous to eliminate the need for immune suppression, which can have severe side effects and may not be sufficient to prevent rejection long term. In the past decade, several methods have been developed to generate hepatocytes from other readily and safely accessible somatic cells. These lab-made hepatocytes show promise in animal models of liver diseases, supporting the feasibility of autologous liver cell therapies. Here, we review recent preclinical studies exemplifying different types of lab-made hepatocytes that can potentially be used in autologous liver cell therapies. To define the therapeutic efficacy of current lab-made hepatocytes, we compare them to primary human hepatocytes, focusing on engraftment efficiency and posttransplant proliferation and function. In addition to summarizing published results, we discuss animal models and assays effective in assessing therapeutic efficacy. This analysis underscores the therapeutic potential of current lab-made hepatocytes, but also highlights deficiencies and uncertainties that need to be addressed in future studies aimed at developing liver cell therapies with lab-made hepatocytes. (Hepatology 2016;64:287-294). PMID:27014802

  9. Elements of a regulatory strategy for the consideration of future human actions in safety assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Wickham, S.M.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

    1999-09-01

    The objective of this report is to discuss issues that should be considered in the development of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in any forthcoming license application for a deep repository for spent fuel in Sweden and for sites of other repositories. The report comprises an outline of key issues concerning the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, reviews of regulatory developments, recent safety assessments and supporting studies, and international initiatives on the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, and the principal elements of a regulatory strategy. Performance assessments (PAs) are generally accepted as providing illustrations of system performance under given sets of assumptions. The results of PAs are clearer and easier tounderstand if certain large uncertainties are accounted for by determining performance under several different sets of assumptions or scenarios, each of which defines a possible evolution of the disposal system. A number of assumptions can be made that would restrict the scope of an assessment without reducing the credibility of the corresponding safety case. Reducing speculation about technological development, by assuming that the techniques used in future human activities are similar to those currently in use in the region or at similar sites, will simplify the assessment. A distinction is generally made between inadvertent and intentional intrusion, with intentional activities excluded because society cannot protect future populations from their own actions if they understand the potential consequences. A division of human activities into 'recent and ongoing' and 'future' activities considers not only the timing of the activities but also the degree of control or influence that can be imposed on them. Recent and ongoing human activities are those that affect an area beyond the immediate vicinity of the disposal facility and which neither the proponent

  10. Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosa Björk Thorolfsdottir

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25-74. Calculations were based on combining: i data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland, ii population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study, and iii effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses. Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: (1 If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. (2 If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3 Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040. CONCLUSIONS: The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future.

  11. Traumatic brain injury: future assessment tools and treatment prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven R Flanagan

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Steven R Flanagan1, Joshua B Cantor2, Teresa A Ashman21New York University School of Medicine, The Rusk Institute of Rehabilitation, New York, NY, USA; 2Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, NY, USAAbstract: Traumatic brain injury (TBI is widespread and leads to death and disability in millions of individuals around the world each year. Overall incidence and prevalence of TBI are likely to increase in absolute terms in the future. Tackling the problem of treating TBI successfully will require improvements in the understanding of normal cerebral anatomy, physiology, and function throughout the lifespan, as well as the pathological and recuperative responses that result from trauma. New treatment approaches and combinations will need to be targeted to the heterogeneous needs of TBI populations. This article explores and evaluates the research evidence in areas that will likely lead to a reduction in TBI-related morbidity and improved outcomes. These include emerging assessment instruments and techniques in areas of structural/chemical and functional neuroimaging and neuropsychology, advances in the realms of cell-based therapies and genetics, promising cognitive rehabilitation techniques including cognitive remediation and the use of electronic technologies including assistive devices and virtual reality, and the emerging field of complementary and alternative medicine.Keywords: traumatic brain injury, assessments, treatments

  12. Alternative future scenarios for the SPS comparative assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayres, R.U.; Ridker, R.G.; Watson, W.D. Jr.; Arnold, J.; Tayi, G.

    1980-08-01

    The objective of the comparative assessment is to develop an initial understanding of the SPS with respect to a limited set of energy alternatives. A comparative methodology report describes the multi-step process in the comparative assessment. The first step is the selection and characterization of alternative energy systems. Terrestrial alternatives are selected, and their cost, performance, and environmental and social attributes are specified for use in the comparison with the SPS in the post-2000 era. Data on alternative technologies were sought from previous research and from other comparisons. The object of this study is to provide a futures framework for evaluating SPS (i.e., factor prices, primary energy prices, and energy demands for the US from 1980 to 2030). The economic/energy interactions are discussed, and a number of specific modelling schemes that have been used for long-range forecasting purposes are described. This discussion provides the rationale for the choice of a specific model and methodology, which is described. Long-range cost assumptions used in the forecast are detailed, and the basis for the selection of specific scenarios follows. Results of the analysis are detailed. (WHK)

  13. The Self Assessment of Future Events Scale (SAFE): assessing perceptions of risk for future violence in intimate partner relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Douglas B; Whiting, Jason B; Karakurt, Gunnur; Oka, Megan; Servino, David

    2013-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a survey measure, appropriate for use in clinical or research settings, to assess respondent's perceptions that their partner will engage in future physical violence, verbal/psychological violence, or controlling behaviors. Data were collected from adults in intimate relationships. Exploratory factor analysis was used to refine the measure and confirmatory factor analysis provided evidence for the fit of the final version of the measure. Scores on the measure indicated less safety for participants in distressed relationships and for participants meeting the study criteria for PTSD. Scores on the measure also indicated significantly decreased safety for participants that reported being the victims of physical violence and participants reporting both victimization and perpetration in their current intimate relationships. PMID:25059299

  14. Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D. Levitt

    2004-11-09

    The purpose of this model report is to document the infiltration model used to estimate upper-bound, mean, and lower-bound spatially-distributed average annual net infiltration rates for present-day and potential future climates at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Net infiltration is the component of infiltrated precipitation, snowmelt, or surface water run-on that has percolated below the zone of evapotranspiration as defined by the depth of the effective root zone. The estimates of net infiltration are primarily used for defining the upper boundary condition for the site-scale three-dimensional unsaturated zone (UZ) model. The UZ flow model is one of several process models abstracted by the total system performance assessment (TSPA) model used to evaluate performance of the repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The net-infiltration model is important for assessing repository-system performance because output from this model provides the upper boundary condition for the UZ flow model used to generate flow fields; water percolating downward from the UZ will be the principal means by which radionuclides are potentially released to the saturated zone (SZ). The SZ is the principal pathway to the biosphere where the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) is exposed to radionuclides.

  15. Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this model report is to document the infiltration model used to estimate upper-bound, mean, and lower-bound spatially-distributed average annual net infiltration rates for present-day and potential future climates at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Net infiltration is the component of infiltrated precipitation, snowmelt, or surface water run-on that has percolated below the zone of evapotranspiration as defined by the depth of the effective root zone. The estimates of net infiltration are primarily used for defining the upper boundary condition for the site-scale three-dimensional unsaturated zone (UZ) model. The UZ flow model is one of several process models abstracted by the total system performance assessment (TSPA) model used to evaluate performance of the repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The net-infiltration model is important for assessing repository-system performance because output from this model provides the upper boundary condition for the UZ flow model used to generate flow fields; water percolating downward from the UZ will be the principal means by which radionuclides are potentially released to the saturated zone (SZ). The SZ is the principal pathway to the biosphere where the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) is exposed to radionuclides

  16. Impact assessment for a sustainable energy future-Reflections and practical experiences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As energy issues are at the top of the policy agenda worldwide, policy-makers increasingly need better decision-supporting processes to assist them in fostering a sustainable energy future. This paper reflects on the interpretation of sustainable development, and links these reflections with the theory and practice of impact assessment applied on energy issues. An analysis of existing impact assessment approaches with regard to their contribution to sustainable development leads to a set of principles for 'sustainability assessment'. Through a study of a participatory impact assessment supporting the development of a radioactive waste management plan in Belgium, the interpretational limits of sustainable development in a nuclear energy context are discussed. This paper sheds light on the complex context in which impact assessment exercises must contribute to sustainable energy development, with a focus on the nuclear energy-(un)sustainability nexus. - Highlights: →We explore the potential of sustainable development as a decision-guiding strategy for energy policy. → We analyze the role of impact assessment approaches in supporting energy policy decision-making. → A sustainability assessment framework is proposed and applied on a nuclear waste management case. → Sustainability assessments allow us to explore the interpretational limits of sustainability. → The broader context of any sustainability assessment should be acknowledged transparently.

  17. Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Retèl Valesca P

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. Methods To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005 until the future (2020. Results In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY, meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. Conclusions When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process

  18. Risk assessment of the impact of future volcanic eruptions on direct normal irradiance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagh Nielsen, Kristian; Blanc, Philippe; Vignola, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Stratospheric sulfate aerosols from Plinian volcanic eruptions affect the solar surface irradiance forcing by scattering the solar radiation as it passes through the Earth atmosphere. Since these aerosols have high single scattering albedos they mostly affect direct normal irradiances (DNI). The effect on global horizontal irradiance (GHI) is less because some of the scattered irradiance reaches the surface as diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) and adds to the GHI. DNI is the essential input to concentrating solar thermal electric power (CSP/STE) and concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) plants. Therefore, an assessment of the future potential variability in the DNI resource caused by Plinian volcanic eruptions is desirable. Based on investigations of the El Chichón and Pinatubo eruptions, the microphysical, and thereby optical, properties of the stratospheric sulfate aerosols are well known. Given these, radiative transfer computations of the DNI resource can be made. The DNI resource includes forward scattered irradiance within the acceptance angle of a given CSP/STE or CPV plant. The rarity of Plinian eruptions poses a challenge for assessing the statistical risk of future eruptions and its potential of risk in the electricity production. Here we present and discuss methods to account for these potential volcanic eruptions for technical and economical studies including scenarios with very high probability of exceedance (e.g. P99 scenarios) for risk assessment of DNI-based solar power projects.

  19. Future transportation: Lifetime considerations and framework for sustainability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Modern society cannot exist without mobility. It is now essential to maintain access to everyday necessities, as well as being a vital part of most economies. However, our current transportation system is placing unsustainable demands on finite resources of fossil fuels, minerals and materials; change is therefore essential. Identifying rational choices is difficult because a future transport option must not only abate these demands over the entire lifetime, but do so at an affordable cost whilst maintaining acceptable levels of utility. This paper offers a framework to evaluate powertrains for whole life criteria, in order to help validate current and future developments. It supports integrated comparisons of both fuel and vehicle technology combinations for cost, energy and greenhouse gas emissions throughout a vehicles lifetime. Case studies illustrate the use of this framework. All powertrains were found to require considerable amounts of energy and emit some emissions over their whole lifetime. Significant benefits over incumbent vehicles were found to be potentially attainable through the use of alternative powertrains. However, the majority of these benefits were currently found to increase user costs, worsen the vehicle production impacts and be heavily reliant on the source of the vehicles in-use energy. - Highlight: ► Cost, energy and GHG emissions throughout a vehicle’s lifetime are evaluated. ► This paper offers a structure to evaluate powertrains for whole life criteria. ► Substantial amounts of energy and emissions were evident for all options. ► Significant environmental benefits over incumbent vehicles were found. ► In-use benefits were shown to shift impacts to other phases of a vehicle’s lifetime.

  20. Assessment of potential aquatic herbicide impacts to California aquatic ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siemering, Geoffrey S; Hayworth, Jennifer D; Greenfield, Ben K

    2008-10-01

    A series of legal decisions culminated in 2002 with the California State Water Resources Control Board funding the San Francisco Estuary Institute to develop and implement a 3-year monitoring program to determine the potential environmental impacts of aquatic herbicide applications. The monitoring program was intended to investigate the behavior of all aquatic pesticides in use in California, to determine potential impacts in a wide range of water-body types receiving applications, and to help regulators determine where to direct future resources. A tiered monitoring approach was developed to achieve a balance between program goals and what was practically achievable within the project time and budget constraints. Water, sediment, and biota were collected under "worst-case" scenarios in close association with herbicide applications. Applications of acrolein, copper sulfate, chelated copper, diquat dibromide, glyphosate, fluridone, triclopyr, and 2,4-D were monitored. A range of chemical analyses, toxicity tests, and bioassessments were conducted. At each site, risk quotients were calculated to determine potential impacts. For sediment-partitioning herbicides, sediment quality triad analysis was performed. Worst-case scenario monitoring and special studies showed limited short-term and no long-term toxicity directly attributable to aquatic herbicide applications. Risk quotient calculations called for additional risk characterizations; these included limited assessments for glyphosate and fluridone and more extensive risk assessments for diquat dibromide, chelated copper products, and copper sulfate. Use of surfactants in conjunction with aquatic herbicides was positively associated with greater ecosystem impacts. Results therefore warrant full risk characterization for all adjuvant compounds. PMID:18293029

  1. Customer satisfaction and customer loyalty as predictors of future business potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskildsen, Jacob Kjær; Kristensen, Kai

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyses the relationship between customer satisfaction, customer loyalty and the future business potential of existing customers. The data for the analysis come from the Danish Customer Satisfaction Index 2006. Here a total of approximately 2000 private customers evaluated...

  2. The potential role of life cycle assessment in regulation of chemicals in the European Union

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Frans Møller; Olsen, Stig Irving

    2004-01-01

    Scope and Background. This paper presents the preliminary results from an ongoing feasibility study, investigating potential application of elements from the life cycle assessment (LCA) framework in European chemicals' policy. Many policy areas affect manufacturing, marketing and use of chemicals......- orientated risk assessment approaches. However, the increasing need for regulatory priority setting and comparative/ cumulative assessments might in the future convey LCIA principles into the regulatory framework. The same underlying databases on inherent properties of chemicals are already applied in both...... incorporation of core findings in future chemical regulation and related policy areas....

  3. Energy potential of region and its quantitative assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatyana Aleksandrovna Kovalenko

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the article is the development of the concept of the energy potential of the region (EPR, the analysis of the existing structure of relationships for the EPR elements in Ukraine and improvement of a quantitative assessment of energy potential of the region (country. The methods of an assessment of the existing condition of energy potential of the territory are the subject matter of the research. As a result of the analysis of concept’s definitions of energy potential of the region, it has further development and included the consumer potential of energy resources and capacity of management. The structure of relationships between elements of energy potential is developed for the Ukraine region. The new economic indicator — the realized energy potential is offered for an EPR assessment. By means of this indicator, the assessment of energy potential for the different countries of the world and a number of Ukraine areas of is performed.

  4. Future yields assessment of bioenergy crops in relation to climate change and technological development in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvatore L. Cosentino

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Bioenergy crops are expected to play an important role in reducing CO2 emission, in energy supply and in European energy policy. However, a sustainable bioenergy supply must be resilient to climate change and the impacts on agriculture at both global and regional scale. The purpose of this study was to forecast the potential distribution of several bioenergy crops based on agronomic and environmental constrains under current conditions and future scenarios (2020 and 2030 in European Union. Potential biomass yield, according to the category end use product achievable in each environmental zone of Europe at present and in the future available land have been also studied. Future yields were assessed according to two factors: technological development and climate change: the former was based on prospect of DG-Agriculture for conventional crops and expert judgments for bioenergy crops, while the latter based on relevant research papers and literature reviews which used site-specific crop growth models. Yields are expected to increase in northern Europe due to climate change and technological development, while in southerneastern Europe the negative effect of climate change will be mitigated by the technological development. The estimated total biomass production in Europe, on the basis of future yields and surplus land made available for energy crops, may not be sufficient to meet the needs of bioenergy supply as claimed in the European directive 2009/28/EC.

  5. The future of Yellowcake: a global assessment of uranium resources and mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudd, Gavin M

    2014-02-15

    Uranium (U) mining remains controversial in many parts of the world, especially in a post-Fukushima context, and often in areas with significant U resources. Although nuclear proponents point to the relatively low carbon intensity of nuclear power compared to fossil fuels, opponents argue that this will be eroded in the future as ore grades decline and energy and greenhouse gas emissions (GGEs) intensity increases as a result. Invariably both sides fail to make use of the increasingly available data reported by some U mines through sustainability reporting - allowing a comprehensive assessment of recent trends in the energy and GGE intensity of U production, as well as combining this with reported mineral resources to allow more comprehensive modelling of future energy and GGEs intensity. In this study, detailed data sets are compiled on reported U resources by deposit type, as well as mine production, energy and GGE intensity. Some important aspects included are the relationship between ore grade, deposit type and recovery, which are crucial in future projections of U mining. Overall, the paper demonstrates that there are extensive U resources known to meet potential short to medium term demand, although the future of U mining remains uncertain due to the doubt about the future of nuclear power as well as a range of complex social, environmental, economic and some site-specific technical issues.

  6. The future of Yellowcake: a global assessment of uranium resources and mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudd, Gavin M

    2014-02-15

    Uranium (U) mining remains controversial in many parts of the world, especially in a post-Fukushima context, and often in areas with significant U resources. Although nuclear proponents point to the relatively low carbon intensity of nuclear power compared to fossil fuels, opponents argue that this will be eroded in the future as ore grades decline and energy and greenhouse gas emissions (GGEs) intensity increases as a result. Invariably both sides fail to make use of the increasingly available data reported by some U mines through sustainability reporting - allowing a comprehensive assessment of recent trends in the energy and GGE intensity of U production, as well as combining this with reported mineral resources to allow more comprehensive modelling of future energy and GGEs intensity. In this study, detailed data sets are compiled on reported U resources by deposit type, as well as mine production, energy and GGE intensity. Some important aspects included are the relationship between ore grade, deposit type and recovery, which are crucial in future projections of U mining. Overall, the paper demonstrates that there are extensive U resources known to meet potential short to medium term demand, although the future of U mining remains uncertain due to the doubt about the future of nuclear power as well as a range of complex social, environmental, economic and some site-specific technical issues. PMID:24317167

  7. Proposal of global flood vulnerability scenarios for evaluating future potential flood losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Y.; Tanoue, M.; Watanabe, S.; Hirabayashi, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Flooding is one of the most hazardous and damaging natural disasters causing serious economic loss and casualties across the world (Jongman et al., 2015). Previous studies showed that the global temperature increase affects regional weather pattern, and several general circulation model (GCM) simulations suggest the increase of flood events in both frequency and magnitude in many parts of the world (Hirabayashi et al., 2013). Effective adaptation to potential flood risks under the warming climate requires an in-depth understanding of both the physical and socioeconomic contributors of the flood risk. To assess the realistic future potential flood risk, future sophisticated vulnerability scenarios associated with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are necessary. In this study we propose a new future vulnerability scenarios in mortality. Our vulnerability scenarios are constructed based on the modeled flood exposure (population potentially suffered by flooding) and a past from 1980 to 2005. All the flood fatality data were classified according to four income levels (high, mid-high, mid-low and low). Our proposed scenarios have three pathways regarding to SSPs; High efficiency (HE) scenario (SSP1, SSP4 (rich country) and SSP5), Medium efficiency (ME) scenario (SSP2), and Low efficiency (LE) scenario (SSP3 and SSP4 (poor country)). The maximum mortality protection level on each category was detected by applying exponential curve fitting with offset term. Slopes in the HE scenario are assumed to be equal to slopes estimated by regression analysis in each category. The slope in the HE scenario is defined by the mean value of all countries' slope value that is approximately -0.33 mortality decreases per year. The EM-DAT mortality data shows a decreasing trend in time in almost all of the countries. Although mortalities in some countries show an increasing trend, this is because these countries were affected by once-in-hundred-years floods after 1990's. The slope in

  8. Assessment of potential adjuvanticity of Cry proteins

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joshi, Saurabh S; Barnett, Brian; Doerrer, Nancy G;

    2016-01-01

    the potential immuno-adjuvant effects of Cry proteins. These studies had limitations in study design. The studies used animal models with extremely high doses of Cry proteins, which when given using the ig route were co-administered with an adjuvant. Although the presumption exists that Cry proteins may have...

  9. Bio-SNG potential assessment: Denmark 2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahrenfeldt, J.; Thomsen, T. (Risoe DTU, Roskilde (Denmark)); Joergensen, Betina (Dansk Gasteknisk Center A/S, Hoersholm (Denmark))

    2010-11-15

    In this project the potential for SNG based on biomass gasification has been sought elucidated. As part of the project a model for simulation of biomass in Denmark has been developed. The conclusion is that SNG can substitute a significant amount of natural gas, but the energy efficiency should be improved. (Author)

  10. Bio-SNG potential assessment: Denmark 2020

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahrenfeldt, Jesper; Jørgensen, Betina; Thomsen, Tobias

    In this project the potential for SNG based on biomass gasification has been sought elucidated. As part of the project a model for simulation of biomass in Denmark has been developed. The conclusion is that SNG can substitute a significant amount of natural gas, but the energy efficiency should be...

  11. Complex Assessment of Sufficiency of the Bank Resource Potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azizova Kateryna M.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the article is development of methodical recommendations regarding assessment of sufficiency of the bank resource potential by means of identification and analysis of all its components and use of the method of rating assessment. Analysing, systemising and generalising scientific works of foreign and Ukrainian scientists, the article considers a complex approach to the bank resource potential management. In the result of the study the article identifies specific features of a complex approach in the bank resource potential management. The method of geometric average and normative values of selected ratios for calculation was used for the generalising complex assessment of sufficiency of the bank resource potential. The rating assessment of the Public JSC Mercury Bank resource potential was calculated by such indicators as: debt, loan and own resources. The stated algorithm of the rating assessment of the resource potential could be applied for comparison of banks in dynamics.

  12. Assessing and treating cognitive impairment in schizophrenia: current and future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chun-Yuan; Tsai, Guochuan E; Lane, Hsien-Yuan

    2014-01-01

    Schizophrenia is a serious neuropsychiatric disease characterized by positive symptoms, negative symptoms and cognitive impairment. Evidence have shown that cognitive impairment sustains in every clinical stage, may relate with the liability, may predict functional outcome in schizophrenia and could be the core symptom of schizophrenia. The treatment of cognitive impairment in schizophrenia could alleviate the burden of the illness and has become the subject of intensive research. In this review, we synthesize current advances of assessing strategies, pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatments of cognitive impairment in schizophrenia. According to the registered records of ClinicalTrials.gov, the most widely studied strategies have aimed at modifying neurochemical mechanisms of dopamine metabolism, glutamate metabolism, γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA) metabolism, serotonin metabolism, acetylcholine metabolism, and oxytocin. Despite preclinical data for putative pro-cognitive drugs, their clinical benefits for schizophrenia patients have been limited. The small sample sizes and the short treatment duration could be related with the suboptimal results. Evidence supported the short-term benefits of cognitive remediation therapy on cognitive domains with small to moderate effects; however, the small sample sizes and the characteristics of subjects limited the generalization of the positive results and the long-term functional outcome is not clear. Combination therapy is promising, by integrating pro-cognitive agents and cognitive rehabilitation programs or combining two kinds of pro-cognitive agents via different mechanisms. Future studies should investigate the pro-cognitive drugs' long-term efficacy, rebound deterioration in psychosis/cognition following discontinuation, and related biomarkers of functional outcome.

  13. Global and Regional Future Potential for Energy from Municipal Solid Waste

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, J. S.; Smith, S. J.

    2008-12-01

    Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) is a low-cost form of alternative energy with a large potential for future expansion. MSW is already collected and aggregated at population centers where energy demands are high. In addition, it is non-seasonal, and using MSW as an energy source reduces land demand for waste disposal sites in urban areas where land pressures are high. Across the world, the MSW generation rate and its composition vary greatly, but detailed historical data on MSW are not well archived for most of the world. In this study, material flows into the MSW stream are estimated by analyzing production and trade statistics of food, wood, and paper. A life cycle analysis for consumption is used to estimate the amount and composition of MSW for all countries of the world. The primary energy available is estimated based on the energy content of the various waste components. The relationship between GDP, population, per capita GDP, and MSW generation is determined via a regression model. The ObjECTS MiniCAM (integrated assessment model) is used to project the demand for waste-to-energy for the next century for different regions of the world under various international climate policy scenarios. MSW is potentially a low net carbon energy source that can displace fossil energy, and as such, demand for waste-to-energy increases under a climate policy that places a price on carbon emissions.

  14. Hydropower in Turkey: potential and market assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-10-15

    The Turkish hydropower market provides huge opportunities for investors and suppliers. Successful market entry is not easy, however, as the market is still not fully liberalized, the need for local intelligence is large and the competition is increasing. There are also potential political, reputational and environmental risks, typical for an emerging economy. The World Bank global 'Ease of doing business' ranking (2010), ranks Turkey as number 73 of 183 countries. (Author)

  15. The future of global water stress: An integrated assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlosser, C. Adam; Strzepek, Kenneth; Gao, Xiang; Fant, Charles; Blanc, Élodie; Paltsev, Sergey; Jacoby, Henry; Reilly, John; Gueneau, Arthur

    2014-08-01

    We assess the ability of global water systems, resolved at 282 assessment subregions (ASRs), to the meet water requirements under integrated projections of socioeconomic growth and climate change. We employ a water resource system (WRS) component embedded within the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework in a suite of simulations that consider a range of climate policies and regional hydroclimate changes out to 2050. For many developing nations, water demand increases due to population growth and economic activity have a much stronger effect on water stress than climate change. By 2050, economic growth and population change alone can lead to an additional 1.8 billion people living under at least moderate water stress, with 80% of these located in developing countries. Uncertain regional climate change can play a secondary role to either exacerbate or dampen the increase in water stress. The strongest climate impacts on water stress are observed in Africa, but strong impacts also occur over Europe, Southeast Asia, and North America. The combined effects of socioeconomic growth and uncertain climate change lead to a 1.0-1.3 billion increase of the world's 2050 projected population living with overly exploited water conditions—where total potential water requirements will consistently exceed surface water supply. This would imply that adaptive measures would be taken to meet these surface water shortfalls and include: water-use efficiency, reduced and/or redirected consumption, recurrent periods of water emergencies or curtailments, groundwater depletion, additional interbasin transfers, and overdraw from flow intended to maintain environmental requirements.

  16. US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John; Jacobs, Kathy; Lempert, Rob; Mearns, L. O.; Melillo, Jerry; Mote, Phil; O' Brien, Sheila; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, Alex; Sheppard, Stephen; Vallario, Robert W.; Wiek, Arnim; Wilbanks, Thomas

    2011-10-01

    This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for release in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes

  17. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    activities. The method results in the development of LULC maps providing insights into a range of alternative futures using a scope of socio-economic and environmental conditions. A landslides assessment model, the ALICE model is then used as a final tool to analyze the potential impacts of simulated LUCC on landslide risks and the consequences in terms of vulnerability, e.g. changes in disaster risk allocation or characterization, degree of perturbation. This assessment intends to provide insights onto the potential future development of the valley to help identify areas at stake and to guide decision makers to help the risk management. Preliminary results show strong differences of futures land use and land cover maps that have significant influence on landslides hazards.

  18. Preliminary Assessment Of SIRE's Potential For Contamination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mah, D. L.; Muscari, J. A.

    1981-07-01

    This paper presents the results of a contamination analysis and computer modeling study performed for the Space Infrared Experiment (SIRE) using the Space Transport System (STS) Shuttle Orbiter as the launch vehicle for the proposed seven-day sortie mission. These results will provide an accurate description of the deposition levels on the telescope primary mirror and of the molecular number column density (NCD) along the telescope line-of-sight. The planned Helium Purge System was assumed not to be operating. The contri-bution to the contamination environment of any cargo element, other than SIRE and its pallet, was not considered in this study. The study considers five potential contamination sources, including the flash evaporator vent effluents and the vernier reaction control system (VCS) engines plume constituents.

  19. Compositional effects of organic material in HC potential assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, W. P.; Tsai, L. Y.

    2015-12-01

    Studies of petroleum system is the main theme of hydrocarbon potential assessment, in which the characteristics of source rock is especially worth noticed. In recent years, besides the growth of conventional hydrocarbon resources being rapidly utilized, the exploration of unconventional deposits is getting more and more important. Since Taiwan has a strong energy demand and still highly relied on imported fossil fuel, the development of unconventional gas resources needs to be considered. This research discussed the relationship among characteristics and thermal maturity of different organic material versus their hydrocarbon potential. In order to compare the compositional effects from different organic material, torbanites from Huangxian basin, China and Miocene humic coal from Chuhuangkeng Anticline (one of the most productive oil and gas fields), Taiwan were examined and compared. Torbanites from China had relatively low maturation with vitrinite reflectance 0.38~0.51%, whereas the maturation of humic coal from Chuhuangkeng Anticline are a little bit higher with vitrinite reflectance 0.55~0.6%, plus some methane explored. Methods of study include petrographic analysis, vitrinite reflectance measurement (Ro%), Rock-Eval pyrolysis, and other geochemical parameters. The conclusions were derived after comparing experimental results and the regional geologic information of samples studied. In conclude, sample from China is type I kerogen, and its organic matter is mostly algae, whereas the humic coal sample from Taiwan belongs to type III kerogen. The analytic results indicate that the characteristics organic matters affect their maturity. Even though the thermal history and depositional environments are different in Taiwan and China, their organic micelles still exhibit a similar trend in the process of coalification. The role of maceral composition played in HC potential needs to be considered in future shale gas exploration.

  20. ASSESSMENT OF HOUSEHOLD CARBON FOOTPRINT REDUCTION POTENTIALS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, Klaas Jan; Homan, Greg; Brown, Rich; Worrell, Ernst; Masanet, Eric

    2009-04-15

    The term ?household carbon footprint? refers to the total annual carbon emissions associated with household consumption of energy, goods, and services. In this project, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory developed a carbon footprint modeling framework that characterizes the key underlying technologies and processes that contribute to household carbon footprints in California and the United States. The approach breaks down the carbon footprint by 35 different household fuel end uses and 32 different supply chain fuel end uses. This level of end use detail allows energy and policy analysts to better understand the underlying technologies and processes contributing to the carbon footprint of California households. The modeling framework was applied to estimate the annual home energy and supply chain carbon footprints of a prototypical California household. A preliminary assessment of parameter uncertainty associated with key model input data was also conducted. To illustrate the policy-relevance of this modeling framework, a case study was conducted that analyzed the achievable carbon footprint reductions associated with the adoption of energy efficient household and supply chain technologies.

  1. Assessment of the destructive potential of hail

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cica, Roxana Diana; Burcea, Sorin; Bojariu, Roxana; Dumitrescu, Alexandru

    2013-04-01

    Hail produced by severe convective storms represents a natural hazard, and is of particular interest to the insurance industry. Severe hail can cause substantial damages to automobiles, buildings, and crops. The amount of hail damage is mostly a function of the frequency and intensity of the hailfalls. Since the spatial distribution and temporal variations of the hailfalls are strongly localized, ground reports from weather stations should be complemented with other types of information. This study focuses therefore on the combined analysis of data recorded at ground and weather radar measurements. Radar data has the advantage of high spatial and temporal resolutions, resulting in a very feasible option to detect hail in comparison to operational weather stations. As the first study of its kind in Romania, the analysis was undertaken on a limited area which is defined by the total coverage area of the Doppler weather radar system operatioanal at Bucharest. Hail kinetic energy derived from radar reflectivity is used to identify hail on the ground. The hail reports from the weather stations and automobiles, building and crop damage locations are used for validation. While many studies used only the 55 dBZ threshold for hail identification, in our research we have investigated and used several reflectivity threshold levels to improve the hail detection. In this regard, several convective weather case studies were analyzed. Hail kinetic energy was the main parameter used to reflect the distructive potential of hailfalls. To identify areas at risk of hail damage, maps of hail kinetic spatial distribution were developed. It is observed that hail kinetic energy corresponds well with hail recorded at the ground. An additional parameter developed to help at the identification of areas prone to hail damage is the frequency of detection (FOD) of radar echoes above a certain threshold (e.g., 53 dBZ). FOD maps were constructed for the convective days when hail was detected

  2. Using scenarios to assess possible future impacts of invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauber, T. Bruce; Stedman, Richard C.; Connelly, Nancy A; Rudstam, Lars G.; Ready, Richard C; Poe, Gregory L; Bunnell, David; Hook, Tomas O.; Koops, Marten A.; Ludsin, Stuart A.; Rutherford, Edward S; Wittmann, Marion E.

    2016-01-01

    The expected impacts of invasive species are key considerations in selecting policy responses to potential invasions. But predicting the impacts of invasive species is daunting, particularly in large systems threatened by multiple invasive species, such as North America’s Laurentian Great Lakes. We developed and evaluated a scenario-building process that relied on an expert panel to assess possible future impacts of aquatic invasive species on recreational fishing in the Great Lakes. To maximize its usefulness to policy makers, this process was designed to be implemented relatively rapidly and consider a range of species. The expert panel developed plausible, internally-consistent invasion scenarios for 5 aquatic invasive species, along with subjective probabilities of those scenarios. We describe these scenarios and evaluate this approach for assessing future invasive species impacts. The panel held diverse opinions about the likelihood of the scenarios, and only one scenario with impacts on sportfish species was considered likely by most of the experts. These outcomes are consistent with the literature on scenario building, which advocates for developing a range of plausible scenarios in decision making because the uncertainty of future conditions makes the likelihood of any particular scenario low. We believe that this scenario-building approach could contribute to policy decisions about whether and how to address the possible impacts of invasive species. In this case, scenarios could allow policy makers to narrow the range of possible impacts on Great Lakes fisheries they consider and help set a research agenda for further refining invasive species predictions.

  3. The past and the future of constructive technology assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schot, J.W.; Rip, A.

    1997-01-01

    Constructive technology assessment (CTA) is a member of the family of technology assessment approaches. developed in particular in the Netherlands and Denmark. CTA shifts the focus away from assessing impacts of new technologies to broadening design, development, and implementation processes. Explic

  4. Assessment of wind energy potential in Croatia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poje, D.; Cividini, B. (Hydrometeorological Institute, Zagreb (Yugoslavia))

    1988-01-01

    In this work, the eolian potential of Croatia (one of the Yugoslav republics) is investigated on the basis of 32 anemograph stations. Mean hourly values were used for calculation of Weibull's distribution parameter c and k, and mean annual and seasonal wind power densities. The vertical extrapolation of wind speeds was based on Justus expression. Mean annual wind energies were calculated for two types of aerogenerators. Analysis of these data showed that in the interior of Croatia, at 10 m above ground, low naturally available wind power densities exist: less than 50 W/m{sup 2}. On the Adriatic basin, in some area along the coast, a wind power of over 300 W/m{sup 2} may be gained. The annual natural wind energies at 50 m above ground lie in the continental part between 250 and 1300 kWh/m{sup 2} and on the eastern part of Adriatic basin between 500 and 8100 kWh/m{sup 2}.

  5. Turbulence assessment at potential turbine sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniels, A. [Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI (United States)

    1996-12-31

    As opposed to a fixed anemometer, the Tala kite is free to move in the air. The motion of the kite is not random, it moves with or against the speed gradient towards the center of passing turbulence events of higher or lower speeds thus allowing the kite to measure event maximum or minimum speed rather than the speed at some unknown distance from the event center like a fixed anemometer. This behavior is confirmed both by a theoretical aerodynamics analysis of the kite motion and by data from a field study where kite and hot film anemometer (HFA) events, defined by the rain flow count method, were compared with flap events on a rotating turbine blade. The HFAs simulated too few events lasting too long while the kites reproduced both the number of events and event periods remarkably close. It is concluded that the kite is the optimal tool for measuring turbulence at potential turbine sites. Kite turbulence can form the bases for economic return estimates and an example is given where less windy sites could be more economical than other more turbulent higher speed sites. 13 refs., 8 figs.

  6. Beyond offshoring: assess your company's global potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Diana

    2004-12-01

    In the past few years, companies have become aware that they can slash costs by offshoring: moving jobs to lower-wage locations. But this practice is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of how globalization can transform industries, according to research by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI). The institute's yearlong study suggests that by streamlining their production processes and supply chains globally, rather than just nationally or regionally, companies can lower their costs-as we've seen in the consumer-electronics and PC industries. Companies can save as much as 70% of their total costs through globalization--50% from offshoring, 5% from training and business-task redesign, and 15% from process improvements. But they don't have to stop there. The cost reductions make it possible to lower prices and expand into new markets, attracting whole new classes of customers. To date, however, few businesses have recognized the full scope of performance improvements that globalization makes possible, much less developed sound strategies for capturing those opportunities. In this article, Diana Farrell, director of MGI, offers a step-by-step approach to doing both things. Among her suggestions: Assess where your industry falls along the globalization spectrum, because not all sectors of the economy face the same challenges and opportunities at the same time. Also, pay attention to production, regulatory, and organizational barriers to globalization. If any of these can be changed, size up the cost-saving (and revenue-generating) opportunities that will emerge for your company as a result of those changes. Farrell also defines the five stages of globalization-market entry, product specialization, value chain disaggregation, value chain reengineering, and the creation of new markets-and notes the different levers for cutting costs and creating value that companies can use in each phase. PMID:15605568

  7. Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (ORION)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mott, Diana L.; Bigler, Mark A.

    2017-01-01

    NASA uses two HRA assessment methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is still expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a PRA model that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more problematic. In order to determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the assumptions and expectations expressed in the assessments will be needed when the procedures, flight rules and operational requirements are developed and then

  8. Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (Orion)

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana L.; Bigler, Mark A.

    2017-01-01

    NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. To determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators, and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the

  9. Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (Orion)

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana; Bigler, Mark

    2016-01-01

    NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. In order to determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the

  10. An Analysis of Current and Future Wind Energy Gain Potential for Central Iowa

    OpenAIRE

    Sharifi, Farrokh; Hashemi, Nastaran

    2015-01-01

    Using a significant quantity of fossil fuels has adverse impacts on our lives and will affect future generations. Additionally, there are limited and decreasing numbers of nonrenewable resources around the world. In contrast, renewable resources are not depleted and provide energy with negligible pollution. Wind energy is one of the more common renewable energy resources. This project aims to evaluate Iowa's wind energy potential and to provide suggestions to improve the future well‐being of ...

  11. Assessment of bioenergy potential on marginal land in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhuang, Dafang; Jiang, Dong; Liu, Lei; Huang, Yaohuan [Data Center for Resources and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101 (China)

    2011-02-15

    Bioenergy developed from energy plants will play a more and more important role in future energy supply. Much attention has been paid to energy plants in recent years. As China has fairly limited cultivated land resources, the bioenergy development may mainly rely on the exploitation of marginal land. This study focused on the assessment of marginal land resources and bio-fuel potential in China using newly acquired data and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. A multi-factor analysis method was adopted to identify marginal lands for bioenergy development in China, with data of several main types of energy plants on the eco-environmental requirements and natural habits employed. A combined planting zonation strategy was proposed, which was targeted for five species of energy plants including Helianthus tuberous L., Pistacia chinensis, Jatropha curcas L., Cassava and Vernicia fordii. The results indicated that total area of marginal land exploitable for development of energy plants on a large scale was about 43.75 million ha. If 10% of this marginal land was fully utilized for growing the energy plants, the production of bio-fuel would be 13.39 million tons. (author)

  12. Future potential for anti-infectives from bacteria - how to exploit biodiversity and genomic potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Rolf; Wink, Joachim

    2014-01-01

    The early stages of antibiotic development include the identification of novel hit compounds. Since actinomycetes and myxobacteria are still the most important natural sources of active metabolites, we provide an overview on these producers and discuss three of the most promising approaches toward finding novel anti-infectives from microorganisms. These are defined as the use of biodiversity to find novel producers, the variation of culture conditions and induction of silent genes, and the exploitation of the genomic potential of producers via "genome mining". Challenges that exist beyond compound discovery are outlined in the last section. PMID:24119567

  13. Assessing the Seismic Potential Hazard of the Makran Subduction Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frohling, E.; Szeliga, W. M.; Melbourne, T. I.; Abolghasem, A.; Lodi, S. H.

    2013-12-01

    Long quiescent subduction zones like the Makran, Sunda, and Cascadia, which have long recurrence intervals for large (> Mw 8) earthquakes, often have poorly known seismic histories and are particularly vulnerable and often ill-prepared. The Makran subduction zone has not been studied extensively, but the 1945 Mw 8.1 earthquake and subsequent tsunami, as well as more recent mid magnitude, intermediate depth (50-100 km) seismicity, demonstrates the active seismic nature of the region. Recent increases in regional GPS and seismic monitoring now permit the modeling of strain accumulations and seismic potential of the Makran subduction zone. Subduction zone seismicity indicates that the eastern half of the Makran is presently more active than the western half. It has been hypothesized that the relative quiescence of the western half is due to aseismic behavior. However, based on GPS evidence, the entire subduction zone generally appears to be coupled and has been accumulating stress that could be released in another > 8.0 Mw earthquake. To assess the degree of coupling, we utilize existing GPS data to create a fault coupling model for the Makran using a preliminary 2-D fault geometry derived from ISC hypocenters. Our 2-D modeling is done using the backslip approach and defines the parameters in our coupling model; we forego the generation of a 3-D model due to the low spatial density of available GPS data. We compare the use of both NUVEL-1A plate motions and modern Arabian plate motions derived from GPS station velocities in Oman to drive subduction for our fault coupling model. To avoid non-physical inversion results, we impose second order smoothing to eliminate steep strain gradients. The fit of the modeled inter-seismic deformation vectors are assessed against the observed strain from the GPS data. Initial observations indicate that the entire subduction zone is currently locked and accumulating strain, with no identifiable gaps in the interseismic locking

  14. Future Diet Scenarios and Their Effect on Regional and Global Biofuel Potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, J.; hvid, A.

    2012-04-01

    Food production has been one of the most significant ways in which humans have changed the surface of the Earth. It is projected that further intensification of agriculture will be necessary to meet a growing population and the increased demand for calories from animal products. This would require substantially more land and resources devoted to animal production. However, globally, the proportion of per capita caloric intake from animal to total caloric intake has remained relatively constant for the last 50 years at slightly above 15%. Nevertheless, there are large discrepancies across regions and through time. For example, northern European countries derive over 30% of calories from animal products, while India is under 10%; between 1961 and 2007, China's per capita consumption of animal calories has increased by over a factor of ten, while in the US, animal calorie consumption has remained constant. In general, per capita consumption of animal products is lower in developing countries than in developed countries, and it is commonly assumed that future animal product consumption will increase as developing countries become wealthier. On the other hand, wealthier countries are remaining constant or even decreasing their proportional consumption of animal calories, and this could be a different way that future diets may evolve. We create different future scenarios for calorie demand from vegetal products, beef, sheep and goat, pork, poultry, and dairy based on historical national trends and estimated income elasticities for these various food products. The extreme scenarios are one in which the world evolves to a highly vegetal calorie diet and, on the other extreme, one in which the world evolves to diets with high meat consumption. Intermediate scenarios include projections of current trends and one in which the world moves to a healthy balanced diet given current recommendations. Using DTU-GCAM, and global integrated assessment model with an included land use

  15. Customer Satisfaction and Customer Loyalty as Predictors of Future Business Potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskildsen, Jacob Kjær; Kristensen, Kai

    2007-01-01

    This paper analyzes the relationship between customer satisfaction, customer loyalty and the future business potential of existing customers. The data for the analysis comes from the Danish Customer Satisfaction Index 2006. Here a total of app. 2000 private customers evaluated their preferred pro......This paper analyzes the relationship between customer satisfaction, customer loyalty and the future business potential of existing customers. The data for the analysis comes from the Danish Customer Satisfaction Index 2006. Here a total of app. 2000 private customers evaluated their...

  16. Assessment of the energy efficiency enhancement of future mobile networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Litjens, R.; Toh, Y.; Zhang, H.; Blume, O.

    2014-01-01

    We assess the energy efficiency of mobile networks in 2020, and compare it with a 2010 baseline. A comprehensive assessment approach is taken, considering all relevant scenario aspects such as data traffic growth, hardware evolutions, mobile network deployments and operations including network shari

  17. Assessment and E-Learning: Current Issues and Future Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowie, Neil; Sakui, Keiko

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes different ways in which digital technology can be used for language learning. It then identifies some key trends connecting assessment and technology in language learning and higher education: the use of automated systems to enhance traditional assessment practices; the use of Web 2.0 tools to facilitate new assessment…

  18. The New SAT: The Future of Transition Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graff, A. Steven

    1993-01-01

    Describes changes being made in the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) and other standardized tests. Highlights include a history of standardized college entrance testing; the change process of the SAT; descriptions of the new SAT I Reasoning Tests and SAT II Subject Tests; comparisons between the old and the new SAT; and future possibilities. (LRW)

  19. Future of car-sharing in Germany: Customer potential estimation, diffusion and ecological effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The article summarises selected key results of the project 'Future of Car-Sharing in Germany', funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research. The target of the research was to improve the informational basis for the traffic and environmental assessment of car-sharing in Germany by means of an empirically based estimation of the medium-term perspective (time horizon 2020). Intermediate results were presented at the ECEEE congress 2005.Basis of the demand analyses, which were aligned to the milieu concept, was provided by two surveys (a non-representative survey of circa 500 customers and former customers and a representative survey of around 1,500 non-customers). In the interviews two service scenarios of a 'new' Car-Sharing in the shape of short-term car rental without ecological requirements were used. The analysis of the surveys was differentiated on two levels: On general level covering the whole sample and on the level of sub-samples covering the different milieus. Findings are provided with regard to prospective customers (social milieu affiliation, social profiles, notional using patterns) and backgrounds of their interest in short-term car rental as well as results of a customer potential estimation and a traffic and eco-balance. The results show that a diffusion of short-term car rentals appears feasible with an eco-balance remaining positive. For various reasons, the market development to be achieved by the year 2020, however, should be relatively limited. Similar is true for the potential contribution of car-sharing to a sustainable mobility altogether

  20. Biogas. Present situation and future potential; Biogas. Nulaege och framtida potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nordberg, Ulf [Swedish Inst. of Agricultural and Environmental Engineering, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2006-12-15

    The report contains a general overview of present technology concerning production of biogas through anaerobic breakdown of easily recycled organic material as well as implementation areas for biogas. The work has been done in three parts: description of present situation, technical limitations and development efforts, synthesis. In Sweden there are more than 220 biogas plants for handling crops, sludge and organic residue material. Production of biogas occurs primarily at sewage treatment plants and landfills. Total capacity in 2004 was approx. 300,000 m{sup 3} anaerobic chamber volume, of which approx. 73% was utilised. Planned increase in capacity was approx. 125,000 m{sup 3} or approx. 42%.The substrate brought to the plants was comprised of approx. 45% manure, 30% offal, 10% biowaste from households and 15% other substrates. Calculations based on the energy content of input substrate indicate that approx. 10% of the gas was from manure, 65% from offal, 25% from household waste and 5% from other substrates. In 2005 a total of 1,5 TWh of biogas was produced in Sweden. Biogas is used primarily for heating purposes followed by use as vehicle fuel and in electricity production. More than 55 GWh is torched away. Sewage treatment plants are not included. Interest in using biogas as fuel has increased. The theoretical biogas potential in Sweden has been calculated to be 14-17 TWh per year, of which approx. 80% is found in agriculturally related biomass. Approximately 3 TWh originates from various types of household and industrial waste. Generally it can be said that there is a large potential for improvement and increased efficiency within the whole chain of substrate collection, preparatory treatment of substrates, operational control of biogas plants, upgrade/treatment and use of gas as well as spreading and use of biofertilizer. The greatest increase in substrate will come from the amount of crops from the agricultural sector. The contacts between farmers and plant

  1. Assessment of risk of potential exposures on facilities industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This work develops a model to evaluate potential exposures on open facilities of industrial radiography in Brazil. This model will decisively contribute to optimize operational, radiological protection and safety procedures, to prevent radiation accidents and to reduce human errors in industrial radiography. The probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology was very useful to assess potential exposures. The open facilities of industrial radiography were identified as the scenario to be analyzed in what concerns the evaluation of potential exposures, due to their high accidents indices. The results of the assessment of potential exposures confirm that the industrial radiography in Brazil is a high-risk practice as classified by the IAEA. The risk of potential exposure was estimated to be 40,5 x 10-2 per year in Brazil, having as main consequences injuries to the workers' hands and arms. In the world scene, the consequences are worst, leading to fatalities of people, thus emphasizing the high risk of industrial radiography. (author)

  2. Future teachers’ perception on the assessing systems for their learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Víctor Manuel López Pator

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper is aimed at analysing the students’ perception on assessment and grading systems, instruments and techniques used in Teacher Education (TE. In order to determine the current situation for this assessment in TE a questionnaire containing four subscales was developed with a high reliability degree. Data obtained are applied to a simple of 635 students from 7 different colleges and analysed with both descriptive and inferential statistics using single-factor ANOVA. The outcomes show that assessing practices oriented towards learning are still minority practices in TE. On the other hand, the existence of so many significant differences between Primary Teacher Education and Secondary Teacher Education is worrisome. The analyses also suggest there are few subjects containing assessing styles oriented towards learning, although they include very varied and rich strategies.

  3. The future of Yellowcake: A global assessment of uranium resources and mining

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mudd, Gavin M., E-mail: Gavin.Mudd@monash.edu

    2014-02-01

    Uranium (U) mining remains controversial in many parts of the world, especially in a post-Fukushima context, and often in areas with significant U resources. Although nuclear proponents point to the relatively low carbon intensity of nuclear power compared to fossil fuels, opponents argue that this will be eroded in the future as ore grades decline and energy and greenhouse gas emissions (GGEs) intensity increases as a result. Invariably both sides fail to make use of the increasingly available data reported by some U mines through sustainability reporting — allowing a comprehensive assessment of recent trends in the energy and GGE intensity of U production, as well as combining this with reported mineral resources to allow more comprehensive modelling of future energy and GGEs intensity. In this study, detailed data sets are compiled on reported U resources by deposit type, as well as mine production, energy and GGE intensity. Some important aspects included are the relationship between ore grade, deposit type and recovery, which are crucial in future projections of U mining. Overall, the paper demonstrates that there are extensive U resources known to meet potential short to medium term demand, although the future of U mining remains uncertain due to the doubt about the future of nuclear power as well as a range of complex social, environmental, economic and some site-specific technical issues. - Highlights: • An extensive data set on global uranium resources and classified by deposit type. • Comprehensive analysis of key trends, such as ore grades and recovery rates. • Energy and carbon intensity of production shows an increase as ore grades decline. • Mine rehabilitation often shows poor success or accounts of long-term effectiveness. • Real constraints on nuclear power remain safety and costs compared to alternatives.

  4. Dynamic Assessment, Potential Giftedness and Mathematics Achievement in Elementary School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popa, Nicoleta Laura; Pauc, Ramona Loredana

    2015-01-01

    Dynamic assessment is currently discussed in educational literature as one of the most promising practices in stimulating learning among various groups of students, including gifted and potentially gifted students. The present study investigates effects of dynamic assessment on mathematics achievement among elementary school students, with…

  5. The Development of B2C E-Commerce in Greece: Current Situation and Future Potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kardaras, Dimitris; Papathanassiou, Eleutherios

    2000-01-01

    Reports on the results of a survey of 120 companies in Greece that evaluated the potential of business to customer (B2C) Internet applications and investigated how the Internet and e-commerce can offer new opportunities for businesses to improve their customers' satisfaction. Discusses electronic commerce problems and future technology. (Contains…

  6. Self-Assessment in Librarianship: Current Practices and Future Possibilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ania Dymarz

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The authors of this qualitative study set out to investigate self-assessment practices within the library profession. The researchers conducted semi-structured interviews with a purposeful sample of nine librarians coming from a range of library settings and possessing a diversity of library experience. Interviews were then transcribed and coded in NVIVO to identify emergent themes. This paper details some of the results of that study, highlighting motivations, limitations, and strategies with regard to self-assessment. The findings present a summary of a range of approaches to the practice of assessment as reported by the interviewees. One area of possible growth for our profession, as highlighted by the findings, is in the development of peer networks as a support for the individual practice of self-assessment. While the results of this small case study cannot be generalized, the authors hope these preliminary findings can open up the conversation around self-assessment both for individual librarians and for those librarians and managers working to shape their workplace culture.

  7. Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: Comparative aspects and future perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dorne, J.L.C.M., E-mail: jean-lou.dorne@efsa.europa.eu [Emerging Risk Unit, Via Carlo Magno 1A, 43126 Parma (Italy); Fink-Gremmels, J. [Utrecht University, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Yalelaan 104, 3584 CM Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2013-08-01

    Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. - Highlights: ► Principles of human and animal health risk assessment. ► Data gaps for each step of animal health risk assessment. ► Implications of animal risk assessment on human risk assessment. ► Future perspectives on chemical risk assessment.

  8. Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Retel, V.P.; Joore, M.A.; Rutgers, E.J.; Harten, van W.H.

    2012-01-01

    Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and d

  9. Service Quality and Customer Satisfaction: An Assessment and Future Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernon, Peter; Nitecki, Danuta A.; Altman, Ellen

    1999-01-01

    Reviews the literature of library and information science to examine issues related to service quality and customer satisfaction in academic libraries. Discusses assessment, the application of a business model to higher education, a multiple constituency approach, decision areas regarding service quality, resistance to service quality, and future…

  10. Effective peer assessment processes: : Research findings and future directions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sluijsmans, Dominique; Zundert, Marjo van; Merriënboer, J.J.G. van

    2010-01-01

    Despite the popularity of peer assessment (PA), gaps in the literature make it difficult to describe exactly what constitutes effective PA. In a literature review, we divided PA into variables and then investigated their interrelatedness. We found that (a) PA's psychometric qualities are improved by

  11. Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauser, Wolfram; Klepper, Gernot; Zabel, Florian; Delzeit, Ruth; Hank, Tobias; Putzenlechner, Birgitta; Calzadilla, Alvaro

    2015-11-12

    Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today's cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers' profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification.

  12. Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-12-15

    This report documents the future human actions, FHA, considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Site (see further the Main report /SKB 2011/). The purpose of this report is to provide an account of general considerations concerning FHA, the methodology applied in SR-Site to assess FHA, the aspects of FHA needed to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository and to select and analyse representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis. The main focus of this report is a time period when institutional control has ceased to be effective, thereby permitting inadvertent intrusion. However, a brief discussion of the earlier period when the repository has been closed, sealed and continuously kept under institutional control is also provided. General The potential exposure to large quantities of radiotoxic material is an inescapable consequence of the deposition of spent nuclear fuel in a final repository, and consequently intrusion into the repository needs to be considered in repository design and safety assessment. In accordance with ICRP recommendations /ICRP 2000/, intrusion in the post-closure phase of institutional control and beyond is primarily prevented through the design of the repository. In addition to that there will presumably continue to be safeguards measures, preservation of information (record keeping) and possibly some sort of markers placed at the site. During the institutional control period, activities at the site have to be restricted or directed if they have the potential to interfere with or hinder surveillance of the site, but this does not necessarily rule out all forms of access to the area. Also the fact that the repository contains fissile materials is an important aspect. Control of safeguards measures will most likely be upheld by national as well as international agencies. Furthermore, the

  13. Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report documents the future human actions, FHA, considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Site (see further the Main report /SKB 2011/). The purpose of this report is to provide an account of general considerations concerning FHA, the methodology applied in SR-Site to assess FHA, the aspects of FHA needed to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository and to select and analyse representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis. The main focus of this report is a time period when institutional control has ceased to be effective, thereby permitting inadvertent intrusion. However, a brief discussion of the earlier period when the repository has been closed, sealed and continuously kept under institutional control is also provided. General The potential exposure to large quantities of radiotoxic material is an inescapable consequence of the deposition of spent nuclear fuel in a final repository, and consequently intrusion into the repository needs to be considered in repository design and safety assessment. In accordance with ICRP recommendations /ICRP 2000/, intrusion in the post-closure phase of institutional control and beyond is primarily prevented through the design of the repository. In addition to that there will presumably continue to be safeguards measures, preservation of information (record keeping) and possibly some sort of markers placed at the site. During the institutional control period, activities at the site have to be restricted or directed if they have the potential to interfere with or hinder surveillance of the site, but this does not necessarily rule out all forms of access to the area. Also the fact that the repository contains fissile materials is an important aspect. Control of safeguards measures will most likely be upheld by national as well as international agencies. Furthermore, the

  14. Current Animal Models of Postoperative Spine Infection and Potential Future Advances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra eStavrakis

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Implant related infection following spine surgery is a devastating complication for patients and can potentially lead to significant neurological compromise, disability, morbidity, and even mortality. This paper provides an overview of the existing animal models of postoperative spine infection and highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each model. In addition there is discussion regarding potential modifications to these animal models to better evaluate preventative and treatment strategies for this challenging complication. Current models are effective in simulating surgical procedures but fail to evaluate infection longitudinally using multiple techniques. Potential future modifications to these models include using advanced imaging technologies to evaluate infection, use of bioluminescent bacterial species, and testing of novel treatment strategies against multiple bacterial strains. There is potential to establish a postoperative spine infection model using smaller animals, such as mice, as these would be a more cost-effective screening tool for potential therapeutic interventions.

  15. Identifying Potential Areas for Future Urban Development Using Gis-Based Multi Criteria Evaluation Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Khalid Sabbar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Malaysia likes other Asian countries has experienced rapid urbanization due to economic development, industrialization, massive migrations as well as natural population growth. This expansion particularly the unplanned has impacted negatively on farming activities and creates huge pressure arable agriculture areas. Thus, identification of potential sites for future urban development should become important issues in ensuring sustainable development. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to use GIS based multi criteria evaluation technique to identify potential areas for urban development at Balik Pulau, Penang. The study quantified spatial and temporal dynamics of land use/cover changes and identified potential areas for future development. The results indicated that large proportions of agriculture areas had been converted to built-up areas.. Urban areas increased from 1793.2 ha in 1992 to 3235.4 ha in 2002 and became 3987.8 ha in 2010. On the other hand agricultural land decreased from 6171.3ha (53.8% in 1992 to 3883 ha (35. % in 2010. The study, then, produced map showing potential sites for future urban development. The findings also indicated built-up areas would continue to encroach into flat available agricultural land which will be diminished if no restriction imposed. Thus, the information obtained from this study is useful for planners and decision makers in controlling agriculture areas and guiding new development properly.

  16. Increasing potential risk of a global aquatic invader in Europe in contrast to other continents under future climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuan Liu

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used ecological niche models (ENMs to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii, which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely

  17. Increasing Potential Risk of a Global Aquatic Invader in Europe in Contrast to Other Continents under Future Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xuan; Guo, Zhongwei; Ke, Zunwei; Wang, Supen; Li, Yiming

    2011-01-01

    Background Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. Methodology/Principal Findings We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. Conclusions/Significance Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop

  18. Qualitative assessment of patients’ attitudes and expectations towards BCIs and implications for future technology development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silke eSchicktanz

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Brain-Computer-Interfaces (BCIs are important for the next generation of neuro-prosthesis innovations. Only few pilot projects have tested patients’ abilities to control BCIs as well as their satisfaction with the offered technologies. On the one hand, little is known about patients’ moral attitudes towards the benefit-risk-ratio of BCIs as well as their needs, priorities, and expectations. On the other hand, ethics experts intensively discuss the general risks of BCIs as well as the limits of neuro-enhancement. To our knowledge, we present here the first qualitative interview study with ten chronic patients matching the potential user categories for motor and communication BCIs to assess their practical and moral attitudes towards this technology. The interviews reveal practical and moral attitudes towards motor BCIs that can impact future technology development. We discuss our empirical findings on patients’ perspectives and compare them to neuroscientists’ and ethicists’ perspectives. This analysis indicates only partial overlap between the potential users’ and the experts’ assessments of BCI-technology. It points out the importance of considering the needs and desires of the targeted patient group. Based on our findings, we suggest a multi-fold approach to the development of clinical BCIs, rooted in the participatory technology-development. We conclude that clinical BCI development needs to be explored in a disease-related and culturally sensitive way.

  19. Transportation Energy Futures Series. Potential for Energy Efficiency Improvement Beyond the Light-Duty-Vehicle Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vyas, A. D. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Patel, D. M. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Bertram, K. M. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2013-02-01

    Considerable research has focused on energy efficiency and fuel substitution options for light-duty vehicles, while much less attention has been given to medium- and heavy-duty trucks, buses, aircraft, marine vessels, trains, pipeline, and off-road equipment. This report brings together the salient findings from an extensive review of literature on future energy efficiency options for these non-light-duty modes. Projected activity increases to 2050 are combined with forecasts of overall fuel efficiency improvement potential to estimate the future total petroleum and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to current levels. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  20. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Potential for Energy Efficiency Improvement Beyond the Light-Duty-Vehicle Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vyas, A. D.; Patel, D. M.; Bertram, K. M.

    2013-03-01

    Considerable research has focused on energy efficiency and fuel substitution options for light-duty vehicles, while much less attention has been given to medium- and heavy-duty trucks, buses, aircraft, marine vessels, trains, pipeline, and off-road equipment. This report brings together the salient findings from an extensive review of literature on future energy efficiency options for these non-light-duty modes. Projected activity increases to 2050 are combined with forecasts of overall fuel efficiency improvement potential to estimate the future total petroleum and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to current levels. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  1. An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials

    CERN Document Server

    Mercure, J F

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an assessment of global economic energy potentials for all major natural energy resources. This work is based on both an extensive literature review and calculations using natural resource assessment data. Economic potentials are presented in the form of cost-supply curves, in terms of energy flows for renewable energy sources, or fixed amounts for fossil and nuclear resources, with strong emphasis on uncertainty, using a consistent methodology that allow direct comparisons to be made. In order to interpolate through available resource assessment data and associated uncertainty, a theoretical framework and a computational methodology are given based on statistical properties of different types of resources, justified empirically by the data, and used throughout. This work aims to provide a global database for natural energy resources ready to integrate into models of energy systems, enabling to introduce at the same time uncertainty over natural resource assessments. The supplementary mate...

  2. Potential impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on future agricultural land use in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farzan Ahmed, Kazi; Wang, Guiling; You, Liangzhi; Yu, Miao

    2016-02-01

    Agriculture is a key component of anthropogenic land use and land cover changes that influence regional climate. Meanwhile, in addition to socioeconomic drivers, climate is another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In this study, we compare the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa using a prototype land use projection (LandPro) algorithm. The algorithm is based on a balance between food supply and demand, and accounts for the impact of socioeconomic drivers on the demand side and the impact of climate-induced crop yield changes on the supply side. The impact of human decision-making on land use is explicitly considered through multiple "what-if" scenarios. In the application to West Africa, future crop yield changes were simulated by a process-based crop model driven with future climate projections from a regional climate model, and future changes of food demand is projected using a model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade. Without agricultural intensification, the climate-induced decrease in crop yield together with future increases in food demand is found to cause a significant increase in cropland areas at the expense of forest and grassland by the mid-century. The increase in agricultural land use is primarily climate-driven in the western part of West Africa and socioeconomically driven in the eastern part. Analysis of results from multiple scenarios of crop area allocation suggests that human adaptation characterized by science-informed decision-making can potentially minimize future land use changes in many parts of the region.

  3. Seeking potential contributions to future carbon budget in conterminous US forests considering disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Fangmin; Pan, Yude; Birdsey, Richard A.; Chen, Jing M.; Dugan, Alexa

    2016-09-01

    Currently, US forests constitute a large carbon sink, comprising about 9 % of the global terrestrial carbon sink. Wildfire is the most significant disturbance influencing carbon dynamics in US forests. Our objective is to estimate impacts of climate change, CO2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition on the future net biome productivity (NBP) of US forests until the end of twenty-first century under a range of disturbance conditions. We designate three forest disturbance scenarios under one future climate scenario to evaluate factor impacts for the future period (2011-2100): (1) no wildfires occur but forests continue to age (Saging), (2) no wildfires occur and forest ages are fixed in 2010 (Sfixed_nodis), and (3) wildfires occur according to a historical pattern, consequently changing forest age (Sdis_age_change). Results indicate that US forests remain a large carbon sink in the late twenty-first century under the Sfixed_nodis scenario; however, they become a carbon source under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios. During the period of 2011 to 2100, climate is projected to have a small direct effect on NBP, while atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition have large positive effects on NBP regardless of the future climate and disturbance scenarios. Meanwhile, responses to past disturbances under the Sfixed_nodis scenario increase NBP regardless of the future climate scenarios. Although disturbance effects on NBP under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios decrease with time, both scenarios experience an increase in NBP prior to the 2050s and then a decrease in NBP until the end of the twenty-first century. This study indicates that there is potential to increase or at least maintain the carbon sink of conterminous US forests at the current level if future wildfires are reduced and age structures are maintained at a productive mix. The effects of CO2 on the future carbon sink may overwhelm effects of other factors at the end of the twenty

  4. A multi-level strategy for anticipating future glacier lake formation and associated hazard potentials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Frey

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available In the course of glacier retreat, new glacier lakes can develop. As such lakes can be a source of natural hazards, strategies for predicting future glacier lake formation are important for an early planning of safety measures. In this article, a multi-level strategy for the identification of overdeepened parts of the glacier beds and, hence, sites with potential future lake formation, is presented. At the first two of the four levels of this strategy, glacier bed overdeepenings are estimated qualitatively and over large regions based on a digital elevation model (DEM and digital glacier outlines. On level 3, more detailed and laborious models are applied for modeling the glacier bed topography over smaller regions; and on level 4, special situations must be investigated in-situ with detailed measurements such as geophysical soundings. The approaches of the strategy are validated using historical data from Trift Glacier, where a lake formed over the past decade. Scenarios of future glacier lakes are shown for the two test regions Aletsch and Bernina in the Swiss Alps. In the Bernina region, potential future lake outbursts are modeled, using a GIS-based hydrological flow routing model. As shown by a corresponding test, the ASTER GDEM and the SRTM DEM are both suitable to be used within the proposed strategy. Application of this strategy in other mountain regions of the world is therefore possible as well.

  5. Assessing “dangerous climate change”: required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature

    OpenAIRE

    James Hansen; Pushker Kharecha; Makiko Sato; Valerie Masson-Delmotte; Frank Ackerman; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Ove Hoegh-Guldberg; Shi-Ling Hsu; Camille Parmesan; Johan Rockstrom; Rohling, Eelco J.; Jeffrey Sachs; Pete Smith; Konrad Steffen

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of similar to 500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere a...

  6. Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

    OpenAIRE

    Juan A Añel; Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Paul J Hearty; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of similar to 500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere a...

  7. 17 CFR 1.15 - Risk assessment reporting requirements for futures commission merchants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... exposure reports filed by such Material Affiliated Person with a foreign futures authority or other foreign... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment reporting requirements for futures commission merchants. 1.15 Section 1.15 Commodity and Securities Exchanges...

  8. Community Health Needs Assessment: Potential for Population Health Improvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennel, Cara L; McLeroy, Kenneth R; Burdine, James N; Matarrita-Cascante, David; Wang, Jia

    2016-06-01

    Derived from various health care policies and initiatives, the concept of population health has been newly adopted by health care and medicine. In particular, it has been suggested that the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act provision that requires nonprofit hospitals to conduct a community health needs assessment (CHNA) and implement strategies to address health priorities has the potential to improve population health. A mixed methods study design was used to examine the potential for population health improvements to occur through the Internal Revenue Service (IRS)-mandated nonprofit hospital CHNA and planning processes. Methods involved a 2-phased approach composed of (1) content analysis of 95 CHNA/implementation strategies reports and (2) interviews with key informants, consultants, and community stakeholders involved in CHNA and planning processes. Although this is a great opportunity for the nonprofit hospital assessment and planning processes to influence population health outcomes, the findings from the first 3-year assessment and planning cycle (2011-2013) suggest this is unlikely. As nonprofit hospitals begin the second 3-year assessment and planning cycle, this article offers recommendations to increase the potential for nonprofit hospitals to improve population health. These recommendations include clarifying the purpose of IRS CHNA regulations, engaging community stakeholders in collaborative assessment and planning, understanding disease etiology and identifying and addressing broader determinants of health, adopting a public health assessment and planning model, and emphasizing population health improvement. (Population Health Management 2016;19:178-186). PMID:26440370

  9. An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents an assessment of global economic energy potentials for all major natural energy resources. This work is based on both an extensive literature review and calculations using natural resource assessment data. Economic potentials are presented in the form of cost-supply curves, in terms of energy flows for renewable energy sources, or fixed amounts for fossil and nuclear resources, with strong emphasis on uncertainty, using a consistent methodology that allow direct comparisons to be made. In order to interpolate through available resource assessment data and associated uncertainty, a theoretical framework and a computational methodology are given based on statistical properties of different types of resources, justified empirically by the data, and used throughout. This work aims to provide a global database for natural energy resources ready to integrate into models of energy systems, enabling to introduce at the same time uncertainty over natural resource assessments. The supplementary material provides theoretical details and tables of data and parameters that enable this extensive database to be adapted to a variety of energy systems modelling frameworks. -- Highlights: ► Global energy potentials for all major energy resources are reported. ► Theory and methodology for calculating economic energy potentials is given. ► An uncertainty analysis for all energy economic potentials is carried out.

  10. Considering Future Potential Regarding Structural Diversity in Selection of Forest Reserves.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johanna Lundström

    Full Text Available A rich structural diversity in forests promotes biodiversity. Forests are dynamic and therefore it is crucial to consider future structural potential when selecting reserves, to make robust conservation decisions. We analyzed forests in boreal Sweden based on 17,599 National Forest Inventory (NFI plots with the main aim to understand how effectiveness of reserves depends on the time dimension in the selection process, specifically by considering future structural diversity. In the study both the economic value and future values of 15 structural variables were simulated during a 100 year period. To get a net present structural value (NPSV, a single value covering both current and future values, we used four discounting alternatives: (1 only considering present values, (2 giving equal importance to values in each of the 100 years within the planning horizon, (3 applying an annual discount rate considering the risk that values could be lost, and (4 only considering the values in year 100. The four alternatives were evaluated in a reserve selection model under budget-constrained and area-constrained selections. When selecting young forests higher structural richness could be reached at a quarter of the cost over almost twice the area in a budget-constrained selection compared to an area-constrained selection. Our results point to the importance of considering future structural diversity in the selection of forest reserves and not as is done currently to base the selection on existing values. Targeting future values increases structural diversity and implies a relatively lower cost. Further, our results show that a re-orientation from old to young forests would imply savings while offering a more extensive reserve network with high structural qualities in the future. However, caution must be raised against a drastic reorientation of the current old-forest strategy since remnants of ancient forests will need to be prioritized due to their role for

  11. Considering Future Potential Regarding Structural Diversity in Selection of Forest Reserves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundström, Johanna; Öhman, Karin; Rönnqvist, Mikael; Gustafsson, Lena

    2016-01-01

    A rich structural diversity in forests promotes biodiversity. Forests are dynamic and therefore it is crucial to consider future structural potential when selecting reserves, to make robust conservation decisions. We analyzed forests in boreal Sweden based on 17,599 National Forest Inventory (NFI) plots with the main aim to understand how effectiveness of reserves depends on the time dimension in the selection process, specifically by considering future structural diversity. In the study both the economic value and future values of 15 structural variables were simulated during a 100 year period. To get a net present structural value (NPSV), a single value covering both current and future values, we used four discounting alternatives: (1) only considering present values, (2) giving equal importance to values in each of the 100 years within the planning horizon, (3) applying an annual discount rate considering the risk that values could be lost, and (4) only considering the values in year 100. The four alternatives were evaluated in a reserve selection model under budget-constrained and area-constrained selections. When selecting young forests higher structural richness could be reached at a quarter of the cost over almost twice the area in a budget-constrained selection compared to an area-constrained selection. Our results point to the importance of considering future structural diversity in the selection of forest reserves and not as is done currently to base the selection on existing values. Targeting future values increases structural diversity and implies a relatively lower cost. Further, our results show that a re-orientation from old to young forests would imply savings while offering a more extensive reserve network with high structural qualities in the future. However, caution must be raised against a drastic reorientation of the current old-forest strategy since remnants of ancient forests will need to be prioritized due to their role for disturbance

  12. Considering Future Potential Regarding Structural Diversity in Selection of Forest Reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundström, Johanna; Öhman, Karin; Rönnqvist, Mikael; Gustafsson, Lena

    2016-01-01

    A rich structural diversity in forests promotes biodiversity. Forests are dynamic and therefore it is crucial to consider future structural potential when selecting reserves, to make robust conservation decisions. We analyzed forests in boreal Sweden based on 17,599 National Forest Inventory (NFI) plots with the main aim to understand how effectiveness of reserves depends on the time dimension in the selection process, specifically by considering future structural diversity. In the study both the economic value and future values of 15 structural variables were simulated during a 100 year period. To get a net present structural value (NPSV), a single value covering both current and future values, we used four discounting alternatives: (1) only considering present values, (2) giving equal importance to values in each of the 100 years within the planning horizon, (3) applying an annual discount rate considering the risk that values could be lost, and (4) only considering the values in year 100. The four alternatives were evaluated in a reserve selection model under budget-constrained and area-constrained selections. When selecting young forests higher structural richness could be reached at a quarter of the cost over almost twice the area in a budget-constrained selection compared to an area-constrained selection. Our results point to the importance of considering future structural diversity in the selection of forest reserves and not as is done currently to base the selection on existing values. Targeting future values increases structural diversity and implies a relatively lower cost. Further, our results show that a re-orientation from old to young forests would imply savings while offering a more extensive reserve network with high structural qualities in the future. However, caution must be raised against a drastic reorientation of the current old-forest strategy since remnants of ancient forests will need to be prioritized due to their role for disturbance

  13. Considering Future Potential Regarding Structural Diversity in Selection of Forest Reserves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundström, Johanna; Öhman, Karin; Rönnqvist, Mikael; Gustafsson, Lena

    2016-01-01

    A rich structural diversity in forests promotes biodiversity. Forests are dynamic and therefore it is crucial to consider future structural potential when selecting reserves, to make robust conservation decisions. We analyzed forests in boreal Sweden based on 17,599 National Forest Inventory (NFI) plots with the main aim to understand how effectiveness of reserves depends on the time dimension in the selection process, specifically by considering future structural diversity. In the study both the economic value and future values of 15 structural variables were simulated during a 100 year period. To get a net present structural value (NPSV), a single value covering both current and future values, we used four discounting alternatives: (1) only considering present values, (2) giving equal importance to values in each of the 100 years within the planning horizon, (3) applying an annual discount rate considering the risk that values could be lost, and (4) only considering the values in year 100. The four alternatives were evaluated in a reserve selection model under budget-constrained and area-constrained selections. When selecting young forests higher structural richness could be reached at a quarter of the cost over almost twice the area in a budget-constrained selection compared to an area-constrained selection. Our results point to the importance of considering future structural diversity in the selection of forest reserves and not as is done currently to base the selection on existing values. Targeting future values increases structural diversity and implies a relatively lower cost. Further, our results show that a re-orientation from old to young forests would imply savings while offering a more extensive reserve network with high structural qualities in the future. However, caution must be raised against a drastic reorientation of the current old-forest strategy since remnants of ancient forests will need to be prioritized due to their role for disturbance

  14. The Physiology, Pathology, and Pharmacology of Voltage-Gated Calcium Channels and Their Future Therapeutic Potential

    OpenAIRE

    Gerald W Zamponi; Striessnig, Joerg; Koschak, Alexandra; Dolphin, Annette C.

    2015-01-01

    Voltage-gated calcium channels are required for many key functions in the body. In this review, the different subtypes of voltage-gated calcium channels are described and their physiologic roles and pharmacology are outlined. We describe the current uses of drugs interacting with the different calcium channel subtypes and subunits, as well as specific areas in which there is strong potential for future drug development. Current therapeutic agents include drugs targeting L-type ...

  15. Potential impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on future agricultural land use in West Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmed, Kazi Farzan; Wang, Guiling; You, Liangzhi; Yu, Miao

    2016-01-01

    Agriculture is a key component of anthropogenic land use and land cover changes that influence regional climate. Meanwhile, in addition to socioeconomic drivers, climate is another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In this study, we compare the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa using a prototype land use projection (LandPro) algorithm. The algorithm is based on a bal...

  16. Forecasting migration in Scotland: potential impact of independence on the future trends

    OpenAIRE

    Wisniowski, Arkadiusz; Bijak, Jakub; Shang, Han Lin

    2014-01-01

    Migration to and from Scotland could potentially be affected by the outcome of the 2014 Scottish referendum on the constitutional future of the United Kingdom. The likelihood and extent of changes in migration have not been thoroughly analysed to date. This briefing paper presents selected outcomes of the analyses carried out by the ESRC Centre for Population Change on the possible effects of Scottish independence on internal and international migration. In particular, it aims to describe the...

  17. Future climate variability impacts on potential erosion and soil organic carbon in European croplands

    OpenAIRE

    Van der Velde, M.; Balkovič, J.; Beer, C.; Khabarov, N.; M. Kuhnert; Obersteiner, M.; Skalský, R.; Xiong, W; Smith, P

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the impact of future climate variability on the potential vulnerability of soils to erosion and the consequences for soil organic carbon (SOC) in European croplands. Soil erosion is an important carbon flux not characterized in Earth System Models. We use a~European implementation of EPIC, driven by reference climate data (CNTRL), and climate data with reduced variability (REDVAR). Whether erosion regimes will change across European cropland d...

  18. Potential impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on future agricultural land use in West Africa

    OpenAIRE

    K. F. Ahmed; Wang, G; You, L.; M. Yu

    2015-01-01

    Agriculture is a key component of anthropogenic land use and land cover changes that influence regional climate. Meanwhile, in addition to socioeconomic drivers, climate is another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In this study, we compare the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa using a prototype land use projection (LandPro) algorithm. The algorithm...

  19. Anti-tick biological control agents: assessment and future perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samish, M., H.; Ginsberg, H.S.; Glazer, I.

    2008-01-01

    Widespread and increasing resistance to most available acaracides threatens both global livestock industries and public health. This necessitates better understanding of ticks and the diseases they transmit in the development of new control strategies. Ticks: Biology, Disease and Control is written by an international collection of experts and covers in-depth information on aspects of the biology of the ticks themselves, various veterinary and medical tick-borne pathogens, and aspects of traditional and potential new control methods. A valuable resource for graduate students, academic researchers and professionals, the book covers the whole gamut of ticks and tick-borne diseases from microsatellites to satellite imagery and from exploiting tick saliva for therapeutic drugs to developing drugs to control tick populations. It encompasses the variety of interconnected fields impinging on the economically important and biologically fascinating phenomenon of ticks, the diseases they transmit and methods of their control.

  20. Strategy for the future use and disposition of Uranium-233: History, inventories, storage facilities, and potential future uses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document provides background information on the man-made radioisotope 233U. It is one of a series of four reports that map out potential national strategies for the future use and disposition of 233U pending action under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). The scope of this report is separated 233U, where separated refers to nonwaste 233U or 233U that has been separated from fission products. Information on other 233U, such as that in spent nuclear fuel (SNF), is included only to recognize that it may be separated at a later date and then fall under the scope of this report. The background information in this document includes the historical production and current inventory of 233U, the uses of 233U, and a discussion of the available facilities for storing 233U. The considerations for what fraction of the current inventory should be preserved for future use depend on several issues. First, 233U always contains a small amount of the contaminant isotope 232U. The decay products of 232U are highly radioactive and require special handling. The current inventory has a variety of qualities with regard to 232U content, ranging from 1 to about 200 ppm (on a total uranium basis). It is preferable to use 233U with the minimum amount of 232U in all applications. The second issue pertains to other isotopes of uranium mixed in with the 233U, specifically 235U and 238U. A large portion of the inventory has a high quantity of 235U associated with it. The presence of bulk amounts of 235U complicates storage because of the added volume needing safeguards and criticality controls. Isotopic dilution using DU may remove safeguards and criticality concerns, but it increases the overall mass and may limit applications that depend on the fissile nature of 233U. The third issue concerns the packaging of the material. There is no standard packaging (although one is being developed); consequently, the inventory exists in a variety of packages. For some applications, the

  1. Palliative care in India: Situation assessment and future scope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kar, S S; Subitha, L; Iswarya, S

    2015-01-01

    Palliative care is an approach that improves the quality of life of patients and their families facing the problems associated with life-threatening illness, through prevention and relief of suffering by means of early identification, assessment and treatment of pain, and other problems - physical, psychosocial, and spiritual. It is estimated that in India the total number of people who need palliative care is likely to be 5.4 million people a year. Though palliative care services have been in existence for many years, India ranks at the bottom of the Quality of Death index in overall score. However there has been steady progress in the past few years through community-owned palliative care services. One of the key objectives of the National Programme for prevention and control of cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and stroke is to establish and develop capacity for palliative and rehabilitative care. Community models for the provision of home-based palliative care is possible by involving community caregivers and volunteers supervised by nurses trained in palliative care. Training of medical officers and health care professionals, and sensitization of the public through awareness campaigns are vital to improve the scope and coverage of palliative care. Process of translating palliative care plan into action requires strong leadership, competent management, political support and integration across all levels of care.

  2. Palliative care in India: Situation assessment and future scope

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S S Kar

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Palliative care is an approach that improves the quality of life of patients and their families facing the problems associated with life-threatening illness, through prevention and relief of suffering by means of early identification, assessment and treatment of pain, and other problems – physical, psychosocial, and spiritual. It is estimated that in India the total number of people who need palliative care is likely to be 5.4 million people a year. Though palliative care services have been in existence for many years, India ranks at the bottom of the Quality of Death index in overall score. However there has been steady progress in the past few years through community-owned palliative care services. One of the key objectives of the National Programme for prevention and control of cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and stroke is to establish and develop capacity for palliative and rehabilitative care. Community models for the provision of home-based palliative care is possible by involving community caregivers and volunteers supervised by nurses trained in palliative care. Training of medical officers and health care professionals, and sensitization of the public through awareness campaigns are vital to improve the scope and coverage of palliative care. Process of translating palliative care plan into action requires strong leadership, competent management, political support and integration across all levels of care.

  3. Modeling and assessment of future IGCC plant concepts with CO{sub 2} capture; Simulation und Bewertung zukuenftiger IGCC-Kraftwerkskonzepte mit CO{sub 2}-Abtrennung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kunze, Christian A.

    2012-07-13

    The thesis focuses on the assessment of efficiency potential of future IGCC plants with CO{sub 2} capture. Starting point is a comprehensive analysis (thermodynamic, economic and exergy) of a state of the art IGCC. Additionally, five future IGCC concepts are proposed and evaluated for their efficiency potential in the mid- and long-term. The concepts showed significantly higher efficiencies up to approximately 60% and enable an almost CO{sub 2}-free operation.

  4. Assessing the Potential of Mathematics Textbooks to Promote Deep Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shield, Malcolm; Dole, Shelley

    2013-01-01

    Curriculum documents for mathematics emphasise the importance of promoting depth of knowledge rather than shallow coverage of the curriculum. In this paper, we report on a study that explored the analysis of junior secondary mathematics textbooks to assess their potential to assist in teaching and learning aimed at building and applying deep…

  5. Assessing the Training Potential of MTDS in Exercise First Wave

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gehr, S.E.; Schurig, M.; Jacobs, L.R.M.A.; Pal, J. van der; Bennett, W.; Schreiber, B.

    2005-01-01

    Exercise First WAVE (EFW) was conducted in November 2004 and was the first large-scale NATO MTDS event that focused on investigating and providing COMAO training for warfighters and mission support staff in a distributed synthetic environment. To assess the training potential of EFW, the NATO partne

  6. Assessing dengue vaccination impact: Model challenges and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recker, Mario; Vannice, Kirsten; Hombach, Joachim; Jit, Mark; Simmons, Cameron P

    2016-08-31

    In response to the sharp rise in the global burden caused by dengue virus (DENV) over the last few decades, the WHO has set out three specific key objectives in its disease control strategy: (i) to estimate the true burden of dengue by 2015; (ii) a reduction in dengue mortality by at least 50% by 2020 (used as a baseline); and (iii) a reduction in dengue morbidity by at least 25% by 2020. Although various elements will all play crucial parts in achieving this goal, from diagnosis and case management to integrated surveillance and outbreak response, sustainable vector control, vaccine implementation and finally operational and implementation research, it seems clear that new tools (e.g. a safe and effective vaccine and/or effective vector control) are key to success. The first dengue vaccine was licensed in December 2015, Dengvaxia® (CYD-TDV) developed by Sanofi Pasteur. The WHO has provided guidance on the use of CYD-TDV in endemic countries, for which there are a variety of considerations beyond the risk-benefit evaluation done by regulatory authorities, including public health impact and cost-effectiveness. Population-level vaccine impact and economic and financial aspects are two issues that can potentially be considered by means of mathematical modelling, especially for new products for which empirical data are still lacking. In December 2014 a meeting was convened by the WHO in order to revisit the current status of dengue transmission models and their utility for public health decision-making. Here, we report on the main points of discussion and the conclusions of this meeting, as well as next steps for maximising the use of mathematical models for vaccine decision-making. PMID:27461457

  7. Assessing dengue vaccination impact: Model challenges and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recker, Mario; Vannice, Kirsten; Hombach, Joachim; Jit, Mark; Simmons, Cameron P

    2016-08-31

    In response to the sharp rise in the global burden caused by dengue virus (DENV) over the last few decades, the WHO has set out three specific key objectives in its disease control strategy: (i) to estimate the true burden of dengue by 2015; (ii) a reduction in dengue mortality by at least 50% by 2020 (used as a baseline); and (iii) a reduction in dengue morbidity by at least 25% by 2020. Although various elements will all play crucial parts in achieving this goal, from diagnosis and case management to integrated surveillance and outbreak response, sustainable vector control, vaccine implementation and finally operational and implementation research, it seems clear that new tools (e.g. a safe and effective vaccine and/or effective vector control) are key to success. The first dengue vaccine was licensed in December 2015, Dengvaxia® (CYD-TDV) developed by Sanofi Pasteur. The WHO has provided guidance on the use of CYD-TDV in endemic countries, for which there are a variety of considerations beyond the risk-benefit evaluation done by regulatory authorities, including public health impact and cost-effectiveness. Population-level vaccine impact and economic and financial aspects are two issues that can potentially be considered by means of mathematical modelling, especially for new products for which empirical data are still lacking. In December 2014 a meeting was convened by the WHO in order to revisit the current status of dengue transmission models and their utility for public health decision-making. Here, we report on the main points of discussion and the conclusions of this meeting, as well as next steps for maximising the use of mathematical models for vaccine decision-making.

  8. Potential Impact of the National Plan for Future Electric Power Supply on Air Quality in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shim, C.; Hong, J.

    2014-12-01

    Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) announced the national plan for Korea's future electric power supply (2013 - 2027) in 2013. According to the plan, the national demand for electricity will be increased by 60% compared to that of 2010 and primary energy sources for electric generation will still lean on the fossil fuels such as petroleum, LNG, and coal, which would be a potential threat to air quality of Korea. This study focused on two subjects: (1) How the spatial distribution of the primary air pollutant's emissions (i.e., NOx, SOx, CO, PM) will be changed and (2) How the primary emission changes will influence on the national ambient air quality including ozone in 2027. We used GEOS-Chem model simulation with modification of Korean emissions inventory (Clean Air Policy Support System (CAPSS)) to simulate the current and future air quality in Korea. The national total emissions of CO, NOx, SOx, PM in year 2027 will be increased by 3%, 8%, 13%, 2%, respectively compared to 2010 and there are additional concern that the future location of the power plants will be closer to the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), where there are approximately 20 million population vulnerable to the potentially worsened air quality. While there are slight increase of concentration of CO, NOx, SOx, and PM in 2027, the O3 concentration is expected to be similar to the level of 2010. Those results may imply the characteristics of air pollution in East Asia such as potentially severe O3 titration and poorer O3/CO or O3/NOx ratio. Furthermore, we will discuss on the impact of transboundary pollution transport from China in the future, which is one of the large factors to control the air quality of Korea.

  9. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS AND PROBLEMS: AGRICULTURAL USE OF APPLIED GENETICS AND BIOTECHNOLOGIES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battelle's Columbus Laboratories will identify and define future environmental concerns arising from applying genetic engineering technology to agricultural problems. Two genetic emgineering technologies, plant tissue culture and recombinant DNA, will be considered. Potential env...

  10. Assessing the Impact of Saltwater Intrusion in the Carolinas under Future Climatic and Sea Level Conditions

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The goal of this research is to support coastal decision-makers in North Carolina and South Carolina by providing information about potential future precipitation...

  11. Organ assessment and repair centers: The future of transplantation is near

    OpenAIRE

    Whitson, Bryan A.; Black, Sylvester M.

    2014-01-01

    Solid organ transplantation is limited by suitable donor organ availability and the geographic limitations that lead to prolonged ischemic times. Ex vivo organ perfusion is an evolving technology that enables assessment of organ function prior to transplantation. As a byproduct, overall out of body organ times are able to be extended. The future implications organ assessment and repair centers utilizing this technology are discussed.

  12. Ecological models for regulatory risk assessments of pesticides: Developing a strategy for the future.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thorbek, P.; Forbes, V.; Heimbach, F.; Hommen, U.; Thulke, H.H.; Brink, van den P.J.

    2010-01-01

    Ecological Models for Regulatory Risk Assessments of Pesticides: Developing a Strategy for the Future provides a coherent, science-based view on ecological modeling for regulatory risk assessments. It discusses the benefits of modeling in the context of registrations, identifies the obstacles that p

  13. Engineered nanomaterial risk. Lessons learnt from completed nanotoxicology studies: potential solutions to current and future challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Helinor; Pojana, Giulio; Zuin, Stefano; Jacobsen, Nicklas Raun; Møller, Peter; Loft, Steffen; Semmler-Behnke, Manuela; McGuiness, Catherine; Balharry, Dominique; Marcomini, Antonio; Wallin, Håkan; Kreyling, Wolfgang; Donaldson, Ken; Tran, Lang; Stone, Vicki

    2013-01-01

    PARTICLE_RISK was one of the first multidisciplinary projects funded by the European Commission's Framework Programme that was responsible for evaluating the implications of nanomaterial (NM) exposure on human health. This project was the basis for this review which identifies the challenges that exist within the assessment of NM risk. We have retrospectively reflected on the findings of completed nanotoxicology studies to consider what progress and advances have been made within the risk assessment of NMs, as well as discussing the direction that nanotoxicology research is taking and identifying the limitations and failings of existing research. We have reflected on what commonly encountered challenges exist and explored how these issues may be resolved. In particular, the following is discussed (i) NM selection (ii) NM physico-chemical characterisation; (iii) NM dispersion; (iv) selection of relevant doses and concentrations; (v) identification of relevant models, target sites and endpoints; (vi) development of alternatives to animal testing; and (vii) NM risk assessment. These knowledge gaps are relatively well recognised by the scientific community and recommendations as to how they may be overcome in the future are provided. It is hoped that this will help develop better defined hypothesis driven research in the future that will enable comprehensive risk assessments to be conducted for NMs. Importantly, the nanotoxicology community has responded and adapted to advances in knowledge over recent years to improve the approaches used to assess NM hazard, exposure and risk. It is vital to learn from existing information provided by ongoing or completed studies to avoid unnecessary duplication of effort, and to offer guidance on aspects of the experimental design that should be carefully considered prior to the start of a new study. PMID:23126553

  14. An assessment of wind energy potential in Iberia under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Santos, João A.; Rochinha, Carlos; Reyers, Mark; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2015-04-01

    Wind energy potential in Iberia is assessed for recent-past (1961-2000) and future (2041-2070) climates. For recent-past, a COSMO-CLM simulation driven by ERA-40 is used. COSMO-CLM simulations driven by ECHAM5 following the A1B scenario are used for future projections. A 2 MW rated power wind turbine is selected. Mean potentials, inter-annual variability and irregularity are discussed on annual/seasonal scales and on a grid resolution of 20 km. For detailed regional assessments eight target sites are considered. For recent-past conditions, the highest daily mean potentials are found in winter over northern and eastern Iberia, particularly on high-elevation or coastal regions. In northwestern Iberia, daily potentials frequently reach maximum wind energy output (50 MWh day-1), particularly in winter. Southern Andalucía reveals high potentials throughout the year, whereas the Ebro valley and central-western coast show high potentials in summer. The irregularity in annual potentials is moderate (2 MWh day-1). The northward displacement of North Atlantic westerly winds (autumn-spring) and the strengthening of easterly flows (summer) are key drivers of future projections. Santos, J.A.; Rochinha, C.; Liberato, M.L.R.; Reyers, M.; Pinto, J.G. (2015) Projected changes in wind energy potentials over Iberia. Renewable Energy, 75, 1: 68-80. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2014.09.026 Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

  15. Meeting the demand. An estimation of potential future greenhouse gas emissions from meat production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fiala, Nathan [Department of Economics, University of California, Irvine, 3151 Social Science Plaza, Irvine, CA 92697-5100 (United States)

    2008-10-15

    Current production processes for meat products have been shown to have a significant impact on the environment, accounting for between 15% and 24% of current greenhouse gas emissions. Meat consumption has been increasing at a fantastic rate and is likely to continue to do so into the future. If this demand is to be met, technology used in production in the form of Confined Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs) will need to be expanded. This paper estimates future meat consumption and discusses the potential aggregate environmental impact of this production if the use of CAFOs is expanded. I first separate meat into beef, chicken and pig products and estimate the elasticities associated with each product in order to forecast the world demand for meat. Using research on the environmental impact of food production in the US, which uses one of the most efficient CAFO processes in the world, I then calculate the total potential greenhouse emissions of this meat production and discuss the impact of these consumption patterns. I find that, under an expanded CAFO system, meat production in the future will still be a large producer of greenhouse gases, accounting for up to 6.3% of current greenhouse gas emissions in 2030. (author)

  16. The Potential of Mobile Phones to Transform Teacher Professional Development to Build Sustainable Educational Futures in Bangladesh

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher S Walsh; Woodward, Clare; Solly, Michael; Shrestha, Prithvi

    2015-01-01

    Futures thinking is used by governments to consider long-term strategic approaches and develop policies and practices that are potentially resilient to future uncertainty. English in Action (EIA), arguably the world’s largest English language teacher professional development (TPD) project, used futures thinking to author possible, probable and preferable future scenarios to solve the project’s greatest technological challenge: how to deliver audio-visual TPD materials and hundreds of classroo...

  17. Virtual water content of temperate cereals and maize: Present and potential future patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fader, Marianela; Rost, Stefanie; Müller, Christoph; Bondeau, Alberte; Gerten, Dieter

    2010-04-01

    SummaryKnowledge of the virtual water content (VWC) of crops and especially its possible future developments is helpful for improvements in water productivity and water management, which are necessary at global scale due to rising demand for food, the necessity to ease present and future water scarcity, and the reduction of poverty. Using a dynamic global vegetation and water balance model (LPJmL), this study quantifies the VWC of two of the most important crop types worldwide, temperate cereals and maize, at high spatial resolution (0.5°). We analyzed present conditions (1999-2003) and also for the first time also for scenarios of future climate and increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations (2041-2070; HadCM3, ECHAM5 and CCSM3 climate models, A2 emissions scenario). VWC presently differs significantly among regions: highest values are common in large parts of Africa (>2 m 3 kg -1), and lowest values were found e.g. for Central Europe (globally the water-use efficiency is projected to increase, many regions—including parts of the US, East and Mediterranean Europe, South Africa, Argentina, Australia and South East Asia—are projected to become less water efficient (higher VWC) for at least one of the crop types. CO 2 fertilisation was simulated to generally reduce VWC, though realisation of this effect in the field will depend, for example, on the intensity of nutrient management in the future. The potentially adverse future changes in VWC found here pose a challenge to water management efforts and eventually global trade policies.

  18. Portfolio assessments for future generation investment in newly industrializing countries – A case study of Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper assesses future electricity generation portfolios in Thailand in 2030 given uncertain future fossil-fuel prices, carbon pricing policies, electricity demand, and capital costs. Thailand faces challenges for generation investment given its rapid socio-economic progress and fast growing demand. A novel generation investment and planning decision-support tool which incorporates a Monte Carlo extension to conventional optimal generation mix methods combined with portfolio-based analysis techniques, is used. The tool can formally assess tradeoffs between expected future generation costs, cost uncertainties, and CO2 emissions for the range of different generation portfolios. Results highlight that different levels of future carbon pricing will have significant impacts on the most appropriate generation portfolios. The impact of carbon pricing, however, is not on the appropriate proportion of combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT) in the mix but, instead, on the future role of coal versus nuclear in Thailand. Compared with the current proposed 2030 generation mix, it is possible that there are other generation portfolios that offer lower expected costs, cost uncertainty, and CO2 emissions depending on future carbon pricing. Results suggest that this investment decision-support approach may have value for electric utilities and policy-makers contemplating significant generation investments under high future uncertainty and conflicting policy objectives. -- Highlights: ► Assess Thailand's future generation portfolios in 2030 under uncertainties. ► Future carbon prices have significant impacts on the appropriate generation mixes. ► Carbon pricing affects the future role of coal versus nuclear in Thailand. ► There may be more appropriate alternatives than the proposed 2030 generation mix. ► This decision-support approach has value for utility and policy decision-making.

  19. The Service-Bond Paradigm - Potentials for a Sustainable, ICT-enabled Future

    OpenAIRE

    Moghaddam, Reza Farrahi; Lemieux, Yves; Cheriet, Mohamed

    2015-01-01

    The service paradigm as we know it has gone through a long journey of evolution and improvement, and it seems that a service-oriented vision to activities in general could serve as a potential platform for the global transition to a sustainable future. However, it is also apparent that the services themselves are required to move beyond their traditional definition in order to prevent any secondary side effect. Here, a new paradigm is proposed based on bonding between entities involved in a s...

  20. Theoretical Assessment of Technological Potential of Magnetic and Electrical Separation

    OpenAIRE

    Karmazin, V. V.

    1997-01-01

    Magnetic, electrical an combined methods of mineral beneficiation are widely used in various branches of mining industry. These processes have significant economic and ecological advantages in those areas where they can be applied technologically. It is thus necessary to analyse technological possibilities and areas of potential applications. Different designs of the separators must also be considered. Such an attempt is being done in this article based on the assessment of the level of diffe...

  1. Designing an Index for Assessing Wind Energy Potential

    OpenAIRE

    Ritter, Matthias; Shen, Zhiwei; López Cabrera, Brenda; Odening, Martin; Deckert, Lars

    2014-01-01

    To meet the increasing global demand for renewable energy such as wind energy, more and more new wind parks are installed worldwide. Finding a suitable location, however, requires a detailed and often costly analysis of the local wind conditions. Plain average wind speed maps cannot provide a precise forecast of wind power because of the non-linear relationship between wind speed and production. In this paper, we suggest a new approach of assessing the local wind energy potential: Meteorologi...

  2. Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

  3. The emerging era of pharmacogenomics: current successes, future potential, and challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, J W; Aminkeng, F; Bhavsar, A P; Shaw, K; Carleton, B C; Hayden, M R; Ross, C J D

    2014-07-01

    The vast range of genetic diversity contributes to a wonderful array of human traits and characteristics. Unfortunately, a consequence of this genetic diversity is large variability in drug response between people, meaning that no single medication is safe and effective in everyone. The debilitating and sometimes deadly consequences of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) are a major and unmet problem of modern medicine. Pharmacogenomics can uncover associations between genetic variation and drug safety and has the potential to predict ADRs in individual patients. Here we review pharmacogenomic successes leading to changes in clinical practice, as well as clinical areas probably to be impacted by pharmacogenomics in the near future. We also discuss some of the challenges, and potential solutions, that remain for the implementation of pharmacogenomic testing into clinical practice for the significant improvement of drug safety.

  4. Chemical conditions in present and future ecosystems in Forsmark - implications for selected radionuclides in the safety assessment SR-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Troejbom, Mats (Mats Troejbom Konsult AB (Sweden)); Grolander, Sara (Facilia AB (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    This report is a background report for the biosphere analysis of the SR-Site Safety Assessment. This work aims to describe the future development of the chemical conditions at Forsmark, based on the present chemical conditions at landscape level taking landscape development and climate cases into consideration. The results presented contribute to the overall understanding of the present and future chemistry in the Forsmark area, and specifically, to the understanding of the behaviour of some selected radionuclides in the surface system. The future development of the chemistry at the site is qualitatively discussed with focus on the interglacial within the next 10,000 years. The effects on the chemical environment of future climate cases as Global Warming and cold permafrost climates are also briefly discussed. The work is presented in two independent parts describing background radionuclide activities in the Forsmark area and the distribution and behaviour of a large number of stable elements in the landscape. In a concluding section, implications of the future chemical environment of a selection of radionuclides important in the Safety Assessment are discussed based on the knowledge of stable elements. The broad range of elements studied show that there are general and expected patterns for the distribution and behaviour in the landscape of different groups of elements. Mass balances reveal major sources and sinks, pool estimations show where elements are accumulated in the landscape and estimations of time-scales give indications of the potential future development. This general knowledge is transferred to radionuclides not measured in order to estimate their behaviour and distribution in the landscape. It could be concluded that the future development of the chemical environment in the Forsmark area might affect element specific parameters used in de radionuclide model in different directions depending on element. The alternative climate cases, Global Warming

  5. Malaria transmission potential could be reduced with current and future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murdock, C. C.; Sternberg, E. D.; Thomas, M. B.

    2016-01-01

    Several studies suggest the potential for climate change to increase malaria incidence in cooler, marginal transmission environments. However, the effect of increasing temperature in warmer regions where conditions currently support endemic transmission has received less attention. We investigate how increases in temperature from optimal conditions (27 °C to 30 °C and 33 °C) interact with realistic diurnal temperature ranges (DTR: ± 0 °C, 3 °C, and 4.5 °C) to affect the ability of key vector species from Africa and Asia (Anopheles gambiae and An. stephensi) to transmit the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum. The effects of increasing temperature and DTR on parasite prevalence, parasite intensity, and mosquito mortality decreased overall vectorial capacity for both mosquito species. Increases of 3 °C from 27 °C reduced vectorial capacity by 51–89% depending on species and DTR, with increases in DTR alone potentially halving transmission. At 33 °C, transmission potential was further reduced for An. stephensi and blocked completely in An. gambiae. These results suggest that small shifts in temperature could play a substantial role in malaria transmission dynamics, yet few empirical or modeling studies consider such effects. They further suggest that rather than increase risk, current and future warming could reduce transmission potential in existing high transmission settings. PMID:27324146

  6. The Physiology, Pathology, and Pharmacology of Voltage-Gated Calcium Channels and Their Future Therapeutic Potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamponi, Gerald W; Striessnig, Joerg; Koschak, Alexandra; Dolphin, Annette C

    2015-10-01

    Voltage-gated calcium channels are required for many key functions in the body. In this review, the different subtypes of voltage-gated calcium channels are described and their physiologic roles and pharmacology are outlined. We describe the current uses of drugs interacting with the different calcium channel subtypes and subunits, as well as specific areas in which there is strong potential for future drug development. Current therapeutic agents include drugs targeting L-type Ca(V)1.2 calcium channels, particularly 1,4-dihydropyridines, which are widely used in the treatment of hypertension. T-type (Ca(V)3) channels are a target of ethosuximide, widely used in absence epilepsy. The auxiliary subunit α2δ-1 is the therapeutic target of the gabapentinoid drugs, which are of value in certain epilepsies and chronic neuropathic pain. The limited use of intrathecal ziconotide, a peptide blocker of N-type (Ca(V)2.2) calcium channels, as a treatment of intractable pain, gives an indication that these channels represent excellent drug targets for various pain conditions. We describe how selectivity for different subtypes of calcium channels (e.g., Ca(V)1.2 and Ca(V)1.3 L-type channels) may be achieved in the future by exploiting differences between channel isoforms in terms of sequence and biophysical properties, variation in splicing in different target tissues, and differences in the properties of the target tissues themselves in terms of membrane potential or firing frequency. Thus, use-dependent blockers of the different isoforms could selectively block calcium channels in particular pathologies, such as nociceptive neurons in pain states or in epileptic brain circuits. Of important future potential are selective Ca(V)1.3 blockers for neuropsychiatric diseases, neuroprotection in Parkinson's disease, and resistant hypertension. In addition, selective or nonselective T-type channel blockers are considered potential therapeutic targets in epilepsy, pain, obesity, sleep

  7. Radar imagery interpretation to assess the hydrocarbon potential of four sites in the Philippines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1988-11-17

    The Republic of the Philippines is intensely interested in the identification, development, and conservation of natural resources. In keeping with this, the Government of the Philippines has recently completed a nationwide sedimentary basin evaluation program to assess hydrocarbon potential and assist in future exploration activities. This program of collection and interpretation of the radar imagery was designed to augment and complement the existing data base. The primary objective of the project was to further the goals of international energy development by aiding the Republic of the Philippines in the assessment of potential petroleum and geothermal prospects within the areas imaged. Secondary goals were to assist the Republic of the Philippines in utilizing state-of-the-art radar remote sensing technology for resource exploration, and to train key Philippines scientists in the use of imaging radar data. 29 refs., 30 figs., 14 tabs.

  8. Policy Research Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Impacts of Urban Expansion into Farmlands and Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanley V. Gregory

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of urban land uses into farmlands and forests requires an assessment of future ecological impacts. Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies. When modeling complex adaptive systems, both the methods used to interpret results and the standards of rigor used to judge adequacy are complicated and require additional research. Recent studies suggest that it would be appropriate to use these models as an extension of exploratory analysis. This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about potential changes to the system. In this study, we develop understanding of the potential alternative futures for a social-ecological system by way of successive simulations that test variations in the types and numbers of policies. The model addresses the agricultural-urban interface and the preservation of ecosystem services. The landscape analyzed is at the junction of the McKenzie and Willamette Rivers adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield in Lane County, Oregon. Our exploration of alternative future scenarios suggests that policies that constrain urban growth and create incentives for farming and forest enterprises to preserve and enhance habitat can protect ecosystem resilience and services.

  9. THE POTENTIAL OF BIOCHEMISTRY EDUCATION APPS IN THE FORMATIVE ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. L. Oliveira

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and objectives: Apps can be designed to provide usage data, and most of them do. These data are usually used to map users interests and to deliver more effective ads that are more likely to result in clicks, and sales. We have applied some of these metrics to understand how can it be used to map students’ behavior and to promote a formative assessment using educational software. The purpose of a formative assessment is to monitor student learning to provide ongoing feedback that can be used by instructors and students to improve the teaching and learning process. Thus, this modality aims to help both students and instructors to identify strengths and weaknesses that need to be developed. This study aimed to describe the potential of educational apps in the formative assessment process. Material and Methods: We have implemented assessment tools embedded in three apps (ARMET, The Cell and 3D Class used to teach: 1 Metabolic Pathways; 2 Scale of the cellular structures, and 3 Concepts from techniques used in a Biochemistry Lab course. The implemented tools allow to verify on what issues there were recurring mistakes, the total number of mistakes presented, which questions they most achieved, how long they took to perform the activity and other relevant information. Results and conclusion: Educational apps can provide transparent and coherent evaluation metrics to enable instructors to systematize more consistent criteria and indicators, reducing the subjectivity of the formative assessment process and the time spent for preparation, tabulation and analysis of assessment data. This approach allows instructors to understand better where students struggle, giving to them a more effective feedback. It also helps instructor to plan interventions to help students to perform better and to achieve the learning objectives.

  10. Trends and Future Potential of Payment for Ecosystem Services to Alleviate Rural Poverty in Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara J. Scherr

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Payment for ecosystem services (PES is a market-based approach to environmental management that compensates land stewards for ecosystem conservation and restoration. Because low-income households and communities control much of the ecologically sensitive land in developing countries, they potentially stand to gain from PES, as environmentally responsible stewardship is assigned a value by various actors in society. To date, however, instances of PES benefiting the poor have been limited mainly to specific localities, small-scale projects, and a handful of broader government programs. We analyze the size, characteristics, and trends of PES to evaluate its future potential to benefit low-income land stewards in developing countries. We estimate that by the year 2030, markets for biodiversity conservation could benefit 10–15 million low-income households in developing countries, carbon markets could benefit 25–50 million, markets for watershed protection could benefit 80–100 million, and markets for landscape beauty and recreation could benefit 5–8 million. If payments and markets reach these potentials, they could provide a non-negligible contribution to poverty alleviation at the global level.

  11. The potential for snow to supply human water demand in the present and future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mankin, Justin S.; Viviroli, Daniel; Singh, Deepti; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

    2015-11-01

    Runoff from snowmelt is regarded as a vital water source for people and ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Numerous studies point to the threat global warming poses to the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt. But analyses focused on snow supply do not show where changes to snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given sub-annual patterns of human water consumption and water availability from rainfall. We identify the NH basins where present spring and summer snowmelt has the greatest potential to supply the human water demand that would otherwise be unmet by instantaneous rainfall runoff. Using a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections, we find that these basins—which together have a present population of ∼2 billion people—are exposed to a 67% risk of decreased snow supply this coming century. Further, in the multi-model mean, 68 basins (with a present population of >300 million people) transition from having sufficient rainfall runoff to meet all present human water demand to having insufficient rainfall runoff. However, internal climate variability creates irreducible uncertainty in the projected future trends in snow resource potential, with about 90% of snow-sensitive basins showing potential for either increases or decreases over the near-term decades. Our results emphasize the importance of snow for fulfilling human water demand in many NH basins, and highlight the need to account for the full range of internal climate variability in developing robust climate risk management decisions.

  12. Concentrating solar power. Its potential contribution to a sustainable energy future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    detail, much of what is presented in this report on the development of CSP technologies and economics will also be relevant to these alternative applications of CSP. Following a chapter summarising the policy context, the current status of CSP and associated thermal energy storage technologies are described in Chapters 3 and 4. Chapter 5 then discusses the economics of CSP, considering cost reduction potential and consequent time-frames for cost competitiveness, and the value of CSP with storage and/or auxiliary firing in electricity markets. The environmental impacts of CSP are evaluated in Chapter 6 before a review of the potential future contribution of CSP in Europe and the MENA region presented in Chapter 7. Conclusions and recommendations follow, with a bibliography of the references informing this report and annexes providing supporting detail, and a glossary of terms at Annex 2.

  13. An Initial Assessment of the GOES Microburst Windspeed Potential Index

    CERN Document Server

    Pryor, Kenneth L

    2007-01-01

    A suite of products has been developed and evaluated to assess hazards presented by convective downbursts to aircraft in flight derived from the current generation of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite. The existing suite of GOES microburst products employs the GOES sounder to calculate risk based on conceptual models of favorable environmental profiles for convective downburst generation. Large output values of the microburst index algorithms indicate that the ambient thermodynamic structure of the troposphere fits the prototypical environment for each respective microburst type. Accordingly, a new diagnostic nowcasting product, the Microburst Windspeed Potential Index, is derived from merging existing algorithms and designed to infer the presence of sufficient positive buoyancy and a well-developed convective boundary layer. This paper provides an initial assessment of the MWPI algorithm, presents case studies demonstrating effective operational use of the MWPI product, and presents validatio...

  14. The potential optical coherence tomography in tooth bleaching quantitative assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Y. R.; Guo, Z. Y.; Shu, S. Y.; Zeng, C. C.; Zhong, H. Q.; Chen, B. L.; Liu, Z. M.; Bao, Y.

    2011-12-01

    In this paper, we report the outcomes from a pilot study on using OCT functional imaging method to evaluate and quantify color alteration in the human teeth in vitro. The image formations of the dental tissues without and with treatment 35% hydrogen peroxide were obtained by an OCT system at a 1310 nm central wavelength. One parameter for the quantification of optical properties from OCT measurements is introduced in our study: attenuate coefficient (μ). And the attenuate coefficient have significant decrease ( p bleaching process. From the experimental results, it is found that attenuate coefficient could be useful to assess color alteration of the human tooth samples. OCT has a potential to become an effective tool for the assessment tooth bleaching. And our experiment offer a now method to evaluate color change in visible region by quantitative analysis of the infrared region information from OCT.

  15. The quantification of environmental indicators for sustainability assessment of future electricity supply options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Within the project NEEDS (New Energy Externalities Development for Sustainability) a range of criteria and indicators were defined according to the widely recognised 'three pillar' interpretation of sustainable development in order to assess future electricity generating technologies including their associated fuel cycles. The basic characteristics of the 26 technologies were defined as being appropriate in 2050 according to 'realistic/optimistic' development scenarios. The potential environmental impacts of each technology were assessed by initially determining the various criteria necessary to describe the range of significant impact areas. These criteria were then expressed and measured by one or more quantifiable indicators which were calculated using Life Cycle Inventories established earlier in the project. This report contributed to Research Stream RS2b of the project by quantifying and comparing the results of these indicators for each of the four countries used in the assessment: France, Germany, Switzerland and Italy. The environmental assessment showed that the nuclear technologies cause relatively very low impacts according to most of the indicators. The Generation IV, European Fast Reactor, has significant advantages over the European Pressurised Reactor but the availabilities of the two reactors will be quite different. Whereas the first examples of the EPR are already under construction, the design finalisation of the EFR is not yet complete meaning that the first plant is not expected to be constructed before 2040. An overarching and clear distinction between the fossil fueled technologies was less possible and the application of carbon capture and storage, whilst showing large reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, was shown to be counteracted in a number of other indicators. The integration of solid fuel gasification prior to combustion also showed both benefits and disadvantages. For most indicators, the natural gas combined cycle options

  16. Neural Correlates of Self-Appraisals in the Near and Distant Future: An Event-Related Potential Study

    OpenAIRE

    Yangmei Luo; Todd Jackson; Xiaogang Wang; Xiting Huang

    2013-01-01

    To investigate perceptual and neural correlates of future self-appraisals as a function of temporal distance, event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded while participants (11 women, eight men) made judgments about the applicability of trait adjectives to their near future selves (i.e., one month from now) and their distant future selves (i.e., three years from now). Behavioral results indicated people used fewer positive adjectives, more negative adjectives, recalled more specific events ...

  17. Current Clinical Applications and Future Potential of Diffusion Tensor Imaging in Traumatic Brain Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauss, Sara; Hulkower, Miriam; Gulko, Edwin; Zampolin, Richard L; Gutman, David; Chitkara, Munish; Zughaft, Malka; Lipton, Michael L

    2015-12-01

    In the setting of acute central nervous system (CNS) emergencies, computed tomography (CT) and conventional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) play an important role in the identification of life-threatening intracranial injury. However, the full extent or even presence of brain damage frequently escapes detection by conventional CT and MRI. Advanced MRI techniques such as diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) are emerging as important adjuncts in the diagnosis of microstructural white matter injury in the acute and postacute brain-injured patient. Although DTI aids in detection of brain injury pathology, which has been repeatedly associated with typical adverse clinical outcomes, the evolution of acute changes and their long-term prognostic implications are less clear and the subject of much active research. A major aim of current research is to identify imaging-based biomarkers that can identify the subset of TBI patients who are at risk for adverse outcome and can therefore most benefit from ongoing care and rehabilitation as well as future therapeutic interventions.The aim of this study is to introduce the current methods used to obtain DTI in the clinical setting, describe a set of common interpretation strategies with their associated advantages and pitfalls, as well as illustrate the clinical utility of DTI through a set of specific patient scenarios. We conclude with a discussion of future potential for the management of TBI.

  18. Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Amanda; Kumar, Sunil; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

    2016-01-01

    Regional analysis of large wildfire potential given climate change scenarios is crucial to understanding areas most at risk in the future, yet wildfire models are not often developed and tested at this spatial scale. We fit three historical climate suitability models for large wildfires (i.e. ≥ 400 ha) in Colorado andWyoming using topography and decadal climate averages corresponding to wildfire occurrence at the same temporal scale. The historical models classified points of known large wildfire occurrence with high accuracies. Using a novel approach in wildfire modeling, we applied the historical models to independent climate and wildfire datasets, and the resulting sensitivities were 0.75, 0.81, and 0.83 for Maxent, Generalized Linear, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, respectively. We projected the historic models into future climate space using data from 15 global circulation models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Maps from these geospatial analyses can be used to evaluate the changing spatial distribution of climate suitability of large wildfires in these states. April relative humidity was the most important covariate in all models, providing insight to the climate space of large wildfires in this region. These methods incorporate monthly and seasonal climate averages at a spatial resolution relevant to land management (i.e. 1 km2) and provide a tool that can be modified for other regions of North America, or adapted for other parts of the world.

  19. NASA's Vision for Potential Energy Reduction from Future Generations of Propulsion Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haller, Bill

    2015-01-01

    Through a robust partnership with the aviation industry, over the past 50 years NASA programs have helped foster advances in propulsion technology that enabled substantial reductions in fuel consumption for commercial transports. Emerging global trends and continuing environmental concerns are creating challenges that will very likely transform the face of aviation over the next 20-40 years. In recognition of this development, NASA Aeronautics has established a set of Research Thrusts that will help define the future direction of the agency's research technology efforts. Two of these thrusts, Ultra-Efficient Commercial Vehicles and Transition to Low-Carbon Propulsion, serve as cornerstones for the Advanced Air Transport Technology (AATT) project. The AATT project is exploring and developing high-payoff technologies and concepts that are key to continued improvement in energy efficiency and environmental compatibility for future generations of fixed-wing, subsonic transports. The AATT project is primarily focused on the N+3 timeframe, or 3 generations from current technology levels. As should be expected, many of the propulsion system architectures technologies envisioned for N+3 vary significantly from todays engines. The use of batteries in a hybrid-electric configuration or deploying multiple fans distributed across the airframe to enable higher bypass ratios are just two examples of potential advances that could enable substantial energy reductions over current propulsion systems.

  20. Future climate variability impacts on potential erosion and soil organic carbon in European croplands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. van der Velde

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the impact of future climate variability on the potential vulnerability of soils to erosion and the consequences for soil organic carbon (SOC in European croplands. Soil erosion is an important carbon flux not characterized in Earth System Models. We use a~European implementation of EPIC, driven by reference climate data (CNTRL, and climate data with reduced variability (REDVAR. Whether erosion regimes will change across European cropland depends on the spatial conjunction of expected changes in climate variability and physiographic conditions conducive to erosion. We isolated the effect of erosion by performing simulations with and without erosion. Median CNTRL and REDVAR erosion rates equalled 14.4 and 9.1 ton ha−1, and 19.1 and 9.7, for 1981–2010 and 2071–2100, respectively. The total amount of carbon lost from European cropland due to erosion was estimated at 769 Tg C for 1981–2010 (from a total storage of 6197 Tg C without erosion under CNTRL climate. Climate trend impacts reduce the European cropland SOC stock by 578 Tg C without – and by 683 Tg C with erosion, from 1981 to 2100. Climate variability compounds these impacts and decreases the stock by an estimated 170 Tg without erosion and by 314 Tg C with erosion, by the end of the century. Future climate variability and erosion will thus compound impacts on SOC stocks arising from gradual climate change alone.

  1. Risk Informed Assessment of Regulatory and Design Requirements for Future Nuclear Power Plants - Final Technical Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ritterbusch, Stanley; Golay, Michael; Duran, Felicia; Galyean, William; Gupta, Abhinav; Dimitrijevic, Vesna; Malsch, Marty

    2003-01-29

    OAK B188 Summary of methods proposed for risk informing the design and regulation of future nuclear power plants. All elements of the historical design and regulation process are preserved, but the methods proposed for new plants use probabilistic risk assessment methods as the primary decision making tool.

  2. "Assessment of Potentially-Efficient DC-AC Converter Architectures"

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chapman, Jamie

    2004-04-29

    Two alternate and potentially-efficient power electronic architectures are assessed and compared with a conventional, three-phase, voltage-source converter. The comparisons are in terms of a 750 kVA converter as might be used with a variable-speed wind turbine or a photovoltaic array, The two architectures are projected to cost 1.15 and 1.39 times the comparable (factory) cost of the conventional system. However the present value of the recovered energy stream may justify the added cost.

  3. Ambient new particle formation parameter indicates potential rise in future events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Bonn

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric new particle formation is a general phenomenon observed over coniferous forests. So far nucleation is described as a function of gaseous sulfuric acid concentration only, which is unable to explain the observed seasonality of nucleation events at different measurement sites. Here we introduce a new nucleation parameter including ozone and water vapor concentrations as well as UV-B radiation as a proxy for OH radical formation. Applying this new parameter to field studies conducted at Finnish and German measurement sites it is found capable to predict the occurrence of nucleation events and their seasonal and annual variation indicating a significant role of organics. Extrapolation to possible future conditions of ozone, water vapor and organic concentrations leads to a significant potential increase in nucleation event number.

  4. Exploration fuel : new computer modelling system allows exploration of Canada's potential energy future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Without significant development of Canada's unconventional gas supplies and a reduction in Canada's natural gas use, Canada will become a net importer of natural gas by 2023, a fact which will have a major impact on oil sands production. This article described a computer model designed to consider Canada's potential energy future in relation to both natural gas supply and demand without considering price. The modelling study showed that new technologies are needed to reduce the amounts of energy used to produce Canada's oil sands resources. Methods such as toe-to-heel air injection (THAI) will provide a more efficient alternative to steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD). The Canadian energy systems simulator (CanESS) was designed to interconnect up to 800 variables, and incorporates data points from Statistics Canada. The model is comprised of quantitative data and a physical economy model. It was concluded that the model can be used to explore the implications of energy policy options. 2 fig

  5. Current status and future potential of energy derived from Chinese agricultural land: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Ningning; Mao, Chunlan; Feng, Yongzhong; Zhang, Tong; Xing, Zhenjie; Wang, Yanhong; Zou, Shuzhen; Yin, Dongxue; Han, Xinhui; Ren, Guangxin; Yang, Gaihe

    2015-01-01

    Energy crisis is receiving attention with regard to the global economy and environmental sustainable development. Developing new energy resources to optimize the energy supply structure has become an important measure to prevent energy shortage as well as achieving energy conservation and emission reduction in China. This study proposed the concept of energy agriculture and constructed an energy agricultural technical support system based on the analysis of energy supply and demand and China's foreign dependence on energy resources, combined with the function of agriculture in the energy field. Manufacturing technology equipment and agricultural and forestry energy, including crop or forestry plants and animal feces, were used in the system. The current status and future potential of China's marginal land resources, energy crop germplasm resources, and agricultural and forestry waste energy-oriented resources were analyzed. Developing the function of traditional agriculture in food production may promote China's social, economic, and environmental sustainable development and achieve energy saving and emission reduction.

  6. Current status and future potential of energy derived from Chinese agricultural land: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Ningning; Mao, Chunlan; Feng, Yongzhong; Zhang, Tong; Xing, Zhenjie; Wang, Yanhong; Zou, Shuzhen; Yin, Dongxue; Han, Xinhui; Ren, Guangxin; Yang, Gaihe

    2015-01-01

    Energy crisis is receiving attention with regard to the global economy and environmental sustainable development. Developing new energy resources to optimize the energy supply structure has become an important measure to prevent energy shortage as well as achieving energy conservation and emission reduction in China. This study proposed the concept of energy agriculture and constructed an energy agricultural technical support system based on the analysis of energy supply and demand and China's foreign dependence on energy resources, combined with the function of agriculture in the energy field. Manufacturing technology equipment and agricultural and forestry energy, including crop or forestry plants and animal feces, were used in the system. The current status and future potential of China's marginal land resources, energy crop germplasm resources, and agricultural and forestry waste energy-oriented resources were analyzed. Developing the function of traditional agriculture in food production may promote China's social, economic, and environmental sustainable development and achieve energy saving and emission reduction. PMID:25874229

  7. A Potential Transmitter Architecture for Future Generation Green Wireless Base Station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike Faulkner

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Current radio frequency power amplifiers in 3G base stations have very high power consumption leading to a hefty cost and negative environmental impact. In this paper, we propose a potential architecture design for future wireless base station. Issues associated with components of the architecture are investigated. The all-digital transmitter architecture uses a combination of envelope elimination and restoration (EER and pulse width modulation (PWM/pulse position modulation (PPM modulation. The performance of this architecture is predicted from the measured output power and efficiency curves of a GaN amplifier. 57% efficiency is obtained for an OFDM signal limited to 8 dB peak to average power ratio. The PWM/PPM drive signal is generated using the improved Cartesian sigma delta techniques. It is shown that an RF oversampling by a factor of four meets the WLAN spectral mask, and WCDMA specification is met by an RF oversampling of sixteen.

  8. Future Potential of Hybrid and Diesel Powertrains in the U.S. Light-duty Vehicle Market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, D.L.

    2004-08-23

    Diesel and hybrid technologies each have the potential to increase light-duty vehicle fuel economy by a third or more without loss of performance, yet these technologies have typically been excluded from technical assessments of fuel economy potential on the grounds that hybrids are too expensive and diesels cannot meet Tier 2 emissions standards. Recently, hybrid costs have come down and the few hybrid makes available are selling well. Diesels have made great strides in reducing particulate and nitrogen oxide emissions, and are likely though not certain to meet future standards. In light of these developments, this study takes a detailed look at the market potential of these two powertrain technologies and their possible impacts on light-duty vehicle fuel economy. A nested multinomial logit model of vehicle choice was calibrated to 2002 model year sales of 930 makes, models and engine-transmission configurations. Based on an assessment of the status and outlook for the two technologies, market shares were predicted for 2008, 2012 and beyond, assuming no additional increase in fuel economy standards or other new policy initiatives. Current tax incentives for hybrids are assumed to be phased out by 2008. Given announced and likely introductions by 2008, hybrids could capture 4-7% and diesels 2-4% of the light-duty market. Based on our best guesses for further introductions, these shares could increase to 10-15% for hybrids and 4-7% for diesels by 2012. The resulting impacts on fleet average fuel economy would be about +2% in 2008 and +4% in 2012. If diesels and hybrids were widely available across vehicle classes, makes, and models, they could capture 40% or more of the light-duty vehicle market.

  9. The Belem Framework for Action: Harnessing the Power and Potential of Adult Learning and Education for a Viable Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adult Learning, 2012

    2012-01-01

    This article presents the Belem Framework for Action. This framework focuses on harnessing the power and potential of adult learning and education for a viable future. This framework begins with a preamble on adult education and towards lifelong learning.

  10. Modelization of the Current and Future Habitat Suitability of Rhododendron ferrugineum Using Potential Snow Accumulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Komac

    Full Text Available Mountain areas are particularly sensitive to climate change. Species distribution models predict important extinctions in these areas whose magnitude will depend on a number of different factors. Here we examine the possible impact of climate change on the Rhododendron ferrugineum (alpenrose niche in Andorra (Pyrenees. This species currently occupies 14.6 km2 of this country and relies on the protection afforded by snow cover in winter. We used high-resolution climatic data, potential snow accumulation and a combined forecasting method to obtain the realized niche model of this species. Subsequently, we used data from the high-resolution Scampei project climate change projection for the A2, A1B and B1 scenarios to model its future realized niche model. The modelization performed well when predicting the species's distribution, which improved when we considered the potential snow accumulation, the most important variable influencing its distribution. We thus obtained a potential extent of about 70.7 km(2 or 15.1% of the country. We observed an elevation lag distribution between the current and potential distribution of the species, probably due to its slow colonization rate and the small-scale survey of seedlings. Under the three climatic scenarios, the realized niche model of the species will be reduced by 37.9-70.1 km(2 by the end of the century and it will become confined to what are today screes and rocky hillside habitats. The particular effects of climate change on seedling establishment, as well as on the species' plasticity and sensitivity in the event of a reduction of the snow cover, could worsen these predictions.

  11. Evaluating stakeholder participation in water management: intermediary outcomes as potential indicators for future resource management outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Gemma; Bloeschl, Guenter; Loucks, Daniel Pete

    2013-04-01

    . Furthermore, failure to achieve intermediary outcomes correlates to failure to achieve resource management outcomes. Evaluating intermediary outcomes leads to both a broader assessment of a programme's achievements at the time of evaluation, and can indicate whether a programme will go on to achieve resource management objectives in the future.

  12. Programmatic Assessment of Potential Induced Radioactivity in Electron Beam Sterilization of Healthcare Products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Mark; Logar, John; Montgomery, Alan; Vrain, Olivier

    2016-08-01

    ISO 11137-1:2006 Sterilization of Healthcare Products-Radiation requires that the potential for induced radioactivity be evaluated for medical devices irradiated with electrons with energy more than 10 MeV. For a manufacturing operation where new devices are being developed, a practical program for making such an evaluation should be engrained in the process, including the device design phase, where selection of materials can make a difference in the potential for activation to occur as a result of the irradiation process. The program, which is based on general assumptions as to the likely activation processes and generalized process assessments is being implemented in three phases: (1) incorporating materials consideration in the design phase, (2) evaluating potential activation empirically, including measurement at the point of irradiation, and (3) implementing routine procedures for the program, including developing a data base of results for consideration in future design efforts. PMID:27356164

  13. Programmatic Assessment of Potential Induced Radioactivity in Electron Beam Sterilization of Healthcare Products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Mark; Logar, John; Montgomery, Alan; Vrain, Olivier

    2016-08-01

    ISO 11137-1:2006 Sterilization of Healthcare Products-Radiation requires that the potential for induced radioactivity be evaluated for medical devices irradiated with electrons with energy more than 10 MeV. For a manufacturing operation where new devices are being developed, a practical program for making such an evaluation should be engrained in the process, including the device design phase, where selection of materials can make a difference in the potential for activation to occur as a result of the irradiation process. The program, which is based on general assumptions as to the likely activation processes and generalized process assessments is being implemented in three phases: (1) incorporating materials consideration in the design phase, (2) evaluating potential activation empirically, including measurement at the point of irradiation, and (3) implementing routine procedures for the program, including developing a data base of results for consideration in future design efforts.

  14. The potential distribution of bioenergy crops in the UK under present and future climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bellarby, Jessica; Smith, Pete (School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, 23 St Machar Drive, Aberdeen AB24 3UU (GB); Freie Universitaet Berlin, Institut fuer Meteorologie, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6-10, 12165 Berlin (DE)); Tuck, Gill; Glendining, Margaret J. (Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Herts AL5 2JQ (GB)); Wattenbach, Martin (School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, 23 St Machar Drive, Aberdeen (GB))

    2010-12-15

    We have predicted the potential distribution of 26 bioenergy crops in the UK, based on the simple model described by Tuck et al. The model has been applied at a 5 km resolution using the UKCIP02 model for scenarios at Low, Medium-Low, Medium-High and High emissions. In the analysis of the results the limitations for crop growth are assigned to elevation, temperature, high and low rainfall. Most of the crops currently grown are predicted to remain prevalent in the UK. A number of crops are suitable for introduction to the UK under a changing climate, whereas others retreat to northern parts of the UK. The greatest changes are expected in England. The simplicity of the model means that it has a relatively high uncertainty, with minor modifications to the model leading to quite different results. Nevertheless, it is well suited for identifying areas and crops that are most likely to be affected by the greatest changes. It has been noted that Miscanthus and Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) willow and poplar, which are currently regarded as highly suitable for UK conditions, may be less suited to southern areas in the future, where, for example, kenaf could have a greater potential. Further investigations are required to reduce uncertainty associated with the projections based on this simple model and to make conclusions more firmly. (author)

  15. Phenotypic and genetic divergence within a single whitefish form - detecting the potential for future divergence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Philipp Emanuel; Eckmann, Reiner; Oppelt, Claus; Behrmann-Godel, Jasminca

    2013-12-01

    Human-induced nutrient input can change the selection regime and lead to the loss of biodiversity. For example, eutrophication caused speciation reversal in polymorphic whitefish populations through a flattening of littoral-pelagic selection gradients. We investigated the current state of phenotypic and genetic diversity in whitefish (Coregonus macrophthalmus) in a newly restored lake whose nutrient load has returned to pre-eutrophication levels and found that whitefish spawning at different depths varied phenotypically and genetically: individuals spawning at shallower depth had fewer gill rakers, faster growth, and a morphology adapted to benthic feeding, and they showed higher degrees of diet specialization than deeper spawning individuals. Microsatellite analyses complemented the phenotype analyses by demonstrating reproductive isolation along different spawning depths. Our results indicate that whitefish still retain or currently regain phenotypic and genetic diversity, which was lost during eutrophication. Hence, the population documented here has a potential for future divergence because natural selection can target phenotypes specialized along re-established littoral-pelagic selection gradients. The biodiversity, however, will have better chances to return if managers acknowledge the evolutionary potential within the local whitefish and adapt fishing and stocking measures. PMID:24478795

  16. Niche conservatism and the future potential range of Epipactis helleborine (Orchidaceae.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Kolanowska

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to evaluate the current distribution of suitable niches for the invasive orchid species, Epipactis helleborine, and to estimate the possibility of its further expansion. Moreover, niche modeling tools were used to explain its rapid expansion in North America and to test the niche conservatism of the species. The maximum entropy method was used to create models of the suitable niche distribution. A database of E. helleborine localities was prepared based on the examination of herbarium specimens, information from electronic databases as well as data gathered during field works. The differences between the niches occupied by native and invasive populations were evaluated using the niche overlap and niche identity test indexes. Moreover, the coverage of the most suitable habitats for the species was measured for three future scenarios as well as for the present time model. Populations of E. helleborine occupy North American west coast habitats very similar to those preferred by native, Eurasian populations, while the expansion in the east coast is related to the niche shift. The created models of suitable niche distribution indicate that the species does not realize its potential niche in the native range. The total surface of the habitats potentially available for E. helleborine will decrease in all climate change scenarios created for 2080.

  17. Reef Fish Survey Techniques: Assessing the Potential for Standardizing Methodologies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zachary R Caldwell

    Full Text Available Dramatic changes in populations of fishes living on coral reefs have been documented globally and, in response, the research community has initiated efforts to assess and monitor reef fish assemblages. A variety of visual census techniques are employed, however results are often incomparable due to differential methodological performance. Although comparability of data may promote improved assessment of fish populations, and thus management of often critically important nearshore fisheries, to date no standardized and agreed-upon survey method has emerged. This study describes the use of methods across the research community and identifies potential drivers of method selection. An online survey was distributed to researchers from academic, governmental, and non-governmental organizations internationally. Although many methods were identified, 89% of survey-based projects employed one of three methods-belt transect, stationary point count, and some variation of the timed swim method. The selection of survey method was independent of the research design (i.e., assessment goal and region of study, but was related to the researcher's home institution. While some researchers expressed willingness to modify their current survey protocols to more standardized protocols (76%, their willingness decreased when methodologies were tied to long-term datasets spanning five or more years. Willingness to modify current methodologies was also less common among academic researchers than resource managers. By understanding both the current application of methods and the reported motivations for method selection, we hope to focus discussions towards increasing the comparability of quantitative reef fish survey data.

  18. Hydrological assessment for mini hydropower potential at Sungai Pahang - Temerloh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sg Pahang at Temerloh was considered for assessment of hydropower potential using hydrological analysis method and hydrological model. The available data related to topography, soil, land use, weather and discharge pertaining to the study catchment were used to characterize the catchment. The characterization was required for water resources hence hydropower assessment. The hydrology of the study catchment was simulated through the model. This hydrological study is required due to the proposed mini hydroelectric power plant at Pulau Temerloh. It is essential to evaluate the existing river flow characteristic and to model the environmental flow assessment of the river. Two rainfalll stations, JPS Temerloh and Pintu Kawalan Paya Kertam Station are selected to develop the Rainfall Intensity Duration frequency (RIDF) Curve to determine the rainfall intensity of the area. Daily river flow were recorded at Sg Pahang at Temerloh and Sg Pahang at Lubok Paku were used to develop the Flow Duration Curve (FDC) to study the characteristic of Sungai Pahang flow. The 7 days low flow with 10 years return period (7Q10 low flow) was obtained using both Gumbel Method and Log Pearson Type III Method. The results from FDC shows that 50% percentage of time the Sg Pahang - Temerloh is exceeded over a historical period is 400 m3/s and 50% percentage of time the Sg Pahang - Lubok Paku is exceeded over a historical period is 650 m3/s. The required environmental flow are set to be 7Q10 low flow which is 64.215 m3/s for Sg Pahang at Temerloh and 79.24 m3/s for Sg Pahang at Lubok Paku. The results show the water resources are abundant and hence boost the mini hydropower potentiality at Sg Pahang.

  19. Performance assessment for future low-level waste disposal facilities at ORNL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper discusses the strategy for waste management on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) and the approach to preparing future performance assessments that has evolved from previous performance assessment studies of low-level radioactive waste disposal on the ORR. The strategy for waste management is based on the concept that waste classification should be determined by performance assessment other than the sources of waste. This dose-based strategy for waste classification and management places special importance on the preparation and interpretation of waste disposal performance assessments for selecting appropriate disposal technologies and developing waste acceptance criteria. Additionally, the challenges to be overcome in the preparation of performance assessments are discussed. 7 refs

  20. Territorial Innovative Potential in Behavioral Assessments of the Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandr Ivanovich Tatarkin

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the article, the essential and formalized definition of the potential of the territory is proved; its innovative part in the “subjectprocess-object” approach to its essential content and impact assessment is determined. The system of mechanisms and institutes of building the regional and territorial innovative potential is elaborated, the most productive directions of its using in the interests of spatial socio-economic development are allocated. Problems of high priority and requiring solutions that are able to increase the effectiveness of territory functioning are identified. The mentioned problems found their reflection and possible solutions at the Gaidar International Economic Forum in Moscow (2015 and at the representative XII Krasnoyarsk Economic Forum, as reflected by the analyses of some forum’s speeches presented in the paper. The shift of priorities in innovative global development during the second part of the 20th century and at the beginning of the 21st century is shown. The results of research and practice of utilizing innovative solutions for the development of some collectives and territories, the spatial structure of regions and the Russian Federation as a whole are investigated and generalized in this paper. The development of the territory and its potential depends on different factors, but the growth of knowledge, intellectual resource and involvement of the population into management process by development and realization of different programs and projects plays the increasing role in current conditions. In the article, the positive sides of the business-project as the main mechanism of the program and project implementation with utilizing market institutes of the public-private partnership (PPP are analyzed. The role of collectives and the population in the increase of innovative activity and system territory development is assessed.

  1. Characterizing the Leaching Behavior of Coal Combustion Residues using the Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF) to Inform Future Management Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abstract for presentation on Characterizing the Leaching Behavior of Coal Combustion Residues using the Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF) to Inform Future Management Decisions. The abstract is attached.

  2. Resource potential of bamboo, challenges and future directions towards sustainable management and utilization in Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Getachew Desalegn

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: Bamboo, the fastest growing and high yielding perennial plant of the world has more than 1500 species and 1500 versatile socio-economic uses and ecological services. Ethiopia has two indigenous bamboo species namely Yushania alpina and Oxytenantheria abyssinica, covering about one million ha with a wide distribution. The objective of this paper is to highlight the potential of bamboo resources, challenges including biodeterioration damage, opportunities and future research directions towards its sustainable management and rational utilization.Area of study: Bamboo resources of EthiopiaMaterial and Methods: Reconnaissance survey was done to some parts of the bamboo growing potential areas in Ethiopia besides the literature review. Main results: The bamboo resource, despite its socio-economic and environmental benefits, currently, in most areas has been under high pressure due to land use changes, bamboo mass- flowering, poor processing with low value addition, and damage by biodeteriorating agents (termites, beetles and fungi. The preservative tests on Ethiopian bamboos revealed low natural durability and highlighted the paramount importance of appropriate protection measures such as Tanalith and vehicles used motor oil to increase durability, service life and rational utilization of bamboo-based products and structures as potential alternative construction and furniture material.Research highlights: Therefore, integrated research and development interventions involving different propagation and managements techniques, harvesting season, processing, value addition including proper seasoning and preservation technologies and marketing are recommended to fill the information and technological gaps on sustainable management and rational utilization of this fast growing and multipurpose bamboo resources in Ethiopia.Key words: Bamboo; challenges; management; socio-economic and environmental significance; utilization.

  3. Potential impacts of topography and prevailing wind direction on future precipitation changes in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsunematsu, N.; Dairaku, K.; Hirano, J.

    2013-12-01

    To investigate future changes in summertime precipitation amounts over the Japanese islands and their relations to the topographical heights, this study analyzed 20 km horizontal grid-spacing regional climate model downscalings of MIROC3.2-hires 20C3M and SRES-A1B scenario data for the periods of 1981-2000 and 2081-2100. Results indicate the remarkable increases in June-July-August mean daily precipitation in the west and south sides (windward sides) of the mountainous regions, especially in western Japan where heavy rainfall is frequently observed in the recent climate. The remarkable increases in summertime precipitation are likely to occur not only in high altitude areas but also at low altitudes. The occurrence frequencies of precipitation greater than 100 mm/day would also increase in such areas. The intensification of southwesterly moist air flows in the lower troposphere is considered to be one of the main causes of those precipitation changes because the intensified southwesterly moist air flows impinging on the western and southern slopes of the mountains can generate stronger upslope flows and well-developed clouds, leading to increased precipitation. Also, the results show that future precipitation changes in the lee sides of the mountainous regions (e.g., the Tokyo metropolitan area) would be comparatively small. These results indicate large influences of topography and prevailing wind direction on future precipitation changes. Acknowledgments: This study was conducted as part of the research subject "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Water Hazard Assessed Using Regional Climate Scenarios in the Tokyo Region' (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention; PI: Koji Dairaku) of Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA) and was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan. We thank the regional climate modeling groups (MRI

  4. Development and validation of an instrument to assess future orientation and resilience in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Maggio, Ilaria; Ginevra, Maria Cristina; Nota, Laura; Soresi, Salvatore

    2016-08-01

    The study is aimed at providing the development and initial validation of the Design My Future (DMF), which may be administered in career counseling and research activities to assess adolescents' future orientation and resilience. Two studies with two independent samples of Italian adolescents were conducted to examine psychometric requisites of DMF. Specifically, in the first study, after developing items and examined the content validity, the factorial structure, reliability and discriminant validity of the DMF were tested. In the second study, the measurement invariance across gender, conducing a sequence of nested CFA models, was evaluated. Results showed good psychometric support for the instrument with Italian adolescents. PMID:27348551

  5. Future integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment considering land use / land cover and climate change using DRASTIC and SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, W.; Engel, B.; Chaubey, I.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change causes significant changes to temperature regimes and precipitation patterns across the world. Such alterations in climate pose serious risks for not only inland freshwater ecosystems but also groundwater systems, and may adversely affect numerous critical services they provide to humans. All groundwater results from precipitation, and precipitation is affected by climate change. Climate change is also influenced by land use / land cover (LULC) change and vice versa. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, climate change is caused by global warming which is generated by the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere. LULC change is a major driving factor causing an increase in GHG emissions. LULC change data (years 2006-2100) will be produced by the Land Transformation Model (LTM) which simulates spatial patterns of LULC change over time. MIROC5 (years 2006-2100) will be obtained considering GCMs and ensemble characteristics such as resolution and trend of temperature and precipitation which is a consistency check with observed data from local weather stations and historical data from GCMs output data. Thus, MIROC5 will be used to account for future climate change scenarios and relationship between future climate change and alteration of groundwater quality in this study. For efficient groundwater resources management, integrated aquifer vulnerability assessments (= intrinsic vulnerability + hazard potential assessment) are required. DRASTIC will be used to evaluate intrinsic vulnerability, and aquifer hazard potential will be evaluated by Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) which can simulate pollution potential from surface and transport properties of contaminants. Thus, for effective integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment for LULC and climate change in the Midwestern United States, future projected LULC and climate data from the LTM and GCMs will be incorporated with DRASTIC and SWAT. It is

  6. Preliminary assessment of potential CDM early start projects in Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyers, S.; Sathaye, J.; Lehman, B.; Schumacher, K.; van Vliet, O.; Moreira, J.R.

    2000-11-01

    The Brazil/US Aspen Global Forum on Climate Change Policies and Programs has facilitated a dialogue between key Brazil and US public and private sector leaders on the subject of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). With support from the US government, a cooperative effort between Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the University of Sao Paulo conducted an assessment of a number of projects put forth by Brazilian sponsors. Initially, we gathered information and conducted a screening assessment for ten projects in the energy sector and six projects in the forestry sector. Some of the projects appeared to offer greater potential to be attractive for CDM, or had better information available. We then conducted a more detailed assessment of 12 of these projects, and two other projects that were submitted after the initial screening. An important goal was to assess the potential impact of Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) on the financial performance of projects. With the exception of the two forestry-based fuel displacement projects, the impact of CERs on the internal rate of return (IRR) is fairly small. This is true for both the projects that displace grid electricity and those that displace local (diesel-based) electricity production. The relative effect of CERs is greater for projects whose IRR without CERs is low. CERs have a substantial effect on the IRR of the two short-rotation forestry energy substitution projects. One reason is that the biofuel displaces coke and oil, both of which are carbon-intensive. Another factor is that the product of these projects (charcoal and woodfuel, respectively) is relatively low value, so the revenue from carbon credits has a strong relative impact. CERs also have a substantial effect on the NPV of the carbon sequestration projects. Financial and other barriers pose a challenge for implementation of most of the projects. In most cases, the sponsor lacks sufficient capital, and loans are available only at high interest

  7. Regional assessment of the hydropower potential of rivers in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kling, Harald; Stanzel, Philipp; Fuchs, Martin

    2016-04-01

    The 15 countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) face a constant shortage of energy supply, which limits sustained economic growth. Currently there are about 50 operational hydropower plants and about 40 more are under construction or refurbishment. The potential for future hydropower development - especially for small-scale plants in rural areas - is assumed to be large, but exact data are missing. This study supports the energy initiatives of the "ECOWAS Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency" (ECREEE) by assessing the hydropower potential of all rivers in West Africa. For more than 500,000 river reaches the hydropower potential was computed from channel slope and mean annual discharge. In large areas there is a lack of discharge observations. Therefore, an annual water balance model was used to simulate discharge. The model domain covers 5 Mio km², including e.g. the Niger, Volta, and Senegal River basins. The model was calibrated with observed data of 410 gauges, using precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data as inputs. Historic variations of observed annual discharge between 1950 and 2010 are simulated well by the model. As hydropower plants are investments with a lifetime of several decades we also assessed possible changes in future discharge due to climate change. To this end the water balance model was driven with bias-corrected climate projections of 15 Regional Climate Models for two emission scenarios of the CORDEX-Africa ensemble. The simulation results for the river network were up-scaled to sub-areas and national summaries. This information gives a regional quantification of the hydropower potential, expected climate change impacts, as well as a regional classification for general suitability (or non-suitability) of hydropower plant size - from small-scale to large projects.

  8. Evaluating the Potential of NASA's Earth Science Research Results for Improving Future Operational Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederick, M. E.; Cox, E. L.; Friedl, L. A.

    2006-12-01

    evaluation of many and varied NASA research results for their potential to be candidates for further development as an ISS project. The intention is to seed the community with many creative ideas for projects that use "un-applied" NASA research results to serve society, such as simulations of future missions.

  9. An interlaboratory comparison of methods used to assess antioxidant potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buenger, J; Ackermann, H; Jentzsch, A; Mehling, A; Pfitzner, I; Reiffen, K-A; Schroeder, K-R; Wollenweber, U

    2006-04-01

    Many analytical methods are used to measure the antioxidative activity of substances yet little is known about the comparability of the test results between laboratories. After an initial evaluation of a broad range of methods conducted by one laboratory, the 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) assay, the trolox equivalent antioxidant capacity (TEAC) assay, the lipid assay (or 2,2'-azobis(2-aminepropane) (ABAP) assay) and the thiobarbituric acid (TBA) assay were selected to be evaluated in the interlaboratory study. The antioxidative potentials of trolox, tocopherol, lipochroman-6, ascorbic acid, 4-methyl-brenzcatechin, and/or 3,5-di-tert-butyl-4-hydroxytoluene (BHT) were assessed using each of the methods. These methods were then evaluated in respect of their reproducibility and classification properties. Based on the results of this study, the DPPH assay followed by the TEAC assay yielded the best results based on reproducibility and sensitivity both within one laboratory and between laboratories. The results of the interlaboratory study were then compared with the single center results obtained from the commercially available photochemolumiescence (PCL) kit. To assess the transferability of chemical data to biological systems, they were also compared with the single center results obtained using the cell-based Dichlorodihydrofluoresceine (DCFH) assay. PMID:18492148

  10. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faber, Irene R; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T; Faber, Niels R; Oosterveld, Frits G J; Nijhuis-Van der Sanden, Maria W G

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be included in a talent

  11. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faber, Irene R; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T; Faber, Niels R; Oosterveld, Frits G J; Nijhuis-Van der Sanden, Maria W G

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be included in a talent

  12. Anesthetic gases and global warming: Potentials, prevention and future of anesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadani, Hina; Vyas, Arun

    2011-01-01

    Global warming refers to an average increase in the earth's temperature, which in turn causes changes in climate. A warmer earth may lead to changes in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea level, and a wide range of impacts on plants, wildlife, and humans. Greenhouse gases make the earth warmer by trapping energy inside the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases are any gas that absorbs infrared radiation in the atmosphere and include: water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), halogenated fluorocarbons (HCFCs), ozone (O3), perfluorinated carbons (PFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Hazardous chemicals enter the air we breathe as a result of dozens of activities carried out during a typical day at a healthcare facility like processing lab samples, burning fossil fuels etc. We sometimes forget that anesthetic agents are also greenhouse gases (GHGs). Anesthetic agents used today are volatile halogenated ethers and the common carrier gas nitrous oxide known to be aggressive GHGs. With less than 5% of the total delivered halogenated anesthetic being metabolized by the patient, the vast majority of the anesthetic is routinely vented to the atmosphere through the operating room scavenging system. The global warming potential (GWP) of a halogenated anesthetic is up to 2,000 times greater than CO2. Global warming potentials are used to compare the strength of different GHGs to trap heat in the atmosphere relative to that of CO2. Here we discuss about the GWP of anesthetic gases, preventive measures to decrease the global warming effects of anesthetic gases and Xenon, a newer anesthetic gas for the future of anesthesia. PMID:25885293

  13. Anesthetic gases and global warming: Potentials, prevention and future of anesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadani, Hina; Vyas, Arun

    2011-01-01

    Global warming refers to an average increase in the earth's temperature, which in turn causes changes in climate. A warmer earth may lead to changes in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea level, and a wide range of impacts on plants, wildlife, and humans. Greenhouse gases make the earth warmer by trapping energy inside the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases are any gas that absorbs infrared radiation in the atmosphere and include: water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), halogenated fluorocarbons (HCFCs), ozone (O3), perfluorinated carbons (PFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Hazardous chemicals enter the air we breathe as a result of dozens of activities carried out during a typical day at a healthcare facility like processing lab samples, burning fossil fuels etc. We sometimes forget that anesthetic agents are also greenhouse gases (GHGs). Anesthetic agents used today are volatile halogenated ethers and the common carrier gas nitrous oxide known to be aggressive GHGs. With less than 5% of the total delivered halogenated anesthetic being metabolized by the patient, the vast majority of the anesthetic is routinely vented to the atmosphere through the operating room scavenging system. The global warming potential (GWP) of a halogenated anesthetic is up to 2,000 times greater than CO2. Global warming potentials are used to compare the strength of different GHGs to trap heat in the atmosphere relative to that of CO2. Here we discuss about the GWP of anesthetic gases, preventive measures to decrease the global warming effects of anesthetic gases and Xenon, a newer anesthetic gas for the future of anesthesia.

  14. Clinical reasoning assessment through medical expertise theories: past, present and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boushehri, Elham; Soltani Arabshahi, Kamran; Monajemi, Alireza

    2015-01-01

    Exploration into the concept of "medical expert" dates back to more than 50 years ago, yet yielding three leading theories in the area of clinical reasoning, namely, knowledge structure, hypotheticdeductive, and dual process. Each theory defines "medical expert" in a dissimilar way. Therefore, the methods of assessment through which the experts are identified have been changed during the time. In this paper, we tried to categorize and introduce some widely used tests for identification of experts within the framework of existing main theories. Implementation of the proposed categorization for providing future assessment tools is discussed.

  15. Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Can

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moren, Lena

    2006-10-15

    This report documents the future human actions (FHA) considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Can. The purpose of this report is to provide an account of: General considerations concerning FHA; The methodology applied in SR-Can to assess FHA; The aspects of FHA that need to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository; and The selection of representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis.

  16. Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Can

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report documents the future human actions (FHA) considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Can. The purpose of this report is to provide an account of: General considerations concerning FHA; The methodology applied in SR-Can to assess FHA; The aspects of FHA that need to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository; and The selection of representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis

  17. Floating Offshore Wind in Oregon: Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts from Two Future Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jimenez, Tony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tegen, Suzanne [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Speer, Bethany [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-05-01

    Construction of the first offshore wind power plant in the United States began in 2015, off the coast of Rhode Island, using fixed platform structures that are appropriate for shallow seafloors, like those located off of the East Coast and mid-Atlantic. However, floating platforms, which have yet to be deployed commercially, will likely need to anchor to the deeper seafloor if deployed off of the West Coast. To analyze the employment and economic potential for floating offshore wind along the West Coast, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to analyze two hypothetical, large-scale deployment scenarios for Oregon: 5,500 megawatts (MW) of offshore wind deployment in Oregon by 2050 (Scenario A), and 2,900 MW of offshore wind by 2050 (Scenario B). These levels of deployment could power approximately 1,600,000 homes (Scenario A) or 870,000 homes (Scenario B). Offshore wind would contribute to economic development in Oregon in the near future, and more substantially in the long term, especially if equipment and labor are sourced from within the state. According to the analysis, over the 2020-2050 period, Oregon floating offshore wind facilities could support 65,000-97,000 job-years and add $6.8 billion-$9.9 billion to the state GDP (Scenario A).

  18. Applying quantitative structure-activity relationship approaches to nanotoxicology: current status and future potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, David A; Mombelli, Enrico; Pietroiusti, Antonio; Tran, Lang; Worth, Andrew; Fadeel, Bengt; McCall, Maxine J

    2013-11-01

    The potential (eco)toxicological hazard posed by engineered nanoparticles is a major scientific and societal concern since several industrial sectors (e.g. electronics, biomedicine, and cosmetics) are exploiting the innovative properties of nanostructures resulting in their large-scale production. Many consumer products contain nanomaterials and, given their complex life-cycle, it is essential to anticipate their (eco)toxicological properties in a fast and inexpensive way in order to mitigate adverse effects on human health and the environment. In this context, the application of the structure-toxicity paradigm to nanomaterials represents a promising approach. Indeed, according to this paradigm, it is possible to predict toxicological effects induced by chemicals on the basis of their structural similarity with chemicals for which toxicological endpoints have been previously measured. These structure-toxicity relationships can be quantitative or qualitative in nature and they can predict toxicological effects directly from the physicochemical properties of the entities (e.g. nanoparticles) of interest. Therefore, this approach can aid in prioritizing resources in toxicological investigations while reducing the ethical and monetary costs that are related to animal testing. The purpose of this review is to provide a summary of recent key advances in the field of QSAR modelling of nanomaterial toxicity, to identify the major gaps in research required to accelerate the use of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) methods, and to provide a roadmap for future research needed to achieve QSAR models useful for regulatory purposes. PMID:23165187

  19. Geologic evolution of the Jemez Mountains and their potential for future volcanic activity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burton, B.W.

    1982-01-01

    Geophysical and geochemical data and the geologic history of the Rio Grande rift and the vicinity of the Jemez Mountains are summarized to determine the probability of future volcanic activity in the Los Alamos, New Mexico area. The apparent cyclic nature of volcanism in the Jemez Mountains may be related to intermittent thermal inputs into the volcanic system beneath the region. The Jemez lineament, an alignment of late Cenozoic volcanic centers that crosses the rift near Los Alamos, has played an important role in the volcanic evolution of the Jemez Mountains. Geophysical data suggest that there is no active shallow magma body beneath the Valles caldera, though magma probably exists at about 15 km beneath this portion of the rift. The rate of volcanism in the Jemez Mountains during the last 10 million years has been 5 x 10/sup -9//km/sup 2//y. Lava or ash flows overriding Laboratory radioactive waste disposal sites would have little potential to release radionuclides to the environment. The probability of a new volcano intruding close enough to a radioactive waste disposal site to effect radionuclide release is 2 x 10/sup -7//y.

  20. Phosphorus recovery from wastewater--expert survey on present use and future potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sartorius, Christan; von Horn, Jana; Tettenborn, Felix

    2012-04-01

    Today, a variety of different approaches to the recovery of phosphorus from wastewater, sludge, and sludge ash exist. These approaches differ basically by the origin of the used matter (wastewater, sludge liquor, fermented or nonfermented sludge ash) and the process (precipitation, wet-chemical extraction, and thermal treatment). To rate them according to their characteristics, the latter were phrased as hypotheses and subjected to an international expert survey. The survey showed that phosphorus recovery is expected to become an established process over the next 20 years in industrialized countries for economic reasons. A decisive aspect in this regard will be the quality of the produced fertilizer. Simple technologies such as the recovery from sludge liquor seem to be preferred. If sludge is incinerated, phosphorus recycling from ash then becomes more interesting and has to be considered. Phosphorus recovery and source-separating sanitation technologies are more appropriate for industrialized countries than for developing countries. Because the growing awareness of environmental issues will prevent sludge from being used agriculturally in an increasing number of countries in the next decade, the market potential for nutrient recovery technologies will increase in the immediate future. PMID:22834219

  1. The 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lourenço, José; Recker, Mario

    2014-08-01

    Dengue, a vector-borne viral disease of increasing global importance, is classically associated with tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Urbanisation, globalisation and climate trends, however, are facilitating the geographic spread of its mosquito vectors, thereby increasing the risk of the virus establishing itself in previously unaffected areas and causing large-scale epidemics. On 3 October 2012, two autochthonous dengue infections were reported within the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal. During the following seven months, this first 'European' dengue outbreak caused more than 2000 local cases and 81 exported cases to mainland Europe. Here, using an ento-epidemiological mathematical framework, we estimate that the introduction of dengue to Madeira occurred around a month before the first official cases, during the period of maximum influx of airline travel, and that the naturally declining temperatures of autumn were the determining factor for the outbreak's demise in early December 2012. Using key estimates, together with local climate data, we further propose that there is little support for dengue endemicity on this island, but a high potential for future epidemic outbreaks when seeded between May and August-a period when detection of imported cases is crucial for Madeira's public health planning. PMID:25144749

  2. The Future Potential of Brazilian Sugarcane Ethanol with respect to Land Availability and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, D.; Miguez, F.; Bollero, G.; Long, S.

    2014-12-01

    Expanding sugarcane production on the 65.9 mha area identified by Brazilian government can provide a sustainable and low carbon intensive supply of liquid fuel to the world. However, such expansion is also subject to long-term climate changes. Variation in sugarcane yield at policy-relevant spatial and temporal scales can greatly influence the long-term potential of Brazilian. A process-based crop model (BioCro) is parameterized and calibrated for leaf photosynthesis and field productivity. Multi-site validation against observed stem yield of sugarcane cultivar RB72454 suggests that model can predict consistent yield (observed = 0.92 × predicted; R2 = 0.65) over a wide range of soil and environmental conditions in Brazil. Regional simulations based on national soil data and reanalysis climate data suggest that 1.938 petagram (Pg) of stem dry biomass can be harvested annually. Increasing temperature and [CO2] can partially compensate for yield decline due to reduced rainfall in future, by means of greater water use efficiency and rate of photosynthesis. Simulations using five GCMs climate data suggest that average productivity of harvested stem dry biomass may decline from 1.938 Pg year-1 to 1.544 Pg year-1 (1.243-2.066 Pg year-1) by 2045 in the absence of improved cultivars.

  3. Geologic evolution of the Jemez Mountains and their potential for future volcanic activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geophysical and geochemical data and the geologic history of the Rio Grande rift and the vicinity of the Jemez Mountains are summarized to determine the probability of future volcanic activity in the Los Alamos, New Mexico area. The apparent cyclic nature of volcanism in the Jemez Mountains may be related to intermittent thermal inputs into the volcanic system beneath the region. The Jemez lineament, an alignment of late Cenozoic volcanic centers that crosses the rift near Los Alamos, has played an important role in the volcanic evolution of the Jemez Mountains. Geophysical data suggest that there is no active shallow magma body beneath the Valles caldera, though magma probably exists at about 15 km beneath this portion of the rift. The rate of volcanism in the Jemez Mountains during the last 10 million years has been 5 x 10-9/km2/y. Lava or ash flows overriding Laboratory radioactive waste disposal sites would have little potential to release radionuclides to the environment. The probability of a new volcano intruding close enough to a radioactive waste disposal site to effect radionuclide release is 2 x 10-7/y

  4. The 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Lourenço

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Dengue, a vector-borne viral disease of increasing global importance, is classically associated with tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Urbanisation, globalisation and climate trends, however, are facilitating the geographic spread of its mosquito vectors, thereby increasing the risk of the virus establishing itself in previously unaffected areas and causing large-scale epidemics. On 3 October 2012, two autochthonous dengue infections were reported within the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal. During the following seven months, this first 'European' dengue outbreak caused more than 2000 local cases and 81 exported cases to mainland Europe. Here, using an ento-epidemiological mathematical framework, we estimate that the introduction of dengue to Madeira occurred around a month before the first official cases, during the period of maximum influx of airline travel, and that the naturally declining temperatures of autumn were the determining factor for the outbreak's demise in early December 2012. Using key estimates, together with local climate data, we further propose that there is little support for dengue endemicity on this island, but a high potential for future epidemic outbreaks when seeded between May and August-a period when detection of imported cases is crucial for Madeira's public health planning.

  5. Applying quantitative structure–activity relationship approaches to nanotoxicology: Current status and future potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The potential (eco)toxicological hazard posed by engineered nanoparticles is a major scientific and societal concern since several industrial sectors (e.g. electronics, biomedicine, and cosmetics) are exploiting the innovative properties of nanostructures resulting in their large-scale production. Many consumer products contain nanomaterials and, given their complex life-cycle, it is essential to anticipate their (eco)toxicological properties in a fast and inexpensive way in order to mitigate adverse effects on human health and the environment. In this context, the application of the structure–toxicity paradigm to nanomaterials represents a promising approach. Indeed, according to this paradigm, it is possible to predict toxicological effects induced by chemicals on the basis of their structural similarity with chemicals for which toxicological endpoints have been previously measured. These structure–toxicity relationships can be quantitative or qualitative in nature and they can predict toxicological effects directly from the physicochemical properties of the entities (e.g. nanoparticles) of interest. Therefore, this approach can aid in prioritizing resources in toxicological investigations while reducing the ethical and monetary costs that are related to animal testing. The purpose of this review is to provide a summary of recent key advances in the field of QSAR modelling of nanomaterial toxicity, to identify the major gaps in research required to accelerate the use of quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) methods, and to provide a roadmap for future research needed to achieve QSAR models useful for regulatory purposes

  6. Current Status and Future Potential of Energy Derived from Chinese Agricultural Land: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ningning Zhai

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Energy crisis is receiving attention with regard to the global economy and environmental sustainable development. Developing new energy resources to optimize the energy supply structure has become an important measure to prevent energy shortage as well as achieving energy conservation and emission reduction in China. This study proposed the concept of energy agriculture and constructed an energy agricultural technical support system based on the analysis of energy supply and demand and China’s foreign dependence on energy resources, combined with the function of agriculture in the energy field. Manufacturing technology equipment and agricultural and forestry energy, including crop or forestry plants and animal feces, were used in the system. The current status and future potential of China’s marginal land resources, energy crop germplasm resources, and agricultural and forestry waste energy-oriented resources were analyzed. Developing the function of traditional agriculture in food production may promote China’s social, economic, and environmental sustainable development and achieve energy saving and emission reduction.

  7. The 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lourenço, José; Recker, Mario

    2014-08-01

    Dengue, a vector-borne viral disease of increasing global importance, is classically associated with tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Urbanisation, globalisation and climate trends, however, are facilitating the geographic spread of its mosquito vectors, thereby increasing the risk of the virus establishing itself in previously unaffected areas and causing large-scale epidemics. On 3 October 2012, two autochthonous dengue infections were reported within the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal. During the following seven months, this first 'European' dengue outbreak caused more than 2000 local cases and 81 exported cases to mainland Europe. Here, using an ento-epidemiological mathematical framework, we estimate that the introduction of dengue to Madeira occurred around a month before the first official cases, during the period of maximum influx of airline travel, and that the naturally declining temperatures of autumn were the determining factor for the outbreak's demise in early December 2012. Using key estimates, together with local climate data, we further propose that there is little support for dengue endemicity on this island, but a high potential for future epidemic outbreaks when seeded between May and August-a period when detection of imported cases is crucial for Madeira's public health planning.

  8. Flood Risk Analysis and Flood Potential Losses Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    The heavy floods in the Taihu Basin showed increasing trend in recent years. In thiswork, a typical area in the northern Taihu Basin was selected for flood risk analysis and potentialflood losses assessment. Human activities have strong impact on the study area' s flood situation (asaffected by the polders built, deforestation, population increase, urbanization, etc. ), and havemade water level higher, flood duration shorter, and flood peaks sharper. Five years of differentflood return periods [(1970), 5 (1962), 10 (1987), 20 (1954), 50 (1991)] were used to cal-culate the potential flood risk area and its losses. The potential flood risk map, economic losses,and flood-impacted population were also calculated. The study's main conclusions are: 1 ) Humanactivities have strongly changed the natural flood situation in the study area, increasing runoff andflooding; 2) The flood risk area is closely related with the precipitation center; 3) Polder construc-tion has successfully protected land from flood, shortened the flood duration, and elevated waterlevel in rivers outside the polders; 4) Economic and social development have caused flood losses toincrease in recent years.

  9. Assessing the standard Molybdenum projector augmented wave VASP potentials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mattsson, Ann E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Multi-Scale Science

    2014-07-01

    Density Functional Theory (DFT) based Equation of State (EOS) construction is a prominent part of Sandia’s capabilities to support engineering sciences. This capability is based on augmenting experimental data with information gained from computational investigations, especially in those parts of the phase space where experimental data is hard, dangerous, or expensive to obtain. A key part of the success of the Sandia approach is the fundamental science work supporting the computational capability. Not only does this work enhance the capability to perform highly accurate calculations but it also provides crucial insight into the limitations of the computational tools, providing high confidence in the results even where results cannot be, or have not yet been, validated by experimental data. This report concerns the key ingredient of projector augmented-wave (PAW) potentials for use in pseudo-potential computational codes. Using the tools discussed in SAND2012-7389 we assess the standard Vienna Ab-initio Simulation Package (VASP) PAWs for Molybdenum.

  10. Threat Assessment of Potential Terrorist Attacks to the Transport Infrastructure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Nowacki

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents threat assessment of potential terrorist attacks to the transport infrastructure. The range of transportation infrastructure has spread and includes railway, inland waterways, road, maritime, air, intermodal transport infrastructure and intelligent transport systems (ITS. ITS service is the provision of an ITS application through a well-defined organisational and operational framework with the aim of contributing to the user safety, efficiency, comfort and/or to facilitate or support transport and travel operations. Terrorism means acts of violence committed by groups that view themselves as victimized by some notable historical wrong. Although these groups have no formal connection with governments, they usually have the financial and moral backing of sympathetic governments. Typically, they stage unexpected attacks on civilian targets, including transport infrastructure, with the aim of sowing fear and confusion. Based on the analyses, transportation infrastructure is potentially threatened with terrorism attacks, especially road and rail infrastructure (about 23 %, and to a smaller degree the maritime and air transport infrastructure (about 2 %. There were 90,3% of incidents involve land transport (74,5% – vehicles, 9,5% – buses, 6,3% - rail covered the 41-year period 1967-2007 in the USA. Legal steps to fight terrorism have been taken on the international level, furthermore, some institutions have been established for this purpose.

  11. Integrated assessment of future land use in Brazil under increasing demand for bioenergy

    OpenAIRE

    Verstegen, Judith; van der Hilst, Floortje; Karssenberg, Derek; Faaij, André

    2014-01-01

    Environmental impacts of a future increase in demand for bioenergydepend on the magnitude, location and pattern of the direct and indirectland use change of energy cropland expansion. Here we aim at 1)projecting the spatiotemporal pattern of sugar cane expansion and theeffect on other land uses in Brazil towards 2030, and 2) assessing theuncertainty herein. For the spatio-temporal projection, four modelcomponents are used: 1) an initial land use map that shows the initialamount and location o...

  12. Making Development Sustainable: The Future of Disaster Risk Management, Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction

    OpenAIRE

    Desai, B; Maskrey, A.; Peduzzi, Pascal; De Bono, Andréa; Herold, Christian

    2015-01-01

    The 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR15), Making Development Sustainable: The Future of Disaster Risk Management, is the fourth in the series coordinated by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) in the context of the Hyogo Frame - work for Action 2005-2015: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters (HFA). This report includes new results regarding the identification of disaster risk. It features a new global characteri...

  13. Potential of 3D City Models to assess flood vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröter, Kai; Bochow, Mathias; Schüttig, Martin; Nagel, Claus; Ross, Lutz; Kreibich, Heidi

    2016-04-01

    Vulnerability, as the product of exposure and susceptibility, is a key factor of the flood risk equation. Furthermore, the estimation of flood loss is very sensitive to the choice of the vulnerability model. Still, in contrast to elaborate hazard simulations, vulnerability is often considered in a simplified manner concerning the spatial resolution and geo-location of exposed objects as well as the susceptibility of these objects at risk. Usually, area specific potential flood loss is quantified on the level of aggregated land-use classes, and both hazard intensity and resistance characteristics of affected objects are represented in highly simplified terms. We investigate the potential of 3D City Models and spatial features derived from remote sensing data to improve the differentiation of vulnerability in flood risk assessment. 3D City Models are based on CityGML, an application scheme of the Geography Markup Language (GML), which represents the 3D geometry, 3D topology, semantics and appearance of objects on different levels of detail. As such, 3D City Models offer detailed spatial information which is useful to describe the exposure and to characterize the susceptibility of residential buildings at risk. This information is further consolidated with spatial features of the building stock derived from remote sensing data. Using this database a spatially detailed flood vulnerability model is developed by means of data-mining. Empirical flood damage data are used to derive and to validate flood susceptibility models for individual objects. We present first results from a prototype application in the city of Dresden, Germany. The vulnerability modeling based on 3D City Models and remote sensing data is compared i) to the generally accepted good engineering practice based on area specific loss potential and ii) to a highly detailed representation of flood vulnerability based on a building typology using urban structure types. Comparisons are drawn in terms of

  14. Acid mine drainage in Australia: its extent and potential future liability. Supervising Scientist Report 125

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to better understand the impact of acid drainage in Australia and to provide a basis for assessing long-term management options, the Office of the Supervising Scientist (OSS) and the Australian Centre for Minesite Rehabilitation Research (ACMRR) initiated this study to prepare a status report on acid mine drainage in Australia. The study is supported by the Minerals Council of Australia. The coverage of this study includes all mine sites where sulphidic oxidation in mine wastes or mine workings leads to the release of contaminated drainage with off-site impacts. The objectives of the study were: 1. to quantify and characterise the generation of contaminated drainage by sulphidic oxidation from historic and current mining activities in Australia; 2. to develop a classification scheme to characterise the potential for off-site impacts from sulphidic oxidation in mine wastes; 3. to compare the cost at the national level of managing sulphidic oxidation in mine wastes and any resulting contaminated drainage with other mining and environmental costs; 4. to make recommendations based on the information received to improve the understanding and management of acid mine drainage in Australia. Information was collected on the extent and management of sulphidic oxidation and acid drainage at operating, historic and derelict mines in Australia. Mining operators, environmental officers, industry representatives, state government departments and others were asked about their experience with acid mine drainage and how it is currently managed at operating and historic mine sites. Based on the information collected, the additional cost of managing potentially acid generating wastes at operating mine sites is estimated to be about AUD 60 million per year. Potentially, the financial risk could be much greater if sulphide oxidation and release of pollutants is discovered after mine closure, as was the case for historic sites like Mt Lyell, Rum Jungle or Mt Morgan. The

  15. MEDIA ENVIRONMENT AS FACTOR OF REALIZATION OF CREATIVE POTENTIAL OF FUTURE TEACHERS` IN THE MOUNTAIN SCHOOLS OF THE UKRAINIAN CARPATHIANS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alla Lebedieva

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The article shows up “media environment” as a factor of future teachers` creative potential realization in the mountainous schools of the Ukrainian Carpathians. The problem of using media environment as a factor of future teachers` creative potential in the mountainous schools of the Ukrainian Carpathians and the ways of its optimization is the main point of this research. Highlights ways to modernize social and professional orientation training of students in the creative process of nature is situates in information education and educational environment of high school. We consider the causal link use media environment as a factor of future teachers` creative potential and complexity of the teacher in the mountainous schools of the Ukrainian Carpathians. The basic function of the media environment are extensity, instrumental, communicative, interactive, multimedia. Reveals some aspects of training students to creatively active teaching process we describe subjects with objective possibilities in the formation of professional skills of future teachers` and which directly affect the realization of creative potential – “Ukrainian folk art”, “Basic recitation and rhetoric”, “The basis of pedagogical creativity”. The necessity of creating a full-fledged media environment in higher education is important condition of successful education as an important factor that allows the efficiency of the creative potential of future teachers` in the mountainous schools of the Ukrainian Carpathians.

  16. Risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. Current approaches and future strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Larsen, John Christian; Meyer, Otto A.

    2010-01-01

    The risk assessment of pesticide residues in food is based on toxicological evaluation of the single compounds and no internationally accepted procedure exists for evaluation of cumulative exposure to multiple residues of pesticides in crops, except for a few groups of pesticides sharing a group...... several approaches are available for the risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. However, no single simple approach is available to judge upon potential interactions at the low doses that humans are exposed to from pesticide residues in food. In these cases, PBTK models could be useful as tools to...... assess combined tissue doses and to help predict potential interactions including thresholds for such effects. This would improve the quality of the risk assessment....

  17. Critical thinking: assessing the risks to the future security of supply of critical metals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunn, Gus

    2015-04-01

    Increasing world population, the spread of prosperity across the globe and the demands of new technologies have led to a revival of concerns about the availability of raw materials needed by society. Despite scare stories about resource depletion, physical exhaustion of minerals is considered to be unlikely. However, we do need to know which materials might be of concern so that we can develop strategies to secure adequate supplies and to mitigate the effects of supply disruption. This requirement has led to renewed interest in criticality, a term that is generally used to refer to metals and minerals of high economic importance that have a relatively high likelihood of supply disruption. The European Union (EU) developed a quantitative methodology for the assessment of criticality which led to the definition of 14 raw materials as critical to the EU economy (EC, 2010). This has succeeded in raising awareness of potential supply issues and in helping to prioritise requirements for new policies and supporting research. The EU has recently assessed a larger number of candidate materials of which 20 are now identified as critical to the EU (EC, 2014). These include metals such as indium, mostly used in flat-screen displays, antimony for flame retardants and cobalt for rechargeable batteries, alloys and a host of other products. Although there is no consensus on the methodology for criticality assessments and broad analyses at this scale are inevitably imperfect, they can, nevertheless, provide early warning of supply problems. However, in order to develop more rigorous and dynamic assessments of future availability detailed analysis of the whole life-cycle of individual metals to identify specific problems and develop appropriate solutions is required. New policies, such as the Raw Materials Initiative (2008) and the European Innovation Partnership on Raw Materials (2013), have been developed by the European Commission (EC) and are aimed at securing sustainable

  18. Assessment of Rainfall-induced Landslide Potential and Spatial Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yie-Ruey; Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chen, Jing-Wen; Chiang, Jie-Lun; Hsieh, Shun-Chieh; Chue, Yung-Sheng

    2016-04-01

    Recently, due to the global climate change, most of the time the rainfall in Taiwan is of short duration but with high intensity. Due to Taiwan's steep terrain, rainfall-induced landslides often occur and lead to human causalities and properties loss. Taiwan's government has invested huge reconstruction funds to the affected areas. However, after rehabilitation they still face the risk of secondary sediment disasters. Therefore, this study assesses rainfall-induced (secondary) landslide potential and spatial distribution in watershed of Southern Taiwan under extreme climate change. The study areas in this research are Baolai and Jianshan villages in the watershed of the Laonongxi River Basin in the Southern Taiwan. This study focused on the 3 years after Typhoon Morakot (2009 to 2011). During this period, the study area experienced six heavy rainfall events including five typhoons and one heavy rainfall. The genetic adaptive neural network, texture analysis and GIS were implemented in the analysis techniques for the interpretation of satellite images and to obtain surface information and hazard log data and to analyze land use change. A multivariate hazards evaluation method was applied to quantitatively analyze the weights of various natural environmental and slope development hazard factors. Furthermore, this study established a slope landslide potential assessment model and depicted a slope landslide potential diagram by using the GIS platform. The interaction between (secondary) landslide mechanism, scale, and location was analyzed using association analysis of landslide historical data and regional environmental characteristics. The results of image classification before and after six heavy rainfall events show that the values of coefficient of agreement are at medium-high level. By multivariate hazards evaluation method, geology and the effective accumulative rainfall (EAR) are the most important factors. Slope, distance from fault, aspect, land disturbance

  19. Potential future impact of a partially effective HIV vaccine in a southern African setting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew N Phillips

    Full Text Available It is important for public health and within the HIV vaccine development field to understand the potential population level impact of an HIV vaccine of partial efficacy--both in preventing infection and in reducing viral load in vaccinated individuals who become infected--in the context of a realistic future implementation scenario in resource limited settings.An individual level model of HIV transmission, progression and the effect of antiretroviral therapy was used to predict the outcome to 2060 of introduction in 2025 of a partially effective vaccine with various combinations of efficacy characteristics, in the context of continued ART roll-out in southern Africa.In the context of our base case epidemic (in 2015 HIV prevalence 28% and incidence 1.7 per 100 person years, a vaccine with only 30% preventative efficacy could make a substantial difference in the rate with which HIV incidence declines; the impact on incidence in relative terms is projected to increase over time, with a projected 67% lower HIV incidence in 2060 compared with no vaccine introduction. The projected mean decline in the general adult population death rate 2040-2060 is 11%. A vaccine with no prevention efficacy but which reduces viral load by 1 log is predicted to result in a modest (14% reduction in HIV incidence and an 8% reduction in death rate in the general adult population (mean 2040-2060. These effects were broadly similar in multivariable uncertainty analysis.Introduction of a partially effective preventive HIV vaccine would make a substantial long-term impact on HIV epidemics in southern Africa, in addition to the effects of ART. Development of an HIV vaccine, even of relatively low apparent efficacy at the individual level, remains a critical global public health goal.

  20. Evaluating Cloud and Precipitation Processes in Numerical Models using Current and Potential Future Satellite Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Heever, S. C.; Tao, W. K.; Skofronick Jackson, G.; Tanelli, S.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Petersen, W. A.; Kummerow, C. D.

    2015-12-01

    Cloud, aerosol and precipitation processes play a fundamental role in the water and energy cycle. It is critical to accurately represent these microphysical processes in numerical models if we are to better predict cloud and precipitation properties on weather through climate timescales. Much has been learned about cloud properties and precipitation characteristics from NASA satellite missions such as TRMM, CloudSat, and more recently GPM. Furthermore, data from these missions have been successfully utilized in evaluating the microphysical schemes in cloud-resolving models (CRMs) and global models. However, there are still many uncertainties associated with these microphysics schemes. These uncertainties can be attributed, at least in part, to the fact that microphysical processes cannot be directly observed or measured, but instead have to be inferred from those cloud properties that can be measured. Evaluation of microphysical parameterizations are becoming increasingly important as enhanced computational capabilities are facilitating the use of more sophisticated schemes in CRMs, and as future global models are being run on what has traditionally been regarded as cloud-resolving scales using CRM microphysical schemes. In this talk we will demonstrate how TRMM, CloudSat and GPM data have been used to evaluate different aspects of current CRM microphysical schemes, providing examples of where these approaches have been successful. We will also highlight CRM microphysical processes that have not been well evaluated and suggest approaches for addressing such issues. Finally, we will introduce a potential NASA satellite mission, the Cloud and Precipitation Processes Mission (CAPPM), which would facilitate the development and evaluation of different microphysical-dynamical feedbacks in numerical models.

  1. Coastal Change Potential (CPI) Assessment of Apostle Islands National Lakeshore (apis_shore)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A coastal change potential index (CPI) was used to map the relative change potential of the coast to future lake-level change within Apostle Islands National...

  2. Coastal Change Potential (CPI) Assessment of Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore (slbe_shore)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A coastal change potential index (CPI) was used to map the relative change potential of the coast to future lake-level change within Sleeping Bear Dunes National...

  3. Assessing relative resilience potential of coral reefs to inform management

    OpenAIRE

    Maynard, Jeffrey A; Mckagan, Steven; Raymundo, Laurie; Johnson, Steven; Ahmadia, Gabby N.; Johnston, Lyza; Houk, Peter; Williams, Gareth J.; Kendall, Matt; Heron, Scott F.; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Mcleod, Elizabeth; Tracey, Dieter; Planes, Serge

    2015-01-01

    International audience Ecological resilience assessments are an important part of resilience-based management (RBM) and can help prioritize and target management actions. Use of such assessments has been limited due to a lack of clear guidance on the assessment process. This study builds on the latest scientific advances in RBM to provide that guidance from a resilience assessment undertaken in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI). We assessed spatial variation in ecolog...

  4. The clean energy future of Saskatchewan. Evaluating the potential for nuclear power in Saskatchewan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harry, I. [SaskPower, Clean Energy Group, Regina, Saskatchewan (Canada)

    2013-07-01

    The clean energy direction of Saskatchewan is very dependent on the vision of the energy future. Saskatchewan has depended strongly on coal as a base load asset and embracing the future will depend on creating multiple pathways. This presentation will explore the pathways and the reasons why they are important.

  5. Neural correlates of self-appraisals in the near and distant future: an event-related potential study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Yangmei; Jackson, Todd; Wang, Xiaogang; Huang, Xiting

    2013-01-01

    To investigate perceptual and neural correlates of future self-appraisals as a function of temporal distance, event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded while participants (11 women, eight men) made judgments about the applicability of trait adjectives to their near future selves (i.e., one month from now) and their distant future selves (i.e., three years from now). Behavioral results indicated people used fewer positive adjectives, more negative adjectives, recalled more specific events coming to mind and felt more psychologically connected to the near future self than the distant future self. Electrophysiological results demonstrated that negative trait adjectives elicited more positive ERP deflections than did positive trait adjectives in the interval between 550 and 800 ms (late positive component) within the near future self condition. However, within the same interval, there were no significant differences between negative and positive traits adjectives in the distant future self condition. The results suggest that negative emotional processing in future self-appraisals is modulated by temporal distance, consistent with predictions of construal level theory.

  6. Neural correlates of self-appraisals in the near and distant future: an event-related potential study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yangmei Luo

    Full Text Available To investigate perceptual and neural correlates of future self-appraisals as a function of temporal distance, event-related potentials (ERPs were recorded while participants (11 women, eight men made judgments about the applicability of trait adjectives to their near future selves (i.e., one month from now and their distant future selves (i.e., three years from now. Behavioral results indicated people used fewer positive adjectives, more negative adjectives, recalled more specific events coming to mind and felt more psychologically connected to the near future self than the distant future self. Electrophysiological results demonstrated that negative trait adjectives elicited more positive ERP deflections than did positive trait adjectives in the interval between 550 and 800 ms (late positive component within the near future self condition. However, within the same interval, there were no significant differences between negative and positive traits adjectives in the distant future self condition. The results suggest that negative emotional processing in future self-appraisals is modulated by temporal distance, consistent with predictions of construal level theory.

  7. An assessment of the potential of the free electron laser

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A review is presented of the theoretical and experimental results which have been obtained to assess the potential of a Free Electron Laser (FEL) and to estimate the electron beam requirements with regard to energy, current and emittance. It is shown that with a FEL it is possible to obtain a radiation source which can be continuously tuned over a wide range from the far infra-red to the U-V, by varying the electron beam energy over a range approximately 1-250 MeV. The electron beam is required to be of high quality with very small energy spread and small transverse emittance. With presently developed electron beam sources of suitable quality, the conversion efficiency limits the output power to a mean of a few watts and a peak of the order of tens of kilo-watts. To obtain high output power requires the development of high current electron beam sources with high beam quality. The required beam quality is dependent on the magnet design and so further development is also required of high periodicity transverse field magnets with uniform transverse field across the magnet aperture. The spread in the electron distribution resulting from the dynamics in the FEL would appear to prevent any advantage being gained by recycling the electron beam. (U.K.)

  8. Modular power system topology assessment using Gaussian potential functions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia-Lagos, F.; Joya, G.; Sandoval, F. [Universidad de Malaga, ETSI Telecomunicacion (Spain). Dpto. Tecnologia Electronica; Marin, F.J. [Universidad de Malaga, ETSI Informatica (Spain). Dpto. Electronica

    2003-09-01

    A topology assessment system for power systems using active power measurements as input data is presented. The method is designed to be incorporated into a state estimator working with a bus-branch orientated network model. The system architecture contains two states: (i) the preprocessing state; and (ii) the classification stage. The preprocessing stage transforms each current measurement set to produce a vector in the [0.1]{sup n} space. This stage produces clusters of very similar preprocessing output vectors for each grid topology. The classification stage consists in a layer of Gaussian potential units with Mahalanobis distance, and classifies the preprocessing output vectors to identify the actual topology. The main features of this method are: (i) local topology identification; (ii) linear growth of the complexity with the power system size; (iii) correction of multiple errors; and (iv) insensitivity to bad data. Tests have been carried out using the IEEE 14, 30, 57, 118 and 300 standard networks and different topological and measurement configurations. These tests have demonstrated the successful application of the technique. (Author)

  9. Genetic diversity and population structure of endangered Aquilaria malaccensis revealed potential for future conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Pradeep; Nag, Akshay; Parmar, Rajni; Ghosh, Sneha; Bhau, Brijmohan Singh; Sharma, Ram Kumar

    2015-12-01

    The endangered Aquilaria malaccensis,is an important plant with high economic values. Characterization of genetic diversity and population structure is receiving tremendous attention for effective conservation of genetic resources. Considering important repositories of biological diversity, the genetic relationships of 127 A. malaccensis accessions from 10 home gardens of three states of northeast India were assessed using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP). Of the 1153 fragments amplified with four AFLP primer combinations, 916 (79.4%) were found to be polymorphic. Polymorphic information content (PIC) and marker index (MI) of each primer combination correlate significantly with the number of genotypes resolved. Overall, a high genetic diversity (avg. 71.85%) was recorded. Further, high gene flow (Nm: 3.37), low genetic differentiation (FST: 0.069) and high within population genetic variation (93%) suggests that most of the genetic diversity is restricted within population. Neighbour joining (NJ), principal coordinate analysis (PCoA) and Bayesian-based STRUCTURE grouped all the accessions in two clusters with significant intermixing between populations, therefore, revealed that two genetically distinct gene pools are operating in the A. malaccensis populations cultivated in home gardens. Based on the various diversity inferences, five diverse populations (JOH, FN, HLF, DHM and ITN) were identified, which can be potentially exploited to develop conservation strategies for A. malaccensis.

  10. National and regional generation of municipal residue biomass and the future potential for waste-to-energy implementation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Municipal residue biomass (MRB) in the municipal solid waste (MSW) stream is a potential year-round bioenergy feedstock. A method is developed to estimate the amount of residue biomass generated by the end-user at the scale of a country using a throughput approach. Given the trade balance of food and forestry products, the amount of MRB generated is calculated by estimating product lifetimes, discard rates, rates of access to MSW collection services, and biomass recovery rates. A wet tonne of MRB could be converted into about 8 GJ of energy and 640 kg of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, or buried in a landfill where it would decompose into 1800 kg of CO2 equivalent (in terms of global warming potential) methane (CH4) and CO2 emissions. It is estimated that approximately 1.5 Gt y-1 of MRB are currently collected worldwide. The energy content of this biomass is approximately 12 EJ, but only a fraction is currently utilized. An integrated assessment model is used to project future MRB generation and its utilization for energy, with and without a hypothetical climate policy to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Given an anticipated price for biomass energy (and carbon under a policy scenario), by the end of the century, it is projected that nearly 60% of global MRB would be converted to about 8 EJ y-1 of energy in a reference scenario, and nearly all of global MRB would be converted into 16 EJ y-1 of energy by the end of the century under a climate policy scenario. (author)

  11. Present and future assessment of growing degree days over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattanaik, D. R.; Mohapatra, M.; Srivastava, A. K.; Kumar, Arun

    2016-08-01

    The determination of heat requirements in the first developing phases of plants has been expressed as Growing Degree Days (GDD). The current study focuses on three selected study areas in Greece that are characterised by different climatic conditions due to their location and aims to assess the future variation and spatial distribution of Growing Degree Days (GDD) and how these can affect the main cultivations in the study areas. Future temperature data were obtained and analysed by the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis was performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 with the A1B and B1 scenarios. Spatial distribution was performed using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling technique through ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for all the future periods and scenarios, the GDD are expected to increase. Furthermore, the increase in the Sperchios River basin will be the highest, followed by the Ardas and the Geropotamos River basins. Moreover, the cultivation period will be shifted from April-October to April-September which will have social, economical and environmental benefits. Additionally, the spatial distribution indicated that in the upcoming years the existing cultivations can find favourable conditions and can be expanded in mountainous areas as well. On the other hand, due to the rough topography that exists in the study areas, the wide expansion of the existing cultivations into higher altitudes is unaffordable. Nevertheless, new more profitable cultivations can be introduced which can find propitious conditions in terms of GDD.

  12. The future of satellite remote sensing: A worldwide assessment and prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spann, G. W.

    1984-01-01

    A frame-work in which to assess and predict the future prospects for satellite remote sensing markets is provided. The scope of the analysis is the satellite-related market for data, equipment, and services. It encompasses both domestic and international markets and contains an examination of the various market characteristics by market segment (e.g., Federal Government, State and Local Governments, Academic Organizations, Industrial Companies, and Individuals) and primary applications areas (e.g., Geology, Forestry, Land Resource Management, Agriculture and Cartography). The forecasts are derived from an analysis of both U.S. and foreign market data. The evolution and current status of U.S. and Foreign markets to arrive at market growth rates is evaluated. Circumstances and events which are likely to affect the future market development are examined. A market growth scenario is presented that is consistent with past data sales trends and takes into account the dynamic nature of the future satellite remote sensing market. Several areas of current and future business opportunities available in this market are discussed. Specific worldwide forecasts are presented in three market sectors for the period 1980 to 1990.

  13. A coupled Bayesian and fault tree methodology to assess future groundwater conditions in light of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Huang

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Maintaining acceptable groundwater levels, particularly in arid areas, while protecting ecosystems, are key measures against desertification. Due to complicated hydrological processes and their inherent uncertainties, investigations of groundwater recharge conditions are challenging, particularly in arid areas under climate changing conditions. To assist planning to protect against desertification, a fault tree methodology, in conjunction with fuzzy logic and Bayesian data mining, are applied to Minqin Oasis, a highly vulnerable regime in northern China. A set of risk factors is employed within the fault tree framework, with fuzzy logic translating qualitative risk data into probabilities. Bayesian data mining is used to quantify the contribution of each risk factor to the final aggregated risk. The implications of both historical and future climate trends are employed for temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET to assess water table changes under various future scenarios. The findings indicate that water table levels will continue to drop at the rate of 0.6 m yr−1 in the future when climatic effects alone are considered, if agricultural and industrial production capacity remain at 2004 levels.

  14. Science Education Futures: "Great Potential. Could Do Better. Needs to Try Harder"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubusson, Peter; Panizzon, Debra; Corrigan, Deborah

    2016-04-01

    Reviews of science education consistently suggest that there is (another) crisis. They express concern with the status quo and suggest directions that science education might take. In this context, science educators need to consider the current state of play, the needs of generations in a world to come and the characteristics of future science education. The research reported in this paper uses a futures methodology informed by the Delphi technique and scenario thinking. Four science education futures scenarios were constructed over an extended period of consultation. These were particularly influenced by discussion arising from an Australasian Science Education Research Association (ASERA) forum on science education futures. They were presented to a panel of ASERA professors to stimulate consideration of and commentary on the future of science education. The focus in interviews was on identifying and discussing elements of the scenarios that were desirable and likely. Analysis of data indicates divergence on some features of the future and compromise on others. This paper presents the scenarios and findings from interviews with the panel. We highlight key prospects for science education and propose areas for development if we are to produce a future that is designed rather than merely a compromise that arises by default.

  15. Maximising Confidence in Assessment Decision-Making: Current Approaches and Future Strategies for Quality Assurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clayton, Berwyn; Roy, Sue; Booth, Robin; House, Robyn

    2004-01-01

    This report provides a literature review and history of approaches to quality assurance of assessment in the vocational education and training (VET) sector in Australia and overseas. It also examines eight potential models that can be used by individual or groups of assessors within a training organisation. The models include a diagnostic…

  16. Planning for sustainable tourism in southern Pulau Banggi: an assessment of biophysical conditions and their implications for future tourism development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teh, Lydia; Cabanban, Annadel S

    2007-12-01

    A priori assessments of a site's biophysical and socio-economic capacity for accommodating tourism are less common than tourism impact studies. A priori evaluations can provide a contextual understanding of ecological, economic and socio-cultural forces, which shape the prospects for sustainable tourism development at the host destination, and can avert adverse impacts of tourism. We conduct an a priori assessment of the biophysical environment of Pulau Banggi, in the Malaysian state of Sabah for sustainable tourism development. We characterise baseline conditions of the island's marine biodiversity, seasonality, and infrastructure. We then evaluate how existing biophysical conditions will influence options for sustainable tourism development. In particular, we suggest conditions, if there are any, which constitute a limit to future tourism development in terms of compatibility for recreation and resilience to visitor impacts. We find that the biggest constraint is the lack of adequate water and sanitation infrastructure. Blast fishing, although occurring less than once per hour, can potentially destroy the major attraction for tourists. We conclude that while Pulau Banggi possesses natural qualities that are attractive for ecotourism, financial and institutional support must be made available to provide facilities and services that will enable local participation in environmental protection and enhance prospects for future sustainable tourism.

  17. Planning for sustainable tourism in southern Pulau Banggi: an assessment of biophysical conditions and their implications for future tourism development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teh, Lydia; Cabanban, Annadel S

    2007-12-01

    A priori assessments of a site's biophysical and socio-economic capacity for accommodating tourism are less common than tourism impact studies. A priori evaluations can provide a contextual understanding of ecological, economic and socio-cultural forces, which shape the prospects for sustainable tourism development at the host destination, and can avert adverse impacts of tourism. We conduct an a priori assessment of the biophysical environment of Pulau Banggi, in the Malaysian state of Sabah for sustainable tourism development. We characterise baseline conditions of the island's marine biodiversity, seasonality, and infrastructure. We then evaluate how existing biophysical conditions will influence options for sustainable tourism development. In particular, we suggest conditions, if there are any, which constitute a limit to future tourism development in terms of compatibility for recreation and resilience to visitor impacts. We find that the biggest constraint is the lack of adequate water and sanitation infrastructure. Blast fishing, although occurring less than once per hour, can potentially destroy the major attraction for tourists. We conclude that while Pulau Banggi possesses natural qualities that are attractive for ecotourism, financial and institutional support must be made available to provide facilities and services that will enable local participation in environmental protection and enhance prospects for future sustainable tourism. PMID:17204361

  18. Potential Impacts of EOS-Aura Ozone Observations in Future Reanalyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wargan, K.; Pawson, S.; Olsen, M. A.; Witte, J. C.; Ziemke, J. R.; Douglass, A. R.

    2013-12-01

    As a crucial component of Earth's radiative budget, ozone is included in atmospheric reanalyses. Routine satellite observations of backscattered solar radiation (SBUV and TOMS datasets) provide long-term, cross-calibrated ozone records from a series of satellites, but do not have sufficient vertical resolution to resolve the sharp ozone gradients near the tropopause. Capturing this profile structure is essential for separating the stratospheric and tropospheric ozone distributions, which is important as we search for a full assessment of long-term changes in tropospheric ozone. As an important, chemically active pollutant, tropospheric ozone is known to be changing as emissions of its precursors (e.g., oxides of nitrogen) are controlled, but global impacts of such changes are complicated by the importance of the stratosphere as a source for ozone in the troposphere, as well as the roles of the lightning-produced nitrogen monoxide sources and of sinks due to chemical reactions and surface deposition. The EOS-Aura data record provides (to date) eight years of observations of total ozone column (from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument, OMI) and profiles (from the Microwave Limb Sounder, MLS). A low-resolution (2 by 2.5 degree), eight-year long assimilation experiment has been performed as a test for upcoming GMAO reanalyses, which will have higher (half-degree) spatial resolution. The analysis focuses on two aspects of the assimilated product: the degree to which this assimilation correctly separates the lower stratospheric and tropospheric air masses, and the quality of the assimilated tropospheric ozone column. There is a very good agreement between the assimilated product and independent data from ozonesondes and the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder instrument. The analysis emphasizes the consistency of the assimilated ozone with temperature and dynamics, including estimates of the strength of the stratospheric ozone source for the troposphere. While these

  19. Coastal sea level variability in the eastern English Channel: Potentialities for future SWOT applicability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turki, Imen; Laignel, Benoit; Chevalier, Laetitia; Costa, Stephane

    2014-05-01

    Scientists and engineers need to understand the sea level variability in order to provide better estimates of the sea level rise for coastal defense using tide gauges and radar altimetry missions. The natural limitation of the tide gauge records is their geographical sparsity and confinement to coastlines. The future Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will be launched in 2015 over a period of 5 years and will be designated to address this issue. This research was carried out in the framework of the program Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) which is a partnership between NASA and CNES. Using a series of statistical analyses, we point to characterize the sea level variability in the eastern English Channel (western France) from four tide gauges in Dunkirk, Dieppe, Le Havre and Cherbourg for the period 1964-2012. To assess the extent to which tide gauge point observations represent tide gauge data, we compare tide gauge records to SWOT measurements in their vicinity. Results have shown that the bimodality of the sea level, provided by the distribution analysis, can be reproduced by SWOT measurements with an overestimation of both modes and also the extreme values. The rate of the linear regression was also overestimated from 1.7-4 mm/yr to 2.6-5.4 mm/yr. The continuous wavelet transform of sea level records has shown the large-scale variability of annual (1-year band) and interannual cycles (2-6- and 6-12-year bands) in sea level, which can be explained by oceanographic and hydrological factors. High frequency dynamics of the sea level variability at short time-scales were extracted from SWOT measurements. They provide a good survey of the surge events (band of 3-4 months) and the spring-neap tidal cycle (band of 28 days). Then, tide gauges should be used in conjunction with satellite data to infer the full time-scale variability. Further studies are needed to refine the SWOT applicability in coastal areas. Key words: coastal zone, sea level

  20. Assessment and evaluation of geothermal potential in Switzerland; Atlas des ressources geothermiques suisses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andenmatten-Berthoud, N. [Geowatt AG, Zuerich (Switzerland); Kohl, T. [Eidgenossische Technische Hochschule (ETH), Institut de Geophysique, Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2003-07-01

    This report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy presents the first part of a project that aims at assessing the geothermal energy potential of Switzerland's underground. Due to the presence of the Alps the Swiss underground is highly heterogeneous with numerous geologic faults. Geothermal energy assessment has to be carried out region after region. The first steps consisted in collecting existing geological and hydrogeological data and finding out the best appropriate methodology. Analysis was restricted to the Northwest of Switzerland (Basle-Zurich area), which has a dense population - an important factor for future applications - and is better known than others, thanks to previous studies performed in conjunction with site pre-selection for future radioactive waste disposal facilities. In this area, sandstones and limestones are found on the crystalline bottom rock. Mathematical models and computer codes were developed for interpolation and extrapolation of local and regional data. Three dimensional finite-element techniques were used. The results are presented in diagrams and maps.

  1. Corporate marketing potential assessment model in the context of operational, tactical and strategic levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.V. Potrashkova

    2013-12-01

    description; by set of predetermined managerial decisions; by description of parameters of the outer environment; as factors of corporate marketing potential there are considered characteristics of client-enterprise social and economic relations, that were built during previous periods of time; these characteristics include client expectations for products quality and corporate servicing; corporate marketing potential is considered in close interrelation with other components of the aggregate corporate potential (it is presumed that together with the production potential it determines possible volumes of financial inflows and the volume of corporate income from operational activity. Conclusions and directions of further researches. The proposed system of models is intended for acquiring result-oriented assessment of corporate marketing potential in the form of set of possible variants of products sales for different states of corporate environment and different variants of operational, tactical and strategic management of corporate marketing resources. The structure of models which are described in this work reflects the relation of corporate marketing activity results in short, medium and long-term periods of time with the main characteristics of corporate marketing resources, characteristics of corporate social and economic relations with clients, factors of the outer environment and different parameters of the resource management. The future research on this topic should be targeted at the disclosure of the specific analytical form of interrelations of the result-oriented indicators of corporate marketing activity with internal and external factors.

  2. Mitigation potential of horizontal ground coupled heat pumps for current and future climatic conditions: UK environmental modelling and monitoring studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    García González, Raquel; Verhoef, Anne; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Gan, Guohui; Wu, Yupeng; Hughes, Andrew; Mansour, Majdi; Blyth, Eleanor; Finch, Jon; Main, Bruce

    2010-05-01

    model predictions of soil moisture content and soil temperature with measurements at different GCHP locations over the UK. The combined effect of environment dynamics and horizontal GCHP technical properties on long-term GCHP performance will be assessed using a detailed land surface model (JULES: Joint UK Land Environment Simulator, Meteorological Office, UK) with additional equations embedded describing the interaction between GCHP heat exchangers and the surrounding soil. However, a number of key soil physical processes are currently not incorporated in JULES, such as groundwater flow, which, especially in lowland areas, can have an important effect on the heat flow between soil and HE. Furthermore, the interaction between HE and soil may also cause soil vapour and moisture fluxes. These will affect soil thermal conductivity and hence heat flow between the HE and the surrounding soil, which will in turn influence system performance. The project will address these issues. We propose to drive an improved version of JULES (with equations to simulate GCHP exchange embedded), with long-term gridded (1 km) atmospheric, soil and vegetation data (reflecting current and future environmental conditions) to reliably assess the mitigation potential of GCHPs over the entire domain of the UK, where uptake of GCHPs has been low traditionally. In this way we can identify areas that are most suitable for the installation of GCHPs. Only then recommendations can be made to local and regional governments, for example, on how to improve the mitigation potential in less suitable areas by adjusting GCHP configurations or design.

  3. Assessing the neurotoxic potential of methyl ethyl ketoxime in rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulze, G E; Derelanko, M J

    1993-11-01

    The potential of methyl ethyl ketoxime (MEKO) to produce neurotoxicity following acute and subchronic exposure was studied in rats. A Functional Observational Battery, assessment of motor activity, and neuropathology evaluations were conducted in the context of acute and subchronic toxicity studies. Three independent studies are reported: a pilot time-effect study designed to determine the time course and time to peak effect following a single high dose of MEKO, a single-dose neurotoxicity study, and a subchronic (13-week) repeated-dose neurotoxicity study in rats. An acrylamide-positive control group was included in the acute and subchronic studies for comparison with MEKO. Following an acute oral exposure of MEKO at a dose level of 900 mg/kg, locomotor activity was decreased compared to control with maximum decreases occurring between 30 and 60 min following oral administration. In the acute study, transient treatment-related changes in ease of cage removal, ease of handling, and in posture and gait were observed 1 hr after dosing with 900 mg/kg MEKO, as were significant depressions in motor activity. Following a single 300 mg/kg dose, transient MEKO-related changes in gait and aerial righting reflex were noted 1 hr after dosing. All effects were reversible within 24 hr of dosing. The single 100 mg/kg dose of MEKO was without observable effects. No acrylamide-related behavioral effects were noted following a single 50 mg/kg dose. In the subchronic study, transient treatment-related changes in ease of cage removal, ease of handling, and in posture, gait, and aerial righting were observed at the 400 mg/kg/day dose level when assessments were conducted immediately after dose administration. No consistent behavioral effects were observed prior to daily dose administration even after 13 weeks of exposure, indicating a lack of cumulative behavioral effect. No consistent behavioral changes were noted at doses of 125 mg/kg/day and below. Significant dose

  4. Assessment of the current computer literacy and future computer needs of emergency medicine residents and faculty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debehnke, D J; Valley, V T

    1993-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the current computer literacy and future computer needs of emergency medicine residents and faculty to aid in developing a computer literacy curriculum. All emergency medicine residents and full-time faculty from a random sample of emergency medicine residencies were mailed questionnaires assessing current computer familiarity and future computer needs. Twenty-one residencies were surveyed; 15 resident and 17 faculty questionnaires were returned. Thirty-seven percent (116 of 314) faculty and 29% (135 of 470) resident questionnaires were completed and returned. Eighty percent (12 of 15) of residencies had a designated computer for resident use; 93% (14 of 15) had a computer for use in the emergency department. Forty-seven percent of residents owned their own computer; 68% of faculty had a computer in their home, and 52% had computers in their office. Less than 30% of residents and faculty had formal computer training. Residents and faculty rated the current familiarity and future needs for various software applications on a five-point scale. Data were analyzed using the Wilcoxon-Rank Sum Test. Residents and faculty had the most anticipated need for word processing, graphics, literature searching, data base, and patient management programs. Future computer need was rated significantly higher than current computer familiarity in all computer application areas (P < or = .0002). It seems that emergency medicine residents and faculty have adequate access to computers, but minimal computer training. Residents and faculty have a high anticipated need for various basic computer applications.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:8216519

  5. Potential Effects of Future Climate Change on the Bioclimatic Habitat of Ecoregions and Managed Lands in Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafer, S. L.; Saltré, F.; Bartlein, P. J.

    2011-12-01

    Conservation and natural resource managers need information on the potential effects of climate change for the species and ecosystems they manage. We evaluated potential future changes in climate and bioclimatic habitat for ecoregions (as defined by The Nature Conservancy) and managed areas (e.g., national parks) in Oregon, USA. We used future climate simulations for the 21st century from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) data set that were produced under the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario by three coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), UKMO-HadCM3). Projected future climate anomalies were interpolated using geographic-distance-weighted bilinear interpolation to a 30-arc-second (~1-km) grid encompassing the state of Oregon. The interpolated anomalies were applied to 1961-1990 30-year mean climate data (PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State Univ.). Bioclimatic variables (e.g., growing degree days) were calculated using the interpolated climate data and soil data from the CONUS-Soil data set (Miller and White 1998). We chose bioclimatic variables that represent important physiological and environmental limits for Oregon species and habitats of management concern. Maps and multivariate descriptive plots were used to evaluate the direction, magnitude, and spatial patterns of projected future climate and bioclimatic changes. The results indicate which ecoregions and managed areas would experience the largest climate and bioclimatic changes under each of the potential future climate simulations.

  6. [Genetically modified food (food derived from biotechnology): current and future trends in public acceptance and safety assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishiura, Hiroshi; Imai, Hirohisa; Nakao, Hiroyuki; Tsukino, Hiromasa; Kuroda, Yoshiki; Katoh, Takahiko

    2002-11-01

    Current and future trends regarding genetically modified (GM) crops and food stuffs were reviewed, with a particular focus on public acceptance and safety assessment. While GM foods, foods derived from biotechnology, are popular with growers and producers, they are still a matter of some concern among consumers. In fact, our recent surveys showed that Japanese consumers had become uneasy about the potential health risks of genetically modified foods. Many Japanese consumers have only vague ideas about the actual health risks, and they appear to be making decisions simply by rejecting GM food because of non-informed doubts. Although the debate about GM foods has increased in the mass media and scientific journals, few articles concerning direct studies on the potential toxicity or adverse health effects of GM foods have appeared. The roles of relevant international regulatory bodies in ensuring that GM crops and food are safe are therefore have summarized. Finally, the current debate on use of GM crops in agriculture and future trends for development of GM foods with enriched nutrients, better functionality, and medicinal ingredients, which will be of direct benefit to the consumer, are covered.

  7. [Genetically modified food (food derived from biotechnology): current and future trends in public acceptance and safety assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishiura, Hiroshi; Imai, Hirohisa; Nakao, Hiroyuki; Tsukino, Hiromasa; Kuroda, Yoshiki; Katoh, Takahiko

    2002-11-01

    Current and future trends regarding genetically modified (GM) crops and food stuffs were reviewed, with a particular focus on public acceptance and safety assessment. While GM foods, foods derived from biotechnology, are popular with growers and producers, they are still a matter of some concern among consumers. In fact, our recent surveys showed that Japanese consumers had become uneasy about the potential health risks of genetically modified foods. Many Japanese consumers have only vague ideas about the actual health risks, and they appear to be making decisions simply by rejecting GM food because of non-informed doubts. Although the debate about GM foods has increased in the mass media and scientific journals, few articles concerning direct studies on the potential toxicity or adverse health effects of GM foods have appeared. The roles of relevant international regulatory bodies in ensuring that GM crops and food are safe are therefore have summarized. Finally, the current debate on use of GM crops in agriculture and future trends for development of GM foods with enriched nutrients, better functionality, and medicinal ingredients, which will be of direct benefit to the consumer, are covered. PMID:12508467

  8. Assessing the future of crop yield variability in the United States with downscaled climate projections (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobell, D. B.; Urban, D.

    2010-12-01

    One aspect of climate change of particular concern to farmers and food markets is the potential for increased year-to-year variability in crop yields. Recent episodes of food price increases following the Australian drought or Russian heat wave have heightened this concern. Downscaled climate projections that properly capture the magnitude of daily and interannual variability of weather can be useful for projecting future yield variability. Here we examine the potential magnitude and cause of changes in variability of corn yields in the United States up to 2050. Using downscaled climate projections from multiple models, we estimate a distribution of changes in mean and variability of growing season average temperature and precipitation. These projections are then fed into a model of maize yield that explicitly factors in the effect of extremely warm days. Changes in yield variability can result from a shift in mean temperatures coupled with a nonlinear crop response, a shift in climate variability, or a combination of the two. The results are decomposed into these different causes, with implications for future research to reduce uncertainties in projections of future yield variability.

  9. Solar enriched methane production: Assessment of plant potentialities and applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincenzo Piemonte

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The crucial environmental issue due to fossil fuel use in our society and industries and more and more perceived by the communities is stimulating the development of innovative technologies with the scope of reducing GHGs and pollutants emissions, improving plants efficiency and exploiting renewable energy sources. The idea proposed in the present work links this context: a novel hybrid plant for the production of a mixture of methane and hydrogen (20%vol, called enriched-methane, from a steam reforming reactor whose heat duty is supplied by a concentrating solar power (CSP plant by means of a molten salt stream is here conceived, modelled and assessed. The enriched-methane mixture can be applied in methane internal combustion engines (ICE reducing CO, CO2, unburned emissions and improving engine efficiency. Moreover, the residual sensible heat of solar-heated molten salt stream can be used to generate medium-pressure steam and to produce electricity by a steam-turbine. Therefore, the plant proposed is co-generative, producing both hydrogen and electricity from a solar source. The behaviour of methane steam reforming reactor is simulated by means of a 2D mathematical model and the design of a cogenerative solar plant is proposed, evaluating its potentialities in terms of MWh of electricity produced and number of vehicles fed by enriched-methane. A single CSP module (surface requirement = 1.5 hectares coupled with a 4-tubes-and-shell shaped reactor is able to produce 686 tons/year of hydrogen, equivalent to 3.430 tons/year of 20%vol H2-CH4 mixture and 3.097 MWh/year of clean electricity.

  10. Assessing the Potential of Economic-Geographical Position for Russian Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stepan Petrovich Zemtsov

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available On the basis of the review of the scientific literature, the category of economic-geographical position (EGP is formalized. The developed method of international and interregional EGP potential assessment is based on the use of gravity models; in the future, it can be widely used in regional studies to explore the benefits of the spatial location of objects (countries, regions, cities, etc.. These calculations for Russian regions have showed a significant spatial differentiation. The regions located near Moscow and St. Petersburg agglomerations have the maximum potential of interregional EGP, the potential decreases uniformly to the east. The maximum international EGP potential is concentrated in the regions on the coast of the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea and the Sea of Japan. The potential of the Kaliningrad region is in 5.6 times higher than it is for the Tyva Republic. In addition, it is revealed a significant increase in the total EGP potential in the 2000s, and its shift to the southern regions of the Far East due to the growth of the Asia-Pacific economies. The regions with a high and low efficiency of EGP use are revealed. The results are used to identify the connections between the EGP potential and the indicators of socio-economic development. It is found that a favorable EGP is one of the factors for gross regional productgrowth, the growth of investment and foreign trade, migration growth and spread of new technologies. Formalizing EGP as a category allows to use it to predict the spatial changes in the socioeconomic development of Russia.

  11. EASETECH Energy: Life Cycle Assessment of current and future Danish power systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Turconi, Roberto; Damgaard, Anders; Bisinella, Valentina;

    A new life cycle assessment (LCA) model software has been developed by DTU Environment, to facilitate detailed LCA of energy technologies. The model, EASETECH Energy, is dedicated to the specific technologies needed to assess energy production and energy systems and provides an unprecedented...... flexibility with respect to LCA modeling of these technologies. To illustrate the functionality of the model, preliminary results from a LCA of the Danish power system in 2010 as well as two future scenarios for 2030 are presented. In addition to providing a general overview of the environmental profile...... of a renewable based power system, specific focus is placed on the typical challenges encountered when performing an LCA of a power system. Further, the key characteristics of EASETECH Energy that can expedite the set-up of multiple scenarios and enhance transparency in the modelling are explained....

  12. Preliminary assessment of future refining impacts of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A preliminary assessment of the future refining impacts of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 has been performed with the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting Systems. The assessment suggests that gasoline reformulation costs in domestic coastal and near-coastal refining regions in the year 2000 could be 3.5 to 5.6 cents per gallon (in terms of 1989 currency). For heating value equivalent to one gallon of conventional gasoline, the regional total added costs (including reformulation costs) for reformulated gasoline could be 5.9 to 8.0 cents. In blending reformulated gasolines, the reduction of butane for lower Reid vapor pressure and the reduction of reformate for lower aromatics are generally compensated by increased percentages of alkylate and/or straight run naphthas. Relatively larger refinery process capacity additions are required for butane isomerization, alkylation, aromatics recovery, and distillate hydrotreating. 21 refs., 3 figs., 18 tabs

  13. Global River Flood Exposure Assessment Under Climate Change: How Many Asians Are Affected By Flood in the Future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Y.; Iwami, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Physical exposure assessment in this study shows a methodological possibility to be used as a preliminary case study based on a global approach for flood risk assessment consisting of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The purpose of this preliminary study is to estimate potential flood inundation areas as a hazard (both present and future condition), and flood exposure change over the Asia region with consideration of climate change impacts. A flood hazard was characterized by inundation area at the high-resolution of 500 m, location (lowland around rivers), and probability (floods with the 50-year return period). This study introduced a new approach to moderate the global flood hazard and the exposure calculation with significant limitations of current models for continental-scale flood risk assessment by using the flood inundation depth (FID) model based on Manning's steady, uniform flow resistance formula in extreme case during 25-year simulations based on the global BTOP distributed hydrological model using precipitations from the MRI-AGCM 3.2S with SRES A1B emissions scenarios for present-day (daily data from 1980 to 2004), and end-of-the-21st century (daily data from 2075 to 2099). It effectively simplified the complexity between hydrological and topological variables in a flood risk-prone area with assumption of the effects of natural or artificial levees. Exposure was obtained by combining the hazards at the same resolution to identify affected population by calculating with urbanization ratio and population change ratio of Asian countries from a distributed data of global population (Landscan by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory). As a result of the physical exposure assessment from present to the end-of-the-21st century, potential hazards area and affected population are projected to increase 4.2 % (approximately 75,900 km2) and 3.4 % (approximately 35.1 million people) respectively, because Asian population increases about 43% in the future. We found

  14. Benchmarking as a method of assessment of region’s intellectual potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.G. Pererva

    2015-12-01

    innovative development of regions. It is asked to assess the intellectual potential of the region using benchmarking technology. Evaluation of potential IR regions and its impact on development remains a meaningful and necessary in terms more adequate to the real practice of development of economic systems diagrams, algorithms, models and methods of analysis, forecasting and designing the future. In the recognized global market leaders the largest international image companies constantly and consistently there is an active innovative process where in parallel, as the operational policy evolutionary upgrade policy and strategic developments of radical innovations with significant period from idea to its realization. This second direction uses benchmarking as the research methodology with useful results. Conclusions and directions of further researches. A scientific review of the nature and methods of the use of intellectual capital at this stage of economic development of Ukraine has its own challenges, among which are such areas of study as the structure of this capital, capacity assessment at the level of enterprises, regions and the country as a whole, identify the key factors influencing intellectual capital, evaluation of investment efficiency in support of it. Further studies relate to such unsolved issues as the relationship of the IR with the mechanisms of management of innovative development, efficiency of investments in IR, the need to ensure the intellectual development, assessment of intellectual potential of subjects of economic activity.

  15. A Change in the Use of Regulatory Criteria for Assessing Potential Impacts of Sound on Fishes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Fred; Krebs, Justin; Popper, Arthur N

    2016-01-01

    The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) currently uses interim criteria developed on the US West Coast to assess the potential onset of peak and cumulative effects of noise on fishes. Analyses performed for this project provided adequate support for the NMFS to use the peak criterion (i.e., area ensonified by 206 dB re 1 μPa peak sound pressure level [SPL(peak)]) for estimating the incidental take of Hudson River sturgeon. Application of the peak criterion (rather than the cumulative criterion) could have implications for future construction projects because estimates of take using SPL(peak) will generally be considerably lower than estimates of take based on the cumulative sound exposure level.

  16. Future Water Resources Assessment for West African River Basins Under Climate Change, Population Growth and Irrigation Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wisser, D.; Ibrahim, B.; Proussevitch, A. A.

    2014-12-01

    West Africa economies rely on rain-fed agriculture and are extremely vulnerable to changes in precipitation. Results from the most recent generation of regional climate models suggest increases in rainy season rainfall variability (delayed rainy season onset, increased probability of dry spells, shorter rainy season duration) despite a moderate increase in rainy season total precipitation. These changes could potentially have detrimental effects on crop yield and food security. Additional pressures on water resources come from increased demand as a result of high population growth rates (~3% per year). Increased water storage and irrigation can help improve crop yields but future assessments of water resources are needed to prioritize irrigation development as an adaptation option. Increased water abstraction, in turn can impact water availability in downstream regions so that an integrated assessment of future water availability and demand is needed. We use a set of 15 RCM outputs from the CORDEX data archive to drive WBMplus, a hydrological model and simulate water availability under climate change. Based on estimated water constraints, we develop scenarios to expand irrigated areas (from the current 1% of all croplands) and calculate the effects on water scarcity, taking into account increased demand for domestic consumption and livestock water demand, at a spatial resolution of 10 km. Results around the 2050's indicate large potential to develop irrigated areas on ground and surface water and increase local water storage without increasing water scarcity downstream for many river basins in the region that could help alleviate pressures on the cropping systems and thereby increase food security.

  17. Assessing the global warming potential of wooden products from the furniture sector to improve their ecodesign

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main objective of this study was to determine the global warming potential of several wood products as an environmental criterion for their ecodesign. Two methodologies were combined: the quantification of greenhouse gas emissions (equivalent CO2) of several representative wood based products from the furniture sector and the integration of environmental aspects into product design. The products under assessment were classified in two groups: indoor products and outdoor products, depending on their location. “Indoor products” included a convertible cot/bed, a kitchen cabinet, an office table, a living room furniture, a headboard, youth room accessories and a wine crate, while the “Outdoor products” analysed were a ventilated wooden wall and a wooden playground. Spanish wood processing companies located in Galicia (NW Spain) and Catalonia (NE Spain) were analysed in detail. The life cycle of each product was carried out from a cradle-to-gate perspective according to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, using global warming potential as the selected impact category. According to the results, metals, boards and energy use appeared to be the most contributing elements to the environmental impact of the different products under assessment, with total contributions ranging from 40% to 90%. Furthermore, eco-design strategies were proposed by means of the methodology known as Design for the Environment (DfE). Improvement strategies viable for implementation in the short term were considered and analysed in detail, accounting for remarkable reductions in the equivalent CO2 emissions (up to 60%). These strategies would be focused on the use of renewable energies such as photovoltaic cells, the promotion of national fibres or changes in the materials used. Other alternatives to be implemented in the long term can be of potential interest for future developments.

  18. Assessing the global warming potential of wooden products from the furniture sector to improve their ecodesign.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-García, Sara; Gasol, Carles M; Lozano, Raúl García; Moreira, María Teresa; Gabarrell, Xavier; Rieradevall i Pons, Joan; Feijoo, Gumersindo

    2011-12-01

    The main objective of this study was to determine the global warming potential of several wood products as an environmental criterion for their ecodesign. Two methodologies were combined: the quantification of greenhouse gas emissions (equivalent CO(2)) of several representative wood based products from the furniture sector and the integration of environmental aspects into product design. The products under assessment were classified in two groups: indoor products and outdoor products, depending on their location. "Indoor products" included a convertible cot/bed, a kitchen cabinet, an office table, a living room furniture, a headboard, youth room accessories and a wine crate, while the "Outdoor products" analysed were a ventilated wooden wall and a wooden playground. Spanish wood processing companies located in Galicia (NW Spain) and Catalonia (NE Spain) were analysed in detail. The life cycle of each product was carried out from a cradle-to-gate perspective according to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, using global warming potential as the selected impact category. According to the results, metals, boards and energy use appeared to be the most contributing elements to the environmental impact of the different products under assessment, with total contributions ranging from 40% to 90%. Furthermore, eco-design strategies were proposed by means of the methodology known as Design for the Environment (DfE). Improvement strategies viable for implementation in the short term were considered and analysed in detail, accounting for remarkable reductions in the equivalent CO(2) emissions (up to 60%). These strategies would be focused on the use of renewable energies such as photovoltaic cells, the promotion of national fibres or changes in the materials used. Other alternatives to be implemented in the long term can be of potential interest for future developments. PMID:22000917

  19. Assessing the global warming potential of wooden products from the furniture sector to improve their ecodesign

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez-Garcia, Sara, E-mail: sara.gonzalez@usc.es [Division of Biology, Department of Life Sciences, Sir Alexander Fleming Building, Imperial College of London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Department of Chemical Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, 15782- Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Gasol, Carles M.; Lozano, Raul Garcia [Inedit Innovacio, Carretera de Cabrils, km 2 -IRTA-, 08348 Cabrils, Barcelona (Spain); SosteniPrA - UAB-IRTA, Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (UAB), 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain); Moreira, Ma Teresa [Department of Chemical Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, 15782- Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Gabarrell, Xavier; Rieradevall i Pons, Joan [SosteniPrA (UAB-IRTA), Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona UAB, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain); Department of Chemical Engineering, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (UAB), 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain); Feijoo, Gumersindo [Department of Chemical Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, 15782- Santiago de Compostela (Spain)

    2011-12-01

    The main objective of this study was to determine the global warming potential of several wood products as an environmental criterion for their ecodesign. Two methodologies were combined: the quantification of greenhouse gas emissions (equivalent CO{sub 2}) of several representative wood based products from the furniture sector and the integration of environmental aspects into product design. The products under assessment were classified in two groups: indoor products and outdoor products, depending on their location. 'Indoor products' included a convertible cot/bed, a kitchen cabinet, an office table, a living room furniture, a headboard, youth room accessories and a wine crate, while the 'Outdoor products' analysed were a ventilated wooden wall and a wooden playground. Spanish wood processing companies located in Galicia (NW Spain) and Catalonia (NE Spain) were analysed in detail. The life cycle of each product was carried out from a cradle-to-gate perspective according to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, using global warming potential as the selected impact category. According to the results, metals, boards and energy use appeared to be the most contributing elements to the environmental impact of the different products under assessment, with total contributions ranging from 40% to 90%. Furthermore, eco-design strategies were proposed by means of the methodology known as Design for the Environment (DfE). Improvement strategies viable for implementation in the short term were considered and analysed in detail, accounting for remarkable reductions in the equivalent CO{sub 2} emissions (up to 60%). These strategies would be focused on the use of renewable energies such as photovoltaic cells, the promotion of national fibres or changes in the materials used. Other alternatives to be implemented in the long term can be of potential interest for future developments.

  20. Ecological niche modeling of coastal dune plants and future potential distribution in response to climate change and sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza-González, Gabriela; Martínez, M Luisa; Rojas-Soto, Octavio R; Vázquez, Gabriela; Gallego-Fernández, Juan B

    2013-08-01

    Climate change (CC) and sea level rise (SLR) are phenomena that could have severe impacts on the distribution of coastal dune vegetation. To explore this we modeled the climatic niches of six coastal dunes plant species that grow along the shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula, and projected climatic niches to future potential distributions based on two CC scenarios and SLR projections. Our analyses suggest that distribution of coastal plants will be severely limited, and more so in the case of local endemics (Chamaecrista chamaecristoides, Palafoxia lindenii, Cakile edentula). The possibilities of inland migration to the potential 'new shoreline' will be limited by human infrastructure and ecosystem alteration that will lead to a 'coastal squeeze' of the coastal habitats. Finally, we identified areas as future potential refuges for the six species in central Gulf of Mexico, and northern Yucatán Peninsula especially under CC and SLR scenarios. PMID:23625760

  1. Impact of a Cross-Institutional Assessment Designed to Shape Future IT Professionals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grace Tan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available IT graduates need a suite of technical competencies and soft skills married with an understanding of the social and business contexts of the systems that they build. To instill in students an awareness of current IT industry practice coupled with the broader impact of their discipline in society, academics from Victoria University and Federation University initiated an across-institutional collaboration. The initiative resulted in a common formative assessment task undertaken by teams of students enrolled in each institution’s professional development units. An initial survey of students was undertaken prior to the assessment task. The survey queried students’ perceptions of a broad range of professional attitudes and skill sets needed by IT professionals when compared to non-skilled workers. Upon the completion of the assessment task, students were surveyed again as to their perceptions of the importance of personal skills, technical competencies, professional and team working skills, workplace knowledge, and cultural awareness for their future professional lives. Comparisons of both surveys’ results revealed that the cohort had a greater appreciation of technical abilities and team-working skills post the assessment task.

  2. The assessment of future human actions at radioactive waste disposal sites: An international perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For some deep geological disposal systems, the level of confinement provided by the natural and engineered barriers is considered to be so high that the greatest long-term risks associated with waste disposal may arise from the possibility of future human actions breaching the natural and/or engineered barrier systems. Following a Workshop in 1989, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency established a Working Group on Assessment of Future Human Actions (FHA) at Radioactive Waste Disposal Sites. This Group met four times in the period 1991-1993, and has extensively reviewed approaches to and experience of incorporating the effects of FHA into long-term performance assessments (PAs). The Working Group's report reviews the main issues concerning the treatment of FHA, presents a general framework for the quantitative consideration of FHA in radioactive waste disposal programmes, and discusses means to reduce the risks associated with FHA. The Working Group concluded that FHA must be considered in PAs, although FHA where the actors were cognizant of the risks could be ignored. Credit can be taken for no more than several hundred years of active site control; additional efforts should therefore be taken to reduce the risks associated with FHA. International agreement on principles for the construction of FHA scenarios would build confidence, as would further discussion concerning regulatory policies for judging the risks associated with FHA

  3. The Future of Hydropower: Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change, Energy Prices and New Storage Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudard, Ludovic; Madani, Kaveh; Romerio, Franco

    2016-04-01

    The future of hydropower depends on various drivers, and in particular on climate change, electricity market evolution and innovation in new storage technologies. Their impacts on the power plants' profitability can widely differ in regards of scale, timing, and probability of occurrence. In this respect, the risk should not be expressed only in terms of expected revenue, but also of uncertainty. These two aspects must be considered to assess the future of hydropower. This presentation discusses the impacts of climate change, electricity market volatility and competing energy storage's technologies and quantifies them in terms of annual revenue. Our simulations integrate a glacio-hydrological model (GERM) with various electricity market data and models (mean reversion and jump diffusion). The medium (2020-50) and long-term (2070-2100) are considered thanks to various greenhouse gas scenarios (A1B, A2 and RCP3PD) and the stochastic approach for the electricity prices. An algorithm named "threshold acceptance" is used to optimize the reservoir operations. The impacts' scale, and the related uncertainties are presented for Mauvoisin, which is a storage-hydropower plant situated in the Swiss Alps, and two generic pure pumped-storage installations, which are assessed with the prices of 17 European electricity markets. The discussion will highlight the key differences between the impacts brought about by the drivers.

  4. Assessment of Tidal Stream Energy Potential for the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haas, K. A.; Defne, Z.; Jiang, L.; Fritz, H. M.

    2010-12-01

    Tidal streams are high velocity sea currents created by periodic horizontal movement of the tides, often magnified by local topographical features such as headlands, inlets to inland lagoons, and straits. Tidal stream energy extraction is derived from the kinetic energy of the moving flow; analogous to the way a wind turbine operates in air, and as such differs from tidal barrages, which relies on providing a head of water for energy extraction. With the constantly increasing effort in promoting alternative energy, tidal streams have become promising energy sources due to their continuous, predictable and concentrated characteristics. However, the present lack of a full spatial-temporal assessment of tidal currents for the U.S. coastline down to the scale of individual devices is a barrier to the comprehensive development of tidal current energy technology. A methodology for creating a national database of tidal stream energy potential, as well as a GIS tool usable by industry in order to accelerate the market for tidal energy conversion technology has been developed. The tidal flows are simulated using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). The model is calibrated and validated using observations and tidal predictions. The calibration includes adjustments to model parameters such as bottom friction coefficient, changed land/water masks, or increased grid resolutions. A systematic validation process has been developed after defining various parameters to quantify the validation results. In order to determine the total tidal stream power resource, a common method frequently proposed is to estimate it as a fraction of the total kinetic energy flux passing through a vertical section; however, this now has been shown to generally underestimate the total available resource. The total tidal energy flux includes not just the kinetic energy but also the energy flux due to the work done by the pressure force associated with the tidal motion on the water column as well

  5. Identifying and Mitigating Potential Nutrient and Sediment Hot Spots under a Future Scenario in the Missouri River Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, May [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Zhang, Zhonglong [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for large-scale watershed modeling could be useful for evaluating the quality of the water in regions that are dominated by nonpoint sources in order to identify potential “hot spots” for which mitigating strategies could be further developed. An analysis of water quality under future scenarios in which changes in land use would be made to accommodate increased biofuel production was developed for the Missouri River Basin (MoRB) based on a SWAT model application. The analysis covered major agricultural crops and biofuel feedstock in the MoRB, including pasture land, hay, corn, soybeans, wheat, and switchgrass. The analysis examined, at multiple temporal and spatial scales, how nitrate, organic nitrogen, and total nitrogen; phosphorus, organic phosphorus, inorganic phosphorus, and total phosphorus; suspended sediments; and water flow (water yield) would respond to the shifts in land use that would occur under proposed future scenarios. The analysis was conducted at three geospatial scales: (1) large tributary basin scale (two: Upper MoRB and Lower MoRB); (2) regional watershed scale (seven: Upper Missouri River, Middle Missouri River, Middle Lower Missouri River, Lower Missouri River, Yellowstone River, Platte River, and Kansas River); and (3) eight-digit hydrologic unit (HUC-8) subbasin scale (307 subbasins). Results showed that subbasin-level variations were substantial. Nitrogen loadings decreased across the entire Upper MoRB, and they increased in several subbasins in the Lower MoRB. Most nitrate reductions occurred in lateral flow. Also at the subbasin level, phosphorus in organic, sediment, and soluble forms was reduced by 35%, 45%, and 65%, respectively. Suspended sediments increased in 68% of the subbasins. The water yield decreased in 62% of the subbasins. In the Kansas River watershed, the water quality improved significantly with regard to every nitrogen and phosphorus compound. The improvement was

  6. Biocatalyzed processes for production of commodity chemicals: Assessment of future research advances for N-butanol production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingham, J. D.

    1984-01-01

    This report is a summary of assessments by Chem Systems Inc. and a further evaluation of the impacts of research advances on energy efficiency and the potential for future industrial production of acetone-butanol-ethanol (ABE) solvents and other products by biocatalyzed processes. Brief discussions of each of the assessments made by CSI, followed by estimates of minimum projected energy consumption and costs for production of solvents by ABE biocatalyzed processes are included. These assessments and further advances discussed in this report show that substantial decreases in energy consumption and costs are possible on the basis of specific research advances; therefore, it appears that a biocatalyzed process for ABE can be developed that will be competitive with conventional petrochemical processes for production of n-butanol and acetone. (In this work, the ABE process was selected and utilized only as an example for methodology development; other possible bioprocesses for production of commodity chemicals are not intended to be excluded.) It has been estimated that process energy consumption can be decreased by 50%, with a corresponding cost reduction of 15-30% (in comparison with a conventional petrochemical process) by increasing microorganism tolerance to n-butanol and efficient recovery of product solvents from the vapor phase.

  7. Hybrid vehicle potential assessment. Volume 7. Hybrid vehicle review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leschly, K.O.

    1979-09-30

    Review of hybrid vehicles (HVs) built during the past ten years or planned to be built in the near future is presented. An attempt is made to classify and analyze these vehicles to get an overall picture of their key characteristics. The review includes on-road hybrid passenger cars, trucks, vans, and buses.

  8. The Potential of Simulated Environments in Teacher Education: Current and Future Possibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieker, Lisa A.; Rodriguez, Jacqueline A.; Lignugaris/Kraft, Benjamin; Hynes, Michael C.; Hughes, Charles E.

    2014-01-01

    The future of virtual environments is evident in many fields but is just emerging in the field of teacher education. In this article, the authors provide a summary of the evolution of simulation in the field of teacher education and three factors that need to be considered as these environments further develop. The authors provide a specific…

  9. Analysis of the Economic Potential for a Mercosur Rice Futures Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waldemar Antonio da Rocha de Souza

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available World rice production reached 488.4 thousand tons, in 2012. Asian countries are the world’s largest rice producers, followed by Latinamerica, particularly Brazil, where rice is a basic food item. In spite of the clear economic benefits bestowed by commodity futures markets, neither Asia nor Mercosur have implemented a regional rice futures market. In sum, we propose to investigate the feasibility of a Brazilian rice futures contract to serve the Mercosur region by estimating Mercosur rice price dynamics and analyze basis risk and hedging effectiveness for rice market agents in the region, in a simulation framework using a hypothetical regional contract price. Sample data and period was non-probabilistic, for accessibility and convenience. Mercosur rice price dynamics expressed Argentina and Uruguay rice prices moving in synchrony. Brazil rice prices were on lower levels. Also, all three pairs of rice price series are cointegrated, with one cointegrating equation. Again, results can be largely attributed to the different price data used, in Brazil was rough rice, while in Uruguay and Argentina milled white rice with 5%. Despite that, there are preliminary evidences that a Mercosur rice futures market could be feasible.

  10. A Paradigm for a Future of Change in Organizations; A New Potential for Educational Theatre.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swanson, Charles H.

    Rapidly changing organizational systems and individual demands, as outlined by Alvin Toffler in "Future Shock," call for a unique flexibility in change strategies. Although theatre, as reflected in the degree of support by the national budget, is not considered a high priority item, it can provide a valuable social function. With the increasing…

  11. Science Education Futures: "Great Potential. Could Do Better. Needs to Try Harder"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubusson, Peter; Panizzon, Debra; Corrigan, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    Reviews of science education consistently suggest that there is (another) crisis. They express concern with the status quo and suggest directions that science education might take. In this context, science educators need to consider the current state of play, the needs of generations in a world to come and the characteristics of future science…

  12. Assessment of a stochastic downscaling methodology in generating an ensemble of hourly future climate time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Caporali, E.

    2013-04-01

    This study extends a stochastic downscaling methodology to generation of an ensemble of hourly time series of meteorological variables that express possible future climate conditions at a point-scale. The stochastic downscaling uses general circulation model (GCM) realizations and an hourly weather generator, the Advanced WEather GENerator (AWE-GEN). Marginal distributions of factors of change are computed for several climate statistics using a Bayesian methodology that can weight GCM realizations based on the model relative performance with respect to a historical climate and a degree of disagreement in projecting future conditions. A Monte Carlo technique is used to sample the factors of change from their respective marginal distributions. As a comparison with traditional approaches, factors of change are also estimated by averaging GCM realizations. With either approach, the derived factors of change are applied to the climate statistics inferred from historical observations to re-evaluate parameters of the weather generator. The re-parameterized generator yields hourly time series of meteorological variables that can be considered to be representative of future climate conditions. In this study, the time series are generated in an ensemble mode to fully reflect the uncertainty of GCM projections, climate stochasticity, as well as uncertainties of the downscaling procedure. Applications of the methodology in reproducing future climate conditions for the periods of 2000-2009, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100, using the period of 1962-1992 as the historical baseline are discussed for the location of Firenze (Italy). The inferences of the methodology for the period of 2000-2009 are tested against observations to assess reliability of the stochastic downscaling procedure in reproducing statistics of meteorological variables at different time scales.

  13. The State of Low Cost Air Travel in Australia and its Potential for the Future

    OpenAIRE

    Verhelst, John E. M.

    2009-01-01

    This study examines the current state and the market potential of the two Australian low cost airlines, Virgin Blue and Jetstar, using the models and experiences of two successful low cost airlines, Southwest Airlines (USA) and Ryanair (Ireland). Both Southwest Airlines and Ryanair have been operating profitably , and are useful models for comparison of both the performance and market potential of the Australian low cost airlines. Finally, the study analyses the potential for further developm...

  14. T2* mapping for articular cartilage assessment: principles, current applications, and future prospects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hesper, Tobias; Bittersohl, Daniela; Krauspe, Ruediger; Zilkens, Christoph [University Duesseldorf, Department of Orthopaedics Medical Faculty, Duesseldorf (Germany); Hosalkar, Harish S. [Center of Hip Preservation and Children' s Orthopaedics, San Diego, CA (United States); Welsch, Goetz H. [Medical University of Vienna, MR Center, Department of Radiology, Vienna (Austria); Bittersohl, Bernd [University Duesseldorf, Department of Orthopaedics Medical Faculty, Duesseldorf (Germany); Heinrich-Heine University, Medical School, Department of Orthopaedics, Duesseldorf (Germany)

    2014-10-15

    With advances in joint preservation surgery that are intended to alter the course of osteoarthritis by early intervention, accurate and reliable assessment of the cartilage status is critical. Biochemically sensitive MRI techniques can add robust biomarkers for disease onset and progression, and therefore, could be meaningful assessment tools for the diagnosis and follow-up of cartilage abnormalities. T2* mapping could be a good alternative because it would combine the benefits of biochemical cartilage evaluation with remarkable features including short imaging time and the ability of high-resolution three-dimensional cartilage evaluation - without the need for contrast media administration or special hardware. Several in vitro and in vivo studies, which have elaborated on the potential of cartilage T2* assessment in various cartilage disease patterns and grades of degeneration, have been reported. However, much remains to be understood and certain unresolved questions have become apparent with these studies that are crucial to the further application of this technique. This review summarizes the principles of the technique and current applications of T2* mapping for articular cartilage assessment. Limitations of recent studies are discussed and the potential implications for patient care are presented. (orig.)

  15. T2* mapping for articular cartilage assessment: principles, current applications, and future prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    With advances in joint preservation surgery that are intended to alter the course of osteoarthritis by early intervention, accurate and reliable assessment of the cartilage status is critical. Biochemically sensitive MRI techniques can add robust biomarkers for disease onset and progression, and therefore, could be meaningful assessment tools for the diagnosis and follow-up of cartilage abnormalities. T2* mapping could be a good alternative because it would combine the benefits of biochemical cartilage evaluation with remarkable features including short imaging time and the ability of high-resolution three-dimensional cartilage evaluation - without the need for contrast media administration or special hardware. Several in vitro and in vivo studies, which have elaborated on the potential of cartilage T2* assessment in various cartilage disease patterns and grades of degeneration, have been reported. However, much remains to be understood and certain unresolved questions have become apparent with these studies that are crucial to the further application of this technique. This review summarizes the principles of the technique and current applications of T2* mapping for articular cartilage assessment. Limitations of recent studies are discussed and the potential implications for patient care are presented. (orig.)

  16. ASSESSING CHEMICAL HAZARDS AT THE PLUTONIUM FINISHING PLANT (PFP) FOR PLANNING FUTURE D&D

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HOPKINS, A.M.; KLOS, D.B.; MINETT, M.J.

    2007-01-25

    This paper documents the fiscal year (FY) 2006 assessment to evaluate potential chemical and radiological hazards associated with vessels and piping in the former plutonium process areas at Hanford's Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP). Evaluations by PFP engineers as design authorities for specific systems and other subject-matter experts were conducted to identify the chemical hazards associated with transitioning the process areas for the long-term layup of PFP before its eventual final decontamination and decommissioning (D and D). D and D activities in the main process facilities were suspended in September 2005 for a period of between 5 and 10 years. A previous assessment conducted in FY 2003 found that certain activities to mitigate chemical hazards could be deferred safely until the D and D of PFP, which had been scheduled to result in a slab-on-grade condition by 2009. As a result of necessary planning changes, however, D and D activities at PFP will be delayed until after the 2009 time frame. Given the extended project and plant life, it was determined that a review of the plant chemical hazards should be conducted. This review to determine the extended life impact of chemicals is called the ''Plutonium Finishing Plant Chemical Hazards Assessment, FY 2006''. This FY 2006 assessment addresses potential chemical and radiological hazard areas identified by facility personnel and subject-matter experts who reevaluated all the chemical systems (items) from the FY 2003 assessment. This paper provides the results of the FY 2006 chemical hazards assessment and describes the methodology used to assign a hazard ranking to the items reviewed.

  17. 77 FR 31353 - An Assessment of Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, AK

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-25

    ... AGENCY An Assessment of Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, AK AGENCY... of Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, Alaska'' (EPA-910-R-12-004a-d). The... draft ``An Assessment of Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, Alaska''...

  18. Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gårdmark, Anna; Lindegren, Martin; Neuenfeldt, Stefan;

    2013-01-01

    Natural resource management requires approaches to understand and handle sources of uncertainty in future responses of complex systems to human activities. Here we present one such approach, the “biological ensemble modeling approach,” using the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias) as an...... single-species to food web models. These models were analyzed using the “biological ensemble modeling approach” by which we (1) identified a key ecological mechanism explaining the differences in simulated cod responses between models, (2) disentangled the uncertainty caused by differences in ecological...... model assumptions from the statistical uncertainty of future climate, and (3) identified results common for the whole model ensemble. Species interactions greatly influenced the simulated response of cod to fishing and climate, as well as the degree to which the statistical uncertainty of climate...

  19. Impact of future climatic conditions on the potential for soil organic matter priming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reinsch, Sabine; Ambus, Per; Thornton, Barry;

    2013-01-01

    . Soil samples were taken from a heath-land after six years of exposure to elevated carbon dioxide (eCO2) in combination with summer drought (D) and increased temperature (T). Soil C-dynamics were investigated in soils from: (i) ambient, (ii) eCO2, and (iii) plots exposed to the combination of factors...... simulating future climatic conditions (TDeCO2) that simulate conditions predicted for Denmark in 2075. 13C enriched glucose (3 atom% excess) was added to soil microcosms, soil CO2 efflux was measured over a period of two weeks and separated into glucose- and SOM-derived C. Microbial biomass was measured...... using chloroform fumigation extraction, and compound-specific phospholipid fatty acid analysis was used to determine microbial community composition and substrate use. We observed that glucose additions induced SOM priming in ambient and eCO2 treated soils, but not in soil exposed to future climatic...

  20. Redefining the potential applications of dental stem cells: An asset for future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shalu Rai

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent exciting discoveries isolated dental stem cells from the pulp of the primary and permanent teeth, from the periodontal ligament, and from associated healthy tissues. Dental pulp stem cells (DPSCs represent a kind of adult cell colony which has the potent capacity of self-renewing and multilineage differentiation. Stem cell-based tooth engineering is deemed as a promising approach to the making of a biological tooth (bio-tooth or engineering of functional tooth structures. Dental professionals have the opportunity to make their patients aware of these new sources of stem cells that can be stored for future use as new therapies are developed for a range of diseases and injuries. The aim of this article is to review and understand how dental stem cells are being used for regeneration of oral and conversely nonoral tissues. A brief review on banking is also done for storing of these valuable stem cells for future use.

  1. Using scenarios to assess the future supply of NHS nursing staff in England

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buchan James

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper examines issues related to the future supply of registered nursing staff, midwives and health visitors in the National Health Service (NHS in England at a time when there are major public sector funding constraints and as more of these staff are reaching retirement age. Based on available workforce data, the paper reviews different possible scenarios for the supply of NHS nurses over a ten year period, assessing the impact of different numbers of new staff being trained and of varying retirement patterns from the ageing profession. The government in England has more policy levers available than is the case in many other countries. It determines the number of pre-registration training places that are commissioned and funded, it is the major employer, and it also controls the inflow of nurses from other countries through migration policies. Scenario models provide a picture of what the future might look like under various assumptions. These outcomes can be quantified and the results used to assess the risks and opportunities of alternate policy decisions. The approach used in this paper is that of the aggregate deterministic supply model. As part of this exercise, eight scenarios were selected and modelled. These were: A. “No change”- current inflows and outflows B. “Redundancies” - current inflow with higher outflow C. “Improved retention” - current inflow with lower outflow D. “Reduced training intakes A” - lower inflows with lower outflow E. “Reduced training intakes B” - lower inflow with higher outflows F. “Pension time-bomb”- current inflow with a higher rate of retirement G. “Pension delayed”- current inflow with a lower rate of retirement H. “Worst case” - lower inflow and higher outflow including higher retirement Most of the scenarios indicate that a reduction in the supply of nursing staff to NHS England is possible over the next ten years. Small changes in assumptions can make a

  2. Assessment of potential contaminant threats to Iroquois National Wildlife Refuge

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The primary purpose of the NBS Manual is to provide a standardized and systematic approach for identifying existing or potential contaminant problems on National...

  3. Magnetic stimulation of muscle evokes cerebral potentials in assessment of paraspinal muscle spasm.

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1998-01-01

    Objectlve: To assess the muscle spasm by magnetic stimulation of muscle evokes cerebral potentials (MMSEP). Methods: Paraspinal MMSEP and function assessment was recorded in detail before and after treat-

  4. Assessment of the toxic potential of graphene family nanomaterials

    OpenAIRE

    Xiaoqing Guo; Nan Mei

    2014-01-01

    Graphene, a single-atom-thick carbon nanosheet, has attracted great interest as a promising nanomaterial for a variety of bioapplications because of its extraordinary properties. However, the potential for widespread human exposure raises safety concerns about graphene and its derivatives, referred to as graphene-family nanomaterials. This review summarizes recent findings on the toxicological effects and the potential toxicity mechanisms of graphene-family nanomaterials in bacteria, mammalia...

  5. Current situation and future potential of further integration between UK and EU

    OpenAIRE

    Vovchenko Natalia Gennadievna; Epifanova Tatiana Vladimirovna; Pogorelenko Nikita Sergeevich

    2015-01-01

    The article analyses potential consequences of Brexit as well as the current costs and benefits of UK’s membership in the EU, furthermore focusing on alternative agreements that may result between the members.

  6. Potential Areas of Future Oil and Gas Development, Greater Wattenberg Area, Front Range of Colorado (friogdevu)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The potential for oil and gas development in the greater Wattenberg area (GWA), which lies near the Front Range between Denver and Greeley, Colo., in the Denver...

  7. Future of Kenyan electricity generation : an analysis of physical and economical potential and least cost sources

    OpenAIRE

    Torrie, Melanie

    2014-01-01

    Kenya has always had a renewable energy mix, with over 80 percent of electricity generated from renewable sources. As the country continues to develop, and in order to meet the growing demand for electricity, Kenya is considering using non-­‐renewable sources. There are many studies on energy in Africa, and some on the potential for renewable energy in Kenya. However, there are currently no comprehensive studies on the physical potential and costs of electricity generation in Kenya. This pape...

  8. Future changes of wind energy potentials over Europe in a large CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moemken, Julia; Reyers, Mark; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2016-04-01

    A statistical-dynamical downscaling method is used to estimate future changes of wind energy output (Eout) of a benchmark wind turbine across Europe at the regional scale. With this aim, 22 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble are considered. The downscaling method uses circulation weather types and regional climate modelling with the COSMO-CLM model. Future projections are computed for two time periods (2021-2060 and 2061-2100) following two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The CMIP5 ensemble mean response reveals a more likely than not increase of mean annual Eout over Northern and Central Europe and a likely decrease over Southern Europe. There is some uncertainty with respect to the magnitude and the sign of the changes. Higher robustness in future changes is observed for specific seasons. Except from the Mediterranean area, an ensemble mean increase of Eout is simulated for winter and a decreasing for the summer season, resulting in a strong increase of the intra-annual variability for most of Europe. The latter is, in particular, probable during the second half of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario. In general, signals are stronger for 2061-2100 compared to 2021-2060 and for RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5. Regarding changes of the inter-annual variability of Eout for Central Europe, the future projections strongly vary between individual models and also between future periods and scenarios within single models. This study showed for an ensemble of 22 CMIP5 models that changes in the wind energy potentials over Europe may take place in future decades. However, due to the uncertainties detected in this research, further investigations with multi-model ensembles are needed to provide a better quantification and understanding of the future changes.

  9. Coastal Change Potential (CPI) Assessment of Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore (indu_shore)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A coastal change potential index (CPI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future lake-level change within Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore...

  10. Assessing future vegetation trends and restoration prospects in the Karst regions of Southwest China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tong, Xiaowei; Wang, Kelin; Brandt, Martin;

    2016-01-01

    To alleviate the severe rocky desertification and improve the ecological conditions in Southwest China, the national and local Chinese governments have implemented a series of Ecological Restoration Projects since the late 1990s. In this context, remote sensing can be a valuable tool for conserva......To alleviate the severe rocky desertification and improve the ecological conditions in Southwest China, the national and local Chinese governments have implemented a series of Ecological Restoration Projects since the late 1990s. In this context, remote sensing can be a valuable tool...... are utilized. The proposed framework of this analysis has been proven to work well for assessing restoration prospects in the study area, and due to the generic design, the method is expected to be applicable for other areas of complex landscapes in the world to explore future trends of vegetation....

  11. Information resources for assessing health effects from chemical exposure: Challenges, priorities, and future issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seigel, S. [National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD (United States)

    1990-12-31

    Issues related to developing information resources for assessing the health effects from chemical exposure include the question of how to address the individual political issues relevant to identifying and determining the timeliness, scientific credibility, and completeness of such kinds of information resources. One of the important ways for agencies to share information is through connection tables. This type of software is presently being used to build information products for some DHHS agencies. One of the challenges will be to convince vendors of data of the importance of trying to make data files available to communities that need them. In the future, information processing will be conducted with neural networks, object-oriented database management systems, and fuzzy-set technologies, and meta analysis techniques.

  12. Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants

  13. Assessing the impact of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Z.

    2015-12-01

    Future climate changes will place big challenges to the US agricultural system, among which increasing heat stress and precipitation variability were the two major concerns. Reliable prediction of crop productions in response to the increasingly frequent and severe extreme climate is a prerequisite for developing adaptive strategies on agricultural risk management. However, the progress has been slow on quantifying the uncertainty of computational predictions at high spatial resolutions. Here we assessed the risks of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM) model under different climate scenarios. To quantify the uncertainty due to conceptual representations of heat, drought and flooding stress in crop models, we proposed a new strategy of algorithm ensemble in which different methods for simulating crop responses to those extreme climatic events were incorporated into the APSIM. This strategy allowed us to isolate irrelevant structure differences among existing crop models but only focus on the process of interest. Future climate inputs were derived from high-spatial-resolution (12km × 12km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) and 8.5 (RCP 8.5). Based on crop model simulations, we analyzed the magnitude and frequency of heat, drought and flooding stress for the 21st century. We also evaluated the water use efficiency and water deficit on regional scales if farmers were to boost their yield by applying more fertilizers. Finally we proposed spatially explicit adaptation strategies of irrigation and fertilizing for different management zones.

  14. Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-08-01

    OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants.

  15. Scenarios of Future Water use on Mediterranean Islands based on an Integrated Assessment of Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, M. A.

    2006-12-01

    The availability of water in sufficient quantities and adequate quality presents considerable problems on Mediterranean islands. Because of their isolation and thus the impossibility to draw on more distant or more divers aquifers, they rely entirely on precipitation as natural replenishing mechanism. Recent observations indicate decreasing precipitation, increasing evaporation and steadily growing demand for water on the islands. Future climate change will exacerbate this problem, thus increasing the already pertinent vulnerability to droughts. Responsible planning of water management strategies requires scenarios of future supply and demand through an integrated assessment including climate scenarios based on regional climate modeling as well as scenarios on changes in societal and economical determinants of water demand. Constructing such strategies necessitates a thorough understanding about the interdependencies and feedbacks between physical/hydrological and socio-economic determinants of water balances on an island. This has to be based on a solid understanding of past and present developments of these drivers. In the framework of the EU-funded MEDIS project (Towards sustainable water use on Mediterranean Islands: addressing conflicting demands and varying hydrological, social and economic conditions, EVK1-CT-2001-00092), detailed investigations on present vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies to droughts have been carried out on Mallorca, Corsica, Sicily, Crete and Cyprus. This was based on an interdisciplinary study design including hydrological, geophysical, agricultural-, social and political sciences investigations. A central element of the study has been the close interaction with stakeholders on the islands and their contribution to strategy formulation. An important result has been a specification of vulnerability components including: a physical/environmental-, an economical/regulatory- and a social/institutional/political component. Their

  16. Futures Analysis of Urban Land Use and Wetland Change in Saskatoon, Canada: An Application in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anton Sizo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a scenario-based approach to strategic environmental assessment (SEA for wetland trend analysis and land use and land cover (LUC modeling in an urban environment. The application is focused on the Saskatoon urban environment, a rapidly growing urban municipality in Canada’s prairie pothole region. Alternative future LUC was simulated using remote sensing data and city spatial planning documentation using a Markov Chain technique. Two alternatives were developed and compared for LUC change and threats to urban wetland sustainability: a zero alternative that simulated trends in urban development and wetland conservation under a business as usual scenario, in the absence of prescribed planning and zoning actions; and an alternative focused on implementation of current urban development plans, which simulated future LUC to account for prescribed wetland conservation strategies. Results show no improvement in future wetland conditions under the city’s planned growth and wetland conservation scenario versus the business as usual scenario. Results also indicate that a blanket wetland conservation strategy for the city may not be sufficient to overcome the historic trend of urban wetland loss; and that spatially distributed conservation rates, based on individual wetland water catchment LUC peculiarities, may be more effective in terms of wetland conservation. The paper also demonstrates the challenges to applied SEA in a rapidly changing urban planning context, where data are often sparse and inconsistent across the urban region, and provides potential solutions through LUC classification and prediction tools to help overcome data limitations to support land use planning decisions for wetland conservation.

  17. Realistic Energy Saving Potential of Sleep Mode for Existing and Future Mobile Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Micallef, Gilbert; Saker, Louai; Elayoubi, Salah Eddine;

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an extensive overview on an energy saving feature referred to as ‘site sleep mode’, designed for existing and future mobile broadband networks. In addition to providing a detailed understanding of the main concept, the paper also provides various studies and results to highlight...... going through a number of different alternatives of the feature, this is applied to different network topologies, macro-only based networks, and a set of heterogeneous networks that employ the use of small cells in traffic hotspots. Results obtained through detailed case studies show that sleep mode can...

  18. Analyzing Potential Grid Impacts from Future In-Motion Roadway Wireless Power Transfer Scenarios: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meintz, Andrew; Gonder, Jeffrey; Jorgenson, Jennie; Brooker, Aaron

    2016-08-01

    This work examines the grid impact of in-motion roadway wireless power transfer through the examination of the electrification of high-capacity roadways inside a metropolitan area. The work uses data from a regional travel study and the Federal Highway Administration's Highway Performance Monitoring System to estimate the electrified roadway's hourly power use throughout a week. The data are then combined with hourly grid load estimates for the same metropolitan area to determine the overlay of traditional grid load with additional load from a future electrified roadway.

  19. Water resources development in Africa: a review and synthesis of issues, potentials, and strategies for the future

    OpenAIRE

    Rosegrant, Mark W.; Perez, Nicostrato D.

    1997-01-01

    This paper analyzes how water resources development and water policy reform can be deployed to address the twin problems of food insecurity and water scarcity in Africa and, in particular, Sub-Saharan Africa. The paper reviews the current status of water supply and demand, and the existing and potential irrigated land base in Africa; reviews the performance of existing irrigation systems and assesses the magnitude of the potential contribution and cost-effectiveness of new irrigation developm...

  20. A Multivariate and Probabilistic Assessment of Drought in the Pacific Northwest under Observed and Future Climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortuza, M. R.; Demissie, Y. K.

    2015-12-01

    In lieu with the recent and anticipated more server and frequently droughts incidences in Yakima River Basin (YRB), a reliable and comprehensive drought assessment is deemed necessary to avoid major crop production loss and better manage the water right issues in the region during low precipitation and/or snow accumulation years. In this study, we have conducted frequency analysis of hydrological droughts and quantified associated uncertainty in the YRB under both historical and changing climate. Streamflow drought index (SDI) was employed to identify mutually correlated drought characteristics (e.g., severity, duration and peak). The historical and future characteristics of drought were estimated by applying tri-variate copulas probability distribution, which effectively describe the joint distribution and dependence of drought severity, duration, and peak. The associated prediction uncertainty, related to parameters of the joint probability and climate projections, were evaluated using the Bayesian approach with bootstrap resampling. For the climate change scenarios, two future representative pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from University of Idaho's Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) database were considered. The results from the study are expected to provide useful information towards drought risk management in YRB under anticipated climate changes.

  1. Assessing the value of wind generation in future carbon constrained electricity industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper employs a novel Monte-Carlo based generation portfolio assessment tool to explore the implications of increasing wind penetration and carbon prices within future electricity generation portfolios under considerable uncertainty. This tool combines optimal generation mix techniques with Monte Carlo simulation and portfolio analysis methods to determine expected overall generation costs, associated cost uncertainty and expected CO2 emissions for different possible generation portfolios. A case study of an electricity industry with coal, Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT), Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGT) and wind generation options that faces uncertain future fossil-fuel prices, carbon pricing, electricity demand and plant construction costs is presented to illustrate some of the key issues associated with growing wind penetrations. The case study uses half-hourly demand and wind generation data from South Eastern Australia, and regional estimates of new-build plant costs and characteristics. Results suggest that although wind generation generally increases overall industry costs, it reduces associated cost uncertainties and CO2 emissions. However, there are some cases in which wind generation can reduce the overall costs of generation portfolios. The extent to which wind penetration affects industry expected costs and uncertainties depends on the level of carbon price and the conventional technology mix in the portfolios. - Highlights: A probabilistic portfolio analysis tool to assess generation portfolios with wind power. ► Explore the impacts of wind penetrations and carbon prices under uncertainties. ► Wind generation increases overall portfolio costs but reduces cost risks and emissions. ► The value of wind power depends on the carbon price and the technology mix. ► Complex interactions between wind penetration level and carbon pricing.

  2. Potential for Incorporation of Genetic Polymorphism Data in Human Health Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This overview summarizes several EPA assessment publications evaluating the potential impact of genetic polymorphisms in ten metabolizing enzymes on the variability in enzyme function across ethnically diverse populations.

  3. Environmental Epigenetics: Potential Application in Human Health Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Although previous studies have shown a significant involvement of epigenetic dysregulation in human diseases, the applicability of epigenetic data in the current human health risk assessment paradigm is unclear. The goals of this study are to compare the relative sensitivities of...

  4. Potential hazards from future eruptions of Mount St. Helens volanco, Washington

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crandell, D.R.; Mullineaux, D.R.

    1978-01-01

    Mount St. Helens has been more active and more explosive during the last 4500 years than any other volcano in the conterminous United States. Eruptions of that period repeatedly formed domes, large volumes of pumice, hot pyroclastic flows, and during the last 2500 years, lava flows. Some of this activity resulted in mudflows that extended tens of kilometers down the floors of valleys that head at the volcano. This report describes the nature of these phenomena and their threat to people and property; the accompaning maps show areas likely to be affected by future eruptions of Mount St. Helens. Explosive eruptions that produce large volumes of pumice affect large areas because winds can carry the lightweight material hundreds of kilometers from the volcano. Because of prevailing winds, the 180/sup 0/ sector east of the volcano will be affected most often and most severely by future eruptions of this kind. However, the pumice from any one eruption probably will fall in only a small part of that sector. Pyroclastic flows and mudflows also can affect areas far from the volcano, but the areas they affect are smaller because they follow valleys. Mudflows and possibly pyroclastic flows moving rapidly down Swift and Pine Creeks could displace water in Swift Reservoir, which could cause disastrous floods farther downvalley.

  5. Assessment of Soil Liquefaction Potential Based on Numerical Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Choobasti, A. Janalizadeh; Vahdatirad, Mohammad Javad; Torabi, M.;

    2012-01-01

    Paying special attention to geotechnical hazards such as liquefaction in huge civil projects like urban railways especially in susceptible regions to liquefaction is of great importance. A number of approaches to evaluate the potential for initiation of liquefaction, such as Seed and Idriss...... accuracy, also they lack the potential to predict the pore pressure developed in the soil. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out a ground response analysis to obtain pore pressures and shear stresses in the soil due to earthquake loading. Using soil historical, geological and compositional criteria......, a zone of the corridor of Tabriz urban railway line 2 susceptible to liquefaction was recognized. Then, using numerical analysis and cyclic stress method using QUAKE/W finite element code, soil liquefaction potential in susceptible zone was evaluated based on design earthquake....

  6. Meeting the global food demand of the future by engineering crop photosynthesis and yield potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Stephen P; Marshall-Colon, Amy; Zhu, Xin-Guang

    2015-03-26

    Increase in demand for our primary foodstuffs is outstripping increase in yields, an expanding gap that indicates large potential food shortages by mid-century. This comes at a time when yield improvements are slowing or stagnating as the approaches of the Green Revolution reach their biological limits. Photosynthesis, which has been improved little in crops and falls far short of its biological limit, emerges as the key remaining route to increase the genetic yield potential of our major crops. Thus, there is a timely need to accelerate our understanding of the photosynthetic process in crops to allow informed and guided improvements via in-silico-assisted genetic engineering. Potential and emerging approaches to improving crop photosynthetic efficiency are discussed, and the new tools needed to realize these changes are presented.

  7. Assessment of future scenarios for wind erosion sensitivity changes based on ALADIN and REMO regional climate model simulation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mezősi, Gábor; Blanka, Viktória; Bata, Teodóra; Ladányi, Zsuzsanna; Kemény, Gábor; Meyer, Burghard C.

    2016-07-01

    The changes in rate and pattern of wind erosion sensitivity due to climate change were investigated for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 compared to the reference period (1961-1990) in Hungary. The sensitivities of the main influencing factors (soil texture, vegetation cover and climate factor) were evaluated by fuzzy method and a combined wind erosion sensitivity map was compiled. The climate factor, as the driving factor of the changes, was assessed based on observed data for the reference period, while REMO and ALADIN regional climate model simulation data for the future periods. The changes in wind erosion sensitivity were evaluated on potentially affected agricultural land use types, and hot spot areas were allocated. Based on the results, 5-6% of the total agricultural areas were high sensitive areas in the reference period. In the 21st century slight or moderate changes of wind erosion sensitivity can be expected, and mostly `pastures', `complex cultivation patterns', and `land principally occupied by agriculture with significant areas of natural vegetation' are affected. The applied combination of multi-indicator approach and fuzzy analysis provides novelty in the field of land sensitivity assessment. The method is suitable for regional scale analysis of wind erosion sensitivity changes and supports regional planning by allocating priority areas where changes in agro-technics or land use have to be considered.

  8. Assessment of liquefaction potential index for Mumbai city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Dixit

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Mumbai city is the financial capital of India and is fifth most densely populated city in the world. Seismic soil liquefaction is evaluated for Mumbai city in terms of the factors of safety against liquefaction (FS along the depths of soil profiles for different earthquakes with 2% probability of exceedance in 50 yr using standard penetration test (SPT-based simplified empirical procedure. This liquefaction potential is evaluated at 142 representative sites in the city using the borehole records from standard penetration tests. Liquefaction potential index (LPI is evaluated at each borehole location from the obtained factors of safety (FS to predict the potential of liquefaction to cause damage at the surface level at the site of interest. Spatial distribution of soil liquefaction potential is presented in the form of contour maps of LPI values. As the majority of the sites in the city are of reclaimed land, the vulnerability of liquefaction is observed to be very high at many places.

  9. Assessing the potential of change in urban infrastructure systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Susanne Balslev; Elle, Morten

    2000-01-01

    In order to understand the dynamics and the potential of change, urban infrastructure must be seen as socio-technical artefacts. The paper offers a methodology for analysing current infrastructure and a case study demonstrating that social relations plays a significant role as barriers...

  10. EADB: An Estrogenic Activity Database for Assessing Potential Endocrine Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endocrine-active chemicals can potentially have adverse effects on both humans and wildlife. They can interfere with the body’s endocrine system through direct or indirect interactions with many protein targets. Estrogen receptors (ERs) are one of the major targets, and many ...

  11. The Work Sample: Reality-Based Assessment of Vocational Potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mobilization for Youth, Inc., New York, NY.

    Developed as a handbook, this document is intended to serve as a technical guide for establishing vocational evaluation units as a means of screening minorities for successful job placement and fulfillment. In the proposed vocational evaluation units, the potential employee uses the tools, materials, and equipment of a given occupation in a…

  12. Assessment of the Geothermal Potential Within the BPA Marketing Area.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lund, John W.; Allen, Eliot D.

    1980-07-01

    The potential of geothermal energy is estimated that can be used for direct heat applications and electrical power generation within the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) marketing area. The BPA marketing area includes three principal states of Oregon, Washington, and Idaho and portions of California, Montana, Wyoming, Nevada, and Utah bordering on these three states. This area covers approximately 384,000 square miles and has an estimated population of 6,760,000. The total electrical geothermal potential within this marketing area is 4077 MW/sub e/ from hydrothermal resources and 16,000 MW/sub e/ from igneous systems, whereas the total thermal (wellhead) potential is 16.15 x 10/sup 15/ Btu/y. Approximately 200 geothermal resource sites were initially identified within the BPA marketing area. This number was then reduced to about 100 sites thought to be the most promising for development by the year 2000. These 100 sites, due to load area overlap, were grouped into 53 composite sites; 21-3/4 within BPA preference customer areas and 31-1/4 within nonpreference customer areas. The geothermal resource potential was then estimated for high-temperature (> 302/sup 0/F = 150/sup 0/C), intermediate-temperature (194 to 302/sup 0/F = 90 to 150/sup 0/C), and low-temperature (< 194/sup 0/F = 90/sup 0/C) resources.

  13. Mountain Home Air Force Base, Idaho Geothermal Resource Assessment and Future Recommendations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joseph C. Armstrong; Robert P. Breckenridge; Dennis L. Nielson; John W. Shervais; Thomas R. Wood

    2013-03-01

    The U.S. Air Force is facing a number of challenges as it moves into the future, one of the biggest being how to provide safe and secure energy to support base operations. A team of scientists and engineers met at Mountain Home Air Force Base in early 2011 near Boise, Idaho, to discuss the possibility of exploring for geothermal resources under the base. The team identified that there was a reasonable potential for geothermal resources based on data from an existing well. In addition, a regional gravity map helped identify several possible locations for drilling a new well. The team identified several possible sources of funding for this well—the most logical being to use U.S. Department of Energy funds to drill the upper half of the well and U.S. Air Force funds to drill the bottom half of the well. The well was designed as a slimhole well in accordance with State of Idaho Department of Water Resources rules and regulations. Drilling operations commenced at the Mountain Home site in July of 2011 and were completed in January of 2012. Temperatures increased gradually, especially below a depth of 2000 ft. Temperatures increased more rapidly below a depth of 5500 ft. The bottom of the well is at 5976 ft, where a temperature of about 140°C was recorded. The well flowed artesian from a depth below 5600 ft, until it was plugged off with drilling mud. Core samples were collected from the well and are being analyzed to help understand permeability at depth. Additional tests using a televiewer system will be run to evaluate orientation and directions at fractures, especially in the production zone. A final report on the well exploitation will be forthcoming later this year. The Air Force will use it to evaluate the geothermal resource potential for future private development options at Mountain Home Air Force Base. In conclusion, Recommendation for follow-up efforts include the following:

  14. Crowdsourcing for climate and atmospheric sciences: current status and future potential

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Muller, C.L.; Chapman, L.; Johnston, S.; Kidd, C.; Illingworth, S.; Foody, G.; Overeem, A.; Leigh, R.R.

    2015-01-01

    Crowdsourcing is traditionally defined as obtaining data or information by enlisting the services of a (potentially large) number of people. However, due to recent innovations, this definition can now be expanded to include ‘and/or from a range of public sensors, typically connected via the Internet

  15. Recovery of valuable nitrogen compounds from agricultural liquid wastes: potential possibilities, bottlenecks and future technological challenges.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rulkens, W.H.; Klapwijk, A.; Willers, H.C.

    1998-01-01

    Agricultural liquid livestock wastes are an important potential source of valuable nitrogen-containing compounds such as ammonia and proteins. Large volumetric quantities of these wastes are produced in areas with a high livestock production density. Much technological research has been carried out

  16. THE ASSESSMENT OF ENTREPRENEURIAL PERSONALITY: THE CURRENT SITUATION AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Suárez-Álvarez

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Entrepreneurship is fundamental in modern society because it represents an important source of innovation, employment, productivity, and growth. While the first theoretical models arose from economic and sociological approaches, psychology provides models that integrate different aspects such as cognitions, attitudes and personality, which allow a more detailed study. The purpose of this paper is to show the main contributions of psychology to the assessment of the enterprising personality. For this purpose, the main models and instruments developed to date were reviewed. The results confirm that the enterprising personality has a multidimensional structure and eight personality traits can be highlighted: achievement motivation, risk-taking, autonomy, self-efficacy, stress tolerance, innovativeness, internal locus of control, and optimism. From a methodological point of view, Item Response Theory and Computerised Adaptive Tests represent the most advanced and modern methods for assessing enterprising personality. There are currently several measurement instruments available. Future areas of research should be directed at the construction of multidimensional models as well as providing alternatives that facilitate a reduction in social desirability and other biases inherent in self-reports.

  17. Macro-economic assessment of flood risk in Italy under current and future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrera, Lorenzo; Koks, Elco; Mysiak, Jaroslav; Aerts, Jeroen; Standardi, Gabriele

    2014-05-01

    This paper explores an integrated methodology for assessing direct and indirect costs of fluvial flooding to estimate current and future fluvial flood risk in Italy. Our methodology combines a Geographic Information System spatial approach, with a general economic equilibrium approach using a downscaled modified version of a Computable General Equilibrium model at NUTS2 scale. Given the level of uncertainty in the behavior of disaster-affected economies, the simulation considers a wide range of business recovery periods. We calculate expected annual losses for each NUTS2 region, and exceedence probability curves to determine probable maximum losses. Given a certain acceptable level of risk, we describe the conditions of flood protection and business recovery periods under which losses are contained within this limit. Because of the difference between direct costs, which are an overestimation of stock losses, and indirect costs, which represent the macro-economic effects, our results have different policy meanings. While the former is relevant for post-disaster recovery, the latter is more relevant for public policy issues, particularly for cost-benefit analysis and resilience assessment.

  18. State Support for Clean Energy Deployment. Lessons Learned for Potential Future Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kubert, Charles [Clean Energy States Alliance, Montpelier, VT (United States); Sinclair, Mark [Clean Energy States Alliance, Montpelier, VT (United States)

    2011-04-01

    Proposed federal clean energy initiatives and climate legislation have suggested significant increases to federal funding for clean energy deployment and investment. Many states and utilities have over a decade of experience and spend billions of public dollars every year to support EE/RE deployment through programs that reduce the cost of technologies, provide financing for EE/RE projects, offer technical assistance, and educate market participants. Meanwhile, constraints on public expenditures at all levels of government continue to call upon such programs to demonstrate their value. This report reviews the results of these programs and the specific financial incentives and financing tools used to encourage clean energy investment. Lessons from such programs could be used to inform the future application of EE/RE incentives and financing tools. These lessons learned apply to use of distributed resources and the historical focus of these EE/RE programs.

  19. State Support for Clean Energy Deployment: Lessons Learned for Potential Future Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kubert, C.; Sinclair, M.

    2011-04-01

    Proposed federal clean energy initiatives and climate legislation have suggested significant increases to federal funding for clean energy deployment and investment. Many states and utilities have over a decade of experience and spend billions of public dollars every year to support EE/RE deployment through programs that reduce the cost of technologies, provide financing for EE/RE projects, offer technical assistance, and educate market participants. Meanwhile, constraints on public expenditures at all levels of government continue to call upon such programs to demonstrate their value. This report reviews the results of these programs and the specific financial incentives and financing tools used to encourage clean energy investment. Lessons from such programs could be used to inform the future application of EE/RE incentives and financing tools. These lessons learned apply to use of distributed resources and the historical focus of these EE/RE programs.

  20. The future of high energy gamma ray astronomy and its potential astrophysical implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fichtel, C. E.

    1982-01-01

    Future satellites should carry instruments having over an order of magnitude greater sensitivity than those flown thus far as well as improved energy and angular resolution. The information to be obtained from these experiments should greatly enhance knowledge of: the very energetic and nuclear processes associated with compact objects; the structure of our galaxy; the origin and dynamic pressure effects of the cosmic rays; the high energy particles and energetic processes in other galaxies; and the degree of matter-antimatter symmetry of the universe. The relevant aspects of extragalactic gamma ray phenomena are emphasized along with the instruments planned. The high energy gamma ray results of forthcoming programs such as GAMMA-1 and the Gamma Ray Observatory should justify even more sophisticated telescopes. These advanced instruments might be placed on the space station currently being considered by NASA.

  1. Recent eruptive history of Mount Hood, Oregon, and potential hazards from future eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crandell, Dwight Raymond

    1980-01-01

    Each of three major eruptive periods at Mount Hood (12,000-15,000(?), 1,500-1,800, and 200-300 years ago) produced dacite domes, pyroclastic flows, and mudflows, but virtually no pumice. Most of the fine lithic ash that mantles the slopes of the volcano and the adjacent mountains fell from ash clouds that accompanied the pyroclastic flows. Widely scattered pumice lapilli that are present at the ground surface on the south, east, and north sides of Mount Hood may have been erupted during the mid-1800's, when the last known activity of the volcano occurred. The geologically recent history of Mount Hood suggests that the most likely eruptive event in the future will be the formation of another dome, probably within the present south-facing crater. The principal hazards that could accompany dome formation include pyroclastic flows and mudflows moving from the upper slopes of the volcano down the floors of valleys. Ash clouds which accompany pyroclastic flows may deposit as much as a meter of fine ash close to their source, and as much as 20 centimeters at a distance of 11 kilometers downwind from the pyroclastic flows. Other hazards that could result from such eruptions include laterally directed explosive blasts that could propel rock fragments outward from the sides of a dome at high speed, and toxic volcanic gases. The scarcity of pumiceous ash erupted during the last 15,000 years suggests that explosive pumice eruptions are not a major hazard at Mount Hood; thus, there seems to be little danger that such an eruption will significantly affect the Portland (Oregon) metropolitan area in the near future.

  2. Potential Bias in Projecting Future Regional Megadrought Risk: Insights From A Global Data-Model Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.; Ault, T.; Cole, J. E.; Fasullo, J.; Loope, G. R.; Parsons, L. A.; Stevenson, S.

    2015-12-01

    Megadrought is one of the most significant and costly climate extremes, and one that stakeholders (e.g., water and other resource managers) the world over wish to understand better; in particular, they need estimates of the risk of severe droughts as a function of drought frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. In many dry-climate regions of the globe, megadrought is synonymous with multi-decadal drought. However, in other regions, megadrought can be defined as extended drought, mostly not seen in the period of instrumental observations, and that would have large impacts if it were to occur in the future. New and published paleoclimatic observations allow us to understand the spectrum of drought in many regions of the globe; droughts exceeding 50 years have occurred in recent Earth history in southwestern North America, sub-Saharan Africa, the Mediterranean and Australia, whereas shorter megadroughts have occurred in Monsoon Asia, Amazonia and elsewhere. Data-model comparisons for regions with sufficiently long (e.g., 1000-2000 years) records of observed hydroclimatic variability suggest that state-of-the-art models can provide realistic estimates of interannual to decadal drought risk, but underestimate the risk of megadrought. Likely reasons for this shortcoming are the lack of sufficient multi-decadal variability in simulations of the past and future, plus an underappreciated understanding about how temperature variability and land-surface feedbacks interact with hydrological and ecological drought, as well as the roles played by unusually wet hydroclimatic extremes (e.g., ENSO related) in ending droughts of long duration. Paleoclimatic records also provide the opportunity to estimate how much models underestimate megadrought risk as a function of locale, frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration; they also aid in providing stakeholders with bias-corrected estimates of megadrought risk.

  3. Assessment of xylanase activity in dry storage as a potential method of reducing feedstock cost.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, William A; Thompson, David N; Thompson, Vicki S; Radtke, Corey W; Carter, Brady

    2009-05-01

    Enzymatic preprocessing of lignocellulosic biomass in dry storage systems has the potential to improve feedstock characteristics and lower ethanol production costs. To assess the potential for endoxylanase activity at low water contents, endoxylanase activity was tested using a refined wheat arabinoxylan substrate and three commercial endoxylanases over the water activity range 0.21-1.0, corresponding to water contents of 5% to >60% (dry basis). Homogeneously mixed dry samples were prepared at a fixed enzyme to substrate ratio and incubated in chambers at a variety of fixed water activities. Replicates were sacrificed periodically, and endoxylanase activity was quantified as an increase in reducing sugar relative to desiccant-stored controls. Endoxylanase activity was observed at water activities over 0.91 in all enzyme preparations in less than 4 days and at a water activity of 0.59 in less than 1 week in two preparations. Endoxylanase activity after storage was confirmed for selected desiccant-stored controls by incubation at 100% relative humidity. Water content to water activity relationships were determined for three lignocellulosic substrates, and results indicate that two endoxylanase preparations retained limited activity as low as 7% to 13% water content (dry basis), which is well within the range of water contents representative of dry biomass storage. Future work will examine the effects of endoxylanase activity toward substrates such as corn stover, wheat straw, and switchgrass in low water content environments.

  4. Public Review Draft: A Method for Assessing Carbon Stocks, Carbon Sequestration, and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes in Ecosystems of the United States Under Present Conditions and Future Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Rob; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2010-01-01

    The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, authorizes the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation's ecosystems focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, shrub and grasslands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries), (2) an estimation of annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities), and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land use and land cover, and wildlfires. The purpose of this draft methodology for public review is to propose a technical plan to conduct the assessment. Within the methodology, the concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes used for the assessment follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess future potential conditions based on a set of projected scenarios. The scenario framework is constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with initial reference land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management scenarios. An additional three LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each

  5. Future extreme precipitation assessment in Western Norway – using a linear model approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. N. Caroletti

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The need for local assessments of precipitation has grown in recent years due to the increase in precipitation extremes and the widespread awareness about findings of the IPCC 2003 Report on climate change. General circulation models, the most commonly used tool for climate predictions, show an increase in precipitation due to an increase in greenhouse gases (Cubash and Meehl, 2001. It is suggested that changes in extreme precipitation are easier to detect and attribute to global warming than changes in mean annual precipitation (Groisman et al., 2005. However, because of their coarse resolution, the global models are not suited to local assessments. Thus, downscaling of data is required.

    A Linear Model (Smith and Barstad, 2004 is used to dynamically downscale orographic precipitation over Western Norway from twelve General Circulation Model simulations based on the A1B emissions scenario (IPCC, 2003. An assessment of the changes to future Orographic Precipitation (2046–2065 and 2081–2100 time periods versus the historical control period (1971–2000 is carried out. Results show an increased number of Orographic Precipitation days and an increased Orographic Precipitation intensity. Extreme precipitation events are up to 20% more intense than the 1971–2000 values. Extremes are defined by the exceedence of the 99%-ile threshold in the time slice. Using station-based observations from the control period, the results from downscaling can be used to generate simulated precipitation histograms at selected stations.

    The Linear Model approach also allows for simulated changes in precipitation to be disaggregated according to their causal source: (a the role of topography and (b changes to the amount of moisture delivery to the site. The latter can be additionaly separated into moisture content changes due to: (i temperature; (ii wind speed; (iii stability. An analysis of these results suggests a strong role for warming in

  6. Published assessments bearing on the future use of ceramic superconductors by the electric power sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giese, R.F.; Wolsky, A.M.

    1992-08-25

    Much has been written about ceramic superconductors since their discovery in 1986. Most of this writing reports and describes scientific research. However, some authors have sought to put this research in context: to assess where the field stands, what might be technically feasible, what might be economically feasible, and what potential impacts ceramic superconductors will bring to the electric power sector. This report`s purpose is to make the results of already published assessments readily available. To that end, this report lists and provides abstracts for various technical and economic assessments related to applications of High-Temperature Superconductors (HTS) to the electric power sector. Those studies deemed most important are identified and summarized. These assessments were identified by two means. First, members of the Executive Committee identified some reports as worthy of consideration and forwarded them to Argonne National Laboratory. Twelve assessments were selected. Each of these is listed and summarized in the following section. Second, a bibliographic search was performed on five databases: INSPEC, NTIS, COMPENDEX, Energy Science & Technology, and Electric Power Database. The search consisted of first selecting all papers related to High Temperature Superconductors. Then papers related to SMES, cables, generators, motors, fault current limiters, or electric utilities were selected. When suitable variants of the above terms were included, this resulted in a selection of 493 citations. These citations were subjected to review by the authors. A number of citations were determined to be inappropriate (e.g. a number referred to digital transmission lines for electronics and communications applications). The reduced list consisted of 200 entries. Each of these citations, with an abstract, is presented in the following sections.

  7. Published assessments bearing on the future use of ceramic superconductors by the electric power sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giese, R.F.; Wolsky, A.M.

    1992-08-25

    Much has been written about ceramic superconductors since their discovery in 1986. Most of this writing reports and describes scientific research. However, some authors have sought to put this research in context: to assess where the field stands, what might be technically feasible, what might be economically feasible, and what potential impacts ceramic superconductors will bring to the electric power sector. This report's purpose is to make the results of already published assessments readily available. To that end, this report lists and provides abstracts for various technical and economic assessments related to applications of High-Temperature Superconductors (HTS) to the electric power sector. Those studies deemed most important are identified and summarized. These assessments were identified by two means. First, members of the Executive Committee identified some reports as worthy of consideration and forwarded them to Argonne National Laboratory. Twelve assessments were selected. Each of these is listed and summarized in the following section. Second, a bibliographic search was performed on five databases: INSPEC, NTIS, COMPENDEX, Energy Science Technology, and Electric Power Database. The search consisted of first selecting all papers related to High Temperature Superconductors. Then papers related to SMES, cables, generators, motors, fault current limiters, or electric utilities were selected. When suitable variants of the above terms were included, this resulted in a selection of 493 citations. These citations were subjected to review by the authors. A number of citations were determined to be inappropriate (e.g. a number referred to digital transmission lines for electronics and communications applications). The reduced list consisted of 200 entries. Each of these citations, with an abstract, is presented in the following sections.

  8. Published assessments bearing on the future use of ceramic superconductors by the electric power sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Much has been written about ceramic superconductors since their discovery in 1986. Most of this writing reports and describes scientific research. However, some authors have sought to put this research in context: to assess where the field stands, what might be technically feasible, what might be economically feasible, and what potential impacts ceramic superconductors will bring to the electric power sector. This report's purpose is to make the results of already published assessments readily available. To that end, this report lists and provides abstracts for various technical and economic assessments related to applications of High-Temperature Superconductors (HTS) to the electric power sector. Those studies deemed most important are identified and summarized. These assessments were identified by two means. First, members of the Executive Committee identified some reports as worthy of consideration and forwarded them to Argonne National Laboratory. Twelve assessments were selected. Each of these is listed and summarized in the following section. Second, a bibliographic search was performed on five databases: INSPEC, NTIS, COMPENDEX, Energy Science ampersand Technology, and Electric Power Database. The search consisted of first selecting all papers related to High Temperature Superconductors. Then papers related to SMES, cables, generators, motors, fault current limiters, or electric utilities were selected. When suitable variants of the above terms were included, this resulted in a selection of 493 citations. These citations were subjected to review by the authors. A number of citations were determined to be inappropriate (e.g. a number referred to digital transmission lines for electronics and communications applications). The reduced list consisted of 200 entries. Each of these citations, with an abstract, is presented in the following sections

  9. NASA's past, current and potential future support in bringing climate projection information to the decision support level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, T. J.

    2015-12-01

    It is common that we use global climate models or Earth system models to perform climate projection into the future. Because of the long integration time and the tremendous computing resources required for such a projection, the model resolution is typically not at a spatial scale fine enough for climate assessment or decision support purposes. A number of "downscaling technologies" have been developed over the years to bring the climate projection information to the local level for management and policy decision support purposes. In the past couple of years, NASA supported a number of regional to local climate projection activities: NASA Climate Adaption Science Investigators focused on climate resilience at NASA center level, National Climate Assessment (NCA) Capacity Building focused on data sets and tools to support NCA, NCA Indicators focused on creating simple indicators specifically designed for decision support, Assessing the Fidelity of Dynamical Downscaling with the NASA Unifies-WRF Model focused on understanding the credibility of dynamical downscaling technique using a regional climate model. All of these projects have a component in creating or using downscaled climate information. With the consequence of climate change beginning to emerge, there is a continuous need to better quantify the quality of downscaled climate projections. In this talk I will give an overview on NASA's efforts to understand the various techniques, the limitations including the risks of using these techniques, and finally, I will provide a view on possible future researches in this area.

  10. Assessing the potential value of bridge monitoring systems

    OpenAIRE

    Vardanega, Paul; Webb, Graham; Fidler, Paul; Middleton, Campbell

    2016-01-01

    On-going developments in smart technologies such as wireless sensor networks, micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS), computer vision, fibre optics and advanced data interpretation techniques may revolutionise structural health monitoring (SHM). Dedicated SHM of bridge assets has the potential to produce valuable data-sets and provide owners and managers with information to aid with key questions such as: current performance, margins of safety, actual loading, stress history and risk of fati...

  11. ASSESSING THE PHOTOGRAMMETRIC POTENTIAL OF CAMERAS IN PORTABLE DEVICES

    OpenAIRE

    Smith, M J; Kokkas, N.

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, there have been an increasing number of portable devices, tablets and Smartphone’s employing high-resolution digital cameras to satisfy consumer demand. In most cases, these cameras are designed primarily for capturing visually pleasing images and the potential of using Smartphone and tablet cameras for metric applications remains uncertain. The compact nature of the host’s devices leads to very small cameras and therefore smaller geometric characteristics. This also makes th...

  12. Assessment of leaching potential of highly leaded jewelry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weidenhamer, Jeffrey D; Newman, Breinn E; Clever, Ashley

    2010-05-15

    Lead is a potent neurotoxin particularly toxic to young children, and in response to recent poisonings of children and high levels of lead contamination in children's jewelry, US regulatory standards for lead content in these items have become much more stringent. Parents are often advised to throw out suspect items in the trash. While household wastes are generally exempt from consideration as hazardous waste, the potential for leaching of hazardous quantities of lead from such items is unknown. A modified Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP), in which intact jewelry components were subjected to leaching, was used to evaluate the potential for leaching of lead from highly leaded jewelry. Of 62 jewelry components tested, 61 exceeded the US regulatory standard for lead of 5mg/L, and leachate lead concentrations averaged 1460 mg/L. Twenty-six of the component items tested yielded TCLP lead concentrations exceeding 1000 mg/L. These results demonstrate that highly leaded jewelry items may leach significant amounts of lead, and provide another reason to remove lead from these products. Furthermore, these results suggest that while the volume of such items in the municipal solid waste (MSW) stream is small, they have the potential to contribute significant quantities of lead to MSW leachates.

  13. Assessing the Photogrammetric Potential of Cameras in Portable Devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, M. J.; Kokkas, N.

    2012-07-01

    In recent years, there have been an increasing number of portable devices, tablets and Smartphone's employing high-resolution digital cameras to satisfy consumer demand. In most cases, these cameras are designed primarily for capturing visually pleasing images and the potential of using Smartphone and tablet cameras for metric applications remains uncertain. The compact nature of the host's devices leads to very small cameras and therefore smaller geometric characteristics. This also makes them extremely portable and with their integration into a multi-function device, which is part of the basic unit cost often makes them readily available. Many application specialists may find them an attractive proposition where some modest photogrammetric capability would be useful. This paper investigates the geometric potential of these cameras for close range photogrammetric applications by: • investigating their geometric characteristics using the self-calibration method of camera calibration and comparing results from a state-of-the-art Digital SLR camera. • investigating their capability for 3D building modelling. Again, these results will be compared with findings from results obtained from a Digital SLR camera. The early results presented show that the iPhone has greater potential for photogrammetric use than the iPad.

  14. Modelling soil organic carbon in Danish agricultural soils suggests low potential for future carbon sequestration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taghizadeh-Toosi, Arezoo; Olesen, Jørgen Eivind

    2016-01-01

    over the same period of time. The results of the C-TOOL simulations demonstrated that application of organic manure, use of cover crop, and converting the croplands to grassland had the potential to increase SOC in Danish mineral soils. The simulated data also suggested that C-TOOL gave a reasonably......Soil organic carbon (SOC) is in active exchange with the atmosphere. The amount of organic carbon (OC) input into the soil and SOC turnover rate are important for predicting the carbon (C) sequestration potential of soils subject to changes in land-use and climate. The C-TOOL model was developed...... to simulate the dynamics of SOC storage on medium- to long-term trends in the whole soil profile (0–100 cm), and was used to compare SOC changes under typical Danish farming conditions for two sites in Denmark having the greatest possible temperature differences for the period 1986 and 2012. For this purpose...

  15. Safety assessment of potential food ingredients in canine hepatocytes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Leshuai W; Koci, Juraj; Jeffery, Brett; Riviere, Jim E; Monteiro-Riviere, Nancy A

    2015-04-01

    This research aimed to develop in vitro methods to assess hazard of canine food ingredients. Canine hepatocytes were harvested and cell viability of clove-leaf oil (CLO), eugenol (EUG), lemongrass oil (LGO), guanosine monophosphate (GMP), inosine monophosphate (IMP), sorbose, ginger-root extract (GRE), cinnamon-bark oil (CBO), cinnamaldehyde (CINA), thymol oil (TO), thymol (THYM), and citric acid were assessed with positive controls: acetaminophen (APAP), aflatoxin B1 and xylitol. Molecular Toxicology PathwayFinder array (MTPF) analyzed toxicity mechanisms for LGO. LC50 for APAP was similar among human (3.45), rat (2.35), dog (4.26 mg/ml). Aflatoxin B1 had an LC50 of 4.43 (human), 5.78 (rat) and 6.05 (dog) µg/ml; xylitol did not decrease viability. LC50 of CLO (0.185 ± 0.075(SD)), EUG (0.165 ± 0.112), LGO (0.220 ± 0.012), GRE (1.54 ± 0.31) mg/ml; GMP (166.03 ± 41.83), GMP + IMP (208.67 ± 15.27) mM; CBO (0.08 ± 0.03), CINA (0.11 ± 0.01), TO (0.21 ± 0.03), THYM (0.05 ± 0.01), citric acid (1.58 ± 0.08) mg/ml, while sorbose was non-toxic. LGO induced upregulation of 16 and down-regulation of 24 genes, which CYP and heat shock most affected. These results suggest that in vitro assays such as this may be useful for hazard assessment of food ingredients for altered hepatic function. PMID:25660481

  16. Trends and Future Potential of Payment for Ecosystem Services to Alleviate Rural Poverty in Developing Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Scherr, Sara J.; Milder, Jeffrey C.; Carina Bracer

    2010-01-01

    Payment for ecosystem services (PES) is a market-based approach to environmental management that compensates land stewards for ecosystem conservation and restoration. Because low-income households and communities control much of the ecologically sensitive land in developing countries, they potentially stand to gain from PES, as environmentally responsible stewardship is assigned a value by various actors in society. To date, however, instances of PES benefiting the poor have been limited main...

  17. Applying quantitative structure-activity relationship approaches to nanotoxicology: Current status and future potential

    OpenAIRE

    Winkler, David; Mombelli, Enrico; Pietroiusti, Antonio; TRAN C. Lang; Worth, Andrew; Fadeel, Bengt; MCCALL Maxine

    2013-01-01

    The potential (eco)toxicological hazard posed by engineered nanoparticles is a major scientific and societal concern since several industrial sectors are exploiting the innovative properties of nanostructures resulting in their large-scale production. Many consumer products contain nanomaterials and, given their complex life-cycle, it is essential to anticipate their (eco)toxicological properties in a fast and inexpensive way in order to mitigate adverse effects on human health and the enviro...

  18. Assessment of the phototoxic potential of cosmetic products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hans, Rajendra K; Agrawal, Neeraj; Verma, Kiran; Misra, Rajendra B; Ray, Ratan S; Farooq, Mohammad

    2008-05-01

    The cosmetics are nontoxic or less toxic in perse but photoactivation may then sensitize and could produce additional phototoxicity. Phototoxicity assessment of ten different lipsticks and eight facial creams was conducted. Results revealed that six lipsticks and five facial creams generated reactive oxygen species (ROS), produced haemolysis and caused lipid peroxidation in human erythrocytes (in vitro) under sunlight exposure. Seven creams and one lipstick were alkaline while one cream and two lipsticks were acidic. The test lipsticks and creams showed absorption in UV/visible range. The study demonstrated synergistic action of cosmetic products and sunlight. Therefore, sunlight exposure should be avoided after the use of photosensitive cosmetics. PMID:18282649

  19. POTENTIAL WILD EDIBLE PLANT RESOURCES FROM MAHARASHTRA: FUTURE PROSPECTS FOR THEIR CONSERVATION AND IMPROVEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DSANJAYKUMAR R. RAHANGDALE1* AND SAVITA S. RAHANGDALE2

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: All the present day established crops are evolved in due course of time, through continuous efforts of human being for crop improvement via, cultivation, selection and breeding. Even today many plant resources from forests are being utilized in crop breeding as source of resistant genes against insect pests, fungal, bacterial and viral pathogens, adverse agro-climatic conditions, for quality improvement in terms of different proteins, vitamins and also appearance; thereby broadening the genetic base of cultivars. Many others, e.g., Caralluma adscendens (Roxb. R. Br., Chlorophytum borivilianum Sant. & Fernandez. and Jasminum malabaricum Wight are directly brought under cultivation from wilderness for food, medicine and ornamental purpose. Considering the potential and need for new resources, a study was undertaken to explore the diversity, plant parts used, process of preparation, scope and potential of the wild edible plant species from Maharashtra State. The results revealed that, about 172 wild species are used as food in Maharashtra. Out of these 63 species are commonly used by tribal and rural peoples, 35 species are occasionally used while remaining species are rarely consumed especially during scarcity of food due to drought or other reasons. Some of these have high scope and potential for their improvement and exploitation on commercial scale.

  20. E-assessment for learning? Exploring the potential of computer-marked assessment and computer-generated feedback, from short-answer questions to assessment analytics.

    OpenAIRE

    Jordan, Sally

    2014-01-01

    This submission draws on research from twelve publications, all addressing some aspect of the broad research question: “Can interactive computer-marked assessment improve the effectiveness of assessment for learning?” The work starts from a consideration of the conditions under which assessment of any sort is predicted to best support learning, and reviews the broader literature of assessment and feedback before considering the potential of computer-based assessment, focusing on relativ...

  1. Assessment of economically optimal water management and geospatial potential for large-scale water storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weerasinghe, Harshi; Schneider, Uwe A.

    2010-05-01

    Assessment of economically optimal water management and geospatial potential for large-scale water storage Weerasinghe, Harshi; Schneider, Uwe A Water is an essential but limited and vulnerable resource for all socio-economic development and for maintaining healthy ecosystems. Water scarcity accelerated due to population expansion, improved living standards, and rapid growth in economic activities, has profound environmental and social implications. These include severe environmental degradation, declining groundwater levels, and increasing problems of water conflicts. Water scarcity is predicted to be one of the key factors limiting development in the 21st century. Climate scientists have projected spatial and temporal changes in precipitation and changes in the probability of intense floods and droughts in the future. As scarcity of accessible and usable water increases, demand for efficient water management and adaptation strategies increases as well. Addressing water scarcity requires an intersectoral and multidisciplinary approach in managing water resources. This would in return safeguard the social welfare and the economical benefit to be at their optimal balance without compromising the sustainability of ecosystems. This paper presents a geographically explicit method to assess the potential for water storage with reservoirs and a dynamic model that identifies the dimensions and material requirements under an economically optimal water management plan. The methodology is applied to the Elbe and Nile river basins. Input data for geospatial analysis at watershed level are taken from global data repositories and include data on elevation, rainfall, soil texture, soil depth, drainage, land use and land cover; which are then downscaled to 1km spatial resolution. Runoff potential for different combinations of land use and hydraulic soil groups and for mean annual precipitation levels are derived by the SCS-CN method. Using the overlay and decision tree algorithms

  2. Assessment of Antiobesity Potential of Achyranthes aspera Linn. Seed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neerja Rani

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The present study was designed to evaluate the quality control parameters, quantitative phytochemical analysis (total phenols, total flavonoids, and total saponin content, and the antiobesity effect of ethanol extract of Achyranthes aspera Linn. seed (EAA by employing in vitro and in vivo models. In in vitro study, the inhibitory activity of EAA on pancreatic amylase and lipase was measured. The in vivo pancreatic lipase activity was evaluated by measurement of plasma triacylglycerol levels after oral administration of EAA along with lipid emulsion to Swiss albino mice. The EAA inhibited pancreatic amylase and lipase activity in vitro and elevations of plasma triacylglycerol level in mice. Furthermore, the antiobesity effect of EAA (900 mg/kg was assessed in mice fed a high-fat diet with or without EAA for 6 weeks. EAA significantly suppressed the increase in body, retroperitoneal adipose tissue, liver weights, and serum parameters, namely; total cholesterol, total triglyceride, and LDL-cholesterol level. The anti obesity effects of EAA in high-fat-diet-treated mice may be partly mediated through delaying the intestinal absorption of dietary fat by inhibiting pancreatic amylase and lipase activity. Histopathological effects of EAA on the liver of mice were also assessed.

  3. Assessment of Antiobesity Potential of Achyranthes aspera Linn. Seed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rani, Neerja; Sharma, Surendra Kumar; Vasudeva, Neeru

    2012-01-01

    The present study was designed to evaluate the quality control parameters, quantitative phytochemical analysis (total phenols, total flavonoids, and total saponin content), and the antiobesity effect of ethanol extract of Achyranthes aspera Linn. seed (EAA) by employing in vitro and in vivo models. In in vitro study, the inhibitory activity of EAA on pancreatic amylase and lipase was measured. The in vivo pancreatic lipase activity was evaluated by measurement of plasma triacylglycerol levels after oral administration of EAA along with lipid emulsion to Swiss albino mice. The EAA inhibited pancreatic amylase and lipase activity in vitro and elevations of plasma triacylglycerol level in mice. Furthermore, the antiobesity effect of EAA (900 mg/kg) was assessed in mice fed a high-fat diet with or without EAA for 6 weeks. EAA significantly suppressed the increase in body, retroperitoneal adipose tissue, liver weights, and serum parameters, namely; total cholesterol, total triglyceride, and LDL-cholesterol level. The anti obesity effects of EAA in high-fat-diet-treated mice may be partly mediated through delaying the intestinal absorption of dietary fat by inhibiting pancreatic amylase and lipase activity. Histopathological effects of EAA on the liver of mice were also assessed. PMID:22919417

  4. Assessment of the potential of ecolabels to promote agrobiodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Amstel, Mariëtte; de Neve, Willem; de Kraker, Joop; Glasbergen, Pieter

    2007-11-01

    We conducted a study to assess to what extent current ecolabels contain standards that stimulate conservation and sustainable use of on-farm biodiversity of agricultural landscapes (agrobiodiversity). First, we developed an agrobiodiversity management yardstick to assess and compare the labeling schemes of ecolabels for arable farming. Key characteristics of the yardstick are the five levels linking the abstract notion of agrobiodiversity management to concrete measures on a farm and its foundation upon expert judgment regarding the effect of farming practices on agrobiodiversity. Several environmental themes, among them agrobiodiversity management, are regulated through the standards of labeling schemes of ecolabels. With the aid of this yardstick, the labeling schemes were scrutinized and the number, average efficacy, and compulsory nature of relevant standards was determined for 10 categories of farm management. The results show that all examined ecolabels contain at least some standards that stimulate conservation and sustainable use of agrobiodiversity, but there are large differences between the labels. We consider the results of the five ecolabels to be insufficient to warrant their usefulness as a governance strategy that the Dutch government could refer to and depend on as part of a national agrobiodiversity policy to stimulate agrobiodiversity.

  5. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7–11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players’ potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player’s future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7–11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items ‘aiming at target’, ‘throwing a ball’, and ‘eye-hand coordination’ in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment’s outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be

  6. Assessment of lung ventilation by MR imaging: current status and future perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kauczor, Hans-Ulrich; Hanke, Alexander [Klinik fuer Radiologie, Johannes Gutenberg-Universitaet Mainz, Langenbeckstrasse 1, 55131 Mainz (Germany); Beek, Edwin J.R. van [Unit of Academic Radiology, Royal Hallamshire Hospital, Glossop Road, Sheffield S10 2JF (United Kingdom)

    2002-08-01

    The aim of this paper is to review the present status of novel MRI techniques as a new important instrument for functional ventilation imaging. The current status and future perspectives in research and clinical applications are summarized. Morphological lung imaging is based on chest radiography and computed tomography, whereas scintigraphy is used for ventilation imaging. During recent years, MRI has emerged as a new means for functional imaging of ventilation. Aerosolized contrast agents and oxygen are used in proton imaging, whereas non-proton imaging relies on fluorine compounds, such as sulfur hexafluoride and perfluorcarbons, or on hyperpolarized noble gases, such as helium-3 or xenon-129. All the gases are administered as inhaled ''contrast agents'' for imaging of the airways and airspaces. In general, straightforward images demonstrate the homogeneity of ventilation in a breath-hold and allow for determination of ventilated lung. The different properties of the different compounds enable the measurement of additional functional parameters. They comprise airspace size, regional oxygen partial pressure, and analysis of ventilation distribution, ventilation/perfusion ratios, and gas exchange, including oxygen uptake. Novel MRI techniques provide the potential for functional imaging of ventilation. The next steps include definition of the value and the potential of the different contrast mechanisms as well as determination of the significance of the functional information with regard to physiological research and patient management in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and others. (orig.)

  7. Alchemy in the underworld - recent progress and future potential of organic geochemistry applied to speleothems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blyth, Alison

    2016-04-01

    Speleothems are well used archives for chemical records of terrestrial environmental change, and the integration of records from a range of isotopic, inorganic, and organic geochemical techniques offers significant power in reconstructing both changes in past climates and identifying the resultant response in the overlying terrestrial ecosystems. The use of organic geochemistry in this field offers the opportunity to recover new records of vegetation change (via biomarkers and compound specific isotopes), temperature change (via analysis of glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, a compound group derived from microbes and varying in structure in response to temperature and pH), and changes in soil microbial behaviour (via combined carbon isotope analysis). However, to date the use of organic geochemical techniques has been relatively limited, due to issues relating to sample size, concerns about contamination, and unanswered questions about the origins of the preserved organic matter and rates of transport. Here I will briefly review recent progress in the field, and present a framework for the future research needed to establish organic geochemical analysis in speleothems as a robust palaeo-proxy approach.

  8. The hydrogen economy for a sustainable future and the potential contribution of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Hydrogen Economy encompasses the production of hydrogen using a wide range of energy sources, its storage and distribution as an economic and universal energy carrier, and its end use by industry and individuals with negligible emission of pollutants and greenhouse gases. Hydrogen is an energy carrier not a primary energy source, just like electricity is an energy carrier. The advantages of hydrogen as a means of storage and distribution of energy, and the methods of production of hydrogen, are reviewed. Energy sources for hydrogen production include fossil fuels, renewables, hydropower and nuclear power. Hydrogen has many applications in industry, for residential use and for transport by air, land and sea. Fuel cells are showing great promise for conversion of hydrogen into electricity and their development and current status are discussed. Non-energy uses of hydrogen and the safety aspects of hydrogen are also considered. It is concluded that the Hydrogen Economy, especially if coupled to renewable and nuclear energy sources, is a technically viable and economic way of achieving greater energy diversity and security and a sustainable future in this century

  9. Scenario Methodology for Modelling of Future Landscape Developments as Basis for Assessing Ecosystem Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Rosenberg

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystems of our intensively used European landscapes produce a variety of natural goods and services for the benefit of humankind, and secure the basics and quality of life. Because these ecosystems are still undergoing fundamental changes, the interest of the society is to know more about future developments and their ecological impacts. To describe and analyze these changes, scenarios can be developed and an assessment of the ecological changes can be carried out subsequently. In the project „Landscape Saxony 2050“; a methodology for the construction of exploratory scenarios was worked out. The presented methodology provides a possibility to identify the driving forces (socio-cultural, economic and ecological conditions of the landscape development. It allows to indicate possible future paths which lead to a change of structures and processes in the landscape and can influence the capability to provide ecosystem services. One essential component of the applied technique is that an approach for the assessment of the effects of the landscape changes on ecosystem services is integrated into the developed scenario methodology. Another is, that the methodology is strong designed as participatory, i.e. stakeholders are integrated actively. The method is a seven phase model which provides the option for the integration of the stakeholders‘ participation at all levels of scenario development. The scenario framework was applied to the district of Görlitz, an area of 2100 sq km located at the eastern border of Germany. The region is affected by strong demographic as well as economic changes. The core issue focused on the examination of landscape change in terms of biodiversity. Together with stakeholders, a trend scenario and two alternative scenarios were developed. The changes of the landscape structure are represented in story lines, maps and tables. On basis of the driving forces of the issue areas „cultural / social values“ and

  10. Preliminary Assessment of Geothermal Resource Potential at the UTTR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richard P. Smith, PhD., PG; Robert P. Breckenridge, PhD.; Thomas R. Wood, PhD.

    2011-06-01

    The purpose of this report is to summarize the current state of geologic knowledge concerning potential high-temperature geothermal development on the lands controlled by Hill Air Force Base (HAFB) at the Utah Testing and Training Range (UTTR) and the lands encompassed by the Dugway Proving Grounds (Dugway). This report is based on currently available published and publically available information. Most of the information presented here is purely geologic in nature. Therefore, the logistical issues (such as military exclusion areas, proximity to electrical infrastructure, and access) are additional considerations that are being addressed in a separate report that will be issued to HAFB by the SES corporation.

  11. Assessment of potential solder candidates for high temperature applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    of the package with different solders of different melting temperatures. High Pb containing alloys where the lead levels can be above 85% by weight, is one of the solders currently being used in this technology. Responding to market pressure i.e. need for green electronic products there is now an increasing...... complicates the corrosion problems. Although the cost of corrosion in the electronic sector could not be estimated, it has been suggested that a significant part of all electronic system failures are caused by corrosion. Thus, the determined potential solder candidates were classified based on its property...

  12. Assessing the zoonotic potential of Ascaris suum and Trichuris suis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nejsum, Peter; Betson, M.; Bendall, R. P.;

    2012-01-01

    The two geohelminths, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura, infect more than a billion people worldwide but are only reported sporadically in the developed part of the world. In contrast, the closely related species A. suum and T. suis in pigs have a truly global distribution, with infected...... pigs found in most production systems. In areas where pigs and humans live in close proximity or where pig manure is used as fertilizer on vegetables for human consumption, there is a potential risk of cross-infections. We therefore review this relationship between Ascaris and Trichuris in the human...

  13. Big Feet: Assessing the Current and Future Impact of Population Size on a Country's Ecological Footprint

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogg, R. S.; Takaro, T.; Miller, C.; Hogg, E.; Anema, A.; Gislason, M.; Parkes, M.

    2015-12-01

    Background: Ecological footprints assess the land and water a population needs to procure its resources and handle its waste. Measures derived from these footprints look at a population's ecological overshoot rather than weighting the population to its footprint. The aim of this study was to examine the latter approach by determining what the current and future weighted world population, by income gradient, would be if everyone lived within the boundary of 1.8 hectares per person. Methods: Country-specific ecological footprints and populations for 2007 were obtained from the Global Footprint Network (www.footprintnetwork.org); and projected populations were collected from US Census Bureau (www.census.gov). Footprint growth to 2050 was based on a business as usual approach developed by Kitzes et al. in Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B (2008). Weighted population estimates were derived by multiplying actual population by the ratio of the country's footprint to overall boundary of 1.8 hectares per person. Results: The weighted global population increased by 2.4 billion people (37%) in 2007 based on our adjustment. High and middle-income country populations increased, by 242% and 10%, respectively, while low-income country populations decreased by 33%. The weighed global population in 2050 increased by 10.1 billion with the majority of this growth occurring in high-income countries -- 437% versus 67% and 9% respectively for medium and low-income countries. Conclusions: Our study showed that current and future global weighted demographic and ecological impact would be felt mainly in high-income countries even though actual population growth would occur mainly in low and middle-income countries.

  14. Realising Future Internet Potentials for Food Chain SMEs: A Hierarchy of Needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harald Sundmaeker

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The EC funded FI‐PPP programme is currently elaborating a large set of enabling technologies that shall help to overcome challenges towards a sustainable networked society of tomorrow. This up‐front investment can highly facilitate access to such Internet potentials by food chain SMEs. Nevertheless, SMEs require a systematic support for being able to decide on which technological enablers are relevant at which moment of their business evolution. To characterise a decision reference, a hierarchy of needs of food chain SMEs is presented that can serve asbaseline when aiming at the usage of the FI‐PPP results in an SME environment.

  15. ASSESSMENT OF BIOTHERAPEUTIC POTENTIAL OF PIMENTA DIOICA (ALLSPICE LEAF EXTRACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr Pratima Khandelwal et al

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available All-spice (pimenta is one of the under-utilized resources available in the tropical regions of the globe. It is a variety of sweet pepper used as a spice and its leaves are used for traditional culinary purpose. Researchers have studied the antioxidant potentials of the berries of the plant, but no documented work is reported on its stem, leaf and roots for antimicrobial properties. Thus, the present investigation was carried out to access the antimicrobial and anti-oxidation potentials of leaf extracts using three solvent systems, (Aqueous, acetone and methanol. All solvent systems at different concentrations were evaluated for antibacterial, antifungal and reducing capacity against selected bacterial and fungal pathogens; zone of inhibition was exhibited by methanol leaf extracts in decreasing order for Escherichia coli, Bacillus cereus, Salmonella typhimurium, and Staphylococcus aureus. Lesser inhibitory zones were obtained by acetone leaf extracts, whereas, Klebsiella pneumonia and Pseudomonas aeruginosa were not inhibited by any extracts. Aqueous extract demonstrated no inhibitory activity against tested bacterial pathogens. All the three leaf extracts were found to be ineffective against fungal strains (Fusarium oxysporum, Aspergillus niger, Aspergillus flavus and Candida albicans tested. Protein content in each extract was determined and reducing capability was estimated which was found to be high in methanol and acetone extract whereas aqueous extract showed low reducing ability.

  16. Assessment of wind power potential at Hawksbay, Karachi Sindh, Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahnawaz Farhan Khahro

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Pakistan is facing serious energy crisis at present. The government is aiming to utilize the immense potential of renewable energy sources like: Solar, Wind, etc, in addition to intensify the conventional sources of energy to over the acute shortage of energy. Wind energy is the fastest-developing energy source worldwide. The aim of this paper is to explore and estimate the wind power potential of Hawksbay Karachi, one of the locations in southern part of Pakistan. Wind speed data (in meters per second from April 2009 to April 2011 at four different heights is measured. Wind power densities, frequency distribution, and Weibull distribution of wind speed are calculated in this study. This study also presents the analysis and comparison of 5 numerical methods to determine the Weibull scale and shape parameters for the available wind data. The estimated wind power to be generated through commercial wind turbine is also included. The yearly mean wind speed at Hawksbay, Karachi is 5.9m/s and has power density of 197W/m2 at 80m height with high power density during April to August. The estimated cost per kWh is US$0.0345. Therefore the site may be considered suitable for wind turbine applications.

  17. The use of GIS for assessing Rn risk potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper describes the use of geostatistical analysis and GIS techniques to assess gas emanation hazards. The Mt. Vulsini volcanic district was selected for this study because of the wide range of locally present natural phenomena which affect gas migration in the near surface. In addition the large number of soil gas samples that were collected in this area should allow for a calibration between the generated risk/hazard models and the measured distribution of toxic gas species at surface. The approach used during this study consisted of three general stages. First data was digitally organised into geognostic layers, then software functions in the GIS program 'ArcView' were used to compare and correlate these various layers (or 'themes'), and then finally the produced risk (hazard) map was compared with soil gas data in order to validate the model. (author)

  18. An in vitro human skin test for assessing sensitization potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, S S; Wang, X N; Fielding, M; Kerry, A; Dickinson, I; Munuswamy, R; Kimber, I; Dickinson, A M

    2016-05-01

    Sensitization to chemicals resulting in an allergy is an important health issue. The current gold-standard method for identification and characterization of skin-sensitizing chemicals was the mouse local lymph node assay (LLNA). However, for a number of reasons there has been an increasing imperative to develop alternative approaches to hazard identification that do not require the use of animals. Here we describe a human in-vitro skin explant test for identification of sensitization hazards and the assessment of relative skin sensitizing potency. This method measures histological damage in human skin as a readout of the immune response induced by the test material. Using this approach we have measured responses to 44 chemicals including skin sensitizers, pre/pro-haptens, respiratory sensitizers, non-sensitizing chemicals (including skin-irritants) and previously misclassified compounds. Based on comparisons with the LLNA, the skin explant test gave 95% specificity, 95% sensitivity, 95% concordance with a correlation coefficient of 0.9. The same specificity and sensitivity were achieved for comparison of results with published human sensitization data with a correlation coefficient of 0.91. The test also successfully identified nickel sulphate as a human skin sensitizer, which was misclassified as negative in the LLNA. In addition, sensitizers and non-sensitizers identified as positive or negative by the skin explant test have induced high/low T cell proliferation and IFNγ production, respectively. Collectively, the data suggests the human in-vitro skin explant test could provide the basis for a novel approach for characterization of the sensitizing activity as a first step in the risk assessment process. PMID:26251951

  19. Potential immunological markers for diagnosis and therapeutic assessment of toxocariasis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guita Rubinsky-Elefant

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available In human toxocariasis, there are few approaches using immunological markers for diagnosis and therapeutic assessment. An immunoblot (IB assay using excretory-secretory Toxocara canis antigen was standardized for monitoring IgG, IgE and IgA antibodies in 27 children with toxocariasis (23 visceral, three mixed visceral and ocular, and one ocular form for 22-116 months after chemotherapy. IB sensitivity was 100% for IgG antibodies to bands of molecular weight 29-38, 48-54, 95-116, 121-162, >205 kDa, 80.8% for IgE to 29-38, 48-54, 95-121, > 205 kDa, and 65.4% for IgA to 29-38, 48-54, 81-93 kDa. Candidates for diagnostic markers should be IgG antibodies to bands of low molecular weight (29-38 and 48-54 kDa. One group of patients presented the same antibody reactivity to all bands throughout the follow-up study; in the other group, antibodies decayed partially or completely to some or all bands, but these changes were not correlated with time after chemotherapy. Candidates for monitoring patients after chemotherapy may be IgG antibodies to > 205 kDa fractions, IgA to 29-38, 48-54, 81-93 kDa and IgE to 95-121 kDa. Further identification of antigen epitopes related to these markers will allow the development of sensitive and specific immunoassays for the diagnosis and therapeutic assessment of toxocariasis.

  20. Usefulness of brain atlases in neuroradiology: Current status and future potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowinski, Wieslaw L

    2016-08-01

    Human brain atlases, although prevalent in medical education and stereotactic and functional neurosurgery, are not yet applied practically in neuroradiology. In a step towards introducing brain atlases to neuroradiology, we discuss nine different situations of potential atlas use: (1) to support interpretation of brain scans with clearly visible structures (to increase confidence of non-neuroradiologists); (2) to delineate and label scans of low anatomical content (with indiscernible or poorly visible anatomy); (3) to assist in generating the structured report; (4) to assist in interpreting small deep lesions, since an atlas's anatomical parcellation is higher than that of the interpreted scan; (5) to approximate distorted due to pathology (and unknown to the interpreter) anatomy and label it; (6) to cope with data explosion; (7) to assist in the interpretation of functional scans (to label the activation foci with the underlying anatomy and Brodmann's areas); (8) to support ischemic stroke image handling by means of atlases of anatomy and blood supply territories; and (9) to communicate image interpretation results (diagnosis) to others. The usefulness of the atlas for automatic structure identification, localisation, delineation, labelling and quantification, as well as for reporting and communication, potentially increases the interpreter's efficiency and confidence, as well as expedites image interpretation. PMID:27154190

  1. In vivo confocal microscopy for the oral cavity: Current state of the field and future potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maher, N G; Collgros, H; Uribe, P; Ch'ng, S; Rajadhyaksha, M; Guitera, P

    2016-03-01

    Confocal microscopy (CM) has been shown to correlate with oral mucosal histopathology in vivo. The purposes of this review are to summarize what we know so far about in vivo CM applications for oral mucosal pathologies, to highlight some current developments with CM devices relevant for oral applications, and to formulate where in vivo CM could hold further application for oral mucosal diagnosis and management. Ovid Medline® and/or Google® searches were performed using the terms 'microscopy, confocal', 'mouth neoplasms', 'mouth mucosa', 'leukoplakia, oral', 'oral lichen planus', 'gingiva', 'cheilitis', 'taste', 'inflammatory oral confocal', 'mucosal confocal' and 'confocal squamous cell oral'. In summary, inclusion criteria were in vivo use of any type of CM for the human oral mucosa and studies on normal or pathological oral mucosa. Experimental studies attempting to identify proteins of interest and microorganisms were excluded. In total 25 relevant articles were found, covering 8 main topics, including normal oral mucosal features (n=15), oral dysplasia or neoplasia (n=7), inflamed oral mucosa (n=3), taste impairment (n=3), oral autoimmune conditions (n=2), pigmented oral pathology/melanoma (n=1), delayed type hypersensitivity (n=1), and cheilitis glandularis (n=1). The evidence for using in vivo CM in these conditions is poor, as it is limited to mainly small descriptive studies. Current device developments for oral CM include improved probe design. The authors propose that future applications for in vivo oral CM may include burning mouth syndrome, intra-operative mapping for cancer surgery, and monitoring and targeted biopsies within field cancerization. PMID:26786962

  2. Potential new CD metrology metric combined with data fusion for future node production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foucher, J.; Hazart, J.; Griesbach Schuch Figueiro, N.

    2012-03-01

    Introduction of new material stacks, more sophisticated design rules and complex 3D architectures in semiconductor technology has led to major metrology challenges by posing stringent measurement precision and accuracy requirements for various critical dimensions (CD), feature shape and profile. Current CD metrology techniques being used in development and production such as CD-SEM, scatterometry and CDAFM, individually have intrinsic limitations that must be overcome. The approach of hybrid automated metrology seems necessary. Using multiple tools in unison is an adequate solution when adding their respective strengths to overcome individual limitations. Such solution will give the industry a better metrology solution than the conventional approach. Nevertheless, this is not enough since the industry is requested for 2D and 3D profiles information. Indeed, CD, height and/or Sidewall angle are information which is limited for future nodes production. Full profile information is necessary. In this paper, the first part will be dedicated to the introduction of contour object as a new standard for the semiconductor industry. This metric will take into account all pattern's profile information in order to overcome the limitations of simple CD and/or SWA information. The second part will present and discuss results concerning data fusion and its application to hybrid metrology. We will illustrate hybrid metrology with an application to CD-SEM enhancement with a reference technique such as the AFM3D or TEM technology. We will show that it could be possible to improve RMS error of CD-SEM by a factor of 78%. We think that such trend can be extended to all microelectronic levels in IC manufacturing and subsequently significantly reduce cycle time and improve production yield through easier hotspot detection.

  3. Regional maps of occupational heat exposure: past, present, and potential future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tord Kjellstrom

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: An important feature of climate change is increasing human heat exposure in workplaces without cooling systems in tropical and subtropical countries. Detailed gridded heat exposure maps will provide essential information for public health authorities. Objectives: To develop and test methods for calculating occupational heat exposures and present results in easily interpreted maps. Design: Published formulas for a common occupational heat exposure index, the WBGT (Wet Bulb Globe Temperature, were used in combination with global gridded climate data to calculate heat exposure in 0.58 grid squares. Monthly averages of daily maximum temperatures, as indicators of typical temperatures during the hottest part of the day, and corresponding water vapour pressures produced estimates of monthly WBGT indoors (without cooling systems or outdoors in the shade. Results: The maps show the WBGT within four hot regions of the world during the three hottest months in 1975 and 2000: Australia, South Asia, Southern Africa, Central America, and southern US. Between 1975 and 2000 a WBGT increase of 0.5–1°C was common and the maps show clear decreases in some places. The time trends fit with the development of global climate change. The high WBGT values (particularly in South Asia already cause excessive occupational heat exposures during the three hottest months. If continued climate change increases WBGT by 3°C, our maps identify areas where occupational heat stress in non-cooled workplaces will be extreme. Conclusions: The mapping method provides a rapid visual impression of occupational heat exposures in large regions of the world. The local changes in WBGT between 1975 and 2000 fit with the global climate change trends. Future increases of WBGT may create extreme heat exposure situations in large areas of the world.

  4. Challenges and potentials in using alternative landscape futures during climate change: A literature review and survey study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Rastandeh

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the feasibility of applying alternative futures and scenario analysis in landscape planning during climate change to provide a wider perspective and deeper understanding of this approach for better use and more effective application in the future. The study consists of a literature review and an analysis of recent applied projects carried out worldwide. In addition, an electronic survey was conducted from March to September 2014 to examine viewpoints on the use and application of this approach with reference to climate-change impacts. The survey participants were a group of highly experienced researchers from eighteen countries involved in at least one applied project since 2000 relating to this topic. After analysis of more than forty applied projects, the survey results were incorporated into the analysis to create a comprehensive picture regarding the potentials and limitations of alternative futures and scenario analysis in landscape planning with particular attention to climate change. The findings show that this method is one of the most effective decision-making approaches for adopting landscape policies where landscapes change rapidly under the pressure of urbanisation and climate change. Nevertheless, there is a gap between the advances offered by the approach in various dimensions and the complexity of patterns, uncertainties and upheavals in landscapes due to climate-change impacts in the urbanising world. The research indicates that the approach opens up a great opportunity for decision-makers to expand their perspective and adopt appropriate landscape policies before reaching a point of no return from the sustainability point of view. Meanwhile, there are challenges and barriers in the application of alternative futures and scenario analysis for envisioning the landscapes influenced by climate change and urbanisation that should be pushed back. Although informative, this research raises new questions about this

  5. Fungal Peptaibiotics: Assessing Potential Meteoritic Amino Acid Contamination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsila, J. E.; Callahan, M. P.; Glavin, D. P.; Dworkin, J. P.; Bruckner, H.

    2010-01-01

    The presence of non-protein alpha-dialkyl-amino acids such as alpha-aminoisobutyric acid (alpha-A1B) and isovaline (Iva), which are relatively rare in the terrestrial biosphere, has long been used as an indication of the indigeneity of meteoritic amino acids, however, the discovery of alpha-AIB in peptides producers by a widespread group of filamentous fungi indicates the possibility of a terrestrial biotic source for the alpha-AIB observed in some meteorites. The alpha-AIB-containing peptides produced by these fungi are dubbed peptaibiotics. We measured the molecular distribution and stable carbon and nitrogen isotopic ratios for amino acids found in the total hydrolysates of four biologically synthesized peptaibiotics. We compared these aneasurenetts with those from the CM2 carbonaceous chondrite Murchison and from three Antarctic CR2 carbonaceous chondrites in order to understand the peptaibiotics as a potential source of meteoritic contamination.

  6. Preliminary Assessment Of Space Infrared Experiment's (SIRE) Potential For Contamination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mah, D. L.; Muscari, J. A.

    1982-02-01

    This paper presents the results of a contamination analysis and computer modeling study performed for the Space Infrared Experiment (SIRE) using the Space Transport System (STS) Shuttle Orbiter as the launch vehicle for the proposed seven-day sortie mission. These results will provide an accurate description of the deposition levels on the telescope primary mirror and of the molecular number column density (NCD) along the telescope line-of-sight. The planned Helium Purge System was assumed not to be operating. The contribution to the contamination environment of any cargo element, other than SIRE and its pallet, was not considered in this study. The study considers five potential contamination sources, including the flash evaporator vent effluents and the vernier reaction control system (VCS) engines plume constituents.

  7. Assessment of genotoxic potential of Tamra Bhasma (incinerated copper

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swapnil Y Chaudhari

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The presence of metallic content in Ayurvedic drugs became an important burning issue in present days. The usefulness of Bhasmas (incinerated metals/minerals in therapeutics, their safety or toxicity is frequently being raised on different platforms. Considering this, there is a need to develop toxicity profiles of different metals/minerals. Tamra Bhasma (incinerated copper one such metallic formulation is widely used in cardiac and lipid disorders by Ayurvedic Physicians. The present study is aimed to evaluate the genotoxic potential of Tamra Bhasma. Materials and Methods: It was prepared as per classical guidelines and administered to Swiss albino mice for 14 consecutive days. Chromosomal aberration and sperm abnormality assay were studied. Results: All treated groups exhibited significant body weight gain in comparison to cyclophosphamide (CP group. Results revealed no structural deformity in above parameters in comparison to CP group. Conclusion: Reported data showed that both tested samples of Tamra Bhasma were not genotoxic and can be used safely.

  8. Assessing the cost saving potential of shared product architectures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Niels Henrik; Hansen, Christian Lindschou; Løkkegaard, Martin;

    2016-01-01

    This article presents a method for calculating cost savings of shared architectures in industrial companies called Architecture Mapping and Evaluation. The main contribution is an operational method to evaluate the cost potential and evaluate the number of product architectures in an industrial...... company. Experiences from the case company show it is possible to reduce the number of architectures with 60% which leads to significant reduction in direct material and labor costs. This can be achieved without compromising the market offerings of products. Experiences from the case study indicate cost...... reductions between 0.5% and 2% of turnover. The main implication is that the method provides a quantitative basis for the discussion on whether or not to implement shared product architectures. This means a more fact-based approach is introduced....

  9. Biomas Assessment : Assessment of global biomass potentials and their links to food, water, biodiversity, energy demand and economy. Main report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dornburg, V.; Faaij, A.; Verweij, P.; Langeveld, H.; Ven, van de G.W.J.; Wester, P.; Keulen, van H.; Diepen, van K.; Meeusen, M.J.G.; Banse, M.A.H.; Ros, J.; Vuuren, van D.; Born, van den G.J.; Oorschot, van M.; Smout, F.; Vliet, van J.M.; Aiking, H.; Londo, M.; Mozaffarian, H.; Smekens, H.

    2008-01-01

    This study provides a comprehensive assessment of global biomass potential estimates, focusing on the various factors affecting these potentials, such as food supplies, water use, biodiversity, energy demands and agro-economics. In addition, a number of studies analysing GHG balances of bioenergy ar

  10. Floating Offshore Wind in Hawaii: Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts from Three Future Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jimenez, Tony; Keyser, David; Tegen, Suzanne

    2016-04-18

    Construction of the first offshore wind power plant in the United States began in 2015, off the coast of Rhode Island, using fixed platform structures that are appropriate for shallow seafloors, like those located off the East Coast and mid-Atlantic. However, floating platforms, which have yet to be deployed commercially, will likely need to be anchored to the deeper seafloor if deployed in Hawaiian waters. To analyze the employment and economic potential for floating offshore wind off Hawaii's coasts, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to analyze two hypothetical deployment scenarios for Hawaii: 400 MW of offshore wind by 2050 and 800 MW of offshore wind by 2050. The results of this analysis can be used to better understand the general scale of economic opportunities that could result from offshore wind development.

  11. Potential future impact of a partially effective HIV vaccine in a southern African setting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Phillips, Andrew N; Cambiano, Valentina; Nakagawa, Fumiyo;

    2014-01-01

    with which HIV incidence declines; the impact on incidence in relative terms is projected to increase over time, with a projected 67% lower HIV incidence in 2060 compared with no vaccine introduction. The projected mean decline in the general adult population death rate 2040-2060 is 11%. A vaccine...... with no prevention efficacy but which reduces viral load by 1 log is predicted to result in a modest (14%) reduction in HIV incidence and an 8% reduction in death rate in the general adult population (mean 2040-2060). These effects were broadly similar in multivariable uncertainty analysis. INTERPRETATION......BACKGROUND: It is important for public health and within the HIV vaccine development field to understand the potential population level impact of an HIV vaccine of partial efficacy--both in preventing infection and in reducing viral load in vaccinated individuals who become infected--in the context...

  12. Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael;

    2015-01-01

    Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate...... pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote...... extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective...

  13. Health literacy: exploring future directions and potential contributions from health psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estacio, Emee Vida; Comings, John

    2013-08-01

    Health psychology has the potential to contribute meaningfully to our understanding of the concept, processes, and outcomes of health literacy. Three areas for discussion are presented here: (1) health literacy as a multimodal concept; (2) the role of the health-care system, the professional, and tools of the trade; and (3) the relevance of social context, participation, and empowerment. The three levels of health literacy proposed by Nutbeam are mapped onto the four evolving approaches in health psychology proposed by Marks to explore the synergy between these research areas. It is hoped that this Special Section on Health Literacy will generate more discussion and activity among health psychologists into health literacy research and practice. PMID:23479304

  14. Estimating the future ice sheet hydropower potential in Paakitsoq, Ilulissat, West Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahlstrøm, Andreas P.; Mottram, R.H.; Nielsen, C.;

    2008-01-01

    Meltwater running off the Greenland ice sheet yield significant hydropower potentials in catchments bordering the ice sheet, especially in West and South Greenland. Hydropower has been chosen as the most desired source of energy by the Greenland Home Rule, but recent changes in the Greenland ice...... sheet has emphasized the risk of sudden changes in catchment supply. In this study, we present a thorough investigation of hydropower feasibility at the Paakitsoq basin, near Ilulissat in West Greenland. The catchment is completely dominated by the Greenland ice sheet which provides large quantities...... of meltwater during the summer season. However, geometrical changes in the ice sheet, for example due to a retreat or an advance of the ice sheet margin, could change the hydrological catchment within the ice sheet. Such a change would have a devastating economical impact as a hydropower plant is a significant...

  15. Vaccines for TB: Lessons from the Past Translating into Future Potentials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gee Jun Tye

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Development of vaccines for infectious diseases has come a long way with recent advancements in adjuvant developments and discovery of new antigens that are capable of eliciting strong immunological responses for sterile eradication of disease. Tuberculosis (TB that kills nearly 2 million of the population every year is also one of the highlights of the recent developments. The availability or not of diagnostic methods for infection has implications for the control of the disease by the health systems but is not related to the immune surveillance, a phenomenon derived from the interaction between the bacteria and their host. Here, we will review the immunology of TB and current vaccine candidates for TB. Current strategies of developing new vaccines against TB will also be reviewed in order to further discuss new insights into immunotherapeutic approaches involving adjuvant and antigens combinations that might be of potential for the control of TB.

  16. Decisional tool to assess current and future process robustness in an antibody purification facility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stonier, Adam; Simaria, Ana Sofia; Smith, Martin; Farid, Suzanne S

    2012-07-01

    Increases in cell culture titers in existing facilities have prompted efforts to identify strategies that alleviate purification bottlenecks while controlling costs. This article describes the application of a database-driven dynamic simulation tool to identify optimal purification sizing strategies and visualize their robustness to future titer increases. The tool harnessed the benefits of MySQL to capture the process, business, and risk features of multiple purification options and better manage the large datasets required for uncertainty analysis and optimization. The database was linked to a discrete-event simulation engine so as to model the dynamic features of biopharmaceutical manufacture and impact of resource constraints. For a given titer, the tool performed brute force optimization so as to identify optimal purification sizing strategies that minimized the batch material cost while maintaining the schedule. The tool was applied to industrial case studies based on a platform monoclonal antibody purification process in a multisuite clinical scale manufacturing facility. The case studies assessed the robustness of optimal strategies to batch-to-batch titer variability and extended this to assess the long-term fit of the platform process as titers increase from 1 to 10 g/L, given a range of equipment sizes available to enable scale intensification efforts. Novel visualization plots consisting of multiple Pareto frontiers with tie-lines connecting the position of optimal configurations over a given titer range were constructed. These enabled rapid identification of robust purification configurations given titer fluctuations and the facility limit that the purification suites could handle in terms of the maximum titer and hence harvest load.

  17. Assessment of underground water potential zones using modern geomatics technologies in Jhansi district, Uttar Pradesh, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, N. K.; Shukla, A. K.; Shukla, S.; Pandey, M.

    2014-11-01

    Ground water is a distinguished component of the hydrologic cycle. Surface water storage and ground water withdrawal are traditional engineering approaches which will continue to be followed in the future. The uncertainty about the occurrence, distribution and quality aspect of the ground water and the energy requirement for its withdrawal impose restriction on exploitation of ground water. The main objective of the study is assessment of underground water potential zones of Jhansi city and surrounding area, by preparing underground water potential zone map using Geographical Information System (GIS), remote sensing, and validation by underground water inventory mapping using GPS field survey done along the parts of National Highway 25 and 26 and some state highway passing through the study area. Study area covers an area of 1401 km2 and its perimeter is approximate 425 km. For this study Landsat TM (0.76-0.90 um) band data were acquired from GLCF website. Sensor spatial resolution is 30 m. Satellite image has become a standard tool aiding in the study of underground water. Extraction of different thematic layers like Land Use Land Cover (LULC), settlement, etc. can be done through unsupervised classification. The modern geometics technologies viz. remote sensing and GIS are used to produce the map that classifies the groundwater potential zone to a number of qualitative zone such as very high, high, moderate, low or very low. Thematic maps are prepared by visual interpretation of Survey of India topo-sheets and linearly enhanced Landsat TM satellite image on 1 : 50,000 scale using AutoCAD, ArcGIS 10.1 and ERDAS 11 software packages.

  18. Assessing the potential for luminescence dating of basalts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsukamoto, S.; Duller, G.A.T.; Wintle, A.G.; Muhs, D.

    2011-01-01

    The possibility of dating basalt using luminescence was tested on four samples with independent age control from Cima volcanic field, California, with the ultimate aim of assessing whether the technique could be used to date sediments on the surface of Mars. Previous analysis of these samples had demonstrated that the infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) signal is most suitable for dating as it showed the lowest fading rate among various luminescence signals. In this study, changes in equivalent dose as a function of preheat are described. The ages for the two youngest Cima samples agree with the independent ages based on cosmogenic nuclide measurements (12.0 ?? 0.8 ka). In the two older samples (dated to 320 and 580 ka by K-Ar), the luminescence behaviour is more complex and the form of the IRSL decay curve is seen to vary with dose. Mathematical fitting is used to isolate two components and their intensities are used to produce dose response curves. The slower component yields a larger equivalent dose. However, even using this component and after correction for fading, the ages obtained for the older samples are younger than the K-Ar ages. ?? 2010 Elsevier B.V.

  19. Assessing auditory evoked potentials of wild harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruser, Andreas; Dähne, Michael; van Neer, Abbo; Lucke, Klaus; Sundermeyer, Janne; Siebert, Ursula; Houser, Dorian S; Finneran, James J; Everaarts, Eligius; Meerbeek, Jolanda; Dietz, Rune; Sveegaard, Signe; Teilmann, Jonas

    2016-07-01

    Testing the hearing abilities of marine mammals under water is a challenging task. Sample sizes are usually low, thus limiting the ability to generalize findings of susceptibility towards noise influences. A method to measure harbor porpoise hearing thresholds in situ in outdoor conditions using auditory steady state responses of the brainstem was developed and tested. The method was used on 15 live-stranded animals from the North Sea during rehabilitation, shortly before release into the wild, and on 12 wild animals incidentally caught in pound nets in Denmark (inner Danish waters). Results indicated that although the variability between individuals is wide, the shape of the hearing curve is generally similar to previously published results from behavioral trials. Using 10-kHz frequency intervals between 10 and 160 kHz, best hearing was found between 120 and 130 kHz. Additional testing using one-third octave frequency intervals (from 16 to 160 kHz) allowed for a much faster hearing assessment, but eliminated the fine scale threshold characteristics. For further investigations, the method will be used to better understand the factors influencing sensitivity differences across individuals and to establish population-level parameters describing hearing abilities of harbor porpoises.

  20. Using urban forest assessment tools to model bird habitat potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerman, Susannah B.; Nislow, Keith H.; Nowak, David J.; Destefano, Stephen; King, David I.; Jones-Farrand, D. Todd

    2014-01-01

    The alteration of forest cover and the replacement of native vegetation with buildings, roads, exotic vegetation, and other urban features pose one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity. As more land becomes slated for urban development, identifying effective urban forest wildlife management tools becomes paramount to ensure the urban forest provides habitat to sustain bird and other wildlife populations. The primary goal of this study was to integrate wildlife suitability indices to an existing national urban forest assessment tool, i-Tree. We quantified available habitat characteristics of urban forests for ten northeastern U.S. cities, and summarized bird habitat relationships from the literature in terms of variables that were represented in the i-Tree datasets. With these data, we generated habitat suitability equations for nine bird species representing a range of life history traits and conservation status that predicts the habitat suitability based on i-Tree data. We applied these equations to the urban forest datasets to calculate the overall habitat suitability for each city and the habitat suitability for different types of land-use (e.g., residential, commercial, parkland) for each bird species. The proposed habitat models will help guide wildlife managers, urban planners, and landscape designers who require specific information such as desirable habitat conditions within an urban management project to help improve the suitability of urban forests for birds.

  1. The impact of MFG-E8 in chronic pancreatitis: potential for future immunotherapy?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D’Haese Jan G

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The glycoprotein MFG-E8 mediates phagocytic clearance of apoptotic cells and influences the pathogenesis and progression of inflammatory diseases. MFG-E8 was shown to attenuate the progression of inflammation and to improve survival in septic rats. Accumulating evidence suggests an immunomodulatory link between MFG-E8 and the pro-inflammatory chemokine fractalkine, which may determine the severity of pain, fibrosis, and inflammation in chronic pancreatitis (CP. Methods The expression and localization of MFG-E8 was investigated in CP (n = 62, and normal pancreas (NP; n = 34 by QRT-PCR, Western-blot and immunohistochemistry analyses. Results were correlated with mRNA expression of fractalkine, CX3CR1, and with the presence and degree of pain and fibrosis. Human pancreatic stellate cells (hPSCs were isolated from CP tissues and evaluated for MFG-E8 mRNA expression after fractalkine stimulation. Results MFG-E8-mRNA was significantly overexpressed in CP and isolated hPSCs when compared to NP. Western-blot and immunohistochemistry analysis confirmed accumulation of MFG-E8 in CP, with noticeably increased MFG-E8 immunoreactivity in tubular complexes. MFG-E8 expression correlated significantly with fractalkine expression, severe fibrosis, and the presence of pain in CP patients. Stimulation of hPSCs with fractalkine led to a significant increase in MFG-E8 expression. Conclusions In the present study, we demonstrated for the first time that MFG-E8 is significantly up-regulated in CP patients and together with fractalkine correlated noticeably with severe fibrosis and the presence of pain. hPSCs overexpress MFG-E8 upon fractalkine stimulation in vitro, which underlines the suggested immunmodulatory link in CP and may be a key mechanism in CP fibrogenesis and pain generation. Taken together, these novel findings suggest that MFG-E8 blockade may be a promising tool for future immunotherapy in CP to attenuate both fibrosis and

  2. Assessment of potentially salvageable myocardium during acute myocardial infarction: use of postextrasystolic potentiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgson, J M; O'Neill, W W; Laufer, N; Bourdillon, P D; Walton, J A; Pitt, B

    1984-12-01

    Twenty-three patients with evolving acute myocardial infarction (AMI) undergoing catheterization for thrombolytic therapy had interventional contrast ventriculography using programmed atrial stimulation. Postextrasystolic (PES) potentiation was present in 67% of infarct-related segments up to 9 hours after the onset of AMI. The presence of segmental potentiation was not related to time from onset of pain to ventriculography, initial ejection fraction, presence of collaterals, left ventricular end-diastolic pressure or the PES delay. In 18 patients reperfusion was successful using intracoronary streptokinase an average of 6.2 hours after the onset of AMI; in these patients repeat contrast ventriculography was performed an average of 11 days after AMI. Improved chronic segmental ventricular function was predicted by the presence of collaterals to the infarct-related artery at the time of acute catheterization (p = 0.02), but was best predicted by analysis of acute PES potentiation (p less than 0.0001). The predictive value of PES analysis was highest in segments without collaterals. Thus, atrial stimulation is safe during AMI and analysis of segmental ventricular function shows potentially viable myocardium up to 9 hours after the onset of AMI. In addition, analysis of PES segmental function can predict chronic function if reperfusion is successful, especially in segments without collaterals. PES ventriculographic analysis may allow prospective determination of which patients during AMI are most likely to benefit from acute thrombolytic therapy.

  3. Lipid content and composition of oocytes from five coral species: potential implications for future cryopreservation efforts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiahsin Lin

    Full Text Available Given the previously documented importance of lipid concentration and composition in the successful cryopreservation of gorgonian corals, these parameters were assessed in oocytes of five species of scleractinian coral; Platygyra daedalea, Echinopora gemmacea, Echinophyllia aspera, Oxypora lacera and Astreopora expansa. Wax esters, phosphatidylethanolamine, phosphatidylcholine, and fatty acids were all measured at detectable levels, and the latter were produced at significantly elevated quantities in E. gemmacea, E. aspera, and O. lacera. On the other hand, phosphatidylethanolamine, phosphatidylcholine, and wax ester were found at significantly higher concentrations in A. expansa oocytes. Triacylglycerol was not present in any species. Interestingly, the total lipid content of oocytes from all five scleractinians was significantly lower than that of oocytes of two gorgonian species, Junceella juncea and Junceella fragilis. As higher total lipid concentrations may be correlated with greater degrees of cellular membrane fluidity at lower temperatures, it stands to reason that gorgonian coral oocytes may be more likely to survive the cryopreservation process than oocytes of scleractinian corals.

  4. Assessment of flavaglines as potential chikungunya virus entry inhibitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wintachai, Phitchayapak; Thuaud, Frédéric; Basmadjian, Christine; Roytrakul, Sittiruk; Ubol, Sukathida; Désaubry, Laurent; Smith, Duncan R

    2015-03-01

    Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a re-emerging mosquito-borne alphavirus that recently caused large epidemics in islands in, and countries around, the Indian Ocean. There is currently no specific drug for therapeutic treatment or for use as a prophylactic agent against infection and no commercially available vaccine. Prohibitin has been identified as a receptor protein used by chikungunya virus to enter mammalian cells. Recently, synthetic sulfonyl amidines and flavaglines (FLs), a class of naturally occurring plant compounds with potent anti-cancer and cytoprotective and neuroprotective activities, have been shown to interact directly with prohibitin. This study therefore sought to determine whether three prohibitin ligands (sulfonyl amidine 1 m and the flavaglines FL3 and FL23) were able to inhibit CHIKV infection of mammalian Hek293T/17 cells. All three compounds inhibited infection and reduced virus production when cells were treated before infection but not when added after infection. Pretreatment of cells for only 15 minutes prior to infection followed by washing out of the compound resulted in significant inhibition of entry and virus production. These results suggest that further investigation of prohibitin ligands as potential Chikungunya virus entry inhibitors is warranted.

  5. Assessment of the phytoextraction potential of high biomass crop plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hernandez-Allica, Javier [NEIKER-tecnalia, Basque Institute of Agricultural Research and Development, c/Berreaga 1, E-48160 Derio (Spain); Becerril, Jose M. [Department of Plant Biology and Ecology, University of the Basque Country, P.O. Box 644, E-48080 Bilbao (Spain); Garbisu, Carlos [NEIKER-tecnalia, Basque Institute of Agricultural Research and Development, c/Berreaga 1, E-48160 Derio (Spain)], E-mail: cgarbisu@neiker.net

    2008-03-15

    A hydroponic screening method was used to identify high biomass crop plants with the ability to accumulate metals. Highest values of shoot accumulation were found in maize cv. Ranchero, rapeseed cv. Karat, and cardoon cv. Peralta for Pb (18 753 mg kg{sup -1}), Zn (10 916 mg kg{sup -1}), and Cd (242 mg kg{sup -1}), respectively. Subsequently, we tested the potential of these three cultivars for the phytoextraction of a metal spiked compost, finding out that, in cardoon and maize plants, increasing Zn and Cd concentrations led to lower values of root and shoot DW. By contrast, rapeseed shoot growth was not significantly affected by Cd concentration. Finally, a metal polluted soil was used to check these cultivars' phytoextraction capacity. Although the soil was phytotoxic enough to prevent the growth of cardoon and rapeseed plants, maize plants phytoextracted 3.7 mg Zn pot{sup -1}. We concluded that the phytoextraction performance of cultivars varies depending on the screening method used. - The phytoextraction performance of cultivars varies significantly depending on the screening method used.

  6. Complex Land Systems: the Need for Long Time Perspectives to Assess their Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Billie L. Turner

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The growing awareness about the need to anticipate the future of land systems focuses on how well we understand the interactions between society and environmental processes within a complexity framework. A major barrier to understanding is insufficient attention given to long (multidecadal temporal perspectives on complex system behavior that can provide insights through both analog and evolutionary approaches. Analogs are useful in generating typologies of generic system behavior, whereas evolutionary assessments provide insight into site-specific system properties. Four dimensions of these properties: (1 trends and trajectories, (2 frequencies, thresholds and alternate steady states, (3 slow and fast processes, and (4 legacies and contingencies, are discussed. Compilations and analyses of past information and data from instruments and observations, palaeoenvironmental archives, and human and environmental history are now the subject of major international effort. The embedding of empirical information over multidecadal timescales in attempts to define and model sustainable and adaptive management of land systems is now not only possible, but also necessary.

  7. Personal dose monitoring in hospitals: Global assessment, critical applications and future needs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is known that medical applications using ionising radiation are wide spread and still increasing. Physicians, technicians, nurses and others constitute the largest group of workers occupationally exposed to man-made sources of radiation. Many hospital workers are consequently subjected to routine monitoring of professional radiation exposures. in the university hospital, UZ Brussel, 600 out of 4000 staff members are daily monitored for external radiation exposures. The most obvious applications of ionising radiation are diagnostic radiology, diagnostic or therapeutic use of radionuclides in nuclear medicine and external radiation therapy or brachytherapy in radiotherapy departments. Other important applications also include various procedures in interventional radiology (IR), in vitro biomedical research and radiopharmaceutical production around cyclotrons. Besides the fact that many of the staff members, involved in these applications, are not measurably exposed, detailed studies were carried out at workplaces where routine dose monitoring encounters difficulties and for some applications where relatively high occupational exposures can be found. most of the studies are concentrated around nuclear medicine applications and IR. They contain assessments of both effective dose and doses at different parts of the body. The results contribute to better characterisation of the different workplaces in a way that critical applications can be identified. Moreover, conclusions point out future needs for practical routine dose monitoring and optimisation of radiation protection. (authors)

  8. An Assessment of Future Demands for and Benefits of Public Transit Services in Tennessee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Southworth, F.

    2003-06-10

    This report documents results from a study carried out by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Tennessee at Knoxville for the Office of Public Transportation, Tennessee Department of Transportation. The study team was tasked with developing a process and a supporting methodology for estimating the benefits accruing to the State from the operation of state supported public transit services. The team was also tasked with developing forecasts of the future demands for these State supported transit services at five year intervals through the year 2020, broken down where possible to the local transit system level. Separate ridership benefits and forecasts were also requested for the State's urban and rural transit operations. Tennessee's public transit systems are subsidized to a degree by taxpayers. It is therefore in the public interest that assessments of the benefits of such systems be carried out at intervals, to determine how they are contributing to the well-being of the state's population. For some population groups within the State of Tennessee these transit services have become essential as a means of gaining access to workplaces and job training centers, to educational and health care facilities, as well as to shops, social functions and recreational sites.

  9. An Assessment of Future Demands for and Benefits of Public Transit Srevices in Tennessee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Southworth, F.

    2004-04-29

    This report documents results from a study carried out by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Tennessee at Knoxville for the Office of Public Transportation, Tennessee Department of Transportation. The study team was tasked with developing a process and a supporting methodology for estimating the benefits accruing to the State from the operation of state supported public transit services. The team was also tasked with developing forecasts of the future demands for these State supported transit services at five year intervals through the year 2020, broken down where possible to the local transit system level. Separate ridership benefits and forecasts were also requested for the State's urban and rural transit operations. Tennessee's public transit systems are subsidized to a degree by taxpayers. It is therefore in the public interest that assessments of the benefits of such systems be carried out at intervals, to determine how they are contributing to the well-being of the state's population. For some population groups within the State of Tennessee these transit services have become essential as a means of gaining access to workplaces and job training centers, to educational and health care facilities, as well as to shops, social functions and recreational sites.

  10. Alluvial Diamond Resource Potential and Production Capacity Assessment of Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirico, Peter G.; Malpeli, Katherine C.; Anum, Solomon; Phillips, Emily C.

    2010-01-01

    In May of 2000, a meeting was convened in Kimberley, South Africa, and attended by representatives of the diamond industry and leaders of African governments to develop a certification process intended to assure that rough, exported diamonds were free of conflictual concerns. This meeting was supported later in 2000 by the United Nations in a resolution adopted by the General Assembly. By 2002, the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme (KPCS) was ratified and signed by both diamond-producing and diamond-importing countries. Over 70 countries were included as members at the end of 2007. To prevent trade in 'conflict' diamonds while protecting legitimate trade, the KPCS requires that each country set up an internal system of controls to prevent conflict diamonds from entering any imported or exported shipments of rough diamonds. Every diamond or diamond shipment must be accompanied by a Kimberley Process (KP) certificate and be contained in tamper-proof packaging. The objective of this study was to assess the alluvial diamond resource endowment and current production capacity of the alluvial diamond-mining sector in Ghana. A modified volume and grade methodology was used to estimate the remaining diamond reserves within the Birim and Bonsa diamond fields. The production capacity of the sector was estimated using a formulaic expression of the number of workers reported in the sector, their productivity, and the average grade of deposits mined. This study estimates that there are approximately 91,600,000 carats of alluvial diamonds remaining in both the Birim and Bonsa diamond fields: 89,000,000 carats in the Birim and 2,600,000 carats in the Bonsa. Production capacity is calculated to be 765,000 carats per year, based on the formula used and available data on the number of workers and worker productivity. Annual production is highly dependent on the international diamond market and prices, the numbers of seasonal workers actively mining in the sector, and

  11. Environmental assessment of waste management in Greenland: current practice and potential future developments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eisted, Rasmus; Christensen, Thomas Højlund

    2013-01-01

    The majority of the waste in Greenland is disposed of in open dumps or incinerated in simple small-scale incinerators. There are relatively few environmental regulations that control the emissions of leachate, landfill gas and/or flue gases from incineration. Only some scrap metal and hazardous......) for a system serving 56 000 inhabitants), but significant environmental loads are caused by air emissions from the incinerators and leachate from the landfills. Several alternative management scenarios were modelled and results show that increased use of incineration, full utilization of the heat production...... for district heating and separation of hazardous waste probably could improve Greenland’s waste management system. Segregation of recyclable materials as paper, cardboard and biowaste will do little to environmentally improve the waste management system due to loss of energy recovery from incineration...

  12. An assessment of the current and potential future natural and anthropogenic issues facing migratory shorebirds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sutherland, W.J.; Alves, J.A.; Chang, C.H.; Davidson, D.C.; Finlayson, C.M.; Gill, J.A.; Gill, R.E.; González, P.M.; Gunnarsson, T.G.; Kleijn, D.; Spray, C.J.; Szekely, T.; Thompson, D.B.A.

    2012-01-01

    We review the conservation issues facing migratory shorebird populations that breed in temperate regions and use wetlands in the non-breeding season. Shorebirds are excellent model organisms for understanding ecological, behavioural and evolutionary processes and are often used as indicators of wetl

  13. Floating Offshore Wind in California: Gross Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts from Two Future Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Speer, Bethany [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tegen, Suzanne [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-04-18

    Construction of the first offshore wind farm in the United States began in 2015, using fixed platform structures that are appropriate for shallow seafloors, like those located off of the East Coast and mid-Atlantic. However, floating platforms, which have yet to be deployed commercially, will likely need to anchor to the deeper seafloor if deployed off of the West Coast. To analyze the employment and economic potential for floating offshore wind along the West Coast, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) has commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to analyze two hypothetical, large-scale deployment scenarios for California: 16 GW of offshore wind by 2050 (Scenario A) and 10 GW of offshore wind by 2050 (Scenario B). The results of this analysis can be used to better understand the general scales of economic opportunities that could result from offshore wind development. Results show total state gross domestic product (GDP) impacts of $16.2 billion in Scenario B or $39.7 billion in Scenario A for construction; and $3.5 billion in Scenario B or $7.9 billion in Scenario A for the operations phases.

  14. Bladder Smooth Muscle Cells Differentiation from Dental Pulp Stem Cells: Future Potential for Bladder Tissue Engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bing Song

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Dental pulp stem cells (DPSCs are multipotent cells capable of differentiating into multiple cell lines, thus providing an alternative source of cell for tissue engineering. Smooth muscle cell (SMC regeneration is a crucial step in tissue engineering of the urinary bladder. It is known that DPSCs have the potential to differentiate into a smooth muscle phenotype in vitro with differentiation agents. However, most of these studies are focused on the vascular SMCs. The optimal approaches to induce human DPSCs to differentiate into bladder SMCs are still under investigation. We demonstrate in this study the ability of human DPSCs to differentiate into bladder SMCs in a growth environment containing bladder SMCs-conditioned medium with the addition of the transforming growth factor beta 1 (TGF-β1. After 14 days of exposure to this medium, the gene and protein expression of SMC-specific marker (α-SMA, desmin, and calponin increased over time. In particular, myosin was present in differentiated cells after 11 days of induction, which indicated that the cells differentiated into the mature SMCs. These data suggested that human DPSCs could be used as an alternative and less invasive source of stem cells for smooth muscle regeneration, a technology that has applications for bladder tissue engineering.

  15. US refining capacity for Canadian heavy oil : current overview and future potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This presentation provided an overview of the Canadian oil sands industry and investigated the potential heavy oil refining capacity of the United States. An outline of the first commercial developments of steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) in Alberta's oil sands was provided. Canada's reserves were compared with oil shale and heavy oil reserves in the United States and Venezuela. Influences of Canadian developments from western Canadian conventional crude oil were reviewed, and an oil sands production forecast was provided. Recent refining developments in the United States include delayed coking; catalytic cracking; fluid coking; flexicoking; and LC-fining. However, many oil sand producers are now choosing to upgrade oil, and producers are currently saturating United States markets with heavy crude oil. Canadian crude prices reached $90 per barrel in 2006. Heavy oil pipelines are now being constructed and existing heavy oil pipelines are being expanded. ConocoPhillips is planning to invest $1 billion for a new heavy oil coker, while BP is investing $3 billion for a heavy oil refinery in Indiana which plans to refine Canadian crude oil supplies. However, bitumens from Alberta are volatile in price, and excess Canadian production must be exported. Less than 10 per cent of western Canadian crude has tidewater access, and capital providers are concerned about cost over-runs. In order for the Canadian oil sands industry to succeed, refining capacity in the United States must be expanded, and open access must be provided to the Gulf coast as well as to the Pacific Ocean. tabs., figs

  16. Helium-3 inventory of lunar samples: A potential future energy resource for mankind?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murali, A. V.; Jordan, J. L.

    1993-01-01

    Recent public concern over the safety, cost, and environmental impact of the worldwide fission reactors has focused the attention of scientists and engineers towards perfecting fusion technology because it promises a much more environmentally acceptable 'clean' energy supply. The fusion reaction D-2 + He-3 yields p(14.7 MeV) + He-4(3.6 MeV) has long been recognized as an ideal candidate for producing commercially 'safer and cleaner' fusion power. Naturally occurring He-3 is scarce on earth; however, lunar regolith is a potential ore for He-3 because the high He-3 in solar wind has been implanted in the lunar regolith for more than 4 x 10(exp 9) years, along with other volatile species. The helium abundance in lunar soils is dependent not only on the maturity of soils (I(sub S)/FeO) but also on their mineralogy. The titanium-rich (ilmenite) lunar soils are important repositories for volatiles, which may be released by heating these soils up to approximately 700 C.

  17. Bariatric surgery and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: current and potential future treatments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akira eSasaki

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH are increasingly common cause of chronic liver disease worldwide. The diagnosis of NASH is challenging as most affected patients are symptom-free and the role of routine screening is not clearly established. Most patients with severe obesity who undergo bariatric surgery have NAFLD, which is associated insulin resistance, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM, hypertension, and obesity-related dyslipidemia. The effective treatment for NAFLD is weight reduction through lifestyle modifications, antiobesity medication, or bariatric surgery. Among these treatments, bariatric surgery is the most reliable method for achieving substantial, sustained weight loss. This procedure is safe when performed by a skilled surgeon, and the benefits include reduced weight, improved quality of life, decreased obesity-related comorbidities, and increased life expectancy. Further research is urgently needed to determine the best use of bariatric surgery with NAFLD patients at high risk of developing liver cirrhosis and its role in modulating complications of NAFLD, such as T2DM and cardiovascular disease. The current evidence suggests that bariatric surgery for patients with severe obesity decreases the grade of steatosis, hepatic inflammation, and fibrosis. However, further long-term studies are required to confirm the true effects before recommending bariatric surgery as a potential treatment for nonalcoholic steatohepatitis.

  18. Integrated assessment of future land use in Brazil under increasing demand for bioenergy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verstegen, Judith; van der Hilst, Floor; Karssenberg, Derek; Faaij, André

    2014-05-01

    Environmental impacts of a future increase in demand for bioenergy depend on the magnitude, location and pattern of the direct and indirect land use change of energy cropland expansion. Here we aim at 1) projecting the spatiotemporal pattern of sugar cane expansion and the effect on other land uses in Brazil towards 2030, and 2) assessing the uncertainty herein. For the spatio-temporal projection, four model components are used: 1) an initial land use map that shows the initial amount and location of sugar cane and all other relevant land use classes in the system, 2) an economic model to project the quantity of change of all land uses, 3) a spatially explicit land use model that determines the location of change of all land uses, and 4) various analysis to determine the impacts of these changes on water, socio-economics, and biodiversity. All four model components are sources of uncertainty, which is quantified by defining error models for all components and their inputs and propagating these errors through the chain of components. No recent accurate land use map is available for Brazil, so municipal census data and the global land cover map GlobCover are combined to create the initial land use map. The census data are disaggregated stochastically using GlobCover as a probability surface, to obtain a stochastic land use raster map for 2006. Since bioenergy is a global market, the quantity of change in sugar cane in Brazil depends on dynamics in both Brazil itself and other parts of the world. Therefore, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, MAGNET, is run to produce a time series of the relative change of all land uses given an increased future demand for bioenergy. A sensitivity analysis finds the upper and lower boundaries hereof, to define this component's error model. An initial selection of drivers of location for each land use class is extracted from literature. Using a Bayesian data assimilation technique and census data from 2007 to 2012 as

  19. The Future of Self-Assessment in Classroom Practice: Reframing Self-Assessment as a Core Competency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Gavin T. L.; Harris, Lois R.

    2014-01-01

    Formative assessment policies and self-regulation theories argue that student self-assessment of their own work and processes are useful for raising academic performance and self-regulatory skills. However, research into student self-evaluation raises serious doubts about the quality of self-assessment as an assessment process and identifies…

  20. Validating health impact assessment: Prediction is difficult (especially about the future)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Health impact assessment (HIA) has been recommended as a means of estimating how policies, programmes and projects may impact on public health and on health inequalities. This paper considers the difference between predicting health impacts and measuring those impacts. It draws upon a case study of the building of a new hypermarket in a deprived area of Glasgow, which offered an opportunity to reflect on the issue of the predictive validity of HIA, and to consider the difference between potential and actual impacts. We found that the actual impacts of the new hypermarket on diet differed from that which would have been predicted based on previous studies. Furthermore, they challenge current received wisdom about the impact of food retail outlets in poorer areas. These results are relevant to the validity of HIA as a process and emphasise the importance of further research on the predictive validity of HIA, which should help improve its value to decision-makers

  1. High organic containing tanks: Assessing the hazard potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eight Hanford Site tanks contain organic chemicals at concentrations believed to be greater than 10 mole percent sodium acetate equivalent mixed with the oxidizing salts sodium nitrate/sodium nitrite. Also, three of the hydrogen and ferrocyanide tanks appear on the organic tank list. Concentrations of organics that may be present in some tanks could cause an exothermic reaction given a sufficient driving force, such as high temperatures. However, the difference between ignition temperatures and actual tank temperatures measured is so large that the probability of such a reaction is considered very low. The consequences of the postulated reaction are about the same as the scenarios for an explosion in a ''burping'' hydrogen tank. Although work on this issue is just beginning, consideration of hazards associated with heating nitrate-nitrite mixtures containing organic materials is an integral part of both the hydrogen and ferrocyanide tank efforts. High concentrations of organic compounds have been inferred (from tank transfer, flow sheet records, and limited analytical data) in eight single-shell tanks. Many organic chemicals, if present in concentrations above 10 dry weight percent (sodium acetate equivalent), have the potential to react with nitrate-nitrites constituents at temperatures above 200 degree C (392 degree F) in an exothermic manner. The concentrations of organic materials in the listed single-shell tanks, and their chemical identity, is not accurately known at present. A tank sampling program has been planned to provide more information on the contents of these tanks and to serve as a basis for laboratory testing and safety evaluations. 2 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  2. Future management of hazardous wastes generated at Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York. Environmental assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document assesses the potential environmental impacts of a variety of alternatives which could provide a Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) permitted waste packaging and storage facility that would handle all hazardous, radioactive, and mixed wastes generated at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and would operate in full compliance with all federal, state, and local laws and regulations. Location of the existing Hazardous Waste Management Facility (HWMF) with respect to ground water and the site boundary, technical and capacity limitations, inadequate utilities, and required remediation of the area make the existing facility environmentally unacceptable for long term continued use. This Environmental Assessment (EA) describes the need for action by the Department of Energy (DOE). It evaluates the alternatives for fulfilling that need, including the alternative preferred by DOE, a no-action alternative, and other reasonable alternatives. The EA provides a general description of BNL and the existing environment at the current HWMF and alternative locations considered for a new Waste Management Facility (WMF). Finally, the EA describes the potential environmental impacts of the alternatives considered. The preferred alternative, also identified as Alternative D, would be to construct and operate a new WMF on land formerly occupied by barracks during Camp Upton operations, in an area north of Building 830 and the High Flux Beam Reactor/Alternating Gradient Synchrotron (AGS) recharge basins, east of North Railroad Street, and south of East Fifth Avenue. The purpose of this new facility would be to move all storage and transfer activities inside buildings and on paved and curbed areas, consolidate facilities to improve operations management, and provide improved protection of the environment

  3. Steps toward a globally available malaria vaccine: harnessing the potential of algae for future low cost vaccines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Carla S; Mayfield, Stephen P

    2013-01-01

    Malaria is an infectious disease that threatens half of the world's population. This debilitating disease is caused by infection from parasites of the genus Plasmodium. Insecticides, bed nets and drug therapies have lowered the prevalence and death rate associated with malaria but this disease continues to plague many populations around the world. In recent years, many organizations have suggested developing methods for a complete eradication of malaria. The most straightforward and effective method for this potential eradication will be through the development of a low-cost vaccine. To achieve eradication, it will be necessary to develop new vaccine candidates and novel systems for both the production and delivery of these vaccines. Recently, the green algae Chlamydomonas reinhardtii has been used for the recombinant expression of malaria vaccine candidates including the transmission blocking vaccine candidate Pfs48/45. Here, we discuss the potential of this research on the future development of a low-cost malaria vaccine candidate.

  4. Assessed Potential of Conifers as Proxy Paleo-wind Stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, W. L.

    2002-12-01

    A new method for extracting wind direction and velocity information from tree rings has been developed and applied to more than 60 conifers near two weather stations on the Olympic Peninsula of northwest Washington. Utilizing measurements from cores and full cross-sections, a mechanical wind-drag bending-moment model relates ring eccentricity to the horizontal component of unbalanced forces, principally wind, affecting the tree. Straight conifers on level ground typically develop thicker rings on the downwind side. The two study areas have very different wind patterns. At Port Angeles dominant wind is the westerly sea breeze, but at Quillayute dominant winds are southeast and southwest. Tested weather station record wind parameters include: annual (and seasonal) mean and summed velocity for hourly or peak daily observations. Sum velocity yields much higher significance than mean velocity in regressions against growth eccentricity, suggesting that tree response may be related to momentum transfer. Correlation significance increases when a 3-year running mean is applied to smooth out measurement error, delayed response to wind, and spatial wind variability; and when several trees are averaged, dispersing events such as limb loss. Linear regression of the vector resultants of eccentricity of Douglas-fir against annual sum velocity vector records at Port Angeles yields significant (P(t)wind. Scalar sum velocity and ring-width eccentricity data from these and other species are significantly correlated at both areas. Seasonal assessment of eccentricity response to wind at the Pacific coast suggests that very high velocities, especially during growth season, promote thinner rings on the downwind side. In such cases predicted response is delayed by up to 8 years. Rainfall is a significant co-contributor to eccentricity only at the wetter coastal sites, and some delayed response there seems triggered by wet growth season conditions. Wavelet analysis of eccentricity of old

  5. Independent Review of Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Review Panel: Soroosh Sorooshian, Ph.D., Panel Chairperson, University of California, Irvine; Jan M. H. Hendrickx, Ph.D., New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology; Binayak P. Mohanty, Ph.D., Texas A& M University; Scott W. Tyler, Ph.D., University of Nevada, Reno; Tian-Chyi Jim Yeh, Ph.D., University of Arizona -- ORISE Review Facilitators: Robert S. Turner, Ph.D., Technical Review Group Manager, Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education; Brian R. Herndon, Project Manager, Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education; Russ Manning, Technical Writer/Editor, Haselwood Enterprises, Inc.

    2008-08-30

    The DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) tasked Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) with providing an independent expert review of the documented model and prediction results for net infiltration of water into the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain. The specific purpose of the model, as documented in the report MDL-NBS-HS-000023, Rev. 01, is “to provide a spatial representation, including epistemic and aleatory uncertainty, of the predicted mean annual net infiltration at the Yucca Mountain site ...” (p. 1-1) The expert review panel assembled by ORISE concluded that the model report does not provide a technically credible spatial representation of net infiltration at Yucca Mountain. Specifically, the ORISE Review Panel found that: • A critical lack of site-specific meteorological, surface, and subsurface information prevents verification of (i) the net infiltration estimates, (ii) the uncertainty estimates of parameters caused by their spatial variability, and (iii) the assumptions used by the modelers (ranges and distributions) for the characterization of parameters. The paucity of site-specific data used by the modeling team for model implementation and validation is a major deficiency in this effort. • The model does not incorporate at least one potentially important hydrologic process. Subsurface lateral flow is not accounted for by the model, and the assumption that the effect of subsurface lateral flow is negligible is not adequately justified. This issue is especially critical for the wetter climate periods. This omission may be one reason the model results appear to underestimate net infiltration beneath wash environments and therefore imprecisely represent the spatial variability of net infiltration. • While the model uses assumptions consistently, such as uniform soil depths and a constant vegetation rooting depth, such assumptions may not be appropriate for this net infiltration simulation because they

  6. Independent Review of Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) tasked Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) with providing an independent expert review of the documented model and prediction results for net infiltration of water into the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain. The specific purpose of the model, as documented in the report MDL-NBS-HS-000023, Rev. 01, is 'to provide a spatial representation, including epistemic and aleatory uncertainty, of the predicted mean annual net infiltration at the Yucca Mountain site' (p. 1-1). The expert review panel assembled by ORISE concluded that the model report does not provide a technically credible spatial representation of net infiltration at Yucca Mountain. Specifically, the ORISE Review Panel found that: A critical lack of site-specific meteorological, surface, and subsurface information prevents verification of (1) the net infiltration estimates, (2) the uncertainty estimates of parameters caused by their spatial variability, and (3) the assumptions used by the modelers (ranges and distributions) for the characterization of parameters. The paucity of site-specific data used by the modeling team for model implementation and validation is a major deficiency in this effort. The model does not incorporate at least one potentially important hydrologic process. Subsurface lateral flow is not accounted for by the model, and the assumption that the effect of subsurface lateral flow is negligible is not adequately justified. This issue is especially critical for the wetter climate periods. This omission may be one reason the model results appear to underestimate net infiltration beneath wash environments and therefore imprecisely represent the spatial variability of net infiltration. While the model uses assumptions consistently, such as uniform soil depths and a constant vegetation rooting depth, such assumptions may not be appropriate for this net infiltration simulation because they oversimplify a complex

  7. Assessing the ecosystem service potential of Tucson AZ's urban forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavao-Zuckerman, M.

    2011-12-01

    Urbanization is arguably one of the most dramatic forms of landscape change, and an important anthropogenic influence on the structure and function of ecosystems. Cities have obvious impacts on local ecologies and environments, such as shifts in species diversity and alteration of local microclimates. While scientists are now familiar with many of these localized impacts of urbanization, cities and suburban areas contribute to 10-15 % of surface land cover in the conterminous U.S., pointing to the potential, yet poorly understood, contribution of cities to regional, national, and global carbon (C) and energy budgets. As cities continue to expand urban ecologists place more emphasis on understanding the functions of urban ecosystems and the ecosystem services (e.g. habitat, air, and water quality) that cities provide. While studies demonstrate that the urban environment alters the structure and function of remnant patches of native ecosystems relative to their non-urban counterparts, the ability of restoration, planning, and design to improve the provision of ecosystem services is a new approach within ecology. One strategy involves green urban design, or using ecological principles for planning or reinvigorating certain ecological processes, in cities. Increasing the amount of vegetative cover can reduce this effect by reinforcing ecosystem services in cities, including shading of surfaces, promotion of cooling through evapotranspiration, and the sequestration of atmospheric CO2 in plant tissues and soils. However, the on-the-ground reality of such strategies is relatively unknown. A pilot study is being conducted in Tucson, AZ to investigate the impact of increasing the cover of trees in the urban landscape on local microclimates and the urban heat island. Trees (Velvet Mesquite, Chilean Mesquite, and Desert Willow) were planted in two neighborhoods in Tucson in 1990. We are collecting data during the summer 2011 monsoon (DBH, crown volume, and hemispherical

  8. Present and future utility of computed tomography scanning in the assessment and management of COPD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostridge, Kristoffer; Wilkinson, Tom M A

    2016-07-01

    Computed tomography (CT) is the modality of choice for imaging the thorax and lung structure. In chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), it used to recognise the key morphological features of emphysema, bronchial wall thickening and gas trapping. Despite this, its place in the investigation and management of COPD is yet to be determined, and it is not routinely recommended. However, lung CT already has important clinical applications where it can be used to diagnose concomitant pathology and determine which patients with severe emphysema are appropriate for lung volume reduction procedures. Furthermore, novel quantitative analysis techniques permit objective measurements of pulmonary and extrapulmonary manifestations of the disease. These techniques can give important insights into COPD, and help explore the heterogeneity and underlying mechanisms of the condition. In time, it is hoped that these techniques can be used in clinical trials to help develop disease-specific therapy and, ultimately, as a clinical tool in identifying patients who would benefit most from new and existing treatments. This review discusses the current clinical applications for CT imaging in COPD and quantification techniques, and its potential future role in stratifying disease for optimal outcome. PMID:27230448

  9. An Assessment of the Economics of Future Electric Power Generation Options and the Implications for Fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study examines the potential range of electric power costs for some major alternatives to fusion electric power generation when it is ultimately deployed in the middle of the 21st century and, thus, offers a perspective on the cost levels that fusion must achieve to be competitive. The alternative technologies include coal burning, coal gasification, natural gas, nuclear fission, and renewable energy. The cost of electricity (COE) from the alternatives to fusion should remain in the 30-50 mils/kWh (1999 dollars) range of today in carbon sequestration is not needed, 30-60 mils/kWh if sequestration is required, or as high as 75 mils/kWh for the worst-case scenario for cost uncertainty. The reference COE range for fusion was estimated at 70-100 nmils/kWh for 1- to 1.3-GW(e) scale power plants. Fusion costs will have to be reduced and/or alternative concepts derived before fusion will be competitive with the alternatives for the future production of electricity. Fortunately, there are routes to achieve this goal

  10. Atmospheric ethanol in London and the potential impacts of future fuel formulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunmore, Rachel E; Whalley, Lisa K; Sherwen, Tomás; Evans, Mathew J; Heard, Dwayne E; Hopkins, James R; Lee, James D; Lewis, Alastair C; Lidster, Richard T; Rickard, Andrew R; Hamilton, Jacqueline F

    2016-07-18

    increased concentrations of ethanol and acetaldehyde from primary emissions impacts both radical and NOx cycling over Europe, resulting in significant regional impacts on NOy speciation and O3 concentrations, with potential changes to human exposure to air pollutants.

  11. Atmospheric ethanol in London and the potential impacts of future fuel formulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunmore, Rachel E; Whalley, Lisa K; Sherwen, Tomás; Evans, Mathew J; Heard, Dwayne E; Hopkins, James R; Lee, James D; Lewis, Alastair C; Lidster, Richard T; Rickard, Andrew R; Hamilton, Jacqueline F

    2016-07-18

    increased concentrations of ethanol and acetaldehyde from primary emissions impacts both radical and NOx cycling over Europe, resulting in significant regional impacts on NOy speciation and O3 concentrations, with potential changes to human exposure to air pollutants. PMID:27092375

  12. Assessing 'Dangerous Climate Change': Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Demotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrum, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Conrad; VanSusteren, Lise; VonShuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C.

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of approx.500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of approx.1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2 C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4 C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  13. Unlocking the Treasures of the Ocean: Current Assessment and Future Perspectives of Seafloor Resources (C.F Gauss Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jegen, Marion

    2016-04-01

    Oceans cover 70% of the Earth's surface, and there is reason to believe that the wealth of mineral and carbon resources on the seafloor is similar to deposits on land. While off-shore energy resources such as oil and gas are nowadays regarded as conventional, energy resources in form of methane hydrates and seafloor mineral deposits are yet unconventional and at best marginally economic. However, taking into account global population growth, geopolitics and technological development (both in terms of increasing industrialization and possibility to explore and mine seafloor resources), these resources might play a more fundamental role in the future. Resource assessment and understanding of the geological formation process of resources are topics in marine geosciences with broad relevance to society. The lecture presents an overview of the geophysical exploration of the seafloor and its resource potential. Starting from the link of physical parameter anomalies associated with resources, I will explore marine technological developments on how to sense them remotely from the seafloor. Also the question will be addressed of how well we can actually quantify the amount of resources from geophysical data. The process will be illustrated based on theoretical work as well as case studies from around the world.

  14. Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J; Hearty, Paul J; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Konrad; Van Susteren, Lise; von Schuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  15. Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Hansen

    Full Text Available We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  16. Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Konrad; Van Susteren, Lise; von Schuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C.

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth’s measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today’s young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur “slow” feedbacks and eventual warming of 3–4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth’s energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels. PMID:24312568

  17. Predicting the current and future potential distributions of lymphatic filariasis in Africa using maximum entropy ecological niche modelling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannah Slater

    Full Text Available Modelling the spatial distributions of human parasite species is crucial to understanding the environmental determinants of infection as well as for guiding the planning of control programmes. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to map the current potential distribution of the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF, in Africa, and to estimate how future changes in climate and population could affect its spread and burden across the continent. We used 508 community-specific infection presence data collated from the published literature in conjunction with five predictive environmental/climatic and demographic variables, and a maximum entropy niche modelling method to construct the first ecological niche maps describing potential distribution and burden of LF in Africa. We also ran the best-fit model against climate projections made by the HADCM3 and CCCMA models for 2050 under A2a and B2a scenarios to simulate the likely distribution of LF under future climate and population changes. We predict a broad geographic distribution of LF in Africa extending from the west to the east across the middle region of the continent, with high probabilities of occurrence in the Western Africa compared to large areas of medium probability interspersed with smaller areas of high probability in Central and Eastern Africa and in Madagascar. We uncovered complex relationships between predictor ecological niche variables and the probability of LF occurrence. We show for the first time that predicted climate change and population growth will expand both the range and risk of LF infection (and ultimately disease in an endemic region. We estimate that populations at risk to LF may range from 543 and 804 million currently, and that this could rise to between 1.65 to 1.86 billion in the future depending on the climate scenario used and thresholds applied to signify infection presence.

  18. Present and potential future distribution of common vampire bats in the Americas and the associated risk to cattle.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana N Lee

    Full Text Available Success of the cattle industry in Latin America is impeded by the common vampire bat, Desmodus rotundus, through decreases in milk production and mass gain and increased risk of secondary infection and rabies. We used ecological niche modeling to predict the current potential distribution of D. rotundus and the future distribution of the species for the years 2030, 2050, and 2080 based on the A2, A1B, and B1 climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We then combined the present day potential distribution with cattle density estimates to identify areas where cattle are at higher risk for the negative impacts due to D. rotundus. We evaluated our risk prediction by plotting 17 documented outbreaks of cattle rabies. Our results indicated highly suitable habitat for D. rotundus occurs throughout most of Mexico and Central America as well as portions of Venezuela, Guyana, the Brazilian highlands, western Ecuador, northern Argentina, and east of the Andes in Peru, Bolivia, and Paraguay. With future climate projections suitable habitat for D. rotundus is predicted in these same areas and additional areas in French Guyana, Suriname, Venezuela and Columbia; however D. rotundus are not likely to expand into the U.S. because of inadequate 'temperature seasonality.' Areas with large portions of cattle at risk include Mexico, Central America, Paraguay, and Brazil. Twelve of 17 documented cattle rabies outbreaks were represented in regions predicted at risk. Our present day and future predictions can help authorities focus rabies prevention efforts and inform cattle ranchers which areas are at an increased risk of cattle rabies because it has suitable habitat for D. rotundus.

  19. Health and environmental risk assessment associated with a potential recovery of the Russian submarine K-27

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hosseini, A.; Amundsen, I.; Brown, J.E.; Dowdall, M.; Standring, W. [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority/CERAD CoE (Norway); Bartnicki, J. [Norwegian Meteorological Institute/CERAD CoE (Norway); Karcher, M. [O.A.Sys - Ocean Atmosphere Systems GmbH (Germany); Lind, O.C.; Salbu, B. [Norwegian University of Life Sciences/CERAD CoE (Norway)

    2014-07-01

    The nuclear submarine K-27 is one of several objects with spent nuclear fuel (SNF) which has been dumped in the Arctic. It contained two liquid metal reactors (LMRs) of 70 MW maximum thermal power each and used Pb-Bi as the coolant. The reactors were loaded with 180 kg of U-235 at an enrichment of 90 %. In September 1981, the submarine was sunk in the shallow waters of Stepovoy Fjord at an estimated depth of 30 m. Concerns have been expressed by various parties regarding the issue of dumped nuclear waste in the Kara Sea and in particular the submarine K-27. To address these concerns and to provide a better basis for evaluating possible radiological impact (especially as a consequence of a potential recovery of the submarine), an environmental impact assessment has been undertaken. The study is based on construction of different hypothetical accident scenarios and evaluating possible associated consequences for human and the environment. In general, three main scenarios seem probable and thus appropriate for consideration. One is the 'zero- alternative', i.e. investigate the current and future impact assuming no interventions. The second considers an accidental scenario involving the raising of the submarine and the third an accidental scenario related to the transportation of the submarine to shore for defueling. With regards to the accidental scenarios related to raising and transportation of the submarine, two alternatives can be considered depending on where and how a hypothetical accident will take place and whether the subsequent releases occur under water or at the water surface. The issue of an uncontrolled chain reaction occurring as a result of a potential recovery of the submarine will be included in the assessment. The work includes application of state of the art 3D hydrodynamic and atmospheric dispersion models to investigate the transport, distribution and fate of relevant radionuclides following a hypothetical accident in aquatic and

  20. On the future of civilian plutonium: An assessment of technological impediments to nuclear terrorism and proliferation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avedon, Roger Edmond

    This dissertation addresses the value of developing diversion- and theft-resistant nuclear power technology, given uncertain future demand for nuclear power, and uncertain risks of nuclear terrorism and of proliferation from the reprocessing of civilian plutonium. The methodology comprises four elements: Economics. An economic growth model coupled with market penetration effects for plutonium and for the hypothetical new technology provides a range of estimates for future nuclear demand. A flow model accounts for the longevity of capital assets (nuclear plants) over time. Terrorism. The commercial nuclear fuel cycle may provide a source of fissile material for terrorists seeking to construct a crude nuclear device. An option value model is used to estimate the effects of the hypothetical new technology on reducing the probability of theft. A game theoretic model is used to explore the deterrence value of physical security and then to draw conclusions about how learning on the part of terrorists or security forces might affect the theft estimate. The principal uncertainties in the theft model can be updated using Bayesian techniques as new data emerge. Proliferation. Access to fissile material is the principal technical impediment to a state's acquisition of nuclear weapons. A game theoretic model is used to determine the circumstances under which a state may proliferate via diversion. The model shows that the hypothetical new technology will have little value for counter-proliferation if diversion is not a preferred proliferation method. A technology policy analysis of the choice of proliferation method establishes that diversion is unlikely to be used because it has no constituency among the important parties to the decision, namely the political leadership, the scientific establishment, and the military. Value. The decision whether to develop a diversion- and theft-resistant fuel cycle depends on the perceived value of avoiding nuclear terrorism and proliferation