WorldWideScience

Sample records for assessing potential future

  1. Assessing potential future environmental legislative, regulatory, and judicial events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonn, B.; Schweitzer, M.; Godfrey, G. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Wagner, C. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville (United States); MacGregor, D.G. [MacGregor-Bates, Inc. (United States)

    1998-03-01

    This report describes a methodology to proactively and methodically assess future potential environmental legislative, regulatory, and judicial events. This is an important endeavor because new, revised, and reauthorized legislation, proposed and final regulations, and outcomes of judicial proceedings have the potential to impose new actions, directions, and costs of many organizations in the United States (related to capital investments, operating approaches, and research and development) and to affect the quality of life. The electric power industry is particularly impacted by environmental regulatory events (the term `regulatory` is used to cover all the types of legal events listed above), as the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity affects air and water quality, require disposal of solid, hazardous, and radioactive wastes, and at times, impacts wetlands and endangered species. Numerous potential regulatory events, such as the reauthorization of the Clean Water Act and new regulations associated with global climate change, can greatly affect the power industry. Organizations poised to respond proactively to such events will improve their competitive positions, reduce their costs in the long-term, and improve their public images.

  2. Wind diesel systems - design assessment and future potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Infield, D.G.; Scotney, A.; Lundsager, P.

    1992-01-01

    system models for assessing both dynamic characteristics and overall performance and economics. An introduction is provided to the Wind Diesel Engineering Design Toolkit currently under development (for implementation on PC) by a consortium of leading wind diesel experts, representing six European......Diesels are the obvious form. of back-up electricity generation in small to medium sized wind systems. High wind penetrations pose significant technical problems for the system designer, ranging from component sizing to control specification and dynamic stability. A key role is seen for proven...

  3. ASSESSMENT OF ALLERGENIC POTENTIAL OF GENETICALLY MODIFIED FOODS: AN AGENDA FOR FUTURE RESEARCH

    Science.gov (United States)

    AbstractSpeakers and participants in the Workshop Assessment of the Allergenic Potential of Genetically Modified Foods met in breakout groups to discuss a number of issues including needs for future research. There was agreement that research should move forward quickly in t...

  4. Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Popescu

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, which have fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence, hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB, and it analyses the maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin for a horizon of 30 yr (i.e. year 2040. Current hydropower production is estimated based on historical available data, while future energy production is deduced from the available water in the catchment (estimated based on measured hydrographs of the past years, whereas electricity demand is assessed by correlating existing electricity demand with the estimated population growth and economic development. The maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin were assessed for the mean annual flows of the present hydrological regime (1970–2000 and topographical characteristics of the area.

    Computations were performed using an integrated GIS environment called VAPIDRO-ASTE released by the Research on Energy System (Italy. The residual hydropower potential of the basin is computed considering first that the water supply needs for population, industry and agriculture are served, and then hydropower energy is produced. The calculated hydropower production is found to be approximately half of the estimated electricity demand, which shows that there is a need to look for other sources of energy in the future.

  5. Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popescu, I.; Brandimarte, L.; Perera, M. S. U.; Peviani, M.

    2012-08-01

    La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay), which have fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence, hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB), and it analyses the maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin for a horizon of 30 yr (i.e. year 2040). Current hydropower production is estimated based on historical available data, while future energy production is deduced from the available water in the catchment (estimated based on measured hydrographs of the past years), whereas electricity demand is assessed by correlating existing electricity demand with the estimated population growth and economic development. The maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin were assessed for the mean annual flows of the present hydrological regime (1970-2000) and topographical characteristics of the area. Computations were performed using an integrated GIS environment called VAPIDRO-ASTE released by the Research on Energy System (Italy). The residual hydropower potential of the basin is computed considering first that the water supply needs for population, industry and agriculture are served, and then hydropower energy is produced. The calculated hydropower production is found to be approximately half of the estimated electricity demand, which shows that there is a need to look for other sources of energy in the future.

  6. Assessment of future impacts of potential climate change scenarios on aquifer recharge in continental Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulido-Velazquez, David; Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Alcalá, Francisco J.

    2017-04-01

    This research proposes and applies a method to assess potential impacts of future climatic scenarios on aquifer rainfall recharge in wide and varied regions. The continental Spain territory was selected to show the application. The method requires to generate future series of climatic variables (precipitation, temperature) in the system to simulate them within a previously calibrated hydrological model for the historical data. In a previous work, Alcalá and Custodio (2014) used the atmospheric chloride mass balance (CMB) method for the spatial evaluation of average aquifer recharge by rainfall over the whole of continental Spain, by assuming long-term steady conditions of the balance variables. The distributed average CMB variables necessary to calculate recharge were estimated from available variable-length data series of variable quality and spatial coverage. The CMB variables were regionalized by ordinary kriging at the same 4976 nodes of a 10 km x 10 km grid. Two main sources of uncertainty affecting recharge estimates (given by the coefficient of variation, CV), induced by the inherent natural variability of the variables and from mapping were segregated. Based on these stationary results we define a simple empirical rainfall-recharge model. We consider that spatiotemporal variability of rainfall and temperature are the most important climatic feature and variables influencing potential aquifer recharge in natural regime. Changes in these variables can be important in the assessment of future potential impacts of climatic scenarios over spatiotemporal renewable groundwater resource. For instance, if temperature increases, actual evapotranspitration (EA) will increases reducing the available water for others groundwater balance components, including the recharge. For this reason, instead of defining an infiltration rate coefficient that relates precipitation (P) and recharge we propose to define a transformation function that allows estimating the spatial

  7. Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Chunyang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Huang, Qingxu; Zhang, Qiaofeng; Zhang, Da

    2015-11-01

    Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Projecting future grassland productivity to assess thesustainability of potential biofuel feedstock areas in theGreater Platte River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.; Boyte, Stephen; Phuyal, Khem P.

    2014-01-01

    This study projects future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) grassland productivities in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB) using ecosystem performance (EP, a surrogate for measuring ecosystem productivity) models and future climate projections. The EP models developed from a previous study were based on the satellite vegetation index, site geophysical and biophysical features, and weather and climate drivers. The future climate data used in this study were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 3.0 ‘SRES A1B’ (a ‘middle’ emissions path). The main objective of this study is to assess the future sustainability of the potential biofuel feedstock areas identified in a previous study. Results show that the potential biofuel feedstock areas (the more mesic eastern part of the GPRB) will remain productive (i.e., aboveground grassland biomass productivity >2750 kg ha−1 year−1) with a slight increasing trend in the future. The spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3519, 3432, 3557, 3605, 3752, and 3583 kg ha−1 year−1 for current site potential (2000–2008 average), 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099, respectively. Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will likely continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, grasslands identified as having no biofuel potential in the drier western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1822, 1691, 1896, 2306, 1994, and 2169 kg ha−1 year−1 for site potential, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099). These areas should continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. These future grassland productivity estimation maps can help land managers to understand and adapt to the expected changes in future EP in the GPRB and to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of potential biofuel feedstock areas.

  9. Assessing potential changes of chestnut productivity in Europe under future climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calheiros, T.; Pereira, M. G.; Pinto, J. G.; Caramelo, L.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Dacamara, C. C.

    2012-04-01

    The European chestnut is cultivated for its nuts and wood. Several studies point to the dependency of chestnut productivity on specific soil and climate characteristics. For instance, this species dislikes chalky and poorly drained soils, appreciates sedimentary, siliceous and acidic to neutral soils. Chestnut trees also seems to appreciate annual mean values of sunlight spanning between 2400 and 2600 h, rainfall ranging between 600 and 1500 mm, mean annual temperature between 9 and 13°C, 27°C being the mean of the maximum temperature (Heiniger and Conedera, 1992; Gomes-Laranjo et al.,2008). The amount of heat between May and October must range between 1800°D and 2400°D (Dinis et al., 2011) . In Poland, the growing season is defined as the period of time when the mean 24-h temperature is greater than 5°C (Wilczynski and Podalski, 2007). In Portugal, maximum photosynthetic activity occurs at 24-28°C for adult trees, but exhibits more than 50% of termoinhibition when the air temperature is above 32°C, which is frequent during summer (Gomes- Laranjo et al., 2006, 2008). Recently Pereira et al (2011) identified a set of meteorological variables/parameters with high impact on chestnut productivity. The main purpose of this work is to assess the potential impacts of future climate change on chestnut productivity in Portugal as well as on European chestnut orchards. First, observed data from the European Climate assessment (ECA) and simulations with the Regional Circulation Model (RCM) COSMO-CLM for recent climate conditions are used to assess the ability of the RCM to model the actual meteorological conditions. Then, ensemble projections from the ECHAM5/COSMO-CLM model chain for two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) are used to estimate the values of relevant meteorological variables and parameters und future climate conditions. Simulated values are then compared with those obtained for present climate. Results point to changes in the spatial and temporal

  10. Assessments of Future Maize Yield Potential Changes in the Korean Peninsula Using Multiple Crop Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S. H.; Lim, C. H.; Kim, J.; Lee, W. K.; Kafatos, M.

    2016-12-01

    The Korean Peninsula has unique agricultural environment due to the differences of political and socio-economical system between Republic of Korea (SK, hereafter) and Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea (NK, hereafter). NK has been suffering lack of food supplies caused by natural disasters, land degradation and political failure. The neighboring developed country SK has better agricultural system but very low food self-sufficiency rate. Maize is an important crop in both countries since it is staple food for NK and SK is No. 2 maize importing country in the world after Japan. Therefore, evaluating maize yield potential (Yp) in the two distinct regions is essential to assess food security under climate change and variability. In this study, we utilized multiple process-based crop models, having ability of regional scale assessment, to evaluate maize Yp and assess the model uncertainties -EPIC, GEPIC, DSSAT, and APSIM model that has capability of regional scale expansion (apsimRegions). First we evaluated each crop model for 3 years from 2012 to 2014 using reanalysis data (RDAPS; Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System produced by Korea Meteorological Agency) and observed yield data. Each model performances were compared over the different regions in the Korean Peninsula having different local climate characteristics. To quantify of the major influence of at each climate variables, we also conducted sensitivity test using 20 years of climatology in historical period from 1981 to 2000. Lastly, the multi-crop model ensemble analysis was performed for future period from 2031 to 2050. The required weather variables projected for mid-century were employed from COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) East Asia. The high-resolution climate data were obtained from multiple regional climate models (RCM) driven by multiple climate scenarios projected from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in conjunction with multiple greenhouse gas

  11. A Critical Assessment of the Resource Depletion Potential of Current and Future Lithium-Ion Batteries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jens F. Peters

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Resource depletion aspects are repeatedly used as an argument for a shift towards new battery technologies. However, whether serious shortages due to the increased demand for traction and stationary batteries can actually be expected is subject to an ongoing discussion. In order to identify the principal drivers of resource depletion for battery production, we assess different lithium-ion battery types and a new lithium-free battery technology (sodium-ion under this aspect, applying different assessment methodologies. The findings show that very different results are obtained with existing impact assessment methodologies, which hinders clear interpretation. While cobalt, nickel and copper can generally be considered as critical metals, the magnitude of their depletion impacts in comparison with that of other battery materials like lithium, aluminum or manganese differs substantially. A high importance is also found for indirect resource depletion effects caused by the co-extraction of metals from mixed ores. Remarkably, the resource depletion potential per kg of produced battery is driven only partially by the electrode materials and thus depends comparably little on the battery chemistry itself. One of the key drivers for resource depletion seems to be the metals (and co-products in electronic parts required for the battery management system, a component rather independent from the actual battery chemistry. However, when assessing the batteries on a capacity basis (per kWh storage capacity, a high-energy density also turns out to be relevant, since it reduces the mass of battery required for providing one kWh, and thus the associated resource depletion impacts.

  12. Assessing current and future techno-economic potential of concentrated solar power and photovoltaic electricity generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Köberle, Alexandre C.; Gernaat, David E H J; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2015-01-01

    CSP and PV technologies represent energy sources with large potentials. We present cost-supply curves for both technologies using a consistent methodology for 26 regions, based on geoexplicit information on solar radiation, land cover type and slope, exploring individual potential and

  13. Potential Futures for Information.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ackermann, Mark R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-11-01

    Information is one of the most powerful tools available today. All advances in technology may be used, as David Sarnoff said, for the benefit or harm of society. Information can be used to shape the future by free people, or used to control people by less than benevolent governments, as has been demonstrated since the mid - 1930s, and with growing frequency over the past 50 years. What promised to once set people free and fuel an industrial revolution that might improve the standard of living over most of the world, has also been used to manipulate and enslave entire populations. The future of information is tied to the future of technologies that support the collection of data, processing those data into information and knowledge, and distribution. Technologies supporting the future of information must include technologies that help protect the integrity of data and information, and help to guarantee its discoverability and appropriate availability -- often to the whole of society. This Page Intentionally Left Blank

  14. Assessment of the potential of colloidal fuels in future energy usage. Final report. [97 references

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1980-02-25

    Pulverized coal has been an increasing important source of energy over the past century. Most large utility boilers, all modern coking plants, and many industrial boilers and blast furnaces employ pulverized coal as a major feed stream. In periods of oil shortages, such as during World Wars I and II, the concept of adding powdered coal to oil for use in combustion equipment originally designed for oil has been actively pursued but rarely used. Over this same period of time, there have been attempts to use air suspensions of coal dust in diesel engines in Germany, and in turbines in various countries. The economic advantages to be enjoyed by substitution of powdered coal in oil are not generally realized. Oil costs at $30/bbl represent a fuel value of about $5.00/10/sup 6/ Btu; coal at $25/ton is equivalent to approximately $1.00/10/sup 6/ Btu. Although capital costs for the use of coal are higher than those associated with the use of oil, coal is clearly becoming the least costly fuel. Not only are considerable cost advantages possible, but an improvement in balance of payments and an increase in reliability of fuel supplies are other potential benefits. It is therefore recommended that increased national attention be given to develop these finer grinds of carbonaceous fuels to be used in various suspending fluids. Technical areas where significant additional support appear desirable are described.

  15. A strategy for assessing potential future changes in climate, hydrology, and vegetation in the Western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Robert Stephen; Hostetler, Steven W.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Anderson, Katherine H.

    1998-01-01

    Historical and geological data indicate that significant changes can occur in the Earth's climate on time scales ranging from years to millennia. In addition to natural climatic change, climatic changes may occur in the near future due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere that are the result of human activities. International research efforts using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM's) to assess potential climatic conditions under atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of twice the pre-industrial level (a '2 X CO2' atmosphere) conclude that climate would warm on a global basis. However, it is difficult to assess how the projected warmer climatic conditions would be distributed on a regional scale and what the effects of such warming would be on the landscape, especially for temperate mountainous regions such as the Western United States. In this report, we present a strategy to assess the regional sensitivity to global climatic change. The strategy makes use of a hierarchy of models ranging from an AGCM, to a regional climate model, to landscape-scale process models of hydrology and vegetation. A 2 X CO2 global climate simulation conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) GENESIS AGCM on a grid of approximately 4.5o of latitude by 7.5o of longitude was used to drive the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM) over the Western United States on a grid of 60 km by 60 km. The output from the RegCM is used directly (for hydrologic models) or interpolated onto a 15-km grid (for vegetation models) to quantify possible future environmental conditions on a spatial scale relevant to policy makers and land managers.

  16. Identifying conservation successes, failures and future opportunities; assessing recovery potential of wild ungulates and tigers in Eastern Cambodia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Kelly, Hannah J; Evans, Tom D; Stokes, Emma J; Clements, Tom J; Dara, An; Gately, Mark; Menghor, Nut; Pollard, Edward H B; Soriyun, Men; Walston, Joe

    2012-01-01

    Conservation investment, particularly for charismatic and wide-ranging large mammal species, needs to be evidence-based. Despite the prevalence of this theme within the literature, examples of robust data being generated to guide conservation policy and funding decisions are rare. We present the first published case-study of tiger conservation in Indochina, from a site where an evidence-based approach has been implemented for this iconic predator and its prey. Despite the persistence of extensive areas of habitat, Indochina's tiger and ungulate prey populations are widely supposed to have precipitously declined in recent decades. The Seima Protection Forest (SPF), and broader Eastern Plains Landscape, was identified in 2000 as representing Cambodia's best hope for tiger recovery; reflected in its designation as a Global Priority Tiger Conservation Landscape. Since 2005 distance sampling, camera-trapping and detection-dog surveys have been employed to assess the recovery potential of ungulate and tiger populations in SPF. Our results show that while conservation efforts have ensured that small but regionally significant populations of larger ungulates persist, and density trends in smaller ungulates are stable, overall ungulate populations remain well below theoretical carrying capacity. Extensive field surveys failed to yield any evidence of tiger, and we contend that there is no longer a resident population within the SPF. This local extirpation is believed to be primarily attributable to two decades of intensive hunting; but importantly, prey densities are also currently below the level necessary to support a viable tiger population. Based on these results and similar findings from neighbouring sites, Eastern Cambodia does not currently constitute a Tiger Source Site nor meet the criteria of a Global Priority Tiger Landscape. However, SPF retains global importance for many other elements of biodiversity. It retains high regional importance for ungulate

  17. Identifying conservation successes, failures and future opportunities; assessing recovery potential of wild ungulates and tigers in Eastern Cambodia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannah J O'Kelly

    Full Text Available Conservation investment, particularly for charismatic and wide-ranging large mammal species, needs to be evidence-based. Despite the prevalence of this theme within the literature, examples of robust data being generated to guide conservation policy and funding decisions are rare. We present the first published case-study of tiger conservation in Indochina, from a site where an evidence-based approach has been implemented for this iconic predator and its prey. Despite the persistence of extensive areas of habitat, Indochina's tiger and ungulate prey populations are widely supposed to have precipitously declined in recent decades. The Seima Protection Forest (SPF, and broader Eastern Plains Landscape, was identified in 2000 as representing Cambodia's best hope for tiger recovery; reflected in its designation as a Global Priority Tiger Conservation Landscape. Since 2005 distance sampling, camera-trapping and detection-dog surveys have been employed to assess the recovery potential of ungulate and tiger populations in SPF. Our results show that while conservation efforts have ensured that small but regionally significant populations of larger ungulates persist, and density trends in smaller ungulates are stable, overall ungulate populations remain well below theoretical carrying capacity. Extensive field surveys failed to yield any evidence of tiger, and we contend that there is no longer a resident population within the SPF. This local extirpation is believed to be primarily attributable to two decades of intensive hunting; but importantly, prey densities are also currently below the level necessary to support a viable tiger population. Based on these results and similar findings from neighbouring sites, Eastern Cambodia does not currently constitute a Tiger Source Site nor meet the criteria of a Global Priority Tiger Landscape. However, SPF retains global importance for many other elements of biodiversity. It retains high regional importance for

  18. Group B Streptococci serotype distribution in pregnant women in Ghana: assessment of potential coverage through future vaccines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinnemeier, C D; Brust, P; Owusu-Dabo, E; Sarpong, N; Sarfo, E Y; Bio, Y; Rolling, T; Dekker, D; Adu-Sarkodie, Y; Eberhardt, K A; May, J; Cramer, J P

    2015-11-01

    Group B streptococcal (GBS) colonization of pregnant women can lead to subsequent infection of the new-born and potentially fatal invasive disease. Data on GBS colonization prevalence and serotype distribution from Africa are scarce, although GBS-related infections are estimated to contribute substantially to infant mortality. In recent years, GBS vaccine candidates provided promising results in phase I and II clinical trials. We aimed to assess the prevalence and serotype distribution of GBS in Ghana since this knowledge is a prerequisite for future evaluation of vaccine trials. This double-centre study was conducted in one rural and one urban hospital in central Ghana, West Africa. Women in late pregnancy (≥35 weeks of gestation) attending the antenatal care clinic (ANC) provided recto-vaginal swabs for GBS testing. GBS isolates were analysed for serotype and antibiotic susceptibility. GBS-positive women were treated with intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis (IAP) according to current guidelines of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). In total, 519 women were recruited at both study sites, recto-vaginal swabs were taken from 509. The overall prevalence of GBS was 19.1% (18.1% in rural Pramso and 23.1% in urban Kumasi, restrospectively). Capsular polysaccharide serotype (CPS) Ia accounted for the most frequent serotype beyond all isolates (28.1%), followed by serotype V (27.1%) and III (21.9%). No resistance to Penicillin was found, resistances to second line antibiotics clindamycin and erythromycin were 3.1% and 1%, respectively. Group B Streptococcus serotype distribution in Ghana is similar to that worldwide, but variations in prevalence of certain serotypes between the urban and rural study site were high. Antibiotic resistance of GBS strains was surprisingly low in this study. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Future research needs associated with the assessment of potential human health risks from exposure to toxic ambient air pollutants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möller, Lennart; Schuetzle, Dennis; Autrup, Herman

    1994-01-01

    of identification and quantification of toxics in source emissions and ambient air, atmospheric transport and chemistry, exposure level assessment, the development of improved in vitro bioassays, biomarker development, the development of more accurate epidemiological methodologies, and risk quantification...... techniques. Studies are described that will be necessary to assess and reduce the level of uncertainties associated with each step of the risk assessment process. International collaborative research efforts between industry and government organizations are recommended as the most effective way to carry out......This paper presents key conclusions and future research needs from a Workshop on the Risk Assessment of Urban Air, Emissions, Exposure, Risk Identification, and Quantification, which was held in Stockholm during June 1992 by 41 participants from 13 countries. Research is recommended in the areas...

  20. Screening Assessment of Potential Human-Health Risk from Future Natural-Gas Drilling Near Project Rulison in Western Colorado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniels Jeffrey I.,Chapman Jenny B.

    2012-01-01

    The Project Rulison underground nuclear test was conducted in 1969 at a depth of 8,400 ft in the Williams Fork Formation of the Piceance Basin, west-central Colorado (Figure 1). The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) is the steward of the site. Their management is guided by data collected from past site investigations and current monitoring, and by the results of calculations of expected behavior of contaminants remaining in the deep subsurface. The purpose of this screening risk assessment is to evaluate possible health risks from current and future exposure to Rulison contaminants so the information can be factored into LM's stewardship decisions. For example, these risk assessment results can inform decisions regarding institutional controls at the site and appropriate monitoring of nearby natural-gas extraction activities. Specifically, the screening risk analysis can provide guidance for setting appropriate action levels for contaminant monitoring to ensure protection of human health.

  1. Assessment of the present and future offshore wind power potential: a case study in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lizuma, Lita; Avotniece, Zanita; Rupainis, Sergejs; Teilans, Artis

    2013-01-01

    Offshore wind energy development promises to be a significant domestic renewable energy source in Latvia. The reliable prediction of present and future wind resources at offshore sites is crucial for planning and selecting the location for wind farms. The overall goal of this paper is the assessment of offshore wind power potential in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast as well as the identification of a trend in the future wind energy potential for the study territory. The regional climate model CLM and High Resolution Limited Area Model (Hirlam) simulations were used to obtain the wind climatology data for the study area. The results indicated that offshore wind energy is promising for expanding the national electricity generation and will continue to be a stable resource for electricity generation in the region over the 21st century.

  2. Assessment of the Present and Future Offshore Wind Power Potential: A Case Study in a Target Territory of the Baltic Sea Near the Latvian Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teilans, Artis

    2013-01-01

    Offshore wind energy development promises to be a significant domestic renewable energy source in Latvia. The reliable prediction of present and future wind resources at offshore sites is crucial for planning and selecting the location for wind farms. The overall goal of this paper is the assessment of offshore wind power potential in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast as well as the identification of a trend in the future wind energy potential for the study territory. The regional climate model CLM and High Resolution Limited Area Model (Hirlam) simulations were used to obtain the wind climatology data for the study area. The results indicated that offshore wind energy is promising for expanding the national electricity generation and will continue to be a stable resource for electricity generation in the region over the 21st century. PMID:23983619

  3. Assessment of the Present and Future Offshore Wind Power Potential: A Case Study in a Target Territory of the Baltic Sea Near the Latvian Coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lita Lizuma

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Offshore wind energy development promises to be a significant domestic renewable energy source in Latvia. The reliable prediction of present and future wind resources at offshore sites is crucial for planning and selecting the location for wind farms. The overall goal of this paper is the assessment of offshore wind power potential in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast as well as the identification of a trend in the future wind energy potential for the study territory. The regional climate model CLM and High Resolution Limited Area Model (Hirlam simulations were used to obtain the wind climatology data for the study area. The results indicated that offshore wind energy is promising for expanding the national electricity generation and will continue to be a stable resource for electricity generation in the region over the 21st century.

  4. Assessment of the potential respiratory hazard of volcanic ash from future Icelandic eruptions: A study of archived basaltic to rhyolitic ash samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damby, David; Horwell, Claire J.; Larsen, Gudrun; Thordarson, Thorvaldur; Tomatis, Maura; Fubini, Bice; Donaldson, Ken

    2017-01-01

    BackgroundThe eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Grímsvötn (2011), Iceland, triggered immediate, international consideration of the respiratory health hazard of inhaling volcanic ash, and prompted the need to estimate the potential hazard posed by future eruptions of Iceland’s volcanoes to Icelandic and Northern European populations. MethodsA physicochemical characterization and toxicological assessment was conducted on a suite of archived ash samples spanning the spectrum of past eruptions (basaltic to rhyolitic magmatic composition) of Icelandic volcanoes following a protocol specifically designed by the International Volcanic Health Hazard Network. ResultsIcelandic ash can be of a respirable size (up to 11.3 vol.% cell-membrane damage. ConclusionsThe primary particle-specific concern is the potential for future eruptions of Iceland’s volcanoes to generate fine, respirable material and, thus, to increase ambient PM concentrations. This particularly applies to highly explosive silicic eruptions, but can also hold true for explosive basaltic eruptions or discrete events associated with basaltic fissure eruptions.

  5. Neuropsychological Assessment: Past and Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casaletto, Kaitlin B; Heaton, Robert K

    2017-10-01

    Neuropsychological assessment tools are the staple of our field. The development of standardized metrics sensitive to brain-behavior relationships has shaped the neuropsychological questions we can ask, our understanding of discrete brain functions, and has informed the detection and treatment of neurological disorders. We identify key turning points and innovations in neuropsychological assessment over the past 40-50 years that highlight how the tools used in common practice today came to be. Also selected for emphasis are several exciting lines of research and novel approaches that are underway to further probe and characterize brain functions to enhance diagnostic and treatment outcomes. We provide a brief historical review of different clinical neuropsychological assessment approaches (Lurian, Flexible and Fixed Batteries, Boston Process Approach) and critical developments that have influenced their interpretation (normative standards, cultural considerations, longitudinal change, common metric batteries, and translational assessment constructs). Lastly, we discuss growing trends in assessment including technological advances, efforts to integrate neuropsychology across disciplines (e.g., primary care), and changes in neuropsychological assessment infrastructure. Neuropsychological assessment has undergone massive growth in the past several decades. Nonetheless, there remain many unanswered questions and future challenges to better support measurement tools and translate assessment findings into meaningful recommendations and treatments. As technology and our understanding of brain function advance, efforts to support infrastructure for both traditional and novel assessment approaches and integration of complementary brain assessment tools from other disciplines will be integral to inform brain health treatments and promote the growth of our field. (JINS, 2017, 23, 778-790).

  6. Potential volcanic impacts on future climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bethke, Ingo; Outten, Stephen; Otterå, Odd Helge; Hawkins, Ed; Wagner, Sebastian; Sigl, Michael; Thorne, Peter

    2017-11-01

    Volcanic activity plays a strong role in modulating climate variability. Most model projections of the twenty-first century, however, under-sample future volcanic effects by not representing the range of plausible eruption scenarios. Here, we explore how sixty possible volcanic futures, consistent with ice-core records, impact climate variability projections of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) under RCP4.5 (ref. ). The inclusion of volcanic forcing enhances climate variability on annual-to-decadal timescales. Although decades with negative global temperature trends become ~50% more commonplace with volcanic activity, these are unlikely to be able to mitigate long-term anthropogenic warming. Volcanic activity also impacts probabilistic projections of global radiation, sea level, ocean circulation, and sea-ice variability, the local-scale effects of which are detectable when quantifying the time of emergence. These results highlight the importance and feasibility of representing volcanic uncertainty in future climate assessments.

  7. Potential future waste-to-energy systems

    OpenAIRE

    Thorin, Eva; Guziana, Bozena; Song, Han; Jääskeläinen, Ari; Szpadt, Ryszard; Vasilic, Dejan; Ahrens, Thorsten; Anne, Olga; Lõõnik, Jaan

    2012-01-01

    This report discusses potential future systems for waste-to-energy production in the Baltic Sea Region, and especially for the project REMOWE partner regions, the County of Västmanland in Sweden, Northern Savo in Finland, Lower Silesia in Poland, western part of Lithuania and Estonia. The waste-to-energy systems planned for in the partner regions are combustion of municipal solid waste (MSW) and solid recovered fuels from household and industry as well as anaerobic digestion of sewage sludge ...

  8. Probing quintessence potential with future cosmological surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeuchi, Yoshitaka; Ichiki, Kiyotomo; Takahashi, Tomo; Yamaguchi, Masahide

    2014-03-01

    Quintessence, a scalar field model, has been proposed to account for the acceleration of the Universe at present. We discuss how accurately quintessence models are discriminated by future cosmological surveys, which include experiments of CMB, galaxy clustering, weak lensing, and the type Ia SNe surveys, by making use of the conventional parameterized dark energy models. We can see clear differences between the thawing and the freezing quintessence models at more than 1σ (2σ) confidence level as long as the present equation of state for quintessence is away from -1 as wXgtrsim-0.95(-0.90). However, it is found to be difficult to probe the effective mass squared for the potential in thawing models, whose signs are different between the quadratic and the cosine-type potentials. This fact may require us to invent a new estimator to distinguish quintessence models beyond the thawing and the freezing ones.

  9. Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evangelista, P.H.; Kumar, S.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Young, N.E.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of our study was to estimate forest vulnerability and potential distribution of three bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) under current and projected climate conditions for 2020 and 2050. Our study focused on the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis), and pine engraver (Ips pini). This study was conducted across eight states in the Interior West of the US covering approximately 2.2millionkm2 and encompassing about 95% of the Rocky Mountains in the contiguous US. Our analyses relied on aerial surveys of bark beetle outbreaks that occurred between 1991 and 2008. Occurrence points for each species were generated within polygons created from the aerial surveys. Current and projected climate scenarios were acquired from the WorldClim database and represented by 19 bioclimatic variables. We used Maxent modeling technique fit with occurrence points and current climate data to model potential beetle distributions and forest vulnerability. Three available climate models, each having two emission scenarios, were modeled independently and results averaged to produce two predictions for 2020 and two predictions for 2050 for each analysis. Environmental parameters defined by current climate models were then used to predict conditions under future climate scenarios, and changes in different species' ranges were calculated. Our results suggested that the potential distribution for bark beetles under current climate conditions is extensive, which coincides with infestation trends observed in the last decade. Our results predicted that suitable habitats for the mountain pine beetle and pine engraver beetle will stabilize or decrease under future climate conditions, while habitat for the western pine beetle will continue to increase over time. The greatest increase in habitat area was for the western pine beetle, where one climate model predicted a 27% increase by 2050. In contrast, the predicted habitat of the

  10. RANGELAND SEQUESTRATION POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee Spangler; George F. Vance; Gerald E. Schuman; Justin D. Derner

    2012-03-31

    Rangelands occupy approximately half of the world's land area and store greater than 10% of the terrestrial biomass carbon and up to 30% of the global soil organic carbon. Although soil carbon sequestration rates are generally low on rangelands in comparison to croplands, increases in terrestrial carbon in rangelands resulting from management can account for significant carbon sequestration given the magnitude of this land resource. Despite the significance rangelands can play in carbon sequestration, our understanding remains limited. Researchers conducted a literature review to identify sustainably management practices that conserve existing rangeland carbon pools, as well as increase or restore carbon sequestration potentials for this type of ecosystem. The research team also reviewed the impact of grazing management on rangeland carbon dynamics, which are not well understood due to heterogeneity in grassland types. The literature review on the impact of grazing showed a wide variation of results, ranging from positive to negative to no response. On further review, the intensity of grazing appears to be a major factor in controlling rangeland soil organic carbon dynamics. In 2003, researchers conducted field sampling to assess the effect of several drought years during the period 1993-2002. Results suggested that drought can significantly impact rangeland soil organic carbon (SOC) levels, and therefore, carbon sequestration. Resampling was conducted in 2006; results again suggested that climatic conditions may have overridden management effects on SOC due to the ecological lag of the severe drought of 2002. Analysis of grazing practices during this research effort suggested that there are beneficial effects of light grazing compared to heavy grazing and non-grazing with respect to increased SOC and nitrogen contents. In general, carbon storage in rangelands also increases with increased precipitation, although researchers identified threshold levels of

  11. Estimation of potential evapotranspiration from extraterrestrial radiation, air temperature and humidity to assess future climate change effects on the vegetation of the Northern Great Plains, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominique M.; Symstad, Amy J.; Ferschweiler, Ken; Hobbins, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The potential evapotranspiration (PET) that would occur with unlimited plant access to water is a central driver of simulated plant growth in many ecological models. PET is influenced by solar and longwave radiation, temperature, wind speed, and humidity, but it is often modeled as a function of temperature alone. This approach can cause biases in projections of future climate impacts in part because it confounds the effects of warming due to increased greenhouse gases with that which would be caused by increased radiation from the sun. We developed an algorithm for linking PET to extraterrestrial solar radiation (incoming top-of atmosphere solar radiation), as well as temperature and atmospheric water vapor pressure, and incorporated this algorithm into the dynamic global vegetation model MC1. We tested the new algorithm for the Northern Great Plains, USA, whose remaining grasslands are threatened by continuing woody encroachment. Both the new and the standard temperature-dependent MC1 algorithm adequately simulated current PET, as compared to the more rigorous PenPan model of Rotstayn et al. (2006). However, compared to the standard algorithm, the new algorithm projected a much more gradual increase in PET over the 21st century for three contrasting future climates. This difference led to lower simulated drought effects and hence greater woody encroachment with the new algorithm, illustrating the importance of more rigorous calculations of PET in ecological models dealing with climate change.

  12. Quantifying potential future impacts of energy resource development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, C.; Haines, S. S.; Semmens, D. J.; Diffendorfer, J.; Bagstad, K.; Garman, S.

    2016-12-01

    Modeling the potential development of subsurface energy resources and the interplay with surface resources is challenging for a number of reasons. There is a lack of knowledge about the exact location(s) where future development is likely to occur, the associated development footprint, and the type and condition of co-located surface resources. The level of information available for modeling any of these components can range from limited to highly detailed, or somewhere in between, requiring a consistent and robust approach that is insensitive to data abundance.A Monte Carlo simulation approach for assessing the potential impacts of future resource development will be demonstrated. The approach uses standardized, peer-reviewed U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) continuous oil and gas assessments and data on ecological resources. USGS probabilistic assessments provide insight into the regional or basinal occurrence, accumulation, and volume of oil gas resources as well as related geologic uncertainties, while environmental and ecological data provide insight into the levels and patterns of ecosystem services in a region.Linking these multidisciplinary data and models at various scales through quantifiable relationships provides a mechanism for the assessment of multiple natural resources regardless of the level of information available. The approach provides reproducible estimates of the potential impacts of resource extraction that are consistent with the probabilistic nature of USGS energy resource assessments. This presentation will focus on application of the method with an illustration for potential development of continuous oil and gas resources in the Piceance Basin of western Colorado.

  13. Potential future land use threats to California's protected areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Tamara Sue; Sleeter, Benjamin Michael; Davis, Adam Wilkinson

    2015-01-01

    Increasing pressures from land use coupled with future changes in climate will present unique challenges for California’s protected areas. We assessed the potential for future land use conversion on land surrounding existing protected areas in California’s twelve ecoregions, utilizing annual, spatially explicit (250 m) scenario projections of land use for 2006–2100 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios to examine future changes in development, agriculture, and logging. We calculated a conversion threat index (CTI) for each unprotected pixel, combining land use conversion potential with proximity to protected area boundaries, in order to identify ecoregions and protected areas at greatest potential risk of proximal land conversion. Our results indicate that California’s Coast Range ecoregion had the highest CTI with competition for extractive logging placing the greatest demand on land in close proximity to existing protected areas. For more permanent land use conversions into agriculture and developed uses, our CTI results indicate that protected areas in the Central California Valley and Oak Woodlands are most vulnerable. Overall, the Eastern Cascades, Central California Valley, and Oak Woodlands ecoregions had the lowest areal percent of protected lands and highest conversion threat values. With limited resources and time, rapid, landscape-level analysis of potential land use threats can help quickly identify areas with higher conversion probability of future land use and potential changes to both habitat and potential ecosystem reserves. Given the broad range of future uncertainties, LULC projections are a useful tool allowing land managers to visualize alternative landscape futures, improve planning, and optimize management practices.

  14. The Future Potential of Internet of Things

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aelita Skaržauskienė

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To define the Internet of things and to analyze it as a background for the internet of services.Design/methodology/approach: The article discusses potential possibilities and problematic issues concerning the Internet of things (IoT and Internet of services (IoS. The debates concerning IoT and its possible application fields have continued for more than ten years. The technological background is there and the fields of application are broad. However, there is still a lack of understanding about the possible benefits that technology could give to various bodies if applied correctly. This article is based on comparison and analysis of scientific articles, research papers and case studies related to the potential for IoT and its implementation in IoS.Theoretical findings: IoT is a logical evolutionary step for the internet. Despite the technological background, the concept of objects which are aware of their surroundings, allow to manipulate them by defining different rule patterns and ensuring interaction possibilities with other objects or human beings. The necessity for web-based services is increasing along with the technological gadgets which support them. Applying things, which are connected in a network, could revolutionize many industry and service sectors and create new service provision and administration methods based on information technology. However, there are many problematic issues and research challenges related to the IoT. Few of the most significant are related to standardization of technology, legal regulation and ethical aspects concerning the IoT technology.Research limitations/implications: The IoT is a popular trend promoted by the business sector and governmental bodies. There are few comprehensive studies and projects which talk about the benefits that business and society could gain from the IoT. There is a lot less information about the possible risk and problematic aspects, and a lack of agreements between the

  15. Cord Blood Banking for Potential Future Transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shearer, William T; Lubin, Bertram H; Cairo, Mitchell S; Notarangelo, Luigi D

    2017-11-01

    This policy statement is intended to provide information to guide pediatricians, obstetricians, and other medical specialists and health care providers in responding to parents' questions about cord blood donation and banking as well as the types (public versus private) and quality of cord blood banks. Cord blood is an excellent source of stem cells for hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in children with some fatal diseases. Cord blood transplantation offers another method of definitive therapy for infants, children, and adults with certain hematologic malignancies, hemoglobinopathies, severe forms of T-lymphocyte and other immunodeficiencies, and metabolic diseases. The development of universal screening for severe immunodeficiency assay in a growing number of states is likely to increase the number of cord blood transplants. Both public and private cord blood banks worldwide hold hundreds of thousands of cord blood units designated for the treatment of fatal or debilitating illnesses. The procurement, characterization, and cryopreservation of cord blood is free for families who choose public banking. However, the family cost for private banking is significant and not covered by insurance, and the unit may never be used. Quality-assessment reviews by several national and international accrediting bodies show private cord blood banks to be underused for treatment, less regulated for quality control, and more expensive for the family than public cord blood banks. There is an unquestionable need to study the use of cord blood banking to make new and important alternative means of reconstituting the hematopoietic blood system in patients with malignancies and blood disorders and possibly regenerating tissue systems in the future. Recommendations regarding appropriate ethical and operational standards (including informed consent policies, financial disclosures, and conflict-of-interest policies) are provided for physicians, institutions, and organizations that

  16. The Future Potential of Internet of Things

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aelita Skaržauskienė

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To define the Internet of things and to analyze it as a background for the internet of services. Design/methodology/approach: The article discusses potential possibilities and problematic issues concerning the Internet of things (IoT and Internet of services (IoS. The debates concerning IoT and its possible application fields have continued for more than ten years. The technological background is there and the fields of application are broad. However, there is still a lack of understanding about the possible benefits that technology could give to various bodies if applied correctly. This article is based on comparison and analysis of scientific articles, research papers and case studies related to the potential for IoT and its implementation in IoS. Theoretical findings: IoT is a logical evolutionary step for the internet. Despite the technological background, the concept of objects which are aware of their surroundings, allow to manipulate them by defining different rule patterns and ensuring interaction possibilities with other objects or human beings. The necessity for web-based services is increasing along with the technological gadgets which support them. Applying things, which are connected in a network, could revolutionize many industry and service sectors and create new service provision and administration methods based on information technology. However, there are many problematic issues and research challenges related to the IoT. Few of the most significant are related to standardization of technology, legal regulation and ethical aspects concerning the IoT technology. Research limitations/implications: The IoT is a popular trend promoted by the business sector and governmental bodies. There are few comprehensive studies and projects which talk about the benefits that business and society could gain from the IoT. There is a lot less information about the possible risk and problematic aspects, and a lack of agreements between

  17. NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems Planning and Potential Future Systems Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakrajsek, June F.; Woerner, Dave F.; Cairns-Gallimore, Dirk; Johnson, Stephen G.; Qualls, Louis

    2016-01-01

    The goal of NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) Program is to make RPS ready and available to support the exploration of the solar system in environments where the use of conventional solar or chemical power generation is impractical or impossible to meet the needs of the missions. To meet this goal, the RPS Program, working closely with the Department of Energy, performs mission and system studies (such as the recently released Nuclear Power Assessment Study), assesses the readiness of promising technologies to infuse in future generators, assesses the sustainment of key RPS capabilities and knowledge, forecasts and tracks the Program's budgetary needs, and disseminates current information about RPS to the community of potential users. This process has been refined and used to determine the current content of the RPS Program's portfolio. This portfolio currently includes an effort to mature advanced thermoelectric technology for possible integration into an enhanced Multi-Mission Radioisotope Generator (eMMRTG), sustainment and production of the currently deployed MMRTG, and technology investments that could lead to a future Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG). This paper describes the program planning processes that have been used, the currently available MMRTG, and one of the potential future systems, the eMMRTG.

  18. NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems Planning and Potential Future Systems Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakrajsek, June F.; Woerner, Dave F.; Cairns-Gallimore, Dirk; Johnson, Stephen G.; Qualis, Louis

    2016-01-01

    The goal of NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) Program is to make RPS ready and available to support the exploration of the solar system in environments where the use of conventional solar or chemical power generation is impractical or impossible to meet the needs of the missions. To meet this goal, the RPS Program, working closely with the Department of Energy, performs mission and system studies (such as the recently released Nuclear Power Assessment Study), assesses the readiness of promising technologies to infuse in future generators, assesses the sustainment of key RPS capabilities and knowledge, forecasts and tracks the Programs budgetary needs, and disseminates current information about RPS to the community of potential users. This process has been refined and used to determine the current content of the RPS Programs portfolio. This portfolio currently includes an effort to mature advanced thermoelectric technology for possible integration into an enhanced Multi-Mission Radioisotope Generator (eMMRTG), sustainment and production of the currently deployed MMRTG, and technology investments that could lead to a future Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG). This paper describes the program planning processes that have been used, the currently available MMRTG, and one of the potential future systems, the eMMRTG.

  19. Assessment on the rates and potentials of soil organic carbon sequestration in agricultural lands in Japan using a process-based model and spatially explicit land-use change inventories - Part 2: Future potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yagasaki, Y.; Shirato, Y.

    2014-08-01

    Future potentials of the sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural lands in Japan were estimated using a simulation system we recently developed to simulate SOC stock change at country-scale under varying land-use change, climate, soil, and agricultural practices, in a spatially explicit manner. Simulation was run from 1970 to 2006 with historical inventories, and subsequently to 2020 with future scenarios of agricultural activity comprised of various agricultural policy targets advocated by the Japanese government. Furthermore, the simulation was run subsequently until 2100 while forcing no temporal changes in land-use and agricultural activity to investigate duration and course of SOC stock change at country scale. A scenario with an increased rate of organic carbon input to agricultural fields by intensified crop rotation in combination with the suppression of conversion of agricultural lands to other land-use types was found to have a greater reduction of CO2 emission by enhanced soil carbon sequestration, but only under a circumstance in which the converted agricultural lands will become settlements that were considered to have a relatively lower rate of organic carbon input. The size of relative reduction of CO2 emission in this scenario was comparable to that in another contrasting scenario (business-as-usual scenario of agricultural activity) in which a relatively lower rate of organic matter input to agricultural fields was assumed in combination with an increased rate of conversion of the agricultural fields to unmanaged grasslands through abandonment. Our simulation experiment clearly demonstrated that net-net-based accounting on SOC stock change, defined as the differences between the emissions and removals during the commitment period and the emissions and removals during a previous period (base year or base period of Kyoto Protocol), can be largely influenced by variations in future climate. Whereas baseline-based accounting, defined

  20. Bioactive glasses potential biomaterials for future therapy

    CERN Document Server

    Kaur, Gurbinder

    2017-01-01

    This book describes the history, origin and basic characteristics of bioactive materials. It includes a chapter dedicated to hydroxyapatite mineral, its formation and its bioactive properties. The authors address how cytotoxicity is a determining step for bioactivity. Applications of bioactive materials in the contexts of tissue regeneration, bone regeneration and cancer therapy are also covered. Silicate, metallic and mesoporous glasses are described, as well as the challenges and future prospects of research in this field.

  1. Combining emperical and theory-based land use modelling approaches to assess future availability of land and economic potential for sustainable biofuel production: Argentina as a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diogo, V.; van der Hilst, Floortje; van Eijck, Janske; Faaij, André; Verstegen, Judith; Hilbert, J.; Carballo, S.; Volante, J.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, a land-use modelling framework is presented combining empirical and theory-based modelling approaches to determine economic potential of biofuel production avoiding indirect land-use changes (iLUC) resulting from land competition with other functions. The empirical approach explores

  2. Assessing wheat production futures in the Ukraine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ryabchenko, O.; Nonhebel, S

    In future decades, the global demand for cereals will increase due to growing demand for food and feed and use of cereal crops as a source for biofuels. Some studies on cereal production within Europe have identified the Ukraine as a country with a large potential to increase production. However,

  3. Oral strip technology: overview and future potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixit, R P; Puthli, S P

    2009-10-15

    Over the recent past, many of the research groups are focusing their research on this technology. Amongst the plethora of avenues explored for rapid drug releasing products, Oral Strip Technology (OST) is gaining much attention. The advantages of OST are the administration to pediatric and geriatric patient population where the difficulty of swallowing larger oral dosage forms is eliminated. This technology has been used for local action, rapid release products and for buccoadhesive systems that are retained for longer period in the oral cavity to release drug in controlled fashion. OST offers an alternate platform for molecules that undergo first pass metabolism and for delivery of peptides. The review article is an overview of OST encompassing materials used in OST, critical manufacturing aspects, applications, commercial technologies and future business prospects of this technology.

  4. Global Energy Assessment. Toward a Sustainable Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johansson, T.B.; Nakicenovic, N.; Patwardhan, A.; Gomez-Echeverri, L. (eds.)

    2012-11-01

    The Global Energy Assessment (GEA) brings together over 300 international researchers to provide an independent, scientifically based, integrated and policy-relevant analysis of current and emerging energy issues and options. It has been peer-reviewed anonymously by an additional 200 international experts. The GEA assesses the major global challenges for sustainable development and their linkages to energy; the technologies and resources available for providing energy services; future energy systems that address the major challenges; and the policies and other measures that are needed to realize transformational change toward sustainable energy futures. The GEA goes beyond existing studies on energy issues by presenting a comprehensive and integrated analysis of energy challenges, opportunities and strategies, for developing, industrialized and emerging economies. This volume is an invaluable resource for energy specialists and technologists in all sectors (academia, industry and government) as well as policymakers, development economists and practitioners in international organizations and national governments.

  5. The Future Potential of Waver Power in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirko Previsic; Jeff Epler; Maureen Hand; Donna Heimiller; Walter Short; Kelly Eurek

    2012-09-20

    The theoretical ocean wave energy resource potential exceeds 50% of the annual domestic energy demand of the United States, is located close to coastal population centers, and, although variable in nature, may be more consistent and predictable than some other renewable generation technologies. As a renewable electricity generation technology, ocean wave energy offers a low air pollutant option for diversifying the U.S. electricity generation portfolio. Furthermore, the output characteristics of these technologies may complement other renewable technologies. This study addresses the following: (1) The theoretical, technical and practical potential for electricity generation from wave energy (2) The present lifecycle cost profile (Capex, Opex, and Cost of Electricity) of wave energy conversion technology at a reference site in Northern California at different plant scales (3) Cost of electricity variations as a function of deployment site, considering technical, geo-spatial and and electric grid constraints (4) Technology cost reduction pathways (5) Cost reduction targets at which the technology will see significant deployment within US markets, explored through a series of deployment scenarios RE Vision Consulting, LLC (RE Vision), engaged in various analyses to establish current and future cost profiles for marine hydrokinetic (MHK) technologies, quantified the theoretical, technical and practical resource potential, performed electricity market assessments and developed deployment scenarios. RE Vision was supported in this effort by NREL analysts, who compiled resource information, performed analysis using the ReEDSa model to develop deployment scenarios, and developed a simplified assessment of the Alaska and Hawaii electricity markets.

  6. Assessing potential future environmental legal events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonn, B. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Petrich, C. [The Ernst and Yound Center for Business Innovation, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1997-10-28

    This report addresses the topic of environmental citizenship in the United States. The term refers to responsibilities each of us have with respect to helping our communities and nation make sound environmental decisions. This research centers on the citizens and what we ought to be doing, as opposed to what the government ought to be doing for us, to improve environmental citizenship. This report examines four central questions: What are the requirements (i.e., responsibilities) of citizenship vis-a-vis environmental decision- making processes; what constraints limit people`s ability to meet these requirements; what does our form of governance do to help or hinder in meeting these requirements; and what recommendations can be put forth to improve public participation in environmental decision making?

  7. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  8. Conventional engine technology. Volume 3: Comparisons and future potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowdy, M. W.

    1981-01-01

    The status of five conventional automobile engine technologies was assessed and the future potential for increasing fuel economy and reducing exhaust emission was discussed, using the 1980 EPA California emisions standards as a comparative basis. By 1986, the fuel economy of a uniform charge Otto engine with a three-way catalyst is expected to increase 10%, while vehicles with lean burn (fast burn) engines should show a 20% fuel economy increase. Although vehicles with stratified-charge engines and rotary engines are expected to improve, their fuel economy will remain inferior to the other engine types. When adequate NO emissions control methods are implemented to meet the EPA requirements, vehicles with prechamber diesel engines are expected to yield a fuel economy advantage of about 15%. While successful introduction of direct injection diesel engine technology will provide a fuel savings of 30 to 35%, the planned regulation of exhaust particulates could seriously hinder this technology, because it is expected that only the smallest diesel engine vehicles could meet the proposed particulate requirements.

  9. GIS Based Analysis of future district heating potential in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steffen; Möller, Bernd

    2012-01-01

    The physical placement of buildings is important when determining the future potential for district heating (DH). Good locations for DH are mainly determined by having a large heat demand within a certain area combined with an access to local resources. In Denmark, the placement of buildings...

  10. Life cycle assessment : Past, present, and future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guinée, Jeroen B.; Heijungs, Reinout; Huppes, Gjalt; Zamagni, Alessandra; Masoni, Paolo; Buonamici, Roberto; Ekvall, Tomas; Rydberg, Tomas

    2011-01-01

    Environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) has developed fast over the last three decades. Whereas LCA developed from merely energy analysis to a comprehensive environmental burden analysis in the 1970s, full-fledged life cycle impact assessment and life cycle costing models were introduced in the

  11. USGCRP's Sustained Assessment Process: Progress to date and future plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeAngelo, B. J.; Reidmiller, D.; Lipschultz, F.; Cloyd, E. T.

    2016-12-01

    One of the four main objectives of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP's) Strategic Plan is to "Conduct Sustained Assessments", which seeks to build a process that synthesizes and advances the state of scientific knowledge on global change, develops future scenarios and potential impacts, and evaluates how effectively science is being and can be used to inform and support the Nation's response to climate change. To do so, USGCRP strives to establish a standing capacity to conduct national climate assessments with sectoral and regional information to evaluate climate risks and opportunities, and to inform decision-making, especially with regard to resiliency planning and adaptation measures. Building on the success of the 3rd National Climate Assessment (NCA) (2014), we discuss the range of USGCRP activities that embody the sustained assessment concept. Special reports, such as the recent Climate and Human Health Assessment and upcoming Climate Science Special Report, fill gaps in our understanding and provide crucial building blocks for next NCA report (NCA4). To facilitate the use of consistent assumptions across NCA4, new scenario products for climate, population, and land use will be made available through initiatives such as NOAA's Climate Resilience Toolkit. NCA4 will be informed by user engagement to advance the customization of knowledge. The report will strive to advance our ability to quantify various risks, monetize certain impacts, and communicate the benefits (i.e., avoided impacts) of various mitigation pathways. NCAnet (a national network of climate-interested stakeholders) continues to grow and foster collaborations across levels of governance and within civil society. Finally, USGCRP continues to actively engage with other assessment processes, at international, state, city, and tribal levels, to exchange ideas and to facilitate the potential for "linked" assessments across spatial scales.

  12. THE FUTURE OF TOXICITY TESTING AND ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The National Research Council's Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology is conducting a two-part study to assess and advance current approaches to toxicity testing and assessment to meet regulatory data needs. The first part of the study was completed January 2006, in which the committee prepared a report reviewing selected aspects of several relevant reports by EPA and others on this topic. In the second part of the study currently underway, the committee will prepare a final report presenting a long-range vision and strategic plan for advancing the practices of toxicity testing and human health assessment for environmental contaminants. In developing the vision and strategic plan, the committee will consider evolving regulatory data needs; current toxicity testing guidelines and standards used by EPA and other federal agencies; the use of emerging science and tools (e.g., genomics, proteomics, transgenics, bioinformatics, computational toxicology, in vitro testing, and other alternatives to animal testing); and the challenges of incorporating more complex understanding of toxicity (e.g., toxicokinetics, mechanisms of action, systems biology) into human health risk assessment. The final report is expected to be released as early as the end of January, 2007. To develop a long-range vision and strategic plan for advancing the practices of toxicity testing and human health assessment for environmental contaminants.

  13. NextGen Future Safety Assessment Game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ancel, Ersin; Gheorghe, Adrian; Jones, Sharon Monica

    2011-01-01

    The successful implementation of the next generation infrastructure systems requires solid understanding of their technical, social, political and economic aspects along with their interactions. The lack of historical data that relate to the long-term planning of complex systems introduces unique challenges for decision makers and involved stakeholders which in turn result in unsustainable systems. Also, the need to understand the infrastructure at the societal level and capture the interaction between multiple stakeholders becomes important. This paper proposes a methodology in order to develop a holistic approach aiming to provide an alternative subject-matter expert (SME) elicitation and data collection method for future sociotechnical systems. The methodology is adapted to Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) decision making environment in order to demonstrate the benefits of this holistic approach.

  14. Database for potential hazards from future volcanic eruptions in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Melissa N.; Ramsey, David W.; Miller, C. Dan

    2011-01-01

    More than 500 volcanic vents have been identified in the State of California. At least 76 of these vents have erupted, some repeatedly, during the past 10,000 yr. Past volcanic activity has ranged in scale and type from small rhyolitic and basaltic eruptions through large catastrophic rhyolitic eruptions. Sooner or later, volcanoes in California will erupt again, and they could have serious impacts on the health and safety of the State's citizens as well as on its economy. This report describes the nature and probable distribution of potentially hazardous volcanic phenomena and their threat to people and property. It includes hazard-zonation maps that show areas relatively likely to be affected by future eruptions in California. This digital release contains information from maps of potential hazards from future volcanic eruptions in the state of California, published as Plate 1 in U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 1847. The main component of this digital release is a spatial database prepared using geographic information systems (GIS) applications. This release also contains links to files to view or print the map plate, main report text, and accompanying hazard tables from Bulletin 1847. It should be noted that much has been learned about the ages of eruptive events in the State of California since the publication of Bulletin 1847 in 1989. For the most up to date information on the status of California volcanoes, please refer to the U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Hazards Program website.

  15. Future physics potential of CMS Phase II detector

    CERN Document Server

    Pozzobon, Nicola

    2015-01-01

    To extend the LHC physics program, it is foreseen to operate the LHC in the future with an unprecedented high luminosity. To maintain the experiment’s physics potential in such harsh environment, the detector will need to be upgraded. At the same time the detector acceptance will be extended and new features such as a L1 track trigger will be implemented. Simulation studies evaluated the performance of the new, proposed detector components in comparison to the present detector with the expected aging after 1000 fb$^{-1}$. The impact of the expected Phase II performance on representative physics channels is studied. The sensitivity to find new physics beyond the SM is significantly improved and will allow to extend the SUSY reach, search for dark matter and exotic long-lived signatures. Precision Higgs and standard model measurements will gain substantially due to the improved performance.

  16. High Density Electroencephalography in Sleep Research: Potential, Problems, Future Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lustenberger, Caroline; Huber, Reto

    2012-01-01

    High density EEG (hdEEG) during sleep combines the superior temporal resolution of EEG recordings with high spatial resolution. Thus, this method allows a topographical analysis of sleep EEG activity and thereby fosters the shift from a global view of sleep to a local one. HdEEG allowed to investigate sleep rhythms in terms of their characteristic behavior (e.g., the traveling of slow waves) and in terms of their relationship to cortical functioning (e.g., consciousness and cognitive abilities). Moreover, recent studies successfully demonstrated that hdEEG can be used to study brain functioning in neurological and neuro-developmental disorders, and to evaluate therapeutic approaches. This review highlights the potential, the problems, and future perspective of hdEEG in sleep research. PMID:22593753

  17. RPA Assessment of Outdoor Recreation: Past, Current, and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    John C. Bergstrom; H. Ken Cordell; Linda Langner

    1994-01-01

    In this paper, the outdoor recreation sections of the Renewable Resource Planning Act (RPA) Assessments conducted to date are reviewed. Current policy and mangement applications of the outsdoor recreation results published in 1989 Assessment are discussed also. The paper concludes with suggestions for the assemssment of outdoor recreation in future RPA Assessements...

  18. Quantitative health impact assessment: current practice and future directions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.L. Veerman (Lennert); J.J.M. Barendregt (Jan); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractSTUDY OBJECTIVE: To assess what methods are used in quantitative health impact assessment (HIA), and to identify areas for future research and development. DESIGN: HIA reports were assessed for (1) methods used to quantify effects of policy on determinants of health

  19. Environmental assessment process needs and future directions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gustafson, P.F.

    1985-01-01

    The environmental assessment process as legislatively mandated by the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) constitutes a double-edged sword as regards the successful management and disposal of radioactive waste. On the one hand, NEPA requires identification and disclosure of the environmental and societal consequences of a given major federal action, consideration of alternatives and/or mitigative measures leading to the same end result, a balancing of costs and benefits, and provides for and encourages public participation in the decision-making process regarding the proposed action(s). On the other hand, public participation supported by judicial decisions, based more upon procedural than substantive issues, may delay, alter, or indeed prohibit a proposed course of action. If the cognizant federal agencies (DOE and NRC in the radioactive waste area) comply with both the spirit and the letter of NEPA a framework for the successful management of radioactive wastes on all types can be developed. If however, these agencies are less than earnest in their NEPA compliance actions or if public opposition is backed by overzealous court action, any radioactive waste management/disposal action (however technically sound) can be hoisted upon a petard from which it may not be freed until well into the next century.

  20. Representing Water Scarcity in Future Agricultural Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Jonathan M.; Lopez, Jose R.; Ruane, Alexander C.; Young, Charles A.; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

    2017-01-01

    Globally, irrigated agriculture is both essential for food production and the largest user of water. A major challenge for hydrologic and agricultural research communities is assessing the sustainability of irrigated croplands under climate variability and change. Simulations of irrigated croplands generally lack key interactions between water supply, water distribution, and agricultural water demand. In this article, we explore the critical interface between water resources and agriculture by motivating, developing, and illustrating the application of an integrated modeling framework to advance simulations of irrigated croplands. We motivate the framework by examining historical dynamics of irrigation water withdrawals in the United States and quantitatively reviewing previous modeling studies of irrigated croplands with a focus on representations of water supply, agricultural water demand, and impacts on crop yields when water demand exceeds water supply. We then describe the integrated modeling framework for simulating irrigated croplands, which links trends and scenarios with water supply, water allocation, and agricultural water demand. Finally, we provide examples of efforts that leverage the framework to improve simulations of irrigated croplands as well as identify opportunities for interventions that increase agricultural productivity, resiliency, and sustainability.

  1. Asian water futures - Multi scenarios, models and criteria assessment -

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Wada, Yoshihide; Flrörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Kahil, Taher; Tramberend, Sylvia; Fischer, Günther; Wiberg, David

    2016-04-01

    A better understanding of the current and future availability of water resources is essential for the implementation of the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Long-term/efficient strategies for coping with current and potential future water-related challenges are urgently required. Although Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were develop for the impact assessment of climate change, very few assessments have yet used the SSPs to assess water resources. Then the IIASA Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS), developed a set of water use scenarios consistent with RCPs and SSPs and applying the latest climate changes scenarios. Here this study focuses on results for Asian countries for the period 2010-2050. We present three conceivable future pathways of Asian water resources, determined by feasible combinations of two RCPs and three SSPs. Such a scenario approach provides valuable insights towards identifying appropriate strategies as gaps between a "scenario world" and reality. In addition, for the assessment of future water resources a multi-criteria analysis is applied. A classification system for countries and watershed that consists of two broad dimensions: (i) economic and institutional adaptive capacity, (ii) hydrological complexity. The latter is composed of several sub-indexes including total renewable water resources per capita, the ratio of water demand to renewable water resource, variability of runoff and dependency ratio to external. Furthermore, this analysis uses a multi-model approach to estimate runoff and discharge using 5 GCMs and 5 global hydrological models (GHMs). Three of these GHMs calculate water use based on a consistent set of scenarios in addition to water availability. As a result, we have projected hot spots of water scarcity in Asia and their spatial and temporal change. For example, in a scenario based on SSP2 and RCP6.0, by 2050, in total 2.1 billion people

  2. Animal biowarfare research: historical perspective and potential future attacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Jung-Yong; Park, Jee-Yong; Cho, Yun Sang; Cho, In-Soo

    2012-12-01

    A biological attack on livestock or poultry could result in the loss of valuable animals, costs related to the containment of outbreaks and the disposal of carcasses, lost trade and other economic effects involving suppliers, transporters, distributors and restaurants; however, it is not possible to secure all livestock, and livestock are much less well guarded than human targets. Thus, the vulnerability of the livestock industry to the introduction of biological agents varies for the following reasons: (i) the majority of lethal and contagious biological agents are environmentally resilient, endemic in foreign countries and harmless to humans, making it easier for terrorists to acquire, handle and deploy these pathogens, (ii) with animals concentrated in fewer production facilities and frequently transported between these facilities, a single pathogen introduction could cause widespread infection and (iii) the extent of human travel around the globe makes it difficult to exclude exotic animal diseases as possible biological agents. Historically, many governments have developed and planned to use biological agents for direct attacks on livestock or poultry. In the past, developed nations have actively developed biological weapons to target animals. The potential spectrum of bioterrorism ranges from isolated acts against individuals by individuals to tactical and strategic military attacks and state-sponsored international terrorism intended to cause mass casualties in animals, humans or both. This review provides an overview of the past development and use of biological weapons and describes potential future attacks. 2012 Blackwell Verlag GmbH

  3. A generic hydroeconomic model to assess future water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice

    2015-04-01

    We developed a generic hydroeconomic model able to confront future water supply and demand on a large scale, taking into account man-made reservoirs. The assessment is done at the scale of river basins, using only globally available data; the methodology can thus be generalized. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources. The available quantity of water at each site is computed using the following information: runoff is taken from the outputs of CNRM climate model (Dubois et al., 2010), reservoirs are located using Aquastat, and the sub-basin flow-accumulation area of each reservoir is determined based on a Digital Elevation Model (HYDRO1k). On the demand side, agricultural and domestic demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. For the agricultural sector, globally available data on irrigated areas and crops are combined in order to determine irrigated crops localization. Then, crops irrigation requirements are computed for the different stages of the growing season using Allen (1998) method with Hargreaves potential evapotranspiration. Irrigation water economic value is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. Potential irrigated and rainfed yields are taken from LPJmL (Blondeau et al., 2007), or from FAOSTAT by making simple assumptions on yield ratios. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The method consists in building three-blocks inverse demand functions where volume limits of the blocks evolve with the level of GDP per capita. The value of water along the demand curve is determined from price-elasticity, price and demand data from the literature, using the point-expansion method, and from water costs data. Then projected demands are confronted to future water availability. Operating rules of the reservoirs and water allocation between demands are based on

  4. Future potential of coal utilisation; Kuenftige Potenziale der Kohlennutzung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wodopia, Franz-Josef [Gesamtverband Steinkohle (GVST), Essen (Germany)

    2009-07-02

    Coal is playing an increasing important role in the worldwide energy mix. It is present in virtually all regions of the world and is the chief energy source in electricity generation not only in most industrialised countries, but in particular also in the developing and emerging countries. The use of coal in the power industry, steel industry and the heat market dominates in the public perception. Its importance for the chemical industry is usually not recognised. In view of the heavy dependence of the industrialised countries, but also to an increasing extent the emerging countries such as China on oil and natural gas imports with increasing prices the question of alternative possibilities of coal utilisation again arises in the meantime. In addition there are climate policy challenges for the use of coal by the approval of a number of international agreements such as the climate convention and the Kyoto protocol. More stringent conditions in the next few years are foreseeable. In Europe these agreements are implemented by introduction of an emission trading system (ETS). In future technologies for separation and storage of carbon dioxide (CCS) in the electricity industry will be introduced in order to meet the demanding climate aims in the period after 2012 on expiry of the Kyoto protocol. The contribution describes the future potential of coal against the background of climate policy requirements, energy policy challenges of secure supply at reasonable prices and more extensive utilisation as a new material. The projects and activities initiated in these relationships are discussed. Special attention is paid to opportunities and risks of CCS technology. (orig.)

  5. Cyto- and genotoxicological assessment and functional characterization of N-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone-acrylic acid-based copolymeric hydrogels with potential for future use in wound healing applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirf, Dominik; Devery, Sinead M [Department of Life and Physical Science, Athlone Institute of Technology (Ireland); Higginbotham, Clement L [Materials Research Institute, Athlone Institute of Technology (Ireland); Rowan, Neil J, E-mail: sdevery@ait.i, E-mail: dkirf@ait.i, E-mail: chigginbotham@ait.i, E-mail: nrowan@ait.i [Department of Nursing and Health Science, Athlone Institute of Technology (Ireland)

    2010-06-01

    This study investigated the toxicity of N-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone-acrylic acid copolymer hydrogels crosslinked with ethylene glycol dimethacrylate or poly(ethylene glycol) dimethacrylate. There is a pressing need to establish the toxicity status of these new copolymers because they may find applications in future wound healing processes. Investigations revealed that the capacity of these hydrogels for swelling permitted the retention of high amounts of water yet still maintaining structural integrity. Reverse phase HPLC analysis suggested that unreacted monomeric base material was efficiently removed post-polymerization by applying an additional purification process. Subsequently, in vitro toxicity testing was performed utilizing direct and indirect contact exposure of the polymers to human keratinocytes (HaCaT) and human hepatoma (HepG2) cells. No indication of significant cell death was observed using the established MTT, neutral red (NR) and fluorescence-based toxicity endpoint indicators. In addition, the alkaline Comet assay showed no genotoxic effects following cell exposure to hydrogel extracts. Investigations at the nucleotide level using the Ames mutagenicity assay demonstrated no evidence of mutagenic activity associated with the polymers. Findings from this study demonstrated that these hydrogels are non-cytotoxic and further work can be carried out to investigate their potential as a wound-healing device that will impact positively on patient health and well-being.

  6. SIMULATION OF NET INFILTRATION FOR MODERN AND POTENTIAL FUTURE CLIMATES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J.A. Heveal

    2000-06-16

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) describes enhancements made to the infiltration model documented in Flint et al. (1996) and documents an analysis using the enhanced model to generate spatial and temporal distributions over a model domain encompassing the Yucca Mountain site, Nevada. Net infiltration is the component of infiltrated precipitation, snowmelt, or surface water run-on that has percolated below the zone of evapotranspiration as defined by the depth of the effective root zone, the average depth below the ground surface (at a given location) from which water is removed by evapotranspiration. The estimates of net infiltration are used for defining the upper boundary condition for the site-scale 3-dimensional Unsaturated-Zone Ground Water Flow and Transport (UZ flow and transport) Model (CRWMS M&O 2000a). The UZ flow and transport model is one of several process models abstracted by the Total System Performance Assessment model to evaluate expected performance of the potential repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, in terms of radionuclide transport (CRWMS M&O 1998). The net-infiltration model is important for assessing potential repository-system performance because output from this model provides the upper boundary condition for the UZ flow and transport model that is used to generate flow fields for evaluating potential radionuclide transport through the unsaturated zone. Estimates of net infiltration are provided as raster-based, 2-dimensional grids of spatially distributed, time-averaged rates for three different climate stages estimated as likely conditions for the next 10,000 years beyond the present. Each climate stage is represented using a lower bound, a mean, and an upper bound climate and corresponding net-infiltration scenario for representing uncertainty in the characterization of daily climate conditions for each climate stage, as well as potential climate variability within each climate stage. The set of nine raster grid maps provide spatially

  7. The Abiotic Depletion Potential: Background, Updates, and Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauran van Oers

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Depletion of abiotic resources is a much disputed impact category in life cycle assessment (LCA. The reason is that the problem can be defined in different ways. Furthermore, within a specified problem definition, many choices can still be made regarding which parameters to include in the characterization model and which data to use. This article gives an overview of the problem definition and the choices that have been made when defining the abiotic depletion potentials (ADPs for a characterization model for abiotic resource depletion in LCA. Updates of the ADPs since 2002 are also briefly discussed. Finally, some possible new developments of the impact category of abiotic resource depletion are suggested, such as redefining the depletion problem as a dilution problem. This means taking the reserves in the environment and the economy into account in the reserve parameter and using leakage from the economy, instead of extraction rate, as a dilution parameter.

  8. Sarcopenia: its assessment, etiology, pathogenesis, consequences and future perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolland, Y; Czerwinski, S; Abellan Van Kan, G; Morley, J E; Cesari, M; Onder, G; Woo, J; Baumgartner, R; Pillard, F; Boirie, Y; Chumlea, W M C; Vellas, B

    2008-01-01

    Sarcopenia is a loss of muscle protein mass and loss of muscle function. It occurs with increasing age, being a major component in the development of frailty. Current knowledge on its assessment, etiology, pathogenesis, consequences and future perspectives are reported in the present review. On-going and future clinical trials on sarcopenia may radically change our preventive and therapeutic approaches of mobility disability in older people.

  9. Professional self-assessment of future health basics teachers as professionally important quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V. Radchenko

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: to theoretically substantiate and experimentally test professional self-assessment of future health basics teachers as professionally important quality. Material: 152 students participated in experiment. Results: assessment of images “I am real”, “I am student” and I am future professional” is rather high in most of students. The strength of these three images was assessed also approximately equally. But portion of average marks in indicator of image strength is much higher than in indicator of mark. Activity of three images differs a little and has significant quantity of average and high marks. Analysis of three main images’ wholeness witnesses that students’ self assessment is rather holistic. With it image “I am future professional” is formed on the base of image “I am student”. Dynamic of images’ self assessment witnesses that increasing of assessment and respect to image “I am future professional” depend on year of studying. Besides, assessment of strength and activity of this image also increases. Conclusions: in the process of studying students are oriented on professional formation as well as on formation of professionally important qualities, revelation of potential for self realization in the future. It was found that responsible attitude to professional functioning, future relations with children depend on self-assessment of formation.

  10. Is Environmental Impact Assessment fulfilling its potential?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2014-01-01

    fuel with CO2-neutral energy sources. A variety of these projects are subject to environmental impact assessment (EIA), which raises the following questions: What role does an impact assessment play? When is the project environmentally friendly? How are climate change-related impacts assessed......One of the topics receiving much attention in recent years is climate change and the potential of its integration in impact assessment, both in terms of achieving mitigation and adaptation. Renewable energy projects are part of the efforts to mitigate climate change, replacing the use of fossil...... adaptation is absent. Also, the results show an emphasis on positive impacts in the reports, and in a few cases discussions of enhancements. Identification and assessment of negative climate change impacts are less apparent. This leads to a discussion of the results in the light of the purpose of EIA....

  11. Aquifer characterization and groundwater potential assessment of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... integrated electrical resistivity and borehole lithologic logs with a view to characterizing the aquifer and assessing the groundwater potential. One hundred and four Vertical Electrical Soundings (VES) were quantitatively interpreted using the partial curve matching technique and computer assisted 1-D forward modeling.

  12. Future and potential spending on health 2015-40

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dieleman, Joseph L.; Campbell, Madeline; Chapin, Abigail; Eldrenkamp, Erika; Fan, Victoria Y.; Haakenstad, Annie; Kates, Jennifer; Li, Zhiyin; Matyasz, Taylor; Micah, Angela; Reynolds, Alex; Sadat, Nafis; Schneider, Matthew T.; Sorensen, Reed; Abbas, Kaja M.; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir; Alam, Khurshid; Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza; Alkerwi, A.; Amini, Erfan; Ammar, Walid; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.; Atey, Tesfay Mehari; Avila-Burgos, Leticia; Awasthi, Ashish; Barac, Aleksandra; Berheto, Tezera Moshago; Beyene, Addisu Shunu; Beyene, Tariku Jibat; Birungi, Charles; Bizuayehu, Habtamu Mellie; Breitborde, Nicholas J.K.; Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero; Castro, Ruben Estanislao; Catalá-López, Ferran; Dalal, Koustuv; Dandona, Lalit; Dharmaratne, Rakhi Dandona Samath D.; Dubey, Manisha; Faro, Andé; Feigl, Andrea B.; Fischer, Florian; Anderson Fitchett, Joseph R.; Foigt, Nataliya; Giref, Ababi Zergaw; Gupta, Rahul; Hamidi, Samer; Harb, Hilda L.; Hay, Simon I.; Hendrie, Delia; Horino, Masako; Jürisson, Mikk; Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B.; Javanbakht, Mehdi; John, Denny; Jonas, Jost B.; Karimi, Seyed M.; Khang, Young Ho; Khubchandani, Jagdish; Kim, Yun Jin; Kinge, Jonas M.; Krohn, Kristopher J.; Kumar, G.A.; Leung, Ricky; Magdy Abd El Razek, Hassan; Magdy Abd El Razek, Mohammed; Majeed, Azeem; Malekzadeh, Reza; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Meretoja, Atte; Miller, Ted R.; Mirrakhimov, Erkin M.; Mohammed, Shafiu; Molla, Gedefaw; Nangia, Vinay; Olgiati, Stefano; Owolabi, Mayowa O.; Patel, Tejas; Paternina Caicedo, Angel J.; Pereira, David M.; Perelman, Julian; Polinder, Suzanne; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rai, Rajesh Kumar; Ram, Usha; Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal; Roba, Hirbo Shore; Savic, Miloje; Sepanlou, Sadaf G.; Ao, Te Braden J.; Tesema, Azeb Gebresilassie; Thomson, Alan J.; Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan; Topor-Madry, Roman; Undurraga, Eduardo A.; Vargas, Veronica; Vasankari, Tommi; Violante, Francesco S.; Wijeratne, Tissa; Xu, Gelin; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Younis, Mustafa Z.; Yu, Chuanhua; Zaidi, Zoubida; Sayed Zaki, El Maysaa; Murray, Christopher J.L.

    2017-01-01

    Background: The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future

  13. Functional Assessment and Challenging Behaviors: Some Future Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hastings, Richard P.; Brown, Tony

    2000-01-01

    This article discusses the successes of behavior analysts in affecting challenging behaviors in persons with developmental disabilities. Three future issues are then addressed: the development of challenging behaviors, the role of rule-governance in challenging behavior, and the behavior of persons who directly apply functional assessment and…

  14. Strengthening environmental foresight: potential contributions of futures research

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Bengston; George H. Kubik; Peter C. Bishop

    2012-01-01

    The need for environmental foresight has increased in recent decades as the pace of change has accelerated and the frequency of surprise has increased. Successfully dealing with the growing impacts of change on social-ecological systems depends on our ability to anticipate change. But traditional scientific tools are blunt instruments for studying a future that does...

  15. Future of computing technology in physics - the potentials and pitfalls

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brenner, A.E.

    1984-02-01

    The impact of the developments of modern digital computers is discussed, especially with respect to physics research in the future. The effects of large data processing capability and increasing rates at which data can be acquired and processed are considered. (GHT)

  16. Systems assessment of future electricity generation options for Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. Cottrell; J. Nunn; A. Urfer; L. Wibberley; P. Scaire; D. Palfreyman [BHP Billiton (Australia)

    2003-11-15

    This study was carried out to assess future energy options (focus on electricity generation) in an Australian context, with the premise that step reductions in greenhouse gas emissions could and should occur. It integrates life cycle analysis (LCA) and technology modelling tools for the assessment of several coal based power generation technologies, both now and into the future (to 2030), focussing on the unique Australian context. The technology combinations evaluated include: Incremental developments in pf and gas; Alternative technologies - integrated gasification combined cycle gas turbine (IGCC); underground coal gasification (UCG); New technologies - direct fired coal combined cycle (DFC-CC), oxygen-pf with CO{sub 2} capture, IGCC with CO{sub 2} capture; and Wind. It includes a range of technical, economic and environmental issues and solutions, as currently understood. The goal has been to give a clear concept of the principles used in our approach to systems assessment. 38 figs., 26 tabs.

  17. Advanced electronic displays and their potential in future transport aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, J. J.

    1981-01-01

    It is pointed out that electronic displays represent one of the keys to continued integration and improvement of the effectiveness of avionic systems in future transport aircraft. An employment of modern electronic display media and generation has become vital in connection with the increases in modes and functions of modern aircraft. Requirements for electronic systems of future transports are examined, and a description is provided of the tools which are available for cockpit integration, taking into account trends in information processing and presentation, trends in integrated display devices, and trends concerning input/output devices. Developments related to display media, display generation, and I/O devices are considered, giving attention to a comparison of CRT and flat-panel display technology, advanced HUD technology and multifunction controls. Integrated display formats are discussed along with integrated systems and cockpit configurations.

  18. Antiretroviral medication use among injection drug users: two potential futures

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wood, E; Schechter, M T; Tyndall, M W; Montaner, J S; O'Shaughnessy, M V; Hogg, R S

    2000-01-01

    To model the potential impact of HIV infection rates and the use of antiretroviral medication on life expectancy and mortality in the Downtown Eastside of Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, from 1999 to 2006...

  19. High efficiency USC power plant - present status and future potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blum, R. [Faelleskemikerne I/S Fynsvaerket (Denmark); Hald, J. [Elsam/Elkraft/TU Denmark (Denmark)

    1998-12-31

    Increasing demand for energy production with low impact on the environment and minimised fuel consumption can be met with high efficient coal fired power plants with advanced steam parameters. An important key to this improvement is the development of high temperature materials with optimised mechanical strength. Based on the results of more than ten years of development a coal fired power plant with an efficiency above 50 % can now be realised. Future developments focus on materials which enable an efficiency of 52-55 %. (orig.) 25 refs.

  20. Sustainability and Urban Dynamics: Assessing Future Impacts on Ecosystem Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Varkki Pallathucheril

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable management of a region’s critical and valued ecosystem resources requires an understanding about how these resource systems might function into the future. In urbanized areas, this requires the ability to frame the role of resources within the context of urban dynamics and the implications of policy and investment choices. In this paper we describe a three-step approach to assessing the impact of future urban development on ecosystem services: 1 characterize key ecosystem resources and services, 2 forecast future land-use changes, and 3 assess how future land-use changes will affect ecosystem services. Each of these steps can be carried out with different levels of sophistication and detail. All steps involve a combination of science and process: the science provides information that is deliberated upon by stakeholders in public forums before conclusions are drawn. We then illustrate the approach by describing how it was used in two regions in the state of Illinois in the United States. In the first instance, an early application of this approach, a simple overlay was used to identify development pressure on an environmentally sensitive river bluff; this finding altered thinking about public policy choices. In the second instance, the more fine-grained analysis was conducted for several ecosystem services.

  1. Back to the Future: Personality and Assessment and Personality Development

    OpenAIRE

    Roberts, Brent W.

    2009-01-01

    In this essay I consider the future of personality development in light of the past effects of Personality and Assessment on the field of personality in general and personality development in particular. The essay is organized around 1) the effect of Mischel's book on the foundational theories informing personality development; 2) definitions of personality traits; 3) an alternative model of personality traits, described as the sociogenomic model of personality traits, that can bridge the div...

  2. Assessing the proarrhythmic potential of drugs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Morten Bækgaard; Matz, Jørgen; Volders, Paul G A

    2006-01-01

    Torsades de pointes (TdP) is a potentially lethal cardiac arrhythmia that can occur as an unwanted adverse effect of various pharmacological therapies. Before a drug is approved for marketing, its effects on cardiac repolarisation are examined clinically and experimentally. This paper expresses...... the opinion that effects on repolarisation duration cannot directly be translated to risk of proarrhythmia. Current safety assessments of drugs only involve repolarisation assays, however the proarrhythmic profile can only be determined in the predisposed model. The availability of these proarrhythmic animal...... surrogate parameters possessing predictive power of TdP arrhythmia are reviewed. As these parameters are not developed to finalisation, any meaningful study of the proarrhythmic potential of a new drug will include evaluation in an integrated model of TdP arrhythmia....

  3. Potential remobilization of belowground permafrost carbon under future global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    P. Kuhry; E. Dorrepaal; G. Hugelius; E.A.G. Schuur; C. Tarnocai

    2010-01-01

    Research on permafrost carbon has dramatically increased in the past few years. A new estimate of 1672 Pg C of belowground organic carbon in the northern circumpolar permafrost region more than doubles the previous value and highlights the potential role of permafrost carbon in the Earth System. Uncertainties in this new estimate remain due to relatively few available...

  4. Potential diagnostic applications of biosensors: current and future directions

    OpenAIRE

    Song, Shiping; Xu, Hui; Fan, Chunhai

    2006-01-01

    This review describes recent advances in biosensors of potential clinical applications. Biosensors are becoming increasingly important and practical tools in pathogen detection, molecular diagnostics, environmental monitoring, food safety control as well as in homeland defense. Electrochemical biosensors are particularly promising toward these goals arising due to several combined advantages including low-cost, operation convenience, and miniaturized devices. We review the clinical applicatio...

  5. GIS based analysis of future district heating potential in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steffen; Möller, Bernd

    2013-01-01

    The physical placement of buildings is important when determining the potential for DH (district heating). Good locations for DH are mainly determined by having both a large heat demand within a certain area and having access to local heat resources. In recent years, the locations of buildings...

  6. Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendricks, Robert C.; Daggett, David L.; Anast, Peter; Lowery, Nathan

    2011-01-01

    In recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.

  7. Untapped potential of health impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, Mirko S; Krieger, Gary R; Divall, Mark J; Cissé, Guéladio; Wielga, Mark; Singer, Burton H; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

    2013-04-01

    The World Health Organization has promoted health impact assessment (HIA) for over 20 years. At the 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20), HIA was discussed as a critical method for linking health to "green economy" and "institutional framework" strategies for sustainable development. In countries having a high human development index (HDI), HIA has been added to the overall assessment suite that typically includes potential environmental and social impacts, but it is rarely required as part of the environmental and social impact assessment for large development projects. When they are performed, project-driven HIAs are governed by a combination of project proponent and multilateral lender performance standards rather than host country requirements. Not surprisingly, in low-HDI countries HIA is missing from the programme and policy arena in the absence of an external project driver. Major drivers of global change (e.g. population growth and urbanization, growing pressure on natural resources and climate change) inordinately affect low- and medium-HDI countries; however, in such countries HIA is conspicuously absent. If the cloak of HIA invisibility is to be removed, it must be shown that HIA is useful and beneficial and, hence, an essential component of the 21st century's sustainable development agenda. We analyse where and how HIA can become fully integrated into the impact assessment suite and argue that the impact of HIA must not remain obscure.

  8. Communicating uncertainties in assessments of future sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wikman-Svahn, P.

    2013-12-01

    How uncertainty should be managed and communicated in policy-relevant scientific assessments is directly connected to the role of science and the responsibility of scientists. These fundamentally philosophical issues influence how scientific assessments are made and how scientific findings are communicated to policymakers. It is therefore of high importance to discuss implicit assumptions and value judgments that are made in policy-relevant scientific assessments. The present paper examines these issues for the case of scientific assessments of future sea level rise. The magnitude of future sea level rise is very uncertain, mainly due to poor scientific understanding of all physical mechanisms affecting the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, which together hold enough land-based ice to raise sea levels more than 60 meters if completely melted. There has been much confusion from policymakers on how different assessments of future sea levels should be interpreted. Much of this confusion is probably due to how uncertainties are characterized and communicated in these assessments. The present paper draws on the recent philosophical debate on the so-called "value-free ideal of science" - the view that science should not be based on social and ethical values. Issues related to how uncertainty is handled in scientific assessments are central to this debate. This literature has much focused on how uncertainty in data, parameters or models implies that choices have to be made, which can have social consequences. However, less emphasis has been on how uncertainty is characterized when communicating the findings of a study, which is the focus of the present paper. The paper argues that there is a tension between on the one hand the value-free ideal of science and on the other hand usefulness for practical applications in society. This means that even if the value-free ideal could be upheld in theory, by carefully constructing and hedging statements characterizing

  9. Managing employer brand attributes to attract potential future leaders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonaiuto, Marino; De Dominicis, Stefano; Illia, Laura

    2013-01-01

    Attracting and retaining professionals with the potential to become leaders is crucial for ensuring the success of companies. The purpose of this study is to contribute to the field of employer branding (EB) by identifying which employer brand attributes are perceived as particularly relevant...... for attracting talented people. Using three empirical studies, we identify brand attributes that have not been very widely diffused among real companies (versus ideal) but are relevant for attracting young professionals with the potential to become leaders. We also identify which brand attributes already present...... among real employees allow for attracting talented individuals versus the non-talented ones. The three studies are conducted with a sample of 493, 729 and 1605 recent graduates from Italian universities, respectively. The results indicate that the most idealized brand attributes are related...

  10. Sulfolobus – A Potential Key Organism in Future Biotechnology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julian Quehenberger

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Extremophilic organisms represent a potentially valuable resource for the development of novel bioprocesses. They can act as a source for stable enzymes and unique biomaterials. Extremophiles are capable of carrying out microbial processes and biotransformations under extremely hostile conditions. Extreme thermoacidophilic members of the well-characterized genus Sulfolobus are outstanding in their ability to thrive at both high temperatures and low pH. This review gives an overview of the biological system Sulfolobus including its central carbon metabolism and the development of tools for its genetic manipulation. We highlight findings of commercial relevance and focus on potential industrial applications. Finally, the current state of bioreactor cultivations is summarized and we discuss the use of Sulfolobus species in biorefinery applications.

  11. Adaptive coded aperture imaging: progress and potential future applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottesman, Stephen R.; Isser, Abraham; Gigioli, George W., Jr.

    2011-09-01

    Interest in Adaptive Coded Aperture Imaging (ACAI) continues to grow as the optical and systems engineering community becomes increasingly aware of ACAI's potential benefits in the design and performance of both imaging and non-imaging systems , such as good angular resolution (IFOV), wide distortion-free field of view (FOV), excellent image quality, and light weight construct. In this presentation we first review the accomplishments made over the past five years, then expand on previously published work to show how replacement of conventional imaging optics with coded apertures can lead to a reduction in system size and weight. We also present a trade space analysis of key design parameters of coded apertures and review potential applications as replacement for traditional imaging optics. Results will be presented, based on last year's work of our investigation into the trade space of IFOV, resolution, effective focal length, and wavelength of incident radiation for coded aperture architectures. Finally we discuss the potential application of coded apertures for replacing objective lenses of night vision goggles (NVGs).

  12. Future changes in climatic water balance determine potential for transformational shifts in Australian fire regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boer, Matthias M.; Bowman, David M. J. S.; Murphy, Brett P.; Cary, Geoffrey J.; Cochrane, Mark A.; Fensham, Roderick J.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Price, Owen F.; Resco De Dios, Víctor; Williams, Richard J.; Bradstock, Ross A.

    2016-06-01

    Most studies of climate change effects on fire regimes assume a gradual reorganization of pyrogeographic patterns and have not considered the potential for transformational changes in the climate-vegetation-fire relationships underlying continental-scale fire regimes. Here, we model current fire activity levels in Australia as a function of mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) and potential evapotranspiration (E 0), as proxies for fuel productivity and fuel drying potential. We distinguish two domains in E,{E}0 space according to the dominant constraint on fire activity being either fuel productivity (PL-type fire) or fuel dryness (DL-type fire) and show that the affinity to these domains is related to fuel type. We propose to assess the potential for transformational shifts in fire type from the difference in the affinity to either domain under a baseline climate and projected future climate. Under the projected climate changes potential for a transformational shift from DL- to PL-type fire was predicted for mesic savanna woodland in the north and for eucalypt forests in coastal areas of the south-west and along the Continental Divide in the south-east of the continent. Potential for a shift from PL- to DL-type fire was predicted for a narrow zone of eucalypt savanna woodland in the north-east.

  13. THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF TEHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT ON FUTURE JOBS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ŞTEFAN COSMIN-ALEXANDRU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Technological developments in the last decades have reached unbelievable levels, what was once the domain of science fiction movies is now a reality, and this developments have left few areas of human life unchanged. In this paper we aim to explore the changes that technology brought to the way people work and, especially to the way people will work. While we acknowledge that any prediction about the future is almost always proved wrong from the get go, we think that the importance of the subject warrants the risk. The paper draws its routes from some of the most influential theories about how technology will impact the way people work and is main objective is to spark a conversation about the merits of lack thereof that they contain. It is by no means an extensive work, but rather the beginning of a research focus that will, hopefully bring new insights in the above mentioned field. For the sake of convenience we have grouped the predictions in three categories: “Business as usual”, “Lateral developments” and “All bets are off” based on how profound the change would be. Each of this levels offers different benefits, as well as different challenges, our hope is that throw a process of thorough consideration solutions can be generated to maximize the former while minimizing the latter.

  14. Hybrid vehicle potential assessment. Volume 2. Mission analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Surber, F.T.; Deshpande, G.K.

    1979-09-30

    Seven vehicle missions were selected and defined for use in assessing hybrid vehicle concepts and are summarized. These missions were selected to provide general coverage of current and future vehicle uses and classes. Their travel pattern definitions are based primarily on analysis of the 1969 National Personal Transportation Study travel data. Performance requirements are based on current highway designs and speed limits and the results of studies of performance requirements for safe and non-interfering operation in today's traffic environment. The mission definitions are independent of vehicle technology so even though they were selected and defined for use in assessing hybrid vehicles, they could also be used in assessing the potential of other vehicle technologies such as electric vehicles, turbo-charging, Stirling engines, etc.

  15. THE ASSESSMENT OF CYBERBULLYING: THE PRESENT SITUATION AND FUTURE CHALLENGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Lucas-Molina

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the last decade there has been a significant increase in the interest of the educational and scientific community on cyberbullying, a new form of peer abuse and intimidation. Despite the widespread proliferation of studies and assessment tools on the phenomenon, there are still major conceptual and methodological gaps. This paper offers a comprehensive and updated review of the results of research on the definition of the construct, its prevalence and its impact on the people involved. Finally, it focuses specifically on the assessment of the construct and provides a brief review of the general and psychometric characteristics of the instruments used in some of the most relevant national and international studies conducted on the subject. This work places special emphasis on the present and future challenges and concludes with a number of general recommendations intended to guide the correct selection and/or construction of assessment instruments in this field of study.

  16. Residential energy efficiency: Progress since 1973 and future potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenfeld, Arthur H.

    1985-11-01

    Today's 85 million U.S. homes use 100 billion of fuel and electricity (1150/home). If their energy intensity (resource energy/ft2) were still frozen at 1973 levels, they would use 18% more. With well-insulated houses, need for space heat is vanishing. Superinsulated Saskatchewan homes spend annually only 270 for space heat, 150 for water heat, and 400 for appliances, yet they cost only 2000±1000 more than conventional new homes. The concept of Cost of Conserved Energy (CCE) is used to rank conservation technologies for existing and new homes and appliances, and to develop supply curves of conserved energy and a least cost scenario. Calculations are calibrated with the BECA and other data bases. By limiting investments in efficiency to those whose CCE is less than current fuel and electricity prices, the potential residential plus commercial energy use in 2000 AD drops to half of that estimated by DOE, and the number of power plants needed drops by 200. For the whole buildings sector, potential savings by 2000 are 8 Mbod (worth 50B/year), at an average CCE of 10/barrel.

  17. Diagnostic potential of saliva: current state and future applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfaffe, Tina; Cooper-White, Justin; Beyerlein, Peter; Kostner, Karam; Punyadeera, Chamindie

    2011-05-01

    Over the past 10 years, the use of saliva as a diagnostic fluid has gained attention and has become a translational research success story. Some of the current nanotechnologies have been demonstrated to have the analytical sensitivity required for the use of saliva as a diagnostic medium to detect and predict disease progression. However, these technologies have not yet been integrated into current clinical practice and work flow. As a diagnostic fluid, saliva offers advantages over serum because it can be collected noninvasively by individuals with modest training, and it offers a cost-effective approach for the screening of large populations. Gland-specific saliva can also be used for diagnosis of pathology specific to one of the major salivary glands. There is minimal risk of contracting infections during saliva collection, and saliva can be used in clinically challenging situations, such as obtaining samples from children or handicapped or anxious patients, in whom blood sampling could be a difficult act to perform. In this review we highlight the production of and secretion of saliva, the salivary proteome, transportation of biomolecules from blood capillaries to salivary glands, and the diagnostic potential of saliva for use in detection of cardiovascular disease and oral and breast cancers. We also highlight the barriers to application of saliva testing and its advancement in clinical settings. Saliva has the potential to become a first-line diagnostic sample of choice owing to the advancements in detection technologies coupled with combinations of biomolecules with clinical relevance.

  18. California Shoreline Sand Retention: Existing Structure Performance and Future Potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinsman, N. E.; Griggs, G. B.

    2008-12-01

    Amidst rising sea level, climate change and expanding coastal populations, sandy beaches are frequently exposed to erosional processes. Effective sea level rise will lead to recreational beach loss as a result of coastal inundation. Beach nourishment is growing in popularity as a mitigation approach to meet the increasing need to protect coastal resources. The practice of beach nourishment along high energy shorelines, such as in California, is often improved by the construction of sediment retention structures (groins) to enhance project lifespans. However, our current ability to design effective littoral barriers is extremely limited. An underutilized and cost-effective resource for critically analyzing engineered retention structure performance is the record of existing structures within California. The impacts of 205 structures along California's 1700 km shoreline have been systematically explored though measurements collected from aerial imagery and historic shoreline positions. The findings of this study suggest that approximately 30 million m3 of sand and 18% of California's total exposed sandy beach area is presently retained in fillet and salient beaches associated with man-made structures such as groins, breakwaters, piers and jetties. Preliminary results suggest statistically significant correlations between structure effectiveness and key characteristics such as orientation, littoral cell position and construction materials. The central product of this study is a complete and robust GIS catalog of retention structures along California's coastline. A detailed analysis of historic structure performance combined with a systematically measured record of structure characteristics for the entire state results in a useful product to help coastal planners use the lessons of the past to plan future beach management.

  19. Modeling the yield potential of dryland canola under current and future climates in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    George, N.; Kaffka, S.; Beeck, C.; Bucaram, S.; Zhang, J.

    2012-12-01

    Models predict that the climate of California will become hotter, drier and more variable under future climate change scenarios. This will lead to both increased irrigation demand and reduced irrigation water availability. In addition, it is predicted that most common Californian crops will suffer a concomitant decline in productivity. To remain productive and economically viable, future agricultural systems will need to have greater water use efficiency, tolerance of high temperatures, and tolerance of more erratic temperature and rainfall patterns. Canola (Brassica napus) is the third most important oilseed globally, supporting large and well-established agricultural industries in Canada, Europe and Australia. It is an agronomically useful and economically valuable crop, with multiple end markets, that can be grown in California as a dryland winter rotation with little to no irrigation demand. This gives canola great potential as a new crop for Californian farmers both now and as the climate changes. Given practical and financial limitations it is not always possible to immediately or widely evaluate a crop in a new region. Crop production models are therefore valuable tools for assessing the potential of new crops, better targeting further field research, and refining research questions. APSIM is a modular modeling framework developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia, it combines biophysical and management modules to simulate cropping systems. This study was undertaken to examine the yield potential of Australian canola varieties having different water requirements and maturity classes in California using APSIM. The objective of the work was to identify the agricultural regions of California most ideally suited to the production of Australian cultivars of canola and to simulate the production of canola in these regions to estimate yield-potential. This will establish whether the introduction and in-field evaluation of better

  20. The common cold: potential for future prevention or cure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Passioti, Maria; Maggina, Paraskevi; Megremis, Spyridon; Papadopoulos, Nikolaos G

    2014-02-01

    The common cold is the most frequent, although generally mild, human disease. Human Rhinoviruses are the prevalent causative agents, but other viruses are also implicated. Being so common, viral colds, have significant implications on public health and quality of life, but may also be life-threatening for vulnerable groups of patients. Specific diagnosis and treatment of the common cold still remain unmet needs. Molecular diagnostic techniques allow specific detection of known pathogens as well as the identification of newly emerging viruses. Although a number of medications or natural treatments have been shown to have some effect, either on the number or on the severity of common colds, no single agent is considerably effective. Virus-specific management remains in most cases a challenging potential as many factors have to be taken into account, including the diversity of the viral genomes, the heterogeneity of affected individuals, as well as the complexity of this long standing host-virus relationship.

  1. Pharmacotherapy for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: current landscape and future potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ganesh Raghu

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Over the past two and a half decades, many clinical trials have been designed to determine the safety and efficacy of pharmacotherapy for patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF. However, so far, only two drugs (pirfenidone and nintedanib have been found to have an impact on disease progression as defined by reducing the rate of decline in forced vital capacity over a year among IPF patients with mild to moderate impairment in lung function. These two drugs have been approved for treatment of IPF by regulatory agencies and are currently in clinical use worldwide. This article summarises the current landscape of pharmacotherapy for IPF and highlights the prospects and potential of new therapies that are currently being pursued in clinical trials.

  2. Contemporary and potential future molecular diagnosis of melanoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandolfi, G; Dallaglio, K; Longo, C; Moscarella, E; Lallas, A; Alfano, R; Argenziano, G; Ciarrocchi, A

    2016-09-01

    The increasing incidence of cutaneous melanoma and the still limited effective treatments available for this disease represent a major health problem and a great challenge for research. The raise of the "omics" era and the development of new techniques to explore phenotypic heterogeneity are helping to decipher the mechanisms at the basis of melanoma heterogeneity. We reviewed the most recent publications about the biology of cutaneous melanoma, to provide an overview of the most recent insights into the complexity of this tumor and their potential impact in the clinical settings. Expert commentary: Starting from the first attempts to provide a molecular classification of melanoma, it has been evident that this tumor represents a widely heterogeneous disease. This complexity and the multivariate nature of melanoma represent a major obstacle in developing the best management strategies for patients.

  3. Some suggested future directions of quantitative resource assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, D.A.

    2001-01-01

    Future quantitative assessments will be expected to estimate quantities, values, and locations of undiscovered mineral resources in a form that conveys both economic viability and uncertainty associated with the resources. Historically, declining metal prices point to the need for larger deposits over time. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the greatest opportunity for reducing uncertainty in assessments lies in lowering uncertainty associated with tonnage estimates. Of all errors possible in assessments, those affecting tonnage estimates are by far the most important. Selecting the correct deposit model is the most important way of controlling errors because the dominance of tonnage-deposit models are the best known predictor of tonnage. Much of the surface is covered with apparently barren rocks and sediments in many large regions. Because many exposed mineral deposits are believed to have been found, a prime concern is the presence of possible mineralized rock under cover. Assessments of areas with resources under cover must rely on extrapolation from surrounding areas, new geologic maps of rocks under cover, or analogy with other well-explored areas that can be considered training tracts. Cover has a profound effect on uncertainty and on methods and procedures of assessments because geology is seldom known and geophysical methods typically have attenuated responses. Many earlier assessment methods were based on relationships of geochemical and geophysical variables to deposits learned from deposits exposed on the surface-these will need to be relearned based on covered deposits. Mineral-deposit models are important in quantitative resource assessments for two reasons: (1) grades and tonnages of most deposit types are significantly different, and (2) deposit types are present in different geologic settings that can be identified from geologic maps. Mineral-deposit models are the keystone in combining the diverse geoscience information on geology, mineral

  4. Issues in contemporary and potential future molecular diagnostics for dengue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekaran, Shamala Devi; Soe, Hui Jen

    2017-03-01

    Dengue has been the most common arbovirus infection worldwide with 2.5 billion people living in over 100 endemic tropical and subtropical regions. Due to the high number of asymptomatic cases and the signs and symptoms being rather unspecific, dengue cases are often under-reported and might influence dengue surveillance programs. Therefore, a rapid, easy to use, inexpensive, and highly sensitive and specific diagnostic tool is essential for early and accurate diagnosis to ease the clinical management of patients as well as for the development of new interventions. Areas covered: This report discusses the contemporary dengue diagnostic tool, mainly from the aspect of molecular diagnosis where an overview of several nuclei acid amplification tests has been included. Potential molecular diagnostic tools such as biosensor and microarray are also discussed in this report. Expert commentary: Rapidness and accuracy in terms of sensitivity and specificity is imperative in dengue diagnosis for both clinical management and surveillance of dengue to ensure early treatment and corrective control measures can be carried out. In the next five years it is expected that there will be newer tests developed using not only the lateral flow techniques but more specifically biosensors and nanotechnology. These new technologies will have to be validated with the appropriate number and category of samples and to address the issue of cross-reactivity.

  5. Environmental Assessment of Possible Future Waste Management Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yevgeniya Arushanyan

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Waste management has developed in many countries and will continue to do so. Changes towards increased recovery of resources in order to meet climate targets and for society to transition to a circular economy are important driving forces. Scenarios are important tools for planning and assessing possible future developments and policies. This paper presents a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA model for environmental assessments of scenarios and waste management policy instruments. It is unique by including almost all waste flows in a country and also allow for including waste prevention. The results show that the environmental impacts from future waste management scenarios in Sweden can differ a lot. Waste management will continue to contribute with environmental benefits, but less so in the more sustainable future scenarios, since the surrounding energy and transportation systems will be less polluting and also because less waste will be produced. Valuation results indicate that climate change, human toxicity and resource depletion are the most important environmental impact categories for the Swedish waste management system. Emissions of fossil CO2 from waste incineration will continue to be a major source of environmental impacts in these scenarios. The model is used for analyzing environmental impacts of several policy instruments including weight based collection fee, incineration tax, a resource tax and inclusion of waste in a green electricity certification system. The effect of the studied policy instruments in isolation are in most cases limited, suggesting that stronger policy instruments as well as combinations are necessary to reach policy goals as set out in for example the EU action plan on circular economy.

  6. Bacillus As Potential Probiotics: Status, Concerns, and Future Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fouad M. F. Elshaghabee

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Spore-forming bacilli are being explored for the production and preservation of food for many centuries. The inherent ability of production of large number of secretory proteins, enzymes, antimicrobial compounds, vitamins, and carotenoids specifies the importance of bacilli in food chain. Additionally, Bacillus spp. are gaining interest in human health related functional food research coupled with their enhanced tolerance and survivability under hostile environment of gastrointestinal tract. Besides, bacilli are more stable during processing and storage of food and pharmaceutical preparations, making them more suitable candidate for health promoting formulations. Further, Bacillus strains also possess biotherapeutic potential which is connected with their ability to interact with the internal milieu of the host by producing variety of antimicrobial peptides and small extracellular effector molecules. Nonetheless, with proposed scientific evidences, commercial probiotic supplements, and functional foods comprising of Bacillus spp. had not gained much credential in general population, since the debate over probiotic vs pathogen tag of Bacillus in the research and production terrains is confusing consumers. Hence, it’s important to clearly understand the phenotypic and genotypic characteristics of selective beneficial Bacillus spp. and their substantiation with those having GRAS status, to reach a consensus over the same. This review highlights the probiotic candidature of spore forming Bacillus spp. and presents an overview of the proposed health benefits, including application in food and pharmaceutical industry. Moreover, the growing need to evaluate the safety of individual Bacillus strains as well as species on a case by case basis and necessity of more profound analysis for the selection and identification of Bacillus probiotic candidates are also taken into consideration.

  7. Bacillus As Potential Probiotics: Status, Concerns, and Future Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elshaghabee, Fouad M. F.; Rokana, Namita; Gulhane, Rohini D.; Sharma, Chetan; Panwar, Harsh

    2017-01-01

    Spore-forming bacilli are being explored for the production and preservation of food for many centuries. The inherent ability of production of large number of secretory proteins, enzymes, antimicrobial compounds, vitamins, and carotenoids specifies the importance of bacilli in food chain. Additionally, Bacillus spp. are gaining interest in human health related functional food research coupled with their enhanced tolerance and survivability under hostile environment of gastrointestinal tract. Besides, bacilli are more stable during processing and storage of food and pharmaceutical preparations, making them more suitable candidate for health promoting formulations. Further, Bacillus strains also possess biotherapeutic potential which is connected with their ability to interact with the internal milieu of the host by producing variety of antimicrobial peptides and small extracellular effector molecules. Nonetheless, with proposed scientific evidences, commercial probiotic supplements, and functional foods comprising of Bacillus spp. had not gained much credential in general population, since the debate over probiotic vs pathogen tag of Bacillus in the research and production terrains is confusing consumers. Hence, it’s important to clearly understand the phenotypic and genotypic characteristics of selective beneficial Bacillus spp. and their substantiation with those having GRAS status, to reach a consensus over the same. This review highlights the probiotic candidature of spore forming Bacillus spp. and presents an overview of the proposed health benefits, including application in food and pharmaceutical industry. Moreover, the growing need to evaluate the safety of individual Bacillus strains as well as species on a case by case basis and necessity of more profound analysis for the selection and identification of Bacillus probiotic candidates are also taken into consideration. PMID:28848511

  8. Climate-Compatible Air Transport System—Climate Impact Mitigation Potential for Actual and Future Aircraft

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katrin Dahlmann

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Aviation guarantees mobility, but its emissions also contribute considerably to climate change. Therefore, climate impact mitigation strategies have to be developed based on comprehensive assessments of the different impacting factors. We quantify the climate impact mitigation potential and related costs resulting from changes in aircraft operations and design using a multi-disciplinary model workflow. We first analyze the climate impact mitigation potential and cash operating cost changes of altered cruise altitudes and speeds for all flights globally operated by the Airbus A330-200 fleet in the year 2006. We find that this globally can lead to a 42% reduction in temperature response at a 10% cash operating cost increase. Based on this analysis, new design criteria are derived for future aircraft that are optimized for cruise conditions with reduced climate impact. The newly-optimized aircraft is re-assessed with the developed model workflow. We obtain additional climate mitigation potential with small to moderate cash operating cost changes due to the aircraft design changes of, e.g., a 32% and 54% temperature response reduction for a 0% and 10% cash operating cost increase. Hence, replacing the entire A330-200 fleet by this redesigned aircraft ( M a c r = 0.72 and initial cruise altitude (ICA = 8000 m could reduce the climate impact by 32% without an increase of cash operating cost.

  9. Regional landslide hazard assessment in a deep uncertain future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Susana; Holcombe, Liz; Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

    2017-04-01

    Landslides have many negative economic and societal impacts, including the potential for significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. These risks are likely to be exacerbated in the future by a combination of climatic and socio-economic factors. Climate change, for example, is expected to increase the occurrence of rainfall-triggered landslides, because a warmer atmosphere tends to produce more high intensity rainfall events. Prediction of future changes in rainfall, however, is subject to high levels of uncertainty, making it challenging for decision-makers to identify the areas and populations that are most vulnerable to landslide hazards. In this study, we demonstrate how a physically-based model - the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model (CHASM) - can be used together with Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to explore the underlying factors controlling the spatial distribution of landslide risks across a regional landscape, while also accounting for deep uncertainty around future rainfall conditions. We demonstrate how GSA can used to analyse CHASM which in turn represents the spatial variability of hillslope characteristics in the study region, while accounting for other uncertainties. Results are presented in the form of landslide hazard maps, utilising high-resolution digital elevation datasets for a case study in St Lucia in the Caribbean. Our findings about spatial landslide hazard drivers have important implications for data collection approaches and for long-term decision-making about land management practices.

  10. Analysis of present and future potential compound flooding risk along the European coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bevacqua, Emanuele; Maraun, Douglas; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Vousdoukas, Michalis I.; Widmann, Martin; Manning, Colin; Vrac, Mathieu

    2017-04-01

    The coastal zone is the natural border between the sea and the mainland, and it is constantly under the influence of marine and land-based natural and human-induced pressure. Compound floods are extreme events occurring in coastal areas where the interaction of joint high sea level and large amount of precipitation causes extreme floodings. Typically the risk of flooding in coastal areas is defined analysing either sea level or precipitation driven floodings, however compound floods should be considered to avoid an underestimation of the risk. In the future, the human pressure at the coastal zone is expected to increase, urging for a comprehensive analysis of the compound flooding risk under different climate change scenarios. In this study we introduce the concept of "potential risk" as we investigate how often large amount of precipitation and high sea level may co-occur, and not the effective impact due to the interaction of these two hazards. The effective risk of compound flooding in a specific place depends also on the local orography and on the existing protections. The estimation of the potential risk of compound flooding is useful to individuate places where an effective risk of compound flooding may exist, and where further studies would be useful to get more precise information on the local risk. We estimate the potential risk of compound flooding along the European coastal zone incorporating the ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis for the past and present state, and the future projections from two RCP scenarios (namely the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) as derived from 8 CMIP5 models of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Sea level data are estimated by forcing the hydrodynamic model Delft3D-Flow with 6-hourly wind and atmospheric pressure fields. Based on sea level (storm surge and astronomical tide) and precipitation joint occurrence analysis, a map of the potential compound flooding risk along the European

  11. Assessing Leadership Potential for the Army’s Future Force

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-05-03

    training “provide about 10 percent of the preparation, and coaching and mentoring account for the remaining 10 percent.”67 In 1998, Warren Bennis and...Getting Serious About Leadership: What Do We Have To Hide?. Carlisle Barracks: U.S. Army War College, 12 February 1999. Bennis , Warren, and Burt... Nanus . Leaders: Strategies for Taking Charge. New York, NY: HarperCollins Publishers Inc., 2003. Burnette, Thomas N. Jr., “Building Better Leaders

  12. Assessing positive body image: Contemporary approaches and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Jennifer B; Wood-Barcalow, Nichole L; Tylka, Tracy L

    2015-06-01

    Empirical and clinical interest in positive body image has burgeoned in recent years. This focused attention is generating various measures and methods for researchers and psychotherapists to assess an array of positive body image constructs in populations of interest. No resource to date has integrated the available measures and methods for easy accessibility and comparison. Therefore, this article reviews contemporary scales for the following positive body image constructs: body appreciation, positive rational acceptance, body image flexibility, body functionality, attunement (body responsiveness, mindful self-care), positive/self-accepting body talk, body pride, body sanctification, broad conceptualization of beauty, and self-perceived body acceptance by others. Guidelines for the qualitative assessment of positive body image and recommendations for integrating positive body image assessment within psychotherapy and applied research settings are also offered. The article concludes with articulating broad future directions for positive body image assessment, including ideas for expanding its available measures, methods, and dynamic expressions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Assessment of potential adjuvanticity of Cry proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Saurabh S; Barnett, Brian; Doerrer, Nancy G; Glenn, Kevin; Herman, Rod A; Herouet-Guicheney, Corinne; Hunst, Penny; Kough, John; Ladics, Gregory S; McClain, Scott; Papineni, Sabitha; Poulsen, Lars K; Rascle, Jean-Baptiste; Tao, Ai-Lin; van Ree, Ronald; Ward, Jason; Bowman, Christal C

    2016-08-01

    Genetically modified (GM) crops have achieved success in the marketplace and their benefits extend beyond the overall increase in harvest yields to include lowered use of insecticides and decreased carbon dioxide emissions. The most widely grown GM crops contain gene/s for targeted insect protection, herbicide tolerance, or both. Plant expression of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) crystal (Cry) insecticidal proteins have been the primary way to impart insect resistance in GM crops. Although deemed safe by regulatory agencies globally, previous studies have been the basis for discussions around the potential immuno-adjuvant effects of Cry proteins. These studies had limitations in study design. The studies used animal models with extremely high doses of Cry proteins, which when given using the ig route were co-administered with an adjuvant. Although the presumption exists that Cry proteins may have immunostimulatory activity and therefore an adjuvanticity risk, the evidence shows that Cry proteins are expressed at very low levels in GM crops and are unlikely to function as adjuvants. This conclusion is based on critical review of the published literature on the effects of immunomodulation by Cry proteins, the history of safe use of Cry proteins in foods, safety of the Bt donor organisms, and pre-market weight-of-evidence-based safety assessments for GM crops. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Cell transformation assays for prediction of carcinogenic potential: state of the science and future research needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creton, Stuart; Aardema, Marilyn J; Carmichael, Paul L; Harvey, James S; Martin, Francis L; Newbold, Robert F; O'Donovan, Michael R; Pant, Kamala; Poth, Albrecht; Sakai, Ayako; Sasaki, Kiyoshi; Scott, Andrew D; Schechtman, Leonard M; Shen, Rhine R; Tanaka, Noriho; Yasaei, Hemad

    2012-01-01

    Cell transformation assays (CTAs) have long been proposed as in vitro methods for the identification of potential chemical carcinogens. Despite showing good correlation with rodent bioassay data, concerns over the subjective nature of using morphological criteria for identifying transformed cells and a lack of understanding of the mechanistic basis of the assays has limited their acceptance for regulatory purposes. However, recent drivers to find alternative carcinogenicity assessment methodologies, such as the Seventh Amendment to the EU Cosmetics Directive, have fuelled renewed interest in CTAs. Research is currently ongoing to improve the objectivity of the assays, reveal the underlying molecular changes leading to transformation and explore the use of novel cell types. The UK NC3Rs held an international workshop in November 2010 to review the current state of the art in this field and provide directions for future research. This paper outlines the key points highlighted at this meeting.

  15. Cell transformation assays for prediction of carcinogenic potential: state of the science and future research needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creton, Stuart; Aardema, Marilyn J.; Carmichael, Paul L.; Harvey, James S.; Martin, Francis L.; Newbold, Robert F.; O’Donovan, Michael R.; Pant, Kamala; Poth, Albrecht; Sakai, Ayako; Sasaki, Kiyoshi; Scott, Andrew D.; Schechtman, Leonard M.; Shen, Rhine R.; Tanaka, Noriho; Yasaei, Hemad

    2012-01-01

    Cell transformation assays (CTAs) have long been proposed as in vitro methods for the identification of potential chemical carcinogens. Despite showing good correlation with rodent bioassay data, concerns over the subjective nature of using morphological criteria for identifying transformed cells and a lack of understanding of the mechanistic basis of the assays has limited their acceptance for regulatory purposes. However, recent drivers to find alternative carcinogenicity assessment methodologies, such as the Seventh Amendment to the EU Cosmetics Directive, have fuelled renewed interest in CTAs. Research is currently ongoing to improve the objectivity of the assays, reveal the underlying molecular changes leading to transformation and explore the use of novel cell types. The UK NC3Rs held an international workshop in November 2010 to review the current state of the art in this field and provide directions for future research. This paper outlines the key points highlighted at this meeting. PMID:21852270

  16. Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D. Levitt

    2004-11-09

    The purpose of this model report is to document the infiltration model used to estimate upper-bound, mean, and lower-bound spatially-distributed average annual net infiltration rates for present-day and potential future climates at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Net infiltration is the component of infiltrated precipitation, snowmelt, or surface water run-on that has percolated below the zone of evapotranspiration as defined by the depth of the effective root zone. The estimates of net infiltration are primarily used for defining the upper boundary condition for the site-scale three-dimensional unsaturated zone (UZ) model. The UZ flow model is one of several process models abstracted by the total system performance assessment (TSPA) model used to evaluate performance of the repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The net-infiltration model is important for assessing repository-system performance because output from this model provides the upper boundary condition for the UZ flow model used to generate flow fields; water percolating downward from the UZ will be the principal means by which radionuclides are potentially released to the saturated zone (SZ). The SZ is the principal pathway to the biosphere where the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) is exposed to radionuclides.

  17. Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosa Björk Thorolfsdottir

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25-74. Calculations were based on combining: i data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland, ii population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study, and iii effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses. Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: (1 If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. (2 If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3 Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040. CONCLUSIONS: The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future.

  18. Assessment of wind energy potential in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starosta, Katarzyna; Linkowska, Joanna; Mazur, Andrzej

    2014-05-01

    The aim of the presentation is to show the suitability of using numerical model wind speed forecasts for the wind power industry applications in Poland. In accordance with the guidelines of the European Union, the consumption of wind energy in Poland is rapidly increasing. According to the report of Energy Regulatory Office from 30 March 2013, the installed capacity of wind power in Poland was 2807MW from 765 wind power stations. Wind energy is strongly dependent on the meteorological conditions. Based on the climatological wind speed data, potential energy zones within the area of Poland have been developed (H. Lorenc). They are the first criterion for assessing the location of the wind farm. However, for exact monitoring of a given wind farm location the prognostic data from numerical model forecasts are necessary. For the practical interpretation and further post-processing, the verification of the model data is very important. Polish Institute Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute (IMWM-NRI) runs an operational model COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modelling, version 4.8) using two nested domains at horizontal resolutions of 7 km and 2.8 km. The model produces 36 hour and 78 hour forecasts from 00 UTC, for 2.8 km and 7 km domain resolutions respectively. Numerical forecasts were compared with the observation of 60 SYNOP and 3 TEMP stations in Poland, using VERSUS2 (Unified System Verification Survey 2) and R package. For every zone the set of statistical indices (ME, MAE, RMSE) was calculated. Forecast errors for aerological profiles are shown for Polish TEMP stations at Wrocław, Legionowo and Łeba. The current studies are connected with a topic of the COST ES1002 WIRE-Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies.

  19. Impacts of future climate change on potential yields of major crops in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Y.; Tang, Q.; Liu, X.

    2014-05-01

    Climate change may affect crop development and yield, and consequently cast a shadow of doubt over China's food self-sufficiency efforts. In this study we used the model projections of a couple of global gridded crop models (GGCMs) to assess the effects of future climate change on the potential yields of the major crops (i.e. wheat, rice, maize and soybean) over China. The GGCMs were forced with the bias-corrected climate data from 5 global climate models (GCMs) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 which were made available by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). The results show that the potential yields of rice may increase over a large portion of China. Climate change may benefit food productions over the high-altitude and cold regions where are outside current main agricultural area. However, the potential yield of maize, soybean and wheat may decrease in a large portion of the current main crop planting areas such as North China Plain. Development of new agronomic management strategy may be useful for coping with climate change in the areas with high risk of yield reduction.

  20. Is ambiguity tolerance malleable? Experimental evidence with potential implications for future research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan L Endres

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available We conducted two research studies to address the malleability of TA by manipulating situational ambiguity. Students participated in a semester-end assessment of their management skills (n = 306. In Study 1, students in low and moderate ambiguity conditions had significantly higher post-experiment TA, more positive change in self-efficacy, and marginally higher faculty ratings. In Study 2, a control group (n = 103 did not participate in the assessment and was established for comparison to the first study results. The Study 2 students reported TA significantly lower than Study 1 students in the low and moderate ambiguity conditions. The control group TA was not significantly different from that of the Study 1 high ambiguity condition. This further suggested TA’s situational malleability, as those who had controlled access to structured information appeared to have increased their TA over that observed in the other two groups. These results suggest that TA may be malleable. We review the relevant literature, offer hypotheses, report our analyses and findings, and then propose future research and potential prescriptive applications in such areas as management development, assessment, and decision-making.

  1. Customer satisfaction and customer loyalty as predictors of future business potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskildsen, Jacob Kjær; Kristensen, Kai

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyses the relationship between customer satisfaction, customer loyalty and the future business potential of existing customers. The data for the analysis come from the Danish Customer Satisfaction Index 2006. Here a total of approximately 2000 private customers evaluated their prefe......This paper analyses the relationship between customer satisfaction, customer loyalty and the future business potential of existing customers. The data for the analysis come from the Danish Customer Satisfaction Index 2006. Here a total of approximately 2000 private customers evaluated...

  2. FUTURES

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael Haldrup

    2017-01-01

    Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores...... the potentials of speculative thinking in relation to design and social and cultural studies, arguing that both offer valuable insights for creating a speculative space for new emergent criticalities challenging current assumptions of the relations between power and design. It does so by tracing out discussions...... of ‘futurity’ and ‘futuring’ in design as well as social and cultural studies. Firstly, by discussing futurist and speculative approaches in design thinking; secondly by engaging with ideas of scenario thinking and utopianism in current social and cultural studies; and thirdly by showing how the articulation...

  3. Ergonomic assessment of future methods of ballistic neck protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breeze, John; Clasper, Jon C

    2013-08-01

    Neck injuries from explosively propelled fragments are present in 11% of injured U.K. soldiers and result in significant mortality and long-term morbidity. U.S. forces in contrast sustain only neck wounds in 3 to 4% of those injured, which is believed to be because of their greater acceptance in the wearing of issued neck protection. A three-piece neck collar, two-piece neck collar, a nape pad, a ballistic scarf, and an enhanced protection under body armor shirt (EP-UBACS) reinforced at the collar were objectively compared during a treadmill test using physiological measurements. Designs were subjectively compared regarding their effect on soldier performance using representative military tasks. Both neck collars and the EP-UBACS prototype demonstrated 90% acceptability in terms of military task performance. No statistical difference in tympanic temperature and heart rate was found between prototypes. The statistically significant higher skin temperatures found for prototypes lying close to the skin (EP-UBACS and ballistic scarf) were unrelated to perceived comfort. Neck collars remain the most successful design in terms of military performance, comfort, and potential levels of ballistic protection. However the EP-UBACS concept should also be developed further, with future iterations potentially removing the zip and increasing skin standoff. Reprint & Copyright © 2013 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

  4. Alternative future scenarios for the SPS comparative assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayres, R.U.; Ridker, R.G.; Watson, W.D. Jr.; Arnold, J.; Tayi, G.

    1980-08-01

    The objective of the comparative assessment is to develop an initial understanding of the SPS with respect to a limited set of energy alternatives. A comparative methodology report describes the multi-step process in the comparative assessment. The first step is the selection and characterization of alternative energy systems. Terrestrial alternatives are selected, and their cost, performance, and environmental and social attributes are specified for use in the comparison with the SPS in the post-2000 era. Data on alternative technologies were sought from previous research and from other comparisons. The object of this study is to provide a futures framework for evaluating SPS (i.e., factor prices, primary energy prices, and energy demands for the US from 1980 to 2030). The economic/energy interactions are discussed, and a number of specific modelling schemes that have been used for long-range forecasting purposes are described. This discussion provides the rationale for the choice of a specific model and methodology, which is described. Long-range cost assumptions used in the forecast are detailed, and the basis for the selection of specific scenarios follows. Results of the analysis are detailed. (WHK)

  5. Traumatic brain injury: future assessment tools and treatment prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven R Flanagan

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Steven R Flanagan1, Joshua B Cantor2, Teresa A Ashman21New York University School of Medicine, The Rusk Institute of Rehabilitation, New York, NY, USA; 2Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, NY, USAAbstract: Traumatic brain injury (TBI is widespread and leads to death and disability in millions of individuals around the world each year. Overall incidence and prevalence of TBI are likely to increase in absolute terms in the future. Tackling the problem of treating TBI successfully will require improvements in the understanding of normal cerebral anatomy, physiology, and function throughout the lifespan, as well as the pathological and recuperative responses that result from trauma. New treatment approaches and combinations will need to be targeted to the heterogeneous needs of TBI populations. This article explores and evaluates the research evidence in areas that will likely lead to a reduction in TBI-related morbidity and improved outcomes. These include emerging assessment instruments and techniques in areas of structural/chemical and functional neuroimaging and neuropsychology, advances in the realms of cell-based therapies and genetics, promising cognitive rehabilitation techniques including cognitive remediation and the use of electronic technologies including assistive devices and virtual reality, and the emerging field of complementary and alternative medicine.Keywords: traumatic brain injury, assessments, treatments

  6. Analysis of Potential Future Climate and Climate Extremes in the Brazos Headwaters Basin, Texas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ripendra Awal

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Texas’ fast-growing economy and population, coupled with cycles of droughts due to climate change, are creating an insatiable demand for water and an increasing need to understand the potential impacts of future climates and climate extremes on the state’s water resources. The objective of this study was to determine potential future climates and climate extremes; and to assess spatial and temporal changes in precipitation (Prec, and minimum and maximum temperature (Tmin and Tmax, respectively, in the Brazos Headwaters Basin under three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1 for three future periods: 2020s (2011–2030, 2055s (2046–2065, and 2090s (2080–2099. Daily gridded climate data obtained from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR were used to downscale outputs from 15 General Circulation Models (GCMs using the Long Ashton Research Station–Weather Generator (LARS-WG model. Results indicate that basin average Tmin and Tmax will increase; however, annual precipitation will decrease for all periods. Annual precipitation will decrease by up to 5.2% and 6.8% in the 2055s and 2090s, respectively. However, in some locations in the basin, up to a 14% decrease in precipitation is projected in the 2090s under the A2 (high emissions scenario. Overall, the northwestern and southern part of the Brazos Headwaters Basin will experience greater decreases in precipitation. Moreover, precipitation indices of the number of wet days (prec ≥ 5 mm and heavy precipitation days (prec ≥ 10 mm are projected to slightly decrease for all future periods. On the other hand, Tmin and Tmax will increase by 2 and 3 °C on average in the 2055s and 2090s, respectively. Mostly, projected increases in Tmin and Tmax will be in the upper range in the southern and southeastern part of the basin. Temperature indices of frost (Tmin < 0 °C and ice days (Tmax < 0 °C are projected to decrease, while tropical nights (Tmin > 20 °C and summer days (Tmax

  7. Elements of a regulatory strategy for the consideration of future human actions in safety assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Wickham, S.M.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

    1999-09-01

    The objective of this report is to discuss issues that should be considered in the development of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in any forthcoming license application for a deep repository for spent fuel in Sweden and for sites of other repositories. The report comprises an outline of key issues concerning the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, reviews of regulatory developments, recent safety assessments and supporting studies, and international initiatives on the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, and the principal elements of a regulatory strategy. Performance assessments (PAs) are generally accepted as providing illustrations of system performance under given sets of assumptions. The results of PAs are clearer and easier tounderstand if certain large uncertainties are accounted for by determining performance under several different sets of assumptions or scenarios, each of which defines a possible evolution of the disposal system. A number of assumptions can be made that would restrict the scope of an assessment without reducing the credibility of the corresponding safety case. Reducing speculation about technological development, by assuming that the techniques used in future human activities are similar to those currently in use in the region or at similar sites, will simplify the assessment. A distinction is generally made between inadvertent and intentional intrusion, with intentional activities excluded because society cannot protect future populations from their own actions if they understand the potential consequences. A division of human activities into 'recent and ongoing' and 'future' activities considers not only the timing of the activities but also the degree of control or influence that can be imposed on them. Recent and ongoing human activities are those that affect an area beyond the immediate vicinity of the disposal facility and which neither the proponent

  8. Proposal of global flood vulnerability scenarios for evaluating future potential flood losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Y.; Tanoue, M.; Watanabe, S.; Hirabayashi, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Flooding is one of the most hazardous and damaging natural disasters causing serious economic loss and casualties across the world (Jongman et al., 2015). Previous studies showed that the global temperature increase affects regional weather pattern, and several general circulation model (GCM) simulations suggest the increase of flood events in both frequency and magnitude in many parts of the world (Hirabayashi et al., 2013). Effective adaptation to potential flood risks under the warming climate requires an in-depth understanding of both the physical and socioeconomic contributors of the flood risk. To assess the realistic future potential flood risk, future sophisticated vulnerability scenarios associated with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are necessary. In this study we propose a new future vulnerability scenarios in mortality. Our vulnerability scenarios are constructed based on the modeled flood exposure (population potentially suffered by flooding) and a past from 1980 to 2005. All the flood fatality data were classified according to four income levels (high, mid-high, mid-low and low). Our proposed scenarios have three pathways regarding to SSPs; High efficiency (HE) scenario (SSP1, SSP4 (rich country) and SSP5), Medium efficiency (ME) scenario (SSP2), and Low efficiency (LE) scenario (SSP3 and SSP4 (poor country)). The maximum mortality protection level on each category was detected by applying exponential curve fitting with offset term. Slopes in the HE scenario are assumed to be equal to slopes estimated by regression analysis in each category. The slope in the HE scenario is defined by the mean value of all countries' slope value that is approximately -0.33 mortality decreases per year. The EM-DAT mortality data shows a decreasing trend in time in almost all of the countries. Although mortalities in some countries show an increasing trend, this is because these countries were affected by once-in-hundred-years floods after 1990's. The slope in

  9. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2017-05-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  10. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2017-05-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  11. Global and Regional Future Potential for Energy from Municipal Solid Waste

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, J. S.; Smith, S. J.

    2008-12-01

    Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) is a low-cost form of alternative energy with a large potential for future expansion. MSW is already collected and aggregated at population centers where energy demands are high. In addition, it is non-seasonal, and using MSW as an energy source reduces land demand for waste disposal sites in urban areas where land pressures are high. Across the world, the MSW generation rate and its composition vary greatly, but detailed historical data on MSW are not well archived for most of the world. In this study, material flows into the MSW stream are estimated by analyzing production and trade statistics of food, wood, and paper. A life cycle analysis for consumption is used to estimate the amount and composition of MSW for all countries of the world. The primary energy available is estimated based on the energy content of the various waste components. The relationship between GDP, population, per capita GDP, and MSW generation is determined via a regression model. The ObjECTS MiniCAM (integrated assessment model) is used to project the demand for waste-to-energy for the next century for different regions of the world under various international climate policy scenarios. MSW is potentially a low net carbon energy source that can displace fossil energy, and as such, demand for waste-to-energy increases under a climate policy that places a price on carbon emissions.

  12. Vehicle Shield Optimization and Risk Assessment of Future NEO Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nounu, Hatem, N.; Kim, Myung-Hee; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Future human space missions target far destinations such as Near Earth Objects (NEO) or Mars that require extended stay in hostile radiation environments in deep space. The continuous assessment of exploration vehicles is needed to iteratively optimize the designs for shielding protection and calculating the risks associated with such long missions. We use a predictive software capability that calculates the risks to humans inside a spacecraft. The software uses the CAD software Pro/Engineer and Fishbowl tool kit to quantify the radiation shielding properties of the spacecraft geometry by calculating the areal density seen at a certain point, dose point, inside the spacecraft. The shielding results are used by NASA-developed software, BRYNTRN, to quantify the organ doses received in a human body located in the vehicle in a possible solar particle events (SPE) during such prolonged space missions. The organ doses are used to quantify the risks posed on the astronauts' health and life using NASA Space Cancer Model software. An illustration of the shielding optimization and risk calculation on an exploration vehicle design suitable for a NEO mission is provided in this study. The vehicle capsule is made of aluminum shell, airlock with hydrogen-rich carbon composite material end caps. The capsule contains sets of racks that surround a working and living area. A water shelter is provided in the middle of the vehicle to enhance the shielding in case of SPE. The mass distribution is optimized to minimize radiation hotspots and an assessment of the risks associated with a NEO mission is calculated.

  13. Bio-SNG potential assessment: Denmark 2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahrenfeldt, J.; Thomsen, T. (Risoe DTU, Roskilde (Denmark)); Joergensen, Betina (Dansk Gasteknisk Center A/S, Hoersholm (Denmark))

    2010-11-15

    In this project the potential for SNG based on biomass gasification has been sought elucidated. As part of the project a model for simulation of biomass in Denmark has been developed. The conclusion is that SNG can substitute a significant amount of natural gas, but the energy efficiency should be improved. (Author)

  14. Bio-SNG potential assessment: Denmark 2020

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahrenfeldt, Jesper; Jørgensen, Betina; Thomsen, Tobias

    In this project the potential for SNG based on biomass gasification has been sought elucidated. As part of the project a model for simulation of biomass in Denmark has been developed. The conclusion is that SNG can substitute a significant amount of natural gas, but the energy efficiency should...

  15. Learning Potential Assessment: Theoretical, Methodological and Practical Issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamers, J. H. M., Ed.; Sijtsma, K., Ed.; Ruijssenaars, A. J. J. M., Ed.

    The first part of this volume is concerned with theoretical and conceptual issues concerning learning potential assessment. The second part deals with methodological and measurement issues in learning potential assessment, and the third part is devoted to research projects and practical applications of learning potential tests. The following…

  16. Future potential for anti-infectives from bacteria - how to exploit biodiversity and genomic potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Rolf; Wink, Joachim

    2014-01-01

    The early stages of antibiotic development include the identification of novel hit compounds. Since actinomycetes and myxobacteria are still the most important natural sources of active metabolites, we provide an overview on these producers and discuss three of the most promising approaches toward finding novel anti-infectives from microorganisms. These are defined as the use of biodiversity to find novel producers, the variation of culture conditions and induction of silent genes, and the exploitation of the genomic potential of producers via "genome mining". Challenges that exist beyond compound discovery are outlined in the last section. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  17. An Analysis of Current and Future Wind Energy Gain Potential for Central Iowa

    OpenAIRE

    Sharifi, Farrokh; Hashemi, Nastaran

    2015-01-01

    Using a significant quantity of fossil fuels has adverse impacts on our lives and will affect future generations. Additionally, there are limited and decreasing numbers of nonrenewable resources around the world. In contrast, renewable resources are not depleted and provide energy with negligible pollution. Wind energy is one of the more common renewable energy resources. This project aims to evaluate Iowa's wind energy potential and to provide suggestions to improve the future well‐bein...

  18. Future yields assessment of bioenergy crops in relation to climate change and technological development in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvatore L. Cosentino

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Bioenergy crops are expected to play an important role in reducing CO2 emission, in energy supply and in European energy policy. However, a sustainable bioenergy supply must be resilient to climate change and the impacts on agriculture at both global and regional scale. The purpose of this study was to forecast the potential distribution of several bioenergy crops based on agronomic and environmental constrains under current conditions and future scenarios (2020 and 2030 in European Union. Potential biomass yield, according to the category end use product achievable in each environmental zone of Europe at present and in the future available land have been also studied. Future yields were assessed according to two factors: technological development and climate change: the former was based on prospect of DG-Agriculture for conventional crops and expert judgments for bioenergy crops, while the latter based on relevant research papers and literature reviews which used site-specific crop growth models. Yields are expected to increase in northern Europe due to climate change and technological development, while in southerneastern Europe the negative effect of climate change will be mitigated by the technological development. The estimated total biomass production in Europe, on the basis of future yields and surplus land made available for energy crops, may not be sufficient to meet the needs of bioenergy supply as claimed in the European directive 2009/28/EC.

  19. Hydropower in Turkey: potential and market assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-10-15

    The Turkish hydropower market provides huge opportunities for investors and suppliers. Successful market entry is not easy, however, as the market is still not fully liberalized, the need for local intelligence is large and the competition is increasing. There are also potential political, reputational and environmental risks, typical for an emerging economy. The World Bank global 'Ease of doing business' ranking (2010), ranks Turkey as number 73 of 183 countries. (Author)

  20. The future of Yellowcake: a global assessment of uranium resources and mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudd, Gavin M

    2014-02-15

    Uranium (U) mining remains controversial in many parts of the world, especially in a post-Fukushima context, and often in areas with significant U resources. Although nuclear proponents point to the relatively low carbon intensity of nuclear power compared to fossil fuels, opponents argue that this will be eroded in the future as ore grades decline and energy and greenhouse gas emissions (GGEs) intensity increases as a result. Invariably both sides fail to make use of the increasingly available data reported by some U mines through sustainability reporting - allowing a comprehensive assessment of recent trends in the energy and GGE intensity of U production, as well as combining this with reported mineral resources to allow more comprehensive modelling of future energy and GGEs intensity. In this study, detailed data sets are compiled on reported U resources by deposit type, as well as mine production, energy and GGE intensity. Some important aspects included are the relationship between ore grade, deposit type and recovery, which are crucial in future projections of U mining. Overall, the paper demonstrates that there are extensive U resources known to meet potential short to medium term demand, although the future of U mining remains uncertain due to the doubt about the future of nuclear power as well as a range of complex social, environmental, economic and some site-specific technical issues. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Assessing the potential toxicity of resuspended sediment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bonnet, C.; Babut, M.; Ferard, J.F.; Martel, L.; Garric, J.

    2000-05-01

    Two moderately contaminated freshwater sediments (Sorel Harbour, St. Lawrence River, Canada) were subjected to a suspension event. The objective was to assess the environmental impact of the disposal of dredged material in water, in particular, the short-term effects of dumping on the water column and the long-term effects of dredged sediment deposits. In a series of microcosms, the sediments were left to stand for 25 d under flow-through conditions. In a second series of microcosms, sediments were vigorously suspended for 15 min before being left to settle and were submitted to the same treatment as reference sediments during the following 25 d. Physicochemical and biological parameters (Daphnia magna and Hydra attenuata survival) were measured in overlying water throughout the experiment. Sediment toxicity was assessed with Chironomus tentans and Hyalella azteca exposed to sediments collected at both the beginning and end of the 25-d period. Pore-water toxicity was evaluated with D. magna. During the suspension process, in the Sorel Harbour mixed sediment overlying water, the authors observed effects on H. attenuata survival and ammonia and metals (chromium, copper, and zinc) releases. Meanwhile, in reference (nonmixed) and mixed sediments as well as in associated pore waters, there were no significant chemical modifications no biological effects after the 25-d experiments. The developed approach, which attempts to simulate a dumping process, aims at allowing the assessment of the short- and long-term hazards resulting from a resuspension process in overlying water and in resettled sediments using both chemical and biological measurements.

  2. Flash-flood potential assessment and mapping by integrating the ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    flood potential assessment and mapping by integrating the ... A basic step in flood risk management is identifying areas susceptible to flood occurrences. This paper proposes a methodology allowing the identification of areas with high potential ...

  3. Energy potential of region and its quantitative assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatyana Aleksandrovna Kovalenko

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the article is the development of the concept of the energy potential of the region (EPR, the analysis of the existing structure of relationships for the EPR elements in Ukraine and improvement of a quantitative assessment of energy potential of the region (country. The methods of an assessment of the existing condition of energy potential of the territory are the subject matter of the research. As a result of the analysis of concept’s definitions of energy potential of the region, it has further development and included the consumer potential of energy resources and capacity of management. The structure of relationships between elements of energy potential is developed for the Ukraine region. The new economic indicator — the realized energy potential is offered for an EPR assessment. By means of this indicator, the assessment of energy potential for the different countries of the world and a number of Ukraine areas of is performed.

  4. Biogas. Present situation and future potential; Biogas. Nulaege och framtida potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nordberg, Ulf [Swedish Inst. of Agricultural and Environmental Engineering, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2006-12-15

    The report contains a general overview of present technology concerning production of biogas through anaerobic breakdown of easily recycled organic material as well as implementation areas for biogas. The work has been done in three parts: description of present situation, technical limitations and development efforts, synthesis. In Sweden there are more than 220 biogas plants for handling crops, sludge and organic residue material. Production of biogas occurs primarily at sewage treatment plants and landfills. Total capacity in 2004 was approx. 300,000 m{sup 3} anaerobic chamber volume, of which approx. 73% was utilised. Planned increase in capacity was approx. 125,000 m{sup 3} or approx. 42%.The substrate brought to the plants was comprised of approx. 45% manure, 30% offal, 10% biowaste from households and 15% other substrates. Calculations based on the energy content of input substrate indicate that approx. 10% of the gas was from manure, 65% from offal, 25% from household waste and 5% from other substrates. In 2005 a total of 1,5 TWh of biogas was produced in Sweden. Biogas is used primarily for heating purposes followed by use as vehicle fuel and in electricity production. More than 55 GWh is torched away. Sewage treatment plants are not included. Interest in using biogas as fuel has increased. The theoretical biogas potential in Sweden has been calculated to be 14-17 TWh per year, of which approx. 80% is found in agriculturally related biomass. Approximately 3 TWh originates from various types of household and industrial waste. Generally it can be said that there is a large potential for improvement and increased efficiency within the whole chain of substrate collection, preparatory treatment of substrates, operational control of biogas plants, upgrade/treatment and use of gas as well as spreading and use of biofertilizer. The greatest increase in substrate will come from the amount of crops from the agricultural sector. The contacts between farmers and plant

  5. Customer Satisfaction and Customer Loyalty as Predictors of Future Business Potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskildsen, Jacob Kjær; Kristensen, Kai

    2007-01-01

    This paper analyzes the relationship between customer satisfaction, customer loyalty and the future business potential of existing customers. The data for the analysis comes from the Danish Customer Satisfaction Index 2006. Here a total of app. 2000 private customers evaluated their preferred pro......This paper analyzes the relationship between customer satisfaction, customer loyalty and the future business potential of existing customers. The data for the analysis comes from the Danish Customer Satisfaction Index 2006. Here a total of app. 2000 private customers evaluated their...

  6. Testing and evaluation: the present and future of the assessment of medical professionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haist, Steven A; Butler, Agata P; Paniagua, Miguel A

    2017-03-01

    The aim of this review is to highlight recent and potential future enhancements to the United States Licensing Examination (USMLE) program. The USMLE program is co-owned by the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) and the Federation of State Medical Boards. The USMLE includes four examinations: Step 1, Step 2 Clinical Knowledge, Step 2 Clinical Skills, and Step 3; every graduate of Liaison Committee on Medical Education-accredited allopathic medical schools and all international medical graduates must pass this examination series to practice medicine in the United States. From 2006 to 2009, the program underwent an indepth review resulting in five accepted recommendations. These recommendations have been the primary driver for many of the recent enhancements, such as an increased emphasis on foundational science and changes in the clinical skills examination, including more advanced communication skills assessment. These recommendations will continue to inform future changes such as access to references (e.g., a map of metabolic pathways) or decision-making tools for use during the examination. The NBME also provides assessment services globally to medical schools, students, residency programs, and residents. In 2015, >550,000 assessments were provided through the subject examination program, NBME self-assessment services, and customized assessment services. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

  7. Realising the potential of health needs assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anstey, Matthew; Burgess, Paul; Angus, Lisa

    2017-05-15

    Population-level assessment and planning has traditionally been the role of public health departments but in establishing Primary Health Networks (PHNs), the Australian Government has instituted a new mechanism for identifying community needs and commissioning services to meet those needs. If PHNs are to achieve the vision of nimble organisations capable of identifying and addressing local health needs via integrated health and social services, several things need to occur. First, PHN funding schedules must become more flexible. Second, the Federal health department must maintain an open dialogue with PHNs, permit waivers in funding schedules to suit local conditions and be prepared to back innovations with seed investment. Third, health data exchange and linkage must be accelerated to better inform community needs assessments and commissioning. Finally, PHNs must be encouraged and supported to develop collaborations both within and outside the health sector in order to identify and address a broad set of health issues and determinants. By following these principles, PHNs may become leading change agents in the Australian healthcare system.

  8. Future Diet Scenarios and Their Effect on Regional and Global Biofuel Potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, J.; hvid, A.

    2012-04-01

    Food production has been one of the most significant ways in which humans have changed the surface of the Earth. It is projected that further intensification of agriculture will be necessary to meet a growing population and the increased demand for calories from animal products. This would require substantially more land and resources devoted to animal production. However, globally, the proportion of per capita caloric intake from animal to total caloric intake has remained relatively constant for the last 50 years at slightly above 15%. Nevertheless, there are large discrepancies across regions and through time. For example, northern European countries derive over 30% of calories from animal products, while India is under 10%; between 1961 and 2007, China's per capita consumption of animal calories has increased by over a factor of ten, while in the US, animal calorie consumption has remained constant. In general, per capita consumption of animal products is lower in developing countries than in developed countries, and it is commonly assumed that future animal product consumption will increase as developing countries become wealthier. On the other hand, wealthier countries are remaining constant or even decreasing their proportional consumption of animal calories, and this could be a different way that future diets may evolve. We create different future scenarios for calorie demand from vegetal products, beef, sheep and goat, pork, poultry, and dairy based on historical national trends and estimated income elasticities for these various food products. The extreme scenarios are one in which the world evolves to a highly vegetal calorie diet and, on the other extreme, one in which the world evolves to diets with high meat consumption. Intermediate scenarios include projections of current trends and one in which the world moves to a healthy balanced diet given current recommendations. Using DTU-GCAM, and global integrated assessment model with an included land use

  9. Interim Feed The Future Population Based Assessment of Cambodia

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Agency for International Development — This is the interim population based survey of Feed the Future in Cambodia for 2015. The data is split into survey modules. Modules A through C includes location...

  10. Turbulence assessment at potential turbine sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniels, A. [Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI (United States)

    1996-12-31

    As opposed to a fixed anemometer, the Tala kite is free to move in the air. The motion of the kite is not random, it moves with or against the speed gradient towards the center of passing turbulence events of higher or lower speeds thus allowing the kite to measure event maximum or minimum speed rather than the speed at some unknown distance from the event center like a fixed anemometer. This behavior is confirmed both by a theoretical aerodynamics analysis of the kite motion and by data from a field study where kite and hot film anemometer (HFA) events, defined by the rain flow count method, were compared with flap events on a rotating turbine blade. The HFAs simulated too few events lasting too long while the kites reproduced both the number of events and event periods remarkably close. It is concluded that the kite is the optimal tool for measuring turbulence at potential turbine sites. Kite turbulence can form the bases for economic return estimates and an example is given where less windy sites could be more economical than other more turbulent higher speed sites. 13 refs., 8 figs.

  11. Assessment of potential adjuvanticity of Cry proteins

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joshi, Saurabh S; Barnett, Brian; Doerrer, Nancy G

    2016-01-01

    Genetically modified (GM) crops have achieved success in the marketplace and their benefits extend beyond the overall increase in harvest yields to include lowered use of insecticides and decreased carbon dioxide emissions. The most widely grown GM crops contain gene/s for targeted insect protect......, the history of safe use of Cry proteins in foods, safety of the Bt donor organisms, and pre-market weight-of-evidence-based safety assessments for GM crops.......Genetically modified (GM) crops have achieved success in the marketplace and their benefits extend beyond the overall increase in harvest yields to include lowered use of insecticides and decreased carbon dioxide emissions. The most widely grown GM crops contain gene/s for targeted insect...... protection, herbicide tolerance, or both. Plant expression of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) crystal (Cry) insecticidal proteins have been the primary way to impart insect resistance in GM crops. Although deemed safe by regulatory agencies globally, previous studies have been the basis for discussions around...

  12. ASSESSMENT OF HOUSEHOLD CARBON FOOTPRINT REDUCTION POTENTIALS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, Klaas Jan; Homan, Greg; Brown, Rich; Worrell, Ernst; Masanet, Eric

    2009-04-15

    The term ?household carbon footprint? refers to the total annual carbon emissions associated with household consumption of energy, goods, and services. In this project, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory developed a carbon footprint modeling framework that characterizes the key underlying technologies and processes that contribute to household carbon footprints in California and the United States. The approach breaks down the carbon footprint by 35 different household fuel end uses and 32 different supply chain fuel end uses. This level of end use detail allows energy and policy analysts to better understand the underlying technologies and processes contributing to the carbon footprint of California households. The modeling framework was applied to estimate the annual home energy and supply chain carbon footprints of a prototypical California household. A preliminary assessment of parameter uncertainty associated with key model input data was also conducted. To illustrate the policy-relevance of this modeling framework, a case study was conducted that analyzed the achievable carbon footprint reductions associated with the adoption of energy efficient household and supply chain technologies.

  13. Future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    . USDA Forest Service.

    2012-01-01

    The Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 (RPA) mandates a periodic assessment of the conditions and trends of the Nation's renewable resources on forests and rangelands. The RPA Assessment includes projections of resource conditions and trends 50 years into the future. The 2010 RPA Assessment used a set of future scenarios to provide a...

  14. Beyond offshoring: assess your company's global potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Diana

    2004-12-01

    In the past few years, companies have become aware that they can slash costs by offshoring: moving jobs to lower-wage locations. But this practice is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of how globalization can transform industries, according to research by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI). The institute's yearlong study suggests that by streamlining their production processes and supply chains globally, rather than just nationally or regionally, companies can lower their costs-as we've seen in the consumer-electronics and PC industries. Companies can save as much as 70% of their total costs through globalization--50% from offshoring, 5% from training and business-task redesign, and 15% from process improvements. But they don't have to stop there. The cost reductions make it possible to lower prices and expand into new markets, attracting whole new classes of customers. To date, however, few businesses have recognized the full scope of performance improvements that globalization makes possible, much less developed sound strategies for capturing those opportunities. In this article, Diana Farrell, director of MGI, offers a step-by-step approach to doing both things. Among her suggestions: Assess where your industry falls along the globalization spectrum, because not all sectors of the economy face the same challenges and opportunities at the same time. Also, pay attention to production, regulatory, and organizational barriers to globalization. If any of these can be changed, size up the cost-saving (and revenue-generating) opportunities that will emerge for your company as a result of those changes. Farrell also defines the five stages of globalization-market entry, product specialization, value chain disaggregation, value chain reengineering, and the creation of new markets-and notes the different levers for cutting costs and creating value that companies can use in each phase.

  15. The Development of B2C E-Commerce in Greece: Current Situation and Future Potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kardaras, Dimitris; Papathanassiou, Eleutherios

    2000-01-01

    Reports on the results of a survey of 120 companies in Greece that evaluated the potential of business to customer (B2C) Internet applications and investigated how the Internet and e-commerce can offer new opportunities for businesses to improve their customers' satisfaction. Discusses electronic commerce problems and future technology. (Contains…

  16. Functional Behavior Assessment in Schools: Current Status and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Cynthia M.; Rodriguez, Billie Jo; Campbell, Amy

    2015-01-01

    Functional behavior assessment is becoming a commonly used practice in school settings. Accompanying this growth has been an increase in research on functional behavior assessment. We reviewed the extant literature on documenting indirect and direct methods of functional behavior assessment in school settings. To discern best practice guidelines…

  17. US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John; Jacobs, Kathy; Lempert, Rob; Mearns, L. O.; Melillo, Jerry; Mote, Phil; O' Brien, Sheila; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, Alex; Sheppard, Stephen; Vallario, Robert W.; Wiek, Arnim; Wilbanks, Thomas

    2011-10-01

    This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for release in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes

  18. Using scenarios to assess possible future impacts of invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauber, T. Bruce; Stedman, Richard C.; Connelly, Nancy A; Rudstam, Lars G.; Ready, Richard C; Poe, Gregory L; Bunnell, David B.; Hook, Tomas O.; Koops, Marten A.; Ludsin, Stuart A.; Rutherford, Edward S; Wittmann, Marion E.

    2016-01-01

    The expected impacts of invasive species are key considerations in selecting policy responses to potential invasions. But predicting the impacts of invasive species is daunting, particularly in large systems threatened by multiple invasive species, such as North America’s Laurentian Great Lakes. We developed and evaluated a scenario-building process that relied on an expert panel to assess possible future impacts of aquatic invasive species on recreational fishing in the Great Lakes. To maximize its usefulness to policy makers, this process was designed to be implemented relatively rapidly and consider a range of species. The expert panel developed plausible, internally-consistent invasion scenarios for 5 aquatic invasive species, along with subjective probabilities of those scenarios. We describe these scenarios and evaluate this approach for assessing future invasive species impacts. The panel held diverse opinions about the likelihood of the scenarios, and only one scenario with impacts on sportfish species was considered likely by most of the experts. These outcomes are consistent with the literature on scenario building, which advocates for developing a range of plausible scenarios in decision making because the uncertainty of future conditions makes the likelihood of any particular scenario low. We believe that this scenario-building approach could contribute to policy decisions about whether and how to address the possible impacts of invasive species. In this case, scenarios could allow policy makers to narrow the range of possible impacts on Great Lakes fisheries they consider and help set a research agenda for further refining invasive species predictions.

  19. Modelling cereal crops to assess future climate risk for family food self-sufficiency in southern Mali

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Traore, Bouba; Descheemaeker, Katrien; Wijk, van Mark T.; Corbeels, Marc; Supit, Iwan; Giller, Ken E.

    2017-01-01

    Future climate change will have far reaching consequences for smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa, the majority of whom depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. Here we assessed the farm-level impact of climate change on family food self-sufficiency and evaluated potential adaptation

  20. Priority assessment of toxic substances in life cycle assessment. III: Export of potential impact over time and space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huijbregts, M A; Guinée, J B; Reijnders, L

    2001-07-01

    Toxicity potentials are scaling factors used in life cycle assessment (LCA) indicating their relative importance in terms of potential toxic impacts. This paper presents the results of an uncertainty assessment of toxicity potentials for 181 substances that were calculated with the global nested multi-media fate, exposure and effects model USES-LCA. The variance in toxicity potentials resulting from choices in the modelling procedure was quantified by means of scenario analysis. A first scenario analysis showed to what extent potential impacts in the relatively short term are obscured by the inclusion of impacts on the very long term. Toxicity potentials representing potential impacts over time horizons of 20, 100 and 500 years were compared with toxicity potentials representing potential impacts over an infinite time horizon. Time horizon dependent differences up to 6.5 orders of magnitude were found for metal toxicity potentials, while for toxicity potentials of organic substances under study, differences remain within 0.5 orders of magnitude. The second scenario analysis addressed to what extent potential impacts on the continental scale are obscured by the inclusion of impacts on the global scale. Exclusion of potential impacts on the global scale changed the toxicity potentials of metals and volatile persistent halogenated organics up to 2.3 orders of magnitude. These scenario analyses also provide the basis for determining exports to future generations and outside the emission area.

  1. Assessment of bioenergy potential on marginal land in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhuang, Dafang; Jiang, Dong; Liu, Lei; Huang, Yaohuan [Data Center for Resources and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101 (China)

    2011-02-15

    Bioenergy developed from energy plants will play a more and more important role in future energy supply. Much attention has been paid to energy plants in recent years. As China has fairly limited cultivated land resources, the bioenergy development may mainly rely on the exploitation of marginal land. This study focused on the assessment of marginal land resources and bio-fuel potential in China using newly acquired data and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. A multi-factor analysis method was adopted to identify marginal lands for bioenergy development in China, with data of several main types of energy plants on the eco-environmental requirements and natural habits employed. A combined planting zonation strategy was proposed, which was targeted for five species of energy plants including Helianthus tuberous L., Pistacia chinensis, Jatropha curcas L., Cassava and Vernicia fordii. The results indicated that total area of marginal land exploitable for development of energy plants on a large scale was about 43.75 million ha. If 10% of this marginal land was fully utilized for growing the energy plants, the production of bio-fuel would be 13.39 million tons. (author)

  2. Current Animal Models of Postoperative Spine Infection and Potential Future Advances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra eStavrakis

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Implant related infection following spine surgery is a devastating complication for patients and can potentially lead to significant neurological compromise, disability, morbidity, and even mortality. This paper provides an overview of the existing animal models of postoperative spine infection and highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each model. In addition there is discussion regarding potential modifications to these animal models to better evaluate preventative and treatment strategies for this challenging complication. Current models are effective in simulating surgical procedures but fail to evaluate infection longitudinally using multiple techniques. Potential future modifications to these models include using advanced imaging technologies to evaluate infection, use of bioluminescent bacterial species, and testing of novel treatment strategies against multiple bacterial strains. There is potential to establish a postoperative spine infection model using smaller animals, such as mice, as these would be a more cost-effective screening tool for potential therapeutic interventions.

  3. Current Animal Models of Postoperative Spine Infection and Potential Future Advances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavrakis, A I; Loftin, A H; Lord, E L; Hu, Y; Manegold, J E; Dworsky, E M; Scaduto, A A; Bernthal, N M

    2015-01-01

    Implant related infection following spine surgery is a devastating complication for patients and can potentially lead to significant neurological compromise, disability, morbidity, and even mortality. This paper provides an overview of the existing animal models of postoperative spine infection and highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each model. In addition, there is discussion regarding potential modifications to these animal models to better evaluate preventative and treatment strategies for this challenging complication. Current models are effective in simulating surgical procedures but fail to evaluate infection longitudinally using multiple techniques. Potential future modifications to these models include using advanced imaging technologies to evaluate infection, use of bioluminescent bacterial species, and testing of novel treatment strategies against multiple bacterial strains. There is potential to establish a postoperative spine infection model using smaller animals, such as mice, as these would be a more cost-effective screening tool for potential therapeutic interventions.

  4. Bioenergy potentials from forestry in 2050 : An assessment of the drivers that determine the potentials

    OpenAIRE

    Smeets, E.M.W.; Faaij, A.P.C.

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the global energy production potential of woody biomass from forestry for the year 2050 using a bottom-up analysis of key factors. Woody biomass from forestry was defined as all of the aboveground woody biomass of trees, including all products made from woody biomass. This includes the harvesting, processing and use of woody biomass. The projection was performed by comparing the future demand with the future supply of wood, based on existing databases...

  5. Assessing Collaborative Learning: Big Data, Analytics and University Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Assessment in higher education has focused on the performance of individual students. This focus has been a practical as well as an epistemic one: methods of assessment are constrained by the technology of the day, and in the past they required the completion by individuals under controlled conditions of set-piece academic exercises. Recent…

  6. The Ultrasonic Polar Scan for Composite Characterization and Damage Assessment: Past, Present and Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathias Kersemans

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In the early 1980’s, the ultrasonic polar scan (UPS technique was developed to assess the fiber direction of composites in a nondestructive way. In spite of the recognition by several researchers as being a sophisticated and promising methodology for nondestructive testing (NDT and materials science, little advance was made during the following 30 years. Recently however, the UPS technique experienced a strong revival and various modifications to the original UPS setup have been successfully implemented. This revival has exposed several powerful capabilities and interesting applications of the UPS technique for material characterization and damage assessment. This paper gives a short historical overview of the UPS technique for characterizing and inspecting (damaged fiber-reinforced plastics. In addition, a few future research lines are given, which will further expand the applicability and potential of the UPS method to a broader range of (damaged materials, bringing the UPS technique to the next level of maturity.

  7. Perception of students' intelligence malleability and potential for future success: Unfavourable beliefs towards girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verniers, Catherine; Martinot, Delphine

    2015-09-01

    Endorsing an entity theory of intelligence has negative effects on students' academic trajectories. Research focused on students' personal theories of intelligence has shown that girls are more likely than boys to hold an entity theory of intelligence. However, no study has examined the possibility of a gender stereotype basis for this belief. We examined whether secondary school students are knowledgeable about others' beliefs describing female students' intelligence as less malleable than male students' intelligence. A sample of 85 French ninth graders were asked to rate to what extent others perceived: (1) female or male students' intelligence as malleable and fixed; (2) female or male students as making efforts for their current achievement; and (3) female or male students as having potential for future success. Participants reported that others perceived girls' intelligence as less malleable than boys' intelligence. Moreover, the relationship between current efforts and potential for future achievement depended on the target's gender. The more hardworking a female student was perceived to be in school, the less she was considered to have potential to succeed in the future, whereas such a link was not observed for a male student. Secondary school students seem to be knowledgeable about a gender stereotype regarding intelligence and potential for academic success which is unfavourable for female students. Implications for students' academic trajectories are discussed. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

  8. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Potential for Energy Efficiency Improvement Beyond the Light-Duty-Vehicle Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vyas, A. D.; Patel, D. M.; Bertram, K. M.

    2013-03-01

    Considerable research has focused on energy efficiency and fuel substitution options for light-duty vehicles, while much less attention has been given to medium- and heavy-duty trucks, buses, aircraft, marine vessels, trains, pipeline, and off-road equipment. This report brings together the salient findings from an extensive review of literature on future energy efficiency options for these non-light-duty modes. Projected activity increases to 2050 are combined with forecasts of overall fuel efficiency improvement potential to estimate the future total petroleum and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to current levels. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  9. Transportation Energy Futures Series. Potential for Energy Efficiency Improvement Beyond the Light-Duty-Vehicle Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vyas, A. D. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Patel, D. M. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Bertram, K. M. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2013-02-01

    Considerable research has focused on energy efficiency and fuel substitution options for light-duty vehicles, while much less attention has been given to medium- and heavy-duty trucks, buses, aircraft, marine vessels, trains, pipeline, and off-road equipment. This report brings together the salient findings from an extensive review of literature on future energy efficiency options for these non-light-duty modes. Projected activity increases to 2050 are combined with forecasts of overall fuel efficiency improvement potential to estimate the future total petroleum and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to current levels. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  10. Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remington, Benjamin C.

    2017-09-01

    Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

  11. Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (Orion)

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana L.; Bigler, Mark A.

    2017-01-01

    NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. To determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators, and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the

  12. Seeking potential contributions to future carbon budget in conterminous US forests considering disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Fangmin; Pan, Yude; Birdsey, Richard A.; Chen, Jing M.; Dugan, Alexa

    2017-11-01

    Currently, US forests constitute a large carbon sink, comprising about 9 % of the global terrestrial carbon sink. Wildfire is the most significant disturbance influencing carbon dynamics in US forests. Our objective is to estimate impacts of climate change, CO2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition on the future net biome productivity (NBP) of US forests until the end of twenty-first century under a range of disturbance conditions. We designate three forest disturbance scenarios under one future climate scenario to evaluate factor impacts for the future period (2011-2100): (1) no wildfires occur but forests continue to age (Saging), (2) no wildfires occur and forest ages are fixed in 2010 (Sfixed_nodis), and (3) wildfires occur according to a historical pattern, consequently changing forest age (Sdis_age_change). Results indicate that US forests remain a large carbon sink in the late twenty-first century under the Sfixed_nodis scenario; however, they become a carbon source under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios. During the period of 2011 to 2100, climate is projected to have a small direct effect on NBP, while atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition have large positive effects on NBP regardless of the future climate and disturbance scenarios. Meanwhile, responses to past disturbances under the Sfixed_nodis scenario increase NBP regardless of the future climate scenarios. Although disturbance effects on NBP under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios decrease with time, both scenarios experience an increase in NBP prior to the 2050s and then a decrease in NBP until the end of the twenty-first century. This study indicates that there is potential to increase or at least maintain the carbon sink of conterminous US forests at the current level if future wildfires are reduced and age structures are maintained at a productive mix. The effects of CO2 on the future carbon sink may overwhelm effects of other factors at the end of the twenty

  13. Assessment of Wind Energy Potential in Golestan Province of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Hashemi-Tilehnoee

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Renewable energy sources are estimated to have a thriving future in many countries as well as Iran. The aim of this work is the evaluation of wind energy potentiality for the five counties of Golestan province in the northern region of Iran. A long term data source, consisting of  30 years in Gorgan, 22 years in Gonbade-e Qabus, 21 years in Maraveh Tappeh, 9 years in Aliabad, and 7 years in Bandar-e Turkaman of eight-hourly mean wind data, was adopted and analyzed. Mean wind power based on quantified data, Weibull distribution function, the relative percentage error (RPE and wind direction between obtaining values of wind power has been considered. According to these data, it was found that the numerical values of the shape parameter and scale parameter for Golestan varied a tight range. Annual values of ‘‘k’’ ranged from 2.7 to 4.7 where it is constant in different elevation because of better performance of this method in estimating wind energy potential, while annual values of ‘‘c’’ were in the range of 2.6 m/s in 10 m and 7.6 m/s in 40 m. Wind power densities have been estimated and relatively low for large wind turbines. The consequences indicate that in some months Maraveh Tappeh and Bandar-e Turkaman has best wind energy potential, as class 2, in order to establish some small wind turbine models for the sustainable development of Golestan province. Article History: Received Sept 13, 2015; Received in revised form Dec 27, 2015; Accepted January 17, 2016; Available online How to Cite This Article: Babayani, D., Khaleghi, M. and Hashemi-Tilehnoee, M. (2016 Assessment of Wind Energy Potential in Golestan Province of Iran. Int. Journal of Renewable Energy Development, 5(1, 25-31. http://dx.doi.org/10.14710/ijred.5.1.25-31 

  14. Future teachers’ perception on the assessing systems for their learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Víctor Manuel López Pator

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper is aimed at analysing the students’ perception on assessment and grading systems, instruments and techniques used in Teacher Education (TE. In order to determine the current situation for this assessment in TE a questionnaire containing four subscales was developed with a high reliability degree. Data obtained are applied to a simple of 635 students from 7 different colleges and analysed with both descriptive and inferential statistics using single-factor ANOVA. The outcomes show that assessing practices oriented towards learning are still minority practices in TE. On the other hand, the existence of so many significant differences between Primary Teacher Education and Secondary Teacher Education is worrisome. The analyses also suggest there are few subjects containing assessing styles oriented towards learning, although they include very varied and rich strategies.

  15. A multi-level strategy for anticipating future glacier lake formation and associated hazard potentials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Frey

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available In the course of glacier retreat, new glacier lakes can develop. As such lakes can be a source of natural hazards, strategies for predicting future glacier lake formation are important for an early planning of safety measures. In this article, a multi-level strategy for the identification of overdeepened parts of the glacier beds and, hence, sites with potential future lake formation, is presented. At the first two of the four levels of this strategy, glacier bed overdeepenings are estimated qualitatively and over large regions based on a digital elevation model (DEM and digital glacier outlines. On level 3, more detailed and laborious models are applied for modeling the glacier bed topography over smaller regions; and on level 4, special situations must be investigated in-situ with detailed measurements such as geophysical soundings. The approaches of the strategy are validated using historical data from Trift Glacier, where a lake formed over the past decade. Scenarios of future glacier lakes are shown for the two test regions Aletsch and Bernina in the Swiss Alps. In the Bernina region, potential future lake outbursts are modeled, using a GIS-based hydrological flow routing model. As shown by a corresponding test, the ASTER GDEM and the SRTM DEM are both suitable to be used within the proposed strategy. Application of this strategy in other mountain regions of the world is therefore possible as well.

  16. Virtual water content of temperate cereals and maize: Present and potential future patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fader, Marianela; Rost, Stefanie; Müller, Christoph; Bondeau, Alberte; Gerten, Dieter

    2010-04-01

    SummaryKnowledge of the virtual water content (VWC) of crops and especially its possible future developments is helpful for improvements in water productivity and water management, which are necessary at global scale due to rising demand for food, the necessity to ease present and future water scarcity, and the reduction of poverty. Using a dynamic global vegetation and water balance model (LPJmL), this study quantifies the VWC of two of the most important crop types worldwide, temperate cereals and maize, at high spatial resolution (0.5°). We analyzed present conditions (1999-2003) and also for the first time also for scenarios of future climate and increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations (2041-2070; HadCM3, ECHAM5 and CCSM3 climate models, A2 emissions scenario). VWC presently differs significantly among regions: highest values are common in large parts of Africa (>2 m 3 kg -1), and lowest values were found e.g. for Central Europe (South Africa, Argentina, Australia and South East Asia—are projected to become less water efficient (higher VWC) for at least one of the crop types. CO 2 fertilisation was simulated to generally reduce VWC, though realisation of this effect in the field will depend, for example, on the intensity of nutrient management in the future. The potentially adverse future changes in VWC found here pose a challenge to water management efforts and eventually global trade policies.

  17. Potential impact of the future pig welfare policy in Europe on the Spanish sector

    OpenAIRE

    Borrisser-Pairó,, Francesc; Kallas, Zein; Panella Riera, Nuria; Avena, Maria; Ibáñez, Miguel; Oliver, Maria Angels; Gil Roig, José María

    2015-01-01

    Castration in pig production is mainly performed to avoid boar taint and for management purposes. The European Commission is considering a future ban on surgical pig castration by 2018 which may affect markets and consumers preferences. The aim of this study was to assess the opinions and attitudes of Spanish stakeholders from the whole pork chain regarding this policy change. Four focus groups in Barcelona and Madrid with 26 participants were carried out with representatives of farmers, the ...

  18. Increasing potential risk of a global aquatic invader in Europe in contrast to other continents under future climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xuan; Guo, Zhongwei; Ke, Zunwei; Wang, Supen; Li, Yiming

    2011-03-30

    Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop wide-ranging and effective control measures according to predicted

  19. Self-Assessment in Librarianship: Current Practices and Future Possibilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ania Dymarz

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The authors of this qualitative study set out to investigate self-assessment practices within the library profession. The researchers conducted semi-structured interviews with a purposeful sample of nine librarians coming from a range of library settings and possessing a diversity of library experience. Interviews were then transcribed and coded in NVIVO to identify emergent themes. This paper details some of the results of that study, highlighting motivations, limitations, and strategies with regard to self-assessment. The findings present a summary of a range of approaches to the practice of assessment as reported by the interviewees. One area of possible growth for our profession, as highlighted by the findings, is in the development of peer networks as a support for the individual practice of self-assessment. While the results of this small case study cannot be generalized, the authors hope these preliminary findings can open up the conversation around self-assessment both for individual librarians and for those librarians and managers working to shape their workplace culture.

  20. Service Quality and Customer Satisfaction: An Assessment and Future Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernon, Peter; Nitecki, Danuta A.; Altman, Ellen

    1999-01-01

    Reviews the literature of library and information science to examine issues related to service quality and customer satisfaction in academic libraries. Discusses assessment, the application of a business model to higher education, a multiple constituency approach, decision areas regarding service quality, resistance to service quality, and future…

  1. Research Agenda: Priorities for Future Research in Second Language Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoynoff, Stephen

    2012-01-01

    In a recent state-of-the-art (SoA) article (Stoynoff 2009), I reviewed some of the trends in language assessment research and considered them in light of validation activities associated with four widely used international measures of L2 English ability. This Thinking Allowed article presents an opportunity to revisit the four broad areas of L2…

  2. EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS IN EXPOSURE SCIENCE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure is the contact between a stressor and a human or ecological receptor. Risk analysis step in which receptor interaction with the exposure stressor of concern is evaluated. To assess exposure to a particular stressor we need to know - Properties of the stressor; Sources, p...

  3. Teaching Languages to Future Health Professionals: A Needs Assessment Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepetit, Daniel; Cichocki, Wladyslaw

    2002-01-01

    Presents the results of a needs assessment study carried out with university students who were preparing to work as health professionals. Questionnaire data gauged the students' expectations for language courses intended specifically for their areas of specialization. Analysis follows a multidimensional approach and examines profiles of the…

  4. An analytic framework to assess future electricity options in Kosovo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kittner, Noah; Dimco, Hilda; Azemi, Visar; Tairyan, Evgenia; Kammen, Daniel M.

    2016-10-01

    We have developed an analytic platform to analyze the electricity options, costs, and impacts for Kosovo, a nation that is a critical part of the debate over centralized versus distributed electricity generation and the role of fossil fuels versus cleaner electricity options to meet growing demands for power. We find that a range of alternatives exists to meet present supply constraints all at a lower cost than constructing a proposed 600 MW coal plant. The options include energy efficiency measures, combinations of solar PV, wind, hydropower, and biomass, and the introduction of natural gas. A 30 EUR ton-1 shadow price on CO2 increases costs of coal generation by at least 330 million EUR. The results indicate that financing a new coal plant is the most expensive pathway to meet future electricity demand.

  5. Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emanuel, Kerry

    2017-11-01

    We estimate, for current and future climates, the annual probability of areally averaged hurricane rain of Hurricane Harvey's magnitude by downscaling large numbers of tropical cyclones from three climate reanalyses and six climate models. For the state of Texas, we estimate that the annual probability of 500 mm of area-integrated rainfall was about 1% in the period 1981–2000 and will increase to 18% over the period 2081–2100 under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 representative concentration pathway 8.5. If the frequency of such event is increasingly linearly between these two periods, then in 2017 the annual probability would be 6%, a sixfold increase since the late 20th century.

  6. Potential Impact of the National Plan for Future Electric Power Supply on Air Quality in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shim, C.; Hong, J.

    2014-12-01

    Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) announced the national plan for Korea's future electric power supply (2013 - 2027) in 2013. According to the plan, the national demand for electricity will be increased by 60% compared to that of 2010 and primary energy sources for electric generation will still lean on the fossil fuels such as petroleum, LNG, and coal, which would be a potential threat to air quality of Korea. This study focused on two subjects: (1) How the spatial distribution of the primary air pollutant's emissions (i.e., NOx, SOx, CO, PM) will be changed and (2) How the primary emission changes will influence on the national ambient air quality including ozone in 2027. We used GEOS-Chem model simulation with modification of Korean emissions inventory (Clean Air Policy Support System (CAPSS)) to simulate the current and future air quality in Korea. The national total emissions of CO, NOx, SOx, PM in year 2027 will be increased by 3%, 8%, 13%, 2%, respectively compared to 2010 and there are additional concern that the future location of the power plants will be closer to the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), where there are approximately 20 million population vulnerable to the potentially worsened air quality. While there are slight increase of concentration of CO, NOx, SOx, and PM in 2027, the O3 concentration is expected to be similar to the level of 2010. Those results may imply the characteristics of air pollution in East Asia such as potentially severe O3 titration and poorer O3/CO or O3/NOx ratio. Furthermore, we will discuss on the impact of transboundary pollution transport from China in the future, which is one of the large factors to control the air quality of Korea.

  7. Energy Saving Potential of PCMs in Buildings under Future Climate Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdo Abdullah Ahmed Gassar

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Energy consumption reduction under changing climate conditions is a major challenge in buildings design, where excessive energy consumption creates an economic and environmental burden. Improving thermal performance of the buildings through support applying phase change material (PCM is a promising strategy for reducing building energy consumption under future climate change. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the energy saving potentials in buildings under future climate conditions in the humid and snowy regions in the hot continental and humid subtropical climates of the east Asia (Seoul, Tokyo and Hong Kong when various PCMs with different phase change temperatures are applied to a lightweight building envelope. Methodology in this work is implemented in two phases: firstly, investigation of energy saving potentials in buildings through inclusion of three types of PCMs with different phase temperatures into the building envelop separately and use weather file in the present (2017; and, secondly, evaluation of the effect of future climate change on the performance of PCMs by analyzing energy saving potentials of PCMs with 2020, 2050 and 2080 weather data. The results show that the inclusion of PCM into the building envelope is a promising strategy to increase the energy performance in buildings during both heating and cooling seasons in Seoul, Tokyo and Hong Kong under future climate conditions. The energy savings achieved by using PCMs in those regions are electricity savings of 4.48–8.21%, 3.81–9.69%, and 1.94–5.15%, and gas savings of 1.65–16.59%, 7.60–61.76%, and 62.07–93.33% in Seoul, Tokyo and Hong Kong, respectively, for the years 2017, 2020, 2050 and 2080. In addition, BioPCM and RUBITHERMPCM are the most efficient for improving thermal performance and saving energy in buildings in the tested regions and years.

  8. The potential benefit of pre-operative assessment of amputation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The potential benefit of pre-operative assessment of amputation wound healing potential in peripheral vascular disease. M. Mars, R. P. Mills, J. V. Robbs. Abstract. Choosing the most distal amputation level that will heal is difficult in patients with peripheral vascular disease. From 1984 to 1988,965 patients underwent 1 563 ...

  9. Dynamic Assessment, Potential Giftedness and Mathematics Achievement in Elementary School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popa, Nicoleta Laura; Pauc, Ramona Loredana

    2015-01-01

    Dynamic assessment is currently discussed in educational literature as one of the most promising practices in stimulating learning among various groups of students, including gifted and potentially gifted students. The present study investigates effects of dynamic assessment on mathematics achievement among elementary school students, with…

  10. Quantifying the effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application to future flood risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Youhei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

    2018-01-01

    This study represents the first attempt to quantify the effects of autonomous adaptation on the projection of global flood hazards and to assess future flood risk by including this effect. A vulnerability scenario, which varies according to the autonomous adaptation effect for conventional disaster mitigation efforts, was developed based on historical vulnerability values derived from flood damage records and a river inundation simulation. Coupled with general circulation model outputs and future socioeconomic scenarios, potential future flood fatalities and economic loss were estimated. By including the effect of autonomous adaptation, our multimodel ensemble estimates projected a 2.0% decrease in potential flood fatalities and an 821% increase in potential economic losses by 2100 under the highest emission scenario together with a large population increase. Vulnerability changes reduced potential flood consequences by 64%–72% in terms of potential fatalities and 28%–42% in terms of potential economic losses by 2100. Although socioeconomic changes made the greatest contribution to the potential increased consequences of future floods, about a half of the increase of potential economic losses was mitigated by autonomous adaptation. There is a clear and positive relationship between the global temperature increase from the pre-industrial level and the estimated mean potential flood economic loss, while there is a negative relationship with potential fatalities due to the autonomous adaptation effect. A bootstrapping analysis suggests a significant increase in potential flood fatalities (+5.7%) without any adaptation if the temperature increases by 1.5 °C–2.0 °C, whereas the increase in potential economic loss (+0.9%) was not significant. Our method enables the effects of autonomous adaptation and additional adaptation efforts on climate-induced hazards to be distinguished, which would be essential for the accurate estimation of the cost of adaptation to

  11. The potential of tidal barrages and lagoons to manage future coastal flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prime, Thomas; Wolf, Judith; Lyddon, Charlotte; Plater, Andrew; Brown, Jennifer

    2017-04-01

    In the face of a changing climate, adaptation and mitigation measures are important for coastal communities that seek to maintain their resilience to extreme events. Measures that can be classed as being both adaptation and mitigation can doubly contribute to this. Tide barrages and lagoons have the capacity to generate electricity from the rise and fall of the tide, which over the assets lifetime would contribute significantly towards emission reduction targets and towards a low carbon economy. In addition to electricity generation, the barrage or lagoon can also act as a flood defence during extreme events. This means that coastal communities protected by the barrage will have adaptation benefits to the increasing frequency of storm surges that are a result of sea-level rise. Finally, the barrage also has the potential to act as a transport link with vehicles able to cross, reducing travel times and emissions. The research project RISES-AM focuses on the implications of the higher end climate scenarios, particularly those with a global average warming that is greater than 2 ⁰C with respect to pre-industrial temperatures. RISES-AM aims to produce a better quantification of the impacts and vulnerabilities associated with these high end climate scenarios, and show that adaptation to them is possible at an affordable cost when compared to the increase in risk resulting from them. We investigated the physical and economic impact of extreme flood events of on the Mersey Estuary and surrounding areas. It is thought the Mersey Estuary is likely to be more sensitive to changes in forcing factors in the future than in the past where industrial impacts where the main drivers of change. Extreme events were simulated, for the present day and in 2100 where high impact emission scenarios have resulted in SLR ranging from 0.71 m to 1.80 m depending on the higher end emission scenario selected. If built, the barrage in the Estuary or lagoon in surrounding areas such as the

  12. Multidimensional assessment of voice quality of future elite vocal performers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muresan RODICA-ELENA

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and objective: This study correlates the Singing Voice Handicap Index (SVHI scores with videostrobolaryngoscopy and acoustic analysis in healthy professional singers, as a measure of self-perceived vocal health, versus actual pathology diagnosed during examination by stroboscopy, or by modification at the acoustic voice evaluation. The objectives of the study were to measure the strength of self-assessment among professional singers and to determine whether there is a benefit of combining SVHI, acoustic analysis and videostrobolaryngoscopy for the routine assessment of singers who have no obvious singing voice problem. Method: Prospective cross-sectional study. The voice quality of 40 students of the Music Academy, Cluj-Napoca, was assessed by means of a multidimensional test battery containing a singing voice handicap index (SVHI, as well as SVHI-10, videolaryngostroboscopy, maximum phonation time on vowel /a/, S/Z ratio, Jitter, Shimmer and NHR (Harmonic Noise Ratio, at lowest, highest and conversational frequency. Additionally, in a questionnaire on daily habits has been recorded for the participants, covering the prevalence of smoking, eating habits, and vocal abuse. The correlation between SVHI scores, acoustic analysis and pathologic findings seen on videostrobolaryngoscopy was analyzed using linear regression and serial t tests to draw the conclusions of this study. Results: Both SVHI and SVHI-10 scores showed, as previously expected, normal values for healthy singers (SVHI-10 being the singers preferred metric. However, although all participants self-identified as healthy, laryngeal abnormalities were relatively common. Acoustic analysis of students voices identified relative instability of pitches, problems with F0 variation, TMF (Maximum Phonation Time and S/Z ratio. No Significant correlation (P = 0.9501 between SVHI scores, acoustic analysis and videostrobolaryngoscopy findings were shown by the linear regression

  13. The Future of Preschool Prevention, Assessment, and Intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudziak, Jim; Archangeli, Christopher

    2017-07-01

    Preschoolers are in the most rapid period of brain development. Environment shapes the structure and function of the developing brain. Promoting brain health requires cultivation of healthy environments at home, school, and in the community. This improves the emotional-behavioral and physical health of all children, can prevent problems in children at risk, and can alter the trajectory of children already suffering. For clinicians, this starts with assessing and treating the entire family, equipping parents with the principles of parent management training, and incorporating wellness prescriptions for nutrition, physical activity, music, and mindfulness. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. The potential impact of climate change on seasonal snow in New Zealand: part II—industry vulnerability and future snowmaking potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendrikx, J.; Hreinsson, E. Ö.

    2012-12-01

    Seasonal snow in New Zealand is likely to be subject to substantial change due to the impacts of climate change. These changes will have wide ranging impacts on the New Zealand's economy through the energy, agricultural and tourism sectors. In this paper, we assess the impact of climate change, at a micro-scale for a selection of ski area locations in New Zealand. Where available, we have used current observations of snow depth to calibrate the snow model output for the current climate. We consider the change in the number of days with snow depths exceeding 0.30 m, `snow-days', at each of these locations for the 2030-2049 (mid-point reference 2040) and 2080-2099 (mid-point reference 2090) time periods, for the three different emission scenarios (B1, A1B and A1FI). These future scenarios are compared to simulations of current, 1980-1999 (mid-point reference 1990), number of snow-days at these locations. We consider both an average year in each 20-year period, as well as a `worst-case' year. At each ski area, we consider an upper and lower elevation site. Depending on the elevation and location of the specific site, our analysis shows that there will be a reduction in the number of snow-days in nearly all of the future scenarios and time periods. When we consider a worst-case or minimum snow year in the 1990s, the number of snow-days at each site ranges from 0 to 229, while by the 2040s, it ranges from 0 to 187 (B1), 0 to 183 (A1B) and 0 to 176 (A1FI). By the 2090s the number of snow-days ranges from 0 to 155 (B1), 0 to 90 (A1B) and 0 to 74 (A1FI). We also simulate the hourly future climate for the 2040s and 2090s, for the A1FI scenario, to enable calculations of the potential available time for snowmaking in these two future time periods. We use simulated temperatures and humidity to calculate the total potential snowmaking hours in the future climates. For the snowmaking analysis, only a worst-case year in each time period, rather than an average year, was used to

  15. Water scarcity assessments in the past, present, and future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Junguo; Yang, Hong; Gosling, Simon N.; Kummu, Matti; Flörke, Martina; Pfister, Stephan; Hanasaki, Naota; Wada, Yoshihide; Zhang, Xinxin; Zheng, Chunmiao; Alcamo, Joseph; Oki, Taikan

    2017-06-01

    Water scarcity has become a major constraint to socio-economic development and a threat to livelihood in increasing parts of the world. Since the late 1980s, water scarcity research has attracted much political and public attention. We here review a variety of indicators that have been developed to capture different characteristics of water scarcity. Population, water availability, and water use are the key elements of these indicators. Most of the progress made in the last few decades has been on the quantification of water availability and use by applying spatially explicit models. However, challenges remain on appropriate incorporation of green water (soil moisture), water quality, environmental flow requirements, globalization, and virtual water trade in water scarcity assessment. Meanwhile, inter- and intra-annual variability of water availability and use also calls for assessing the temporal dimension of water scarcity. It requires concerted efforts of hydrologists, economists, social scientists, and environmental scientists to develop integrated approaches to capture the multi-faceted nature of water scarcity.

  16. Assessing Future Hydrological Changes in the Tana River Basin, Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Rhosanna

    2017-04-01

    Changes in precipitation will be one of the most significant factors in determining the overall impact of global climate change but are also one of the most uncertain and difficult to project. The reliability of global climate models (GCMs) for predicting changes in rainfall is particularly concerning for East Africa. This research focuses on Kenya's Tana River Basin and aims to project the impacts of climate change upon the hydrology in order to inform national climate change adaptation plans. The Tana basin has been identified as crucial for Kenya's development, with increased irrigated agriculture and additional dams planned. The area is also important for biodiversity and contains already-threatened ecosystems and endemic species. Kenya is already a water-scarce country and demand for water is expected to increase in the future as the country develops. Therefore, examining changes to precipitation with climate change is vital. The WaterWorld Policy Support System (http://www.policysupport.org/waterworld), a physically-based hydrological model, has been used to determine annual and monthly changes in hydrology. WaterWorld utilises the WorldClim (Hijmans et al., 2005) climate projections for the latest generation of climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) to characterise the temperature and precipitation changes. In order to better understand the high uncertainties in projections of climate change, the full range of latest emissions scenarios (the representative concentration pathways or RCPs) were used to force the WaterWorld model. The WorldClim baseline values were evaluated by comparing them to observations and were found to correctly represent the annual cycle of precipitation. In addition, the CRU TS3.22 data (Harris et al., 2014) have also been examined and provide a valuable comparison to the WorldClim dataset. These simulations encompass a broad range of climate projections, but show a general trend towards

  17. Developmental Potential of Professional Test as a Method of Training Future Teachers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neumoeva-Kolchedantseva E.V.

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to studying the developmental perspectives of the method of professional test. It offers an understanding of the professional test as a method of «locally immersing» students in professional activities at the stage of university training. It also describes an experience of evaluating professional tests aimed at mastering work actions defined in the professional standard for teachers. The article examines research data on the impact of the professional test on the development of professional competencies (work actions in future teachers. The research involved 50 third- and fourth-year students of the Tyumen State University majoring in «Teacher Education» («Primary School Education».The results confirm the positive dynamics of work actions after the completion of professional tests, which points to the developmental potential of the professional test as a method of training future teachers.

  18. Teacher assessment of students' motivation and learning potentials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gligorović Milica

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Perceiving students' ability to acquire and apply academic knowledge and skills is a prerequisite for individualizing instruction and predicting academic achievement. The main aim of this research was to determine the relation between teacher assessment of students' motivation and learning potentials, and student's academic achievement in Serbian language and mathematics. The sample consisted of 111 students attending the third and fourth grade of elementary school, of both genders, aged between 8 and 10.8. Intellectual abilities were assessed by Standard Progressive Matrices, while motivation for learning and learning difficulties were assessed by Teacher Assessment of Motivation and Learning Potentials rating scale. No significant correlation was determined between the scale results and the students' age and grade, while gender differences were significant in favor of the girls in motivation (p=0.014 and reading and writing (p=0.039. Students' intelligence was a significant factor in teacher assessment of motivation for learning (p=0.023 and learning difficulties (p=0.004. Distribution of mean values of grades in Serbian language and mathematics significantly correlated with the results of Teacher Assessment of Motivation and Learning Potentials (p≤0,000. Systematization of data on students' abilities and limitations, based on teacher assessment, can significantly contribute to the application of ecological model of abilities and skills assessment.

  19. Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-12-15

    This report documents the future human actions, FHA, considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Site (see further the Main report /SKB 2011/). The purpose of this report is to provide an account of general considerations concerning FHA, the methodology applied in SR-Site to assess FHA, the aspects of FHA needed to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository and to select and analyse representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis. The main focus of this report is a time period when institutional control has ceased to be effective, thereby permitting inadvertent intrusion. However, a brief discussion of the earlier period when the repository has been closed, sealed and continuously kept under institutional control is also provided. General The potential exposure to large quantities of radiotoxic material is an inescapable consequence of the deposition of spent nuclear fuel in a final repository, and consequently intrusion into the repository needs to be considered in repository design and safety assessment. In accordance with ICRP recommendations /ICRP 2000/, intrusion in the post-closure phase of institutional control and beyond is primarily prevented through the design of the repository. In addition to that there will presumably continue to be safeguards measures, preservation of information (record keeping) and possibly some sort of markers placed at the site. During the institutional control period, activities at the site have to be restricted or directed if they have the potential to interfere with or hinder surveillance of the site, but this does not necessarily rule out all forms of access to the area. Also the fact that the repository contains fissile materials is an important aspect. Control of safeguards measures will most likely be upheld by national as well as international agencies. Furthermore, the

  20. Assessment of the ATV-1 Re-Entry Observation Campaign for Future Re-Entry Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lips, T.; Lohle, S.; Marynowsky, T.; Rees, D.; Stenbeak-Nielsen, H. C.; Beks, M. L.; Hatton, J.

    2010-09-01

    This paper summarizes the midterm results of the currently ongoing ESA study “Assessment of the ATV-1 Reentry Observation Campaign for Future Re-entry Missions”. The primary objective of this study is to investigate the data obtained during a joint ESA/NASA airborne observation campaign of the destructive re-entry of ATV-1 Jules Verne which occurred on September 29, 2008. The presented results are focused on spectroscopic fragment characterization(material identification), frame-by-frame fragment tracking(manual and automatic) for various video recordings, 3D triangulation of the tracked fragments, and fragment propagation until complete demise or ground impact, including the actual size and location of the ATV-1 debris footprint. Fragment propagation analyses comprise also the derivation of aerodynamic fragment properties and potential delta velocities. These parameters are of high importance for the re-entry safety analysis for ATV-2 Johannes Kepler.

  1. Anti-tick biological control agents: assessment and future perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samish, M.; Ginsberg, H.S.; Glazer, I.; Bowman, Alan. S.; Nuttall, Patricia A.

    2008-01-01

    Widespread and increasing resistance to most available acaracides threatens both global livestock industries and public health. This necessitates better understanding of ticks and the diseases they transmit in the development of new control strategies. Ticks: Biology, Disease and Control is written by an international collection of experts and covers in-depth information on aspects of the biology of the ticks themselves, various veterinary and medical tick-borne pathogens, and aspects of traditional and potential new control methods. A valuable resource for graduate students, academic researchers and professionals, the book covers the whole gamut of ticks and tick-borne diseases from microsatellites to satellite imagery and from exploiting tick saliva for therapeutic drugs to developing drugs to control tick populations. It encompasses the variety of interconnected fields impinging on the economically important and biologically fascinating phenomenon of ticks, the diseases they transmit and methods of their control.

  2. Conservation assessments in climate change scenarios: spatial perspectives for present and future in two Pristidactylus (Squamata: Leiosauridae) lizards from Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minoli, Ignacio; Avila, Luciano Javier

    2017-02-26

    The consequences of global climate change can already be seen in many physical and biological systems and these effects could change the distribution of suitable areas for a wide variety of organisms to the middle of this century. We analyzed the current habitat use and we projected the suitable area of present conditions into the geographical space of future scenarios (2050), to assess and quantify whether future climate change would affect the distribution and size of suitable environments in two Pristidactylus lizard species. Comparing the habitat use and future forecasts of the two studied species, P. achalensis showed a more restricted use of available resource units (RUs) and a moderate reduction of the potential future area. On the contrary, P. nigroiugulus uses more available RUs and has a considerable area decrease for both future scenarios. These results suggest that both species have a moderately different trend towards reducing available area of suitable habitats, the persistent localities for both 2050 CO2 concentration models, and in the available RUs used. We discussed the relation between size and use of the current habitat, changes in future projections along with the protected areas from present-future and the usefulness of these results in conservation plans. This work illustrates how ectothermic organisms might have to face major changes in their availability suitable areas as a consequence of the effect of future climate change.

  3. Qualitative assessment of patients’ attitudes and expectations towards BCIs and implications for future technology development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silke eSchicktanz

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Brain-Computer-Interfaces (BCIs are important for the next generation of neuro-prosthesis innovations. Only few pilot projects have tested patients’ abilities to control BCIs as well as their satisfaction with the offered technologies. On the one hand, little is known about patients’ moral attitudes towards the benefit-risk-ratio of BCIs as well as their needs, priorities, and expectations. On the other hand, ethics experts intensively discuss the general risks of BCIs as well as the limits of neuro-enhancement. To our knowledge, we present here the first qualitative interview study with ten chronic patients matching the potential user categories for motor and communication BCIs to assess their practical and moral attitudes towards this technology. The interviews reveal practical and moral attitudes towards motor BCIs that can impact future technology development. We discuss our empirical findings on patients’ perspectives and compare them to neuroscientists’ and ethicists’ perspectives. This analysis indicates only partial overlap between the potential users’ and the experts’ assessments of BCI-technology. It points out the importance of considering the needs and desires of the targeted patient group. Based on our findings, we suggest a multi-fold approach to the development of clinical BCIs, rooted in the participatory technology-development. We conclude that clinical BCI development needs to be explored in a disease-related and culturally sensitive way.

  4. 17 CFR 1.15 - Risk assessment reporting requirements for futures commission merchants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment reporting... Related Reporting Requirements § 1.15 Risk assessment reporting requirements for futures commission... pursuant to § 240.17h-2T of this title, or such other risk assessment regulations as the Securities and...

  5. 17 CFR 1.14 - Risk assessment recordkeeping requirements for futures commission merchants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment recordkeeping... Related Reporting Requirements § 1.14 Risk assessment recordkeeping requirements for futures commission... Material Affiliated Person, pursuant to § 240.17h-1T of this title, or such other risk assessment...

  6. Assessment of the Economic Potential of Distributed Wind in Colorado, Minnesota, and New York

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCabe, Kevin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin O. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mooney, Meghan E. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2018-01-03

    This work seeks to identify current and future spatial distributions of economic potential for behind-the-meter distributed wind, serving primarily rural or suburban homes, farms, and manufacturing facilities in Colorado, Minnesota, and New York. These states were identified by technical experts based on their current favorability for distributed wind deployment. We use NREL's Distributed Wind Market Demand Model (dWind) (Lantz et al. 2017; Sigrin et al. 2016) to identify and rank counties in each of the states by their overall and per capita potential. From this baseline assessment, we also explore how and where improvements in cost, performance, and other market sensitivities affect distributed wind potential.

  7. A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. P. Guillod

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of risk-based approaches often requires large sets of extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present such a large set of hydro-meteorological time series for recent past and future conditions for the United Kingdom based on weather@home 2, a modelling framework consisting of a global climate model (GCM driven by observed or projected sea surface temperature (SST and sea ice which is downscaled to 25 km over the European domain by a regional climate model (RCM. Sets of 100 time series are generated for each of (i a historical baseline (1900–2006, (ii five near-future scenarios (2020–2049 and (iii five far-future scenarios (2070–2099. The five scenarios in each future time slice all follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5 and sample the range of sea surface temperature and sea ice changes from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. Validation of the historical baseline highlights good performance for temperature and potential evaporation, but substantial seasonal biases in mean precipitation, which are corrected using a linear approach. For extremes in low precipitation over a long accumulation period ( > 3 months and shorter-duration high precipitation (1–30 days, the time series generally represents past statistics well. Future projections show small precipitation increases in winter but large decreases in summer on average, leading to an overall drying, consistently with the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09 but larger in magnitude than the latter. Both drought and high-precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and

  8. A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillod, Benoit P.; Jones, Richard G.; Dadson, Simon J.; Coxon, Gemma; Bussi, Gianbattista; Freer, James; Kay, Alison L.; Massey, Neil R.; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Wallom, David C. H.; Allen, Myles R.; Hall, Jim W.

    2018-01-01

    Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of risk-based approaches often requires large sets of extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present such a large set of hydro-meteorological time series for recent past and future conditions for the United Kingdom based on weather@home 2, a modelling framework consisting of a global climate model (GCM) driven by observed or projected sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice which is downscaled to 25 km over the European domain by a regional climate model (RCM). Sets of 100 time series are generated for each of (i) a historical baseline (1900-2006), (ii) five near-future scenarios (2020-2049) and (iii) five far-future scenarios (2070-2099). The five scenarios in each future time slice all follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and sample the range of sea surface temperature and sea ice changes from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. Validation of the historical baseline highlights good performance for temperature and potential evaporation, but substantial seasonal biases in mean precipitation, which are corrected using a linear approach. For extremes in low precipitation over a long accumulation period ( > 3 months) and shorter-duration high precipitation (1-30 days), the time series generally represents past statistics well. Future projections show small precipitation increases in winter but large decreases in summer on average, leading to an overall drying, consistently with the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) but larger in magnitude than the latter. Both drought and high-precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in most regions

  9. The potential natural vegetation of eastern Africa distribution, conservation and future changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Breugel, Paulo

    Species and ecosystems are increasingly threatened by the human activities, while climate change projections show that eastern Africa may face considerable changes in temperature and rainfall regimes. These changes pose huge challenges for the prioritization and implementation of conservation...... and how this is likely to change under different climate change scenarios. Chapter 4 presents an environmental gap analysis to prioritize conservation efforts in eastern Africa, based on an evaluation of the environmental representativeness of protected areas and an assessment of the level of threat...... and sustainable management of the natural environment. There is therefore an urgent need for information that allow us to assess the current status of the region’s natural environment and to predict how this may change under future climates. This thesis aims to improve our knowledge on natural vegetation...

  10. Assessing the Impact of Saltwater Intrusion in the Carolinas under Future Climatic and Sea Level Conditions

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The goal of this research is to support coastal decision-makers in North Carolina and South Carolina by providing information about potential future precipitation...

  11. An Assessment of China's View an the Revolution in Military Affairs and Future Warfare

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Christian, Paul

    1998-01-01

    China's explosive economy has financed her recent modernization program. Not only is China modernizing her armed forces but many of her senior military authors are advocating a RMA and expounding on its potential value to future warfare...

  12. Beyond speculative robot ethics: A vision assessment study on the future of the robotic caretaker

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Plas, A.P. van der; Smits, M.; Wehrmann, C.

    2010-01-01

    In this article we develop a dialogue model for robot technology experts and designated users to discuss visions on the future of robotics in long-term care. Our vision assessment study aims for more distinguished and more informed visions on future robots. Surprisingly, our experiment also led to

  13. Assessment of Future Remnant Liver Function Using Hepatobiliary Scintigraphy in Patients Undergoing Major Liver Resection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Graaf, W.; van Lienden, K.P.; Dinant, S.; Roelofs, J.J.T.H.; Busch, O.R.C.; Gouma, D.J.; Bennink, R.J.; van Gulik, T.M.

    2010-01-01

    Tc-99m-mebrofenin hepatobiliary scintigraphy (HBS) was used as a quantitative method to evaluate liver function. The aim of this study was to compare future remnant liver function assessed by Tc-99m-mebrofenin hepatobiliary scintigraphy with future remnant liver volume in the prediction of liver

  14. Potential impact of climate change to the future streamflow of Yellow River Basin based on CMIP5 data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaoli; Zheng, Weifei; Ren, Liliang; Zhang, Mengru; Wang, Yuqian; Liu, Yi; Yuan, Fei; Jiang, Shanhu

    2018-02-01

    The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is the largest river basin in northern China, which has suffering water scarcity and drought hazard for many years. Therefore, assessments the potential impacts of climate change on the future streamflow in this basin is very important for local policy and planning on food security. In this study, based on the observations of 101 meteorological stations in YRB, equidistant CDF matching (EDCDFm) statistical downscaling approach was applied to eight climate models under two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model with 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution was developed based on downscaled fields for simulating streamflow in the future period over YRB. The results show that with the global warming trend, the annual streamflow will reduced about 10 % during the period of 2021-2050, compared to the base period of 1961-1990 in YRB. There should be suitable water resources planning to meet the demands of growing populations and future climate changing in this region.

  15. Projected future distribution of date palm and its potential use in alleviating micronutrient deficiency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shabani, Farzin; Kumar, Lalit; Nojoumian, Amir Hadi; Esmaeili, Atefeh; Toghyani, Mehdi

    2016-03-15

    Micronutrient deficiency develops when nutrient intake does not match nutritional requirements for maintaining healthy tissue and organ functions which may have long-ranging effects on health, learning ability and productivity. Inadequacy of iron, zinc and vitamin A are the most important micronutrient deficiencies. Consumption of a 100 g portion of date flesh from date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) has been reported to meet approximately half the daily dietary recommended intake of these micronutrients. This study investigated the potential distribution of P. dactylifera under future climates to address its potential long-term use as a food commodity to tackle micronutrient deficiencies in some developing countries. Modelling outputs indicated large shifts in areas conducive to date palm cultivation, based on global-scale alteration over the next 60 years. Most of the regions suffering from micronutrient deficiencies were projected to become highly conducive for date palm cultivation. These results could inform strategic planning by government and agricultural organizations by identifying areas to cultivate this nutritionally important crop in the future to support the alleviation of micronutrient deficiencies. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

  16. Probing features in inflaton potential and reionization history with future CMB space observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazra, Dhiraj Kumar; Paoletti, Daniela; Ballardini, Mario; Finelli, Fabio; Shafieloo, Arman; Smoot, George F.; Starobinsky, Alexei A.

    2018-02-01

    We consider the prospects of probing features in the primordial power spectrum with future Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) polarization measurements. In the scope of the inflationary scenario, such features in the spectrum can be produced by local non-smooth pieces in an inflaton potential (smooth and quasi-flat in general) which in turn may originate from fast phase transitions during inflation in other quantum fields interacting with the inflaton. They can fit some outliers in the CMB temperature power spectrum which are unaddressed within the standard inflationary ΛCDM model. We consider Wiggly Whipped Inflation (WWI) as a theoretical framework leading to improvements in the fit to the Planck 2015 temperature and polarization data in comparison with the standard inflationary models, although not at a statistically significant level. We show that some type of features in the potential within the WWI models, leading to oscillations in the primordial power spectrum that extend to intermediate and small scales can be constrained with high confidence (at 3σ or higher confidence level) by an instrument as the Cosmic ORigins Explorer (CORE). In order to investigate the possible confusion between inflationary features and footprints from the reionization era, we consider an extended reionization history with monotonic increase of free electrons with decrease in redshift. We discuss the present constraints on this model of extended reionization and future predictions with CORE. We also project, to what extent, this extended reionization can create confusion in identifying inflationary features in the data.

  17. Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akiko Hirata

    Full Text Available Pine wilt disease (PWD constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22. For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 and two time periods (2050s and 2070s. We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area. Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD.

  18. Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirata, Akiko; Nakamura, Katsunori; Nakao, Katsuhiro; Kominami, Yuji; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Ohashi, Haruka; Takano, Kohei Takenaka; Takeuchi, Wataru; Matsui, Tetsuya

    2017-01-01

    Pine wilt disease (PWD) constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22). For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area). Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD.

  19. Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Katsunori; Nakao, Katsuhiro; Kominami, Yuji; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Ohashi, Haruka; Takano, Kohei Takenaka; Takeuchi, Wataru; Matsui, Tetsuya

    2017-01-01

    Pine wilt disease (PWD) constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22). For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area). Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD. PMID:28797067

  20. 'Underutilised' agricultural land: its definitions, potential use for future biomass production and its environmental implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyake, Saori; Bargiel, Damian

    2017-04-01

    A growing bioeconomy and increased demand for biomass products on food, health, fibre, industrial products and energy require land resources for feedstock production. It has resulted in significant environmental and socio-economic challenges on a global scale. As a result, consideration of such effects of land use change (LUC) from biomass production (particularly for biofuel feedstock) has emerged as an important area of policy and research, and several potential solutions have been proposed to minimise such adverse LUC effects. One of these solutions is the use of lands that are not in production or not suitable for food crop production, such as 'marginal', 'degraded', 'abandoned' and 'surplus' agricultural lands for future biomass production. The terms referring to these lands are usually associated with the potential production of 'marginal crops', which can grow in marginal conditions (e.g. poor soil fertility, low rainfall, drought) without much water and agrochemical inputs. In our research, we referred to these lands as 'underutilised' agricultural land and attempted to define them for our case study areas located in Australia and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Our goal is to identify lands that can be used for future biomass production and to evaluate their environmental implications, particularly impacts related to biodiversity, water and soil at a landscape scale. The identification of these lands incorporates remote sensing and spatially explicit approaches. Our findings confirmed that there was no universal or single definition of the term 'underutilised' agricultural land as the definitions significantly vary by country and region depending not only on the biophysical environment but also political, institutional and socio-economic conditions. Moreover, our results highlighted that the environmental implications of production of biomass on 'underutilised' agricultural land for biomass production are highly controversial. Thus land use change

  1. Exploring the Potential for Sustainable Future Bioenergy Production in the Arkansas-White-Red River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baskaran, L.; Jager, H.; Kreig, J.

    2016-12-01

    Bioenergy production in the US has been projected to increase in the next few years and this has raised concerns over environmentally sustainable production. Specifically, there are concerns that managing lands to produce bioenergy feedstocks in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) may have impacts over the water quality in the streams draining these lands and hamper with efforts to reduce the size of the Gulf of Mexico's "Dead Zone" (hypoxic waters). However, with appropriate choice of feedstocks and good conservation practices, bioenergy production systems can be environmentally and economically sustainable. We evaluated opportunities for producing 2nd generation cellulosic feedstocks that are economically sustainable and improve water quality in the Arkansas-White-Red (AWR) river basin, which is major part of the MARB. We generated a future bioenergy landscape by downscaling county-scale projections of bioenergy crop production produced by an economic model, POLYSYS, at a market price of $60 per dry ton and a 1% annual yield increase. Our future bioenergy landscape includes perennial grasses (switchgrass and miscanthus), short-rotated woody crops (poplar and willow) and annual crops (high yield sorghum, sorghum stubble, corn stover and wheat straw). Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) we analyzed changes in water quality and quantity by simulating a baseline scenario with the current landscape (2014 land cover) and a future scenario with the bioenergy landscape. Our results over the AWR indicate decreases in median nutrient and sediment loadings from the baseline scenario. We also explored methods to evaluate if conservation practices (such as reducing fertilizer applications, incorporating filter strips, planting cover crops and moving to a no-till system) can improve water quality, while maintaining biomass yield. We created a series of SWAT simulations with varying levels of conservation practices by crop and present our methods towards

  2. An assessment of the future impact of alternative technologies on antibiotics markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nwokoro, Ejike; Leach, Ross; Årdal, Christine; Baraldi, Enrico; Ryan, Kellie; Plahte, Jens

    2016-01-01

    The increasing threat of antimicrobial resistance combined with the paucity of new classes of antibiotics represents a serious public health challenge. New treatment technologies could, in theory, have a significant impact on the future use of traditional antibiotics, be it by facilitating rational and responsible use or by product substitution in the existing antibiotics markets, including by reducing the incidence of bacterial infections through preventative approaches. The aim of this paper is to assess the potential of alternative technologies in reducing clinical use of and demand for antibiotics, and to briefly indicate which segments of the antibiotics market that might be impacted by these technologies. An initial mapping exercise to identify the alternative technologies was followed by a review of relevant published and grey literature (n = 52). We also carried out stakeholder engagement activities by a round-table discussion with infectious disease specialists and a multi-criteria decision analysis exercise with pharmaceutical industry experts. Ten alternative technologies were identified and analyzed for their potential impact on the antibiotics market. Of these, rapid point-of-care diagnostics, vaccines, fecal microbiota transplantation, and probiotics were considered to have a "high" or "medium" potential impact over a 10-20 year horizon. Therapeutic antibodies, antibiotic biomaterials, bacteriophages, antimicrobial nanoparticles, antimicrobial peptides, and anti-virulence materials were rated as having "low" potential impact. Despite the apparent potential of the most promising alternative technologies to reduce demand, that reduction will likely only happen in limited segments of the antibiotics market or, in the case of preventing community acquired streptococcal infections by vaccination, in a low-price generics market segment. Thus, alternative technologies are not expected to represent any disincentive to antibiotics developers. Finally, it

  3. Atlantic hurricanes and associated insurance loss potentials in future climate scenarios: limitations of high-resolution AGCM simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas F. Stocker

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC characteristics are among the more serious regional threats of global climate change. Therefore, a better understanding of how anthropogenic climate change may affect TCs and how these changes translate in socio-economic impacts is required. Here, we apply a TC detection and tracking method that was developed for ERA-40 data to time-slice experiments of two atmospheric general circulation models, namely the fifth version of the European Centre model of Hamburg model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany, T213 and the Japan Meteorological Agency/ Meteorological research Institute model (MRI, Tsukuba city, Japan, TL959. For each model, two climate simulations are available: a control simulation for present-day conditions to evaluate the model against observations, and a scenario simulation to assess future changes. The evaluation of the control simulations shows that the number of intense storms is underestimated due to the model resolution. To overcome this deficiency, simulated cyclone intensities are scaled to the best track data leading to a better representation of the TC intensities. Both models project an increased number of major hurricanes and modified trajectories in their scenario simulations. These changes have an effect on the projected loss potentials. However, these state-of-the-art models still yield contradicting results, and therefore they are not yet suitable to provide robust estimates of losses due to uncertainties in simulated hurricane intensity, location and frequency.

  4. The Physiology, Pathology, and Pharmacology of Voltage-Gated Calcium Channels and Their Future Therapeutic Potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamponi, Gerald W.; Striessnig, Joerg; Koschak, Alexandra

    2015-01-01

    Voltage-gated calcium channels are required for many key functions in the body. In this review, the different subtypes of voltage-gated calcium channels are described and their physiologic roles and pharmacology are outlined. We describe the current uses of drugs interacting with the different calcium channel subtypes and subunits, as well as specific areas in which there is strong potential for future drug development. Current therapeutic agents include drugs targeting L-type CaV1.2 calcium channels, particularly 1,4-dihydropyridines, which are widely used in the treatment of hypertension. T-type (CaV3) channels are a target of ethosuximide, widely used in absence epilepsy. The auxiliary subunit α2δ-1 is the therapeutic target of the gabapentinoid drugs, which are of value in certain epilepsies and chronic neuropathic pain. The limited use of intrathecal ziconotide, a peptide blocker of N-type (CaV2.2) calcium channels, as a treatment of intractable pain, gives an indication that these channels represent excellent drug targets for various pain conditions. We describe how selectivity for different subtypes of calcium channels (e.g., CaV1.2 and CaV1.3 L-type channels) may be achieved in the future by exploiting differences between channel isoforms in terms of sequence and biophysical properties, variation in splicing in different target tissues, and differences in the properties of the target tissues themselves in terms of membrane potential or firing frequency. Thus, use-dependent blockers of the different isoforms could selectively block calcium channels in particular pathologies, such as nociceptive neurons in pain states or in epileptic brain circuits. Of important future potential are selective CaV1.3 blockers for neuropsychiatric diseases, neuroprotection in Parkinson’s disease, and resistant hypertension. In addition, selective or nonselective T-type channel blockers are considered potential therapeutic targets in epilepsy, pain, obesity, sleep, and

  5. Assessing the Potential of Mathematics Textbooks to Promote Deep Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shield, Malcolm; Dole, Shelley

    2013-01-01

    Curriculum documents for mathematics emphasise the importance of promoting depth of knowledge rather than shallow coverage of the curriculum. In this paper, we report on a study that explored the analysis of junior secondary mathematics textbooks to assess their potential to assist in teaching and learning aimed at building and applying deep…

  6. Assessment of dairy wastewater treatment and its potential for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The extent of pollution of dairy wastewater treated in a septic tank and its potential for biogas production was investigated. Performance of the existing treatment system was assessed through characterization of both raw and treated effluents. From the analysis parameters likeChemical Oxygen Demand (COD), Biochemical ...

  7. Assessing the potential for biomass energy development in South Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roger C. Conner; Tim O. Adams; Tony G. Johnson

    2009-01-01

    An assessment of the potential for developing a sustainable biomass energy industry in South Carolina was conducted. Biomass as defined by Forest Inventory and Analysis is the aboveground dry weight of wood in the bole and limbs of live trees ≥1-inch diameter at breast height, and excludes tree foliage, seedlings, and understory...

  8. DC resistivity survey for the assessment of groundwater potential in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DC resistivity survey for the assessment of groundwater potential in Oba Akoko, Southwestern, Nigeria. ... maps of the weathered layer and overburden showed spatial distribution of the thickness with a relatively thick weathered/fractured basement not less than 10 m as basement depressions or pockets of closures.

  9. Assessment of antioxidant potential of Moringa stenopetala leaf extract

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study was conducted to assess the antioxidant potential of Moringa stenopetala leaf obtained from a private garden in Bahir Dar City and powdered Moringa leaf purchased from a supermarket in Bahir Dar City by using ferric reducing antioxidant power, 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl radical scavenging capacity, ...

  10. Ambient air pollution and assessment of ozone creation potential for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Volatile organic compound (VOC) species react at different rate and exhibit differences in reactivity with respect to ozone formation in polluted urban atmosphere. To assess this, the variations pattern, reactivity relative to OH radical and ozone creation potential of ambient VOCs were investigated in field studies at ...

  11. Assessing potential contaminants in groundwater in a typical open ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study assesses the potential contaminants in a refuse dump. Standard sampling and analytical methods were followed. The results revealed that the groundwater is generally acidic with pH values varying between 4.01 to 6.01 in the boreholes around the dumpsite and basic in the boreholes away from the dumpsite.

  12. Assessment of the Diagnostic Potential of Clinotech TB Screen Test ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Clinotech TB Screen test, a 3rd generation multi-antigen rapid chromatographic immunoassay for detection of IgG antibodies in serum against recombinant protein antigens 38kDa, 16kDa and 6kDa, was assessed for its diagnostic potential for diagnosis of active pulmonary TB in routine TB control programme in Abia ...

  13. In vitro assessment of the antimicrobial potential of honey on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Honey produced by honeybees (Apis mellifera) is one of the ancient traditional medicines used for treatment and prevention of various illnesses. Objective: To assess the antimicrobial potential of honey on some common bacterial pathogen. Methods: This experimental study was conducted in Jimma University ...

  14. Assessing the potential of mushroom cultivation in improving ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mo

    Assessing the potential of mushroom cultivation in improving household incomes of smallholder farmers. B. Obaa. and F. Nshemereirwe. Department of Agricultural Extension Education, Faculty of Agriculture, Makerere University, P.O Box 7062, Kampala. Kawanda Agricultural Research Institute, P.O. Box 7065, Kampala.

  15. Learning potential: a new method for assessing cognitive impairment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Ballesteros, Rocío; Zamarrón, María Dolores; Tàrraga, Lluís

    2005-03-01

    In recent years, it has been claimed that learning potential (also called cognitive plasticity or rehabilitation potential) may be a good predictor of the course of cognitive impairment and the process of dementia. The basic objective of this research program is to test the extent to which the "Battery of Learning Potential for Assessing Dementia" (BEPAD) discriminates healthy people from those diagnosed with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) and with Alzheimer's Disease (AD). Two hundred people: 100 healthy elders (51 women, 49 men, mean age: 73.13), 50 diagnosed with MCI (30 women, 20 men, mean age: 74.89), and 50 diagnosed with mild AD (36 women, 14 men, mean age: 75.07). Learning potential was assessed through dynamic assessment (or testing-the-limits), using experimental test-training-post-test, a form of evaluation closely related to functional or stress testing in medicine. In several previous studies the BEPAD was developed, with four tasks: visuo-spatial, verbal recall (including delayed verbal recall), executive control and verbal fluency. For all of these tasks, training procedures were developed, converting them into learning potential tests. All "dynamic" or learning scores (post-test) discriminate better healthy, MCI and AD subjects than all static or pre-test scores. A total of 89% of cases are correctly classified by the BEPAD: 95.7% of the healthy subjects, 90.6% of AD patients, and 71.1% of the MCI individuals were correctly classified.

  16. Modeling and assessment of future IGCC plant concepts with CO{sub 2} capture; Simulation und Bewertung zukuenftiger IGCC-Kraftwerkskonzepte mit CO{sub 2}-Abtrennung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kunze, Christian A.

    2012-07-13

    The thesis focuses on the assessment of efficiency potential of future IGCC plants with CO{sub 2} capture. Starting point is a comprehensive analysis (thermodynamic, economic and exergy) of a state of the art IGCC. Additionally, five future IGCC concepts are proposed and evaluated for their efficiency potential in the mid- and long-term. The concepts showed significantly higher efficiencies up to approximately 60% and enable an almost CO{sub 2}-free operation.

  17. Agricultural soils potentially contaminated: risk assessment procedure case studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleonora Beccaloni

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available At the moment, the health-environmental risk analysis is used to decision-making targets in the contaminated sites management; this procedure allows to assess the quantitative health risk related to the pollutants presence in environmental compartments, as soil and waters. As regards potentially contaminated agricultural soils, the ingestion of food from vegetable and/or animal source, produced inside the contaminated area, is the most suitable way to assess the health risk. As an official procedure to this assessment is not available, the National Institute for Health (Istituto Superiore di Sanità, ISS has worked out an operating procedure, organized into several phases, depending on the available specific-site know-how. In this document, agricultural soils potentially contaminated in two sites have been studied; the sites are the following: Brescia Caffaro and Torviscosa.

  18. Assessing levels of contaminants in breast milk: methodological issues and a framework for future research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renfrew, Mary J; Hay, Alaistair M W; Shelton, Nicola; Law, Graham; Wallis, Susan; Madden, Shelley; Shires, Susan; Sutcliffe, Anne; Woolridge, Michael W

    2008-01-01

    To assess the scale of the possible exposure by the breast-fed infant to potentially harmful substances in breast milk, methodologically robust studies are essential. Many studies in this field, however, do not report details of crucial issues such as recruitment and milk sampling. The aims of the study reported here were to develop robust methods for the study of contaminants in breast milk, and to develop a framework for future research and population monitoring. Three cohorts of women and babies were recruited by midwives from five sites in northern England. Cohort 1 (cross-sectional, n = 322) were asked to provide two milk samples, one at one week following birth and one at a subsequent time point. Cohort 2 (longitudinal, n = 54) were asked to provide five samples at specified time points over the first 12-16 weeks after birth. Cohort 3 (convenience, n = 18), mothers of babies in the Special Care Unit, were asked to donate surplus breast milk. A novel method of analysing fat concentration in small volumes was developed and tested. A randomly selected set of samples from different donors and stages of lactation was screened for organochlorine pesticide residues, polychlorinated biphenyls, dioxins/furans, phthalates and heavy metals. A total of 453 samples were donated. Cohort 3 was the least successful route of recruitment. Cohorts 1 and 2 combined were most representative of the population. Sample collection, transport and storage procedures, and the collection of data on life style and diet, were robust and acceptable to women. Midwifery involvement in recruitment was an essential component. This study offers a framework both for the conduct of future research studies, and for the establishment of regional and national monitoring mechanisms for contaminants in breast milk. Similar work on contaminants in formula as fed to babies is needed to inform risk assessment methods.

  19. The Potential for Snow to Supply Human Water Demand in the Present and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mankin, Justin S.; Viviroli, Daniel; Singh, Deepti; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

    2015-01-01

    Runoff from snowmelt is regarded as a vital water source for people and ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Numerous studies point to the threat global warming poses to the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt. But analyses focused on snow supply do not show where changes to snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given sub-annual patterns of human water consumption and water availability from rainfall. We identify the NH basins where present spring and summer snowmelt has the greatest potential to supply the human water demand that would otherwise be unmet by instantaneous rainfall runoff. Using a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections, we find that these basins - which together have a present population of approx. 2 billion people - are exposed to a 67% risk of decreased snow supply this coming century. Further, in the multi-model mean, 68 basins (with a present population of more than 300 million people) transition from having sufficient rainfall runoff to meet all present human water demand to having insufficient rainfall runoff. However, internal climate variability creates irreducible uncertainty in the projected future trends in snow resource potential, with about 90% of snow-sensitive basins showing potential for either increases or decreases over the near-term decades. Our results emphasize the importance of snow for fulfilling human water demand in many NH basins, and highlight the need to account for the full range of internal climate variability in developing robust climate risk management decisions.

  20. Concentrating solar power. Its potential contribution to a sustainable energy future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    detail, much of what is presented in this report on the development of CSP technologies and economics will also be relevant to these alternative applications of CSP. Following a chapter summarising the policy context, the current status of CSP and associated thermal energy storage technologies are described in Chapters 3 and 4. Chapter 5 then discusses the economics of CSP, considering cost reduction potential and consequent time-frames for cost competitiveness, and the value of CSP with storage and/or auxiliary firing in electricity markets. The environmental impacts of CSP are evaluated in Chapter 6 before a review of the potential future contribution of CSP in Europe and the MENA region presented in Chapter 7. Conclusions and recommendations follow, with a bibliography of the references informing this report and annexes providing supporting detail, and a glossary of terms at Annex 2.

  1. An assessment of wind energy potential in Iberia under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Santos, João A.; Rochinha, Carlos; Reyers, Mark; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2015-04-01

    Wind energy potential in Iberia is assessed for recent-past (1961-2000) and future (2041-2070) climates. For recent-past, a COSMO-CLM simulation driven by ERA-40 is used. COSMO-CLM simulations driven by ECHAM5 following the A1B scenario are used for future projections. A 2 MW rated power wind turbine is selected. Mean potentials, inter-annual variability and irregularity are discussed on annual/seasonal scales and on a grid resolution of 20 km. For detailed regional assessments eight target sites are considered. For recent-past conditions, the highest daily mean potentials are found in winter over northern and eastern Iberia, particularly on high-elevation or coastal regions. In northwestern Iberia, daily potentials frequently reach maximum wind energy output (50 MWh day-1), particularly in winter. Southern Andalucía reveals high potentials throughout the year, whereas the Ebro valley and central-western coast show high potentials in summer. The irregularity in annual potentials is moderate (2 MWh day-1). The northward displacement of North Atlantic westerly winds (autumn-spring) and the strengthening of easterly flows (summer) are key drivers of future projections. Santos, J.A.; Rochinha, C.; Liberato, M.L.R.; Reyers, M.; Pinto, J.G. (2015) Projected changes in wind energy potentials over Iberia. Renewable Energy, 75, 1: 68-80. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2014.09.026 Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

  2. THE OPTICAL PLANKTON COUNTER AND LASER OPTICAL PLANKTON COUNTERS AS TOOLS IN FUTURE ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY

    Science.gov (United States)

    A goal of MED's Great Lakes research is to provide improved means of monitoring and assessment. This presentation will highlight the capabilities of newer technologies and their potential for assessing zooplankton in the Great Lakes.

  3. Comprehensive Care Plan Development Using Resident Assessment Instrument Framework: Past, Present, and Future Practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dellefield, Mary Ellen; Corazzini, Kirsten

    2015-10-26

    Development of the comprehensive care plan (CCP) is a requirement for nursing homes participating in the federal Medicare and Medicaid programs, referred to as skilled nursing facilities. The plan must be developed within the context of the comprehensive interdisciplinary assessment framework-the Resident Assessment Instrument (RAI). Consistent compliance with this requirement has been difficult to achieve. To improve the quality of CCP development within this framework, an increased understanding of complex factors contributing to inconsistent compliance is required. In this commentary, we examine the history of the comprehensive care plan; its development within the RAI framework; linkages between the RAI and registered nurse staffing; empirical evidence of the CCP's efficacy; and the limitations of extant standards of practices in CCP development. Because of the registered nurse's educational preparation, professional practice standards, and licensure obligations, the essential contributions of professional nurses in CCP development are emphasized. Recommendations for evidence-based micro and macro level practice changes with the potential to improve the quality of CCP development and regulatory compliance are presented. Suggestions for future research are given.

  4. Comprehensive Care Plan Development Using Resident Assessment Instrument Framework: Past, Present, and Future Practices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary Ellen Dellefield

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Development of the comprehensive care plan (CCP is a requirement for nursing homes participating in the federal Medicare and Medicaid programs, referred to as skilled nursing facilities. The plan must be developed within the context of the comprehensive interdisciplinary assessment framework—the Resident Assessment Instrument (RAI. Consistent compliance with this requirement has been difficult to achieve. To improve the quality of CCP development within this framework, an increased understanding of complex factors contributing to inconsistent compliance is required. In this commentary, we examine the history of the comprehensive care plan; its development within the RAI framework; linkages between the RAI and registered nurse staffing; empirical evidence of the CCP’s efficacy; and the limitations of extant standards of practices in CCP development. Because of the registered nurse’s educational preparation, professional practice standards, and licensure obligations, the essential contributions of professional nurses in CCP development are emphasized. Recommendations for evidence-based micro and macro level practice changes with the potential to improve the quality of CCP development and regulatory compliance are presented. Suggestions for future research are given.

  5. Assessing Current and Future Freshwater Flood Risk from North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones via Insurance Claims

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czajkowski, Jeffrey; Villarini, Gabriele; Montgomery, Marilyn; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Goska, Radoslaw

    2017-02-01

    The most recent decades have witnessed record breaking losses associated with U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). Flood-related damages represent a large portion of these losses, and although storm surge is typically the main focus in the media and of warnings, much of the TC flood losses are instead freshwater-driven, often extending far inland from the landfall locations. Despite this actuality, knowledge of TC freshwater flood risk is still limited. Here we provide for the first time a comprehensive assessment of the TC freshwater flood risk from the full set of all significant flood events associated with U.S. landfalling TCs from 2001 to 2014. We find that the areas impacted by freshwater flooding are nearly equally divided between coastal and inland areas. We determine the statistical relationship between physical hazard and residential economic impact at a community level for the entire country. These results allow us to assess the potential future changes in TC freshwater flood risk due to changing climate pattern and urbanization in a more heavily populated U.S. Findings have important implications for flood risk management, insurance and resilience.

  6. Ecological models for regulatory risk assessments of pesticides: Developing a strategy for the future.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thorbek, P.; Forbes, V.; Heimbach, F.; Hommen, U.; Thulke, H.H.; Brink, van den P.J.

    2010-01-01

    Ecological Models for Regulatory Risk Assessments of Pesticides: Developing a Strategy for the Future provides a coherent, science-based view on ecological modeling for regulatory risk assessments. It discusses the benefits of modeling in the context of registrations, identifies the obstacles that

  7. Intellectual Assessment of Children and Youth in Mexico: Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Escobedo, Pedro; Esquivel-Ancona, Fayne; Hollingworth, Liz

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe the history, current practices, and future directions in intellectual assessment of children and youth in Mexico. Differences and similarities with the United States are explored through the analysis of theoretical perspectives, practices, and policies. A summarized history of intellectual assessment is…

  8. NASA's Vision for Potential Energy Reduction from Future Generations of Propulsion Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haller, Bill

    2015-01-01

    Through a robust partnership with the aviation industry, over the past 50 years NASA programs have helped foster advances in propulsion technology that enabled substantial reductions in fuel consumption for commercial transports. Emerging global trends and continuing environmental concerns are creating challenges that will very likely transform the face of aviation over the next 20-40 years. In recognition of this development, NASA Aeronautics has established a set of Research Thrusts that will help define the future direction of the agency's research technology efforts. Two of these thrusts, Ultra-Efficient Commercial Vehicles and Transition to Low-Carbon Propulsion, serve as cornerstones for the Advanced Air Transport Technology (AATT) project. The AATT project is exploring and developing high-payoff technologies and concepts that are key to continued improvement in energy efficiency and environmental compatibility for future generations of fixed-wing, subsonic transports. The AATT project is primarily focused on the N+3 timeframe, or 3 generations from current technology levels. As should be expected, many of the propulsion system architectures technologies envisioned for N+3 vary significantly from todays engines. The use of batteries in a hybrid-electric configuration or deploying multiple fans distributed across the airframe to enable higher bypass ratios are just two examples of potential advances that could enable substantial energy reductions over current propulsion systems.

  9. Eruptive history of the Dieng Mountains region, central Java, and potential hazards from future eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, C. Dan; Sushyar, R.; ,; Hamidi, S.

    1983-01-01

    The Dieng Mountains region consists of a complex of late Quaternary to recent volcanic stratocones, parasitic vents, and explosion craters. Six age groups of volcanic centers, eruptive products, and explosion craters are recognized in the region based on their morphology, degree of dissection, stratigraphic relationships, and degree of weathering. These features range in age from tens of thousands of years to events that have occurred this century. No magmatic eruptions have occurred in the Dieng Mountains region for at least several thousand years; volcanic activity during this time interval has consisted of phreatic eruptions and non-explosive hydrothermal activity. If future volcanic events are similar to those of the last few thousand years, they will consist of phreatic eruptions, associated small hot mudflows, emission of suffocating gases, and hydrothermal activity. Future phreatic eruptions may follow, or accompany, periods of increased earthquake activity; the epicenters for the seismicity may suggest where eruptive activity will occur. Under such circumstances, the populace within several kilometers of a potential eruption site should be warned of a possible eruption, given instructions about what to do in the event of an eruption, or temporarily evacuated to a safer location.

  10. PAU-SA: A Synthetic Aperture Interferometric Radiometer Test Bed for Potential Improvements in Future Missions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merce Vall-llosera

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS mission is an Earth Explorer Opportunity mission from the European Space Agency (ESA. Its goal is to produce global maps of soil moisture and ocean salinity using the Microwave Imaging Radiometer by Aperture Synthesis (MIRAS. The purpose of the Passive Advanced Unit Synthetic Aperture (PAU-SA instrument is to study and test some potential improvements that could eventually be implemented in future missions using interferometric radiometers such as the Geoestacionary Atmosferic Sounder (GAS, the Precipitation and All-weather Temperature and Humidity (PATH and the Geostationary Interferometric Microwave Sounder (GIMS. Both MIRAS and PAU-SA are Y-shaped arrays with uniformly distributed antennas, but the receiver topology and the processing unit are quite different. The purpose of this work is to identify the elements in the MIRAS’s design susceptible of improvement and apply them in the PAU-SA instrument demonstrator, to test them in view of these future interferometric radiometer missions.

  11. PAU-SA: A Synthetic Aperture Interferometric Radiometer Test Bed for Potential Improvements in Future Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos-Perez, Isaac; Camps, Adriano; Bosch-Lluis, Xavi; Rodriguez-Alvarez, Nereida; Valencia-Domènech, Enric; Park, Hyuk; Forte, Giuseppe; Vall-llosera, Merce

    2012-01-01

    The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission is an Earth Explorer Opportunity mission from the European Space Agency (ESA). Its goal is to produce global maps of soil moisture and ocean salinity using the Microwave Imaging Radiometer by Aperture Synthesis (MIRAS). The purpose of the Passive Advanced Unit Synthetic Aperture (PAU-SA) instrument is to study and test some potential improvements that could eventually be implemented in future missions using interferometric radiometers such as the Geoestacionary Atmosferic Sounder (GAS), the Precipitation and All-weather Temperature and Humidity (PATH) and the Geostationary Interferometric Microwave Sounder (GIMS). Both MIRAS and PAU-SA are Y-shaped arrays with uniformly distributed antennas, but the receiver topology and the processing unit are quite different. The purpose of this work is to identify the elements in the MIRAS's design susceptible of improvement and apply them in the PAU-SA instrument demonstrator, to test them in view of these future interferometric radiometer missions. PMID:22969371

  12. Potential future increase in extreme one-hour precipitation events over Europe due to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, A N; Gregersen, I B; Christensen, O B; Linde, J J; Mikkelsen, P S

    2009-01-01

    In this study the potential increase of extreme precipitation in a future warmer European climate has been examined. Output from the regional climate model (RCM) HIRHAM4 covering Europe has been analysed for two periods, a control period 1961-1990 and a scenario 2071-2100, the latter following the IPCC scenario A2. The model has a resolution of about 12 km, which is unique compared with existing RCM studies that typically operate at 25-50 km scale, and make the results relevant to hydrological phenomena occurring at the spatial scale of the infrastructure designed to drain off rainfall in large urban areas. Extreme events with one- and 24-hour duration were extracted using the Partial Duration Series approach, a Generalized Pareto Distribution was fitted to the data and T-year events for return periods from 2 to 100 years were calculated for the control and scenario period in model cells across Europe. The analysis shows that there will be an increase of the intensity of extreme events generally in Europe; Scandinavia will experience the highest increase and southern Europe the lowest. A 20 year 1-hour precipitation event will for example become a 4 year event in Sweden and a 10 year event in Spain. Intensities for short durations and high return periods will increase the most, which implies that European urban drainage systems will be challenged in the future.

  13. Realistic Energy Saving Potential of Sleep Mode for Existing and Future Mobile Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Micallef, Gilbert; Saker, Louai; Elayoubi, Salah Eddine

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an extensive overview on an energy saving feature referred to as ‘site sleep mode’, designed for existing and future mobile broadband networks. In addition to providing a detailed understanding of the main concept, the paper also provides various studies and results to highlight...... potential savings, and emphasize some of the expected limitations. Since site measurements show that the energy consumption of base station sites is largely load-independent, this makes such a feature highly effective for reducing the energy consumption of mobile networks during hours of low traffic. After...... going through a number of different alternatives of the feature, this is applied to different network topologies, macro-only based networks, and a set of heterogeneous networks that employ the use of small cells in traffic hotspots. Results obtained through detailed case studies show that sleep mode can...

  14. A Potential Transmitter Architecture for Future Generation Green Wireless Base Station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike Faulkner

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Current radio frequency power amplifiers in 3G base stations have very high power consumption leading to a hefty cost and negative environmental impact. In this paper, we propose a potential architecture design for future wireless base station. Issues associated with components of the architecture are investigated. The all-digital transmitter architecture uses a combination of envelope elimination and restoration (EER and pulse width modulation (PWM/pulse position modulation (PPM modulation. The performance of this architecture is predicted from the measured output power and efficiency curves of a GaN amplifier. 57% efficiency is obtained for an OFDM signal limited to 8 dB peak to average power ratio. The PWM/PPM drive signal is generated using the improved Cartesian sigma delta techniques. It is shown that an RF oversampling by a factor of four meets the WLAN spectral mask, and WCDMA specification is met by an RF oversampling of sixteen.

  15. Current status and future potential of energy derived from Chinese agricultural land: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Ningning; Mao, Chunlan; Feng, Yongzhong; Zhang, Tong; Xing, Zhenjie; Wang, Yanhong; Zou, Shuzhen; Yin, Dongxue; Han, Xinhui; Ren, Guangxin; Yang, Gaihe

    2015-01-01

    Energy crisis is receiving attention with regard to the global economy and environmental sustainable development. Developing new energy resources to optimize the energy supply structure has become an important measure to prevent energy shortage as well as achieving energy conservation and emission reduction in China. This study proposed the concept of energy agriculture and constructed an energy agricultural technical support system based on the analysis of energy supply and demand and China's foreign dependence on energy resources, combined with the function of agriculture in the energy field. Manufacturing technology equipment and agricultural and forestry energy, including crop or forestry plants and animal feces, were used in the system. The current status and future potential of China's marginal land resources, energy crop germplasm resources, and agricultural and forestry waste energy-oriented resources were analyzed. Developing the function of traditional agriculture in food production may promote China's social, economic, and environmental sustainable development and achieve energy saving and emission reduction.

  16. Nuclear fusion and its large potential for the future world energy supply

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ongena Jef

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available An overview of the energy problem in the world is presented. The colossal task of ‘decarbonizing’ the current energy system, with ~85% of the primary energy produced from fossil sources is discussed. There are at the moment only two options that can contribute to a solution: renewable energy (sun, wind, hydro, etc. or nuclear fission. Their contributions, ~2% for sun and wind, ~6% for hydro and ~5% for fission, will need to be enormously increased in a relatively short time, to meet the targets set by policy makers. The possible role and large potential for fusion to contribute to a solution in the future as a safe, nearly inexhaustible and environmentally compatible energy source is discussed. The principles of magnetic and inertial confinement are outlined, and the two main options for magnetic confinement, tokamak and stellarator, are explained. The status of magnetic fusion is summarized and the next steps in fusion research, ITER and DEMO, briefly presented.

  17. Artificial neural networks in gynaecological diseases: current and potential future applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siristatidis, Charalampos S; Chrelias, Charalampos; Pouliakis, Abraham; Katsimanis, Evangelos; Kassanos, Dimitrios

    2010-10-01

    Current (and probably future) practice of medicine is mostly associated with prediction and accurate diagnosis. Especially in clinical practice, there is an increasing interest in constructing and using valid models of diagnosis and prediction. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are mathematical systems being used as a prospective tool for reliable, flexible and quick assessment. They demonstrate high power in evaluating multifactorial data, assimilating information from multiple sources and detecting subtle and complex patterns. Their capability and difference from other statistical techniques lies in performing nonlinear statistical modelling. They represent a new alternative to logistic regression, which is the most commonly used method for developing predictive models for outcomes resulting from partitioning in medicine. In combination with the other non-algorithmic artificial intelligence techniques, they provide useful software engineering tools for the development of systems in quantitative medicine. Our paper first presents a brief introduction to ANNs, then, using what we consider the best available evidence through paradigms, we evaluate the ability of these networks to serve as first-line detection and prediction techniques in some of the most crucial fields in gynaecology. Finally, through the analysis of their current application, we explore their dynamics for future use.

  18. Meaningful Peer Review in Radiology: A Review of Current Practices and Potential Future Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moriarity, Andrew K; Hawkins, C Matthew; Geis, J Raymond; Dreyer, Keith J; Kamer, Aaron P; Khandheria, Paras; Morey, Jose; Whitfill, James; Wiggins, Richard H; Itri, Jason N

    2016-12-01

    The current practice of peer review within radiology is well developed and widely implemented compared with other medical specialties. However, there are many factors that limit current peer review practices from reducing diagnostic errors and improving patient care. The development of "meaningful peer review" requires a transition away from compliance toward quality improvement, whereby the information and insights gained facilitate education and drive systematic improvements that reduce the frequency and impact of diagnostic error. The next generation of peer review requires significant improvements in IT functionality and integration, enabling features such as anonymization, adjudication by multiple specialists, categorization and analysis of errors, tracking, feedback, and easy export into teaching files and other media that require strong partnerships with vendors. In this article, the authors assess various peer review practices, with focused discussion on current limitations and future needs for meaningful peer review in radiology. Copyright © 2016 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Assessing the Potential for Renewable Energy on Public Lands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2003-02-01

    This report represents an initial activity of the Bureau of Land Managements (BLM) proposed National Energy Policy Implementation Plan: identify and evaluate renewable energy resources on federal lands and any limitations on accessing them. Ultimately, BLM will prioritize land-use planning activities to increase industrys development of renewable energy resources. These resources include solar, biomass, geothermal, water, and wind energy. To accomplish this, BLM and the Department of Energys National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) established a partnership to conduct an assessment of renewable energy resources on BLM lands in the western United States. The objective of this collaboration was to identify BLM planning units in the western states with the highest potential for private-sector development of renewable resources. The assessment resulted in the following findings: (1) 63 BLM planning units in nine western states have high potential for one or more renewable energy technologies; and (2) 20 BLM planning units in seven western states have high potential for power production from three or more renewable energy sources. This assessment report provides BLM with information needed to prioritize land-use planning activities on the basis of potential for the development of energy from renewable resources.

  20. Assessment of Global Wind Energy Resource Utilization Potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, M.; He, B.; Guan, Y.; Zhang, H.; Song, S.

    2017-09-01

    Development of wind energy resource (WER) is a key to deal with climate change and energy structure adjustment. A crucial issue is to obtain the distribution and variability of WER, and mine the suitable location to exploit it. In this paper, a multicriteria evaluation (MCE) model is constructed by integrating resource richness and stability, utilization value and trend of resource, natural environment with weights. The global resource richness is assessed through wind power density (WPD) and multi-level wind speed. The utilizable value of resource is assessed by the frequency of effective wind. The resource stability is assessed by the coefficient of variation of WPD and the frequency of prevailing wind direction. Regression slope of long time series WPD is used to assess the trend of WER. All of the resource evaluation indicators are derived from the atmospheric reanalysis data ERA-Interim with spatial resolution 0.125°. The natural environment factors mainly refer to slope and land-use suitability, which are derived from multi-resolution terrain elevation data 2010 (GMTED 2010) and GlobalCover2009. Besides, the global WER utilization potential map is produced, which shows most high potential regions are located in north of Africa. Additionally, by verifying that 22.22 % and 48.8 9% operational wind farms fall on medium-high and high potential regions respectively, the result can provide a basis for the macroscopic siting of wind farm.

  1. Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Hydraulic Fracturing for ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This assessment provides a review and synthesis of available scientific literature and data to assess the potential for hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas to impact the quality or quantity of drinking water resources, and identifies factors affecting the frequency or severity of any potential impacts. The scope of this assessment is defined by the hydraulic fracturing water cycle which includes five main activities: Water acquisition – the withdrawal of ground or surface water needed for hydraulic fracturing fluids;Chemical mixing – the mixing of water, chemicals, and proppant on the well pad to create the hydraulic fracturing fluid;Well injection – the injection of hydraulic fracturing fluids into the well to fracture the geologic formation; Flowback and Produced water – the return of injected fluid and water produced from the formation to the surface, and subsequent transport for reuse, treatment, or disposal; andWastewater treatment and waste disposal – the reuse, treatment and release, or disposal of wastewater generated at the well pad, including produced water. This report can be used by federal, tribal, state, and local officials; industry; and the public to better understand and address vulnerabilities of drinking water resources to hydraulic fracturing activities. To assess the potential impacts of hydraulic fracturing on drinking water resources, if any, and to identify the driving factors that may affect the severity and frequency of s

  2. Exploring the hydropower potential of future ice-free glacier basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Round, Vanessa; Farinotti, Daniel; Huss, Matthias

    2017-04-01

    The retreat of glaciers over the next century will present new challenges related to water availability and cause significant changes to the landscape. The construction of dams in areas becoming ice-free has previously been suggested as a mitigation measure against changes to water resources in the European Alps. In Switzerland, a number of hydropower dams already exist directly below glaciers, and the hydropower potential of natural lakes left by retreating glaciers has been recognised. We expand these concepts to the regional, and ultimately global, scale to assess the potential of creating hydropower dams in glacier basins, encouraged by advantages such as relatively low ecological and social impacts, and the possibility to replicate the water storage capabilities of glaciers. In a first order assessment, dam volumes are computed using a subglacial topography model and dam walls simulated at the terminus of each glacier. Potential power production is then estimated from projected glacier catchment runoff until 2100 based on the Global Glacier Evolution Model (GloGEM), and penstock head approximated from a global digital elevation model. Based on this, a feasibility ranking system is presented which takes into account various proxies for cost, demand and impact, such as proximity to populations and existing infrastructure, geological risks and threatened species. The ultimate objective is to identify locations of glacier retreat which could most feasibly and beneficially be used for hydropower production.

  3. Modelization of the Current and Future Habitat Suitability of Rhododendron ferrugineum Using Potential Snow Accumulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Komac

    Full Text Available Mountain areas are particularly sensitive to climate change. Species distribution models predict important extinctions in these areas whose magnitude will depend on a number of different factors. Here we examine the possible impact of climate change on the Rhododendron ferrugineum (alpenrose niche in Andorra (Pyrenees. This species currently occupies 14.6 km2 of this country and relies on the protection afforded by snow cover in winter. We used high-resolution climatic data, potential snow accumulation and a combined forecasting method to obtain the realized niche model of this species. Subsequently, we used data from the high-resolution Scampei project climate change projection for the A2, A1B and B1 scenarios to model its future realized niche model. The modelization performed well when predicting the species's distribution, which improved when we considered the potential snow accumulation, the most important variable influencing its distribution. We thus obtained a potential extent of about 70.7 km(2 or 15.1% of the country. We observed an elevation lag distribution between the current and potential distribution of the species, probably due to its slow colonization rate and the small-scale survey of seedlings. Under the three climatic scenarios, the realized niche model of the species will be reduced by 37.9-70.1 km(2 by the end of the century and it will become confined to what are today screes and rocky hillside habitats. The particular effects of climate change on seedling establishment, as well as on the species' plasticity and sensitivity in the event of a reduction of the snow cover, could worsen these predictions.

  4. Modelization of the Current and Future Habitat Suitability of Rhododendron ferrugineum Using Potential Snow Accumulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komac, Benjamin; Esteban, Pere; Trapero, Laura; Caritg, Roger

    2016-01-01

    Mountain areas are particularly sensitive to climate change. Species distribution models predict important extinctions in these areas whose magnitude will depend on a number of different factors. Here we examine the possible impact of climate change on the Rhododendron ferrugineum (alpenrose) niche in Andorra (Pyrenees). This species currently occupies 14.6 km2 of this country and relies on the protection afforded by snow cover in winter. We used high-resolution climatic data, potential snow accumulation and a combined forecasting method to obtain the realized niche model of this species. Subsequently, we used data from the high-resolution Scampei project climate change projection for the A2, A1B and B1 scenarios to model its future realized niche model. The modelization performed well when predicting the species's distribution, which improved when we considered the potential snow accumulation, the most important variable influencing its distribution. We thus obtained a potential extent of about 70.7 km(2) or 15.1% of the country. We observed an elevation lag distribution between the current and potential distribution of the species, probably due to its slow colonization rate and the small-scale survey of seedlings. Under the three climatic scenarios, the realized niche model of the species will be reduced by 37.9-70.1 km(2) by the end of the century and it will become confined to what are today screes and rocky hillside habitats. The particular effects of climate change on seedling establishment, as well as on the species' plasticity and sensitivity in the event of a reduction of the snow cover, could worsen these predictions.

  5. Review: Assessing the climate mitigation potential of biomass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Moriarty

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available For many millennia, humans have used biomass for three broad purposes: food for humans and fodder for farm animals; energy; and materials. Food has always been exclusively produced from biomass, and in the year 1800, biomass still accounted for about 95% of all energy. Biomass has also been a major source of materials for construction, implements, clothing, bedding and other uses, but some researchers think that total human uses of biomass will soon reach limits of sustainability. It is thus important to select those biomass uses that will maximise global climate change benefits. With a ‘food first’ policy, it is increasingly recognised that projections of food needs are important for estimating future global bioenergy potential, and that non-food uses of biomass can be increased by both food crop yield improvements and dietary changes. However, few researchers have explicitly included future biomaterials production as a factor in bioenergy potential. Although biomaterials’ share of the materials market has roughly halved over the past quarter-century, we show that per tonne of biomass, biomaterials will usually allow greater greenhouse gas reductions than directly using biomass for bioenergy. particularly since in many cases, biomaterials can be later burnt for energy after their useful life.

  6. Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: comparative aspects and future perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorne, J L C M; Fink-Gremmels, J

    2013-08-01

    Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Beyond the Dirty Dozen: A Proposed Methodology for Assessing Future Bioweapon Threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cieslak, Theodore J; Kortepeter, Mark G; Wojtyk, Ronald J; Jansen, Hugo-Jan; Reyes, Ricardo A; Smith, James O

    2018-01-01

    Defense policy planners and countermeasure developers are often faced with vexing problems involving the prioritization of resources and efforts. This is especially true in the area of Biodefense, where each new emerging infectious disease outbreak brings with it questions regarding the causative agent's potential for weaponization. Recent experience with West Nile Virus, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, Monkeypox, and H1N1 Influenza highlights this problem. Appropriately, in each of these cases, the possibility of bioterrorism was raised, although each outbreak ultimately proved to have a natural origin. In fact, determining whether an outbreak has an unnatural origin can be quite difficult. Thus, the questions remain: could the causative agents of these and other emerging infectious disease outbreaks pose a future weaponization threat? And how great is that threat? Should precious resources be diverted from other defense efforts in order to prepare for possible hostile employment of novel diseases by belligerents? Answering such critical questions requires some form of systematic threat assessment. Through extensive collaborative work conducted within NATO's Biomedical Advisory Council, we developed a scoring matrix for evaluating the weaponization potential of the causative agents of such diseases and attempted to validate our matrix by examining the reproducibility of data using known threat agents. Our matrix included 12 attributes of a potential weapon and was provided, along with detailed scoring instructions, to 12 groups of biodefense experts in 6 NATO nations. Study participants were asked to score each of these 12 attributes on a scale of 0-3: Infectivity, Infection-to-Disease Ratio (Reliability), Predictability (& Incubation Period), Morbidity & Mortality (Virulence), Ease of Large-Scale Production & Storage, Aerosol Stability, Atmospheric Stability, Ease of Dispersal, Communicability, Prophylactic Countermeasure Availability, Therapeutic

  8. The Belem Framework for Action: Harnessing the Power and Potential of Adult Learning and Education for a Viable Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adult Learning, 2012

    2012-01-01

    This article presents the Belem Framework for Action. This framework focuses on harnessing the power and potential of adult learning and education for a viable future. This framework begins with a preamble on adult education and towards lifelong learning.

  9. THE ATTITUDE OF POTENTIAL PARENTS TO ALCOHOL ADDICTION AND HEALTH CHANGES OF THE FUTURE GENERATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhanna Leonidovna Malakhova

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The results of this research into the alcohol addiction level among young people (potential parents aged 17-27 years old are represented in the article. The questionnaire form, which guarantees full anonymity of the respondent, was chosen as a main research method. The questionnaire consisted of two parts: the first questions were focused on acquaintance with the respondent (sex, age etc, other questions focused on their attitude to alcohol with "yes" or "no" answers. Answers were transferred into points and summed up. Girls who had 16 and more points and boys with 21 and more points were considered to have a high alcohol addiction level. 753 people were questioned; there were 509 girls and 244 boys among them. 284 people (37,3% showed a high alcohol addiction level with 187 girls and 97 boys among them. That is why it seems clear that there are no effective measures aimed at healthy lifestyle propaganda among the young today. It should be also mentioned that there is a big percentage (37,3% of high alcohol addiction level among individuals 17-26 years old – potential fathers and mothers of the future generation.Scope of application of results – social medicine, healthcare arrangement.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-8-44

  10. The potential distribution of bioenergy crops in the UK under present and future climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bellarby, Jessica; Smith, Pete (School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, 23 St Machar Drive, Aberdeen AB24 3UU (GB); Freie Universitaet Berlin, Institut fuer Meteorologie, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6-10, 12165 Berlin (DE)); Tuck, Gill; Glendining, Margaret J. (Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Herts AL5 2JQ (GB)); Wattenbach, Martin (School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, 23 St Machar Drive, Aberdeen (GB))

    2010-12-15

    We have predicted the potential distribution of 26 bioenergy crops in the UK, based on the simple model described by Tuck et al. The model has been applied at a 5 km resolution using the UKCIP02 model for scenarios at Low, Medium-Low, Medium-High and High emissions. In the analysis of the results the limitations for crop growth are assigned to elevation, temperature, high and low rainfall. Most of the crops currently grown are predicted to remain prevalent in the UK. A number of crops are suitable for introduction to the UK under a changing climate, whereas others retreat to northern parts of the UK. The greatest changes are expected in England. The simplicity of the model means that it has a relatively high uncertainty, with minor modifications to the model leading to quite different results. Nevertheless, it is well suited for identifying areas and crops that are most likely to be affected by the greatest changes. It has been noted that Miscanthus and Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) willow and poplar, which are currently regarded as highly suitable for UK conditions, may be less suited to southern areas in the future, where, for example, kenaf could have a greater potential. Further investigations are required to reduce uncertainty associated with the projections based on this simple model and to make conclusions more firmly. (author)

  11. Hydrological impact of the potential future vegetation response to climate changes projected by 8 GCMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alo, Clement Aga; Wang, Guiling

    2008-09-01

    This study uses offline simulations with a land surface model to explore how the future response of potential vegetation to elevated CO2 and attendant climate changes feeds back to influence surface hydrological processes. Climate changes are those projected by eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the SRESA1B, and the potential natural vegetation structure corresponding to the Preindustrial control and SRESA1B 2100 climate of the 8 GCMs are simulated by a dynamic global vegetation model integrated to equilibrium. For climate change forcing from each GCM, comparisons are made among three surface hydrology simulations using CLM3.0 driven with different combinations of climate forcing, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and potential natural vegetation. These simulations are designed to separate the effect of structural vegetation feedback from the combined influence of climate and CO2 changes. With the exception of the HadCM scenario, all other GCM scenarios broadly agree on the spatial patterns of structural vegetation feedbacks on surface temperature and surface water budget, although the response of soil moisture varies considerably among the GCM scenarios especially in the tropics. With the HadCM excluded, averages over the seven GCM scenarios indicate that the CO2-induced warming in winter is stronger than in summer in the northern mid and high latitudes, and structural vegetation feedback enhances the winter warming and reduces the summer warming over a large portion of these regions; the global hydrological cycle is expected to accelerate in a warmer future climate, while the structural vegetation feedback further increases evapotranspiration in a major portion of the globe, including parts of South America, tropical Africa, Southeast Asia, and regions north of approximately 45°N, suggesting that vegetation feedback could further accelerate the hydrological cycle. Averaged over the globe, this increase in evapotranspiration due to structural vegetation

  12. Potential Technologies for Assessing Risk Associated with a Mesoscale Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-01

    Forecast by Patrick A Haines, Jeffrey A Smith, Mark R Hjelmfelt, William J Capehart, and James L Cogan Approved for...OCT 2015 US Army Research Laboratory Potential Technologies for Assessing Risk Associated with a Mesoscale Forecast by Patrick A... Forecast 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) Patrick A Haines, Jeffrey A Smith, Mark R Hjelmfelt, William

  13. Assessment of Wind Energy Technology Potential in Indian Context

    OpenAIRE

    Pachauri, Rupendra Kumar; Yogesh K Chauhan

    2016-01-01

    Wind energy is highly preferred alternative as compared to conventional sources of power. India plays a leading role in the global wind energy market, but it is still not use its full wind potential, which is far from the exhausted condition. Moreover, these resources can lead to growth in Indian power sector. In this paper, the assessment of wind technology is explored for Indian context vis-a-vis indices related to wind technology. The state wise status, challenges, development of wind powe...

  14. Resource potential of bamboo, challenges and future directions towards sustainable management and utilization in Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Getachew Desalegn

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: Bamboo, the fastest growing and high yielding perennial plant of the world has more than 1500 species and 1500 versatile socio-economic uses and ecological services. Ethiopia has two indigenous bamboo species namely Yushania alpina and Oxytenantheria abyssinica, covering about one million ha with a wide distribution. The objective of this paper is to highlight the potential of bamboo resources, challenges including biodeterioration damage, opportunities and future research directions towards its sustainable management and rational utilization.Area of study: Bamboo resources of EthiopiaMaterial and Methods: Reconnaissance survey was done to some parts of the bamboo growing potential areas in Ethiopia besides the literature review. Main results: The bamboo resource, despite its socio-economic and environmental benefits, currently, in most areas has been under high pressure due to land use changes, bamboo mass- flowering, poor processing with low value addition, and damage by biodeteriorating agents (termites, beetles and fungi. The preservative tests on Ethiopian bamboos revealed low natural durability and highlighted the paramount importance of appropriate protection measures such as Tanalith and vehicles used motor oil to increase durability, service life and rational utilization of bamboo-based products and structures as potential alternative construction and furniture material.Research highlights: Therefore, integrated research and development interventions involving different propagation and managements techniques, harvesting season, processing, value addition including proper seasoning and preservation technologies and marketing are recommended to fill the information and technological gaps on sustainable management and rational utilization of this fast growing and multipurpose bamboo resources in Ethiopia.Key words: Bamboo; challenges; management; socio-economic and environmental significance; utilization.

  15. Chemical conditions in present and future ecosystems in Forsmark - implications for selected radionuclides in the safety assessment SR-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Troejbom, Mats (Mats Troejbom Konsult AB (Sweden)); Grolander, Sara (Facilia AB (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    This report is a background report for the biosphere analysis of the SR-Site Safety Assessment. This work aims to describe the future development of the chemical conditions at Forsmark, based on the present chemical conditions at landscape level taking landscape development and climate cases into consideration. The results presented contribute to the overall understanding of the present and future chemistry in the Forsmark area, and specifically, to the understanding of the behaviour of some selected radionuclides in the surface system. The future development of the chemistry at the site is qualitatively discussed with focus on the interglacial within the next 10,000 years. The effects on the chemical environment of future climate cases as Global Warming and cold permafrost climates are also briefly discussed. The work is presented in two independent parts describing background radionuclide activities in the Forsmark area and the distribution and behaviour of a large number of stable elements in the landscape. In a concluding section, implications of the future chemical environment of a selection of radionuclides important in the Safety Assessment are discussed based on the knowledge of stable elements. The broad range of elements studied show that there are general and expected patterns for the distribution and behaviour in the landscape of different groups of elements. Mass balances reveal major sources and sinks, pool estimations show where elements are accumulated in the landscape and estimations of time-scales give indications of the potential future development. This general knowledge is transferred to radionuclides not measured in order to estimate their behaviour and distribution in the landscape. It could be concluded that the future development of the chemical environment in the Forsmark area might affect element specific parameters used in de radionuclide model in different directions depending on element. The alternative climate cases, Global Warming

  16. Flood risk assessment of potential casualties in a global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Englhardt, Johanna; Boekhorst, Ellen; Ward, Philip; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-04-01

    Flood risk assessment of potential casualties in a global scale. M. Andres Diaz-Loaiza (1), Johanna Englhardt (1), Ellen de Boekhorst (1), Philip J. Ward (1) and Jeroen Aerts (1) (1) Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands. andres.diazloaiza@vu.nl Floods are one of the most dangerous natural disasters for humanity, affecting many people every year. Quantitative risk models on a global scale are nowadays available tools for institutions and actors in charge of risk management in order to plan possible mitigation measures in case of flood risk events. Many of these models have been focus on potential economic damage, population and GDP exposure, but the potential casualties assessment has been left aside. This is partially due to the complexity of the problem itself, in which several variables like the age of a pedestrian (drag/exposed to a flood event), or his weight and swimming experience can be decisive for the complete understanding of the problem. In the present work is presented the advances for the development of a methodology in order to include in the GLOFRIS model a new indicator in case of flood risk events. Preliminary analysis relating the GDP with the potential casualties shows that undeveloped countries have more susceptibility to loss of life in case of flood events. This because the GDP indicator evidences as well the protection measures available in a country.

  17. Multi-model and multi-scenario assessments of Asian water futures: The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Kahil, Taher; Byers, Edward; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Greve, Peter; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Magnuszewski, Piotr; Nava, Luzma Fabiola; Cosgrove, William; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water supply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry, and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30-40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6-2 billion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to gross domestic product (GDP) growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21st century.

  18. A system of systems assessment of the mitigation of surge and nuisance flooding under present and future conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagen, S. C.; Bilskie, M. V.; Collini, R.; DeLorme, D.; Medeiros, S. C.; Morris, J. T.; Passeri, D. L.; Yoskowitz, D.

    2016-12-01

    Extensive transdisciplinary efforts since 2010 in the northern Gulf of Mexico (MS, AL, and the FL panhandle) have resulted in a capability to model the coastal dynamics of sea level rise and assess hydrodynamic and ecological impacts at the coastal land margin [1-7]. The establishment of this paradigm shift (i.e., beyond "bathtub" approaches) was made possible, in no small part, by directly involving coastal resource managers at the initial stages and throughout the project process. Potential deleterious effects of sea level rise (SLR) to barrier islands, shorelines, dunes, marshes, etc., are now better understood. The paradigm shift, input from coastal resource managers and future conditions provide a rationale to evaluate and quantify the ability of Natural and Nature-based Feature (NNBF) approaches to mitigate the present and future effects of surge and nuisance flooding. This presentation will describe how we are employing a system of systems approach to assess NNBFs under present and future conditions. Passeri, D.L. et al. "The dynamic effects of sea level rise on low-gradient coastal landscapes: a review." Earth's Future, 3, 159-181, 2015. Morris, J.T. et al. "Contributions of organic and inorganic matter to sediment volume and accretion in tidal wetlands at steady state," Earth's Future, Vol. 4(4), pp. 110-121, 2016. Hovenga, P.A. et al. "The response of runoff and sediment loading in the Apalachicola River, Florida to climate and land use land cover change." Earth's Future, Vol. 4(5), pp. 124-142. 2016. Plant, N.G. et al. "Coupling centennial-scale shoreline change to sea-level rise and coastal morphology in the Gulf of Mexico using a Bayesian network." Earth's Future, Vol. 4(5), pp. 143-158. 2016. Passeri, D.L. et al. "Tidal Hydrodynamics under Future Sea Level Rise and Coastal Morphology in the Northern Gulf of Mexico." Earth's Future, Vol. 4(5), pp. 159-176. 2016. Bilskie, M.V. et al. "Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge

  19. Potential impacts of topography and prevailing wind direction on future precipitation changes in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsunematsu, N.; Dairaku, K.; Hirano, J.

    2013-12-01

    To investigate future changes in summertime precipitation amounts over the Japanese islands and their relations to the topographical heights, this study analyzed 20 km horizontal grid-spacing regional climate model downscalings of MIROC3.2-hires 20C3M and SRES-A1B scenario data for the periods of 1981-2000 and 2081-2100. Results indicate the remarkable increases in June-July-August mean daily precipitation in the west and south sides (windward sides) of the mountainous regions, especially in western Japan where heavy rainfall is frequently observed in the recent climate. The remarkable increases in summertime precipitation are likely to occur not only in high altitude areas but also at low altitudes. The occurrence frequencies of precipitation greater than 100 mm/day would also increase in such areas. The intensification of southwesterly moist air flows in the lower troposphere is considered to be one of the main causes of those precipitation changes because the intensified southwesterly moist air flows impinging on the western and southern slopes of the mountains can generate stronger upslope flows and well-developed clouds, leading to increased precipitation. Also, the results show that future precipitation changes in the lee sides of the mountainous regions (e.g., the Tokyo metropolitan area) would be comparatively small. These results indicate large influences of topography and prevailing wind direction on future precipitation changes. Acknowledgments: This study was conducted as part of the research subject "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Water Hazard Assessed Using Regional Climate Scenarios in the Tokyo Region' (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention; PI: Koji Dairaku) of Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA) and was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan. We thank the regional climate modeling groups (MRI

  20. Embedded performance validity testing in neuropsychological assessment: Potential clinical tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rickards, Tyler A; Cranston, Christopher C; Touradji, Pegah; Bechtold, Kathleen T

    2017-01-31

    The article aims to suggest clinically-useful tools in neuropsychological assessment for efficient use of embedded measures of performance validity. To accomplish this, we integrated available validity-related and statistical research from the literature, consensus statements, and survey-based data from practicing neuropsychologists. We provide recommendations for use of 1) Cutoffs for embedded performance validity tests including Reliable Digit Span, California Verbal Learning Test (Second Edition) Forced Choice Recognition, Rey-Osterrieth Complex Figure Test Combination Score, Wisconsin Card Sorting Test Failure to Maintain Set, and the Finger Tapping Test; 2) Selecting number of performance validity measures to administer in an assessment; and 3) Hypothetical clinical decision-making models for use of performance validity testing in a neuropsychological assessment collectively considering behavior, patient reporting, and data indicating invalid or noncredible performance. Performance validity testing helps inform the clinician about an individual's general approach to tasks: response to failure, task engagement and persistence, compliance with task demands. Data-driven clinical suggestions provide a resource to clinicians and to instigate conversation within the field to make more uniform, testable decisions to further the discussion, and guide future research in this area.

  1. Rooftop solar photovoltaic potential in cities: how scalable are assessment approaches?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellanos, Sergio; Sunter, Deborah A.; Kammen, Daniel M.

    2017-12-01

    Distributed photovoltaics (PV) have played a critical role in the deployment of solar energy, currently making up roughly half of the global PV installed capacity. However, there remains significant unused economically beneficial potential. Estimates of the total technical potential for rooftop PV systems in the United States calculate a generation comparable to approximately 40% of the 2016 total national electric-sector sales. To best take advantage of the rooftop PV potential, effective analytic tools that support deployment strategies and aggressive local, state, and national policies to reduce the soft cost of solar energy are vital. A key step is the low-cost automation of data analysis and business case presentation for structure-integrated solar energy. In this paper, the scalability and resolution of various methods to assess the urban rooftop PV potential are compared, concluding with suggestions for future work in bridging methodologies to better assist policy makers.

  2. Evaluating the Potential of NASA's Earth Science Research Results for Improving Future Operational Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederick, M. E.; Cox, E. L.; Friedl, L. A.

    2006-12-01

    evaluation of many and varied NASA research results for their potential to be candidates for further development as an ISS project. The intention is to seed the community with many creative ideas for projects that use "un-applied" NASA research results to serve society, such as simulations of future missions.

  3. Potential of wind power for Thailand: an assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Terry Commins

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews the potential for wind-power generated electricity in Thailand by means of a wide-ranging literature survey. Proposed application at a university campus is used as a case study to demonstrate that wind power is unlikely to be economically competitive where grid-connected electricity is available. The need for improved low wind speed turbine performance for Thai applications is highlighted by comparing the output of commercially available wind turbines with the characteristics of Thai wind; the challenges of improving low wind speed turbine performance are discussed. It is concluded that for Thailand in the foreseeable future the benefits of economic wind power electricity generation will probably be confined to small remote isolated installations including traditional applications.

  4. Assessing the Future of Distributed Wind: Opportunities for Behind-the-Meter Projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Preus, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Baring-Gould, Ian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-11-01

    Wind power is one of the fastest growing sources of new electricity generation in the United States. Cumulative installed capacity was more than 74,000 megawatts (MW) at year-end 2015 and wind power supplied 4.7% of total 2015 U.S. electricity generation. Despite the growth of the wind power industry, the distributed wind market has remained limited. Cumulative installations of distributed wind through 2015 totaled 934 MW. This first-of-a-kind exploratory analysis characterizes the future opportunity for behind-the-meter distributed wind, serving primarily rural or suburban homes, farms, and manufacturing facilities. This work focuses only on the grid-connected, behind-the-meter subset of the broader distributed wind market. We estimate this segment to be approximately half of the 934 MW of total installed distributed wind capacity at year-end 2015. Potential from other distributed wind market segments including systems installed in front of the meter (e.g., community wind) and in remote, off-grid locations is not assessed in this analysis and therefore, would be additive to results presented here. These other distributed wind market segments are not considered in this initial effort because of their relatively unique economic and market attributes.

  5. Program accomplishments and future prospects for low-temperature geothermal resource assessment in New Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Icerman, L.; Ruscetta, C.A. (ed.)

    1982-07-01

    An important component of the State-coupled program has been basic studies in specific regions of New Mexico, including areas adjacent to the cities of Albuquerque, Las Cruces, Socorro, and Truth or Consequences. Considerable geological, hydrological, electrical resistivity, gravity, magnetic, seismic, water analysis, and subsurface temperature data have been compiled and analyzed for these locations. During the four-year research program, a total of 25 tasks have been undertaken. Eleven of these tasks were focused toward collecting and compiling statewide data, six were regional studies covering more than one county, and eight were research projects directed primarily toward data collection near specific cities or known resource areas. Two of these latter studies contributed significantly to the confirmation of the Las Alturas geothermal anomaly east of Las Cruces. A brief summary of the program accomplishments by task is presented. The resource assessment programs in New Mexico have been very successful in (1) delineating low-temperature geothermal resources throughout New Mexico on statewide, regional, and area-specific scales; (2) developing a strong community of in-state geothermal energy research and development professionals and practitioners; and (3) elevating the level of awareness of geothermal energy potential among commerce, industry, and the general public. Future prospects for the state are presented.

  6. Anesthetic gases and global warming: Potentials, prevention and future of anesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadani, Hina; Vyas, Arun

    2011-01-01

    Global warming refers to an average increase in the earth's temperature, which in turn causes changes in climate. A warmer earth may lead to changes in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea level, and a wide range of impacts on plants, wildlife, and humans. Greenhouse gases make the earth warmer by trapping energy inside the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases are any gas that absorbs infrared radiation in the atmosphere and include: water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), halogenated fluorocarbons (HCFCs), ozone (O3), perfluorinated carbons (PFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Hazardous chemicals enter the air we breathe as a result of dozens of activities carried out during a typical day at a healthcare facility like processing lab samples, burning fossil fuels etc. We sometimes forget that anesthetic agents are also greenhouse gases (GHGs). Anesthetic agents used today are volatile halogenated ethers and the common carrier gas nitrous oxide known to be aggressive GHGs. With less than 5% of the total delivered halogenated anesthetic being metabolized by the patient, the vast majority of the anesthetic is routinely vented to the atmosphere through the operating room scavenging system. The global warming potential (GWP) of a halogenated anesthetic is up to 2,000 times greater than CO2. Global warming potentials are used to compare the strength of different GHGs to trap heat in the atmosphere relative to that of CO2. Here we discuss about the GWP of anesthetic gases, preventive measures to decrease the global warming effects of anesthetic gases and Xenon, a newer anesthetic gas for the future of anesthesia.

  7. Future risk of flooding: An analysis of changes in potential loss of life in South Holland (The Netherlands)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maaskant, B.; Jonkman, S.N.; Bouwer, L.M.

    2009-01-01

    Potential loss of life is considered an important indicator of flood risk. We examine the future development of potential loss of life due to flooding for a major flood prone area in The Netherlands. The analysis is based on projections and spatial distribution of population under a high economic

  8. Policy Research Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Impacts of Urban Expansion into Farmlands and Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael R. Guzy

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of urban land uses into farmlands and forests requires an assessment of future ecological impacts. Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies. When modeling complex adaptive systems, both the methods used to interpret results and the standards of rigor used to judge adequacy are complicated and require additional research. Recent studies suggest that it would be appropriate to use these models as an extension of exploratory analysis. This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about potential changes to the system. In this study, we develop understanding of the potential alternative futures for a social-ecological system by way of successive simulations that test variations in the types and numbers of policies. The model addresses the agricultural-urban interface and the preservation of ecosystem services. The landscape analyzed is at the junction of the McKenzie and Willamette Rivers adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield in Lane County, Oregon. Our exploration of alternative future scenarios suggests that policies that constrain urban growth and create incentives for farming and forest enterprises to preserve and enhance habitat can protect ecosystem resilience and services.

  9. The Future Potential of Brazilian Sugarcane Ethanol with respect to Land Availability and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, D.; Miguez, F.; Bollero, G.; Long, S.

    2014-12-01

    Expanding sugarcane production on the 65.9 mha area identified by Brazilian government can provide a sustainable and low carbon intensive supply of liquid fuel to the world. However, such expansion is also subject to long-term climate changes. Variation in sugarcane yield at policy-relevant spatial and temporal scales can greatly influence the long-term potential of Brazilian. A process-based crop model (BioCro) is parameterized and calibrated for leaf photosynthesis and field productivity. Multi-site validation against observed stem yield of sugarcane cultivar RB72454 suggests that model can predict consistent yield (observed = 0.92 × predicted; R2 = 0.65) over a wide range of soil and environmental conditions in Brazil. Regional simulations based on national soil data and reanalysis climate data suggest that 1.938 petagram (Pg) of stem dry biomass can be harvested annually. Increasing temperature and [CO2] can partially compensate for yield decline due to reduced rainfall in future, by means of greater water use efficiency and rate of photosynthesis. Simulations using five GCMs climate data suggest that average productivity of harvested stem dry biomass may decline from 1.938 Pg year-1 to 1.544 Pg year-1 (1.243-2.066 Pg year-1) by 2045 in the absence of improved cultivars.

  10. Floating Offshore Wind in Oregon: Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts from Two Future Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jimenez, Tony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tegen, Suzanne [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Speer, Bethany [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-05-01

    Construction of the first offshore wind power plant in the United States began in 2015, off the coast of Rhode Island, using fixed platform structures that are appropriate for shallow seafloors, like those located off of the East Coast and mid-Atlantic. However, floating platforms, which have yet to be deployed commercially, will likely need to anchor to the deeper seafloor if deployed off of the West Coast. To analyze the employment and economic potential for floating offshore wind along the West Coast, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to analyze two hypothetical, large-scale deployment scenarios for Oregon: 5,500 megawatts (MW) of offshore wind deployment in Oregon by 2050 (Scenario A), and 2,900 MW of offshore wind by 2050 (Scenario B). These levels of deployment could power approximately 1,600,000 homes (Scenario A) or 870,000 homes (Scenario B). Offshore wind would contribute to economic development in Oregon in the near future, and more substantially in the long term, especially if equipment and labor are sourced from within the state. According to the analysis, over the 2020-2050 period, Oregon floating offshore wind facilities could support 65,000-97,000 job-years and add $6.8 billion-$9.9 billion to the state GDP (Scenario A).

  11. The Past, Present, and Potential Future of Sodium Channel Block as an Atrial Fibrillation Suppressing Strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, Martin; Nattel, Stanley

    2015-11-01

    Despite major advances in arrhythmia therapy, atrial fibrillation (AF) remains a challenge. A significant limitation in AF management is the lack of safe and effective drugs to restore and/or maintain sinus rhythm. The rational design of a new generation of AF-selective Na(+) channel blockers (NCBs) is emerging as a promising AF-suppressing strategy. Recent theoretical and experimental advances have generated insights into the mechanisms underlying AF maintenance and termination by antiarrhythmic drugs. Our understanding of antiarrhythmic drug-induced proarrhythmia has also grown in sophistication. These discoveries have created new possibilities in therapeutic targeting and renewed interest in improved NCB antiarrhythmic drugs. Recently described differences in atrial versus ventricular electrophysiology can be exploited in the prospective design of atrial-selective NCBs. Furthermore, state-dependent block has been shown to be an important modulator of NCB rate selectivity. Together, differential atrial-ventricular electrophysiological actions and state-dependent block form the backbone for the rational design of an AF-selective NCB. Synergistic combinations incorporating both NCB and block of K(+) currents may allow for further enhancement of AF selectivity. Future work on translating these basic research advances into the development of an optimized AF-selective NCB has the potential to provide safer and more effective pharmacotherapeutic options for AF, thereby fulfilling a major unmet clinical need.

  12. The 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lourenço, José; Recker, Mario

    2014-08-01

    Dengue, a vector-borne viral disease of increasing global importance, is classically associated with tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Urbanisation, globalisation and climate trends, however, are facilitating the geographic spread of its mosquito vectors, thereby increasing the risk of the virus establishing itself in previously unaffected areas and causing large-scale epidemics. On 3 October 2012, two autochthonous dengue infections were reported within the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal. During the following seven months, this first 'European' dengue outbreak caused more than 2000 local cases and 81 exported cases to mainland Europe. Here, using an ento-epidemiological mathematical framework, we estimate that the introduction of dengue to Madeira occurred around a month before the first official cases, during the period of maximum influx of airline travel, and that the naturally declining temperatures of autumn were the determining factor for the outbreak's demise in early December 2012. Using key estimates, together with local climate data, we further propose that there is little support for dengue endemicity on this island, but a high potential for future epidemic outbreaks when seeded between May and August-a period when detection of imported cases is crucial for Madeira's public health planning.

  13. The 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Lourenço

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Dengue, a vector-borne viral disease of increasing global importance, is classically associated with tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Urbanisation, globalisation and climate trends, however, are facilitating the geographic spread of its mosquito vectors, thereby increasing the risk of the virus establishing itself in previously unaffected areas and causing large-scale epidemics. On 3 October 2012, two autochthonous dengue infections were reported within the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal. During the following seven months, this first 'European' dengue outbreak caused more than 2000 local cases and 81 exported cases to mainland Europe. Here, using an ento-epidemiological mathematical framework, we estimate that the introduction of dengue to Madeira occurred around a month before the first official cases, during the period of maximum influx of airline travel, and that the naturally declining temperatures of autumn were the determining factor for the outbreak's demise in early December 2012. Using key estimates, together with local climate data, we further propose that there is little support for dengue endemicity on this island, but a high potential for future epidemic outbreaks when seeded between May and August-a period when detection of imported cases is crucial for Madeira's public health planning.

  14. The battle of Alzheimer's Disease - the beginning of the future Unleashing the potential of academic discoveries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundkvist, Johan; Halldin, Magnus M; Sandin, Johan; Nordvall, Gunnar; Forsell, Pontus; Svensson, Samuel; Jansson, Liselotte; Johansson, Gunilla; Winblad, Bengt; Ekstrand, Jonas

    2014-01-01

    Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is the most common form of dementia, affecting approximately 36 million people worldwide. To date there is no preventive or curative treatment available for AD, and in absence of major progress in therapeutic development, AD manifests a concrete socioeconomic threat. The awareness of the growing problem of AD is increasing, exemplified by the recent G8 Dementia Summit, a meeting held in order to set the stage and steer the compass for the future. Simultaneously, and paradoxically, we have seen key players in the pharmaceutical industry that have recently closed or significantly decreased their R&D spending on AD and other CNS disorders. Given the pressing need for new treatments in this area, other actors need to step-in and enter this drug discovery arena complementing the industrial efforts, in order to turn biological and technological progress into novel therapeutics. In this article, we present an example of a novel drug discovery initiative that in a non-profit setting, aims to integrate with both preclinical and clinical academic groups and pharmaceutical industry to explore the therapeutic potential of new concepts in patients, using novel biology, state of the art technologies and rapid concept testing.

  15. Future malaria spatial pattern based on the potential global warming impact in South and Southeast Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan M. Khormi

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-H climate model with the A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100 and CLIMEX software for projections to illustrate the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distributions of malaria in China, India, Indochina, Indonesia, and The Philippines based on climate variables such as temperature, moisture, heat, cold and dryness. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including geographical distribution records. The areas in which malaria has currently been detected are consistent with those showing high values of the ecoclimatic index in the CLIMEX model. The match between prediction and reality was found to be high. More than 90% of the observed malaria distribution points were associated with the currently known suitable climate conditions. Climate suitability for malaria is projected to decrease in India, southern Myanmar, southern Thailand, eastern Borneo, and the region bordering Cambodia, Malaysia and the Indonesian islands, while it is expected to increase in southern and south-eastern China and Taiwan. The climatic models for Anopheles mosquitoes presented here should be useful for malaria control, monitoring, and management, particularly considering these future climate scenarios.

  16. Clinical Data Reuse or Secondary Use: Current Status and Potential Future Progress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meystre, S M; Lovis, C; Bürkle, T; Tognola, G; Budrionis, A; Lehmann, C U

    2017-08-01

    Objective: To perform a review of recent research in clinical data reuse or secondary use, and envision future advances in this field. Methods: The review is based on a large literature search in MEDLINE (through PubMed), conference proceedings, and the ACM Digital Library, focusing only on research published between 2005 and early 2016. Each selected publication was reviewed by the authors, and a structured analysis and summarization of its content was developed. Results: The initial search produced 359 publications, reduced after a manual examination of abstracts and full publications. The following aspects of clinical data reuse are discussed: motivations and challenges, privacy and ethical concerns, data integration and interoperability, data models and terminologies, unstructured data reuse, structured data mining, clinical practice and research integration, and examples of clinical data reuse (quality measurement and learning healthcare systems). Conclusion: Reuse of clinical data is a fast-growing field recognized as essential to realize the potentials for high quality healthcare, improved healthcare management, reduced healthcare costs, population health management, and effective clinical research. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart.

  17. Future malaria spatial pattern based on the potential global warming impact in South and Southeast Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khormi, Hassan M; Kumar, Lalit

    2016-11-21

    We used the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-H climate model with the A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100 and CLIMEX software for projections to illustrate the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distributions of malaria in China, India, Indochina, Indonesia, and The Philippines based on climate variables such as temperature, moisture, heat, cold and dryness. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including geographical distribution records. The areas in which malaria has currently been detected are consistent with those showing high values of the ecoclimatic index in the CLIMEX model. The match between prediction and reality was found to be high. More than 90% of the observed malaria distribution points were associated with the currently known suitable climate conditions. Climate suitability for malaria is projected to decrease in India, southern Myanmar, southern Thailand, eastern Borneo, and the region bordering Cambodia, Malaysia and the Indonesian islands, while it is expected to increase in southern and south-eastern China and Taiwan. The climatic models for Anopheles mosquitoes presented here should be useful for malaria control, monitoring, and management, particularly considering these future climate scenarios.

  18. Current Status and Future Potential of Energy Derived from Chinese Agricultural Land: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ningning Zhai

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Energy crisis is receiving attention with regard to the global economy and environmental sustainable development. Developing new energy resources to optimize the energy supply structure has become an important measure to prevent energy shortage as well as achieving energy conservation and emission reduction in China. This study proposed the concept of energy agriculture and constructed an energy agricultural technical support system based on the analysis of energy supply and demand and China’s foreign dependence on energy resources, combined with the function of agriculture in the energy field. Manufacturing technology equipment and agricultural and forestry energy, including crop or forestry plants and animal feces, were used in the system. The current status and future potential of China’s marginal land resources, energy crop germplasm resources, and agricultural and forestry waste energy-oriented resources were analyzed. Developing the function of traditional agriculture in food production may promote China’s social, economic, and environmental sustainable development and achieve energy saving and emission reduction.

  19. Artificial intelligence in diagnosis of obstructive lung disease: current status and future potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Nilakash; Topalovic, Marko; Janssens, Wim

    2018-03-01

    The application of artificial intelligence in the diagnosis of obstructive lung diseases is an exciting phenomenon. Artificial intelligence algorithms work by finding patterns in data obtained from diagnostic tests, which can be used to predict clinical outcomes or to detect obstructive phenotypes. The purpose of this review is to describe the latest trends and to discuss the future potential of artificial intelligence in the diagnosis of obstructive lung diseases. Machine learning has been successfully used in automated interpretation of pulmonary function tests for differential diagnosis of obstructive lung diseases. Deep learning models such as convolutional neural network are state-of-the art for obstructive pattern recognition in computed tomography. Machine learning has also been applied in other diagnostic approaches such as forced oscillation test, breath analysis, lung sound analysis and telemedicine with promising results in small-scale studies. Overall, the application of artificial intelligence has produced encouraging results in the diagnosis of obstructive lung diseases. However, large-scale studies are still required to validate current findings and to boost its adoption by the medical community.

  20. Geologic evolution of the Jemez Mountains and their potential for future volcanic activity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burton, B.W.

    1982-01-01

    Geophysical and geochemical data and the geologic history of the Rio Grande rift and the vicinity of the Jemez Mountains are summarized to determine the probability of future volcanic activity in the Los Alamos, New Mexico area. The apparent cyclic nature of volcanism in the Jemez Mountains may be related to intermittent thermal inputs into the volcanic system beneath the region. The Jemez lineament, an alignment of late Cenozoic volcanic centers that crosses the rift near Los Alamos, has played an important role in the volcanic evolution of the Jemez Mountains. Geophysical data suggest that there is no active shallow magma body beneath the Valles caldera, though magma probably exists at about 15 km beneath this portion of the rift. The rate of volcanism in the Jemez Mountains during the last 10 million years has been 5 x 10/sup -9//km/sup 2//y. Lava or ash flows overriding Laboratory radioactive waste disposal sites would have little potential to release radionuclides to the environment. The probability of a new volcano intruding close enough to a radioactive waste disposal site to effect radionuclide release is 2 x 10/sup -7//y.

  1. THE POTENTIAL OF BIOCHEMISTRY EDUCATION APPS IN THE FORMATIVE ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. L. Oliveira

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and objectives: Apps can be designed to provide usage data, and most of them do. These data are usually used to map users interests and to deliver more effective ads that are more likely to result in clicks, and sales. We have applied some of these metrics to understand how can it be used to map students’ behavior and to promote a formative assessment using educational software. The purpose of a formative assessment is to monitor student learning to provide ongoing feedback that can be used by instructors and students to improve the teaching and learning process. Thus, this modality aims to help both students and instructors to identify strengths and weaknesses that need to be developed. This study aimed to describe the potential of educational apps in the formative assessment process. Material and Methods: We have implemented assessment tools embedded in three apps (ARMET, The Cell and 3D Class used to teach: 1 Metabolic Pathways; 2 Scale of the cellular structures, and 3 Concepts from techniques used in a Biochemistry Lab course. The implemented tools allow to verify on what issues there were recurring mistakes, the total number of mistakes presented, which questions they most achieved, how long they took to perform the activity and other relevant information. Results and conclusion: Educational apps can provide transparent and coherent evaluation metrics to enable instructors to systematize more consistent criteria and indicators, reducing the subjectivity of the formative assessment process and the time spent for preparation, tabulation and analysis of assessment data. This approach allows instructors to understand better where students struggle, giving to them a more effective feedback. It also helps instructor to plan interventions to help students to perform better and to achieve the learning objectives.

  2. Assessment potential wind energy in the north area of Iraq

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmed F. Hassoon

    2013-01-01

    Wind energy is renewable and environment friendly, which can be connected for various end-uses. A precise knowledge of wind energy regime is a pre-requisite for the efficient planning and implementation of any wind energy project. However, due to the absence of a reliable and accurate Iraq Wind Atlas, further studies on the assessment of wind energy are necessary. The main purpose of this paper is present and perform an investigation on the wind energy potential in the northern area of Iraq. ...

  3. Deep brain stimulation in Huntington's disease: assessment of potential targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Mayur; Deogaonkar, Milind

    2015-05-01

    Huntington's disease (HD) is an autosomal-dominant neurodegenerative disorder that has very few effective therapeutic interventions. Since the disease has a defined neural circuitry abnormality, neuromodulation could be an option. Case reports, original research, and animal model studies were selected from the databases of Medline and PubMed. All related studies published up to July 2014 were included in this review. The following search terms were used: "Deep brain stimulation," "DBS," "thalamotomy," "pallidal stimulation," and "Huntington's Disease," "HD," "chorea," or "hyperkinetic movement disorders." This review examines potential nodes in the HD circuitry that could be modulated using deep brain stimulation (DBS) therapy. With rapid evolution of imaging and ability to reach difficult targets in the brain with refined DBS technology, some phenotypes of HD could potentially be treated with DBS in the near future. Further clinical studies are warranted to validate the efficacy of neuromodulation and to determine the most optimal target for HD. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Potential Errors and Test Assessment in Software Product Line Engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hartmut Lackner

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Software product lines (SPL are a method for the development of variant-rich software systems. Compared to non-variable systems, testing SPLs is extensive due to an increasingly amount of possible products. Different approaches exist for testing SPLs, but there is less research for assessing the quality of these tests by means of error detection capability. Such test assessment is based on error injection into correct version of the system under test. However to our knowledge, potential errors in SPL engineering have never been systematically identified before. This article presents an overview over existing paradigms for specifying software product lines and the errors that can occur during the respective specification processes. For assessment of test quality, we leverage mutation testing techniques to SPL engineering and implement the identified errors as mutation operators. This allows us to run existing tests against defective products for the purpose of test assessment. From the results, we draw conclusions about the error-proneness of the surveyed SPL design paradigms and how quality of SPL tests can be improved.

  5. ASSESSMENT OF STUDENTS’ PROFESSIONAL COMPETENCIES – THE FUTURE TEACHERS OF MATHEMATICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariya B. Shashkina

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the investigation is to describe the authors’ approach to the assessment of the professional competence of the future teacher of mathematics.Methods. The methods involve comparative analysis of the Professional Standard of the teacher and the Federal State Educational Standards in teacher education, as well as the method of predictive analysis of modern educational situation.Results. Qualimetric approach to the structuring of the professional competencies of students is described; it allows concretizing the assessment object, to select the criteria and levels of its formedness, to trace the dynamics of development in the medium of profile preparation of a bachelor. The methodology of assessment a professional-profile competence of the future mathematics teachers is proposed; examples of the competence-assessment tools are provided.Scientific novelty. The study gives a detailed analysis of developing the innovative approach to competencies assessment as metasubject learning outcomes.Practical significance. The proposed method of competencies assessment can be used in the mathematical preparation of the future mathematics teacher, and can serve as a basis for monitoring the professional competencies of students.

  6. Evaluating potentials for future generation off-shore wind-power outside Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benestad, R. E.; Haugen, J.; Haakenstad, H.

    2012-12-01

    With todays critical need of renewable energy sources, it is naturally to look towards wind power. With the long coast of Norway, there is a large potential for wind farms offshore Norway. Although there are more challenges with offshore wind energy installations compared to wind farms on land, the offshore wind is generally higher, and there is also higher persistence of wind speed values in the power generating classes. I planning offshore wind farms, there is a need of evaluation of the wind resources, the wind climatology and possible future changes. In this aspect, we use data from regional climate model runs performed in the European ENSEMBLE-project (van der Linden and J.F.B. Mitchell, 2009). In spite of increased reliability in RCMs in the recent years, the simulations still suffer from systematic model errors, therefore the data has to be corrected before using them in wind resource analyses. In correcting the wind speeds from the RCMs, we will use wind speeds from a Norwegian high resolution wind- and wave- archive, NORA10 (Reistad et al 2010), to do quantile mapping (Themeβl et. al. 2012). The quantile mapping is performed individually for each regional simulation driven by ERA40-reanalysis from the ENSEMBLE-project corrected against NORA10. The same calibration is then used to the belonging regional climate scenario. The calibration is done for each grid cell in the domain and for each day of the year centered in a +/-15 day window to make an empirical cumulative density function for each day of the year. The quantile mapping of the scenarios provide us with a new wind speed data set for the future, more correct compared to the raw ENSEMBLE scenarios. References: Reistad M., Ø. Breivik, H. Haakenstad, O. J. Aarnes, B. R. Furevik and J-R Bidlo, 2010, A high-resolution hindcast of wind and waves for The North Sea, The Norwegian Sea and The Barents Sea. J. Geophys. Res., 116. doi:10.1029/2010JC006402. Themessl M. J., A. Gobiet and A. Leuprecht, 2012

  7. Intellectual Assessment of Children and Youth in Japan: Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishikuma, Toshinori; Matsuda, Osamu; Fujita, Kazuhiro; Ueno, Kazuhiko

    2016-01-01

    This article briefly reviews the history of intellectual assessment with children and youth in Japan, as well as current practices and future directions. The history of intelligence test use in Japan began in the early 20th century. Since the 21st century, three major intelligence tests, namely, the Wechsler Intelligence Scales, the Kaufman…

  8. Ability of Early Literacy Measures to Predict Future State Assessment Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utchell, Lynn A.; Schmitt, Ara J.; McCallum, Elizabeth; McGoey, Kara E.; Piselli, Kate

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which early literacy measures administered in kindergarten and Oral Reading Fluency (ORF) measures administered in Grade 1 are related to and predict future state reading assessment performances up to 7 years later. Results indicated that early literacy and ORF performances were…

  9. Future of America's Forests and Rangelands: Update to the 2010 Resources Planning Act Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forest Service U.S. Department of Agriculture

    2016-01-01

    The Update to the 2010 Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment summarizes findings about the status, trends, and projected future of forests, rangelands, wildlife, biodiversity, water, outdoor recreation, and urban forests, as well as the effects of climate change upon these resources. Varying assumptions about population and economic growth, land use change, and...

  10. Intellectual Assessment of Children and Youth in the United States of America: Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kranzler, John H.; Benson, Nicholas; Floyd, Randy G.

    2016-01-01

    This article briefly reviews the history of intellectual assessment of children and youth in the United States of America, as well as current practices and future directions. Although administration of intelligence tests in the schools has been a longstanding practice in the United States, their use has also elicited sharp controversy over time.…

  11. Impact assessment of the carbon reduction strategy for transport, low carbon transport : a greener future

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-07-01

    This is an impact assessment for the Carbon Reduction Strategy for Transport (DfT, 2009), Low Carbon Transport: A Greener Future, which is part of the UK Governments wider UK Low Carbon Transition Plan (DECC, 2009), Britains path to ta...

  12. Radar imagery interpretation to assess the hydrocarbon potential of four sites in the Philippines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1988-11-17

    The Republic of the Philippines is intensely interested in the identification, development, and conservation of natural resources. In keeping with this, the Government of the Philippines has recently completed a nationwide sedimentary basin evaluation program to assess hydrocarbon potential and assist in future exploration activities. This program of collection and interpretation of the radar imagery was designed to augment and complement the existing data base. The primary objective of the project was to further the goals of international energy development by aiding the Republic of the Philippines in the assessment of potential petroleum and geothermal prospects within the areas imaged. Secondary goals were to assist the Republic of the Philippines in utilizing state-of-the-art radar remote sensing technology for resource exploration, and to train key Philippines scientists in the use of imaging radar data. 29 refs., 30 figs., 14 tabs.

  13. MEDIA ENVIRONMENT AS FACTOR OF REALIZATION OF CREATIVE POTENTIAL OF FUTURE TEACHERS` IN THE MOUNTAIN SCHOOLS OF THE UKRAINIAN CARPATHIANS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alla Lebedieva

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The article shows up “media environment” as a factor of future teachers` creative potential realization in the mountainous schools of the Ukrainian Carpathians. The problem of using media environment as a factor of future teachers` creative potential in the mountainous schools of the Ukrainian Carpathians and the ways of its optimization is the main point of this research. Highlights ways to modernize social and professional orientation training of students in the creative process of nature is situates in information education and educational environment of high school. We consider the causal link use media environment as a factor of future teachers` creative potential and complexity of the teacher in the mountainous schools of the Ukrainian Carpathians. The basic function of the media environment are extensity, instrumental, communicative, interactive, multimedia. Reveals some aspects of training students to creatively active teaching process we describe subjects with objective possibilities in the formation of professional skills of future teachers` and which directly affect the realization of creative potential – “Ukrainian folk art”, “Basic recitation and rhetoric”, “The basis of pedagogical creativity”. The necessity of creating a full-fledged media environment in higher education is important condition of successful education as an important factor that allows the efficiency of the creative potential of future teachers` in the mountainous schools of the Ukrainian Carpathians.

  14. Assessing Tourism Potential In Bhaktapur Durbar Square, Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramesh Neupane

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Tourism is one of the most promising driver and contributor of the world economy having significant role in sustainable development, economic upliftment and social benefits. It has the potential to contribute towards environmental protection and poverty reduction. Prior to investment in tourism, concerned authorities must know the condition of respective tourist resources, their attractiveness and levels of touristic demand. Very few studies in Nepal have made an effort to quantify the tourism potential in cultural, historical and religious sites such as Bhaktapur Durbar Square. With an objective to assess the tourism potential of Bhaktapur Durbar Square using Weighted Sum Method, this study was carried out from start of June to the end of July in 2013. For this purpose, questionnaire survey with tourists, private businesses and public sector institutions; focus group discussion and key informant interview with tourism enterpreneur and local government officer was carried out. The tourism potential was found to be high with a strength of exceptionally rich cultural, historical and religious heritage, favourable geographical situation, positive image of local Newari food products and friendly and welcoming local people. The areas of weaknesses were lack of tourism infrastructures and services, lack of tourist information and weak management of tourist area. Hence, to utilise the tourism potential of Bhaktapur Durbar Square to the fullest for the economic upliftment of its inhabitants, promotional activities such as tourism fairs, festivals, cultural dances and events should be conducted at regular intervals with prompt security services. International Journal of Environment, Volume-2, Issue-1, Sep-Nov 2013, Pages 250-261 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ije.v2i1.9225

  15. Assessment of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over Himalayan region for future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P.

    2017-07-01

    Precipitation is one of the important climatic indicators in the global climate system. Probable changes in monsoonal (June, July, August and September; hereafter JJAS) mean precipitation in the Himalayan region for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways or RCPs) and two future time slices (near and far) are estimated from a set of regional climate simulations performed under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) project. For each of the CORDEX-SA simulations and their ensemble, projections of near future (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099) precipitation climatology with respect to corresponding present climate (1970-2005) over Himalayan region are presented. The variability existing over each of the future time slices is compared with the present climate variability to determine the future changes in inter annual fluctuations of monsoonal mean precipitation. The long-term (1970-2099) trend (mm/day/year) of monsoonal mean precipitation spatially distributed as well as averaged over Himalayan region is analyzed to detect any change across twenty-first century as well as to assess model uncertainty in simulating the precipitation changes over this period. The altitudinal distribution of difference in trend of future precipitation from present climate existing over each of the time slices is also studied to understand any elevation dependency of change in precipitation pattern. Except for a part of the Hindu-Kush area in western Himalayan region which shows drier condition, the CORDEX-SA experiments project in general wetter/drier conditions in near future for western/eastern Himalayan region, a scenario which gets further intensified in far future. Although, a gradually increasing precipitation trend is seen throughout the twenty-first century in carbon intensive scenarios, the distribution of trend with elevation presents a very complex picture with lower elevations

  16. [Clinical assessment of physical dependence potential of dihydroetorphine hydrochloride (DHE)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Y; Li, M; Sun, W L; Cai, Z J

    1994-01-01

    This paper reports the DHE substitution clinical trial in 38 heroin addicts. The CINA (Clinical Institute Narcotic Assessment) scale was used to assess physical dependence potential. The CINA scale contains 10 opioid withdrawal signs (nausea, vomiting, gooseflesh, sweating, restlessness, tremor, larcrimation, nasal congestion, yawning, changes in heart rate and systolic blood pressure) and 3 opiate withdrawal symptoms (abdominal pain, muscle pain and feeling hot or cold). For each subject admitted to the Drug Detoxification and Treatment Center his (her) status on each of the 13 items of CINA were immediately rated. Then, naloxone 0.4 mg was injected iv to precipitate withdrawal symptoms and at 5, 10, 15 min after the naloxone injection, the CINA score of each patient was rated again. The differences among the scores of pre- and post-naloxone injection is a measurement of the degree of withdrawal symptoms. Then, a single dose of DHE was administered sublingually to each patient, all withdrawal symptoms disappeared. These results show that DHE can compete with naloxone for opioid receptors. A good dose-response relationship was found between the 100% suppressive withdrawal sign doses of DHE and the degree of withdrawal sign in heroin addicts. The physical dependence potential of DHE given to heroin addicts sublingually was probably more than that of methadone given to heroin addicts orally by making reference to the report of Dr. Peachy.

  17. Evaluating Cloud and Precipitation Processes in Numerical Models using Current and Potential Future Satellite Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Heever, S. C.; Tao, W. K.; Skofronick Jackson, G.; Tanelli, S.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Petersen, W. A.; Kummerow, C. D.

    2015-12-01

    Cloud, aerosol and precipitation processes play a fundamental role in the water and energy cycle. It is critical to accurately represent these microphysical processes in numerical models if we are to better predict cloud and precipitation properties on weather through climate timescales. Much has been learned about cloud properties and precipitation characteristics from NASA satellite missions such as TRMM, CloudSat, and more recently GPM. Furthermore, data from these missions have been successfully utilized in evaluating the microphysical schemes in cloud-resolving models (CRMs) and global models. However, there are still many uncertainties associated with these microphysics schemes. These uncertainties can be attributed, at least in part, to the fact that microphysical processes cannot be directly observed or measured, but instead have to be inferred from those cloud properties that can be measured. Evaluation of microphysical parameterizations are becoming increasingly important as enhanced computational capabilities are facilitating the use of more sophisticated schemes in CRMs, and as future global models are being run on what has traditionally been regarded as cloud-resolving scales using CRM microphysical schemes. In this talk we will demonstrate how TRMM, CloudSat and GPM data have been used to evaluate different aspects of current CRM microphysical schemes, providing examples of where these approaches have been successful. We will also highlight CRM microphysical processes that have not been well evaluated and suggest approaches for addressing such issues. Finally, we will introduce a potential NASA satellite mission, the Cloud and Precipitation Processes Mission (CAPPM), which would facilitate the development and evaluation of different microphysical-dynamical feedbacks in numerical models.

  18. Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

    2015-01-01

    Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global

  19. Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

    2015-08-01

    Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global

  20. Simulations of potential future conditions in the cache critical groundwater area, Arkansas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashid, Haveen M.; Clark, Brian R.; Mahdi, Hanan H.; Rifai, Hanadi S.; Al-Shukri, Haydar J.

    2015-01-01

    A three-dimensional finite-difference model for part of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in the Cache Critical Groundwater Area of eastern Arkansas was constructed to simulate potential future conditions of groundwater flow. The objectives of this study were to test different pilot point distributions to find reasonable estimates of aquifer properties for the alluvial aquifer, to simulate flux from rivers, and to demonstrate how changes in pumping rates for different scenarios affect areas of long-term water-level declines over time. The model was calibrated using the parameter estimation code. Additional calibration was achieved using pilot points with regularization and singular value decomposition. Pilot point parameter values were estimated at a number of discrete locations in the study area to obtain reasonable estimates of aquifer properties. Nine pumping scenarios for the years 2011 to 2020 were tested and compared to the simulated water-level heads from 2010. Hydraulic conductivity values from pilot point calibration ranged between 42 and 173 m/d. Specific yield values ranged between 0.19 and 0.337. Recharge rates ranged between 0.00009 and 0.0006 m/d. The model was calibrated using 2,322 hydraulic head measurements for the years 2000 to 2010 from 150 observation wells located in the study area. For all scenarios, the volume of water depleted ranged between 5.7 and 23.3 percent, except in Scenario 2 (minimum pumping rates), in which the volume increased by 2.5 percent.

  1. Do Potential Past and Future Events Activate the Left-Right Mental Timeline?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, Roberto; Santiago, Julio

    2017-01-01

    Current evidence provides support for the idea that time is mentally represented by spatial means, i.e., a left-right mental timeline. However, available studies have tested only factual events, i.e., those which have occurred in the past or can be predicted to occur in the future. In the present study we tested whether past and future potential…

  2. Potential Future Risk of Cholera Due to Climate Change in Northern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prof

    Abstract. Cholera is one of the infectious diseases that remains a major health burden in West-. Africa and especially in Nigeria. Several studies have raised concern that climate change may exacerbate the risk of the disease in the future. Projecting the future risk of this disease is essential, especially for regions where the ...

  3. Potential future risk of cholera due to climate change in northern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Cholera is one of the infectious diseases that remains a major health burden in West-Africa and especially in Nigeria. Several studies have raised concern that climate change may exacerbate the risk of the disease in the future. Projecting the future risk of this disease is essential, especially for regions where the projected ...

  4. Transportation in America's future: potentials for the next half century. Part 1. Societal context. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curry, D.; Carlson, R.; Henderson, C.; Mandel, T.; Mitchell, A.

    1977-06-01

    The report describes four potential socioeconomic futures for the United States and their implications for transportation through 2025. The futures--designated Success, Foul Weather, Disciplined Society, and Transformation--vary particularly in economic performance, climate, institutional structure, and personal values. For each future, Part 1 provides a detailed narrative account or scenario, accompanied by separate analyses of the energy, demographic, economic, and urban implications of each scenario. Part 2 provides demand forecasts for most modes; technology forecasts for twelve transportation modes and seven specific systems or technologies; and analyses of six critical transportation problems.

  5. Facial nerve action potentials: a study to assess waveform reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Axon, P R; Ramsden, R T

    2000-11-01

    To assess the reliability of the orthodromic facial nerve action potential (FNAP), recorded from the intratemporal portion of the facial nerve on stimulation within the cerebellopontine angle. Prospective study. Tertiary referral center. Ten consecutive patients undergoing translabyrinthine resection of vestibular schwannoma. Diagnostic. Ten consecutive FNAPs were recorded on stimulation of the facial nerve within the cerebellopontine angle. The FNAP recording probe was placed directly on the nerve surface after the fallopian canal was opened at the second genu. Ten consecutive compound muscle action potentials (CMAPs) were recorded simultaneously from surface electrodes overlying the facial musculature, by use of a standardized electrode placement technique. The stimulating and recording equipment were removed (excluding CMAP surface electrodes) and reapplied, and FNAP and CMAP data were recorded for a second time (test/retest). Peak-to-peak amplitudes of all waveforms were calculated. The average FNAP peak-to-peak amplitude for all patients was larger than the CMAP peak-to-peak amplitude (2.60 mV and 1.07 mV, respectively). Random effects analysis of variance was performed to assess the individual components of variation. This showed that CMAP was less variable than FNAP for replicate error (10 consecutive FNAPs and CMAPs) and test/retest error. However, subject variance was less for FNAP, where subject variance was by far the largest contributor to overall variation. The reliability coefficient for FNAP was 0.995 and for the CMAP was 0.982, where absolute reliability is 1.0. These data confirm that the FNAP, recorded by the technique described here, is a reliable waveform when compared with the CMAP and is a valid method for assessing facial nerve function.

  6. Assessing the wind energy potential projects in Algeria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Himri, Y. [Electricity and Gas National Enterprise (SONELGAZ) Bechar (Algeria); Laboratory Renewable Energy and Thermal, University of Bechar (Algeria); Himri, S. [University of Bechar, Department of Fundamental Sciences (Algeria); Boudghene Stambouli, A. [University of Sciences and Technology of Oran, Department of Electronic (Algeria)

    2009-10-15

    A research program is under way in the SONELGAZ R and D Office with the aim of studying the potential of wind energy in Algeria. This paper presents an analysis of recently collected hourly wind data over a period of almost 5 years between 2002 and 2006, from four selected sites as well as preliminary evaluation of the wind energy potential. The results showed that Tindouf and Dely Brahim sites have higher wind energy potential with annual wind speed average of 5.8 and 5.7 m/s respectively at height of 17 m above ground level (AGL). The two sites are candidates for remote area wind energy applications. The Ouled Fayet and Marsa Ben M'hidi sites wind speed data indicated that the two sites have lower annual wind speed averages between 3.9-4.7 m/s at 17 m AGL. That makes the two sites candidates for installation of windmills to provide water for drinking and small scale irrigation purposes Brief description of the equipment, is also performed. Finally the aim of this work is only a preliminary study in order to assess wind energy analysis in Algeria and give useful insights to engineers and experts dealing with wind energy. (author)

  7. Reef Fish Survey Techniques: Assessing the Potential for Standardizing Methodologies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zachary R Caldwell

    Full Text Available Dramatic changes in populations of fishes living on coral reefs have been documented globally and, in response, the research community has initiated efforts to assess and monitor reef fish assemblages. A variety of visual census techniques are employed, however results are often incomparable due to differential methodological performance. Although comparability of data may promote improved assessment of fish populations, and thus management of often critically important nearshore fisheries, to date no standardized and agreed-upon survey method has emerged. This study describes the use of methods across the research community and identifies potential drivers of method selection. An online survey was distributed to researchers from academic, governmental, and non-governmental organizations internationally. Although many methods were identified, 89% of survey-based projects employed one of three methods-belt transect, stationary point count, and some variation of the timed swim method. The selection of survey method was independent of the research design (i.e., assessment goal and region of study, but was related to the researcher's home institution. While some researchers expressed willingness to modify their current survey protocols to more standardized protocols (76%, their willingness decreased when methodologies were tied to long-term datasets spanning five or more years. Willingness to modify current methodologies was also less common among academic researchers than resource managers. By understanding both the current application of methods and the reported motivations for method selection, we hope to focus discussions towards increasing the comparability of quantitative reef fish survey data.

  8. Assessing the Impacts of Future Climate Change on Protected Area Networks: A Method to Simulate Individual Species' Responses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willis, Stephen; Hole, Dave; Collingham, Yvonne

    2009-01-01

    . In this article, we provide a method to simulate the occurrence of species of conservation concern in protected areas, which could be used as a first-step approach to assess the potential impacts of climate change upon such species in protected areas. We use species-climate response surface models to relate...... technique provides good simulations of current species' occurrence in protected areas. We then use basic habitat data for IBAs along with habitat preference data for the species to reduce over-prediction and further improve predictive ability. This approach can be used with future climate change scenarios...... Area (IBA) network is a series of sites designed to conserve avian diversity in the face of current threats from factors such as habitat loss and fragmentation. However, in common with other networks, the IBA network is based on the assumption that the climate will remain unchanged in the future...

  9. Evaluation of Stochastic Rainfall Models in Capturing Climate Variability for Future Drought and Flood Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, A. F. M. K.; Lockart, N.; Willgoose, G. R.; Kuczera, G. A.; Kiem, A.; Nadeeka, P. M.

    2016-12-01

    One of the key objectives of stochastic rainfall modelling is to capture the full variability of climate system for future drought and flood risk assessment. However, it is not clear how well these models can capture the future climate variability when they are calibrated to Global/Regional Climate Model data (GCM/RCM) as these datasets are usually available for very short future period/s (e.g. 20 years). This study has assessed the ability of two stochastic daily rainfall models to capture climate variability by calibrating them to a dynamically downscaled RCM dataset in an east Australian catchment for 1990-2010, 2020-2040, and 2060-2080 epochs. The two stochastic models are: (1) a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model, which we developed in a previous study and (2) a semi-parametric MC model developed by Mehrotra and Sharma (2007). Our hierarchical model uses stochastic parameters of MC and Gamma distribution, while the semi-parametric model uses a modified MC process with memory of past periods and kernel density estimation. This study has generated multiple realizations of rainfall series by using parameters of each model calibrated to the RCM dataset for each epoch. The generated rainfall series are used to generate synthetic streamflow by using a SimHyd hydrology model. Assessing the synthetic rainfall and streamflow series, this study has found that both stochastic models can incorporate a range of variability in rainfall as well as streamflow generation for both current and future periods. However, the hierarchical model tends to overestimate the multiyear variability of wet spell lengths (therefore, is less likely to simulate long periods of drought and flood), while the semi-parametric model tends to overestimate the mean annual rainfall depths and streamflow volumes (hence, simulated droughts are likely to be less severe). Sensitivity of these limitations of both stochastic models in terms of future drought and flood risk assessment will be discussed.

  10. Neural correlates of self-appraisals in the near and distant future: an event-related potential study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yangmei Luo

    Full Text Available To investigate perceptual and neural correlates of future self-appraisals as a function of temporal distance, event-related potentials (ERPs were recorded while participants (11 women, eight men made judgments about the applicability of trait adjectives to their near future selves (i.e., one month from now and their distant future selves (i.e., three years from now. Behavioral results indicated people used fewer positive adjectives, more negative adjectives, recalled more specific events coming to mind and felt more psychologically connected to the near future self than the distant future self. Electrophysiological results demonstrated that negative trait adjectives elicited more positive ERP deflections than did positive trait adjectives in the interval between 550 and 800 ms (late positive component within the near future self condition. However, within the same interval, there were no significant differences between negative and positive traits adjectives in the distant future self condition. The results suggest that negative emotional processing in future self-appraisals is modulated by temporal distance, consistent with predictions of construal level theory.

  11. The potential impact of gut microbiota on your health:Current status and future challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirisinha, Stitaya

    2016-12-01

    -communicable diseases like obesity, metabolic syndromes (e.g., diabetes and cardiovascular diseases), allergy and other inflammatory diseases. Emerging evidence from more recent studies also demonstrate the existence of a bidirectional communication route linking gut and microbiota with brain, thus suggesting that these microbes may play a role in neurological disorders as well as in host perception, behavior and emotional response. However, whether the observed alteration of the microbiota profile in these diverse conditions is the cause or the consequence of the disease remains to be established. These observations imply that it may be possible to design new strategies for the management of diseases by manipulating gut microbiota. The common practice now available is the use of probiotics to rehabilitate gut ecosystem. The microbiota-based therapeutics like fecal transplantation for the treatment of recurrent antibiotic-resistant Clostridium difficile infection is now under clinical trial and reported to be highly successful. In the next decade, we will probably see even more exciting approaches, for example, using advanced microbiota engineering technologies to create "intelligent" or "smart" bacteria for use in diagnosis, prevention, prediction and treatment of inflammatory diseases and possibly of some gastrointestinal cancers. The microbiota-based therapeutics together with personalized medicine may be the most accurate and optimal strategy for the future treatment of some difficult-to-manage diseases. However, many challenges remain to be solved before the translational potential of this new knowledge can be implemented clinically. In this review, I highlight some important recent developments and advances that contribute to our understanding in the role of microbiota in human health and disease and on how to best manipulate the microbiome to promote greater human health.

  12. Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks under future climate and land cover changes in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yigini, Yusuf; Panagos, Panos

    2016-07-01

    Soil organic carbon plays an important role in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems, variations in soil organic carbon stocks are very important for the ecosystem. In this study, a geostatistical model was used for predicting current and future soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe. The first phase of the study predicts current soil organic carbon content by using stepwise multiple linear regression and ordinary kriging and the second phase of the study projects the soil organic carbon to the near future (2050) by using a set of environmental predictors. We demonstrate here an approach to predict present and future soil organic carbon stocks by using climate, land cover, terrain and soil data and their projections. The covariates were selected for their role in the carbon cycle and their availability for the future model. The regression-kriging as a base model is predicting current SOC stocks in Europe by using a set of covariates and dense SOC measurements coming from LUCAS Soil Database. The base model delivers coefficients for each of the covariates to the future model. The overall model produced soil organic carbon maps which reflect the present and the future predictions (2050) based on climate and land cover projections. The data of the present climate conditions (long-term average (1950-2000)) and the future projections for 2050 were obtained from WorldClim data portal. The future climate projections are the recent climate projections mentioned in the Fifth Assessment IPCC report. These projections were extracted from the global climate models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest an overall increase in SOC stocks by 2050 in Europe (EU26) under all climate and land cover scenarios, but the extent of the increase varies between the climate model and emissions scenarios. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Preliminary assessment of potential CDM early start projects in Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyers, S.; Sathaye, J.; Lehman, B.; Schumacher, K.; van Vliet, O.; Moreira, J.R.

    2000-11-01

    The Brazil/US Aspen Global Forum on Climate Change Policies and Programs has facilitated a dialogue between key Brazil and US public and private sector leaders on the subject of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). With support from the US government, a cooperative effort between Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the University of Sao Paulo conducted an assessment of a number of projects put forth by Brazilian sponsors. Initially, we gathered information and conducted a screening assessment for ten projects in the energy sector and six projects in the forestry sector. Some of the projects appeared to offer greater potential to be attractive for CDM, or had better information available. We then conducted a more detailed assessment of 12 of these projects, and two other projects that were submitted after the initial screening. An important goal was to assess the potential impact of Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) on the financial performance of projects. With the exception of the two forestry-based fuel displacement projects, the impact of CERs on the internal rate of return (IRR) is fairly small. This is true for both the projects that displace grid electricity and those that displace local (diesel-based) electricity production. The relative effect of CERs is greater for projects whose IRR without CERs is low. CERs have a substantial effect on the IRR of the two short-rotation forestry energy substitution projects. One reason is that the biofuel displaces coke and oil, both of which are carbon-intensive. Another factor is that the product of these projects (charcoal and woodfuel, respectively) is relatively low value, so the revenue from carbon credits has a strong relative impact. CERs also have a substantial effect on the NPV of the carbon sequestration projects. Financial and other barriers pose a challenge for implementation of most of the projects. In most cases, the sponsor lacks sufficient capital, and loans are available only at high interest

  14. A systematic review of the potential herbal sources of future drugs effective in oxidant-related diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasani-Ranjbar, Shirin; Larijani, Bagher; Abdollahi, Mohammad

    2009-03-01

    This review focuses on the medicinal plants growing and having history of folk medicine in Iran and found effective as anti free radical damage in animal or human. Embase, Scopus, Pubmed, Web of Science, Google Scholar, IranMedex, and SID databases were searched up to 2 February 2008. The search terms were antioxidant or "lipid peroxidation" and "plant, medicinal plant, herb, traditional, natural or herbal medicine" limited to Iran. Studies that assessed effects on cell lines or isolated organs, fetal toxicity, and reviews or letters were excluded. Antioxidative effect and lipid peroxidation inhibition were the key outcomes. Forty-six animal studies on the efficacy of medicinal plants were reviewed. Lipid peroxidation was reduced in different clinical circumstances by Ferula szovitsiana, Nigella sativa, Rosa damascene petal, Phlomis anisodonta, Rosemary, Zataria multiflora Boiss, Saffron, Amirkabiria odorastissima mozaffarian, Ficus carica Linn., Ziziphora clinopoides, Carica papaya, Chichorium intybus, Turmer, Eugenol, Curcumin, and Pistacia vera L. Human studies showed that Cinnamomum zeylanicum and Echium amoenum Fisch & C.A. Mey reduce lipid peroxidation and improve total antioxidant power in healthy subjects. Improvement of blood lipid profile was shown by Silybum marianum, garlic, and wheat germ. Amongst these useful herbs, some like Cinnamon, Silybum marianum, Garlic, Nigella, and Echium seem potential targets of future effective drugs for diseases in which free radical damage play a pathogenical role.

  15. Future integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment considering land use / land cover and climate change using DRASTIC and SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, W.; Engel, B.; Chaubey, I.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change causes significant changes to temperature regimes and precipitation patterns across the world. Such alterations in climate pose serious risks for not only inland freshwater ecosystems but also groundwater systems, and may adversely affect numerous critical services they provide to humans. All groundwater results from precipitation, and precipitation is affected by climate change. Climate change is also influenced by land use / land cover (LULC) change and vice versa. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, climate change is caused by global warming which is generated by the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere. LULC change is a major driving factor causing an increase in GHG emissions. LULC change data (years 2006-2100) will be produced by the Land Transformation Model (LTM) which simulates spatial patterns of LULC change over time. MIROC5 (years 2006-2100) will be obtained considering GCMs and ensemble characteristics such as resolution and trend of temperature and precipitation which is a consistency check with observed data from local weather stations and historical data from GCMs output data. Thus, MIROC5 will be used to account for future climate change scenarios and relationship between future climate change and alteration of groundwater quality in this study. For efficient groundwater resources management, integrated aquifer vulnerability assessments (= intrinsic vulnerability + hazard potential assessment) are required. DRASTIC will be used to evaluate intrinsic vulnerability, and aquifer hazard potential will be evaluated by Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) which can simulate pollution potential from surface and transport properties of contaminants. Thus, for effective integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment for LULC and climate change in the Midwestern United States, future projected LULC and climate data from the LTM and GCMs will be incorporated with DRASTIC and SWAT. It is

  16. Assessment of potential solder candidates for high temperature applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    . The corrosion surface morphology and also the corrosion products were analyzed using SEM. Focus in particular has been given to the property of corrosion resistance since corrosion resistance is a major issue for lead-free solder alloys. The electric field experienced by the solders during usage further...... of the package with different solders of different melting temperatures. High Pb containing alloys where the lead levels can be above 85% by weight, is one of the solders currently being used in this technology. Responding to market pressure i.e. need for green electronic products there is now an increasing...... pressure to eliminate lead containing materials despite the fact that materials for high Pb containing alloys are currently not affected by any legislations. A tentative assessment was carried out to determine the potential solder candidates for high temperature applications based on the solidification...

  17. Coastal sea level variability in the eastern English Channel: Potentialities for future SWOT applicability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turki, Imen; Laignel, Benoit; Chevalier, Laetitia; Costa, Stephane

    2014-05-01

    Scientists and engineers need to understand the sea level variability in order to provide better estimates of the sea level rise for coastal defense using tide gauges and radar altimetry missions. The natural limitation of the tide gauge records is their geographical sparsity and confinement to coastlines. The future Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will be launched in 2015 over a period of 5 years and will be designated to address this issue. This research was carried out in the framework of the program Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) which is a partnership between NASA and CNES. Using a series of statistical analyses, we point to characterize the sea level variability in the eastern English Channel (western France) from four tide gauges in Dunkirk, Dieppe, Le Havre and Cherbourg for the period 1964-2012. To assess the extent to which tide gauge point observations represent tide gauge data, we compare tide gauge records to SWOT measurements in their vicinity. Results have shown that the bimodality of the sea level, provided by the distribution analysis, can be reproduced by SWOT measurements with an overestimation of both modes and also the extreme values. The rate of the linear regression was also overestimated from 1.7-4 mm/yr to 2.6-5.4 mm/yr. The continuous wavelet transform of sea level records has shown the large-scale variability of annual (1-year band) and interannual cycles (2-6- and 6-12-year bands) in sea level, which can be explained by oceanographic and hydrological factors. High frequency dynamics of the sea level variability at short time-scales were extracted from SWOT measurements. They provide a good survey of the surge events (band of 3-4 months) and the spring-neap tidal cycle (band of 28 days). Then, tide gauges should be used in conjunction with satellite data to infer the full time-scale variability. Further studies are needed to refine the SWOT applicability in coastal areas. Key words: coastal zone, sea level

  18. Potential Impacts of EOS-Aura Ozone Observations in Future Reanalyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wargan, K.; Pawson, S.; Olsen, M. A.; Witte, J. C.; Ziemke, J. R.; Douglass, A. R.

    2013-12-01

    As a crucial component of Earth's radiative budget, ozone is included in atmospheric reanalyses. Routine satellite observations of backscattered solar radiation (SBUV and TOMS datasets) provide long-term, cross-calibrated ozone records from a series of satellites, but do not have sufficient vertical resolution to resolve the sharp ozone gradients near the tropopause. Capturing this profile structure is essential for separating the stratospheric and tropospheric ozone distributions, which is important as we search for a full assessment of long-term changes in tropospheric ozone. As an important, chemically active pollutant, tropospheric ozone is known to be changing as emissions of its precursors (e.g., oxides of nitrogen) are controlled, but global impacts of such changes are complicated by the importance of the stratosphere as a source for ozone in the troposphere, as well as the roles of the lightning-produced nitrogen monoxide sources and of sinks due to chemical reactions and surface deposition. The EOS-Aura data record provides (to date) eight years of observations of total ozone column (from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument, OMI) and profiles (from the Microwave Limb Sounder, MLS). A low-resolution (2 by 2.5 degree), eight-year long assimilation experiment has been performed as a test for upcoming GMAO reanalyses, which will have higher (half-degree) spatial resolution. The analysis focuses on two aspects of the assimilated product: the degree to which this assimilation correctly separates the lower stratospheric and tropospheric air masses, and the quality of the assimilated tropospheric ozone column. There is a very good agreement between the assimilated product and independent data from ozonesondes and the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder instrument. The analysis emphasizes the consistency of the assimilated ozone with temperature and dynamics, including estimates of the strength of the stratospheric ozone source for the troposphere. While these

  19. Assessing the resources and mitigation potential of European forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasenauer, Hubert; Neumann, Mathias; Moreno, Adam; Running, Steve

    2017-04-01

    also use this data to examine climate limitations on potential forest structure, relevant for assessing potential timber assortments or suitability as wildlife habitat. The results suggest: (i) Boreal forests are limited by minimum temperature, the Mediterranean forests by maximum temperature and temperate forests by both temperature and precipitation. As a result of changing climate during the last 50 years, the potential average diameter at breast height, which can be achieved in Europe, has decreased by 5.0 %. A similar result is evident for the potential basal area per hectare with a decrease of 6.5 %. (ii) European forests exhibit an annual average carbon uptake of 577 gC/m2/year, which can be considered as the carbon sequestration potential and/or available resource for the increasing demand of a growing bio-economy.

  20. Assessing the standard Molybdenum projector augmented wave VASP potentials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mattsson, Ann E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Multi-Scale Science

    2014-07-01

    Density Functional Theory (DFT) based Equation of State (EOS) construction is a prominent part of Sandia’s capabilities to support engineering sciences. This capability is based on augmenting experimental data with information gained from computational investigations, especially in those parts of the phase space where experimental data is hard, dangerous, or expensive to obtain. A key part of the success of the Sandia approach is the fundamental science work supporting the computational capability. Not only does this work enhance the capability to perform highly accurate calculations but it also provides crucial insight into the limitations of the computational tools, providing high confidence in the results even where results cannot be, or have not yet been, validated by experimental data. This report concerns the key ingredient of projector augmented-wave (PAW) potentials for use in pseudo-potential computational codes. Using the tools discussed in SAND2012-7389 we assess the standard Vienna Ab-initio Simulation Package (VASP) PAWs for Molybdenum.

  1. Threat Assessment of Potential Terrorist Attacks to the Transport Infrastructure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Nowacki

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents threat assessment of potential terrorist attacks to the transport infrastructure. The range of transportation infrastructure has spread and includes railway, inland waterways, road, maritime, air, intermodal transport infrastructure and intelligent transport systems (ITS. ITS service is the provision of an ITS application through a well-defined organisational and operational framework with the aim of contributing to the user safety, efficiency, comfort and/or to facilitate or support transport and travel operations. Terrorism means acts of violence committed by groups that view themselves as victimized by some notable historical wrong. Although these groups have no formal connection with governments, they usually have the financial and moral backing of sympathetic governments. Typically, they stage unexpected attacks on civilian targets, including transport infrastructure, with the aim of sowing fear and confusion. Based on the analyses, transportation infrastructure is potentially threatened with terrorism attacks, especially road and rail infrastructure (about 23 %, and to a smaller degree the maritime and air transport infrastructure (about 2 %. There were 90,3% of incidents involve land transport (74,5% – vehicles, 9,5% – buses, 6,3% - rail covered the 41-year period 1967-2007 in the USA. Legal steps to fight terrorism have been taken on the international level, furthermore, some institutions have been established for this purpose.

  2. Assessing the Potential of Stratospheric Balloons for Planetary Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kremic, Tibor; Hibbitts, Karl; Young, Eliot; Landis, Robert; Noll, Keith; Baines, Kevin

    2013-01-01

    Recent developments in high altitude balloon platform capabilities, specifically long duration flights in excess of 50 days at over 100,000 ft and precision pointing with performance at the arc sec level or better have raised the question whether this platform can be utilized for high-value planetary science observations. In January of 2012 a workshop was held at NASA Glenn Research Center in Cleveland, Ohio to explore what planetary science can be achieved utilizing such a platform. Over 40 science concepts were identified by the scientists and engineers attending the workshop. Those ideas were captured and then posted to a public website for all interested planetary scientists to review and give their comments. The results of the workshop, and subsequent community review, have demonstrated that this platform appears to have potential for high-value science at very competitive costs. Given these positive results, the assessment process was extended to include 1) examining, in more detail, the requirements for the gondola platform and the mission scenarios 2) identifying technical challenges and 3) developing one or more platform concepts in enough fidelity to enable accurate estimating of development and mission costs. This paper provides a review of the assessment, a summary of the achievable science and the challenges to make that science a reality with this platform.

  3. Assessment of Potentially Dangerous Glacial Lakes in Chinese Himalayas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaojun, Yao; Shiyin, Liu; Xin, Wang

    2010-05-01

    Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are catastrophic discharges of water resulting primarily from melting glaciers. In the face of global warming, most Himalayan glaciers have been retreating at a rate that ranges from a few meters to several tens of meters per year, resulting in an increase in the number and size and size of glacial lakes and a concomitant increase in the threat of GLOFs. In the past 50 years, 16 GLOF events which were reported in Tibet had caused the loss of human lives as well as severe damage to local infrastructure. Based on the combination of temperature and precipitation of these 14 failed moraine-dammed lakes, the climatic background could be classified into 4 types, that is, warm-wet, warm-arid, cold-wet and near common weather condition. Under different climatic background types, the outburst mechanisms can be further divided into 5 types and 21 modes based on the analysis of 31 failed moraine-dammed lakes documented all over the world. As to a potentially dangerous moraine-dammed lake, all possible breach modes under each climatic background are firstly described and its qualitative possibilities are given by experts, then the decision-making trees are formed and the breach probability of the potentially dangerous moraine-dammed lake can be calculate. The breaching probabilities of the 143 potentially dangerous moraine-dammed lakes were calculated one by one using the decision-making trees model in Chinese Himalayas. The calculating results show that there are 44 lakes with very high breaching probability, 47 lakes with high breaching probability, 24 lakes with median breaching probability, 24 lakes with low breaching probability, 4 lakes with very low breaching probability. The 91 lakes with very high and high breaching probability rate should be requested in the next steps of detailed assessment and should be took into account in local infrastructure construction, such as road, hydropower station and residential plan, etc. Key words

  4. High temporal discounters overvalue immediate rewards rather than undervalue future rewards: an event-related brain potential study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherniawsky, Avital S; Holroyd, Clay B

    2013-03-01

    Impulsivity is characterized in part by heightened sensitivity to immediate relative to future rewards. Although previous research has suggested that "high discounters" in intertemporal choice tasks tend to prefer immediate over future rewards because they devalue the latter, it remains possible that they instead overvalue immediate rewards. To investigate this question, we recorded the reward positivity, a component of the event-related brain potential (ERP) associated with reward processing, with participants engaged in a task in which they received both immediate and future rewards and nonrewards. The participants also completed a temporal discounting task without ERP recording. We found that immediate but not future rewards elicited the reward positivity. High discounters also produced larger reward positivities to immediate rewards than did low discounters, indicating that high discounters relatively overvalued immediate rewards. These findings suggest that high discounters may be more motivated than low discounters to work for monetary rewards, irrespective of the time of arrival of the incentives.

  5. An evaluation of commercial NDIR sensors for a potential use in future urban GHG monitoring systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arzoumanian, E.; Bastos, A.; Gaynullin, B.; Martin, H.; Hjern, L.; Laurent, O.; Vogel, F. R.

    2016-12-01

    Cities are a key contributor to climate change, as urban activities are major sources of GHG emissions. It is clear that accurate estimates of the magnitude of anthropogenic and natural urban emissions are needed to assess their influence on the carbon balance. Recently Wu et al. (2016) suggested that a denser ground-based GHG monitoring network in Paris would have the potential allow retrieving sector specific GHG emission estimates (and potentially in certain other cities) when combined with an atmospheric inversion framework using reasonably accurate observations (ca. 1 ppm for hourly means). One major barrier for such denser observations can be the high cost of high-precision instruments or high calibration cost of cheaper, unstable instrumentation. Within a recent climate KIC project, LSCE and SenseAir AB have worked on novel inexpensive NDIR sensors for CO2 measurements for site and city-scale applications that fulfil typical repeatability and reproducibility requirements necessary for this task. We conducted laboratory tests on six prototypes and determined the sensitivity of the sensors to multiple parameters, e.g. changing pressure, temperature and water vapor. Also, we developed a correction and calibration strategy for our NDIR sensors. Furthermore, we fully integrated these NDIR sensors in a platform containing the CO2sensor, pressure and temperature sensors, gas supply pump and a fully automated data acquisition unit. This platform was deployed in parallel to Picarro G2401 instruments in the urban network of LSCE. In this field experiment, using weekly calibration, we find a root-mean-square difference of less than 1 ppm for hourly mean concentrations at the semi-urban site in Saclay and the urban site of Jussieu, Paris, France. Our recent results concerning sensor testing and CO2monitoring from the two sites sited above also guide our recommendations for a low cost urban environmental monitoring system based on open source hardware (Raspberry Pi) and

  6. Will Robots Ever Replace Attendants? Exploring the Current Capabilities and Future Potential of Robots in Education and Rehabilitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lees, David; LePage, Pamela

    1994-01-01

    This article describes the current capabilities and future potential of robots designed as supplements or replacements for human assistants or as tools for education and rehabilitation of people with disabilities. Review of robots providing educational, vocational, or independent living assistance concludes that eventually effective, reliable…

  7. Molecular Markers of Diabetic Retinopathy: Potential Screening Tool of the Future?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priyia ePusparajah

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Diabetic retinopathy (DR is among the leading causes of new onset blindness in adults. Effective treatment may delay the onset and progression of this disease provided it is diagnosed early. At present retinopathy can only be diagnosed via formal examination of the eye by a trained specialist, which limits the population that can be effectively screened. An easily accessible, reliable screening biomarker of diabetic retinopathy would be of tremendous benefit in detecting the population in need of further assessment and treatment. This review highlights specific biomarkers that show promise as screening markers to detect early diabetic retinopathy or even to detect patients at increased risk of DR at the time of diagnosis of diabetes. The pathobiology of DR is complex and multifactorial giving rise to a wide array of potential biomarkers. This review provides an overview of these pathways and looks at older markers such as advanced glycation end products(AGEs, inflammatory markers, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF as well as other newer proteins with a role in the pathogenesis of DR including neuroprotective factors such as brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF and Pigment Epithelium Derived Factor (PEDF; SA100A12, pentraxin 3, brain natriuretic peptide, apelin 3 and chemerin as well as various metabolites such as lipoprotein A, folate and homocysteine. We also consider the possible role of proteins identified through proteomics work whose levels are altered in the sera of patients with DR as screening markers though their role in pathophysiology remains to be characterized. The role of microRNA as a promising new screening marker is also discussed.

  8. Functional genomic screening approaches in mechanistic toxicology and potential future applications of CRISPR-Cas9.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Hua; McHale, Cliona M; Smith, Martyn T; Zhang, Luoping

    2015-01-01

    Characterizing variability in the extent and nature of responses to environmental exposures is a critical aspect of human health risk assessment. Chemical toxicants act by many different mechanisms, however, and the genes involved in adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) and AOP networks are not yet characterized. Functional genomic approaches can reveal both toxicity pathways and susceptibility genes, through knockdown or knockout of all non-essential genes in a cell of interest, and identification of genes associated with a toxicity phenotype following toxicant exposure. Screening approaches in yeast and human near-haploid leukemic KBM7 cells have identified roles for genes and pathways involved in response to many toxicants but are limited by partial homology among yeast and human genes and limited relevance to normal diploid cells. RNA interference (RNAi) suppresses mRNA expression level but is limited by off-target effects (OTEs) and incomplete knockdown. The recently developed gene editing approach called clustered regularly interspaced short palindrome repeats-associated nuclease (CRISPR)-Cas9, can precisely knock-out most regions of the genome at the DNA level with fewer OTEs than RNAi, in multiple human cell types, thus overcoming the limitations of the other approaches. It has been used to identify genes involved in the response to chemical and microbial toxicants in several human cell types and could readily be extended to the systematic screening of large numbers of environmental chemicals. CRISPR-Cas9 can also repress and activate gene expression, including that of non-coding RNA, with near-saturation, thus offering the potential to more fully characterize AOPs and AOP networks. Finally, CRISPR-Cas9 can generate complex animal models in which to conduct preclinical toxicity testing at the level of individual genotypes or haplotypes. Therefore, CRISPR-Cas9 is a powerful and flexible functional genomic screening approach that can be harnessed to provide

  9. Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Can

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moren, Lena

    2006-10-15

    This report documents the future human actions (FHA) considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Can. The purpose of this report is to provide an account of: General considerations concerning FHA; The methodology applied in SR-Can to assess FHA; The aspects of FHA that need to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository; and The selection of representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis.

  10. Assessing Risk in Costing High-energy Accelerators: from Existing Projects to the Future Linear Collider

    CERN Document Server

    Lebrun, Philippe

    2010-01-01

    High-energy accelerators are large projects funded by public money, developed over the years and constructed via major industrial contracts both in advanced technology and in more conventional domains such as civil engineering and infrastructure, for which they often constitute one-of markets. Assessing their cost, as well as the risk and uncertainty associated with this assessment is therefore an essential part of project preparation and a justified requirement by the funding agencies. Stemming from the experience with large circular colliders at CERN, LEP and LHC, as well as with the Main Injector, the Tevatron Collider Experiments and Accelerator Upgrades, and the NOvA Experiment at Fermilab, we discuss sources of cost variance and derive cost risk assessment methods applicable to the future linear collider, through its two technical approaches for ILC and CLIC. We also address disparities in cost risk assessment imposed by regional differences in regulations, procedures and practices.

  11. Mitigation potential of horizontal ground coupled heat pumps for current and future climatic conditions: UK environmental modelling and monitoring studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    García González, Raquel; Verhoef, Anne; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Gan, Guohui; Wu, Yupeng; Hughes, Andrew; Mansour, Majdi; Blyth, Eleanor; Finch, Jon; Main, Bruce

    2010-05-01

    model predictions of soil moisture content and soil temperature with measurements at different GCHP locations over the UK. The combined effect of environment dynamics and horizontal GCHP technical properties on long-term GCHP performance will be assessed using a detailed land surface model (JULES: Joint UK Land Environment Simulator, Meteorological Office, UK) with additional equations embedded describing the interaction between GCHP heat exchangers and the surrounding soil. However, a number of key soil physical processes are currently not incorporated in JULES, such as groundwater flow, which, especially in lowland areas, can have an important effect on the heat flow between soil and HE. Furthermore, the interaction between HE and soil may also cause soil vapour and moisture fluxes. These will affect soil thermal conductivity and hence heat flow between the HE and the surrounding soil, which will in turn influence system performance. The project will address these issues. We propose to drive an improved version of JULES (with equations to simulate GCHP exchange embedded), with long-term gridded (1 km) atmospheric, soil and vegetation data (reflecting current and future environmental conditions) to reliably assess the mitigation potential of GCHPs over the entire domain of the UK, where uptake of GCHPs has been low traditionally. In this way we can identify areas that are most suitable for the installation of GCHPs. Only then recommendations can be made to local and regional governments, for example, on how to improve the mitigation potential in less suitable areas by adjusting GCHP configurations or design.

  12. Proprioception: where are we now? A commentary on clinical assessment, changes across the life course, functional implications and future interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suetterlin, Karen Joan; Sayer, Avan Aihie

    2014-05-01

    Proprioception, the sense of where one is in space, is essential for effective interaction with the environment. A lack of or reduction in proprioceptive acuity has been directly correlated with falls and with reduced functional independence in older people. Proprioceptive losses have also been shown to negatively correlate with functional recovery post stroke and play a significant role in other conditions such as Parkinson's disease. However, despite its central importance to many geriatric syndromes, the clinical assessment of proprioception has remained remarkably static. We look at approaches to the clinical assessment of proprioception, changes in proprioception across the life course, functional implications of proprioception in health and disease and the potential for targeted interventions in the future such as joint taping, and proprioception-specific rehabilitation and footwear.

  13. Coastal Change Potential (CPI) Assessment of Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore (slbe_shore)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A coastal change potential index (CPI) was used to map the relative change potential of the coast to future lake-level change within Sleeping Bear Dunes National...

  14. Coastal Change Potential (CPI) Assessment of Apostle Islands National Lakeshore (apis_shore)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A coastal change potential index (CPI) was used to map the relative change potential of the coast to future lake-level change within Apostle Islands National...

  15. Assessment of the uncertainty in future projection for summer climate extremes over the East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Changyong; Min, Seung-Ki; Cha, Dong-Hyun

    2017-04-01

    Future projections of climate extremes in regional and local scales are essential information needed for better adapting to climate changes. However, future projections hold larger uncertainty factors arising from internal and external processes which reduce the projection confidence. Using CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) multi-model simulations, we assess uncertainties in future projections of the East Asian temperature and precipitation extremes focusing on summer. In examining future projection, summer mean and extreme projections of the East Asian temperature and precipitation would be larger as time. Moreover, uncertainty cascades represent wider scenario difference and inter-model ranges with increasing time. A positive mean-extreme relation is found in projections for both temperature and precipitation. For the assessment of uncertainty factors for these projections, dominant uncertainty factors from temperature and precipitation change as time. For uncertainty of mean and extreme temperature, contributions of internal variability and model uncertainty declines after mid-21st century while role of scenario uncertainty grows rapidly. For uncertainty of mean precipitation projections, internal variability is more important than the scenario uncertainty. Unlike mean precipitation, extreme precipitation shows that the scenario uncertainty is expected to be a dominant factor in 2090s. The model uncertainty holds as an important factor for both mean and extreme precipitation until late 21st century. The spatial changes for the uncertainty factors of mean and extreme projections generally are expressed according to temporal changes of the fraction of total variance from uncertainty factors in many grids of the East Asia. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The research was supported by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development program under grant KMIPA 2015-2083 and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Ministry of

  16. Ecological niche modeling of coastal dune plants and future potential distribution in response to climate change and sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza-González, Gabriela; Martínez, M Luisa; Rojas-Soto, Octavio R; Vázquez, Gabriela; Gallego-Fernández, Juan B

    2013-08-01

    Climate change (CC) and sea level rise (SLR) are phenomena that could have severe impacts on the distribution of coastal dune vegetation. To explore this we modeled the climatic niches of six coastal dunes plant species that grow along the shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula, and projected climatic niches to future potential distributions based on two CC scenarios and SLR projections. Our analyses suggest that distribution of coastal plants will be severely limited, and more so in the case of local endemics (Chamaecrista chamaecristoides, Palafoxia lindenii, Cakile edentula). The possibilities of inland migration to the potential 'new shoreline' will be limited by human infrastructure and ecosystem alteration that will lead to a 'coastal squeeze' of the coastal habitats. Finally, we identified areas as future potential refuges for the six species in central Gulf of Mexico, and northern Yucatán Peninsula especially under CC and SLR scenarios. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Assessment of Rainfall-induced Landslide Potential and Spatial Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yie-Ruey; Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chen, Jing-Wen; Chiang, Jie-Lun; Hsieh, Shun-Chieh; Chue, Yung-Sheng

    2016-04-01

    Recently, due to the global climate change, most of the time the rainfall in Taiwan is of short duration but with high intensity. Due to Taiwan's steep terrain, rainfall-induced landslides often occur and lead to human causalities and properties loss. Taiwan's government has invested huge reconstruction funds to the affected areas. However, after rehabilitation they still face the risk of secondary sediment disasters. Therefore, this study assesses rainfall-induced (secondary) landslide potential and spatial distribution in watershed of Southern Taiwan under extreme climate change. The study areas in this research are Baolai and Jianshan villages in the watershed of the Laonongxi River Basin in the Southern Taiwan. This study focused on the 3 years after Typhoon Morakot (2009 to 2011). During this period, the study area experienced six heavy rainfall events including five typhoons and one heavy rainfall. The genetic adaptive neural network, texture analysis and GIS were implemented in the analysis techniques for the interpretation of satellite images and to obtain surface information and hazard log data and to analyze land use change. A multivariate hazards evaluation method was applied to quantitatively analyze the weights of various natural environmental and slope development hazard factors. Furthermore, this study established a slope landslide potential assessment model and depicted a slope landslide potential diagram by using the GIS platform. The interaction between (secondary) landslide mechanism, scale, and location was analyzed using association analysis of landslide historical data and regional environmental characteristics. The results of image classification before and after six heavy rainfall events show that the values of coefficient of agreement are at medium-high level. By multivariate hazards evaluation method, geology and the effective accumulative rainfall (EAR) are the most important factors. Slope, distance from fault, aspect, land disturbance

  18. The potential role of waste biomass in the future urban electricity system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiang, Yu; Werf, van der Edwin; Ierland, van Ekko C.; Keesman, Karel J.

    2017-01-01

    The share of intermittent renewable electricity (IRE) in the future urban electricity system is expected to increase significantly. Sufficient back-up capacity is needed in the period when IRE output is low. Bioenergy is both dispatchable and carbon-neutral, and can hence be a promising option to

  19. Potential future impact of a partially effective HIV vaccine in a southern African setting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Phillips, Andrew N; Cambiano, Valentina; Nakagawa, Fumiyo

    2014-01-01

    of a realistic future implementation scenario in resource limited settings. METHODS: An individual level model of HIV transmission, progression and the effect of antiretroviral therapy was used to predict the outcome to 2060 of introduction in 2025 of a partially effective vaccine with various combinations...... goal....

  20. Future Land-Use Changes and the Potential for Novelty in Ecosystems of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastian Martinuzzi; Gregorio I. Gavier-Pizarro; Ariel E. Lugo; Volker C. Radeloff

    2015-01-01

    Rapid global changes due to changing land use, climate, and non-native species are altering environmental conditions, resulting in more novel communities with unprecedented species combinations. Understanding how future anthropogenic changes may affect novelty in ecosystems is important to advance environmental management and ecological research in the Anthropocene....

  1. Alluvial diamond resource potential and production capacity assessment of Mali

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirico, Peter G.; Barthelemy, Francis; Kone, Fatiaga

    2010-01-01

    In May of 2000, a meeting was convened in Kimberley, South Africa, and attended by representatives of the diamond industry and leaders of African governments to develop a certification process intended to assure that rough, exported diamonds were free of conflictual concerns. This meeting was supported later in 2000 by the United Nations in a resolution adopted by the General Assembly. By 2002, the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme (KPCS) was ratified and signed by diamond-producing and diamond-importing countries. Over 70 countries were included as members of the KPCS at the end of 2007. To prevent trade in "conflict diamonds" while protecting legitimate trade, the KPCS requires that each country set up an internal system of controls to prevent conflict diamonds from entering any imported or exported shipments of rough diamonds. Every diamond or diamond shipment must be accompanied by a Kimberley Process (KP) certificate and be contained in tamper-proof packaging. The objective of this study was (1) to assess the naturally occurring endowment of diamonds in Mali (potential resources) based on geological evidence, previous studies, and recent field data and (2) to assess the diamond-production capacity and measure the intensity of mining activity. Several possible methods can be used to estimate the potential diamond resource. However, because there is generally a lack of sufficient and consistent data recording all diamond mining in Mali and because time to conduct fieldwork and accessibility to the diamond mining areas are limited, four different methodologies were used: the cylindrical calculation of the primary kimberlitic deposits, the surface area methodology, the volume and grade approach, and the content per kilometer approach. Approximately 700,000 carats are estimated to be in the alluvial deposits of the Kenieba region, with 540,000 carats calculated to lie within the concentration grade deposits. Additionally, 580,000 carats are estimated to have

  2. Using Groundwater physiochemical properties for assessing potential earthquake precursor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inbar, Nimrod; Reuveni, Yuval; Anker, Yaakov; Guttman, Joseph

    2017-04-01

    Worldwide studies reports pre-seismic, co-seismic and post-seismic reaction of groundwater to earthquakes. The unique hydrological and geological situation in Israel resulted in relatively deep water wells which are located close to seismically active tectonic plate boundary. Moreover, the Israeli experience show that anomalies may occurs 60-90 minutes prior to the seismic event (Guttman et al., 2005; Anker et al., 2016). Here, we try to assess the possible connection between changes in physiochemical parameters of groundwater and earthquakes along the Dead Sea Transform (DST) region. A designated network of monitoring stations was installed in MEKOROT abandoned deep water wells, continuously measuring water table, conductivity and temperature at a sampling rate of 1 minute. Preliminary analysis compares changes in the measured parameters with rain events, tidal effects and earthquake occurrences of all measured magnitudes (>2.5Md) at monitoring area surroundings. The acquired data set over one year recorded simultaneous abrupt changes in several wells which seems disconnected from standard hydrological occurrences such as precipitation, abstraction or tidal effects. At this stage, our research aims to determine and rationalize a baseline for "normal response" of the measured parameters to external occurrences while isolating those cases in which "deviations" from that base line is recorded. We apply several analysis techniques both in time and frequency domain with the measured signal as well as statistical analysis of several measured earthquake parameters, which indicate potential correlations between earthquakes occurrences and the measured signal. We show that at least in one seismic event (5.1 Md) a potential precursor may have been recorded. Reference: Anker, Y., N. Inbar, A. Y. Dror, Y. Reuveni, J. Guttman, A. Flexer, (2016). Groundwater response to ground movements, as a tool for earthquakes monitoring and a possible precursor. 8th International Conference

  3. Critical thinking: assessing the risks to the future security of supply of critical metals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunn, Gus

    2015-04-01

    Increasing world population, the spread of prosperity across the globe and the demands of new technologies have led to a revival of concerns about the availability of raw materials needed by society. Despite scare stories about resource depletion, physical exhaustion of minerals is considered to be unlikely. However, we do need to know which materials might be of concern so that we can develop strategies to secure adequate supplies and to mitigate the effects of supply disruption. This requirement has led to renewed interest in criticality, a term that is generally used to refer to metals and minerals of high economic importance that have a relatively high likelihood of supply disruption. The European Union (EU) developed a quantitative methodology for the assessment of criticality which led to the definition of 14 raw materials as critical to the EU economy (EC, 2010). This has succeeded in raising awareness of potential supply issues and in helping to prioritise requirements for new policies and supporting research. The EU has recently assessed a larger number of candidate materials of which 20 are now identified as critical to the EU (EC, 2014). These include metals such as indium, mostly used in flat-screen displays, antimony for flame retardants and cobalt for rechargeable batteries, alloys and a host of other products. Although there is no consensus on the methodology for criticality assessments and broad analyses at this scale are inevitably imperfect, they can, nevertheless, provide early warning of supply problems. However, in order to develop more rigorous and dynamic assessments of future availability detailed analysis of the whole life-cycle of individual metals to identify specific problems and develop appropriate solutions is required. New policies, such as the Raw Materials Initiative (2008) and the European Innovation Partnership on Raw Materials (2013), have been developed by the European Commission (EC) and are aimed at securing sustainable

  4. Comprehensive Environmental Assessment Applied to Multiwalled Carbon Nanotube Flame-Retardant Coatings in Upholstery Textiles: A Case Study Presenting Priority Research Gaps for Future Risk Assessments (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    In September 2013, EPA announced the availability of the final report, Comprehensive Environmental Assessment Applied to Multiwalled Carbon Nanotube Flame-Retardant Coatings in Upholstery Textiles: A Case Study Presenting Priority Research Gaps for Future Risk Assessments...

  5. The State of Low Cost Air Travel in Australia and its Potential for the Future

    OpenAIRE

    Verhelst, John E. M.

    2009-01-01

    This study examines the current state and the market potential of the two Australian low cost airlines, Virgin Blue and Jetstar, using the models and experiences of two successful low cost airlines, Southwest Airlines (USA) and Ryanair (Ireland). Both Southwest Airlines and Ryanair have been operating profitably , and are useful models for comparison of both the performance and market potential of the Australian low cost airlines. Finally, the study analyses the potential for further developm...

  6. Assessment of visual disability using visual evoked potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, Jihoon; Oh, Seiyul; Kyung, Sungeun

    2012-08-06

    The purpose of this study is to validate the use of visual evoked potential (VEP) to objectively quantify visual acuity in normal and amblyopic patients, and determine if it is possible to predict visual acuity in disability assessment to register visual pathway lesions. A retrospective chart review was conducted of patients diagnosed with normal vision, unilateral amblyopia, optic neuritis, and visual disability who visited the university medical center for registration from March 2007 to October 2009. The study included 20 normal subjects (20 right eyes: 10 females, 10 males, ages 9-42 years), 18 unilateral amblyopic patients (18 amblyopic eyes, ages 19-36 years), 19 optic neuritis patients (19 eyes: ages 9-71 years), and 10 patients with visual disability having visual pathway lesions. Amplitude and latencies were analyzed and correlations with visual acuity (logMAR) were derived from 20 normal and 18 amblyopic subjects. Correlation of VEP amplitude and visual acuity (logMAR) of 19 optic neuritis patients confirmed relationships between visual acuity and amplitude. We calculated the objective visual acuity (logMAR) of 16 eyes from 10 patients to diagnose the presence or absence of visual disability using relations derived from 20 normal and 18 amblyopic eyes. Linear regression analyses between amplitude of pattern visual evoked potentials and visual acuity (logMAR) of 38 eyes from normal (right eyes) and amblyopic (amblyopic eyes) subjects were significant [y = -0.072x + 1.22, x: VEP amplitude, y: visual acuity (logMAR)]. There were no significant differences between visual acuity prediction values, which substituted amplitude values of 19 eyes with optic neuritis into function. We calculated the objective visual acuity of 16 eyes of 10 patients to diagnose the presence or absence of visual disability using relations of y = -0.072x + 1.22 (-0.072). This resulted in a prediction reference of visual acuity associated with malingering vs. real

  7. Assessment of visual disability using visual evoked potentials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeon Jihoon

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The purpose of this study is to validate the use of visual evoked potential (VEP to objectively quantify visual acuity in normal and amblyopic patients, and determine if it is possible to predict visual acuity in disability assessment to register visual pathway lesions. Methods A retrospective chart review was conducted of patients diagnosed with normal vision, unilateral amblyopia, optic neuritis, and visual disability who visited the university medical center for registration from March 2007 to October 2009. The study included 20 normal subjects (20 right eyes: 10 females, 10 males, ages 9–42 years, 18 unilateral amblyopic patients (18 amblyopic eyes, ages 19–36 years, 19 optic neuritis patients (19 eyes: ages 9–71 years, and 10 patients with visual disability having visual pathway lesions. Amplitude and latencies were analyzed and correlations with visual acuity (logMAR were derived from 20 normal and 18 amblyopic subjects. Correlation of VEP amplitude and visual acuity (logMAR of 19 optic neuritis patients confirmed relationships between visual acuity and amplitude. We calculated the objective visual acuity (logMAR of 16 eyes from 10 patients to diagnose the presence or absence of visual disability using relations derived from 20 normal and 18 amblyopic eyes. Results Linear regression analyses between amplitude of pattern visual evoked potentials and visual acuity (logMAR of 38 eyes from normal (right eyes and amblyopic (amblyopic eyes subjects were significant [y = −0.072x + 1.22, x: VEP amplitude, y: visual acuity (logMAR]. There were no significant differences between visual acuity prediction values, which substituted amplitude values of 19 eyes with optic neuritis into function. We calculated the objective visual acuity of 16 eyes of 10 patients to diagnose the presence or absence of visual disability using relations of y = −0.072x + 1.22 (−0.072. This resulted in a prediction

  8. Assessing potential radiological harm to fukushima recovery workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Bobby R

    2011-01-01

    A radiological emergency exists at the Fukushima Daiichi (Fukushima I) nuclear power plant in Japan as a result of the March 11, 2011 magnitude 9.0 earthquake and the massive tsunami that arrived later. News media misinformation related to the emergency triggered enormous social fear worldwide of the radioactivity that is being released from damaged fuel rods. The heroic recovery workers are a major concern because they are being exposed to mostly gamma radiation during their work shifts and life-threatening damage to the radiosensitive bone marrow could occur over time. This paper presents a way in which the bone marrow equivalent dose (in millisieverts), as estimated per work shift, could be used along with the hazard function model previously developed for radiological risk assessment to repeatedly check for potential life-threatening harm (hematopoietic system damage) to workers. Three categories of radiation hazard indication are proposed: 1, life-threatening damage unlikely; 2, life-threatening damage possible; 3, life-threatening damage likely. Categories 2 and 3 would be avoided if the whole body effective dose did not exceed the annual effective dose limit of 250 mSv. For down-wind populations, hormetic effects (activated natural protective processes) are much more likely than are deleterious effects.

  9. Present and future assessment of growing degree days over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2017-10-01

    The determination of heat requirements in the first developing phases of plants has been expressed as Growing Degree Days (GDD). The current study focuses on three selected study areas in Greece that are characterised by different climatic conditions due to their location and aims to assess the future variation and spatial distribution of Growing Degree Days (GDD) and how these can affect the main cultivations in the study areas. Future temperature data were obtained and analysed by the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis was performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 with the A1B and B1 scenarios. Spatial distribution was performed using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling technique through ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for all the future periods and scenarios, the GDD are expected to increase. Furthermore, the increase in the Sperchios River basin will be the highest, followed by the Ardas and the Geropotamos River basins. Moreover, the cultivation period will be shifted from April-October to April-September which will have social, economical and environmental benefits. Additionally, the spatial distribution indicated that in the upcoming years the existing cultivations can find favourable conditions and can be expanded in mountainous areas as well. On the other hand, due to the rough topography that exists in the study areas, the wide expansion of the existing cultivations into higher altitudes is unaffordable. Nevertheless, new more profitable cultivations can be introduced which can find propitious conditions in terms of GDD.

  10. Intergenerational considerations affecting the future of nuclear power: equity as a framework for assessing fuel cycles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taebi, Behnam; Kadak, Andrew C

    2010-09-01

    Alternative fuel cycles are being considered in an effort to prolong uranium fuel supplies for thousands of years to come and to manage nuclear waste. These strategies bring with them different benefits and burdens for the present generation and for future generations. In this article, we present a method that provides insight into future fuel cycle alternatives and into the conflicts arising between generations within the framework of intergenerational equity. A set of intersubjective values is drawn from the notion of sustainable development. By operationalizing these values and mapping out their impacts, value criteria are introduced for the assessment of fuel cycles, which are based on the distribution of burdens and benefits between generations. The once-through fuel cycle currently deployed in the United States and three future fuel cycles are subsequently assessed according to these criteria. The four alternatives are then compared in an integrated analysis in which we shed light on the implicit tradeoffs made by decisionmakers when they choose a certain fuel cycle. When choosing a fuel cycle, what are the societal costs and burdens accepted for each generation and how can these factors be justified? This article presents an integrated decision-making method, which considers intergenerational aspects of such decisions; this method could also be applied to other technologies. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Blueprints for the assessment, treatment, and future study of catatonia in autism spectrum disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhossche, Dirk Marcel; Shah, Amitta; Wing, Lorna

    2006-01-01

    The blueprints for the assessment, treatment, and future study of catatonia in autism spectrum disorders (ASDs), which are submitted in this chapter aim to increase early recognition and treatment of catatonia in ASDs, show the urgency of controlled treatment trials, and increase collaborative and interdisciplinary research into the co-occurrence of these two enigmatic disorders. Catatonia should be assessed in any patient with ASDs when there is an obvious and marked deterioration in movement, pattern of activities, self-care, and practical skills, compared with previous levels, through a comprehensive diagnostic evaluation of medical and psychiatric symptoms. A formal diagnosis should be ascertained using ASD specific criteria for catatonia that takes into account baseline symptoms like muteness, echophenomena, stereotypy, negativism, or other psychomotor abnormalities. Any underlying medical and neurological conditions should be treated, and culprit medications or other substances that may cause catatonia should be eliminated. Separate treatment blueprints are presented for mild, moderate, and severe catatonia, featuring combinations of a psychological approach developed by Shah and Wing and medical treatments that have shown efficacy in catatonia: lorazepam challenge, lorazepam trial, lorazepam continuation, and bilateral electroconvulsive therapy (ECT). These treatment modalities in themselves are well established. Side effects and complications are known and manageable. Legal, ethical, and practice guidelines governing all treatment aspects should be followed. The treatment blueprints should be viewed as best estimates pending future controlled studies. The blueprint for the future study of catatonia in ASDs describes promising clinical and preclinical research avenues. Longitudinal studies need to assess the possible effect of early recognition and adequate treatment of catatonia in ASDs in order to avoid the impairment associated with chronicity. Effects of

  12. The future potential for wine production in Scotland under high-end climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dunn, Miriam; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; Boberg, Fredrik

    2017-01-01

    Wine production is climate dependent and highly sensitive to weather variability, which makes the sector a good indicator of ongoing and future climate change impacts. Under high-end climate change (HECC), temperatures in Scotland are projected to increase significantly by the end of the twenty...... questions. What are the projected late twenty-first century temperature changes in Scotland? Where in Europe are current climates (based on summer and annual temperatures) similar to those projected for Scotland by the end of the twenty-first century under HECC? Are any of these locations currently wine...... of climate analogues in combination with other environmental datasets can be useful in understanding future climate change impacts, especially under HECC....

  13. Identifying and Mitigating Potential Nutrient and Sediment Hot Spots under a Future Scenario in the Missouri River Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, May [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Zhang, Zhonglong [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for large-scale watershed modeling could be useful for evaluating the quality of the water in regions that are dominated by nonpoint sources in order to identify potential “hot spots” for which mitigating strategies could be further developed. An analysis of water quality under future scenarios in which changes in land use would be made to accommodate increased biofuel production was developed for the Missouri River Basin (MoRB) based on a SWAT model application. The analysis covered major agricultural crops and biofuel feedstock in the MoRB, including pasture land, hay, corn, soybeans, wheat, and switchgrass. The analysis examined, at multiple temporal and spatial scales, how nitrate, organic nitrogen, and total nitrogen; phosphorus, organic phosphorus, inorganic phosphorus, and total phosphorus; suspended sediments; and water flow (water yield) would respond to the shifts in land use that would occur under proposed future scenarios. The analysis was conducted at three geospatial scales: (1) large tributary basin scale (two: Upper MoRB and Lower MoRB); (2) regional watershed scale (seven: Upper Missouri River, Middle Missouri River, Middle Lower Missouri River, Lower Missouri River, Yellowstone River, Platte River, and Kansas River); and (3) eight-digit hydrologic unit (HUC-8) subbasin scale (307 subbasins). Results showed that subbasin-level variations were substantial. Nitrogen loadings decreased across the entire Upper MoRB, and they increased in several subbasins in the Lower MoRB. Most nitrate reductions occurred in lateral flow. Also at the subbasin level, phosphorus in organic, sediment, and soluble forms was reduced by 35%, 45%, and 65%, respectively. Suspended sediments increased in 68% of the subbasins. The water yield decreased in 62% of the subbasins. In the Kansas River watershed, the water quality improved significantly with regard to every nitrogen and phosphorus compound. The improvement was

  14. Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gårdmark, Anna; Lindegren, Martin; Neuenfeldt, Stefan; Blenckner, Thorsten; Heikinheimo, Outi; Müller-Karulis, Bärbel; Niiranen, Susa; Tomczak, Maciej T; Aro, Eero; Wikström, Anders; Möllmann, Christian

    2013-06-01

    Natural resource management requires approaches to understand and handle sources of uncertainty in future responses of complex systems to human activities. Here we present one such approach, the "biological ensemble modeling approach," using the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias) as an example. The core of the approach is to expose an ensemble of models with different ecological assumptions to climate forcing, using multiple realizations of each climate scenario. We simulated the long-term response of cod to future fishing and climate change in seven ecological models ranging from single-species to food web models. These models were analyzed using the "biological ensemble modeling approach" by which we (1) identified a key ecological mechanism explaining the differences in simulated cod responses between models, (2) disentangled the uncertainty caused by differences in ecological model assumptions from the statistical uncertainty of future climate, and (3) identified results common for the whole model ensemble. Species interactions greatly influenced the simulated response of cod to fishing and climate, as well as the degree to which the statistical uncertainty of climate trajectories carried through to uncertainty of cod responses. Models ignoring the feedback from prey on cod showed large interannual fluctuations in cod dynamics and were more sensitive to the underlying uncertainty of climate forcing than models accounting for such stabilizing predator-prey feedbacks. Yet in all models, intense fishing prevented recovery, and climate change further decreased the cod population. Our study demonstrates how the biological ensemble modeling approach makes it possible to evaluate the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in future species responses, as well as to seek scientific conclusions and sustainable management solutions robust to uncertainty of food web processes in the face of climate change.

  15. Career development and personal success profile of students - followers and students - potential future leaders: The case of RIT Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasminka Samardžija

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the differences among students in terms of self-reported leadership characteristics. It was conducted among all three programs and four generations of undergraduates at RIT Croatia. The goal of this study is to determine the differences among students who report being more and less leadership prone (Potential Future Leaders and Followers, respectively with regard to demographic characteristics, reported self reliance socialization pattern, college level and program choice, career focus attainment and development, and reported attitudes regarding the importance of specific personality traits in leadership, the importance of specific career development factors and success indicators. Research showed that generation and college program are not related to student reported leadership proneness, suggesting that college education’s impact on leadership traits is not significant. Only one socio-demographic factor considered was significantly different between clusters; namely, the respondents who had moved once were significantly more represented in the Potential Future Leaders cluster, suggesting that study-abroad programs might play a role in leadership development. In terms of ranking career development factors, success indicators, the importance of emotional stability and openness to experience as a specific leadership trait, Potential Future Leaders reported higher scores in comparison with Followers cluster, potentially resulting from their forwardlooking, goal-oriented attitude.

  16. A coupled Bayesian and fault tree methodology to assess future groundwater conditions in light of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, J. J.; Du, M.; McBean, E. A.; Wang, H.; Wang, J.

    2014-08-01

    Maintaining acceptable groundwater levels, particularly in arid areas, while protecting ecosystems, are key measures against desertification. Due to complicated hydrological processes and their inherent uncertainties, investigations of groundwater recharge conditions are challenging, particularly in arid areas under climate changing conditions. To assist planning to protect against desertification, a fault tree methodology, in conjunction with fuzzy logic and Bayesian data mining, are applied to Minqin Oasis, a highly vulnerable regime in northern China. A set of risk factors is employed within the fault tree framework, with fuzzy logic translating qualitative risk data into probabilities. Bayesian data mining is used to quantify the contribution of each risk factor to the final aggregated risk. The implications of both historical and future climate trends are employed for temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) to assess water table changes under various future scenarios. The findings indicate that water table levels will continue to drop at the rate of 0.6 m yr-1 in the future when climatic effects alone are considered, if agricultural and industrial production capacity remain at 2004 levels.

  17. Biogeochemical-Argo: achievements, challenges for the future and potential synergies with other components of ocean observation systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claustre, Hervé; Johnson, Ken

    2017-04-01

    The recently launched Biogeochemical-Argo (BGC-Argo) program aims at developing a global network of biogeochemical sensors on Argo profiling floats for acquiring long-term high-quality time-series of oceanic properties. BGC-Argo is in particular poised to address a number of challenges in ocean science (e.g. hypoxia, carbon uptake, ocean acidification, biological-carbon pump and phytoplankton communities), topics that are difficult, if not impossible, to address with our present observing assets. Presently six variables are considered as core BGC-Argo variables (O2, NO3, pH, Chla, suspended particles and downwelling irradiance). Historically, BGC-Argo has been initiated through small-scale "showcase" projects progressively scaling up into regional case studies essentially addressing key biological pump-related questions in specific regions (e.g. sub-tropical gyres, North Atlantic, Southern Ocean). Now BGC-Argo is transitioning towards a global and sustained observation system thanks to progressive international coordination of national contributions and to increasingly mature and efficient data management and distribution systems. In this presentation, we will highlight a variety of results derived from BGC-Argo observations and encompassing a wide range of topics related to ocean biogeochemistry. Challenges for the future and long-term sustainability of the system will be addressed in particular with respect to maintaining a high-quality and interoperable dataset over long-term. Part of this can be achieved through a tight interaction with programs (e.g. GOSHIP) and their historical databases, which should constitute a corner stone to assess data quality. Example on the interplay between BGC-Argo and GlodapV2 databases will be particularly exemplified in this context. Furthermore, we will illustrate the potential synergies between synoptically measured surface satellite-quantities and their vertically resolved (BGC-Argo) counterparts into the development of 3D

  18. "Helios Dynamics" A Potential Future Power Source for the Greek Islands

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Deligiannidis, Ioannis; Angelis, Ioannis

    2007-01-01

    .... Environmental concerns, economic benefits but most of all the potential exhaustion of the current sources of energy, such as fossil fuels, have alarmed the international community and gave incentives...

  19. A study on Saudi Arabian retail dynamics, its potential future and challenges

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mohammed Naquibur Rahman

    2014-01-01

      The research report is aimed at providing opportunities to the retail business players and the government to get the best benefits from the business potential and resources available in the of Saudi Arabia...

  20. The Astronomy Thesaurus and UDC -- Present and Future (Group Discussion for Users and Potential Users)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummins, Marlene

    A brief discussion of the potential and problems of the Astronomy Thesaurus and UDC classification system took place. Once again, no resolution to the questions of updating and revising these items was found.

  1. Potential Areas of Future Oil and Gas Development, Greater Wattenberg Area, Front Range of Colorado (friogdevu)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The potential for oil and gas development in the greater Wattenberg area (GWA), which lies near the Front Range between Denver and Greeley, Colo., in the Denver...

  2. Assessment of future climate change impacts on hydrological behavior of Richmond River Catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hashim Isam Jameel Al-Safi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluated the impacts of future climate change on the hydrological response of the Richmond River Catchment in New South Wales (NSW, Australia, using the conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling approach (the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV model. Daily observations of rainfall, temperature, and streamflow and long-term monthly mean potential evapotranspiration from the meteorological and hydrological stations within the catchment for the period of 1972–2014 were used to run, calibrate, and validate the HBV model prior to the streamflow prediction. Future climate signals of rainfall and temperature were extracted from a multi-model ensemble of seven global climate models (GCMs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3 with three regional climate scenarios, A2, A1B, and B1. The calibrated HBV model was then forced with the ensemble mean of the downscaled daily rainfall and temperature to simulate daily future runoff at the catchment outlet for the early part (2016–2043, middle part (2044–2071, and late part (2072–2099 of the 21st century. All scenarios during the future periods present decreasing tendencies in the annual mean streamflow ranging between 1% and 24.3% as compared with the observed period. For the maximum and minimum flows, all scenarios during the early, middle, and late parts of the century revealed significant declining tendencies in the annual mean maximum and minimum streamflows, ranging between 30% and 44.4% relative to the observed period. These findings can assist the water managers and the community of the Richmond River Catchment in managing the usage of future water resources in a more sustainable way.

  3. Planning for sustainable tourism in southern Pulau Banggi: an assessment of biophysical conditions and their implications for future tourism development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teh, Lydia; Cabanban, Annadel S

    2007-12-01

    A priori assessments of a site's biophysical and socio-economic capacity for accommodating tourism are less common than tourism impact studies. A priori evaluations can provide a contextual understanding of ecological, economic and socio-cultural forces, which shape the prospects for sustainable tourism development at the host destination, and can avert adverse impacts of tourism. We conduct an a priori assessment of the biophysical environment of Pulau Banggi, in the Malaysian state of Sabah for sustainable tourism development. We characterise baseline conditions of the island's marine biodiversity, seasonality, and infrastructure. We then evaluate how existing biophysical conditions will influence options for sustainable tourism development. In particular, we suggest conditions, if there are any, which constitute a limit to future tourism development in terms of compatibility for recreation and resilience to visitor impacts. We find that the biggest constraint is the lack of adequate water and sanitation infrastructure. Blast fishing, although occurring less than once per hour, can potentially destroy the major attraction for tourists. We conclude that while Pulau Banggi possesses natural qualities that are attractive for ecotourism, financial and institutional support must be made available to provide facilities and services that will enable local participation in environmental protection and enhance prospects for future sustainable tourism.

  4. Wind power potential assessment for three locations in Algeria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Himri, Y. [Electricity and Gas National Enterprise (Sonelgaz), Bechar (Algeria); Rehman, S. [Engineering Analysis Section, Center for Engineering Research, Research Institute, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Box 767, Dhahran 31261 (Saudi Arabia); Draoui, B. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Bechar (Algeria); Himri, S. [Department of Fundamental Sciences, University of Bechar (Algeria)

    2008-12-15

    This paper utilized wind speed data over a period of almost 10 years between 1977 and 1988 from three stations, namely Adrar, Timimoun and Tindouf to assess the wind power potential at these sites. The long-term annual mean wind speed values along with the wind turbine power curve values were used to estimate the annual energy output for a 30 MW installed capacity wind farm at each site. A total of 30 wind turbines each of 1000 kW rated power were used in the analysis. The long-term mean wind speed at Adrar, Timimoun and Tindouf was 5.9, 5.1 and 4.3 m/s at 10 m above ground level (AGL), respectively. Higher wind speeds were observed in the day time between 09:00 and 18:00 h and relatively smaller during rest of the period. Wind farms of 30 MW installed capacity at Adrar, Timimoun and Tindouf, if developed, could produce 98,832, 78,138 and 56,040 MWh of electricity annually taking into consideration the temperature and pressure adjustment coefficients of about 6% and all other losses of about 10%, respectively. The plant capacity factors at Adrar, Timimoun and Tindouf were found to be 38%, 30% and 21%, respectively. Finally, the cost of energy (COE) was found to be 3.1, 4.3 and 6.6 US cents/kWh at Adrar, Timimoun and Tindouf, respectively. It was noticed that such a development at these sites could result into avoidance of 48,577, 38,406 and 27,544 tons/year of CO{sub 2} equivalents green house gas (GHG) from entering into the local atmosphere, thus creating a clean and healthy atmosphere for local inhabitants. (author)

  5. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Glacier Hazards Assessment: Application to Predicting the Potential for Glacier Lake Outbursts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furfaro, R.; Kargel, J. S.; Fink, W.; Bishop, M. P.

    2010-12-01

    Glaciers and ice sheets are among the largest unstable parts of the solid Earth. Generally, glaciers are devoid of resources (other than water), are dangerous, are unstable and no infrastructure is normally built directly on their surfaces. Areas down valley from large alpine glaciers are also commonly unstable due to landslide potential of moraines, debris flows, snow avalanches, outburst floods from glacier lakes, and other dynamical alpine processes; yet there exists much development and human occupation of some disaster-prone areas. Satellite remote sensing can be extremely effective in providing cost-effective and time- critical information. Space-based imagery can be used to monitor glacier outlines and their lakes, including processes such as iceberg calving and debris accumulation, as well as changing thicknesses and flow speeds. Such images can also be used to make preliminary identifications of specific hazardous spots and allows preliminary assessment of possible modes of future disaster occurrence. Autonomous assessment of glacier conditions and their potential for hazards would present a major advance and permit systematized analysis of more data than humans can assess. This technical leap will require the design and implementation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms specifically designed to mimic glacier experts’ reasoning. Here, we introduce the theory of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) as an AI tool for predicting and assessing natural hazards in alpine glacier environments. FCM techniques are employed to represent expert knowledge of glaciers physical processes. A cognitive model embedded in a fuzzy logic framework is constructed via the synergistic interaction between glaciologists and AI experts. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed AI methodology as applied to predicting hazards in glacier environments, we designed and implemented a FCM that addresses the challenging problem of autonomously assessing the Glacier Lake Outburst Flow

  6. Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gårdmark, Anna; Lindegren, Martin; Neuenfeldt, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    Natural resource management requires approaches to understand and handle sources of uncertainty in future responses of complex systems to human activities. Here we present one such approach, the “biological ensemble modeling approach,” using the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias...... trajectories carried through to uncertainty of cod responses. Models ignoring the feedback from prey on cod showed large interannual fluctuations in cod dynamics and were more sensitive to the underlying uncertainty of climate forcing than models accounting for such stabilizing predator–prey feedbacks. Yet...

  7. Estimating the future ice sheet hydropower potential in Paakitsoq, Ilulissat, West Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahlstrøm, Andreas P.; Mottram, R.H.; Nielsen, C.

    2008-01-01

    of meltwater during the summer season. However, geometrical changes in the ice sheet, for example due to a retreat or an advance of the ice sheet margin, could change the hydrological catchment within the ice sheet. Such a change would have a devastating economical impact as a hydropower plant is a significant...... long-term investment for an Arctic community of modest population. Here we present a new bedrock and surface map of the Paakitsoq/Swiss Camp part of the Greenland ice sheet and a prediction of the future discharge up to 2080 AD using regional climate model output, dynamic ice sheet modelling...

  8. Analyzing Potential Grid Impacts from Future In-Motion Roadway Wireless Power Transfer Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meintz, Andrew; Gonder, Jeffrey; Jorgenson, Jennie; Brooker, Aaron

    2017-01-01

    This work examines the grid impact of in-motion roadway wireless power transfer through the examination of the electrification of high-capacity roadways inside a metropolitan area. The work uses data from a regional travel study and the Federal Highway Administration's Highway Performance Monitoring System to estimate the electrified roadway's hourly power use throughout a week. The data are then combined with hourly grid load estimates for the same metropolitan area to determine the overlay of traditional grid load with additional load from a future electrified roadway.

  9. Bio-nano hybrid materials based on bacteriorhodopsin: Potential applications and future strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahyad, Baharak; Janfaza, Sajjad; Hosseini, Elaheh Sadat

    2015-11-01

    This review presents an overview of recent progress in the development of bio-nano hybrid materials based on the photoactive protein bacteriorhodopsin (bR). The interfacing of bR with various nanostructures including colloidal nanoparticles (such as quantum dots and Ag NPs) and nanoparticulate thin films (such as TiO2 NPs and ZnO NPs,) has developed novel functional materials. Applications of these materials are comprehensively reviewed in two parts: bioelectronics and solar energy conversion. Finally, some perspectives on possible future strategies in bR-based nanostructured devices are presented. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Analyzing Potential Grid Impacts from Future In-Motion Roadway Wireless Power Transfer Scenarios: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meintz, Andrew; Gonder, Jeffrey; Jorgenson, Jennie; Brooker, Aaron

    2016-08-01

    This work examines the grid impact of in-motion roadway wireless power transfer through the examination of the electrification of high-capacity roadways inside a metropolitan area. The work uses data from a regional travel study and the Federal Highway Administration's Highway Performance Monitoring System to estimate the electrified roadway's hourly power use throughout a week. The data are then combined with hourly grid load estimates for the same metropolitan area to determine the overlay of traditional grid load with additional load from a future electrified roadway.

  11. Atlantic hurricanes and associated insurance loss potentials in future climate scenarios: limitations of high-resolution AGCM simulations

    OpenAIRE

    Raible, Christoph C.; Kleppek, Sabine; Wüest, Marc; Bresch, David N.; Kitoh, Akio; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Thomas F Stocker

    2012-01-01

    Potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics are among the more serious regional threats of global climate change. Therefore, a better understanding of how anthropogenic climate change may affect TCs and how these changes translate in socio-economic impacts is required. Here, we apply a TC detection and tracking method that was developed for ERA-40 data to time-slice experiments of two atmospheric general circulation models, namely the fifth version of the European Centre...

  12. Potential Risks of Ecological Momentary Assessment Among Persons Who Inject Drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, Alexis M; Rossi, John; Goldshear, Jesse L; Truong, Quan; Armenta, Richard F; Lankenau, Stephen E; Garfein, Richard S; Simmons, Janie

    2017-06-07

    Ecological momentary assessment (EMA)-which often involves brief surveys delivered via mobile technology-has transformed our understanding of the individual and contextual micro-processes associated with legal and illicit drug use. However, little empirical research has focused on participant's perspective on the probability and magnitude of potential risks in EMA studies. To garner participant perspectives on potential risks common to EMA studies of illicit drug use. We interviewed 38 persons who inject drugs living in San Diego (CA) and Philadelphia (PA), United States. They completed simulations of an EMA tool and then underwent a semi-structured interview that systematically explored domains of risk considered within the proposed revisions to the Federal Policy for the Protection of Human Subjects or the "Common Rule." Interviews were transcribed verbatim and coded systematically to explore psychological, physical, social, legal, and informational risks from participation. Participants perceived most risks to be minimal. Some indicated that repetitive questioning about mood or drug use could cause psychological (i.e., anxiety) or behavioral risks (i.e., drug use relapse). Ironically, the questions that were viewed as risky were considered motivational to engage in healthy behaviors. The most cited risks were legal and social risks stemming from participant concerns about data collection and security. Improving our understanding of these issues is an essential first step to protect human participants in future EMA research. We provide a brief set of recommendations that can aid in the design and ethics review of the future EMA protocol with substance using populations.

  13. Future Linear Colliders: Detector R&D, Jet Reconstruction and Top Physics Potential

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2098729; Ros Martinez, Eduardo

    During the 20th century, discoveries and measurements at colliders, combined with progress in theoretical physics, allowed us to formulate the Standard Model of the in- teractions between the constituents of matter. Today, there are two advanced projects for a new installation that will collide electrons and positrons covering an energy range from several hundreds of GeV to the multi-TeV scale, the International Linear Collider (ILC) and the Compact Linear Collider (CLIC). These Future Linear Colliders give the opportunity to study the top quark with unprecedented precision. Measurements of top quark properties are of special interest, as the top quark is the heaviest ele- mentary particle of the SM. Precision measurements of top quark properties at e+e colliders promise therefore to be highly sensitive to physics beyond the SM. This thesis has three complementary parts. The first is dedicated to the R&D of the ILD detector concept for future e+e- colliders, more precisely, the innermost region of the de...

  14. Potential chemotherapeutic targets for Japanese encephalitis: current status of antiviral drug development and future challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishikawa, Tomohiro; Konishi, Eiji

    2015-01-01

    Japanese encephalitis (JE) remains a public health threat in Asia. Although several vaccines have been licensed, ∼ 67,900 cases of the disease are estimated to occur annually, probably because the vaccine coverage is low. Therefore, effective antiviral drugs are required to control JE. However, no licensed anti-JE drugs are available, despite extensive efforts to develop them. We provide a general overview of JE and JE virus, including its transmission cycle, distribution, structure, replication machinery, immune evasion mechanisms and vaccines. The current situation in antiviral drug development is then reviewed and future perspectives are discussed. Although the development of effective anti-JE drugs is an urgent issue, only supportive care is currently available. Recent progress in our understanding of the viral replication machinery and immune evasion strategies has identified new targets for anti-JE drug development. To date, most candidate drugs have only been evaluated in single-drug formulations, and efficient drug delivery to the CNS has virtually not been considered. However, an effective anti-JE treatment is expected to be achieved with multiple-drug formulations and a targeted drug delivery system in the near future.

  15. Assessing the Validity of the Simplified Potential Energy Clock Model for Modeling Glass-Ceramics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jamison, Ryan Dale [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Grillet, Anne M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Stavig, Mark E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Strong, Kevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Dai, Steve Xunhu [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-10-01

    Glass-ceramic seals may be the future of hermetic connectors at Sandia National Laboratories. They have been shown capable of surviving higher temperatures and pressures than amorphous glass seals. More advanced finite-element material models are required to enable model-based design and provide evidence that the hermetic connectors can meet design requirements. Glass-ceramics are composite materials with both crystalline and amorphous phases. The latter gives rise to (non-linearly) viscoelastic behavior. Given their complex microstructures, glass-ceramics may be thermorheologically complex, a behavior outside the scope of currently implemented constitutive models at Sandia. However, it was desired to assess if the Simplified Potential Energy Clock (SPEC) model is capable of capturing the material response. Available data for SL 16.8 glass-ceramic was used to calibrate the SPEC model. Model accuracy was assessed by comparing model predictions with shear moduli temperature dependence and high temperature 3-point bend creep data. It is shown that the model can predict the temperature dependence of the shear moduli and 3- point bend creep data. Analysis of the results is presented. Suggestions for future experiments and model development are presented. Though further calibration is likely necessary, SPEC has been shown capable of modeling glass-ceramic behavior in the glass transition region but requires further analysis below the transition region.

  16. The potential impact of invasive woody oil plants on protected areas in China under future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Guanghui; Yang, Jun; Lu, Siran; Huang, Conghong; Jin, Jing; Jiang, Peng; Yan, Pengbo

    2018-01-18

    Biodiesel produced from woody oil plants is considered a green substitute for fossil fuels. However, a potential negative impact of growing woody oil plants on a large scale is the introduction of highly invasive species into susceptible regions. In this study, we examined the potential invasion risk of woody oil plants in China's protected areas under future climate conditions. We simulated the current and future potential distributions of three invasive woody oil plants, Jatropha curcas, Ricinus communis, and Aleurites moluccana, under two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) up to 2050 using species distribution models. Protected areas in China that will become susceptible to these species were then identified using a spatial overlay analysis. Our results showed that by 2050, 26 and 41 protected areas would be threatened by these invasive woody oil plants under scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. A total of 10 unique forest ecosystems and 17 rare plant species could be potentially affected. We recommend that the invasive potential of woody oil plants be fully accounted for when developing forest-based biodiesel, especially around protected areas.

  17. 78 FR 25266 - An Assessment of Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-30

    ... AGENCY An Assessment of Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, Alaska AGENCY... Assessment of Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, Alaska'' (EPA-910-R-12-004Ba-c... assessment to determine the significance of Bristol Bay's ecological resources and the potential impacts of...

  18. Hybrid vehicle potential assessment. Volume 7: Hybrid vehicle review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leschly, K. O.

    1979-01-01

    Review of hybrid vehicles built during the past ten years or planned to be built in the near future is presented. An attempt is made to classify and analyze these vehicles to get an overall picture of their key characteristics. The review includes onroad hybrid passenger cars, trucks, vans, and buses.

  19. Bulbar and speech motor assessment in ALS: challenges and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Jordan R; Yunusova, Yana; Kuruvilla, Mili S; Wang, Jun; Pattee, Gary L; Synhorst, Lori; Zinman, Lorne; Berry, James D

    2013-12-01

    Bulbar motor deterioration due to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) leads to the eventual impairment of speech and swallowing functions. Despite these devastating consequences, no standardized diagnostic procedure for assessing bulbar dysfunction in ALS exists and adequate objective markers of bulbar deterioration have not been identified. In this paper, we consider objective measures of speech motor function, which show promise for forming the basis of a comprehensive, quantitative bulbar motor assessment in ALS. These measures are based on the assessment of four speech subsystems: respiratory, phonatory, articulatory, and resonatory. The goal of this research is to design a non-invasive, comprehensive bulbar motor assessment instrument intended for early detection, monitoring of disease progression, and clinical trial application. Preliminary data from an ongoing study of bulbar motor decline are presented, which demonstrate the potential clinical efficacy of the speech subsystem approach.

  20. Modelling soil organic carbon in Danish agricultural soils suggests low potential for future carbon sequestration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taghizadeh-Toosi, Arezoo; Olesen, Jørgen Eivind

    2016-01-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) is in active exchange with the atmosphere. The amount of organic carbon (OC) input into the soil and SOC turnover rate are important for predicting the carbon (C) sequestration potential of soils subject to changes in land-use and climate. The C-TOOL model was developed...

  1. Agent Technology in Supply Chains and Networks: An exploration of high potential future applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Hillegersberg, Jos; Verduijn, Thierry; Becker, Justus

    2004-01-01

    This paper reports on an ongoing research project that is aimed at evaluating how software agents can improve performance of supply chains and networks. To conduct this evaluation, first a framework is developed to classify potential applications of software agents to supply networks. The framework

  2. Head in the Clouds: A Review of Current and Future Potential for Cloud-Enabled Pedagogies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, Michael; Hedberg, John G.

    2011-01-01

    This paper reviews the research on the disruptive and transformative potential of newly-emerging cloud-based pedagogies. It takes into consideration the extent to which Cloud Computing can be leveraged to disseminate and scale web-based applications within and across learning contexts. It examines ideas from current literature in Web 2.0- and…

  3. EASETECH Energy: Life Cycle Assessment of current and future Danish power systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Turconi, Roberto; Damgaard, Anders; Bisinella, Valentina

    A new life cycle assessment (LCA) model software has been developed by DTU Environment, to facilitate detailed LCA of energy technologies. The model, EASETECH Energy, is dedicated to the specific technologies needed to assess energy production and energy systems and provides an unprecedented...... flexibility with respect to LCA modeling of these technologies. To illustrate the functionality of the model, preliminary results from a LCA of the Danish power system in 2010 as well as two future scenarios for 2030 are presented. In addition to providing a general overview of the environmental profile...... of a renewable based power system, specific focus is placed on the typical challenges encountered when performing an LCA of a power system. Further, the key characteristics of EASETECH Energy that can expedite the set-up of multiple scenarios and enhance transparency in the modelling are explained....

  4. Decreasing resilience of kelp beds along a latitudinal temperature gradient: potential implications for a warmer future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wernberg, Thomas; Thomsen, Mads S; Tuya, Fernando; Kendrick, Gary A; Staehr, Peter A; Toohey, Benjamin D

    2010-06-01

    Successful mitigation of negative effects of global warming will depend on understanding the link between physiological and ecological responses of key species. We show that while metabolic adjustment may assist Australasian kelp beds to persist and maintain abundance in warmer waters, it also reduces the physiological responsiveness of kelps to perturbation, and suppresses canopy recovery from disturbances by reducing the ecological performance of kelp recruits. This provides a warning not to rely solely on inventories of distribution and abundance to evaluate ecosystem function. The erosion of resilience is mediated by a shift in adult-juvenile interactions from competitive under cool to facilitative under warm conditions, supporting the prediction that positive interactions may become increasingly important in a warmer future. Kelp beds may remain intact but with a lower threshold for where additional impacts (e.g., extreme storms or reduced water quality) will lead to persistent loss of habitat and ecological function.

  5. Future Connections: The potential of Web service and Portal technologies for the historic environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stewart Waller

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available Where the other papers in this special edition of Internet Archaeology look at the experiences and achievements of the ARENA project this paper looks to the future. Portal technologies like those used by the ARENA portal are already moving into new and exciting areas, areas such as web services and portlet technologies in particular. This paper considers the work of the ADS in projects such as ARENA, but also HEIRPORT and CREE, work that has revealed new and exciting paths towards data sharing on a European scale. Are these the paths that any new ARENA project will have to follow to sustain the dream of interoperable data sharing for European archaeology?

  6. State Support for Clean Energy Deployment: Lessons Learned for Potential Future Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kubert, C.; Sinclair, M.

    2011-04-01

    Proposed federal clean energy initiatives and climate legislation have suggested significant increases to federal funding for clean energy deployment and investment. Many states and utilities have over a decade of experience and spend billions of public dollars every year to support EE/RE deployment through programs that reduce the cost of technologies, provide financing for EE/RE projects, offer technical assistance, and educate market participants. Meanwhile, constraints on public expenditures at all levels of government continue to call upon such programs to demonstrate their value. This report reviews the results of these programs and the specific financial incentives and financing tools used to encourage clean energy investment. Lessons from such programs could be used to inform the future application of EE/RE incentives and financing tools. These lessons learned apply to use of distributed resources and the historical focus of these EE/RE programs.

  7. State Support for Clean Energy Deployment. Lessons Learned for Potential Future Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kubert, Charles [Clean Energy States Alliance, Montpelier, VT (United States); Sinclair, Mark [Clean Energy States Alliance, Montpelier, VT (United States)

    2011-04-01

    Proposed federal clean energy initiatives and climate legislation have suggested significant increases to federal funding for clean energy deployment and investment. Many states and utilities have over a decade of experience and spend billions of public dollars every year to support EE/RE deployment through programs that reduce the cost of technologies, provide financing for EE/RE projects, offer technical assistance, and educate market participants. Meanwhile, constraints on public expenditures at all levels of government continue to call upon such programs to demonstrate their value. This report reviews the results of these programs and the specific financial incentives and financing tools used to encourage clean energy investment. Lessons from such programs could be used to inform the future application of EE/RE incentives and financing tools. These lessons learned apply to use of distributed resources and the historical focus of these EE/RE programs.

  8. Mental disorder in violent women in secure settings: potential relevance to risk for future violence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, Caroline; Blackburn, Ronald

    2009-01-01

    The relevance to women of common violence risk factors identified in men has in many instances yet to be established. Consequently, there is a reluctance to accept without question the application to women of practices relating to violence risk assessment and management developed from research into men. This study examines mental disorder in women who are violent in order comment on its relevance to the practice of violence risk assessment and management. A sample of 95 violent women in high secure prison and forensic psychiatric care were assessed. Structured assessments of Axis I and II mental disorders and psychopathy were undertaken on all women and conviction histories were recorded. Very high levels of psychiatric morbidity were noted and patterns in comorbidity were detected. Among Axis I conditions, psychotic disorders and disorders of mood co-occurred at a very high rate. Among the Axis II conditions, dimensional ratings of borderline personality disorder (PD) correlated with dimensional ratings of avoidant, dependent and paranoid PDs while ratings of antisocial PD correlated with those of narcissistic, histrionic and obsessive-compulsive PDs. Women who had been incarcerated for a major violent offence were four times more likely to have a diagnosis of borderline PD than women whose index offence was one of minor violence. A number of the findings reported are in contrast to those reported in similar studies of men. Findings suggest that practitioners are right to question the application to women of knowledge derived from research into men. The practice of violence risk assessment and management with women should emphasise the development of individual risk formulations and responding to psychiatric comorbidity should be the rule rather than the exception with this population.

  9. The Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment Mission and its Potential Contributions to Human Exploration of Asteroids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abell, Paul A.; Rivkin, Andy S.

    2014-01-01

    The joint ESA and NASA Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission will directly address aspects of NASA's Asteroid Initiative and will contribute to future human exploration. The NASA Asteroid Initiative is comprised of two major components: the Grand Challenge and the Asteroid Mission. The first component, the Grand Challenge, focuses on protecting Earth's population from asteroid impacts by detecting potentially hazardous objects with enough warning time to either prevent them from impacting the planet, or to implement civil defense procedures. The Asteroid Mission, involves sending astronauts to study and sample a near-Earth asteroid (NEA) prior to conducting exploration missions of the Martian system, which includes Phobos and Deimos. AIDA's primary objective is to demonstrate a kinetic impact deflection and characterize the binary NEA Didymos. The science and technical data obtained from AIDA will aid in the planning of future human exploration missions to NEAs and other small bodies. The dual robotic missions of AIDA, ESA's Asteroid Impact Monitor (AIM) and NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), will provide a great deal of technical and engineering data on spacecraft operations for future human space exploration while conducting in-depth scientific examinations of the binary target Didymos both prior to and after the kinetic impact demonstration. The knowledge gained from this mission will help identify asteroidal physical properties in order to maximize operational efficiency and reduce mission risk for future small body missions. The AIDA data will help fill crucial strategic knowledge gaps concerning asteroid physical characteristics that are relevant for human exploration considerations at similar small body destinations.

  10. Ischaemic preconditioning - Current knowledge and potential future applications after 30 years of experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stokfisz, Karolina; Ledakowicz-Polak, Anna; Zagorski, Maciej; Zielinska, Marzenna

    2017-05-13

    Ischaemic preconditioning (IPC) phenomenon has been known for thirty years. During that time several studies showed that IPC provided by brief ischaemic and reperfusion episodes prior to longer ischaemia can bestow a protective effect to both preconditioned and also remote organs. IPC affecting remote organs is called remote ischaemic preconditioning. Initially, most IPC studies were focused on enhancing myocardial resistance to subsequent ischaemia and reperfusion injury. However, preconditioning was found to be a universal phenomenon and was observed in various organs and tissues including the heart, liver, brain, retina, kidney, skeletal muscles and intestine. Currently, there are a lot of simultaneous studies are underway aiming at finding out whether IPC can be helpful in protecting these organs. The mechanism of local and remote IPC is complex and not well known. Several triggers, intracellular pathways and effectors, humoral, neural and induced by genetic changes may be considered potential pathways in the protective activity of local and remote IPC. Local and remote IPC mechanism may potentially serve as heart protection during cardiac surgery and may limit the infarct size of the myocardium, can be a strategy for preventing the development of acute kidney injury development and liver damage during transplantation, may protect the brain against ischaemic injury. In addition, the method is safe, non-invasive, cheap and easily applicable. The main purpose of this review article is to present new advances which would help to understand the potential mechanism of IPC. It also discusses both its potential applications and utility in clinical settings. Copyright © 2017 Medical University of Bialystok. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Cannabis Roots: A Traditional Therapy with Future Potential for Treating Inflammation and Pain

    OpenAIRE

    Ryz, Natasha R.; Remillard, David J.; Russo, Ethan B.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Introduction: The roots of the cannabis plant have a long history of medical use stretching back millennia. However, the therapeutic potential of cannabis roots has been largely ignored in modern times. Discussion: In the first century, Pliny the Elder described in Natural Histories that a decoction of the root in water could be used to relieve stiffness in the joints, gout, and related conditions. By the 17th century, various herbalists were recommending cannabis root to treat infla...

  12. Codling Moth (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) Establishment in China: Stages of Invasion and Potential Future Distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hongyu; Kumar, Sunil; Neven, Lisa G

    2017-07-01

    Codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.) is an internal feeding pest of apples and can cause substantial economic losses to fruit growers due to larval feeding which in turn degrades fruit quality and can result in complete crop loss if left uncontrolled. Although this pest originally developed in central Asia, it was not known to occur in China until 1953. For the first three decades the spread of codling moth within China was slow. Within the last three decades, addition of new commercial apple orchards and improved transportation, this pest has spread to over 131 counties in seven provinces in China. We developed regional (China) and global ecological niche models using MaxEnt to identify areas at highest potential risk of codling moth establishment and spread. Our objectives were to 1) predict the potential distribution of codling moth in China, 2) identify the important environmental factors associated with codling moth distribution in China, and 3) identify the different stages of invasion of codling moth in China. Human footprint, annual temperature range, precipitation of wettest quarter, and degree days ≥10 °C were the most important predictors associated with codling moth distribution. Our analysis identified areas where codling moth has the potential to establish, and mapped the different stages of invasion (i.e., potential for population stabilization, colonization, adaptation, and sink) of codling moth in China. Our results can be used in effective monitoring and management to stem the spread of codling moth in China. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Entomological Society of America 2017. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

  13. Challenges and opportunities for the future of monoclonal antibody development: Improving safety assessment and reducing animal use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sewell, Fiona; Chapman, Kathryn; Couch, Jessica; Dempster, Maggie; Heidel, Shawn; Loberg, Lise; Maier, Curtis; Maclachlan, Timothy K; Todd, Marque; van der Laan, Jan Willem

    2017-07-01

    The market for biotherapeutic monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) is large and is growing rapidly. However, attrition poses a significant challenge for the development of mAbs, and for biopharmaceuticals in general, with large associated costs in resource and animal use. Termination of candidate mAbs may occur due to poor translation from preclinical models to human safety. It is critical that the industry addresses this problem to maintain productivity. Though attrition poses a significant challenge for pharmaceuticals in general, there are specific challenges related to the development of antibody-based products. Due to species specificity, non-human primates (NHP) are frequently the only pharmacologically relevant species for nonclinical safety and toxicology testing for the majority of antibody-based products, and therefore, as more mAbs are developed, increased NHP use is anticipated. The integration of new and emerging in vitro and in silico technologies, e.g., cell- and tissue-based approaches, systems pharmacology and modeling, have the potential to improve the human safety prediction and the therapeutic mAb development process, while reducing and refining animal use simultaneously. In 2014, to engage in open discussion about the challenges and opportunities for the future of mAb development, a workshop was held with over 60 regulators and experts in drug development, mechanistic toxicology and emerging technologies to discuss this issue. The workshop used industry case-studies to discuss the value of the in vivo studies and identify opportunities for in vitro technologies in human safety assessment. From these and continuing discussions it is clear that there are opportunities to improve safety assessment in mAb development using non-animal technologies, potentially reducing future attrition, and there is a shared desire to reduce animal use through minimised study design and reduced numbers of studies.

  14. Potential for a hazardous geospheric response to projected future climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, B

    2010-05-28

    Periods of exceptional climate change in Earth history are associated with a dynamic response from the geosphere, involving enhanced levels of potentially hazardous geological and geomorphological activity. The response is expressed through the adjustment, modulation or triggering of a broad range of surface and crustal phenomena, including volcanic and seismic activity, submarine and subaerial landslides, tsunamis and landslide 'splash' waves, glacial outburst and rock-dam failure floods, debris flows and gas-hydrate destabilization. In relation to anthropogenic climate change, modelling studies and projection of current trends point towards increased risk in relation to a spectrum of geological and geomorphological hazards in a warmer world, while observations suggest that the ongoing rise in global average temperatures may already be eliciting a hazardous response from the geosphere. Here, the potential influences of anthropogenic warming are reviewed in relation to an array of geological and geomorphological hazards across a range of environmental settings. A programme of focused research is advocated in order to: (i) understand better those mechanisms by which contemporary climate change may drive hazardous geological and geomorphological activity; (ii) delineate those parts of the world that are most susceptible; and (iii) provide a more robust appreciation of potential impacts for society and infrastructure.

  15. A preliminary assessment of the potential risks from electrical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A rapid risk assessment of the interactions between Kenya's large birds and electrical infrastructure was conducted around Magadi and Naivasha in Kenya in January 2009. Six out of the seven <132 kV distribution pole designs assessed pose an electrocution risk to medium and large-sized birds. Several sites of high bird ...

  16. Recent and potential future effects of climate change on snow-avalanche activity in western Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laute, Katja; Beylich, Achim A.

    2017-04-01

    Meteorological records for western Norway show the general trend that the last 100 years, and especially the last three decades, have been warmer and wetter than the time periods before. As snow-avalanche formation is mainly governed by meteorological conditions as, e.g., air temperature fluctuations, heavy precipitation and wind conditions, it is likely that the frequency and magnitude of both ordinary and extreme snow-avalanche events is and will be modified through the documented effects of current and future climate change. This work focuses on recent and possible future effects of climate change on snow-avalanche activity along the western side of the Jostedalsbreen ice cap representing one of the areas with the highest snow-avalanche activity in entire Norway. We have analyzed long-term homogenized meteorological data from five meteorological stations in different elevations above sea level, three of them with a long-term record of 120 years (1895-2015). Daily precipitation and air temperature data are analyzed from the highest situated meteorological station (located 872 m asl.) in order to reveal the percentage share of precipitation which occurs actually as snow within the snow avalanche source areas (generally located at this and higher elevations above sea level). In addition to the statistical analyses of long-term datasets, gained results and insights from a four-year (2009-2012) high-resolution snow avalanche monitoring study conducted in the same study area are incorporated. The statistical analyses of mean monthly air temperature, monthly precipitation sums and mean monthly snow depths showed that there is a trend of increasing air temperatures and precipitation sums whereas no clear trend was found for mean snow depths. Magnitude-frequency analyses conducted for three defined time intervals (120, 90, 60 years) of monthly precipitation sums exhibit an increase of precipitation especially during the last 30 years with the tendency that more

  17. Water resources development in Africa: a review and synthesis of issues, potentials, and strategies for the future

    OpenAIRE

    Rosegrant, Mark W.; Perez, Nicostrato D.

    1997-01-01

    This paper analyzes how water resources development and water policy reform can be deployed to address the twin problems of food insecurity and water scarcity in Africa and, in particular, Sub-Saharan Africa. The paper reviews the current status of water supply and demand, and the existing and potential irrigated land base in Africa; reviews the performance of existing irrigation systems and assesses the magnitude of the potential contribution and cost-effectiveness of new irrigation developm...

  18. Impact of a Cross-Institutional Assessment Designed to Shape Future IT Professionals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grace Tan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available IT graduates need a suite of technical competencies and soft skills married with an understanding of the social and business contexts of the systems that they build. To instill in students an awareness of current IT industry practice coupled with the broader impact of their discipline in society, academics from Victoria University and Federation University initiated an across-institutional collaboration. The initiative resulted in a common formative assessment task undertaken by teams of students enrolled in each institution’s professional development units. An initial survey of students was undertaken prior to the assessment task. The survey queried students’ perceptions of a broad range of professional attitudes and skill sets needed by IT professionals when compared to non-skilled workers. Upon the completion of the assessment task, students were surveyed again as to their perceptions of the importance of personal skills, technical competencies, professional and team working skills, workplace knowledge, and cultural awareness for their future professional lives. Comparisons of both surveys’ results revealed that the cohort had a greater appreciation of technical abilities and team-working skills post the assessment task.

  19. The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study—Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M.; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B.; Edwards, Stephen W.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S.; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M.; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J.; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J.; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A.; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Thomas, Russell S.; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R.; Vandenberg, John J.; Villeneuve, Daniel L.; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S.

    2016-01-01

    Background: The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Objective: Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. Methods: New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose–response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. Discussion: NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure–response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. Conclusions: While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I

  20. The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study-Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E; Ankley, Gerald T; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y; Burgoon, Lyle D; Chiu, Weihsueh A; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B; Edwards, Stephen W; Guyton, Kathryn Z; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T; Thayer, Kristina A; Thomas, Russell S; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R; Vandenberg, John J; Villeneuve, Daniel L; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S

    2016-11-01

    The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure-response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I, Andersen ME, Ankley GT, Barone S, Birnbaum LS, Boekelheide K

  1. The potential of FBMC over OFDM for the future 5G mobile communication technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, A. N.; Abdullah, M. F. L.

    2017-09-01

    Fifth Generation (5G) is the new evolution of mobile communication technology and will be launched soon in many countries. The researchers and designers of mobile communication technology have been facing the increasing demand of the mobile consumers, high data rates and mobility requirements needed by new wireless applications. Most of the countries have started research on 5G mobile communication technology that is predictable to be launched on 2020 in conjunction with the Olympic Games in Tokyo. Filterbank Multicarrier (FBMC) is one of the modulation techniques for the future 5G mobile communication technology. It uses the multicarrier techniques that are immune to fading caused by transmission of more than one path at a time and also immune to intersymbol interference besides able to function effectively compared to Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) which is used in Fourth Generation (4G) mobile communications technology. This paper discusses the performance of FBMC over OFDM based on the previous journals that were investigated by researchers.

  2. Field resistance of transgenic plantain to nematodes has potential for future African food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathi, Leena; Babirye, Annet; Roderick, Hugh; Tripathi, Jaindra N; Changa, Charles; Urwin, Peter E; Tushemereirwe, Wilberforce K; Coyne, Danny; Atkinson, Howard J

    2015-01-30

    Plant parasitic nematodes impose losses of up to 70% on plantains and cooking bananas in Africa. Application of nematicides is inappropriate and resistant cultivars are unavailable. Where grown, demand for plantain is more than for other staple crops. Confined field testing demonstrated that transgenic expression of a biosafe, anti-feedant cysteine proteinase inhibitor and an anti-root invasion, non-lethal synthetic peptide confers resistance to plantain against the key nematode pests Radopholus similis and Helicotylenchus multicinctus. The best peptide transgenic line showed improved agronomic performance relative to non-transgenic controls and provided about 99% nematode resistance at harvest of the mother crop. Its yield was about 186% in comparison with the nematode challenged control non-transgenic plants based on larger bunches and diminished plant toppling in storms, due to less root damage. This is strong evidence for utilizing this resistance to support the future food security of 70 million, mainly poor Africans that depend upon plantain as a staple food.

  3. From habitual sleep hours to morbidity and mortality: existing evidence, potential mechanisms, and future agenda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossin, Muhammad Zakir

    2016-06-01

    Epidemiological studies consistently show a strong U-shaped association between sleep duration and health outcomes. That is, both short and long sleepers are exposed to greater risks of death and diseases than normal length sleepers. Moreover, long sleep is often demonstrated as a stronger predictor of mortality than short sleep. While there is some experimental evidence in favor of a causal connection between short sleep and health, no such evidence exists to explain why excessive sleep might be associated with poor health. One possible explanation is that long duration sleep, instead of being a real cause of illness, is merely a marker of poor sleep quality or some unmeasured risk factor that confounds the association of long habitual sleep with mortality and other health outcomes. As for short sleep, the effect is said to be mediated via the hormones that alters glucose metabolism and appetite regulation as well as via an overactivity of the stress systems that causes increased heart rate and blood pressure. The mechanisms, however, are still poorly understood and future investigations should take into account sleep quality, objective and longitudinal sleep measures, more confounding biases, and the broad social context that influences the length and quality of sleep. Copyright © 2016 National Sleep Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Normand, Signe; Randin, Christophe; Ohlemüller, Ralf; Bay, Christian; Høye, Toke T.; Kjær, Erik D.; Körner, Christian; Lischke, Heike; Maiorano, Luigi; Paulsen, Jens; Pearman, Peter B.; Psomas, Achilleas; Treier, Urs A.; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2013-01-01

    Warming-induced expansion of trees and shrubs into tundra vegetation will strongly impact Arctic ecosystems. Today, a small subset of the boreal woody flora found during certain Plio-Pleistocene warm periods inhabits Greenland. Whether the twenty-first century warming will induce a re-colonization of a rich woody flora depends on the roles of climate and migration limitations in shaping species ranges. Using potential treeline and climatic niche modelling, we project shifts in areas climatically suitable for tree growth and 56 Greenlandic, North American and European tree and shrub species from the Last Glacial Maximum through the present and into the future. In combination with observed tree plantings, our modelling highlights that a majority of the non-native species find climatically suitable conditions in certain parts of Greenland today, even in areas harbouring no native trees. Analyses of analogous climates indicate that these conditions are widespread outside Greenland, thus increasing the likelihood of woody invasions. Nonetheless, we find a substantial migration lag for Greenland's current and future woody flora. In conclusion, the projected climatic scope for future expansions is strongly limited by dispersal, soil development and other disequilibrium dynamics, with plantings and unintentional seed dispersal by humans having potentially large impacts on spread rates. PMID:23836785

  5. Assessing the global warming potential of wooden products from the furniture sector to improve their ecodesign.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-García, Sara; Gasol, Carles M; Lozano, Raúl García; Moreira, María Teresa; Gabarrell, Xavier; Rieradevall i Pons, Joan; Feijoo, Gumersindo

    2011-12-01

    The main objective of this study was to determine the global warming potential of several wood products as an environmental criterion for their ecodesign. Two methodologies were combined: the quantification of greenhouse gas emissions (equivalent CO(2)) of several representative wood based products from the furniture sector and the integration of environmental aspects into product design. The products under assessment were classified in two groups: indoor products and outdoor products, depending on their location. "Indoor products" included a convertible cot/bed, a kitchen cabinet, an office table, a living room furniture, a headboard, youth room accessories and a wine crate, while the "Outdoor products" analysed were a ventilated wooden wall and a wooden playground. Spanish wood processing companies located in Galicia (NW Spain) and Catalonia (NE Spain) were analysed in detail. The life cycle of each product was carried out from a cradle-to-gate perspective according to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, using global warming potential as the selected impact category. According to the results, metals, boards and energy use appeared to be the most contributing elements to the environmental impact of the different products under assessment, with total contributions ranging from 40% to 90%. Furthermore, eco-design strategies were proposed by means of the methodology known as Design for the Environment (DfE). Improvement strategies viable for implementation in the short term were considered and analysed in detail, accounting for remarkable reductions in the equivalent CO(2) emissions (up to 60%). These strategies would be focused on the use of renewable energies such as photovoltaic cells, the promotion of national fibres or changes in the materials used. Other alternatives to be implemented in the long term can be of potential interest for future developments. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Commissioning for menopause specialist services: A local perspective: An internet-based survey to assess the potential demand for menopause care in West Cheshire and the skills of local primary care clinicians in this field, with a view to informing future commissioning locally.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Jane F; Short, Hannah L; Wilkinson, Sam; Mander, Anthony

    2015-09-01

    This study explores the perceived volume of women affected by peri- or post-menopausal issues that present to primary care clinicians in West Cheshire, plus the self-reported confidence of those clinicians in managing the menopause, and whether or not they feel that they and their patients should have access to a specialist menopause service. Completion of an electronic survey. General practitioners and practice nurses working in West Cheshire. To provide evidence for future local commissioning of menopause services. Ninety-one clinicians working within West Cheshire were sent an email request to complete the survey with 53 responses received (58%). The majority were general practitioners and were within the 35-54 year age range. The majority perceived that, each week in their clinical practice, they see between one and eight women who are affected by peri- or post-menopausal symptoms. Regarding their self-reported skills and knowledge in managing the menopause, almost half felt they had 'good' knowledge but 'recognised (they) had learning needs'. Seven of the 53 (13%) felt their skills were 'not good'. Two-thirds of those clinicians who completed the survey felt that they and their patients should have access to a specialist menopause service locally. In the area covered by West Cheshire clinical commissioning group, there is no currently commissioned menopause service. This study has demonstrated that a substantial number of women present each week to clinicians working in this area who are felt to have peri- or post-menopausal symptoms. The clinicians have self-reported learning needs. Qualitative data from the survey would suggest training can be difficult to access. There is a clear need, both ethically and medically, for the commissioning of a West Cheshire specialist menopause service, with the proposed model being an integrated and holistic care model. Menopause care, and post-reproductive healthcare generally, provides an opportunity for collaboration and

  7. Realising Future Internet Potentials for Food Chain SMEs: A Hierarchy of Needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harald Sundmaeker

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The EC funded FI‐PPP programme is currently elaborating a large set of enabling technologies that shall help to overcome challenges towards a sustainable networked society of tomorrow. This up‐front investment can highly facilitate access to such Internet potentials by food chain SMEs. Nevertheless, SMEs require a systematic support for being able to decide on which technological enablers are relevant at which moment of their business evolution. To characterise a decision reference, a hierarchy of needs of food chain SMEs is presented that can serve asbaseline when aiming at the usage of the FI‐PPP results in an SME environment.

  8. Impact of future climatic conditions on the potential for soil organic matter priming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reinsch, Sabine; Ambus, Per; Thornton, Barry

    2013-01-01

    . Soil samples were taken from a heath-land after six years of exposure to elevated carbon dioxide (eCO2) in combination with summer drought (D) and increased temperature (T). Soil C-dynamics were investigated in soils from: (i) ambient, (ii) eCO2, and (iii) plots exposed to the combination of factors...... affect soil processes; these factors may counterbalance each other and maintain ecosystem stability. This highlights the importance of studying climate change factors in combination to fully assess consequences of environmental change on plant-soil systems. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd....

  9. Development of a methodology to assess future trends in low flows at the watershed scale using solely climate data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foulon, Étienne; Rousseau, Alain N.; Gagnon, Patrick

    2018-02-01

    Low flow conditions are governed by short-to-medium term weather conditions or long term climate conditions. This prompts the question: given climate scenarios, is it possible to assess future extreme low flow conditions from climate data indices (CDIs)? Or should we rely on the conventional approach of using outputs of climate models as inputs to a hydrological model? Several CDIs were computed using 42 climate scenarios over the years 1961-2100 for two watersheds located in Québec, Canada. The relationship between the CDIs and hydrological data indices (HDIs; 7- and 30-day low flows for two hydrological seasons) were examined through correlation analysis to identify the indices governing low flows. Results of the Mann-Kendall test, with a modification for autocorrelated data, clearly identified trends. A partial correlation analysis allowed attributing the observed trends in HDIs to trends in specific CDIs. Furthermore, results showed that, even during the spatial validation process, the methodological framework was able to assess trends in low flow series from: (i) trends in the effective drought index (EDI) computed from rainfall plus snowmelt minus PET amounts over ten to twelve months of the hydrological snow cover season or (ii) the cumulative difference between rainfall and potential evapotranspiration over five months of the snow free season. For 80% of the climate scenarios, trends in HDIs were successfully attributed to trends in CDIs. Overall, this paper introduces an efficient methodological framework to assess future trends in low flows given climate scenarios. The outcome may prove useful to municipalities concerned with source water management under changing climate conditions.

  10. Orthopaedic metals and their potential toxicity in the arthroplasty patient: A review of current knowledge and future strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keegan, G M; Learmonth, I D; Case, C P

    2007-05-01

    The long-term effects of metal-on-metal arthroplasty are currently under scrutiny because of the potential biological effects of metal wear debris. This review summarises data describing the release, dissemination, uptake, biological activity, and potential toxicity of metal wear debris released from alloys currently used in modern orthopaedics. The introduction of risk assessment for the evaluation of metal alloys and their use in arthroplasty patients is discussed and this should include potential harmful effects on immunity, reproduction, the kidney, developmental toxicity, the nervous system and carcinogenesis.

  11. Anti-cancer potential of flavonoids: recent trends and future perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batra, Priya; Sharma, Anil K

    2013-12-01

    Cancer is a major public health concern in both developed and developing countries. Several plant-derived anti-cancer agents including taxol, vinblastine, vincristine, the campothecin derivatives, topotecan, irinotecan and etoposide are in clinical use all over the world. Other promising anti-cancer agents include flavopiridol, roscovitine, combretastatin A-4, betulinic acid and silvestrol. From this list one can well imagine the predominance of polyphenols, flavonoids and their synthetic analogs in the treatment of ovarian, breast, cervical, pancreatic and prostate cancer. Flavonoids present in human diet comprise many polyphenolic secondary metabolites with broad-spectrum pharmacological activities including their potential role as anti-cancer agents. A positive correlation between flavonoids-rich diet (from vegetables and fruits) and lower risk of colon, prostate and breast cancers lead to a question that whether flavonoids mediate the protective effects as chemopreventive agents or can interact with different genes and proteins to play role in chemotherapy. The current review emphasizes onto the therapeutic potential of flavonoids and their synthetic analogs as anti-cancer agents by providing new insights into the factors, regulation and molecular mechanisms along with their significant protein interactions.

  12. The Potential of Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI in Future Transport Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Attard

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available As transport systems are pushed to the limits in many cities, governments have tried to resolve problems of traffic and congestion by increasing capacity. Miller (2013 contends the need to identify new capabilities (instead of capacity of the transport infrastructure in order to increase efficiency without extending the physical infrastructure. Kenyon and Lyons (2003 identified integrated traveller information as a facilitator for better transport decisions. Today, with further developments in the use of geographic information systems (GIS and a greater disposition by the public to provide volunteered geographic information (VGI, the potential of information is not only integrated across modes but also user-generated, real-time and available on smartphones anywhere. This geographic information plays today an important role in sectors such as politics, businesses and entertainment, and presumably this would extend to transport in revealing people’s preferences for mobility and therefore be useful for decision-making. The widespread availability of networks and smartphones offer new opportunities supported by apps and crowdsourcing through social media such as the successful traffic and navigation app Waze, car sharing programmes such as Zipcar, and ride sharing systems such as Uber. This study aims to develop insights into the potential of governments to use voluntary (crowdsourced geographic information effectively to achieve sustainable mobility. A review of the literature and existing technology informs this article. Further research into this area is identified and presented at the end of the paper.

  13. Assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abah, Roland Clement; Petja, Brilliant Mareme

    2016-12-01

    Agriculture in the Lower Benue River Basin faces several challenges which threaten the future of agricultural development. This study was an assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin. Through analysis of physical and socioeconomic parameters, the study adapted an impact assessment model to rank potential impacts on agricultural development in the study area. Rainfall intensity seemed to be increasing with a gradual reduction in the number of rainy days. The average discharge at Makurdi hydrological station was 3468.24 cubic metres per second (m 3  s -1 ), and the highest peak flow discharge was 16,400 m 3  s -1 . The daily maximum temperature and annual temperature averages for the study area are gradually rising leading to increased heat stress. Physical and chemical analyses showed that the soils are moderately fertile but require effective application of inorganic and organic fertilisers. The main occupational activities in the study area are agricultural based. The identified potential impacts of climate change on agriculture were categorised under atmospheric carbon dioxides and oxides, rainfall intensity, frequency of floods and droughts, temperature intensity and variation, heat stress, surface water trends, and soil quality and fertility. The identified potential impacts related to population dynamics on agriculture were categorised under population growth, rural-urban migration, household income and infectious diseases and HIV and AIDS. Community-level mitigation strategies were proffered. Policy makers are advised to promote irrigation farming, support farmers with farm inputs and credit facilities and establish active agricultural extension services to support the sustainable development of agriculture.

  14. Assessment of potential contaminant threats to Iroquois National Wildlife Refuge

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The primary purpose of the NBS Manual is to provide a standardized and systematic approach for identifying existing or potential contaminant problems on National...

  15. Next generation of microbiological risk assessment: Potential of omics data for exposure assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    den Besten, Heidy M W; Amézquita, Alejandro; Bover-Cid, Sara; Dagnas, Stéphane; Ellouze, Mariem; Guillou, Sandrine; Nychas, George; O'Mahony, Cian; Pérez-Rodriguez, Fernando; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

    2017-10-04

    In food safety and public health risk evaluations, microbiological exposure assessment plays a central role as it provides an estimation of both the likelihood and the level of the microbial hazard in a specified consumer portion of food and takes microbial behaviour into account. While until now mostly phenotypic data have been used in exposure assessment, mechanistic cellular information, obtained using omics techniques, will enable the fine tuning of exposure assessments to move towards the next generation of microbiological risk assessment. In particular, metagenomics can help in characterizing the food and factory environment microbiota (endogenous microbiota and potentially pathogens) and the changes over time under the environmental conditions associated with processing, preservation and storage. The difficulty lies in moving up to a quantitative exposure assessment, because the development of models that enable the prediction of dynamics of pathogens in a complex food ecosystem is still in its infancy in the food safety domain. In addition, collecting and storing the environmental data (metadata) required to inform the models has not yet been organised at a large scale. In contrast, progress in biomarker identification and characterization has already opened the possibility of making qualitative or even quantitative connection between process and formulation conditions and microbial responses at the strain level. In term of modelling approaches, without changing radically the usual model structure, changes in model inputs are expected: instead of (or as well as) building models upon phenotypic characteristics such as for example minimal temperature where growth is expected, exposure assessment models could use biomarker response intensity as inputs. These new generations of strain-level models will bring an added value in predicting the variability in pathogen behaviour. Altogether, these insights based upon omics techniques will increase our (quantitative

  16. Extracellular matrix in uterine leiomyoma pathogenesis: a potential target for future therapeutics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Md Soriful; Ciavattini, Andrea; Petraglia, Felice; Castellucci, Mario; Ciarmela, Pasquapina

    2018-01-01

    Uterine leiomyoma (also known as fibroid or myoma) is the most common benign tumor of the uterus found in women of reproductive age. It is not usually fatal but can produce serious clinical symptoms, including excessive uterine bleeding, pelvic pain or pressure, infertility and pregnancy complications. Due to lack of effective medical treatments surgery has been a definitive choice for the management of this tumor. Extracellular matrix (ECM) accumulation and remodeling are thought to be crucial for fibrotic diseases such as uterine leiomyoma. Indeed, ECM plays important role in forming the bulk structure of leiomyoma, and the ECM-rich rigid structure within these tumors is thought to be a cause of abnormal bleeding and pelvic pain. Therefore, a better understanding of ECM accumulation and remodeling is critical for developing new therapeutics for uterine leiomyoma. PubMed and Google Scholar were searched for all original and review articles/book chapters related to ECM and medical treatments of uterine leiomyoma published in English until May 2017. This review discusses the involvement of ECM in leiomyoma pathogenesis as well as current and future medical treatments that target ECM directly or indirectly. Uterine leiomyoma is characterized by elevated levels of collagens, fibronectin, laminins and proteoglycans. They can induce the mechanotransduction process, such as activation of the integrin-Rho/p38 MAPK/ERK pathway, resulting in cellular responses that are involved in pathogenesis and altered bidirectional signaling between leiomyoma cells and the ECM. ECM accumulation is affected by growth factors (TGF-β, activin-A and PDGF), cytokines (TNF-α), steroid hormones (estrogen and progesterone) and microRNAs (miR-29 family, miR-200c and miR-93/106b). Among these, TGF-βs (1 and 3) and activin-A have been suggested as key players in the accumulation of excessive ECM (fibrosis) in leiomyoma. The presence of elevated levels of ECM and myofibroblasts in leiomyoma

  17. Biocatalyzed processes for production of commodity chemicals: Assessment of future research advances for N-butanol production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingham, J. D.

    1984-01-01

    This report is a summary of assessments by Chem Systems Inc. and a further evaluation of the impacts of research advances on energy efficiency and the potential for future industrial production of acetone-butanol-ethanol (ABE) solvents and other products by biocatalyzed processes. Brief discussions of each of the assessments made by CSI, followed by estimates of minimum projected energy consumption and costs for production of solvents by ABE biocatalyzed processes are included. These assessments and further advances discussed in this report show that substantial decreases in energy consumption and costs are possible on the basis of specific research advances; therefore, it appears that a biocatalyzed process for ABE can be developed that will be competitive with conventional petrochemical processes for production of n-butanol and acetone. (In this work, the ABE process was selected and utilized only as an example for methodology development; other possible bioprocesses for production of commodity chemicals are not intended to be excluded.) It has been estimated that process energy consumption can be decreased by 50%, with a corresponding cost reduction of 15-30% (in comparison with a conventional petrochemical process) by increasing microorganism tolerance to n-butanol and efficient recovery of product solvents from the vapor phase.

  18. Assessment of the toxic potential of graphene family nanomaterials

    OpenAIRE

    Guo, Xiaoqing; Mei, Nan

    2014-01-01

    Graphene, a single-atom-thick carbon nanosheet, has attracted great interest as a promising nanomaterial for a variety of bioapplications because of its extraordinary properties. However, the potential for widespread human exposure raises safety concerns about graphene and its derivatives, referred to as graphene-family nanomaterials. This review summarizes recent findings on the toxicological effects and the potential toxicity mechanisms of graphene-family nanomaterials in bacteria, mammalia...

  19. In vivo confocal microscopy for the oral cavity: Current state of the field and future potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maher, N G; Collgros, H; Uribe, P; Ch'ng, S; Rajadhyaksha, M; Guitera, P

    2016-03-01

    Confocal microscopy (CM) has been shown to correlate with oral mucosal histopathology in vivo. The purposes of this review are to summarize what we know so far about in vivo CM applications for oral mucosal pathologies, to highlight some current developments with CM devices relevant for oral applications, and to formulate where in vivo CM could hold further application for oral mucosal diagnosis and management. Ovid Medline® and/or Google® searches were performed using the terms 'microscopy, confocal', 'mouth neoplasms', 'mouth mucosa', 'leukoplakia, oral', 'oral lichen planus', 'gingiva', 'cheilitis', 'taste', 'inflammatory oral confocal', 'mucosal confocal' and 'confocal squamous cell oral'. In summary, inclusion criteria were in vivo use of any type of CM for the human oral mucosa and studies on normal or pathological oral mucosa. Experimental studies attempting to identify proteins of interest and microorganisms were excluded. In total 25 relevant articles were found, covering 8 main topics, including normal oral mucosal features (n=15), oral dysplasia or neoplasia (n=7), inflamed oral mucosa (n=3), taste impairment (n=3), oral autoimmune conditions (n=2), pigmented oral pathology/melanoma (n=1), delayed type hypersensitivity (n=1), and cheilitis glandularis (n=1). The evidence for using in vivo CM in these conditions is poor, as it is limited to mainly small descriptive studies. Current device developments for oral CM include improved probe design. The authors propose that future applications for in vivo oral CM may include burning mouth syndrome, intra-operative mapping for cancer surgery, and monitoring and targeted biopsies within field cancerization. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Patient access schemes in Asia-pacific markets: current experience and future potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Christine Y; Lupton, Caitlin; Rakowsky, Shana; Babar, Zaheer-Ud-Din; Ross-Degnan, Dennis; Wagner, Anita K

    2015-01-01

    Patient access (or risk-sharing) schemes are alternative market access agreements between healthcare payers and medical product manufacturers for conditional coverage of promising health technologies. This study aims to identify and characterize patient access schemes to date in the Asia-Pacific region. We reviewed the literature on patient access schemes over the last two decades using publicly available databases, Internet, and grey literature searches. We extracted key features of each scheme identified, including the drug, clinical indication, stakeholders involved, and details of the scheme. We categorized schemes according to a previously published taxonomy of scheme types and by country. We identified 3 schemes in South Korea, 5 in New Zealand, and 98 in Australia. Most (97.2%; n = 103) schemes focused on pharmaceuticals, few on medical technologies. More than half of the schemes related to treatments for cancer and inflammatory diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis. The majority (77.4%; n =82) involved pricing arrangements. Evidence generation schemes were rarely used. About half (41.8%; n = 41) of schemes in Australia were hybrid by nature, consisting of pricing arrangements with a conditional treatment continuation component. Australia has the most experience with patient access schemes and its experience may provide useful insights for other Asia-Pacific countries. The main targets are pharmaceuticals likely to have high budget impact (due to high per-patient costs and/or large volumes of use), and pharmaceuticals that may be adopted more widely than indicated. With the proliferation of high-cost medicines, the use of schemes may increase to address rising cost pressures, consumer demands, and uncertainties, while attempting to provide patient access to innovative care within finite budgets. Future research is warranted to evaluate the performance of patient access schemes.

  1. Potential increase in floods in California's Sierra Nevada under future climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, T.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Hidalgo, H.G.

    2011-01-01

    California's mountainous topography, exposure to occasional heavily moisture-laden storm systems, and varied communities and infrastructures in low lying areas make it highly vulnerable to floods. An important question facing the state-in terms of protecting the public and formulating water management responses to climate change-is "how might future climate changes affect flood characteristics in California?" To help address this, we simulate floods on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the state's primary catchment, based on downscaled daily precipitation and temperature projections from three General Circulation Models (GCMs). These climate projections are fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, and the VIC-simulated streamflows and hydrologic conditions, from historical and from projected climate change runs, allow us to evaluate possible changes in annual maximum 3-day flood magnitudes and frequencies of floods. By the end of the 21st Century, all projections yield larger-than-historical floods, for both the Northern Sierra Nevada (NSN) and for the Southern Sierra Nevada (SSN). The increases in flood magnitude are statistically significant (at p <= 0. 01) for all the three GCMs in the period 2051-2099. The frequency of flood events above selected historical thresholds also increases under projections from CNRM CM3 and NCAR PCM1 climate models, while under the third scenario, GFDL CM2. 1, frequencies remain constant or decline slightly, owing to an overall drying trend. These increases appear to derive jointly from increases in heavy precipitation amount, storm frequencies, and days with more precipitation falling as rain and less as snow. Increases in antecedent winter soil moisture also play a role in some areas. Thus, a complex, as-yet unpredictable interplay of several different climatic influences threatens to cause increased flood hazards in California's complex western Sierra landscapes. ?? 2011 Springer Science

  2. Potential new CD metrology metric combined with data fusion for future node production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foucher, J.; Hazart, J.; Griesbach Schuch Figueiro, N.

    2012-03-01

    Introduction of new material stacks, more sophisticated design rules and complex 3D architectures in semiconductor technology has led to major metrology challenges by posing stringent measurement precision and accuracy requirements for various critical dimensions (CD), feature shape and profile. Current CD metrology techniques being used in development and production such as CD-SEM, scatterometry and CDAFM, individually have intrinsic limitations that must be overcome. The approach of hybrid automated metrology seems necessary. Using multiple tools in unison is an adequate solution when adding their respective strengths to overcome individual limitations. Such solution will give the industry a better metrology solution than the conventional approach. Nevertheless, this is not enough since the industry is requested for 2D and 3D profiles information. Indeed, CD, height and/or Sidewall angle are information which is limited for future nodes production. Full profile information is necessary. In this paper, the first part will be dedicated to the introduction of contour object as a new standard for the semiconductor industry. This metric will take into account all pattern's profile information in order to overcome the limitations of simple CD and/or SWA information. The second part will present and discuss results concerning data fusion and its application to hybrid metrology. We will illustrate hybrid metrology with an application to CD-SEM enhancement with a reference technique such as the AFM3D or TEM technology. We will show that it could be possible to improve RMS error of CD-SEM by a factor of 78%. We think that such trend can be extended to all microelectronic levels in IC manufacturing and subsequently significantly reduce cycle time and improve production yield through easier hotspot detection.

  3. T2* mapping for articular cartilage assessment: principles, current applications, and future prospects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hesper, Tobias; Bittersohl, Daniela; Krauspe, Ruediger; Zilkens, Christoph [University Duesseldorf, Department of Orthopaedics Medical Faculty, Duesseldorf (Germany); Hosalkar, Harish S. [Center of Hip Preservation and Children' s Orthopaedics, San Diego, CA (United States); Welsch, Goetz H. [Medical University of Vienna, MR Center, Department of Radiology, Vienna (Austria); Bittersohl, Bernd [University Duesseldorf, Department of Orthopaedics Medical Faculty, Duesseldorf (Germany); Heinrich-Heine University, Medical School, Department of Orthopaedics, Duesseldorf (Germany)

    2014-10-15

    With advances in joint preservation surgery that are intended to alter the course of osteoarthritis by early intervention, accurate and reliable assessment of the cartilage status is critical. Biochemically sensitive MRI techniques can add robust biomarkers for disease onset and progression, and therefore, could be meaningful assessment tools for the diagnosis and follow-up of cartilage abnormalities. T2* mapping could be a good alternative because it would combine the benefits of biochemical cartilage evaluation with remarkable features including short imaging time and the ability of high-resolution three-dimensional cartilage evaluation - without the need for contrast media administration or special hardware. Several in vitro and in vivo studies, which have elaborated on the potential of cartilage T2* assessment in various cartilage disease patterns and grades of degeneration, have been reported. However, much remains to be understood and certain unresolved questions have become apparent with these studies that are crucial to the further application of this technique. This review summarizes the principles of the technique and current applications of T2* mapping for articular cartilage assessment. Limitations of recent studies are discussed and the potential implications for patient care are presented. (orig.)

  4. Assessment of storm surge disaster potential for the Andaman Islands

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Kumar, V.S.; RameshBabu, V.; Babu, M.T.; Dhinakaran, G.; Rajamanickam, G.V.

    of the phenomenon, at least at the basic level and confidence in the authority responsible for warning. Predisaster Mitigation and Risk Assessment Plan The important factors in a predisaster management plan are detailed studies of the topography of the region... and enforce modern construction practice and planning in coastal set- tlements. Predisaster Management Strategy ● Assess the risk for the entire coastal belt under the threat of a cyclone. ● Collect the historic cyclone data for cyclones that have pro- duced...

  5. Ecological models in support of regulatory risk assessments of pesticides: developing a strategy for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forbes, Valery E; Hommen, Udo; Thorbek, Pernille; Heimbach, Fred; Van den Brink, Paul J; Wogram, Jörn; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Grimm, Volker

    2009-01-01

    This brief communication reports on the main findings of the LEMTOX workshop, held from 9 to 12 September 2007, at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) in Leipzig, Germany. The workshop brought together a diverse group of stakeholders from academia, regulatory authorities, contract research organizations, and industry, representing Europe, the United States, and Asia, to discuss the role of ecological modeling in risk assessments of pesticides, particularly under the European regulatory framework. The following questions were addressed: What are the potential benefits of using ecological models in pesticide registration and risk assessment? What obstacles prevent ecological modeling from being used routinely in regulatory submissions? What actions are needed to overcome the identified obstacles? What recommendations should be made to ensure good modeling practice in this context? The workshop focused exclusively on population models, and discussion was focused on those categories of population models that link effects on individuals (e.g., survival, growth, reproduction, behavior) to effects on population dynamics. The workshop participants concluded that the overall benefits of ecological modeling are that it could bring more ecology into ecological risk assessment, and it could provide an excellent tool for exploring the importance of, and interactions among, ecological complexities. However, there are a number of challenges that need to be overcome before such models will receive wide acceptance for pesticide risk assessment, despite having been used extensively in other contexts (e.g., conservation biology). The need for guidance on Good Modeling Practice (on model development, analysis, interpretation, evaluation, documentation, and communication), as well as the need for case studies that can be used to explore the added value of ecological models for risk assessment, were identified as top priorities. Assessing recovery potential of exposed

  6. Floating Offshore Wind in Hawaii: Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts from Three Future Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jimenez, Tony; Keyser, David; Tegen, Suzanne

    2016-04-18

    Construction of the first offshore wind power plant in the United States began in 2015, off the coast of Rhode Island, using fixed platform structures that are appropriate for shallow seafloors, like those located off the East Coast and mid-Atlantic. However, floating platforms, which have yet to be deployed commercially, will likely need to be anchored to the deeper seafloor if deployed in Hawaiian waters. To analyze the employment and economic potential for floating offshore wind off Hawaii's coasts, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to analyze two hypothetical deployment scenarios for Hawaii: 400 MW of offshore wind by 2050 and 800 MW of offshore wind by 2050. The results of this analysis can be used to better understand the general scale of economic opportunities that could result from offshore wind development.

  7. Sustainable Biomass Potentials for Food-Feed-Fuels in the Future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm-Nielsen, Jens Bo; Kirchovas, Simas

    2012-01-01

    Biomass sources as Woodchips – Wood pellets, Straw – Bio pellets, animal manure, farm-by products and new cropping systems are integrated in our society’s needs. The mindset for shifting from fossil fuels based economies into sustainable energy economies already exist. Bioenergy utilization systems...... has for many years been forming the basis for the change together with wind and solar energy. These resources still contains great potentials for energy supply chains in increasing areas of Europe and the World. Biomass sustainability issues could be solved by developing the international...... sustainability criteria. The sustainability criteria agreed internationally could be realized as a tool to secure the positive impacts of bioenergy and to foster the international trade. This study investigates the developments by national and international bodies of biomass standardization and certification...

  8. Cannabis Roots: A Traditional Therapy with Future Potential for Treating Inflammation and Pain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryz, Natasha R.; Remillard, David J.; Russo, Ethan B.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Introduction: The roots of the cannabis plant have a long history of medical use stretching back millennia. However, the therapeutic potential of cannabis roots has been largely ignored in modern times. Discussion: In the first century, Pliny the Elder described in Natural Histories that a decoction of the root in water could be used to relieve stiffness in the joints, gout, and related conditions. By the 17th century, various herbalists were recommending cannabis root to treat inflammation, joint pain, gout, and other conditions. There has been a subsequent paucity of research in this area, with only a few studies examining the composition of cannabis root and its medical potential. Active compounds identified and measured in cannabis roots include triterpenoids, friedelin (12.8 mg/kg) and epifriedelanol (21.3 mg/kg); alkaloids, cannabisativine (2.5 mg/kg) and anhydrocannabisativine (0.3 mg/kg); carvone and dihydrocarvone; N-(p-hydroxy-β-phenylethyl)-p-hydroxy-trans-cinnamamide (1.6 mg/kg); various sterols such as sitosterol (1.5%), campesterol (0.78%), and stigmasterol (0.56%); and other minor compounds, including choline. Of note, cannabis roots are not a significant source of Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), cannabidiol, or other known phytocannabinoids. Conclusion: The current available data on the pharmacology of cannabis root components provide significant support to the historical and ethnobotanical claims of clinical efficacy. Certainly, this suggests the need for reexamination of whole root preparations on inflammatory and malignant conditions employing modern scientific techniques. PMID:29082318

  9. Deployment potential and macro-economic impacts of carbon dioxide capture and storage in the future energy system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koelbl, B.S.

    2016-01-01

    This thesis investigates the deployment potential of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) under stringent climate policy targets and the possible macro-economic implications. First, we look at the use of CCS in scenarios of different Energy-Economy and Integrated Assessment Models. These scenarios look

  10. Coastal Change Potential (CPI) Assessment of Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore (indu_shore)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A coastal change potential index (CPI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future lake-level change within Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore in...

  11. Challenges and potentials in using alternative landscape futures during climate change: A literature review and survey study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Rastandeh

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the feasibility of applying alternative futures and scenario analysis in landscape planning during climate change to provide a wider perspective and deeper understanding of this approach for better use and more effective application in the future. The study consists of a literature review and an analysis of recent applied projects carried out worldwide. In addition, an electronic survey was conducted from March to September 2014 to examine viewpoints on the use and application of this approach with reference to climate-change impacts. The survey participants were a group of highly experienced researchers from eighteen countries involved in at least one applied project since 2000 relating to this topic. After analysis of more than forty applied projects, the survey results were incorporated into the analysis to create a comprehensive picture regarding the potentials and limitations of alternative futures and scenario analysis in landscape planning with particular attention to climate change. The findings show that this method is one of the most effective decision-making approaches for adopting landscape policies where landscapes change rapidly under the pressure of urbanisation and climate change. Nevertheless, there is a gap between the advances offered by the approach in various dimensions and the complexity of patterns, uncertainties and upheavals in landscapes due to climate-change impacts in the urbanising world. The research indicates that the approach opens up a great opportunity for decision-makers to expand their perspective and adopt appropriate landscape policies before reaching a point of no return from the sustainability point of view. Meanwhile, there are challenges and barriers in the application of alternative futures and scenario analysis for envisioning the landscapes influenced by climate change and urbanisation that should be pushed back. Although informative, this research raises new questions about this

  12. Assessing environmental impacts of offshore wind farms: lessons learned and recommendations for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Helen; Brookes, Kate L; Thompson, Paul M

    2014-01-01

    Offshore wind power provides a valuable source of renewable energy that can help reduce carbon emissions. Technological advances are allowing higher capacity turbines to be installed and in deeper water, but there is still much that is unknown about the effects on the environment. Here we describe the lessons learned based on the recent literature and our experience with assessing impacts of offshore wind developments on marine mammals and seabirds, and make recommendations for future monitoring and assessment as interest in offshore wind energy grows around the world. The four key lessons learned that we discuss are: 1) Identifying the area over which biological effects may occur to inform baseline data collection and determining the connectivity between key populations and proposed wind energy sites, 2) The need to put impacts into a population level context to determine whether they are biologically significant, 3) Measuring responses to wind farm construction and operation to determine disturbance effects and avoidance responses, and 4) Learn from other industries to inform risk assessments and the effectiveness of mitigation measures. As the number and size of offshore wind developments increases, there will be a growing need to consider the population level consequences and cumulative impacts of these activities on marine species. Strategically targeted data collection and modeling aimed at answering questions for the consenting process will also allow regulators to make decisions based on the best available information, and achieve a balance between climate change targets and environmental legislation.

  13. Assessing environmental impacts of offshore wind farms: lessons learned and recommendations for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Offshore wind power provides a valuable source of renewable energy that can help reduce carbon emissions. Technological advances are allowing higher capacity turbines to be installed and in deeper water, but there is still much that is unknown about the effects on the environment. Here we describe the lessons learned based on the recent literature and our experience with assessing impacts of offshore wind developments on marine mammals and seabirds, and make recommendations for future monitoring and assessment as interest in offshore wind energy grows around the world. The four key lessons learned that we discuss are: 1) Identifying the area over which biological effects may occur to inform baseline data collection and determining the connectivity between key populations and proposed wind energy sites, 2) The need to put impacts into a population level context to determine whether they are biologically significant, 3) Measuring responses to wind farm construction and operation to determine disturbance effects and avoidance responses, and 4) Learn from other industries to inform risk assessments and the effectiveness of mitigation measures. As the number and size of offshore wind developments increases, there will be a growing need to consider the population level consequences and cumulative impacts of these activities on marine species. Strategically targeted data collection and modeling aimed at answering questions for the consenting process will also allow regulators to make decisions based on the best available information, and achieve a balance between climate change targets and environmental legislation. PMID:25250175

  14. Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-08-01

    OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants.

  15. Assessment of Soil Liquefaction Potential Based on Numerical Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Choobasti, A. Janalizadeh; Vahdatirad, Mohammad Javad; Torabi, M.

    2012-01-01

    , a zone of the corridor of Tabriz urban railway line 2 susceptible to liquefaction was recognized. Then, using numerical analysis and cyclic stress method using QUAKE/W finite element code, soil liquefaction potential in susceptible zone was evaluated based on design earthquake....... simplified method have been developed over the years. Although simplified methods are available in calculating the liquefaction potential of a soil deposit and shear stresses induced at any point in the ground due to earthquake loading, these methods cannot be applied to all earthquakes with the same...

  16. Overview and Future Potential of Buccal Mucoadhesive Films as Drug Delivery Systems for Biologics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montenegro-Nicolini, Miguel; Morales, Javier O

    2017-01-01

    The main route of administration for drug products is the oral route, yet biologics are initially developed as injectables due to their limited stability through the gastrointestinal tract and solubility issues. In order to avoid injections, a myriad of investigations on alternative administration routes that can bypass enzymatic degradation and the first-pass effect are found in the literature. As an alternative site for biologics absorption, the buccal route presents with a number of advantages. The buccal mucosa is a barrier, providing protection to underlying tissue, but is more permeable than other alternative routes such as the skin. Buccal films are polymeric matrices designed to be mucoadhesive properties and usually formulated with permeability enhancers to improve bioavailability. Conventionally, buccal films for biologics are manufactured by solvent casting, yet recent developments have shown the potential of hot melt extrusion, and most recently ink jet printing as promising strategies. This review aims at depicting the field of biologics-loaded mucoadhesive films as buccal drug delivery systems. In light of the literature available, the buccal epithelium is a promising route for biologics administration, which is reflected in clinical trials currently in progress, looking forward to register and commercialize the first biologic product formulated as a buccal film.

  17. Floating Offshore Wind in California: Gross Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts from Two Future Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Speer, Bethany [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tegen, Suzanne [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-04-18

    Construction of the first offshore wind farm in the United States began in 2015, using fixed platform structures that are appropriate for shallow seafloors, like those located off of the East Coast and mid-Atlantic. However, floating platforms, which have yet to be deployed commercially, will likely need to anchor to the deeper seafloor if deployed off of the West Coast. To analyze the employment and economic potential for floating offshore wind along the West Coast, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) has commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to analyze two hypothetical, large-scale deployment scenarios for California: 16 GW of offshore wind by 2050 (Scenario A) and 10 GW of offshore wind by 2050 (Scenario B). The results of this analysis can be used to better understand the general scales of economic opportunities that could result from offshore wind development. Results show total state gross domestic product (GDP) impacts of $16.2 billion in Scenario B or $39.7 billion in Scenario A for construction; and $3.5 billion in Scenario B or $7.9 billion in Scenario A for the operations phases.

  18. Current and Future Potential Risk of Establishment of Grapholita molesta (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in Washington State.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neven, Lisa G; Kumar, Sunil; Yee, Wee L; Wakie, Tewodros

    2018-02-17

    The oriental fruit moth, Grapholita molesta (Busck) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), is a primary pest of stone fruits that cause significant economic damage. Larvae, which enter the host plant through shoot tips, damage shoots, and ripe fruits. Native to Asia, this pest now occurs in many fruit-growing countries, including the United States and Canada. Though the pest was previously reported from many states within the United States, its current distribution and the environmental variables that influence its distribution are not properly identified. The objectives of this study were to 1) identify the environmental factors associated with G. molesta current distribution, 2) predict the current distribution of G. molesta in Washington State (WA) using Maxent and Climex models, 3) identify those areas within WA best suited for establishment of pest free zones, areas of low pest prevalence, and pest free production areas, and 4) identify regions most at risk for further expansion of G. molesta populations as a function of climate change. The current models predicted a small portion of central WA is suitable to support G. molesta, which is consistent with observed distributions. However, climate change models predict that more areas will become suitable for the pest. These results indicate that action should be taken to monitor and reduce current populations of G. molesta to stem its potential expansion into the major commercial tree fruit production areas in the state.

  19. Angolan vegetable crops have unique genotypes of potential value for future breeding programmes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José P. Domingos

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available A survey was carried out in Angola with the aim of collecting vegetable crops. Collecting expeditions were conducted in Kwanza-Sul, Benguela, Huíla and Namibe Provinces and a total of 80 accessions belonging to 22 species was collected from farmers and local markets. Species belonging to the Solanaceae (37 accessions and Cucurbitaceae (36 accessions families were the most frequently found with pepper and eggplant being the predominant solanaceous crops collected. Peppers were sold in local markets as a mixture of different types, even different species: Capsicum chinense, C. baccatum, C. frutescens and C. pubescens. Most of the eggplant accessions collected belonged to Solanum aethiopicum L. Gilo Group, the so-called ‘scarlet eggplant’. Cucurbita genus was better represented than the other cucurbit crops. A high morphological variation was present in the Cucurbita maxima and C. moschata accessions. A set of 22 Cucurbita accessions from Angola, along with 32 Cucurbita controls from a wide range of origins, was cultivated in Valencia, Spain and characterised based on morphology and molecularity using a set of 15 microsatellite markers. A strong dependence on latitude was found in most of the accessions and as a result, many accessions did not set fruit. The molecular analysis showed high molecular variability and uniqueness in the collected accessions, as shown by their segregation from the set of global controls. In summary, the material collected is quite valuable because of its uniqueness and the potential of the breeding characteristics it possesses.

  20. Synthesis and production of polyhydroxyalkanoates by halophiles: current potential and future prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quillaguamán, Jorge; Guzmán, Héctor; Van-Thuoc, Doan; Hatti-Kaul, Rajni

    2010-02-01

    Biodegradable materials with plastic or elastomeric properties are in great demand for a variety of applications. Polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs), polyesters synthesized by microorganisms, possess such desired features. Industrial production of PHAs is currently achieved using recombinant Escherichia coli. Nevertheless, recent research on halophiles, salt requiring microorganisms, has shown a remarkable potential for biotechnological production of PHAs. The halophilic archaeon Haloferax mediterranei accumulates a co-polymer, i.e., poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) in large amounts using glucose, starch, and hydrolyzed whey as carbon sources. Chemical composition and molecular weight of PHAs produced by H. mediterranei can be modified depending on the substrate utilized as precursor. Phylogenetic studies on haloarchaeal enzymes able to polymerize the components of PHAs (i.e., PHA synthases) reveal a novel cluster, with a close relationship with PHA polymerases of bacteria and archaea found in marine-related niches. On the other hand, sequences of PHA synthases of two halophilic bacteria are more closely affiliated to synthases of Proteobacteria. Several bacterial species of the family Halomonadaceae accumulate PHAs. Halomonas boliviensis reached PHA yields and volumetric productivities close to the highest reported so far. Furthermore, H. boliviensis and other Halomonas species are able to co-produce PHA and osmolytes, i.e., ectoines and hydroxyectoine, in one process.

  1. Microalgae Potential and Multiple Roles—Current Progress and Future Prospects—An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balasubramani Ravindran

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Substantial progress has been made in algal technologies in past few decades. Initially, microalgae drew the attention of the scientific community as a renewable source of biofuels due to its high productivity over a short period of time and potential of significant lipid accumulation. As of now, a technological upsurge has elaborated its scope in phycoremediation of both organic and inorganic pollutants. The dual role of microalgae—i.e., phycoremediation coupled with energy production—is well established, however, commercially, algal biofuel production is not yet sustainable due to high energy inputs. Efforts are being made to make the algal biofuel economy through modification in the cultivation conditions, harvesting, and extraction of value added products. Recent studies have demonstrated algal biomass production with various types of wastewater and industrial effluents. Similarly, the recent advent of eco-friendly harvesting technologies—such as low-cost green coagulants, electrochemical harvesting, etc.—are energy efficient and economical. Contemporary improvement in efficient lipid extraction from biomass will make algal biodiesel economical. The absolute extraction of all the value added products from algal biomass, either whole cell or lipid extracted biomass, in a complete biorefinery approach will be more economical and eco-friendly.

  2. Therapeutic Potential, Challenges and Future Perspective of Cancer Stem Cells in Translational Oncology: A Critical Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Gaurav; Khera, Harvinder Kour; Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Khare, Piush; Patidar, Rahul; Saxena, Rajiv

    2017-01-01

    Stem cell research is a rapidly developing field that offers effective treatment for a variety of malignant and non-malignant diseases. Stem cell is a regenerative medicine associated with the replacement, repair, and restoration of injured tissue. Stem cell research is a promising field having maximum therapeutic potential. Cancer stem cells (CSCs) are the cells within the tumor that posses capacity of selfrenewal and have a root cause for the failure of traditional therapies leading to re-occurrence of cancer. CSCs have been identified in blood, breast, brain, and colon cancer. Traditional therapies target only fast growing tumor mass, but not slow-dividing cancer stem cells. It has been shown that embryonic pathways such as Wnt, Hedgehog and Notch, control self-renewal capacity and involved in cancer stem cell maintenance. Targeting of these pathways may be effective in eradicating cancer stem cells and preventing chemotherapy and radiotherapy resistance. Targeting CSCs has become one of the most effective approaches to improve the cancer survival by eradicating the main root cause of cancer. The present review will address, in brief, the importance of cancer stem cells in targeting cancer as better and effective treatment along with a concluding outlook on the scope and challenges in the implication of cancer stem cells in translational oncology. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

  3. Bariatric surgery and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: current and potential future treatments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akira eSasaki

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH are increasingly common cause of chronic liver disease worldwide. The diagnosis of NASH is challenging as most affected patients are symptom-free and the role of routine screening is not clearly established. Most patients with severe obesity who undergo bariatric surgery have NAFLD, which is associated insulin resistance, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM, hypertension, and obesity-related dyslipidemia. The effective treatment for NAFLD is weight reduction through lifestyle modifications, antiobesity medication, or bariatric surgery. Among these treatments, bariatric surgery is the most reliable method for achieving substantial, sustained weight loss. This procedure is safe when performed by a skilled surgeon, and the benefits include reduced weight, improved quality of life, decreased obesity-related comorbidities, and increased life expectancy. Further research is urgently needed to determine the best use of bariatric surgery with NAFLD patients at high risk of developing liver cirrhosis and its role in modulating complications of NAFLD, such as T2DM and cardiovascular disease. The current evidence suggests that bariatric surgery for patients with severe obesity decreases the grade of steatosis, hepatic inflammation, and fibrosis. However, further long-term studies are required to confirm the true effects before recommending bariatric surgery as a potential treatment for nonalcoholic steatohepatitis.

  4. Anti-diabetic potential of peptides: Future prospects as therapeutic agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marya; Khan, Haroon; Nabavi, Seyed Mohammad; Habtemariam, Solomon

    2018-01-15

    Diabetes mellitus is a metabolic disorder in which the glucose level in blood exceeds beyond the normal level. Persistent hyperglycemia leads to diabetes late complication and obviously account for a large number of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Numerous therapeutic options are available for the treatment of diabetes including insulin for type I and oral tablets for type II, but its effective management is still a dream. To date, several options are under investigation in various research laboratories for efficacious and safer agents. Of them, peptides are currently amongst the most widely investigated potential therapeutic agents whose design and optimal uses are under development. A number of natural and synthetic peptides have so far been found with outstanding antidiabetic effect mediated through diverse mechanisms. The applications of new emerging techniques and drug delivery systems further offer opportunities to achieve the desired target outcomes. Some outstanding peptides in preclinical and clinical studies with better efficacy and safety profile have already been identified. Further detail studies on these peptides may therefore lead to significant clinically useful antidiabetic agents. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  5. Lipid content and composition of oocytes from five coral species: potential implications for future cryopreservation efforts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiahsin Lin

    Full Text Available Given the previously documented importance of lipid concentration and composition in the successful cryopreservation of gorgonian corals, these parameters were assessed in oocytes of five species of scleractinian coral; Platygyra daedalea, Echinopora gemmacea, Echinophyllia aspera, Oxypora lacera and Astreopora expansa. Wax esters, phosphatidylethanolamine, phosphatidylcholine, and fatty acids were all measured at detectable levels, and the latter were produced at significantly elevated quantities in E. gemmacea, E. aspera, and O. lacera. On the other hand, phosphatidylethanolamine, phosphatidylcholine, and wax ester were found at significantly higher concentrations in A. expansa oocytes. Triacylglycerol was not present in any species. Interestingly, the total lipid content of oocytes from all five scleractinians was significantly lower than that of oocytes of two gorgonian species, Junceella juncea and Junceella fragilis. As higher total lipid concentrations may be correlated with greater degrees of cellular membrane fluidity at lower temperatures, it stands to reason that gorgonian coral oocytes may be more likely to survive the cryopreservation process than oocytes of scleractinian corals.

  6. Potential performance for Pb-Pb, p-Pb and p-p collisions in a future circular collider

    CERN Document Server

    Schaumann, Michaela

    2015-09-09

    The hadron collider studied in the Future Circular Collider (FCC) project could operate with protons and lead ions in similar operation modes as the LHC. In this paper the potential performances in lead-lead, proton-lead and proton-proton collisions are investigated. Based on average lattice parameters, the strengths of intra-beam scattering and radiation damping are evaluated and their effect on the beam and luminosity evolution is presented. Estimates for the integrated luminosity per fill and per run are given, depending on the turnaround time. Moreover, the beam-beam tune shift and bound free pair production losses in heavy-ion operation are addressed.

  7. Potential performance for Pb-Pb, p-Pb, and p-p collisions in a future circular collider

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michaela Schaumann

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The hadron collider studied in the future circular collider (FCC project could operate with protons and lead ions in similar operation modes as the LHC. In this paper the potential performances in lead-lead, proton-lead, and proton-proton collisions are investigated. Based on average lattice parameters, the strengths of intrabeam scattering and radiation damping are evaluated and their effect on the beam and luminosity evolution is presented. Estimates for the integrated luminosity per fill and per run are given, depending on the turnaround time. Moreover, the beam-beam tune shift and bound free pair production losses in heavy-ion operation are addressed.

  8. Information resources for assessing health effects from chemical exposure: Challenges, priorities, and future issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seigel, S. [National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD (United States)

    1990-12-31

    Issues related to developing information resources for assessing the health effects from chemical exposure include the question of how to address the individual political issues relevant to identifying and determining the timeliness, scientific credibility, and completeness of such kinds of information resources. One of the important ways for agencies to share information is through connection tables. This type of software is presently being used to build information products for some DHHS agencies. One of the challenges will be to convince vendors of data of the importance of trying to make data files available to communities that need them. In the future, information processing will be conducted with neural networks, object-oriented database management systems, and fuzzy-set technologies, and meta analysis techniques.

  9. Mountain Home Air Force Base, Idaho Geothermal Resource Assessment and Future Recommendations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joseph C. Armstrong; Robert P. Breckenridge; Dennis L. Nielson; John W. Shervais; Thomas R. Wood

    2013-03-01

    The U.S. Air Force is facing a number of challenges as it moves into the future, one of the biggest being how to provide safe and secure energy to support base operations. A team of scientists and engineers met at Mountain Home Air Force Base in early 2011 near Boise, Idaho, to discuss the possibility of exploring for geothermal resources under the base. The team identified that there was a reasonable potential for geothermal resources based on data from an existing well. In addition, a regional gravity map helped identify several possible locations for drilling a new well. The team identified several possible sources of funding for this well—the most logical being to use U.S. Department of Energy funds to drill the upper half of the well and U.S. Air Force funds to drill the bottom half of the well. The well was designed as a slimhole well in accordance with State of Idaho Department of Water Resources rules and regulations. Drilling operations commenced at the Mountain Home site in July of 2011 and were completed in January of 2012. Temperatures increased gradually, especially below a depth of 2000 ft. Temperatures increased more rapidly below a depth of 5500 ft. The bottom of the well is at 5976 ft, where a temperature of about 140°C was recorded. The well flowed artesian from a depth below 5600 ft, until it was plugged off with drilling mud. Core samples were collected from the well and are being analyzed to help understand permeability at depth. Additional tests using a televiewer system will be run to evaluate orientation and directions at fractures, especially in the production zone. A final report on the well exploitation will be forthcoming later this year. The Air Force will use it to evaluate the geothermal resource potential for future private development options at Mountain Home Air Force Base. In conclusion, Recommendation for follow-up efforts include the following:

  10. Vehicle Shield Optimization and Risk Assessment for Future Human Space Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nounu, Hatem N.; Kim, Myung-Hee; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    As the focus of future human space missions shifts to destinations beyond low Earth orbit such as Near Earth Objects (NEO), the moon, or Mars, risks associated with extended stay in hostile radiation environment need to be well understood and assessed. Since future spacecrafts designs and shapes are evolving continuous assessments of shielding and radiation risks are needed. In this study, we use a predictive software capability that calculates risks to humans inside a spacecraft prototype that builds on previous designs. The software uses CAD software Pro/Engineer and Fishbowl tool kit to quantify radiation shielding provided by the spacecraft geometry by calculating the areal density seen at a certain point, dose point, inside the spacecraft. Shielding results are used by NASA-developed software, BRYNTRN, to quantify organ doses received in a human body located in the vehicle in case of solar particle event (SPE) during such prolonged space missions. Organ doses are used to quantify risks on astronauts health and life using NASA Space Cancer Model. The software can also locate shielding weak points-hotspots-on the spacecraft s outer surface. This capability is used to reinforce weak areas in the design. Results of shielding optimization and risk calculation on an exploration vehicle design for missions of 6 months and 30 months are provided in this study. Vehicle capsule is made of aluminum shell that includes main cabin and airlock. The capsule contains 5 sets of racks that surround working and living areas. Water shelter is provided in the main cabin of the vehicle to enhance shielding in case of SPE.

  11. Assessment of the sustainable offshore wind potential in Portugal

    OpenAIRE

    Costa, P; Simões, T.; Estanqueiro, Ana

    2006-01-01

    The sustainable offshore wind potential for the west and south coasts of Portugal is presented. Results were carried out using an atmospheric mesoscale model and GIS tools. Unlike previous common opinions, the preliminary results show the existence of interesting areas for the developing of offshore wind parks.

  12. assessment of dairy wastewater treatment and its potential for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    The extent of pollution of dairy wastewater treated in a septic tank and its potential for biogas production was investigated. ... effluent displaying higher values of organic matter than the allowed discharge limits according to the national standards. ..... consuming-bacteria in anaerobic digestion at the wastewater ponds (Wang ...

  13. Assessing the potential of remote sensing to discriminate invasive ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The usefulness of remote sensing to discriminate Seriphium plumosum from grass using a field spectrometer data was investigated in this study. Analysis focused on wavelength regions that showed potential of discriminating S. plumosum from grass which were determined from global pair spectral comparison between S.

  14. and Assessment of its potential use in Zimbabwe

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. To investigate the potential use of manila {Sclerocarya caffrä) oil, dried manila seeds were crashed to release the kernels and oil was extracted using Soxhlet apparatus and the characteristics of oil determined. The average oil content was found to be SS.9 %. The saponification value of the oil was in the range ...

  15. Assessment of the Geothermal Potential Within the BPA Marketing Area.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lund, John W.; Allen, Eliot D.

    1980-07-01

    The potential of geothermal energy is estimated that can be used for direct heat applications and electrical power generation within the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) marketing area. The BPA marketing area includes three principal states of Oregon, Washington, and Idaho and portions of California, Montana, Wyoming, Nevada, and Utah bordering on these three states. This area covers approximately 384,000 square miles and has an estimated population of 6,760,000. The total electrical geothermal potential within this marketing area is 4077 MW/sub e/ from hydrothermal resources and 16,000 MW/sub e/ from igneous systems, whereas the total thermal (wellhead) potential is 16.15 x 10/sup 15/ Btu/y. Approximately 200 geothermal resource sites were initially identified within the BPA marketing area. This number was then reduced to about 100 sites thought to be the most promising for development by the year 2000. These 100 sites, due to load area overlap, were grouped into 53 composite sites; 21-3/4 within BPA preference customer areas and 31-1/4 within nonpreference customer areas. The geothermal resource potential was then estimated for high-temperature (> 302/sup 0/F = 150/sup 0/C), intermediate-temperature (194 to 302/sup 0/F = 90 to 150/sup 0/C), and low-temperature (< 194/sup 0/F = 90/sup 0/C) resources.

  16. Assessing Botswana's Textiles Export Trade Potential Using the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Through the application of the gravity trade model technique, the study investigates countries for which Botswana has unrealized export trade potential in textile products. The estimated results indicate that Canada, Denmark, Finland, Ghana, Mozambique and Switzerland are the export destinations to which Botswana ...

  17. Wind energy potential assessment at four typical locations in Ethiopia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bekele, Getachew; Palm, Bjoern [Department of Energy Technology, KTH, 10044 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2009-03-15

    The wind energy potential at four different sites in Ethiopia - Addis Ababa (09:02N, 38:42E), Mekele (13:33N, 39:30E), Nazret (08:32N, 39:22E), and Debrezeit (8:44N, 39:02E) - has been investigated by compiling data from different sources and analyzing it using a software tool. The results relating to wind energy potential are given in terms of the monthly average wind speed, wind speed probability density function (PDF), wind speed cumulative density function (CDF), and wind speed duration curve (DC) for all four selected sites. In brief, for measurements taken at a height of 10 m, the results show that for three of the four locations the wind energy potential is reasonable, with average wind speeds of approximately 4 m/s. For the fourth site, the mean wind speed is less than 3 m/s. This study is the first stage in a longer project and will be followed by an analysis of solar energy potential and finally the design of a hybrid standalone electric energy supply system that includes a wind turbine, PV, diesel generator and battery. (author)

  18. Assessing the biological potential of N2-fixing Leguminosae in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... fodder and grain production to support the growing local livestock and wildlife industries. Additionally, identifying native rhizobia in Botswana that alleviate water stress when in symbioses with legumes could be a first step to tapping the biological potential of the Leguminosae for increased yields in drier environments.

  19. Assessment of Pollution Potential of Cyanide-Bearing Tailings Dam ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    It was concluded that the cyanide bearing tailings material has short term pollution potential of free cyanides, ammonium ions, sulphates ions and a long term risk of, complexed cyanide, nitrate and increase in water hardness due to bicarbonate ion. Heavy metal pollution and a decrease in pH are also possible.

  20. Assessment of biofuel potential of dead neem leaves ( Azadirachta ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dead leaves of neem trees in the Sahelian urban zone are among the wastes that are underutilized, since it is either buried or burnt, and thus, contribute to increased environmental pollution. Unfortunately, the lack of information on the biomass and energy potentials of these wastes empedes any initiative for its industrial ...

  1. Assessment of the potential for sustainable community tourism ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Nandoni Dam was constructed amidst much fanfare regarding the social and economic benefits that would accrue to the local communities. Although not specifically stated, tourism was implied, which could lead to employment and the general upliftment of these communities. The potential for tourism enterprises, such ...

  2. Assessment of the phytoremediation potential of Panicum maximum ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Non-vascular plants have potential for rapid uptake of metals, but are rarely used for phytoremediation because of their short life cycle. This property can however be advantageously used in a number of metal removal cycles within a short time. The selection of promising plants is critical to success of phytoremediation.

  3. Assessment of the phytoremediation potential of Panicum maximum ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    SAM

    2014-05-07

    May 7, 2014 ... Non-vascular plants have potential for rapid uptake of metals, but are rarely used for phytoremediation because of their short life cycle. This property can however be advantageously used in a number of metal removal cycles within a short time. The selection of promising plants is critical to success of.

  4. Water-balance approach for assessing potential for smallholder ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Guidance to avoid over-exploitation of the resource is also provided. The methodology is applied to 2 sites in West Africa with contrasting climatic and subsurface conditions. At both sites the analysis reveals that there is significant potential for further groundwater development for irrigation whilst allowing provisions for other ...

  5. 77 FR 31353 - An Assessment of Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, AK

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-25

    ... AGENCY An Assessment of Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, AK AGENCY... of Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, Alaska'' (EPA-910-R-12-004a-d). The... draft ``An Assessment of Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, Alaska'' is...

  6. Futures Analysis of Urban Land Use and Wetland Change in Saskatoon, Canada: An Application in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anton Sizo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a scenario-based approach to strategic environmental assessment (SEA for wetland trend analysis and land use and land cover (LUC modeling in an urban environment. The application is focused on the Saskatoon urban environment, a rapidly growing urban municipality in Canada’s prairie pothole region. Alternative future LUC was simulated using remote sensing data and city spatial planning documentation using a Markov Chain technique. Two alternatives were developed and compared for LUC change and threats to urban wetland sustainability: a zero alternative that simulated trends in urban development and wetland conservation under a business as usual scenario, in the absence of prescribed planning and zoning actions; and an alternative focused on implementation of current urban development plans, which simulated future LUC to account for prescribed wetland conservation strategies. Results show no improvement in future wetland conditions under the city’s planned growth and wetland conservation scenario versus the business as usual scenario. Results also indicate that a blanket wetland conservation strategy for the city may not be sufficient to overcome the historic trend of urban wetland loss; and that spatially distributed conservation rates, based on individual wetland water catchment LUC peculiarities, may be more effective in terms of wetland conservation. The paper also demonstrates the challenges to applied SEA in a rapidly changing urban planning context, where data are often sparse and inconsistent across the urban region, and provides potential solutions through LUC classification and prediction tools to help overcome data limitations to support land use planning decisions for wetland conservation.

  7. Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helge Walentowski

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available We compared results derived using three different approaches to assess the suitability of common tree species on the Franconian Plateau in southern Germany under projected warmer and drier climate conditions in the period 2061-2080. The study area is currently a relatively warm and dry region of Germany. We calculated species distribution models (SDMs using information on species’ climate envelopes to predict regional species spectra under 63 different climate change scenarios. We complemented this with fine-scale ecological niche analysis using data from 51 vegetation surveys in seven forest reserves in the study area, and tree-ring analysis (TRA from local populations of five tree species to quantify their sensitivity to climatic extreme years. The SDMs showed that predicted future climate change in the region remains within the climate envelope of certain species (e.g. Quercus petraea, whilst for e.g. Fagus sylvatica, future climate conditions in one third of the scenarios are too warm and dry. This was confirmed by the TRA: sensitivity to drought periods is lower for Q. petraea than for F. sylvatica. The niche analysis shows that the local ecological niches of Quercus robur and Fraxinus excelsior are mainly characterized by soils providing favorable water supply than by climate, and Pinus sylvestris (planted is strongly influenced by light availability. The best adapted species for a warmer and potentially drier climate in the study region are Acer campestre, Sorbus torminalis, S. aria, Ulmus minor, and Tilia platyphyllos, which should therefore play a more prominent role in future climate-resilient mixed forest ecosystems.

  8. Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holman, I P; Brown, C; Janes, V; Sandars, D

    2017-02-01

    The global land system is facing unprecedented pressures from growing human populations and climatic change. Understanding the effects these pressures may have is necessary to designing land management strategies that ensure food security, ecosystem service provision and successful climate mitigation and adaptation. However, the number of complex, interacting effects involved makes any complete understanding very difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, the recent development of integrated modelling frameworks allows for the exploration of the co-development of human and natural systems under scenarios of global change, potentially illuminating the main drivers and processes in future land system change. Here, we use one such integrated modelling framework (the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform) to investigate the range of projected outcomes in the European land system across climatic and socio-economic scenarios for the 2050s. We find substantial consistency in locations and types of change even under the most divergent conditions, with results suggesting that climate change alone will lead to a contraction in the agricultural and forest area within Europe, particularly in southern Europe. This is partly offset by the introduction of socioeconomic changes that change both the demand for agricultural production, through changing food demand and net imports, and the efficiency of agricultural production. Simulated extensification and abandonment in the Mediterranean region is driven by future decreases in the relative profitability of the agricultural sector in southern Europe, owing to decreased productivity as a consequence of increased heat and drought stress and reduced irrigation water availability. The very low likelihood (future policy should seek to promote and support the multifunctional role of agriculture and forests in different European regions, rather than focusing on increased productivity as a route to agricultural and forestry viability.

  9. Assessing Sensitivity to Unmeasured Confounding Using a Simulated Potential Confounder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnegie, Nicole Bohme; Harada, Masataka; Hill, Jennifer L.

    2016-01-01

    A major obstacle to developing evidenced-based policy is the difficulty of implementing randomized experiments to answer all causal questions of interest. When using a nonexperimental study, it is critical to assess how much the results could be affected by unmeasured confounding. We present a set of graphical and numeric tools to explore the…

  10. A preliminary assessment of the potential risks from electrical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    concern in Kenya, 17 (71 %) face a high risk of direct interactions with electrical infrastructure. Priority species ... A rapid preliminary risk assessment of electrical infrastructure was conducted in two areas of Kenya: i) ..... The fundamentals and practice of Overhead Line Maintenance (132kV and above), pp217-245. Eskom ...

  11. The potential impact of computer-aided assessment technology in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Distance learning generally separates students from educators, and demands that interventions be put in place to counter the constraints that this distance poses to learners and educators. Further more 'Increased number of students in Higher Education and the corresponding increase in time spent by staff on assessment ...

  12. Independent Review of Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Review Panel: Soroosh Sorooshian, Ph.D., Panel Chairperson, University of California, Irvine; Jan M. H. Hendrickx, Ph.D., New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology; Binayak P. Mohanty, Ph.D., Texas A& M University; Scott W. Tyler, Ph.D., University of Nevada, Reno; Tian-Chyi Jim Yeh, Ph.D., University of Arizona -- ORISE Review Facilitators: Robert S. Turner, Ph.D., Technical Review Group Manager, Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education; Brian R. Herndon, Project Manager, Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education; Russ Manning, Technical Writer/Editor, Haselwood Enterprises, Inc.

    2008-08-30

    The DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) tasked Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) with providing an independent expert review of the documented model and prediction results for net infiltration of water into the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain. The specific purpose of the model, as documented in the report MDL-NBS-HS-000023, Rev. 01, is “to provide a spatial representation, including epistemic and aleatory uncertainty, of the predicted mean annual net infiltration at the Yucca Mountain site ...” (p. 1-1) The expert review panel assembled by ORISE concluded that the model report does not provide a technically credible spatial representation of net infiltration at Yucca Mountain. Specifically, the ORISE Review Panel found that: • A critical lack of site-specific meteorological, surface, and subsurface information prevents verification of (i) the net infiltration estimates, (ii) the uncertainty estimates of parameters caused by their spatial variability, and (iii) the assumptions used by the modelers (ranges and distributions) for the characterization of parameters. The paucity of site-specific data used by the modeling team for model implementation and validation is a major deficiency in this effort. • The model does not incorporate at least one potentially important hydrologic process. Subsurface lateral flow is not accounted for by the model, and the assumption that the effect of subsurface lateral flow is negligible is not adequately justified. This issue is especially critical for the wetter climate periods. This omission may be one reason the model results appear to underestimate net infiltration beneath wash environments and therefore imprecisely represent the spatial variability of net infiltration. • While the model uses assumptions consistently, such as uniform soil depths and a constant vegetation rooting depth, such assumptions may not be appropriate for this net infiltration simulation because they

  13. Aversive effects of ethanol in adolescent versus adult rats: potential causes and implication for future drinking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schramm-Sapyta, Nicole L; DiFeliceantonio, Alexandra G; Foscue, Ethan; Glowacz, Susan; Haseeb, Naadeyah; Wang, Nancy; Zhou, Cathy; Kuhn, Cynthia M

    2010-12-01

    Many people experiment with alcohol and other drugs of abuse during their teenage years. Epidemiological evidence suggests that younger initiates into drug taking are more likely to develop problematic drug seeking behavior, including binge and other high-intake behaviors. The level of drug intake for any individual depends on the balance of rewarding and aversive effects of the drug in that individual. Multiple rodent studies have demonstrated that aversive effects of drugs of abuse are reduced in adolescent compared to adult animals. In this study, we addressed 2 key questions: First, do reduced aversive effects of ethanol in younger rats correlate with increased ethanol consumption? Second, are the reduced aversive effects in adolescents attributable to reduced sensitivity to ethanol's physiologic effects? Adolescent and adult rats were tested for ethanol conditioned taste aversion (CTA) followed by a voluntary drinking period, including postdeprivation consumption. Multivariate regression was used to assess correlations. In separate experiments, adolescent and adult rats were tested for their sensitivity to the hypothermic and sedative effects of ethanol, and for blood ethanol concentrations (BECs). We observed that in adolescent rats but not adults, taste aversion was inversely correlated with postdeprivation consumption. Adolescents also exhibited a greater increase in consumption after deprivation than adults. Furthermore, the age difference in ethanol CTA was not attributable to differences in hypothermia, sedation, or BECs. These results suggest that during adolescence, individuals that are insensitive to aversive effects are most likely to develop problem drinking behaviors. These results underscore the importance of the interaction between developmental stage and individual variation in sensitivity to alcohol. Copyright © 2010 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

  14. Infrared cameras are potential traceable "fixed points" for future thermometry studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yap Kannan, R; Keresztes, K; Hussain, S; Coats, T J; Bown, M J

    2015-01-01

    The National physical laboratory (NPL) requires "fixed points" whose temperatures have been established by the International Temperature Scale of 1990 (ITS 90) be used for device calibration. In practice, "near" blackbody radiators together with the standard platinum resistance thermometer is accepted as a standard. The aim of this study was to report the correlation and limits of agreement (LOA) of the thermal infrared camera and non-contact infrared temporal thermometer against each other and the "near" blackbody radiator. Temperature readings from an infrared thermography camera (FLIR T650sc) and a non-contact infrared temporal thermometer (Hubdic FS-700) were compared to a near blackbody (Hyperion R blackbody model 982) at 0.5 °C increments between 20-40 °C. At each increment, blackbody cavity temperature was confirmed with the platinum resistance thermometer. Measurements were taken initially with the thermal infrared camera followed by the infrared thermometer, with each device mounted in turn on a stand at a fixed distance of 20 cm and 5 cm from the blackbody aperture, respectively. The platinum thermometer under-estimated the blackbody temperature by 0.015 °C (95% LOA: -0.08 °C to 0.05 °C), in contrast to the thermal infrared camera and infrared thermometer which over-estimated the blackbody temperature by 0.16 °C (95% LOA: 0.03 °C to 0.28 °C) and 0.75 °C (95% LOA: -0.30 °C to 1.79 °C), respectively. Infrared thermometer over-estimates thermal infrared camera measurements by 0.6 °C (95% LOA: -0.46 °C to 1.65 °C). In conclusion, the thermal infrared camera is a potential temperature reference "fixed point" that could substitute mercury thermometers. However, further repeatability and reproducibility studies will be required with different models of thermal infrared cameras.

  15. Steps toward a globally available malaria vaccine: harnessing the potential of algae for future low cost vaccines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Carla S; Mayfield, Stephen P

    2013-01-01

    Malaria is an infectious disease that threatens half of the world's population. This debilitating disease is caused by infection from parasites of the genus Plasmodium. Insecticides, bed nets and drug therapies have lowered the prevalence and death rate associated with malaria but this disease continues to plague many populations around the world. In recent years, many organizations have suggested developing methods for a complete eradication of malaria. The most straightforward and effective method for this potential eradication will be through the development of a low-cost vaccine. To achieve eradication, it will be necessary to develop new vaccine candidates and novel systems for both the production and delivery of these vaccines. Recently, the green algae Chlamydomonas reinhardtii has been used for the recombinant expression of malaria vaccine candidates including the transmission blocking vaccine candidate Pfs48/45. Here, we discuss the potential of this research on the future development of a low-cost malaria vaccine candidate.

  16. Assessment of future extreme climate events over the Porto wine Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viceto, Carolina; Cardoso, Susana; Marta-Almeida, Martinho; Gorodetskaya, Irina; Rocha, Alfredo

    2017-04-01

    The Douro Demarcated Region (DDR) is a wine region, in the northern Portugal, recognized for the Porto wine, which is responsible for more than 60% of the total value of national wine exportations. Since the viticulture is highly dependent on weather/climate patterns, the global warming is expected to affect the areas suitable to the growth of a certain variety of grape, its production and quality. This highlights the need of regional studies that assess the future climate changes effects in the vineyard, which might allow an early adjustment. We explore future climate change in the DDR region using a high-resolution regional climate model for Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) forced by the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model - low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR). Two future periods have been simulated using the emission scenario RCP8.5 - for the mid- (2046-2065) and late 21st century (2081-2100) - and compared to a reference period (1986-2005). The RCP8.5 is a "baseline" scenario without any climate mitigation and corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to other scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Our regional WRF implementation uses three online-nested domains with increasing resolution at a downscaling ratio of three. The coarser domain of 81-km resolution covers part of the North Atlantic Ocean and most of the Europe. The innermost 9-km horizontal resolution domain includes the Iberian Peninsula, a portion of Northern Africa and the adjacent part of the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. Our study uses this 9-km resolution domain and focuses on a confined area, which comprises the DDR. Such dynamical downscaling approach gives an advantage to assess climate effects on the DDR region, where the high horizontal resolution allows including effects of the oceanic coastline, local riverbeds and complex topography. The climatology of the DDR region determines the more suitable wine variety

  17. Assessment of the toxic potential of graphene family nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiaoqing; Mei, Nan

    2014-03-01

    Graphene, a single-atom-thick carbon nanosheet, has attracted great interest as a promising nanomaterial for a variety of bioapplications because of its extraordinary properties. However, the potential for widespread human exposure raises safety concerns about graphene and its derivatives, referred to as graphene-family nanomaterials. This review summarizes recent findings on the toxicological effects and the potential toxicity mechanisms of graphene-family nanomaterials in bacteria, mammalian cells, and animal models. Graphene, graphene oxide, and reduced graphene oxide elicit toxic effects both in vitro and in vivo, whereas surface modifications can significantly reduce their toxic interactions with living systems. Standardization of terminology and the fabrication methods of graphene-family nanomaterials are warranted for further investigations designed to decrease their adverse effects and explore their biomedical applications. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  18. Evidence of prehistoric flooding and the potential for future extreme flooding at Coyote Wash, Yucca Mountain, Nye County, Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glancy, P.A.

    1994-09-01

    Coyote Wash, an approximately 0.3-square-mile drainage on the eastern flank of Yucca Mountain, is the potential location for an exploratory shaft to evaluate the suitability of Yucca Mountain for construction of an underground repository for the storage of high-level radioactive wastes. An ongoing investigation is addressing the potential for hazards to the site and surrounding areas from flooding and related fluvial-debris movement. Unconsolidated sediments in and adjacent to the channel of North Fork Coyote Wash were examined for evidence of past floods. Trenches excavated across and along the valley bottom exposed multiple flood deposits, including debris-flow deposits containing boulders as large as 2 to 3 feet in diameter. Most of the alluvial deposition probably occurred during the late Quaternary. Deposits at the base of the deepest trench overlie bedrock and underlie stream terraces adjacent to the channel; these sediments are moderately indurated and probably were deposited during the late Pleistocene. Overlying nonindurated deposits clearly are younger and may be of Holocene age. This evidence of intense flooding during the past indicates that severe flooding and debris movement are possible in the future. Empirical estimates of large floods of the past range from 900 to 2,600 cubic feet per second from the 0.094-square-mile drainage area of North Fork Coyote Wash drainage at two proposed shaft sites. Current knowledge indicates that mixtures of water and debris are likely to flow from North Fork Coyote Wash at rates up to 2,500 cubic feet per second. South Fork Coyote Wash, which has similar basin area and hydraulic characteristics, probably will have concurrent floods of similar magnitudes. The peak flow of the two tributaries probably would combine near the potential sites for the exploratory shaft to produce future flow of water and accompanying debris potentially as large as 5,000 cubic feet per second.

  19. Development of Biomarkers for Assessing In Situ RDX Biodegradation Potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-10

    Feb 2012 – Aug 2016 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT N