WorldWideScience

Sample records for assessing potential future

  1. AL Qaeda, Trends in Terrorism and Future Potentialities: An Assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hoffman, Bruce

    2003-01-01

    This paper assesses current trends in terrorism and future potentialities. It examines first the presumed state of al Qaeda today with particular reference to its likely agenda in a post-Iraq war world...

  2. Assessing Leadership Potential for the Army's Future Force

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Donahue, Scott

    2004-01-01

    A transforming Army requires a corresponding transformation in its leader development and assessment methodology to enable the future force in the volatile uncertain complex and ambiguous contemporary...

  3. Solar energy systems: assessment of present and future potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuehne, H.-M.; Aulich, H.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses the present state and the future potential of solar thermal and photovoltaic (PV) technologies, and examines both the environmental implications of these technologies and the economics which determine their viability in the energy market. Although some significant cost reductions have been achieved, particularly in PV technology, solar conversion technologies are still not generally competitive against conventional fuels, and future cost reductions may be limited. It is argued that fiscal measures will be necessary if solar conversion technologies are to make a significant global impact. (Author)

  4. Current assessment and future potential of the international nuclear market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cassidy, P.R.

    1983-01-01

    This is a study of the current and future situation of the international nuclear market. This paper highlights the projections as seen not only by Bechtel Power Corporation, but also by the international nuclear community. It covers in particular the electric power growth projection; the percentage of probable nuclear power generation; operating services for existing nuclear power plants; and the nuclear fuel cycle. (NEA) [fr

  5. Wind diesel systems - design assessment and future potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Infield, D.G.; Scotney, A.; Lundsager, P.

    1992-01-01

    Diesels are the obvious form. of back-up electricity generation in small to medium sized wind systems. High wind penetrations pose significant technical problems for the system designer, ranging from component sizing to control specification and dynamic stability. A key role is seen for proven...... system models for assessing both dynamic characteristics and overall performance and economics. An introduction is provided to the Wind Diesel Engineering Design Toolkit currently under development (for implementation on PC) by a consortium of leading wind diesel experts, representing six European...

  6. Assessing Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    George H. Mitri; Mireille G. Jazi; David McWethy

    2015-01-01

    The increasing occurrence and extent of large-scale wildfires in the Mediterranean have been linked to extended periods of warm and dry weather. We set out to assess Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) was the primary climate variable used in our evaluation of climate/fire...

  7. ASSESSMENT OF ALLERGENIC POTENTIAL OF GENETICALLY MODIFIED FOODS: AN AGENDA FOR FUTURE RESEARCH

    Science.gov (United States)

    AbstractSpeakers and participants in the Workshop Assessment of the Allergenic Potential of Genetically Modified Foods met in breakout groups to discuss a number of issues including needs for future research. There was agreement that research should move forward quickly in t...

  8. Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Popescu

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, which have fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence, hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB, and it analyses the maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin for a horizon of 30 yr (i.e. year 2040. Current hydropower production is estimated based on historical available data, while future energy production is deduced from the available water in the catchment (estimated based on measured hydrographs of the past years, whereas electricity demand is assessed by correlating existing electricity demand with the estimated population growth and economic development. The maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin were assessed for the mean annual flows of the present hydrological regime (1970–2000 and topographical characteristics of the area.

    Computations were performed using an integrated GIS environment called VAPIDRO-ASTE released by the Research on Energy System (Italy. The residual hydropower potential of the basin is computed considering first that the water supply needs for population, industry and agriculture are served, and then hydropower energy is produced. The calculated hydropower production is found to be approximately half of the estimated electricity demand, which shows that there is a need to look for other sources of energy in the future.

  9. Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popescu, I.; Brandimarte, L.; Perera, M. S. U.; Peviani, M.

    2012-08-01

    La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay), which have fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence, hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB), and it analyses the maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin for a horizon of 30 yr (i.e. year 2040). Current hydropower production is estimated based on historical available data, while future energy production is deduced from the available water in the catchment (estimated based on measured hydrographs of the past years), whereas electricity demand is assessed by correlating existing electricity demand with the estimated population growth and economic development. The maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin were assessed for the mean annual flows of the present hydrological regime (1970-2000) and topographical characteristics of the area. Computations were performed using an integrated GIS environment called VAPIDRO-ASTE released by the Research on Energy System (Italy). The residual hydropower potential of the basin is computed considering first that the water supply needs for population, industry and agriculture are served, and then hydropower energy is produced. The calculated hydropower production is found to be approximately half of the estimated electricity demand, which shows that there is a need to look for other sources of energy in the future.

  10. Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Chunyang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Huang, Qingxu; Zhang, Qiaofeng; Zhang, Da

    2015-11-01

    Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Assessement of rheumatic diseases with computational radiology: current status and future potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peloschek, Philipp; Boesen, Mikael; Donner, Rene

    2009-01-01

    In recent years, several computational image analysis methods to assess disease progression in rheumatic diseases were presented. This review article explains the basics of these methods as well as their potential application in rheumatic disease monitoring, it covers radiography, sonography...

  12. Assessing potential changes of chestnut productivity in Europe under future climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calheiros, T.; Pereira, M. G.; Pinto, J. G.; Caramelo, L.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Dacamara, C. C.

    2012-04-01

    The European chestnut is cultivated for its nuts and wood. Several studies point to the dependency of chestnut productivity on specific soil and climate characteristics. For instance, this species dislikes chalky and poorly drained soils, appreciates sedimentary, siliceous and acidic to neutral soils. Chestnut trees also seems to appreciate annual mean values of sunlight spanning between 2400 and 2600 h, rainfall ranging between 600 and 1500 mm, mean annual temperature between 9 and 13°C, 27°C being the mean of the maximum temperature (Heiniger and Conedera, 1992; Gomes-Laranjo et al.,2008). The amount of heat between May and October must range between 1800°D and 2400°D (Dinis et al., 2011) . In Poland, the growing season is defined as the period of time when the mean 24-h temperature is greater than 5°C (Wilczynski and Podalski, 2007). In Portugal, maximum photosynthetic activity occurs at 24-28°C for adult trees, but exhibits more than 50% of termoinhibition when the air temperature is above 32°C, which is frequent during summer (Gomes- Laranjo et al., 2006, 2008). Recently Pereira et al (2011) identified a set of meteorological variables/parameters with high impact on chestnut productivity. The main purpose of this work is to assess the potential impacts of future climate change on chestnut productivity in Portugal as well as on European chestnut orchards. First, observed data from the European Climate assessment (ECA) and simulations with the Regional Circulation Model (RCM) COSMO-CLM for recent climate conditions are used to assess the ability of the RCM to model the actual meteorological conditions. Then, ensemble projections from the ECHAM5/COSMO-CLM model chain for two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) are used to estimate the values of relevant meteorological variables and parameters und future climate conditions. Simulated values are then compared with those obtained for present climate. Results point to changes in the spatial and temporal

  13. Assessments of Future Maize Yield Potential Changes in the Korean Peninsula Using Multiple Crop Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S. H.; Lim, C. H.; Kim, J.; Lee, W. K.; Kafatos, M.

    2016-12-01

    The Korean Peninsula has unique agricultural environment due to the differences of political and socio-economical system between Republic of Korea (SK, hereafter) and Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea (NK, hereafter). NK has been suffering lack of food supplies caused by natural disasters, land degradation and political failure. The neighboring developed country SK has better agricultural system but very low food self-sufficiency rate. Maize is an important crop in both countries since it is staple food for NK and SK is No. 2 maize importing country in the world after Japan. Therefore, evaluating maize yield potential (Yp) in the two distinct regions is essential to assess food security under climate change and variability. In this study, we utilized multiple process-based crop models, having ability of regional scale assessment, to evaluate maize Yp and assess the model uncertainties -EPIC, GEPIC, DSSAT, and APSIM model that has capability of regional scale expansion (apsimRegions). First we evaluated each crop model for 3 years from 2012 to 2014 using reanalysis data (RDAPS; Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System produced by Korea Meteorological Agency) and observed yield data. Each model performances were compared over the different regions in the Korean Peninsula having different local climate characteristics. To quantify of the major influence of at each climate variables, we also conducted sensitivity test using 20 years of climatology in historical period from 1981 to 2000. Lastly, the multi-crop model ensemble analysis was performed for future period from 2031 to 2050. The required weather variables projected for mid-century were employed from COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) East Asia. The high-resolution climate data were obtained from multiple regional climate models (RCM) driven by multiple climate scenarios projected from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in conjunction with multiple greenhouse gas

  14. Assessement of rheumatic diseases with computational radiology: Current status and future potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peloschek, Philipp; Boesen, Mikael; Donner, Rene; Kubassova, Olga; Birngruber, Erich; Patsch, Janina; Mayerhoefer, Marius; Langs, Georg

    2009-01-01

    In recent years, several computational image analysis methods to assess disease progression in rheumatic diseases were presented. This review article explains the basics of these methods as well as their potential application in rheumatic disease monitoring, it covers radiography, sonography as well as magnetic resonance imaging in quantitative analysis frameworks.

  15. Assessing current and future techno-economic potential of concentrated solar power and photovoltaic electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Köberle, Alexandre C.; Gernaat, David E.H.J.; Vuuren, Detlef P. van

    2015-01-01

    CSP and PV technologies represent energy sources with large potentials. We present cost-supply curves for both technologies using a consistent methodology for 26 regions, based on geoexplicit information on solar radiation, land cover type and slope, exploring individual potential and interdependencies. For present day, both CSP and PV supply curves start at $0.18/kWh, in North Africa, South America, and Australia. Applying accepted learning rates to official capacity targets, we project prices to drop to $0.11/kWh for both technologies by 2050. In an alternative “fast-learning” scenario, generation costs drop to $0.06–0.07/kWh for CSP, and $0.09/kWh for PV. Competition between them for best areas is explored along with sensitivities of their techno-economic potentials to land use restrictions and land cover type. CSP was found to be more competitive in desert sites with highest direct solar radiation. PV was a clear winner in humid tropical regions, and temperate northern hemisphere. Elsewhere, no clear winner emerged, highlighting the importance of competition in assessments of potentials. Our results show there is ample potential globally for both technologies even accounting for land use restrictions, but stronger support for RD&D and higher investments are needed to make CSP and PV cost-competitive with established power technologies by 2050. - Highlights: • A consistent assessment of global potential for CSP and PV, with cost-supply curves for 26 regions. • Combined global CSP and PV potential below US$0.35/kWh estimated at 135,128 TWh per year. • Competition for same land-based solar resource implies that potentials cannot be added. • Attractive areas are MENA, Northern Chile, Australia, China and Southwestern USA. • Costs are projected to go down over time, reaching US$0.06–0.11/KWh for attractive sites in 2050

  16. A Critical Assessment of the Resource Depletion Potential of Current and Future Lithium-Ion Batteries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jens F. Peters

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Resource depletion aspects are repeatedly used as an argument for a shift towards new battery technologies. However, whether serious shortages due to the increased demand for traction and stationary batteries can actually be expected is subject to an ongoing discussion. In order to identify the principal drivers of resource depletion for battery production, we assess different lithium-ion battery types and a new lithium-free battery technology (sodium-ion under this aspect, applying different assessment methodologies. The findings show that very different results are obtained with existing impact assessment methodologies, which hinders clear interpretation. While cobalt, nickel and copper can generally be considered as critical metals, the magnitude of their depletion impacts in comparison with that of other battery materials like lithium, aluminum or manganese differs substantially. A high importance is also found for indirect resource depletion effects caused by the co-extraction of metals from mixed ores. Remarkably, the resource depletion potential per kg of produced battery is driven only partially by the electrode materials and thus depends comparably little on the battery chemistry itself. One of the key drivers for resource depletion seems to be the metals (and co-products in electronic parts required for the battery management system, a component rather independent from the actual battery chemistry. However, when assessing the batteries on a capacity basis (per kWh storage capacity, a high-energy density also turns out to be relevant, since it reduces the mass of battery required for providing one kWh, and thus the associated resource depletion impacts.

  17. A horizon scanning assessment of current and potential future threats to migratory shorebirds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutherland, William J.; Alves, José A.; Amano, Tatsuya; Chang, Charlotte H.; Davidson, Nicholas C.; Finlayson, C. Max; Gill, Jennifer A.; Gill, Robert E.; González, Patricia M.; Gunnarsson, Tómas Grétar; Kleijn, David; Spray, Chris J.; Székely, Tamás; Thompson, Des B.A.

    2012-01-01

    We review the conservation issues facing migratory shorebird populations that breed in temperate regions and use wetlands in the non-breeding season. Shorebirds are excellent model organisms for understanding ecological, behavioural and evolutionary processes and are often used as indicators of wetland health. A global team of experienced shorebird researchers identified 45 issues facing these shorebird populations, and divided them into three categories (natural, current anthropogenic and future issues). The natural issues included megatsunamis, volcanoes and regional climate changes, while current anthropogenic threats encompassed agricultural intensification, conversion of tidal flats and coastal wetlands by human infrastructure developments and eutrophication of coastal systems. Possible future threats to shorebirds include microplastics, new means of recreation and infectious diseases. We suggest that this review process be broadened to other taxa to aid the identification and ranking of current and future conservation actions.

  18. Assessing current and future techno-economic potential of concentrated solar power and photovoltaic electricity generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Köberle, Alexandre C.; Gernaat, David E H J; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2015-01-01

    CSP and PV technologies represent energy sources with large potentials. We present cost-supply curves for both technologies using a consistent methodology for 26 regions, based on geoexplicit information on solar radiation, land cover type and slope, exploring individual potential and

  19. Potential Futures for Information.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ackermann, Mark R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-11-01

    Information is one of the most powerful tools available today. All advances in technology may be used, as David Sarnoff said, for the benefit or harm of society. Information can be used to shape the future by free people, or used to control people by less than benevolent governments, as has been demonstrated since the mid - 1930s, and with growing frequency over the past 50 years. What promised to once set people free and fuel an industrial revolution that might improve the standard of living over most of the world, has also been used to manipulate and enslave entire populations. The future of information is tied to the future of technologies that support the collection of data, processing those data into information and knowledge, and distribution. Technologies supporting the future of information must include technologies that help protect the integrity of data and information, and help to guarantee its discoverability and appropriate availability -- often to the whole of society. This Page Intentionally Left Blank

  20. Assessment of the potential future market in Sweden for hydrogen as an energy carrier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carleson, G.

    Future hydrogen markets for the period 1980-2025 are projected, the probable range of hydrogen production costs for various manufacturing methods is estimated, and expected market shares in competition with alternative energy carriers are evaluated. A general scenario for economic and industrial development in Sweden for the given period was evaluated, showing the average increase in gross national product to become 1.6% per year. Three different energy scenarios were then developed: alternatives were based on nuclear energy, renewable indigenous energy sources, and the present energy situation with free access to imported natural or synthetic fuels. An analysis was made within each scenario of the competitiveness of hydrogen on both the demand and the supply of the following sectors: chemical industry, steel industry, peak power production, residential and commercial heating, and transportation. Costs were calculated for the production, storage and transmission of hydrogen according to technically feasible methods and were compared to those of alternative energy carriers. Health, environmental and societal implications were also considered. The market penetration of hydrogen in each sector was estimated, and the required investment capital was shown to be less than 4% of the national gross investment sum.

  1. Alternative future energy pathways: Assessment of the potential of innovative decentralised energy systems in the UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chmutina, Ksenia; Goodier, Chris I.

    2014-01-01

    In order to meet its 2050 target of 80% carbon emissions reduction, the UK is facing a challenge of restructuring its energy system, possibly by introducing more decentralised energy (DE) systems. Following semi-structured interviews, four exemplar international cases have been critiqued in order to investigate the variety and interrelationship of the drivers and barriers involved during their implementation, and then compared with the barriers and drivers that can potentially affect the implementation of similar projects in the UK context. The impacts of the barriers on the outcomes of these projects were evaluated, and recommendations were presented on overcoming these barriers if replicating similar projects in the UK context. Governance drivers play the most significant role, whereas financial drivers (commonly believed to be crucial), are deemed to play a lesser role. Social, governance and financial barriers rather than technological barriers constitute the central problem areas for the increased adoption of DE. The drivers and barriers experienced in the international cases were similar to those anticipated in the UK. The case studies present a high potential for replication and scaling up in the UK context and demonstrate that the increased implementation of DE systems could also enhance social and governance benefits. - Highlights: • This paper examines four international urban decentralised energy initiatives. • Drivers and barriers are found to be highly diverse but similar to the ones in the UK. • Governance drivers play the most significant role. • Increased implementation of DE systems can enhance social and governance benefits

  2. A strategy for assessing potential future changes in climate, hydrology, and vegetation in the Western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Robert Stephen; Hostetler, Steven W.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Anderson, Katherine H.

    1998-01-01

    Historical and geological data indicate that significant changes can occur in the Earth's climate on time scales ranging from years to millennia. In addition to natural climatic change, climatic changes may occur in the near future due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere that are the result of human activities. International research efforts using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM's) to assess potential climatic conditions under atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of twice the pre-industrial level (a '2 X CO2' atmosphere) conclude that climate would warm on a global basis. However, it is difficult to assess how the projected warmer climatic conditions would be distributed on a regional scale and what the effects of such warming would be on the landscape, especially for temperate mountainous regions such as the Western United States. In this report, we present a strategy to assess the regional sensitivity to global climatic change. The strategy makes use of a hierarchy of models ranging from an AGCM, to a regional climate model, to landscape-scale process models of hydrology and vegetation. A 2 X CO2 global climate simulation conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) GENESIS AGCM on a grid of approximately 4.5o of latitude by 7.5o of longitude was used to drive the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM) over the Western United States on a grid of 60 km by 60 km. The output from the RegCM is used directly (for hydrologic models) or interpolated onto a 15-km grid (for vegetation models) to quantify possible future environmental conditions on a spatial scale relevant to policy makers and land managers.

  3. Accuracy of a Low-Cost Novel Computer-Vision Dynamic Movement Assessment: Potential Limitations and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGroarty, M.; Giblin, S.; Meldrum, D.; Wetterling, F.

    2016-04-01

    The aim of the study was to perform a preliminary validation of a low cost markerless motion capture system (CAPTURE) against an industry gold standard (Vicon). Measurements of knee valgus and flexion during the performance of a countermovement jump (CMJ) between CAPTURE and Vicon were compared. After correction algorithms were applied to the raw CAPTURE data acceptable levels of accuracy and precision were achieved. The knee flexion angle measured for three trials using Capture deviated by -3.8° ± 3° (left) and 1.7° ± 2.8° (right) compared to Vicon. The findings suggest that low-cost markerless motion capture has potential to provide an objective method for assessing lower limb jump and landing mechanics in an applied sports setting. Furthermore, the outcome of the study warrants the need for future research to examine more fully the potential implications of the use of low-cost markerless motion capture in the evaluation of dynamic movement for injury prevention.

  4. Future research needs associated with the assessment of potential human health risks from exposure to toxic ambient air pollutants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möller, Lennart; Schuetzle, Dennis; Autrup, Herman

    1994-01-01

    of identification and quantification of toxics in source emissions and ambient air, atmospheric transport and chemistry, exposure level assessment, the development of improved in vitro bioassays, biomarker development, the development of more accurate epidemiological methodologies, and risk quantification......This paper presents key conclusions and future research needs from a Workshop on the Risk Assessment of Urban Air, Emissions, Exposure, Risk Identification, and Quantification, which was held in Stockholm during June 1992 by 41 participants from 13 countries. Research is recommended in the areas...... techniques. Studies are described that will be necessary to assess and reduce the level of uncertainties associated with each step of the risk assessment process. International collaborative research efforts between industry and government organizations are recommended as the most effective way to carry out...

  5. Screening Assessment of Potential Human-Health Risk from Future Natural-Gas Drilling Near Project Rulison in Western Colorado

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daniels, Jeffrey I.; Chapman, Jenny B.

    2012-01-01

    The Project Rulison underground nuclear test was conducted in 1969 at a depth of 8,400 ft in the Williams Fork Formation of the Piceance Basin, west-central Colorado (Figure 1). The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) is the steward of the site. Their management is guided by data collected from past site investigations and current monitoring, and by the results of calculations of expected behavior of contaminants remaining in the deep subsurface. The purpose of this screening risk assessment is to evaluate possible health risks from current and future exposure to Rulison contaminants so the information can be factored into LM's stewardship decisions. For example, these risk assessment results can inform decisions regarding institutional controls at the site and appropriate monitoring of nearby natural-gas extraction activities. Specifically, the screening risk analysis can provide guidance for setting appropriate action levels for contaminant monitoring to ensure protection of human health.

  6. Screening Assessment of Potential Human-Health Risk from Future Natural-Gas Drilling Near Project Rulison in Western Colorado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniels Jeffrey I.,Chapman Jenny B.

    2012-01-01

    The Project Rulison underground nuclear test was conducted in 1969 at a depth of 8,400 ft in the Williams Fork Formation of the Piceance Basin, west-central Colorado (Figure 1). The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) is the steward of the site. Their management is guided by data collected from past site investigations and current monitoring, and by the results of calculations of expected behavior of contaminants remaining in the deep subsurface. The purpose of this screening risk assessment is to evaluate possible health risks from current and future exposure to Rulison contaminants so the information can be factored into LM's stewardship decisions. For example, these risk assessment results can inform decisions regarding institutional controls at the site and appropriate monitoring of nearby natural-gas extraction activities. Specifically, the screening risk analysis can provide guidance for setting appropriate action levels for contaminant monitoring to ensure protection of human health.

  7. Assessment of the present and future offshore wind power potential: a case study in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lizuma, Lita; Avotniece, Zanita; Rupainis, Sergejs; Teilans, Artis

    2013-01-01

    Offshore wind energy development promises to be a significant domestic renewable energy source in Latvia. The reliable prediction of present and future wind resources at offshore sites is crucial for planning and selecting the location for wind farms. The overall goal of this paper is the assessment of offshore wind power potential in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast as well as the identification of a trend in the future wind energy potential for the study territory. The regional climate model CLM and High Resolution Limited Area Model (Hirlam) simulations were used to obtain the wind climatology data for the study area. The results indicated that offshore wind energy is promising for expanding the national electricity generation and will continue to be a stable resource for electricity generation in the region over the 21st century.

  8. Searching for native tree species and respective potential biomarkers for future assessment of pollution effects on the highly diverse Atlantic Forest in SE-Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domingos, Marisa; Bulbovas, Patricia; Camargo, Carla Z.S.; Aguiar-Silva, Cristiane; Brandão, Solange E.; Dafré-Martinelli, Marcelle; Dias, Ana Paula L.; Engela, Marcela R.G.S.; Gagliano, Janayne; Moura, Barbara B.; Alves, Edenise S.; Rinaldi, Mirian C.S.; Gomes, Eduardo P.C.; Furlan, Claudia M.; Figueiredo, Ana Maria G.

    2015-01-01

    This study summarizes the first effort to search for bioindicator tree species and respective potential biomarkers for future assessment of potential mixed pollution effects on the highly diverse Atlantic Forest in SE-Brazil. Leaves of the three most abundant species inventoried in a phytosociological survey (Croton floribundus, Piptadenia gonoacantha and Astronium graveolens) were collected in four forest remnants during winter and summer (2012). Their potential bioindicator attributes were highlighted using a screening of morphological, chemical and biochemical markers. The leaf surface structure and/or epicuticular wax composition pointed the accumulator properties of C. floribundus and P. gonoacantha. C. floribundus is a candidate for assessing potential accumulation of Cu, Cd, Mn, Ni, S and Zn. P. gonoacantha is a candidate to monitor polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Increased levels of secondary metabolites and decreased antioxidant capacity in leaves of A. graveolens may support its value as a bioindicator for oxidative pollutants by visible dark stipplings. - Highlights: • We searched for tree species from Atlantic Forest for future air pollution monitoring in Brazil. • Croton floribundus, Astronium graveolens and Piptadenia gonoacantha were possible bioindicators. • P. gonoachanta was a potential bioindicator of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. • C. floribundus was a potential bioindicator of heavy metals and sulfur. • A. graveolens may be used for monitoring oxidative pollutants, due to its biochemical leaf traits. - Inherent characteristics of the most abundant native tree species were potential biomarkers for assessing pollution effects on the highly diverse Atlantic Forest in SE-Brazil

  9. Future research needs associated with the assessment of potential human health risks from exposure to toxic ambient air pollutants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möller, Lennart; Schuetzle, Dennis; Autrup, Herman

    1994-01-01

    of identification and quantification of toxics in source emissions and ambient air, atmospheric transport and chemistry, exposure level assessment, the development of improved in vitro bioassays, biomarker development, the development of more accurate epidemiological methodologies, and risk quantification...... techniques. Studies are described that will be necessary to assess and reduce the level of uncertainties associated with each step of the risk assessment process. International collaborative research efforts between industry and government organizations are recommended as the most effective way to carry out...

  10. Assessing the future of energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moncomble, J.E.

    2015-01-01

    The World Energy Council has designed 2 tools named Jazz and Symphonie that allow the assessment of the potential impacts of energy choices on the future in terms of climate warming, investments, energy mix,... The Jazz roadmap aims at energy equity which means individual access to energy at a reasonable cost while the Symphonie roadmap focuses on environmental issues through appropriate practice and coordinated international policies. Both tools are integrated it means that they describe a whole world by most of its aspects: population, GDP per capita, number of cars by inhabitant, economic growth... A basic application of both tools shows that in 2050 the nuclear power will have increased (compared to today's level) but the share of nuclear power in the energy mix will have decreased for Jazz and increased for Symphonie. (A.C.)

  11. Miscellaneous conditions and future potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berquist, T.H.; Ehman, R.L.; Richardson, M.L.; Helms, C.A.

    1987-01-01

    The previous chapters have discussed basic principles and the types of musculoskeletal pathology that have been most extensively studied with magnetic resonance (MR) techniques. MR has also demonstrated significant potential in other areas, but experience is more limited. Despite this limited experience, the potential application of MR imaging in these areas is discussed in this paper

  12. Positive deviance as a novel tool in malaria control and elimination: methodology, qualitative assessment and future potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafique, Muhammad; Edwards, Hannah M; De Beyl, Celine Zegers; Thavrin, Bou Kheng; Min, Myo; Roca-Feltrer, Arantxa

    2016-02-16

    Positive deviance (PD) is an asset-based, community-driven approach to behaviour change that has successfully been applied to address many health and social problems. It is yet to have been assessed for malaria control but may represent a promising tool for malaria elimination given its suitability in targeting small and remote population groups, apparent sustainability and ability to instil a high amount of community mobilisation. Here, the PD methodology as applied to malaria is explained, with focus upon and qualitative assessment of a proof of concept study in Cambodia. Three villages in Battambang, northwestern Cambodia were selected for the intervention, with an estimated population of 5036 including both residents and migrant workers. In August 2010, field teams conducted a 1 week PD process to sensitise and mobilise the community, establish normative behaviours in relation to malaria control and prevention, identify positive deviant behaviours from within the community, and identify PD volunteers. Until March 2011, PD volunteers were supported by field teams via monthly meetings to conduct activities in their respective communities to increase practice of PD behaviours. In February 2012, 1 year following the end of external support, evaluative interviews were conducted with community members to qualitatively assess community acceptance and interpretation of the PD intervention, perceived behaviour changes, and perceived positive outcomes. Qualitative data from focus group discussions and in-depth interviews showed that the PD approach was well-accepted into the communities and created a strong sense of community empowerment. Positive behaviour change was linked to the PD intervention, including greater usage of nets by forest goers, and use of public health facilities for malaria diagnosis and treatment. One year following the end of external assistance, PD volunteers were still conducting activities in their respective communities. PD offers a promising

  13. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  14. Assessment of the potential respiratory hazard of volcanic ash from future Icelandic eruptions: A study of archived basaltic to rhyolitic ash samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damby, David; Horwell, Claire J.; Larsen, Gudrun; Thordarson, Thorvaldur; Tomatis, Maura; Fubini, Bice; Donaldson, Ken

    2017-01-01

    BackgroundThe eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Grímsvötn (2011), Iceland, triggered immediate, international consideration of the respiratory health hazard of inhaling volcanic ash, and prompted the need to estimate the potential hazard posed by future eruptions of Iceland’s volcanoes to Icelandic and Northern European populations. MethodsA physicochemical characterization and toxicological assessment was conducted on a suite of archived ash samples spanning the spectrum of past eruptions (basaltic to rhyolitic magmatic composition) of Icelandic volcanoes following a protocol specifically designed by the International Volcanic Health Hazard Network. ResultsIcelandic ash can be of a respirable size (up to 11.3 vol.% < 4 μm), but the samples did not display physicochemical characteristics of pathogenic particulate in terms of composition or morphology. Ash particles were generally angular, being composed of fragmented glass and crystals. Few fiber-like particles were observed, but those present comprised glass or sodium oxides, and are not related to pathogenic natural fibers, like asbestos or fibrous zeolites, thereby limiting concern of associated respiratory diseases. None of the samples contained cristobalite or tridymite, and only one sample contained quartz, minerals of interest due to the potential to cause silicosis. Sample surface areas are low, ranging from 0.4 to 1.6 m2 g−1, which aligns with analyses on ash from other eruptions worldwide. All samples generated a low level of hydroxyl radicals (HO•), a measure of surface reactivity, through the iron-catalyzed Fenton reaction compared to concurrently analyzed comparative samples. However, radical generation increased after ‘refreshing’ sample surfaces, indicating that newly erupted samples may display higher reactivity. A composition-dependent range of available surface iron was measured after a 7-day incubation, from 22.5 to 315.7 μmol m−2, with mafic samples releasing more iron

  15. Assessment of the potential respiratory hazard of volcanic ash from future Icelandic eruptions: a study of archived basaltic to rhyolitic ash samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damby, David E; Horwell, Claire J; Larsen, Gudrun; Thordarson, Thorvaldur; Tomatis, Maura; Fubini, Bice; Donaldson, Ken

    2017-09-11

    The eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Grímsvötn (2011), Iceland, triggered immediate, international consideration of the respiratory health hazard of inhaling volcanic ash, and prompted the need to estimate the potential hazard posed by future eruptions of Iceland's volcanoes to Icelandic and Northern European populations. A physicochemical characterization and toxicological assessment was conducted on a suite of archived ash samples spanning the spectrum of past eruptions (basaltic to rhyolitic magmatic composition) of Icelandic volcanoes following a protocol specifically designed by the International Volcanic Health Hazard Network. Icelandic ash can be of a respirable size (up to 11.3 vol.% fiber-like particles were observed, but those present comprised glass or sodium oxides, and are not related to pathogenic natural fibers, like asbestos or fibrous zeolites, thereby limiting concern of associated respiratory diseases. None of the samples contained cristobalite or tridymite, and only one sample contained quartz, minerals of interest due to the potential to cause silicosis. Sample surface areas are low, ranging from 0.4 to 1.6 m 2  g -1 , which aligns with analyses on ash from other eruptions worldwide. All samples generated a low level of hydroxyl radicals (HO • ), a measure of surface reactivity, through the iron-catalyzed Fenton reaction compared to concurrently analyzed comparative samples. However, radical generation increased after 'refreshing' sample surfaces, indicating that newly erupted samples may display higher reactivity. A composition-dependent range of available surface iron was measured after a 7-day incubation, from 22.5 to 315.7 μmol m -2 , with mafic samples releasing more iron than silicic samples. All samples were non-reactive in a test of red blood cell-membrane damage. The primary particle-specific concern is the potential for future eruptions of Iceland's volcanoes to generate fine, respirable material and, thus, to

  16. Assessing offshore wind potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adelaja, Adesoji; McKeown, Charles; Calnin, Benjamin; Hailu, Yohannes

    2012-01-01

    Quantifying wind potential is a pivotal initial step in developing and articulating a state’s policies and strategies for offshore wind industry development. This is particularly important in the Great Lakes States where lessons from other offshore environments are not directly applicable. This paper presents the framework developed for conducting a preliminary assessment of offshore wind potential. Information on lake bathymetry and wind resources were combined in simulating alternative scenarios of technically feasible turbine construction depths and distance concerns by stakeholders. These yielded estimates of developable offshore wind areas and potential power generation. While concerns about the visibility of turbines from shore reduce the power that can be generated, engineering solutions that increase the depths at which turbines can be sited increase such potential power output. This paper discusses the costs associated with technical limitations on depth and the social costs related to public sentiments about distance from the shoreline, as well as the possible tradeoffs. The results point to a very large untapped energy resource in the Michigan’s Great Lakes, large enough to prompt policy action from the state government. - Highlights: ▶ We build a theoretical framework for modeling offshore wind power production. ▶ Illustration of the impact of technology and social limitations on offshore wind energy development. ▶ Geospatial modeling of the offshore wind potential of the Great Lakes.

  17. Potential future waste-to-energy systems

    OpenAIRE

    Thorin, Eva; Guziana, Bozena; Song, Han; Jääskeläinen, Ari; Szpadt, Ryszard; Vasilic, Dejan; Ahrens, Thorsten; Anne, Olga; Lõõnik, Jaan

    2012-01-01

    This report discusses potential future systems for waste-to-energy production in the Baltic Sea Region, and especially for the project REMOWE partner regions, the County of Västmanland in Sweden, Northern Savo in Finland, Lower Silesia in Poland, western part of Lithuania and Estonia. The waste-to-energy systems planned for in the partner regions are combustion of municipal solid waste (MSW) and solid recovered fuels from household and industry as well as anaerobic digestion of sewage sludge ...

  18. Risk assessment - The future trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    Many organizations today are faced with cleaning a site or facility, selecting appropriate remedial alternatives, or explaining the potential effects on human health and the environment caused by the releases of toxic compounds into the air, soil, and water, The use of risk assessment (RA) as a management tool is increasing because it offers an integrated approach to the analysis of toxicological, geological, physio-chemical, meteorological, statistical, and biological parameters that must be evaluated in the assessment of potential impacts to human health. The regulatory atmosphere in the 1990s is leaning toward the adoption of further laws requiring the completion of the RA process. Any industry involved in submitting permit applications to Air Quality Management Districts or complying with California's Proposition 65 and AB 2588 will be required to prepare RAs. Several guidance documents are available that support the RA process including the California Site Mitigation Decision Tree Manual published by the State Department of Health Services (DHS), which bases its approach on developing cleanup objectives (Applied Action Levels) on RA. This presentation focuses on the applications RA can have to the petroleum industry and the kinds of data that each case should develop to make maximum use of the RA process

  19. Projecting the range of potential future climate change as an aid in the assessment of the effectiveness of the Hanford Site Permanent Isolation Barrier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petersen, K.L.

    1993-10-01

    The Hanford Site Permanent Isolation Barrier Development Program was organized to develop an in-place disposal capability for low-level nuclear waste for the US Department of Energy at the Hanford Site in south-eastern Washington. Layered earthen and engineered barriers are being developed by Westinghouse Hanford Company and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory that will function in what is presently a semiarid environment (annual precipitation 150 mm) for at least 1,000 yr by limiting the infiltration of water through the waste. The Long-Term Climate Change Task is one of several key barrier tasks. Based on the recommendation of a panel of internationally recognized climate and modeling experts, climatic data for this task is being acquired in a step-wise and multi-disciplinary manner. The specific research strategy includes literature review and specialized studies to obtain pollen-derived climatic reconstruction, documented historic weather patterns, and Global Circulation Model output of potential future climate changes related to both the greenhouse effect and the cycling into the next ice age. The specific goals of the task are to: (1) obtain defensible probabilistic projections of the long-term climate variability in the Hanford Site region at many different time scales into the future, (2) develop several test case climate scenarios that bracket the range of potential future climate, and (3) use the climate scenarios both to test and to model protective barrier performance.

  20. The future of FRMAC assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laiche, Thomas P.

    2010-01-01

    FRMAC was born out of circumstances 25 years ago when 17 federal agencies descended on the states with good intention during the Three-Mile Island nuclear power plant incident. At that time it quickly became evident that a better way was needed to support state and local governments in their time of emergency and recovery process. FRMAC's single voice of Federal support coordinates the multiple agencies that respond to a radiological event. Over the years, FRMAC has exercised, evaluated, and honed its ability to quickly respond to the needs of our communities. As the times have changed, FRMAC has expanded its focus from nuclear power plant incidents, to threats of a terrorist radiological dispersal device (RDD), to the unthinkable - an Improvised nuclear device (IND). And just as having the right tools are part of any trade, FRMAC's tool set has and is evolving to meet contemporary challenges - not just to improve the time it takes to collect data and assess the situation, but to provide a quality and comprehensive product that supports a stressed decision maker, responsible for the protection of the public. Innovations in the movement of data and information have changed our everyday lives. So too, FRMAC is capitalizing on industry innovations to improve the flow of information: from the early predictive models, to streamlining the process of getting data out of the field; to improving the time it takes to get assessed products in to the hands of the decision makers. FRMAC is focusing on the future through the digital age of electronic data processing. Public protective action and dose avoidance is the challenge.

  1. RANGELAND SEQUESTRATION POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee Spangler; George F. Vance; Gerald E. Schuman; Justin D. Derner

    2012-03-31

    Rangelands occupy approximately half of the world's land area and store greater than 10% of the terrestrial biomass carbon and up to 30% of the global soil organic carbon. Although soil carbon sequestration rates are generally low on rangelands in comparison to croplands, increases in terrestrial carbon in rangelands resulting from management can account for significant carbon sequestration given the magnitude of this land resource. Despite the significance rangelands can play in carbon sequestration, our understanding remains limited. Researchers conducted a literature review to identify sustainably management practices that conserve existing rangeland carbon pools, as well as increase or restore carbon sequestration potentials for this type of ecosystem. The research team also reviewed the impact of grazing management on rangeland carbon dynamics, which are not well understood due to heterogeneity in grassland types. The literature review on the impact of grazing showed a wide variation of results, ranging from positive to negative to no response. On further review, the intensity of grazing appears to be a major factor in controlling rangeland soil organic carbon dynamics. In 2003, researchers conducted field sampling to assess the effect of several drought years during the period 1993-2002. Results suggested that drought can significantly impact rangeland soil organic carbon (SOC) levels, and therefore, carbon sequestration. Resampling was conducted in 2006; results again suggested that climatic conditions may have overridden management effects on SOC due to the ecological lag of the severe drought of 2002. Analysis of grazing practices during this research effort suggested that there are beneficial effects of light grazing compared to heavy grazing and non-grazing with respect to increased SOC and nitrogen contents. In general, carbon storage in rangelands also increases with increased precipitation, although researchers identified threshold levels of

  2. Neutron sources: Present practice and future potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cierjacks, S.; Smith, A.B.

    1988-01-01

    The present capability and future potential of accelerator-based monoenergetic and white neutron sources are outlined in the context of fundamental and applied neutron-nuclear research. The neutron energy range extends from thermal to 500 MeV, and the time domain from steady-state to pico-second pulsed sources. Accelerator technology is summarized, including the production of intense light-ion, heavy-ion and electron beams. Target capabilities are discussed with attention to neutron-producing efficiency and power-handling capabilities. The status of underlying neutron-producing reactions is summarized. The present and future use of neutron sources in: fundamental neutron-nuclear research, nuclear data acquisition, materials damage studies, engineering tests, and biomedical applications are discussed. Emphasis is given to current status, near-term advances well within current technology, and to long-range projections. 90 refs., 4 figs

  3. Estimation of potential evapotranspiration from extraterrestrial radiation, air temperature and humidity to assess future climate change effects on the vegetation of the Northern Great Plains, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominique M.; Symstad, Amy J.; Ferschweiler, Ken; Hobbins, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The potential evapotranspiration (PET) that would occur with unlimited plant access to water is a central driver of simulated plant growth in many ecological models. PET is influenced by solar and longwave radiation, temperature, wind speed, and humidity, but it is often modeled as a function of temperature alone. This approach can cause biases in projections of future climate impacts in part because it confounds the effects of warming due to increased greenhouse gases with that which would be caused by increased radiation from the sun. We developed an algorithm for linking PET to extraterrestrial solar radiation (incoming top-of atmosphere solar radiation), as well as temperature and atmospheric water vapor pressure, and incorporated this algorithm into the dynamic global vegetation model MC1. We tested the new algorithm for the Northern Great Plains, USA, whose remaining grasslands are threatened by continuing woody encroachment. Both the new and the standard temperature-dependent MC1 algorithm adequately simulated current PET, as compared to the more rigorous PenPan model of Rotstayn et al. (2006). However, compared to the standard algorithm, the new algorithm projected a much more gradual increase in PET over the 21st century for three contrasting future climates. This difference led to lower simulated drought effects and hence greater woody encroachment with the new algorithm, illustrating the importance of more rigorous calculations of PET in ecological models dealing with climate change.

  4. Potential future land use threats to California's protected areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Tamara Sue; Sleeter, Benjamin Michael; Davis, Adam Wilkinson

    2015-01-01

    Increasing pressures from land use coupled with future changes in climate will present unique challenges for California’s protected areas. We assessed the potential for future land use conversion on land surrounding existing protected areas in California’s twelve ecoregions, utilizing annual, spatially explicit (250 m) scenario projections of land use for 2006–2100 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios to examine future changes in development, agriculture, and logging. We calculated a conversion threat index (CTI) for each unprotected pixel, combining land use conversion potential with proximity to protected area boundaries, in order to identify ecoregions and protected areas at greatest potential risk of proximal land conversion. Our results indicate that California’s Coast Range ecoregion had the highest CTI with competition for extractive logging placing the greatest demand on land in close proximity to existing protected areas. For more permanent land use conversions into agriculture and developed uses, our CTI results indicate that protected areas in the Central California Valley and Oak Woodlands are most vulnerable. Overall, the Eastern Cascades, Central California Valley, and Oak Woodlands ecoregions had the lowest areal percent of protected lands and highest conversion threat values. With limited resources and time, rapid, landscape-level analysis of potential land use threats can help quickly identify areas with higher conversion probability of future land use and potential changes to both habitat and potential ecosystem reserves. Given the broad range of future uncertainties, LULC projections are a useful tool allowing land managers to visualize alternative landscape futures, improve planning, and optimize management practices.

  5. The Future Potential of Internet of Things

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aelita Skaržauskienė

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To define the Internet of things and to analyze it as a background for the internet of services.Design/methodology/approach: The article discusses potential possibilities and problematic issues concerning the Internet of things (IoT and Internet of services (IoS. The debates concerning IoT and its possible application fields have continued for more than ten years. The technological background is there and the fields of application are broad. However, there is still a lack of understanding about the possible benefits that technology could give to various bodies if applied correctly. This article is based on comparison and analysis of scientific articles, research papers and case studies related to the potential for IoT and its implementation in IoS.Theoretical findings: IoT is a logical evolutionary step for the internet. Despite the technological background, the concept of objects which are aware of their surroundings, allow to manipulate them by defining different rule patterns and ensuring interaction possibilities with other objects or human beings. The necessity for web-based services is increasing along with the technological gadgets which support them. Applying things, which are connected in a network, could revolutionize many industry and service sectors and create new service provision and administration methods based on information technology. However, there are many problematic issues and research challenges related to the IoT. Few of the most significant are related to standardization of technology, legal regulation and ethical aspects concerning the IoT technology.Research limitations/implications: The IoT is a popular trend promoted by the business sector and governmental bodies. There are few comprehensive studies and projects which talk about the benefits that business and society could gain from the IoT. There is a lot less information about the possible risk and problematic aspects, and a lack of agreements between the

  6. Application of the coastal generalized ecosystem model (CGEM) to assess the impacts of a potential future climate scenario on northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mechanistic hypoxia models for the northern Gulf of Mexico are being used to guide policy goals for Mississippi River nutrient loading reductions. However, to date, these models have not examined the effects of both nutrient loads and future climate. Here, we simulate a future c...

  7. The Future Potential of Internet of Things

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aelita Skaržauskienė

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To define the Internet of things and to analyze it as a background for the internet of services. Design/methodology/approach: The article discusses potential possibilities and problematic issues concerning the Internet of things (IoT and Internet of services (IoS. The debates concerning IoT and its possible application fields have continued for more than ten years. The technological background is there and the fields of application are broad. However, there is still a lack of understanding about the possible benefits that technology could give to various bodies if applied correctly. This article is based on comparison and analysis of scientific articles, research papers and case studies related to the potential for IoT and its implementation in IoS. Theoretical findings: IoT is a logical evolutionary step for the internet. Despite the technological background, the concept of objects which are aware of their surroundings, allow to manipulate them by defining different rule patterns and ensuring interaction possibilities with other objects or human beings. The necessity for web-based services is increasing along with the technological gadgets which support them. Applying things, which are connected in a network, could revolutionize many industry and service sectors and create new service provision and administration methods based on information technology. However, there are many problematic issues and research challenges related to the IoT. Few of the most significant are related to standardization of technology, legal regulation and ethical aspects concerning the IoT technology. Research limitations/implications: The IoT is a popular trend promoted by the business sector and governmental bodies. There are few comprehensive studies and projects which talk about the benefits that business and society could gain from the IoT. There is a lot less information about the possible risk and problematic aspects, and a lack of agreements between

  8. Cord Blood Banking for Potential Future Transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shearer, William T; Lubin, Bertram H; Cairo, Mitchell S; Notarangelo, Luigi D

    2017-11-01

    This policy statement is intended to provide information to guide pediatricians, obstetricians, and other medical specialists and health care providers in responding to parents' questions about cord blood donation and banking as well as the types (public versus private) and quality of cord blood banks. Cord blood is an excellent source of stem cells for hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in children with some fatal diseases. Cord blood transplantation offers another method of definitive therapy for infants, children, and adults with certain hematologic malignancies, hemoglobinopathies, severe forms of T-lymphocyte and other immunodeficiencies, and metabolic diseases. The development of universal screening for severe immunodeficiency assay in a growing number of states is likely to increase the number of cord blood transplants. Both public and private cord blood banks worldwide hold hundreds of thousands of cord blood units designated for the treatment of fatal or debilitating illnesses. The procurement, characterization, and cryopreservation of cord blood is free for families who choose public banking. However, the family cost for private banking is significant and not covered by insurance, and the unit may never be used. Quality-assessment reviews by several national and international accrediting bodies show private cord blood banks to be underused for treatment, less regulated for quality control, and more expensive for the family than public cord blood banks. There is an unquestionable need to study the use of cord blood banking to make new and important alternative means of reconstituting the hematopoietic blood system in patients with malignancies and blood disorders and possibly regenerating tissue systems in the future. Recommendations regarding appropriate ethical and operational standards (including informed consent policies, financial disclosures, and conflict-of-interest policies) are provided for physicians, institutions, and organizations that

  9. Preparing Potential Senior Army Leaders for the Future: An Assessment of Leader Development Efforts in the Post-Cold War Era

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Johnson, David

    2002-01-01

    ... that could prove problematic in future missions. The paper then describes the current institutional training most relevant to developing competencies for such missions and notes its limited attention to the nondoctrinal, other-than-war missions...

  10. Palaeohydrogeological modelling for potential future repository sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    In order to consider the future behaviour of a groundwater system over time scales of relevance to repository safety assessment, it is necessary to develop an understanding of how the groundwater system has changed over time. This can be done through studying the palaeohydrogeology of the groundwater system. The EQUIP project (Evidence from Quaternary Infills for Palaeohydrogeology) set out to develop and evaluate methodologies for obtaining palaeohydrogeological information from fracture infill minerals formed under past groundwater conditions. EQUIP was a collaborative project funded jointly by the European Commission and, in the UK, by the Environment Agency and UK Nirex Limited. The project also involved partners in Finland, France, Spain and Sweden. The fracture infill material chosen for this investigation was calcite, because its reactions in low temperature groundwater environments are fairly well understood and it is fairly ubiquitous in both crystalline and sedimentary rocks. In addition, geochemical modelling suggests that plausible time scales for growth of individual calcite crystals are in the range 10 to 10,000 years, so they may accumulate a record of groundwater evolution over periods of significant climate change. The project was based on four sites, having different climate histories and geological conditions, at which drillcore samples of the deep crystalline rocks, accompanied by hydrogeological and hydrochemical data for the current groundwater conditions, were already available. The principal study sites were Olkiluoto in Finland, Aspo/Laxemar in Sweden, Sellafield in the UK and Vienne in France. The results of the study focus on the morphology and bulk compositions of calcite, compositional zoning of calcite crystals and compositions of fluid inclusions. There are systematic variations in bulk compositions with depth and also in discrete compositional fluctuations (or zones) in individual calcite crystals. These are inferred to reflect

  11. Assessment on the rates and potentials of soil organic carbon sequestration in agricultural lands in Japan using a process-based model and spatially explicit land-use change inventories - Part 2: Future potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yagasaki, Y.; Shirato, Y.

    2014-08-01

    Future potentials of the sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural lands in Japan were estimated using a simulation system we recently developed to simulate SOC stock change at country-scale under varying land-use change, climate, soil, and agricultural practices, in a spatially explicit manner. Simulation was run from 1970 to 2006 with historical inventories, and subsequently to 2020 with future scenarios of agricultural activity comprised of various agricultural policy targets advocated by the Japanese government. Furthermore, the simulation was run subsequently until 2100 while forcing no temporal changes in land-use and agricultural activity to investigate duration and course of SOC stock change at country scale. A scenario with an increased rate of organic carbon input to agricultural fields by intensified crop rotation in combination with the suppression of conversion of agricultural lands to other land-use types was found to have a greater reduction of CO2 emission by enhanced soil carbon sequestration, but only under a circumstance in which the converted agricultural lands will become settlements that were considered to have a relatively lower rate of organic carbon input. The size of relative reduction of CO2 emission in this scenario was comparable to that in another contrasting scenario (business-as-usual scenario of agricultural activity) in which a relatively lower rate of organic matter input to agricultural fields was assumed in combination with an increased rate of conversion of the agricultural fields to unmanaged grasslands through abandonment. Our simulation experiment clearly demonstrated that net-net-based accounting on SOC stock change, defined as the differences between the emissions and removals during the commitment period and the emissions and removals during a previous period (base year or base period of Kyoto Protocol), can be largely influenced by variations in future climate. Whereas baseline-based accounting, defined

  12. DEVELOPING STANDARDS FOR ASSESSING ENVIRONMENTAL CHEMICAL, PHYSICAL, AND BIOLOGICAL STRESSORS THROUGH ASTM COMMITTEE E47: A PAST FOUNDATION OF PROVEN STANDARDS, A FUTURE OF GREAT POTENTIAL AND OPPORTUNITY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Development of standards associated with assessing the bioavailability of contaminants in sediment will be used as a case study for how standards have been developed through Committee E47. In 1987, Committee E47 established Subcommittee E47.03 on Sediment Assessment and Toxicity....

  13. Integrated assessment of future potential global change scenarios and their hydrological impacts in coastal aquifers – a new tool to analyse management alternatives in the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Pulido-Velazquez

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Any change in the components of the water balance in a coastal aquifer, whether natural or anthropogenic, can alter the freshwater–salt water equilibrium. In this sense climate change (CC and land use and land cover (LULC change might significantly influence the availability of groundwater resources in the future. These coastal systems demand an integrated analysis of quantity and quality issues to obtain an appropriate assessment of hydrological impacts using density-dependent flow solutions. The aim of this work is to perform an integrated analysis of future potential global change (GC scenarios and their hydrological impacts in a coastal aquifer, the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer. It is a Mediterranean aquifer that extends over 75 km2 in which important historical LULC changes have been produced and are planned for the future. Future CC scenarios will be defined by using an equi-feasible and non-feasible ensemble of projections based on the results of a multi-criteria analysis of the series generated from several regional climatic models with different downscaling approaches. The hydrological impacts of these CC scenarios combined with future LULC scenarios will be assessed with a chain of models defined by a sequential coupling of rainfall-recharge models, crop irrigation requirements and irrigation return models (for the aquifer and its neighbours that feed it, and a density-dependent aquifer approach. This chain of models, calibrated using the available historical data, allow testing of the conceptual approximation of the aquifer behaviour. They are also fed with series representatives of potential global change scenarios in order to perform a sensitivity analysis regarding future scenarios of rainfall recharge, lateral flows coming from the hydraulically connected neighbouring aquifer, agricultural recharge (taking into account expected future LULC changes and sea level rise (SLR. The proposed analysis is valuable for

  14. Bioactive glasses potential biomaterials for future therapy

    CERN Document Server

    Kaur, Gurbinder

    2017-01-01

    This book describes the history, origin and basic characteristics of bioactive materials. It includes a chapter dedicated to hydroxyapatite mineral, its formation and its bioactive properties. The authors address how cytotoxicity is a determining step for bioactivity. Applications of bioactive materials in the contexts of tissue regeneration, bone regeneration and cancer therapy are also covered. Silicate, metallic and mesoporous glasses are described, as well as the challenges and future prospects of research in this field.

  15. Combining emperical and theory-based land use modelling approaches to assess future availability of land and economic potential for sustainable biofuel production: Argentina as a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diogo, V.; van der Hilst, Floortje; van Eijck, Janske; Faaij, André; Verstegen, Judith; Hilbert, J.; Carballo, S.; Volante, J.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, a land-use modelling framework is presented combining empirical and theory-based modelling approaches to determine economic potential of biofuel production avoiding indirect land-use changes (iLUC) resulting from land competition with other functions. The empirical approach explores

  16. Assessment of triton potential energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Friar, J.L.; Payne, G.L.

    1995-01-01

    An assessment is made of the dominant features contributing to the triton potential energy, with the objective of understanding qualitatively their origins and sensitivities. Relativistic effects, short-range repulsion, and OPEP dominance are discussed. A determination of the importance of various regions of nucleon-nucleon separation is made numerically. (author)

  17. Safety assessments for potential exposures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunn, D.I.

    2012-04-01

    Safety Assessment of potential exposures have been carried out in major practices, namely: industrial radiography, gamma irradiators and electron accelerators used in industry and research, and radiotherapy. This paper focuses on reviewing safety assessment methodologies and using developed software to analyse radiological accidents, also review, and discuss these past accidents.The primary objective of the assessment is to assess the adequacy of planned or existing measures for protection and safety and to identify any additional measures that should be put in place. As such, both routine use of the source and the probability and magnitude of potential exposures arising from accidents or incidents should be considered. Where the assessment indicates that there is a realistic possibility of an accident affecting workers or members of the public or having consequences for the environment, the registrant or licensee should prepare a suitable emergency plan. A safety assessment for normal operation addresses all the conditions under which the radiation source operates as expected, including all phases of the lifetime of the source. Due account needs to be taken of the different factors and conditions that will apply during non-operational phases, such as installation, commissioning and maintenance. (author)

  18. Future Hard Disk Storage: Limits & Potential Solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambeth, David N.

    2000-03-01

    For several years the hard disk drive technology pace has raced along at 60-100products this year and laboratory demonstrations approaching what has been estimated as a physical thermal stability limit of around 40 Gbit/in2. For sometime now the data storage industry has recogniz d that doing business as usually will not be viable for long and so both incremental evolutionary and revolutionary technologies are being explored. While new recording head materials or thermal recording techniques may allow higher coercivity materials to be recorded upon, and while high sensitivity spin transport transducer technology may provide sufficient signals to extend beyond the 100 Gigabit/in2 regime, conventional isotropic longitudinal media will show large data retention problems at less than 1/2 of this value. We have recently developed a simple model which indicates that while thermal instability issues may appear at different areal densities, they are non-discriminatory as to the magnetic recording modality: longitudinal, perpendicular, magnetooptic, near field, etc. The model indicates that a strong orientation of the media tends to abate the onset of the thermal limit. Hence, for the past few years we have taken an approach of controlled growth of the microstructure of thin film media. This knowledge has lead us to believe that epitaxial growth of multiple thin film layers on single crystalline Si may provide a pathway to nearly perfect crystallites of various, highly oriented, thin film textures. Here we provide an overview of the recording system media challenges, which are useful for the development of a future media design philosophy and then discuss materials issues and processing techniques for multi-layered thin film material structures which may be used to achieve media structures which can easy exceed the limits predicted for isotropic media.

  19. Stable isotope enrichment: Current and future potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tracy, J.G.; Aaron, W.S.

    1992-01-01

    Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) operates the Isotope Enrichment Facility for the purpose of providing enriched stable isotopes, selected radioactive isotopes (including the actinides), and isotope-related materials and services for use in various research applications. ORNL is responsible for isotope enrichment and the distribution of approximately 225 nongaseous stable isotopes from 50 multi-isotopic elements. Many enriched isotope products are of prime importance in the fabrication of nuclear targets and the subsequent production of special radionuclides. State-of-the-art techniques to achieve special isotopic, chemical, and physical requirements are performed at ORNL This report describes the status and capabilities of the Isotope Enrichment Facility and the Isotope Research Materials Laboratory as well as emphasizing potential advancements in enrichment capabilities

  20. Stable isotope enrichment - current and future potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tracy, J.G.; Aaron, W.S.

    1993-01-01

    Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) operates the Isotope Enrichment Facility for the purpose of providing enriched stable isotopes, selected radioactive isotopes (including the actinides), and isotope-related materials and services for use in various research applications. ORNL is responsible for isotope enrichment and the distribution of approximately 225 nongaseous stable isotopes from 50 multi-isotopic elements. Many enriched isotope products are of prime importance in the fabrication of nuclear targets and the subsequent production of special radionuclides. State-of-the-art techniques to achieve special isotopic, chemical, and physical requirements are performed at ORNL. This report describes the status and capabilities of the Isotope Enrichment Facility and the Isotope Research Materials Laboratory as well as emphasizing potential advancements in enrichment capabilities. (orig.)

  1. Onshore wind energy potential over Iberia: present and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rochinha, Carlos A.; Santos, João A.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2014-05-01

    Onshore grid-connected wind power generation has been explored for more than three decades in the Iberian Peninsula. Further, increasing attention has been devoted to renewable energy sources in a climate change context. While advantages of wind energy are widely recognized, its distribution is not spatially homogeneous and not uniform throughout the year. Hence, understanding these spatial-temporal distributions is critical in power system planning. The present study aims at assessing the potential power output estimated from 10 m wind components simulated by a regional climate model (CCLM), driven by ERA40 reanalysis. Datasets are available on a grid with a high spatial resolution (approximately 20 km) and over a 40-yr period (1961-2000). Furthermore, several target sites, located in areas with high installed wind generation capacity, are selected for local-to-regional scale assessments. The results show that potential wind power is higher over northern Iberia, mostly in Cantabria and Galicia, while Andalucía and Cataluña record the lowest values. With respect to the intra-annual variability, summer is by far the season with the lowest potential energy outputs. Furthermore, the inter-annual variability reveals an overall downward long-term trend over the 40-yr period, particularly in the winter time series. A CCLM transient experiment, forced by the SRES A1B emission scenario, is also discussed for a future period (2041-2070), after a model validation/calibration process (bias corrections). Significant changes in the wind power potential are projected for the future throughout Iberia, but their magnitude largely depends on the locations. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER- 019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

  2. The Future Potential of Waver Power in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirko Previsic; Jeff Epler; Maureen Hand; Donna Heimiller; Walter Short; Kelly Eurek

    2012-09-20

    The theoretical ocean wave energy resource potential exceeds 50% of the annual domestic energy demand of the United States, is located close to coastal population centers, and, although variable in nature, may be more consistent and predictable than some other renewable generation technologies. As a renewable electricity generation technology, ocean wave energy offers a low air pollutant option for diversifying the U.S. electricity generation portfolio. Furthermore, the output characteristics of these technologies may complement other renewable technologies. This study addresses the following: (1) The theoretical, technical and practical potential for electricity generation from wave energy (2) The present lifecycle cost profile (Capex, Opex, and Cost of Electricity) of wave energy conversion technology at a reference site in Northern California at different plant scales (3) Cost of electricity variations as a function of deployment site, considering technical, geo-spatial and and electric grid constraints (4) Technology cost reduction pathways (5) Cost reduction targets at which the technology will see significant deployment within US markets, explored through a series of deployment scenarios RE Vision Consulting, LLC (RE Vision), engaged in various analyses to establish current and future cost profiles for marine hydrokinetic (MHK) technologies, quantified the theoretical, technical and practical resource potential, performed electricity market assessments and developed deployment scenarios. RE Vision was supported in this effort by NREL analysts, who compiled resource information, performed analysis using the ReEDSa model to develop deployment scenarios, and developed a simplified assessment of the Alaska and Hawaii electricity markets.

  3. Potential Future Igneous Activity at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cline, M.; Perry, F.; Valentine, G.; Smistad, E.

    2005-01-01

    Location, timing, and volumes of post-Miocene volcanic activity, along with expert judgment, provide the basis for assessing the probability of future volcanism intersecting a proposed repository for nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Analog studies of eruptive centers in the region that may represent the style and extent of possible future igneous activity at Yucca Mountain have aided in defining the consequence scenarios for intrusion into and eruption through a proposed repository. Modeling of magmatic processes related to magma/proposed repository interactions has been used to assess the potential consequences of a future igneous event through a proposed repository at Yucca Mountain. Results of work to date indicate future igneous activity in the Yucca Mountain region has a very low probability of intersecting the proposed repository. Probability of a future event intersecting a proposed repository at Yucca Mountain is approximately 1.7 x 10 -8 per year. Since completion of the Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) in 1996, anomalies representing potential buried volcanic centers have been identified from aeromagnetic surveys. A re-assessment of the hazard is currently underway to evaluate the probability of intersection in light of new information and to estimate the probability of one or more volcanic conduits located in the proposed repository along a dike that intersects the proposed repository. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission regulations for siting and licensing a proposed repository require that the consequences of a disruptive event (igneous event) with annual probability greater than 1 x 10 -8 be evaluated. Two consequence scenarios are considered: (1) igneous intrusion-poundwater transport case and (2) volcanic eruptive case. These scenarios equate to a dike or dike swarm intersecting repository drifts containing waste packages, formation of a conduit leading to a volcanic eruption through the repository that carries the contents of

  4. Assessing potential future environmental legal events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonn, B. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Petrich, C. [The Ernst and Yound Center for Business Innovation, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1997-10-28

    This report addresses the topic of environmental citizenship in the United States. The term refers to responsibilities each of us have with respect to helping our communities and nation make sound environmental decisions. This research centers on the citizens and what we ought to be doing, as opposed to what the government ought to be doing for us, to improve environmental citizenship. This report examines four central questions: What are the requirements (i.e., responsibilities) of citizenship vis-a-vis environmental decision- making processes; what constraints limit people`s ability to meet these requirements; what does our form of governance do to help or hinder in meeting these requirements; and what recommendations can be put forth to improve public participation in environmental decision making?

  5. Potential future impacts of climatic change on the Great Plains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smit, B.

    1991-01-01

    A synopsis is provided of approaches to impact studies in the Great Plains, findings from studies of future impacts are summarized, and opportunities for enhancing understanding of future impacts are discussed. Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources, forestry, recreation/tourism, and energy are summarized. Impact analyses need to look more rigorously at variability in climate, the probabilities of various climatic conditions, and the sensitivity of social and economic activities to climatic variability. Most economic impact studies have assumed no adaptive behavior on the part of economic decision makers. Credible impact assessments require an improved understanding of the sensitivity and adaptability of sectors to climatic conditions, particularly variability. The energy sector in the Great Plains region is likely to be more sensitive to political developments in the Middle East than to climatic variability and change. Speculation and analysis of climate impacts have focused on supply conditions and demands, yet the sector is more keenly sensitive to policy implications of climatic change, such as the potential for fossil fuel taxes or other legislative or pricing constraints. 28 refs

  6. Global Energy Assessment. Toward a Sustainable Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johansson, T B; Nakicenovic, N; Patwardhan, A; Gomez-Echeverri, L [eds.

    2012-11-01

    The Global Energy Assessment (GEA) brings together over 300 international researchers to provide an independent, scientifically based, integrated and policy-relevant analysis of current and emerging energy issues and options. It has been peer-reviewed anonymously by an additional 200 international experts. The GEA assesses the major global challenges for sustainable development and their linkages to energy; the technologies and resources available for providing energy services; future energy systems that address the major challenges; and the policies and other measures that are needed to realize transformational change toward sustainable energy futures. The GEA goes beyond existing studies on energy issues by presenting a comprehensive and integrated analysis of energy challenges, opportunities and strategies, for developing, industrialized and emerging economies. This volume is an invaluable resource for energy specialists and technologists in all sectors (academia, industry and government) as well as policymakers, development economists and practitioners in international organizations and national governments.

  7. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  8. Assessment of wind energy potential in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhu Rong; Zhang De; Wang Yuedong; Xing Xuhuang; Li Zechun

    2009-01-01

    China wind atlas was made by numerical simulation and the wind energy potential in China was calculated. The model system for wind energy resource assessment was set up based on Canadian Wind Energy Simulating Toolkit (WEST) and the simulating method was as follows. First, the weather classes were obtained depend on meteorological data of 30 years. Then, driven by the initial meteorological field produced by each weather class, the meso-scale model ran for the distribution of wind energy resources according each weather class condition one by one. Finally, averaging all the modeling output weighted by the occurrence frequency of each weather class, the annual mean distribution of wind energy resources was worked out. Compared the simulated wind energy potential with other results from several ac-tivities and studies for wind energy resource assessment, it is found that the simulated wind energy potential in mainland of China is 3 times that from the second and the third investigations for wind energy resources by CMA, and is similar to the wind energy potential obtained by NREL in Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment (SWERA) project. The simulated offshore wind energy potential of China seems smaller than the true value. According to the simulated results of CMA and considering lots of limited factors to wind energy development, the final conclusion can be obtained that the wind energy availability in China is 700~1 200 GW, in which 600~1 000 GW is in mainland and 100~200 GW is on offshore, and wind power will become the important part of energy composition in future.

  9. Assessing future trends in indoor air quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    van de Wiel, H.J.; Lebret, E.; van der Lingen, W.K.; Eerens, H.C.; Vaas, L.H.; Leupen, M.J.

    1990-01-01

    Several national and international health organizations have derived concentration levels below which adverse effects on men are not expected or levels below which the excess risk for individuals is less than a specified value. For every priority pollutant indoor concentrations below this limit are considered healthy. The percentage of Dutch homes exceeding such a limit is taken as a measure of indoor air quality for that component. The present and future indoor air quality of the Dutch housing stock is described for fourteen air pollutants. The highest percentages are scored by radon, environmental tobacco smoke, nitrogen dioxide from unvented combustion, and the potential presence of housedust mite and mould allergen in damp houses. Although the trend for all priority pollutants is downward the most serious ones remain high in the coming decades if no additional measures will be instituted

  10. Criteria for the assessment of reactor potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carruthers, R.

    1982-01-01

    This article outlines some of the more general criteria to be used in assessing reactor potential. The interdependence of plasma and engineering parameters is considered. This demonstrated how it is the first wall power loading which is the critical parameter in assessing economic prospects. Taking some of the current conceptual designs of fusion reactors and raising the wall loading to the value needed to approach a competitive cost leads to a very challenging set of parameters. Although developed in terms of a tokamak they are figures which are applicable more generally to fusion reactors which are toroidal in form. It is not at all obvious that the tokamak could ever satisfy this criterion of economic viability, so we should not be using the parameters of existing tokamak reactor designs as the basis for assessing alternative approaches. We need to see whether there is an alternative sufficiently different as to offer a better chance of reaching these more onerous parameters. Unfortunately, so many of the alternatives differ only in magnetic geometry and their physical geometry leads to the same problems as faced by the tokamak. The traditional approach -- devising intriguing ''boxes'' for studying the confinement of plasma and then speculating on their reactor potential -- should give way to new initiatives. What we need in the fusion program is more ''reactor relevance pull'' and less ''plasma physics push'' when planning future activities

  11. Exploring the Future Potential of Jute in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanzidur Rahman

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The study assesses the future potential of the jute sector in Bangladesh by examining its growth performance, international competitiveness, profitability, and production efficiency using national time-series data of over the period 1973–2013 and farm survey data from 289 farmers from two major jute growing areas of Bangladesh. Results revealed that the jute sector has experienced substantial growth in area, production, productivity, prices, and exports. However, productivity has stagnated during the latter 10-year period (2004–2013, while it grew at a rate of 1.3% per annum (p.a. during the first 31-year period (1973–2003. Only traditional jute production is globally competitive, although financial profitability of white jute is relatively higher (benefit cost ratio = 1.24 and 1.17, respectively. Land, labor, and irrigation are the main productivity drivers for jute. The mean production efficiency of jute is estimated at 75% indicating substantial scope to improve yield by eliminating inefficiency. Marginal farmers are relatively inefficient. Policy implications include investments in research and development, irrigation, and tenurial reform and export protection for white jute in order to revive the sector and boost export earnings.

  12. Conventional engine technology. Volume 3: Comparisons and future potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowdy, M. W.

    1981-01-01

    The status of five conventional automobile engine technologies was assessed and the future potential for increasing fuel economy and reducing exhaust emission was discussed, using the 1980 EPA California emisions standards as a comparative basis. By 1986, the fuel economy of a uniform charge Otto engine with a three-way catalyst is expected to increase 10%, while vehicles with lean burn (fast burn) engines should show a 20% fuel economy increase. Although vehicles with stratified-charge engines and rotary engines are expected to improve, their fuel economy will remain inferior to the other engine types. When adequate NO emissions control methods are implemented to meet the EPA requirements, vehicles with prechamber diesel engines are expected to yield a fuel economy advantage of about 15%. While successful introduction of direct injection diesel engine technology will provide a fuel savings of 30 to 35%, the planned regulation of exhaust particulates could seriously hinder this technology, because it is expected that only the smallest diesel engine vehicles could meet the proposed particulate requirements.

  13. Assessment of future natural gas vehicle concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groten, B.; Arrigotti, S.

    1992-10-01

    The development of Natural Gas Vehicles is progressing rapidly under the stimulus of recent vehicle emission regulations. The development is following what can be viewed as a three step progression. In the first step, contemporary gasoline or diesel fueled automobiles are retrofitted with equipment enabling the vehicle to operate on either natural gas or standard liquid fuels. The second step is the development of vehicles which utilize traditional internal combustion engines that have been modified to operate exclusively on natural gas. These dedicated natural gas vehicles operate more efficiently and have lower emissions than the dual fueled vehicles. The third step is the redesigning, from the ground up, of a vehicle aimed at exploiting the advantages of natural gas as an automotive fuel while minimizing its disadvantages. The current report is aimed at identifying the R&D needs in various fuel storage and engine combinations which have potential for providing increased efficiency, reduced emissions, and reductions in vehicle weight and size. Fuel suppliers, automobile and engine manufacturers, many segments of the natural gas and other industries, and regulatory authorities will influence or be affected by the development of such a third generation vehicle, and it is recommended that GRI act to bring these groups together in the near future to begin, developing the focus on a 'designed-for-natural-gas' vehicle.

  14. Assessing potential sustainable wood yield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert F. Powers

    2001-01-01

    Society is making unprecedented demands on world forests to produce and sustain many values. Chief among them is wood supply, and concerns are rising globally about the ability of forests to meet increasing needs. Assessing this is not easy. It requires a basic understanding of the principles governing forest productivity: how wood yield varies with tree and stand...

  15. Assessment of rainwater harvesting potential using GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hari, Durgasrilakshmi; Ramamohan Reddy, K.; Vikas, Kola; Srinivas, N.; Vikas, G.

    2018-03-01

    Rainwater harvesting (RWH) is one of the best practices to overcome the scarcity of water. Rainwater harvesting involves collection and storage of rainwater locally through different technologies, for future use. It is also useful for livestock, groundwater recharge and for irrigation practices. Potential of rainwater harvesting refers to the capacity of an individual catchment that harnesses the water falling on the catchment during a particular year considering all rainy days. The present study deals with the identification of the study area boundary and marking it as a Polygon in Google Earth Pro Later, Rooftops of various house entities and roads were digitized using the Polygon command in Google Earth Pro. GIS technique is employed for locating boundaries of the study area and for calculating the areas of various types of rooftops and roads. With the application of GIS, it is possible to assess the total potential of water that can be harvested. The present study will enable us to identify the suitable type of water harvesting structure along with the number of structures required. It is extremely an ideal and effective solution to overcome the water crisis through water conservation in the study area.

  16. Assessing the need for future veterinary surgeons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, Manuela

    2013-12-21

    While some in the profession are concerned about a possible 'overproduction' of vets, others argue that more might be needed to help meet current and future challenges. A debate at this year's BVA Congress tackled the question of how many vets are required, while considering how their unique skills might be more widely applied. Manuela Herrera reports.

  17. Managing employer brand attributes to attract potential future leaders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonaiuto, Marino; De Dominicis, Stefano; Illia, Laura

    2013-01-01

    for attracting talented people. Using three empirical studies, we identify brand attributes that have not been very widely diffused among real companies (versus ideal) but are relevant for attracting young professionals with the potential to become leaders. We also identify which brand attributes already present...... among real employees allow for attracting talented individuals versus the non-talented ones. The three studies are conducted with a sample of 493, 729 and 1605 recent graduates from Italian universities, respectively. The results indicate that the most idealized brand attributes are related...... are discussed with reference to how they contribute to our understanding of EB, brand management and the attraction of future leaders....

  18. Life cycle assessment : Past, present, and future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guinée, Jeroen B.; Heijungs, Reinout; Huppes, Gjalt; Zamagni, Alessandra; Masoni, Paolo; Buonamici, Roberto; Ekvall, Tomas; Rydberg, Tomas

    2011-01-01

    Environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) has developed fast over the last three decades. Whereas LCA developed from merely energy analysis to a comprehensive environmental burden analysis in the 1970s, full-fledged life cycle impact assessment and life cycle costing models were introduced in the

  19. USGCRP's Sustained Assessment Process: Progress to date and future plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeAngelo, B. J.; Reidmiller, D.; Lipschultz, F.; Cloyd, E. T.

    2016-12-01

    One of the four main objectives of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP's) Strategic Plan is to "Conduct Sustained Assessments", which seeks to build a process that synthesizes and advances the state of scientific knowledge on global change, develops future scenarios and potential impacts, and evaluates how effectively science is being and can be used to inform and support the Nation's response to climate change. To do so, USGCRP strives to establish a standing capacity to conduct national climate assessments with sectoral and regional information to evaluate climate risks and opportunities, and to inform decision-making, especially with regard to resiliency planning and adaptation measures. Building on the success of the 3rd National Climate Assessment (NCA) (2014), we discuss the range of USGCRP activities that embody the sustained assessment concept. Special reports, such as the recent Climate and Human Health Assessment and upcoming Climate Science Special Report, fill gaps in our understanding and provide crucial building blocks for next NCA report (NCA4). To facilitate the use of consistent assumptions across NCA4, new scenario products for climate, population, and land use will be made available through initiatives such as NOAA's Climate Resilience Toolkit. NCA4 will be informed by user engagement to advance the customization of knowledge. The report will strive to advance our ability to quantify various risks, monetize certain impacts, and communicate the benefits (i.e., avoided impacts) of various mitigation pathways. NCAnet (a national network of climate-interested stakeholders) continues to grow and foster collaborations across levels of governance and within civil society. Finally, USGCRP continues to actively engage with other assessment processes, at international, state, city, and tribal levels, to exchange ideas and to facilitate the potential for "linked" assessments across spatial scales.

  20. Advanced ceramic materials and their potential impact on the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laren, M.G.M.

    1989-01-01

    This article reviews the types of advanced ceramic materials that are being used today and their potential for even greater utilization in the future. Market analysis and projections have been developed from a number of sources both foreign and domestic are referenced and given in the text. Projection on the future use of advanced ceramics to the year 2000 indicate a potential growth of the total world market approaching 187 billion dollars. This paper describes advanced ceramic materials by their functionality, i.e. structural, electronic, chemical, thermal, biological, nuclear, etc. It also refers to specific engineering uses of advanced ceramics and include automotive ceramic materials with physical data for the most likely ceramic materials to be used for engine parts. This family of materials includes silicon carbides, silicon nitride, partially stabilized zirconia and alumina. Fiber reinforced ceramic composites are discussed with recognition of the research on fiber coating chemistry and the compatibility of the coating with the fiber and the matrix. Another class of advanced ceramics is toughened ceramics. The transformation toughened alumina is recognized as an example of this technology. The data indicate that electronic ceramic materials will always have the largest portion of the advanced ceramic market and the critical concepts of a wide range of uses is reviewed. (Auth.)

  1. NextGen Future Safety Assessment Game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ancel, Ersin; Gheorghe, Adrian; Jones, Sharon Monica

    2011-01-01

    The successful implementation of the next generation infrastructure systems requires solid understanding of their technical, social, political and economic aspects along with their interactions. The lack of historical data that relate to the long-term planning of complex systems introduces unique challenges for decision makers and involved stakeholders which in turn result in unsustainable systems. Also, the need to understand the infrastructure at the societal level and capture the interaction between multiple stakeholders becomes important. This paper proposes a methodology in order to develop a holistic approach aiming to provide an alternative subject-matter expert (SME) elicitation and data collection method for future sociotechnical systems. The methodology is adapted to Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) decision making environment in order to demonstrate the benefits of this holistic approach.

  2. Are all pharmacy staff interested in potential future roles?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braund, Rhiannon; Chesney, Kate Marie; Keast, Emilia Paulina; Ng, Lye Jinn; Qi, Sarah; Samaranayaka, Sashika; Wang, Eddie

    2012-12-01

    To determine the current perceived roles and responsibilities of pharmacy staff in community pharmacies in New Zealand, and attitudes to proposed new advanced roles for pharmacy staff. Structured interviews were conducted within five community pharmacies, including at least two pharmacists, two dispensary staff and two pharmacy assistants. The interviews were structured to determine previous experience, current roles and responsibilities and the perceived future roles of pharmacy staff within a community pharmacy setting. Thematic analysis from 27 interviews identified key findings. Current roles appeared to be fairly well defined. Pharmacy assistants listed key roles as customer interactions and sales focus, noting that the dispensary was outside their area of responsibility. Technicians identified their role as being dispensary focused while pharmacists saw their role as the 'final check' to ensure accuracy as well as providing dispensing, counselling and managerial roles. With potential future roles, the assistants were less interested than the other groups, citing contentment with current situation and training as a barrier. Some technicians indicated an interest in furthering their roles, but many were reluctant and saw that additional training was too time consuming. Whilst pharmacists appeared to be interested in further scopes of practice, they appeared more reluctant to do this at the expense of handing dispensing responsibility to a non-pharmacist. Whilst there is a push for pharmacists to provide advanced clinical services, it is important to acknowledge that many staff working within community pharmacies are satisfied with their current role. © 2012 The Authors. IJPP © 2012 Royal Pharmaceutical Society.

  3. Fuel performance-experience to date and future potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Proebstle, R.A.; Klepfer, H.H.

    1987-01-01

    The experience in the USA to date, as reported in the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission data, conforms a very favorable cost trend for nuclear fuel costs relative to fossil fuel costs. The nuclear fuel cost promose relative to other fuels looks even better in future. Uranium supply surplus and advances in enrichment technology suggest that this trend should continue. Threats to the economic potential for nuclear fuel costs include unexpected problems in actural versus projected core and fuel technical performance. The New designs for BWR's nuclear fuel are extended to 38,000 MWd/MTU and the fuel rod reliabilities of 0.999994 are achievable. This reliability is equivalent to less than 3 fuel rod failures over the 40 year life of a reactor. (Liu)

  4. Future changes in global warming potentials under representative concentration pathways

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reisinger, Andy [New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre, PO Box 10002, Wellington 6143 (New Zealand); Meinshausen, Malte [Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany); Manning, Martin, E-mail: andy.reisinger@nzagrc.org.nz [Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington (New Zealand)

    2011-04-15

    Global warming potentials (GWPs) are the metrics currently used to compare emissions of different greenhouse gases under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Future changes in greenhouse gas concentrations will alter GWPs because the radiative efficiencies of marginal changes in CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O depend on their background concentrations, the removal of CO{sub 2} is influenced by climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, and atmospheric residence times of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O also depend on ambient temperature and other environmental changes. We calculated the currently foreseeable future changes in the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2}, which acts as the denominator for the calculation of all GWPs, and specifically the GWPs of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O, along four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) up to the year 2100. We find that the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2} decreases under all RCPs, although for longer time horizons this decrease is smaller than for short time horizons due to increased climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. The 100-year GWP of CH{sub 4} would increase up to 20% under the lowest RCP by 2100 but would decrease by up to 10% by mid-century under the highest RCP. The 100-year GWP of N{sub 2}O would increase by more than 30% by 2100 under the highest RCP but would vary by less than 10% under other scenarios. These changes are not negligible but are mostly smaller than the changes that would result from choosing a different time horizon for GWPs, or from choosing altogether different metrics for comparing greenhouse gas emissions, such as global temperature change potentials.

  5. RPA Assessment of Outdoor Recreation: Past, Current, and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    John C. Bergstrom; H. Ken Cordell

    1994-01-01

    In this paper, the outdoor recreation sections of the Renewable Resource Planning Act (RPA) Assessments conducted to date are reviewed. Current policy and mangement applications of the outsdoor recreation results published in 1989 Assessment are discussed also. The paper concludes with suggestions for the assemssment of outdoor recreation in future RPA Assessements...

  6. Quantitative health impact assessment: current practice and future directions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.L. Veerman (Lennert); J.J.M. Barendregt (Jan); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractSTUDY OBJECTIVE: To assess what methods are used in quantitative health impact assessment (HIA), and to identify areas for future research and development. DESIGN: HIA reports were assessed for (1) methods used to quantify effects of policy on determinants of health

  7. Environmental assessment process needs and future directions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gustafson, P.F.

    1985-01-01

    The environmental assessment process as legislatively mandated by the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) constitutes a double-edged sword as regards the successful management and disposal of radioactive waste. On the one hand, NEPA requires identification and disclosure of the environmental and societal consequences of a given major federal action, consideration of alternatives and/or mitigative measures leading to the same end result, a balancing of costs and benefits, and provides for and encourages public participation in the decision-making process regarding the proposed action(s). On the other hand, public participation supported by judicial decisions, based more upon procedural than substantive issues, may delay, alter, or indeed prohibit a proposed course of action. If the cognizant federal agencies (DOE and NRC in the radioactive waste area) comply with both the spirit and the letter of NEPA a framework for the successful management of radioactive wastes on all types can be developed. If however, these agencies are less than earnest in their NEPA compliance actions or if public opposition is backed by overzealous court action, any radioactive waste management/disposal action (however technically sound) can be hoisted upon a petard from which it may not be freed until well into the next century

  8. Environmental assessment process needs and future directions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gustafson, P.F.

    1985-01-01

    The environmental assessment process as legislatively mandated by the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) constitutes a double-edged sword as regards the successful management and disposal of radioactive waste. On the one hand, NEPA requires identification and disclosure of the environmental and societal consequences of a given major federal action, consideration of alternatives and/or mitigative measures leading to the same end result, a balancing of costs and benefits, and provides for and encourages public participation in the decision-making process regarding the proposed action(s). On the other hand, public participation supported by judicial decisions, based more upon procedural than substantive issues, may delay, alter, or indeed prohibit a proposed course of action. If the cognizant federal agencies (DOE and NRC in the radioactive waste area) comply with both the spirit and the letter of NEPA a framework for the successful management of radioactive wastes on all types can be developed. If however, these agencies are less than earnest in their NEPA compliance actions or if public opposition is backed by overzealous court action, any radioactive waste management/disposal action (however technically sound) can be hoisted upon a petard from which it may not be freed until well into the next century.

  9. Representing Water Scarcity in Future Agricultural Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Jonathan M.; Lopez, Jose R.; Ruane, Alexander C.; Young, Charles A.; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

    2017-01-01

    Globally, irrigated agriculture is both essential for food production and the largest user of water. A major challenge for hydrologic and agricultural research communities is assessing the sustainability of irrigated croplands under climate variability and change. Simulations of irrigated croplands generally lack key interactions between water supply, water distribution, and agricultural water demand. In this article, we explore the critical interface between water resources and agriculture by motivating, developing, and illustrating the application of an integrated modeling framework to advance simulations of irrigated croplands. We motivate the framework by examining historical dynamics of irrigation water withdrawals in the United States and quantitatively reviewing previous modeling studies of irrigated croplands with a focus on representations of water supply, agricultural water demand, and impacts on crop yields when water demand exceeds water supply. We then describe the integrated modeling framework for simulating irrigated croplands, which links trends and scenarios with water supply, water allocation, and agricultural water demand. Finally, we provide examples of efforts that leverage the framework to improve simulations of irrigated croplands as well as identify opportunities for interventions that increase agricultural productivity, resiliency, and sustainability.

  10. The potential natural vegetation of eastern Africa distribution, conservation and future changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Breugel, Paulo

    and sustainable management of the natural environment. There is therefore an urgent need for information that allow us to assess the current status of the region’s natural environment and to predict how this may change under future climates. This thesis aims to improve our knowledge on natural vegetation...... and how this is likely to change under different climate change scenarios. Chapter 4 presents an environmental gap analysis to prioritize conservation efforts in eastern Africa, based on an evaluation of the environmental representativeness of protected areas and an assessment of the level of threat...... distribution in eastern African, examine how this may change under future climates, and how this can be used to identify conservation priorities in the region. Chapter 1 presents a brief overview of the concept of the potential natural vegetation (PNV), synthesizes the general findings and discusses future...

  11. Cyto- and genotoxicological assessment and functional characterization of N-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone-acrylic acid-based copolymeric hydrogels with potential for future use in wound healing applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirf, Dominik; Devery, Sinead M; Higginbotham, Clement L; Rowan, Neil J

    2010-01-01

    This study investigated the toxicity of N-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone-acrylic acid copolymer hydrogels crosslinked with ethylene glycol dimethacrylate or poly(ethylene glycol) dimethacrylate. There is a pressing need to establish the toxicity status of these new copolymers because they may find applications in future wound healing processes. Investigations revealed that the capacity of these hydrogels for swelling permitted the retention of high amounts of water yet still maintaining structural integrity. Reverse phase HPLC analysis suggested that unreacted monomeric base material was efficiently removed post-polymerization by applying an additional purification process. Subsequently, in vitro toxicity testing was performed utilizing direct and indirect contact exposure of the polymers to human keratinocytes (HaCaT) and human hepatoma (HepG2) cells. No indication of significant cell death was observed using the established MTT, neutral red (NR) and fluorescence-based toxicity endpoint indicators. In addition, the alkaline Comet assay showed no genotoxic effects following cell exposure to hydrogel extracts. Investigations at the nucleotide level using the Ames mutagenicity assay demonstrated no evidence of mutagenic activity associated with the polymers. Findings from this study demonstrated that these hydrogels are non-cytotoxic and further work can be carried out to investigate their potential as a wound-healing device that will impact positively on patient health and well-being.

  12. Cyto- and genotoxicological assessment and functional characterization of N-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone-acrylic acid-based copolymeric hydrogels with potential for future use in wound healing applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirf, Dominik; Devery, Sinead M [Department of Life and Physical Science, Athlone Institute of Technology (Ireland); Higginbotham, Clement L [Materials Research Institute, Athlone Institute of Technology (Ireland); Rowan, Neil J, E-mail: sdevery@ait.i, E-mail: dkirf@ait.i, E-mail: chigginbotham@ait.i, E-mail: nrowan@ait.i [Department of Nursing and Health Science, Athlone Institute of Technology (Ireland)

    2010-06-01

    This study investigated the toxicity of N-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone-acrylic acid copolymer hydrogels crosslinked with ethylene glycol dimethacrylate or poly(ethylene glycol) dimethacrylate. There is a pressing need to establish the toxicity status of these new copolymers because they may find applications in future wound healing processes. Investigations revealed that the capacity of these hydrogels for swelling permitted the retention of high amounts of water yet still maintaining structural integrity. Reverse phase HPLC analysis suggested that unreacted monomeric base material was efficiently removed post-polymerization by applying an additional purification process. Subsequently, in vitro toxicity testing was performed utilizing direct and indirect contact exposure of the polymers to human keratinocytes (HaCaT) and human hepatoma (HepG2) cells. No indication of significant cell death was observed using the established MTT, neutral red (NR) and fluorescence-based toxicity endpoint indicators. In addition, the alkaline Comet assay showed no genotoxic effects following cell exposure to hydrogel extracts. Investigations at the nucleotide level using the Ames mutagenicity assay demonstrated no evidence of mutagenic activity associated with the polymers. Findings from this study demonstrated that these hydrogels are non-cytotoxic and further work can be carried out to investigate their potential as a wound-healing device that will impact positively on patient health and well-being.

  13. SIMULATION OF NET INFILTRATION FOR MODERN AND POTENTIAL FUTURE CLIMATES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    J.A. Heveal

    2000-01-01

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) describes enhancements made to the infiltration model documented in Flint et al. (1996) and documents an analysis using the enhanced model to generate spatial and temporal distributions over a model domain encompassing the Yucca Mountain site, Nevada. Net infiltration is the component of infiltrated precipitation, snowmelt, or surface water run-on that has percolated below the zone of evapotranspiration as defined by the depth of the effective root zone, the average depth below the ground surface (at a given location) from which water is removed by evapotranspiration. The estimates of net infiltration are used for defining the upper boundary condition for the site-scale 3-dimensional Unsaturated-Zone Ground Water Flow and Transport (UZ flow and transport) Model (CRWMS M and O 2000a). The UZ flow and transport model is one of several process models abstracted by the Total System Performance Assessment model to evaluate expected performance of the potential repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, in terms of radionuclide transport (CRWMS M and O 1998). The net-infiltration model is important for assessing potential repository-system performance because output from this model provides the upper boundary condition for the UZ flow and transport model that is used to generate flow fields for evaluating potential radionuclide transport through the unsaturated zone. Estimates of net infiltration are provided as raster-based, 2-dimensional grids of spatially distributed, time-averaged rates for three different climate stages estimated as likely conditions for the next 10,000 years beyond the present. Each climate stage is represented using a lower bound, a mean, and an upper bound climate and corresponding net-infiltration scenario for representing uncertainty in the characterization of daily climate conditions for each climate stage, as well as potential climate variability within each climate stage. The set of nine raster grid maps provide

  14. SIMULATION OF NET INFILTRATION FOR MODERN AND POTENTIAL FUTURE CLIMATES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J.A. Heveal

    2000-06-16

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) describes enhancements made to the infiltration model documented in Flint et al. (1996) and documents an analysis using the enhanced model to generate spatial and temporal distributions over a model domain encompassing the Yucca Mountain site, Nevada. Net infiltration is the component of infiltrated precipitation, snowmelt, or surface water run-on that has percolated below the zone of evapotranspiration as defined by the depth of the effective root zone, the average depth below the ground surface (at a given location) from which water is removed by evapotranspiration. The estimates of net infiltration are used for defining the upper boundary condition for the site-scale 3-dimensional Unsaturated-Zone Ground Water Flow and Transport (UZ flow and transport) Model (CRWMS M&O 2000a). The UZ flow and transport model is one of several process models abstracted by the Total System Performance Assessment model to evaluate expected performance of the potential repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, in terms of radionuclide transport (CRWMS M&O 1998). The net-infiltration model is important for assessing potential repository-system performance because output from this model provides the upper boundary condition for the UZ flow and transport model that is used to generate flow fields for evaluating potential radionuclide transport through the unsaturated zone. Estimates of net infiltration are provided as raster-based, 2-dimensional grids of spatially distributed, time-averaged rates for three different climate stages estimated as likely conditions for the next 10,000 years beyond the present. Each climate stage is represented using a lower bound, a mean, and an upper bound climate and corresponding net-infiltration scenario for representing uncertainty in the characterization of daily climate conditions for each climate stage, as well as potential climate variability within each climate stage. The set of nine raster grid maps provide spatially

  15. Historical Spice as a Future Drug: Therapeutic Potential of Piperlongumine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Sahdeo; Tyagi, Amit K

    2016-01-01

    Spice and spice-derived compounds have been identified and explored for their health benefits since centuries. One of the spice long pepper has been traditionally used to treat chronic bronchitis, asthma, constipation, gonorrhea, paralysis of the tongue, diarrhea, cholera, malaria, viral hepatitis, respiratory infections, stomach ache, diseases of the spleen, cough, and tumors. In this review, the evidences for the chemopreventive and chemotherapeutic potential of piperlongumine have been described. The active component piperlonguime has shown effective against various ailments including cancer, neurogenerative disease, arthritis, melanogenesis, lupus nephritis, and hyperlipidemic. These beneficial effects of piperlongumine is attributed to its ability to modulate several signaling molecules like reactive oxygen species, kinases, proteasome, proto-oncogenes, transcription factors, cell cycle, inflammatory molecules and cell growth and survival molecules. Piperlongumine also chemosensitizes to drugs resistant cancer cells. Overall the consumption of long peppers is therefore recommended for the prevention and treatment of various diseases including cancer, and thus piperlongumine may be a promising future candidate drug against cancer.

  16. Topological insulators/superconductors: Potential future electronic materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hor, Y. S.

    2014-01-01

    A new material called topological insulator has been discovered and becomes one of the fastest growing field in condensed matter physics. Topological insulator is a new quantum phase of matter which has Dirac-like conductivity on its surface, but bulk insulator through its interior. It is considered a challenging problem for the surface transport measurements because of dominant internal conductance due to imperfections of the existing crystals of topological insulators. By a proper method, the internal bulk conduction can be suppressed in a topological insulator, and permit the detection of the surface currents which is necessary for future fault-tolerant quantum computing applications. Doped topological insulators have depicted a large variety of bulk physical properties ranging from magnetic to superconducting behaviors. By chemical doping, a TI can change into a bulk superconductor. Nb x Bi 2 Se 3 is shown to be a superconductor with T c ∼ 3.2 K, which could be a potential candidate for a topological superconductor

  17. Carbon offset potentials and design: Anticipating future public policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trexler, M.C.; Kosloff, L.H.; Gowen, M.

    1994-01-01

    Carbon offsets offer CO 2 emitters the opportunity to compensate for some proportion of their CO 2 emissions through the pursuit of emissions reduction or carbon sequestration projects beyond their own operational boundaries. The flexibility to pursue carbon offsets ''off-site'' can dramatically reduce the costs of achieving a given net emissions reduction. The future role of carbon offsets, however, continues to be a topic of considerable debate. Several processes are currently under way nationally and internationally that will help shape this role. This paper discusses how alternative policy outcomes could encourage or restrict the viability of carbon offsets as a component of corporate climate change mitigation portfolios and proposes criteria by which projects should be evaluated prior to the finalization of national or international policy frameworks. Based on these outcomes, the potential for offsets could be very large or very modest. It is vital that policy development in the offset arena account for the still voluntary nature of mitigation efforts and that the objective of climate change mitigation not be forgotten in the push for offset rules and regulations. At the same time, carbon offsets are far from a panacea for climate change mitigation and should be evaluated in the context of a larger global mitigation portfolio

  18. A generic hydroeconomic model to assess future water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice

    2015-04-01

    We developed a generic hydroeconomic model able to confront future water supply and demand on a large scale, taking into account man-made reservoirs. The assessment is done at the scale of river basins, using only globally available data; the methodology can thus be generalized. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources. The available quantity of water at each site is computed using the following information: runoff is taken from the outputs of CNRM climate model (Dubois et al., 2010), reservoirs are located using Aquastat, and the sub-basin flow-accumulation area of each reservoir is determined based on a Digital Elevation Model (HYDRO1k). On the demand side, agricultural and domestic demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. For the agricultural sector, globally available data on irrigated areas and crops are combined in order to determine irrigated crops localization. Then, crops irrigation requirements are computed for the different stages of the growing season using Allen (1998) method with Hargreaves potential evapotranspiration. Irrigation water economic value is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. Potential irrigated and rainfed yields are taken from LPJmL (Blondeau et al., 2007), or from FAOSTAT by making simple assumptions on yield ratios. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The method consists in building three-blocks inverse demand functions where volume limits of the blocks evolve with the level of GDP per capita. The value of water along the demand curve is determined from price-elasticity, price and demand data from the literature, using the point-expansion method, and from water costs data. Then projected demands are confronted to future water availability. Operating rules of the reservoirs and water allocation between demands are based on

  19. The Abiotic Depletion Potential: Background, Updates, and Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauran van Oers

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Depletion of abiotic resources is a much disputed impact category in life cycle assessment (LCA. The reason is that the problem can be defined in different ways. Furthermore, within a specified problem definition, many choices can still be made regarding which parameters to include in the characterization model and which data to use. This article gives an overview of the problem definition and the choices that have been made when defining the abiotic depletion potentials (ADPs for a characterization model for abiotic resource depletion in LCA. Updates of the ADPs since 2002 are also briefly discussed. Finally, some possible new developments of the impact category of abiotic resource depletion are suggested, such as redefining the depletion problem as a dilution problem. This means taking the reserves in the environment and the economy into account in the reserve parameter and using leakage from the economy, instead of extraction rate, as a dilution parameter.

  20. Is Environmental Impact Assessment fulfilling its potential?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2014-01-01

    fuel with CO2-neutral energy sources. A variety of these projects are subject to environmental impact assessment (EIA), which raises the following questions: What role does an impact assessment play? When is the project environmentally friendly? How are climate change-related impacts assessed......One of the topics receiving much attention in recent years is climate change and the potential of its integration in impact assessment, both in terms of achieving mitigation and adaptation. Renewable energy projects are part of the efforts to mitigate climate change, replacing the use of fossil...... adaptation is absent. Also, the results show an emphasis on positive impacts in the reports, and in a few cases discussions of enhancements. Identification and assessment of negative climate change impacts are less apparent. This leads to a discussion of the results in the light of the purpose of EIA....

  1. Assessment of innovative potential of the region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. Sazonova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The implementation of innovative-oriented processes of transformation of the Russian economy at the current stage of development requires the formation of regional innovation systems that predetermine the growing competitiveness of the national economy in the future. The optimal functioning of the innovation system of the region as the most important link in the national innovation system depends on the availability, condition and level of development of its innovative potential, which in turn determines the economic growth of not only a single region, but the country as a whole. The essence and structure of innovative potential of organizational systems are considered in the article. The main approaches to the definition of the concept of innovative potential and the definition of the content of the concept are analyzed. An approach to the formation of an integrated indicator is proposed. The integrated indicator of the region's innovative potential was calculated using the area diagram method. The values of the innovation potential for the regions of the Central Federal District were calculated and the ranking of the regions was performed in accordance with the final value. Conclusion. To build a model for innovative development of the region, it is necessary to analyze the components of the innovation potential, its evaluation, and a possible development forecast for the coming years. Voronezh, Tula and Kostroma and Belgorod regions have high rates for the Central Federal District. Ryazan, Smolensk and Kostroma oblasts have rather low indicators in comparison with other regions.

  2. Beyond the MEGA BORG: The future of cooperative damage assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt, J.P.; Seiler, R.; Mauseth, G.

    1993-01-01

    Prespill planning and coordination are the major requirements of industry and government to ensure future cooperative natural resource damage assessments (NRDA). Since oil spills most often occur without warning, both parties must be prepared prior to an oil spill into the environment. Federal and State co-trustees should enter into a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to ensure cooperation and coordination among trustees in all NRDA activities. The MOU should provide the framework whereby each trustee's resource interests can be represented. Ideally, MOUs should be prepared during the prespill planning process, although the MEGA BORG MOU was prepared soon after the actual discharge. The establishment of co-trustee working groups will foster the positive working relationships necessary in cooperative NRDAs. The trustees should identify all potential co-trustees in a given area and agree on a mechanism for trustee notification. Criteria for the rapid designation of the Lead Administrative Trustee and approaches for coordination with response agencies and potential responsible parties (PRPs) need to be developed. Most importantly, the trustees should identify PRPs and invite their participation in the prespill planning process

  3. Flow and Noise Control: Review and Assessment of Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Russell H.; Choudhari, Meelan M.; Joslin, Ronald D.

    2002-01-01

    Technologies for developing radically new aerovehicles that would combine quantum leaps in cost, safety, and performance benefits with environmental friendliness have appeared on the horizon. This report provides both an assessment of the current state-of-the-art in flow and noise control and a vision for the potential gains to be made, in terms of performance benefit for civil and military aircraft and a unique potential for noise reduction, via future advances in flow and noise technologies. This report outlines specific areas of research that will enable the breakthroughs necessary to bring this vision to reality. Recent developments in many topics within flow and noise control are reviewed. The flow control overview provides succinct summaries of various approaches for drag reduction and improved maneuvering. Both exterior and interior noise problems are examined, including dominant noise sources, physics of noise generation and propagation, and both established and proposed concepts for noise reduction. Synergy between flow and noise control is a focus and, more broadly, the need to pursue research in a more concurrent approach involving multiple disciplines. Also discussed are emerging technologies such as nanotechnology that may have a significant impact on the progress of flow and noise control.

  4. The future of human rights impact assessments of trade agreements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Walker, S.M.

    2009-01-01

    The Future of Human Rights Impact Assessments of Trade Agreements develops a methodology for human rights impact assessments of trade agreements and considers whether there is any value in using the methodology on a sustained basis to ensure that the human dimensions of international trade are taken

  5. Future and potential spending on health 2015-40

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dieleman, Joseph L.; Campbell, Madeline; Chapin, Abigail; Eldrenkamp, Erika; Fan, Victoria Y.; Haakenstad, Annie; Kates, Jennifer; Li, Zhiyin; Matyasz, Taylor; Micah, Angela; Reynolds, Alex; Sadat, Nafis; Schneider, Matthew T.; Sorensen, Reed; Abbas, Kaja M.; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir; Alam, Khurshid; Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza; Alkerwi, A.; Amini, Erfan; Ammar, Walid; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.; Atey, Tesfay Mehari; Avila-Burgos, Leticia; Awasthi, Ashish; Barac, Aleksandra; Berheto, Tezera Moshago; Beyene, Addisu Shunu; Beyene, Tariku Jibat; Birungi, Charles; Bizuayehu, Habtamu Mellie; Breitborde, Nicholas J.K.; Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero; Castro, Ruben Estanislao; Catalá-López, Ferran; Dalal, Koustuv; Dandona, Lalit; Dharmaratne, Rakhi Dandona Samath D.; Dubey, Manisha; Faro, Andé; Feigl, Andrea B.; Fischer, Florian; Anderson Fitchett, Joseph R.; Foigt, Nataliya; Giref, Ababi Zergaw; Gupta, Rahul; Hamidi, Samer; Harb, Hilda L.; Hay, Simon I.; Hendrie, Delia; Horino, Masako; Jürisson, Mikk; Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B.; Javanbakht, Mehdi; John, Denny; Jonas, Jost B.; Karimi, Seyed M.; Khang, Young Ho; Khubchandani, Jagdish; Kim, Yun Jin; Kinge, Jonas M.; Krohn, Kristopher J.; Kumar, G.A.; Leung, Ricky; Magdy Abd El Razek, Hassan; Magdy Abd El Razek, Mohammed; Majeed, Azeem; Malekzadeh, Reza; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Meretoja, Atte; Miller, Ted R.; Mirrakhimov, Erkin M.; Mohammed, Shafiu; Molla, Gedefaw; Nangia, Vinay; Olgiati, Stefano; Owolabi, Mayowa O.; Patel, Tejas; Paternina Caicedo, Angel J.; Pereira, David M.; Perelman, Julian; Polinder, Suzanne; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rai, Rajesh Kumar; Ram, Usha; Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal; Roba, Hirbo Shore; Savic, Miloje; Sepanlou, Sadaf G.; Ao, Te Braden J.; Tesema, Azeb Gebresilassie; Thomson, Alan J.; Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan; Topor-Madry, Roman; Undurraga, Eduardo A.; Vargas, Veronica; Vasankari, Tommi; Violante, Francesco S.; Wijeratne, Tissa; Xu, Gelin; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Younis, Mustafa Z.; Yu, Chuanhua; Zaidi, Zoubida; Sayed Zaki, El Maysaa; Murray, Christopher J.L.

    2017-01-01

    Background: The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future

  6. Future of computing technology in physics - the potentials and pitfalls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenner, A.E.

    1984-02-01

    The impact of the developments of modern digital computers is discussed, especially with respect to physics research in the future. The effects of large data processing capability and increasing rates at which data can be acquired and processed are considered

  7. Remote Assessment of Lunar Resource Potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, G. Jeffrey

    1992-01-01

    Assessing the resource potential of the lunar surface requires a well-planned program to determine the chemical and mineralogical composition of the Moon's surface at a range of scales. The exploration program must include remote sensing measurements (from both Earth's surface and lunar orbit), robotic in situ analysis of specific places, and eventually, human field work by trained geologists. Remote sensing data is discussed. Resource assessment requires some idea of what resources will be needed. Studies thus far have concentrated on oxygen and hydrogen production for propellant and life support, He-3 for export as fuel for nuclear fusion reactors, and use of bulk regolith for shielding and construction materials. The measurement requirements for assessing these resources are given and discussed briefly.

  8. Future of computing technology in physics - the potentials and pitfalls

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brenner, A.E.

    1984-02-01

    The impact of the developments of modern digital computers is discussed, especially with respect to physics research in the future. The effects of large data processing capability and increasing rates at which data can be acquired and processed are considered. (GHT)

  9. Future bio-energy potential under various natural constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Vliet, Jasper van; Stehfest, Elke

    2009-01-01

    Potentials for bio-energy have been estimated earlier on the basis of estimates of potentially available land, excluding certain types of land use or land cover (land required for food production and forests). In this paper, we explore how such estimates may be influenced by other factors such as land degradation, water scarcity and biodiversity concerns. Our analysis indicates that of the original bio-energy potential estimate of 150, 80 EJ occurs in areas classified as from mild to severe land degradation, water stress, or with high biodiversity value. Yield estimates were also found to have a significant impact on potential estimates. A further 12.5% increase in global yields would lead to an increase in bio-energy potential of about 50%. Changes in bio-energy potential are shown to have a direct impact on bio-energy use in the energy model TIMER, although the relevant factor is the bio-energy potential at different cost levels and not the overall potential.

  10. GIS Based Analysis of future district heating potential in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steffen; Möller, Bernd

    2012-01-01

    and their heat demand has in recent years been assessed in a heat atlas including all buildings in Denmark. The focus in this article is to further develop a method for assessing the costs associated with supplying these buildings with DH. The analysis takes departure in the existing DH areas in Denmark...

  11. Assessing the proarrhythmic potential of drugs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Morten Bækgaard; Matz, Jørgen; Volders, Paul G A

    2006-01-01

    Torsades de pointes (TdP) is a potentially lethal cardiac arrhythmia that can occur as an unwanted adverse effect of various pharmacological therapies. Before a drug is approved for marketing, its effects on cardiac repolarisation are examined clinically and experimentally. This paper expresses...... the opinion that effects on repolarisation duration cannot directly be translated to risk of proarrhythmia. Current safety assessments of drugs only involve repolarisation assays, however the proarrhythmic profile can only be determined in the predisposed model. The availability of these proarrhythmic animal...... surrogate parameters possessing predictive power of TdP arrhythmia are reviewed. As these parameters are not developed to finalisation, any meaningful study of the proarrhythmic potential of a new drug will include evaluation in an integrated model of TdP arrhythmia....

  12. Current status and future potential for advanced volume reduction technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rutland, L.; Naughton, M.D.; Papaiya, N.C.

    1984-01-01

    With escalating costs for disposal of low-level radioactive waste (LLW) from nuclear power plants, and the possibility of unavailability of disposal space, some nuclear power utilities responded by commiting to implementing advanced volume reduction (VR) systems. This paper presents recent experience to implement advanced volume reduction technologies; their performance and typical operating and capital costs. This experience in the light of current economic conditions may enable us to predict the direction that future advanced VR technology commitments is taking

  13. Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagre, Daniel B.; Pederson, Gregory; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Prato, Tony; Qui, Zeyuan; Williams, Jimmie R.

    2010-01-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting

  14. Potential Economic Benefits of Adapting Agricultural Production Systems to Future Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Williams, Jimmy R.

    2010-03-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to

  15. Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E; Williams, Jimmy R

    2010-03-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO(2) emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs

  16. Is Past Performance a Good Predictor of Future Potential?

    OpenAIRE

    Rao, T. V.; Juneja Mohit; Chawla Nandini

    2007-01-01

    Both assessment centres and 360 degree feedback have become very popular new era HR tools. With human resources gaining strategic importance combined with raising costs of talented managers and their scarce availability, organizations are left with no alternatives than identifying and grooming talent from within. This has led to the increased use of assessment centres and 360 degree tools for developing leadership competencies. Some times 360 degree feedback is used as tool for career develop...

  17. High efficiency USC power plant - present status and future potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blum, R. [Faelleskemikerne I/S Fynsvaerket (Denmark); Hald, J. [Elsam/Elkraft/TU Denmark (Denmark)

    1998-12-31

    Increasing demand for energy production with low impact on the environment and minimised fuel consumption can be met with high efficient coal fired power plants with advanced steam parameters. An important key to this improvement is the development of high temperature materials with optimised mechanical strength. Based on the results of more than ten years of development a coal fired power plant with an efficiency above 50 % can now be realised. Future developments focus on materials which enable an efficiency of 52-55 %. (orig.) 25 refs.

  18. High efficiency USC power plant - present status and future potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blum, R [Faelleskemikerne I/S Fynsvaerket (Denmark); Hald, J [Elsam/Elkraft/TU Denmark (Denmark)

    1999-12-31

    Increasing demand for energy production with low impact on the environment and minimised fuel consumption can be met with high efficient coal fired power plants with advanced steam parameters. An important key to this improvement is the development of high temperature materials with optimised mechanical strength. Based on the results of more than ten years of development a coal fired power plant with an efficiency above 50 % can now be realised. Future developments focus on materials which enable an efficiency of 52-55 %. (orig.) 25 refs.

  19. Imagining flood futures: risk assessment and management in practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Stuart N; Landström, Catharina; Whatmore, Sarah J

    2011-05-13

    The mantra that policy and management should be 'evidence-based' is well established. Less so are the implications that follow from 'evidence' being predictions of the future (forecasts, scenarios, horizons) even though such futures define the actions taken today to make the future sustainable. Here, we consider the tension between 'evidence', reliable because it is observed, and predictions of the future, unobservable in conventional terms. For flood risk management in England and Wales, we show that futures are actively constituted, and so imagined, through 'suites of practices' entwining policy, management and scientific analysis. Management has to constrain analysis because of the many ways in which flood futures can be constructed, but also because of commitment to an accounting calculus, which requires risk to be expressed in monetary terms. It is grounded in numerical simulation, undertaken by scientific consultants who follow policy/management guidelines that define the futures to be considered. Historical evidence is needed to deal with process and parameter uncertainties and the futures imagined are tied to pasts experienced. Reliance on past events is a challenge for prediction, given changing probability (e.g. climate change) and consequence (e.g. development on floodplains). So, risk management allows some elements of risk analysis to become unstable (notably in relation to climate change) but forces others to remain stable (e.g. invoking regulation to prevent inappropriate floodplain development). We conclude that the assumed separation of risk assessment and management is false because the risk calculation has to be defined by management. Making this process accountable requires openness about the procedures that make flood risk analysis more (or less) reliable to those we entrust to produce and act upon them such that, unlike the 'pseudosciences', they can be put to the test of public interrogation by those who have to live with their consequences

  20. Biofuel initiatives in Japan: Strategies, policies, and future potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsumoto, Naoko; Sano, Daisuke; Elder, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Japan has developed a variety of national strategies and plans related to biofuels which address four main policy objectives, including reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, energy security, rural development, and realisation of a recycle-based society. This paper reviews these national strategies and plans as well as associated implementing policies, and discusses the extent to which these objectives may be achieved. This paper found that the long-term potential of biofuels to contribute to GHG reduction goals will depend not only on the rates of technological development of the second generation biofuels but also on the development of other advanced vehicles. In the medium term, the potential contribution of biofuels to rural development and realising a recycle-based society could become significant depending on the progress of technology for both second generation biofuel production and the collection and transportation of their feedstocks. The potential contribution of biofuels to Japan's energy security is constrained by the availability of imports and the potential of domestic production. (author)

  1. Potential remobilization of belowground permafrost carbon under future global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    P. Kuhry; E. Dorrepaal; G. Hugelius; E.A.G. Schuur; C. Tarnocai

    2010-01-01

    Research on permafrost carbon has dramatically increased in the past few years. A new estimate of 1672 Pg C of belowground organic carbon in the northern circumpolar permafrost region more than doubles the previous value and highlights the potential role of permafrost carbon in the Earth System. Uncertainties in this new estimate remain due to relatively few available...

  2. GIS based analysis of future district heating potential in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steffen; Möller, Bernd

    2013-01-01

    in Denmark have been mapped in a heat atlas which includes all buildings and their heat demands. This article focuses on developing a method for assessing the costs associated with supplying these buildings with DH. The analysis is based on the existing DH areas in Denmark. By finding the heat production...

  3. Future potential country doctor: the perspectives of German GPs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natanzon, Iris; Szecsenyi, Joachim; Ose, Dominik; Joos, Stefanie

    2010-01-01

    There is a shortage of general practitioners (GPs) in many countries, especially in rural areas. There are several reasons for this shortage. Over the last decade, fewer medical students in Germany have decided to work in patient care, even fewer in general practice and fewer still in general practice in rural areas. The aim of this study was to explore the 'pros and cons' of GPs' work in rural areas and to identify from GPs' perspective possible measures for counteracting future GP shortages. Within a qualitative approach, 16 semi-structured interviews were conducted with GPs. Data analysis was carried out using qualitative content analysis. The results were categorized into three main inductively-derived categories: personal, professional and regional/structural level. A higher level of self-confidence and a higher 'feel-good' factor due to GPs originating from rural areas were positive aspects at the personal level. Regarding the professional level, a low level of competition and varied work made a GP's profession attractive in rural areas. Negative aspects were mostly apparent at the regional/structural level, such a low earnings and few leisure facilities. Measures to counter the lack of GPs in rural areas were explored on all three levels: on the personal level, more optimism and resulting satisfaction on the part of doctors in rural areas could be improved by enhancing the benefits of being a doctor in a rural area. Regarding the professional level, more group practices are required to make working as a GP in a rural area more attractive. At a regional/structural level, young physicians who originate from rural areas should be recruited to work in rural areas. Financial incentives are regarded as not sufficient to attract enough young physicians to open practices in rural areas. Future action will be required at the personal, professional and regional/structural levels. The origin of medical students (urban or rural) should be considered a relevant

  4. Inertial confinement fusion: present status and future potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hogan, W.J.

    1984-01-01

    Power from inertial confinement fusion holds much promise for society. This paper points out many of the benefits relative to combustion of hydrocarbon fuels and fission power. Potential problems are also identified and put in perspective. The progress toward achieving inertial fusion power is described and results of recent work at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory are presented. Key phenomenological uncertainties are described and experimental goals for the Nova laser system are given. Several ICF reactor designs are discussed

  5. Back to the Future: Personality and Assessment and Personality Development

    OpenAIRE

    Roberts, Brent W.

    2009-01-01

    In this essay I consider the future of personality development in light of the past effects of Personality and Assessment on the field of personality in general and personality development in particular. The essay is organized around 1) the effect of Mischel's book on the foundational theories informing personality development; 2) definitions of personality traits; 3) an alternative model of personality traits, described as the sociogenomic model of personality traits, that can bridge the div...

  6. Technical Assessments of Future European Space Transportation Options

    OpenAIRE

    Sippel, Martin; van Foreest, Arnold; Dutheil, Jean-Philippe; Philip, Peter

    2007-01-01

    The paper describes some of the most recent activities in Germany in the technical assessment of future European launcher architecture. In focus is a joint effort of DLR-SART with German launcher industry in the definition of a next generation upper-medium class expendable TSTO with an initial operational capability after 2020. Involved companies are EADS astrium and MT Aerospace. This DLR-agency funded study WOTAN investigates fully cryogenic launchers as well as those with a com...

  7. THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF TEHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT ON FUTURE JOBS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ŞTEFAN COSMIN-ALEXANDRU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Technological developments in the last decades have reached unbelievable levels, what was once the domain of science fiction movies is now a reality, and this developments have left few areas of human life unchanged. In this paper we aim to explore the changes that technology brought to the way people work and, especially to the way people will work. While we acknowledge that any prediction about the future is almost always proved wrong from the get go, we think that the importance of the subject warrants the risk. The paper draws its routes from some of the most influential theories about how technology will impact the way people work and is main objective is to spark a conversation about the merits of lack thereof that they contain. It is by no means an extensive work, but rather the beginning of a research focus that will, hopefully bring new insights in the above mentioned field. For the sake of convenience we have grouped the predictions in three categories: “Business as usual”, “Lateral developments” and “All bets are off” based on how profound the change would be. Each of this levels offers different benefits, as well as different challenges, our hope is that throw a process of thorough consideration solutions can be generated to maximize the former while minimizing the latter.

  8. Basic mechanisms of gabitril (tiagabine) and future potential developments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meldrum, B S; Chapman, A G

    1999-01-01

    Gabitril (tiagabine) is a potent selective inhibitor of the principal neuronal gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) transporter (GAT-1) in the cortex and hippocampus. By slowing the reuptake of synaptically-released GABA, it prolongs inhibitory postsynaptic potentials. In animal models of epilepsy, tiagabine is particularly effective against kindled (limbic) seizures and against reflexly-induced generalized convulsive seizures. These data are predictive of its efficacy in complex partial seizures in humans. Possible clinical applications outside the field of epilepsy include bipolar disorder and pain.

  9. Combined potential of future long-baseline and reactor experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huber, P.; Lindner, M.; Rolinec, M.; Schwetz, T.; Winter, W.

    2005-01-01

    We investigate the determination of neutrino oscillation parameters by experiments within the next ten years. The potential of conventional beam experiments (MINOS, ICARUS, OPERA), superbeam experiments (T2K, NOνA), and reactor experiments (D-CHOOZ) to improve the precision on the 'atmospheric' parameters Δm 31 2 , θ 23 , as well as the sensitivity to θ 13 are discussed. Further, we comment on the possibility to determine the leptonic CP-phase and the neutrino mass hierarchy if θ 13 turns out to be large

  10. Postactivation potentiation biases maximal isometric strength assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Leonardo Coelho Rabello; Oliveira, Felipe Bruno Dias; Oliveira, Thiago Pires; Assumpção, Claudio de Oliveira; Greco, Camila Coelho; Cardozo, Adalgiso Croscato; Denadai, Benedito Sérgio

    2014-01-01

    Postactivation potentiation (PAP) is known to enhance force production. Maximal isometric strength assessment protocols usually consist of two or more maximal voluntary isometric contractions (MVCs). The objective of this study was to determine if PAP would influence isometric strength assessment. Healthy male volunteers (n = 23) performed two five-second MVCs separated by a 180-seconds interval. Changes in isometric peak torque (IPT), time to achieve it (tPTI), contractile impulse (CI), root mean square of the electromyographic signal during PTI (RMS), and rate of torque development (RTD), in different intervals, were measured. Significant increases in IPT (240.6 ± 55.7 N·m versus 248.9 ± 55.1 N·m), RTD (746 ± 152 N·m·s(-1) versus 727 ± 158 N·m·s(-1)), and RMS (59.1 ± 12.2% RMSMAX  versus 54.8 ± 9.4% RMSMAX) were found on the second MVC. tPTI decreased significantly on the second MVC (2373 ± 1200 ms versus 2784 ± 1226 ms). We conclude that a first MVC leads to PAP that elicits significant enhancements in strength-related variables of a second MVC performed 180 seconds later. If disconsidered, this phenomenon might bias maximal isometric strength assessment, overestimating some of these variables.

  11. Assessment of present and future large-scale semiconductor detector systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spieler, H.G.; Haller, E.E.

    1984-11-01

    The performance of large-scale semiconductor detector systems is assessed with respect to their theoretical potential and to the practical limitations imposed by processing techniques, readout electronics and radiation damage. In addition to devices which detect reaction products directly, the analysis includes photodetectors for scintillator arrays. Beyond present technology we also examine currently evolving structures and techniques which show potential for producing practical devices in the foreseeable future

  12. Residential energy efficiency: Progress since 1973 and future potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenfeld, Arthur H.

    1985-11-01

    Today's 85 million U.S. homes use 100 billion of fuel and electricity (1150/home). If their energy intensity (resource energy/ft2) were still frozen at 1973 levels, they would use 18% more. With well-insulated houses, need for space heat is vanishing. Superinsulated Saskatchewan homes spend annually only 270 for space heat, 150 for water heat, and 400 for appliances, yet they cost only 2000±1000 more than conventional new homes. The concept of Cost of Conserved Energy (CCE) is used to rank conservation technologies for existing and new homes and appliances, and to develop supply curves of conserved energy and a least cost scenario. Calculations are calibrated with the BECA and other data bases. By limiting investments in efficiency to those whose CCE is less than current fuel and electricity prices, the potential residential plus commercial energy use in 2000 AD drops to half of that estimated by DOE, and the number of power plants needed drops by 200. For the whole buildings sector, potential savings by 2000 are 8 Mbod (worth 50B/year), at an average CCE of 10/barrel.

  13. Modeling the yield potential of dryland canola under current and future climates in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    George, N.; Kaffka, S.; Beeck, C.; Bucaram, S.; Zhang, J.

    2012-12-01

    Models predict that the climate of California will become hotter, drier and more variable under future climate change scenarios. This will lead to both increased irrigation demand and reduced irrigation water availability. In addition, it is predicted that most common Californian crops will suffer a concomitant decline in productivity. To remain productive and economically viable, future agricultural systems will need to have greater water use efficiency, tolerance of high temperatures, and tolerance of more erratic temperature and rainfall patterns. Canola (Brassica napus) is the third most important oilseed globally, supporting large and well-established agricultural industries in Canada, Europe and Australia. It is an agronomically useful and economically valuable crop, with multiple end markets, that can be grown in California as a dryland winter rotation with little to no irrigation demand. This gives canola great potential as a new crop for Californian farmers both now and as the climate changes. Given practical and financial limitations it is not always possible to immediately or widely evaluate a crop in a new region. Crop production models are therefore valuable tools for assessing the potential of new crops, better targeting further field research, and refining research questions. APSIM is a modular modeling framework developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia, it combines biophysical and management modules to simulate cropping systems. This study was undertaken to examine the yield potential of Australian canola varieties having different water requirements and maturity classes in California using APSIM. The objective of the work was to identify the agricultural regions of California most ideally suited to the production of Australian cultivars of canola and to simulate the production of canola in these regions to estimate yield-potential. This will establish whether the introduction and in-field evaluation of better

  14. Utilization of Used Nuclear Fuel in a Potential Future US Fuel Cycle Scenario - 13499

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worrall, Andrew [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, P.O. BOX 2008 MS6172, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831-6172 (United States)

    2013-07-01

    from the FRs due to time in the core, cooling time, reprocessing, and re-fabrication time is built into the analysis, along with impacts in delays and other key assumptions and sensitivities have been investigated. The results of this assessment highlight how the UNF from future reactors (LWRs and FRs) and the resulting fissile materials (U and Pu) from reprocessing can be effectively utilized, and show that the timings of future nuclear programs are key considerations (both for reactors and fuel cycle facilities). The analysis also highlights how the timings are relevant to managing the UNF and how such an analysis can therefore assist in informing the potential future R and D strategy and needs of the US fuel cycle programs and reactor technology. (authors)

  15. Utilization of Used Nuclear Fuel in a Potential Future US Fuel Cycle Scenario - 13499

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worrall, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    from the FRs due to time in the core, cooling time, reprocessing, and re-fabrication time is built into the analysis, along with impacts in delays and other key assumptions and sensitivities have been investigated. The results of this assessment highlight how the UNF from future reactors (LWRs and FRs) and the resulting fissile materials (U and Pu) from reprocessing can be effectively utilized, and show that the timings of future nuclear programs are key considerations (both for reactors and fuel cycle facilities). The analysis also highlights how the timings are relevant to managing the UNF and how such an analysis can therefore assist in informing the potential future R and D strategy and needs of the US fuel cycle programs and reactor technology. (authors)

  16. Communicating uncertainties in assessments of future sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wikman-Svahn, P.

    2013-12-01

    How uncertainty should be managed and communicated in policy-relevant scientific assessments is directly connected to the role of science and the responsibility of scientists. These fundamentally philosophical issues influence how scientific assessments are made and how scientific findings are communicated to policymakers. It is therefore of high importance to discuss implicit assumptions and value judgments that are made in policy-relevant scientific assessments. The present paper examines these issues for the case of scientific assessments of future sea level rise. The magnitude of future sea level rise is very uncertain, mainly due to poor scientific understanding of all physical mechanisms affecting the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, which together hold enough land-based ice to raise sea levels more than 60 meters if completely melted. There has been much confusion from policymakers on how different assessments of future sea levels should be interpreted. Much of this confusion is probably due to how uncertainties are characterized and communicated in these assessments. The present paper draws on the recent philosophical debate on the so-called "value-free ideal of science" - the view that science should not be based on social and ethical values. Issues related to how uncertainty is handled in scientific assessments are central to this debate. This literature has much focused on how uncertainty in data, parameters or models implies that choices have to be made, which can have social consequences. However, less emphasis has been on how uncertainty is characterized when communicating the findings of a study, which is the focus of the present paper. The paper argues that there is a tension between on the one hand the value-free ideal of science and on the other hand usefulness for practical applications in society. This means that even if the value-free ideal could be upheld in theory, by carefully constructing and hedging statements characterizing

  17. Environmental assessment of current and future Swiss electricity supply options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauer, Christian; Heck, Thomas; Hirschberg, Stefan; Dones, Roberto

    2008-01-01

    Options for near future electricity supply are currently one of the main topics in the Swiss energy policy debate. Contrary to the total energy demand per capita the trend of rising electricity demand per capita is still visible. This paper presents a comparative environmental assessment of a broad portfolio of current and future electricity generation technologies including nuclear, fossil, and renewable power plants with their associated energy chains. The evaluation, based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), is carried out quantifying ten different environmental indicators, grouped in the categories greenhouse gas emissions, consumption of resources, waste, and impact on ecosystems. Hydropower shows minimal environmental impacts for all indicators; for other systems, the picture is diverse. The comparison of non-aggregated indicators allows preliminary conclusions about the environmental performance of the assessed systems. Establishing ranking of technologies calls for aggregating the indicators, which can be done by weighting of the indicators based on individual or stakeholder group preferences, either within a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework or with Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methods. Calculating total costs of electricity by adding external costs due to impacts on human health and ecosystems to the electricity production costs poses another option for ranking of technologies. (authors)

  18. Issues in contemporary and potential future molecular diagnostics for dengue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekaran, Shamala Devi; Soe, Hui Jen

    2017-03-01

    Dengue has been the most common arbovirus infection worldwide with 2.5 billion people living in over 100 endemic tropical and subtropical regions. Due to the high number of asymptomatic cases and the signs and symptoms being rather unspecific, dengue cases are often under-reported and might influence dengue surveillance programs. Therefore, a rapid, easy to use, inexpensive, and highly sensitive and specific diagnostic tool is essential for early and accurate diagnosis to ease the clinical management of patients as well as for the development of new interventions. Areas covered: This report discusses the contemporary dengue diagnostic tool, mainly from the aspect of molecular diagnosis where an overview of several nuclei acid amplification tests has been included. Potential molecular diagnostic tools such as biosensor and microarray are also discussed in this report. Expert commentary: Rapidness and accuracy in terms of sensitivity and specificity is imperative in dengue diagnosis for both clinical management and surveillance of dengue to ensure early treatment and corrective control measures can be carried out. In the next five years it is expected that there will be newer tests developed using not only the lateral flow techniques but more specifically biosensors and nanotechnology. These new technologies will have to be validated with the appropriate number and category of samples and to address the issue of cross-reactivity.

  19. Bacillus As Potential Probiotics: Status, Concerns, and Future Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fouad M. F. Elshaghabee

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Spore-forming bacilli are being explored for the production and preservation of food for many centuries. The inherent ability of production of large number of secretory proteins, enzymes, antimicrobial compounds, vitamins, and carotenoids specifies the importance of bacilli in food chain. Additionally, Bacillus spp. are gaining interest in human health related functional food research coupled with their enhanced tolerance and survivability under hostile environment of gastrointestinal tract. Besides, bacilli are more stable during processing and storage of food and pharmaceutical preparations, making them more suitable candidate for health promoting formulations. Further, Bacillus strains also possess biotherapeutic potential which is connected with their ability to interact with the internal milieu of the host by producing variety of antimicrobial peptides and small extracellular effector molecules. Nonetheless, with proposed scientific evidences, commercial probiotic supplements, and functional foods comprising of Bacillus spp. had not gained much credential in general population, since the debate over probiotic vs pathogen tag of Bacillus in the research and production terrains is confusing consumers. Hence, it’s important to clearly understand the phenotypic and genotypic characteristics of selective beneficial Bacillus spp. and their substantiation with those having GRAS status, to reach a consensus over the same. This review highlights the probiotic candidature of spore forming Bacillus spp. and presents an overview of the proposed health benefits, including application in food and pharmaceutical industry. Moreover, the growing need to evaluate the safety of individual Bacillus strains as well as species on a case by case basis and necessity of more profound analysis for the selection and identification of Bacillus probiotic candidates are also taken into consideration.

  20. Potential of light water reactors for future nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gueldner, R.

    2003-01-01

    Energy consumption worldwide is going to increase further in the next few decades. Reliable supplies of electricity can be achieved only by centralized power plant structures. In this scenario, nuclear power plants are going to play a leading role as reliable and competitive plants, also under deregulated market conditions. Today, light water reactors have achieved a leading position, both technically and economically, contributing 85% to worldwide electricity generation in nuclear plants. They will continue to be a proven technology in power generation. In many countries, activities therefore are concentrated on extending the service life of plants beyond a period of forty years. New nuclear generating capacities are expected to be created and added from the end of this decade onward. Most of this capacity will be in light water reactors. The concepts of third-generation reactors will meet all economic and technical safety requirements of the 21st century and will offer considerable potential for further development. Probably some thirty years from now, fourth-generation nuclear power plants will be ready for commercial application. These plants will penetrate especially new sectors of the energy markets. Public acceptance of new nuclear power plants is not a matter of reactor lines, provided that safety requirements are met. The important issue is the management of radioactive waste. The construction of new nuclear power plants in Western Europe and North America mainly hinges on the ability to explain to the public that there is a need for new plants and that nuclear power is fundamental to assuring sustainable development. (orig.)

  1. THE ASSESSMENT OF CYBERBULLYING: THE PRESENT SITUATION AND FUTURE CHALLENGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Lucas-Molina

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the last decade there has been a significant increase in the interest of the educational and scientific community on cyberbullying, a new form of peer abuse and intimidation. Despite the widespread proliferation of studies and assessment tools on the phenomenon, there are still major conceptual and methodological gaps. This paper offers a comprehensive and updated review of the results of research on the definition of the construct, its prevalence and its impact on the people involved. Finally, it focuses specifically on the assessment of the construct and provides a brief review of the general and psychometric characteristics of the instruments used in some of the most relevant national and international studies conducted on the subject. This work places special emphasis on the present and future challenges and concludes with a number of general recommendations intended to guide the correct selection and/or construction of assessment instruments in this field of study.

  2. The perceptions of creativity and creative potentials of future kindergarten and class teachers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milovanović Radmila

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Research studies on teaching practice have shown that not enough attention is paid to the problem of children’s creativity development in our schools in spite of the fact that the development of creative potentials in preschool institutions and school figures as one of the priority educational tasks. The perceptions of creativity and creative potentials of future kindergarten and class teachers can serve as an important basis for encouraging the development of their professional competences. This research was aimed at examining students’ knowledge and beliefs on creativity, obtaining self-assessment of their own creative potentials and determining the level of expression of students’ creativity based on their abilities of creative problem-solving. The sample included the students of the Faculty of Pedagogical Sciences in Jagodina and Teacher Training College in Vranje (N=300. For examining students’ creative potentials we used the Epstein Creativity Competences Inventory and a version of the Saugstad & Rahaim Problem Solving Tests. Research results have confirmed that students possess the knowledge and the beliefs compatible with the modern scientific beliefs on creativity. They assess their own creative potentials as very high and they do possess them. The obtained results can serve as a better foundation for working with students towards fostering the development of their creative potentials and professional competences. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 179034: Od podsticanja inicijative, saradnje, stvaralaštva u obrazovanju do novih uloga i identiteta u društvu i br. 47008: Unapređivanje kvaliteta i dostupnosti obrazovanja u procesima modernizacije Srbije

  3. Assessment of potential adjuvanticity of Cry proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Saurabh S; Barnett, Brian; Doerrer, Nancy G; Glenn, Kevin; Herman, Rod A; Herouet-Guicheney, Corinne; Hunst, Penny; Kough, John; Ladics, Gregory S; McClain, Scott; Papineni, Sabitha; Poulsen, Lars K; Rascle, Jean-Baptiste; Tao, Ai-Lin; van Ree, Ronald; Ward, Jason; Bowman, Christal C

    2016-08-01

    Genetically modified (GM) crops have achieved success in the marketplace and their benefits extend beyond the overall increase in harvest yields to include lowered use of insecticides and decreased carbon dioxide emissions. The most widely grown GM crops contain gene/s for targeted insect protection, herbicide tolerance, or both. Plant expression of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) crystal (Cry) insecticidal proteins have been the primary way to impart insect resistance in GM crops. Although deemed safe by regulatory agencies globally, previous studies have been the basis for discussions around the potential immuno-adjuvant effects of Cry proteins. These studies had limitations in study design. The studies used animal models with extremely high doses of Cry proteins, which when given using the ig route were co-administered with an adjuvant. Although the presumption exists that Cry proteins may have immunostimulatory activity and therefore an adjuvanticity risk, the evidence shows that Cry proteins are expressed at very low levels in GM crops and are unlikely to function as adjuvants. This conclusion is based on critical review of the published literature on the effects of immunomodulation by Cry proteins, the history of safe use of Cry proteins in foods, safety of the Bt donor organisms, and pre-market weight-of-evidence-based safety assessments for GM crops. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Future technology in cochlear implants: assessing the benefit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, Robert J S

    2011-05-01

    ); automated fitting; and reduction in outcome variability. This paper provides examples of relevant potential future technologies that can be applied to reach these goals. In the quest for better outcomes, future technology must deliver improved reliability and usability for both clinicians and recipients that does not compromise safety and is affordable. One of the challenges related to the introduction of new technologies is the 'classification' of CI systems and the framework under which sufficient change and increased benefit can be demonstrated to establish a claim of 'new generation CI' and hence increased reimbursement from third-party payers. Significant improvements in hearing outcomes and quality of life associated with CI design changes are difficult to measure, particularly when there is such dramatic benefit from the intervention of cochlear implantation from the individual's perspective. Manufacturers and clinicians need to be objective and undertake appropriate safety studies and long-term and multi-centre clinical trials to ensure that the introduction of new technology is both safe and effective and supported by health systems worldwide.

  5. AL Qaeda, Trends in Terrorism and Future Potentialities: An Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-05-01

    constituency? Has it become a franchise operation with like-minded local representatives independently advancing the parent organization’s goals or does it...More than 600,000 Iraqi children have died due to lack of food and medicine and as result of the unjustifiable aggression (sanction) imposed on Iraq and...attack on the New York City subway ; the July 4 shooting at Los Angeles International Airport by a naturalized American-born who had emigrated from

  6. Environmental Assessment of Possible Future Waste Management Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yevgeniya Arushanyan

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Waste management has developed in many countries and will continue to do so. Changes towards increased recovery of resources in order to meet climate targets and for society to transition to a circular economy are important driving forces. Scenarios are important tools for planning and assessing possible future developments and policies. This paper presents a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA model for environmental assessments of scenarios and waste management policy instruments. It is unique by including almost all waste flows in a country and also allow for including waste prevention. The results show that the environmental impacts from future waste management scenarios in Sweden can differ a lot. Waste management will continue to contribute with environmental benefits, but less so in the more sustainable future scenarios, since the surrounding energy and transportation systems will be less polluting and also because less waste will be produced. Valuation results indicate that climate change, human toxicity and resource depletion are the most important environmental impact categories for the Swedish waste management system. Emissions of fossil CO2 from waste incineration will continue to be a major source of environmental impacts in these scenarios. The model is used for analyzing environmental impacts of several policy instruments including weight based collection fee, incineration tax, a resource tax and inclusion of waste in a green electricity certification system. The effect of the studied policy instruments in isolation are in most cases limited, suggesting that stronger policy instruments as well as combinations are necessary to reach policy goals as set out in for example the EU action plan on circular economy.

  7. ASSESSMENT OF QUALITY OF LIFE: PRESENT AND FUTURE METHODOLOGICAL CHALLENGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel Benítez

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The growing importance of quality of life in diverse domains, such as health, school performance and social participation, has led to the development of new conceptualisations and assessments of the construct. This diversity of perspectives brings about many benefits, but it also creates an obstacle for the formulation of a single unifying definition of the construct and, therefore, an agreed instrument or assessment framework. The aim of this study is to discuss the current methodological challenges in the measurement of quality of life. Firstly, we provide a brief description of the construct as defined in various areas, then we examine the new methodological developments and different applications. We also present an overview of the different possibilities for future developments in defining and measuring quality of life in national and international studies.

  8. Regional landslide hazard assessment in a deep uncertain future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Susana; Holcombe, Liz; Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

    2017-04-01

    Landslides have many negative economic and societal impacts, including the potential for significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. These risks are likely to be exacerbated in the future by a combination of climatic and socio-economic factors. Climate change, for example, is expected to increase the occurrence of rainfall-triggered landslides, because a warmer atmosphere tends to produce more high intensity rainfall events. Prediction of future changes in rainfall, however, is subject to high levels of uncertainty, making it challenging for decision-makers to identify the areas and populations that are most vulnerable to landslide hazards. In this study, we demonstrate how a physically-based model - the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model (CHASM) - can be used together with Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to explore the underlying factors controlling the spatial distribution of landslide risks across a regional landscape, while also accounting for deep uncertainty around future rainfall conditions. We demonstrate how GSA can used to analyse CHASM which in turn represents the spatial variability of hillslope characteristics in the study region, while accounting for other uncertainties. Results are presented in the form of landslide hazard maps, utilising high-resolution digital elevation datasets for a case study in St Lucia in the Caribbean. Our findings about spatial landslide hazard drivers have important implications for data collection approaches and for long-term decision-making about land management practices.

  9. The Future of Exposure Assessment: Perspectives from the ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The British Occupational Hygiene Society, in collaboration with the Institute of Occupational Medicine, the University of Manchester, the UK Health and Safety Executive, and the University of Aberdeen hosted the 7th International Conference on the Science of Exposure Assessment (X2012) on 2 July–5 July 2012 in Edinburgh, UK. The conference ended with a special session at which invited speakers from government, industry, independent research institutes, and academia were asked to reflect on the conference and discuss what may now constitute the important highlights or drivers of future exposure assessment research. This article summarizes these discussions with respect to current and future technical and methodological developments. For the exposure science community to continue to have an impact in protecting public health, additional efforts need to be made to improve partnerships and cross-disciplinary collaborations, although it is equally important to ensure that the traditional occupational exposure themes are still covered as these issues are becoming increasingly important in the developing world. To facilitate this the ‘X’ conferences should continue to retain a holistic approach to occupational and non-occupational exposures and should actively pursue collaborations with other disciplines and professional organizations to increase the presence of consumer and environmental exposure scientists. The National Exposure Research Laboratory′s (NERL′

  10. Cell transformation assays for prediction of carcinogenic potential: state of the science and future research needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creton, Stuart; Aardema, Marilyn J.; Carmichael, Paul L.; Harvey, James S.; Martin, Francis L.; Newbold, Robert F.; O’Donovan, Michael R.; Pant, Kamala; Poth, Albrecht; Sakai, Ayako; Sasaki, Kiyoshi; Scott, Andrew D.; Schechtman, Leonard M.; Shen, Rhine R.; Tanaka, Noriho; Yasaei, Hemad

    2012-01-01

    Cell transformation assays (CTAs) have long been proposed as in vitro methods for the identification of potential chemical carcinogens. Despite showing good correlation with rodent bioassay data, concerns over the subjective nature of using morphological criteria for identifying transformed cells and a lack of understanding of the mechanistic basis of the assays has limited their acceptance for regulatory purposes. However, recent drivers to find alternative carcinogenicity assessment methodologies, such as the Seventh Amendment to the EU Cosmetics Directive, have fuelled renewed interest in CTAs. Research is currently ongoing to improve the objectivity of the assays, reveal the underlying molecular changes leading to transformation and explore the use of novel cell types. The UK NC3Rs held an international workshop in November 2010 to review the current state of the art in this field and provide directions for future research. This paper outlines the key points highlighted at this meeting. PMID:21852270

  11. How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts? Using the Quaternary to assess future reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Blois, Jessica L; Williams, John W; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Maguire, Kaitlin C; Lorenz, David J

    2018-03-23

    Future climates are projected to be highly novel relative to recent climates. Climate novelty challenges models that correlate ecological patterns to climate variables and then use these relationships to forecast ecological responses to future climate change. Here, we quantify the magnitude and ecological significance of future climate novelty by comparing it to novel climates over the past 21,000 years in North America. We then use relationships between model performance and climate novelty derived from the fossil pollen record from eastern North America to estimate the expected decrease in predictive skill of ecological forecasting models as future climate novelty increases. We show that, in the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) and by late 21st century, future climate novelty is similar to or higher than peak levels of climate novelty over the last 21,000 years. The accuracy of ecological forecasting models is projected to decline steadily over the coming decades in response to increasing climate novelty, although models that incorporate co-occurrences among species may retain somewhat higher predictive skill. In addition to quantifying future climate novelty in the context of late Quaternary climate change, this work underscores the challenges of making reliable forecasts to an increasingly novel future, while highlighting the need to assess potential avenues for improvement, such as increased reliance on geological analogs for future novel climates and improving existing models by pooling data through time and incorporating assemblage-level information. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Aquifer Characterization and Groundwater Potential Assessment

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Timothy Ademakinwa

    Keywords: Aquifer Characterization, Groundwater Potential, Electrical Resistivity, Lithologic Logs ... State Water Corporation currently cannot meet the daily water ... METHOD OF STUDY ... sections which were constrained with the available.

  13. Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D. Levitt

    2004-11-09

    The purpose of this model report is to document the infiltration model used to estimate upper-bound, mean, and lower-bound spatially-distributed average annual net infiltration rates for present-day and potential future climates at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Net infiltration is the component of infiltrated precipitation, snowmelt, or surface water run-on that has percolated below the zone of evapotranspiration as defined by the depth of the effective root zone. The estimates of net infiltration are primarily used for defining the upper boundary condition for the site-scale three-dimensional unsaturated zone (UZ) model. The UZ flow model is one of several process models abstracted by the total system performance assessment (TSPA) model used to evaluate performance of the repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The net-infiltration model is important for assessing repository-system performance because output from this model provides the upper boundary condition for the UZ flow model used to generate flow fields; water percolating downward from the UZ will be the principal means by which radionuclides are potentially released to the saturated zone (SZ). The SZ is the principal pathway to the biosphere where the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) is exposed to radionuclides.

  14. Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levitt, D.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this model report is to document the infiltration model used to estimate upper-bound, mean, and lower-bound spatially-distributed average annual net infiltration rates for present-day and potential future climates at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Net infiltration is the component of infiltrated precipitation, snowmelt, or surface water run-on that has percolated below the zone of evapotranspiration as defined by the depth of the effective root zone. The estimates of net infiltration are primarily used for defining the upper boundary condition for the site-scale three-dimensional unsaturated zone (UZ) model. The UZ flow model is one of several process models abstracted by the total system performance assessment (TSPA) model used to evaluate performance of the repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The net-infiltration model is important for assessing repository-system performance because output from this model provides the upper boundary condition for the UZ flow model used to generate flow fields; water percolating downward from the UZ will be the principal means by which radionuclides are potentially released to the saturated zone (SZ). The SZ is the principal pathway to the biosphere where the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) is exposed to radionuclides

  15. Assessing Future Ecosystem Services: a Case Study of the Northern Highlands Lake District, Wisconsin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garry D. Peterson

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available The Northern Highlands Lake District of Wisconsin is in transition from a sparsely settled region to a more densely populated one. Expected changes offer benefits to northern Wisconsin residents but also threaten to degrade the ecological services they rely on. Because the future of this region is uncertain, it is difficult to make decisions that will avoid potential risks and take advantage of potential opportunities. We adopt a scenario planning approach to cope with this problem of prediction. We use an ecological assessment framework developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment to determine key social and ecological driving forces in the Northern Highlands Lake District. From these, we describe three alternative scenarios to the year 2025 in which the projected use of ecological services is substantially different. The work reported in this paper demonstrates how scenarios can be developed for a region and provides a starting point for a participatory discussion of alternative futures for northern Wisconsin. Although the future is unknowable, we hope that the assessment process begun in this paper will help the people of the Northern Highlands Lake District choose the future path of their region.

  16. Is ambiguity tolerance malleable? Experimental evidence with potential implications for future research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endres, Megan L; Camp, Richaurd; Milner, Morgan

    2015-01-01

    We conducted two research studies to address the malleability of tolerance of ambiguity (TA) by manipulating situational ambiguity. Students participated in a semester-end assessment of their management skills (n = 306). In Study 1, students in low and moderate ambiguity conditions had significantly higher post-experiment TA, more positive change in self-efficacy, and marginally higher faculty ratings. In Study 2, a control group (n = 103) did not participate in the assessment and was established for comparison to the first study results. The Study 2 students reported TA significantly lower than Study 1 students in the low and moderate ambiguity conditions. The control group TA was not significantly different from that of the Study 1 high ambiguity condition. This further suggested TA's situational malleability, as those who had controlled access to structured information appeared to have increased their TA over that observed in the other two groups. These results suggest that TA may be malleable. We review the relevant literature, offer hypotheses, report our analyses and findings, and then propose future research, and potential prescriptive applications in such areas as management development, assessment, and decision-making.

  17. Is ambiguity tolerance malleable? Experimental evidence with potential implications for future research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan L Endres

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available We conducted two research studies to address the malleability of TA by manipulating situational ambiguity. Students participated in a semester-end assessment of their management skills (n = 306. In Study 1, students in low and moderate ambiguity conditions had significantly higher post-experiment TA, more positive change in self-efficacy, and marginally higher faculty ratings. In Study 2, a control group (n = 103 did not participate in the assessment and was established for comparison to the first study results. The Study 2 students reported TA significantly lower than Study 1 students in the low and moderate ambiguity conditions. The control group TA was not significantly different from that of the Study 1 high ambiguity condition. This further suggested TA’s situational malleability, as those who had controlled access to structured information appeared to have increased their TA over that observed in the other two groups. These results suggest that TA may be malleable. We review the relevant literature, offer hypotheses, report our analyses and findings, and then propose future research and potential prescriptive applications in such areas as management development, assessment, and decision-making.

  18. Assessment of Future Skills Requirements in the Hospitality Sector in Ireland, 2015-2020

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    The hospitality sector is one of the most important employment services sectors in the Irish economy, and there is significant potential for future expansion. The objective of this study is to assess the skills demand needs arising within the Hospitality sector in Ireland – hotels, restaurants, bars, canteens and catering – over the period to 2020. The aim is to ensure that there will be the right supply of skills to help drive domestic hospitality sector business and employment growth.

  19. Customer satisfaction and customer loyalty as predictors of future business potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskildsen, Jacob Kjær; Kristensen, Kai

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyses the relationship between customer satisfaction, customer loyalty and the future business potential of existing customers. The data for the analysis come from the Danish Customer Satisfaction Index 2006. Here a total of approximately 2000 private customers evaluated...

  20. Health technology assessment: research trends and future priorities in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Camilla Palmhøj; Funch, Tina Maria; Kristensen, Finn Børlum

    2011-07-01

    To provide an overview of health services research related to health technology assessment (HTA) and to identify research priorities from a European perspective. Several methods were used: systematic review of articles indexed with the MeSH term 'technology assessment' in PubMed from February 1999-2009; online survey among experts; and conference workshop discussions. Research activity in HTA varies considerably across Europe. The research was categorised into six areas: (1) the breadth of analysis in HTA (such as economic, organizational and social aspects); (2) HTA products developed to meet the needs of policy-makers (such as horizon scanning, mini-HTA, and core HTA); (3) handling life-cycle perspectives in relation to technologies; (4) topics that challenge existing methods and for which HTA should be developed to address the themes more comprehensively (such as public health interventions and organizational interventions); (5) development of HTA capacity and programmes; and (6) links between policy and HTA. An online survey showed that the three areas that were given priority were the relationship between HTA and policy-making (71%), the impact of HTA (62%) and incorporating patient aspects in HTA (50%). Policy-makers highlighted HTA and innovation processes as their main research priority (42%). Areas that the systematic review identified as future priorities include issues within the six existing research areas such as disinvestment, developing evidence for new technologies, assessing the wider effects of technology use, and determining how HTA affects decision-making. In addition, relative effectiveness and individualized treatments are areas of growing interest. The research priorities identified are important for obtaining high quality and cost-effective health care in Europe. Managing the introduction, use and phasing out of technologies challenges health services throughout Europe, and these processes need to be improved to successfully manage future

  1. Synthetic fuels for transportation : background paper #1 : the future potential of electric and hybrid vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-03-01

    This report presents a comprehensive review of the future of electric and hybrid : vehicles through the year 2010 in the United States. It was prepared for the : Office of Technology Assessment as background information for its study, : "Synthetic Fu...

  2. Reducing the Potential for Future Financial Crises: A Framework for Macro-Prudential Policy in Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Paul Jenkins; Gordon Thiessen

    2012-01-01

    Canada needs a policy framework and new governance structure beyond what is in place to reduce the potential for future financial crises. The authors make the case for establishing a formal committee with a mandate to identify potential systemic risks and to act promptly before they materialize. While Canada's system of regulating and supervising financial institutions might hold up as a model of good performance, changes can and should be made, say Jenkins and Thiessen. Future crises undoubt...

  3. Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations

    OpenAIRE

    Gagnin, Cristiano; Havas, Attila; Saritas, Ozcan

    2011-01-01

    This paper reflects on the potential of future-oriented analysis (FTA) to address major change and to support decision-makers and other stakeholders in anticipating and dealing with transformations. It does so by critically reflecting on the selected papers for this special issue as well as on the discussions that took place at the fourth Seville International Conference on Future-oriented Technology Analysis. Considering the potential roles of FTA in enabling a better understanding of co...

  4. Sociological assessment of professional self-determination of future doctors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaidarov G.M.

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The lack of a formed professional self-determination among high school students leads to the fact that in the process of medical education and the first years of professional activity, a significant number of students and young specialists leave medicine. Purpose of the study: sociological assessment of professional self-determination of schoolchildren of the upper grades, including those who choose the profession of a doctor, as well as the factors that determine it. Methods. The study was conducted using a sociological survey using a specially developed questionnaire. Results. The level of professional self-determination of schoolchildren of the upper grades is low, one out of every three schoolchildren surveyed has not yet decided on the choice of the future profession, about 8 % of the students have not even chosen an approximate direction of future professional activity. Schoolchildren who have chosen the profession of a doctor, the main motivation is an adherence and a life situation, while prestige and the level of wages are not decisive. As the main base of forming professional self-determination two out of three respondents named the school, meaning the speech made for them by doctors and medical students. For those schoolchildren who have chosen the profession of a doctor on their own, the main motivation factor usually is the visit to the medical university during Doors Open Days. Conclusion. The most important role in the formation of professional self-determination of future doctors belongs to the development and implementation of vocational guidance activities carried out by the forces of the school and medical university.

  5. Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael Haldrup

    2017-01-01

    Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores the potenti......Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores...... the potentials of speculative thinking in relation to design and social and cultural studies, arguing that both offer valuable insights for creating a speculative space for new emergent criticalities challenging current assumptions of the relations between power and design. It does so by tracing out discussions...... of ‘futurity’ and ‘futuring’ in design as well as social and cultural studies. Firstly, by discussing futurist and speculative approaches in design thinking; secondly by engaging with ideas of scenario thinking and utopianism in current social and cultural studies; and thirdly by showing how the articulation...

  6. Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosa Björk Thorolfsdottir

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25-74. Calculations were based on combining: i data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland, ii population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study, and iii effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses. Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: (1 If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. (2 If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3 Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040. CONCLUSIONS: The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future.

  7. Analysis of Potential Future Climate and Climate Extremes in the Brazos Headwaters Basin, Texas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ripendra Awal

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Texas’ fast-growing economy and population, coupled with cycles of droughts due to climate change, are creating an insatiable demand for water and an increasing need to understand the potential impacts of future climates and climate extremes on the state’s water resources. The objective of this study was to determine potential future climates and climate extremes; and to assess spatial and temporal changes in precipitation (Prec, and minimum and maximum temperature (Tmin and Tmax, respectively, in the Brazos Headwaters Basin under three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1 for three future periods: 2020s (2011–2030, 2055s (2046–2065, and 2090s (2080–2099. Daily gridded climate data obtained from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR were used to downscale outputs from 15 General Circulation Models (GCMs using the Long Ashton Research Station–Weather Generator (LARS-WG model. Results indicate that basin average Tmin and Tmax will increase; however, annual precipitation will decrease for all periods. Annual precipitation will decrease by up to 5.2% and 6.8% in the 2055s and 2090s, respectively. However, in some locations in the basin, up to a 14% decrease in precipitation is projected in the 2090s under the A2 (high emissions scenario. Overall, the northwestern and southern part of the Brazos Headwaters Basin will experience greater decreases in precipitation. Moreover, precipitation indices of the number of wet days (prec ≥ 5 mm and heavy precipitation days (prec ≥ 10 mm are projected to slightly decrease for all future periods. On the other hand, Tmin and Tmax will increase by 2 and 3 °C on average in the 2055s and 2090s, respectively. Mostly, projected increases in Tmin and Tmax will be in the upper range in the southern and southeastern part of the basin. Temperature indices of frost (Tmin < 0 °C and ice days (Tmax < 0 °C are projected to decrease, while tropical nights (Tmin > 20 °C and summer days (Tmax

  8. Elements of a regulatory strategy for the consideration of future human actions in safety assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Wickham, S.M.; Galson, D.A.

    1999-09-01

    The objective of this report is to discuss issues that should be considered in the development of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in any forthcoming license application for a deep repository for spent fuel in Sweden and for sites of other repositories. The report comprises an outline of key issues concerning the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, reviews of regulatory developments, recent safety assessments and supporting studies, and international initiatives on the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, and the principal elements of a regulatory strategy. Performance assessments (PAs) are generally accepted as providing illustrations of system performance under given sets of assumptions. The results of PAs are clearer and easier to understand if certain large uncertainties are accounted for by determining performance under several different sets of assumptions or scenarios, each of which defines a possible evolution of the disposal system. A number of assumptions can be made that would restrict the scope of an assessment without reducing the credibility of the corresponding safety case. Reducing speculation about technological development, by assuming that the techniques used in future human activities are similar to those currently in use in the region or at similar sites, will simplify the assessment. A distinction is generally made between inadvertent and intentional intrusion, with intentional activities excluded because society cannot protect future populations from their own actions if they understand the potential consequences. A division of human activities into 'recent and ongoing' and 'future' activities considers not only the timing of the activities but also the degree of control or influence that can be imposed on them. Recent and ongoing human activities are those that affect an area beyond the immediate vicinity of the disposal facility and which neither the proponent nor the regulator

  9. Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Regional Air Quality and Public Health over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, C.; Zhang, Q.; Zhang, Y.; He, K.

    2017-12-01

    Future climate change would affect public health through changing air quality. Climate extremes and poor weather conditions are likely to occur at a higher frequency in China under a changing climate, but the air pollution-related health impacts due to future climate change remain unclear. Here the potential impacts of future climate change on regional air quality and public health over China is projected using a coupling of climate, air quality and epidemiological models. We present the first assessment of China's future air quality in a changing climate under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario using the dynamical downscaling technique. In RCP4.5 scenario, we estimate that climate change from 2006-2010 to 2046-2050 is likely to adversely affect air quality covering more than 86% of population and 55% of land area in China, causing an average increase of 3% in O3 and PM2.5 concentrations, which are found to be associated with the warmer climate and the more stable atmosphere. Our estimate of air pollution-related mortality due to climate change in 2050 is 26,000 people per year in China. Of which, the PM2.5-related mortality is 18,700 people per year, and the O3-related mortality is 7,300 people per year. The climate-induced air pollution and health impacts vary spatially. The climate impacts are even more pronounced on the urban areas where is densely populated and polluted. 90% of the health loss is concentrated in 20% of land areas in China. We use a simple statistical analysis method to quantify the contributions of climate extremes and find more intense climate extremes play an important role in climate-induced air pollution-related health impacts. Our results indicate that global climate change will likely alter the level of pollutant management required to meet future air quality targets as well as the efforts to protect public health in China.

  10. Bio-SNG potential assessment: Denmark 2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahrenfeldt, J.; Thomsen, T. (Risoe DTU, Roskilde (Denmark)); Joergensen, Betina (Dansk Gasteknisk Center A/S, Hoersholm (Denmark))

    2010-11-15

    In this project the potential for SNG based on biomass gasification has been sought elucidated. As part of the project a model for simulation of biomass in Denmark has been developed. The conclusion is that SNG can substitute a significant amount of natural gas, but the energy efficiency should be improved. (Author)

  11. Assessing academic potential for university admission: The ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A Biographical Questionnaire (BQ) has been used in the Faculty of Humanities at the University of the Witwatersrand since the mid-80s, to identify potential to succeed at university among applicants who have not met the requirements for automatic admission. As the key instrument in a special admissions process, the

  12. Are Managed Futures Indices Telling Truth? Biases in CTA Databases and Proposals of Potential Enhancements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Zaremba

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Managed futures are an alternative asset class which has recently became considerably popular among investment industry. However, due to its characteristics, access to managed futures historical performance statistics is relatively confined. All available information originates from commercial and academic databases, reporting to which is entirely voluntary. This situation results in series of biases which distort the managed futures performance in the eyes of investors. The paper consists of two parts. First, the author reviews and describes various biases that influence the reliability of the managed futures indices and databases. The second section encompasses author’s proposals of potential enhancements, which aim to reduce the impact of the biases in order to derive a benchmark that could better reflect characteristics of managed futures investment from the point of view of a potential investor.

  13. Assessment approaches in massive open online courses: Possibilities, challenges and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Yao; Suen, Hoi K.

    2018-03-01

    The development of massive open online courses (MOOCs) has launched an era of large-scale interactive participation in education. While massive open enrolment and the advances of learning technology are creating exciting potentials for lifelong learning in formal and informal ways, the implementation of efficient and effective assessment is still problematic. To ensure that genuine learning occurs, both assessments for learning (formative assessments), which evaluate students' current progress, and assessments of learning (summative assessments), which record students' cumulative progress, are needed. Providers' more recent shift towards the granting of certificates and digital badges for course accomplishments also indicates the need for proper, secure and accurate assessment results to ensure accountability. This article examines possible assessment approaches that fit open online education from formative and summative assessment perspectives. The authors discuss the importance of, and challenges to, implementing assessments of MOOC learners' progress for both purposes. Various formative and summative assessment approaches are then identified. The authors examine and analyse their respective advantages and disadvantages. They conclude that peer assessment is quite possibly the only universally applicable approach in massive open online education. They discuss the promises, practical and technical challenges, current developments in and recommendations for implementing peer assessment. They also suggest some possible future research directions.

  14. Traumatic brain injury: future assessment tools and treatment prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven R Flanagan

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Steven R Flanagan1, Joshua B Cantor2, Teresa A Ashman21New York University School of Medicine, The Rusk Institute of Rehabilitation, New York, NY, USA; 2Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, NY, USAAbstract: Traumatic brain injury (TBI is widespread and leads to death and disability in millions of individuals around the world each year. Overall incidence and prevalence of TBI are likely to increase in absolute terms in the future. Tackling the problem of treating TBI successfully will require improvements in the understanding of normal cerebral anatomy, physiology, and function throughout the lifespan, as well as the pathological and recuperative responses that result from trauma. New treatment approaches and combinations will need to be targeted to the heterogeneous needs of TBI populations. This article explores and evaluates the research evidence in areas that will likely lead to a reduction in TBI-related morbidity and improved outcomes. These include emerging assessment instruments and techniques in areas of structural/chemical and functional neuroimaging and neuropsychology, advances in the realms of cell-based therapies and genetics, promising cognitive rehabilitation techniques including cognitive remediation and the use of electronic technologies including assistive devices and virtual reality, and the emerging field of complementary and alternative medicine.Keywords: traumatic brain injury, assessments, treatments

  15. Substrate potential of last interglacial to Holocene permafrost organic matter for future microbial greenhouse gas production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stapel, Janina G.; Schwamborn, Georg; Schirrmeister, Lutz; Horsfield, Brian; Mangelsdorf, Kai

    2018-04-01

    In this study the organic matter (OM) in several permafrost cores from Bol'shoy Lyakhovsky Island in NE Siberia was investigated. In the context of the observed global warming the aim was to evaluate the potential of freeze-locked OM from different depositional ages to act as a substrate provider for microbial production of greenhouse gases from thawing permafrost. To assess this potential, the concentrations of free and bound acetate, which form an appropriate substrate for methanogenesis, were determined. The largest free-acetate (in pore water) and bound-acetate (organic-matrix-linked) substrate pools were present in interstadial marine isotope stage (MIS) 3 and stadial MIS 4 Yedoma permafrost deposits. In contrast, deposits from the last interglacial MIS 5e (Eemian) contained only a small pool of substrates. The Holocene (MIS 1) deposits revealed a significant bound-acetate pool, representing a future substrate potential upon release during OM degradation. Additionally, pyrolysis experiments on the OM allocated an increased aliphatic character to the MIS 3 and 4 Late Pleistocene deposits, which might indicate less decomposed and presumably more easily degradable OM. Biomarkers for past microbial communities, including those for methanogenic archaea, also showed the highest abundance during MIS 3 and 4, which indicated OM-stimulated microbial degradation and presumably greenhouse gas production during time of deposition. On a broader perspective, Arctic warming will increase and deepen permafrost thaw and favor substrate availability from older freeze-locked permafrost deposits. Thus, the Yedoma deposits especially showed a high potential for providing substrates relevant for microbial greenhouse gas production.

  16. Assessment and management of building enterprise development potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Елена Игоревна Угодникова

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the development of the generalized integrated criterion of the evaluation of building enterprise development potential. The developed indicator is based on the potential structuring, accounting weighting factors of each structural elements and the possibility of building enterprise capital raising. The algorithm of the potential evaluation and the scheme of the management of building enterprise development potential with accounting future possibilities and hidden resources of business entities are proposed

  17. Hydropower in Turkey: potential and market assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-10-15

    The Turkish hydropower market provides huge opportunities for investors and suppliers. Successful market entry is not easy, however, as the market is still not fully liberalized, the need for local intelligence is large and the competition is increasing. There are also potential political, reputational and environmental risks, typical for an emerging economy. The World Bank global 'Ease of doing business' ranking (2010), ranks Turkey as number 73 of 183 countries. (Author)

  18. Comparing Existing Pipeline Networks with the Potential Scale of Future U.S. CO2 Pipeline Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dooley, James J.; Dahowski, Robert T.; Davidson, Casie L.

    2008-02-29

    There is growing interest regarding the potential size of a future U.S. dedicated CO2 pipeline infrastructure if carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies are commercially deployed on a large scale. In trying to understand the potential scale of a future national CO2 pipeline network, comparisons are often made to the existing pipeline networks used to deliver natural gas and liquid hydrocarbons to markets within the U.S. This paper assesses the potential scale of the CO2 pipeline system needed under two hypothetical climate policies and compares this to the extant U.S. pipeline infrastructures used to deliver CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and to move natural gas and liquid hydrocarbons from areas of production and importation to markets. The data presented here suggest that the need to increase the size of the existing dedicated CO2 pipeline system should not be seen as a significant obstacle for the commercial deployment of CCS technologies.

  19. Elements of a regulatory strategy for the consideration of future human actions in safety assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Wickham, S.M.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

    1999-09-01

    The objective of this report is to discuss issues that should be considered in the development of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in any forthcoming license application for a deep repository for spent fuel in Sweden and for sites of other repositories. The report comprises an outline of key issues concerning the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, reviews of regulatory developments, recent safety assessments and supporting studies, and international initiatives on the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, and the principal elements of a regulatory strategy. Performance assessments (PAs) are generally accepted as providing illustrations of system performance under given sets of assumptions. The results of PAs are clearer and easier tounderstand if certain large uncertainties are accounted for by determining performance under several different sets of assumptions or scenarios, each of which defines a possible evolution of the disposal system. A number of assumptions can be made that would restrict the scope of an assessment without reducing the credibility of the corresponding safety case. Reducing speculation about technological development, by assuming that the techniques used in future human activities are similar to those currently in use in the region or at similar sites, will simplify the assessment. A distinction is generally made between inadvertent and intentional intrusion, with intentional activities excluded because society cannot protect future populations from their own actions if they understand the potential consequences. A division of human activities into 'recent and ongoing' and 'future' activities considers not only the timing of the activities but also the degree of control or influence that can be imposed on them. Recent and ongoing human activities are those that affect an area beyond the immediate vicinity of the disposal facility and which neither the proponent

  20. Future transportation: Lifetime considerations and framework for sustainability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sweeting, Walter J.; Winfield, Patricia H.

    2012-01-01

    Modern society cannot exist without mobility. It is now essential to maintain access to everyday necessities, as well as being a vital part of most economies. However, our current transportation system is placing unsustainable demands on finite resources of fossil fuels, minerals and materials; change is therefore essential. Identifying rational choices is difficult because a future transport option must not only abate these demands over the entire lifetime, but do so at an affordable cost whilst maintaining acceptable levels of utility. This paper offers a framework to evaluate powertrains for whole life criteria, in order to help validate current and future developments. It supports integrated comparisons of both fuel and vehicle technology combinations for cost, energy and greenhouse gas emissions throughout a vehicles lifetime. Case studies illustrate the use of this framework. All powertrains were found to require considerable amounts of energy and emit some emissions over their whole lifetime. Significant benefits over incumbent vehicles were found to be potentially attainable through the use of alternative powertrains. However, the majority of these benefits were currently found to increase user costs, worsen the vehicle production impacts and be heavily reliant on the source of the vehicles in-use energy. - Highlight: ► Cost, energy and GHG emissions throughout a vehicle’s lifetime are evaluated. ► This paper offers a structure to evaluate powertrains for whole life criteria. ► Substantial amounts of energy and emissions were evident for all options. ► Significant environmental benefits over incumbent vehicles were found. ► In-use benefits were shown to shift impacts to other phases of a vehicle’s lifetime.

  1. Energy potential of region and its quantitative assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatyana Aleksandrovna Kovalenko

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the article is the development of the concept of the energy potential of the region (EPR, the analysis of the existing structure of relationships for the EPR elements in Ukraine and improvement of a quantitative assessment of energy potential of the region (country. The methods of an assessment of the existing condition of energy potential of the territory are the subject matter of the research. As a result of the analysis of concept’s definitions of energy potential of the region, it has further development and included the consumer potential of energy resources and capacity of management. The structure of relationships between elements of energy potential is developed for the Ukraine region. The new economic indicator — the realized energy potential is offered for an EPR assessment. By means of this indicator, the assessment of energy potential for the different countries of the world and a number of Ukraine areas of is performed.

  2. Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Retèl Valesca P

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. Methods To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005 until the future (2020. Results In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY, meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. Conclusions When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process

  3. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2017-05-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  4. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2017-05-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  5. Canada's renewable energy resources. An assessment of potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Middleton, P; Argue, R; Burrell, T; Hathaway, G

    1976-04-01

    Rising costs of conventional, frontier and nuclear energy production and the prospect of future shortages have prompted a resurgence of interest in alternative, renewable energy technologies. This study constituted a preliminary step in determining which sources, technologies and applications may be appropriate in Canada, and when and under what conditions they might be technically and economically viable. Principal sources of renewable energy (solar radiation, wind and biomass), as well as waves, thermal gradients and sensible heat sources are reviewed to establish, in general terms, their significance in the Canadian context. Next, the technical characteristics, efficiency, costs, impacts and state-of-the-art of sixteen harnessing or conversion technologies are presented as an information base upon which to build an assessment of potential. A method of comparing the life cost of a renewable energy system to that of the likely conventional alternative is proposed and applied in cases where adequate technical and economic data are available. A variety of different economic assumptions are also outlined under which the renewable systems would be cost competitive. This costing methodology is applied in detail to four case studies: residential solar space and water heating, photovoltaics, residential, a 200 kW wind generator, and anaerobic digestion of livestock wastes. Finally, the potential for renewable energy approaches in Canada is explored and evaluated from three perspectives: technical viability, economic viability and implementation. 319 refs., 18 figs., 94 tabs.

  6. Canada's renewable energy resources: an assessment of potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Middleton, P; Argue, R; Argue, R; Burrell, T; Hathaway, G

    1976-04-01

    Rising costs of conventional, frontier, and nuclear energy production and the prospect of future shortages have prompted a resurgence of interest in alternative, renewable energy technologies. This study constitutes a preliminary step in determining which sources, technologies, and applications may be appropriate in Canada and when and under what conditions they might be technically and economically viable. Principal sources of renewable energy (solar radiation, wind, and biomass), as well as waves, thermal gradients and, sensible heat sources are reviewed to establish, in general terms, their significance in the Canadian context. Next, the technical characteristics, efficiency, costs, impacts, and state of the art of sixteen harnessing or conversion technologies are presented as an information base upon which to build an assessment of potential. A method of comparing the life cost of a renewable energy system to that of the likely conventional alternative is proposed and applied in cases where adequate technical and economic data are available. A variety of different economic assumptions are also outlined under which the renewable systems would be cost competitive. This costing methodology is applied in detail to four Case Studies: solar space and water heating--residential; photovoltaics--residential; wind generator--200 kW; and anaerobic digestion of livestock wastes. Finally, the potential for renewable energy approaches in Canada is explored and evaluated from three perspectives: technical viability, economic viability, and implementation.

  7. An assessment of tidal energy potential. The Lima estuary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trigo-Teixeira, A. [Department of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Lisbon Technical University, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal); Rebordao, I. [WW Consulting Engineers, Laveiras, Caxias 2760-032 (Portugal)

    2009-07-01

    A hydrodynamic model was set up for the Lima estuary (Portugal) and a preliminary assessment of the strength of tidal currents to produce tidal energy was made. To calibrate the model results were compared with measured data, and the model tuned to reproduce water levels and currents in several locations within the estuary. The data was acquired with ADCPs, during a field campaign that was planed to cover a spring-neap tide cycle, in October 2006. The Advanced Circulation Model - ADCIRC was forced with the most important harmonic constituents present in the ocean tide signal. Upstream, in the river boundary, the discharge was taken from hydrographs. The wetting and drying tool was also applied and a detailed bathymetry was considered, since there are areas in the domain where salt marshes occur, drying out at low tide. The tidal currents potential were assessed for a scenario of tidal forcing only, without any river discharge. The lower estuary is occupied by the port infrastructure and navigation channels which conflicts with any kind of equipment installation. Values of the currents and water depths given by the model indicate that some places in the main channel of the middle estuary, might be interesting to install micro turbines in the future, depending on the evolution of the requirements of this technology.

  8. Modelling requirements for future assessments based on FEP analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Locke, J.; Bailey, L.

    1998-01-01

    This report forms part of a suite of documents describing the Nirex model development programme. The programme is designed to provide a clear audit trail from the identification of significant features, events and processes (FEPs) to the models and modelling processes employed within a detailed safety assessment. A scenario approach to performance assessment has been adopted. It is proposed that potential evolutions of a deep geological radioactive waste repository can be represented by a base scenario and a number of variant scenarios. The base scenario is chosen to be broad-ranging and to represent the natural evolution of the repository system and its surrounding environment. The base scenario is defined to include all those FEPs that are certain to occur and those which are judged likely to occur for a significant period of the assessment timescale. The structuring of FEPs on a Master Directed Diagram (MDD) provides a systematic framework for identifying those FEPs that form part of the natural evolution of the system and those, which may define alternative potential evolutions of the repository system. In order to construct a description of the base scenario, FEPs have been grouped into a series of conceptual models. Conceptual models are groups of FEPs, identified from the MDD, representing a specific component or process within the disposal system. It has been found appropriate to define conceptual models in terms of the three main components of the disposal system: the repository engineered system, the surrounding geosphere and the biosphere. For each of these components, conceptual models provide a description of the relevant subsystem in terms of its initial characteristics, subsequent evolution and the processes affecting radionuclide transport for the groundwater and gas pathways. The aim of this document is to present the methodology that has been developed for deriving modelling requirements and to illustrate the application of the methodology by

  9. Turbulence assessment at potential turbine sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniels, A. [Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI (United States)

    1996-12-31

    As opposed to a fixed anemometer, the Tala kite is free to move in the air. The motion of the kite is not random, it moves with or against the speed gradient towards the center of passing turbulence events of higher or lower speeds thus allowing the kite to measure event maximum or minimum speed rather than the speed at some unknown distance from the event center like a fixed anemometer. This behavior is confirmed both by a theoretical aerodynamics analysis of the kite motion and by data from a field study where kite and hot film anemometer (HFA) events, defined by the rain flow count method, were compared with flap events on a rotating turbine blade. The HFAs simulated too few events lasting too long while the kites reproduced both the number of events and event periods remarkably close. It is concluded that the kite is the optimal tool for measuring turbulence at potential turbine sites. Kite turbulence can form the bases for economic return estimates and an example is given where less windy sites could be more economical than other more turbulent higher speed sites. 13 refs., 8 figs.

  10. ASSESSMENT OF HOUSEHOLD CARBON FOOTPRINT REDUCTION POTENTIALS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, Klaas Jan; Homan, Greg; Brown, Rich; Worrell, Ernst; Masanet, Eric

    2009-04-15

    The term ?household carbon footprint? refers to the total annual carbon emissions associated with household consumption of energy, goods, and services. In this project, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory developed a carbon footprint modeling framework that characterizes the key underlying technologies and processes that contribute to household carbon footprints in California and the United States. The approach breaks down the carbon footprint by 35 different household fuel end uses and 32 different supply chain fuel end uses. This level of end use detail allows energy and policy analysts to better understand the underlying technologies and processes contributing to the carbon footprint of California households. The modeling framework was applied to estimate the annual home energy and supply chain carbon footprints of a prototypical California household. A preliminary assessment of parameter uncertainty associated with key model input data was also conducted. To illustrate the policy-relevance of this modeling framework, a case study was conducted that analyzed the achievable carbon footprint reductions associated with the adoption of energy efficient household and supply chain technologies.

  11. Biogas. Present situation and future potential; Biogas. Nulaege och framtida potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nordberg, Ulf [Swedish Inst. of Agricultural and Environmental Engineering, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2006-12-15

    The report contains a general overview of present technology concerning production of biogas through anaerobic breakdown of easily recycled organic material as well as implementation areas for biogas. The work has been done in three parts: description of present situation, technical limitations and development efforts, synthesis. In Sweden there are more than 220 biogas plants for handling crops, sludge and organic residue material. Production of biogas occurs primarily at sewage treatment plants and landfills. Total capacity in 2004 was approx. 300,000 m{sup 3} anaerobic chamber volume, of which approx. 73% was utilised. Planned increase in capacity was approx. 125,000 m{sup 3} or approx. 42%.The substrate brought to the plants was comprised of approx. 45% manure, 30% offal, 10% biowaste from households and 15% other substrates. Calculations based on the energy content of input substrate indicate that approx. 10% of the gas was from manure, 65% from offal, 25% from household waste and 5% from other substrates. In 2005 a total of 1,5 TWh of biogas was produced in Sweden. Biogas is used primarily for heating purposes followed by use as vehicle fuel and in electricity production. More than 55 GWh is torched away. Sewage treatment plants are not included. Interest in using biogas as fuel has increased. The theoretical biogas potential in Sweden has been calculated to be 14-17 TWh per year, of which approx. 80% is found in agriculturally related biomass. Approximately 3 TWh originates from various types of household and industrial waste. Generally it can be said that there is a large potential for improvement and increased efficiency within the whole chain of substrate collection, preparatory treatment of substrates, operational control of biogas plants, upgrade/treatment and use of gas as well as spreading and use of biofertilizer. The greatest increase in substrate will come from the amount of crops from the agricultural sector. The contacts between farmers and plant

  12. Beyond offshoring: assess your company's global potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Diana

    2004-12-01

    In the past few years, companies have become aware that they can slash costs by offshoring: moving jobs to lower-wage locations. But this practice is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of how globalization can transform industries, according to research by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI). The institute's yearlong study suggests that by streamlining their production processes and supply chains globally, rather than just nationally or regionally, companies can lower their costs-as we've seen in the consumer-electronics and PC industries. Companies can save as much as 70% of their total costs through globalization--50% from offshoring, 5% from training and business-task redesign, and 15% from process improvements. But they don't have to stop there. The cost reductions make it possible to lower prices and expand into new markets, attracting whole new classes of customers. To date, however, few businesses have recognized the full scope of performance improvements that globalization makes possible, much less developed sound strategies for capturing those opportunities. In this article, Diana Farrell, director of MGI, offers a step-by-step approach to doing both things. Among her suggestions: Assess where your industry falls along the globalization spectrum, because not all sectors of the economy face the same challenges and opportunities at the same time. Also, pay attention to production, regulatory, and organizational barriers to globalization. If any of these can be changed, size up the cost-saving (and revenue-generating) opportunities that will emerge for your company as a result of those changes. Farrell also defines the five stages of globalization-market entry, product specialization, value chain disaggregation, value chain reengineering, and the creation of new markets-and notes the different levers for cutting costs and creating value that companies can use in each phase.

  13. Assessing asbestos exposure potential in nonindustrial settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, S N; White, L E; Scott, W D

    1987-01-01

    The presence of asbestos containing materials (ACM) in office and commercial buildings is a significant environmental problem. Asbestosis, mesothelioma and lung cancer have been linked with industrial exposure to airborne asbestos. The extensive use of asbestos products in buildings has raised concerns about the widespread exposure of the general public to asbestos in nonoccupational settings. The presence of asbestos in a building does not necessarily mean that significant exposure of the occupants of the building has occurred, but it is important that the asbestos be monitored regularly to ensure that fibers do not become airborne. If ACM are contained within a matrix and not disturbed, exposure is unlikely. However, if the asbestos becomes friable (crumbling) or if building maintenance, repair, renovation or other activities disturb ACM, airborne asbestos fibers may be a source of exposure to the occupants of the building. Currently, asbestos exposure assessment is conducted by a phase contrast light microscope (PCM) technique. Due to its inherent limitation in resolution and the generic counting rules used, analysis by the PCM method underestimates the airborne asbestos fiber concentration as compared to analysis by transmission electron microscopy (TEM). It is important that the air monitoring results analyzed by PCM be interpreted carefully in conjunction with a survey by a professional to judge the physical condition of the ACM in buildings. Exposure levels to airborne asbestos fibers vary from day to day and depend on the physical condition of the material involved and the type of operating and maintenance program in place.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  14. Postcessation weight gain concern as a barrier to smoking cessation: Assessment considerations and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germeroth, Lisa J; Levine, Michele D

    2018-01-01

    Concern about postcessation weight gain may be one potential barrier to quitting smoking. In this 'mini-review' of recent literature, we summarize findings on the relationship between postcessation weight gain concern and smoking cessation, and evaluate varied use of postcessation weight gain concern assessments and potential moderators of the postcessation weight gain concern-cessation association. We conducted a search using the terms "smoking" OR "smoking cessation" AND "weight concern" for articles published between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2016. We identified 17 studies assessing postcessation weight gain concern, seven of which evaluated the postcessation weight gain concern-cessation association. The relationship between postcessation weight gain concern and smoking cessation was mixed. Recent studies varied in their assessments of postcessation weight gain concern, many of which were not validated and assessed correlates of this construct. Studies varied in their adjustment of demographic (e.g., sex), smoking-specific (e.g., smoking level), and weight-specific (e.g., body mass index) variables. The use of non-validated assessments and variability in testing covariates/moderators may contribute to conflicting results regarding the postcessation weight gain concern-cessation relationship. We recommend validating an assessment of postcessation weight gain concern, maintaining vigilance in testing and reporting covariates/moderators, and investigating trajectories of this construct over time and by smoking status to inform future assessment and intervention efforts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Epicardial fat and atrial fibrillation: current evidence, potential mechanisms, clinical implications, and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Christopher X; Ganesan, Anand N; Selvanayagam, Joseph B

    2017-05-01

    Obesity is increasingly recognized as a major modifiable determinant of atrial fibrillation (AF). Although body mass index and other clinical measures are useful indications of general adiposity, much recent interest has focused on epicardial fat, a distinct adipose tissue depot that can be readily assessed using non-invasive imaging techniques. A growing body of data from epidemiological and clinical studies has demonstrated that epicardial fat is consistently associated with the presence, severity, and recurrence of AF across a range of clinical settings. Evidence from basic science and translational studies has also suggested that arrhythmogenic mechanisms may involve adipocyte infiltration, pro-fibrotic, and pro-inflammatory paracrine effects, oxidative stress, and other pathways. Despite these advances, however, significant uncertainty exists and many questions remain unanswered. In this article, we review our present understanding of epicardial fat, including its classification and quantification, existing evidence implicating its role in AF, potential mechanisms, implications for clinicians, and future directions for research. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2016. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Magnetic resonance imaging of the cardiovascular system: present state of the art and future potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobson, H.G.

    1988-01-01

    State-of-the-art magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) generates high-resolution images of the cardiovascular system. Conventional MRI techniques provide images in six to ten minutes per tomographic slice. New strategies have substantially improved the speed of imaging. The technology is relatively expensive, and its cost-effectiveness remains to be defined in relation to other effective, less expensive, and noninvasive technologies, such as echocardiography and nuclear medicine. The ultimate role of MRI will depend on several factors, including the development of specific applications such as (1) noninvasive angiography, especially of the coronary arteries;(2) noninvasive, high-resolution assessment of regional myocardial blood flow distribution (e.g., using paramagnetic contrast agents); (3) characterization of myocardial diseases using proton-relaxation property changes; and (4) evaluation of in vivo myocardial biochemistry. The three-dimensional imaging capability and the ability to image cardiovascular structures without contrast material give MRI a potential advantage over existing noninvasive diagnostic imaging techniques. This report analyzes current applications of MRI to the cardiovascular system and speculates on their future

  17. The Past and the Future of Constructive Technology Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schot, Johan; Rip, Arie

    1997-01-01

    Constructive technology assessment (CTA) is a member of the family of technology assessment approaches. developed in particular in the Netherlands and Denmark. CTA shifts the focus away from assessing impacts of new technologies to broadening design, development, and implementation processes.

  18. Future of car-sharing in Germany: Customer potential estimation, diffusion and ecological effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilke, Georg; Bongardt, Daniel

    2007-01-01

    The article summarises selected key results of the project 'Future of Car-Sharing in Germany', funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research. The target of the research was to improve the informational basis for the traffic and environmental assessment of car-sharing in Germany by means of an empirically based estimation of the medium-term perspective (time horizon 2020). Intermediate results were presented at the ECEEE congress 2005.Basis of the demand analyses, which were aligned to the milieu concept, was provided by two surveys (a non-representative survey of circa 500 customers and former customers and a representative survey of around 1,500 non-customers). In the interviews two service scenarios of a 'new' Car-Sharing in the shape of short-term car rental without ecological requirements were used. The analysis of the surveys was differentiated on two levels: On general level covering the whole sample and on the level of sub-samples covering the different milieus. Findings are provided with regard to prospective customers (social milieu affiliation, social profiles, notional using patterns) and backgrounds of their interest in short-term car rental as well as results of a customer potential estimation and a traffic and eco-balance. The results show that a diffusion of short-term car rentals appears feasible with an eco-balance remaining positive. For various reasons, the market development to be achieved by the year 2020, however, should be relatively limited. Similar is true for the potential contribution of car-sharing to a sustainable mobility altogether

  19. Customer Satisfaction and Customer Loyalty as Predictors of Future Business Potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskildsen, Jacob Kjær; Kristensen, Kai

    2007-01-01

    This paper analyzes the relationship between customer satisfaction, customer loyalty and the future business potential of existing customers. The data for the analysis comes from the Danish Customer Satisfaction Index 2006. Here a total of app. 2000 private customers evaluated their...

  20. The Development of B2C E-Commerce in Greece: Current Situation and Future Potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kardaras, Dimitris; Papathanassiou, Eleutherios

    2000-01-01

    Reports on the results of a survey of 120 companies in Greece that evaluated the potential of business to customer (B2C) Internet applications and investigated how the Internet and e-commerce can offer new opportunities for businesses to improve their customers' satisfaction. Discusses electronic commerce problems and future technology. (Contains…

  1. Assessment of bioenergy potential on marginal land in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhuang, Dafang; Jiang, Dong; Liu, Lei; Huang, Yaohuan [Data Center for Resources and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101 (China)

    2011-02-15

    Bioenergy developed from energy plants will play a more and more important role in future energy supply. Much attention has been paid to energy plants in recent years. As China has fairly limited cultivated land resources, the bioenergy development may mainly rely on the exploitation of marginal land. This study focused on the assessment of marginal land resources and bio-fuel potential in China using newly acquired data and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. A multi-factor analysis method was adopted to identify marginal lands for bioenergy development in China, with data of several main types of energy plants on the eco-environmental requirements and natural habits employed. A combined planting zonation strategy was proposed, which was targeted for five species of energy plants including Helianthus tuberous L., Pistacia chinensis, Jatropha curcas L., Cassava and Vernicia fordii. The results indicated that total area of marginal land exploitable for development of energy plants on a large scale was about 43.75 million ha. If 10% of this marginal land was fully utilized for growing the energy plants, the production of bio-fuel would be 13.39 million tons. (author)

  2. Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transportation systems. Volume 7: Study recommendations

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-01-01

    Research and analysis tasks to alleviate negative impacts, to augment positive impacts, or to better understand the impacts produced by the potential introduction of the alternate transportation technologies are identified. The project team's recommendations on research and analysis efforts which have resulted from the technology assessment are provided. Many of the recommendations apply to the future supply of intercity passenger transportation services, categorized by mode. Other recommendations pertain to broad issues in intercity transportation--e.g., finance, regulation, traveler values--that will affect all modes.

  3. Interim Feed The Future Population Based Assessment of Cambodia

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Agency for International Development — This is the interim population based survey of Feed the Future in Cambodia for 2015. The data is split into survey modules. Modules A through C includes location...

  4. Consequence Assessment for Potential Scenarios of Radiological Terrorists Events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Hyeongki; Kim, Juyoul

    2007-01-01

    Radiological dispersal device (RDD) means any method used to deliberately disperse radioactive material to create terror or harm. Dirty bomb is an example of RDD, which usually consists of radioactive material and unconventional explosive. Dirty bomb was a problem long before September 11, 2001. In 1987, the Iraqi government tested a one-ton radiological bomb. The Iraqi tests confirmed that a dirty bomb is not effective as weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and that its main value is as a psychological weapon. In 1995, Chechen rebels buried a dirty bomb in a park in Moscow threatening to detonate one in the future if their demands were not met. Another good example of potential dirty bomb effects was an incident in Goiania, Brazil on September 18, 1987, where an orphaned medical source containing 1,375 Ci of Cs-137 resulted the death of four people and extensive environmental contamination. The purposes of radiological terrorists events are not to destroy or damage the target but to disperse radioactivity in the environment. They inflict panic on a public and economic damage by disruption of business. They also have influence on enormous clean-up costs by spreading radioactive contamination including secondary impacts on water supply reservoirs. Generally, two major long-term concerns following a RDD are human health and economic impacts. In this study, we developed potential scenarios of radiological terrorists events and performed their radiological consequence assessments in terms of total effective dose equivalent (TEDE), projected cumulative external and internal dose, and ground deposition of radioactivity

  5. Consequence Assessment for Potential Scenarios of Radiological Terrorists Events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Hyeongki [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Juyoul [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2007-07-01

    Radiological dispersal device (RDD) means any method used to deliberately disperse radioactive material to create terror or harm. Dirty bomb is an example of RDD, which usually consists of radioactive material and unconventional explosive. Dirty bomb was a problem long before September 11, 2001. In 1987, the Iraqi government tested a one-ton radiological bomb. The Iraqi tests confirmed that a dirty bomb is not effective as weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and that its main value is as a psychological weapon. In 1995, Chechen rebels buried a dirty bomb in a park in Moscow threatening to detonate one in the future if their demands were not met. Another good example of potential dirty bomb effects was an incident in Goiania, Brazil on September 18, 1987, where an orphaned medical source containing 1,375 Ci of Cs-137 resulted the death of four people and extensive environmental contamination. The purposes of radiological terrorists events are not to destroy or damage the target but to disperse radioactivity in the environment. They inflict panic on a public and economic damage by disruption of business. They also have influence on enormous clean-up costs by spreading radioactive contamination including secondary impacts on water supply reservoirs. Generally, two major long-term concerns following a RDD are human health and economic impacts. In this study, we developed potential scenarios of radiological terrorists events and performed their radiological consequence assessments in terms of total effective dose equivalent (TEDE), projected cumulative external and internal dose, and ground deposition of radioactivity.

  6. Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauser, Wolfram; Klepper, Gernot; Zabel, Florian; Delzeit, Ruth; Hank, Tobias; Putzenlechner, Birgitta; Calzadilla, Alvaro

    2015-11-12

    Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today's cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers' profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification.

  7. Future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    . USDA Forest Service.

    2012-01-01

    The Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 (RPA) mandates a periodic assessment of the conditions and trends of the Nation's renewable resources on forests and rangelands. The RPA Assessment includes projections of resource conditions and trends 50 years into the future. The 2010 RPA Assessment used a set of future scenarios to provide a...

  8. Assessing the future of a CSP industry in Morocco

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahia, Ramon; Arce, Rafael de; Medina, Eva

    2014-01-01

    This article presents the results of a survey on the feasibility of, and difficulties in, establishing a locally CSP manufacturing industry in Morocco. First, the survey explores which specific components of the CSP production chain could be manufactured in Morocco today and which would require moderate or significant changes being made in that country over the next decade. This paper contributes to demonstrating the potential for a CSP manufacturing industry in Morocco at the present time, ideal business models and current restrictions. Second, on the one hand this survey provides insight into the entrepreneurial, policy- and market-related barriers hampering the development of this industry and, on the other, the relative advantages offered by Morocco for the development of a CSP sector. Complementing the empirical findings on foreign direct investment determinants, this exercise stresses the key relevance of the economic context not only in terms of size, stability and predictability of the market, but also in regard to the critical importance of institutional and policy-related issues such as stability and public policy commitment. The results show that prior experience of firms in developing areas is a crucial issue in the accurate assessment of the risks and benefits associated with FDI decisions. - Highlights: • A CSP industry in Morocco is viable under certain adjustments in the next decade. • Policy related barriers are more critical than entrepreneurial or market obstacles. • It urges to provide a legislative and administrative support for CSP initiatives. • The volume of installed CSP capacity in the region doesn't reach a critical level. • Some foreign investors might have a negative miss perception of Moroccan reality

  9. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    activities. The method results in the development of LULC maps providing insights into a range of alternative futures using a scope of socio-economic and environmental conditions. A landslides assessment model, the ALICE model is then used as a final tool to analyze the potential impacts of simulated LUCC on landslide risks and the consequences in terms of vulnerability, e.g. changes in disaster risk allocation or characterization, degree of perturbation. This assessment intends to provide insights onto the potential future development of the valley to help identify areas at stake and to guide decision makers to help the risk management. Preliminary results show strong differences of futures land use and land cover maps that have significant influence on landslides hazards.

  10. Functional Behavior Assessment in Schools: Current Status and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Cynthia M.; Rodriguez, Billie Jo; Campbell, Amy

    2015-01-01

    Functional behavior assessment is becoming a commonly used practice in school settings. Accompanying this growth has been an increase in research on functional behavior assessment. We reviewed the extant literature on documenting indirect and direct methods of functional behavior assessment in school settings. To discern best practice guidelines…

  11. The potential impact of computer-aided assessment technology in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The potential impact of computer-aided assessment technology in higher education. ... Further more 'Increased number of students in Higher Education and the ... benefits, limitations, impacts on student learning and strategies for developing ...

  12. US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John; Jacobs, Kathy; Lempert, Rob; Mearns, L. O.; Melillo, Jerry; Mote, Phil; O' Brien, Sheila; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, Alex; Sheppard, Stephen; Vallario, Robert W.; Wiek, Arnim; Wilbanks, Thomas

    2011-10-01

    This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for release in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes

  13. Current Animal Models of Postoperative Spine Infection and Potential Future Advances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra eStavrakis

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Implant related infection following spine surgery is a devastating complication for patients and can potentially lead to significant neurological compromise, disability, morbidity, and even mortality. This paper provides an overview of the existing animal models of postoperative spine infection and highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each model. In addition there is discussion regarding potential modifications to these animal models to better evaluate preventative and treatment strategies for this challenging complication. Current models are effective in simulating surgical procedures but fail to evaluate infection longitudinally using multiple techniques. Potential future modifications to these models include using advanced imaging technologies to evaluate infection, use of bioluminescent bacterial species, and testing of novel treatment strategies against multiple bacterial strains. There is potential to establish a postoperative spine infection model using smaller animals, such as mice, as these would be a more cost-effective screening tool for potential therapeutic interventions.

  14. Assessment of risk of potential exposures on facilities industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leocadio, Joao Carlos

    2007-03-01

    This work develops a model to evaluate potential exposures on open facilities of industrial radiography in Brazil. This model will decisively contribute to optimize operational, radiological protection and safety procedures, to prevent radiation accidents and to reduce human errors in industrial radiography. The probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology was very useful to assess potential exposures. The open facilities of industrial radiography were identified as the scenario to be analyzed in what concerns the evaluation of potential exposures, due to their high accidents indices. The results of the assessment of potential exposures confirm that the industrial radiography in Brazil is a high-risk practice as classified by the IAEA. The risk of potential exposure was estimated to be 40,5 x 10 -2 per year in Brazil, having as main consequences injuries to the workers' hands and arms. In the world scene, the consequences are worst, leading to fatalities of people, thus emphasizing the high risk of industrial radiography. (author)

  15. Modelling cereal crops to assess future climate risk for family food self-sufficiency in southern Mali

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Traore, Bouba; Descheemaeker, Katrien; Wijk, van Mark T.; Corbeels, Marc; Supit, Iwan; Giller, Ken E.

    2017-01-01

    Future climate change will have far reaching consequences for smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa, the majority of whom depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. Here we assessed the farm-level impact of climate change on family food self-sufficiency and evaluated potential adaptation

  16. The potential benefit of pre-operative assessment of amputation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The potential benefit of pre-operative assessment of amputation wound healing potential in peripheral vascular disease. M. Mars, R. P. Mills, J. V. Robbs. Abstract. Choosing the most distal amputation level that will heal is difficult in patients with peripheral vascular disease. From 1984 to 1988,965 patients underwent 1 563 ...

  17. Transportation Energy Futures Series. Potential for Energy Efficiency Improvement Beyond the Light-Duty-Vehicle Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vyas, A. D. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Patel, D. M. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Bertram, K. M. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2013-02-01

    Considerable research has focused on energy efficiency and fuel substitution options for light-duty vehicles, while much less attention has been given to medium- and heavy-duty trucks, buses, aircraft, marine vessels, trains, pipeline, and off-road equipment. This report brings together the salient findings from an extensive review of literature on future energy efficiency options for these non-light-duty modes. Projected activity increases to 2050 are combined with forecasts of overall fuel efficiency improvement potential to estimate the future total petroleum and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to current levels. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  18. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Potential for Energy Efficiency Improvement Beyond the Light-Duty-Vehicle Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vyas, A. D.; Patel, D. M.; Bertram, K. M.

    2013-03-01

    Considerable research has focused on energy efficiency and fuel substitution options for light-duty vehicles, while much less attention has been given to medium- and heavy-duty trucks, buses, aircraft, marine vessels, trains, pipeline, and off-road equipment. This report brings together the salient findings from an extensive review of literature on future energy efficiency options for these non-light-duty modes. Projected activity increases to 2050 are combined with forecasts of overall fuel efficiency improvement potential to estimate the future total petroleum and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to current levels. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  19. Dynamic Assessment, Potential Giftedness and Mathematics Achievement in Elementary School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popa, Nicoleta Laura; Pauc, Ramona Loredana

    2015-01-01

    Dynamic assessment is currently discussed in educational literature as one of the most promising practices in stimulating learning among various groups of students, including gifted and potentially gifted students. The present study investigates effects of dynamic assessment on mathematics achievement among elementary school students, with…

  20. Seeking potential contributions to future carbon budget in conterminous US forests considering disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Fangmin; Pan, Yude; Birdsey, Richard A.; Chen, Jing M.; Dugan, Alexa

    2017-11-01

    Currently, US forests constitute a large carbon sink, comprising about 9 % of the global terrestrial carbon sink. Wildfire is the most significant disturbance influencing carbon dynamics in US forests. Our objective is to estimate impacts of climate change, CO2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition on the future net biome productivity (NBP) of US forests until the end of twenty-first century under a range of disturbance conditions. We designate three forest disturbance scenarios under one future climate scenario to evaluate factor impacts for the future period (2011-2100): (1) no wildfires occur but forests continue to age (Saging), (2) no wildfires occur and forest ages are fixed in 2010 (Sfixed_nodis), and (3) wildfires occur according to a historical pattern, consequently changing forest age (Sdis_age_change). Results indicate that US forests remain a large carbon sink in the late twenty-first century under the Sfixed_nodis scenario; however, they become a carbon source under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios. During the period of 2011 to 2100, climate is projected to have a small direct effect on NBP, while atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition have large positive effects on NBP regardless of the future climate and disturbance scenarios. Meanwhile, responses to past disturbances under the Sfixed_nodis scenario increase NBP regardless of the future climate scenarios. Although disturbance effects on NBP under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios decrease with time, both scenarios experience an increase in NBP prior to the 2050s and then a decrease in NBP until the end of the twenty-first century. This study indicates that there is potential to increase or at least maintain the carbon sink of conterminous US forests at the current level if future wildfires are reduced and age structures are maintained at a productive mix. The effects of CO2 on the future carbon sink may overwhelm effects of other factors at the end of the twenty

  1. Assessing Collaborative Learning: Big Data, Analytics and University Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Assessment in higher education has focused on the performance of individual students. This focus has been a practical as well as an epistemic one: methods of assessment are constrained by the technology of the day, and in the past they required the completion by individuals under controlled conditions of set-piece academic exercises. Recent…

  2. Assessment and E-Learning: Current Issues and Future Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowie, Neil; Sakui, Keiko

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes different ways in which digital technology can be used for language learning. It then identifies some key trends connecting assessment and technology in language learning and higher education: the use of automated systems to enhance traditional assessment practices; the use of Web 2.0 tools to facilitate new assessment…

  3. Assessment of the energy efficiency enhancement of future mobile networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Litjens, R.; Toh, Y.; Zhang, H.; Blume, O.

    2014-01-01

    We assess the energy efficiency of mobile networks in 2020, and compare it with a 2010 baseline. A comprehensive assessment approach is taken, considering all relevant scenario aspects such as data traffic growth, hardware evolutions, mobile network deployments and operations including network

  4. Landward Perspective of Coastal Eutrophication Potential Under Future Climate Change: The Seine River Case (France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mélanie Raimonet

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Studies quantifying the impact of climate change have so far mostly examined atmospheric variables, and few are evaluating the cascade of aquatic impacts that will occur along the land–ocean continuum until the ultimate impacts on coastal eutrophication potential. In this study, a new hydro-biogeochemical modeling chain has been developed, based on the coupling of the generic pyNuts-Riverstrahler biogeochemical model and the GR4J-CEMANEIGE hydrological model, and applied to the Seine River basin (France. Averaged responses of biogeochemical variables to climate-induced hydrological changes were assessed using climate forcing based on 12 projections of precipitation and temperature (BC-CORDEX for the stabilization (RCP 4.5 and the increasing (RCP 8.5 CO2 emission scenarios. Beyond the amount of nutrients delivered to the sea, we calculated the indicator of coastal eutrophication potential (ICEP. The models run with the RCP4.5 stabilization scenario show low variations in hydrological regimes and water quality, while five of the six models run with the increasing CO2 emissions scenario (RCP8.5 leads to more intense extreme streamflow (i.e., higher maximum flows, lower and longer minimum flows, resulting in the degradation of water quality. For the driest RCP 8.5 projection, median biogeochemical impacts induced by decreasing discharge (until −270 m3 s−1 in average are mostly located downstream of major wastewater treatment plants. During spring bloom, e.g., in May, the associated higher residence time leads to an increase of phytoplankton biomass (+31% in average, with a simultaneous −23% decrease of silicic acid, followed downstream by a −9% decrease of oxygen. Later during low flow, major increases in nitrate and phosphate concentrations (until +19% and +32% in average are expected. For all considered scenarios, high ICEP values (above zero lasted, indicating that coastal eutrophication is not expected to decrease with changing

  5. Virtual water content of temperate cereals and maize: Present and potential future patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fader, Marianela; Rost, Stefanie; Müller, Christoph; Bondeau, Alberte; Gerten, Dieter

    2010-04-01

    SummaryKnowledge of the virtual water content (VWC) of crops and especially its possible future developments is helpful for improvements in water productivity and water management, which are necessary at global scale due to rising demand for food, the necessity to ease present and future water scarcity, and the reduction of poverty. Using a dynamic global vegetation and water balance model (LPJmL), this study quantifies the VWC of two of the most important crop types worldwide, temperate cereals and maize, at high spatial resolution (0.5°). We analyzed present conditions (1999-2003) and also for the first time also for scenarios of future climate and increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations (2041-2070; HadCM3, ECHAM5 and CCSM3 climate models, A2 emissions scenario). VWC presently differs significantly among regions: highest values are common in large parts of Africa (>2 m 3 kg -1), and lowest values were found e.g. for Central Europe (Europe, South Africa, Argentina, Australia and South East Asia—are projected to become less water efficient (higher VWC) for at least one of the crop types. CO 2 fertilisation was simulated to generally reduce VWC, though realisation of this effect in the field will depend, for example, on the intensity of nutrient management in the future. The potentially adverse future changes in VWC found here pose a challenge to water management efforts and eventually global trade policies.

  6. Considering Future Potential Regarding Structural Diversity in Selection of Forest Reserves.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johanna Lundström

    Full Text Available A rich structural diversity in forests promotes biodiversity. Forests are dynamic and therefore it is crucial to consider future structural potential when selecting reserves, to make robust conservation decisions. We analyzed forests in boreal Sweden based on 17,599 National Forest Inventory (NFI plots with the main aim to understand how effectiveness of reserves depends on the time dimension in the selection process, specifically by considering future structural diversity. In the study both the economic value and future values of 15 structural variables were simulated during a 100 year period. To get a net present structural value (NPSV, a single value covering both current and future values, we used four discounting alternatives: (1 only considering present values, (2 giving equal importance to values in each of the 100 years within the planning horizon, (3 applying an annual discount rate considering the risk that values could be lost, and (4 only considering the values in year 100. The four alternatives were evaluated in a reserve selection model under budget-constrained and area-constrained selections. When selecting young forests higher structural richness could be reached at a quarter of the cost over almost twice the area in a budget-constrained selection compared to an area-constrained selection. Our results point to the importance of considering future structural diversity in the selection of forest reserves and not as is done currently to base the selection on existing values. Targeting future values increases structural diversity and implies a relatively lower cost. Further, our results show that a re-orientation from old to young forests would imply savings while offering a more extensive reserve network with high structural qualities in the future. However, caution must be raised against a drastic reorientation of the current old-forest strategy since remnants of ancient forests will need to be prioritized due to their role for

  7. Future potential distribution of the emerging amphibian chytrid fungus under anthropogenic climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Lötters, Stefan

    2010-11-01

    Anthropogenic climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity with a potential to alter biological interactions at all spatial scales. Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates and have been subject to increasing conservation attention over the past decade. A particular concern is the pandemic emergence of the parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which has been identified as the cause of extremely rapid large-scale declines and species extinctions. Experimental and observational studies have demonstrated that the host-pathogen system is strongly influenced by climatic parameters and thereby potentially affected by climate change. Herein we project a species distribution model of the pathogen onto future climatic scenarios generated by the IPCC to examine their potential implications on the pandemic. Results suggest that predicted anthropogenic climate change may reduce the geographic range of B. dendrobatidis and its potential influence on amphibian biodiversity.

  8. Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (Orion)

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana L.; Bigler, Mark A.

    2017-01-01

    NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. To determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators, and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the

  9. Identification of Potential Hazard using Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, R. M.; Syahputri, K.; Rizkya, I.; Siregar, I.

    2017-03-01

    This research was conducted in the paper production’s company. These Paper products will be used as a cigarette paper. Along in the production’s process, Company provides the machines and equipment that operated by workers. During the operations, all workers may potentially injured. It known as a potential hazard. Hazard identification and risk assessment is one part of a safety and health program in the stage of risk management. This is very important as part of efforts to prevent occupational injuries and diseases resulting from work. This research is experiencing a problem that is not the identification of potential hazards and risks that would be faced by workers during the running production process. The purpose of this study was to identify the potential hazards by using hazard identification and risk assessment methods. Risk assessment is done using severity criteria and the probability of an accident. According to the research there are 23 potential hazard that occurs with varying severity and probability. Then made the determination Risk Assessment Code (RAC) for each potential hazard, and gained 3 extreme risks, 10 high risks, 6 medium risks and 3 low risks. We have successfully identified potential hazard using RAC.

  10. Assessing the role of coal in the world energy future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hibbard Junior, W.R.

    1981-01-01

    Ten recent extensive studies of long range energy futures were evaluated and a consensus of findings developed. Progress toward the consensus was determined. In the next 20 years the United States will need all of the coal, nuclear, oil shale and tar sands that public consensus and the legislatures will permit. Concerns include the cost and availability of OPEC oil, energy efficiency, acid rain, and carbon dioxide build-up. (Author) [pt

  11. Increasing Potential Risk of a Global Aquatic Invader in Europe in Contrast to Other Continents under Future Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xuan; Guo, Zhongwei; Ke, Zunwei; Wang, Supen; Li, Yiming

    2011-01-01

    Background Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. Methodology/Principal Findings We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. Conclusions/Significance Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop

  12. Strategy for the future use and disposition of Uranium-233: History, inventories, storage facilities, and potential future uses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bereolos, P.J.; Lewis, L.C.

    1998-06-01

    This document provides background information on the man-made radioisotope 233 U. It is one of a series of four reports that map out potential national strategies for the future use and disposition of 233 U pending action under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). The scope of this report is separated 233 U, where separated refers to nonwaste 233 U or 233 U that has been separated from fission products. Information on other 233 U, such as that in spent nuclear fuel (SNF), is included only to recognize that it may be separated at a later date and then fall under the scope of this report. The background information in this document includes the historical production and current inventory of 233 U, the uses of 233 U, and a discussion of the available facilities for storing 233 U. The considerations for what fraction of the current inventory should be preserved for future use depend on several issues. First, 233 U always contains a small amount of the contaminant isotope 232 U. The decay products of 232 U are highly radioactive and require special handling. The current inventory has a variety of qualities with regard to 232 U content, ranging from 1 to about 200 ppm (on a total uranium basis). It is preferable to use 233 U with the minimum amount of 232 U in all applications. The second issue pertains to other isotopes of uranium mixed in with the 233 U, specifically 235 U and 238 U. A large portion of the inventory has a high quantity of 235 U associated with it. The presence of bulk amounts of 235 U complicates storage because of the added volume needing safeguards and criticality controls. Isotopic dilution using DU may remove safeguards and criticality concerns, but it increases the overall mass and may limit applications that depend on the fissile nature of 233 U. The third issue concerns the packaging of the material. There is no standard packaging (although one is being developed); consequently, the inventory exists in a variety of packages. For some

  13. Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remington, Benjamin C.

    2017-09-01

    Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

  14. Quantifying the potential for reservoirs to secure future surface water yields in the world’s largest river basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Lu; Parkinson, Simon; Gidden, Matthew; Byers, Edward; Satoh, Yusuke; Riahi, Keywan; Forman, Barton

    2018-04-01

    Surface water reservoirs provide us with reliable water supply, hydropower generation, flood control and recreation services. Yet reservoirs also cause flow fragmentation in rivers and lead to flooding of upstream areas, thereby displacing existing land-use activities and ecosystems. Anticipated population growth and development coupled with climate change in many regions of the globe suggests a critical need to assess the potential for future reservoir capacity to help balance rising water demands with long-term water availability. Here, we assess the potential of large-scale reservoirs to provide reliable surface water yields while also considering environmental flows within 235 of the world’s largest river basins. Maps of existing cropland and habitat conservation zones are integrated with spatially-explicit population and urbanization projections from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to identify regions unsuitable for increasing water supply by exploiting new reservoir storage. Results show that even when maximizing the global reservoir storage to its potential limit (∼4.3–4.8 times the current capacity), firm yields would only increase by about 50% over current levels. However, there exist large disparities across different basins. The majority of river basins in North America are found to gain relatively little firm yield by increasing storage capacity, whereas basins in Southeast Asia display greater potential for expansion as well as proportional gains in firm yield under multiple uncertainties. Parts of Europe, the United States and South America show relatively low reliability of maintaining current firm yields under future climate change, whereas most of Asia and higher latitude regions display comparatively high reliability. Findings from this study highlight the importance of incorporating different factors, including human development, land-use activities, and climate change, over a time span of multiple decades and across a range of different

  15. Aging assessments: A strategy for today and the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lofaro, R.; Taylor, J.

    1993-01-01

    Aging assessments have been performed for selected nuclear power plant systems under the NRC's Nuclear Plant Aging Research (NPAR) program. These assessments are typically performed by evaluating industry wide data from national databases. The results provide useful information on the typical aging characteristics for the system studied. However, due to the differences in operation and environmental conditions, as well as maintenance practices between plants, the results of the industry wide data analyses may not be representative of specific plant conditions. Therefore, it would be beneficial for utilities to perform their own plant specific aging assessments. This paper discusses an approach that can be used by the utilities to perform an aging assessment of their plant systems. The methodology is based on that used to perform the NPAR system studies at Brookhaven National Laboratory. The reasons for performing a plant specific system level aging assessment are discussed, along with the sources of information that should be used. In addition, a methodology for performing the assessment is presented. Sample charts and tables are included to illustrate the expected products. A discussion is included on what to look for in the available data, how to interpret the findings, and how to implement the results

  16. Energy Saving Potential of PCMs in Buildings under Future Climate Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdo Abdullah Ahmed Gassar

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Energy consumption reduction under changing climate conditions is a major challenge in buildings design, where excessive energy consumption creates an economic and environmental burden. Improving thermal performance of the buildings through support applying phase change material (PCM is a promising strategy for reducing building energy consumption under future climate change. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the energy saving potentials in buildings under future climate conditions in the humid and snowy regions in the hot continental and humid subtropical climates of the east Asia (Seoul, Tokyo and Hong Kong when various PCMs with different phase change temperatures are applied to a lightweight building envelope. Methodology in this work is implemented in two phases: firstly, investigation of energy saving potentials in buildings through inclusion of three types of PCMs with different phase temperatures into the building envelop separately and use weather file in the present (2017; and, secondly, evaluation of the effect of future climate change on the performance of PCMs by analyzing energy saving potentials of PCMs with 2020, 2050 and 2080 weather data. The results show that the inclusion of PCM into the building envelope is a promising strategy to increase the energy performance in buildings during both heating and cooling seasons in Seoul, Tokyo and Hong Kong under future climate conditions. The energy savings achieved by using PCMs in those regions are electricity savings of 4.48–8.21%, 3.81–9.69%, and 1.94–5.15%, and gas savings of 1.65–16.59%, 7.60–61.76%, and 62.07–93.33% in Seoul, Tokyo and Hong Kong, respectively, for the years 2017, 2020, 2050 and 2080. In addition, BioPCM and RUBITHERMPCM are the most efficient for improving thermal performance and saving energy in buildings in the tested regions and years.

  17. Self-Assessment in Librarianship: Current Practices and Future Possibilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ania Dymarz

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The authors of this qualitative study set out to investigate self-assessment practices within the library profession. The researchers conducted semi-structured interviews with a purposeful sample of nine librarians coming from a range of library settings and possessing a diversity of library experience. Interviews were then transcribed and coded in NVIVO to identify emergent themes. This paper details some of the results of that study, highlighting motivations, limitations, and strategies with regard to self-assessment. The findings present a summary of a range of approaches to the practice of assessment as reported by the interviewees. One area of possible growth for our profession, as highlighted by the findings, is in the development of peer networks as a support for the individual practice of self-assessment. While the results of this small case study cannot be generalized, the authors hope these preliminary findings can open up the conversation around self-assessment both for individual librarians and for those librarians and managers working to shape their workplace culture.

  18. Assessing the role of internal climate variability in Antarctica's contribution to future sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.

    2017-12-01

    The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) has the potential to be a major contributor to future sea-level rise (SLR). Current projections of SLR due to AIS mass loss remain highly uncertain. Better understanding of how ice sheets respond to future climate forcing and variability is essential for assessing the long-term risk of SLR. However, the predictability of future climate is limited by uncertainties from emission scenarios, model structural differences, and the internal variability that is inherently generated within the fully coupled climate system. Among those uncertainties, the impact of internal variability on the AIS changes has not been explicitly assessed. In this study, we quantify the effect of internal variability on the AIS evolutions by using climate fields from two large-ensemble experiments using the Community Earth System Model to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. We find that internal variability of climate fields, particularly atmospheric fields, among ensemble members leads to significantly different AIS responses. Our results show that the internal variability can cause about 80 mm differences of AIS contribution to SLR by 2100 compared to the ensemble-mean contribution of 380-450 mm. Moreover, using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in the ice sheet model does not produce realistic simulations of the ice loss. Instead, it significantly delays the onset of retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet for up to 20 years and significantly underestimates the AIS contribution to SLR by 0.07-0.11 m in 2100 and up to 0.34 m in the 2250's. Therefore, because the uncertainty caused by internal variability is irreducible, we seek to highlight a critical need to assess the role of internal variability in projecting the AIS loss over the next few centuries. By quantifying the impact of internal variability on AIS contribution to SLR, policy makers can obtain more robust estimates of SLR and implement suitable adaptation strategies.

  19. The potential of tidal barrages and lagoons to manage future coastal flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prime, Thomas; Wolf, Judith; Lyddon, Charlotte; Plater, Andrew; Brown, Jennifer

    2017-04-01

    In the face of a changing climate, adaptation and mitigation measures are important for coastal communities that seek to maintain their resilience to extreme events. Measures that can be classed as being both adaptation and mitigation can doubly contribute to this. Tide barrages and lagoons have the capacity to generate electricity from the rise and fall of the tide, which over the assets lifetime would contribute significantly towards emission reduction targets and towards a low carbon economy. In addition to electricity generation, the barrage or lagoon can also act as a flood defence during extreme events. This means that coastal communities protected by the barrage will have adaptation benefits to the increasing frequency of storm surges that are a result of sea-level rise. Finally, the barrage also has the potential to act as a transport link with vehicles able to cross, reducing travel times and emissions. The research project RISES-AM focuses on the implications of the higher end climate scenarios, particularly those with a global average warming that is greater than 2 ⁰C with respect to pre-industrial temperatures. RISES-AM aims to produce a better quantification of the impacts and vulnerabilities associated with these high end climate scenarios, and show that adaptation to them is possible at an affordable cost when compared to the increase in risk resulting from them. We investigated the physical and economic impact of extreme flood events of on the Mersey Estuary and surrounding areas. It is thought the Mersey Estuary is likely to be more sensitive to changes in forcing factors in the future than in the past where industrial impacts where the main drivers of change. Extreme events were simulated, for the present day and in 2100 where high impact emission scenarios have resulted in SLR ranging from 0.71 m to 1.80 m depending on the higher end emission scenario selected. If built, the barrage in the Estuary or lagoon in surrounding areas such as the

  20. Helping a community control its future: Potential negotiating packages and benefits for an MRS host

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helvey, E.; Kane, D.; Trebules, V.

    1993-01-01

    The voluntary sitting process for the Monitored Retrievable Storage (MRS) facility set forth in the Nuclear Waste Policy Amendments Act (NWPAA) of 1987 provides a potential host community a unique opportunity to improve its present situation and to gain greater control over its future. To take full advantage of that opportunity throughout the life of the facility, an interested host must bring two things to the negotiating table: (1) a clear understanding of the special benefits, concerns and impacts associated with siting a controversial facility along with a detailed plan for addressing the requirements and impacts of such a facility; and (2) a vision of what the community wants to be in the future and list of specific measures it might achieve through negotiations that would help it realize that future. This paper investigates potential negotiating options a host might develop that, while addressing the impacts arena, also set forth terms by which the host can use the MRS to gain greater control over its unique set of resources and needs. The first section of this paper highlights the major concerns that a community might raise when debating whether to host an MRS and lists generic mitigation techniques that address those concerns. The second section pulls those mitigation techniques together into negotiating packages to show how the same concerns can be addressed differently depending on the strengths, weaknesses, and priorities of two different hypothetical host communities

  1. Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Retel, Valesca; Retel, V.P.; Joore, M.A.; Rutgers, E.J.; van Harten, Willem H.

    2012-01-01

    Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and

  2. Service Quality and Customer Satisfaction: An Assessment and Future Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernon, Peter; Nitecki, Danuta A.; Altman, Ellen

    1999-01-01

    Reviews the literature of library and information science to examine issues related to service quality and customer satisfaction in academic libraries. Discusses assessment, the application of a business model to higher education, a multiple constituency approach, decision areas regarding service quality, resistance to service quality, and future…

  3. Future of health technology assessment studies in gene and cell ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    However, as should be noted, health care decisions need to be based on Health Technology Assessments (HTA) that should be based on objective criteria as efficacy, effectiveness, quality, safety, psychological, social, ethical, organisational and professional implications as well as cost effectiveness and further macro ...

  4. Assessment of the Economic Potential of Distributed Wind in Colorado, Minnesota, and New York

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCabe, Kevin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin O. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mooney, Meghan E. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2018-01-03

    This work seeks to identify current and future spatial distributions of economic potential for behind-the-meter distributed wind, serving primarily rural or suburban homes, farms, and manufacturing facilities in Colorado, Minnesota, and New York. These states were identified by technical experts based on their current favorability for distributed wind deployment. We use NREL's Distributed Wind Market Demand Model (dWind) (Lantz et al. 2017; Sigrin et al. 2016) to identify and rank counties in each of the states by their overall and per capita potential. From this baseline assessment, we also explore how and where improvements in cost, performance, and other market sensitivities affect distributed wind potential.

  5. Quantifying the effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application to future flood risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Youhei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

    2018-01-01

    This study represents the first attempt to quantify the effects of autonomous adaptation on the projection of global flood hazards and to assess future flood risk by including this effect. A vulnerability scenario, which varies according to the autonomous adaptation effect for conventional disaster mitigation efforts, was developed based on historical vulnerability values derived from flood damage records and a river inundation simulation. Coupled with general circulation model outputs and future socioeconomic scenarios, potential future flood fatalities and economic loss were estimated. By including the effect of autonomous adaptation, our multimodel ensemble estimates projected a 2.0% decrease in potential flood fatalities and an 821% increase in potential economic losses by 2100 under the highest emission scenario together with a large population increase. Vulnerability changes reduced potential flood consequences by 64%-72% in terms of potential fatalities and 28%-42% in terms of potential economic losses by 2100. Although socioeconomic changes made the greatest contribution to the potential increased consequences of future floods, about a half of the increase of potential economic losses was mitigated by autonomous adaptation. There is a clear and positive relationship between the global temperature increase from the pre-industrial level and the estimated mean potential flood economic loss, while there is a negative relationship with potential fatalities due to the autonomous adaptation effect. A bootstrapping analysis suggests a significant increase in potential flood fatalities (+5.7%) without any adaptation if the temperature increases by 1.5 °C-2.0 °C, whereas the increase in potential economic loss (+0.9%) was not significant. Our method enables the effects of autonomous adaptation and additional adaptation efforts on climate-induced hazards to be distinguished, which would be essential for the accurate estimation of the cost of adaptation to

  6. An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mercure, Jean-François; Salas, Pablo

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an assessment of global economic energy potentials for all major natural energy resources. This work is based on both an extensive literature review and calculations using natural resource assessment data. Economic potentials are presented in the form of cost-supply curves, in terms of energy flows for renewable energy sources, or fixed amounts for fossil and nuclear resources, with strong emphasis on uncertainty, using a consistent methodology that allow direct comparisons to be made. In order to interpolate through available resource assessment data and associated uncertainty, a theoretical framework and a computational methodology are given based on statistical properties of different types of resources, justified empirically by the data, and used throughout. This work aims to provide a global database for natural energy resources ready to integrate into models of energy systems, enabling to introduce at the same time uncertainty over natural resource assessments. The supplementary material provides theoretical details and tables of data and parameters that enable this extensive database to be adapted to a variety of energy systems modelling frameworks. -- Highlights: ► Global energy potentials for all major energy resources are reported. ► Theory and methodology for calculating economic energy potentials is given. ► An uncertainty analysis for all energy economic potentials is carried out.

  7. Assessment of the physiological potential of super sweet corn seeds

    OpenAIRE

    Alvarenga,Renata Oliveira; Marcos-Filho,Julio; Timóteo,Tathiana Silva

    2013-01-01

    The assessment of physiological potential is essential in seed quality control programs. This study compared the sensitivity of different procedures for evaluating super sweet corn seed vigor, focusing on the primary root protrusion test. Six seed lots, each of the SWB 551 and SWB 585 hybrids, were used. Seed physiological potential was evaluated by germination and vigor tests (speed of germination, traditional and saturated salt accelerated aging, cold test, seedling length, seedling emergen...

  8. Potential ecological risk assessment and predicting zinc accumulation in soils

    OpenAIRE

    Baran, Agnieszka; Wieczorek, Jerzy; Mazurek, Ryszard; Urbański, Krzysztof; Klimkowicz-Pawlas, Agnieszka

    2017-01-01

    The aims of this study were to investigate zinc content in the studied soils; evaluate the efficiency of geostatistics in presenting spatial variability of zinc in the soils; assess bioavailable forms of zinc in the soils and to assess soil–zinc binding ability; and to estimate the potential ecological risk of zinc in soils. The study was conducted in southern Poland, in the Malopolska Province. This area is characterized by a great diversity of geological structures and types of land use and...

  9. NASA advanced space photovoltaic technology-status, potential and future mission applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flood, Dennis J.; Piszczor, Michael, Jr.; Stella, Paul M.; Bennett, Gary L.

    1989-01-01

    The NASA program in space photovoltaic research and development encompasses a wide range of emerging options for future space power systems, and includes both cell and array technology development. The long range goals are to develop technology capable of achieving 300 W/kg for planar arrays, and 300 W/sq m for concentrator arrays. InP and GaAs planar and concentrator cell technologies are under investigation for their potential high efficiency and good radiation resistance. The Advanced Photovoltaic Solar Array (APSA) program is a near term effort aimed at demonstrating 130 W/kg beginning of life specific power using thin (62 micrometer) silicon cells. It is intended to be technology transparent to future high efficiency cells and provides the baseline for development of the 300 W/kg array.

  10. On evaluation of assessments of accruals of future dismantling costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Labor, Bea [B D Projects 2013, Gdansk (Poland); Lindskog, Staffan [Swedish Radiation Safety Authority, Solna (Sweden)

    2013-07-01

    A major prerequisite in order for civilian commercial nuclear energy production to qualify as sustainable energy production is that systems for the management of the nuclear waste legacy are in operation. These waste types are present in a range from very low short lived waste (VLLW) to long lived high level waste (HLW) (including the used nuclear fuel). The second prerequisite is that financial responsibilities or other constraints must not be passed on to coming generations. The first condition for qualification corresponds to the Polluters Pays Principle (PPP) which demands that the responsibility for the waste management rests solely with the polluter. The second qualification corresponds to the principle of fairness between generations and thus concerns the appropriate distribution of responsibilities between the generations. It is important to note that these two conditions must be met simultaneously, and that compliance with both is a necessary prerequisite in order for commercial use of nuclear power to qualify as a semi-sustainable energy source. Financial and technical planning for dismantling and decommissioning of nuclear installations cannot be regarded as successful unless it rests upon a distinctive way to describe and explain the well-founded values of different groups of stakeholders. This cumbersome task can be underpinned by transparent and easy to grasp models for calculation and estimation of future environmental liabilities. It essential that a systematic classification is done of all types of costs and that an effort is done to evaluate the precision level in the cost estimates. In this paper, a systematic and transparent way to develop a parametric approach that rest upon basic accounting standards is combined with data about younger stakeholder's values towards decommissioning and dismantling of nuclear installation. The former entity rests upon theoretical and practical methods from business administration, whilst the latter is based

  11. On evaluation of assessments of accruals of future dismantling costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Labor, Bea; Lindskog, Staffan

    2013-01-01

    A major prerequisite in order for civilian commercial nuclear energy production to qualify as sustainable energy production is that systems for the management of the nuclear waste legacy are in operation. These waste types are present in a range from very low short lived waste (VLLW) to long lived high level waste (HLW) (including the used nuclear fuel). The second prerequisite is that financial responsibilities or other constraints must not be passed on to coming generations. The first condition for qualification corresponds to the Polluters Pays Principle (PPP) which demands that the responsibility for the waste management rests solely with the polluter. The second qualification corresponds to the principle of fairness between generations and thus concerns the appropriate distribution of responsibilities between the generations. It is important to note that these two conditions must be met simultaneously, and that compliance with both is a necessary prerequisite in order for commercial use of nuclear power to qualify as a semi-sustainable energy source. Financial and technical planning for dismantling and decommissioning of nuclear installations cannot be regarded as successful unless it rests upon a distinctive way to describe and explain the well-founded values of different groups of stakeholders. This cumbersome task can be underpinned by transparent and easy to grasp models for calculation and estimation of future environmental liabilities. It essential that a systematic classification is done of all types of costs and that an effort is done to evaluate the precision level in the cost estimates. In this paper, a systematic and transparent way to develop a parametric approach that rest upon basic accounting standards is combined with data about younger stakeholder's values towards decommissioning and dismantling of nuclear installation. The former entity rests upon theoretical and practical methods from business administration, whilst the latter is based

  12. Future production and utilisation of biomass in Sweden: potentials and CO2 mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boerjesson, P.; Gustavsson, L.; Christersson, L.; Linder, S.

    1997-01-01

    Swedish biomass production potential could be increased significantly if new production methods, such as optimised fertilisation, were to be used. Optimised fertilisation on 25% of Swedish forest land and the use of stem wood could almost double the biomass potential from forestry compared with no fertilisation, as both logging residues and large quantities of excess stem wood not needed for industrial purposes could be used for energy purposes. Together with energy crops and straw from agriculture, the total Swedish biomass potential would be about 230 TWh/yr or half the current Swedish energy supply if the demand for stem wood for building and industrial purposes were the same as today. The new production methods are assumed not to cause any significant negative impact on the local environment. The cost of utilising stem wood produced with optimised fertilisation for energy purposes has not been analysed and needs further investigation. Besides replacing fossil fuels and, thus, reducing current Swedish CO 2 emissions by about 65%, this amount of biomass is enough to produce electricity equivalent to 20% of current power production. Biomass-based electricity is produced preferably through co-generation using district heating systems in densely populated regions, and pulp industries in forest regions. Alcohols for transportation and stand-alone power production are preferably produced in less densely populated regions with excess biomass. A high intensity in biomass production would reduce biomass transportation demands. There are uncertainties regarding the future demand for stem wood for building and industrial purposes, the amount of arable land available for energy crop production and future yields. These factors will influence Swedish biomass potential and earlier estimates of the potential vary from 15 to 125 TWh/yr. (author)

  13. Methodological considerations and future insights for 24-hour dietary recall assessment in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Emma; Bradley, Jennifer

    2018-03-01

    Dietary assessment has come under much criticism of late to the extent that it has been questioned whether self-reported methods of dietary assessment are worth doing at all. Widespread under-reporting of energy intake, limitations due to memory, changes to intake due to the burden of recording and social desirability bias all impact significantly on the accuracy of the dietary information collected. Under-reporting of energy intakes has long been recognized as a problem in dietary research with doubly labeled water measures of energy expenditure uncovering significant under-reporting of energy intakes across different populations and different dietary assessment methods. In this review we focus on dietary assessment with children with particular attention on the 24-hour dietary recall method. We look at the level of under-reporting of energy intakes and how this tends to change with age, gender and body mass index. We discuss potential alternatives to self-reported (or proxy-reported) dietary assessment methods with children, such as biomarkers, and how these do not enable the collection of information important to public health nutrition such as the cooking method, the mixture of foods eaten together or the context in which the food is consumed. We conclude that despite all of the challenges and flaws, the data collected using self-reported dietary assessment methods are extremely valuable. Research into dietary assessment methodology has resulted in significant increases in our understanding of the limitations of self-reported methods and progressive improvements in the accuracy of the data collected. Hence, future investment in dietary surveillance and in improving self-reported methods of intake can make vital contributions to our understanding of dietary intakes and are thus warranted. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. The potential distribution of bioenergy crops in Europe under present and future climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tuck, Gill; Glendining, Margaret J.; Smith, Pete; Wattenbach, Martin; House, Jo I.

    2006-01-01

    We have derived maps of the potential distribution of 26 promising bioenergy crops in Europe, based on simple rules for suitable climatic conditions and elevation. Crops suitable for temperate and Mediterranean climates were selected from four groups: oilseeds (e.g. oilseed rape, sunflower), starch crops (e.g. potatoes), cereals (e.g. barley) and solid biofuel crops (e.g. sorghum, Miscanthus). The impact of climate change under different scenarios and GCMs on the potential future distribution of these crops was determined, based on predicted future climatic conditions. Climate scenarios based on four IPCC SRES emission scenarios, A1FI, A2, B1 and B2, implemented by four global climate models, HadCM3, CSIRO2, PCM and CGCM2, were used. The potential distribution of temperate oilseeds, cereals, starch crops and solid biofuels is predicted to increase in northern Europe by the 2080s, due to increasing temperatures, and decrease in southern Europe (e.g. Spain, Portugal, southern France, Italy, and Greece) due to increased drought. Mediterranean oil and solid biofuel crops, currently restricted to southern Europe, are predicted to extend further north due to higher summer temperatures. Effects become more pronounced with time and are greatest under the A1FI scenario and for models predicting the greatest climate forcing. Different climate models produce different regional patterns. All models predict that bioenergy crop production in Spain is especially vulnerable to climate change, with many temperate crops predicted to decline dramatically by the 2080s. The choice of bioenergy crops in southern Europe will be severely reduced in future unless measures are taken to adapt to climate change. (author)

  15. Regional Landslide Hazard Assessment Considering Potential Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, S.; Holcombe, E.; Pianosi, F.; Wagener, T.

    2016-12-01

    Landslides have many negative economic and societal impacts, including the potential for significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. These risks are likely to be exacerbated in the future by a combination of climatic and socio-economic factors. Climate change, for example, is expected to increase the occurrence of rainfall-triggered landslides, because a warmer atmosphere tends to produce more high intensity rainfall events. Prediction of future changes in rainfall, however, is subject to high levels of uncertainty, making it challenging for decision-makers to identify the areas and populations that are most vulnerable to landslide hazards. In this study, we demonstrate how a physically-based model - the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model (CHASM) - can be used together with Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to explore the underlying factors controlling the spatial distribution of landslide risks across a regional landscape, while also accounting for deep uncertainty around potential future rainfall triggers. We demonstrate how GSA can be used to analyse CHASM which in turn represents the spatial variability of hillslope characteristics in the study region, while accounting for other uncertainties. Results are presented in the form of landslide hazard maps, utilising high-resolution digital elevation datasets for a case study in St Lucia in the Caribbean. Our findings about spatial landslide hazard drivers have important implications for data collection approaches and for long-term decision-making about land management practices.

  16. The potential role of waste biomass in the future urban electricity system

    OpenAIRE

    Jiang, Yu; Werf, van der, Edwin; Ierland, van, Ekko C.; Keesman, Karel J.

    2017-01-01

    The share of intermittent renewable electricity (IRE) in the future urban electricity system is expected to increase significantly. Sufficient back-up capacity is needed in the period when IRE output is low. Bioenergy is both dispatchable and carbon-neutral, and can hence be a promising option to back up IRE. The objective of this study is to explore the potential of urban waste biomass in backing up IRE in an urban electricity system. An urban electricity system model is developed to project...

  17. Gene expression profiling in MDS and AML: potential and future avenues

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Theilgaard-Mönch, K; Boultwood, J; Ferrari, S

    2011-01-01

    Today, the classification systems for myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) and acute myeloid leukemia (AML) already incorporate cytogenetic and molecular genetic aberrations in an attempt to better reflect disease biology. However, in many MDS/AML patients no genetic aberrations have been identified yet...... with regard to diagnosis, prediction of clinical outcome, discovery of novel subclasses and identification of novel therapeutic targets and novel drugs. As many challenges remain ahead, we discuss the pitfalls of this technology and its potential including future integrative studies with other genomics...

  18. Realistic Energy Saving Potential of Sleep Mode for Existing and Future Mobile Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Micallef, Gilbert; Saker, Louai; Elayoubi, Salah Eddine

    2012-01-01

    potential savings, and emphasize some of the expected limitations. Since site measurements show that the energy consumption of base station sites is largely load-independent, this makes such a feature highly effective for reducing the energy consumption of mobile networks during hours of low traffic. After......This paper presents an extensive overview on an energy saving feature referred to as ‘site sleep mode’, designed for existing and future mobile broadband networks. In addition to providing a detailed understanding of the main concept, the paper also provides various studies and results to highlight...

  19. Surviving the future academic libraries, quality and assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Munde, Gail

    2009-01-01

    Every academic library strives to make improvements - in its services, its effectiveness, and its contributions to overall university success. Every librarian wants to improve library quality, but few are knowledgeable or enthusiastic about the means and mechanisms of quality improvement. This book assists librarians to make sense of data collection, assessment, and comparative evaluation as stepping stones to transformative quality improvement. Creating value lies in a library's ability to understand, communicate and measure what matters to users, and what can be measured can be managed to successful outcomes. Complex and fragmented subject matter is synthesized into clear and logical presentation Focuses on current research and best practices International in scope.

  20. The Future of Preschool Prevention, Assessment, and Intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudziak, Jim; Archangeli, Christopher

    2017-07-01

    Preschoolers are in the most rapid period of brain development. Environment shapes the structure and function of the developing brain. Promoting brain health requires cultivation of healthy environments at home, school, and in the community. This improves the emotional-behavioral and physical health of all children, can prevent problems in children at risk, and can alter the trajectory of children already suffering. For clinicians, this starts with assessing and treating the entire family, equipping parents with the principles of parent management training, and incorporating wellness prescriptions for nutrition, physical activity, music, and mindfulness. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. In vitro assessment of the antimicrobial potential of honey on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Honey produced by honeybees (Apis mellifera) is one of the ancient traditional medicines used for treatment and prevention of various illnesses. Objective: To assess the antimicrobial potential of honey on some common bacterial pathogen. Methods: This experimental study was conducted in Jimma University ...

  2. Assessment of dairy wastewater treatment and its potential for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The extent of pollution of dairy wastewater treated in a septic tank and its potential for biogas production was investigated. Performance of the existing treatment system was assessed through characterization of both raw and treated effluents. From the analysis parameters likeChemical Oxygen Demand (COD), Biochemical ...

  3. Assessment of the Larvicidal potentials of Thymol derivatives on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DR. MIKE HORSFALL

    *Corresponding author: E-mail. Assessment of the Larvicidal potentials of Thymol derivatives on Anopheles mosquitoes. 1JACK, I R; 1OKOROSAYE-ORUBITE, K; 2BOBMANUEL, R B. 1Department of Chemistry, Rivers State University of Science and Technology, P.M.B. 5080, Port Harcourt, Nigeria. 2Department of Biology ...

  4. Potential economic impact assessment for cattle parasites in Mexico review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Here, economic losses caused by cattle parasites in Mexico were estimated on an annual basis. The main factors taken into consideration for this assessment included the total number of animals at risk, potential detrimental effects of parasitism on milk production or weight gain, and records of cond...

  5. Potential human health risk assessment of heavy metals intake via ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Potential human health risk assessment of heavy metals intake via consumption of some leafy vegetables obtained from four market in Lagos Metropolis, Nigeria. ... This result reflected the risk associated with exposure for the period of life expectancy considered, and the inhabitants are highly exposed to health risks ...

  6. On the assessment of cross-border regions' development potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bilchak Mikhail

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This article sets out to assess the potential of cross-border region development on the basis of theoretical and methodological materials. The study examines the Kaliningrad region and Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship. The article is focused on the modelling of interindustry balance and export/import functions of border territories.

  7. Assessing the Potential of Mathematics Textbooks to Promote Deep Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shield, Malcolm; Dole, Shelley

    2013-01-01

    Curriculum documents for mathematics emphasise the importance of promoting depth of knowledge rather than shallow coverage of the curriculum. In this paper, we report on a study that explored the analysis of junior secondary mathematics textbooks to assess their potential to assist in teaching and learning aimed at building and applying deep…

  8. Assessment of the Diagnostic Potential of Clinotech TB Screen Test ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Clinotech TB Screen test, a 3rd generation multi-antigen rapid chromatographic immunoassay for detection of IgG antibodies in serum against recombinant protein antigens 38kDa, 16kDa and 6kDa, was assessed for its diagnostic potential for diagnosis of active pulmonary TB in routine TB control programme in Abia ...

  9. Maintaining the Uranium Resources Assessment Data System and assessing the 1990 US uranium potential resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCammon, R.B.; Finch, W.I.; Grundy, W.D.; Pierson, C.T.

    1991-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Uranium Resource Assessment Data System contains information on potential resources (undiscovered) of uranium in the United States. The purpose of this report is: (1) to describe the work carried out to maintain and update the Uranium Resource Assessment Data (URAD) System, (2) to assess the 1990 US uranium potential resources in various cost categories, and (3) to identify problems and to recommend changes that are needed to improve the URAD System. 13 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs

  10. Potential future exposure of European land transport infrastructure to rainfall-induced landslides throughout the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlögl, Matthias; Matulla, Christoph

    2018-04-01

    In the face of climate change, the assessment of land transport infrastructure exposure towards adverse climate events is of major importance for Europe's economic prosperity and social wellbeing. In this study, a climate index estimating rainfall patterns which trigger landslides in central Europe is analysed until the end of this century and compared to present-day conditions. The analysis of the potential future development of landslide risk is based on an ensemble of dynamically downscaled climate projections which are driven by the SRES A1B socio-economic scenario. Resulting regional-scale climate change projections across central Europe are concatenated with Europe's road and railway network. Results indicate overall increases of landslide occurrence. While flat terrain at low altitudes exhibits an increase of about 1 more potentially landslide-inducing rainfall period per year until the end of this century, higher elevated regions are more affected and show increases of up to 14 additional periods. This general spatial distribution emerges in the near future (2021-2050) but becomes more pronounced in the remote future (2071-2100). Since largest increases are to be found in Alsace, potential impacts of an increasing amount of landslides are discussed using the example of a case study covering the Black Forest mountain range in Baden-Württemberg by further enriching the climate information with additional geodata. The findings derived are suitable to support political decision makers and European authorities in transport, freight and logistics by offering detailed information on which parts of Europe's ground transport network are at particularly high risk concerning landslide activity.

  11. Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-12-15

    This report documents the future human actions, FHA, considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Site (see further the Main report /SKB 2011/). The purpose of this report is to provide an account of general considerations concerning FHA, the methodology applied in SR-Site to assess FHA, the aspects of FHA needed to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository and to select and analyse representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis. The main focus of this report is a time period when institutional control has ceased to be effective, thereby permitting inadvertent intrusion. However, a brief discussion of the earlier period when the repository has been closed, sealed and continuously kept under institutional control is also provided. General The potential exposure to large quantities of radiotoxic material is an inescapable consequence of the deposition of spent nuclear fuel in a final repository, and consequently intrusion into the repository needs to be considered in repository design and safety assessment. In accordance with ICRP recommendations /ICRP 2000/, intrusion in the post-closure phase of institutional control and beyond is primarily prevented through the design of the repository. In addition to that there will presumably continue to be safeguards measures, preservation of information (record keeping) and possibly some sort of markers placed at the site. During the institutional control period, activities at the site have to be restricted or directed if they have the potential to interfere with or hinder surveillance of the site, but this does not necessarily rule out all forms of access to the area. Also the fact that the repository contains fissile materials is an important aspect. Control of safeguards measures will most likely be upheld by national as well as international agencies. Furthermore, the

  12. Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-12-01

    This report documents the future human actions, FHA, considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Site (see further the Main report /SKB 2011/). The purpose of this report is to provide an account of general considerations concerning FHA, the methodology applied in SR-Site to assess FHA, the aspects of FHA needed to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository and to select and analyse representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis. The main focus of this report is a time period when institutional control has ceased to be effective, thereby permitting inadvertent intrusion. However, a brief discussion of the earlier period when the repository has been closed, sealed and continuously kept under institutional control is also provided. General The potential exposure to large quantities of radiotoxic material is an inescapable consequence of the deposition of spent nuclear fuel in a final repository, and consequently intrusion into the repository needs to be considered in repository design and safety assessment. In accordance with ICRP recommendations /ICRP 2000/, intrusion in the post-closure phase of institutional control and beyond is primarily prevented through the design of the repository. In addition to that there will presumably continue to be safeguards measures, preservation of information (record keeping) and possibly some sort of markers placed at the site. During the institutional control period, activities at the site have to be restricted or directed if they have the potential to interfere with or hinder surveillance of the site, but this does not necessarily rule out all forms of access to the area. Also the fact that the repository contains fissile materials is an important aspect. Control of safeguards measures will most likely be upheld by national as well as international agencies. Furthermore, the

  13. Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: Comparative aspects and future perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorne, J.L.C.M.; Fink-Gremmels, J.

    2013-01-01

    Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. - Highlights: ► Principles of human and animal health risk assessment. ► Data gaps for each step of animal health risk assessment. ► Implications of animal risk assessment on human risk assessment. ► Future perspectives on chemical risk assessment

  14. Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: Comparative aspects and future perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dorne, J.L.C.M., E-mail: jean-lou.dorne@efsa.europa.eu [Emerging Risk Unit, Via Carlo Magno 1A, 43126 Parma (Italy); Fink-Gremmels, J. [Utrecht University, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Yalelaan 104, 3584 CM Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2013-08-01

    Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. - Highlights: ► Principles of human and animal health risk assessment. ► Data gaps for each step of animal health risk assessment. ► Implications of animal risk assessment on human risk assessment. ► Future perspectives on chemical risk assessment.

  15. A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. P. Guillod

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of risk-based approaches often requires large sets of extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present such a large set of hydro-meteorological time series for recent past and future conditions for the United Kingdom based on weather@home 2, a modelling framework consisting of a global climate model (GCM driven by observed or projected sea surface temperature (SST and sea ice which is downscaled to 25 km over the European domain by a regional climate model (RCM. Sets of 100 time series are generated for each of (i a historical baseline (1900–2006, (ii five near-future scenarios (2020–2049 and (iii five far-future scenarios (2070–2099. The five scenarios in each future time slice all follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5 and sample the range of sea surface temperature and sea ice changes from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. Validation of the historical baseline highlights good performance for temperature and potential evaporation, but substantial seasonal biases in mean precipitation, which are corrected using a linear approach. For extremes in low precipitation over a long accumulation period ( > 3 months and shorter-duration high precipitation (1–30 days, the time series generally represents past statistics well. Future projections show small precipitation increases in winter but large decreases in summer on average, leading to an overall drying, consistently with the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09 but larger in magnitude than the latter. Both drought and high-precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and

  16. A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillod, Benoit P.; Jones, Richard G.; Dadson, Simon J.; Coxon, Gemma; Bussi, Gianbattista; Freer, James; Kay, Alison L.; Massey, Neil R.; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Wallom, David C. H.; Allen, Myles R.; Hall, Jim W.

    2018-01-01

    Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of risk-based approaches often requires large sets of extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present such a large set of hydro-meteorological time series for recent past and future conditions for the United Kingdom based on weather@home 2, a modelling framework consisting of a global climate model (GCM) driven by observed or projected sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice which is downscaled to 25 km over the European domain by a regional climate model (RCM). Sets of 100 time series are generated for each of (i) a historical baseline (1900-2006), (ii) five near-future scenarios (2020-2049) and (iii) five far-future scenarios (2070-2099). The five scenarios in each future time slice all follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and sample the range of sea surface temperature and sea ice changes from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. Validation of the historical baseline highlights good performance for temperature and potential evaporation, but substantial seasonal biases in mean precipitation, which are corrected using a linear approach. For extremes in low precipitation over a long accumulation period ( > 3 months) and shorter-duration high precipitation (1-30 days), the time series generally represents past statistics well. Future projections show small precipitation increases in winter but large decreases in summer on average, leading to an overall drying, consistently with the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) but larger in magnitude than the latter. Both drought and high-precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in most regions

  17. Potential impact of climate change to the future streamflow of Yellow River Basin based on CMIP5 data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaoli; Zheng, Weifei; Ren, Liliang; Zhang, Mengru; Wang, Yuqian; Liu, Yi; Yuan, Fei; Jiang, Shanhu

    2018-02-01

    The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is the largest river basin in northern China, which has suffering water scarcity and drought hazard for many years. Therefore, assessments the potential impacts of climate change on the future streamflow in this basin is very important for local policy and planning on food security. In this study, based on the observations of 101 meteorological stations in YRB, equidistant CDF matching (EDCDFm) statistical downscaling approach was applied to eight climate models under two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model with 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution was developed based on downscaled fields for simulating streamflow in the future period over YRB. The results show that with the global warming trend, the annual streamflow will reduced about 10 % during the period of 2021-2050, compared to the base period of 1961-1990 in YRB. There should be suitable water resources planning to meet the demands of growing populations and future climate changing in this region.

  18. Minimum and Maximum Potential Contributions to Future Sea Level Rise from Polar Ice Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deconto, R. M.; Pollard, D.

    2017-12-01

    New climate and ice-sheet modeling, calibrated to past changes in sea-level, is painting a stark picture of the future fate of the great polar ice sheets if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. This is especially true for Antarctica, where a substantial fraction of the ice sheet rests on bedrock more than 500-meters below sea level. Here, we explore the sensitivity of the polar ice sheets to a warming atmosphere and ocean under a range of future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The ice sheet-climate-ocean model used here considers time-evolving changes in surface mass balance and sub-ice oceanic melting, ice deformation, grounding line retreat on reverse-sloped bedrock (Marine Ice Sheet Instability), and newly added processes including hydrofracturing of ice shelves in response to surface meltwater and rain, and structural collapse of thick, marine-terminating ice margins with tall ice-cliff faces (Marine Ice Cliff Instability). The simulations improve on previous work by using 1) improved atmospheric forcing from a Regional Climate Model and 2) a much wider range of model physical parameters within the bounds of modern observations of ice dynamical processes (particularly calving rates) and paleo constraints on past ice-sheet response to warming. Approaches to more precisely define the climatic thresholds capable of triggering rapid and potentially irreversible ice-sheet retreat are also discussed, as is the potential for aggressive mitigation strategies like those discussed at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21) to substantially reduce the risk of extreme sea-level rise. These results, including physics that consider both ice deformation (creep) and calving (mechanical failure of marine terminating ice) expand on previously estimated limits of maximum rates of future sea level rise based solely on kinematic constraints of glacier flow. At the high end, the new results show the potential for more than 2m of global mean sea level rise by 2100

  19. Harmonization of future needs for dermal exposure assessment and modeling : a workshop report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Maidment, S.; Mcclaflin, J.L.; Fehrenbacher, M.C.

    2001-01-01

    Dermal exposure assessment and modeling is still in early phases of development. This article presents the results of a workshop organized to harmonize the future needs in this field. Methods for dermal exposure assessment either assess the mass of contaminant that is transferred to the skin, or the

  20. Probing features in inflaton potential and reionization history with future CMB space observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazra, Dhiraj Kumar; Paoletti, Daniela; Ballardini, Mario; Finelli, Fabio; Shafieloo, Arman; Smoot, George F.; Starobinsky, Alexei A.

    2018-02-01

    We consider the prospects of probing features in the primordial power spectrum with future Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) polarization measurements. In the scope of the inflationary scenario, such features in the spectrum can be produced by local non-smooth pieces in an inflaton potential (smooth and quasi-flat in general) which in turn may originate from fast phase transitions during inflation in other quantum fields interacting with the inflaton. They can fit some outliers in the CMB temperature power spectrum which are unaddressed within the standard inflationary ΛCDM model. We consider Wiggly Whipped Inflation (WWI) as a theoretical framework leading to improvements in the fit to the Planck 2015 temperature and polarization data in comparison with the standard inflationary models, although not at a statistically significant level. We show that some type of features in the potential within the WWI models, leading to oscillations in the primordial power spectrum that extend to intermediate and small scales can be constrained with high confidence (at 3σ or higher confidence level) by an instrument as the Cosmic ORigins Explorer (CORE). In order to investigate the possible confusion between inflationary features and footprints from the reionization era, we consider an extended reionization history with monotonic increase of free electrons with decrease in redshift. We discuss the present constraints on this model of extended reionization and future predictions with CORE. We also project, to what extent, this extended reionization can create confusion in identifying inflationary features in the data.

  1. 'Underutilised' agricultural land: its definitions, potential use for future biomass production and its environmental implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyake, Saori; Bargiel, Damian

    2017-04-01

    A growing bioeconomy and increased demand for biomass products on food, health, fibre, industrial products and energy require land resources for feedstock production. It has resulted in significant environmental and socio-economic challenges on a global scale. As a result, consideration of such effects of land use change (LUC) from biomass production (particularly for biofuel feedstock) has emerged as an important area of policy and research, and several potential solutions have been proposed to minimise such adverse LUC effects. One of these solutions is the use of lands that are not in production or not suitable for food crop production, such as 'marginal', 'degraded', 'abandoned' and 'surplus' agricultural lands for future biomass production. The terms referring to these lands are usually associated with the potential production of 'marginal crops', which can grow in marginal conditions (e.g. poor soil fertility, low rainfall, drought) without much water and agrochemical inputs. In our research, we referred to these lands as 'underutilised' agricultural land and attempted to define them for our case study areas located in Australia and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Our goal is to identify lands that can be used for future biomass production and to evaluate their environmental implications, particularly impacts related to biodiversity, water and soil at a landscape scale. The identification of these lands incorporates remote sensing and spatially explicit approaches. Our findings confirmed that there was no universal or single definition of the term 'underutilised' agricultural land as the definitions significantly vary by country and region depending not only on the biophysical environment but also political, institutional and socio-economic conditions. Moreover, our results highlighted that the environmental implications of production of biomass on 'underutilised' agricultural land for biomass production are highly controversial. Thus land use change

  2. Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akiko Hirata

    Full Text Available Pine wilt disease (PWD constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22. For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 and two time periods (2050s and 2070s. We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area. Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD.

  3. Assessing the role of large hydro in Canada's electricity future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee Pochih

    1992-01-01

    Electric power in Canada was first generated by steam in the 1880s. The use of hydroelectricity spread rapidly due to abundant water resources and the nationalization of power companies by the provinces; by 1920, 97% of Canadian electricity production came from hydroelectric plants. Thermal generation became competitive by the 1960s, when most of the best hydro sites had been developed, and nuclear generation also started gaining a share of the market. By 1991, hydroelectricity's share of Canadian power production had declined to around 60%. Hydroelectric power has long been used as an instrument of Canadian industrial policy. Given the amount and importance of utility capital expenditures, it was recognized that hydropower development could serve such policy objectives as job creation, industrial development, and macroeconomic stabilization. Creation of provincially owned utilities led to construction of large hydroelectric projects, notably in Quebec, British Columbia, Manitoba, and Newfoundland. The 20 largest hydroelectric power plants in Canada have a total installed capacity of 35,704 MW, representing ca 59% of Canada's total 1991 hydro capacity. The construction of such large projects is not expected to proceed as quickly as in the past because of environmental concerns. However, a number of factors favor continuation of development of hydro resources: a remaining potential estimated at ca 44,000 MW; simplification of electricity export regulations; more stringent air pollution standards that favor non-polluting energy sources; and a moratorium on nuclear power plants in Ontario. 4 tabs

  4. Probabilistic safety assessment past, present and future. An IAEA perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lederman, L.; Niehaus, F.; Tomic, B.

    1996-01-01

    Despite the high level of development that probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methods have reached, a number of issues place constraints on its use in supporting decision making on safety matters. A recent publication of the International Nuclear Safety Advisory Group (INSAG) represents an important step in reaching international consensus on the use of PSA. PSA is ''strongly encouraged'' by INSAG; however, it is noted that ''PSA methodology is not sufficiently mature for its present status to be frozen''. The main aspects of the report are discussed in this paper. The paper next discusses three main categories of PSA application, namely the adequacy of design and procedures, optimization of operational activities and regulatory applications. For each of the applications, the objectives, specific modelling requirements and the prospects for implementation are presented. Consistent with its statutory functions, an important aspect of the work of the IAEA is to reach international consensus on the possibilities of and limitations on the use of PSA methods. Whereas past efforts have been concentrated on promotion and assistance to perform Level 1 PSAs, work is now extending with emphasis on PSA applications, Level 2 and Level 3 analysis, external events and shutdown risks. The main elements of IAEA's PSA Programme are discussed. Finally some challenges related to the use of PSA in the backfitting of nuclear power plants in Eastern Europe and countries of the former USSR are addressed. (orig.)

  5. Atlantic hurricanes and associated insurance loss potentials in future climate scenarios: limitations of high-resolution AGCM simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas F. Stocker

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC characteristics are among the more serious regional threats of global climate change. Therefore, a better understanding of how anthropogenic climate change may affect TCs and how these changes translate in socio-economic impacts is required. Here, we apply a TC detection and tracking method that was developed for ERA-40 data to time-slice experiments of two atmospheric general circulation models, namely the fifth version of the European Centre model of Hamburg model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany, T213 and the Japan Meteorological Agency/ Meteorological research Institute model (MRI, Tsukuba city, Japan, TL959. For each model, two climate simulations are available: a control simulation for present-day conditions to evaluate the model against observations, and a scenario simulation to assess future changes. The evaluation of the control simulations shows that the number of intense storms is underestimated due to the model resolution. To overcome this deficiency, simulated cyclone intensities are scaled to the best track data leading to a better representation of the TC intensities. Both models project an increased number of major hurricanes and modified trajectories in their scenario simulations. These changes have an effect on the projected loss potentials. However, these state-of-the-art models still yield contradicting results, and therefore they are not yet suitable to provide robust estimates of losses due to uncertainties in simulated hurricane intensity, location and frequency.

  6. An assessment of wind energy potential in Iberia under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Santos, João A.; Rochinha, Carlos; Reyers, Mark; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2015-04-01

    Wind energy potential in Iberia is assessed for recent-past (1961-2000) and future (2041-2070) climates. For recent-past, a COSMO-CLM simulation driven by ERA-40 is used. COSMO-CLM simulations driven by ECHAM5 following the A1B scenario are used for future projections. A 2 MW rated power wind turbine is selected. Mean potentials, inter-annual variability and irregularity are discussed on annual/seasonal scales and on a grid resolution of 20 km. For detailed regional assessments eight target sites are considered. For recent-past conditions, the highest daily mean potentials are found in winter over northern and eastern Iberia, particularly on high-elevation or coastal regions. In northwestern Iberia, daily potentials frequently reach maximum wind energy output (50 MWh day-1), particularly in winter. Southern Andalucía reveals high potentials throughout the year, whereas the Ebro valley and central-western coast show high potentials in summer. The irregularity in annual potentials is moderate (2 MWh day-1). The northward displacement of North Atlantic westerly winds (autumn-spring) and the strengthening of easterly flows (summer) are key drivers of future projections. Santos, J.A.; Rochinha, C.; Liberato, M.L.R.; Reyers, M.; Pinto, J.G. (2015) Projected changes in wind energy potentials over Iberia. Renewable Energy, 75, 1: 68-80. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2014.09.026 Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

  7. Assessing dengue vaccination impact: Model challenges and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recker, Mario; Vannice, Kirsten; Hombach, Joachim; Jit, Mark; Simmons, Cameron P

    2016-08-31

    In response to the sharp rise in the global burden caused by dengue virus (DENV) over the last few decades, the WHO has set out three specific key objectives in its disease control strategy: (i) to estimate the true burden of dengue by 2015; (ii) a reduction in dengue mortality by at least 50% by 2020 (used as a baseline); and (iii) a reduction in dengue morbidity by at least 25% by 2020. Although various elements will all play crucial parts in achieving this goal, from diagnosis and case management to integrated surveillance and outbreak response, sustainable vector control, vaccine implementation and finally operational and implementation research, it seems clear that new tools (e.g. a safe and effective vaccine and/or effective vector control) are key to success. The first dengue vaccine was licensed in December 2015, Dengvaxia® (CYD-TDV) developed by Sanofi Pasteur. The WHO has provided guidance on the use of CYD-TDV in endemic countries, for which there are a variety of considerations beyond the risk-benefit evaluation done by regulatory authorities, including public health impact and cost-effectiveness. Population-level vaccine impact and economic and financial aspects are two issues that can potentially be considered by means of mathematical modelling, especially for new products for which empirical data are still lacking. In December 2014 a meeting was convened by the WHO in order to revisit the current status of dengue transmission models and their utility for public health decision-making. Here, we report on the main points of discussion and the conclusions of this meeting, as well as next steps for maximising the use of mathematical models for vaccine decision-making. Copyright © 2016.

  8. Assessing the Potential for Renewable Energy on Public Lands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2003-02-01

    This report represents an initial activity of the Bureau of Land Managements (BLM) proposed National Energy Policy Implementation Plan: identify and evaluate renewable energy resources on federal lands and any limitations on accessing them. Ultimately, BLM will prioritize land-use planning activities to increase industrys development of renewable energy resources. These resources include solar, biomass, geothermal, water, and wind energy. To accomplish this, BLM and the Department of Energys National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) established a partnership to conduct an assessment of renewable energy resources on BLM lands in the western United States. The objective of this collaboration was to identify BLM planning units in the western states with the highest potential for private-sector development of renewable resources. The assessment resulted in the following findings: (1) 63 BLM planning units in nine western states have high potential for one or more renewable energy technologies; and (2) 20 BLM planning units in seven western states have high potential for power production from three or more renewable energy sources. This assessment report provides BLM with information needed to prioritize land-use planning activities on the basis of potential for the development of energy from renewable resources.

  9. Assessment of Global Wind Energy Resource Utilization Potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, M.; He, B.; Guan, Y.; Zhang, H.; Song, S.

    2017-09-01

    Development of wind energy resource (WER) is a key to deal with climate change and energy structure adjustment. A crucial issue is to obtain the distribution and variability of WER, and mine the suitable location to exploit it. In this paper, a multicriteria evaluation (MCE) model is constructed by integrating resource richness and stability, utilization value and trend of resource, natural environment with weights. The global resource richness is assessed through wind power density (WPD) and multi-level wind speed. The utilizable value of resource is assessed by the frequency of effective wind. The resource stability is assessed by the coefficient of variation of WPD and the frequency of prevailing wind direction. Regression slope of long time series WPD is used to assess the trend of WER. All of the resource evaluation indicators are derived from the atmospheric reanalysis data ERA-Interim with spatial resolution 0.125°. The natural environment factors mainly refer to slope and land-use suitability, which are derived from multi-resolution terrain elevation data 2010 (GMTED 2010) and GlobalCover2009. Besides, the global WER utilization potential map is produced, which shows most high potential regions are located in north of Africa. Additionally, by verifying that 22.22 % and 48.8 9% operational wind farms fall on medium-high and high potential regions respectively, the result can provide a basis for the macroscopic siting of wind farm.

  10. Assessing the impact of future climate change on groundwater recharge in Galicia-Costa, Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raposo, Juan Ramón; Dafonte, Jorge; Molinero, Jorge

    2013-03-01

    Climate change can impact the hydrological processes of a watershed and may result in problems with future water supply for large sections of the population. Results from the FP5 PRUDENCE project suggest significant changes in temperature and precipitation over Europe. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in the hydrological district of Galicia-Costa, Spain. Climate projections from two general circulation models and eight different regional climate models were used for the assessment and two climate-change scenarios were evaluated. Calibration and validation of the model were performed using a daily time-step in four representative catchments in the district. The effects on modeled mean annual groundwater recharge are small, partly due to the greater stomatal efficiency of plants in response to increased CO2 concentration. However, climate change strongly influences the temporal variability of modeled groundwater recharge. Recharge may concentrate in the winter season and dramatically decrease in the summer-autumn season. As a result, the dry-season duration may be increased on average by almost 30 % for the A2 emission scenario, exacerbating the current problems in water supply.

  11. Assessing geothermal energy potential in upstate New York. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hodge, D.S. [SUNY, Buffalo, NY (United States)

    1996-08-01

    The potential of geothermal energy for future electric power generation in New York State is evaluated using estimates of temperatures of geothermal reservoir rocks. Bottom hole temperatures from over 2000 oil and gas wells in the region were integrated into subsurface maps of the temperatures for specific geothermal reservoirs. The Theresa/Potsdam formation provides the best potential for extraction of high volumes of geothermal fluids. The evaluation of the Theresa/Potsdam geothermal reservoir in upstate New York suggests that an area 30 miles east of Elmira, New York has the highest temperatures in the reservoir rock. The Theresa/Potsdam reservoir rock should have temperatures about 136 {degrees}C and may have as much as 450 feet of porosity in excess of 8%. Estimates of the volumes of geothermal fluids that can be extracted are provided and environmental considerations for production from a geothermal well is discussed.

  12. Beyond speculative robot ethics: A vision assessment study on the future of the robotic caretaker

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Plas, A.P. van der; Smits, M.; Wehrmann, C.

    2010-01-01

    In this article we develop a dialogue model for robot technology experts and designated users to discuss visions on the future of robotics in long-term care. Our vision assessment study aims for more distinguished and more informed visions on future robots. Surprisingly, our experiment also led to

  13. Extracting information from an ensemble of GCMs to reliably assess future global runoff change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sperna Weiland, F.C.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Weerts, A.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    Future runoff projections derived from different global climate models (GCMs) show large differences. Therefore, within this study the, information from multiple GCMs has been combined to better assess hydrological changes. For projections of precipitation and temperature the Reliability ensemble

  14. Review: Assessing the climate mitigation potential of biomass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Moriarty

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available For many millennia, humans have used biomass for three broad purposes: food for humans and fodder for farm animals; energy; and materials. Food has always been exclusively produced from biomass, and in the year 1800, biomass still accounted for about 95% of all energy. Biomass has also been a major source of materials for construction, implements, clothing, bedding and other uses, but some researchers think that total human uses of biomass will soon reach limits of sustainability. It is thus important to select those biomass uses that will maximise global climate change benefits. With a ‘food first’ policy, it is increasingly recognised that projections of food needs are important for estimating future global bioenergy potential, and that non-food uses of biomass can be increased by both food crop yield improvements and dietary changes. However, few researchers have explicitly included future biomaterials production as a factor in bioenergy potential. Although biomaterials’ share of the materials market has roughly halved over the past quarter-century, we show that per tonne of biomass, biomaterials will usually allow greater greenhouse gas reductions than directly using biomass for bioenergy. particularly since in many cases, biomaterials can be later burnt for energy after their useful life.

  15. Assessing future economic impacts of acidic deposition on the recreational fishery of eastern Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    A study was carried out to assess the socio-economic impacts and net economic value effects related to potential reduction in acidic deposition on the sports fishery of eastern Canada. Impacts and net economic effects that would have occurred from 1950 to 1985 if emission/deposition controls were in place are measured. Impacts and net economic effects that will occur from 1986 to 2021 if controls are put in place in the future are also measured. The study incorporated the latest data describing the relationship of acidic deposition to lake pH levels and ultimate impact on fish survival, and applies a spatial analysis system to model changes in sport fish availability with respect to pH changes and fish survival responses. It was found that if emission controls were put in place beginning in 1950 the Canadian economy would have accrued $4.3 billion in net economic value from 1950 to 1985 inclusive. The 1986 value of the historical stream of losses that occurred because controls were not put in place is $24 billion assuming a 10% rate of return. If controls were put in place in the future, net economic value to Canada due to increased angler activity would be $4.2 billion for the period 1986-2021. The value in 1986 would be $925 million. 9 figs., 34 tabs

  16. The future of anticoagulation management in atrial fibrillation in Europe: An assessment of today's challenges with recommendations for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lichten, Catherine A; Castle-Clarke, Sophie; Manville, Catriona; Horvath, Veronika; Robin, Enora; Krapels, Joachim; Parks, Sarah; Sim, Megan; van Zijverden, Olga; Chataway, Joanna

    2015-11-30

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common type of cardiac arrhythmia, affecting approximately 1-2 per cent of the population worldwide. Those who suffer from AF have a five times higher risk of stroke. AF prevalence increases with age and it affects roughly 18 per cent of the population over 85. Consequently, as populations age, AF is becoming an increasingly significant public health issue. Over recent years there have been developments in treatment and management options, both for treating the arrhythmia directly, and assessing and reducing the risk of AF-related stroke, but there is a need to ensure that available knowledge is applied optimally to benefit patients so that opportunities to prevent AF-related stroke are not missed. The aims of this project were to assess the current landscape and explore the direction of future developments in AF management in Europe, with a focus on the use of anticoagulants in the prevention of AF-related stroke. Through rapid evidence assessment, key informant interviews, PESTLE analysis and the development and exploration of future scenarios, we have developed sets of shorter- and longer-term recommendations for improving AF-related patient outcomes. The short-term recommendations are: i) improve AF awareness among the public and policymakers; ii) support education about AF management for healthcare professionals and patients; and iii) maintain engagement in AF-related research across the health services.

  17. Concentrating solar power. Its potential contribution to a sustainable energy future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    detail, much of what is presented in this report on the development of CSP technologies and economics will also be relevant to these alternative applications of CSP. Following a chapter summarising the policy context, the current status of CSP and associated thermal energy storage technologies are described in Chapters 3 and 4. Chapter 5 then discusses the economics of CSP, considering cost reduction potential and consequent time-frames for cost competitiveness, and the value of CSP with storage and/or auxiliary firing in electricity markets. The environmental impacts of CSP are evaluated in Chapter 6 before a review of the potential future contribution of CSP in Europe and the MENA region presented in Chapter 7. Conclusions and recommendations follow, with a bibliography of the references informing this report and annexes providing supporting detail, and a glossary of terms at Annex 2.

  18. Trends and Future Potential of Payment for Ecosystem Services to Alleviate Rural Poverty in Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey C. Milder

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Payment for ecosystem services (PES is a market-based approach to environmental management that compensates land stewards for ecosystem conservation and restoration. Because low-income households and communities control much of the ecologically sensitive land in developing countries, they potentially stand to gain from PES, as environmentally responsible stewardship is assigned a value by various actors in society. To date, however, instances of PES benefiting the poor have been limited mainly to specific localities, small-scale projects, and a handful of broader government programs. We analyze the size, characteristics, and trends of PES to evaluate its future potential to benefit low-income land stewards in developing countries. We estimate that by the year 2030, markets for biodiversity conservation could benefit 10-15 million low-income households in developing countries, carbon markets could benefit 25-50 million, markets for watershed protection could benefit 80-100 million, and markets for landscape beauty and recreation could benefit 5-8 million. If payments and markets reach these potentials, they could provide a non-negligible contribution to poverty alleviation at the global level.

  19. The Potential for Snow to Supply Human Water Demand in the Present and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mankin, Justin S.; Viviroli, Daniel; Singh, Deepti; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

    2015-01-01

    Runoff from snowmelt is regarded as a vital water source for people and ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Numerous studies point to the threat global warming poses to the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt. But analyses focused on snow supply do not show where changes to snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given sub-annual patterns of human water consumption and water availability from rainfall. We identify the NH basins where present spring and summer snowmelt has the greatest potential to supply the human water demand that would otherwise be unmet by instantaneous rainfall runoff. Using a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections, we find that these basins - which together have a present population of approx. 2 billion people - are exposed to a 67% risk of decreased snow supply this coming century. Further, in the multi-model mean, 68 basins (with a present population of more than 300 million people) transition from having sufficient rainfall runoff to meet all present human water demand to having insufficient rainfall runoff. However, internal climate variability creates irreducible uncertainty in the projected future trends in snow resource potential, with about 90% of snow-sensitive basins showing potential for either increases or decreases over the near-term decades. Our results emphasize the importance of snow for fulfilling human water demand in many NH basins, and highlight the need to account for the full range of internal climate variability in developing robust climate risk management decisions.

  20. Towards an Immunophenotype of Schizophrenia: Progress, Potential Mechanisms, and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Brian J; Goldsmith, David R

    2017-01-01

    The evidence to date, coupled with advances in immunology and genetics has afforded the field an unparalleled opportunity to investigate the hypothesis that a subset of patients with schizophrenia may manifest an immunophenotype, toward new potential diagnostics and therapeutics to reduce risk, alleviate symptoms, and improve quality of life in both at-risk populations and patients with established schizophrenia. In this paper, we will first summarize the findings on immune dysfunction in schizophrenia, including (1) genetic, prenatal, and premorbid immune risk factors and (2) immune markers across the clinical course of the disorder, including cytokines; C-reactive protein; immune cells; antibodies, autoantibodies and comorbid autoimmune disorders; complement; oxidative stress; imaging of neuroinflammation; infections; and clinical trials of anti-inflammatory agents and immunotherapy. We will then discuss a potential mechanistic framework toward increased understanding of a potential schizophrenia immunophenotype. We will then critically appraise the existing literature, and discuss suggestions for the future research agenda in this area that are needed to rigorously evaluate this hypothesis. PMID:27654215

  1. Future perspective of thorium based nuclear fuels and thorium potential of Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unak, T.; Yildirim, Y.

    2001-01-01

    Today's nuclear technology has principally been based on the use of fissile U-235 and Pu-239. he existence of thorium in the nature and its potential use in the nuclear technology were not unfortunately into account with a sufficient importance. The global distributions of thorium and uranium reserves indicate that in general some developed countries such as the USA, Canada, Australia, France have considerable uranium reserves, and contrarily only some developing countries such as Turkey, Brazil, India, Egypt have considerable thorium reserves. The studies carried out on the thorium during the last 50 years have clearly showed that the thorium based nuclear fuels have the potential easily use in most of reactor types actually operated with the classical uranium based nuclear fuels without any considerable modification. In the case of the use of thorium based nuclear fuels in future nuclear energy production systems, the serious problems such as the excess of Pu-239, the proliferation potential of nuclear weapons, and also the anxious of nuclear terrorism will probably be resolved, and sustainable nuclear energy production will be realized in the next new century. (authors)

  2. Future perspective of thorium based nuclear fuels and thorium potential of Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unak, T.; Yildirim, Y.

    2000-01-01

    Today's nuclear technology has principally been based on the use of fissile U-235 and Pu-239. The existence of thorium in the nature and its potential use in the nuclear technology were not unfortunately into account with a sufficient importance. The global distributions of thorium and uranium reserves indicate that in general some developed countries such as the USA, Canada, Australia, France have considerable uranium reserves, and contrarily only some developing countries such as Turkey, Brazil, India, Egypt have considerable thorium reserves. The studies carried out on the thorium during the last 50 years have clearly showed that the thorium based nuclear fuels have the potential easily use in most of reactor types actually operated with the classical uranium based nuclear fuels without any considerable modification. In the case of the use of thorium based nuclear fuels in future nuclear energy production systems, the serious problems such as the excess of Pu-239, the proliferation potential of nuclear weapons, and also the anxious of nuclear terrorism will probably be resolved, and sustainable nuclear energy production will be realized in the next new century. (authors)

  3. Assessment of small hydropower potential by software. Case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moldoveanu Alexandru

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The rivers hydropower potential is considered one of the oldest renewable energy source used in the electricity production process. A method to investigate the possibility to construct a micro hydropower system on a small river is presented. The analysis and the hydropower assessment were done by using Vapidro-Aste software. Results point out that micro-hydro units can be implemented in remote locations or hybrid renewable energy systems, while the environmental flow is guaranteed.

  4. Assessment of the potential of hybrid vehicles: Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surber, F. T.

    1980-01-01

    The potential of hybrid vehicles as a replacement of the conventional gasoline or diesel fueled internal combustion engine vehicle within the next 20 to 30 years, was assessed. Hybrid vehicle designs and applications which are technically and economically viable were studied to determine if reductions in petroleum usage were large enough to warrant major expenditures of research and development funds. Critical technical areas where research and development can be most usefully concentrated were identified.

  5. Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Amanda; Kumar, Sunil; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

    2016-01-01

    Regional analysis of large wildfire potential given climate change scenarios is crucial to understanding areas most at risk in the future, yet wildfire models are not often developed and tested at this spatial scale. We fit three historical climate suitability models for large wildfires (i.e. ≥ 400 ha) in Colorado andWyoming using topography and decadal climate averages corresponding to wildfire occurrence at the same temporal scale. The historical models classified points of known large wildfire occurrence with high accuracies. Using a novel approach in wildfire modeling, we applied the historical models to independent climate and wildfire datasets, and the resulting sensitivities were 0.75, 0.81, and 0.83 for Maxent, Generalized Linear, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, respectively. We projected the historic models into future climate space using data from 15 global circulation models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Maps from these geospatial analyses can be used to evaluate the changing spatial distribution of climate suitability of large wildfires in these states. April relative humidity was the most important covariate in all models, providing insight to the climate space of large wildfires in this region. These methods incorporate monthly and seasonal climate averages at a spatial resolution relevant to land management (i.e. 1 km2) and provide a tool that can be modified for other regions of North America, or adapted for other parts of the world.

  6. PAU-SA: A Synthetic Aperture Interferometric Radiometer Test Bed for Potential Improvements in Future Missions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merce Vall-llosera

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS mission is an Earth Explorer Opportunity mission from the European Space Agency (ESA. Its goal is to produce global maps of soil moisture and ocean salinity using the Microwave Imaging Radiometer by Aperture Synthesis (MIRAS. The purpose of the Passive Advanced Unit Synthetic Aperture (PAU-SA instrument is to study and test some potential improvements that could eventually be implemented in future missions using interferometric radiometers such as the Geoestacionary Atmosferic Sounder (GAS, the Precipitation and All-weather Temperature and Humidity (PATH and the Geostationary Interferometric Microwave Sounder (GIMS. Both MIRAS and PAU-SA are Y-shaped arrays with uniformly distributed antennas, but the receiver topology and the processing unit are quite different. The purpose of this work is to identify the elements in the MIRAS’s design susceptible of improvement and apply them in the PAU-SA instrument demonstrator, to test them in view of these future interferometric radiometer missions.

  7. NASA's Vision for Potential Energy Reduction from Future Generations of Propulsion Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haller, Bill

    2015-01-01

    Through a robust partnership with the aviation industry, over the past 50 years NASA programs have helped foster advances in propulsion technology that enabled substantial reductions in fuel consumption for commercial transports. Emerging global trends and continuing environmental concerns are creating challenges that will very likely transform the face of aviation over the next 20-40 years. In recognition of this development, NASA Aeronautics has established a set of Research Thrusts that will help define the future direction of the agency's research technology efforts. Two of these thrusts, Ultra-Efficient Commercial Vehicles and Transition to Low-Carbon Propulsion, serve as cornerstones for the Advanced Air Transport Technology (AATT) project. The AATT project is exploring and developing high-payoff technologies and concepts that are key to continued improvement in energy efficiency and environmental compatibility for future generations of fixed-wing, subsonic transports. The AATT project is primarily focused on the N+3 timeframe, or 3 generations from current technology levels. As should be expected, many of the propulsion system architectures technologies envisioned for N+3 vary significantly from todays engines. The use of batteries in a hybrid-electric configuration or deploying multiple fans distributed across the airframe to enable higher bypass ratios are just two examples of potential advances that could enable substantial energy reductions over current propulsion systems.

  8. The future of health economics: The potential of behavioral and experimental economics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fredrik Hansen

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Health care systems around the globe are facing great challenges. The demand for health care is increasing due to the continuous development of new medical technologies, changing demographics, increasing income levels, and greater expectations from patients. The possibilities and willingness to expand health care resources, however, are limited. Consequently, health care organizations are increasingly required to take economic restrictions into account, and there is an urgent need for improved efficiency. It is reasonable to ask whether the health economics field of today is prepared and equipped to help us meet these challenges. Our aim with this article is twofold: to introduce the fields of behavioral and experimental economics and to then identify and characterize health economics areas where these two fields have a promising potential. We also discuss the advantages of a pluralistic view in health economics research, and we anticipate a dynamic future for health economics.

  9. A Potential Transmitter Architecture for Future Generation Green Wireless Base Station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike Faulkner

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Current radio frequency power amplifiers in 3G base stations have very high power consumption leading to a hefty cost and negative environmental impact. In this paper, we propose a potential architecture design for future wireless base station. Issues associated with components of the architecture are investigated. The all-digital transmitter architecture uses a combination of envelope elimination and restoration (EER and pulse width modulation (PWM/pulse position modulation (PPM modulation. The performance of this architecture is predicted from the measured output power and efficiency curves of a GaN amplifier. 57% efficiency is obtained for an OFDM signal limited to 8 dB peak to average power ratio. The PWM/PPM drive signal is generated using the improved Cartesian sigma delta techniques. It is shown that an RF oversampling by a factor of four meets the WLAN spectral mask, and WCDMA specification is met by an RF oversampling of sixteen.

  10. A road for a promising future for China's primates: The potential for restoration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Colin A

    2018-07-18

    China is one of the most dynamic countries of the world and it shelters some amazing levels of biodiversity, including some very special primate species. However, primarily as a result of forest loss, most of which occurred in historical times, approximately 70% of China's primate species have less than 3 000 individuals. Here I evaluate one road for future conservation/development that could produce very positive gains for China's primates; namely forest restoration. I argue that for a large scale restoration project to be possible two conditions must be met; the right societal conditions must exist and the right knowledge must be in hand. This evaluation suggests that the restoration of native forest to support many of China's primates holds great potential to advance conservation goals and to promote primate population recovery.

  11. Nuclear fusion and its large potential for the future world energy supply

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ongena Jef

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available An overview of the energy problem in the world is presented. The colossal task of ‘decarbonizing’ the current energy system, with ~85% of the primary energy produced from fossil sources is discussed. There are at the moment only two options that can contribute to a solution: renewable energy (sun, wind, hydro, etc. or nuclear fission. Their contributions, ~2% for sun and wind, ~6% for hydro and ~5% for fission, will need to be enormously increased in a relatively short time, to meet the targets set by policy makers. The possible role and large potential for fusion to contribute to a solution in the future as a safe, nearly inexhaustible and environmentally compatible energy source is discussed. The principles of magnetic and inertial confinement are outlined, and the two main options for magnetic confinement, tokamak and stellarator, are explained. The status of magnetic fusion is summarized and the next steps in fusion research, ITER and DEMO, briefly presented.

  12. A Potential Transmitter Architecture for Future Generation Green Wireless Base Station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cijvat Ellie

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Current radio frequency power amplifiers in 3G base stations have very high power consumption leading to a hefty cost and negative environmental impact. In this paper, we propose a potential architecture design for future wireless base station. Issues associated with components of the architecture are investigated. The all-digital transmitter architecture uses a combination of envelope elimination and restoration (EER and pulse width modulation (PWM/pulse position modulation (PPM modulation. The performance of this architecture is predicted from the measured output power and efficiency curves of a GaN amplifier. 57% efficiency is obtained for an OFDM signal limited to 8 dB peak to average power ratio. The PWM/PPM drive signal is generated using the improved Cartesian sigma delta techniques. It is shown that an RF oversampling by a factor of four meets the WLAN spectral mask, and WCDMA specification is met by an RF oversampling of sixteen.

  13. Assessment of market potential of compressed air energy storage systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, D. W.; Buckley, O. E.; Clark, C. E., Jr.

    1983-12-01

    This report describes an assessment of potential roles that EPRI might take to facilitate the commercial acceptance of compressed air energy storage (CAES) systems. The assessment is based on (1) detailed analyses of the market potential of utility storage technologies, (2) interviews with representatives of key participants in the CAES market, and (3) a decision analysis synthesizing much of the information about market and technology status. The results indicate a large potential market for CAES systems if the overall business environment for utilities improves. In addition, it appears that EPRI can have a valuable incremental impact in ensuring that utilities realize the potential of CAES by (1) continuing an aggressive information dissemination and technology transfer program, (2) working to ensure the success of the first United States CAES installation at Soyland Power Cooperative, (3) developing planning methods to allow utilities to evaluate CAES and other storage options more effectively and more realistically, and (4) supporting R and D to resolve residual uncertainties in first-generation CAES cost and performance characteristics. Previously announced in STAR as N83-25121

  14. CO2 reduction potential of future coal gasification based power generation technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jansen, D.; Oudhuis, A.B.J.; Van Veen, H.M.

    1992-03-01

    Assessment studies are carried out on coal gasification power plants integrated with gas turbines (IGCC) or molten carbonate fuel cells (MCFC) without and with CO 2 -removal. System elements include coal gasification, high-temperature gas-cleaning, molten carbonate fuel cells or gas turbines, CO shift, membrane separation, CO 2 recovery and a bottoming cycle. Various system configurations are evaluated on the basis of thermodynamic computations. The energy balances of the various system configurations clearly indicate that integrated coal gasification MCFC power plants (IGMCFC) with CO 2 removal have high efficiencies (42-47% LHV) compared to IGCC power plants with CO 2 -removal (33-38% LHV) and that the CO 2 -removal is simplified due to the specific properties of the molten carbonate fuel cells. IGMCFC is therefore an option with future prospective in the light of clean coal technologies for power generation with high energy efficiencies and low emissions. 2 figs., 3 tabs., 10 refs

  15. Modeling and assessment of future IGCC plant concepts with CO{sub 2} capture; Simulation und Bewertung zukuenftiger IGCC-Kraftwerkskonzepte mit CO{sub 2}-Abtrennung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kunze, Christian A.

    2012-07-13

    The thesis focuses on the assessment of efficiency potential of future IGCC plants with CO{sub 2} capture. Starting point is a comprehensive analysis (thermodynamic, economic and exergy) of a state of the art IGCC. Additionally, five future IGCC concepts are proposed and evaluated for their efficiency potential in the mid- and long-term. The concepts showed significantly higher efficiencies up to approximately 60% and enable an almost CO{sub 2}-free operation.

  16. Contents of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in the safety evaluation of a repository for spent fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Wickham, S.M.; Galson, D.A.

    2001-08-01

    The objective of this report is to discuss issues that should be considered in the development of a regulatory strategy for assessing future human actions in any forthcoming license application for a deep repository for spent fuel in Sweden and for sites of other repositories. The report comprises an outline of key issues concerning the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, reviews of regulatory developments, recent safety assessments and supporting studies, and international initiatives on the treatment of future human actions in safety assessment, and the principal elements of a regulatory strategy. Performance assessments (PAs) are generally accepted as providing illustrations of system performance under given sets of assumptions. The results of PAs are clearer and easier to understand if certain large uncertainties are accounted for by determining performance under several different sets of assumptions or scenarios, each of which defines a possible evolution of the disposal system. A number of assumptions can be made that would restrict the scope of an assessment without reducing the credibility of the corresponding safety case. Reducing speculation about technological development, by assuming that the techniques used in future human activities are similar to those currently in use in the region or at similar sites, will simplify the assessment. A distinction is generally made between inadvertent and intentional intrusion, with intentional activities excluded because society cannot protect future populations from their own actions if they understand the potential consequences. A division of human activities into 'recent and ongoing' and 'future' activities considers not only the timing of the activities but also the degree of control or influence that can be imposed on them. Recent and ongoing human activities are those that affect an area beyond the immediate vicinity of the disposal facility and which neither the proponent nor the regulator

  17. Comprehensive Care Plan Development Using Resident Assessment Instrument Framework: Past, Present, and Future Practices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary Ellen Dellefield

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Development of the comprehensive care plan (CCP is a requirement for nursing homes participating in the federal Medicare and Medicaid programs, referred to as skilled nursing facilities. The plan must be developed within the context of the comprehensive interdisciplinary assessment framework—the Resident Assessment Instrument (RAI. Consistent compliance with this requirement has been difficult to achieve. To improve the quality of CCP development within this framework, an increased understanding of complex factors contributing to inconsistent compliance is required. In this commentary, we examine the history of the comprehensive care plan; its development within the RAI framework; linkages between the RAI and registered nurse staffing; empirical evidence of the CCP’s efficacy; and the limitations of extant standards of practices in CCP development. Because of the registered nurse’s educational preparation, professional practice standards, and licensure obligations, the essential contributions of professional nurses in CCP development are emphasized. Recommendations for evidence-based micro and macro level practice changes with the potential to improve the quality of CCP development and regulatory compliance are presented. Suggestions for future research are given.

  18. The Belem Framework for Action: Harnessing the Power and Potential of Adult Learning and Education for a Viable Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adult Learning, 2012

    2012-01-01

    This article presents the Belem Framework for Action. This framework focuses on harnessing the power and potential of adult learning and education for a viable future. This framework begins with a preamble on adult education and towards lifelong learning.

  19. Integrating future scenario‐based crop expansion and crop conditions to map switchgrass biofuel potential in eastern Nebraska, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.

    2018-01-01

    Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) has been evaluated as one potential source for cellulosic biofuel feedstocks. Planting switchgrass in marginal croplands and waterway buffers can reduce soil erosion, improve water quality, and improve regional ecosystem services (i.e. it serves as a potential carbon sink). In previous studies, we mapped high risk marginal croplands and highly erodible cropland buffers that are potentially suitable for switchgrass development, which would improve ecosystem services and minimally impact food production. In this study, we advance our previous study results and integrate future crop expansion information to develop a switchgrass biofuel potential ensemble map for current and future croplands in eastern Nebraska. The switchgrass biomass productivity and carbon benefits (i.e. NEP: net ecosystem production) for the identified biofuel potential ensemble areas were quantified. The future scenario‐based (‘A1B’) land use and land cover map for 2050, the US Geological Survey crop type and Compound Topographic Index (CTI) maps, and long‐term (1981–2010) averaged annual precipitation data were used to identify future crop expansion regions that are suitable for switchgrass development. Results show that 2528 km2 of future crop expansion regions (~3.6% of the study area) are potentially suitable for switchgrass development. The total estimated biofuel potential ensemble area (including cropland buffers, marginal croplands, and future crop expansion regions) is 4232 km2 (~6% of the study area), potentially producing 3.52 million metric tons of switchgrass biomass per year. Converting biofuel ensemble regions to switchgrass leads to potential carbon sinks (the total NEP for biofuel potential areas is 0.45 million metric tons C) and is environmentally sustainable. Results from this study improve our understanding of environmental conditions and ecosystem services of current and future cropland systems in eastern Nebraska and provide

  20. Ecological models for regulatory risk assessments of pesticides: Developing a strategy for the future.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thorbek, P.; Forbes, V.; Heimbach, F.; Hommen, U.; Thulke, H.H.; Brink, van den P.J.

    2010-01-01

    Ecological Models for Regulatory Risk Assessments of Pesticides: Developing a Strategy for the Future provides a coherent, science-based view on ecological modeling for regulatory risk assessments. It discusses the benefits of modeling in the context of registrations, identifies the obstacles that

  1. Restoration metropole XXI, as a problem solving between old potential to the future sustainability of values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Indra, M.

    2018-03-01

    Cinema Metropole XXI is one of the heritage buildings located in the heart of Menteng area, with “art deco” architecture. The appereance of this building is very beautiful and very impressed from other buildings, become strong Icon around the Menteng neighborhood. In 2010 the building was bought by Cinema 21, where the physical condition is very messy and looks slum. The emergence of modern shopping and entertainment centers are also complete with cinema facilities are more comfortable and complete, While the atmosphere of this old cinema is considered uncomfortable for visitors, so slowly abandoned by customers. The status of the cultural heritage inherent in this building becomes an obstacle by owners to renew this building, until the cinema closes in some time. The loss of the long-standing potential of cultural heritage buildings due to the transformation of urban development is an important issue in this paper, this case study is the author’s experience in regenerating the future potential at this heritage building. This writing is done by Descriptive Analysis method from various reference approaches and theory of cultural heritage values involved in the restoration of Metropole XXI cinema. The conclusions of this paper find a real solution to problem solving for the sustainability of this building.

  2. THE ATTITUDE OF POTENTIAL PARENTS TO ALCOHOL ADDICTION AND HEALTH CHANGES OF THE FUTURE GENERATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhanna Leonidovna Malakhova

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The results of this research into the alcohol addiction level among young people (potential parents aged 17-27 years old are represented in the article. The questionnaire form, which guarantees full anonymity of the respondent, was chosen as a main research method. The questionnaire consisted of two parts: the first questions were focused on acquaintance with the respondent (sex, age etc, other questions focused on their attitude to alcohol with "yes" or "no" answers. Answers were transferred into points and summed up. Girls who had 16 and more points and boys with 21 and more points were considered to have a high alcohol addiction level. 753 people were questioned; there were 509 girls and 244 boys among them. 284 people (37,3% showed a high alcohol addiction level with 187 girls and 97 boys among them. That is why it seems clear that there are no effective measures aimed at healthy lifestyle propaganda among the young today. It should be also mentioned that there is a big percentage (37,3% of high alcohol addiction level among individuals 17-26 years old – potential fathers and mothers of the future generation.Scope of application of results – social medicine, healthcare arrangement.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-8-44

  3. Rooftop solar photovoltaic potential in cities: how scalable are assessment approaches?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellanos, Sergio; Sunter, Deborah A.; Kammen, Daniel M.

    2017-12-01

    Distributed photovoltaics (PV) have played a critical role in the deployment of solar energy, currently making up roughly half of the global PV installed capacity. However, there remains significant unused economically beneficial potential. Estimates of the total technical potential for rooftop PV systems in the United States calculate a generation comparable to approximately 40% of the 2016 total national electric-sector sales. To best take advantage of the rooftop PV potential, effective analytic tools that support deployment strategies and aggressive local, state, and national policies to reduce the soft cost of solar energy are vital. A key step is the low-cost automation of data analysis and business case presentation for structure-integrated solar energy. In this paper, the scalability and resolution of various methods to assess the urban rooftop PV potential are compared, concluding with suggestions for future work in bridging methodologies to better assist policy makers.

  4. Assessment of liquefaction potential during earthquakes by arias intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayen, R.E.; Mitchell, J.K.

    1997-01-01

    An Arias intensity approach to assess the liquefaction potential of soil deposits during earthquakes is proposed, using an energy-based measure of the severity of earthquake-shaking recorded on seismograms of the two horizontal components of ground motion. Values representing the severity of strong motion at depth in the soil column are associated with the liquefaction resistance of that layer, as measured by in situ penetration testing (SPT, CPT). This association results in a magnitude-independent boundary that envelopes initial liquefaction of soil in Arias intensity-normalized penetration resistance space. The Arias intensity approach is simple to apply and has proven to be highly reliable in assessing liquefaction potential. The advantages of using Arias intensity as a measure of earthquake-shaking severity in liquefaction assessment are: Arias intensity is derived from integration of the entire seismogram wave form, incorporating both the amplitude and duration elements of ground motion; all frequencies of recorded motion are considered; and Arias intensity is an appropriate measure to use when evaluating field penetration test methodologies that are inherently energy-based. Predictor equations describing the attenuation of Arias intensity as a function of earthquake magnitude and source distance are presented for rock, deep-stiff alluvium, and soft soil sites.

  5. Resource potential of bamboo, challenges and future directions towards sustainable management and utilization in Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Getachew Desalegn

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: Bamboo, the fastest growing and high yielding perennial plant of the world has more than 1500 species and 1500 versatile socio-economic uses and ecological services. Ethiopia has two indigenous bamboo species namely Yushania alpina and Oxytenantheria abyssinica, covering about one million ha with a wide distribution. The objective of this paper is to highlight the potential of bamboo resources, challenges including biodeterioration damage, opportunities and future research directions towards its sustainable management and rational utilization.Area of study: Bamboo resources of EthiopiaMaterial and Methods: Reconnaissance survey was done to some parts of the bamboo growing potential areas in Ethiopia besides the literature review. Main results: The bamboo resource, despite its socio-economic and environmental benefits, currently, in most areas has been under high pressure due to land use changes, bamboo mass- flowering, poor processing with low value addition, and damage by biodeteriorating agents (termites, beetles and fungi. The preservative tests on Ethiopian bamboos revealed low natural durability and highlighted the paramount importance of appropriate protection measures such as Tanalith and vehicles used motor oil to increase durability, service life and rational utilization of bamboo-based products and structures as potential alternative construction and furniture material.Research highlights: Therefore, integrated research and development interventions involving different propagation and managements techniques, harvesting season, processing, value addition including proper seasoning and preservation technologies and marketing are recommended to fill the information and technological gaps on sustainable management and rational utilization of this fast growing and multipurpose bamboo resources in Ethiopia.Key words: Bamboo; challenges; management; socio-economic and environmental significance; utilization.

  6. Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: comparative aspects and future perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorne, J L C M; Fink-Gremmels, J

    2013-08-01

    Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Development of an Improved Methodology to Assess Potential Unconventional Gas Resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salazar, Jesus; McVay, Duane A.; Lee, W. John

    2010-01-01

    Considering the important role played today by unconventional gas resources in North America and their enormous potential for the future around the world, it is vital to both policy makers and industry that the volumes of these resources and the impact of technology on these resources be assessed. To provide for optimal decision making regarding energy policy, research funding, and resource development, it is necessary to reliably quantify the uncertainty in these resource assessments. Since the 1970s, studies to assess potential unconventional gas resources have been conducted by various private and governmental agencies, the most rigorous of which was by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The USGS employed a cell-based, probabilistic methodology which used analytical equations to calculate distributions of the resources assessed. USGS assessments have generally produced distributions for potential unconventional gas resources that, in our judgment, are unrealistically narrow for what are essentially undiscovered, untested resources. In this article, we present an improved methodology to assess potential unconventional gas resources. Our methodology is a stochastic approach that includes Monte Carlo simulation and correlation between input variables. Application of the improved methodology to the Uinta-Piceance province of Utah and Colorado with USGS data validates the means and standard deviations of resource distributions produced by the USGS methodology, but reveals that these distributions are not right skewed, as expected for a natural resource. Our investigation indicates that the unrealistic shape and width of the gas resource distributions are caused by the use of narrow triangular input parameter distributions. The stochastic methodology proposed here is more versatile and robust than the USGS analytic methodology. Adoption of the methodology, along with a careful examination and revision of input distributions, should allow a more realistic

  8. Evaluating stakeholder participation in water management: intermediary outcomes as potential indicators for future resource management outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Gemma; Bloeschl, Guenter; Loucks, Daniel Pete

    2013-04-01

    . Furthermore, failure to achieve intermediary outcomes correlates to failure to achieve resource management outcomes. Evaluating intermediary outcomes leads to both a broader assessment of a programme's achievements at the time of evaluation, and can indicate whether a programme will go on to achieve resource management objectives in the future.

  9. Beyond the Dirty Dozen: A Proposed Methodology for Assessing Future Bioweapon Threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cieslak, Theodore J; Kortepeter, Mark G; Wojtyk, Ronald J; Jansen, Hugo-Jan; Reyes, Ricardo A; Smith, James O

    2018-01-01

    Defense policy planners and countermeasure developers are often faced with vexing problems involving the prioritization of resources and efforts. This is especially true in the area of Biodefense, where each new emerging infectious disease outbreak brings with it questions regarding the causative agent's potential for weaponization. Recent experience with West Nile Virus, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, Monkeypox, and H1N1 Influenza highlights this problem. Appropriately, in each of these cases, the possibility of bioterrorism was raised, although each outbreak ultimately proved to have a natural origin. In fact, determining whether an outbreak has an unnatural origin can be quite difficult. Thus, the questions remain: could the causative agents of these and other emerging infectious disease outbreaks pose a future weaponization threat? And how great is that threat? Should precious resources be diverted from other defense efforts in order to prepare for possible hostile employment of novel diseases by belligerents? Answering such critical questions requires some form of systematic threat assessment. Through extensive collaborative work conducted within NATO's Biomedical Advisory Council, we developed a scoring matrix for evaluating the weaponization potential of the causative agents of such diseases and attempted to validate our matrix by examining the reproducibility of data using known threat agents. Our matrix included 12 attributes of a potential weapon and was provided, along with detailed scoring instructions, to 12 groups of biodefense experts in 6 NATO nations. Study participants were asked to score each of these 12 attributes on a scale of 0-3: Infectivity, Infection-to-Disease Ratio (Reliability), Predictability (& Incubation Period), Morbidity & Mortality (Virulence), Ease of Large-Scale Production & Storage, Aerosol Stability, Atmospheric Stability, Ease of Dispersal, Communicability, Prophylactic Countermeasure Availability, Therapeutic

  10. Portfolio assessments for future generation investment in newly industrializing countries – A case study of Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat; MacGill, Iain F.

    2012-01-01

    This paper assesses future electricity generation portfolios in Thailand in 2030 given uncertain future fossil-fuel prices, carbon pricing policies, electricity demand, and capital costs. Thailand faces challenges for generation investment given its rapid socio-economic progress and fast growing demand. A novel generation investment and planning decision-support tool which incorporates a Monte Carlo extension to conventional optimal generation mix methods combined with portfolio-based analysis techniques, is used. The tool can formally assess tradeoffs between expected future generation costs, cost uncertainties, and CO 2 emissions for the range of different generation portfolios. Results highlight that different levels of future carbon pricing will have significant impacts on the most appropriate generation portfolios. The impact of carbon pricing, however, is not on the appropriate proportion of combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT) in the mix but, instead, on the future role of coal versus nuclear in Thailand. Compared with the current proposed 2030 generation mix, it is possible that there are other generation portfolios that offer lower expected costs, cost uncertainty, and CO 2 emissions depending on future carbon pricing. Results suggest that this investment decision-support approach may have value for electric utilities and policy-makers contemplating significant generation investments under high future uncertainty and conflicting policy objectives. -- Highlights: ► Assess Thailand's future generation portfolios in 2030 under uncertainties. ► Future carbon prices have significant impacts on the appropriate generation mixes. ► Carbon pricing affects the future role of coal versus nuclear in Thailand. ► There may be more appropriate alternatives than the proposed 2030 generation mix. ► This decision-support approach has value for utility and policy decision-making.

  11. Future Potential of Hybrid and Diesel Powertrains in the U.S. Light-duty Vehicle Market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, D.L.

    2004-08-23

    Diesel and hybrid technologies each have the potential to increase light-duty vehicle fuel economy by a third or more without loss of performance, yet these technologies have typically been excluded from technical assessments of fuel economy potential on the grounds that hybrids are too expensive and diesels cannot meet Tier 2 emissions standards. Recently, hybrid costs have come down and the few hybrid makes available are selling well. Diesels have made great strides in reducing particulate and nitrogen oxide emissions, and are likely though not certain to meet future standards. In light of these developments, this study takes a detailed look at the market potential of these two powertrain technologies and their possible impacts on light-duty vehicle fuel economy. A nested multinomial logit model of vehicle choice was calibrated to 2002 model year sales of 930 makes, models and engine-transmission configurations. Based on an assessment of the status and outlook for the two technologies, market shares were predicted for 2008, 2012 and beyond, assuming no additional increase in fuel economy standards or other new policy initiatives. Current tax incentives for hybrids are assumed to be phased out by 2008. Given announced and likely introductions by 2008, hybrids could capture 4-7% and diesels 2-4% of the light-duty market. Based on our best guesses for further introductions, these shares could increase to 10-15% for hybrids and 4-7% for diesels by 2012. The resulting impacts on fleet average fuel economy would be about +2% in 2008 and +4% in 2012. If diesels and hybrids were widely available across vehicle classes, makes, and models, they could capture 40% or more of the light-duty vehicle market.

  12. THE POTENTIAL OF BIOCHEMISTRY EDUCATION APPS IN THE FORMATIVE ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. L. Oliveira

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and objectives: Apps can be designed to provide usage data, and most of them do. These data are usually used to map users interests and to deliver more effective ads that are more likely to result in clicks, and sales. We have applied some of these metrics to understand how can it be used to map students’ behavior and to promote a formative assessment using educational software. The purpose of a formative assessment is to monitor student learning to provide ongoing feedback that can be used by instructors and students to improve the teaching and learning process. Thus, this modality aims to help both students and instructors to identify strengths and weaknesses that need to be developed. This study aimed to describe the potential of educational apps in the formative assessment process. Material and Methods: We have implemented assessment tools embedded in three apps (ARMET, The Cell and 3D Class used to teach: 1 Metabolic Pathways; 2 Scale of the cellular structures, and 3 Concepts from techniques used in a Biochemistry Lab course. The implemented tools allow to verify on what issues there were recurring mistakes, the total number of mistakes presented, which questions they most achieved, how long they took to perform the activity and other relevant information. Results and conclusion: Educational apps can provide transparent and coherent evaluation metrics to enable instructors to systematize more consistent criteria and indicators, reducing the subjectivity of the formative assessment process and the time spent for preparation, tabulation and analysis of assessment data. This approach allows instructors to understand better where students struggle, giving to them a more effective feedback. It also helps instructor to plan interventions to help students to perform better and to achieve the learning objectives.

  13. Assessment of potential solder candidates for high temperature applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    pressure to eliminate lead containing materials despite the fact that materials for high Pb containing alloys are currently not affected by any legislations. A tentative assessment was carried out to determine the potential solder candidates for high temperature applications based on the solidification...... criterion, phases predicted in the bulk solder and the thermodynamic stability of chlorides. These promising solder candidates were precisely produced using the hot stage microscope and its respective anodic and cathodic polarization curves were investigated using a micro-electrochemical set up...

  14. Assessing the potential cost of a failed Doha round

    OpenAIRE

    Antoine Bouet

    2010-01-01

    This study offers new conclusions on the economic cost of a failed Doha Development Agenda (DDA). We assess potential outcome of the Doha Round as well as four protectionist scenarios using the MIRAGE Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. In a scenario where applied tariffs of World Trade Organization (WTO) economies would go up to currently bound tariff rates, world trade would decrease by 7.7 % and world welfare by US$353 billion. The economic cost of a failed DDA is here evaluated by...

  15. Potential Errors and Test Assessment in Software Product Line Engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hartmut Lackner

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Software product lines (SPL are a method for the development of variant-rich software systems. Compared to non-variable systems, testing SPLs is extensive due to an increasingly amount of possible products. Different approaches exist for testing SPLs, but there is less research for assessing the quality of these tests by means of error detection capability. Such test assessment is based on error injection into correct version of the system under test. However to our knowledge, potential errors in SPL engineering have never been systematically identified before. This article presents an overview over existing paradigms for specifying software product lines and the errors that can occur during the respective specification processes. For assessment of test quality, we leverage mutation testing techniques to SPL engineering and implement the identified errors as mutation operators. This allows us to run existing tests against defective products for the purpose of test assessment. From the results, we draw conclusions about the error-proneness of the surveyed SPL design paradigms and how quality of SPL tests can be improved.

  16. Computer-aided diagnosis in medical imaging: historical review, current status and future potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doi, Kunio

    2007-01-01

    Computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) has become one of the major research subjects in medical imaging and diagnostic radiology. In this article, the motivation and philosophy for early development of CAD schemes are presented together with the current status and future potential of CAD in a PACS environment. With CAD, radiologists use the computer output as a "second opinion" and make the final decisions. CAD is a concept established by taking into account equally the roles of physicians and computers, whereas automated computer diagnosis is a concept based on computer algorithms only. With CAD, the performance by computers does not have to be comparable to or better than that by physicians, but needs to be complementary to that by physicians. In fact, a large number of CAD systems have been employed for assisting physicians in the early detection of breast cancers on mammograms. A CAD scheme that makes use of lateral chest images has the potential to improve the overall performance in the detection of lung nodules when combined with another CAD scheme for PA chest images. Because vertebral fractures can be detected reliably by computer on lateral chest radiographs, radiologists' accuracy in the detection of vertebral fractures would be improved by the use of CAD, and thus early diagnosis of osteoporosis would become possible. In MRA, a CAD system has been developed for assisting radiologists in the detection of intracranial aneurysms. On successive bone scan images, a CAD scheme for detection of interval changes has been developed by use of temporal subtraction images. In the future, many CAD schemes could be assembled as packages and implemented as a part of PACS. For example, the package for chest CAD may include the computerized detection of lung nodules, interstitial opacities, cardiomegaly, vertebral fractures, and interval changes in chest radiographs as well as the computerized classification of benign and malignant nodules and the differential diagnosis of

  17. Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

    2009-01-01

    Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

  18. Executive summary: Radar imagery interpretation to assess the hydrocarbon potential of four sites in the Phillipines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1988-11-17

    The Republic of the Philippines is intensely interested in the identification, development, and conservation of natural resources. In keeping with this, the Government of the Philippines has recently completed a nationwide sedimentary basin evaluation program to assess hydrocarbon potential and assist in future exploration activities. This program of collection and interpretation of the radar imagery was designed to augment and complement the existing data base. The primary objective of the project was to further the goals of international energy development by aiding the Republic of the Philippines in the assessment of potential petroleum and geothermal prospects within the areas imaged. Secondary goals were to assist the Republic of the Philippines in utilizing state-of-the-art radar remote sensing technology for resource exploration, and to train key Philippines scientists in the use of imaging radar data. 9 refs., 9 figs., 3 tabs.

  19. Chemical conditions in present and future ecosystems in Forsmark - implications for selected radionuclides in the safety assessment SR-Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Troejbom, Mats; Grolander, Sara

    2010-12-01

    This report is a background report for the biosphere analysis of the SR-Site Safety Assessment. This work aims to describe the future development of the chemical conditions at Forsmark, based on the present chemical conditions at landscape level taking landscape development and climate cases into consideration. The results presented contribute to the overall understanding of the present and future chemistry in the Forsmark area, and specifically, to the understanding of the behaviour of some selected radionuclides in the surface system. The future development of the chemistry at the site is qualitatively discussed with focus on the interglacial within the next 10,000 years. The effects on the chemical environment of future climate cases as Global Warming and cold permafrost climates are also briefly discussed. The work is presented in two independent parts describing background radionuclide activities in the Forsmark area and the distribution and behaviour of a large number of stable elements in the landscape. In a concluding section, implications of the future chemical environment of a selection of radionuclides important in the Safety Assessment are discussed based on the knowledge of stable elements. The broad range of elements studied show that there are general and expected patterns for the distribution and behaviour in the landscape of different groups of elements. Mass balances reveal major sources and sinks, pool estimations show where elements are accumulated in the landscape and estimations of time-scales give indications of the potential future development. This general knowledge is transferred to radionuclides not measured in order to estimate their behaviour and distribution in the landscape. It could be concluded that the future development of the chemical environment in the Forsmark area might affect element specific parameters used in de radionuclide model in different directions depending on element. The alternative climate cases, Global Warming

  20. Chemical conditions in present and future ecosystems in Forsmark - implications for selected radionuclides in the safety assessment SR-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Troejbom, Mats (Mats Troejbom Konsult AB (Sweden)); Grolander, Sara (Facilia AB (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    This report is a background report for the biosphere analysis of the SR-Site Safety Assessment. This work aims to describe the future development of the chemical conditions at Forsmark, based on the present chemical conditions at landscape level taking landscape development and climate cases into consideration. The results presented contribute to the overall understanding of the present and future chemistry in the Forsmark area, and specifically, to the understanding of the behaviour of some selected radionuclides in the surface system. The future development of the chemistry at the site is qualitatively discussed with focus on the interglacial within the next 10,000 years. The effects on the chemical environment of future climate cases as Global Warming and cold permafrost climates are also briefly discussed. The work is presented in two independent parts describing background radionuclide activities in the Forsmark area and the distribution and behaviour of a large number of stable elements in the landscape. In a concluding section, implications of the future chemical environment of a selection of radionuclides important in the Safety Assessment are discussed based on the knowledge of stable elements. The broad range of elements studied show that there are general and expected patterns for the distribution and behaviour in the landscape of different groups of elements. Mass balances reveal major sources and sinks, pool estimations show where elements are accumulated in the landscape and estimations of time-scales give indications of the potential future development. This general knowledge is transferred to radionuclides not measured in order to estimate their behaviour and distribution in the landscape. It could be concluded that the future development of the chemical environment in the Forsmark area might affect element specific parameters used in de radionuclide model in different directions depending on element. The alternative climate cases, Global Warming

  1. Anesthetic gases and global warming: Potentials, prevention and future of anesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadani, Hina; Vyas, Arun

    2011-01-01

    Global warming refers to an average increase in the earth's temperature, which in turn causes changes in climate. A warmer earth may lead to changes in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea level, and a wide range of impacts on plants, wildlife, and humans. Greenhouse gases make the earth warmer by trapping energy inside the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases are any gas that absorbs infrared radiation in the atmosphere and include: water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), halogenated fluorocarbons (HCFCs), ozone (O3), perfluorinated carbons (PFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Hazardous chemicals enter the air we breathe as a result of dozens of activities carried out during a typical day at a healthcare facility like processing lab samples, burning fossil fuels etc. We sometimes forget that anesthetic agents are also greenhouse gases (GHGs). Anesthetic agents used today are volatile halogenated ethers and the common carrier gas nitrous oxide known to be aggressive GHGs. With less than 5% of the total delivered halogenated anesthetic being metabolized by the patient, the vast majority of the anesthetic is routinely vented to the atmosphere through the operating room scavenging system. The global warming potential (GWP) of a halogenated anesthetic is up to 2,000 times greater than CO2. Global warming potentials are used to compare the strength of different GHGs to trap heat in the atmosphere relative to that of CO2. Here we discuss about the GWP of anesthetic gases, preventive measures to decrease the global warming effects of anesthetic gases and Xenon, a newer anesthetic gas for the future of anesthesia.

  2. Invader Relative Impact Potential: a new metric to understand and predict the ecological impacts of existing, emerging and future invasive alien species

    OpenAIRE

    Dick, JTA; Laverty, C; Lennon, JJ; Barrios-O'Neill, D; Mensink, PJ; Britton, JR; Medoc, V; Boets, P; Alexander, ME; Taylor, NG; Dunn, AM; Hatcher, MJ; Rosewarne, PJ; Crookes, S; MacIsaac, HJ

    2017-01-01

    1. Predictions of the identities and ecological impacts of invasive alien species are critical for risk assessment, but presently we lack universal and standardized metrics that reliably predict the likelihood and degree of impact of such invaders (i.e. measurable changes in populations of affected species). This need is especially pressing for emerging and potential future invaders that have no invasion history. Such a metric would also ideally apply across diverse taxonomic and trophic gro...

  3. Beyond speculative robot ethics: a vision assessment study on the future of the robotic caretaker.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Plas, Arjanna; Smits, Martijntje; Wehrmann, Caroline

    2010-11-01

    In this article we develop a dialogue model for robot technology experts and designated users to discuss visions on the future of robotics in long-term care. Our vision assessment study aims for more distinguished and more informed visions on future robots. Surprisingly, our experiment also led to some promising co-designed robot concepts in which jointly articulated moral guidelines are embedded. With our model, we think to have designed an interesting response on a recent call for a less speculative ethics of technology by encouraging discussions about the quality of positive and negative visions on the future of robotics.

  4. Future Climate Change Impact Assessment of River Flows at Two Watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

    2016-12-01

    Impacts of climate change on the river flows under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate model and a physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations. Coarse resolution GCMs' future projections covering a wide range of emission scenarios were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over the study area. Hydrologic simulations of the two selected watersheds were carried out at hillslope-scale and at hourly increments.

  5. Multi-model and multi-scenario assessments of Asian water futures: The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Kahil, Taher; Byers, Edward; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Greve, Peter; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Magnuszewski, Piotr; Nava, Luzma Fabiola; Cosgrove, William; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water supply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry, and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30-40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6-2 billion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to gross domestic product (GDP) growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21st century.

  6. A multivariate geostatistical methodology to delineate areas of potential interest for future sedimentary gold exploration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goovaerts, P; Albuquerque, Teresa; Antunes, Margarida

    2016-11-01

    This paper describes a multivariate geostatistical methodology to delineate areas of potential interest for future sedimentary gold exploration, with an application to an abandoned sedimentary gold mining region in Portugal. The main challenge was the existence of only a dozen gold measurements confined to the grounds of the old gold mines, which precluded the application of traditional interpolation techniques, such as cokriging. The analysis could, however, capitalize on 376 stream sediment samples that were analyzed for twenty two elements. Gold (Au) was first predicted at all 376 locations using linear regression (R 2 =0.798) and four metals (Fe, As, Sn and W), which are known to be mostly associated with the local gold's paragenesis. One hundred realizations of the spatial distribution of gold content were generated using sequential indicator simulation and a soft indicator coding of regression estimates, to supplement the hard indicator coding of gold measurements. Each simulated map then underwent a local cluster analysis to identify significant aggregates of low or high values. The one hundred classified maps were processed to derive the most likely classification of each simulated node and the associated probability of occurrence. Examining the distribution of the hot-spots and cold-spots reveals a clear enrichment in Au along the Erges River downstream from the old sedimentary mineralization.

  7. Present and Potential Future Distributions of Asian Horseshoe Crabs Determine Areas for Conservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stine Vestbo

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Conservation of horseshoe crabs has recently received increasing attention as several populations are in decline. However, scarce information on their distributions in Southeast Asia is impairing conservation efforts. In this study, we sought to improve our understanding of the geographical range and distinct populations of the three Asian horseshoe crabs species in order to identify optimal conservation areas. We mapped the geographic range of Carcinoscorpius rotundicauda, Tachypleus gigas, and T. tridentatus using recent data from field work, literature, Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF, and unpublished data from our scientific network. The data were correlated with 23 different environmental variables of potential ecological importance for horseshoe crabs using the openModeller webservices, including new tidal variables. Ecological niche models were generated using two algorithms, Maximum Entropy and support vector machine, for the three species under present conditions, and projected into a climate change scenario of 2050. The niches of the Asian horseshoe crabs were mostly determined by tidal regime, chlorophyll A concentrations, depth, distance to land, and sea surface temperature. According to our predictions, horseshoe crabs in Southeast Asia are not expected to experience any severe change in extent and distribution of suitable habitat in the future. In order to conserve Asian horseshoe crabs, we suggest establishing Marine Protected Areas at locations where distinct populations and several species occur, such as northern Vietnam, China, Borneo, and southern Japan.

  8. Future malaria spatial pattern based on the potential global warming impact in South and Southeast Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan M. Khormi

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-H climate model with the A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100 and CLIMEX software for projections to illustrate the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distributions of malaria in China, India, Indochina, Indonesia, and The Philippines based on climate variables such as temperature, moisture, heat, cold and dryness. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including geographical distribution records. The areas in which malaria has currently been detected are consistent with those showing high values of the ecoclimatic index in the CLIMEX model. The match between prediction and reality was found to be high. More than 90% of the observed malaria distribution points were associated with the currently known suitable climate conditions. Climate suitability for malaria is projected to decrease in India, southern Myanmar, southern Thailand, eastern Borneo, and the region bordering Cambodia, Malaysia and the Indonesian islands, while it is expected to increase in southern and south-eastern China and Taiwan. The climatic models for Anopheles mosquitoes presented here should be useful for malaria control, monitoring, and management, particularly considering these future climate scenarios.

  9. The 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Lourenço

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Dengue, a vector-borne viral disease of increasing global importance, is classically associated with tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Urbanisation, globalisation and climate trends, however, are facilitating the geographic spread of its mosquito vectors, thereby increasing the risk of the virus establishing itself in previously unaffected areas and causing large-scale epidemics. On 3 October 2012, two autochthonous dengue infections were reported within the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal. During the following seven months, this first 'European' dengue outbreak caused more than 2000 local cases and 81 exported cases to mainland Europe. Here, using an ento-epidemiological mathematical framework, we estimate that the introduction of dengue to Madeira occurred around a month before the first official cases, during the period of maximum influx of airline travel, and that the naturally declining temperatures of autumn were the determining factor for the outbreak's demise in early December 2012. Using key estimates, together with local climate data, we further propose that there is little support for dengue endemicity on this island, but a high potential for future epidemic outbreaks when seeded between May and August-a period when detection of imported cases is crucial for Madeira's public health planning.

  10. Potential of building-scale alternative energy to alleviate risk from the future price of energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bristow, David; Kennedy, Christopher A.

    2010-01-01

    The energy used for building operations, the associated greenhouse gas emissions, and the uncertainties in future price of natural gas and electricity can be a cause of concern for building owners and policy makers. In this work we explore the potential of building-scale alternative energy technologies to reduce demand and emissions while also shielding building owners from the risks associated with fluctuations in the price of natural gas and grid electricity. We analyze the monetary costs and benefits over the life cycle of five technologies (photovoltaic and wind electricity generation, solar air and water heating, and ground source heat pumps) over three audience or building types (homeowners, small businesses, large commercial and institutional entities). The analysis includes a Monte Carlo analysis to measure risk that can be compared to other investment opportunities. The results indicate that under government incentives and climate of Toronto, Canada, the returns are relatively high for small degrees of risks for a number of technologies. Ground source heat pumps prove to be exceptionally good investments in terms of their energy savings, emission, reductions, and economics, while the bigger buildings tend also to be better economic choices for the use of these technologies.

  11. Computer-aided diagnosis for screening of breast cancer on mammograms. Current status and future potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doi, Kunio

    2007-01-01

    Described are the history, current status and future potential of computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) with particular emphasis on screening mammography for breast cancer. The systematic basic and clinical studies on CAD started around 20 years before and the significance of CAD has been well recognized to be evident because of human errors occurring in the visual check by doctors of so numerous screening images. Improvement of diagnostic accuracy by CAD has been demonstrated by statistical analysis of ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curves. In mammography, reviewed is detection of the early stage breast cancer like microcalcifications by computer alone, by CAD plus one or more doctors' reading, and by practical clinical CAD diagnosis. For differential diagnosis for malignancy, microcalcifications and masses are given their characteristic image properties and the results are that the Az-value (area under ROC curve) is higher in CAD than in doctor's (0.80 vs 0.61) in the former and, doctor's (0.93) is improved by CAD to 0.96 in the latter masses. In this diagnosis, similar images in the digital database are useful and the database can learn by repeated input of individual data by neural network. Detection of the lesion and especially, its differential diagnosis will be more important in parallel to database development and CAD will be also useful for doctor' carrier as an educational mean. (R.T.)

  12. Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) based advanced dermal therapeutics: current trends and future potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuche, Kaushik; Maheshwari, Rahul; Tambe, Vishakha; Mak, Kit-Kay; Jogi, Hardi; Raval, Nidhi; Pichika, Mallikarjuna Rao; Kumar Tekade, Rakesh

    2018-05-17

    The search for effective and non-invasive delivery modules to transport therapeutic molecules across skin has led to the discovery of a number of nanocarriers (viz.: liposomes, ethosomes, dendrimers, etc.) in the last few decades. However, available literature suggests that these delivery modules face several issues including poor stability, low encapsulation efficiency, and scale-up hurdles. Recently, carbon nanotubes (CNTs) emerged as a versatile tool to deliver therapeutics across skin. Superior stability, high loading capacity, well-developed synthesis protocol as well as ease of scale-up are some of the reason for growing interest in CNTs. CNTs have a unique physical architecture and a large surface area with unique surface chemistry that can be tailored for vivid biomedical applications. CNTs have been thus largely engaged in the development of transdermal systems such as tuneable hydrogels, programmable nonporous membranes, electroresponsive skin modalities, protein channel mimetic platforms, reverse iontophoresis, microneedles, and dermal buckypapers. In addition, CNTs were also employed in the development of RNA interference (RNAi) based therapeutics for correcting defective dermal genes. This review expounds the state-of-art synthesis methodologies, skin penetration mechanism, drug liberation profile, loading potential, characterization techniques, and transdermal applications along with a summary on patent/regulatory status and future scope of CNT based skin therapeutics.

  13. The battle of Alzheimer's Disease - the beginning of the future Unleashing the potential of academic discoveries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundkvist, Johan; Halldin, Magnus M; Sandin, Johan; Nordvall, Gunnar; Forsell, Pontus; Svensson, Samuel; Jansson, Liselotte; Johansson, Gunilla; Winblad, Bengt; Ekstrand, Jonas

    2014-01-01

    Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is the most common form of dementia, affecting approximately 36 million people worldwide. To date there is no preventive or curative treatment available for AD, and in absence of major progress in therapeutic development, AD manifests a concrete socioeconomic threat. The awareness of the growing problem of AD is increasing, exemplified by the recent G8 Dementia Summit, a meeting held in order to set the stage and steer the compass for the future. Simultaneously, and paradoxically, we have seen key players in the pharmaceutical industry that have recently closed or significantly decreased their R&D spending on AD and other CNS disorders. Given the pressing need for new treatments in this area, other actors need to step-in and enter this drug discovery arena complementing the industrial efforts, in order to turn biological and technological progress into novel therapeutics. In this article, we present an example of a novel drug discovery initiative that in a non-profit setting, aims to integrate with both preclinical and clinical academic groups and pharmaceutical industry to explore the therapeutic potential of new concepts in patients, using novel biology, state of the art technologies and rapid concept testing.

  14. Floating Offshore Wind in Oregon: Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts from Two Future Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jimenez, Tony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tegen, Suzanne [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Speer, Bethany [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-05-01

    Construction of the first offshore wind power plant in the United States began in 2015, off the coast of Rhode Island, using fixed platform structures that are appropriate for shallow seafloors, like those located off of the East Coast and mid-Atlantic. However, floating platforms, which have yet to be deployed commercially, will likely need to anchor to the deeper seafloor if deployed off of the West Coast. To analyze the employment and economic potential for floating offshore wind along the West Coast, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to analyze two hypothetical, large-scale deployment scenarios for Oregon: 5,500 megawatts (MW) of offshore wind deployment in Oregon by 2050 (Scenario A), and 2,900 MW of offshore wind by 2050 (Scenario B). These levels of deployment could power approximately 1,600,000 homes (Scenario A) or 870,000 homes (Scenario B). Offshore wind would contribute to economic development in Oregon in the near future, and more substantially in the long term, especially if equipment and labor are sourced from within the state. According to the analysis, over the 2020-2050 period, Oregon floating offshore wind facilities could support 65,000-97,000 job-years and add $6.8 billion-$9.9 billion to the state GDP (Scenario A).

  15. Geologic evolution of the Jemez Mountains and their potential for future volcanic activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burton, B.W.

    1982-01-01

    Geophysical and geochemical data and the geologic history of the Rio Grande rift and the vicinity of the Jemez Mountains are summarized to determine the probability of future volcanic activity in the Los Alamos, New Mexico area. The apparent cyclic nature of volcanism in the Jemez Mountains may be related to intermittent thermal inputs into the volcanic system beneath the region. The Jemez lineament, an alignment of late Cenozoic volcanic centers that crosses the rift near Los Alamos, has played an important role in the volcanic evolution of the Jemez Mountains. Geophysical data suggest that there is no active shallow magma body beneath the Valles caldera, though magma probably exists at about 15 km beneath this portion of the rift. The rate of volcanism in the Jemez Mountains during the last 10 million years has been 5 x 10 -9 /km 2 /y. Lava or ash flows overriding Laboratory radioactive waste disposal sites would have little potential to release radionuclides to the environment. The probability of a new volcano intruding close enough to a radioactive waste disposal site to effect radionuclide release is 2 x 10 -7 /y

  16. Applying quantitative structure–activity relationship approaches to nanotoxicology: Current status and future potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, David A.; Mombelli, Enrico; Pietroiusti, Antonio; Tran, Lang; Worth, Andrew; Fadeel, Bengt; McCall, Maxine J.

    2013-01-01

    The potential (eco)toxicological hazard posed by engineered nanoparticles is a major scientific and societal concern since several industrial sectors (e.g. electronics, biomedicine, and cosmetics) are exploiting the innovative properties of nanostructures resulting in their large-scale production. Many consumer products contain nanomaterials and, given their complex life-cycle, it is essential to anticipate their (eco)toxicological properties in a fast and inexpensive way in order to mitigate adverse effects on human health and the environment. In this context, the application of the structure–toxicity paradigm to nanomaterials represents a promising approach. Indeed, according to this paradigm, it is possible to predict toxicological effects induced by chemicals on the basis of their structural similarity with chemicals for which toxicological endpoints have been previously measured. These structure–toxicity relationships can be quantitative or qualitative in nature and they can predict toxicological effects directly from the physicochemical properties of the entities (e.g. nanoparticles) of interest. Therefore, this approach can aid in prioritizing resources in toxicological investigations while reducing the ethical and monetary costs that are related to animal testing. The purpose of this review is to provide a summary of recent key advances in the field of QSAR modelling of nanomaterial toxicity, to identify the major gaps in research required to accelerate the use of quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) methods, and to provide a roadmap for future research needed to achieve QSAR models useful for regulatory purposes

  17. The 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lourenço, José; Recker, Mario

    2014-08-01

    Dengue, a vector-borne viral disease of increasing global importance, is classically associated with tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Urbanisation, globalisation and climate trends, however, are facilitating the geographic spread of its mosquito vectors, thereby increasing the risk of the virus establishing itself in previously unaffected areas and causing large-scale epidemics. On 3 October 2012, two autochthonous dengue infections were reported within the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal. During the following seven months, this first 'European' dengue outbreak caused more than 2000 local cases and 81 exported cases to mainland Europe. Here, using an ento-epidemiological mathematical framework, we estimate that the introduction of dengue to Madeira occurred around a month before the first official cases, during the period of maximum influx of airline travel, and that the naturally declining temperatures of autumn were the determining factor for the outbreak's demise in early December 2012. Using key estimates, together with local climate data, we further propose that there is little support for dengue endemicity on this island, but a high potential for future epidemic outbreaks when seeded between May and August-a period when detection of imported cases is crucial for Madeira's public health planning.

  18. Future malaria spatial pattern based on the potential global warming impact in South and Southeast Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khormi, Hassan M; Kumar, Lalit

    2016-11-21

    We used the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-H climate model with the A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100 and CLIMEX software for projections to illustrate the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distributions of malaria in China, India, Indochina, Indonesia, and The Philippines based on climate variables such as temperature, moisture, heat, cold and dryness. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including geographical distribution records. The areas in which malaria has currently been detected are consistent with those showing high values of the ecoclimatic index in the CLIMEX model. The match between prediction and reality was found to be high. More than 90% of the observed malaria distribution points were associated with the currently known suitable climate conditions. Climate suitability for malaria is projected to decrease in India, southern Myanmar, southern Thailand, eastern Borneo, and the region bordering Cambodia, Malaysia and the Indonesian islands, while it is expected to increase in southern and south-eastern China and Taiwan. The climatic models for Anopheles mosquitoes presented here should be useful for malaria control, monitoring, and management, particularly considering these future climate scenarios.

  19. Artificial intelligence in diagnosis of obstructive lung disease: current status and future potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Nilakash; Topalovic, Marko; Janssens, Wim

    2018-03-01

    The application of artificial intelligence in the diagnosis of obstructive lung diseases is an exciting phenomenon. Artificial intelligence algorithms work by finding patterns in data obtained from diagnostic tests, which can be used to predict clinical outcomes or to detect obstructive phenotypes. The purpose of this review is to describe the latest trends and to discuss the future potential of artificial intelligence in the diagnosis of obstructive lung diseases. Machine learning has been successfully used in automated interpretation of pulmonary function tests for differential diagnosis of obstructive lung diseases. Deep learning models such as convolutional neural network are state-of-the art for obstructive pattern recognition in computed tomography. Machine learning has also been applied in other diagnostic approaches such as forced oscillation test, breath analysis, lung sound analysis and telemedicine with promising results in small-scale studies. Overall, the application of artificial intelligence has produced encouraging results in the diagnosis of obstructive lung diseases. However, large-scale studies are still required to validate current findings and to boost its adoption by the medical community.

  20. Current Status and Future Potential of Energy Derived from Chinese Agricultural Land: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ningning Zhai

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Energy crisis is receiving attention with regard to the global economy and environmental sustainable development. Developing new energy resources to optimize the energy supply structure has become an important measure to prevent energy shortage as well as achieving energy conservation and emission reduction in China. This study proposed the concept of energy agriculture and constructed an energy agricultural technical support system based on the analysis of energy supply and demand and China’s foreign dependence on energy resources, combined with the function of agriculture in the energy field. Manufacturing technology equipment and agricultural and forestry energy, including crop or forestry plants and animal feces, were used in the system. The current status and future potential of China’s marginal land resources, energy crop germplasm resources, and agricultural and forestry waste energy-oriented resources were analyzed. Developing the function of traditional agriculture in food production may promote China’s social, economic, and environmental sustainable development and achieve energy saving and emission reduction.

  1. Hydrological assessment for mini hydropower potential at Sungai Pahang - Temerloh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sidek, L M; Zaki, A Z A; Muda, Z C; Basri, H; Mustaffa, Z; Ibrahim, M I H; Thiruchelvam, S

    2013-01-01

    Sg Pahang at Temerloh was considered for assessment of hydropower potential using hydrological analysis method and hydrological model. The available data related to topography, soil, land use, weather and discharge pertaining to the study catchment were used to characterize the catchment. The characterization was required for water resources hence hydropower assessment. The hydrology of the study catchment was simulated through the model. This hydrological study is required due to the proposed mini hydroelectric power plant at Pulau Temerloh. It is essential to evaluate the existing river flow characteristic and to model the environmental flow assessment of the river. Two rainfalll stations, JPS Temerloh and Pintu Kawalan Paya Kertam Station are selected to develop the Rainfall Intensity Duration frequency (RIDF) Curve to determine the rainfall intensity of the area. Daily river flow were recorded at Sg Pahang at Temerloh and Sg Pahang at Lubok Paku were used to develop the Flow Duration Curve (FDC) to study the characteristic of Sungai Pahang flow. The 7 days low flow with 10 years return period (7Q10 low flow) was obtained using both Gumbel Method and Log Pearson Type III Method. The results from FDC shows that 50% percentage of time the Sg Pahang - Temerloh is exceeded over a historical period is 400 m 3 /s and 50% percentage of time the Sg Pahang - Lubok Paku is exceeded over a historical period is 650 m 3 /s. The required environmental flow are set to be 7Q10 low flow which is 64.215 m 3 /s for Sg Pahang at Temerloh and 79.24 m 3 /s for Sg Pahang at Lubok Paku. The results show the water resources are abundant and hence boost the mini hydropower potentiality at Sg Pahang.

  2. Potential of future seismogenesis in Hebei Province (NE China) due to stress interactions between strong earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karakostas, Vassilios; Papadimitriou, Eleftheria; Jin, Xueshen; Liu, Zhihui; Paradisopoulou, Parthena; He, Zhang

    2013-10-01

    Northeast China, a densely populated area, is affected by intense seismic activity, which includes large events that caused extensive disaster and tremendous loss of life. For contributing to the continuous efforts for seismic hazard assessment, the earthquake potential from the active faults near the cities of Zhangjiakou and Langfang in Hebei Province is examined. We estimate the effect of the coseismic stress changes of strong (M ⩾ 5.0) earthquakes on the major regional active faults, and mapped Coulomb stress change onto these target faults. More importantly our calculations reveal that positive stress changes caused by the largest events of the 1976 Tangshan sequence make the Xiadian and part of Daxing fault, thus considered the most likely sites of the next strong earthquake in the study area. The accumulated static stress changes that reached a value of up to 0.4 bar onto these faults, were subsequently incorporated in earthquake probability estimates for the next 30 years.

  3. Future potentials for using osteogenic stem cells and biomaterials in orthopedics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oreffo, R O; Triffitt, J T

    1999-08-01

    osteogenesis imperfecta, for example, where in more severely affected individuals any improvements in long bone quality would be beneficial to the patient. In conclusion, the potentials for using osteogenic stem cells and biomaterials in orthopedics for skeletal healing is immense, and work in this area is likely to expand significantly in the future.

  4. Acid mine drainage in Australia: its extent and potential future liability. Supervising Scientist Report 125

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harries, J.

    1997-01-01

    In order to better understand the impact of acid drainage in Australia and to provide a basis for assessing long-term management options, the Office of the Supervising Scientist (OSS) and the Australian Centre for Minesite Rehabilitation Research (ACMRR) initiated this study to prepare a status report on acid mine drainage in Australia. The study is supported by the Minerals Council of Australia. The coverage of this study includes all mine sites where sulphidic oxidation in mine wastes or mine workings leads to the release of contaminated drainage with off-site impacts. The objectives of the study were: 1. to quantify and characterise the generation of contaminated drainage by sulphidic oxidation from historic and current mining activities in Australia; 2. to develop a classification scheme to characterise the potential for off-site impacts from sulphidic oxidation in mine wastes; 3. to compare the cost at the national level of managing sulphidic oxidation in mine wastes and any resulting contaminated drainage with other mining and environmental costs; 4. to make recommendations based on the information received to improve the understanding and management of acid mine drainage in Australia. Information was collected on the extent and management of sulphidic oxidation and acid drainage at operating, historic and derelict mines in Australia. Mining operators, environmental officers, industry representatives, state government departments and others were asked about their experience with acid mine drainage and how it is currently managed at operating and historic mine sites. Based on the information collected, the additional cost of managing potentially acid generating wastes at operating mine sites is estimated to be about AUD 60 million per year. Potentially, the financial risk could be much greater if sulphide oxidation and release of pollutants is discovered after mine closure, as was the case for historic sites like Mt Lyell, Rum Jungle or Mt Morgan. The

  5. Evaluating potentials for future generation off-shore wind-power outside Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benestad, R. E.; Haugen, J.; Haakenstad, H.

    2012-12-01

    With todays critical need of renewable energy sources, it is naturally to look towards wind power. With the long coast of Norway, there is a large potential for wind farms offshore Norway. Although there are more challenges with offshore wind energy installations compared to wind farms on land, the offshore wind is generally higher, and there is also higher persistence of wind speed values in the power generating classes. I planning offshore wind farms, there is a need of evaluation of the wind resources, the wind climatology and possible future changes. In this aspect, we use data from regional climate model runs performed in the European ENSEMBLE-project (van der Linden and J.F.B. Mitchell, 2009). In spite of increased reliability in RCMs in the recent years, the simulations still suffer from systematic model errors, therefore the data has to be corrected before using them in wind resource analyses. In correcting the wind speeds from the RCMs, we will use wind speeds from a Norwegian high resolution wind- and wave- archive, NORA10 (Reistad et al 2010), to do quantile mapping (Themeβl et. al. 2012). The quantile mapping is performed individually for each regional simulation driven by ERA40-reanalysis from the ENSEMBLE-project corrected against NORA10. The same calibration is then used to the belonging regional climate scenario. The calibration is done for each grid cell in the domain and for each day of the year centered in a +/-15 day window to make an empirical cumulative density function for each day of the year. The quantile mapping of the scenarios provide us with a new wind speed data set for the future, more correct compared to the raw ENSEMBLE scenarios. References: Reistad M., Ø. Breivik, H. Haakenstad, O. J. Aarnes, B. R. Furevik and J-R Bidlo, 2010, A high-resolution hindcast of wind and waves for The North Sea, The Norwegian Sea and The Barents Sea. J. Geophys. Res., 116. doi:10.1029/2010JC006402. Themessl M. J., A. Gobiet and A. Leuprecht, 2012

  6. Assessing the Future of Distributed Wind: Opportunities for Behind-the-Meter Projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Preus, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Baring-Gould, Ian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-11-01

    Wind power is one of the fastest growing sources of new electricity generation in the United States. Cumulative installed capacity was more than 74,000 megawatts (MW) at year-end 2015 and wind power supplied 4.7% of total 2015 U.S. electricity generation. Despite the growth of the wind power industry, the distributed wind market has remained limited. Cumulative installations of distributed wind through 2015 totaled 934 MW. This first-of-a-kind exploratory analysis characterizes the future opportunity for behind-the-meter distributed wind, serving primarily rural or suburban homes, farms, and manufacturing facilities. This work focuses only on the grid-connected, behind-the-meter subset of the broader distributed wind market. We estimate this segment to be approximately half of the 934 MW of total installed distributed wind capacity at year-end 2015. Potential from other distributed wind market segments including systems installed in front of the meter (e.g., community wind) and in remote, off-grid locations is not assessed in this analysis and therefore, would be additive to results presented here. These other distributed wind market segments are not considered in this initial effort because of their relatively unique economic and market attributes.

  7. Potential ecological risk assessment and predicting zinc accumulation in soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baran, Agnieszka; Wieczorek, Jerzy; Mazurek, Ryszard; Urbański, Krzysztof; Klimkowicz-Pawlas, Agnieszka

    2018-02-01

    The aims of this study were to investigate zinc content in the studied soils; evaluate the efficiency of geostatistics in presenting spatial variability of zinc in the soils; assess bioavailable forms of zinc in the soils and to assess soil-zinc binding ability; and to estimate the potential ecological risk of zinc in soils. The study was conducted in southern Poland, in the Malopolska Province. This area is characterized by a great diversity of geological structures and types of land use and intensity of industrial development. The zinc content was affected by soil factors, and the type of land use (arable lands, grasslands, forests, wastelands). A total of 320 soil samples were characterized in terms of physicochemical properties (texture, pH, organic C content, total and available Zn content). Based on the obtained data, assessment of the ecological risk of zinc was conducted using two methods: potential ecological risk index and hazard quotient. Total Zn content in the soils ranged from 8.27 to 7221 mg kg -1 d.m. Based on the surface semivariograms, the highest variability of zinc in the soils was observed from northwest to southeast. The point sources of Zn contamination were located in the northwestern part of the area, near the mining-metallurgical activity involving processing of zinc and lead ores. These findings were confirmed by the arrangement of semivariogram surfaces and bivariate Moran's correlation coefficients. The content of bioavailable forms of zinc was between 0.05 and 46.19 mg kg -1 d.m. (0.01 mol dm -3 CaCl 2 ), and between 0.03 and 71.54 mg kg -1 d.m. (1 mol dm -3 NH 4 NO 3 ). Forest soils had the highest zinc solubility, followed by arable land, grassland and wasteland. PCA showed that organic C was the key factor to control bioavailability of zinc in the soils. The extreme, very high and medium zinc accumulation was found in 69% of studied soils. There is no ecological risk of zinc to living organisms in the study area, and in 90

  8. WP-Cave - assessment of feasibility, safety and development potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-09-01

    According to SKB R and D-programme 1986, alternative disposal methods will be investigated to provide a basis for selecting a site and a repository system for the Swedish spent nuclear fuel. The present report is a comparison between the WP-Cave and the reference concept KBS-3. The comparison has resulted in the following conclusions: - Both concepts are judged to be able to provide adequate safety. - A utilization of the potential of the WP-Cave requires, however, extensive development in areas where the current state of knowledge and available data are incomplete. - The higher temperatures in the WP-Cave lead to greater uncertainty as to long-term performance. Reducing this uncertainty would require many yaers of research and substantial resources. - Both repositories, including the barriers they incorporate, could be built with a normal adaption of available technology. -It is not possible to say today whether it would be simpler to find suitable sites for one design or the other. - The WP-Cave is considerably more expensive. A future research direction based on a concentrated emplacement of spent fuel along the lines of the WP-Cave is therefore judged to entail greater uncertainty as regards the possibilities of achieving acceptable safety and to require greater resources for research and development, at the same time as the costs of building the repository would be higher. The studies of the WP-Cave as an integral system should therfore be discontinued. Certain barrier designs in the WP-Cave could also be utulized in repository designs with lower temperature, for example the reduction potential of the steel canisters and the hydraulic cage's diversion of groundwater. Studies within these areas are being conducted within SKB and should continue

  9. Analysis of the Economic Potential for a Mercosur Rice Futures Market

    OpenAIRE

    Waldemar Antonio da Rocha de Souza; João Gomes Martines-Filho; Claudio Zancan; Antonio Carlos Silva Costa; Andreza Galindo Alves de Queiróz

    2015-01-01

    World rice production reached 488.4 thousand tons, in 2012. Asian countries are the world’s largest rice producers, followed by Latinamerica, particularly Brazil, where rice is a basic food item. In spite of the clear economic benefits bestowed by commodity futures markets, neither Asia nor Mercosur have implemented a regional rice futures market. In sum, we propose to investigate the feasibility of a Brazilian rice futures contract to serve the Mercosur region by estimating Me...

  10. MEDIA ENVIRONMENT AS FACTOR OF REALIZATION OF CREATIVE POTENTIAL OF FUTURE TEACHERS` IN THE MOUNTAIN SCHOOLS OF THE UKRAINIAN CARPATHIANS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alla Lebedieva

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The article shows up “media environment” as a factor of future teachers` creative potential realization in the mountainous schools of the Ukrainian Carpathians. The problem of using media environment as a factor of future teachers` creative potential in the mountainous schools of the Ukrainian Carpathians and the ways of its optimization is the main point of this research. Highlights ways to modernize social and professional orientation training of students in the creative process of nature is situates in information education and educational environment of high school. We consider the causal link use media environment as a factor of future teachers` creative potential and complexity of the teacher in the mountainous schools of the Ukrainian Carpathians. The basic function of the media environment are extensity, instrumental, communicative, interactive, multimedia. Reveals some aspects of training students to creatively active teaching process we describe subjects with objective possibilities in the formation of professional skills of future teachers` and which directly affect the realization of creative potential – “Ukrainian folk art”, “Basic recitation and rhetoric”, “The basis of pedagogical creativity”. The necessity of creating a full-fledged media environment in higher education is important condition of successful education as an important factor that allows the efficiency of the creative potential of future teachers` in the mountainous schools of the Ukrainian Carpathians.

  11. Policy Research Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Impacts of Urban Expansion into Farmlands and Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael R. Guzy

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of urban land uses into farmlands and forests requires an assessment of future ecological impacts. Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies. When modeling complex adaptive systems, both the methods used to interpret results and the standards of rigor used to judge adequacy are complicated and require additional research. Recent studies suggest that it would be appropriate to use these models as an extension of exploratory analysis. This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about potential changes to the system. In this study, we develop understanding of the potential alternative futures for a social-ecological system by way of successive simulations that test variations in the types and numbers of policies. The model addresses the agricultural-urban interface and the preservation of ecosystem services. The landscape analyzed is at the junction of the McKenzie and Willamette Rivers adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield in Lane County, Oregon. Our exploration of alternative future scenarios suggests that policies that constrain urban growth and create incentives for farming and forest enterprises to preserve and enhance habitat can protect ecosystem resilience and services.

  12. Preliminary assessment of potential CDM early start projects in Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyers, S.; Sathaye, J.; Lehman, B.; Schumacher, K.; van Vliet, O.; Moreira, J.R.

    2000-11-01

    The Brazil/US Aspen Global Forum on Climate Change Policies and Programs has facilitated a dialogue between key Brazil and US public and private sector leaders on the subject of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). With support from the US government, a cooperative effort between Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the University of Sao Paulo conducted an assessment of a number of projects put forth by Brazilian sponsors. Initially, we gathered information and conducted a screening assessment for ten projects in the energy sector and six projects in the forestry sector. Some of the projects appeared to offer greater potential to be attractive for CDM, or had better information available. We then conducted a more detailed assessment of 12 of these projects, and two other projects that were submitted after the initial screening. An important goal was to assess the potential impact of Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) on the financial performance of projects. With the exception of the two forestry-based fuel displacement projects, the impact of CERs on the internal rate of return (IRR) is fairly small. This is true for both the projects that displace grid electricity and those that displace local (diesel-based) electricity production. The relative effect of CERs is greater for projects whose IRR without CERs is low. CERs have a substantial effect on the IRR of the two short-rotation forestry energy substitution projects. One reason is that the biofuel displaces coke and oil, both of which are carbon-intensive. Another factor is that the product of these projects (charcoal and woodfuel, respectively) is relatively low value, so the revenue from carbon credits has a strong relative impact. CERs also have a substantial effect on the NPV of the carbon sequestration projects. Financial and other barriers pose a challenge for implementation of most of the projects. In most cases, the sponsor lacks sufficient capital, and loans are available only at high interest

  13. Assessing Potential Additional PFAS Retention Processes in the Subsurface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brusseau, M. L.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the transport and fate of per- and poly-fluorinated alkyl substances (PFASs) in the subsurface is critical for accurate risk assessments and design of effective remedial actions. Current conceptual and mathematical models are based on an assumption that solid-phase adsorption is the sole source of retention for PFASs. However, additional retention processes may be relevant for PFAS compounds in vadose-zone systems and in source zones that contain trapped immiscible organic liquids. These include adsorption at the air-water interface, partitioning to the soil atmosphere, adsorption at the NAPL-water interface, and absorption by NAPL. A multi-process retention model is proposed to account for these potential additional sources of PFAS retardation. An initial assessment of the relative magnitudes and significance of these retention processes was conducted for three representative PFASs, perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS), and 8:2 fluorotelomer alcohol (FTOH). Data collected from the literature were used to determine measured or estimated values for the relevant distribution coefficients, which were in turn used to calculate retardation factors for a representative porous medium. Adsorption at the air-water interface was shown to be a primary source of retention for PFOA and PFOS, contributing approximately 80% of total retardation. Adsorption to NAPL-water interfaces and absorption by bulk NAPL were also shown to be significant sources of retention for PFOS and PFOA. The latter process was the predominant source of retention for 8:2 FTOH, contributing 98% of total retardation. These results indicate that we may anticipate significant retention of PFASs by these additional processes. In such cases, retardation of PFASs in source areas may be significantly greater than what is typically estimated based on the standard assumption of solid-phase adsorption as the sole retention mechanism. This has significant ramifications for

  14. Constraining dark matter annihilation with the isotropic γ-ray background: Updated limits and future potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bringmann, Torsten; Calore, Francesca; Di Mauro, Mattia; Donato, Fiorenza

    2014-01-01

    The nature of the isotropic γ-ray background (IGRB) measured by the Large Area Telescope (LAT) on the Fermi γ-ray space telescope (Fermi) remains partially unexplained. Non-negligible contributions may originate from extragalactic populations of unresolved sources such as blazars, star-forming galaxies or galactic millisecond pulsars. A recent prediction of the diffuse γ-ray emission from active galactic nuclei (AGN) with a large viewing angle with respect to the line of sight has demonstrated that this faint but numerous population is also expected to contribute significantly to the total IGRB intensity. A more exotic contribution to the IGRB invokes the pair annihilation of dark matter (DM) weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) into γ rays. In this work, we evaluate the room left for galactic DM at high latitudes (>10∘) by including photons from both prompt emission and inverse Compton scattering, emphasizing the impact of the newly discovered contribution from misaligned AGN (MAGN) for such an analysis. Summing up all significant galactic and extragalactic components of the IGRB, we find that an improved understanding of the associated astrophysical uncertainties is still mandatory to put stringent bounds on thermally produced DM. On the other hand, we also demonstrate that the IGRB has the potential to be one of the most competitive future ways to test the DM WIMP hypothesis, once the present uncertainties are even slightly reduced. In fact, if MAGN contribute even at 90% of the maximal level consistent with our current understanding, thermally produced WIMPs would be severely constrained as DM candidates for masses up to several TeV.

  15. Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

    2015-01-01

    Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global

  16. Evaluating Cloud and Precipitation Processes in Numerical Models using Current and Potential Future Satellite Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Heever, S. C.; Tao, W. K.; Skofronick Jackson, G.; Tanelli, S.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Petersen, W. A.; Kummerow, C. D.

    2015-12-01

    Cloud, aerosol and precipitation processes play a fundamental role in the water and energy cycle. It is critical to accurately represent these microphysical processes in numerical models if we are to better predict cloud and precipitation properties on weather through climate timescales. Much has been learned about cloud properties and precipitation characteristics from NASA satellite missions such as TRMM, CloudSat, and more recently GPM. Furthermore, data from these missions have been successfully utilized in evaluating the microphysical schemes in cloud-resolving models (CRMs) and global models. However, there are still many uncertainties associated with these microphysics schemes. These uncertainties can be attributed, at least in part, to the fact that microphysical processes cannot be directly observed or measured, but instead have to be inferred from those cloud properties that can be measured. Evaluation of microphysical parameterizations are becoming increasingly important as enhanced computational capabilities are facilitating the use of more sophisticated schemes in CRMs, and as future global models are being run on what has traditionally been regarded as cloud-resolving scales using CRM microphysical schemes. In this talk we will demonstrate how TRMM, CloudSat and GPM data have been used to evaluate different aspects of current CRM microphysical schemes, providing examples of where these approaches have been successful. We will also highlight CRM microphysical processes that have not been well evaluated and suggest approaches for addressing such issues. Finally, we will introduce a potential NASA satellite mission, the Cloud and Precipitation Processes Mission (CAPPM), which would facilitate the development and evaluation of different microphysical-dynamical feedbacks in numerical models.

  17. Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France

    OpenAIRE

    Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J. J.; Pag?, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A.

    2016-01-01

    Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by takin...

  18. ASSESSMENT OF STUDENTS’ PROFESSIONAL COMPETENCIES – THE FUTURE TEACHERS OF MATHEMATICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariya B. Shashkina

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the investigation is to describe the authors’ approach to the assessment of the professional competence of the future teacher of mathematics.Methods. The methods involve comparative analysis of the Professional Standard of the teacher and the Federal State Educational Standards in teacher education, as well as the method of predictive analysis of modern educational situation.Results. Qualimetric approach to the structuring of the professional competencies of students is described; it allows concretizing the assessment object, to select the criteria and levels of its formedness, to trace the dynamics of development in the medium of profile preparation of a bachelor. The methodology of assessment a professional-profile competence of the future mathematics teachers is proposed; examples of the competence-assessment tools are provided.Scientific novelty. The study gives a detailed analysis of developing the innovative approach to competencies assessment as metasubject learning outcomes.Practical significance. The proposed method of competencies assessment can be used in the mathematical preparation of the future mathematics teacher, and can serve as a basis for monitoring the professional competencies of students.

  19. The quantification of environmental indicators for sustainability assessment of future electricity supply options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simons, A.; Bauer, Ch.; Heck, T.

    2011-02-01

    Within the project NEEDS (New Energy Externalities Development for Sustainability) a range of criteria and indicators were defined according to the widely recognised 'three pillar' interpretation of sustainable development in order to assess future electricity generating technologies including their associated fuel cycles. The basic characteristics of the 26 technologies were defined as being appropriate in 2050 according to 'realistic/optimistic' development scenarios. The potential environmental impacts of each technology were assessed by initially determining the various criteria necessary to describe the range of significant impact areas. These criteria were then expressed and measured by one or more quantifiable indicators which were calculated using Life Cycle Inventories established earlier in the project. This report contributed to Research Stream RS2b of the project by quantifying and comparing the results of these indicators for each of the four countries used in the assessment: France, Germany, Switzerland and Italy. The environmental assessment showed that the nuclear technologies cause relatively very low impacts according to most of the indicators. The Generation IV, European Fast Reactor, has significant advantages over the European Pressurised Reactor but the availabilities of the two reactors will be quite different. Whereas the first examples of the EPR are already under construction, the design finalisation of the EFR is not yet complete meaning that the first plant is not expected to be constructed before 2040. An overarching and clear distinction between the fossil fueled technologies was less possible and the application of carbon capture and storage, whilst showing large reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, was shown to be counteracted in a number of other indicators. The integration of solid fuel gasification prior to combustion also showed both benefits and disadvantages. For most indicators, the natural gas combined cycle options

  20. The clean energy future of Saskatchewan. Evaluating the potential for nuclear power in Saskatchewan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harry, I. [SaskPower, Clean Energy Group, Regina, Saskatchewan (Canada)

    2013-07-01

    The clean energy direction of Saskatchewan is very dependent on the vision of the energy future. Saskatchewan has depended strongly on coal as a base load asset and embracing the future will depend on creating multiple pathways. This presentation will explore the pathways and the reasons why they are important.

  1. Potential future risk of cholera due to climate change in northern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Cholera is one of the infectious diseases that remains a major health burden in West-Africa and especially in Nigeria. Several studies have raised concern that climate change may exacerbate the risk of the disease in the future. Projecting the future risk of this disease is essential, especially for regions where the projected ...

  2. Identifying improvement potentials in cement production with life cycle assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boesch, Michael Elias; Hellweg, Stefanie

    2010-12-01

    Cement production is an environmentally relevant process responsible for 5% of total anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and 7% of industrial fuel use. In this study, life cycle assessment is used to evaluate improvement potentials in the cement production process in Europe and the USA. With a current fuel substitution rate of 18% in Europe and 11% in the USA, both regions have a substantial potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and save virgin resources by further increasing the coprocessing of waste fuels. Upgrading production technology would be particularly effective in the USA where many kiln systems with very low energy efficiency are still in operation. Using best available technology and a thermal substitution rate of 50% for fuels, greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced by 9% for Europe and 18% for the USA per tonne of cement. Since clinker production is the dominant pollution producing step in cement production, the substitution of clinker with mineral components such as ground granulated blast furnace slag or fly ash is an efficient measure to reduce the environmental impact. Blended cements exhibit substantially lower environmental footprints than Portland cement, even if the substitutes feature lower grindability and require additional drying and large transport distances. The highest savings in CO(2) emissions and resource consumption are achieved with a combination of measures in clinker production and cement blending.

  3. Threat Assessment of Potential Terrorist Attacks to the Transport Infrastructure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Nowacki

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents threat assessment of potential terrorist attacks to the transport infrastructure. The range of transportation infrastructure has spread and includes railway, inland waterways, road, maritime, air, intermodal transport infrastructure and intelligent transport systems (ITS. ITS service is the provision of an ITS application through a well-defined organisational and operational framework with the aim of contributing to the user safety, efficiency, comfort and/or to facilitate or support transport and travel operations. Terrorism means acts of violence committed by groups that view themselves as victimized by some notable historical wrong. Although these groups have no formal connection with governments, they usually have the financial and moral backing of sympathetic governments. Typically, they stage unexpected attacks on civilian targets, including transport infrastructure, with the aim of sowing fear and confusion. Based on the analyses, transportation infrastructure is potentially threatened with terrorism attacks, especially road and rail infrastructure (about 23 %, and to a smaller degree the maritime and air transport infrastructure (about 2 %. There were 90,3% of incidents involve land transport (74,5% – vehicles, 9,5% – buses, 6,3% - rail covered the 41-year period 1967-2007 in the USA. Legal steps to fight terrorism have been taken on the international level, furthermore, some institutions have been established for this purpose.

  4. Assessing the standard Molybdenum projector augmented wave VASP potentials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mattsson, Ann E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Multi-Scale Science

    2014-07-01

    Density Functional Theory (DFT) based Equation of State (EOS) construction is a prominent part of Sandia’s capabilities to support engineering sciences. This capability is based on augmenting experimental data with information gained from computational investigations, especially in those parts of the phase space where experimental data is hard, dangerous, or expensive to obtain. A key part of the success of the Sandia approach is the fundamental science work supporting the computational capability. Not only does this work enhance the capability to perform highly accurate calculations but it also provides crucial insight into the limitations of the computational tools, providing high confidence in the results even where results cannot be, or have not yet been, validated by experimental data. This report concerns the key ingredient of projector augmented-wave (PAW) potentials for use in pseudo-potential computational codes. Using the tools discussed in SAND2012-7389 we assess the standard Vienna Ab-initio Simulation Package (VASP) PAWs for Molybdenum.

  5. Renewable, ethical? Assessing the energy justice potential of renewable electricity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aparajita Banerjee

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Energy justice is increasingly being used as a framework to conceptualize the impacts of energy decision making in more holistic ways and to consider the social implications in terms of existing ethical values. Similarly, renewable energy technologies are increasingly being promoted for their environmental and social benefits. However, little work has been done to systematically examine the extent to which, in what ways and in what contexts, renewable energy technologies can contribute to achieving energy justice. This paper assesses the potential of renewable electricity technologies to address energy justice in various global contexts via a systematic review of existing studies analyzed in terms of the principles and dimensions of energy justice. Based on publications including peer reviewed academic literature, books, and in some cases reports by government or international organizations, we assess renewable electricity technologies in both grid integrated and off-grid use contexts. We conduct our investigation through the rubric of the affirmative and prohibitive principles of energy justice and in terms of its temporal, geographic, socio-political, economic, and technological dimensions. Renewable electricity technology development has and continue to have different impacts in different social contexts, and by considering the different impacts explicitly across global contexts, including differences between rural and urban contexts, this paper contributes to identifying and understanding how, in what ways, and in what particular conditions and circumstances renewable electricity technologies may correspond with or work to promote energy justice.

  6. Potential of 3D City Models to assess flood vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröter, Kai; Bochow, Mathias; Schüttig, Martin; Nagel, Claus; Ross, Lutz; Kreibich, Heidi

    2016-04-01

    Vulnerability, as the product of exposure and susceptibility, is a key factor of the flood risk equation. Furthermore, the estimation of flood loss is very sensitive to the choice of the vulnerability model. Still, in contrast to elaborate hazard simulations, vulnerability is often considered in a simplified manner concerning the spatial resolution and geo-location of exposed objects as well as the susceptibility of these objects at risk. Usually, area specific potential flood loss is quantified on the level of aggregated land-use classes, and both hazard intensity and resistance characteristics of affected objects are represented in highly simplified terms. We investigate the potential of 3D City Models and spatial features derived from remote sensing data to improve the differentiation of vulnerability in flood risk assessment. 3D City Models are based on CityGML, an application scheme of the Geography Markup Language (GML), which represents the 3D geometry, 3D topology, semantics and appearance of objects on different levels of detail. As such, 3D City Models offer detailed spatial information which is useful to describe the exposure and to characterize the susceptibility of residential buildings at risk. This information is further consolidated with spatial features of the building stock derived from remote sensing data. Using this database a spatially detailed flood vulnerability model is developed by means of data-mining. Empirical flood damage data are used to derive and to validate flood susceptibility models for individual objects. We present first results from a prototype application in the city of Dresden, Germany. The vulnerability modeling based on 3D City Models and remote sensing data is compared i) to the generally accepted good engineering practice based on area specific loss potential and ii) to a highly detailed representation of flood vulnerability based on a building typology using urban structure types. Comparisons are drawn in terms of

  7. Visions about Future: A New Scale Assessing Optimism, Pessimism, and Hope in Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginevra, Maria Cristina; Sgaramella, Teresa Maria; Ferrari, Lea; Nota, Laura; Santilli, Sara; Soresi, Salvatore

    2017-01-01

    This article reports the development and psychometric properties of visions about future (VAF), an instrument assessing hope, optimism, and pessimism. Three different studies involving Italian adolescents were conducted. With the first study 22 items were developed and the factor structure was verified. The second study, involving a second sample…

  8. Intellectual Assessment of Children and Youth in Japan: Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishikuma, Toshinori; Matsuda, Osamu; Fujita, Kazuhiro; Ueno, Kazuhiko

    2016-01-01

    This article briefly reviews the history of intellectual assessment with children and youth in Japan, as well as current practices and future directions. The history of intelligence test use in Japan began in the early 20th century. Since the 21st century, three major intelligence tests, namely, the Wechsler Intelligence Scales, the Kaufman…

  9. Future Directions in Assessment: Influences of Standards and Implications for Language Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Troy L.; Malone, Margaret E.; Winke, Paula

    2018-01-01

    As "Foreign Language Annals" concludes its 50th anniversary, it is fitting to review the past and peer into the future of standards-based education and assessment. Standards are a common yardstick used by educators and researchers as a powerful framework for conceptualizing teaching and measuring learner success. The impact of standards…

  10. Impact assessment of the carbon reduction strategy for transport, low carbon transport : a greener future

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-07-01

    This is an impact assessment for the Carbon Reduction Strategy for Transport (DfT, 2009), Low Carbon Transport: A Greener Future, which is part of the UK Governments wider UK Low Carbon Transition Plan (DECC, 2009), Britains path to ta...

  11. Neural correlates of self-appraisals in the near and distant future: an event-related potential study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yangmei Luo

    Full Text Available To investigate perceptual and neural correlates of future self-appraisals as a function of temporal distance, event-related potentials (ERPs were recorded while participants (11 women, eight men made judgments about the applicability of trait adjectives to their near future selves (i.e., one month from now and their distant future selves (i.e., three years from now. Behavioral results indicated people used fewer positive adjectives, more negative adjectives, recalled more specific events coming to mind and felt more psychologically connected to the near future self than the distant future self. Electrophysiological results demonstrated that negative trait adjectives elicited more positive ERP deflections than did positive trait adjectives in the interval between 550 and 800 ms (late positive component within the near future self condition. However, within the same interval, there were no significant differences between negative and positive traits adjectives in the distant future self condition. The results suggest that negative emotional processing in future self-appraisals is modulated by temporal distance, consistent with predictions of construal level theory.

  12. Assessment of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over Himalayan region for future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P.

    2018-04-01

    Precipitation is one of the important climatic indicators in the global climate system. Probable changes in monsoonal (June, July, August and September; hereafter JJAS) mean precipitation in the Himalayan region for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways or RCPs) and two future time slices (near and far) are estimated from a set of regional climate simulations performed under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) project. For each of the CORDEX-SA simulations and their ensemble, projections of near future (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099) precipitation climatology with respect to corresponding present climate (1970-2005) over Himalayan region are presented. The variability existing over each of the future time slices is compared with the present climate variability to determine the future changes in inter annual fluctuations of monsoonal mean precipitation. The long-term (1970-2099) trend (mm/day/year) of monsoonal mean precipitation spatially distributed as well as averaged over Himalayan region is analyzed to detect any change across twenty-first century as well as to assess model uncertainty in simulating the precipitation changes over this period. The altitudinal distribution of difference in trend of future precipitation from present climate existing over each of the time slices is also studied to understand any elevation dependency of change in precipitation pattern. Except for a part of the Hindu-Kush area in western Himalayan region which shows drier condition, the CORDEX-SA experiments project in general wetter/drier conditions in near future for western/eastern Himalayan region, a scenario which gets further intensified in far future. Although, a gradually increasing precipitation trend is seen throughout the twenty-first century in carbon intensive scenarios, the distribution of trend with elevation presents a very complex picture with lower elevations

  13. Assessment of Rainfall-induced Landslide Potential and Spatial Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yie-Ruey; Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chen, Jing-Wen; Chiang, Jie-Lun; Hsieh, Shun-Chieh; Chue, Yung-Sheng

    2016-04-01

    Recently, due to the global climate change, most of the time the rainfall in Taiwan is of short duration but with high intensity. Due to Taiwan's steep terrain, rainfall-induced landslides often occur and lead to human causalities and properties loss. Taiwan's government has invested huge reconstruction funds to the affected areas. However, after rehabilitation they still face the risk of secondary sediment disasters. Therefore, this study assesses rainfall-induced (secondary) landslide potential and spatial distribution in watershed of Southern Taiwan under extreme climate change. The study areas in this research are Baolai and Jianshan villages in the watershed of the Laonongxi River Basin in the Southern Taiwan. This study focused on the 3 years after Typhoon Morakot (2009 to 2011). During this period, the study area experienced six heavy rainfall events including five typhoons and one heavy rainfall. The genetic adaptive neural network, texture analysis and GIS were implemented in the analysis techniques for the interpretation of satellite images and to obtain surface information and hazard log data and to analyze land use change. A multivariate hazards evaluation method was applied to quantitatively analyze the weights of various natural environmental and slope development hazard factors. Furthermore, this study established a slope landslide potential assessment model and depicted a slope landslide potential diagram by using the GIS platform. The interaction between (secondary) landslide mechanism, scale, and location was analyzed using association analysis of landslide historical data and regional environmental characteristics. The results of image classification before and after six heavy rainfall events show that the values of coefficient of agreement are at medium-high level. By multivariate hazards evaluation method, geology and the effective accumulative rainfall (EAR) are the most important factors. Slope, distance from fault, aspect, land disturbance

  14. Alluvial diamond resource potential and production capacity assessment of Mali

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirico, Peter G.; Barthelemy, Francis; Kone, Fatiaga

    2010-01-01

    In May of 2000, a meeting was convened in Kimberley, South Africa, and attended by representatives of the diamond industry and leaders of African governments to develop a certification process intended to assure that rough, exported diamonds were free of conflictual concerns. This meeting was supported later in 2000 by the United Nations in a resolution adopted by the General Assembly. By 2002, the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme (KPCS) was ratified and signed by diamond-producing and diamond-importing countries. Over 70 countries were included as members of the KPCS at the end of 2007. To prevent trade in "conflict diamonds" while protecting legitimate trade, the KPCS requires that each country set up an internal system of controls to prevent conflict diamonds from entering any imported or exported shipments of rough diamonds. Every diamond or diamond shipment must be accompanied by a Kimberley Process (KP) certificate and be contained in tamper-proof packaging. The objective of this study was (1) to assess the naturally occurring endowment of diamonds in Mali (potential resources) based on geological evidence, previous studies, and recent field data and (2) to assess the diamond-production capacity and measure the intensity of mining activity. Several possible methods can be used to estimate the potential diamond resource. However, because there is generally a lack of sufficient and consistent data recording all diamond mining in Mali and because time to conduct fieldwork and accessibility to the diamond mining areas are limited, four different methodologies were used: the cylindrical calculation of the primary kimberlitic deposits, the surface area methodology, the volume and grade approach, and the content per kilometer approach. Approximately 700,000 carats are estimated to be in the alluvial deposits of the Kenieba region, with 540,000 carats calculated to lie within the concentration grade deposits. Additionally, 580,000 carats are estimated to have

  15. Using Groundwater physiochemical properties for assessing potential earthquake precursor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inbar, Nimrod; Reuveni, Yuval; Anker, Yaakov; Guttman, Joseph

    2017-04-01

    Worldwide studies reports pre-seismic, co-seismic and post-seismic reaction of groundwater to earthquakes. The unique hydrological and geological situation in Israel resulted in relatively deep water wells which are located close to seismically active tectonic plate boundary. Moreover, the Israeli experience show that anomalies may occurs 60-90 minutes prior to the seismic event (Guttman et al., 2005; Anker et al., 2016). Here, we try to assess the possible connection between changes in physiochemical parameters of groundwater and earthquakes along the Dead Sea Transform (DST) region. A designated network of monitoring stations was installed in MEKOROT abandoned deep water wells, continuously measuring water table, conductivity and temperature at a sampling rate of 1 minute. Preliminary analysis compares changes in the measured parameters with rain events, tidal effects and earthquake occurrences of all measured magnitudes (>2.5Md) at monitoring area surroundings. The acquired data set over one year recorded simultaneous abrupt changes in several wells which seems disconnected from standard hydrological occurrences such as precipitation, abstraction or tidal effects. At this stage, our research aims to determine and rationalize a baseline for "normal response" of the measured parameters to external occurrences while isolating those cases in which "deviations" from that base line is recorded. We apply several analysis techniques both in time and frequency domain with the measured signal as well as statistical analysis of several measured earthquake parameters, which indicate potential correlations between earthquakes occurrences and the measured signal. We show that at least in one seismic event (5.1 Md) a potential precursor may have been recorded. Reference: Anker, Y., N. Inbar, A. Y. Dror, Y. Reuveni, J. Guttman, A. Flexer, (2016). Groundwater response to ground movements, as a tool for earthquakes monitoring and a possible precursor. 8th International Conference

  16. Assessment of groundwater potential in Ankobra River Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nyarkoh, Charles Prince

    2011-08-01

    Ankobra river basin is endowed with many rich natural resources. The mining activities in the basin and the proposed hydropower generation on the Ankobra river as well as oil discovery in the Western Region would lead to the establishing of new industries in the basin. These would certainly lead to potential population growth. As a result of these developments, there would be stress on surface water resources and therefore there would be demand for ground water. A research was carried out to assess groundwater supply. Hydrogeological data was used to evaluate the ground water storage in the basement complex, regolith. The relevant aquifer characteristics/parameters (extent of the study area, thickness of the ground water zone in the regolith, the porosity and specific capacity of the aquifer zones) were used to compute total groundwater storage and recoverable storage. The groundwater contribution to stream flow was computed using mean monthly discharge data from the filled data and hydrograph drawn. The base flow was then determined from the hydrograph separation using the straight line method. The groundwater potential in the Ankobra basin is 45.82*10 9 m 3 while the recoverable groundwater storage is 29.39*10 9 m 3 . The base flow computed was 13.75m 3/ s. Investigations into groundwater chemistry with particular references to physico-chemical parameters (quality) was analysed. The constituents fall within the acceptable limits of the Ghana Standard Board (GSB) for drinking water standard and are satisfactory for human consumption. However, Tamso, Wantenem, Gyaman, Beyim communities exceeded the GSB'S recommended values of PH (6.5-8.5) and chloride ( 250 mg/I) respectively for drinking water standard.(author)

  17. Economic potential of fuel recycling options: A lifecycle cost analysis of future nuclear system transition in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, Ruxing; Choi, Sungyeol; Il Ko, Won; Kim, Sungki

    2017-01-01

    In today's profit-driven market, how best to pursue advanced nuclear fuel cycle technologies while maintaining the cost competitiveness of nuclear electricity is of crucial importance to determine the implementation of spent fuel reprocessing and recycling in China. In this study, a comprehensive techno-economic analysis is undertaken to evaluate the economic feasibility of ongoing national projects and the technical compatibility with China's future fuel cycle transition. We investigated the dynamic impacts of technical and economic uncertainties in the lifecycle of a nuclear system. The electricity generation costs associated with four potential fuel cycle transition scenarios were simulated by probabilistic and deterministic approaches and then compared in detail. The results showed that the total cost of a once-through system is lowest compared those of other advanced systems involving reprocessing and recycling. However, thanks to the consequential uncertainties caused by the further progress toward technology maturity, the economic potential of fuel recycling options was proven through a probabilistic uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, it is recommended that a compulsory executive of closed fuel cycle policy would pose some investment risk in the near term, though the execution of a series of R&D initiatives with a flexible roadmap would be valuable in the long run. - Highlights: • Real-time economic performance of the four scenarios of China's nuclear fuel cycle system transition until 2100. • Systematic assessments of techno-economic feasibility for ongoing national reprocessing projects. • Investigation the cost impact on nuclear electricity generation caused by uncertainties through probabilistic analysis. • Recommendation for sustainable implementation of fuel cycle R&D initiative ingrate with flexible roadmap in the long run.

  18. Evaluation of Stochastic Rainfall Models in Capturing Climate Variability for Future Drought and Flood Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, A. F. M. K.; Lockart, N.; Willgoose, G. R.; Kuczera, G. A.; Kiem, A.; Nadeeka, P. M.

    2016-12-01

    One of the key objectives of stochastic rainfall modelling is to capture the full variability of climate system for future drought and flood risk assessment. However, it is not clear how well these models can capture the future climate variability when they are calibrated to Global/Regional Climate Model data (GCM/RCM) as these datasets are usually available for very short future period/s (e.g. 20 years). This study has assessed the ability of two stochastic daily rainfall models to capture climate variability by calibrating them to a dynamically downscaled RCM dataset in an east Australian catchment for 1990-2010, 2020-2040, and 2060-2080 epochs. The two stochastic models are: (1) a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model, which we developed in a previous study and (2) a semi-parametric MC model developed by Mehrotra and Sharma (2007). Our hierarchical model uses stochastic parameters of MC and Gamma distribution, while the semi-parametric model uses a modified MC process with memory of past periods and kernel density estimation. This study has generated multiple realizations of rainfall series by using parameters of each model calibrated to the RCM dataset for each epoch. The generated rainfall series are used to generate synthetic streamflow by using a SimHyd hydrology model. Assessing the synthetic rainfall and streamflow series, this study has found that both stochastic models can incorporate a range of variability in rainfall as well as streamflow generation for both current and future periods. However, the hierarchical model tends to overestimate the multiyear variability of wet spell lengths (therefore, is less likely to simulate long periods of drought and flood), while the semi-parametric model tends to overestimate the mean annual rainfall depths and streamflow volumes (hence, simulated droughts are likely to be less severe). Sensitivity of these limitations of both stochastic models in terms of future drought and flood risk assessment will be discussed.

  19. Assessment of visual disability using visual evoked potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, Jihoon; Oh, Seiyul; Kyung, Sungeun

    2012-08-06

    The purpose of this study is to validate the use of visual evoked potential (VEP) to objectively quantify visual acuity in normal and amblyopic patients, and determine if it is possible to predict visual acuity in disability assessment to register visual pathway lesions. A retrospective chart review was conducted of patients diagnosed with normal vision, unilateral amblyopia, optic neuritis, and visual disability who visited the university medical center for registration from March 2007 to October 2009. The study included 20 normal subjects (20 right eyes: 10 females, 10 males, ages 9-42 years), 18 unilateral amblyopic patients (18 amblyopic eyes, ages 19-36 years), 19 optic neuritis patients (19 eyes: ages 9-71 years), and 10 patients with visual disability having visual pathway lesions. Amplitude and latencies were analyzed and correlations with visual acuity (logMAR) were derived from 20 normal and 18 amblyopic subjects. Correlation of VEP amplitude and visual acuity (logMAR) of 19 optic neuritis patients confirmed relationships between visual acuity and amplitude. We calculated the objective visual acuity (logMAR) of 16 eyes from 10 patients to diagnose the presence or absence of visual disability using relations derived from 20 normal and 18 amblyopic eyes. Linear regression analyses between amplitude of pattern visual evoked potentials and visual acuity (logMAR) of 38 eyes from normal (right eyes) and amblyopic (amblyopic eyes) subjects were significant [y = -0.072x + 1.22, x: VEP amplitude, y: visual acuity (logMAR)]. There were no significant differences between visual acuity prediction values, which substituted amplitude values of 19 eyes with optic neuritis into function. We calculated the objective visual acuity of 16 eyes of 10 patients to diagnose the presence or absence of visual disability using relations of y = -0.072x + 1.22 (-0.072). This resulted in a prediction reference of visual acuity associated with malingering vs. real

  20. Performance assessment for future low-level waste disposal facilities at ORNL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, D.W.; Kocher, D.C.

    1989-01-01

    This paper discusses the strategy for waste management on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) and the approach to preparing future performance assessments that has evolved from previous performance assessment studies of low-level radioactive waste disposal on the ORR. The strategy for waste management is based on the concept that waste classification should be determined by performance assessment other than the sources of waste. This dose-based strategy for waste classification and management places special importance on the preparation and interpretation of waste disposal performance assessments for selecting appropriate disposal technologies and developing waste acceptance criteria. Additionally, the challenges to be overcome in the preparation of performance assessments are discussed. 7 refs

  1. Methodology for assessing thioarsenic formation potential in sulfidic landfill environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jianye; Kim, Hwidong; Townsend, Timothy

    2014-07-01

    Arsenic leaching and speciation in landfills, especially those with arsenic bearing waste and drywall disposal (such as construction and demolition (C&D) debris landfills), may be affected by high levels of sulfide through the formation of thioarsenic anions. A methodology using ion chromatography (IC) with a conductivity detector was developed for the assessment of thioarsenic formation potential in sulfidic landfill environments. Monothioarsenate (H2AsSO3(-)) and dithioarsenate (H2AsS2O2(-)) were confirmed in the IC fractions of thioarsenate synthesis mixture, consistent with previous literature results. However, the observation of AsSx(-) (x=5-8) in the supposed trithioarsenate (H2AsS3O(-)) and tetrathioarsenate (H2AsS4(-)) IC fractions suggested the presence of new arsenic polysulfide complexes. All thioarsenate anions, particularly trithioarsenate and tetrathioarsenate, were unstable upon air exposure. The method developed for thioarsenate analysis was validated and successfully used to analyze several landfill leachate samples. Thioarsenate anions were detected in the leachate of all of the C&D debris landfills tested, which accounted for approximately 8.5% of the total aqueous As in the leachate. Compared to arsenite or arsenate, thioarsenates have been reported in literature to have lower adsorption on iron oxide minerals. The presence of thioarsenates in C&D debris landfill leachate poses new concerns when evaluating the impact of arsenic mobilization in such environments. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Biomarkers to assess potential developmental immunotoxicity in children

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luster, Michael I.; Johnson, Victor J.; Yucesoy, Berran; Simeonova, Petia P.

    2005-01-01

    Clinical tests are readily available for assessing severe loss of immune function in children with diseases such as AIDS or primary immunodeficiency. However tests that could reliably identify subtle immune changes, as might be expected to result from exposure to developmental immunotoxic agents, are not readily available. A number of tests are described which we believe have potential applicability for epidemiological studies involving developmental immunotoxicity. Several of the tests, such as T cell receptor rearrangement excision circles (TRECs) and cytokine measurements, while highly relevant from a biological standpoint, may be precluded from use at the current time, for either technical issues or insufficient validation. Immunophenotyping and measurement of serum immunoglobulin levels, on the other hand, are well validated. Yet they may require extraordinary care in experimental design and technical performance in order to obtain data that would consistently detect subtle changes, as these tests are not generally considered highly sensitive. Quantification of the immune response to childhood vaccine, while up to the present used sparingly, may represent an excellent indicator for developmental immunotoxicity when conducted under appropriate conditions

  3. Assessing atmospheric bias correction for dynamical consistency using potential vorticity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rocheta, Eytan; Sharma, Ashish; Evans, Jason P

    2014-01-01

    Correcting biases in atmospheric variables prior to impact studies or dynamical downscaling can lead to new biases as dynamical consistency between the ‘corrected’ fields is not maintained. Use of these bias corrected fields for subsequent impact studies and dynamical downscaling provides input conditions that do not appropriately represent intervariable relationships in atmospheric fields. Here we investigate the consequences of the lack of dynamical consistency in bias correction using a measure of model consistency—the potential vorticity (PV). This paper presents an assessment of the biases present in PV using two alternative correction techniques—an approach where bias correction is performed individually on each atmospheric variable, thereby ignoring the physical relationships that exists between the multiple variables that are corrected, and a second approach where bias correction is performed directly on the PV field, thereby keeping the system dynamically coherent throughout the correction process. In this paper we show that bias correcting variables independently results in increased errors above the tropopause in the mean and standard deviation of the PV field, which are improved when using the alternative proposed. Furthermore, patterns of spatial variability are improved over nearly all vertical levels when applying the alternative approach. Results point to a need for a dynamically consistent atmospheric bias correction technique which results in fields that can be used as dynamically consistent lateral boundaries in follow-up downscaling applications. (letter)

  4. Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks under future climate and land cover changes in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yigini, Yusuf; Panagos, Panos

    2016-07-01

    Soil organic carbon plays an important role in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems, variations in soil organic carbon stocks are very important for the ecosystem. In this study, a geostatistical model was used for predicting current and future soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe. The first phase of the study predicts current soil organic carbon content by using stepwise multiple linear regression and ordinary kriging and the second phase of the study projects the soil organic carbon to the near future (2050) by using a set of environmental predictors. We demonstrate here an approach to predict present and future soil organic carbon stocks by using climate, land cover, terrain and soil data and their projections. The covariates were selected for their role in the carbon cycle and their availability for the future model. The regression-kriging as a base model is predicting current SOC stocks in Europe by using a set of covariates and dense SOC measurements coming from LUCAS Soil Database. The base model delivers coefficients for each of the covariates to the future model. The overall model produced soil organic carbon maps which reflect the present and the future predictions (2050) based on climate and land cover projections. The data of the present climate conditions (long-term average (1950-2000)) and the future projections for 2050 were obtained from WorldClim data portal. The future climate projections are the recent climate projections mentioned in the Fifth Assessment IPCC report. These projections were extracted from the global climate models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest an overall increase in SOC stocks by 2050 in Europe (EU26) under all climate and land cover scenarios, but the extent of the increase varies between the climate model and emissions scenarios. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. High temporal discounters overvalue immediate rewards rather than undervalue future rewards: an event-related brain potential study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherniawsky, Avital S; Holroyd, Clay B

    2013-03-01

    Impulsivity is characterized in part by heightened sensitivity to immediate relative to future rewards. Although previous research has suggested that "high discounters" in intertemporal choice tasks tend to prefer immediate over future rewards because they devalue the latter, it remains possible that they instead overvalue immediate rewards. To investigate this question, we recorded the reward positivity, a component of the event-related brain potential (ERP) associated with reward processing, with participants engaged in a task in which they received both immediate and future rewards and nonrewards. The participants also completed a temporal discounting task without ERP recording. We found that immediate but not future rewards elicited the reward positivity. High discounters also produced larger reward positivities to immediate rewards than did low discounters, indicating that high discounters relatively overvalued immediate rewards. These findings suggest that high discounters may be more motivated than low discounters to work for monetary rewards, irrespective of the time of arrival of the incentives.

  6. Future integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment considering land use / land cover and climate change using DRASTIC and SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, W.; Engel, B.; Chaubey, I.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change causes significant changes to temperature regimes and precipitation patterns across the world. Such alterations in climate pose serious risks for not only inland freshwater ecosystems but also groundwater systems, and may adversely affect numerous critical services they provide to humans. All groundwater results from precipitation, and precipitation is affected by climate change. Climate change is also influenced by land use / land cover (LULC) change and vice versa. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, climate change is caused by global warming which is generated by the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere. LULC change is a major driving factor causing an increase in GHG emissions. LULC change data (years 2006-2100) will be produced by the Land Transformation Model (LTM) which simulates spatial patterns of LULC change over time. MIROC5 (years 2006-2100) will be obtained considering GCMs and ensemble characteristics such as resolution and trend of temperature and precipitation which is a consistency check with observed data from local weather stations and historical data from GCMs output data. Thus, MIROC5 will be used to account for future climate change scenarios and relationship between future climate change and alteration of groundwater quality in this study. For efficient groundwater resources management, integrated aquifer vulnerability assessments (= intrinsic vulnerability + hazard potential assessment) are required. DRASTIC will be used to evaluate intrinsic vulnerability, and aquifer hazard potential will be evaluated by Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) which can simulate pollution potential from surface and transport properties of contaminants. Thus, for effective integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment for LULC and climate change in the Midwestern United States, future projected LULC and climate data from the LTM and GCMs will be incorporated with DRASTIC and SWAT. It is

  7. Mitigation potential of horizontal ground coupled heat pumps for current and future climatic conditions: UK environmental modelling and monitoring studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    García González, Raquel; Verhoef, Anne; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Gan, Guohui; Wu, Yupeng; Hughes, Andrew; Mansour, Majdi; Blyth, Eleanor; Finch, Jon; Main, Bruce

    2010-05-01

    model predictions of soil moisture content and soil temperature with measurements at different GCHP locations over the UK. The combined effect of environment dynamics and horizontal GCHP technical properties on long-term GCHP performance will be assessed using a detailed land surface model (JULES: Joint UK Land Environment Simulator, Meteorological Office, UK) with additional equations embedded describing the interaction between GCHP heat exchangers and the surrounding soil. However, a number of key soil physical processes are currently not incorporated in JULES, such as groundwater flow, which, especially in lowland areas, can have an important effect on the heat flow between soil and HE. Furthermore, the interaction between HE and soil may also cause soil vapour and moisture fluxes. These will affect soil thermal conductivity and hence heat flow between the HE and the surrounding soil, which will in turn influence system performance. The project will address these issues. We propose to drive an improved version of JULES (with equations to simulate GCHP exchange embedded), with long-term gridded (1 km) atmospheric, soil and vegetation data (reflecting current and future environmental conditions) to reliably assess the mitigation potential of GCHPs over the entire domain of the UK, where uptake of GCHPs has been low traditionally. In this way we can identify areas that are most suitable for the installation of GCHPs. Only then recommendations can be made to local and regional governments, for example, on how to improve the mitigation potential in less suitable areas by adjusting GCHP configurations or design.

  8. Characterizing the Leaching Behavior of Coal Combustion Residues using the Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF) to Inform Future Management Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abstract for presentation on Characterizing the Leaching Behavior of Coal Combustion Residues using the Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF) to Inform Future Management Decisions. The abstract is attached.

  9. Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gårdmark, Anna; Lindegren, Martin; Neuenfeldt, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    ) as an example. The core of the approach is to expose an ensemble of models with different ecological assumptions to climate forcing, using multiple realizations of each climate scenario. We simulated the long-term response of cod to future fishing and climate change in seven ecological models ranging from...... model assumptions from the statistical uncertainty of future climate, and (3) identified results common for the whole model ensemble. Species interactions greatly influenced the simulated response of cod to fishing and climate, as well as the degree to which the statistical uncertainty of climate...... in all models, intense fishing prevented recovery, and climate change further decreased the cod population. Our study demonstrates how the biological ensemble modeling approach makes it possible to evaluate the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in future species responses, as well...

  10. Future scenario development within life cycle assessment of waste management systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bisinella, Valentina

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is an acknowledged tool for quantifying the sustainability of waste management solutions. However, the use of LCA for decision-making is hindered by the strong dependency of the LCA results on the assumptions regarding the future conditions in which the waste management...... solutions will operate. Future scenario methods from the management engineering field may provide valid approaches for formulating consistent assumptions on future conditions for the waste management system modelled with LCA. However, the standardized LCA procedure currently does not offer much guidance...... field. The quantitative modelling implications were tested within real-scale LCA models focusing on the management of residual waste in Denmark. In a wide range of scenarios, this thesis addressed the influence on the LCA model results of realistic technology and waste composition uncertainties, as well...

  11. Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duinker, Peter N.; Greig, Lorne A.

    2007-01-01

    Scenarios and scenario analysis have become popular approaches in organizational planning and participatory exercises in pursuit of sustainable development. However, they are little used, at least in any formal way, in environmental impact assessment (EIA). This is puzzling because EIA is a process specifically dedicated to exploring options for more-sustainable (i.e., less environmentally damaging) futures. In this paper, we review the state of the art associated with scenarios and scenario analysis, and describe two areas where scenario analysis could be particularly helpful in EIA: (a) in defining future developments for cumulative effects assessment; and (b) in considering the influence of contextual change - e.g. climate change - on impact forecasts for specific projects. We conclude by encouraging EIA practitioners to learn about the promise of scenario-based analysis and implement scenario-based methods so that EIA can become more effective in fostering sustainable development

  12. The potential role of waste biomass in the future urban electricity system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiang, Yu; Werf, van der Edwin; Ierland, van Ekko C.; Keesman, Karel J.

    2017-01-01

    The share of intermittent renewable electricity (IRE) in the future urban electricity system is expected to increase significantly. Sufficient back-up capacity is needed in the period when IRE output is low. Bioenergy is both dispatchable and carbon-neutral, and can hence be a promising option to

  13. Atlas of current and potential future distributions of common trees of the eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Betsy J. Hale; Elaine Kennedy Sutherland

    1999-01-01

    This atlas documents the current and possible future distribution of 80 common tree species in the Eastern United States and gives detailed information on environmental characteristics defining these distributions. Also included are outlines of life history characteristics and summary statistics for these species. Much of the data are derived from Forest Inventory and...

  14. Future Land-Use Changes and the Potential for Novelty in Ecosystems of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastian Martinuzzi; Gregorio I. Gavier-Pizarro; Ariel E. Lugo; Volker C. Radeloff

    2015-01-01

    Rapid global changes due to changing land use, climate, and non-native species are altering environmental conditions, resulting in more novel communities with unprecedented species combinations. Understanding how future anthropogenic changes may affect novelty in ecosystems is important to advance environmental management and ecological research in the Anthropocene....

  15. Potential future impact of a partially effective HIV vaccine in a southern African setting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Phillips, Andrew N; Cambiano, Valentina; Nakagawa, Fumiyo

    2014-01-01

    of a realistic future implementation scenario in resource limited settings. METHODS: An individual level model of HIV transmission, progression and the effect of antiretroviral therapy was used to predict the outcome to 2060 of introduction in 2025 of a partially effective vaccine with various combinations...

  16. The Future Nuclear Arms Control Agenda and Its Potential Implications for the Air Force

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    US AIR FORCE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES USAF ACADEMY, COLORADO INSS OCCASIONAL PAPER AUGUST 2015 70 Dr. Lewis A. Dunn The Future...Implications for the Air Force Dr. Lewis A. Dunn INSS Occasional Paper 70 August 2015 USAF Institute for National Security Studies USAF

  17. Analysis of the Economic Potential for a Mercosur Rice Futures Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waldemar Antonio da Rocha de Souza

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available World rice production reached 488.4 thousand tons, in 2012. Asian countries are the world’s largest rice producers, followed by Latinamerica, particularly Brazil, where rice is a basic food item. In spite of the clear economic benefits bestowed by commodity futures markets, neither Asia nor Mercosur have implemented a regional rice futures market. In sum, we propose to investigate the feasibility of a Brazilian rice futures contract to serve the Mercosur region by estimating Mercosur rice price dynamics and analyze basis risk and hedging effectiveness for rice market agents in the region, in a simulation framework using a hypothetical regional contract price. Sample data and period was non-probabilistic, for accessibility and convenience. Mercosur rice price dynamics expressed Argentina and Uruguay rice prices moving in synchrony. Brazil rice prices were on lower levels. Also, all three pairs of rice price series are cointegrated, with one cointegrating equation. Again, results can be largely attributed to the different price data used, in Brazil was rough rice, while in Uruguay and Argentina milled white rice with 5%. Despite that, there are preliminary evidences that a Mercosur rice futures market could be feasible.

  18. The Potential of Simulated Environments in Teacher Education: Current and Future Possibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieker, Lisa A.; Rodriguez, Jacqueline A.; Lignugaris/Kraft, Benjamin; Hynes, Michael C.; Hughes, Charles E.

    2014-01-01

    The future of virtual environments is evident in many fields but is just emerging in the field of teacher education. In this article, the authors provide a summary of the evolution of simulation in the field of teacher education and three factors that need to be considered as these environments further develop. The authors provide a specific…

  19. Optimal powertrain dimensioning and potential assessment of hybrid electric vehicles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murgovski, Nikolce

    2012-07-01

    Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), compared to conventional vehicles, complement the traditional combustion engine with one, or several electric motors and an energy buffer, typically a battery and/or an ultra capacitor. This gives the vehicle an additional degree of freedom that allows for a more efficient operation, by e.g. recuperating braking energy, or operating the engine at higher efficiency. In order to be cost effective, the HEV may need to include a downsized engine and a carefully selected energy buffer. The optimal size of the powertrain components depends on the powertrain configuration, ability to draw electric energy from the grid, charging infrastructure, drive patterns, varying fuel, electricity and energy buffer prices and on how well adapted is the buffer energy management to driving conditions. This thesis provides two main contributions for optimal dimensioning of HEV powertrains while optimally controlling the energy use of the buffer on prescribed routes. The first contribution is described by a methodology and a tool for potential assessment of HEV powertrains. The tool minimizes the need for interaction from the user by automizing the processes of powertrain simplification and optimization. The HEV powertrain models are simplified by removing unnecessary dynamics in order to speed up computation time and allow Dynamic Programming to be used to optimize the energy management. The tool makes it possible to work with non-transparent models, e.g. models which are compiled, or hidden for intellectual property reasons. The second contribution describes modeling steps to reformulate the powertrain dimensioning and control problem as a convex optimization problem. The method considers quadratic losses for the powertrain components and the resulting problem is a semi definite convex program. The optimization is time efficient with computation time that does not increase exponentially with the number of states. This makes it possible to include more

  20. The Application of Isotope Techniques in Nutrient Assessment and Management in Riverine Systems. Present and Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ito, M.; Newman, B. D. [International Atomic Energy Agency, Isotope Hydrology Section, Vienna (Austria); Hadwen, W. L. [Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith School of Environment, Griffith University - Nathan Campus, Brisbane, Queensland (Australia); Rogers, K. [National Isotope Center, GNS Science, Lower Hutt (New Zealand); Mayer, B. [Department of Geoscience, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta (Canada); Hein, T. [Wasser Cluster Lunz, Interuniversitary Center for Aquatic Research, Lunz-See, and University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Institute of Hydrobiology and Aquatic Ecosystem Management, Vienna (Austria); Stellato, L. [Centre for Isotopic Research on Cultural and Environmental Heritage (CIRCE), Seconda Universita degli Studi di Napoli, Caserta (Italy); Ohte, N. [Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Tokyo, Tokyo (Japan); Mclaughlin, K. [Southern California Coastal Water Research Project, Costa Mesa, California (United States)

    2013-05-15

    A variety of sources contribute to nutrients in rivers and nutrients may subsequently take various pathways and undergo different transformation processes. We first review representative types of isotopes and the roles of isotope techniques that have been or could be used for nutrient assessment and management. We then present technical, financial and logistical matters to be considered in selecting appropriate isotope techniques for nutrient assessment and management. Lastly we propose several approaches on the application of isotope techniques to make more effective the studies and management of nutrients in rivers in the near future. (author)

  1. Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Can

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moren, Lena

    2006-10-01

    This report documents the future human actions (FHA) considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Can. The purpose of this report is to provide an account of: General considerations concerning FHA; The methodology applied in SR-Can to assess FHA; The aspects of FHA that need to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository; and The selection of representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis

  2. Handling of future human actions in the safety assessment SR-Can

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moren, Lena

    2006-10-15

    This report documents the future human actions (FHA) considered in the long-term safety analysis of a KBS-3 repository. The report is one of the supporting documents to the safety assessment SR-Can. The purpose of this report is to provide an account of: General considerations concerning FHA; The methodology applied in SR-Can to assess FHA; The aspects of FHA that need to be considered in the evaluation of their impact on a deep geological repository; and The selection of representative scenarios for illustrative consequence analysis.

  3. Proprioception: where are we now? A commentary on clinical assessment, changes across the life course, functional implications and future interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suetterlin, Karen Joan; Sayer, Avan Aihie

    2014-05-01

    Proprioception, the sense of where one is in space, is essential for effective interaction with the environment. A lack of or reduction in proprioceptive acuity has been directly correlated with falls and with reduced functional independence in older people. Proprioceptive losses have also been shown to negatively correlate with functional recovery post stroke and play a significant role in other conditions such as Parkinson's disease. However, despite its central importance to many geriatric syndromes, the clinical assessment of proprioception has remained remarkably static. We look at approaches to the clinical assessment of proprioception, changes in proprioception across the life course, functional implications of proprioception in health and disease and the potential for targeted interventions in the future such as joint taping, and proprioception-specific rehabilitation and footwear.

  4. Assessing Risk in Costing High-energy Accelerators: from Existing Projects to the Future Linear Collider

    CERN Document Server

    Lebrun, Philippe

    2010-01-01

    High-energy accelerators are large projects funded by public money, developed over the years and constructed via major industrial contracts both in advanced technology and in more conventional domains such as civil engineering and infrastructure, for which they often constitute one-of markets. Assessing their cost, as well as the risk and uncertainty associated with this assessment is therefore an essential part of project preparation and a justified requirement by the funding agencies. Stemming from the experience with large circular colliders at CERN, LEP and LHC, as well as with the Main Injector, the Tevatron Collider Experiments and Accelerator Upgrades, and the NOvA Experiment at Fermilab, we discuss sources of cost variance and derive cost risk assessment methods applicable to the future linear collider, through its two technical approaches for ILC and CLIC. We also address disparities in cost risk assessment imposed by regional differences in regulations, procedures and practices.

  5. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Glacier Hazards Assessment: Application to Predicting the Potential for Glacier Lake Outbursts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furfaro, R.; Kargel, J. S.; Fink, W.; Bishop, M. P.

    2010-12-01

    Glaciers and ice sheets are among the largest unstable parts of the solid Earth. Generally, glaciers are devoid of resources (other than water), are dangerous, are unstable and no infrastructure is normally built directly on their surfaces. Areas down valley from large alpine glaciers are also commonly unstable due to landslide potential of moraines, debris flows, snow avalanches, outburst floods from glacier lakes, and other dynamical alpine processes; yet there exists much development and human occupation of some disaster-prone areas. Satellite remote sensing can be extremely effective in providing cost-effective and time- critical information. Space-based imagery can be used to monitor glacier outlines and their lakes, including processes such as iceberg calving and debris accumulation, as well as changing thicknesses and flow speeds. Such images can also be used to make preliminary identifications of specific hazardous spots and allows preliminary assessment of possible modes of future disaster occurrence. Autonomous assessment of glacier conditions and their potential for hazards would present a major advance and permit systematized analysis of more data than humans can assess. This technical leap will require the design and implementation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms specifically designed to mimic glacier experts’ reasoning. Here, we introduce the theory of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) as an AI tool for predicting and assessing natural hazards in alpine glacier environments. FCM techniques are employed to represent expert knowledge of glaciers physical processes. A cognitive model embedded in a fuzzy logic framework is constructed via the synergistic interaction between glaciologists and AI experts. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed AI methodology as applied to predicting hazards in glacier environments, we designed and implemented a FCM that addresses the challenging problem of autonomously assessing the Glacier Lake Outburst Flow

  6. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faber, Irene R; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T; Faber, Niels R; Oosterveld, Frits G J; Nijhuis-Van der Sanden, Maria W G

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be included in a talent

  7. Prehospital Ultrasound in Trauma: A Review of Current and Potential Future Clinical Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tharwat El Zahran

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Ultrasound (US is an essential tool for evaluating trauma patients in the hospital setting. Many previous in-hospital studies have been extrapolated to out of hospital setting to improve diagnostic accuracy in prehospital and austere environments. This review article presents the role of prehospital US in blunt and penetrating trauma management with emphasis on its current clinical applications, challenges, and future implications of such use.

  8. Risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. Current approaches and future strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Larsen, John Christian; Meyer, Otto A.

    2010-01-01

    The risk assessment of pesticide residues in food is based on toxicological evaluation of the single compounds and no internationally accepted procedure exists for evaluation of cumulative exposure to multiple residues of pesticides in crops, except for a few groups of pesticides sharing a group...... several approaches are available for the risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. However, no single simple approach is available to judge upon potential interactions at the low doses that humans are exposed to from pesticide residues in food. In these cases, PBTK models could be useful as tools...... to assess combined tissue doses and to help predict potential interactions including thresholds for such effects. This would improve the quality of the risk assessment....

  9. Identifying and Mitigating Potential Nutrient and Sediment Hot Spots under a Future Scenario in the Missouri River Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, May [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Zhang, Zhonglong [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for large-scale watershed modeling could be useful for evaluating the quality of the water in regions that are dominated by nonpoint sources in order to identify potential “hot spots” for which mitigating strategies could be further developed. An analysis of water quality under future scenarios in which changes in land use would be made to accommodate increased biofuel production was developed for the Missouri River Basin (MoRB) based on a SWAT model application. The analysis covered major agricultural crops and biofuel feedstock in the MoRB, including pasture land, hay, corn, soybeans, wheat, and switchgrass. The analysis examined, at multiple temporal and spatial scales, how nitrate, organic nitrogen, and total nitrogen; phosphorus, organic phosphorus, inorganic phosphorus, and total phosphorus; suspended sediments; and water flow (water yield) would respond to the shifts in land use that would occur under proposed future scenarios. The analysis was conducted at three geospatial scales: (1) large tributary basin scale (two: Upper MoRB and Lower MoRB); (2) regional watershed scale (seven: Upper Missouri River, Middle Missouri River, Middle Lower Missouri River, Lower Missouri River, Yellowstone River, Platte River, and Kansas River); and (3) eight-digit hydrologic unit (HUC-8) subbasin scale (307 subbasins). Results showed that subbasin-level variations were substantial. Nitrogen loadings decreased across the entire Upper MoRB, and they increased in several subbasins in the Lower MoRB. Most nitrate reductions occurred in lateral flow. Also at the subbasin level, phosphorus in organic, sediment, and soluble forms was reduced by 35%, 45%, and 65%, respectively. Suspended sediments increased in 68% of the subbasins. The water yield decreased in 62% of the subbasins. In the Kansas River watershed, the water quality improved significantly with regard to every nitrogen and phosphorus compound. The improvement was

  10. Critical thinking: assessing the risks to the future security of supply of critical metals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunn, Gus

    2015-04-01

    Increasing world population, the spread of prosperity across the globe and the demands of new technologies have led to a revival of concerns about the availability of raw materials needed by society. Despite scare stories about resource depletion, physical exhaustion of minerals is considered to be unlikely. However, we do need to know which materials might be of concern so that we can develop strategies to secure adequate supplies and to mitigate the effects of supply disruption. This requirement has led to renewed interest in criticality, a term that is generally used to refer to metals and minerals of high economic importance that have a relatively high likelihood of supply disruption. The European Union (EU) developed a quantitative methodology for the assessment of criticality which led to the definition of 14 raw materials as critical to the EU economy (EC, 2010). This has succeeded in raising awareness of potential supply issues and in helping to prioritise requirements for new policies and supporting research. The EU has recently assessed a larger number of candidate materials of which 20 are now identified as critical to the EU (EC, 2014). These include metals such as indium, mostly used in flat-screen displays, antimony for flame retardants and cobalt for rechargeable batteries, alloys and a host of other products. Although there is no consensus on the methodology for criticality assessments and broad analyses at this scale are inevitably imperfect, they can, nevertheless, provide early warning of supply problems. However, in order to develop more rigorous and dynamic assessments of future availability detailed analysis of the whole life-cycle of individual metals to identify specific problems and develop appropriate solutions is required. New policies, such as the Raw Materials Initiative (2008) and the European Innovation Partnership on Raw Materials (2013), have been developed by the European Commission (EC) and are aimed at securing sustainable

  11. Potential Risks of Ecological Momentary Assessment Among Persons Who Inject Drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, Alexis M; Rossi, John; Goldshear, Jesse L; Truong, Quan; Armenta, Richard F; Lankenau, Stephen E; Garfein, Richard S; Simmons, Janie

    2017-06-07

    Ecological momentary assessment (EMA)-which often involves brief surveys delivered via mobile technology-has transformed our understanding of the individual and contextual micro-processes associated with legal and illicit drug use. However, little empirical research has focused on participant's perspective on the probability and magnitude of potential risks in EMA studies. To garner participant perspectives on potential risks common to EMA studies of illicit drug use. We interviewed 38 persons who inject drugs living in San Diego (CA) and Philadelphia (PA), United States. They completed simulations of an EMA tool and then underwent a semi-structured interview that systematically explored domains of risk considered within the proposed revisions to the Federal Policy for the Protection of Human Subjects or the "Common Rule." Interviews were transcribed verbatim and coded systematically to explore psychological, physical, social, legal, and informational risks from participation. Participants perceived most risks to be minimal. Some indicated that repetitive questioning about mood or drug use could cause psychological (i.e., anxiety) or behavioral risks (i.e., drug use relapse). Ironically, the questions that were viewed as risky were considered motivational to engage in healthy behaviors. The most cited risks were legal and social risks stemming from participant concerns about data collection and security. Improving our understanding of these issues is an essential first step to protect human participants in future EMA research. We provide a brief set of recommendations that can aid in the design and ethics review of the future EMA protocol with substance using populations.

  12. Career development and personal success profile of students - followers and students - potential future leaders: The case of RIT Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasminka Samardžija

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the differences among students in terms of self-reported leadership characteristics. It was conducted among all three programs and four generations of undergraduates at RIT Croatia. The goal of this study is to determine the differences among students who report being more and less leadership prone (Potential Future Leaders and Followers, respectively with regard to demographic characteristics, reported self reliance socialization pattern, college level and program choice, career focus attainment and development, and reported attitudes regarding the importance of specific personality traits in leadership, the importance of specific career development factors and success indicators. Research showed that generation and college program are not related to student reported leadership proneness, suggesting that college education’s impact on leadership traits is not significant. Only one socio-demographic factor considered was significantly different between clusters; namely, the respondents who had moved once were significantly more represented in the Potential Future Leaders cluster, suggesting that study-abroad programs might play a role in leadership development. In terms of ranking career development factors, success indicators, the importance of emotional stability and openness to experience as a specific leadership trait, Potential Future Leaders reported higher scores in comparison with Followers cluster, potentially resulting from their forwardlooking, goal-oriented attitude.

  13. Assessing the Validity of the Simplified Potential Energy Clock Model for Modeling Glass-Ceramics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jamison, Ryan Dale [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Grillet, Anne M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Stavig, Mark E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Strong, Kevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Dai, Steve Xunhu [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-10-01

    Glass-ceramic seals may be the future of hermetic connectors at Sandia National Laboratories. They have been shown capable of surviving higher temperatures and pressures than amorphous glass seals. More advanced finite-element material models are required to enable model-based design and provide evidence that the hermetic connectors can meet design requirements. Glass-ceramics are composite materials with both crystalline and amorphous phases. The latter gives rise to (non-linearly) viscoelastic behavior. Given their complex microstructures, glass-ceramics may be thermorheologically complex, a behavior outside the scope of currently implemented constitutive models at Sandia. However, it was desired to assess if the Simplified Potential Energy Clock (SPEC) model is capable of capturing the material response. Available data for SL 16.8 glass-ceramic was used to calibrate the SPEC model. Model accuracy was assessed by comparing model predictions with shear moduli temperature dependence and high temperature 3-point bend creep data. It is shown that the model can predict the temperature dependence of the shear moduli and 3- point bend creep data. Analysis of the results is presented. Suggestions for future experiments and model development are presented. Though further calibration is likely necessary, SPEC has been shown capable of modeling glass-ceramic behavior in the glass transition region but requires further analysis below the transition region.

  14. Assessment and evaluation of geothermal potential in Switzerland; Atlas des ressources geothermiques suisses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andenmatten-Berthoud, N. [Geowatt AG, Zuerich (Switzerland); Kohl, T. [Eidgenossische Technische Hochschule (ETH), Institut de Geophysique, Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2003-07-01

    This report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy presents the first part of a project that aims at assessing the geothermal energy potential of Switzerland's underground. Due to the presence of the Alps the Swiss underground is highly heterogeneous with numerous geologic faults. Geothermal energy assessment has to be carried out region after region. The first steps consisted in collecting existing geological and hydrogeological data and finding out the best appropriate methodology. Analysis was restricted to the Northwest of Switzerland (Basle-Zurich area), which has a dense population - an important factor for future applications - and is better known than others, thanks to previous studies performed in conjunction with site pre-selection for future radioactive waste disposal facilities. In this area, sandstones and limestones are found on the crystalline bottom rock. Mathematical models and computer codes were developed for interpolation and extrapolation of local and regional data. Three dimensional finite-element techniques were used. The results are presented in diagrams and maps.

  15. Comprehensive Environmental Assessment Applied to Multiwalled Carbon Nanotube Flame-Retardant Coatings in Upholstery Textiles: A Case Study Presenting Priority Research Gaps for Future Risk Assessments (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    In September 2013, EPA announced the availability of the final report, Comprehensive Environmental Assessment Applied to Multiwalled Carbon Nanotube Flame-Retardant Coatings in Upholstery Textiles: A Case Study Presenting Priority Research Gaps for Future Risk Assessments...

  16. Potential in hot and tepid waters in the department of Landes - Present and future applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hauquin, J.P.; Godard, J.M.; Tronel, F.; Pouchan, P.

    1994-12-31

    This study of the geothermal waters potentialities in the Landes department has selectively reviewed the areas of interest in respect of geology and hydrogeology and gives a picture of their potential valorizations. In the Landes, the exploitation of geothermal fields outside of the use for spa bathing was mainly geared to conventional applications (flats heating, swimming pools). Today geothermal potentialities can be extended to balneotherapy, horticultural and market garden greenhouses, fish farming and wood drying. The study performed delivers a data base to be used by the investor to define and to accurately devise their projects of hot and tepid waters utilization. (Authors). 12 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  17. Hybrid vehicle potential assessment. Volume 7: Hybrid vehicle review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leschly, K. O.

    1979-01-01

    Review of hybrid vehicles built during the past ten years or planned to be built in the near future is presented. An attempt is made to classify and analyze these vehicles to get an overall picture of their key characteristics. The review includes onroad hybrid passenger cars, trucks, vans, and buses.

  18. Potential health benefits of simulated laughter: a narrative review of the literature and recommendations for future research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mora-Ripoll, Ramon

    2011-06-01

    Scientific research has shown that laughter may have both preventive and therapeutic values. Health-related benefits of laughter are mainly reported from spontaneous laughter interventional studies. While the human mind can make a distinction between simulated and spontaneous laughter, the human body cannot. Either way health-related outcomes are deemed to be produced. Simulated laughter is thus a relatively under-researched treatment modality with potential health benefits. The aim of this review was firstly to identify, critically evaluate and summarize the laughter literature; secondly to assess to which extent simulated laughter health-related benefits are currently sustained by empirical evidence; and lastly to provide recommendations and future directions for further research. A comprehensive laughter literature search was performed. A list of inclusion and exclusion criteria was identified. Thematic analysis was applied to summarize laughter health-related outcomes, relationships, and general robustness. Laughter has shown different physiological and psychological benefits. Adverse effects are very limited and laughter is practically lacking in counter-indications. Despite the limited number of publications, there is some evidence to suggest that simulated laughter has also some effects on certain aspects of health, though further well-designed research is warranted. Simulated laughter techniques can be easily implemented in traditional clinical settings for health and patient care. Their effective use for therapeutic purposes needs to be learned, practiced, and developed as any other medical strategy. Practical guidelines and further research are needed to help health care professionals (and others) implement laughter techniques in their health care portfolio. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Biogeochemical-Argo: achievements, challenges for the future and potential synergies with other components of ocean observation systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claustre, Hervé; Johnson, Ken

    2017-04-01

    The recently launched Biogeochemical-Argo (BGC-Argo) program aims at developing a global network of biogeochemical sensors on Argo profiling floats for acquiring long-term high-quality time-series of oceanic properties. BGC-Argo is in particular poised to address a number of challenges in ocean science (e.g. hypoxia, carbon uptake, ocean acidification, biological-carbon pump and phytoplankton communities), topics that are difficult, if not impossible, to address with our present observing assets. Presently six variables are considered as core BGC-Argo variables (O2, NO3, pH, Chla, suspended particles and downwelling irradiance). Historically, BGC-Argo has been initiated through small-scale "showcase" projects progressively scaling up into regional case studies essentially addressing key biological pump-related questions in specific regions (e.g. sub-tropical gyres, North Atlantic, Southern Ocean). Now BGC-Argo is transitioning towards a global and sustained observation system thanks to progressive international coordination of national contributions and to increasingly mature and efficient data management and distribution systems. In this presentation, we will highlight a variety of results derived from BGC-Argo observations and encompassing a wide range of topics related to ocean biogeochemistry. Challenges for the future and long-term sustainability of the system will be addressed in particular with respect to maintaining a high-quality and interoperable dataset over long-term. Part of this can be achieved through a tight interaction with programs (e.g. GOSHIP) and their historical databases, which should constitute a corner stone to assess data quality. Example on the interplay between BGC-Argo and GlodapV2 databases will be particularly exemplified in this context. Furthermore, we will illustrate the potential synergies between synoptically measured surface satellite-quantities and their vertically resolved (BGC-Argo) counterparts into the development of 3D

  20. "Helios Dynamics" A Potential Future Power Source for the Greek Islands

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Deligiannidis, Ioannis; Angelis, Ioannis

    2007-01-01

    .... Environmental concerns, economic benefits but most of all the potential exhaustion of the current sources of energy, such as fossil fuels, have alarmed the international community and gave incentives...

  1. Western Eos Chaos on Mars: A Potential Site for Future Landing and Returning Samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asif Iqbal Kakkassery; Rajesh, V. J.

    2018-04-01

    Introducing Eos Chaos as a potential area for collecting samples. Eos Chaos contains a number of aqueous minerals. We have detected zoisite — a least reported low-grade metamorphic mineral from this area.

  2. Assessment of the potential of urban organic carbon dynamics to off-set urban anthropogenic emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottschalk, P.; Churkina, G.; Wattenbach, M.; Cubasch, U.

    2010-12-01

    The impact of urban systems on current and future global carbon emissions has been a focus of several studies. Many mitigation options in terms of increasing energy efficiency are discussed. However, apart from technical mitigation potential urban systems also have a considerable biogenic potential to mitigate carbon through an optimized management of organic carbon pools of vegetation and soil. Berlin city area comprises almost 50% of areas covered with vegetation or largely covered with vegetation. This potentially offers various areas for carbon mitigation actions. To assess the mitigation potentials our first objective is to estimate how large current vegetation and soil carbon stocks of Berlin are. We use publicly available forest and soil inventories to calculate soil organic carbon of non-pervious areas and forest standing biomass carbon. This research highlights data-gaps and assigns uncertainty ranges to estimated carbon resources. The second objective is to assess the carbon mitigation potential of Berlin’s vegetation and soils using a biogeochemical simulation model. BIOME-BGC simulates carbon-, nitrogen- and water-fluxes of ecosystems mechanistically. First, its applicability for Berlin forests is tested at selected sites. A spatial application gives an estimate of current net carbon fluxes. The application of such a model allows determining the sensitivity of key ecosystem processes (e.g. carbon gains through photosynthesis, carbon losses through decomposition) towards external drivers. This information can then be used to optimise forest management in terms of carbon mitigation. Initial results of Berlin’s current carbon stocks and its spatial distribution and preliminary simulations results will be presented.

  3. Applying comprehensive environmental assessment to research planning for multiwalled carbon nanotubes: Refinements to inform future stakeholder engagement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, Christina M; Grieger, Khara; Meacham, Connie A; Gooding, Meredith Lassiter; Gift, Jeffrey S; Lehmann, Geniece M; Hendren, Christine O; Davis, J Michael; Burgoon, Lyle

    2016-01-01

    Risk assessments and risk management efforts to protect human health and the environment can benefit from early, coordinated research planning by researchers, risk assessors, and risk managers. However, approaches for engaging these and other stakeholders in research planning have not received much attention in the environmental scientific literature. The Comprehensive Environmental Assessment (CEA) approach under development by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) is a means to manage complex information and input from diverse stakeholder perspectives on research planning that will ultimately support environmental and human health decision making. The objectives of this article are to 1) describe the outcomes of applying lessons learned from previous CEA applications to planning research on engineered nanomaterial, multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) and 2) discuss new insights and refinements for future efforts to engage stakeholders in research planning for risk assessment and risk management of environmental issues. Although framed in terms of MWCNTs, this discussion is intended to enhance research planning to support assessments for other environmental issues as well. Key insights for research planning include the potential benefits of 1) ensuring that participants have research, risk assessment, and risk management expertise in addition to diverse disciplinary backgrounds; 2) including an early scoping step before rounds of formal ratings; 3) using a familiar numeric scale (e.g., US dollars) versus ordinal rating scales of "importance"; 4) applying virtual communication tools to supplement face-to-face interaction between participants; and 5) refining criteria to guide development of specific, actionable research questions. © 2015 SETAC.

  4. Techno-economic viability assessments of greener propulsion technology under potential environmental regulatory policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nalianda, D.K.; Kyprianidis, K.G.; Sethi, V.; Singh, R.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • An advanced method is presented for techno-economic assessment under potential environmental regulatory policy scenarios. • The viability of the contra-rotating open rotor concept is investigated under various environmental policies. • CO_2 taxation is needed to drive the aerospace industry towards greener solutions. - Abstract: Sustainability of the aviation industry, as any other industry, depends on the elasticity of demand for the product and profitability through minimising operating costs. Of paramount importance is assessing and understanding the interdependency and effects of environmentally optimised solutions and emission mitigation policies. This paper describes the development and application of assessment methodologies to better understand the effects of environmental taxation/energy policies aimed at environmental pollution reduction and the future potential economic impact they may have on the adaptation of “greener” novel technologies. These studies are undertaken using a Techno-economic Environmental Risk Assessment approach. The methodology demonstrated allows the assessment of the economic viability of new technologies compared to conventional technologies, for various CO_2 emission taxation and fuel price scenarios. It considers relative increases in acquisition price and maintenance costs. A study undertaken as a ‘proof of concept’ compares a Counter Rotating Open Rotor aircraft with a conventional aircraft for short range operations. It indicates that at current fuel price and with no carbon taxation, a highly fuel efficient technology, such as the one considered, could be rendered economically unviable. The work goes on to demonstrate that in comparison to the conventional aircraft, any economic benefits that may be accrued from improvement in fuel consumption through such a technology, may well be negated through increases in acquisition price and maintenance costs. The work further demonstrates that if policy

  5. Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J J; Pagé, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A

    2016-11-03

    Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by taking interactions between climate, land use and soil type into account. We conclude that climate change will have a much bigger influence on future SOC losses in mid-latitude mineral soils than land use change dynamics. Hence, reducing CO 2 emissions will be crucial to prevent further loss of carbon from our soils.

  6. Assessment of biofuel potential of dead neem leaves ( Azadirachta ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Unfortunately, the lack of information on the biomass and energy potentials of these wastes empedes any initiative for its industrial biomethanization. This study was investigated with the aim of evaluating the biofuel potentials of dead neem leaves in Maroua town. The number of neem trees, as well as biomass produced by ...

  7. Analyzing Potential Grid Impacts from Future In-Motion Roadway Wireless Power Transfer Scenarios: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meintz, Andrew; Gonder, Jeffrey; Jorgenson, Jennie; Brooker, Aaron

    2016-08-01

    This work examines the grid impact of in-motion roadway wireless power transfer through the examination of the electrification of high-capacity roadways inside a metropolitan area. The work uses data from a regional travel study and the Federal Highway Administration's Highway Performance Monitoring System to estimate the electrified roadway's hourly power use throughout a week. The data are then combined with hourly grid load estimates for the same metropolitan area to determine the overlay of traditional grid load with additional load from a future electrified roadway.

  8. Looking Ahead: The Inclusion of Long-Term Futures in Cumulative Environmental Assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munn, R.E.

    1994-01-01

    Proceeding of a workshop on the Inclusion of Long-Term Futures in Cumulative Environmental Assessments (CEA's) were presented.. Also included were three working group reports and papers presented at the conference. The issue of the concept of Cumulative Environmental Assessments was summarized, along with the current transformation to a more global outlook. The concepts and methodological questions associated with ecology and economics were tackled. CEA methods were discussed and a contrast was made with land-use planning. The importance of long-term monitoring programs was introduced and examples of early warning systems were given. Social science issues behind CEAs were also discussed. Recommendation e for preparing CEA's, the design of early warning monitoring systems, and public involvement, were made.. Contributed papers covered topics related to environmental assessment, pollution, and climate change

  9. Integrated environmental assessment of future energy scenarios based on economic equilibrium models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igos, E.; Rugani, B.; Rege, S.; Benetto, E.; Drouet, L.; Zachary, D.; Haas, T.

    2014-01-01

    The future evolution of energy supply technologies strongly depends on (and affects) the economic and environmental systems, due to the high dependency of this sector on the availability and cost of fossil fuels, especially on the small regional scale. This paper aims at presenting the modeling system and preliminary results of a research project conducted on the scale of Luxembourg to assess the environmental impact of future energy scenarios for the country, integrating outputs from partial and computable general equilibrium models within hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) frameworks. The general equilibrium model for Luxembourg, LUXGEM, is used to evaluate the economic impacts of policy decisions and other economic shocks over the time horizon 2006-2030. A techno-economic (partial equilibrium) model for Luxembourg, ETEM, is used instead to compute operation levels of various technologies to meet the demand for energy services at the least cost along the same timeline. The future energy demand and supply are made consistent by coupling ETEM with LUXGEM so as to have the same macro-economic variables and energy shares driving both models. The coupling results are then implemented within a set of Environmentally-Extended Input-Output (EE-IO) models in historical time series to test the feasibility of the integrated framework and then to assess the environmental impacts of the country. Accordingly, a dis-aggregated energy sector was built with the different ETEM technologies in the EE-IO to allow hybridization with Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and enrich the process detail. The results show that the environmental impact slightly decreased overall from 2006 to 2009. Most of the impacts come from some imported commodities (natural gas, used to produce electricity, and metalliferous ores and metal scrap). The main energy production technology is the combined-cycle gas turbine plant 'Twinerg', representing almost 80% of the domestic electricity production in Luxembourg

  10. Present and future assessment of growing degree days over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2017-10-01

    The determination of heat requirements in the first developing phases of plants has been expressed as Growing Degree Days (GDD). The current study focuses on three selected study areas in Greece that are characterised by different climatic conditions due to their location and aims to assess the future variation and spatial distribution of Growing Degree Days (GDD) and how these can affect the main cultivations in the study areas. Future temperature data were obtained and analysed by the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis was performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 with the A1B and B1 scenarios. Spatial distribution was performed using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling technique through ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for all the future periods and scenarios, the GDD are expected to increase. Furthermore, the increase in the Sperchios River basin will be the highest, followed by the Ardas and the Geropotamos River basins. Moreover, the cultivation period will be shifted from April-October to April-September which will have social, economical and environmental benefits. Additionally, the spatial distribution indicated that in the upcoming years the existing cultivations can find favourable conditions and can be expanded in mountainous areas as well. On the other hand, due to the rough topography that exists in the study areas, the wide expansion of the existing cultivations into higher altitudes is unaffordable. Nevertheless, new more profitable cultivations can be introduced which can find propitious conditions in terms of GDD.

  11. Assessment of the Allelopathic Potential of Extracts of Lavendula officinalis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. Nazemi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Human has always introduced various methods to control weeds. One of the best and the most modern methods is to use synthetic herbicides. The synthetic herbicides offer the same advantages compared to the other methods. They are selective, easy to apply, act quickly, relatively inexpensive, and can be used where other methods don’t work well. Therefore, their application have increased dramatically in the agricultural world and generated a series of additional problems such as herbicide resistance in weeds, soil and water pollution and the toxicity effects on human health and non-target species. With increasing global awareness about these disadvantages, the herbicidal potential of natural compound are focused because they have a short half-life and novel sites of action. Many natural compounds taken from many plant species, especially they are aromatic ones, have been studied for their herbicidal potential. For example, sorgoleone, isolated from Sorghum sp.; ailanthone, isolated from Ailanthus sp.; artemisinin, isolated from Artemisia sp.; coumarin, isolated from Ruta sp. and so on (5. The great interests in this field caused that the molecule of leptospermone isolated from Callistemon citrinus was optimized and then commercialized as mesotrione and sulcotrione herbicides (group F2/27 that inhibit p-hydroxyphenyl pyruvate dioxygenase (HPPD, a key enzyme in the biosynthesis of carotenoid and plastoquinone (9. Lavender (Lavandula sp. is a medicinal plant with allelopathic properties which belongs to the Lamiacae family. The substantial components of lavender are made up of coumarin. Despite this, 18 structural analogues of coumarin extracted from lavender, coumarin itself had the most phytotoxic on Lolium sp. (9. The antibacterial, antifungal, insecticidal and herbicidal activities were demonstrated by the lavender essence. The current research aimed to determine the allelopathic potential of lavender essence on the germination

  12. The Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment Mission and its Potential Contributions to Human Exploration of Asteroids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abell, Paul A.; Rivkin, Andy S.

    2014-01-01

    The joint ESA and NASA Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission will directly address aspects of NASA's Asteroid Initiative and will contribute to future human exploration. The NASA Asteroid Initiative is comprised of two major components: the Grand Challenge and the Asteroid Mission. The first component, the Grand Challenge, focuses on protecting Earth's population from asteroid impacts by detecting potentially hazardous objects with enough warning time to either prevent them from impacting the planet, or to implement civil defense procedures. The Asteroid Mission, involves sending astronauts to study and sample a near-Earth asteroid (NEA) prior to conducting exploration missions of the Martian system, which includes Phobos and Deimos. AIDA's primary objective is to demonstrate a kinetic impact deflection and characterize the binary NEA Didymos. The science and technical data obtained from AIDA will aid in the planning of future human exploration missions to NEAs and other small bodies. The dual robotic missions of AIDA, ESA's Asteroid Impact Monitor (AIM) and NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), will provide a great deal of technical and engineering data on spacecraft operations for future human space exploration while conducting in-depth scientific examinations of the binary target Didymos both prior to and after the kinetic impact demonstration. The knowledge gained from this mission will help identify asteroidal physical properties in order to maximize operational efficiency and reduce mission risk for future small body missions. The AIDA data will help fill crucial strategic knowledge gaps concerning asteroid physical characteristics that are relevant for human exploration considerations at similar small body destinations.

  13. Meeting the global food demand of the future by engineering crop photosynthesis and yield potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Stephen P; Marshall-Colon, Amy; Zhu, Xin-Guang

    2015-03-26

    Increase in demand for our primary foodstuffs is outstripping increase in yields, an expanding gap that indicates large potential food shortages by mid-century. This comes at a time when yield improvements are slowing or stagnating as the approaches of the Green Revolution reach their biological limits. Photosynthesis, which has been improved little in crops and falls far short of its biological limit, emerges as the key remaining route to increase the genetic yield potential of our major crops. Thus, there is a timely need to accelerate our understanding of the photosynthetic process in crops to allow informed and guided improvements via in-silico-assisted genetic engineering. Potential and emerging approaches to improving crop photosynthetic efficiency are discussed, and the new tools needed to realize these changes are presented. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Potential of small nuclear reactors for future clean and safe energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sekimoto, H.

    1992-01-01

    To cope with the various kinds of energy demands expected in the 21st century, it is necessary to explore the potential of small nuclear reactors and to find a way of promoting their introduction to society. The main goal of current research activities is 'the constitution of the self-consistent nuclear energy system'. These activities can be understood by realizing that the nuclear community is facing a turning point for its survival in the 21st century. Self-consistency can be manifested by investigating and developing the potential advantages of the nuclear fission reaction and lessening the potential disadvantages. The contributions in this volume discuss concepts of small reactors, applications of small reactors, and consistency with conventional energy supply systems

  15. Future Linear Colliders: Detector R&D, Jet Reconstruction and Top Physics Potential

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2098729; Ros Martinez, Eduardo

    During the 20th century, discoveries and measurements at colliders, combined with progress in theoretical physics, allowed us to formulate the Standard Model of the in- teractions between the constituents of matter. Today, there are two advanced projects for a new installation that will collide electrons and positrons covering an energy range from several hundreds of GeV to the multi-TeV scale, the International Linear Collider (ILC) and the Compact Linear Collider (CLIC). These Future Linear Colliders give the opportunity to study the top quark with unprecedented precision. Measurements of top quark properties are of special interest, as the top quark is the heaviest ele- mentary particle of the SM. Precision measurements of top quark properties at e+e colliders promise therefore to be highly sensitive to physics beyond the SM. This thesis has three complementary parts. The first is dedicated to the R&D of the ILD detector concept for future e+e- colliders, more precisely, the innermost region of the de...

  16. In search of future earths: assessing the possibility of finding Earth analogues in the later stages of their habitable lifetimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Malley-James, Jack T; Greaves, Jane S; Raven, John A; Cockell, Charles S

    2015-05-01

    Earth will become uninhabitable within 2-3 Gyr as a result of the increasing luminosity of the Sun changing the boundaries of the habitable zone (HZ). Predictions about the future of habitable conditions on Earth include declining species diversity and habitat extent, ocean loss, and changes to geochemical cycles. Testing these predictions is difficult, but the discovery of a planet that is an analogue to future Earth could provide the means to test them. This planet would need to have an Earth-like biosphere history and to be approaching the inner edge of the HZ at present. Here, we assess the possibility of finding such a planet and discuss the benefits of analyzing older Earths. Finding an old-Earth analogue in nearby star systems would be ideal, because this would allow for atmospheric characterization. Hence, as an illustrative example, G stars within 10 pc of the Sun are assessed as potential old-Earth-analog hosts. Six of these represent good potential hosts. For each system, a hypothetical Earth analogue is placed at locations within the continuously habitable zone (CHZ) that would allow enough time for Earth-like biosphere development. Surface temperature evolution over the host star's main sequence lifetime (assessed by using a simple climate model) is used to determine whether the planet would be in the right stage of its late-habitable lifetime to exhibit detectable biosignatures. The best candidate, in terms of the chances of planet formation in the CHZ and of biosignature detection, is 61 Virginis. However, planet formation studies suggest that only a small fraction (0.36%) of G stars in the solar neighborhood could host an old-Earth analogue. If the development of Earth-like biospheres is rare, requiring a sequence of low-probability events to occur, biosphere evolution models suggest they are rarer still, with only thousands being present in the Galaxy as a whole.

  17. The potential impact of invasive woody oil plants on protected areas in China under future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Guanghui; Yang, Jun; Lu, Siran; Huang, Conghong; Jin, Jing; Jiang, Peng; Yan, Pengbo

    2018-01-18

    Biodiesel produced from woody oil plants is considered a green substitute for fossil fuels. However, a potential negative impact of growing woody oil plants on a large scale is the introduction of highly invasive species into susceptible regions. In this study, we examined the potential invasion risk of woody oil plants in China's protected areas under future climate conditions. We simulated the current and future potential distributions of three invasive woody oil plants, Jatropha curcas, Ricinus communis, and Aleurites moluccana, under two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) up to 2050 using species distribution models. Protected areas in China that will become susceptible to these species were then identified using a spatial overlay analysis. Our results showed that by 2050, 26 and 41 protected areas would be threatened by these invasive woody oil plants under scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. A total of 10 unique forest ecosystems and 17 rare plant species could be potentially affected. We recommend that the invasive potential of woody oil plants be fully accounted for when developing forest-based biodiesel, especially around protected areas.

  18. Assessment of the potential radiological impact of residual contamination in the Maralinga and Emu areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haywood, S.M.; Smith, J.

    1990-10-01

    The report presents an assessment of potential doses to future inhabitants of the Maralinga and Emu areas of Southern Australia, where nuclear weapons tests in the 1950s and 1960s resulted in widespread residual radioactive contamination. Annual effective doses of several millisieverts would be expected to result from continual occupancy within contours enclosing areas of several hundred square kilometres. Larger predicted annual effective doses - of the order of 0.5 Sv -would be expected to occur from 100% occupancy in small regions immediately surrounding the test sites, but continual occupancy of such areas is highly unlikely because of their small size. The most significant dose pathways are inhalation of resuspended activity and ingestion of soil by infants. An analysis of the effects of uncertainties in the dose calculation indicated the uncertainty distribution on predicted doses from the inhalation pathway. (author)

  19. Development and validation of an instrument to assess future orientation and resilience in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Maggio, Ilaria; Ginevra, Maria Cristina; Nota, Laura; Soresi, Salvatore

    2016-08-01

    The study is aimed at providing the development and initial validation of the Design My Future (DMF), which may be administered in career counseling and research activities to assess adolescents' future orientation and resilience. Two studies with two independent samples of Italian adolescents were conducted to examine psychometric requisites of DMF. Specifically, in the first study, after developing items and examined the content validity, the factorial structure, reliability and discriminant validity of the DMF were tested. In the second study, the measurement invariance across gender, conducing a sequence of nested CFA models, was evaluated. Results showed good psychometric support for the instrument with Italian adolescents. Copyright © 2016 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. A Tool for Assessing Future Capacity Loss Due to Sedimentation in the United States' Reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinson, A. O.; Baker, B.; White, K. D.

    2017-12-01

    Federal reservoirs are critical components of the United States' water supply, flood risk management, hydropower and navigation infrastructure. These reservoirs included capacity for storage loss due to the deposition of sediment by inflowing streams in their original design. However, the actual rate of capacity loss experienced is controlled in part by climate, topography, soils, and land use/land cover, and may vary from the design. To assess the current and future vulnerability of its reservoirs to sedimentation. USACE has developed an online planning tool to identify USACE reservoirs where sedimentation is currently a problem (e.g., sedimentation rate exceeds design sedimentation rate, or zone losses disproportionately affect authorized purposes), and reservoirs where rates are expected to increase significantly in the future. The goal is to be able to prioritize operation and maintenance actions to minimize the effects of reservoir capacity loss on authorized purposes and help maximize reservoir use life.

  1. Assessing the Potential of Remote Sensing to Discriminate Invasive ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Bambo

    regions that showed potential of discriminating S. plumosum from grass which were determined from global ... grass species are needed, since they explain spectral properties of plants. 1. Introduction ..... 27, 29–37. Snyman, H., 2012a. Habitat ...

  2. Sustainable Biomass Potentials for Food-Feed-Fuels in the Future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm-Nielsen, Jens Bo; Kirchovas, Simas

    2012-01-01

    has for many years been forming the basis for the change together with wind and solar energy. These resources still contains great potentials for energy supply chains in increasing areas of Europe and the World. Biomass sustainability issues could be solved by developing the international...

  3. Head in the Clouds: A Review of Current and Future Potential for Cloud-Enabled Pedagogies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, Michael; Hedberg, John G.

    2011-01-01

    This paper reviews the research on the disruptive and transformative potential of newly-emerging cloud-based pedagogies. It takes into consideration the extent to which Cloud Computing can be leveraged to disseminate and scale web-based applications within and across learning contexts. It examines ideas from current literature in Web 2.0- and…

  4. Recovery of valuable nitrogen compounds from agricultural liquid wastes: potential possibilities, bottlenecks and future technological challenges.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rulkens, W.H.; Klapwijk, A.; Willers, H.C.

    1998-01-01

    Agricultural liquid livestock wastes are an important potential source of valuable nitrogen-containing compounds such as ammonia and proteins. Large volumetric quantities of these wastes are produced in areas with a high livestock production density. Much technological research has been carried out

  5. Assessing the global warming potential of wooden products from the furniture sector to improve their ecodesign

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    González-García, Sara; Gasol, Carles M.; Lozano, Raúl García; Moreira, Ma Teresa; Gabarrell, Xavier; Rieradevall i Pons, Joan; Feijoo, Gumersindo

    2011-01-01

    The main objective of this study was to determine the global warming potential of several wood products as an environmental criterion for their ecodesign. Two methodologies were combined: the quantification of greenhouse gas emissions (equivalent CO 2 ) of several representative wood based products from the furniture sector and the integration of environmental aspects into product design. The products under assessment were classified in two groups: indoor products and outdoor products, depending on their location. “Indoor products” included a convertible cot/bed, a kitchen cabinet, an office table, a living room furniture, a headboard, youth room accessories and a wine crate, while the “Outdoor products” analysed were a ventilated wooden wall and a wooden playground. Spanish wood processing companies located in Galicia (NW Spain) and Catalonia (NE Spain) were analysed in detail. The life cycle of each product was carried out from a cradle-to-gate perspective according to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, using global warming potential as the selected impact category. According to the results, metals, boards and energy use appeared to be the most contributing elements to the environmental impact of the different products under assessment, with total contributions ranging from 40% to 90%. Furthermore, eco-design strategies were proposed by means of the methodology known as Design for the Environment (DfE). Improvement strategies viable for implementation in the short term were considered and analysed in detail, accounting for remarkable reductions in the equivalent CO 2 emissions (up to 60%). These strategies would be focused on the use of renewable energies such as photovoltaic cells, the promotion of national fibres or changes in the materials used. Other alternatives to be implemented in the long term can be of potential interest for future developments.

  6. Assessing the global warming potential of wooden products from the furniture sector to improve their ecodesign

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez-Garcia, Sara, E-mail: sara.gonzalez@usc.es [Division of Biology, Department of Life Sciences, Sir Alexander Fleming Building, Imperial College of London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Department of Chemical Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, 15782- Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Gasol, Carles M.; Lozano, Raul Garcia [Inedit Innovacio, Carretera de Cabrils, km 2 -IRTA-, 08348 Cabrils, Barcelona (Spain); SosteniPrA - UAB-IRTA, Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (UAB), 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain); Moreira, Ma Teresa [Department of Chemical Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, 15782- Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Gabarrell, Xavier; Rieradevall i Pons, Joan [SosteniPrA (UAB-IRTA), Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona UAB, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain); Department of Chemical Engineering, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (UAB), 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain); Feijoo, Gumersindo [Department of Chemical Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, 15782- Santiago de Compostela (Spain)

    2011-12-01

    The main objective of this study was to determine the global warming potential of several wood products as an environmental criterion for their ecodesign. Two methodologies were combined: the quantification of greenhouse gas emissions (equivalent CO{sub 2}) of several representative wood based products from the furniture sector and the integration of environmental aspects into product design. The products under assessment were classified in two groups: indoor products and outdoor products, depending on their location. 'Indoor products' included a convertible cot/bed, a kitchen cabinet, an office table, a living room furniture, a headboard, youth room accessories and a wine crate, while the 'Outdoor products' analysed were a ventilated wooden wall and a wooden playground. Spanish wood processing companies located in Galicia (NW Spain) and Catalonia (NE Spain) were analysed in detail. The life cycle of each product was carried out from a cradle-to-gate perspective according to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, using global warming potential as the selected impact category. According to the results, metals, boards and energy use appeared to be the most contributing elements to the environmental impact of the different products under assessment, with total contributions ranging from 40% to 90%. Furthermore, eco-design strategies were proposed by means of the methodology known as Design for the Environment (DfE). Improvement strategies viable for implementation in the short term were considered and analysed in detail, accounting for remarkable reductions in the equivalent CO{sub 2} emissions (up to 60%). These strategies would be focused on the use of renewable energies such as photovoltaic cells, the promotion of national fibres or changes in the materials used. Other alternatives to be implemented in the long term can be of potential interest for future developments.

  7. Assessing the global warming potential of wooden products from the furniture sector to improve their ecodesign.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-García, Sara; Gasol, Carles M; Lozano, Raúl García; Moreira, María Teresa; Gabarrell, Xavier; Rieradevall i Pons, Joan; Feijoo, Gumersindo

    2011-12-01

    The main objective of this study was to determine the global warming potential of several wood products as an environmental criterion for their ecodesign. Two methodologies were combined: the quantification of greenhouse gas emissions (equivalent CO(2)) of several representative wood based products from the furniture sector and the integration of environmental aspects into product design. The products under assessment were classified in two groups: indoor products and outdoor products, depending on their location. "Indoor products" included a convertible cot/bed, a kitchen cabinet, an office table, a living room furniture, a headboard, youth room accessories and a wine crate, while the "Outdoor products" analysed were a ventilated wooden wall and a wooden playground. Spanish wood processing companies located in Galicia (NW Spain) and Catalonia (NE Spain) were analysed in detail. The life cycle of each product was carried out from a cradle-to-gate perspective according to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, using global warming potential as the selected impact category. According to the results, metals, boards and energy use appeared to be the most contributing elements to the environmental impact of the different products under assessment, with total contributions ranging from 40% to 90%. Furthermore, eco-design strategies were proposed by means of the methodology known as Design for the Environment (DfE). Improvement strategies viable for implementation in the short term were considered and analysed in detail, accounting for remarkable reductions in the equivalent CO(2) emissions (up to 60%). These strategies would be focused on the use of renewable energies such as photovoltaic cells, the promotion of national fibres or changes in the materials used. Other alternatives to be implemented in the long term can be of potential interest for future developments. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Securing the future in the anthropocene: A critical analysis of the millennium ecosystem assessment scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert P. Marzec

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This commentary analyzes the ontological character of the United Nations’ Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005 and its attempt to imagine business-as-usual and transformative human-environmental futures. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA constitutes the first and most significant attempt by an international political body to incorporate environmental concerns into the field of imaginative scenario building. In addition to its lengthy report on the threatened status of planetary ecosystems, the MA contains extensive “future scenarios” that imagine how human-environmental relations might unfold over the course of the twenty-first century. These scenarios arise out of the lineage of military scenarios generated during the Cold War, and continue to inform UN assessments in the present. This commentary explores how a politico-military concern for security informs the framework of the scenarios, and limits how the MA characterizes the fundamental human act of narration. In the process, the commentary explores alternative ontologies of narration and how these may lead to more transformative narratological interventions.

  9. Planning for sustainable tourism in southern Pulau Banggi: an assessment of biophysical conditions and their implications for future tourism development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teh, Lydia; Cabanban, Annadel S

    2007-12-01

    A priori assessments of a site's biophysical and socio-economic capacity for accommodating tourism are less common than tourism impact studies. A priori evaluations can provide a contextual understanding of ecological, economic and socio-cultural forces, which shape the prospects for sustainable tourism development at the host destination, and can avert adverse impacts of tourism. We conduct an a priori assessment of the biophysical environment of Pulau Banggi, in the Malaysian state of Sabah for sustainable tourism development. We characterise baseline conditions of the island's marine biodiversity, seasonality, and infrastructure. We then evaluate how existing biophysical conditions will influence options for sustainable tourism development. In particular, we suggest conditions, if there are any, which constitute a limit to future tourism development in terms of compatibility for recreation and resilience to visitor impacts. We find that the biggest constraint is the lack of adequate water and sanitation infrastructure. Blast fishing, although occurring less than once per hour, can potentially destroy the major attraction for tourists. We conclude that while Pulau Banggi possesses natural qualities that are attractive for ecotourism, financial and institutional support must be made available to provide facilities and services that will enable local participation in environmental protection and enhance prospects for future sustainable tourism.

  10. The future of high energy gamma ray astronomy and its potential astrophysical implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fichtel, C. E.

    1982-01-01

    Future satellites should carry instruments having over an order of magnitude greater sensitivity than those flown thus far as well as improved energy and angular resolution. The information to be obtained from these experiments should greatly enhance knowledge of: the very energetic and nuclear processes associated with compact objects; the structure of our galaxy; the origin and dynamic pressure effects of the cosmic rays; the high energy particles and energetic processes in other galaxies; and the degree of matter-antimatter symmetry of the universe. The relevant aspects of extragalactic gamma ray phenomena are emphasized along with the instruments planned. The high energy gamma ray results of forthcoming programs such as GAMMA-1 and the Gamma Ray Observatory should justify even more sophisticated telescopes. These advanced instruments might be placed on the space station currently being considered by NASA.

  11. The potential of induced pluripotent stem cells in models of neurological disorders: implications on future therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crook, Jeremy Micah; Wallace, Gordon; Tomaskovic-Crook, Eva

    2015-03-01

    There is an urgent need for new and advanced approaches to modeling the pathological mechanisms of complex human neurological disorders. This is underscored by the decline in pharmaceutical research and development efficiency resulting in a relative decrease in new drug launches in the last several decades. Induced pluripotent stem cells represent a new tool to overcome many of the shortcomings of conventional methods, enabling live human neural cell modeling of complex conditions relating to aberrant neurodevelopment, such as schizophrenia, epilepsy and autism as well as age-associated neurodegeneration. This review considers the current status of induced pluripotent stem cell-based modeling of neurological disorders, canvassing proven and putative advantages, current constraints, and future prospects of next-generation culture systems for biomedical research and translation.

  12. Estimating the future ice sheet hydropower potential in Paakitsoq, Ilulissat, West Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahlstrøm, Andreas P.; Mottram, R.H.; Nielsen, C.

    2008-01-01

    sheet has emphasized the risk of sudden changes in catchment supply. In this study, we present a thorough investigation of hydropower feasibility at the Paakitsoq basin, near Ilulissat in West Greenland. The catchment is completely dominated by the Greenland ice sheet which provides large quantities...... of meltwater during the summer season. However, geometrical changes in the ice sheet, for example due to a retreat or an advance of the ice sheet margin, could change the hydrological catchment within the ice sheet. Such a change would have a devastating economical impact as a hydropower plant is a significant...... long-term investment for an Arctic community of modest population. Here we present a new bedrock and surface map of the Paakitsoq/Swiss Camp part of the Greenland ice sheet and a prediction of the future discharge up to 2080 AD using regional climate model output, dynamic ice sheet modelling...

  13. Impact of future climatic conditions on the potential for soil organic matter priming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reinsch, Sabine; Ambus, Per; Thornton, Barry

    2013-01-01

    Terrestrial carbon (C) storage and turnover are of major interest under changing climatic conditions. We present a laboratory microcosm study investigating the effects of anticipated climatic conditions on the soil microbial community and related changes in soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition....... Soil samples were taken from a heath-land after six years of exposure to elevated carbon dioxide (eCO2) in combination with summer drought (D) and increased temperature (T). Soil C-dynamics were investigated in soils from: (i) ambient, (ii) eCO2, and (iii) plots exposed to the combination of factors...... simulating future climatic conditions (TDeCO2) that simulate conditions predicted for Denmark in 2075. 13C enriched glucose (3 atom% excess) was added to soil microcosms, soil CO2 efflux was measured over a period of two weeks and separated into glucose- and SOM-derived C. Microbial biomass was measured...

  14. State Support for Clean Energy Deployment. Lessons Learned for Potential Future Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kubert, Charles [Clean Energy States Alliance, Montpelier, VT (United States); Sinclair, Mark [Clean Energy States Alliance, Montpelier, VT (United States)

    2011-04-01

    Proposed federal clean energy initiatives and climate legislation have suggested significant increases to federal funding for clean energy deployment and investment. Many states and utilities have over a decade of experience and spend billions of public dollars every year to support EE/RE deployment through programs that reduce the cost of technologies, provide financing for EE/RE projects, offer technical assistance, and educate market participants. Meanwhile, constraints on public expenditures at all levels of government continue to call upon such programs to demonstrate their value. This report reviews the results of these programs and the specific financial incentives and financing tools used to encourage clean energy investment. Lessons from such programs could be used to inform the future application of EE/RE incentives and financing tools. These lessons learned apply to use of distributed resources and the historical focus of these EE/RE programs.

  15. State Support for Clean Energy Deployment: Lessons Learned for Potential Future Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kubert, C.; Sinclair, M.

    2011-04-01

    Proposed federal clean energy initiatives and climate legislation have suggested significant increases to federal funding for clean energy deployment and investment. Many states and utilities have over a decade of experience and spend billions of public dollars every year to support EE/RE deployment through programs that reduce the cost of technologies, provide financing for EE/RE projects, offer technical assistance, and educate market participants. Meanwhile, constraints on public expenditures at all levels of government continue to call upon such programs to demonstrate their value. This report reviews the results of these programs and the specific financial incentives and financing tools used to encourage clean energy investment. Lessons from such programs could be used to inform the future application of EE/RE incentives and financing tools. These lessons learned apply to use of distributed resources and the historical focus of these EE/RE programs.

  16. The utility of the historical record in assessing future carbon budgets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millar, R.; Friedlingstein, P.; Allen, M. R.

    2017-12-01

    It has long been known that the cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most physically relevant determiner of long-lived anthropogenic climate change, with an approximately linear relationship between CO2-induced global mean surface warming and cumulative emissions. The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emission and global mean warming using observations to date. Here we show that simple regression analysis indicates that the 1.5°C carbon budget would be exhausted after nearly three decades of current emissions, substantially in excess of many estimates from Earth System Models. However, there are many reasons to be cautious about carbon budget assessments from the historical record alone. Accounting for the uncertainty in non-CO2 radiative forcing using a simple climate model and a standard optimal fingerprinting detection attribution technique gives substantial uncertainty in the contribution of CO2 warming to date, and hence the transient climate response to cumulative emissions. Additionally, the existing balance between CO2 and non-CO2 forcing may change in the future under ambitious mitigation scenarios as non-CO2 emissions become more (or less) important to global mean temperature changes. Natural unforced variability can also have a substantial impact on estimates of remaining carbon budgets. By examining all warmings of a given magnitude in both the historical record and past and future ESM simulations we quantify the impact unforced climate variability may have on estimates of remaining carbon budgets, derived as a function of estimated non-CO2 warming and future emission scenario. In summary, whilst the historical record can act as a useful test of climate models, uncertainties in the response to future cumulative emissions remain large and extrapolations of future carbon budgets from the historical record alone should be treated with caution.

  17. Potential Bias in Projecting Future Regional Megadrought Risk: Insights From A Global Data-Model Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.; Ault, T.; Cole, J. E.; Fasullo, J.; Loope, G. R.; Parsons, L. A.; Stevenson, S.

    2015-12-01

    Megadrought is one of the most significant and costly climate extremes, and one that stakeholders (e.g., water and other resource managers) the world over wish to understand better; in particular, they need estimates of the risk of severe droughts as a function of drought frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. In many dry-climate regions of the globe, megadrought is synonymous with multi-decadal drought. However, in other regions, megadrought can be defined as extended drought, mostly not seen in the period of instrumental observations, and that would have large impacts if it were to occur in the future. New and published paleoclimatic observations allow us to understand the spectrum of drought in many regions of the globe; droughts exceeding 50 years have occurred in recent Earth history in southwestern North America, sub-Saharan Africa, the Mediterranean and Australia, whereas shorter megadroughts have occurred in Monsoon Asia, Amazonia and elsewhere. Data-model comparisons for regions with sufficiently long (e.g., 1000-2000 years) records of observed hydroclimatic variability suggest that state-of-the-art models can provide realistic estimates of interannual to decadal drought risk, but underestimate the risk of megadrought. Likely reasons for this shortcoming are the lack of sufficient multi-decadal variability in simulations of the past and future, plus an underappreciated understanding about how temperature variability and land-surface feedbacks interact with hydrological and ecological drought, as well as the roles played by unusually wet hydroclimatic extremes (e.g., ENSO related) in ending droughts of long duration. Paleoclimatic records also provide the opportunity to estimate how much models underestimate megadrought risk as a function of locale, frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration; they also aid in providing stakeholders with bias-corrected estimates of megadrought risk.

  18. Assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abah, Roland Clement; Petja, Brilliant Mareme

    2016-12-01

    Agriculture in the Lower Benue River Basin faces several challenges which threaten the future of agricultural development. This study was an assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin. Through analysis of physical and socioeconomic parameters, the study adapted an impact assessment model to rank potential impacts on agricultural development in the study area. Rainfall intensity seemed to be increasing with a gradual reduction in the number of rainy days. The average discharge at Makurdi hydrological station was 3468.24 cubic metres per second (m 3  s -1 ), and the highest peak flow discharge was 16,400 m 3  s -1 . The daily maximum temperature and annual temperature averages for the study area are gradually rising leading to increased heat stress. Physical and chemical analyses showed that the soils are moderately fertile but require effective application of inorganic and organic fertilisers. The main occupational activities in the study area are agricultural based. The identified potential impacts of climate change on agriculture were categorised under atmospheric carbon dioxides and oxides, rainfall intensity, frequency of floods and droughts, temperature intensity and variation, heat stress, surface water trends, and soil quality and fertility. The identified potential impacts related to population dynamics on agriculture were categorised under population growth, rural-urban migration, household income and infectious diseases and HIV and AIDS. Community-level mitigation strategies were proffered. Policy makers are advised to promote irrigation farming, support farmers with farm inputs and credit facilities and establish active agricultural extension services to support the sustainable development of agriculture.

  19. The impact of adolescent females' assessments of parenthood and employment on plans for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie, L A

    1986-02-01

    This study explores adolescent females' assessments of the rewards and costs of employment and parenthood, and the impact of these assessments on their plans for organizing their adult lives. 549 young women enrolled in the 11th and 12 grades at public schools in New York City completed questionnaires addressing their future work and fertility plans, characteristics of their present family life, and their assessments of how rewarding and costly the roles of employee and parent would be to them. Results suggest that daughters of homemakers and daughters of employed women differ in their assessment of each role, and take different factors into consideration when making these assessments. In evaluating work, daughters whose mothers are employed were likely to depend on their mothers' experiences for guidance. On the other hand, daughters whose mothers are homemakers have to go through a more elaborate process of deduction. They appear to assess whether their mothers are happy where they are now and then project whether another role would be more satisfying. These young women also tend to incorporate the opinion of the father more than do daughters of employed mothers. In evaluating the impact of children, the young woman's relation with her own mother is a critical factor affecting both group' assessments of the costs of children as well as the employed group's assessments of the rewards of children. Finally, the limitations of the sample should be kept in mind when discussing the results. Though the sample was large numerically, the overall response rate was low. In addition, the sample consisted of a large number of Catholic respondents.

  20. Partitioning-transmutation technology: a potential future nuclear waste management option

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakayama, S.; Morita, Y.; Nishihara, K.; Oigawa, H.

    2005-01-01

    Partitioning-transmutation technology (PT) will produce radioactive wastes of different physical and chemical properties and in different amounts from those generated in the current nuclear fuel cycle. To assess quantitatively the effects of PT on waste disposal, we first analyzed the amounts of the PT wastes, assumed conditioning for each type of the waste, and then made an attempt to estimate the repository area for disposal of the PT wastes. The properties of the hot Sr-Cs waste form are controlling factors in determining the size of the geologic repository. The disposal area could be reduced if the Sr-Cs fraction is disposed in a different subsurface repository or by long-term storage of the waste under institutional control. Disposal in a subsurface repository was found to comply with the Japanese law in terms of radioactivity constraint, through a performance assessment for disposal of the Sr-Cs fraction. (authors)

  1. [Biotechnological potential of methylotrophic bacteria: a review of current status and future prospects].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trotsenko, Iu A; Doronina, N V; Khmelenina, V N

    2005-01-01

    Major results of the authors' findings on the implementation of biotechnological potential of aerobic methylobacteria and methanotrophs for obtaining forage proteins, biopolymers (polybutyrate and polysaccharides), enzymes (oxidoreductases), and bioprotectors (ectoin), as well as for degrading toxic C1 and Cn compounds have been reviewed. Unique features of the structural and functional organization of the metabolism of extremophilic (tolerant) methylotrophs are discussed, with a view for their prospective use in various fields of modern biotechnology, including biocatalysis and nanotechnology.

  2. Modelling the potential consequences of future worldwide biomass energy demand for the french forests and timber

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buongiorno, Joseph; Raunikar, Ronald; Zhu, Shushuai

    2011-01-01

    This article describes an investigation conducted, using a world model for the forestry and forest-based industries, on the effects of the current unpredictable changes in worldwide demand for biomass energy on this sector in France. Two contrasting scenarios are tested. The results are commented and the potential conflict between various would uses - workable timber, industrial timber and dendro-energy - is underscored. (authors)

  3. The Importance of Damage Potential for Avalanche Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keiler, M.; Fuchs, S.

    2003-04-01

    Risk is normally expressed as a function of recurrence probability of a process and its related damage potential. Various physical and empirical models describing the process aspect of the risk formula exist in the field of avalanche risk management while studies on damage potential are rare. Due to the changes of the socio-economic structures in mountain regions (urban sprawl, population growth, increased mobility and tourism) these studies are mandatory. This study focuses on different possibilities to obtain obligatory input parameters for multitemporal studies in settlement areas. A conceptual method that records the damage potential (probability of presence, evaluation of buildings) was developed and applied in Tyrol, Austria. A second approach, working with real-time insurance values for buildings and population growth, was tested in Grison, Switzerland. The different developments of the damage potential in the two alpine study areas are highlighted; their influences on the risk formula are discussed. The results of both studies show the advantages and disadvantages of each method, such as precision, amount of time needed and possibilities of implementing in a GIS. The results serve to improve risk determination and point out an unnoticed increase of damage potential and risk in apparently safe settlement areas.

  4. Optimal design of future electricity supply systems. An analysis of potential bottlenecks in NW-Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joode, Jeroen de; Werven, Michiel van

    2005-01-01

    This paper analyses the potential bottlenecks that might emerge in the North-western European electricity supply system as a result of a number of (autonomous) long-term developments. The main long-term developments we identify are 1) a continuing increase in the demand for electricity, 2) a gradual shift from conventional electricity generation towards unconventional (green) generation, 3) a gradual shift from centralized generation towards decentralized generation and 4) a shift from national self-sufficient electricity supply systems towards a pan-European electricity system. Although it has been recognized that these developments might cause certain problems in some or more elements of the electricity supply chain, a coherent and comprehensive framework for the identification of these problems is lacking. More specific, governments and regulators seem to focus on certain parts of the electricity supply system separately, whereas certain interdependencies in the system have received relatively little attention. This paper presents such a framework and identifies some potential bottlenecks that receive relatively little attention from policy makers. These are 1) the increasing penetration of distributed generation, 2) an increasingly important role for demand response and 3) the lack of locational signals in the electricity supply system. The potential role of governments and markets in these issues is briefly explored. (Author)

  5. Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation as a neuropsychiatric tool: present status and future potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, R M; Kimbrell, T A; McCann, U D; Dunn, R T; Osuch, E A; Speer, A M; Weiss, S R

    1999-03-01

    Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) has emerged as a promising therapeutic intervention in the treatment of affective disorders. The differences in the type of electrical stimulation required for therapeutic efficacy by rTMS and electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) are discussed. In contrast to ECT, rTMS would not appear to require the generation of a major motor seizure to achieve therapeutic efficacy. Accordingly, it carries the potentially important clinical advantages of not requiring anesthesia and of avoiding side effects such as transient memory loss. Preclinical studies on long-term potentiation (LTP) and long-term depression (LTD) in hippocampal and amygdala slices, as well as clinical data from neuroimaging studies, have provided encouraging clues for potential frequency-dependent effects of rTMS. Preliminary evidence from position emission tomography (PET) scans suggests that higher frequency (20 Hz) stimulation may increase brain glucose metabolism in a transsynaptic fashion, whereas lower frequency (1 Hz) stimulation may decrease it. Therefore, the ability of rTMS to control the frequency as well as the location of stimulation, in addition to its other advantages, has opened up new possibilities for clinical explorations and treatments of neuropsychiatric conditions.

  6. Potential for a hazardous geospheric response to projected future climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, B

    2010-05-28

    Periods of exceptional climate change in Earth history are associated with a dynamic response from the geosphere, involving enhanced levels of potentially hazardous geological and geomorphological activity. The response is expressed through the adjustment, modulation or triggering of a broad range of surface and crustal phenomena, including volcanic and seismic activity, submarine and subaerial landslides, tsunamis and landslide 'splash' waves, glacial outburst and rock-dam failure floods, debris flows and gas-hydrate destabilization. In relation to anthropogenic climate change, modelling studies and projection of current trends point towards increased risk in relation to a spectrum of geological and geomorphological hazards in a warmer world, while observations suggest that the ongoing rise in global average temperatures may already be eliciting a hazardous response from the geosphere. Here, the potential influences of anthropogenic warming are reviewed in relation to an array of geological and geomorphological hazards across a range of environmental settings. A programme of focused research is advocated in order to: (i) understand better those mechanisms by which contemporary climate change may drive hazardous geological and geomorphological activity; (ii) delineate those parts of the world that are most susceptible; and (iii) provide a more robust appreciation of potential impacts for society and infrastructure.

  7. ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL TSUNAMI GENERATION IN CHINA'S BOHAI SEA FROM DIRECT GEOTECTONIC AND COLLATERAL SOURCE MECHANISMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Pararas Carayannis

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The Bohai Sea borders northeastern China's most populous and highest economic valuecoastal areas where several megacities are located. Critical infrastructure facilities exist or areunder construction, including a nuclear power plant and super port facilities. Large reserves of oilhave been discovered and a number of offshore oil platforms have been built. The extent ofdevelopment along coastal areas requires a better assessment of potential tsunami risks. Althoughtsunamis do not pose as much of a threat as earthquakes in this region, locally destructive tsunamishave been generated in the past and future events could have significant impacts on coastalpopulations and China's economy, particularly because most of the development has taken place inlow-lying regions, including river deltas. The present study examines the geotectonics of the Bohaibasin region, the impact of past historical events, and the potential for local tsunami generationfrom a variety of direct and collateral source mechanisms triggered by intra plate earthquakes.More specifically, the present study examines: amajor active faults bounding the Bohai Basin; bthe resulting crustal deformation patterns of tectonic structures that have resulted in catastrophicearthquakes in recent years; c the basin-wide extension - with local inversion - extending into theBohai Sea that generated tsunamigenic earthquakes in 1888 and 1969; and d deformational futureseismic events with the potential to generate local tsunamis directly or by collateral mechanisms offolding, en-echelon bookshelf failures, or from destabilization/dissociation of structuralaccumulations of gas hydrate deposits within the basin's thick sedimentary stratigraphic layers.

  8. Assessment of Soil Liquefaction Potential Based on Numerical Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Choobasti, A. Janalizadeh; Vahdatirad, Mohammad Javad; Torabi, M.

    2012-01-01

    Paying special attention to geotechnical hazards such as liquefaction in huge civil projects like urban railways especially in susceptible regions to liquefaction is of great importance. A number of approaches to evaluate the potential for initiation of liquefaction, such as Seed and Idriss...... simplified method have been developed over the years. Although simplified methods are available in calculating the liquefaction potential of a soil deposit and shear stresses induced at any point in the ground due to earthquake loading, these methods cannot be applied to all earthquakes with the same...... accuracy, also they lack the potential to predict the pore pressure developed in the soil. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out a ground response analysis to obtain pore pressures and shear stresses in the soil due to earthquake loading. Using soil historical, geological and compositional criteria...

  9. Integrated impact assessment in the UK--use, efficacy and future development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milner, Susan J.; Bailey, Cathy; Deans, Julia; Pettigrew, Dulcie

    2005-01-01

    This paper reports on the findings of an English Department of Health funded study that mapped out examples of integrated impact assessment (IIA) activity, mainly in the UK. Approximately 350 regional and local organisations that have policy and policy implementation roles were contacted via e-mail and from these, 77 telephone interviews were carried out. The interviews revealed 21 examples of IIA being used or developed within the UK. The 77 interviews also generated a rich discussion about the use, efficacy and future development of IIA. Although the findings indicate little IIA activity in the UK, discussions with interviewees suggest that there is growing receptiveness to integrating different forms of assessment into a single assessment process. In part this appears to be driven by sustainable development objectives, both at a strategic and at a local level. In part receptivity to IIA may also be driven by a growing interest in health impact assessment (HIA). There are advocates of the need to integrate health criteria more fully into other forms of impact assessment. The study also highlights the challenges involved in trying to develop IIA methods that are adaptable, flexible and tailored to the different needs of policy-makers and planners

  10. Emission potentials of future diesel fuel injection systems; Emissionspotentiale zukuenftiger Diesel-Einspritzsysteme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schommers, J.; Breitbach, H.; Stotz, M.; Schnabel, M. [DaimlerChrysler AG (Germany)

    2007-07-01

    The historical evolution of the diesel engine correlates strongly with fuel injection system developments. Mercedes-Benz contributed significantly to the recent success of the diesel engine, being one of the first car manufacturers to introduce a modern common rail diesel engine in the Mercedes C220 CDI in 1997. The excellent characteristics of modern diesel engines resulted in a 50% market share in newly registered cars in Germany. These characteristics have to be further improved in the next years to keep the diesel engine attractive. Emissions and at the same time fuel consumption and noise need to be further reduced, while engine power has to go up. For Mercedes-Benz key steps to reach these goals are lower compression ratio, higher boost pressures, higher exhaust gas recirculation rates and better EGR cooling, multiple injection patterns and components with stable application parameters over lifetime. Important requirements for future fuel injection systems are high spray momentum, good stability over lifetime, good robustness of injected quantities for varying injection patterns and a low shot-to-shot variation of injected quantities. The high spray momentum has to be achieved especially for small injections and for part load operating points with low pressures. Therefore, the needle opening and closing velocities are of special importance. With special focus on the above requirements, different injector concepts were hydraulically evaluated. Both concepts in serial production and under development from system suppliers, as well as Mercedes-Benz developed prototype injector concepts were chosen. The concepts analysed are a servo-hydraulically driven injector with control piston, two servo-hydraulically driven injectors without control piston with differently adjusted hydraulics, and a direct driven injector, where the needle is driven directly from an actuator without servo-hydraulic amplification. The hydraulic investigations show an excellent performance of

  11. Assessing potential health effects from municipal sludge incinerators: screening methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fradkin, L.; Bruins, J.F.; Lutkenhoff, S.D.; Stara, J.F.; Lomnitz, E.; Rubin, A.

    1987-04-01

    This paper describes a risk assessment methodology for preliminary assessment of municipal sludge incineration. The methodology is a valuable tool in that it can be used for determining the hazard indices of chemical contaminants that might be present in sewage sludge used in incineration. The paper examines source characteristics (i.e., facility design), atmospheric dispersion of emission, and resulting human exposure and risk from sludge incinerators. Seven of the ten organics were screened for further investigation. An example of the calculations are presented for cadmium.

  12. Alchemy in the underworld - recent progress and future potential of organic geochemistry applied to speleothems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blyth, Alison

    2016-04-01

    Speleothems are well used archives for chemical records of terrestrial environmental change, and the integration of records from a range of isotopic, inorganic, and organic geochemical techniques offers significant power in reconstructing both changes in past climates and identifying the resultant response in the overlying terrestrial ecosystems. The use of organic geochemistry in this field offers the opportunity to recover new records of vegetation change (via biomarkers and compound specific isotopes), temperature change (via analysis of glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, a compound group derived from microbes and varying in structure in response to temperature and pH), and changes in soil microbial behaviour (via combined carbon isotope analysis). However, to date the use of organic geochemical techniques has been relatively limited, due to issues relating to sample size, concerns about contamination, and unanswered questions about the origins of the preserved organic matter and rates of transport. Here I will briefly review recent progress in the field, and present a framework for the future research needed to establish organic geochemical analysis in speleothems as a robust palaeo-proxy approach.

  13. The hydrogen economy for a sustainable future and the potential contribution of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardy, C.

    2003-01-01

    The Hydrogen Economy encompasses the production of hydrogen using a wide range of energy sources, its storage and distribution as an economic and universal energy carrier, and its end use by industry and individuals with negligible emission of pollutants and greenhouse gases. Hydrogen is an energy carrier not a primary energy source, just like electricity is an energy carrier. The advantages of hydrogen as a means of storage and distribution of energy, and the methods of production of hydrogen, are reviewed. Energy sources for hydrogen production include fossil fuels, renewables, hydropower and nuclear power. Hydrogen has many applications in industry, for residential use and for transport by air, land and sea. Fuel cells are showing great promise for conversion of hydrogen into electricity and their development and current status are discussed. Non-energy uses of hydrogen and the safety aspects of hydrogen are also considered. It is concluded that the Hydrogen Economy, especially if coupled to renewable and nuclear energy sources, is a technically viable and economic way of achieving greater energy diversity and security and a sustainable future in this century

  14. The potential of FBMC over OFDM for the future 5G mobile communication technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, A. N.; Abdullah, M. F. L.

    2017-09-01

    Fifth Generation (5G) is the new evolution of mobile communication technology and will be launched soon in many countries. The researchers and designers of mobile communication technology have been facing the increasing demand of the mobile consumers, high data rates and mobility requirements needed by new wireless applications. Most of the countries have started research on 5G mobile communication technology that is predictable to be launched on 2020 in conjunction with the Olympic Games in Tokyo. Filterbank Multicarrier (FBMC) is one of the modulation techniques for the future 5G mobile communication technology. It uses the multicarrier techniques that are immune to fading caused by transmission of more than one path at a time and also immune to intersymbol interference besides able to function effectively compared to Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) which is used in Fourth Generation (4G) mobile communications technology. This paper discusses the performance of FBMC over OFDM based on the previous journals that were investigated by researchers.

  15. Potential applications of advanced remote handling and maintenance technology to future waste handling facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kring, C.T.; Herndon, J.N.; Meacham, S.A.

    1987-01-01

    The Consolidated Fuel Reprocessing Program (CFRP) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) h