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Sample records for assessing paternal risk

  1. Advanced paternal age and risk of fetal death: a cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nybo Andersen, Anne-Marie; Hansen, Kasper Daniel; Andersen, Per Kragh

    2004-01-01

    Cohort from 1997 to 1999 to assess the association between paternal age and fetal death. Fathers of the pregnancies were identified by record linkage to population registers. The paternal age-related risks of fetal death and its components, early and late fetal loss, were estimated using survival......A possible detrimental paternal age effect on offspring health due to mutations of paternal origin should be reflected in an association between paternal age and fetal loss. The authors used data from a prospective study of 23,821 pregnant women recruited consecutively to the Danish National Birth...... analysis. Pregnancies fathered by a man aged 50 or more years (n = 124) had almost twice the risk of ending in a fetal loss compared with pregnancies with younger fathers (hazard ratio = 1.88, 95% confidence interval: 0.93, 3.82), after adjustment for maternal age, reproductive history, and maternal...

  2. Paternal influences on adolescent sexual risk behaviors: a structured literature review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guilamo-Ramos, Vincent; Bouris, Alida; Lee, Jane; McCarthy, Katharine; Michael, Shannon L; Pitt-Barnes, Seraphine; Dittus, Patricia

    2012-11-01

    To date, most parent-based research has neglected the role of fathers in shaping adolescent sexual behavior and has focused on mothers. The objective of this study was to conduct a structured review to assess the role of paternal influence on adolescent sexual behavior and to assess the methodological quality of the paternal influence literature related to adolescent sexual behavior. We searched electronic databases: PubMed, PsychINFO, Social Services Abstracts, Family Studies Abstracts, Sociological Abstracts, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature. Studies published between 1980 and 2011 that targeted adolescents 11 to 18 years and focused on paternal parenting processes were included. Methodological quality was assessed by using an 11-item scoring system. Thirteen articles were identified and reviewed. Findings suggest paternal factors are independently associated with adolescent sexual behavior relative to maternal factors. The most commonly studied paternal influence was emotional qualities of the father-adolescent relationship. Paternal communication about sex was most consistently associated with adolescent sexual behavior, whereas paternal attitudes about sex was least associated. Methodological limitations include a tendency to rely on cross-sectional design, nonprobability sampling methods, and focus on sexual debut versus broader sexual behavior. Existing research preliminarily suggests fathers influence the sexual behavior of their adolescent children; however, more rigorous research examining diverse facets of paternal influence on adolescent sexual behavior is needed. We provide recommendations for primary care providers and public health practitioners to better incorporate fathers into interventions designed to reduce adolescent sexual risk behavior.

  3. Who's your daddy?: paternal inheritance of metabolic disease risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isganaitis, Elvira; Suehiro, Harumi; Cardona, Connie

    2017-02-01

    Although the importance of optimizing mothers' health prior to conception and during pregnancy is now well accepted, recent data also implicate health and nutritional status of fathers as contributors to chronic disease risk in their progeny. This brief review will highlight recent epidemiological and experimental studies linking paternal overnutrition, undernutrition, and other forms of stress, to metabolic disease in the offspring. The past 2 years have brought tremendous insights into the mechanisms by which paternal exposures can contribute to disease susceptibility in the next generation. Recent data, both from humans and experimental models, demonstrate that paternal obesity and undernutrition result in epigenetic reprogramming of male germ cells, notably altered DNA methylation, histone retention, and expression of small noncoding RNAs and transfer RNA fragments. Novel mechanisms have also been identified, such as epididymal transport vesicles, seminal fluid hormones and metabolites, and a unique seminal fluid microbiome. Paternal nutritional and other perturbations are linked to risk of metabolic disease and obesity in offspring. Germ cell-dependent mechanisms have recently been linked to these intergenerational effects. Nongenetic, paternal inheritance of chronic disease has important implications for public health, and may provide novel opportunities for multigenerational disease prevention.

  4. Paternal Influences on Adolescent Sexual Risk Behaviors: A Structured Literature Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouris, Alida; Lee, Jane; McCarthy, Katharine; Michael, Shannon L.; Pitt-Barnes, Seraphine; Dittus, Patricia

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: To date, most parent-based research has neglected the role of fathers in shaping adolescent sexual behavior and has focused on mothers. The objective of this study was to conduct a structured review to assess the role of paternal influence on adolescent sexual behavior and to assess the methodological quality of the paternal influence literature related to adolescent sexual behavior. METHODS: We searched electronic databases: PubMed, PsychINFO, Social Services Abstracts, Family Studies Abstracts, Sociological Abstracts, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature. Studies published between 1980 and 2011 that targeted adolescents 11 to 18 years and focused on paternal parenting processes were included. Methodological quality was assessed by using an 11-item scoring system. RESULTS: Thirteen articles were identified and reviewed. Findings suggest paternal factors are independently associated with adolescent sexual behavior relative to maternal factors. The most commonly studied paternal influence was emotional qualities of the father-adolescent relationship. Paternal communication about sex was most consistently associated with adolescent sexual behavior, whereas paternal attitudes about sex was least associated. Methodological limitations include a tendency to rely on cross-sectional design, nonprobability sampling methods, and focus on sexual debut versus broader sexual behavior. CONCLUSIONS: Existing research preliminarily suggests fathers influence the sexual behavior of their adolescent children; however, more rigorous research examining diverse facets of paternal influence on adolescent sexual behavior is needed. We provide recommendations for primary care providers and public health practitioners to better incorporate fathers into interventions designed to reduce adolescent sexual risk behavior. PMID:23071205

  5. Racial discrepancies in the association between paternal vs. maternal educational level and risk of low birthweight in Washington State

    OpenAIRE

    Nicolaidis, Christina; Ko, Cynthia W; Saha, Somnath; Koepsell, Thomas D

    2004-01-01

    Abstract Background The role of paternal factors in determining the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes has received less attention than maternal factors. Similarly, the interaction between the effects of race and socioeconomic status (SES) on pregnancy outcomes is not well known. Our objective was to assess the relative importance of paternal vs. maternal education in relation to risk of low birth weight (LBW) across different racial groups. Methods We conducted a retrospective population-bas...

  6. Racial discrepancies in the association between paternal vs. maternal educational level and risk of low birthweight in Washington State.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolaidis, Christina; Ko, Cynthia W; Saha, Somnath; Koepsell, Thomas D

    2004-06-17

    BACKGROUND: The role of paternal factors in determining the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes has received less attention than maternal factors. Similarly, the interaction between the effects of race and socioeconomic status (SES) on pregnancy outcomes is not well known. Our objective was to assess the relative importance of paternal vs. maternal education in relation to risk of low birth weight (LBW) across different racial groups. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective population-based cohort study using Washington state birth certificate data from 1992 to 1996 (n = 264,789). We assessed the associations between maternal or paternal education and LBW, adjusting for demographic variables, health services factors, and maternal behavioral and obstetrical factors. RESULTS: Paternal educational level was independently associated with LBW after adjustment for race, maternal education, demographic characteristics, health services factors; and other maternal factors. We found an interaction between the race and maternal education on risk of LBW. In whites, maternal education was independently associated with LBW. However, in the remainder of the sample, maternal education had a minimal effect on LBW. CONCLUSIONS: The degree of association between maternal education and LBW delivery was different in whites than in members of other racial groups. Paternal education was associated with LBW in both whites and non-whites. Further studies are needed to understand why maternal education may impact pregnancy outcomes differently depending on race and why paternal education may play a more important role than maternal education in some racial categories.

  7. Racial discrepancies in the association between paternal vs. maternal educational level and risk of low birthweight in Washington State

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ko Cynthia W

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The role of paternal factors in determining the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes has received less attention than maternal factors. Similarly, the interaction between the effects of race and socioeconomic status (SES on pregnancy outcomes is not well known. Our objective was to assess the relative importance of paternal vs. maternal education in relation to risk of low birth weight (LBW across different racial groups. Methods We conducted a retrospective population-based cohort study using Washington state birth certificate data from 1992 to 1996 (n = 264,789. We assessed the associations between maternal or paternal education and LBW, adjusting for demographic variables, health services factors, and maternal behavioral and obstetrical factors. Results Paternal educational level was independently associated with LBW after adjustment for race, maternal education, demographic characteristics, health services factors; and other maternal factors. We found an interaction between the race and maternal education on risk of LBW. In whites, maternal education was independently associated with LBW. However, in the remainder of the sample, maternal education had a minimal effect on LBW. Conclusions The degree of association between maternal education and LBW delivery was different in whites than in members of other racial groups. Paternal education was associated with LBW in both whites and non-whites. Further studies are needed to understand why maternal education may impact pregnancy outcomes differently depending on race and why paternal education may play a more important role than maternal education in some racial categories.

  8. Is advanced paternal age a health risk for the offspring?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Anne-Marie Nybo; Urhoj, Stine Kjaer

    2017-01-01

    consistently associated with increased paternal age are stillbirths, musculo-skeletal syndromes, cleft palate, acute lymphoblastic leukemia and retinoblastoma, and neurodevelopmental disorders in the autism spectrum and schizophrenia. Finally, we consider the public health impact of the increasing paternal age...

  9. PPO.46 Risk of Miscarriage associated with Maternal and Paternal Smoking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meaney, S.; Corcoran, P.; Lutomski, J.E.; Spillane, N.; O'Donoghue, K.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Maternal smoking has been associated with increased risk of miscarriage. However little is known about the influence of paternal smoking. The study aimed to examine maternal and paternal smoking as risk factors for miscarriage. STUDY DESIGN: A cohort study was conducted in a large,

  10. Adoptive paternal age and risk of psychosis in adoptees: a register based cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mats Ek

    Full Text Available The association between advancing paternal age and increased risk of schizophrenia in the off-spring is well established. The underlying mechanisms are unknown. In order to investigate whether the psychosocial environment associated with growing up with an aged father explains the increased risk we conducted a study of all adoptive children in Sweden from 1955-1985 (n =31 188. Their risk of developing schizophrenia or non-affective psychosis in relation to advancing age of their adoptive fathers' was examined. We found no association between risk of psychoses and advancing adoptive paternal age. There was no support of psychosocial environmental factors explaining the "paternal age effect".

  11. Personal and couple level risk factors: Maternal and paternal parent-child aggression risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Meagan C; Rodriguez, Christina M; Baker, Levi R

    2017-07-01

    Previous literature examining parent-child aggression (PCA) risk has relied heavily upon mothers, limiting our understanding of paternal risk factors. Moreover, the extent to which factors in the couple relationship work in tandem with personal vulnerabilities to impact PCA risk is unclear. The current study examined whether personal stress and distress predicted PCA risk (child abuse potential, over-reactive discipline style, harsh discipline practices) for fathers as well as mothers and whether couple functioning mediated versus moderated the relation between personal stress and PCA risk in a sample of 81 couples. Additionally, the potential for risk factors in one partner to cross over and affect their partner's PCA risk was considered. Findings indicated higher personal stress predicted elevated maternal and paternal PCA risk. Better couple functioning did not moderate this relationship but partially mediated stress and PCA risk for both mothers and fathers. In addition, maternal stress evidenced a cross-over effect, wherein mothers' personal stress linked to fathers' couple functioning. Findings support the role of stress and couple functioning in maternal and paternal PCA risk, including potential cross-over effects that warrant further inquiry. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Association of missing paternal demographics on infant birth certificates with perinatal risk factors for childhood obesity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erika R. Cheng

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The role of fathers in the development of obesity in their offspring remains poorly understood. We evaluated associations of missing paternal demographic information on birth certificates with perinatal risk factors for childhood obesity. Methods Data were from the Linked CENTURY Study, a database linking birth certificate and well-child visit data for 200,258 Massachusetts children from 1980–2008. We categorized participants based on the availability of paternal age, education, or race/ethnicity and maternal marital status on the birth certificate: (1 pregnancies missing paternal data; (2 pregnancies involving unmarried women with paternal data; and (3 pregnancies involving married women with paternal data. Using linear and logistic regression, we compared differences in smoking during pregnancy, gestational diabetes, birthweight, breastfeeding initiation, and ever recording a weight for length (WFL ≥ the 95th percentile or crossing upwards ≥2 WFL percentiles between 0–24 months among the study groups. Results 11,989 (6.0 % birth certificates were missing paternal data; 31,323 (15.6 % mothers were unmarried. In adjusted analyses, missing paternal data was associated with lower birthweight (β -0.07 kg; 95 % CI: −0.08, −0.05, smoking during pregnancy (AOR 4.40; 95 % CI: 3.97, 4.87, non-initiation of breastfeeding (AOR 0.39; 95 % CI: 0.36, 0.42, and with ever having a WFL ≥ 95th percentile (AOR 1.10; 95 % CI: 1.01, 1.20. Similar associations were noted for pregnancies involving unmarried women with paternal data, but differences were less pronounced. Conclusions Missing paternal data on the birth certificate is associated with perinatal risk factors for childhood obesity. Efforts to understand and reduce obesity risk factors in early life may need to consider paternal factors.

  13. Paternal occupational exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields and risk of adverse pregnancy outcome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mjoen, Geir; Saetre, Dag Ottar; Lie, Rolv T.; Tynes, Tore; Blaasaas, Karl Gerhard; Hannevik, Merete; Irgens, Lorentz M.

    2006-01-01

    Background:During the last decades, public concern that radiofrequency radiation (RFR) may be related to adverse reproductive outcomes has been emerging. Our objective was to assess associations between paternal occupational exposure to RFR and adverse pregnancy outcomes including birth defects using population-based data from Norway.Methods:Data on reproductive outcomes derived from the Medical Birth Registry of Norway were linked with data on paternal occupation derived from the general population censuses. An expert panel categorized occupations according to exposure. Using logistic regression, we analyzed 24 categories of birth defects as well as other adverse outcomes.Results:In the offspring of fathers most likely to have been exposed, increased risk was observed for preterm birth (odds ratio (OR): 1.08, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03, 1.15). In this group we also observed a decreased risk of cleft lip (OR: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.41, 0.97). In the medium exposed group, we observed increased risk for a category of ,other defects' (OR: 2.40, 95% CI: 1.22, 4.70), and a decreased risk for a category of ,other syndromes' (OR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.99) and upper gastrointestinal defects (OR: 0.61, 95% CI: 0.40, 0.93).Conclusion:The study is partly reassuring for occupationally exposed fathers

  14. Paternal and maternal birthweights and the risk of infant preterm birth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klebanoff, Mark A

    2008-01-01

    Increasing paternal birthweight has been associated with increased risk of fathering a preterm infant, causing speculation that a fetus programmed to grow rapidly can trigger preterm labor. Pregnancies occurring from 1974-1989 among women themselves born in the Danish Perinatal Study (1959-1961) were identified through the Population Register; obstetric records were abstracted. Paternal birthweight was obtained by linking Personal Identification Numbers of the fathers to archived midwifery records. Paternal birthweight was not associated with preterm infants overall. However, there was a significant interaction between paternal and maternal birthweights (P = .003). When the mother weighed less than 3 kg at birth, increasing paternal birthweight was associated with increased occurrence of preterm birth (P for trend = .02); paternal birthweight was unassociated with preterm birth for mothers weighing 3 kg or more at birth (P = .34). When the mother was born small, increasing paternal birthweight was associated with increased risk of preterm birth, suggesting that a fetus growing faster than its mother can accommodate might trigger preterm birth.

  15. Dangerous dads? Ecological and longitudinal analyses of paternity leave and risk for child injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laflamme, Lucie; Månsdotter, Anna; Lundberg, Michael; Magnusson, Cecilia

    2012-11-01

    In 1974, Sweden became the first country to permit fathers to take paid parental leave. Other countries are currently following suit issuing similar laws. While this reform supports the principles of the United Nations convention of the right for children to be with both parents and enshrines the ethos of gender equality, there has been little systematic examination of its potential impact on child health. Instead, there is uninformed debate that fathers may expose their children to greater risks of injury than mothers. In this Swedish national study, the authors therefore assess whether fathers' parental leave can be regarded as a more serious risk factor for child injuries than that of mothers. Nationwide register-based ecological and longitudinal studies of hospitalisation due to injury (and intoxication) in early childhood, involving the Swedish population in 1973-2009 (ecological design), and children born in 1988 and 1989 (n=118 278) (longitudinal design). An increase in fathers' share of parental leave over time was parallelled by a downward trend in child injury rates (age 0-4 years). At the individual level, the crude incidence of child injury (age 0-2 years) was lower during paternity as compared with maternity leave. This association was, however, explained by parental socio-demographic characteristics (multivariate HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.2). There is no support for the notion that paternity leave increases the risk of child injury.

  16. Paternal perception of infant sleep risks and safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Heather M; Mullins, Samantha H; Miller, Beverly K; Aitken, Mary E

    2018-04-10

    Sudden Unexpected Infant Death (SUID) results in 3400 sleep-related deaths yearly in the United States, yet caregivers' compliance with safe sleep recommendations remains less than optimal. Paternal caregiver's attitudes toward infant safe sleep messages are largely unaddressed, despite established differences between female and male caregiver perceptions. This study aimed to explore the determinants of safe sleep practices among male caregivers. Focus groups were conducted in Arkansas with male caregivers of infants ages 2-12 months to discuss infant sleep routines, parental roles, sources for safe sleep information, and messaging suggestions for safe sleep promotion. The Health Belief Model of behavior change framed a moderator guide. Transcript-based analysis was used, and data were managed using HyperRESEARCH (version 2.8.3). The transcribed data were coded to identify significant themes. Ten focus groups were conducted with 46 participants. Inconsistent adherence to safe sleep practices was reported. Participants were more likely to describe safe location (57% of participants) and supine position behaviors (42%) than an uncluttered bed environment (26%). Caregivers acknowledged the importance of recommended safe sleep behavior, but admitted to unsafe practices, such as co-sleeping and unsafe daytime sleep. Lack of perceived risk, comfort, and/or resources, and disagreement among family members about safety practices were identified as barriers. Participants voiced concerns that current advertising portrays males as incompetent caregivers. Suggestions included portraying positive images of fathers and male caregivers acting to promote safety and the incorporation of statistics about the hazards of unsafe sleep to better engage fathers. Potential distribution venues included sporting events, home improvement and/or automotive stores, and social media from trusted sites (e.g. hospitals or medical professionals). Male caregivers demonstrate some knowledge base

  17. Mate guarding in the Seychelles warbler is energetically costly and adjusted to paternity risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komdeur, J

    2001-10-22

    Males may increase their fitness through extra-pair copulations (copulations outside the pair bond) that result in extra-pair fertilizations, but also risk lost paternity when they leave their own mate unguarded. The fitness costs of cuckoldry for Seychelles warblers (Acrocephalus sechellensis) are considerable because warblers have a single-egg clutch and, given the short breeding season, no time for a successful replacement clutch. Neighbouring males are the primary threat to a male's genetic paternity. Males minimize their loss of paternity by guarding their mates to prevent them from having extra-pair copulations during their fertile period. Here, I provide experimental evidence that mate-guarding behaviour is energetically costly and that the expression of this trade-off is adjusted to paternity risk (local male density). Free-living males that were induced to reduce mate guarding spent significantly more time foraging and gained significantly better body condition than control males. The larger the reduction in mate guarding, the more pronounced was the increase in foraging and body condition (accounting for food availability). An experimental increase in paternity risk resulted in an increase in mate-guarding intensity and a decrease in foraging and body condition, and vice versa. This is examined using both cross-sectional and longitudinal data. This study on the Seychelles warbler offers experimental evidence that mate guarding is energetically costly and adjusted to paternity risk.

  18. Maternal or paternal suicide and offspring's psychiatric and suicide-attempt hospitalization risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuramoto, S Janet; Stuart, Elizabeth A; Runeson, Bo; Lichtenstein, Paul; Långström, Niklas; Wilcox, Holly C

    2010-11-01

    We examined whether the risk for psychiatric morbidity requiring inpatient care was higher for offspring who experienced parental suicide, compared with offspring of fatal accident decedents, and whether the association varied according to the deceased parent's gender. Children and adolescents (0-17 years of age) who experienced maternal (N = 5600) or paternal (N = 17,847) suicide in 1973-2003 in Sweden were identified by using national, longitudinal, population-based registries. Cox regression modeling was used to compare psychiatric hospitalization risks among offspring of suicide decedents and propensity score-matched offspring of accident decedents. Offspring of maternal suicide decedents had increased risk of suicide-attempt hospitalization, after controlling for psychiatric hospitalization for decedents and surviving parents, compared with offspring of maternal accidental decedents. Offspring of paternal suicide decedents had similar risk of suicide-attempt hospitalization, compared with offspring of accident decedents, but had increased risk of hospitalization attributable to depressive and anxiety disorders. The magnitude of risks for offspring suicide-attempt hospitalization was greater for those who experienced maternal versus paternal suicide, compared with their respective control offspring (interaction P = .05; offspring of maternal decedents, adjusted hazard ratio: 1.80 [95% confidence interval: 1.19-2.74]; offspring of paternal decedents, adjusted hazard ratio: 1.14 [95% confidence interval: 0.96-1.35]). Maternal suicide is associated with increased risk of suicide-attempt hospitalization for offspring, beyond the risk associated with maternal accidental death. However, paternal suicide is not associated with suicide-attempt hospitalization. Future studies should examine factors that might differ between offspring who experience maternal versus paternal suicide, including genetic or early environmental determinants.

  19. Meta-analysis of paternal age and schizophrenia risk in male versus female offspring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Brian; Messias, Erick; Miettunen, Jouko; Alaräisänen, Antti; Järvelin, Marjo-Riita; Koponen, Hannu; Räsänen, Pirkko; Isohanni, Matti; Kirkpatrick, Brian

    2011-09-01

    Advanced paternal age (APA) is a reported risk factor for schizophrenia in the offspring. We performed a meta-analysis of this association, considering the effect of gender and study design. We identified articles by searching Pub Med, PsychInfo, ISI, and EMBASE, and the reference lists of identified studies. Previously unpublished data from the Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort (NFBC 1966) study were also included. There were 6 cohort studies and 6 case-control studies that met the inclusion criteria. In both study designs, there was a significant increase in risk of schizophrenia in the offspring of older fathers (≥30) compared to a reference paternal age of 25-29, with no gender differences. The relative risk (RR) in the oldest fathers (≥50) was 1.66 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.46-1.89, P APA (≥30) and younger paternal age (<25) increase the risk of schizophrenia; younger paternal age may be associated with an increased risk in males but not females. This risk factor increases the risk of schizophrenia as much as any single candidate gene of risk. The mechanism of these associations is not known and may differ for older and younger fathers.

  20. Mutation risk associated with paternal and maternal age in a cohort of retinoblastoma survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, Melissa B; Hudgins, Louanne; Balise, Raymond R; Abramson, David H; Kleinerman, Ruth A

    2012-07-01

    Autosomal dominant conditions are known to be associated with advanced paternal age, and it has been suggested that retinoblastoma (Rb) also exhibits a paternal age effect due to the paternal origin of most new germline RB1 mutations. To further our understanding of the association of parental age and risk of de novo germline RB1 mutations, we evaluated the effect of parental age in a cohort of Rb survivors in the United States. A cohort of 262 Rb patients was retrospectively identified at one institution, and telephone interviews were conducted with parents of 160 survivors (65.3%). We classified Rb survivors into three groups: those with unilateral Rb were classified as sporadic if they had no or unknown family history of Rb, those with bilateral Rb were classified as having a de novo germline mutation if they had no or unknown family history of Rb, and those with unilateral or bilateral Rb, who had a family history of Rb, were classified as familial. We built two sets of nested logistic regression models to detect an increased odds of the de novo germline mutation classification related to older parental age compared to sporadic and familial Rb classifications. The modeling strategy evaluated effects of continuous increasing maternal and paternal age and 5-year age increases adjusted for the age of the other parent. Mean maternal ages for survivors classified as having de novo germline mutations and sporadic Rb were similar (28.3 and 28.5, respectively) as were mean paternal ages (31.9 and 31.2, respectively), and all were significantly higher than the weighted general US population means. In contrast, maternal and paternal ages for familial Rb did not differ significantly from the weighted US general population means. Although we noted no significant differences between mean maternal and paternal ages between each of the three Rb classification groups, we found increased odds of a survivor being in the de novo germline mutation group for each 5-year increase in

  1. Risk of Adverse Pregnancy Outcome After Paternal Exposure to Methotrexate Within 90 Days Before Pregnancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eck, Lasse Karlsen; Jensen, Thomas Bo; Mastrogiannis, Dimitrios

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To study the association between paternal exposure to methotrexate within the 90-day period before pregnancy and congenital malformations and stillbirth in the offspring. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide register study. Our cohort consisted of all live births in Denmark between 1997...... group and no increased risk of preterm birth (adjusted OR 1.31, 95% CI 0.66-2.59) among the children from exposed fathers. CONCLUSION: We found no association between paternal exposure to methotrexate within 90 days before pregnancy and congenital malformations, stillbirths, or preterm birth. Available...

  2. Mate guarding in the Seychelles warbler is energetically costly and adjusted to paternity risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Komdeur, Jan

    2001-01-01

    Males may increase their fitness through extra-pair copulations (copulations outside the pair bond) that result in extra-pair fertilizations, but also risk lost paternity when they leave their own mate unguarded. The fitness costs of cuckoldry for Seychelles warblers (Acrocephalus sechellensis) are

  3. Paternal Depression and Risk for Child Neglect in Father-Involved Families of Young Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Shawna J.; Taylor, Catherine A.; Bellamy, Jennifer L.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To examine the association of paternal depression with risk for parental neglect of young children. Study design: The sample was derived from a birth cohort study of 1,089 families in which both biological parents resided in the home when the target child was 3- and 5-years old. Prospective analyses examined the contribution of paternal…

  4. ADHD and DAT1: Further evidence of paternal over-transmission of risk alleles and haplotype

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hawi, Z.; Kent, L.; Hill, M.; Anney, R.J.; Brookes, K. J.; Barry, E.; Franke, B.; Banaschewski, T.; Buitelaar, J.; Ebstein, R.; Miranda, A.; Oades, R.D.; Roeyers, H.; Rothenberger, A.; Sergeant, J.A.; Sonuga-Barke, E.; Steinhausen, H.C.; Faraone, S.V.; Asherson, P.; Gill, M.

    2009-01-01

    We [Hawi et al. (2005); Am J Hum Genet 77:958-965] reported paternal over-transmission of risk alleles in some ADHD-associated genes. This was particularly clear in the case of the DAT1 30-UTR VNTR. In the current investigation, we analyzed three new sample comprising of 1,248 ADHD nuclear families

  5. ADHD and DAT1: further evidence of paternal over-transmission of risk alleles and haplotype.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hawi, Z.; Kent, L.; Hill, M.; Anney, R.J.; Brookes, K.J.; Barry, E.; Franke, B.; Banaschewski, T.; Buitelaar, J.K.; Ebstein, R.; Miranda, A.; Oades, R.D.; Roeyers, H.; Rothenberger, A.; Sergeant, J.A.; Sonuga-Barke, E.J.S.; Steinhausen, H.C.; Faraone, S.V.; Asherson, P.; Gill, M.

    2010-01-01

    We [Hawi et al. (2005); Am J Hum Genet 77:958-965] reported paternal over-transmission of risk alleles in some ADHD-associated genes. This was particularly clear in the case of the DAT1 3'-UTR VNTR. In the current investigation, we analyzed three new sample comprising of 1,248 ADHD nuclear families

  6. Maternal and Paternal Height and the Risk of Preeclampsia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yunsung; Magnus, Per

    2018-04-01

    The etiology of preeclampsia is unknown. Tall women have been found to have lower incidence of preeclampsia. This points to a possible biological causal effect but may be because of socioeconomic confounding. We used paternal height as an unexposed control to examine confounding. The MoBa (Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study) was used to extract data on parental heights, maternal prepregnancy weight, other background factors, and pregnancy outcomes for 99 968 singleton births. Multiple logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios for preeclampsia according to parental height. The adjusted odds ratio for preeclampsia was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.66-0.82) for women >172 cm as compared with women 186 cm was 1.03 (95% CI, 0.93-1.15) compared with men <178 cm. The association between maternal height and preeclampsia is unlikely to be because of confounding by familial, socioeconomic factors or by fetal genes related to height. The observed association between maternal height and preeclampsia merits further investigation. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

  7. To eat or not to eat : egg-based assessment of paternity triggers fine-tuned decisions about filial cannibalism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mehlis, Marion; Bakker, Theo C. M.; Engqvist, Leif; Frommen, Joachim G.

    2010-01-01

    Filial cannibalism occurs in many animal species ranging from insects to mammals, and is especially well described in teleost fishes. Numerous causes may lead to this behaviour, e. g. certainty of paternity. However, the cues males use to assess their paternity often remain unknown. One possible way

  8. Paternal sperm DNA methylation associated with early signs of autism risk in an autism-enriched cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feinberg, Jason I; Bakulski, Kelly M; Jaffe, Andrew E; Tryggvadottir, Rakel; Brown, Shannon C; Goldman, Lynn R; Croen, Lisa A; Hertz-Picciotto, Irva; Newschaffer, Craig J; Fallin, M Daniele; Feinberg, Andrew P

    2015-08-01

    Epigenetic mechanisms such as altered DNA methylation have been suggested to play a role in autism, beginning with the classical association of Prader-Willi syndrome, an imprinting disorder, with autistic features. Here we tested for the relationship of paternal sperm DNA methylation with autism risk in offspring, examining an enriched-risk cohort of fathers of autistic children. We examined genome-wide DNA methylation (DNAm) in paternal semen biosamples obtained from an autism spectrum disorder (ASD) enriched-risk pregnancy cohort, the Early Autism Risk Longitudinal Investigation (EARLI) cohort, to estimate associations between sperm DNAm and prospective ASD development, using a 12-month ASD symptoms assessment, the Autism Observation Scale for Infants (AOSI). We analysed methylation data from 44 sperm samples run on the CHARM 3.0 array, which contains over 4 million probes (over 7 million CpG sites), including 30 samples also run on the Illumina Infinium HumanMethylation450 (450K) BeadChip platform (∼485 000 CpG sites). We also examined associated regions in an independent sample of post-mortem human brain ASD and control samples for which Illumina 450K DNA methylation data were available. Using region-based statistical approaches, we identified 193 differentially methylated regions (DMRs) in paternal sperm with a family-wise empirical P-value [family-wise error rate (FWER)] Autism Observational Scale for Infants (AOSI) at 12 months of age in offspring. The DMRs clustered near genes involved in developmental processes, including many genes in the SNORD family, within the Prader-Willi syndrome gene cluster. These results were consistent among the 75 probes on the Illumina 450K array that cover AOSI-associated DMRs from CHARM. Further, 18 of 75 (24%) 450K array probes showed consistent differences in the cerebellums of autistic individuals compared with controls. These data suggest that epigenetic differences in paternal sperm may contribute to autism risk in

  9. Advanced paternal age increases the risk of schizophrenia and obsessive-compulsive disorder in a Chinese Han population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yuejing; Liu, Xiang; Luo, Hongrong; Deng, Wei; Zhao, Gaofeng; Wang, Qiang; Zhang, Lan; Ma, Xiaohong; Liu, Xiehe; Murray, Robin A; Collier, David A; Li, Tao

    2012-08-15

    Using the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV, patient and non-patient version (SCID-P/NP), this study investigated 351 patients with schizophrenia, 122 with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), and 238 unrelated healthy volunteers in a Chinese Han population. The relative risks posed by advanced paternal age for schizophrenia and OCD in offspring were computed under logistic regression analyses and adjusted for the participant's sex, age and co-parent age at birth. Compared to the offspring with paternal age of 25-29 years old, the relative risks rose from 2.660 to 10.183 in the paternal age range of 30-34 and ≥35. The relative risks for OCD increased from 2.225 to 5.413 in 30-34 and ≥35. For offspring with paternal age of maternal age and risk for schizophrenia/OCD was not seen. Interaction analysis showed an interaction effect between paternal age and maternal age at birth. Such a tendency of risk affected by parental age for schizophrenia and OCD existed after splitting out the data of early onset patients. Sex-specific analyses found that the relative risks for schizophrenia with paternal age of 30-34 and ≥35 in male offspring were 2.407 and 10.893, and in female offspring were 3.080 and 9.659. The relative risks for OCD with paternal age of 30-34 and ≥35 in male offspring were 3.493 and 7.373, and in female offspring 2.005 and 4.404. The mean paternal age of schizophrenia/OCD patients born before the early 1980s was much greater than that of patients who were born after then. The findings illustrated that advanced paternal age is associated with increased risk for both schizophrenia and OCD in a Chinese Han population, prominently when paternal age is over 35. Biological and non-biological mechanisms may both be involved in the effects of advanced paternal age on schizophrenia and OCD. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  10. Adverse childhood experiences and risk of paternity in teen pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anda, Robert F; Chapman, Daniel P; Felitti, Vincent J; Edwards, Valerie; Williamson, David F; Croft, Janet B; Giles, Wayne H

    2002-07-01

    Few studies have investigated risk factors that predispose males to be involved in teen pregnancies. To provide new information on such factors, we examined the relationships of eight common adverse childhood experiences to a male's risk of impregnating a teenager. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using questionnaire responses from 7399 men who visited a primary care clinic of a large health maintenance organization in California. Data included age of the youngest female ever impregnated; the man's own age at the time; his history of childhood emotional, physical, or sexual abuse; having a battered mother; parental separation or divorce; and having household members who were substance abusers, mentally ill, or criminals. Odds ratios (ORs) for the risk of involvement in a teen pregnancy were adjusted for age, race, and education. At least one adverse childhood experience was reported by 63% of participants, and 34% had at least two adverse childhood experiences; 19% of men had been involved in a teen pregnancy. Each adverse childhood experience was positively associated with impregnating a teenager, with ORs ranging from 1.2 (sexual abuse) to 1.8 (criminal in home). We found strong graded relationships (P teen pregnancy for each of four birth cohorts during the last century. Compared with males with no adverse childhood experiences, a male with at least five adverse childhood experiences had an OR of 2.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.0, 3.4) for impregnating a teenager. The magnitude of the ORs for the adverse childhood experiences was reduced 64-100% by adjustment for potential intermediate variables (age at first intercourse, number of sexual partners, having a sexually transmitted disease, and alcohol or drug abuse) that also exhibited a strong graded relationship to adverse childhood experiences. Adverse childhood experiences have an important relationship to male involvement in teen pregnancy. This relationship has persisted throughout four

  11. Advanced paternal age is a risk factor for schizophrenia in Iranians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mokri Bahareh

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Since 1958 many, but not all studies have demonstrated that paternal age is a risk factor for schizophrenia. There may be many different explanations for differences between studies, including study design, sample size, collection criteria, heterogeneity and the confounding effects of environmental factors that can for example perturb epigenetic programming and lead to an increase in disease risk. The small number of children in Western families makes risk comparisons between siblings born at different paternal ages difficult. In contrast, more Eastern families have children both at early and later periods of life. In the present study, a cross-sectional population study in an Iranian population was performed to compare frequency of schizophrenia in younger offspring (that is, older paternal age versus older offspring. Methods A total of 220 patients with the diagnosis of schizophrenia (cases from both psychiatric hospitals and private clinics and 220 individuals from other hospital wards (controls, matched for sex and age were recruited for this study. Patients with neurological problem, substance abuse, mental retardation and mood disorder were excluded from both groups. Results Birth rank comparisons revealed that 35% vs 24% of the cases vs the controls were in the third or upper birth rank (P = 0.01. Also, the mean age of fathers at birth in case group (30 ± 6.26 years was significantly more than the control group (26.45 ± 5.64 years; P = 0.0001. The age of 76 fathers at birth in case group was over 32 versus 33 fathers in control group. Individuals whose fathers' age was more than 32 (at birth were at higher risk (2.77 times for schizophrenia versus others (P P = 0.02. Logistic regression analysis suggests that maternal age is less likely to be involved in the higher risk of schizophrenia than advanced parental age. Discussion This study demonstrates a relationship between paternal age and schizophrenia in large

  12. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  13. Paternal and maternal transition to parenthood: the risk of postpartum depression and parenting stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Stella Epifanio

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Transition to parenthood represents an important life event increasing vulnerability to psychological disorders. Postpartum depression and parenting distress are the most common psychological disturbances and a growing scientific evidence suggests that both mothers and fathers are involved in this developmental crisis. This paper aims to explore maternal and paternal experience of transition to parenthood in terms of parenting distress and risk of postpartum depression. Seventy-five couples of first-time parents were invited to compile the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale and the Parenting Stress Index-Short Form in the first month of children life. Study sample reported very high levels of parenting distress and a risk of postpartum depression in 20.8% of mothers and 5.7% of fathers. No significant correlation between parenting distress and the risk of postpartum depression emerged, both in mothers than in fathers group while maternal distress levels are related to paternal one. The first month after partum represents a critical phase of parents life and it could be considered a developmental crisis characterized by anxiety, stress and mood alterations that could have important repercussions on the child psycho-physical development.

  14. Effects of paternal age and offspring cognitive ability in early adulthood on the risk of schizophrenia and related disorders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Holger J; Pedersen, Carsten B; Nordentoft, Merete

    2014-01-01

    Advanced paternal age (APA) and intelligence quotient (IQ) are both associated with the risk of schizophrenia spectrum disorder (SSD) in young adult offspring. We hypothesized that the offspring SSD risk gradient associated with paternal age is mediated by offspring IQ. We investigated joint...... the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of SSD. During the follow-up, 528 men developed SSD (incidence rate [IR] 5.2 and 8.6 per 10,000 person-years in the first and second cohorts, respectively). APA was associated with higher risk of SSD (IRR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.10-1.60 per a ten-year increase in paternal age). A higher...... IQ was associated with lower SSD risk (IRR, 0.68; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63-0.74 per one SD increase). The IR of SSD was higher among persons who were draft-exempt for health reasons (APA-related SSD (individuals...

  15. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  16. Influence of paternal age on perinatal outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurley, Emily G; DeFranco, Emily A

    2017-11-01

    There is an increasing trend to delay childbearing to advanced parental age. Increased risks of advanced maternal age and assisted reproductive technologies are widely accepted. There are limited data regarding advanced paternal age. To adequately counsel patients on risk, more research regarding advanced paternal age is necessary. We sought to determine the influence of paternal age on perinatal outcomes, and to assess whether this influence differs between pregnancies achieved spontaneously and those achieved with assisted reproductive technology. A population-based retrospective cohort study of all live births in Ohio from 2006 through 2012 was completed. Data were evaluated to determine if advanced paternal age is associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes in pregnancies. The analysis was stratified by status of utilization of assisted reproductive technology. Generalized linear regression models assessed the association of paternal age on pregnancy complications in assisted reproductive technology and spontaneously conceived pregnancies, after adjusting for maternal age, race, multifetal gestation, and Medicaid status, using Stata software (Stata, Release 12; StataCorp, College Station, TX). Paternal age was documented in 82.2% of 1,034,552 live births in Ohio during the 7-year study period. Paternal age ranged from 12-87 years, with a median of 30 (interquartile range, 26-35) years. Maternal age ranged from 11-62 years, with a median of 27 (interquartile range, 22-31) years. The use of assisted reproductive technology in live births increased as paternal age increased: 0.1% 60 years, P risk factors, increased paternal age was not associated with a significant increase in the rate of preeclampsia, preterm birth, fetal growth restriction, congenital anomaly, genetic disorder, or neonatal intensive care unit admission. The influence of paternal age on pregnancy outcomes was similar in pregnancies achieved with and without assisted reproductive

  17. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  18. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  19. Both paternal exercise and healthy diet are required to protect offspring from high fat diet-induced obesity and type 2 diabetes risk in mice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Objective: Paternal eating and physical activity behaviors peri-conception may influence offspring obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk. A recent study showed that paternal exercise increased offspring susceptibility to obesity when the offspring consumed a high fat (HF) diet. However, it is not y...

  20. Infant Mortality Risk and Paternity Certainty Are Associated with Postnatal Maternal Behavior toward Adult Male Mountain Gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stacy Rosenbaum

    Full Text Available Sexually selected infanticide is an important source of infant mortality in many mammalian species. In species with long-term male-female associations, females may benefit from male protection against infanticidal outsiders. We tested whether mountain gorilla (Gorilla beringei beringei mothers in single and multi-male groups monitored by the Dian Fossey Gorilla Fund's Karisoke Research Center actively facilitated interactions between their infants and a potentially protective male. We also evaluated the criteria mothers in multi-male groups used to choose a preferred male social partner. In single male groups, where infanticide risk and paternity certainty are high, females with infants <1 year old spent more time near and affiliated more with males than females without young infants. In multi-male groups, where infanticide rates and paternity certainty are lower, mothers with new infants exhibited few behavioral changes toward males. The sole notable change was that females with young infants proportionally increased their time near males they previously spent little time near when compared to males they had previously preferred, perhaps to encourage paternity uncertainty and deter aggression. Rank was a much better predictor of females' social partner choice than paternity. Older infants (2-3 years in multi-male groups mirrored their mothers' preferences for individual male social partners; 89% spent the most time in close proximity to the male their mother had spent the most time near when they were <1 year old. Observed discrepancies between female behavior in single and multi-male groups likely reflect different levels of postpartum intersexual conflict; in groups where paternity certainty and infanticide risk are both high, male-female interests align and females behave accordingly. This highlights the importance of considering individual and group-level variation when evaluating intersexual conflict across the reproductive cycle.

  1. Infant Mortality Risk and Paternity Certainty Are Associated with Postnatal Maternal Behavior toward Adult Male Mountain Gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenbaum, Stacy; Hirwa, Jean Paul; Silk, Joan B.; Vigilant, Linda; Stoinski, Tara S.

    2016-01-01

    Sexually selected infanticide is an important source of infant mortality in many mammalian species. In species with long-term male-female associations, females may benefit from male protection against infanticidal outsiders. We tested whether mountain gorilla (Gorilla beringei beringei) mothers in single and multi-male groups monitored by the Dian Fossey Gorilla Fund’s Karisoke Research Center actively facilitated interactions between their infants and a potentially protective male. We also evaluated the criteria mothers in multi-male groups used to choose a preferred male social partner. In single male groups, where infanticide risk and paternity certainty are high, females with infants <1 year old spent more time near and affiliated more with males than females without young infants. In multi-male groups, where infanticide rates and paternity certainty are lower, mothers with new infants exhibited few behavioral changes toward males. The sole notable change was that females with young infants proportionally increased their time near males they previously spent little time near when compared to males they had previously preferred, perhaps to encourage paternity uncertainty and deter aggression. Rank was a much better predictor of females’ social partner choice than paternity. Older infants (2–3 years) in multi-male groups mirrored their mothers’ preferences for individual male social partners; 89% spent the most time in close proximity to the male their mother had spent the most time near when they were <1 year old. Observed discrepancies between female behavior in single and multi-male groups likely reflect different levels of postpartum intersexual conflict; in groups where paternity certainty and infanticide risk are both high, male-female interests align and females behave accordingly. This highlights the importance of considering individual and group-level variation when evaluating intersexual conflict across the reproductive cycle. PMID:26863300

  2. Effects of Paternal Predation Risk and Rearing Environment on Maternal Investment and Development of Defensive Responses in the Offspring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Jessica

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Detecting past experiences with predators of a potential mate informs a female about prevailing ecological threats, in addition to stress-induced phenotypes that may be disseminated to offspring. We examined whether prior exposure of a male rat to a predator (cat) odor influences the attraction of a female toward a male, subsequent mother–infant interactions and the development of defensive (emotional) responses in the offspring. Females displayed less interest in males that had experienced predator odor. Mothers that reared young in larger, seminaturalistic housing provided more licking and grooming and active arched back-nursing behavior toward their offspring compared with dams housed in standard housing, although some effects interacted with paternal experience. Paternal predation risk and maternal rearing environment revealed sex-dependent differences in offspring wean weight, juvenile social interactions, and anxiety-like behavior in adolescence. Additionally, paternal predator experience and maternal housing independently affected variations in crf gene promoter acetylation and crf gene expression in response to an acute stressor in offspring. Our results show for the first time in mammals that variation among males in their predator encounters may contribute to stable behavioral variation among females in preference for mates and maternal care, even when the females are not directly exposed to predator threat. Furthermore, when offspring were exposed to the same threat experienced by the father, hypothalamic crf gene regulation was influenced by paternal olfactory experience and early housing. These results, together with our previous findings, suggest that paternal stress exposure and maternal rearing conditions can influence maternal behavior and the development of defensive responses in offspring. PMID:27896313

  3. Is maternal transmission of coronary heart disease risk stronger than paternal transmission?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinra, S; Davey Smith, G; Okasha, M; McCarron, P; McEwen, J

    2003-08-01

    To test whether intergenerational transmission of coronary heart disease (CHD) to offspring is greater from the mother than from the father, the association between parental history of CHD and coronary mortality in male offspring was examined. Prospective cohort study with 43 years of follow up. University of Glasgow. Male students (n = 8402) aged 16-30 years when examined in 1948 to 1968. Fatal CHD. Of the 8402 men studied, 615 (7.3%) reported a history of CHD in at least one of the parents: 479 (5.8%) for fathers only, 124 (1.6%) for mothers only, and a further 12 (0.2%) for both their parents. During follow up, 373 (4.4%) men died of CHD. Parental history of disease was associated with fatal CHD and controlling for personal risk factors such as cigarette smoking, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, and father's social class did not attenuate this relation. The fully adjusted hazard ratios were 1.53 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08 to 2.18), 1.19 (95% CI 0.61 to 2.32), and 8.65 (95% CI 2.65 to 28.31) for father only, mother only, and both parents with CHD, respectively, compared with men whose parents did not have CHD. There was some evidence for interaction between parental histories (p = 0.049), with particularly high risk if both parents reported a history of CHD. This study found no differential transmission of CHD. Paternal history of CHD was at least as important as maternal history. Data from other comparable cohorts provide no consistent evidence of differential transmission. Intergenerational transmission of CHD does not appear to have differential effects between mothers and fathers.

  4. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  5. Paternalism and Antipaternalism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauro Cardoso Simões

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1677-2954.2011v10n1p165 This paper aims to examine the relation between paternalism and antipaternalism. The original intention is disable the arguments seeking to justify acceptance on the part of Mill of moral and legal paternalism. The work will also investigate the concern milleans with the concepts of autonomy and self-development, positioning itself for a reading of Mill as a thinker who advocates a weak version of paternalism. This research suggests, moreover, the communication with the interpreters of contemporary Mill, which will assess the impact of their ideas on the current dialogue on the liberty and paternalism.

  6. Preconception paternal occupational radiation exposure and the risk of childhood leukaemia: a paradox within an enigma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berry, R.J. [Westlakes Research Institute, Cumbria (United Kingdom)

    1995-02-01

    A brief review is given of the evidence leading to the theory that preconception paternal occupational radiation exposure is a factor involved in the incidence of childhood leukaemia near nuclear facilities. Evidence is also presented which casts doubt on this theory (UK).

  7. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  8. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  9. Maternal and paternal age at delivery, birth order, and risk of childhood onset type 1 diabetes: population based cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stene, Lars C; Magnus, Per; Lie, Rolv T; Søvik, Oddmund; Joner, Geir

    2001-01-01

    Objective To estimate the associations of maternal and paternal age at delivery and of birth order with the risk of childhood onset type 1 diabetes. Design Cohort study by record linkage of the medical birth registry and the national childhood diabetes registry in Norway. Setting Norway. Subjects All live births in Norway between 1974 and 1998 (1.4 million people) were followed for a maximum of 15 years, contributing 8.2 million person years of observation during 1989-98. 1824 cases of type 1 diabetes diagnosed between 1989 and 1998 were identified. Main outcome measures Incidence of type 1 diabetes. Results There was no association between maternal age at delivery and type 1 diabetes among firstborn children, but among fourthborn children there was a 43.2% increase in incidence of diabetes for each five year increase in maternal age (95% confidence interval 6.4% to 92.6%). Each increase in birth order was associated with a 17.9% reduction in incidence (3.2% to 30.4%) when maternal age was 20-24 years, but the association was weaker when maternal age was 30 years or more. Paternal age was not associated with type 1 diabetes after maternal age was adjusted for. Conclusions Intrauterine factors and early life environment may influence the risk of type 1 diabetes. The relation of maternal age and birth order to risk of type 1 diabetes is complex. What is already known on this topicMaternal age at birth is positively associated with risk of childhood onset type 1 diabetesStudies of the effect of birth order on risk of type 1 diabetes have given inconsistent resultsWhat does this study add?In a national cohort, risk of diabetes in firstborn children was not associated with maternal ageIncreasing maternal age was a risk factor in children born second or laterThe strength of the association increased with increasing birth order PMID:11509426

  10. Paternal exposure and counselling: experience of a Teratology Information Service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Santis, Marco; Cesari, Elena; Cavaliere, Annafranca; Ligato, Maria Serena; Nobili, Elena; Visconti, Daniela; Caruso, Alessandro

    2008-09-01

    We describe paternal exposure and counselling in a selected population calling to an Italian Teratology Information Service (TIS). The majority of callers asked for paternal drug exposure (76%, drugs except chemotherapy) and treatment for cancer (17%, chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy). Others asked for exposure to diagnostic radiations (4%), recreational drugs (2%) and occupational chemicals (1%). Among paternal drugs neurological compounds, immunosuppressive drugs and antiviral agents were the main reasons for calling. In humans, there are no evidences of birth defects after paternal exposures, but to minimize any possible risk, counselling in men exposed to radio and chemotherapy should recommend delaying conception for at least 3 months after the end of the therapy. Male patients treated with drugs, whose teratogenic potential has been well assessed or suspected for maternal exposure, should be advised to practice effective birth control during therapy and up to one or two cycles of spermatogenesis and to avoid semen contact with vaginal walls during first trimester of pregnancy.

  11. Maternal and paternal psychosocial risk factors for clinical depression in a Norwegian community sample of adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agerup, T; Lydersen, S; Wallander, J; Sund, A M

    2015-01-01

    Parental characteristics can increase the risk of the development of adolescent depression. In this study, we focus on the parental factors of parents in a non-intact relationship, dissatisfaction with personal economy, physical illness or disability, and internalizing and externalizing problems. The aim is to examine which of these parental risk factors, separately for mothers and fathers, are associated with clinical depression in adolescents in a community sample. In the Youth and Mental Health study, 345 adolescents (mean age ± standard deviation 15.0 ± 0.6 years, range 13.8-16.6 years; 72.5% girls) and their parents (79% at least one parent) completed questionnaires and the diagnostic interview Kiddie-Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia-Present and Lifetime version (K-SADS-PL). Adolescents were classified into current major depressive disorder or dysthymia (n = 46), depression not otherwise specified (n = 48), or no depression (n = 251). The parental risk factors were based on interview and the Adult Self-Report. Risk factors associated with mothers (n = 267) and fathers (n = 167) were separately analyzed using ordinal logistic regression with current depression category as the dependent variable. All analyses were adjusted for youth sex and age. Mothers' economical dissatisfaction, physical illness/disability, internalizing problems and externalizing problems were associated with adolescent current depression (P ≤ 0.02). Adjusting for all other factors, only mothers' internalizing problems (P depression. Fathers' risk factors were not associated with adolescent depression. Characteristics of mothers are associated with adolescent current depression. Mothers' internalizing problems is independently strongly associated with increased risk of current adolescent depression. Clinicians should assess mothers' mental health when treating depressed adolescents.

  12. Assessing the economic impact of paternal involvement: a comparison of the generalized linear model versus decision analysis trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salihu, Hamisu M; Salemi, Jason L; Nash, Michelle C; Chandler, Kristen; Mbah, Alfred K; Alio, Amina P

    2014-08-01

    Lack of paternal involvement has been shown to be associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes, including infant morbidity and mortality, but the impact on health care costs is unknown. Various methodological approaches have been used in cost minimization and cost effectiveness analyses and it remains unclear how cost estimates vary according to the analytic strategy adopted. We illustrate a methodological comparison of decision analysis modeling and generalized linear modeling (GLM) techniques using a case study that assesses the cost-effectiveness of potential father involvement interventions. We conducted a 12-year retrospective cohort study using a statewide enhanced maternal-infant database that contains both clinical and nonclinical information. A missing name for the father on the infant's birth certificate was used as a proxy for lack of paternal involvement, the main exposure of this study. Using decision analysis modeling and GLM, we compared all infant inpatient hospitalization costs over the first year of life. Costs were calculated from hospital charges using department-level cost-to-charge ratios and were adjusted for inflation. In our cohort of 2,243,891 infants, 9.2% had a father uninvolved during pregnancy. Lack of paternal involvement was associated with higher rates of preterm birth, small-for-gestational age, and infant morbidity and mortality. Both analytic approaches estimate significantly higher per-infant costs for father uninvolved pregnancies (decision analysis model: $1,827, GLM: $1,139). This paper provides sufficient evidence that healthcare costs could be significantly reduced through enhanced father involvement during pregnancy, and buttresses the call for a national program to involve fathers in antenatal care.

  13. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  14. Paternal age at birth and the risk of obesity in young adulthood: a register-based birth cohort study of Norwegian males.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eriksen, Willy; Sundet, Jon M; Tambs, Kristian

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between paternal age at birth and the risk of obesity in young adulthood. Data from the medical birth register of Norway were linked with register data from the Norwegian National Conscript Service and the national statistics agency, Statistics Norway. This study used the data on 346,609 registered males who were born at term in single birth without physical anomalies during 1967-1984 and who were examined at the time of the mandatory military conscription (age 18-20 years). The relationship between paternal age at birth and the occurrence of obesity (body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30.0 kg/m(2) ) at conscription was examined using a multinomial logistic regression analysis with BMI birth but did not increase (P = 0.52) with maternal age at birth. Men born when their fathers were 50 years or older had a 55% (95% confidence interval (CI): 14%, 110%) higher relative risk of obesity than men born when their fathers were younger than 20 years of age, after adjustment for age at conscription, birth order, birth year, maternal age at birth, the mother's total number of children, and maternal and paternal education levels. The risk of obesity in young Norwegian men increases with advancing paternal age at birth but does not increase with advancing maternal age at birth. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  16. Missing paternal demographics: A novel indicator for identifying high risk population of adverse pregnancy outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen Shi

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background One of every 6 United Status birth certificates contains no information on fathers. There might be important differences in the pregnancy outcomes between mothers with versus those without partner information. The object of this study was to assess whether and to what extent outcomes in pregnant women who did not have partner information differ from those who had. Methods We carried out a population-based retrospective cohort study based on the registry data in the United States for the period of 1995–1997, which was a matched multiple birth file (only twins were included in the current analysis. We divided the study subjects into three groups according to the availability of partner information: available, partly missing, and totally missing. We compared the distribution of maternal characteristics, maternal morbidity, labor and delivery complications, obstetric interventions, preterm birth, fetal growth restriction, low birth weight, congenital anomalies, fetal death, neonatal death, post-neonatal death, and neonatal morbidity among three study groups. Results There were 304466 twins included in our study. Mothers whose partner's information was partly missing and (especially totally missing tended to be younger, of black race, unmarried, with less education, smoking cigarette during pregnancy, and with inadequate prenatal care. The rates of preterm birth, fetal growth restriction, low birth weight, Apgar score Conclusions Mothers whose partner's information was partly and (especially totally missing are at higher risk of adverse pregnant outcomes, and clinicians and public health workers should be alerted to this important social factor.

  17. Paternal occupational exposure to pesticides or herbicides as risk factors for cancer in children and young adults: a case-control study from the North of England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, Mark S; Hammal, Donna M; Dorak, M Tevfik; McNally, Richard J Q; Parker, Louise

    2006-01-01

    Researchers in numerous studies have suggested that preconception paternal occupational exposures to various substances, including pesticides and herbicides, may be involved in the etiology of childhood cancers. Using data from the Northern Region Young Persons' Malignant Disease Registry, the authors investigated whether paternal occupations likely to involve such exposures, as recorded at the time of a child's birth, were associated with children's cancer risk. The authors matched cases (n = 4,723), on sex and year of birth, to controls from 2 independent sources: (1) all other patients from the registry with a different cancer and (2) 100 cancer-free individuals per case from the Cumbrian Births Database. An inverse association existed, particularly in males, between lymphoid leukemia and paternal occupations with likely exposures to pesticides and/or herbicides. However, this was not significant after stratifying by residential status (urban versus rural). Results do not support a role for preconception paternal occupational exposures to pesticides or herbicides in the etiology of childhood cancer.

  18. Comparison of Health and Safety Executive and Cumbrian birth cohort studies of risk of leukaemia/non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in relation to paternal preconceptional irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dickinson, H O; Hodgson, J T; Parker, L

    2003-01-01

    In 1993, a case-control study by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) assessed the risk of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (LNHL) among children of fathers employed at the Sellafield nuclear installation in relation to paternal preconceptional irradiation (PPI). It concluded that the statistical association between risk of LNHL and PPI was confined to children born in the village of Seascale, where the dose-response was extremely high and very significant. In contrast, in 2002, a Cumbrian birth cohort study, investigating largely the same cases, concluded that this statistical association was not significantly different among children born inside and outside Seascale and estimated the dose-response inside Seascale to be much lower. This review makes a detailed comparison of the two studies, considering their design, data and analyses. The differences between their findings are due to: (i) differences in the distribution of offspring-years which are differential with respect to dose category and Seascale birth status, (ii) a non-Seascale high-dose case included in the Cumbrian but not the HSE study, (iii) differences between analyses using categorical and continuous PPI dose and (iv) the presence of Seascale controls with PPI over 200 mSv in the Cumbrian but not the HSE study

  19. Comparison of Health and Safety Executive and Cumbrian birth cohort studies of risk of leukaemia/non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in relation to paternal preconceptional irradiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dickinson, H O [North of England Children' s Cancer Research Unit, Paediatric and Lifecourse Epidemiology Research Group, Sir James Spence Institute of Child Health, University of Newcastle, Royal Victoria Infirmary, Queen Victoria Road, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 4LP (United Kingdom); Hodgson, J T [Epidemiology and Medical Statistics Unit, Health and Safety Executive, Magdalen House (room 241), Stanley Precinct, Bootle L20 3QZ (United Kingdom); Parker, L [North of England Children' s Cancer Research Unit, Paediatric and Lifecourse Epidemiology Research Group, Sir James Spence Institute of Child Health, University of Newcastle, Royal Victoria Infirmary, Queen Victoria Road, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 4LP (United Kingdom)

    2003-12-01

    In 1993, a case-control study by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) assessed the risk of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (LNHL) among children of fathers employed at the Sellafield nuclear installation in relation to paternal preconceptional irradiation (PPI). It concluded that the statistical association between risk of LNHL and PPI was confined to children born in the village of Seascale, where the dose-response was extremely high and very significant. In contrast, in 2002, a Cumbrian birth cohort study, investigating largely the same cases, concluded that this statistical association was not significantly different among children born inside and outside Seascale and estimated the dose-response inside Seascale to be much lower. This review makes a detailed comparison of the two studies, considering their design, data and analyses. The differences between their findings are due to: (i) differences in the distribution of offspring-years which are differential with respect to dose category and Seascale birth status, (ii) a non-Seascale high-dose case included in the Cumbrian but not the HSE study, (iii) differences between analyses using categorical and continuous PPI dose and (iv) the presence of Seascale controls with PPI over 200 mSv in the Cumbrian but not the HSE study.

  20. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  1. Recurrence risk of congenital anomalies - the impact of paternal, social, and environmental factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Basso, Olga; Olsen, Jørn; Christensen, Kaare

    1999-01-01

    was associated with a lower recurrence risk (OR = 0.67, 95% CI 0.45, 0.99, for the middle status group and OR = 0.49, 95% CI 0.30, 0.81, for the highest status group), independently of partner change. A rise in social status between the two births was marginally associated with a decline in the recurrence risk...

  2. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  3. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  4. Parasitic spawning in sand gobies: an experimental assessment of nest-opening size, sneaker male cues, paternity, and filial cannibalism

    OpenAIRE

    Ola Svensson; Charlotta Kvarnemo

    2007-01-01

    Sneaking is common in nest-building fish with paternal care, but the role of nest-opening size in protecting against entry by sneaker males has never been tested before. Using the sand goby (Pomatoschistus minutus), a fish with exclusive paternal care, experimental manipulations of nest openings provided no support for the hypothesis that nest openings serve as physical or visual defense or that sneaker males prefer to parasitize nests with wide openings. Female mating preference was also not...

  5. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  6. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  7. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  8. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  9. Longer Duration and Earlier Age of Onset of Paternal Betel Chewing and Smoking Increase Metabolic Syndrome Risk in Human Offspring, Independently, in a Community-Based Screening Program in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Amy Ming-Fang; Boucher, Barbara J; Chiu, Sherry Yueh-Hsia; Fann, Jean Ching-Yuan; Chen, Sam Li-Sheng; Huang, Kuo-Chin; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi

    2016-08-02

    Transgenerational effects of paternal Areca catechu nut chewing on offspring metabolic syndrome (MetS) risk in humans, on obesity and diabetes mellitus experimentally, and of paternal smoking on offspring obesity, are reported, likely attributable to genetic and epigenetic effects previously reported in betel-associated disease. We aimed to determine the effects of paternal smoking, and betel chewing, on the risks of early MetS in human offspring. The 13 179 parent-child trios identified from 238 364 Taiwanese aged ≥20 years screened at 2 community-based integrated screening sessions were tested for the effects of paternal smoking, areca nut chewing, and their duration prefatherhood on age of detecting offspring MetS at screen by using a Cox proportional hazards regression model. Offspring MetS risks increased with prefatherhood paternal areca nutusage (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.23-2.53) versus nonchewing fathers (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.28; 95% CI, 1.67-6.43) with >10 years paternal betel chewing, 1.62 (95% CI, 0.88-2.96) for 5 to 9 years, and 1.42 (95% CI, 0.80-2.54) for betel usage prefatherhood (Ptrend=0.0002), with increased risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.26-3.04) for paternal areca nut usage from 20 to 29 years of age, versus from >30 years of age (adjusted hazard ratio,1.61; 95% CI, 0.22-11.69). MetS offspring risk for paternal smoking increased dosewise (Ptrendbetel quid chewing and smoking, prefatherhood, independently predicted early occurrence of incident MetS in offspring, corroborating previously reported transgenerational effects of these habits, and supporting the need for habit-cessation program provision. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  10. Contributions of maternal and paternal adiposity and smoking to adult offspring adiposity and cardiovascular risk: the Midspan Family Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, T S; Hart, C L; Haig, C; Logue, J; Upton, M N; Watt, G C M; Lean, M E J

    2015-11-02

    Obesity has some genetic basis but requires interaction with environmental factors for phenotypic expression. We examined contributions of gender-specific parental adiposity and smoking to adiposity and related cardiovascular risk in adult offspring. Cross-sectional general population survey. Scotland. 1456 of the 1477 first generation families in the Midspan Family Study: 2912 parents (aged 45-64 years surveyed between 1972 and 1976) who had 1025 sons and 1283 daughters, aged 30-59 years surveyed in 1996. Offspring body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), cardiometabolic risk (lipids, blood pressure and glucose) and cardiovascular disease as outcome measures, and parental BMI and smoking as determinants. All analyses adjusted for age, socioeconomic status and family clustering and offspring birth weight. Regression coefficients for BMI associations between father-son (0.30) and mother-daughter (0.33) were greater than father-daughter (0.23) or mother-son (0.22). Regression coefficient for the non-genetic, shared-environment or assortative-mating relationship between BMIs of fathers and mothers was 0.19. Heritability estimates for BMI were greatest among women with mothers who had BMI either parents, offspring with two obese parents had adjusted OR of 10.25 (95% CI 6.56 to 13.93) for having WC ≥102 cm for men, ≥88 cm women, 2.46 (95% CI 1.33 to 4.57) for metabolic syndrome and 3.03 (95% CI 1.55 to 5.91) for angina and/or myocardial infarct (pparental adiposity nor smoking history determined adjusted offspring individual cardiometabolic risk factors, diabetes or stroke. Maternal, but not paternal, smoking had significant effects on WC in sons (OR=1.50; 95% CI 1.13 to 2.01) and daughters (OR=1.42; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.84) and metabolic syndrome OR=1.68; 95% CI 1.17 to 2.40) in sons. There are modest genetic/epigenetic influences on the environmental factors behind adverse adiposity. Maternal smoking appears a specific hazard on obesity and metabolic

  11. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  12. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  13. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  14. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  15. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  16. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  17. Who wants paternalism?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Sofie K.; Koch, Alexander Karl; Nafziger, Julia

    2014-01-01

    Little is known about the demand side of paternalism. We investigate attitudes towards paternalism among Danish students. The main question is whether demand for paternalism is related to self-control, either because people with self-control problems seek commitment devices to overcome these prob...

  18. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  19. Cues of Paternal Uncertainty and Father to Child Physical Abuse as Reported by Mothers in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandre, Gisele Caldas; Nadanovsky, Paulo; Wilson, Margo; Daly, Martin; Moraes, Claudia Leite; Reichenheim, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Objective: Paternity is uncertain, so if paternal feelings evolved to promote fitness, we might expect them to vary in response to variables indicative of paternity probability. We therefore hypothesized that the risk of lapses of paternal affection, including abusive assaults on children, will be exacerbated by cues of non-paternity. Methods:…

  20. Is There an Association between Advanced Paternal Age and Endophenotype Deficit Levels in Schizophrenia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuang, Debby; Esterberg, Michelle; Braff, David; Calkins, Monica; Cadenhead, Kristin; Dobie, Dorcas; Freedman, Robert; Green, Michael F.; Greenwood, Tiffany; Gur, Raquel; Gur, Ruben; Horan, William; Lazzeroni, Laura C.; Light, Gregory A.; Millard, Steven P.; Olincy, Ann; Nuechterlein, Keith; Seidman, Larry; Siever, Larry; Silverman, Jeremy; Stone, William; Sprock, Joyce; Sugar, Catherine; Swerdlow, Neal; Tsuang, Ming; Turetsky, Bruce; Radant, Allen

    2014-01-01

    The children of older fathers have increased risks of developing schizophrenia spectrum disorders, and among those who develop these disorders, those with older fathers present with more severe clinical symptoms. However, the influence of advanced paternal age on other important domains related to schizophrenia, such as quantitative endophenotype deficit levels, remains unknown. This study investigated the associations between paternal age and level of endophenotypic impairment in a well-characterized family-based sample from the Consortium on the Genetics of Schizophrenia (COGS). All families included at least one affected subject and one unaffected sibling. Subjects met criteria for schizophrenia (probands; n = 293) or were unaffected first-degree siblings of those probands (n = 382). Paternal age at the time of subjects’ birth was documented. Subjects completed a comprehensive clinical assessment and a battery of tests that measured 16 endophenotypes. After controlling for covariates, potential paternal age–endophenotype associations were analyzed using one model that included probands alone and a second model that included both probands and unaffected siblings. Endophenotype deficits in the Identical Pairs version of the 4-digit Continuous Performance Test and in the Penn Computerized Neurocognitive Battery verbal memory test showed significant associations with paternal age. However, after correcting for multiple comparisons, no endophenotype was significantly associated with paternal age. These findings suggest that factors other than advanced paternal age at birth may account for endophenotypic deficit levels in schizophrenia. PMID:24523888

  1. Is there an association between advanced paternal age and endophenotype deficit levels in schizophrenia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuang, Debby; Esterberg, Michelle; Braff, David; Calkins, Monica; Cadenhead, Kristin; Dobie, Dorcas; Freedman, Robert; Green, Michael F; Greenwood, Tiffany; Gur, Raquel; Gur, Ruben; Horan, William; Lazzeroni, Laura C; Light, Gregory A; Millard, Steven P; Olincy, Ann; Nuechterlein, Keith; Seidman, Larry; Siever, Larry; Silverman, Jeremy; Stone, William; Sprock, Joyce; Sugar, Catherine; Swerdlow, Neal; Tsuang, Ming; Turetsky, Bruce; Radant, Allen

    2014-01-01

    The children of older fathers have increased risks of developing schizophrenia spectrum disorders, and among those who develop these disorders, those with older fathers present with more severe clinical symptoms. However, the influence of advanced paternal age on other important domains related to schizophrenia, such as quantitative endophenotype deficit levels, remains unknown. This study investigated the associations between paternal age and level of endophenotypic impairment in a well-characterized family-based sample from the Consortium on the Genetics of Schizophrenia (COGS). All families included at least one affected subject and one unaffected sibling. Subjects met criteria for schizophrenia (probands; n = 293) or were unaffected first-degree siblings of those probands (n = 382). Paternal age at the time of subjects' birth was documented. Subjects completed a comprehensive clinical assessment and a battery of tests that measured 16 endophenotypes. After controlling for covariates, potential paternal age-endophenotype associations were analyzed using one model that included probands alone and a second model that included both probands and unaffected siblings. Endophenotype deficits in the Identical Pairs version of the 4-digit Continuous Performance Test and in the Penn Computerized Neurocognitive Battery verbal memory test showed significant associations with paternal age. However, after correcting for multiple comparisons, no endophenotype was significantly associated with paternal age. These findings suggest that factors other than advanced paternal age at birth may account for endophenotypic deficit levels in schizophrenia.

  2. Is there an association between advanced paternal age and endophenotype deficit levels in schizophrenia?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debby Tsuang

    Full Text Available The children of older fathers have increased risks of developing schizophrenia spectrum disorders, and among those who develop these disorders, those with older fathers present with more severe clinical symptoms. However, the influence of advanced paternal age on other important domains related to schizophrenia, such as quantitative endophenotype deficit levels, remains unknown. This study investigated the associations between paternal age and level of endophenotypic impairment in a well-characterized family-based sample from the Consortium on the Genetics of Schizophrenia (COGS. All families included at least one affected subject and one unaffected sibling. Subjects met criteria for schizophrenia (probands; n = 293 or were unaffected first-degree siblings of those probands (n = 382. Paternal age at the time of subjects' birth was documented. Subjects completed a comprehensive clinical assessment and a battery of tests that measured 16 endophenotypes. After controlling for covariates, potential paternal age-endophenotype associations were analyzed using one model that included probands alone and a second model that included both probands and unaffected siblings. Endophenotype deficits in the Identical Pairs version of the 4-digit Continuous Performance Test and in the Penn Computerized Neurocognitive Battery verbal memory test showed significant associations with paternal age. However, after correcting for multiple comparisons, no endophenotype was significantly associated with paternal age. These findings suggest that factors other than advanced paternal age at birth may account for endophenotypic deficit levels in schizophrenia.

  3. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  4. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  5. The association between perceived maternal and paternal psychopathology and depression and anxiety symptoms in adolescent girls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasing, Sanne P. A.; Creemers, Daan H. M.; Janssens, Jan M. A. M.; Scholte, Ron H. J.

    2015-01-01

    Exposure to parental depression and anxiety is known to heighten the risk of internalizing symptoms and disorders in children and adolescents. Ample research has focused on the influence of maternal depression and anxiety, but the contribution of psychopathology in fathers remains unclear. We studied the relationships of perceived maternal and paternal psychopathology with adolescents’ depression and anxiety symptoms in a general population sample of 862 adolescent girls (age M = 12.39, SD = 0.79). Assessments included adolescents’ self-reports of their own depression and anxiety as well as their reports of maternal and paternal psychopathology. We found that perceived maternal and paternal psychopathology were both related to depression and anxiety symptoms in adolescent girls. A combination of higher maternal and paternal psychopathology was related to even higher levels of depression and anxiety in adolescent girls. Our findings showed that adolescents’ perceptions of their parents’ psychopathology are significantly related to their own emotional problems. PMID:26257664

  6. Teenage pregnancy and the influence of paternal involvement on fetal outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alio, Amina P; Mbah, Alfred K; Grunsten, Ryan A; Salihu, Hamisu M

    2011-12-01

    We sought to assess the impact of paternal involvement on adverse birth outcomes in teenage mothers. Using vital records data, we generated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to assess the association between paternal involvement and fetal outcomes in 192,747 teenage mothers. Paternal involvement status was based on presence/absence of paternal first and/or last name on the birth certificate. Data were obtained from vital records data from singleton births in Florida between 1998 and 2007. The study population consisted of 192,747 teenage mothers ≤ 20 years old with live single births in the State of Florida. Low birth weight, very low birth weight, preterm birth, very preterm birth, small for gestational age (SGA), neonatal death, post-neonatal death, and infant death. Risks of SGA (OR = 1.06; 95% CI: 1.03-1.10), low birth weight (OR = 1.19; 95% CI: 1.15-1.23), very low birth weight (OR = 1.53; 95% CI: 1.41-1.67), preterm birth (OR = 1.21; 95% CI: 1.17-1.25), and very preterm birth (OR = 1.49; 95% CI: 1.38-1.62) were elevated for mothers in the father-absent group. When results were stratified by race, black teenagers in the father-absent group had the highest risks of adverse birth outcomes when compared to white teenagers in the father-involved group. Lack of paternal involvement is a risk factor for adverse birth outcomes among teenage mothers; risks are most pronounced among African-American teenagers. Our findings suggest that increased paternal involvement can have a positive impact on birth outcomes for teenage mothers, which may be important for decreasing the racial disparities in infant morbidities. More studies assessing the impact of greater paternal involvement on birth outcomes are needed. Copyright © 2011 North American Society for Pediatric and Adolescent Gynecology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  8. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  9. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  10. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  11. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  12. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  13. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  14. Hazard waste risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawley, K.A.; Napier, B.A.

    1986-01-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory continued to provide technical assistance to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Operational Safety (OOS) in the area of risk assessment for hazardous and radioactive-mixed waste management. The overall objective is to provide technical assistance to OOS in developing cost-effective risk assessment tools and strategies for bringing DOE facilities into compliance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). Major efforts during FY 1985 included (1) completing the modification of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Hazard Ranking System (HRS) and developing training manuals and courses to assist in field office implementation of the modified Hazard Ranking System (mHRS); (2) initiating the development of a system for reviewing field office HRS/mHRS evaluations for appropriate use of data and appropriate application of the methodology; (3) initiating the development of a data base management system to maintain all field office HRS/mHRS scoring sheets and to support the master OOS environmental data base system; (4) developing implementation guidance for Phase I of the DOE CERCLA Program, Installation Assessment; (5) continuing to develop an objective, scientifically based methodology for DOE management to use in establishing priorities for conducting site assessments under Phase II of the DOE CERCLA Program, Confirmation; and (6) participating in developing the DOE response to EPA on the proposed listing of three sites on the National Priorities List

  15. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  16. Case-control analysis of paternal age and trisomic anomalies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Souza, E; Morris, David Jackson; Garne, Ester

    2010-01-01

    To determine whether older paternal age increases the risk of fathering a pregnancy with Patau (trisomy 13), Edwards (trisomy 18), Klinefelter (XXY) or XYY syndrome.......To determine whether older paternal age increases the risk of fathering a pregnancy with Patau (trisomy 13), Edwards (trisomy 18), Klinefelter (XXY) or XYY syndrome....

  17. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  18. Paternity leave experiences of NHS doctors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Hannah; Szram, Joanna

    2013-10-01

    This study assesses NHS doctors' experiences of paternity leave and evaluates whether practices have changed since the introduction of additional paternity leave (APL) in April 2011. An anonymised online survey designed to discover experiences and uptake of APL and ordinary paternity leave (OPL) was distributed to all members of the London Deanery Synapse® network. In total, 364 fathers responded. Their seniority ranged from foundation trainees to consultants. Following the formal introduction of OPL in 2003, the number of fathers taking any paternity leave increased (from 50% to 95.6%). The majority of respondents (76.7%) felt well supported by their employer. Since the introduction of APL, 3% of respondents took additional leave. Reasons for the low uptake of APL included the impracticalities of the law, poor awareness and perceived attitudes and implications for training. Problems with OPL included the inadequate provision of cover and difficulties in timing the leave appropriately.

  19. Avian paternal care had dinosaur origin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varricchio, David J; Moore, Jason R; Erickson, Gregory M; Norell, Mark A; Jackson, Frankie D; Borkowski, John J

    2008-12-19

    The repeated discovery of adult dinosaurs in close association with egg clutches leads to speculation over the type and extent of care exhibited by these extinct animals for their eggs and young. To assess parental care in Cretaceous troodontid and oviraptorid dinosaurs, we examined clutch volume and the bone histology of brooding adults. In comparison to four archosaur care regressions, the relatively large clutch volumes of Troodon, Oviraptor, and Citipati scale most closely with a bird-paternal care model. Clutch-associated adults lack the maternal and reproductively associated histologic features common to extant archosaurs. Large clutch volumes and a suite of reproductive features shared only with birds favor paternal care, possibly within a polygamous mating system. Paternal care in both troodontids and oviraptorids indicates that this care system evolved before the emergence of birds and represents birds' ancestral condition. In extant birds and over most adult sizes, paternal and biparental care correspond to the largest and smallest relative clutch volumes, respectively.

  20. The effect of paternal factors on perinatal and paediatric outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Oldereid, Nan B; Wennerholm, Ulla-Britt; Pinborg, Anja

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Maternal factors, including increasing childbearing age and various life-style factors, are associated with poorer short- and long-term outcomes for children, whereas knowledge of paternal parameters is limited. Recently, increasing paternal age has been associated with adverse obstet...... IMPLICATIONS: Although the increased risks of adverse outcome in offspring associated with paternal factors and identified in this report represent serious health effects, the magnitude of these effects seems modest....

  1. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  2. Assessment of technical risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, T A [Bundesanstalt fuer Materialpruefung, Berlin (Germany, F.R.)

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions.

  3. Paternal and maternal age at pregnancy and autism spectrum disorders in offspring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luh Putu Rihayani Budi

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background The prevalence of autism spectrum disorders (ASDs has increased 10 times over the past half century, while paternal and maternal age at pregnancy has also increased. Studies looking for an association between paternal or maternal age at pregnancy and ASDs in offspring have not been conclusive. Objective To assess for possible associations between paternal and maternal age at pregnancy and ASDs in offspring. Methods This case-control study had 50 case and 100 control subjects, each case was matched for age and gender to two controls. Case subjects were obtained by consecutive sampling of patients aged 18 months to 7 years who visited the Developmental Behavioral & Community Pediatrics Outpatient Clinic and private growth and development centers from January to April 2013, while control group were children of the same age range and same gender who visited pediatric outpatient clinic at Sanglah Hospital mostly due to acute respiratory tract infection, without ASDs as assessed by the DSM-IV-TR criteria. We interviewed parents to collect the following data: maternal and paternal age at pregnancy, child’s birth weight, history of asphyxia, hospital admission during the neonatal period, pathological labor, maternal smoking during pregnancy, paternal smoking, and gestational age. Data analysis was performed with Chi-square and Fisher’s exact tests. Results Multivariable analysis showed that higher paternal age at pregnancy was associated with ASDs in offspring (OR 6.3; 95%CI 2.0 to 19.3; P 0.001. However, there was no significant association between maternal age during pregnancy and the incidence of ASDs. Asphyxia and paternal smoking were also associated with higher incidence of ASDs in the offspring (OR 10.3; 95%CI 1.9 to 56.5; P 0.007 and OR 3.2; 95%CI 1.5 to 6.9; P 0.003, respectively. Conclusion Paternal age >=40 years increased the risk of ASDs in offspring by 6.3 times. In addition, paternal smoking increased the risk of ASDs in

  4. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  5. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited....... CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate models and baseline caries prevalence performed better in pre-school children than in schoolchildren/adolescents. Baseline caries prevalence was the most accurate single predictor in all age groups. The heterogeneity of populations, models, outcome criteria, measures and reporting...

  6. Methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, D.R.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

  7. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  8. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  9. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  10. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  11. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  12. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  13. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  14. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  15. Risk assessment and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    The approach to determining how safe is safe for the nuclear industry is to ensure that the risks are comparable with or less than those of other safe industries. There are some problems in implementing such an approach, because the effects of low levels of radiation are stochastic and assumptions are required in estimating the risks. A conservative approach has generally been adopted. Risk estimates across different activities are a useful indication of where society may be overspending or underspending to reduce risk, but the analysis has to take account of public preferences. Once risks have been estimated, limits may be chosen which the industry is expected to meet under normal and postulated accident conditions. Limits have been set so that nuclear risks do not exceed those in safe industries, and under normal conditions nuclear facilities operate at levels far below these specified limits

  16. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  17. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  18. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  19. Who wants paternalism?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Sofie Kragh; Koch, Alexander Karl; Nafziger, Julia

    these problems, or because people with good self-control want those who lack it to change their behaviors. We find no evidence linking self-control to attitudes towards weak forms of paternalism (e.g. nudges or information about health consequences). But respondents with good selfcontrol are significantly more...

  20. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  1. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  2. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  3. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  4. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  5. Carcinogen risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed

  6. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shinaishin, M.A.

    1988-06-01

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  7. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shinaishin, M A

    1988-06-15

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  8. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  9. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  10. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  11. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  12. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  13. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  14. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  15. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  16. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  17. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  18. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  19. A comparison of the risk of stillbirth associated with paternal pre-conception irradiation in the Sellafield workforce with that of stillbirth and untoward pregnancy outcome among Japanese atomic bomb survivors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Little, M.P.

    1999-01-01

    A comparison is made of the relative risks associated with paternal pre-conception irradiation of stillbirth and untoward pregnancy outcome (stillbirths, congenital malformations, neonatal deaths) in the offspring of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and of stillbirth in the offspring of Sellafield workers. It is concluded that the pre-conception exposure risks of stillbirth in the offspring of Sellafield workers are statistically incompatible with the Japanese data at the 5% level. Other human and experimental data relating to the induction of congenital abnormalities are briefly reviewed. (author)

  20. Assessment and perception of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daglish, J

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors.

  1. Genotype Reconstruction of Paternity in European Lobsters (Homarus gammarus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Charlie D; Hodgson, David J; André, Carl; Sørdalen, Tonje K; Knutsen, Halvor; Griffiths, Amber G F

    2015-01-01

    Decapod crustaceans exhibit considerable variation in fertilisation strategies, ranging from pervasive single paternity to the near-ubiquitous presence of multiple paternity, and such knowledge of mating systems and behaviour are required for the informed management of commercially-exploited marine fisheries. We used genetic markers to assess the paternity of individual broods in the European lobster, Homarus gammarus, a species for which paternity structure is unknown. Using 13 multiplexed microsatellite loci, three of which are newly described in this study, we genotyped 10 eggs from each of 34 females collected from an Atlantic peninsula in the south-western United Kingdom. Single reconstructed paternal genotypes explained all observed progeny genotypes in each of the 34 egg clutches, and each clutch was fertilised by a different male. Simulations indicated that the probability of detecting multiple paternity was in excess of 95% if secondary sires account for at least a quarter of the brood, and in excess of 99% where additional sire success was approximately equal. Our results show that multiple paternal fertilisations are either absent, unusual, or highly skewed in favour of a single male among H. gammarus in this area. Potential mechanisms upholding single paternal fertilisation are discussed, along with the prospective utility of parentage assignments in evaluations of hatchery stocking and other fishery conservation approaches in light of this finding.

  2. Genotype Reconstruction of Paternity in European Lobsters (Homarus gammarus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charlie D Ellis

    Full Text Available Decapod crustaceans exhibit considerable variation in fertilisation strategies, ranging from pervasive single paternity to the near-ubiquitous presence of multiple paternity, and such knowledge of mating systems and behaviour are required for the informed management of commercially-exploited marine fisheries. We used genetic markers to assess the paternity of individual broods in the European lobster, Homarus gammarus, a species for which paternity structure is unknown. Using 13 multiplexed microsatellite loci, three of which are newly described in this study, we genotyped 10 eggs from each of 34 females collected from an Atlantic peninsula in the south-western United Kingdom. Single reconstructed paternal genotypes explained all observed progeny genotypes in each of the 34 egg clutches, and each clutch was fertilised by a different male. Simulations indicated that the probability of detecting multiple paternity was in excess of 95% if secondary sires account for at least a quarter of the brood, and in excess of 99% where additional sire success was approximately equal. Our results show that multiple paternal fertilisations are either absent, unusual, or highly skewed in favour of a single male among H. gammarus in this area. Potential mechanisms upholding single paternal fertilisation are discussed, along with the prospective utility of parentage assignments in evaluations of hatchery stocking and other fishery conservation approaches in light of this finding.

  3. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  4. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  5. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  6. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor

  7. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  8. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  9. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  10. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  11. Pathology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1976-01-01

    Programs for providing basic data for use in evaluating the hazard to man from exposure to radiation and other energy-related pollutants are reviewed. A computer program was developed that takes the existing mortality and fertility data on a given population and applies dose-response coefficients and estimated increments of exposure to chemical or radioactive effluents and derives the excess deaths by age and sex for 5-year intervals. The program was used in an analysis of the health effects of airborne coal combustion effluents. Preliminary results are reported from a study of the influence of products of fossil fuel combustion on the spontaneous activity patterns and daily metabolic cycles of mice as a factor of age, environment, and genetic constitution. Preliminary results are reported from studies on the early and late effects of polycyclic hydrocarbons on the immune competence of mice. Studies to determine the risk to human populations from radionuclides released to the environment from nuclear energy facilities use relative toxicity and dose response data from laboratory animals of different body size and life span and comparisons of the effects of internal exposure with those of external exposure to fission neutrons or gamma sources

  12. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  13. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  14. Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.

    1980-01-01

    New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

  15. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  16. Assessing Risk of Innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allgood, GO

    2001-01-01

    Today's manufacturing systems and equipment must perform at levels thought impossible a decade ago. Companies must push operations, quality, and efficiencies to unprecedented levels while holding down costs. In this new economy, companies must be concerned with market shares, equity growth, market saturation, and profit. U.S. manufacturing is no exception and is a prime example of businesses forced to adapt to constant and rapid changes in customer needs and product mixes, giving rise to the term ''Agile Manufacturing''. The survival and ultimate success of the American Manufacturing economy may depend upon its ability to create, innovate, and quickly assess the impact that new innovations will have on its business practices. Given the need for flexibility, companies need proven methods to predict and measure the impact that new technologies and strategies will have on overall plant performance from an enterprise perspective. The Value-Derivative Model provides a methodology and approach to assess such impacts in terms of energy savings, production increases, quality impacts, emission reduction, and maintenance and operating costs as they relate to enabling and emerging technologies. This is realized by calculating a set of first order sensitivity parameters obtained from expanding a Taylor Series about the system's operating point. These sensitivity parameters are invariant economic and operational indicators that quantify the impact of any proposed technology in terms of material throughput, efficiency, energy usage, environmental effects, and costs. These parameters also provide a mechanism to define metrics and performance measures that can be qualified in terms of real economic impact. Value-Derivative Analysis can be applied across all manufacturing and production segments of our economy and has found specific use in steel and textiles. Where economic models give the cost of conducting a business, Value-Derivative Analysis provides the cost to conduct

  17. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  18. The influences of parental divorce and maternal-versus-paternal alcohol abuse on offspring lifetime suicide attempt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Ronald G; Alonzo, Dana; Hu, Mei-Chen; Hasin, Deborah S

    2017-05-01

    Research indicates that parental divorce and parental alcohol abuse independently increase likelihood of offspring lifetime suicide attempt. However, when experienced together, only parental alcohol abuse significantly increased odds of suicide attempt. It is unclear to what extent differences in the effect of maternal versus paternal alcohol use exist on adult offspring lifetime suicide attempt risk. This study examined the influences of parental divorce and maternal-paternal histories of alcohol problems on adult offspring lifetime suicide attempt. The sample consisted of participants from the 2001-2002 National Epidemiological Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions. The simultaneous effect of childhood or adolescent parental divorce and maternal and paternal history of alcohol problems on offspring lifetime suicide attempt was estimated using a logistic regression model with an interaction term for demographics and parental history of other emotional and behavioural problems. Parental divorce and maternal-paternal alcohol problems interacted to differentially influence the likelihood of offspring lifetime suicide attempt. Experiencing parental divorce and either maternal or paternal alcohol problems nearly doubled the likelihood of suicide attempt. Divorce and history of alcohol problems for both parents tripled the likelihood. Individuals who experienced parental divorce as children or adolescents and who have a parent who abuses alcohol are at elevated risk for lifetime suicide attempt. These problem areas should become a routine part of assessment to better identify those at risk for lifetime suicide attempt and to implement early and targeted intervention to decrease such risk. [Thompson RG Jr,Alonzo D, Hu M-C, Hasin DS. The influences of parental divorce and maternal-versus-paternal alcohol abuse on offspringlifetime suicide attempt. Drug Alcohol Rev 2017;36:408-414]. © 2016 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  19. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  20. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  1. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  2. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  3. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  4. Risk assessment and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodansky, D.

    1982-01-01

    The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

  5. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  6. Paternal history of diabetes mellitus and hypertension affects the prevalence and phenotype of PCOS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Chen; Zhang, Haolin; Zhao, Yue; Li, Rong; Qiao, Jie

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of the present study is to determine if paternal or maternal history of diabetes mellitus (DM) and hypertension (HT) contributes to the prevalence and phenotype of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). We performed an epidemiologic study about PCOS from four districts in Beijing, China, between 2008 and 2009. Parental histories of DM and HT were collected, and the basic characteristics and serum indices of 123 PCOS patients and 718 non-PCOS controls were tested. The prevalence of a parental history of DM and HT was significantly higher in PCOS patients than non-PCOS women (17.1 % vs. 9.2 % and 42.3 % vs. 26.0 %, P PCOS and non-PCOS patients (odds ratio (OR) = 3.42, 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 1.69-6.91; OR = 2.50, 95 % CI = 1.58-3.93, respectively). A paternal history of both DM and HT was significantly associated with sex hormone-binding globulin, fasting plasma glucose, and fasting insulin levels, the free androgen index, and the homeostatic model assessment-insulin resistance in PCOS patients (P PCOS. PCOS patients with a positive paternal history of both DM and HT have an adverse endocrine and metabolic profile. A paternal history of DM and HT poses a risk to PCOS.

  7. Advanced paternal age is associated with impaired neurocognitive outcomes during infancy and childhood.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sukanta Saha

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Advanced paternal age (APA is associated with an increased risk of neurodevelopmental disorders such as autism and schizophrenia, as well as with dyslexia and reduced intelligence. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between paternal age and performance on neurocognitive measures during infancy and childhood. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A sample of singleton children (n = 33,437 was drawn from the US Collaborative Perinatal Project. The outcome measures were assessed at 8 mo, 4 y, and 7 y (Bayley scales, Stanford Binet Intelligence Scale, Graham-Ernhart Block Sort Test, Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children, Wide Range Achievement Test. The main analyses examined the relationship between neurocognitive measures and paternal or maternal age when adjusted for potential confounding factors. Advanced paternal age showed significant associations with poorer scores on all of the neurocognitive measures apart from the Bayley Motor score. The findings were broadly consistent in direction and effect size at all three ages. In contrast, advanced maternal age was generally associated with better scores on these same measures. CONCLUSIONS: The offspring of older fathers show subtle impairments on tests of neurocognitive ability during infancy and childhood. In light of secular trends related to delayed fatherhood, the clinical implications and the mechanisms underlying these findings warrant closer scrutiny.

  8. Human reliability assessment and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.; Lucas, D.A.

    1989-01-01

    Human reliability assessment (HRA) is used within Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to identify the human errors (both omission and commission) which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. There exist a variey of HRA techniques and the selection of an appropriate one is often difficult. This paper reviews a number of available HRA techniques and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. The techniques reviewed include: decompositional methods, time-reliability curves and systematic expert judgement techniques. (orig.)

  9. Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayramov, A. A.

    In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

  10. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  11. Comparison of associations of maternal peri-pregnancy and paternal anthropometrics with child anthropometrics from birth through age 7 y assessed in the Danish National Birth Cohort

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sorensen, Thorkild I. A.; Ajslev, Teresa Adeltoft; Angquist, Lars

    2016-01-01

    body mass index (BMI) with child anthropometric measurements from birth through infancy and at 7 y of age exceed those of paternal associations. Design: In the Danish National Birth Cohort, information on parental and child anthropometric measures is available for 30,655 trio families from maternal...

  12. Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.

    2004-01-01

    A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

  13. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  14. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  15. Methodology for technical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

  16. Ecological risk assessment: Lessons learned?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This conference was held November 14--18, 1993 in Houston, Texas for the purpose of providing a forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information on ecological risk assessment. This book is comprised of the abstracts of the presentations at this symposium. Individual abstracts have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  17. Where You Live: Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.

  18. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    of Ministers with the task to propose criteria for neurotoxicity. Functional effects on the nervous system, such as reduction in memory and learning ability, decrease in attention, and alteration of behavior due to toxic chemicals in the environment is now being acknowledged as an important public health...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  19. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  20. Human mutagens: evidence from paternal exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narod, S.A.; Douglas, G.R.; Nestmann, E.R.; Blakey, D.H.

    1988-01-01

    The importance of inherited mutations as a cause of human disease has been established clearly through examples of well-defined genetic anomalies, such as Down syndrome and retinoblastoma. Furthermore, it is suspected that environmental contaminants induce mutations resulting in increased risk for such defects in subsequent generations of persons exposed. The present lack of direct evidence for induced inherited genetic disorders in human beings hampers the development of risk estimation techniques for extrapolation from animal models. The most extensive prospective epidemiologic studies of inherited genetic effects have involved survivors of atomic bomb detonations and patients treated with cancer chemotherapy. In neither case has a significant elevation in inherited genetic effects or cancer been detected in the offspring of exposed individuals. Epidemiologic studies of subjects receiving chronic exposure may be confounded by the effect of maternal exposure during pregnancy. Consideration of only paternal exposure can minimize the confounding influence of teratogenicity, enhancing the resolving power of studies for inherited effects. Using this approach, retrospective (case-control) studies of childhood cancer patients have provided limited but suggestive evidence for inheritance of induced effects. Endpoints, such as congenital malformations and spontaneous abortion following paternal exposure, can also be considered as indicators of heritable mutagenic effects. For example, there is limited evidence suggesting that paternal exposure to anaesthetic gases may cause miscarriage and congenital abnormalities as a result of induced male germ cell mutations. 104 references

  1. Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    2012-01-01

    This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

  2. Performance assessment - risk assessment vive la differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nitschke, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    In the sister worlds of radioactive waste management disposal and environmental restoration, there are two similar processes and computational approaches for determining the acceptability of the proposed activities. While similar, these two techniques can lead to confusion and misunderstanding if the differences are not recognized and appreciated. In the case of radioactive waste management, the performance assessment process is used to determine compliance with certain prescribed 'performance objectives'. These objectives are designed to ensure that the disposal of radioactive (high-level, low-level, and/or transuranic) waste will be protective of human health and the environment. The environmental link is primarily through assuring protection of the groundwater as a resource. In the case of environmental restoration, the risk assessment process is used to determine the proper remedial action response, if any, for a past hazardous waste release. The process compares the 'no action' or 'leave as is' option with both carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic values for human health to determine the need for any action and to help to help determine just what the appropriate action would need to be. The impacts to the ecological system are evaluated in a slightly, different but similar fashion. Now the common objectives between these two processes notwithstanding. There are some key and fundamental differences that need to be answered that make direct comparisons or a common approach inappropriate. Failure to recognize this can lead to confusion and misunderstanding. This can be particularly problematic when one is faced with an active disposal facility located within the boundaries of an environmental restoration site as is the case at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Through a critical evaluation of the performance assessment and risk assessment processes, highlighting both similarities and differences, it is hoped that greater understanding and appreciation

  3. How do masculinity, paternity leave, and mortality associate? -A study of fathers in the Swedish parental & child cohort of 1988/89.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Månsdotter, Anna; Lundin, Andreas

    2010-08-01

    One of the proposed causes for the gender gap in longevity is the attitudes and practices culturally prescribed for men, often conceptualised as 'masculinity'. It has also been suggested that paternity leave, indicating a change from breadwinning to caring, could benefit men's lifetime health. In this study, the objective was to examine associations between 'masculinity' (assessed at the age of 18-19 years), paternity leave (1988-1990), and mortality patterns (1991-2008) based on a population of Swedish men who had a child in 1988/89 (N=72,569). 'Masculinity' was measured during the compulsory military conscription process by a psychologist based on leisure and occupational interests, and paternity leave was measured in fulltime days by registry data. The main finding was that low 'masculinity' ranking increased the risk of all-cause mortality, and mortality from alcohol and violent causes, while taking paternity leave between 30 and 135 days decreased the risk of all-cause mortality. However, the weak association found between 'masculinity' and paternity leave indicates that entering a caring role as a father is not predicted by 'masculinity' assessed in late adolescence, and that the studied phenomena influence male mortality independently of each other. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  5. Risk assessment and societal choices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otway, H J

    1975-02-15

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  6. Risk assessment and societal choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.

    1975-01-01

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  7. Fire Risk Assessment in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, H. P.

    2000-01-01

    Quantitative fire risk assessment can serve as an additional tool to assess the safety level of a nuclear power plant (NPP) and to set priorities for fire protection improvement measures. The recommended approach to be applied within periodic safety reviews of NPPs in Germany starts with a screening process providing critical fire zones in which a fully developed fire has the potential to both cause an initiating event and impair the function of at least one component or system critical to safety. The second step is to perform a quantitative analysis using a standard event tree has been developed with elements for fire initiation, ventilation of the room, fire detection, fire suppression, and fire propagation. In a final step, the fire induced frequency of initiating events, the main contributors and the calculated hazard state frequency for the fire event are determined. Results of the first quantitative fire risk studies performed in Germany are reported. (author)

  8. Hydrocarbons pipeline transportation risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanin, A. V.; Milke, A. A.; Kvasov, I. N.

    2018-04-01

    The pipeline transportation applying risks assessment issue in the arctic conditions is addressed in the paper. Pipeline quality characteristics in the given environment has been assessed. To achieve the stated objective, the pipelines mathematical model was designed and visualized by using the software product SOLIDWORKS. When developing the mathematical model the obtained results made possible to define the pipeline optimal characteristics for designing on the Arctic sea bottom. In the course of conducting the research the pipe avalanche collapse risks were examined, internal longitudinal and circular loads acting on the pipeline were analyzed, as well as the water impact hydrodynamic force was taken into consideration. The conducted calculation can contribute to the pipeline transport further development under the harsh climate conditions of the Russian Federation Arctic shelf territory.

  9. How attractive is the girl next door? An assessment of spatial mate acquisition and paternity in the solitary Cape dune mole-rat, Bathyergus suillus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy C Bray

    Full Text Available Behavioural observations of reproduction and mate choice in wild fossorial rodents are extremely limited and consequently indirect methods are typically used to infer mating strategies. We use a combination of morphological, reproductive, spatial, and genetic data to investigate the reproductive strategy of a solitary endemic species, the Cape dune mole-rat Bathyergus suillus. These data provide the first account on the population dynamics of this species. Marked sexual dimorphism was apparent with males being both significantly larger and heavier than females. Of all females sampled 36% had previously reproduced and 12% were pregnant at the time of capture. Post-partum sex ratio was found to be significantly skewed in favour of females. The paternity of fifteen litters (n = 37 was calculated, with sires assigned to progeny using both categorical and full probability methods, and including a distance function. The maximum distance between progeny and a putative sire was determined as 2149 m with males moving between sub-populations. We suggest that above-ground movement should not be ignored in the consideration of mate acquisition behaviour of subterranean mammals. Estimated levels of multiple paternity were shown to be potentially as high as 26%, as determined using sibship and sire assignment methods. Such high levels of multiple paternity have not been found in other solitary mole-rat species. The data therefore suggest polyandry with no evidence as yet for polygyny.

  10. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1980-08-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed

  11. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1981-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed. (author)

  12. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  13. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  14. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  15. Advancing paternal age and schizophrenia: the impact of delayed fatherhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ek, Mats; Wicks, Susanne; Svensson, Anna C; Idring, Selma; Dalman, Christina

    2015-05-01

    It is well known that advancing paternal age is associated with an increased risk of schizophrenia in offspring, but the mechanism behind this association remains unknown. This study investigates if delayed fatherhood rather than advancing paternal age per se might explain the increased risk of schizophrenia in offspring associated with advancing paternal age. This is a register-based study of the Swedish population looking at people born 1955-1985 who have 1 or 2 siblings (n = 2 589 502). The main analysis investigated whether the association between advancing paternal age and schizophrenia was explained by delayed fatherhood. Possible confounding factors were taken into account. Cox regression was used throughout. In the main analysis the association between advancing paternal age and increased risk of schizophrenia in offspring disappeared after controlling for delayed fatherhood (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.72-1.21 comparing 45+ years old fathers to those 25-29), whereas delayed fatherhood showed an association with increased risk of schizophrenia in offspring comparing 35-39 and 40-44 years old fathers to 25-29 year olds (HR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.18-1.58; HR = 1.81, 95% CI = 1.44-2.28, respectively). The results remained when controlling for possible confounders. This study suggests that the association between paternal age and schizophrenia is not due to paternal age per se, but rather to an unknown factor associated with both delayed fatherhood and schizophrenia. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

  17. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  18. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  19. [Influence of paternal age in schizophrenia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubert, A; Szöke, A; Leboyer, M; Schürhoff, F

    2011-06-01

    Schizophrenia is an aetiologically heterogeneous syndrome, with a strong genetic component. Despite a reduced fertility in this disorder, its prevalence is maintained and could be explained by de novo genetic mutations. Advanced paternal age (APA) is a major source of new mutations in human beings and could thus be associated with an increased risk of developing schizophrenia in offspring. New mutations related to APA have been implicated as a cause of sporadic cases in several autosomal dominant diseases and also in neurodevelopmental diseases, autism, intellectual disabilities, and social functioning. The aim of the present study was to summarize the results of studies investigating the role of APA, and to discuss some interpretations. All relevant studies were identified through the National Library of Medicine (PubMed(®) database). Keywords used for research were "age" and "schizophrenia" linked to "paternal or father". We have identified and analysed eight cohort studies, five case-control studies, two meta-analyses, and one review concerning different father's mutations potentially transmitted, two studies comparing paternal age at conception between sporadic versus familial cases of schizophrenia. All studies selected have been published between 2000 and 2009. After controlling for several confounding factors including maternal age, the relative risk of schizophrenia increased from 1.84 to 4.62 in offspring of fathers with an older age of fatherhood. Mother's age showed no significant effects after adjusting for paternal age. There was a significant association between paternal age and risk of developing schizophrenia, there was a weaker association with psychosis. The results of these different studies are confirmed by two recent meta-analyses which found an increased risk of schizophrenia in offspring of fathers older than 35 years. Two main hypotheses could explain these results. The first one is based on the presence of new mutations in the

  20. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  1. Risk communication and environmental risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petts, J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to provide a broad context for consideration of appropriate risk communication approaches. It examines the basis of public concerns and in particular the non-risk dimensions. The latter are so important in any risk decision that means of communication which can deal with them are required which extend beyond understanding how to present risk estimates. These means relate to (a) the decision processes themselves and the extent to which they provide for involvement of the public in decisions, (b) the communication skills of experts, and (c) the robustness of the risk information which is available. (Author)

  2. Molecular radiobiology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgieva, R.

    2009-01-01

    Full text: Attitudes towards the radiation protection standards on in Europe and the world largely depends on scientific knowledge, periodically published by the United Nations Scientific Committee (UNSCEAR) and the recommendations of the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP), which also comply with the research. The new scientific evidence by conducting an additional research is a crucial element in the process of protection of people, workers and patients in medicine from the adverse health effects. Although these standards are clear and easy to apply, there is serious doubt from a scientific perspective about the level of health risk at low doses, which keep up a fierce debate, both eight scientific and political society. The answer to this question requires the integrated efforts of many scientific disciplines. Increasingly rapid advances in biological and medical knowledge provide the necessary conditions for achieving this aim. This lecture tries to shed light on the current state of knowledge, the main unresolved problems in science in the context of radiation protection and risk assessment, and on those lines of research that have the greatest potential to address the issues. They mainly concern issues of doses and biological effects of different types of ionisation radiation, biological effects in cells/tissues which initiate health effects at low doses, individual variability and direct health risk assessment by epidemiological studies of groups exposed to lower doses irradiation

  3. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  4. Psychosocial factors associated with paternal postnatal depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demontigny, Francine; Girard, Marie-Eve; Lacharité, Carl; Dubeau, Diane; Devault, Annie

    2013-08-15

    While maternal postpartum depression is a well-known phenomenon, paternal postnatal depression has been less studied. It is known that paternal postnatal depression impacts on children's and families' development, affects marital satisfaction and affects the economic health of industrialized countries. The aim of this study was to identify the psychosocial factors associated with paternal postnatal depression. A descriptive-correlational study was conducted with a sample of fathers of infants (average age: 11 months) who were breastfed exclusively or predominantly for at least 6 months, comparing psychosocial factors in fathers with (n: 17, 8.2%) and without a positive score for depression on the EPDS scale (n: 188). Psychosocial factors were assessed through questionnaires. Depression in fathers of breastfed infants is associated with the experience of perinatal loss in a previous pregnancy, parenting distress, infant temperament (difficult child), dysfunctional interactions with the child, decreased marital adjustment and perceived low parenting efficacy. Multivariate analysis suggests an independent effect of psychosocial factors such as parenting distress, quality of the marital relationship and perceived parenting efficacy on paternal depression. The sample focused on fathers of breastfed infant, since breastfeeding has become the feeding norm, and this should be taken into account when considering the generalization of findings. These findings emphasize the need to consider a set of psychosocial factors when examining fathers' mental health in the first year of a child's birth. Health professionals can enhance parenting efficacy and alleviate parenting distress by supporting fathers' unique experiences and addressing their needs. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  6. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  7. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  8. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  9. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  10. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  11. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  12. The assessment of technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaeger, T.A.

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions. (orig./HP) [de

  13. Postnatal paternal involvement and maternal emotional disturbances: The effect of maternal employment status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Wan-Chien; Chang, Shin-Yow; Chen, Yi-Ting; Lee, Hsin-Chien; Chen, Yi-Hua

    2017-09-01

    Recently, studies have begun emphasizing paternal involvement during the perinatal period and its impact on maternal health. However, most studies have assessed maternal perception and focused on adolescents or minority groups in Western countries. Therefore, the current study investigated the association between paternal involvement and maternal postnatal depression and anxiety, along with the effects of maternal job status in the Asian society of Taiwan. This study recruited pregnant women in the first trimester of pregnancy as well as their partners on prenatal visits from July 2011 to September 2013 at four selected hospitals in metropolitan areas of Taipei, Taiwan. In total, 593 parental pairs completed the first interview and responded to the follow-up questionnaires until 6 months postpartum. Self-reported data were collected, and multiple logistic regression models were used for analyses. Lower paternal childcare and nursing frequency was independently associated with an increased risk of maternal postpartum depression (adjusted odds ratio (OR) =4.33, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.34-13.98), particularly among unemployed mothers. Furthermore, among unemployed mothers, the risk of postnatal anxiety was 3.14 times higher in couples with fathers spending less time with the child, compared with couples with fathers spending more time (95% CI=1.10-8.98). However, no significant findings were obtained for employed mothers. The high prevalence of maternal postnatal emotional disturbances warrants continual consideration. Higher paternal involvement in childcare arrangements should be emphasized to aid in ameliorating these maternal emotional disturbances, particularly among unemployed mothers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  15. Getting fire risk assessment right.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charters, David

    2012-06-01

    The NHS has one of the world's largest and most varied estates, which at any time accommodates many of the most dependent people in society. With around 6,000 fires occurring in NHS premises each year, its duty of care--and that of other healthcare providers--demands very close attention to fire safety. Here Dr David Charters BSc, PhD, CEng, FIFireE, MIMechE, MSFPE, director of Fire Engineering at BRE Global, an independent third party approvals body offering certification of fire, security, and sustainability products and services, examines the critical role of fire risk assessment, and explains why the process should provide the 'foundation' for effective fire safety measures.

  16. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  17. Social aspects of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.; Linnerooth, J.; Niehaus, F.

    1977-01-01

    Plans for technological development have often been met by demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks and the consideration of social values in public planning and decision processes. A theoretical framework for inter-disciplinary risk assessment studies is presented to aid the balancing of technical data with social values in decision making. Methods for obtaining value measures are reviewed and an attitude-based method is developed in detail; this model allows identification of the relative importance of the technical, psychological and social factors which underlie attitudes and indicates which factors differentiate between social groups. Results of a pilot application to nuclear power are summarized. For these subjects, different attitudes between pro and con were primarily due to strongly differing beliefs about the benefits of nuclear power. Preliminary results are reported of an application of this model with a heterogeneous sample drawn from the general public. The cognitive limitations which affect rationality in intuitive decision making are summarized as background to introduce formal decision methodologies for the use of attitude data in public decision making

  18. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  19. Increasing paternal responsibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutright, P

    1985-01-01

    Increasing numbers of fathers of children born out of wedlock are not contributing to these children's economic support. In 1981, a tiny minority (14%) of the 1.7 million never-married mothers living with a child with an absent father had a child-support award, and of these, just 112,000 actually received some payment in 1981. The high rates of noncompliance, and the low level of legal efforts to enforce child support, are the result of attempts to collect payments through inefficient traditional methods, not the inability of fathers to pay, a Wisconsin study has shown. A basic problem with collecting child support under the present system is that it relies on fathers to control their expenditures and voluntarily to send the payment on a weekly, biweekly or monthly basis, year after year. As a Wisconsin study shows, full compliance with court-ordered payments dropped from 38% in the 1st year to below 20% by the 5th year among 163 ex-husbands tracked. A proposal by researchers at the University of Wisconsin's Institute for Research on Poverty calls for an "absent-parent tax." The Wisconsin Plan, as it is known, is simply a withholding tax based on the father's gross income and the number of his absent children. If his income falls below a certain level, payments will stop automatically, but will resume if and when it rises above the cutoff point. The Wisconsin plan removes all judicial discretion and lawyer's skill as factors in child-support awards, thus eliminating erratic awards. It also insures that support payments will be maintained during periods of conflict between the father and mother. However, before the Wisconsin Plan can effectively protect children both out of wedlock, a feature needs to be added that will establish paternity at birth. Imposing a real child-support obligation on fathers of children born outside of marriage will introduce a potentially powerful economic incentive for responsible male reproductive and parental behavior.

  20. Paternal care decreases foraging activity and body condition, but does not impose survival costs to caring males in a Neotropical arachnid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Requena, Gustavo S; Buzatto, Bruno A; Martins, Eduardo G; Machado, Glauco

    2012-01-01

    Exclusive paternal care is the rarest form of parental investment in nature and theory predicts that the maintenance of this behavior depends on the balance between costs and benefits to males. Our goal was to assess costs of paternal care in the harvestman Iporangaia pustulosa, for which the benefits of this behavior in terms of egg survival have already been demonstrated. We evaluated energetic costs and mortality risks associated to paternal egg-guarding in the field. We quantified foraging activity of males and estimated how their body condition is influenced by the duration of the caring period. Additionally, we conducted a one-year capture-mark-recapture study and estimated apparent survival probabilities of caring and non-caring males to assess potential survival costs of paternal care. Our results indicate that caring males forage less frequently than non-caring individuals (males and females) and that their body condition deteriorates over the course of the caring period. Thus, males willing to guard eggs may provide to females a fitness-enhancing gift of cost-free care of their offspring. Caring males, however, did not show lower survival probabilities when compared to both non-caring males and females. Reduction in mortality risks as a result of remaining stationary, combined with the benefits of improving egg survival, may have played an important and previously unsuspected role favoring the evolution of paternal care. Moreover, males exhibiting paternal care could also provide an honest signal of their quality as offspring defenders, and thus female preference for caring males could be responsible for maintaining the trait.

  1. Paternal care decreases foraging activity and body condition, but does not impose survival costs to caring males in a Neotropical arachnid.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo S Requena

    Full Text Available Exclusive paternal care is the rarest form of parental investment in nature and theory predicts that the maintenance of this behavior depends on the balance between costs and benefits to males. Our goal was to assess costs of paternal care in the harvestman Iporangaia pustulosa, for which the benefits of this behavior in terms of egg survival have already been demonstrated. We evaluated energetic costs and mortality risks associated to paternal egg-guarding in the field. We quantified foraging activity of males and estimated how their body condition is influenced by the duration of the caring period. Additionally, we conducted a one-year capture-mark-recapture study and estimated apparent survival probabilities of caring and non-caring males to assess potential survival costs of paternal care. Our results indicate that caring males forage less frequently than non-caring individuals (males and females and that their body condition deteriorates over the course of the caring period. Thus, males willing to guard eggs may provide to females a fitness-enhancing gift of cost-free care of their offspring. Caring males, however, did not show lower survival probabilities when compared to both non-caring males and females. Reduction in mortality risks as a result of remaining stationary, combined with the benefits of improving egg survival, may have played an important and previously unsuspected role favoring the evolution of paternal care. Moreover, males exhibiting paternal care could also provide an honest signal of their quality as offspring defenders, and thus female preference for caring males could be responsible for maintaining the trait.

  2. Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

    2005-03-01

    One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

  3. Radiological safety and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, P.H.; Barg, D.C.; Baird, R.D.; Card, D.H.; de Souza, F.; Elder, J.; Felthauser, K.; Jensen, C.; Winkler, V.

    1982-02-01

    A brief radiological safety and risk assessment of a nuclear power generation center with an adjacent on-site waste disposal facility at a specific site in the State of Utah is presented. The assessment was conducted to assist in determining the feasibility and practicality of developing a nuclear energy center (NEC) in Utah consisting of nine 1250 MWe nuclear pressurized water reactor (PWR) electrical generating units arranged in 3 clusters of 3 units each known as triads. The site selected for this conceptual study is in the Horse Bench area about 15 miles directly south of the town of Green River, Utah. The radiological issues included direct radiation exposures to on-site workers and the off-site population, release of radioactive material, and effects of these releases for both normal operations and accidental occurrences. The basic finding of this study is that the concept of an NEC in the Green River area, specifically at the Horse Bench site, is radiologically feasible

  4. Risk assessment - The future trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    Many organizations today are faced with cleaning a site or facility, selecting appropriate remedial alternatives, or explaining the potential effects on human health and the environment caused by the releases of toxic compounds into the air, soil, and water, The use of risk assessment (RA) as a management tool is increasing because it offers an integrated approach to the analysis of toxicological, geological, physio-chemical, meteorological, statistical, and biological parameters that must be evaluated in the assessment of potential impacts to human health. The regulatory atmosphere in the 1990s is leaning toward the adoption of further laws requiring the completion of the RA process. Any industry involved in submitting permit applications to Air Quality Management Districts or complying with California's Proposition 65 and AB 2588 will be required to prepare RAs. Several guidance documents are available that support the RA process including the California Site Mitigation Decision Tree Manual published by the State Department of Health Services (DHS), which bases its approach on developing cleanup objectives (Applied Action Levels) on RA. This presentation focuses on the applications RA can have to the petroleum industry and the kinds of data that each case should develop to make maximum use of the RA process

  5. Gender differences in risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine R. Harris

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Across many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women. To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference, 657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various risky activities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, and social, and reported their perceptions of (1 probability of negative outcomes, (2 severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3 enjoyment expected from the risky activities. Women's greater perceived likelihood of negative outcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lower propensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains. Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in the gambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensity towards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with high potential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to other domains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain. This gender difference was partially mediated by women's more optimistic judgments of the probability of good outcomes and of

  6. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  7. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  8. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  9. Variable effects of maternal and paternal-fetal contribution to the risk for preeclampsia combining GSTP1, eNOS, and LPL gene polymorphisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pappa, Kalliopi I; Roubelakis, Maria; Vlachos, George; Marinopoulos, Spyros; Zissou, Antonia; Anagnou, Nicholas P; Antsaklis, Aris

    2011-04-01

    To evaluate the maternal, paternal, and fetal genotype contribution to preeclampsia. STUDY DESIGN, MATERIALS, AND METHODS: We combined the analysis of polymorphisms of the GSTP1, eNOS, and LPL genes - affecting biotransformation enzymes and endothelial function - in a cohort of 167 preeclamptic and normal control trios (mother, father, and child) comprising a total of 501 samples in the Greek population, never analyzed before by this approach. For the frequency of the GSTP1 Ile(105)/Val(105), the eNOS Glu298Asp and the LPL-93 polymorphisms, statistically significant differences were found between the two groups. However, the transmission rates of the parental alleles to neonates studied by the transmission disequilibrium test, disclosed no increased rate of transmission to preeclampsia children for the variant alleles of Val(105) GSTP1, 298Asp eNOS, and -93G LPL. These novel data, suggest that interaction of all three types of genotypes (mother, father and neonate), reveals no effects on the development of preeclampsia, but provide the impetus for further studies to decipher the individual contribution of each genetic parameter of preeclampsia.

  10. Early maternal and paternal bonding, childhood physical abuse and adult psychopathic personality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Y.; Raine, A.; Chan, F.; Venables, P. H.; Mednick, S. A.

    2013-01-01

    Background A significant gap in the literature on risk factors for psychopathy is the relative lack of research on parental bonding. Method This study examines the cross-sectional relationship between maternal and paternal bonding, childhood physical abuse and psychopathic personality at age 28 years in a community sample of 333 males and females. It also assesses prospectively whether children separated from their parents in the first 3 years of life are more likely to have a psychopathic-like personality 25 years later. Results Hierarchical regression analyses indicated that: (1) poor parental bonding (lack of maternal care and low paternal overprotection) and childhood physical abuse were both associated with a psychopathic personality; (2) parental bonding was significantly associated with psychopathic personality after taking into account sex, social adversity, ethnicity and abuse; (3) those separated from parents in the first 3 years of life were particularly characterized by low parental bonding and a psychopathic personality in adulthood; and (4) the deviant behavior factor of psychopathy was more related to lack of maternal care whereas the emotional detachment factor was related to both lack of maternal care and paternal overprotection. Conclusions Findings draw attention to the importance of different components of early bonding in relation to adult psychopathy, and may have potential implications for early intervention and prevention of psychopathy. PMID:20441692

  11. Consistent paternity skew through ontogeny in Peron's tree frog (Litoria peronii.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig D H Sherman

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A large number of studies in postcopulatory sexual selection use paternity success as a proxy for fertilization success. However, selective mortality during embryonic development can lead to skews in paternity in situations of polyandry and sperm competition. Thus, when assessment of paternity fails to incorporate mortality skews during early ontogeny, this may interfere with correct interpretation of results and subsequent evolutionary inference. In a previous series of in vitro sperm competition experiments with amphibians (Litoria peronii, we showed skewed paternity patterns towards males more genetically similar to the female. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here we use in vitro fertilizations and sperm competition trials to test if this pattern of paternity of fully developed tadpoles reflects patterns of paternity at fertilization and if paternity skews changes during embryonic development. We show that there is no selective mortality through ontogeny and that patterns of paternity of hatched tadpoles reflects success of competing males in sperm competition at fertilization. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: While this study shows that previous inferences of fertilization success from paternity data are valid for this species, rigorous testing of these assumptions is required to ensure that differential embryonic mortality does not confound estimations of true fertilization success.

  12. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  13. Model of MSD Risk Assessment at Workplace

    OpenAIRE

    K. Sekulová; M. Šimon

    2015-01-01

    This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

  14. Impact of maternal and paternal smoking on birth outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, Sachiko; Naruse, Hiroo; Yorifuji, Takashi; Kato, Tsuguhiko; Murakoshi, Takeshi; Doi, Hiroyuki; Subramanian, S V

    2017-09-01

    The adverse effects of maternal and paternal smoking on child health have been studied. However, few studies demonstrate the interaction effects of maternal/paternal smoking, and birth outcomes other than birth weight have not been evaluated. The present study examined individual effects of maternal/paternal smoking and their interactions on birth outcomes. A follow-up hospital-based study from pregnancy to delivery was conducted from 1997 to 2010 with parents and newborn infants who delivered at a large hospital in Hamamatsu, Japan. The relationships between smoking and growth were evaluated with logistic regression. The individual effects of maternal smoking are related to low birth weight (LBW), short birth length and small head circumference. The individual effects of paternal smoking are related to short birth length and small head circumference. In the adjusted model, both parents' smoking showed clear associations with LBW (odds ratio [OR] = 1.64, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18-2.27) and short birth length (-1 standard deviation [SD] OR = 1.38, 95% CI 1.07-1.79; -2 SD OR = 2.75, 95% CI 1.84-4.10). Maternal smoking was significantly associated with birth weight and length, but paternal smoking was not. However, if both parents smoked, the risk of shorter birth length increased. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

    1994-01-01

    The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

  16. Contracts and Capabilities: An Evolutionary Perspective on the Autonomy-Paternalism Debate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Deakin (Simon)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractAn evolutionary conception of contract law is suggested as a basis for assessing claims made in the autonomy-paternalism debate. Paternalism forms one part – although by no means the whole – of a discriminating approach to contract enforcement. Selective enforcement is a long-standing

  17. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  18. Apperception and assessment of technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoyos, C.; Hauke, G.

    1986-01-01

    Risk is defined to be the possibility to induce damage or loss. Any person confronted with risk in his activities has to assess the risk in every case. The author explains a number of actions and events that have been worked out to train people in better management of risk, especially in the working environment. (DG) [de

  19. Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, W Jon

    2007-03-01

    Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

  20. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahm-Crites, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Germantown, MD (United States). Washington Operations Office

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  1. Thyroid Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    The R package thyroid implements a risk prediction model developed by NCI researchers to calculate the absolute risk of developing a second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC) in individuals who were diagnosed with a cancer during their childhood.

  2. Religion, Convention, and Paternal Involvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilcox, W. Bradford

    2002-01-01

    Examines the influence of religious affiliation and attendance on the involvement of residential fathers in one-on-one activities, dinner with their families, and youth activities and found religious effects for each of these three measures. The study indicates that religion is related to paternal involvement in all three areas that were examined.…

  3. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  4. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  5. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  6. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  7. Risk assessment - black art or science?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, G.

    1988-01-01

    Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

  8. Facts and values in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cross, Frank B.

    1998-01-01

    Risk, as commonly understood, is a complex melange of facts, values, and fears. While this complexity of public risk perception is now broadly recognized, its implications are insufficiently explored. Public risk perceptions offer p poor guide for public policymaking. Popular assessments of risk are tainted by misinformation and unreliable heuristics. While subjective considerations, often called values, play a role in public perception of risk, those 'values' are often inappropriate for government decisionmaking. Reliance on public perceptions of risk means more premature deaths. Public risk perception also is systematically skewed contrary to the interests of the disadvantaged. Strict probabilistic risk measures generally provide a superior guide for government regulatory policy

  9. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... cycle. The models for assessing toxic impacts in LCA are to a large extent based on those developed for RA, e.g. EUSES, and require basic information about the inherent properties of the emissions like solubility, LogKow,ED50 etc. Additionally, it is a prerequisite to know how to characterize...

  10. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  11. Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mousavi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

  12. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  13. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

  14. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  15. Energy and environment: Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombo, U.

    1993-01-01

    Two problems connected to the concept of 'risk' were analyzed: nuclear power production and global climate changes. In fact, nuclear power, despite of the risk management of the plants, does not produce gaseous emissions and can be used to reduce environmental risks. Even if a cost benefit analysis of nuclear power is very difficult, to perform it is author's opinion that, very probably, industrial countries will continue to use this form of energy

  16. CEA: risk management assessment 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigot, Bernard; Bonnevie, Edwige; Maillot, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    This report proposes a qualitative and quantitative overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management during 2011. These activities concerned the impact on the environment, the safety of installations, the management of professional risks (safety and health at work), the radiological protection of workers, the transports of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, the management of emergency situations, the management of law risks, controls and audits

  17. CEA - 2014 risk management assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnevie, Edwige; Verwaerde, Daniel; Maillot, Bernard

    2015-06-01

    After introducing presentations of CEA managers in charge of risk management and controls, this document presents and comments the actions undertaken by the CEA and the obtained results in terms of risk management in different fields: protection and control of the environment, installation safety, health, safety and radiation protection, transport of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of legal risks, internal audits and controls. Other topics are addressed like the presentation of the risk management department, and the role of the CEA in the relationship between research and industry

  18. Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

  19. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    Science.gov (United States)

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  20. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

  1. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  2. Paternal Exposures and Pregnancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... increased risk for birth defects. Can the father’s workplace exposures affect my pregnancy? There have been a number of studies looking ... else could a father’s work exposure affect a pregnancy? Men exposed to ... chemicals in the workplace may carry these agents on their clothes and ...

  3. Paternal leakage of mitochondrial DNA in experimental crosses of populations of the potato cyst nematode Globodera pallida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoolahan, Angelique H; Blok, Vivian C; Gibson, Tracey; Dowton, Mark

    2011-12-01

    Animal mtDNA is typically assumed to be maternally inherited. Paternal mtDNA has been shown to be excluded from entering the egg or eliminated post-fertilization in several animals. However, in the contact zones of hybridizing species and populations, the reproductive barriers between hybridizing organisms may not be as efficient at preventing paternal mtDNA inheritance, resulting in paternal leakage. We assessed paternal mtDNA leakage in experimental crosses of populations of a cyst-forming nematode, Globodera pallida. A UK population, Lindley, was crossed with two South American populations, P5A and P4A. Hybridization of these populations was supported by evidence of nuclear DNA from both the maternal and paternal populations in the progeny. To assess paternal mtDNA leakage, a ~3.4 kb non-coding mtDNA region was analyzed in the parental populations and in the progeny. Paternal mtDNA was evident in the progeny of both crosses involving populations P5A and P4A. Further, paternal mtDNA replaced the maternal mtDNA in 22 and 40 % of the hybrid cysts from these crosses, respectively. These results indicate that under appropriate conditions, paternal leakage occurs in the mtDNA of parasitic nematodes, and supports the hypothesis that hybrid zones facilitate paternal leakage. Thus, assumptions of strictly maternal mtDNA inheritance may be frequently violated, particularly when divergent populations interbreed.

  4. Information security risk assessment, aggregation, and mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenstra, A.K.; Voss, T.; Wang, H.; Pieprzyk, J.; Varadharajan, V.

    2004-01-01

    As part of their compliance process with the Basel 2 operational risk management requirements, banks must define how they deal with information security risk management. In this paper we describe work in progress on a new quantitative model to assess and aggregate information security risks that is

  5. Genetic toxicology and cancer risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Choy, Wai Nang

    2001-01-01

    ... their risks to humans are obvious goals for the protection of public health. When exposure is unavoidable, an accurate estimation of human risk as a result of exposure is essential for making regulatory decisions. Quantitative cancer risk assessment is an intricate process that utilizes knowledge from many different scien...

  6. Bahia State, Brazil : Ariculture Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Arias, Diego; Caballero, Jorge

    2015-01-01

    The present study is part of an effort by the World Bank and the State of Bahia to assess agriculture sector risks as a contribution to the strategic economic development and poverty reduction agenda of the state government. It is composed of two phases: an agricultural sector risk identification and prioritization (volume one) and a risk management strategy and action plan (volume two). T...

  7. Low-frequency fields - health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernhardt, J.

    1993-01-01

    The author briefly reviews the biological actions and effects of low-frequency fields, epidemiological studies and discusses health risks in detail. He describes the assessment principles of the International Commission on Non-ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP), medical principles for risk assessment, determination of limits and thesholds, and aspects of prevention. This is supplemented to by several fables and literature list. (Uhe) [de

  8. Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zernike, W; Henderson, A

    1999-06-01

    This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

  9. Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee

  10. Explaining probalistic risk assessment in common language

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, J.W.

    1994-01-01

    Probabilistic human health risk assessment is explained in ordinary language using a hypothetical example and the ingestion equation from EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund. A section on understanding probabilities and probability distributions used in a Monte Carlo simulation is included as well as an appendix showing the computer run and the technical assumptions behind it

  11. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

  12. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  13. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  14. Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-05-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  15. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2012-10-16

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

  16. Paternity leave in Sweden: costs, savings and health gains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Månsdotter, Anna; Lindholm, Lars; Winkvist, Anna

    2007-06-01

    The initial objective is to examine the relationship between paternity leave in 1978-1979 and male mortality during 1981-2001, and the second objective is to calculate the cost-effectiveness of the 1974 parental insurance reform in Sweden. Based on a population of all Swedish couples who had their first child together in 1978 (45,801 males), the risk of death for men who took paternity leave, compared with men who did not, was estimated by odds ratios. The cost-effectiveness analysis considered costs for information, administration and production losses, minus savings due to decreased sickness leave and inpatient care, compared to health gains in life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). It is demonstrated that fathers who took paternity leave have a statistically significant decreased death risk of 16%. Costs minus savings (discounted values) stretch from a net cost of EUR 19 million to a net saving of EUR 11 million, and the base case cost-effectiveness is EUR 8000 per QALY. The study indicates that that the right to paternity leave is a desirable reform based on commonly stated public health, economic, and feminist goals. The critical issue in future research should be to examine impact from health-related selection.

  17. Mechanisms and consequences of paternally transmitted chromosomal abnormalities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marchetti, F; Wyrobek, A J

    2005-04-05

    Paternally transmitted chromosomal damage has been associated with pregnancy loss, developmental and morphological defects, infant mortality, infertility, and genetic diseases in the offspring including cancer. There is epidemiological evidence linking paternal exposure to occupational or environmental agents with an increased risk of abnormal reproductive outcomes. There is also a large body of literature on germ cell mutagenesis in rodents showing that treatment of male germ cells with mutagens has dramatic consequences on reproduction producing effects such as those observed in human epidemiological studies. However, we know very little about the etiology, transmission and early embryonic consequences of paternally-derived chromosomal abnormalities. The available evidence suggests that: (1) there are distinct patterns of germ cell-stage differences in the sensitivity of induction of transmissible genetic damage with male postmeiotic cells being the most sensitive; (2) cytogenetic abnormalities at first metaphase after fertilization are critical intermediates between paternal exposure and abnormal reproductive outcomes; and, (3) there are maternally susceptibility factors that may have profound effects on the amount of sperm DNA damage that is converted into chromosomal aberrations in the zygote and directly affect the risk for abnormal reproductive outcomes.

  18. Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birnbacher, D.

    1991-01-01

    Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

  19. Quantified risk assessment - a nuclear industry viewpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomson, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a brief summary of the methodology used for the assessment of risk arising from fuel handling and dismantling operations in advanced gas-cooled reactor power stations. The difficulties with and problems arising from such risk assessments are discussed. In particular, difficulties arise from (i) the onerous risk criteria that nuclear plants are expected to satisfy, (ii) the necessary complexity of the plant, (iii) the conflicting requirements for the fault consequence assessments to be bounding but not grossly pessimistic, and (iv) areas of fault frequency assessment which contain possibly subjective considerations such as software and common mode failure. (author)

  20. The evolution of violence risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2014-10-01

    Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

  1. Resolving Questioned Paternity Issues Using a Philippine Genetic Database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Corazon De Ungria

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available The utility of the Philippines genetic database consisting of seven Short Tandem Repeat (STR markers for testing of ten questioned paternity cases was investigated. The markers used were HUMvWA, HUMTH01, HUMCSF1PO, HUMFOLP23, D8S306, HUMFES/FPS, and HUMF13A01. These markers had a combined Power of Paternity Exclusion of 99.17%. Due to the gravity of some cases handled in the laboratory, routine procedures must be assessed to determine the capacity of the analysis to exclude a non-father of predict paternity. Clients showed a preference for only testing father and child to lower costs and reduce conflicts, particularly when the mother objects to the conduct of DNA tests, or when she is deceased or cannot be located. The Probability of Paternity was calculated with and without the mother’s profile in each of the cases. In all instances, results were more informative when the mother’s DNA profile was included. Moreover, variations in the allelic distribution of five STR markers among eight Caucasian, one African-American, and two Amerindian (Argentina populations resulted in significant differences in Probability of Paternity estimates compared to those calculated using the Philippine Database.Based on the results of the present study, it is recommended that tests on alleged father-child samples be performed to screen for at least two mismatches. In the absence of theses mismatches, further analysis that includes the mother’s DNA profile is recommended. Moreover, it is recommended that a Philippines genetic database be used for DNA-based paternity testing in the Philippines.

  2. On risk assessment of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunii, Katsuhiko

    2005-07-01

    Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

  3. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo Alina

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

  4. Approaches and methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, W.D.

    1983-01-01

    The classification system of risk assessment includes the categories: 1) risk comparisons, 2) cost-effectiveness of risk reduction, 3) balancing of costs, risks and benefits against one another, 4. Metasystems. An overview of methods and systems reveals that no single method can be applied to all cases and situations. The visibility of the process and the absolute consideration of all aspects of judging are, however, of first and fore most importance. (DG) [de

  5. Risk assessment: A regional approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palecek, M [Occupational Safety Research Institute, Prague (Czech Republic)

    1992-07-01

    An assessment of the region of North Bohemia which suffered from forty years socialist economy and heavy emissions from German and Polish factories and power stations is presented. The case strongly underlines the need for regional and international cooperation both in the assessment of hazards and finding solution to public health and environmental problems.

  6. Risk assessment: A regional approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palecek, M.

    1992-01-01

    An assessment of the region of North Bohemia which suffered from forty years socialist economy and heavy emissions from German and Polish factories and power stations is presented. The case strongly underlines the need for regional and international cooperation both in the assessment of hazards and finding solution to public health and environmental problems

  7. Autism and increased paternal age related changes in global levels of gene expression regulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark D Alter

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available A causal role of mutations in multiple general transcription factors in neurodevelopmental disorders including autism suggested that alterations in global levels of gene expression regulation might also relate to disease risk in sporadic cases of autism. This premise can be tested by evaluating for changes in the overall distribution of gene expression levels. For instance, in mice, variability in hippocampal-dependent behaviors was associated with variability in the pattern of the overall distribution of gene expression levels, as assessed by variance in the distribution of gene expression levels in the hippocampus. We hypothesized that a similar change in variance might be found in children with autism. Gene expression microarrays covering greater than 47,000 unique RNA transcripts were done on RNA from peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBL of children with autism (n = 82 and controls (n = 64. Variance in the distribution of gene expression levels from each microarray was compared between groups of children. Also tested was whether a risk factor for autism, increased paternal age, was associated with variance. A decrease in the variance in the distribution of gene expression levels in PBL was associated with the diagnosis of autism and a risk factor for autism, increased paternal age. Traditional approaches to microarray analysis of gene expression suggested a possible mechanism for decreased variance in gene expression. Gene expression pathways involved in transcriptional regulation were down-regulated in the blood of children with autism and children of older fathers. Thus, results from global and gene specific approaches to studying microarray data were complimentary and supported the hypothesis that alterations at the global level of gene expression regulation are related to autism and increased paternal age. Global regulation of transcription, thus, represents a possible point of convergence for multiple etiologies of autism and other

  8. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    The EU classification of substances for e.g. reproductive toxicants is hazard based and does not to address the risk suchsubstances may pose through normal, or extreme, use. Such hazard classification complies with the consumer's right to know. It is also an incentive to careful use and storage...

  9. Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, Richard W

    2016-12-01

    There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

  10. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-01-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  11. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  12. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  13. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

  14. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

    2009-01-01

    modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

  15. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  16. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  17. Paternal body mass index (BMI is associated with offspring intrauterine growth in a gender dependent manner.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    You-Peng Chen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Environmental alternations leading to fetal programming of cardiovascular diseases in later life have been attributed to maternal factors. However, animal studies showed that paternal obesity may program cardio-metabolic diseases in the offspring. In the current study we tested the hypothesis that paternal BMI may be associated with fetal growth. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed the relationship between paternal body mass index (BMI and birth weight, ultrasound parameters describing the newborn's body shape as well as parameters describing the newborns endocrine system such as cortisol, aldosterone, renin activity and fetal glycated serum protein in a birth cohort of 899 father/mother/child triplets. Since fetal programming is an offspring sex specific process, male and female offspring were analyzed separately. Multivariable regression analyses considering maternal BMI, paternal and maternal age, hypertension during pregnancy, maternal total glycated serum protein, parity and either gestational age (for birth weight or time of ultrasound investigation (for ultrasound parameters as confounding showed that paternal BMI is associated with growth of the male but not female offspring. Paternal BMI correlated with birth parameters of male offspring only: birth weight; biparietal diameter, head circumference; abdominal diameter, abdominal circumference; and pectoral diameter. Cortisol was likewise significantly correlated with paternal BMI in male newborns only. CONCLUSIONS: Paternal BMI affects growth of the male but not female offspring. Paternal BMI may thus represent a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases of male offspring in later life. It remains to be demonstrated whether this is linked to an offspring sex specific paternal programming of cortisol secretion.

  18. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  19. Judicial aspects in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lukes, R.

    1977-01-01

    Decisions of administrative authorities concerning the permission to use fissile material contain a prognosis about the probability of damage which may be caused by using this material. The judicial criteria used in order to determine the probability of such a damage occurring can be improved by risk analysis. This will not, of course, reduce administrative decisions to simple 'yes-or-no decisions', but the calculation of probabilities will gain more exactness. (orig.) [de

  20. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...... with risk assessment of these organisms in each Nordic country....

  1. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: A discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire, T.; Stevenson, H.; Pieters, M.N.; Rennen, M.; Slob, W.; Hakkert, B.C.

    1999-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute toward the further harmonization of human health risk assessment. It first discusses the development of a formal, harmonized set of assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed, that is, the type of

  2. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: a discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire TG; Stevenson H; Pieters MN; Rennen M; Slob W; Hakkert BC; Nederlandse organisatie voor; CSR; LEO; TNO-ITV

    1998-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute towards further harmonisation of the human health risk assessment. It discusses the development of a formal, harmonised set of default assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed. Options are presented

  3. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-01-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

  4. Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

    1984-01-01

    Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

  5. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  6. Maternal and paternal age, birth order and interpregnancy interval evaluation for cleft lip-palate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martelli, Daniella Reis Barbosa; Cruz, Kaliany Wanessa da; Barros, Letízia Monteiro de; Silveira, Marise Fernandes; Swerts, Mário Sérgio Oliveira; Martelli Júnior, Hercílio

    2010-01-01

    Cleft lip and palate (CL/P) are the most common congenital craniofacial anomalies. To evaluate environmental risk factors for non-syndromic CL/P in a reference care center in Minas Gerais. we carried out a case-controlled study, assessing 100 children with clefts and 100 children without clinical alterations. The analysis dimensions (age, skin color, gender, fissure classification, maternal and paternal age, birth order and interpregnancy interval), obtained from a questionnaire; and later we build a data base and the analyses were carried out by the SPSS 17.0 software. The results were analyzed with the relative risk for each variable, in order to estimate the odds ratio with a 95% confidence interval, followed by a bivariate and multivariate analysis. among 200 children, 54% were males and 46% were females. As far as skin color is concerned most were brown, white and black, respectively. Cleft palates were the most common fissures found (54%), followed by lip cleft (30%) and palate cleft (16%). although with a limited sample, we noticed an association between maternal age and an increased risk for cleft lip and palate; however, paternal age, pregnancy order and interpregnancy interval were not significant.

  7. The assessment and perception of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daglish, J.

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors. (U.K.)

  8. Nanomaterials: Regulation and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss; Grieger, Khara Deanne; Baun, Anders

    2013-01-01

    , the Water Framework Directive, pharmaceuticals regulation, and the Novel Foods Regulation. Current regulation of nanomaterials entail three overall challenges: 1) limitations in regard to terminology and definitions of key terms such as a “substance,” “novel food,” etc.; 2) safety assessment requirements...

  9. Assessing Your Board's Risk Tolerance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

    2014-01-01

    In the wake of the financial crisis, trustees of many endowed nonprofit institutions realized that their portfolio was riskier than they thought and their own ability to tolerate loss wasn't as strong as they imagined. What can board and investment committee members do to improve their ability to assess their--and their institution's--capacity for…

  10. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  11. Cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Amaral de Paula

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to assess cardiovascular risk by means of the traditional Framingham score and the version modified through the incorporation of emerging risk factors, such as family history of acute myocardial infarction, metabolic syndrome and chronic kidney disease. METHOD: participants were 50 hypertensive patients under outpatient treatment. The clinical data were collected through a semi-structured interview and the laboratory data from patients' histories. RESULTS: it was verified that the traditional Framingham score was predominantly low (74%, with 14% showing medium risk and 12% high risk. After the inclusion of emerging risk factors, the chance of a coronary event was low in 22% of the cases, medium in 56% and high in 22%. CONCLUSIONS: the comparison between the traditional Framingham risk score and the modified version demonstrated a significant difference in the cardiovascular risk classification, whose correlation shows discreet agreement between the two scales. Lifestyle elements seem to play a determinant role in the increase in cardiovascular risk levels.

  12. Models for assessing and managing credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neogradi Slađana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay deals with the definition of a model for assessing and managing credit risk. Risk is an inseparable component of any average and normal credit transaction. Looking at the different aspects of the identification and classification of risk in the banking industry as well as representation of the key components of modern risk management. In the first part of the essay will analyze how the impact of credit risk on bank and empirical models for determining the financial difficulties in which the company can be found. Bank on the basis of these models can reduce number of approved risk assets. In the second part, we consider models for improving credit risk with emphasis on Basel I, II and III, and the third part, we conclude that the most appropriate model and gives the best effect for measuring credit risk in domestic banks.

  13. Paternalism and utilitarianism in research with human participants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resnik, David B

    2015-03-01

    In this article I defend a rule utilitarian approach to paternalistic policies in research with human participants. Some rules that restrict individual autonomy can be justified on the grounds that they help to maximize the overall balance of benefits over risks in research. The consequences that should be considered when formulating policy include not only likely impacts on research participants, but also impacts on investigators, institutions, sponsors, and the scientific community. The public reaction to adverse events in research (such as significant injury to participants or death) is a crucial concern that must be taken into account when assessing the consequences of different policy options, because public backlash can lead to outcomes that have a negative impact on science, such as cuts in funding, overly restrictive regulation and oversight, and reduced willingness of individuals to participate in research. I argue that concern about the public reaction to adverse events justifies some restrictions on the risks that competent, adult volunteers can face in research that offers them no significant benefits. The paternalism defended here is not pure, because it involves restrictions on the rights of investigators in order to protect participants. It also has a mixed rationale, because individual autonomy may be restricted not only to protect participants from harm but also to protect other stakeholders. Utility is not the sole justification for paternalistic research policies, since other considerations, such as justice and respect for individual rights/autonomy, must also be taken into account.

  14. Disease state fingerprint for fall risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Similä, Heidi; Immonen, Milla

    2014-01-01

    Fall prevention is an important and complex multifactorial challenge, since one third of people over 65 years old fall at least once every year. A novel application of Disease State Fingerprint (DSF) algorithm is presented for holistic visualization of fall risk factors and identifying persons with falls history or decreased level of physical functioning based on fall risk assessment data. The algorithm is tested with data from 42 older adults, that went through a comprehensive fall risk assessment. Within the study population the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale score, Berg Balance Scale (BBS) score and the number of drugs in use were the three most relevant variables, that differed between the fallers and non-fallers. This study showed that the DSF visualization is beneficial in inspection of an individual's significant fall risk factors, since people have problems in different areas and one single assessment scale is not enough to expose all the people at risk.

  15. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Dunham

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

  16. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  17. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-03-01

    This report describes risk assessment methodology associated with the remedial action programs at the Hanford Reservation. Topics addressed include human health evaluation, pollutant and radionuclide transport through the environment, and environmental transport pathways

  18. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  19. Reducing the harms associated with risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montague, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Risk assessments are the intellectual products of dedicated public health and environmental professionals. Like many other products, risk assessments carry with them the potential for both good and harm. This paper briefly examines some of the harms to which risk assessments have contributed, and then suggests that the legal 'duty to warn' doctrine offers a logical and practical way to reduce some of these harms. The paper suggests concepts that could be incorporated into warnings accompanying every formal risk assessment as routine 'boiler plate' addenda, just as other potentially harmful products, such as lawn mowers and cook stoves, are accompanied by warnings. Finally, the paper briefly examines the 'Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice for Environmental Professionals' (promulgated by the National Association of Environmental Professionals) and shows that the suggested warnings are consistent with recommended practices for environmental professionals

  20. Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atkinson, S.A.; Eide, S.A.; Khericha, S.T.; Thatcher, T.A.

    1993-01-01

    This report discusses Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) incorporating a full-scope external events analysis which has been completed for the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

  1. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  2. Audit Practices: Summary of Risk Assessment Methodologies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2002-01-01

    .... The primary objective of an audit risk assessment is to provide its users with the assurance that audit resources are focused on those areas needing greatest attention and will provide the best value...

  3. Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment (CAMRA), based at Michigan State University and jointly funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the...

  4. Procedures for health risk assessment in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seeley, M.R.; Tonner-Navarro, L.E.; Beck, B.D.; Deskin, R.; Feron, V.J.; Johanson, G.; Bolt, H.M.

    2001-01-01

    This report compares cancer classification systems, health risk assessment approaches, and procedures used for establishing occupational exposure limits (OELs), in various European countries and scientific organizations. The objectives were to highlight and compare key aspects of these processes and

  5. Science and judgment in risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Risk Assessment of Hazardous Air Pollutants

    .... This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments...

  6. Business managers turn to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, Frank

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessments have evolved to help technical managers in nuclear and other industries to design and operate plant with safety in mind. However, they are now developing into the area of business management. (author)

  7. Vulnerability Identification Errors in Security Risk Assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Taubenberger, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    At present, companies rely on information technology systems to achieve their business objectives, making them vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. Information security risk assessments help organisations to identify their risks and vulnerabilities. An accurate identification of risks and vulnerabilities is a challenge, because the input data is uncertain. So-called ’vulnerability identification errors‘ can occur if false positive vulnerabilities are identified, or if vulnerabilities remain u...

  8. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Dawson, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment prioriti...

  9. Creation of a Risk Assessment Methodology

    OpenAIRE

    Lefebvre, Nicolas

    2007-01-01

    This report is a presentation of the work realised during an internship at the consultancy division of Thales Security Systems from September 2005 to June 2006. Thales Security Systems is part of Thales, an international group in defence, aeronautics, etc. The work realised consisted in the creation of a new risk assessment methodology for a commercial offer called HELP, standing for Human, Environmental, Logical and Physical security. As a basis for the work, 5 existing risk assessment metho...

  10. Environmental risk assessment of pesticides in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teklu, B.M.

    2016-01-01

    The current increase in application rate and usage frequency of application of pesticides in Ethiopia pose direct risks to surface water aquatic organisms and humans and cattle using surface water as a source of drinking water in rural parts of the country. A model based risk assessment as

  11. Mergers and acquisitions: valuation and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvin, B.N.

    1996-01-01

    An independent review of all facets of risk management, as it pertains to mergers and acquisitions within the petroleum industry, with no transactional motivation, was provided by a representative of a firm specializing in all phases of risk assessment. The following topics received attention: (1) the forward curve versus industry expectations, (2) investor expectations, (3) financial versus physical transactions, and (4) synthetic debt

  12. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  13. Gender and risk assessment in contraceptive technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Kammen, Jessika; Oudshoorn, Nelly E.J.

    This paper concerns a comparison of risk assessment practices of contraceptives for women and men. Our analysis shows how the evaluation of health risks of contraceptives does not simply reflect the specific effects of chemical compounds in the human body. Rather, we show how side-effects were rated

  14. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannu Anttonen

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in SME's and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in occupational safety and health are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.

  15. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  16. Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Fielder

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

  17. Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

    2012-04-01

    To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

  18. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  19. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  20. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  1. Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

    2006-01-01

    Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10 -5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10 -7 /year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency

  2. Fathers and Asthma Care: Paternal Involvement, Beliefs, and Management Skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Deborah; Masek, Bruce; Barreto, Esteban; Baer, Lee; Lapey, Allen; Budge, Eduardo; McQuaid, Elizabeth L

    2015-09-01

    To compare asthma care roles of maternal and paternal caregivers, and examine associations between caregiver involvement and the outcomes of adherence, morbidity, and parental quality of life (QoL). Mothers and fathers in 63 families of children, ages 5-9 years, with persistent asthma completed semistructured interviews and questionnaires. Adherence was measured via electronic monitoring. Paired t tests compared parental asthma care roles, and analysis of covariance, controlling for socioeconomic status, evaluated associations of asthma outcomes with caregiver involvement scores. Mothers had higher scores on measures of involvement, beliefs in medication necessity, and on four subscales of the Family Asthma Management System Scale interview (Asthma Knowledge, Relationship with Provider, Symptom Assessment, and Response to Symptoms). Maternal QoL was lowest when both maternal and paternal involvement was high. Paternal involvement was associated with increased morbidity. There is room for enhancement of fathers' asthma care roles. Higher levels of paternal involvement may be driven by family need. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Pediatric Psychology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Paternal ADHD Symptoms and Child Conduct Problems: Is Father Involvement Always Beneficial?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romirowsky, Abigail Mintz; Chronis-Tuscano, Andrea

    2013-01-01

    Background Maternal psychopathology robustly predicts poor developmental and treatment outcomes for children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Despite the high heritability of ADHD, few studies have examined associations between paternal ADHD symptoms and child adjustment, and none have also considered degree of paternal involvement in childrearing. Identification of modifiable risk factors for child conduct problems is particularly important in this population given the serious adverse outcomes resulting from this comorbidity. Methods This cross-sectional study examined the extent to which paternal involvement in childrearing moderated the association between paternal ADHD symptoms and child conduct problems among 37 children with ADHD and their biological fathers. Results Neither paternal ADHD symptoms nor involvement was independently associated with child conduct problems. However, the interaction between paternal ADHD symptoms and involvement was significant, such that paternal ADHD symptoms were positively associated with child conduct problems only when fathers were highly involved in childrearing. Conclusions The presence of adult ADHD symptoms may determine whether father involvement in childrearing has a positive or detrimental influence on comorbid child conduct problems. PMID:25250402

  4. Paternal ADHD symptoms and child conduct problems: is father involvement always beneficial?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romirowsky, A M; Chronis-Tuscano, A

    2014-09-01

    Maternal psychopathology robustly predicts poor developmental and treatment outcomes for children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Despite the high heritability of ADHD, few studies have examined associations between paternal ADHD symptoms and child adjustment, and none have also considered degree of paternal involvement in childrearing. Identification of modifiable risk factors for child conduct problems is particularly important in this population given the serious adverse outcomes resulting from this comorbidity. This cross-sectional study examined the extent to which paternal involvement in childrearing moderated the association between paternal ADHD symptoms and child conduct problems among 37 children with ADHD and their biological fathers. Neither paternal ADHD symptoms nor involvement was independently associated with child conduct problems. However, the interaction between paternal ADHD symptoms and involvement was significant, such that paternal ADHD symptoms were positively associated with child conduct problems only when fathers were highly involved in childrearing. The presence of adult ADHD symptoms may determine whether father involvement in childrearing has a positive or detrimental influence on comorbid child conduct problems.

  5. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Risk assessment methodologies for predicting phosphorus losses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoumans, O.F.; Chardon, W.J.

    2003-01-01

    Risk assessment parameters are needed to assess the contribution of phosphorus (P) losses from soil to surface water, and the effectiveness of nutrient and land management strategies for the reduction of P loss. These parameters need to take into account the large temporal and spatial variation in P

  7. Quantitative assessments of indoor air pollution and the risk of childhood acute leukemia in Shanghai

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, Yu; Zhang, Yan; Kamijima, Michihiro; Sakai, Kiyoshi; Khalequzzaman, Md; Nakajima, Tamie; Shi, Rong; Wang, Xiaojin; Chen, Didi; Ji, Xiaofan; Han, Kaiyi; Tian, Ying

    2014-01-01

    We investigated the association between indoor air pollutants and childhood acute leukemia (AL). A total of 105 newly diagnosed cases and 105 1:1 gender-, age-, and hospital-matched controls were included. Measurements of indoor pollutants (including nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and 17 types of volatile organic compounds (VOCs)) were taken with diffusive samplers for 64 pairs of cases and controls. Higher concentrations of NO 2 and almost half of VOCs were observed in the cases than in the controls and were associated with the increased risk of childhood AL. The use of synthetic materials for wall decoration and furniture in bedroom was related to the risk of childhood AL. Renovating the house in the last 5 years, changing furniture in the last 5 years, closing the doors and windows overnight in the winter and/or summer, paternal smoking history and outdoor pollutants affected VOC concentrations. Our results support the association between childhood AL and indoor air pollution. - Highlights: • We firstly assessed the effects of indoor air pollution on childhood AL in China. • Indoor air pollutants were assessed by questionnaire and quantitative measurements. • NO 2 and 17 types of VOCs were measured in bedrooms of both cases and controls. • Higher concentrations of indoor air pollutants increased the risk of childhood AL. • Indoor behavioral factors and outdoor pollution might affect indoor air pollution. - Higher concentrations of indoor air pollutants were related to an elevated risk of childhood AL

  8. Risk assessment of soil contamination criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, C.M.; Marter, W.L.; Montaque, D.F.; Holton, G.A.

    1987-06-01

    Criteria have been developed to select radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at waste sites detailed analysis and risk assessment. These criteria were based on soil and water quality guidelines developed by various government agencies to determine if the criteria were appropriate. We performed a risk assessment of a hypothetical site which contained radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at levels equal to the criteria values. Risks to the public from atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater exposure pathways were examined. Health risks to the public from atmospheric releases of radioactive and nonradioactive materials from a waste at soil criteria contamination levels are low. Health risks to the maximally exposed individual to chemical carcinogens are considerably below traditional EPA action levels. And health risks to the maximally exposed individual to atmospherically released radioactive contaminants is 1.88 x 10 -7 , more than a factor of 5 less than 10 -6 . Based on our atmospheric exposure pathways analysis and risk assessment, the applied soil criteria are appropriate for screening out unimportant risk contributors to human health from atmospheric exposure pathways. 13 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

  9. PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

    1996-01-01

    A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

  10. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

  11. Assessment of risk from radiation sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subbaratnam, T.; Madhvanath, U.; Somasundaram, S.

    1976-01-01

    Assessment of risk from exposure to ionizing radiations from man-made radiation sources and nuclear installations has to be viewed from three aspects, namely, dose-effect relationship (genetic and somatic) for humans, calculation of doses or dose-commitments to population groups, assessment of risk to radiation workers and the population at large from the current levels of exposure from nuclear industry and comparison of risk estimates with other industries in a modern society. These aspects are discussed in brief. On the basis of available data, it is shown that estimated incidence of genetic diseases and cancers due to exposure of population to radiation from nuclear industry is negligible in comparison with their natural incidence, and radiation risks to the workers in nuclear industry are much lower than the risks in other occupations. (M.G.B.)

  12. An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

  13. New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  14. The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

  15. High risk process control system assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

    2009-07-01

    The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

  16. Paternal inheritance in mealybugs (Hemiptera: Coccoidea: Pseudococcidae)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kol-Maimon, Hofit; Mendel, Zvi; Franco, José Carlos; Ghanim, Murad

    2014-10-01

    Mealybugs have a haplodiploid reproduction system, with paternal genome elimination (PGE); the males are diploid soon after fertilization, but during embryogenesis, the male paternal set of chromosomes becomes heterochromatic (HC) and therefore inactive. Previous studies have suggested that paternal genes can be passed on from mealybug males to their sons, but not necessarily by any son, to the next generation. We employed crosses between two mealybug species— Planococcus ficus (Signoret) and Planococcus citri (Risso)—and between two populations of P. ficus, which differ in their mode of pheromone attraction, in order to demonstrate paternal inheritance from males to F2 through F1 male hybrids. Two traits were monitored through three generations: mode of male pheromone attraction (pherotype) and sequences of the internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2) gene segment (genotype). Our results demonstrate that paternal inheritance in mealybugs can occur from males to their F2 offspring, through F1 males (paternal line). F2 backcrossed hybrid males expressed paternal pherotypes and ITS2 genotypes although their mother originated through a maternal population. Further results revealed other, hitherto unknown, aspects of inheritance in mealybugs, such as that hybridization between the two species caused absence of paternal traits in F2 hybrid females produced by F1 hybrid females. Furthermore, hybridization between the two species raised the question of whether unattracted males have any role in the interactions between P. ficus and P. citri.

  17. [Forensic hematology genetics--paternity testing].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kratzer, A; Bär, W

    1997-05-01

    In Switzerland paternity investigations are carried out using DNA analysis only since 1991. DNA patterns are inherited and only with the exception of genetically identical twins they are different in everyone and therefore unique to an individual. Hence DNA-systems are an excellent tool to resolve paternity disputes. DNA polymorphisms used for paternity diagnosis are length polymorphisms of the highly polymorphic VNTR loci [variable number of tandem repeats]. The most frequently applied systems are the DNA single locus systems. In addition to the DNA single locus systems the application of PCR (PCR = polymerase chain reaction) based DNA systems has increased particularly in difficult deficiency cases or in cases where only small evidential samples or partially degraded DNA are available. Normally four independent DNA single probes are used to produce a DNA profile from the mother, the child and the alleged father. A child inherits half the DNA patterns from its mother and the other half from its true biological father. If an alleged father doesn't possess the paternal specific DNA pattern in his DNA profile he is excluded from the paternity. In case of non-exclusion the probability for paternity is calculated according to Essen-Möller. When applying four highly polymorphic DNA single locus systems the biostatistical evaluation leads always to W-values exceeding 99.8% [= required value for positive proof of paternity]. DNA analysis is currently the best available method to achieve such effective conclusions in paternity investigations.

  18. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  19. Postural risk assessment of mechanised firewood processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spinelli, Raffaele; Aminti, Giovanni; De Francesco, Fabio

    2017-03-01

    The study assessed the postural risk of mechanised firewood processing with eight machines, representing the main technology solutions available on the market. Assessment was conducted with the Ovako Working posture Analysis System (OWAS) on 1000 still frames randomly extracted from videotaped work samples. The postural risk associated with firewood processing was variable and associated with technology type. Simple, manually operated new machines incurred a higher postural risk compared with semi- or fully automatic machines. In contrast, new semi-automatic and automatic machines were generally free from postural risk. In all cases, attention should be paid to postural risk that may occur during blockage resolution. The study did not cover the postural risk of firewood processing sites as a whole. The study provided useful information for selecting firewood processing machinery and for improving firewood machinery design, as part of a more articulate strategy aimed at enhancing the safety of firewood processing work sites. Practitioner Summary: The postural risk associated with mechanised firewood processing (eg cutting and splitting) depends on the type of equipment. Postural risk is highest (OWAS Action Category 2) with new in-line machines, designed for operation by a single worker. Fully automatic machines present minimum postural risk, except during blockage resolution.

  20. US EPA's Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    BackgroundThe ERASC provides technical information and addresses scientific questions of concern or interest on topics relevant to ecological risk assessment at hazardous waste sites for EPA's Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response (OSWER) personnel and the Office of Resource Conservation and Recovery (ORCR) staff. Requests are channeled to ERASC through the Ecological Risk Assessment Forum (ERAF). To assess emerging and complex scientific issues that require expert judgment, the ERASC relies on the expertise of scientists and engineers located throughout EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) labs and centers.ResponseERASC develops responses that reflect the state of the science for ecological risk assessment and also provides a communication point for the distribution of the responses to other interested parties. For further information, contact Ecology_ERASC@epa.gov or call 513-569-7940.

  1. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...... as potential sensitizers. Methods: This article reviews clinical data for three fragrance ingredients cinnamic aldehyde, citral, and isoeugenol to assess the utility of the QRA approach for fragrance ingredients. Results: This assessment suggests that had the QRA approach been available at the time standards...

  2. Seismic risk assessment of a BWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wells, J.E.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Chen, J.C.; Lappa, D.A.; Chuang, T.Y.; Murray, R.C.; Johnson, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    The simplified seismic risk methodology developed in the USNRC Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) was demonstrated by its application to the Zion nuclear power plant (PWR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was developed to reduce the costs associated with a seismic risk analysis while providing adequate results. A detailed model of Zion, including systems analysis models (initiating events, event trees, and fault trees), SSI and structure models, and piping models, was developed and used in assessing the seismic risk of the Zion nuclear power plant (FSAR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was applied to the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant, a BWR; to further demonstrate its applicability, and if possible, to provide a basis for comparing the seismic risk from PWRs and BWRs. (orig./HP)

  3. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  4. Site remediation guided by risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBean, E.A.; Gowing, A.; Pieczonka, G.

    2002-01-01

    'Full text:' Risk assessment (RA) provides an effective tool for identifying hazards with respect to human health and ecological receptors, hazards that arise from contaminants in the environment. Risk assessment relies upon: hazard identification/problem formulation; toxicity assessment; exposure assessment; and risk characterization. Hence, risk assessment provides an effective guide for site remediation through the identification of the associated risks arising from pre- and potential post-remediation activities. As a demonstration of this decision-making process, a site-specific risk assessment (SSRA) was performed on a chemical producing facility. Historical waste practices during the production of DDT compounds resulted in impacted site soils and sediment and soils of the creek passing through the facility. The purpose of the SSRA was to derive site-specific cleanup values for the impacted on-site soils, creek sediments, and embankment soils, incorporating human and ecological receptors associated with the environmental media. The human exposure pathways considered were dermal contact, incidental ingestion, and inhalation of the various soils. The potential human receptors were industrial workers, construction workers, trespassers, and off-site residents. Ingestion of fish from the creek by residents was also evaluated in the human health risk assessment (HHRA). Food web analyses were used to evaluate the impact of exposure to chemical compounds in aquatic sediments and related soils by ecological receptors such as the great blue heron, raccoon, and mink. The SSRA involved modelling the daily chemical intake by receptors and the transfer of chemicals to identified secondary media (e.g., ambient air or animal tissues) that are also potential exposure media. These models, while using the site-specific chemical data in the source media, possess uncertainties associated with default parameters that are only approximations and not site-specific (e.g., soil

  5. Memories of paternal relations are associated with coping and defense mechanisms in breast cancer patients: an observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiara Renzi

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Breast cancer diagnosis and treatment represent stressful events that demand emotional adjustment, thus recruiting coping strategies and defense mechanisms. As parental relations were shown to influence emotion regulation patterns and adaptive processes in adulthood, the present study investigated whether they are specifically associated to coping and defense mechanisms in patients with breast cancer. Methods One hundred and ten women hospitalized for breast cancer surgery were administered questionnaires assessing coping with cancer, defense mechanisms, and memories of parental bonding in childhood. Results High levels of paternal overprotection were associated with less mature defenses, withdrawal and fantasy and less adaptive coping mechanisms, such as hopelessness/helplessness. Low levels of paternal care were associated with a greater use of repression. No association was found between maternal care, overprotection, coping and defense mechanisms. Immature defenses correlated positively with less adaptive coping styles, while mature defenses were positively associated to a fighting spirit and to fatalism, and inversely related to less adaptive coping styles. Conclusions These data suggest that paternal relations in childhood are associated with emotional, cognitive, and behavioral regulation in adjusting to cancer immediately after surgery. Early experiences of bonding may constitute a relevant index for adaptation to cancer, indicating which patients are at risk and should be considered for psychological interventions.

  6. Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

  7. Paternal Postnatal and Subsequent Mental Health Symptoms and Child Socio-Emotional and Behavioural Problems at School Entry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Hannah R.; Eryigit-Madzwamuse, Suna; Barnes, Jacqueline

    2013-01-01

    Research on the effect of paternal mental health problems, particularly on young children, is based predominantly on clinical levels of depression. Furthermore, potential mediators such as marital discord have often been overlooked. This longitudinal community study assessed the association between paternal mental health symptoms in a community…

  8. Risks in hospitals. Assessment and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradea Ioana-Alexandra

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In a complex world, characterized by a multitude of risks, managers need to manage the risks they encounter, in an efficient way and in the shortest time possible. In the current economic crisis, the concept of hospital risk management, as the process in which is identified, analyzed, reduced, or avoided a risk that may affect the hospital, gained great importance. The Romanian health system, distinguished by: lack of transparency, poor funding, the loss of the valuable medical staff, lack of hospitals in villages and small towns, inability to engage patients due to the old and poor equipment, lack of research and problems in information privacy and cyber-security, requires an appropriate management, enabling risk managers to take decisions in order to avoid the occurrence of risks. Important for the functioning of every hospital is the perception of patients and their degree of satisfaction, regarding the quality of services, which depend largely on the quality of human resources. But what are the human resources weaknesses and risks from the patient point of view? What are the risk indicators which must be monitored to avoid risks? And also, which is the most useful method for measurement and assessment of risk?

  9. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  10. OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

  11. A methodology for reviewing probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Derby, S.L.

    1983-01-01

    The starting point for peer review of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a clear understanding of how the risk estimate was prepared and of what contributions dominate the calculation. The problem facing the reviewers is how to cut through the complex details of a PRA to gain this understanding. This paper presents a structured, analytical procedure that solves this problem. The effectiveness of this solution is demonstrated by an application on the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study. The procedure found the three dominant initiating events and provided a simplified reconstruction of the calculation of the risk estimate. Significant assessments of uncertainty were also identified. If peer review disputes the accuracy of these judgments, then the revised risk estimate could significantly increase

  12. Estimation, assessment and management of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinoehl-Kompa, S.

    2005-01-01

    After the introductory lectures the closed conference divided into sessions on the estimation, assessment and management of risks. This review article summarises some of the central issues which were addressed in the discussions held during the closed conference and which may be of significance for the future work of the ''Radiation Risk'' Committee within the Radiation Protection Commission. Fundamental difficulties still persist in the implementation of risk quantities within the concepts of radiation protection (lectures by Breckow and Kiefer). Some of these difficulties have to do with the definition of dose quantities, in particular with the one most central to radiation protection, the effective dose. In the field of sparsely ionizing radiation attention was focused on two main topics, namely the risk of acquiring thyroid cancer in association with the Chernobyl desaster and analyses of new mortality data on the survivors of the nuclear bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In the area of lung cancer risk from radon exposure, attention was focused on indoor exposure and the cohort study on bismuth miners. The body of knowledge that has accumulated on the risk of acquiring cancer through UV radiation takes a special position within the wider field of risks associated with nonionizing radiation, since much has already been achieved towards identifying the action mechanisms involved here. Since skin cancer shows the highest increments in incidence of all types of cancer, estimating the risk of acquiring skin cancer through UV radiation will be an important issue in future. One of the tasks of risk management is to translate the results of risk assessment into action. One task of particular importance in this regard is ''risk communication'', the problems surrounding which were illuminated from different perspectives in various contributions

  13. Risk Assessment Approaches for Carcinogenic Food Contaminants

    OpenAIRE

    Gillespie, Zoe; Pulido, Olga; Vavasour, Elizabeth

    2011-01-01

    Health Canada has identified the need for a standardized department-wide approach for the risk assessment of carcinogens in foods (e.g., pesticides, food chemical contaminants, veterinary therapeutics). A standardized approach would better facilitate and inform risk management strategies for the control of human exposure to food sources of carcinogens. Within the post- market regulatory context, directly DNA-reactive carcinogens are of most concern because any exposure is theoretically assume...

  14. Superfund risk assessment in soil contamination studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoddinott, K.B.

    1992-01-01

    This symposium was held in New Orleans, Louisiana on January 30-31, 1991. The purpose of the meeting was to provide a forum for exchange of information on risk assessment associated with soil contamination. The conference included presentations in the following categories: site characterization; fate and transport; toxicity, exposures, and receptors; risk characterization/case studies; and establishing cleanup levels. Individual papers have been cataloged separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  15. A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2009-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

  16. The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Burda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.

  17. [Patient safety in antibiotics administration: Risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maqueda Palau, M; Pérez Juan, E

    To determine the level of risk in the preparation and administration of antibiotics frequently used in the Intensive Care Unit using a risk matrix. A study was conducted using situation analysis and literature review of databases, protocols and good practice guidelines on intravenous therapy, drugs, and their administration routes. The most used antibiotics in the ICU registered in the ENVIN-HELICS program from 1 April to 30 June 2015 were selected. In this period, 257 patients received antimicrobial treatment and 26 antibiotics were evaluated. Variables studied: A risk assessment of each antibiotic using the scale Risk Assessment Tool, of the National Patient Safety Agency, as well as pH, osmolarity, type of catheter recommended for administration, and compatibility and incompatibility with other antibiotics studied. Almost two-thirds (65.3%) of antibiotics had more than 3 risk factors (represented by a yellow stripe), with the remaining 34.7% of antibiotics having between 0 and 2 risk factors (represented by a green stripe). There were no antibiotics with 6 or more risk factors (represented by a red stripe). Most drugs needed reconstitution, additional dilution, and the use of part of the vial to administer the prescribed dose. More than half of the antibiotics studied had a moderate risk level; thus measures should be adopted in order to reduce it. The risk matrix is a useful tool for the assessment and detection of weaknesses associated with the preparation and administration of intravenous antibiotics. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  18. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamasi, Galileo, E-mail: g.tamasi@enac.rupa.i [Ente Nazionale per l' Aviazione Civile-Direzione Progetti, Studi e Ricerche, Via di Villa Ricotti, 42, 00161 Roma (Italy); Demichela, Micaela, E-mail: micaela.demichela@polito.i [SAfeR-Centro Studi su Sicurezza, Affidabilita e Rischi, Dipartimento di Scienza dei Materiali e Ingegneria Chimica, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi, 24, 10129 Torino (Italy)

    2011-08-15

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  19. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamasi, Galileo; Demichela, Micaela

    2011-01-01

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  20. Korean risk assessment model for breast cancer risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K

    2013-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (pKorean women, especially urban women.

  1. Assessment of health risks of policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

  2. Assessment of health risks of policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  3. Risks assessment and comparison: Interest and feasibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coulon, Rene

    1989-01-01

    Comparative risk assessment and risk management have become a real discipline, requiring a scientific approach. This is due to the increasing need to take account of risks in the decision processes together with other economic, social or political considerations. Although the notion of risk is generally associated with emergency situations, it seems necessary to pay more attention to those situations which are considered as normal situations but could be responsible for a significant part of the observed health effects. In this context, a research programme entitled Programme Grand Delta has been developed at a regional level: its aim is to provide a clear and simple representation of the risks to which the population living in this area is exposed. (author)

  4. Caries risk assessment in young adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersson, Gunnel Hänsel; Twetman, Svante

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To validate baseline caries risk classifications according to the Cariogram model with the actual caries development over a 3-year period in a group of young adults living in Sweden. METHODS: The study group consisted of 1,295 19-year-old patients that completed a comprehensive clinical...... baseline examination, including radiographs and salivary tests. An individual caries risk profile was computed and the patient was placed in one of five risk categories. After 3 years, 982 patients (75.8%) were re-examined and caries increment for each patient was calculated. The outcome was expressed...... as sensitivity, specificity and predictive values and compared with a risk assessment scheme used in Public Dental Service. RESULTS: The drop-outs displayed more risk factors and a significantly higher caries burden at baseline compared with those that remained in the project (p 

  5. Environmental health risk assessment: Energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krewski, D.; Somers, E.; Winthrop, S.O.

    1984-01-01

    Most industrialized nations have come to rely on a variety of systems for energy production, both of a conventional and non-conventional nature. In the paper, the spectrum of energy systems currently in use in Canada is outlined along with their potential health risks. Several examples of environmental health studies involving both outdoor and indoor air pollution related to energy production in Canada are reported. The limitations of current technologies for assessing health risks are discussed and possible approaches to managing energy related health risks are indicated. (author)

  6. Risk assessment techniques for industrial installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Croitoru, C.; Dumitrescu, M.; Preda, I.; Stefanescu, I.; Titescu, G.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents a risk analysis which concerns the following stages: identification of the initiation events, evaluation of the occurrence frequency of different accident sequences, assessment of human, economical, and environmental consequences, risk assessment and management. The study of the accident sequences subsequent to an initiation event was achieved by the event tree method. Also, there were developed methods based on mathematical models of installations which take into account reliability data, data concerning the exploitation history, and data referring to the human factor effects in the installation operation. These methods were used for the determination of occurrence frequencies of hydrogen sulfide emission accidents in the heavy water production installations

  7. Documentation design for probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parkinson, W.J.; von Herrmann, J.L.

    1985-01-01

    This paper describes a framework for documentation design of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and is based on the EPRI document NP-3470 ''Documentation Design for Probabilistic Risk Assessment''. The goals for PRA documentation are stated. Four audiences are identified which PRA documentation must satisfy, and the documentation consistent with the needs of the various audiences are discussed, i.e., the Summary Report, the Executive Summary, the Main Report, and Appendices. The authors recommend the documentation specifications discussed herein as guides rather than rigid definitions

  8. Public Service Motivation and Paternalism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm Pedersen, Lene; Qvistgaard, Lars

    holds a potential to improve public service provision (Belle, 2013, Andersen et al., 2014), it also has dark sides (Van Loon et al., 2015, forthcoming). The aim of this paper is to analyze and discuss how one type of public service motivated individuals (paternalistic knights) and constitute a problem...... of democratic accountability. The setting of this discussion is unusual for the PSM literature, and takes PSM into the analysis and discussion of motivation and paternalism in trade unions. This setting is relevant and interesting as the election of representatives is based on elections, and hence trade unions...... variables are two dimensions of the PSM construct; namely self-sacrifice and commitment to the public interest, whereas the central independent variable is paternalistic orientation. All three variables are measured with survey constructs in a cross sectional survey design. The survey is made among...

  9. New method for assessing risks of email

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  10. Mixtures and their risk assessment in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumtaz, Moiz M; Hansen, Hugh; Pohl, Hana R

    2011-01-01

    For communities generally and for persons living in the vicinity of waste sites specifically, potential exposures to chemical mixtures are genuine concerns. Such concerns often arise from perceptions of a site's higher than anticipated toxicity due to synergistic interactions among chemicals. This chapter outlines some historical approaches to mixtures risk assessment. It also outlines ATSDR's current approach to toxicity risk assessment. The ATSDR's joint toxicity assessment guidance for chemical mixtures addresses interactions among components of chemical mixtures. The guidance recommends a series of steps that include simple calculations for a systematic analysis of data leading to conclusions regarding any hazards chemical mixtures might pose. These conclusions can, in turn, lead to recommendations such as targeted research to fill data gaps, development of new methods using current science, and health education to raise awareness of residents and health care providers. The chapter also provides examples of future trends in chemical mixtures assessment.

  11. Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

    2016-12-01

    Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a

  12. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research

  13. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  14. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  15. Heuristics structure and pervade formal risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGillivray, Brian H

    2014-04-01

    Lay perceptions of risk appear rooted more in heuristics than in reason. A major concern of the risk regulation literature is that such "error-strewn" perceptions may be replicated in policy, as governments respond to the (mis)fears of the citizenry. This has led many to advocate a relatively technocratic approach to regulating risk, characterized by high reliance on formal risk and cost-benefit analysis. However, through two studies of chemicals regulation, we show that the formal assessment of risk is pervaded by its own set of heuristics. These include rules to categorize potential threats, define what constitutes valid data, guide causal inference, and to select and apply formal models. Some of these heuristics lay claim to theoretical or empirical justifications, others are more back-of-the-envelope calculations, while still more purport not to reflect some truth but simply to constrain discretion or perform a desk-clearing function. These heuristics can be understood as a way of authenticating or formalizing risk assessment as a scientific practice, representing a series of rules for bounding problems, collecting data, and interpreting evidence (a methodology). Heuristics are indispensable elements of induction. And so they are not problematic per se, but they can become so when treated as laws rather than as contingent and provisional rules. Pitfalls include the potential for systematic error, masking uncertainties, strategic manipulation, and entrenchment. Our central claim is that by studying the rules of risk assessment qua rules, we develop a novel representation of the methods, conventions, and biases of the prior art. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  17. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  18. Risk assessment and management logistics chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Vikulov

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the context of economic globalization and increasing complexity of economic relations enterprises need methods and techniques to improve and sustain their position on the global market. Integration processes offer business new opportunities, but at the same time present new challenges for the management, including the key objectives of the risk management. Method: On the basis of analysis tools known from the pertinent literature (Supply Chain Management and Supply Chain Risk Management methods, methods of probability theory, methods of risk management, methods of statistics the authors of this paper proposed their own risk assessment method and the method of management of logistics chains. The proposed tool is a specific hybrid of solutions known from the literature. Results: The presented method has been successfully used within the frames of economic-mathematical model of industrial enterprises. Indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier are considered in this paper. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers. Conclusion: Every organization, which starting the process of integration with supplier and customers, needs to use tools, methodologies and techniques for identification of "weak links" in the supply chain. The proposed method allows to fix risk origin places in various links of the supply chain and to identify "weak links" of a logistic chain that may occur in the future. The method is a useful tool for managing not only risks and risk situations, but also to improve the efficiency of current assets management by providing the ability to optimize the level of risk in the current assets management of the industrial enterprise.

  19. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Dawson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

  1. Risk assessment for SAGD well blowouts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worth, D.; Alhanati, F.; Lastiwka, M. [C-FER Technologies, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Crepin, S. [Petrocedeno, Caracas (Venezuela)

    2008-10-15

    This paper discussed a steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) pilot project currently being conducted in Venezuela's Orinoco Belt. A risk assessment was conducted as part of the pilot program in order to evaluate the use of single barrier completions in conjunction with a blowout response plan. The study considered 3 options: (1) an isolated double barrier completion with a downhole safety valve (DHSV) in the production tubing string and a packer in the production casing annulus; (2) a partially isolated completion with no DHSV and a packer in the production casing annulus; and (3) an open single barrier completion with no additional downhole barriers. A reservoir model was used to assess the blowout flowing potential of SAGD well pairs. The probability of a blowout was estimated using fault tree analysis techniques. Risk was determined for various blowout scenarios, including blowouts during normal and workover operations, as well as blowouts through various flow paths. Total risk for each completion scenario was also determined at 3 different time periods within the production life of the well pair. The possible consequences of a blowout were assessed using quantitative consequence models. Results of the study showed that environmental and economic risks were much higher for the open completion technique. Higher risks were also associated with the earlier life of the completion strings. 20 refs., 3 tabs., 19 figs.

  2. Preliminary risk assessments of the small HTGR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Everline, C.J.; Bellis, E.A.

    1985-05-01

    Preliminary investment and safety risk assessments were performed for a preconceptual design of a four-module 250-MW(t) side-by-side steel-vessel pebble bed HTGR plant. Broad event spectra were analyzed involving component damage resulting in unscheduled plant outages and fission product releases resulting in offsite doses. The preliminary assessment indicates at this stage of the design that two categories of events govern the investment risk envelope: primary coolant leaks which release some circulating and plate-out activity that contaminates the confinement and turbogenerator damage which involves extensive turbine blade failure. Primary coolant leaks are important contributors because associated cleanup and decontamination requirements result in longer outages that arise from other events with comparable frequencies. Turbogenerator damage is the salient low-frequency investment risk accident due to the relatively long outages being experienced in the industry. Thermal transients are unimportant investment risk contributors because pressurized core heatups cause little damage, and depressurized core heatups occur at negligible frequencies relative to the forced outage goal. These preliminary results demonstrate investment and safety risk goal compliance at this stage in the design process. Studies are continuing in order to provide valuable insights into risk-significant events to assure a balanced approach to meeting user and regulatory requirements

  3. Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

    2007-08-01

    According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

  4. Dermal absorption and toxicological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buist, H.

    2016-01-01

    Absorption of toxic substances via the skin is an important phenomenon in the assessment of the risk of exposure to these substances. People are exposed to a variety of substances and products via the skin, either directly or indirectly, while at work, at home or in public space. Pesticides,

  5. An approach to security risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engells, Thomas E

    2012-01-01

    Use of a brief survey instrument described in this article can be a useful means of obtaining actionable information in regards to risk assessment and crime prevention, the author points out. The survey yields data that assists in the prioritization of effort that can enhance the impact of a limited pool of qualified specialists.

  6. Next generation of microbiological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Besten, den Heidy M.W.; Amézquita, Alejandro; Bover-Cid, Sara; Dagnas, Stéphane; Ellouze, Mariem; Guillou, Sandrine; Nychas, George; O'Mahony, Cian; Pérez-Rodriguez, Fernando; Membré, Jeanne Marie

    2017-01-01

    In food safety and public health risk evaluations, microbiological exposure assessment plays a central role as it provides an estimation of both the likelihood and the level of the microbial hazard in a specified consumer portion of food and takes microbial behaviour into account. While until now

  7. Ecological Risk Assessment in Water Resource Management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The US EPA published guidelines for the application of ecological risk assessment (ERA) in the USA in 1998 (US EPA 1998). The process diagram derived by Murray and Claassen (1999) in an evaluation of the US EPA framework is discussed in the context of the South African National Water Act. The evaluation discusses ...

  8. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  9. Overview of the probabilistic risk assessment approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, J.W.

    1985-01-01

    The techniques of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are applicable to Department of Energy facilities. The background and techniques of PRA are given with special attention to seismic, wind and flooding external events. A specific application to seismic events is provided to demonstrate the method. However, the PRA framework is applicable also to wind and external flooding. 3 references, 8 figures, 1 table

  10. Risk assessment of integrated electronic health records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjornsson, Bjarni Thor; Sigurdardottir, Gudlaug; Stefansson, Stefan Orri

    2010-01-01

    The paper describes the security concerns related to Electronic Health Records (EHR) both in registration of data and integration of systems. A description of the current state of EHR systems in Iceland is provided, along with the Ministry of Health's future vision and plans. New legislation provides the opportunity for increased integration of EHRs and further collaboration between institutions. Integration of systems, along with greater availability and access to EHR data, requires increased security awareness since additional risks are introduced. The paper describes the core principles of information security as it applies to EHR systems and data. The concepts of confidentiality, integrity, availability, accountability and traceability are introduced and described. The paper discusses the legal requirements and importance of performing risk assessment for EHR data. Risk assessment methodology according to the ISO/IEC 27001 information security standard is described with examples on how it is applied to EHR systems.

  11. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  12. Uncertainties in risk assessment and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Starzec, Peter; Purucker, Tom; Stewart, Robert

    2008-02-01

    The general concept for risk assessment in accordance with the Swedish model for contaminated soil implies that the toxicological reference value for a given receptor is first back-calculated to a corresponding concentration of a compound in soil and (if applicable) then modified with respect to e.g. background levels, acute toxicity, and factor of safety. This result in a guideline value that is subsequently compared to the observed concentration levels. Many sources of uncertainty exist when assessing whether the risk for a receptor is significant or not. In this study, the uncertainty aspects have been addressed from three standpoints: 1. Uncertainty in the comparison between the level of contamination (source) and a given risk criterion (e.g. a guideline value) and possible implications on subsequent decisions. This type of uncertainty is considered to be most important in situations where a contaminant is expected to be spatially heterogeneous without any tendency to form isolated clusters (hotspots) that can be easily delineated, i.e. where mean values are appropriate to compare to the risk criterion. 2. Uncertainty in spatial distribution of a contaminant. Spatial uncertainty should be accounted for when hotspots are to be delineated and the volume of soil contaminated with levels above a stated decision criterion has to be assessed (quantified). 3. Uncertainty in an ecological exposure model with regard to the moving pattern of a receptor in relation to spatial distribution of contaminant in question. The study points out that the choice of methodology to characterize the relation between contaminant concentration and a pre-defined risk criterion is governed by a conceptual perception of the contaminant's spatial distribution and also depends on the structure of collected data (observations). How uncertainty in transition from contaminant concentration into risk criterion can be quantified was demonstrated by applying hypothesis tests and the concept of

  13. Beyond Boys' Bad Behavior: Paternal Incarceration and Cognitive Development in Middle Childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haskins, Anna R

    2016-12-07

    A growing number of American school-aged children have incarcerated or formally incarcerated parents necessitating a more comprehensive understanding of the intergenerational effects of mass imprisonment. Using the Fragile Families Study, I assess whether having an incarcerated father impacts children's cognitive skill development into middle childhood. While previous studies have primarily found effects for boys' behavior problems, matching models and sensitivity analyses demonstrate that experiencing paternal incarceration by age 9 is associated with lower cognitive skills for both boys and girls and these negative effects hold net of a pre-paternal incarceration measure of child cognitive ability. Moreover, I estimate that paternal incarceration explains between 2 and 15 percent of the Black-White achievement gap at age 9. These findings represent new outcomes of importance and suggest that paternal incarceration may play an even larger role in the production of intergenerational inequalities for American children than previously documented.

  14. Beyond Boys’ Bad Behavior: Paternal Incarceration and Cognitive Development in Middle Childhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haskins, Anna R.

    2017-01-01

    A growing number of American school-aged children have incarcerated or formally incarcerated parents necessitating a more comprehensive understanding of the intergenerational effects of mass imprisonment. Using the Fragile Families Study, I assess whether having an incarcerated father impacts children’s cognitive skill development into middle childhood. While previous studies have primarily found effects for boys’ behavior problems, matching models and sensitivity analyses demonstrate that experiencing paternal incarceration by age 9 is associated with lower cognitive skills for both boys and girls and these negative effects hold net of a pre-paternal incarceration measure of child cognitive ability. Moreover, I estimate that paternal incarceration explains between 2 and 15 percent of the Black-White achievement gap at age 9. These findings represent new outcomes of importance and suggest that paternal incarceration may play an even larger role in the production of intergenerational inequalities for American children than previously documented. PMID:28579646

  15. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janeck J. Scott‐Fordsmand

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA for nanomaterials (NMs is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i materials, (ii release, fate and exposure, (iii hazard and (iv risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES and relevant exposure scenarios (RES and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC, but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC, either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

  16. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Semenzin, Elena; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Hristozov, Danail; Marcomini, Antonio; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Landsiedel, Robert; Tran, Lang; Oomen, Agnes G; Bos, Peter M J; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin

    2017-10-19

    An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for nanomaterials (NMs) is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i) materials, (ii) release, fate and exposure, (iii) hazard and (iv) risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES) and relevant exposure scenarios (RES) and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s) NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC), but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC), either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC) or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

  17. Cancer risk assessments and environmental regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scroggin, D.G.

    1990-01-01

    Governmental regulation of toxic substances, such as carcinogens and radiation, prompts both legal and scientific controversies. Industry, environmental activist groups, government regulators, and the general public are all concerned with the question of how environmental risk to public health is to be measured and what level of risk warrants government action under the environmental laws. Several recent events shed light on the fundamental scientific and legal problems inherent in such regulation, and these events may affect the direction of future developments. These events include implementation of generic Risk Assessment Guidelines by the US EPA, litigation challenging EPA's regulation of carcinogenic substances, new scientific understanding of the relative risks from human exposure to natural and man-made sources, and the continuing growth of toxic tort litigation in which victims of cancer seek large damages from industrial emitters of pollution

  18. New approaches in human health risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abass, Khaled; Carlsen, Anders; Rautio, Arja

    2016-01-01

    Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009-2014; www.arcrisk.eu).

  19. New approaches in human health risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khaled Abass

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009–2014; www.arcrisk.eu.

  20. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  1. The effect of paternal age on offspring intelligence and personality when controlling for paternal trait level

    OpenAIRE

    Arslan, Ruben C.; Penke, Lars; Johnson, Wendy; Iacono, William G.; McGue, Matt

    2013-01-01

    Paternal age at conception has been found to predict the number of new genetic mutations. We examined the effect of father’s age at birth on offspring intelligence, head circumference and personality traits. Using the Minnesota Twin Family Study sample we tested paternal age effects while controlling for parents’ trait levels measured with the same precision as offspring’s. From evolutionary genetic considerations we predicted a negative effect of paternal age on offspring intelligence, but n...

  2. Paternal B Vitamin Intake Is a Determinant of Growth, Hepatic Lipid Metabolism and Intestinal Tumor Volume in Female Apc1638N Mouse Offspring.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia A Sabet

    Full Text Available The importance of maternal nutrition to offspring health and risk of disease is well established. Emerging evidence suggests paternal diet may affect offspring health as well.In the current study we sought to determine whether modulating pre-conception paternal B vitamin intake alters intestinal tumor formation in offspring. Additionally, we sought to identify potential mechanisms for the observed weight differential among offspring by profiling hepatic gene expression and lipid content.Male Apc1638N mice (prone to intestinal tumor formation were fed diets containing replete (control, CTRL, mildly deficient (DEF, or supplemental (SUPP quantities of vitamins B2, B6, B12, and folate for 8 weeks before mating with control-fed wild type females. Wild type offspring were euthanized at weaning and hepatic gene expression profiled. Apc1638N offspring were fed a replete diet and euthanized at 28 weeks of age to assess tumor burden.No differences in intestinal tumor incidence or burden were found between male Apc1638N offspring of different paternal diet groups. Although in female Apc1638N offspring there were no differences in tumor incidence or multiplicity, a stepwise increase in tumor volume with increasing paternal B vitamin intake was observed. Interestingly, female offspring of SUPP and DEF fathers had a significantly lower body weight than those of CTRL fed fathers. Moreover, hepatic trigylcerides and cholesterol were elevated 3-fold in adult female offspring of SUPP fathers. Weanling offspring of the same fathers displayed altered expression of several key lipid-metabolism genes. Hundreds of differentially methylated regions were identified in the paternal sperm in response to DEF and SUPP diets. Aside from a few genes including Igf2, there was a striking lack of overlap between these genes differentially methylated in sperm and differentially expressed in offspring.In this animal model, modulation of paternal B vitamin intake prior to mating

  3. Risk assessment in man and mouse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balci, Fuat; Freestone, David; Gallistel, Charles R

    2009-02-17

    Human and mouse subjects tried to anticipate at which of 2 locations a reward would appear. On a randomly scheduled fraction of the trials, it appeared with a short latency at one location; on the complementary fraction, it appeared after a longer latency at the other location. Subjects of both species accurately assessed the exogenous uncertainty (the probability of a short versus a long trial) and the endogenous uncertainty (from the scalar variability in their estimates of an elapsed duration) to compute the optimal target latency for a switch from the short- to the long-latency location. The optimal latency was arrived at so rapidly that there was no reliably discernible improvement over trials. Under these nonverbal conditions, humans and mice accurately assess risks and behave nearly optimally. That this capacity is well-developed in the mouse opens up the possibility of a genetic approach to the neurobiological mechanisms underlying risk assessment.

  4. Quantitative risk assessment of digitalized safety systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Sung Min; Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hym Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Seung Jun [UNIST, Ulasn (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    A report published by the U.S. National Research Council indicates that appropriate methods for assessing reliability are key to establishing the acceptability of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems in safety-critical plants such as NPPs. Since the release of this issue, the methodology for the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of digital I and C systems has been studied. However, there is still no widely accepted method. Kang and Sung found three critical factors for safety assessment of digital systems: detection coverage of fault-tolerant techniques, software reliability quantification, and network communication risk. In reality the various factors composing digitalized I and C systems are not independent of each other but rather closely connected. Thus, from a macro point of view, a method that can integrate risk factors with different characteristics needs to be considered together with the micro approaches to address the challenges facing each factor.

  5. Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

    2017-04-01

    The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

  6. Paternal inheritance of classic X-linked bilateral periventricular nodular heterotopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasper, Burkhard S; Kurzbuch, Katrin; Chang, Bernard S; Pauli, Elisabeth; Hamer, Hajo M; Winkler, Jürgen; Hehr, Ute

    2013-06-01

    Periventricular nodular heterotopia (PNH) is a developmental disorder of the central nervous system, characterized by heterotopic nodules of gray matter resulting from disturbed neuronal migration. The most common form of bilateral PNH is X-linked dominant inherited, caused by mutations in the Filamin A gene (FLNA) and associated with a wide variety of other clinical findings including congenital heart disease. The typical patient with FLNA-associated PNH is female and presents with difficult to treat seizures. In contrast, hemizygous FLNA loss of function mutations in males are reported to be perinatally lethal. In X-linked dominant traits like FLNA-associated PNH the causal mutation is commonly inherited from the mother. Here, we present an exceptional family with paternal transmission of classic bilateral FLNA-associated PNH from a mildly affected father with somatic and germline mosaicism for a c.5686G>A FLNA splice mutation to both daughters with strikingly variable clinical manifestation and PNH extent in cerebral MR imaging. Our observations emphasize the importance to consider in genetic counseling and risk assessment the rare genetic constellation of paternal transmission for families with X-linked dominant inherited FLNA-associated PNH. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Paternalism, Obesity, and Tolerable Levels of Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merry, Michael S.

    2012-01-01

    Obesity describes an abnormally high fat accumulation that impairs health. It is crudely measured by a body mass index (BMI) of greater than 30 kg/sq meters. Obesity now ranks among the highest of concerns by the World Health Organization (WHO) and not only in countries of affluence; the figures of obesity worldwide have doubled since 1980 and the…

  8. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

    1999-12-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

  9. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

    1999-01-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

  10. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  11. An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2015-04-01

    The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

  12. ISFG: Recommendations on biostatistics in paternity testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjertson, David W; Brenner, Charles H; Baur, Max P

    2007-01-01

    The Paternity Testing Commission (PTC) of the International Society for Forensic Genetics has taken up the task of establishing the biostatistical recommendations in accordance with the ISO 17025 standards and a previous set of ISFG recommendations specific to the genetic investigations...... in paternity cases. In the initial set, the PTC recommended that biostatistical evaluations of paternity are based on a likelihood ratio principle - yielding the paternity index, PI. Here, we have made five supplementary biostatistical recommendations. The first recommendation clarifies and defines basic...... concepts of genetic hypotheses and calculation concerns needed to produce valid PIs. The second and third recommendations address issues associated with population genetics (allele probabilities, Y-chromosome markers, mtDNA, and population substructuring) and special circumstances (deficiency...

  13. Advanced paternal age and stillbirth rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urhøj, Stine Kjær; Andersen, Per Kragh; Mortensen, Laust Hvas

    2017-01-01

    Advanced paternal age has been associated with a variety of rare conditions and diseases of great public health impact. An increased number of de novo point mutations in sperm with increasing age have been suggested as a mechanism, which would likely also affect fetal viability. We examined...... the association between paternal age and stillbirth rate in a large nationwide cohort. We identified all pregnancies in Denmark from 1994 to 2010 carried to a gestational age of at least 22 completed weeks (n = 944,031) as registered in national registers and linked to individual register data about the parents....... The hazard ratio of stillbirth according to paternal age was estimated, adjusted for maternal age in 1-year categories, year of outcome, and additionally parental educational levels. The relative rate of stillbirth (n = 4946) according to paternal age was found to be J-shaped with the highest hazard ratio...

  14. Microbiological risk assessment and public health

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roger Skinner

    1992-01-01

    Despite the advances made in risk assessment i the past twenty years, in areas as diverse as toxicology and offshore engineering, the risk assessment approach has made little impact on those addressing the microbiological aspects of public health. In this paper the advances which have been made are discussed and the difficulties preventing the wider application of microbiological risk assessment (MRA) to public health are considered. The term microbiological risk is used here to mean the probability of contracting a disease caused by a microorganism. I intend to demonstrate that the dynamic nature of microorganisms and the unique nature of the relationship between a pathogen (a microorganism which causes disease) and its host create special challenges for those involved in MRA. Although these problems are difficult they are not intractable. Indeed in some cases partial solutions have already been found and applied. It is hoped that this paper will help stimulate further thought and consideration in a variety of disciplines so that these challenges can be met, thereby allowing MRA to fulfil its potential

  15. Microbiological risk assessment and public health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skinner, Roger

    1992-07-01

    Despite the advances made in risk assessment i the past twenty years, in areas as diverse as toxicology and offshore engineering, the risk assessment approach has made little impact on those addressing the microbiological aspects of public health. In this paper the advances which have been made are discussed and the difficulties preventing the wider application of microbiological risk assessment (MRA) to public health are considered. The term microbiological risk is used here to mean the probability of contracting a disease caused by a microorganism. I intend to demonstrate that the dynamic nature of microorganisms and the unique nature of the relationship between a pathogen (a microorganism which causes disease) and its host create special challenges for those involved in MRA. Although these problems are difficult they are not intractable. Indeed in some cases partial solutions have already been found and applied. It is hoped that this paper will help stimulate further thought and consideration in a variety of disciplines so that these challenges can be met, thereby allowing MRA to fulfil its potential.

  16. A microbial identification framework for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernatchez, Stéphane; Anoop, Valar; Saikali, Zeina; Breton, Marie

    2018-06-01

    Micro-organisms are increasingly used in a variety of products for commercial uses, including cleaning products. Such microbial-based cleaning products (MBCP) are represented as a more environmentally-friendly alternative to chemically based cleaning products. The identity of the micro-organisms formulated into these products is often considered confidential business information and is not revealed or it is only partly revealed (i.e., identification to the genus, not to the species). That paucity of information complicates the evaluation of the risk associated with their use. The accurate taxonomic identification of those micro-organisms is important so that a suitable risk assessment of the products can be conducted. To alleviate difficulties associated with adequate identification of micro-organisms in MBCP and other products containing micro-organisms, a microbial identification framework for risk assessment (MIFRA) has been elaborated. It serves to provide guidance on a polyphasic tiered approach, combining the data obtained from the use of various methods (i.e., polyphasic approach) combined with the sequential selection of the methods (i.e., tiered) to achieve a satisfactory identity of the micro-organism to an acceptable taxonomic level. The MIFRA is suitable in various risk assessment contexts for micro-organisms used in any commercial product. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  17. Quantitative risk assessment of drinking water contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cothern, C.R.; Coniglio, W.A.; Marcus, W.L.

    1986-01-01

    The development of criteria and standards for the regulation of drinking water contaminants involves a variety of processes, one of which is risk estimation. This estimation process, called quantitative risk assessment, involves combining data on the occurrence of the contaminant in drinking water and its toxicity. The human exposure to a contaminant can be estimated from occurrence data. Usually the toxicity or number of health effects per concentration level is estimated from animal bioassay studies using the multistage model. For comparison, other models will be used including the Weibull, probit, logit and quadratic ones. Because exposure and toxicity data are generally incomplete, assumptions need to be made and this generally results in a wide range of certainty in the estimates. This range can be as wide as four to six orders of magnitude in the case of the volatile organic compounds in drinking water and a factor of four to five for estimation of risk due to radionuclides in drinking water. As examples of the differences encountered in risk assessment of drinking water contaminants, discussions are presented on benzene, lead, radon and alachlor. The lifetime population risk estimates for these contaminants are, respectively, in the ranges of: <1 - 3000, <1 - 8000, 2000-40,000 and <1 - 80. 11 references, 1 figure, 1 table

  18. Clinical risk assessment in intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Asefzadeh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin′s Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA. Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN was in respiratory care "Ventilator′s alarm malfunction (no alarm" with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal "not washing the NG-Tube" with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care.

  19. A methodology for reviewing Probabilistic Risk Assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Derby, S.L.

    1983-01-01

    The starting point for peer review of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a clear understanding of how the risk estimate was prepared and of what contributions dominate the calculation. The problem facing the reviewers is how to cut through the complex details of a PRA to gain this understanding. This paper presents a structured, analytical procedure that solves this problem. The effectiveness of this solution is demonstrated by an application on the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study. The procedure found the three dominant initiating events and provided a simplified reconstruction of the calculation of the risk estimate. Significant assessments of uncertainty were also identified. If peer review disputes the accuracy of these judgments, then the revised risk estimate could significantly increase. The value of this procedure comes from having a systematic framework for the PRA review. Practical constraints limit the time and qualified people needed for an adequate review. Having the established framework from this procedure as a starting point, reviewers can focus most of their attention on the accuracy and the completeness of the calculation. Time wasted at the start of the review is reduced by first using this procedure to sort through the technical details of the PRA and to reconstruct the risk estimate from dominant contributions

  20. Recent developments in carcinogenic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krewski, D.; Murdoch, D.; Withey, J.R.

    1989-01-01

    In this paper, recent developments in the quantitative assessment of carcinogenic risks based on toxicological and epidemiological data are reviewed. In particular, model-free approaches to low-dose risk assessment which involve only the assumption of low-dose linearity are considered. Measures of carcinogenic potency which avoid the need to extrapolate to low doses are also described. The allometric bases for converting risk estimates between species are then discussed. Pharmacokinetic models for determining the dose delivered to the target tissue are examined, and the implications of using such models in extrapolating between doses, of exposure, and species are examined. The application of these concepts in chemical and radiation carcinogenesis is illustrated by means of brief case studies of methylene chloride and Rn. Biologically motivated cancer models based on the initiation-promotion-progression theory of carcinogenesis are discussed and compared with the classical multistage model. The estimation of risks with time-dependent exposure patterns is considered, and conditions under which the use of a time-weighted average dose is appropriate are identified. Finally, the estimation of carcinogenic risks posed by exposure to complex mixtures is explored. 92 references

  1. 2009 Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlin, Teri L.; Canga, Michael A.; Boyer, Roger L.; Thigpen, Eric B.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of a Space Shuttle during flight has severe consequences, including loss of a significant national asset; loss of national confidence and pride; and, most importantly, loss of human life. The Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) is used to identify risk contributors and their significance; thus, assisting management in determining how to reduce risk. In 2006, an overview of the SPRA Iteration 2.1 was presented at PSAM 8 [1]. Like all successful PRAs, the SPRA is a living PRA and has undergone revisions since PSAM 8. The latest revision to the SPRA is Iteration 3. 1, and it will not be the last as the Shuttle program progresses and more is learned. This paper discusses the SPRA scope, overall methodology, and results, as well as provides risk insights. The scope, assumptions, uncertainties, and limitations of this assessment provide risk-informed perspective to aid management s decision-making process. In addition, this paper compares the Iteration 3.1 analysis and results to the Iteration 2.1 analysis and results presented at PSAM 8.

  2. Paternal smoking and spontaneous abortion: a population-based retrospective cohort study among non-smoking women aged 20-49 years in rural China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Long; Yang, Ying; Liu, Fangchao; Yang, Aimin; Xu, Qin; Wang, Qiaomei; Shen, Haiping; Zhang, Yiping; Yan, Donghai; Peng, Zuoqi; He, Yuan; Wang, Yuanyuan; Xu, Jihong; Zhao, Jun; Zhang, Hongguang; Zhang, Ya; Dai, Qiaoyun; Ma, Xu

    2018-06-11

    To comprehensively evaluate the association of paternal smoking and spontaneous abortion. We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study among 5 770 691 non-smoking rural Chinese women, along with their husbands, participating in the National Free Pre-Pregnancy Checkups Project, regarding outcome events that occurred in 2010-2016. The main outcome was spontaneous abortion (SA). Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate OR and 95% CI, and restricted cubic spline was used to estimate the non-linear relationship. The multivariable-adjusted OR of exposure to paternal smoking for SA was 1.17 (95% CI 1.16 to 1.19), compared with women without exposure to paternal smoking; and corresponding OR of exposure to preconception paternal smoking for SA was 1.11 (95% CI 1.08 to 1.14), compared with women without exposure to preconception paternal smoking. The ORs of preconception paternal smoking also increased with increases in paternal smoking (p nonlinear 0.05). In addition, periconception paternal smoking cessation was associated with an 18% (15%-22%) lower risk of SA. Paternal smoking was associated with SA. The importance of tobacco control, specifically pertaining to paternal smoking, should be emphasised during preconception and pregnancy counselling. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  3. Implications of advancing paternal age: does it affect offspring school performance?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna C Svensson

    Full Text Available Average paternal age is increasing in many high income countries, but the implications of this demographic shift for child health and welfare are poorly understood. There is equivocal evidence that children of older fathers are at increased risk of neurodevelopmental disorders and reduced IQ. We therefore report here on the relationship between paternal age and a composite indicator of scholastic achievement during adolescence, i.e. compulsory school leaving grades, among recent birth cohorts in Stockholm County where delayed paternity is notably common. We performed a record-linkage study comprising all individuals in Stockholm County who finished 9 years of compulsory school from 2000 through 2007 (n = 155,875. Data on school leaving grades and parental characteristics were retrieved from administrative and health service registers and analyzed using multiple linear regression. Advancing paternal age at birth was not associated with a decrease in school leaving grades in adolescent offspring. After adjustment for year of graduation, maternal age and parental education, country of birth and parental mental health service use, offspring of fathers aged 50 years or older had on average 0.3 (95% CI -3.8, 4.4 points higher grades than those of fathers aged 30-34 years. In conclusion, advancing paternal age is not associated with poorer school performance in adolescence. Adverse effects of delayed paternity on offspring cognitive function, if any, may be counterbalanced by other potential advantages for children born to older fathers.

  4. Chinese Preschool Children’s Socioemotional Development: The Effects of Maternal and Paternal Psychological Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shufen Xing

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The present study examined the relative prediction and joint effects of maternal and paternal psychological control on children’s socioemotional development. A total of 325 preschool children between the ages of 34 and 57 months (M = 4 years 2 months and their parents participated in the study. Fathers and mothers, respectively, reported their levels of psychological control and mothers evaluated the socioemotional development of children using two indicators (i.e., behavioral problems and prosocial behaviors. The results indicated that the relative predictive effects of maternal and paternal psychological control on children’s socioemotional development differed. Specifically, maternal psychological control was a significant predictor of children’s behavioral problems and prosocial behaviors, whereas the levels of paternal psychological control were unrelated to children’s socioemotional development. With regard to the combined effects of maternal and paternal psychological control, the results of ANOVAs and simple slope analysis both indicated that children would be at risk of behavioral problems as long as they had one highly psychologically controlling parent. High levels of paternal psychological control were associated with increased behavioral problems of children only when maternal psychological control was low. However, the association between maternal psychological control and children’s behavioral behaviors was significant, despite paternal psychological control.

  5. The relation between maternal schizophrenia and low birth weight is modified by paternal age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Herng-Ching; Lee, Hsin-Chien; Tang, Chao-Hsuin; Chen, Yi-Hua

    2010-06-01

    Paternal characteristics have never been considered in the relation between maternal schizophrenia and adverse pregnancy outcomes. The aim of our study was to consider different paternal ages while investigating the relation between maternal schizophrenia and low birth weight (LBW), using a nationwide population-based dataset. Our study used data from the 2001 to 2003 Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Dataset and birth certificate registry. A total of 543 394 singleton live births were included. We performed multivariate logistic regression analyses to explore the relation between maternal schizophrenia and the risk of LBW, taking different paternal age groups into account (aged 29 years or younger, 30 to 39 years, and 40 years and older), and after adjusting for other characteristics of infant, mother, and father as well as the difference between the parent's ages. Mothers with schizophrenia had a higher percentage of LBW infants than mothers who did not (11.8%, compared with 6.8%). For infants whose mothers had schizophrenia, the adjusted odds ratios of LBW were 1.47 (95% CI 1.02 to 2.27, P paternal age groups of 30 to 39 years and 40 years or older, respectively. However, maternal schizophrenia was not a significant predictor of LBW for infants whose fathers were aged 29 years and younger. The relation between LBW and maternal schizophrenia is modified by paternal age. More attention should be paid to the interaction of paternal characteristics and maternal psychiatric disorders in producing adverse pregnancy outcomes.

  6. Adolescent obesity and maternal and paternal sensitivity and monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neal Davis, R; Ashba, Jacqueline; Appugliese, Danielle P; Kaciroti, Niko; Corwyn, Robert F; Bradley, Robert H; Lumeng, Julie C

    2011-06-01

    To determine if adolescent obesity is associated with parenting characterized by lower sensitivity and lower monitoring of adolescent activities. We used data from 744 adolescents in the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development. Height and weight were measured at age 15½ years and obesity defined as body mass index ≥ 95th percentile for age and sex. Maternal and paternal sensitivity were assessed by direct observation of a parent-adolescent interaction task. Maternal and paternal monitoring were assessed by parent report. Lower sensitivity and lower monitoring were each defined as the lowest quartiles. Two separate multivariate logistic regression models were created to evaluate, individually for mothers and fathers, associations of sensitivity and monitoring with adolescent obesity, controlling for adolescent sex and race, family income-to-needs ratio, and parental obesity. Fourteen percent of the adolescents were obese. Lower sensitivity was associated with adolescent obesity in the maternal parenting model (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 2.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.44-3.86, n = 709), but not paternal parenting model (AOR = 0.79, 95% CI 0.38-1.63, n = 460). Neither maternal nor paternal monitoring was associated with adolescent obesity (AOR = 1.03, 95% CI 0.63-1.68; AOR = 1.07, 95% CI 0.52-2.22, respectively). Lower maternal sensitivity, measured by direct observation of parent-adolescent interactions, was associated with adolescent obesity. Efforts to prevent and treat childhood obesity, both at the practitioner level and the community level, may be enhanced by educating parents that their reactions to their children's behaviors may have consequences related to obesity.

  7. Libertarian Paternalism Is Not an Oxymoron

    OpenAIRE

    Sunstein, Cass Robert

    2003-01-01

    The idea of libertarian paternalism might seem to be an oxymoron, but it is both possible and legitimate for private and public institutions to affect behavior while also respecting freedom of choice. Often people’s preferences are ill-formed, and their choices will inevitably be influenced by default rules, framing effects, and starting points. In these circumstances, a form of paternalism cannot be avoided. Equipped with an understanding of behavioral findings of bounded rationality and bou...

  8. Application of probabilistic risk assessment to reprocessing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perkins, W.C.

    1984-01-01

    The Savannah River Laboratory uses probabilistic methods of risk assessment in safety analyses of reprocessing facilities at the Savannah River Plant. This method uses both the probability of an accident and its consequence to calculate the risks from radiological, chemical, and industrial hazards. The three principal steps in such an assesment are identification of accidents, calculation of frequencies, and consequence quantification. The tools used at SRL include several databanks, logic tree methods, and computer-assisted methods for calculating both frequencies and consequences. 5 figures

  9. Assessing the Environmental Risks of Nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    to a wide range of technical limitations. For instance, serious knowledge gaps remain within e.g. the detection of NM in the environment, developing adequate testing equipment and protocols, and toxicity endpoints (Grieger et al., 2009). In the past few years, many scientists and organizations have...... considered. Furthermore, we recommend the use of biomonitoring in some environmental ‘hot spots’ to serve as early warning detectors while the field of NM environmental risk assessment matures, as recommended in our previous work. Ultimately, this analysis may aid the advancement of environmental risk...

  10. A risk assessment of the SAFR plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rutherford, P.D.; Mills, J.C.; Lancet, R.T.; Nourjah, P.

    1987-01-01

    The Sodium Advanced Fast Reactor (SAFR) is a modular, advanced concept, Liquid Metal Reactor (LMR), funded by the U.S., and designed by Rockwell International, Bechtel Corporation, and Combustion Engineering. SAFR utilizes the inherently safe features of small fast reactors, including natural convection decay heat removal systems, a self-actuated shutdown system (SASS) and inherent core response to design basis events without scram including transient overpower (TOP), loss of flow (LOF), and loss of heat sink (LOHS) events. A Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been performed which demonstrates considerable reduction in plant and public risk compared to current commercial reactors. (orig./HSCH)

  11. Risk assessment: A European Community perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haigh, R [Industrial Medicine and Hygiene Unit Health and Safety Directorate, Directorate-General Employment, Industrial Relations and Social Affairs Commission of the European Communities, Luxembourg (Luxembourg)

    1992-07-01

    The world is a risky place in which to live{exclamation_point} The world tolerates that 750,000 deaths occur on the roads each year. Society has not yet come to terms with the added burden that urbanisation brings to developing countries. Pollution from the use of fossil fuels creates incalculable loss to the world's environment and to the health of its inhabitants. The misuse of chemicals provokes suffering and deformity. In the European Community alone, over 21 million tonnes of toxic waste have to be treated each year. Of course, there are different types of risk: individual and societal. Individuals continue to travel by air in defiance of terrorists or faulty machinery. Whilst society urges caution in diet and nutrition, the individual is probably more worried about food additives that he is about eating too much or making a rigorous appraisal of the value of his die{exclamation_point}. As the conference progresses many people will die from the causes of malnutrition, from war or societal neglect while we, individually, will be more at risk from overeating. In other words, we perceive risks is in a multitude of ways. We tolerate these risks according to our perception of what we feel is acceptable without carrying out scientific assessment of the relative severity of those risks. If applied at a governmental level, this subjective tolerance can lead to unnecessary burdens or constraints that are disproportionate to the risk. Clearly, this is not acceptable for policy makers. We have just seen the closure of the UNCED World Conference on the Environment in Rio de Janeiro, where the absolute need for more effective cooperation in the protection of the environment and the world inhabitants was convincingly demonstrated. The European Communities already coordinate risk assessment with its twelve Member States in a large number of areas and is increasing its international cooperation. We have recognized that it is no longer possible to carry out effective risk

  12. Risk assessment: A European Community perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haigh, R.

    1992-01-01

    The world is a risky place in which to live! The world tolerates that 750,000 deaths occur on the roads each year. Society has not yet come to terms with the added burden that urbanisation brings to developing countries. Pollution from the use of fossil fuels creates incalculable loss to the world's environment and to the health of its inhabitants. The misuse of chemicals provokes suffering and deformity. In the European Community alone, over 21 million tonnes of toxic waste have to be treated each year. Of course, there are different types of risk: individual and societal. Individuals continue to travel by air in defiance of terrorists or faulty machinery. Whilst society urges caution in diet and nutrition, the individual is probably more worried about food additives that he is about eating too much or making a rigorous appraisal of the value of his die!. As the conference progresses many people will die from the causes of malnutrition, from war or societal neglect while we, individually, will be more at risk from overeating. In other words, we perceive risks is in a multitude of ways. We tolerate these risks according to our perception of what we feel is acceptable without carrying out scientific assessment of the relative severity of those risks. If applied at a governmental level, this subjective tolerance can lead to unnecessary burdens or constraints that are disproportionate to the risk. Clearly, this is not acceptable for policy makers. We have just seen the closure of the UNCED World Conference on the Environment in Rio de Janeiro, where the absolute need for more effective cooperation in the protection of the environment and the world inhabitants was convincingly demonstrated. The European Communities already coordinate risk assessment with its twelve Member States in a large number of areas and is increasing its international cooperation. We have recognized that it is no longer possible to carry out effective risk assessment in one country alone or to

  13. Paternal Age Alters Social Development in Offspring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janecka, Magdalena; Haworth, Claire M A; Ronald, Angelica; Krapohl, Eva; Happé, Francesca; Mill, Jonathan; Schalkwyk, Leonard C; Fernandes, Cathy; Reichenberg, Abraham; Rijsdijk, Frühling

    2017-05-01

    Advanced paternal age (APA) at conception has been linked with autism and schizophrenia in offspring, neurodevelopmental disorders that affect social functioning. The current study explored the effects of paternal age on social development in the general population. We used multilevel growth modeling to investigate APA effects on socioemotional development from early childhood until adolescence, as measured by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) in the Twins Early Development Study (TEDS) sample. We also investigated genetic and environmental underpinnings of the paternal age effects on development, using the Additive genetics, Common environment, unique Environment (ACE) and gene-environment (GxE) models. In the general population, both very young and advanced paternal ages were associated with altered trajectory of social development (intercept: p = .01; slope: p = .03). No other behavioral domain was affected by either young or advanced age at fatherhood, suggesting specificity of paternal age effects. Increased importance of genetic factors in social development was recorded in the offspring of older but not very young fathers, suggesting distinct underpinnings of the paternal age effects at these two extremes. Our findings highlight that the APA-related deficits that lead to autism and schizophrenia are likely continuously distributed in the population. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Multiple paternity in reptiles: patterns and processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uller, Tobias; Olsson, Mats

    2008-06-01

    The evolution of female promiscuity poses an intriguing problem as benefits of mating with multiple males often have to arise via indirect, genetic, effects. Studies on birds have documented that multiple paternity is common in natural populations but strong evidence for selection via female benefits is lacking. In an attempt to evaluate the evidence more broadly, we review studies of multiple paternity in natural populations of all major groups of nonavian reptiles. Multiple paternity has been documented in all species investigated so far and commonly exists in over 50% of clutches, with particularly high levels in snakes and lizards. Marine turtles and lizards with prolonged pair-bonding have relatively low levels of multiple paternity but levels are nevertheless higher than in many vertebrates with parental care. There is no evidence that high levels of polyandry are driven by direct benefits to females and the evidence that multiple paternity arises from indirect genetic benefits is weak. Instead, we argue that the most parsimonious explanation for patterns of multiple paternity is that it represents the combined effect of mate-encounter frequency and conflict over mating rates between males and females driven by large male benefits and relatively small female costs, with only weak selection via indirect benefits. A crucial step for researchers is to move from correlative approaches to experimental tests of assumptions and predictions of theory under natural settings, using a combination of molecular techniques and behavioural observations.

  15. Ionizing radiation risk assessment, BEIR IV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-10-01

    This report of the Subpanel discusses the potential impact on Federal agencies and indicates individual risk factors that could be used by them in risk assessment. The approach used in this CIRRPC report was to consider the risk factors presented in BEIR IV for each radionuclide (or group radioelements) and to make some judgments regarding their validity and/or the uncertainties involved. The coverage of Radon-222 and its progeny dominated the BEIR IV report and this Subpanel felt is was proper to devote more attention to this radionuclide family. This risk factor presented in BEIR IV for radon is 350 cancer deaths per million person-working level months (WLM) of exposure for a lifetime. There is a range of opinions on the conversion from WLM to absorbed dose. As discussed in the text, the use of the WLM concept makes it difficult or infeasible to compare the risk factor for radon with that of other radionuclides which are based on organ dose. This report also includes a discussion of certain fundamental scientific and operational issues that may have decisive effect upon risk factor selection. These adjunct items are dealt with under separate headings and include discussions of threshold dose considerations, extrapolation to low doses, and age at exposure

  16. Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

    1994-08-01

    The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

  17. Can systematic reviews inform GMO risk assessment and risk management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian eKohl

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a gold standard for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper we 1 consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO and 2 critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  18. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  19. Health risk assessment for program managers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jump, R.A.; Williamson, D.S.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents the findings of a sensitivity analysis into the independent variables that determine the levels of health risks posed by buried plutonium and americium at a typical contaminated site in an arid region. Environmental Restoration Program Managers often must make decisions concerning cleanup levels, remediation alternatives, schedules, cost estimates, etc. based upon extraordinarily safe assumptions about risk assessment calculation inputs. This study reveals to the Program Manager which variables are major drivers to the calculated levels of risk posed by transuranic radionuclides and which ones have second order effects or less. The findings of this study should indicate which inputs should be the focus of attention during negotiations with regulators and of further empirical investigation

  20. Assessing the risk of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Letourneau, E.G.; McCullough, R.S.; Meyerhof, D.P.; Somers, E.; Waight, P.J.

    1981-01-01

    The current concern with diminishing supplies of non-renewable energy has brought into clearer focus the debate on the future of nuclear energy. Application of the risk assessment process to the biological effects of radiation is considered worthwhile so that the nature and order of the hazards entailed can be appreciated in the total context of the problem. The derivation of regulations and the process of cost-risk-benefit analysis are also discussed. In view of the widespread public concern and, on occasion, apprehension about the development of nuclear energy it has been thought useful to tabulate the elements of this concern so as to gain a fuller understanding of the manner in which the public perceives and weighs risks. (author)

  1. Risk assessment of topically applied products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søborg, Tue; Basse, Line Hollesen; Halling-Sørensen, Bent

    2007-01-01

    The human risk of harmful substances in semisolid topical dosage forms applied topically to normal skin and broken skin, respectively, was assessed. Bisphenol A diglycidyl ether (BADGE) and three derivatives of BADGE previously quantified in aqueous cream and the UV filters 3-BC and 4-MBC were used...... as model compounds. Tolerable daily intake (TDI) values have been established for BADGE and derivatives. Endocrine disruption was chosen as endpoint for 3-BC and 4-MBC. Skin permeation of the model compounds was investigated in vitro using pig skin membranes. Tape stripping was applied to simulate broken...... parameters for estimating the risk. The immediate human risk of BADGE and derivatives in topical dosage forms was found to be low. However, local treatment of broken skin may lead to higher exposure of BADGE and derivatives compared to application to normal skin. 3-BC permeated skin at higher flux than 4-MBC...

  2. N reactor external events probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baxter, J.T.

    1989-01-01

    An external events probabilistic risk assessment of the N Reactor has been completed. The methods used are those currently being proposed for external events analysis in NUREG-1150. Results are presented for the external hazards that survived preliminary screening. They are earthquake, fire, and external flood. Core damage frequencies for these hazards are shown to be comparable to those for commercial pressurized water reactors. Dominant fire sequences are described and related to 10 CFR 50, Appendix R design requirements. Potential remedial measures that reduce fire core damage risk are described including modifications to fire protection systems, procedure changes, and addition of new administrative controls. Dominant seismic sequences are described. The effect of non-safety support system dependencies on seismic risk is presented

  3. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  4. System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krantz, E.A.; Russell, K.D.; Stewart, H.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1986-01-01

    Utilization of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) related information in the day-to-day operation of plant systems has, in the past, been impracticable due to the size of the computers needed to run PRA codes. This paper discusses a microcomputer-based database system which can greatly enhance the capability of operators or regulators to incorporate PRA methodologies into their routine decision making. This system is called the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system. SARA was developed by EG and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory to facilitate the study of frequency and consequence analyses of accident sequences from a large number of light water reactors (LWRs) in this country. This information is being amassed by several studies sponsored by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). To meet the need of portability and accessibility, and to perform the variety of calculations necessary, it was felt that a microcomputer-based system would be most suitable

  5. Civil migration and risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onishi, Y.; Brown, S.M.; Olsen, A.R.; Parkhurst, M.A.

    1981-01-01

    To provide a scientific basis for risk assessment and decision making, the Chemical Migration and Risk Assessment (CMRA) Methodology was developed to simulate overland and instream toxic containment migration and fate, and to predict the probability of acute and chronic impacts on aquatic biota. The simulation results indicated that the time between the pesticide application and the subsequent runoff producing event was the most important factor determining the amount of the alachlor. The study also revealed that sediment transport has important effects on contaminant migration when sediment concentrations in receiving streams are high or contaminants are highly susceptible to adsorption by sediment. Although the capabilities of the CMRA methodology were only partially tested in this study, the results demonstrate that methodology can be used as a scientific decision-making tool for toxic chemical regulations, a research tool to evaluate the relative significance of various transport and degradation phenomena, as well as a tool to examine the effectiveness of toxic chemical control practice

  6. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero Rojo, F. J.; Roy, R.; Kelly, S.

    2012-05-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  7. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rojo, F J Romero; Roy, R; Kelly, S

    2012-01-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  8. Paternal Stimulation and Early Child Development in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Joshua; McCoy, Dana Charles; Yousafzai, Aisha K; Salhi, Carmel; Fink, Günther

    2016-10-01

    Few studies have examined the relationship between paternal stimulation and children's growth and development, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of paternal stimulation and to assess whether paternal stimulation was associated with early child growth and development. Data from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys rounds 4 and 5 were combined across 38 LMICs. The sample comprised 87 286 children aged 3 and 4 years. Paternal stimulation was measured by the number of play and learning activities (up to 6) a father engaged in with his child over the past 3 days. Linear regression models were used to estimate standardized mean differences in height-for-age z-scores and Early Childhood Development Index (ECDI) z-scores across 3 levels of paternal stimulation, after controlling for other caregivers' stimulation and demographic covariates. A total of 47.8% of fathers did not engage in any stimulation activities, whereas 6.4% of fathers engaged in 5 or 6 stimulation activities. Children whose fathers were moderately engaged in stimulation (1-4 activities) showed ECDI scores that were 0.09 SD (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.12 to -0.06) lower than children whose fathers were highly engaged; children whose fathers were unengaged showed ECDI scores that were 0.14 SD lower (95% CI: -0.17 to -0.12). Neither moderate paternal stimulation nor lack of paternal stimulation was associated with height-for-age z-scores, relative to high stimulation. Increasing paternal engagement in stimulation is likely to improve early child development in LMICs. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  9. Risk assessment of tailings facility dam failure

    OpenAIRE

    Hadzi-Nikolova, Marija; Mirakovski, Dejan; Stefanova, Violeta

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the consequences of tailings facility dam failure and therefore the needs for its risk assessment. Tailings are fine-grained wastes of the mining industry, output as slurries, due to mixing with water during mineral processing. Tailings dams vary a lot as it is affected by: tailings characteristics and mill output, site characteristics as: topography, hydrology, geology, groundwater, seismicity and available material and disposal methods. The talings which accumulat...

  10. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    OpenAIRE

    Romero Rojo, Francisco Javier; Roy, Rajkumar; Kelly, S.

    2013-01-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for th...

  11. Information Technology Sector Baseline Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-08-01

    alternative root be economically advantageous , an actor’s ability to exploit market forces and create an alternative root would be significantly improved...conduct their operations. Therefore, a loss or disruption to Internet services would not be advantageous for the desired outcomes of these syndicates.26... eCommerce Service loss or disruption [C] Traffic Redirection [C] = Undesired consequence Information Technology Sector Baseline Risk Assessment

  12. Mergers and acquisitions: valuation and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McVeigh, C.A.

    1996-01-01

    An overview of various aspects of mergers and acquisition transactions in the petroleum industry were presented. Incentives to mergers and acquisitions were reviewed and discussed, among them value opportunity, critical size, incremental tax pools, financial distress, shareholder dissatisfaction, strategic infrastructure position, complementary assets, and undeveloped land inventory. Current trends in mergers and acquisitions were highlighted. An industry checklist for risk assessments discussing financial position, engineering forecasts, and taxation was also included

  13. Remarks on sequential designs in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seidenfeld, T.

    1982-01-01

    The special merits of sequential designs are reviewed in light of particular challenges that attend risk assessment for human population. The kinds of ''statistical inference'' are distinguished and the problem of design which is pursued is the clash between Neyman-Pearson and Bayesian programs of sequential design. The value of sequential designs is discussed and the Neyman-Pearson vs. Bayesian sequential designs are probed in particular. Finally, warnings with sequential designs are considered, especially in relation to utilitarianism

  14. Insights gained through probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hitchler, M.J.; Burns, N.L.; Liparulo, N.J.; Mink, F.J.

    1987-01-01

    The insights gained through a comparison of seven probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) studies (Italian PUN, Sizewell B, Ringhals 2, Millstone 3, Zion 1 and 2, Oconee 3, and Seabrook) included insights regarding the adequacy of the PRA technology utilized in the studies and the potential areas for improvement and insights regarding the adequacy of plant designs and how PRA has been utilized to enhance the design and operation of nuclear power plants

  15. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  16. Gender, risk assessment, and political ambition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet-Cushman, Jennie

    2016-01-01

    In the United States, women have long held the right to vote and can participate fully in the political process, and yet they are underrepresented at all levels of elected office. Worldwide, men's dominance in the realm of politics has also been the norm. To date, scholars have focused on supply-side and demand-side explanations of women's underrepresentation but differences in how men and women assess electoral risk (the risk involved in seeking political office) are not fully explained. To fill this gap, I explore how evolutionary theory offers insights into gendered differences in political ambition and the evaluation of electoral risk. Using the framework of life-history theory, I hypothesize that both cognitive and environmental factors in human evolution, particularly as they relate to sexual selection and social roles, have shaped the psychology of ambition in gendered ways affecting contemporary politics. Cognitive risk-assessment mechanisms evolving in the hominid line came to be expressed differently in females and males, in women and men. These gendered expressions plausibly reflect differentiable environmental pressures in the past and may help explain behaviors in and barriers to women's electoral political activity in the present. If so, then the success of efforts to increase such activity - or, regressively, to suppress it - may be better understood.

  17. Weighted normalized risk factor for floods risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashraf Mohamed Elmoustafa

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA describes any structured approach used to determine overall preferences among alternative options, where options accomplish certain or several objectives. The flood protection of properties is a highly important issue due to the damage, danger and other hazards associated to it to human life, properties, and environment. To determine the priority of execution of protection works for any project, many aspects should be considered in order to decide the areas to start the data collection and analysis with. Multi criteria analysis techniques were tested and evaluated for the purpose of flood risk assessment, hydro-morphological parameters were used in this analysis. Finally a suitable technique was chosen and tested to be adopted as a mark of flood risk level and results were presented.

  18. Quantum chemistry in environmental pesticide risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villaverde, Juan J; López-Goti, Carmen; Alcamí, Manuel; Lamsabhi, Al Mokhtar; Alonso-Prados, José L; Sandín-España, Pilar

    2017-11-01

    The scientific community and regulatory bodies worldwide, currently promote the development of non-experimental tests that produce reliable data for pesticide risk assessment. The use of standard quantum chemistry methods could allow the development of tools to perform a first screening of compounds to be considered for the experimental studies, improving the risk assessment. This fact results in a better distribution of resources and in better planning, allowing a more exhaustive study of the pesticides and their metabolic products. The current paper explores the potential of quantum chemistry in modelling toxicity and environmental behaviour of pesticides and their by-products by using electronic descriptors obtained computationally. Quantum chemistry has potential to estimate the physico-chemical properties of pesticides, including certain chemical reaction mechanisms and their degradation pathways, allowing modelling of the environmental behaviour of both pesticides and their by-products. In this sense, theoretical methods can contribute to performing a more focused risk assessment of pesticides used in the market, and may lead to higher quality and safer agricultural products. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  19. Comparative risk assessment in the energy industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.

    1981-01-01

    This paper covers four approaches to risk assessment in the energy industry. The first is a comparison of the primary fuel cycles - coal and nuclear - standardized to 1 GW(e) power-plant year; this gives the societal risk of the production of a standardized amount of electricity. An example from underground coal mining is given to show how these estimates for the fuel cycles were made. The second approach is a comparison of the societal and individual occupational risks for different energy cycles per GWy(e). The third approach is a comparison of the societal and individual occupational risks of four different types of photovoltaic cell manufacture; this is an example of an intratechnology comparison. The fourth approach is a risk accounting method of analysis which estimates occupational health impacts for fabrication, construction, operation, and maintenance of energy technologies, and which, through an input-output model of the national economy, includes system-wide impacts as well as direct impacts of building and operating energy facilities

  20. Bioavailability in ecological risk. Assessment for radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garnier-Laplace, J.; Gilbin, R.; Della-Vedova, C.; Adam, C.; Simon, O.; Denison, F.; Beaugelin, K.

    2005-01-01

    The guidance for performing Ecological Risk Assessments (ERA) in Europe has been published in 2003 in the EC's Technical Guidance Document. This document constitutes the official reference in which current water quality standards and risk assessment approach for metals/metalloids are still mainly based on total or dissolved concentrations. However, it has been recognized that accurate assessment of the bio-available metal fraction is crucial, even if the way to incorporate bioavailability into these procedures is still under discussion. The speciation of a pollutant in the exposure medium is the first factor that regulates its bioavailability and consequently its bioaccumulation and the induced biological effects. Therefore, within any ecological risk assessment, bioavailability has obvious implications: firstly in exposure analysis which aim is to determine Predicted Exposure Concentration (PEC); secondly in effect analysis while deriving the so-called Predicted No-Effect Concentrations (PNEC) as toxicity is often linked to the amount of the contaminant incorporated into the tissues of biota. Similarities between metals/metalloids and radionuclides are limited to the biogeochemical behaviour of the element considered and to the need to use bioavailability models. In addition, for radionuclides, emitted ionising radiations (type and energy) need to be taken into account for both exposure and effect analyses whilst performing dosimetric calculations appropriate to the exposure scenarios. A methodology for properly implementing bioavailability models is explained and illustrated for aqueous U(VI), starting from a comprehensive review of the thermodynamic data relevant to environmentally-realistic physico-chemical conditions. Then, the use of thermodynamic equilibrium modelling as a tool for interpreting the bioavailability of U(VI) is presented. Using a systematic approach, different bioavailability models of increasing complexity were tested to model U bio

  1. Assessing Risks of Mine Tailing Dam Failures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Concha Larrauri, P.; Lall, U.

    2017-12-01

    The consequences of tailings dam failures can be catastrophic for communities and ecosystems in the vicinity of the dams. The failure of the Fundão tailings dam at the Samarco mine in 2015 killed 19 people with severe consequences for the environment. The financial and legal consequences of a tailings dam failure can also be significant for the mining companies. For the Fundão tailings dam, the company had to pay 6 billion dollars in fines and twenty-one executives were charged with qualified murder. There are tenths of thousands of active, inactive, and abandoned tailings dams in the world and there is a need to better understand the hazards posed by these structures to downstream populations and ecosystems. A challenge to assess the risks of tailings dams in a large scale is that many of them are not registered in publicly available databases and there is little information about their current physical state. Additionally, hazard classifications of tailings dams - common in many countries- tend to be subjective, include vague parameter definitions, and are not always updated over time. Here we present a simple methodology to assess and rank the exposure to tailings dams using ArcGIS that removes subjective interpretations. The method uses basic information such as current dam height, storage volume, topography, population, land use, and hydrological data. A hazard rating risk was developed to compare the potential extent of the damage across dams. This assessment provides a general overview of what in the vicinity of the tailings dams could be affected in case of a failure and a way to rank tailings dams that is directly linked to the exposure at any given time. One hundred tailings dams in Minas Gerais, Brazil were used for the test case. This ranking approach could inform the risk management strategy of the tailings dams within a company, and when disclosed, it could enable shareholders and the communities to make decisions on the risks they are taking.

  2. Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

  3. The effect of paternal age on offspring intelligence and personality when controlling for paternal trait level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arslan, Ruben C; Penke, Lars; Johnson, Wendy; Iacono, William G; McGue, Matt

    2014-01-01

    Paternal age at conception has been found to predict the number of new genetic mutations. We examined the effect of father's age at birth on offspring intelligence, head circumference and personality traits. Using the Minnesota Twin Family Study sample we tested paternal age effects while controlling for parents' trait levels measured with the same precision as offspring's. From evolutionary genetic considerations we predicted a negative effect of paternal age on offspring intelligence, but not on other traits. Controlling for parental intelligence (IQ) had the effect of turning an initially positive association non-significantly negative. We found paternal age effects on offspring IQ and Multidimensional Personality Questionnaire Absorption, but they were not robustly significant, nor replicable with additional covariates. No other noteworthy effects were found. Parents' intelligence and personality correlated with their ages at twin birth, which may have obscured a small negative effect of advanced paternal age (birth order and the Flynn effect.

  4. Tsunami risk assessments in Messina, Sicily - Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grezio, A.; Gasparini, P.; Marzocchi, W.; Patera, A.; Tinti, S.

    2012-01-01

    We present a first detailed tsunami risk assessment for the city of Messina where one of the most destructive tsunami inundations of the last centuries occurred in 1908. In the tsunami hazard evaluation, probabilities are calculated through a new general modular Bayesian tool for Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment. The estimation of losses of persons and buildings takes into account data collected directly or supplied by: (i) the Italian National Institute of Statistics that provides information on the population, on buildings and on many relevant social aspects; (ii) the Italian National Territory Agency that provides updated economic values of the buildings on the basis of their typology (residential, commercial, industrial) and location (streets); and (iii) the Train and Port Authorities. For human beings, a factor of time exposition is introduced and calculated in terms of hours per day in different places (private and public) and in terms of seasons, considering that some factors like the number of tourists can vary by one order of magnitude from January to August. Since the tsunami risk is a function of the run-up levels along the coast, a variable tsunami risk zone is defined as the area along the Messina coast where tsunami inundations may occur.

  5. Area-based assessment of extinction risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hei, Fangliang

    2012-05-01

    Underpinning the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is the assessment of extinction risk as determined by the size and degree of loss of populations. The IUCN system lists a species as Critically Endangered, Endangered, or Vulnerable if its population size declines 80%, 50%, or 30% within a given time frame. However, effective implementation of the system faces substantial challenges and uncertainty because geographic scale data on population size and long-term dynamics are scarce. I develop a model to quantify extinction risk using a measure based on a species' distribution, a much more readily obtained quantity. The model calculates the loss of the area of occupancy that is equivalent to the loss of a given proportion of a population. It is a very simple yet general model that has no free parameters and is independent of scale. The model predicted well the distributions of 302 tree species at a local scale and the distributions of 348 species of North American land birds. This area-based model provides a solution to the long-standing problem for IUCN assessments of lack of data on population sizes, and thus it will contribute to facilitating the quantification of extinction risk worldwide.

  6. Spent Nuclear Fuel Alternative Technology Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perella, V.F.

    1999-11-29

    A Research Reactor Spent Nuclear Fuel Task Team (RRTT) was chartered by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Spent Fuel Management with the responsibility to recommend a course of action leading to a final technology selection for the interim management and ultimate disposition of the foreign and domestic aluminum-based research reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF) under DOE''s jurisdiction. The RRTT evaluated eleven potential SNF management technologies and recommended that two technologies, direct co-disposal and an isotopic dilution alternative, either press and dilute or melt and dilute, be developed in parallel. Based upon that recommendation, the Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) organized the SNF Alternative Technology Program to further develop the direct co-disposal and melt and dilute technologies and provide a WSRC recommendation to DOE for a preferred SNF alternative management technology. A technology risk assessment was conducted as a first step in this recommendation process to determine if either, or both, of the technologies posed significant risks that would make them unsuitable for further development. This report provides the results of that technology risk assessment.

  7. Spent Nuclear Fuel Alternative Technology Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perella, V.F.

    1999-01-01

    A Research Reactor Spent Nuclear Fuel Task Team (RRTT) was chartered by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Spent Fuel Management with the responsibility to recommend a course of action leading to a final technology selection for the interim management and ultimate disposition of the foreign and domestic aluminum-based research reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF) under DOE''s jurisdiction. The RRTT evaluated eleven potential SNF management technologies and recommended that two technologies, direct co-disposal and an isotopic dilution alternative, either press and dilute or melt and dilute, be developed in parallel. Based upon that recommendation, the Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) organized the SNF Alternative Technology Program to further develop the direct co-disposal and melt and dilute technologies and provide a WSRC recommendation to DOE for a preferred SNF alternative management technology. A technology risk assessment was conducted as a first step in this recommendation process to determine if either, or both, of the technologies posed significant risks that would make them unsuitable for further development. This report provides the results of that technology risk assessment

  8. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  9. Information Security Risk Assessment in Hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayatollahi, Haleh; Shagerdi, Ghazal

    2017-01-01

    To date, many efforts have been made to classify information security threats, especially in the healthcare area. However, there are still many unknown risks which may threat the security of health information and their resources especially in the hospitals. The aim of this study was to assess the risks threatening information security in the hospitals located in one of the northwest cities of Iran. This study was completed in 2014. The participants were information technology managers who worked in the hospitals (n=27). The research instrument was a questionnaire composed of a number of open and closed questions. The content validity of the questionnaire was confirmed, and the reliability of the closed questions was measured by using the test-retest method (r =0.78). The results showed that among the information security risks, fire found to be a high probability/high impact risk factor. Human and physical/environmental threats were among the low probability risk factors. Regarding the information security safeguards used in the hospitals, the results showed that the use of the technical safeguards was the most frequent one (n =22, 91.7%) compared to the administrative (n =21, 87.5%) and the physical safeguards (n =16, 66.7%). The high probability risk factors require quick corrective actions to be taken. Therefore, the underlying causes of such threats should be identified and controlled before experiencing adverse effects. It is also important to note that information security in health care systems needs to be considered at a macro level with respect to the national interests and policies.

  10. The importance of radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pochin, E.E.

    1979-01-01

    In its Publication 26, ICRP recommends a system of radiation dose limitation that is designed to ensure adequate protection from the harmful effects of radiation in conditions both of occupational and of environmental exposure. Clearly, however, no such system can be recommended or accepted as sufficiently safe unless the risks of the resultant exposures have been quantitatively assessed. Publication 26 reflects the increasing quantitative information that is now available on (a) carcinogenic risks of radiation in man, both from exposure of the whole body and from that of individual organs, at moderate exposures; (b) theoretical bases for inference of risk, from moderate to lower exposures; (c) genetic risks in the mouse, and inferences from such risks to those in man; (d) the dose equivalent levels at which certain non-stochastic effects may be induced. Despite a number of uncertainties, substantially improved estimates can therefore be made of the levels of safety that are likely to be achieved by observing the Commission's recommended dose limits, and the associated system of limitation of exposures to levels as low as reasonably achievable below these limits. Both for occupational exposure and for the exposure of the members of the public, these estimates are expressed in Publication 26 in terms of the risk of inducing fatal malignancies or serious hereditary ill health. These frequencies are compared with those of occupational fatalities in other industries or with accidental fatalities amongst the general public. The comparison between harm from radiation and from other agents in different industries is extended in ICRP-27 (on ''Problems Involved in Developing an Index of Harm'') in a review of the time lost through occupational diseases and non-fatal accidents, as well as from fatal diseases and accidents, so that the levels of safety achievable by the Commission's recommendations can be reviewed in the general perspective of occupational safety. (author)

  11. Ergonomic risk assessment by REBA method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hassanzadeh

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Background and aims   Awkward posture has been recognized as one of the important risk factors of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSD. The current study aimed at determining ergonomic risk level, WMSDs ratio and exploring working postures contribution to WMSD. During the study, working postures were phased and then they were scored using the REBAtool from observing the work.   Methods   To perform the study, workers of a home appliances manufacturing factory were  assessed. In order to collecting required data, each part of the body was scored and work frequency,  load/force, coupling were considered to achieve a REBA score. Nordic Questionnaire was used  to determining WMSD ratio and its relationship whit REBA score. 231 working phases were  assessed and 13761 questions using Nordic Questionnaire were answered. Percentage of the workers in press, spot welding, grinding, cutting, assembling, and painting was 15.8, 21.6, 25.9, 34.5, 89.9%, respectively. Workers were 18-54 years old and their work recording average was 52  month.   Results   REBAscore was 4-13 in under study tasks. REBA score = 9 had the most frequency  (20% and REBA score =13 had the least frequency (1.4%. Risk level in press, cutting, and  painting was high (25.5, 100, 68.2% cases. This shows that cutting has the highest risk level. On the other hand 38.5% of the workers in past 12 month had problem in different parts of their body. Totally 11.7% of the workers had problem in neck, 19.4$ in leg, 10.7% in foot, 82.5% in lower back,  87.6% in upper back and 7.8% in shoulders.10.7% of the workers had previous illness that 8.7%  of them were non occupational and 1.9% were caused their previous jobs. The REBAscore mean  and ergonomic risk level is not equal in tasks (p-value0. Action level was necessary  soon in others.   Conclusion   Risk level should be reduced specially in cutting. The heavy workload and  working height poor design, awkward

  12. Excipient Usage Technical Risk Assessment for Generic Solid Dose Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajay Babu Pazhayattil

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an assessment methodology for solid dose generic small molecule drug products. It addresses the ‘usage of the excipient’ portion of the trinomial by utilizing the systematic approach of Risk Identification, Risk Analysis and Risk Evaluation as per ICH Q9 Quality Risk Management outlined for developing risk control strategies. The assessment and maintenance of excipient risk profile is essential to minimize any potential risk associated to excipients impacting patients.

  13. Use of quantitative uncertainty analysis for human health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duncan, F.L.W.; Gordon, J.W.; Kelly, M.

    1994-01-01

    Current human health risk assessment method for environmental risks typically use point estimates of risk accompanied by qualitative discussions of uncertainty. Alternatively, Monte Carlo simulations may be used with distributions for input parameters to estimate the resulting risk distribution and descriptive risk percentiles. These two techniques are applied for the ingestion of 1,1=dichloroethene in ground water. The results indicate that Monte Carlo simulations provide significantly more information for risk assessment and risk management than do point estimates

  14. Risk assessment and radioactive waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, J.J.

    1979-01-01

    Problems of radioactive waste management, both real and apparent, have provided a serious constraint in the development of nuclear power. Several studies have been conducted in an attempt to evaluate the actual (quantifiable) risks of radioactive waste management and place them in a reasonable perspective. These studies are reviewed and discussed. Generally, the studies indicate the risks to be of a level of seriousness which might normally be considered acceptable in current society. However, it is apparent that this acceptability has not been attained and public apprehension prevails. To understand the reasons for this apprehension requires an assessment of those factors of ''perceived'' risks which play a major role in determining public attitudes toward radioactive waste management programs and nuclear power, in general. Such factors might include the spector of legacies of harm to future generations, genetic effects, nuclear garbage dumps, proliferation of plutonium inventories, nuclear terrorism, etc. A major problem in development of acceptable waste management policies and programs requires not only the recognition of the importance of perceived risk factors but development of a methodology for their incorporation in planning and conduct of such activities. Some approaches to the development of this methodology are discussed

  15. Probabilistic risk assessment in the CPI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guymer, P.; Kaiser, G.D.; Mc Kelvey, T.C.; Hannaman, G.W.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a method of quantifying the frequency of occurrence and magnitude of the consequences of accidents in systems that contain hazardous materials such as toxic, flammable or explosive chemicals. The frequency and magnitude of the consequences are the basic elements in the definition of risk, often simply expressed as the product of frequency and magnitude, summed over all accident sequences. PRA is a mature technique that has been used to estimate risk for a number of industrial facilities: for example, the Canvey Island Petrochemical complex; the Port of Rotterdam; the Reactor Safety Study, the first study to put the risks associated with nuclear power into perspective; and the transportation of chlorine. PRA has been developed to a greater level of sophistication in the nuclear industry than in the chemical industry. In the nuclear area, its usefulness has been demonstrated by increased plant safety, engineering insights, and cost-saving recommendations. Data and methods have been developed to increase the level of realism of the treatment of operator actions in PRA studies. It can be stated generally that the same methods can be applied with equal success in the chemical industry. However, there are pitfalls into which the unwary nuclear-oriented PRA analyst may stumble if he does not bear in mind that there are significant differences between nuclear plants and chemical plants

  16. Harmonization of international risk assessment protocol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toyofuku, Hajime . E-mail toyofuku@nihs.go.jp

    2006-01-01

    For over centuries developments in food production and new food safety management systems in most developed countries have been perceived by many to be efficient in the prevention of food-borne disease. Nevertheless a number of problems remain dominant, one of these being the high level of food-borne microbiological disease which seems, for some pathogens, to have increased over the last decades. The development of an interdisciplinary approach with direct interaction between surveillance and risk analysis systems is described as a potential basis for improved prevention of food-borne disease. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment is a relatively new scientific approach, able to link data from food within the entire food chain and the various data on human disease to provide a clear estimation of risk. Today food safety is one of the WHOs top eleven priorities; the Organization calls for more systematic and aggressive steps to be taken to reduce significantly the risk of microbiological food-borne diseases. Dealing with this challenge is one of the major challenges for the 21st century in regard to food safety, implying a significant re-direction of food microbiology efforts in many parts of the world

  17. Review of the Brunswick Steam Electric Plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.; Davis, P.R.; Satterwhite, D.G.; Gilmore, W.E.; Gregg, R.E.

    1989-11-01

    A review of the Brunswick Steam Electric Plant probabilistic risk Assessment was conducted with the objective of confirming the safety perspectives brought to light by the probabilistic risk assessment. The scope of the review included the entire Level I probabilistic risk assessment including external events. This is consistent with the scope of the probabilistic risk assessment. The review included an assessment of the assumptions, methods, models, and data used in the study. 47 refs., 14 figs., 15 tabs

  18. Paternal B vitamin intake is a determinant of growth, hepatic lipid metabolism and intestinal tumor volume in female Apc1638N mouse offspring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background: The importance of maternal nutrition to offspring health and risk of disease is well established. Emerging evidence suggests paternal diet may affect offspring health as well. Objective: In the current study we sought to determine whether modulating pre-conception paternal B vitamin inta...

  19. Genetic cancer risk assessment in practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gruber, S.

    2004-01-01

    The advent of genetic testing has made a dramatic impact on the management of individuals with inherited susceptibility to cancer and their relatives. Genetic counsel ing, with or without testing, is warranted when clues to familial cancer are recognized. Today, genetic testing for classic cancer genetic syndromes is now the standard of care, and has been complemented by genetic testing for other situations commonly encountered in clinical practice. Genetic testing for colorectal cancer, breast cancer, kidney cancer, thyroid cancer, melanoma, and pancreatic cancer raise important issues about the parameters for testing. Genetic cancer risk assessment can lead to measurable reductions in morbidity and mortality through strategies that rely on surveillance, chemo prevention, and risk-reducing surgery

  20. Conceptual models for cumulative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linder, Stephen H; Sexton, Ken

    2011-12-01

    In the absence of scientific consensus on an appropriate theoretical framework, cumulative risk assessment and related research have relied on speculative conceptual models. We argue for the importance of theoretical backing for such models and discuss 3 relevant theoretical frameworks, each supporting a distinctive "family" of models. Social determinant models postulate that unequal health outcomes are caused by structural inequalities; health disparity models envision social and contextual factors acting through individual behaviors and biological mechanisms; and multiple stressor models incorporate environmental agents, emphasizing the intermediary role of these and other stressors. The conclusion is that more careful reliance on established frameworks will lead directly to improvements in characterizing cumulative risk burdens and accounting for disproportionate adverse health effects.