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Sample records for assessing paternal risk

  1. Paternal age and risk for cesarean delivery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faro, Revital; Santolaya-Forgas, Joaquin; Canterino, Joseph C; Oyelese, Yinka; Ananth, Cande V

    2012-12-01

    To determine whether advanced paternal age is associated with increased risk for cesarean delivery. We used the 1990-2002 US linked live birth and infant death data files restricted to primiparous Caucasian and African-American women that delivered a singleton birth at ≥20 week's gestation (12.5 million). We examined temporal trends and risk ratios of cesarean birth in relation to paternal age before and after adjustments for known confounders. Among Caucasians, the cesarean delivery rates were 21.1%, 26.7% and 31.8% in fathers aged 20-29, 30-39 and ≥40 years, respectively. Among African-Americans, the corresponding rates were 24.1%, 33.2%, and 38.1%, respectively. These increased cesarean delivery rates persisted in analyses stratified by maternal age before and after adjustment for a variety of confounders. These findings suggest that increasing paternal age may be associated with an increased risk for cesarean delivery in primiparous women.

  2. Assessing the impact of paternal involvement on racial/ethnic disparities in infant mortality rates.

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    Alio, Amina P; Mbah, Alfred K; Kornosky, Jennifer L; Wathington, Deanna; Marty, Phillip J; Salihu, Hamisu M

    2011-02-01

    We sought to assess the contribution of paternal involvement to racial disparities in infant mortality. Using vital records data from singleton births in Florida between 1998 and 2005, we generated odds ratios (OR), 95% confidence intervals (CI), and preventative fractions to assess the association between paternal involvement and infant mortality. Paternal involvement status was based on presence/absence of paternal first and/or last name on the birth certificate. Disparities in infant mortality were observed between and within racial/ethnic subpopulations. When compared to Hispanic (NH)-white women with involved fathers, NH-black women with involved fathers had a two-fold increased risk of infant mortality whereas infants born to black women with absent fathers had a seven-fold increased risk of infant mortality. Elevated risks of infant mortality were also observed for Hispanic infants with absent fathers (OR = 3.33. 95%CI = 2.66-4.17). About 65-75% of excess mortality could be prevented with increased paternal involvement. Paternal absence widens the black-white gap in infant mortality almost four-fold. Intervention programs to improve perinatal paternal involvement may decrease the burden of absent father-associated infant mortality.

  3. Paternal Smoking and Risk of Childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

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    Ruiling Liu

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To investigate the association between paternal smoking and childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL. Method. We identified 18 published epidemiologic studies that reported data on both paternal smoking and childhood ALL risk. We performed a meta-analysis and analyzed dose-response relationships on ALL risk for smoking during preconception, during pregnancy, after birth, and ever smoking. Results. The summary odds ratio (OR of childhood ALL associated with paternal smoking was 1.11 (95% Confidence Interval (CI: 1.05–1.18, I2=18% during any time period, 1.25 (95% CI: 1.08–1.46, I2=53% preconception; 1.24 (95% CI: 1.07–1.43, I2=54% during pregnancy, and 1.24 (95% CI: 0.96–1.60, I2=64% after birth, with a dose-response relationship between childhood ALL and paternal smoking preconception or after birth. Conclusion. The evidence supports a positive association between childhood ALL and paternal ever smoking and at each exposure time period examined. Future epidemiologic studies should assess paternal smoking during well-defined exposure windows and should include biomarkers to assess smoking exposure and toxicological mechanisms.

  4. Paternal Influences on Adolescent Sexual Risk Behaviors: A Structured Literature Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouris, Alida; Lee, Jane; McCarthy, Katharine; Michael, Shannon L.; Pitt-Barnes, Seraphine; Dittus, Patricia

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: To date, most parent-based research has neglected the role of fathers in shaping adolescent sexual behavior and has focused on mothers. The objective of this study was to conduct a structured review to assess the role of paternal influence on adolescent sexual behavior and to assess the methodological quality of the paternal influence literature related to adolescent sexual behavior. METHODS: We searched electronic databases: PubMed, PsychINFO, Social Services Abstracts, Family Studies Abstracts, Sociological Abstracts, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature. Studies published between 1980 and 2011 that targeted adolescents 11 to 18 years and focused on paternal parenting processes were included. Methodological quality was assessed by using an 11-item scoring system. RESULTS: Thirteen articles were identified and reviewed. Findings suggest paternal factors are independently associated with adolescent sexual behavior relative to maternal factors. The most commonly studied paternal influence was emotional qualities of the father-adolescent relationship. Paternal communication about sex was most consistently associated with adolescent sexual behavior, whereas paternal attitudes about sex was least associated. Methodological limitations include a tendency to rely on cross-sectional design, nonprobability sampling methods, and focus on sexual debut versus broader sexual behavior. CONCLUSIONS: Existing research preliminarily suggests fathers influence the sexual behavior of their adolescent children; however, more rigorous research examining diverse facets of paternal influence on adolescent sexual behavior is needed. We provide recommendations for primary care providers and public health practitioners to better incorporate fathers into interventions designed to reduce adolescent sexual risk behavior. PMID:23071205

  5. Brief report of a test of differential alcohol risk using sibling attributions of paternal alcoholism.

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    Boynton, Marcella H; Arkes, Jeremy; Hoyle, Rick H

    2011-11-01

    Parental alcoholism is generally found to be a strong predictor of alcohol misuse. Although the majority of siblings agree on the presence of parental alcohol issues, there is a significant minority who do not. The current study analyzed sibling data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth using multilevel modeling, which accounts for the nested structure of the data. These analyses permitted a test of whether (a) identifying one's father as an alcoholic predicted greater risk of alcohol problems, (b) being from a family whose siblings did not all agree on the presence of paternal alcoholism increased the likelihood of alcohol problems, and (c) risk of alcohol misuse significantly differed among individuals from families in which there was familial disagreement about paternal alcoholism. Results show that individuals who identified their father as an alcoholic were themselves more likely to have alcohol issues as compared with individuals both within and between families who did not identify their father as an alcoholic. Risk was similar for individuals in families in which there was disagreement about paternal alcoholism compared with individuals from families in which everyone agreed on the presence of paternal alcoholism. Moreover, there was not a significant interaction between paternal alcoholism attributions and familial disagreement. Findings indicate that in the case of child reports of paternal alcoholism, the increased risk of alcohol problems holds true regardless of the accuracy of an individual's assessment. These results may be not only because of the impact of paternal alcoholism on a person's alcohol misuse but also because of a person's alcohol problems potentially influencing his or her perceptions of familial alcohol-related behaviors.

  6. Is advanced paternal age a health risk for the offspring?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Anne-Marie Nybo; Urhoj, Stine Kjaer

    2017-01-01

    consistently associated with increased paternal age are stillbirths, musculo-skeletal syndromes, cleft palate, acute lymphoblastic leukemia and retinoblastoma, and neurodevelopmental disorders in the autism spectrum and schizophrenia. Finally, we consider the public health impact of the increasing paternal age...

  7. Paternal Lake Ontario fish consumption and risk of conception delay, New York state angler cohort

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buck, G.M.; Mendola, P.; Vena, J.E.; Kostyniak, P.; Greizerstein, H.; Olson, J.; Stephen, F.D. [State Univ. of New York, Buffalo, NY (United States). Dept. of Social and Preventive Medicine; Sever, L.E. [Battelle, Seattle, WA (United States). Centers for Public Health and Evaluation

    1999-02-01

    The aquatic ecosystems of the Great Lakes are contaminated with a variety of compounds, some of which are considered reproductive toxicants. Few studies of paternal fish consumption and reproductive endpoints have been undertaken and serve as the impetus for study. Standardized telephone interviews were conducted with 2,445 female members of the New York State Angler Cohort (82% response) to update reproductive profiles and to ascertain specific information on time-to-pregnancy (TTP). The study sample includes women with a known TTP and paternal fish consumption data (n = 785). Conception delay was defined as more than 12 cycles of unprotected intercourse to achieve pregnancy. Paternal fish consumption was assessed by three measures: frequency of Lake Ontario sport fish meals in 1991, numbers of years eating fish, and estimated PCB exposure from fish consumption. Adjusted ORs for number of fish meals, based on logistic regression, ranged from 0.69 to 0.80; from 0.61 to .82 for number of years eating fish; and from 0.44 to 1.14 for quartiles of estimated PCB exposure from fish consumption. All confidence intervals included one. These findings suggest that, based on paternal self-reports, Lake Ontario fish consumption does not increase the risk of conception delay.

  8. PPO.46 Risk of Miscarriage associated with Maternal and Paternal Smoking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meaney, S.; Corcoran, P.; Lutomski, J.E.; Spillane, N.; O'Donoghue, K.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Maternal smoking has been associated with increased risk of miscarriage. However little is known about the influence of paternal smoking. The study aimed to examine maternal and paternal smoking as risk factors for miscarriage. STUDY DESIGN: A cohort study was conducted in a large,

  9. Effects of increased paternal age on sperm quality, reproductive outcome and associated epigenetic risks to offspring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Rakesh; Agarwal, Ashok; Rohra, Vikram K; Assidi, Mourad; Abu-Elmagd, Muhammad; Turki, Rola F

    2015-04-19

    Over the last decade, there has been a significant increase in average paternal age when the first child is conceived, either due to increased life expectancy, widespread use of contraception, late marriages and other factors. While the effect of maternal ageing on fertilization and reproduction is well known and several studies have shown that women over 35 years have a higher risk of infertility, pregnancy complications, spontaneous abortion, congenital anomalies, and perinatal complications. The effect of paternal age on semen quality and reproductive function is controversial for several reasons. First, there is no universal definition for advanced paternal ageing. Secondly, the literature is full of studies with conflicting results, especially for the most common parameters tested. Advancing paternal age also has been associated with increased risk of genetic disease. Our exhaustive literature review has demonstrated negative effects on sperm quality and testicular functions with increasing paternal age. Epigenetics changes, DNA mutations along with chromosomal aneuploidies have been associated with increasing paternal age. In addition to increased risk of male infertility, paternal age has also been demonstrated to impact reproductive and fertility outcomes including a decrease in IVF/ICSI success rate and increasing rate of preterm birth. Increasing paternal age has shown to increase the incidence of different types of disorders like autism, schizophrenia, bipolar disorders, and childhood leukemia in the progeny. It is thereby essential to educate the infertile couples on the disturbing links between increased paternal age and rising disorders in their offspring, to better counsel them during their reproductive years.

  10. Risk for gastroschisis in primigravidity, length of sexual cohabitation, and change in paternity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rittler, Monica; Castilla, Eduardo E; Chambers, Christina; Lopez-Camelo, Jorge S

    2007-06-01

    Maternal epidemiologic similarities between gastroschisis and preeclampsia have led to the objective of evaluating the risk for gastroschisis related to primigravidity, change in paternity, and length of cohabitation, considered as risk factors for preeclampsia. The subjects were 288 newborns with isolated gastroschisis and 576 normal controls, matched by maternal age. They were ascertained in the Estudio Colaborativo Latino Americano de Malformaciones Congenitas hospital network of 10 South American countries between 1982 and 2005. Epidemiologic variables were compared among controls, between primigravidas and multigravidas, between multigravidas who had and had not changed partners, and between mothers with short and long cohabitation times with their partners. Risks associated with primigravidity, short cohabitation time, and changing paternity, as well as their combinations, were calculated. An eventual interaction between maternal age and the three risk factors was assessed. Only a short cohabitation time showed a significant OR for gastroschisis (OR = 2.36, 95% CI: 1.52-3.66, p < .001), whereas ORs were not significant for primigravidity (OR = 1.40, 95% CI: 0.84-2.35, p = .192) nor for changing paternity (OR = 1.20, 95% CI: 0.49-3.10, p = .752). The risk was highest for multigravidas who had changed partners (OR = 8.71, 95% CI: 2.93-21.12, p < .001), followed by multigravidas who had not changed partners (OR = 3.99, 95% CI: 1.07-15.43, p = .049), and by primigravidas (OR = 3.02, 95% CI: 1.58-5.76, p = .001), all having cohabitated for a short time. Maternal age did not modify these risks. Three groups at risk for a child with gastroschisis were identified, all having in common a short cohabitation time. Antigenic or "modern" lifestyle-related factors might be involved in the origin of gastroschisis.

  11. Paternal involvement and support and risk of preterm birth: findings from the Boston birth cohort.

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    Surkan, Pamela J; Dong, Liming; Ji, Yuelong; Hong, Xiumei; Ji, Hongkai; Kimmel, Mary; Tang, Wan-Yee; Wang, Xiaobin

    2017-11-16

    To investigate to what extent paternal involvement and support during pregnancy were associated with preterm (PTB) and small-for-gestational age (SGA) births. Using data from the Boston Birth Cohort (n = 7047), multiple logistic regression models were performed to estimate the log odds of either PTB or SGA birth, with paternal involvement, paternal social support, and family and friend social support variables as the primary independent variables. About 10% of participating mothers reported their husbands not being involved or supportive during their pregnancies. Lack of paternal involvement was associated with 21% higher risk of PTB (OR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.01-1.45). Similarly, lack of paternal support was borderline associated with PTB (OR = 1.13, 95% CI: 0.94-1.35). Also marginally significant, lack of paternal involvement (OR = 1.18, 95% CI: 0.95-1.47) and father's support (OR = 1.19, 95% CI: 0.96-1.48) were associated with higher odds of SGA birth. No associations were found between familial and friend support during pregnancy and PTB or SGA. Among predominantly low-income African Americans, lack of paternal involvement and lack of paternal support during pregnancy were associated with an increased risk of PTB, and suggestive of SGA birth. These findings, if confirmed in future research, underscore the important role a father can play in reducing PTB and/or SGA.

  12. Personal and couple level risk factors: Maternal and paternal parent-child aggression risk.

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    Tucker, Meagan C; Rodriguez, Christina M; Baker, Levi R

    2017-07-01

    Previous literature examining parent-child aggression (PCA) risk has relied heavily upon mothers, limiting our understanding of paternal risk factors. Moreover, the extent to which factors in the couple relationship work in tandem with personal vulnerabilities to impact PCA risk is unclear. The current study examined whether personal stress and distress predicted PCA risk (child abuse potential, over-reactive discipline style, harsh discipline practices) for fathers as well as mothers and whether couple functioning mediated versus moderated the relation between personal stress and PCA risk in a sample of 81 couples. Additionally, the potential for risk factors in one partner to cross over and affect their partner's PCA risk was considered. Findings indicated higher personal stress predicted elevated maternal and paternal PCA risk. Better couple functioning did not moderate this relationship but partially mediated stress and PCA risk for both mothers and fathers. In addition, maternal stress evidenced a cross-over effect, wherein mothers' personal stress linked to fathers' couple functioning. Findings support the role of stress and couple functioning in maternal and paternal PCA risk, including potential cross-over effects that warrant further inquiry. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Association of missing paternal demographics on infant birth certificates with perinatal risk factors for childhood obesity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erika R. Cheng

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The role of fathers in the development of obesity in their offspring remains poorly understood. We evaluated associations of missing paternal demographic information on birth certificates with perinatal risk factors for childhood obesity. Methods Data were from the Linked CENTURY Study, a database linking birth certificate and well-child visit data for 200,258 Massachusetts children from 1980–2008. We categorized participants based on the availability of paternal age, education, or race/ethnicity and maternal marital status on the birth certificate: (1 pregnancies missing paternal data; (2 pregnancies involving unmarried women with paternal data; and (3 pregnancies involving married women with paternal data. Using linear and logistic regression, we compared differences in smoking during pregnancy, gestational diabetes, birthweight, breastfeeding initiation, and ever recording a weight for length (WFL ≥ the 95th percentile or crossing upwards ≥2 WFL percentiles between 0–24 months among the study groups. Results 11,989 (6.0 % birth certificates were missing paternal data; 31,323 (15.6 % mothers were unmarried. In adjusted analyses, missing paternal data was associated with lower birthweight (β -0.07 kg; 95 % CI: −0.08, −0.05, smoking during pregnancy (AOR 4.40; 95 % CI: 3.97, 4.87, non-initiation of breastfeeding (AOR 0.39; 95 % CI: 0.36, 0.42, and with ever having a WFL ≥ 95th percentile (AOR 1.10; 95 % CI: 1.01, 1.20. Similar associations were noted for pregnancies involving unmarried women with paternal data, but differences were less pronounced. Conclusions Missing paternal data on the birth certificate is associated with perinatal risk factors for childhood obesity. Efforts to understand and reduce obesity risk factors in early life may need to consider paternal factors.

  14. Association of missing paternal demographics on infant birth certificates with perinatal risk factors for childhood obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Erika R; Hawkins, Summer Sherburne; Rifas-Shiman, Sheryl L; Gillman, Matthew W; Taveras, Elsie M

    2016-07-14

    The role of fathers in the development of obesity in their offspring remains poorly understood. We evaluated associations of missing paternal demographic information on birth certificates with perinatal risk factors for childhood obesity. Data were from the Linked CENTURY Study, a database linking birth certificate and well-child visit data for 200,258 Massachusetts children from 1980-2008. We categorized participants based on the availability of paternal age, education, or race/ethnicity and maternal marital status on the birth certificate: (1) pregnancies missing paternal data; (2) pregnancies involving unmarried women with paternal data; and (3) pregnancies involving married women with paternal data. Using linear and logistic regression, we compared differences in smoking during pregnancy, gestational diabetes, birthweight, breastfeeding initiation, and ever recording a weight for length (WFL) ≥ the 95th percentile or crossing upwards ≥2 WFL percentiles between 0-24 months among the study groups. 11,989 (6.0 %) birth certificates were missing paternal data; 31,323 (15.6 %) mothers were unmarried. In adjusted analyses, missing paternal data was associated with lower birthweight (β -0.07 kg; 95 % CI: -0.08, -0.05), smoking during pregnancy (AOR 4.40; 95 % CI: 3.97, 4.87), non-initiation of breastfeeding (AOR 0.39; 95 % CI: 0.36, 0.42), and with ever having a WFL ≥ 95th percentile (AOR 1.10; 95 % CI: 1.01, 1.20). Similar associations were noted for pregnancies involving unmarried women with paternal data, but differences were less pronounced. Missing paternal data on the birth certificate is associated with perinatal risk factors for childhood obesity. Efforts to understand and reduce obesity risk factors in early life may need to consider paternal factors.

  15. Investigating paternal preconception risk factors for adverse pregnancy outcomes in a population of internet users

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Agricola, Eleonora; Gesualdo, Francesco; Carloni, Emanuela; D'Ambrosio, Angelo; Russo, Luisa; Campagna, Ilaria; Pandolfi, Elisabetta; Tozzi, Alberto E

    2016-01-01

    Paternal preconception risk factors such as smoking, exposure to environmental substances, medication use, overweight and advanced age correlate with the occurrence of malformations and birth defects in the offspring...

  16. Paternal occupational lead exposure and offspring risks for schizophrenia.

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    Sallmén, Markku; Suvisaari, Jaana; Lindbohm, Marja-Liisa; Malaspina, Dolores; Opler, Mark G

    2016-10-01

    This register-based cohort study investigated whether paternal occupational exposure to inorganic lead was related to offspring risk for schizophrenia spectrum disorder (SSD). Exposed men (n=11,863) were identified from blood lead measurements taken at the Finnish Institute of Occupational Health in 1973-1983. Data on mothers and their offspring born from 1972-1984 were obtained from the national Population Information System. Two population comparison offspring for each exposed offspring were matched on date of birth, sex and area (n=23,720). SSD cases were identified from The Finnish Hospital Discharge Register. Hazard ratios of SSD between exposed groups were analyzed using conditional proportional hazards regression, adjusted for parental history of psychoses, parental ages, language of offspring, father's employment, and father's self-employment. After 26-38years of follow up, there were no significant differences in the incidence of schizophrenia, either between the offspring of exposed (188/11,863; 1.6%) and unexposed fathers (347/23,720; 1.5%) or based on blood lead levels (adjusted hazard ratios (aHR): 0.97, CI 0.52-1.83, 1.25, CI 0.85-1.82, 0.90, CI 0.54-1.49, and 1.38, CI 0.65-2.92 for lead categories exposure to lead is not a risk factor for schizophrenia in offspring. However, the majority of exposed fathers had low-level exposure, and we cannot exclude the possibility of an effect for higher exposures to lead. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. The Prevalence and Risk Factors of Paternal Depression from the Antenatal to the Postpartum Period and the Relationships between Antenatal and Postpartum Depression among Fathers in Hong Kong

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. W. Koh

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Despite the fact that maternal perinatal mental health problems have been extensively studied and addressed to be a significant health problem, the literature on paternal perinatal mental health problems is relatively scarce. The present study aims at determining the prevalence of paternal perinatal depression and identifying the risk factors and the relationship between antenatal and postpartum depression. Methodology. 622 expectant fathers were recruited from regional maternal clinics. The expectant fathers were assessed using standardized and validated psychological instruments on 3 time points including early pregnancy, late pregnancy, and six weeks postpartum. Results. Results showed that a significant proportion of expectant fathers manifested depressive symptoms during the perinatal period. Paternal antenatal depression could significantly predict higher level of paternal postpartum depression. Psychosocial risk factors were consistently associated with paternal depression in different time points. Conclusions. The present study points to the need for greater research and clinical attention to paternal depression given that it is a highly prevalent problem and could be detrimental to their spouse and children development. The present findings contribute to theoretical basis of the prevalence and risk factors of paternal perinatal depression and have implications of the design of effective identification, prevention, and interventions of these clinical problems.

  18. Risk of Adverse Pregnancy Outcome After Paternal Exposure to Methotrexate Within 90 Days Before Pregnancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eck, Lasse Karlsen; Jensen, Thomas Bo; Mastrogiannis, Dimitrios

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To study the association between paternal exposure to methotrexate within the 90-day period before pregnancy and congenital malformations and stillbirth in the offspring. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide register study. Our cohort consisted of all live births in Denmark between 1997...... group and no increased risk of preterm birth (adjusted OR 1.31, 95% CI 0.66-2.59) among the children from exposed fathers. CONCLUSION: We found no association between paternal exposure to methotrexate within 90 days before pregnancy and congenital malformations, stillbirths, or preterm birth. Available...... data suggest that prepregnancy paternal methotrexate exposure should not be of major concern. Multinational recommendations should be changed accordingly....

  19. Paternal sperm DNA methylation associated with early signs of autism risk in an autism-enriched cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feinberg, Jason I; Bakulski, Kelly M; Jaffe, Andrew E; Tryggvadottir, Rakel; Brown, Shannon C; Goldman, Lynn R; Croen, Lisa A; Hertz-Picciotto, Irva; Newschaffer, Craig J; Fallin, M Daniele; Feinberg, Andrew P

    2015-08-01

    Epigenetic mechanisms such as altered DNA methylation have been suggested to play a role in autism, beginning with the classical association of Prader-Willi syndrome, an imprinting disorder, with autistic features. Here we tested for the relationship of paternal sperm DNA methylation with autism risk in offspring, examining an enriched-risk cohort of fathers of autistic children. We examined genome-wide DNA methylation (DNAm) in paternal semen biosamples obtained from an autism spectrum disorder (ASD) enriched-risk pregnancy cohort, the Early Autism Risk Longitudinal Investigation (EARLI) cohort, to estimate associations between sperm DNAm and prospective ASD development, using a 12-month ASD symptoms assessment, the Autism Observation Scale for Infants (AOSI). We analysed methylation data from 44 sperm samples run on the CHARM 3.0 array, which contains over 4 million probes (over 7 million CpG sites), including 30 samples also run on the Illumina Infinium HumanMethylation450 (450K) BeadChip platform (∼485 000 CpG sites). We also examined associated regions in an independent sample of post-mortem human brain ASD and control samples for which Illumina 450K DNA methylation data were available. Using region-based statistical approaches, we identified 193 differentially methylated regions (DMRs) in paternal sperm with a family-wise empirical P-value [family-wise error rate (FWER)] syndrome gene cluster. These results were consistent among the 75 probes on the Illumina 450K array that cover AOSI-associated DMRs from CHARM. Further, 18 of 75 (24%) 450K array probes showed consistent differences in the cerebellums of autistic individuals compared with controls. These data suggest that epigenetic differences in paternal sperm may contribute to autism risk in offspring, and provide evidence that directionally consistent, potentially related epigenetic mechanisms may be operating in the cerebellum of individuals with autism. © The Author 2015; all rights reserved

  20. Cumulative risks of paternal and maternal incarceration in Denmark and the United States

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    Christopher Wildeman

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: No research has estimated the cumulative risk of paternal or maternal incarceration in any country other than the U.S., so it remains unclear how much more likely U.S. children are to be exposed to parental incarceration than children living in other countries. Objective: To estimate the cumulative risks of paternal and maternal incarceration (including even very short jail stays of less than 24 hours by age 14 for the 1990 Danish birth cohort. We then compare these estimates to equivalent estimates for the 1990 U.S. birth cohort. Methods: We use birth cohort life tables and Danish registry data, which provide administrative records on all incarcerations in Denmark, to estimate the cumulative risks of paternal and maternal incarceration. We follow the full 1990 Danish birth cohort (N = 62,982 up to age 14 to see whether each child has ever experienced different lengths of paternal and maternal incarceration. Results: We estimate that 1.54Š of Danish children experienced paternal imprisonment and that 8.78Š of Danish children experienced any paternal incarceration (including jail stays less than 24 hours, indicating that U.S. children are almost as likely to have their fathers sent to prison (which usually results from a sentence of at least one year in the U.S. as Danish children are to have their fathers spend less than one day in jail. Results for maternal imprisonment are similar. Conclusions: U.S. children are far more likely to be exposed to parental incarceration than Danish children, suggesting that imprisonment contributes not only to inequality among children within the U.S., but also to inequality between children in the U.S. and children in other developed democracies.

  1. Mate guarding in the Seychelles warbler is energetically costly and adjusted to paternity risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Komdeur, Jan

    2001-01-01

    Males may increase their fitness through extra-pair copulations (copulations outside the pair bond) that result in extra-pair fertilizations, but also risk lost paternity when they leave their own mate unguarded. The fitness costs of cuckoldry for Seychelles warblers (Acrocephalus sechellensis) are

  2. Investigating paternal preconception risk factors for adverse pregnancy outcomes in a population of internet users

    OpenAIRE

    Agricola, Eleonora; Gesualdo, Francesco; Carloni, Emanuela; D?Ambrosio, Angelo; Russo, Luisa; Campagna, Ilaria; Pandolfi, Elisabetta; Tozzi, Alberto E.

    2016-01-01

    Background Paternal preconception risk factors such as smoking, exposure to environmental substances, medication use, overweight and advanced age correlate with the occurrence of malformations and birth defects in the offspring. Nonetheless, the prevalence of risk factors for adverse pregnancy outcomes in the male population has been scarcely investigated and no report on preconception interventions targeting prospective fathers is available. We conducted a web-based survey to measure the pre...

  3. Investigating paternal preconception risk factors for adverse pregnancy outcomes in a population of internet users.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agricola, Eleonora; Gesualdo, Francesco; Carloni, Emanuela; D'Ambrosio, Angelo; Russo, Luisa; Campagna, Ilaria; Pandolfi, Elisabetta; Tozzi, Alberto E

    2016-04-14

    Paternal preconception risk factors such as smoking, exposure to environmental substances, medication use, overweight and advanced age correlate with the occurrence of malformations and birth defects in the offspring. Nonetheless, the prevalence of risk factors for adverse pregnancy outcomes in the male population has been scarcely investigated and no report on preconception interventions targeting prospective fathers is available. We conducted a web-based survey to measure the prevalence of paternal preconception risk factors for adverse pregnancy outcomes in an Italian population of Internet users. Prospective or expectant fathers were enrolled during a four-week period through two of the main Italian web-sites dedicated to preconception, pregnancy, childhood and family care. Participants filled in a web questionnaire regarding preconception risk factors for adverse pregnancy outcomes. Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the predictors of paternal preconception risk factors. We enrolled 131 prospective and 205 expectant fathers. More than half of the total participants used medications during the preconception period, 35% were smokers and 8% were obese. Exposure to environmental substances was declared by almost 20% of the participants, with the group including pesticides/herbicides/professional paints being the most prevalent. More than a half of the study sample included men aged over 35 years. According to the multivariate analysis, smoking and exposure to environmental toxics were less frequent among individuals with a university degree (respectively: OR = 0.52; 95% CI 0.32-0.84; OR = 0.52; 95% CI 0.29-0.93). Paternal obesity and medication use in the preconception period were not associated with any of the independent variables. The prevalence of preconception risk factors among male population should not be neglected when planning preconception interventions, confirming that preconception health must be focused on the couple, rather

  4. The Influence of Paternal Separation, Paternal History of Alcohol Use Disorder Risk, and Early Substance Use on Offspring Educational Attainment by Young Adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadler, Brooke E; Grant, Julia D; Duncan, Alexis E; Sartor, Carolyn E; Waldron, Mary; Heath, Andrew C; Bucholz, Kathleen K

    2017-05-01

    This study aimed to determine the associations among paternal alcohol problems, separation, and educational attainment in European American and African American offspring and whether offspring early alcohol/tobacco/marijuana use influenced these associations. Families with offspring ages 13-19 years at intake were selected from state birth records and screened by telephone to determine high-risk or low-risk status (with/without paternal heavy drinking). Families of men with two or more driving-under-the-influence offenses were added as a very-high-risk group. Data from 340 African American and 288 European American offspring who were not enrolled in school at their last interview were analyzed. Educational attainment was modeled as less than high school, high school only (reference category), and some college or higher. Separation was defined as offspring report of not having lived continuously in the same household with their biological father from birth to age 14. Analyses were stratified by race. In European Americans, neither family risk status nor early alcohol/tobacco/marijuana use was associated with educational outcomes. However, paternal separation significantly elevated the likelihood of not completing high school in all models (relative risk ratios [RRRs] = 6.0-8.1, p education in an adjusted model (RRR = 0.4, p education in African American offspring only, suggesting that research with ethnically diverse samples yields important differences when examining outcomes of both separation and substance use on offspring education.

  5. To eat or not to eat : egg-based assessment of paternity triggers fine-tuned decisions about filial cannibalism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mehlis, Marion; Bakker, Theo C. M.; Engqvist, Leif; Frommen, Joachim G.

    2010-01-01

    Filial cannibalism occurs in many animal species ranging from insects to mammals, and is especially well described in teleost fishes. Numerous causes may lead to this behaviour, e. g. certainty of paternity. However, the cues males use to assess their paternity often remain unknown. One possible way

  6. Risk for separation anxiety disorder among girls: paternal absence, socioeconomic disadvantage, and genetic vulnerability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronk, Nikole J; Slutske, Wendy S; Madden, Pamela A F; Bucholz, Kathleen K; Heath, Andrew C

    2004-05-01

    The authors examined genetic and environmental influences, including the contributions of 2 measured aspects of the shared environment of twins (paternal absence, socioeconomic disadvantage) on the development of mother-reported separation anxiety disorder (SAD) history in a sample of 1,887 female twin pairs. Four different symptom categories of SAD were considered. Results revealed that all 4 SAD symptom categories were significantly heritable, whereas the contribution of shared environmental influences to the variation in risk was significant for only 2 of the 4 SAD categories. Paternal absence was found to have an important influence in vulnerability for SAD, whereas the effect of socioeconomic disadvantage was less robust. Evidence for race differences in the etiology of SAD was not found.

  7. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  8. Advanced paternal age is a risk factor for schizophrenia in Iranians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mokri Bahareh

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Since 1958 many, but not all studies have demonstrated that paternal age is a risk factor for schizophrenia. There may be many different explanations for differences between studies, including study design, sample size, collection criteria, heterogeneity and the confounding effects of environmental factors that can for example perturb epigenetic programming and lead to an increase in disease risk. The small number of children in Western families makes risk comparisons between siblings born at different paternal ages difficult. In contrast, more Eastern families have children both at early and later periods of life. In the present study, a cross-sectional population study in an Iranian population was performed to compare frequency of schizophrenia in younger offspring (that is, older paternal age versus older offspring. Methods A total of 220 patients with the diagnosis of schizophrenia (cases from both psychiatric hospitals and private clinics and 220 individuals from other hospital wards (controls, matched for sex and age were recruited for this study. Patients with neurological problem, substance abuse, mental retardation and mood disorder were excluded from both groups. Results Birth rank comparisons revealed that 35% vs 24% of the cases vs the controls were in the third or upper birth rank (P = 0.01. Also, the mean age of fathers at birth in case group (30 ± 6.26 years was significantly more than the control group (26.45 ± 5.64 years; P = 0.0001. The age of 76 fathers at birth in case group was over 32 versus 33 fathers in control group. Individuals whose fathers' age was more than 32 (at birth were at higher risk (2.77 times for schizophrenia versus others (P P = 0.02. Logistic regression analysis suggests that maternal age is less likely to be involved in the higher risk of schizophrenia than advanced parental age. Discussion This study demonstrates a relationship between paternal age and schizophrenia in large

  9. Paternal and maternal transition to parenthood: the risk of postpartum depression and parenting stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Stella Epifanio

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Transition to parenthood represents an important life event increasing vulnerability to psychological disorders. Postpartum depression and parenting distress are the most common psychological disturbances and a growing scientific evidence suggests that both mothers and fathers are involved in this developmental crisis. This paper aims to explore maternal and paternal experience of transition to parenthood in terms of parenting distress and risk of postpartum depression. Seventy-five couples of first-time parents were invited to compile the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale and the Parenting Stress Index-Short Form in the first month of children life. Study sample reported very high levels of parenting distress and a risk of postpartum depression in 20.8% of mothers and 5.7% of fathers. No significant correlation between parenting distress and the risk of postpartum depression emerged, both in mothers than in fathers group while maternal distress levels are related to paternal one. The first month after partum represents a critical phase of parents life and it could be considered a developmental crisis characterized by anxiety, stress and mood alterations that could have important repercussions on the child psycho-physical development.

  10. Comparing maternal and paternal intergenerational transmission of obesity risk in a large population-based sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitaker, Katriina L; Jarvis, Martin J; Beeken, Rebecca J; Boniface, David; Wardle, Jane

    2010-06-01

    Previous research showed childhood obesity to be more strongly associated with maternal weight than with paternal weight. However, confidence in this finding is limited by the lack of objectively measured data from both parents. We quantified the individual and combined effects of maternal and paternal overweight/obesity on obesity risk in children. Data were pooled from the annual Health Surveys for England carried out between 2001 and 2006. Families with obesity [odds ratio (OR): 2.2; 95% CI: 1.3, 3.7; P obese (including severely obese) parents was associated with a higher risk of child obesity (OR: 12.0; 95% CI: 7.2, 20.1; P obese parents was associated with an even higher risk of child obesity (OR: 22.3; 95% CI: 10.3, 48.4; P father-child associations (r = 0.23), even after adjustment for plausible levels (obesity, which is significantly stronger for maternal weight. Parental obesity could be used to target preventive interventions in the preschool years to avoid serious adverse effects on the future health of children.

  11. Effects of paternal age and offspring cognitive ability in early adulthood on the risk of schizophrenia and related disorders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Holger J; Pedersen, Carsten B; Nordentoft, Merete

    2014-01-01

    Advanced paternal age (APA) and intelligence quotient (IQ) are both associated with the risk of schizophrenia spectrum disorder (SSD) in young adult offspring. We hypothesized that the offspring SSD risk gradient associated with paternal age is mediated by offspring IQ. We investigated joint...... the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of SSD. During the follow-up, 528 men developed SSD (incidence rate [IR] 5.2 and 8.6 per 10,000 person-years in the first and second cohorts, respectively). APA was associated with higher risk of SSD (IRR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.10-1.60 per a ten-year increase in paternal age). A higher...... IQ was associated with lower SSD risk (IRR, 0.68; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63-0.74 per one SD increase). The IR of SSD was higher among persons who were draft-exempt for health reasons (APA-related SSD (individuals...

  12. Association of paternal age at birth and the risk of breast cancer in offspring: a case control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoo Keun-Young

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Older paternal age may increase the germ cell mutation rate in the offspring. Maternal age may also mediate in utero exposure to pregnancy hormones in the offspring. To evaluate the association between paternal and maternal age at birth with the risk of breast cancer in female offspring, a case-control study was conducted in Korea. Methods Histologically confirmed breast cancer cases (n = 1,011 and controls (n = 1,011 with no present or previous history of cancer, matched on year of birth and menopausal status, were selected from several teaching hospitals and community in Seoul during 1995–2003. Information on paternal and maternal ages and other factors was collected by interviewed questionnaire. Odds ratio (OR and 95% confidence interval (95% CI were estimated by unconditional logistic regression model adjusting for family history of breast cancer in 1st or 2nd degree relatives, and lifetime estrogen exposure duration. Results The risk of breast cancer significantly increased as the paternal age increased (p for trend = 0.025. The association was stronger after controlling for maternal age; women whose fathers were aged ≥40 years at their birth had 1.6-fold increased risk of breast cancer compared with fathers aged Conclusion These findings suggest that older paternal age increases the risk of breast cancer in their female offspring.

  13. Advanced paternal age and risk of fetal death: a cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nybo Andersen, Anne-Marie; Hansen, Kasper Daniel; Andersen, Per Kragh

    2004-01-01

    A possible detrimental paternal age effect on offspring health due to mutations of paternal origin should be reflected in an association between paternal age and fetal loss. The authors used data from a prospective study of 23,821 pregnant women recruited consecutively to the Danish National Birt...

  14. To eat or not to eat: egg-based assessment of paternity triggers fine-tuned decisions about filial cannibalism

    OpenAIRE

    Mehlis, Marion; Bakker, Theo C.M; Engqvist, Leif; Frommen, Joachim G.

    2010-01-01

    Filial cannibalism occurs in many animal species ranging from insects to mammals, and is especially well described in teleost fishes. Numerous causes may lead to this behaviour, e. g. certainty of paternity. However, the cues males use to assess their paternity often remain unknown. One possible way to differentiate between own and foreign offspring is by using egg cues. Nevertheless, in egg-laying species, evidence for this is still scarce. In this study, male three-spined sticklebacks (Gast...

  15. Maternal and paternal smoking during pregnancy and risk of ADHD symptoms in offspring: testing for intrauterine effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langley, Kate; Heron, Jon; Smith, George Davey; Thapar, Anita

    2012-08-01

    Maternal smoking during pregnancy is associated with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in offspring. It is assumed by many that this association is causal. Others suggest that observed associations are due to unmeasured genetic factors or other confounding factors. The authors compared risks of maternal smoking during pregnancy with those of paternal smoking during pregnancy. With a causal intrauterine effect, no independent association should be observed between paternal smoking and offspring ADHD. If the association is due to confounding factors, risks of offspring ADHD should be of similar magnitudes regardless of which parent smokes. This hypothesis was tested in 8,324 children from a well-characterized United Kingdom prospective cohort study, the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (data from 1991-2000). Associations between offspring ADHD and maternal and paternal smoking during pregnancy were compared using regression analyses. Offspring ADHD symptoms were associated with exposure to both maternal and paternal smoking during pregnancy (mothers: β = 0.25, 95% confidence interval: 0.18, 0.32; fathers: β = 0.21, 95% confidence interval: 0.15, 0.27). When paternal smoking was examined in the absence of maternal smoking, associations remained and did not appear to be due to passive smoking exposure in utero. These findings suggest that associations between maternal smoking during pregnancy and child ADHD may be due to genetic or household-level confounding rather than to causal intrauterine effects.

  16. Paternal Occupational Exposure to Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals as a Risk Factor for Leukaemia in Children: A Case-Control Study from the North of England

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark S. Pearce

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Occupations with exposures to a variety of chemicals, including those thought to be potential endocrine disruptors, have been associated with an increased risk of leukaemia in offspring. We investigated whether an association exists between paternal occupations at birth involving such exposures and risk of leukaemia in offspring. Cases (n=958 were matched, on sex and year of birth, to controls from two independent sources, one other cancers, one cancer-free live births. Paternal occupations at birth were classified, using an occupational exposure matrix, as having “very unlikely,” “possible,” or “likely” exposure to six groups of potential endocrine-disrupting chemicals. There was a significantly increased risk of acute nonlymphocytic leukaemia (ANLL for polychlorinated organic compounds (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.08–3.54 only in comparison with cancer-free controls, and for phthalates (OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.00–2.61 only with registry controls. A number of other, including inverse, associations were seen, but limited to one control group only. No associations were seen with likely paternal exposure to heavy metals. The associations identified in this study require further investigation, with better exposure and potential confounding (for example maternal variables information, to evaluate the likelihood of true associations to assess whether they are real or due to chance.

  17. To eat or not to eat: egg-based assessment of paternity triggers fine-tuned decisions about filial cannibalism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehlis, Marion; Bakker, Theo C M; Engqvist, Leif; Frommen, Joachim G

    2010-09-07

    Filial cannibalism occurs in many animal species ranging from insects to mammals, and is especially well described in teleost fishes. Numerous causes may lead to this behaviour, e.g. certainty of paternity. However, the cues males use to assess their paternity often remain unknown. One possible way to differentiate between own and foreign offspring is by using egg cues. Nevertheless, in egg-laying species, evidence for this is still scarce. In this study, male three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus), a fish with paternal care in which sneaking as well as filial cannibalism is common, were allowed to care for manipulated nests that contained different percentages of own fertilized eggs. After 7 days, embryo survival was determined. Furthermore, brood-caring as well as aggressive behaviour was measured daily. Clutches containing a higher proportion of foreign eggs were more likely to be completely cannibalized than clutches containing a lower proportion of foreign eggs, particularly when the clutch was laid early in the breeding season. However, the behavioural observations revealed no influence of paternity. The results show that paternity triggers filial cannibalism in sticklebacks and that males are able to evaluate their paternity using egg cues alone.

  18. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  19. Fetal exposure to maternal and paternal smoking and the risks of wheezing in preschool children: the Generation R Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duijts, Liesbeth; Jaddoe, Vincent W V; van der Valk, Ralf J P; Henderson, John A; Hofman, Albert; Raat, Hein; Steegers, Eric A P; Moll, Henriëtte A; de Jongste, Johan C

    2012-04-01

    Previous studies have suggested that fetal smoke exposure is associated with increased risks of wheezing during childhood. The underlying pathways are unknown. We examined the associations of parental smoking during pregnancy with wheezing in preschool children and whether these associations are explained by postnatal smoke exposure or small for gestational age at birth. This study was embedded in a population-based prospective cohort study. Parental smoking was prospectively assessed by questionnaires. Wheezing was reported at 1 to 4 years. Small for gestational age at birth was available from registries. The analyses were based on 4,574 subjects. Maternal smoking during the first trimester only was not associated with wheezing. Continued maternal smoking in pregnancy was associated with the risk of wheezing at 1 to 4 years (P for trends smoking was not consistently associated with the risks of wheezing. The associations of continued maternal smoking during pregnancy with wheezing symptoms were independent of postnatal smoke exposure or small for gestational age at birth. Fetal exposure to continued maternal smoking is associated with increased risks of wheezing in preschool children. Further research is needed to explore the effects of paternal smoking. Diminishing maternal smoking before conception or in early pregnancy is likely to have the greatest impact on reducing childhood wheezing.

  20. Paternity and paternal effort in the pumpkinseed sunfish

    OpenAIRE

    Oscar Rios-Cardenas; Webster, Michael S.

    2005-01-01

    Theoretical models suggest that males should adjust their parental effort according to paternity when parental effort is costly, paternity varies among clutches, and males have a cue to assess paternity. To date, nearly all tests of this theory have been conducted using birds as model organisms. In this study we examined these three factors and the relationship between paternity and male parental care in a fish system. In the pumpkinseed sunfish (Lepomis gibbosus), parental care is provided e...

  1. Assessing multiple paternity in three commercially exploited shark species: Mustelus mustelus, Carcharhinus obscurus and Sphyrna lewini.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossouw, C; Wintner, S P; Bester-Van Der Merwe, A E

    2016-08-01

    In this study, multiple paternity (MP) was investigated in three commercially important shark species, common smoothhound Mustelus mustelus, dusky shark Carcharhinus obscurus and scalloped hammerhead Sphyrna lewini occurring in southern Africa. Reduced marker panels of between five and six microsatellite loci were constructed for each species and used to genotype and assess the presence of MP in a total of 60 M. mustelus individuals from six litters, 90 C. obscurus individuals from 14 litters and 54 S. lewini individuals from 13 litters. Analysis in GERUD and COLONY revealed the presence of MP in all three species. Multiple paternities were observed in 67, 35 and 46% of the litters of M. mustelus, C. obscurus and S. lewini, with corresponding average sire size of 1·6, 1·4 and 2·0, respectively. The variation in the rate of MP among the three species is in accordance with previous studies whilst the comparatively high frequency of MP observed for M. mustelus, matches what has previously been reported for shark species demonstrating aggregation behaviour. © 2016 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  2. Maternal, not paternal PTSD, is related to increased risk for PTSD in offspring of Holocaust survivors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yehuda, Rachel; Bell, Amanda; Bierer, Linda M.; Schmeidler, James

    2008-01-01

    Background A significant association between parental PTSD and the occurrence of PTSD in offspring has been noted, consistent with the idea that risk for PTSD is transmitted from parent to child. Two recent reports linking maternal PTSD and low cortisol in offspring prompted us to examine the relative contributions of maternal vs. paternal PTSD in the prediction of PTSD and other psychiatric diagnoses. Methods 117 men and 167 women, recruited from the community, were evaluated using a comprehensive psychiatric battery designed to identify traumatic life experiences and lifetime psychiatric diagnoses. 211 of the subjects were the adult offspring of Holocaust survivors and 73 were demographically comparable Jewish controls. Participants were further subdivided based on whether their mother, father, neither, or both parents met the diagnostic criteria for lifetime PTSD. Results A higher prevalence of lifetime PTSD, mood, anxiety disorders, and to a lesser extent, substance abuse disorders, was observed in offspring of Holocaust than controls. The presence of maternal PTSD was specifically associated with PTSD in adult offspring. However, the other diagnoses did not show specific effects associated with maternal PTSD. Conclusion The tendency for maternal PTSD to make a greater contribution to PTSD risk suggests that classic genetic mechanisms are not the sole model of transmission, and pave way for the speculation that epigenetic factors may be involved. In contrast, PTSD in any parent contributes to risk for depression, and parental traumatization is associated with increased anxiety disorders in offspring. PMID:18281061

  3. Infant Mortality Risk and Paternity Certainty Are Associated with Postnatal Maternal Behavior toward Adult Male Mountain Gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stacy Rosenbaum

    Full Text Available Sexually selected infanticide is an important source of infant mortality in many mammalian species. In species with long-term male-female associations, females may benefit from male protection against infanticidal outsiders. We tested whether mountain gorilla (Gorilla beringei beringei mothers in single and multi-male groups monitored by the Dian Fossey Gorilla Fund's Karisoke Research Center actively facilitated interactions between their infants and a potentially protective male. We also evaluated the criteria mothers in multi-male groups used to choose a preferred male social partner. In single male groups, where infanticide risk and paternity certainty are high, females with infants <1 year old spent more time near and affiliated more with males than females without young infants. In multi-male groups, where infanticide rates and paternity certainty are lower, mothers with new infants exhibited few behavioral changes toward males. The sole notable change was that females with young infants proportionally increased their time near males they previously spent little time near when compared to males they had previously preferred, perhaps to encourage paternity uncertainty and deter aggression. Rank was a much better predictor of females' social partner choice than paternity. Older infants (2-3 years in multi-male groups mirrored their mothers' preferences for individual male social partners; 89% spent the most time in close proximity to the male their mother had spent the most time near when they were <1 year old. Observed discrepancies between female behavior in single and multi-male groups likely reflect different levels of postpartum intersexual conflict; in groups where paternity certainty and infanticide risk are both high, male-female interests align and females behave accordingly. This highlights the importance of considering individual and group-level variation when evaluating intersexual conflict across the reproductive cycle.

  4. Infant Mortality Risk and Paternity Certainty Are Associated with Postnatal Maternal Behavior toward Adult Male Mountain Gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenbaum, Stacy; Hirwa, Jean Paul; Silk, Joan B.; Vigilant, Linda; Stoinski, Tara S.

    2016-01-01

    Sexually selected infanticide is an important source of infant mortality in many mammalian species. In species with long-term male-female associations, females may benefit from male protection against infanticidal outsiders. We tested whether mountain gorilla (Gorilla beringei beringei) mothers in single and multi-male groups monitored by the Dian Fossey Gorilla Fund’s Karisoke Research Center actively facilitated interactions between their infants and a potentially protective male. We also evaluated the criteria mothers in multi-male groups used to choose a preferred male social partner. In single male groups, where infanticide risk and paternity certainty are high, females with infants <1 year old spent more time near and affiliated more with males than females without young infants. In multi-male groups, where infanticide rates and paternity certainty are lower, mothers with new infants exhibited few behavioral changes toward males. The sole notable change was that females with young infants proportionally increased their time near males they previously spent little time near when compared to males they had previously preferred, perhaps to encourage paternity uncertainty and deter aggression. Rank was a much better predictor of females’ social partner choice than paternity. Older infants (2–3 years) in multi-male groups mirrored their mothers’ preferences for individual male social partners; 89% spent the most time in close proximity to the male their mother had spent the most time near when they were <1 year old. Observed discrepancies between female behavior in single and multi-male groups likely reflect different levels of postpartum intersexual conflict; in groups where paternity certainty and infanticide risk are both high, male-female interests align and females behave accordingly. This highlights the importance of considering individual and group-level variation when evaluating intersexual conflict across the reproductive cycle. PMID:26863300

  5. Epistemic Paternalism

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    jalal pikani; faramarz tagilu

    2013-01-01

    .... Finally, the view is defend that the epistemic paternalism because of its valuable epistemic consequences will be legitimate if it construct on some certain criterions without postulating epistemic...

  6. Paternal intake of folate and vitamins B6 and B12 before conception and risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Helen D; Miller, Margaret; Greenop, Kathryn R; Bower, Carol; Attia, John; Marshall, Glenn M; Armstrong, Bruce K; Milne, Elizabeth

    2014-12-01

    We investigated whether paternal dietary intake of folate before conception is associated with the risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) in a nationwide case-control study. Data on dietary folate intake during the 6 months before the child's conception were collected from 285 case fathers and 595 control fathers using a dietary questionnaire. Nutrient intake was quantified using a customized computer software package based on Australian food composition databases. Data on folate intake were analyzed using unconditional logistic regression, adjusting for study-matching variables, total energy, and potentially confounding variables. In a subset of 229 cases and 420 controls, data on vitamin B6 and vitamin B12 intake were also analyzed. No consistent associations were seen with paternal dietary intake of folate or vitamin B6. Higher levels of paternal dietary vitamin B12 were appeared to be associated with an increased risk of childhood ALL, with those in the highest tertile of consumption having an OR of 1.51 (0.97, 2.36). The use of supplements containing folate and vitamins B6 or B12 was rare. We did not find any biologically plausible evidence that paternal nutrition in the period leading up to conception was associated with childhood ALL. Our finding for vitamin B12 may be a chance finding, given the number of analyses performed, or be attributable to participation bias because parents with a tertiary education had the lowest level of B12 intake and tertiary education was more common among control than case parents.

  7. Paternalism and Antipaternalism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauro Cardoso Simões

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1677-2954.2011v10n1p165This paper aims to examine the relation between paternalism and antipaternalism. The original intention is disable the arguments seeking to justify acceptance on the part of Mill of moral and legal paternalism. The work will also investigate the concern milleans with the concepts of autonomy and self-development, positioning itself for a reading of Mill as a thinker who advocates a weak version of paternalism. This research suggests, moreover, the communication with the interpreters of contemporary Mill, which will assess the impact of their ideas on the current dialogue on the liberty and paternalism.

  8. Advanced Paternal Age and Risk of Musculoskeletal Congenital Anomalies in Offspring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urhøj, Stine Kjær; Mortensen, Laust Hvas; Andersen, Anne-Marie Nybo

    2015-01-01

    covering cohort of children. STUDY DESIGN: A register-based prospective study of 1,605,885 children born in Denmark, 1978–2004, using information from record-linked healthand administrative registers. The association between paternal age and overall musculoskeletal CAs, limb anomalies,craniosynostosis...

  9. Paternal age and reproduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sartorius, Gideon A; Nieschlag, Eberhard

    2010-01-01

    Due to various sociological factors, couples in developed countries are increasingly delaying childbearing. Besides ethical, economical and sociological issues, this trend presents us with several complex problems in reproduction. Although it is well-known that maternal age has a negative effect on fertility and increases the risk of adverse outcome during pregnancy and in offspring, the paternal influence on these outcomes is less well researched and not well-known. We performed a systematic search of PubMed, and retrieved original articles and review articles to update our previous survey in this journal. This review highlights the link between male age and genetic abnormalities in the germ line and summarizes the knowledge about the effects of paternal age on reproductive function and outcome. Increasing paternal age can be associated with decreasing androgen levels, decreased sexual activity, alterations of testicular morphology and a deterioration of semen quality (volume, motility, morphology). Increased paternal age has an influence on DNA integrity of sperm, increases telomere length in spermatozoa and is suggested to have epigenetic effects. These changes may, at least in part, be responsible for the association of paternal age over 40 years with reduced fertility, an increase in pregnancy-associated complications and adverse outcome in the offspring. Although higher maternal age can be an indication for intensive prenatal diagnosis, including invasive diagnostics, consideration of the available evidence suggests that paternal age itself, however, provides no rationale for invasive procedures.

  10. Paternal exposure to methotrexate and pregnancy outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beghin, Delphine; Cournot, Marie-Pierre; Vauzelle, Catherine; Elefant, Elisabeth

    2011-04-01

    To assess the risk of major malformation in the case of paternal exposure to methotrexate (MTX) at the time of conception. Using prospective data of our Teratology Information Service, we analyzed outcomes of paternal MTX exposure at the time of conception or up to 3 months before conception. We report on the outcomes of 42 pregnancies involving 40 men treated with MTX at the time of conception. Twenty-three men were treated for an inflammatory disease (54.8%), 9 for psoriasis (21.4%), and 8 for a malignant disease (19.0%). Weekly dosages varied between 7.5 mg and 30 mg. The pregnancies resulted in 36 live births, 3 spontaneous abortions, and 3 voluntary abortions. No congenital malformation was observed at birth. Based on our results and case reports in literature, paternal MTX exposure at the time of conception does not seem to raise any major concern for offspring.

  11. From sperm to offspring: Assessing the heritable genetic consequences of paternal smoking and potential public health impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beal, Marc A; Yauk, Carole L; Marchetti, Francesco

    2017-07-01

    Individuals who smoke generally do so with the knowledge of potential consequences to their own health. What is rarely considered are the effects of smoking on their future children. The objective of this work was to review the scientific literature on the effects of paternal smoking on sperm and assess the consequences to offspring. A literature search identified over 200 studies with relevant data in humans and animal models. The available data were reviewed to assess the weight of evidence that tobacco smoke is a human germ cell mutagen and estimate effect sizes. These results were used to model the potential increase in genetic disease burden in offspring caused by paternal smoking, with specific focus on aneuploid syndromes and intellectual disability, and the socioeconomic impacts of such an effect. The review revealed strong evidence that tobacco smoking is associated with impaired male fertility, and increases in DNA damage, aneuploidies, and mutations in sperm. Studies support that these effects are heritable and adversely impact the offspring. Our model estimates that, with even a modest 25% increase in sperm mutation frequency caused by smoke-exposure, for each generation across the global population there will be millions of smoking-induced de novo mutations transmitted from fathers to offspring. Furthermore, paternal smoking is estimated to contribute to 1.3 million extra cases of aneuploid pregnancies per generation. Thus, the available evidence makes a compelling case that tobacco smoke is a human germ cell mutagen with serious public health and socio-economic implications. Increased public education should be encouraged to promote abstinence from smoking, well in advance of reproduction, to minimize the transmission of harmful mutations to the next-generation. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. ... at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed by the CDC and get a personalized ...

  13. The unexpected but understandable dynamics of mating, paternity and paternal care in the ocellated wrasse

    OpenAIRE

    Alonzo, Suzanne H.; Heckman, Kellie L.

    2009-01-01

    Although theory generally predicts that males should reduce paternal care in response to cues that predict increased sperm competition and decreased paternity, empirical patterns are equivocal. Some studies have found the predicted decrease in male care with increased sperm competition, while even more studies report no effect of paternity or sperm competition on male care. Here, we report the first example, to our knowledge, of paternal care increasing with the risk and intensity of sperm co...

  14. Extra-pair paternity and egg dumping in birds: life history, parental care and the risk of retaliation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Kathryn E; Owens, Ian P F

    2002-06-22

    Molecular techniques have revealed striking variation among bird species in the rates of extra-pair paternity (EPP) and intraspecific brood parasitism (IBP). In terms of the proportion of broods affected, rates of EPP and IBP vary across species from 0-95% and 0-50%, respectively. Despite a plethora of hypotheses and several careful comparative analyses, few robust correlates of this interspecific variation have been identified. One explanation for this shortfall is that most comparative studies have tended to focus on contemporary ecological factors and ignored fundamental differences in reproductive biology that evolved millions of years ago. We show that, for both EPP and IBP, over 50% of interspecific variation is due to differences among taxonomic families and orders. Therefore, we test hypotheses that predict interspecific variation in the rate of alternative reproductive strategies should be associated with differences in life history and the form of parental care. Our analyses largely support these predictions, with high rates of reproductive cheating being associated with 'fast' life histories. High EPP rates are associated with high rates of adult mortality and reduced paternal care. High IBP rates are associated with high-fecundity rates. These patterns remain intact whether we use species as independent data points or evolutionary contrasts based on either molecular or morphological phylogenies. These results are interpreted as supporting the idea that alternative reproductive strategies are most common in taxa in which the risks of retaliation are low. We suggest a hierarchical explanation for interspecific variation in the incidence of alternative reproductive strategies. Variation between major avian lineages in the EPP and IBP rates are determined by fundamental differences in life history and parental care that evolved many millions of years ago. Variation between populations or individuals of the same species, however, are more likely to be

  15. Paternal age at birth and the risk of obesity in young adulthood: a register-based birth cohort study of Norwegian males.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eriksen, Willy; Sundet, Jon M; Tambs, Kristian

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between paternal age at birth and the risk of obesity in young adulthood. Data from the medical birth register of Norway were linked with register data from the Norwegian National Conscript Service and the national statistics agency, Statistics Norway. This study used the data on 346,609 registered males who were born at term in single birth without physical anomalies during 1967-1984 and who were examined at the time of the mandatory military conscription (age 18-20 years). The relationship between paternal age at birth and the occurrence of obesity (body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30.0 kg/m(2) ) at conscription was examined using a multinomial logistic regression analysis with BMI < 25.0 kg/m(2) as the reference outcome category. The relative risk of obesity at conscription increased linearly with increasing paternal age at birth but did not increase (P = 0.52) with maternal age at birth. Men born when their fathers were 50 years or older had a 55% (95% confidence interval (CI): 14%, 110%) higher relative risk of obesity than men born when their fathers were younger than 20 years of age, after adjustment for age at conscription, birth order, birth year, maternal age at birth, the mother's total number of children, and maternal and paternal education levels. The risk of obesity in young Norwegian men increases with advancing paternal age at birth but does not increase with advancing maternal age at birth. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Paternal Age: How Does It Affect a Baby?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... associated with a slightly higher risk of miscarriage. Autism. Research shows a link between advanced paternal age and ... advanced maternal and paternal ages to autism risk. Autism Research. 2010;3:30. McAninch JW, et al. The ...

  17. Why do cuckolded males provide paternal care?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashleigh S Griffin

    Full Text Available In most species, males do not abandon offspring or reduce paternal care when they are cuckolded by other males. This apparent lack of adjustment of paternal investment with the likelihood of paternity presents a potential challenge to our understanding of what drives selection for paternal care. In a comparative analysis across birds, fish, mammals, and insects we identify key factors that explain why cuckolded males in many species do not reduce paternal care. Specifically, we show that cuckolded males only reduce paternal investment if both the costs of caring are relatively high and there is a high risk of cuckoldry. Under these circumstances, selection is expected to favour males that reduce paternal effort in response to cuckoldry. In many species, however, these conditions are not satisfied and tolerant males have outcompeted males that abandon young.

  18. Why Do Cuckolded Males Provide Paternal Care?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, Ashleigh S.; Alonzo, Suzanne H.; Cornwallis, Charlie K.

    2013-01-01

    In most species, males do not abandon offspring or reduce paternal care when they are cuckolded by other males. This apparent lack of adjustment of paternal investment with the likelihood of paternity presents a potential challenge to our understanding of what drives selection for paternal care. In a comparative analysis across birds, fish, mammals, and insects we identify key factors that explain why cuckolded males in many species do not reduce paternal care. Specifically, we show that cuckolded males only reduce paternal investment if both the costs of caring are relatively high and there is a high risk of cuckoldry. Under these circumstances, selection is expected to favour males that reduce paternal effort in response to cuckoldry. In many species, however, these conditions are not satisfied and tolerant males have outcompeted males that abandon young. PMID:23555193

  19. Missing paternal demographics: A novel indicator for identifying high risk population of adverse pregnancy outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen Shi

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background One of every 6 United Status birth certificates contains no information on fathers. There might be important differences in the pregnancy outcomes between mothers with versus those without partner information. The object of this study was to assess whether and to what extent outcomes in pregnant women who did not have partner information differ from those who had. Methods We carried out a population-based retrospective cohort study based on the registry data in the United States for the period of 1995–1997, which was a matched multiple birth file (only twins were included in the current analysis. We divided the study subjects into three groups according to the availability of partner information: available, partly missing, and totally missing. We compared the distribution of maternal characteristics, maternal morbidity, labor and delivery complications, obstetric interventions, preterm birth, fetal growth restriction, low birth weight, congenital anomalies, fetal death, neonatal death, post-neonatal death, and neonatal morbidity among three study groups. Results There were 304466 twins included in our study. Mothers whose partner's information was partly missing and (especially totally missing tended to be younger, of black race, unmarried, with less education, smoking cigarette during pregnancy, and with inadequate prenatal care. The rates of preterm birth, fetal growth restriction, low birth weight, Apgar score Conclusions Mothers whose partner's information was partly and (especially totally missing are at higher risk of adverse pregnant outcomes, and clinicians and public health workers should be alerted to this important social factor.

  20. Relating paternity to paternal care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheldon, Ben C

    2002-03-29

    Intuition suggests, to most people, that parents should be selected to care for their offspring in relation to how certain they are of being the parents of those offspring. Theoretical models of the relationship between parental investment and certainty of parentage predict the two to be related only when some other assumptions are made, few of which can be taken for granted. I briefly review the models and their assumptions, and discuss two kinds of difficulty facing an empiricist wishing to test the models. The first is the problem of unmeasured (and immeasurable) variables. The second is the problem that even the most extensive models do not capture the complexity that can be demonstrated in real systems. I illustrate some of these problems, and some qualitative tests of the models, with experimental work on a population of the collared flycatcher. My conclusion is that although there are some cases where the models have qualitative support, we are a long way from understanding whether paternal care is commonly adjusted in relation to certainty of paternity.

  1. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  2. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  3. Pollinator Risk Assessment Guidance

    Science.gov (United States)

    This Guidance is part of a long-term strategy to advance the science of assessing the risks posed by pesticides to honey bees, giving risk managers the means to further improve pollinator protection in our regulatory decisions.

  4. Change in paternity, risk of placental abruption and confounding by birth interval: a population-based prospective cohort study in Norway, 1967–2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ananth, Cande V; Skjaerven, Rolv; Klunssoyr, Kari

    2015-01-01

    Objectives We examined abruption risk in relation to change in paternity, and evaluated if birth interval confounds this association. Setting Population-based study of singleton births in Norway between 1967 and 2009. Participants Women who had their first two (n=747 566) singleton births in the Norwegian Medical Birth Registry. The associations between partner change between pregnancies and birth interval were examined in relation to abruption in a series of logistic regression models. Primary outcome measures Risk, as well as unadjusted and adjusted OR of placental abruption in relation to change in paternity and interval between births. Results Among women without abruption in their first pregnancy, the risks of abruption in the second pregnancy were 4.7 and 6.5 per 1000 in women who had the same and different partners, respectively (OR=1.39, 95% CI 1.26 to 1.53). After adjustments for confounders including birth interval and smoking, partner change was not associated with abruption (OR=1.01, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.32). Among women with abruption in the first pregnancy, the association between partner change and abruption in the second pregnancy was 0.98 (95% CI 0.75 to 1.28). Interval paternity are not supported insofar as abruption is concerned. PMID:25670732

  5. The role of paternal drinking problems in the psychological characteristics of high school students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Dong Hyun; Kim, Jong Sung; Jung, Jin Gyu; Ryou, Young Il; Kim, Young Seok; Uh, Won Chul

    2013-11-01

    It has been reported that children with parental drinking problems are at increased risk of drinking problems or psychiatric diseases in adulthood. The present study was conducted to examine the psychiatric characteristics of high school students according to paternal drinking problems. The subjects were 950 high school students (390 male and 560 female). The paternal drinking problems were assessed by using the Father-Short Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test. The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test, Beck's depression inventory, and Beck's anxiety inventory were used to evaluate the drinking behavior, depression, and anxiety of high school students. While male students with paternal drinking problems showed significantly increased risk of anxiety (odds ratio [OR], 2.21; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05 to 4.63), female students with paternal drinking problems showed significantly increased risk of depression (OR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.24 to 2.74) according to the results of logistic regression analysis with adjustments for participants' age, whether they live together with parents, their religion, club activities, and smoking habits on the basis of students without paternal drinking problems. The above results suggest that paternal drinking problems lead to unstable mentalities in both male and female students, and that a family physician should address the mental state of teenagers with paternal drinking problems during clinical encounters.

  6. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  7. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  8. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  9. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  10. Recurrence risk of congenital anomalies - the impact of paternal, social, and environmental factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Basso, Olga; Olsen, Jørn; Christensen, Kaare

    1999-01-01

    The authors investigated the recurrence risk of congenital anomalies as a function of changes in genetic and environmental factors in single births following the birth of a child with an anomaly. The study is a population-based historical follow-up using the Danish Medical Birth registry, hospita...

  11. Paternal long-term exercise programs offspring for low energy expenditure and increased risk for obesity in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murashov, Alexander K; Pak, Elena S; Koury, Michael; Ajmera, Ajay; Jeyakumar, Maneesh; Parker, Matthew; Williams, Oksana; Ding, Jian; Walters, Dianne; Neufer, P Darrell

    2016-02-01

    Obesity has more than doubled in children and tripled in adolescents in the past 30 yr. The association between metabolic disorders in offspring of obese mothers with diabetes has long been known; however, a growing body of research indicates that fathers play a significant role through presently unknown mechanisms. Recent observations have shown that changes in paternal diet may result in transgenerational inheritance of the insulin-resistant phenotype. Although diet-induced epigenetic reprogramming via paternal lineage has recently received much attention in the literature, the effect of paternal physical activity on offspring metabolism has not been adequately addressed. In the current study, we investigated the effects of long-term voluntary wheel-running in C57BL/6J male mice on their offspring's predisposition to insulin resistance. Our observations revealed that fathers subjected to wheel-running for 12 wk produced offspring that were more susceptible to the adverse effects of a high-fat diet, manifested in increased body weight and adiposity, impaired glucose tolerance, and elevated insulin levels. Long-term paternal exercise also altered expression of several metabolic genes, including Ogt, Oga, Pdk4, H19, Glut4, and Ptpn1, in offspring skeletal muscle. Finally, prolonged exercise affected gene methylation patterns and micro-RNA content in the sperm of fathers, providing a potential mechanism for the transgenerational inheritance. These findings suggest that paternal exercise produces offspring with a thrifty phenotype, potentially via miRNA-induced modification of sperm. © FASEB.

  12. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  13. Association between maternal, fetal and paternal MTHFR gene C677T and A1298C polymorphisms and risk of recurrent pregnancy loss: a comprehensive evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yi; Luo, Yunyao; Yuan, Jing; Tang, Yidan; Xiong, Lang; Xu, MangMang; Rao, XuDong; Liu, Hao

    2016-06-01

    Numerous studies have investigated the associations between methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) gene C677T and A1298C polymorphisms and risk of recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL); however, the results remain controversial. The aim of this study is to drive a more precise estimation of association between MTHFR gene polymorphisms and risk of RPL. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane library, Web of Science and China Knowledge Resource Integrated Database for papers on MTHFR gene C677T and A1298C polymorphisms and RPL risk. The pooled odds ratios (ORs) with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were used to assess the strength of association in the homozygous model, heterozygous model, dominant model, recessive model and an additive model. The software STATA (Version 13.0) was used for statistical analysis. Overall, 57 articles were included in the final meta-analysis. In maternal group the MTHFR C677T polymorphism showed pooled odds ratios for the homozygous comparison [OR = 2.285, 95 % CI (1.702, 3.067)] and the MTHFR A1298C polymorphism showed pooled odds ratios for recessive model [OR = 1.594, 95 % CI (1.136, 2.238)]. In fetal group the MTHFR C677T polymorphism showed pooled odds ratios for dominant model [OR = 1.037, 95 % CI (0.567, 1.894)] and the MTHFR A1298C polymorphism showed pooled odds ratios for dominant model [OR = 1.495, 95 % CI (1.102, 2.026)]. In summary, the results of our meta-analysis indicate that maternal and paternal MTHFR gene C677T and A1298C polymorphisms are associated with RPL. We also observed a significant association between fetal MTHFR A1298C polymorphism and RPL but not C677T.

  14. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  15. Longer Duration and Earlier Age of Onset of Paternal Betel Chewing and Smoking Increase Metabolic Syndrome Risk in Human Offspring, Independently, in a Community-Based Screening Program in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Amy Ming-Fang; Boucher, Barbara J; Chiu, Sherry Yueh-Hsia; Fann, Jean Ching-Yuan; Chen, Sam Li-Sheng; Huang, Kuo-Chin; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi

    2016-08-02

    Transgenerational effects of paternal Areca catechu nut chewing on offspring metabolic syndrome (MetS) risk in humans, on obesity and diabetes mellitus experimentally, and of paternal smoking on offspring obesity, are reported, likely attributable to genetic and epigenetic effects previously reported in betel-associated disease. We aimed to determine the effects of paternal smoking, and betel chewing, on the risks of early MetS in human offspring. The 13 179 parent-child trios identified from 238 364 Taiwanese aged ≥20 years screened at 2 community-based integrated screening sessions were tested for the effects of paternal smoking, areca nut chewing, and their duration prefatherhood on age of detecting offspring MetS at screen by using a Cox proportional hazards regression model. Offspring MetS risks increased with prefatherhood paternal areca nutusage (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.23-2.53) versus nonchewing fathers (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.28; 95% CI, 1.67-6.43) with >10 years paternal betel chewing, 1.62 (95% CI, 0.88-2.96) for 5 to 9 years, and 1.42 (95% CI, 0.80-2.54) for betel usage prefatherhood (Ptrend=0.0002), with increased risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.26-3.04) for paternal areca nut usage from 20 to 29 years of age, versus from >30 years of age (adjusted hazard ratio,1.61; 95% CI, 0.22-11.69). MetS offspring risk for paternal smoking increased dosewise (Ptrendbetel quid chewing and smoking, prefatherhood, independently predicted early occurrence of incident MetS in offspring, corroborating previously reported transgenerational effects of these habits, and supporting the need for habit-cessation program provision. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  16. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  17. Paternal programming of breast cancer risk in daughters in a rat model: opposing effects of animal- and plant-based high-fat diets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontelles, Camile Castilho; Guido, Luiza Nicolosi; Rosim, Mariana Papaléo; Andrade, Fábia de Oliveira; Jin, Lu; Inchauspe, Jessica; Pires, Vanessa Cardoso; de Castro, Inar Alves; Hilakivi-Clarke, Leena; de Assis, Sonia; Ong, Thomas Prates

    2016-07-26

    Although males contribute half of the embryo's genome, only recently has interest begun to be directed toward the potential impact of paternal experiences on the health of offspring. While there is evidence that paternal malnutrition may increase offspring susceptibility to metabolic diseases, the influence of paternal factors on a daughter's breast cancer risk has been examined in few studies. Male Sprague-Dawley rats were fed, before and during puberty, either a lard-based (high in saturated fats) or a corn oil-based (high in n-6 polyunsaturated fats) high-fat diet (60 % of fat-derived energy). Control animals were fed an AIN-93G control diet (16 % of fat-derived energy). Their 50-day-old female offspring fed only a commercial diet were subjected to the classical model of mammary carcinogenesis based on 7,12-dimethylbenz[a]anthracene initiation, and mammary tumor development was evaluated. Sperm cells and mammary gland tissue were subjected to cellular and molecular analysis. Compared with female offspring of control diet-fed male rats, offspring of lard-fed male rats did not differ in tumor latency, growth, or multiplicity. However, female offspring of lard-fed male rats had increased elongation of the mammary epithelial tree, number of terminal end buds, and tumor incidence compared with both female offspring of control diet-fed and corn oil-fed male rats. Compared with female offspring of control diet-fed male rats, female offspring of corn oil-fed male rats showed decreased tumor growth but no difference regarding tumor incidence, latency, or multiplicity. Additionally, female offspring of corn oil-fed male rats had longer tumor latency as well as decreased tumor growth and multiplicity compared with female offspring of lard-fed male rats. Paternal consumption of animal- or plant-based high-fat diets elicited opposing effects, with lard rich in saturated fatty acids increasing breast cancer risk in offspring and corn oil rich in n-6 polyunsaturated fatty

  18. Testing the fetal overnutrition hypothesis; the relationship of maternal and paternal adiposity to adiposity, insulin resistance and cardiovascular risk factors in Indian children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veena, Sargoor R; Krishnaveni, Ghattu V; Karat, Samuel C; Osmond, Clive; Fall, Caroline HD

    2012-01-01

    Objective We aimed to test the fetal overnutrition hypothesis by comparing the associations of maternal and paternal adiposity (sum of skinfolds) with adiposity and cardiovascular risk factors in children. Design Children from a prospective birth cohort had anthropometry, fat percentage (bio-impedance), plasma glucose, insulin and lipid concentrations and blood pressure measured at 9·5 years of age. Detailed anthropometric measurements were recorded for mothers (at 30 ± 2 weeks’ gestation) and fathers (5 years following the index pregnancy). Setting Holdsworth Memorial Hospital, Mysore, India. Subjects Children (n 504), born to mothers with normal glucose tolerance during pregnancy. Results Twenty-eight per cent of mothers and 38 % of fathers were overweight/obese (BMI ≥ 25·0 kg/m2), but only 4 % of the children were overweight/obese (WHO age- and sex-specific BMI ≥ 18·2 kg/m2). The children’s adiposity (BMI, sum of skinfolds, fat percentage and waist circumference), fasting insulin concentration and insulin resistance increased with increasing maternal and paternal sum of skinfolds adjusted for the child’s sex, age and socio-economic status. Maternal and paternal effects were similar. The associations with fasting insulin and insulin resistance were attenuated after adjusting for the child’s current adiposity. Conclusions In this population, both maternal and paternal adiposity equally predict adiposity and insulin resistance in the children. This suggests that shared family environment and lifestyle, or genetic/epigenetic factors, influence child adiposity. Our findings do not support the hypothesis that there is an intrauterine overnutrition effect of maternal adiposity in non-diabetic pregnancies, although we cannot rule out such an effect in cases of extreme maternal obesity, which is rare in our population. PMID:22895107

  19. Testing the fetal overnutrition hypothesis; the relationship of maternal and paternal adiposity to adiposity, insulin resistance and cardiovascular risk factors in Indian children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veena, Sargoor R; Krishnaveni, Ghattu V; Karat, Samuel C; Osmond, Clive; Fall, Caroline H D

    2013-09-01

    We aimed to test the fetal overnutrition hypothesis by comparing the associations of maternal and paternal adiposity (sum of skinfolds) with adiposity and cardiovascular risk factors in children. Children from a prospective birth cohort had anthropometry, fat percentage (bio-impedance), plasma glucose, insulin and lipid concentrations and blood pressure measured at 9.5 years of age. Detailed anthropometric measurements were recorded for mothers (at 3±2 weeks’ gestation) and fathers (5 years following the index pregnancy). Holdsworth Memorial Hospital, Mysore, India. Children (n 504), born to mothers with normal glucose tolerance during pregnancy. Twenty-eight per cent of mothers and 38% of fathers were overweight/ obese (BMI≥25.0 kg/m²), but only 4% of the children were overweight/obese (WHO age- and sex-specific BMI≥18.2 kg/m²). The children’s adiposity (BMI, sum of skinfolds, fat percentage and waist circumference), fasting insulin concentration and insulin resistance increased with increasing maternal and paternal sum of skinfolds adjusted for the child’s sex, age and socio-economic status. Maternal and paternal effects were similar. The associations with fasting insulin and insulin resistance were attenuated after adjusting for the child’s current adiposity. In this population, both maternal and paternal adiposity equally predict adiposity and insulin resistance in the children. This suggests that shared family environment and lifestyle, or genetic/epigenetic factors, influence child adiposity. Our findings do not support the hypothesis that there is an intrauterine overnutrition effect of maternal adiposity in non-diabetic pregnancies, although we cannot rule out such an effect in cases of extreme maternal obesity, which is rare in our population.

  20. Public Risk Assessment Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendeck, Gavin

    2010-01-01

    The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

  1. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  2. Cues of Paternal Uncertainty and Father to Child Physical Abuse as Reported by Mothers in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandre, Gisele Caldas; Nadanovsky, Paulo; Wilson, Margo; Daly, Martin; Moraes, Claudia Leite; Reichenheim, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Objective: Paternity is uncertain, so if paternal feelings evolved to promote fitness, we might expect them to vary in response to variables indicative of paternity probability. We therefore hypothesized that the risk of lapses of paternal affection, including abusive assaults on children, will be exacerbated by cues of non-paternity. Methods:…

  3. Is there an association between advanced paternal age and endophenotype deficit levels in schizophrenia?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debby Tsuang

    Full Text Available The children of older fathers have increased risks of developing schizophrenia spectrum disorders, and among those who develop these disorders, those with older fathers present with more severe clinical symptoms. However, the influence of advanced paternal age on other important domains related to schizophrenia, such as quantitative endophenotype deficit levels, remains unknown. This study investigated the associations between paternal age and level of endophenotypic impairment in a well-characterized family-based sample from the Consortium on the Genetics of Schizophrenia (COGS. All families included at least one affected subject and one unaffected sibling. Subjects met criteria for schizophrenia (probands; n = 293 or were unaffected first-degree siblings of those probands (n = 382. Paternal age at the time of subjects' birth was documented. Subjects completed a comprehensive clinical assessment and a battery of tests that measured 16 endophenotypes. After controlling for covariates, potential paternal age-endophenotype associations were analyzed using one model that included probands alone and a second model that included both probands and unaffected siblings. Endophenotype deficits in the Identical Pairs version of the 4-digit Continuous Performance Test and in the Penn Computerized Neurocognitive Battery verbal memory test showed significant associations with paternal age. However, after correcting for multiple comparisons, no endophenotype was significantly associated with paternal age. These findings suggest that factors other than advanced paternal age at birth may account for endophenotypic deficit levels in schizophrenia.

  4. Ethical aspects of paternal preconception lifestyle modification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Zee, Boukje; de Wert, Guido; Steegers, Eric A; de Beaufort, Inez D

    2013-07-01

    This Clinical Opinion points to a potential conflict between the scarcity of evidence on paternal preconception risk factors for adverse pregnancy outcomes and the view that preconception care should be also directed at men. We argue that from an ethical perspective, responsible fatherhood starts already before conception, as long as the evidence increases on the benefits of paternal preconception lifestyle (modification). Our explorative study suggests that the strength of the evidence for paternal preconception lifestyle modification is important for men. We argue that 5 aspects together determine the moral responsibility of prospective fathers to modify their behavior: the strength of the evidence of the risk factor, the modifiability of the risk, the efforts necessary to eliminate or diminish the risk factor, the severity of harm, and the probability that harm will occur and that it will be prevented by modifying the risk factor. The case of paternal preconception smoking illustrates the analysis. Copyright © 2013 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. The association between perceived maternal and paternal psychopathology and depression and anxiety symptoms in adolescent girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasing, Sanne P A; Creemers, Daan H M; Janssens, Jan M A M; Scholte, Ron H J

    2015-01-01

    Exposure to parental depression and anxiety is known to heighten the risk of internalizing symptoms and disorders in children and adolescents. Ample research has focused on the influence of maternal depression and anxiety, but the contribution of psychopathology in fathers remains unclear. We studied the relationships of perceived maternal and paternal psychopathology with adolescents' depression and anxiety symptoms in a general population sample of 862 adolescent girls (age M = 12.39, SD = 0.79). Assessments included adolescents' self-reports of their own depression and anxiety as well as their reports of maternal and paternal psychopathology. We found that perceived maternal and paternal psychopathology were both related to depression and anxiety symptoms in adolescent girls. A combination of higher maternal and paternal psychopathology was related to even higher levels of depression and anxiety in adolescent girls. Our findings showed that adolescents' perceptions of their parents' psychopathology are significantly related to their own emotional problems.

  6. The Association between Perceived Maternal and Paternal Psychopathology and Depression and Anxiety Symptoms in Adolescent Girls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanne P.A. Rasing

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Exposure to parental depression and anxiety is known to heighten the risk of internalizing symptoms and disorders in children and adolescents. Ample research has focused on the influence of maternal depression and anxiety, but the contribution of psychopathology in fathers remains unclear. We studied the relationships of perceived maternal and paternal psychopathology with adolescents’ depression and anxiety symptoms in a general population sample of 862 adolescent girls (age M = 12.39, SD = .79. Assessments included adolescents’ self-reports of their own depression and anxiety as well as their reports of maternal and paternal psychopathology. We found that perceived maternal and paternal psychopathology were both related to depression and anxiety symptoms in adolescent girls. A combination of higher maternal and paternal psychopathology was related to even higher levels of depression and anxiety in adolescent girls. Our findings showed that adolescents’ perceptions of their parents’ psychopathology are significantly related to their own emotional problems.

  7. The association between perceived maternal and paternal psychopathology and depression and anxiety symptoms in adolescent girls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasing, Sanne P. A.; Creemers, Daan H. M.; Janssens, Jan M. A. M.; Scholte, Ron H. J.

    2015-01-01

    Exposure to parental depression and anxiety is known to heighten the risk of internalizing symptoms and disorders in children and adolescents. Ample research has focused on the influence of maternal depression and anxiety, but the contribution of psychopathology in fathers remains unclear. We studied the relationships of perceived maternal and paternal psychopathology with adolescents’ depression and anxiety symptoms in a general population sample of 862 adolescent girls (age M = 12.39, SD = 0.79). Assessments included adolescents’ self-reports of their own depression and anxiety as well as their reports of maternal and paternal psychopathology. We found that perceived maternal and paternal psychopathology were both related to depression and anxiety symptoms in adolescent girls. A combination of higher maternal and paternal psychopathology was related to even higher levels of depression and anxiety in adolescent girls. Our findings showed that adolescents’ perceptions of their parents’ psychopathology are significantly related to their own emotional problems. PMID:26257664

  8. Assessment of fracture risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanis, John A. [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom)], E-mail: w.j.pontefract@sheffield.ac.uk; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom); McCloskey, Eugene V. [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom); Osteoporosis Centre, Northern General Hospital, Sheffield (United Kingdom)

    2009-09-15

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  9. Microbial Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  10. Teenage pregnancy and the influence of paternal involvement on fetal outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alio, Amina P; Mbah, Alfred K; Grunsten, Ryan A; Salihu, Hamisu M

    2011-12-01

    We sought to assess the impact of paternal involvement on adverse birth outcomes in teenage mothers. Using vital records data, we generated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to assess the association between paternal involvement and fetal outcomes in 192,747 teenage mothers. Paternal involvement status was based on presence/absence of paternal first and/or last name on the birth certificate. Data were obtained from vital records data from singleton births in Florida between 1998 and 2007. The study population consisted of 192,747 teenage mothers ≤ 20 years old with live single births in the State of Florida. Low birth weight, very low birth weight, preterm birth, very preterm birth, small for gestational age (SGA), neonatal death, post-neonatal death, and infant death. Risks of SGA (OR = 1.06; 95% CI: 1.03-1.10), low birth weight (OR = 1.19; 95% CI: 1.15-1.23), very low birth weight (OR = 1.53; 95% CI: 1.41-1.67), preterm birth (OR = 1.21; 95% CI: 1.17-1.25), and very preterm birth (OR = 1.49; 95% CI: 1.38-1.62) were elevated for mothers in the father-absent group. When results were stratified by race, black teenagers in the father-absent group had the highest risks of adverse birth outcomes when compared to white teenagers in the father-involved group. Lack of paternal involvement is a risk factor for adverse birth outcomes among teenage mothers; risks are most pronounced among African-American teenagers. Our findings suggest that increased paternal involvement can have a positive impact on birth outcomes for teenage mothers, which may be important for decreasing the racial disparities in infant morbidities. More studies assessing the impact of greater paternal involvement on birth outcomes are needed. Copyright © 2011 North American Society for Pediatric and Adolescent Gynecology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Maternal and paternal periconceptional nutrition as an indicator of offspring metabolic syndrome risk in later life through epigenetic imprinting: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunford, Ashley R; Sangster, Janice M

    2017-05-10

    This review examined whether maternal and paternal periconceptional nutrition effects an offspring's likelihood of developing chronic metabolic related conditions due to epigenetic imprinting. A literature search was conducted in multiple science databases and limited to studies published after 2012, in English language and peer reviewed. The data from selected articles were extracted and a qualitative approach was employed due to heterogeneity of results. Newborns from obese fathers showed altered methylation overall and significant hypomethylation at the Insulin-like Growth Factor 2 (IGF2) gene. High maternal pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) was associated with altered offspring DNA methylation levels and gestational diabetes mellitus induced significantly increased methylation levels in offspring. Gestational weight gain was not associated with differentially methylated cord blood. Birth weight was higher in offspring exposed to famine in early gestation. Offspring born post maternal bariatric surgery showed a lower percentage of body fat and improved fasting insulin levels compared to siblings born pre-maternal bariatric surgery. The available evidence suggests that poor maternal and paternal periconceptional nutrition can increase the risk of metabolic syndrome in offspring, through epigenetic imprinting. Potential parents should be advised that maintaining a healthy diet and BMI is likely to reduce the risk of metabolic syndrome in offspring. Copyright © 2017 Diabetes India. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Risk Assessment in Criminal Sentencing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2016-01-01

    The past several years have seen a surge of interest in using risk assessment in criminal sentencing, both to reduce recidivism by incapacitating or treating high-risk offenders and to reduce prison populations by diverting low-risk offenders from prison. We begin by sketching jurisprudential theories of sentencing, distinguishing those that rely on risk assessment from those that preclude it. We then characterize and illustrate the varying roles that risk assessment may play in the sentencing process. We clarify questions regarding the various meanings of "risk" in sentencing and the appropriate time to assess the risk of convicted offenders. We conclude by addressing four principal problems confronting risk assessment in sentencing: conflating risk and blame, barring individual inferences based on group data, failing adequately to distinguish risk assessment from risk reduction, and ignoring whether, and if so, how, the use of risk assessment in sentencing affects racial and economic disparities in imprisonment.

  13. Who wants paternalism?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Sofie K.; Koch, Alexander Karl; Nafziger, Julia

    2014-01-01

    Little is known about the demand side of paternalism. We investigate attitudes towards paternalism among Danish students. The main question is whether demand for paternalism is related to self-control, either because people with self-control problems seek commitment devices to overcome...... these problems, or because people with good self-control want those who lack it to change their behaviours. We find no evidence linking self-control to attitudes towards weak forms of paternalism (e.g., nudges or information about health consequences). But respondents with good self-control are significantly...... more favourable towards strong paternalism (e.g., restricting choices or sin taxes) than those struggling with self-control....

  14. Who wants paternalism?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Sofie Kragh; Koch, Alexander Karl; Nafziger, Julia

    Little is known about the demand side of paternalism. We investigate attitudes towards paternalism among Danish students. The main question is whether demand for paternalism is related to self-control, either because people with self-control problems seek commitment devices to overcome...... these problems, or because people with good self-control want those who lack it to change their behaviors. We find no evidence linking self-control to attitudes towards weak forms of paternalism (e.g. nudges or information about health consequences). But respondents with good selfcontrol are significantly more...... favorable towards strong paternalism (e.g. restricting choices or sin taxes) than those struggling with self-control....

  15. The unexpected but understandable dynamics of mating, paternity and paternal care in the ocellated wrasse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonzo, Suzanne H; Heckman, Kellie L

    2010-01-07

    Although theory generally predicts that males should reduce paternal care in response to cues that predict increased sperm competition and decreased paternity, empirical patterns are equivocal. Some studies have found the predicted decrease in male care with increased sperm competition, while even more studies report no effect of paternity or sperm competition on male care. Here, we report the first example, to our knowledge, of paternal care increasing with the risk and intensity of sperm competition, in the ocellated wrasse (Symphodus ocellatus). Theory also predicts that if paternal care varies and is important to female fitness, female choice among males and male indicators traits of expected paternal care should evolve. Despite a non-random distribution of mating success among nests, we found no evidence for female choice among parental males. Finally, we document the highest published levels of extra-pair paternity for a species with exclusive and obligate male care: genetic paternity analyses revealed cuckoldry at 100 per cent of nests and 28 per cent of all offspring were not sired by the male caring for them. While not predicted by any existing theory, these unexpected reproductive patterns become understandable if we consider how male and female mating and parental care interact simultaneously in this and probably many other species.

  16. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  17. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  18. Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This is the first step in a long-term effort to develop risk assessment guidelines for ecological effects. Its primary purpose is to offer a simple, flexible structure for conducting and evaluating ecological risk assessment within EPA.

  19. Framework for Metals Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Framework for Metals Risk Assessment is a science-based document that addresses the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  20. Case-control analysis of paternal age and trisomic anomalies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Souza, E; Morris, David Jackson; Garne, Ester

    2010-01-01

    To determine whether older paternal age increases the risk of fathering a pregnancy with Patau (trisomy 13), Edwards (trisomy 18), Klinefelter (XXY) or XYY syndrome.......To determine whether older paternal age increases the risk of fathering a pregnancy with Patau (trisomy 13), Edwards (trisomy 18), Klinefelter (XXY) or XYY syndrome....

  1. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited....... CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate models and baseline caries prevalence performed better in pre-school children than in schoolchildren/adolescents. Baseline caries prevalence was the most accurate single predictor in all age groups. The heterogeneity of populations, models, outcome criteria, measures and reporting...

  2. Advances in stalking risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEwan, Troy E; Pathé, Michele; Ogloff, James R P

    2011-01-01

    Over the past 15 years, forensic mental health has become more concerned with the concepts of violence prevention, management, and treatment. The development of specialist tools to aid in the assessment of a range of risks reflects this concern. This article explores contemporary thinking on violence risk assessment and how this knowledge can be applied to the relatively newer field of stalking risk assessment. The role of risk state and risk status are discussed, in addition to the way that standard structured professional judgment procedures need to be adapted to reflect the variety of risks present in stalking situations. The authors go on to describe the development and format of the Stalking Risk Profile, a set of structured professional judgment guidelines for assessing risk in stalkers. Suggestions are made for future research to enhance knowledge and improve practice in the field of stalking risk assessment. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Paternal and maternal age at pregnancy and autism spectrum disorders in offspring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luh Putu Rihayani Budi

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background The prevalence of autism spectrum disorders (ASDs has increased 10 times over the past half century, while paternal and maternal age at pregnancy has also increased. Studies looking for an association between paternal or maternal age at pregnancy and ASDs in offspring have not been conclusive. Objective To assess for possible associations between paternal and maternal age at pregnancy and ASDs in offspring. Methods This case-control study had 50 case and 100 control subjects, each case was matched for age and gender to two controls. Case subjects were obtained by consecutive sampling of patients aged 18 months to 7 years who visited the Developmental Behavioral & Community Pediatrics Outpatient Clinic and private growth and development centers from January to April 2013, while control group were children of the same age range and same gender who visited pediatric outpatient clinic at Sanglah Hospital mostly due to acute respiratory tract infection, without ASDs as assessed by the DSM-IV-TR criteria. We interviewed parents to collect the following data: maternal and paternal age at pregnancy, child’s birth weight, history of asphyxia, hospital admission during the neonatal period, pathological labor, maternal smoking during pregnancy, paternal smoking, and gestational age. Data analysis was performed with Chi-square and Fisher’s exact tests. Results Multivariable analysis showed that higher paternal age at pregnancy was associated with ASDs in offspring (OR 6.3; 95%CI 2.0 to 19.3; P 0.001. However, there was no significant association between maternal age during pregnancy and the incidence of ASDs. Asphyxia and paternal smoking were also associated with higher incidence of ASDs in the offspring (OR 10.3; 95%CI 1.9 to 56.5; P 0.007 and OR 3.2; 95%CI 1.5 to 6.9; P 0.003, respectively. Conclusion Paternal age >=40 years increased the risk of ASDs in offspring by 6.3 times. In addition, paternal smoking increased the risk of ASDs in

  4. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  5. Comparison of associations of maternal peri-pregnancy and paternal anthropometrics with child anthropometrics from birth through age 7 y assessed in the Danish National Birth Cohort

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sorensen, Thorkild I. A.; Ajslev, Teresa Adeltoft; Angquist, Lars

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Background: Maternal prepregnancy adiposity may influence child adiposity beyond the transmitted genetic effects, which, if true, may accelerate the obesity epidemic, but the evidence for this mechanism is inconsistent. Objective: The aim was to assess whether the associations of maternal...... body mass index (BMI) with child anthropometric measurements from birth through infancy and at 7 y of age exceed those of paternal associations. Design: In the Danish National Birth Cohort, information on parental and child anthropometric measures is available for 30,655 trio families from maternal...... interviews during pregnancy and the postpartum period and from a 7-y follow-up. By using multiple linear and logistic regression models of child SD (z) scores of weight and BMI at birth, 5 mo, 12 mo, and 7 y of age, and of child overweight at age 7 y, we compared associations with maternal prepregnancy...

  6. Comparison of associations of maternal peri-pregnancy and paternal anthropometrics with child anthropometrics from birth through age 7 y assessed in the Danish National Birth Cohort

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Thorkild Ia; Ajslev, Teresa Adeltoft; Ängquist, Lars

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Maternal prepregnancy adiposity may influence child adiposity beyond the transmitted genetic effects, which, if true, may accelerate the obesity epidemic, but the evidence for this mechanism is inconsistent. OBJECTIVE: The aim was to assess whether the associations of maternal body mass...... index (BMI) with child anthropometric measurements from birth through infancy and at 7 y of age exceed those of paternal associations. DESIGN: In the Danish National Birth Cohort, information on parental and child anthropometric measures is available for 30,655 trio families from maternal interviews...... during pregnancy and the postpartum period and from a 7-y follow-up. By using multiple linear and logistic regression models of child SD (z) scores of weight and BMI at birth, 5 mo, 12 mo, and 7 y of age, and of child overweight at age 7 y, we compared associations with maternal prepregnancy...

  7. Fact Sheet: Assessing Risks from Flame Retardants

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA's assessing and managing risk programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

  8. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  9. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  10. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  11. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  12. Committee opinion no. 634: Hereditary cancer syndromes and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    A hereditary cancer syndrome is a genetic predisposition to certain types of cancer, often with onset at an early age, caused by inherited mutations in one or more genes. Cases of cancer commonly encountered by obstetrician-gynecologists or other obstetric-gynecologic providers--such as breast cancer, ovarian cancer, and endometrial cancer--are features of specific hereditary cancer syndromes. The most common hereditary cancer syndromes related to gynecologic cancer include hereditary breast and ovarian cancer syndrome, Lynch syndrome, Li-Fraumeni syndrome, Cowden syndrome, and Peutz-Jeghers syndrome. A hereditary cancer risk assessment is the key to identifying patients and families who may be at increased risk of developing certain types of cancer. Screening should include, at minimum, a personal cancer history and a first- and second-degree relative cancer history that includes a description of the type of primary cancer, the age of onset, and the lineage (paternal versus maternal) of the family member. In addition, a patient's ethnic background can influence her genetic risk. If a hereditary cancer risk assessment suggests an increased risk of a hereditary cancer syndrome, referral to a specialist in cancer genetics or a health care provider with expertise in genetics is recommended for expanded gathering of family history information, risk assessment, education, and counseling, which may lead to genetic testing.

  13. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  14. Maternal and paternal risk factors for cryptorchidism and hypospadias: a case-control study in newborn boys

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    F.H. Pierik (Frank); A. Burdorf (Alex); J.A. Deddens (James); R.E. Juttmann (Rikard); R.F.A. Weber (Robert)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractLittle is known on environmental risk factors for cryptorchidism and hypospadias, which are among the most frequent congenital abnormalities. The aim of our study was to identify risk factors for cryptorchidism and hypospadias, with a focus on potential endocrine

  15. Maternal and paternal risk factors for cryptorchidism and hypospadias: A case-control study in newborn boys

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pierik, F.H.; Burdorf, A.; Deddens, J.A.; Juttmann, R.E.; Weber, R.F.A.

    2004-01-01

    Little is known on environmental risk factors for cryptorchidism and hypospadias, which are among the most frequent congenital abnormalities. The aim of our study was to identify risk factors for cryptorchidism and hypospadias, with a focus on potential endocrine disruptors in parental diet and

  16. Paternity analysis in Excel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocheta, Margarida; Dionísio, F Miguel; Fonseca, Luís; Pires, Ana M

    2007-12-01

    Paternity analysis using microsatellite information is a well-studied subject. These markers are ideal for parentage studies and fingerprinting, due to their high-discrimination power. This type of data is used to assign paternity, to compute the average selfing and outcrossing rates and to estimate the biparental inbreeding. There are several public domain programs that compute all this information from data. Most of the time, it is necessary to export data to some sort of format, feed it to the program and import the output to an Excel book for further processing. In this article we briefly describe a program referred from now on as Paternity Analysis in Excel (PAE), developed at IST and IBET (see the acknowledgments) that computes paternity candidates from data, and other information, from within Excel. In practice this means that the end user provides the data in an Excel sheet and, by pressing an appropriate button, obtains the results in another Excel sheet. For convenience PAE is divided into two modules. The first one is a filtering module that selects data from the sequencer and reorganizes it in a format appropriate to process paternity analysis, assuming certain conventions for the names of parents and offspring from the sequencer. The second module carries out the paternity analysis assuming that one parent is known. Both modules are written in Excel-VBA and can be obtained at the address (www.math.ist.utl.pt/~fmd/pa/pa.zip). They are free for non-commercial purposes and have been tested with different data and against different software (Cervus, FaMoz, and MLTR).

  17. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given......, and also assist industry in their ambition to design innovative yet safe foods for consumers....

  18. Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

  19. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    and to substitute with less toxic compounds. Actually, if exposure is constant across product class, producersmay make substitution decisions based on hazard. Hazard classification is also useful during major accidents where there is no time for risk assessment and the exposure is likely to be substantial enough...... to be a risk. A hazard does not necessarily constitute a risk, as efforts can be done to minimize risk by reducing the exposure. Thus, the relationship between hazard and risk must be treated cautiously. Fora robust risk assessment good data on exposure to the substance is needed and exposure data for other...... similarly acting substances are needed for assessing the risk for mixture effects. Such data may, however, often be absent. Toxicological potency, i.e. the lowest dose found to cause adverse effects, has been proposed as one of the key characteristics when evaluating safety of a substance. However, this may...

  20. Risk-Assessment Computer Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias, William C.; Mittman, David S.

    1993-01-01

    RISK D/C is prototype computer program assisting in attempts to do program risk modeling for Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) architectures proposed in Synthesis Group Report. Risk assessment performed with respect to risk events, probabilities, and severities of potential results. Enables ranking, with respect to effectiveness, of risk-mitigation strategies proposed for exploration program architecture. Allows for fact that risk assessment in early phases of planning subjective. Although specific to SEI in present form, also used as software framework for development of risk-assessment programs for other specific uses. Developed for Macintosh(TM) series computer. Requires HyperCard(TM) 2.0 or later, as well as 2 Mb of random-access memory and System 6.0.8 or later.

  1. Advancing Paternal Age and Simplex Autism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puleo, Connor Morrow; Schmeidler, James; Reichenberg, Abraham; Kolevzon, Alexander; Soorya, Latha V.; Buxbaum, Joseph D.; Silverman, Jeremy M.

    2012-01-01

    De novo events appear more common in female and simplex autism spectrum disorder (ASD) cases and may underlie greater ASD risk in older fathers' offspring. This study examined whether advancing paternal age predicts an increase in simplex (n = 90) versus multiplex ASD cases (n = 587) in 677 participants (340 families). Whether or not controlling…

  2. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Ecological Soil Screening Level (Eco-SSL) Work Group, composed of scientists and risk assessors from EPA, Environment Canada, DOE, Army, Navy, Air Force, states, industry, academia, and consulting companies, has been working on the development of scientifically sound, ecologi...

  3. Balancing risk: Ethical issues in risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Longstreth, J.D.

    1992-06-01

    The last five decades have seen an explosive growth of information, accompanied by the development of a strong environmental movement. These two factors have been critical contributors to the development of the scientific discipline that has come to be called risk analysis or risk assessment. In this context, risk assessment can be described as an analytic approach used to organize large amounts of information from diverse disciplines so as to evaluate the possible impacts of pollution on human health and the environment. Early efforts in this field focused on the protection of human health. More recently, however, it has been realized that humans and their environment are intimately linked and that environmental impacts must also be evaluated. At some point, it seems likely that the joint goals of protecting human health and the environment may come into conflict. This essay reviews current developments in the assessment of risks both to humans and the environment in order to expose similarities and differences with the ultimate aim of opening a dialogue between scientists in the different disciplines so that evaluation strategies can be designed which will enable decision makers to make trade-offs between human health and environmental risk is an informed and egalitarian way.

  4. Fetal exposure to maternal and paternal smoking and the risks of wheezing in preschool children: The generation R study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Duijts (Liesbeth); V.W.V. Jaddoe (Vincent); R.J.P. van der Valk (Ralf); J. Henderson (John); A. Hofman (Albert); H. Raat (Hein); E.A.P. Steegers (Eric); H.A. Moll (Henriëtte); J.C. de Jongste (Johan)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Previous studies have suggested that fetal smoke exposure is associated with increased risks of wheezing during childhood. The underlying pathways are unknown. We examined the associations of parental smoking during pregnancy with wheezing in preschool children and whether

  5. Options for operational risk assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dover, S.A.

    1985-01-01

    Risk assessment is a set of analytical tools that can be used to clarify possible outcomes of decisions where two different courses of action are indicated or different values are in conflict. These conflicts often arise in the management of any production or support facility. This paper outlines the options for performing risk assessments of any scope and the parameters that determine their effectiveness. It highlights the relative costs of each option, useful information developed, and limitations of the information. The paper concludes with the types of decisions that are routinely made in an operating facility and could benefit from the information generated in a risk assessment.

  6. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... and toxicity. Whereas Risk Assessment (RA) aims to identify absolute risks, LCA assess potential or relative impacts. LCA is readily applicable to nanotechnologies and several studies have been carried out, but LCA faces large problems when addressing toxic impacts of nanomaterials emitted during the life...... cycle. The models for assessing toxic impacts in LCA are to a large extent based on those developed for RA, e.g. EUSES, and require basic information about the inherent properties of the emissions like solubility, LogKow,ED50 etc. Additionally, it is a prerequisite to know how to characterize...

  7. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  8. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  9. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  10. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    A strategy for delineating risk factors from use of neurotoxic chemicals was applied to the Danish working environment. An analysis using this strategy disclosed the need for internationally adopted criteria for neurotoxicity, and consequently a working group was established by the Nordic Council...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  11. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  12. The risk assessment information system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kerr, S.B.; Bonczek, R.R.; McGinn, C.W.; Land, M.L.; Bloom, L.D.; Sample, B.E.; Dolislager, F.G.

    1998-06-01

    In an effort to provide service-oriented environmental risk assessment expertise, the Department of Energy (DOE) Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) and DOE Oak Ridge Operations Office (ORO) are sponsoring Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to develop a web-based system for disseminating risk tools and information to its users. This system, the Risk Assessment Information System (RAIS), was initially developed to support the site-specific needs of the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration Risk Assessment Program. With support from the CRE, the system is currently being expanded to benefit all DOE risk information users and can be tailored to meet site-specific needs. Taking advantage of searchable and executable databases, menu-driven queries, and data downloads, using the latest World Wide Web technologies, the RAIS offers essential tools that are used in the risk assessment process or anywhere from project scoping to implementation. The RAIS tools can be located directly at http://risk.lsd.ornl.gov/homepage/rap{_}tool.htm or through the CRE`s homepage at http://www.doe.gov/riskcenter/home.html.

  13. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... know before using this tool: The Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool was designed for use by doctors and other health providers with their patients. If you are not a health ... your personal risk of colorectal cancer. (Colorectal cancer is another way ...

  14. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  15. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  16. SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF LEVEES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Rosidi

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available A seismic risk assessment procedure for earth embankments and levees is presented. The procedure consists of three major elements: (1 probability of ground motion at the site, (2 probability of levee failure given a level of ground motion has occurred and (3 expected loss resulting from the failure. This paper discusses the first two elements of the risk assessment. The third element, which includes economic losses and human casualty, will not be presented herein. The ground motions for risk assessment are developed using a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. A two-dimensional finite element analysis is performed to estimate the dynamic responses of levee, and the probability of levee failure is calculated using the levee fragility curve. The overall objective of the assessment is to develop an analytical tool for assessing the failure risk and the effectiveness of various levee strengthening alternatives for risk reduction. An example of the procedure, as it applies to a levee built along the perimeter of an island for flood protection and water storage, is presented. Variations in earthquake ground motion and soil and water conditions at the site are incorporated in the risk assessment. The effects of liquefaction in the foundation soils are also considered.

  17. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models....... enables the relative importance of the different factors (i.e. degree of climate change, assets value, discount rate etc.) to be determined, thus influencing the overall output of the assessment.......Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...

  18. Paternal age at childbirth and eating disorders in offspring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javaras, K N; Rickert, M E; Thornton, L M; Peat, C M; Baker, J H; Birgegård, A; Norring, C; Landén, M; Almqvist, C; Larsson, H; Lichtenstein, P; Bulik, C M; D'Onofrio, B M

    2017-02-01

    Advanced paternal age at childbirth is associated with psychiatric disorders in offspring, including schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and autism. However, few studies have investigated paternal age's relationship with eating disorders in offspring. In a large, population-based cohort, we examined the association between paternal age and offspring eating disorders, and whether that association remains after adjustment for potential confounders (e.g. parental education level) that may be related to late/early selection into fatherhood and to eating disorder incidence. Data for 2 276 809 individuals born in Sweden 1979-2001 were extracted from Swedish population and healthcare registers. The authors used Cox proportional hazards models to examine the effect of paternal age on the first incidence of healthcare-recorded anorexia nervosa (AN) and all eating disorders (AED) occurring 1987-2009. Models were adjusted for sex, birth order, maternal age at childbirth, and maternal and paternal covariates including country of birth, highest education level, and lifetime psychiatric and criminal history. Even after adjustment for covariates including maternal age, advanced paternal age was associated with increased risk, and younger paternal age with decreased risk, of AN and AED. For example, the fully adjusted hazard ratio for the 45+ years (v. the 25-29 years) paternal age category was 1.32 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-1.53] for AN and 1.26 (95% CI 1.13-1.40) for AED. In this large, population-based cohort, paternal age at childbirth was positively associated with eating disorders in offspring, even after adjustment for potential confounders. Future research should further explore potential explanations for the association, including de novo mutations in the paternal germline.

  19. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  20. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  1. Contributions of maternal and paternal adiposity and smoking to adult offspring adiposity and cardiovascular risk: the Midspan Family Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, T S; Hart, C L; Haig, C; Logue, J; Upton, M N; Watt, G C M; Lean, M E J

    2015-11-02

    Obesity has some genetic basis but requires interaction with environmental factors for phenotypic expression. We examined contributions of gender-specific parental adiposity and smoking to adiposity and related cardiovascular risk in adult offspring. Cross-sectional general population survey. Scotland. 1456 of the 1477 first generation families in the Midspan Family Study: 2912 parents (aged 45-64 years surveyed between 1972 and 1976) who had 1025 sons and 1283 daughters, aged 30-59 years surveyed in 1996. Offspring body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), cardiometabolic risk (lipids, blood pressure and glucose) and cardiovascular disease as outcome measures, and parental BMI and smoking as determinants. All analyses adjusted for age, socioeconomic status and family clustering and offspring birth weight. Regression coefficients for BMI associations between father-son (0.30) and mother-daughter (0.33) were greater than father-daughter (0.23) or mother-son (0.22). Regression coefficient for the non-genetic, shared-environment or assortative-mating relationship between BMIs of fathers and mothers was 0.19. Heritability estimates for BMI were greatest among women with mothers who had BMI either obese parents, offspring with two obese parents had adjusted OR of 10.25 (95% CI 6.56 to 13.93) for having WC ≥102 cm for men, ≥88 cm women, 2.46 (95% CI 1.33 to 4.57) for metabolic syndrome and 3.03 (95% CI 1.55 to 5.91) for angina and/or myocardial infarct (pobesity and metabolic syndrome. A possible epigenetic mechanism linking maternal smoking to obesity and metabolic syndrome in offspring is proposed. Individuals with family histories of obesity should be targeted from an early age to prevent obesity and complications. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  2. Paternal involvement and fetal morbidity outcomes in HIV/AIDS: a population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alio, Amina P; Mbah, Alfred K; Shah, Krupa; August, Euna M; Dejoy, Sharon; Adegoke, Korede; Marty, Phillip J; Salihu, Hamisu M; Aliyu, Muktar H

    2015-01-01

    Prior research indicates that infants with absent fathers are vulnerable to unfavorable fetal birth outcomes. HIV is a recognized risk factor for adverse birth outcomes. However, the influence of paternal involvement on fetal morbidity outcomes in women with HIV remains poorly understood. Using linked hospital discharge data and vital statistics records for the state of Florida (1998-2007), the authors assessed the association between paternal involvement and fetal growth outcomes (i.e., low birth weight [LBW], very low birth weight [VLBW], preterm birth [PTB], very preterm birth [VPTB], and small for gestational age [SGA]) among HIV-positive mothers (N=4,719). Propensity score matching was used to match cases (absent fathers) to controls (fathers involved). Conditional logistic regression was employed to generate adjusted odds ratios (OR). Mothers of infants with absent fathers were more likely to be Black, younger (absent paternal involvement during pregnancy had elevated risks for adverse fetal outcomes (LBW: OR=1.30, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.05-1.60; VLBW: OR=1.72, 95% CI=1.05-2.82; PTB: OR=1.38, 95% CI=1.13-1.69; VPTB: OR=1.81, 95% CI=1.13-2.90). Absence of fathers increases the likelihood of adverse fetal morbidity outcomes in women with HIV infection. These findings underscore the importance of paternal involvement during pregnancy, especially as an important component of programs for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV. © The Author(s) 2013.

  3. Genotype Reconstruction of Paternity in European Lobsters (Homarus gammarus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charlie D Ellis

    Full Text Available Decapod crustaceans exhibit considerable variation in fertilisation strategies, ranging from pervasive single paternity to the near-ubiquitous presence of multiple paternity, and such knowledge of mating systems and behaviour are required for the informed management of commercially-exploited marine fisheries. We used genetic markers to assess the paternity of individual broods in the European lobster, Homarus gammarus, a species for which paternity structure is unknown. Using 13 multiplexed microsatellite loci, three of which are newly described in this study, we genotyped 10 eggs from each of 34 females collected from an Atlantic peninsula in the south-western United Kingdom. Single reconstructed paternal genotypes explained all observed progeny genotypes in each of the 34 egg clutches, and each clutch was fertilised by a different male. Simulations indicated that the probability of detecting multiple paternity was in excess of 95% if secondary sires account for at least a quarter of the brood, and in excess of 99% where additional sire success was approximately equal. Our results show that multiple paternal fertilisations are either absent, unusual, or highly skewed in favour of a single male among H. gammarus in this area. Potential mechanisms upholding single paternal fertilisation are discussed, along with the prospective utility of parentage assignments in evaluations of hatchery stocking and other fishery conservation approaches in light of this finding.

  4. Genotype Reconstruction of Paternity in European Lobsters (Homarus gammarus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Charlie D; Hodgson, David J; André, Carl; Sørdalen, Tonje K; Knutsen, Halvor; Griffiths, Amber G F

    2015-01-01

    Decapod crustaceans exhibit considerable variation in fertilisation strategies, ranging from pervasive single paternity to the near-ubiquitous presence of multiple paternity, and such knowledge of mating systems and behaviour are required for the informed management of commercially-exploited marine fisheries. We used genetic markers to assess the paternity of individual broods in the European lobster, Homarus gammarus, a species for which paternity structure is unknown. Using 13 multiplexed microsatellite loci, three of which are newly described in this study, we genotyped 10 eggs from each of 34 females collected from an Atlantic peninsula in the south-western United Kingdom. Single reconstructed paternal genotypes explained all observed progeny genotypes in each of the 34 egg clutches, and each clutch was fertilised by a different male. Simulations indicated that the probability of detecting multiple paternity was in excess of 95% if secondary sires account for at least a quarter of the brood, and in excess of 99% where additional sire success was approximately equal. Our results show that multiple paternal fertilisations are either absent, unusual, or highly skewed in favour of a single male among H. gammarus in this area. Potential mechanisms upholding single paternal fertilisation are discussed, along with the prospective utility of parentage assignments in evaluations of hatchery stocking and other fishery conservation approaches in light of this finding.

  5. Meiotic interstrand DNA damage escapes paternal repair and causes chromosomal aberrations in the zygote by maternal misrepair

    OpenAIRE

    Marchetti, Francesco; Bishop, Jack; Gingerich, John; Wyrobek, Andrew J.

    2015-01-01

    De novo point mutations and chromosomal structural aberrations (CSA) detected in offspring of unaffected parents show a preferential paternal origin with higher risk for older fathers. Studies in rodents suggest that heritable mutations transmitted from the father can arise from either paternal or maternal misrepair of damaged paternal DNA, and that the entire spermatogenic cycle can be at risk after mutagenic exposure. Understanding the susceptibility and mechanisms of transmission of patern...

  6. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without warning, and two- ... and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool is supported in part ...

  7. The influences of parental divorce and maternal-versus-paternal alcohol abuse on offspring lifetime suicide attempt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Ronald G; Alonzo, Dana; Hu, Mei-Chen; Hasin, Deborah S

    2017-05-01

    Research indicates that parental divorce and parental alcohol abuse independently increase likelihood of offspring lifetime suicide attempt. However, when experienced together, only parental alcohol abuse significantly increased odds of suicide attempt. It is unclear to what extent differences in the effect of maternal versus paternal alcohol use exist on adult offspring lifetime suicide attempt risk. This study examined the influences of parental divorce and maternal-paternal histories of alcohol problems on adult offspring lifetime suicide attempt. The sample consisted of participants from the 2001-2002 National Epidemiological Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions. The simultaneous effect of childhood or adolescent parental divorce and maternal and paternal history of alcohol problems on offspring lifetime suicide attempt was estimated using a logistic regression model with an interaction term for demographics and parental history of other emotional and behavioural problems. Parental divorce and maternal-paternal alcohol problems interacted to differentially influence the likelihood of offspring lifetime suicide attempt. Experiencing parental divorce and either maternal or paternal alcohol problems nearly doubled the likelihood of suicide attempt. Divorce and history of alcohol problems for both parents tripled the likelihood. Individuals who experienced parental divorce as children or adolescents and who have a parent who abuses alcohol are at elevated risk for lifetime suicide attempt. These problem areas should become a routine part of assessment to better identify those at risk for lifetime suicide attempt and to implement early and targeted intervention to decrease such risk. [Thompson RG Jr,Alonzo D, Hu M-C, Hasin DS. The influences of parental divorce and maternal-versus-paternal alcohol abuse on offspringlifetime suicide attempt. Drug Alcohol Rev 2017;36:408-414]. © 2016 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  8. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-11-13

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  9. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  10. Toxicological risk assessment. Volume 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clayson, D.B.; Krewski, D.; Munro, I.

    1985-01-01

    This book contains the following chapters: Epidemiological Methods for Assessment of Human Cancer Risk. Assessment of Human Exposure to Environmental Contaminants with Special Reference to Cancer. Influence of Nutrition, Immunologic Status, and Other Factors on Development of Cancer. Significance of Benefits in Regulatory Decision Making. Measuring Health Benefits. Food Safety Regulations. Case Study-Asbestos. Vinyl Chloride - A Cancer Case Study. An Integrated Approach to the Study of Formaldehyde Carcinogenicity in Rats and Mice. Determination of Human Risk in Regulating Polychlorinated Biphenyls Saccharin - A Bitter-Sweet Case.

  11. Caries Risk Assessment Item Importance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaffee, B.W.; Featherstone, J.D.B.; Gansky, S.A.; Cheng, J.; Zhan, L.

    2016-01-01

    Caries risk assessment (CRA) is widely recommended for dental caries management. Little is known regarding how practitioners use individual CRA items to determine risk and which individual items independently predict clinical outcomes in children younger than 6 y. The objective of this study was to assess the relative importance of pediatric CRA items in dental providers’ decision making regarding patient risk and in association with clinically evident caries, cross-sectionally and longitudinally. CRA information was abstracted retrospectively from electronic patient records of children initially aged 6 to 72 mo at a university pediatric dentistry clinic (n = 3,810 baseline; n = 1,315 with follow-up). The 17-item CRA form included caries risk indicators, caries protective items, and clinical indicators. Conditional random forests classification trees were implemented to identify and assign variable importance to CRA items independently associated with baseline high-risk designation, baseline evident tooth decay, and follow-up evident decay. Thirteen individual CRA items, including all clinical indicators and all but 1 risk indicator, were independently and statistically significantly associated with student/resident providers’ caries risk designation. Provider-assigned baseline risk category was strongly associated with follow-up decay, which increased from low (20.4%) to moderate (30.6%) to high/extreme risk patients (68.7%). Of baseline CRA items, before adjustment, 12 were associated with baseline decay and 7 with decay at follow-up; however, in the conditional random forests models, only the clinical indicators (evident decay, dental plaque, and recent restoration placement) and 1 risk indicator (frequent snacking) were independently and statistically significantly associated with future disease, for which baseline evident decay was the strongest predictor. In this predominantly high-risk population under caries-preventive care, more individual CRA items

  12. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  13. Phytosanitary risk assessment of composts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Termorshuizen, A.J.; Rijn, van E.; Blok, W.J.

    2005-01-01

    Assessment of phytosanitary risks associated with application of composts in agriculture generally has focused on the sanitation (self-heating) phase during composting when most plant pathogens are inactivated due to lethal temperatures. However, a few plant pathogens are heat resistant and they may

  14. Where You Live: Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.

  15. Advanced paternal age is associated with impaired neurocognitive outcomes during infancy and childhood.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sukanta Saha

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Advanced paternal age (APA is associated with an increased risk of neurodevelopmental disorders such as autism and schizophrenia, as well as with dyslexia and reduced intelligence. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between paternal age and performance on neurocognitive measures during infancy and childhood. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A sample of singleton children (n = 33,437 was drawn from the US Collaborative Perinatal Project. The outcome measures were assessed at 8 mo, 4 y, and 7 y (Bayley scales, Stanford Binet Intelligence Scale, Graham-Ernhart Block Sort Test, Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children, Wide Range Achievement Test. The main analyses examined the relationship between neurocognitive measures and paternal or maternal age when adjusted for potential confounding factors. Advanced paternal age showed significant associations with poorer scores on all of the neurocognitive measures apart from the Bayley Motor score. The findings were broadly consistent in direction and effect size at all three ages. In contrast, advanced maternal age was generally associated with better scores on these same measures. CONCLUSIONS: The offspring of older fathers show subtle impairments on tests of neurocognitive ability during infancy and childhood. In light of secular trends related to delayed fatherhood, the clinical implications and the mechanisms underlying these findings warrant closer scrutiny.

  16. Paternal history of diabetes mellitus and hypertension affects the prevalence and phenotype of PCOS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Chen; Zhang, Haolin; Zhao, Yue; Li, Rong; Qiao, Jie

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of the present study is to determine if paternal or maternal history of diabetes mellitus (DM) and hypertension (HT) contributes to the prevalence and phenotype of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). We performed an epidemiologic study about PCOS from four districts in Beijing, China, between 2008 and 2009. Parental histories of DM and HT were collected, and the basic characteristics and serum indices of 123 PCOS patients and 718 non-PCOS controls were tested. The prevalence of a parental history of DM and HT was significantly higher in PCOS patients than non-PCOS women (17.1 % vs. 9.2 % and 42.3 % vs. 26.0 %, P PCOS and non-PCOS patients (odds ratio (OR) = 3.42, 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 1.69-6.91; OR = 2.50, 95 % CI = 1.58-3.93, respectively). A paternal history of both DM and HT was significantly associated with sex hormone-binding globulin, fasting plasma glucose, and fasting insulin levels, the free androgen index, and the homeostatic model assessment-insulin resistance in PCOS patients (P PCOS. PCOS patients with a positive paternal history of both DM and HT have an adverse endocrine and metabolic profile. A paternal history of DM and HT poses a risk to PCOS.

  17. Advanced paternal age is associated with impaired neurocognitive outcomes during infancy and childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Sukanta; Barnett, Adrian G; Foldi, Claire; Burne, Thomas H; Eyles, Darryl W; Buka, Stephen L; McGrath, John J

    2009-03-10

    Advanced paternal age (APA) is associated with an increased risk of neurodevelopmental disorders such as autism and schizophrenia, as well as with dyslexia and reduced intelligence. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between paternal age and performance on neurocognitive measures during infancy and childhood. A sample of singleton children (n = 33,437) was drawn from the US Collaborative Perinatal Project. The outcome measures were assessed at 8 mo, 4 y, and 7 y (Bayley scales, Stanford Binet Intelligence Scale, Graham-Ernhart Block Sort Test, Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children, Wide Range Achievement Test). The main analyses examined the relationship between neurocognitive measures and paternal or maternal age when adjusted for potential confounding factors. Advanced paternal age showed significant associations with poorer scores on all of the neurocognitive measures apart from the Bayley Motor score. The findings were broadly consistent in direction and effect size at all three ages. In contrast, advanced maternal age was generally associated with better scores on these same measures. The offspring of older fathers show subtle impairments on tests of neurocognitive ability during infancy and childhood. In light of secular trends related to delayed fatherhood, the clinical implications and the mechanisms underlying these findings warrant closer scrutiny.

  18. Justification of Paternalism in Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordenbo, Sven Erik

    1986-01-01

    A systematic presentation is given of the theories of justification normally applied to paternalistic acts: (1) pseudo-paternalism, (2) consequentialism, and (3) consent-based theories. The validity of four common arguments for educational paternalism is discussed: education is necessary, children are ignorant, children are unable to choose, and…

  19. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  20. La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.

    2009-12-01

    Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree

  1. Suicide Risk Assessment in Adolescents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Ida Skytte; Larsen, Kim Juul; Horwood, John

    2016-01-01

    Background: Assessment and screening are often the first step in planning interventions to help adolescents at risk of suicide. Causes of suicidal thoughts and behavior are multifaceted and it is important for clinical work that assessment reflects this complexity. Aim(s): To investigate whether...... a general psychological "Resilience Scale for Adolescents" (READ) is associated with a validated suicide rating scale (C-SSRS). Method: An observational study of self-reported suicidality (C-SSRS), psychological distress (K10) and resiliency (READ) in three adolescent samples: suicide clinic (N=147...

  2. Apollo 13 Risk Assessment Revisited

    OpenAIRE

    Bukovics, István

    2007-01-01

    Fault tree methodology is the most widespread risk assessment tool by which one is able to predict - in principle - the outcome of an event whenever it is reduced to simpler ones by the logic operations conjunction and disjunction according to the basics of Boolean algebra. The object of this work is to present an algorithm by which, using the corresponding computer code, one is able to predict - in practice - the outcome of an event whenever its fault tree is given in the u...

  3. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  4. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  5. Survey of mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, risk assessment tools and positive risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downes, C; Gill, A; Doyle, L; Morrissey, J; Higgins, A

    2016-04-01

    WHAT IS KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT?: Risk assessment and safety planning are a core aspect of the role of the mental health nurse. Conflicting views exist on the value of risk assessment tools. Few studies have examined mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk, including use of tools and the role of positive risk in recovery. WHAT THE PAPER ADDS TO EXISTING KNOWLEDGE?: Mental health nurses view risk assessment as a core dimension of their role and not merely an exercise to fulfil organizational clinical safety and governance obligations. The majority of nurses hold positive attitudes towards therapeutic or positive risk, and consider creative risk taking as vital to people's recovery. The majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional decision making, however, some are concerned that tools may negatively impact upon therapeutic relationships. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE?: Ongoing education on the use of risk assessment tools is required to minimize views that their use is incompatible with therapeutic engagement, and to enable nurses to develop confidence to engage with positive risk and to allow service users make decisions and take responsibility. Introduction Risk assessment and safety planning are considered core components of the role of the mental health nurse; however, little is known about nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, use of tools to assess risk or therapeutic risk taking. Aim This study aimed to explore mental health nurses' attitudes towards completing risk assessments, use of tools as an aid, and therapeutic or positive risk. Method An anonymous survey which included 13 attitudinal statements, rated on a five-point Likert scale, was completed by 381 mental health nurses working in adult services in Ireland. Findings Findings indicate strong support for the practice of risk assessment in mental health practice. The vast majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional

  6. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  7. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  8. Paternal physical exercise improves spatial learning ability by enhancing hippocampal neuroplasticity in male pups born from obese maternal rats

    OpenAIRE

    Park, Hye-Sang; Kim, Tae-Woon

    2017-01-01

    Maternal obesity exerts negative effects on cognitive function and behavior of the offspring. In the present study, we assessed the effects of paternal physical exercise on spatial learning ability in relation with hippocampal neuroplasticity in the rat pups born from the obese maternal rats. There were four experimental groups: paternal nonexercised male pups from normal maternal rats, paternal exercised male pups from normal maternal rats, paternal nonexercised male pups from obese maternal...

  9. How attractive is the girl next door? An assessment of spatial mate acquisition and paternity in the solitary Cape dune mole-rat, Bathyergus suillus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy C Bray

    Full Text Available Behavioural observations of reproduction and mate choice in wild fossorial rodents are extremely limited and consequently indirect methods are typically used to infer mating strategies. We use a combination of morphological, reproductive, spatial, and genetic data to investigate the reproductive strategy of a solitary endemic species, the Cape dune mole-rat Bathyergus suillus. These data provide the first account on the population dynamics of this species. Marked sexual dimorphism was apparent with males being both significantly larger and heavier than females. Of all females sampled 36% had previously reproduced and 12% were pregnant at the time of capture. Post-partum sex ratio was found to be significantly skewed in favour of females. The paternity of fifteen litters (n = 37 was calculated, with sires assigned to progeny using both categorical and full probability methods, and including a distance function. The maximum distance between progeny and a putative sire was determined as 2149 m with males moving between sub-populations. We suggest that above-ground movement should not be ignored in the consideration of mate acquisition behaviour of subterranean mammals. Estimated levels of multiple paternity were shown to be potentially as high as 26%, as determined using sibship and sire assignment methods. Such high levels of multiple paternity have not been found in other solitary mole-rat species. The data therefore suggest polyandry with no evidence as yet for polygyny.

  10. Paternal occupational exposure to electro-magnetic fields as a risk factor for cancer in children and young adults: a case-control study from the North of England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, Mark S; Hammal, Donna M; Dorak, M Tevfik; McNally, Richard J Q; Parker, Louise

    2007-09-01

    Numerous studies have implied that paternal occupational exposures, in particular electromagnetic fields (EMF) and ionizing radiation, may be involved in the etiology of childhood cancers. We investigated whether an association exists between paternal occupations at birth involving such exposures and cancer risk in offspring, using data from the Northern Region Young Persons' Malignant Disease Registry (NRYPMDR). Cases (n=4,723) were matched, on sex and year of birth, to controls from two independent sources: (i) all other patients from the NRYPMDR with a different cancer, (ii) 100 cancer-free individuals per case from the Cumbrian Births Database. An occupational exposure matrix was used to assign individuals to exposure groups. There was an increased risk of leukemia among the offspring of men employed in occupations likely to be associated with EMF or radiation exposures (OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.02-1.69), particularly in males aged less than 6 years (OR 1.81, 95% 1.19-2.75). No significant association was seen in females. Increased risks were also seen for chondrosarcoma (OR 8.7, 95% CI 1.55-49.4) and renal carcinoma (OR 6.75, 95% CI 1.73-26.0). These associations were consistent between control groups and remained after adjustment for socio-economic status. This large case-control study identified a significantly increased risk of leukemia among the offspring of men likely to have been occupationally exposed to EMF, with differing associations between males and females. Increased risks of chondrosarcoma and renal carcinoma were also seen, although based on smaller numbers. Further detailed investigations in this area are required to understand this association. Copyright (c) 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  11. Paternal Care May Influence Perceptions of Paternal Resemblance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony A. Volk

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Father-child resemblance is increasingly attracting attention from researchers interested in studying paternal investment. The current study sought to determine whether a quasi-experimental infant massage intervention would increase father's perceptions of resemblance. The study included a dozen fathers in each of two groups: the first received an intensive series of lessons on infant-father massage along with their infants, while the second group served as a neutral control. We failed to find significant correlations between paternal investment and resemblance, but we found that fathers who participated in the infant massage intervention reported significantly larger post-study ratings of resemblance and lower ratings of paternal stress. This suggests that the relationship between father-child resemblance and paternal investment may be bidirectional.

  12. Paternal postpartum depression: what health care providers should know.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musser, Anna K; Ahmed, Azza H; Foli, Karen J; Coddington, Jennifer A

    2013-01-01

    Paternal postpartum depression (PPD) is a clinically significant problem for families that is currently underscreened, underdiagnosed, and undertreated. Maternal PPD is a well-known condition and has been extensively researched. In comparison, PPD in fathers and its potential effects on the family are not widely recognized. Studies have shown the importance of optimal mental health in fathers during the postpartum period. Negative effects of paternal PPD affect marital/partner relationships, infant bonding, and child development. To promote optimal health for parents and children, pediatric nurse practitioners must stay up to date on this topic. This article discusses the relationship of paternal PPD to maternal PPD; the consequences, signs, and symptoms; and the pediatric nurse practitioner's role in assessing and managing paternal PPD. Copyright © 2013 National Association of Pediatric Nurse Practitioners. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Sperm competition mechanisms, confidence of paternity, and the evolution of paternal care in the golden egg bug (Phyllomorpha laciniata).

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-González, Francisco; Núñez, Yolanda; Ponz, Fernando; Roldán, Eduardo R S; Gomendio, Montserrat

    2003-05-01

    Theoretical models predict how paternal effort should vary depending on confidence of paternity and on the trade-offs between present and future reproduction. In this study we examine patterns of sperm precedence in Phyllomorpha laciniata and how confidence of paternity influences the willingness of males to carry eggs. Female golden egg bugs show a flexible pattern of oviposition behavior, which results in some eggs being carried by adults (mainly males) and some being laid on plants, where mortality rates are very high. Adults are more vulnerable to predators when carrying eggs; thus, it has been suggested that males should only accept eggs if there are chances that at least some of the eggs will be their true genetic offspring. We determined the confidence of paternity for naturally occurring individuals and its variation with the time. Paternity of eggs fertilized by the last males to mate with females previously mated in the field has been determined using amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs). The exclusion probability was 98%, showing that AFLP markers are suitable for paternity assignment. Sperm mixing seems the most likely mechanism of sperm competition, because the last male to copulate with field females sires an average of 43% of the eggs laid during the next five days. More importantly, the proportion of eggs sired does not change significantly during that period. We argue that intermediate levels of paternity can select for paternal care in this system because: (1) benefits of care in terms of offspring survival are very high; (2) males have nothing to gain from decreasing their parental effort in a given reproductive event because sperm mixing makes it difficult for males to reach high paternity levels and males are left with no cues to assess paternity; (3) males cannot chose to care for their offspring exclusively because they can neither discriminate their own eggs, nor can they predict when their own eggs will be produced; and (4) males

  14. Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vatanpour, Shabnam; Hrudey, Steve E; Dinu, Irina

    2015-08-14

    The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario-Tainted blood transfusion infection risk-That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making.

  15. [Influence of paternal age in schizophrenia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubert, A; Szöke, A; Leboyer, M; Schürhoff, F

    2011-06-01

    Schizophrenia is an aetiologically heterogeneous syndrome, with a strong genetic component. Despite a reduced fertility in this disorder, its prevalence is maintained and could be explained by de novo genetic mutations. Advanced paternal age (APA) is a major source of new mutations in human beings and could thus be associated with an increased risk of developing schizophrenia in offspring. New mutations related to APA have been implicated as a cause of sporadic cases in several autosomal dominant diseases and also in neurodevelopmental diseases, autism, intellectual disabilities, and social functioning. The aim of the present study was to summarize the results of studies investigating the role of APA, and to discuss some interpretations. All relevant studies were identified through the National Library of Medicine (PubMed(®) database). Keywords used for research were "age" and "schizophrenia" linked to "paternal or father". We have identified and analysed eight cohort studies, five case-control studies, two meta-analyses, and one review concerning different father's mutations potentially transmitted, two studies comparing paternal age at conception between sporadic versus familial cases of schizophrenia. All studies selected have been published between 2000 and 2009. After controlling for several confounding factors including maternal age, the relative risk of schizophrenia increased from 1.84 to 4.62 in offspring of fathers with an older age of fatherhood. Mother's age showed no significant effects after adjusting for paternal age. There was a significant association between paternal age and risk of developing schizophrenia, there was a weaker association with psychosis. The results of these different studies are confirmed by two recent meta-analyses which found an increased risk of schizophrenia in offspring of fathers older than 35 years. Two main hypotheses could explain these results. The first one is based on the presence of new mutations in the

  16. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  17. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liuzzo, Gaetano; Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-01-18

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens' involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication) are discussed.

  18. Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Apel, H; Thieken, A. H; Merz, B; Blöschl, G

    2004-01-01

    Flood disaster mitigation strategies should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk combined with a thorough investigation of the uncertainties associated with the risk assessment procedure...

  19. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  20. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  1. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  2. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  3. UAV Swarm Operational Risk Assessment System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    distribution is unlimited UAV SWARM OPERATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT SYSTEM by Team CQ Alpha Cohort 311-141A September 2015 Project Advisors: Gregory......need for a UAV Swarm Risk Assessment Tool and how it can assist the Navy’s decision makers in assessing risk of UAV swarm threats in littoral

  4. Could ethanol-induced alterations in the expression of glutamate transporters in testes contribute to the effect of paternal drinking on the risk of abnormalities in the offspring?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashem, Mohammed Abul; Lee, Aven; Pow, David V; Šerý, Omar; Balcar, Vladimir J

    2017-01-01

    It has been known that a preconception paternal alcoholism impacts adversely on the offspring but the mechanism of the effect is uncertain. Several findings suggest that there are signalling systems in testis that are analogous to those known to be altered by alcoholism in brain. We propose that chronic alcohol affects these systems in a manner similar to that in brain. Specifically, we hypothesise that excessive alcohol may disturb glutamatergic-like signalling in testis by increasing expression of the glutamate transporter GLAST (EAAT1). We discuss ways how to test the hypothesis as well as potential significance of some of the tests as tools in the diagnostics of chronic alcoholism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Risk assessment of silver nanoparticles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shipelin, V. A.; Gmoshinski, I. V.; Khotimchenko, S. A.

    2015-11-01

    Nanoparticles of metallic silver (Ag) are among the most widely used products of nanotechnology. Nanosized colloidal silver (NCS) is presented in many kinds of production as solutions of particles with diameter less than 100 nm. NCS is used in a variety of fields, including food supplements, medicines, cosmetics, packaging materials, disinfectants, water filters, and many others. Problems of toxicity and related safety of NCS for humans and environmental systems are recently overestimated basing on data of numerous toxicological studies in vitro and in vivo. The article discusses the results of current studies in recent years and the data of author's own experiments on studying the safety of NCS, that allows to move on to risk assessment of this nanomaterial presented in consumer products and environmental samples.

  6. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  7. From Hazard to Risk - Assessing the Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Madsen, C.B.; Houben, G.; Hattersley, S.; Crevel, R.W.R.; Remington, B.C.; Baumert, J.L.

    2013-01-01

    Regulatory thresholds for allergenic foods have not yet been developed. This means that public and industrial risk managers do not have regulatory thresholds to decide if a content or level of contamination is acceptable or not. For a long time, data have been inadequate to define safe thresholds

  8. Bilastine: an environmental risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucero, María Luisa; Peither, Armin; Ledo, Francisco

    2015-10-01

    Bilastine is a new oral selective, non-sedating histamine H1 antagonist for the symptomatic treatment of allergic rhinoconjunctivitis and urticaria. The European Medicines Agency requires an Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for all novel medicines for human use. To calculate the bilastine predicted environmental concentration in surface water (PECsw; phase I ERA), and to determine the effects of bilastine on aquatic systems (phase II [tier A]). Bilastine PECsw was calculated using the maximum daily dosage (20 mg), assuming that all administered bilastine was released into the aquatic environment. A persistence, bioaccumulation and toxicity assessment was conducted using the log Kow from the molecular structure. In phase II (tier A), a ready biodegradability test was performed, and bilastine's potential toxicity to various aquatic and sediment-dwelling micro-organisms was evaluated. Bilastine PECSW was calculated as 0.1 μg L(-1), and the compound was not readily biodegradable. Bilastine had no significant effects on Chironomus riparius midges, or on the respiration rate of activated sludge. For green algae, the bilastine no observed effect concentration (NOEC) was 22 mg L(-1); bilastine had no effect on zebra fish development, or on the reproduction rate of daphnids. Bilastine NOEC values against zebra fish, algae, daphnids, and aerobic organisms in activated sludge were at least 130 000-fold greater than the calculated PECSW value. No environmental concerns exist from bilastine use in patients with allergic rhinoconjunctivitis or urticaria.

  9. Gender differences in risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine R. Harris

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Across many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women. To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference, 657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various risky activities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, and social, and reported their perceptions of (1 probability of negative outcomes, (2 severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3 enjoyment expected from the risky activities. Women's greater perceived likelihood of negative outcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lower propensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains. Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in the gambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensity towards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with high potential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to other domains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain. This gender difference was partially mediated by women's more optimistic judgments of the probability of good outcomes and of

  10. Radiological safety and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunter, P.H.; Barg, D.C.; Baird, R.D.; Card, D.H.; de Souza, F.; Elder, J.; Felthauser, K.; Jensen, C.; Winkler, V.

    1982-02-01

    A brief radiological safety and risk assessment of a nuclear power generation center with an adjacent on-site waste disposal facility at a specific site in the State of Utah is presented. The assessment was conducted to assist in determining the feasibility and practicality of developing a nuclear energy center (NEC) in Utah consisting of nine 1250 MWe nuclear pressurized water reactor (PWR) electrical generating units arranged in 3 clusters of 3 units each known as triads. The site selected for this conceptual study is in the Horse Bench area about 15 miles directly south of the town of Green River, Utah. The radiological issues included direct radiation exposures to on-site workers and the off-site population, release of radioactive material, and effects of these releases for both normal operations and accidental occurrences. The basic finding of this study is that the concept of an NEC in the Green River area, specifically at the Horse Bench site, is radiologically feasible.

  11. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  12. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  13. European risk assessment methodology for critical infrastructures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaver, M.H.A.; Luiijf, H.A.M.; Nieuwenhuijs, A.H.; Cavenne, F.; Ulisse, A.; Bridegeman, G.

    2008-01-01

    Most risk assessment methodologies aim at the risk at the level of an individual organization or company. The European Union commissioned a study to define the elements for a uniform and scalable risk assessment methodology which takes into account critical infrastructure dependencies across

  14. Paternal care decreases foraging activity and body condition, but does not impose survival costs to caring males in a Neotropical arachnid.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo S Requena

    Full Text Available Exclusive paternal care is the rarest form of parental investment in nature and theory predicts that the maintenance of this behavior depends on the balance between costs and benefits to males. Our goal was to assess costs of paternal care in the harvestman Iporangaia pustulosa, for which the benefits of this behavior in terms of egg survival have already been demonstrated. We evaluated energetic costs and mortality risks associated to paternal egg-guarding in the field. We quantified foraging activity of males and estimated how their body condition is influenced by the duration of the caring period. Additionally, we conducted a one-year capture-mark-recapture study and estimated apparent survival probabilities of caring and non-caring males to assess potential survival costs of paternal care. Our results indicate that caring males forage less frequently than non-caring individuals (males and females and that their body condition deteriorates over the course of the caring period. Thus, males willing to guard eggs may provide to females a fitness-enhancing gift of cost-free care of their offspring. Caring males, however, did not show lower survival probabilities when compared to both non-caring males and females. Reduction in mortality risks as a result of remaining stationary, combined with the benefits of improving egg survival, may have played an important and previously unsuspected role favoring the evolution of paternal care. Moreover, males exhibiting paternal care could also provide an honest signal of their quality as offspring defenders, and thus female preference for caring males could be responsible for maintaining the trait.

  15. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  16. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahm-Crites, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Germantown, MD (United States). Washington Operations Office

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  17. Risk Assessment Update: Russian Segment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Eric; Lear, Dana; Hyde, James; Bjorkman, Michael; Hoffman, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    BUMPER-II version 1.95j source code was provided to RSC-E- and Khrunichev at January 2012 MMOD TIM in Moscow. MEMCxP and ORDEM 3.0 environments implemented as external data files. NASA provided a sample ORDEM 3.0 g."key" & "daf" environment file set for demonstration and benchmarking BUMPER -II v1.95j installation at the Jan-12 TIM. ORDEM 3.0 has been completed and is currently in beta testing. NASA will provide a preliminary set of ORDEM 3.0 ".key" & ".daf" environment files for the years 2012 through 2028. Bumper output files produced using the new ORDEM 3.0 data files are intended for internal use only, not for requirements verification. Output files will contain these words ORDEM FILE DESCRIPTION = PRELIMINARY VERSION: not for production. The projectile density term in many BUMPER-II ballistic limit equations will need to be updated. Cube demo scripts and output files delivered at the Jan-12 TIM have been updated for the new ORDEM 3.0 data files. Risk assessment results based on ORDEM 3.0 and MEM will be presented for the Russian Segment (RS) of ISS.

  18. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

    2009-01-01

    A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...... the area forward. Three possible approaches to safety assessment and risk assessment for allergenic foods were presented and discussed: safety assessment using NOAEL/LOAEL and uncertainty factors, safety assessment using Benchmark Dose and Margin of Exposure (MoE), and risk assessment using probabilistic...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic...

  19. Assessing Human Health Risk from Pesticides

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

  20. Pesticide Science and Assessing Pesticide Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

  1. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  2. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  3. [Application of three risk assessment models in occupational health risk assessment of dimethylformamide].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Z J; Xu, B; Jiang, H; Zheng, M; Zhang, M; Zhao, W J; Cheng, J

    2016-08-20

    Objective: To investigate the application of United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inhalation risk assessment model, Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model, and occupational hazards risk assessment index method in occupational health risk in enterprises using dimethylformamide (DMF) in a certain area in Jiangsu, China, and to put forward related risk control measures. Methods: The industries involving DMF exposure in Jiangsu province were chosen as the evaluation objects in 2013 and three risk assessment models were used in the evaluation. EPA inhalation risk assessment model: HQ=EC/RfC; Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model: Risk= (HR×ER) 1/2; Occupational hazards risk assessment index=2Health effect level×2exposure ratio×Operation condition level. Results: The results of hazard quotient (HQ>1) from EPA inhalation risk assessment model suggested that all the workshops (dry method, wet method and printing) and work positions (pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting) were high risk. The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model indicated that the workshop risk level of dry method, wet method and printing were 3.5 (high) , 3.5 (high) and 2.8 (general) , and position risk level of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 4 (high) , 4 (high) , 2.8 (general) , 2.8 (general) and 2.8 (general) . The results of occupational hazards risk assessment index method demonstrated that the position risk index of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 42 (high) , 33 (high) , 23 (middle) , 21 (middle) and 22 (middle) . The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model and occupational hazards risk assessment index method were similar, while EPA inhalation risk assessment model indicated all the workshops and positions were high risk. Conclusion: The occupational hazards risk assessment index method fully considers health effects, exposure, and operating conditions and

  4. Early maternal and paternal bonding, childhood physical abuse and adult psychopathic personality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Y; Raine, A; Chan, F; Venables, P H; Mednick, S A

    2010-06-01

    A significant gap in the literature on risk factors for psychopathy is the relative lack of research on parental bonding.MethodThis study examines the cross-sectional relationship between maternal and paternal bonding, childhood physical abuse and psychopathic personality at age 28 years in a community sample of 333 males and females. It also assesses prospectively whether children separated from their parents in the first 3 years of life are more likely to have a psychopathic-like personality 25 years later. Hierarchical regression analyses indicated that: (1) poor parental bonding (lack of maternal care and low paternal overprotection) and childhood physical abuse were both associated with a psychopathic personality; (2) parental bonding was significantly associated with psychopathic personality after taking into account sex, social adversity, ethnicity and abuse; (3) those separated from parents in the first 3 years of life were particularly characterized by low parental bonding and a psychopathic personality in adulthood; and (4) the deviant behavior factor of psychopathy was more related to lack of maternal care whereas the emotional detachment factor was related to both lack of maternal care and paternal overprotection. Findings draw attention to the importance of different components of early bonding in relation to adult psychopathy, and may have potential implications for early intervention and prevention of psychopathy.

  5. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment: A Methodological Comparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving; Christensen, Frans Møller; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2001-01-01

    Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment are two different tools in environmental management. The paper identifies harmonies, discrepancies and relations between the two tools exemplified by the risk assessment principles of the European Commission (EC) and the LCA method ‘EDIP’ (En......-vironmental Design of Industrial Products) developed in Denmark, respectively. A very important feature of LCA is the relative assessment due to the use of a functional unit. Risk assessment on the other hand is an absolute assessment, which may require very specific and detailed information on e.g. the exposure...

  6. Consistent paternity skew through ontogeny in Peron's tree frog (Litoria peronii.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig D H Sherman

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A large number of studies in postcopulatory sexual selection use paternity success as a proxy for fertilization success. However, selective mortality during embryonic development can lead to skews in paternity in situations of polyandry and sperm competition. Thus, when assessment of paternity fails to incorporate mortality skews during early ontogeny, this may interfere with correct interpretation of results and subsequent evolutionary inference. In a previous series of in vitro sperm competition experiments with amphibians (Litoria peronii, we showed skewed paternity patterns towards males more genetically similar to the female. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here we use in vitro fertilizations and sperm competition trials to test if this pattern of paternity of fully developed tadpoles reflects patterns of paternity at fertilization and if paternity skews changes during embryonic development. We show that there is no selective mortality through ontogeny and that patterns of paternity of hatched tadpoles reflects success of competing males in sperm competition at fertilization. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: While this study shows that previous inferences of fertilization success from paternity data are valid for this species, rigorous testing of these assumptions is required to ensure that differential embryonic mortality does not confound estimations of true fertilization success.

  7. Promiscuity, paternity and personality in the great tit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick, Samantha C; Chapman, Joanne R; Dugdale, Hannah L; Quinn, John L; Sheldon, Ben C

    2012-05-07

    Understanding causes of variation in promiscuity within populations remain a major challenge. While most studies have focused on quantifying fitness costs and benefits of promiscuous behaviour, an alternative possibility--that variation in promiscuity within populations is maintained because of linkage with other traits-has received little attention. Here, we examine whether promiscuity in male and female great tits (Parus major)--quantified as extra-pair paternity (EPP) within and between nests--is associated with variation in a well-documented personality trait: exploration behaviour in a novel environment. Exploration behaviour has been shown to correlate with activity levels, risk-taking and boldness, and these are behaviours that may plausibly influence EPP. Exploration behaviour correlated positively with paternity gained outside the social pair among males in our population, but there was also a negative correlation with paternity in the social nest. Hence, while variation in male personality predicted the relative importance of paternity gain within and outside the pair bond, total paternity gained was unrelated to exploration behaviour. We found evidence that males paired with bold females were more likely to sire extra-pair young. Our data thus demonstrate a link between personality and promiscuity, with no net effects on reproductive success, suggesting personality-dependent mating tactics, in contrast with traditional adaptive explanations for promiscuity.

  8. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  9. Preconception risk assessment of infertile couples

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nekuei, Nafisehsadat; Kazemi, Ashraf; Ehsanpur, Soheila; Beigi, Nastaran Mohammad Ali

    2013-01-01

    With regard to the importance of preconception conditions in maternal health and fertility, preconception risk assessment makes treatment trends and pregnancy outcome more successful among infertile couples...

  10. Paternity after vasectomy with two previous semen analyses without spermatozoa

    OpenAIRE

    Lucon, Marcos; Lucon, Antonio Marmo; Pasqualoto, Fabio Firmbach; Srougi, Miguel

    2007-01-01

    CONTEXT: The risk of paternity after vasectomy is rare but still exists. Overall failure to achieve sterility after vasectomy occurs in 0.2 to 5.3% of patients due to technical failure or recanalization. The objective of this report was to describe a rare but notable case of proven paternity in which the semen analyses had not given evidence of spermatozoa. CASE REPORT: A 44-year-old vasectomized man whose semen analyses had shown azoospermia became a father four years after sterilization. Bl...

  11. [Development and application of fracture risk assessments].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Toshitaka

    2012-06-01

    Definition of osteoporosis by BMD T-score has been accepted globally. However, the age-dependent changes in BMD values differ on the different sites for measurements and the sensitivity of BMD to predict the risk of osteoporotic fracture, assessed by the risk gradient value, is as small as 1.7. Reportedly, WHO Fracture Risk Assessment (FRAX®) tool to compute 10-year probabilities of osteoporotic fracture, is sensitive enough to select the high fracture risk subjects with the risk gradient value of 2.57 - 2.77 in Japanese men and women. The combination of the three major risk factors such as age, BMD and prevalent fractures, when both morphometric spine and clinical non-spine fracture are included, represents the value of 2.49 - 2.71. Radiographic assessment of prevalent vertebral fracture, along with FRAX®evaluation, seems to be important in assessing the fracture risk in Japanese subjects.

  12. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    Science.gov (United States)

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  13. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  14. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, Levi D.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Anderson, Jamie D.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Townsley, Edwin S.; Harrison, Alan; Pruitt, Tom

    2009-04-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios.

  15. Paternal effort related to experimentally manipulated paternity of male collared flycatchers

    OpenAIRE

    Sheldon, B. C.; Ellegren, H.

    1998-01-01

    The way that variation in paternity affects the optimal level of paternal effort has been a contentious issue, both in terms of theory and the empirical data needed to test competing theories. Clarification of the theoretical issues has led to the prediction that a reduction in paternal effort should only be expected when (i) there are substantial costs of paternal care and (ii) males have available some cue to their share of paternity in the current brood. Previous work on the collared flyca...

  16. Risk assessment for industrial safety engineers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Nae U; Lee, Ji U; Jeon, Seong Gyun; Lee, Yeong Sun

    1997-02-15

    This book deals with risk assessment and dangerous material of definition cases and industrial disaster, risk assessment of summary, ways of assessment and effect model, material safety data sheet system such as management, writing skill and use, product and storage of dangerous material like chemical reaction of homogeneous catalysis, harmfulness of material, corrosion and anti corrosion like crevice corrosion and erosion corrosion and range, classification, application of safety assessment.

  17. Maternal and paternal imprisonment in the stress process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Holly; Hagan, John

    2013-05-01

    Parental incarceration is now prevalent in community samples (e.g., with 11% of children reporting paternal imprisonment and 3% reporting maternal imprisonment in a national sample), pointing to a potentially important childhood trauma that should be included in work on contemporary childhood stressors in this era of mass incarceration. This paper investigates the influences of maternal and paternal imprisonment on changes in young adult mental health using a nationally representative sample. We assess four perspectives-gendered loss, same-sex role model, intergenerational stress, and maternal salience - on the joint influences of maternal and paternal incarceration within the broader stress process paradigm. The results generalize support for a gendered loss perspective developed in work on parental death and an early small study of parental incarceration. This pattern reveals maternal incarceration increases depressive symptoms while paternal incarceration increases substance role problems. Chronicity of parental imprisonment and its timing are also influential. Analyses further specify a vulnerability of male and minority young adults to high levels of mental health problems following maternal and paternal incarceration in adolescence. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Genetic toxicology and cancer risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Choy, Wai Nang

    2001-01-01

    ... their risks to humans are obvious goals for the protection of public health. When exposure is unavoidable, an accurate estimation of human risk as a result of exposure is essential for making regulatory decisions. Quantitative cancer risk assessment is an intricate process that utilizes knowledge from many different scien...

  19. GHGT-11 - Integrated Carbon Risk Assessment (ICARAS)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wollenweber, J.; Busby, D.; Wessel-Berg, D.; Nepveu, M.; Bossie Codreanu, D.; Grimstad, A-A.; Sijacic, D.; Maurand, N.; Lothe, A.; Wahl, F.; Polak, S.; Boot, H.; Grøver, A.; Wildenborg, T.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper an integrated workflow is described for risk assessment within CCS. IFPEN, SINTEF and TNO joined forces to define a comprehensive and transparent risk assessment methodology. The tools developed in these institutes are thereby integrated. The workflow can be applied to proposed carbon

  20. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  1. Summary Report: Risk Assessment Forum Technical Workshop on Population-level Ecological Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008 technical workshop regarding development of additional guidelines or best practices for planning, implementing and interpreting ecological risk assessments that involve population-level assessment endpoints.

  2. Establishing paternity in Whooping Cranes (Grus americana) by DNA analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longmire, Jonathan L.; Gee, George F.; Hardekopf, C.L.; Mark, G.A.

    1992-01-01

    DNA fingerprinting was used to study paternity and genetic variability within a captive flock of Whooping Cranes (Grus americana). Fingerprint patterns for 42 individuals were obtained by digesting genomic crane DNAs with HaeIII followed by electrophoresis, blotting, and hybridization to the M13 minisatellite probe. Despite finding reduced levels of genetic variation in the Whooping Crane due to a population "bottleneck," these polymorphisms were successfully used to determine paternity in six of seven cases of captive propagation where the maternal-offspring relationship was known, but where the sire was unknown. These determinations of paternity are required for effective genetic management of the crane flock. These results also revealed a number of heterozygous minisatellite loci that will be valuable in future assessments of genetic variability in this endangered species.

  3. Asbestos Workshop: Sampling, Analysis, and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    1EMDQ March 2012 ASBESTOS WORKSHOP: SAMPLING, ANALYSIS, AND RISK ASSESSMENT Paul Black, PhD, Neptune and Company Ralph Perona, DABT, Neptune and...NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Neptune and Company, Inc,1435 Garrison Street, Suite 110,Denver,CO...8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 2 Presentation Objective Provide an overview of asbestos-related risk assessment: • Focus on risk from

  4. Vascular Plaque Determination for Stroke Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-16-1-0608 TITLE: Vascular Plaque Determination for Stroke Risk Assessment PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Vince, David Geoffrey...TITLE AND SUBTITLE Vascular Plaque Determination for Stroke Risk Assessment 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH-16-1-0608 5c. PROGRAM... plaques at high risk for initiating a cerebrovascular accident. The core of the current research project is a pilot clinical study to enroll 100 subjects

  5. Caries risk assessment models in caries prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amila Zukanović

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective. The aim of this research was to assess the efficiency of different multifactor models in caries prediction. Material and methods. Data from the questionnaire and objective examination of 109 examinees was entered into the Cariogram, Previser and Caries-Risk Assessment Tool (CAT multifactor risk assessment models. Caries risk was assessed with the help of all three models for each patient, classifying them as low, medium or high-risk patients. The development of new caries lesions over a period of three years [Decay Missing Filled Tooth (DMFT increment = difference between Decay Missing Filled Tooth Surface (DMFTS index at baseline and follow up], provided for examination of the predictive capacity concerning different multifactor models. Results. The data gathered showed that different multifactor risk assessment models give significantly different results (Friedman test: Chi square = 100.073, p=0.000. Cariogram is the model which identified the majority of examinees as medium risk patients (70%. The other two models were more radical in risk assessment, giving more unfavorable risk –profiles for patients. In only 12% of the patients did the three multifactor models assess the risk in the same way. Previser and CAT gave the same results in 63% of cases – the Wilcoxon test showed that there is no statistically significant difference in caries risk assessment between these two models (Z = -1.805, p=0.071. Conclusions. Evaluation of three different multifactor caries risk assessment models (Cariogram, PreViser and CAT showed that only the Cariogram can successfully predict new caries development in 12-year-old Bosnian children.

  6. A Non-Invasive Droplet Digital PCR (ddPCR) Assay to Detect Paternal CFTR Mutations in the Cell-Free Fetal DNA (cffDNA) of Three Pregnancies at Risk of Cystic Fibrosis via Compound Heterozygosity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debrand, Emmanuel; Lykoudi, Alexandra; Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Allen, Stephanie K

    2015-01-01

    Non-invasive prenatal diagnosis (NIPD) makes use of cell-free fetal DNA (cffDNA) in the mother's bloodstream as an alternative to invasive sampling methods such as amniocentesis or CVS, which carry a 0.5-1% risk of fetal loss. We describe a droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) assay designed to inform the testing options for couples whose offspring are at risk of suffering from cystic fibrosis via compound heterozygosity. By detecting the presence or absence of the paternal mutation in the cffDNA, it is possible to predict whether the fetus will be an unaffected carrier (absence) or whether further invasive testing is indicated (presence). We selected a family in which the parents were known to carry different mutated CFTR alleles as our test system. NIPD was performed for three of their pregnancies during the first trimester (at around 11-12 weeks of gestation). Taqman probes were designed against an amplicon in exon 11 of the CFTR gene, to quantify the proportion of mutant (ΔF508-MUT; FAM) and normal (ΔF508-NOR; VIC) alleles at position c.1521_1523 of the CFTR gene. The assay correctly and unambiguously recognized the ΔF508-MUT CFTR allele in the cffDNA of all three proband fetuses and none of the six unaffected control fetuses. In conclusion, the Bio-Rad QX100 was found to be a cost-effective and technically undemanding platform for designing bespoke NIPD assays.

  7. ISFG: Recommendations on biostatistics in paternity testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjertson, David W; Brenner, Charles H; Baur, Max P

    2007-01-01

    The Paternity Testing Commission (PTC) of the International Society for Forensic Genetics has taken up the task of establishing the biostatistical recommendations in accordance with the ISO 17025 standards and a previous set of ISFG recommendations specific to the genetic investigations in patern......The Paternity Testing Commission (PTC) of the International Society for Forensic Genetics has taken up the task of establishing the biostatistical recommendations in accordance with the ISO 17025 standards and a previous set of ISFG recommendations specific to the genetic investigations...... in paternity cases. In the initial set, the PTC recommended that biostatistical evaluations of paternity are based on a likelihood ratio principle - yielding the paternity index, PI. Here, we have made five supplementary biostatistical recommendations. The first recommendation clarifies and defines basic....../reconstruction and immigration cases), respectively. The fourth recommendation considers strategies regarding genetic evidence against paternity. The fifth recommendation covers necessary documentation, reporting details and assumptions underlying calculations. The PTC strongly suggests that these recommendations should...

  8. RISK ASSESSMENT SUPPORTING THE FINAL RULE FOR ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This analysis evaluates potential risks due to release of solvents from laundry sludge and disposable wipes sent to a landfill. Receptors for air and groundwater in lined and unlined landfills were evaluated. The potential solvent concentrations were calculated to determine the solvent loadings from the wipes and sludge. The mass based solvent quantity loadings were compared to the risk based loadings to determine the risk potential for specific solvents. This risk analysis also addressed previous peer reviewers’ and general public comments on the initial risk assessment conducted for the proposed rule. The final rule, supported by the risk assessment, will be prepared after the consideration of all comments for the proposed rule and the risk analysis Notice of Data Availability. The risk analysis will be used to support the development of a final rule for solvent-contaminated wipes. To ensure the adequacy of the modeling and solvent concentrations, the analysis was peer reviewed by external reviewers.

  9. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyoung-Hee Choi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models.

  10. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

    2016-01-01

    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models. PMID:26950859

  11. Common breast cancer risk alleles and risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Näslund-Koch, C; Nordestgaard, B G; Bojesen, S E

    2017-01-01

    general population were followed in Danish health registries for up to 21 years after blood sampling. After genotyping 72 breast cancer risk loci, each with 0-2 alleles, the sum for each individual was calculated. We used the simple allele sum instead of the conventional polygenic risk score...... cancer risks ≤ 1.5%. Using polygenic risk score led to similar results. CONCLUSION: Common breast cancer risk alleles are associated with incidence and mortality of breast cancer in the general population, but not with other cancers. After including breast cancer allele sum in risk assessment, 25......BACKGROUND: We hypothesized that common breast cancer risk alleles are associated with incidences of breast cancer and other cancers in the general population, and identify low risk women among those invited for screening mammography. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: 35,441 individuals from the Danish...

  12. Health Risk Assessments for Alumina Refineries

    OpenAIRE

    Donoghue, A Michael; Coffey, Patrick S.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Methods: Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. Results: The ...

  13. Case-control analysis of paternal age and trisomic anomalies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Souza, E; Morris, J K

    2010-11-01

    To determine whether older paternal age increases the risk of fathering a pregnancy with Patau (trisomy 13), Edwards (trisomy 18), Klinefelter (XXY) or XYY syndrome. Case-control: cases with each of these syndromes were matched to four controls with Down syndrome from within the same congenital anomaly register and with maternal age within 6 months. Data from 22 EUROCAT congenital anomaly registers in 12 European countries. Diagnoses with observed or (for terminations) predicted year of birth from 1980 to 2005, comprising live births, fetal deaths with gestational age ≥ 20 weeks and terminations after prenatal diagnosis of the anomaly. Data include 374 cases of Patau syndrome, 929 of Edwards syndrome, 295 of Klinefelter syndrome, 28 of XYY syndrome and 5627 controls with Down syndrome. Odds ratio (OR) associated with a 10-year increase in paternal age for each anomaly was estimated using conditional logistic regression. Results were adjusted to take account of the estimated association of paternal age with Down syndrome (1.11; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.23). The OR for Patau syndrome was 1.10 (95% CI 0.83 to 1.45); for Edwards syndrome, 1.15 (0.96 to 1.38); for Klinefelter syndrome, 1.35 (1.02 to 1.79); and for XYY syndrome, 1.99 (0.75 to 5.26). There was a statistically significant increase in the odds of Klinefelter syndrome with increasing paternal age. The larger positive associations of Klinefelter and XYY syndromes with paternal age compared with Patau and Edwards syndromes are consistent with the greater percentage of these sex chromosome anomalies being of paternal origin.

  14. Impact of paternal investment among women in Sandzak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Čvorović Jelena

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available An evolutionary model of facultative reproductive strategies explains much of women's life history strategy in terms of the absence or presence of their fathers and parental investment they made. This paper assesses direct paternal investment and behavioral outcomes in 164 women in the Sandzak region, using human behavioral ecology approach, with a special emphasis on female reproductive strategy.

  15. Risk Assessment: Perchloroethylene Dry Cleaners Refined Human Health Risk Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    This November 2005 memo and appendices describe the methods by which EPA conducted its refined risk assessment of the Major Source and Area Source facilities within the perchloroethylene (perc) dry cleaners source category.

  16. Cardiovascular risk assessment in diabetes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Djaberi, Roxana

    2014-01-01

    Research described in this thesis is based on clinical data obtained through diabetes cardiovascular risk management (DIACARM) project. A clinical protocol founded on the co-operation of the departments of endocrinology, cardiology, nephrology, radiology and nuclear medicine at the Leiden University

  17. Health risk assessments for alumina refineries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donoghue, A Michael; Coffey, Patrick S

    2014-05-01

    To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10(-6). The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries.

  18. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  19. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  20. Models to Assess the Bankruptcy Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Valeria TOMA

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Closely related to financial risk assessment, one of the main concerns of the organizations should be the evaluation of bankruptcy risk, in this period of slow economic growth. Organization bankruptcies have increased in recent years worldwide. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that the methods and models for forecasting bankruptcy of organizations, for the bankruptcy risk assessment are seeing for the health financing of an entity in financial accounting diagnosis and that the organizations requires assessment of risks accompanying the work, in which some signals fragility (vulnerable health this and other projected bankruptcy (insolvability threatens its survival (continuity. The bankruptcy risk assessment is important for profit-seeking investors because they must know how to value a company in or near bankruptcy is an important skill, but to detect any signs of looming bankruptcy is necessary to calculate and to analyse all kinds of financial rations: working capital, profitability, debt levels and liquidity.

  1. Modeling paternal attentiveness: distressed pups evoke differential neurobiological and behavioral responses in paternal and nonpaternal mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, K G; Franssen, C L; Hampton, J E; Rzucidlo, A M; Hyer, M M; True, M; Kaufman, C; Bardi, M

    2013-03-27

    With the exception of parturition and lactation, male California deer mice (Peromyscus californicus) exhibit the same parental responses toward offspring as conspecific females. A closely related species, Peromyscus maniculatus, however, rarely exhibits paternal responses. In the current study, a comparative species approach was used to assess paternal responses in both Peromyscus species with varying levels of paternal experience (biological fathers, pup-exposed virgins, and pup-naïve virgins). Of special interest was the persistence of the males to direct their attention toward a distressed pup housed in a small enclosure (i.e., a barrier existed between males and pups). In addition to pup-directed responses, non-pup-directed responses such as grooming, resting and jumping were recorded. Subsequently, all animals' brains were assessed for fos-immunoreactivity (ir) in several areas previously associated with the paternal brain circuit. Overall, P. californicus exhibited more pup-directed responses as well as less fos-ir in brain areas involved in emotional integration and processing such as the insula and anterior cingulate. In addition to increased activation of emotional regulatory areas, P. maniculatus males, observed to direct their behavior away from the pup, exhibited higher fos-ir in the nucleus accumbens (involved in goal acquisition), perhaps due to a heightened motivation to avoid the pups. Interestingly, experience with pups altered the lateral septum and amygdala activation of P. maniculatus to levels similar to P. californicus biological fathers. Finally, fos-ir was increased in the medial preoptic area, involved in the maintenance of maternal behavior, in the biological fathers of both species. Thus, although biological predispositions toward pup-directed behaviors were observed in P. californicus males, evidence of a few shifts toward the paternal neural activation profile was apparent in P. maniculatus males. Specifically, modifications in fear

  2. Suicide risk assessment in high-risk adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Barbara P; Dihigo, Sharolyn K

    2015-09-13

    A significant number of adolescents experience depression and other mental health disorders that may put them at risk for suicide. Mental health assessment is an important component of primary healthcare. Depression and suicide risk screening can assist healthcare providers in preventing suicides.

  3. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  4. Change in paternity and recurrence of hyperemesis gravidarum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fejzo, Marlena S; Ching, Chunyu; Schoenberg, Frederic P; Macgibbon, Kimber; Romero, Roberto; Goodwin, T Murphy; Mullin, Patrick M

    2012-08-01

    To determine whether change in paternity changes recurrence risk of hyperemesis gravidarum (HG). Survey data on recurrence of HG was compared between cases who had a paternity change between pregnancies and cases who did not. The percentage of HG pregnancies in women with the same partner for all pregnancies was not significantly different from the percentage of HG pregnancies in women who changed partners for at least one pregnancy (78% vs 71%, p > 0.05). Participants who did and did not change partners between their first and second pregnancies, were asked to rate their first and second pregnancy in regards to symptoms of HG. Neither the ratings nor the change in rating between pregnancies was significantly different between the two groups. Women reported HG in over 70% of their pregnancies regardless of a paternity change. Paternal genes expressed through the fetus do not have a significant effect on incidence or recurrence of HG. This study supports a strong maternal genetic factor involved in HG. However, because the recurrence risk is not 100%, other factors play a role. Identification of the predisposing gene(s) and other factors will determine the cause of this poorly understood complication of pregnancy.

  5. Mechanisms and consequences of paternally transmitted chromosomal abnormalities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marchetti, F; Wyrobek, A J

    2005-04-05

    Paternally transmitted chromosomal damage has been associated with pregnancy loss, developmental and morphological defects, infant mortality, infertility, and genetic diseases in the offspring including cancer. There is epidemiological evidence linking paternal exposure to occupational or environmental agents with an increased risk of abnormal reproductive outcomes. There is also a large body of literature on germ cell mutagenesis in rodents showing that treatment of male germ cells with mutagens has dramatic consequences on reproduction producing effects such as those observed in human epidemiological studies. However, we know very little about the etiology, transmission and early embryonic consequences of paternally-derived chromosomal abnormalities. The available evidence suggests that: (1) there are distinct patterns of germ cell-stage differences in the sensitivity of induction of transmissible genetic damage with male postmeiotic cells being the most sensitive; (2) cytogenetic abnormalities at first metaphase after fertilization are critical intermediates between paternal exposure and abnormal reproductive outcomes; and, (3) there are maternally susceptibility factors that may have profound effects on the amount of sperm DNA damage that is converted into chromosomal aberrations in the zygote and directly affect the risk for abnormal reproductive outcomes.

  6. Paternity leave in Sweden: costs, savings and health gains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Månsdotter, Anna; Lindholm, Lars; Winkvist, Anna

    2007-06-01

    The initial objective is to examine the relationship between paternity leave in 1978-1979 and male mortality during 1981-2001, and the second objective is to calculate the cost-effectiveness of the 1974 parental insurance reform in Sweden. Based on a population of all Swedish couples who had their first child together in 1978 (45,801 males), the risk of death for men who took paternity leave, compared with men who did not, was estimated by odds ratios. The cost-effectiveness analysis considered costs for information, administration and production losses, minus savings due to decreased sickness leave and inpatient care, compared to health gains in life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). It is demonstrated that fathers who took paternity leave have a statistically significant decreased death risk of 16%. Costs minus savings (discounted values) stretch from a net cost of EUR 19 million to a net saving of EUR 11 million, and the base case cost-effectiveness is EUR 8000 per QALY. The study indicates that that the right to paternity leave is a desirable reform based on commonly stated public health, economic, and feminist goals. The critical issue in future research should be to examine impact from health-related selection.

  7. Risk Assessment of the Innovative Projects Implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deptuła Anna Małgorzata

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the issue of risk assessment of innovations. Specificity of technological innovation realized in manufacturing companies has been particularly well described here. An original method of assessing the innovative projects risk has been presented. The elaborated method has been implemented in three enterprises, the business activity of which is not typical for electrical engineering, metal and mechanical engineering and companies which are going to carry out the innovative project simultaneously with already started innovative projects. Moreover, an example of the risk assessment of a chosen technological innovation has been presented.

  8. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    standardised scientific methods to characterise the probability and magnitude of harm caused by a hazard, preferably in a quantitative manner. In turn, HIA is a process to assess future impacts of recent proposals and is dominated by qualitative evaluation. It makes a projection for a future scenario rather......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...... their relationship. The experiences accumulated during the preparation of several case studies in a large scale international project (RAPID) are used for argumentation and formulation of recommendations on how risk assessment can be systematically integrated into the HIA process. Risk assessment uses well...

  9. Characteristic neurobiological patterns differentiate paternal responsiveness in two Peromyscus species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Kelly G; Franssen, Catherine L; Bardi, Massimo; Hampton, Joseph E; Hainley, Leslie; Karsner, Stephanie; Tu, Eddie B; Hyer, Molly M; Crockett, Ashly; Baranova, Anya; Ferguson, Tajh; Ferguson, Tenaj; Kinsley, Craig H

    2011-01-01

    Rodent paternal models provide unique opportunities to investigate the emergence of affiliative social behavior in mammals. Using biparental and uniparental Peromyscus species (californicus and maniculatus, respectively) we assessed paternal responsiveness by exposing males to biological offspring, unrelated conspecific pups, or familiar brothers following a 24-hour separation. The putative paternal circuit we investigated included brain areas involved in fear/anxiety [cingulate cortex (Cg), medial amygdala (MeA), paraventricular nucleus of the hypothalamus (PVN), and lateral septum (LS)], parental motivation [medial preoptic area (MPOA)], learning/behavioral plasticity (hippocampus), olfaction [pyriform cortex (PC)], and social rewards (nucleus accumbens). Paternal experience in californicus males reduced fos immunoreactivity (ir) in several fear/anxiety areas; additionally, all californicus groups exhibited decreased fos-ir in the PC. Enhanced arginine vasopressin (AVP) and oxytocin (OT)-ir cell bodies and fibers, as well as increased neuronal restructuring in the hippocampus, were also observed in californicus mice. Multidimensional scaling analyses revealed distinct brain activation profiles differentiating californicus biological fathers, pup-exposed virgins, and pup-naïve virgins. Specifically, associations among MPOA fos, CA1 fos, dentate gyrus GFAP, CA2 nestin-, and PVN OT-ir characterized biological fathers; LS fos-, Cg fos-, and AVP-ir characterized pup-exposed virgins, and PC-, PVN-, and MeA fos-ir characterized pup-naïve virgins. Thus, whereas fear/anxiety areas characterized pup-naïve males, neurobiological factors involved in more diverse functions such as learning, motivation, and nurturing responses characterized fatherhood in biparental californicus mice. Less distinct paternal-dependent activation patterns were observed in uniparental maniculatus mice. These data suggest that dual neurobiological circuits, leading to the inhibition of social

  10. Resolving Questioned Paternity Issues Using a Philippine Genetic Database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Corazon De Ungria

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available The utility of the Philippines genetic database consisting of seven Short Tandem Repeat (STR markers for testing of ten questioned paternity cases was investigated. The markers used were HUMvWA, HUMTH01, HUMCSF1PO, HUMFOLP23, D8S306, HUMFES/FPS, and HUMF13A01. These markers had a combined Power of Paternity Exclusion of 99.17%. Due to the gravity of some cases handled in the laboratory, routine procedures must be assessed to determine the capacity of the analysis to exclude a non-father of predict paternity. Clients showed a preference for only testing father and child to lower costs and reduce conflicts, particularly when the mother objects to the conduct of DNA tests, or when she is deceased or cannot be located. The Probability of Paternity was calculated with and without the mother’s profile in each of the cases. In all instances, results were more informative when the mother’s DNA profile was included. Moreover, variations in the allelic distribution of five STR markers among eight Caucasian, one African-American, and two Amerindian (Argentina populations resulted in significant differences in Probability of Paternity estimates compared to those calculated using the Philippine Database.Based on the results of the present study, it is recommended that tests on alleged father-child samples be performed to screen for at least two mismatches. In the absence of theses mismatches, further analysis that includes the mother’s DNA profile is recommended. Moreover, it is recommended that a Philippines genetic database be used for DNA-based paternity testing in the Philippines.

  11. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  12. Cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Amaral de Paula

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to assess cardiovascular risk by means of the traditional Framingham score and the version modified through the incorporation of emerging risk factors, such as family history of acute myocardial infarction, metabolic syndrome and chronic kidney disease. METHOD: participants were 50 hypertensive patients under outpatient treatment. The clinical data were collected through a semi-structured interview and the laboratory data from patients' histories. RESULTS: it was verified that the traditional Framingham score was predominantly low (74%, with 14% showing medium risk and 12% high risk. After the inclusion of emerging risk factors, the chance of a coronary event was low in 22% of the cases, medium in 56% and high in 22%. CONCLUSIONS: the comparison between the traditional Framingham risk score and the modified version demonstrated a significant difference in the cardiovascular risk classification, whose correlation shows discreet agreement between the two scales. Lifestyle elements seem to play a determinant role in the increase in cardiovascular risk levels.

  13. Cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Amaral de Paula

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to assess cardiovascular risk by means of the traditional Framingham score and the version modified through the incorporation of emerging risk factors, such as family history of acute myocardial infarction, metabolic syndrome and chronic kidney disease. METHOD: participants were 50 hypertensive patients under outpatient treatment. The clinical data were collected through a semi-structured interview and the laboratory data from patients' histories. RESULTS: it was verified that the traditional Framingham score was predominantly low (74%, with 14% showing medium risk and 12% high risk. After the inclusion of emerging risk factors, the chance of a coronary event was low in 22% of the cases, medium in 56% and high in 22%. CONCLUSIONS: the comparison between the traditional Framingham risk score and the modified version demonstrated a significant difference in the cardiovascular risk classification, whose correlation shows discreet agreement between the two scales. Lifestyle elements seem to play a determinant role in the increase in cardiovascular risk levels.

  14. Autism and increased paternal age related changes in global levels of gene expression regulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark D Alter

    Full Text Available A causal role of mutations in multiple general transcription factors in neurodevelopmental disorders including autism suggested that alterations in global levels of gene expression regulation might also relate to disease risk in sporadic cases of autism. This premise can be tested by evaluating for changes in the overall distribution of gene expression levels. For instance, in mice, variability in hippocampal-dependent behaviors was associated with variability in the pattern of the overall distribution of gene expression levels, as assessed by variance in the distribution of gene expression levels in the hippocampus. We hypothesized that a similar change in variance might be found in children with autism. Gene expression microarrays covering greater than 47,000 unique RNA transcripts were done on RNA from peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBL of children with autism (n = 82 and controls (n = 64. Variance in the distribution of gene expression levels from each microarray was compared between groups of children. Also tested was whether a risk factor for autism, increased paternal age, was associated with variance. A decrease in the variance in the distribution of gene expression levels in PBL was associated with the diagnosis of autism and a risk factor for autism, increased paternal age. Traditional approaches to microarray analysis of gene expression suggested a possible mechanism for decreased variance in gene expression. Gene expression pathways involved in transcriptional regulation were down-regulated in the blood of children with autism and children of older fathers. Thus, results from global and gene specific approaches to studying microarray data were complimentary and supported the hypothesis that alterations at the global level of gene expression regulation are related to autism and increased paternal age. Global regulation of transcription, thus, represents a possible point of convergence for multiple etiologies of autism and other

  15. [Study on application of two risk assessment methods in coal dust occupational health risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, B; Zhang, Y L; Chen, Y Q

    2017-04-20

    Objective: To evaluate the applicability of quantitative grading method (GBZ/T 229.1-2010) and occupational hazard risk index method in coal dust occupational health risk assessment. Methods: Taking 4 coal mines as the research object of risk assessment and making occupational health field testing and investigation. Based on two risk assessment methods, we analysed the health risk levels of 20 occupations which were exposed to coal dust in workplaces. Results: Coal dust working post had different risk levels in 4 coal mines, the post of higher risk level were mainly concentrated in the underground workplace of coal mine, especially the post of coal mining and tunneling system. The two risk assessment results showed that the risk levels of coal-mining machine drivers and tunneling machine drivers were the highest. The risk levels of coal dust working post used by two risk assessment methods had no significant difference (P>0.05) and were highly correlated (r=0.821, Prisk assessment methods were supported by the field investigation and literatures. Conclusion: The two risk assessment methods can be used in coal dust occupational health risk assessment.

  16. Risk assessment in transportation systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Młyńczak Marek

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents problems of hazard identification in transportation systems, where not only field of action is large but also cause-consequences relations between failure causes and losses are distant in time and space. It is observed in transportation systems of goods and passengers, systems of water, gas, oil distribution and electro-energetic nets. Proposed systemic approach based on system elements classification on active (casual and passive ones (affected. There are described concepts of vulnerability (damageability, resilience (ability of recovering and risk controlling by introducing safety measures to undesired event chain.

  17. Preconception risk assessment of infertile couples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekuei, Nafisehsadat; Kazemi, Ashraf; Ehsanpur, Soheila; Beigi, Nastaran Mohammad Ali

    2013-01-01

    With regard to the importance of preconception conditions in maternal health and fertility, preconception risk assessment makes treatment trends and pregnancy outcome more successful among infertile couples. This study has tried to investigate preconception risk assessment in infertile couples. This is a descriptive analytical survey conducted on 268 subjects, selected by convenient sampling, referring to Isfahan infertility centers (Iran). The data were collected by questionnaires through interview and clients' medical records. Pre-pregnancy risk assessment including history taking (personal, familial, medical, medications, menstruation, and pregnancy), exams (physical, genital, and vital signs), and routine test requests (routine, cervix, infections, and biochemical tests) was performed in the present study. The results showed that the lowest percentage of taking a complete history was for personal history (0.4%) and the highest was for history of menstruation (100%). The lowest percentage of complete exam was for physical exam (3.4%) and the highest for genital exam (100%). With regard to laboratory assessment, the highest percentage was for routine tests (36.6%) and the lowest was for infection tests (0.4%). Based o the results of the present study, most of the risk assessment components are poorly assessed in infertile couples. With regard to the importance of infertility treatment, spending high costs and time on that, and existence of high-risk individuals as well as treatment failures, health providers should essentially pay special attention to preconception risk assessment in infertile couples in order to enhance the chance of success and promote treatment outcome.

  18. [Working abroad: risk assessment and immunization].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianco, P; Anzelmo, V

    2010-01-01

    The workers travelling abroad by country of origin to carry on the job puts at risk not present in the country of origin, which overlap those related to the job profile. These risks are related to the trip, the geographic area of destination, the climate, the presence of vector, the socio-economic variables, the hygienic conditions of the host country. The risk assessment for workers abroad is complex and requires multidisciplinary inputs. Correctly performed, the risk assessment identifies the parameters needed to develop appropriate preventive strategies. The assessment of biological risk related to the geographic areas identifies immunization programs that prevent serious infectious diseases. The occupational physician must establish health surveillance programs in which the vaccination schemes should be related to geographical areas. Training and information company programs to complete protection through hygienic measures.

  19. Improving research, policy and practice to promote paternal involvement in pregnancy outcomes: the roles of obstetricians-gynecologists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, M Jermane; Heidelbaugh, Joel J; Robertson, Audra; Alio, P A; Parker, Willie J

    2010-12-01

    To review current research, policy, and practice on paternal involvement in pregnancy outcomes and suggest recommendations to improve paternal involvement in pregnancy and childbirth. Although much has been written about fathers' influence on child health and development, little is known about the expectant father's role in pregnancy and childbirth. Recent studies have demonstrated the importance of paternal involvement during pregnancy, but more research is needed to identify specific contributions expectant fathers make and their impact on reducing infant mortality and associated risk factors during pregnancy and childbirth. Obstetricians-gynecologists can play a greater role in promoting research, policy and practice to improve paternal involvement in pregnancy and childbirth.

  20. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...

  1. Assessing the Environmental Risks of Nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    Assessing the environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials (NM) is currently an intensely contested subject among scientists, organizations, governments, and policymakers. The shear number, variety, and market penetration of NM in consumer goods and other applications, including environmental...

  2. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  3. Open risk assessment: methods and expertise

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Verloo, Didier; Meyvis, Tom; Smith, Anthony

    2016-01-01

    ... traditional dialogue and towards a more sustainable stakeholder and society interaction. The discussion centred on the needs of EFSA and of target audiences throughout the process, from risk assessment initiation through societal...

  4. Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment (CAMRA), based at Michigan State University and jointly funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the...

  5. How We Assess Risks to Pollinators

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has a new risk assessment framework for bees as part of its regulatory decision-making process for all pesticides, which relies on a tiered process, focuses on major routes of exposure, and distinguishes different types of pesticide treatment.

  6. Towards dynamics in flood risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mazzorana, B; Levaggi, L; Keiler, M; Fuchs, S

    2012-01-01

    .... The assessment of the dynamic evolution of flood risk is the pillar of any subsequent planning process that is targeted at a reduction of the expected adverse consequences of the hazard impact...

  7. Procedures for health risk assessment in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seeley, M.R.; Tonner-Navarro, L.E.; Beck, B.D.; Deskin, R.; Feron, V.J.; Johanson, G.; Bolt, H.M.

    2001-01-01

    This report compares cancer classification systems, health risk assessment approaches, and procedures used for establishing occupational exposure limits (OELs), in various European countries and scientific organizations. The objectives were to highlight and compare key aspects of these processes and

  8. European Union Risk Assessment Report - Sodium Perborate

    OpenAIRE

    2007-01-01

    This report provides , with conclusions, the risk assessment report of the substance sodium perborate that has been prepared by Austria in the context of Council Regulation (EEC) No. 793/93 on the evaluation and control of existing substances.

  9. Paternal body mass index (BMI is associated with offspring intrauterine growth in a gender dependent manner.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    You-Peng Chen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Environmental alternations leading to fetal programming of cardiovascular diseases in later life have been attributed to maternal factors. However, animal studies showed that paternal obesity may program cardio-metabolic diseases in the offspring. In the current study we tested the hypothesis that paternal BMI may be associated with fetal growth. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed the relationship between paternal body mass index (BMI and birth weight, ultrasound parameters describing the newborn's body shape as well as parameters describing the newborns endocrine system such as cortisol, aldosterone, renin activity and fetal glycated serum protein in a birth cohort of 899 father/mother/child triplets. Since fetal programming is an offspring sex specific process, male and female offspring were analyzed separately. Multivariable regression analyses considering maternal BMI, paternal and maternal age, hypertension during pregnancy, maternal total glycated serum protein, parity and either gestational age (for birth weight or time of ultrasound investigation (for ultrasound parameters as confounding showed that paternal BMI is associated with growth of the male but not female offspring. Paternal BMI correlated with birth parameters of male offspring only: birth weight; biparietal diameter, head circumference; abdominal diameter, abdominal circumference; and pectoral diameter. Cortisol was likewise significantly correlated with paternal BMI in male newborns only. CONCLUSIONS: Paternal BMI affects growth of the male but not female offspring. Paternal BMI may thus represent a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases of male offspring in later life. It remains to be demonstrated whether this is linked to an offspring sex specific paternal programming of cortisol secretion.

  10. Vulnerability Identification Errors in Security Risk Assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Taubenberger, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    At present, companies rely on information technology systems to achieve their business objectives, making them vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. Information security risk assessments help organisations to identify their risks and vulnerabilities. An accurate identification of risks and vulnerabilities is a challenge, because the input data is uncertain. So-called ’vulnerability identification errors‘ can occur if false positive vulnerabilities are identified, or if vulnerabilities remain u...

  11. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments ? A Review

    OpenAIRE

    Kyoung-Hee Choi; Heeyoung Lee; Soomin Lee; Sejeong Kim; Yohan Yoon

    2016-01-01

    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused o...

  12. Import risk assessment for salmon meat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beers, P T; Wilson, D W

    1993-12-01

    The authors discuss the risk assessment currently being conducted by the Australian Quarantine and Inspection Service (AQIS) on the importation of salmon products. AQIS conducted a public consultation on the proposal, in line with Australian Government policy on transparency and accountability in the quarantine decision-making process. The authors examine the factors which should be taken into account in the assessment of the risk associated with the importation of such products, and note the difficulties encountered with the epidemiology of fish diseases.

  13. Sulfur Oxides Risk and Exposure Assessment Planning ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    In conducting risk/exposure assessments for the Sulfur Oxides NAAQS review, EPA will first develop a draft Scope and Methods Plan which will describe the proposed scope of the quantitative and qualitative analyses to be performed and the tools/methods that may be employed Provide opportunity for CASAC feedback on EPA's plans for the risk and exposure assessment for the Sulfur Oxides NAAQS review

  14. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  15. Flood risk assessments at different spatial scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Moel, H.; Jongman, B.; Kreibich, H.; Merz, B.; Penning-Rowsell, E; Ward, P.J.

    2015-01-01

    Managing flood risk, i.e. both the hazard and the potential consequences, is an important aspect of adapting to global change and has gained much traction in recent decades. As a result, a priori flood risk assessments have become an important part of flood management practices. Many methodologies

  16. Gender and risk assessment in contraceptive technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Kammen, Jessika; Oudshoorn, Nelly E.J.

    This paper concerns a comparison of risk assessment practices of contraceptives for women and men. Our analysis shows how the evaluation of health risks of contraceptives does not simply reflect the specific effects of chemical compounds in the human body. Rather, we show how side-effects were rated

  17. Experimental Validation of a Risk Assessment Method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vriezekolk, E.; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    [Context and motivation] It is desirable that require- ment engineering methods are reliable, that is, that methods can be repeated with the same results. Risk assessments methods, however, often have low reliability when they identify risk mitigations for a sys- tem based on expert judgement.

  18. [Current lines of methodology for risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakhmanin, Iu A; Novikov, S M; Shashina, T A

    2007-01-01

    The paper presents the results of some guidance studies assessing the risk, recently conducted at the A. N. Sysin Research Institute of Human Ecology and Environmental Health, such as validation of toxicological and hygienic criteria for risk assessment upon short- and long-term human exposures to deleterious substances; development and introduction of methods for assessing health risk and damage, by applying computer technologies; elaboration of guidelines for establishing the cause-and-effect relationship of changes in health indices to those in the environment; characterization of damage caused by ambient air pollution in Russian cities and towns; possibilities of using the guidance for assessing the risk to improve sociohygienic monitoring. It also gives the results of testing scientific developments in the assessment of a multienvironmental risk in the areas exposed to emission from aluminum works (Khakasia) and chemical and petrochemical enterprises (Samara Region) and in the determination of contribution of emission from the Moscow fuel-and-energy complex to risks and damages to human health, caused by ambient air pollution. The urgent issues of further development of modern trends in risk guidance studies are determined.

  19. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  20. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  1. Paternalism and the good lives model of sex offender rehabilitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaser, Bill

    2011-09-01

    The lives of sex offenders are often confused and disorganized. Modern sex offender rehabilitation approaches such as the good lives model emphasize holistic aims such as helping offenders to live more satisfying and fulfilling lives, rather than merely teaching them to avoid risk. The appeal of the model lies in its justification by paternalism: Whatever harms are inflicted on offenders during the rehabilitation process are ultimately for their own good. But paternalism has its limitations, which include potential infringements on offenders' autonomy and human rights, the risk of therapists imposing their own values and attitudes, and false claims that harmful interventions are justified by their benefit for offenders. Furthermore, some recent empirical studies suggest that offenders themselves do not necessarily prefer personal well-being goals over risk management techniques and that some offenders find it distressingly easy to incorporate "good lives" principles into an ongoing antisocial lifestyle. These limitations need to be taken into account when applying a good lives approach.

  2. Updating Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, Richard W

    2017-06-01

    Actuarial scales like the Static-99R are widely used to predict an individual's risk of sexual recidivism. However, current actuarial scales only provide rates of detected sex offenses over 10-year follow-up and do not account for all recidivism risk factors. Therefore, some forensic evaluators extrapolate, adjust, or override recidivism rates derived from actuarial scales to predict the lifetime risk of committed offenses that accounts for external risk factors, those not addressed by the actuarial scales. However, critics contend that altering rates from actuarial scales degrades their predictive validity. This article makes the case for extrapolating risk for time of exposure and for evidence-based external risk factors. It proposes using odds ratios (ORs) from case-control studies to adjust predictions from follow-up cohort studies. Finally, it shows how evaluators can apply ORs and their margins of error to sex offender risk assessment.

  3. Caries risk assessment in young adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersson, Gunnel Hänsel; Twetman, Svante

    2015-01-01

    as sensitivity, specificity and predictive values and compared with a risk assessment scheme used in Public Dental Service. RESULTS: The drop-outs displayed more risk factors and a significantly higher caries burden at baseline compared with those that remained in the project (p ... of impaired specificities. No combinations proved clinically useful values according to Yuoden's index. CONCLUSIONS: Within the limitations of the present study, the computer-based Cariogram did not perform better than a caries risk assessment scheme based on past caries experience and caries progression...

  4. Colony size is linked to paternity frequency and paternity skew in yellowjacket wasps and hornets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loope, Kevin J; Chien, Chun; Juhl, Michael

    2014-12-30

    The puzzle of the selective benefits of multiple mating and multiple paternity in social insects has been a major focus of research in evolutionary biology. We examine paternity in a clade of social insects, the vespine wasps (the yellowjackets and hornets), which contains species with high multiple paternity as well as species with single paternity. This group is particularly useful for comparative analyses given the wide interspecific variation in paternity traits despite similar sociobiology and ecology of the species in the genera Vespula, Dolichovespula and Vespa. We describe the paternity of 5 species of yellowjackets (Vespula spp.) and we perform a phylogenetically controlled comparative analysis of relatedness, paternity frequency, paternity skew, colony size, and nest site across 22 vespine taxa. We found moderate multiple paternity in four small-colony Vespula rufa-group species (effective paternity 1.5 - 2.1), and higher multiple paternity in the large-colony Vespula flavopilosa (effective paternity ~3.1). Our comparative analysis shows that colony size, but not nest site, predicts average intracolony relatedness. Underlying this pattern, we found that greater colony size is associated with both higher paternity frequency and reduced paternity skew. Our results support hypotheses focusing on the enhancement of genetic diversity in species with large colonies, and run counter to the hypothesis that multiple paternity is adaptively maintained due to sperm limitation associated with large colonies. We confirm the patterns observed in taxonomically widespread analyses by comparing closely related species of wasps with similar ecology, behavior and social organization. The vespine wasps may be a useful group for experimental investigation of the benefits of multiple paternity in the future.

  5. Paternalism and utilitarianism in research with human participants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resnik, David B

    2015-03-01

    In this article I defend a rule utilitarian approach to paternalistic policies in research with human participants. Some rules that restrict individual autonomy can be justified on the grounds that they help to maximize the overall balance of benefits over risks in research. The consequences that should be considered when formulating policy include not only likely impacts on research participants, but also impacts on investigators, institutions, sponsors, and the scientific community. The public reaction to adverse events in research (such as significant injury to participants or death) is a crucial concern that must be taken into account when assessing the consequences of different policy options, because public backlash can lead to outcomes that have a negative impact on science, such as cuts in funding, overly restrictive regulation and oversight, and reduced willingness of individuals to participate in research. I argue that concern about the public reaction to adverse events justifies some restrictions on the risks that competent, adult volunteers can face in research that offers them no significant benefits. The paternalism defended here is not pure, because it involves restrictions on the rights of investigators in order to protect participants. It also has a mixed rationale, because individual autonomy may be restricted not only to protect participants from harm but also to protect other stakeholders. Utility is not the sole justification for paternalistic research policies, since other considerations, such as justice and respect for individual rights/autonomy, must also be taken into account.

  6. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Biological Based Risk Assessment for Space Exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.

  8. The reproductive biology of Polytrichum formosum : clonal structure and paternity revealed by microsatellites

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Velde, M; During, HJ; Van de Zande, L; Bijlsma, R

    2001-01-01

    Using highly polymorphic microsatellite markers, we assessed clonal structure and paternity in a population of the bryophyte species Polytrichum formosum. Identical multilocus genotypes of individual shoots were almost never observed in spatially separated cushions, but were found to be highly

  9. Assessing wildfire risks at multiple spatial scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Justin Fitch

    2008-01-01

    In continuation of the efforts to advance wildfire science and develop tools for wildland fire managers, a spatial wildfire risk assessment was carried out using Classification and Regression Tree analysis (CART) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The analysis was performed at two scales. The small-scale assessment covered the entire state of New Mexico, while...

  10. Risk assessment as collective clinical judgement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Denis

    2002-01-01

    Risk assessment occupies an increasingly important position in psychiatry. This paper contends that collective judgement is the optimal method of assessing risk. Risk has a dual meaning: emotional and judgemental. Assaults, threats and survival anxiety. Staff wariness and resistance, attribution of blame. For a group to function well it must have a clear task. Custodial roles can lead to ambiguity. Externally directed hostility, internal homogenization of views. Rituals can develop in forensic institutions, as well as militarism. ANTI-THERAPEUTIC CULTURE: Sadism may develop where a marked power differential develops. Danger intensifies the feelings about leaders, perhaps idealization, perhaps disaffection. Leaders and others need to agree on risk assessment or fragmentation will occur. The assessment of risk may modify it. Mutual hostility must be reduced. Dialogue and understanding are needed. The environment should be less authoritarian and more democratic, so that patients can join a group and internalize its values. Reflective space is also required. Risk assessment is best described in terms of human endeavour, not in the language of scientific measurement.

  11. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......-evaluation of quantitative pathway analyses, and in statistical modelling of experimental data. A Plant Health Network has been established to facilitate interaction with EU Member States, especially in relation to data collection and co-ordination of risk assessment activities. At the current time a revision of the EU...

  12. A Non-Invasive Droplet Digital PCR (ddPCR Assay to Detect Paternal CFTR Mutations in the Cell-Free Fetal DNA (cffDNA of Three Pregnancies at Risk of Cystic Fibrosis via Compound Heterozygosity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel Debrand

    Full Text Available Non-invasive prenatal diagnosis (NIPD makes use of cell-free fetal DNA (cffDNA in the mother's bloodstream as an alternative to invasive sampling methods such as amniocentesis or CVS, which carry a 0.5-1% risk of fetal loss. We describe a droplet digital PCR (ddPCR assay designed to inform the testing options for couples whose offspring are at risk of suffering from cystic fibrosis via compound heterozygosity. By detecting the presence or absence of the paternal mutation in the cffDNA, it is possible to predict whether the fetus will be an unaffected carrier (absence or whether further invasive testing is indicated (presence.We selected a family in which the parents were known to carry different mutated CFTR alleles as our test system. NIPD was performed for three of their pregnancies during the first trimester (at around 11-12 weeks of gestation. Taqman probes were designed against an amplicon in exon 11 of the CFTR gene, to quantify the proportion of mutant (ΔF508-MUT; FAM and normal (ΔF508-NOR; VIC alleles at position c.1521_1523 of the CFTR gene.The assay correctly and unambiguously recognized the ΔF508-MUT CFTR allele in the cffDNA of all three proband fetuses and none of the six unaffected control fetuses. In conclusion, the Bio-Rad QX100 was found to be a cost-effective and technically undemanding platform for designing bespoke NIPD assays.

  13. Desertification risk assessment and management program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Akbari

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment provides the possibility of planning and management to prevent and reduce the risk of desertification. The present study is aimed to assess the hazard and risk of desertification and to develop management programs in the semi-arid western regions of Golestan Province in Iran. Desertification rate was obtained using the Iranian model of desertification potential assessment. Since the rating system was considered for the indicators, data analyses were carried out according to the Mann-Whitney test. The risk of desertification was calculated based on hazard, elements at risk and vulnerability assessment maps. The intensity of desertification was estimated to be medium. Among the factors affecting desertification, agriculture by the weighted average of 3.22 had the highest effect, followed by soil, vegetation, water and wind erosion criteria by weighted averages of 2.45, 2.32, 2.15 and 1.6 respectively. Desertification risk assessment results also showed that about 78% of central and northern parts of the region, with the largest population and residential centers, surface and underground water resources, agriculture and horticulture, is confronted with a high to very high degree of risk. Management plans and control measures, based on risk values were presented in four activities (with two management priorities under critical and non-critical conditions. For the management program with the largest area. Control measures and strategies such as the establishment of halophytic and xerophytic plants, drainage networks, resilient facilities and infrastructure were proposed. Reducing the risk of desertification, could play a crucial role in the sustainable development of drylands and desert ecosystems.

  14. TSCA Work Plan Chemical Risk Assessment: 1 ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    1-Bromopropane (CASRN 106-94-5): or 1-BP is a volatile organic chemical that is considered moderately persistent in the environment but does not have the potential to bioaccumulate in fish or other animals. The majority of the 1-BP production volume (~ 47%) is used as a vapor degreaser for optics electronics, plastics, and metals. 1-BP also is used as an aerosol solvent in cleaning products, as a spray fixative in arts and crafts, and as a spot cleaner in various industrial/commercial/consumer sectors. Focus of the Risk Assessment: The assessment will focus on uses of 1-BP in commercial (i.e., vapor degreasing, spray adhesives, and dry cleaning) and consumer applications (i.e., aerosol solvent cleaners and spray adhesives). Given the range of endpoints (i.e., cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), susceptible populations are expected to include adults (including pregnant women) in commercial uses and children (as bystanders) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women) for consumer uses. Thus, the assessment will focus on all humans/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its work on the a

  15. High risk process control system assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

    2009-07-01

    The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

  16. Fuzzy logic for pipelines risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Alidoosti

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Pipelines systems are identified to be the safest way of transporting oil and natural gas. One of the most important aspects in developing pipeline systems is determining the potential risks that implementers may encounter. Therefore, risk analysis can determine critical risk items to allocate the limited resources and time. Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP is one of the best methodologies for assessing the security risks. However, the most challenging problem in this method is uncertainty. Therefore, fuzzy set theory is used to model the uncertainty. Thus, Fuzzy RAMCAP is introduced in order to risk analysis and management for pipeline systems. Finally, a notional example from pipeline systems is provided to demonstrate an application of the proposed methodology.

  17. Risk propensity assessment in military special operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sicard, B; Jouve, E; Blin, O

    2001-10-01

    Risk taking, decision making, and stress factors are strongly associated in military operations. The authors used the Bond and Lader mood and alertness scale and a new scale, Evaluation of Risks (EVAR), to assess risk proneness in a maritime counter-terrorism exercise. EVAR items are distributed among five factors: self-control, danger seeking, energy, impulsiveness, and invincibility. In the study, 10 pilots were submitted to strenuous night flights with limited sleep deprivation. Compared with baseline data, pilots reported an increase in impulsiveness, whereas EVAR factors were consistent in a control group composed of 9 navy crew member. Correlations were observed between mood and alertness and risk factors. These results illustrate how EVAR can be used to evaluate change in risk proneness in individuals submitted to various stressors. But further studies are required to weigh stress factors and environmental conditions in risk propensity with a larger population of various age and personality traits.

  18. Dynamic adjustment of parental care in response to perceived paternity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neff, B D; Gross, M R

    2001-08-07

    Theories of parental care evolution predict that genetic relatedness will be an important variable in the amount of care a parent provides. However, current inferences of relatedness-based parental investment from studies in humans and birds remain challenged. No study has yet demonstrated parental care adjustment in a manner uncomplicated by life-history correlates or experimental design. We now present a unique test that controls for individual life histories and demonstrates paternity-related dynamic adjustments in parental care. Brood-rearing male bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus) that are cuckolded to a varying degree will either increase or decrease their parental investment in response to changing information on paternity during brood development. Specifically, as parental males detect paternity lost to cuckolders and, hence, a reduction in the value of their brood, they adaptively lower their level of parental care. Conversely, if they detect that their paternity is higher than previously assessed, they adaptively raise their level of parental care. This dynamic adjustment during brood rearing indicates the importance of genetic relatedness in parental investment decisions and provides needed empirical support for theoretical predictions.

  19. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jamali, K. [Dept. of Energy, Germantown, MD (United States). Core Technical Support and Facility Transition; Stack, D.W.; Sullivan, L.H.; Sanzo, D.L. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

    1997-08-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, `ensuring` plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is `safe.` Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude.

  20. FUZZY RISK ASSESSMENT OF AVIATION EVENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Sharov Valeriy

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the technique of fuzzy expert assessment of risk that existed at the time an event occurred. The risk assessment is based on matrix proposed by the Airline Risk Management Solution (ARMS Group. The matrix allows assessing such risks in the numerical values of the conditional average. The values of the indicators in the cells of the ma- trix obtained by use of data processing got from aviation insurance.In practice the risk assessment that existed at the time of the event is largely based on expert opinions, however ARMS Group does not offer the method of forming estimates expert group total opinion. Conventional methods of expert estimation and averaging of final grades is difficult due to the exponential nature of changes in risk values recorded in thecells, when considered by columns and by rows of the matrix.The proposed method of risk assessment uses the approach adopted in the formation of membership functions ac- cording to expert estimates in the theory of fuzzy sets. Experts are invited to classify each event according to one of the categories of potential damage and the effectiveness of barriers parry (defenses using all available information. Processing of results is conducted using the method of expert analysis of fuzzy data based on the approach of fuzzy set theory. The seriousness (damage of the occurrence and effectiveness of the barriers considered as linguistic variables, each of which has four term sets. This approach allows taking into account the opinions of experts and obtaining valid estimates of risk do not necessarily coincided with fixed values of matrix cells.

  1. Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

  2. Paternal ADHD Symptoms and Child Conduct Problems: Is Father Involvement Always Beneficial?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romirowsky, Abigail Mintz; Chronis-Tuscano, Andrea

    2013-01-01

    Background Maternal psychopathology robustly predicts poor developmental and treatment outcomes for children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Despite the high heritability of ADHD, few studies have examined associations between paternal ADHD symptoms and child adjustment, and none have also considered degree of paternal involvement in childrearing. Identification of modifiable risk factors for child conduct problems is particularly important in this population given the serious adverse outcomes resulting from this comorbidity. Methods This cross-sectional study examined the extent to which paternal involvement in childrearing moderated the association between paternal ADHD symptoms and child conduct problems among 37 children with ADHD and their biological fathers. Results Neither paternal ADHD symptoms nor involvement was independently associated with child conduct problems. However, the interaction between paternal ADHD symptoms and involvement was significant, such that paternal ADHD symptoms were positively associated with child conduct problems only when fathers were highly involved in childrearing. Conclusions The presence of adult ADHD symptoms may determine whether father involvement in childrearing has a positive or detrimental influence on comorbid child conduct problems. PMID:25250402

  3. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  4. Risks in hospitals. Assessment and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradea Ioana-Alexandra

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In a complex world, characterized by a multitude of risks, managers need to manage the risks they encounter, in an efficient way and in the shortest time possible. In the current economic crisis, the concept of hospital risk management, as the process in which is identified, analyzed, reduced, or avoided a risk that may affect the hospital, gained great importance. The Romanian health system, distinguished by: lack of transparency, poor funding, the loss of the valuable medical staff, lack of hospitals in villages and small towns, inability to engage patients due to the old and poor equipment, lack of research and problems in information privacy and cyber-security, requires an appropriate management, enabling risk managers to take decisions in order to avoid the occurrence of risks. Important for the functioning of every hospital is the perception of patients and their degree of satisfaction, regarding the quality of services, which depend largely on the quality of human resources. But what are the human resources weaknesses and risks from the patient point of view? What are the risk indicators which must be monitored to avoid risks? And also, which is the most useful method for measurement and assessment of risk?

  5. Low birthweight and prematurity in relation to paternal factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Basso, Olga; Olsen, Jørn; Christensen, Kaare

    1999-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The importance of paternal determinants in the occurrence of low birthweight and prematurity is not well known. We investigated these outcomes in siblings and paternal half siblings as a function of changes in putative external determinants between two births in fathers who had...... risk was 16.7% for preterm delivery and 16.8% for LBW. Changing female partner was, as expected, associated with a reduction in the recurrence risk for both outcomes (RR = 0.40; 95% CI: 0.27-0.60 for preterm delivery and RR = 0.38; 95% CI : 0.26-0.56 for LBW). None of the other studied factors...... factor of importance in the occurrence of LBW and preterm delivery....

  6. The influence of paternal age on down syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisch, Harry; Hyun, Grace; Golden, Robert; Hensle, Terry W; Olsson, Carl A; Liberson, Gary L

    2003-06-01

    Children born to older parents are at greater risk for genetic abnormalities, such as Down syndrome. The influence of maternal age on Down syndrome is well established but little is known about the genetic consequences of advanced paternal age. Data on the incidence of Down syndrome from 1983 to 1997 (3,419 cases) were obtained from the New York State Department of Health congenital malformations registry. Parental age was modeled as individual age groups and by a single linear covariate (drift model). The log linear chi-square test and a test of significance of different explanatory variables were used to evaluate these models to determine significance. We compared actual Down syndrome rates by maternal age with the estimated rate corrected for paternal age. From 1983 to 1997 a dramatic increase in the number of infants born to parents 35 years or older was observed. During the 15-year study period there was an increase of 111% and 60% in the number of mothers and fathers 35 years old or older, respectively. There was no parental age influence on Down syndrome until age 35 years and older. A paternal age effect was seen in association with a maternal age of 35 years and older, and it was most pronounced when maternal age was 40 years and older (p = 0.0004). In this later maternal age group the paternal contribution to Down syndrome was 50%. Advanced paternal age combined with maternal age significantly influences the incidence of Down syndrome. This effect may represent a paradigm for other genetic abnormalities in children of older fathers.

  7. Assessment of Risk for Recurrent Diverticulitis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sallinen, Ville; Mali, Juha; Leppäniemi, Ari; Mentula, Panu

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Recurrence of acute diverticulitis is common, and—especially complicated recurrence—causes significant morbidity. To prevent recurrence, selected patients have been offered prophylactic sigmoid resection. However, as there is no tool to predict whose diverticulitis will recur and, in particular, who will have complicated recurrence, the indications for sigmoid resections have been variable. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors predicting recurrence of acute diverticulitis. This is a retrospective cohort study of patients presenting with computed tomography–confirmed acute diverticulitis and treated nonresectionally during 2006 to 2010. Risk factors for recurrence were identified using uni- and multivariate Cox regression. A total of 512 patients were included. History of diverticulitis was an independent risk factor predicting uncomplicated recurrence of diverticulitis (1–2 earlier diverticulitis HR 1.6, 3 or more—HR 3.2). History of diverticulitis (HR 3.3), abscess (HR 6.2), and corticosteroid medication (HR 16.1) were independent risk factors for complicated recurrence. Based on regression coefficients, risk scoring was created: 1 point for history of diverticulitis, 2 points for abscess, and 3 points for corticosteroid medication. The risk score was unable to predict uncomplicated recurrence (AUC 0.48), but was able to predict complicated recurrence (AUC 0.80). Patients were further divided into low-risk (0–2 points) and high-risk (>2 points) groups. Low-risk and high-risk groups had 3% and 43% 5-year complicated recurrence rates, respectively. Risk for complicated recurrence of acute diverticulitis can be assessed using risk scoring. The risk for uncomplicated recurrence increases along with increasing number of previous diverticulitis. PMID:25715253

  8. Risk factors for and assessment of constipation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Sherree; Hungerford, Catherine

    2015-04-01

    Constipation commonly occurs in older people, particularly in hospital or residential care settings, and leads to decreased quality of life and increased healthcare costs. Despite its frequency, however, nurses often overlook the condition. One possible reason for this may be the lack of appropriate tools or scales for nurses to assess risk factors for developing constipation. This article identifies, from the academic literature, 14 risk factors for developing constipation in older people. These factors are then considered in light of four common constipation assessment charts. The article concludes by arguing the need for more comprehensive assessment tools to, firstly, identify risk factors; and, secondly, support the implementation of appropriate preventative strategies that will enable better health outcomes for older people.

  9. Assessing and Mitigating Risks in Computer Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Netland, Lars-Helge

    2008-01-01

    When it comes to non-trivial networked computer systems, bulletproof security is very hard to achieve. Over a system's lifetime new security risks are likely to emerge from e.g. newly discovered classes of vulnerabilities or the arrival of new threat agents. Given the dynamic environment in which computer systems are deployed, continuous evaluations and adjustments are wiser than one-shot e orts for perfection. Security risk management focuses on assessing and treating security...

  10. Guyana Rice Supply Chain Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2011-01-01

    This report is the outcome of assessment and is intended as an advisory note to the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) and Guyana Rice Development Board (GRDB) to enable them to identify a strategy and potential public investments to improve current risk-management practices in the rice supply chain. This report identifies the major risks facing the rice supply chain, ranks them in terms of the...

  11. The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Burda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.

  12. Paternal inheritance in mealybugs (Hemiptera: Coccoidea: Pseudococcidae)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kol-Maimon, Hofit; Mendel, Zvi; Franco, José Carlos; Ghanim, Murad

    2014-10-01

    Mealybugs have a haplodiploid reproduction system, with paternal genome elimination (PGE); the males are diploid soon after fertilization, but during embryogenesis, the male paternal set of chromosomes becomes heterochromatic (HC) and therefore inactive. Previous studies have suggested that paternal genes can be passed on from mealybug males to their sons, but not necessarily by any son, to the next generation. We employed crosses between two mealybug species— Planococcus ficus (Signoret) and Planococcus citri (Risso)—and between two populations of P. ficus, which differ in their mode of pheromone attraction, in order to demonstrate paternal inheritance from males to F2 through F1 male hybrids. Two traits were monitored through three generations: mode of male pheromone attraction (pherotype) and sequences of the internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2) gene segment (genotype). Our results demonstrate that paternal inheritance in mealybugs can occur from males to their F2 offspring, through F1 males (paternal line). F2 backcrossed hybrid males expressed paternal pherotypes and ITS2 genotypes although their mother originated through a maternal population. Further results revealed other, hitherto unknown, aspects of inheritance in mealybugs, such as that hybridization between the two species caused absence of paternal traits in F2 hybrid females produced by F1 hybrid females. Furthermore, hybridization between the two species raised the question of whether unattracted males have any role in the interactions between P. ficus and P. citri.

  13. [Patient safety in antibiotics administration: Risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maqueda Palau, M; Pérez Juan, E

    To determine the level of risk in the preparation and administration of antibiotics frequently used in the Intensive Care Unit using a risk matrix. A study was conducted using situation analysis and literature review of databases, protocols and good practice guidelines on intravenous therapy, drugs, and their administration routes. The most used antibiotics in the ICU registered in the ENVIN-HELICS program from 1 April to 30 June 2015 were selected. In this period, 257 patients received antimicrobial treatment and 26 antibiotics were evaluated. Variables studied: A risk assessment of each antibiotic using the scale Risk Assessment Tool, of the National Patient Safety Agency, as well as pH, osmolarity, type of catheter recommended for administration, and compatibility and incompatibility with other antibiotics studied. Almost two-thirds (65.3%) of antibiotics had more than 3 risk factors (represented by a yellow stripe), with the remaining 34.7% of antibiotics having between 0 and 2 risk factors (represented by a green stripe). There were no antibiotics with 6 or more risk factors (represented by a red stripe). Most drugs needed reconstitution, additional dilution, and the use of part of the vial to administer the prescribed dose. More than half of the antibiotics studied had a moderate risk level; thus measures should be adopted in order to reduce it. The risk matrix is a useful tool for the assessment and detection of weaknesses associated with the preparation and administration of intravenous antibiotics. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  14. Psychiatric disorders among offspring of depressed mothers: associations with paternal psychopathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marmorstein, Naomi R; Malone, Stephen M; Iacono, William G

    2004-09-01

    The association between maternal depression and offspring dysfunction is well documented; however, little attention has been paid to psychopathology in the partners of these depressed mothers or to how paternal psychopathology might influence the relationship between maternal depression and offspring dysfunction. The purpose of this study was to explore whether major depression and/or antisocial behavior tended to occur more frequently among partners of depressed mothers (compared to partners of nondepressed mothers) and to examine how these paternal disorders related to offspring psychopathology. Participants were drawn from the Minnesota Twin Family Study, a community-based study of twins and their parents. Depressed and nondepressed mothers, their partners (the biological fathers of the twins), and their 17-year-old offspring were included. Structured interviews were used to assess participants for the presence of major depression, conduct disorder, and adult antisocial behavior. Depressed mothers tended to partner with antisocial fathers. Depression in mothers and antisocial behavior in fathers were both significantly and independently associated with offspring depression and conduct disorder. No interactions of the parental diagnoses with each other or with the gender of the offspring were found. Many offspring of depressed mothers experience the additional risk of having an antisocial father. The implications of these findings for risk among the offspring of depressed mothers are discussed.

  15. [Benefit-risk assessment of vaccination strategies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanslik, Thomas; Boëlle, Pierre Yves

    2007-04-01

    This article summarises the various stages of the risk/benefit assessment of vaccination strategies. Establishing the awaited effectiveness of a vaccination strategy supposes to have an epidemiologic description of the disease to be prevented. The effectiveness of the vaccine strategy will be thus expressed in numbers of cases, hospitalizations or deaths avoided. The effectiveness can be direct, expressed as the reduction of the incidence of the infectious disease in the vaccinated subjects compared to unvaccinated subjects. It can also be indirect, the unvaccinated persons being protected by the suspension in circulation of the pathogenic agent, consecutive to the implementation of the vaccination campaign. The risks of vaccination related to the adverse effects detected during the clinical trials preceding marketing are well quantified, but other risks can occur after marketing: e.g., serious and unexpected adverse effects detected by vaccinovigilance systems, or risk of increase in the age of cases if the vaccination coverage is insufficient. The medico-economic evaluation forms a part of the risks/benefit assessment, by positioning the vaccine strategy comparatively with other interventions for health. Epidemiologic and vaccinovigilance informations must be updated very regularly, which underlines the need for having an operational and reliable real time monitoring system to accompany the vaccination strategies. Lastly, in the context of uncertainty which often accompanies the risks/benefit assessments, it is important that an adapted communication towards the public and the doctors is planned.

  16. Sensitivity analysis in quantitative microbial risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwieterin, M H; van Gerwen, S J

    2000-07-15

    The occurrence of foodborne disease remains a widespread problem in both the developing and the developed world. A systematic and quantitative evaluation of food safety is important to control the risk of foodborne diseases. World-wide, many initiatives are being taken to develop quantitative risk analysis. However, the quantitative evaluation of food safety in all its aspects is very complex, especially since in many cases specific parameter values are not available. Often many variables have large statistical variability while the quantitative effect of various phenomena is unknown. Therefore, sensitivity analysis can be a useful tool to determine the main risk-determining phenomena, as well as the aspects that mainly determine the inaccuracy in the risk estimate. This paper presents three stages of sensitivity analysis. First, deterministic analysis selects the most relevant determinants for risk. Overlooking of exceptional, but relevant cases is prevented by a second, worst-case analysis. This analysis finds relevant process steps in worst-case situations, and shows the relevance of variations of factors for risk. The third, stochastic analysis, studies the effects of variations of factors for the variability of risk estimates. Care must be taken that the assumptions made as well as the results are clearly communicated. Stochastic risk estimates are, like deterministic ones, just as good (or bad) as the available data, and the stochastic analysis must not be used to mask lack of information. Sensitivity analysis is a valuable tool in quantitative risk assessment by determining critical aspects and effects of variations.

  17. RISK ASSESSMENT FOR THE DYE AND PIGMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This risk assessment calculates the maximum loadings of constituents found in dyes and pigment industries waste streams which can be disposed in different types of waste management units without causing health benchmarks to be exceeded at plausible receptor locations. The assessment focuses on potential risks from volatilization and leaching to groundwater of constituents disposed in surface impoundments and landfills with either clay liners or composite liners. This product will be used by EPA decision makers to assist in determining whether certain waste streams generated by the dyes and pigments industries should be designated as hazardous.

  18. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...

  19. Memories of paternal relations are associated with coping and defense mechanisms in breast cancer patients: an observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiara Renzi

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Breast cancer diagnosis and treatment represent stressful events that demand emotional adjustment, thus recruiting coping strategies and defense mechanisms. As parental relations were shown to influence emotion regulation patterns and adaptive processes in adulthood, the present study investigated whether they are specifically associated to coping and defense mechanisms in patients with breast cancer. Methods One hundred and ten women hospitalized for breast cancer surgery were administered questionnaires assessing coping with cancer, defense mechanisms, and memories of parental bonding in childhood. Results High levels of paternal overprotection were associated with less mature defenses, withdrawal and fantasy and less adaptive coping mechanisms, such as hopelessness/helplessness. Low levels of paternal care were associated with a greater use of repression. No association was found between maternal care, overprotection, coping and defense mechanisms. Immature defenses correlated positively with less adaptive coping styles, while mature defenses were positively associated to a fighting spirit and to fatalism, and inversely related to less adaptive coping styles. Conclusions These data suggest that paternal relations in childhood are associated with emotional, cognitive, and behavioral regulation in adjusting to cancer immediately after surgery. Early experiences of bonding may constitute a relevant index for adaptation to cancer, indicating which patients are at risk and should be considered for psychological interventions.

  20. Memories of paternal relations are associated with coping and defense mechanisms in breast cancer patients: an observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renzi, Chiara; Perinel, Giada; Arnaboldi, Paola; Gandini, Sara; Vadilonga, Valeria; Rotmensz, Nicole; Tagini, Angela; Didier, Florence; Pravettoni, Gabriella

    2017-11-09

    Breast cancer diagnosis and treatment represent stressful events that demand emotional adjustment, thus recruiting coping strategies and defense mechanisms. As parental relations were shown to influence emotion regulation patterns and adaptive processes in adulthood, the present study investigated whether they are specifically associated to coping and defense mechanisms in patients with breast cancer. One hundred and ten women hospitalized for breast cancer surgery were administered questionnaires assessing coping with cancer, defense mechanisms, and memories of parental bonding in childhood. High levels of paternal overprotection were associated with less mature defenses, withdrawal and fantasy and less adaptive coping mechanisms, such as hopelessness/helplessness. Low levels of paternal care were associated with a greater use of repression. No association was found between maternal care, overprotection, coping and defense mechanisms. Immature defenses correlated positively with less adaptive coping styles, while mature defenses were positively associated to a fighting spirit and to fatalism, and inversely related to less adaptive coping styles. These data suggest that paternal relations in childhood are associated with emotional, cognitive, and behavioral regulation in adjusting to cancer immediately after surgery. Early experiences of bonding may constitute a relevant index for adaptation to cancer, indicating which patients are at risk and should be considered for psychological interventions.

  1. Paternal obesity, interventions, and mechanistic pathways to impaired health in offspring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McPherson, Nicole O; Fullston, Tod; Aitken, R John; Lane, Michelle

    2014-01-01

    The global rates of male overweight/obesity are rising, approaching 70% of the total adult population in Western nations. Overweight/obesity increases the risk of chronic diseases; however, there is increasing awareness that male obesity negatively impacts fertility, subsequent pregnancy, and the offspring health burden. Developmental programming is well defined in mothers; however, it is becoming increasingly evident that developmental programming can be paternally initiated and mediated through paternal obesity. Both human and rodent models have established that paternal obesity impairs sex hormones, basic sperm function, and molecular composition. This results in perturbed embryo development and health and an increased subsequent offspring disease burden in both sexes. The reversibility of obesity-induced parental programming has only recently received attention. Promising results in animal models utilizing diet and exercise interventions have shown improvements in sperm function and molecular composition, resulting in restorations of both embryo and fetal health and subsequent male offspring fertility. The direct mode for paternal inheritance is likely mediated via spermatozoa. We propose two main theories for the origin of male obesity-induced paternal programming: (1) accumulation of sperm DNA damage resulting in de novo mutations in the embryo and (2) changes in sperm epigenetic marks (microRNA, methylation, or acetylation) altering the access, transcription, and translation of paternally derived genes during early embryogenesis. Paternal overweight/obesity induces paternal programming of offspring phenotypes likely mediated through genetic and epigenetic changes in spermatozoa. These programmed changes to offspring health appear to be partially restored via diet/exercise interventions in obese fathers preconception, which have been shown to improve aspects of sperm DNA integrity. However, the majority of data surrounding paternal obesity and offspring

  2. Influence of achieved paternity on quality of life in testicular cancer survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoehr, Brigitte; Schachtner, Lydia; Pichler, Renate; Holzner, Bernhard; Giesinger, Johannes; Oberguggenberger, Anne; Leonhartsberger, Nicolai; Horninger, Wolfgang; Steiner, Hannes

    2013-04-01

    To investigate the influence of achieved/non-achieved paternity on quality of life (QoL) in testicular cancer (TC) survivors. We invited TC survivors treated at our department between 1989 and 2006 to complete a QoL assessment, including the European Organisation for the Research and Treatment of Cancer QoL questionnaire, EORTC QLQ-C30 (version 3.0©)/+ TC26, and follow-up questions. A total of 311 TC survivors answered the questionnaire, of whom 207 patients who did not desire paternity were excluded. The remaining 104 patients who stated a desire for paternity after TC treatment were further divided in group A (TC survivors who achieved paternity; n = 51) and group B (TC survivors who did not achieve paternity; n = 53). The data obtained were statistically analysed. Significant differences between groups regarding QoL were detected for social functioning (P = 0.002), emotional functioning (P = 0.001), general QoL (P = 0.018), fatigue (P = 0.025), pain (P = 0.01), sleeping problems (P = 0.024), treatment satisfaction (P = 0.039), financial aspects (P = 0.006), sexual problems (P = 0.017), body image problems (P paternity. Counselling patients early at diagnosis as well as using cryopreservation of semen in all potential patients before treatment (only excluding patients definitely claiming they do not wish to achieve paternity) should therefore be regarded as the standard of care. © 2012 BJU INTERNATIONAL.

  3. Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

    2016-12-01

    Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a

  4. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  5. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  6. Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Apel

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood disaster mitigation strategies should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk combined with a thorough investigation of the uncertainties associated with the risk assessment procedure. Within the 'German Research Network of Natural Disasters' (DFNK the working group 'Flood Risk Analysis' investigated the flood process chain from precipitation, runoff generation and concentration in the catchment, flood routing in the river network, possible failure of flood protection measures, inundation to economic damage. The working group represented each of these processes by deterministic, spatially distributed models at different scales. While these models provide the necessary understanding of the flood process chain, they are not suitable for risk and uncertainty analyses due to their complex nature and high CPU-time demand. We have therefore developed a stochastic flood risk model consisting of simplified model components associated with the components of the process chain. We parameterised these model components based on the results of the complex deterministic models and used them for the risk and uncertainty analysis in a Monte Carlo framework. The Monte Carlo framework is hierarchically structured in two layers representing two different sources of uncertainty, aleatory uncertainty (due to natural and anthropogenic variability and epistemic uncertainty (due to incomplete knowledge of the system. The model allows us to calculate probabilities of occurrence for events of different magnitudes along with the expected economic damage in a target area in the first layer of the Monte Carlo framework, i.e. to assess the economic risks, and to derive uncertainty bounds associated with these risks in the second layer. It is also possible to identify the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty. It could be shown that the uncertainty caused by epistemic sources significantly alters the results

  7. Heuristics structure and pervade formal risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGillivray, Brian H

    2014-04-01

    Lay perceptions of risk appear rooted more in heuristics than in reason. A major concern of the risk regulation literature is that such "error-strewn" perceptions may be replicated in policy, as governments respond to the (mis)fears of the citizenry. This has led many to advocate a relatively technocratic approach to regulating risk, characterized by high reliance on formal risk and cost-benefit analysis. However, through two studies of chemicals regulation, we show that the formal assessment of risk is pervaded by its own set of heuristics. These include rules to categorize potential threats, define what constitutes valid data, guide causal inference, and to select and apply formal models. Some of these heuristics lay claim to theoretical or empirical justifications, others are more back-of-the-envelope calculations, while still more purport not to reflect some truth but simply to constrain discretion or perform a desk-clearing function. These heuristics can be understood as a way of authenticating or formalizing risk assessment as a scientific practice, representing a series of rules for bounding problems, collecting data, and interpreting evidence (a methodology). Heuristics are indispensable elements of induction. And so they are not problematic per se, but they can become so when treated as laws rather than as contingent and provisional rules. Pitfalls include the potential for systematic error, masking uncertainties, strategic manipulation, and entrenchment. Our central claim is that by studying the rules of risk assessment qua rules, we develop a novel representation of the methods, conventions, and biases of the prior art. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  9. Risk assessment and management logistics chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Vikulov

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the context of economic globalization and increasing complexity of economic relations enterprises need methods and techniques to improve and sustain their position on the global market. Integration processes offer business new opportunities, but at the same time present new challenges for the management, including the key objectives of the risk management. Method: On the basis of analysis tools known from the pertinent literature (Supply Chain Management and Supply Chain Risk Management methods, methods of probability theory, methods of risk management, methods of statistics the authors of this paper proposed their own risk assessment method and the method of management of logistics chains. The proposed tool is a specific hybrid of solutions known from the literature. Results: The presented method has been successfully used within the frames of economic-mathematical model of industrial enterprises. Indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier are considered in this paper. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers. Conclusion: Every organization, which starting the process of integration with supplier and customers, needs to use tools, methodologies and techniques for identification of "weak links" in the supply chain. The proposed method allows to fix risk origin places in various links of the supply chain and to identify "weak links" of a logistic chain that may occur in the future. The method is a useful tool for managing not only risks and risk situations, but also to improve the efficiency of current assets management by providing the ability to optimize the level of risk in the current assets management of the industrial enterprise.

  10. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Dawson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

  11. Building caries risk assessment models for children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, X-L; Hsu, C-Y S; Xu, Y; Hwarng, H B; Loh, T; Koh, D

    2010-06-01

    Despite the well-recognized importance of caries risk assessment, practical models remain to be established. This study was designed to develop biopsychosocial models for caries risk assessment in various settings. With a questionnaire, an oral examination, and biological (salivary, microbiological, and plaque pH) tests, a prospective study was conducted among 1782 children aged 3-6 years, with 1576 (88.4%) participants followed in 12 months. Multiple risk factors, indicators, and protective factors were identified. Various risk assessment models were constructed by the random selection of 50% of the cases and further validated in the remaining cases. For the prediction of a "one-year caries increment", screening models without biological tests achieved a sensitivity/specificity of 82%/73%; with biological tests, full-blown models achieved the sensitivity/specificity of 90%/90%. For identification of a quarter of the children with high caries burden (baseline dmft > 2), a community-screening model requiring only a questionnaire reached a sensitivity/specificity of 82%/81%. These models are promising tools for cost-effective caries control and evidence-based treatment planning. decayed, missing, filled teeth in primary dentition (dmft); receiver operation characteristics (ROC); relative risk (RR); confidence interval (CI); National Institutes of Health (NIH); World Health Organization (WHO); US Department of Health and Human Services (US/DHHS); American Academy of Pediatric Dentistry (AAPD).

  12. Jet reliability study Survey and Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Esteban, G.

    2015-07-01

    Culham Center for Fusion Energy (CCFE) in UK has been contracted to undertake a second Deuterium-Tritium Experiment (DTE2) using Join European Torus (JET) in 2017, in support of technical developments for the ITER project. In order to manage risks of delay or early project termination CCFE has adopted a risk based inspection (RBI) process to identify the systems which could influence the successful delivery of DTE2 and in turn to identify by a basic risk assessment process those systems or components which require mitigating action in order to minimize risk. In this context, the primary purpose of the RBI is to address issues of reliability and satisfactory functionality in a similar way to that which a power plant operator would take to address its commercial risks in the event of loss of generating capacity. The objective of this presentation is describe the activities developed for Idom to deliver the survey, interviews and risk assessment of different systems of JET with the aim to identify the critical components and system that could affect the operation of JET during the DTE2 experiment. (Author)

  13. Health Risk Assessment for Organotins in Textiles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen PJCM; Veen MP van; Speijers GJA; CSR; LBM

    2000-01-01

    In January 1998 RIVM was asked to carry out a preliminary risk assessment on organic tin compounds (organotins) in textiles. Measurements carried out by the Dutch Health Protection Inspectorate had shown these potentially toxic compounds to be present in several consumer products, including items of

  14. Information Technology Sector Baseline Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-08-01

    Technology Sector Baseline Risk Assessment extended periods could result in communications disruptions or congestion , if...function. Concern Threats to BGP and other interdomain router operating systems and intra-domain protocols are the primary vulnerabilities within the...facilities [C] Negatively affect ASN/IP block allocation [C] Impair Crisis response [C] Interdomain /Backbone connectivity impact [V] BGP [V

  15. Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms (GMOs)

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Jane

    2011-09-30

    Sep 30, 2011 ... Key words: Risk assessment, biosafety, Malaysian Biosafety Act 2007, genetically modified organisms. (GMOs). INTRODUCTION. Nowadays, with ... from the early stages of genetic engineering, legal frameworks were set up to ensure the ..... Since the advances in gene technology have led to speculation ...

  16. Next generation of microbiological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Besten, den Heidy M.W.; Amézquita, Alejandro; Bover-Cid, Sara; Dagnas, Stéphane; Ellouze, Mariem; Guillou, Sandrine; Nychas, George; O'Mahony, Cian; Pérez-Rodriguez, Fernando; Membré, Jeanne Marie

    2017-01-01

    In food safety and public health risk evaluations, microbiological exposure assessment plays a central role as it provides an estimation of both the likelihood and the level of the microbial hazard in a specified consumer portion of food and takes microbial behaviour into account. While until now

  17. QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR MICROBIAL AGENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Compared to chemical risk assessment, the process for microbial agents and infectious disease is more complex because of host factors and the variety of settings in which disease transmission can occur. While the National Academy of Science has established a paradigm for performi...

  18. Instrument Development for Nanomaterial Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brossell, D.

    2016-01-01

    Nanomaterials are a growing source for innovation. However, the very properties that make them so effective for their desired purpose might also render them more hazardous towards humans and the environment. Adequate risk assessment tools are often missing, partly due to instrumental gaps in

  19. Ecological Risk Assessment in Water Resource Management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The US EPA published guidelines for the application of ecological risk assessment (ERA) in the USA in 1998 (US EPA 1998). The process diagram derived by Murray and Claassen (1999) in an evaluation of the US EPA framework is discussed in the context of the South African National Water Act. The evaluation discusses ...

  20. Dermal absorption and toxicological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buist, H.

    2016-01-01

    Absorption of toxic substances via the skin is an important phenomenon in the assessment of the risk of exposure to these substances. People are exposed to a variety of substances and products via the skin, either directly or indirectly, while at work, at home or in public space. Pesticides, organic

  1. exLOPA for explosion risks assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markowski, Adam S

    2007-04-11

    The European Union regulations require safety and health protection of workers who are potentially at risk from explosive atmosphere areas. According to the requirements, the operators of installations where potentially explosive atmosphere can occur are obliged to produce an explosion protection document. The key objective of this document is the assessment of explosion risks. This paper is concerned with the so-called explosion layer of protection analysis (exLOPA), which allows for semi-quantitative explosion risk assessment for process plants where explosive atmospheres occur. The exLOPA is based on the original work of CCPS for LOPA but takes into account some typical factors appropriate for explosion, like the probability that an explosive atmosphere will occur, probability that sources of ignition will be present and become effective as well as the probability of failure on demand for appropriate explosion prevention and mitigation means.

  2. Risk assessment of integrated electronic health records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjornsson, Bjarni Thor; Sigurdardottir, Gudlaug; Stefansson, Stefan Orri

    2010-01-01

    The paper describes the security concerns related to Electronic Health Records (EHR) both in registration of data and integration of systems. A description of the current state of EHR systems in Iceland is provided, along with the Ministry of Health's future vision and plans. New legislation provides the opportunity for increased integration of EHRs and further collaboration between institutions. Integration of systems, along with greater availability and access to EHR data, requires increased security awareness since additional risks are introduced. The paper describes the core principles of information security as it applies to EHR systems and data. The concepts of confidentiality, integrity, availability, accountability and traceability are introduced and described. The paper discusses the legal requirements and importance of performing risk assessment for EHR data. Risk assessment methodology according to the ISO/IEC 27001 information security standard is described with examples on how it is applied to EHR systems.

  3. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  4. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janeck J. Scott‐Fordsmand

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA for nanomaterials (NMs is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i materials, (ii release, fate and exposure, (iii hazard and (iv risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES and relevant exposure scenarios (RES and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC, but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC, either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

  5. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J.; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Hristozov, Danail; Marcomini, Antonio; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Landsiedel, Robert; Tran, Lang; Oomen, Agnes G.; Bos, Peter M. J.

    2017-01-01

    An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for nanomaterials (NMs) is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i) materials, (ii) release, fate and exposure, (iii) hazard and (iv) risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES) and relevant exposure scenarios (RES) and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s) NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC), but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC), either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC) or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models. PMID:29048395

  6. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  7. Integrated ecological risk assessment of dioxin compounds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sany, Seyedeh Belin Tavakoly; Hashim, Rosli; Rezayi, Majid; Rahman, Mohammad Azizur; Razavizadeh, Bi Bi Marzieh; Abouzari-lotf, Ebrahim; Karlen, David J

    2015-08-01

    Current ecological risk assessment (ERA) schemes focus mainly on bioaccumulation and toxicity of pollutants in individual organisms. Ecological models are tools mainly used to assess ecological risks of pollutants to ecosystems, communities, and populations. Their main advantage is the relatively direct integration of the species sensitivity to organic pollutants, the fate and mechanism of action in the environment of toxicants, and life-history features of the individual organism of concern. To promote scientific consensus on ERA schemes, this review is intended to provide a guideline on short-term ERA involving dioxin chemicals and to identify key findings for exposure assessment based on policies of different agencies. It also presents possible adverse effects of dioxins on ecosystems, toxicity equivalence methodology, environmental fate and transport modeling, and development of stressor-response profiles for dioxin-like chemicals.

  8. Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

    2017-04-01

    The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

  9. Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinhardt, Jason C; Chen, Xi; Liu, Wenhao; Manchev, Petar; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

    2016-02-01

    Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Silent Aircraft Initiative Concept Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nickol, Craig L.

    2008-01-01

    A risk assessment of the Silent Aircraft Initiative's SAX-40 concept design for extremely low noise has been performed. A NASA team developed a list of 27 risk items, and evaluated the level of risk for each item in terms of the likelihood that the risk would occur and the consequences of the occurrence. The following risk items were identified as high risk, meaning that the combination of likelihood and consequence put them into the top one-fourth of the risk matrix: structures and weight prediction; boundary-layer ingestion (BLI) and inlet design; variable-area exhaust and thrust vectoring; displaced-threshold and continuous descent approach (CDA) operational concepts; cost; human factors; and overall noise performance. Several advanced-technology baseline concepts were created to serve as a basis for comparison to the SAX-40 concept. These comparisons indicate that the SAX-40 would have significantly greater research, development, test, and engineering (RDT&E) and production costs than a conventional aircraft with similar technology levels. Therefore, the cost of obtaining the extremely low noise capability that has been estimated for the SAX-40 is significant. The SAX-40 concept design proved successful in focusing attention toward low noise technologies and in raising public awareness of the issue.

  11. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

    1999-12-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

  12. Epigenetic effects of paternal diet on offspring: emphasis on obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slyvka, Yuriy; Zhang, Yizhu; Nowak, Felicia V

    2015-02-01

    Overnutrition, obesity, and the rise in associated comorbidities are widely recognized as preventable challenges to global health. Behavioral, metabolic, and epigenetic influences that alter the epigenome, when passed on to offspring, can increase their risk of developing an altered metabolic profile. This review is focused on the role of paternal inheritance as demonstrated by clinical, epidemiological, and experimental models. Development of additional experimental models that resemble the specific epigenetic sensitive situations in human studies will be essential to explore paternally induced trans-generational effects that are mediated, primarily, by epigenetic effects. Further elucidation of epigenetic marks will help identify preventive and therapeutic targets, which in combination with healthy lifestyle choices, can diminish the growing tide of obesity, type 2 diabetes, and other related disorders.

  13. Assessing calibration of prognostic risk scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowson, Cynthia S; Atkinson, Elizabeth J; Therneau, Terry M

    2016-08-01

    Current methods used to assess calibration are limited, particularly in the assessment of prognostic models. Methods for testing and visualizing calibration (e.g. the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration slope) have been well thought out in the binary regression setting. However, extension of these methods to Cox models is less well known and could be improved. We describe a model-based framework for the assessment of calibration in the binary setting that provides natural extensions to the survival data setting. We show that Poisson regression models can be used to easily assess calibration in prognostic models. In addition, we show that a calibration test suggested for use in survival data has poor performance. Finally, we apply these methods to the problem of external validation of a risk score developed for the general population when assessed in a special patient population (i.e. patients with particular comorbidities, such as rheumatoid arthritis). © The Author(s) 2013.

  14. Experimentally simulating paternity uncertainty: immediate and long-term responses of male and female reed warblers Acrocephalus scirpaceus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herbert Hoi

    Full Text Available In many socially monogamous species, both sexes seek copulation outside the pair bond in order to increase their reproductive success. In response, males adopt counter-strategies to combat the risk of losing paternity. However, no study so far has tried to experimentally prove the function of behaviour for paternity assurance. Introducing a potential extra-pair partner during the female fertile period provides a standardised method to examine how pair members respond immediately (e.g. increase mate guarding or copulation frequency or long term (e.g. later parental investment and paternity uncertainty. In this study on a socially monogamous passerine species, we experimentally confronted pairs of reed warblers with a conspecific male (caged male simulating an intruder during egg-laying. Our results revealed that occurrence of an intruder during that period triggered aggression against the intruder, depending on the presence of the female. The male territory owner also attacked the female partner to drive her away from the intruder. Thus territory defence in reed warblers also serves to protect paternity. The increase in paternity uncertainty did not affect later paternal investment. Paternal investment was also independent of the actual paternity losses. In females, the experiment elicited both, immediate and long-term responses. E.g. female copulation solicitations during the intruder experiment were only observed for females which later turned out to have extra-pair chicks in their nest. In relation to long term response females faced with an intruder invested later less in offspring feeding, and had less extra-pair chicks in their nests. Extra-pair paternity also seems to be affected by female quality (body size. In conclusion female reed warblers seem to seek extra-pair fertilizations but we could demonstrate that males adopt paternity assurance tactics which seems to efficiently help them to reduce paternity uncertainty.

  15. Chemical Mixtures Health Risk Assessment: Overview of Exposure Assessment, Whole Mixtures Assessments; Basic Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    This problems-based, half-day, introductory workshop focuses on methods to assess health risks posed by exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment. Chemical mixtures health risk assessment methods continue to be developed and evolve to address concerns over health risks f...

  16. Clinical risk assessment in intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Asefzadeh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin′s Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA. Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN was in respiratory care "Ventilator′s alarm malfunction (no alarm" with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal "not washing the NG-Tube" with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care.

  17. Biostatistics series module 8: Assessing risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avijit Hazra

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In observational studies, as well as in interventional ones, it is frequently necessary to estimate risk that is the association between an observed outcome or event and exposure to one or more factors that may be contributing to the event. Understanding incidence and prevalence are the starting point in any discussion of risk assessment. Incidence rate uses person-time as the denominator rather than a simple count. Ideally, rates and ratios estimated from samples should be presented with their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs. To assess the importance of an individual risk factor, it is necessary to compare the risk of the outcome in the exposed group with that in the nonexposed group. A comparison between risks in different groups can be made by examining either their ratio or the difference between them. The 2 × 2 contingency table comes in handy in the calculation of ratios. Odds ratio (OR is the ratio of the odds of an event in the exposed group, to the odds of the same event in the nonexposed group. It can range from zero to infinity. When the odds of an outcome in the two groups are identical, then the OR equals one. OR >1 indicates exposure increases risk while OR <1 indicates that exposure is protecting against risk. The OR should be presented with its 95% CI to enable more meaningful interpretation – if this interval includes 1, then even a relatively large OR will not carry much weight. The relative risk (RR denotes the ratio of risk (probability of event in exposed group to risk of same event in the nonexposed group. Its interpretation is similar (but not identical to the OR. If the event in question is relatively uncommon, values of OR and RR tend to be similar. Absolute risk reduction (ARR is a measure of the effectiveness of an intervention with respect to a dichotomous event. It is calculated as proportion experiencing the event in control group minus the proportion experiencing the event in treated group. It is

  18. Beyond Boys’ Bad Behavior: Paternal Incarceration and Cognitive Development in Middle Childhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haskins, Anna R.

    2017-01-01

    A growing number of American school-aged children have incarcerated or formally incarcerated parents necessitating a more comprehensive understanding of the intergenerational effects of mass imprisonment. Using the Fragile Families Study, I assess whether having an incarcerated father impacts children’s cognitive skill development into middle childhood. While previous studies have primarily found effects for boys’ behavior problems, matching models and sensitivity analyses demonstrate that experiencing paternal incarceration by age 9 is associated with lower cognitive skills for both boys and girls and these negative effects hold net of a pre-paternal incarceration measure of child cognitive ability. Moreover, I estimate that paternal incarceration explains between 2 and 15 percent of the Black-White achievement gap at age 9. These findings represent new outcomes of importance and suggest that paternal incarceration may play an even larger role in the production of intergenerational inequalities for American children than previously documented. PMID:28579646

  19. Beyond Boys' Bad Behavior: Paternal Incarceration and Cognitive Development in Middle Childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haskins, Anna R

    2016-12-07

    A growing number of American school-aged children have incarcerated or formally incarcerated parents necessitating a more comprehensive understanding of the intergenerational effects of mass imprisonment. Using the Fragile Families Study, I assess whether having an incarcerated father impacts children's cognitive skill development into middle childhood. While previous studies have primarily found effects for boys' behavior problems, matching models and sensitivity analyses demonstrate that experiencing paternal incarceration by age 9 is associated with lower cognitive skills for both boys and girls and these negative effects hold net of a pre-paternal incarceration measure of child cognitive ability. Moreover, I estimate that paternal incarceration explains between 2 and 15 percent of the Black-White achievement gap at age 9. These findings represent new outcomes of importance and suggest that paternal incarceration may play an even larger role in the production of intergenerational inequalities for American children than previously documented.

  20. Resources for global risk assessment: the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wullenweber, Andrea; Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

    2008-11-15

    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database (www.tera.org/iter) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm, and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

  1. Groundwater Risk Assessment Model (GRAM: Groundwater Risk Assessment Model for Wellfield Protection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nara Somaratne

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available A groundwater risk assessment was carried out for 30 potable water supply systems under a framework of protecting drinking water quality across South Australia. A semi-quantitative Groundwater Risk Assessment Model (GRAM was developed based on a “multi-barrier” approach using likelihood of release, contaminant pathway and consequence equation. Groundwater vulnerability and well integrity have been incorporated to the pathway component of the risk equation. The land use of the study basins varies from protected water reserves to heavily stocked grazing lands. Based on the risk assessment, 15 systems were considered as low risk, four as medium and 11 systems as at high risk. The GRAM risk levels were comparable with indicator bacteria—total coliform—detection. Most high risk systems were the result of poor well construction and casing corrosion rather than the land use. We carried out risk management actions, including changes to well designs and well operational practices, design to increase time of residence and setting the production zone below identified low permeable zones to provide additional barriers to contaminants. The highlight of the risk management element is the well integrity testing using down hole geophysical methods and camera views of the casing condition.

  2. Paternal B Vitamin Intake Is a Determinant of Growth, Hepatic Lipid Metabolism and Intestinal Tumor Volume in Female Apc1638N Mouse Offspring.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia A Sabet

    Full Text Available The importance of maternal nutrition to offspring health and risk of disease is well established. Emerging evidence suggests paternal diet may affect offspring health as well.In the current study we sought to determine whether modulating pre-conception paternal B vitamin intake alters intestinal tumor formation in offspring. Additionally, we sought to identify potential mechanisms for the observed weight differential among offspring by profiling hepatic gene expression and lipid content.Male Apc1638N mice (prone to intestinal tumor formation were fed diets containing replete (control, CTRL, mildly deficient (DEF, or supplemental (SUPP quantities of vitamins B2, B6, B12, and folate for 8 weeks before mating with control-fed wild type females. Wild type offspring were euthanized at weaning and hepatic gene expression profiled. Apc1638N offspring were fed a replete diet and euthanized at 28 weeks of age to assess tumor burden.No differences in intestinal tumor incidence or burden were found between male Apc1638N offspring of different paternal diet groups. Although in female Apc1638N offspring there were no differences in tumor incidence or multiplicity, a stepwise increase in tumor volume with increasing paternal B vitamin intake was observed. Interestingly, female offspring of SUPP and DEF fathers had a significantly lower body weight than those of CTRL fed fathers. Moreover, hepatic trigylcerides and cholesterol were elevated 3-fold in adult female offspring of SUPP fathers. Weanling offspring of the same fathers displayed altered expression of several key lipid-metabolism genes. Hundreds of differentially methylated regions were identified in the paternal sperm in response to DEF and SUPP diets. Aside from a few genes including Igf2, there was a striking lack of overlap between these genes differentially methylated in sperm and differentially expressed in offspring.In this animal model, modulation of paternal B vitamin intake prior to mating

  3. Can systematic reviews inform GMO risk assessment and risk management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian eKohl

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a gold standard for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper we 1 consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO and 2 critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  4. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  5. Paternalism, Obesity, and Tolerable Levels of Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merry, Michael S.

    2012-01-01

    Obesity describes an abnormally high fat accumulation that impairs health. It is crudely measured by a body mass index (BMI) of greater than 30 kg/sq meters. Obesity now ranks among the highest of concerns by the World Health Organization (WHO) and not only in countries of affluence; the figures of obesity worldwide have doubled since 1980 and the…

  6. Risk assessment meta tool LDRD final report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bouchard, Ann Marie; Osbourn, Gordon Cecil

    2006-12-01

    The goal of this project was to develop a risk analysis meta tool--a tool that enables security analysts both to combine and analyze data from multiple other risk assessment tools on demand. Our approach was based on the innovative self-assembling software technology under development by the project team. This technology provides a mechanism for the user to specify his intentions at a very high level (e.g., equations or English-like text), and then the code self-assembles itself, taking care of the implementation details. The first version of the meta tool focused specifically in importing and analyzing data from Joint Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS) force-on-force simulation. We discuss the problem, our approach, technical risk, and accomplishments on this project, and outline next steps to be addressed with follow-on funding.

  7. Risk Assessment for Destructive Re-Entry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lips, T.; Koppenwallner, G.; Bianchi, L.; Klinkrad, H.

    2009-03-01

    From 2007 to 2008, Hypersonic Technology Göttingen (HTG) worked on a study called Risk Assessment for Destructive Re-entry (RADR). The main purposes of this study were to identify and to quantify the inherent uncertainties of re-entry analysis tools, and to provide possible risk mitigation measures. For these purposes, three basic risk scenarios were specified: a 1-ton-class satellite without propulsion for uncontrolled re-entry, a 6-ton-class satellite with propulsion and the capability to perform a controlled re-entry, and a 1-ton-class launcher upper stage re-entering uncontrolled. Based on the identified uncertainty parameters, variation analyses were conducted for these scenarios with the two ESA tools for re-entry analysis SCARAB (Spacecraft Atmospheric Reentry and Aerothermal Breakup) and SESAM (Spacecraft Entry Survival Analysis Module). This paper describes the major results of the RADR study.

  8. Degraded Environments Alter Prey Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lönnstedt, Oona M; McCormick, Mark I; Chivers, Douglas P

    2013-01-01

    Elevated water temperatures, a decrease in ocean pH, and an increasing prevalence of severe storms have lead to bleaching and death of the hard corals that underpin coral reef ecosystems. As coral cover declines, fish diversity and abundance declines. How degradation of coral reefs affects behavior of reef inhabitants is unknown. Here, we demonstrate that risk assessment behaviors of prey are severely affected by coral degradation. Juvenile damselfish were exposed to visual and olfactory indicators of predation risk in healthy live, thermally bleached, and dead coral in a series of laboratory and field experiments. While fish still responded to visual cues in all habitats, they did not respond to olfactory indicators of risk in dead coral habitats, likely as a result of alteration or degradation of chemical cues. These cues are critical for learning and avoiding predators, and a failure to respond can have dramatic repercussions for survival and recruitment. PMID:23403754

  9. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  10. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero Rojo, F. J.; Roy, R.; Kelly, S.

    2012-05-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  11. Assessing glacial lake outburst flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kougkoulos, Ioannis; Cook, Simon; Jomelli, Vincent; Clarke, Leon; Symeonakis, Elias

    2017-04-01

    Glaciers across the world are thinning and receding in response to atmospheric warming. Glaciers tend to erode subglacial basins and deposit eroded materials around their margins as lateral-frontal terminal moraines. Recession into these basins and behind impounding moraines causes meltwater to pond as proglacial and supraglacial lakes. Consequently, there has been a general trend of increasing number and size of these lakes associated with glacier melting in many mountainous regions around the globe, in the last 30 years. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) then may occur where the glacial lake dam (ice, rock, moraine, or combination thereof) is breached, or overtopped, and thousands of people have lost their lives to such events in the last few decades, especially in the Andes and in the Himalaya. Given the ongoing and arguably increasing risk posed to downstream communities, and infrastructure, there has been a proliferation of GLOF studies, with many seeking to estimate GLOF hazard or risk in specific regions, or to identify 'potentially dangerous glacial lakes'. Given the increased scientific interest in GLOFs, it is timely to evaluate critically the ways in which GLOF risk has been assessed previously, and whether there are improvements that can be made to the ways in which risk assessment is achieved. We argue that, whilst existing GLOF hazard and risk assessments have been extremely valuable they often suffer from a number of key shortcomings that can be addressed by using different techniques as multi-criteria decision analysis and hydraulic modelling borrowed from disciplines like engineering, remote sensing and operations research.

  12. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    OpenAIRE

    Romero Rojo, Francisco Javier; Roy, Rajkumar; Kelly, S.

    2013-01-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for th...

  13. Gender, risk assessment, and political ambition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet-Cushman, Jennie

    2016-01-01

    In the United States, women have long held the right to vote and can participate fully in the political process, and yet they are underrepresented at all levels of elected office. Worldwide, men's dominance in the realm of politics has also been the norm. To date, scholars have focused on supply-side and demand-side explanations of women's underrepresentation but differences in how men and women assess electoral risk (the risk involved in seeking political office) are not fully explained. To fill this gap, I explore how evolutionary theory offers insights into gendered differences in political ambition and the evaluation of electoral risk. Using the framework of life-history theory, I hypothesize that both cognitive and environmental factors in human evolution, particularly as they relate to sexual selection and social roles, have shaped the psychology of ambition in gendered ways affecting contemporary politics. Cognitive risk-assessment mechanisms evolving in the hominid line came to be expressed differently in females and males, in women and men. These gendered expressions plausibly reflect differentiable environmental pressures in the past and may help explain behaviors in and barriers to women's electoral political activity in the present. If so, then the success of efforts to increase such activity - or, regressively, to suppress it - may be better understood.

  14. Quantum chemistry in environmental pesticide risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villaverde, Juan J; López-Goti, Carmen; Alcamí, Manuel; Lamsabhi, Al Mokhtar; Alonso-Prados, José L; Sandín-España, Pilar

    2017-11-01

    The scientific community and regulatory bodies worldwide, currently promote the development of non-experimental tests that produce reliable data for pesticide risk assessment. The use of standard quantum chemistry methods could allow the development of tools to perform a first screening of compounds to be considered for the experimental studies, improving the risk assessment. This fact results in a better distribution of resources and in better planning, allowing a more exhaustive study of the pesticides and their metabolic products. The current paper explores the potential of quantum chemistry in modelling toxicity and environmental behaviour of pesticides and their by-products by using electronic descriptors obtained computationally. Quantum chemistry has potential to estimate the physico-chemical properties of pesticides, including certain chemical reaction mechanisms and their degradation pathways, allowing modelling of the environmental behaviour of both pesticides and their by-products. In this sense, theoretical methods can contribute to performing a more focused risk assessment of pesticides used in the market, and may lead to higher quality and safer agricultural products. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  15. Weighted normalized risk factor for floods risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashraf Mohamed Elmoustafa

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA describes any structured approach used to determine overall preferences among alternative options, where options accomplish certain or several objectives. The flood protection of properties is a highly important issue due to the damage, danger and other hazards associated to it to human life, properties, and environment. To determine the priority of execution of protection works for any project, many aspects should be considered in order to decide the areas to start the data collection and analysis with. Multi criteria analysis techniques were tested and evaluated for the purpose of flood risk assessment, hydro-morphological parameters were used in this analysis. Finally a suitable technique was chosen and tested to be adopted as a mark of flood risk level and results were presented.

  16. Drugs to awaken a paternal gene

    OpenAIRE

    Beaudet, Arthur L.

    2011-01-01

    Mutations in the maternal copy of the UBE3A gene cause a neurodevelopmental disorder known as Angelman syndrome. Drugs that activate the normally silenced paternal copy of this gene may be of therapeutic value.

  17. Implications of advancing paternal age: does it affect offspring school performance?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna C Svensson

    Full Text Available Average paternal age is increasing in many high income countries, but the implications of this demographic shift for child health and welfare are poorly understood. There is equivocal evidence that children of older fathers are at increased risk of neurodevelopmental disorders and reduced IQ. We therefore report here on the relationship between paternal age and a composite indicator of scholastic achievement during adolescence, i.e. compulsory school leaving grades, among recent birth cohorts in Stockholm County where delayed paternity is notably common. We performed a record-linkage study comprising all individuals in Stockholm County who finished 9 years of compulsory school from 2000 through 2007 (n = 155,875. Data on school leaving grades and parental characteristics were retrieved from administrative and health service registers and analyzed using multiple linear regression. Advancing paternal age at birth was not associated with a decrease in school leaving grades in adolescent offspring. After adjustment for year of graduation, maternal age and parental education, country of birth and parental mental health service use, offspring of fathers aged 50 years or older had on average 0.3 (95% CI -3.8, 4.4 points higher grades than those of fathers aged 30-34 years. In conclusion, advancing paternal age is not associated with poorer school performance in adolescence. Adverse effects of delayed paternity on offspring cognitive function, if any, may be counterbalanced by other potential advantages for children born to older fathers.

  18. Implications of advancing paternal age: does it affect offspring school performance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svensson, Anna C; Abel, Kathryn; Dalman, Christina; Magnusson, Cecilia

    2011-01-01

    Average paternal age is increasing in many high income countries, but the implications of this demographic shift for child health and welfare are poorly understood. There is equivocal evidence that children of older fathers are at increased risk of neurodevelopmental disorders and reduced IQ. We therefore report here on the relationship between paternal age and a composite indicator of scholastic achievement during adolescence, i.e. compulsory school leaving grades, among recent birth cohorts in Stockholm County where delayed paternity is notably common. We performed a record-linkage study comprising all individuals in Stockholm County who finished 9 years of compulsory school from 2000 through 2007 (n = 155,875). Data on school leaving grades and parental characteristics were retrieved from administrative and health service registers and analyzed using multiple linear regression. Advancing paternal age at birth was not associated with a decrease in school leaving grades in adolescent offspring. After adjustment for year of graduation, maternal age and parental education, country of birth and parental mental health service use, offspring of fathers aged 50 years or older had on average 0.3 (95% CI -3.8, 4.4) points higher grades than those of fathers aged 30-34 years. In conclusion, advancing paternal age is not associated with poorer school performance in adolescence. Adverse effects of delayed paternity on offspring cognitive function, if any, may be counterbalanced by other potential advantages for children born to older fathers.

  19. Chinese Preschool Children’s Socioemotional Development: The Effects of Maternal and Paternal Psychological Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shufen Xing

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The present study examined the relative prediction and joint effects of maternal and paternal psychological control on children’s socioemotional development. A total of 325 preschool children between the ages of 34 and 57 months (M = 4 years 2 months and their parents participated in the study. Fathers and mothers, respectively, reported their levels of psychological control and mothers evaluated the socioemotional development of children using two indicators (i.e., behavioral problems and prosocial behaviors. The results indicated that the relative predictive effects of maternal and paternal psychological control on children’s socioemotional development differed. Specifically, maternal psychological control was a significant predictor of children’s behavioral problems and prosocial behaviors, whereas the levels of paternal psychological control were unrelated to children’s socioemotional development. With regard to the combined effects of maternal and paternal psychological control, the results of ANOVAs and simple slope analysis both indicated that children would be at risk of behavioral problems as long as they had one highly psychologically controlling parent. High levels of paternal psychological control were associated with increased behavioral problems of children only when maternal psychological control was low. However, the association between maternal psychological control and children’s behavioral behaviors was significant, despite paternal psychological control.

  20. Chinese Preschool Children’s Socioemotional Development: The Effects of Maternal and Paternal Psychological Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Shufen; Gao, Xin; Song, Xinxin; Archer, Marc; Zhao, Demao; Zhang, Mengting; Ding, Bilei; Liu, Xia

    2017-01-01

    The present study examined the relative prediction and joint effects of maternal and paternal psychological control on children’s socioemotional development. A total of 325 preschool children between the ages of 34 and 57 months (M = 4 years 2 months) and their parents participated in the study. Fathers and mothers, respectively, reported their levels of psychological control and mothers evaluated the socioemotional development of children using two indicators (i.e., behavioral problems and prosocial behaviors). The results indicated that the relative predictive effects of maternal and paternal psychological control on children’s socioemotional development differed. Specifically, maternal psychological control was a significant predictor of children’s behavioral problems and prosocial behaviors, whereas the levels of paternal psychological control were unrelated to children’s socioemotional development. With regard to the combined effects of maternal and paternal psychological control, the results of ANOVAs and simple slope analysis both indicated that children would be at risk of behavioral problems as long as they had one highly psychologically controlling parent. High levels of paternal psychological control were associated with increased behavioral problems of children only when maternal psychological control was low. However, the association between maternal psychological control and children’s behavioral behaviors was significant, despite paternal psychological control. PMID:29093691

  1. Cardiovascular risk assessment in Italy: the CUORE Project risk score and risk chart

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Giampaoli

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available

    Aim: Risk charts and risk score, based on the global absolute risk, are key tools for CVD risk assessment. When applied to the population from which they derive, they provide the best estimate of CVD risk. That is why the CUORE Project has among its objectives the assessment of the Italian population’s cardiovascular risk, identifying the model for the prediction of coronary and cerebrovascular events in 10 years.

    Methods: Data fromdifferent cohorts enrolled in the North, Centre and South of Italy between the 1980s and the 1990s were used. From the 7,056 men and 12,574 women aged 35-69 years, free of cardiovascular disease at base-line and followed up for a mean time of 10 years for total and cause-specific mortality and non fatal cerebrovascular and coronary events, 894 major cardiovascular events (596 coronary and 298 cerebrovascular were identified and validated. To assess 10-year cardiovascular risk, the risk score and risk chart were developed for men and women separately, considering the first major coronary or cerebrovascular event as the endpoint.

    Results: The risk score is applied tomen andwomen aged 35-69 years and includes age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, smoking habit, diabetes and hypertension treatment using continuous values when possible. The risk chart is applied to persons aged 40-69 years and includes the same risk factors as risk score, except for HDL-cholesterol and hypertension treatment, and uses categorical values for all variables.

    Conclusions: The risk score and risk chart are easy-to-use tools which enable general practitioners and specialists to achieve an objective evaluation of the absolute global cardiovascular risk of middle-aged persons in primary prevention.

  2. Paternal Age Alters Social Development in Offspring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janecka, Magdalena; Haworth, Claire M A; Ronald, Angelica; Krapohl, Eva; Happé, Francesca; Mill, Jonathan; Schalkwyk, Leonard C; Fernandes, Cathy; Reichenberg, Abraham; Rijsdijk, Frühling

    2017-05-01

    Advanced paternal age (APA) at conception has been linked with autism and schizophrenia in offspring, neurodevelopmental disorders that affect social functioning. The current study explored the effects of paternal age on social development in the general population. We used multilevel growth modeling to investigate APA effects on socioemotional development from early childhood until adolescence, as measured by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) in the Twins Early Development Study (TEDS) sample. We also investigated genetic and environmental underpinnings of the paternal age effects on development, using the Additive genetics, Common environment, unique Environment (ACE) and gene-environment (GxE) models. In the general population, both very young and advanced paternal ages were associated with altered trajectory of social development (intercept: p = .01; slope: p = .03). No other behavioral domain was affected by either young or advanced age at fatherhood, suggesting specificity of paternal age effects. Increased importance of genetic factors in social development was recorded in the offspring of older but not very young fathers, suggesting distinct underpinnings of the paternal age effects at these two extremes. Our findings highlight that the APA-related deficits that lead to autism and schizophrenia are likely continuously distributed in the population. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Multiple paternity in reptiles: patterns and processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uller, Tobias; Olsson, Mats

    2008-06-01

    The evolution of female promiscuity poses an intriguing problem as benefits of mating with multiple males often have to arise via indirect, genetic, effects. Studies on birds have documented that multiple paternity is common in natural populations but strong evidence for selection via female benefits is lacking. In an attempt to evaluate the evidence more broadly, we review studies of multiple paternity in natural populations of all major groups of nonavian reptiles. Multiple paternity has been documented in all species investigated so far and commonly exists in over 50% of clutches, with particularly high levels in snakes and lizards. Marine turtles and lizards with prolonged pair-bonding have relatively low levels of multiple paternity but levels are nevertheless higher than in many vertebrates with parental care. There is no evidence that high levels of polyandry are driven by direct benefits to females and the evidence that multiple paternity arises from indirect genetic benefits is weak. Instead, we argue that the most parsimonious explanation for patterns of multiple paternity is that it represents the combined effect of mate-encounter frequency and conflict over mating rates between males and females driven by large male benefits and relatively small female costs, with only weak selection via indirect benefits. A crucial step for researchers is to move from correlative approaches to experimental tests of assumptions and predictions of theory under natural settings, using a combination of molecular techniques and behavioural observations.

  4. Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

  5. 77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-03

    ... Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals Related to Knowledge.'' The... an issue paper entitled ``Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science...' knowledge about drugs' risks; (2) share current FDA experience regarding social science assessments of...

  6. Water risk assessment for river basins in China based on WWF water risk assessment tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Wei

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Water resource problems, one of the most important environmental and socio-economic issues, have been a common concern worldwide in recent years. Water resource risks are attracting more and more attention from the international community and national governments. Given the current situations of water resources and the water environment, and the characteristics of water resources management and information statistics of China, this paper establishes an index system for water risk assessment in river basins of China based on the index system of water risk assessment proposed by the World Wide Fund For Nature (WWF and German Investment and Development Co., Ltd (DEG. The new system is more suitable for Chinese national conditions and endorses the international assessment index. A variety of factors are considered to determine the critical values of classification for each index, and the indexes are graded by means of 5-grade and 5-score scales; the weights and calculation methods of some indexes are adjusted, with the remaining indexes adopting the method of WWF. The Weighted Comprehensive Index Summation Process is adopted to calculate the integrated assessment score of the river basin. The method is applied to the Haihe River basin in China. The assessment shows that the method can accurately reflect the water risk level of different river basins. Finally, the paper discusses the continuing problems in water risk assessment and points out the research required to provide a reference for further study in this field.

  7. Spent Nuclear Fuel Alternative Technology Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perella, V.F.

    1999-11-29

    A Research Reactor Spent Nuclear Fuel Task Team (RRTT) was chartered by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Spent Fuel Management with the responsibility to recommend a course of action leading to a final technology selection for the interim management and ultimate disposition of the foreign and domestic aluminum-based research reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF) under DOE''s jurisdiction. The RRTT evaluated eleven potential SNF management technologies and recommended that two technologies, direct co-disposal and an isotopic dilution alternative, either press and dilute or melt and dilute, be developed in parallel. Based upon that recommendation, the Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) organized the SNF Alternative Technology Program to further develop the direct co-disposal and melt and dilute technologies and provide a WSRC recommendation to DOE for a preferred SNF alternative management technology. A technology risk assessment was conducted as a first step in this recommendation process to determine if either, or both, of the technologies posed significant risks that would make them unsuitable for further development. This report provides the results of that technology risk assessment.

  8. Risk-Based Assessment of Structural Robustness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oana-Mihaela Ioniţă

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Providing safety of structures is one of the main aims of design. In traditional design it is achieved by designing structural components against specified limit states. However, as showed the Ronan Point collapse in UK in 1968, when a gas explosion in one of flats on the 18-th floor of the residential building caused the failure of an entire section of the building, this approach is not sufficient. The approach does not exclude the risk of local damage to a structure due to accidental events that can occur during service life of the structure. While probability of occurrence of such events for ordinary structures is low, and, therefore, they are not considered explicitly in design, their effect on structural safety becomes significant if the structure is not robust, that is when some local damage can trigger a chain reaction of failures causing collapse of the whole structure or of a major part of it, the so called progressive collapse. The purpose of this paper is to outline the basic premises for the utilization of risk assessment in evaluating the robustness of structures. In the following the robustness assessment is understood as a process of decision making based on risks.

  9. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  10. Information Security Risk Assessment in Hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayatollahi, Haleh; Shagerdi, Ghazal

    2017-01-01

    To date, many efforts have been made to classify information security threats, especially in the healthcare area. However, there are still many unknown risks which may threat the security of health information and their resources especially in the hospitals. The aim of this study was to assess the risks threatening information security in the hospitals located in one of the northwest cities of Iran. This study was completed in 2014. The participants were information technology managers who worked in the hospitals (n=27). The research instrument was a questionnaire composed of a number of open and closed questions. The content validity of the questionnaire was confirmed, and the reliability of the closed questions was measured by using the test-retest method (r =0.78). The results showed that among the information security risks, fire found to be a high probability/high impact risk factor. Human and physical/environmental threats were among the low probability risk factors. Regarding the information security safeguards used in the hospitals, the results showed that the use of the technical safeguards was the most frequent one (n =22, 91.7%) compared to the administrative (n =21, 87.5%) and the physical safeguards (n =16, 66.7%). The high probability risk factors require quick corrective actions to be taken. Therefore, the underlying causes of such threats should be identified and controlled before experiencing adverse effects. It is also important to note that information security in health care systems needs to be considered at a macro level with respect to the national interests and policies.

  11. Risk assessment methodology for the forniture industrial sector

    OpenAIRE

    Rodrigues, Matilde A.

    2014-01-01

    Companies need to constantly make decisions about risk. They need to decide if a certain risk level is low enough or if some measures for its reduction are still needed. In this regard, risk assessment appears as a basis for the decision-making about risks. However, risk acceptance is an important issue related to the risk assessment process, which may put into question its appropriateness. Despite the importance of risk acceptance, this subject is insufficiently discussed in the literature r...

  12. Excipient Usage Technical Risk Assessment for Generic Solid Dose Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajay Babu Pazhayattil

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an assessment methodology for solid dose generic small molecule drug products. It addresses the ‘usage of the excipient’ portion of the trinomial by utilizing the systematic approach of Risk Identification, Risk Analysis and Risk Evaluation as per ICH Q9 Quality Risk Management outlined for developing risk control strategies. The assessment and maintenance of excipient risk profile is essential to minimize any potential risk associated to excipients impacting patients.

  13. Decisions about parental care in response to perceived paternity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neff, Bryan D

    2003-04-17

    Evolutionary ecologists are attempting to explain how parents make behavioural decisions about how much care to provide to their young. Theory predicts that when genetic relatedness to young is decreased by cuckoldry, for example, parents should reduce their care in favour of alternative broods that provide greater reproductive success. Experimental manipulation of perceived paternity has been used to test the theory, but such studies have generated mixed results. Some manipulations can fail to alter a parent's perceived paternity, whereas others may directly affect parental behaviour when, for instance, the manipulation involves capturing the parent. No study has demonstrated parental care adjustment in a manner uncomplicated by experimental design or life history correlates. Here I test the theory using the fact that nest-tending parental male bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus) can assess their paternity using both the visual presence of parasitic cuckolder males during spawning, and olfactory cues released by newly hatched eggs. By manipulating both types of cues I show that parental males dynamically adjust their parental care, favouring broods that are apparently most closely related. These results confirm the importance of genetic relatedness in parental care decision-making.

  14. Risk Assessment in Advanced Engineering Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Holický

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Traditional methods for designing of civil engineering structures and other engineering systems are frequently based on the concept of target probability of failure. However, this fundamental quantity is usually specified on the basis of comparative studies and past experience only. Moreover, probabilistic design methods suffer from several deficiencies, including lack of consideration for accidental and other hazard situations and their consequences. Both of these extreme conditions are more and more frequently becoming causes of serious failures and other adverse events. Available experience clearly indicates that probabilistic design procedures may be efficiently supplemented by a risk analysis and assessment, which can take into account various consequences of unfavourable events. It is therefore anticipated that in addition to traditional probabilistic concepts the methods of advanced engineering design will also commonly include criteria for acceptable risks.

  15. Does paternal mental health in pregnancy predict physically aggressive behavior in children?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kvalevaag, Anne Lise; Ramchandani, Paul G; Hove, Oddbjørn; Eberhard-Gran, Malin; Assmus, Jörg; Assmus, Jurg; Havik, Odd E; Haavik, Odd E; Sivertsen, Børge; Biringer, Eva

    2014-10-01

    The aim was to study the association between paternal mental health and physically aggressive behavior in children. This study is based on 19,580 father-child dyads from the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study (MoBa). Fathers' mental health was assessed by self-report (Symptom Checklist-5, SCL-5) in week 17 or 18 of gestation. Children's behavior (hitting others) was obtained by mothers' reports. A multinomial logistic regression model was performed. Expectant fathers' high level of psychological distress was found to be a significant risk factor only for girls hitting, adjusted OR = 1.46 (1.01-2.12), p = 0.043, but not for boys. High levels of mental distress in fathers predict their daughters' hitting at 5 years of age.

  16. Risk Assessment Report, Davis Global Communications Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-02-23

    methiocarb . All of the contaminants detected in the production well were evaluated as COPCs in the risk assessment, with the exception of methiocarb ... Methiocarb (Mesurol, produced by Mobay Contaminant Corp.) is a moderately toxic carbamate pesticide used principally as a bird repellant in fruit and...6.7 1,4-Dichlorobenzene 2 2.95 3.71 3 1,1-Dichloroethene 27 0.2 3.0 Ethylene dibromide 2 1.407 2.3 3 Freon 113 45 1.3 14.1 Methiocarb 1 -- 50.0 3 Methyl

  17. Risk Assessment tailored to cryogenics - LINDE approach

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    The following Risk Assessment Tools will be presented: **HAZID – Hazard Identification Study** Application: if the process contains new applications or provides new challenges (e.g. plant location) Purpose: Identify hazards such as fire/explosion, toxic impact, occupational hazards etc. and assess adequate preventive / mitigation measures **HAZOP – Hazard and Operability Study** Application: for all Projects Purpose: Detailed review of design reflected in the PID to ensure that adequate safeguards are available for all possible process upsets or maloperations. **HAZAN – Hazard Analysis** Application: for all PFHE (plate-fin heat exchangers), CWHE (coil wound heat exchangers) and straight tube sheet heat exchangers Purpose: detailed analysis of the impact of process upset conditions and start-up / shut down scenarios on the lifetime of the heat exchangers – including definition of additional safeguards, if required. **TQR – Technology Qualification Review** Application: for applications...

  18. The effect of paternal age on offspring intelligence and personality when controlling for paternal trait level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arslan, Ruben C; Penke, Lars; Johnson, Wendy; Iacono, William G; McGue, Matt

    2014-01-01

    Paternal age at conception has been found to predict the number of new genetic mutations. We examined the effect of father's age at birth on offspring intelligence, head circumference and personality traits. Using the Minnesota Twin Family Study sample we tested paternal age effects while controlling for parents' trait levels measured with the same precision as offspring's. From evolutionary genetic considerations we predicted a negative effect of paternal age on offspring intelligence, but not on other traits. Controlling for parental intelligence (IQ) had the effect of turning an initially positive association non-significantly negative. We found paternal age effects on offspring IQ and Multidimensional Personality Questionnaire Absorption, but they were not robustly significant, nor replicable with additional covariates. No other noteworthy effects were found. Parents' intelligence and personality correlated with their ages at twin birth, which may have obscured a small negative effect of advanced paternal age (birth order and the Flynn effect.

  19. Scientific risk assessment and the regulation of human cancer risks: background and new directions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barnard, R.C.

    1987-09-01

    I consider the importance of scientific risk assessment as optimal basis for socially sound risk management decisions. The health professional has both risk assessment and risk management responsibilities; the functions are conceptually separate and governed by separate criteria: scientific for risk assessment and social for risk management. The history of the development of regulating risk assessment methodology with particular reference to potential carcinogens is discussed. The scientific basis for possible improvements in risk assessment methodology for potential carcinogens is identified and the significance of the potential improvements is considered with special reference to the health professional.

  20. Toxicologic Pathology: The Basic Building Block of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Human health risk assessment is a critical factor in many risk management decisions. Evaluation of human health risk requires research the provides information that appropriately characterizes potential hazards from exposure. Pathology endpoints are the central response around ...

  1. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  2. Effects of paternal and maternal lifestyle factors on pregnancy complications and perinatal outcome. A population-based birth-cohort study : the GECKO Drenthe cohort

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mutsaerts, M. A. Q.; Groen, H.; Buiter-Van der Meer, A.; Sijtsma, A.; Sauer, P. J. J.; Land, J. A.; Mol, B. W.; Corpeleijn, E.; Hoek, A.

    Do paternal and maternal lifestyle factors influence the risk of hypertensive pregnancy complications, gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), spontaneous preterm birth and small-for-gestational-age (SGA)? Paternal lifestyle factors do not exert an independent effect on the investigated outcomes while

  3. Paternal B vitamin intake is a determinant of growth, hepatic lipid metabolism and intestinal tumor volume in female Apc1638N mouse offspring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background: The importance of maternal nutrition to offspring health and risk of disease is well established. Emerging evidence suggests paternal diet may affect offspring health as well. Objective: In the current study we sought to determine whether modulating pre-conception paternal B vitamin inta...

  4. Assessing risk factors for periodontitis using regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobo Pereira, J. A.; Ferreira, Maria Cristina; Oliveira, Teresa

    2013-10-01

    Multivariate statistical analysis is indispensable to assess the associations and interactions between different factors and the risk of periodontitis. Among others, regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in healthcare to investigate and model the relationship between variables. In our work we study the impact of socio-demographic, medical and behavioral factors on periodontal health. Using regression, linear and logistic models, we can assess the relevance, as risk factors for periodontitis disease, of the following independent variables (IVs): Age, Gender, Diabetic Status, Education, Smoking status and Plaque Index. The multiple linear regression analysis model was built to evaluate the influence of IVs on mean Attachment Loss (AL). Thus, the regression coefficients along with respective p-values will be obtained as well as the respective p-values from the significance tests. The classification of a case (individual) adopted in the logistic model was the extent of the destruction of periodontal tissues defined by an Attachment Loss greater than or equal to 4 mm in 25% (AL≥4mm/≥25%) of sites surveyed. The association measures include the Odds Ratios together with the correspondent 95% confidence intervals.

  5. Risk assessment of power systems models, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Wenyuan

    2014-01-01

    Risk Assessment of Power Systems addresses the regulations and functions of risk assessment with regard to its relevance in system planning, maintenance, and asset management. Brimming with practical examples, this edition introduces the latest risk information on renewable resources, the smart grid, voltage stability assessment, and fuzzy risk evaluation. It is a comprehensive reference of a highly pertinent topic for engineers, managers, and upper-level students who seek examples of risk theory applications in the workplace.

  6. Radiological endpoints relevant to ecological risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harrison, F. [Univ. of California, Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Livermore, CA (United States)

    1997-07-01

    Because of the potential risk from radiation due to the releases of radionuclides from anthropogenic activities, considerable research was performed to determine for humans the levels of dose received, their responses to the doses and mechanisms of action of radioactivity on living matter. More recently, there is an increased interest in the effects of radioactivity on non-human species. There are differences in approach between risk assessment for humans and ecosystems. For protection of humans, the focus is the individual and the endpoint of primary concern is cancer induction. For protection of ecosystems, the focus is on population stability and the endpoint of concern is reproductive success for organisms important ecologically and economically. For these organisms, information is needed on their responses to irradiation and the potential impact of the doses absorbed on their reproductive success. Considerable information is available on the effects of radiation on organisms from different phyla and types of ecosystems. Databases useful for assessing risk from exposures of populations to radioactivity are the effects of irradiation on mortality, fertility and sterility, the latter two of which are important components of reproductive success. Data on radiation effects on mortality are available both from acute and chronic irradiation. In relation to radiation effects, reproductive success for a given population is related to a number of characteristics of the species, including inherent radiosensitivity of reproductive tissues and early life stages, processes occurring during gametogenesis, reproductive strategy and exposure history. The available data on acute and chronic radiation doses is reviewed for invertebrates, fishes and mammals. The information reviewed indicates that wide ranges in responses with species can be expected. Parameters that most likely contribute to inherent radiosensitivity are discussed. (author)

  7. The effects of paternal disengagement on women's sexual decision making: an experimental approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delpriore, Danielle J; Hill, Sarah E

    2013-08-01

    An abundance of research demonstrates a robust association between father absence--or low-quality paternal involvement--and daughters' accelerated sexual development, promiscuity, and sexual risk taking. Although recent natural experiments provide support for fathers playing a causal role in these outcomes, these effects have not been examined using a randomized experimental design to eliminate genetic and environmental confounds inherent in previous studies. We redressed this empirical gap by experimentally testing the effects of primed paternal disengagement cues on women's sexual decision making. Across 5 experiments, reminders of paternal disengagement increased women's activation of sexual thoughts (Experiment 1), sexual permissiveness (Experiments 2-4), and negativity toward condom use (Experiment 5). Moreover, these effects were specific to women's sexual decision making, as paternal disengagement cues failed to influence women's willingness to take nonsexual risks (Experiment 4) or men's risky sexual attitudes (Experiment 5). These results provide the first true experimental evidence supporting a causal relationship between paternal disengagement and changes in women's psychology that promote risky sexual behavior.

  8. Assessing Food Safety Risk in Global Supply Chain

    OpenAIRE

    Shirani, Mohsen

    2016-01-01

    Despite many attempts in the food safety risk assessment, there are a few studies and methods to cover the entire food supply chain. This study introduce a new model to perform the food risk assessment considering human factor along the entire food supply chain. The multi-discipline methodology of risk assessment tool, in combination of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) has been applied in order to assess high safety risk point along the entire supply chain of food products. The method has be...

  9. Preventive risk assessment in forensic child and youth care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Assink, M.

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessment is central to the work of forensic mental health professionals, since it serves as a guide for prevention and intervention strategies. For effective risk assessment, knowledge on risk factors and their effects as well as the availability of valid and reliable instruments for risk

  10. 75 FR 70009 - Development of Health Risk Assessment Guidance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-16

    ... HUMAN SERVICES Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Development of Health Risk Assessment Guidance... guidance concerning Health Risk Assessment (HRAs). Section 4103 of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) (Pub. L. 111-148) requires that a health risk assessment be included in the annual wellness visit benefit...

  11. Laboratory Biosafety and Biosecurity Risk Assessment Technical Guidance Document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Astuto-Gribble, Lisa M; Caskey, Susan Adele

    2014-07-01

    The purpose of this document is threefold: 1) to describe the laboratory bio safety and biosecurity risk assessment process and its conceptual framework; 2) provide detailed guidance and suggested methodologies on how to conduct a risk assessment; and 3) present some practical risk assessment process strategies using realistic laboratory scenarios.

  12. 78 FR 23901 - Interagency Risk Assessment-Listeria monocytogenes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-23

    ... Food Safety and Inspection Service Interagency Risk Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in Retail... risk assessment (QRA), ``Interagency Risk Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens... and on the FSIS Web site at http://www.fsis.usda.gov/PDF/Listeria-Transcript_062309.pdf ). II. Purpose...

  13. Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bailey, A.; Hutter, I.

    2006-01-01

    Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from

  14. Clinical Perspective Youth violence risk assessment: gaps in local ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There is a lack of research on violence risk assessment in South Africa, particularly on the assessment of risk for violence in children and adolescents. ... to assess youth violence risk exist, many primarily focus on identifying psychopathic tendencies in young people, which has stimulated much debate amongst scholars.

  15. Assessment of cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients: a comparison of commonly used risk scoring programs

    OpenAIRE

    Ulusoy, Şükrü

    2013-01-01

    Several calculation modalities are used today for cardiovascular risk assessment. Cardiovascular risk assessment should be performed in all hypertensive patients. Risk assessment methods being based on the population in which the patient lives and the inclusion of factors such as ethnicity variations, socioeconomic status, and medication use will contribute to improvements in risk assessments. The results should be shared with the patient, and modifiable risk factors must be effectively treated.

  16. A classification scheme for risk assessment methods.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stamp, Jason Edwin; Campbell, Philip LaRoche

    2004-08-01

    This report presents a classification scheme for risk assessment methods. This scheme, like all classification schemes, provides meaning by imposing a structure that identifies relationships. Our scheme is based on two orthogonal aspects--level of detail, and approach. The resulting structure is shown in Table 1 and is explained in the body of the report. Each cell in the Table represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. This report imposes structure on the set of risk assessment methods in order to reveal their relationships and thus optimize their usage.We present a two-dimensional structure in the form of a matrix, using three abstraction levels for the rows and three approaches for the columns. For each of the nine cells in the matrix we identify the method type by name and example. The matrix helps the user understand: (1) what to expect from a given method, (2) how it relates to other methods, and (3) how best to use it. Each cell in the matrix represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. The matrix, with type names in the cells, is introduced in Table 2 on page 13 below. Unless otherwise stated we use the word 'method' in this report to refer to a 'risk assessment method', though often times we use the full phrase. The use of the terms 'risk assessment' and 'risk management' are close enough that we do not attempt to distinguish them in this report. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In

  17. Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe

    2014-12-01

    Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants.

  18. Assessing the Invasion Risk of Eucalyptus in the United States Using the Australian Weed Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doria R. Gordon

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Many agricultural species have undergone selection for traits that are consistent with those that increase the probability that a species will become invasive. However, the risk of invasion may be accurately predicted for the majority of plant species tested using the Australian Weed Risk Assessment (WRA. This system has been tested in multiple climates and geographies and, on average, correctly identifies 90% of the major plant invaders as having high invasion risk, and 70% of the noninvaders as having low risk. We used this tool to evaluate the invasion risk of 38 Eucalyptus taxa currently being tested and cultivated in the USA for pulp, biofuel, and other purposes. We predict 15 taxa to have low risk of invasion, 14 taxa to have high risk, and 9 taxa to require further information. In addition to a history of naturalization and invasiveness elsewhere, the traits that significantly contribute to a high invasion risk conclusion include having prolific seed production and a short generation time. Selection against these traits should reduce the probability that eucalypts cultivated in the USA will become invasive threats to natural areas and agricultural systems.

  19. Sperm competition games when males invest in paternal care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Requena, Gustavo S; Alonzo, Suzanne H

    2017-08-16

    Sperm competition games investigate how males partition limited resources between pre- and post-copulatory competition. Although extensive research has explored how various aspects of mating systems affect this allocation, male allocation between mating, fertilization and parental effort has not previously been considered. Yet, paternal care can be energetically expensive and males are generally predicted to adjust their parental effort in response to expected paternity. Here, we incorporate parental effort into sperm competition games, particularly exploring how the relationship between paternal care and offspring survival affects sperm competition and the relationship between paternity and paternal care. Our results support existing expectations that (i) fertilization effort should increase with female promiscuity and (ii) paternal care should increase with expected paternity. However, our analyses also reveal that the cost of male care can drive the strength of these patterns. When paternal behaviour is energetically costly, increased allocation to parental effort constrains allocation to fertilization effort. As paternal care becomes less costly, the association between paternity and paternal care weakens and may even be absent. By explicitly considering variation in sperm competition and the cost of male care, our model provides an integrative framework for predicting the interaction between paternal care and patterns of paternity. © 2017 The Author(s).

  20. Medical paternalism in House M.D.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wicclair, M R

    2008-12-01

    The popular television series House M.D. is drawn upon to provide a critical examination of medical paternalism and how it is presented in the show. Dr Gregory House, the character named in the title of the series, is a paradigm of a paternalistic physician. He believes that he knows what is best for his patients, and he repeatedly disregards their wishes in order to diagnose and treat their illnesses. This paper examines several examples of medical paternalism and the means used to portray it favourably in the series. It is argued that the positive depiction of medical paternalism in the fictional world of the series does not apply in the real world. The paper also considers why a show that features a paternalistic physician who so blatantly flouts mainstream medical ethics might appeal to health professionals and members of the general public.

  1. Effects of a Paternal Participation Program during Cesarean Section on Paternal Infant Attachment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun Kyoung Kim

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available PurposeIn this study effects of a paternal participation program during cesarean section on paternal infant attachment were investigate. The experimental treatment was an integrative nursing intervention to promote father to infant attachment.MethodsStudy design was a non-equivalent control group posttest design. The program consisted of emotional support to spouse and father towards infant attachment immediately following cesarean birth. Participants were 66 men, partners of women with normal full term pregnancy having a cesarean section with spinal or epidural anesthesia, (experimental group, 34; control group, 32. The experiment was carried out from August 1 to October 30, 2010. Control group data were obtained from May 1 to June 30, 2012. Posttest was performed 72 hours after cesarean birth. A self-report questionnaire including a paternal attachment instrument was used. Data were analyzed using t-test, propensity score matching, and analysis of covariance with the SPSS/WIN 18.0 program.ResultsTotal score for paternal infant attachment in the experimental group was significantly higher than the control group (p<.001. After matching, significant differences were found between the two groups through all subcategories. Adjusted mean score for paternal infant attachment verified experimental effects.ConclusionResults indicate that this paternal participation program during cesarean section is effective in improving paternal infant attachment.

  2. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan; Yasir, Muhammad Samudi [Nuclear Science Programme, School of Applied Physics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor Darul Ehsan (Malaysia)

    2013-11-27

    Measurements of radon gas ({sup 222}Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the {sup 226}Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m{sup −3} to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m{sup −3} to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m{sup −3}, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m{sup −3} to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m{sup −3}, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m{sup −3} to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m{sup −3} and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m{sup −3} to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m{sup −3}, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m{sup −3} and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the

  3. Session: Pre-development project risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curry, Richard; Linehan, Andy

    2004-09-01

    This second session at the Wind Energy and Birds/Bats workshop consisted of two presentations followed by a discussion/question and answer period. The focus of the presentations was on the practices and methodologies used in the wind energy industry for assessing risk to birds and bats at candidate project sites. Presenters offered examples of pre-development siting evaluation requirements set by certain states. Presentation one was titled ''Practices and Methodologies and Initial Screening Tools'' by Richard Curry of Curry and Kerlinger, LLC. Presentation two was titled ''State of the Industry in the Pacific Northwest'' by Andy Linehan, CH2MHILL.

  4. Performing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Through RAVEN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; J. Cogliati; R. Kinoshita

    2013-06-01

    The Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENviroment (RAVEN) code is a software tool that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing engine for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. RAVEN is now a multi-purpose Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) software framework that allows dispatching different functionalities: Derive and actuate the control logic required to simulate the plant control system and operator actions (guided procedures), allowing on-line monitoring/controlling in the Phase Space Perform both Monte-Carlo sampling of random distributed events and Dynamic Event Tree based analysis Facilitate the input/output handling through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a post-processing data mining module

  5. Risk assessment of tuberculosis in immunocompromised patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sester, Martina; van Leth, Frank; Bruchfeld, Judith

    2014-01-01

    RATIONALE: In the absence of active tuberculosis, a positive tuberculin skin test (TST) or interferon-γ release assay (IGRA) result defines latent infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, although test results may vary depending on immunodeficiency. OBJECTIVES: This study compared the performance...... of TST and IGRAs in five different groups of immunocompromised patients, and evaluated their ability to identify those at risk for development of tuberculosis. METHODS: Immunocompromised patients with HIV infection, chronic renal failure, rheumatoid arthritis, solid-organ or stem-cell transplantation......, and healthy control subjects were evaluated head-to-head by the TST, QuantiFERON-TB-Gold in-tube test (ELISA), and T-SPOT.TB test (enzyme-linked immunospot) at 17 centers in 11 European countries. Development of tuberculosis was assessed during follow-up. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Frequencies of positive...

  6. Risk assessment of topically applied products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søborg, Tue; Basse, Line Hollesen; Halling-Sørensen, Bent

    2007-01-01

    The human risk of harmful substances in semisolid topical dosage forms applied topically to normal skin and broken skin, respectively, was assessed. Bisphenol A diglycidyl ether (BADGE) and three derivatives of BADGE previously quantified in aqueous cream and the UV filters 3-BC and 4-MBC were used...... as model compounds. Tolerable daily intake (TDI) values have been established for BADGE and derivatives. Endocrine disruption was chosen as endpoint for 3-BC and 4-MBC. Skin permeation of the model compounds was investigated in vitro using pig skin membranes. Tape stripping was applied to simulate broken...... skin associated with various skin disorders. BADGE and derivatives had a tendency to permeate pig skin membranes in vitro with higher fluxes in the tape stripped membranes compared to the non-treated membranes. Data from the in vitro skin permeation study and from the literature were used as input...

  7. Comparative Assessment Of Natural Gas Accident Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burgherr, P.; Hirschberg, S

    2005-01-01

    The study utilizes a hierarchical approach including (1) comparative analyses of different energy chains, (2) specific evaluations for the natural gas chain, and (3) a detailed overview of the German situation, based on an extensive data set provided by Deutsche Vereinigung des Gas- und Wasserfaches (DVGW). According to SVGW-expertise DVGW-data can be regarded as fully representative for Swiss conditions due to very similar technologies, management, regulations and safety culture, but has a substantially stronger statistical basis because the German gas grid is about 30 times larger compared to Switzerland. Specifically, the following tasks were carried out by PSI to accomplish the objectives of this project: (1) Consolidation of existing ENSAD data, (2) identification and evaluation of additional sources, (3) comparative assessment of accident risks, and (4) detailed evaluations of specific issues and technical aspects for severe and smaller accidents in the natural gas chain that are relevant under Swiss conditions. (author)

  8. Miniature Biosensor with Health Risk Assessment Feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Andrea; Downs, Meghan; Kalogera, Kent; Buxton, Roxanne; Cooper, Tommy; Cooper, Alan; Cooper, Ross

    2016-01-01

    Heart rate (HR) monitoring is a medical requirement during exercise on the International Space Station (ISS), fitness tests, and extravehicular activity (EVA); however, NASA does not currently have the technology to consistently and accurately monitor HR and other physiological data during these activities. Performance of currently available HR monitor technologies is dependent on uninterrupted contact with the torso and are prone to data drop-out and motion artifact. Here, we seek an alternative to the chest strap and electrode based sensors currently in use on ISS today. This project aims to develop a high performance, robust earbud based biosensor with focused efforts on improved HR data quality during exercise or EVA. A health risk assessment algorithm will further advance the goals of autonomous crew health care for exploration missions.

  9. Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

    2013-01-01

    A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

  10. Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remington, Benjamin C.

    2017-09-01

    Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

  11. The Definition of Nudge and Libertarian Paternalism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Pelle Guldborg

    2016-01-01

    approach to behaviour change relates to libertarian paternalism. This paper sets out to improve the clarity and value of the definition of nudge by reconciling it with its theoretical foundations in behavioural economics. In doing so it not only explicates the relationship between nudges and libertarian...... paternalism, but also clarifies how nudges relate to incentives and information, and may even be consistent with the removal of certain types of choices. In the end we are left with a revised definition of the concept of nudge that allows for consistently categorising behaviour change interventions...

  12. A Hierarchal Risk Assessment Model Using the Evidential Reasoning Rule

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoxiao Ji

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to develop a hierarchical risk assessment model using the newly-developed evidential reasoning (ER rule, which constitutes a generic conjunctive probabilistic reasoning process. In this paper, we first provide a brief introduction to the basics of the ER rule and emphasize the strengths for representing and aggregating uncertain information from multiple experts and sources. Further, we discuss the key steps of developing the hierarchical risk assessment framework systematically, including (1 formulation of risk assessment hierarchy; (2 representation of both qualitative and quantitative information; (3 elicitation of attribute weights and information reliabilities; (4 aggregation of assessment information using the ER rule and (5 quantification and ranking of risks using utility-based transformation. The proposed hierarchical risk assessment framework can potentially be implemented to various complex and uncertain systems. A case study on the fire/explosion risk assessment of marine vessels demonstrates the applicability of the proposed risk assessment model.

  13. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available This report is submitted as a deliverable of the SRP project Global Change Risk Analysis which aims at applying risk analysis as a unifying notion for quantifying and communicating threats to ecosystem services originating from global change...

  14. Caries risk assessment in an educational environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doméjean-Orliaguet, Sophie; Gansky, Stuart A; Featherstone, John D

    2006-12-01

    This study was designed to assess, retrospectively using dental records, the impact on the management of dental caries of new caries risk assessment (CRA) forms and procedures introduced into a predoctoral dental school clinic. Of 3,659 patients with a new patient visit (NPV) and baseline exam (BE) in the two-year period of July 2003 through June 2005, 69 percent (n= 2,516) had a baseline CRA. "Visible cavitation or caries into dentin by radiograph" was significantly correlated to most items included in the CRA form, for example, "frequent between meal snack of sugars/cooked starch" (pinterproximal enamel lesions or radiolucencies" (OR=11.8), and "white spots or occlusal discoloration" (OR=1.50) were positively related. CRA use at follow-up, the use of bacterial tests, antibacterial therapy, and specific patient recommendations were all very low. While the content and usefulness of the CRA procedures were validated, the study highlighted the difficulties of implementing such programs in educational establishments even with an extensive student didactic program and faculty training.

  15. THE MODEL FOR RISK ASSESSMENT ERP-SYSTEMS INFORMATION SECURITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Oladko

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the problem assessment of information security risks in the ERP-system. ERP-system functions and architecture are studied. The model malicious impacts on levels of ERP-system architecture are composed. Model-based risk assessment, which is the quantitative and qualitative approach to risk assessment, built on the partial unification 3 methods for studying the risks of information security - security models with full overlapping technique CRAMM and FRAP techniques developed.

  16. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    contaminant exposure scenario, drilling of natural gas wells near the site. The results of this risk evaluation will guide DOE's future surveillance and monitoring activities in the area to ensure that site conditions are adequately protective of human health. This evaluation is not a comprehensive risk assessment for the site; it is intended to provide assurance that DOE's monitoring approach can detect the presence of site-related contamination at levels well below those that would pose an unacceptable risk to human health.

  17. Risk, surprises and black swans fundamental ideas and concepts in risk assessment and risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2014-01-01

    Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on.Based on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as 'Black Swans'. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them.

  18. Risk assessment and toxicology databases for health effects assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, P.Y.; Wassom, J.S. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, TN (United States)

    1990-12-31

    Scientific and technological developments bring unprecedented stress to our environment. Society has to predict the results of potential health risks from technologically based actions that may have serious, far-reaching consequences. The potential for error in making such predictions or assessment is great and multiplies with the increasing size and complexity of the problem being studied. Because of this, the availability and use of reliable data is the key to any successful forecasting effort. Scientific research and development generate new data and information. Much of the scientific data being produced daily is stored in computers for subsequent analysis. This situation provides both an invaluable resource and an enormous challenge. With large amounts of government funds being devoted to health and environmental research programs and with maintenance of our living environment at stake, we must make maximum use of the resulting data to forecast and avert catastrophic effects. Along with the readily available. The most efficient means of obtaining the data necessary for assessing the health effects of chemicals is to utilize applications include the toxicology databases and information files developed at ORNL. To make most efficient use of the data/information that has already been prepared, attention and resources should be directed toward projects that meticulously evaluate the available data/information and create specialized peer-reviewed value-added databases. Such projects include the National Library of Medicine`s Hazardous Substances Data Bank, and the U.S. Air Force Installation Restoration Toxicology Guide. These and similar value-added toxicology databases were developed at ORNL and are being maintained and updated. These databases and supporting information files, as well as some data evaluation techniques are discussed in this paper with special focus on how they are used to assess potential health effects of environmental agents. 19 refs., 5 tabs.

  19. METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO ASSESSMENTS OF HEALTH RISKS IN HYGIENIC RESEARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Biblin

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This review of publications presents the analysis of national scientific publications and methodological documents on health risks assessments under unfavorable external impacts. In available research publications, the hygienic risks assessment is most often considered in situations of chemicals impact, and such assessment has sufficient methodological providing. Comparison of publications and methodological documents allows determination of the possibility of methodological unity for health risk assessment in conditions of chemical and radiation impacts.

  20. Paternal Age Explains a Major Portion of De Novo Germline Mutation Rate Variability in Healthy Individuals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon L Girard

    Full Text Available De novo mutations (DNM are an important source of rare variants and are increasingly being linked to the development of many diseases. Recently, the paternal age effect has been the focus of a number of studies that attempt to explain the observation that increasing paternal age increases the risk for a number of diseases. Using disease-free familial quartets we show that there is a strong positive correlation between paternal age and germline DNM in healthy subjects. We also observed that germline CNVs do not follow the same trend, suggesting a different mechanism. Finally, we observed that DNM were not evenly distributed across the genome, which adds support to the existence of DNM hotspots.

  1. Paternal Age Explains a Major Portion of De Novo Germline Mutation Rate Variability in Healthy Individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourassa, Cynthia V.; Lemieux Perreault, Louis-Philippe; Legault, Marc-André; Barhdadi, Amina; Ambalavanan, Amirthagowri; Brendgen, Mara; Vitaro, Frank; Noreau, Anne; Dionne, Ginette; Tremblay, Richard E.; Dion, Patrick A.; Boivin, Michel; Dubé, Marie-Pierre; Rouleau, Guy A.

    2016-01-01

    De novo mutations (DNM) are an important source of rare variants and are increasingly being linked to the development of many diseases. Recently, the paternal age effect has been the focus of a number of studies that attempt to explain the observation that increasing paternal age increases the risk for a number of diseases. Using disease-free familial quartets we show that there is a strong positive correlation between paternal age and germline DNM in healthy subjects. We also observed that germline CNVs do not follow the same trend, suggesting a different mechanism. Finally, we observed that DNM were not evenly distributed across the genome, which adds support to the existence of DNM hotspots. PMID:27723766

  2. Maternal and Paternal Age Are Jointly Associated with Childhood Autism in Jamaica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahbar, Mohammad H.; Samms-Vaughan, Maureen; Loveland, Katherine A.; Pearson, Deborah A.; Bressler, Jan; Chen, Zhongxue; Ardjomand-Hessabi, Manouchehr; Shakespeare-Pellington, Sydonnie; Grove, Megan L.; Beecher, Compton; Bloom, Kari; Boerwinkle, Eric

    2012-01-01

    Several studies have reported maternal and paternal age as risk factors for having a child with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD), yet the results remain inconsistent. We used data for 68 age- and sex-matched case-control pairs collected from Jamaica. Using Multivariate General Linear Models (MGLM) and controlling for parity, gestational age, and…

  3. Does father know best? A formal model of the paternal influence on childhood social anxiety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bögels, S.M.; Perotti, E.C.

    2011-01-01

    We explore paternal social anxiety as a specific risk factor for childhood social anxiety in a rational optimization model. In the course of human evolution, fathers specialized in external protection (e.g., confronting the external world) while mothers specialized in internal protection (e.g.,

  4. Academic Stressors and Anxiety in Children: The Role of Paternal Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Grace S. M.; Yeung, K. C.; Wong, Daniel F. K.

    2010-01-01

    We examined the role of paternal support in the relation between academic stress and the mental health of primary school children in Hong Kong. The participants of this cross-sectional study were 1,171 fifth and sixth graders. The results indicated that academic stress was a risk factor that heightened student anxiety levels and that parental…

  5. Paternal Antisocial Behavior (But Not Paternal ADHD) Is Associated With Negative Parenting and Child Conduct Problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeMoine, Kaitlyn A; Romirowsky, Abigail M; Woods, Kelsey E; Chronis-Tuscano, Andrea

    2015-09-23

    Parental psychopathology and parenting quality robustly predict negative outcomes among children with ADHD. Little research has investigated associations between paternal ADHD symptoms and parenting, though there is clear evidence linking maternal ADHD symptoms with both suboptimal parenting and child conduct problems, and considerable research supporting fathers' significant contributions to their children's development. This cross-sectional study examined psychopathology and parenting in a sample of fathers (N = 102) and their 5- to 12-year-old children with previously diagnosed ADHD. Results suggested that paternal antisocial personality disorder (ASPD) symptoms (rather than ADHD symptoms) were robustly associated with child conduct problems, with an indirect effect through paternal negative parenting. This study suggests that negative parenting may be a potential mechanism by which paternal ASPD is associated with child conduct problems, and demonstrates the importance of considering co-occurring psychopathology in research examining adult ADHD, parenting, and child outcomes. © The Author(s) 2015.

  6. Paternity Testing Commission of the International Society of Forensic Genetics: recommendations on genetic investigations in paternity cases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morling, Niels; Allen, Robert W; Carracedo, Angel

    2002-01-01

    The International Society for Forensic Genetics (ISFG) has established a Paternity Testing Commission (PTC) with the purpose of formulating international recommendations concerning genetic investigations in paternity testing. The PTC recommends that paternity testing be performed in accordance...... with the ISO 17025 standards. The ISO 17025 standards are general standards for testing laboratories and the PTC offers explanations and recommendations concerning selected areas of special importance to paternity testing....

  7. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

  8. Risk assessment framework for emerging vector-borne livestock diseases

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, de C.J.; Hoek, M.R.; Fischer, E.A.J.; Koeijer, de A.A.; Bremmer, J.

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this project was to develop a framework for risk assessment of introduction, establishment, spread and persistence of vector-borne livestock diseases by integrating the essential elements of different approaches. This framework will help risk analysts to assess the risk of

  9. Violence Risk Assessment Practices in Denmark: A Multidisciplinary National Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nielsen Louise Hjort

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available With a quadrupling of forensic psychiatric patients in Denmark over the past 20 years, focus on violence risk assessment practices across the country has increased. However, information is lacking regarding Danish risk assessment practice across professional disciplines and clinical settings; little is known about how violence risk assessments are conducted, which instruments are used for what purposes, and how mental health professionals rate their utility and costs. As part of a global survey exploring the application of violence risk assessment across 44 countries, the current study investigated Danish practice across several professional disciplines and settings in which forensic and high-risk mental health patients are assessed and treated. In total, 125 mental health professionals across the country completed the survey. The five instruments that respondents reported most commonly using for risk assessment, risk management planning and risk monitoring were Broset, HCR-20, the START, the PCL-R, and the PCL:SV. Whereas the HCR-20 was rated highest in usefulness for risk assessment, the START was rated most useful for risk management and risk monitoring. No significant differences in utility were observed across professional groups. Unstructured clinical judgments were reported to be faster but more expensive to conduct than using a risk assessment instrument. Implications for clinical practice are discussed.

  10. Risk assessment and safety regulations in offshore oil and gas ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Risk management of which risk assessment is part, and safety regulations are common in the offshore oil and gas industry management system. The process of conducting risk assessment is mostly a challenge for operational personnel assigned to perform this function. The most significant problem is the decision to use ...

  11. IDA’s Integrated Risk Assessment and Management Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-06-01

    Management Model James S. Thomason, Project Leader Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. This work was conducted under IDA’s independent...P-4470 IDA’s Integrated Risk Assessment and Management Model James S. Thomason, Project Leader IDA’s Integrated Risk Assessment and... Management Model INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES “There has been plenty of risk management talk,

  12. A new hypervolume approach for assessing environmental risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denys Yemshanov; Frank H. Koch; Bo Lu; Ronald Fournier; Gericke Cook; Jean J. Turgeon

    2017-01-01

    Assessing risks of uncertain but potentially damaging events, such as environmental disturbances, disease outbreaks and pest invasions, is a key analytical step that informs subsequent decisions about how to respond to these events. We present a continuous risk measure that can be used to assess and prioritize environmental risks from uncertain data in a geographical...

  13. Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) | Amin ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The objectives of this paper are to critically examine the risk assessment provisions of the Malaysian Biosafety Act (2007), and to compare it with several risk ... with only a brief provision on risk assessment and there is no specific coverage on the socio-economic and ethical aspects as well as the precautionary approach.

  14. Differences between Teacher Reports on Universal Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith-Millman, Marissa K.; Flaspohler, Paul D.; Maras, Melissa A.; Splett, Joni Williams; Warmbold, Kristy; Dinnen, Hannah; Luebbe, Aaron

    2017-01-01

    Some universal behavioural screening processes require classroom teachers to complete a risk assessment measure on each student in their class, leading to a possible, but unexplored, problem: risk assessment scores may be influenced by the teacher completing the measure. The current study investigated whether teacher-reported risk assessment…

  15. Critical notes on microbiological risk assessment of food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reij, M.W.; Schothorst, van M.

    2000-01-01

    Although numerous papers on Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) of food products have been published, a number of issues related to it remain unresolved. This paper explains the role of Microbiological Risk Assessment in the context of Risk Analysis as outlined by Codex Alimentarius. It reviews

  16. Familial risk assessment for early-onset coronary heart disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheuner, Maren T; Whitworth, William C; McGruder, Henraya; Yoon, Paula W; Khoury, Muin J

    2006-08-01

    We examined the performance of a familial risk assessment method that stratifies risk for early-onset coronary heart disease by considering the number of relatives with coronary disease, degree of relationship, lineage, and age at diagnosis. By using data from the HealthStyles 2003 survey, we assessed the associations between familial risk and early-onset coronary heart disease, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, and obesity. By using area under the curve statistics, we evaluated the discriminatory ability of various risk assessment models. Of 4,035 respondents, 60% were female and 72% were white, with a mean age of 48.8 years. After adjustment for demographics, strong and moderate risk were significantly associated with approximately a five- and twofold risk of early-onset coronary disease, respectively. After adjustment for demographics and personal history of cardiovascular disease, strong familial risk was also significantly associated with diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, and obesity. A risk assessment model that included familial risk, demographics, and personal history of diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, and obesity was most optimal with an area under the curve statistic of 87.2% Familial risk assessment can stratify risk for early-onset coronary heart disease. Several conditions associated with increased familial risk can be prevented. These results have important implications for risk assessment and risk-reducing interventions.

  17. Paternal age and telomere length in twins

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjelmborg, Jacob B; Dalgård, Christine; Mangino, Massimo

    2015-01-01

    . Based on two independent (discovery and replication) twin studies, comprising 889 twin pairs, we show an increase in the resemblance of leukocyte telomere length between dizygotic twins of older fathers, which is not seen in monozygotic twins. This phenomenon might result from a paternal age...

  18. Paternal age and telomere length in twins

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjelmborg, Jacob B; Dalgård, Christine; Mangino, Massimo

    2015-01-01

    Telomere length, a highly heritable trait, is longer in offspring of older fathers. This perplexing feature has been attributed to the longer telomeres in sperm of older men and it might be an 'epigenetic' mechanism through which paternal age plays a role in telomere length regulation in humans...

  19. Paternal Attachment, Parenting Beliefs and Children's Attachment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Kimberly S.

    2010-01-01

    Relationships between fathers' romantic attachment style, parenting beliefs and father-child attachment security and dependence were examined in a diverse sample of 72 fathers of young children. Paternal romantic attachment style was coded based on fathers' endorsement of a particular style represented in the Hazan and Shaver Three-Category…

  20. Risk assessment of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mena, Kristina D; Gerba, Charles P

    2009-01-01

    drinking water industry, very little has been reported regarding the role of P. aeruginosa in biofilms. Tap water appears to be a significant route of transmission in hospitals, from colonization of plumbing fixtures. It is still not clear if the colonization results from the water in the distribution system, or personnel use within the hospital. Infections and colonization can be significantly reduced by placement of filters on the water taps. The oral dose of P. aeruginosa required to establish colonization in a healthy subject is high (George et al. 1989a). During dose-response studies, even when subjects (mice or humans) were colonized via ingestion, there was no evidence of disease. P. aeruginosa administered by the aerosol route at levels of 10(7) cells did cause disease symptoms in mice, and was lethal in aerosolized doses of 10(9) cells. Aerosol dose-response studies have not been undertaken with human subjects. Human health risks associated with exposure to P. aeruginosa via drinking water ingestion were estimated using a four-step risk assessment approach. The risk of colonization from ingesting P. aeruginosa in drinking water is low. The risk is slightly higher if the subject is taking an antibiotic resisted by P. aeruginosa. The fact that individuals on ampicillin are more susceptible to Pseudomonas gastrointestinal infection probably results from suppression of normal intestinal flora, which would allow Pseudomonas to colonize. The process of estimating risk was significantly constrained because of the absence of specific (quantitative) occurrence data for Pseudomonas. Sensitivity analysis shows that the greatest source of variability/uncertainty in the risk assessment is from the density distribution in the exposure rather than the dose-response or water consumption distributions. In summary, two routes appear to carry the greatest health risks from contacting water contaminated with P. aeruginosa (1) skin exposure in hot tubs and (2) lung exposure from

  1. Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-03-01

    The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ``baseline`` risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site.

  2. Seismic risk assessment of Navarre (Northern Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Rivas-Medina, A.; García Rodríguez, M. J.; Benito, B.; Tsige, M.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.; Murphy, P.

    2009-04-01

    The RISNA project, financed by the Emergency Agency of Navarre (Northern Spain), aims at assessing the seismic risk of the entire region. The final goal of the project is the definition of emergency plans for future earthquakes. With this purpose, four main topics are covered: seismic hazard characterization, geotechnical classification, vulnerability assessment and damage estimation to structures and exposed population. A geographic information system is used to integrate, analyze and represent all information colleted in the different phases of the study. Expected ground motions on rock conditions with a 90% probability of non-exceedance in an exposure time of 50 years are determined following a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology that includes a logic tree with different ground motion and source zoning models. As the region under study is located in the boundary between Spain and France, an effort is required to collect and homogenise seismological data from different national and regional agencies. A new homogenised seismic catalogue, merging data from Spanish, French, Catalonian and international agencies and establishing correlations between different magnitude scales, is developed. In addition, a new seismic zoning model focused on the study area is proposed. Results show that the highest ground motions on rock conditions are expected in the northeastern part of the region, decreasing southwards. Seismic hazard can be expressed as low-to-moderate. A geotechnical classification of the entire region is developed based on surface geology, available borehole data and morphotectonic constraints. Frequency-dependent amplification factors, consistent with code values, are proposed. The northern and southern parts of the region are characterized by stiff and soft soils respectively, being the softest soils located along river valleys. Seismic hazard maps including soil effects are obtained by applying these factors to the seismic hazard maps

  3. Risk Assessment Model and Supply Chain Risk Catalog

    OpenAIRE

    Borut Jereb; Tina Cvahte; Bojan Rosi

    2011-01-01

    By managing risk on the level of the supply chain we gain insight of all potential threats to all organizations involved in the chain as well as to the supply chain itself, especially to the logistics resources: flow of goods, services and information; logistics infrastructure and suprastructure; and people. Supply chain risk management should represent a crucial activity in every organization. As there is currently no standard specifically aimed at holistic supply chain risk management, we p...

  4. [Mutagenic effect of advanced paternal age in neurocardiofaciocutaneous syndrome].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seemanová, Eva; Zenker, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Increased frequency of chromosomal aberration in children of mothers aged 35 years and older is very well known and since 1973 it is an indication to investigate the foetal karyotype in cells obtained by invasive method (amniocentesis), because the genetic risk of severe affection is higher than the risk of necessary invasive method. Mutagenic effect of advanced paternal age is known only among geneticists (1-4). The reason is not only low absolute risk of new mutation but particularly a high number of involved genes and last not least the limited spectrum of autosomal dominant disorders without abiotrofic character. Therefore the preventive methods for elimination of this risk are very limited. Only a few of them could be recognized prenatally by noninvasive methods of prenatal diagnostics. Genealogical, anamnestic and clinical data of 83 patients were studied with clinical suspection on neurocardiofaciocutaneous syndrome (NCFCs) (5-7). The diagnosis has not been confirmed in 29 patients, no mutation was detected in 8 investigated genes (PTPN11, SOS1, HRAS, BRAF, RAF1, MEK1, KRAS, NRAS). In 54 patients with autosomal dominant inherited Noonan syndrome, Costello syndrome and cardiofaciocutaneous syndrome the diagnosis was confirmed on DNA level and the biological fitness was estimated for each disorder. Paternal age at conception was compared in the group of patients with familial and sporadic occurrence of Noonan and NCFC syndromes. The clinical prognosis of this disorder is represented by biological fitness of patients. Coefficient of selection is 0,6 in Noonan and LEOPARD syndromes (29 from 48). All 6 patients with Costello and cardiofaciocutaneous syndromes developed due to a new mutation. Paternal age at birth was studied in 83 children patients with autosomal dominant Neurocardiofaciocutaneous syndrome (Noonan, LEOPARD, Costello, CFC) with a high population incidence and decreased biological fitness. Due to severe congenital heart defects, failure to thrive

  5. Economics of paternalism: the hidden costs of self-commanding strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christophe Salvat

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposes an economic assessment of paternalism by comparing different alternative responses to dynamically inconsistent behaviors consecutive to hyperbolic discounting. Two main types of action are possible, self-commanding strategies and paternalism The first category includes personal rules and pre-commitment The second can be subcategorized between coercive and non-coercive forms of paternalism, which are respectively associated (although it is debatable with legal paternalism and with ‘nudges’. Despite being self-inflicted, self-commanding strategies are actually not cost free and can result in a dramatic cutback of people’s freedom of choice. Likewise, legal paternalism can, on occasion, be less harmful than personal rules or pre-commitment; similarly, nudges can be more invasive and less effective than their proponents want us to believe. The aim of this paper is not to propose any standardized form of response to irrational behavior (whatever that may mean but to argue, on the contrary, that every case should be individually appraised. Individual situations can be remedied by self-commanding strategies or by paternalistic policies, either in isolation or in combination.

  6. Effects of paternal depression on fathers' parenting behaviors: a meta-analytic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Sylia; Durbin, C Emily

    2010-03-01

    One possible mechanism for the familial transmission of depression is through its negative effects on parenting and the parent-child relationship. Although previous research indicates that depression is associated with parenting impairment for mothers, no quantitative synthesis of the empirical literature on the effects of paternal depression on fathers' parenting has been conducted. The present meta-analysis examined the effects of paternal depression on fathers' positive and negative parenting behaviors. The mean effect sizes, computed using 40 independent effect sizes derived from 28 published and unpublished studies, indicated that paternal depression has significant, though small, effects on parenting, with depressed fathers demonstrating decreased positive and increased negative parenting behaviors. Several moderating effects were found, including child and father age, and sample race/ethnicity, and effects were comparable for studies that used self-report measures and observational methods to assess fathers' parenting behaviors. Moreover, effect sizes for the relationship between paternal depression and fathers' parenting behaviors were comparable to those found for mothers. The present findings indicate that paternal depression has a significant and deleterious effect on parenting behaviors by fathers, and speak to the importance of continuing to include fathers in research on child development and the family environment. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Risk factors and assessment for cardiovascular disease among HIV ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: cardiovascular risk factors are prevalent in HIV-positive patients which places them at increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aimed to determine the risk factors and risk assessment for CVD in HIV-positive patients with and without antiretroviral therapy. Methods: this was a cross-sectional study of ...

  8. Experimentally reduced paternity affects paternal effort and reproductive success in pied flycatchers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lifjeld; Slagsvold; Ellegren

    1998-02-01

    The question of whether, and how, male birds should change their parental effort in response to reduced paternity is a controversial issue among behavioural ecologists. We report a study on pied flycatchers, Ficedula hypoleuca, in which paternity was manipulated through experimentally induced mate switching during the female's fertile period. The paternity of care-giving males ranged from 0 to 100% of the brood. The number of parental males per nest varied between zero and two, and the amount of male assistance in nestling provisioning had a marked effect on female reproductive success. For 17 monogamous males, provisioning effort and the body mass of nestlings on day 12 were reduced at low levels of paternity. However, the shape of the effort function was not unambiguously determined. Male provisioning effort showed a curvilinear decline, whereas nestling body mass showed a linear decline. Two important assumptions of the theory of optimal parental effort seem to be fulfilled in this case: that males had reliable cues to their paternity, and that paternity is likely to be increased in future (normal) breeding attempts. The fact that males reduced their effort at the expense of the welfare of the offspring suggests that there are significant costs of parental care in this species. Whether a similar response to cuckoldry occurs in unmanipulated breeding situations remains to be studied.Copyright 1998 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

  9. The effect of paternal age on offspring intelligence and personality when controlling for paternal trait level.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruben C Arslan

    Full Text Available Paternal age at conception has been found to predict the number of new genetic mutations. We examined the effect of father's age at birth on offspring intelligence, head circumference and personality traits. Using the Minnesota Twin Family Study sample we tested paternal age effects while controlling for parents' trait levels measured with the same precision as offspring's. From evolutionary genetic considerations we predicted a negative effect of paternal age on offspring intelligence, but not on other traits. Controlling for parental intelligence (IQ had the effect of turning an initially positive association non-significantly negative. We found paternal age effects on offspring IQ and Multidimensional Personality Questionnaire Absorption, but they were not robustly significant, nor replicable with additional covariates. No other noteworthy effects were found. Parents' intelligence and personality correlated with their ages at twin birth, which may have obscured a small negative effect of advanced paternal age (<1% of variance explained on intelligence. We discuss future avenues for studies of paternal age effects and suggest that stronger research designs are needed to rule out confounding factors involving birth order and the Flynn effect.

  10. Photogrammetry in Experiments for Hydrogeological Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barazzetti, L.; Scaioni, M.; Feng, T.; Qiao, G.; Lu, P.; Tong, X.; Li, R.

    2013-01-01

    The construction of scaled-down simulation platforms is largely used to support investigations for the assessment of hydrological risk. Achieved outcomes can be integrated and assimilated to numerical analyses for the study of unstable slope collapse, debris transport, and hydrological modeling in general. During design of such simulation platforms, a relevant role has to be given to the spatial sensor network (SSN) to deploy, which is in charge of collecting geo-referenced, quantitative information during experiments. Photogrammetry (including 3D imaging sensors) can play an important role in SSN owing to its capability of collecting 2D images and 3D point clouds data covering wide surfaces without any contact. Different kinds of metric measurements can be then extracted from datasets. The aim of this paper is to give an overview and some examples on the potential of photogrammetry in hydrogeological experiments. After a general introduction on a few preliminary issues (sensors, calibration, ground reference, usage of imaging or ranging sensors), potential applications are classified into 2D and 3D categories. Examples are focused on a scaled-down landslide simulation platform developed at Tongji University (Shanghai, P. R. China).

  11. 78 FR 27939 - Draft Interagency Risk Assessment-Listeria monocytogenes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-13

    ... Draft Interagency Risk Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens: Notice of... Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens.'' This draft quantitative risk assessment (QRA... conditions, such as Listeria (L.) monocytogenes contamination of certain ready-to-eat (RTE) foods, for...

  12. Exposure Data for Travel Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, N O; Koornstra, Matthijs; Broughton, Jeremy

    1999-01-01

    This report illustrates why risk and exposure data are critical for policymaking at local, national and EU levels.Conclusions are drawn about the evaluation and use of risk information for different modes and estimates are presented for the fatality risk of various travel modes in the EU....

  13. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... greater risk for heart disease and other conditions: Risk Factors High blood pressure (hypertension) High LDL cholesterol ("bad" cholesterol) Low HDL cholesterol ("good" cholesterol) High triglycerides High blood ... to 29.9) and have two or more risk factors, it is recommended that you lose weight. Even ...

  14. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Ozone Health Risk Assessment for Selected Urban Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    The health risk assessment described in this report estimated various health effects associated with O3 exposures as well as the reduced risks for one O3 season associated with just meeting the current O3 NAAQS.

  16. FIFRA Peer Review: Proposed Risk Assessment Methods Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    From September 11-14, 2012, EPA participated in a Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act Scientific Advisory Panel (SAP) meeting on a proposed pollinator risk assessment framework for determining the potential risks of pesticides to honey bees.

  17. Human Health Risk Assessment: A case study application of principles in dose response assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This case study application workshop will build on fundamental concepts and techniques in risk assessment presented and archived at previous TRAC meeting workshops. Practical examples from publicly available, peer reviewed risk assessments will be used as teaching aids. Course ...

  18. Systematic Suicide Risk Assessment for Patients With Schizophrenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Charlotte Gjørup; Wallenstein Jensen, Signe Olrik; Gradus, Jaimie

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: Systematic suicide risk assessment is recommended for patients with schizophrenia; however, little is known about the implementation of suicide risk assessment in routine clinical practice. The study aimed to determine the use of systematic suicide risk assessment at discharge....... Results: The proportion of patients receiving suicide risk assessment at discharge from a psychiatric ward increased from 72% (95% confidence interval [CI]=71%-74%) in 2005, when the national monitoring began, to 89% (CI.89%-90%) in 2009. Within one year after discharge, 1% of all registered patients had...... died by suicide and 8% had attempted suicide. One out of three patients who died by suicide had no documented suicide risk assessment before discharge. Conclusions: The use of systematic suicide risk assessment at discharge among patients with schizophrenia increased in Denmark between 2005 and 2009...

  19. Young Adult South African Daughters’ Perceptions of Paternal Involvement and Nurturance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonja Wessels

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to assess current and retrospective levels of reported and desired paternal involvement experienced by young adult daughters, as well as current and retrospective levels of paternal nurturance. A sample of 89, female, third year South African Psychology students completed self-administered questionnaires, consisting of a biographical questionnaire, four Father Involvement Scales and two Nurturant Father Scales. Daughters reported their fathers as having been involved and nurturing while growing up. Although they indicated that they perceived fathers as somewhat less involved in young adulthood; they reported being satisfied with the level of father involvement. Daughters also reported high current paternal nurturance. The findings therefore indicate that a group of middle to upper middle-class South African daughters perceived their fathers as relatively involved in their lives and suggest that their fathers’ involvement extends beyond traditional father roles.

  20. Effective Methodology for Security Risk Assessment of Computer Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Daniel F. García; Adrián Fernández

    2013-01-01

    Today, computer systems are more and more complex and support growing security risks. The security managers need to find effective security risk assessment methodologies that allow modeling well the increasing complexity of current computer systems but also maintaining low the complexity of the assessment procedure. This paper provides a brief analysis of common security risk assessment methodologies leading to the selection of a proper methodology to fulfill these requirements. Then, a detai...

  1. Assessing human health risk in the USDA forest service

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamel, D.R. [Department of Agriculture-Forest Service, Washington, DC (United States)

    1990-12-31

    This paper identifies the kinds of risk assessments being done by or for the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service. Summaries of data sources currently in use and the pesticide risk assessments completed by the agency or its contractors are discussed. An overview is provided of the agency`s standard operating procedures for the conduct of toxicological, ecological, environmental fate, and human health risk assessments.

  2. Effect of paternal alcohol use on mother, child and adolescent health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anand Lingeswaran

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Children and spouses of alcohol-dependent parents are at higher risk of developing substance abuse, emotional, behavioral, and mental health disorders at all stages of development leading into adulthood. Studies on the impact of alcohol use in children and spouse have been poorly studied. Aims: The aim of this study is to study the general health of the wife, children and adolescents of a family with paternal alcohol use and to assess the personal, family, social, occupational and educational environment of families with paternal alcohol use. Subjects and Methods: Cross-sectional analytical study in the inpatient unit of the Department of Psychiatry, Indira Gandhi Medical College and Research Institute. Participants were selected using inclusion and exclusion criteria and informed consent was obtained for all participants. International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10 diagnosis was used to diagnose alcohol dependence in the father. Sociodemographic proforma, General Health Questionnaire (GHQ, World Health Organization Quality of Life-Bref (WHOQOL-BREF version were used to collect clinical data of the children and spouse. SPSS version 13 was used to analyze descriptive statistics and mean scores on the GHQ and WHOQOL-BREF scale. Results: Mean GHQ scores were highest in spouses (32.92, children between 12–15 years (20.34 and 16–20 years (25.01 years age group. QOL scores were low among spouses and children across all age groups. Conclusions: Physical, psychological health, well-being and QOL are significantly impacted in families where the father is alcohol dependent. Spouses were more severely affected than children.

  3. Risk Assessment and Hierarchical Risk Management of Enterprises in Chemical Industrial Parks Based on Catastrophe Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Zhenyu Liu; Yun Zhang; Shushen Zhang; Fenglin Yang; Guobao Song; Yu Chen

    2012-01-01

    According to risk systems theory and the characteristics of the chemical industry, an index system was established for risk assessment of enterprises in chemical industrial parks (CIPs) based on the inherent risk of the source, effectiveness of the prevention and control mechanism, and vulnerability of the receptor. A comprehensive risk assessment method based on catastrophe theory was then proposed and used to analyze the risk levels of ten major chemical enterprises in the Songmu Island CIP...

  4. INFORMATION SECURITY RISK ASSESSMENT USING EXISTING LEGAL AND METHODOLOGICAL BASE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Trubei

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article provides a survey of the existing regulatory framework for information security riskmanagement. Practical methods for information security risk and vulnerability assessment are proposed.

  5. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  6. Cavity degradation risk insurance assessment. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hampson, C.; Neill, P.; de Bivort, L.

    1980-01-01

    This study examined the risks and risk management issues involved with the implementation by electric power utilities of compressed air energy storage and underground pumped hydro storage systems. The results are listed in terms of relative risks for the construction and operation of these systems in different geologic deposits, with varying amounts of pressurization, with natural or man-made disasters in the vicinity of the storage equipment, and with different modes of operating the facilities. (LCL)

  7. THE ASSESSMENT PROCEDURE OF THE OPERATIONAL RISK EVENTS

    OpenAIRE

    Iulia Iuga

    2009-01-01

    A credit institution must establish a management framework of the operational risk.This framework must cover the appetite and tolerance to the operational risk of a credit institution,in accordance with the management policies of this risk, including the measure and method inwhich the operational risk is transferred outside the credit institution.The management framework of the operational risk should include policies and processes for theidentification, assessment, monitoring and control/dim...

  8. Maternal and paternal factors associated with congenital syphilis in Shenzhen, China: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, J-B; Feng, T-J; Yang, T-B; Hong, F-C; Lan, L-N; Zhang, C-L

    2014-02-01

    Maternal and paternal factors create considerable obstacles to the elimination of congenital syphilis (CS). A clear understanding of maternal and paternal factors is important in order to define interventions in every community. This study aimed to investigate the maternal and paternal factors associated with CS. A prospective cohort study was conducted from April 25, 2007 to October 31, 2012 at the Shenzhen Center for Chronic Disease Control and Prevention (SCCDC) in China. We screened 279,334 pregnant women and identified 838 women with syphilis. Finally, a total of 360 women with syphilis were included for analysis. At the end of follow-up, 34 infants [9.4 %, 95 % confidence interval (CI): 6.8-12.9 %] were diagnosed with CS. Following adjustment for confounders, maternal history of syphilis [adjusted risk ratio (aRR) = 0.21], prenatal care (aRR = 0.12), and complete treatment (aRR = 0.22) reduced the risk of infants being infected. Every two-fold increase of titer of non-treponemal antibodies (aRR = 1.88), early stage of syphilis (aRR = 9.59), a shorter length of time between the end of the first treatment to childbirth (aRR = 5.39), and every week of delay in treatment (aRR = 2.25) for maternal syphilis as well as paternal history of cocaine use (aRR = 6.28) and positive (aRR = 3.30) or unknown (aRR = 2.79) status of syphilis increased the risk of infants being infected. CS also increased the risk (aRR = 8.02) of neonatal death. Maternal and paternal factors constituted two separate profiles associated with CS. To become more effective, future strategies for the prevention of CS should be targeted to each profile.

  9. Human Health Toxicity Values in Superfund Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    This memorandum revises the hierarchy of human health toxicity values generally recommended for use inr isk assessments, originally presented in Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund Volume I, Part A.

  10. Dangerousness and risk assessment: the state of the art.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Arie; Rosca, Paula; Khawalled, Razak; Gruzniewski, Adrian; Grinshpoon, Alex

    2003-01-01

    Risk or dangerousness is an issue which burdens the minds of all mental health and law enforcement professionals. Researchers have attempted to define its extent and constituent elements and to predict and assess it. Risk assessment is a complex task, influenced by the interaction of many variables, such as previous pattern of violence, biological, sociological and psychological factors, divided into facilitating and inhibiting factors. In our paper we discuss the theoretical concepts linked with dangerousness prediction and assessment, and then review the "first" and "second" generations of literature on dangerousness and risk assessment, including the actuarial instruments. We then present the current trends in the field, concentrating on the correlation between dangerousness and mental disorders, dangerousness analysis and risk management, a wider concept including prevention, treatment and communication of risk. Although great progress has been made in this field, there are still many unresolved issues, among them the development of valid instruments for the assessment of risk.

  11. Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolt Jeffrey D

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization.

  12. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  13. Development of the Sports Organization Concussion Risk Assessment Tool (SOCRAT).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeung, A; Munjal, V; Virji-Babul, N

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we describe the development of a novel tool-the Sports Organization Concussion Risk Assessment Tool (SOCRAT)-to assist sport organizations in assessing the overall risk of concussion at a team level by identifying key risk factors. We first conducted a literature review to identify risk factors of concussion using ice hockey as a model. We then developed an algorithm by combining the severity and the probability of occurrence of concussions of the identified risk factors by adapting a risk assessment tool commonly used in engineering applications. The following risk factors for ice hockey were identified: age, history of previous concussions, previous body checking experience, allowance of body checking, type of helmet worn and the game or practice environment. These risk factors were incorporated into the algorithm, resulting in an individual risk priority number (RPN) for each risk factor and an overall RPN that provides an estimate of the risk in the given circumstances. The SOCRAT can be used to analyse how different risk factors contribute to the overall risk of concussion. The tool may be tailored to organizations to provide: (1) an RPN for each risk factor and (2) an overall RPN that takes into account all the risk factors. Further work is needed to validate the tool based on real data.

  14. Assessing risk: the role of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in patient safety improvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wreathall, J; Nemeth, C

    2004-06-01

    Morbidity and mortality due to "medical errors" compel better understanding of health care as a system. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been used to assess the designs of high hazard, low risk systems such as commercial nuclear power plants and chemical manufacturing plants and is now being studied for its potential in the improvement of patient safety. PRA examines events that contribute to adverse outcomes through the use of event tree analysis and determines the likelihood of event occurrence through fault tree analysis. It complements tools already in use in patient safety such as failure modes and effects analyses (FMEAs) and root cause analyses (RCAs). PRA improves on RCA by taking account of the more complex causal interrelationships that are typical in health care. It also enables the analyst to examine potential solution effectiveness by direct graphical representations. However, PRA simplifies real world complexity by forcing binary conditions on events, and it lacks adequate probability data (although recent developments help to overcome these limitations). Its reliance on expert assessment calls for deep domain knowledge which has to come from research performed at the "sharp end" of acute care.

  15. Assessment of weather risk on chestnut production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, M. G.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Caramelo, L.

    2009-04-01

    to March) precipitation, the number of days with maximum temperature between 24°C and 28°C and the number of days of May with minimum temperature below 0°C is able to model the chestnut productivity with r2 equal to 0.79. It should be pointed out that the relation between weather/climate and chestnut productivity may change over time. Finally, it is important to express objectively the effects of temperature and precipitation extremes on the chestnut productivity since temperature is one of the global circulation models predicted variables with less uncertainty. With these tools will be possible to assess the weather related risk on chestnut production as well as infer about evolution of the adequate conditions to the chestnut trees in the actual plantations and about the expansion of this specie. Bounous, G. (2002) "Il castagno" [Chestnut.] - Edagricole, Bologna. [In Ital.] Gomes-Laranjo, J., Coutinho, J.P., Ferreira-Cardoso, J., Pimentel-Pereira, M., Ramos, C., Torres-Pereira, J.(2005) "Assessment to a new concept of chestnut orchard management in vegetative wall.". Acta Hort. 693: 707-712. Gomes-Laranjo, J.C.E., Peixoto, F., Wong Fong Sang, H.W., Torres-Pereira, J.M.G.(2006) "Study of the temperature effect in three chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) cultivars' behavior". J. Plant Physiol. 163: 945-955.

  16. Assessing the Construct Validity of Risk Attitude

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Smidts, A.

    2000-01-01

    Two major approaches to measuring risk attitude are compared. One, based on the expected utility model is derived from responses to lotteries and direct scaling. The other measure is a psychometric approach based on Likert statements that produces a unidimensional risk attitude scale. The data are

  17. Credit risk assessment: Evidence from banking industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Ghodrati

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Measuring different risk factors such as credit risk in banking industry has been an interesting area of studies. The artificial neural network is a nonparametric method developed to succeed for measuring credit risk and this method is applied to measure the credit risk. This research’s neural network follows back propagation paradigm, which enables it to use historical data for predicting future values with very good out of sample fitting. Macroeconomic variables including GDP, exchange rate, inflation rate, stock price index, and M2 are used to forecast credit risk for two Iranian banks; namely Saderat and Sarmayeh over the period 2007-2011. Research data are being tested for ADF and Causality Granger tests before entering the ANN to achieve the best lag structure for the research model. MSE and R values for the developed ANN in this research respectively are 86×〖10〗^(-4 and 0.9885, respectively. The results showed that ANN was able to predict banks’ credit risk with low error. Sensibility analyses which has accomplished on this research’s ANN corroborates that M2 has the highest effect on the ANN’s credit risk and should be considered as an additional leading indicator by Iran’s banking authorities. These matters confirm validation of macroeconomic notions in Iran’s credit systematic risk.

  18. Risk Assessment and Risk Management in Offenders with Intellectual Disabilities: Are We There Yet?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouls, Claudia; Jeandarme, Inge

    2015-01-01

    Research on risk assessment and risk management in offenders with intellectual disabilities (OIDs), although far behind compared to the mainstream offender literature, is now expanding. The current review provides an overview of the predictive value of risk assessment and treatment outcome monitoring tools developed for both mainstream forensic…

  19. Guidance on the environmental risk assessment of plant pests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsne Simon, E.

    2011-01-01

    The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) requested the Panel on Plant Health to develop a methodology for assessing the environmental risks posed by harmful organisms that may enter, establish and spread in the European Union. To do so, the Panel first reviewed the methods for assessing the envi......The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) requested the Panel on Plant Health to develop a methodology for assessing the environmental risks posed by harmful organisms that may enter, establish and spread in the European Union. To do so, the Panel first reviewed the methods for assessing...... the environmental risks of plant pests that have previously been used in pest risk assessment. The limitations identified by the review led the Panel to define the new methodology for environmental risk assessment which is described in this guidance document. The guidance is primarily addressed to the EFSA PLH...

  20. OPPT workplan risk assessment for antimony trioxide (CASRN ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This assessment will focus on the ecological hazards that may be associated with ATO use in flame retardants. Because ATO’s use in PET plastics was previously evaluated and determined to present minimal concerns for human health and the environment (EU, 2008), this use scenario will not be evaluated here. Human health risks have been evaluated previously and will be summarized in this assessment. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.