WorldWideScience

Sample records for assessing infrastructure vulnerability

  1. Assessing infrastructure vulnerability to major floods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jenssen, Lars

    1998-12-31

    This thesis proposes a method for assessing the direct effects of serious floods on a physical infrastructure or utility. This method should be useful in contingency planning and in the design of structures likely to be damaged by flooding. A review is given of (1) methods of floodplain management and strategies for mitigating floods, (2) methods of risk analysis that will become increasingly important in flood management, (3) methods for hydraulic computations, (4) a variety of scour assessment methods and (5) applications of geographic information systems (GIS) to the analysis of flood vulnerability. Three computer codes were developed: CULVCAP computes the headwater level for circular and box culverts, SCOUR for assessing riprap stability and scour depths, and FASTFLOOD prepares input rainfall series and input files for the rainfall-runoff model used in the case study. A road system in central Norway was chosen to study how to analyse the flood vulnerability of an infrastructure. Finally, the thesis proposes a method for analysing the flood vulnerability of physical infrastructure. The method involves a general stage that will provide data on which parts of the infrastructure are potentially vulnerable to flooding and how to analyse them, and a specific stage which is concerned with analysing one particular kind of physical infrastructure in a study area. 123 refs., 59 figs., 17 tabs= .

  2. Approaches for assessment of vulnerability of critical infrastructures to weather-related hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidsvig, Unni; Uzielli, Marco; Vidar Vangelsten, Bjørn

    2016-04-01

    Critical infrastructures are essential components for the modern society to maintain its function, and malfunctioning of one of the critical infrastructure systems may have far-reaching consequences. Climate changes may lead to increase in frequency and intensity of weather-related hazards, creating challenges for the infrastructures. This paper outlines approaches to assess vulnerability posed by weather-related hazards to infrastructures. The approaches assess factors that affect the probability of a malfunctioning of the infrastructure should a weather-related threat occur, as well factors that affect the societal consequences of the infrastructure malfunctioning. Even if vulnerability factors are normally very infrastructure specific and hazard dependent, generic factors could be defined and analyzed. For the vulnerability and resilience of the infrastructure, such factors include e.g. robustness, buffer capacity, protection, quality, age, adaptability and transparency. For the vulnerability of the society in relation to the infrastructure, such factors include e.g. redundancy, substitutes and cascading effects. A semi-quantitative, indicator-based approach is proposed, providing schemes for ranking of the most important vulnerability indicators relevant for weather-related hazards on a relative scale. The application of the indicators in a semi-quantitative risk assessment is also demonstrated. In addition, a quantitative vulnerability model is proposed in terms of vulnerability (representing degree of loss) as a function of intensity, which is adaptable to different types of degree of loss (e.g. fraction of infrastructure users that lose their service, fraction of repair costs to full reconstruction costs). The vulnerability model can be calibrated with empirical data using deterministic calibration or a variety of probabilistic calibration approaches to account for the uncertainties within the model. The research leading to these results has received funding

  3. Coastal Vulnerability and risk assessment of infrastructures, natural and cultural heritage sites in Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrakis, George; Kampanis, Nikolaos

    2016-04-01

    The majority of human activities are concentrated around coastal areas, making coastline retreat, a significant threat to coastal infrastructure, thus increasing protection cost and investment revenue losses. In this study the management of coastal areas in terms of protecting coastal infrastructures, cultural and environmental heritage sites, through risk assessment analysis is been made. The scope is to provide data for spatial planning for future developments in the coastal zone and the protection of existing ones. Also to determine the impact of coastal changes related to the loss of natural resources, agricultural land and beaches. The analysis is based on a multidisciplinary approach, combining environmental, spatial and economic data. This can be implemented by integrating the assessment of vulnerability of coasts, the spatial distribution and structural elements of coastal infrastructure (transport, tourism, and energy) and financial data by region, in a spatial database. The approach is based on coastal vulnerability estimations, considering sea level rise, land loss, extreme events, safety, adaptability and resilience of infrastructure and natural sites. It is based on coupling of environmental indicators and econometric models to determine the socio-economic impact in coastal infrastructure, cultural and environmental heritage sites. The indicators include variables like the coastal geomorphology; coastal slope; relative sea-level rise rate; shoreline erosion/accretion rate; mean tidal range and mean wave height. The anthropogenic factors include variables like settlements, sites of cultural heritage, transport networks, land uses, significance of infrastructure (e.g. military, power plans) and economic activities. The analysis in performed by a GIS application. The forcing variables are determined with the use of sub-indices related to coastal geomorphology, climate and wave variables and the socioeconomics of the coastal zone. The Greek coastline in

  4. Guidelines for harmonized vulnerability and risk assessment for non-nuclear critical infrastructure: STREST Reference Report 3

    OpenAIRE

    Anastasiadis, Anastasios; Argyroudis, Sotiris; BABIČ Anže; Basco, Anna; CASOTTO Chiara; Crowley, Helen; Dolšek, Matjaž; FOTOPOULOU Stavroula; GALBUSERA LUCA; Giannopoulos, Georgios; Giardini, Domenico; KAKDERI Kalliopi; KARAFAGKA Stella; Matos, José Pedro; PITILAKIS Kyriazis

    2016-01-01

    Loss assessment of critical infrastructures (CIs) subject to natural hazards is fundamental to stress tests. The systemic approach that lifelines require for performance modelling is an open research topic, given their logical and physical complexity. The Work Package 4 (WP4) of STREST focused on the guidelines for the vulnerability assessment of critical infrastructures categorized as: A Individual, single-site infrastructures with high risk and potential for high local impact and regiona...

  5. Assessing the Vulnerability of Large Critical Infrastructure Using Fully-Coupled Blast Effects Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McMichael, L D; Noble, C R; Margraf, J D; Glascoe, L G

    2009-03-26

    Structural failures, such as the MacArthur Maze I-880 overpass in Oakland, California and the I-35 bridge in Minneapolis, Minnesota, are recent examples of our national infrastructure's fragility and serve as an important reminder of such infrastructure in our everyday lives. These two failures, as well as the World Trade Center's collapse and the levee failures in New Orleans, highlight the national importance of protecting our infrastructure as much as possible against acts of terrorism and natural hazards. This paper describes a process for evaluating the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to large blast loads using a fully-coupled finite element approach. A description of the finite element software and modeling technique is discussed along with the experimental validation of the numerical tools. We discuss how such an approach can be used for specific problems such as modeling the progressive collapse of a building.

  6. Next-generation Algorithms for Assessing Infrastructure Vulnerability and Optimizing System Resilience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burchett, Deon L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Chen, Richard Li-Yang [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Phillips, Cynthia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Richard, Jean-Philippe [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-05-01

    This report summarizes the work performed under the project project Next-Generation Algo- rithms for Assessing Infrastructure Vulnerability and Optimizing System Resilience. The goal of the project was to improve mathematical programming-based optimization technology for in- frastructure protection. In general, the owner of a network wishes to design a network a network that can perform well when certain transportation channels are inhibited (e.g. destroyed) by an adversary. These are typically bi-level problems where the owner designs a system, an adversary optimally attacks it, and then the owner can recover by optimally using the remaining network. This project funded three years of Deon Burchett's graduate research. Deon's graduate advisor, Professor Jean-Philippe Richard, and his Sandia advisors, Richard Chen and Cynthia Phillips, supported Deon on other funds or volunteer time. This report is, therefore. essentially a replication of the Ph.D. dissertation it funded [12] in a format required for project documentation. The thesis had some general polyhedral research. This is the study of the structure of the feasi- ble region of mathematical programs, such as integer programs. For example, an integer program optimizes a linear objective function subject to linear constraints, and (nonlinear) integrality con- straints on the variables. The feasible region without the integrality constraints is a convex polygon. Careful study of additional valid constraints can significantly improve computational performance. Here is the abstract from the dissertation: We perform a polyhedral study of a multi-commodity generalization of variable upper bound flow models. In particular, we establish some relations between facets of single- and multi- commodity models. We then introduce a new family of inequalities, which generalizes traditional flow cover inequalities to the multi-commodity context. We present encouraging numerical results. We also consider the directed

  7. Critical infrastructures risk and vulnerability assessment in transportation of dangerous goods transportation by road and rail

    CERN Document Server

    Vamanu, Bogdan I; Katina, Polinpapilinho F

    2016-01-01

    This book addresses a key issue in today’s society: the safer transport of dangerous goods, taking into account people, the environment and economics. In particular, it offers a potential approach to identifying the issues, developing the models, providing the methods and recommending the tools to address the risks and vulnerabilities involved. We believe this can only be achieved by assessing those risks in a comprehensive, quantifiable and integrated manner. Examining both rail and road transportation, the book is divided into three sections, covering: the mature and accepted (by both academia and practitioners) methodology of risk assessment; the vulnerability assessment – a novel approach proposed as a vital complement to risk; guidance and support to build the tools that make methods and equations to yield: the Decision Support Systems. Throughout the book, the authors do not endeavor to provide THE solution. Instead, the book offers insightful food for thought for students, researchers, practitioner...

  8. Probabilistic modeling of vulnerability of road infrastructures to floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uzielli Marco

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Factors which contribute to the vulnerability of physical elements such as road infrastructures to a natural hazard such as a flood event are pervaded by uncertainty due to the complexity of the hazard, of the vulnerable infrastructure and of their physical interaction. In the context of risk management efforts, it is conceptually correct to explicitly address this uncertainty and to parameterize the criticality of the vulnerable element and, consequently, an explicit target degree of conservatism and reliability in risk assessment and mitigation strategies. This paper illustrates the results of the probabilistic characterization of the vulnerability of road infrastructures to flood events for two areas in South-Eastern Norway. Flood intensity and road vulnerability serve as inputs to an analytical model, which expresses the latter as a function of the former with respect to a user-set level of probability of exceedance. Deterministic and probabilistic vulnerability estimates are compared quantitatively, and the results are assessed and analyzed critically.

  9. Assessing Storm Vulnerabilities and Resilience Strategies: A Scenario-Method for Engaging Stakeholders of Public/Private Maritime Infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, A.; Burroughs, R.

    2014-12-01

    This presentation discusses a new method to assess vulnerability and resilience strategies for stakeholders of coastal-dependent transportation infrastructure, such as seaports. Much coastal infrastructure faces increasing risk to extreme events resulting from sea level rise and tropical storms. As seen after Hurricane Sandy, natural disasters result in economic costs, damages to the environment, and negative consequences on resident's quality of life. In the coming decades, tough decisions will need to be made about investment measures to protect critical infrastructure. Coastal communities will need to weigh the costs and benefits of a new storm barrier, for example, against those of retrofitting, elevating or simply doing nothing. These decisions require understanding the priorities and concerns of stakeholders. For ports, these include shippers, insurers, tenants, and ultimate consumers of the port cargo on a local and global scale, all of whom have a stake in addressing port vulnerabilities.Decision-makers in exposed coastal areas need tools to understand stakeholders concerns and perceptions of potential resilience strategies. For ports, they need answers to: 1) How will stakeholders be affected? 2) What strategies could be implemented to build resilience? 3) How effectively would the strategies mitigate stakeholder concerns? 4) What level of time and investment would strategies require? 5) Which stakeholders could/should take responsibility? Our stakeholder-based method provides answers to questions 1-3 and forms the basis for further work to address 4 and 5.Together with an expert group, we developed a pilot study for stakeholders of Rhode Island's critical energy port, the Port of Providence. Our method uses a plausible extreme storm scenario with localized visualizations and a portfolio of potential resilience strategies. We tailor a multi-criteria decision analysis tool and, through a series of workshops, we use the storm scenario, resilience strategies

  10. Flood vulnerability of critical infrastructure in Cork, Ireland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Bruijn Karin M.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent flood events in Ireland and particularly in County Cork have caused significant disruption to health service provisions, interruption of water and power supplies, and damage to roads and other transportation infrastructure, affecting the lives of hundreds of thousands of people over a prolonged period of weeks. These events clearly reveal- the vulnerability of the critical infrastructure to flooding and the dependence of society on critical infrastructure. In order to reduce the flood vulnerability and increase the resilience of the critical infrastructure networks in the future, detailed evidence-based analysis and assessment is essential. To this end a case study has been carried out on Cork City which analyses this vulnerability as it was in 2009, and as it is currently, and identifies adaptation options to reduce the future vulnerability of critical infrastructure to flooding and to build a more resilient society. This paper describes the storyline approach and CIrcle tool and their application to Cork City which focused on the analysis of the flood vulnerability of critical infrastructure and the impacts of failure of the infrastructure for other critical functions and on society.

  11. Assessing vulnerability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hellmuth, M.; Kabat, P.

    2003-01-01

    It is in the shantytowns and rural villages of the Third World that floods and droughts strike hardest and deepest. Vulnerability to the vagaries of climate depends not only on location, but, crucially, on the capacity of the victims to cope with the impacts of extreme weather. So, where are the

  12. Assessing vulnerability

    OpenAIRE

    Hellmuth, M.; Kabat, P

    2003-01-01

    It is in the shantytowns and rural villages of the Third World that floods and droughts strike hardest and deepest. Vulnerability to the vagaries of climate depends not only on location, but, crucially, on the capacity of the victims to cope with the impacts of extreme weather. So, where are the people most at risk from the effects of climate variability and climate change? It is not an easy question to answer. How can we compare the hazards facing the inhabitants of a small island as the sea...

  13. Vulnerability of wastewater infrastructure of coastal cities to sea level ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sea-level rise is one of the consequences of global warming that has the potential to affect the infrastructure of coastal urban areas. In this context, it is important to perform vulnerability assessments in order to understand how this infrastruc- ture may be at risk, and, if necessary, adapt and maintain functionality of ...

  14. Vulnerability of critical infrastructures : identifying critical nodes.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cox, Roger Gary; Robinson, David Gerald

    2004-06-01

    The objective of this research was the development of tools and techniques for the identification of critical nodes within critical infrastructures. These are nodes that, if disrupted through natural events or terrorist action, would cause the most widespread, immediate damage. This research focuses on one particular element of the national infrastructure: the bulk power system. Through the identification of critical elements and the quantification of the consequences of their failure, site-specific vulnerability analyses can be focused at those locations where additional security measures could be effectively implemented. In particular, with appropriate sizing and placement within the grid, distributed generation in the form of regional power parks may reduce or even prevent the impact of widespread network power outages. Even without additional security measures, increased awareness of sensitive power grid locations can provide a basis for more effective national, state and local emergency planning. A number of methods for identifying critical nodes were investigated: small-world (or network theory), polyhedral dynamics, and an artificial intelligence-based search method - particle swarm optimization. PSO was found to be the only viable approach and was applied to a variety of industry accepted test networks to validate the ability of the approach to identify sets of critical nodes. The approach was coded in a software package called Buzzard and integrated with a traditional power flow code. A number of industry accepted test networks were employed to validate the approach. The techniques (and software) are not unique to power grid network, but could be applied to a variety of complex, interacting infrastructures.

  15. Cascade vulnerability for risk analysis of water infrastructure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sitzenfrei, R; Mair, M; Möderl, M; Rauch, W

    2011-01-01

    One of the major tasks in urban water management is failure-free operation for at least most of the time. Accordingly, the reliability of the network systems in urban water management has a crucial role. The failure of a component in these systems impacts potable water distribution and urban drainage. Therefore, water distribution and urban drainage systems are categorized as critical infrastructure. Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is likely to experience harm induced by perturbation or stress. However, for risk assessment, we usually assume that events and failures are singular and independent, i.e. several simultaneous events and cascading events are unconsidered. Although failures can be causally linked, a simultaneous consideration in risk analysis is hardly considered. To close this gap, this work introduces the term cascade vulnerability for water infrastructure. Cascade vulnerability accounts for cascading and simultaneous events. Following this definition, cascade risk maps are a merger of hazard and cascade vulnerability maps. In this work cascade vulnerability maps for water distribution systems and urban drainage systems based on the 'Achilles-Approach' are introduced and discussed. It is shown, that neglecting cascading effects results in significant underestimation of risk scenarios.

  16. Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Site-Vicinity Infrastructure for Supporting the Accident Management of a Nuclear Power Plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. J. Katona

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Nuclear power plants shall be designed to resist the effects of large earthquakes. The design basis earthquake affects large area around the plant site and can cause serious consequences that will affect the logistical support of the emergency actions at the plant, influence the psychological condition of the plant personnel, and determine the workload of the country’s disaster management personnel. In this paper the main qualitative findings of a study are presented that have been performed for the case of a hypothetical 10−4/a probability design basis earthquake for the Paks Nuclear Power Plant, Hungary. The study covers the qualitative assessment of the postearthquake conditions at the settlements around the plant site including quantitative evaluation of the condition of dwellings. The main goal of the recent phase of the study was to identify public utility vulnerabilities that define the outside support conditions of the nuclear power plant accident management. The results of the study can be used for the planning of logistical support of the plant accident management staff. The study also contributes to better understanding of the working conditions of the disaster management services in the region around the nuclear power plant.

  17. Complexity and Vulnerability Analysis of Critical Infrastructures: A Methodological Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongliang Deng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Vulnerability analysis of network models has been widely adopted to explore the potential impacts of random disturbances, deliberate attacks, and natural disasters. However, almost all these models are based on a fixed topological structure, in which the physical properties of infrastructure components and their interrelationships are not well captured. In this paper, a new research framework is put forward to quantitatively explore and assess the complexity and vulnerability of critical infrastructure systems. Then, a case study is presented to prove the feasibility and validity of the proposed framework. After constructing metro physical network (MPN, Pajek is employed to analyze its corresponding topological properties, including degree, betweenness, average path length, network diameter, and clustering coefficient. With a comprehensive understanding of the complexity of MPN, it would be beneficial for metro system to restrain original near-miss or accidents and support decision-making in emergency situations. Moreover, through the analysis of two simulation protocols for system component failure, it is found that the MPN turned to be vulnerable under the condition that the high-degree nodes or high-betweenness edges are attacked. These findings will be conductive to offer recommendations and proposals for robust design, risk-based decision-making, and prioritization of risk reduction investment.

  18. Using field data and HSR imagery to downscale vulnerability assessment of buildings and local infrastructure facing hazards from floods and hyperconcentrated flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ettinger, Susanne; Manrique Llerena, Nélida Victoria; Thouret, Jean-Claude

    2014-05-01

    The focus of this study is the analysis of post-flood conditions along the Venezuela channel in the large city of Arequipa, south Peru, in order to identify the parameters determining vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure. Two tributaries draining a c. 11.9 km2 large catchment feed the Venezuela channel. Before joining the main Rio Chili valley to the West, it crosses the city from NE to SW. Over a total length of 5.2 km, channel depth ranges from 1.3 to 6.3 m and c. 40% of the channel sections do not exceed 5 m in width. On 8 February 2013, 123 mm of rainfall within 3 hours (monthly mean: 29.3 mm) triggered a flashflood inundating at least 0.4 km2 of urban settlements along the channel. The flood damaged 14 buildings, 23 among 53 bridges, and led to the partial collapse of main road sections paralyzing central parts of the city for at least one week. This research relies on (1) analyzing post-flood conditions and assessing damage types caused by the 8 February 2013 flood; (2) mapping of the channel characteristics (slope, wetted section, sinuosity, type of river banks, bed roughness, etc.) and buildings, bridges, and contention walls potentially exposed to inundation. Data collection and analysis have been based on high spatial resolution (HSR) images (SPOT5 2007, Google Earth Pro and BINGMAP 2012, PLEIADES 2012-2013). Field measurements (GPS, laser and geomorphologic mapping) were used to ground truth channel width, depth, as well as building outlines, contention walls and bridge characteristics (construction material, opening size, etc.). An inventory of 25 city blocks (1500 to 20000 m2; 6 to 157 houses per block) has been created in a GIS database in order to estimate their physical vulnerability. As many as 717 buildings have been surveyed along the affected drainage and classified according to four building types based on their structural characteristics. Output vulnerability maps show that the varying channel characteristics, i.e. bank type, bed

  19. Assessing Urban Rail Transit Systems Vulnerability: Metrics vs. Interdiction Models

    OpenAIRE

    Starita, Stefano; Esposito Amideo, Annunziata; Scaparra, Maria Paola

    2018-01-01

    Urban rail transit systems are highly vulnerable to a variety of disruptions, including accidental failures, natural disasters and terrorist attacks. Due to the crucial role that railway infrastructures play in economic development, productivity and social well-being of communities, evaluating their vulnerability and identifying their most critical components is of paramount importance. Two main approaches can be deployed to assess transport infrastructure vulnerabilities: vulnerability metri...

  20. Vulnerability of wastewater infrastructure of coastal cities to sea level ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Vulnerability of wastewater infrastructure of coastal cities to sea level rise: A South African case study. Elena Friedrich* and Dale Kretzinger. CRECHE Centre for Research in Environmental, Coastal and Hydrological Engineering, School of Engineering,. Civil Engineering Programme, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Howard ...

  1. Vulnerability of wastewater infrastructure of coastal cities to sea level ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigates the vulnerability of the wastewater collection and disposal infrastructure (i.e. pipelines and manholes, pumping stations and wastewater treatment plants) to sea-level rise in eThekwini Municipality, South Africa. By using geographical information systems (GIS) and a multi-criteria analysis considering ...

  2. The regional impacts of climate change: an assessment of vulnerability

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zinyowera, Marufu C; Moss, Richard H; Watson, R. T

    1998-01-01

    .... The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health...

  3. Making Culverts Great Again: Modeling Road Culvert Vulnerability to Assist Prioritization of Local Infrastructure Investment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gold, D.; Walter, M. T.; Watkins, L.; Kaufman, Z.; Meyer, A.; Mahaney, M.

    2016-12-01

    The concurrent threats posed by climate change and aging infrastructure have become of increasing concern in recent years. In the Northeastern US, storms such as Hurricane Irene and Super Storm Sandy have highlighted the vulnerability of infrastructure to extreme weather events, which are projected to become more frequent under future climate change scenarios. Road culverts are one type of infrastructure that is particularly vulnerable to such threats. Culverts allow roads to safely traverse small streams or drainage ditches, and their proper design is critical to ensuring a safe and reliable transportation network. Much of the responsibility for designing and maintaining road culverts lies at the local level, but many local governments lack the resources to quantify the vulnerability of their culverts to major storms. This study contributes a model designed to assist local governments in rapidly assessing the vulnerability of large numbers of culverts and identifies common characteristics of vulnerable culverts. Model inputs include culvert geometry and location data collected by trained local field teams. The model uses custom tools created in ArcGIS and Python to determine the maximum return period storm that each culvert can safely convey under current and projected future rainfall regimes. As a demonstration, over 1000 culverts in New York State were modeled. It was found that a significant percentage of modeled culverts failed to convey the current 5 year return period storm event (deemed a failure) and this percentage increased under projected future rainfall conditions. The model results were analyzed to determine correlations between culvert characteristics and failure. Characteristics investigated included watershed size, road type (state, county or local), affluence of the surrounding area and suitability for aquatic organism passage. Results from this study can be used by local governments to quantify and characterize the vulnerability of current

  4. Low carbon technology performance vs infrastructure vulnerability: analysis through the local and global properties space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, David A; Purnell, Phil; Roelich, Katy; Busch, Jonathan; Steinberger, Julia K

    2014-11-04

    Renewable energy technologies, necessary for low-carbon infrastructure networks, are being adopted to help reduce fossil fuel dependence and meet carbon mitigation targets. The evolution of these technologies has progressed based on the enhancement of technology-specific performance criteria, without explicitly considering the wider system (global) impacts. This paper presents a methodology for simultaneously assessing local (technology) and global (infrastructure) performance, allowing key technological interventions to be evaluated with respect to their effect on the vulnerability of wider infrastructure systems. We use exposure of low carbon infrastructure to critical material supply disruption (criticality) to demonstrate the methodology. A series of local performance changes are analyzed; and by extension of this approach, a method for assessing the combined criticality of multiple materials for one specific technology is proposed. Via a case study of wind turbines at both the material (magnets) and technology (turbine generators) levels, we demonstrate that analysis of a given intervention at different levels can lead to differing conclusions regarding the effect on vulnerability. Infrastructure design decisions should take a systemic approach; without these multilevel considerations, strategic goals aimed to help meet low-carbon targets, that is, through long-term infrastructure transitions, could be significantly jeopardized.

  5. Vulnerability assessment of vegetation types

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Jonas, Z

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available on the potential loss of natural habitat due to habitat transformation and degradation processes, which will threaten the biodiversity of the area. In this assessment, two classes of vulnerability are referred to as land use vulnerability and degradation...

  6. Digital divide, biometeorological data infrastructures and human vulnerability definition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fdez-Arroyabe, Pablo; Lecha Estela, Luis; Schimt, Falko

    2017-06-01

    The design and implementation of any climate-related health service, nowadays, imply avoiding the digital divide as it means having access and being able to use complex technological devices, massive meteorological data, user's geographic location and biophysical information. This article presents the co-creation, in detail, of a biometeorological data infrastructure, which is a complex platform formed by multiple components: a mainframe, a biometeorological model called Pronbiomet, a relational database management system, data procedures, communication protocols, different software packages, users, datasets and a mobile application. The system produces four daily world maps of the partial density of the atmospheric oxygen and collects user feedback on their health condition. The infrastructure is shown to be a useful tool to delineate individual vulnerability to meteorological changes as one key factor in the definition of any biometeorological risk. This technological approach to study weather-related health impacts is the initial seed for the definition of biometeorological profiles of persons, and for the future development of customized climate services for users in the near future.

  7. Managing a network vulnerability assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R; Blackley, John A

    2003-01-01

    Managing a Network Vulnerability Assessment provides a formal framework for finding and eliminating network security threats, ensuring that no vulnerabilities are overlooked. This thorough overview focuses on the steps necessary to successfully manage an assessment, including the development of a scope statement, the understanding and proper use of assessment methodology, the creation of an expert assessment team, and the production of a valuable response report. The book also details what commercial, freeware, and shareware tools are available, how they work, and how to use them.

  8. Importance of biometrics to addressing vulnerabilities of the U.S. infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arndt, Craig M.; Hall, Nathaniel A.

    2004-08-01

    Human identification technologies are important threat countermeasures in minimizing select infrastructure vulnerabilities. Properly targeted countermeasures should be selected and integrated into an overall security solution based on disciplined analysis and modeling. Available data on infrastructure value, threat intelligence, and system vulnerabilities are carefully organized, analyzed and modeled. Prior to design and deployment of an effective countermeasure; the proper role and appropriateness of technology in addressing the overall set of vulnerabilities is established. Deployment of biometrics systems, as with other countermeasures, introduces potentially heightened vulnerabilities into the system. Heightened vulnerabilities may arise from both the newly introduced system complexities and an unfocused understanding of the set of vulnerabilities impacted by the new countermeasure. The countermeasure's own inherent vulnerabilities and those introduced by the system's integration with the existing system are analyzed and modeled to determine the overall vulnerability impact. The United States infrastructure is composed of government and private assets. The infrastructure is valued by their potential impact on several components: human physical safety, physical/information replacement/repair cost, potential contribution to future loss (criticality in weapons production), direct productivity output, national macro-economic output/productivity, and information integrity. These components must be considered in determining the overall impact of an infrastructure security breach. Cost/benefit analysis is then incorporated in the security technology deployment decision process. Overall security risks based on system vulnerabilities and threat intelligence determines areas of potential benefit. Biometric countermeasures are often considered when additional security at intended points of entry would minimize vulnerabilities.

  9. Assessing Terrorist Motivations for Attacking Critical Infrastructure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ackerman, G; Abhayaratne, P; Bale, J; Bhattacharjee, A; Blair, C; Hansell, L; Jayne, A; Kosal, M; Lucas, S; Moran, K; Seroki, L; Vadlamudi, S

    2006-12-04

    Certain types of infrastructure--critical infrastructure (CI)--play vital roles in underpinning our economy, security and way of life. These complex and often interconnected systems have become so ubiquitous and essential to day-to-day life that they are easily taken for granted. Often it is only when the important services provided by such infrastructure are interrupted--when we lose easy access to electricity, health care, telecommunications, transportation or water, for example--that we are conscious of our great dependence on these networks and of the vulnerabilities that stem from such dependence. Unfortunately, it must be assumed that many terrorists are all too aware that CI facilities pose high-value targets that, if successfully attacked, have the potential to dramatically disrupt the normal rhythm of society, cause public fear and intimidation, and generate significant publicity. Indeed, revelations emerging at the time of this writing about Al Qaida's efforts to prepare for possible attacks on major financial facilities in New York, New Jersey, and the District of Columbia remind us just how real and immediate such threats to CI may be. Simply being aware that our nation's critical infrastructure presents terrorists with a plethora of targets, however, does little to mitigate the dangers of CI attacks. In order to prevent and preempt such terrorist acts, better understanding of the threats and vulnerabilities relating to critical infrastructure is required. The Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) presents this document as both a contribution to the understanding of such threats and an initial effort at ''operationalizing'' its findings for use by analysts who work on issues of critical infrastructure protection. Specifically, this study focuses on a subsidiary aspect of CI threat assessment that has thus far remained largely unaddressed by contemporary terrorism research: the motivations and related factors that

  10. Vulnerability Identification Errors in Security Risk Assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Taubenberger, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    At present, companies rely on information technology systems to achieve their business objectives, making them vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. Information security risk assessments help organisations to identify their risks and vulnerabilities. An accurate identification of risks and vulnerabilities is a challenge, because the input data is uncertain. So-called ’vulnerability identification errors‘ can occur if false positive vulnerabilities are identified, or if vulnerabilities remain u...

  11. Vulnerability Assessment for Various Types of Cloud Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anatoly Valerievich Tsaregorodtsev

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Today organizations increasingly consider cloud computing as an alternative way of using information technology. At the same time, the use of different vulnerabilities of infrastructure components, network services and applications remains are the major threat to the cloud. The article proposes a methodology for vulnerability assessment for any type of cloud structures, which will allow to determine the coefficient of counter to possible attacks and to correlate the amount of damage to the total cost of ownership of organization IT-infrastructure.

  12. Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

  13. Assessing Socioeconomic Impacts of Cascading Infrastructure Disruptions in a Dynamic Human-Infrastructure Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-07-01

    for Disaster Preparedness.” Critical Care Medicine 33 (1): S96–S101. Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada. August 2006. “Incident...to disasters (e.g., seeking alternatives) may further transfer and ag- gravate the burden on surviving infrastructures, which may facilitate...evaluate a city’s vulnerability to disruptions and to assess the impact of a disaster . U.S. Army doctrine requires that commanders under- stand

  14. Assessing flash flood vulnerability using a multi-vulnerability approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karagiorgos Konstantinos

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of flood risk assessment, while the understanding of hazard and exposure has significantly improved over the last years, knowledge on vulnerability remains one of the challenges. Current approaches in vulnerability research are characterised by a division between social scientists and natural scientists. In order to close this gap, we present an approach that combines information on physical and social vulnerability in order to merge information on the susceptibility of elements at risk and society. With respect to physical vulnerability, the study is based on local-scale vulnerability models using nonlinear regression approaches. Modified Weibull distributions were fit to the data in order to represent the relationship between process magnitude and degree of loss. With respect to social vulnerability we conducted a door-to-door survey which resulted in particular insights on flood risk awareness and resilience strategies of exposed communities. In general, both physical and social vulnerability were low in comparison with other European studies, which may result from (a specific building regulations in the four Mediterranean test sites as well as general design principles leading to low structural susceptibility of elements at risk, and (b relatively low social vulnerability of citizens exposed. As a result it is shown that a combination of different perspectives of vulnerability will lead to a better understanding of exposure and capacities in flood risk management.

  15. Vulnerability analysis of the wireless infrastructures to intentional electromagnetic interference

    OpenAIRE

    van de Beek, G.S.

    2016-01-01

    Contemporary society is greatly dependent upon a set of critical infrastructures (CIs) providing security and quality of life. Electronic systems control the safety-critical functioning of most CIs, and these electronic systems are susceptible to electromagnetic interference (EMI). A threat to the infrastructures is that adversaries, such as terrorists, could disrupt the functioning by using electromagnetic (EM) sources. This is defined as intentional electromagnetic interference (IEMI). The ...

  16. Security simulation for vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennessey, Brian; Norman, Bradley; Wesson, Robert B.

    2006-05-01

    This paper discusses simulation technologies developed to "stimulate" an operational command and control security system. The paper discusses simulation techniques used to create a virtual model of a facility in which to conduct vulnerability assessment exercises, performance benchmarking, CONOPS development and operator training. The paper discusses the specific techniques used for creating a 3d virtual environment and simulating streaming IP surveillance cameras and motion detection sensors. In addition the paper discusses advanced scenario creation techniques and the modeling of scenario entities, including vehicles, aircraft and personnel. The paper draws parallels with lessons learned in using Air Traffic Control simulators for operator training, incident recreation, procedure development and pre acquisition planning and testing.

  17. A screening methodology for the identification and ranking of infrastructure vulnerabilities due to terrorism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apostolakis, George E; Lemon, Douglas M

    2005-04-01

    The extreme importance of critical infrastructures to modern society is widely recognized. These infrastructures are complex and interdependent. Protecting the critical infrastructures from terrorism presents an enormous challenge. Recognizing that society cannot afford the costs associated with absolute protection, it is necessary to identify and prioritize the vulnerabilities in these infrastructures. This article presents a methodology for the identification and prioritization of vulnerabilities in infrastructures. We model the infrastructures as interconnected digraphs and employ graph theory to identify the candidate vulnerable scenarios. These scenarios are screened for the susceptibility of their elements to a terrorist attack, and a prioritized list of vulnerabilities is produced. The prioritization methodology is based on multiattribute utility theory. The impact of losing infrastructure services is evaluated using a value tree that reflects the perceptions and values of the decisionmaker and the relevant stakeholders. These results, which are conditional on a specified threat, are provided to the decisionmaker for use in risk management. The methodology is illustrated through the presentation of a portion of the analysis conducted on the campus of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

  18. Vulnerability analysis of the wireless infrastructures to intentional electromagnetic interference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Beek, G.S.

    2016-01-01

    Contemporary society is greatly dependent upon a set of critical infrastructures (CIs) providing security and quality of life. Electronic systems control the safety-critical functioning of most CIs, and these electronic systems are susceptible to electromagnetic interference (EMI). A threat to the

  19. Vulnerability analysis of the wireless infrastructure to intentional electromagnetic interference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Beek, G.S.

    2016-01-01

    Contemporary society is greatly dependent upon a set of critical infrastructures (CIs) providing security and quality of life. Electronic systems control the safety-critical functioning of most CIs, and these electronic systems are susceptible to electromagnetic interference (EMI). A threat to the

  20. Critical infrastructure systems of systems assessment methodology.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sholander, Peter E.; Darby, John L.; Phelan, James M.; Smith, Bryan; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Walter, Andrew; Varnado, G. Bruce; Depoy, Jennifer Mae

    2006-10-01

    Assessing the risk of malevolent attacks against large-scale critical infrastructures requires modifications to existing methodologies that separately consider physical security and cyber security. This research has developed a risk assessment methodology that explicitly accounts for both physical and cyber security, while preserving the traditional security paradigm of detect, delay, and respond. This methodology also accounts for the condition that a facility may be able to recover from or mitigate the impact of a successful attack before serious consequences occur. The methodology uses evidence-based techniques (which are a generalization of probability theory) to evaluate the security posture of the cyber protection systems. Cyber threats are compared against cyber security posture using a category-based approach nested within a path-based analysis to determine the most vulnerable cyber attack path. The methodology summarizes the impact of a blended cyber/physical adversary attack in a conditional risk estimate where the consequence term is scaled by a ''willingness to pay'' avoidance approach.

  1. Assessing the Security Vulnerabilities of Correctional Facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrison, G.S.; Spencer, D.S.

    1998-10-27

    The National Institute of Justice has tasked their Satellite Facility at Sandia National Laboratories and their Southeast Regional Technology Center in Charleston, South Carolina to devise new procedures and tools for helping correctional facilities to assess their security vulnerabilities. Thus, a team is visiting selected correctional facilities and performing vulnerability assessments. A vulnerability assessment helps to identi~ the easiest paths for inmate escape, for introduction of contraband such as drugs or weapons, for unexpected intrusion fi-om outside of the facility, and for the perpetration of violent acts on other inmates and correctional employees, In addition, the vulnerability assessment helps to quantify the security risks for the facility. From these initial assessments will come better procedures for performing vulnerability assessments in general at other correctional facilities, as well as the development of tools to assist with the performance of such vulnerability assessments.

  2. Vulnerability assessments as a political creation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pronk, Maartje; Maat, Harro; Crane, Todd A.

    2017-01-01

    Vulnerability assessments are a cornerstone of contemporary disaster research. This paper shows how research procedures and the presentation of results of vulnerability assessments are politically filtered. Using data from a study of tsunami risk assessment in Portugal, the paper demonstrates

  3. Assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidsvig, Unni Marie K.; Kristensen, Krister; Vidar Vangelsten, Bjørn

    2017-03-01

    This paper proposes a model for assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures, with a focus on the indirect losses and loss of stability for the population relying on the infrastructure. The model prescribes a three-level analysis with increasing level of detail, moving from qualitative to quantitative analysis. The focus is on a methodology for semi-quantitative analyses to be performed at the second level. The purpose of this type of analysis is to perform a screening of the scenarios of natural hazards threatening the infrastructures, identifying the most critical scenarios and investigating the need for further analyses (third level). The proposed semi-quantitative methodology considers the frequency of the natural hazard, different aspects of vulnerability, including the physical vulnerability of the infrastructure itself, and the societal dependency on the infrastructure. An indicator-based approach is applied, ranking the indicators on a relative scale according to pre-defined ranking criteria. The proposed indicators, which characterise conditions that influence the probability of an infrastructure malfunctioning caused by a natural event, are defined as (1) robustness and buffer capacity, (2) level of protection, (3) quality/level of maintenance and renewal, (4) adaptability and quality of operational procedures and (5) transparency/complexity/degree of coupling. Further indicators describe conditions influencing the socio-economic consequences of the infrastructure malfunctioning, such as (1) redundancy and/or substitution, (2) cascading effects and dependencies, (3) preparedness and (4) early warning, emergency response and measures. The aggregated risk estimate is a combination of the semi-quantitative vulnerability indicators, as well as quantitative estimates of the frequency of the natural hazard, the potential duration of the infrastructure malfunctioning (e.g. depending on the required restoration effort) and the number of users of

  4. Chemical facility vulnerability assessment project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeger, Calvin D

    2003-11-14

    Sandia National Laboratories, under the direction of the Office of Science and Technology, National Institute of Justice, conducted the chemical facility vulnerability assessment (CFVA) project. The primary objective of this project was to develop, test and validate a vulnerability assessment methodology (VAM) for determining the security of chemical facilities against terrorist or criminal attacks (VAM-CF). The project also included a report to the Department of Justice for Congress that in addition to describing the VAM-CF also addressed general observations related to security practices, threats and risks at chemical facilities and chemical transport. In the development of the VAM-CF Sandia leveraged the experience gained from the use and development of VAs in other areas and the input from the chemical industry and Federal agencies. The VAM-CF is a systematic, risk-based approach where risk is a function of the severity of consequences of an undesired event, the attack potential, and the likelihood of adversary success in causing the undesired event. For the purpose of the VAM-CF analyses Risk is a function of S, L(A), and L(AS), where S is the severity of consequence of an event, L(A) is the attack potential and L(AS) likelihood of adversary success in causing a catastrophic event. The VAM-CF consists of 13 basic steps. It involves an initial screening step, which helps to identify and prioritize facilities for further analysis. This step is similar to the prioritization approach developed by the American Chemistry Council (ACC). Other steps help to determine the components of the risk equation and ultimately the risk. The VAM-CF process involves identifying the hazardous chemicals and processes at a chemical facility. It helps chemical facilities to focus their attention on the most critical areas. The VAM-CF is not a quantitative analysis but, rather, compares relative security risks. If the risks are deemed too high, recommendations are developed for

  5. A Security Assessment Methodology for Critical Infrastructures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Caselli, M.; Kargl, Frank; Hämmerli, Bernhard M.; Lopez, Javier

    2014-01-01

    Interest in security assessment and penetration testing techniques has steadily increased. Likewise, security of industrial control systems (ICS) has become more and more important. Very few methodologies directly target ICS and none of them generalizes the concept of "critical infrastructures

  6. Vulnerability of electricity transmission infrastructure to natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komendantova, Nadejda

    2016-04-01

    Electricity transmission system is a very complex system, which consists of several elements, such as overhead lines, substations and transformers, covers wide areas, is interconnected with several networks with numerous inter-dependencies. This highly integrated system is exposed to several hazards, leading to interruption of power supply. Natural hazards, such as an increased frequency of extreme weather events, including storms, icing, wet snow deposits, lighting, floods, avalanches, rock falls and landslides or changing air temperature have effects on transmission and lead to destruction of this infrastructure, which is also critical for society as it guarantees functioning of vital for society services. The reliability of critical electricity transmission infrastructure depends on its ability to ensure normal operation, to limit number of incidents and to avoid major incidents and to limit consequences of major incidents. The concept of reliability is closely connected with the concept of resilience, which is understood, in general, as the ability of a system to react and recover from anticipated disturbances and events. In regards to electricity transmission resilience is the ability of the power system to adapt, self-organize and recover or achieve the level even higher than those before the shock. This paper reviews three major natural hazards disasters, which resulted in significant blackouts in Europe. The first one is the 2003 blackout in Italy, which was caused by flash-over from trees. The second one is the 2003 blackout in Sweden, which was caused by rainstorms. The third one is the 2005 blackout in Germany, which was caused by wet snow. The inter-comparative analysis of these events allowed us to develop recommendations on electricity transmission network resilience.

  7. Chemical and radiological vulnerability assessment in urban areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stojanović Božidar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Cities and towns are faced with various types of threat from the extraordinary events involving chemical and radiological materials as exemplified by major chemical accidents, radiological incidents, fires, explosions, traffic accidents, terrorist attacks, etc. On the other hand, many sensitive or vulnerable assets exist within cities, such as: settlements, infrastructures, hospitals, schools, churches, businesses, government, and others. Besides emergency planning, the land use planning also represents an important tool for prevention or reduction of damages on people and other assets due to unwanted events. This paper considers development of method for inclusion vulnerability assessment in land use planning with objective to assess and limit the consequences in cities of likely accidents involving hazardous materials. We made preliminary assessment of criticality and vulnerability of the assets within Belgrade city area in respect to chemical sites and transportation roads that can be exposed to chemical accidents, or terrorist attacks.

  8. Network Vulnerability and Risk Assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Alward, Randy G; Carley, Kathleen M; Madsen, Fredrik; Taylor, Vincent K; Vandenberghe, Grant

    2006-01-01

    To help understand a network and its ability to continue operating when under attack, the break out group discussed issues that need to be considered when presenting network vulnerability information...

  9. Critical Infrastructure Vulnerability to Spatially Localized Failures with Applications to Chinese Railway System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Min; Tian, Hui; Wang, Zhenghua; Hong, Liu; Mao, Zijun

    2017-01-17

    This article studies a general type of initiating events in critical infrastructures, called spatially localized failures (SLFs), which are defined as the failure of a set of infrastructure components distributed in a spatially localized area due to damage sustained, while other components outside the area do not directly fail. These failures can be regarded as a special type of intentional attack, such as bomb or explosive assault, or a generalized modeling of the impact of localized natural hazards on large-scale systems. This article introduces three SLFs models: node centered SLFs, district-based SLFs, and circle-shaped SLFs, and proposes a SLFs-induced vulnerability analysis method from three aspects: identification of critical locations, comparisons of infrastructure vulnerability to random failures, topologically localized failures and SLFs, and quantification of infrastructure information value. The proposed SLFs-induced vulnerability analysis method is finally applied to the Chinese railway system and can be also easily adapted to analyze other critical infrastructures for valuable protection suggestions. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Concepts to Analyze the Vulnerability of Critical Infrastructures - Taking into account Cybernetics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric Petit

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Critical Infrastructures (CIs are complex systems. For their operations, these infrastructures are increasingly using Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA systems. Management practices are therefore highly dependent on the cyber tools, but also on the data needed to make these tools work. Therefore, CIs are greatly vulnerable to degradation of data. In this context, this paper aims at presenting the fundamentals of a method for analyzing the vulnerabilities of CIs towards the use of cyber data. By characterizing cyber vulnerability of CIs, it will be possible to improve the resilience of these networks and to foster a proactive approach to risk management not only by considering cybernetics from a cyber-attack point of view but also by considering the consequences of the use of corrupted data.

  11. A Framework for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability

    OpenAIRE

    Murray Petrie; Richard Hemming

    2000-01-01

    Fiscal vulnerability describes a situation where a government is exposed to the possibility of failure to meet its aggregate fiscal policy objectives. The suggested framework for assessing vulnerability highlights four macro-fiscal aspects of vulnerability: incorrect specification of the initial fiscal position; sensitivity of short-term fiscal outcomes to risk; threats to longer-term fiscal sustainability; and structural or institutional weaknesses affecting the design and implementation of ...

  12. Collision and displacement vulnerability among marine birds of the California Current System associated with offshore wind energy infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Josh; Kelsey, Emily C.; Felis, Jonathan J.; Pereksta, David M.

    2016-10-27

    With growing climate change concerns and energy constraints, there is an increasing need for renewable energy sources within the United States and globally. Looking forward, offshore wind-energy infrastructure (OWEI) has the potential to produce a significant proportion of the power needed to reach our Nation’s renewable energy goal. Offshore wind-energy sites can capitalize open areas within Federal waters that have persistent, high winds with large energy production potential. Although there are few locations in the California Current System (CCS) where it would be acceptable to build pile-mounted wind turbines in waters less than 50 m deep, the development of technology able to support deep-water OWEI (>200 m depth) could enable wind-energy production in the CCS. As with all human-use of the marine environment, understanding the potential impacts of wind-energy infrastructure on the marine ecosystem is an integral part of offshore wind-energy research and planning. Herein, we present a comprehensive database to quantify marine bird vulnerability to potential OWEI in the CCS (see https://doi.org/10.5066/F79C6VJ0). These data were used to quantify marine bird vulnerabilities at the population level. For 81 marine bird species present in the CCS, we created three vulnerability indices: Population Vulnerability, Collision Vulnerability, and Displacement Vulnerability. Population Vulnerability was used as a scaling factor to generate two comprehensive indicies: Population Collision Vulnerability (PCV) and Population Displacement Vulnerability (PDV). Within the CCS, pelicans, terns (Forster’s [Sterna forsteri], Caspian [Hydroprogne caspia], Elegant [Thalasseus elegans], and Least Tern [Sternula antillarum]), gulls (Western [Larus occidentalis] and Bonaparte’s Gull [Chroicocephalus philadelphia]), South Polar Skua (Stercorarius maccormicki), and Brandt’s Cormorant (Phalacrocorax penicillatus) had the greatest PCV scores. Brown Pelican (Pelicanus occidentalis

  13. Assessing vulnerability of urban African communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson Nyed, Patrik; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie; Herslund, Lise Byskov

    2014-01-01

    East African cities are in the process of assessing their vulnerabilities to climate change, but face difficulties in capturing the complexity of the various facets of vulnerability. This holistic approach, captures four different dimensions of vulnerability to flooding - Assets, Institutions......, Attitudes and the Physical environment, with Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, as a case city. The methodology is actively involving the expertise of the stakeholders, and uses GIS to analyze and compile the data. The final output is presented as a comprehensible map, delineating the varying vulnerability...

  14. Climate change vulnerability assessment in Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binita KC; J. Marshall Shepherd; Cassandra Johnson Gaither

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is occurring in the Southeastern United States, and one manifestation is changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events. A vulnerability assessment is performed in the state of Georgia (United States) at the county level from 1975 to 2012 in decadal increments. Climate change vulnerability is typically measured as a function of exposure to physical...

  15. European risk assessment methodology for critical infrastructures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaver, M.H.A.; Luiijf, H.A.M.; Nieuwenhuijs, A.H.; Cavenne, F.; Ulisse, A.; Bridegeman, G.

    2008-01-01

    Most risk assessment methodologies aim at the risk at the level of an individual organization or company. The European Union commissioned a study to define the elements for a uniform and scalable risk assessment methodology which takes into account critical infrastructure dependencies across

  16. A synthesized biophysical and social vulnerability assessment for Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yung-Jaan

    2017-11-01

    Taiwan, located in the Western Pacific, is a country that is one of the most vulnerable to disasters that are associated with the changing climate; it is located within the Ring of Fire, which is the most geologically active region in the world. The environmental and geological conditions in Taiwan are sensitive and vulnerable to such disasters. Owing to increasing urbanization in Taiwan, floods and climate-related disasters have taken an increasing toll on human lives. As global warming accelerates the rising of sea levels and increasing of the frequency of extreme weather events, disasters will continue to affect socioeconomic development and human conditions. Under such circumstances, researchers and policymakers alike must recognize the importance of providing useful knowledge concerning vulnerability, disaster recovery and resilience. Strategies for reducing vulnerability and climate-related disaster risks and for increasing resilience involve preparedness, mitigation and adaptation. In the last two decades, extreme climate events have caused severe flash floods, debris flows, landslides, and other disasters and have had negative effects of many sectors, including agriculture, infrastructure and health. Since climate change is expected to have a continued impact on socio-economic development, this work develops a vulnerability assessment framework that integrates both biophysical and social vulnerability and supports synthesized vulnerability analyses to identify vulnerable areas in Taiwan. Owing to its geographical, geological and climatic features, Taiwan is susceptible to earthquakes, typhoons, droughts and various induced disasters. Therefore, Taiwan has the urgent task of establishing a framework for assessing vulnerability as a planning and policy tool that can be used to identify not only the regions that require special attention but also hotspots in which efforts should be made to reduce vulnerability and the risk of climate-related disaster. To

  17. Urban Vulnerability Assessment Using AHP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Rezaei

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Physical expansion of urban areas and cities is of great importance nowadays. Irreparable damages will thus be caused by lack of proper planning against natural disasters. Crisis management will therefore guide through prevention, preparedness, disaster relief, and recovery by planning an appropriate program. Methodology. Principal processes of crisis management against earthquake in Iran were evaluated and discussed. Multicriteria earthquake crisis management was then proposed by means of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. Vulnerability of 19 urban areas in Qazvin city was studied and analyzed as a case study. Three main criteria were considered as “physical dimensions and physical vulnerability texture,” “the amount of urban texture responsibility to aid after crisis,” and “possibility of city reversibility after the crisis.” These criteria were divided into 20 subcriteria which were prioritized by a questionnaire survey. Findings. “High population density,” “urban texture of old and repairable buildings,” “lack of relief and medical services,” “a few organic texture areas,” “sidewalks with less than 6 meters width in the region,” and “lack of open spaces in the area” were concluded to be the most important reasons causing high vulnerability of urban texture in Qazvin city.

  18. Groundwater Pollution and Vulnerability Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurwadkar, Sudarshan

    2017-10-01

    Groundwater is a critical resource that serve as a source of drinking water to large human population and, provide long-term water for irrigation purposes. In recent years; however, this precious resource being increasingly threatened, due to natural and anthropogenic activities. A variety of contaminants of emerging concern such as pharmaceuticals and personal care products, perfluorinated compounds, endocrine disruptors, and biological agents detected in the groundwater sources of both developing and developed nations. In this review paper, various studies have been included that documented instances of groundwater pollution and vulnerability to emerging contaminants of concern, pesticides, heavy metals, and leaching potential of various organic and inorganic contaminants from poorly managed residual waste products (biosolids, landfills, latrines, and septic tanks etc.). Understanding vulnerability of groundwater to pollution is critical to maintain the integrity of groundwater. A section on managed artificial recharge studies is included to highlight the sustainable approaches to groundwater conservation, replenishment and sustainability. This review paper is the synthesis of studies published in last one year that either documented the pollution problems or evaluated the vulnerability of groundwater pollution.

  19. Assessing human vulnerability: Daytime residential distribution as a vulnerability indicator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gokesch, Karin; Promper, Catrin; Papathoma-Köhle, Maria; Glade, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazard risk management is based on detailed information on potential impacts of natural hazards. Especially concerning fast onset hazards such as flash floods, earthquakes but also debris flows and landslides, knowing potential hotspots of impact to both, assets and human lives is essential. This information is important for emergency management and decision making in the response phase of the disaster management cycle. Emergency managers are in need of information regarding not only the number of humans being potentially affected but also the respective vulnerability of the group affected based on characteristics such as age, income, health condition, mobility, etc. regarding a certain hazard. The analysis presented focuses on the distribution of the population, assuming a certain pattern of people in a certain radius of action. The method applied is based on a regular pattern of movement of different groups of people and a pattern of presence in certain units, e.g. schools, businesses or residential buildings. The distribution is calculated on a minimum of available data including the average household size, as well as information on building types. The study area is located in the Southwest of Lower Austria, Austria. The city of Waidhofen/Ybbs can be regarded as a regional center providing basic infrastructure, shops and schools. The high concentration of buildings combining shops and residential units leads to a high damage potential throughout the whole study area. The presented results indicate the population distribution within the study area on an average working day. It is clear that explicitly high numbers of people are located in specific buildings (e.g. schools and hospitals) which also include highly vulnerable groups especially to fast onset hazards. The results provide emergency services with the information that they need in order to intervene directly where large numbers of victims or people that need to be evacuated are located. In this

  20. Methodology for prioritizing cyber-vulnerable critical infrastructure equipment and mitigation strategies.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Lon Andrew; Stinebaugh, Jennifer A.

    2010-04-01

    The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), National Cyber Security Division (NSCD), Control Systems Security Program (CSSP), contracted Sandia National Laboratories to develop a generic methodology for prioritizing cyber-vulnerable, critical infrastructure assets and the development of mitigation strategies for their loss or compromise. The initial project has been divided into three discrete deliverables: (1) A generic methodology report suitable to all Critical Infrastructure and Key Resource (CIKR) Sectors (this report); (2) a sector-specific report for Electrical Power Distribution; and (3) a sector-specific report for the water sector, including generation, water treatment, and wastewater systems. Specific reports for the water and electric sectors are available from Sandia National Laboratories.

  1. Assessment of human-natural system characteristics influencing global freshwater supply vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padowski, Julie C.; Gorelick, Steven M.; Thompson, Barton H.; Rozelle, Scott; Fendorf, Scott

    2015-10-01

    Global freshwater vulnerability is a product of environmental and human dimensions, however, it is rarely assessed as such. Our approach identifies freshwater vulnerability using four broad categories: endowment, demand, infrastructure, and institutions, to capture impacts on natural and managed water systems within the coupled human-hydrologic environment. These categories are represented by 19 different endogenous and exogenous characteristics affecting water supply vulnerability. By evaluating 119 lower per capita income countries (Jordan is the most vulnerable, reporting the greatest number of characteristics (5 of 19) at critical vulnerability levels, with Yemen and Djibouti nearly as vulnerable. Surprising similarities in vulnerability were also found among geographically disparate nations such as Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and Guatemala. Determining shared patterns of freshwater vulnerability provides insights into why water supply vulnerabilities are manifested in human-water systems at the national scale.

  2. Assessment of human-natural system characteristics influencing global freshwater supply vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padowski, Julie C.; Gorelick, Steven M.; Thompson, Barton H.; Rozelle, Scott; Fendorf, Scott

    2015-10-01

    Global freshwater vulnerability is a product of environmental and human dimensions, however, it is rarely assessed as such. Our approach identifies freshwater vulnerability using four broad categories: endowment, demand, infrastructure, and institutions, to capture impacts on natural and managed water systems within the coupled human-hydrologic environment. These categories are represented by 19 different endogenous and exogenous characteristics affecting water supply vulnerability. By evaluating 119 lower per capita income countries (systems at the national scale.

  3. Cyber Security: Critical Infrastructure Controls Assessment Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-01

    NERC-CIP NIST-Cyber Grid Chemical Cyber Physical System Security Standards PCI OASIS OWASP Nuclear Transportation ISA-99 CIP Security  Controls ...evaluate and assess the security  posture  of organizations’  information system and cyber system environment.   CIP Security  Controls ...Cyber Security: Critical Infrastructure Controls Assessment Framework Systems and Software Technology Conference, Utah May 16-19, 2011 Bharat Shah

  4. NGNP Infrastructure Readiness Assessment: Consolidation Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brian K Castle

    2011-02-01

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) project supports the development, demonstration, and deployment of high temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs). The NGNP project is being reviewed by the Nuclear Energy Advisory Council (NEAC) to provide input to the DOE, who will make a recommendation to the Secretary of Energy, whether or not to continue with Phase 2 of the NGNP project. The NEAC review will be based on, in part, the infrastructure readiness assessment, which is an assessment of industry's current ability to provide specified components for the FOAK NGNP, meet quality assurance requirements, transport components, have the necessary workforce in place, and have the necessary construction capabilities. AREVA and Westinghouse were contracted to perform independent assessments of industry's capabilities because of their experience with nuclear supply chains, which is a result of their experiences with the EPR and AP-1000 reactors. Both vendors produced infrastructure readiness assessment reports that identified key components and categorized these components into three groups based on their ability to be deployed in the FOAK plant. The NGNP project has several programs that are developing key components and capabilities. For these components, the NGNP project have provided input to properly assess the infrastructure readiness for these components.

  5. 77 FR 28894 - Maritime Vulnerability Self-Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-16

    ... SECURITY Transportation Security Administration Maritime Vulnerability Self-Assessment Tool AGENCY: Transportation Security Administration, DHS. ACTION: Notice of removal of TSA's maritime vulnerability self... transportation security incident (TSI)\\1\\ must conduct a vulnerability assessment and submit a security plan to...

  6. Salt vulnerability assessment methodology for urban streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betts, A. R.; Gharabaghi, B.; McBean, E. A.

    2014-09-01

    De-icing agents such as road salts while used for winter road maintenance can cause negative effects on urban stream water quality and drinking water supplies. A new methodology using readily available spatial data to identify Salt Vulnerable Areas (SVAs) for urban streams is used to prioritize implementation of best management practices. The methodology calculates the probable chloride concentration statistics at specified points in the urban stream network and compares the results with known aquatic species exposure tolerance limits to characterize the vulnerability scores. The approach prioritizes implementation of best management practices to areas identified as vulnerable to road salt. The vulnerability assessment is performed on seven sites in four watersheds in the Greater Toronto Area and validated using the Hanlon Creek watershed in Guelph. The mean annual in-stream chloride concentration equation uses readily available spatial data - with province-wide coverage - that can be easily used in any urban watershed.

  7. Addressing uncertainty in vulnerability assessments [Chapter 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda Joyce; Molly Cross; Evan Girvatz

    2011-01-01

    This chapter addresses issues and approaches for dealing with uncertainty specifically within the context of conducting climate change vulnerability assessments (i.e., uncertainties related to identifying and modeling the sensitivities, levels of exposure, and adaptive capacity of the assessment targets).

  8. Urban underground infrastructure mapping and assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huston, Dryver; Xia, Tian; Zhang, Yu; Fan, Taian; Orfeo, Dan; Razinger, Jonathan

    2017-04-01

    This paper outlines and discusses a few associated details of a smart cities approach to the mapping and condition assessment of urban underground infrastructure. Underground utilities are critical infrastructure for all modern cities. They carry drinking water, storm water, sewage, natural gas, electric power, telecommunications, steam, etc. In most cities, the underground infrastructure reflects the growth and history of the city. Many components are aging, in unknown locations with congested configurations, and in unknown condition. The technique uses sensing and information technology to determine the state of infrastructure and provide it in an appropriate, timely and secure format for managers, planners and users. The sensors include ground penetrating radar and buried sensors for persistent sensing of localized conditions. Signal processing and pattern recognition techniques convert the data in information-laden databases for use in analytics, graphical presentations, metering and planning. The presented data are from construction of the St. Paul St. CCTA Bus Station Project in Burlington, VT; utility replacement sites in Winooski, VT; and laboratory tests of smart phone position registration and magnetic signaling. The soil conditions encountered are favorable for GPR sensing and make it possible to locate buried pipes and soil layers. The present state of the art is that the data collection and processing procedures are manual and somewhat tedious, but that solutions for automating these procedures appear to be viable. Magnetic signaling with moving permanent magnets has the potential for sending lowfrequency telemetry signals through soils that are largely impenetrable by other electromagnetic waves.

  9. Assessing tsunami vulnerability, an example from Herakleio, Crete

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Papathoma

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent tsunami have caused massive loss of life, destruction of coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activity. To date, tsunami hazard studies have concentrated on determining the frequency and magnitude of events and in the production of simplistic flood maps. In general, such maps appear to have assumed a uniform vulnerability of population, infrastructure and business. In reality however, a complex set of factors interact to produce a pattern of vulnerability that varies spatially and temporally. A new vulnerability assessment approach is described, that incorporates multiple factors (e.g. parameters relating to the natural and built environments and socio-demographics that contribute to tsunami vulnerability. The new methodology is applied on a coastal segment in Greece and, in particular, in Crete, westof the city of Herakleio. The results are presented within a Geographic Information System (GIS. The application of GIS ensures the approach is novel for tsunami studies, since it permits interrogation of the primary database by several different end-users. For example, the GIS may be used: (1 to determine immediate post-tsunami disaster response needs by the emergency services; (2 to preplan tsunami mitigation measures by disaster planners; (3 as a tool for local planning by the municipal authorities or; (4 as a basis for catastrophe modelling by insurance companies. We show that population density varies markedly with the time of the year and that 30% of buildings within the inundation zone are only single story thus increasing the vulnerability of their occupants. Within the high inundation depth zone, 11% of buildings are identified as in need of reinforcement and this figure rises to 50% within the medium inundation depth zone. 10% of businesses are located within the high inundation depth zone and these may need to consider their level of insurance cover to protect against primary building damage, contents loss and

  10. Urban flood risk mitigation: from vulnerability assessment to resilient city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serre, D.; Barroca, B.

    2009-04-01

    some research activities have been undertaken, there are no specific methods and tools to assess flood vulnerability at the scale of the city. Indeed, by studying literature we can list some vulnerability indicators and a few Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. But generally indicators and GIS are not developed specifically at the city scale: often a regional scale is used. Analyzing vulnerability at this scale needs more accurate and formalized indicators and GIS tools. The second limit of existing GIS is temporal: even if vulnerability could be assessed and localized through GIS, such tools cannot assist city managers in their decision to efficiency recover after a severe flood event. Due to scale and temporal limits, methods and tools available to assess urban vulnerability need large improvements. Talking into account all these considerations and limits, our research is focusing on: • vulnerability indicators design; • recovery scenarios design; • GIS for city vulnerability assessment and recovery scenarios. Dealing with vulnerability indicators, the goal is to design a set of indicators of city sub systems. Sub systems are seen like assets of high value and complex and interdependent infrastructure networks (i.e. power supplies, communications, water, transport etc.). The infrastructure networks are critical for the continuity of economic activities as well as for the people's basic living needs. Their availability is also required for fast and effective recovery after flood disasters. The severity of flood damage therefore largely depends on the degree that both high value assets and critical urban infrastructure are affected, either directly or indirectly. To face the challenge of designing indicators, a functional model of the city system (and sub systems) has to be built to analyze the system response to flood solicitation. Then, a coherent and an efficient set of vulnerability of indicators could be built up. With such methods city stakeholders

  11. Effectively protecting cyber infrastructure and assessing security needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robbins, J.; Starman, R. [EWA Canada Ltd., Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2002-07-01

    This presentation addressed some of the requirements for effectively protecting cyber infrastructure and assessing security needs. The paper discussed the hype regarding cyber attacks, and presented the Canadian reality (as viewed by CanCERT). An assessment of security concerns was also presented. Recent cyber attacks on computer networks have raised fears of unsafe energy networks. Some experts claim the attacks are linked to terrorism, others blame industrial spying and mischief. Others dismiss the notion that somebody could bring down a power grid with a laptop as being far-fetched. It was noted that the cyber security threat is real, and that attacks are becoming more sophisticated as we live in a target rich environment. The issue of assessing vulnerabilities was discussed along with the selection of safeguards such as improving SCADA systems and the latest encryption methods to prevent hackers from bringing down computer networks. 3 tabs., 23 figs.

  12. Comparative studies of groundwater vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maria, Rizka

    2018-02-01

    Pollution of groundwater is a primary issue because aquifers are susceptible to contamination from land use and anthropogenic impacts. Groundwater susceptibility is intrinsic and specific. Intrinsic vulnerability refers to an aquifer that is susceptible to pollution and to the geological and hydrogeological features. Vulnerability assessment is an essential step in assessing groundwater contamination. This approach provides a visual analysis for helping planners and decision makers to achieve the sustainable management of water resources. Comparative studies are applying different methodologies to result in the basic evaluation of the groundwater vulnerability. Based on the comparison of methods, there are several advantages and disadvantages. SI can be overlaid on DRASTIC and Pesticide DRASTIC to extract the divergence in sensitivity. DRASTIC identifies low susceptibility and underestimates the pollution risk while Pesticide DRASTIC and SI represents better risk and is recommended for the future. SINTACS method generates very high vulnerability zones with surface waters and aquifer interactions. GOD method could be adequate for vulnerability mapping in karstified carbonate aquifers at small–moderate scales, and EPIK method can be used for large scale. GOD method is suitable for designing large area such as land management while DRASTIC has good accuracy and more real use in geoenvironmental detailed studies.

  13. Vulnerability Assessment of the Central Gulf of Mexico Coast Using a Multi-Dimensional Index Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narra, S.; Dismukes, D. E.

    2016-02-01

    The coastal communities of the central Gulf of Mexico (GOM) form a highly productive and complex human, physical, and natural environment that interact in ways unique compared to other coastal areas of the globe. Past studies on understanding coastal resiliency and developing vulnerability indices for this region have mainly focused on climate change and sea-level rise, with more recent research directed towards recognizing socio-economic and demographic factors. The interactions of climate change and non-climatic drivers of the coastal ecosystem such as economy and infrastructure concentration are often overlooked. To support the development of policies relating to coastal management and climate change, it is vital to integrate all the relevant parameters. This paper presents a relative vulnerability assessment of the central GOM coast by incorporating climatic, geological, socio-economic, demographic and economic variables. A multi-dimensional Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) developed from these parameters is used to rate coastal segments into different classes based on their range of vulnerability. We study the relationship between energy infrastructure and the physical and human aspects of communities to identify and prioritize communities, and the proximate infrastructure most at risk from coastal climate change. Spatial analysis will be a component part of this index-based approach to characterize, organize, and analyze data for assessing coastal community vulnerability in areas supporting critical energy infrastructure. Special focus is directed towards the concentration of pipeline and transportation infrastructure in this region.

  14. Vulnerability to air pollution: a building block in assessing vulnerability to multiple stressors

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Matooane, M

    2010-08-30

    Full Text Available stream_source_info Matooane_2010.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 7198 Content-Encoding UTF-8 stream_name Matooane_2010.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Mamopeli Matooane, MSc. Juanette... John, MSc. Riëtha Oosthuizen, MSc. Vulnerability to air pollution: a building block in assessing vulnerability to multiple stressors 30 August 2010 Overview • VulnerabilityVulnerability assessment - Scope - Approach - Assessing...

  15. Support Process Development for Assessing Green Infrastructure in Omaha, NE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evaluates Omaha’s current process for assessing green infrastructure projects and recommends improvements for comparing green and gray infrastructure. Compares Omaha’s design criteria to other cities. Reviews other US programs with rights-of-way criteria.

  16. Rapid Assessment of Seismic Vulnerability in Palestinian Refugee Camps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Dabbeek, Jalal N.; El-Kelani, Radwan J.

    Studies of historical and recorded earthquakes in Palestine demonstrate that damaging earthquakes are occurring frequently along the Dead Sea Transform: Earthquake of 11 July 1927 (ML 6.2), Earthquake of 11 February 2004 (ML 5.2). In order to reduce seismic vulnerability of buildings, losses in lives, properties and infrastructures, an attempt was made to estimate the percentage of damage degrees and losses at selected refugee camps: Al Ama`ri, Balata and Dhaishe. Assessing the vulnerability classes of building structures was carried out according to the European Macro-Seismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98) and the Fedral Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The rapid assessment results showed that very heavy structural and non structural damages will occur in the common buildings of the investigated Refugee Camps (many buildings will suffer from damages grades 4 and 5). Bad quality of buildings in terms of design and construction, lack of uniformity, absence of spaces between the building and the limited width of roads will definitely increase the seismic vulnerability under the influence of moderate-strong (M 6-7) earthquakes in the future.

  17. Intelligent Techniques for Power Systems Vulnerability Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed A. El-Sharkawi

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available With power grids considered national security matters, the reliable operation of the system is of top priority to utilities.  This concern is amplified by the utility’s deregulation, which increases the system’s openness while simultaneously decreasing the applied degree of control.  Vulnerability Assessment (VA deals with the power system’s ability to continue to provide service in case of an unforeseen catastrophic contingency.  Such contingencies may include unauthorized tripping, breaks in communication links, sabotage or intrusion by external agents, human errors, natural calamities and faults.  These contingencies could lead to a disruption of service to part or all of the system.  The service disruption is known as outage or blackout.  The paper outlines an approach by which feature extraction and boundary tracking can be implemented to achieve on line vulnerability assessment.

  18. Bridging the Gap Between Policy and Research Infrastructure: Risk and Vulnerability Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hugo, Wim; Rogers, Annabelle

    2017-04-01

    Linking sound scientific data and conclusions to decision and policy support is not a trivial task, and the difficulty in achieving this has been highlighted more than a decade ago (Reid, 2004). There are several reasons why this is the case, inter alia: 1. The language, (vocabularies, framework, and heuristics) adopted by the research community in a specific discipline may not translate into meaningful implementation language (Preston et al., 2015); 2. The researchers may not be in a position of influence (which includes aspects such as writing policy briefs, undertaking personal initiatives, and building up public or industry concern and interest) (Fox and Sitkin, 2015); 3. The frequency, timing, and/or certainty associated with research output is at odds with decision and policy-making cycles. Research typically progresses until there is a defensible level of certainty in statistical assessment of a result, while policy decisions are often made within a regular cycle; 4. Scientists are not trained for, or measured by, the typical work required for decision and policy support: synthesis of scenarios and cost-benefits of such scenarios given sometimes significant uncertainty in the input data, and cross-disciplinary concerns that need to be balanced. There is a significant expectation that research output, being increasingly open, standardised, and managed in formal research data infrastructure, will be useful to policy and decision makers without much additional intervention and modification. We believe that this is unlikely to be feasible in the majority of cases. For most instances, it will be necessary to provide a framework for the translation of scientific output into decision and policy support metrics or indicators at a frequency, with spatial and temporal resolution, and thematic coverage that suits the decision to be made. Such frameworks exist, since the need has been identified - sometimes formally - such as the very detailed framework developed by

  19. ELECTRIC INFRASTRUCTURE TECHNOLOGY, TRAINING, AND ASSESSMENT PROGRAM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    TREMEL, CHARLES L

    2007-06-28

    The objective of this Electric Infrastructure Technology, Training and Assessment Program was to enhance the reliability of electricity delivery through engineering integration of real-time technologies for wide-area applications enabling timely monitoring and management of grid operations. The technologies developed, integrated, tested and demonstrated will be incorporated into grid operations to assist in the implementation of performance-based protection/preventive measures into the existing electric utility infrastructure. This proactive approach will provide benefits of reduced cost and improved reliability over the typical schedule-based and as needed maintenance programs currently performed by utilities. Historically, utilities have relied on maintenance and inspection programs to diagnose equipment failures and have used the limited circuit isolation devices, such as distribution main circuit breakers to identify abnormal system performance. With respect to reliable problem identification, customer calls to utility service centers are often the sole means for utilities to identify problem occurrences and determine restoration methodologies. Furthermore, monitoring and control functions of equipment and circuits are lacking; thus preventing timely detection and response to customer outages. Finally, the two-way flow of real-time system information is deficient, depriving decision makers of key information required to effectively manage and control current electric grid demands to provide reliable customer service in abnormal situations. This Program focused on advancing technologies and the engineering integration required to incorporate them into the electric grid operations to enhance electrical system reliability and reduce utility operating costs.

  20. Improving vulnerability models: lessons learned from a comparison between flood and earthquake assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Ruiter, Marleen; Ward, Philip; Daniell, James; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-04-01

    In a cross-discipline study, an extensive literature review has been conducted to increase the understanding of vulnerability indicators used in both earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments, and to provide insights into potential improvements of earthquake and flood vulnerability assessments. It identifies and compares indicators used to quantitatively assess earthquake and flood vulnerability, and discusses their respective differences and similarities. Indicators have been categorized into Physical- and Social categories, and further subdivided into (when possible) measurable and comparable indicators. Physical vulnerability indicators have been differentiated to exposed assets such as buildings and infrastructure. Social indicators are grouped in subcategories such as demographics, economics and awareness. Next, two different vulnerability model types have been described that use these indicators: index- and curve-based vulnerability models. A selection of these models (e.g. HAZUS) have been described, and compared on several characteristics such as temporal- and spatial aspects. It appears that earthquake vulnerability methods are traditionally strongly developed towards physical attributes at an object scale and used in vulnerability curve models, whereas flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use scales. Flood risk studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as incorporating more detailed lifeline and building indicators, and developing object-based vulnerability curve assessments of physical vulnerability, for example by defining building material based flood vulnerability curves. Related to this, is the incorporation of time of the day based building occupation patterns (at 2am most people will be at home while at 2pm most people will be in the office). Earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies when it comes to the refined selection of social vulnerability indicators

  1. Airport vulnerability assessment: an analytical approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazarick, Richard T.

    1998-12-01

    The Airport Vulnerability Assessment Project (AVAP) is the direct result of congressional funding of recommendation 3.13 of the White House Commission on Aviation Safety and Security. This project takes a new approach to the assessment of U.S. commercial airports. AVAP uses automation, analytical methods and tools to evaluate vulnerability and risk, and to analyze cost/benefits in a more quantitative manner. This paper addresses both the process used to conduct this program, as well as a generalized look at the results, which have been achieved for the initial airport assessments. The process description covers the acquisition approach, the project structure, and a review of the various methodologies and tools being used by the sever performing organizations (Abacus Technology, Battelle, CTI, Lockwood Greene, Naval Facilities Engineering Service Center, SAIC, and Science & Engineering Associates). The tools described include ASSESS, SAM, RiskWatch, CASRAP, and AVAT. Included in the process is the utilization of an advisory panel made up predominantly of experts from the National Laboratories 9Sandia, Oak Ridge, Argonne and Brookhaven). The results portion addresses the findings and products resulting from the initial airport assessments. High level (unrestricted) summaries of the results are presented, along with initial trends in commonly recommended security improvements (countermeasures). Opportunities for the application of optics technology are identified.

  2. 6 CFR 27.215 - Security vulnerability assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.215 Security vulnerability assessments. (a) Initial Assessment. If the Assistant Secretary determines that a chemical facility is high-risk, the facility must complete a Security Vulnerability Assessment. A Security Vulnerability...

  3. Climate change vulnerability for species-Assessing the assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheatley, Christopher J; Beale, Colin M; Bradbury, Richard B; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Critchlow, Rob; Thomas, Chris D

    2017-09-01

    Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate-threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Risk assessment of mountain infrastructure destabilization in the French Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duvillard, Pierre-Allain; Ravanel, Ludovic; Deline, Philip

    2015-04-01

    In the current context of imbalance of geosystems in connection with the rising air temperature for several decades, high mountain environments are especially affected by the shrinkage of glaciers and the permafrost degradation which can trigger slope movements in the rock slopes (rockfall, rock avalanches) or in superficial deposits (slides, rock glacier rupture, thermokarst). These processes generate a risk of direct destabilization for high mountain infrastructure (huts, cable-cars...) in addition to indirect risks for people and infrastructure located on the path of moving rock masses. We here focus on the direct risk of infrastructure destabilization due to permafrost degradation and/or glacier shrinkage in the French Alps. To help preventing these risks, an inventory of all the infrastructure was carried out with a GIS using different data layers among which the Alpine Permafrost Index Map and inventories of the French Alps glaciers in 2006-2009, 1967-1971 and at the end of the Little Ice Age. 1769 infrastructures have been identified in areas likely characterized by permafrost and/or possibly affected by glacier shrinkage. An index of risk of destabilization has been built to identify and to rank infrastructure at risk. This theoretical risk index includes a characterization of hazards and a diagnosis of the vulnerability. The value of hazard is dependent on passive factors (topography, lithology, geomorphological context...) and on so-considered active factors (thermal state of the permafrost, and changing constraints on slopes related to glacier shrinkage). The diagnosis of vulnerability has meanwhile been established by combining the level of potential damage to the exposed elements with their operational and financial values. The combination of hazard and vulnerability determines a degree of risk of infrastructure destabilization (from low to very high). Field work and several inventories of infrastructure damages were used to validate it. The

  5. Interactive exploration of the vulnerability of the human infrastructure: an approach using simultaneous display of similar locations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceré, Raphaël; Kaiser, Christian

    2015-04-01

    Currently, three quarters of the Swiss population is living in urban areas. The total population is still increasing, and urbanized space is increasing event faster. Consequently, the intensity of use has decreased but the exposure of the urban space to natural events has grown along with the cost related to the impact of hazards. In line with this fact, during the 20th century there has been a noticeable increase of natural disasters accompanied by the rapid increase of the world population, leading to higher costs. Additionally to the fact that more people are exposed to natural hazards, the value of goods globally has increased more than proportionally. Consequently, the vulnerability of urban space is, more than ever before, a major issue for socio-economic development. Here, vulnerability is defined as the potential human loss or loss of infrastructure caused by a hazardous event. It encompasses factors of urban infrastructure, population and the environment, which increase the susceptibility of a location to the impact of hazards. This paper describes a novel method for improving the interactive use of exploratory data analysis in the context of minimizing vulnerability and disaster risk by prevention or mitigation. This method is used to assess the similarity between different locations with respect to several characteristics relevant to vulnerability at different scales, allowing for automatic display of multiple locations similar to the one under investigation by an expert. Visualizing vulnerability simultaneously for several locations allows for analyzing and comparing of metric characteristics between multiple places and at different scales. The interactivity aspect is also useful for understanding vulnerability patterns and it facilitates disaster risk management and decisions on global preventive measures in urban spaces. Metrics for vulnerability assessment can be extracted from extensive geospatial datasets such as high-resolution digital elevation

  6. Vulnerability assessment in avalanche hazardous areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frigo, B.; De Biagi, V.; Chiaia, B.

    2012-04-01

    Until a few decades ago, damages and human losses related to the avalanche risk represented only a small part of the destructive effects produced each year by natural events. Nowadays, on the contrary, the situation has considerably changed due to growing of the built-up areas and human presence in the mountain environment: this fact increases the current avalanche risk and puts snow avalanches and hydro-geological risks (floods, landslides, rock falls, etc…) at the same importance level. To mitigate the effects, Authorities provide both specific policies for urban development and mountain land use and simple but reliable methodologies to define the avalanche risk. As is well known, risk can be defined as the product of three factors: the environmental danger P (probability that a given phenomenon with its catastrophic intensity occurs in a specific area and time), the vulnerability V (degree of loss of one or more elements by a natural phenomenon of a known magnitude) and the exposure E (measure of the exposed value for each vulnerable element). A novel approach for the evaluation of the "Vulnerability factor" of a new or existing building under avalanche hazard by considering its structural (materials, strength and robustness, etc…) and architectural (shape, exposure, etc…) peculiarities is presented. A real avalanche event occurred in December, 2008 in Aosta Valley, which caused the total collapse of a building is taken as an example for tesing the effectiveness of the proposed risk assessment. By means of photographical analysis on undamaged parts, local surveys and debris arrangement, the impact pressure and the collapse dynamics are back-analyzed. The results are commented and comparisons between the damages and Vulnerability factor are made.

  7. Multi-dimensional flood vulnerability assessment using data envelopment analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahid, Zalina; Saharizan, Nurul Syuhada; Hamzah, Paezah; Hussin, Siti Aida Sheikh; Khairi, Siti Shaliza Mohd

    2017-11-01

    Malaysia has been greatly impacted by flood during monsoon seasons. Even though flood prone areas are well identified, assessment on the vulnerability of the disaster is lacking. Assessment of flood vulnerability, defined as the potential for loss when a disaster occurs, is addressed in this paper. The focus is on the development of flood vulnerability measurement in 11 states in Peninsular Malaysia using a non-parametric approach of Data Envelopment Analysis. Scores for three dimensions of flood vulnerability (Population Vulnerability, Social Vulnerability and Biophysical) were calculated using secondary data of selected input and output variables across an 11-year period from 2004 to 2014. The results showed that Johor and Pahang were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Population Vulnerability, followed by Kelantan, the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Social Vulnerability and Kedah, Pahang and Terengganu were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Biophysical Vulnerability among the eleven states. The results also showed that the state of Johor, Pahang and Kelantan to be most vulnerable across the three dimensions. Flood vulnerability assessment is important as it provides invaluable information that will allow the authority to identify and develop plans for flood mitigation and to reduce the vulnerability of flood at the affected regions.

  8. Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Facilities. Preliminary Synthesis of Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moss, R. H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL)/Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.; Blohm, A. J. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Delgado, A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL)/Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.; Henriques, J. J. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Malone, E L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL)/Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.

    2015-08-15

    U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. Agencies have been experimenting with these frameworks and approaches. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Department of Energy and the Department of Defense. The purpose of the paper is to solicit comments and feedback from interested program managers and analysts before final conclusions are published. The paper describes the characteristics of a systematic process for prioritizing needs for adaptation planning at individual facilities and examines requirements and methods needed. It then suggests a framework of steps for vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. In a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change. The case studies point to several preliminary conclusions; (1) Vulnerability assessments are needed to translate potential changes in climate exposure to estimates of impacts and evaluation of their significance for operations and mission attainment, in other words into information that is related to and useful in ongoing planning, management, and decision-making processes; (2) To increase the relevance and utility of vulnerability assessments to site personnel, the assessment process needs to emphasize the characteristics of the site infrastructure, not just climate change; (3) A multi-tiered framework that includes screening, vulnerability assessments at the most vulnerable installations, and adaptation design will efficiently target high-risk sites and infrastructure

  9. Chemical and radiological vulnerability assessment in urban areas

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Stojanović Božidar; Jovašević-Stojanović Milena

    2006-01-01

    .... This paper considers development of method for inclusion vulnerability assessment in land use planning with objective to assess and limit the consequences in cities of likely accidents involving...

  10. Assessing the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khresat, Sa'eb; Shraidaeh, Fadi; Maddat, Amer

    2015-04-01

    Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats facing Jordan. In particular, the combined effects of climate change and water scarcity threaten to affect food and water resources that are critical for livelihoods in Jordan. This is especially true for those communities who live in the dryland area in the country and who rely wholly on rain-fed agriculture. The exact nature and extent of the impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation distribution pattern remain uncertain and it is the poor and vulnerable who will be the most susceptible to climate change adverse effects. A vulnerability assessment of rain fed agriculture to climate change and variability in semi-arid parts of Jordan was conducted in 2014. The purpose of this study is to assess the vulnerability and resilience of the most vulnerable groups where rainfed and irrigated agriculture is practiced. Also, the study focused on quantifying the impacts on agricultural productivity in response to climate change. This will help policymakers and researchers better understand and anticipate the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture and on vulnerable communities in Jordan. Also, it will provide them with tools to identify and implement appropriate adaptation strategies. The data used includes; Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Those pathways were used for climate modeling. A decision support system (DSSAT) for agricultural production was used to assess the impact of climate changes on agricultural production. This approach was used for the Identification of climate change risk and their impacts on Agriculture. Outputs from models are used to assess the vulnerability of farmers and crops to climate and socio-economic change by estimating their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to external factors as a means of identifying what causes the differences in their

  11. Drought vulnerability assessment: The case of wheat farmers in Western Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarafshani, Kiumars; Sharafi, Lida; Azadi, Hossein; Hosseininia, Gholamhossein; De Maeyer, Philippe; Witlox, Frank

    2012-12-01

    Drought, as a natural and slow-onset phenomenon, creates numerous damages to agricultural communities. As a drought prone area in the Middle East, Iran has currently launched a crisis management approach to mitigate the harmful impacts of drought. However, thus far studies indicate that effective drought management strategies should be designed based upon vulnerability management which can increase farmers' ability to challenge the impacts. The purpose of this study was to assess drought vulnerability across three drought intensities (very high, extremely high, and critical) areas in Western Iran. Accordingly, a survey study was applied and 370 wheat farmers who all experienced drought during 2007-2009 were selected through a multi-stage stratified random sampling method. Face to face interviews were used to collect data on vulnerability indices from the farmers. Me-Bar and Valdez's vulnerability formula was applied to assess the vulnerability of wheat farmers during drought. Results revealed that the farmers' vulnerability is influenced mainly by economic, socio-cultural, psychological, technical, and infrastructural factors. The results also indicated that the farmers in Sarpole-Zahab township were most vulnerable compared to those in the Kermanshah township as the least vulnerable. Accordingly, some conclusions and recommendations are drawn for both policy-makers and practitioners who often must prioritize limited resources in the design vulnerability-reducing interventions.

  12. Vulnerability assessment including tangible and intangible components in the index composition: An Amazon case study of flooding and flash flooding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Milena Marília Nogueira de; Szlafsztein, Claudio Fabian

    2018-02-27

    The vulnerability of cities and communities in the Amazon to flooding and flash flooding is increasing. The effects of extreme events on populations vary across landscapes, causing vulnerability to differ spatially. Traditional vulnerability studies in Brazil and across the world have used the vulnerability index for the country and, more recently, municipality scales. The vulnerability dimensions are exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. For each of these dimensions, there is a group of indicators that constitutes a vulnerability index using quantitative data. Several vulnerability assessments have used sensitivity and exposure analyses and, recently, adaptive capacity has been considered. The Geographical Information Systems (GIS) analysis allows spatial regional modeling using quantitative vulnerability indicators. This paper presents a local-scale vulnerability assessment in an urban Amazonian area, Santarém City, using interdisciplinary methods. Data for exposure and sensitivity were gathered by remote sensing and census data, respectively. However, adaptive capacity refers to local capacities, whether infrastructural or not, and the latter were gathered by qualitative participatory methods. For the mixed data used to study adaptive capacity, we consider tangible components for countable infrastructure that can cope with hazards, and intangible components that reflect social activities based on risk perceptions and collective action. The results indicate that over 80% of the area is highly or moderately vulnerable to flooding and flash flooding. Exposure and adaptive capacity were determinants of the results. Lower values of adaptive capacity play a significant role in vulnerability enhancement. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Climate Vulnerability of Hydro-power infrastructure in the Eastern African Power Pool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridharan, Vignesh

    2017-04-01

    At present there is around 6000 MW of installed hydropower capacity in the Eastern African power pool (EAPP)[1]. With countries aggressively planning to achieve the Sustainable development goal (SDG) of ensuring access to affordable electricity for all, a three-fold increase in hydropower capacity is expected by 2040 [1]. Most of the existing and planned infrastructure lie inside the Nile River Basin. The latest assessment report (AR 5) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates a high level of climatic uncertainty in the Nile Basin. The Climate Moisture index (CMI) for the Eastern Nile region and the Nile Equatorial lakes varies significantly across the different General Circulation Models (GCM)[2]. Such high uncertainty casts a shadow on the plans to expand hydropower capacity, doubting whether hydropower expansion can contribute to the goal of improving access to electricity or end up as sunk investments. In this assessment, we analyze adaptation strategies for national energy systems in the Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP), which minimize the regret that could potentially arise from impacts of a changed climate. An energy systems model of the EAPP is developed representing national electricity supply infrastructure. Cross border transmission and hydropower infrastructure is defined at individual project level. The energy systems model is coupled with a water systems management model of the Nile River Basin that calculates the water availability at different hydropower infrastructures under a range of climate scenarios. The results suggest that a robust adaptation strategy consisting of investments in cross border electricity transmission infrastructure and diversifying sources of electricity supply will require additional investments of USD 4.2 billion by 2050. However, this leads to fuel and operational cost savings of up to USD 22.6 billion, depending on the climate scenario. [1] "Platts, 2016. World Electric Power Plants Database

  14. An assessment of coastal vulnerability for the South African coast ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Coastal vulnerability is the degree to which a coastal system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change. One of the most widely used methods in assessing risk and vulnerability of coastlines on a regional scale includes the calculation of vulnerability indices and presenting these results on a ...

  15. Adversarial safety analysis: borrowing the methods of security vulnerability assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Roger G

    2004-01-01

    Safety and security share numerous attributes. The author, who heads the (Security) Vulnerability Assessment Team at Los Alamos National Laboratory, therefore argues that techniques used to optimize security might be useful for optimizing safety. There are three main ways to attempt to improve security-security surveys, risk assessment (or "design basis threat"), and vulnerability assessments. The latter is usually the most effective. Vulnerability assessment techniques used to improve security can be applied to safety analysis--even though safety is not ordinarily viewed as having malicious adversaries (other than hazards involving deliberate sabotage). Thinking like a malicious adversary can nevertheless have benefits in identifying safety vulnerabilities. The attributes of an effective safety vulnerability assessment are discussed, and recommendations are offered for how such an adversarial assessment might work. A safety vulnerability assessment can potentially provide new insights, a fresh and vivid perspective on safety hazards, and increased safety awareness.

  16. Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N. H.

    2017-09-01

    Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

  17. Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N H

    2017-09-01

    Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

  18. Critical infrastructure security assessment, prevention, detection, response

    CERN Document Server

    FLAMMINI, F

    2012-01-01

    The most comprehensive handbook on critical infrastructures (CI), addressing both logical and physical security from an engineering point of view. The book surveys state-of-the-art methodologies and tools for CI analysis as well as strategies and technologies for CI protection.

  19. California Statewide Plug-In Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melaina, Marc; Helwig, Michael

    2014-05-01

    The California Statewide Plug-In Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Assessment conveys to interested parties the Energy Commission’s conclusions, recommendations, and intentions with respect to plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) infrastructure development. There are several relatively low-risk and high-priority electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) deployment options that will encourage PEV sales and

  20. Assessment of Rehabilitation Infrastructure in Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuhs, Amy K; LaGrone, Lacey N; Moscoso Porras, Miguel G; Rodríguez Castro, Manuel J; Ecos Quispe, Rosa Lizbeth; Mock, Charles N

    2017-11-21

    To assess rehabilitation infrastructure in Peru in terms of the World Health Organization (WHO) health systems building blocks. Anonymous quantitative survey; questions were based on the WHO's Guidelines for Essential Trauma Care and rehabilitation professionals' input. Large public hospitals and referral centers and an online survey platform. Convenience sample of hospital personnel working in rehabilitation and neurology (N=239), recruited through existing contacts and professional societies. Not applicable. Outcome measures were for 4 WHO domains: health workforce, health service delivery, essential medical products and technologies, and health information systems. Regarding the domain of health workforce, 47% of physical therapists, 50% of occupational therapists, and 22% of physiatrists never see inpatients. Few reported rehabilitative nurses (15%) or prosthetist/orthotists (14%) at their hospitals. Even at the largest hospitals, most reported ≤3 occupational therapists (54%) and speech-language pathologists (70%). At hospitals without speech-language pathologists, physical therapists (49%) or nobody (34%) perform speech-language pathology roles. At hospitals without occupational therapists, physical therapists most commonly (59%) perform occupational therapy tasks. Alternate prosthetist/orthotist task performers are occupational therapists (26%), physical therapists (19%), and physicians (16%). Forty-four percent reported interdisciplinary collaboration. Regarding the domain of health services, the most frequent inpatient and outpatient rehabilitation barriers were referral delays (50%) and distance/transportation (39%), respectively. Regarding the domain of health information systems, 28% reported rehabilitation service data collection. Regarding the domain of essential medical products and technologies, electrophysical agents (88%), gyms (81%), and electromyography (76%) were most common; thickened liquids (19%), swallow studies (24%), and cognitive

  1. Development of a Malicious Insider Composite Vulnerability Assessment Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    King, William H

    2006-01-01

    .... There are very few vulnerability and impact models capable of providing information owners with the ability to comprehensively assess the effectiveness an organization's malicious insider mitigation strategies...

  2. evaluation of models for assessing groundwater vulnerability

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DR. AMINU

    prepared in France by Margat (1968). In Germany,. Vierhuff et al. (1981) made a vulnerability map of the former Federal Republic of Germany before reunification on the same scale. The current international practices in mapping groundwater vulnerability have been reviewed by Vrba and Zaprozec (1994), Magiera (2000),.

  3. Spatial scan statistics in vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Sven; Ornetsmüller, Christine

    2013-04-01

    In the European Alps the concept of risk has increasingly been applied in order to reduce the susceptibility of society to mountain hazards. Risk is defined as a function of the magnitude and frequency of a hazard process times consequences; the latter being quantified by the value of elements at risk exposed and their vulnerability. Vulnerability means the degree of loss to a given element at risk resulting from the impact of a natural hazard. Recent empirical studies suggested a dependency of the degree of loss on the hazard impact, and respective vulnerability (or damage-loss) functions were developed. However, until now only little information is available on the spatial characteristics of vulnerability on a local scale; considerable ranges in the loss ratio for medium process intensities only provide a hint that there might me mutual reasons for lower or higher loss rates. In this paper we therefore focus on the spatial dimension of vulnerability by searching for spatial clusters in the damage ratio of elements at risk exposed. By using the software SaTScan, we applied an ordinal data model and a normal data model in order to detect spatial distribution patterns of five individual torrent events in Austria. For both models, we detected some significant clusters of high damage ratios, and consequently high vulnerability. Moreover, secondary clusters of high and low values were found. Based on our results, the assumption that lower process intensities result in lower damage ratios, and therefore in lower vulnerability, and vice versa, has to be partly rejected. The spatial distribution of vulnerability is not only dependent on the process intensities but also on the overall land use pattern and the individual constructive characteristics of the buildings exposed. Generally we suggest the use of a normal data model for test sites exceeding a minimum of 30 elements at risk exposed. As such, the study enhanced our understanding of spatial vulnerability patterns on

  4. Assessing vulnerability to climate change and socioeconomic stressors in the Reef Islands group, Solomon Islands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birk, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    This article assesses the vulnerability to climatic and socioeconomic stresses in the Reef Islands, Solomon Islands, an atoll island group in the Southwest Pacific. Climate change and the associated sea-level rise are often seen as the most pressing challenges to atoll communities, yet this study...... infrastructure, economic marginalization and weak governance of Solomon Islands. Findings suggest that some of these non-climatic stresses are currently – and in the short term – more important determinants of local vulnerability than climate change and sea-level rise. Certainly, these stresses are likely...

  5. Extending Vulnerability Assessment to Include Life Stages Considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgson, Emma E; Essington, Timothy E; Kaplan, Isaac C

    2016-01-01

    Species are experiencing a suite of novel stressors from anthropogenic activities that have impacts at multiple scales. Vulnerability assessment is one tool to evaluate the likely impacts that these stressors pose to species so that high-vulnerability cases can be identified and prioritized for monitoring, protection, or mitigation. Commonly used semi-quantitative methods lack a framework to explicitly account for differences in exposure to stressors and organism responses across life stages. Here we propose a modification to commonly used spatial vulnerability assessment methods that includes such an approach, using ocean acidification in the California Current as an illustrative case study. Life stage considerations were included by assessing vulnerability of each life stage to ocean acidification and were used to estimate population vulnerability in two ways. We set population vulnerability equal to: (1) the maximum stage vulnerability and (2) a weighted mean across all stages, with weights calculated using Lefkovitch matrix models. Vulnerability was found to vary across life stages for the six species explored in this case study: two krill-Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera, pteropod-Limacina helicina, pink shrimp-Pandalus jordani, Dungeness crab-Metacarcinus magister and Pacific hake-Merluccius productus. The maximum vulnerability estimates ranged from larval to subadult and adult stages with no consistent stage having maximum vulnerability across species. Similarly, integrated vulnerability metrics varied greatly across species. A comparison showed that some species had vulnerabilities that were similar between the two metrics, while other species' vulnerabilities varied substantially between the two metrics. These differences primarily resulted from cases where the most vulnerable stage had a low relative weight. We compare these methods and explore circumstances where each method may be appropriate.

  6. California Statewide PEV Infrastructure Assessment; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melaina, Marc; Eichman, Joshua

    2015-06-10

    This presentation discusses how the California Statewide Plug-In Electric Vehicle (PEV) Infrastructure Assessment provides a framework for understanding the potential energy (kWh) and demand (MW) impacts of PEV market growth; how PEV travel simulations can inform the role of public infrastructure in future market growth; and how ongoing assessment updates and Alternative Fuels Data Center outreach can help coordinate stakeholder planning and decision making and reduce uncertainties.

  7. Assessing Vulnerability to Drought on a pan-European scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urquijo, Julia; De Stefano, Lucia; González-Tánago, Itziar; Blauhut, Veit; Stahl, Kerstin

    2014-05-01

    During the past decade, a number of theoretical frameworks have been defined within the Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change communities to assess drought vulnerability at different scales, sectors, socio-political contexts, and geo-climatic conditions. However, there is still little consensus around the criteria, dimensions and factors used in these assessments; and none of them has been applied at a pan-European scale. This is due to a triple complexity. Firstly, drought as a natural hazard is a complex phenomenon due to the difficulty of determining its onset and its multiscale, multifaceted and dynamic nature. Secondly, there is an on-going debate regarding the concept of vulnerability and its constitutive elements, together with an important diversity of theoretical approaches to assess it. Finally, Europe's diversity in bioclimatic conditions, national water use practice and water use policies adds a challenging characteristic for working on pan-European scale. This work addresses the challenge of defining a methodological approach to the assessment of vulnerability factors to drought at a pan-European scale. For this purpose, we first review existing conceptual frameworks as well as of past initiatives for drought vulnerability assessment. The literature review showed that the high complexity of drought vulnerability assessment requires a clear definition of the concept of vulnerability and the associated terms, and that, before undertaking any assessment, it is necessary to clearly define the "vulnerable unit" i.e. replying to the questions 'whose vulnerability is being assessed?' and 'vulnerability to what type of impact?'. In this context, this work proposes the application of a factor-based approach, consisting in the analysis of significant factors that influence vulnerability in the context of specific situations of potential vulnerability. Those situations are framed within the specific drought characteristics of four different geoclimatic macro

  8. Vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taback, I.

    1979-01-01

    The discussion of vulnerability begins with a description of some of the electrical characteristics of fibers before definiting how vulnerability calculations are done. The vulnerability results secured to date are presented. The discussion touches on post exposure vulnerability. After a description of some shock hazard work now underway, the discussion leads into a description of the planned effort and some preliminary conclusions are presented.

  9. Vulnerability assessment to Drought in Various Provinces, approach towards risk management in the country

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Nasrnia

    2016-05-01

    deal with drought in the community and reflect the effects of drought on people's ability to cope with the event. The physical vulnerability is related to the characteristics and the structure of society, infrastructure and services that are the result of the damage caused by drought. In the present study, the economic dimension of vulnerability, including GDP per capita, value added in agriculture, value added in industry and the impact of drought on the GDP. Under the criteria of social vulnerability, population density, population growth, the rate of literacy, vulnerable populations, the costs of health and safety and the impact of drought on employment were considered. The physical dimensions of vulnerability include the rate of irrigated land and road density since the objective of this study was to assess vulnerability to drought in various provinces of the country, the required data for all provinces except for Alborz province was collected in 1391 from intelligence sources. To determine the importance of different dimensions of vulnerability as well as the sub-phase in each dimension, the questionnaire was used for paired comparisons. As for the tens of experts, specialists and professionals who have expertise using the Delphi method is incorporated. In general, the importance of physical vulnerability is more than economic and social vulnerability. On the other hand, according to the results the economic and social vulnerability is important, too. The results of this study showed that the importance of the physical vulnerability was more than the economic and social vulnerability and economic vulnerability and social importance were the same. In the economic vulnerability sub-criteria of per capita GDP, in the social vulnerability sub-criteria of population density and in the physical vulnerability sub-criteria of road density have the most importance. These findings may reflect the fact that when drought occurs, access to infrastructure, services and markets

  10. Coastal vulnerability assessment for Egypt's Mediterranean coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed E. Hereher

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The Egyptian Mediterranean coast was examined for the vulnerability to sea-level rise using the coastal vulnerability index (CVI, which was derived from the geologic and physical characteristics of the coast. This paper is the first to apply the CVI along the Egyptian coasts. The coast has different geomorphologic aspects ranging from steep-slope-rocky cliffs to gentle sloping deltaic sediments. Although the coast is under low tidal effect and low height waves, results showed that more than one-third of the 1000 km long coast is severely vulnerable to sea-level rise. Unfortunately, the area under high vulnerability to sea-level rise comprises the densely populated Nile Delta coast. National actions should be implemented to safeguard the entire coast at the threatened locations.

  11. Completing Northeast Regional Vulnerability Assessment Incorporating the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — NatureServe and Heritage Program collaborators have developed a Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to provide a rapid, scientifically defensible assessment of...

  12. Modelling self-assessed vulnerability to HIV and its associated ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Globally, individuals' self-assessment of vulnerability to HIV infection is important to maintain safer sexual behaviour and reduce risky behaviours. However, determinants of self-perceived risk of HIV infection are not well documented and differ. We assessed the level of self-perceived vulnerability to HIV ...

  13. 7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 11 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27 Section 1730.27 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL UTILITIES... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...

  14. vulnerabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gao Jian-Bo

    2015-01-01

    quantitatively evaluate individual vulnerability. However it cannot be applied to evaluate software risk directly and some metrics of CVSS are hard to assess. To overcome these shortcomings, this paper presents a novel method, which combines the CVSS base score with market share and software patches, to quantitatively evaluate the software risk. It is based on CVSS and includes three indicators: Absolute Severity Value (ASV, Relative Severity Value (RSV and Severity Value Variation Rate (SVVR. Experimental results indicate that by using these indicators, the method can quantitatively describe the risk level of software systems, and thus strengthen software security.

  15. Social vulnerability assessment: a growing practice in Europe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapsell, S.; McC arthy, S.

    2012-04-01

    This paper builds upon work on social vulnerability from the CapHaz-Net consortium, an ongoing research project funded by the European Commission in its 7th Framework Programme. The project focuses on the social dimensions of natural hazards, as well as on regional practices of risk prevention and management, and aims at improving the resilience of European societies to natural hazards, paying particular attention to social capacity building. The topic of social vulnerability is one of seven themes being addressed in the project. There are various rationales for examining the relevance of social vulnerability to natural hazards. Vulnerability assessment has now been accepted as a requirement for the effective development of emergency management capability, and assessment of social vulnerability has been recognised as being integral to understanding the risk to natural hazards. The aim of our research was to examine social vulnerability, how it might be understood in the context of natural hazards in Europe, and how social vulnerability can be addressed to increase social capacity. The work comprised a review of research on social vulnerability to different natural hazards within Europe and included concepts and definitions of social vulnerability (and related concepts), the purpose of vulnerability assessment and who decides who is vulnerable, different approaches to assessing or measuring social vulnerability (such as the use of 'classical' quantitative vulnerability indicators and qualitative community-based approaches, along with the advantages and disadvantages of both), conceptual frameworks for assessing social vulnerability and three case studies of social vulnerability studies within Europe: flash floods in the Italian Alps, fluvial flooding in Germany and heat waves in Spain. The review reveals variable application of social vulnerability analysis across Europe and there are indications why this might be the case. Reasons could range from the scale of

  16. Integrated flash flood vulnerability assessment: Insights from East Attica, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Thaler, Thomas; Heiser, Micha; Hübl, Johannes; Fuchs, Sven

    2016-10-01

    In the framework of flood risk assessment, vulnerability is a key concept to assess the susceptibility of elements at risk. Besides the increasing amount of studies on flash floods available, in-depth information on vulnerability in Mediterranean countries was missing so far. Moreover, current approaches in vulnerability research are driven by a divide between social scientists who tend to view vulnerability as representing a set of socio-economic factors, and natural scientists who view vulnerability in terms of the degree of loss to an element at risk. Further, vulnerability studies in response to flash flood processes are rarely answered in the literature. In order to close this gap, this paper implemented an integrated vulnerability approach focusing on residential buildings exposed to flash floods in Greece. In general, both physical and social vulnerability was comparable low, which is interpreted as a result from (a) specific building regulations in Greece as well as general design principles leading to less structural susceptibility of elements at risk exposed, and (b) relatively low economic losses leading to less social vulnerability of citizens exposed. The population show high risk awareness and coping capacity to response to natural hazards event and in the same time the impact of the events are quite low, because of the already high use of local protection measures. The low vulnerability score for East Attica can be attributed especially to the low physical vulnerability and the moderate socio-economic well-being of the area. The consequence is to focus risk management strategies mainly in the reduction of the social vulnerability. By analysing both physical and social vulnerability an attempt was made to bridge the gap between scholars from sciences and humanities, and to integrate the results of the analysis into the broader vulnerability context.

  17. Chemical and radiological vulnerability assessment in urban areas

    OpenAIRE

    Stojanović Božidar; Jovašević-Stojanović Milena

    2006-01-01

    Cities and towns are faced with various types of threat from the extraordinary events involving chemical and radiological materials as exemplified by major chemical accidents, radiological incidents, fires, explosions, traffic accidents, terrorist attacks, etc. On the other hand, many sensitive or vulnerable assets exist within cities, such as: settlements, infrastructures, hospitals, schools, churches, businesses, government, and others. Besides emergency planning, the land use planning also...

  18. Structural vulnerability assessment of electric power grids

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koç, Y.; Warnier, M.; Kooij, R.E.; Brazier, F.

    2014-01-01

    Cascading failures are the typical reasons of blackouts in power grids. The grid topology plays an important role in determining the dynamics of cascading failures in power grids. Measures for vulnerability analysis are crucial to assure a higher level of robustness of power grids. Metrics from

  19. Urbanising Thailand: Implications for climate vulnerability assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Friend, R.; Choosuk, C.; Hutanuwatr, K.; Inmuong, Y.; Kittitornkool, J.; Lambregts, B.; Promphakping, B.; Roachanakanan, T.; Thiengburanathum, P.; Siriwattanaphaiboon, S.

    2016-01-01

    This report summarises a series of studies carried out by a multi-disciplinary team of Thai scholars. It focuses on the dynamics of urbanisation and climate change risks, and on the linkages between urbanisation, climate change and emerging patterns of urban poverty and vulnerability. It provides

  20. Assessment of Road Infrastructures Pertaining to Malaysian Experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samsuddin Norshakina

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Road Infrastructures contribute towards many severe accidents and it needs supervision as to improve road safety levels. The numbers of fatalities have increased annually and road authority should seriously consider conducting programs or activities to periodically monitor, restore of improve road infrastructure. Implementation of road safety audits may reduce fatalities among road users and maintain road safety at acceptable standards. This paper is aimed to discuss the aspects of road infrastructure in Malaysia. The research signifies the impact of road hazards during the observations and the impact of road infrastructure types on road accidents. The F050 (Jalan Kluang-Batu Pahat road case study showed that infrastructure risk is closely related with number of accident. As the infrastructure risk increase, the number of road accidents also increase. It was also found that different road zones along Jalan Kluang-Batu Pahat showed different level of intersection volume due to number of road intersection. Thus, it is hoped that by implementing continuous assessment on road infrastructures, it might be able to reduce road accidents and fatalities among drives and the community.

  1. Threat Assessment of Potential Terrorist Attacks to the Transport Infrastructure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Nowacki

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents threat assessment of potential terrorist attacks to the transport infrastructure. The range of transportation infrastructure has spread and includes railway, inland waterways, road, maritime, air, intermodal transport infrastructure and intelligent transport systems (ITS. ITS service is the provision of an ITS application through a well-defined organisational and operational framework with the aim of contributing to the user safety, efficiency, comfort and/or to facilitate or support transport and travel operations. Terrorism means acts of violence committed by groups that view themselves as victimized by some notable historical wrong. Although these groups have no formal connection with governments, they usually have the financial and moral backing of sympathetic governments. Typically, they stage unexpected attacks on civilian targets, including transport infrastructure, with the aim of sowing fear and confusion. Based on the analyses, transportation infrastructure is potentially threatened with terrorism attacks, especially road and rail infrastructure (about 23 %, and to a smaller degree the maritime and air transport infrastructure (about 2 %. There were 90,3% of incidents involve land transport (74,5% – vehicles, 9,5% – buses, 6,3% - rail covered the 41-year period 1967-2007 in the USA. Legal steps to fight terrorism have been taken on the international level, furthermore, some institutions have been established for this purpose.

  2. Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Lifeline Networks Using Vulnerability Factor : In Application to Water Distribution Lines

    OpenAIRE

    能島, 暢呂; Nobuoto, NOJIMA; 岐阜大学工学部社会基盤工学科; Department of Civil Engineering, Gifu University

    2008-01-01

    A simple index is proposed for seismic vulnerability assessment of lifeline network facilities. The proposed index, "V-factor," is evaluated using the correction factors representing relative vulnerability corresponding to a variety of pipe diameters, pipe materials, and joint types in statistical models used widely for estimation of number of pipe breaks in the event of earthquakes. Such correction factors are averaged over the entire networks on the basis of extended length of pipelines cla...

  3. Assessment of food fraud vulnerability in the spices chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Silvis, I.C.J.; Ruth, van S.M.; Fels, van der Ine; Luning, P.A.

    2017-01-01

    Recent scandals have increased the need to strengthen companies’ ability to combat fraud within their own organizations and across their supply chain. Vulnerability assessments are a first step towards the inventory of fraud vulnerability and fraud mitigation plans. Spices are reported frequently

  4. Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment using Drastic Index and GIS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The assessment of groundwater vulnerability to contamination has become an important element for landuse planning and groundwater resource management. This study aims at estimating groundwater vulnerability using an integration of Geographic Information System (GIS) and DRASTIC method in the Kumasi ...

  5. Assessment of farm households' vulnerability to climate change in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate change is currently an emerging problem in Nigeria. The Niger Delta region presents some vulnerability due to activities of some oil companies. This study provides an assessment of farm households' perception of climate change and vulnerability in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. The data were obtained form ...

  6. Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment using Drastic Index and GIS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael

    2016-06-01

    Jun 1, 2016 ... The assessment of groundwater vulnerability to contamination has become an important element for landuse planning and groundwater resource management. This study aims at estimating groundwater vulnerability using an integration of. Geographic Information System (GIS) and DRASTIC method in the ...

  7. Beyond Vulnerability Assessment: Impact of Developments toward Local Adaptive Capacity in Kemijen City Village, Semarang City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayanimitta, M. E.; Puspasari, D. A.; Widyahantari, R.; Kristina, D.; Ratnaningtyas, T.; Setionurjaya, A.; Anindita, Y. A.

    2018-02-01

    Vulnerability Assessment is usually used for assessing the ability of an area on facing disaster. In previous studies, the study of Vulnerability Assessment applied only quantitative method to show the vulnerability level. Therefore, this study attempts to add information reviews using qualitative method. Kemijen City Village is one of the administrative areas in the northern part of Semarang City affected by climate change. The residents have to adapt it by renovating and elevating their houses and other infrastructures to avoid floods. There are some development programs held by government, NGOs, and corporations such as Banger Polder Development, PLPBK, etc. It is interesting to know how big the vulnerability level of Kemijen on facing flood disasters, then how the projects can affect local adaptive capacity. To answer it, this research uses mixed-method approach. Vulnerability Assessment uses quantitative method by scoring indicators of Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity, while the development impact uses qualitative method. The data were collected through interviews and FGD conducted in Joint Studio Course between Diponegoro University and University of Hawaii in October 2016. Non-physical programs such as community empowerment have more positive impacts on local adaptive capacity in Kemijen. Community participation is important for environmental sustainability that can not be done in a short time to educate the people.

  8. [Assessment of eco-environmental vulnerability of Hainan Island, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Bao-rong; Ouyang, Zhi-yun; Zhang, Hui-zhi; Zhang, Li-hua; Zheng, Hua

    2009-03-01

    Based on the assessment method of environmental vulnerability constructed by SOPAC and UNEP, this paper constructed an indicator system from three sub-themes including hazard, resistance, and damage to assess the eco-environmental vulnerability of Hainan Island. The results showed that Hainan Island was suffering a middling level eco-environmental hazard, and the main hazards came from some intensive human activities such as intensive agriculture, mass tourism, mining, and a mass of solid wastes thrown by islanders and tourists. Some geographical characters such as larger land area, larger altitude range, integrated geographical form, and abundant habitat types endowed Hainan Island higher resistance to environmental hazards. However, disturbed by historical accumulative artificial and natural hazards, the Island ecosystem had showed serious ecological damage, such as soil degradation and biodiversity loss. Comprehensively considered hazard, resistance, damage, and degradation, the comprehensive environmental vulnerability of the Island was at a middling level. Some indicators showed lower vulnerability, but some showed higher vulnerability.

  9. Assessing Terrorist Motivations for Attacking Critical "Chemical" Infrastructure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ackerman, G; Bale, J; Moran, K

    2004-12-14

    Certain types of infrastructure--critical infrastructure (CI)--play vital roles in underpinning our economy, security, and way of life. One particular type of CI--that relating to chemicals--constitutes both an important element of our nation's infrastructure and a particularly attractive set of potential targets. This is primarily because of the large quantities of toxic industrial chemicals (TICs) it employs in various operations and because of the essential economic functions it serves. This study attempts to minimize some of the ambiguities that presently impede chemical infrastructure threat assessments by providing new insight into the key motivational factors that affect terrorist organizations propensity to attack chemical facilities. Prepared as a companion piece to the Center for Nonproliferation Studies August 2004 study--''Assessing Terrorist Motivations for Attacking Critical Infrastructure''--it investigates three overarching research questions: (1) why do terrorists choose to attack chemical-related infrastructure over other targets; (2) what specific factors influence their target selection decisions concerning chemical facilities; and (3) which, if any, types of groups are most inclined to attack chemical infrastructure targets? The study involved a multi-pronged research design, which made use of four discrete investigative techniques to answer the above questions as comprehensively as possible. These include: (1) a review of terrorism and threat assessment literature to glean expert consensus regarding terrorist interest in targeting chemical facilities; (2) the preparation of case studies to help identify internal group factors and contextual influences that have played a significant role in leading some terrorist groups to attack chemical facilities; (3) an examination of data from the Critical Infrastructure Terrorist Incident Catalog (CrITIC) to further illuminate the nature of terrorist attacks against chemical

  10. Environmental impact assessment of rail infrastructure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-29

    This project resulted in three products: a comprehensive "Sustainable Rail Checklist," a rail planning GIS database, and a web GIS tool that integrates sustainability metrics and facilitates a rapid assessment before a formal NEPA process is implemen...

  11. The Assessment of Vulnerability of Industrial Parks to Climate Change in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryu, J. E.; Lee, D. K.; Jung, T. Y.; Choi, K. L.; Lee, S. H.

    2014-12-01

    Many countries are developing policy and measures to adapt to climate changes at the national and local levels, but the assessment of vulnerability to climate change and the establishment of countermeasures in the industries considering industrial factors such as worker, infrastructure are insufficient due to the characteristics of diverse processes and fields. In South Korea, the national government provides infrastructures for industrial parks where various companies in manufacturing and other industries are concentrated . Because of their concentration, damages can aggravate in case of natural disasters such as typhoons. In this study, vulnerability indices for climate change were developed and evaluated using climate scenarios for the climate exposure of localized terrential downpour for eight industrial parks. The vulnerability indices were selected and reviewed through literature review and two in-depth interviews with experts in various industries, and the assessment of vulnerability to climate change was conducted by collecting relevant information including the Directory of Industrial Complexes. The vulnerability of each industrial park to climate change was assessed for four time serious such as the base line, 2020s, 2050s, and 2100s . As a result, even though the possibility of localized heavy rain was the highest in Yeosu(Southeast coast) at present, but it was predicted that Gwangyang(Southwest coast) will be higher in the future. For the influences of climate including sensitivity, Ulsan Mipo(Southeast coast) is currently under the highest influence of climate, but the Gumi(Inland area) was forecasted to be under the highest influence of climate in the future. As a result of the assessment of vulnerability to climate change including adaptive capacity, Gumi and Myongji Noksan(Southeast coast) were most vulnerable to localized heavy rain. The degree of vulnerability of all the industrial parks except Ulsan and Yeosu was forecasted to increase in the

  12. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    A.Gaddi

    2011-01-01

    Between the end of March to June 2011, there has been no detector downtime during proton fills due to CMS Infrastructures failures. This exceptional performance is a clear sign of the high quality work done by the CMS Infrastructures unit and its supporting teams. Powering infrastructure At the end of March, the EN/EL group observed a problem with the CMS 48 V system. The problem was a lack of isolation between the negative (return) terminal and earth. Although at that moment we were not seeing any loss of functionality, in the long term it would have led to severe disruption to the CMS power system. The 48 V system is critical to the operation of CMS: in addition to feeding the anti-panic lights, essential for the safety of the underground areas, it powers all the PLCs (Twidos) that control AC power to the racks and front-end electronics of CMS. A failure of the 48 V system would bring down the whole detector and lead to evacuation of the cavern. EN/EL technicians have made an accurate search of the fault, ...

  13. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    A. Gaddi and P. Tropea

    2012-01-01

    The CMS Infrastructures teams are preparing for the LS1 activities. A long list of maintenance, consolidation and upgrade projects for CMS Infrastructures is on the table and is being discussed among Technical Coordination and sub-detector representatives. Apart from the activities concerning the cooling infrastructures (see below), two main projects have started: the refurbishment of the SX5 building, from storage area to RP storage and Muon stations laboratory; and the procurement of a new dry-gas (nitrogen and dry air) plant for inner detector flushing. We briefly present here the work done on the first item, leaving the second one for the next CMS Bulletin issue. The SX5 building is entering its third era, from main assembly building for CMS from 2000 to 2007, to storage building from 2008 to 2012, to RP storage and Muon laboratory during LS1 and beyond. A wall of concrete blocks has been erected to limit the RP zone, while the rest of the surface has been split between the ME1/1 and the CSC/DT laborat...

  14. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    A. Gaddi and P. Tropea

    2011-01-01

    Most of the work relating to Infrastructure has been concentrated in the new CSC and RPC manufactory at building 904, on the Prevessin site. Brand new gas distribution, powering and HVAC infrastructures are being deployed and the production of the first CSC chambers has started. Other activities at the CMS site concern the installation of a new small crane bridge in the Cooling technical room in USC55, in order to facilitate the intervention of the maintenance team in case of major failures of the chilled water pumping units. The laser barrack in USC55 has been also the object of a study, requested by the ECAL community, for the new laser system that shall be delivered in few months. In addition, ordinary maintenance works have been performed during the short machine stops on all the main infrastructures at Point 5 and in preparation to the Year-End Technical Stop (YETS), when most of the systems will be carefully inspected in order to ensure a smooth running through the crucial year 2012. After the incide...

  15. Quantitative Vulnerability Assessment of Cyber Security for Distribution Automation Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Xiaming Ye; Junhua Zhao; Yan Zhang; Fushuan Wen

    2015-01-01

    The distribution automation system (DAS) is vulnerable to cyber-attacks due to the widespread use of terminal devices and standard communication protocols. On account of the cost of defense, it is impossible to ensure the security of every device in the DAS. Given this background, a novel quantitative vulnerability assessment model of cyber security for DAS is developed in this paper. In the assessment model, the potential physical consequences of cyber-attacks are analyzed from two levels: t...

  16. Assessment of Vulnerability to Coccidioidomycosis in Arizona and California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shriber, Jennifer; Conlon, Kathryn C; Benedict, Kaitlin; McCotter, Orion Z; Bell, Jesse E

    2017-06-23

    Coccidioidomycosis is a fungal infection endemic to the southwestern United States, particularly Arizona and California. Its incidence has increased, potentially due in part to the effects of changing climatic variables on fungal growth and spore dissemination. This study aims to quantify the county-level vulnerability to coccidioidomycosis in Arizona and California and to assess the relationships between population vulnerability and climate variability. The variables representing exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity were combined to calculate county level vulnerability indices. Three methods were used: (1) principal components analysis; (2) quartile weighting; and (3) percentile weighting. Two sets of indices, "unsupervised" and "supervised", were created. Each index was correlated with coccidioidomycosis incidence data from 2000-2014. The supervised percentile index had the highest correlation; it was then correlated with variability measures for temperature, precipitation, and drought. The supervised percentile index was significantly correlated ( p vulnerable counties and provides support for the hypothesis that population vulnerability to coccidioidomycosis is associated with climate variability.

  17. Assessing the vulnerability of buildings to tsunami in Sydney

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dall'Osso

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Australia is vulnerable to the impacts of tsunamis and exposure along the SE coast of New South Wales is especially high. Significantly, this is the same area reported to have been affected by repeated large magnitude tsunamis during the Holocene. Efforts are under way to complete probabilistic risk assessments for the region but local government planners and emergency risk managers need information now about building vulnerability in order to develop appropriate risk management strategies. We use the newly revised PTVA-3 Model (Dall'Osso et al., 2009 to assess the relative vulnerability of buildings to damage from a "worst case tsunami" defined by our latest understanding of regional risk – something never before undertaken in Australia. We present selected results from an investigation of building vulnerability within the local government area of Manly – an iconic coastal area of Sydney. We show that a significant proportion of buildings (in particular, residential structures are classified as having "High" and "Very High" Relative Vulnerability Index scores. Furthermore, other important buildings (e.g., schools, nursing homes and transport structures are also vulnerable to damage. Our results have serious implications for immediate emergency risk management, longer-term land-use zoning and development, and building design and construction standards. Based on the work undertaken here, we recommend further detailed assessment of the vulnerability of coastal buildings in at risk areas, development of appropriate risk management strategies and a detailed program of community engagement to increase overall resilience.

  18. Risk assessment by dynamic representation of vulnerability, exploitation, and impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cam, Hasan

    2015-05-01

    Assessing and quantifying cyber risk accurately in real-time is essential to providing security and mission assurance in any system and network. This paper presents a modeling and dynamic analysis approach to assessing cyber risk of a network in real-time by representing dynamically its vulnerabilities, exploitations, and impact using integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. Given the set of vulnerabilities detected by a vulnerability scanner in a network, this paper addresses how its risk can be assessed by estimating in real-time the exploit likelihood and impact of vulnerability exploitation on the network, based on real-time observations and measurements over the network. The dynamic representation of the network in terms of its vulnerabilities, sensor measurements, and observations is constructed dynamically using the integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. The transition rates of outgoing and incoming links of states in hidden Markov models are used in determining exploit likelihood and impact of attacks, whereas emission rates help quantify the attack states of vulnerabilities. Simulation results show the quantification and evolving risk scores over time for individual and aggregated vulnerabilities of a network.

  19. Methods for the Assessment of Rural Social Infrastructure Needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vaznonienė Gintarė

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This article reveals the importance of different methods for assessment of social infrastructure (SI development needs in rural areas. Rural social infrastructure is a significant element of rural territories interpreted in different ways: as social and economic system, basic services for local community, social bridge for integrating different social groups into the society, important factor for satisfaction of rural people’s needs and acknowledgement of their human rights. Besides the mentioned importance of SI to rural areas and rural community, the lack of exploration of methods for analysis of the needs for developing rural social infrastructure has been noticed in the scientific literature. The research aim is therefore to analyse the methods for assessment of needs of rural social infrastructure. The research question has been set accordingly: how different methods for need analysis could be applied to social infrastructure planning and development? The research results show that need analysis is generally linked to various methods, but for the SI planning, development and implementation specifically, there are certain methods, the application of which depends on specifics of rural areas (as territory and features of local community.

  20. 78 FR 29375 - Protected Critical Infrastructure Information (PCII) Office Self-Assessment Questionnaire

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-20

    ... SECURITY Protected Critical Infrastructure Information (PCII) Office Self- Assessment Questionnaire AGENCY... Information Collection Division (IICD), Protected Critical Infrastructure Information (PCII) Program will...: The PCII Program was created by Congress under the Critical Infrastructure Information Act of 2002...

  1. Vulnerability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Issa, Sahar; van der Molen, Irna; Stel, Nora

    2015-01-01

    This chapter reviews the literature on vulnerability. Together with Chapter 3, that offers a literature review specifically focused on resilience, it lays the conceptual foundations for the empirical chapters in this edited volume. Vulnerability symbolizes the susceptibility of a certain system to

  2. Vulnerability assessments as a political creation: tsunami management in Portugal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pronk, Maartje; Maat, Harro; Crane, Todd A

    2017-10-01

    Vulnerability assessments are a cornerstone of contemporary disaster research. This paper shows how research procedures and the presentation of results of vulnerability assessments are politically filtered. Using data from a study of tsunami risk assessment in Portugal, the paper demonstrates that approaches, measurement instruments, and research procedures for evaluating vulnerability are influenced by institutional preferences, lines of communication, or lack thereof, between stakeholder groups, and available technical expertise. The institutional setting and the pattern of stakeholder interactions form a filter, resulting in a particular conceptualisation of vulnerability, affecting its operationalisation via existing methods and technologies and its institutional embedding. The Portuguese case reveals a conceptualisation that is aligned with perceptions prevalent in national government bureaucracies and the exclusion of local stakeholders owing to selected methodologies and assessment procedures. The decisions taken by actors involved in these areas affect how vulnerability is assessed, and ultimately which vulnerability reduction policies will be recommended in the appraisal. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

  3. A framework for sea level rise vulnerability assessment for southwest U.S. military installations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadwick, B.; Flick, Reinhard; Helly, J.; Nishikawa, T.; Pei, Fang Wang; O'Reilly, W.; Guza, R.; Bromirski, Peter; Young, A.; Crampton, W.; Wild, B.; Canner, I.

    2011-01-01

    We describe an analysis framework to determine military installation vulnerabilities under increases in local mean sea level as projected over the next century. The effort is in response to an increasing recognition of potential climate change ramifications for national security and recommendations that DoD conduct assessments of the impact on U.S. military installations of climate change. Results of the effort described here focus on development of a conceptual framework for sea level rise vulnerability assessment at coastal military installations in the southwest U.S. We introduce the vulnerability assessment in the context of a risk assessment paradigm that incorporates sources in the form of future sea level conditions, pathways of impact including inundation, flooding, erosion and intrusion, and a range of military installation specific receptors such as critical infrastructure and training areas. A unique aspect of the methodology is the capability to develop wave climate projections from GCM outputs and transform these to future wave conditions at specific coastal sites. Future sea level scenarios are considered in the context of installation sensitivity curves which reveal response thresholds specific to each installation, pathway and receptor. In the end, our goal is to provide a military-relevant framework for assessment of accelerated SLR vulnerability, and develop the best scientifically-based scenarios of waves, tides and storms and their implications for DoD installations in the southwestern U.S. ?? 2011 MTS.

  4. Territorial Vulnerability Assessment Supporting Risk Managing Coastal Areas Due to Tsunami Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Leandro Barros

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Portugal’s coastline extends 1187 km. It is characterized by social, economic and physical conditions that differentiate it from the rest of the territory, including population density, location of infrastructure and support of tourism activities. Therefore, it has a significant exposure if a tsunami occurs. Six coastal study sites with varying characteristics were selected for evaluation in this paper, including two core beach-use areas, two residential areas and two industrial areas. These sites are located in the municipalities of Figueira da Foz, Setúbal and Vila do Bispo. The analysis began with the calculation of the potential tsunami inundation area for each site using the 1755 Lisbon tsunami. Next, a methodology distinguished by its multidimensional character was applied to assess local vulnerability to tsunamis. This methodology assesses vulnerabilities associated with morphological, structural, social and tax factors. These four vulnerability components were combined to obtain a Composite Vulnerability Index (CVI, which enabled us to identify the most vulnerable areas and to determine the distinguishing characteristics of each area.

  5. CRAC: Confidentiality Risk Assessment and IT-Infrastructure Comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morali, A.; Zambon, Emmanuele; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    In this paper we present CRAC, an IT infrastructure-based method for assessing and comparing confidentiality risks of IT based collaborations. The method determines confidentiality risks by taking into account the effects of the leakage of confidential information (e.g. industrial secrets and user

  6. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    A. Gaddi

    2012-01-01

    The CMS Infrastructures teams are constantly ensuring the smooth operation of the different services during this critical period when the detector is taking data at full speed. A single failure would spoil hours of high luminosity beam and everything is put in place to avoid such an eventuality. In the meantime however, the fast approaching LS1 requires that we take a look at the various activities to take place from the end of the year onwards. The list of infrastructures consolidation and upgrade tasks is already long and will touch all the services (cooling, gas, inertion, powering, etc.). The definitive list will be available just before the LS1 start. One activity performed by the CMS cooling team that is worth mentioning is the maintenance of the cooling circuits at the CMS Electronics Integration Centre (EIC) at building 904. The old chiller has been replaced by a three-units cooling plant that also serves the HVAC system for the new CSC and RPC factories. The commissioning of this new plant has tak...

  7. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    Andrea Gaddi

    2010-01-01

    In addition to the intense campaign of replacement of the leaky bushing on the Endcap circuits, other important activities have also been completed, with the aim of enhancing the overall reliability of the cooling infrastructures at CMS. Remaining with the Endcap circuit, the regulating valve that supplies cold water to the primary side of the circuit heat-exchanger, is not well adapted in flow capability and a new part has been ordered, to be installed during a stop of LHC. The instrumentation monitoring of the refilling rate of the circuits has been enhanced and we can now detect leaks as small as 0.5 cc/sec, on circuits that have nominal flow rates of some 20 litres/sec. Another activity starting now that the technical stop is over is the collection of spare parts that are difficult to find on the market. These will be stored at P5 with the aim of reducing down-time in case of component failure. Concerning the ventilation infrastructures, it has been noticed that in winter time the relative humidity leve...

  8. Quantitative Vulnerability Assessment of Cyber Security for Distribution Automation Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaming Ye

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The distribution automation system (DAS is vulnerable to cyber-attacks due to the widespread use of terminal devices and standard communication protocols. On account of the cost of defense, it is impossible to ensure the security of every device in the DAS. Given this background, a novel quantitative vulnerability assessment model of cyber security for DAS is developed in this paper. In the assessment model, the potential physical consequences of cyber-attacks are analyzed from two levels: terminal device level and control center server level. Then, the attack process is modeled based on game theory and the relationships among different vulnerabilities are analyzed by introducing a vulnerability adjacency matrix. Finally, the application process of the proposed methodology is illustrated through a case study based on bus 2 of the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS. The results demonstrate the reasonability and effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

  9. An Integrated Method of Supply Chains Vulnerability Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiaguo Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Supply chain vulnerability identification and evaluation are extremely important to mitigate the supply chain risk. We present an integrated method to assess the supply chain vulnerability. The potential failure mode of the supply chain vulnerability is analyzed through the SCOR model. Combining the fuzzy theory and the gray theory, the correlation degree of each vulnerability indicator can be calculated and the target improvements can be carried out. In order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, we use Kendall’s tau coefficient to measure the effect of different methods. The result shows that the presented method has the highest consistency in the assessment compared with the other two methods.

  10. Institutional adaptability to redress electricity infrastructure vulnerability due to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    John Foster; William Paul Bell; Craig Froome; Phil Wild; Liam Wagner; Deepak Sharma; Suwin Sandu; Suchi Misra; Ravindra Bagia

    2012-01-01

    The objectives of this project are to examine the adaptive capacity of existing institutional arrangements in the National Electricity Market (NEM) to existing and predicted climate change conditions. Specifically the project aims to: 1. identify climate change adaptation issues in the NEM; 1. analyse climate change impacts on reliability in the NEM under alternative climate change scenarios to 2030, particularly what adaptation strategies the power generation and supply network infrastructur...

  11. Integrated assessment of urban vulnerability and resilience. Case study: Targu Ocna town, Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grozavu, Adrian; Bănică, Alexandru

    2015-04-01

    Vulnerability assessment frequently emphasizes the internal fragility of a system in relation to a given hazard, when compared to similar systems or to a reference standard. This internal fragility, either biophysical or structural, may affect the ability to predict, to prepare for and cope with or to recover from the manifestation of a risk phenomenon. Thus, the vulnerability is highly related to resilience and adaptability. There is no single methodology for vulnerability and resilience analysis, their assessment can only be made by identifying and integrating indicators which are compatible with the analysis level and the geographic, economic and social features of a certain area. An integrated model of evaluating vulnerability and resilience capacity is being proposed in this paper for Targu Ocna, a small mining settlement in the Eastern Carpathians of Romania, that became in the last years a tourist town and acts within the surrounding territory as a dynamic local pole. Methodologically, the following steps and operations were considered: identifying potential hazards, identifying elements at risk, identifying proper indicators and integrating them in order to evaluate the general vulnerability and resilience. The inventory of elements at risk (the number of people potentially affected, residential or other functionalities buildings, roads and other infrastructure elements etc.) was made based on General Urban Plan, topographic maps (scale 1:5000), ortophotos from 2003 and 2008 and field mapping and researches. Further on, several vulnerability indicators were identified and included within the analytical approach: dependency ratio, income, quality of the habitat and technical urban facilities, environment quality showing differentiated sensitivity. Issues such as preparedness and preventive measures (priority areas within the risk prevention plans), coping ability (networks' geometry and connectivity, emergency utilities and services accessibility) and the

  12. Attacker economics for Internet-scale vulnerability risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Allodi, L.

    2013-01-01

    Vulnerability risk assessment is a crucial process in security management, and the CVSS score is the standard-de-facto risk metric for software vulnerabilities. In this manuscript I show that current risk assessment methodologies do not fit real “in the wild” attack data. I also present my three-steps plan to identify an Internet-scale risk assessment methodology that accounts for attacker economics and opportunities. Eventually, I want to provide answers like the following: “If we depl...

  13. Vulnerability studies and integrated assessments for hazard risk reduction in Pittsburgh, PA (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klima, K.

    2013-12-01

    Today's environmental problems stretch beyond the bounds of most academic disciplines, and thus solutions require an interdisciplinary approach. For instance, the scientific consensus is changes in the frequency and severity of many types of extreme weather events are increasing (IPCC 2012). Yet despite our efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, we continue to experience severe weather events such as Superstorm Sandy, record heat and blizzards, and droughts. These natural hazards, combined with increased vulnerability and exposure, result in longer-lasting disruptions to critical infrastructure and business continuity throughout the world. In order to protect both our lives and the economy, we must think beyond the bounds of any one discipline to include an integrated assessment of relevant work. In the wake of recent events, New York City, Washington, DC, Chicago, and a myriad of other cities have turned to their academic powerhouses for assistance in better understanding their vulnerabilities. This talk will share a case study of the state of integrated assessments and vulnerability studies of energy, transportation, water, real estate, and other main sectors in Pittsburgh, PA. Then the talk will use integrated assessment models and other vulnerability studies to create coordinated sets of climate projections for use by the many public agencies and private-sector organizations in the region.

  14. Understanding Data Needs for Vulnerability Assessment and Decision Making to Manage Vulnerability of Department of Defense Installations to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-01

    vulnerability and disaster risk management approaches; Linkov et al., 2014, argue for integration of risk analysis into resilience planning; Larkin et al...FINAL REPORT Understanding Data Needs for Vulnerability Assessment and Decision Making to Manage Vulnerability of Department of Defense...2. REPORT TYPE Final Technical Report 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 5/17/2012 to 9/30/2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Vulnerability of DoD

  15. Impact Assessment of Its Applications for Vulnerable Road Users

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholliers, J.; Noort, M. van; Johansson, C.; Mans, D.; Silla, A.; Bell, D.; Hancox, G.; Leden, L.; Giannelos, I.; Bax, B.; Malone, K.

    2016-01-01

    The EU-sponsored VRUITS project has prioritized ITS applications which have a potential to improve the safety, mobility and comfort of vulnerable road users (VRUs) and performed a quantitative safety, mobility and comfort assessment for the 10 most promising systems. The assessment methodology

  16. Impact assessment of ITS applications for vulnerable road users.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholliers, J. Noort, M. van Johansson, C. Mans, D. Silla, A. Bell, D. Hancox, G. Leden, L. Giannelos, I. Bax, B. & Malone, K.

    2017-01-01

    The EU-sponsored VRUITS project has prioritized ITS applications which have a potential to improve the safety, mobility and comfort of vulnerable road users (VRUs) and performed a quantitative safety, mobility and comfort assessment for the 10 most promising systems. The assessment methodology

  17. Regulatory Guide on Conducting a Security Vulnerability Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ek, David R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-01-01

    This document will provide guidelines on conducting a security vulnerability assessment at a facility regulated by the Radiation Protection Centre. The guidelines provide a performance approach assess security effectiveness. The guidelines provide guidance for a review following the objectives outlined in IAEA NSS#11 for Category 1, 2, & 3 sources.

  18. Modelling self-assessed vulnerability to HIV and its associated ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2017-10-19

    Oct 19, 2017 ... Background: Globally, individuals' self-assessment of vulnerability to HIV infection is important to maintain safer sexual behaviour and reduce risky behaviours. However, determinants of self-perceived risk of HIV infection are not well documented and differ. We assessed the level of self-perceived ...

  19. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    A. Gaddi and P. Tropea

    2013-01-01

      Most of the CMS infrastructures at P5 will go through a heavy consolidation-work period during LS1. All systems, from the cryogenic plant of the superconducting magnet to the rack powering in the USC55 counting rooms, from the cooling circuits to the gas distribution, will undergo consolidation work. As announced in the last issue of the CMS Bulletin, we present here one of the consolidation projects of LS1: the installation of a new dry-gas plant for inner detectors inertion. So far the oxygen and humidity suppression inside the CMS Tracker and Pixel volumes were assured by flushing dry nitrogen gas evaporated from a large liquid nitrogen tank. For technical reasons, the maximum flow is limited to less than 100 m3/h and the cost of refilling the tank every two weeks with liquid nitrogen is quite substantial. The new dry-gas plant will supply up to 400 m3/h of dry nitrogen (or the same flow of dry air, during shut-downs) with a comparatively minimal operation cost. It has been evaluated that the...

  20. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Document Server

    Andrea Gaddi

    2010-01-01

    During the last six months, the main activity on the cooling circuit has essentially been preventive maintenance. At each short machine technical stop, a water sample is extracted out of every cooling circuit to measure the induced radioactivity. Soon after, a visual check of the whole detector cooling network is done, looking for water leaks in sensitive locations. Depending on sub-system availability, the main water filters are replaced; the old ones are inspected and sent to the CERN metallurgical lab in case of suspicious sediments. For the coming winter technical stop, a number of corrective maintenance activities and infrastructure consolidation work-packages are foreseen. A few faulty valves, found on the muon system cooling circuit, will be replaced; the cooling gauges for TOTEM and CASTOR, in the CMS Forward region, will be either changed or shielded against the magnetic stray field. The demineralizer cartridges will be replaced as well. New instrumentation will also be installed in the SCX5 PC farm ...

  1. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    A. Gaddi

    The long winter shut-down allows for modifications that will improve the reliability of the detector infrastructures at P5. The annual maintenance of detector services is taking place as well. This means a full stop of water-cooling circuits from November 24th with a gradual restart from mid January 09. The annual maintenance service includes the cleaning of the two SF5 cooling towers, service of the chiller plants on the surface, and the cryogenic plant serving the CMS Magnet. In addition, the overall site power is reduced from 8MW to 2MW, compatible with the switchover to the Swiss power network in winter. Full power will be available again from end of January. Among the modification works planned, the Low Voltage cabinets are being refurbished; doubling the cable sections and replacing the 40A circuit breakers with 60A types. This will reduce the overheating that has been experienced. Moreover, two new LV transformers will be bought and pre-cabled in order to assure a quick swap in case of failure of any...

  2. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    A. Gaddi

    2011-01-01

    During the last winter technical stop, a number of corrective maintenance activities and infrastructure consolidation work-packages were completed. On the surface, the site cooling facility has passed the annual maintenance process that includes the cleaning of the two evaporative cooling towers, the maintenance of the chiller units and the safety checks on the software controls. In parallel, CMS teams, reinforced by PH-DT group personnel, have worked to shield the cooling gauges for TOTEM and CASTOR against the magnetic stray field in the CMS Forward region, to add labels to almost all the valves underground and to clean all the filters in UXC55, USC55 and SCX5. Following the insertion of TOTEM T1 detector, the cooling circuit has been branched off and commissioned. The demineraliser cartridges have been replaced as well, as they were shown to be almost saturated. New instrumentation has been installed in the SCX5 PC farm cooling and ventilation network, in order to monitor the performance of the HVAC system...

  3. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    Andrea Gaddi.

    The various water-cooling circuits ran smoothly over the summer. The overall performance of the cooling system is satisfactory, even if some improvements are possible, concerning the endcap water-cooling and the C6F14 circuits. In particular for the endcap cooling circuit, we aim to lower the water temperature, to provide more margin for RPC detectors. An expert-on-call piquet has been established during the summer global run, assuring the continuous supervision of the installations. An effort has been made to collect and harmonize the existing documentation on the cooling infrastructures at P5. The last six months have seen minor modifications to the electrical power network at P5. Among these, the racks in USC55 for the Tracker and Sniffer systems, which are backed up by the diesel generator in case of power outage, have been equipped with new control boxes to allow a remote restart. Other interventions have concerned the supply of assured power to those installations that are essential for CMS to run eff...

  4. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    Andrea Gaddi

    With all the technical services running, the attention has moved toward the next shutdown that will be spent to perform those modifications needed to enhance the reliability of CMS Infrastructures. Just to give an example for the cooling circuit, a set of re-circulating bypasses will be installed into the TS/CV area to limit the pressure surge when a circuit is partially shut-off. This problem has affected especially the Endcap Muon cooling circuit in the past. Also the ventilation of the UXC55 has to be revisited, allowing the automatic switching to full extraction in case of magnet quench. (Normally 90% of the cavern air is re-circulated by the ventilation system.) Minor modifications will concern the gas distribution, while the DSS action-matrix has to be refined according to the experience gained with operating the detector for a while. On the powering side, some LV power lines have been doubled and the final schematics of the UPS coverage for the counting rooms have been released. The most relevant inte...

  5. Assessing groundwater vulnerability to agrichemical contamination in the Midwest US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkart, M.R.; Kolpin, D.W.; James, D.E.

    1999-01-01

    Agrichemicals (herbicides and nitrate) are significant sources of diffuse pollution to groundwater. Indirect methods are needed to assess the potential for groundwater contamination by diffuse sources because groundwater monitoring is too costly to adequately define the geographic extent of contamination at a regional or national scale. This paper presents examples of the application of statistical, overlay and index, and process-based modeling methods for groundwater vulnerability assessments to a variety of data from the Midwest U.S. The principles for vulnerability assessment include both intrinsic (pedologic, climatologic, and hydrogeologic factors) and specific (contaminant and other anthropogenic factors) vulnerability of a location. Statistical methods use the frequency of contaminant occurrence, contaminant concentration, or contamination probability as a response variable. Statistical assessments are useful for defining the relations among explanatory and response variables whether they define intrinsic or specific vulnerability. Multivariate statistical analyses are useful for ranking variables critical to estimating water quality responses of interest. Overlay and index methods involve intersecting maps of intrinsic and specific vulnerability properties and indexing the variables by applying appropriate weights. Deterministic models use process-based equations to simulate contaminant transport and are distinguished from the other methods in their potential to predict contaminant transport in both space and time. An example of a one-dimensional leaching model linked to a geographic information system (GIS) to define a regional metamodel for contamination in the Midwest is included.

  6. Environmental tracers as a tool in groundwater vulnerability assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przemysław Wachniew

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental tracers are physical properties and chemical components of water whose spatial and temporal differentiation is used to infer information on the pathways and dynamics of water and solutes movement through the environment. The quantitative and qualitative insights into the functioning of groundwater systems derived from tracer observations is useful for the physically based and operational assessments of vulnerability of groundwater quality to human pressures. This tracer-based information concerns identification of the hydraulic connections between the source areas of pollution and groundwater receptors and evaluation of the ability of the unsaturated and saturated zones to delay and attenuate spreading of pollutants. Particularly important are distributions of water transit times which can be inferred from tracer observations by use of the lumped parameter models. The transit time distributions contain information on the lag-times, attenuation and persistence of pollutants in groundwater systems and are a basis for designing various indexes of vulnerability. Despite the advantages of environmental tracers in vulnerability assessment and despite the advances in analytical techniques application of tracers in this field is limited. This work presents the understanding of groundwater vulnerability in the context of risk assessments, explains the basic concepts of the application of the environmental tracers, discusses potential applications of tracers in assessing the intrinsic groundwater vulnerability and briefly presents examples of such applications.

  7. Development of an Automated Security Risk Assessment Methodology Tool for Critical Infrastructures.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, Calvin Dell; Roehrig, Nathaniel S.; Torres, Teresa M.

    2008-12-01

    This document presents the security automated Risk Assessment Methodology (RAM) prototype tool developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). This work leverages SNL's capabilities and skills in security risk analysis and the development of vulnerability assessment/risk assessment methodologies to develop an automated prototype security RAM tool for critical infrastructures (RAM-CITM). The prototype automated RAM tool provides a user-friendly, systematic, and comprehensive risk-based tool to assist CI sector and security professionals in assessing and managing security risk from malevolent threats. The current tool is structured on the basic RAM framework developed by SNL. It is envisioned that this prototype tool will be adapted to meet the requirements of different CI sectors and thereby provide additional capabilities.

  8. Assessing vulnerability to drought: identifying underlying factors across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urquijo, Julia; Gonzalez Tánago, Itziar; Ballesteros, Mario; De Stefano, Lucia

    2015-04-01

    Drought is considered one of the most severe and damaging natural hazards in terms of people and sectors affected and associated losses. Drought is a normal and recurrent climatic phenomenon that occurs worldwide, although its spatial and temporal characteristics vary significantly among climates. In the case of Europe, in the last thirty years, the region has suffered several drought events that have caused estimated economic damages over a €100 billion and have affected almost 20% of its territory and population. In recent years, there has been a growing awareness among experts and authorities of the need to shift from a reactive crisis approach to a drought risk management approach, as well as of the importance of designing and implementing policies, strategies and plans at country and river basin levels to deal with drought. The identification of whom and what is vulnerable to drought is a central aspect of drought risk mitigation and planning and several authors agree that societal vulnerability often determines drought risk more than the actual precipitation shortfalls. The final aim of a drought vulnerability assessment is to identify the underlying sources of drought impact, in order to develop policy options that help to enhance coping capacity and therefore to prevent drought impact. This study identifies and maps factors underlying vulnerability to drought across Europe. The identification of factors influencing vulnerability starts from the analysis of past drought impacts in four European socioeconomic sectors. This analysis, along with an extensive literature review, led to the selection of vulnerability factors that are both relevant and adequate for the European context. Adopting the IPCC model, vulnerability factors were grouped to describe exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The aggregation of these components has resulted in the mapping of vulnerability to drought across Europe at NUTS02 level. Final results have been compared with

  9. Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability Assessment in Industrial Complexes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, H. J.; Lee, D. K.

    2016-12-01

    Climate change has recently caused frequent natural disasters, such as floods, droughts, and heat waves. Such disasters have also increased industrial damages. We must establish climate change adaptation policies to reduce the industrial damages. It is important to make accurate vulnerability assessment to establish climate change adaptation policies. Thus, this study aims at establishing a new index to assess vulnerability level in industrial complexes. Most vulnerability indices have been developed with subjective approaches, such as the Delphi survey and the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP). The subjective approaches rely on the knowledge of a few experts, which provokes the lack of the reliability of the indices. To alleviate the problem, we have designed a vulnerability index incorporating objective approaches. We have investigated 42 industrial complex sites in Republic of Korea (ROK). To calculate weights of variables, we used entropy method as an objective method integrating the Delphi survey as a subjective method. Finally, we found our method integrating both subjective method and objective method could generate result. The integration of the entropy method enables us to assess the vulnerability objectively. Our method will be useful to establish climate change adaptation policies by reducing the uncertainties of the methods based on the subjective approaches.

  10. The Assessment of Comprehensive Vulnerability of Chemical Industrial Park Based on Entropy Method and Matter-element Extension Model

    OpenAIRE

    Yan Jingyi; Zhang Lijing; Tao Gang; Jiang Shu; Guo Hanyu

    2016-01-01

    The paper focuses on studying connotative meaning, evaluation methods and models for chemical industry park based on in-depth analysis of relevant research results in China and abroad, it summarizes and states the feature of menacing vulnerability and structural vulnerability and submits detailed influence factors such as personnel vulnerability, infrastructural vulnerability, environmental vulnerability and the vulnerability of safety managerial defeat. Using vulnerability scoping diagram es...

  11. Assessing and managing freshwater ecosystems vulnerable to environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeler, David G; Allen, Craig R; Birgé, Hannah E; Drakare, Stina; McKie, Brendan G; Johnson, Richard K

    2014-01-01

    Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.

  12. Participatory flood vulnerability assessment: a multi-criteria approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. M. de Brito

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a participatory multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM approach for flood vulnerability assessment while considering the relationships between vulnerability criteria. The applicability of the proposed framework is demonstrated in the municipalities of Lajeado and Estrela, Brazil. The model was co-constructed by 101 experts from governmental organizations, universities, research institutes, NGOs, and private companies. Participatory methods such as the Delphi survey, focus groups, and workshops were applied. A participatory problem structuration, in which the modellers work closely with end users, was used to establish the structure of the vulnerability index. The preferences of each participant regarding the criteria importance were spatially modelled through the analytical hierarchy process (AHP and analytical network process (ANP multi-criteria methods. Experts were also involved at the end of the modelling exercise for validation. The final product is a set of individual and group flood vulnerability maps. Both AHP and ANP proved to be effective for flood vulnerability assessment; however, ANP is preferred as it considers the dependences among criteria. The participatory approach enabled experts to learn from each other and acknowledge different perspectives towards social learning. The findings highlight that to enhance the credibility and deployment of model results, multiple viewpoints should be integrated without forcing consensus.

  13. Participatory flood vulnerability assessment: a multi-criteria approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madruga de Brito, Mariana; Evers, Mariele; Delos Santos Almoradie, Adrian

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents a participatory multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach for flood vulnerability assessment while considering the relationships between vulnerability criteria. The applicability of the proposed framework is demonstrated in the municipalities of Lajeado and Estrela, Brazil. The model was co-constructed by 101 experts from governmental organizations, universities, research institutes, NGOs, and private companies. Participatory methods such as the Delphi survey, focus groups, and workshops were applied. A participatory problem structuration, in which the modellers work closely with end users, was used to establish the structure of the vulnerability index. The preferences of each participant regarding the criteria importance were spatially modelled through the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and analytical network process (ANP) multi-criteria methods. Experts were also involved at the end of the modelling exercise for validation. The final product is a set of individual and group flood vulnerability maps. Both AHP and ANP proved to be effective for flood vulnerability assessment; however, ANP is preferred as it considers the dependences among criteria. The participatory approach enabled experts to learn from each other and acknowledge different perspectives towards social learning. The findings highlight that to enhance the credibility and deployment of model results, multiple viewpoints should be integrated without forcing consensus.

  14. Tool-based Risk Assessment of Cloud Infrastructures as Socio-Technical Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nidd, Michael; Ivanova, Marieta Georgieva; Probst, Christian W.

    2015-01-01

    Assessing risk in cloud infrastructures is difficult. Typical cloud infrastructures contain potentially thousands of nodes that are highly interconnected and dynamic. Another important component is the set of human actors who get access to data and computing infrastructure. The cloud infrastructure...... exercise for cloud infrastructures using the socio-technical model developed in the TRESPASS project; after showing how to model typical components of a cloud infrastructure, we show how attacks are identified on this model and discuss their connection to risk assessment. The technical part of the model...... is extracted automatically from the configuration of the cloud infrastructure, which is especially important for systems so dynamic and complex....

  15. Tool-based Risk Assessment of Cloud Infrastructures as Socio-Technical Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nidd, Michael; Ivanova, Marieta Georgieva; Probst, Christian W.; Tanner, Axel; Ko, Ryan; Choo, Raymond

    2015-01-01

    Assessing risk in cloud infrastructures is difficult. Typical cloud infrastructures contain potentially thousands of nodes that are highly interconnected and dynamic. Another important component is the set of human actors who get access to data and computing infrastructure. The cloud infrastructure

  16. Coastal vulnerability assessment of Puducherry coast, India, using the analytical hierarchical process

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    ManiMurali, R.; Ankita, M.; Amrita, S.; Vethamony, P.

    vulnerability studies as an improvement to the existing methodologies for vulnerability assessment. The paper also encourages the inclusion of socio-economic parameters along with the physical parameters to calculate the coastal vulnerability index using AHP...

  17. An assessment of flood vulnerability on physical development along ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mohammad

    flooding. The paper also recommended the monitoring by authorities, of water levels during the raining season, thereby allowing for the transmission of warning signals to the residents of the flood plains. Key words: Drainage channel, flood, risk assessment, vulnerability. INTRODUCTION. Natural disasters have been a ...

  18. Assessment on Vulnerable Youths Integration to Dar es Salaam ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment on Vulnerable Youths Integration to Dar es Salaam Solid Waste Management for Improvement: Kinondoni Municipality Case. ... Thus, questionnaires and in-depth study were interchangeably employed to probe different stakeholder institutions involved in decentralized MSWM system on general performance in ...

  19. Assessment of climate change and vulnerability of coastal zone of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment of climate change and vulnerability of coastal zone of Ghana using trends in temperature and rainfall. A Ayensu. Abstract. No Abstract. Journal of Applied Science & Technology Vol 9 (1&2) 2004: 21-27. Full Text: EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT.

  20. Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment of the Tarkwa Mining Area ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Groundwater vulnerability assessment to delineate areas that are susceptible to contamination from mining and anthropogenic activities has become an important element for resource management and landuse planning. In view of the extensive mining in the Tarkwa area, quality of groundwater has become an important ...

  1. Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment of the Tarkwa Mining Area ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael

    2017-06-01

    Jun 1, 2017 ... Groundwater vulnerability assessment to delineate areas that are susceptible to contamination from mining and anthropogenic activities has become an important element for resource management and landuse planning. In view of the extensive mining in the Tarkwa area, quality of groundwater has ...

  2. Remote Sensing and GIS Assessment of Flood Vulnerability of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Lokoja, the Kogi state capital, is located at the Niger-Benue confluence. Hazards erupt when human activities in the confluence area are not properly managed. This article uses the Remote Sensing and GIS technique to assess the flood vulnerability zones of the town using the bench mark minimum and maximum water ...

  3. Seismic vulnerability assessment of a continuous steel box girder ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Tae-Hyung Lee

    2018-02-07

    Feb 7, 2018 ... indicate that the bridge structures equipped with seismic isolation devices (e.g. LRBs) significantly mitigated the damages due to earthquakes. Keywords. Continuous steel box girder bridge; fragility curves; seismic vulnerability assessment; damage state; nonlinear dynamic analysis; lead rubber bearing. 1.

  4. Evaluation of models for assessing groundwater vulnerability to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper examines, based on a review and synthesis of available material, the presently most applied models for groundwater vulnerability assessment mapping. The appraoches and the pros and cons of each method are evaluated in terms of both the conditions of their implementation and the result obtained. The paper ...

  5. Reconsidering the habitats assessment : the compatibility of the habitats assessment with green infrastructure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kistenkas, F.H.

    2014-01-01

    Traditional understandings of the Natura 2000 habitats assessment may not be fully compatible with modern sustainability and EU Green Infrastructure demands. One criterion testing might obstruct such a green infrastructure and its sustainable multi-functionality. Also given the latest judgement of

  6. Resilience, Vulnerability and Residual Threat: An Assessment from Indian Sundarban

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, T.

    2016-12-01

    The estuarine islands within Indian Sundarban are extremely vulnerable due to climate change, erosion, flooding and increasing population pressure. Around 4.6 million people are living under constant threat of climatic shocks, affecting their farm based economy and dependency on forest resources for their livelihood. This paper attempts to focus on the dynamics of system's resilience in the backdrop of higher level of vulnerability. Globally the assessment of island vulnerability is generally more focused towards the climate change impacts, rather than taking into account other determining drivers with proper weightage. Three estuarine islands namely Sagar, Ghoramara and Mousani at the western part of Indian Sundarban Delta (ISD) have been chosen for this study to derive the indicator based scoring method using the household survey data from twenty seven (27) sampled `Mouza' (lowest administrative boundary; village) with cluster random sampling. Vulnerability and resilience of these islands have been calculated using the indicators like housing condition, electrification, population density, accretion, adult secondary education level, percentage of people `Below Poverty Line' (BPL) based on per capita income. Residual threats for these islands have been obtained by subtracting the score of resilience and vulnerability of the system. Result suggests that all these islands are in less resilient condition to combat the negative impact of the influencing factors. Sapkhali, Ghoramara, Bankimnagar, Shibpur and Baliara are becoming sensitive from excess residual threats. This study is an initiation for identifying the thrust areas need to address with effective policy adaptation, necessary to minimize the existing vulnerable conditions in these islands. Key words: Vulnerability, Resilience, Residual threat, Indian Sundarban

  7. Spatial vulnerability assessments by regression kriging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pásztor, László; Laborczi, Annamária; Takács, Katalin; Szatmári, Gábor

    2016-04-01

    information representing IEW or GRP forming environmental factors were taken into account to support the spatial inference of the locally experienced IEW frequency and measured GRP values respectively. An efficient spatial prediction methodology was applied to construct reliable maps, namely regression kriging (RK) using spatially exhaustive auxiliary data on soil, geology, topography, land use and climate. RK divides the spatial inference into two parts. Firstly the deterministic component of the target variable is determined by a regression model. The residuals of the multiple linear regression analysis represent the spatially varying but dependent stochastic component, which are interpolated by kriging. The final map is the sum of the two component predictions. Application of RK also provides the possibility of inherent accuracy assessment. The resulting maps are characterized by global and local measures of its accuracy. Additionally the method enables interval estimation for spatial extension of the areas of predefined risk categories. All of these outputs provide useful contribution to spatial planning, action planning and decision making. Acknowledgement: Our work was partly supported by the Hungarian National Scientific Research Foundation (OTKA, Grant No. K105167).

  8. Groundwater vulnerability assessment of the Cork Harbour area, SW Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, A. R.; Milenic, D.

    2007-11-01

    In the Cork Harbour area of SW Ireland, high yield karst and intergranular gravel aquifers are extremely vulnerable to pollution from a variety of sources, mainly due to the limited protection afforded by the thin cover of low permeability glacial and alluvial overburden. The main potential sources of pollution are due to rapid urbanisation of the Cork city area and its attendant infrastructure, and increased industrialisation in the area, with numerous new industries, particularly pharmaceutical and chemical industries, located around Cork Harbour. Other potential sources of pollution are a number of landfills in the area and an oil refinery near the mouth of Cork Harbour. Traditional agricultural sources of pollution also exist, due to increased use of chemical fertilisers. Finally, the susceptibility to saline intrusion of the karst and gravel aquifers around Cork Harbour is high due to the long coastline of the harbour and the low-lying nature of the karst synclines with their superimposed buried valleys.

  9. Assessment of Socioeconomic Vulnerability to Floods in the Bâsca Chiojdului Catchment Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    REMUS PRĂVĂLIE

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological risk phenomena such as floods are among the most costly natural disasters worldwide, effects consisting of socioeconomic damages and deaths. The Bâsca Chiojdului catchment area, by its morphometric and hydrographic peculiarities, is prone to generate these hydrological risk phenomena, so there is a high vulnerability in the socioeconomic elements. This paper is focused on the identification of the main socioeconomic elements vulnerable to hydrological risk phenomena such as floods, based on the assessment of their manifestation potential. Thus, following the delimitation of areas with the highest flood occurrence potential (susceptibility to floods, major socioeconomic factors existing in the basin, considering human settlements (constructions, transport infrastructure, and agricultural areas (the most important category, were superimposed. Results showed a high vulnerability for all three exposed socioeconomic elements especially in valley sectors, of which household structures were the most vulnerable, given both their importance and the high number of areas highly exposed to floods (approximately 2,500 houses and outbuildings, out of a total of about 10,250, intersect the most susceptible area to floods in the study area.

  10. The effects of `non-infrastructural' measures to improve the safety of vulnerable road users : a review of international findings, prepared for the OECD Scientific Expert Group "Safety of vulnerable road users".

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagenzieker, M.P.

    1997-01-01

    This report reviews the evaluated effects of what can be called `non-infrastructural measures' to improve the safety of vulnerable road users. Three selected areas are discussed: education and training, measures to enhance visibility and conspecuity, and protective devices for bicyclists. Other

  11. Infrastructure effects on estuarine wetlands increase their vulnerability to sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Jose; Saco, Patricia; Sandi, Steven; Saintilan, Neil; Riccardi, Gerardo

    2017-04-01

    At the regional and global scales, coastal management and planning for future sea level rise scenarios is typically supported by modelling tools that predict the expected inundation extent. These tools rely on a number of simplifying assumptions that, in some cases, may result in important miscalculation of the inundation effects. One of such cases is estuarine wetlands, where vegetation strongly depends on both the magnitude and the timing of inundation. Many coastal wetlands display flow restrictions due to infrastructure or drainage works, which produce alterations to the inundation patterns that can not be captured by conventional models. In this contribution we explore the effects of flow restrictions on inundation patterns under sea level rise conditions in estuarine wetlands. We use a spatially-distributed dynamic wetland ecogeomorphological model that not only incorporates the effects of flow restrictions due to culverts, bridges and weirs as well as vegetation, but also considers that vegetation changes as a consequence of increasing inundation. We also consider the ability of vegetation to capture sediment and produce accretion. We apply our model to an estuarine wetland in Australia and show that our model predicts a much faster wetland loss due to sea level rise than conventional approaches.

  12. Environmental vulnerability assessment using Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process based model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sahoo, Satiprasad [School of Water Resources, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur (India); Dhar, Anirban, E-mail: anirban.dhar@gmail.com [Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur (India); Kar, Amlanjyoti [Central Ground Water Board, Bhujal Bhawan, Faridabad, Haryana (India)

    2016-01-15

    Environmental management of an area describes a policy for its systematic and sustainable environmental protection. In the present study, regional environmental vulnerability assessment in Hirakud command area of Odisha, India is envisaged based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process method (Grey–AHP) using integrated remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Grey–AHP combines the advantages of classical analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and grey clustering method for accurate estimation of weight coefficients. It is a new method for environmental vulnerability assessment. Environmental vulnerability index (EVI) uses natural, environmental and human impact related factors, e.g., soil, geology, elevation, slope, rainfall, temperature, wind speed, normalized difference vegetation index, drainage density, crop intensity, agricultural DRASTIC value, population density and road density. EVI map has been classified into four environmental vulnerability zones (EVZs) namely: ‘low’, ‘moderate’ ‘high’, and ‘extreme’ encompassing 17.87%, 44.44%, 27.81% and 9.88% of the study area, respectively. EVI map indicates that the northern part of the study area is more vulnerable from an environmental point of view. EVI map shows close correlation with elevation. Effectiveness of the zone classification is evaluated by using grey clustering method. General effectiveness is in between “better” and “common classes”. This analysis demonstrates the potential applicability of the methodology. - Highlights: • Environmental vulnerability zone identification based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) • The effectiveness evaluation by means of a grey clustering method with support from AHP • Use of grey approach eliminates the excessive dependency on the experience of experts.

  13. Regional risk assessment for contaminated sites part 1: vulnerability assessment by multicriteria decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zabeo, A; Pizzol, L; Agostini, P; Critto, A; Giove, S; Marcomini, A

    2011-11-01

    As highlighted in the EU Soil Communication, local contamination is one of the main soil threats and it is often related to present and past industrial activities which left a legacy of a high number of contaminated sites in Europe. These contaminated sites can be harmful to many different receptors according to their sensitivity/susceptibility to contamination, and specific vulnerability evaluations are needed in order to manage this widely spread environmental issue. In this paper a novel comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework to assess regional receptor susceptibility to contaminated site is presented. The developed methodology, which combines multi criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and spatial analysis, can be applied to different receptors recognized as relevant for regional assessment. In order to characterize each receptor, picked parameters significant for the estimation of the vulnerability to contaminated sites have been selected, normalized and aggregated by means of multi criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques. The developed MCDA methodology, based on the Choquet integral, allows to include expert judgments for the elicitation of synergic and conflicting effects between involved criteria and is applied to all the geographical objects representing the identified receptors. To test the potential of the vulnerability methodology, it has been applied to a specific case study area in the upper Silesia region of Poland where it proved to be reliable and consistent with the environmental experts' expected results. The vulnerability assessment results indicate that groundwater is the most vulnerable receptor characterized by a wide area with vulnerability scores belonging to the highest vulnerability class. As far as the other receptors are concerned, human health and surface water are characterized by quite homogeneous vulnerability scores falling in the medium-high vulnerability classes, while protected areas resulted to be the less

  14. Flood Risk Assessment on Selected Critical Infrastructure in Kota Marudu Town, Sabah, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayog Janice Lynn

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the risk of flood on selected critical infrastructure in a flood-prone catchment in Sabah, Malaysia. Kota Marudu, located in the Bandau floodplain, one of the Sabah’s northern water catchments, was selected as the study site due to its frequent flood occurrence and large floodplain coverage. Two of its largest rivers, namely Sungai Bongon and Sungai Bandau, tends to flood during rainy season and cause temporary displacements of thousands of people living in the floodplain. A total of 362 respondents participated in the questionnaire survey in order to gather information on historical flood occurrence. Three flood depth groups were determined, which are 1 less than 0.3 meter, 2 0.3 – 0.6 meter and 3 more than 0.6 meter, while three categories of critical infrastructure were defined, namely transportation system, communication system and buildings. It is found that the transportation system encounters the most severe impact as flood inundation increases, where 92% of the respondents believe that the transportation access should be abandoned when flood depth is more than 0.6m. The findings of this study will be used for detailed risk assessment, specifically on the vulnerability of the critical infrastructures to flood in this floodplain.

  15. Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    As part of the Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) program, the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has prepared this draft report exploring a new methodology for climate change vulnerability assessments using San Francisco Bay’s salt marsh and mudflat ecosystems as a demonstration. N/A

  16. Complexities in Assessing Structural Health of Civil Infrastructures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdullah Al-Hussein

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The complexity in the health assessment of civil infrastructures, as it evolves over a long period of time, is briefly discussed. A simple problem can become very complex based on the current needs, sophistication required, and the technological advancements. To meet the current needs of locating defect spots and their severity accurately and efficiently, infrastructures are represented by finite elements. To increase the implementation potential, the stiffness parameters of all the elements are identified and tracked using only few noise-contaminated dynamic responses measured at small part of the infrastructure. To extract the required information, Kalman filter concept is integrated with other numerical schemes. An unscented Kalman filter (UKF concept is developed for highly nonlinear dynamic systems. It is denoted as 3D UKF-UI-WGI. The basic UKF concept is improved in several ways. Instead of using one long duration time-history in one global iteration, very short duration time-histories and multiple global iterations with weight factors are used to locate the defect spot more accurately and efficiently. The capabilities of the procedure are demonstrated with the help of two informative examples. The proposed procedure is much superior to the extended Kalman filter-based procedures developed by the team earlier.

  17. Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moss, Richard H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Blohm, Andrew [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Delgado, Alison [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Henriques, Justin J. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Malone, Elizabeth L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-02-01

    U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Departments of Energy and Defense. The paper provides a framework of steps for climate vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. In a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change.

  18. Automating Flood Hazard Mapping Methods for Near Real-time Storm Surge Inundation and Vulnerability Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Gallagher, D.

    2015-12-01

    Storm surge has enough destructive power to damage buildings and infrastructure, erode beaches, and threaten human life across large geographic areas, hence posing the greatest threat of all the hurricane hazards. The United States Gulf of Mexico has proven vulnerable to hurricanes as it has been hit by some of the most destructive hurricanes on record. With projected rises in sea level and increases in hurricane activity, there is a need to better understand the associated risks for disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response. GIS has become a critical tool in enhancing disaster planning, risk assessment, and emergency response by communicating spatial information through a multi-layer approach. However, there is a need for a near real-time method of identifying areas with a high risk of being impacted by storm surge. Research was conducted alongside Baron, a private industry weather enterprise, to facilitate automated modeling and visualization of storm surge inundation and vulnerability on a near real-time basis. This research successfully automated current flood hazard mapping techniques using a GIS framework written in a Python programming environment, and displayed resulting data through an Application Program Interface (API). Data used for this methodology included high resolution topography, NOAA Probabilistic Surge model outputs parsed from Rich Site Summary (RSS) feeds, and the NOAA Census tract level Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI). The development process required extensive data processing and management to provide high resolution visualizations of potential flooding and population vulnerability in a timely manner. The accuracy of the developed methodology was assessed using Hurricane Isaac as a case study, which through a USGS and NOAA partnership, contained ample data for statistical analysis. This research successfully created a fully automated, near real-time method for mapping high resolution storm surge inundation and vulnerability for the

  19. Energy Vulnerability Assessment for the US Pacific Islands. Technical Appendix 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fesharaki, F.; Rizer, J.P.; Greer, L.S.

    1994-05-01

    The study, Energy Vulnerability Assessment of the US Pacific Islands, was mandated by the Congress of the United States as stated in House Resolution 776-220 of 1992, Section 1406. The resolution states that the US Secretary of Energy shall conduct a study of the implications of the unique vulnerabilities of the insular areas to an oil supply disruption. Such study shall outline how the insular areas shall gain access to vital oil supplies during times of national emergency. The resolution defines insular areas as the US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and Palau. The US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are not included in this report. The US Department of Energy (USDOE) has broadened the scope of the study contained in the House Resolution to include emergency preparedness and response strategies which would reduce vulnerability to an oil supply disruption as well as steps to ameliorate adverse economic consequences. This includes a review of alternative energy technologies with respect to their potential for reducing dependence on imported petroleum. USDOE has outlined the four tasks of the energy vulnerability assessment as the following: (1) for each island, determine crude oil and refined product demand/supply, and characterize energy and economic infrastructure; (2) forecast global and regional oil trade flow patterns, energy demand/supply, and economic activities; (3) formulate oil supply disruption scenarios and ascertain the general and unique vulnerabilities of these islands to oil supply disruptions; and (4) outline emergency preparedness and response options to secure oil supplies in the short run, and reduce dependence on imported oil in the longer term.

  20. A Literature review of life cycle assessment for bridge infrastructure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Du, Guangli

    2010-01-01

    Currently, the whole world is confronted with great challenges related to environmental issues. As a fundamentalinfrastructure in transport networks, railway bridges are responsible for numerous material and energy consumption throughtheir life cycle, which in turn leads to significant...... environmental burdens. However, present management of railway bridgeinfrastructures is mainly focused on the technical and financial aspects, whereas the environmental assessment is rarely integrated. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is deemed as a systematic method for also assessing the environmental impact...... of products and systems, but its application in railway bridge infrastructures is rare. Very limited literature and research studies are available in this area. In order to incorporate the implementation of LCA into railway bridges and set new design criteria, this article performs an elaborate literature...

  1. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Idaho National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christopher P. Ischay; Ernest L. Fossum; Polly C. Buotte; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Alexander Peterson

    2014-10-01

    The University of Idaho (UI) was asked to participate in the development of a climate change vulnerability assessment for Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This report describes the outcome of that assessment. The climate change happening now, due in large part to human activities, is expected to continue in the future. UI and INL used a common framework for assessing vulnerability that considers exposure (future climate change), sensitivity (system or component responses to climate), impact (exposure combined with sensitivity), and adaptive capacity (capability of INL to modify operations to minimize climate change impacts) to assess vulnerability. Analyses of climate change (exposure) revealed that warming that is ongoing at INL will continue in the coming decades, with increased warming in later decades and under scenarios of greater greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of precipitation are more uncertain, with multi model means exhibiting somewhat wetter conditions and more wet days per year. Additional impacts relevant to INL include estimates of more burned area and increased evaporation and transpiration, leading to reduced soil moisture and plant growth.

  2. Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment of House Constructions in Himalayas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ila Gupta,

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available The entire Himalayan range is highly prone to earthquake s and the latest Kashmir earthquake (October 08, 2005 has once again drawn our attention to the highly vulnerable Himalayan settlements. Narcndranagar block of the Himalayan state of Uttaranchal lies in seismic zone IV of the seismic zoning map of India. Like in other hilly areas Narendranagar block also witnessed the traditional practice of house construction being replaced by modern construction materials and practices without the knowledge of earthquake resistant techniques rendering the present buildings more vulnerable to earthquakes. The objective of this paper is to assess the vulnerability of the buildings so that corrective measures can be taken to minimize the destruction during future earthquakes. Types of buildings observed in the entire block with different combinations of materials and their earthquake behaviours are explained. The existing structures are grouped into vulnerability categories Vl , V2 and V3 as per the descriptions provided in the MSK (Medvedev - Sponheaer - Karnik Intensity Scale. Damage estimation for a hypothetical earthquake is carried out for the Narcndranagar block. Conclusions and recommendations suggesting use of such studies in all earth quake prone areas of the Trans Himalayan region arc provided.

  3. Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment of the Pingtung Plain in Southern Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Ching-Ping; Jang, Cheng-Shin; Liang, Cheng-Wei; Chen, Jui-Sheng

    2016-11-23

    In the Pingtung Plain of southern Taiwan, elevated levels of NO₃(-)-N in groundwater have been reported. Therefore, efforts for assessing groundwater vulnerability are required as part of the critical steps to prevent and control groundwater pollution. This study makes a groundwater vulnerability assessment for the Pingtung Plain using an improved overlay and index-based DRASTIC model. The improvement of the DRASTIC model is achieved by reassigning the weighting coefficients of the factors in this model with the help of a discriminant analysis statistical method. The analytical results obtained from the improved DRASTIC model provide a reliable prediction for use in groundwater vulnerability assessment to nitrate pollution and can correctly identify the groundwater protection zones in the Pingtung Plain. Moreover, the results of the sensitivity analysis conducted for the seven parameters in the improved DRASTIC model demonstrate that the aquifer media (A) is the most sensitive factor when the nitrate-N concentration is below 2.5 mg/L. For the cases where the nitrate-N concentration is above 2.5 mg/L, the aquifer media (A) and net recharge (R) are the two most important factors.

  4. A comparison of data-driven groundwater vulnerability assessment methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorichetta, Alessandro; Ballabio, Cristiano; Masetti, Marco; Robinson, Gilpin R; Sterlacchini, Simone

    2013-01-01

    Increasing availability of geo-environmental data has promoted the use of statistical methods to assess groundwater vulnerability. Nitrate is a widespread anthropogenic contaminant in groundwater and its occurrence can be used to identify aquifer settings vulnerable to contamination. In this study, multivariate Weights of Evidence (WofE) and Logistic Regression (LR) methods, where the response variable is binary, were used to evaluate the role and importance of a number of explanatory variables associated with nitrate sources and occurrence in groundwater in the Milan District (central part of the Po Plain, Italy). The results of these models have been used to map the spatial variation of groundwater vulnerability to nitrate in the region, and we compare the similarities and differences of their spatial patterns and associated explanatory variables. We modify the standard WofE method used in previous groundwater vulnerability studies to a form analogous to that used in LR; this provides a framework to compare the results of both models and reduces the effect of sampling bias on the results of the standard WofE model. In addition, a nonlinear Generalized Additive Model has been used to extend the LR analysis. Both approaches improved discrimination of the standard WofE and LR models, as measured by the c-statistic. Groundwater vulnerability probability outputs, based on rank-order classification of the respective model results, were similar in spatial patterns and identified similar strong explanatory variables associated with nitrate source (population density as a proxy for sewage systems and septic sources) and nitrate occurrence (groundwater depth). © 2013, The Author(s). Groundwater © 2013, National Ground Water Association.

  5. Network Interdependency Modeling for Risk Assessment on Built Infrastructure Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-01

    INCOSE). Hokkanen, J., & Salminen, P. (1997). Choosing a solid waste management system using multicriteria decision analysis . European Journal of...inoperability model (IIM) in the analysis of built infrastructure systems. Previous applications of the IIM characterized infrastructure at the national...infrastructure risk, as a result of interdependency effects and component decay, changes over time. Such an analysis provides insight to

  6. Assessment of Urban Infrastructure Quality and User Satisfaction in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Analyse-it ® v4.5 statistical software for Microsoft excel was used to carry out all statistical analysis. Seven (7) components of urban infrastructure were identified to sustain residential properties in the study area and the varied conditions of each of these infrastructure was presented. The overall quality of urban infrastructure ...

  7. Free and Open Source Software for land degradation vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imbrenda, Vito; Calamita, Giuseppe; Coluzzi, Rosa; D'Emilio, Mariagrazia; Lanfredi, Maria Teresa; Perrone, Angela; Ragosta, Maria; Simoniello, Tiziana

    2013-04-01

    Nowadays the role of FOSS software in scientific research is becoming increasingly important. Besides the important issues of reduced costs for licences, legality and security there are many other reasons that make FOSS software attractive. Firstly, making the code opened is a warranty of quality permitting to thousands of developers around the world to check the code and fix bugs rather than rely on vendors claims. FOSS communities are usually enthusiastic about helping other users for solving problems and expand or customize software (flexibility). Most important for this study, the interoperability allows to combine the user-friendly QGIS with the powerful GRASS-GIS and the richness of statistical methods of R in order to process remote sensing data and to perform geo-statistical analysis in one only environment. This study is focused on the land degradation (i.e. the reduction in the capacity of the land to provide ecosystem goods and services and assure its functions) and in particular on the estimation of the vulnerability levels in order to suggest appropriate policy actions to reduce/halt land degradation impacts, using the above mentioned software. The area investigated is the Basilicata Region (Southern Italy) where large natural areas are mixed with anthropized areas. To identify different levels of vulnerability we adopted the Environmentally Sensitive Areas (ESAs) model, based on the combination of indicators related to soil, climate, vegetation and anthropic stress. Such indicators were estimated by using the following data-sources: - Basilicata Region Geoportal to assess soil vulnerability; - DESERTNET2 project to evaluate potential vegetation vulnerability and climate vulnerability; - NDVI-MODIS satellite time series (2000-2010) with 250m resolution, available as 16-day composite from the NASA LP DAAC to characterize the dynamic component of vegetation; - Agricultural Census data 2010, Corine Land Cover 2006 and morphological information to assess

  8. Urban growth patterns in major Southeast Asian cities: Toward exposure mapping and vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandapaka, Pradeep; Kamarajugedda, Shankar A.; Lo, Edmond Y. M.

    2017-04-01

    Southeast Asia (SEA) is undergoing rapid urbanization, with urban population percentage increasing from 32% in 1990 to 48% in 2015. It is projected that by the year 2040, urban regions in SEA account for 60% of its total population. The region is home to 600 million people, with many densely populated cities, including megacities such as Jakarta, Bangkok, and Manila. The region has more than 20,000 islands, and many cities lie on coastal low-lands and floodplains. These geographical characteristics together with the increasing population, infrastructure growth, and changing climate makes the region highly vulnerable to natural hazards. This study assessed urban growth dynamics in major (defined as population exceeding 1 million) SEA cities using remotely sensed night-time lights (NTL) data. A recently proposed brightness gradient approach was applied on 21 years (1992-2012) of NTL annual composites to derive core-urban (CU) and peri-urban (PU) regions within each city. The study also assessed the sensitivity of above extracted urban categories to different NTL thresholds. The temporal trends in CU and PU regions were quantified, and compared with trends in socio-economic indicators. The spatial expansion of CU and PU regions were found to depend on geographical constraints and socio-economic factors. Quantification of urban growth spatial-temporal patterns, as conducted here contributes towards the understanding of exposure and vulnerability of people and infrastructures to natural hazards, as well as the evolving trends for assessment under projected urbanization conditions. This will underpin better risk assessment efforts for present and future planning.

  9. Full annual cycle climate change vulnerability assessment for migratory birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culp, Leah A.; Cohen, Emily B.; Scarpignato, Amy L.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Marra, Peter P.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is a serious challenge faced by all plant and animal species. Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are one method to assess risk and are increasingly used as a tool to inform management plans. Migratory animals move across regions and continents during their annual cycles where they are exposed to diverse climatic conditions. Climate change during any period and in any region of the annual cycle could influence survival, reproduction, or the cues used to optimize timing of migration. Therefore, CCVAs for migratory animals best estimate risk when they include climate exposure during the entire annual cycle. We developed a CCVA incorporating the full annual cycle and applied this method to 46 species of migratory birds breeding in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes (UMGL) region of the United States. Our methodology included background risk, climate change exposure × climate sensitivity, adaptive capacity to climate change, and indirect effects of climate change. We compiled information about migratory connectivity between breeding and stationary non-breeding areas using literature searches and U.S. Geological Survey banding and re-encounter data. Climate change exposure (temperature and moisture) was assessed using UMGL breeding season climate and winter climate from non-breeding regions for each species. Where possible, we focused on non-breeding regions known to be linked through migratory connectivity. We ranked 10 species as highly vulnerable to climate change and two as having low vulnerability. The remaining 34 species were ranked as moderately vulnerable. In general, including non-breeding data provided more robust results that were highly individualistic by species. Two species were found to be highly vulnerable throughout their annual cycle. Projected drying will have the greatest effect during the non-breeding season for species overwintering in Mexico and the Caribbean. Projected temperature increases will have the greatest

  10. Assessment of Logistics effects from Transport Infrastructure Investments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holvad, Torben; Salling, Kim Bang

    2004-01-01

    Evaluation methodologies in Denmark and in a number of other European countries have over the years had a primary focus on person-related issues within transport planning. Thus issues relating to evaluation for freight transport have lacked behind and have not had the attention they deserve...... on the basis of the importance of this research area from a societal and economic viewpoint. This paper aims to identify a framework for assessment of logistic effects from transport infrastructure investment such that these effects can be integrated into the appraisal methodologies. Particular attention...... involves: (1) definition and analysis of logistic-goods effects; (2) Empirical examples of logistic-goods effects; (3) Outline of a modelling study framework including formulation of strategic models for logistic-goods effects. The paper first deals in some detail with the theoretical arguments regarding...

  11. Assessing internal biophysical vulnerability to landslide hazards - a nested catchment approach: Xiangxi Watershed / Three Gorges Reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiegand, Matthias; Seeber, Christoph; Hartmann, Heike; Xiang, Wei; King, Lorenz

    2010-05-01

    . Dwellings and road infrastructure, chosen as high priorities, are captured based on various data like: high resolution satellite imagery, topographic information and field investigation. Currently demographic data is available only at administrative county level - therefore buildings will serve as spatial proxy for population density. Elements at risk will be classified into categories and susceptibility factors will be identified for sampled groups. The envisaged model defines the susceptibility of a certain element at risk not only by the element itself - it assumes that the specific susceptibility is also strongly influenced by the particular surroundings. The susceptibility of a certain building, as for instance, will be defined by the structure type and condition, and in addition or as proxy, specific site characteristics like: slope angle and aspect, soil type and erodibility, lithology, proximity to streams, proximity to the Three Gorges reservoir, depth to groundwater, land use change and dissect intensity, if feasible. Each factor with potential influence on susceptibility will go through a GIS based factor weighting procedure as part of the quantitative vulnerability model. Holistic, "cross scale integrated" vulnerability assessment models need to integrate environmental, social/ cultural and economic aspects. Therefore the proposed vulnerability assessment model must be seen as a starting point for a conceptual framework, and might serve as stimulus to local disaster- and resources management systems. Furthermore the GIS based model enables the opportunity to be linked and refined within the local spatial data infrastructure initiatives.

  12. A Contamination Vulnerability Assessment for the Sacramento Area Groundwater Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moran, J E; Hudson, G B; Eaton, G F; Leif, R

    2004-03-10

    In response to concerns expressed by the California Legislature and the citizenry of the State of California, the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB), implemented a program to assess groundwater quality, and provide a predictive capability for identifying areas that are vulnerable to contamination. The program was initiated in response to concern over public supply well closures due to contamination by chemicals such as MtBE from gasoline, and solvents from industrial operations. As a result of this increased awareness regarding groundwater quality, the Supplemental Report of the 1999 Budget Act mandated the SWRCB to develop a comprehensive ambient groundwater-monitoring plan, and led to the initiation of the Ambient Groundwater Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The primary objective of the GAMA Program is to assess the water quality and to predict the relative susceptibility to contamination of groundwater resources throughout the state of California. Under the GAMA program, scientists from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) collaborate with the SWRCB, the U.S. Geological Survey, the California Department of Health Services (DHS), and the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to implement the groundwater assessment program in cooperation with local water purveyors. In 2001 and 2002, LLNL carried out this vulnerability study in the groundwater basin of Sacramento suburban area, located to the north of the American River and to the east of the Sacramento River. The goal of the study is to provide a probabilistic assessment of the relative vulnerability of groundwater used for the public water supply to contamination from surface sources. This assessment of relative contamination vulnerability is made based on the results of two types of analyses that are not routinely carried out at public water supply wells: ultra low-level measurement of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and groundwater age dating (using the tritium-helium-3

  13. 75 FR 51806 - Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-23

    ...-0701] Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices AGENCY...-day public comment period for the draft document titled, ``Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment... utilities to assess their vulnerability to future climate change. The report is intended to illustrate the...

  14. 76 FR 55673 - Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-08

    ... AGENCY Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach... period for the draft documents titled, Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready... Partnership (EPA/600/R-11/ 058a) and Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries...

  15. Assessing Embodied Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Infrastructure Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Krantz

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Greenhouse gas (GHG emissions from construction processes are a serious concern globally. Of the several approaches taken to assess emissions, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA based methods do not just take into account the construction phase, but consider all phases of the life cycle of the construction. However, many current LCA approaches make general assumptions regarding location and effects, which do not do justice to the inherent dynamics of normal construction projects. This study presents a model to assess the embodied energy and associated GHG emissions, which is specifically adapted to address the dynamics of infrastructure construction projects. The use of the model is demonstrated on the superstructure of a prefabricated bridge. The findings indicate that Building Information Models/Modeling (BIM and Discrete Event Simulation (DES can be used to efficiently generate project-specific data, which is needed for estimating the embodied energy and associated GHG emissions in construction settings. This study has implications for the advancement of LCA-based methods (as well as project management as a way of assessing embodied energy and associated GHG emissions related to construction.

  16. A flood vulnerability index for coastal cities and its use in assessing climate change impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balica, S.F.; Wright, N.G.; Van der Meulen, F.

    2012-01-01

    Worldwide, there is a need to enhance our understanding of vulnerability and to develop methodologies and tools to assess vulnerability. One of the most important goals of assessing coastal flood vulnerability, in particular, is to create a readily understandable link between the theoretical

  17. Vulnerability assessment and risk perception: the case of the Arieş River Middle Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozunu, Al.; Botezan, C.

    2012-04-01

    Vulnerability assessment is influenced by a number of factors, including risk perception. This paper investigates the vulnerability of people living in the middle basin of the Aries river region, a former mining area, to natural and technologic hazards. The mining industry lead to significant environmental changes, which combined with the social problems caused by its decline (high unemployment rate, low income and old age) raised the level of the vulnerability in the area. This case study is unique, as it includes an evaluation of risk perception and its influence on the social vulnerability and resilience of local communities to disasters. Key words: vulnerability assessment, natural hazards, social vulnerability, risk perception

  18. Assessing vulnerability of marine bird populations to offshore wind farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furness, Robert W; Wade, Helen M; Masden, Elizabeth A

    2013-04-15

    Offshore wind farms may affect bird populations through collision mortality and displacement. Given the pressures to develop offshore wind farms, there is an urgent need to assess population-level impacts on protected marine birds. Here we refine an approach to assess aspects of their ecology that influence population vulnerability to wind farm impacts, also taking into account the conservation importance of each species. Flight height appears to be a key factor influencing collision mortality risk but improved data on flight heights of marine birds are needed. Collision index calculations identify populations of gulls, white-tailed eagles, northern gannets and skuas as of particularly high concern in Scottish waters. Displacement index calculations identify populations of divers and common scoters as most vulnerable to population-level impacts of displacement, but these are likely to be less evident than impacts of collision mortality. The collision and displacement indices developed here for Scottish marine bird populations could be applied to populations elsewhere, and this approach will help in identifying likely impacts of future offshore wind farms on marine birds and prioritising monitoring programmes, at least until data on macro-avoidance rates become available. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Development of a security vulnerability assessment process for the RAMCAP chemical sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, David A; Fuller, Brad; Hazzan, Michael; Jones, J William

    2007-04-11

    The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Directorate of Information Analysis & Infrastructure Protection (IAIP), Protective Services Division (PSD), contracted the American Society of Mechanical Engineers Innovative Technologies Institute, LLC (ASME ITI, LLC) to develop guidance on Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP). AcuTech Consulting Group (AcuTech) has been contracted by ASME ITI, LLC, to provide assistance by facilitating the development of sector-specific guidance on vulnerability analysis and management for critical asset protection for the chemical manufacturing, petroleum refining, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) sectors. This activity involves two key tasks for these three sectors: Development of a screening to supplement DHS understanding of the assets that are important to protect against terrorist attack and to prioritize the activities. Development of a standard security vulnerability analysis (SVA) framework for the analysis of consequences, vulnerabilities, and threats. This project involves the cooperative effort of numerous leading industrial companies, industry trade associations, professional societies, and security and safety consultants representative of those sectors. Since RAMCAP is a voluntary program for ongoing risk management for homeland security, sector coordinating councils are being asked to assist in communicating the goals of the program and in encouraging participation. The RAMCAP project will have a profound and positive impact on all sectors as it is fully developed, rolled-out and implemented. It will help define the facilities and operations of national and regional interest for the threat of terrorism, define standardized methods for analyzing consequences, vulnerabilities, and threats, and describe best security practices of the industry. This paper will describe the results of the security vulnerability analysis process that was developed and field tested for the chemical manufacturing

  20. A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hare, Jonathan A; Morrison, Wendy E; Nelson, Mark W; Stachura, Megan M; Teeters, Eric J; Griffis, Roger B; Alexander, Michael A; Scott, James D; Alade, Larry; Bell, Richard J; Chute, Antonie S; Curti, Kiersten L; Curtis, Tobey H; Kircheis, Daniel; Kocik, John F; Lucey, Sean M; McCandless, Camilla T; Milke, Lisa M; Richardson, David E; Robillard, Eric; Walsh, Harvey J; McManus, M Conor; Marancik, Katrin E; Griswold, Carolyn A

    2016-01-01

    Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform

  1. A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hare, Jonathan A.; Morrison, Wendy E.; Nelson, Mark W.; Stachura, Megan M.; Teeters, Eric J.; Griffis, Roger B.; Alexander, Michael A.; Scott, James D.; Alade, Larry; Bell, Richard J.; Chute, Antonie S.; Curti, Kiersten L.; Curtis, Tobey H.; Kircheis, Daniel; Kocik, John F.; Lucey, Sean M.; McCandless, Camilla T.; Milke, Lisa M.; Richardson, David E.; Robillard, Eric; Walsh, Harvey J.; McManus, M. Conor; Marancik, Katrin E.; Griswold, Carolyn A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform

  2. A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan A Hare

    Full Text Available Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region. These

  3. Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change hazards at the regional scale: the case study of the North Adriatic Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Torresan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Sea level rise, changes in storms and wave climate as a consequence of global climate change are expected to increase the size and magnitude of flooded and eroding coastal areas, thus having profound impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems. River deltas, beaches, estuaries and lagoons are considered particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, which should be studied at the regional/local scale. This paper presents a regional vulnerability assessment (RVA methodology developed to analyse site-specific spatial information on coastal vulnerability to the envisaged effects of global climate change, and assist coastal communities in operational coastal management and conservation. The main aim of the RVA is to identify key vulnerable receptors (i.e. natural and human ecosystems in the considered region and localize vulnerable hot spot areas, which could be considered as homogeneous geographic sites for the definition of adaptation strategies. The application of the RVA methodology is based on a heterogeneous subset of bio-geophysical and socio-economic vulnerability indicators (e.g. coastal topography, geomorphology, presence and distribution of vegetation cover, location of artificial protection, which are a measure of the potential harm from a range of climate-related impacts (e.g. sea level rise inundation, storm surge flooding, coastal erosion. Based on a system of numerical weights and scores, the RVA provides relative vulnerability maps that allow to prioritize more vulnerable areas and targets of different climate-related impacts in the examined region and to support the identification of suitable areas for human settlements, infrastructures and economic activities, providing a basis for coastal zoning and land use planning. The implementation, performance and results of the methodology for the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy are fully described in the paper.

  4. Assessment of Ecological Vulnerability under Oil Spill Stress

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ling Cai; Li Yan; Jialin Ni; Cui Wang

    2015-01-01

      Using the constituent elements of vulnerability, an evaluation index system for the ecological vulnerability of coastal areas under oil spill stress is established based on "Sensitivity-Adaptive Capacity-Exposure...

  5. Red Team Operations to Assess Information Technology Vulnerabilities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veltman, M.; Parker, R.L.

    1999-01-01

    All Information and Communication Technology (ICT) systems have vulnerabilities. Weaknesses in these systems are introduced either during the specification, implementation or operational phase. Leaving aside these introduced vulnerabilities are intentional or unintentional, the fact remains that

  6. Assessing intrinsic and specific vulnerability models ability to indicate groundwater vulnerability to groups of similar pesticides: A comparative study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, Steven; Dixon, Barnali; Griffin, Dale W.

    2018-01-01

    With continued population growth and increasing use of fresh groundwater resources, protection of this valuable resource is critical. A cost effective means to assess risk of groundwater contamination potential will provide a useful tool to protect these resources. Integrating geospatial methods offers a means to quantify the risk of contaminant potential in cost effective and spatially explicit ways. This research was designed to compare the ability of intrinsic (DRASTIC) and specific (Attenuation Factor; AF) vulnerability models to indicate groundwater vulnerability areas by comparing model results to the presence of pesticides from groundwater sample datasets. A logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between the environmental variables and the presence or absence of pesticides within regions of varying vulnerability. According to the DRASTIC model, more than 20% of the study area is very highly vulnerable. Approximately 30% is very highly vulnerable according to the AF model. When groundwater concentrations of individual pesticides were compared to model predictions, the results were mixed. Model predictability improved when concentrations of the group of similar pesticides were compared to model results. Compared to the DRASTIC model, the AF model more accurately predicts the distribution of the number of contaminated wells within each vulnerability class.

  7. Multiple flood vulnerability assessment approach based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and coordinated development degree model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Weichao; Xu, Kui; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling; Ma, Chao

    2018-03-02

    Flood is a serious challenge that increasingly affects the residents as well as policymakers. Flood vulnerability assessment is becoming gradually relevant in the world. The purpose of this study is to develop an approach to reveal the relationship between exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity for better flood vulnerability assessment, based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCEM) and coordinated development degree model (CDDM). The approach is organized into three parts: establishment of index system, assessment of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and multiple flood vulnerability assessment. Hydrodynamic model and statistical data are employed for the establishment of index system; FCEM is used to evaluate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity; and CDDM is applied to express the relationship of the three components of vulnerability. Six multiple flood vulnerability types and four levels are proposed to assess flood vulnerability from multiple perspectives. Then the approach is applied to assess the spatiality of flood vulnerability in Hainan's eastern area, China. Based on the results of multiple flood vulnerability, a decision-making process for rational allocation of limited resources is proposed and applied to the study area. The study shows that multiple flood vulnerability assessment can evaluate vulnerability more completely, and help decision makers learn more information about making decisions in a more comprehensive way. In summary, this study provides a new way for flood vulnerability assessment and disaster prevention decision. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Assessment of Road Infrastructures Pertaining to Malaysian Experience

    OpenAIRE

    Samsuddin Norshakina; Mohd Masirin Mohd Idrus

    2016-01-01

    Road Infrastructures contribute towards many severe accidents and it needs supervision as to improve road safety levels. The numbers of fatalities have increased annually and road authority should seriously consider conducting programs or activities to periodically monitor, restore of improve road infrastructure. Implementation of road safety audits may reduce fatalities among road users and maintain road safety at acceptable standards. This paper is aimed to discuss the aspects of road infra...

  9. Data for calculating population, collision and displacement vulnerability among marine birds of the California Current System associated with offshore wind energy infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Josh; Kelsey, Emily; Felis, Jonathan J.; Pereksta, David M.

    2016-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center (USGS-WERC) was requested by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) to create a database for marine birds of the California Current System (CCS) that would allow quantification and species ranking regarding vulnerability to offshore wind energy infrastructure (OWEI). This was needed so that resource managers could evaluate potential impacts associated with siting and construction of OWEI within the California Current System section of the Pacific Offshore Continental Shelf, including California, Oregon, and Washington. Along with its accompanying Open File Report (OFR), this comprehensive database can be used (and modified or updated) to quantify marine bird vulnerability to OWEIs in the CCS at the population level. For 81 marine bird species present in the CCS, we generated numeric scores to represent three vulnerability indices associated with potential OWEI: population vulnerability, collision vulnerability, and displacement vulnerability. The metrics used to produce these scores includes global population size, proportion of the population in the CCS, threat status, adult survival, breeding score, annual occurrence in the CCS, nocturnal and diurnal flight activity, macro-avoidance behavior, flight height, and habitat flexibility; values for these metrics can be updated and adjusted as new data become available. The scoring methodology was peer-reviewed to evaluate if the metrics identified and the values generated were appropriate for each species considered. The numeric vulnerability scores in this database can readily be applied to areas in the CCS with known species distributions and where offshore renewable energy development is being considered. We hope that this information can be used to assist meaningful planning decisions that will impact seabird conservation. These data support the following publication: Adams, J., Kelsey, E.C., Felis J.J., and Pereksta, D.M., 2016

  10. Methodological approaches to climate change vulnerability assessment of Protected Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana N. Lipka

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impacts in Russia's territory make species and ecosystems conservation in Protected Areas a more difficult challenge. Additional adaptation measures are required. Before they are developed, it is important to assess the vulnerability of a territory: what exactly, and to which extent, is exposed to adverse climate impacts? The accomplished research will help develop an action plan consistent with the current unstable climate and extreme weather events, as well as with projections by the leading research institutions of Roshydromet and the Russian Academy of Science. Today, methodologies have been developed and successfully tested for some natural zones. The conservation science is now facing a new challenge: how to combine collected information with climate projections and identify development perspectives for concrete territories.

  11. National Levee Database: monitoring, vulnerability assessment and management in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbetta, Silvia; Camici, Stefania; Maccioni, Pamela; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2015-04-01

    Italian levees and historical breach failures to be exploited in the framework of an operational procedure addressed to the seepage vulnerability assessment of river reaches where the levee system is an important structural measure against flooding. For its structure, INLED is a dynamic geospatial database with ongoing efforts to add levee data from authorities with the charge of hydraulic risk mitigation. In particular, the database is aimed to provide the available information about: i) location and condition of levees; ii) morphological and geometrical properties; iii) photographic documentation; iv) historical levee failures; v) assessment of vulnerability to overtopping and seepage carried out through a procedure based on simple vulnerability indexes (Camici et al. 2014); vi) management, control and maintenance; vii)flood hazard maps developed by assuming the levee system undamaged/damaged during the flood event. Currently, INLED contains data of levees that are mostly located in the Tiber basin, Central Italy. References Apel H., Merz B. & Thieken A.H. Quantification of uncertainties in flood risk assessments. Int J River Basin Manag 2008, 6, (2), 149-162. Camici S,, Barbetta S., Moramarco T., Levee body vulnerability to seepage: the case study of the levee failure along the Foenna stream on 1st January 2006 (central Italy)", Journal of Flood Risk Management, in press. Colleselli F. Geotechnical problems related to river and channel embankments. Rotterdam, the Netherlands: Springer, 1994. H. R.Wallingford Consultants (HRWC). Risk assessment for flood and coastal defence for strategic planning: high level methodology technical report, London, 2003. Mazzoleni M., Bacchi B., Barontini S., Di Baldassarre G., Pilotti M. & Ranzi R. Flooding hazard mapping in floodplain areas affected by piping breaches in the Po River, Italy. J Hydrol Eng 2014, 19, (4), 717-731.

  12. Assessment of Social Vulnerability to Natural Hazards in the Mountain Kingdom of Lesotho

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moipone M. Letsie

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Lesotho's landlocked mountainous setting with thin regolith cover and poor economic situation make it vulnerable to hazardous events associated with climate such as drought, floods, strong winds, heavy snowfall, and severe frost. To date, no quantitatively based vulnerability assessment has been undertaken in this heavily populated, developing region in southern Africa. The primary aim of this study was to assess social vulnerability of communities to natural hazards by applying a place-based social vulnerability index developed for the United States, to the Lesotho context. The study used 2006 Lesotho census data, district government records, and household interviews to identify 27 indicators of social vulnerability in southern Lesotho, and then used principal components analysis to generate a social vulnerability index for the study region. Index scores were summed and then mapped to quantify spatial variability in social vulnerability. The study results show a clustering of highly vulnerable communities in the rural highlands as a result of underdevelopment, poverty, and inaccessibility.

  13. Assessment of composite index methods for agricultural vulnerability to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiréhn, Lotten; Danielsson, Åsa; Neset, Tina-Simone S

    2015-06-01

    A common way of quantifying and communicating climate vulnerability is to calculate composite indices from indicators, visualizing these as maps. Inherent methodological uncertainties in vulnerability assessments, however, require greater attention. This study examines Swedish agricultural vulnerability to climate change, the aim being to review various indicator approaches for assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change and to evaluate differences in climate vulnerability depending on the weighting and summarizing methods. The reviewed methods are evaluated by being tested at the municipal level. Three weighting and summarizing methods, representative of climate vulnerability indices in general, are analysed. The results indicate that 34 of 36 method combinations differ significantly from each other. We argue that representing agricultural vulnerability in a single composite index might be insufficient to guide climate adaptation. We emphasize the need for further research into how to measure and visualize agricultural vulnerability and into how to communicate uncertainties in both data and methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke

    2016-01-01

    Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...

  15. Review Article: A comparison of flood and earthquake vulnerability assessment indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. C. de Ruiter

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In a cross-disciplinary study, we carried out an extensive literature review to increase understanding of vulnerability indicators used in the disciplines of earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments. We provide insights into potential improvements in both fields by identifying and comparing quantitative vulnerability indicators grouped into physical and social categories. Next, a selection of index- and curve-based vulnerability models that use these indicators are described, comparing several characteristics such as temporal and spatial aspects. Earthquake vulnerability methods traditionally have a strong focus on object-based physical attributes used in vulnerability curve-based models, while flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use classes in curve-based models. In assessing the differences and similarities between indicators used in earthquake and flood vulnerability models, we only include models that separately assess either of the two hazard types. Flood vulnerability studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as developing object-based physical vulnerability curve assessments and incorporating time-of-the-day-based building occupation patterns. Likewise, earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies by refining their selection of social vulnerability indicators. Based on the lessons obtained in this study, we recommend future studies for exploring risk assessment methodologies across different hazard types.

  16. Review Article: A comparison of flood and earthquake vulnerability assessment indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Ruiter, Marleen C.; Ward, Philip J.; Daniell, James E.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.

    2017-07-01

    In a cross-disciplinary study, we carried out an extensive literature review to increase understanding of vulnerability indicators used in the disciplines of earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments. We provide insights into potential improvements in both fields by identifying and comparing quantitative vulnerability indicators grouped into physical and social categories. Next, a selection of index- and curve-based vulnerability models that use these indicators are described, comparing several characteristics such as temporal and spatial aspects. Earthquake vulnerability methods traditionally have a strong focus on object-based physical attributes used in vulnerability curve-based models, while flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use classes in curve-based models. In assessing the differences and similarities between indicators used in earthquake and flood vulnerability models, we only include models that separately assess either of the two hazard types. Flood vulnerability studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as developing object-based physical vulnerability curve assessments and incorporating time-of-the-day-based building occupation patterns. Likewise, earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies by refining their selection of social vulnerability indicators. Based on the lessons obtained in this study, we recommend future studies for exploring risk assessment methodologies across different hazard types.

  17. Assessing safe and independent living in vulnerable older adults: perspectives of professionals who conduct home assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naik, Aanand D; Kunik, Mark E; Cassidy, Kristin R; Nair, Jeethy; Coverdale, John

    2010-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to describe social services and health professionals' perceptions of vulnerability among older adults living in the community and to elicit how these professionals screen vulnerability in community and in-home settings. Focus group sessions were conducted and analyzed using standardized methods of qualitative analysis. Participants included social services and health professionals (n = 45) who routinely encounter vulnerable older adults. Four themes characterized vulnerability: the inability to perform activities of daily living, lack of social support, sociodemographic factors, and neuropsychiatric conditions. When screening older adults, participants reported evaluating basic cognitive abilities, decision-making processes, and the capacity to adequately plan and safely perform everyday tasks. Participants stated that screening is best performed by an interdisciplinary team in the home setting and preferably on more than one occasion. Social services and health professionals in this study described routinely screening for vulnerability in community-living older adults using a multidomain approach. These professionals endorse the use of assessments that screen an older adult's cognitive and functional capacities for safe and independent living. Further research is needed that integrates routine screening for vulnerability by community social services professionals with the assessments and interventions conducted by primary care physicians.

  18. Developing a vulnerability index for assessing riverbank erosion in large catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, Siôn; Smith, Hugh

    2017-04-01

    Riverbank erosion is a natural process involved in floodplain development, but can have negative impacts such as excessive sediment supply to the river channel, undermining infrastructure and eroding valuable agricultural land. Catchment managers often work with limited budgets and for remediation efforts to be the most effective they should be targeted in areas that are at the highest risk of suffering excessive riverbank erosion. Recent developments in high resolution spatial data capture, such as aerial LiDAR have allowed for much more detailed representation of the riparian area, including the channel location and riparian vegetation. This presentation will propose a new dimensionless index that has been developed to identify and rank sections of river channel according to erosion vulnerability. The index combines information on channel position, slope and curvature extracted from LiDAR-derived DEMs with riparian vegetation cover. It also accounts for the extent of lateral confinement limiting erosion and bank silt-clay composition influencing erodibility. The index is designed to be applied to alluvial channels across large catchments (>500 km2) to support the identification riverbank erosion 'hotspots' at the reach scale (approximating 50-200 m intervals). The performance of the vulnerability index in discriminating actively eroding and non-eroding channel reaches was assessed in the River Lugg catchment, UK. Historic mapping and aerial photographs were used to determine the channel position, slope and riparian vegetation coverage in the 1960s. The index was then calculated for the historic river channel position and compared with ranked metrics of lateral channel change that occurred between the 1960s and present. This approach provides a basis for evaluating the utility of a simple vulnerability index that could be used for prioritising the location of future investments to reduce excessive riverbank erosion in large catchments.

  19. Wireless Local Area Network (WLAN) Vulnerability Assessment and Security

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kessel, Adam; Goodwin, Shane

    2005-01-01

    The proliferation of wireless computer equipment and Local Area Networks (LANs) create an increasingly common and growing threat to Marine Corps Network infrastructure and communication security (COMSEC...

  20. An Assessment of Vulnerability and Trade-offs of Dairy Farmers of India to Climate Variability and Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radhakrishnan, Aparna; Gupta, Jancy; Ravindran, Dileepkumar

    2017-04-01

    The study aims at assessing the vulnerability and tradeoffs of dairy based livelihoods to Climate Variability and Change (CVC) in the Western Ghats ecosystem, India. For this purpose; data were aggregated to an overall Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) to CVC underlying the principles of IPCC, using 40 indicators under 7 LVI components. Fussel framework was used for the nomenclature of vulnerable situation and trade-off between vulnerability components and milk production was calculated. Data were collected through participatory rural appraisal and personal interviews from 360 randomly selected dairy farmers of nine blocks from three states of Western Ghat region, complemented by thirty years of gridded weather data and livestock data. The LVI score of dairy based livelihoods of six taluks were negative. The data were normalized and then combined into three indices of sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity, which were then averaged with weights given using principal component analysis, to obtain the overall vulnerability index. Mann Whitney U test was used to find the significant difference between the taluks in terms of LVI and cumulative square root frequency method was used to categorise the farmers. Even though the taluks are geographically closer, there is significant difference in the LVI values of the regions. Results indicated that the Lanja taluks of Maharashtra is the most vulnerable having an overall LVI value -4.17 with 48% farmers falling in highly vulnerable category. Panel regression analysis reveals that there is significant synergy between average milk production and livestock, social network component and trade-off between natural disasters climate variability component of LVI. Policies for incentivizing the 'climate risk adaptation' costs for small and marginal farmers and livelihood infrastructure for mitigating risks and promoting grass root level innovations are necessary to sustain dairy farming of the region. Thus the research will

  1. Optimal recovery sequencing for critical infrastructure resilience assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vugrin, Eric D.; Brown, Nathanael J. K.; Turnquist, Mark Alan (Cornell University, Ithaca, NY)

    2010-09-01

    Critical infrastructure resilience has become a national priority for the U. S. Department of Homeland Security. System resilience has been studied for several decades in many different disciplines, but no standards or unifying methods exist for critical infrastructure resilience analysis. This report documents the results of a late-start Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project that investigated the identification of optimal recovery strategies that maximize resilience. To this goal, we formulate a bi-level optimization problem for infrastructure network models. In the 'inner' problem, we solve for network flows, and we use the 'outer' problem to identify the optimal recovery modes and sequences. We draw from the literature of multi-mode project scheduling problems to create an effective solution strategy for the resilience optimization model. We demonstrate the application of this approach to a set of network models, including a national railroad model and a supply chain for Army munitions production.

  2. Seismic vulnerability and risk assessment of Kolkata City, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nath, S. K.; Adhikari, M. D.; Devaraj, N.; Maiti, S. K.

    2015-06-01

    The city of Kolkata is one of the most urbanized and densely populated regions in the world and a major industrial and commercial hub of the eastern and northeastern region of India. In order to classify the seismic risk zones of Kolkata we used seismic hazard exposures on the vulnerability components, namely land use/land cover, population density, building typology, age and height. We microzoned seismic hazard of the city by integrating seismological, geological and geotechnical themes in GIS, which in turn are integrated with the vulnerability components in a logic-tree framework for the estimation of both the socioeconomic and structural risk of the city. In both the risk maps, three broad zones have been demarcated as "severe", "high" and "moderate". There had also been a risk-free zone in the city that is termed as "low". The damage distribution in the city due to the 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake of Mw = 8.1 matches satisfactorily well with the demarcated risk regime. The design horizontal seismic coefficients for the city have been worked out for all the fundamental periods that indicate suitability for "A", "B" and "C" type of structures. The cumulative damage probabilities in terms of "none", "slight", "moderate", "extensive" and "complete" have also been assessed for the predominantly four model building types viz. RM2L, RM2M, URML and URMM for each seismic structural risk zone in the city. Both the seismic hazard and risk maps are expected to play vital roles in the earthquake-inflicted disaster mitigation and management of the city of Kolkata.

  3. Development of AHPDST Vulnerability Indexing Model for Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment Using Hydrogeophysical Derived Parameters and GIS Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogaji, K. A.

    2017-04-01

    Producing a bias-free vulnerability assessment map model is significantly needed for planning a scheme of groundwater quality protection. This study developed a GIS-based AHPDST vulnerability index model for producing groundwater vulnerability model map in the hard rock terrain, Nigeria by exploiting the potentials of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Dempster-Shafer theory (DST) data mining models. The acquired borehole and geophysical data in the study area were processed to derive five groundwater vulnerability conditioning factors (GVCFs), namely recharge rate, aquifer transmissivity, hydraulic conductivity, transverse resistance and longitudinal conductance. The produced GVCFs' thematic maps were multi-criterially analyzed by employing the mechanisms of AHP and DST models to determine the normalized weight ( W) parameter for the GVCFs and mass function factors (MFFs) parameter for the GVCFs' thematic maps' class boundaries, respectively. Based on the application of the weighted linear average technique, the determined W and MFFs parameters were synthesized to develop groundwater vulnerability potential index (GVPI)-based AHPDST model algorithm. The developed model was applied to establish four GVPI mass/belief function indices. The estimates based on the applied GVPI belief function indices were processed in GIS environment to create prospective groundwater vulnerability potential index maps. The most representative of the resulting vulnerability maps (the GVPIBel map) was considered for producing the groundwater vulnerability potential zones (GVPZ) map for the area. The produced GVPZ map established 48 and 52% of the areal extent to be covered by the lows/moderate and highs vulnerable zones, respectively. The success and the prediction rates of the produced GVPZ map were determined using the relative operating characteristics technique to give 82.3 and 77.7%, respectively. The analyzed results reveal that the developed GVPI-based AHPDST model algorithm is

  4. Transdisciplinary assessment of community capacity for a Green Infrastructure Typology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widespread use of green infrastructure (GI) in estuarine and coastal management has potential to both mitigate the negative effects of stormwater runoff and generate co-benefits from ecosystem goods and services. However, communities vary widely in their ability to fund, implemen...

  5. Assessment of Public Health Infrastructure to Determine Public Health Preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-03-01

    eight-year-old James Phipps with Cow Pox. When the boy later proved to be immune to Small Pox humanity was on its way to taming the microbe. Between...33 Anjum Hajat, Carol K. Brown and Michael R. Frazer , Local Public Health Agency Infrastructure : A Chartbook., 2001 ed...Care, Housing & Human Services and 42 George W. Bush, Homeland Security Presidential Directive

  6. Assessment of spatial data infrastructures | Cooper | Town and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) is an evolving concept, essentially consisting of policies, institutional arrangements, Geographical Information Systems (GISs), data bases, networks, Web services and portals to facilitate and coordinate the availability, exchange and sharing of geospatial data and services between ...

  7. Assessing the development of Kenya National Spatial Data Infrastructure (KNSDI)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Okuku, J.; Bregt, A.K.; Grus, L.

    2014-01-01

    Spatial data plays a vital role in developmental activities, whether natural resource management or socio-economic development. Spatial Data Infrastructures (SDIs) facilitate access, sharing and dissemination of spatial data necessary for complex decision-making processes of the future. Thus,

  8. Baseline Assessment of Vulnerable Children and HIV Burden ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nigeria is having about 17.5 million orphans and Ekiti State the study area contributes about 70,000. This may increase with the prevalence of HIV from one percent to 1.4 percent in the state. This study uses the Orphans Vulnerable Index and Child Status Index to identify and enrol Vulnerable Children (VC) in the two LGAs ...

  9. All rights reserved Assessment of groundwater vulnerability and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    2017-12-12

    Dec 12, 2017 ... and control of groundwater pollution in Zanjan. Therefore, research on groundwater vulnerability is essential to ensure groundwater quality and to achieve sustainability of groundwater resources. Vulnerability zoning the of the mentioned plain on nitrate ion as an contamination index from agricultural and ...

  10. Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buotte, Polly C; Peterson, David L; McKelvey, Kevin S; Hicke, Jeffrey A

    2016-03-15

    Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability assessment conducted by the US Forest Service. During this assessment, five subregional workshops were held to capture variability in vulnerability and to develop adaptation tactics. At each workshop, participants answered a questionnaire to: 1) identify species, resources, or other information missing from the regional assessment, and 2) describe subregional vulnerability to climate change. Workshop participants divided into six resource groups; here we focus on wildlife resources. Participants identified information missing from the regional assessment and multiple instances of subregional variability in climate change vulnerability. We provide recommendations for improving the process of capturing subregional variability in a regional vulnerability assessment. We propose a revised conceptual framework structured around pathways of climate influence, each with separate rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. These revisions allow for a quantitative ranking of species, pathways, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity across subregions. Rankings can be used to direct the development and implementation of future regional research and monitoring programs. The revised conceptual framework is equally applicable as a stand-alone model for assessing climate change vulnerability and as a nested model within a regional assessment for capturing subregional variability in vulnerability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Indicator-based approach for assessing the vulnerability of freshwater resources in the Bagmati River basin, Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babel, Mukand S; Pandey, Vishnu P; Rivas, Aldrin A; Wahid, Shahriar Md

    2011-11-01

    To assess the vulnerability of water resources in the Bagmati River Basin in Nepal, this paper adopts an indicator-based approach wherein vulnerability is expressed as a function of water stress and adaptive capacity. Water stress encompasses indicators of water resources variation, scarcity, and exploitation and water pollution, whereas adaptive capacity covers indicators of natural, physical, human resource, and economic capacities. Based on the evaluation of eleven indicators, which were aggregated into eight vulnerability parameters, an increasingly stressful situation and lack of adaptive capacity became evident. Considerable spatial variation in indicator values suggests differential policy options. While the northern parts need attention to reduce pollution loading and conserve vegetation cover, the southern parts need improvements in physical capacity, i.e. water infrastructures. The comprehensive and easily interpretable findings of the study are expected to help decision makers reach sound solutions to reduce freshwater resources vulnerability in the Bagmati River Basin, Nepal. With its inherent flexibility, the approach has demonstrated its potential for application in different times and areas for monitoring and comparison purposes.

  12. Indicator-Based Approach for Assessing the Vulnerability of Freshwater Resources in the Bagmati River Basin, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babel, Mukand S.; Pandey, Vishnu P.; Rivas, Aldrin A.; Wahid, Shahriar Md.

    2011-11-01

    To assess the vulnerability of water resources in the Bagmati River Basin in Nepal, this paper adopts an indicator-based approach wherein vulnerability is expressed as a function of water stress and adaptive capacity. Water stress encompasses indicators of water resources variation, scarcity, and exploitation and water pollution, whereas adaptive capacity covers indicators of natural, physical, human resource, and economic capacities. Based on the evaluation of eleven indicators, which were aggregated into eight vulnerability parameters, an increasingly stressful situation and lack of adaptive capacity became evident. Considerable spatial variation in indicator values suggests differential policy options. While the northern parts need attention to reduce pollution loading and conserve vegetation cover, the southern parts need improvements in physical capacity, i.e. water infrastructures. The comprehensive and easily interpretable findings of the study are expected to help decision makers reach sound solutions to reduce freshwater resources vulnerability in the Bagmati River Basin, Nepal. With its inherent flexibility, the approach has demonstrated its potential for application in different times and areas for monitoring and comparison purposes.

  13. Assessment of social vulnerability to natural hazards in Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gautam, Dipendra

    2017-12-01

    This paper investigates district-wide social vulnerability to natural hazards in Nepal. Disasters such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, epidemics, and droughts are common in Nepal. Every year thousands of people are killed and huge economic and environmental losses occur in Nepal due to various natural hazards. Although natural hazards are well recognized, quantitative and qualitative social vulnerability mapping has not existed until now in Nepal. This study aims to quantify the social vulnerability on a local scale, considering all 75 districts using the available census. To perform district-level vulnerability mapping, 13 variables were selected and aggregated indexes were plotted in an ArcGIS environment. The sum of results shows that only 4 districts in Nepal have a very low social vulnerability index whereas 46 districts (61 %) are at moderate to high social vulnerability levels. Vulnerability mapping highlights the immediate need for decentralized frameworks to tackle natural hazards in district level; additionally, the results of this study can contribute to preparedness, planning and resource management, inter-district coordination, contingency planning, and public awareness efforts.

  14. Vulnerability assessment of climate-induced water shortage in Phoenix.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gober, Patricia; Kirkwood, Craig W

    2010-12-14

    Global warming has profound consequences for the climate of the American Southwest and its overallocated water supplies. This paper uses simulation modeling and the principles of decision making under uncertainty to translate climate information into tools for vulnerability assessment and urban climate adaptation. A dynamic simulation model, WaterSim, is used to explore future water-shortage conditions in Phoenix. Results indicate that policy action will be needed to attain water sustainability in 2030, even without reductions in river flows caused by climate change. Challenging but feasible changes in lifestyle and slower rates of population growth would allow the region to avoid shortage conditions and achieve groundwater sustainability under all but the most dire climate scenarios. Changes in lifestyle involve more native desert landscaping and fewer pools in addition to slower growth and higher urban densities. There is not a single most likely or optimal future for Phoenix. Urban climate adaptation involves using science-based models to anticipate water shortage and manage climate risk.

  15. Assessing the uptake of persistent identifiers by research infrastructure users.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew S Mayernik

    Full Text Available Significant progress has been made in the past few years in the development of recommendations, policies, and procedures for creating and promoting citations to data sets, software, and other research infrastructures like computing facilities. Open questions remain, however, about the extent to which referencing practices of authors of scholarly publications are changing in ways desired by these initiatives. This paper uses four focused case studies to evaluate whether research infrastructures are being increasingly identified and referenced in the research literature via persistent citable identifiers. The findings of the case studies show that references to such resources are increasing, but that the patterns of these increases are variable. In addition, the study suggests that citation practices for data sets may change more slowly than citation practices for software and research facilities, due to the inertia of existing practices for referencing the use of data. Similarly, existing practices for acknowledging computing support may slow the adoption of formal citations for computing resources.

  16. Shaw Air Force Base Infrastructure Project Environmental Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-09-01

    constructed in the 1940s and is currently operated by a contractor. Five lift stations move the wastewater from the main cantonment and housing...is present southeast of the scarp. The two aquifers are not hydraulically connected due to the presence of the fine-grained Sawdust Landing...trucks, heavy trucks, buses, engines, and motorcycles . Nonroad sources are aircraft, Affected Environment EA for Infrastructure at Shaw AFB 3-27

  17. Modeling the Connectedness Between best Management Practices and Vulnerability Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anandhi, A.; Bailey, N.; Thomas, M.; Bartnick, B.

    2015-12-01

    The overall goal of this study is to better understand the connectedness between Best management practices (BMPs) and vulnerability assessments (VA) in a changing landuse. Developing this connectedness will help understand key vulnerabilities and improve adaptive capacity important for ecosystem sustainability. BMPs are practical management practices or systems designed and installed in watersheds to provide a wide range of effects to protect or restore the physical, chemical, and biological condition of waterbodies (e.g. changing hydrology; improving vegetative habitat; mitigate adverse environmental change). VAs can be defined as "the degree to which the system is susceptible to and is unable to cope with adverse effects of change" and are often characterized as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. There are many variables and factors used in calculating the impact of BMPs and VAs. The event mean concentration or load (e.g. nutrient, sediment,) associated with the specific landuse is an important variable. There is much data that predicts the loads associated with the major landuses (urban, agricultural). Loads greatly vary with region; rainfall characteristics (e.g. rainfall intensity, rainfall frequency); soil characteristics (e.g. soil type, hydrologic soil groups); hydrologic characteristics (e.g. runoff potential). A concern also exists that possibly all of the variables associated with changes in an individual land use have not been identified and distinguished for their impact on land use. For example, the loads associated with a high density residential with much green space may be more similar to medium density than loads associated with high rise apartment buildings. Other factors may include age of construction, % of families with children, % of families with pets, level of transiency, and construction activity The objective of our study is to develop an initial framework using multiple variables and factors to represent the

  18. Climate Change Vulnerability of Native and Alien Freshwater Fishes of California: A Systematic Assessment Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyle, Peter B.; Kiernan, Joseph D.; Crain, Patrick K.; Quiñones, Rebecca M.

    2013-01-01

    Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1) current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction) and (2) likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction). Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California’s native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish species. It should be useful for setting conservation priorities in many different regions. PMID:23717503

  19. Intrinsic vulnerability assessment of Sette Comuni Plateau aquifer (Veneto Region, Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucchi, Franco; Franceschini, Giuliana; Zini, Luca; Aurighi, Marina

    2008-09-01

    Maps illustrating the different degrees of vulnerability within a given area are integral to environmental protection and management policies. The assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of karst areas is difficult since the type and stage of karst development and the related underground discharge behavior are difficult to determine and quantify. Geographic Information Systems techniques are applied to the evaluation of the vulnerability of an aquifer in the alpine karst area of the Sette Comuni Plateau, in the Veneto Region of northern Italy. The water resources of the studied aquifer are of particular importance to the local communities. This aquifer must therefore be protected from both inappropriate use as well as possible pollution. The SINTACS and SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) vulnerability assessment methods have been utilized here to create the vulnerability map. SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) is an adaptation of the parametric managerial model (SINTACS) to karst hydrostructures. The vulnerability map reveals vast zones (81% of the analyzed areas) with a high degree of vulnerability. The presence of well-developed karst structures in these highly vulnerable areas facilitate water percolation, thereby enhancing the groundwater vulnerability risk. Only 1.5 of the studied aquifer have extremely high-vulnerability levels, however these areas include all of the major springs utilized for human consumption. This vulnerability map of the Sette Comuni Plateau aquifer is an indispensable tool for both the effective management of water resources and as support to environmental planning in the Sette Comuni Plateau area.

  20. Assessment of the vulnerability and the resilience of the population at risk of multi-hazard: a support to geo-risk management in Central Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michellier, Caroline; Kervyn, François; Tréfon, Théodore; Wolff, Eléonore

    2013-04-01

    GeoRisCA is a project which aims at studying the geo-risk in the Kivu region (DRC, Rwanda, Burundi), in order to support risk management. The approach developed in GeoRisCA combines methodologies from various disciplines, which will allow the analyses of seismic, volcanic and mass-movement hazards and the vulnerability assessment of the threatened elements. Vulnerability is a complex concept which is commonly defined as the susceptibility of the population, the infrastructures and the natural ecosystems to suffer from damages if a hazard occurs. The densely populated area extended from the North Kivu province in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to North Burundi and East Rwanda is vulnerable to several geohazards, such as landslides triggered by geodynamical processes (climate, seismicity, volcanism) and possibly worsen by anthropic actions. Located in the East African rift valley, the region is also characterized by a strong seismicity, with increasing people and infrastructure exposed. In addition, east DRC hosts the two most active African volcanoes: Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira. Their activity can have serious impacts, as in 2002 when Nyiragongo directly endangers the ~800.000 inhabitants of Goma city, located ~15 km to the south. Linked to passive volcanic degassing, SO2 and CO2 discharge may also increase the population vulnerability(morbidity, mortality). Focusing specifically on this region, the vulnerability assessment methodology developed in GeoRisCA takes into account "exposure to perturbations" and "adaptive capacity or resilience" of the vulnerable systems. On one hand, the exposure is identified as the potential degree of loss of a given element or set of elements at risk; i.e., the susceptibility of people, infrastructures and buildings with respect to a hazard (social vulnerability). It focuses mainly on land use, and on demographic and socio-economic factors that increase or attenuate the impacts of hazards events on local populations. On the

  1. Tsunami Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk assessment for the coast of Oman

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, Mauricio; Aniel-Quiroga, Íñigo; Aguirre-Ayerbe, Ignacio; Álvarez-Gómez, José Antonio; MArtínez, Jara; Gonzalez-Riancho, Pino; Fernandez, Felipe; Medina, Raúl; Al-Yahyai, Sultan

    2016-04-01

    Tsunamis are relatively infrequent phenomena representing a greater threat than earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes, and causing the loss of thousands of human lives and extensive damage to coastal infrastructures around the world. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of new methodologies in this field. This work presents the methodology that has been followed for developing the tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment for the coast of Oman, including maps containing the results of the process. Oman is located in the south eastern corner of the Arabian Peninsula and of the Arabian plate, in front of the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), which is the major source of earthquakes in the eastern border of the Arabian plate and Oman (Al-Shaqsi, 2012). There are at least three historical tsunamis assigned to seismic origin in the MSZ (Heidarzadeh et al., 2008; Jordan, 2008). These events show the high potential for tsunami generation of the MSZ, being one of the most tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean. For the tsunami hazard assessment, worst potential cases have been selected, as well as the historical case of 1945, when an 8.1 earthquake generated a tsunami affecting the coast of Oman, and prompting 4000 casualties in the countries of the area. These scenarios have been computationally simulated in order to get tsunami hazard maps, including flooding maps. These calculations have been carried out at national and local scale, in 9 municipalities all along the coast of Oman, including the cities of Sohar, Wudam, Sawadi, Muscat, Quriyat, Sur, Masirah, Al Duqm, and Salalah. Using the hazard assessment as input, this work presents as well an integrated framework for the tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment carried out in the Sultanate of Oman. This framework considers different dimensions (human, structural) and it is developed at two different spatial resolutions, national and local scale. The national

  2. Heterogeneous Data Fusion Methods for Disaster Risk Assessment using Grid Infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kussul, Nataliia; Skakun, Sergii; Shelestov, Andrii

    2014-05-01

    index (VHI) derived from NOAA satellites, and the extreme value theory techniques. Drought vulnerability is assessed by estimating the crop areas and crop yield to quantify potential impact of a drought on crop production. Finally, drought hazard and vulnerability maps are fused to derive a drought risk map. [1] N.N. Kussul, B.V. Sokolov, Y.I. Zyelyk, V.A. Zelentsov, S.V. Skakun, and A.Yu. Shelestov, "Disaster Risk Assessment Based on Heterogeneous Geospatial Information," J. of Autom. and Inf. Sci., 42(12), pp. 32-45, 2010. [2] S. Skakun, N. Kussul, A. Shelestov, and O. Kussul, "Flood Hazard and Flood Risk Assessment Using a Time Series of Satellite Images: A Case Study in Namibia," Risk Analysis, 2013, doi: 10.1111/risa.12156. [3] L. Hluchy, N. Kussul, A. Shelestov, S. Skakun, O. Kravchenko, Y. Gripich, P. Kopp, E. Lupian, "The Data Fusion Grid Infrastructure: Project Objectives and Achievements," Computing and Informatics, vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 319-334, 2010.

  3. Assessment of Ecological Vulnerability under Oil Spill Stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ling Cai

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Using the constituent elements of vulnerability, an evaluation index system for the ecological vulnerability of coastal areas under oil spill stress is established based on “Sensitivity–Adaptive Capacity-Exposure”. After selecting a gulf in China as the main case study in this work, the cluster analysis and reference method were applied in grading and value assigning for all indexes. In addition, the analytic hierarchy process and expert evaluation method were used to determine the index weighting. Finally, a comprehensive evaluation method was adopted in the evaluation studies on the ecological vulnerability of the gulf coastal zone under oil spill stress. Results show the differences between the gulf area and areas that belong to different ecologically-vulnerable areas under oil spill stress.

  4. Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program: Overview of Assessment Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    .... Over the last three years, a team of national laboratory experts, working in partnership with the energy industry, has successfully applied the methodology as part of OCIP's Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program (VRAP...

  5. Assessment of Ecological Vulnerability under Oil Spill Stress

    OpenAIRE

    Ling Cai; Li Yan; Jialin Ni; Cui Wang

    2015-01-01

    Using the constituent elements of vulnerability, an evaluation index system for the ecological vulnerability of coastal areas under oil spill stress is established based on “Sensitivity–Adaptive Capacity-Exposure”. After selecting a gulf in China as the main case study in this work, the cluster analysis and reference method were applied in grading and value assigning for all indexes. In addition, the analytic hierarchy process and expert evaluation method were used to determine the index weig...

  6. Vulnerability as a Function of Individual and Group Resources in Cumulative Risk Assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Peter L. Defur; Gary W. Evans; Elaine A. Cohen Hubal; Amy D. Kyle; Rachel A. Morello-Frosch; David R. Williams

    2007-01-01

    ... assessment literature. OBJECTIVE: Our objective is to examine the issue of vulnerability in cumulative risk assessment and present a conceptual framework rather than a comprehensive review of the literature. In this article we consider similarities between ecologic and human communities and the factors that make communities vulnerable to environmenta...

  7. Integrating Science and Management to Assess Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Christopher W. Swanston

    2017-01-01

    We developed the ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach (EVAA) to help inform potential adaptation actions in response to a changing climate. EVAA combines multiple quantitative models and expert elicitation from scientists and land managers. In each of eight assessment areas, a panel of local experts determined potential vulnerability of forest ecosystems to...

  8. A rating tool to assess the condition of South African infrastructure

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Wall, K

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In 2006 the South African Institution of Civil Engineering (SAICE), in partnership with the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), released the first ever “report card” assessment rating of the condition of engineering infrastructure...

  9. Institutional adaptability to redress electricity infrastructure vulnerability due to climate change: A non-technical summary for policy makers

    OpenAIRE

    John Foster; William Paul Bell; Craig Froome; Phil Wild; Liam Wagner; Deepak Sharma; Suwin Sandu; Suchi Misra; Ravindra Bagia

    2012-01-01

    The objectives of this project are to examine the adaptive capacity of existing institutional arrangements in the National Electricity Market (NEM) to existing and predicted climate change conditions. Specifically the project aims to: 1. identify climate change adaptation issues in the NEM; 1. analyse climate change impacts on reliability in the NEM under alternative climate change scenarios to 2030, particularly what adaptation strategies the power generation and supply network infrastructur...

  10. The Assessment of Comprehensive Vulnerability of Chemical Industrial Park Based on Entropy Method and Matter-element Extension Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Jingyi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on studying connotative meaning, evaluation methods and models for chemical industry park based on in-depth analysis of relevant research results in China and abroad, it summarizes and states the feature of menacing vulnerability and structural vulnerability and submits detailed influence factors such as personnel vulnerability, infrastructural vulnerability, environmental vulnerability and the vulnerability of safety managerial defeat. Using vulnerability scoping diagram establishes 21 evaluation indexes and an index system for the vulnerability evaluation of chemical industrial park. The comprehensive weights are calculated with entropy method, combining matter-element extension model to make the quantitative evaluation, then apply to evaluate some chemical industrial park successfully. This method provides a new ideas and ways for enhancing overall safety of the chemical industrial park.

  11. Reconsidering the risk assessment concept: Standardizing the impact description as a building block for vulnerability assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Hollenstein

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessments for natural hazards are becoming more widely used and accepted. Using an extended definition of risk, it becomes obvious that performant procedures for vulnerability assessments are vital for the success of the risk concept. However, there are large gaps in knowledge about vulnerability. To alleviate the situation, a conceptual extension of the scope of existing and new models is suggested. The basis of the suggested concept is a stadardization of the output of hazard assessments. This is achieved by defining states of the target objects that depend on the impact and at the same time affect the object's performance characteristics. The possible state variables can be related to a limited set of impact descriptors termed generic impact description interface. The concept suggests that both hazard and vulnerability assessment models are developed according to the specification of this interface, thus facilitating modularized risk assessments. Potential problems related to the application of the concept include acceptance issues and the lacking accuracy of transformation of outputs of existing models. Potential applications and simple examples for adapting existing models are briefly discussed.

  12. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices (2011 Final)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has released the final report titled, Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices. This report was prepared by the National Center for Environmental Assessment's Global Climate Research Staff in the Office of Research and D...

  13. Towards a holistic perspective on city-level vulnerability assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson Nyed, Patrik; Herslund, Lise Byskov

    The deliverable introduces a map of the vulnerability to flooding in Dar es Salaam at the resolution of the finest administrative level (the subward/mtaa; comprising approx. 5-15 000 residents). Overlaying a hydrological model, representing the areas of the city most likely to become flooded......, the high-risk areas may be identified. That is, where the flood-prone areas coincide with the highly vulnerable subwards. The deliverable explores in a step-by-step manner how to capture, measure and process spatial data of multiple dimensions and integrating them into a Geographical Information System...... (GIS). The overall approach is a spatial multiple criteria evaluation (S-MCE) process, following a series of steps, whereby the most important multi-dimensional indicators of vulnerability to flooding are selected, measured and analyzed. Eventually the output is presented as a product in one...

  14. Assessing the impact of sea-level rise on a vulnerable coastal community in Accra, Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwasi Appeaning Addo

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and its associated sea-level rise are expected to significantly affect vulnerable coastal communities. Although the extent of the impact will be localised, its assessment will adopt a monitoring approach that applies globally. The topography of the beach, the type of geological material and the level of human intervention will determine the extent of the area to be flooded and the rate at which the shoreline will move inland. Gleefe, a coastal community in Ghana, has experienced frequent flooding in recent times due to the increasing occurrence of storm surge and sea-level rise. This study used available geospatial data and field measurements to determine how the beach topography has contributed to the incidence of flooding at Gleefe. The topography is generally low-lying. Sections of the beach have elevations of around 1 m, which allows seawater to move inland during very high tide. Accelerated sea-level rise as predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC will destroy homes of the inhabitants and inundate the Densu wetlands behind the beach. Destruction of infrastructure will render the inhabitants homeless, whilst flooding of the wetlands will destroy the habitats of migratory birds and some endangered wildlife species such as marine turtle. Effective adaptation measures should be adopted to protect this very important coastal environment, the ecology of the wetlands and the livelihoods of the community dwellers.

  15. Applying spatial clustering analysis to a township-level social vulnerability assessment in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Yen Lin

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The degree of social vulnerability may vary according to the conditions and backgrounds of different locations, yet spatial clustering phenomena may exist when nearby spatial units exhibit similar characteristics. This study applied spatial autocorrelation statistics to analyze the spatial association of vulnerability among townships in Taiwan. The vulnerability was first assessed on the basis of a social vulnerability index that was constructed using Fuzzy Delphi and analytic hierarchy process methods. Subsequently, the corresponding indicator variables were applied to calculate standardized vulnerability assessment scores by using government data. According to the results of the vulnerability assessment in which T scores were normalized, the distribution of social vulnerabilities varied among the townships. The scores were further analyzed using spatial autocorrelation statistics for spatial clustering of vulnerability distribution. The Local G statistic identified 42 significant spatial association pockets, whereas the Global G statistic indicated no spatial phenomenon of clustering. This phenomenon was verified and explained by applying Moran's I statistics to examine the homogeneity and heterogeneity of spatial associations. Although both statistics were originally designed to identify the existence of spatial clustering, they serve diverse purposes, and the results can be compared to obtain additional insights into the distribution patterns of social vulnerability.

  16. How urban system vulnerabilities to flooding could be assessed to improve resilience and adaptation in spatial planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasi, Riccardo; Viavattene, Christophe; La Loggia, Goffredo

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards damage assets and infrastructure inducing disruptions to urban functions and key daily services. These disruptions may be short or long with a variable spatial scale of impact. From an urban planning perspective, measuring these disruptions and their consequences at an urban scale is fundamental in order to develop more resilient cities. Whereas the assessment of physical vulnerabilities and direct damages is commonly addressed, new methodologies for assessing the systemic vulnerability at the urban scale are required to reveal these disruptions and their consequences. Physical and systemic vulnerability should be measured in order to reflect the multifaceted fragility of cities in the face of external stress, both in terms of the natural/built environment and socio-economic sphere. Additionally, a systemic approach allows the consideration of vulnerability across different spatial scales, as impacts may vary and be transmitted across local, regional or national levels. Urban systems are spatially distributed and the nature of this can have significant effects on flood impacts. The proposed approach identifies the vulnerabilities of flooding within urban contexts, including both in terms of single elementary units (buildings, infrastructures, people, etc.) and systemic functioning (urban functions and daily life networks). Direct losses are appraised initially using conventional methodologies (e.g. depth-damage functions). This aims to both understand the spatial distribution of physical vulnerability and associated losses and, secondly, to identify the most vulnerable building types and ways to improve the physical adaptation of our cities, proposing changes to building codes, design principles and other municipal regulation tools. The subsequent systemic approach recognises the city as a collection of sub-systems or functional units (such as neighbourhoods and suburbs) providing key daily services for inhabitants (e.g. healthcare facilities

  17. Infrastructure Security of the Ural Regions: Assessment Technique and Diagnostic Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Arkadyevich Pykhov

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the infrastructure as one of the important elements of the economic system. Authors have considered the stages of formation of this concept in the scientific world, the ideas of a number of scientists on a role and place of infrastructure in the economic system are given. Short genesis of approaches to the description of infrastructure and to assignment of its functions to certain branches is created. The paper emphasized the importance of strengthening the infrastructural support to the transition of the economy to the machine mode of production. Two main methodological approaches describing the nature and content of infrastructure are allocated: branch-wise and functional. The author's technique of the assessment of infrastructure security of territories at the regional level is offered. A basis of this technique is the allocation of the set of special indicators which values allow to see the level of development of separate elements of infrastructure. Indicative analysis, which is the basis of the methods, allows to judge any phenomenon by comparing the current observed values with the previously accepted threshold levels. This comparison allows one to classify the observations on the scale of "norm-pre-crisis-crisis". The essential advantage of this method is the normalization of indicators, i.e. their reduction to one comparable conditional size. It allows to receive the assessment on certain blocks of indicators and a complex assessment on all set in general. Authors have allocated four basic elements of infrastructure, such as transport, communications and telecommunications, utilities and health care availability. In total, the technique includes 21 indicators. The results of approbatory calculations with the author's method have revealed shortcomings in the infrastructure development of the Ural region. The article is a brief analysis of the data with the accents on the individual indicators and areas.

  18. Vulnerability Assessment of Open Source Wireshark and Chrome Browser

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    UNLIMITED 5 We spent much of the initial time learning about the logical model that modern HTML5 web browsers support, including how users interact with...are supposed to protect users of that site against cross-site scripting) and the new powerful an all-encompassing HTML5 standard. This vulnerability

  19. Assessment of the needs of vulnerable youth populations in post ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Participants were asked to answer separately for children ages 5-12 and adolescents and young adults ages. 13-22. They were also asked about what would be the most effective interventions for helping different vulnerable groups of young people, including orphans, homeless children, former combatants and children of ...

  20. Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment of Casablanca - Morocco, Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omira, R.; Baptista, M. V.; Miranda, M.; Catita, C.; Toto, E.

    2007-12-01

    In this study we present a preliminary evaluation of the tsunami vulnerability of Casablanca area (Morocco) and the expected inundation from a tsunami generated in the North East Atlantic area in the Gulf of Cadiz using a combination of numerical modeling and GIS tools. The study area is the intensively occupied area of the Casablanca Harbor, a location that may be considered as one of the most vulnerable areas to tsunami hazard, along Morocco Atlantic coast, due to its location close to the source of moderate and strong magnitude earthquakes, the extension of low flat areas close to the sea and the existence of dwellings characterized by unstructured constructions. To study vulnerability and inundation we considered geomorphologic and artificial elements as well as the existence of defensive constructions. The inundation zone was divided in for sub-zones according to their height above sea level; the buildings were classed according to: building material, number of floors, conditions of foundation soil. The study area presents a large variety of constructions:1 storey buildings of 2- 2.5 m height, houses and stores of the ancient medina and some modern buildings. The results are presented, using GIS and show a preliminary "picture" of built stock behaviour in case of tsunami for Casablanca. The results clearly demonstrate that the vulnerability to tsunami impact is not uniform within the inundation zone. This work was developed in the framework of NEAREST and TRANSFER projects, EU.

  1. Assessment of Nutritional Vulnerability of the Elderly using Mini ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: The vulnerability of the elderly (65years and above) to nutritional risks is the main thrust of this paper. Subjects and methods: Multi-stage random sampling technique was used to select a total of 600 subjects from eight communities in Umuahia North and Ikwuano Local Government Areas of Abia state.

  2. Assessing landscape vulnerability to wildfire in the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicole M. Vaillant; Crystal A. Kolden; Alistair M. S. Smith

    2016-01-01

    Wildfire is an ever present, natural process shaping landscapes. Having the ability to accurately measure and predict wildfire occurrence and impacts to ecosystem goods and services, both retrospectively and prospectively, is critical for adaptive management of landscapes. Landscape vulnerability is a concept widely utilized in the ecosystem management literature that...

  3. Vulnerability Assessment by Learning Attack Specifications in Graphs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nunes Leal Franqueira, V.; Lopes, Raul H.C.

    This paper presents an evolutionary approach for learning attack specifications that describe attack scenarios. The objective is to find vulnerabilities in computer networks which minimise the cost of an attack with maximum impact. Although we focus on Insider Threat, the proposed approach applies

  4. Applying and validating the PTVA-3 Model at the Aeolian Islands, Italy: assessment of the vulnerability of buildings to tsunamis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dall'Osso

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The volcanic archipelago of the Aeolian Islands (Sicily, Italy is included on the UNESCO World Heritage list and is visited by more than 200 000 tourists per year. Due to its geological characteristics, the risk related to volcanic and seismic activity is particularly high. Since 1916 the archipelago has been hit by eight local tsunamis. The most recent and intense of these events happened on 30 December 2002. It was triggered by two successive landslides along the north-western side of the Stromboli volcano (Sciara del Fuoco, which poured approximately 2–3×107 m3 of rocks and debris into the Tyrrhenian Sea. The waves impacted across the whole archipelago, but most of the damage to buildings and infrastructures occurred on the islands of Stromboli (maximum run-up 11 m and Panarea.

    The aim of this study is to assess the vulnerability of buildings to damage from tsunamis located within the same area inundated by the 2002 event. The assessment is carried out by using the PTVA-3 Model (Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment, version 3. The PTVA-3 Model calculates a Relative Vulnerability Index (RVI for every building, based on a set of selected physical and structural attributes. Run-up values within the area inundated by the 2002 tsunami were measured and mapped by the Istituto Italiano di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV and the University of Bologna during field surveys in January 2003. Results of the assessment show that if the same tsunami were to occur today, 54 buildings would be affected in Stromboli, and 5 in Panarea. The overall vulnerability level obtained in this analysis for Stromboli and Panarea are "average"/"low" and "very low", respectively. Nonetheless, 14 buildings in Stromboli are classified as having a "high" or "average" vulnerability. For some buildings, we were able to validate the RVI scores calculated by the PTVA-3 Model through a qualitative comparison with photographs taken by INGV and

  5. 6 CFR 27.240 - Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... CHEMICAL FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.240 Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments. (a) Review and Approval. The Department will review and... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Review and approval of security vulnerability...

  6. Development and Application of Urban Landslide Vulnerability Assessment Methodology Reflecting Social and Economic Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoonkyung Park

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available An urban landslide vulnerability assessment methodology is proposed with major focus on considering urban social and economic aspects. The proposed methodology was developed based on the landslide susceptibility maps that Korean Forest Service utilizes to identify landslide source areas. Frist, debris flows are propagated to urban areas from such source areas by Flow-R (flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a regional scale, and then urban vulnerability is assessed by two categories: physical and socioeconomic aspect. The physical vulnerability is related to buildings that can be impacted by a landslide event. This study considered two popular building structure types, reinforced-concrete frame and nonreinforced-concrete frame, to assess the physical vulnerability. The socioeconomic vulnerability is considered a function of the resistant levels of the vulnerable people, trigger factor of secondary damage, and preparedness level of the local government. An index-based model is developed to evaluate the life and indirect damage under landslide as well as the resilience ability against disasters. To illustrate the validity of the proposed methodology, physical and socioeconomic vulnerability levels are analyzed for Seoul, Korea, using the suggested approach. The general trend found in this study indicates that the higher population density areas under a weaker fiscal condition that are located at the downstream of mountainous areas are more vulnerable than the areas in opposite conditions.

  7. Review Article: A Comparison of Flood and Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment Indicators

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Ruiter, Marleen C.; Ward, Philip J.; Daniell, James E.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.

    2017-01-01

    In a cross-discipline study, we carried out an extensive literature review to increase understanding of vulnerability indicators used in both earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments. We provide insights into potential improvements in both fields by identifying and comparing quantitative

  8. Data and processes linking vulnerability assessment to adaptation decision-making on climate change in Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Naess, L.O. [Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo (Norway); Norland, I.T.; Lafferty, W.M. [University of Oslo, (Norway). Program for Research and Documentation for a Sustainable Society; Aall, C. [Western Norway Research Institute, Sogndal (Norway)

    2006-05-15

    The article focuses on the use of climate change vulnerability assessments in a local decision-making context, with particular reference to recent studies in Norway. We focus on two aspects of vulnerability assessment that we see as key to local decision-making: first, the information generated through the assessments themselves, and second, the institutional linkages to local level decision-making processes. Different research approaches generated different types of data. This is rarely made explicit, yet it has important implications for decision-making. In addressing these challenges we propose a dialectic approach based on exchange, rather than integration of data from different approaches. The focus is on process over product, and on the need for anchoring vulnerability assessments in local decision-making processes. In conclusion, we argue that there is unlikely to be one single 'correct' assessment tool or indicator model to make vulnerability assessments matter at a local level. (author)

  9. Global assessment of water policy vulnerability under uncertainty in water scarcity projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Byers, Edward; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

    2017-04-01

    Water scarcity is a critical environmental issue worldwide, which has been driven by the significant increase in water extractions during the last century. In the coming decades, climate change is projected to further exacerbate water scarcity conditions in many regions around the world. At present, one important question for policy debate is the identification of water policy interventions that could address the mounting water scarcity problems. Main interventions include investing in water storage infrastructures, water transfer canals, efficient irrigation systems, and desalination plants, among many others. This type of interventions involve long-term planning, long-lived investments and some irreversibility in choices which can shape development of countries for decades. Making decisions on these water infrastructures requires anticipating the long term environmental conditions, needs and constraints under which they will function. This brings large uncertainty in the decision-making process, for instance from demographic or economic projections. But today, climate change is bringing another layer of uncertainty that make decisions even more complex. In this study, we assess in a probabilistic approach the uncertainty in global water scarcity projections following different socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and climate scenarios (RCPs) within the first half of the 21st century. By utilizing an ensemble of 45 future water scarcity projections based on (i) three state-of-the-art global hydrological models (PCR-GLOBWB, H08, and WaterGAP), (ii) five climate models, and (iii) three water scenarios, we have assessed changes in water scarcity and the associated uncertainty distribution worldwide. The water scenarios used here are developed by IIASA's Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative. The main objective of this study is to improve the contribution of hydro-climatic information to effective policymaking by identifying spatial and temporal policy

  10. An Assessment of Infrastructures of Telemedicine at Shiraz University of Medical Sciences

    OpenAIRE

    Ali Garavand; Heshmatollah Asadi; Mahnaz Samadbeik; Mojtaba Hasumi; Reza Mohammadi; Shahabeddin Abhari

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: Telemedicine is defined as the ability to provide interactive health care by modern technologies and telecommunications which require related infrastructure and technologies. The aim of this study was to assess infrastructures of telemedicine at health centers, hospitals and clinics affiliated to Shiraz University of Medical Sciences. Method: This is a cross-sectional study conducted in 2015 on health care facilities equipped with telemedicine. These facilities consisted of 1...

  11. Increasing Biofuel Deployment and Utilization through Development of Renewable Super Premium: Infrastructure Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moriarty, K.; Kass, M.; Theiss, T.

    2014-11-01

    A high octane fuel and specialized vehicle are under consideration as a market opportunity to meet federal requirements for renewable fuel use and fuel economy. Infrastructure is often cited as a barrier for the introduction of a new fuel. This report assesses infrastructure readiness for E25 (25% ethanol; 75% gasoline) and E25+ (more than 25% ethanol). Both above-ground and below-ground equipment are considered as are the current state of stations, codes and regulations, and materials compatibility.

  12. Using indicators to assess physical vulnerability and resilience to natural hazards: a combined approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papathoma-Koehle, Maria; Thaler, Thomas; Fuchs, Sven

    2017-04-01

    Societies will have to live with changing environmental conditions and, therefore, they need to build resilience by reducing vulnerabilities to natural hazards. Successful implementation of strategies for disaster risk reduction requires the understanding and analysis of physical vulnerability and resilience of the built environment. The main objective of the presented research is the development of a methodological framework and toolbox which supports mountain hazard risk management through understanding and including resilience and vulnerability indicators of the built environment in risk management plans. These indicators are selected in terms of two temporal dimensions: vulnerability (as lack of physical ex-ante robustness) and resilience (as the ex-post ability and required time to return to a fully functional condition). An enhanced method using vulnerability indicators for the assessment of physical vulnerability of buildings exposed to mountain hazards is presented here. The approach builds on an existing tool for vulnerability assessment and damage documentation which combines well established methods such as vulnerability curves and indicators. It is based on the consideration of a number of structural characteristics of the buildings as well as the intensity of the process to assign a physical vulnerability index for each building. Moreover, indicators representing the physical resilience of the building are also included. Preliminary results focusing on buildings from the European Alps.

  13. Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Municipalities of Bosnia and Herzegovina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ognjen Žurovec

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The rural population in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH, which constitutes more than half of the total population, experienced serious incidences of extreme weather events in the past two decades. This part of the population is vulnerable to climate change due to significant dependence on agriculture as a climate-sensitive livelihood option. However, the source of their vulnerability is due not only to the extent and magnitude of these extreme climate events, but also to the internal status within the vulnerable systems before the occurrence of such events. In order to explore the different dimensions of vulnerability, we used a set of 20 indicators to quantitatively assess the vulnerability of the rural population to climate change at the local level in BH. Two summarizing and two weighting methods were applied to assess vulnerability—Equal weights (EW and principal component analysis (PCA. Based on the results obtained, we concluded that the current socio-economic conditions and the increased environmental pressure as a result of the present human-environment interactions are the main determinants of vulnerability in most vulnerable municipalities, rather than the degree to which these municipalities are exposed to significant climatic variations. Most vulnerable municipalities are located across the north, with a gradual decrease in vulnerability towards the central, north, and east of the country. Vulnerability increases again from here towards the south of the country. The number of municipalities classified as the highest and highly vulnerable increased when the second summarizing method and weighted indicators were used. However, the general geographic distribution of vulnerability did not change substantially compared to the first method. The approaches used in this study provide some valuable results at the local level, and are presented in a way that is practical for decision-making processes and may serve as a base for further research

  14. An Assessment of Vulnerabilities for Ship-based Control Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-09-01

    industries exists in a vacuum. 24 They are linked by an intricate lattice of support from one infrastructure component to the other, and any...include the bilge alarm system, ship’s draft alarm system, emergency eyewash system, ordinance intrusion alarm system, various firefighting activity...Information flow has also expanded beyond the restrictions originally placed on ICAS. While two ICAS topologies —either directly connected to the ship’s

  15. Building vulnerability to hydro-geomorphic hazards: Estimating damage probability from qualitative vulnerability assessment using logistic regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ettinger, Susanne; Mounaud, Loïc; Magill, Christina; Yao-Lafourcade, Anne-Françoise; Thouret, Jean-Claude; Manville, Vern; Negulescu, Caterina; Zuccaro, Giulio; De Gregorio, Daniela; Nardone, Stefano; Uchuchoque, Juan Alexis Luque; Arguedas, Anita; Macedo, Luisa; Manrique Llerena, Nélida

    2016-10-01

    The focus of this study is an analysis of building vulnerability through investigating impacts from the 8 February 2013 flash flood event along the Avenida Venezuela channel in the city of Arequipa, Peru. On this day, 124.5 mm of rain fell within 3 h (monthly mean: 29.3 mm) triggering a flash flood that inundated at least 0.4 km2 of urban settlements along the channel, affecting more than 280 buildings, 23 of a total of 53 bridges (pedestrian, vehicle and railway), and leading to the partial collapse of sections of the main road, paralyzing central parts of the city for more than one week. This study assesses the aspects of building design and site specific environmental characteristics that render a building vulnerable by considering the example of a flash flood event in February 2013. A statistical methodology is developed that enables estimation of damage probability for buildings. The applied method uses observed inundation height as a hazard proxy in areas where more detailed hydrodynamic modeling data is not available. Building design and site-specific environmental conditions determine the physical vulnerability. The mathematical approach considers both physical vulnerability and hazard related parameters and helps to reduce uncertainty in the determination of descriptive parameters, parameter interdependency and respective contributions to damage. This study aims to (1) enable the estimation of damage probability for a certain hazard intensity, and (2) obtain data to visualize variations in damage susceptibility for buildings in flood prone areas. Data collection is based on a post-flood event field survey and the analysis of high (sub-metric) spatial resolution images (Pléiades 2012, 2013). An inventory of 30 city blocks was collated in a GIS database in order to estimate the physical vulnerability of buildings. As many as 1103 buildings were surveyed along the affected drainage and 898 buildings were included in the statistical analysis. Univariate and

  16. Assessment of floodplain vulnerability during extreme Mississippi River flood 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwell, Allison E; Zhu, Zhenduo; Dutta, Debsunder; Greenberg, Jonathan A; Kumar, Praveen; Garcia, Marcelo H; Rhoads, Bruce L; Holmes, Robert R; Parker, Gary; Berretta, David P; Jacobson, Robert B

    2014-01-01

    Regional change in the variability and magnitude of flooding could be a major consequence of future global climate change. Extreme floods have the capacity to rapidly transform landscapes and expose landscape vulnerabilities through highly variable spatial patterns of inundation, erosion, and deposition. We use the historic activation of the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway during the Mississippi and Ohio River Flooding of 2011 as a scientifically unique stress experiment to analyze indicators of floodplain vulnerability. We use pre- and postflood airborne Light Detection and Ranging data sets to locate erosional and depositional hotspots over the 540 km(2) agricultural Floodway. While riparian vegetation between the river and the main levee breach likely prevented widespread deposition, localized scour and deposition occurred near the levee breaches. Eroded gullies nearly 1 km in length were observed at a low ridge of a relict meander scar of the Mississippi River. Our flow modeling and spatial mapping analysis attributes this vulnerability to a combination of erodible soils, flow acceleration associated with legacy fluvial landforms, and a lack of woody vegetation to anchor soil and enhance flow resistance. Results from this study could guide future mitigation and adaptation measures in cases of extreme flooding.

  17. Assessment of floodplain vulnerability during extreme Mississippi River flood 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwell, Allison E.; Zhu, Zhenduo; Dutta, Debsunder; Greenberg, Jonathan A.; Kumar, Praveen; Garcia, Marcelo H.; Rhoads, Bruce L.; Holmes, Robert R.; Parker, Gary; Berretta, David P.; Jacobson, Robert B.

    2014-01-01

    Regional change in the variability and magnitude of flooding could be a major consequence of future global climate change. Extreme floods have the capacity to rapidly transform landscapes and expose landscape vulnerabilities through highly variable spatial patterns of inundation, erosion, and deposition. We use the historic activation of the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway during the Mississippi and Ohio River Flooding of 2011 as a scientifically unique stress experiment to analyze indicators of floodplain vulnerability. We use pre- and postflood airborne Light Detection and Ranging data sets to locate erosional and depositional hotspots over the 540 km2 agricultural Floodway. While riparian vegetation between the river and the main levee breach likely prevented widespread deposition, localized scour and deposition occurred near the levee breaches. Eroded gullies nearly 1 km in length were observed at a low ridge of a relict meander scar of the Mississippi River. Our flow modeling and spatial mapping analysis attributes this vulnerability to a combination of erodible soils, flow acceleration associated with legacy fluvial landforms, and a lack of woody vegetation to anchor soil and enhance flow resistance. Results from this study could guide future mitigation and adaptation measures in cases of extreme flooding.

  18. Direct assessment of groundwater vulnerability from single observations of multiple contaminants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worrall, F.; Kolpin, D.W.

    2003-01-01

    Groundwater vulnerability is a central concept in pollution risk assessment, yet its estimation has been largely a matter of expert judgment. This work applies a method for the direct calculation of vulnerability from monitoring well observations of pesticide concentrations. The method has two major advantages: it is independent of the compounds being examined, and it has a direct probabilistic interpretation making it ideal for risk assessment. The methodology was applied to data from a groundwater monitoring program in the midwestern United States. The distribution of the vulnerabilities was skewed toward zero. Spatial distribution of the vulnerabilities shows them to be controlled by both regional and local factors. Methods are presented for estimating the necessary sample sizes for vulnerability studies. The further application of the approach developed in this study to understanding groundwater pollution is discussed.

  19. On the use of IT investment assessment methods in the area of spatial data infrastructure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zwirowicz-Rutkowska Agnieszka

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available One of the important issues concerning development of spatial data infrastructures (SDIs is the carrying out of economic and financial analysis. It is essential to determine expenses and also assess effects resulting from the development and use of infrastructures. Costs and benefits assessment could be associated with assessment of the infrastructure effectiveness and efficiency as well as the infrastructure value, understood as the infrastructure impact on economic aspects of an organisational performance, both of an organisation which realises an SDI project and all users of the infrastructure. The aim of this paper is an overview of various assessment methods of investment as well as an analysis of different types of costs and benefits used for information technology (IT projects. Based on the literature, the analysis of the examples of the use of these methods in the area of spatial data infrastructures is also presented. Furthermore, the issues of SDI projects and investments are outlined. The results of the analysis indicate usefulness of the financial methods from different fields of management in the area of SDI building, development and use. The author proposes, in addition to the financial methods, the adaptation of the various techniques used for IT investments and their development, taking into consideration the SDI specificity for the purpose of assessment of different types of costs and benefits and integration of financial aspects with non-financial ones. Among the challenges are identification and quantification of costs and benefits, as well as establishing measures which would fit the characteristics of the SDI project and artefacts resulting from the project realisation. Moreover, aspects of subjectivity and variability in time should be taken into account as the consequences of definite goals and policies as well as business context of organisation undertaking the project or using its artefacts and also investors.

  20. Sensitivity Analysis of Ordered Weighted Averaging Operator in Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moradi, M.; Delavar, M. R.; Moshiri, B.

    2013-09-01

    The main objective of this research is to find the extent to which the minimal variability Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) model of seismic vulnerability assessment is sensitive to variation of optimism degree. There are a variety of models proposed for seismic vulnerability assessment. In order to examine the efficiency of seismic vulnerability assessment models, the stability of results could be analysed. Seismic vulnerability assessment is done to estimate the probable losses in the future earthquake. Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods have been applied by a number of researchers to estimate the human, physical and financial losses in urban areas. The study area of this research is Tehran Metropolitan Area (TMA) which has more than eight million inhabitants. In addition, this paper assumes that North Tehran Fault (NTF) is activated and caused an earthquake in TMA. 1996 census data is used to extract the attribute values for six effective criteria in seismic vulnerability assessment. The results demonstrate that minimal variability OWA model of Seismic Loss Estimation (SLE) is more stable where the aggregated seismic vulnerability degree has a lower value. Moreover, minimal variability OWA is very sensitive to optimism degree in northern areas of Tehran. A number of statistical units in southern areas of the city also indicate considerable sensitivity to optimism degree due to numerous non-standard buildings. In addition, the change of seismic vulnerability degree caused by variation of optimism degree does not exceed 25 % of the original value which means that the overall accuracy of the model is acceptable.

  1. Livelihood Vulnerability Assessment Of Farmers and Nomads in Eastern Ecotone of Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, J.; Zhang, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Livelihood vulnerability assessment provides a scientific basis for anti-poverty of people and regional sustainable development in vulnerable area. Although there are massive discussions on concept of vulnerability, it is still difficult to make it quantitative and to carry out comprehensive appraise. Vulnerability assessments based on sustainable livelihood frame are widely accepted in case studies for attentions to vulnerable groups. However, these case studies are always on regional scale and never reflect how climate change affects people's livelihood and adaptive capability of people. It is necessary to seek vulnerable assessment index system and means based on livelihood process of local people. This paper develops a livelihood vulnerability assessment index system on the basis of sustainable livelihood framework and appraises livelihood vulnerability values of 11 townships, using data of 879 sample households. Livelihood vulnerability assessment index system reflects main risks, livelihood assets and adaptation strategies of local people and government. The results show that livelihood vulnerability level of plateau region is higher than that of mountain to plateau region and mountain gorge region. Manzhang Township in plateau region is the most vulnerable township and nomads there cannot cope with risks of climate change, meadow degeneration and herbs degradation. Upper part of mountain to plateau region and the whole plateau region have high livelihood vulnerability values and local nomads would not cope with risks if no measures are taken by government. The driving forces of livelihood vulnerability include strikes of risks and deficiency of livelihood assets and adaptive capability. Farmers and nomads in high mountain gorge region and lower part of mountain to plateau region can cope with these risks, meanwhile, there are more employment opportunities in second and tertiary industries are needed to help them realize livelihood diversification. Therefore

  2. ASSESSMENT OF FUNCTIONING OF REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE OF BUSINESS SUPPORT: QUANTITATIVE ASPECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandr M. Peykov

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The authors pay attention to substantial aspects of the concept “regional infrastructure of business support”, including the focus on territorial and functional aspects. The article aims to evaluate the effectiveness of regional infrastructure of entrepreneurial activity support. The authors suggest that effectiveness of entrepreneurial activity depends on qualitative parameters of infrastructure provision. The analysis of distribution of the indicators characterizing the level of business development in Russian regions which was carried out in the early research showed high extent of their differentiation that predetermined the need of using the typology of territories. To check the hypothesis of dependence of effectiveness of entrepreneurial activity in the regions on qualitative parameters of infrastructure provision on the basis of carrying out typology of territories nonparametric methods of an assessment of interrelation are also used. The authors assess the influence of quantity of infrastructure facilities on activity of enterprise structures. As a result of calculations, the authors confirm the hypothesis and make conclusion that the high-quality rendering of services has a key influence on the development of business sector in Russian regions. In these conditions even in the presence of sufficient number of objects of entrepreneurial activity support in the regions, the level of business development is still low that testifies to the need of high-quality transformations for system of infrastructure providing an entrepreneurial activity.

  3. On the Science-Policy Bridge: Do Spatial Heat Vulnerability Assessment Studies Influence Policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Tanja; Chuang, Wen-Ching; McGregor, Glenn

    2015-10-23

    Human vulnerability to heat varies at a range of spatial scales, especially within cities where there can be noticeable intra-urban differences in heat risk factors. Mapping and visualizing intra-urban heat vulnerability offers opportunities for presenting information to support decision-making. For example the visualization of the spatial variation of heat vulnerability has the potential to enable local governments to identify hot spots of vulnerability and allocate resources and increase assistance to people in areas of greatest need. Recently there has been a proliferation of heat vulnerability mapping studies, all of which, to varying degrees, justify the process of vulnerability mapping in a policy context. However, to date, there has not been a systematic review of the extent to which the results of vulnerability mapping studies have been applied in decision-making. Accordingly we undertook a comprehensive review of 37 recently published papers that use geospatial techniques for assessing human vulnerability to heat. In addition, we conducted an anonymous survey of the lead authors of the 37 papers in order to establish the level of interaction between the researchers as science information producers and local authorities as information users. Both paper review and author survey results show that heat vulnerability mapping has been used in an attempt to communicate policy recommendations, raise awareness and induce institutional networking and learning, but has not as yet had a substantive influence on policymaking or preventive action.

  4. On the Science-Policy Bridge: Do Spatial Heat Vulnerability Assessment Studies Influence Policy?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanja Wolf

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Human vulnerability to heat varies at a range of spatial scales, especially within cities where there can be noticeable intra-urban differences in heat risk factors. Mapping and visualizing intra-urban heat vulnerability offers opportunities for presenting information to support decision-making. For example the visualization of the spatial variation of heat vulnerability has the potential to enable local governments to identify hot spots of vulnerability and allocate resources and increase assistance to people in areas of greatest need. Recently there has been a proliferation of heat vulnerability mapping studies, all of which, to varying degrees, justify the process of vulnerability mapping in a policy context. However, to date, there has not been a systematic review of the extent to which the results of vulnerability mapping studies have been applied in decision-making. Accordingly we undertook a comprehensive review of 37 recently published papers that use geospatial techniques for assessing human vulnerability to heat. In addition, we conducted an anonymous survey of the lead authors of the 37 papers in order to establish the level of interaction between the researchers as science information producers and local authorities as information users. Both paper review and author survey results show that heat vulnerability mapping has been used in an attempt to communicate policy recommendations, raise awareness and induce institutional networking and learning, but has not as yet had a substantive influence on policymaking or preventive action.

  5. Assessing social vulnerability in African urban context. The challenge to cope with climate change induced hazards by communities and households

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabisch, Sigrun; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie

    2013-04-01

    Social vulnerability assessment remains central in discourses on global climatic change and takes a more pertinent meaning considering that natural disasters in African countries continue to deeply affect human settlements and destroys human livelihoods. In recent years, in particular large territories and growing cities have experienced severe weather events. Among them are river and flash floods, affecting the social and economic assets of local populations. The impact of the damage related to floods is not only perceptible during seasonal events but also during unexpected larger disasters which place a particular burden on local population and institutions to adapt effectively to increasing climatic pressures. Important features for social vulnerability assessment are the increasing severity of the physical damages, the shortcoming of social and technical infrastructure, the complexity of land management/market, the limited capacity of local institutions and last but not least the restricted capacities of local population to resist these events. Understanding vulnerability implies highlighting and interlinking relevant indicators and/or perceptions encompassed in four main dimensions: social, institutional, physical and attitudinal vulnerability. Case studies in Dar es Salaam, Ouagadougou and Addis Ababa were carried out to obtain insights into the context-related conditions, behavior routines and survival networks in urban areas in west and east Africa. Using a combination of tools (e.g. focus group discussions, transect walks, interviews) we investigated in close cooperation with African partners how households and communities are being prepared to cope with, as well as to recover from floods. A comprehensive process of dealing with floods can be described based on sequential attributes concerning i) Anticipation before a flood occurs, ii) Resistance and coping activities during a flood event and, iii) Recovery and reconstruction afterwards. A participatory

  6. Binational climate change vulnerability assessment of migratory birds in the Great Lakes Basins: Tools and impediments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert S Rempel

    Full Text Available Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna, wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina, and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina. We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species.

  7. Binational climate change vulnerability assessment of migratory birds in the Great Lakes Basins: Tools and impediments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rempel, Robert S; Hornseth, Megan L

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna), wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina). We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species.

  8. Climate change vulnerability of native and alien freshwater fishes of California: a systematic assessment approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter B Moyle

    Full Text Available Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1 current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction and (2 likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction. Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California's native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (<22°C are particularly likely to go extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish

  9. Infrastructure assessment for disaster management using multi-sensor and multi-temporal remote sensing imagery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Butenuth, Matthias; Frey, Daniel; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, a new assessment system is presented to evaluate infrastructure objects such as roads after natural disasters in near-realtime. A particular aim is the exploitation of multi-sensorial and multi-temporal imagery together with further {GIS-}data in a comprehensive assessment framework...

  10. Designing a graph-based approach to landscape ecological assessment of linear infrastructures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Girardet, Xavier, E-mail: xavier.girardet@univ-fcomte.fr; Foltête, Jean-Christophe, E-mail: jean-christophe.foltete@univ-fcomte.fr; Clauzel, Céline, E-mail: celine.clauzel@univ-fcomte.fr

    2013-09-15

    The development of major linear infrastructures contributes to landscape fragmentation and impacts natural habitats and biodiversity in various ways. To anticipate and minimize such impacts, landscape planning needs to be capable of effective strategic environmental assessment (SEA) and of supporting environmental impact assessment (EIA) decisions. To this end, species distribution models (SDMs) are an effective way of making predictive maps of the presence of a given species. In this paper, we propose to combine SDMs and graph-based representation of landscape networks to integrate the potential long-distance effect of infrastructures on species distribution. A diachronic approach, comparing distribution before and after the linear infrastructure is constructed, leads to the design of a species distribution assessment (SDA), taking into account population isolation. The SDA makes it possible (1) to estimate the local variation in probability of presence and (2) to characterize the impact of the infrastructure in terms of global variation in presence and of distance of disturbance. The method is illustrated by assessing the impact of the construction of a high-speed railway line on the distribution of several virtual species in Franche-Comté (France). The study shows the capacity of the SDA to characterize the impact of a linear infrastructure either as a research concern or as a spatial planning challenge. SDAs could be helpful in deciding among several scenarios for linear infrastructure routes or for the location of mitigation measures. -- Highlights: • Graph connectivity metrics were integrated into a species distribution model. • SDM was performed before and after the implementation of linear infrastructure. • The local variation of presence provides spatial indicators of the impact.

  11. DEVELOPMENT PROBABILITY-LINGUISTIC MODELS VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF AVIATION SECURITY IMPORTANT TECHNICAL FACILITIES

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2016-01-01

    ... are justified, and the assessment problem of the protected object vulnerability is formulated. The main advantage of the developed model is the extensive opportunities of formalization of diverse information on the security status of the object...

  12. Climate change planning for the Great Plains : Wildlife vulnerability assessment & recommendations for land and grazing management

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This report is the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GP LCC) Vulnerability Assessment Report The purpose of the GP LCC is to conduct applied science...

  13. An atmospheric vulnerability assessment framework for environment management and protection based on CAMx.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Li, Yu

    2018-02-01

    This paper presents an atmospheric vulnerability assessment framework based on CAMx that should be helpful to assess potential impacts of changes in human, atmospheric environment, and social economic elements of atmospheric vulnerability. It is also a useful and effective tool that can provide policy-guidance for environmental protection and management to reduce the atmospheric vulnerability. The developed framework was applied to evaluate the atmospheric environment vulnerability of 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region for verification. The results indicated that regional disparity of the atmospheric vulnerability existed in the study site. More specifically, the central and southern regions show more atmospheric environment vulnerability than the northern regions. The impact factors of atmospheric environment vulnerability in the BTH region mainly derived from increasing population press, frequently unfavorable meteorological conditions, extensive economic growth of secondary industry, increased environmental pollution, and accelerating population aging. The framework shown in this paper is an interpretative and heuristic tool for a better understanding of atmospheric vulnerability. This framework can also be replicated at different spatial and temporal scales using context-specific datasets to straightly support environmental managers with decision-making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Approaches of Seismic Vulnerability Assessments in Near Real Time Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frolova, Nina; Larionov, Valery; Bonnin, Jean; Ugarov, Alexander

    2014-05-01

    Data on seismic vulnerability of existing building stock and other elements at risk are rather important for near real time earthquake loss estimations by global systems. These data together with information on regional peculiarities of seismic intensity attenuation and other factors contribute greatly to the reliability of strong event consequences estimated in emergency mode. There are different approaches for vulnerability functions' development and the empirical one is most often used. It is based on analysis of engineering consequences of past strong events when well documented descriptions of damage to different building types and other elements at risk are available for the earthquake prone area under consideration. In the case such data do not exist the information from macroseismic scales may be used. Any approach of vulnerability functions' development requires the proper classification of buildings and structures under consideration. According to national and international building codes, as well as macroseismic scales different buildings' classifications exist. As a result the global systems, such as Extremum and PAGER, as well as GEM project make use of the non-unified information on building stock distribution worldwide. The paper addresses the issues of buildings' classification and city models in terms of these classifications. Distribution of different buildings types in Extremum and PAGER/GEM systems is analyzed for earthquake prone countries. The comparison of city models revealed significant differences which influence greatly earthquake loss estimations in emergency mode. The paper describes the practice of city models' development which make use of space images and web technology in social networks. It is proposed to use the G8 country (and other) initiatives related to open data and transparency aimed at improving building stock distribution and global population databases.

  15. Vulnerability of schools to floods in Nyando River catchment, Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochola, Samuel O; Eitel, Bernhard; Olago, Daniel O

    2010-07-01

    This paper assesses the vulnerability of schools to floods in the Nyando River catchment (3,600 km(2)) in western Kenya and identifies measures needed to reduce this vulnerability. It surveys 130 schools in the lower reaches, where flooding is a recurrent phenomenon. Of the primary schools assessed, 40% were vulnerable, 48% were marginally vulnerable and 12% were not vulnerable. Of the secondary schools, 8% were vulnerable, 73% were marginally vulnerable and 19% were not vulnerable. Vulnerability to floods is due to a lack of funds, poor building standards, local topography, soil types and inadequate drainage. The Constituencies Development Fund (CDF), established in 2003, provides financial support to cover school construction and reconstruction costs; CDF Committees are expected to adopt school building standards. In an effort to promote safe and resilient construction and retrofitting to withstand floods, this paper presents vulnerability reduction strategies and recommendations for incorporating minimum standards in the on-going Primary School Infrastructure Programme Design.

  16. Assessment of groundwater vulnerability by applying the modified DRASTIC model in Beihai City, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiaoyu; Li, Bin; Ma, Chuanming

    2018-02-21

    This study assesses vulnerability of groundwater to pollution in Beihai City, China, as a support of groundwater resource protection. The assessment result not only objectively reflects potential possibility of groundwater to contamination but also provides scientific basis for the planning and utilization of groundwater resources. This study optimizes the parameters consisting of natural factors and human factors upon the DRASTIC model and modifies the ratings of these parameters, based on the local environmental conditions for the study area. And a weight of each parameter is assigned by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to reduce the subjectivity of humans to vulnerability assessment. The resulting scientific ratings and weights of modified DRASTIC model (AHP-DRASTLE model) contribute to obtain the more realistic assessment of vulnerability of groundwater to contaminant. The comparison analysis validates the accuracy and rationality of the AHP-DRASTLE model and shows it suits the particularity of the study area. The new assessment method (AHP-DRASTLE model) can provide a guide for other scholars to assess the vulnerability of groundwater to contamination. The final vulnerability map for the AHP-DRASTLE model shows four classes: highest (2%), high (29%), low (55%), and lowest (14%). The vulnerability map serves as a guide for decision makers on groundwater resource protection and land use planning at the regional scale and that it is adapted to a specific area.

  17. Risk assessment for construction projects of transport infrastructure objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titarenko, Boris

    2017-10-01

    The paper analyzes and compares different methods of risk assessment for construction projects of transport objects. The management of such type of projects demands application of special probabilistic methods due to large level of uncertainty of their implementation. Risk management in the projects requires the use of probabilistic and statistical methods. The aim of the work is to develop a methodology for using traditional methods in combination with robust methods that allow obtaining reliable risk assessments in projects. The robust approach is based on the principle of maximum likelihood and in assessing the risk allows the researcher to obtain reliable results in situations of great uncertainty. The application of robust procedures allows to carry out a quantitative assessment of the main risk indicators of projects when solving the tasks of managing innovation-investment projects. Calculation of damage from the onset of a risky event is possible by any competent specialist. And an assessment of the probability of occurrence of a risky event requires the involvement of special probabilistic methods based on the proposed robust approaches. Practice shows the effectiveness and reliability of results. The methodology developed in the article can be used to create information technologies and their application in automated control systems for complex projects.

  18. Systematic analysis of natural hazards along infrastructure networks using a GIS-tool for risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baruffini, Mirko

    2010-05-01

    Due to the topographical conditions in Switzerland, the highways and the railway lines are frequently exposed to natural hazards as rockfalls, debris flows, landslides, avalanches and others. With the rising incidence of those natural hazards, protection measures become an important political issue. However, they are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. Furthermore risks are distributed in space and time. Consequently, important decision problems to the public sector decision makers are derived. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Efficient protection alternatives can be obtained consequently considering the concept of integral risk management. Risk analysis, as the central part of risk management, has become gradually a generally accepted approach for the assessment of current and future scenarios (Loat & Zimmermann 2004). The procedure aims at risk reduction which can be reached by conventional mitigation on one hand and the implementation of land-use planning on the other hand: a combination of active and passive mitigation measures is applied to prevent damage to buildings, people and infrastructures. With a Geographical Information System adapted to run with a tool developed to manage Risk analysis it is possible to survey the data in time and space, obtaining an important system for managing natural risks. As a framework, we adopt the Swiss system for risk analysis of gravitational natural hazards (BUWAL 1999). It offers a complete framework for the analysis and assessment of risks due to natural hazards, ranging from hazard assessment for gravitational natural hazards, such as landslides, collapses, rockfalls, floodings, debris flows and avalanches, to vulnerability assessment and risk analysis, and the integration into land use planning at the cantonal and municipality level. The scheme is limited to the direct consequences of natural hazards. Thus, we develop a

  19. Application of Satellite Gravimetry for Water Resource Vulnerability Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodell, Matthew

    2012-01-01

    The force of Earth's gravity field varies in proportion to the amount of mass near the surface. Spatial and temporal variations in the gravity field can be measured via their effects on the orbits of satellites. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) is the first satellite mission dedicated to monitoring temporal variations in the gravity field. The monthly gravity anomaly maps that have been delivered by GRACE since 2002 are being used to infer changes in terrestrial water storage (the sum of groundwater, soil moisture, surface waters, and snow and ice), which are the primary source of gravity variability on monthly to decadal timescales after atmospheric and oceanic circulation effects have been removed. Other remote sensing techniques are unable to detect water below the first few centimeters of the land surface. Conventional ground based techniques can be used to monitor terrestrial water storage, but groundwater, soil moisture, and snow observation networks are sparse in most of the world, and the countries that do collect such data rarely are willing to share them. Thus GRACE is unique in its ability to provide global data on variations in the availability of fresh water, which is both vital to life on land and vulnerable to climate variability and mismanagement. This chapter describes the unique and challenging aspects of GRACE terrestrial water storage data, examples of how the data have been used for research and applications related to fresh water vulnerability and change, and prospects for continued contributions of satellite gravimetry to water resources science and policy.

  20. Vulnerability assessment of medieval civic towers as a tool for retrofitting design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casciati, Sara; Faravelli, Lucia

    2008-07-01

    The seismic vulnerability of an ancient civic bell-tower is studied. Rather than seeing it as an intermediate stage toward a risk analysis, the assessment of vulnerability is here pursued for the purpose of optimizing the retrofit design. The vulnerability curves are drawn by carrying out a single time history analysis of a model calibrated on the basis of experimental data. From the results of this analysis, the medians of three selected performance parameters are estimated, and they are used to compute, for each of them, the probability of exceeding or attaining the three corresponding levels of light, moderate and severe damage. The same numerical model is then used to incorporate the effects of several retrofitting solutions and to re-estimate the associated vulnerability curves. The ultimate goal is to provide a numerical tool able to drive the optimization process of a retrofit design by the comparison of the vulnerability estimates associated with the different retrofitting solutions.

  1. Vulnerability assessment of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Li

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Being bordered by the South China Sea and with long coastline, the coastal zone of Guangdong Province is often under severe risk of storm surges, as one of a few regions in China which is seriously threatened by storm surges. This article systematically analyzes the vulnerability factors of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong (from Yangjing to Shanwei. Five vulnerability assessment indicators of hazard-bearing bodies are proposed, which are social economic index, land use index, eco-environmental index, coastal construction index, and disaster-bearing capability index. Then storm surge vulnerability assessment index system in the coastal area of Guangdong is established. Additionally, the international general mode about coastal vulnerability assessment is improved, and the vulnerability evolution model of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong is constructed. Using ArcGIS, the vulnerability zoning map of storm surges in the study region is drawn. Results show that there is the highest degree of storm surge vulnerability in Zhuhai, Panyu, and Taishan; second in Zhongshan, Dongguan, Huiyang, and Haifeng; third in Jiangmen, Shanwei, Yangjiang, and Yangdong; fourth in Baoan, Kaiping, and Enping; and lowest in Guangzhou, Shunde, Shenzhen, and Longgang. This study on the risk of storm surges in these coastal cities can guide the land use of coastal cities in the future, and provide scientific advice for the government to prevent and mitigate the storm surge disasters. It has important theoretical and practical significance.

  2. A Framework for Spatial Assessment of Local Level Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity to Extreme Heat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilhelmi, O.; Hayden, M.; Harlan, S.; Ruddell, D.; Komatsu, K.; England, B.; Uejio, C.

    2008-12-01

    Changing climate is predicted to increase the intensity and impacts of heat waves prompting the need to develop preparedness and adaptation strategies that reduce societal vulnerability. Central to understanding societal vulnerability, is adaptive capacity, the potential of a system or population to modify its features/behaviors so as to better cope with existing and anticipated stresses and fluctuations. Adaptive capacity influences adaptation, the actual adjustments made to cope with the impacts from current and future hazardous heat events. Understanding societal risks, vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity to extreme heat events and climate change requires an interdisciplinary approach that includes information about weather and climate, the natural and built environment, social processes and characteristics, interactions with the stakeholders, and an assessment of community vulnerability. This project presents a framework for an interdisciplinary approach and a case study that explore linkages between quantitative and qualitative data for a more comprehensive understanding of local level vulnerability and adaptive capacity to extreme heat events in Phoenix, Arizona. In this talk, we will present a methodological framework for conducting collaborative research on societal vulnerability and adaptive capacity on a local level that includes integration of household surveys into a quantitative spatial assessment of societal vulnerability. We highlight a collaborative partnership among researchers, community leaders and public health officials. Linkages between assessment of local adaptive capacity and development of regional climate change adaptation strategies will be discussed.

  3. A revised (PTVA model for assessing the vulnerability of buildings to tsunami damage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dall'Osso

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment (PTVA Model (Papathoma, 2003 was developed in the absence of robust, well-constructed and validated building fragility models for assessing the vulnerability of buildings to tsunami. It has proven to be a useful tool for providing assessments of building vulnerability. We present an enhanced version (PTVA-3 of the model that takes account of new understanding of the factors that influence building vulnerability and significantly, introduce the use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP for weighting the various attributes in order to limit concerns about subjective ranking of attributes in the original model. We successfully test PTVA-3 using building data from Maroubra, Sydney, Australia.

  4. A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herslund, Lise Byskov; Jalyer, Fatameh; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie

    2016-01-01

    for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding andthereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning......In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub- Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability...... in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional...

  5. Climate change vulnerabilities- an integrated assessment in Pyramid Lake Paiute Indian Reservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gautam, M. R.; Chief, K.; Wilde, K.; Smith, W.

    2011-12-01

    There are increasing concerns of potential climate change impacts that may place the Truckee River Basin in Nevada under unprecedented stress. We hypothesized that Pyramid Lake, a terminal lake of Truckee River, is prone to climatic as well as non-climatic stressors stemming from cumulative impacts from upstream urban areas and activities. Thus climate change may impair the ability of a major downstream water user, the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe (PLPT), to cope and adapt. The conventional approach in assessing vulnerability primarily focuses on hazards or biophysical vulnerabilities, such as water availability, floods, and drought impact. However, we found it inadequate to address the overall vulnerability of the PLPT. Thus in addition to biophysical vulnerabilities, intrinsic and external vulnerabilities were considered such as socio-economic variables (e.g. adaptive capacity) and policy and legal drivers (e.g. water rights). We proposed an elaborate framework for an integrated vulnerability assessment by adapting IPCC framework for vulnerability assessment, the Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptive Capacity, and applied it to PLPT. Analysis of projected climate change dataset pointed towards increased incidences of floods and droughts and a warming trend over the whole basin with a higher rate at the lower basin in the future. In effort to understand how climatic trends trigger the vulnerability of PLPT, a multi-pronged approach was employed to understand key tribal livelihood assets including an in-depth analysis of the adaptive capacity of PLPT, a climate change survey, and a historical analysis of water conflict and negotiation. Results of the survey identified key natural assets as the lake, endangered fish, rangeland, and wetlands. The framework of a casual-loop diagram was developed in a system dynamic model that incorporated opinions of tribal stakeholders and other experts to evaluate how potential future climate changes might impact the endangered Cui ui fish

  6. Variability in vulnerability assessment of older people by individual general practitioners: a cross-sectional study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvonne M Drewes

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In clinical practice, GPs appeared to have an internalized concept of "vulnerability." This study investigates the variability between general practitioners (GPs in their vulnerability-assessment of older persons. METHODS: Seventy-seven GPs categorized their 75-plus patients (n = 11392 into non-vulnerable, possibly vulnerable, and vulnerable patients. GPs personal and practice characteristics were collected. From a sample of 2828 patients the following domains were recorded: sociodemographic, functional [instrumental activities in daily living (IADL, basic activities in daily living (BADL], somatic (number of diseases, polypharmacy, psychological (Mini-Mental State Examination, 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale; GDS-15 and social (De Jong-Gierveld Loneliness Scale; DJG. Variability in GPs' assessment of vulnerability was tested with mixed effects logistic regression. P-values for variability (pvar were calculated by the log-likelihood ratio test. RESULTS: Participating GPs assessed the vulnerability of 10,361 patients. The median percentage of vulnerable patients was 32.0% (IQR 19.5 to 40.1%. From the somatic and psychological domains, GPs uniformly took into account the patient characteristics 'total number of diseases' (OR 1.7, 90% range  = 0, p var = 1, 'polypharmacy' (OR 2.3, 90% range  = 0, p var = 1 and 'GDS-15' (OR 1.6, 90% range  = 0, p var = 1. GPs vary in the way they assessed their patients' vulnerability in the functional domain (IADL: median OR 2.8, 90% range 1.6, p var < 0.001, BADL: median OR 2.4, 90% range 2.9, p var < 0.001 and the social domain (DJG: median OR 1.2, 90% range  = 1.2, p var < 0.001. CONCLUSIONS: GPs seem to share a medical concept of vulnerability, since they take somatic and psychological characteristics uniformly into account in the vulnerability-assessment of older persons. In the functional and social domains, however, variability was found. Vulnerability assessment by GPs might be a

  7. Assessment of climate vulnerability in the Norwegian built environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hygen, H. O.; Øyen, C. F.; Almås, A. J.

    2011-05-01

    The main trends expected for the change of Norwegian climate for this century are increasing temperatures, precipitation and wind. This indicates a probable increase of climate-related risks to the Norwegian built environment. Through co-operation between the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and SINTEF Building and Infrastructure, building and climate information have been combined to estimate changes in strain to the built environment due to climate change. The results show that the risk of wood decay will increase for the whole country. Almost two million buildings will be subject to an increase in risk of wood decay from medium to high level. Similar analyses have been performed for other climate indices, demonstrating a clear increase in potential damages due to water and humidity, while frost damage probably will decrease.

  8. Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of a Shallow Two-Story Underground RC Box Structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jungwon Huh

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Tunnels, culverts, and subway stations are the main parts of an integrated infrastructure system. Most of them are constructed by the cut-and-cover method at shallow depths (mainly lower than 30 m of soil deposits, where large-scale seismic ground deformation can occur with lower stiffness and strength of the soil. Therefore, the transverse racking deformation (one of the major seismic ground deformation due to soil shear deformations should be included in the seismic design of underground structures using cost- and time-efficient methods that can achieve robustness of design and are easily understood by engineers. This paper aims to develop a simplified but comprehensive approach relating to vulnerability assessment in the form of fragility curves on a shallow two-story reinforced concrete underground box structure constructed in a highly-weathered soil. In addition, a comparison of the results of earthquakes per peak ground acceleration (PGA is conducted to determine the effective and appropriate number for cost- and time-benefit analysis. The ground response acceleration method for buried structures (GRAMBS is used to analyze the behavior of the structure subjected to transverse seismic loading under quasi-static conditions. Furthermore, the damage states that indicate the exceedance level of the structural strength capacity are described by the results of nonlinear static analyses (or so-called pushover analyses. The Latin hypercube sampling technique is employed to consider the uncertainties associated with the material properties and concrete cover owing to the variation in construction conditions. Finally, a large number of artificial ground shakings satisfying the design spectrum are generated in order to develop the seismic fragility curves based on the defined damage states. It is worth noting that the number of ground motions per PGA, which is equal to or larger than 20, is a reasonable value to perform a structural analysis that

  9. Food Adulteration: From Vulnerability Assessment to New Analytical Solutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavin, Christophe; Cottenet, Geoffrey; Blancpain, Carine; Bessaire, Thomas; Frank, Nancy; Zbinden, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    Crises related to the presence of melamine in milk or horse meat in beef have been a wake-up call to the whole food industry showing that adulteration of food raw materials is a complex issue. By analysing the situation, it became clear that the risk-based approach applied to ensure the safety related to chemical contaminants in food is not adequate for food fraud. Therefore, a specific approach has been developed to evaluate adulteration vulnerabilities within the food chain. Vulnerabilities will require the development of new analytical solutions. Fingerprinting methodologies can be very powerful in determining the status of a raw material without knowing the identity of each constituent. Milk adulterated by addition of adulterants with very different chemical properties could be detected rapidly by Fourier-transformed mid-infrared spectroscopy (FT-mid-IR) fingerprinting technology. In parallel, a fast and simple multi-analytes liquid-chromatography tandem mass-spectrometry (LC/MS-MS) method has been developed to detect either high levels of nitrogen-rich compounds resulting from adulteration or low levels due to accidental contamination either in milk or in other sensitive food matrices. To verify meat species authenticity, DNA-based methods are preferred for both raw ingredients and processed food. DNA macro-array, and more specifically the Meat LCD Array have showed efficient and reliable meat identification, allowing the simultaneous detection of 32 meat species. While the Meat LCD Array is still a targeted approach, DNA sequencing is a significant step towards an untargeted one.

  10. Methodology to assess coastal infrastructure resilience to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roca Marta

    2016-01-01

    In order to improve the resilience of the line, several options have been considered to evaluate and reduce climate change impacts to the railway. This paper describes the methodological approach developed to evaluate the risks of flooding for a range of scenarios in the estuary and open coast reaches of the line. Components to derive the present day and future climate change coastal conditions including some possible adaptation measures are also presented together with the results of the hindcasting analysis to assess the performance of the modelling system. An overview of the modelling results obtained to support the development of a long-term Resilience Strategy for asset management is also discussed.

  11. The Influence of Victim Vulnerability and Gender on Police Officers' Assessment of Intimate Partner Violence Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storey, Jennifer E; Strand, Susanne

    2017-01-01

    This study investigated the influence of victim vulnerability factors and gender on risk assessment for intimate partner violence (IPV). 867 cases of male and female perpetrated IPV investigated by Swedish police officers using the Brief Spousal Assault Form for the Evaluation of Risk (B-SAFER) were examined. For male-to-female IPV, victim vulnerability factors were associated with summary risk judgments and risk management recommendations. For female-to-male IPV, vulnerability factors were more often omitted, and consistent associations were not found between vulnerability factors, summary risk judgments, and risk management. Results indicate that B-SAFER victim vulnerability factors can assist in assessing male-to-female IPV risk. Further research is necessary to examine the use of B-SAFER victim vulnerability factors for female-to-male IPV, as results showed victim vulnerability factors to be less relevant to officers' decision making, particularly their management recommendations. However, several variables external to the B-SAFER, such as the availability of management strategies may account for these findings.

  12. Synthetic Assessment of Global Distribution of Vulnerability to Climate Change: Maps and Data, 2005, 2050, and 2100

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Synthetic Assessment of Global Distribution of Vulnerability to Climate Change: Maps and Data, 2005, 2050, and 2100 consist of maps and vulnerability index to...

  13. Rapid assessment of infrastructure of primary health care facilities - a relevant instrument for health care systems management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholz, Stefan; Ngoli, Baltazar; Flessa, Steffen

    2015-05-01

    Health care infrastructure constitutes a major component of the structural quality of a health system. Infrastructural deficiencies of health services are reported in literature and research. A number of instruments exist for the assessment of infrastructure. However, no easy-to-use instruments to assess health facility infrastructure in developing countries are available. Present tools are not applicable for a rapid assessment by health facility staff. Therefore, health information systems lack data on facility infrastructure. A rapid assessment tool for the infrastructure of primary health care facilities was developed by the authors and pilot-tested in Tanzania. The tool measures the quality of all infrastructural components comprehensively and with high standardization. Ratings use a 2-1-0 scheme which is frequently used in Tanzanian health care services. Infrastructural indicators and indices are obtained from the assessment and serve for reporting and tracing of interventions. The tool was pilot-tested in Tanga Region (Tanzania). The pilot test covered seven primary care facilities in the range between dispensary and district hospital. The assessment encompassed the facilities as entities as well as 42 facility buildings and 80 pieces of technical medical equipment. A full assessment of facility infrastructure was undertaken by health care professionals while the rapid assessment was performed by facility staff. Serious infrastructural deficiencies were revealed. The rapid assessment tool proved a reliable instrument of routine data collection by health facility staff. The authors recommend integrating the rapid assessment tool in the health information systems of developing countries. Health authorities in a decentralized health system are thus enabled to detect infrastructural deficiencies and trace the effects of interventions. The tool can lay the data foundation for district facility infrastructure management.

  14. Quantitative Security Risk Assessment and Management for Railway Transportation Infrastructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flammini, Francesco; Gaglione, Andrea; Mazzocca, Nicola; Pragliola, Concetta

    Scientists have been long investigating procedures, models and tools for the risk analysis in several domains, from economics to computer networks. This paper presents a quantitative method and a tool for the security risk assessment and management specifically tailored to the context of railway transportation systems, which are exposed to threats ranging from vandalism to terrorism. The method is based on a reference mathematical model and it is supported by a specifically developed tool. The tool allows for the management of data, including attributes of attack scenarios and effectiveness of protection mechanisms, and the computation of results, including risk and cost/benefit indices. The main focus is on the design of physical protection systems, but the analysis can be extended to logical threats as well. The cost/benefit analysis allows for the evaluation of the return on investment, which is a nowadays important issue to be addressed by risk analysts.

  15. Climate Change: Federal Efforts Under Way to Assess Water Infrastructure Vulnerabilities and Address Adaptation Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-01

    in 2011, and both the St. Mary River and Milk River Basins Study and Colorado River Basin Study in 2012. Some studies entirely cover the major river...29 GAO-14-23 Climate Change Adaptation fruit and nut crops. Reclamation is also the second largest producer of hydropower in the United States

  16. Doctrinal Guidelines for Quantitative Vulnerability Assessments of Infrastructure-Related Risks. Volume I

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    approximately a third of the European population, while the Spanish Flu epidemic ( 1918 –1919) spread globally, killing more than 50 million people...biological agents are described as “ flu -like” and include such non-specific symptoms as headache, fever, malaise, and muscle ache or weakness. A...and distribution of pre-exposure prophylaxis among the population (for example, some years the entire population is offered some form of flu vaccine

  17. Network Vulnerability Assessment of the U.S. Crude Pipeline Infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    Prevención de Incendio, Protección Ambiental y Seguridad Industrial SEGUR-Fire 2001, Caracas, Venezuela, July 2001. 3 Figure 1. Pipeline Safety...become the weapon of choice for international terrorists, irrespective of the political and social -financial conditions of the society under attack.64...on networks in which the link or nodes are tangible or intangible; thus, its applications range from the analysis of aqueduct systems to social

  18. Physically-based landslide assessment for railway infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heyerdahl, Håkon; Høydal, Øyvind

    2017-04-01

    A new high-speed railway line in Eastern Norway passes through areas with Quaternary soil deposits where stability of natural slopes poses considerable challenges. The ground typically consist of thick layers of marine clay deposits, overlain by 8-10 m of silt and sand. Both shallow landslides in the top layers of silt and sand and deep-seated failures in clay must be accounted for. In one section of the railway, the potential for performing stabilizing measures is limited due to existing cultural heritage on top of the slope. Hence, the stability of a steep top section of the slope needs to be evaluated. Assessment of the slope stability for rainfall-triggered slides relies on many parameters. An approach based only on empirical relations will not comply with the design criteria, which only allows deterministic safety margins. From a classic geotechnical approach, the slope would also normally be considered unsafe. However, considerable suction is assumed to exist in the silty and sandy deposits above ground-water level, which will improve the stability. The stabilizing effect however is highly dependent on rainfall, infiltration and soil moisture, and thereby varies continuously. An unsaturated geomechanical approach was taken to assess the slope stability. Soil moisture sensors were installed to monitor changes of in situ water content in the vadose zone. Retention curves for silt/sand specimens samples were measured by pressure plate tests. Some triaxial tests soil strength were performed to check the effect of suction on soil shear strength (performed as drained constant water content tests on compacted specimens). Based on the performed laboratory tests, the unsaturated response of the slope will be modelled numerically and compared with measured soil moisture in situ. Work is still on-going. Initial conditions after respectively dry and wet periods need to be coupled with selected rainfall intensities and duration to see the effect on slope stability. The

  19. Development of a watershed-based geospatial groundwater specific vulnerability assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baloch, Mansoor A; Sahar, Liora

    2014-09-01

    This study assesses and characterizes the vulnerability of unregulated groundwater systems to microbial contamination in 18 counties in the state of Georgia using a contamination risk screening strategy based on watershed characteristics and elements of the Safe Drinking Water Act's Wellhead Protection program. Environmental data sources analyzed include septic systems, elevation, land use and land cover data, soil, vegetation coverage, demographics, and livestock. A geospatial overlay/index modeling approach was developed to identify areas of higher vulnerability for groundwater pollution by taking into consideration watershed land use, hydrology, and topography (LHT). Sensitivity analysis was used to evaluate the effectiveness of model variables. The results of the model were validated by using field data and output from U.S. EPA's DRASTIC model, a widely used intrinsic vulnerability assessment tool. The validation showed a higher risk of microbial contamination for wells located in a high to medium LHT vulnerability zones. LHT provided a clear distribution of satisfactory and unsatisfactory wells in the three vulnerability zones; however, the majority of wells (>75%), with both satisfactory and unsatisfactory test results, are located in medium DRASTIC vulnerability zone. This difference between LHT and DRASTIC can be attributed to the microbial contamination specific factors incorporated into LHT index. It is concluded that although inclusion of potential contamination sources on adjacent land uses in the vulnerability assessment framework adds to the complexity of the processes involved in a vulnerability assessment, such inclusion provides a meaningful perspective to groundwater protection efforts as an effective screening tool. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  20. Focus on CSIR research in water resources: improved methods for aquifer vulnerability assessments and protocols (AVAP) for producing vulnerability maps, taking into account information on soils

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Colvin, C

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater resources are increasingly threatened by pollution. The AVAP project was initiated to develop improved methods for vulnerability assessments in urban catchments, with particular emphasis on the integration of available soils information...

  1. Vulnerability assessment of urban ecosystems driven by water resources, human health and atmospheric environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Jing; Lu, Hongwei; Zhang, Yang; Song, Xinshuang; He, Li

    2016-05-01

    As ecosystem management is a hotspot and urgent topic with increasing population growth and resource depletion. This paper develops an urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment method representing a new vulnerability paradigm for decision makers and environmental managers, as it's an early warning system to identify and prioritize the undesirable environmental changes in terms of natural, human, economic and social elements. The whole idea is to decompose a complex problem into sub-problem, and analyze each sub-problem, and then aggregate all sub-problems to solve this problem. This method integrates spatial context of Geographic Information System (GIS) tool, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method, ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators, and socio-economic elements. Decision makers can find out relevant urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment results with different vulnerable attitude. To test the potential of the vulnerability methodology, it has been applied to a case study area in Beijing, China, where it proved to be reliable and consistent with the Beijing City Master Plan. The results of urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment can support decision makers in evaluating the necessary of taking specific measures to preserve the quality of human health and environmental stressors for a city or multiple cities, with identifying the implications and consequences of their decisions.

  2. Value and Vulnerability Assessment of a Historic Tomb for Conservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aykut Erkal

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Monumental tombs reflect various social, cultural, architectural, religious, economic, and engineering features of a community. However, environmental weathering, natural disasters, poor maintenance, vandalism, and misuse unfortunately pose serious threats to these cultural assets. Historic monuments are often exposed to the highest risk due to their vulnerability. The Ottoman-style Nişancı Hamza Paşa tomb located in Karacaahmet Cemetery, Istanbul, the largest and oldest public cemetery in Turkey, is a case in point. The tomb consisting of six granite columns and a brick dome supported by six arches was constructed in 1605. Cracks, material loss, and decay as a result of adverse environmental effects and past earthquakes are evident. Therefore, this paper analyses the overall value of the tomb with respect to its historical, communal, evidential, and aesthetic aspects. Using the finite element approach and data on the tomb’s material properties, a structural analysis under the self-weight and a time history analysis based on the earthquake ground motion data recorded in Duzce, Turkey, in November 1999 were conducted to encourage the conservation of this tomb and similar cultural heritage assets all over the world. The damage observed in the structure is congruent with the analysis results.

  3. Value and vulnerability assessment of a historic tomb for conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erkal, Aykut; Ozhan, Hakki O

    2014-01-01

    Monumental tombs reflect various social, cultural, architectural, religious, economic, and engineering features of a community. However, environmental weathering, natural disasters, poor maintenance, vandalism, and misuse unfortunately pose serious threats to these cultural assets. Historic monuments are often exposed to the highest risk due to their vulnerability. The Ottoman-style Nişancı Hamza Paşa tomb located in Karacaahmet Cemetery, Istanbul, the largest and oldest public cemetery in Turkey, is a case in point. The tomb consisting of six granite columns and a brick dome supported by six arches was constructed in 1605. Cracks, material loss, and decay as a result of adverse environmental effects and past earthquakes are evident. Therefore, this paper analyses the overall value of the tomb with respect to its historical, communal, evidential, and aesthetic aspects. Using the finite element approach and data on the tomb's material properties, a structural analysis under the self-weight and a time history analysis based on the earthquake ground motion data recorded in Duzce, Turkey, in November 1999 were conducted to encourage the conservation of this tomb and similar cultural heritage assets all over the world. The damage observed in the structure is congruent with the analysis results.

  4. Assessment of vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

    2011-07-01

    There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years.

  5. Assessment of Vulnerability to Extreme Flash Floods in Design Storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun Il Choi

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years.

  6. Cyber and physical infrastructure interdependencies.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phillips, Laurence R.; Kelic, Andjelka; Warren, Drake E.

    2008-09-01

    The goal of the work discussed in this document is to understand the risk to the nation of cyber attacks on critical infrastructures. The large body of research results on cyber attacks against physical infrastructure vulnerabilities has not resulted in clear understanding of the cascading effects a cyber-caused disruption can have on critical national infrastructures and the ability of these affected infrastructures to deliver services. This document discusses current research and methodologies aimed at assessing the translation of a cyber-based effect into a physical disruption of infrastructure and thence into quantification of the economic consequences of the resultant disruption and damage. The document discusses the deficiencies of the existing methods in correlating cyber attacks with physical consequences. The document then outlines a research plan to correct those deficiencies. When completed, the research plan will result in a fully supported methodology to quantify the economic consequences of events that begin with cyber effects, cascade into other physical infrastructure impacts, and result in degradation of the critical infrastructure's ability to deliver services and products. This methodology enables quantification of the risks to national critical infrastructure of cyber threats. The work addresses the electric power sector as an example of how the methodology can be applied.

  7. Vulnerability assessments, identity and spatial scale challenges in disaster-risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward R. Carr

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Current approaches to vulnerability assessment for disaster-risk reduction (DRR commonly apply generalised, a priori determinants of vulnerability to particular hazards in particular places. Although they may allow for policy-level legibility at high levels of spatial scale, these approaches suffer from attribution problems that become more acute as the level of analysis is localised and the population under investigation experiences greater vulnerability. In this article, we locate the source of this problem in a spatial scale mismatch between the essentialist framings of identity behind these generalised determinants of vulnerability and the intersectional, situational character of identity in the places where DRR interventions are designed and implemented. Using the Livelihoods as Intimate Government (LIG approach to identify and understand different vulnerabilities to flooding in a community in southern Zambia, we empirically demonstrate how essentialist framings of identity produce this mismatch. Further, we illustrate a means of operationalising intersectional, situational framings of identity to achieve greater and more productive understandings of hazard vulnerability than available through the application of general determinants of vulnerability to specific places and cases.

  8. A climate change vulnerability assessment of California's at-risk birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardali, Thomas; Seavy, Nathaniel E; DiGaudio, Ryan T; Comrack, Lyann A

    2012-01-01

    Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified climate vulnerability by scoring sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of an organism that make it vulnerable) and exposure (the magnitude of climate change expected) for each taxon. Using the combined sensitivity and exposure scores as an index, we ranked 358 avian taxa, and classified 128 as vulnerable to climate change. Birds associated with wetlands had the largest representation on the list relative to other habitat groups. Of the 29 state or federally listed taxa, 21 were also classified as climate vulnerable, further raising their conservation concern. Integrating climate vulnerability and California's Bird Species of Special Concern list resulted in the addition of five taxa and an increase in priority rank for ten. Our process illustrates a simple, immediate action that can be taken to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildlife.

  9. Hindcast of the 2009 South Pacific tsunami - validation of GIS methodologies for local vulnerability and risk assessment in American Samoa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harbitz, C. B.; Sverdrup-Thygeson, K.; Kaiser, G.; Swarny, R.; Gruenburg, L.; Glimsdal, S.; Løvholt, F.; McAdoo, B. G.; Frauenfelder, R.

    2010-12-01

    On September 29th, 2009 at 6:48 AM local time, a series of earthquakes generated near the Tonga trench (15.509°S, 172.034°W) triggered a tsunami that reached the shores of Tonga, the Independent State of Samoa, and American Samoa. Effects of the tsunami were seen on several other Pacific islands. Devastation was widespread, resulting in 9 fatalities in Tonga, 149 in the independent State of Samoa and 34 in this study’s region of focus, American Samoa, which was selected mainly because of better data availability. Pago Pago, the capital on the main island of Tutuila, was especially affected by the tsunami because of its natural deep water harbor. Leone, located on the southwest coast of the island, was hit directly by waves propagating northeast from the earthquake’s epicenter. The villages of Poloa, Amanave, Alao, and Tula were also heavily damaged, but Leone and Pago Pago sustained some of the most wide-spread damage on Tutuila due to the combination of large populations with environmental and geographic factors. Following the disaster, teams from several nations evaluated damages and evidence of inundation levels. This study seeks to use information (including population, building types, infrastructure, inundation, flow depth, damages, and death tolls) gathered after the tsunami by researchers in American Samoa in order to validate a pre-existing GIS tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment model. The tsunami inundation, damage and mortality information found from journal papers, reports, newspaper articles, internet, personal communication with local agencies, photos, aerial views, and satellite images, was applied to deduce population density, building vulnerability, and the cause and location of tsunami deaths. The GIS model was adapted for optimal use of the available data. In the GIS model the mortality risk is a “product” of hazard, exposure, and mortality. The hazard is represented by the maximum tsunami flow depth, the exposure is described by

  10. Vulnerability assessment of the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary, China to sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Lifang; Ge, Zhenming; Yuan, Lin; Zhang, Liquan

    2015-04-01

    Sea-level rise (SLR) caused by global climate change will have significant impacts on the low-lying coastal zone. The coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary, with their low elevation, are particularly sensitive to SLR. In this study, the potential impacts of SLR on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary were analyzed by adopting the SPRC (Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence) model. Based on the SPRC model and IPCC vulnerability definition, an indicator system for vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands to SLR was developed, in which the rate of SLR, subsidence rate, habitat elevation, mean daily inundation duration of habitat and sedimentation rate were selected as the key indicators. A spatial assessment method based on a GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability. Vulnerability assessment, based on the projection of SLR rates from the present trend (0.26 cm/yr) and IPCC's A1F1 scenario (0.59 cm/yr), were performed for three time periods: short-term (2030s), medium-term (2050s) and long-term (2100s). The results indicated that in the 2030s, 6.6% and 9.0% of the coastal wetlands were within the grade of low vulnerability under the scenarios of present trend and A1F1, respectively. In the 2050s, the percentage of coastal wetlands within the grades of low and moderate vulnerability increases to 9.8% and 0.2%, 9.5% and 1.0% under the scenarios of present trend and A1F1, respectively. In the 2100s, 8.1% and 3.0% of the coastal wetlands were within the grade of low vulnerability, 0.8% and 2.8% were within the grade of moderate vulnerability under the scenarios of present trend and A1F1, respectively. The percentage of coastal wetlands within the grade of high vulnerability increases significantly, amounting to 2.3% and 6.9% under the scenarios of present trend and A1F1, respectively. The application of the SPRC model, the methodology developed and the results could assist

  11. Mapping eco-environmental vulnerability patterns: An assessment framework based on remote sensing, GIS, and AHP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anh, N. K.; Liou, Y. A.; Li, M. H.

    2016-12-01

    The motivation for this study is assessment of the eco-environment vulnerability based on four independent determinants: hydro-meteorology, topography, land resources, and human activities. An assessment framework is proposed to assess the vulnerable eco-environment by using 16 variables with 6 of them constructed from Landsat 8 satellite images. The remaining variables were extracted from digital maps. Each variable was evaluated and spatially mapped with the aid of an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and geographical information system (GIS). The Thua Thien - Hue Province that has been experiencing natural disasters and urbanization in the recent decades is selected as our study area. An eco-environmental vulnerability map is assorted into six vulnerable levels consisting of potential, slight, light, medium, heavy, and very heavy vulnerabilities, representing 14%, 27%, 17%, 26%, 13%, 3% of the study area, respectively. It is found that heavy and very heavy vulnerable areas appear mainly in the low and medium lands with high intensification of social-economic activities and often suffer from flooding. Tiny percentages of medium and heavy vulnerable levels occur in high land areas probably caused by agricultural practices in highlands, slash and burn cultivation and removal of natural forests with new plantation forests and these regions are usually influenced by landslides, flash flooding. Based on our results, three ecological zones requiring different development and protection solutions are proposed to restore local eco-environment toward sustainable development. Our findings support the idea that eco-environmental vulnerability is driven by anthropogenic processes and enhanced by natural disaster in the Thua Thien-Hue Province.

  12. An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

    2016-11-11

    Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

  13. Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuur, E.A.G.; Abbott, B.W.; Bowden, W.B.; Brovkin, V.; Camill, P.; Canadell, J.G.; Chanton, J.P.; Chapin, F. S.; Christensen, T.R.; Ciais, P.; Crosby, B.T.; Czimczik, C.I.; Grosse, G.; Harden, J.; Hayes, D.J.; Hugelius, G.; Jastrow, J.D.; Jones, J.B.; Kleinen, T.; Koven, C.D.; Krinner, G.; Kuhry, P.; Lawrence, D.M.; McGuire, A.D.; Natali, Susan M.; O'Donnell, J. A.; Ping, C.-L.; Riley, W.J.; Rinke, A.; Romanovsky, V.E.; Sannel, A.B.K.; Schädel, C.; Schaefer, K.; Sky, J.; Subin, Z.M.; Tarnocai, C.; Turetsky, M.R.; Waldrop, M.P.; Anthony, K.M. Walter; Wickland, K.P.; Wilson, C.J.; Zimov, S.A.

    2013-01-01

    Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19–45 Pg C by 2040, 162–288 Pg C by 2100, and 381–616 Pg C by 2300 in CO2 equivalent using 100-year CH4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH4 even though CH4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing.

  14. Geospatial approach for assessment of biophysical vulnerability to agricultural drought and its intra-seasonal variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sehgal, Vinay Kumar; Dhakar, Rajkumar

    2016-03-01

    The study presents a methodology to assess and map agricultural drought vulnerability during main kharif crop season at local scale and compare its intra-seasonal variations. A conceptual model of vulnerability based on variables of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity was adopted, and spatial datasets of key biophysical factors contributing to vulnerability were generated using remote sensing and GIS for Rajasthan State of India. Hazard exposure was based on frequency and intensity of gridded standardized precipitation index (SPI). Agricultural sensitivity was based on soil water holding capacity as well as on frequency and intensity of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)-derived trend adjusted vegetation condition index (VCITadj). Percent irrigated area was used as a measure of adaptive capacity. Agricultural drought vulnerability was derived separately for early, mid, late, and whole kharif seasons by composting rating of factors using linear weighting scheme and pairwise comparison of multi-criteria evaluation. The regions showing very low to extreme rating of hazard exposure, drought sensitivity, and agricultural vulnerability were identified at all four time scales. The results indicate that high to extreme vulnerability occurs in more than 50% of net sown area in the state and such areas mostly occur in western, central, and southern parts. The higher vulnerability is on account of non-irrigated croplands, moderate to low water holding capacity of sandy soils, resulting in higher sensitivity, and located in regions with high probability of rainfall deficiency. The mid and late season vulnerability has been found to be much higher than that during early and whole season. Significant correlation of vulnerability rating with food grain productivity, drought recurrence period, crop area damaged in year 2009 and socioeconomic indicator of human development index (HDI) proves the general soundness of methodology. Replication of this methodology

  15. Spatial-temporal eco-environmental vulnerability assessment and its influential factors based on Landsat data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anh, N. K.; Liou, Y. A.; Ming-Hsu, L.

    2016-12-01

    Regional land use/land cover (LULC) changes lead to various changes in ecological processes and, in turn, alter regional micro-climate. To understand eco-environmental responses to LULC changes, eco-environmental evaluation is thus required with aims to identify vulnerable regions and influential factors, so that practical measures for environmental protection and management may be proposed. The Thua Thien - Hue Province has been experiencing urbanization at a rapid rate in both population and physical size. The urban land, agricultural land, and aquaculture activities have been invasively into natural space and caused eco-environment deterioration by land desertification, soil erosion, shrinking forest resources,…etc. In this study, an assessment framework that is composed by 11 variables with 9 of them constructed from Landsat time series is proposed to serve as basis to examine eco-environmental vulnerability in the Thua Thien - Hue Province in years 1989, 2003, and 2014. An eco-environmental vulnerability map is assorted into six vulnerability levels consisting of potential, slight, light, medium, heavy, and very heavy vulnerabilities. Result shows that there is an increasing trend in eco-environmental vulnerability in general with expected evolving distributions in heavy and very heavy vulnerability levels, which mainly lying on developed land, bare land, semi bare land, agricultural land, and poor and recovery forests. In contrast, there is a significant decline in potential vulnerability level. The contributing factors of an upward trend in medium, heavy, and very heavy levels include: (i) a large natural forest converted to plantation forest and agriculture land; and (ii) significant expansion of developed land leading to difference in thermal signatures in urban areas as compared with those of the surrounding areas. It is concluded that anthropogenic processes with transformation on LULC has amplified the vulnerability of eco-environment in the study

  16. [Integrated assessment of eco-environmental vulnerability in Pearl River Delta based on RS and GIS].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Qing-Yong; Huang, Mei; Liu, Hong-Sheng; Yan, Hui-Min

    2011-11-01

    Based on the remote sensing data and with the help of geographic information system, an integrated assessment was conducted on the eco-environmental vulnerability of Pearl River Delta in 2004-2008. Spatial principal component analysis was used to generate the evaluation indicators, and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to determine the weights of the evaluation factors. The reasons causing the vulnerability of the eco- environment in Pearl River Delta were discussed. In the study area, its middle part was the most vulnerable region, occupying 34.0% of the total, eastern part was the moderately vulnerable region, accounting for 25.5%, and western part was the lightly and slightly vulnerable areas, accounting for 28.7 and 11.8%, respectively. Totally, the moderately and lightly vulnerable areas occupied 54.2%, indicating that a majority of the Delta was under moderate and light vulnerability. The natural factors affecting the eco-environmental vulnerability of the Delta were altitude, heavy rain days, water and soil erosion rate, flooded infield rate, normalized difference vegetation index (ND VI) and landscape diversity index, whereas the human factors were population density, waste discharge per unit area, exhaust emission per unit area, land use change, chemical fertilization intensity, pesticide application intensity, amount of motor vehicles possessed by ten thousands people, and index of environmental protection investment. The main characteristics of the extremely and heavily vulnerable regions were low altitude, high frequency of flood disaster, large flooded infield, serious vegetation degradation, high pollution level and low environment protection investment index.

  17. Vulnerability Index to Climate Change and its Application for Community-level Risk Assessment in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atsamon Limsakul

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available On the basis of the vulnerability-led approach, the Prevalent Community-level Vulnerability Index (PCVI was developed as a simple composite index used to represent community-level vulnerability to climate change in the socioeconomic and hazard contexts. The PCVI consists of three major components which are Exposure & hazard, Socioeconomic-ecological fragility and Coping capacity. All of these components are further comprised of different indicators, representing different aspects of biophysical and social vulnerability of grass-root communities. Based on the results analyzed in the provincial pilot sites, the PCVI could represent both spatial patterns and magnitudes of vulnerability of each community in consistence with the local economic-social-environmental contexts. It generally reflects the differences in the local contexts and factors that determine overall vulnerability of each community. For the ease in calculating the PCVI especially for the provincial operating staffs and general public, the PREvalent Community Climate Change Vulnerability Tool (RECCC was further developed as a user-friendly, Excel-based program. In conclusions, the outputs of this study that include the PCVI and its database as well as the RECCC program are useful not only for analyzing vulnerability and assessing risks of community to climate change, but also for supporting decision-making process in developing and implementing adaptation activities at provincial level. These outputs were also designed for further integrating as a supplementary part of Provincial�s Decision Supporting System (DSS, with the purpose of promoting the participation of local organizations and stakeholders in coping with the adverse impacts of climate change. However, additional development of ERCCC program, together with dissemination of the vulnerability framework as well as the use of ERCCC program to local organizations needs to be continued.

  18. Performance-Based Comparative Assessment of Open Source Web Vulnerability Scanners

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mansour Alsaleh

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The widespread adoption of web vulnerability scanners and the differences in the functionality provided by these tool-based vulnerability detection approaches increase the demand for testing their detection effectiveness. Despite the advantages of dynamic testing approaches, the literature lacks studies that systematically evaluate the performance of open source web vulnerability scanners. The main objectives of this study are to assess the performance of open source scanners from multiple perspectives and to examine their detection capability. This paper presents the results of a comparative evaluation of the security features as well as the performance of four web vulnerability detection tools. We followed this comparative assessment with a case study in which we evaluate the level of agreement between the results reported by two open source web vulnerability scanners. Given that the results of our comparative evaluation did not show significant performance differences among the scanners while the results of the conducted case study revealed high level of disagreement between the reports generated by different scanners, we conclude that the inconsistencies between the reports generated by different scanners might not necessarily correlate with their performance properties. We also present some recommendations for helping developers of web vulnerabilities scanners to improve their tools’ capabilities.

  19. Using multi-criteria decision analysis to assess the vulnerability of drinking water utilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joerin, Florent; Cool, Geneviève; Rodriguez, Manuel J; Gignac, Marc; Bouchard, Christian

    2010-07-01

    Outbreaks of microbiological waterborne disease have increased governmental concern regarding the importance of drinking water safety. Considering the multi-barrier approach to safe drinking water may improve management decisions to reduce contamination risks. However, the application of this approach must consider numerous and diverse kinds of information simultaneously. This makes it difficult for authorities to apply the approach to decision making. For this reason, multi-criteria decision analysis can be helpful in applying the multi-barrier approach to vulnerability assessment. The goal of this study is to propose an approach based on a multi-criteria analysis method in order to rank drinking water systems (DWUs) based on their vulnerability to microbiological contamination. This approach is illustrated with an application carried out on 28 DWUs supplied by groundwater in the Province of Québec, Canada. The multi-criteria analysis method chosen is measuring attractiveness by a categorical based evaluation technique methodology allowing the assessment of a microbiological vulnerability indicator (MVI) for each DWU. Results are presented on a scale ranking DWUs from less vulnerable to most vulnerable to contamination. MVI results are tested using a sensitivity analysis on barrier weights and they are also compared with historical data on contamination at the utilities. The investigation demonstrates that MVI provides a good representation of the vulnerability of DWUs to microbiological contamination.

  20. Enhancement of global flood damage assessments using building material based vulnerability curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Englhardt, Johanna; de Ruiter, Marleen; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-04-01

    This study discusses the development of an enhanced approach for flood damage and risk assessments using vulnerability curves that are based on building material information. The approach draws upon common practices in earthquake vulnerability assessments, and is an alternative for land-use or building occupancy approach in flood risk assessment models. The approach is of particular importance for studies where there is a large variation in building material, such as large scale studies or studies in developing countries. A case study of Ethiopia is used to demonstrate the impact of the different methodological approaches on direct damage assessments due to flooding. Generally, flood damage assessments use damage curves for different land-use or occupancy types (i.e. urban or residential and commercial classes). However, these categories do not necessarily relate directly to vulnerability of damage by flood waters. For this, the construction type and building material may be more important, as is used in earthquake risk assessments. For this study, we use building material classification data of the PAGER1 project to define new building material based vulnerability classes for flood damage. This approach will be compared to the widely applied land-use based vulnerability curves such as used by De Moel et al. (2011). The case of Ethiopia demonstrates and compares the feasibility of this novel flood vulnerability method on a country level which holds the potential to be scaled up to a global level. The study shows that flood vulnerability based on building material also allows for better differentiation between flood damage in urban and rural settings, opening doors to better link to poverty studies when such exposure data is available. Furthermore, this new approach paves the road to the enhancement of multi-risk assessments as the method enables the comparison of vulnerability across different natural hazard types that also use material-based vulnerability curves

  1. Groundwater vulnerability assessment using hydrogeologic and geoelectric layer susceptibility indexing at Igbara Oke, Southwestern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.E. Oni

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater vulnerability assessment was carried out at Igbara Oke Southwestern Nigeria, with a view to classify the area into vulnerability zones, by applying the electrical resistivity method, using Schlumberger electrode arrays with maximum electrode separation (AB/2 of 65 m in (41 different locations for data acquisition. Geoelectric parameters (layer resistivity and thickness were determined from the interpreted data. The study area comprises four geoelectric layers (topsoil, lateritic layer, weathered/fractured layer and fresh basement. The geoelectric parameters of the overlying layers across the area were used to assess the vulnerability of the underlying aquifers to near-surface contaminants with the aid of vulnerability maps generated. Three models were compared by maps using geo-electrically derived models; longitudinal conductance, GOD (groundwater occurrence, overlying lithology and depth to the aquifer and GLSI (geoelectric layer susceptibility indexing. The total longitudinal conductance map shows the north central part of the study area as a weakly protected (0.1–0.19 area, while the northern and southern parts have poor protective capacity (<0.1; this is in agreement with the GOD method which shows the northern part of the study area as less vulnerable (0–0.1 while the southern part has low/moderate (0.1–0.3 vulnerability to contamination. The longitudinal conductance exaggerates the degree of susceptibility to contamination than the GOD and GLSI models. From the models, vulnerability to contamination can be considered higher at the southern part than the northern part and therefore, sources of contamination like septic tank, refuse dump should be cited far from groundwater development area. Keywords: Aquifer vulnerability, Longitudinal conductance, GOD and GLSI

  2. Combining Reference Class Forecasting with Overconfidence Theory for Better Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Investments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leleur, Steen; Salling, Kim Bang; Pilkauskiene, Inga

    2015-01-01

    -benefit analysis results that are modified by taking historical risk experience into account. This article seeks to add to this progress in risk assessment methodology in two ways: first it suggests to apply reference class forecasting (RCF) in a flexible way where the effort is focused on formulating the best...... simulation-based risk examination named SIMRISK is concluded to provide a new ‘in-depth’ possibility for dealing with uncertainties inherent to transport decision making based on socioeconomic analysis. In addition a further research perspective is outlined.......Assessing the risks of infrastructure investments has become a topic of growing importance. This is due to a sad record of implemented projects with cost overruns and demand shortfalls leading, in retrospect, to the finding that there is a need for better risk assessment of transport infrastructure...

  3. Combining direct and indirect impacts to assess ecosystem service loss due to infrastructure construction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tardieu, Léa; Roussel, Sébastien; Thompson, John D; Labarraque, Dorothée; Salles, Jean-Michel

    2015-04-01

    The destruction of natural habitats and the associated loss of Ecosystem Services (ES) are rarely jointly assessed and quantified in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). Based on a terrestrial transport infrastructure project, the objective of this paper is to quantify the potential loss of ES associated with direct and indirect impacts, and illustrate their contribution to decision-making for route options. We first quantify how much of each type of ES is generated by different land units in the absence of the infrastructure (baseline conditions). We then estimate ES loss caused by infrastructure construction in a way that discriminates among different types of ES and losses because some ES, in addition to losses that are directly proportional to the surface impacted, can show additional indirect losses associated with landscape connectivity. In addition, we illustrate how the assessment of threshold effects in particular ecosystem types that may be most sensitive to their occurrence can affect the estimation of ES loss. We compare implementation options to provide an example of how choices can be improved by assessing ES loss associated with a combination of direct and indirect impacts. This kind of analysis could be used more generally to assess development projects simply by adapting the framework of analysis to the type of project and the ecosystems concerned. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Assessing the Vulnerability of Wheat Farmers to Drought in North of Fars Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Iraji

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Iran is constantly exposed to natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and drought. In the meantime, drought is the major natural disaster which leads to numerous losses in agriculture and water resources, and this phenomenon is slow and creeping.Available evidence suggests that drought management is based on crisis management. As the present management in our country is based on crisis management, and drought-proneareasin thecountryhave become a society vulnerable to drought. So, the authorities require a new set of data for drought preparedness to deal with these challenges, in order to obtain the resources to be properly and effectively prioritized and reduce the effects of drought and its consequences. Undoubtedly, the starting point of vulnerability assessment and risk management is a prerequisite that has been sadly neglected in our country. In this context, the aim of this study is to determine the vulnerability of technical, economic and social vulnerability assessment determined before and after the drought and vulnerability patterns for wheat farmers in the North of Fars province. Materials and Methods: The vulnerability of wheat farmers in the North of Fars province is determined using three methods. The first method measured ex ante vulnerability based on estimated income distributions, and the other identified ex post vulnerability according to farmers asset positions and drought coping strategy in the 1390 drought. The final section determined the patterns of vulnerability using cluster analysis and data mining. A sample of 203 farmers in three plains was selected for interview and collection of necessary farm level data for two years (1390 and 1391 was carried out. In this study, to assess the vulnerability of households in the North of Fars province against drought, the formula Me-bar and Valdez has been used. In North of Fars province, as many other fields, agriculture is the main source of income and income

  5. Climate change vulnerability assessment of forests in the Southwest USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    James H. Thorne; Hyeyeong Choe; Peter A. Stine; Jeanne C. Chambers; Andrew Holguin; Amber C. Kerr; Mark W. Schwartz

    2017-01-01

    Climate change effects are already apparent in some Southwestern US forests and are expected to intensify in the coming decades, via direct (temperature, precipitation) and indirect (fire, pests, pathogens) stressors. We grouped Southwestern forests into ten major types to assess their climate exposure by 2070 using two global climate models (GCMs) and two emission...

  6. Assessment of Vulnerability Zones for Ground Water Pollution using ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    12

    with the help of GIS-DRASTIC-EC model gives a better perspective of the ground water. 28 quality in terms of identifying .... which is technically very sparse for the purpose of pollution assessment. For the entire 2500. 93 km2 of ... level-2 classification (schema developed by NRSC-GIS, 2010). Other landform units include.

  7. Vulnerability of Russian regions to natural risk: experience of quantitative assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Petrova

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the important tracks leading to natural risk prevention, disaster mitigation or the reduction of losses due to natural hazards is the vulnerability assessment of an 'at-risk' region. The majority of researchers propose to assess vulnerability according to an expert evaluation of several qualitative characteristics, scoring each of them usually using three ratings: low, average, and high. Unlike these investigations, we attempted a quantitative vulnerability assessment using multidimensional statistical methods. Cluster analysis for all 89 Russian regions revealed five different types of region, which are characterized with a single (rarely two prevailing factor causing increase of vulnerability. These factors are: the sensitivity of the technosphere to unfavorable influences; a 'human factor'; a high volume of stored toxic waste that increases possibility of NDs with serious consequences; the low per capita GRP, which determine reduced prevention and protection costs; the heightened liability of regions to natural disasters that can be complicated due to unfavorable social processes. The proposed methods permitted us to find differences in prevailing risk factor (vulnerability factor for the region types that helps to show in which direction risk management should focus on.

  8. A novel method of sensitivity analysis testing by applying the DRASTIC and fuzzy optimization methods to assess groundwater vulnerability to pollution: the case of the Senegal River basin in Mali

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souleymane, Keita; Zhonghua, Tang

    2017-08-01

    Vulnerability to groundwater pollution in the Senegal River basin was studied by two different but complementary methods: the DRASTIC method (which evaluates the intrinsic vulnerability) and the fuzzy method (which assesses the specific vulnerability by taking into account the continuity of the parameters). The validation of this application has been tested by comparing the connection in groundwater and distribution of different established classes of vulnerabilities as well as the nitrate distribution in the study area. Three vulnerability classes (low, medium and high) have been identified by both the DRASTIC method and the fuzzy method (between which the normalized model was used). An integrated analysis reveals that high classes with 14.64 % (for the DRASTIC method), 21.68 % (for the normalized DRASTIC method) and 18.92 % (for the fuzzy method) are not the most dominant. In addition, a new method for sensitivity analysis was used to identify (and confirm) the main parameters which impact the vulnerability to pollution with fuzzy membership. The results showed that the vadose zone is the main parameter which impacts groundwater vulnerability to pollution while net recharge contributes least to pollution in the study area. It was also found that the fuzzy method better assesses the vulnerability to pollution with a coincidence rate of 81.13 % versus that of 77.35 % for the DRASTIC method. These results serve as a guide for policymakers to identify areas sensitive to pollution before such sites are used for socioeconomic infrastructures.

  9. An assessment of flood vulnerability in Khyber Pukhtunkhwa province of Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Said Qasim

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In this research we have attempted to measure vulnerability of the communities living in the flood prone area of Khyber Pukhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. Extensive literature review was conducted to identify the flood vulnerability indicators. Primary data were used to achieve the objective of this study. Questionnaires were used to collect the primary data from the selected households and from the director of Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management. Subjective assessment technique was used to allocate weights to the selected indicators of vulnerability. A sample size of 280 respondents was taken from three selected locations of Charsadda, Nowshera and Peshawar. Simple random sampling was employed for the selection of respondents. Results revealed that overall vulnerability as well as component vulnerability for the selected locations was very high. The study therefore recommends preparedness, provision of funds for building houses with flood resistant materials and building houses in safer places. There is also a need for enhancing the adaptive capacities of the concerned communities through their socio-economic uplift. Implementation of these policies would lower the vulnerability of the communities to flood disasters.

  10. Assessing the inconsistency between groundwater vulnerability and groundwater quality: the case of Chapala Marsh, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leal, J. A. Ramos; Medrano, C. Noyola; Silva, F. O. Tapia; García, J. T. Silva; Gutiérrez, L. R. Reyes

    2012-05-01

    Aquifer systems present intrinsic properties such as vulnerability, which is identified as the potential risk of groundwater pollution by contaminants generated by human activity. When there are surface sources of pollution, usually there is a direct relationship between high vulnerability and decreased water quality. Nevertheless, this relationship is not observed in all aquifers and so the causative circumstances of inconsistencies between aquifer vulnerability and water quality have been investigated. This work addresses the vulnerability assessment of the Chapala Marsh area, Mexico, using SINTACS analysis. The Chapala Marsh aquifer is characterized by a granular structure and a fractured recharge zone; there are natural and anthropogenic sources of pollution. The results show discrepancies between the vulnerability indices and groundwater quality, as indicated by the existence of vulnerable areas with good water quality and vice versa. This is because the SINTACS method works well when contaminants have only vertical movement. For scenarios with lateral movement of contaminants, the method of geographic weighted regression (GWR) is used to model the influence of potential sources of contaminants on the water quality.

  11. Assessment of aquifer intrinsic vulnerability using GIS based Drastic model in Sialkot area, Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Saqib Khan

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The intrinsic vulnerability of a shallow aquifer of Sialkot is assessed using DRASTIC index method. The information required as input for all seven parameters, i.e. depth to water table, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, the impact of vadose zone and hydraulic conductivity data were collected from literature surveys and on field surveys. A cumulative vulnerability map was developed using the indices obtained as a result of DRASTIC methodology. The values obtained from DRASTIC model for the study area were between 112 and 151. The area was dominated by medium and moderate vulnerable zones covering an area of 446 km2 and 442 km2 respectively. An area of 79 km2 was covered by the low vulnerable zone while the high vulnerable zone encompassed a total area of 38 km2. Least covered area i-e., 09 km2 was found in the vicinity of the very high vulnerable zone. The validation of the DRASTIC model using the nitrate distribution revealed that very high and high indices have the lower percentage of reliability than of the low to moderate zones as compared with the nitrate distribution in the groundwater.

  12. Towards an empirical vulnerability function for use in debris flow risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Fuchs

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available In quantitative risk assessment, risk is expressed as a function of the hazard, the elements at risk and the vulnerability. From a natural sciences perspective, vulnerability is defined as the expected degree of loss for an element at risk as a consequence of a certain event. The resulting value is dependent on the impacting process intensity and the susceptibility of the elements at risk, and ranges from 0 (no damage to 1 (complete destruction. With respect to debris flows, the concept of vulnerability – though widely acknowledged – did not result in any sound quantitative relationship between process intensities and vulnerability values so far, even if considerable loss occurred during recent years.

    To close this gap and establish this relationship, data from a well-documented debris flow event in the Austrian Alps was used to derive a quantitative vulnerability function applicable to buildings located on the fan of the torrent. The results suggest a second order polynomial function to fit best to the observed damage pattern. Vulnerability is highly dependent on the construction material used for exposed elements at risk. The buildings studied within the test site were constructed by using brick masonry and concrete, a typical design in post-1950s building craft in alpine countries. Consequently, the presented intensity-vulnerability relationship is applicable to this construction type within European mountains. However, a wider application of the presented method to additional test sites would allow for further improvement of the results and would support an enhanced standardisation of the vulnerability function.

  13. Quality of service provision assessment in the healthcare information and telecommunications infrastructures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babulak, Eduard

    2006-01-01

    The continuous increase in the complexity and the heterogeneity of corporate and healthcare telecommunications infrastructures will require new assessment methods of quality of service (QoS) provision that are capable of addressing all engineering and social issues with much faster speeds. Speed and accessibility to any information at any time from anywhere will create global communications infrastructures with great performance bottlenecks that may put in danger human lives, power supplies, national economy and security. Regardless of the technology supporting the information flows, the final verdict on the QoS is made by the end user. The users' perception of telecommunications' network infrastructure QoS provision is critical to the successful business management operation of any organization. As a result, it is essential to assess the QoS Provision in the light of user's perception. This article presents a cost effective methodology to assess the user's perception of quality of service provision utilizing the existing Staffordshire University Network (SUN) by adding a component of measurement to the existing model presented by Walker. This paper presents the real examples of CISCO Networking Solutions for Health Care givers and offers a cost effective approach to assess the QoS provision within the campus network, which could be easily adapted to any health care organization or campus network in the world.

  14. Groundwater vulnerability assessment in Jaworzynka's Valley catchment basin (Tatra Mountains, Poland)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cypel, M.

    2012-04-01

    During the research an attempt was made to assess an intrinsic groundwater vulnerability to contamination in Tatra Mountains (Poland. Assessment of the degree of hazard of permeating pollutions from land surface directly to the ground water table was the main target of the research. The Jaworzynka's Valley in West Tatra Mountains was chosen as the exact research area. Jaworzynka's Valley is a typical karst catchment basin. Location of study area wasn't accidental, because in the north part of the valley there is a well which is being used as drinking water intake for the whole Zakopane City. This is the reason, why the quality of ground water is so important. The method used in this research, entitled KARSTIC, wasn't applied in Poland before. This is a parametric method of groundwater vulnerability assessment. KARSTIC is a modification of much better known DRASTIC method, specialized for specific karst terrain. KARSTIC method created by A. Davis and others (1994), was used for the first time, during a research in the Black Hills Mountains, USA. Research in Jaworzynka's Valley was based on the Black Hills study. In order to apply this method in Tatra Mountains, it was necessary to make a few changes in relation to original area. Applying KARSTIC method consists of successive stages. Schematization of hydrogeological conditions is an inseparable part of KARSTIC method. The first step bases on collecting all of available data such as maps, databases and documentations. Next stage consists of classifying all parameters employed in this method and then assigning a ratings and weights for this parameters. Subsequently it is necessary to use a mathematical formula, named Pollution Potential Index, which presents a ground water vulnerability in each point. The final step is visualization on the ground water vulnerability map. The result of research displays the high vulnerability in close proximity of the drinking water intake. The most vulnerable areas in Jaworzynka

  15. An Assessment of Infrastructures of Telemedicine at Shiraz University of Medical Sciences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Garavand

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Telemedicine is defined as the ability to provide interactive health care by modern technologies and telecommunications which require related infrastructure and technologies. The aim of this study was to assess infrastructures of telemedicine at health centers, hospitals and clinics affiliated to Shiraz University of Medical Sciences. Method: This is a cross-sectional study conducted in 2015 on health care facilities equipped with telemedicine. These facilities consisted of 15 health centers, three hospitals and two clinics which were studied through census sampling method. Data were collected using a standard checklist and analyzed using descriptive statistics through SPSS version 21. Results: All the studied centers used laptop platform, of which 95% (19 Centers had camera platform and 80% had monitors with full HD resolution. Of all the centers, 14.44% used clinical facilities and equipment and 85% (17 centers had required facilities to hold video conferences. Totally, there was 21.31% of the required communicational protocol to establish telemedicine. The average internet network bandwidth of health centers was 644.68 MB/S. Conclusion: According to the current condition of technical infrastructure of telemedicine, it is suggested that authorities make decisions and policies to develop and improve technical infrastructure for providing more advanced services in the field of telemedicine.

  16. QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE INVESTMENT PROJECT CREATION OR RENOVATION TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Gasilov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Summary. The paper proposes a method of determining the quantitative assessment of the investment project of reconstruction of the facility or transport infrastructure, taking into account the impact on both the vehicle and non-transport effect. Among the most significant socio- economic benefits of modernization and development of the road network of the federal and regional significance include: improving and improving and improving the social conditions of the population , increased economic activity , reduction of transport costs in the price of goods and services, reducing the negative impact of transport and road complex environment. Modelling of toxic pollutant emissions for the transport stream to optimize road to reconstruct existing infrastructure by minimizing environmental damage. Kinematic model of traffic flow, which allows to express the parameters of toxic pollution through directly observable quantities, based on the concept of cellular automata , augmented parameters governing the organization of traffic. Necessary to determine the parameters of motion so that the average flow rate was in the optimal range (60 - 90 km / h. Multicriteria optimization problem so requires collecting and analyzing vast and diverse information of the following types: topographic, demographic, social, economic, environmental, transport. As follows from the calculations, the doses of all types of toxic effects, per unit length of the road, increase significantly in the fall an average speed of traffic flow. Thus, modeling of toxic emissions transport stream allows one hand to optimize the traffic in the existing infrastructure and, on the other hand, to optimize the construction and reconstruction of infrastructure.

  17. Significance of vulnerability assessment in establishment of Hainan provincal disaster medical system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Min; Lu, Chuanzhu; Son, Wei; Miao, Junhong; Ding, Yipeng; Li, Longhe; Zhang, Leilei; Zhao, Nin; Hu, Bijiang; Zhang, Yunjun

    2011-08-01

    Hainan is an island province in south China with a high frequency of unconventional emergencies due to its special geographic location and national military defense role. Given the limited transportation route from Hainan to the outside world, self-rescue is more important to Hainan Province than other provinces in China and it is therefore imperative to establish an independent, scientific as well as efficient provincal disaster medical system in Hainan. The regulatory role for vulnerability analysis/assessment has been demonstrated in establisment of disaster medical system in varoius countries and or regions. In this paper, we attempt to describe/propose how to adopt vulnerability assessment through mathematical modeling of major biophysical social vulnerability factors to establish an independent, scientific, effieicnt and comprehensive provincial disaster medical system in Hainan. Copyright © 2011 Hainan Medical College. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. A novel critical infrastructure resilience assessment approach using dynamic Bayesian networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Baoping; Xie, Min; Liu, Yonghong; Liu, Yiliu; Ji, Renjie; Feng, Qiang

    2017-10-01

    The word resilience originally originates from the Latin word "resiliere", which means to "bounce back". The concept has been used in various fields, such as ecology, economics, psychology, and society, with different definitions. In the field of critical infrastructure, although some resilience metrics are proposed, they are totally different from each other, which are determined by the performances of the objects of evaluation. Here we bridge the gap by developing a universal critical infrastructure resilience metric from the perspective of reliability engineering. A dynamic Bayesian networks-based assessment approach is proposed to calculate the resilience value. A series, parallel and voting system is used to demonstrate the application of the developed resilience metric and assessment approach.

  19. [Life cycle assessment of the infrastructure for hydrogen sources of fuel cell vehicles].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Wen; Wang, Shujuan; Ni, Weidou; Chen, Changhe

    2003-05-01

    In order to promote the application of life cycle assessment and provide references for China to make the project of infrastructure for hydrogen sources of fuel cell vehicles in the near future, 10 feasible plans of infrastructure for hydrogen sources of fuel cell vehicles were designed according to the current technologies of producing, storing and transporting hydrogen. Then life cycle assessment was used as a tool to evaluate the environmental performances of the 10 plans. The standard indexes of classified environmental impacts of every plan were gotten and sensitivity analysis for several parameters were carried out. The results showed that the best plan was that hydrogen will be produced by natural gas steam reforming in central factory, then transported to refuelling stations through pipelines, and filled to fuel cell vehicles using hydrogen gas at last.

  20. Cyber Infrastructure: The Forgotten Vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-22

    forms of entrepreneurship , advances in technology, the spread of free speech, and social networks that energize the economy.112 In February 2013...95% of all internet traffic in the U.S.150 This becomes complicated when the biggest operators of those cables was sold to an Asian firm

  1. (Non-) robustness of vulnerability assessments to climate change: An application to New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Mario Andres; Bucaram, Santiago; Renteria, Willington

    2017-12-01

    Assessments of vulnerability to climate change are a key element to inform climate policy and research. Assessments based on the aggregation of indicators have a strong appeal for their simplicity but are at risk of over-simplification and uncertainty. This paper explores the non-robustness of indicators-based assessments to changes in assumptions on the degree of substitution or compensation between indicators. Our case study is a nationwide assessment for New Zealand. We found that the ranking of geographic areas is sensitive to different parameterisations of the aggregation function, that is, areas that are categorised as highly vulnerable may switch to the least vulnerable category even with respect to the same climate hazards and population groups. Policy implications from the assessments are then compromised. Though indicators-based approaches may help on identifying drivers of vulnerability, there are weak grounds to use them to recommend mitigation or adaptation decisions given the high level of uncertainty because of non-robustness. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Catchment-scale vulnerability assessment of groundwater pollution from diffuse sources using the DRASTIC method: a case study

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Yang, Y. S; Wang, L

    2010-01-01

    The catchment-scale groundwater vulnerability assessment that delineates zones representing different levels of groundwater susceptibility to contaminants from diffuse agricultural sources has become...

  3. Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species' climate-change vulnerability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wade, Alisa A; Hand, Brian K; Kovach, Ryan P; Luikart, Gordon; Whited, Diane C; Muhlfeld, Clint C

    2017-02-01

    Climate-change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are valuable tools for assessing species' vulnerability to climatic changes, yet failure to include measures of adaptive capacity and to account for sources of uncertainty may limit their effectiveness. We took a more comprehensive approach that incorporates exposure, sensitivity, and capacity to adapt to climate change. We applied our approach to anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and nonanadromous bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), threatened salmonids within the Columbia River Basin (U.S.A.). We quantified exposure on the basis of scenarios of future stream temperature and flow, and we represented sensitivity and capacity to adapt to climate change with metrics of habitat quality, demographic condition, and genetic diversity. Both species were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change at low elevations and in their southernmost habitats. However, vulnerability rankings varied widely depending on the factors (climate, habitat, demographic, and genetic) included in the CCVA and often differed for the 2 species at locations where they were sympatric. Our findings illustrate that CCVA results are highly sensitive to data inputs and that spatial differences can complicate multispecies conservation. Based on our results, we suggest that CCVAs be considered within a broader conceptual and computational framework and be used to refine hypotheses, guide research, and compare plausible scenarios of species' vulnerability to climate change. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  4. Multidimensional Approach for Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment: Framing the Territorial Impacts in Two Municipalities in Portugal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavares, Alexandre Oliveira; Barros, José Leandro; Santos, Angela

    2017-04-01

    This study presents a new multidimensional methodology for tsunami vulnerability assessment that combines the morphological, structural, social, and tax component of vulnerability. This new approach can be distinguished from previous methodologies that focused primarily on the evaluation of potentially affected buildings and did not use tsunami numerical modeling. The methodology was applied to the Figueira da Foz and Vila do Bispo municipalities in Portugal. For each area, the potential tsunami-inundated areas were calculated considering the 1755 Lisbon tsunami, which is the greatest disaster caused by natural hazards that ever occurred in Portugal. Furthermore, the four components of the vulnerability were calculated to obtain a composite vulnerability index. This methodology enables us to differentiate the two areas in their vulnerability, highlighting the characteristics of the territory components. This methodology can be a starting point for the creation of a local assessment framework at the municipal scale related to tsunami risk. In addition, the methodology is an important support for the different local stakeholders. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Transactional approach in assessment of operational performance of companies in transport infrastructure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valery Dubrovsky

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Offer an alternative method to assess operational performance of companies in transport infrastructure of a region by making a comparison between transaction costs. The method is supposed to be a cross-functional and possibly applied to an analysis of economic entities of a different order (country, region, sector, companies while evaluating “viscosity” / complexity of the outside and the inside. Design/methodology/approach: The paper includes an analysis of various methodological approaches to assess a development level of the transport infrastructure in a region. Within the author's approach and for purposed of the research, an index of transaction capacity or the transactionalness index is proposed, which determines a level of transaction costs calculated against the cost of production and revenue. The approach is piloted using the region-wise consolidated financial data of companies involved in the Russian transport infrastructure for 2005/2013. Findings: The proposed alternative way to measure corporate operating efficiency has proved its academic consistency. A specific comparison between the transaction costs using the transactionalness index allows first to identify companies or regions/sectors, where there is excess complexity of economical communication in bargaining. Secondly, the index does not only point out indirectly to a degree of development in the institutional environment, but also the infrastructure (the transport one in the example given. Third, the transactionalness level may say of uncertainty and risks. As an addition to theoretical and methodological aspects of transaction costs, the authors justify an approach to their size estimation, as well as their differentiation dividing them into two groups: those of a natural type and a background type. In a course of their discussion, the authors have concluded that there are such transaction costs in place, which are standard in a manner of speaking. Originality

  6. Assessing Tsunami Vulnerabilities of Geographies with Shallow Water Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aras, Rifat; Shen, Yuzhong

    2012-01-01

    Tsunami preparedness is crucial for saving human lives in case of disasters that involve massive water movement. In this work, we develop a framework for visual assessment of tsunami preparedness of geographies. Shallow water equations (also called Saint Venant equations) are a set of hyperbolic partial differential equations that are derived by depth-integrating the Navier-Stokes equations and provide a great abstraction of water masses that have lower depths compared to their free surface area. Our specific contribution in this study is to use Microsoft's XNA Game Studio to import underwater and shore line geographies, create different tsunami scenarios, and visualize the propagation of the waves and their impact on the shore line geography. Most importantly, we utilized the computational power of graphical processing units (GPUs) as HLSL based shader files and delegated all of the heavy computations to the GPU. Finally, we also conducted a validation study, in which we have tested our model against a controlled shallow water experiment. We believe that such a framework with an easy to use interface that is based on readily available software libraries, which are widely available and easily distributable, would encourage not only researchers, but also educators to showcase ideas.

  7. Seismic Vulnerability Assessment Rest House Building TA-16-41

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cuesta, Isabel [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Salmon, Michael W. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2003-10-01

    The purpose of this report is to present the results of the evaluation completed on the Rest House Facility (TA-16-4111) in support of hazard analysis for a Documented Safety Assessment (DSA). The Rest House facility has been evaluated to verify the structural response to seismic, wind, and snow loads in support of the DynEx DSA. The structural analyses consider the structure and the following systems and/or components inside the facility as requested by facility management: cranes, lighting protection system, and fire protection system. The facility has been assigned to Natural Phenomena Hazards (NPH) Performance Category (PC) –3. The facility structure was evaluated to PC-3 criteria because it serves to confine hazardous material, and in the event of an accident, the facility cannot fail or collapse. Seismicinduced failure of the cranes, lighting, and fire-protection systems according to DOE-STD-1021-93 (Ref. 1) “may result in adverse release consequences greater than safety-class Structures, Systems, and Components (SSC) Evaluation Guideline limits but much less than those associated with PC-4 SSC.” Therefore, these items will be evaluated to PC-3 criteria as well. This report presents the results of those analyses and suggests recommendations to improve the seismic capacity of the systems and components cited above.

  8. Appendix: Assessment of watershed vulnerability to climate change - Pilot National Forest reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael J. Furniss; Ken B. Roby; Dan Cenderelli; John Chatel; Caty F. Clifton; Alan Clingenpeel; Polly E. Hays; Dale Higgins; Ken Hodges; Carol Howe; Laura Jungst; Joan Louie; Christine Mai; Ralph Martinez; Kerry Overton; Brian P. Staab; Rory Steinke; Mark. Weinhold

    2013-01-01

    Assessment of watershed vulnerability to climate change. Pilot National Forest reports: Gallatin National Forest, Helena National Forest, Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre, and Gunnison National Forests, White River National Forest, Coconino National Forest, Sawtooth National Forest, Shasta-Trinity National Forest, Umatilla National Forest, Umatilla National Forest, Ouachita...

  9. The importance of assessing climate change vulnerability to address species conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karen E. Bagne; Megan M. Friggens; Sharon J. Coe; Deborah M. Finch

    2014-01-01

    Species conservation often prioritizes attention on a small subset of "special status" species at high risk of extinction, but actions based on current lists of special status species may not effectively moderate biodiversity loss if climate change alters threats. Assessments of climate change vulnerability may provide a method to enhance identification of...

  10. Improving the role of vulnerability assessments In decision support for effective climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda A. Joyce; Constance I. Millar

    2014-01-01

    Vulnerability assessments (VA) have been proposed as an initial step in a process to develop and implement adaptation management for climate change in forest ecosystems. Scientific understanding of the effects of climate change is an ever-accumulating knowledge base. Synthesizing information from this knowledge base in the context of our understanding of ecosystem...

  11. Case Study 3: Species vulnerability assessment for the Middle Rio Grande, New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deborah M. Finch; Megan Friggens; Karen Bagne

    2011-01-01

    This case study describes a method for scoring terrestrial species that have potential to be vulnerable to climate change. The assessment tool seeks to synthesize complex information related to projected climate changes into a predictive tool for species conservation. The tool was designed to aid managers in prioritizing species management actions in response to...

  12. Security and Vulnerability Assessment of Social Media Sites: An Exploratory Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jensen; Zhao, Sherry Y.

    2015-01-01

    While the growing popularity of social media has brought many benefits to society, it has also resulted in privacy and security threats. The authors assessed the security and vulnerability of 50 social media sites. The findings indicate that most sites (a) posted privacy and security policies but only a minority stated clearly their execution of…

  13. A method to assess multi-modal hazmat transport security vulnerabilities: Hazmat transport SVA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, G.L.L.; Dullaert, W.E.H.

    2013-01-01

    The suggested Hazmat transport Security Vulnerability Assessment (SVA) methodology presents a user-friendly approach to determine relative security risk levels of the different modes of hazardous freight transport (i.e., road, railway, inland waterways and pipeline transportation). First, transport

  14. Safety, mobility and comfort assessment methodologies of intelligent transport systems for vulnerable road users

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Malone, K.; Silla, A.; Johanssen, C.; Bell, D.

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: This paper describes the modification and development of methodologies to assess the impacts of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) applications for Vulnerable Road users (VRUs) in the domains of safety, mobility and comfort. This effort was carried out in the context of the VRUITS

  15. Combining demographic and genetic factors to assess population vulnerability in stream species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erin L, Landguth; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Jones, Leslie W.; Waples, Robin S.; Whited, Diane; Lowe, Winsor H.; Lucotch, John; Neville, Helen; Luikart, Gordon

    2014-01-01

    Accelerating climate change and other cumulative stressors create an urgent need to understand the influence of environmental variation and landscape features on the connectivity and vulnerability of freshwater species. Here, we introduce a novel modeling framework for aquatic systems that integrates spatially explicit, individual-based, demographic and genetic (demogenetic) assessments with environmental variables. To show its potential utility, we simulated a hypothetical network of 19 migratory riverine populations (e.g., salmonids) using a riverscape connectivity and demogenetic model (CDFISH). We assessed how stream resistance to movement (a function of water temperature, fluvial distance, and physical barriers) might influence demogenetic connectivity, and hence, population vulnerability. We present demographic metrics (abundance, immigration, and change in abundance) and genetic metrics (diversity, differentiation, and change in differentiation), and combine them into a single vulnerability index for identifying populations at risk of extirpation. We considered four realistic scenarios that illustrate the relative sensitivity of these metrics for early detection of reduced connectivity: (1) maximum resistance due to high water temperatures throughout the network, (2) minimum resistance due to low water temperatures throughout the network, (3) increased resistance at a tributary junction caused by a partial barrier, and (4) complete isolation of a tributary, leaving resident individuals only. We then applied this demogenetic framework using empirical data for a bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) metapopulation in the upper Flathead River system, Canada and USA, to assess how current and predicted future stream warming may influence population vulnerability. Results suggest that warmer water temperatures and associated barriers to movement (e.g., low flows, dewatering) are predicted to fragment suitable habitat for migratory salmonids, resulting in the loss

  16. Groundwater vulnerability assessment: from overlay methods to statistical methods in the Lombardy Plain area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefania Stevenazzi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater is among the most important freshwater resources. Worldwide, aquifers are experiencing an increasing threat of pollution from urbanization, industrial development, agricultural activities and mining enterprise. Thus, practical actions, strategies and solutions to protect groundwater from these anthropogenic sources are widely required. The most efficient tool, which helps supporting land use planning, while protecting groundwater from contamination, is represented by groundwater vulnerability assessment. Over the years, several methods assessing groundwater vulnerability have been developed: overlay and index methods, statistical and process-based methods. All methods are means to synthesize complex hydrogeological information into a unique document, which is a groundwater vulnerability map, useable by planners, decision and policy makers, geoscientists and the public. Although it is not possible to identify an approach which could be the best one for all situations, the final product should always be scientific defensible, meaningful and reliable. Nevertheless, various methods may produce very different results at any given site. Thus, reasons for similarities and differences need to be deeply investigated. This study demonstrates the reliability and flexibility of a spatial statistical method to assess groundwater vulnerability to contamination at a regional scale. The Lombardy Plain case study is particularly interesting for its long history of groundwater monitoring (quality and quantity, availability of hydrogeological data, and combined presence of various anthropogenic sources of contamination. Recent updates of the regional water protection plan have raised the necessity of realizing more flexible, reliable and accurate groundwater vulnerability maps. A comparison of groundwater vulnerability maps obtained through different approaches and developed in a time span of several years has demonstrated the relevance of the

  17. SURVEY METHODS FOR SEISMIC VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL MASONRY BUILDINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ballarin

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available On 20th and 29th of May 2012, two powerful earthquakes struck northern Italy. The epicentres were recorded respectively in Finale Emilia (magnitude 5.9 Ml and Medolla (magnitude 5.8 Ml in the province of Modena, though the earthquake was formed by a series of seismic shakes located in the district of the Emilian Po Valley, mainly in the provinces of Modena, Ferrara, Mantova, Reggio Emilia, Bologna and Rovigo. Many monuments in the city of Mantova were hit by the earthquake and, among these, Palazzo Ducale with the well-known Castello di San Giorgio which host the noteworthy “Camera degli Sposi”. This building, the most famous of the city, was so damaged that it was closed for more than one year after the earthquake. The emblem of the Palace and Mantova itself, the previously cited “Camera degli Sposi” realized by Andrea Mantegna, was damaged and all the economic and social life of the city was deeply affected. Immediately after the earthquake, the Soprintendenza per i Beni Architettonici e Paesaggistici of Brescia, Cremona and Mantova establish an agreement with the University Iuav of Venice, requiring an analysis and assessment of the damage in order to proceed with the development of an intervention project. This activity turned out to be very important not only from the point of view of the recovery of the architectural and artistic heritage but also because the city's economy is based primarily on tourism. The closure of one of the most important monuments of Mantova has led to a significant and alarming decline in the government income.

  18. [The assessment of vulnerability to floods in Guangdong province at district level].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Qi; Liu, Tao; Zhang, Yong-hui; Luo, Yuan; Wei, Yao; Xiao, Jian-peng; Zeng, Si-qing; Ma, Wen-jun

    2012-11-01

    To evaluate the vulnerability to floods in Guangdong province at district level. Data were collected from the sixth census, the 2010 Statistical Yearbook of Guangdong, the 2010 Health Statistics Yearbook of Guangdong and China Disease Prevention and Control information systems, etc. The weight of each indicator was determined based on subjective method and objective method respectively; and finally the results of the two methods were compared. 13 indicators were selected for the assessment of vulnerability to floods, including 6 sensitivity indicators, 5 adaptability indicators and 2 exposure indicators. Indicators with large weight (subjective weight/objective weight) were the proportion of population older than 65 years old (0.31/0.30), the proportion of population older than 65 years old (0.16/0.23), infant mortality rate (0.18/0.20), the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita (0.33/0.21), the proportion of illiterate in the population older than 15 years old (0.19/0.28), history frequency of floods (0.75/0.75). The mean vulnerability index (VI) calculated by subjective method was 0.35 with the standard deviation of 0.10; the mean vulnerability index calculated by objective method was 0.31 with the standard deviation of 0.08. The two weighting methods showed consistent results of vulnerability index (ICC = 0.975, P 0.50 or objective VI > 0.40 should pay more attention to floods, including parts of the coastal areas, Beijiang River Basin, the eastern tributary area of Dongjiang River and the northern part of Pearl River Delta. Dapu district of Meizhou (0.55/0.45), Dianbai district and Maogang district of Maoming (0.54/0.48) were most vulnerable. Districts of Heyuan, Dongguan, Zhaoqing and Huizhou were less vulnerable, Yuancheng district of Heyuan showed least vulnerable to floods (0.15/0.12) followed by Dongguan (0.18/0.16), Duanzhou district (0.18/0.16) and Guangning (0.17/0.15) district of Zhaoqing. The score of indicators differed among different level

  19. 77 FR 68795 - Protected Critical Infrastructure Information (PCII) Office Self-Assessment Questionnaire

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-16

    ... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY [Docket No. DHS-2012-0046] Protected Critical Infrastructure...), Protected Critical Infrastructure Information (PCII) Program will submit the following Information... of critical infrastructure and protected systems. IICD administers the PCII Program. The PCII Program...

  20. Social vulnerability assessment using spatial multi-criteria analysis (SEVI model and the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI model – a case study for Bucharest, Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Armaș

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In recent decades, the development of vulnerability frameworks has enlarged the research in the natural hazards field. Despite progress in developing the vulnerability studies, there is more to investigate regarding the quantitative approach and clarification of the conceptual explanation of the social component. At the same time, some disaster-prone areas register limited attention. Among these, Romania's capital city, Bucharest, is the most earthquake-prone capital in Europe and the tenth in the world. The location is used to assess two multi-criteria methods for aggregating complex indicators: the social vulnerability index (SoVI model and the spatial multi-criteria social vulnerability index (SEVI model. Using the data of the 2002 census we reduce the indicators through a factor analytical approach to create the indices and examine if they bear any resemblance to the known vulnerability of Bucharest city through an exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA. This is a critical issue that may provide better understanding of the social vulnerability in the city and appropriate information for authorities and stakeholders to consider in their decision making. The study emphasizes that social vulnerability is an urban process that increased in a post-communist Bucharest, raising the concern that the population at risk lacks the capacity to cope with disasters. The assessment of the indices indicates a significant and similar clustering pattern of the census administrative units, with an overlap between the clustering areas affected by high social vulnerability. Our proposed SEVI model suggests adjustment sensitivity, useful in the expert-opinion accuracy.

  1. Exposure and vulnerability assessment of buildings extracted from lidar derived datasets in Bucao River floodplains, Zambales, Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paz-Alberto, Annie Melinda; Ramos, Gloria N.; Espiritu, Jo Adrianne; Mapanao, Kathrina M.; Lao, Ranilo B.

    2017-09-01

    The Philippines has a geographic and geological setting that make it prone to various hazards including weather and climate-related. It is usually strongly affected by monsoon and typhoon occurrences that cause floods due to torrential rains that causes great risks in man's life and properties, resulting in a significant national loss. Strategies for disaster prevention to protect human lives, properties and social infrastructure is therefore necessary. Different important parameters in disaster risk management such as earth observations, Light Detection and Ranging and Geographic Information System were integrated and utilized in this study. This study dealt with mapping and assessment of buildings that might possibly be exposed and vulnerable to flooding based on the simulated flood maps at different rainfall scenarios in Bucao River Basin. The assessment was done through GIS overlay analysis of the CLSU PHIL-LiDAR 1 Project outputs, the 3D building GIS database and flood hazard maps. Results of this study were series of maps with statistics at different rainfall scenarios. From 23,097 building features extracted, 10,118 buildings, 4,258 buildings and 7,433 buildings were the identified highest number of buildings exposed to flooding and a total of 2,427 buildings, 3,914 buildings and 7,204 buildings from the exposed were identified that had high vulnerabilities in terms of height at low, medium and high hazards of 100 year return period, respectively. Through these maps, it is easier to disseminate information that is more realistic to the residents about the hazardous areas and to help them act on warning and evacuating measures.

  2. Getting the scale right: a comparison of analytical methods for vulnerability assessment and household-level targeting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen, L; Downing, T E

    2001-06-01

    This paper introduces broad concepts of vulnerability, food security and famine. It argues that the concepts and theories driving development and implementation of vulnerability assessment tools are related to their utility. The review concludes that socio-geographic scale is a key issue, and challenge. It analyses three vulnerability assessment (VA) methods, using Ethiopia as a case study. Facing the challenges of vulnerability assessment and early warning requires providing accurate information at the required scale, useful for multiple decision-makers within realistic institutional capacities.

  3. Exploratory assessment of groundwater vulnerability to pollution in Abi, southeastern Nigeria, using geophysical and geological techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akpan, Anthony E; Ebong, Ebong D; Emeka, Chimezie N

    2015-04-01

    The geophysical-based integrated electrical conductivity (IEC) and the groundwater hydraulic confinement-overlying strata-depth to water table (GOD) techniques were used to assess vulnerability levels of aquifers and the extent of aquifer protection in Abi, Nigeria. The IEC indices was generated from constrained one dimensional (1D) inversion of vertical electrical sounding (VES) and two dimensional (2D) electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data, acquired randomly in the area. The GOD indices were sourced from existing geologic data within the area. Results showed that IEC values vary from 2.0 S in the strongly protected areas. The GOD indices vary from vulnerable areas to 0.6 in the highly vulnerable areas. Thus, the groundwater resources in the area need to be properly managed for sustainability and such management practices have been suggested.

  4. Assessing social capacity and vulnerability of private households to natural hazards - integrating psychological and governance factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werg, J.; Grothmann, T.; Schmidt, P.

    2013-06-01

    People are unequally affected by extreme weather events in terms of mortality, morbidity and financial losses; this is the case not only for developing, but also for industrialized countries. Previous research has established indicators for identifying who is particularly vulnerable and why, focusing on socio-demographic factors such as income, age, gender, health and minority status. However, these factors can only partly explain the large disparities in the extent to which people are affected by natural hazards. Moreover, these factors are usually not alterable in the short to medium term, which limits their usefulness for strategies of reducing social vulnerability and building social capacity. Based on a literature review and an expert survey, we propose an approach for refining assessments of social vulnerability and building social capacity by integrating psychological and governance factors.

  5. SOCIAL RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF HAZARDOUS HYDROLOGICAL PHENOMENA IN RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stepan P. Zemtsov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Methods and results of social vulnerability and risk assessment are presented in the article. It is explored if modified methodology of the United Nations University (World risk index can be used on different scale levels: regional, municipal and settlement. It was estimated that, despite the low value of the World risk index for Russia, southern coastal and mountain regions have high values of the risk index for hydrological phenomena because of higher frequency of the hazardous events, higher population density, and high social vulnerability. The Krasnodar region (in the south-western part of Russia was chosen for a detailed analysis. A municipal risk index was developed, and municipal districts in the Kuban rivermouth were identified as territories with the highest risk. For verification of the index results, the percentage of vulnerable people was estimated based on opinion polls. The results can be used in further risk calculation for other hazardous phenomena.

  6. Assessing social vulnerability to drought in South Africa: Policy implication for drought risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fumiso Muyambo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article was to assess and identify social vulnerability of communal farmers to drought in the O.R. Tambo district in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa using a survey data and social vulnerability index (SoVI. Eleven social vulnerability indicators were identified using Bogardi, Birkman and Cardona conceptual framework. The result found that an SoVI estimated for O.R. Tambo district was very high with a Likert scale of 5 for cultural values and practices, security or safety, social networks, social dependence, preparedness strategies and psychological stress attributed for the high value of social vulnerability to drought. Indigenous knowledge and education had an SoVI value of 2, which was of low vulnerability, contributing positively to resilience to drought. The study also found that government involvement in drought risk reduction is limited; as a result, the study recommends that a national, provincial and district municipalities policy on drought risk reduction and mitigation should be developed.

  7. Comparative assessment of lowland and highland Smallholder farmers' vulnerability to climate variability in Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayal, D. Y., Sr.; Abshare, M. W. M.; Desta, S. D.; Filho, W. L.

    2015-12-01

    Desalegn Yayeh Ayal P.O.BOX 150129 Addis Ababa University Ethiopia Mobil +251910824784 Abstract Smallholder farmers' near term scenario (2010-2039) vulnerability nature and magnitude was examined using twenty-two exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity vulnerability indicators. Assessment of smallholder farmers' vulnerability to climate variability revealed the importance of comprehending exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity induces. Due to differences in level of change in rainfall, temperature, drought frequency, their environmental interaction and variations on adaptive capacity the nature and magnitude of smallholder farmers vulnerability to physical, biological and epidemiological challenges of crop and livestock production varied within and across agro-ecologies. Highlanders' sensitive relates with high population density, erosion and crop disease and pest damage occurrence. Whereas lowlanders will be more sensitive to high crop disease and pest damage, provenance of livestock disease, absence of alternative water sources, less diversified agricultural practices. However, with little variations in the magnitude and nature of vulnerability, both highlanders and lowlanders are victims of climate variability and change. Given the ever increasing population, temperature and unpredictable nature of rainfall variability, the study concluded that future adaptation strategies should capitalize on preparing smallholder farmers for both extremes- excess rainfall and flooding on the one hand and severe drought on the other.

  8. Groundwater vulnerability assessment in agricultural areas using a modified DRASTIC model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadat-Noori, Mahmood; Ebrahimi, Kumars

    2016-01-01

    Groundwater contamination is a major concern for groundwater resource managers worldwide. We evaluated groundwater pollution potential by producing a vulnerability map of an aquifer using a modified Depth to water, Net recharge, Aquifer media, Soil media, Topography, Impact of vadose zone, and Hydraulic conductivity (DRASTIC) model within a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment. The proposed modification which incorporated the use of statistical techniques optimizes the rating function of the DRASTIC model parameters, to obtain a more accurate vulnerability map. The new rates were computed using the relationships between the parameters and point data chloride concentrations in groundwater. The model was applied on Saveh-Nobaran plain in central Iran, and results showed that the coefficient of determination (R (2)) between the point data and the relevant vulnerability map increased significantly from 0.52 to 0.78 after modification. As compared to the original DRASTIC model, the modified version produced better vulnerability zonation. Additionally, single-parameter and parameter removal sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the relative importance of each DRASTIC parameter. The results from both analyses revealed that the vadose zone is the most sensitive parameter influencing the variability of the aquifers' vulnerability index. Based on the results, for non-point source pollution in agricultural areas, using the modified DRASTIC model is efficient compared to the original model. The proposed method can be effective for future groundwater assessment and plain-land management where agricultural activities are dominant.

  9. Vulnerability Index Assessment Using Neural Networks (viann): a Case Study of Nicosia, Cyprus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dindar, H.; Dimililer, K.; Özdağ, Ö. C.; Atalar, C.; Akgün, M.; Özyankı, A.

    2017-11-01

    Many scholars have used microtremor applications to evaluate the vulnerability index. In order to reach fast and reliable results, microtremor measurement is preferred as it is a cost-effective method. In this paper, the vulnerability index will be reviewed by utilization of microtremor measurement results in Nicosia city. 100 measurement stations have been used to collect microtremor data and the data were analysed by using Nakamura's method. The value of vulnerability index (Kg) has been evaluated by using the fundamental frequency and amplification factor. The results obtained by the artificial neural network (ANN) will be compared with microtremor measurements. Vulnerability Index Assessment using Neural Networks (VIANN) is a backpropagation neural network, which uses the original input microtremor Horizontal Vertical Spectrum Ratio (HVSR) spectrum set. A 3-layer back propagation neural network which contains 4096 input, 28 hidden and 3 output neurons are used in this suggested system. The output neurons are classified according to acceleration sensitivity zone, velocity zones, or displacement zones. The sites are classified by their vulnerability index values using binary coding: [1 0 0] for the acceleration sensitive zone, [0 1 0] for the velocity sensitive zone, and [0 0 1] for the displacement sensitive zone.

  10. VULNERABILITY INDEX ASSESSMENT USING NEURAL NETWORKS (VIANN: A CASE STUDY OF NICOSIA, CYPRUS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Dindar

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Many scholars have used microtremor applications to evaluate the vulnerability index. In order to reach fast and reliable results, microtremor measurement is preferred as it is a cost-effective method. In this paper, the vulnerability index will be reviewed by utilization of microtremor measurement results in Nicosia city. 100 measurement stations have been used to collect microtremor data and the data were analysed by using Nakamura’s method. The value of vulnerability index (Kg has been evaluated by using the fundamental frequency and amplification factor. The results obtained by the artificial neural network (ANN will be compared with microtremor measurements. Vulnerability Index Assessment using Neural Networks (VIANN is a backpropagation neural network, which uses the original input microtremor Horizontal Vertical Spectrum Ratio (HVSR spectrum set. A 3-layer back propagation neural network which contains 4096 input, 28 hidden and 3 output neurons are used in this suggested system. The output neurons are classified according to acceleration sensitivity zone, velocity zones, or displacement zones. The sites are classified by their vulnerability index values using binary coding: [1 0 0] for the acceleration sensitive zone, [0 1 0] for the velocity sensitive zone, and [0 0 1] for the displacement sensitive zone.

  11. Assessing groundwater vulnerability in the Kinshasa region, DR Congo, using a calibrated DRASTIC model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mfumu Kihumba, Antoine; Vanclooster, Marnik; Ndembo Longo, Jean

    2017-02-01

    This study assessed the vulnerability of groundwater against pollution in the Kinshasa region, DR Congo, as a support of a groundwater protection program. The parametric vulnerability model (DRASTIC) was modified and calibrated to predict the intrinsic vulnerability as well as the groundwater pollution risk. The method uses groundwater body specific parameters for the calibration of the factor ratings and weightings of the original DRASTIC model. These groundwater specific parameters are inferred from the statistical relation between the original DRASTIC model and observed nitrate pollution for a specific period. In addition, site-specific land use parameters are integrated into the method. The method is fully embedded in a Geographic Information System (GIS). Following these modifications, the correlation coefficient between groundwater pollution risk and observed nitrate concentrations for the 2013-2014 survey improved from r = 0.42, for the original DRASTIC model, to r = 0.61 for the calibrated model. As a way to validate this pollution risk map, observed nitrate concentrations from another survey (2008) are compared to pollution risk indices showing a good degree of coincidence with r = 0.51. The study shows that a calibration of a vulnerability model is recommended when vulnerability maps are used for groundwater resource management and land use planning at the regional scale and that it is adapted to a specific area.

  12. A New Approach to Feasibility Risk Assessment within Transport Infrastructure Appraisal

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2013-01-01

    are, hereby, often basing their decisions on wrongful material. The presented approach to transport infrastructure appraisal is to include uncertainties and risks in the evaluation. Correspondingly, the handling of uncertainties and risk within transport project assessment are often made up...... to decision support based upon so-called reference class forecasting using historical information from similar past projects. The scheme is made evident through a brand new database sample (UPD: the UNITE Project Database) which contains almost 200 specific European transport infrastructure projects. Hence......, the approach will be tested and further explored upon a fixed case example depicting a new fixed link between Elsinore (Denmark) and Helsingborg (Sweden) revealing a severe decrease in economical return including relevant UPD information. Finally, a conclusion and perspective of the further work...

  13. Assessing mental health and violence on college campuses using the vulnerability model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponsford, Lisa R

    2016-04-01

    Violence on college campuses has become increasingly more common than in previous years. Nearly 73% of students with a mental health condition living on campus experience a mental health crisis. College students arriving on campuses today come with different needs, expectations for services, and with different risk factors than in previous years. Advanced practice registered nurses (APRNs) in college health settings have the ability to recognize these changing trends and assist with improving the mental health of this population. A critical analysis of an exemplar college campus is explored using the vulnerability model to assess risks that can lead to unnecessary and preventable violence on college campuses. The vulnerability model is a comprehensive approach utilized to guide an assessment to identify both individual and community risk factors influencing health and healthcare environments. The use of the vulnerability model illustrated in this article reveals its usefulness in identifying the risk and needs for this population. APRNs and student health centers are positioned well to utilize the vulnerability model in assessing the needs of college campuses to improve outcomes of students. ©2016 American Association of Nurse Practitioners.

  14. Assessment of the Potential for Privatizing Fuel Infrastructure at Military Installations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gallay, David

    1998-01-01

    .... The military services are responsible for the maintenance and repair of the fuel infrastructure on their installations, and DLA is responsible for the infrastructures' renovation or major construction...

  15. Assessment of Large Transport Infrastructure Projects: the CBA-DK model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Banister, David

    2008-01-01

    in feasibility risk assessment moving from point to interval results. Decision support as illustrated in this paper aims to provide assistance in the development and ultimately the choice of action while accounting for the uncertainties surrounding transport appraisal schemes. The modelling framework......The scope of this paper is to present a newly developed decision support model to assess transport infrastructure projects: CBA-DK. The model makes use of conventional cost-benefit analysis resulting in aggregated single point estimates and quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation...

  16. Assessment of socio-economic potential of regions for placement of the logistic infrastructure objects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandr Nelevich Rakhmangulov

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Currently, at the regional markets, there is a disproportion between the growing demand for transportation and logistics services and the availability of facilities needed for their implementation, which is because the high logistics costs and does not meet the strategic objectives of the country to create a common economic space. The article describes the system of market factors that have the most significant influence on the distribution of logistics facilities. Study and evaluation of potential changes in the region of logistics facility disposition are proposed to perform using simulation techniques and statistical data analysis. The article presents the engineered multivariate statistical models that control the kind and effect of correlation between socio-economic development factors of regions, as well as a simulation model, which allows to assess the dynamics of these factors and predict demand for logistics infrastructure facilities. The choice of region (subject dislocation of the logistics center is proposed to realize by the developed technique based on the calculation of the integrated index that takes into account differences in the level of socio-economic and infrastructural development of the regions. This technique in conjunction with a simulation model is applicable to a variety of administrative and territorial levels (region, city and allows to take into account both the current demand in the logistics infrastructure and demand dynamics. The technique given in the article can be used to assess the level of attractiveness of the Russian Federation in the development of public and private investment projects for the development of logistics infrastructure

  17. Towards a more sustainable transport infrastructure: how spatial geological data can be utilized to improve early stage Life cycle assessment of road infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsson, Caroline; Miliutenko, Sofiia; Björklund, Anna; Mörtberg, Ulla; Olofsson, Bo; Toller, Susanna

    2017-04-01

    Environmental impacts during the life cycle stages of transport infrastructure are substantial, including among other greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as resource and energy use. For transport infrastructure to be sustainable, such issues need to be integrated in the planning process. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is required by the European Union (EU) in order to ensure that all environmental aspects are considered during planning of road infrastructure projects. As a part of this process, the European Commission has suggested the use of the tool life cycle assessment (LCA) for assessing life cycle energy use and GHG emissions. When analyzing life cycle impacts of the road infrastructure itself, it was shown that earthworks and materials used for the road construction have a big share in the total energy use and GHG emissions. Those aspects are largely determined by the geological conditions at the site of construction: parameters such as soil thickness, slope, bedrock quality and soil type. The geological parameters determine the amounts of earthworks (i.e. volumes of soil and rock that will be excavated and blasted), transportation need for excavated materials as well as the availability of building materials. The study presents a new geographic information system (GIS)-based approach for utilizing spatial geological data in three dimensions (i.e. length, width and depth) in order to improve estimates on earthworks during the early stages of road infrastructure planning. Three main methodological steps were undertaken: mass balance calculation, life cycle inventory analysis and spatial mapping of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy use. The proposed GIS-based approach was later evaluated by comparing with the actual values of extracted material of a real road construction project. The results showed that the estimate of filling material was the most accurate, while the estimate for excavated soil and blasted rock had a wide variation from

  18. Assessment of Political Vulnerabilities on Security of Energy Supply in the Baltic States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Česnakas Giedrius

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The article argues that despite the evident link between political environment and security of energy supply, political elements are not sufficiently represented in contemporary scientific literature, namely in indexes that are designed for the assessment of security of energy supply. In an attempt to fill this gap, the article presents an innovative methodology for quantitative assessment of the political vulnerabilities on security of energy supply and applies it to the analysis of the Baltic States.

  19. Assessments of species' vulnerability to climate change: From pseudo to science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wade, Alisa A.; Hand, Brian K.; Kovach, Ryan; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Waples, Robin S.; Luikart, Gordon

    2017-01-01

    Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are important tools to plan for and mitigate potential impacts of climate change. However, CCVAs often lack scientific rigor, which can ultimately lead to poor conservation prioritization and associated ecological and economic costs. We discuss the need to improve comparability and consistency of CCVAs and either validate their findings or improve assessment of CCVA uncertainty and sensitivity to methodological assumptions.

  20. Integrated assessment on the vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disasters under climate change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Yanqiang; Wang, Shijin; Fang, Yiping; Nawaz, Zain

    2017-10-01

    Animal husbandry is a dominant and traditional source of livelihood and income in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is the third largest snow covered area in China and is one of the main snow disaster regions in the world. It is thus imperative to urgently address the issue of vulnerability of the animal husbandry sector to snow disasters for disaster mitigation and adaptation under growing risk of these disasters as a result of future climate change. However, there is very few literature reported on the vulnerability of animal husbandry in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. This assessment aims at identifying vulnerability of animal husbandry at spatial scale and to identify the reasons for vulnerability for adaptive planning and disaster mitigation. First, historical snow disaster characteristics have been analyzed and used for the spatial weight for vulnerability assessment. Second, indicator-based vulnerability assessment model and indicator system have been established. We combined risk of snow hazard, sensitivity of livestock to disaster, physical exposure to disaster, and community capacity to adapt to snow disaster in an integrated vulnerability index. Lastly, vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disaster on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has been evaluated. Results indicate that high vulnerabilities are mainly concentrated in the eastern and central plateau and that vulnerability decreases gradually from the east to the west. Due to global warming, the vulnerability trend has eased to some extent during the last few decades. High livestock density exposure to blizzard-prone regions and shortages of livestock barn and forage are the main reasons of high vulnerability. The conclusion emphasizes the important role of the local government and community to help local pastoralists for reducing vulnerability to snow disaster and frozen hazard. The approaches presented in this paper can be used for snow disaster mitigation, resilience

  1. The Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment: Mangrove, Tidal Emergent Marsh, Barrier Islands, and Oyster Reef

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Amanda; Reece, Joshua S.; Tirpak, Blair; Edwards, Cynthia Kallio; Geselbracht, Laura; Woodrey, Mark; LaPeyre, Megan K.; Dalyander, P. Soupy

    2015-01-01

    Climate, sea level rise, and urbanization are undergoing unprecedented levels of combined change and are expected to have large effects on natural resources—particularly along the Gulf of Mexico coastline (Gulf Coast). Management decisions to address these effects (i.e., adaptation) require an understanding of the relative vulnerability of various resources to these stressors. To meet this need, the four Landscape Conservation Cooperatives along the Gulf partnered with the Gulf of Mexico Alliance to conduct this Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment (GCVA). Vulnerability in this context incorporates the aspects of exposure and sensitivity to threats, coupled with the adaptive capacity to mitigate those threats. Potential impact and adaptive capacity reflect natural history features of target species and ecosystems. The GCVA used an expert opinion approach to qualitatively assess the vulnerability of four ecosystems: mangrove, oyster reef, tidal emergent marsh, and barrier islands, and a suite of wildlife species that depend on them. More than 50 individuals participated in the completion of the GCVA, facilitated via Ecosystem and Species Expert Teams. Of the species assessed, Kemp’s ridley sea turtle was identified as the most vulnerable species across the Gulf Coast. Experts identified the main threats as loss of nesting habitat to sea level rise, erosion, and urbanization. Kemp’s ridley also had an overall low adaptive capacity score due to their low genetic diversity, and higher nest site fidelity as compared to other assessed species. Tidal emergent marsh was the most vulnerable ecosystem, due in part to sea level rise and erosion. In general, avian species were more vulnerable than fish because of nesting habitat loss to sea level rise, erosion, and potential increases in storm surge. Assessors commonly indicated a lack of information regarding impacts due to projected changes in the disturbance regime, biotic interactions, and synergistic effects in both

  2. Gulf Coast vulnerability assessment: Mangrove, tidal emergent marsh, barrier islands and oyster reef

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Amanda; Reece, Joshua; Tirpak, Blair; Edwards, Cynthia Kallio; Geselbracht, Laura; Woodrey, Mark; LaPeyre, Megan K.; Dalyander, Patricia (Soupy)

    2017-01-01

    Climate, sea level rise, and urbanization are undergoing unprecedented levels of combined change and are expected to have large effects on natural resources—particularly along the Gulf of Mexico coastline (Gulf Coast). Management decisions to address these effects (i.e., adaptation) require an understanding of the relative vulnerability of various resources to these stressors. To meet this need, the four Landscape Conservation Cooperatives along the Gulf partnered with the Gulf of Mexico Alliance to conduct this Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment (GCVA). Vulnerability in this context incorporates exposure and sensitivity to threats (potential impact), coupled with the adaptive capacity to mitigate those threats. Potential impact and adaptive capacity reflect natural history features of target species and ecosystems. The GCVA used an expert opinion approach to qualitatively assess the vulnerability of four ecosystems: mangrove, oyster reef, tidal emergent marsh, and barrier islands, and a suite of wildlife species that depend on them. More than 50 individuals participated in the completion of the GCVA, facilitated via Ecosystem and Species Expert Teams. Of the species assessed, Kemp’s ridley sea turtle was identified as the most vulnerable species across the Gulf Coast. Experts identified the main threats as loss of nesting habitat to sea level rise, erosion, and urbanization. Kemp’s ridley also had an overall low adaptive capacity score due to their low genetic diversity, and higher nest site fidelity as compared to other assessed species. Tidal emergent marsh was the most vulnerable ecosystem, due in part to sea level rise and erosion. In general, avian species were more vulnerable than fish because of nesting habitat loss to sea level rise, erosion, and potential increases in storm surge. Assessors commonly indicated a lack of information regarding impacts due to projected changes in the disturbance regime, biotic interactions, and synergistic effects in

  3. Assessment of municipal infrastructure development and its critical influencing factors in urban China: A FA and STIRPAT approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Li

    Full Text Available Municipal infrastructure is a fundamental facility for the normal operation and development of an urban city and is of significance for the stable progress of sustainable urbanization around the world, especially in developing countries. Based on the municipal infrastructure data of the prefecture-level cities in China, municipal infrastructure development is assessed comprehensively using a FA (factor analysis model, and then the stochastic model STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology is examined to investigate key factors that influence municipal infrastructure of cities in various stages of urbanization and economy. This study indicates that the municipal infrastructure development in urban China demonstrates typical characteristics of regional differentiation, in line with the economic development pattern. Municipal infrastructure development in cities is primarily influenced by income, industrialization and investment. For China and similar developing countries under transformation, national public investment remains the primary driving force of economy as well as the key influencing factor of municipal infrastructure. Contribution from urbanization and the relative consumption level, and the tertiary industry is still scanty, which is a crux issue for many developing countries under transformation. With economic growth and the transformation requirements, the influence of the conventional factors such as public investment and industrialization on municipal infrastructure development would be expected to decline, meanwhile, other factors like the consumption and tertiary industry driven model and the innovation society can become key contributors to municipal infrastructure sustainability.

  4. Assessment of municipal infrastructure development and its critical influencing factors in urban China: A FA and STIRPAT approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yu; Zheng, Ji; Li, Fei; Jin, Xueting; Xu, Chen

    2017-01-01

    Municipal infrastructure is a fundamental facility for the normal operation and development of an urban city and is of significance for the stable progress of sustainable urbanization around the world, especially in developing countries. Based on the municipal infrastructure data of the prefecture-level cities in China, municipal infrastructure development is assessed comprehensively using a FA (factor analysis) model, and then the stochastic model STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology) is examined to investigate key factors that influence municipal infrastructure of cities in various stages of urbanization and economy. This study indicates that the municipal infrastructure development in urban China demonstrates typical characteristics of regional differentiation, in line with the economic development pattern. Municipal infrastructure development in cities is primarily influenced by income, industrialization and investment. For China and similar developing countries under transformation, national public investment remains the primary driving force of economy as well as the key influencing factor of municipal infrastructure. Contribution from urbanization and the relative consumption level, and the tertiary industry is still scanty, which is a crux issue for many developing countries under transformation. With economic growth and the transformation requirements, the influence of the conventional factors such as public investment and industrialization on municipal infrastructure development would be expected to decline, meanwhile, other factors like the consumption and tertiary industry driven model and the innovation society can become key contributors to municipal infrastructure sustainability.

  5. Vulnerability And Risk Assessment Using The Homeland-Defense Operational Planning System (HOPS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Durling, Jr., R L; Price, D E; Spero, K K

    2005-01-03

    For over ten years, the Counterproliferation Analysis and Planning System (CAPS) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has been a planning tool used by U.S. combatant commands for mission support planning against foreign programs engaged in the manufacture of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). CAPS is endorsed by the Secretary of Defense as the preferred counterproliferation tool to be used by the nation's armed services. A sister system, the Homeland-Defense Operational Planning System (HOPS), is a new operational planning tool leveraging CAPS expertise designed to support the defense of the U.S. homeland. HOPS provides planners with a basis to make decisions to protect against acts of terrorism, focusing on the defense of facilities critical to U.S. infrastructure. Criticality of facilities, structures, and systems is evaluated on a composite matrix of specific projected casualty, economic, and sociopolitical impact bins. Based on these criteria, significant unidentified vulnerabilities are identified and secured. To provide insight into potential successes by malevolent actors, HOPS analysts strive to base their efforts mainly on unclassified open-source data. However, more cooperation is needed between HOPS analysts and facility representatives to provide an advantage to those whose task is to defend these facilities. Evaluated facilities include: refineries, major ports, nuclear power plants and other nuclear licensees, dams, government installations, convention centers, sports stadiums, tourist venues, and public and freight transportation systems. A generalized summary of analyses of U.S. infrastructure facilities is presented.

  6. Assessing socioeconomic vulnerability to dengue fever in Cali, Colombia: statistical vs expert-based modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background As a result of changes in climatic conditions and greater resistance to insecticides, many regions across the globe, including Colombia, have been facing a resurgence of vector-borne diseases, and dengue fever in particular. Timely information on both (1) the spatial distribution of the disease, and (2) prevailing vulnerabilities of the population are needed to adequately plan targeted preventive intervention. We propose a methodology for the spatial assessment of current socioeconomic vulnerabilities to dengue fever in Cali, a tropical urban environment of Colombia. Methods Based on a set of socioeconomic and demographic indicators derived from census data and ancillary geospatial datasets, we develop a spatial approach for both expert-based and purely statistical-based modeling of current vulnerability levels across 340 neighborhoods of the city using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The results of both approaches are comparatively evaluated by means of spatial statistics. A web-based approach is proposed to facilitate the visualization and the dissemination of the output vulnerability index to the community. Results The statistical and the expert-based modeling approach exhibit a high concordance, globally, and spatially. The expert-based approach indicates a slightly higher vulnerability mean (0.53) and vulnerability median (0.56) across all neighborhoods, compared to the purely statistical approach (mean = 0.48; median = 0.49). Both approaches reveal that high values of vulnerability tend to cluster in the eastern, north-eastern, and western part of the city. These are poor neighborhoods with high percentages of young (i.e., < 15 years) and illiterate residents, as well as a high proportion of individuals being either unemployed or doing housework. Conclusions Both modeling approaches reveal similar outputs, indicating that in the absence of local expertise, statistical approaches could be used, with caution. By decomposing identified

  7. Health effects of coastal storms and flooding in urban areas: a review and vulnerability assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Kathryn; Charles-Guzman, Kizzy; Wheeler, Katherine; Abid, Zaynah; Graber, Nathan; Matte, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Coastal storms can take a devastating toll on the public's health. Urban areas like New York City (NYC) may be particularly at risk, given their dense population, reliance on transportation, energy infrastructure that is vulnerable to flood damage, and high-rise residential housing, which may be hard-hit by power and utility outages. Climate change will exacerbate these risks in the coming decades. Sea levels are rising due to global warming, which will intensify storm surge. These projections make preparing for the health impacts of storms even more important. We conducted a broad review of the health impacts of US coastal storms to inform climate adaptation planning efforts, with a focus on outcomes relevant to NYC and urban coastal areas, and incorporated some lessons learned from recent experience with Superstorm Sandy. Based on the literature, indicators of health vulnerability were selected and mapped within NYC neighborhoods. Preparing for the broad range of anticipated effects of coastal storms and floods may help reduce the public health burden from these events.

  8. Coastal erosion vulnerability and risk assessment focusing in tourism beach use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrakis, George

    2016-04-01

    It is well established that the global market for tourism services is a key source of economic growth. Especially among Mediterranean countries, the tourism sector is one of the principal sectors driving national economies. With the majority of the mass tourism activities concentrated around coastal areas, coastal erosion, inter alia, poses a significant threat to coastal economies that depend heavily on revenues from tourism. The economic implications of beach erosion were mainly focused in the cost of coastal protection measures, instead of the revenue losses from tourism. For this, the vulnerability of the coast to sea level rise and associated erosion, in terms of expected land loss and economic activity need to be identified. To achieve this, a joint environmental and economic evaluation approach of the problem can provide a managerial tool to mitigate the impact of beach erosion in tourism, through realistic cost-benefit scenarios for planning alternative protection measures. Such a multipurpose tool needs to consider social, economic and environmental factors, which relationships can be better understood when distributed and analyzed along the geographical space. The risk assessment is implemented through the estimation of the vulnerability and exposure variables of the coast in two scales. The larger scale estimates the vulnerability in a regional level, with the use environmental factors with the use of CVI. The exposure variable is estimated by the use of socioeconomic factors. Subsequently, a smaller scale focuses on highly vulnerable beaches with high social and economic value. The assessment of the natural processes to the environmental characteristics of the beach is estimated with the use of the Beach Vulnerability Index (BVI) method. As exposure variable, the value of beach width that is capitalized in revenues is implemented through a hedonic pricing model. In this econometric modelling, Beach Value is related with economic and environmental

  9. Psychosocial Needs Assessment among Earthquake Survivors in Lorestan Province with an Emphasis on the Vulnerable Groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forouzan, A.; Eftekhari, M. Baradaran; Falahat, K.; Dejman, M.; Heidari, N.; Habibi, E.

    2013-01-01

    Introduction: Iran is one of the ten most earthquake prone countries in the world. Earthquakes not only cause new psychological needs among the population but particularly so when one considers vulnerable groups. This in - depth study was conducted with the aim of assessing psychosocial needs six months after an earthquake happened in the west of the county in Lorestan province. Methods: This is a qualitative study using focus group discussion that focuses mainly on the vulnerable groups (women, children, elderly and disabled people) after an earthquake in Boz-azna; a village in Lorestan province in western part of Iran. Findings: Results of the psychosocial assessment indicated feelings of anxiety and worries in four vulnerable groups. Horror, hyper-excitement, avoidance and disturbing thoughts were observed in all groups with the exception of the elderly. Educational failures, loneliness and isolation were highlighted in children. All groups encountered socio-economic needs that included loss of assets and sense of insecurity and also reproductive problems were reported in women's group. Discussion and Conclusion: Modification of a protocol on psychosocial support considering the context of the rural and urban areas with emphasis on the specific needs of the vulnerable groups is an appropriate strategy in crisis management. It seems that appropriate public awareness regarding assistance programs can be effective in reducing stress and needs of disaster survivors. PMID:23777724

  10. Damage assessment of bridge infrastructure subjected to flood-related hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalis, Panagiotis; Cahill, Paul; Bekić, Damir; Kerin, Igor; Pakrashi, Vikram; Lapthorne, John; Morais, João Gonçalo Martins Paulo; McKeogh, Eamon

    2017-04-01

    Transportation assets represent a critical component of society's infrastructure systems. Flood-related hazards are considered one of the main climate change impacts on highway and railway infrastructure, threatening the security and functionality of transportation systems. Of such hazards, flood-induced scour is a primarily cause of bridge collapses worldwide and one of the most complex and challenging water flow and erosion phenomena, leading to structural instability and ultimately catastrophic failures. Evaluation of scour risk under severe flood events is a particularly challenging issue considering that depth of foundations is very difficult to evaluate in water environment. The continual inspection, assessment and maintenance of bridges and other hydraulic structures under extreme flood events requires a multidisciplinary approach, including knowledge and expertise of hydraulics, hydrology, structural engineering, geotechnics and infrastructure management. The large number of bridges under a single management unit also highlights the need for efficient management, information sharing and self-informing systems to provide reliable, cost-effective flood and scour risk management. The "Intelligent Bridge Assessment Maintenance and Management System" (BRIDGE SMS) is an EU/FP7 funded project which aims to couple state-of-the art scientific expertise in multidisciplinary engineering sectors with industrial knowledge in infrastructure management. This involves the application of integrated low-cost structural health monitoring systems to provide real-time information towards the development of an intelligent decision support tool and a web-based platform to assess and efficiently manage bridge assets. This study documents the technological experience and presents results obtained from the application of sensing systems focusing on the damage assessment of water-hazards at bridges over watercourses in Ireland. The applied instrumentation is interfaced with an open

  11. Index based regional vulnerability assessment to cyclones hazards of coastal area of Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammad, Q. A.; Kervyn, M.; Khan, A. U.

    2016-12-01

    Cyclone, storm surge, coastal flooding, salinity intrusion, tornado, nor'wester, and thunderstorms are the listed natural hazards in the coastal areas of Bangladesh. Bangladesh was hit by devastating cyclones in 1970, 1991, 2007, 2009, and 2016. Intensity and frequency of natural hazards in the coastal area are likely to increase in future due to climate change. Risk assessment is one of the most important steps of disaster risk reduction. As a climate change victim nation, Bangladesh claims compensation from green climate fund. It also created its own climate funds. It is therefore very important to assess vulnerability of the coast of Bangladesh to natural hazards for efficient allocation of financial investment to support the national risk reduction. This study aims at identifying the spatial variations in factors contributing to vulnerability of the coastal inhabitants of Bangladesh to natural hazards. An exploratory factor analysis method has been used to assess the vulnerability at each local administrative unit. The 141 initially selected 141 socio-economic indicators were reduced to 41 by converting some of them to meaningful widely accepted indicators and removing highly correlated indicators. Principle component analysis further reduced 41 indicators to 13 dimensions which explained 79% of total variation. PCA dimensions show three types of characteristics of the people that may lead people towards vulnerability. They are (a) demographic, education and job opportunities, (b) access to basic needs and facilities, and (c) special needs people. Vulnerability maps of the study area has been prepared by weighted overlay of the dimensions. Study revealed that 29 and 8 percent of total coastal area are very high and high vulnerable to natural hazards respectively. These are distributed along sea boundary and major rivers. Comparison of this spatial distribution with the capacities to face disaster show that highly vulnerable areas are well covered by cyclone

  12. Physical, social and institutional vulnerability assessment in small Alpine communities. Results of the SAMCO-ANR project in the Upper Guil Valley (French Southern Alps)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlier, Benoit; Dujarric, Constance; Frison-Bruno, Nikita; Puissant, Anne; Lissak, Candide; Madelin, Malika; Viel, Vincent; Bétard, François; Fort, Monique; Arnaud-Fassetta, Gilles

    2016-04-01

    The Upper Guil catchment is particularly prone to hydromorphological hazards such as torrential floods, debris flows, landslides or avalanches. Following the catastrophic events of the last 60 years (1957, 1978, 2000, and 2008), some measures were taken to reduce exposure to risks (engineering works, standards of construction, rescue training…). Nevertheless, the development of urban settlement in endangered areas and the obsolescence of the existing protective measures revealed the necessity to reassess the vulnerability of the different stakes exposed to hazards and to take into account of these various component parts of the vulnerability (not only physical but also social, etc.). In addition, catastrophic events should be more frequent in the French Southern Alps, according to the last GIEC report. In the frame of the SAMCO project designed for mountain risk assessment in a context of global change, we developed a systemic approach to assess three specific components of vulnerability - physical, social and institutional - for the six municipalities of the Upper Guil catchment (Ristolas, Abriès, Aiguilles, Château-Ville-Vieille, Molines-en-Queyras and St-Véran). Physical vulnerability, which represents total potential consequences of hazards on stakes, was estimated and mapped using a GIS model based on an empirical semi-quantitative indicator, the Potential Damage Index (PDI). This index allowed us to quantify and describe both direct (physical injury, structural and functional damage on buildings, network and land cover) and indirect consequences (socio-economic impacts) induced by hazards, by combining weighted parameters (age, state, material, function, etc.) reflecting the exposure of elements at risk. At least 1890 buildings, 367 km² of land cover and 902 km of linear infrastructure were considered. To assess social and institutional vulnerability our approach was based on questionnaires (5% of the total population investigated), interviews and

  13. Data related uncertainty in near-surface vulnerability assessments for agrochemicals in the San Joaquin Valley.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loague, Keith; Blanke, James S; Mills, Melissa B; Diaz-Diaz, Ricardo; Corwin, Dennis L

    2012-01-01

    Precious groundwater resources across the United States have been contaminated due to decades-long nonpoint-source applications of agricultural chemicals. Assessing the impact of past, ongoing, and future chemical applications for large-scale agriculture operations is timely for designing best-management practices to prevent subsurface pollution. Presented here are the results from a series of regional-scale vulnerability assessments for the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Two relatively simple indices, the retardation and attenuation factors, are used to estimate near-surface vulnerabilities based on the chemical properties of 32 pesticides and the variability of both soil characteristics and recharge rates across the SJV. The uncertainties inherit to these assessments, derived from the uncertainties within the chemical and soil data bases, are estimated using first-order analyses. The results are used to screen and rank the chemicals based on mobility and leaching potential, without and with consideration of data-related uncertainties. Chemicals of historic high visibility in the SJV (e.g., atrazine, DBCP [dibromochloropropane], ethylene dibromide, and simazine) are ranked in the top half of those considered. Vulnerability maps generated for atrazine and DBCP, featured for their legacy status in the study area, clearly illustrate variations within and across the assessments. For example, the leaching potential is greater for DBCP than for atrazine, the leaching potential for DBCP is greater for the spatially variable recharge values than for the average recharge rate, and the leaching potentials for both DBCP and atrazine are greater for the annual recharge estimates than for the monthly recharge estimates. The data-related uncertainties identified in this study can be significant, targeting opportunities for improving future vulnerability assessments. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America

  14. Assessing the physical vulnerability of check dams through an empirical damage index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Dell'Agnese

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available A comprehensive analysis of flood risk in mountain streams has to include an assessment of the vulnerability of the protection systems, in addition to an assessment of the vulnerability of the constructed environment on alluvial fans and floodplains. Structures forming the protection systems are of a dual nature, i.e. they are designed to mitigate natural process-related hazards and, on the other hand, are prone to be damaged during their lifecycle by the same processes they should mitigate. Therefore, their effectiveness declines over time. Hence, the knowledge of how effectively control structures perform is essential for risk management. A procedure was developed to assess the physical vulnerability of check dams based on empirical evidence collected in South Tyrol, Northern Italy. A damage index defined on pre- and postevent comparisons of check dam conditions was evaluated for 362 structures in 18 mountain streams along with the relevant processes and the structural characteristics affecting it. Although the available dataset did not allow conclusive functional relationships between damage index and impact variables to be established, it was possible to assess the average expected residual functionality of check dams according to structure characteristics, and event type and intensity. These results may help plan appropriate check dam maintenance.

  15. Comparative analysis of climate change vulnerability assessments. Lessons from Tunisia and Indonesia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hammill, Anne; Bizikova, Livia; Dekens, Julie; McCandless, Matthew

    2013-03-15

    Vulnerability assessments (VAs) are central to shaping climate change adaptation decisions. They help to define the nature and extent of the threat that may harm a given human or ecological system, providing a basis for devising measures that will minimize or avoid this harm. Yet the wide variety of VA approaches can be confusing for practitioners, creating uncertainty about the ''right'' way to assess vulnerability. In an effort to provide some guidance on designing and conducting VAs, this paper reviews and compares VAs undertaken in Indonesia and Tunisia to distill key approaches, components and lessons. It begins with a general overview of definitions, approaches and challenges with conducting VAs, and then proposes a framework for analyzing and comparing them. The framework looks at four components of VAs: (1) Framing: where do we come from? (2) Process of conducting the VAs: how does it work? (3) Inputs: what is needed? (4) Outputs: what does it tell us? The framework is then applied to analyze the assessments carried out in Tunisia and Indonesia, from their respective framings of vulnerability to the outputs of the process. The report then concludes with observations on differences and similarities between the VAs, as well as lessons learned that can inform the design and execution of future assessments.

  16. Transport Infrastructure Planning: Assessment of Strategic Mobility by Use of the POINTER Impact Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kronbak, Jacob; Leleur, Steen

    2002-01-01

    When evaluating large infrastructure projects one point to be made is the importance of supplementing the more traditional effects captured by a cost-benefit analysis as presented for example by use of the benefit cost ratio (BCR) with strategic effect modelling to obtain a more comprehensive vie...... of calculation scenarios have been made to assess the possibility of the POINTER approach to indicate the changes in strategic mobility (accessibility) associated with the implementing of one or more of the three fixed links. Finally, conclusions and a research perspective are outlined....

  17. An integrated vulnerability index for socio-climate risk assessment over the continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batıbeniz, Fulden; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Preston, Ben; Pagan, Brianna; Rastogi, Deeksha

    2017-04-01

    There is no clear knowledge towards the collective risk associated with multivariate extremes for natural and human systems, as the research thus far has not taken into account the combined impact of changes in hot, cold, wet and dry extremes. Concurrently, not all the factors influencing human vulnerability to climate change are related with natural system's response to climate forcing as future changes in both the magnitude and the distribution of human population and income levels can potentially multiply or reduce the risk of human exposure to climatic changes. For a comprehensive socio-climate risk assessment, a county-level integrated vulnerability index is developed in this study to provide an estimate of future exposure to both changes in climate extremes and socioeconomic conditions over the continental United States. The integrated vulnerability index is based on the combination of a unified climate extremes indices, which summarize overall exposure to multivariate and multidimensional climate extremes, including hot, cold, wet and dry, and shared socioeconomic pathways, which identify communities at risk based on projected population and income levels. We will present results from the application of the proposed integrated vulnerability index on a high-resolution (4km) 11-member ensemble of regional climate simulations and multiple socioeconomic pathways, aggregated at county scale, which cover 1966-2005 in the baseline and 2011-2050 in the near-term future climate under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Overall, this research should help advance robust strategies for assessing the risk and vulnerability associated with projected changes in temperature and precipitation characteristics, as well as socioeconomic conditions.

  18. Assessment of vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change and adaptation planning in Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matin, M. A.; Chitale, V. S.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding ecosystem level vulnerability of forests and dependence of local communities on these ecosystems is a first step towards developing effective adaptation strategies. As forests are important components of livelihoods system for a large percentage of the population in the Himalayan region, they offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities. Increased frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress, changes in winter ecology, and pest and fire outbreaksunder climate change scenarios could fundamentally alter the composition, productivity and biogeography of forests affecting the potential ecosystem services offered and forest-based livelihoods. Hence, forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and the development of a knowledgebase to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is identified as an urgent need. Climate change vulnerability is measured as a function of exposure, sensitivity and the adaptive capacity of the system towards climate variability and extreme events. Effective adaptation to climate change depends on the availability of two important prerequisites: a) information on what, where, and how to adapt, and b) availability of resources to implement the adaptation measures. In the present study, we introduce the concept of two way multitier approach, which can support effective identification and implementation of adaptation measures in Nepal and the framework can be replicated in other countries in the HKH region. The assessment of overall vulnerability of forests comprises of two components: 1) understanding the relationship between exposure and sensitivity and positive feedback from adaptive capacity of forests; 2) quantifying the dependence of local communities on these ecosystems. We use climate datasets from Bioclim and biophysical products from MODIS, alongwith field datasets. We report that most of the forests along the high altitude areas and few

  19. A Preliminary Assessment of Social Vulnerability in Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazra, Sugata; Islam, Nabiul

    2017-04-01

    The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta has a high population density and is exposed to rapid environmental changes making it one of the most stressed deltas in the world. The low-lying coastal areas of the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta comprise 19 coastal districts of Bangladesh and two districts in India with significant land areas within 5 meters of sea level has a population of more than 50 million people at an average population density of 1100 people/km2. This population is exposed to a range of hazards such as severe cyclones, coastal erosion, and salinization, exacerbated by climate change and subsidence which imply severe stress on the resource dependent community of this region. This situation is further complicated by poverty and limited social well-being such as poor access to education/ health/ drinking water/ sanitation facilities, and lack of food and energy security. Thus assessing social vulnerability can help to understand which communities are susceptible to environmental change and guide adaptation actions to address these threats. This preliminary study aims to construct a socio-economic index by assessing the social vulnerability of coastal communities of GBM Delta taking consistent and common secondary data from the Census of India and the Bangladesh Bureau of Statisticsand applyinga Principle Component Analysis(PCA) methodology. Several statistical tests like Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) have also been used to assess the appropriateness of using PCA. Among the selected common indicators, five major components are found to explain majority of the total variation of social vulnerability across the delta: (1) poverty, (2) dependency ratio, (3) agriculture dependency, (4) lack of sanitation and (5) existence of mud houses. The most important observation is the existence of a social vulnerability gradient across the coast. In other words, socially marginalised and vulnerable communities are found on the Delta margin in both India and

  20. Assessment of groundwater vulnerability using supervised committee to combine fuzzy logic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadiri, Ata Allah; Gharekhani, Maryam; Khatibi, Rahman; Moghaddam, Asghar Asghari

    2017-03-01

    Vulnerability indices of an aquifer assessed by different fuzzy logic (FL) models often give rise to differing values with no theoretical or empirical basis to establish a validated baseline or to develop a comparison basis between the modeling results and baselines, if any. Therefore, this research presents a supervised committee fuzzy logic (SCFL) method, which uses artificial neural networks to overarch and combine a selection of FL models. The indices are expressed by the widely used DRASTIC framework, which include geological, hydrological, and hydrogeological parameters often subject to uncertainty. DRASTIC indices represent collectively intrinsic (or natural) vulnerability and give a sense of contaminants, such as nitrate-N, percolating to aquifers from the surface. The study area is an aquifer in Ardabil plain, the province of Ardabil, northwest Iran. Improvements on vulnerability indices are achieved by FL techniques, which comprise Sugeno fuzzy logic (SFL), Mamdani fuzzy logic (MFL), and Larsen fuzzy logic (LFL). As the correlation between estimated DRASTIC vulnerability index values and nitrate-N values is as low as 0.4, it is improved significantly by FL models (SFL, MFL, and LFL), which perform in similar ways but have differences. Their synergy is exploited by SCFL and uses the FL modeling results "conditioned" by nitrate-N values to raise their correlation to higher than 0.9.

  1. Assessment of groundwater vulnerability by combining drastic and susceptibility index: Application to Annaba superficial aquifer (Algeria)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedrati, Nassima; Djabri, Larbi; Chaffai, Hicham; Bougherira, Nabil

    2016-07-01

    Groundwater pollution due to anthropogenic activities is one of the major environmental problems in urban and industrial areas. The aim of this work is to propose a new integrated methodology to assess actual and forecasted groundwater vulnerability by combining Drastic and susceptibility index. The contamination susceptibility index (SI) at a given location was calculated by taking the product of the vulnerability DRASTIC index (VI) and the quality index (QI): SI=VI x QI. The superficial aquifer of Annaba plain was the study case proposed for the application of this methodology. The study revealed that the area with Very High vulnerability would increase 73 % in this superficial layer. This result can be explained by the susceptibility index map shows both hydrogeological and hydrochemical data related to the contamination problem including areas that should be taken into consideration during water management planning. The index map indicates that the most susceptible groundwater is occupies the majority of the study area. The validity of the DRASTIC and the susceptibility index methods, verified by comparing the distribution of some pollutants (Daouad, 2013) in the groundwater and the different vulnerability classes, shows a high contamination that affect the water quality in study areas.

  2. Control of the Public Health IT Physical Infrastructure: Findings From the 2015 Informatics Capacity and Needs Assessment Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chester, Kelley; Massoudi, Barbara L; Shah, Gulzar H

    2016-01-01

    Despite improvements in information technology (IT) infrastructure in public health, there is still much that can be done to improve the adoption of IT in state and local health departments, by better understanding the impact of governance and control structures of physical infrastructure. To report out the current status of the physical infrastructure control of local health departments (LHDs) and to determine whether there is a significant association between an LHD's governance status and control of the physical infrastructure components. Data came from the 2015 Informatics Capacity and Needs Assessment Survey, conducted by Georgia Southern University in collaboration with the National Association of County and City Health Officials. A total of 324 LHDs from all 50 states completed the survey (response rate: 50%). Outcome measures included control of LHD physical infrastructure components. Predictors of interest included LHD governance category. The majority of the control of the physical infrastructure components in LHDs resides in external entities. The type of governance structure of the LHD is significantly associated with the control of infrastructure. Additional research is needed to determine best practices in IT governance and control of physical infrastructure for public health.

  3. Control of the Public Health IT Physical Infrastructure: Findings From the 2015 Informatics Capacity and Needs Assessment Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massoudi, Barbara L.; Shah, Gulzar H.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Despite improvements in information technology (IT) infrastructure in public health, there is still much that can be done to improve the adoption of IT in state and local health departments, by better understanding the impact of governance and control structures of physical infrastructure. Objective: To report out the current status of the physical infrastructure control of local health departments (LHDs) and to determine whether there is a significant association between an LHD's governance status and control of the physical infrastructure components. Design: Data came from the 2015 Informatics Capacity and Needs Assessment Survey, conducted by Georgia Southern University in collaboration with the National Association of County and City Health Officials. Participants: A total of 324 LHDs from all 50 states completed the survey (response rate: 50%). Main Outcome Measure(s): Outcome measures included control of LHD physical infrastructure components. Predictors of interest included LHD governance category. Results: The majority of the control of the physical infrastructure components in LHDs resides in external entities. The type of governance structure of the LHD is significantly associated with the control of infrastructure. Conclusions: Additional research is needed to determine best practices in IT governance and control of physical infrastructure for public health. PMID:27684612

  4. Integrated flood risk assessment for the Mekong Delta through the combined assessment of flood hazard change and social vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apel, Heiko; Garschagen, Matthias; Delgado, José Miguel; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Van Tuan, Vo; Thanh Binh, Nguyen; Birkmann, Joern; Merz, Bruno

    2013-04-01

    Low lying estuaries as the Mekong Delta in Vietnam are among the most vulnerable areas with respect to climate change impacts. While regular floods are not a threat but an opportunity for livelihoods and income generation, extreme flood events can pose considerable risks to the people living in Deltas. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of extreme floods globally, which in combination with sea level rise and a likely intensification of cyclone activity creates increased and/or entirely new hazard exposure in the Deltas. Yet, in line with the risk literature and especially the recent IPCC SREX report, flooding risk needs to be understood as deriving from the interaction of physical hazards and the vulnerabilities of exposed elements. Therefore, the paper aims for an integrated risk assessment through combining the most up to date estimates of flood hazard projections under climate change conditions in the Mekong Delta with the assessment of vulnerability patterns. Projections of flood hazard are estimated based the modulation of the flood frequency distribution by atmospheric circulation patterns. Future projections of these patterns are calculated from an ensemble of climate models. A quasi two-dimensional hydrodynamical model of the Delta is then applied to estimate water levels and flood extend. This model is fed with a set of hydrographs which are based on both the derived climate model uncertainty and the bivariate nature of floods in the Mekong Delta. Flood peak is coupled with flood volume in the probabilistic framework to derive synthetic extreme future floods with associated probabilities of occurrence. This flood hazard analysis is combined with static sea level rise scenarios, which alter the lower boundary of the hydrodynamic model and give estimates of the impact on sea level rise on inundation extend and depths. The vulnerability assessment is based on a three step approach. Firstly, vulnerability profiles are developed for different

  5. Assessing water resources vulnerability and resilience of southern Taiwan to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Hsu Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Water resources management has become more challenging in Taiwan due to rapid socio-economic development and the complications of climate change. This study developed a systematic procedure for assessing water resources vulnerability and resilience with an integrated tool, TaiWAP, including climate change scenarios, a weather generator, a hydrological model, and system dynamic models. Five assessment indicators, including two for vulnerability, two for resilience, and one for availability were used to quantify changes in water resources and improvements after implementing adaption measures. Each indicator was presented with 3 grades, namely low, medium, and high. Water resources vulnerability and resilience for Tainan City in southern Taiwan were evaluated. Insufficient water supply facilities capacity is the major weakness causing low resilience. Water resources allocation flexibility is limited by substantial agricultural water demands. A total of 9 adaption measures and combinations of measures were assessed. Desalination plant implementation can steadily supply public water to lessen system failure duration. Although agricultural water conservation and fallow land can greatly reduce water demand, fallow compensation is a potential cost. When food security is considered, reducing irrigation leakage will be a better adaption measure to both water and agriculture stakeholders. Both agriculture water conservation and cropping systems adjustment have cross-spatial flexibilities. The combination of desalination, reservoirs and public water conservation provide the most beneficial effects in reducing climate change impact.

  6. Assessment of vulnerability to storm induced flood hazard along diverse coastline settings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valchev Nikolay

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available European coasts suffer notably from hazards caused by low-probability and high-impact hydrometeorological events. The aim of the study is to assess in probabilistic terms the magnitude of storm‐induced flooding hazard along Varna regional coast (Bulgaria, western Black Sea and to identify susceptible coastal sectors (hotspots. The study is performed employing the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF developed within EU FP7 RISC-KIT project. It constitutes a screening process that allows estimation of relevant hazard intensities, extents and potential receptors’ exposure vulnerability within predefined sectors. Total water level was the chief property considered for calculation of coastal flooding hazard. It was estimated using Holman model (for sandy beaches and EurOtop formulation (for artificial or rocky slopes. Resulting values were subjected to Extreme Value Analysis to establish that the best fitting distribution corresponds to Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Furthermore, hazard extents were modelled by means of bathtubbing or overwash estimation in order to form the flooding hazard indicator. Land use, social vulnerability, transport systems, utilities and business settings were considered as exposure indicators. Finally, potential risk was assessed by coastal indices following an index-based methodology, which combines hazard and exposure indicators into a single index, thereby providing base for comparison of coastal sectors’ vulnerability. The study found that the concentration of hotspots is highest in Varna Bay.

  7. Assessment on vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea level rise in the Yangtze Estuary, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, L.; Ge, Z.; Zhang, L.

    2013-12-01

    The Yangtze Delta in China is vital economic hubs in terms of settlement, industry, agriculture, trade and tourism as well as of great environmental significance. In recent decades, the prospect of climate change, in particular sea level rise and its effects on low lying coastal areas have generated worldwide attention to coastal ecosystems. Coastal wetlands, as important parts of coastal ecosystem, are particularly sensitive to sea level rise. To study the responses of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisites for securing the coastal zone ecosystems. In this study, taking the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary as a case study, the potential impacts of sea-level rise to coastal wetlands habitat were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model. The key indicators, such as the sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, elevation, daily inundation duration of habitat and sedimentation rate, were selected to build a vulnerability assessment system according to the IPCC definition of vulnerability, i.e. the aspects of exposure, sensitivity and adaptation. A quantitatively spatial assessment method on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability. The vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the sea level rise rate of the present trend and IPCC A1F1 scenario were performed for three sets of projections of short-term (2030s), mid-term (2050s) and long-term (2100s). The results showed that at the present trend of sea level rise rate of 0.26 cm/a, 92.3 % of the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary was in the EVI score of 0 in 2030s, i.e. the impact of sea level rise on habitats/species of coastal wetlands was negligible. While 7.4 % and 0.3 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of

  8. A model for assessing habitat fragmentation caused by new infrastructures in extensive territories - evaluation of the impact of the Spanish strategic infrastructure and transport plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mancebo Quintana, S; Martín Ramos, B; Casermeiro Martínez, M A; Otero Pastor, I

    2010-05-01

    The aim of the present work is to design a model for evaluating the impact of planned infrastructures on species survival at the territorial scale by calculating a connectivity index. The method developed involves determining the effective distance of displacement between patches of the same habitat, simplifying earlier models so that there is no dependence on specific variables for each species. A case study is presented in which the model was used to assess the impact of the forthcoming roads and railways included in the Spanish Strategic Infrastructure and Transport Plan (PEIT, in its Spanish initials). This study took into account the habitats of peninsular Spain, which occupies an area of some 500,000 km(2). In this territory, the areas deemed to provide natural habitats are defined by Directive 92/43/EEC. The impact of new infrastructures on connectivity was assessed by comparing two scenarios, with and without the plan, for the major new road and railway networks. The calculation of the connectivity index (CI) requires the use of a raster methodology based on the Arc/Info geographical information system (GIS). The actual calculation was performed using a program written in Arc/Info Macro Language (AML); this program is available in FragtULs (Mancebo Quintana, 2007), a set of tools for calculating indicators of fragmentation caused by transport infrastructure (http://topografia.montes.upm.es/fragtuls.html). The indicator of connectivity proposed allows the estimation of the connectivity between all the patches of a territory, with no artificial (non-ecologically based) boundaries imposed. The model proposed appears to be a useful tool for the analysis of fragmentation caused by plans for large territories. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Coastal vulnerability assessment using Fuzzy Logic and Bayesian Belief Network approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentini, Emiliana; Nguyen Xuan, Alessandra; Filipponi, Federico; Taramelli, Andrea

    2017-04-01

    Natural hazards such as sea surge are threatening low-lying coastal plains. In order to deal with disturbances a deeper understanding of benefits deriving from ecosystem services assessment, management and planning can contribute to enhance the resilience of coastal systems. In this frame assessing current and future vulnerability is a key concern of many Systems Of Systems SOS (social, ecological, institutional) that deals with several challenges like the definition of Essential Variables (EVs) able to synthesize the required information, the assignment of different weight to be attributed to each considered variable, the selection of method for combining the relevant variables. It is widely recognized that ecosystems contribute to human wellbeing and then their conservation increases the resilience capacities and could play a key role in reducing climate related risk and thus physical and economic losses. A way to fully exploit ecosystems potential, i.e. their so called ecopotential (see H2020 EU funded project "ECOPOTENTIAL"), is the Ecosystem based Adaptation (EbA): the use of ecosystem services as part of an adaptation strategy. In order to provide insight in understanding regulating ecosystem services to surge and which variables influence them and to make the best use of available data and information (EO products, in situ data and modelling), we propose a multi-component surge vulnerability assessment, focusing on coastal sandy dunes as natural barriers. The aim is to combine together eco-geomorphological and socio-economic variables with the hazard component on the base of different approaches: 1) Fuzzy Logic; 2) Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). The Fuzzy Logic approach is very useful to get a spatialized information and it can easily combine variables coming from different sources. It provides information on vulnerability moving along-shore and across-shore (beach-dune transect), highlighting the variability of vulnerability conditions in the spatial

  10. How useful are Swiss flood insurance data for flood vulnerability assessments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röthlisberger, Veronika; Bernet, Daniel; Zischg, Andreas; Keiler, Margreth

    2015-04-01

    vulnerability and resilience assessments. For instance, the collation of insurance loss data with event documentations containing information on flood intensity allows to develop damage curves. Flood damage curves are fundamental for many risk analysis methodologies but to date only few are published and the spatial and temporal scope of their applicability is subject of discussion. Another possibility of using insurance data lies in the field of assessment exposure, where the analysis of comprehensive insurance portfolio data can improve the understanding of the physical but also the socio-economical vulnerability of a society. The poster spotlights key opportunities and challenges scientists are facing when using insurance data for flood vulnerability assessments.

  11. Remote Sensing Based Vulnerability Assessment of Desertification in Mongolia and Myanmar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, C. H.; Lee, E. J.; Song, C.; Lee, W. K.; Jeon, S. W.

    2015-12-01

    Desertification is one of the global threatening problems in respect of society, economy, and environment, and the assessment of desertification is essential for land planning and management. However desertification is a process that encompasses various factors in various aspects, having difficulties to assess qualitatively. The main purpose of the research is to qualitatively assess sensitivity of land to desertification, and detect the most vulnerable land to desertification in Mongolia and Myanmar using the Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) approach. MEDALUS approach aims to provide a manual on key indicators of desertification and mapping environmentally sensitive areas to desertification in the Mediterranean countries. However in this research, MEDALUS approach is implemented and reviewed on the countries located in the Middle Asia; Mongolia and Myanmar. MEDALUS approach identifies regions with the highest risk of desertification with 4 quality index; climate, soil, vegetation, management. Within the four quality index are several regional scale indicators for Mongolia and Myanmar, which gives effect with increasing or decreasing risk of desertification. MODIS satellite images, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), and climatic and geographical data were used to calculate the indicators. The weighting of each indicator ranged from 1 to 2; the higher weight the more vulnerable to desertification. The weighted indicators were allocated to 4 quality index, and the four quality index was summed to calculate Environmentally Sensitive Area Index (ESAI) representing the vulnerability of land degradation to desertification. As a result, the Middle East region of Mongolia showed the highest sensitivity, thus the most vulnerable to desertification. Based on the result of this study, it is useful to identify the current state of affairs and the necessity of land planning in Mongolia and Myanmar, one tool that can be utilized for combating desertification. The

  12. Tsunami damages assessment: vulnerability functions on buildings based on field and earth observation survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gauraz, A. L.; Valencia, N.; Koscielny, M.; Guillande, R.; Gardi, A.; Leone, F.; Salaun, T.

    2009-04-01

    The assessment of damages caused by tsunami scenarios on coastal buildings requires using vulnerability matrixes or functions to carry out a relation between the magnitude of the phenomena and the damage expected. These functions represent the probability for a building belonging to a class of vulnerability to suffer from a mean damage level. The physical vulnerability of buildings depends on two parameters: the solicitation level applied by the tsunami on buildings and their resistance capacity. According to the authors after post-tsunami observations (Reese et al. 2007; Ruangrassamee et al. 2006; Leone et al. 2006; Peiris 2006), the level of damage is clearly linked to the water elevation of the inundated areas and the type of observed buildings. Very few works propose relations based on velocity or hydrodynamic pressure of the waves. An approach developed for the estimation of the building vulnerability consists in deriving empirical damage functions starting from field observations. As part of the SCHEMA European Project on the vulnerability assessment for tsunami hazards in the Atlantic and Mediterranean area, vulnerability functions have been elaborated for different classes of buildings in order to produce vulnerability maps for exposed areas with emphasis on extraction of building characteristics using remote sensing data. The damage detection has been carried out by field data collected after the 24 December 2006 tsunami event on the southwest area of Banda Aceh (Sumatra, Thailand) completed by photo-interpretation of satellite images to get representative functions with large population of samples. The building classes consist in several categories depending mainly on the type of construction material (timber/bamboo, traditional brick, reinforced concrete …), the type of structure (beam, pillars, etc) and the number of storeys. The level of damage has been also classified in five categories, from D0 (no damage) to D5 (total destruction). Vulnerability

  13. Identification and assessment of potential vulnerabilities in the poultry meat production chain to dangerous agents and substances

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schwägele, F.C.; Andrée, S.; Beraquet, N.; Castrillon, M.; Winkel, C.; Garforth, D.; Cnossen, H.J.; Lucas Luijckx, N.B.; Ayalew, G.

    2009-01-01

    The specific targeted European research project ΣChain (2006) addresses existing as well as potential vulnerabilities within food chains. One of the food chains within the focus of ΣChain is dealing with poultry meat. Fundamental for the assessment of potential vulnerabilities in the chain is basic

  14. Vulnerability assessment of archaeological sites to earthquake hazard: An indicator based method integrating spatial and temporal aspects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Despina Minos-Minopoulos

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Across the world, numerous sites of cultural heritage value are at risk from a variety of human-induced and natural hazards such as war and earthquakes. Here we present and test a novel indicator-based method for assessing the vulnerability of archaeological sites to earthquakes. Vulnerability is approached as a dynamic element assessed through a combination of spatial and temporal parameters. The spatial parameters examine the susceptibility of the sites to the secondary Earthquake Environmental Effects of ground liquefaction, landslides and tsunami and are expressed through the Spatial Susceptibility Index (SSi. Parameters of physical vulnerability, economic importance and visitors density examine the temporal vulnerability of the sites expressed through the Temporal Vulnerability Index (TVi. The equally weighted sum of the spatial and temporal indexes represents the total Archaeological Site Vulnerability Index (A.S.V.I.. The A.S.V.I method is applied at 16 archaeological sites across Greece, allowing an assessment of their vulnerability. This then allows the establishment of a regional and national priority list for considering future risk mitigation. Results indicate that i the majority of the sites have low to moderate vulnerability to earthquake hazard, ii Neratzia Fortress on Kos and Heraion on Samos are characterised as highly vulnerable and should be prioritised for further studies and mitigation measures, and iii the majority of the sites are susceptible to at least one Earthquake Environmental Effect and present relatively high physical vulnerability attributed to the existing limited conservation works. This approach highlights the necessity for an effective vulnerability assessment methodology within the existing framework of disaster risk management for cultural heritage.

  15. The Combined Use of Airborne Remote Sensing Techniques within a GIS Environment for the Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Urban Areas: An Operational Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Costanzo

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The knowledge of the topographic features, the building properties, and the road infrastructure settings are relevant operational tasks for managing post-crisis events, restoration activities, and for supporting search and rescue operations. Within such a framework, airborne remote sensing tools have demonstrated to be powerful instruments, whose joint use can provide meaningful analyses to support the risk assessment of urban environments. Based on this rationale, in this study, the operational benefits obtained by combining airborne LiDAR and hyperspectral measurements are shown. Terrain and surface digital models are gathered by using LiDAR data. Information about roads and roof materials are provided through the supervised classification of hyperspectral images. The objective is to combine such products within a geographic information system (GIS providing value-added maps to be used for the seismic vulnerability assessment of urban environments. Experimental results are gathered for the city of Cosenza, Italy.

  16. Multi-criteria evaluation of hydro-geological and anthropogenic parameters for the groundwater vulnerability assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Prashant; Thakur, Praveen K; Bansod, Baban Ks; Debnath, Sanjit K

    2017-10-16

    Groundwater contamination assessment is a challenging task due to inherent complex dynamisms associated with the groundwater. DRASTIC is a very widely used rapid regional tool for the assessment of vulnerability of groundwater to contamination. DRASTIC has many lacunas in the form of subjectivities associated with weights and ratings of its hydro-geological parameters, and, therefore, the accuracy of the DRASTIC-based vulnerability map is questioned. The present study demonstrates the optimisation of the DRASTIC parameters along with a scientific consideration to the anthropogenic factors causing groundwater contamination. The resulting scientific consistent weights and ratings to DRASTIC parameters assist in the development of a very precise groundwater vulnerability map highlighting different zones of different gravity of contamination. One of the most important aspects of this study is that we have considered the impact of vadose zone in a very comprehensive manner by considering every sub-surface layer from the earth surface to the occurrence of groundwater. The study area for our experiment is Fatehgarh Sahib district of Punjab which is facing several groundwater issues.

  17. Development of a structural health monitoring system for the life assessment of critical transportation infrastructure.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roach, Dennis Patrick; Jauregui, David Villegas (New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM); Daumueller, Andrew Nicholas (New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM)

    2012-02-01

    Recent structural failures such as the I-35W Mississippi River Bridge in Minnesota have underscored the urgent need for improved methods and procedures for evaluating our aging transportation infrastructure. This research seeks to develop a basis for a Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) system to provide quantitative information related to the structural integrity of metallic structures to make appropriate management decisions and ensuring public safety. This research employs advanced structural analysis and nondestructive testing (NDT) methods for an accurate fatigue analysis. Metal railroad bridges in New Mexico will be the focus since many of these structures are over 100 years old and classified as fracture-critical. The term fracture-critical indicates that failure of a single component may result in complete collapse of the structure such as the one experienced by the I-35W Bridge. Failure may originate from sources such as loss of section due to corrosion or cracking caused by fatigue loading. Because standard inspection practice is primarily visual, these types of defects can go undetected due to oversight, lack of access to critical areas, or, in riveted members, hidden defects that are beneath fasteners or connection angles. Another issue is that it is difficult to determine the fatigue damage that a structure has experienced and the rate at which damage is accumulating due to uncertain history and load distribution in supporting members. A SHM system has several advantages that can overcome these limitations. SHM allows critical areas of the structure to be monitored more quantitatively under actual loading. The research needed to apply SHM to metallic structures was performed and a case study was carried out to show the potential of SHM-driven fatigue evaluation to assess the condition of critical transportation infrastructure and to guide inspectors to potential problem areas. This project combines the expertise in transportation infrastructure at New

  18. Soil Quality Assessment Is a Necessary First Step for Designing Urban Green Infrastructure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery, James A; Klimas, Christie A; Arcus, Joseph; DeKnock, Christian; Rico, Kathryn; Rodriguez, Yarency; Vollrath, Katherine; Webb, Ellen; Williams, Allison

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes the results of a preliminary project conducted by a team of DePaul University undergraduate students and staff from the Gary Comer Youth Center located on Chicago's South Side. The team assessed soil quality on 116 samples collected among four abandoned residential lots adjacent to the Comer Center. Soil quality data will be used in a follow-up study to determine the suitability of each lot for green infrastructure implementation. Green infrastructure may be a useful approach for providing ecosystem services and mitigating food deserts in inner-city communities. Soil quality on all lots was poor. All soils had pH >8.0, low biological activity, and low N mineralization potential. The soils were rich in available P and had mean total Pb concentrations above the USEPA threshold (400 mg kg) for children's playlots. Mean bioavailable Pb on the largest of the four lots was 12% of total Pb, indicating that most of the total Pb is not bioavailable. This result is encouraging because high bioavailable Pb concentrations are linked with negative health effects, particularly in children. All lots had NO-N concentrations below those considered to be appropriate for plant growth. On the other hand, no significant differences in mean concentrations of the other analytes were found. The poor soil quality in the four lots presents an opportunity to use green infrastructure to enhance ecosystem services, improve community and environmental health, and provide more equitable access to green space. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  19. The Application of Weighted Entropy Theory in Vulnerability Assessment and On-Line Reconfiguration Implementation of Microgrids

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Zhan

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available With the consideration of randomness of distributed generations and loads, this paper has proposed a method for vulnerability assessment of microgrids based on complex network theory and entropy theory, which can explain the influence of the inherent structure characteristics and system internal energy distribution on the microgrid. The vulnerability assessment index is built, and the on-line reconfiguration model considering the vulnerability assessment of microgrid is also established. An improved cellular bat algorithm is tested on the CERTS system to implement the real time reconfiguration fast and accurately to provide the basis of theory and practice.

  20. Feasibility Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Projects: The CBA-DK Decision Support Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Banister, David

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents the final version of the CBA-DK decision support model for assessment of transport projects. The model makes use of conventional cost-benefit analysis resulting in aggregated single point estimates and quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation resulting in interval...... results. Two special concerns in this paper is firstly the treatment of feasibility risk assessment adopted for evaluation of transport infrastructure projects, and secondly whether this can provide a more robust decision support model. This means moving away from a single point estimate to an interval...... result, and the determination of suitable probability distributions. Use is made of the reference class forecasting information, such as that developed in Optimism Bias for adjustments to investment decisions that relate to all modes of transport. The CBA-DK decision support model results in more...

  1. Vulnerability assessment in social networks under cascade-based node departures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malliaros, Fragkiskos D.; Vazirgiannis, Michalis

    2015-06-01

    In social networks, new users decide to become members, but also current users depart from the network or stop being active in the activities of their community. The departure of a user may affect the engagement of its neighbors in the graph, that successively may also decide to leave, leading to a disengagement epidemic. We propose a model to capture this cascading effect, based on recent studies about the engagement dynamics of social networks. We introduce a new concept of vulnerability assessment under cascades triggered by the departure of nodes based on their engagement level. Our results indicate that social networks are robust under cascades triggered by randomly selected nodes but highly vulnerable in cascades caused by targeted departures of nodes with high engagement level.

  2. Power System Structural Vulnerability Assessment based on an Improved Maximum Flow Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fang, Jiakun; Su, Chi; Chen, Zhe

    2017-01-01

    (PCA) and convex hull. Then the second step is to use an improved maximum flow based complex network approach for topology analysis. Weighted vertices in the network are considered, enabling taking the selected operating conditions into consideration when identifying the vulnerable lines. The proposed......With the increasing complexity of the power grid and the concerns on major blackouts, there is an urgent need for an efficient and effective tool to assess the power system structural vulnerability. To tackle this challenge, this paper proposes a maximum flow based complex network approach...... to identify the critical lines in a system. The proposed method consists of two major steps. First, the power network is modeled as a graph with edges (transmission lines, transformers, etc.) and nodes (buses, substations, etc.). The critical scenarios are identified by using the principal component analysis...

  3. Physically-Based Assessment of Intrinsic Groundwater Resource Vulnerability in AN Urban Catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graf, T.; Therrien, R.; Lemieux, J.; Molson, J. W.

    2013-12-01

    Several methods exist to assess intrinsic groundwater (re)source vulnerability for the purpose of sustainable groundwater management and protection. However, several methods are empirical and limited in their application to specific types of hydrogeological systems. Recent studies suggest that a physically-based approach could be better suited to provide a general, conceptual and operational basis for groundwater vulnerability assessment. A novel method for physically-based assessment of intrinsic aquifer vulnerability is currently under development and tested to explore the potential of an integrated modelling approach, combining groundwater travel time probability and future scenario modelling in conjunction with the fully integrated HydroGeoSphere model. To determine the intrinsic groundwater resource vulnerability, a fully coupled 2D surface water and 3D variably-saturated groundwater flow model in conjunction with a 3D geological model (GoCAD) has been developed for a case study of the Rivière Saint-Charles (Québec/Canada) regional scale, urban watershed. The model has been calibrated under transient flow conditions for the hydrogeological, variably-saturated subsurface system, coupled with the overland flow zone by taking into account monthly recharge variation and evapotranspiration. To better determine the intrinsic groundwater vulnerability, two independent approaches are considered and subsequently combined in a simple, holistic multi-criteria-decision analyse. Most data for the model comes from an extensive hydrogeological database for the watershed, whereas data gaps have been complemented via field tests and literature review. The subsurface is composed of nine hydrofacies, ranging from unconsolidated fluvioglacial sediments to low permeability bedrock. The overland flow zone is divided into five major zones (Urban, Rural, Forest, River and Lake) to simulate the differences in landuse, whereas the unsaturated zone is represented via the model

  4. Coastal Hazard Vulnerability Assessment: A Case Study of Erosion and Flooding on Herschel Island, Yukon Territory, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radosavljevic, B.; Lantuit, H.; Overduin, P. P.; Fritz, M.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal infrastructure, cultural, and archeological sites are increasingly vulnerable to erosion and flooding along permafrost coasts. Amplified warming of the Arctic, sea level rise, lengthening of the open water period, and a predicted increase in frequency of major storms compound these threats. Mitigation necessitates decision-making tools at an appropriate scale. We present a study of coastal erosion combining it with a flooding risk assessment for the culturally important historic settlement on Herschel Island, a UNESCO World Heritage candidate site. The resulting map may help local stakeholders devise management strategies to cope with rapidly changing environmental conditions. We analyzed shoreline movement using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) after digitizing shorelines from 1952, 1970, and 2011. Using these data, forecasts of shoreline positions were made for 20 and 50 years into the future. Flooding risk was assessed using a cost-distance map based on a high-resolution Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) dataset and current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level estimates. Widespread erosion characterizes the study area. The rate of shoreline movement for different periods of the study ranges from -5.5 to 2.7 m·a-1 (mean -0.6 m·a-1). Mean coastal retreat decreased from -0.6 m·a-1 to -0.5 m·a-1, for 1952-1970 and 1970-2000, respectively, and increased to -1.3 m·a-1 in the period 2000-2011. Ice-rich coastal sections, and coastal sections most exposed to wave attack exhibited the highest rates of coastal retreat. The geohazard map resulting from shoreline projections and flood risk analysis indicates that most of the area occupied by the historic settlement is at extreme or very high risk of flooding, and some buildings are vulnerable to coastal erosion. The results of this study indicate a greater threat by coastal flooding than erosion. Our assessment may be applied in other locations where limited data are available.

  5. Crossing physical simulations of snow conditions and a geographic model of ski area to assess ski resorts vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    François, Hugues; Spandre, Pierre; Morin, Samuel; George-Marcelpoil, Emmanuelle; Lafaysse, Matthieu; Lejeune, Yves

    2016-04-01

    In order to face climate change, meteorological variability and the recurrent lack of natural snow on the ground, ski resorts adaptation often rely on technical responses. Indeed, since the occurrence of episodes with insufficient snowfalls in the early 1990's, snowmaking has become an ordinary practice of snow management, comparable to grooming, and contributes to optimise the operation of ski resorts. It also participates to the growth of investments and is associated with significant operating costs, and thus represents a new source of vulnerability. The assessment of the actual effects of snowmaking and of snow management practices in general is a real concern for the future of the ski industry. The principal model use to simulate snow conditions in resorts, Ski Sim, has also been moving this way. Its developers introduced an artificial input of snow on ski area to complete natural snowfalls and considered different organisations of ski lifts (lower and upper zones). However the use of a degree-day model prevents them to consider the specific properties of artificial snow and the impact of grooming on the snowpack. A first proof of concept in the French Alps has shown the feasibility and the interest to cross the geographic model of ski areas and the output of the physically-based reanalysis of snow conditions SAFRAN - Crocus (François et al., CRST 2014). Since these initial developments, several ways have been explored to refine our model. A new model of ski areas has been developed. Our representation is now based on gravity derived from a DEM and ski lift localisation. A survey about snow management practices also allowed us to define criteria in order to model snowmaking areas given ski areas properties and tourism infrastructures localisation. We also suggest to revisit the assessment of ski resort viability based on the "one hundred days rule" based on natural snow depth only. Indeed, the impact of snow management must be considered so as to propose

  6. The drought risk of maize in the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China based on physical vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhiqiang; Jiang, Jingyi; Ma, Qing

    2016-12-01

    Climate change is affecting every aspect of human activities, especially the agriculture. In China, extreme drought events caused by climate change have posed a great threat to food safety. In this work we aimed to study the drought risk of maize in the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China based on physical vulnerability assessment. The physical vulnerability curve was constructed from the relationship between drought hazard intensity index and yield loss rate. The risk assessment of agricultural drought was conducted from the drought hazard intensity index and physical vulnerability curve. The probability distribution of drought hazard intensity index decreased from south-west to north-east and increased from south-east to north-west along the rainfall isoline. The physical vulnerability curve had a reduction effect in three parts of the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China, which helped to reduce drought hazard vulnerability on spring maize. The risk of yield loss ratio calculated based on physical vulnerability curve was lower compared with the drought hazard intensity index, which suggested that the capacity of spring maize to resist and adapt to drought is increasing. In conclusion, the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China is greatly sensitive to climate change and has a high probability of severe drought hazard. Risk assessment of physical vulnerability can help better understand the physical vulnerability to agricultural drought and can also promote measurements to adapt to climate change.

  7. A holistic approach for assessing impact of extreme weather on critical infrastructure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Räikkönen, M.; Mäki, K.; Murtonen, M.; Forssén, K.; Tagg, A.; Petiet, P.J.; Nieuwenhuijs, A.H.; McCord, M.

    2016-01-01

    Urban infrastructures are essential to the health, safety, security and economic well-being of citizens and organisations. Therefore, the managers of critical infrastructures (CI) and infrastructure systems in urban areas need to be constantly aware of and prepared for to any man-made and natural

  8. Applicability of vulnerability maps

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersen, L.J.; Gosk, E. (Geological Survey of Denmark, Copenhagen (Denmark))

    A number of aspects to vulnerability maps are discussed: the vulnerability concept, mapping purposes, possible users, and applicability of vulnerability maps. Problems associated with general-type vulnerability mapping, including large-scale maps, universal pollutant, and universal pollution scenario are also discussed. An alternative approach to vulnerability assessment - specific vulnerability mapping for limited areas, specific pollutant, and predefined pollution scenario - is suggested. A simplification of the vulnerability concept is proposed in order to make vulnerability mapping more objective and by this means more comparable. An extension of the vulnerability concept to the rest of the hydrogeological cycle (lakes, rivers, and the sea) is proposed. Some recommendations regarding future activities are given.

  9. Vulnerability assessment of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods using Remote Sensing and GIS in North Sikkim (India), Eastern Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggarwal, Suruchi; Probha Devi, Juna; Thakur, Praveen Kumar; Rai, Suresh Chand

    2016-04-01

    Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occur when glacier melt water dammed by a moraine is released in short time. Such floods may lead to disastrous events posing, therefore, a huge threat to human lives and infrastructure. A devastating GLOF in Uttarakhand, India, on 17 July 2013 has led to the loss of all villages in a stretch of 18 km downstream the lake and the loss of more than 5000 lives. The present study evaluates all 16 glacial lakes (with an area >0.1 km²) in the Thangu valley, northern Sikkim (India), eastern Himalaya, with respect to potential threats for the downstream areas. The hazard criteria for the study include slope, aspect and distance of the respective parent glacier, change in the lake area, dam characteristics and lake depth. For the most hazardous lakes, the socio-economic conditions in the downstream areas (settlements and infrastructure) are analysed regarding the impact of potential GLOFs. For the vulnerability analysis, we used various satellite products including LANDSAT, RESOUCESAT-1 and 2, RISAT-1 imageries and ASTER GDEM covering the period from 1977 to 2014. For lake mapping, we applied the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI). A Land Use Land Cover (LULC) map of the study area showing in-situ observations is serving as driving factor for the vulnerability analysis. The results of the study show that almost all evaluated glacial lakes were expanding during the study period (1977-2014). Combining the hazard criteria for the lakes, 5 of the 16 studied glacial lakes are identified as highly hazardous. In the downstream area, there are two villages with 200 inhabitants and an army camp within the zone of highest vulnerability. The identified vulnerability zones may be used by the local authorities to take caution of the threatened villages and infrastructure and for risk analysis for planned future hydropower plants.

  10. A toolkit for integrated deterministic and probabilistic assessment for hydrogen infrastructure.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groth, Katrina M.; Tchouvelev, Andrei V.

    2014-03-01

    There has been increasing interest in using Quantitative Risk Assessment [QRA] to help improve the safety of hydrogen infrastructure and applications. Hydrogen infrastructure for transportation (e.g. fueling fuel cell vehicles) or stationary (e.g. back-up power) applications is a relatively new area for application of QRA vs. traditional industrial production and use, and as a result there are few tools designed to enable QRA for this emerging sector. There are few existing QRA tools containing models that have been developed and validated for use in small-scale hydrogen applications. However, in the past several years, there has been significant progress in developing and validating deterministic physical and engineering models for hydrogen dispersion, ignition, and flame behavior. In parallel, there has been progress in developing defensible probabilistic models for the occurrence of events such as hydrogen release and ignition. While models and data are available, using this information is difficult due to a lack of readily available tools for integrating deterministic and probabilistic components into a single analysis framework. This paper discusses the first steps in building an integrated toolkit for performing QRA on hydrogen transportation technologies and suggests directions for extending the toolkit.

  11. Time-dependent resilience assessment and improvement of urban infrastructure systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Min; Dueñas-Osorio, Leonardo

    2012-09-01

    This paper introduces an approach to assess and improve the time-dependent resilience of urban infrastructure systems, where resilience is defined as the systems' ability to resist various possible hazards, absorb the initial damage from hazards, and recover to normal operation one or multiple times during a time period T. For different values of T and its position relative to current time, there are three forms of resilience: previous resilience, current potential resilience, and future potential resilience. This paper mainly discusses the third form that takes into account the systems' future evolving processes. Taking the power transmission grid in Harris County, Texas, USA as an example, the time-dependent features of resilience and the effectiveness of some resilience-inspired strategies, including enhancement of situational awareness, management of consumer demand, and integration of distributed generators, are all simulated and discussed. Results show a nonlinear nature of resilience as a function of T, which may exhibit a transition from an increasing function to a decreasing function at either a threshold of post-blackout improvement rate, a threshold of load profile with consumer demand management, or a threshold number of integrated distributed generators. These results are further confirmed by studying a typical benchmark system such as the IEEE RTS-96. Such common trends indicate that some resilience strategies may enhance infrastructure system resilience in the short term, but if not managed well, they may compromise practical utility system resilience in the long run.

  12. A Contamination Vulnerability Assessment for the Santa Clara and San Mateo County Groundwater Basins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moran, J E; Hudson, G B; Eaton, G F; Leif, R

    2004-01-06

    In response to concerns expressed by the California Legislature and the citizenry of the State of California, the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB), implemented a program to assess groundwater quality, and provide a predictive capability for identifying areas that are vulnerable to contamination. The program was initiated in response to concern over public supply well closures due to contamination by chemicals such as MtBE from gasoline, and solvents from industrial operations. As a result of this increased awareness regarding groundwater quality, the Supplemental Report of the 1999 Budget Act mandated the SWRCB to develop a comprehensive ambient groundwater-monitoring plan, and led to the initiation of the Ambient Groundwater Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The primary objective of the GAMA Program is to assess the water quality and to predict the relative susceptibility to contamination of groundwater resources throughout the state of California. Under the GAMA program, scientists from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) collaborate with the SWRCB, the U.S. Geological Survey, the California Department of Health Services (DHS), and the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to implement this groundwater assessment program. In 2001 and 2002, LLNL carried out this vulnerability study in the groundwater basins of Santa Clara County and San Mateo County, located to the south of the city of San Francisco. The goal of the study is to provide a probabilistic assessment of the relative vulnerability of groundwater used for the public water supply to contamination from surface sources. This assessment of relative contamination vulnerability is made based on the results of two types of analyses that are not routinely carried out at public water supply wells: ultra low-level measurement of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and groundwater age dating (using the tritium-helium-3 method). In addition, stable oxygen isotope measurements

  13. A model for assessing the systemic vulnerability in landslide prone areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Pascale

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of spatial planning should include the definition and assessment of possible mitigation strategies regarding the effects of natural hazards on the surrounding territory. Unfortunately, however, there is often a lack of adequate tools to provide necessary support to the local bodies responsible for land management. This paper deals with the conception, the development and the validation of an integrated numerical model for assessing systemic vulnerability in complex and urbanized landslide-prone areas. The proposed model considers this vulnerability not as a characteristic of a particular element at risk, but as a peculiarity of a complex territorial system, in which the elements are reciprocally linked in a functional way. It is an index of the tendency of a given territorial element to suffer damage (usually of a functional kind due to its interconnections with other elements of the same territorial system. The innovative nature of this work also lies in the formalization of a procedure based on a network of influences for an adequate assessment of such "systemic" vulnerability.

    This approach can be used to obtain information which is useful, in any given situation of a territory hit by a landslide event, for the identification of the element which has suffered the most functional damage, ie the most "critical" element and the element which has the greatest repercussions on other elements of the system and thus a "decisive" role in the management of the emergency.

    This model was developed within a GIS system through the following phases:

    1. the topological characterization of the territorial system studied and the assessment of the scenarios in terms of spatial landslide hazard. A statistical method, based on neural networks was proposed for the assessment of landslide hazard;

    2. the analysis of the direct consequences of a scenario event on the system;

    3. the definition of the

  14. Community vulnerability assessment index for flood prone savannah agro-ecological zone: A case study of Wa West District, Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Effah Kwabena Antwi

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The savannah regions of Northern Ghana are characterized by smallholder farming systems and high levels of poverty. Over the past two decades, communities in the regions have become more prone to climate and human-induced disasters in the form of annual floods and droughts. This study evaluates the degree and magnitude of vulnerability in four communities subjected to similar climate change induced flood events and propose intervention options. The study employs rural participatory research approaches in developing four vulnerability categories namely socio-economic, ecological, engineering and political; which were used to develop indicators that aided the calculation of total community vulnerability index for each community. The findings indicate that the state of a community's vulnerability to flood is a composite effect of the four vulnerability index categories which may act independently or concurrently to produce the net effect. Based on a synthesis of total vulnerability obtained in each community, Baleufili was found to be the least vulnerable to flood due to its high scores in engineering, socio-economic and political vulnerability indicators. Baleufili and Bankpama were the most ecologically vulnerable communities. The selection of vulnerability index categories and associated indicators were grounded in specific local peculiarities that evolved out of engagement with community stakeholders and expert knowledge of the socioecological landscape. Thus, the Total Community Vulnerability Assessment Framework (TCVAF provides an effective decision support for identifying communities’ vulnerability status and help to design both short and long term interventions options that are community specific as a way of enhancing their coping and adaptive capacity to disasters.

  15. Assessing social vulnerability to climate change in human communities near public forests and grasslands: a framework for resource managers and planners

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. Paige Fischer; Travis Paveglio; Matthew Carroll; Daniel Murphy; Hannah Brenkert-Smith

    2013-01-01

    Public land management agencies have incorporated the concept of vulnerability into protocols for assessing and planning for climate change impacts on public forests and grasslands. However, resource managers and planners have little guidance for how to address the social aspects of vulnerability in these assessments and plans. Failure to assess social vulnerability to...

  16. Comparison of empirical and numerical methods for the assessment of coastal vulnerability to erosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kokkinos, Dimitris; Prinos, Panagiotis

    2017-04-01

    Assessing the vulnerability to erosion is an important step in order to identify the prone areas and propose an adaptation policy to climate change in coastal areas. In this paper two coastal areas at the Northern part of the Aegean Sea are selected to examine their vulnerability to erosion. The first case is Lesbos Island where the most common feature is pocket beaches and the second one is the coast of Thrace composed by long sandy beaches. In both case studies, the same simplified methodology proposed by Mendoza and Jimenez (2009) is used, which links the vulnerability to erosion with morphodynamic parameters such as beach retreat and beach width. The key parameter for the vulnerability assessment is the beach retreat. For its calculation two different approaches are used and compared. The first approach divides the eroded volume with the eroded depth and it is based on an empirical formula, derived for the Greek seas from the CCSEAWAVS project (Kokkinos et al, 2014), which links the eroded volume with JA parameter, a beach erosion predictor proposed by Jimenez (1993). The sediment fall velocity, the beach slope and the wave characteristics are the only necessary parameters to calculate JA. The second approach is based on the results derived from the numerical model Xbeach (Roelvink et al., 2009), which is an open source, state-of the-art, two-dimensional model including the hydrodynamic processes of short and long wave transformation, wave-induced setup, overwash, inundation, as well as the morphodynamic processes of bed load and suspended sediment transport, dune face avalanching, bed update and breaching. The results indicate that the area of Thrace is very prone to erosion at the eastern and western part of the study area, while the Island of Lesbos appears to have very low vulnerability. The application of this methodology with the two different approaches aims to generate useful information about the vulnerability to erosion, to examine the reliability of

  17. Freshwater vulnerability under high end climate change. A pan-European assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koutroulis, A G; Papadimitriou, L V; Grillakis, M G; Tsanis, I K; Wyser, K; Betts, R A

    2018-02-01

    As freshwater availability is crucial for securing a sustainable, lower‑carbon future, there is a critical connection between water management and climate policies. Under a rapidly changing climate, it is more important than ever to estimate the degree of future water security. This is a challenging task as it depends on many different variables: the degree of warming and its consequent effects on hydrological resources, the water demand by different sectors, and the possible ameliorations or deteriorations of the effects due to climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. A simple and transparent conceptual framework has been developed to assess the European vulnerability to freshwater stress under the present hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions, in comparison to projections of future vulnerability for different degrees of global warming (1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C), under the high-rate warming scenario (RCP8.5). Different levels of adaptation to climate change are considered in the framework, by employing various relevant pathways of socioeconomic development. A spatially detailed pan-European map of vulnerability to freshwater shortage has been developed at the local administrative level, making this approach extremely useful for supporting regional level policymaking and implementation and strategic planning against future freshwater stress. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. The role of hazard vulnerability assessments in disaster preparedness and prevention in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Yan; Ding, Yibo; Li, Zixiong; Cao, Guangwen

    2015-01-01

    China is prone to disasters and escalating disaster losses. Effective disaster mitigation is the foundation for efficient disaster response and rescue and for reducing the degree of hazardous impacts on the population. Vulnerability refers to the population's capacity to anticipate, cope with, and recover from the impact of a hazardous event. A hazard vulnerability assessment (HVA) systematically evaluates the damage that could be caused by a potential disaster, the severity of the impact, and the available medical resources during a disaster to reduce population vulnerability and increase the capacity to cope with disasters. In this article, we summarized HVA team membership, content (disaster identification, probability and consequences), and methods and procedures for an HVA that can be tailored to China's needs. We further discussed the role of epidemiology in an HVA. Disaster epidemiology studies the underlying causes of disasters to achieve effective disaster prevention and reduction. In addition, we made several recommendations that are already in practice in developed countries, such as the U.S., for future implementation in China and other developing countries. An effective HVA plan is crucial for successful disaster preparedness, response, and recovery.

  19. Connectivity, neutral theories and the assessment of species vulnerability to global change in temperate estuaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chust, Guillem; Albaina, Aitor; Aranburu, Aizkorri; Borja, Ángel; Diekmann, Onno E.; Estonba, Andone; Franco, Javier; Garmendia, Joxe M.; Iriondo, Mikel; Muxika, Iñigo; Rendo, Fernando; Rodríguez, J. Germán; Ruiz-Larrañaga, Otsanda; Serrão, Ester A.; Valle, Mireia

    2013-10-01

    One of the main adaptation strategies to global change scenarios, aiming to preserve ecosystem functioning and biodiversity, is to maximize ecosystem resilience. The resilience of a species metapopulation can be improved by facilitating connectivity between local populations, which will prevent demographic stochasticity and inbreeding. This investigation estimated the degree of connectivity among estuarine species along the north-eastern Iberian coast, in order to assess community vulnerability to global change scenarios. To address this objective, two connectivity proxy types have been used based upon genetic and ecological drift processes: 1) DNA markers for the bivalve cockle (Cerastoderma edule) and seagrass Zostera noltei, and 2) the decrease in the number of species shared between two sites with geographic distance. Neutral biodiversity theory predicts that dispersal limitation modulates this decrease, and this has been explored in estuarine plants and macroinvertebrates. Results indicate dispersal limitation for both saltmarsh plants and seagrass beds community and Z. noltei populations; this suggests they are especially vulnerable to expected climate changes on their habitats. In contrast, unstructured spatial pattern found in macroinvertebrate communities and in C. edule genetic populations in the area suggests that estuarine soft-bottom macroinvertebrates with planktonic larval dispersal strategies may have a high resilience capacity to moderate changes within their habitats. Our findings allow environmental managers to prioritize the most vulnerable species and habitats to be restored.

  20. Tsunami vulnerability and damage assessment in the coastal area of Rabat and Salé, Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Atillah

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This study, a companion paper to Renou et al. (2011, focuses on the application of a GIS-based method to assess building vulnerability and damage in the event of a tsunami affecting the coastal area of Rabat and Salé, Morocco. This approach, designed within the framework of the European SCHEMA project (www.schemaproject.org is based on the combination of hazard results from numerical modelling of the worst case tsunami scenario (inundation depth based on the historical Lisbon earthquake of 1755 and the Portugal earthquake of 1969, together with vulnerability building types derived from Earth Observation data, field surveys and GIS data. The risk is then evaluated for this highly concentrated population area characterized by the implementation of a vast project of residential and touristic buildings within the flat area of the Bouregreg Valley separating the cities of Rabat and Salé. A GIS tool is used to derive building damage maps by crossing layers of inundation levels and building vulnerability. The inferred damage maps serve as a base for elaborating evacuation plans with appropriate rescue and relief processes and to prepare and consider appropriate measures to prevent the induced tsunami risk.

  1. Vulnerability assessment and strategies for the Sheldon National Wildlife Refuge and Hart Mountain National Antelope Refuge Complex : Final report

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This report provides the results of the Refuge Vulnerability Assessment (RVA) for the Sheldon National Wildlife Refuge and Hart Mountain National Antelope Refuge...

  2. The Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment of Urban Environments through Freely Available Datasets: The Case Study of Napoli City (Southern Italy)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ines Alberico; Vincenzo Di Fiore; Roberta Iavarone; Paola Petrosino; Luigi Piemontese; Daniela Tarallo; Michele Punzo; Ennio Marsella

    2015-01-01

    .... Within this framework, a GIS-aided procedure that takes advantage of spatial analysis to apply the Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment model of urban environments is presented, with the main...

  3. A vulnerability assessment of fish and invertebrates to climate change on the northeast US Continental Shelf (NCEI Accession 0154384)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The data represent two outputs from the Northeast Fisheries Climate Vulnerability assessment. The first are the biological sensitivity and climate exposure scores...

  4. Groundwater vulnerability assessment for the Banyas Catchment of the Syrian coastal area using GIS and the RISKE method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kattaa, Bassam; Al-Fares, Walid; Al Charideh, Abdul Rahman

    2010-05-01

    Vulnerability assessment to delineate areas that are more susceptible to contamination from anthropogenic sources has become an important element for sensible resource management and landuse planning. This contribution aims at estimating aquifer vulnerability by applying the RISKE model in Banyas Catchment Area (BCA), Tartous Prefecture, west Syria. An additional objective is to demonstrate the combined use of the RISKE model and a geographical information system (GIS) as an effective method for groundwater pollution risk assessment. The RISKE model uses five environmental parameters (Rock of aquifer media, Infiltration, Soil media, Karst, and Epikarst) to characterize the hydro-geological setting and evaluate aquifer vulnerability. The elevated eastern and low western part of the study area was dominated by high vulnerability classes, while the middle part was characterized by moderate vulnerability classes. Based on the vulnerability analysis, it was found that 2% and 39% of BCA is under low and high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively, while more than 52% and 5% of the area of BCA can be designated as an area of moderate and very high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively. The GIS technique has provided an efficient environment for analyses and high capabilities of handling a large amount of spatial data. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Optimization of DRASTIC method by artificial neural network, nitrate vulnerability index, and composite DRASTIC models to assess groundwater vulnerability for unconfined aquifer of Shiraz Plain, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baghapour, Mohammad Ali; Fadaei Nobandegani, Amir; Talebbeydokhti, Nasser; Bagherzadeh, Somayeh; Nadiri, Ata Allah; Gharekhani, Maryam; Chitsazan, Nima

    2016-01-01

    Extensive human activities and unplanned land uses have put groundwater resources of Shiraz plain at a high risk of nitrate pollution, causing several environmental and human health issues. To address these issues, water resources managers utilize groundwater vulnerability assessment and determination of protection. This study aimed to prepare the