WorldWideScience

Sample records for assessing infrastructure vulnerability

  1. Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Model (I-VAM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezell, Barry Charles

    2007-06-01

    Quantifying vulnerability to critical infrastructure has not been adequately addressed in the literature. Thus, the purpose of this article is to present a model that quantifies vulnerability. Vulnerability is defined as a measure of system susceptibility to threat scenarios. This article asserts that vulnerability is a condition of the system and it can be quantified using the Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Model (I-VAM). The model is presented and then applied to a medium-sized clean water system. The model requires subject matter experts (SMEs) to establish value functions and weights, and to assess protection measures of the system. Simulation is used to account for uncertainty in measurement, aggregate expert assessment, and to yield a vulnerability (Omega) density function. Results demonstrate that I-VAM is useful to decisionmakers who prefer quantification to qualitative treatment of vulnerability. I-VAM can be used to quantify vulnerability to other infrastructures, supervisory control and data acquisition systems (SCADA), and distributed control systems (DCS). PMID:17640208

  2. Assessing infrastructure vulnerability to major floods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jenssen, Lars

    1998-12-31

    This thesis proposes a method for assessing the direct effects of serious floods on a physical infrastructure or utility. This method should be useful in contingency planning and in the design of structures likely to be damaged by flooding. A review is given of (1) methods of floodplain management and strategies for mitigating floods, (2) methods of risk analysis that will become increasingly important in flood management, (3) methods for hydraulic computations, (4) a variety of scour assessment methods and (5) applications of geographic information systems (GIS) to the analysis of flood vulnerability. Three computer codes were developed: CULVCAP computes the headwater level for circular and box culverts, SCOUR for assessing riprap stability and scour depths, and FASTFLOOD prepares input rainfall series and input files for the rainfall-runoff model used in the case study. A road system in central Norway was chosen to study how to analyse the flood vulnerability of an infrastructure. Finally, the thesis proposes a method for analysing the flood vulnerability of physical infrastructure. The method involves a general stage that will provide data on which parts of the infrastructure are potentially vulnerable to flooding and how to analyse them, and a specific stage which is concerned with analysing one particular kind of physical infrastructure in a study area. 123 refs., 59 figs., 17 tabs= .

  3. Assessing Vulnerabilities, Risks, and Consequences of Damage to Critical Infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Since the publication of 'Critical Foundations: Protecting America's Infrastructure,' there has been a keen understanding of the complexity, interdependencies, and shared responsibility required to protect the nation's most critical assets that are essential to our way of life. The original 5 sectors defined in 1997 have grown to 18 Critical Infrastructures and Key Resources (CIKR), which are discussed in the 2009 National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP) and its supporting sector-specific plans. The NIPP provides the structure for a national program dedicated to enhanced protection and resiliency of the nation's infrastructure. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) provides in-depth, multi-disciplinary assessments of threat, vulnerability, and consequence across all 18 sectors at scales ranging from specific facilities to infrastructures spanning multi-state regions, such as the Oil and Natural Gas (ONG) sector. Like many of the CIKR sectors, the ONG sector is comprised of production, processing, distribution, and storage of highly valuable and potentially dangerous commodities. Furthermore, there are significant interdependencies with other sectors, including transportation, communication, finance, and government. Understanding the potentially devastating consequences and collateral damage resulting from a terrorist attack or natural event is an important element of LLNL's infrastructure security programs. Our work began in the energy sector in the late 1990s and quickly expanded other critical infrastructure sectors. We have performed over 600 physical assessments with a particular emphasis on those sectors that utilize, store, or ship potentially hazardous materials and for whom cyber security is important. The success of our approach is based on building awareness of vulnerabilities and risks and working directly with industry partners to collectively advance infrastructure protection. This approach consists of three phases: The Pre-Assessment

  4. Approaches for assessment of vulnerability of critical infrastructures to weather-related hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidsvig, Unni; Uzielli, Marco; Vidar Vangelsten, Bjørn

    2016-04-01

    Critical infrastructures are essential components for the modern society to maintain its function, and malfunctioning of one of the critical infrastructure systems may have far-reaching consequences. Climate changes may lead to increase in frequency and intensity of weather-related hazards, creating challenges for the infrastructures. This paper outlines approaches to assess vulnerability posed by weather-related hazards to infrastructures. The approaches assess factors that affect the probability of a malfunctioning of the infrastructure should a weather-related threat occur, as well factors that affect the societal consequences of the infrastructure malfunctioning. Even if vulnerability factors are normally very infrastructure specific and hazard dependent, generic factors could be defined and analyzed. For the vulnerability and resilience of the infrastructure, such factors include e.g. robustness, buffer capacity, protection, quality, age, adaptability and transparency. For the vulnerability of the society in relation to the infrastructure, such factors include e.g. redundancy, substitutes and cascading effects. A semi-quantitative, indicator-based approach is proposed, providing schemes for ranking of the most important vulnerability indicators relevant for weather-related hazards on a relative scale. The application of the indicators in a semi-quantitative risk assessment is also demonstrated. In addition, a quantitative vulnerability model is proposed in terms of vulnerability (representing degree of loss) as a function of intensity, which is adaptable to different types of degree of loss (e.g. fraction of infrastructure users that lose their service, fraction of repair costs to full reconstruction costs). The vulnerability model can be calibrated with empirical data using deterministic calibration or a variety of probabilistic calibration approaches to account for the uncertainties within the model. The research leading to these results has received funding

  5. Infrastructure network vulnerability

    OpenAIRE

    Kamissoko, Daouda; Pérès, François; ZARATÉ, Pascale

    2011-01-01

    The work presented in this paper aims to propose a methodology of analyzing infrastructure network vulnerability in the field of prevention or reduction of the natural disaster consequences. After a state of the art on vulnerability models in the academic literature, the various vulnerability factors are classified and discussed. Eventually, a general model of vulnerability analysis including societal parameters is presented.

  6. Assessing the vulnerability of infrastructure to climate change on the Islands of Samoa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fakhruddin, S. H. M.; Babel, M. S.; Kawasaki, A.

    2015-06-01

    Pacific Islanders have been exposed to risks associated with climate change. Samoa, as one of the Pacific Islands, is prone to climatic hazards that will likely increase in the coming decades, affecting coastal communities and infrastructure around the islands. Climate models do not predict a reduction of such disaster events in the future in Samoa; indeed, most predict an increase. This paper identifies key infrastructure and their functions and status in order to provide an overall picture of relative vulnerability to climate-related stresses of such infrastructure on the island. By reviewing existing reports as well as holding a series of consultation meetings, a list of critical infrastructure was developed and shared with stakeholders for their consideration. An indicator-based vulnerability model (SIVM) was developed in collaboration with stakeholders to assess the vulnerability of selected infrastructure systems on the Samoan Islands. Damage costs were extracted from the Cyclone Evan recovery needs document. Additionally, data on criticality and capacity to repair damage were collected from stakeholders. Having stakeholder perspectives on these two issues was important because (a) criticality of a given infrastructure could be viewed differently among different stakeholders, and (b) stakeholders were the best available source (in this study) to estimate the capacity to repair non-physical damage to such infrastructure. Analysis of the results suggested a ranking of sectors from the most vulnerable to least vulnerable are: the transportation sector, the power sector, the water supply sector and the sewerage system.

  7. Assessing the vulnerability of infrastructure to climate change on the Islands of Samoa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. H. M. Fakhruddin

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Pacific Islanders have been exposed to risks associated with climate change. Samoa as one of the Pacific Islands are prone to climatic hazards that will likely increase in coming decades, affecting coastal communities and infrastructure around the islands. Climate models do not predict a reduction of such disaster events in the future in Samoa; indeed, most predict an increase in such events. This paper identifies key infrastructure and their functions and status in order to provide an overall picture of relative vulnerability to climate-related stresses of such infrastructure on the island. By reviewing existing reports as well as holding a series of consultation meetings, a list of critical infrastructures were developed and shared with stakeholders for their consideration. An indicator-based vulnerability model (SIVM was developed in collaboration with stakeholders to assess the vulnerability of selected infrastructure systems on the Samoan Islands. Damage costs were extracted from the Evan cyclone recovery needs document. On the other hand, criticality and capacity to repair data were collected from stakeholders. Having stakeholder perspectives on these two issues was important because (a criticality of a given infrastructure could be viewed differently among different stakeholders, and (b stakeholders were the best available source (in this study to estimate the capacity to repair non-physical damage to such infrastructure. Analysis of the results suggested rankings from most vulnerable to least vulnerable sectors are the transportation sector, the power sector, the water supply sector and the sewerage system.

  8. Modeling s-t Path Availability to Support Disaster Vulnerability Assessment of Network Infrastructure

    CERN Document Server

    Matisziw, Timothy C

    2010-01-01

    The maintenance of system flow is critical for effective network operation. Any type of disruption to network facilities (arcs/nodes) potentially risks loss of service, leaving users without access to important resources. It is therefore an important goal of planners to assess infrastructures for vulnerabilities, identifying those vital nodes/arcs whose debilitation would compromise the most source-sink (s-t) interaction or system flow. Due to the budgetary limitations of disaster management agencies, protection/fortification and planning for the recovery of these vital infrastructure facilities is a logical and efficient proactive approach to reducing worst-case risk of service disruption. Given damage to a network, evaluating the potential for flow between s-t pairs requires assessing the availability of an operational s-t path. Recent models proposed for identifying infrastructure vital to system flow have relied on enumeration of all s-t paths to support this task. This paper proposes an alternative model...

  9. Coastal Vulnerability and risk assessment of infrastructures, natural and cultural heritage sites in Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrakis, George; Kampanis, Nikolaos

    2016-04-01

    The majority of human activities are concentrated around coastal areas, making coastline retreat, a significant threat to coastal infrastructure, thus increasing protection cost and investment revenue losses. In this study the management of coastal areas in terms of protecting coastal infrastructures, cultural and environmental heritage sites, through risk assessment analysis is been made. The scope is to provide data for spatial planning for future developments in the coastal zone and the protection of existing ones. Also to determine the impact of coastal changes related to the loss of natural resources, agricultural land and beaches. The analysis is based on a multidisciplinary approach, combining environmental, spatial and economic data. This can be implemented by integrating the assessment of vulnerability of coasts, the spatial distribution and structural elements of coastal infrastructure (transport, tourism, and energy) and financial data by region, in a spatial database. The approach is based on coastal vulnerability estimations, considering sea level rise, land loss, extreme events, safety, adaptability and resilience of infrastructure and natural sites. It is based on coupling of environmental indicators and econometric models to determine the socio-economic impact in coastal infrastructure, cultural and environmental heritage sites. The indicators include variables like the coastal geomorphology; coastal slope; relative sea-level rise rate; shoreline erosion/accretion rate; mean tidal range and mean wave height. The anthropogenic factors include variables like settlements, sites of cultural heritage, transport networks, land uses, significance of infrastructure (e.g. military, power plans) and economic activities. The analysis in performed by a GIS application. The forcing variables are determined with the use of sub-indices related to coastal geomorphology, climate and wave variables and the socioeconomics of the coastal zone. The Greek coastline in

  10. Assessing the Vulnerability of Large Critical Infrastructure Using Fully-Coupled Blast Effects Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McMichael, L D; Noble, C R; Margraf, J D; Glascoe, L G

    2009-03-26

    Structural failures, such as the MacArthur Maze I-880 overpass in Oakland, California and the I-35 bridge in Minneapolis, Minnesota, are recent examples of our national infrastructure's fragility and serve as an important reminder of such infrastructure in our everyday lives. These two failures, as well as the World Trade Center's collapse and the levee failures in New Orleans, highlight the national importance of protecting our infrastructure as much as possible against acts of terrorism and natural hazards. This paper describes a process for evaluating the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to large blast loads using a fully-coupled finite element approach. A description of the finite element software and modeling technique is discussed along with the experimental validation of the numerical tools. We discuss how such an approach can be used for specific problems such as modeling the progressive collapse of a building.

  11. Next-generation Algorithms for Assessing Infrastructure Vulnerability and Optimizing System Resilience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burchett, Deon L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Chen, Richard Li-Yang [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Phillips, Cynthia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Richard, Jean-Philippe [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-05-01

    This report summarizes the work performed under the project project Next-Generation Algo- rithms for Assessing Infrastructure Vulnerability and Optimizing System Resilience. The goal of the project was to improve mathematical programming-based optimization technology for in- frastructure protection. In general, the owner of a network wishes to design a network a network that can perform well when certain transportation channels are inhibited (e.g. destroyed) by an adversary. These are typically bi-level problems where the owner designs a system, an adversary optimally attacks it, and then the owner can recover by optimally using the remaining network. This project funded three years of Deon Burchett's graduate research. Deon's graduate advisor, Professor Jean-Philippe Richard, and his Sandia advisors, Richard Chen and Cynthia Phillips, supported Deon on other funds or volunteer time. This report is, therefore. essentially a replication of the Ph.D. dissertation it funded [12] in a format required for project documentation. The thesis had some general polyhedral research. This is the study of the structure of the feasi- ble region of mathematical programs, such as integer programs. For example, an integer program optimizes a linear objective function subject to linear constraints, and (nonlinear) integrality con- straints on the variables. The feasible region without the integrality constraints is a convex polygon. Careful study of additional valid constraints can significantly improve computational performance. Here is the abstract from the dissertation: We perform a polyhedral study of a multi-commodity generalization of variable upper bound flow models. In particular, we establish some relations between facets of single- and multi- commodity models. We then introduce a new family of inequalities, which generalizes traditional flow cover inequalities to the multi-commodity context. We present encouraging numerical results. We also consider the directed

  12. Critical infrastructures risk and vulnerability assessment in transportation of dangerous goods transportation by road and rail

    CERN Document Server

    Vamanu, Bogdan I; Katina, Polinpapilinho F

    2016-01-01

    This book addresses a key issue in today’s society: the safer transport of dangerous goods, taking into account people, the environment and economics. In particular, it offers a potential approach to identifying the issues, developing the models, providing the methods and recommending the tools to address the risks and vulnerabilities involved. We believe this can only be achieved by assessing those risks in a comprehensive, quantifiable and integrated manner. Examining both rail and road transportation, the book is divided into three sections, covering: the mature and accepted (by both academia and practitioners) methodology of risk assessment; the vulnerability assessment – a novel approach proposed as a vital complement to risk; guidance and support to build the tools that make methods and equations to yield: the Decision Support Systems. Throughout the book, the authors do not endeavor to provide THE solution. Instead, the book offers insightful food for thought for students, researchers, practitioner...

  13. Facility Environmental Vulnerability Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    From mid-April through the end of June 2001, a Facility Environmental Vulnerability Assessment (FEVA) was performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The primary goal of this FEVA was to establish an environmental vulnerability baseline at ORNL that could be used to support the Laboratory planning process and place environmental vulnerabilities in perspective. The information developed during the FEVA was intended to provide the basis for management to initiate immediate, near-term, and long-term actions to respond to the identified vulnerabilities. It was expected that further evaluation of the vulnerabilities identified during the FEVA could be carried out to support a more quantitative characterization of the sources, evaluation of contaminant pathways, and definition of risks. The FEVA was modeled after the Battelle-supported response to the problems identified at the High Flux Beam Reactor at Brookhaven National Laboratory. This FEVA report satisfies Corrective Action 3A1 contained in the Corrective Action Plan in Response to Independent Review of the High Flux Isotope Reactor Tritium Leak at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, submitted to the Department of Energy (DOE) ORNL Site Office Manager on April 16, 2001. This assessment successfully achieved its primary goal as defined by Laboratory management. The assessment team was able to develop information about sources and pathway analyses although the following factors impacted the team's ability to provide additional quantitative information: the complexity and scope of the facilities, infrastructure, and programs; the significantly degraded physical condition of the facilities and infrastructure; the large number of known environmental vulnerabilities; the scope of legacy contamination issues [not currently addressed in the Environmental Management (EM) Program]; the lack of facility process and environmental pathway analysis performed by the accountable line management or facility owner; and poor

  14. Facility Environmental Vulnerability Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Hoesen, S.D.

    2001-07-09

    From mid-April through the end of June 2001, a Facility Environmental Vulnerability Assessment (FEVA) was performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The primary goal of this FEVA was to establish an environmental vulnerability baseline at ORNL that could be used to support the Laboratory planning process and place environmental vulnerabilities in perspective. The information developed during the FEVA was intended to provide the basis for management to initiate immediate, near-term, and long-term actions to respond to the identified vulnerabilities. It was expected that further evaluation of the vulnerabilities identified during the FEVA could be carried out to support a more quantitative characterization of the sources, evaluation of contaminant pathways, and definition of risks. The FEVA was modeled after the Battelle-supported response to the problems identified at the High Flux Beam Reactor at Brookhaven National Laboratory. This FEVA report satisfies Corrective Action 3A1 contained in the Corrective Action Plan in Response to Independent Review of the High Flux Isotope Reactor Tritium Leak at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, submitted to the Department of Energy (DOE) ORNL Site Office Manager on April 16, 2001. This assessment successfully achieved its primary goal as defined by Laboratory management. The assessment team was able to develop information about sources and pathway analyses although the following factors impacted the team's ability to provide additional quantitative information: the complexity and scope of the facilities, infrastructure, and programs; the significantly degraded physical condition of the facilities and infrastructure; the large number of known environmental vulnerabilities; the scope of legacy contamination issues [not currently addressed in the Environmental Management (EM) Program]; the lack of facility process and environmental pathway analysis performed by the accountable line management or facility owner; and

  15. Assessing Storm Vulnerabilities and Resilience Strategies: A Scenario-Method for Engaging Stakeholders of Public/Private Maritime Infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, A.; Burroughs, R.

    2014-12-01

    This presentation discusses a new method to assess vulnerability and resilience strategies for stakeholders of coastal-dependent transportation infrastructure, such as seaports. Much coastal infrastructure faces increasing risk to extreme events resulting from sea level rise and tropical storms. As seen after Hurricane Sandy, natural disasters result in economic costs, damages to the environment, and negative consequences on resident's quality of life. In the coming decades, tough decisions will need to be made about investment measures to protect critical infrastructure. Coastal communities will need to weigh the costs and benefits of a new storm barrier, for example, against those of retrofitting, elevating or simply doing nothing. These decisions require understanding the priorities and concerns of stakeholders. For ports, these include shippers, insurers, tenants, and ultimate consumers of the port cargo on a local and global scale, all of whom have a stake in addressing port vulnerabilities.Decision-makers in exposed coastal areas need tools to understand stakeholders concerns and perceptions of potential resilience strategies. For ports, they need answers to: 1) How will stakeholders be affected? 2) What strategies could be implemented to build resilience? 3) How effectively would the strategies mitigate stakeholder concerns? 4) What level of time and investment would strategies require? 5) Which stakeholders could/should take responsibility? Our stakeholder-based method provides answers to questions 1-3 and forms the basis for further work to address 4 and 5.Together with an expert group, we developed a pilot study for stakeholders of Rhode Island's critical energy port, the Port of Providence. Our method uses a plausible extreme storm scenario with localized visualizations and a portfolio of potential resilience strategies. We tailor a multi-criteria decision analysis tool and, through a series of workshops, we use the storm scenario, resilience strategies

  16. Dynamic functional modelling of vulnerability and interoperability of Critical Infrastructures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper describes a new integrated formalism for the dynamic functional modelling of vulnerability and interoperability of Critical Infrastructures at regional level. The model assesses the propagation of impacts in terms of disservice due to a wide set of threats. The disservice can be propagated within the same infrastructure or to other CIs by means of the interdependence model, which is able to represent physical, cybernetic, geographic as well as logical interdependencies and also the shift of the demand between two infrastructures that can provide the same or fully/partially replaceable service. The model is dynamic, since both the impact of the specific threat on a generic infrastructure node and the inoperability functions are time-dependent. A pilot study has been carried in the metropolitan area of the province of Milan, considering the Critical Infrastructures referred to the transportation system.

  17. Vulnerability of critical infrastructures : identifying critical nodes.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cox, Roger Gary; Robinson, David Gerald

    2004-06-01

    The objective of this research was the development of tools and techniques for the identification of critical nodes within critical infrastructures. These are nodes that, if disrupted through natural events or terrorist action, would cause the most widespread, immediate damage. This research focuses on one particular element of the national infrastructure: the bulk power system. Through the identification of critical elements and the quantification of the consequences of their failure, site-specific vulnerability analyses can be focused at those locations where additional security measures could be effectively implemented. In particular, with appropriate sizing and placement within the grid, distributed generation in the form of regional power parks may reduce or even prevent the impact of widespread network power outages. Even without additional security measures, increased awareness of sensitive power grid locations can provide a basis for more effective national, state and local emergency planning. A number of methods for identifying critical nodes were investigated: small-world (or network theory), polyhedral dynamics, and an artificial intelligence-based search method - particle swarm optimization. PSO was found to be the only viable approach and was applied to a variety of industry accepted test networks to validate the ability of the approach to identify sets of critical nodes. The approach was coded in a software package called Buzzard and integrated with a traditional power flow code. A number of industry accepted test networks were employed to validate the approach. The techniques (and software) are not unique to power grid network, but could be applied to a variety of complex, interacting infrastructures.

  18. An approach for modelling interdependent infrastructures in the context of vulnerability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Technical infrastructures of the society are becoming more and more interconnected and interdependent, i.e. the function of an infrastructure influences the function of other infrastructures. Disturbances in one infrastructure therefore often traverse to other dependent infrastructures and possibly even back to the infrastructure where the failure originated. It is becoming increasingly important to take these interdependencies into account when assessing the vulnerability of technical infrastructures. In the present paper, an approach for modelling interdependent technical infrastructures is proposed. The modelling approach considers structural properties, as employed in graph theory, as well as functional properties to increase its fidelity and usefulness. By modelling a fictional electrified railway network that consists of five systems and interdependencies between the systems, it is shown how the model can be employed in a vulnerability analysis. The model aims to capture both functional and geographic interdependencies. It is concluded that the proposed modelling approach is promising and suitable in the context of vulnerability analyses of interdependent systems.

  19. An approach for modelling interdependent infrastructures in the context of vulnerability analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johansson, Jonas, E-mail: jonas.johansson@iea.lth.s [Department of Industrial Electrical Engineering and Automation, Lund University, Box 118, SE-221 00 Lund (Sweden); Lund University Centre for Risk Analysis and Management (LUCRAM), Lund (Sweden); Hassel, Henrik, E-mail: henrik.hassel@brand.lth.s [Department of Fire Safety Engineering and Systems Safety, Lund University, Box 118, SE-221 00 Lund (Sweden); Lund University Centre for Risk Analysis and Management (LUCRAM), Lund (Sweden)

    2010-12-15

    Technical infrastructures of the society are becoming more and more interconnected and interdependent, i.e. the function of an infrastructure influences the function of other infrastructures. Disturbances in one infrastructure therefore often traverse to other dependent infrastructures and possibly even back to the infrastructure where the failure originated. It is becoming increasingly important to take these interdependencies into account when assessing the vulnerability of technical infrastructures. In the present paper, an approach for modelling interdependent technical infrastructures is proposed. The modelling approach considers structural properties, as employed in graph theory, as well as functional properties to increase its fidelity and usefulness. By modelling a fictional electrified railway network that consists of five systems and interdependencies between the systems, it is shown how the model can be employed in a vulnerability analysis. The model aims to capture both functional and geographic interdependencies. It is concluded that the proposed modelling approach is promising and suitable in the context of vulnerability analyses of interdependent systems.

  20. Vulnerability analysis of interdependent infrastructure systems: A methodological framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shuliang; Hong, Liu; Chen, Xueguang

    2012-06-01

    Infrastructure systems such as power and water supplies make up the cornerstone of modern society which is essential for the functioning of a society and its economy. They become more and more interconnected and interdependent with the development of scientific technology and social economy. Risk and vulnerability analysis of interdependent infrastructures for security considerations has become an important subject, and some achievements have been made in this area. Since different infrastructure systems have different structural and functional properties, there is no universal all-encompassing 'silver bullet solution' to the problem of analyzing the vulnerability associated with interdependent infrastructure systems. So a framework of analysis is required. This paper takes the power and water systems of a major city in China as an example and develops a framework for the analysis of the vulnerability of interdependent infrastructure systems. Four interface design strategies based on distance, betweenness, degree, and clustering coefficient are constructed. Then two types of vulnerability (long-term vulnerability and focused vulnerability) are illustrated and analyzed. Finally, a method for ranking critical components in interdependent infrastructures is given for protection purposes. It is concluded that the framework proposed here is useful for vulnerability analysis of interdependent systems and it will be helpful for the system owners to make better decisions on infrastructure design and protection.

  1. HEPA Filter Vulnerability Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    GUSTAVSON, R.D.

    2000-05-11

    This assessment of High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filter vulnerability was requested by the USDOE Office of River Protection (ORP) to satisfy a DOE-HQ directive to evaluate the effect of filter degradation on the facility authorization basis assumptions. Within the scope of this assessment are ventilation system HEPA filters that are classified as Safety-Class (SC) or Safety-Significant (SS) components that perform an accident mitigation function. The objective of the assessment is to verify whether HEPA filters that perform a safety function during an accident are likely to perform as intended to limit release of hazardous or radioactive materials, considering factors that could degrade the filters. Filter degradation factors considered include aging, wetting of filters, exposure to high temperature, exposure to corrosive or reactive chemicals, and exposure to radiation. Screening and evaluation criteria were developed by a site-wide group of HVAC engineers and HEPA filter experts from published empirical data. For River Protection Project (RPP) filters, the only degradation factor that exceeded the screening threshold was for filter aging. Subsequent evaluation of the effect of filter aging on the filter strength was conducted, and the results were compared with required performance to meet the conditions assumed in the RPP Authorization Basis (AB). It was found that the reduction in filter strength due to aging does not affect the filter performance requirements as specified in the AB. A portion of the HEPA filter vulnerability assessment is being conducted by the ORP and is not part of the scope of this study. The ORP is conducting an assessment of the existing policies and programs relating to maintenance, testing, and change-out of HEPA filters used for SC/SS service. This document presents the results of a HEPA filter vulnerability assessment conducted for the River protection project as requested by the DOE Office of River Protection.

  2. HEPA Filter Vulnerability Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This assessment of High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filter vulnerability was requested by the USDOE Office of River Protection (ORP) to satisfy a DOE-HQ directive to evaluate the effect of filter degradation on the facility authorization basis assumptions. Within the scope of this assessment are ventilation system HEPA filters that are classified as Safety-Class (SC) or Safety-Significant (SS) components that perform an accident mitigation function. The objective of the assessment is to verify whether HEPA filters that perform a safety function during an accident are likely to perform as intended to limit release of hazardous or radioactive materials, considering factors that could degrade the filters. Filter degradation factors considered include aging, wetting of filters, exposure to high temperature, exposure to corrosive or reactive chemicals, and exposure to radiation. Screening and evaluation criteria were developed by a site-wide group of HVAC engineers and HEPA filter experts from published empirical data. For River Protection Project (RPP) filters, the only degradation factor that exceeded the screening threshold was for filter aging. Subsequent evaluation of the effect of filter aging on the filter strength was conducted, and the results were compared with required performance to meet the conditions assumed in the RPP Authorization Basis (AB). It was found that the reduction in filter strength due to aging does not affect the filter performance requirements as specified in the AB. A portion of the HEPA filter vulnerability assessment is being conducted by the ORP and is not part of the scope of this study. The ORP is conducting an assessment of the existing policies and programs relating to maintenance, testing, and change-out of HEPA filters used for SC/SS service. This document presents the results of a HEPA filter vulnerability assessment conducted for the River protection project as requested by the DOE Office of River Protection

  3. 电网重要基础设施自然灾害脆弱性评价研究%Natural Disaster Vulnerability Assessment of Important Grid Infrastructure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    门永生; 朱朝阳; 于振; 吴睦远; 何真珍

    2014-01-01

    Important grid infrastructures exhibit significant vulnerability in case of natural disasters.Accord-ing to the characteristics of impact of typical natural disasters on the important grid facilities,a vulnerability evalua-tion index system,including 3 levels of static and dynamic and as a total of 40 index,is built for important grid in-frastructure based on 8 kinds of typical natural disasters.Based on the static index,the index evaluation method is proposed,the value range of each index is determined,the evaluation grade standards are determined,and the e-valuation process and calculation rules of the composite index are given.It is shown in example analysis that the natural disaster vulnerability index of a hub substation,an important infrastructure of a grid,is 155,of medium vulnerability grade,and the lightning vulnerability index is the highest as 72.The evaluation method not only can be used in comparative sequencing of natural disaster vulnerability of similar important grid infrastructures,and can also be find out the weak links of the infrastructures through the evaluation,therefore targeted preventive measures could be taken accordingly to improve the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation and guarantee safe operation of the grid system.%电网重要基础设施对自然灾害表现出较为显著的脆弱性。针对典型自然灾害对电网重要设施影响的特征,构建了基于8类典型自然灾害的电网重要基础设施脆弱性评价指标体系,包括静态和动态3级共40个指标。针对静态指标提出了对电网重要基础设施进行评价的指数评价方法,确定各指数的取值范围,划分评价等级标准,给出了评价流程及综合指数的计算规则。实例分析表明某电网重要基础设施---枢纽变电站自然灾害脆弱性综合指数为155,脆弱性等级为中等,其中雷击脆弱性指数最高为72。基于该评价方法不仅可用于同类电网重要基础设施自

  4. Vulnerability Assessments in Ethical Hacking

    OpenAIRE

    Ashiqur Rahman; Md. SarwarAlam Rasel; Asaduzzaman Noman; Shakh Md. Alimuzjaman Alim

    2016-01-01

    Ethical hackers use the same methods and techniques to test and bypass a system's defenses as their less-principled counterparts, but rather than taking advantage of any vulnerabilities found, they document them and provide actionable advice on how to fix them so the organization can improve its overall security. The purpose of ethical hacking is to evaluate the security of a network or system's infrastructure. It entails finding and attempting to exploit any vulnerabilities to de...

  5. Preliminary findings of the Government of Yukon Infrastructure Vulnerability to Permafrost Degradation Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laxton, S. C.

    2010-12-01

    The damage of vertical infrastructure attributable to permafrost degradation results in high costs for building renovation and replacement. In order to address this problem, a joint initiative between the Yukon Geological Survey and the Government of Yukon Department Highways and Public Works has been implemented with the goal to assess the vulnerability of Yukon government vertical infrastructure to future permafrost degradation. The primary components of this project include the compilation of permafrost related data throughout the territory and the compilation of data pertaining to Yukon Government vertical infrastructure. These data are used to create an infrastructure vulnerability assessment which can then be used in conjunction with regional climate change models to assist with infrastructure related planning and adaptation decision making. Preliminary geophysical and borehole permafrost case study investigations conducted at compromised infrastructure in the City of Dawson, and the community of Ross River, Yukon, will provide baseline conditions with which to compare future permafrost changes. All finding from this project, including the data pertaining to permafrost in the Yukon, will be made publicly available on the Yukon Geological Survey website.

  6. Low carbon technology performance vs infrastructure vulnerability: analysis through the local and global properties space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, David A; Purnell, Phil; Roelich, Katy; Busch, Jonathan; Steinberger, Julia K

    2014-11-01

    Renewable energy technologies, necessary for low-carbon infrastructure networks, are being adopted to help reduce fossil fuel dependence and meet carbon mitigation targets. The evolution of these technologies has progressed based on the enhancement of technology-specific performance criteria, without explicitly considering the wider system (global) impacts. This paper presents a methodology for simultaneously assessing local (technology) and global (infrastructure) performance, allowing key technological interventions to be evaluated with respect to their effect on the vulnerability of wider infrastructure systems. We use exposure of low carbon infrastructure to critical material supply disruption (criticality) to demonstrate the methodology. A series of local performance changes are analyzed; and by extension of this approach, a method for assessing the combined criticality of multiple materials for one specific technology is proposed. Via a case study of wind turbines at both the material (magnets) and technology (turbine generators) levels, we demonstrate that analysis of a given intervention at different levels can lead to differing conclusions regarding the effect on vulnerability. Infrastructure design decisions should take a systemic approach; without these multilevel considerations, strategic goals aimed to help meet low-carbon targets, that is, through long-term infrastructure transitions, could be significantly jeopardized. PMID:25296295

  7. Managing a network vulnerability assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R; Blackley, John A

    2003-01-01

    Managing a Network Vulnerability Assessment provides a formal framework for finding and eliminating network security threats, ensuring that no vulnerabilities are overlooked. This thorough overview focuses on the steps necessary to successfully manage an assessment, including the development of a scope statement, the understanding and proper use of assessment methodology, the creation of an expert assessment team, and the production of a valuable response report. The book also details what commercial, freeware, and shareware tools are available, how they work, and how to use them.

  8. Karst groundwaters vulnerability assessment methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Vlaicu

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available A major socio-economic and scientific issue is represented by karst hydrostructures vulnerability mapping, which qualitatively and quantitatively highlights their exposure degree. Two research trends have been developed, one taking into account the environment features exclusively – the aquifer and protective cover type, permeability, aquifer depth, recharge rate, etc. (intrinsic vulnerability, the other focused on the types and quantities of pollutants (specific vulnerability. MAGIERA (2000 described and compared 69 methods, grouped in 5 types: hydrogeological complex and setting methods, index models and analogical relations (AF, AVI, Ekv, ΔhT’, parametric system models (DRASTIC, DWSAP, SINTACS, EPPNA, GOD, EPIK, REKS, PI, GSI, GLA, mathematical models (VULK, FAVA and statistical methods (CALVUL. However, it is also possible to classify the methods on the basis of other criteria, such as scale (local, regional, national, aim (land use planning, protection zoning, site assessment and target (source or resource vulnerability.

  9. Assessing Terrorist Motivations for Attacking Critical Infrastructure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ackerman, G; Abhayaratne, P; Bale, J; Bhattacharjee, A; Blair, C; Hansell, L; Jayne, A; Kosal, M; Lucas, S; Moran, K; Seroki, L; Vadlamudi, S

    2006-12-04

    Certain types of infrastructure--critical infrastructure (CI)--play vital roles in underpinning our economy, security and way of life. These complex and often interconnected systems have become so ubiquitous and essential to day-to-day life that they are easily taken for granted. Often it is only when the important services provided by such infrastructure are interrupted--when we lose easy access to electricity, health care, telecommunications, transportation or water, for example--that we are conscious of our great dependence on these networks and of the vulnerabilities that stem from such dependence. Unfortunately, it must be assumed that many terrorists are all too aware that CI facilities pose high-value targets that, if successfully attacked, have the potential to dramatically disrupt the normal rhythm of society, cause public fear and intimidation, and generate significant publicity. Indeed, revelations emerging at the time of this writing about Al Qaida's efforts to prepare for possible attacks on major financial facilities in New York, New Jersey, and the District of Columbia remind us just how real and immediate such threats to CI may be. Simply being aware that our nation's critical infrastructure presents terrorists with a plethora of targets, however, does little to mitigate the dangers of CI attacks. In order to prevent and preempt such terrorist acts, better understanding of the threats and vulnerabilities relating to critical infrastructure is required. The Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) presents this document as both a contribution to the understanding of such threats and an initial effort at ''operationalizing'' its findings for use by analysts who work on issues of critical infrastructure protection. Specifically, this study focuses on a subsidiary aspect of CI threat assessment that has thus far remained largely unaddressed by contemporary terrorism research: the motivations and related factors that

  10. Vulnerability Assessments in Ethical Hacking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashiqur Rahman ,

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Ethical hackers use the same methods and techniques to test and bypass a system's defenses as their less-principled counterparts, but rather than taking advantage of any vulnerabilities found, they document them and provide actionable advice on how to fix them so the organization can improve its overall security. The purpose of ethical hacking is to evaluate the security of a network or system's infrastructure. It entails finding and attempting to exploit any vulnerabilities to determine whether unauthorized access or other malicious activities are possible. Vulnerabilities tend to be found in poor or improper system configuration, known and unknown hardware or software flaws, and operational weaknesses in process or technical countermeasures. One of the first examples of ethical hacking occurred in the 1970s, when the United States government used groups of experts called "red teams" to hack its own computer systems. It has become a sizable sub-industry within the information security market and has expanded to also cover the physical and human elements of an organization's defenses. A successful test doesn't necessarily mean a network or system is 100% secure, but it should be able to withstand automated attacks and unskilled hackers.

  11. Assessing European wild fire vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oehler, F.; Oliveira, S.; Barredo, J. I.; Camia, A.; Ayanz, J. San Miguel; Pettenella, D.; Mavsar, R.

    2012-04-01

    Wild fire vulnerability is a measure of potential socio-economic damage caused by a fire in a specific area. As such it is an important component of long-term fire risk management, helping policy-makers take informed decisions about adequate expenditures for fire prevention and suppression, and to target those regions at highest risk. This paper presents a first approach to assess wild fire vulnerability at the European level. A conservative approach was chosen that assesses the cost of restoring the previous land cover after a potential fire. Based on the CORINE Land Cover, a restoration cost was established for each land cover class at country level, and an average restoration time was assigned according to the recovery capacity of the land cover. The damage caused by fire was then assessed by discounting the cost of restoring the previous land cover over the restoration period. Three different vulnerability scenarios were considered assuming low, medium and high fire severity causing different levels of damage. Over Europe, the potential damage of wild land fires ranges from 10 - 13, 732 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for low fire severity, 32 - 45,772 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for medium fire severity and 54 - 77,812 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for high fire severity. The least vulnerable are natural grasslands, moors and heathland and sclerophyllous vegetation, while the highest cost occurs for restoring broad-leaved forest. Preliminary validation comparing these estimates with official damage assessments for past fires shows reasonable results. The restoration cost approach allows for a straightforward, data extensive assessment of fire vulnerability at European level. A disadvantage is the inherent simplification of the evaluation procedure with the underestimation of non-markets goods and services. Thus, a second approach has been developed, valuing individual wild land goods and services and assessing their annual flow which is lost for a certain period of time in case of a fire event. However

  12. Identifying and Addressing Infrastructure Vulnerabilities Under Climate Change in Data-Scarce Regions: the Role of Conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shortridge, J.; Guikema, S.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have dramatic impacts on built infrastructure, particularly in the water resources sector where infrastructure tends to have long lifespans and performance is highly sensitive to climate conditions. However, adapting to water resources infrastructure to climate change is challenging due to the considerable uncertainty surrounding projections of future hydrologic conditions. This has prompted the development of a number of approaches aimed at supporting planning under "deep-uncertainty" which cannot be represented probabilistically. One such method is robust decision making (RDM), which uses simulation models to assess how systems perform over a wide range of future scenarios and identify vulnerable scenarios where system performance is unacceptable. With the Lake Tana basin in Ethiopia as a case study, we use an RDM analysis to assess the vulnerability of planned irrigation infrastructure to climate change and environmental uncertainties related to data limitations. We find that planned infrastructure is vulnerable not only to climate change, but also to poorly characterized environmental conditions today. This suggests areas for research that could provide important insights into the long-term sustainability and effectiveness of the planned projects. Additionally, we evaluate the degree to which methods such as irrigation efficiency and upstream land conservation can improve the long-term performance of the proposed infrastructure. In doing so, we demonstrate how robust decision frameworks can provide decision support in data-scarce regions where more complex modeling and analysis may be impractical.

  13. Assessing Terrorist Motivations for Attacking Critical Infrastructure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ackerman, G; Abhayaratne, P; Bale, J; Bhattacharjee, A; Blair, C; Hansell, L; Jayne, A; Kosal, M; Lucas, S; Moran, K; Seroki, L; Vadlamudi, S

    2006-12-04

    Certain types of infrastructure--critical infrastructure (CI)--play vital roles in underpinning our economy, security and way of life. These complex and often interconnected systems have become so ubiquitous and essential to day-to-day life that they are easily taken for granted. Often it is only when the important services provided by such infrastructure are interrupted--when we lose easy access to electricity, health care, telecommunications, transportation or water, for example--that we are conscious of our great dependence on these networks and of the vulnerabilities that stem from such dependence. Unfortunately, it must be assumed that many terrorists are all too aware that CI facilities pose high-value targets that, if successfully attacked, have the potential to dramatically disrupt the normal rhythm of society, cause public fear and intimidation, and generate significant publicity. Indeed, revelations emerging at the time of this writing about Al Qaida's efforts to prepare for possible attacks on major financial facilities in New York, New Jersey, and the District of Columbia remind us just how real and immediate such threats to CI may be. Simply being aware that our nation's critical infrastructure presents terrorists with a plethora of targets, however, does little to mitigate the dangers of CI attacks. In order to prevent and preempt such terrorist acts, better understanding of the threats and vulnerabilities relating to critical infrastructure is required. The Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) presents this document as both a contribution to the understanding of such threats and an initial effort at ''operationalizing'' its findings for use by analysts who work on issues of critical infrastructure protection. Specifically, this study focuses on a subsidiary aspect of CI threat assessment that has thus far remained largely unaddressed by contemporary terrorism research: the motivations and related factors that

  14. Assessing the Security Vulnerabilities of Correctional Facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrison, G.S.; Spencer, D.S.

    1998-10-27

    The National Institute of Justice has tasked their Satellite Facility at Sandia National Laboratories and their Southeast Regional Technology Center in Charleston, South Carolina to devise new procedures and tools for helping correctional facilities to assess their security vulnerabilities. Thus, a team is visiting selected correctional facilities and performing vulnerability assessments. A vulnerability assessment helps to identi~ the easiest paths for inmate escape, for introduction of contraband such as drugs or weapons, for unexpected intrusion fi-om outside of the facility, and for the perpetration of violent acts on other inmates and correctional employees, In addition, the vulnerability assessment helps to quantify the security risks for the facility. From these initial assessments will come better procedures for performing vulnerability assessments in general at other correctional facilities, as well as the development of tools to assist with the performance of such vulnerability assessments.

  15. Developing new methodology for nuclear power plants vulnerability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Research highlights: → Paper presents new methodology for vulnerability assessment of nuclear power plants. → First universal quantitative risks assessment model for terrorist attack on a NPPs. → New model enhance security, reliability and safe operation of all energy infrastructure. → Significant research benefits: increased NPPs security, reliability and availability. → Useful new tool for PRA application to evaluation of terrorist threats on NPPs. - Abstract: The fundamental aim of an efficient regulatory emergency preparedness and response system is to provide sustained emergency readiness and to prevent emergency situations and accidents. But when an event occurs, the regulatory mission is to mitigate consequences and to protect people and the environment against nuclear and radiological damage. The regulatory emergency response system, which would be activated in the case of a nuclear and/or radiological emergency and release of radioactivity to the environment, is an important element of a comprehensive national regulatory system of nuclear and radiation safety. In the past, national emergency systems explicitly did not include vulnerability assessments of the critical nuclear infrastructure as an important part of a comprehensive preparedness framework. But after the huge terrorist attack on 11/09/2001, decision-makers became aware that critical nuclear infrastructure could also be an attractive target to terrorism, with the purpose of using the physical and radioactive properties of the nuclear material to cause mass casualties, property damage, and detrimental economic and/or environmental impacts. The necessity to evaluate critical nuclear infrastructure vulnerability to threats like human errors, terrorist attacks and natural disasters, as well as preparation of emergency response plans with estimation of optimized costs, are of vital importance for assurance of safe nuclear facilities operation and national security. In this paper presented

  16. Risk assessment methodologies for Critical Infrastructure Protection. Part I: A state of the art

    OpenAIRE

    Giannopoulos, Georgios; FILIPPINI ROBERTO; SCHIMMER Muriel

    2012-01-01

    Effective risk assessment methodologies are the cornerstone of a successful Critical Infrastructure Protection program. The extensive number of risk assessment methodologies for critical infrastructures clearly supports this argument. Risk assessment is indispensable in order to identify threats, assess vulnerabilities and evaluate the impact on assets, infrastructures or systems taking into account the probability of the occurrence of these threats. This is a critical element that differenti...

  17. Integrating socio-economic and infrastructural dimension to reveal hazard vulnerability of coastal districts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazumdar, Jublee; Paul, Saikat

    2015-04-01

    Losses of life and property due to natural hazards have intensified in the past decade, motivating an alteration of disaster management away from simple post event resettlement and rehabilitation. The degree of exposure to hazard for a homogeneous population is not entirely reliant upon nearness to the source of hazard event. Socio-economic factors and infrastructural capability play an important role in determining the vulnerability of a place. This study investigates the vulnerability of eastern coastal states of India from tropical cyclones. The record of past hundred years shows that the physical vulnerability of eastern coastal states is four times as compared to the western coastal states in terms of frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. Nevertheless, these physical factors played an imperative role in determining the vulnerability of eastern coast. However, the socio-economic and infrastructural factors influence the risk of exposure exponentially. Inclusion of these indicators would provide better insight regarding the preparedness and resilience of settlements to hazard events. In this regard, the present study is an effort to develop an Integrated Vulnerability Model (IVM) based on socio-economic and infrastructural factors for the districts of eastern coastal states of India. A method is proposed for quantifying the socio-economic and infrastructural vulnerability to tropical cyclone in these districts. The variables included in the study are extracted from Census of India, 2011 at district level administrative unit. In the analysis, a large number of variables are reduced to a smaller number of factors by using principal component analysis that represents the socio-economic and infrastructure vulnerability to tropical cyclone. Subsequently, the factor scores in socio-economic Vulnerability Index (SeVI) and Infrastructure Vulnerability Index (InVI) are standardized from 0 to 1, indicating the range from low to high vulnerability. The factor

  18. Utilizing Semantic Big Data for realizing a National-scale Infrastructure Vulnerability Analysis System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chinthavali, Supriya [ORNL; Shankar, Mallikarjun [ORNL

    2016-01-01

    Critical Infrastructure systems(CIs) such as energy, water, transportation and communication are highly interconnected and mutually dependent in complex ways. Robust modeling of CIs interconnections is crucial to identify vulnerabilities in the CIs. We present here a national-scale Infrastructure Vulnerability Analysis System (IVAS) vision leveraging Se- mantic Big Data (SBD) tools, Big Data, and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) tools. We survey existing ap- proaches on vulnerability analysis of critical infrastructures and discuss relevant systems and tools aligned with our vi- sion. Next, we present a generic system architecture and discuss challenges including: (1) Constructing and manag- ing a CI network-of-networks graph, (2) Performing analytic operations at scale, and (3) Interactive visualization of ana- lytic output to generate meaningful insights. We argue that this architecture acts as a baseline to realize a national-scale network based vulnerability analysis system.

  19. Chemical and radiological vulnerability assessment in urban areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stojanović Božidar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Cities and towns are faced with various types of threat from the extraordinary events involving chemical and radiological materials as exemplified by major chemical accidents, radiological incidents, fires, explosions, traffic accidents, terrorist attacks, etc. On the other hand, many sensitive or vulnerable assets exist within cities, such as: settlements, infrastructures, hospitals, schools, churches, businesses, government, and others. Besides emergency planning, the land use planning also represents an important tool for prevention or reduction of damages on people and other assets due to unwanted events. This paper considers development of method for inclusion vulnerability assessment in land use planning with objective to assess and limit the consequences in cities of likely accidents involving hazardous materials. We made preliminary assessment of criticality and vulnerability of the assets within Belgrade city area in respect to chemical sites and transportation roads that can be exposed to chemical accidents, or terrorist attacks.

  20. Critical infrastructure systems of systems assessment methodology.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sholander, Peter E.; Darby, John L.; Phelan, James M.; Smith, Bryan; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Walter, Andrew; Varnado, G. Bruce; Depoy, Jennifer Mae

    2006-10-01

    Assessing the risk of malevolent attacks against large-scale critical infrastructures requires modifications to existing methodologies that separately consider physical security and cyber security. This research has developed a risk assessment methodology that explicitly accounts for both physical and cyber security, while preserving the traditional security paradigm of detect, delay, and respond. This methodology also accounts for the condition that a facility may be able to recover from or mitigate the impact of a successful attack before serious consequences occur. The methodology uses evidence-based techniques (which are a generalization of probability theory) to evaluate the security posture of the cyber protection systems. Cyber threats are compared against cyber security posture using a category-based approach nested within a path-based analysis to determine the most vulnerable cyber attack path. The methodology summarizes the impact of a blended cyber/physical adversary attack in a conditional risk estimate where the consequence term is scaled by a ''willingness to pay'' avoidance approach.

  1. Assessment of human-natural system characteristics influencing global freshwater supply vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padowski, Julie C.; Gorelick, Steven M.; Thompson, Barton H.; Rozelle, Scott; Fendorf, Scott

    2015-10-01

    Global freshwater vulnerability is a product of environmental and human dimensions, however, it is rarely assessed as such. Our approach identifies freshwater vulnerability using four broad categories: endowment, demand, infrastructure, and institutions, to capture impacts on natural and managed water systems within the coupled human-hydrologic environment. These categories are represented by 19 different endogenous and exogenous characteristics affecting water supply vulnerability. By evaluating 119 lower per capita income countries (countries suffer deficiencies in all four categories. Of these highly vulnerable countries, Jordan is the most vulnerable, reporting the greatest number of characteristics (5 of 19) at critical vulnerability levels, with Yemen and Djibouti nearly as vulnerable. Surprising similarities in vulnerability were also found among geographically disparate nations such as Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and Guatemala. Determining shared patterns of freshwater vulnerability provides insights into why water supply vulnerabilities are manifested in human-water systems at the national scale.

  2. Assessing vulnerability of urban African communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson Nyed, Patrik; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie; Herslund, Lise Byskov

    2014-01-01

    East African cities are in the process of assessing their vulnerabilities to climate change, but face difficulties in capturing the complexity of the various facets of vulnerability. This holistic approach, captures four different dimensions of vulnerability to flooding - Assets, Institutions......, Attitudes and the Physical environment, with Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, as a case city. The methodology is actively involving the expertise of the stakeholders, and uses GIS to analyze and compile the data. The final output is presented as a comprehensible map, delineating the varying vulnerability to...

  3. Spatial risk assessment for critical network infrastructure using sensitivity analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Michael M·derl; Wolfgang Rauch

    2011-01-01

    The presented spatial risk assessment method allows for managing critical network infrastructure in urban areas under abnormal and future conditions caused e.g.,by terrorist attacks,infrastructure deterioration or climate change.For the spatial risk assessment,vulnerability maps for critical network infrastructure are merged with hazard maps for an interfering process.Vulnerability maps are generated using a spatial sensitivity analysis of network transport models to evaluate performance decrease under investigated thread scenarios.Thereby parameters are varied according to the specific impact of a particular threat scenario.Hazard maps are generated with a geographical information system using raster data of the same threat scenario derived from structured interviews and cluster analysis of events in the past.The application of the spatial risk assessment is exemplified by means of a case study for a water supply system,but the principal concept is applicable likewise to other critical network infrastructure.The aim of the approach is to help decision makers in choosing zones for preventive measures.

  4. Vulnerability of electricity transmission infrastructure to natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komendantova, Nadejda

    2016-04-01

    Electricity transmission system is a very complex system, which consists of several elements, such as overhead lines, substations and transformers, covers wide areas, is interconnected with several networks with numerous inter-dependencies. This highly integrated system is exposed to several hazards, leading to interruption of power supply. Natural hazards, such as an increased frequency of extreme weather events, including storms, icing, wet snow deposits, lighting, floods, avalanches, rock falls and landslides or changing air temperature have effects on transmission and lead to destruction of this infrastructure, which is also critical for society as it guarantees functioning of vital for society services. The reliability of critical electricity transmission infrastructure depends on its ability to ensure normal operation, to limit number of incidents and to avoid major incidents and to limit consequences of major incidents. The concept of reliability is closely connected with the concept of resilience, which is understood, in general, as the ability of a system to react and recover from anticipated disturbances and events. In regards to electricity transmission resilience is the ability of the power system to adapt, self-organize and recover or achieve the level even higher than those before the shock. This paper reviews three major natural hazards disasters, which resulted in significant blackouts in Europe. The first one is the 2003 blackout in Italy, which was caused by flash-over from trees. The second one is the 2003 blackout in Sweden, which was caused by rainstorms. The third one is the 2005 blackout in Germany, which was caused by wet snow. The inter-comparative analysis of these events allowed us to develop recommendations on electricity transmission network resilience.

  5. Assessing human vulnerability: Daytime residential distribution as a vulnerability indicator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gokesch, Karin; Promper, Catrin; Papathoma-Köhle, Maria; Glade, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazard risk management is based on detailed information on potential impacts of natural hazards. Especially concerning fast onset hazards such as flash floods, earthquakes but also debris flows and landslides, knowing potential hotspots of impact to both, assets and human lives is essential. This information is important for emergency management and decision making in the response phase of the disaster management cycle. Emergency managers are in need of information regarding not only the number of humans being potentially affected but also the respective vulnerability of the group affected based on characteristics such as age, income, health condition, mobility, etc. regarding a certain hazard. The analysis presented focuses on the distribution of the population, assuming a certain pattern of people in a certain radius of action. The method applied is based on a regular pattern of movement of different groups of people and a pattern of presence in certain units, e.g. schools, businesses or residential buildings. The distribution is calculated on a minimum of available data including the average household size, as well as information on building types. The study area is located in the Southwest of Lower Austria, Austria. The city of Waidhofen/Ybbs can be regarded as a regional center providing basic infrastructure, shops and schools. The high concentration of buildings combining shops and residential units leads to a high damage potential throughout the whole study area. The presented results indicate the population distribution within the study area on an average working day. It is clear that explicitly high numbers of people are located in specific buildings (e.g. schools and hospitals) which also include highly vulnerable groups especially to fast onset hazards. The results provide emergency services with the information that they need in order to intervene directly where large numbers of victims or people that need to be evacuated are located. In this

  6. Interdependency control : compensation strategies for the inherent vulnerability of critical infrastructure networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Today's increasingly interacting national critical infrastructures (NCIs) can tolerate most stochastic local disturbances. However, they are extremely fragile under global disturbances, as the latter may either push the whole system into a critical state or reveal many unexpected hidden interdependencies, inducing or triggering cascading failures among all possible layers. This robust yet fragile duality is an inherent vulnerability of modern infrastructures. It is therefore expected that weather-related disasters will be more frequent under a changing climate. This paper proposed an interdependency control strategy (ICS) that would maintain the survival of the most critical services, and compensate for this inherent vulnerability during emergency states. The paper also proposed a generalized adjacency matrix (GAM) to represent the physical interdependencies intra/inter of various infrastructure networks. The vulnerable section in the network can be identified, based on computed results of GAM, number of islands in the network, and influence domain(s) of each component. These features render ICS more effective and convincing. Last, the paper proposed a survivability index for isolated sub-networks and described relevant measures for improving this index during the four phases of emergency management. It was concluded that the proposed strategy is an effective means to reduce the inherent vulnerability and increase the resiliency of these critical infrastructures networks. 20 refs., 5 figs

  7. Concepts to Analyze the Vulnerability of Critical Infrastructures - Taking into account Cybernetics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric Petit

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Critical Infrastructures (CIs are complex systems. For their operations, these infrastructures are increasingly using Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA systems. Management practices are therefore highly dependent on the cyber tools, but also on the data needed to make these tools work. Therefore, CIs are greatly vulnerable to degradation of data. In this context, this paper aims at presenting the fundamentals of a method for analyzing the vulnerabilities of CIs towards the use of cyber data. By characterizing cyber vulnerability of CIs, it will be possible to improve the resilience of these networks and to foster a proactive approach to risk management not only by considering cybernetics from a cyber-attack point of view but also by considering the consequences of the use of corrupted data.

  8. Vulnerability assessment at a national level in Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsereteli, N.; Arabidze, V.; Varazanashvili, O.; Gugeshashvili, T.

    2012-04-01

    Vulnerability assessment at a national level in Georgia Nino Tsereteli, Vakhtang Arabidze, Otar Varazanashvili, Tengiz Gugeshashvili The risk always exists when cities are built on. Population growth in cities and urbanization in natural hazard-prone zones leads to infrastructure expansion. The goal of the society is to construct natural hazards resistant infrastructure and minimize the expected losses. This is a complicated task as there is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard and vulnerability. Assessment of vulnerability is vital in risk analysis, as vulnerability is defined in many different ways. Work presented here mostly deals with assessment of infrastructure's and population vulnerability at national level in Georgia. This work was initiated by NATO SFP project "seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment for Southern Caucasus - Eastern Turkey Energy Corridors" and the two work packages WP4 (seismic risk) and WP5 (city scenarios) of risk module of EMME (Earthquake Model of the Middle East Region) project. First step was creation databases (inventory) of elements at risk in GIS. Element at risk were the buildings, population, pipelines. The inventories was studied and Created in GIS for the following categories: Building material, number of stories, number of entrances, condition of building, building period. For pipelines pipe tipe (continous or segmented), material, pipe diameter. Very important is to estimate the initial cost of building for assessment of economic losses. From this purpose the attempt was done and the algorithm of this estimation were prepared taking into account obtained the inventory. Build quality, reliability and durability are of special importance to corresponding state agencies and include different aesthetic, engineering, practical, social, technological and economical aspects. The necessity that all of these aspects satisfy existing normative requirements becomes evident as the building and structures come into exploitation

  9. Determining Vulnerability Importance in Environmental Impact Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The concept of vulnerability has been used to describe the susceptibility of physical, biotic, and social systems to harm or hazard. In this sense, it is a tool that reduces the uncertainties of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) since it does not depend exclusively on the value assessments of the evaluator, but rather is based on the environmental state indicators of the site where the projects or activities are being carried out. The concept of vulnerability thus reduces the possibility that evaluators will subjectively interpret results, and be influenced by outside interests and pressures during projects. However, up until now, EIA has been hindered by a lack of effective methods. This research study analyzes the concept of vulnerability, defines Vulnerability Importance and proposes its inclusion in qualitative EIA methodology. The method used to quantify Vulnerability Importance is based on a set of environmental factors and indicators that provide a comprehensive overview of the environmental state. The results obtained in Colombia highlight the usefulness and objectivity of this method since there is a direct relation between this value and the environmental state of the departments analyzed. - Research Highlights: ► The concept of vulnerability could be considered defining Vulnerability Importance included in qualitative EIA methodology. ► The use of the concept of environmental vulnerability could reduce the subjectivity of qualitative methods of EIA. ► A method to quantify the Vulnerability Importance proposed provides a comprehensive overview of the environmental state. ► Results in Colombia highlight the usefulness and objectivity of this method.

  10. IT infrastructure assessment approach in enterprise

    OpenAIRE

    Kalu, Isaac

    2012-01-01

    In today’s business operations, there is an increase in the use of information technology to deliver on the constantly changing customer demands resulting in the high investment in IT infrastructure within enterprises in order to gain competitive advantage, across industries. Nevertheless, these investments call for the need of IT transformation projects and assessments in existing infrastructures to evaluate its entirety before initiating any changes. In this thesis, the practice and theo...

  11. European risk assessment methodology for critical infrastructures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaver, M.H.A.; Luiijf, H.A.M.; Nieuwenhuijs, A.H.; Cavenne, F.; Ulisse, A.; Bridegeman, G.

    2008-01-01

    Most risk assessment methodologies aim at the risk at the level of an individual organization or company. The European Union commissioned a study to define the elements for a uniform and scalable risk assessment methodology which takes into account critical infrastructure dependencies across organiz

  12. Methodology for prioritizing cyber-vulnerable critical infrastructure equipment and mitigation strategies.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Lon Andrew; Stinebaugh, Jennifer A.

    2010-04-01

    The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), National Cyber Security Division (NSCD), Control Systems Security Program (CSSP), contracted Sandia National Laboratories to develop a generic methodology for prioritizing cyber-vulnerable, critical infrastructure assets and the development of mitigation strategies for their loss or compromise. The initial project has been divided into three discrete deliverables: (1) A generic methodology report suitable to all Critical Infrastructure and Key Resource (CIKR) Sectors (this report); (2) a sector-specific report for Electrical Power Distribution; and (3) a sector-specific report for the water sector, including generation, water treatment, and wastewater systems. Specific reports for the water and electric sectors are available from Sandia National Laboratories.

  13. An All-Hazard Approach for the Vulnerability Analysis of Critical Infrastructures

    OpenAIRE

    Zio, Enrico; Piccinelli, Roberta; Sansavini, Giovanni

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, a framework is proposed for the All-HAZard ANalysis (A-HAZAN) of Critical In-frastructures (CIs). Starting from the identification of the task of each component in the infrastructure, we use tabular procedures to organize the information on the susceptibility to attacks, to single and cascading fail-ures. All variables and states are identified that may impact on the component's role as a possible source of vulnerability within the CI and towards interdependent CIs. This is a s...

  14. WEB SECURITY VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND RECOVERY MACHANISAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.Madhusudhanan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays web applications have critical logical holes (bug affecting its security, Thus it makes application as vulnerable and easy to attack by hackers and organized crime. In order to prevent these security problems from occurrence of its maximum importance to understand the typical software faults. This paper contributes the knowledge of widely spread two critical web applications by presenting a field study on most of vulnerabilities like SQL Injection and XSS. By analyzing the security patches of source code which are widely used in web applications written in weak and strong typed languages. In order to understand the way in which these vulnerabilities are really exploited by hackers, and also provides an analysis of the source code of the scripts used to attack them. With the outcomes of this result and its study can be used to train code inspectors and software developers in the detection of such software faults, and also with that outcomes research for realistic vulnerability and attackers can be used to assess security mechanisms, like vulnerability scanners, intrusion detection systems, and static code analyzers. By using various number of software testing techniques tools various level of vulnerability are identified and recovery mechanisms were suggested.

  15. Assessing tsunami vulnerability, an example from Herakleio, Crete

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papathoma, M.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Zong, Y.; Smith, D.

    Recent tsunami have caused massive loss of life, destruction of coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activity. To date, tsunami hazard studies have concentrated on determining the frequency and magnitude of events and in the production of simplistic flood maps. In general, such maps appear to have assumed a uniform vulnerability of population, infrastructure and business. In reality however, a complex set of factors interact to produce a pattern of vulnerability that varies spatially and temporally. A new vulnerability assessment approach is described, that incorporates multiple factors (e.g. parameters relating to the natural and built environments and socio-demographics) that contribute to tsunami vulnerability. The new methodology is applied on a coastal segment in Greece and, in particular, in Crete, westof the city of Herakleio. The results are presented within a Geographic Information System (GIS). The application of GIS ensures the approach is novel for tsunami studies, since it permits interrogation of the primary database by several different end-users. For example, the GIS may be used: (1) to determine immediate post-tsunami disaster response needs by the emergency services; (2) to preplan tsunami mitigation measures by disaster planners; (3) as a tool for local planning by the municipal authorities or; (4) as a basis for catastrophe modelling by insurance companies. We show that population density varies markedly with the time of the year and that 30% of buildings within the inundation zone are only single story thus increasing the vulnerability of their occupants. Within the high inundation depth zone, 11% of buildings are identified as in need of reinforcement and this figure rises to 50% within the medium inundation depth zone. 10% of businesses are located within the high inundation depth zone and these may need to consider their level of insurance cover to protect against primary building damage, contents loss and business interruption

  16. 6 CFR 27.215 - Security vulnerability assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ...-risk, the facility must complete a Security Vulnerability Assessment. A Security Vulnerability... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Security vulnerability assessments. 27.215... provided in § 27.235, a covered facility must complete the Security Vulnerability Assessment through...

  17. Reliability and vulnerability analyses of critical infrastructures: Comparing two approaches in the context of power systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Society depends on services provided by critical infrastructures, and hence it is important that they are reliable and robust. Two main approaches for gaining knowledge required for designing and improving critical infrastructures are reliability analysis and vulnerability analysis. The former analyses the ability of the system to perform its intended function; the latter analyses its inability to withstand strains and the effects of the consequent failures. The two approaches have similarities but also some differences with respect to what type of information they generate about the system. In this view, the main purpose of this paper is to discuss and contrast these approaches. To strengthen the discussion and exemplify its findings, a Monte Carlo-based reliability analysis and a vulnerability analysis are considered in their application to a relatively simple, but representative, system the IEEE RTS96 electric power test system. The exemplification reveals that reliability analysis provides a good picture of the system likely behaviour, but fails to capture a large portion of the high consequence scenarios, which are instead captured in the vulnerability analysis. Although these scenarios might be estimated to have small probabilities of occurrence, they should be identified, considered and treated cautiously, as probabilistic analyses should not be the only input to decision-making for the design and protection of critical infrastructures. The general conclusion that can be drawn from the findings of the example is that vulnerability analysis should be used to complement reliability studies, as well as other forms of probabilistic risk analysis. Measures should be sought for reducing both the vulnerability, i.e. improving the system ability to withstand strains and stresses, and the reliability, i.e. improving the likely behaviour

  18. Cyber/Physical Security Vulnerability Assessment Integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This internally funded Laboratory-Directed R and D project by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, in conjunction with QinetiQ North America, is intended to identify and properly assess areas of overlap (and interaction) in the vulnerability assessment process between cyber security and physical protection. Existing vulnerability analysis (VA) processes and software tools exist, and these are heavily utilized in the determination of predicted vulnerability within the physical and cyber security domains. These determinations are normally performed independently of one another, and only interact on a superficial level. Both physical and cyber security subject matter experts have come to realize that though the various interactive elements exist, they are not currently quantified in most periodic security assessments. This endeavor aims to evaluate both physical and cyber VA techniques and provide a strategic approach to integrate the interdependent relationships of each into a single VA capability. This effort will also transform the existing suite of software currently utilized in the physical protection world to more accurately quantify the risk associated with a blended attack scenario. Performance databases will be created to support the characterization of the cyber security elements, and roll them into prototype software tools. This new methodology and software capability will enable analysts to better identify and assess the overall risk during a vulnerability analysis.

  19. A security assessment methodology for critical infrastructures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Caselli, Marco; Kargl, Frank; Hämmerli, Bernhard M.; Lopez, Javier

    2014-01-01

    Interest in security assessment and penetration testing techniques has steadily increased. Likewise, security of industrial control systems (ICS) has become more and more important. Very few methodologies directly target ICS and none of them generalizes the concept of "critical infrastructures pente

  20. NGNP Infrastructure Readiness Assessment: Consolidation Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brian K Castle

    2011-02-01

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) project supports the development, demonstration, and deployment of high temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs). The NGNP project is being reviewed by the Nuclear Energy Advisory Council (NEAC) to provide input to the DOE, who will make a recommendation to the Secretary of Energy, whether or not to continue with Phase 2 of the NGNP project. The NEAC review will be based on, in part, the infrastructure readiness assessment, which is an assessment of industry's current ability to provide specified components for the FOAK NGNP, meet quality assurance requirements, transport components, have the necessary workforce in place, and have the necessary construction capabilities. AREVA and Westinghouse were contracted to perform independent assessments of industry's capabilities because of their experience with nuclear supply chains, which is a result of their experiences with the EPR and AP-1000 reactors. Both vendors produced infrastructure readiness assessment reports that identified key components and categorized these components into three groups based on their ability to be deployed in the FOAK plant. The NGNP project has several programs that are developing key components and capabilities. For these components, the NGNP project have provided input to properly assess the infrastructure readiness for these components.

  1. Effectively protecting cyber infrastructure and assessing security needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robbins, J.; Starman, R. [EWA Canada Ltd., Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2002-07-01

    This presentation addressed some of the requirements for effectively protecting cyber infrastructure and assessing security needs. The paper discussed the hype regarding cyber attacks, and presented the Canadian reality (as viewed by CanCERT). An assessment of security concerns was also presented. Recent cyber attacks on computer networks have raised fears of unsafe energy networks. Some experts claim the attacks are linked to terrorism, others blame industrial spying and mischief. Others dismiss the notion that somebody could bring down a power grid with a laptop as being far-fetched. It was noted that the cyber security threat is real, and that attacks are becoming more sophisticated as we live in a target rich environment. The issue of assessing vulnerabilities was discussed along with the selection of safeguards such as improving SCADA systems and the latest encryption methods to prevent hackers from bringing down computer networks. 3 tabs., 23 figs.

  2. Rapid Assessment of Seismic Vulnerability in Palestinian Refugee Camps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Dabbeek, Jalal N.; El-Kelani, Radwan J.

    Studies of historical and recorded earthquakes in Palestine demonstrate that damaging earthquakes are occurring frequently along the Dead Sea Transform: Earthquake of 11 July 1927 (ML 6.2), Earthquake of 11 February 2004 (ML 5.2). In order to reduce seismic vulnerability of buildings, losses in lives, properties and infrastructures, an attempt was made to estimate the percentage of damage degrees and losses at selected refugee camps: Al Ama`ri, Balata and Dhaishe. Assessing the vulnerability classes of building structures was carried out according to the European Macro-Seismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98) and the Fedral Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The rapid assessment results showed that very heavy structural and non structural damages will occur in the common buildings of the investigated Refugee Camps (many buildings will suffer from damages grades 4 and 5). Bad quality of buildings in terms of design and construction, lack of uniformity, absence of spaces between the building and the limited width of roads will definitely increase the seismic vulnerability under the influence of moderate-strong (M 6-7) earthquakes in the future.

  3. Assessing Labour Market Vulnerability among Young People

    OpenAIRE

    Theo Sparreboom; Lubna Shahnaz

    2007-01-01

    Labour market performance in Pakistan has improved markedly in recent years. This paper examines the extent to which young people have benefited from this improvement, using the labour market vulnerability framework that was recently introduced by the ILO. This framework can be used to assess the difficulties young people face on the road to decent employment, and may also serve as a basis for the development of appropriate policies and interventions. Drawing on empirical evidence from variou...

  4. Low carbon technology performance vs infrastructure vulnerability: Analysis through the local and global properties space

    OpenAIRE

    Dawson, DA; Purnell, P; Roelich, K; Busch, J.; Steinberger, JK

    2014-01-01

    Renewable energy technologies, necessary for low-carbon infrastructure networks, are being adopted to help reduce fossil fuel dependence and meet carbon mitigation targets. The evolution of these technologies has progressed based on the enhancement of technology-specific performance criteria, without explicitly considering the wider system (global) impacts. This paper presents a methodology for simultaneously assessing local (technology) and global (infrastructure) performance, allowing key t...

  5. Modeling Infrastructure Vulnerabilities and Adaptation to Climate Change in Urban Systems: Methodology and Application to Metropolitan Boston

    OpenAIRE

    Ruth, Matthias

    2003-01-01

    Much of the infrastructure in use today was designed and constructed decades if not centuries ago. Many of these infrastructure systems are vulnerable to a variety of anthropogenic or natural disruptions even though their functioning is vital to the creation and maintenance of quality of life in a region. Moreover, concepts and designs have persisted even as technologies have changed. Yet the demands and technologies of the future may require infrastructures - both material facilities and hum...

  6. Seismic vulnerability assessments in risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frolova, Nina; Larionov, Valery; Bonnin, Jean; Ugarov, Alexander

    2013-04-01

    The assessment of seismic vulnerability is a critical issue within natural and technological risk analysis. In general, there are three common types of methods used for development of vulnerability functions of different elements at risk: empirical, analytical and expert estimations. The paper addresses the empirical methods for seismic vulnerability estimation for residential buildings and industrial facilities. The results of engineering analysis of past earthquake consequences, as well as the statistical data on buildings behavior during strong earthquakes presented in the different seismic intensity scales, are used to verify the regional parameters of mathematical models in order to simulate physical and economic vulnerability for different building types classified according to seismic scale MMSK-86. Verified procedure has been used to estimate the physical and economic vulnerability of buildings and constructions against earthquakes for the Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area, which are characterized by rather high level of seismic activity and high population density. In order to estimate expected damage states to buildings and constructions in the case of the earthquakes according to the OSR-97B (return period T=1,000 years) within big cities and towns, they were divided into unit sites and their coordinates were presented as dots located in the centers of unit sites. Then the indexes obtained for each unit site were summed up. The maps of physical vulnerability zoning for Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area includes two elements: percent of different damage states for settlements with number of inhabitants less than 1,000 and vulnerability for cities and towns with number of inhabitants more than 1,000. The hypsometric scale is used to represent both elements on the maps. Taking into account the size of oil pipe line systems located in the highly active seismic zones in

  7. Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Facilities. Preliminary Synthesis of Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moss, R. H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL)/Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.; Blohm, A. J. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Delgado, A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL)/Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.; Henriques, J. J. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Malone, E L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL)/Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.

    2015-08-15

    U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. Agencies have been experimenting with these frameworks and approaches. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Department of Energy and the Department of Defense. The purpose of the paper is to solicit comments and feedback from interested program managers and analysts before final conclusions are published. The paper describes the characteristics of a systematic process for prioritizing needs for adaptation planning at individual facilities and examines requirements and methods needed. It then suggests a framework of steps for vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. In a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change. The case studies point to several preliminary conclusions; (1) Vulnerability assessments are needed to translate potential changes in climate exposure to estimates of impacts and evaluation of their significance for operations and mission attainment, in other words into information that is related to and useful in ongoing planning, management, and decision-making processes; (2) To increase the relevance and utility of vulnerability assessments to site personnel, the assessment process needs to emphasize the characteristics of the site infrastructure, not just climate change; (3) A multi-tiered framework that includes screening, vulnerability assessments at the most vulnerable installations, and adaptation design will efficiently target high-risk sites and infrastructure

  8. DETERMINANTS OF RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS IN CRITICAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

    OpenAIRE

    Przemysław Borkowski

    2016-01-01

    Article deals with the problem of risk assessment in critical energy infrastructure. Firstly the critical infrastructure in energy sector is discussed than risk identification methodology for application to critical infrastructure is proposed. Specific conditions resulting from features of critical infrastructure are addressed in the context of risk assessment procedure. The limits of such a procedure are outlined and critical factors influencing different stages of risk assessment process a...

  9. Assessing the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khresat, Sa'eb; Shraidaeh, Fadi; Maddat, Amer

    2015-04-01

    Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats facing Jordan. In particular, the combined effects of climate change and water scarcity threaten to affect food and water resources that are critical for livelihoods in Jordan. This is especially true for those communities who live in the dryland area in the country and who rely wholly on rain-fed agriculture. The exact nature and extent of the impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation distribution pattern remain uncertain and it is the poor and vulnerable who will be the most susceptible to climate change adverse effects. A vulnerability assessment of rain fed agriculture to climate change and variability in semi-arid parts of Jordan was conducted in 2014. The purpose of this study is to assess the vulnerability and resilience of the most vulnerable groups where rainfed and irrigated agriculture is practiced. Also, the study focused on quantifying the impacts on agricultural productivity in response to climate change. This will help policymakers and researchers better understand and anticipate the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture and on vulnerable communities in Jordan. Also, it will provide them with tools to identify and implement appropriate adaptation strategies. The data used includes; Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Those pathways were used for climate modeling. A decision support system (DSSAT) for agricultural production was used to assess the impact of climate changes on agricultural production. This approach was used for the Identification of climate change risk and their impacts on Agriculture. Outputs from models are used to assess the vulnerability of farmers and crops to climate and socio-economic change by estimating their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to external factors as a means of identifying what causes the differences in their

  10. Drought vulnerability assessment: The case of wheat farmers in Western Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarafshani, Kiumars; Sharafi, Lida; Azadi, Hossein; Hosseininia, Gholamhossein; De Maeyer, Philippe; Witlox, Frank

    2012-12-01

    Drought, as a natural and slow-onset phenomenon, creates numerous damages to agricultural communities. As a drought prone area in the Middle East, Iran has currently launched a crisis management approach to mitigate the harmful impacts of drought. However, thus far studies indicate that effective drought management strategies should be designed based upon vulnerability management which can increase farmers' ability to challenge the impacts. The purpose of this study was to assess drought vulnerability across three drought intensities (very high, extremely high, and critical) areas in Western Iran. Accordingly, a survey study was applied and 370 wheat farmers who all experienced drought during 2007-2009 were selected through a multi-stage stratified random sampling method. Face to face interviews were used to collect data on vulnerability indices from the farmers. Me-Bar and Valdez's vulnerability formula was applied to assess the vulnerability of wheat farmers during drought. Results revealed that the farmers' vulnerability is influenced mainly by economic, socio-cultural, psychological, technical, and infrastructural factors. The results also indicated that the farmers in Sarpole-Zahab township were most vulnerable compared to those in the Kermanshah township as the least vulnerable. Accordingly, some conclusions and recommendations are drawn for both policy-makers and practitioners who often must prioritize limited resources in the design vulnerability-reducing interventions.

  11. Interactive exploration of the vulnerability of the human infrastructure: an approach using simultaneous display of similar locations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceré, Raphaël; Kaiser, Christian

    2015-04-01

    Currently, three quarters of the Swiss population is living in urban areas. The total population is still increasing, and urbanized space is increasing event faster. Consequently, the intensity of use has decreased but the exposure of the urban space to natural events has grown along with the cost related to the impact of hazards. In line with this fact, during the 20th century there has been a noticeable increase of natural disasters accompanied by the rapid increase of the world population, leading to higher costs. Additionally to the fact that more people are exposed to natural hazards, the value of goods globally has increased more than proportionally. Consequently, the vulnerability of urban space is, more than ever before, a major issue for socio-economic development. Here, vulnerability is defined as the potential human loss or loss of infrastructure caused by a hazardous event. It encompasses factors of urban infrastructure, population and the environment, which increase the susceptibility of a location to the impact of hazards. This paper describes a novel method for improving the interactive use of exploratory data analysis in the context of minimizing vulnerability and disaster risk by prevention or mitigation. This method is used to assess the similarity between different locations with respect to several characteristics relevant to vulnerability at different scales, allowing for automatic display of multiple locations similar to the one under investigation by an expert. Visualizing vulnerability simultaneously for several locations allows for analyzing and comparing of metric characteristics between multiple places and at different scales. The interactivity aspect is also useful for understanding vulnerability patterns and it facilitates disaster risk management and decisions on global preventive measures in urban spaces. Metrics for vulnerability assessment can be extracted from extensive geospatial datasets such as high-resolution digital elevation

  12. Debris Flow Vulnerability Assessment in Urban Area Associated with Landslide Hazard Map : Application to Busan, Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okjeong, Lee; Yoonkyung, Park; Mookwang, Sung; Sangdan, Kim

    2016-04-01

    In this presentation, an urban debris flow disaster vulnerability assessment methodology is suggested with major focus on urban social and economic aspect. The proposed methodology is developed based on the landslide hazard maps that Korean Forest Service has utilized to identify landslide source areas. Frist, debris flows are propagated to urban areas from such source areas by Flow-R model, and then urban vulnerability is evaluated by two categories; physical and socio-economic aspect. The physical vulnerability is associated to buildings that can be broken down by a landslide event directly. This study considers two popular building structure types, reinforced concrete frame and non-reinforced concretes frame, to evaluate the physically-based vulnerability. The socio-economic vulnerability is measured as a function of the resistant levels of the exposed people, the intensity and magnitude of indirect or intangible losses, and preparedness level of the local government. An indicator-based model is established to evaluate the life and indirect loss under urban debris flow disasters as well as the resilience ability against disasters. To illuminate the validity of the suggested methodology, physical and socio-economic vulnerability levels are investigated for Daejeon, Korea using the proposed approach. The results reveal that the higher population density areas under a weaker fiscal condition that are located at the downstream of mountainous areas are more vulnerable than the areas in opposite conditions. Key words: Debris flow disasters, Physical vulnerability, Socio-economic Vulnerability, Urban Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant(13SCIPS04) from Smart Civil Infrastructure Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport(MOLIT) of Korea government and Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement(KAIA).

  13. ELECTRIC INFRASTRUCTURE TECHNOLOGY, TRAINING, AND ASSESSMENT PROGRAM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    TREMEL, CHARLES L

    2007-06-28

    The objective of this Electric Infrastructure Technology, Training and Assessment Program was to enhance the reliability of electricity delivery through engineering integration of real-time technologies for wide-area applications enabling timely monitoring and management of grid operations. The technologies developed, integrated, tested and demonstrated will be incorporated into grid operations to assist in the implementation of performance-based protection/preventive measures into the existing electric utility infrastructure. This proactive approach will provide benefits of reduced cost and improved reliability over the typical schedule-based and as needed maintenance programs currently performed by utilities. Historically, utilities have relied on maintenance and inspection programs to diagnose equipment failures and have used the limited circuit isolation devices, such as distribution main circuit breakers to identify abnormal system performance. With respect to reliable problem identification, customer calls to utility service centers are often the sole means for utilities to identify problem occurrences and determine restoration methodologies. Furthermore, monitoring and control functions of equipment and circuits are lacking; thus preventing timely detection and response to customer outages. Finally, the two-way flow of real-time system information is deficient, depriving decision makers of key information required to effectively manage and control current electric grid demands to provide reliable customer service in abnormal situations. This Program focused on advancing technologies and the engineering integration required to incorporate them into the electric grid operations to enhance electrical system reliability and reduce utility operating costs.

  14. Dynamic Assessment on Ecosystem Vulnerability in Dashanbao Wetland

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    [Objective] The aim was to assess the ecosystem vulnerability of Dashanbao wetland.[Method] The evaluation index system of ecosystem vulnerability of Dashanbao wetland was constructed by using analytic hierarchy process(AHP),and the ecosystem vulnerability of Dashanbao wetland from 2002 to 2008 was assessed based on vulnerable degree of ecosystem.[Result] The vulnerable degree of ecosystem of Dashanbao wetland from 2002 to 2008 was 0.560 0,0.513 7,0.516 4,0.465 4,0.476 0,0.449 2 and 0.400 6 respectively,tha...

  15. Assessing community vulnerabilities to natural hazards on the Island of Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishioka, Chris; Delparte, Donna

    2010-05-01

    The island of Hawaii is susceptible to numerous natural hazards such as tsunamis, flooding, lava flow, earthquakes, hurricanes, landslides, wildfires and storm surge. The impact of a natural disaster on the island's communities has the potential to endanger peoples' lives and threaten critical infrastructure, homes, businesses and economic drivers such as tourism. A Geographic Information System (GIS) has the ability to assess community vulnerabilities by examining the spatial relationships between hazard zones, socioeconomic infrastructure and demographic data. By drawing together existing datasets, GIS was used to examine a number of community vulnerabilities. Key areas of interest were government services, utilities, property assets, industry and transportation. GIS was also used to investigate population dynamics in hazard zones. Identification of community vulnerabilities from GIS analysis can support mitigation measures and assist planning and response measures to natural hazards.

  16. Volcanic hazards at distant critical infrastructure: A method for bespoke, multi-disciplinary assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odbert, H. M.; Aspinall, W.; Phillips, J.; Jenkins, S.; Wilson, T. M.; Scourse, E.; Sheldrake, T.; Tucker, P.; Nakeshree, K.; Bernardara, P.; Fish, K.

    2015-12-01

    Societies rely on critical services such as power, water, transport networks and manufacturing. Infrastructure may be sited to minimise exposure to natural hazards but not all can be avoided. The probability of long-range transport of a volcanic plume to a site is comparable to other external hazards that must be considered to satisfy safety assessments. Recent advances in numerical models of plume dispersion and stochastic modelling provide a formalized and transparent approach to probabilistic assessment of hazard distribution. To understand the risks to critical infrastructure far from volcanic sources, it is necessary to quantify their vulnerability to different hazard stressors. However, infrastructure assets (e.g. power plantsand operational facilities) are typically complex systems in themselves, with interdependent components that may differ in susceptibility to hazard impact. Usually, such complexity means that risk either cannot be estimated formally or that unsatisfactory simplifying assumptions are prerequisite to building a tractable risk model. We present a new approach to quantifying risk by bridging expertise of physical hazard modellers and infrastructure engineers. We use a joint expert judgment approach to determine hazard model inputs and constrain associated uncertainties. Model outputs are chosen on the basis of engineering or operational concerns. The procedure facilitates an interface between physical scientists, with expertise in volcanic hazards, and infrastructure engineers, with insight into vulnerability to hazards. The result is a joined-up approach to estimating risk from low-probability hazards to critical infrastructure. We describe our methodology and show preliminary results for vulnerability to volcanic hazards at a typical UK industrial facility. We discuss our findings in the context of developing bespoke assessment of hazards from distant sources in collaboration with key infrastructure stakeholders.

  17. Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment Accounting for Human Influence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehran, A.; AghaKouchak, A.

    2014-12-01

    Reservoirs are one of the main infrastructures that provide resilience against extremes (e.g., floods and droughts) and they play a key role in water resources management. Based on International Commission of Large Dams (ICOLD 2003) records, the total volume of reservoirs is over 6200 km3, which is twice larger than the global annual water use estimated as 3000 km3. Just a simple comparison of the two numbers indicates the importance of reservoirs and their role in providing resilience for water security. On the other hand, man-made reservoirs change the water distribution throughout the year. Most climate change impact studies ignore the role of reservoirs in water availability studies. However, water availability cannot be properly assessed without a thorough assessment of reservoir conditions. By combining classical methods for climate variability assessment (top-down approach) and influence assessment (bottom-up approach), this study offers a hybrid framework that integrates different drivers of water storage vulnerability. Final index is termed as the Multivariate Standardized Reliability and Resilience Index (MSRRI). This index investigates the adaptive capacity of the reservoir and exposure of the system to variable conditions. MSRRI has been investigated over several major reservoirs in Australia and California, United States. This presentation reviews recent findings and discusses reservoir conditions in Australia and California using MSRRI under different climatic change scenarios.

  18. Performance assessment of innovation infrastructure facilities in Russia

    OpenAIRE

    Barinova, Vera; Sorokina, Alla

    2014-01-01

    Performance assessment of innovation infrastructure facilities might be seen as one of the most topical issues of regional development in Russia. Due to the variety of infrastructure types, it's difficult to select the assessment indicators, for there are no generally accepted and integrated performance assessment measures, based on verifiable data according to the enquiries of the stakeholders. The article discusses ways to evaluate the efficiency of innovation infrastructure facilities in R...

  19. Risk assessment of mountain infrastructure destabilization in the French Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duvillard, Pierre-Allain; Ravanel, Ludovic; Deline, Philip

    2015-04-01

    In the current context of imbalance of geosystems in connection with the rising air temperature for several decades, high mountain environments are especially affected by the shrinkage of glaciers and the permafrost degradation which can trigger slope movements in the rock slopes (rockfall, rock avalanches) or in superficial deposits (slides, rock glacier rupture, thermokarst). These processes generate a risk of direct destabilization for high mountain infrastructure (huts, cable-cars...) in addition to indirect risks for people and infrastructure located on the path of moving rock masses. We here focus on the direct risk of infrastructure destabilization due to permafrost degradation and/or glacier shrinkage in the French Alps. To help preventing these risks, an inventory of all the infrastructure was carried out with a GIS using different data layers among which the Alpine Permafrost Index Map and inventories of the French Alps glaciers in 2006-2009, 1967-1971 and at the end of the Little Ice Age. 1769 infrastructures have been identified in areas likely characterized by permafrost and/or possibly affected by glacier shrinkage. An index of risk of destabilization has been built to identify and to rank infrastructure at risk. This theoretical risk index includes a characterization of hazards and a diagnosis of the vulnerability. The value of hazard is dependent on passive factors (topography, lithology, geomorphological context...) and on so-considered active factors (thermal state of the permafrost, and changing constraints on slopes related to glacier shrinkage). The diagnosis of vulnerability has meanwhile been established by combining the level of potential damage to the exposed elements with their operational and financial values. The combination of hazard and vulnerability determines a degree of risk of infrastructure destabilization (from low to very high). Field work and several inventories of infrastructure damages were used to validate it. The

  20. Rockfall vulnerability assessment for masonry buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mavrouli, Olga

    2015-04-01

    The methodologies for the quantitative risk assessment vary in function of the application scale and the available data. For fragmental rockfalls, risk calculation requires data for the expected damage of the exposed elements due to potential rock block impacts with a range of trajectories, magnitudes and intensities. Although the procedures for the quantification of the rock block characteristics in terms of magnitude-frequency relationships are well established, there are few methodologies for the calculation of the vulnerability, and these are usually empirical or judgmental. The response of buildings to rock block impacts using analytical methods has been mainly realised so far for reinforced concrete buildings, and some fragility curves have been calculated with the results, indicating the potential damage for a range of rock block characteristics. Masonry buildings, as a common structural typology in mountainous areas, are in many cases impacted by rock blocks during rockfalls. Their response presents some peculiarities in comparison with reinforced-concrete structures given the non-homogeneity and variability of the compound materials (blocks and mortar), their orthotropy, low strength in tension, the statically indeterminate load-bearing system and the non-monolithic connections. To this purpose, analytical procedures which are specifically adapted to masonry structures should be used for the evaluation of the expected damage due to rock impacts. In this contribution we discuss the application of the analytical approach for the assessment of the expected damage in rockfall prone areas and the simulation assumptions that can be made concerning the materials, geometry, loading and the relevant simplifications. The amount of uncertainties introduced during their analytical simulation is high due to the dispersion of the data for material mechanical properties and the construction techniques and quality and thus a probabilistic assessment is suggested. The

  1. 7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 11 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27 Section 1730.27 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL UTILITIES... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS...

  2. Completing Northeast Regional Vulnerability Assessment Incorporating the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — NatureServe and Heritage Program collaborators have developed a Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to provide a rapid, scientifically defensible assessment...

  3. Elements at risk as a framework for assessing the vulnerability of communities to landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papathoma-Köhle, M.; Neuhäuser, B.; Ratzinger, K.; Wenzel, H.; Dominey-Howes, D.

    2007-12-01

    The assessment of the vulnerability of communities prone to landslide related disasters is a topic that is growing in importance. Few studies discuss this issue and limited research has been carried out on the relationship between types of landslide and their potential impact on buildings and infrastructure. We outline a framework to undertake an assessment of the vulnerability of buildings to landslide utilising a similar framework used for assessing the vulnerability of buildings to tsunami damage. The framework is based on the development of an "elements at risk database" that takes into consideration the characteristics and use of the buildings, their importance for the local economy and the characteristics of the inhabitants (population density, age and so forth). The attributes that affect vulnerability are imported and examined within a GIS database which is used to visualise the physical, human and economic vulnerability. The results may have important implications for disaster management and emergency planning, and the database can be used by various end-users and stakeholders such as insurance companies, local authorities and the emergency services. The approach presented here can be integrated in to a wider more detailed "Framework for Landslide Risk and Vulnerability Assessment for Communities". We illustrate the potential of this framework and present preliminary results from Lichtenstein, Baden Württemberg, Germany.

  4. Vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taback, I.

    1979-01-01

    The discussion of vulnerability begins with a description of some of the electrical characteristics of fibers before definiting how vulnerability calculations are done. The vulnerability results secured to date are presented. The discussion touches on post exposure vulnerability. After a description of some shock hazard work now underway, the discussion leads into a description of the planned effort and some preliminary conclusions are presented.

  5. 77 FR 28894 - Maritime Vulnerability Self-Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-16

    ...-1933, email TSA-OSCCommunications@tsa.dhs.gov . SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: On December 5, 2003 (68 FR... SECURITY Transportation Security Administration Maritime Vulnerability Self-Assessment Tool AGENCY...- assessment tool. SUMMARY: The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) announces that the TSA...

  6. WEB SECURITY VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND RECOVERY MACHANISAM

    OpenAIRE

    Madhusudhanan, M.; M. Saravanan; D.Durai kumar

    2015-01-01

    Nowadays web applications have critical logical holes (bug) affecting its security, Thus it makes application as vulnerable and easy to attack by hackers and organized crime. In order to prevent these security problems from occurrence of its maximum importance to understand the typical software faults. This paper contributes the knowledge of widely spread two critical web applications by presenting a field study on most of vulnerabilities like SQL Injection and XSS. By analyzing t...

  7. Assessment of socioeconomic vulnerability to landslides using an indicator-based approach: methodology and case studies

    OpenAIRE

    Eidsvig, Unni M. K.; McLean, Amanda M.; Vangelsten, Bjørn Vidar; Kalsnes, Bjørn G.; Ciurean, Roxana L.; Argyroudis, Sotiris; Winter, Mike; Mavrouli, Olga Christina; Fotopoulou, Stavroula D.; Pitilakis, Kyriazis D.; Baills, Audrey; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Kaiser, Gunilla

    2014-01-01

    The severity of the impact of a natural hazard on a society depends on, among other factors, the intensity of the hazard and the exposure and resistance ability of the elements at risk (e.g., persons, buildings and infrastructures). Social conditions strongly influence the vulnerability factors for both direct and indirect impact and therefore control the possibility to transform the occurrence of a natural hazard into a natural disaster. This article presents a model to assess the relative s...

  8. Climate change vulnerability assessments in the regional context

    OpenAIRE

    Holsten, Anne

    2013-01-01

    Adapting sectors to new conditions under climate change requires an understanding of regional vulnerabilities. Conceptually, vulnerability is defined as a function of sensitivity and exposure, which determine climate impacts, and adaptive capacity of a system. Vulnerability assessments for quantifying these components have become a key tool within the climate change field. However, there is a disagreement on how to make the concept operational in studies from a scientific perspective. This co...

  9. Vulnerability Assessment Models to Drought: Toward a Conceptual Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kiumars Zarafshani

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Drought is regarded as a slow-onset natural disaster that causes inevitable damage to water resources and to farm life. Currently, crisis management is the basis of drought mitigation plans, however, thus far studies indicate that effective drought management strategies are based on risk management. As a primary tool in mitigating the impact of drought, vulnerability assessment can be used as a benchmark in drought mitigation plans and to enhance farmers’ ability to cope with drought. Moreover, literature pertaining to drought has focused extensively on its impact, only awarding limited attention to vulnerability assessment as a tool. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to develop a conceptual framework for designing a vulnerability model in order to assess farmers’ level of vulnerability before, during and after the onset of drought. Use of this developed drought vulnerability model would aid disaster relief workers by enhancing the adaptive capacity of farmers when facing the impacts of drought. The paper starts with the definition of vulnerability and outlines different frameworks on vulnerability developed thus far. It then identifies various approaches of vulnerability assessment and finally offers the most appropriate model. The paper concludes that the introduced model can guide drought mitigation programs in countries that are impacted the most by drought.

  10. Development of a vulnerability assessment program for domestic use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Physical Protection System (PPS) design process includes the vulnerability assessment phase to validate the performance of the designed PPS. The direct evaluation of a PPS consisting of a lot of detection, delay and response elements, requires a large amount of resources (time, manpower, cost, and so on) thus it is an impractical approach in most cases. However, an appropriately developed vulnerability assessment program demands less resources for the PPS design evaluation and provides useful information on PPS improvement. This paper describes the functional requirements, technical considerations, development plan, and conceptual design of a vulnerability assessment program for Korean PPSs

  11. Mechanical vulnerability assessment of civil structures to snow avalanches

    OpenAIRE

    Bertrand, D.; Naaïm, M.

    2007-01-01

    The development of tourism, infrastructures and communication networks, and the rarefaction of the safe areas, make difficult to reconcile security, economic and social development. To protect inhabitants against the natural threats, new strategies for risk mitigation has to be adopted. Quantitative risk analysis, which expresses the risk as the product of the hazard (A) and the vulnerability of the element at risk (V), is the one of the main steps. This communication deals with the assessmen...

  12. Socio-economic Vulnerability Assessment of Natural Disaster Considering Urban Characteristics in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Yoonkyung; Jun, Hwandon; Kim, Sangdan

    2015-04-01

    In this presentation, an indicator-based model is proposed to quantify socio-economic damage under natural disaster in Seoul, Korea. Seoul is the highest population density in Korea. Scales of the model are divided into two classes. First scale is "borough", which is town, or a district with a large town, and has its own council. In the case of Seoul, average size of boroughs is 24.28 square kilometers. Second one is "census output area", which is the finest level of statistical information. Average size of census output area in Seoul is 0.0374 kilometers. The Census output area has high resolution than boroughs. For the purpose of considering various aspects on socio-economic vulnerability under natural disaster, the proposed socio-economic vulnerability assessment model is composed of demographic/social indicator, economic indicator, and prepare/response/recovery indicator. Each of them is consist of 5, 3, and 6 proxy variables, respectively. Using the suggested model, the socio-economic vulnerability for 25 boroughs and 16,230 census output areas of Seoul is assessed. As a result, it is shown that southeastern boroughs in Seoul (Gangnam and Seocho) have lower vulnerability scores than other boroughs. According to this results, these places are much safer than other regions under natural disaster. Additionally, the socio-economic vulnerability was assessed in scale of census output data. Socio-economic vulnerability scores are shown similar results comparing with results of borough scale. However, socio-economic vulnerability scores are calculated in higher resolution. These results are caused by different demographic and social factors in each census output area even census output areas are located same borough. The additional importance of vulnerability assessment in the scale of census output areas will be presented. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant(13SCIPS04) from Smart Civil Infrastructure Research Program funded by Ministry of Land

  13. California Statewide Plug-In Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melaina, Marc; Helwig, Michael

    2014-05-01

    The California Statewide Plug-In Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Assessment conveys to interested parties the Energy Commission’s conclusions, recommendations, and intentions with respect to plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) infrastructure development. There are several relatively low-risk and high-priority electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) deployment options that will encourage PEV sales and

  14. Urbanising Thailand: Implications for climate vulnerability assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Friend; C. Choosuk; K. Hutanuwatr; Y. Inmuong; J. Kittitornkool; B. Lambregts; B. Promphakping; T. Roachanakanan; P. Thiengburanathum; S. Siriwattanaphaiboon

    2016-01-01

    This report summarises a series of studies carried out by a multi-disciplinary team of Thai scholars. It focuses on the dynamics of urbanisation and climate change risks, and on the linkages between urbanisation, climate change and emerging patterns of urban poverty and vulnerability. It provides ne

  15. Climate Vulnerability Assessments : An Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability, Risk, and Adaptation in Albania's Energy Sector

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2009-01-01

    Many countries are increasingly vulnerable to destructive weather events, floods, droughts, windstorms, or other parameters. The vulnerability is driven in part by recent extremes in climate variability but also by countries' sensitivity to events exacerbated by past practices, socioeconomic conditions, or legacy issues. The degree to which vulnerability to weather affects the countries' e...

  16. Assessing the vulnerability of buildings to tsunami in Sydney

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dall'Osso

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Australia is vulnerable to the impacts of tsunamis and exposure along the SE coast of New South Wales is especially high. Significantly, this is the same area reported to have been affected by repeated large magnitude tsunamis during the Holocene. Efforts are under way to complete probabilistic risk assessments for the region but local government planners and emergency risk managers need information now about building vulnerability in order to develop appropriate risk management strategies. We use the newly revised PTVA-3 Model (Dall'Osso et al., 2009 to assess the relative vulnerability of buildings to damage from a "worst case tsunami" defined by our latest understanding of regional risk – something never before undertaken in Australia. We present selected results from an investigation of building vulnerability within the local government area of Manly – an iconic coastal area of Sydney. We show that a significant proportion of buildings (in particular, residential structures are classified as having "High" and "Very High" Relative Vulnerability Index scores. Furthermore, other important buildings (e.g., schools, nursing homes and transport structures are also vulnerable to damage. Our results have serious implications for immediate emergency risk management, longer-term land-use zoning and development, and building design and construction standards. Based on the work undertaken here, we recommend further detailed assessment of the vulnerability of coastal buildings in at risk areas, development of appropriate risk management strategies and a detailed program of community engagement to increase overall resilience.

  17. California Statewide PEV Infrastructure Assessment; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melaina, Marc; Eichman, Joshua

    2015-06-10

    This presentation discusses how the California Statewide Plug-In Electric Vehicle (PEV) Infrastructure Assessment provides a framework for understanding the potential energy (kWh) and demand (MW) impacts of PEV market growth; how PEV travel simulations can inform the role of public infrastructure in future market growth; and how ongoing assessment updates and Alternative Fuels Data Center outreach can help coordinate stakeholder planning and decision making and reduce uncertainties.

  18. Formal Vulnerability Assessment of a maritime transportation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    World trade increasingly relies on longer, larger and more complex supply chains, where maritime transportation is a vital backbone of such operations. Long and complex supply chain systems are more prone to being vulnerable, though through reviews, no specific methods have been found to assess vulnerabilities of a maritime transportation system. Most existing supply chain risk assessment frameworks require risks to be foreseen to be mitigated, rather than giving transportation systems the ability to cope with unforeseen threats and hazards. In assessing cost-efficiency, societal vulnerability versus industrial cost of measures should be included. This conceptual paper presents a structured Formal Vulnerability Assessment (FVA) methodology, seeking to transfer the safety-oriented Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) framework into the domain of maritime supply chain vulnerability. To do so, the following two alterations are made: (1) The focus of the assessment is defined to ensure the ability of the transportation to serve as a throughput mechanism of goods, and to survive and recover from disruptive events. (2) To cope with low-frequency high-impact disruptive scenarios that were not necessarily foreseen, two parallel tracks of risk assessments need to be pursued-the cause-focused risk assessment as in the FSA, and a consequence-focused failure mode approach.

  19. A framework for sea level rise vulnerability assessment for southwest U.S. military installations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadwick, B.; Flick, Reinhard; Helly, J.; Nishikawa, T.; Pei, Fang Wang; O'Reilly, W.; Guza, R.; Bromirski, Peter; Young, A.; Crampton, W.; Wild, B.; Canner, I.

    2011-01-01

    We describe an analysis framework to determine military installation vulnerabilities under increases in local mean sea level as projected over the next century. The effort is in response to an increasing recognition of potential climate change ramifications for national security and recommendations that DoD conduct assessments of the impact on U.S. military installations of climate change. Results of the effort described here focus on development of a conceptual framework for sea level rise vulnerability assessment at coastal military installations in the southwest U.S. We introduce the vulnerability assessment in the context of a risk assessment paradigm that incorporates sources in the form of future sea level conditions, pathways of impact including inundation, flooding, erosion and intrusion, and a range of military installation specific receptors such as critical infrastructure and training areas. A unique aspect of the methodology is the capability to develop wave climate projections from GCM outputs and transform these to future wave conditions at specific coastal sites. Future sea level scenarios are considered in the context of installation sensitivity curves which reveal response thresholds specific to each installation, pathway and receptor. In the end, our goal is to provide a military-relevant framework for assessment of accelerated SLR vulnerability, and develop the best scientifically-based scenarios of waves, tides and storms and their implications for DoD installations in the southwestern U.S. ?? 2011 MTS.

  20. Scenario-based Storm Surge Vulnerability Assessment of Catanduanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez, J. K. B.

    2015-12-01

    After the devastating storm surge effect of Typhoon Haiyan, the public recognized an improved communication about risks, vulnerabilities and what is threatened by storm surge. This can be provided by vulnerability maps which allow better visual presentations and understanding of the risks and vulnerabilities. Local implementers can direct the resources needed for protection of these areas. Moreover, vulnerability and hazard maps are relevant in all phases of disaster management designed by the National Disaster Risk Reduction Council (NDRRMC) - disaster preparedness, prevention and mitigation and response and recovery and rehabilitation. This paper aims to analyze the vulnerability of Catanduanes, a coastal province in the Philippines, to storm surges in terms of four parameters: population, built environment, natural environment and agricultural production. The vulnerability study relies on the storm surge inundation maps based on the Department of Science and Technology Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards' (DOST-Project NOAH) proposed four Storm Surge Advisory (SSA) scenarios (1-2, 3, 4, and 5 meters) for predicting storm surge heights. To determine total percent affected for each parameter elements, an overlay analysis was performed in ArcGIS Desktop. Moreover, vulnerability and hazard maps are generated as a final output and a tool for visualizing the impacts of storm surge event at different surge heights. The result of this study would help the selected province to know their present condition and adapt strategies to strengthen areas where they are found to be most vulnerable in order to prepare better for the future.

  1. SAVI: a pc-based vulnerability assessment program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SAVI (Systematic Analysis of Vulnerability to Intrusion) represents a new generation of analyses programs, which assess the vulnerability of a physical protection system and are designed for use on personal computers. Features unique to SAVI include (a) analysis of all adversary paths, (b) a safeguards-component catalog with a detection/delay performance database, (c) results in graphic form, and (d) path-upgrade recommendations. The primary figure of merit calculated for system effectiveness is the probability of adversary interruption before mission completion. SAVI has been taught to more than 200 security analysts from the US Dept. of Energy and is currently its standard tool for outsider-threat vulnerability analysis

  2. Quantitative Vulnerability Assessment of Cyber Security for Distribution Automation Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaming Ye

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The distribution automation system (DAS is vulnerable to cyber-attacks due to the widespread use of terminal devices and standard communication protocols. On account of the cost of defense, it is impossible to ensure the security of every device in the DAS. Given this background, a novel quantitative vulnerability assessment model of cyber security for DAS is developed in this paper. In the assessment model, the potential physical consequences of cyber-attacks are analyzed from two levels: terminal device level and control center server level. Then, the attack process is modeled based on game theory and the relationships among different vulnerabilities are analyzed by introducing a vulnerability adjacency matrix. Finally, the application process of the proposed methodology is illustrated through a case study based on bus 2 of the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS. The results demonstrate the reasonability and effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

  3. Baltic Climate Vulnerability Assessment Framework : Introduction and Guidelines

    OpenAIRE

    Hjerpe, Mattias; Wilk, Julie

    2010-01-01

    This Vulnerability Assessment Framework was put together within the project Baltic Challenges and Chances for local and regional development generated by Climate Change financed by the European Regional Development Fund and the Baltic Sea Region Programme 2007-2013. The purpose of the framework is to guide and assist the Target Areas (TA) within the project in mapping and analysing the challenges and chances created by climate change. The Vulnerability exercises have originally been developed...

  4. Forest climate change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Himalayas

    OpenAIRE

    Chitale, V. S.; Shrestha, H. L.; Agarwal, N. K.; Choudhurya, D.; Gilani, H.; Dhonju, H. K.; M. S. R. Murthy

    2014-01-01

    Forests offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities over Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and developing knowledge base to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is realized as an urgent need. The multi scale adaptation strategies portray increasing complexity with the increasing levels in terms of data requirements, vulnerability understanding and decision making to...

  5. Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Ancient Masonry Building: An Experimental Method

    OpenAIRE

    Mendes, Nuno; Lourenço, Paulo B.; Campos-Costa, A.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a review of the methods for seismic vulnerability assessment, together with an experimental method based on shaking table testing. This method is applied to a Portuguese masonry building typology with stone walls and timber floors, subjected to increasing earthquake damage. Traditional-like materials and techniques are used in the building. The vulnerability curves are presented and the damage indicator is correlated with the crack patterns and EMS 98.

  6. Attacker economics for Internet-scale vulnerability risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Allodi, Luca

    2013-01-01

    Vulnerability risk assessment is a crucial process in security management, and the CVSS score is the standard-de-facto risk metric for software vulnerabilities. In this manuscript I show that current risk assessment methodologies do not fit real “in the wild” attack data. I also present my three-steps plan to identify an Internet-scale risk assessment methodology that accounts for attacker economics and opportunities. Eventually, I want to provide answers like the following: “If we depl...

  7. Drought vulnerability assessment for the agriculture: a case study for the west part of Slovenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slejko, M.; Gregorič, G.; Bergant, K.

    2009-04-01

    One of the main aspects of drought adaptation and planning is the assessment of vulnerability. Since agriculture is the primary sector affected by drought and is directly dependent on water availability, we have started with a pilot project in an important agricultural area in the west part of Slovenia. The project is a part of the activities of the Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe - DMCSEE. Drought in this area often results in significant economic, environmental, and social impacts. The significance of the impacts of drought on the agricultural sector is assessed taking into account the severity of the drought (magnitude and duration of the drought episode) and the vulnerability of the agricultural system. For that purpose we have developed a general method which can be used as a preliminary tool for assessing drought vulnerability in agriculture and that could be applied on the entire Southeastern Europe region. The approach was based on impact assessment and vulnerability model supported by geographic information system (GIS) software. We found out that factors influencing drought vulnerability were numerous, and the model application might depend on data availability. We have used appropriate and available digital data layers for climate, pedology, solar radiation, land use, irrigation infrastructure and other factors. The final product is a categorical map of agricultural drought vulnerability for the study area, which synthesizes a variety of data and serves as an indicator of areas deserving a detailed drought risk evaluation. It could aid regional decision makers in identifying appropriate mitigation and adaptation actions before the next drought event, lessen impacts of that event and allow sustainable development of the sector.

  8. Regulatory Guide on Conducting a Security Vulnerability Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ek, David R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-01-01

    This document will provide guidelines on conducting a security vulnerability assessment at a facility regulated by the Radiation Protection Centre. The guidelines provide a performance approach assess security effectiveness. The guidelines provide guidance for a review following the objectives outlined in IAEA NSS#11 for Category 1, 2, & 3 sources.

  9. Regulatory Guide on Conducting a Security Vulnerability Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document will provide guidelines on conducting a security vulnerability assessment at a facility regulated by the Radiation Protection Centre. The guidelines provide a performance approach assess security effectiveness. The guidelines provide guidance for a review following the objectives outlined in IAEA NSS#11 for Category 1, 2, & 3 sources.

  10. Integrated assessment of urban vulnerability and resilience. Case study: Targu Ocna town, Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grozavu, Adrian; Bănică, Alexandru

    2015-04-01

    Vulnerability assessment frequently emphasizes the internal fragility of a system in relation to a given hazard, when compared to similar systems or to a reference standard. This internal fragility, either biophysical or structural, may affect the ability to predict, to prepare for and cope with or to recover from the manifestation of a risk phenomenon. Thus, the vulnerability is highly related to resilience and adaptability. There is no single methodology for vulnerability and resilience analysis, their assessment can only be made by identifying and integrating indicators which are compatible with the analysis level and the geographic, economic and social features of a certain area. An integrated model of evaluating vulnerability and resilience capacity is being proposed in this paper for Targu Ocna, a small mining settlement in the Eastern Carpathians of Romania, that became in the last years a tourist town and acts within the surrounding territory as a dynamic local pole. Methodologically, the following steps and operations were considered: identifying potential hazards, identifying elements at risk, identifying proper indicators and integrating them in order to evaluate the general vulnerability and resilience. The inventory of elements at risk (the number of people potentially affected, residential or other functionalities buildings, roads and other infrastructure elements etc.) was made based on General Urban Plan, topographic maps (scale 1:5000), ortophotos from 2003 and 2008 and field mapping and researches. Further on, several vulnerability indicators were identified and included within the analytical approach: dependency ratio, income, quality of the habitat and technical urban facilities, environment quality showing differentiated sensitivity. Issues such as preparedness and preventive measures (priority areas within the risk prevention plans), coping ability (networks' geometry and connectivity, emergency utilities and services accessibility) and the

  11. Vulnerability

    OpenAIRE

    Issa, S.T.; Molen, van der, M.W.; Stel, Nora

    2015-01-01

    This chapter reviews the literature on vulnerability. Together with Chapter 3, that offers a literature review specifically focused on resilience, it lays the conceptual foundations for the empirical chapters in this edited volume. Vulnerability symbolizes the susceptibility of a certain system to the damage caused by a natural or man-made disaster and resilience is related to the capacity of this system to handle shocks and maintain its fundamental functions and structures. The operationaliz...

  12. Assessing vulnerability to drought: identifying underlying factors across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urquijo, Julia; Gonzalez Tánago, Itziar; Ballesteros, Mario; De Stefano, Lucia

    2015-04-01

    Drought is considered one of the most severe and damaging natural hazards in terms of people and sectors affected and associated losses. Drought is a normal and recurrent climatic phenomenon that occurs worldwide, although its spatial and temporal characteristics vary significantly among climates. In the case of Europe, in the last thirty years, the region has suffered several drought events that have caused estimated economic damages over a €100 billion and have affected almost 20% of its territory and population. In recent years, there has been a growing awareness among experts and authorities of the need to shift from a reactive crisis approach to a drought risk management approach, as well as of the importance of designing and implementing policies, strategies and plans at country and river basin levels to deal with drought. The identification of whom and what is vulnerable to drought is a central aspect of drought risk mitigation and planning and several authors agree that societal vulnerability often determines drought risk more than the actual precipitation shortfalls. The final aim of a drought vulnerability assessment is to identify the underlying sources of drought impact, in order to develop policy options that help to enhance coping capacity and therefore to prevent drought impact. This study identifies and maps factors underlying vulnerability to drought across Europe. The identification of factors influencing vulnerability starts from the analysis of past drought impacts in four European socioeconomic sectors. This analysis, along with an extensive literature review, led to the selection of vulnerability factors that are both relevant and adequate for the European context. Adopting the IPCC model, vulnerability factors were grouped to describe exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The aggregation of these components has resulted in the mapping of vulnerability to drought across Europe at NUTS02 level. Final results have been compared with

  13. Probabilistic seismic vulnerability and risk assessment of stone masonry structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abo El Ezz, Ahmad

    Earthquakes represent major natural hazards that regularly impact the built environment in seismic prone areas worldwide and cause considerable social and economic losses. The high losses incurred following the past destructive earthquakes promoted the need for assessment of the seismic vulnerability and risk of the existing buildings. Many historic buildings in the old urban centers in Eastern Canada such as Old Quebec City are built of stone masonry and represent un-measurable architectural and cultural heritage. These buildings were built to resist gravity loads only and generally offer poor resistance to lateral seismic loads. Seismic vulnerability assessment of stone masonry buildings is therefore the first necessary step in developing seismic retrofitting and pre-disaster mitigation plans. The objective of this study is to develop a set of probability-based analytical tools for efficient seismic vulnerability and uncertainty analysis of stone masonry buildings. A simplified probabilistic analytical methodology for vulnerability modelling of stone masonry building with systematic treatment of uncertainties throughout the modelling process is developed in the first part of this study. Building capacity curves are developed using a simplified mechanical model. A displacement based procedure is used to develop damage state fragility functions in terms of spectral displacement response based on drift thresholds of stone masonry walls. A simplified probabilistic seismic demand analysis is proposed to capture the combined uncertainty in capacity and demand on fragility functions. In the second part, a robust analytical procedure for the development of seismic hazard compatible fragility and vulnerability functions is proposed. The results are given by sets of seismic hazard compatible vulnerability functions in terms of structure-independent intensity measure (e.g. spectral acceleration) that can be used for seismic risk analysis. The procedure is very efficient for

  14. Assessing Terrorist Motivations for Attacking Critical "Chemical" Infrastructure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ackerman, G; Bale, J; Moran, K

    2004-12-14

    Certain types of infrastructure--critical infrastructure (CI)--play vital roles in underpinning our economy, security, and way of life. One particular type of CI--that relating to chemicals--constitutes both an important element of our nation's infrastructure and a particularly attractive set of potential targets. This is primarily because of the large quantities of toxic industrial chemicals (TICs) it employs in various operations and because of the essential economic functions it serves. This study attempts to minimize some of the ambiguities that presently impede chemical infrastructure threat assessments by providing new insight into the key motivational factors that affect terrorist organizations propensity to attack chemical facilities. Prepared as a companion piece to the Center for Nonproliferation Studies August 2004 study--''Assessing Terrorist Motivations for Attacking Critical Infrastructure''--it investigates three overarching research questions: (1) why do terrorists choose to attack chemical-related infrastructure over other targets; (2) what specific factors influence their target selection decisions concerning chemical facilities; and (3) which, if any, types of groups are most inclined to attack chemical infrastructure targets? The study involved a multi-pronged research design, which made use of four discrete investigative techniques to answer the above questions as comprehensively as possible. These include: (1) a review of terrorism and threat assessment literature to glean expert consensus regarding terrorist interest in targeting chemical facilities; (2) the preparation of case studies to help identify internal group factors and contextual influences that have played a significant role in leading some terrorist groups to attack chemical facilities; (3) an examination of data from the Critical Infrastructure Terrorist Incident Catalog (CrITIC) to further illuminate the nature of terrorist attacks against chemical

  15. Assessing the likely impacts of climate change on infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: In 2005, the Victorian Government contracted CSIRO, Maunsell Australia and Phillips Fox to undertake an overview assessment of the likely impacts of climate change on the State's infrastructure, establish the categories of infrastructure most at risk and outline opportunities for adaptation responses. The Government released the assessment in May 2007. Climate change poses a significant risk to infrastructure and its owners, managers and long-term operators. The work was undertaken on the basis that it should not be assumed that future climate and its impacts will simply be an extension of what has been experienced in the past. Major infrastructure items have long useful life spans (20-100 years). A bridge built today is expected to still be in use in tens, if not hundreds, of years. This means that recognition of likely climate change impacts and appropriate adaptation measures should occur now. Recognition of the risks associated with climate change is a valuable first step towards better planning of new infrastructure investments and reducing potential damage to existing infrastructure.lnfrastructure types examined were water, power, telecommunications, transport and buildings. The climate change projections used in this report are based on CSIRO climate modelling, supported by findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climatic and other variables considered were temperature, rainfall, available moisture, humidity, winds, fire-weather frequency and intensity, solar radiation levels and sea-level rise. For each climate change variable identified, we described a worst-case impact for low and high climate change projections for the years 2030 and 2070. The assessment was made on the basis of 'business as usual' with no adaptation responses to climate change. The report also details the current governance structures associated with each infrastructure type. Overall, the report assessed the likely impact of climate change on

  16. Vulnerability of mangroves to sea level rise in Qatar: Assessment and identification of vulnerable mangroves areas

    OpenAIRE

    Shehadi, Mohammad Ahmad

    2015-01-01

    Qatar is one of few countries in Arabian Gulf where mangrove ecosystem exist. They are essential number of ecosystem function; however, this valuable ecosystem is threatened by both anthropogenic and global climatic factors. This study is aimed at investigating the vulnerability of mangroves resulting from the rise in sea level. Remote sensing, GIS and soil analysis were used to achieve this assessment. Four main research questions including the change in mangrove area over tim...

  17. Assessing and managing freshwater ecosystems vulnerable to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Birge, Hannah E.; Drakare, Stina; McKie, Brendan G.; Johnson, Richard K.

    2014-01-01

    Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.

  18. Development of a method for assessing flood vulnerability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connor, R F; Hiroki, K

    2005-01-01

    Over the past few decades, a growing number of studies have been conducted on the mechanisms responsible for climate change and the elaboration of future climate scenarios. More recently, studies have emerged examining the potential effects of climate change on human societies, including how variations in hydrological regimes impact water resources management. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's third assessment report, climate change will lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle, resulting in greater variability in precipitation patterns and an increase in the intensity and frequency of severe storms and other extreme events. In other words, climate change will likely increase the risks of flooding in many areas. Structural and non-structural countermeasures are available to reduce flood vulnerability, but implementing new measures can be a lengthy process requiring political and financial support. In order to help guide such policy decisions, a method for assessing flood vulnerability due to climate change is proposed. In this preliminary study, multivariate analysis has been used to develop a Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI), which allows for a comparative analysis of flood vulnerability between different basins. Once fully developed, the FVI will also allow users to identify the main factors responsible for a basin's vulnerability, making it a valuable tool to assist in priority setting within decision-making processes. PMID:15918359

  19. Risk Assessment of Critical Communication Infrastructure in Railways in Norway

    OpenAIRE

    Johnsen, Stig O.; Veen, Mona

    2013-01-01

    This paper discusses the significant findings of a risk assessment of infrastructure used in emergency communication by railways in Norway. The initial risk assessment was performed in 2008 and we have reviewed the results in 2010, documenting mitigating actions and their effect. The development of safety and security culture has also been evaluated. The risk assessment was based on a socio-technical approach, which considers technical, organizational and human factors. Action research was us...

  20. Assessing vulnerability to climate change and socioeconomic stressors in the Reef Islands group, Solomon Islands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birk, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    This article assesses the vulnerability to climatic and socioeconomic stresses in the Reef Islands, Solomon Islands, an atoll island group in the Southwest Pacific. Climate change and the associated sea-level rise are often seen as the most pressing challenges to atoll communities, yet this study...... infrastructure, economic marginalization and weak governance of Solomon Islands. Findings suggest that some of these non-climatic stresses are currently – and in the short term – more important determinants of local vulnerability than climate change and sea-level rise. Certainly, these stresses are likely...... to be exacerbated by different elements of climate change in the short, medium and long term, but generally speaking climate change does not appear to be a major driver of the current changes in the islands. On the basis of these observations, the possible adaptation options, relevant to different time scales...

  1. Potential of 3D City Models to assess flood vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröter, Kai; Bochow, Mathias; Schüttig, Martin; Nagel, Claus; Ross, Lutz; Kreibich, Heidi

    2016-04-01

    Vulnerability, as the product of exposure and susceptibility, is a key factor of the flood risk equation. Furthermore, the estimation of flood loss is very sensitive to the choice of the vulnerability model. Still, in contrast to elaborate hazard simulations, vulnerability is often considered in a simplified manner concerning the spatial resolution and geo-location of exposed objects as well as the susceptibility of these objects at risk. Usually, area specific potential flood loss is quantified on the level of aggregated land-use classes, and both hazard intensity and resistance characteristics of affected objects are represented in highly simplified terms. We investigate the potential of 3D City Models and spatial features derived from remote sensing data to improve the differentiation of vulnerability in flood risk assessment. 3D City Models are based on CityGML, an application scheme of the Geography Markup Language (GML), which represents the 3D geometry, 3D topology, semantics and appearance of objects on different levels of detail. As such, 3D City Models offer detailed spatial information which is useful to describe the exposure and to characterize the susceptibility of residential buildings at risk. This information is further consolidated with spatial features of the building stock derived from remote sensing data. Using this database a spatially detailed flood vulnerability model is developed by means of data-mining. Empirical flood damage data are used to derive and to validate flood susceptibility models for individual objects. We present first results from a prototype application in the city of Dresden, Germany. The vulnerability modeling based on 3D City Models and remote sensing data is compared i) to the generally accepted good engineering practice based on area specific loss potential and ii) to a highly detailed representation of flood vulnerability based on a building typology using urban structure types. Comparisons are drawn in terms of

  2. Seismic and wind vulnerability assessment for the GAR-13 global risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Yamín Lacouture, Luis Eduardo; Hurtado Chaparro, Alvaro Ivan; Barbat Barbat, Horia Alejandro; Cardona Arboleda, Omar Dario

    2014-01-01

    A general methodology to evaluate vulnerability functions suitable for a probabilistic global risk assessment is proposed. The methodology is partially based in the methodological approach of the Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology (Hazus) developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The vulnerability assessment process considers the resolution, information and limitations established for both the hazard and exposure models adopted. Seismic and wind vulnerability function...

  3. Assessing Vulnerability of Women to Indoor Air Pollution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abha Lakshmi Singh

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study an attempt has been made to identify the factors that have contributed to vulnerability of women to indoor air pollution and suggests suitable measures for its intervention. The study is based on primary sources of data collected with the help of questionnaire interviews from a sample of 2,101 women respondents belonging from different income groups, from Aligarh city. Information regarding their cooking conditions (4 factors, cooking related exposures (4 factors, housing (3 factors and health conditions (3 factors were collected. Total 14 factors linked with women vulnerability to indoor air pollution were identified. Indoor air pollutants were monitored in the cooking area and with different fuel usages to assess the indoor air quality. The results show that women are vulnerable to indoor air pollution but there was difference in the levels of vulnerability among the women belonging to different income groups. It was the lower income women who were most vulnerable because they were using biomass fuels/chulhas, cooking in a multipurpose room, spending long hours in kitchen, they were more exposed to smoke, heat, pollutants and the conditions were exacerbated because they were living in sub-standard housing, in one room leading to congestion/crowding and with no ventilation. They were suffering most from various problems and specific diseases like respiratory infections (ALRI, AURI, COPD, asthma, pulmonary tuberculosis, perinatal mortality, low birth weight, cataract and eye irritation associated with indoor air pollution.

  4. Assessment of Socioeconomic Vulnerability to Floods in the Bâsca Chiojdului Catchment Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    REMUS PRĂVĂLIE

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological risk phenomena such as floods are among the most costly natural disasters worldwide, effects consisting of socioeconomic damages and deaths. The Bâsca Chiojdului catchment area, by its morphometric and hydrographic peculiarities, is prone to generate these hydrological risk phenomena, so there is a high vulnerability in the socioeconomic elements. This paper is focused on the identification of the main socioeconomic elements vulnerable to hydrological risk phenomena such as floods, based on the assessment of their manifestation potential. Thus, following the delimitation of areas with the highest flood occurrence potential (susceptibility to floods, major socioeconomic factors existing in the basin, considering human settlements (constructions, transport infrastructure, and agricultural areas (the most important category, were superimposed. Results showed a high vulnerability for all three exposed socioeconomic elements especially in valley sectors, of which household structures were the most vulnerable, given both their importance and the high number of areas highly exposed to floods (approximately 2,500 houses and outbuildings, out of a total of about 10,250, intersect the most susceptible area to floods in the study area.

  5. Development of an Automated Security Risk Assessment Methodology Tool for Critical Infrastructures.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, Calvin D.; Roehrig, Nathaniel S.; Torres, Teresa M.

    2008-12-01

    This document presents the security automated Risk Assessment Methodology (RAM) prototype tool developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). This work leverages SNL's capabilities and skills in security risk analysis and the development of vulnerability assessment/risk assessment methodologies to develop an automated prototype security RAM tool for critical infrastructures (RAM-CITM). The prototype automated RAM tool provides a user-friendly, systematic, and comprehensive risk-based tool to assist CI sector and security professionals in assessing and managing security risk from malevolent threats. The current tool is structured on the basic RAM framework developed by SNL. It is envisioned that this prototype tool will be adapted to meet the requirements of different CI sectors and thereby provide additional capabilities.

  6. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    A. Gaddi and P. Tropea

    2012-01-01

    The CMS Infrastructures teams are preparing for the LS1 activities. A long list of maintenance, consolidation and upgrade projects for CMS Infrastructures is on the table and is being discussed among Technical Coordination and sub-detector representatives. Apart from the activities concerning the cooling infrastructures (see below), two main projects have started: the refurbishment of the SX5 building, from storage area to RP storage and Muon stations laboratory; and the procurement of a new dry-gas (nitrogen and dry air) plant for inner detector flushing. We briefly present here the work done on the first item, leaving the second one for the next CMS Bulletin issue. The SX5 building is entering its third era, from main assembly building for CMS from 2000 to 2007, to storage building from 2008 to 2012, to RP storage and Muon laboratory during LS1 and beyond. A wall of concrete blocks has been erected to limit the RP zone, while the rest of the surface has been split between the ME1/1 and the CSC/DT laborat...

  7. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    A. Gaddi and P. Tropea

    2011-01-01

    Most of the work relating to Infrastructure has been concentrated in the new CSC and RPC manufactory at building 904, on the Prevessin site. Brand new gas distribution, powering and HVAC infrastructures are being deployed and the production of the first CSC chambers has started. Other activities at the CMS site concern the installation of a new small crane bridge in the Cooling technical room in USC55, in order to facilitate the intervention of the maintenance team in case of major failures of the chilled water pumping units. The laser barrack in USC55 has been also the object of a study, requested by the ECAL community, for the new laser system that shall be delivered in few months. In addition, ordinary maintenance works have been performed during the short machine stops on all the main infrastructures at Point 5 and in preparation to the Year-End Technical Stop (YETS), when most of the systems will be carefully inspected in order to ensure a smooth running through the crucial year 2012. After the incide...

  8. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    A.Gaddi

    2011-01-01

    Between the end of March to June 2011, there has been no detector downtime during proton fills due to CMS Infrastructures failures. This exceptional performance is a clear sign of the high quality work done by the CMS Infrastructures unit and its supporting teams. Powering infrastructure At the end of March, the EN/EL group observed a problem with the CMS 48 V system. The problem was a lack of isolation between the negative (return) terminal and earth. Although at that moment we were not seeing any loss of functionality, in the long term it would have led to severe disruption to the CMS power system. The 48 V system is critical to the operation of CMS: in addition to feeding the anti-panic lights, essential for the safety of the underground areas, it powers all the PLCs (Twidos) that control AC power to the racks and front-end electronics of CMS. A failure of the 48 V system would bring down the whole detector and lead to evacuation of the cavern. EN/EL technicians have made an accurate search of the fault, ...

  9. Interpreting transnational infrastructure vulnerability: European blackout and the historical dynamics of transnational electricity governance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recent transnational blackouts exposed two radically opposed interpretations of Europe's electricity infrastructure, which inform recent and ongoing negotiations on transnational electricity governance. To EU policy makers such blackouts revealed the fragility of Europe's power grids and the need of a more centralized form of governance, thus legitimizing recent EU interventions. Yet to power sector spokespersons, these events confirmed the reliability of transnational power grids and the traditional decentralized governance model: the disturbances were quickly contained and repaired. This paper inquires the historic legacies at work in these conflicting interpretations and associated transnational governance preferences. It traces the power sector's interpretation to its building of a secure transnational power grid from the 1950s through the era of neoliberalization. Next it places the EU interpretation and associated policy measures against the historical record of EU attempts at transnational infrastructure governance. Uncovering the historical roots and embedding of both interpretations, we conclude that their divergence is of a surprisingly recent date and relates to the current era of security thinking. Finally we recommend transnational, interpretative, and historical analysis to the field of critical infrastructure studies.

  10. Spatial vulnerability assessments by regression kriging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pásztor, László; Laborczi, Annamária; Takács, Katalin; Szatmári, Gábor

    2016-04-01

    information representing IEW or GRP forming environmental factors were taken into account to support the spatial inference of the locally experienced IEW frequency and measured GRP values respectively. An efficient spatial prediction methodology was applied to construct reliable maps, namely regression kriging (RK) using spatially exhaustive auxiliary data on soil, geology, topography, land use and climate. RK divides the spatial inference into two parts. Firstly the deterministic component of the target variable is determined by a regression model. The residuals of the multiple linear regression analysis represent the spatially varying but dependent stochastic component, which are interpolated by kriging. The final map is the sum of the two component predictions. Application of RK also provides the possibility of inherent accuracy assessment. The resulting maps are characterized by global and local measures of its accuracy. Additionally the method enables interval estimation for spatial extension of the areas of predefined risk categories. All of these outputs provide useful contribution to spatial planning, action planning and decision making. Acknowledgement: Our work was partly supported by the Hungarian National Scientific Research Foundation (OTKA, Grant No. K105167).

  11. Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moss, Richard H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Blohm, Andrew [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Delgado, Alison [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Henriques, Justin J. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Malone, Elizabeth L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-02-01

    U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Departments of Energy and Defense. The paper provides a framework of steps for climate vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. In a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change.

  12. Assessment of Seismic Vulnerability of a Historical Masonry Building

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelo Garofano

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available A multidisciplinary approach for assessing the seismic vulnerability of heritage masonry buildings is described throughout the paper. The procedure is applied to a specific case study that represents a very common typology of masonry building in Italy. The seismic vulnerability of the examined building was assessed after the following: (a historical investigation about the building and the surrounding area, (b detailed geometrical relieves, (c identification of materials by means of surveys and literature indications, (d dynamic in-situ tests, (e foundation soil characterization, (f dynamic identification of the structure by means of a refined Finite Element (FE model. After these steps, the FE model was used to assess the safety level of the building by means of non-linear static analyses according to the provisions of Eurocode 8 and estimate of the q-factor. Some parametric studies were also carried out by means of both linear dynamic and non-linear static analyses.

  13. Coastal Hazard Vulnerability Assessment: A Case Study of Erosion and Flooding on Herschel Island, Yukon Territory, Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Radosavljevic, Boris; Lantuit, Hugues; Pollard, Wayne; Overduin, Paul; Couture, N. J.; Sachs, Torsten; Helm, Veit; Fritz, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Coastal infrastructure, cultural, and archeological sites are increasingly vulnerable to erosion and flooding along permafrost coasts. Amplified warming of the Arctic, sea level rise, lengthening of the open water period, and a predicted increase in frequency of major storms compound these threats. Mitigation necessitates decision-making tools at an appropriate scale. We present a study of coastal erosion combining it with a flooding risk assessment for the culturally important historic settl...

  14. Automating Flood Hazard Mapping Methods for Near Real-time Storm Surge Inundation and Vulnerability Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Gallagher, D.

    2015-12-01

    Storm surge has enough destructive power to damage buildings and infrastructure, erode beaches, and threaten human life across large geographic areas, hence posing the greatest threat of all the hurricane hazards. The United States Gulf of Mexico has proven vulnerable to hurricanes as it has been hit by some of the most destructive hurricanes on record. With projected rises in sea level and increases in hurricane activity, there is a need to better understand the associated risks for disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response. GIS has become a critical tool in enhancing disaster planning, risk assessment, and emergency response by communicating spatial information through a multi-layer approach. However, there is a need for a near real-time method of identifying areas with a high risk of being impacted by storm surge. Research was conducted alongside Baron, a private industry weather enterprise, to facilitate automated modeling and visualization of storm surge inundation and vulnerability on a near real-time basis. This research successfully automated current flood hazard mapping techniques using a GIS framework written in a Python programming environment, and displayed resulting data through an Application Program Interface (API). Data used for this methodology included high resolution topography, NOAA Probabilistic Surge model outputs parsed from Rich Site Summary (RSS) feeds, and the NOAA Census tract level Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI). The development process required extensive data processing and management to provide high resolution visualizations of potential flooding and population vulnerability in a timely manner. The accuracy of the developed methodology was assessed using Hurricane Isaac as a case study, which through a USGS and NOAA partnership, contained ample data for statistical analysis. This research successfully created a fully automated, near real-time method for mapping high resolution storm surge inundation and vulnerability for the

  15. Energy Vulnerability Assessment for the US Pacific Islands. Technical Appendix 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The study, Energy Vulnerability Assessment of the US Pacific Islands, was mandated by the Congress of the United States as stated in House Resolution 776-220 of 1992, Section 1406. The resolution states that the US Secretary of Energy shall conduct a study of the implications of the unique vulnerabilities of the insular areas to an oil supply disruption. Such study shall outline how the insular areas shall gain access to vital oil supplies during times of national emergency. The resolution defines insular areas as the US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and Palau. The US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are not included in this report. The US Department of Energy (USDOE) has broadened the scope of the study contained in the House Resolution to include emergency preparedness and response strategies which would reduce vulnerability to an oil supply disruption as well as steps to ameliorate adverse economic consequences. This includes a review of alternative energy technologies with respect to their potential for reducing dependence on imported petroleum. USDOE has outlined the four tasks of the energy vulnerability assessment as the following: (1) for each island, determine crude oil and refined product demand/supply, and characterize energy and economic infrastructure; (2) forecast global and regional oil trade flow patterns, energy demand/supply, and economic activities; (3) formulate oil supply disruption scenarios and ascertain the general and unique vulnerabilities of these islands to oil supply disruptions; and (4) outline emergency preparedness and response options to secure oil supplies in the short run, and reduce dependence on imported oil in the longer term

  16. Energy Vulnerability Assessment for the US Pacific Islands. Technical Appendix 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fesharaki, F.; Rizer, J.P.; Greer, L.S.

    1994-05-01

    The study, Energy Vulnerability Assessment of the US Pacific Islands, was mandated by the Congress of the United States as stated in House Resolution 776-220 of 1992, Section 1406. The resolution states that the US Secretary of Energy shall conduct a study of the implications of the unique vulnerabilities of the insular areas to an oil supply disruption. Such study shall outline how the insular areas shall gain access to vital oil supplies during times of national emergency. The resolution defines insular areas as the US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and Palau. The US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are not included in this report. The US Department of Energy (USDOE) has broadened the scope of the study contained in the House Resolution to include emergency preparedness and response strategies which would reduce vulnerability to an oil supply disruption as well as steps to ameliorate adverse economic consequences. This includes a review of alternative energy technologies with respect to their potential for reducing dependence on imported petroleum. USDOE has outlined the four tasks of the energy vulnerability assessment as the following: (1) for each island, determine crude oil and refined product demand/supply, and characterize energy and economic infrastructure; (2) forecast global and regional oil trade flow patterns, energy demand/supply, and economic activities; (3) formulate oil supply disruption scenarios and ascertain the general and unique vulnerabilities of these islands to oil supply disruptions; and (4) outline emergency preparedness and response options to secure oil supplies in the short run, and reduce dependence on imported oil in the longer term.

  17. Vulnerability of coastal infrastructure in the Arctic: A focus on the historic settlement on Herschel Island

    OpenAIRE

    Radosavljevic, Boris; Lantuit, Hugues; Fritz, Michael; Overduin, Paul; Krautblatter, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Herschel Island has a long history of human habitation by indigenous peoples, and whalers who came to the island at the end of the 19th century. Their traces include many archeological sites, and some of the oldest standing buildings in the Yukon, built during the whaling era. The island has been a territorial park since 1987, and it is a candidate to become a UNESCO World Heritage Site. The historic settlement, airstrip, and park infrastructure are located on Simpson Point, a narrow gravelly...

  18. Geospatial decision support framework for critical infrastructure interdependency assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Chung Yan

    Critical infrastructures, such as telecommunications, energy, banking and finance, transportation, water systems and emergency services are the foundations of modern society. There is a heavy dependence on critical infrastructures at multiple levels within the supply chain of any good or service. Any disruptions in the supply chain may cause profound cascading effect to other critical infrastructures. A 1997 report by the President's Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection states that a serious interruption in freight rail service would bring the coal mining industry to a halt within approximately two weeks and the availability of electric power could be reduced in a matter of one to two months. Therefore, this research aimed at representing and assessing the interdependencies between coal supply, transportation and energy production. A proposed geospatial decision support framework was established and applied to analyze interdependency related disruption impact. By utilizing the data warehousing approach, geospatial and non-geospatial data were retrieved, integrated and analyzed based on the transportation model and geospatial disruption analysis developed in the research. The results showed that by utilizing this framework, disruption impacts can be estimated at various levels (e.g., power plant, county, state, etc.) for preventative or emergency response efforts. The information derived from the framework can be used for data mining analysis (e.g., assessing transportation mode usages; finding alternative coal suppliers, etc.).

  19. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Idaho National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christopher P. Ischay; Ernest L. Fossum; Polly C. Buotte; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Alexander Peterson

    2014-10-01

    The University of Idaho (UI) was asked to participate in the development of a climate change vulnerability assessment for Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This report describes the outcome of that assessment. The climate change happening now, due in large part to human activities, is expected to continue in the future. UI and INL used a common framework for assessing vulnerability that considers exposure (future climate change), sensitivity (system or component responses to climate), impact (exposure combined with sensitivity), and adaptive capacity (capability of INL to modify operations to minimize climate change impacts) to assess vulnerability. Analyses of climate change (exposure) revealed that warming that is ongoing at INL will continue in the coming decades, with increased warming in later decades and under scenarios of greater greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of precipitation are more uncertain, with multi model means exhibiting somewhat wetter conditions and more wet days per year. Additional impacts relevant to INL include estimates of more burned area and increased evaporation and transpiration, leading to reduced soil moisture and plant growth.

  20. Preliminary regulatory assessment of nuclear power plants vulnerabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preliminary attempts to develop models for nuclear regulatory vulnerability assessment of nuclear power plants are presented. Development of the philosophy and computer tools could be new and important insight for management of nuclear operators and nuclear regulatory bodies who face difficult questions about how to assess the vulnerability of nuclear power plants and other nuclear facilities to external and internal threats. In the situation where different and hidden threat sources are dispersed throughout the world, the assessment of security and safe operation of nuclear power plants is very important. Capability to evaluate plant vulnerability to different kinds of threats, like human and natural occurrences and terrorist attacks and preparation of emergency response plans and estimation of costs are of vital importance for assurance of national security. On the basis of such vital insights, nuclear operators and nuclear regulatory bodies could plan and optimise changes in oversight procedures, organisations, equipment, hardware and software to reduce risks taking into account security and safety of nuclear power plants operation, budget, manpower, and other limitations. Initial qualitative estimations of adapted assessments for nuclear applications are shortly presented. (author)

  1. Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, R. S.

    2009-12-01

    A volcanic hazard is any phenomenon that threatens communities . These hazards include volcanic events like pyroclastic flows, explosions, ash fall and lavas, and secondary effects such as lahars and landslides. Volcanic hazards are described by the physical characteristics of the phenomena, by the assessment of the areas that they are likely to affect and by the magnitude-dependent return period of events. Volcanic hazard maps are generated by mapping past volcanic events and by modelling the hazardous processes. Both these methods have their strengths and limitations and a robust map should use both approaches in combination. Past records, studied through stratigraphy, the distribution of deposits and age dating, are typically incomplete and may be biased. Very significant volcanic hazards, such as surge clouds and volcanic blasts, are not well-preserved in the geological record for example. Models of volcanic processes are very useful to help identify hazardous areas that do not have any geological evidence. They are, however, limited by simplifications and incomplete understanding of the physics. Many practical volcanic hazards mapping tools are also very empirical. Hazards maps are typically abstracted into hazards zones maps, which are some times called threat or risk maps. Their aim is to identify areas at high levels of threat and the boundaries between zones may take account of other factors such as roads, escape routes during evacuation, infrastructure. These boundaries may change with time due to new knowledge on the hazards or changes in volcanic activity levels. Alternatively they may remain static but implications of the zones may change as volcanic activity changes. Zone maps are used for planning purposes and for management of volcanic crises. Volcanic hazards maps are depictions of the likelihood of future volcanic phenomena affecting places and people. Volcanic phenomena are naturally variable, often complex and not fully understood. There are

  2. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    A. Gaddi

    2012-01-01

    The CMS Infrastructures teams are constantly ensuring the smooth operation of the different services during this critical period when the detector is taking data at full speed. A single failure would spoil hours of high luminosity beam and everything is put in place to avoid such an eventuality. In the meantime however, the fast approaching LS1 requires that we take a look at the various activities to take place from the end of the year onwards. The list of infrastructures consolidation and upgrade tasks is already long and will touch all the services (cooling, gas, inertion, powering, etc.). The definitive list will be available just before the LS1 start. One activity performed by the CMS cooling team that is worth mentioning is the maintenance of the cooling circuits at the CMS Electronics Integration Centre (EIC) at building 904. The old chiller has been replaced by a three-units cooling plant that also serves the HVAC system for the new CSC and RPC factories. The commissioning of this new plant has tak...

  3. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    Andrea Gaddi

    2010-01-01

    In addition to the intense campaign of replacement of the leaky bushing on the Endcap circuits, other important activities have also been completed, with the aim of enhancing the overall reliability of the cooling infrastructures at CMS. Remaining with the Endcap circuit, the regulating valve that supplies cold water to the primary side of the circuit heat-exchanger, is not well adapted in flow capability and a new part has been ordered, to be installed during a stop of LHC. The instrumentation monitoring of the refilling rate of the circuits has been enhanced and we can now detect leaks as small as 0.5 cc/sec, on circuits that have nominal flow rates of some 20 litres/sec. Another activity starting now that the technical stop is over is the collection of spare parts that are difficult to find on the market. These will be stored at P5 with the aim of reducing down-time in case of component failure. Concerning the ventilation infrastructures, it has been noticed that in winter time the relative humidity leve...

  4. A New Method for Reclamation Planning in Coastal Areas Based on Vulnerability Assessment to Typhoon Storm Surge Inundation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, S.

    2015-12-01

    Rapid urban expansion in mega-cities (cities with populations over 10 million) leads to increased land demand and vulnerability to hazards as often significant numbers of people are economically and social disadvantaged. An effective way to create new flat land for further development is land reclamation and this has reached 511.71 km2 in the period of 1990 - 2009 along the Shanghai coast. This, in turn, leads to a potential increase in the vulnerability of the new coastal area to natural hazards. This is typically represented by typhoon storms that have the potential to be the most destructive natural hazard and therefore pose a significant threat to both infrastructure and livelihood in Shanghai. Due to insufficient knowledge of vulnerability of land use to typhoon storms and current planning, the reclaimed land is becoming one of the most vulnerable parts of the coastal low-land. While it is tempting to claim there is an increasing vulnerability to typhoon-inundation in Shanghai, this must be weighed against the socio-political response, where it is likely that city authorities will undertake rational land use planning to protect the reclamation from the inundation, sea level rise, and ground subsidence. Therefore, this research present a new method for reclamation planning based on vulnerability assessment to typhoon- inundation. First, MIKE21 was used to simulate the inundation scenario of two typhoon events in 1997 and 2007 respectively. Then, the vulnerability of 7 land use types with a set of hazard-proxies to these two typhoon inundations was assessed and verified by a new stage-damage curve system. Based on the above vulnerability assessment, this research will provide a planning tool for reclamation along Shanghai coastal area. This work is part of a larger study on the response of vulnerability to land use and land cover change.

  5. Web application for simplified seismic vulnerability assessment of masonry buildings

    OpenAIRE

    Fabijan, Nejc

    2013-01-01

    A web-based application for a simplified assessment of seismic vulnerability of masonry buildings is described in the thesis. In the first part, a brief overview of earthquake engineering is given. Follow a description of seismic response of masonry buildings and the overview of the construction types of such buildings. The last chapter of theoretical part of the thesis deals with pros and cons of the web applications and with a brief general description of the development of web applications...

  6. An Assessment of the radiological vulnerability for Spanish soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A methodology is presented to assess the radiological vulnerability of soils, based exclusively on their pedagogical properties. The radiological vulnerability defined as the potential capacity of soils to fix or transfer deposited radiocaesium and radiostrontium to plants, is represented in terms of vulnerability indexes. Two pathways are considered, the external irradiation and their transfer through the food chain, where the top horizon and a critical depth of 60 cm is taken into account, respectively, Partial vulnerability indexes are considered for each pathway, which allows a qualitative prediction of the behaviour of the contaminants in soils Global indexes have been obtained as the sum of the partial indexes. The methodology has been applied and validated using a data base consisting of more than 2000 soil profiles selected from all over Spain. This included a pedagogical characterisation and normalisation of the different soil profiles. Results have been obtained for individual soil profiles and with the aid of a GIS, the distribution of the partial and global indexes have been presented for the most representative soil types. (Author)

  7. Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment of House Constructions in Himalayas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ila Gupta,

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available The entire Himalayan range is highly prone to earthquake s and the latest Kashmir earthquake (October 08, 2005 has once again drawn our attention to the highly vulnerable Himalayan settlements. Narcndranagar block of the Himalayan state of Uttaranchal lies in seismic zone IV of the seismic zoning map of India. Like in other hilly areas Narendranagar block also witnessed the traditional practice of house construction being replaced by modern construction materials and practices without the knowledge of earthquake resistant techniques rendering the present buildings more vulnerable to earthquakes. The objective of this paper is to assess the vulnerability of the buildings so that corrective measures can be taken to minimize the destruction during future earthquakes. Types of buildings observed in the entire block with different combinations of materials and their earthquake behaviours are explained. The existing structures are grouped into vulnerability categories Vl , V2 and V3 as per the descriptions provided in the MSK (Medvedev - Sponheaer - Karnik Intensity Scale. Damage estimation for a hypothetical earthquake is carried out for the Narcndranagar block. Conclusions and recommendations suggesting use of such studies in all earth quake prone areas of the Trans Himalayan region arc provided.

  8. EVALUATION OF VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT IN SYSTEM FROM HACKERS IN CYBER SECURITY

    OpenAIRE

    S. Suma Christal Mary

    2010-01-01

    Vulnerability is very essential in cyber security related mechanisms. The usage of this vulnerability is to identify the attacks over the cyber space system. This term become increased the challenges in cyberspace system in large areas. Interdependencies between computer communication system and the physical infrastructure also become more complex as information technologies are further integrated into devices and networks. Vulnerability causes due to ethical hacking, Trojan attacks, logical ...

  9. A regional scale landslide vulnerability assessment using a First Order Second Moment approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liliana Ciurean, Roxana; Zumpano, Veronica; Micu, Mihai; Glade, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    As risk is being created alongside economic growth, reducing vulnerability to local infrastructure, housing and livelihoods of communities affected by natural hazards constitutes a central issue worldwide. In recent years, quantitative risk assessment approaches have gained traction as issues related with the limited availability and resolution of data, model constrains and reliability of the analysis outcomes are recognized. This paper explores the applicability of a methodology for landslide vulnerability assessment based on a First Order Second Moment (FOSM) approach in a case study area where information about the intensity of landslides and resistance of the elements at risk to withstand the landslide action of a given degree of severity is limited. The FOSM approach provides analytical approximations for the mean and standard deviation of a parameter of interest as a function of the mean and standard deviations of the various input factors, and their correlations. A quantitative model is proposed to estimate the vulnerability of the exposed transportation infrastructure and built-up areas to shallow and medium-seated landslides as a function of their intensity and the characteristics of the elements at risk. The methodology is tested in Buzău County, Romania, a region where communities and the environment are severely affected by recurrent mass movement processes. The main advantages and limitations of the proposed methodology are outlined and recommendations for future improvements are given. The results of the proposed procedure can be directly used in a quantitative risk analysis and contribute to a better informed decision-making in the prescribed area of investigation.

  10. 76 FR 55673 - Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-08

    ... AGENCY Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach... period for the draft documents titled, Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready... Partnership (EPA/600/R-11/ 058a) and Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready...

  11. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    Andrea Gaddi

    2010-01-01

    During the last six months, the main activity on the cooling circuit has essentially been preventive maintenance. At each short machine technical stop, a water sample is extracted out of every cooling circuit to measure the induced radioactivity. Soon after, a visual check of the whole detector cooling network is done, looking for water leaks in sensitive locations. Depending on sub-system availability, the main water filters are replaced; the old ones are inspected and sent to the CERN metallurgical lab in case of suspicious sediments. For the coming winter technical stop, a number of corrective maintenance activities and infrastructure consolidation work-packages are foreseen. A few faulty valves, found on the muon system cooling circuit, will be replaced; the cooling gauges for TOTEM and CASTOR, in the CMS Forward region, will be either changed or shielded against the magnetic stray field. The demineralizer cartridges will be replaced as well. New instrumentation will also be installed in the SCX5 PC farm ...

  12. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    A. Gaddi and P. Tropea

    2013-01-01

      Most of the CMS infrastructures at P5 will go through a heavy consolidation-work period during LS1. All systems, from the cryogenic plant of the superconducting magnet to the rack powering in the USC55 counting rooms, from the cooling circuits to the gas distribution, will undergo consolidation work. As announced in the last issue of the CMS Bulletin, we present here one of the consolidation projects of LS1: the installation of a new dry-gas plant for inner detectors inertion. So far the oxygen and humidity suppression inside the CMS Tracker and Pixel volumes were assured by flushing dry nitrogen gas evaporated from a large liquid nitrogen tank. For technical reasons, the maximum flow is limited to less than 100 m3/h and the cost of refilling the tank every two weeks with liquid nitrogen is quite substantial. The new dry-gas plant will supply up to 400 m3/h of dry nitrogen (or the same flow of dry air, during shut-downs) with a comparatively minimal operation cost. It has been evaluated that the...

  13. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    Andrea Gaddi

    With all the technical services running, the attention has moved toward the next shutdown that will be spent to perform those modifications needed to enhance the reliability of CMS Infrastructures. Just to give an example for the cooling circuit, a set of re-circulating bypasses will be installed into the TS/CV area to limit the pressure surge when a circuit is partially shut-off. This problem has affected especially the Endcap Muon cooling circuit in the past. Also the ventilation of the UXC55 has to be revisited, allowing the automatic switching to full extraction in case of magnet quench. (Normally 90% of the cavern air is re-circulated by the ventilation system.) Minor modifications will concern the gas distribution, while the DSS action-matrix has to be refined according to the experience gained with operating the detector for a while. On the powering side, some LV power lines have been doubled and the final schematics of the UPS coverage for the counting rooms have been released. The most relevant inte...

  14. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    A. Gaddi

    The long winter shut-down allows for modifications that will improve the reliability of the detector infrastructures at P5. The annual maintenance of detector services is taking place as well. This means a full stop of water-cooling circuits from November 24th with a gradual restart from mid January 09. The annual maintenance service includes the cleaning of the two SF5 cooling towers, service of the chiller plants on the surface, and the cryogenic plant serving the CMS Magnet. In addition, the overall site power is reduced from 8MW to 2MW, compatible with the switchover to the Swiss power network in winter. Full power will be available again from end of January. Among the modification works planned, the Low Voltage cabinets are being refurbished; doubling the cable sections and replacing the 40A circuit breakers with 60A types. This will reduce the overheating that has been experienced. Moreover, two new LV transformers will be bought and pre-cabled in order to assure a quick swap in case of failure of any...

  15. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    Andrea Gaddi.

    The various water-cooling circuits ran smoothly over the summer. The overall performance of the cooling system is satisfactory, even if some improvements are possible, concerning the endcap water-cooling and the C6F14 circuits. In particular for the endcap cooling circuit, we aim to lower the water temperature, to provide more margin for RPC detectors. An expert-on-call piquet has been established during the summer global run, assuring the continuous supervision of the installations. An effort has been made to collect and harmonize the existing documentation on the cooling infrastructures at P5. The last six months have seen minor modifications to the electrical power network at P5. Among these, the racks in USC55 for the Tracker and Sniffer systems, which are backed up by the diesel generator in case of power outage, have been equipped with new control boxes to allow a remote restart. Other interventions have concerned the supply of assured power to those installations that are essential for CMS to run eff...

  16. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    A. Gaddi

    2011-01-01

    During the last winter technical stop, a number of corrective maintenance activities and infrastructure consolidation work-packages were completed. On the surface, the site cooling facility has passed the annual maintenance process that includes the cleaning of the two evaporative cooling towers, the maintenance of the chiller units and the safety checks on the software controls. In parallel, CMS teams, reinforced by PH-DT group personnel, have worked to shield the cooling gauges for TOTEM and CASTOR against the magnetic stray field in the CMS Forward region, to add labels to almost all the valves underground and to clean all the filters in UXC55, USC55 and SCX5. Following the insertion of TOTEM T1 detector, the cooling circuit has been branched off and commissioned. The demineraliser cartridges have been replaced as well, as they were shown to be almost saturated. New instrumentation has been installed in the SCX5 PC farm cooling and ventilation network, in order to monitor the performance of the HVAC system...

  17. Free and Open Source Software for land degradation vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imbrenda, Vito; Calamita, Giuseppe; Coluzzi, Rosa; D'Emilio, Mariagrazia; Lanfredi, Maria Teresa; Perrone, Angela; Ragosta, Maria; Simoniello, Tiziana

    2013-04-01

    Nowadays the role of FOSS software in scientific research is becoming increasingly important. Besides the important issues of reduced costs for licences, legality and security there are many other reasons that make FOSS software attractive. Firstly, making the code opened is a warranty of quality permitting to thousands of developers around the world to check the code and fix bugs rather than rely on vendors claims. FOSS communities are usually enthusiastic about helping other users for solving problems and expand or customize software (flexibility). Most important for this study, the interoperability allows to combine the user-friendly QGIS with the powerful GRASS-GIS and the richness of statistical methods of R in order to process remote sensing data and to perform geo-statistical analysis in one only environment. This study is focused on the land degradation (i.e. the reduction in the capacity of the land to provide ecosystem goods and services and assure its functions) and in particular on the estimation of the vulnerability levels in order to suggest appropriate policy actions to reduce/halt land degradation impacts, using the above mentioned software. The area investigated is the Basilicata Region (Southern Italy) where large natural areas are mixed with anthropized areas. To identify different levels of vulnerability we adopted the Environmentally Sensitive Areas (ESAs) model, based on the combination of indicators related to soil, climate, vegetation and anthropic stress. Such indicators were estimated by using the following data-sources: - Basilicata Region Geoportal to assess soil vulnerability; - DESERTNET2 project to evaluate potential vegetation vulnerability and climate vulnerability; - NDVI-MODIS satellite time series (2000-2010) with 250m resolution, available as 16-day composite from the NASA LP DAAC to characterize the dynamic component of vegetation; - Agricultural Census data 2010, Corine Land Cover 2006 and morphological information to assess

  18. Tool-based risk assessment of cloud infrastructures as socio-technical systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nidd, Michael; Ivanova, Marieta Georgieva; Probst, Christian W.; Tanner, Axel; Ko, Ryan; Choo, Raymond

    2015-01-01

    Assessing risk in cloud infrastructures is difficult. Typical cloud infrastructures contain potentially thousands of nodes that are highly interconnected and dynamic. Another important component is the set of human actors who get access to data and computing infrastructure. The cloud infrastructure

  19. Vulnerability Assessment: The Seasons-to-Centuries Links

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenkert, A.; Malone, E. L.; Moss, R.

    2002-05-01

    Actors within societies must cope with climate variability all the time, for example, with the aftermath of a severe storm, a persistent drought, severe flooding or coastal erosion from storm-induced sea-level surges. Understanding the capacity to respond to these types of experiences is important in its own right, and also provides a baseline against which to measure adaptive responses to long-term changes to climate. Because the rate, magnitude, pattern, and potential for non-linear rapid future changes in climate remain uncertain, increasing resilience of systems to climate variability is an important first step in planning for adaptation to long-term changes. An important characteristic of analysis of vulnerability to climate variability is the need to integrate information on both environmental and socio-economic factors that affect the ability of different actors to mount an effective response. We developed a framework for considering responses to both climate variability and change that is relevant to analysis at a variety of geographic scales. Our Vulnerability-Resilience Assessment methodology is an indicator-based prototype model that calculates the overall vulnerability or resilience of an area to climate variability and change. The model integrates information on the climate sensitivity of five sectors or areas of activity (food security, water resources, human settlements, ecosystem services, and human health) with information on economic, human resources, and environmental capacity to cope or adapt to variability and change. The model can be used for both static assessment of vulnerability at a point in time as well as for assessing how vulnerability and resilience would evolve in the future under different assumptions of socio-economic and environmental change. When coupled with uncertainty analysis, the modeling system can be used to identify those factors that have the most influence on vulnerability and capacity to adapt to variability and change

  20. A Contamination Vulnerability Assessment for the Sacramento Area Groundwater Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moran, J E; Hudson, G B; Eaton, G F; Leif, R

    2004-03-10

    In response to concerns expressed by the California Legislature and the citizenry of the State of California, the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB), implemented a program to assess groundwater quality, and provide a predictive capability for identifying areas that are vulnerable to contamination. The program was initiated in response to concern over public supply well closures due to contamination by chemicals such as MtBE from gasoline, and solvents from industrial operations. As a result of this increased awareness regarding groundwater quality, the Supplemental Report of the 1999 Budget Act mandated the SWRCB to develop a comprehensive ambient groundwater-monitoring plan, and led to the initiation of the Ambient Groundwater Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The primary objective of the GAMA Program is to assess the water quality and to predict the relative susceptibility to contamination of groundwater resources throughout the state of California. Under the GAMA program, scientists from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) collaborate with the SWRCB, the U.S. Geological Survey, the California Department of Health Services (DHS), and the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to implement the groundwater assessment program in cooperation with local water purveyors. In 2001 and 2002, LLNL carried out this vulnerability study in the groundwater basin of Sacramento suburban area, located to the north of the American River and to the east of the Sacramento River. The goal of the study is to provide a probabilistic assessment of the relative vulnerability of groundwater used for the public water supply to contamination from surface sources. This assessment of relative contamination vulnerability is made based on the results of two types of analyses that are not routinely carried out at public water supply wells: ultra low-level measurement of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and groundwater age dating (using the tritium-helium-3

  1. Variability in Vulnerability Assessment of Older People by Individual General Practitioners: A Cross-Sectional Study

    OpenAIRE

    Drewes, Y.M.; Blom, J.W.; Assendelft, W J; Stijnen, T.; Elzen, W.P. den; Gussekloo, J

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In clinical practice, GPs appeared to have an internalized concept of "vulnerability." This study investigates the variability between general practitioners (GPs) in their vulnerability-assessment of older persons. METHODS: Seventy-seven GPs categorized their 75-plus patients (n = 11392) into non-vulnerable, possibly vulnerable, and vulnerable patients. GPs personal and practice characteristics were collected. From a sample of 2828 patients the following domains were recorded: soc...

  2. Assessing internal biophysical vulnerability to landslide hazards - a nested catchment approach: Xiangxi Watershed / Three Gorges Reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiegand, Matthias; Seeber, Christoph; Hartmann, Heike; Xiang, Wei; King, Lorenz

    2010-05-01

    . Dwellings and road infrastructure, chosen as high priorities, are captured based on various data like: high resolution satellite imagery, topographic information and field investigation. Currently demographic data is available only at administrative county level - therefore buildings will serve as spatial proxy for population density. Elements at risk will be classified into categories and susceptibility factors will be identified for sampled groups. The envisaged model defines the susceptibility of a certain element at risk not only by the element itself - it assumes that the specific susceptibility is also strongly influenced by the particular surroundings. The susceptibility of a certain building, as for instance, will be defined by the structure type and condition, and in addition or as proxy, specific site characteristics like: slope angle and aspect, soil type and erodibility, lithology, proximity to streams, proximity to the Three Gorges reservoir, depth to groundwater, land use change and dissect intensity, if feasible. Each factor with potential influence on susceptibility will go through a GIS based factor weighting procedure as part of the quantitative vulnerability model. Holistic, "cross scale integrated" vulnerability assessment models need to integrate environmental, social/ cultural and economic aspects. Therefore the proposed vulnerability assessment model must be seen as a starting point for a conceptual framework, and might serve as stimulus to local disaster- and resources management systems. Furthermore the GIS based model enables the opportunity to be linked and refined within the local spatial data infrastructure initiatives.

  3. Site-specific Vulnerability Assessment for Debris Flows: Two Case Studies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Here the vulnerability is defined as the potential total maximum losses due to a debris flow damaging event for a specific debris flow fan. The vulnerability is classified into property vulnerability and population vulnerability. Assessment indexes include the assets of buildings, traffic facilities, lifeline works, personal properties, and land resources for property vulnerability; age, education, and wealth of the inhabitants, natural population growth rate, and population density for population vulnerability. The vulnerability is expressed as the sum of the transformed values of the losses of property and population. Two study cases with post-fact damages by historic debris flow events in Sichuan of SW China are presented.

  4. Assessment of the biodiesel distribution infrastructure in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Canada's biodiesel industry is in its infancy, and must work to achieve the demand needed to ensure its development. This assessment of Canada's biodiesel distribution infrastructure was conducted to recommend the most efficient infrastructure pathway for effective biodiesel distribution. The study focused on the establishment of a link between biodiesel supplies and end-users. The current Canadian biodiesel industry was discussed, and future market potentials were outlined. The Canadian distillate product distribution infrastructure was discussed. Technical considerations and compliance issues were reviewed. The following 2 scenarios were used to estimate adaptations and costs for the Canadian market: (1) the use of primary terminals to ensure quality control of biodiesel, and (2) storage in secondary terminals where biodiesel blends are prepared before being transported to retail outlets. The study showed that relevant laboratory training programs are needed as well as proficiency testing programs in order to ensure adequate quality control of biodiesel. Standards for biodiesel distribution are needed, as well as specifications for the heating oil market. It was concluded that this document may prove useful in developing government policy objectives and identifying further research needs. 21 refs., 12 tabs., 13 figs

  5. Vulnerability Indicators Are More Accurate in Assessing Poverty Problems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭劲光

    2007-01-01

    Poverty is a complex social phenomenon that every country has to contend with at some point in time. Based on an analysis of poverty in China’s rural areas, this article assesses the present poverty alleviation measures from a new perspective. With the goal of better understanding the nature of poverty, new approaches focusing on the vulnerability to poverty are considered. Through a re-examination of the current situation and the underlying reasons for poverty in light of structural and cultural factors, this article attempts to provide new policy suggestions for dealing with poverty.

  6. Sensitivity analysis for the EPIK vulnerability assessment in a local karstic aquifer

    OpenAIRE

    Gogu, Radu Constantin; Dassargues, Alain

    2000-01-01

    Applying the EPIK parametric method, a vulnerability assessment has been made for a small karstic groundwater system in southern Belgium. The aquifer is a karstified limestone of Devonian age. A map of intrinsic vulnerability of the aquifer and of the local water-supply system shows three vulnerability areas. A parameter-balance study and a sensitivity analysis were performed to evaluate the influence of single parameters on aquifer-vulnerability assessment using the EPIK method. This approac...

  7. Vulnerability assessment and mitigation for the Chinese railway system under floods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The economy of China and the travel needs of its citizens depend significantly on the continuous and reliable services provided by its railway system. However, this system is subject to frequent natural hazards, such as floods, earthquakes, and debris flow. A mechanism to assess the railway system vulnerability under these hazards and the design of effective vulnerability mitigation strategies are essential to the reliable functioning of the railway system. This article proposes a comprehensive methodology to quantitatively assess the railway system vulnerability under floods using historical data and GIS technology. The proposed methodology includes a network representation of the railway system, the generation of flood event scenarios, a method to estimate railway link vulnerability, and a quantitative vulnerability value computation approach. The railway system vulnerability is evaluated in terms of its service disruption related to the number of interrupted trains and the durations of interruption. A maintenance strategy to mitigate vulnerability is proposed that simultaneously considers link vulnerability and number of trains using it. Numerical experiments show that the flood-induced vulnerability of the proposed representation of the Chinese railway system reaches its maximum monthly value in July, and the proposed vulnerability mitigation strategy is more effective compared to other strategies. - Highlights: • We propose a methodology to assess flood-induced railway system vulnerability. • Railway system vulnerability is evaluated in terms of its service disruption. • Chinese railway system reaches its maximum monthly vulnerability in July. • We propose an effective maintenance strategy considering link vulnerability and burden

  8. Salt vulnerability assessment methodology for municipal supply wells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betts, Andrew; Gharabaghi, Bahram; McBean, Ed; Levison, Jana; Parker, Beth

    2015-12-01

    De-icing agents containing chloride ions used for winter road maintenance have the potential to negatively impact groundwater resources for drinking water supplies. A novel methodology using commonly-available geospatial data (land use, well head protection areas) and public accessible data (salt application rates, hydrometric data) to identify salt vulnerable areas (SVAs) for groundwater wells is developed to prioritize implementation of better management practices for road salt applications. The approach uses simple mass-balance terms to collect chloride input from 3 pathways: surface runoff, shallow interflow and baseflow. A risk score is calculated, which depends on the land use within the respective municipal supply well protection area. Therefore, it is plausible to avoid costly and extensive numerical modeling (which also would bear many assumptions, simplifications and uncertainties). The method is applied to perform a vulnerability assessment on twenty municipal water supply wells in the Grand River watershed, Ontario, Canada. The calculated steady-state groundwater recharge chloride concentration for the supply wells is strongly correlated to the measured transient groundwater chloride concentrations in the case study evaluation, with an R2 = 0.84. The new method provides a simple, robust, and practical method for municipalities to assess the long-term risk of chloride contamination of municipal supply wells due to road salt application.

  9. A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan A Hare

    Full Text Available Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region. These

  10. Environmental assessment of pavement infrastructure: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inyim, Peeraya; Pereyra, Jose; Bienvenu, Michael; Mostafavi, Ali

    2016-07-01

    Through a critical review and systematic analysis of pavement life cycle assessment (LCA) studies published over the past two decades, this study shows that the available information regarding the environmental impacts of pavement infrastructure is not sufficient to determine what pavement type is more environmentally sustainable. Limitations and uncertainties related to data, system boundary and functional unit definitions, consideration of use and maintenance phase impacts, are identified as the main reasons for inconsistency of reported results in pavement LCA studies. The study outcomes also highlight the need for advancement of knowledge pertaining to: (1) utilization of performance-adjusted functional units, (2) accurate estimation of use, maintenance, and end-of-life impacts, (3) incorporation of the dynamic and uncertain nature of pavement condition performance in impact assessment; (4) development of region-specific inventory data for impact estimation; and (5) consideration of a standard set of impact categories for comparison of environmental performance of different pavement types. Advancing the knowledge in these areas is critical in providing consistent and reliable results to inform decision-making toward more sustainable roadway infrastructure. PMID:27045541

  11. Development of a security vulnerability assessment process for the RAMCAP chemical sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, David A; Fuller, Brad; Hazzan, Michael; Jones, J William

    2007-04-11

    The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Directorate of Information Analysis & Infrastructure Protection (IAIP), Protective Services Division (PSD), contracted the American Society of Mechanical Engineers Innovative Technologies Institute, LLC (ASME ITI, LLC) to develop guidance on Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP). AcuTech Consulting Group (AcuTech) has been contracted by ASME ITI, LLC, to provide assistance by facilitating the development of sector-specific guidance on vulnerability analysis and management for critical asset protection for the chemical manufacturing, petroleum refining, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) sectors. This activity involves two key tasks for these three sectors: Development of a screening to supplement DHS understanding of the assets that are important to protect against terrorist attack and to prioritize the activities. Development of a standard security vulnerability analysis (SVA) framework for the analysis of consequences, vulnerabilities, and threats. This project involves the cooperative effort of numerous leading industrial companies, industry trade associations, professional societies, and security and safety consultants representative of those sectors. Since RAMCAP is a voluntary program for ongoing risk management for homeland security, sector coordinating councils are being asked to assist in communicating the goals of the program and in encouraging participation. The RAMCAP project will have a profound and positive impact on all sectors as it is fully developed, rolled-out and implemented. It will help define the facilities and operations of national and regional interest for the threat of terrorism, define standardized methods for analyzing consequences, vulnerabilities, and threats, and describe best security practices of the industry. This paper will describe the results of the security vulnerability analysis process that was developed and field tested for the chemical manufacturing

  12. Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change hazards at the regional scale: the case study of the North Adriatic Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Torresan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Sea level rise, changes in storms and wave climate as a consequence of global climate change are expected to increase the size and magnitude of flooded and eroding coastal areas, thus having profound impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems. River deltas, beaches, estuaries and lagoons are considered particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, which should be studied at the regional/local scale. This paper presents a regional vulnerability assessment (RVA methodology developed to analyse site-specific spatial information on coastal vulnerability to the envisaged effects of global climate change, and assist coastal communities in operational coastal management and conservation. The main aim of the RVA is to identify key vulnerable receptors (i.e. natural and human ecosystems in the considered region and localize vulnerable hot spot areas, which could be considered as homogeneous geographic sites for the definition of adaptation strategies. The application of the RVA methodology is based on a heterogeneous subset of bio-geophysical and socio-economic vulnerability indicators (e.g. coastal topography, geomorphology, presence and distribution of vegetation cover, location of artificial protection, which are a measure of the potential harm from a range of climate-related impacts (e.g. sea level rise inundation, storm surge flooding, coastal erosion. Based on a system of numerical weights and scores, the RVA provides relative vulnerability maps that allow to prioritize more vulnerable areas and targets of different climate-related impacts in the examined region and to support the identification of suitable areas for human settlements, infrastructures and economic activities, providing a basis for coastal zoning and land use planning. The implementation, performance and results of the methodology for the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy are fully described in the paper.

  13. Tool-based Risk Assessment of Cloud Infrastructures as Socio-Technical Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Nidd, Michael; Ivanova, Marieta Georgieva; Christian W. Probst; Tanner, Axel

    2015-01-01

    Assessing risk in cloud infrastructures is difficult. Typical cloud infrastructures contain potentially thousands of nodes that are highly interconnected and dynamic. Another important component is the set of human actors who get access to data and computing infrastructure. The cloud infrastructure therefore constitutes a socio-technical system. Attacks on socio-technical systems are still mostly identified through expert brainstorming. However, formal risk assessment for systems including hu...

  14. Remote sensing techniques applied to seismic vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juan Arranz, Jose; Torres, Yolanda; Hahgi, Azade; Gaspar-Escribano, Jorge

    2016-04-01

    Advances in remote sensing and photogrammetry techniques have increased the degree of accuracy and resolution in the record of the earth's surface. This has expanded the range of possible applications of these data. In this research, we have used these data to document the construction characteristics of the urban environment of Lorca, Spain. An exposure database has been created with the gathered information to be used in seismic vulnerability assessment. To this end, we have used data from photogrammetric flights at different periods, using both orthorectified images in the visible and infrared spectrum. Furthermore, the analysis is completed using LiDAR data. From the combination of these data, it has been possible to delineate the building footprints and characterize the constructions with attributes such as the approximate date of construction, area, type of roof and even building materials. To carry out the calculation, we have developed different algorithms to compare images from different times, segment images, classify LiDAR data, and use the infrared data in order to remove vegetation or to compute roof surfaces with height value, tilt and spectral fingerprint. In addition, the accuracy of our results has been validated with ground truth data. Keywords: LiDAR, remote sensing, seismic vulnerability, Lorca

  15. Agroterrorism. Agricultural infrastructure vulnerability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Bredow, J; Myers, M; Wagner, D; Valdes, J J; Loomis, L; Zamani, K

    1999-01-01

    The intentional contamination of animal feed to reduce the availability of animal-derived human food or to infect human populations is seldom mentioned, but animal feed could be an easy target for bioterrorists. The period of delay between the contamination of the animal feed and adulteration of the human food product provides an additional degree of uncertainty about the source of the contamination and minimizes the possibility of apprehending the terrorist. The less obvious and more natural the source of biological contamination, the greater the likelihood that the animal feed contamination will be mistaken as a natural phenomenon. However, the problems related to managing natural food contamination and intentional food contamination remain the same. Rapid testing and separation of contaminated feed are important steps, followed by the more specific identification of the contaminant to determine the source of adulteration and/or the possibility of decontamination. At this time identification of the bioagents is dependent on the availability of antibody-specific test systems. The rapid development of specific antibodies for the development of sensitive and specific test kits is the key to identifying contamination and dealing effectively with the disposal or decontamination of the animal feed and, ultimately, preventing the contamination of animal-derived human food products. PMID:10681987

  16. National Levee Database: monitoring, vulnerability assessment and management in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbetta, Silvia; Camici, Stefania; Maccioni, Pamela; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2015-04-01

    Italian levees and historical breach failures to be exploited in the framework of an operational procedure addressed to the seepage vulnerability assessment of river reaches where the levee system is an important structural measure against flooding. For its structure, INLED is a dynamic geospatial database with ongoing efforts to add levee data from authorities with the charge of hydraulic risk mitigation. In particular, the database is aimed to provide the available information about: i) location and condition of levees; ii) morphological and geometrical properties; iii) photographic documentation; iv) historical levee failures; v) assessment of vulnerability to overtopping and seepage carried out through a procedure based on simple vulnerability indexes (Camici et al. 2014); vi) management, control and maintenance; vii)flood hazard maps developed by assuming the levee system undamaged/damaged during the flood event. Currently, INLED contains data of levees that are mostly located in the Tiber basin, Central Italy. References Apel H., Merz B. & Thieken A.H. Quantification of uncertainties in flood risk assessments. Int J River Basin Manag 2008, 6, (2), 149-162. Camici S,, Barbetta S., Moramarco T., Levee body vulnerability to seepage: the case study of the levee failure along the Foenna stream on 1st January 2006 (central Italy)", Journal of Flood Risk Management, in press. Colleselli F. Geotechnical problems related to river and channel embankments. Rotterdam, the Netherlands: Springer, 1994. H. R.Wallingford Consultants (HRWC). Risk assessment for flood and coastal defence for strategic planning: high level methodology technical report, London, 2003. Mazzoleni M., Bacchi B., Barontini S., Di Baldassarre G., Pilotti M. & Ranzi R. Flooding hazard mapping in floodplain areas affected by piping breaches in the Po River, Italy. J Hydrol Eng 2014, 19, (4), 717-731.

  17. Assessing Embodied Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Infrastructure Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Krantz

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Greenhouse gas (GHG emissions from construction processes are a serious concern globally. Of the several approaches taken to assess emissions, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA based methods do not just take into account the construction phase, but consider all phases of the life cycle of the construction. However, many current LCA approaches make general assumptions regarding location and effects, which do not do justice to the inherent dynamics of normal construction projects. This study presents a model to assess the embodied energy and associated GHG emissions, which is specifically adapted to address the dynamics of infrastructure construction projects. The use of the model is demonstrated on the superstructure of a prefabricated bridge. The findings indicate that Building Information Models/Modeling (BIM and Discrete Event Simulation (DES can be used to efficiently generate project-specific data, which is needed for estimating the embodied energy and associated GHG emissions in construction settings. This study has implications for the advancement of LCA-based methods (as well as project management as a way of assessing embodied energy and associated GHG emissions related to construction.

  18. Assessment of Logistics effects from Transport Infrastructure Investments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holvad, Torben; Salling, Kim Bang

    2004-01-01

    logistic-goods effects in section 2. Thereafter in section 3 a number of empirical examples of these effects are examined. In section 4 practical modelling issues regarding logistic-goods effects are considered forming part of the research programme 2002-2005 of the Danish Centre for Logistics and Freight......Evaluation methodologies in Denmark and in a number of other European countries have over the years had a primary focus on person-related issues within transport planning. Thus issues relating to evaluation for freight transport have lacked behind and have not had the attention they deserve on the...... basis of the importance of this research area from a societal and economic viewpoint. This paper aims to identify a framework for assessment of logistic effects from transport infrastructure investment such that these effects can be integrated into the appraisal methodologies. Particular attention...

  19. Artificial intelligence and signal processing for infrastructure assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assaleh, Khaled; Shanableh, Tamer; Yehia, Sherif

    2015-04-01

    The Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) is being recognized as an effective nondestructive evaluation technique to improve the inspection process. However, data interpretation and complexity of the results impose some limitations on the practicality of using this technique. This is mainly due to the need of a trained experienced person to interpret images obtained by the GPR system. In this paper, an algorithm to classify and assess the condition of infrastructures utilizing image processing and pattern recognition techniques is discussed. Features extracted form a dataset of images of defected and healthy slabs are used to train a computer vision based system while another dataset is used to evaluate the proposed algorithm. Initial results show that the proposed algorithm is able to detect the existence of defects with about 77% success rate.

  20. Reliability assessment of power pole infrastructure incorporating deterioration and network maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There is considerable investment in timber utility poles worldwide, and there is a need to examine the structural reliability and probability based management optimisation of these power distribution infrastructure elements. The work presented in this paper builds on the existing studies in this area through assessment of both treated and untreated timber power poles, with the effects of deterioration and network maintenance incorporated in the analysis. This more realistic assessment approach, with deterioration and maintenance considered, was achieved using event-based Monte Carlo simulation. The output from the probabilistic model is used to illustrate the importance of considering network maintenance in the time-dependent structural reliability assessment of timber power poles. Under wind load, treated and untreated poles designed and maintained in accordance with existing Australian standards were found to have similar failure rates. However, untreated pole networks required approximately twice as many maintenance based pole replacements to sustain the same level of reliability. The effect of four different network maintenance strategies on infrastructure performance was also investigated herein. This assessment highlighted the fact that slight alterations to network maintenance practices can lead to significant changes in performance of timber power pole networks. - Highlights: • A time-dependent structural reliability model was developed for timber power poles. • Deterioration and network maintenance were incorporated into this event based model. • Network maintenance had a significant impact on power pole wind vulnerability. • Treated and untreated poles designed to Australian standards had similar reliability. • Minor alterations to maintenance strategies had large effects on network performance

  1. Department of Energy, highly enriched uranium ES ampersand H vulnerability assessment, Idaho National Engineering Laboratory site assessment team report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In accordance with the February 22, 1996 directive issued by Secretary of Energy O'Leary on the Vulnerability Assessment of Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) Storage, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory conducted an assessment of the site's HEU holdings and any associated vulnerabilities. The assessment was conducted between April 25 and May 24, 1996. The scope of this assessment, as defined in the Assessment Plan, included all HEU, and any spent fuel not evaluated in the Spent Fuel Vulnerability Assessment. Addressed in this assessment were all of the holdings at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) except any located at Argonne National Laboratory-West (ANL-W) and the Naval Reactors Facility. Excluded from the assessment were those HEU holdings previously assessed in the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory Spent Nuclear Fuel Inventory and Vulnerability Site Assessment Report and any HEU holdings evaluated in the Plutonium Vulnerability Assessment Report

  2. Effectiveness of Water Infrastructure for River Flood Management: Part 2 - Flood Risk Assessment and Its Changes in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Y.; Gusyev, M.; Arifuzzaman, B.; Khairul, I.; Iwami, Y.; Takeuchi, K.

    2015-06-01

    A case study of Bangladesh presents a methodological possibility based on a global approach for assessing river flood risk and its changes considering flood hazard, exposure, basic vulnerability and coping capacity. This study consists of two parts in the issue of flood change: hazard assessment (Part 1) and risk assessment (Part 2). In Part 1, a hazard modeling technology was introduced and applied to the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) basin to quantify the change of 50- and 100-year flood hazards in Bangladesh under the present (1979-2003) and future (2075-2099) climates. Part 2 focuses on estimating nationwide flood risk in terms of affected people and rice crop damage due to a 50-year flood hazard identified in Part 1, and quantifying flood risk changes between the presence and absence of existing water infrastructure (i.e., embankments). To assess flood risk in terms of rice crop damage, rice paddy fields were extracted and flood stage-damage curves were created for maximum risk scenarios as a demonstration of risk change in the present and future climates. The preliminary results in Bangladesh show that a tendency of flood risk change strongly depends on the temporal and spatial dynamics of exposure and vulnerability such as distributed population and effectiveness of water infrastructure, which suggests that the proposed methodology is applicable anywhere in the world.

  3. Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buotte, Polly C; Peterson, David L; McKelvey, Kevin S; Hicke, Jeffrey A

    2016-03-15

    Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability assessment conducted by the US Forest Service. During this assessment, five subregional workshops were held to capture variability in vulnerability and to develop adaptation tactics. At each workshop, participants answered a questionnaire to: 1) identify species, resources, or other information missing from the regional assessment, and 2) describe subregional vulnerability to climate change. Workshop participants divided into six resource groups; here we focus on wildlife resources. Participants identified information missing from the regional assessment and multiple instances of subregional variability in climate change vulnerability. We provide recommendations for improving the process of capturing subregional variability in a regional vulnerability assessment. We propose a revised conceptual framework structured around pathways of climate influence, each with separate rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. These revisions allow for a quantitative ranking of species, pathways, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity across subregions. Rankings can be used to direct the development and implementation of future regional research and monitoring programs. The revised conceptual framework is equally applicable as a stand-alone model for assessing climate change vulnerability and as a nested model within a regional assessment for capturing subregional variability in vulnerability. PMID:26796918

  4. Seismic vulnerability and risk assessment of Kolkata City, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nath, S. K.; Adhikari, M. D.; Devaraj, N.; Maiti, S. K.

    2015-06-01

    The city of Kolkata is one of the most urbanized and densely populated regions in the world and a major industrial and commercial hub of the eastern and northeastern region of India. In order to classify the seismic risk zones of Kolkata we used seismic hazard exposures on the vulnerability components, namely land use/land cover, population density, building typology, age and height. We microzoned seismic hazard of the city by integrating seismological, geological and geotechnical themes in GIS, which in turn are integrated with the vulnerability components in a logic-tree framework for the estimation of both the socioeconomic and structural risk of the city. In both the risk maps, three broad zones have been demarcated as "severe", "high" and "moderate". There had also been a risk-free zone in the city that is termed as "low". The damage distribution in the city due to the 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake of Mw = 8.1 matches satisfactorily well with the demarcated risk regime. The design horizontal seismic coefficients for the city have been worked out for all the fundamental periods that indicate suitability for "A", "B" and "C" type of structures. The cumulative damage probabilities in terms of "none", "slight", "moderate", "extensive" and "complete" have also been assessed for the predominantly four model building types viz. RM2L, RM2M, URML and URMM for each seismic structural risk zone in the city. Both the seismic hazard and risk maps are expected to play vital roles in the earthquake-inflicted disaster mitigation and management of the city of Kolkata.

  5. Contribution for the vulnerability assessment of water pipe network systems

    OpenAIRE

    Pinto, Jorge; Afonso, Luís; Varajão, João; Bentes, Isabel; Varum, Humberto; António A. L. S. Duarte; Agarwal, Jitendra

    2010-01-01

    Water pipe network systems are key public utilities which require being robust, protected and preserved. Knowing their weaknesses will help these processes. The theory of vulnerability of water pipe networks can contribute in this context because it is able to map the vulnerable parts of this type of system. The meaning of vulnerability has been defined as being the disproportionateness of the failure consequences in relation to the initial damage and, in particular, its theoretical concepts....

  6. Hazard risk and vulnerability assessment : Regional District of Nanaimo : final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A Hazard Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (HRVA) is a mandated regulatory requirement in British Columbia that requires local authorities to prepare emergency plans that reflect the local authority's assessment of the relative risk of occurrence and the potential impact on people and property of the hazards, emergencies or disasters that could affect the jurisdictional area for which the local authority has responsibility. This report constituted an HRVA for the Regional District of Nanaimo, British Columbia. It presented the study scope and methodology and provided an overview of the Regional District of Nanaimo. This included information on the setting, demographics, and economy. Next, it discussed social vulnerability; critical response and recovery facilities; and critical infrastructure such as water, energy, telecommunications and transportation. A summary of the Regional District of Nanaimo's response capabilities that were considered when assessing the Regional District's overall risk to the hazards was also presented. Response capabilities were discussed with reference to fire and rescue; police; ambulance; and search and rescue. Emergency support and preparedness organizations were also identified. These included the Emergency Coordination Centre, environmental services, emergency social services, amateur radio and health authorities. Last, 33 hazards that could affect the Regional District of Nanaimo were identified and discussed. The study identified the following hazards as high risk: flooding; forest fires and wildland urban interface fires; and human diseases and pandemic. It was recommended that the advancement of business continuity planning in the Regional District of Nanaimo would help to reduce the impact of a possible human disease and pandemic risk outbreak affecting the population. 75 refs., 25 figs., 14 tabs., 2 appendices

  7. Comprehensive Assessment of Eco-environment Vulnerability in Hebei Province Based on ArcGIS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    [Objective] This study aimed to assess the vulnerability of ecological environment in Hebei Province.[Method] Based on ArcGIS,by using the dominant factor and maximum limits factor method,we established the sensitivity-reality indicator system and assessment model of the eco-environment vulnerability in Hebei Province to quantitatively evaluate its eco-environment vulnerability,and analyzed its spatial distribution.[Result] The status quo of environmental degradation was inconsistent with the sensitivity of...

  8. Intrinsic vulnerability assessment of Sette Comuni Plateau aquifer (Veneto Region, Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucchi, Franco; Franceschini, Giuliana; Zini, Luca; Aurighi, Marina

    2008-09-01

    Maps illustrating the different degrees of vulnerability within a given area are integral to environmental protection and management policies. The assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of karst areas is difficult since the type and stage of karst development and the related underground discharge behavior are difficult to determine and quantify. Geographic Information Systems techniques are applied to the evaluation of the vulnerability of an aquifer in the alpine karst area of the Sette Comuni Plateau, in the Veneto Region of northern Italy. The water resources of the studied aquifer are of particular importance to the local communities. This aquifer must therefore be protected from both inappropriate use as well as possible pollution. The SINTACS and SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) vulnerability assessment methods have been utilized here to create the vulnerability map. SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) is an adaptation of the parametric managerial model (SINTACS) to karst hydrostructures. The vulnerability map reveals vast zones (81% of the analyzed areas) with a high degree of vulnerability. The presence of well-developed karst structures in these highly vulnerable areas facilitate water percolation, thereby enhancing the groundwater vulnerability risk. Only 1.5 of the studied aquifer have extremely high-vulnerability levels, however these areas include all of the major springs utilized for human consumption. This vulnerability map of the Sette Comuni Plateau aquifer is an indispensable tool for both the effective management of water resources and as support to environmental planning in the Sette Comuni Plateau area. PMID:17628323

  9. Assessment of the Financing Framework for Municipal Infrastructure in Vietnam

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2013-01-01

    A fundamental challenge for Vietnam is to improve the affordability and efficiency of infrastructure investment. The fragmentation of public infrastructure investment results in duplication and waste, and is a major underlying cause of investment inefficiency. Bond issuance has been the most prominent form of debt financing at the sub-national level. At the provincial level, significant di...

  10. Assessing the potential of change in urban infrastructure systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Susanne Balslev; Elle, Morten

    2000-01-01

    In order to understand the dynamics and the potential of change, urban infrastructure must be seen as socio-technical artefacts. The paper offers a methodology for analysing current infrastructure and a case study demonstrating that social relations plays a significant role as barriers of...

  11. On methods for assessing water-resource risks and vulnerabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleick, Peter H.

    2015-11-01

    Because of the critical role that freshwater plays in maintaining ecosystem health and supporting human development through agricultural and industrial production there have been numerous efforts over the past few decades to develop indicators and indices of water vulnerability. Each of these efforts has tried to identify key factors that both offer insights into water-related risks and strategies that might be useful for reducing those risks. These kinds of assessments have serious limitations associated with data, the complexity of water challenges, and the changing nature of climatic and hydrologic variables. This new letter by Padowski et al (2015 Environ. Res. Lett. 10 104014) adds to the field by broadening the kinds of measures that should be integrated into such tools, especially in the area of institutional characteristics, and analyzing them in a way that provides new insights into the similarities and differences in water risks facing different countries, but much more can and should be done with new data and methods to improve our understanding of water challenges.

  12. Tsunami Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk assessment for the coast of Oman

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, Mauricio; Aniel-Quiroga, Íñigo; Aguirre-Ayerbe, Ignacio; Álvarez-Gómez, José Antonio; MArtínez, Jara; Gonzalez-Riancho, Pino; Fernandez, Felipe; Medina, Raúl; Al-Yahyai, Sultan

    2016-04-01

    Tsunamis are relatively infrequent phenomena representing a greater threat than earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes, and causing the loss of thousands of human lives and extensive damage to coastal infrastructures around the world. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of new methodologies in this field. This work presents the methodology that has been followed for developing the tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment for the coast of Oman, including maps containing the results of the process. Oman is located in the south eastern corner of the Arabian Peninsula and of the Arabian plate, in front of the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), which is the major source of earthquakes in the eastern border of the Arabian plate and Oman (Al-Shaqsi, 2012). There are at least three historical tsunamis assigned to seismic origin in the MSZ (Heidarzadeh et al., 2008; Jordan, 2008). These events show the high potential for tsunami generation of the MSZ, being one of the most tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean. For the tsunami hazard assessment, worst potential cases have been selected, as well as the historical case of 1945, when an 8.1 earthquake generated a tsunami affecting the coast of Oman, and prompting 4000 casualties in the countries of the area. These scenarios have been computationally simulated in order to get tsunami hazard maps, including flooding maps. These calculations have been carried out at national and local scale, in 9 municipalities all along the coast of Oman, including the cities of Sohar, Wudam, Sawadi, Muscat, Quriyat, Sur, Masirah, Al Duqm, and Salalah. Using the hazard assessment as input, this work presents as well an integrated framework for the tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment carried out in the Sultanate of Oman. This framework considers different dimensions (human, structural) and it is developed at two different spatial resolutions, national and local scale. The national

  13. Social cost impact assessment of pipeline infrastructure projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A key advantage of trenchless construction methods compared with traditional open-cut methods is their ability to install or rehabilitate underground utility systems with limited disruption to the surrounding built and natural environments. The equivalent monetary values of these disruptions are commonly called social costs. Social costs are often ignored by engineers or project managers during project planning and design phases, partially because they cannot be calculated using standard estimating methods. In recent years some approaches for estimating social costs were presented. Nevertheless, the cost data needed for validation of these estimating methods is lacking. Development of such social cost databases can be accomplished by compiling relevant information reported in various case histories. This paper identifies eight most important social cost categories, presents mathematical methods for calculating them, and summarizes the social cost impacts for two pipeline construction projects. The case histories are analyzed in order to identify trends for the various social cost categories. The effectiveness of the methods used to estimate these values is also discussed. These findings are valuable for pipeline infrastructure engineers making renewal technology selection decisions by providing a more accurate process for the assessment of social costs and impacts. - Highlights: • Identified the eight most important social cost factors for pipeline construction • Presented mathematical methods for calculating those social cost factors • Summarized social cost impacts for two pipeline construction projects • Analyzed those projects to identify trends for the social cost factors

  14. Social cost impact assessment of pipeline infrastructure projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthews, John C., E-mail: matthewsj@battelle.org [Battelle, 7231 Palmetto Dr, Baton Rouge, LA 70808 (United States); Allouche, Erez N., E-mail: allouche@latech.edu [Louisiana Tech University (United States); Sterling, Raymond L., E-mail: sterling@latech.edu [Louisiana Tech University (United States)

    2015-01-15

    A key advantage of trenchless construction methods compared with traditional open-cut methods is their ability to install or rehabilitate underground utility systems with limited disruption to the surrounding built and natural environments. The equivalent monetary values of these disruptions are commonly called social costs. Social costs are often ignored by engineers or project managers during project planning and design phases, partially because they cannot be calculated using standard estimating methods. In recent years some approaches for estimating social costs were presented. Nevertheless, the cost data needed for validation of these estimating methods is lacking. Development of such social cost databases can be accomplished by compiling relevant information reported in various case histories. This paper identifies eight most important social cost categories, presents mathematical methods for calculating them, and summarizes the social cost impacts for two pipeline construction projects. The case histories are analyzed in order to identify trends for the various social cost categories. The effectiveness of the methods used to estimate these values is also discussed. These findings are valuable for pipeline infrastructure engineers making renewal technology selection decisions by providing a more accurate process for the assessment of social costs and impacts. - Highlights: • Identified the eight most important social cost factors for pipeline construction • Presented mathematical methods for calculating those social cost factors • Summarized social cost impacts for two pipeline construction projects • Analyzed those projects to identify trends for the social cost factors.

  15. Assessment of the vulnerability and the resilience of the population at risk of multi-hazard: a support to geo-risk management in Central Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michellier, Caroline; Kervyn, François; Tréfon, Théodore; Wolff, Eléonore

    2013-04-01

    GeoRisCA is a project which aims at studying the geo-risk in the Kivu region (DRC, Rwanda, Burundi), in order to support risk management. The approach developed in GeoRisCA combines methodologies from various disciplines, which will allow the analyses of seismic, volcanic and mass-movement hazards and the vulnerability assessment of the threatened elements. Vulnerability is a complex concept which is commonly defined as the susceptibility of the population, the infrastructures and the natural ecosystems to suffer from damages if a hazard occurs. The densely populated area extended from the North Kivu province in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to North Burundi and East Rwanda is vulnerable to several geohazards, such as landslides triggered by geodynamical processes (climate, seismicity, volcanism) and possibly worsen by anthropic actions. Located in the East African rift valley, the region is also characterized by a strong seismicity, with increasing people and infrastructure exposed. In addition, east DRC hosts the two most active African volcanoes: Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira. Their activity can have serious impacts, as in 2002 when Nyiragongo directly endangers the ~800.000 inhabitants of Goma city, located ~15 km to the south. Linked to passive volcanic degassing, SO2 and CO2 discharge may also increase the population vulnerability(morbidity, mortality). Focusing specifically on this region, the vulnerability assessment methodology developed in GeoRisCA takes into account "exposure to perturbations" and "adaptive capacity or resilience" of the vulnerable systems. On one hand, the exposure is identified as the potential degree of loss of a given element or set of elements at risk; i.e., the susceptibility of people, infrastructures and buildings with respect to a hazard (social vulnerability). It focuses mainly on land use, and on demographic and socio-economic factors that increase or attenuate the impacts of hazards events on local populations. On the

  16. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices (2011 Final)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA is releasing the final report titled, Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices. This report was prepared by the National Center for Environmental Assessment's Global Climate Research Staff in the Office of Research and Developmen...

  17. Tool-based Risk Assessment of Cloud Infrastructures as Socio-Technical Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nidd, Michael; Ivanova, Marieta Georgieva; Probst, Christian W.;

    2015-01-01

    Assessing risk in cloud infrastructures is difficult. Typical cloud infrastructures contain potentially thousands of nodes that are highly interconnected and dynamic. Another important component is the set of human actors who get access to data and computing infrastructure. The cloud infrastructure...... therefore constitutes a socio-technical system. Attacks on socio-technical systems are still mostly identified through expert brainstorming. However, formal risk assessment for systems including human actors requires modeling human behavior, which is difficult at best. In this chapter, we present a modeling...... exercise for cloud infrastructures using the socio-technical model developed in the TRESPASS project; after showing how to model typical components of a cloud infrastructure, we show how attacks are identified on this model and discuss their connection to risk assessment. The technical part of the model is...

  18. Risk Assessment Methodology for Protecting Our Critical Physical Infrastructures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    BIRINGER,BETTY E.; DANNEELS,JEFFREY J.

    2000-12-13

    Critical infrastructures are central to our national defense and our economic well-being, but many are taken for granted. Presidential Decision Directive (PDD) 63 highlights the importance of eight of our critical infrastructures and outlines a plan for action. Greatly enhanced physical security systems will be required to protect these national assets from new and emerging threats. Sandia National Laboratories has been the lead laboratory for the Department of Energy (DOE) in developing and deploying physical security systems for the past twenty-five years. Many of the tools, processes, and systems employed in the protection of high consequence facilities can be adapted to the civilian infrastructure.

  19. Savannah River Site management response plan for chemical safety vulnerability field assessment. Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As part of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) initiative to identify potential chemical safety vulnerabilities in the DOE complex, the Chemical Safety Vulnerability Core Working Group issued a field verification assessment report. While the report concluded that Savannah River Site (SRS) is moving in a positive direction, the report also identified five chemical safety vulnerabilities with broad programmatic impact that are not easily nor quickly remedied. The May 1994 SRS Management Response Plan addressed the five SRS vulnerabilities identified in the field assessment report. The SRS response plan listed observations supporting the vulnerabilities and any actions taken or planned toward resolution. Many of the observations were resolved by simple explanations, such as the existence of implementation plans for Safety Analysis Report updates. Recognizing that correcting individual observations does not suffice in remedying the vulnerabilities, a task team was assembled to address the broader programmatic issues and to recommend corrective actions

  20. Savannah River Site management response plan for chemical safety vulnerability field assessment. Revision 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kahal, E.J.; Murphy, S.L.; Salaymeh, S.R.

    1994-09-01

    As part of the U.S. Department of Energy`s (DOE) initiative to identify potential chemical safety vulnerabilities in the DOE complex, the Chemical Safety Vulnerability Core Working Group issued a field verification assessment report. While the report concluded that Savannah River Site (SRS) is moving in a positive direction, the report also identified five chemical safety vulnerabilities with broad programmatic impact that are not easily nor quickly remedied. The May 1994 SRS Management Response Plan addressed the five SRS vulnerabilities identified in the field assessment report. The SRS response plan listed observations supporting the vulnerabilities and any actions taken or planned toward resolution. Many of the observations were resolved by simple explanations, such as the existence of implementation plans for Safety Analysis Report updates. Recognizing that correcting individual observations does not suffice in remedying the vulnerabilities, a task team was assembled to address the broader programmatic issues and to recommend corrective actions.

  1. Assessing node risk and vulnerability in epidemics on networks

    CERN Document Server

    Rogers, Tim

    2015-01-01

    Which nodes are most vulnerable to an epidemic spreading through a network, and which carry the highest risk of causing a major outbreak if they are the source of the infection? Here we show how these questions can be answered to good approximation using the cavity method. Several curious properties of node vulnerability and risk are explored: some nodes are more vulnerable than others to weaker infections, yet less vulnerable to stronger ones; a node is always more likely to be caught in an outbreak than it is to start one, except when the disease has a deterministic lifetime; the rank order of node risk depends on the details of the distribution of infectious periods.

  2. Reconsidering the risk assessment concept: Standardizing the impact description as a building block for vulnerability assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Hollenstein

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessments for natural hazards are becoming more widely used and accepted. Using an extended definition of risk, it becomes obvious that performant procedures for vulnerability assessments are vital for the success of the risk concept. However, there are large gaps in knowledge about vulnerability. To alleviate the situation, a conceptual extension of the scope of existing and new models is suggested. The basis of the suggested concept is a stadardization of the output of hazard assessments. This is achieved by defining states of the target objects that depend on the impact and at the same time affect the object's performance characteristics. The possible state variables can be related to a limited set of impact descriptors termed generic impact description interface. The concept suggests that both hazard and vulnerability assessment models are developed according to the specification of this interface, thus facilitating modularized risk assessments. Potential problems related to the application of the concept include acceptance issues and the lacking accuracy of transformation of outputs of existing models. Potential applications and simple examples for adapting existing models are briefly discussed.

  3. The Gerici project: management of risks related to climate change for infrastructures. First lessons of three years of vulnerability study experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change considerably modifies the vulnerability of infrastructures, and such concepts as the 'hundred-year flood' can even become dangerous in this new context. Interesting conclusions were reached for contracting authorities and a specific tool developed for infrastructure operators resulting from three years of research carried out after labelling by the RGCU (civil engineering and urban network) and with co-financing by the public works ministry. This project, managed by Egis (Scetauroute and Bceom) groups Sanef, ASF, Meteo-France, LCPC and Esri France. The article describes the stages in the procedure and the geographical information system (SIG), a user-friendly and transposable support tool for technical and strategic investigations. (authors)

  4. Assessing the Performance of a Classification-Based Vulnerability Analysis Model

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Tai-Ran; Mousseau, Vincent; Pedroni, Nicola; Zio, Enrico

    2015-01-01

    In this article, a classification model based on the majority rule sorting (MR-Sort) method is employed to evaluate the vulnerability of safety-critical systems with respect to malevolent intentional acts. The model is built on the basis of a (limited-size) set of data representing (a priori known) vulnerability classification examples. The empirical construction of the clas-sification model introduces a source of uncertainty into the vulnerability analysis process: a quantitative assessment ...

  5. Increasing Android Security using a Lightweight OVAL-based Vulnerability Assessment Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Barrère, Martín; Hurel, Gaëtan; Badonnel, Rémi; Festor, Olivier

    2012-01-01

    Mobile computing devices and the services offered by them are utilized by millions of users on a daily basis. However, they operate in hostile environments getting exposed to a wide variety of threats. Accordingly, vulnerability management mechanisms are highly required. We present in this paper a novel approach for increasing the security of mobile devices by efficiently detecting vulnerable configurations. In that context, we propose a modeling for performing vulnerability assessment activi...

  6. Assessing Local Vulnerability to Climate Change in Agriculture for Tocantins, Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Guerrero-Escobar, Santiago; Juarez-Torres, Miriam; Martinez Cruz, Adan

    2014-01-01

    We propose a reliable indicator of vulnerability to climate change in agriculture that allows assessing within the system the main components of vulnerability at a local level: stressors exposure (SE), stressors sensitivity (SS), and adaptive capacity (AC). Also, this indicator will allow identifying main vulnerability drivers and planning policies to increase system resiliency as well as designing climate change adaptation policies at the local level.

  7. Assessment of Road Infrastructures Pertaining to Malaysian Experience

    OpenAIRE

    Samsuddin Norshakina; Mohd Masirin Mohd Idrus

    2016-01-01

    Road Infrastructures contribute towards many severe accidents and it needs supervision as to improve road safety levels. The numbers of fatalities have increased annually and road authority should seriously consider conducting programs or activities to periodically monitor, restore of improve road infrastructure. Implementation of road safety audits may reduce fatalities among road users and maintain road safety at acceptable standards. This paper is aimed to discuss the aspects of road infra...

  8. The Assessment of Comprehensive Vulnerability of Chemical Industrial Park Based on Entropy Method and Matter-element Extension Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Jingyi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on studying connotative meaning, evaluation methods and models for chemical industry park based on in-depth analysis of relevant research results in China and abroad, it summarizes and states the feature of menacing vulnerability and structural vulnerability and submits detailed influence factors such as personnel vulnerability, infrastructural vulnerability, environmental vulnerability and the vulnerability of safety managerial defeat. Using vulnerability scoping diagram establishes 21 evaluation indexes and an index system for the vulnerability evaluation of chemical industrial park. The comprehensive weights are calculated with entropy method, combining matter-element extension model to make the quantitative evaluation, then apply to evaluate some chemical industrial park successfully. This method provides a new ideas and ways for enhancing overall safety of the chemical industrial park.

  9. Assessing the Agricultural Vulnerability for India under Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Tarul; Vardhan Murari, Harsha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Ghosh, Subimal; Singh, Jitendra

    2016-04-01

    Global climate change has proven to show majorly negative impacts for the far future. These negative impacts adversely affect almost all the fields including agriculture, water resources, tourism, and marine ecosystem. Among these, the effects on agriculture are considered to be of prime importance since its regional impacts can directly affect the global food security. Under such lines, it becomes essential to understand how climate change directs agricultural production for a region along with its vulnerability. In India, rice and wheat are considered as major staple diet and hence understanding its production loss/gain due to regional vulnerability to climate change becomes necessary. Here, an attempt has been made to understand the agricultural vulnerability for rice and wheat, considering yield as a function of temperature and precipitation during growing period. In order to accomplish this objective, the ratio of actual to potential evapo-transpiration has been considered which serves as a reliable indicator; with more this ratio towards unity, less vulnerable will be the region. The current objective needs an integration of climatic, hydrological and agricultural parameters; that can be achieved by simulating a climate data driven hydrologic (Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC) model and a crop (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, DSSAT) model. The proposed framework is an attempt to derive a crop vulnerability map that can facilitate in strategizing adaption practices which can reduce the adverse impacts of climate change in future.

  10. Development and Application of Urban Landslide Vulnerability Assessment Methodology Reflecting Social and Economic Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoonkyung Park

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available An urban landslide vulnerability assessment methodology is proposed with major focus on considering urban social and economic aspects. The proposed methodology was developed based on the landslide susceptibility maps that Korean Forest Service utilizes to identify landslide source areas. Frist, debris flows are propagated to urban areas from such source areas by Flow-R (flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a regional scale, and then urban vulnerability is assessed by two categories: physical and socioeconomic aspect. The physical vulnerability is related to buildings that can be impacted by a landslide event. This study considered two popular building structure types, reinforced-concrete frame and nonreinforced-concrete frame, to assess the physical vulnerability. The socioeconomic vulnerability is considered a function of the resistant levels of the vulnerable people, trigger factor of secondary damage, and preparedness level of the local government. An index-based model is developed to evaluate the life and indirect damage under landslide as well as the resilience ability against disasters. To illustrate the validity of the proposed methodology, physical and socioeconomic vulnerability levels are analyzed for Seoul, Korea, using the suggested approach. The general trend found in this study indicates that the higher population density areas under a weaker fiscal condition that are located at the downstream of mountainous areas are more vulnerable than the areas in opposite conditions.

  11. The arctic water resource vulnerability index: An integrated assessment tool for community resilience and vulnerability with respect to freshwater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alessa, L.; Kliskey, A.; Lammers, R.; Arp, C.; White, D.; Hinzman, L.; Busey, R.

    2008-01-01

    People in the Arctic face uncertainty in their daily lives as they contend with environmental changes at a range of scales from local to global. Freshwater is a critical resource to people, and although water resource indicators have been developed that operate from regional to global scales and for midlatitude to equatorial environments, no appropriate index exists for assessing the vulnerability of Arctic communities to changing water resources at the local scale. The Arctic Water Resource Vulnerability Index (AWRVI) is proposed as a tool that Arctic communities can use to assess their relative vulnerability-resilience to changes in their water resources from a variety of biophysical and socioeconomic processes. The AWRVI is based on a social-ecological systems perspective that includes physical and social indicators of change and is demonstrated in three case study communities/watersheds in Alaska. These results highlight the value of communities engaging in the process of using the AWRVI and the diagnostic capability of examining the suite of constituent physical and social scores rather than the total AWRVI score alone. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

  12. Regional hazard analysis for use in vulnerability and risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maris, Fotis; Kitikidou, Kyriaki; Paparrizos, Spyridon; Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Potouridis, Simeon; Fuchs, Sven

    2014-05-01

    A method for supporting an operational regional risk and vulnerability analysis for hydrological hazards is suggested and applied in the Island of Cyprus. The method aggregates the output of a hydrological flow model forced by observed temperatures and precipitations, with observed discharge data. A scheme supported by observed discharge is applied for model calibration. A comparison of different calibration schemes indicated that the same model parameters can be used for the entire country. In addition, it was demonstrated that, for operational purposes, it is sufficient to rely on a few stations. Model parameters were adjusted to account for land use and thus for vulnerability of elements at risk by comparing observed and simulated flow patterns, using all components of the hydrological model. The results can be used for regional risk and vulnerability analysis in order to increase the resilience of the affected population.

  13. Applying and validating the PTVA-3 Model at the Aeolian Islands, Italy: assessment of the vulnerability of buildings to tsunamis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dall'Osso

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The volcanic archipelago of the Aeolian Islands (Sicily, Italy is included on the UNESCO World Heritage list and is visited by more than 200 000 tourists per year. Due to its geological characteristics, the risk related to volcanic and seismic activity is particularly high. Since 1916 the archipelago has been hit by eight local tsunamis. The most recent and intense of these events happened on 30 December 2002. It was triggered by two successive landslides along the north-western side of the Stromboli volcano (Sciara del Fuoco, which poured approximately 2–3×107 m3 of rocks and debris into the Tyrrhenian Sea. The waves impacted across the whole archipelago, but most of the damage to buildings and infrastructures occurred on the islands of Stromboli (maximum run-up 11 m and Panarea.

    The aim of this study is to assess the vulnerability of buildings to damage from tsunamis located within the same area inundated by the 2002 event. The assessment is carried out by using the PTVA-3 Model (Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment, version 3. The PTVA-3 Model calculates a Relative Vulnerability Index (RVI for every building, based on a set of selected physical and structural attributes. Run-up values within the area inundated by the 2002 tsunami were measured and mapped by the Istituto Italiano di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV and the University of Bologna during field surveys in January 2003. Results of the assessment show that if the same tsunami were to occur today, 54 buildings would be affected in Stromboli, and 5 in Panarea. The overall vulnerability level obtained in this analysis for Stromboli and Panarea are "average"/"low" and "very low", respectively. Nonetheless, 14 buildings in Stromboli are classified as having a "high" or "average" vulnerability. For some buildings, we were able to validate the RVI scores calculated by the PTVA-3 Model through a qualitative comparison with photographs taken by INGV and

  14. Vulnerability of assessing water resources by the improved set pair analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Xiao-Hua

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has tremendously changed the hydrological processes with global warming. There are many uncertainties in assessing water resources vulnerability. To assess the water resources vulnerability rationally under climate change, an improved set pair analysis model is established, in which set pair analysis theory is introduced and the weights are determined by the analytic hierarchy process method. The index systems and criteria of water resources vulnerability assessment in terms of water cycle, socio-economy, and ecological environment are established based on the analysis of sensibility and adaptability. Improved set pair analysis model is used to assess water resource vulnerability in Ningxia with twelve indexes under four kinds of future climate scenarios. Certain and uncertain information quantity of water resource vulnerability is calculated by connection numbers in the improved set pair analysis model. Results show that Ningxia is higher vulnerability under climate change scenarios. Improved set pair analysis model can fully take advantage of certain and uncertain knowledge, subjective and objective information compared with fuzzy assessment model and artificial neural network model. The improved set pair analysis is an extension to the vulnerability assessment model of water resources system.

  15. How urban system vulnerabilities to flooding could be assessed to improve resilience and adaptation in spatial planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasi, Riccardo; Viavattene, Christophe; La Loggia, Goffredo

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards damage assets and infrastructure inducing disruptions to urban functions and key daily services. These disruptions may be short or long with a variable spatial scale of impact. From an urban planning perspective, measuring these disruptions and their consequences at an urban scale is fundamental in order to develop more resilient cities. Whereas the assessment of physical vulnerabilities and direct damages is commonly addressed, new methodologies for assessing the systemic vulnerability at the urban scale are required to reveal these disruptions and their consequences. Physical and systemic vulnerability should be measured in order to reflect the multifaceted fragility of cities in the face of external stress, both in terms of the natural/built environment and socio-economic sphere. Additionally, a systemic approach allows the consideration of vulnerability across different spatial scales, as impacts may vary and be transmitted across local, regional or national levels. Urban systems are spatially distributed and the nature of this can have significant effects on flood impacts. The proposed approach identifies the vulnerabilities of flooding within urban contexts, including both in terms of single elementary units (buildings, infrastructures, people, etc.) and systemic functioning (urban functions and daily life networks). Direct losses are appraised initially using conventional methodologies (e.g. depth-damage functions). This aims to both understand the spatial distribution of physical vulnerability and associated losses and, secondly, to identify the most vulnerable building types and ways to improve the physical adaptation of our cities, proposing changes to building codes, design principles and other municipal regulation tools. The subsequent systemic approach recognises the city as a collection of sub-systems or functional units (such as neighbourhoods and suburbs) providing key daily services for inhabitants (e.g. healthcare facilities

  16. Assessing the impact of sea-level rise on a vulnerable coastal community in Accra, Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwasi Appeaning Addo

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and its associated sea-level rise are expected to significantly affect vulnerable coastal communities. Although the extent of the impact will be localised, its assessment will adopt a monitoring approach that applies globally. The topography of the beach, the type of geological material and the level of human intervention will determine the extent of the area to be flooded and the rate at which the shoreline will move inland. Gleefe, a coastal community in Ghana, has experienced frequent flooding in recent times due to the increasing occurrence of storm surge and sea-level rise. This study used available geospatial data and field measurements to determine how the beach topography has contributed to the incidence of flooding at Gleefe. The topography is generally low-lying. Sections of the beach have elevations of around 1 m, which allows seawater to move inland during very high tide. Accelerated sea-level rise as predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC will destroy homes of the inhabitants and inundate the Densu wetlands behind the beach. Destruction of infrastructure will render the inhabitants homeless, whilst flooding of the wetlands will destroy the habitats of migratory birds and some endangered wildlife species such as marine turtle. Effective adaptation measures should be adopted to protect this very important coastal environment, the ecology of the wetlands and the livelihoods of the community dwellers.

  17. Optimal recovery sequencing for critical infrastructure resilience assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vugrin, Eric D.; Brown, Nathanael J. K.; Turnquist, Mark Alan (Cornell University, Ithaca, NY)

    2010-09-01

    Critical infrastructure resilience has become a national priority for the U. S. Department of Homeland Security. System resilience has been studied for several decades in many different disciplines, but no standards or unifying methods exist for critical infrastructure resilience analysis. This report documents the results of a late-start Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project that investigated the identification of optimal recovery strategies that maximize resilience. To this goal, we formulate a bi-level optimization problem for infrastructure network models. In the 'inner' problem, we solve for network flows, and we use the 'outer' problem to identify the optimal recovery modes and sequences. We draw from the literature of multi-mode project scheduling problems to create an effective solution strategy for the resilience optimization model. We demonstrate the application of this approach to a set of network models, including a national railroad model and a supply chain for Army munitions production.

  18. Heterogeneous Data Fusion Methods for Disaster Risk Assessment using Grid Infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kussul, Nataliia; Skakun, Sergii; Shelestov, Andrii

    2014-05-01

    index (VHI) derived from NOAA satellites, and the extreme value theory techniques. Drought vulnerability is assessed by estimating the crop areas and crop yield to quantify potential impact of a drought on crop production. Finally, drought hazard and vulnerability maps are fused to derive a drought risk map. [1] N.N. Kussul, B.V. Sokolov, Y.I. Zyelyk, V.A. Zelentsov, S.V. Skakun, and A.Yu. Shelestov, "Disaster Risk Assessment Based on Heterogeneous Geospatial Information," J. of Autom. and Inf. Sci., 42(12), pp. 32-45, 2010. [2] S. Skakun, N. Kussul, A. Shelestov, and O. Kussul, "Flood Hazard and Flood Risk Assessment Using a Time Series of Satellite Images: A Case Study in Namibia," Risk Analysis, 2013, doi: 10.1111/risa.12156. [3] L. Hluchy, N. Kussul, A. Shelestov, S. Skakun, O. Kravchenko, Y. Gripich, P. Kopp, E. Lupian, "The Data Fusion Grid Infrastructure: Project Objectives and Achievements," Computing and Informatics, vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 319-334, 2010.

  19. Climate Change: Vulnerability Assessment for Water Resources Management in South Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obeysekera, J.

    2008-12-01

    South Florida is home to over 7 million people and its population is projected to increase to over 10 million people by 2025 and possibly 12-15 million by 2050. Through Federal/State/Local partnerships, the Greater Everglades is being restored under numerous water resources management projects requiring large investments of time and money. Recent climate change projections as published in the most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have the potential to cause significant impacts on flood control and water supply functions of water resources management, and on existing and future ecosystem restoration projects in south Florida. More recent estimates of sea level rise for south Florida are much higher than those in the IPCC report and if such projections become a reality, consequences may be disastrous. It is extremely important to understand the extent of global projections for various emission scenarios, their ability to represent the climatology of local regions, and the potential vulnerabilities of both climate change and sea level rise on water resources management. Implications of natural variability of the climate and teleconnections in South Florida are understood with a reasonable degree of certainty. Recent emphasis on climate change due to human-induced impacts have generated new questions on the sustainability of coastal environments with a heightened concern for the success of large-scale environmental projects throughout South Florida. An assessment of the precipitation projections of the General Circulation Models (GCMs) shows that their ability to represent the landscape of Florida and predict historical climate patterns may be limited. In order to understand the vulnerability of the water management system in south Florida under changing precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns, a sensitivity analysis using a regional-scale, hydrologic simulation model was conducted. The results show the vulnerability of

  20. Assessing vulnerabilities. Y2K and nuclear fuel cycle facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As part of the IAEA activities concerned with Year 2000 (Y2K) problem special attention is paid to operation of nuclear fuel cycle facilities. The meeting organised by IAEA on this subject resulted in publishing the TECDOC-1087 entitled 'Potential Vulnerabilities of Nuclear Fuel Cycle Facilities to the Year 2000 Issue and Measures to address them'

  1. Vulnerability Assessment by Learning Attack Specifications in Graphs

    OpenAIRE

    Franqueira, Virginia N L; Lopes, Raul H. C.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents an evolutionary approach for learning attack specifications that describe attack scenarios. The objective is to find vulnerabilities in computer networks which minimise the cost of an attack with maximum impact. Although we focus on Insider Threat, the proposed approach applies to networks in general, including social networks and computer grid.

  2. EVALUATION OF VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT IN SYSTEM FROM HACKERS IN CYBER SECURITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.Suma Christal Mary

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Vulnerability is very essential in cyber security related mechanisms. The usage of this vulnerability is to identify the attacks over the cyber space system. This term become increased the challenges in cyberspace system in large areas. Interdependencies between computer communication system and the physical infrastructure also become more complex as information technologies are further integrated into devices and networks. Vulnerability causes due to ethical hacking, Trojan attacks, logical bombing. In the recent days firewalls are eliminate the various cyber attacks. The usage of filtering algorithm prevent from E-mail bombing. To secure the server system we can avoid hacking. The above countermeasures are identifying the attacks and improve the efficiency.

  3. A Multi-view Framework to Assess Spatial Data Infrastructures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crompvoets, J.W.H.C.; Rajabifard, A.; Loenen, van B.; Delgado Fernandez, T.

    2008-01-01

    There is growing interest internationally in the role that Spatial Data Infrastructures SDIs play as key tools in supporting sustainable development. SDIs, as defined in the context of this book, are network-based national solutions to provide easy, consistent and effective access to geographic info

  4. Livelihood Vulnerability Assessment Of Farmers and Nomads in Eastern Ecotone of Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, J.; Zhang, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Livelihood vulnerability assessment provides a scientific basis for anti-poverty of people and regional sustainable development in vulnerable area. Although there are massive discussions on concept of vulnerability, it is still difficult to make it quantitative and to carry out comprehensive appraise. Vulnerability assessments based on sustainable livelihood frame are widely accepted in case studies for attentions to vulnerable groups. However, these case studies are always on regional scale and never reflect how climate change affects people's livelihood and adaptive capability of people. It is necessary to seek vulnerable assessment index system and means based on livelihood process of local people. This paper develops a livelihood vulnerability assessment index system on the basis of sustainable livelihood framework and appraises livelihood vulnerability values of 11 townships, using data of 879 sample households. Livelihood vulnerability assessment index system reflects main risks, livelihood assets and adaptation strategies of local people and government. The results show that livelihood vulnerability level of plateau region is higher than that of mountain to plateau region and mountain gorge region. Manzhang Township in plateau region is the most vulnerable township and nomads there cannot cope with risks of climate change, meadow degeneration and herbs degradation. Upper part of mountain to plateau region and the whole plateau region have high livelihood vulnerability values and local nomads would not cope with risks if no measures are taken by government. The driving forces of livelihood vulnerability include strikes of risks and deficiency of livelihood assets and adaptive capability. Farmers and nomads in high mountain gorge region and lower part of mountain to plateau region can cope with these risks, meanwhile, there are more employment opportunities in second and tertiary industries are needed to help them realize livelihood diversification. Therefore

  5. Climate change planning for the Great Plains : Wildlife vulnerability assessment & recommendations for land and grazing management

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This report is the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GP LCC) Vulnerability Assessment Report The purpose of the GP LCC is to conduct applied science...

  6. A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for native Hawaiian plants

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — One common way to conduct species vulnerability assessments (VA) to climate change (CC) is to model species distributions and predict CC-related range shifts....

  7. Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of Extreme Weather Events- A Case Study from Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fakhruddin, S.; Mukand, M. S.; Kawasaki, A.; Webster, P. J.

    2013-12-01

    Assessment of hazard, vulnerability and risk of extreme weather are essential in order to inform and implement appropriate adaptation/prevention/mitigation strategies. Due to complex nature and uncertainties in future climate change predictions, it is not feasible to detail assessment of vulnerability at detailed scales for potential hazard and risk. Though different approaches and methods exist for running hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment, but still difficult to address all physical science, engineering, and social science research. In this study, we try to discuss on the human vulnerability and risk assessment approaches, tools and techniques of natural hazard due to extreme weather events (i.e. floods, cyclone). We analyzed different approaches and methods of vulnerability and risk assessment for flood hazard based on medium (1-10 days) and seasonal (1-3 months) ensembles probabilistic forecasts. The multiple weather ensembles (EPS) forecasts of European Center for Medium Range Forecasts (ECMWF) and downscaled Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3) forecasts data were used to set up hydrological model. Due to high uncertainty in forecasts information, results summarized that data and inherent low resolutions of the information are major constrains for details comprehensive assessment. Risk and vulnerability rises to be based on multi-scale and cross-scale analyses, considering resilience dimensions and provide innovative tools for understanding, assessing and communicating probabilistic information to the users for decision making. The sectoral responses were developed with possible impacts scenarios based on uncertainty ranges to choose the most robust solution.

  8. On the Science-Policy Bridge: Do Spatial Heat Vulnerability Assessment Studies Influence Policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Tanja; Chuang, Wen-Ching; McGregor, Glenn

    2015-10-01

    Human vulnerability to heat varies at a range of spatial scales, especially within cities where there can be noticeable intra-urban differences in heat risk factors. Mapping and visualizing intra-urban heat vulnerability offers opportunities for presenting information to support decision-making. For example the visualization of the spatial variation of heat vulnerability has the potential to enable local governments to identify hot spots of vulnerability and allocate resources and increase assistance to people in areas of greatest need. Recently there has been a proliferation of heat vulnerability mapping studies, all of which, to varying degrees, justify the process of vulnerability mapping in a policy context. However, to date, there has not been a systematic review of the extent to which the results of vulnerability mapping studies have been applied in decision-making. Accordingly we undertook a comprehensive review of 37 recently published papers that use geospatial techniques for assessing human vulnerability to heat. In addition, we conducted an anonymous survey of the lead authors of the 37 papers in order to establish the level of interaction between the researchers as science information producers and local authorities as information users. Both paper review and author survey results show that heat vulnerability mapping has been used in an attempt to communicate policy recommendations, raise awareness and induce institutional networking and learning, but has not as yet had a substantive influence on policymaking or preventive action. PMID:26512681

  9. On the Science-Policy Bridge: Do Spatial Heat Vulnerability Assessment Studies Influence Policy?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanja Wolf

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Human vulnerability to heat varies at a range of spatial scales, especially within cities where there can be noticeable intra-urban differences in heat risk factors. Mapping and visualizing intra-urban heat vulnerability offers opportunities for presenting information to support decision-making. For example the visualization of the spatial variation of heat vulnerability has the potential to enable local governments to identify hot spots of vulnerability and allocate resources and increase assistance to people in areas of greatest need. Recently there has been a proliferation of heat vulnerability mapping studies, all of which, to varying degrees, justify the process of vulnerability mapping in a policy context. However, to date, there has not been a systematic review of the extent to which the results of vulnerability mapping studies have been applied in decision-making. Accordingly we undertook a comprehensive review of 37 recently published papers that use geospatial techniques for assessing human vulnerability to heat. In addition, we conducted an anonymous survey of the lead authors of the 37 papers in order to establish the level of interaction between the researchers as science information producers and local authorities as information users. Both paper review and author survey results show that heat vulnerability mapping has been used in an attempt to communicate policy recommendations, raise awareness and induce institutional networking and learning, but has not as yet had a substantive influence on policymaking or preventive action.

  10. Environmental impact assessment: Classification of ecosystems with respect to vulnerability for radioactive contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This presentation recommends that an environmental impact assessment should be made ahead of any major action plan in the environment. The final document should point out to the authorities and public that expertise has been systematised in order to predict the effects of an action plan on the environment. This should be done for different scenarios and time scales. A useful tool for an environmental impact assessment is GIS, Geographic Information Systems. It can be used to identify areas and ecosystems that are vulnerable to radioactive contamination. To predict the radiation dose to humans and biota, a vulnerability assessment considers population density, land use, economic resources and the chemical and biological pathways of radionuclides in different ecosystems. Supplemented with knowledge of consumption and dietary habits a vulnerability assessment can be used to identify critical groups and to calculate doses to these groups. For ecosystems, vulnerability can be quantified by using critical loads for radioactive contamination or flux of radionuclides from an area. One criterion for critical load can be that intervention limits for food products should not be exceeded. If the critical load is low, this indicates a high vulnerability. The flux from an area can also identify vulnerability and it can be used to calculate collective dose. The vulnerability approach is a methodology that can be used to select areas that are suitable for treatment, transport and disposal of radioactive waste

  11. Climate change vulnerability of native and alien freshwater fishes of California: a systematic assessment approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter B Moyle

    Full Text Available Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1 current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction and (2 likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction. Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California's native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (<22°C are particularly likely to go extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish

  12. Vulnerability of assessing water resources by the improved set pair analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Yang Xiao-Hua; He Jun; Di Cong-Li; Li Jian-Qiang

    2014-01-01

    Climate change has tremendously changed the hydrological processes with global warming. There are many uncertainties in assessing water resources vulnerability. To assess the water resources vulnerability rationally under climate change, an improved set pair analysis model is established, in which set pair analysis theory is introduced and the weights are determined by the analytic hierarchy process method. The index systems and criteria of water resources ...

  13. Assessing Coastal Composite Vulnerability Indices on Seasonal Change in Phetchaburi, Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oraon Sarajit

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aims of this study were to apply the Geo-information technology for coastal vulnerability assessment of Phetchaburi coast, which depended on seasonal changed (by influence of Southwest monsoon and Northeast monsoon. The assessment uses a coastal vulnerability index (CVI, consists of a physical environment vulnerability index (PVI and the socio-economic vulnerability index (SVI with 9 variables; coastal slope, mean tidal ranges, average wave height, rates of coastal erosion, population density, land use, built-up, transportation and coastal protection measures. The results showed, the different during monsoon had an indecisive difference effect on mean tidal ranges, average wave height, and changes in the coastline. However, the monsoon had effected to sand sediment of the beach. That increased in the Southwest monsoon and decreased in the Northeast monsoon. The level of vulnerability of the coastal area was shown by a map of CVI, with high coastal vulnerability areas having a size of 4.6 square kilometers (10.89% of the coastal surveillance area, mainly in Pak-Thale, Bang-Keaw and Chao-Samran. The moderate and the low coastal vulnerability areas have size of 31.29 square kilometers and 6.97 square kilometers, respectively. The variables that influence the vulnerability are land use, slope, erosion rate and population density.

  14. Assessing social vulnerability in African urban context. The challenge to cope with climate change induced hazards by communities and households

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabisch, Sigrun; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie

    2013-04-01

    Social vulnerability assessment remains central in discourses on global climatic change and takes a more pertinent meaning considering that natural disasters in African countries continue to deeply affect human settlements and destroys human livelihoods. In recent years, in particular large territories and growing cities have experienced severe weather events. Among them are river and flash floods, affecting the social and economic assets of local populations. The impact of the damage related to floods is not only perceptible during seasonal events but also during unexpected larger disasters which place a particular burden on local population and institutions to adapt effectively to increasing climatic pressures. Important features for social vulnerability assessment are the increasing severity of the physical damages, the shortcoming of social and technical infrastructure, the complexity of land management/market, the limited capacity of local institutions and last but not least the restricted capacities of local population to resist these events. Understanding vulnerability implies highlighting and interlinking relevant indicators and/or perceptions encompassed in four main dimensions: social, institutional, physical and attitudinal vulnerability. Case studies in Dar es Salaam, Ouagadougou and Addis Ababa were carried out to obtain insights into the context-related conditions, behavior routines and survival networks in urban areas in west and east Africa. Using a combination of tools (e.g. focus group discussions, transect walks, interviews) we investigated in close cooperation with African partners how households and communities are being prepared to cope with, as well as to recover from floods. A comprehensive process of dealing with floods can be described based on sequential attributes concerning i) Anticipation before a flood occurs, ii) Resistance and coping activities during a flood event and, iii) Recovery and reconstruction afterwards. A participatory

  15. Seismic vulnerability assessment of chemical plants through probabilistic neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A chemical industrial plant represents a sensitive presence in a region and, in case of severe damage due to earthquake actions, its impact on social life and environment can be devastating. From the structural point of view, chemical plants count a number of recurrent elements, which are classifiable in a discrete set of typological families (towers, chimneys, cylindrical or spherical or prismatic tanks, pipes etc.). The final aim of this work is to outline a general procedure to be followed in order to assign a seismic vulnerability estimate to each element of the various typological families. In this paper, F.E. simulations allowed to create a training set, which has been used to train a probabilistic neural system. A sample application has concerned the seismic vulnerability of simple spherical tanks

  16. Climate Vulnerability Assessments : An Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability, Risk, and Adaptation in Albania’s Power Sector

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2009-01-01

    Energy security is a key concern in Albania, which relies on hydropower for about 90 percent of its electricity production. While renewable energy resources like hydropower play a fundamental role in moving the world towards a low-carbon economy, they are also vulnerable to climatic conditions. Climate variability already affects Albania's energy production to a considerable extent, and cl...

  17. STRUCTURAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MASONRY BUILDINGS IN TURKEY

    OpenAIRE

    Korkmaz, Kasım Armagan; CARHOGLU, Asuman Isıl

    2011-01-01

    Turkey is located in an active seismic zone. Mid to high rise R/C building and low rise masonry buildings are very common construction type in Turkey. In recent earthquakes, lots of existing buildings got damage including masonry buildings. Masonry building history in Turkey goes long years back. For sure, it is an important structure type for Turkey. Therefore, earthquake behavior and structural vulnerability of masonry buildings are crucial issues for Turkey as a earthquake prone country. I...

  18. Assessment of carotid plaque vulnerability using structural and geometrical determinants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Because many acute cerebral ischemic events are caused by rupture of vulnerable carotid atheroma and subsequent thrombosis, the present study used both idealized and patient-specific carotid atheromatous plaque models to evaluate the effect of structural determinants on stress distributions within plaque. Using a finite element method, structural analysis was performed using models derived from in vivo high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of carotid atheroma in 40 non-consecutive patients (20 symptomatic, 20 asymptomatic). Plaque components were modeled as hyper-elastic materials. The effects of varying fibrous cap thickness, lipid core size and lumen curvature on plaque stress distributions were examined. Lumen curvature and fibrous cap thickness were found to be major determinants of plaque stress. The size of the lipid core did not alter plaque stress significantly when the fibrous cap was relatively thick. The correlation between plaque stress and lumen curvature was significant for both symptomatic (p=0.01; correlation coefficient: 0.689) and asymptomatic patients (p=0.01; correlation coefficient: 0.862). Lumen curvature in plaques of symptomatic patients was significantly larger than those of asymptomatic patients (1.50±1.0 mm-1 vs 1.25±0.75 mm-1; p=0.01). Specific plaque morphology (large lumen curvature and thin fibrous cap) is closely related to plaque vulnerability. Structural analysis using high-resolution MRI of carotid atheroma may help in detecting vulnerable atheromatous plaque and aid the risk stratification of patients with carotid disease. (author)

  19. Assessment of floodplain vulnerability during extreme Mississippi River flood 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwell, Allison E; Zhu, Zhenduo; Dutta, Debsunder; Greenberg, Jonathan A; Kumar, Praveen; Garcia, Marcelo H; Rhoads, Bruce L; Holmes, Robert R; Parker, Gary; Berretta, David P; Jacobson, Robert B

    2014-01-01

    Regional change in the variability and magnitude of flooding could be a major consequence of future global climate change. Extreme floods have the capacity to rapidly transform landscapes and expose landscape vulnerabilities through highly variable spatial patterns of inundation, erosion, and deposition. We use the historic activation of the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway during the Mississippi and Ohio River Flooding of 2011 as a scientifically unique stress experiment to analyze indicators of floodplain vulnerability. We use pre- and postflood airborne Light Detection and Ranging data sets to locate erosional and depositional hotspots over the 540 km(2) agricultural Floodway. While riparian vegetation between the river and the main levee breach likely prevented widespread deposition, localized scour and deposition occurred near the levee breaches. Eroded gullies nearly 1 km in length were observed at a low ridge of a relict meander scar of the Mississippi River. Our flow modeling and spatial mapping analysis attributes this vulnerability to a combination of erodible soils, flow acceleration associated with legacy fluvial landforms, and a lack of woody vegetation to anchor soil and enhance flow resistance. Results from this study could guide future mitigation and adaptation measures in cases of extreme flooding. PMID:24512322

  20. Coastal vulnerability assessment of Puducherry coast, India using analytical hierarchical process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mani Murali, R.; Ankita, M.; Amrita, S.; Vethamony, P.

    2013-03-01

    Increased frequency of natural hazards such as storm surge, tsunami and cyclone, as a consequence of change in global climate, is predicted to have dramatic effects on the coastal communities and ecosystems by virtue of the devastation they cause during and after their occurrence. The tsunami of December 2004 and the Thane cyclone of 2011 caused extensive human and economic losses along the coastline of Puducherry and Tamil Nadu. The devastation caused by these events highlighted the need for vulnerability assessment to ensure better understanding of the elements causing different hazards and to consequently minimize the after-effects of the future events. This paper advocates an Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) based approach to coastal vulnerability studies as an improvement to the existing methodologies for vulnerability assessment. The paper also encourages the inclusion of socio-economic parameters along with the physical parameters to calculate the coastal vulnerability index using AHP derived weights. Seven physical-geological parameters (slope, geomorphology, elevation, shoreline change, sea level rise, significant wave height and tidal range) and four socio-economic factors (population, Land-use/Land-cover (LU/LC), roads and location of tourist places) are considered to measure the Physical Vulnerability Index (PVI) as well as the Socio-economic Vulnerability Index (SVI) of the Puducherry coast. Based on the weights and scores derived using AHP, vulnerability maps are prepared to demarcate areas with very low, medium and high vulnerability. A combination of PVI and SVI values are further utilized to compute the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI). Finally, the various coastal segments are grouped into the 3 vulnerability classes to obtain the final coastal vulnerability map. The entire coastal extent between Muthiapet and Kirumampakkam as well as the northern part of Kalapet is designated as the high vulnerability zone which constitutes 50% of the

  1. Coastal vulnerability assessment of Puducherry coast, India, using the analytical hierarchical process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mani Murali, R.; Ankita, M.; Amrita, S.; Vethamony, P.

    2013-12-01

    As a consequence of change in global climate, an increased frequency of natural hazards such as storm surges, tsunamis and cyclones, is predicted to have dramatic affects on the coastal communities and ecosystems by virtue of the devastation they cause during and after their occurrence. The tsunami of December 2004 and the Thane cyclone of 2011 caused extensive human and economic losses along the coastline of Puducherry and Tamil Nadu. The devastation caused by these events highlighted the need for vulnerability assessment to ensure better understanding of the elements causing different hazards and to consequently minimize the after- effects of the future events. This paper demonstrates an analytical hierarchical process (AHP)-based approach to coastal vulnerability studies as an improvement to the existing methodologies for vulnerability assessment. The paper also encourages the inclusion of socio-economic parameters along with the physical parameters to calculate the coastal vulnerability index using AHP-derived weights. Seven physical-geological parameters (slope, geomorphology, elevation, shoreline change, sea level rise, significant wave height and tidal range) and four socio-economic factors (population, land use/land cover (LU/LC), roads and location of tourist areas) are considered to measure the physical vulnerability index (PVI) as well as the socio-economic vulnerability index (SVI) of the Puducherry coast. Based on the weights and scores derived using AHP, vulnerability maps are prepared to demarcate areas with very low, medium and high vulnerability. A combination of PVI and SVI values are further utilized to compute the coastal vulnerability index (CVI). Finally, the various coastal segments are grouped into the 3 vulnerability classes to obtain the coastal vulnerability map. The entire coastal extent between Muthiapet and Kirumampakkam as well as the northern part of Kalapet is designated as the high vulnerability zone, which constitutes 50% of the

  2. Performance indicators for assessing the effectiveness of national infrastructures for radiation safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A two-level quantitative assessment scheme for the national radiation safety infrastructure is proposed. It provides a comprehensive, concise and immediately comparable overview of the infrastructure for radiation safety in a number of countries. The scheme consists of a generic grading of performance indicators, a set of infrastructure components and assigned parameters that are assessed. This quantitative assessment scheme has been used, on a trial basis, to evaluate a number of national infrastructures for radiation safety based on information available in the IAEA. On the basis of this limited trial, it is concluded that the scheme will provide a valuable quantitative assessment tool that meets its objectives. It is also suitable to assist in clarifying the objectives of the Model Projects. (author)

  3. A New Approach to Feasibility Risk Assessment within Transport Infrastructure Appraisal

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2013-01-01

    This paper introduces a new approach of applying feasibility risk assessment within transport project infrastructure appraisal. The procedure is based upon quantitative risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation in combination with conventional cost-benefit analysis converting deterministic benefit...

  4. Vulnerability assessment of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Li

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Being bordered by the South China Sea and with long coastline, the coastal zone of Guangdong Province is often under severe risk of storm surges, as one of a few regions in China which is seriously threatened by storm surges. This article systematically analyzes the vulnerability factors of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong (from Yangjing to Shanwei. Five vulnerability assessment indicators of hazard-bearing bodies are proposed, which are social economic index, land use index, eco-environmental index, coastal construction index, and disaster-bearing capability index. Then storm surge vulnerability assessment index system in the coastal area of Guangdong is established. Additionally, the international general mode about coastal vulnerability assessment is improved, and the vulnerability evolution model of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong is constructed. Using ArcGIS, the vulnerability zoning map of storm surges in the study region is drawn. Results show that there is the highest degree of storm surge vulnerability in Zhuhai, Panyu, and Taishan; second in Zhongshan, Dongguan, Huiyang, and Haifeng; third in Jiangmen, Shanwei, Yangjiang, and Yangdong; fourth in Baoan, Kaiping, and Enping; and lowest in Guangzhou, Shunde, Shenzhen, and Longgang. This study on the risk of storm surges in these coastal cities can guide the land use of coastal cities in the future, and provide scientific advice for the government to prevent and mitigate the storm surge disasters. It has important theoretical and practical significance.

  5. A New Systematic Approach to Vulnerability Assessment of Innovation Capability of Construction Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingxiao Zhang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to study the vulnerability of construction enterprises’ innovation capabilities (CEIC and their respective primary influencing factors. This paper proposed a vulnerability system framework of CEIC, designed two comprehensive assessments for analysis, namely the entropy and set pair analysis method (E-SPA and the principle cluster analysis and SPA method (P-SPA, and compared grades to verify the vulnerability assessments. Further, the paper quantitatively assessed the major influencing factors in facilitating management, reducing vulnerability, and improving the ability of construction enterprises to respond to changes in the construction industry. The results showed that vulnerability could be effectively and systematically evaluated using E-SPA. However, managing or reducing entrepreneurial sensitivity and improving the ability to respond was critical to supporting sustainable CEIC. The case studies included in this paper suggested that in ensuring sustainable CEIC, companies should concentrate on highly educated human resources, R&D investments, intellectual property related innovations, and government support. This research provided a practical framework and established a sustainable strategy for companies to manage their vulnerability in developing innovation capability. In addition, this research presented an innovative and effective way to quantitatively analyze vulnerability which offered a foundation to signify a new paradigm shift in construction sustainable development.

  6. Rapid regional-scale assessments of socio-economic vulnerability to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Erin F.; Lieske, Scott N.; Keys, Noni; Smith, Timothy F.

    2016-03-01

    Assessing socio-economic vulnerability to climate change impacts to support regional decision-making is conceptually and practically challenging. We report on research that tested a rapid assessment approach of socio-economic vulnerability in Australia’s natural resource management regions. The approach focuses on regionally important economic sectors, identified using existing datasets, which are likely to be sensitive to climate change impacts. Disaggregated spatial representations of factors known to be associated with vulnerability function as multiple lines of evidence for highlighting intra-regional hotspots of high potential vulnerability. Our results show that a small number of factors based upon contextually relevant empirical evidence offers a low-cost, rapid assessment process, which is readily transferable across regions and provides end-users with guidance for interpreting the results within the context of regional conditions.

  7. Vulnerability assessment of medieval civic towers as a tool for retrofitting design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The seismic vulnerability of an ancient civic bell-tower is studied. Rather than seeing it as an intermediate stage toward a risk analysis, the assessment of vulnerability is here pursued for the purpose of optimizing the retrofit design. The vulnerability curves are drawn by carrying out a single time history analysis of a model calibrated on the basis of experimental data. From the results of this analysis, the medians of three selected performance parameters are estimated, and they are used to compute, for each of them, the probability of exceeding or attaining the three corresponding levels of light, moderate and severe damage. The same numerical model is then used to incorporate the effects of several retrofitting solutions and to re-estimate the associated vulnerability curves. The ultimate goal is to provide a numerical tool able to drive the optimization process of a retrofit design by the comparison of the vulnerability estimates associated with the different retrofitting solutions

  8. Climate change vulnerabilities- an integrated assessment in Pyramid Lake Paiute Indian Reservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gautam, M. R.; Chief, K.; Wilde, K.; Smith, W.

    2011-12-01

    There are increasing concerns of potential climate change impacts that may place the Truckee River Basin in Nevada under unprecedented stress. We hypothesized that Pyramid Lake, a terminal lake of Truckee River, is prone to climatic as well as non-climatic stressors stemming from cumulative impacts from upstream urban areas and activities. Thus climate change may impair the ability of a major downstream water user, the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe (PLPT), to cope and adapt. The conventional approach in assessing vulnerability primarily focuses on hazards or biophysical vulnerabilities, such as water availability, floods, and drought impact. However, we found it inadequate to address the overall vulnerability of the PLPT. Thus in addition to biophysical vulnerabilities, intrinsic and external vulnerabilities were considered such as socio-economic variables (e.g. adaptive capacity) and policy and legal drivers (e.g. water rights). We proposed an elaborate framework for an integrated vulnerability assessment by adapting IPCC framework for vulnerability assessment, the Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptive Capacity, and applied it to PLPT. Analysis of projected climate change dataset pointed towards increased incidences of floods and droughts and a warming trend over the whole basin with a higher rate at the lower basin in the future. In effort to understand how climatic trends trigger the vulnerability of PLPT, a multi-pronged approach was employed to understand key tribal livelihood assets including an in-depth analysis of the adaptive capacity of PLPT, a climate change survey, and a historical analysis of water conflict and negotiation. Results of the survey identified key natural assets as the lake, endangered fish, rangeland, and wetlands. The framework of a casual-loop diagram was developed in a system dynamic model that incorporated opinions of tribal stakeholders and other experts to evaluate how potential future climate changes might impact the endangered Cui ui fish

  9. Approaches of Seismic Vulnerability Assessments in Near Real Time Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frolova, Nina; Larionov, Valery; Bonnin, Jean; Ugarov, Alexander

    2014-05-01

    Data on seismic vulnerability of existing building stock and other elements at risk are rather important for near real time earthquake loss estimations by global systems. These data together with information on regional peculiarities of seismic intensity attenuation and other factors contribute greatly to the reliability of strong event consequences estimated in emergency mode. There are different approaches for vulnerability functions' development and the empirical one is most often used. It is based on analysis of engineering consequences of past strong events when well documented descriptions of damage to different building types and other elements at risk are available for the earthquake prone area under consideration. In the case such data do not exist the information from macroseismic scales may be used. Any approach of vulnerability functions' development requires the proper classification of buildings and structures under consideration. According to national and international building codes, as well as macroseismic scales different buildings' classifications exist. As a result the global systems, such as Extremum and PAGER, as well as GEM project make use of the non-unified information on building stock distribution worldwide. The paper addresses the issues of buildings' classification and city models in terms of these classifications. Distribution of different buildings types in Extremum and PAGER/GEM systems is analyzed for earthquake prone countries. The comparison of city models revealed significant differences which influence greatly earthquake loss estimations in emergency mode. The paper describes the practice of city models' development which make use of space images and web technology in social networks. It is proposed to use the G8 country (and other) initiatives related to open data and transparency aimed at improving building stock distribution and global population databases.

  10. Study on the Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment in Sanjiang Plain in Northeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Y.; Tang, W. K.; Liu, C.

    2012-12-01

    The Sanjiang Plain is located in eastern part of China's Heilongjiang Province.It's total area is 109 000 km2, with cultivated land area being 3.6677 million hm2. It is a major national commodity grain base. Rice planting area in Sanjiang Plain has been increasing year by year. Groundwater exploitation is increasing rapidly as a result of rapid increase of paddy field area. It is necessary to research and analyze spatial diversity of groundwater pollution vulnerability for Sanjiang Plain, so as to fulfill the goal of integrated planning, rational utilization of land and water resource, avoiding or minimizing groundwater contamination, and protecting grain security of China. Based on the commonly used DRASTIC method internationally, and according to hydrogeology, land use and other characteristics of Sanjiang Plain, this paper establishes groundwater vulnerability assessment index system. Since the Sanjiang Plain is an area that gives priority to agriculture, and impact of agricultural land and agricultural activity on groundwater vulnerability can not be ignored. Two indicators of agricultural land use rate (L) and population density (P) are increased in the DRASTC index system, the remaining 5 indicators are groundwater depth (D), aquifer net recharge(R), aquifer media type (A), soil type(S), aquifer hydraulic conductivity (C). Taking ArcGis as a calculation analysis platform to assess groundwater vulnerability of the Sanjiang Plain, by using hierarchical analysis method of the fuzzy mathematics method to calculate each index weigh of evaluation vulnerability. This paper applies 6 levels of assessment standard as follows: vulnerability index DI 8 stands for extremely vulnerable. Groundwater vulnerably contaminated area is delineated based on the groundwater vulnerability spatial distribution of Sanjiang Plain. Reasonable land use plan should be made, and strictly groundwater protection measures should be taken to reduce the risk of groundwater contamination.

  11. Department of Energy Plutonium ES ampersand H Vulnerability Assessment Savannah River Site interim compensatory measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Savannah River Site (SRS) has recently completed a self-assessment of potential vulnerabilities associated with plutonium and other transuranic materials stored at the site. An independent Working Group Assessment Team (WGAT) appointed by DOE/ES ampersand H also performed an independent assessment, and reviewed and validated the site self-assessment. The purpose of this report is to provide a status of interim compensatory measures at SRS to address hazards in advance of any corrective actions. ES ampersand H has requested this status for all vulnerabilities ranked medium or higher with respect to potential consequences to workers, environment, and the public

  12. A method proposal for cumulative environmental impact assessment based on the landscape vulnerability evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cumulative environmental impact assessment deals with the occasional use in practical application of environmental impact assessment process. The main reasons are the difficulty of cumulative impact identification caused by lack of data, inability to measure the intensity and spatial effect of all types of impacts and the uncertainty of their future evolution. This work presents a method proposal to predict cumulative impacts on the basis of landscape vulnerability evaluation. For this purpose, qualitative assessment of landscape ecological stability is conducted and major vulnerability indicators of environmental and socio-economic receptors are specified and valuated. Potential cumulative impacts and the overall impact significance are predicted quantitatively in modified Argonne multiple matrixes while considering the vulnerability of affected landscape receptors and the significance of impacts identified individually. The method was employed in the concrete environmental impact assessment process conducted in Slovakia. The results obtained in this case study reflect that this methodology is simple to apply, valid for all types of impacts and projects, inexpensive and not time-consuming. The objectivity of the partial methods used in this procedure is improved by quantitative landscape ecological stability evaluation, assignment of weights to vulnerability indicators based on the detailed characteristics of affected factors, and grading impact significance. - Highlights: • This paper suggests a method proposal for cumulative impact prediction. • The method includes landscape vulnerability evaluation. • The vulnerability of affected receptors is determined by their sensitivity. • This method can increase the objectivity of impact prediction in the EIA process

  13. A method proposal for cumulative environmental impact assessment based on the landscape vulnerability evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pavlickova, Katarina; Vyskupova, Monika, E-mail: vyskupova@fns.uniba.sk

    2015-01-15

    Cumulative environmental impact assessment deals with the occasional use in practical application of environmental impact assessment process. The main reasons are the difficulty of cumulative impact identification caused by lack of data, inability to measure the intensity and spatial effect of all types of impacts and the uncertainty of their future evolution. This work presents a method proposal to predict cumulative impacts on the basis of landscape vulnerability evaluation. For this purpose, qualitative assessment of landscape ecological stability is conducted and major vulnerability indicators of environmental and socio-economic receptors are specified and valuated. Potential cumulative impacts and the overall impact significance are predicted quantitatively in modified Argonne multiple matrixes while considering the vulnerability of affected landscape receptors and the significance of impacts identified individually. The method was employed in the concrete environmental impact assessment process conducted in Slovakia. The results obtained in this case study reflect that this methodology is simple to apply, valid for all types of impacts and projects, inexpensive and not time-consuming. The objectivity of the partial methods used in this procedure is improved by quantitative landscape ecological stability evaluation, assignment of weights to vulnerability indicators based on the detailed characteristics of affected factors, and grading impact significance. - Highlights: • This paper suggests a method proposal for cumulative impact prediction. • The method includes landscape vulnerability evaluation. • The vulnerability of affected receptors is determined by their sensitivity. • This method can increase the objectivity of impact prediction in the EIA process.

  14. Application of Satellite Gravimetry for Water Resource Vulnerability Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodell, Matthew

    2012-01-01

    The force of Earth's gravity field varies in proportion to the amount of mass near the surface. Spatial and temporal variations in the gravity field can be measured via their effects on the orbits of satellites. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) is the first satellite mission dedicated to monitoring temporal variations in the gravity field. The monthly gravity anomaly maps that have been delivered by GRACE since 2002 are being used to infer changes in terrestrial water storage (the sum of groundwater, soil moisture, surface waters, and snow and ice), which are the primary source of gravity variability on monthly to decadal timescales after atmospheric and oceanic circulation effects have been removed. Other remote sensing techniques are unable to detect water below the first few centimeters of the land surface. Conventional ground based techniques can be used to monitor terrestrial water storage, but groundwater, soil moisture, and snow observation networks are sparse in most of the world, and the countries that do collect such data rarely are willing to share them. Thus GRACE is unique in its ability to provide global data on variations in the availability of fresh water, which is both vital to life on land and vulnerable to climate variability and mismanagement. This chapter describes the unique and challenging aspects of GRACE terrestrial water storage data, examples of how the data have been used for research and applications related to fresh water vulnerability and change, and prospects for continued contributions of satellite gravimetry to water resources science and policy.

  15. Incorporating HIV/AIDS Considerations into Vulnerability Assessments for Disaster Risk Reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gideon van Riet

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper briefly highlights the link between HIV/AIDS and vulnerability, the latter being a focus point of DRR. In particular it investigates in which ways HIV/AIDS contributes to the vulnerability (for the purposes of this discussion defined as the susceptibility of households to the negative effects of certain natural hazards, brought on by the interplay between various political, economic, social and environmental factors of households. Secondly, the paper investigates the possible measurement of HIV/AIDS in general vulnerability assessments used for the purposes of DRR, by evaluating the merit of certain indicators often used to target humanitarian aid.

  16. A Dynamic Vulnerability Map to Assess the Risk of Road Network Traffic Utilization

    CERN Document Server

    Nabaa, Michel; Dutot, Antoine; Olivier, Damien; Mallet, Pascal

    2009-01-01

    Le Havre agglomeration (CODAH) includes 16 establishments classified Seveso with high threshold. In the literature, we construct vulnerability maps to help decision makers assess the risk. Such approaches remain static and do take into account the population displacement in the estimation of the vulnerability. We propose a decision making tool based on a dynamic vulnerability map to evaluate the difficulty of evacuation in the different sectors of CODAH. We use a Geographic Information system (GIS) to visualize the map which evolves with the road traffic state through a detection of communities in large graphs algorithm.

  17. A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herslund, Lise Byskov; Jalyer, Fatameh; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie;

    2016-01-01

    strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding andthereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning...... potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing...

  18. Risk Assessment of Infrastructure System of Systems with Precursor Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zhenyu; Haimes, Yacov Y

    2016-08-01

    Physical infrastructure systems are commonly composed of interconnected and interdependent subsystems, which in their essence constitute system of systems (S-o-S). System owners and policy researchers need tools to foresee potential emergent forced changes and to understand their impact so that effective risk management strategies can be developed. We develop a systemic framework for precursor analysis to support the design of an effective and efficient precursor monitoring and decision support system with the ability to (i) identify and prioritize indicators of evolving risks of system failure; and (ii) evaluate uncertainties in precursor analysis to support informed and rational decision making. This integrated precursor analysis framework is comprised of three processes: precursor identification, prioritization, and evaluation. We use an example of a highway bridge S-o-S to demonstrate the theories and methodologies of the framework. Bridge maintenance processes involve many interconnected and interdependent functional subsystems and decision-making entities and bridge failure can have broad social and economic consequences. The precursor analysis framework, which constitutes an essential part of risk analysis, examines the impact of various bridge inspection and maintenance scenarios. It enables policy researchers and analysts who are seeking a risk perspective on bridge infrastructure in a policy setting to develop more risk informed policies and create guidelines to efficiently allocate limited risk management resources and mitigate severe consequences resulting from bridge failures. PMID:27575259

  19. A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of California's At-Risk Birds

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas Gardali; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; DiGaudio, Ryan T.; Comrack, Lyann A.

    2012-01-01

    Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified clim...

  20. Climate change and agricultural water resources: A vulnerability assessment of the Black Sea catchment

    OpenAIRE

    Baer, Roger; Rouholahnedjad, E.; Rahman, Kazi; K. C. Abbaspour; Lehmann, Anthony

    2015-01-01

    Agriculture in the Black Sea catchment is responsible for a considerable share of the area's total water withdrawal and the majority of its total water consumption. It therefore plays a key role in sustainable water resources management. However, in the future water resources will be exposed to climate change. This assessment aims at identifying the most vulnerable regions and to explain the reasons of this vulnerability. It is based on a combination of the well-known Driver–Pressure–State–Im...

  1. Data Quality Objectives Workbook for Assessing Chemical Vulnerability Potential in REDOX and U Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this data quality objective workbook is to present the rationale for selecting the sampling and characterization strategy that supports the assessment of the chemical vulnerabilities of the five tanks. Since characterization of the tanks' contents is likely to be expensive, a secondary goal was established to characterize the tank contents for proper waste designation and disposal at the same time the tanks are characterized for chemical vulnerability

  2. Risk and vulnerability analysis to coastal hazards : an approach to integrated assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Kaiser, Gunilla

    2006-01-01

    Recent flood disasters like the Tsunami in South East Asia or the tremendous impacts of hurricane Katrina have pointed out the special vulnerability of coastal zones. Climate change, associated with an accelerating sea level rise and an increase of extreme events, is assumed to aggravate flood risk in the future so that improved hazard response and adaptation strategies are required. In this thesis it is analyzed how vulnerability assessment can contribute to interdisciplinary efforts of impr...

  3. Coupled ground- and satellite-based assessment of regional evaporation and ecosystem vulnerability in tropical wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiler, M.; Schwerdtfeger, J.; Silveira, S. W. G. D.; Zeilhofer, P.

    2014-12-01

    Satellite information plays a key role in tropical wetland monitoring and management. It is used to shed light on inundation dynamics of floodplains, to improve the understanding about eco-hydrological characteristics of floodplain ecosystems, and to quantify a wetland's water balance. Seasonal wetlands in the tropics are very sensitive to changes in hydrological processes. Upstream land use alterations such as the installation of hydroelectric infrastructure or agricultural water withdrawal directly influence the ecosystem by changing the inundation dynamics. Large uncertainties due to missing in-situ measurements caused by remoteness complicate the quantification of a wetland's water balance, where evaporation is considered to be its major water flux. We developed a spatially explicit approach to quantify daily evaporation considering the impact of inundation dynamics as the dominant controls and assessed the vulnerability of the Brazilian Pantanal wetland against the background of human induced impacts on the inundation process. In a first step a widely used water index (mNDWI) was calculated from MODIS surface reflectance products (MOD09A1) to differentiate between land and water for dry and wet years comparing and validating it with two years of continual in-situ water level measurements at different locations in our study area in the Northern Pantanal. Later on, we used the mNDWI to determine the water available for evaporation based on a recently developed approach (Schwerdtfeger et al., 2014, HESSD) to simulate evaporation fluxes on a large spatial scale. To set our evaporation results in the context of ecosystem vulnerability we defined the range of wet and dry years in the Pantanal for the last twelve years by means of local precipitation data and calculated yearly evaporation with our new approach. Considering now alterations of the inundation extent determined by the mNDWI in our model input parameters, our approach allowed us to make propositions about

  4. Infrastructure Security of the Ural Regions: Assessment Technique and Diagnostic Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Arkadyevich Pykhov

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the infrastructure as one of the important elements of the economic system. Authors have considered the stages of formation of this concept in the scientific world, the ideas of a number of scientists on a role and place of infrastructure in the economic system are given. Short genesis of approaches to the description of infrastructure and to assignment of its functions to certain branches is created. The paper emphasized the importance of strengthening the infrastructural support to the transition of the economy to the machine mode of production. Two main methodological approaches describing the nature and content of infrastructure are allocated: branch-wise and functional. The author's technique of the assessment of infrastructure security of territories at the regional level is offered. A basis of this technique is the allocation of the set of special indicators which values allow to see the level of development of separate elements of infrastructure. Indicative analysis, which is the basis of the methods, allows to judge any phenomenon by comparing the current observed values with the previously accepted threshold levels. This comparison allows one to classify the observations on the scale of "norm-pre-crisis-crisis". The essential advantage of this method is the normalization of indicators, i.e. their reduction to one comparable conditional size. It allows to receive the assessment on certain blocks of indicators and a complex assessment on all set in general. Authors have allocated four basic elements of infrastructure, such as transport, communications and telecommunications, utilities and health care availability. In total, the technique includes 21 indicators. The results of approbatory calculations with the author's method have revealed shortcomings in the infrastructure development of the Ural region. The article is a brief analysis of the data with the accents on the individual indicators and areas.

  5. Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species’ climate-change vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wade, Alisa A.; Hand, Brian K.; Kovach, Ryan; Luikart, Gordon; Whited, Diane; Muhlfeld, Clint C.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are valuable tools for assessing species’ vulnerability to climatic changes, yet failure to include measures of adaptive capacity and to account for sources of uncertainty may limit their effectiveness. Here, we provide a more comprehensive CCVA approach that incorporates all three elements used for assessing species’ climate change vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We illustrate our approach using case studies of two threatened salmonids with different life histories – anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and non-anadromous bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) – within the Columbia River Basin, USA. We identified general patterns of high vulnerability in low-elevation and southernmost habitats for both species. However, vulnerability rankings varied widely depending on the factors (climate, habitat, demographic, and genetic) included in the CCVA and often differed for the two species at locations where they were sympatric. Our findings illustrate that CCVA results are highly sensitive to data inputs and that spatial differences can complicate multi-species conservation. Our results highlight how CCVAs should be considered within a broader conceptual and computational framework for refining hypotheses, guiding research, and comparing plausible scenarios of species’ vulnerability for ongoing and projected climate change.

  6. Vulnerability assessment of urban ecosystems driven by water resources, human health and atmospheric environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Jing; Lu, Hongwei; Zhang, Yang; Song, Xinshuang; He, Li

    2016-05-01

    As ecosystem management is a hotspot and urgent topic with increasing population growth and resource depletion. This paper develops an urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment method representing a new vulnerability paradigm for decision makers and environmental managers, as it's an early warning system to identify and prioritize the undesirable environmental changes in terms of natural, human, economic and social elements. The whole idea is to decompose a complex problem into sub-problem, and analyze each sub-problem, and then aggregate all sub-problems to solve this problem. This method integrates spatial context of Geographic Information System (GIS) tool, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method, ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators, and socio-economic elements. Decision makers can find out relevant urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment results with different vulnerable attitude. To test the potential of the vulnerability methodology, it has been applied to a case study area in Beijing, China, where it proved to be reliable and consistent with the Beijing City Master Plan. The results of urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment can support decision makers in evaluating the necessary of taking specific measures to preserve the quality of human health and environmental stressors for a city or multiple cities, with identifying the implications and consequences of their decisions.

  7. Food Adulteration: From Vulnerability Assessment to New Analytical Solutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavin, Christophe; Cottenet, Geoffrey; Blancpain, Carine; Bessaire, Thomas; Frank, Nancy; Zbinden, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    Crises related to the presence of melamine in milk or horse meat in beef have been a wake-up call to the whole food industry showing that adulteration of food raw materials is a complex issue. By analysing the situation, it became clear that the risk-based approach applied to ensure the safety related to chemical contaminants in food is not adequate for food fraud. Therefore, a specific approach has been developed to evaluate adulteration vulnerabilities within the food chain. Vulnerabilities will require the development of new analytical solutions. Fingerprinting methodologies can be very powerful in determining the status of a raw material without knowing the identity of each constituent. Milk adulterated by addition of adulterants with very different chemical properties could be detected rapidly by Fourier-transformed mid-infrared spectroscopy (FT-mid-IR) fingerprinting technology. In parallel, a fast and simple multi-analytes liquid-chromatography tandem mass-spectrometry (LC/MS-MS) method has been developed to detect either high levels of nitrogen-rich compounds resulting from adulteration or low levels due to accidental contamination either in milk or in other sensitive food matrices. To verify meat species authenticity, DNA-based methods are preferred for both raw ingredients and processed food. DNA macro-array, and more specifically the Meat LCD Array have showed efficient and reliable meat identification, allowing the simultaneous detection of 32 meat species. While the Meat LCD Array is still a targeted approach, DNA sequencing is a significant step towards an untargeted one. PMID:27198809

  8. Assessing Vulnerability of Electricity Generation Under Potential Future Droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, E.; Tidwell, V. C.; Wigmosta, M. S.

    2014-12-01

    In the past few decades, the western US experienced increased sever, frequent, and prolonged droughts resulting in significant water availability issues, which raised questions as to how electricity sector might be vulnerable to future droughts. To improve our understanding of potential risks of electricity generation curtailment due to drought, an impact analysis was performed with a series of modeling tools including climate downscaling, competitive water-use calculator, hydrologic model for various hydrologic processes, and power-plant specific models. This presentation will demonstrate the predicted effects of potential droughts on power generation at a local level of the USGS 8-digit watersheds and individual power plants within the context of current and future characteristics of power system and water resource system.The study identified three potential drought scenarios based on historical drought records and projected climate changes from the GFDL and the PCM global climate models, for greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 defined by the IPCC. The potential impacts under these three drought scenarios were evaluated with a hydrologic model constructed for the Pacific Northwest River Basin and California River Basin. The hydrologic model incorporates competitive water uses, climate forcing data corresponding to each of drought scenarios, and all major reservoirs that are currently supporting water withdrawal for various sectors and hydroelectric power generation. The hydrologic responses to drought scenarios predicted for each of the USGS 8-digit watersheds and reservoirs are used as input to power-plant specific models to quantify potential risk of curtailment at each power plant. The key findings from this study will help to improve understanding of spatial distribution of vulnerable power plants and watersheds as well as the scale of potential reduction of electricity generation under various drought scenarios. Beyond impacts to the existing

  9. Practical Application Of A Model For Assessing The Criticality Of Railway Infrastructure Elements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Novotný

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Rail transport is an important sub-sector of transport infrastructure. Disruption of its operation due to emergencies can result in a reduction in functional parameters of provided services with consequent impacts on society. Identification of critical elements of this system enables its timely and effective protection. On that ground, the article presents a draft model for assessing the criticality of railway infrastructure elements. This model uses a systems approach and multicriteria semi-quantitative analysis with weighted criteria for calculating the criticality of individual elements of the railway infrastructure. In the conclusion, it presents a practical application of the proposed model including the discussion of results

  10. A climate change vulnerability assessment of California's at-risk birds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Gardali

    Full Text Available Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified climate vulnerability by scoring sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of an organism that make it vulnerable and exposure (the magnitude of climate change expected for each taxon. Using the combined sensitivity and exposure scores as an index, we ranked 358 avian taxa, and classified 128 as vulnerable to climate change. Birds associated with wetlands had the largest representation on the list relative to other habitat groups. Of the 29 state or federally listed taxa, 21 were also classified as climate vulnerable, further raising their conservation concern. Integrating climate vulnerability and California's Bird Species of Special Concern list resulted in the addition of five taxa and an increase in priority rank for ten. Our process illustrates a simple, immediate action that can be taken to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildlife.

  11. Vulnerability assessments, identity and spatial scale challenges in disaster-risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward R. Carr

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Current approaches to vulnerability assessment for disaster-risk reduction (DRR commonly apply generalised, a priori determinants of vulnerability to particular hazards in particular places. Although they may allow for policy-level legibility at high levels of spatial scale, these approaches suffer from attribution problems that become more acute as the level of analysis is localised and the population under investigation experiences greater vulnerability. In this article, we locate the source of this problem in a spatial scale mismatch between the essentialist framings of identity behind these generalised determinants of vulnerability and the intersectional, situational character of identity in the places where DRR interventions are designed and implemented. Using the Livelihoods as Intimate Government (LIG approach to identify and understand different vulnerabilities to flooding in a community in southern Zambia, we empirically demonstrate how essentialist framings of identity produce this mismatch. Further, we illustrate a means of operationalising intersectional, situational framings of identity to achieve greater and more productive understandings of hazard vulnerability than available through the application of general determinants of vulnerability to specific places and cases.

  12. Assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability to groundwater contamination in lahore, pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study was intended to map intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater contamination in Lahore using GIS based DRASTIC model. The final output of DRASTIC model was reclassified into three equal interval classes, corresponding to low, moderate and high vulnerability regions. Most of the study area was found to have low to moderate vulnerability, with 27.48% area of low, 66.48% of moderate and only 6.04% area of high vulnerability. Most of the drinking water wells are installed in the residential area of the city, which shows low chances of contamination due to deep water table and almost no recharge. However, an industrial drain is located in the high vulnerable area in the southeastern part of the study area. The previous studies are in agreement with vulnerability zones. Further to remove any doubt in the suitability of assigned weight, map removal sensitivity analysis had been carried out. The assessment of the sensitivity analysis had been made through visual as well as quantitative methods. Priority order for contribution of the parameters in the vulnerability for the study area is D>I>C>R>A>T>S. (author)

  13. Increasing Biofuel Deployment and Utilization through Development of Renewable Super Premium: Infrastructure Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moriarty, K.; Kass, M.; Theiss, T.

    2014-11-01

    A high octane fuel and specialized vehicle are under consideration as a market opportunity to meet federal requirements for renewable fuel use and fuel economy. Infrastructure is often cited as a barrier for the introduction of a new fuel. This report assesses infrastructure readiness for E25 (25% ethanol; 75% gasoline) and E25+ (more than 25% ethanol). Both above-ground and below-ground equipment are considered as are the current state of stations, codes and regulations, and materials compatibility.

  14. Coastal vulnerability assessment of Cape Cod National Seashore to sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammar-Klose, Erika S.; Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Thieler, E. Robert; Williams, S. Jeffress

    2003-01-01

    A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within the Cape Cod National Seashore (CACO). The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, shoreline change rates, mean tidal range and mean wave height. The rankings for each variable were combined and an index value calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. CACO consists of high glacial cliffs, beaches, sand spits, and salt marsh wetlands. The areas most vulnerable to sea-level rise are those with the lowest regional coastal slopes, geomorphologic types that are susceptible to inundation, and the highest rates of shoreline change. Most of CACO's infrastructure lies on high elevation uplands away from the shore; most high use areas are accessible by foot only. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers.

  15. Multi-scale quantitative vulnerability assessment of buildings towards debris-flows: an application to Fella River Basin, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liliana Ciurean, Roxana; Hussin, Haydar; Glade, Thomas; van Westen, Cees; Papathoma-Köhle, Maria

    2015-04-01

    In physical vulnerability assessments, selection of working tools and methods is dependent not only on practical applications or decision question and data availability, but also on the scale of investigation. The aim of this study is to implement and compare two methodologies for assessing vulnerability of buildings in Fella River Basin (Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Italy). In this region, a major rainfall event in August 2003 triggered more than a thousand debris flows and floods resulting in two casualties. Damages to buildings, communication and transport infrastructure exceeded 400 million euros of monetary losses. The approaches considered are developed based on two methods of estimating debris-flow intensities: (1) for the regional and local scale, the behavior and run-out of the flow event was reconstructed using numerical debris flow modeling (Flow-R and Flow2D, respectively) to generate physical outputs (extension, depth, impact pressure, velocities) and determine the areas where elements at risk can be impacted; (2) for the local scale, a second method uses orthophoto documentation acquired shortly after the 2003 event for determining the location of the debris deposition and its depth at each impacted building. An extensive building inventory comprising information about the material of construction, occupancy type and use was compiled by desktop mapping and field work. The significance of the calculated intensity values were investigated in terms of resulting physical damages which were quantified for each affected structure as the ratio between the monetary loss and the reconstruction value. Different empirical vulnerability curves were obtained as functions of debris flow depth and impact pressure, respectively. The obtained curves were lastly compared with existing ones from the literature and sources of uncertainty from data input and the models employed were studied and discussed. The results of this study can be applied to further local consequence

  16. 77 FR 32655 - Critical Infrastructure Partnership Advisory Council (CIPAC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-01

    ... protection security measures, incident response, recovery, infrastructure resilience; reconstituting critical..., vulnerability, risk mitigation, and infrastructure continuity information. Organizational Structure:...

  17. Spatial vulnerability assessment : methodology for the community and district level applied to floods in Buzi, Mozambique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Within this thesis a conceptual model is presented which allows for the definition of a vulnerability assessment according to its time and spatial scale and within a multi-dimensional framework, which should help to design and develop appropriate methodologies and adaptation of concepts for the required scale of implementation. Building on past experiences with participatory approaches in community mapping in the District of Buzi in Mozambique, the relevance of such approaches for a community-based disaster risk reduction framework is analysed. Finally, methodologies are introduced which allow the assessment of vulnerability and the prioritisation of vulnerability factors at the community level. At the district level, homogenous vulnerability regions are identified through the application of integrated modelling approaches which build on expert knowledge and weightings. A set of indicators is proposed, which allow the modelling of vulnerability in a data-scarce environment. In developing these different methodologies for the community and district levels, it has been identified that the monitoring of vulnerability and the identification of trends is essential to addressing the objective of a continuous and improved disaster risk management. In addition to the technical and methodological challenges discussed in this thesis, the commitment from different stakeholders and the availability of capacity in different domains is essential for the successful, practical implementation of the developed approaches. (author)

  18. Linking local vulnerability to climatic hazard damage assessment for integrated river basin management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Hung-Chih; Liu, Yi-Chung; Chien, Sung-Ying

    2015-04-01

    1. Background Major portions of areas in Asia are expected to increase exposure and vulnerability to climate change and weather extremes due to rapid urbanization and overdevelopment in hazard-prone areas. To prepare and confront the potential impacts of climate change and related hazard risk, many countries have implemented programs of integrated river basin management. This has led to an impending challenge for the police-makers in many developing countries to build effective mechanism to assess how the vulnerability distributes over river basins, and to understand how the local vulnerability links to climatic (climate-related) hazard damages and risks. However, the related studies have received relatively little attention. This study aims to examine whether geographic localities characterized by high vulnerability experience significantly more damages owing to onset weather extreme events at the river basin level, and to explain what vulnerability factors influence these damages or losses. 2. Methods and data An indicator-based assessment framework is constructed with the goal of identifying composite indicators (including exposure, biophysical, socioeconomic, land-use and adaptive capacity factors) that could serve as proxies for attributes of local vulnerability. This framework is applied by combining geographical information system (GIS) techniques with multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to evaluate and map integrated vulnerability to climatic hazards across river basins. Furthermore, to explain the relationship between vulnerability factors and disaster damages, we develop a disaster damage model (DDM) based on existing disaster impact theory. We then synthesize a Zero-Inflated Poisson regression model with a Tobit regression analysis to identify and examine how the disaster impacts and vulnerability factors connect to typhoon disaster damages and losses. To illustrate the proposed methodology, the study collects data on the vulnerability attributes of

  19. Geospatial approach for assessment of biophysical vulnerability to agricultural drought and its intra-seasonal variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sehgal, Vinay Kumar; Dhakar, Rajkumar

    2016-03-01

    The study presents a methodology to assess and map agricultural drought vulnerability during main kharif crop season at local scale and compare its intra-seasonal variations. A conceptual model of vulnerability based on variables of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity was adopted, and spatial datasets of key biophysical factors contributing to vulnerability were generated using remote sensing and GIS for Rajasthan State of India. Hazard exposure was based on frequency and intensity of gridded standardized precipitation index (SPI). Agricultural sensitivity was based on soil water holding capacity as well as on frequency and intensity of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)-derived trend adjusted vegetation condition index (VCITadj). Percent irrigated area was used as a measure of adaptive capacity. Agricultural drought vulnerability was derived separately for early, mid, late, and whole kharif seasons by composting rating of factors using linear weighting scheme and pairwise comparison of multi-criteria evaluation. The regions showing very low to extreme rating of hazard exposure, drought sensitivity, and agricultural vulnerability were identified at all four time scales. The results indicate that high to extreme vulnerability occurs in more than 50% of net sown area in the state and such areas mostly occur in western, central, and southern parts. The higher vulnerability is on account of non-irrigated croplands, moderate to low water holding capacity of sandy soils, resulting in higher sensitivity, and located in regions with high probability of rainfall deficiency. The mid and late season vulnerability has been found to be much higher than that during early and whole season. Significant correlation of vulnerability rating with food grain productivity, drought recurrence period, crop area damaged in year 2009 and socioeconomic indicator of human development index (HDI) proves the general soundness of methodology. Replication of this methodology

  20. Assessment of groundwater vulnerability and risk to pollution in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, Sangam; Semkuyu, Dickson John; Pandey, Vishnu P

    2016-06-15

    Groundwater vulnerability and risk assessment is a useful tool for groundwater pollution prevention and control. In this study, GIS based DRASTIC model have been used to assess intrinsic aquifer vulnerability to pollution whereas Groundwater Risk Assessment Model (GRAM) was used to assess the risk to groundwater pollution in the groundwater basin of Kathmandu Valley. Seven hydrogeological factors were used in DRASTIC model to produce DRASTIC Index (DI) map which represent intrinsic groundwater vulnerability to pollution of the area. The seven hydrogeological factors used were depth to water, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, impact of vadose zone, and hydraulic conductivity of aquifer. GIS based GRAM was used to produce likelihood of release of hazards, likelihood of detection of hazards, consequence of hazards and residual risk of groundwater contamination in terms of nitrate in the groundwater basin. It was found that more than 50% of the groundwater basin area in the valley is susceptible to groundwater pollution and these areas are mostly in Northern groundwater district Low and very low vulnerable areas account for only 13% and are located in Central and Southern groundwater districts. However after taking into account the barriers to groundwater pollution and likelihood of hazards release and detection, it was observed that most areas i.e. about 87% of the groundwater basin are at moderate residual risk to groundwater pollution. The resultant groundwater vulnerability and risk map provides a basis for policy makers and planner's ability to use information effectively for decision making at protecting the groundwater from pollutants. PMID:26971207

  1. On the use of IT investment assessment methods in the area of spatial data infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwirowicz-Rutkowska, Agnieszka

    2016-06-01

    One of the important issues concerning development of spatial data infrastructures (SDIs) is the carrying out of economic and financial analysis. It is essential to determine expenses and also assess effects resulting from the development and use of infrastructures. Costs and benefits assessment could be associated with assessment of the infrastructure effectiveness and efficiency as well as the infrastructure value, understood as the infrastructure impact on economic aspects of an organisational performance, both of an organisation which realises an SDI project and all users of the infrastructure. The aim of this paper is an overview of various assessment methods of investment as well as an analysis of different types of costs and benefits used for information technology (IT) projects. Based on the literature, the analysis of the examples of the use of these methods in the area of spatial data infrastructures is also presented. Furthermore, the issues of SDI projects and investments are outlined. The results of the analysis indicate usefulness of the financial methods from different fields of management in the area of SDI building, development and use. The author proposes, in addition to the financial methods, the adaptation of the various techniques used for IT investments and their development, taking into consideration the SDI specificity for the purpose of assessment of different types of costs and benefits and integration of financial aspects with non-financial ones. Among the challenges are identification and quantification of costs and benefits, as well as establishing measures which would fit the characteristics of the SDI project and artefacts resulting from the project realisation. Moreover, aspects of subjectivity and variability in time should be taken into account as the consequences of definite goals and policies as well as business context of organisation undertaking the project or using its artefacts and also investors.

  2. Establishment and Application of Assessment Indicator System of Agricultural Catastrophe Vulnerability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    To give play to the role of agricultural catastrophe risk fund in spreading agricultural catastrophe risk,we select natural conditions,economic conditions,social conditions,as the external vulnerability assessment indicators;select commodity rate of agricultural products,substitutability of agricultural products,the extent of agricultural products being related to the national economy and the people’s livelihood,as the internal vulnerability assessment indicators.We assign weight to indicators using Analytic Hierarchy Process,and establish assessment indicator system of agricultural catastrophe vulnerability,to analyze the compensation for losses of different agricultural products arising from agricultural catastrophe in different regions.And we take the case of rice in Sichuan Province,to demonstrate the role this indicator system.

  3. 77 FR 68795 - Protected Critical Infrastructure Information (PCII) Office Self-Assessment Questionnaire

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-16

    ... SECURITY Protected Critical Infrastructure Information (PCII) Office Self- Assessment Questionnaire AGENCY.... See 6 CFR 29.4(d). This questionnaire is designed to gather information from PCII Officers that will... Information (PCII) Office Self-Assessment Questionnaire. OMB Number: 1670-NEW. Frequency: Annually....

  4. Infrastructure assessment for disaster management using multi-sensor and multi-temporal remote sensing imagery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Butenuth, Matthias; Frey, Daniel; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg;

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, a new assessment system is presented to evaluate infrastructure objects such as roads after natural disasters in near-realtime. A particular aim is the exploitation of multi-sensorial and multi-temporal imagery together with further {GIS-}data in a comprehensive assessment framework...

  5. Systematic analysis of natural hazards along infrastructure networks using a GIS-tool for risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baruffini, Mirko

    2010-05-01

    Due to the topographical conditions in Switzerland, the highways and the railway lines are frequently exposed to natural hazards as rockfalls, debris flows, landslides, avalanches and others. With the rising incidence of those natural hazards, protection measures become an important political issue. However, they are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. Furthermore risks are distributed in space and time. Consequently, important decision problems to the public sector decision makers are derived. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Efficient protection alternatives can be obtained consequently considering the concept of integral risk management. Risk analysis, as the central part of risk management, has become gradually a generally accepted approach for the assessment of current and future scenarios (Loat & Zimmermann 2004). The procedure aims at risk reduction which can be reached by conventional mitigation on one hand and the implementation of land-use planning on the other hand: a combination of active and passive mitigation measures is applied to prevent damage to buildings, people and infrastructures. With a Geographical Information System adapted to run with a tool developed to manage Risk analysis it is possible to survey the data in time and space, obtaining an important system for managing natural risks. As a framework, we adopt the Swiss system for risk analysis of gravitational natural hazards (BUWAL 1999). It offers a complete framework for the analysis and assessment of risks due to natural hazards, ranging from hazard assessment for gravitational natural hazards, such as landslides, collapses, rockfalls, floodings, debris flows and avalanches, to vulnerability assessment and risk analysis, and the integration into land use planning at the cantonal and municipality level. The scheme is limited to the direct consequences of natural hazards. Thus, we develop a

  6. Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuur, E.A.G.; Abbott, B.W.; Bowden, W.B.; Brovkin, V.; Camill, P.; Canadell, J.G.; Chanton, J.P.; Chapin, F. S., III; Christensen, T.R.; Ciais, P.; Crosby, B.T.; Czimczik, C.I.; Grosse, G.; Harden, J.; Hayes, D.J.; Hugelius, G.; Jastrow, J.D.; Jones, J.B.; Kleinen, T.; Koven, C.D.; Krinner, G.; Kuhry, P.; Lawrence, D.M.; McGuire, A.D.; Natali, S.M.; O'Donnell, J. A.; Ping, C.-L.; Riley, W.J.; Rinke, A.; Romanovsky, V.E.; Sannel, A.B.K.; Schädel, C.; Schaefer, K.; Sky, J.; Subin, Z.M.; Tarnocai, C.; Turetsky, M.R.; Waldrop, M.P.; Anthony, K.M. Walter; Wickland, K.P.; Wilson, C.J.; Zimov, S.A.

    2013-01-01

    Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19–45 Pg C by 2040, 162–288 Pg C by 2100, and 381–616 Pg C by 2300 in CO2 equivalent using 100-year CH4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH4 even though CH4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing.

  7. Designing a graph-based approach to landscape ecological assessment of linear infrastructures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The development of major linear infrastructures contributes to landscape fragmentation and impacts natural habitats and biodiversity in various ways. To anticipate and minimize such impacts, landscape planning needs to be capable of effective strategic environmental assessment (SEA) and of supporting environmental impact assessment (EIA) decisions. To this end, species distribution models (SDMs) are an effective way of making predictive maps of the presence of a given species. In this paper, we propose to combine SDMs and graph-based representation of landscape networks to integrate the potential long-distance effect of infrastructures on species distribution. A diachronic approach, comparing distribution before and after the linear infrastructure is constructed, leads to the design of a species distribution assessment (SDA), taking into account population isolation. The SDA makes it possible (1) to estimate the local variation in probability of presence and (2) to characterize the impact of the infrastructure in terms of global variation in presence and of distance of disturbance. The method is illustrated by assessing the impact of the construction of a high-speed railway line on the distribution of several virtual species in Franche-Comté (France). The study shows the capacity of the SDA to characterize the impact of a linear infrastructure either as a research concern or as a spatial planning challenge. SDAs could be helpful in deciding among several scenarios for linear infrastructure routes or for the location of mitigation measures. -- Highlights: • Graph connectivity metrics were integrated into a species distribution model. • SDM was performed before and after the implementation of linear infrastructure. • The local variation of presence provides spatial indicators of the impact

  8. Designing a graph-based approach to landscape ecological assessment of linear infrastructures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Girardet, Xavier, E-mail: xavier.girardet@univ-fcomte.fr; Foltête, Jean-Christophe, E-mail: jean-christophe.foltete@univ-fcomte.fr; Clauzel, Céline, E-mail: celine.clauzel@univ-fcomte.fr

    2013-09-15

    The development of major linear infrastructures contributes to landscape fragmentation and impacts natural habitats and biodiversity in various ways. To anticipate and minimize such impacts, landscape planning needs to be capable of effective strategic environmental assessment (SEA) and of supporting environmental impact assessment (EIA) decisions. To this end, species distribution models (SDMs) are an effective way of making predictive maps of the presence of a given species. In this paper, we propose to combine SDMs and graph-based representation of landscape networks to integrate the potential long-distance effect of infrastructures on species distribution. A diachronic approach, comparing distribution before and after the linear infrastructure is constructed, leads to the design of a species distribution assessment (SDA), taking into account population isolation. The SDA makes it possible (1) to estimate the local variation in probability of presence and (2) to characterize the impact of the infrastructure in terms of global variation in presence and of distance of disturbance. The method is illustrated by assessing the impact of the construction of a high-speed railway line on the distribution of several virtual species in Franche-Comté (France). The study shows the capacity of the SDA to characterize the impact of a linear infrastructure either as a research concern or as a spatial planning challenge. SDAs could be helpful in deciding among several scenarios for linear infrastructure routes or for the location of mitigation measures. -- Highlights: • Graph connectivity metrics were integrated into a species distribution model. • SDM was performed before and after the implementation of linear infrastructure. • The local variation of presence provides spatial indicators of the impact.

  9. Vulnerability of Russian regions to natural risk: experience of quantitative assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Petrova

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the important tracks leading to natural risk prevention, disaster mitigation or the reduction of losses due to natural hazards is the vulnerability assessment of an 'at-risk' region. The majority of researchers propose to assess vulnerability according to an expert evaluation of several qualitative characteristics, scoring each of them usually using three ratings: low, average, and high. Unlike these investigations, we attempted a quantitative vulnerability assessment using multidimensional statistical methods. Cluster analysis for all 89 Russian regions revealed five different types of region, which are characterized with a single (rarely two prevailing factor causing increase of vulnerability. These factors are: the sensitivity of the technosphere to unfavorable influences; a 'human factor'; a high volume of stored toxic waste that increases possibility of NDs with serious consequences; the low per capita GRP, which determine reduced prevention and protection costs; the heightened liability of regions to natural disasters that can be complicated due to unfavorable social processes. The proposed methods permitted us to find differences in prevailing risk factor (vulnerability factor for the region types that helps to show in which direction risk management should focus on.

  10. Towards an empirical vulnerability function for use in debris flow risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Fuchs

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available In quantitative risk assessment, risk is expressed as a function of the hazard, the elements at risk and the vulnerability. From a natural sciences perspective, vulnerability is defined as the expected degree of loss for an element at risk as a consequence of a certain event. The resulting value is dependent on the impacting process intensity and the susceptibility of the elements at risk, and ranges from 0 (no damage to 1 (complete destruction. With respect to debris flows, the concept of vulnerability – though widely acknowledged – did not result in any sound quantitative relationship between process intensities and vulnerability values so far, even if considerable loss occurred during recent years.

    To close this gap and establish this relationship, data from a well-documented debris flow event in the Austrian Alps was used to derive a quantitative vulnerability function applicable to buildings located on the fan of the torrent. The results suggest a second order polynomial function to fit best to the observed damage pattern. Vulnerability is highly dependent on the construction material used for exposed elements at risk. The buildings studied within the test site were constructed by using brick masonry and concrete, a typical design in post-1950s building craft in alpine countries. Consequently, the presented intensity-vulnerability relationship is applicable to this construction type within European mountains. However, a wider application of the presented method to additional test sites would allow for further improvement of the results and would support an enhanced standardisation of the vulnerability function.

  11. COSIMA - A New Decision Support System for the Assessment of Large Transport Infrastructure Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Jensen, Anders Vestergaard; Holvad, Torben;

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a new proto-type decision support system named COSIMA-DSS for composite method for assessment - decision support system. This userfriendly system makes it possible for decision makers to assess large infrastructure projects and take special account of various uncertainties in a...... features of the COSIMA-DSS model as a useful decision support tool. It is finally concluded that appraisal of large infrastructure projects can be effectively supported by dealing with uncertainty issues in accordance with the described principles....

  12. Vulnerability Assessment for a Complex Structure Using Vibration Response Induced by Impact Load

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This work presents a vulnerability assessment procedure for a complex structure using vibration characteristics. The structural behavior of a three-dimensional framed structure subjected to impact forces was predicted using the spectral element method. The Timoshenko beam function was applied to simulate the impact wave propagations induced by a high-velocity projectile at relatively high frequencies. The interactions at the joints were analyzed for both flexural and longitudinal wave propagations. Simulations of the impact energy transfer through the entire structure were performed using the transient displacement and acceleration responses obtained from the frequency analysis. The kill probabilities of the crucial components for an operating system were calculated as a function of the predicted acceleration amplitudes according to the acceptable vibration levels. Following the proposed vulnerability assessment procedure, the vulnerable positions of a three-dimensional combat vehicle with high possibilities of damage generation of components by impact loading were identified from the estimated vibration responses

  13. Quantitative assessment of Vulnerability of Forest ecosystem to Climate Change in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byun, J.; Lee, W.; Choi, S.; Oh, S.; Climate Change Model Team

    2011-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the vulnerability of forest ecosystem to climate change in Korea using outputs of vegetation models(HyTAG and MC1) and socio-ecological indicators. Also it suggested adaptation strategies in forest management through analysis of three vulnerability components: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. For the model simulation of past years(1971-2000), the climatic data was prepared by the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA). In addition, for the future simulation, the Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model(MM5) coupling with atmosphere-ocean circulation model(ECHO-G) provide the future climatic data under the A1B scenarios. HyTAG (Hydrological and Thermal Analogy Groups), korean model of forest distribution on a regional-scale, could show extent of sensitivity and adaptive capacity in connection with changing frequency and changing direction of vegetation. MC1 model could provide variation and direction of NPP(Net Primary Production) and SCS(Soil Carbon Storage). In addition, the sensitivity and adaptation capacity were evaluated for each. Besides indicators from models, many other indicators such as financial affairs and number of officers were included in the vulnerability components. As a result of the vulnerability assessment, south western part and Je-ju island of Korea had relatively high vulnerability. This finding is considered to come from a distinctively adaptative capacity. Using these results, we could propose actions against climate change and develop decision making systems on forest management.

  14. Security and Vulnerability Assessment of Social Media Sites: An Exploratory Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jensen; Zhao, Sherry Y.

    2015-01-01

    While the growing popularity of social media has brought many benefits to society, it has also resulted in privacy and security threats. The authors assessed the security and vulnerability of 50 social media sites. The findings indicate that most sites (a) posted privacy and security policies but only a minority stated clearly their execution of…

  15. Development of a Landscape Vulnerability Assessment Model in a Heightened Security Environment

    OpenAIRE

    Sena, Christine G.

    2003-01-01

    Do current landscape security practices provide sufficient protection to support building sustainability in the event of a terrorist attack? By exploring the relative effectiveness of current landscape security practices and methodologies, this thesis proposes to provide the landscape architect with sufficient background to define security objectives; participate in vulnerability assessments and design functional solutions while maintaining an open, aesthetically pleasing environment. This r...

  16. Assessment of wheat productivity vulnerability in Northern Kazakhstan under possible climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assessment of wheat productivity vulnerability in basic wheat-sowing regions of Kazakstan under possible climate changes is presented. Productivity calculation is carried out with use of CERES-Wheat numerical model under different scenarios of climate change, formed on the base of common atmospheric output data circulation models, received for conditions of carbon dioxide concentration doubling in atmosphere. (author)

  17. Combining demographic and genetic factors to assess population vulnerability in stream species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erin L, Landguth; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Jones, Leslie W.; Waples, Robin S.; Whited, Diane; Lowe, Winsor H.; Lucotch, John; Neville, Helen; Luikart, Gordon

    2014-01-01

    Accelerating climate change and other cumulative stressors create an urgent need to understand the influence of environmental variation and landscape features on the connectivity and vulnerability of freshwater species. Here, we introduce a novel modeling framework for aquatic systems that integrates spatially explicit, individual-based, demographic and genetic (demogenetic) assessments with environmental variables. To show its potential utility, we simulated a hypothetical network of 19 migratory riverine populations (e.g., salmonids) using a riverscape connectivity and demogenetic model (CDFISH). We assessed how stream resistance to movement (a function of water temperature, fluvial distance, and physical barriers) might influence demogenetic connectivity, and hence, population vulnerability. We present demographic metrics (abundance, immigration, and change in abundance) and genetic metrics (diversity, differentiation, and change in differentiation), and combine them into a single vulnerability index for identifying populations at risk of extirpation. We considered four realistic scenarios that illustrate the relative sensitivity of these metrics for early detection of reduced connectivity: (1) maximum resistance due to high water temperatures throughout the network, (2) minimum resistance due to low water temperatures throughout the network, (3) increased resistance at a tributary junction caused by a partial barrier, and (4) complete isolation of a tributary, leaving resident individuals only. We then applied this demogenetic framework using empirical data for a bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) metapopulation in the upper Flathead River system, Canada and USA, to assess how current and predicted future stream warming may influence population vulnerability. Results suggest that warmer water temperatures and associated barriers to movement (e.g., low flows, dewatering) are predicted to fragment suitable habitat for migratory salmonids, resulting in the loss

  18. Social vulnerability assessment using spatial multi-criteria analysis (SEVI model) and the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI model) - a case study for Bucharest, Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armaş, I.; Gavriş, A.

    2013-06-01

    In recent decades, the development of vulnerability frameworks has enlarged the research in the natural hazards field. Despite progress in developing the vulnerability studies, there is more to investigate regarding the quantitative approach and clarification of the conceptual explanation of the social component. At the same time, some disaster-prone areas register limited attention. Among these, Romania's capital city, Bucharest, is the most earthquake-prone capital in Europe and the tenth in the world. The location is used to assess two multi-criteria methods for aggregating complex indicators: the social vulnerability index (SoVI model) and the spatial multi-criteria social vulnerability index (SEVI model). Using the data of the 2002 census we reduce the indicators through a factor analytical approach to create the indices and examine if they bear any resemblance to the known vulnerability of Bucharest city through an exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA). This is a critical issue that may provide better understanding of the social vulnerability in the city and appropriate information for authorities and stakeholders to consider in their decision making. The study emphasizes that social vulnerability is an urban process that increased in a post-communist Bucharest, raising the concern that the population at risk lacks the capacity to cope with disasters. The assessment of the indices indicates a significant and similar clustering pattern of the census administrative units, with an overlap between the clustering areas affected by high social vulnerability. Our proposed SEVI model suggests adjustment sensitivity, useful in the expert-opinion accuracy.

  19. Quantitative Security Risk Assessment and Management for Railway Transportation Infrastructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flammini, Francesco; Gaglione, Andrea; Mazzocca, Nicola; Pragliola, Concetta

    Scientists have been long investigating procedures, models and tools for the risk analysis in several domains, from economics to computer networks. This paper presents a quantitative method and a tool for the security risk assessment and management specifically tailored to the context of railway transportation systems, which are exposed to threats ranging from vandalism to terrorism. The method is based on a reference mathematical model and it is supported by a specifically developed tool. The tool allows for the management of data, including attributes of attack scenarios and effectiveness of protection mechanisms, and the computation of results, including risk and cost/benefit indices. The main focus is on the design of physical protection systems, but the analysis can be extended to logical threats as well. The cost/benefit analysis allows for the evaluation of the return on investment, which is a nowadays important issue to be addressed by risk analysts.

  20. 78 FR 29375 - Protected Critical Infrastructure Information (PCII) Office Self-Assessment Questionnaire

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-20

    ... SECURITY Protected Critical Infrastructure Information (PCII) Office Self- Assessment Questionnaire AGENCY... Officer Questionnaire. DHS previously published this ICR in the Federal Register on November 26, 2012, for...). This questionnaire is designed to gather information from PCII Officers that can be used to...

  1. Parametric Assessment of Water Use Vulnerability Variations Using SWAT and Fuzzy TOPSIS Coupled with Entropy

    OpenAIRE

    Kwangjai Won; Eun-Sung Chung; Sung-Uk Choi

    2015-01-01

    This study assessed the water use vulnerability to include the uncertainty of the weighting values of evaluation criteria and the annual variations of performance values using fuzzy TOPSIS coupled with the Shannon entropy method. This procedure was applied to 12 major basins covering about 88% territory of South Korea. Hydrological components were simulated using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) of which parameters were optimally calibrated using SWAT-CUP model. The 15 indicators includ...

  2. Assessing Tsunami Vulnerabilities of Geographies with Shallow Water Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aras, Rifat; Shen, Yuzhong

    2012-01-01

    Tsunami preparedness is crucial for saving human lives in case of disasters that involve massive water movement. In this work, we develop a framework for visual assessment of tsunami preparedness of geographies. Shallow water equations (also called Saint Venant equations) are a set of hyperbolic partial differential equations that are derived by depth-integrating the Navier-Stokes equations and provide a great abstraction of water masses that have lower depths compared to their free surface area. Our specific contribution in this study is to use Microsoft's XNA Game Studio to import underwater and shore line geographies, create different tsunami scenarios, and visualize the propagation of the waves and their impact on the shore line geography. Most importantly, we utilized the computational power of graphical processing units (GPUs) as HLSL based shader files and delegated all of the heavy computations to the GPU. Finally, we also conducted a validation study, in which we have tested our model against a controlled shallow water experiment. We believe that such a framework with an easy to use interface that is based on readily available software libraries, which are widely available and easily distributable, would encourage not only researchers, but also educators to showcase ideas.

  3. Groundwater vulnerability assessment in agricultural areas using a modified DRASTIC model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadat-Noori, Mahmood; Ebrahimi, Kumars

    2016-01-01

    Groundwater contamination is a major concern for groundwater resource managers worldwide. We evaluated groundwater pollution potential by producing a vulnerability map of an aquifer using a modified Depth to water, Net recharge, Aquifer media, Soil media, Topography, Impact of vadose zone, and Hydraulic conductivity (DRASTIC) model within a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment. The proposed modification which incorporated the use of statistical techniques optimizes the rating function of the DRASTIC model parameters, to obtain a more accurate vulnerability map. The new rates were computed using the relationships between the parameters and point data chloride concentrations in groundwater. The model was applied on Saveh-Nobaran plain in central Iran, and results showed that the coefficient of determination (R (2)) between the point data and the relevant vulnerability map increased significantly from 0.52 to 0.78 after modification. As compared to the original DRASTIC model, the modified version produced better vulnerability zonation. Additionally, single-parameter and parameter removal sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the relative importance of each DRASTIC parameter. The results from both analyses revealed that the vadose zone is the most sensitive parameter influencing the variability of the aquifers' vulnerability index. Based on the results, for non-point source pollution in agricultural areas, using the modified DRASTIC model is efficient compared to the original model. The proposed method can be effective for future groundwater assessment and plain-land management where agricultural activities are dominant. PMID:26650205

  4. Infrastructure sensing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soga, Kenichi; Schooling, Jennifer

    2016-08-01

    Design, construction, maintenance and upgrading of civil engineering infrastructure requires fresh thinking to minimize use of materials, energy and labour. This can only be achieved by understanding the performance of the infrastructure, both during its construction and throughout its design life, through innovative monitoring. Advances in sensor systems offer intriguing possibilities to radically alter methods of condition assessment and monitoring of infrastructure. In this paper, it is hypothesized that the future of infrastructure relies on smarter information; the rich information obtained from embedded sensors within infrastructure will act as a catalyst for new design, construction, operation and maintenance processes for integrated infrastructure systems linked directly with user behaviour patterns. Some examples of emerging sensor technologies for infrastructure sensing are given. They include distributed fibre-optics sensors, computer vision, wireless sensor networks, low-power micro-electromechanical systems, energy harvesting and citizens as sensors. PMID:27499845

  5. Hybrid data mining-regression for infrastructure risk assessment based on zero-inflated data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Infrastructure disaster risk assessment seeks to estimate the probability of a given customer or area losing service during a disaster, sometimes in conjunction with estimating the duration of each outage. This is often done on the basis of past data about the effects of similar events impacting the same or similar systems. In many situations this past performance data from infrastructure systems is zero-inflated; it has more zeros than can be appropriately modeled with standard probability distributions. The data are also often non-linear and exhibit threshold effects due to the complexities of infrastructure system performance. Standard zero-inflated statistical models such as zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models do not adequately capture these complexities. In this paper we develop a novel method that is a hybrid classification tree/regression method for complex, zero-inflated data sets. We investigate its predictive accuracy based on a large number of simulated data sets and then demonstrate its practical usefulness with an application to hurricane power outage risk assessment for a large utility based on actual data from the utility. While formulated for infrastructure disaster risk assessment, this method is promising for data-driven analysis for other situations with zero-inflated, complex data exhibiting response thresholds.

  6. Cyber and physical infrastructure interdependencies.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phillips, Laurence R.; Kelic, Andjelka; Warren, Drake E.

    2008-09-01

    The goal of the work discussed in this document is to understand the risk to the nation of cyber attacks on critical infrastructures. The large body of research results on cyber attacks against physical infrastructure vulnerabilities has not resulted in clear understanding of the cascading effects a cyber-caused disruption can have on critical national infrastructures and the ability of these affected infrastructures to deliver services. This document discusses current research and methodologies aimed at assessing the translation of a cyber-based effect into a physical disruption of infrastructure and thence into quantification of the economic consequences of the resultant disruption and damage. The document discusses the deficiencies of the existing methods in correlating cyber attacks with physical consequences. The document then outlines a research plan to correct those deficiencies. When completed, the research plan will result in a fully supported methodology to quantify the economic consequences of events that begin with cyber effects, cascade into other physical infrastructure impacts, and result in degradation of the critical infrastructure's ability to deliver services and products. This methodology enables quantification of the risks to national critical infrastructure of cyber threats. The work addresses the electric power sector as an example of how the methodology can be applied.

  7. Coastal erosion vulnerability and risk assessment focusing in tourism beach use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrakis, George

    2016-04-01

    It is well established that the global market for tourism services is a key source of economic growth. Especially among Mediterranean countries, the tourism sector is one of the principal sectors driving national economies. With the majority of the mass tourism activities concentrated around coastal areas, coastal erosion, inter alia, poses a significant threat to coastal economies that depend heavily on revenues from tourism. The economic implications of beach erosion were mainly focused in the cost of coastal protection measures, instead of the revenue losses from tourism. For this, the vulnerability of the coast to sea level rise and associated erosion, in terms of expected land loss and economic activity need to be identified. To achieve this, a joint environmental and economic evaluation approach of the problem can provide a managerial tool to mitigate the impact of beach erosion in tourism, through realistic cost-benefit scenarios for planning alternative protection measures. Such a multipurpose tool needs to consider social, economic and environmental factors, which relationships can be better understood when distributed and analyzed along the geographical space. The risk assessment is implemented through the estimation of the vulnerability and exposure variables of the coast in two scales. The larger scale estimates the vulnerability in a regional level, with the use environmental factors with the use of CVI. The exposure variable is estimated by the use of socioeconomic factors. Subsequently, a smaller scale focuses on highly vulnerable beaches with high social and economic value. The assessment of the natural processes to the environmental characteristics of the beach is estimated with the use of the Beach Vulnerability Index (BVI) method. As exposure variable, the value of beach width that is capitalized in revenues is implemented through a hedonic pricing model. In this econometric modelling, Beach Value is related with economic and environmental

  8. Aquifer nitrate vulnerability assessment using positive and negative weights of evidence methods, Milan, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorichetta, Alessandro; Masetti, Marco; Ballabio, Cristiano; Sterlacchini, Simone

    2012-11-01

    Statistical methods are extensively used by hydrogeologists for assessing groundwater vulnerability. Several of these methods require to express the response variable as binary and to select a threshold distinguishing between positive and negative indicators of contamination that are usually identified as occurrences and non-occurrences, respectively. In this study, both occurrences and non-occurrences were alternately used as training points (TPs) in the weights of evidence (WofE) for assessing groundwater vulnerability to nitrate contamination of a shallow, unconfined, porous aquifer. This was done to better understand the individual role and the combined effect of explanatory variables in both protecting and exposing groundwater from and to nitrate contamination in the study area. The idea behind this approach is that, for a given aquifer, each explanatory variable should have an unequivocal effect on the physical process of groundwater contamination. As part of this study, a procedure for multi-class generalization was developed. Results showed that an evidential theme, even if it appears to be a statistically significant predictor of occurrences, can show an equivocal spatial relationship with the positive and the negative indicators of contamination due to the presence of a sampling bias between the TPs and the evidential theme. It was demonstrated that, if sampling bias is not recognized and corrected, the use of such evidential theme in the analysis could lead to obtain unreliable groundwater vulnerability maps. In order to deal with this issue, a quantitative methodology to correct the effects of sampling bias was successfully tested. Indeed, once the spatial relationships between the different type of TPs and the considered evidential themes were corrected for the effects of sampling bias, the WofE method was found to be a reliable modeling technique for assessing groundwater vulnerability and proved to be capable of identifying areas characterized by

  9. Coastal vulnerability assessment with the use of environmental and socio-economic indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrakis, George; Petrakis, Stelios; Vousdoukas, Mixalis; Ghionis, George; Hatziyanni, Eleni; Kampanis, Nikolaos

    2014-05-01

    Climate change has significant repercussions on the natural environment, triggering obvious changes in the natural processes that have a severe socio-economic impact on the coastal zone; where a great number of human activities are concentrated. So far, the estimation of coastal vulnerability was based primarily on the natural processes and less on socio-economic variables, which would assist in the identification of vulnerable areas. The present investigation proposes a methodology to examine the vulnerability of a highly touristic area in the Island of Crete to an expected sea level rise of up to ~40 cm by the year 2100, according to the A1B scenario of IPCC 2007. The methodology includes the combination of socio-economic indicators into a GIS-based coastal vulnerability index for wave-induced erosion. This approach includes three sub-indices that contribute equally to the overall index. The sub-indices refer to coastal forcing, socio-economic and coastal characteristics. All variables are ranked on a 1-5 scale with 5 indicating higher vulnerability. The socio-economic sub-index includes, as indicators, the population of the study area, cultural heritage sites, transport networks, land use and protection measures. The coastal forcing sub-index includes the frequency of extreme events, while the Coastal Vulnerability Index includes the geological variables (coastal geomorphology, historical coastline changes, and regional coastal slope) and the variables representing the marine processes (relative sea level rise, mean significant wave height, and tidal range). The main difficulty for the estimation of the index lies in assessing and ranking the socio-economic indicators. The whole approach was tested and validated through field and desktop studies, using as a case study the Elouda bay, Crete Isl., an area of high cultural and economic value, which combines monuments from ancient and medieval times, with a very high touristic development since the 1970s.

  10. Vulnerability Assessment of Agri-ecotourism Communities as Influenced by Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanilyn A. Hidalgo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The growth of tourism in the Philippines can be largely attributed to nature-based destinations but communities in these areas largely depend on farming and fishing to sustain their day-to-day needs.  The need to capacitate the community’s social and human capital in addressing climate change impacts to their livelihood, properties and natural environment is deemed necessary to lessen their vulnerability issues in the management of agriecotourism destinations. The study aimed to 1. characterize and rank hazards that are likely to affect the nature-based tourism communities, 2. describe the nature-based tourism communities’ current sensitivity and exposure to climate stresses; and 3. estimate future vulnerability and risks of nature-based tourism communities.  Three agri-ecotourism communities were selected using five criteria such as attraction uniqueness, hazard type, risk level, tourism dependency and market potential.  The areas were subjected to tourism vulnerability case assessment focusing on services and energy; human health; food, security, water and agriculture; business and continuity; and biodiversity and culture.   Calaguas Island’s top hazards are typhoon, drought and strong wind.  Pecuaria Farm’s main hazards are drought, rat infestation and grass fire while Bulusan Lake’s major hazards are heavy rains and ash falls brought by volcanic eruption.  Generally, vulnerability is high in the human health, services and energy sectors of tourism. The vulnerability of the three agri-ecotourism sites was intensified by factors that merely characterize the kind of community they have: a high marketing dependency, b poor political will, c low level of awareness and preparedness, d poor farming practices and e lack of tourism-related livelihood options. Destinations with functioning agricultural areas are the most affected sites due to an estimated increase in the temperature and increase in rainfall precipitations.  Poverty

  11. Assessment of the Green Infrastructure of Bucharest using CORINE and Urban Atlas data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandru-Ionuţ Petrişor

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Urban ecology provides the theoretical foundation for assessing the interaction between man and nature in cities. Nature seems to be reduced and malfunctioning, resulting into a decrease in the ecosystem services provided to humans. The new method, based on assessing the green infrastructure, is designed to replace monetary and carbon footprint assessments and be particularly relevant for the urban areas, which grow and change fast and are the main drivers of environmental changes. This study uses 2005-2007 CORINE and Urban Atlas data to look at Bucharest. The results show that, despite of the method, the area occupied by the green infrastructure represents about 1/3 of the total area, corresponding to 50 m2/person, although the green spaces only account for 6.5 m2/person, which is far below the European average (26 m2/person.

  12. Assessment on Social Vulnerabilities to Climate Change – a Study on South-Western Coastal Region of Bangladesh

    OpenAIRE

    Laila, Fariya

    2013-01-01

    According to the Global Climate Risk Index, Bangladesh with its densely populated coastal areas is considered as one of the most vulnerable countries affected by climate change in the world. In this context, the goal of this research is to assess the social vulnerability of the south-western coastal communities of the country,which is becoming more vulnerable, trying to understand the underlying social conditions of coastal people who are dependent on limited natural resources. To do so, vuln...

  13. Physical, social and institutional vulnerability assessment in small Alpine communities. Results of the SAMCO-ANR project in the Upper Guil Valley (French Southern Alps)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlier, Benoit; Dujarric, Constance; Frison-Bruno, Nikita; Puissant, Anne; Lissak, Candide; Madelin, Malika; Viel, Vincent; Bétard, François; Fort, Monique; Arnaud-Fassetta, Gilles

    2016-04-01

    The Upper Guil catchment is particularly prone to hydromorphological hazards such as torrential floods, debris flows, landslides or avalanches. Following the catastrophic events of the last 60 years (1957, 1978, 2000, and 2008), some measures were taken to reduce exposure to risks (engineering works, standards of construction, rescue training…). Nevertheless, the development of urban settlement in endangered areas and the obsolescence of the existing protective measures revealed the necessity to reassess the vulnerability of the different stakes exposed to hazards and to take into account of these various component parts of the vulnerability (not only physical but also social, etc.). In addition, catastrophic events should be more frequent in the French Southern Alps, according to the last GIEC report. In the frame of the SAMCO project designed for mountain risk assessment in a context of global change, we developed a systemic approach to assess three specific components of vulnerability - physical, social and institutional - for the six municipalities of the Upper Guil catchment (Ristolas, Abriès, Aiguilles, Château-Ville-Vieille, Molines-en-Queyras and St-Véran). Physical vulnerability, which represents total potential consequences of hazards on stakes, was estimated and mapped using a GIS model based on an empirical semi-quantitative indicator, the Potential Damage Index (PDI). This index allowed us to quantify and describe both direct (physical injury, structural and functional damage on buildings, network and land cover) and indirect consequences (socio-economic impacts) induced by hazards, by combining weighted parameters (age, state, material, function, etc.) reflecting the exposure of elements at risk. At least 1890 buildings, 367 km² of land cover and 902 km of linear infrastructure were considered. To assess social and institutional vulnerability our approach was based on questionnaires (5% of the total population investigated), interviews and

  14. Comparative analysis of climate change vulnerability assessments. Lessons from Tunisia and Indonesia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hammill, Anne; Bizikova, Livia; Dekens, Julie; McCandless, Matthew

    2013-03-15

    Vulnerability assessments (VAs) are central to shaping climate change adaptation decisions. They help to define the nature and extent of the threat that may harm a given human or ecological system, providing a basis for devising measures that will minimize or avoid this harm. Yet the wide variety of VA approaches can be confusing for practitioners, creating uncertainty about the ''right'' way to assess vulnerability. In an effort to provide some guidance on designing and conducting VAs, this paper reviews and compares VAs undertaken in Indonesia and Tunisia to distill key approaches, components and lessons. It begins with a general overview of definitions, approaches and challenges with conducting VAs, and then proposes a framework for analyzing and comparing them. The framework looks at four components of VAs: (1) Framing: where do we come from? (2) Process of conducting the VAs: how does it work? (3) Inputs: what is needed? (4) Outputs: what does it tell us? The framework is then applied to analyze the assessments carried out in Tunisia and Indonesia, from their respective framings of vulnerability to the outputs of the process. The report then concludes with observations on differences and similarities between the VAs, as well as lessons learned that can inform the design and execution of future assessments.

  15. Assessing the physical vulnerability of check dams through an empirical damage index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Dell'Agnese

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available A comprehensive analysis of flood risk in mountain streams has to include an assessment of the vulnerability of the protection systems, in addition to an assessment of the vulnerability of the constructed environment on alluvial fans and floodplains. Structures forming the protection systems are of a dual nature, i.e. they are designed to mitigate natural process-related hazards and, on the other hand, are prone to be damaged during their lifecycle by the same processes they should mitigate. Therefore, their effectiveness declines over time. Hence, the knowledge of how effectively control structures perform is essential for risk management. A procedure was developed to assess the physical vulnerability of check dams based on empirical evidence collected in South Tyrol, Northern Italy. A damage index defined on pre- and postevent comparisons of check dam conditions was evaluated for 362 structures in 18 mountain streams along with the relevant processes and the structural characteristics affecting it. Although the available dataset did not allow conclusive functional relationships between damage index and impact variables to be established, it was possible to assess the average expected residual functionality of check dams according to structure characteristics, and event type and intensity. These results may help plan appropriate check dam maintenance.

  16. Comparative analysis of climate change vulnerability assessments. Lessons from Tunisia and Indonesia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vulnerability assessments (VAs) are central to shaping climate change adaptation decisions. They help to define the nature and extent of the threat that may harm a given human or ecological system, providing a basis for devising measures that will minimize or avoid this harm. Yet the wide variety of VA approaches can be confusing for practitioners, creating uncertainty about the ''right'' way to assess vulnerability. In an effort to provide some guidance on designing and conducting VAs, this paper reviews and compares VAs undertaken in Indonesia and Tunisia to distill key approaches, components and lessons. It begins with a general overview of definitions, approaches and challenges with conducting VAs, and then proposes a framework for analyzing and comparing them. The framework looks at four components of VAs: (1) Framing: where do we come from? (2) Process of conducting the VAs: how does it work? (3) Inputs: what is needed? (4) Outputs: what does it tell us? The framework is then applied to analyze the assessments carried out in Tunisia and Indonesia, from their respective framings of vulnerability to the outputs of the process. The report then concludes with observations on differences and similarities between the VAs, as well as lessons learned that can inform the design and execution of future assessments.

  17. Health Effects of Coastal Storms and Flooding in Urban Areas: A Review and Vulnerability Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles-Guzman, Kizzy; Matte, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Coastal storms can take a devastating toll on the public's health. Urban areas like New York City (NYC) may be particularly at risk, given their dense population, reliance on transportation, energy infrastructure that is vulnerable to flood damage, and high-rise residential housing, which may be hard-hit by power and utility outages. Climate change will exacerbate these risks in the coming decades. Sea levels are rising due to global warming, which will intensify storm surge. These projections make preparing for the health impacts of storms even more important. We conducted a broad review of the health impacts of US coastal storms to inform climate adaptation planning efforts, with a focus on outcomes relevant to NYC and urban coastal areas, and incorporated some lessons learned from recent experience with Superstorm Sandy. Based on the literature, indicators of health vulnerability were selected and mapped within NYC neighborhoods. Preparing for the broad range of anticipated effects of coastal storms and floods may help reduce the public health burden from these events. PMID:23818911

  18. Assessment of Social Vulnerability Identification at Local Level around Merapi Volcano - A Self Organizing Map Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.; Maharani, Y. N.; Ki, S. J.

    2015-12-01

    The application of Self-Organizing Map (SOM) to analyze social vulnerability to recognize the resilience within sites is a challenging tasks. The aim of this study is to propose a computational method to identify the sites according to their similarity and to determine the most relevant variables to characterize the social vulnerability in each cluster. For this purposes, SOM is considered as an effective platform for analysis of high dimensional data. By considering the cluster structure, the characteristic of social vulnerability of the sites identification can be fully understand. In this study, the social vulnerability variable is constructed from 17 variables, i.e. 12 independent variables which represent the socio-economic concepts and 5 dependent variables which represent the damage and losses due to Merapi eruption in 2010. These variables collectively represent the local situation of the study area, based on conducted fieldwork on September 2013. By using both independent and dependent variables, we can identify if the social vulnerability is reflected onto the actual situation, in this case, Merapi eruption 2010. However, social vulnerability analysis in the local communities consists of a number of variables that represent their socio-economic condition. Some of variables employed in this study might be more or less redundant. Therefore, SOM is used to reduce the redundant variable(s) by selecting the representative variables using the component planes and correlation coefficient between variables in order to find the effective sample size. Then, the selected dataset was effectively clustered according to their similarities. Finally, this approach can produce reliable estimates of clustering, recognize the most significant variables and could be useful for social vulnerability assessment, especially for the stakeholder as decision maker. This research was supported by a grant 'Development of Advanced Volcanic Disaster Response System considering

  19. Stochastic Assessment of Water Resource System Vulnerability to Multi-year Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, J. W.; Borgomeo, E.; Farmer, C.; Pflug, G.; Hochrainer-Stigler, S.

    2015-12-01

    Global climate models suggest an increase in evapotranspiration in many parts of the world which is likely to cause an increase in drought severity, yet the weakness of climate models in modelling persistence of hydro-climatic variables and the uncertainties associated with regional climate projections mean that impact assessments based on climate model output may underestimate the risk of multi-year droughts. In this paper we propose a vulnerability-based approach to test water resource system response to drought. We generate a large number of synthetic streamflow series with different drought durations and deficits and use them as input to a water resource system model. Two approaches to drought simulation are presented: (1) using a numerical streamflow generator based upon an optimal bootstrapping algorithm and (2) using a copula to characterise the joint probability distribution streamflow characteristics in successive months. Droughts with longer durations and larger deficits than the observed record are generated (1) by changing the objective function of the optimisation and (2) by perturbing the copula dependence parameter and by adopting an importance sampling strategy for low flows. In this way potential climate-induced changes in monthly hydrological persistence are factored into the vulnerability analysis. The method is applied to the London water resource system (England) to investigate under which drought conditions severe water use restrictions would need to be imposed on water users. Results indicate that the water resource system is vulnerable to drought conditions outside the range of historical events. The vulnerability assessment results were coupled with climate model information to compare alternative water management options with respect to their vulnerability to increasingly long and severe drought conditions.

  20. A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for all native Hawaiian plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortini, Lucas; Price, Jonathan; Jacobi, James; Vorsino, Adam; Burgett, Jeff; Brinck, Kevin W.; Amidon, Fred; Miller, Steve; `Ohukani`ohi`a Gon, Sam, III; Koob, Gregory; Paxton, Eben

    2013-01-01

    In Hawaiʽi and elsewhere, research efforts have focused on two main approaches to determine the potential impacts of climate change on individual species: estimating species vulnerabilities and projecting responses of species to expected changes. We integrated these approaches by defining vulnerability as the inability of species to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., tolerate projected changes, endure in microrefugia, or migrate to new climate-compatible areas, but excluding evolutionary adaptation). To operationalize this response-based definition of species vulnerability within a landscape-based analysis, we used current and future climate envelopes for each species to define zones across the landscape: the toleration zone; the microrefugia zone; and the migration zone. Using these response zones we calculated a diverse set of factors related to habitat area, quality, and distribution for each species, including the amount of habitat protection and fragmentation and areas projected to be lost to sea-level rise. We then calculated the probabilities of each species exhibiting these responses using a Bayesian network model and determined the overall climate change vulnerability of each species by using a vulnerability index. As a first iteration of a response-based species vulnerability assessment (VA), our landscape-based analysis effectively integrates species-distribution models into a Bayesian network-based VA that can be updated with improved models and data for more refined analyses in the future. Our results show that the species most vulnerable to climate change also tend to be species of conservation concern due to non-climatic threats (e.g., competition and predation from invasive species, land-use change). Also, many of Hawaiʽi’s taxa that are most vulnerable to climate change share characteristics with species that in the past were found to be at risk of extinction due to non-climatic threats (e

  1. Vulnerability And Risk Assessment Using The Homeland-Defense Operational Planning System (HOPS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For over ten years, the Counterproliferation Analysis and Planning System (CAPS) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has been a planning tool used by U.S. combatant commands for mission support planning against foreign programs engaged in the manufacture of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). CAPS is endorsed by the Secretary of Defense as the preferred counterproliferation tool to be used by the nation's armed services. A sister system, the Homeland-Defense Operational Planning System (HOPS), is a new operational planning tool leveraging CAPS expertise designed to support the defense of the U.S. homeland. HOPS provides planners with a basis to make decisions to protect against acts of terrorism, focusing on the defense of facilities critical to U.S. infrastructure. Criticality of facilities, structures, and systems is evaluated on a composite matrix of specific projected casualty, economic, and sociopolitical impact bins. Based on these criteria, significant unidentified vulnerabilities are identified and secured. To provide insight into potential successes by malevolent actors, HOPS analysts strive to base their efforts mainly on unclassified open-source data. However, more cooperation is needed between HOPS analysts and facility representatives to provide an advantage to those whose task is to defend these facilities. Evaluated facilities include: refineries, major ports, nuclear power plants and other nuclear licensees, dams, government installations, convention centers, sports stadiums, tourist venues, and public and freight transportation systems. A generalized summary of analyses of U.S. infrastructure facilities is presented

  2. Vulnerability And Risk Assessment Using The Homeland-Defense Operational Planning System (HOPS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Durling, Jr., R L; Price, D E; Spero, K K

    2005-01-03

    For over ten years, the Counterproliferation Analysis and Planning System (CAPS) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has been a planning tool used by U.S. combatant commands for mission support planning against foreign programs engaged in the manufacture of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). CAPS is endorsed by the Secretary of Defense as the preferred counterproliferation tool to be used by the nation's armed services. A sister system, the Homeland-Defense Operational Planning System (HOPS), is a new operational planning tool leveraging CAPS expertise designed to support the defense of the U.S. homeland. HOPS provides planners with a basis to make decisions to protect against acts of terrorism, focusing on the defense of facilities critical to U.S. infrastructure. Criticality of facilities, structures, and systems is evaluated on a composite matrix of specific projected casualty, economic, and sociopolitical impact bins. Based on these criteria, significant unidentified vulnerabilities are identified and secured. To provide insight into potential successes by malevolent actors, HOPS analysts strive to base their efforts mainly on unclassified open-source data. However, more cooperation is needed between HOPS analysts and facility representatives to provide an advantage to those whose task is to defend these facilities. Evaluated facilities include: refineries, major ports, nuclear power plants and other nuclear licensees, dams, government installations, convention centers, sports stadiums, tourist venues, and public and freight transportation systems. A generalized summary of analyses of U.S. infrastructure facilities is presented.

  3. Quality of service provision assessment in the healthcare information and telecommunications infrastructures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babulak, Eduard

    2006-01-01

    The continuous increase in the complexity and the heterogeneity of corporate and healthcare telecommunications infrastructures will require new assessment methods of quality of service (QoS) provision that are capable of addressing all engineering and social issues with much faster speeds. Speed and accessibility to any information at any time from anywhere will create global communications infrastructures with great performance bottlenecks that may put in danger human lives, power supplies, national economy and security. Regardless of the technology supporting the information flows, the final verdict on the QoS is made by the end user. The users' perception of telecommunications' network infrastructure QoS provision is critical to the successful business management operation of any organization. As a result, it is essential to assess the QoS Provision in the light of user's perception. This article presents a cost effective methodology to assess the user's perception of quality of service provision utilizing the existing Staffordshire University Network (SUN) by adding a component of measurement to the existing model presented by Walker. This paper presents the real examples of CISCO Networking Solutions for Health Care givers and offers a cost effective approach to assess the QoS provision within the campus network, which could be easily adapted to any health care organization or campus network in the world. PMID:16137920

  4. Assessing agriculture vulnerabilities for the design of effective measures for adaptation to climate change (AVEMAC project)

    OpenAIRE

    DONATELLI Marcello; DUVEILLER BOGDAN GRÉGORY HENRY E; Fumagalli, Davide; SRIVASTAVA AMIT KUMAR; ZUCCHINI Antonio; FASBENDER DOMINIQUE; ANGILERI Vincenzo; Kay, Simon; JUSKEVICIUS Valentinas; Toth, Tibor; Haastrup, Palle; M'BAREK Robert; ESPINOSA GODED MARIA; CIAIAN PAVEL

    2012-01-01

    This final report of the AVEMAC study presents an assessment of the potential vulnerability of European agriculture to changing climatic conditions in the coming decades. The analysis is based on weather data generated from two contrasting realizations of the A1B emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the time horizons 2020 and 2030. These two realizations (obtained from two different general circulation models, downscaled using regional climate...

  5. Assessing social vulnerability to earthquake hazard: from statistical to spatial analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Frigerio, I; Strigaro, D; Mattavelli, M.; Mugnano, S.; Amicis, M.

    2015-01-01

    In the framework of classical natural hazard, multi-hazard and risk assessment the concept of vulnerability is referred to the fraction of the total risk value that could be loss after a specific adverse event (Mazzocchi et al., 2009). However, over the last few years the term ‘Vulnerability’ has been frequently cited in scientific literature in regard to different context, focusing particularly to social-economic aspects that influence societal conditions such as exposure, sensitivity, copin...

  6. Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Low-Rise Reinforced Concrete Buildings in Kathmandu, Nepal

    OpenAIRE

    Shah, Prateek Pratap; Pujol, Santiago

    2015-01-01

    In seismically active cities like Kathmandu, there often exists a need to assess the seismic vulnerability of a large number of poorly designed buildings within a short period of time. Traditional analysis techniques do not work because they require building data that are either inaccurate or unavailable. One alternative to traditional analysis techniques is to use simple correlations like the Priority Index. This index uses basic building information such as floor area, column area, and wall...

  7. Assessment of Human Health Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change in Cuba

    OpenAIRE

    Bultó, Paulo Lázaro Ortíz; Rodríguez, Antonio Pérez; Valencia, Alina Rivero; Vega, Nicolás León; Gonzalez, Manuel Díaz; Carrera, Alina Pérez

    2006-01-01

    In this study we assessed the potential effects of climate variability and change on population health in Cuba. We describe the climate of Cuba as well as the patterns of climate-sensitive diseases of primary concern, particularly dengue fever. Analyses of the associations between climatic anomalies and disease patterns highlight current vulnerability to climate variability. We describe current adaptations, including the application of climate predictions to prevent disease outbreaks. Finally...

  8. Modelling robust crop production portfolios to assess agricultural vulnerability to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Mitter, Hermine; Heumesser, Christine; Schmid, Erwin

    2014-01-01

    Agricultural vulnerability is assessed by (i) modelling climate change impacts on crop yields and gross margins, (ii) identifying crop production portfolios for adaptation, and (iii) analyzing the effect of agricultural policies and risk aversion on adaptive capacity. We combine, spatially explicit, a statistical climate change model, the bio-physical process model EPIC and a portfolio optimization model. Under climate change, optimal portfolios include higher shares of intensive crop managem...

  9. Assessment of groundwater vulnerability by combining drastic and susceptibility index: Application to Annaba superficial aquifer (Algeria)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedrati, Nassima; Djabri, Larbi; Chaffai, Hicham; Bougherira, Nabil

    2016-07-01

    Groundwater pollution due to anthropogenic activities is one of the major environmental problems in urban and industrial areas. The aim of this work is to propose a new integrated methodology to assess actual and forecasted groundwater vulnerability by combining Drastic and susceptibility index. The contamination susceptibility index (SI) at a given location was calculated by taking the product of the vulnerability DRASTIC index (VI) and the quality index (QI): SI=VI x QI. The superficial aquifer of Annaba plain was the study case proposed for the application of this methodology. The study revealed that the area with Very High vulnerability would increase 73 % in this superficial layer. This result can be explained by the susceptibility index map shows both hydrogeological and hydrochemical data related to the contamination problem including areas that should be taken into consideration during water management planning. The index map indicates that the most susceptible groundwater is occupies the majority of the study area. The validity of the DRASTIC and the susceptibility index methods, verified by comparing the distribution of some pollutants (Daouad, 2013) in the groundwater and the different vulnerability classes, shows a high contamination that affect the water quality in study areas.

  10. Developing a national food defense guideline based on a vulnerability assessment of intentional food contamination in Japanese food factories using the CARVER+Shock vulnerability assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanagawa, Yoshiyuki; Akahane, Manabu; Hasegawa, Atsushi; Yamaguchi, Kentaro; Onitake, Kazuo; Takaya, Satoshi; Yamamoto, Shigeki; Imamura, Tomoaki

    2014-12-01

    The awareness of food terrorism has increased following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in New York City, United States, and many measures and policies dealing with this issue have been established worldwide. Suspected deliberate food-poisoning crimes have occurred in Japan, although they are not regarded as acts of food terrorism. One area of concern is that the small- to medium-sized companies that dominate Japan's food industry are extremely vulnerable to deliberate food poisoning. We conducted a literature research on food defense measures undertaken by the World Health Organization and in the United States and Europe. Using the Carver+Shock vulnerability assessment tool, eight food factories and related facilities in Japan were evaluated and we found the level of awareness of food defense to be low and the measures inappropriate. On the basis of this evaluation, we developed a set of guidelines that Japanese food companies can use to help develop their food defense strategies and to serve as a reference in considering specific measures. PMID:25496071

  11. Integrated flood risk assessment for the Mekong Delta through the combined assessment of flood hazard change and social vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apel, Heiko; Garschagen, Matthias; Delgado, José Miguel; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Van Tuan, Vo; Thanh Binh, Nguyen; Birkmann, Joern; Merz, Bruno

    2013-04-01

    Low lying estuaries as the Mekong Delta in Vietnam are among the most vulnerable areas with respect to climate change impacts. While regular floods are not a threat but an opportunity for livelihoods and income generation, extreme flood events can pose considerable risks to the people living in Deltas. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of extreme floods globally, which in combination with sea level rise and a likely intensification of cyclone activity creates increased and/or entirely new hazard exposure in the Deltas. Yet, in line with the risk literature and especially the recent IPCC SREX report, flooding risk needs to be understood as deriving from the interaction of physical hazards and the vulnerabilities of exposed elements. Therefore, the paper aims for an integrated risk assessment through combining the most up to date estimates of flood hazard projections under climate change conditions in the Mekong Delta with the assessment of vulnerability patterns. Projections of flood hazard are estimated based the modulation of the flood frequency distribution by atmospheric circulation patterns. Future projections of these patterns are calculated from an ensemble of climate models. A quasi two-dimensional hydrodynamical model of the Delta is then applied to estimate water levels and flood extend. This model is fed with a set of hydrographs which are based on both the derived climate model uncertainty and the bivariate nature of floods in the Mekong Delta. Flood peak is coupled with flood volume in the probabilistic framework to derive synthetic extreme future floods with associated probabilities of occurrence. This flood hazard analysis is combined with static sea level rise scenarios, which alter the lower boundary of the hydrodynamic model and give estimates of the impact on sea level rise on inundation extend and depths. The vulnerability assessment is based on a three step approach. Firstly, vulnerability profiles are developed for different

  12. Assessment on vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea level rise in the Yangtze Estuary, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, L.; Ge, Z.; Zhang, L.

    2013-12-01

    The Yangtze Delta in China is vital economic hubs in terms of settlement, industry, agriculture, trade and tourism as well as of great environmental significance. In recent decades, the prospect of climate change, in particular sea level rise and its effects on low lying coastal areas have generated worldwide attention to coastal ecosystems. Coastal wetlands, as important parts of coastal ecosystem, are particularly sensitive to sea level rise. To study the responses of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisites for securing the coastal zone ecosystems. In this study, taking the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary as a case study, the potential impacts of sea-level rise to coastal wetlands habitat were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model. The key indicators, such as the sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, elevation, daily inundation duration of habitat and sedimentation rate, were selected to build a vulnerability assessment system according to the IPCC definition of vulnerability, i.e. the aspects of exposure, sensitivity and adaptation. A quantitatively spatial assessment method on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability. The vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the sea level rise rate of the present trend and IPCC A1F1 scenario were performed for three sets of projections of short-term (2030s), mid-term (2050s) and long-term (2100s). The results showed that at the present trend of sea level rise rate of 0.26 cm/a, 92.3 % of the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary was in the EVI score of 0 in 2030s, i.e. the impact of sea level rise on habitats/species of coastal wetlands was negligible. While 7.4 % and 0.3 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of

  13. A Bayesian Network Methodology for Infrastructure Seismic Risk Assessment and Decision Support

    OpenAIRE

    Bensi, Michelle Terese

    2010-01-01

    A Bayesian network methodology is developed for performing infrastructure seismic risk assessment and providing decision support with an emphasis on immediate post-earthquake applications. The methodology consists of four major components: (1) a seismic demand model of ground motion intensity as a spatially distributed Gaussian random field accounting for multiple seismic sources with uncertain characteristics and including finite fault rupture and directivity effects; (2) a model of the perf...

  14. Community Needs Assessment and Portal Prototype Development for an Arctic Spatial Data Infrastructure (ASDI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiggins, H. V.; Warnick, W. K.; Hempel, L. C.; Henk, J.; Sorensen, M.; Tweedie, C. E.; Gaylord, A. G.

    2007-12-01

    As the creation and use of geospatial data in research, management, logistics, and education applications has proliferated, there is now a tremendous potential for advancing science through a variety of cyber-infrastructure applications, including Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) and related technologies. SDIs provide a necessary and common framework of standards, securities, policies, procedures, and technology to support the effective acquisition, coordination, dissemination and use of geospatial data by multiple and distributed stakeholder and user groups. Despite the numerous research activities in the Arctic, there is no established SDI and, because of this lack of a coordinated infrastructure, there is inefficiency, duplication of effort, and reduced data quality and search ability of arctic geospatial data. The urgency for establishing this framework is significant considering the myriad of data that is being collected in celebration of the International Polar Year (IPY) in 2007-2008 and the current international momentum for an improved and integrated circum-arctic terrestrial-marine-atmospheric environmental observatories network. The key objective of this project is to lay the foundation for full implementation of an Arctic Spatial Data Infrastructure (ASDI) through an assessment of community needs, readiness, and resources and through the development of a prototype web-mapping portal.

  15. Digital Cartographic Models as Analysis Support in Multicriterial Assessment of Vulnerable Flood Risk Elements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichersu, Iulian; Mierla, Marian; Trifanov, Cristian; Nichersu, Iuliana; Marin, Eugenia; Sela, Florentina

    2014-05-01

    In the last 20 years there has been an increase of frequency in extreme weather and hydrological events. This frequency increase arise the need to research the risk to the events that are extreme and has big impact to the environment. This paper presents a method to analysis the vulnerable elements to the risk at extreme hydrological event, to be more precisely to flood. The method is using also the LiDAR point cloud. The risk concept has two main components: the first one hazard (represented by frequency of the occurrence and intensity of the flood) and the second one vulnerability (represented by the vulnerable elements to the flood). The studied area in the present paper is situated in the South-East of Europe (Romania, Danube Delta). The Digital Cartographic Models were accomplished by using the LiDAR data obtained within the CARTODD project. The digital cartographic models, with high resolution, consist of 3 components: digital terrain model (DTM), digital elevation model (DEM) and elevation classes (EC). Completing the information of the three models there were used also the orthophotos in visible (VIS) and infrared (IR) spectrum slices. Digital Terrain Model gives information on the altitude of the terrain and indirect of the flood hazard, taking into account the high resolution that the final product has. Digital Elevation Model supplies information related to the surfaces of the terrain plus the altitude of each object on the surface. This model helps to reach to the third model the Elevation Classes Model. We present here three categories of applications of clouds points analyses in floodrisk assessment: buildings assessment, endangered species mentioned in Annex 1 of the European Habitats Directive and morphologic/habitats damages. Pilot case studies of these applications are: Sulina town; endangering species like Osmoderma eremita, Vipera ursini and Spermophilus citellus; Sireasa Polder. For Sulina town was assessed the manmade vulnerable elements to

  16. Vulnerability assessment and protective effects of coastal vegetation during the 2004 Tsunami in Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, M.; Renaud, F. G.; Lüchters, G.

    2009-08-01

    The tsunami of December 2004 caused extensive human and economic losses along many parts of the Sri Lankan coastline. Thanks to extensive national and international solidarity and support in the aftermath of the event, most people managed to restore their livelihoods completely but some households did not manage to recover completely from the impacts of the event. The differential in recovery highlighted the various vulnerabilities and coping capacities of communities exposed to the tsunami. Understanding the elements causing different vulnerabilities is crucial to reducing the impact of future events, yet capturing them comprehensively at the local level is a complex task. This research was conducted in a tsunami-affected area in southwestern Sri Lanka to evaluate firstly the role of coastal vegetation in buffering communities against the tsunami and secondly to capture the elements of vulnerability of affected communities. The area was chosen because of its complex landscape, including the presence of an inlet connecting the Maduganga estuary with the sea, and because of the presence of remaining patches of coastal vegetation. The vulnerability assessment was based on a comprehensive vulnerability framework and on the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework in order to detect inherent vulnerabilities of different livelihood groups. Our study resulted in the identification of fishery and labour-led households as the most vulnerable groups. Unsurprisingly, analyses showed that damages to houses and assets decreased quickly with increasing distance from the sea. It could also be shown that the Maduganga inlet channelled the energy of the waves, so that severe damages were observed at relatively large distances from the sea. Some reports after the tsunami stated that mangroves and other coastal vegetation protected the people living behind them. Detailed mapping of the coastal vegetation in the study area and subsequent linear regression revealed significant differences

  17. Transactional approach in assessment of operational performance of companies in transport infrastructure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valery Dubrovsky

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Offer an alternative method to assess operational performance of companies in transport infrastructure of a region by making a comparison between transaction costs. The method is supposed to be a cross-functional and possibly applied to an analysis of economic entities of a different order (country, region, sector, companies while evaluating “viscosity” / complexity of the outside and the inside. Design/methodology/approach: The paper includes an analysis of various methodological approaches to assess a development level of the transport infrastructure in a region. Within the author's approach and for purposed of the research, an index of transaction capacity or the transactionalness index is proposed, which determines a level of transaction costs calculated against the cost of production and revenue. The approach is piloted using the region-wise consolidated financial data of companies involved in the Russian transport infrastructure for 2005/2013. Findings: The proposed alternative way to measure corporate operating efficiency has proved its academic consistency. A specific comparison between the transaction costs using the transactionalness index allows first to identify companies or regions/sectors, where there is excess complexity of economical communication in bargaining. Secondly, the index does not only point out indirectly to a degree of development in the institutional environment, but also the infrastructure (the transport one in the example given. Third, the transactionalness level may say of uncertainty and risks. As an addition to theoretical and methodological aspects of transaction costs, the authors justify an approach to their size estimation, as well as their differentiation dividing them into two groups: those of a natural type and a background type. In a course of their discussion, the authors have concluded that there are such transaction costs in place, which are standard in a manner of speaking. Originality

  18. Parametric Assessment of Water Use Vulnerability Variations Using SWAT and Fuzzy TOPSIS Coupled with Entropy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwangjai Won

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This study assessed the water use vulnerability to include the uncertainty of the weighting values of evaluation criteria and the annual variations of performance values using fuzzy TOPSIS coupled with the Shannon entropy method. This procedure was applied to 12 major basins covering about 88% territory of South Korea. Hydrological components were simulated using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT of which parameters were optimally calibrated using SWAT-CUP model. The 15 indicators including hydrological and anthropogenic factors were selected, based on three aspects of climate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Their weighting values were objectively quantified using the Entropy method. All performance values of 12 basins obtained from statistic Korea and SWAT simulation were normalized with the consideration of the annual variations from 1991 to 2014 using triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs. Then, Fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS technique was used to quantify the water use vulnerability and rank 12 basins as follows: A12 (Hyeongsan River > A6 (Seomjin River > A5 (Youngsan River > A8 (Mangyung River > A2 (Ansung River > A9 (Dongjin River > A10 (Nakdong River > A3 (Geum River > A4 (Sapgyo River > A11 (Taehwa River > A7 (Tamjin River > A1 (Han River. This framework can be used to determine the spatial priority for sustainable water resources plan and applied to derive the climate change vulnerability on sustainable water resources.

  19. Department of Energy HEU ES and H vulnerability assessment, Savannah River Site, Site Assessment Team report. Revision 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report fulfills the directive issued by the Secretary of Energy on February 22, 1996 to complete a comprehensive assessment of potential vulnerabilities associated with the management of highly enriched uranium (HEU) throughout the DOE complex. In a subsequent letter instruction, the DOE-SR Field Office formally directed WSRC to conduct an assessment of the HEU materials at SRS. The term ''ES and H vulnerabilities'' is defined for the purpose of this assessment to mean conditions or weaknesses that could lead to unnecessary or increased exposure of workers or the public to radiation or to HEU-associated chemical hazards, or to the release of radioactive materials to the environment. The assessment will identify and prioritize ES and H vulnerabilities, and will serve as an information base for identifying corrective actions for the safe management of HEU. Primary facilities that hold HEU at SRS are H-Canyon, K-Reactor assembly area, K, L, and P-Reactor disassembly basins, and the Receiving Basin for Offsite Fuels (RBOF)

  20. Physically-Based Assessment of Intrinsic Groundwater Resource Vulnerability in AN Urban Catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graf, T.; Therrien, R.; Lemieux, J.; Molson, J. W.

    2013-12-01

    Several methods exist to assess intrinsic groundwater (re)source vulnerability for the purpose of sustainable groundwater management and protection. However, several methods are empirical and limited in their application to specific types of hydrogeological systems. Recent studies suggest that a physically-based approach could be better suited to provide a general, conceptual and operational basis for groundwater vulnerability assessment. A novel method for physically-based assessment of intrinsic aquifer vulnerability is currently under development and tested to explore the potential of an integrated modelling approach, combining groundwater travel time probability and future scenario modelling in conjunction with the fully integrated HydroGeoSphere model. To determine the intrinsic groundwater resource vulnerability, a fully coupled 2D surface water and 3D variably-saturated groundwater flow model in conjunction with a 3D geological model (GoCAD) has been developed for a case study of the Rivière Saint-Charles (Québec/Canada) regional scale, urban watershed. The model has been calibrated under transient flow conditions for the hydrogeological, variably-saturated subsurface system, coupled with the overland flow zone by taking into account monthly recharge variation and evapotranspiration. To better determine the intrinsic groundwater vulnerability, two independent approaches are considered and subsequently combined in a simple, holistic multi-criteria-decision analyse. Most data for the model comes from an extensive hydrogeological database for the watershed, whereas data gaps have been complemented via field tests and literature review. The subsurface is composed of nine hydrofacies, ranging from unconsolidated fluvioglacial sediments to low permeability bedrock. The overland flow zone is divided into five major zones (Urban, Rural, Forest, River and Lake) to simulate the differences in landuse, whereas the unsaturated zone is represented via the model

  1. Assessing the dynamic material criticality of infrastructure transitions: A case of low carbon electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • We present a method to analyse material criticality of infrastructure transitions. • Criticality is defined as the potential for, and exposure to, supply disruption. • Our method is dynamic reducing the probability of lock-in to at-risk technologies. • We show that supply disruption potential is reducing but exposure is increasing. - Abstract: Decarbonisation of existing infrastructure systems requires a dynamic roll-out of technology at an unprecedented scale. The potential disruption in supply of critical materials could endanger such a transition to low-carbon infrastructure and, by extension, compromise energy security more broadly because low carbon technologies are reliant on these materials in a way that fossil-fuelled energy infrastructure is not. Criticality is currently defined as the combination of the potential for supply disruption and the exposure of a system of interest to that disruption. We build on this definition and develop a dynamic approach to quantifying criticality, which monitors the change in criticality during the transition towards a low-carbon infrastructure goal. This allows us to assess the relative risk of different technology pathways to reach a particular goal and reduce the probability of being ‘locked in’ to currently attractive but potentially future-critical technologies. To demonstrate, we apply our method to criticality of the proposed UK electricity system transition, with a focus on neodymium. We anticipate that the supply disruption potential of neodymium will decrease by almost 30% by 2050; however, our results show the criticality of low carbon electricity production increases ninefold over this period, as a result of increasing exposure to neodymium-reliant technologies

  2. Road Network Vulnerability Analysis Based on Improved Ant Colony Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunpeng Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We present an improved ant colony algorithm-based approach to assess the vulnerability of a road network and identify the critical infrastructures. This approach improves computational efficiency and allows for its applications in large-scale road networks. This research involves defining the vulnerability conception, modeling the traffic utility index and the vulnerability of the road network, and identifying the critical infrastructures of the road network. We apply the approach to a simple test road network and a real road network to verify the methodology. The results show that vulnerability is directly related to traffic demand and increases significantly when the demand approaches capacity. The proposed approach reduces the computational burden and may be applied in large-scale road network analysis. It can be used as a decision-supporting tool for identifying critical infrastructures in transportation planning and management.

  3. The Combined Use of Airborne Remote Sensing Techniques within a GIS Environment for the Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Urban Areas: An Operational Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Costanzo

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The knowledge of the topographic features, the building properties, and the road infrastructure settings are relevant operational tasks for managing post-crisis events, restoration activities, and for supporting search and rescue operations. Within such a framework, airborne remote sensing tools have demonstrated to be powerful instruments, whose joint use can provide meaningful analyses to support the risk assessment of urban environments. Based on this rationale, in this study, the operational benefits obtained by combining airborne LiDAR and hyperspectral measurements are shown. Terrain and surface digital models are gathered by using LiDAR data. Information about roads and roof materials are provided through the supervised classification of hyperspectral images. The objective is to combine such products within a geographic information system (GIS providing value-added maps to be used for the seismic vulnerability assessment of urban environments. Experimental results are gathered for the city of Cosenza, Italy.

  4. Feasibility Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Projects: The CBA-DK Decision Support Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Banister, David

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents the final version of the CBA-DK decision support model for assessment of transport projects. The model makes use of conventional cost-benefit analysis resulting in aggregated single point estimates and quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation resulting in interval...... results. Two special concerns in this paper is firstly the treatment of feasibility risk assessment adopted for evaluation of transport infrastructure projects, and secondly whether this can provide a more robust decision support model. This means moving away from a single point estimate to an interval...

  5. Vulnerability assessment and strategies for the Sheldon National Wildlife Refuge and Hart Mountain National Antelope Refuge Complex : Final report

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This report provides the results of the Refuge Vulnerability Assessment RVA for the Sheldon National Wildlife Refuge and Hart Mountain National Antelope Refuge...

  6. Assessing urban strategies for reducing the impacts of extreme weather on infrastructure networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pregnolato, Maria; Ford, Alistair; Robson, Craig; Glenis, Vassilis; Barr, Stuart; Dawson, Richard

    2016-05-01

    Critical infrastructure networks, including transport, are crucial to the social and economic function of urban areas but are at increasing risk from natural hazards. Minimizing disruption to these networks should form part of a strategy to increase urban resilience. A framework for assessing the disruption from flood events to transport systems is presented that couples a high-resolution urban flood model with transport modelling and network analytics to assess the impacts of extreme rainfall events, and to quantify the resilience value of different adaptation options. A case study in Newcastle upon Tyne in the UK shows that both green roof infrastructure and traditional engineering interventions such as culverts or flood walls can reduce transport disruption from flooding. The magnitude of these benefits depends on the flood event and adaptation strategy, but for the scenarios considered here 3-22% improvements in city-wide travel times are achieved. The network metric of betweenness centrality, weighted by travel time, is shown to provide a rapid approach to identify and prioritize the most critical locations for flood risk management intervention. Protecting just the top ranked critical location from flooding provides an 11% reduction in person delays. A city-wide deployment of green roofs achieves a 26% reduction, and although key routes still flood, the benefits of this strategy are more evenly distributed across the transport network as flood depths are reduced across the model domain. Both options should form part of an urban flood risk management strategy, but this method can be used to optimize investment and target limited resources at critical locations, enabling green infrastructure strategies to be gradually implemented over the longer term to provide city-wide benefits. This framework provides a means of prioritizing limited financial resources to improve resilience. This is particularly important as flood management investments must typically exceed

  7. Coastal Hazard Vulnerability Assessment: A Case Study of Erosion and Flooding on Herschel Island, Yukon Territory, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radosavljevic, B.; Lantuit, H.; Overduin, P. P.; Fritz, M.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal infrastructure, cultural, and archeological sites are increasingly vulnerable to erosion and flooding along permafrost coasts. Amplified warming of the Arctic, sea level rise, lengthening of the open water period, and a predicted increase in frequency of major storms compound these threats. Mitigation necessitates decision-making tools at an appropriate scale. We present a study of coastal erosion combining it with a flooding risk assessment for the culturally important historic settlement on Herschel Island, a UNESCO World Heritage candidate site. The resulting map may help local stakeholders devise management strategies to cope with rapidly changing environmental conditions. We analyzed shoreline movement using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) after digitizing shorelines from 1952, 1970, and 2011. Using these data, forecasts of shoreline positions were made for 20 and 50 years into the future. Flooding risk was assessed using a cost-distance map based on a high-resolution Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) dataset and current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level estimates. Widespread erosion characterizes the study area. The rate of shoreline movement for different periods of the study ranges from -5.5 to 2.7 m·a-1 (mean -0.6 m·a-1). Mean coastal retreat decreased from -0.6 m·a-1 to -0.5 m·a-1, for 1952-1970 and 1970-2000, respectively, and increased to -1.3 m·a-1 in the period 2000-2011. Ice-rich coastal sections, and coastal sections most exposed to wave attack exhibited the highest rates of coastal retreat. The geohazard map resulting from shoreline projections and flood risk analysis indicates that most of the area occupied by the historic settlement is at extreme or very high risk of flooding, and some buildings are vulnerable to coastal erosion. The results of this study indicate a greater threat by coastal flooding than erosion. Our assessment may be applied in other locations where limited data are available.

  8. Crossing physical simulations of snow conditions and a geographic model of ski area to assess ski resorts vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    François, Hugues; Spandre, Pierre; Morin, Samuel; George-Marcelpoil, Emmanuelle; Lafaysse, Matthieu; Lejeune, Yves

    2016-04-01

    In order to face climate change, meteorological variability and the recurrent lack of natural snow on the ground, ski resorts adaptation often rely on technical responses. Indeed, since the occurrence of episodes with insufficient snowfalls in the early 1990's, snowmaking has become an ordinary practice of snow management, comparable to grooming, and contributes to optimise the operation of ski resorts. It also participates to the growth of investments and is associated with significant operating costs, and thus represents a new source of vulnerability. The assessment of the actual effects of snowmaking and of snow management practices in general is a real concern for the future of the ski industry. The principal model use to simulate snow conditions in resorts, Ski Sim, has also been moving this way. Its developers introduced an artificial input of snow on ski area to complete natural snowfalls and considered different organisations of ski lifts (lower and upper zones). However the use of a degree-day model prevents them to consider the specific properties of artificial snow and the impact of grooming on the snowpack. A first proof of concept in the French Alps has shown the feasibility and the interest to cross the geographic model of ski areas and the output of the physically-based reanalysis of snow conditions SAFRAN - Crocus (François et al., CRST 2014). Since these initial developments, several ways have been explored to refine our model. A new model of ski areas has been developed. Our representation is now based on gravity derived from a DEM and ski lift localisation. A survey about snow management practices also allowed us to define criteria in order to model snowmaking areas given ski areas properties and tourism infrastructures localisation. We also suggest to revisit the assessment of ski resort viability based on the "one hundred days rule" based on natural snow depth only. Indeed, the impact of snow management must be considered so as to propose

  9. Community vulnerability assessment index for flood prone savannah agro-ecological zone: A case study of Wa West District, Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Effah Kwabena Antwi

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The savannah regions of Northern Ghana are characterized by smallholder farming systems and high levels of poverty. Over the past two decades, communities in the regions have become more prone to climate and human-induced disasters in the form of annual floods and droughts. This study evaluates the degree and magnitude of vulnerability in four communities subjected to similar climate change induced flood events and propose intervention options. The study employs rural participatory research approaches in developing four vulnerability categories namely socio-economic, ecological, engineering and political; which were used to develop indicators that aided the calculation of total community vulnerability index for each community. The findings indicate that the state of a community's vulnerability to flood is a composite effect of the four vulnerability index categories which may act independently or concurrently to produce the net effect. Based on a synthesis of total vulnerability obtained in each community, Baleufili was found to be the least vulnerable to flood due to its high scores in engineering, socio-economic and political vulnerability indicators. Baleufili and Bankpama were the most ecologically vulnerable communities. The selection of vulnerability index categories and associated indicators were grounded in specific local peculiarities that evolved out of engagement with community stakeholders and expert knowledge of the socioecological landscape. Thus, the Total Community Vulnerability Assessment Framework (TCVAF provides an effective decision support for identifying communities’ vulnerability status and help to design both short and long term interventions options that are community specific as a way of enhancing their coping and adaptive capacity to disasters.

  10. A Contamination Vulnerability Assessment for the Santa Clara and San Mateo County Groundwater Basins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In response to concerns expressed by the California Legislature and the citizenry of the State of California, the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB), implemented a program to assess groundwater quality, and provide a predictive capability for identifying areas that are vulnerable to contamination. The program was initiated in response to concern over public supply well closures due to contamination by chemicals such as MtBE from gasoline, and solvents from industrial operations. As a result of this increased awareness regarding groundwater quality, the Supplemental Report of the 1999 Budget Act mandated the SWRCB to develop a comprehensive ambient groundwater-monitoring plan, and led to the initiation of the Ambient Groundwater Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The primary objective of the GAMA Program is to assess the water quality and to predict the relative susceptibility to contamination of groundwater resources throughout the state of California. Under the GAMA program, scientists from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) collaborate with the SWRCB, the U.S. Geological Survey, the California Department of Health Services (DHS), and the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to implement this groundwater assessment program. In 2001 and 2002, LLNL carried out this vulnerability study in the groundwater basins of Santa Clara County and San Mateo County, located to the south of the city of San Francisco. The goal of the study is to provide a probabilistic assessment of the relative vulnerability of groundwater used for the public water supply to contamination from surface sources. This assessment of relative contamination vulnerability is made based on the results of two types of analyses that are not routinely carried out at public water supply wells: ultra low-level measurement of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and groundwater age dating (using the tritium-helium-3 method). In addition, stable oxygen isotope measurements

  11. A model for assessing the systemic vulnerability in landslide prone areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Pascale

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of spatial planning should include the definition and assessment of possible mitigation strategies regarding the effects of natural hazards on the surrounding territory. Unfortunately, however, there is often a lack of adequate tools to provide necessary support to the local bodies responsible for land management. This paper deals with the conception, the development and the validation of an integrated numerical model for assessing systemic vulnerability in complex and urbanized landslide-prone areas. The proposed model considers this vulnerability not as a characteristic of a particular element at risk, but as a peculiarity of a complex territorial system, in which the elements are reciprocally linked in a functional way. It is an index of the tendency of a given territorial element to suffer damage (usually of a functional kind due to its interconnections with other elements of the same territorial system. The innovative nature of this work also lies in the formalization of a procedure based on a network of influences for an adequate assessment of such "systemic" vulnerability.

    This approach can be used to obtain information which is useful, in any given situation of a territory hit by a landslide event, for the identification of the element which has suffered the most functional damage, ie the most "critical" element and the element which has the greatest repercussions on other elements of the system and thus a "decisive" role in the management of the emergency.

    This model was developed within a GIS system through the following phases:

    1. the topological characterization of the territorial system studied and the assessment of the scenarios in terms of spatial landslide hazard. A statistical method, based on neural networks was proposed for the assessment of landslide hazard;

    2. the analysis of the direct consequences of a scenario event on the system;

    3. the definition of the

  12. A Contamination Vulnerability Assessment for the Santa Clara and San Mateo County Groundwater Basins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moran, J E; Hudson, G B; Eaton, G F; Leif, R

    2004-01-06

    In response to concerns expressed by the California Legislature and the citizenry of the State of California, the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB), implemented a program to assess groundwater quality, and provide a predictive capability for identifying areas that are vulnerable to contamination. The program was initiated in response to concern over public supply well closures due to contamination by chemicals such as MtBE from gasoline, and solvents from industrial operations. As a result of this increased awareness regarding groundwater quality, the Supplemental Report of the 1999 Budget Act mandated the SWRCB to develop a comprehensive ambient groundwater-monitoring plan, and led to the initiation of the Ambient Groundwater Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The primary objective of the GAMA Program is to assess the water quality and to predict the relative susceptibility to contamination of groundwater resources throughout the state of California. Under the GAMA program, scientists from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) collaborate with the SWRCB, the U.S. Geological Survey, the California Department of Health Services (DHS), and the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to implement this groundwater assessment program. In 2001 and 2002, LLNL carried out this vulnerability study in the groundwater basins of Santa Clara County and San Mateo County, located to the south of the city of San Francisco. The goal of the study is to provide a probabilistic assessment of the relative vulnerability of groundwater used for the public water supply to contamination from surface sources. This assessment of relative contamination vulnerability is made based on the results of two types of analyses that are not routinely carried out at public water supply wells: ultra low-level measurement of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and groundwater age dating (using the tritium-helium-3 method). In addition, stable oxygen isotope measurements

  13. California GAMA Program: A Contamination Vulnerability Assessment for the Bakersfield Area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moran, J E; Hudson, G B; Eaton, G F; Leif, R

    2004-11-01

    In response to concerns expressed by the California Legislature and the citizenry of the State of California, the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB), implemented a program to assess groundwater quality, and provide a predictive capability for identifying areas that are vulnerable to contamination. The program was initiated in response to concern over public supply well closures due to contamination by chemicals such as MTBE from gasoline, and solvents from industrial operations. As a result of this increased awareness regarding groundwater quality, the Supplemental Report of the 1999 Budget Act mandated the SWRCB to develop a comprehensive ambient groundwater-monitoring plan, and led to the initiation of the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The primary objective of the GAMA Program is to assess the water quality and to predict the relative susceptibility to contamination of groundwater resources throughout the state of California. Under the GAMA program, scientists from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) collaborate with the SWRCB, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Department of Health Services (DHS), and the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to implement this groundwater assessment program. In 2003, LLNL carried out this vulnerability study in the groundwater basin that underlies Bakersfield, in the southern San Joaquin Valley. The goal of the study is to provide a probabilistic assessment of the relative vulnerability of groundwater used for the public water supply to contamination from surface sources. This assessment of relative contamination vulnerability is made based on the results of two types of analyses that are not routinely carried out at public water supply wells: ultra low-level measurement of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and groundwater age dating (using the tritium-helium-3 method). In addition, stable oxygen isotope measurements help determine the recharge water

  14. California GAMA Program: A Contamination Vulnerability Assessment for the Bakersfield Area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In response to concerns expressed by the California Legislature and the citizenry of the State of California, the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB), implemented a program to assess groundwater quality, and provide a predictive capability for identifying areas that are vulnerable to contamination. The program was initiated in response to concern over public supply well closures due to contamination by chemicals such as MTBE from gasoline, and solvents from industrial operations. As a result of this increased awareness regarding groundwater quality, the Supplemental Report of the 1999 Budget Act mandated the SWRCB to develop a comprehensive ambient groundwater-monitoring plan, and led to the initiation of the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The primary objective of the GAMA Program is to assess the water quality and to predict the relative susceptibility to contamination of groundwater resources throughout the state of California. Under the GAMA program, scientists from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) collaborate with the SWRCB, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Department of Health Services (DHS), and the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to implement this groundwater assessment program. In 2003, LLNL carried out this vulnerability study in the groundwater basin that underlies Bakersfield, in the southern San Joaquin Valley. The goal of the study is to provide a probabilistic assessment of the relative vulnerability of groundwater used for the public water supply to contamination from surface sources. This assessment of relative contamination vulnerability is made based on the results of two types of analyses that are not routinely carried out at public water supply wells: ultra low-level measurement of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and groundwater age dating (using the tritium-helium-3 method). In addition, stable oxygen isotope measurements help determine the recharge water

  15. Tsunami vulnerability assessment mapping for the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia using a geographical information system (GIS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The catastrophic Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004 raised a number of questions for scientist and politicians on how to deal with the tsunami risk and assessment in coastal regions. This paper discusses the challenges in tsunami vulnerability assessment and presents the result of tsunami disaster mapping and vulnerability assessment study for West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The spatial analysis was carried out using Geographical Information System (GIS) technology to demarcate spatially the tsunami affected village's boundary and suitable disaster management program can be quickly and easily developed. In combination with other thematic maps such as road maps, rail maps, school maps, and topographic map sheets it was possible to plan the accessibility and shelter to the affected people. The tsunami vulnerability map was used to identify the vulnerability of villages/village population to tsunami. In the tsunami vulnerability map, the intensity of the tsunami was classified as hazard zones based on the inundation level in meter (contour). The approach produced a tsunami vulnerability assessment map consists of considering scenarios of plausible extreme, tsunami-generating events, computing the tsunami inundation levels caused by different events and scenarios and estimating the possible range of casualties for computing inundation levels. The study provides an interactive means to identify the tsunami affected areas after the disaster and mapping the tsunami vulnerable village before for planning purpose were the essential exercises for managing future disasters

  16. A watershed-based method for environmental vulnerability assessment with a case study of the Mid-Atlantic region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper presents a method for environmental vulnerability assessment with a case study of the Mid-Atlantic region. The method is based on the concept of “self-/peer-appraisal” of a watershed in term of vulnerability. The self-/peer-appraisal process is facilitated by two separate linear optimization programs. The analysis provided insights on the environmental conditions, in general, and the relative vulnerability pattern, in particular, of the Mid-Atlantic region. The suggested method offers a simple but effective and objective way to perform a regional environmental vulnerability assessment. Consequently the method can be used in various steps in environmental assessment and planning. - Highlights: ► We present a method for regional environmental vulnerability assessment. ► It is based on the self-/peer-appraisal concept in term of vulnerability. ► The analysis is facilitated by two separate linear optimization programs. ► The method provides insights on the regional relative vulnerability pattern.

  17. Assessment of socio-economic potential of regions for placement of the logistic infrastructure objects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandr Nelevich Rakhmangulov

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Currently, at the regional markets, there is a disproportion between the growing demand for transportation and logistics services and the availability of facilities needed for their implementation, which is because the high logistics costs and does not meet the strategic objectives of the country to create a common economic space. The article describes the system of market factors that have the most significant influence on the distribution of logistics facilities. Study and evaluation of potential changes in the region of logistics facility disposition are proposed to perform using simulation techniques and statistical data analysis. The article presents the engineered multivariate statistical models that control the kind and effect of correlation between socio-economic development factors of regions, as well as a simulation model, which allows to assess the dynamics of these factors and predict demand for logistics infrastructure facilities. The choice of region (subject dislocation of the logistics center is proposed to realize by the developed technique based on the calculation of the integrated index that takes into account differences in the level of socio-economic and infrastructural development of the regions. This technique in conjunction with a simulation model is applicable to a variety of administrative and territorial levels (region, city and allows to take into account both the current demand in the logistics infrastructure and demand dynamics. The technique given in the article can be used to assess the level of attractiveness of the Russian Federation in the development of public and private investment projects for the development of logistics infrastructure

  18. Assessing vulnerability in Istanbul: An example to support disaster management with remote sensing at ZKI-DLR

    OpenAIRE

    Taubenböck, Hannes; Kemper, Thomas; Roth, Achim; Voigt, Stefan

    2006-01-01

    This paper demonstrates the potential of remote sensing for support of disaster management in the disaster preparedness as well as in the disaster response with a focus on vulnerability assessment in Istanbul. With the focus on the megacity Istanbul the capabilities of remote sensing to assess vulnerability are presented. Explosive population growth, uncontrolled urban sprawl, housing at hazardous areas or bad building materials in combination with a significant risk of a major earthquake pre...

  19. Assessment of Intrinsic Vulnerability to Contamination for the Alluvial Aquifer in El-Fayoum Depression Using the Drastic Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Intrinsic vulnerability assessment to delineate areas that are more susceptible to contamination from anthropogenic sources has become an important element for sensible resource management and land use planning. The vulnerability for the alluvial aquifer in El-Fayoum depression was assessed by applying the Drastic model as well as utilizing sensitivity analyses to evaluate the reliability of this model. This method uses seven parameters including climatic, geological, and hydrogeological conditions controlling the seepage of pollutant substances to groundwater. Vulnerability maps were produced by applying the Generic and Agricultural models according to the Drastic charter. The resulting agricultural Drastic vulnerability map indicates that 23.3%, 22.7% and 12.4% of El-Fayoum depression is under low, low-moderate and moderately high vulnerability of groundwater contamination, respectively, while 41.6% of the area of study can be designated as an area of moderate vulnerability of groundwater contamination. Resulting maps revealed that the potential for polluting groundwater with agricultural chemicals is greater than with Generic Drastic index pollutants. Depth to water table parameter inflicted the largest impact on the intrinsic vulnerability of the alluvial aquifer in El-Fayoum depression. Both the map removal and single-parameter sensitivity analyses indicated that the vulnerability index is the least sensitive to the removal of the recharge and hydraulic conductivity parameters but is highly sensitive to the removal of depth to water parameter.

  20. Energy infrastructure in India: Profile and risks under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    India has committed large investments to energy infrastructure assets-power plants, refineries, energy ports, pipelines, roads, railways, etc. The coastal infrastructure being developed to meet the rising energy imports is vulnerable to climate extremes. This paper provides an overview of climate risks to energy infrastructures in India and details two case studies – a crude oil importing port and a western coast railway transporting coal. The climate vulnerability of the port has been mapped using an index while that of the railway has been done through a damage function for RCP 4.5.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Our analysis shows that risk management through adaptation is likely to be very expensive. The system risks can be even greater and might adversely affect energy security and access objectives. Aligning sustainable development and climate adaptation measures can deliver substantial co-benefits. The key policy recommendations include: i) mandatory vulnerability assessment to future climate risks for energy infrastructures; ii) project and systemic risks in the vulnerability index; iii) adaptation funds for unmitigated climate risks; iv) continuous monitoring of climatic parameters and implementation of adaptation measures, and iv) sustainability actions along energy infrastructures that enhance climate resilience and simultaneously deliver co-benefits to local agents. -- Highlights: •Climate risks to energy infrastructures adversely impact energy security. •Case studies of a port and a railway show their future climate change vulnerability. •Managing climate-induced risks through preventive adaptation policies

  1. Tsunami vulnerability and damage assessment in the coastal area of Rabat and Salé, Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Atillah

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This study, a companion paper to Renou et al. (2011, focuses on the application of a GIS-based method to assess building vulnerability and damage in the event of a tsunami affecting the coastal area of Rabat and Salé, Morocco. This approach, designed within the framework of the European SCHEMA project (www.schemaproject.org is based on the combination of hazard results from numerical modelling of the worst case tsunami scenario (inundation depth based on the historical Lisbon earthquake of 1755 and the Portugal earthquake of 1969, together with vulnerability building types derived from Earth Observation data, field surveys and GIS data. The risk is then evaluated for this highly concentrated population area characterized by the implementation of a vast project of residential and touristic buildings within the flat area of the Bouregreg Valley separating the cities of Rabat and Salé. A GIS tool is used to derive building damage maps by crossing layers of inundation levels and building vulnerability. The inferred damage maps serve as a base for elaborating evacuation plans with appropriate rescue and relief processes and to prepare and consider appropriate measures to prevent the induced tsunami risk.

  2. Assessment of groundwater vulnerability and sensitivity to pollution in Berrechid plain, using drastic model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Aboulouafa*1

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The Groundwater protection and management is vital for human evolution, socio-economic development and ecological diversity, because it is one of the most valuable natural resources. Agricultural and industrial activities, more and more intensive and significant population growth, have contributed to the degradation of Berrechid Groundwater quality. The present study aimed to assess the vulnerability of Berrechid aquifer using the DRASTIC models. The application of the methodology developed has needed the establishment of a Geographical Information System synthesizing a considerable mass of data (geological, hydrogeological, geophysical, etc., constitutes a real tool to aid in the decision for the managers of water resources in the region of Chaouia. The results show that three classes of vulnerability are observed in the study area: the higher drastic indices appear at the areas with low groundwater table depth and the areas which are not protected by the clays, and the areas less vulnerable are located in areas where the water is deeper and the clays recovery is important.

  3. Assessment of atherosclerotic plaque vulnerability of coronary arteries in cases of sudden cardiac death

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    To study the plaque vulnerability in coronary arteries taken from autopsy specimens, of individuals dying of ischemic heart disease in our setup and to compare it with atheroma of those who died of non-cardiac causes. Sixty coronary arteries having atherosclerosis, from autopsies of patients who died of sudden cardiac death were divided into case and control groups. Case group included thirty coronary arteries having atherosclerosis from autopsies of patients of whose death was attributable to Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD). Control group included thirty coronary arteries where atherosclerotic changes were found by chance (death not attributable to ischemic heart disease). Plaques were assessed for fibrous cap thickness, foam cells; mean percentage of inflammatory cells on Haemotoxylin and Eosin (H and E) stained slides whereas immunohistochemical (IHC) markers for T-Cells were done by IHC stain method. In present study, foam cells are significantly more in study group than in control group (P=0.007). Fibrous cap thickness fulfilling the criteria of vulnerable plaque was more in study group as compared to control group (P<0.001). The present study demonstrated that there was insignificant difference (P=0.152), in the mean percentage of inflammatory cells in case group and control group. An overall significant association was found between vulnerable plaque and death due to ischemic heart disease (P<0.001). Conclusion: Patients dying of ischemic heart disease have more vulnerable plaque in their coronary arteries as compared to those dying from non ischemic cause. Although this is an autopsy study but the significance of in this study can be very important to guide cardiologists to identify patients at high risk of acute coronary syndrome and use new diagnostic modalities like intravascular ultrasonography and therapeutic strategies like genomic and proteomic techniques. This will help the early detection and treatment of such cases and may ultimately reduce the

  4. A nationally consistent method for assessing coastal vulnerability to hurricane-induced erosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockdon, H. F.; Doran, K. J.; Sopkin, K.; Thompson, D. M.

    2012-12-01

    Sandy beaches along our nation's shores provide a natural barrier between the ocean and inland communities, ecosystems, and resources. Extreme weather events, like hurricanes, generate high waves and storm surge that act together to erode beaches and inundate low-lying lands, putting coastal and inland communities at risk. The U.S. Geological Survey has developed an approach to predict coastal change impacts during storms in order to assess the vulnerability of our nation's shorelines. In this analysis, a storm-impact scaling model combines observations of beach morphology with hydrodynamic models in order to predict the likely response of beaches along the U.S Gulf of Mexico and Southeast coasts to the direct landfall of tropical storms and hurricanes. Wave conditions likely to occur during a variety of hurricane scenarios were modeled using the maximum wind speeds for each category of storm and converted to shoreline wave runup using an empirical parameterization. Storm-induced total water levels, which include both wave runup and storm surge, were compared to beach and dune elevations to estimate the probabilities of three types of coastal impact: (1) dune erosion by waves and surge, (2) dune overwash by waves and surge, and (3) inundation of the beach and dune by storm surge. The likelihood of each impact incorporates errors associated with modeling and observation, as well as the spatial variability of each model parameters. Results indicate that beaches along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico are highly vulnerable to hurricane impacts. During landfall of even the lowest category hurricane, 99% of sandy beaches along the Gulf of Mexico coast are very likely (probability > 90%) to experience dune erosion, 71% are very likely to overwash, and 27% are very likely to inundate. In comparison, the U.S. Southeast coast has higher elevation dunes than the beaches along the Gulf, making it somewhat less vulnerable to lower category storms. However, spatial variability in beach

  5. A review on computer vision based defect detection and condition assessment of concrete and asphalt civil infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    Koch, Christian; Georgieva, Kristina; Kasireddy, Varun; Akinci, Burcu; Fieguth, Paul

    2015-01-01

    To ensure the safety and the serviceability of civil infrastructure it is essential to visually inspect and assess its physical and functional condition. This review paper presents the current state of practice of assessing the visual condition of vertical and horizontal civil infrastructure; in particular of reinforced concrete bridges, precast concrete tunnels, underground concrete pipes, and asphalt pavements. Since the rate of creation and deployment of computer vision methods for civil e...

  6. Fast Risk Assessment Software For Natural Hazard Phenomena Using Georeference Population And Infrastructure Data Bases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marrero, J. M.; Pastor Paz, J. E.; Erazo, C.; Marrero, M.; Aguilar, J.; Yepes, H. A.; Estrella, C. M.; Mothes, P. A.

    2015-12-01

    Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) requires an integrated multi-hazard assessment approach towards natural hazard mitigation. In the case of volcanic risk, long term hazard maps are generally developed on a basis of the most probable scenarios (likelihood of occurrence) or worst cases. However, in the short-term, expected scenarios may vary substantially depending on the monitoring data or new knowledge. In this context, the time required to obtain and process data is critical for optimum decision making. Availability of up-to-date volcanic scenarios is as crucial as it is to have this data accompanied by efficient estimations of their impact among populations and infrastructure. To address this impact estimation during volcanic crises, or other natural hazards, a web interface has been developed to execute an ANSI C application. This application allows one to compute - in a matter of seconds - the demographic and infrastructure impact that any natural hazard may cause employing an overlay-layer approach. The web interface is tailored to users involved in the volcanic crises management of Cotopaxi volcano (Ecuador). The population data base and the cartographic basis used are of public domain, published by the National Office of Statistics of Ecuador (INEC, by its Spanish acronym). To run the application and obtain results the user is expected to upload a raster file containing information related to the volcanic hazard or any other natural hazard, and determine categories to group population or infrastructure potentially affected. The results are displayed in a user-friendly report.

  7. A service-oriented approach to assessing the infrastructure value index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amaral, R; Alegre, H; Matos, J S

    2016-01-01

    Many national and regional administrations are currently facing challenges to ensure long-term sustainability of urban water services, as infrastructures continue to accumulate alarming levels of deferred maintenance and rehabilitation. The infrastructure value index (IVI) has proven to be an effective tool to support long-term planning, in particular by facilitating the ability to communicate and to create awareness. It is given by the ratio between current value of an infrastructure and its replacement cost. Current value is commonly estimated according to an asset-oriented approach, which is based on the concept of useful life of individual components. The standard values assumed for the useful lives can vary significantly, which leads to valuations that are just as different. Furthermore, with water companies increasingly focused on the customer, effective service-centric asset management is essential now more than ever. This paper shows results of on-going research work, which aims to explore a service-oriented approach for assessing the IVI. The paper presents the fundamentals underlying this approach, discusses and compares results obtained from both perspectives and points to challenges that still need to be addressed. PMID:27438261

  8. Development of a two-stage inspection process for the assessment of deteriorating infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inspection-based maintenance strategies can provide an efficient tool for the management of ageing infrastructure subjected to deterioration. Many of these methods rely on quantitative data from inspections, rather than qualitative and subjective data. The focus of this paper is on the development of an inspection-based decision scheme, incorporating analysis on the effect of the cost and quality of NDT tools to assess the condition of infrastructure elements/networks during their lifetime. For the first time the two aspects of an inspection are considered, i.e. detection and sizing. Since each stage of an inspection is carried out for a distinct purpose, different parameters are used to represent each procedure and both have been incorporated into a maintenance management model. The separation of these procedures allows the interaction between the two inspection techniques to be studied. The inspection for detection process acts as a screening exercise to determine which defects require further inspection for sizing. A decision tool is developed that allows the owner/manager of the infrastructural element/network to choose the most cost-efficient maintenance management plan based on his/her specific requirements.

  9. Soil Quality Assessment Is a Necessary First Step for Designing Urban Green Infrastructure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery, James A; Klimas, Christie A; Arcus, Joseph; DeKnock, Christian; Rico, Kathryn; Rodriguez, Yarency; Vollrath, Katherine; Webb, Ellen; Williams, Allison

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes the results of a preliminary project conducted by a team of DePaul University undergraduate students and staff from the Gary Comer Youth Center located on Chicago's South Side. The team assessed soil quality on 116 samples collected among four abandoned residential lots adjacent to the Comer Center. Soil quality data will be used in a follow-up study to determine the suitability of each lot for green infrastructure implementation. Green infrastructure may be a useful approach for providing ecosystem services and mitigating food deserts in inner-city communities. Soil quality on all lots was poor. All soils had pH >8.0, low biological activity, and low N mineralization potential. The soils were rich in available P and had mean total Pb concentrations above the USEPA threshold (400 mg kg) for children's playlots. Mean bioavailable Pb on the largest of the four lots was 12% of total Pb, indicating that most of the total Pb is not bioavailable. This result is encouraging because high bioavailable Pb concentrations are linked with negative health effects, particularly in children. All lots had NO-N concentrations below those considered to be appropriate for plant growth. On the other hand, no significant differences in mean concentrations of the other analytes were found. The poor soil quality in the four lots presents an opportunity to use green infrastructure to enhance ecosystem services, improve community and environmental health, and provide more equitable access to green space. PMID:26828156

  10. An indoor air quality assessment for vulnerable populations exposed to volcanic vog from Kilauea Volcano.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longo, Bernadette M; Yang, Wei; Green, Joshua B; Longo, Anthony A; Harris, Merylin; Bibilone, Renwick

    2010-01-01

    The Ka'u District of Hawaii is exposed to sulfurous air pollution called vog from the ongoing eruption of Kilauea Volcano. Increased volcanic activity in 2008 prompted an indoor air quality assessment of the district's hospital and schools. All indoor sulfur dioxide concentrations were above the World Health Organization's average 24-hour recommendation. Indoor penetration ratios were up to 94% of ambient levels and dependent upon building construction or the use of air-conditioning. Health-promotion efforts for vulnerable populations at the hospital and schools are under way to improve indoor air quality and respond to those affected by vog exposure. PMID:20010002

  11. Integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change and options for adaptation in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In recent decades it has become increasingly clear that the global climate is warming and that regional climates are changing. The changes include alterations in rainfall pattern and intensities, sea level, and the frequencies of extreme weather events. Climate changes will not just have global effects, they will also occur regionally. The consequences will be felt and dealt with in our own region. In addition to studies at the European level, a study entitled 'An integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change and adaptation options in the Netherlands' was carried out

  12. A vulnerability assessment of 300 species in Florida: threats from sea level rise, land use, and climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua Steven Reece

    Full Text Available Species face many threats, including accelerated climate change, sea level rise, and conversion and degradation of habitat from human land uses. Vulnerability assessments and prioritization protocols have been proposed to assess these threats, often in combination with information such as species rarity; ecological, evolutionary or economic value; and likelihood of success. Nevertheless, few vulnerability assessments or prioritization protocols simultaneously account for multiple threats or conservation values. We applied a novel vulnerability assessment tool, the Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value, to assess the conservation priority of 300 species of plants and animals in Florida given projections of climate change, human land-use patterns, and sea level rise by the year 2100. We account for multiple sources of uncertainty and prioritize species under five different systems of value, ranging from a primary emphasis on vulnerability to threats to an emphasis on metrics of conservation value such as phylogenetic distinctiveness. Our results reveal remarkable consistency in the prioritization of species across different conservation value systems. Species of high priority include the Miami blue butterfly (Cyclargus thomasi bethunebakeri, Key tree cactus (Pilosocereus robinii, Florida duskywing butterfly (Ephyriades brunnea floridensis, and Key deer (Odocoileus virginianus clavium. We also identify sources of uncertainty and the types of life history information consistently missing across taxonomic groups. This study characterizes the vulnerabilities to major threats of a broad swath of Florida's biodiversity and provides a system for prioritizing conservation efforts that is quantitative, flexible, and free from hidden value judgments.

  13. Use of the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index as an Assessment Tool for Reptiles and Amphibians: Lessons Learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuberville, Tracey D.; Andrews, Kimberly M.; Sperry, Jinelle H.; Grosse, Andrew M.

    2015-10-01

    Climate change threatens biodiversity globally, yet it can be challenging to predict which species may be most vulnerable. Given the scope of the problem, it is imperative to rapidly assess vulnerability and identify actions to decrease risk. Although a variety of tools have been developed to assess climate change vulnerability, few have been evaluated with regard to their suitability for certain taxonomic groups. Due to their ectothermic physiology, low vagility, and strong association with temporary wetlands, reptiles and amphibians may be particularly vulnerable relative to other groups. Here, we evaluate use of the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to assess a large suite of herpetofauna from the Sand Hills Ecoregion of the southeastern United States. Although data were frequently lacking for certain variables (e.g., phenological response to climate change, genetic variation), sufficient data were available to evaluate all 117 species. Sensitivity analyses indicated that results were highly dependent on size of assessment area and climate scenario selection. In addition, several ecological traits common in, but relatively unique to, herpetofauna are likely to contribute to their vulnerability and need special consideration during the scoring process. Despite some limitations, the NatureServe CCVI was a useful tool for screening large numbers of reptile and amphibian species. We provide general recommendations as to how the CCVI tool's application to herpetofauna can be improved through more specific guidance to the user regarding how to incorporate unique physiological and behavioral traits into scoring existing sensitivity factors and through modification to the assessment tool itself.

  14. 76 FR 20995 - Critical Infrastructure Partnership Advisory Council (CIPAC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-14

    ... infrastructure protection security measures, incident response, recovery, infrastructure resilience... sharing threat, vulnerability, risk mitigation, and infrastructure continuity information. Organizational... SECURITY Critical Infrastructure Partnership Advisory Council (CIPAC) AGENCY: National Protection...

  15. Development of methods for assessing the vulnerability of Australian residential building stock to severe wind

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knowledge of the degree of damage to residential structures expected from severe wind is used to study the benefits from adaptation strategies developed in response to expected changes in wind severity due to climate change. This study will inform government, the insurance industry and provide emergency services with estimates of expected damage. A series of heuristic wind vulnerability curves for Australian residential structures has been developed. In order to provide rigor to the heuristic curves and to enable quantitative assessment to be made of adaptation strategies, work has commenced to produce a simulation tool to quantitatively assess damage to buildings from severe wind. The simulation tool accounts for variability in wind profile, shielding, structural strength, pressure coefficients, building orientation, component self weights, debris damage and water ingress via a Monte Carlo approach. The software takes a component-based approach to modelling building vulnerability. It is based on the premise that overall building damage is strongly related to the failure of key components (i.e. connections). If these failures can be ascertained, and associated damage from debris and water penetration reliably estimated, scenarios of complete building damage can be assessed. This approach has been developed with varying degrees of rigor by researchers around the world and is best practice for the insurance industry.

  16. Identifying the world's most climate change vulnerable species: a systematic trait-based assessment of all birds, amphibians and corals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy B Foden

    Full Text Available Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species' biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world's birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species. The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608-851 bird (6-9%, 670-933 amphibian (11-15%, and 47-73 coral species (6-9% are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability

  17. Mapping South African farming sector vulnerability to climate change and variability: A subnational assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Gbetibouo, Glwadys Aymone; Ringler, Claudia

    2009-01-01

    "This paper analyzes the vulnerability of South African farmers to climate change and variability by developing a vulnerability index and comparing vulnerability indicators across the nine provinces of the country. Nineteen environmental and socio-economic indicators are identified to reflect the three components of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results of the study show that the region's most vulnerable to climate change and variability also have a higher c...

  18. Assessment of Large Transport Infrastructure Projects: the CBA-DK model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Banister, David

    2008-01-01

    The scope of this paper is to present a newly developed decision support model to assess transport infrastructure projects: CBA-DK. The model makes use of conventional cost-benefit analysis resulting in aggregated single point estimates and quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation...... resulting in interval results. The embedded uncertainties within traditional CBA such as ex-ante based investment costs and travel time savings are of particular concern. The methodological approach has been to apply suitable probability distribution functions on the uncertain parameters, thus resulting in...

  19. Assessment of Large Transport Infrastructure Projects: The CBA-DK Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Banister, David

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a newly developed decision support model to assess transport infrastructure projects: CBA-DK. The model combines use of conventional cost–benefit analysis to produce aggregated single point estimates, with quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation to produce...... interval results. The embedded uncertainties within traditional CBA such as ex-ante based investment costs and travel time savings are of particular concern. The paper investigates these two impacts in terms of the Optimism Bias principle which is used to take account of the underestimation of construction...... costs and the overestimation of travel time savings. The CBA-DK methodological approach has been used to apply suitable probability distribution functions on the uncertain parameters, thus resulting in feasibility risk assessment moving from point to interval results. The proposed assessment model makes...

  20. A Data-Driven Approach to Assess Coastal Vulnerability: Machine Learning from Hurricane Sandy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foti, R.; Miller, S. M.; Montalto, F. A.

    2015-12-01

    As climate changes and population living along the coastlines continues to increase, an understanding of coastal risk and vulnerability to extreme events becomes increasingly important. With as many as 700,000 people living less than 3 m above the high tide line, New York City (NYC) represents one of the most threatened among major world cities. Recent events, most notably Hurricane Sandy, have put a tremendous pressure on the mosaic of economic, environmental, and social activities occurring in NYC at the interface between land and water. Using information on property damages collected by the Civil Air Patrol (CAP) after Hurricane Sandy, we developed a machine-learning based model able to identify the primary factors determining the occurrence and the severity of damages and intended to both assess and predict coastal vulnerability. The available dataset consists of categorical classifications of damages, ranging from 0 (not damaged) to 5 (damaged and flooded), and available for a sample of buildings in the NYC area. A set of algorithms, such as Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest, were trained on 75% of the available dataset and tested on the remaining 25%, both training and test sets being picked at random. A combination of factors, including elevation, distance from shore, surge depth, soil type and proximity to key topographic features, such as wetlands and parks, were used as predictors. Trained algorithms were able to achieve over 85% prediction accuracy on both the training set and, most notably, the test set, with as few as six predictors, allowing a realistic depiction of the field of damage. Given their accuracy and robustness, we believe that these algorithms can be successfully applied to provide fields of coastal vulnerability for future extreme events, as well as to assess the consequences of changes, whether intended (e.g. land use change) or contingent (e.g. sea level rise), in the physical layout of NYC.

  1. A Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Assessment of Coastal Landmarks along Cape Hatteras National Seashore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flynn, M. J.

    2015-12-01

    Cape Hatteras National Seashore is located along the Outer Banks, a narrow string of barrier islands in eastern North Carolina. The seashore was established to preserve cultural and natural resources of national significance, yet these islands have shoreline rates of change that are predominately erosional, frequently experience storm surge inundation driven by tropical and extra-tropical storm events, and are highly vulnerable to sea level rise. The National Park Service staff are concerned about the vulnerability of historic structures located within the park, and recognized the utility of a coastal hazard risk assessment to assist park managers with long-term planning. They formed a cooperative agreement with researchers at East Carolina University to conduct the assessment, which primarily used GIS to evaluate the susceptibility of 27 historical structures to coastal erosion, storm surge, and sea-level rise. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System was used to calculate a linear regression rate of shoreline movement based on historical shorelines. Those rates were used to simulate the future position of the shoreline along transects. The SLOSH model output was down scaled to a DEM generated from the 2014 NC QL2 LiDAR collection to determine the extent and depth of inundation that would occur from storm events. Sea level rise was modeled for various scenarios referenced to existing MHHW, and also added to each SLOSH model output to determine the effect of a storm event under those sea level rise scenarios. Risk maps were developed to include not only areal coverage for existing structures and districts, but also identify potential areas of relocation or retreat in the long-term. In addition to evaluating vulnerability, timelines for potential impacts provided scenarios for National Park Service staff to research adaption and mitigation strategies.

  2. Vulnerability Assessment of Environmental and Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Al Jabal Al Akhdar, Sultanate of Oman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Saif Al-Kalbani

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and its consequences present one of the most important threats to water resources systems which are vulnerable to such changes due to their limited adaptive capacity. Water resources in arid mountain regions, such as Al Jabal Al Akhdar; northern Sultanate of Oman, are vulnerable to the potential adverse impacts of environmental and climate change. Besides climatic change, current demographic trends, economic development and related land use changes are exerting pressures and have direct impacts on increasing demands for water resources and their vulnerability. In this study, vulnerability assessment was carried out using guidelines prepared by United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP and Peking University to evaluate four components of the water resource system: water resources stress, water development pressure, ecological health, and management capacity. The calculated vulnerability index (VI was high, indicating that the water resources are experiencing levels of stress. Ecosystem deterioration was the dominant parameter and management capacity was the dominant category driving the vulnerability on water resources. The vulnerability assessment will support policy and decision makers in evaluating options to modify existing policies. It will also help in developing long-term strategic plans for climate change mitigation and adaptation measures and implement effective policies for sustainable water resources management, and therefore the sustenance of human wellbeing in the region.

  3. Groundwater Vulnerability to Seawater Intrusion along Coastal Urban Areas: A Quantitative Comparative Assessment of EPIK and DRASTIC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Momjian, Nanor; Abou Najm, Majdi; Alameddine, Ibrahim; El-Fadel, Mutasem

    2015-04-01

    Groundwater vulnerability assessment models are invariably coupled with Geographic Information Systems to provide decision makers with easier visualization of complex systems. In this study, we examine the uncertainty associated with such models (DRASTIC, EPIK) in assessing seawater intrusion, a growing threat along coastal urban cities due to overexploitation of groundwater resources associated with population growth and more recently, exacerbated by climate change impacts. For this purpose, a mapping of groundwater vulnerability was first conducted at a country level (Lebanon) and coupled with a groundwater quality monitoring program in three coastal cities for cross-validation. Then, six water quality categories were defined and mapped based on water quality standards ranging from drinking to seawater with weighted scores assigned for each category in both DRASTIC and EPIK for cross-validation. Finally, the results of groundwater quality tests were compared with vulnerability predictions at sampling points using two indicators (Chloride and TDS). While field measurements demonstrated the high vulnerability to seawater intrusion in coastal urbanized areas, the modelling results exhibited variations from field measurements reaching up to two water quality categories. Vertical-based vulnerability models demonstrated poor correlation when the anthropogenic impact was introduced through a process that depends on lateral groundwater flow thus highlighting (1) the limited ability of such models to capture vulnerability to lateral seawater intrusion induced primarily by vertical groundwater withdrawal, and (2) the need to incorporate depth and underlying lithology into the layers of groundwater vulnerability models when examining horizontally induced contamination such as seawater intrusion.

  4. Intrinsic vulnerability assessment of the aquifer in the Rižana spring chatcment by method SINTACS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2002-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper is presented intrinsic vulnerability assessment of the aquifer in the Rižana spring chatcment by the method SINTACS. It is parametric method that takes into consideration seven parameters (depth to ground water, effective infiltration action, unsaturatedzone attenuation capacity, soil/overburden attenuation capacity, hydrogeological characteristics of the aquifer, hydraulic conductivity range of aquifer, hydrologic role of the topographic slope. Parameters are presented in grid information layers that wereelaborated on the basis of interpretation and GIS processing of geological, hydrogeological,speleological, topographical, meteorological and pedological data. According to the parametersimportance for vulnerability assessment, a multiplier (importance weight was assigned to each parameter. Final map of vulnerability is a result of overlaying (summing of weighted information layers (parameters and shows the catchment area of the Rižanaspring subdivided into six vulnerability classes.

  5. Assessment of groundwater vulnerability to nitrates from agricultural sources using a GIS-compatible logic multicriteria model

    OpenAIRE

    Rebolledo, Boris; Gil, Antonia; Flotats Ripoll, Xavier; Sánchez, José Ángel

    2016-01-01

    In the present study an overlay method to assess groundwater vulnerability is proposed. This new method based on multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) was developed and validated using an appropriate case study in Aragon area (NE Spain). The Vulnerability Index to Nitrates from Agricultural Sources (VINAS) incorporates a novel Logic Scoring of Preferences (LSP) approach, and it has been developed using public geographic information from the European Union. VINAS-LSP identifies areas with fiv...

  6. Identifying the World's Most Climate Change Vulnerable Species: A Systematic Trait-Based Assessment of all Birds, Amphibians and Corals

    OpenAIRE

    Foden, Wendy B.; Stuart H M Butchart; Simon N Stuart; Jean-Christophe Vié; H Resit Akçakaya; Ariadne Angulo; DeVantier, Lyndon M.; Alexander Gutsche; Emre Turak; Long Cao; Donner, Simon D.; Vineet Katariya; Rodolphe Bernard; Holland, Robert A.; Hughes, Adrian F.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on specie...

  7. ASSESSMENT OF COASTAL VULNERABILITY TO SEA LEVEL RISE OF BOLINAO, PANGASINAN USING REMOTE SENSING AND GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS

    OpenAIRE

    Reyes, S. R. C.; A. C. Blanco

    2012-01-01

    A number of studies assessing the vulnerability of Southeast Asia to climate change have classified the Philippines as one of the vulnerable countries in the region. Bolinao, Pangasinan is a municipality located in northwestern Luzon, situated in the western part of the Lingayen Gulf and is bounded on the north and west by the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). Recent studies have verified the varying trends in sea level across the South China Sea, which is considered as one of the larges...

  8. IRIS guidelines. 2014 ed. Integrated Review of Infrastructure for Safety (IRIS) for self-assessment when establishing the safety infrastructure for a nuclear power programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The IAEA safety standards reflect an international consensus on what constitutes a high level of safety for protecting people and the environment, and therefore represent what all Member States should achieve, whilst recognizing the ultimate responsibility of each State to ensure safety when implementing a nuclear power programme. IAEA Safety Standards Series No. SSG-16, entitled Establishing the Safety Infrastructure for a Nuclear Power Programme was published in order to provide recommendations, presented in the form of sequential actions, on meeting safety requirements progressively during the initial three phases of the development of safety, as described in INSAG-22, Nuclear Safety Infrastructure for a National Nuclear Power Programme Supported by the IAEA Fundamental Safety Principles. To that end, the 200 safety related actions, which are proposed by SSG-16, constitute a roadmap to establish a foundation for promoting a high level of safety over the entire lifetime of the nuclear power plant. These actions reflect international consensus on good practice in order to achieve full implementation of IAEA safety standards. The IAEA has developed a methodology and tool, the Integrated Review of Infrastructure for Safety (IRIS), to assist States in undertaking self-assessment with respect to SSG-16 recommendations when establishing the safety infrastructure for a nuclear power programme, and to develop an action plan for improvement. The IRIS methodology and the associated tool are fully compatible with the IAEA safety standards and are also used, when appropriate, in the preparation of review missions, such as the Integrated Regulatory Review Service and advisory missions. The present guidelines describe the IRIS methodology for self-assessment against SSG-16 recommendations. Through IRIS implementation, every organization concerned with nuclear safety may gain proper awareness and engage in a continuous progressive process to develop the effective national

  9. Pollution Vulnerability Assessment of Aquifers Overlain By Glacial Sediment Using Electrical Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilner, M. D.; West, L. J.; Murray, T.

    The vulnerability of confined aquifers to pollution from sources at the surface depends on the permeability of overlying units. Permeable units such as sand and gravel will provide potential pathways for contaminants to enter the aquifer whereas impermeable units such as clay will retard their movement and hence provide some protection to the aquifer. Aquifer vulnerability assessment in the UK is largely based upon data from boreholes drilled for well installation. However, in areas where the geology of the confining layer is relatively complex (e.g. glacial sequences) aquifer vulnerability is often poorly constrained due to insufficient borehole coverage. Reported here is an investigation of the potential for using geophysical techniques such as resistivity to support improved aquifer vulnerability assessment in such areas. In the area of Holderness, East Yorkshire, UK, glacially derived sediment deposited during the late Devensian (10,000 years BP.) overlies the Cretaceous Chalk, which is the most important groundwater resource in the UK. Despite 5 to 30m of glacial cover being present, there are several examples where large borehole abstractions have been closed down because very minor activities (e.g. coffer dam construction, hedge re- moval) have led to rapid surface water ingress and consequent bacterial contamination of the Chalk. Borehole records from the area have highlighted heterogeneity within the glacial sediment on a sub decametre scale in ice-marginal deposits. Boreholes can not hope to map such heterogeneity throughout Holderness, so the potential of resistivity techniques (profiling and EM31) to provide the spatial resolution required to identify such features has been investigated by forward modelling. Different geological bod- ies with a range of geophysical parameters and electrode configurations were input into RES2DMOD (Loke, 1996) and suitable parameters to use in field trials identi- fied. Subsequent trials over an area of good geological

  10. Risk management and the vulnerability assessment process of the United States Department of Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Risk management is an essential element in influencing how the United States Department of Energy's safeguards and security mission is executed. Risk management exists as a function of a target's attractiveness, along with the potential consequences associated with the unauthorized use of that target. The goal of risk management encompasses the fielding and operating of appropriate, cost-effective protection systems generating sufficient deterrence to protect sensitive programs and facilities. Risk mitigation and risk prevention are accomplished through the vulnerability assessment process. The implementation and continued validation of measures to prevent or mitigate risk to acceptable levels constitute the fundamental approach of the Department's risk management program. Due to the incomplete knowledge inherent in any threat definition, it is impossible to precisely tailor a protective system to defend against all threats. The challenge presented to safeguards and security program managers lies in developing systems sufficiently effective to defend against an array of threats slightly greater than can be hypothetically postulated (the design basis threat amended for local conditions). These systems are then balanced against technological, resource, and fiscal constraints. A key element in the risk assessment process is analyzing the security systems against the Design Basis Threat (DBT). The DBT is used to define the level and capability of the threat against the DOE facilities and their assets. In particular it defines motivation, numbers of adversaries, capabilities, and their objectives. Site Safeguards and Security Plans (SSSPs) provide the basis and justification for safeguards and security program development, budget, and staffing requirements. The SSSP process examines, describes, and documents safeguards and security programs, site-wide and by facility; establishes safeguards and security program improvement priorities; describes site and

  11. Resilience assessment of interdependent infrastructure systems: With a focus on joint restoration modeling and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As infrastructure systems are highly interconnected, it is crucial to analyze their resilience with the consideration of their interdependencies. This paper adapts an existing resilience assessment framework for single systems to interdependent systems and mainly focuses on modeling and resilience contribution analysis of multi-systems’ joint restoration processes, which are seldom addressed in the literature. Taking interdependent power and gas systems in Houston, Texas, USA under hurricane hazards as an illustrative exmaple, five types of joint restoration stategies are proposed, including random restoration strategy RS1, independent restoration strategy RS2, power first and gas second restoration strategy RS3, gas aimed restoration strategy RS4, and power and gas compromised restoration strategy RS5. Results show that under limited restoration resources, RS1 produces the least resilience for both systems, RS2 and RS3 both generates the largest power system resilience while RS4 is the best for the gas system; and if quantifying the total resilience as the evenly weighted sum of two systems’ individual resilience, RS5 produces the largest total resilience. The proposed method can help decision makers search optimum joint restoration strategy, which can significantly enhance both systems’ resilience. - Highlights: • We propose a method to assess resilience of interdependent infrastructure systems. • We consider unidirectional interdependencies from power system to gas system. • Multi-systems’ restoration processes are solved by using genetic algorithm. • Effectiveness of five restoration strategies are compared and analyzed. • Interdependency-based strategies produce the largest total resilience

  12. Collaborative mobile sensing and computing for civil infrastructure condition assessment: framework and applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jianfei; Chen, ZhiQiang

    2012-04-01

    Multi-function sensing and imaging devices, GPS, communication and computing devices are being ubiquitously used in field by engineers in civil engineering and emergence response practice. Field engineers, however, still have difficulty to balance between ever-increasing data collection demand and capacity of real-time data processing and knowledge sharing. In addition, field engineers usually work collaboratively in a geospatially large area; however, the existing sensing and computing modalities used in the field are not designed to accommodate this condition. In this paper, we present a solution framework of collaborative mobile sensing and computing (CMSC) for civil infrastructure condition assessment, with the Android-based mobile devices as the basic nodes in the framework with a potential of adding other auxiliary imaging and sensing devices into the network. Difficulties in mixed C++ and Java code programming that are critical to realize the framework are discussed. With a few prototypes illustrated in this paper, we envisage that the proposed CMSC framework will enable seamless integration of sensing, imaging, real-time processing and knowledge discovery in future engineers-centered field reconnaissances and civil infrastructure condition assessment.

  13. A vulnerability assessment process and enhancements in nuclear material protection control and accountability programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories have conducted Vulnerability Analysis (VA) workshops at several Russian nuclear institutes over the past year and a half. These workshops present quantitative probabilistic risk analysis techniques used by the US Department of Energy (US DOE) to evaluate the overall effectiveness of the protection systems for category 1 and 2 and Special Nuclear Material (SNM) facilities in the US. The VA workshops focus on utilizing the computer-based analysis tool, Analytical System and Software for Evaluating Safeguards and Security (ASSESS), to quantify the detection, delay and neutralization probabilities for the protection systems. The workshops provide instruction to Russian organizations responsible for nuclear Material Protection Control and Accountability (MPC and A) in an effort to communicate how DOE assesses the status of protection systems, and how to use the assessments to evaluate and prioritize potential MPC and A enhancements. The VA methodology introduced in the workshops is now being used to provide an initial quantification of risk at each institute where the workshop is conducted. Further, MPC and A enhancements and upgrades, identified by the class participants during the workshop or as a follow-on activity, have been or will be implemented at several nuclear facilities within Russian. This paper will discuss the vulnerability assessment and computer modeling techniques presented at the Russian nuclear facilities by the US DOE National Laboratories, review the issues associated with adopting a US evaluation methodology in Russia, and explain how the application of this methodology could lead to more cost effective MPC and A program enhancements throughout Russia

  14. An integrated framework for assessing vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies for coffee growing families in Mesoamerica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baca, María; Läderach, Peter; Haggar, Jeremy; Schroth, Götz; Ovalle, Oriana

    2014-01-01

    The Mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change. We developed a framework for quantifying the vulnerability of the livelihoods of coffee growers in Mesoamerica at regional and local levels and identify adaptation strategies. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concepts, vulnerability was defined as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To quantify exposure, changes in the climatic suitability for coffee and other crops were predicted through niche modelling based on historical climate data and locations of coffee growing areas from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Future climate projections were generated from 19 Global Circulation Models. Focus groups were used to identify nine indicators of sensitivity and eleven indicators of adaptive capacity, which were evaluated through semi-structured interviews with 558 coffee producers. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were then condensed into an index of vulnerability, and adaptation strategies were identified in participatory workshops. Models predict that all target countries will experience a decrease in climatic suitability for growing Arabica coffee, with highest suitability loss for El Salvador and lowest loss for Mexico. High vulnerability resulted from loss in climatic suitability for coffee production and high sensitivity through variability of yields and out-migration of the work force. This was combined with low adaptation capacity as evidenced by poor post harvest infrastructure and in some cases poor access to credit and low levels of social organization. Nevertheless, the specific contributors to vulnerability varied strongly among countries, municipalities and families making general trends difficult to identify. Flexible strategies for adaption are therefore needed. Families need the support of government and institutions specialized in impacts of climate change and

  15. An integrated framework for assessing vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies for coffee growing families in Mesoamerica.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Baca

    Full Text Available The Mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change. We developed a framework for quantifying the vulnerability of the livelihoods of coffee growers in Mesoamerica at regional and local levels and identify adaptation strategies. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC concepts, vulnerability was defined as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To quantify exposure, changes in the climatic suitability for coffee and other crops were predicted through niche modelling based on historical climate data and locations of coffee growing areas from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Future climate projections were generated from 19 Global Circulation Models. Focus groups were used to identify nine indicators of sensitivity and eleven indicators of adaptive capacity, which were evaluated through semi-structured interviews with 558 coffee producers. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were then condensed into an index of vulnerability, and adaptation strategies were identified in participatory workshops. Models predict that all target countries will experience a decrease in climatic suitability for growing Arabica coffee, with highest suitability loss for El Salvador and lowest loss for Mexico. High vulnerability resulted from loss in climatic suitability for coffee production and high sensitivity through variability of yields and out-migration of the work force. This was combined with low adaptation capacity as evidenced by poor post harvest infrastructure and in some cases poor access to credit and low levels of social organization. Nevertheless, the specific contributors to vulnerability varied strongly among countries, municipalities and families making general trends difficult to identify. Flexible strategies for adaption are therefore needed. Families need the support of government and institutions specialized in impacts of

  16. 'Rosatom' sites vulnerability analysis and assessment of their physical protection effectiveness. Methodology and 'tools'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Enhancement of physical protection (PP) efficiency at nuclear sites (NS) of State Corporation (SC) 'Rosatom' is one of priorities. This issue is reflected in a series of international and Russian documents. PP enhancement at the sites can be achieved through upgrades of both administrative procedures and technical security system. However, in any case it is requisite to initially identify the so called 'objects of physical protection', that is, answer the question of what we need to protect and identify design basis threats (DBT) and adversary models. Answers to these questions constitute the contents of papers on vulnerability analysis (VA) for nuclear sites. Further, it is necessary to answer the question, to what extent we protect these 'objects of physical protection' and site as a whole; and this is the essence of assessment of physical protection effectiveness. In the process of effectiveness assessment at specific Rosatom sites we assess the effectiveness of the existing physical protection system (PPS) and the proposed options of its upgrades. Besides, there comes a possibility to select the optimal option based on 'cost-efficiency' criterion. Implementation of this work is a mandatory requirement as defined in federal level documents. In State Corporation 'Rosatom' there are methodologies in place for vulnerability analysis and effectiveness assessment as well as 'tools' (methods, regulations, computer software), that make it possible to put the above work into practice. There are corresponding regulations developed and approved by the Rosatom senior management. Special software for PPS effectiveness assessment called 'Vega-2' developed by a Rosatom specialized subsidiary - State Enterprise 'Eleron', is designed to assess PPS effectiveness at fixed nuclear sites. It was implemented practically at all the major Rosatom nuclear sites. As of now, this 'Vega-2' software has been certified and prepared for forwarding to corporation's nuclear sites so

  17. Multi-hazards coastal vulnerability assessment of Goa, India, using geospatial techniques.

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Kunte, P.D.; Jauhari, N.; Mehrotra, U.; Kotha, M.; Hursthouse, A.S.; Gagnon, A.S.

    (CVI) for the state of Goa and to use this index to examine the vulnerability of the different administrative units of the state, known as talukas. This is accomplished by using seven physical and geologic risk variables characterising the vulnerability...

  18. Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) Assessment for the National Park of American Samoa (npsa_shore)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within The National Park of American Samoa ....

  19. Development of a structural health monitoring system for the life assessment of critical transportation infrastructure.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roach, Dennis Patrick; Jauregui, David Villegas (New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM); Daumueller, Andrew Nicholas (New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM)

    2012-02-01

    Recent structural failures such as the I-35W Mississippi River Bridge in Minnesota have underscored the urgent need for improved methods and procedures for evaluating our aging transportation infrastructure. This research seeks to develop a basis for a Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) system to provide quantitative information related to the structural integrity of metallic structures to make appropriate management decisions and ensuring public safety. This research employs advanced structural analysis and nondestructive testing (NDT) methods for an accurate fatigue analysis. Metal railroad bridges in New Mexico will be the focus since many of these structures are over 100 years old and classified as fracture-critical. The term fracture-critical indicates that failure of a single component may result in complete collapse of the structure such as the one experienced by the I-35W Bridge. Failure may originate from sources such as loss of section due to corrosion or cracking caused by fatigue loading. Because standard inspection practice is primarily visual, these types of defects can go undetected due to oversight, lack of access to critical areas, or, in riveted members, hidden defects that are beneath fasteners or connection angles. Another issue is that it is difficult to determine the fatigue damage that a structure has experienced and the rate at which damage is accumulating due to uncertain history and load distribution in supporting members. A SHM system has several advantages that can overcome these limitations. SHM allows critical areas of the structure to be monitored more quantitatively under actual loading. The research needed to apply SHM to metallic structures was performed and a case study was carried out to show the potential of SHM-driven fatigue evaluation to assess the condition of critical transportation infrastructure and to guide inspectors to potential problem areas. This project combines the expertise in transportation infrastructure at New

  20. Numerical rivers: A synthetic streamflow generator for water resources vulnerability assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borgomeo, Edoardo; Farmer, Christopher L.; Hall, Jim W.

    2015-07-01

    The vulnerability of water supplies to shortage depends on the complex interplay between streamflow variability and the management and demands of the water system. Assessments of water supply vulnerability to potential changes in streamflow require methods capable of generating a wide range of possible streamflow sequences. This paper presents a method to generate synthetic monthly streamflow sequences that reproduce the statistics of the historical record and that can express climate-induced changes in user-specified streamflow characteristics. The streamflow sequences are numerically simulated through random sampling from a parametric or a nonparametric distribution fitted to the historical data while shuffling the values in the time series until a sequence matching a set of desired temporal properties is generated. The desired properties are specified in an objective function which is optimized using simulated annealing. The properties in the objective function can be manipulated to generate streamflow sequences that exhibit climate-induced changes in streamflow characteristics such as interannual variability or persistence. The method is applied to monthly streamflow data from the Thames River at Kingston (UK) to generate sequences that reproduce historical streamflow statistics at the monthly and annual time scales and to generate perturbed synthetic sequences expressing changes in short-term persistence and interannual variability.

  1. A method for rapid vulnerability assessment of structures loaded by outside blasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The blast have in most cases not been assumed as design basis loads of nuclear power plant buildings and structures. Recent developments however stimulated a number of analyses quantifying the potential effect of such loads. An effort was therefore made by the authors to revisit simple and robust structural analysis methods and to propose their use in the vulnerability assessment of blast-loaded structures. The leading idea is to break the structure into a set of typical structural elements, for which the response is estimated by the use of slightly modified handbook formulas. The proposed method includes provisions to predict the inelastic response and failure. Simplicity and versatility of the method facilitate its use in structural reliability calculations. The most important aspects of the proposed method are presented along with illustrative sample applications demonstrating: - results comparable to full scale dynamic simulations using explicit finite element codes and - the performance of the method in screening the existing structures and providing the structural reliability information for the vulnerability analysis. (author)

  2. Rapid assessment for seismic vulnerability of low and medium rise infilled RC frame buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Nimry, Hanan; Resheidat, Musa; Qeran, Saddam

    2015-06-01

    An indexing method for rapid evaluation of the seismic vulnerability of infilled RC frame buildings in Jordan is proposed. The method aims at identifying low and medium rise residential buildings as safe or in need of further detailed evaluation. Following a rapid visual screening, the building is assigned a Basic Capacity Index (BCI); five performance modifiers are identified and multiplied by the BCI to arrive at the Capacity Index (CI) of the building. A Capacity Index lower than a limit CI value indicates that the screened building could experience moderate earthquake damage whereas a higher value implies that minor damage, if any, would take place. To establish the basic evaluation parameters; forty RC frame buildings were selected, designed and analyzed using static nonlinear analysis and incorporating the effect of infill walls. Effects of seismicity, local site conditions, horizontal irregularities (setbacks and re-entrant corners), vertical irregularities (soft story at ground floor level) and overhangs on the seismic performance of local buildings were examined. Assessment forms were designed and used to evaluate and rank 112 sample buildings. About 40% of the surveyed buildings were found to be in need of detailed evaluation to better define their seismic vulnerabilities.

  3. Integrating human responses to climate change into conservation vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Sean L; Venter, Oscar; Jones, Kendall R; Watson, James E M

    2015-10-01

    The impact of climate change on biodiversity is now evident, with the direct impacts of changing temperature and rainfall patterns and increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events on species distribution, populations, and overall ecosystem function being increasingly publicized. Changes in the climate system are also affecting human communities, and a range of human responses across terrestrial and marine realms have been witnessed, including altered agricultural activities, shifting fishing efforts, and human migration. Failing to account for the human responses to climate change is likely to compromise climate-smart conservation efforts. Here, we use a well-established conservation planning framework to show how integrating human responses to climate change into both species- and site-based vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans is possible. By explicitly taking into account human responses, conservation practitioners will improve their evaluation of species and ecosystem vulnerability, and will be better able to deliver win-wins for human- and biodiversity-focused climate adaptation. PMID:26555860

  4. Intrinsic vulnerability assessment of the south-eastern Murge (Apulia, southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Marsico

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Maps of areas with different vulnerability degrees are an integral part of environmental protection and management policies. It is difficult to assess the intrinsic vulnerability of karst areas since the stage and type of karst structure development and its related underground discharge behaviour are not easy to determine. Therefore, some improvements, which take into account dolines, caves and superficial lineament arrangement, have been integrated into the SINTACS R5 method and applied to a karst area of the south-eastern Murge (Apulia, southern Italy. The proposed approach integrates the SINTACS model giving more weight to morphological and structural data; in particular the following parameters have been modified: depth to groundwater, effective infiltration action, unsaturated zone attenuation capacity and soil/overburden attenuation capacity. Effective hydrogeological and impacting situations are also arranged using superficial lineaments and karst density. In order to verify the reliability of the modified procedure, a comparison is made with the original SINTACS R5 index evaluated in the same area. The results of both SINTACS index maps are compared with karst and structural features identified in the area and with groundwater nitrate concentrations recorded in wells. The best fitting SINTACS map is then overlaid by the layout of potential pollution centres providing a complete map of the pollution risk in the area.

  5. Assessment of groundwater vulnerability to leachate infiltration using electrical resistivity method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosuro, G. O.; Omosanya, K. O.; Bayewu, O. O.; Oloruntola, M. O.; Laniyan, T. A.; Atobi, O.; Okubena, M.; Popoola, E.; Adekoya, F.

    2016-02-01

    This aim of this work is to assess the degree of leachate infiltration at a dumpsite in Agbara industrial estate, Southwestern Nigeria using electrical resistivity techniques. Around the dumpsite were 45 vertical electrical sounding (VES) stations and 3 electrical resistivity tomography profiles. Current electrode spread varied from 300 to 600 m for the electrical sounding. Electrode configuration includes Schlumberger and Wenner array for sounding and profiling. The state of leachate contamination was tested using parameters such as aquifer vulnerability index, overburden protective capacity and longitudinal unit conductance (Si) derived from the apparent resistivity values. Four principal geoelectric layers inferred from the VES data include the topsoil, sand, clayey sand, and clay/shale. Resistivity values for these layers vary from 3 to 1688, 203 to 3642 123 to 388, and 67 to 2201 Ω m with corresponding thickness of 0.8-2.4, 2.5-140, 3-26 m and infinity, respectively. The leachate plume occurs at a maximum depth of 10 m on the 2-D inverse models of real electrical resistivity with an average depth of infiltration being 6 m in the study area. The correlation between longitudinal conductance and overburden protective capacity show that aquifers around the dumpsite have poor protective capacity and are vulnerable to leachate contamination. Leachate infiltration is favored by the absence of lithological barriers such as clay which in the study area are either mixed with sand or positioned away from the aquifer.

  6. On the Science-Policy Bridge: Do Spatial Heat Vulnerability Assessment Studies Influence Policy?

    OpenAIRE

    Tanja Wolf; Wen-Ching Chuang; Glenn McGregor

    2015-01-01

    Human vulnerability to heat varies at a range of spatial scales, especially within cities where there can be noticeable intra-urban differences in heat risk factors. Mapping and visualizing intra-urban heat vulnerability offers opportunities for presenting information to support decision-making. For example the visualization of the spatial variation of heat vulnerability has the potential to enable local governments to identify hot spots of vulnerability and allocate resources and increase as...

  7. Spatial analysis and modeling to assess and map current vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed, Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    One of the major concerns over a potential change in climate is that it will cause an increase in extreme weather events. In Mexico, the exposure factors as well as the vulnerability to the extreme weather events have increased during the last three or four decades. In this study spatial analysis and modeling were used to assess and map settlement and crop systems vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed. Sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity maps were constructed using decision models; these maps were then combined to produce vulnerability maps. The most vulnerable area in terms of both settlement and crop systems is the highlands, where the sensitivity is high and the adaptive capacity is low. In lowlands, despite the very high sensitivity, the higher adaptive capacity produces only moderate vulnerability. I conclude that spatial analysis and modeling are powerful tools to assess and map vulnerability. These preliminary results can guide the formulation of adaptation policies to an increasing risk of extreme weather events.

  8. Vulnerability Assessment of Natural Disasters for Small and Mid-Sized Streams due to Climate Change and Stream Improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, D.; Jun, H. D.; Kim, S.

    2012-04-01

    Vulnerability assessment plays an important role in drawing up climate change adaptation plans. Although there are some studies on broad vulnerability assessment in Korea, there have been very few studies to develop and apply locally focused and specific sector-oriented climate change vulnerability indicators. Especially, there has seldom been any study to investigate the effect of an adaptation project on assessing the vulnerability status to climate change for fundamental local governments. In order to relieve adverse effects of climate change, Korean government has performed the project of the Major Four Rivers (Han, Geum, Nakdong and Yeongsan river) Restoration since 2008. It is expected that water level in main stream of 4 rivers will be dropped through this project, but flood effect will be mainly occurred in small and mid-sized streams which flows in main stream. Hence, we examined how much the project of the major four rivers restoration relieves natural disasters. Conceptual framework of vulnerability-resilience index to climate change for the Korean fundamental local governments is defined as a function of climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Then, statistical data on scores of proxy variables assumed to comprise climate change vulnerability for local governments are collected. Proxy variables and estimated temporary weights of them are selected by surveying a panel of experts using Delphi method, and final weights are determined by modified Entropy method. Developed vulnerability-resilience index was applied to Korean fundamental local governments and it is calculated under each scenario as follows. (1) Before the major four rivers restoration, (2) 100 years after represented climate change condition without the major four rivers restoration, (3) After the major four rivers restoration without representing climate change (this means present climate condition) and (4) After the major four rivers restoration and 100 years after represented

  9. Coastal vulnerability assessment of the Northern Gulf of Mexico to sea-level rise and coastal change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pendleton, E.A.; Barras, J.A.; Williams, S.J.; Twichell, D.C.

    2010-01-01

    A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise along the Northern Gulf of Mexico from Galveston, TX, to Panama City, FL. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rate, mean tidal range, and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each variable are combined and an index value is calculated for 1-kilometer grid cells along the coast. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. The CVI assessment presented here builds on an earlier assessment conducted for the Gulf of Mexico. Recent higher resolution shoreline change, land loss, elevation, and subsidence data provide the foundation for a better assessment for the Northern Gulf of Mexico. The areas along the Northern Gulf of Mexico that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are parts of the Louisiana Chenier Plain, Teche-Vermillion Basin, and the Mississippi barrier islands, as well as most of the Terrebonne and Barataria Bay region and the Chandeleur Islands. These very high vulnerability areas have the highest rates of relative sea-level rise and the highest rates of shoreline change or land area loss. The information provided by coastal vulnerability assessments can be used in long-term coastal management and policy decision making.

  10. A toolkit for integrated deterministic and probabilistic assessment for hydrogen infrastructure.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groth, Katrina M.; Tchouvelev, Andrei V.

    2014-03-01

    There has been increasing interest in using Quantitative Risk Assessment [QRA] to help improve the safety of hydrogen infrastructure and applications. Hydrogen infrastructure for transportation (e.g. fueling fuel cell vehicles) or stationary (e.g. back-up power) applications is a relatively new area for application of QRA vs. traditional industrial production and use, and as a result there are few tools designed to enable QRA for this emerging sector. There are few existing QRA tools containing models that have been developed and validated for use in small-scale hydrogen applications. However, in the past several years, there has been significant progress in developing and validating deterministic physical and engineering models for hydrogen dispersion, ignition, and flame behavior. In parallel, there has been progress in developing defensible probabilistic models for the occurrence of events such as hydrogen release and ignition. While models and data are available, using this information is difficult due to a lack of readily available tools for integrating deterministic and probabilistic components into a single analysis framework. This paper discusses the first steps in building an integrated toolkit for performing QRA on hydrogen transportation technologies and suggests directions for extending the toolkit.

  11. Spatially explicit groundwater vulnerability assessment to support the implementation of the Water Framework Directive – a practical approach with stakeholders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Berkhoff

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of the study presented in this paper was to develop an evaluation scheme which is suitable for spatially explicit groundwater vulnerability assessment according to the Water Framework Directive (WFD. Study area was the Hase river catchment, an area of about 3 000 km2 in north-west Germany which is dominated by livestock farming, in particular pig and poultry production. For the Hase river catchment, the first inventory of the WFD led to the conclusion that 98% of the catchment area is "unclear/unlikely" to reach a good groundwater status due to diffuse nitrogen emissions from agriculture. The groundwater vulnerability assessment was embedded in the PartizipA project ("Participative modelling, Actor and Ecosystem Analysis in Regions with Intensive Agriculture", www.partizipa.net, within which a so-called actors' platform was established in the study area. The objective of the participatory process was to investigate the effects of the WFD on agriculture as well as to discuss groundwater protection measures which are suitable for an integration in the programme of measures. The study was conducted according to the vulnerability assessment concept of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, considering sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity. Sensitivity was computed using the DRASTIC index of natural groundwater pollution potential. Exposure (for a reference scenario was computed using the STOFFBILANZ nutrient model. Several regional studies were analysed to evaluate the adaptive capacity. From these studies it was concluded that the adaptive capacity in the Hase river catchment is very low due to the economic importance of the agricultural sector which will be significantly affected by groundwater protection measures. As a consequence, the adaptive capacity was not considered any more in the vulnerability assessment. A groundwater vulnerability evaluation scheme is presented which enjoys the advantage that both

  12. Vulnerability of the Barents Sea environment to climate changes: a review of the current assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gelfan, A.; Danilov-Danilyan, V.

    2009-07-15

    Authors' conclusion: Climate change is not considered to be just 'one more stress' on the ecosystem, but rather it will create complex and dynamic changes in the environment that may alter the level of its vulnerability. Cumulative effects can be defined as changes to the environment that are caused by an action in combination with other past, present and future human actions (Environment Canada 2003). The magnitude and effects of multiple stresses can be equal to the sum of the individual effects (additive effects) or they may strengthen or weaken each other (positive or negative feedbacks). To understand complex interactions within the system atmosphere-land surface-ocean at regional scales and to assess influence of the environmental changes on the ecological conditions, sophisticated models should be developed allowing to account for regional peculiarities of these systems. Development of such models is considered as one of the main challenge of the Earth system science. (author)

  13. LAVA (Los Alamos Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Methodology): A conceptual framework for automated risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, S.T.; Lim, J.J.; Phillips, J.R.; Tisinger, R.M.; Brown, D.C.; FitzGerald, P.D.

    1986-01-01

    At Los Alamos National Laboratory, we have developed an original methodology for performing risk analyses on subject systems characterized by a general set of asset categories, a general spectrum of threats, a definable system-specific set of safeguards protecting the assets from the threats, and a general set of outcomes resulting from threats exploiting weaknesses in the safeguards system. The Los Alamos Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Methodology (LAVA) models complex systems having large amounts of ''soft'' information about both the system itself and occurrences related to the system. Its structure lends itself well to automation on a portable computer, making it possible to analyze numerous similar but geographically separated installations consistently and in as much depth as the subject system warrants. LAVA is based on hierarchical systems theory, event trees, fuzzy sets, natural-language processing, decision theory, and utility theory. LAVA's framework is a hierarchical set of fuzzy event trees that relate the results of several embedded (or sub-) analyses: a vulnerability assessment providing information about the presence and efficacy of system safeguards, a threat analysis providing information about static (background) and dynamic (changing) threat components coupled with an analysis of asset ''attractiveness'' to the dynamic threat, and a consequence analysis providing information about the outcome spectrum's severity measures and impact values. By using LAVA, we have modeled our widely used computer security application as well as LAVA/CS systems for physical protection, transborder data flow, contract awards, and property management. It is presently being applied for modeling risk management in embedded systems, survivability systems, and weapons systems security. LAVA is especially effective in modeling subject systems that include a large human component.

  14. Assessment Of Slope Covers Vulnerability To Shallow Mass Movements Using Sinmap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demczuk, Piotr; Zydroń, Tymoteusz; Franczak, Łukasz

    2014-06-01

    In Flysch Carpathians mass movements are a significant factor that causes changes in the morphology of slopes and, in many cases, causes also economic damage. A complicated geological structure of the area, high height differences and high rainfall, which is the main factor initiating mass movements, are mainly listed among the basic conditions for such type of processes to occur. Infiltration of rainfall in the soil profile can lead to a loss of stability in two ways (Crosta 1998). Infiltration process can cause an increase in the groundwater level when there are low intensity rainfalls. High intensity rainfalls can cause creating of perched water table in the area of moving quench front, therefore in many publications in the field of geotechnics and engineering geology (among others: Crosta 1998; Li et al. 2006; Rahardjo et al. 2007, 2010; Tu et al. 2009) assessment of vulnerability of slope covers to mass movements does not focus only on the strength parameters of the soil, but it also takes infiltration of rainfall into consideration. Because of a recent development of spatial information systems, slope stability evaluation is more often done in relation to large areas, comprising river basins or even regions (Montgomery and Dietrich 1994; Morrissey et al. 2001; Meisina and Scarabelli 2007). One of the generally used in GIS environment phy sical model of water distribution in the soil profile that allows to determine slope stability is SINMAP (Pack et al. 1999). An attempt to do a preliminary assessment of vulnerability of surface slope covers from the area of Nowy Wiśnicz commune to mass movements using SINMAP model was made and presented in the paper, along with the verification of modeling results with actual existing landslides

  15. Assessment of physical vulnerability of buildings and analysis of landslide risk at the municipal scale – application to the Loures municipality, Portugal

    OpenAIRE

    C. Guillard-Gonçalves; Zêzere, J. L.; Pereira, S; Garcia, R. A. C.

    2015-01-01

    This study offers a semi-quantitative assessment of the physical vulnerability of buildings to landslides in the Loures municipality, as well as an analysis of the landslide risk computed as the product of the vulnerability by the economic value of the buildings and by the landslide hazard. The physical vulnerability assessment, which was based on a questionnaire sent to a pool of Portuguese and European researchers, and the assessment of the subjectivity of their answers ar...

  16. Plutonium working group report on environmental, safety and health vulnerabilities associated with the department's plutonium storage. Volume II, part 4: Savannah River Site working group assessment team report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this report is to present the results of a plutonium ES ampersand H vulnerability assessment at the Savannah River Site (SRS). The assessment at SRS is part of a broader plutonium ES ampersand H vulnerability assessment being made by the DOE, encompassing all DOE sites with plutonium holdings. Vulnerabilities across all the sites will be identified and prioritized as a basis for determining the necessity and schedule for taking corrective action

  17. Examination of decision support systems for composite CBA & MCDA assessments of transport infrastructure projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn; Jensen, Anders Vestergaard; Leleur, Steen

    This paper examines decision support systems (DSS) for composite appraisals of transport infrastructure projects comprising both cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). Two DSS are in this context examined and compared using a case study dealing with alternatives for a new...... system is a score for each alternative reflecting its performance in the composite appraisal. The second system examined, the so-called COSIMA approach, provides a framework for adding value functions determined in a MCA to impacts monetarily assessed in a CBA. The system makes use of the same methods as...... composite analysis is achieved. The input for the two DSS examined was generated using the previous mentioned case study. A decision conference was set up where various stakeholders and decision makers under the guidance of a facilitator were producing input in form of their preferences. The purpose of the...

  18. Application of the GEM Inventory Data Capture Tools for Dynamic Vulnerability Assessment and Recovery Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verrucci, Enrica; Bevington, John; Vicini, Alessandro

    2014-05-01

    A set of open-source tools to create building exposure datasets for seismic risk assessment was developed from 2010-13 by the Inventory Data Capture Tools (IDCT) Risk Global Component of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM). The tools were designed to integrate data derived from remotely-sensed imagery, statistically-sampled in-situ field data of buildings to generate per-building and regional exposure data. A number of software tools were created to aid the development of these data, including mobile data capture tools for in-field structural assessment, and the Spatial Inventory Data Developer (SIDD) for creating "mapping schemes" - statistically-inferred distributions of building stock applied to areas of homogeneous urban land use. These tools were made publically available in January 2014. Exemplar implementations in Europe and Central Asia during the IDCT project highlighted several potential application areas beyond the original scope of the project. These are investigated here. We describe and demonstrate how the GEM-IDCT suite can be used extensively within the framework proposed by the EC-FP7 project SENSUM (Framework to integrate Space-based and in-situ sENSing for dynamic vUlnerability and recovery Monitoring). Specifically, applications in the areas of 1) dynamic vulnerability assessment (pre-event), and 2) recovery monitoring and evaluation (post-event) are discussed. Strategies for using the IDC Tools for these purposes are discussed. The results demonstrate the benefits of using advanced technology tools for data capture, especially in a systematic fashion using the taxonomic standards set by GEM. Originally designed for seismic risk assessment, it is clear the IDCT tools have relevance for multi-hazard risk assessment. When combined with a suitable sampling framework and applied to multi-temporal recovery monitoring, data generated from the tools can reveal spatio-temporal patterns in the quality of recovery activities and resilience trends can be

  19. A participatory approach of flood vulnerability assessment in the Banat Plain, Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balteanu, Dan; Costache, Andra; Sima, Mihaela; Dumitrascu, Monica; Dragota, Carmen; Grigorescu, Ines

    2014-05-01

    The Banat Plain (western Romania) is a low, alluvial plain affected by neotectonic subsidence movements, being a critical region in terms of exposure to floods. The latest extreme event was the historic floods occcured in the spring of 2005, which caused significant economic damage in several rural communities. The response to 2005 floods has highlighted a number of weaknesses in the management of hazards, such as the deficiencies of the early warning system, people awareness or the inefficiency of some mitigation measures, besides the past structural measures which are obsolete. For a better understanding of the local context of vulnerability and communities resilience to floods, the quantitative assessment of human vulnerability to floods was supplemented with a participatory research, in which there were involved five rural settlements from the Banat Plain (comprising 15 villages and a population of over 12,000 inhabitants). Thus, in the spring of 2013, a questionnaire-based survey was conducted in approx. 100 households of the affected communities and structured interviews were held with local authorities, in the framework of VULMIN project, funded by the Ministry of National Education. The questionnaire was designed based on a pilot survey conducted in 2005, several months after the flood, and was focused on two major issues: a) perception of the local context of vulnerability to environmental change and extreme events; b) perception of human vulnerability to floods (personal experience, post-disaster rehabilitation, awareness, worrying and opinion on the measures aimed to prevent and mitigate the effects of flooding). The results were correlated with a number of specific variables of the households included in the sample, such as: household structure; income source; income level; location of the dwelling in relation to floodplains. In this way, we were able to draw general conclusions about the way in which local people perceive the extreme events, such as

  20. A metric-based assessment of flood risk and vulnerability of rural communities in the Lower Shire Valley, Malawi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeloye, A. J.; Mwale, F. D.; Dulanya, Z.

    2015-06-01

    In response to the increasing frequency and economic damages of natural disasters globally, disaster risk management has evolved to incorporate risk assessments that are multi-dimensional, integrated and metric-based. This is to support knowledge-based decision making and hence sustainable risk reduction. In Malawi and most of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), however, flood risk studies remain focussed on understanding causation, impacts, perceptions and coping and adaptation measures. Using the IPCC Framework, this study has quantified and profiled risk to flooding of rural, subsistent communities in the Lower Shire Valley, Malawi. Flood risk was obtained by integrating hazard and vulnerability. Flood hazard was characterised in terms of flood depth and inundation area obtained through hydraulic modelling in the valley with Lisflood-FP, while the vulnerability was indexed through analysis of exposure, susceptibility and capacity that were linked to social, economic, environmental and physical perspectives. Data on these were collected through structured interviews of the communities. The implementation of the entire analysis within GIS enabled the visualisation of spatial variability in flood risk in the valley. The results show predominantly medium levels in hazardousness, vulnerability and risk. The vulnerability is dominated by a high to very high susceptibility. Economic and physical capacities tend to be predominantly low but social capacity is significantly high, resulting in overall medium levels of capacity-induced vulnerability. Exposure manifests as medium. The vulnerability and risk showed marginal spatial variability. The paper concludes with recommendations on how these outcomes could inform policy interventions in the Valley.

  1. A network-based framework for assessing infrastructure resilience: a case study of the London metro system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chopra, Shauhrat S; Dillon, Trent; Bilec, Melissa M; Khanna, Vikas

    2016-05-01

    Modern society is increasingly dependent on the stability of a complex system of interdependent infrastructure sectors. It is imperative to build resilience of large-scale infrastructures like metro systems for addressing the threat of natural disasters and man-made attacks in urban areas. Analysis is needed to ensure that these systems are capable of withstanding and containing unexpected perturbations, and develop heuristic strategies for guiding the design of more resilient networks in the future. We present a comprehensive, multi-pronged framework that analyses information on network topology, spatial organization and passenger flow to understand the resilience of the London metro system. Topology of the London metro system is not fault tolerant in terms of maintaining connectivity at the periphery of the network since it does not exhibit small-world properties. The passenger strength distribution follows a power law, suggesting that while the London metro system is robust to random failures, it is vulnerable to disruptions on a few critical stations. The analysis further identifies particular sources of structural and functional vulnerabilities that need to be mitigated for improving the resilience of the London metro network. The insights from our framework provide useful strategies to build resilience for both existing and upcoming metro systems. PMID:27146689

  2. A Health Impact Assessment Framework for Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptation Planning for Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Helen Brown; Jeffery Spickett; Dianne Katscherian

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a detailed description of an approach designed to investigate the application of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework to assess the potential health impacts of climate change. A HIA framework has been combined with key climate change terminology and concepts. The fundamental premise of this framework is an understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and climate. The diversity and complexity of these interactions can hinder much needed action o...

  3. A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Report for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory: May 23, 2014 -- June 5, 2015

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vogel, J. [Abt Environmental Research, Boulder, CO (United States); O' Grady, M. [Abt Environmental Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Renfrow, S. [Abt Environmental Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2015-09-03

    The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in Golden, Colorado, focuses on renewable energy and energy efficiency research. Its portfolio includes advancing renewable energy technologies that can help meet the nation's energy and environmental goals. NREL seeks to better understand the potential effects of climate change on the laboratory--and therefore on its mission--to ensure its ongoing success. Planning today for a changing climate can reduce NREL's risks and improve its resiliency to climate-related vulnerabilities. This report presents a vulnerability assessment for NREL. The assessment was conducted in fall 2014 to identify NREL's climate change vulnerabilities and the aspects of NREL's mission or operations that may be affected by a changing climate.

  4. Livelihood Vulnerability Approach to Assess Climate Change Impacts to Mixed Agro-Livestock Smallholders Around the Gandaki River Basin of Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panthi, J., Sr.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change vulnerability depends upon various factors and differs between places, sectors and communities. People in developing countries whose subsistence livelihood depends upon agriculture and livestock are identified as particularly vulnerable. Nepal, where the majority of people are in a mixed agro-livestock system, is identified as the world's fourth most vulnerable country to climate change. However, there are few studies on how vulnerable mixed agro-livestock smallholders are and how their vulnerability differs across different ecological regions. This study aims to test two vulnerability assessment indices, livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and IPCC vulnerability index (VI-IPCC), around the Gandaki river basin of Nepal. A total of 543 households practicing mixed agro-livestock were surveyed from three districts (Dhading, Syangja and Kapilvastu) representing the mountain, mid-hill and lowland altitudinal belts respectively. Data on socio-demographics, livelihoods, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability were collected. Both indices differed across the three districts, with mixed agro-livestock smallholders of Dhading district found to be the most vulnerable and that of Syangja least vulnerable. This vulnerability index approach may be used to monitor rural vulnerability and/or evaluate potential program/policy effectiveness in poor countries like Nepal. The present findings are intended to help in designing intervention strategies to reduce vulnerability of mixed agro-livestock smallholders and other rural people in developing countries to climate change.

  5. Logistic regression modeling to assess groundwater vulnerability to contamination in Hawaii, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mair, Alan; El-Kadi, Aly I.

    2013-10-01

    Capture zone analysis combined with a subjective susceptibility index is currently used in Hawaii to assess vulnerability to contamination of drinking water sources derived from groundwater. In this study, we developed an alternative objective approach that combines well capture zones with multiple-variable logistic regression (LR) modeling and applied it to the highly-utilized Pearl Harbor and Honolulu aquifers on the island of Oahu, Hawaii. Input for the LR models utilized explanatory variables based on hydrogeology, land use, and well geometry/location. A suite of 11 target contaminants detected in the region, including elevated nitrate (> 1 mg/L), four chlorinated solvents, four agricultural fumigants, and two pesticides, was used to develop the models. We then tested the ability of the new approach to accurately separate groups of wells with low and high vulnerability, and the suitability of nitrate as an indicator of other types of contamination. Our results produced contaminant-specific LR models that accurately identified groups of wells with the lowest/highest reported detections and the lowest/highest nitrate concentrations. Current and former agricultural land uses were identified as significant explanatory variables for eight of the 11 target contaminants, while elevated nitrate was a significant variable for five contaminants. The utility of the combined approach is contingent on the availability of hydrologic and chemical monitoring data for calibrating groundwater and LR models. Application of the approach using a reference site with sufficient data could help identify key variables in areas with similar hydrogeology and land use but limited data. In addition, elevated nitrate may also be a suitable indicator of groundwater contamination in areas with limited data. The objective LR modeling approach developed in this study is flexible enough to address a wide range of contaminants and represents a suitable addition to the current subjective approach.

  6. Runup parameterization and beach vulnerability assessment on a barrier island: a downscaling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Medellín

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available We present a downscaling approach for the study of wave-induced extreme water levels at a location on a barrier island in Yucatan (Mexico. Wave information from a 30 year wave hindcast is validated with in situ measurements at 8 m water depth. The Maximum Dissimilarity Algorithm is employed for the selection of 600 representative cases, encompassing different wave characteristics and tidal level combinations. The selected cases are propagated from 8 m water depth till the shore using the coupling of a third-generation wave model and a phase-resolving non-hydrostatic Nonlinear Shallow Water Equations model. Extreme wave runup, R2%, is estimated for the simulated cases and can be further employed to reconstruct the 30 year period using an interpolation algorithm. Downscaling results show runup saturation during more energetic wave conditions and modulation owing to tides. The latter suggests that the R2% can be parameterized using a hyperbolic-like formulation with dependency on both wave height and tidal level. The new parametric formulation is in agreement with the downscaling results (r2 = 0.78, allowing a fast calculation of wave-induced extreme water levels at this location. Finally, an assessment of beach vulnerability to wave-induced extreme water level is conducted at the study area by employing the two approaches (reconstruction/parametrization and a storm impact scale. The 30 year extreme water level hindcast allows the calculation of beach vulnerability as a function of return periods. It is shown that the downscaling-derived parameterization provides reasonable results as compared with the numerical approach. This methodology can be extended to other locations and can be further improved by incorporating the storm surge contributions to the extreme water level.

  7. Assessment of agricultural drought vulnerability in the Philippines using remote sensing and GIS-based techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drought is a recurrent extreme climate event that can cause crop damage and yield loss, thereby inflicting negative socioeconomic impacts all over the world. According to several climate studies, drought events may be more frequent and more severe as global warming progresses. As an agricultural country, the Philippines is highly susceptible to adverse impacts of drought using remotely sensed information and geographic processing techniques. An agricultural drought vulnerability map identifying croplands that are least vulnerable, moderately vulnerable, and most vulnerable to crop water-related stress, was developed. Vulnerability factors, including land use system, irrigation support. Available soil-water holding capacity, as well as satellite-derived evapotranspiration and rainfall, were taken into consideration in classifying and mapping agricultural drought vulnerability at a national level. (author)

  8. Physical and institutional vulnerability assessment method applied in Alpine communities. Preliminary Results of the SAMCO-ANR Project in the Guil Valley (French Southern Alps)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlier, Benoit; Dujarric, Constance; Puissant, Anne; Lissak, Candide; Viel, Vincent; Bétard, François; Madelin, Malika; Fort, Monique; Arnaud-Fassetta, Gilles

    2015-04-01

    The Guil catchment is particularly prone to torrential and gravitational hazards such as floods, debris flows, landslides or avalanches due to several predisposing factors (bedrock supplying abundant debris, strong hillslope-channel connectivity) in a context of summer Mediterranean rainstorms as triggers. These hazards severely impact the local population (fatalities, destruction of buildings and infrastructures, loss of agricultural land, road closures). Since the second half of the 20th century, the progressive decline of agro-pastoralism and the development of tourism activities led to a concentration of human stakes on alluvial cones and valley bottom, therefore an increase of vulnerability for mountainous communities. Following the 1957 and 2000 catastrophic floods and the 1948 and 2008 avalanche episodes, some measures were taken to reduce exposure to risks (engineering works, standards of construction, rescue training…). Nevertheless, in front of urban expansion (land pressures and political pressures) and obsolescence of the existing protective measures, it is essential to reassess the vulnerability of the stakes exposed to hazards. Vulnerability analysis is, together with hazard evaluation, one of the major steps of risk assessment. In the frame of the SAMCO project designed for mountain risk assessment, our goal is to estimate specific form of vulnerability for communities living in the Upper Guil catchment in order to provide useful documentation for a better management of the valley bottom and the implementation of adequate mitigation measures. Here we present preliminary results on three municipalities of the upper Guil catchment: Aiguilles, Abriès, and Ristolas. We propose an empirical semi-quantitative indicator of potential hazards consequences on element at risk (based on GIS) with an application to different (local and regional scale) scales. This indicator, called Potential Damage Index, enable us to describe, quantify, and visualize direct

  9. Assessing and mapping people's perceptions of vulnerability to landslides in Bududa, Uganda

    OpenAIRE

    Wanasolo, Isaac

    2012-01-01

    This study explores people’s vulnerability to landslides in Bududa, Uganda and how people perceive their vulnerability to such disasters in the face of a blatant government declaration that the area is risk prone and unsafe for human settlement. The study then explores GIS capabilities to map such perceptions and how ensuing maps can be used to communicate people’s perceptions of vulnerability to landslides. Specifically examined are people’s perceived causes of landslides, how people interpr...

  10. Assessing water resource system vulnerability to unprecedented hydrological drought using copulas to characterize drought duration and deficit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borgomeo, Edoardo; Pflug, Georg; Hall, Jim W.; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan

    2015-11-01

    Global climate models suggest an increase in evapotranspiration, changing storm tracks, and moisture delivery in many parts of the world, which are likely to cause more prolonged and severe drought, yet the weakness of climate models in modeling persistence of hydroclimatic variables and the uncertainties associated with regional climate projections mean that impact assessments based on climate model output may underestimate the risk of multiyear droughts. In this paper, we propose a vulnerability-based approach to test water resource system response to drought. We generate a large number of synthetic streamflow series with different drought durations and deficits and use them as input to a water resource system model. Marginal distributions of the streamflow for each month are generated by bootstrapping the historical data, while the joint probability distributions of consecutive months are constructed using a copula-based method. Droughts with longer durations and larger deficits than the observed record are generated by perturbing the copula parameter and by adopting an importance sampling strategy for low flows. In this way, potential climate-induced changes in monthly hydrological persistence are factored into the vulnerability analysis. The method is applied to the London water system (England) to investigate under which drought conditions severe water use restrictions would need to be imposed. Results indicate that the water system is vulnerable to drought conditions outside the range of historical events. The vulnerability assessment results were coupled with climate model information to compare alternative water management options with respect to their vulnerability to increasingly long and severe drought.

  11. Vulnerability Assessment of Participants in Lithuanian Criminal Proceedings in the Context of EU Regulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ažubalytė Rima

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Despite the applicable general principles and essential standards provided for in the law, the right of vulnerable persons (i.e. children under 18 years of age and vulnerable adults, for example, adults with mental disabilities to a fair hearing at different stages of criminal proceedings in the EU is not yet ensured to the full extent. Based on both EU and Lithuanian legal regulation, this article will review only the principal provisions concerning the allocation of victims, suspects, and accused persons to the category of “vulnerable persons”. Due to the scope of the article, the vulnerability identification procedure falls outside this research.

  12. Environmental screening tools for assessment of infrastructure plans based on biodiversity preservation and global warming (PEIT, Spain)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Most Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) research has been concerned with SEA as a procedure, and there have been relatively few developments and tests of analytical methodologies. The first stage of the SEA is the 'screening', which is the process whereby a decision is taken on whether or not SEA is required for a particular programme or plan. The effectiveness of screening and SEA procedures will depend on how well the assessment fits into the planning from the early stages of the decision-making process. However, it is difficult to prepare the environmental screening for an infrastructure plan involving a whole country. To be useful, such methodologies must be fast and simple. We have developed two screening tools which would make it possible to estimate promptly the overall impact an infrastructure plan might have on biodiversity and global warming for a whole country, in order to generate planning alternatives, and to determine whether or not SEA is required for a particular infrastructure plan.

  13. Assessment of impacts on ground water resources in Libya and vulnerability to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. P. Bindra

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper is designed to present the likely impact of climate change on groundwater resources in general and Libya in particular. State of the art reviews on recent research studies, and methodology to assess the impact of climate change on groundwater resources shows that climate change poses uncertainties to the supply and management of water resources. It outlines to demonstrate that how climate change impact assessment plays a vital role in forming the sensitive water balance rarely achieved in most area owing to precipitation variability’s and seasonality. It demonstrates that how large increases in water demand with very little recharge from precipitation have strained Libya’s groundwater resources resulting in declines of groundwater levels and its quality, especially on Libyan coastal areas where most of the agriculture, domestic and industrial activities are concentrated. Based on several research studies it demonstrates that how policy and decision making process using best practices for monitoring, analyzing and forecasting variation of climate is a way forward to cope with the impact of sea level rise, and combat some water supplies in vulnerable areas that are becoming unusable due to the penetration of salt water into coastal aquifers (Jifara Plain, Sirt, Jebal El-Akhdar.Finally, a number of Global Climate Models (GCM are reviewed to demonstrate that how better understanding of climate and climate change forecasting helps in devising appropriate adaptation strategies due to the impact of climate change.

  14. Probabilistic exposure risk assessment with advective-dispersive well vulnerability criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzenhoefer, Rainer; Nowak, Wolfgang; Helmig, Rainer

    2012-02-01

    Time-related advection-based well-head protection zones are commonly used to manage the contamination risk of drinking water wells. According to current water safety plans advanced risk management schemes are needed to better control and monitor all possible hazards within catchments. The goal of this work is to cast the four advective-dispersive intrinsic well vulnerability criteria by Frind et al. [1] into a framework of probabilistic risk assessment framework. These criteria are: (i) arrival time, (ii) level of peak concentration, (iii) time until first arrival of critical concentrations and (iv) exposure time. Our probabilistic framework yields catchment-wide maps of probabilities to not comply with these criteria. This provides indispensable information for catchment managers to perform probabilistic exposure risk assessment and thus improves the basis for risk-informed well-head management. We resolve heterogeneity with high-resolution Monte Carlo simulations and use a new reverse formulation of temporal moment transport equations to keep computational costs low. Our method is independent of dimensionality and boundary conditions, and can account for arbitrary sources of uncertainty. It can be coupled with any method for conditioning on available data. For simplicity, we demonstrate the concept on a 2D example that includes conditioning on synthetic data.

  15. Integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change and adaptation options in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In recent decades, it has become increasingly clear that the global climate is becoming warmer and that regional climates are changing. This report summarizes the results of an integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change and adaptation options in the Netherlands carried out between July 2000 and July 2001 within the framework of the Dutch National Research Program on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP-2). The project's main aims were: - to provide an overview of scientific insights, expert judgements and stakeholders' perceptions of current and future impacts (positive and negative) of climate change for several economic sectors, human health, and natural systems in the Netherlands, considering various cross-sectoral interactions, - to develop a set of adaptation options for these sectors through a participatory process with the main stakeholders, - to perform an integrated assessment of cross-sectoral interactions of climate change impacts and adaptation options. Climate change impacts and adaptation options have been investigated for several important economic sectors (including agriculture, forestry, fisheries, industry, energy, transport, insurance and recreation and tourism), human health and natural systems (including soils, water and biodiversity issues).The results of this study are based on literature survey, a dialogue with experts and stakeholders. We are convinced that the report represents the most essential and relevant aspects of the impacts and adaptation options for climate change in the Netherlands, given the scenario setting of this study, the state of the art of current scientific knowledge, and today's expert and stakeholders' perceptions of the issues at stake. 215 refs

  16. A Vulnerability Assessment of the U.S. Small Business B2C E-Commerce Network Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jensen J.; Truell, Allen D.; Alexander, Melody W.; Woosley, Sherry A.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: This study assessed the security vulnerability of the U.S. small companies' business-to-consumer (B2C) e-commerce network systems. Background: As the Internet technologies have been changing the way business is conducted, the U.S. small businesses are investing in such technologies and taking advantage of e-commerce to access global…

  17. A methodology for risk assessment of municipal infrastructure due to climate change: a case study of London, Ontario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowering, E.; Peck, A.; Simonovic, S.

    2009-12-01

    Natural hazards are increasing in severity as a consequence of climate change. These hazards affect all aspects of municipal infrastructure. Thus a region must adapt its policies and procedures to mitigate the increasing risk to its infrastructure. The purpose of this study is to develop and test a methodology for engineering assessment of risk to municipal infrastructure due to climate change. Proposed methodology includes climate, hydrologic and hydraulic modeling as input for engineering risk assessment. Climate analysis uses Weather Generator as a tool to combine Global Circulation Models (GCMs) with regional historical data to output plausible climate scenarios. The present study focuses on flooding and temperature extremes which are relevant to the region under consideration. Hydrologic analysis uses the climate scenarios as input to the HEC-HMS model to determine streamflows. These streamflows are input to the HEC-RAS and GeoHEC-RAS as part of the hydraulic analysis to generate floodplain maps in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) environment. The engineering risk assessment comprises of both quantitative and qualitative analyses. Water elevations and municipal infrastructure maps are combined using GIS to determine flood inundation levels. These loads are used in combination with infrastructure capacities to evaluate quantitative risk indices. Fuzzy set theory is used to address uncertainties associated with subjective criteria in qualitative analysis. This is accomplished by using membership functions to model ambiguity in various impact data interpretation. These membership functions are created through interviews held with experts in the fields of transportation, water supply and distribution, wastewater management and critical infrastructure management. Membership functions are used in qualitative fuzzy risk assessment. Quantitative and qualitative analysis are combined into risk indices which are spatially represented in GIS as risk maps for each

  18. A Health Impact Assessment Framework for Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptation Planning for Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen Brown

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a detailed description of an approach designed to investigate the application of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA framework to assess the potential health impacts of climate change. A HIA framework has been combined with key climate change terminology and concepts. The fundamental premise of this framework is an understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and climate. The diversity and complexity of these interactions can hinder much needed action on the critical health issue of climate change. The objectives of the framework are to improve the methodology for understanding and assessing the risks associated with potential health impacts of climate change, and to provide decision-makers with information that can facilitate the development of effective adaptation plans. While the process presented here provides guidance with respect to this task it is not intended to be prescriptive. As such, aspects of the process can be amended to suit the scope and available resources of each project. A series of working tables has been developed to assist in the collation of evidence throughout the process. The framework has been tested in a number of locations including Western Australia, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Nauru.

  19. Valuation of Risks And Vulnerabilities in the Oilfield Exploratiory Infrastructure Canto do Amaro, Municipality of Mossoró, State of Rio Grande Do Norte, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Costa Filho

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The work in the oilfield Canto do Amaro aimed to evaluate the risks and vulnerabilities of the oil exploration structures. For this, was made a detailed field work, and the majority of the exploratory wells was visited. Were collected seven soil samples for the oil infiltration risk analysis, and for which one were determined the values of DTA that for 57% of the soils is above the average of 1.41 mm/cm, presenting a franc-sand texture and sand-franc for the remaining 43%, whose DTA were smaller than 0.86 mm/cm. The tests of water/oil infiltration in these soils showed that the water VIB was high to very high and for oil was low to medium. The analysis of VIB showed that the soil with a higher risk to the oil spill are the Latossolos Vermelho Amarillo (AVL and of lowest risk are Neossolos Flúvicos (UK. Questionnaires were applied to 10% of families of the community to characterize the environmental and socioeconomic profile of the local population. The region is subject to intense human activities pressure as result of the oil and salt exploration and agriculture activities. The analyses of the diagnoses showed that the global vulnerability of the population is around 66%, index too high that show its high level of poverty. The vulnerability its caused by the fault of publics politics for development maintainable environmental, that’s seeks to the decrease of the risks, with social inclusion and environmental protection.

  20. Assessing Gender Vulnerability within Post-earthquake Reconstruction: Case Study from Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Yumarni, Tri; Amaratunga, Dilanthi; Haigh, Richard

    2014-01-01

    Understanding types of gender vulnerability and its determinants within disaster management context is useful to protect women and men from greater destabilization, to achieve better process of disaster management, to enhance sustainability of reconstruction and to build community resilience. Using mixed method combining qualitative and quantitative data analysis, this study reveals various dimensions of gender vulnerability within post-earthquake reconstruction at Yogyakarta provinc...

  1. Update on the Department of Energy's 1994 plutonium vulnerability assessment for the plutonium finishing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A review of the environmental, safety, and health vulnerabilities associated with the continued storage of PFP's inventory of plutonium bearing materials and other SNM. This report re-evaluates the five vulnerabilities identified in 1994 at the PFP that are associated with SNM storage. This new evaluation took a more detailed look and applied a risk ranking process to help focus remediation efforts

  2. Vulnerability assessment of small islands to tourism: The case of the Marine Tourism Park of the Gili Matra Islands, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fery Kurniawan

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Indonesian government is currently directing its focus of development on the optimum uses of marine and coastal ecosystem services including the marine and coastal tourism. One of the main locus of coastal and marine tourism is the small islands tourism such as Gili Matra Islands among others. Small islands tourism is one of the favourite touristic activities because the destination provides beauty, exotism, aesthetic and a diversity of natural habitats including the warm, clear and attractive water. Tourism is being considered as a development instrument in order to boost a country’s economy and has become part of the global industry. However, tourism is also one of the actors that is responsible for environmental depletion, due to the constructions of buildings and tourism activities. This paper aims to study the level of vulnerability in small islands to tourism as a basis of integrated small islands management in Indonesian conservation area. The group of islands in this study consists of three islands namely Gili Ayer Island, Gili Meno Island and Gili Trawangan Island (known as Gili Matra Islands that were observed using Small Islands Vulnerability Index (SIVI. The results indicate that Gili Matra Islands have a vulnerability status from low into moderate, ranging from 2.25 to 2.75. Gili Ayer Island has the highest vulnerability with SIVI of 2.75 (Moderate, followed by Gili Meno Island with SIVI of 2.50 (Low and Gili Trawangan Island with SIVI of 2.25 (Low. The driving factor of vulnerability is the intensive utilization of marine tourism activities. Tourism is the sole stress to Gili Matra Island’s ecosystem due to its direct damaging impact and reducing its environmental quality. The vulnerability index which was built from the coastline, coral reef, live coral reef, and development area was applicable to assess the small island’s vulnerability in Indonesia, especially for coral island.

  3. Groundwater vulnerability assessment for the karst aquifer of Tanour and Rasoun spring using EPIK, COP, and travel time methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdan, Ibraheem; Sauter, Martin; Margane, Armin; Ptak, Thomas; Wiegand, Bettina

    2016-04-01

    Key words: Karst, groundwater vulnerability, EPIK, COP, travel time, Jordan. Karst aquifers are especially sensitive to short-lived contaminants because of fast water travel times and a low storage capacity in the conduit system. Tanour and Rasoun karst springs located around 75 km northwest of the city of Amman in Jordan represent the main domestic water supply for the surrounding villages. Both springs suffer from pollution events especially during the winter season, either by microbiological contamination due to wastewater leakage from septic tanks or by wastewater discharge from local olive oil presses. To assess the vulnerability of the karst aquifer of Tanour and Rasoun spring and its sensitivity for pollution, two different intrinsic groundwater vulnerability methods were applied: EPIK and COP. In addition, a travel time vulnerability method was applied to determine the time water travels from different points in the catchment to the streams, as a function of land surface gradients and presumed lateral flow within the epikarst. For the application of the COP and EPIK, a detailed geological survey was carried out to determine karst features and the karst network development within the catchment area. In addition, parameters, such as soil data, long term daily precipitation data, land use and topographical data were collected. For the application of the travel time vulnerability method, flow length, hydraulic conductivity, effective porosity, and slope gradient was used in order to determining the travel time in days. ArcGIS software was used for map preparation. The results of the combined vulnerability methods (COP, EPIK and travel time) show a high percentage of "very high" to "moderate" vulnerable areas within the catchment area of Tanour and Rasoun karst springs. Therefore, protection of the catchment area of Tanour and Rasoun springs from pollution and proper management of land use types is urgently needed to maintain the quality of drinking water in the

  4. Vulnerability assessment in a participatory approach to design and implement community based adaptation to drought in the Peruvian Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasage, Ralph; Muis, Sanne; Sardella, Carolina; van Drunen, Michiel; Verburg, Peter; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    The livelihoods of people in the Andes are expected to be affected by climate change due to their dependence on glacier meltwater during the growing season. The observed decrease in glacier volume over the last few decades is likely to accelerate during the current century, which will affect water availability in the region. This paper presents the implementation of an approach for the participatory development of community-based adaptation measures to cope with the projected impacts of climate change, which was implemented jointly by the local community and by a team consisting of an NGO, Peruvian ministry of environment, research organisations and a private sector organisation. It bases participatory design on physical measurements, modelling and a vulnerability analysis. Vulnerability to drought is made operational for households in a catchment of the Ocoña river basin in Peru. On the basis of a household survey we explore how a vulnerability index (impacts divided by the households' perceived adaptive capacity) can be used to assess the distribution of vulnerability over households in a sub catchment. The socio-economic factors water entitlement, area of irrigated land, income and education are all significantly correlate with this vulnerability to drought. The index proved to be appropriate for communicating about vulnerability to climate change and its determining factors with different stakeholders. The water system research showed that the main source of spring water is local rainwater, and that water use efficiency in farming is low. The adaptation measures that were jointly selected by the communities and the project team aimed to increase water availability close to farmland, and increase water use efficiency, and these will help to reduce the communities vulnerability to drought.

  5. Assessing the Available ICT Infrastructure for Collaborative Web Technologies in a Blended Learning Environment in Tanzania: A Mixed Methods Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pima, John Marco; Odetayo, Michael; Iqbal, Rahat; Sedoyeka, Eliamani

    2016-01-01

    This paper is about the use of a Mixed Methods approach in an investigation that sought to assess the available Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) infrastructure capable of supporting Collaborative Web Technologies (CWTs) in a Blended Learning (BL) environment in Tanzanian Higher Education Institutions (HEIs). We first used…

  6. A Multi-area Model of a Physical Protection System for a Vulnerability Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A physical protection system (PPS) integrates people, procedures and equipment for the protection of assets or facilities against theft, sabotage or other malevolent human attacks. Among critical facilities, nuclear facilities and nuclear weapon sites require the highest level of PPS. After the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, international communities, including the IAEA, have made substantial efforts to protect nuclear material and nuclear facilities. These efforts include the Nuclear Security Fund established by the IAEA in 2002 and the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism which is launched by the USA and Russia in 2006. Without a regular assessment, the PPS might waste valuable resources on unnecessary protection or, worse yet, fail to provide adequate protection at critical points of a facility. Due to the complexity of protection systems, the assessment usually requires computer modeling techniques. Several Codes were developed to model and analyze a PPS. We also devised and implemented new analysis method and named it as Systematic Analysis of physical Protection Effectiveness (SAPE). A SAPE code consumes much time to analyze a PPS over a large area in detail. It is because SAPE uses meshes of an equal size for the analysis of a 2D map. The analysis is more accurate when the meshes of a smaller size are used. However, the analysis time is roughly proportional to the exponential of the number of meshes. Thus, the speed and accuracy is in a trade-off relation. In the paper, we suggest a multi-area model of a PPS for a vulnerability assessment to solve this problem. Using multi areas with different scales, we can accurately analyze a PPS near a target and can analyze it over a large area rather roughly

  7. Assessing social capacity and vulnerability of private households to natural hazards – integrating psychological and governance factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Werg

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available People are unequally affected by extreme weather events in terms of mortality, morbidity and financial losses; this is the case not only for developing, but also for industrialized countries. Previous research has established indicators for identifying who is particularly vulnerable and why, focusing on socio-demographic factors such as income, age, gender, health and minority status. However, these factors can only partly explain the large disparities in the extent to which people are affected by natural hazards. Moreover, these factors are usually not alterable in the short to medium term, which limits their usefulness for strategies of reducing social vulnerability and building social capacity. Based on a literature review and an expert survey, we propose an approach for refining assessments of social vulnerability and building social capacity by integrating psychological and governance factors.

  8. Assessment of groundwater vulnerability to nitrates from agricultural sources using a GIS-compatible logic multicriteria model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebolledo, Boris; Gil, Antonia; Flotats, Xavier; Sánchez, José Ángel

    2016-04-15

    In the present study an overlay method to assess groundwater vulnerability is proposed. This new method based on multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) was developed and validated using an appropriate case study in Aragon area (NE Spain). The Vulnerability Index to Nitrates from Agricultural Sources (VINAS) incorporates a novel Logic Scoring of Preferences (LSP) approach, and it has been developed using public geographic information from the European Union. VINAS-LSP identifies areas with five categories of vulnerability, taking into account the hydrogeological and environmental characteristics of the territory as a whole. The resulting LSP map is a regional screening tool that can provide guidance on the potential risk of nitrate pollution, as well as highlight areas where specific research and farming planning policies are required. PMID:26874616

  9. Assessing the vulnerability of Brazilian municipalities to the vectorial transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi using multi-criteria decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinhaes, Márcio Costa; de Oliveira, Stefan Vilges; Reis, Priscilleyne Ouverney; de Lacerda Sousa, Ana Carolina; Silva, Rafaella Albuquerque E; Obara, Marcos Takashi; Bezerra, Cláudia Mendonça; da Costa, Veruska Maia; Alves, Renato Vieira; Gurgel-Gonçalves, Rodrigo

    2014-09-01

    Despite the dramatic reduction in Trypanosoma cruzi vectorial transmission in Brazil, acute cases of Chagas disease (CD) continue to be recorded. The identification of areas with greater vulnerability to the occurrence of vector-borne CD is essential to prevention, control, and surveillance activities. In the current study, data on the occurrence of domiciliated triatomines in Brazil (non-Amazonian regions) between 2007 and 2011 were analyzed. Municipalities' vulnerability was assessed based on socioeconomic, demographic, entomological, and environmental indicators using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). Overall, 2275 municipalities were positive for at least one of the six triatomine species analyzed (Panstrongylus megistus, Triatoma infestans, Triatoma brasiliensis, Triatoma pseudomaculata, Triatoma rubrovaria, and Triatoma sordida). The municipalities that were most vulnerable to vector-borne CD were mainly in the northeast region and exhibited a higher occurrence of domiciliated triatomines, lower socioeconomic levels, and more extensive anthropized areas. Most of the 39 new vector-borne CD cases confirmed between 2001 and 2012 in non-Amazonian regions occurred within the more vulnerable municipalities. Thus, MCDA can help to identify the states and municipalities that are most vulnerable to the transmission of T. cruzi by domiciliated triatomines, which is critical for directing adequate surveillance, prevention, and control activities. The methodological approach and results presented here can be used to enhance CD surveillance in Brazil. PMID:24857942

  10. Assessment of urban vulnerability towards floods using an indicator-based approach – a case study for Santiago de Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Müller

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Regularly occurring flood events do have a history in Santiago de Chile, the capital city of Chile and study area for this research. The analysis of flood events, the resulting damage and its causes are crucial prerequisites for the development of risk prevention measures. The goal of this research is to empirically investigate the vulnerability towards floods in Santiago de Chile as one component of flood risk. The analysis and assessment of vulnerability is based on the application of a multi-scale (individual, household, municipal level set of indicators and the use of a broad range of data. The case-specific set of indicators developed in this study shows the relevant variables and their interrelations influencing the flood vulnerability in the study area. It provides a decision support tool for stakeholders and allows for monitoring and evaluating changes over time. The paper outlines how GIS, census, and remote sensing data as well as household surveys and expert interviews are used as an information base for the derivation of a vulnerability map for two municipalities located in the eastern part of Santiago de Chile. The generation of vulnerability maps representing the two different perspectives of local decision makers (experts and affected households is exemplified and discussed using the developed methodology.

  11. National Water Infrastructure Adaptation Assessment, Part I: Climate Change Adaptation Readiness Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    The report “National Water Infrastructure Adaptation Assessment” is comprised of four parts (Part I to IV), each in an independent volume. The Part I report presented herein describes a preliminary regulatory and technical analysis of water infrastructure and regulations in the ...

  12. Aquifer Vulnerability Assessment Based on Sequence Stratigraphic and (39) Ar Transport Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonnenborg, Torben O; Scharling, Peter B; Hinsby, Klaus; Rasmussen, Erik S; Engesgaard, Peter

    2016-03-01

    A large-scale groundwater flow and transport model is developed for a deep-seated (100 to 300 m below ground surface) sedimentary aquifer system. The model is based on a three-dimensional (3D) hydrostratigraphic model, building on a sequence stratigraphic approach. The flow model is calibrated against observations of hydraulic head and stream discharge while the credibility of the transport model is evaluated against measurements of (39) Ar from deep wells using alternative parameterizations of dispersivity and effective porosity. The directly simulated 3D mean age distributions and vertical fluxes are used to visualize the two-dimensional (2D)/3D age and flux distribution along transects and at the top plane of individual aquifers. The simulation results are used to assess the vulnerability of the aquifer system that generally has been assumed to be protected by thick overlaying clayey units and therefore proposed as future reservoirs for drinking water supply. The results indicate that on a regional scale these deep-seated aquifers are not as protected from modern surface water contamination as expected because significant leakage to the deeper aquifers occurs. The complex distribution of local and intermediate groundwater flow systems controlled by the distribution of the river network as well as the topographical variation (Tóth 1963) provides the possibility for modern water to be found in even the deepest aquifers. PMID:26018029

  13. Data driven approaches vs. qualitative approaches in climate change impact and vulnerability assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zebisch, Marc; Schneiderbauer, Stefan; Petitta, Marcello

    2015-04-01

    In the last decade the scope of climate change science has broadened significantly. 15 years ago the focus was mainly on understanding climate change, providing climate change scenarios and giving ideas about potential climate change impacts. Today, adaptation to climate change has become an increasingly important field of politics and one role of science is to inform and consult this process. Therefore, climate change science is not anymore focusing on data driven approaches only (such as climate or climate impact models) but is progressively applying and relying on qualitative approaches including opinion and expertise acquired through interactive processes with local stakeholders and decision maker. Furthermore, climate change science is facing the challenge of normative questions, such us 'how important is a decrease of yield in a developed country where agriculture only represents 3% of the GDP and the supply with agricultural products is strongly linked to global markets and less depending on local production?'. In this talk we will present examples from various applied research and consultancy projects on climate change vulnerabilities including data driven methods (e.g. remote sensing and modelling) to semi-quantitative and qualitative assessment approaches. Furthermore, we will discuss bottlenecks, pitfalls and opportunities in transferring climate change science to policy and decision maker oriented climate services.

  14. Coastal vulnerability assessment: a case study of Samut Sakhon coastal zone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farida Duriyapong

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The Samut Sakhon coastal zone (~41.8 km, which was selected as a study area due to its low-lying topography, hasbeen increasingly impacted by climate change and erosion processes affecting the local community. This study examined thevulnerability area in this region by combining a physical process vulnerability index (PVI and a socio-economic vulnerabilityindex (SVI. Four physical variables (coastal slope, coastal erosion rate, mean tidal range, and mean wave height and foursocio-economic variables (land use, population density, cultural heritage, and roads/railways were employed. The result wasa single vulnerability indicator of a coastal vulnerability index (CVI showing that the high vulnerability area, covering anarea of 1.3 km2 (0.45% of total study area, was located in Ban Bo, Ka Long, Bangyaprak, Bangkrajao, Khok Kham, Na Kok,and Puntainorasing. The moderate vulnerability area covered an area of 28 km2 (9.5% of total study area, the low vulnerabilityarea 180 km2 (60.56% of total study area, and the very low vulnerability area 88 km2 (29.52% of total study area.The CVI map indicated that it was highly differentiated and influenced by socio-economic indicators, rather than physicalindicators. However, comparison between the different results of the PVI and SVI can contribute to understanding the variabilityand constraints of vulnerability. The results of this investigation showed that the study area was more correlated withaspects related to socio-economic characteristics than physical parameters.

  15. Assessing the vulnerability of women to sexually transmitted diseases STDS/ HIV: construction and validation of markers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mónica Cecilia De la Torre Ugarte Guanilo

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective To construct and validate markers of vulnerability of women to STDs/HIV, taking into consideration the importance of STDs/HIV. Method Methodological study carried out in three stages: 1 systematic review and identification of elements of vulnerability in the scientific production; 2 selection of elements of vulnerability, and development of markers; 3 establishment of the expert group and validation of the markers (content validity. Results Five markers were validated: no openness in the relationship to discuss aspects related to prevention of STDs/HIV; no perception of vulnerability to STDs/HIV; disregard of vulnerability to STDs/ HIV; not recognizing herself as the subject of sexual and reproductive rights; actions of health professionals that limit women’s access to prevention of STDs/HIV. Each marker contains three to eleven components. Conclusion The construction of such markers constituted an instrument, presented in another publication, which can contribute to support the identification of vulnerabilities of women in relation to STDs/HIV in the context of primary health care services. The markers constitute an important tool for the operationalization of the concept of vulnerability in primary health care and to promote inter/multidisciplinary and inter/multi-sectoral work processes.

  16. Population vulnerability to storm surge flooding in coastal Virginia, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hua; Behr, Joshua G; Diaz, Rafael

    2016-07-01

    This study aims to assess the vulnerability of populations to storm surge flooding in 12 coastal localities of Virginia, USA. Population vulnerability is assessed by way of 3 physical factors (elevation, slope, and storm surge category), 3 built-up components (road availability, access to hospitals, and access to shelters), and 3 household conditions (storm preparedness, financial constraints to recovering from severe weather events, and health fragility). Fuzzy analysis is used to generate maps illustrating variation in several types of population vulnerability across the region. When considering physical factors and household conditions, the most vulnerable neighborhoods to sea level rise and storm surge flooding are largely found in urban areas. However, when considering access to critical infrastructure, we find rural residents to be more vulnerable than nonrural residents. These detailed assessments can inform both local and state governments in catastrophic planning. In addition, the methodology may be generalized to assess vulnerability in other coastal corridors and communities. The originality is highlighted by evaluating socioeconomic conditions at refined scale, incorporating a broader range of human perceptions and predispositions, and employing a geoinformatics approach combining physical, built-up, and socioeconomic conditions for population vulnerability assessment. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:500-509. © 2015 SETAC. PMID:26295749

  17. Vulnerable bodies, vulnerable systems

    OpenAIRE

    Philippopoulos-Mihalopoulos, Andreas; Webb, Tom

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we examine the concept of vulnerability as it relates to the materiality of systems, the exclusion of human physical corporeality, and social exclusion in Luhmann’s theory of social autopoiesis. We ask whether a concept of vulnerability can be included in autopoiesis in order to better conceptualise social exclusion and the excluded, with a view to understanding how, if at all, the dangers posed by this exclusion are mitigated by autopoietic processes. We are emphatically not re...

  18. Vulnerability assessment to flux amplification in river basins: a dynamic network approach and impact decomposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czuba, J. A.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

    2013-12-01

    Long-term prediction of basin environmental response becomes highly uncertain using physically-based distributed models, particularly for the sedimentological response for sand and gravel, with time scales ranging from tens to thousands of years. Yet, such predictions are needed as changes in one part of a basin now might adversely affect other parts of the basin in many years to come. In this work we propose a simplified prediction framework which takes advantage of network topology, channel characteristics, and transport-process dynamics to perform a process-based scaling of the network width function to a time-response function (travel-time distribution). The framework is generalized in a way that can account for the transport dynamics of different fluxes (i.e., streamflow, sediment, nutrients, biological material, etc.) through a dynamically connected network of pathways representing various geomorphic states (i.e., hillslope, fluvial, pond/wetland, subsurface, pipe, etc.). The framework explores how river fluxes are structured by time delays on a dynamically connected network, and offers the possibility to identify hot spots or vulnerable areas/times of disturbance that can lead to synchronization and downstream amplification of the flux. We have developed the process-scaling formulation for transport of mud, sand, and gravel and applied the methodology to the Minnesota River Basin. We have identified two peaks in the sedimentological response (sedimentograph) for sand which we have attributed to specific areas of the basin and suggest that there is a resonant frequency of sediment supply where the disturbance of one area followed by the disturbance of another area after a certain period of time, results in amplification of the effects of sediment inputs which would be otherwise difficult to predict. Thus, identifying an important vulnerability of the Minnesota River Basin to spatial and temporal structuring of sediment inputs, aids in understanding how

  19. Risk Assessment and Optimisation of Blast Mitigation Strategies for Design and Strengthening of Built Infrastructure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    STEWART Mark G

    2006-01-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment procedure is developed which can predict risks of explosive blast damage to built infrastructure,and when combined with life-cycle cost analysis,the procedure can be used to optimise blastmitigation strategies.The paper focuses on window glazing since this is a load-capacity system which,when subjected to blast loading,has caused significant damage and injury to building occupants.Structural reliability techniques are used to derive blast reliability curves for annealed and toughened glazing subjected to explosive blast for a variety of threat scenarios.The probabilistic analyses include the uncertainties associated with blast modelling,glazing response and glazing failure criteria.Damage risks are calculated for an individual window and for windows in the facade of a multi-storey commercial building.The paper shows an illustrative exampie of how this information,when combined with risk-based decision-making criteria,can be used to optimise blast mitigation strategies.

  20. Real-time threat assessment for critical infrastructure protection: data incest and conflict in evidential reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandon, R.; Page, S.; Varndell, J.

    2012-06-01

    This paper presents a novel application of Evidential Reasoning to Threat Assessment for critical infrastructure protection. A fusion algorithm based on the PCR5 Dezert-Smarandache fusion rule is proposed which fuses alerts generated by a vision-based behaviour analysis algorithm and a-priori watch-list intelligence data. The fusion algorithm produces a prioritised event list according to a user-defined set of event-type severity or priority weightings. Results generated from application of the algorithm to real data and Behaviour Analysis alerts captured at London's Heathrow Airport under the EU FP7 SAMURAI programme are presented. A web-based demonstrator system is also described which implements the fusion process in real-time. It is shown that this system significantly reduces the data deluge problem, and directs the user's attention to the most pertinent alerts, enhancing their Situational Awareness (SA). The end-user is also able to alter the perceived importance of different event types in real-time, allowing the system to adapt rapidly to changes in priorities as the situation evolves. One of the key challenges associated with fusing information deriving from intelligence data is the issue of Data Incest. Techniques for handling Data Incest within Evidential Reasoning frameworks are proposed, and comparisons are drawn with respect to Data Incest management techniques that are commonly employed within Bayesian fusion frameworks (e.g. Covariance Intersection). The challenges associated with simultaneously dealing with conflicting information and Data Incest in Evidential Reasoning frameworks are also discussed.

  1. Coastal vulnerability assessment of Puducherry coast, India, using the analytical hierarchical process

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    ManiMurali, R.; Ankita, M.; Amrita, S.; Vethamony, P.

    Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 3291–3311, 2013 www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/13/3291/2013/ doi:10.5194/nhess-13-3291-2013 © Author(s) 2013. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences O pen A ccess Coastal... to demarcate areas with very low, medium and high vulnerability. A combination of PVI and SVI values are further utilized to compute the coastal vulnerability in- dex (CVI). Finally, the various coastal segments are grouped into the 3 vulnerability classes...

  2. Flood vulnerability assessment of residential buildings by explicit damage process modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

    2015-01-01

    masonry building. Results are presented in terms of a parameter study for several building parameters and hazard characteristics, as well as, in terms of a comparison with damage data and literature vulnerability models. The parameter study indicates that hazard characteristics and building...... characteristics impact damage ratios as expected. Furthermore, the results are comparable to vulnerability models in literature. Strengths and shortcomings of the model are discussed. The modelling approach is considered as a step towards the establishment of vulnerability models that can serve as a basis...

  3. Extended defense systems :I. adversary-defender modeling grammar for vulnerability analysis and threat assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Merkle, Peter Benedict

    2006-03-01

    Vulnerability analysis and threat assessment require systematic treatments of adversary and defender characteristics. This work addresses the need for a formal grammar for the modeling and analysis of adversary and defender engagements of interest to the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). Analytical methods treating both linguistic and numerical information should ensure that neither aspect has disproportionate influence on assessment outcomes. The adversary-defender modeling (ADM) grammar employs classical set theory and notation. It is designed to incorporate contributions from subject matter experts in all relevant disciplines, without bias. The Attack Scenario Space U{sub S} is the set universe of all scenarios possible under physical laws. An attack scenario is a postulated event consisting of the active engagement of at least one adversary with at least one defended target. Target Information Space I{sub S} is the universe of information about targets and defenders. Adversary and defender groups are described by their respective Character super-sets, (A){sub P} and (D){sub F}. Each super-set contains six elements: Objectives, Knowledge, Veracity, Plans, Resources, and Skills. The Objectives are the desired end-state outcomes. Knowledge is comprised of empirical and theoretical a priori knowledge and emergent knowledge (learned during an attack), while Veracity is the correspondence of Knowledge with fact or outcome. Plans are ordered activity-task sequences (tuples) with logical contingencies. Resources are the a priori and opportunistic physical assets and intangible attributes applied to the execution of associated Plans elements. Skills for both adversary and defender include the assumed general and task competencies for the associated plan set, the realized value of competence in execution or exercise, and the opponent's planning assumption of the task competence.

  4. Physical Vulnerability Assessment Based on Fluid and Classical Mechanics to Support Cost-Benefit Analysis of Flood Risk Mitigation Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Volcan

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of flood events that occurred in autumn 2011 in the Italian regions of Liguria and Tuscany revived the engagement of the public decision-maker to enhance the synergy of flood control and land use planning. In this context, the design of efficient flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation critically relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the fixed and mobile elements exposed to flood hazard. In this paper we develop computation schemes enabling dynamic vulnerability and risk analyses for a broad typological variety of elements at risk. To show their applicability, a series of prime examples are discussed in detail, e.g. a bridge deck impacted by the flood and a car, first displaced and subsequently exposed to collision with fixed objects. We hold the view that it is essential that the derivation of the computational schemes to assess the vulnerability of endangered objects should be based on classical and fluid mechanics. In such a way, we aim to complement from a methodological perspective the existing, mainly empirical, vulnerability and risk assessment approaches and to support the design of effective flood risk mitigation strategies by defusing the main criticalities within the systems prone to flood risk.

  5. Indicator-based model to assess vulnerability to landslides in urban areas. Case study of Husi city (Eastern Romania)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grozavu, Adrian; Ciprian Margarint, Mihai; Catalin Stanga, Iulian

    2013-04-01

    In the last three or four decades, vulnerability evolved from physical fragility meanings to a more complex concept, being a key element of risk assessment. In landslide risk assessment, there are a large series of studies regarding landslide hazard, but far fewer researches focusing on vulnerability measurement. Furthermore, there is still no unitary understanding on the methodological framework, neither any internationally agreed standard for landslide vulnerability measurements. The omnipresent common element is the existence of elements at risk, but while some approaches are limited to exposure, other focus on the degree of losses (human injuries, material damages and monetary losses, structural dysfunctions etc.). These losses are differently assessed using both absolute and relative values on qualitative or quantitative scales and they are differently integrated to provide a final vulnerability value. This study aims to assess vulnerability to landslides at local level using an indicator-based model applied to urban areas and tested for Husi town (Eastern Romania). The study region is characterized by permeable and impermeable alternating sedimentary rocks, monoclinal geological structure and hilly relief with impressive cuestas, continental temperate climate, and precipitation of about 500 mm/year, rising to 700 m and even more in some rainy years. The town is a middle size one (25000 inhabitants) and it had an ascending evolution in the last centuries, followed by an increasing human pressure on lands. Methodologically, the first step was to assess the landslide susceptibility and to identify in this way those regions within which any asset would be exposed to landslide hazards. Landslide susceptibility was assessed using the logistic regression approach, taking into account several quantitative and qualitative factors (elements of geology, morphometry, rainfall, land use etc.). The spatial background consisted in the Digital Elevation Model and all derived

  6. Literature Review for the Baseline Knowledge Assessment of the Hydrogen, Fuel Cells, and Infrastructure Technologies Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Truett, L.F.

    2003-12-10

    The purpose of the Hydrogen, Fuel Cells, and Infrastructure Technologies (HFCIT) Program Baseline Knowledge Assessment is to measure the current level of awareness and understanding of hydrogen and fuel cell technologies and the hydrogen economy. This information will be an asset to the HFCIT program in formulating an overall education plan. It will also provide a baseline for comparison with future knowledge and opinion surveys. To assess the current understanding and establish the baseline, the HFCIT program plans to conduct scientific surveys of four target audience groups--the general public, the educational community, governmental agencies, and potential large users. The purpose of the literature review is to examine the literature and summarize the results of surveys that have been conducted in the recent past concerning the existing knowledge and attitudes toward hydrogen. This literature review covers both scientific and, to a lesser extent, non-scientific polls. Seven primary data sources were reviewed, two of which were studies based in Europe. Studies involved both closed-end and open-end questions; surveys varied in length from three questions to multi-page interviews. Populations involved in the studies were primarily adults, although one study involved students. The number of participants ranged from 13 to over 16,000 per study. In addition to the primary surveys, additional related studies were mined for pertinent information. The primary conclusions of the surveys reviewed are that the public knows very little about hydrogen and fuel cell technologies but is generally accepting of the potential for hydrogen use. In general, respondents consider themselves as environmentally conscious. The public considers safety as the primary issue surrounding hydrogen as a fuel. Price, performance, and convenience are also considerations that will have major impacts on purchase decisions.

  7. Environmental Assessment of Infrastructure Projects of Water Sector in Baghdad, Iraq

    OpenAIRE

    Allaa M. Aenab; Singh, S. K.

    2012-01-01

    In 1970s the city of Baghdad had a good infrastructure. Education and healthcare systems were widely regarded as the best in the Middle East. Income per capita rose to over US$3600 in the early 1980s. Since that time, successive wars and a repressive, state-dominated economic system have stifled economic growth and development and debilitated basic infrastructure and social services. At the end of the 2003 war, Baghdad’s infrastructure was seriously degraded. The majority of the population ha...

  8. Developing a System of National Climate Assessment Indicators to Track Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janetos, A. C.; Kenney, M. A.; Chen, R. S.; Arndt, D.

    2012-12-01

    The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/). Part of the vision for the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process is a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information that is useful to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. The indicators will be reviewed and updated so that the system adapts to new information. The NCA indicator system is not intended to serve as a vehicle for documenting rigorous cause and effect relationships. It is reasonable, however, for it to serve as a guide to those factors that affect the evolution of variability and change in the climate system, the resources and sectors of concern that are affected by it, and how society chooses to respond. Different components of the end-to-end climate issue serve as categories within which to organize an end-to-end system of indicators: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks Atmospheric Composition Physical Climate Variability and Change Sectors and Resources of Concern Adaptation and Mitigation Responses This framing has several advantages. It can be used to identify the different components of the end-to-end climate issue that both decision-makers and researchers are interested in. It is independent of scale, and therefore allows the indicators themselves to be described at

  9. Analysis of uncertainties in the entire process of tsunami vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillande, Richard; Gardi, Annalisa; Valencia, Nathalia; André, Camille

    2010-05-01

    In the framework of European SCHEMA project (www.schemaproject.org), whose aim is the development of a methodology for the vulnerability assessment for tsunami hazards in the Atlantic and Mediterranean area, we carried out an analysis of the uncertainties that intervene at different stages and several levels of the entire process, from post disaster field measures to hazard and damages assessment. Errors are for instance introduced when collecting post disaster observations during field survey, owing to the different measuring methods: type of instruments used, type of water marks taken into account, referential (sea level or ground), type of correction applied for tides. In some extreme cases (Banda Aceh, Indonesia), differences of several meters have been found between measures of inundation heights taken by different teams at the same locations. Other uncertainties are due to limitations of the numerical codes employed for reproducing the tsunami generation, propagation and run up. A very critical point is the accuracy of the input parameters for numerical modelling, especially the resolution of the employed DTM or DEM, which can noticeably affect the extension of the predicted inundated area. Concerning the duration of the modelled phenomenon, the comparison of five different numerical tools against a common test site led us to verify that the consistency of the computations on the long term varies sensitively depending on the code. This is particularly visible when observing the synthetic tide gauges, some of them showing maximum waves even 10 hours after the first one. This rises the problem of reliability of results for instance for emergency management in dangerous coastal strips exposed to repeated waves, where rescue teams may have to work during several hours or days. The damage assessment is carried out by means of fragility functions or matrices, which in our case have been empirically developed from data acquired where a very strong earthquake

  10. Vulnerability to Climate Change of Mangroves: Assessment from Cameroon, Central Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Isabella Zouh; Joanna C Ellison

    2012-01-01

    Intertidal mangrove ecosystems are sensitive to climate change impacts, particularly to associated relative sea level rise. Human stressors and low tidal range add to vulnerability, both characteristics of the Doula Estuary, Cameroon. To investigate vulnerability, spatial techniques were combined with ground surveys to map distributions of mangrove zones, and compare with historical spatial records to quantify change over the last few decades. Low technology techniques were used to establish ...

  11. Assessing the Vulnerability of Agricultural Households to Macroeconomic Shocks: Evidence from Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    Rubio, Gloria M.; Soloaga, Isidro

    2004-01-01

    This paper uses cross-sectional data from Mexico before and after the 1994 peso crisis to analyze rural household vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks. The study suggests that agricultural households are less vulnerable than non-agricultural households. The impacts vary depending on type of production and specialization level. Among agricultural households, those with a higher proportion of corn and bean production for self-consumption fared better than households which engaged in stronger m...

  12. Assessment of chemical vulnerabilities in the Hanford high-level waste tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this report is to summarize results of relevant data (tank farm and laboratory) and analysis related to potential chemical vulnerabilities of the Hanford Site waste tanks. Potential chemical safety vulnerabilities examined include spontaneous runaway reactions, condensed phase waste combustibility, and tank headspace flammability. The major conclusions of the report are the following: Spontaneous runaway reactions are not credible; condensed phase combustion is not likely; and periodic releases of flammable gas can be mitigated by interim stabilization

  13. GIS Fuzzy Expert System for the assessment of ecosystems vulnerability to fire in managing Mediterranean natural protected areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semeraro, Teodoro; Mastroleo, Giovanni; Aretano, Roberta; Facchinetti, Gisella; Zurlini, Giovanni; Petrosillo, Irene

    2016-03-01

    A significant threat to the natural and cultural heritage of Mediterranean natural protected areas (NPAs) is related to uncontrolled fires that can cause potential damages related to the loss or a reduction of ecosystems. The assessment and mapping of the vulnerability to fire can be useful to reduce landscape damages and to establish priority areas where it is necessary to plan measures to reduce the fire vulnerability. To this aim, a methodology based on an interactive computer-based system has been proposed in order to support NPA's management authority for the identification of vulnerable hotspots to fire through the selection of suitable indicators that allow discriminating different levels of sensitivity (e.g. Habitat relevance, Fragmentation, Fire behavior, Ecosystem Services, Vegetation recovery after fire) and stresses (agriculture, tourism, urbanization). In particular, a multi-criteria analysis based on Fuzzy Expert System (FES) integrated in a GIS environment has been developed in order to identify and map potential "hotspots" of fire vulnerability, where fire protection measures can be undertaken in advance. In order to test the effectiveness of this approach, this approach has been applied to the NPA of Torre Guaceto (Apulia Region, southern Italy). The most fire vulnerable areas are the patch of century-old forest characterized by high sensitivity and stress, and the wetlands and century-old olive groves due to their high sensitivity. The GIS fuzzy expert system provides evidence of its potential usefulness for the effective management of natural protected areas and can help conservation managers to plan and intervene in order to mitigate the fire vulnerability in accordance with conservation goals. PMID:26696610

  14. Development of the efficient emergency preparedness system for the nuclear critical infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The evaluation of the critical nuclear infrastructure vulnerability to threats like human occurrences, terrorist attacks and natural disasters and the preparation of emergency response plans with the estimation of optimized costs are of the vital importance for the assurance of a safe nuclear facilities operation and the national security. In the past national emergency systems did not include vulnerability assessments of the critical nuclear infrastructure as the important part of the comprehensive preparedness framework. The fundamental aims of the efficient emergency preparedness and response system are to provide a sustained emergency readiness and to prevent an emergency situation and accidents. But when an event happens the mission is to mitigate consequences and to protect the people and environment against the nuclear and radiological damage. The efficient emergency response system, which would be activated in the case of the nuclear and/or radiological emergency and release of the radioactivity to the environment, is an important element of a comprehensive system of the nuclear and radiation safety. In the article the new methodology for the critical nuclear infrastructure vulnerability assessment as a missing part of an efficient emergency preparedness system is presented. It can help the overall national energy sectors to identify and better understand the terrorist threats and vulnerabilities of their critical infrastructure. The presented methodology could also facilitate national agencies to develop and implement a vulnerability awareness and education programs for their critical assets to enhance the security, reliability and safe operation of the whole energy infrastructure. The vulnerability assessment methodology will also assist nuclear power plants to develop, validate, and disseminate the assessment and survey of new efficient countermeasures. The significant benefits of the new vulnerability assessment research are to increase nuclear power

  15. Plutonium working group report on environmental, safety and health vulnerabilities associated with the Department's plutonium storage. Volume II, part 7: Mound working group assessment team report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This is the report of a visit to the Mound site by the Working Group Assessment Team (WGAT) to assess plutonium vulnerabilities. Purposes of the visit were: to review results of the site's self assessment of current practices for handling and storing plutonium; to conduct an independent assessment of these practices; to reconcile differences and assemble a final list of vulnerabilities; to calculate consequences and probability for each vulnerability; and to issue a report to the Working Group. This report, representing completion of the Mound visit, will be compiled along with those from all other sites with plutonium inventories as part of a final report to the Secretary of Energy

  16. Adaptation of a pattern-scaling approach for assessment of local (village/valley) scale water resources and related vulnerabilities in the Upper Indus Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsythe, Nathan; Kilsby, Chris G.; Fowler, Hayley J.; Archer, David R.

    2010-05-01

    sites for medium-scale infrastructure projects. These catchments are placed in their context within the hydrological regime classification using the spatial data and (remote sensing) observations as well as river gauging measurements. The study assesses the degree of similarity with the larger basins of the same hydrological regime. This assessment focuses on the measured response to observed climate variable anomalies. The smallest scale considered is comprised of a number of case studies at the ungauged village/valley scale. These examples are based on the delineation of areas to which specific communities (villages) have customary (riparian) water rights. These examples were suggested by non-governmental organisations working on grassroots economic development initiatives and small-scale infrastructure projects in the region. The direct observations available for these subcatchments are limited to spatial data (elevation, snow parameters). The challenge at this level is to accurately extrapolate areal values (precipitation, temperature, runoff) from point observations at the basin scale. The study assesses both the degree of similarity in the distribution of spatial parameters to the larger gauged basins and the interannual variability (spatial heterogeneity) of remotely-sensed snow cover and snow-water-equivalent at this subcatchment scale. Based upon the characterisation of spatial and interannual variability at these three spatial scales, the challenges facing local water resource managers and infrastructure operators are enumerated. Local vulnerabilities include, but are not limited to, varying thresholds in irrigation water requirements based on crop-type, minimum base flows for micro-hydropower generation during winter (high load) months and relatively small but growing demand for domestic water usage. In conclusion the study posits potential strategies for managing interannual variability and potential emerging trends. Suggested strategies are guided by the

  17. Eco-environmental vulnerability assessment for large drinking water resource: a case study of Qiandao Lake Area, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Qing; Li, Jun; Deng, Jinsong; Lin, Yi; Ma, Ligang; Wu, Chaofan; Wang, Ke; Hong, Yang

    2015-09-01

    The Qiandao Lake Area (QLA) is of great significance in terms of drinking water supply in East Coast China as well as a nationally renowned tourist attraction. A series of laws and regulations regarding the QLA environment have been enacted and implemented throughout the past decade with the aim of negating the harmful effects associated with expanding urbanization and industrialization. In this research, an assessment framework was developed to analyze the eco-environmental vulnerability of the QLA from 1990-2010 by integrating fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and geographical information systems (GIS) in an attempt to gain insights into the status quo of the QLA so as to review and evaluate the effectiveness of the related policies. After processing and analyzing the temporal and spatial variation of eco-environmental vulnerability and major environmental issues in the QLA, we found that the state of eco-environmental vulnerability of the QLA was acceptable, though a moderate deterioration was detected during the study period. Furthermore, analysis of the combination of vulnerability and water quality indicated that the water quality showed signs of declination, though the overall status remained satisfactory. It was hence concluded that the collective protection and treatment actions were effective over the study period, whereas immediately stricter measures would be required for protecting the drinking water quality from domestic sewage and industrial wastewater. Finally, the spatial variation of the eco-environmental vulnerability assessment also implied that specifically more targeted measures should be adopted in respective regions for long-term sustainable development of the QLA.

  18. A probabilistic risk assessment for the vulnerability of the European carbon cycle to weather extremes: the ecosystem perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolinski, S.; Rammig, A.; Walz, A.; von Bloh, W.; van Oijen, M.; Thonicke, K.

    2015-03-01

    Extreme weather events are likely to occur more often under climate change and the resulting effects on ecosystems could lead to a further acceleration of climate change. But not all extreme weather events lead to extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions. We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment based on time series of ecosystem behaviour and climate conditions. Given the risk assessment terminology, vulnerability and risk for the previously defined hazard are estimated on the basis of observed hazardous ecosystem behaviour. We apply this approach to extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystems to drought, defining the hazard as a negative net biome productivity over a 12-month period. We show an application for two selected sites using data for 1981-2010 and then apply the method to the pan-European scale for the same period, based on numerical modelling results (LPJmL for ecosystem behaviour; ERA-Interim data for climate). Our site-specific results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, using the SPEI to describe the climate condition. The site in Spain provides an example of vulnerability to drought because the expected value of the SPEI is 0.4 lower for hazardous than for non-hazardous ecosystem behaviour. In northern Germany, on the contrary, the site is not vulnerable to drought because the SPEI expectation values imply wetter conditions in the hazard case than in the non-hazard case. At the pan-European scale, ecosystem vulnerability to drought is calculated in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas Scandinavian ecosystems are vulnerable under conditions without water shortages. These first model-based applications indicate the conceptual advantages of the proposed method by focusing on the identification of critical weather conditions for which we observe hazardous ecosystem behaviour in the analysed data set. Application of the method to empirical time

  19. Sensitivity Assessment. Localization of Road Transport Infrastructures in the Province of Lucca

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luisa Santini

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The work, result of a research carried out in collaboration with the Chamber of Commerce of Lucca, aims to implement a tool for the evaluation of positive and negative effects arising by the “widening” or “new construction” of road transport infrastructures in the territory. In particular, with respect to the impacts generated by the project actions relating to the construction or widening of roads, the research has produced several sensitivity maps of the studied area and a graphical interface, accessible on the Internet and user friendly, allowing the synthetic evaluation of the impacts and the comparison of different scenarios The implemented methodology, through the use of advanced tools for data management and processing and for impacts quantification and assessment, has allowed us to define a very detailed database related to all components of study area, both natural and anthropic, and to build a "synthetic sensitivity index", obtained from the combination of thematic information about each component and from the relationships that involve each others. It’s therefore to consider an indispensable support tool for planners and evaluators (eg. SEA procedures, but also for others users (eg organizations representing businesses, consumer associations, etc.. In fact it allows to acquire a deep knowledge of the area (environmental and economic resources, to verify the sensitivity of each part of the area with respect to a series of project actions concerning both the construction of new roads that the widening of the existing ones and finally to evaluate different localization scenarios for the same type of project or different impact scenarios for the same localization.

  20. Assessing Cost-effectiveness of Green Infrastructures in response to Large Storm Events at Household Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chui, T. F. M.; Liu, X.; Zhan, W.

    2015-12-01

    Green infrastructures (GI) are becoming more important for urban stormwater control worldwide. However, relatively few studies focus on researching the specific designs of GI at household scale. This study assesses the hydrological performance and cost-effectiveness of different GI designs, namely green roofs, bioretention systems and porous pavements. It aims to generate generic insights by comparing the optimal designs of each GI in 2-year and 50-year storms of Hong Kong, China and Seattle, US. EPA SWMM is first used to simulate the hydrologic performance, in particular, the peak runoff reduction of thousands of GI designs. Then, life cycle costs of the designs are computed and their effectiveness, in terms of peak runoff reduction percentage per thousand dollars, is compared. The peak runoff reduction increases almost linearly with costs for green roofs. However, for bioretention systems and porous pavements, peak runoff reduction only increases significantly with costs in the mid values. For achieving the same peak runoff reduction percentage, the optimal soil depth of green roofs increases with the design storm, while surface area does not change significantly. On the other hand, for bioretention systems and porous pavements, the optimal surface area increases with the design storm, while thickness does not change significantly. In general, the cost effectiveness of porous pavements is highest, followed by bioretention systems and then green roofs. The cost effectiveness is higher for a smaller storm, and is thus higher for 2-year storm than 50-year storm, and is also higher for Seattle when compared to Hong Kong. This study allows us to better understand the hydrological performance and cost-effectiveness of different GI designs. It facilitates the implementation of optimal choice and design of each specific GI for stormwater mitigation.

  1. Vulnerable Genders, Vulnerable Loves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schleicher, Marianne

    2015-01-01

    insights from the history of religion, I see hope for tolerance and respect of variant genders and loves on the verge of cultural intelligibility lying in the fact that cultural violence is reduced to a far larger extent by investing in the gathering of knowledge about complex identities inside and outside......This chapter analyses religious reflections on vulnerable genders and vulnerable loves from the Hebrew Bible to early Rabbinic literature. It is based on theories by inter alia Donna Haraway on complex identities, Turner and Maryanski on love as a prerequisite for survival, Michel Foucault on...

  2. A GIS-based vulnerability assessment tool for the quantification of natural risk in mountain and coastal areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puissant, A.; Schlosser, A.; Gazo, A.; -P., Malet J.; Lissak, C.; Goutiere, M.; Peltier, A.; Houet, T.

    2015-04-01

    Decision-makers need friendly tools for estimating natural risk for different future scenarios and for designing risk reduction strategies. In this work, a flexible GIS-based tool is presented in order to estimate vulnerability indicators (physical, economical, social) over territories of different size and at different scales. The tool has been designed in order to meet the requests of several categories of users (e.g. risk managers, decision planners, scientists). The tool is dedicated to the assessment of the vulnerability from several natural hazards (rock fall, landslide, flood, coastal erosion). On the basis of a database on the elements at risk, the user first selects the analysis scale (micro at the scale of the element at risk; meso at the scale of the municipality; macro at the scale of the catchment). Then, the calculation of vulnerability indicators is performed from this selection. The functionalities of the tool will be presented, and example of vulnerability indicators for some communities exposed will be discussed. The tool is developed within the ANR Project SAMCO.

  3. An Assessment of the radiological vulnerability for Spanish soils; Estimacion de indices de vulnerabilidad radiologica para los suelos peninsulares espanoles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trueba, C.; Millan, R.; Schimid, T.; Lago, C.; Gutierrez, J. [Ciemat. Madrid (Spain)

    2000-07-01

    A methodology is presented to assess the radiological vulnerability of soils, based exclusively on their pedagogical properties. The radiological vulnerability defined as the potential capacity of soils to fix or transfer deposited radiocaesium and radiostrontium to plants, is represented in terms of vulnerability indexes. Two pathways are considered, the external irradiation and their transfer through the food chain, where the top horizon and a critical depth of 60 cm is taken into account, respectively, Partial vulnerability indexes are considered for each pathway, which allows a qualitative prediction of the behaviour of the contaminants in soils Global indexes have been obtained as the sum of the partial indexes. The methodology has been applied and validated using a data base consisting of more than 2000 soil profiles selected from all over Spain. This included a pedagogical characterisation and normalisation of the different soil profiles. Results have been obtained for individual soil profiles and with the aid of a GIS, the distribution of the partial and global indexes have been presented for the most representative soil types. (Author)

  4. Risk analysis of underground infrastructures in urban areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cagno, Enrico, E-mail: Enrico.Cagno@PoliMI.i [Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, Milan 20132 (Italy); De Ambroggi, Massimiliano; Grande, Ottavio; Trucco, Paolo [Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, Milan 20132 (Italy)

    2011-01-15

    The paper presents an integrated approach for vulnerability and resilience analysis for underground infrastructures, i.e. a societal risk analysis of the failures of underground services for an urban area. The approach is based on the detailed study of (1) domino-effects for the components of a single infrastructure and for a given set of infrastructures interoperated and/or belonging to the same area; (2) risk and vulnerability analysis of a given area; (3) identification of a set of intervention guidelines, in order to improve the overall system resilience. The use of an integrated (interoperability and area) approach, breaking down the analysis area extent into sub-areas and assessing the dependencies among sub-areas both in terms of interoperability and damage propagation of critical infrastructures, demonstrates a useful advantage in terms of resilience analysis, more consistent with the 'zoned' nature of failures of the underground infrastructures. An applied case, describing the interoperability and damage propagation analysis with the evaluation of time-dependency for the infrastructures and targets and of different kinds of interventions of the underground infrastructures of a town, is presented for this purpose.

  5. Risk analysis of underground infrastructures in urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper presents an integrated approach for vulnerability and resilience analysis for underground infrastructures, i.e. a societal risk analysis of the failures of underground services for an urban area. The approach is based on the detailed study of (1) domino-effects for the components of a single infrastructure and for a given set of infrastructures interoperated and/or belonging to the same area; (2) risk and vulnerability analysis of a given area; (3) identification of a set of intervention guidelines, in order to improve the overall system resilience. The use of an integrated (interoperability and area) approach, breaking down the analysis area extent into sub-areas and assessing the dependencies among sub-areas both in terms of interoperability and damage propagation of critical infrastructures, demonstrates a useful advantage in terms of resilience analysis, more consistent with the 'zoned' nature of failures of the underground infrastructures. An applied case, describing the interoperability and damage propagation analysis with the evaluation of time-dependency for the infrastructures and targets and of different kinds of interventions of the underground infrastructures of a town, is presented for this purpose.

  6. Security of Energy Supply - Indicators for Measuring Vulnerability and Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In an era of increasing globalization, secure and affordable energy supplies are an essential requirement for economies to work, much less develop and grow in the long term. The present study, Energy security of supply - indicators for measuring vulnerability and risk, develops a broad methodical assessment concept to raise awareness among policy makers and the public regarding the vulnerability of energy supplies to potential energy crises. It explores the different aspects of vulnerability, from the primary energy level to energy infrastructure (storage, networks, power plant parks) to the efficiency and cost of energy consumption for end users. The individual characteristics of the formal concept were quantitatively evaluated for several OECD regions (Germany, UK, Sweden, Poland, Italy, France and the US) using a comprehensive empirical database and reduced to a single indicator for assessing energy supply vulnerability. Part of the database comprises historical observations for the period between 1978 and 2007.(author).