WorldWideScience

Sample records for assessing infrastructure vulnerability

  1. Assessing infrastructure vulnerability to major floods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jenssen, Lars

    1998-12-31

    This thesis proposes a method for assessing the direct effects of serious floods on a physical infrastructure or utility. This method should be useful in contingency planning and in the design of structures likely to be damaged by flooding. A review is given of (1) methods of floodplain management and strategies for mitigating floods, (2) methods of risk analysis that will become increasingly important in flood management, (3) methods for hydraulic computations, (4) a variety of scour assessment methods and (5) applications of geographic information systems (GIS) to the analysis of flood vulnerability. Three computer codes were developed: CULVCAP computes the headwater level for circular and box culverts, SCOUR for assessing riprap stability and scour depths, and FASTFLOOD prepares input rainfall series and input files for the rainfall-runoff model used in the case study. A road system in central Norway was chosen to study how to analyse the flood vulnerability of an infrastructure. Finally, the thesis proposes a method for analysing the flood vulnerability of physical infrastructure. The method involves a general stage that will provide data on which parts of the infrastructure are potentially vulnerable to flooding and how to analyse them, and a specific stage which is concerned with analysing one particular kind of physical infrastructure in a study area. 123 refs., 59 figs., 17 tabs= .

  2. Assessing Vulnerabilities, Risks, and Consequences of Damage to Critical Infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suski, N.; Wuest, C.

    2011-01-01

    Since the publication of 'Critical Foundations: Protecting America's Infrastructure,' there has been a keen understanding of the complexity, interdependencies, and shared responsibility required to protect the nation's most critical assets that are essential to our way of life. The original 5 sectors defined in 1997 have grown to 18 Critical Infrastructures and Key Resources (CIKR), which are discussed in the 2009 National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP) and its supporting sector-specific plans. The NIPP provides the structure for a national program dedicated to enhanced protection and resiliency of the nation's infrastructure. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) provides in-depth, multi-disciplinary assessments of threat, vulnerability, and consequence across all 18 sectors at scales ranging from specific facilities to infrastructures spanning multi-state regions, such as the Oil and Natural Gas (ONG) sector. Like many of the CIKR sectors, the ONG sector is comprised of production, processing, distribution, and storage of highly valuable and potentially dangerous commodities. Furthermore, there are significant interdependencies with other sectors, including transportation, communication, finance, and government. Understanding the potentially devastating consequences and collateral damage resulting from a terrorist attack or natural event is an important element of LLNL's infrastructure security programs. Our work began in the energy sector in the late 1990s and quickly expanded other critical infrastructure sectors. We have performed over 600 physical assessments with a particular emphasis on those sectors that utilize, store, or ship potentially hazardous materials and for whom cyber security is important. The success of our approach is based on building awareness of vulnerabilities and risks and working directly with industry partners to collectively advance infrastructure protection. This approach consists of three phases: The Pre-Assessment

  3. Assessing the vulnerability of infrastructure to climate change on the Islands of Samoa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fakhruddin, S. H. M.; Babel, M. S.; Kawasaki, A.

    2015-06-01

    Pacific Islanders have been exposed to risks associated with climate change. Samoa, as one of the Pacific Islands, is prone to climatic hazards that will likely increase in the coming decades, affecting coastal communities and infrastructure around the islands. Climate models do not predict a reduction of such disaster events in the future in Samoa; indeed, most predict an increase. This paper identifies key infrastructure and their functions and status in order to provide an overall picture of relative vulnerability to climate-related stresses of such infrastructure on the island. By reviewing existing reports as well as holding a series of consultation meetings, a list of critical infrastructure was developed and shared with stakeholders for their consideration. An indicator-based vulnerability model (SIVM) was developed in collaboration with stakeholders to assess the vulnerability of selected infrastructure systems on the Samoan Islands. Damage costs were extracted from the Cyclone Evan recovery needs document. Additionally, data on criticality and capacity to repair damage were collected from stakeholders. Having stakeholder perspectives on these two issues was important because (a) criticality of a given infrastructure could be viewed differently among different stakeholders, and (b) stakeholders were the best available source (in this study) to estimate the capacity to repair non-physical damage to such infrastructure. Analysis of the results suggested a ranking of sectors from the most vulnerable to least vulnerable are: the transportation sector, the power sector, the water supply sector and the sewerage system.

  4. Vulnerability assessment as a missing part of efficient regulatory emergency preparedness system for nuclear critical infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostadinov, V.

    2007-01-01

    One introduces a new model to assess the vulnerability of the nuclear infrastructure critical facilities. The new procedure of the vulnerability assessment (the VA) aims to reevaluate the efficiency of the present-day safeguards. On the basis of deeper insight into the VA new strategy and of the elaborated procedure to analyze the hazards for the nuclear power facilities one recommends the key safeguards affecting the damage magnitude [ru

  5. Coastal Vulnerability and risk assessment of infrastructures, natural and cultural heritage sites in Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrakis, George; Kampanis, Nikolaos

    2016-04-01

    The majority of human activities are concentrated around coastal areas, making coastline retreat, a significant threat to coastal infrastructure, thus increasing protection cost and investment revenue losses. In this study the management of coastal areas in terms of protecting coastal infrastructures, cultural and environmental heritage sites, through risk assessment analysis is been made. The scope is to provide data for spatial planning for future developments in the coastal zone and the protection of existing ones. Also to determine the impact of coastal changes related to the loss of natural resources, agricultural land and beaches. The analysis is based on a multidisciplinary approach, combining environmental, spatial and economic data. This can be implemented by integrating the assessment of vulnerability of coasts, the spatial distribution and structural elements of coastal infrastructure (transport, tourism, and energy) and financial data by region, in a spatial database. The approach is based on coastal vulnerability estimations, considering sea level rise, land loss, extreme events, safety, adaptability and resilience of infrastructure and natural sites. It is based on coupling of environmental indicators and econometric models to determine the socio-economic impact in coastal infrastructure, cultural and environmental heritage sites. The indicators include variables like the coastal geomorphology; coastal slope; relative sea-level rise rate; shoreline erosion/accretion rate; mean tidal range and mean wave height. The anthropogenic factors include variables like settlements, sites of cultural heritage, transport networks, land uses, significance of infrastructure (e.g. military, power plans) and economic activities. The analysis in performed by a GIS application. The forcing variables are determined with the use of sub-indices related to coastal geomorphology, climate and wave variables and the socioeconomics of the coastal zone. The Greek coastline in

  6. The role of minimum supply and social vulnerability assessment for governing critical infrastructure failure: current gaps and future agenda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Garschagen

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Increased attention has lately been given to the resilience of critical infrastructure in the context of natural hazards and disasters. The major focus therein is on the sensitivity of critical infrastructure technologies and their management contingencies. However, strikingly little attention has been given to assessing and mitigating social vulnerabilities towards the failure of critical infrastructure and to the development, design and implementation of minimum supply standards in situations of major infrastructure failure. Addressing this gap and contributing to a more integrative perspective on critical infrastructure resilience is the objective of this paper. It asks which role social vulnerability assessments and minimum supply considerations can, should and do – or do not – play for the management and governance of critical infrastructure failure. In its first part, the paper provides a structured review on achievements and remaining gaps in the management of critical infrastructure and the understanding of social vulnerabilities towards disaster-related infrastructure failures. Special attention is given to the current state of minimum supply concepts with a regional focus on policies in Germany and the EU. In its second part, the paper then responds to the identified gaps by developing a heuristic model on the linkages of critical infrastructure management, social vulnerability and minimum supply. This framework helps to inform a vision of a future research agenda, which is presented in the paper's third part. Overall, the analysis suggests that the assessment of socially differentiated vulnerabilities towards critical infrastructure failure needs to be undertaken more stringently to inform the scientifically and politically difficult debate about minimum supply standards and the shared responsibilities for securing them.

  7. The role of minimum supply and social vulnerability assessment for governing critical infrastructure failure: current gaps and future agenda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garschagen, Matthias; Sandholz, Simone

    2018-04-01

    Increased attention has lately been given to the resilience of critical infrastructure in the context of natural hazards and disasters. The major focus therein is on the sensitivity of critical infrastructure technologies and their management contingencies. However, strikingly little attention has been given to assessing and mitigating social vulnerabilities towards the failure of critical infrastructure and to the development, design and implementation of minimum supply standards in situations of major infrastructure failure. Addressing this gap and contributing to a more integrative perspective on critical infrastructure resilience is the objective of this paper. It asks which role social vulnerability assessments and minimum supply considerations can, should and do - or do not - play for the management and governance of critical infrastructure failure. In its first part, the paper provides a structured review on achievements and remaining gaps in the management of critical infrastructure and the understanding of social vulnerabilities towards disaster-related infrastructure failures. Special attention is given to the current state of minimum supply concepts with a regional focus on policies in Germany and the EU. In its second part, the paper then responds to the identified gaps by developing a heuristic model on the linkages of critical infrastructure management, social vulnerability and minimum supply. This framework helps to inform a vision of a future research agenda, which is presented in the paper's third part. Overall, the analysis suggests that the assessment of socially differentiated vulnerabilities towards critical infrastructure failure needs to be undertaken more stringently to inform the scientifically and politically difficult debate about minimum supply standards and the shared responsibilities for securing them.

  8. Assessing the Vulnerability of Large Critical Infrastructure Using Fully-Coupled Blast Effects Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McMichael, L D; Noble, C R; Margraf, J D; Glascoe, L G

    2009-03-26

    Structural failures, such as the MacArthur Maze I-880 overpass in Oakland, California and the I-35 bridge in Minneapolis, Minnesota, are recent examples of our national infrastructure's fragility and serve as an important reminder of such infrastructure in our everyday lives. These two failures, as well as the World Trade Center's collapse and the levee failures in New Orleans, highlight the national importance of protecting our infrastructure as much as possible against acts of terrorism and natural hazards. This paper describes a process for evaluating the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to large blast loads using a fully-coupled finite element approach. A description of the finite element software and modeling technique is discussed along with the experimental validation of the numerical tools. We discuss how such an approach can be used for specific problems such as modeling the progressive collapse of a building.

  9. A Conceptual Framework for Vulnerability Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Critical Oil and Gas Infrastructure in the Niger Delta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin Udie

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The impact of climate change on the Niger Delta is severe, as extreme weather events have inflicted various degrees of stress on critical oil/gas infrastructure. Typically, assets managers and government agencies lack a clear framework for evaluating the vulnerability of these systems. This paper presents a participatory framework for the vulnerability assessment of critical oil/gas infrastructure to climate change impacts in the Niger Delta context. Through a critical review of relevant literature and triangulating observational and exploratory data from the field, this paper has developed a conceptual framework with three elements: (1 a preliminary scoping activity; (2 the vulnerability assessment; and (3 mainstreaming the results into institutional asset management codes. Scoping involves the definition of research aims and objectives, review of prevailing climate burdens and impacts, exploratory investigation, screening for new (planned assets and selection of relevant infrastructure. The emphasis on screening for planned infrastructure is to facilitate the incorporation of sustainable adaptive capacities into the original design of identified systems. A conceptual framework for vulnerability assessment is presented as a robust systematic iterative model for the evaluation of selected assets using an appropriate methodology. In this study, analytic hierarchy process (AHP is applied while mainstreaming as part of the research framework is emphasised to aid commercial implementation from an expert-based perspective. The study recommends the use of other suitable methodologies and systematic approaches to test the flexibility of the framework.

  10. Next-generation Algorithms for Assessing Infrastructure Vulnerability and Optimizing System Resilience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burchett, Deon L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Chen, Richard Li-Yang [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Phillips, Cynthia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Richard, Jean-Philippe [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-05-01

    This report summarizes the work performed under the project project Next-Generation Algo- rithms for Assessing Infrastructure Vulnerability and Optimizing System Resilience. The goal of the project was to improve mathematical programming-based optimization technology for in- frastructure protection. In general, the owner of a network wishes to design a network a network that can perform well when certain transportation channels are inhibited (e.g. destroyed) by an adversary. These are typically bi-level problems where the owner designs a system, an adversary optimally attacks it, and then the owner can recover by optimally using the remaining network. This project funded three years of Deon Burchett's graduate research. Deon's graduate advisor, Professor Jean-Philippe Richard, and his Sandia advisors, Richard Chen and Cynthia Phillips, supported Deon on other funds or volunteer time. This report is, therefore. essentially a replication of the Ph.D. dissertation it funded [12] in a format required for project documentation. The thesis had some general polyhedral research. This is the study of the structure of the feasi- ble region of mathematical programs, such as integer programs. For example, an integer program optimizes a linear objective function subject to linear constraints, and (nonlinear) integrality con- straints on the variables. The feasible region without the integrality constraints is a convex polygon. Careful study of additional valid constraints can significantly improve computational performance. Here is the abstract from the dissertation: We perform a polyhedral study of a multi-commodity generalization of variable upper bound flow models. In particular, we establish some relations between facets of single- and multi- commodity models. We then introduce a new family of inequalities, which generalizes traditional flow cover inequalities to the multi-commodity context. We present encouraging numerical results. We also consider the directed

  11. Critical infrastructures risk and vulnerability assessment in transportation of dangerous goods transportation by road and rail

    CERN Document Server

    Vamanu, Bogdan I; Katina, Polinpapilinho F

    2016-01-01

    This book addresses a key issue in today’s society: the safer transport of dangerous goods, taking into account people, the environment and economics. In particular, it offers a potential approach to identifying the issues, developing the models, providing the methods and recommending the tools to address the risks and vulnerabilities involved. We believe this can only be achieved by assessing those risks in a comprehensive, quantifiable and integrated manner. Examining both rail and road transportation, the book is divided into three sections, covering: the mature and accepted (by both academia and practitioners) methodology of risk assessment; the vulnerability assessment – a novel approach proposed as a vital complement to risk; guidance and support to build the tools that make methods and equations to yield: the Decision Support Systems. Throughout the book, the authors do not endeavor to provide THE solution. Instead, the book offers insightful food for thought for students, researchers, practitioner...

  12. A probabilistic approach for assessing the vulnerability of transportation infrastructure to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, E. M.; Kirshen, P. H.; Bosma, K.; Watson, C.; Miller, S.; McArthur, K.

    2015-12-01

    There now exists a plethora of information attesting to the reality of our changing climate and its impacts on both human and natural systems. There also exists a growing literature linking climate change impacts and transportation infrastructure (highways, bridges, tunnels, railway, shipping ports, etc.) which largely agrees that the nation's transportation systems are vulnerable. To assess this vulnerability along the coast, flooding due to sea level rise and storm surge has most commonly been evaluated by simply increasing the water surface elevation and then estimating flood depth by comparing the new water surface elevation with the topographic elevations of the land surface. While this rudimentary "bathtub" approach may provide a first order identification of potential areas of vulnerability, accurate assessment requires a high resolution, physically-based hydrodynamic model that can simulate inundation due to the combined effects of sea level rise, storm surge, tides and wave action for site-specific locations. Furthermore, neither the "bathtub" approach nor other scenario-based approaches can quantify the probability of flooding due to these impacts. We developed a high resolution coupled ocean circulation-wave model (ADCIRC/SWAN) that utilizes a Monte Carlo approach for predicting the depths and associated exceedance probabilities of flooding due to both tropical (hurricanes) and extra-tropical storms under current and future climate conditions. This required the development of an entirely new database of meteorological forcing (e.g. pressure, wind speed, etc.) for historical Nor'easters in the North Atlantic basin. Flooding due to hurricanes and Nor'easters was simulated separately and then composite flood probability distributions were developed. Model results were used to assess the vulnerability of the Central Artery/Tunnel system in Boston, Massachusetts to coastal flooding now and in the future. Local and regional adaptation strategies were

  13. Assessing Storm Vulnerabilities and Resilience Strategies: A Scenario-Method for Engaging Stakeholders of Public/Private Maritime Infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, A.; Burroughs, R.

    2014-12-01

    This presentation discusses a new method to assess vulnerability and resilience strategies for stakeholders of coastal-dependent transportation infrastructure, such as seaports. Much coastal infrastructure faces increasing risk to extreme events resulting from sea level rise and tropical storms. As seen after Hurricane Sandy, natural disasters result in economic costs, damages to the environment, and negative consequences on resident's quality of life. In the coming decades, tough decisions will need to be made about investment measures to protect critical infrastructure. Coastal communities will need to weigh the costs and benefits of a new storm barrier, for example, against those of retrofitting, elevating or simply doing nothing. These decisions require understanding the priorities and concerns of stakeholders. For ports, these include shippers, insurers, tenants, and ultimate consumers of the port cargo on a local and global scale, all of whom have a stake in addressing port vulnerabilities.Decision-makers in exposed coastal areas need tools to understand stakeholders concerns and perceptions of potential resilience strategies. For ports, they need answers to: 1) How will stakeholders be affected? 2) What strategies could be implemented to build resilience? 3) How effectively would the strategies mitigate stakeholder concerns? 4) What level of time and investment would strategies require? 5) Which stakeholders could/should take responsibility? Our stakeholder-based method provides answers to questions 1-3 and forms the basis for further work to address 4 and 5.Together with an expert group, we developed a pilot study for stakeholders of Rhode Island's critical energy port, the Port of Providence. Our method uses a plausible extreme storm scenario with localized visualizations and a portfolio of potential resilience strategies. We tailor a multi-criteria decision analysis tool and, through a series of workshops, we use the storm scenario, resilience strategies

  14. Assessing vulnerability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hellmuth, M.; Kabat, P.

    2003-01-01

    It is in the shantytowns and rural villages of the Third World that floods and droughts strike hardest and deepest. Vulnerability to the vagaries of climate depends not only on location, but, crucially, on the capacity of the victims to cope with the impacts of extreme weather. So, where are the

  15. Flood vulnerability of critical infrastructure in Cork, Ireland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Bruijn Karin M.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent flood events in Ireland and particularly in County Cork have caused significant disruption to health service provisions, interruption of water and power supplies, and damage to roads and other transportation infrastructure, affecting the lives of hundreds of thousands of people over a prolonged period of weeks. These events clearly reveal- the vulnerability of the critical infrastructure to flooding and the dependence of society on critical infrastructure. In order to reduce the flood vulnerability and increase the resilience of the critical infrastructure networks in the future, detailed evidence-based analysis and assessment is essential. To this end a case study has been carried out on Cork City which analyses this vulnerability as it was in 2009, and as it is currently, and identifies adaptation options to reduce the future vulnerability of critical infrastructure to flooding and to build a more resilient society. This paper describes the storyline approach and CIrcle tool and their application to Cork City which focused on the analysis of the flood vulnerability of critical infrastructure and the impacts of failure of the infrastructure for other critical functions and on society.

  16. Infrastructure Damage/Fragility Models and Data Quality Issues Associated with Department of Defense Climate Vulnerability and Impact Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-26

    Jeffrey Donnelly, Richard Moss,  Joseph Donoghue, Steve Kish, Jim Elsner, Robert Evans, David LaBranche, Justin LaRose, Adam  Parris,  Chris  Weaver...Garrow, L.,  Higgins , M., and Meyer, M. (2013). ”Impacts of Climate Change on Scour‐ Vulnerable Bridges: Assessment Based on HYRISK.” J. Infrastruct...Adam Parris  NOAA Regional Integrated Sciences and  Assessments Program  Y  Chris  Weaver  U.S. Global Change Research Program  Y    83    Name

  17. Advanced methods for the risk, vulnerability and resilience assessment of safety-critical engineering components, systems and infrastructures, in the presence of uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pedroni, Nicolas

    2016-01-01

    Safety-critical industrial installations (e.g., nuclear plants) and infrastructures (e.g., power transmission networks) are complex systems composed by a multitude and variety of heterogeneous 'elements', which are highly interconnected and mutually dependent. In addition, such systems are affected by large uncertainties in the characterization of the failure and recovery behavior of their components, interconnections and interactions. Such characteristics raise concerns with respect to the system risk, vulnerability and resilience properties, which have to be accurately and precisely assessed for decision making purposes. In general, this entails the following main steps: (1) representation of the system to capture its main features; (2) construction of a mathematical model of the system; (3) simulation of the behavior of the system under various uncertain conditions to evaluate the relevant risk, vulnerability and resilience metrics by propagating the uncertainties through the mathematical model; (4) decision making to (optimally) determine the set of protective actions to effectively reduce (resp., increase) the system risk and vulnerability (resp., resilience). New methods to address these issues have been developed in this dissertation. Specifically, the research works have been carried out along two main axes: (1) the study of approaches for uncertainty modeling and quantification; (2) the development of advanced computational methods for the efficient system modeling, simulation and analysis in the presence of uncertainties. (author)

  18. Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Site-Vicinity Infrastructure for Supporting the Accident Management of a Nuclear Power Plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. J. Katona

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Nuclear power plants shall be designed to resist the effects of large earthquakes. The design basis earthquake affects large area around the plant site and can cause serious consequences that will affect the logistical support of the emergency actions at the plant, influence the psychological condition of the plant personnel, and determine the workload of the country’s disaster management personnel. In this paper the main qualitative findings of a study are presented that have been performed for the case of a hypothetical 10−4/a probability design basis earthquake for the Paks Nuclear Power Plant, Hungary. The study covers the qualitative assessment of the postearthquake conditions at the settlements around the plant site including quantitative evaluation of the condition of dwellings. The main goal of the recent phase of the study was to identify public utility vulnerabilities that define the outside support conditions of the nuclear power plant accident management. The results of the study can be used for the planning of logistical support of the plant accident management staff. The study also contributes to better understanding of the working conditions of the disaster management services in the region around the nuclear power plant.

  19. An approach for modelling interdependent infrastructures in the context of vulnerability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johansson, Jonas; Hassel, Henrik

    2010-01-01

    Technical infrastructures of the society are becoming more and more interconnected and interdependent, i.e. the function of an infrastructure influences the function of other infrastructures. Disturbances in one infrastructure therefore often traverse to other dependent infrastructures and possibly even back to the infrastructure where the failure originated. It is becoming increasingly important to take these interdependencies into account when assessing the vulnerability of technical infrastructures. In the present paper, an approach for modelling interdependent technical infrastructures is proposed. The modelling approach considers structural properties, as employed in graph theory, as well as functional properties to increase its fidelity and usefulness. By modelling a fictional electrified railway network that consists of five systems and interdependencies between the systems, it is shown how the model can be employed in a vulnerability analysis. The model aims to capture both functional and geographic interdependencies. It is concluded that the proposed modelling approach is promising and suitable in the context of vulnerability analyses of interdependent systems.

  20. Advanced methodology for risk and vulnerability assessment of interdependency of critical infrastructure in respect to urban floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serre Damien

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The behaviour of the urban network infrastructures, and their interactions during flood events, will have direct and indirect consequences on the flood risk level in the built environment. By urban network infrastructures we include all the urban technical networks like transportation, energy, water supply, waste water, telecommunication…able to spread the flood risk in cities, qualified as critical infrastructures due to their major roles for modern living standards. From history, most of cities in the world have been built close to coast lines or to river to beneficiate this means of communication and trade. Step by step, to avoid being flooded, defences like levees have been built. The capacity of the levees to retain the floods depends on their conditions, their performance level and the capacity of the authorities to well maintain these infrastructures. But recent history shows the limits of a flood risk management strategy focused on protection, leading to levee breaks these last decades. Then, in case of levee break, cities will be flooded. The urban technical networks, due to the way they have been designed, their conditions and their locations in the city, will play a major role in the diffusion of the flood extent. Also, the flood risk will have consequences in some not flooded neighbourhoods due to networks collapses and complex interdependencies. This article describes some methods to design spatial decision support systems in that context.

  1. Developing a Comprehensive and Integrated Vulnerability Assessment Methodology for the Defense Department's Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) Program. A Report Supporting CIP Program Outread and Education

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2003-01-01

    ...) strategy for Outreach, Education, and Training. It seeks to help those interested in understanding the Defense Department's current concepts and plans for developing CIP-specific vulnerability assessments...

  2. Complexity and Vulnerability Analysis of Critical Infrastructures: A Methodological Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongliang Deng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Vulnerability analysis of network models has been widely adopted to explore the potential impacts of random disturbances, deliberate attacks, and natural disasters. However, almost all these models are based on a fixed topological structure, in which the physical properties of infrastructure components and their interrelationships are not well captured. In this paper, a new research framework is put forward to quantitatively explore and assess the complexity and vulnerability of critical infrastructure systems. Then, a case study is presented to prove the feasibility and validity of the proposed framework. After constructing metro physical network (MPN, Pajek is employed to analyze its corresponding topological properties, including degree, betweenness, average path length, network diameter, and clustering coefficient. With a comprehensive understanding of the complexity of MPN, it would be beneficial for metro system to restrain original near-miss or accidents and support decision-making in emergency situations. Moreover, through the analysis of two simulation protocols for system component failure, it is found that the MPN turned to be vulnerable under the condition that the high-degree nodes or high-betweenness edges are attacked. These findings will be conductive to offer recommendations and proposals for robust design, risk-based decision-making, and prioritization of risk reduction investment.

  3. Using field data and HSR imagery to downscale vulnerability assessment of buildings and local infrastructure facing hazards from floods and hyperconcentrated flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ettinger, Susanne; Manrique Llerena, Nélida Victoria; Thouret, Jean-Claude

    2014-05-01

    The focus of this study is the analysis of post-flood conditions along the Venezuela channel in the large city of Arequipa, south Peru, in order to identify the parameters determining vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure. Two tributaries draining a c. 11.9 km2 large catchment feed the Venezuela channel. Before joining the main Rio Chili valley to the West, it crosses the city from NE to SW. Over a total length of 5.2 km, channel depth ranges from 1.3 to 6.3 m and c. 40% of the channel sections do not exceed 5 m in width. On 8 February 2013, 123 mm of rainfall within 3 hours (monthly mean: 29.3 mm) triggered a flashflood inundating at least 0.4 km2 of urban settlements along the channel. The flood damaged 14 buildings, 23 among 53 bridges, and led to the partial collapse of main road sections paralyzing central parts of the city for at least one week. This research relies on (1) analyzing post-flood conditions and assessing damage types caused by the 8 February 2013 flood; (2) mapping of the channel characteristics (slope, wetted section, sinuosity, type of river banks, bed roughness, etc.) and buildings, bridges, and contention walls potentially exposed to inundation. Data collection and analysis have been based on high spatial resolution (HSR) images (SPOT5 2007, Google Earth Pro and BINGMAP 2012, PLEIADES 2012-2013). Field measurements (GPS, laser and geomorphologic mapping) were used to ground truth channel width, depth, as well as building outlines, contention walls and bridge characteristics (construction material, opening size, etc.). An inventory of 25 city blocks (1500 to 20000 m2; 6 to 157 houses per block) has been created in a GIS database in order to estimate their physical vulnerability. As many as 717 buildings have been surveyed along the affected drainage and classified according to four building types based on their structural characteristics. Output vulnerability maps show that the varying channel characteristics, i.e. bank type, bed

  4. HEPA Filter Vulnerability Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    GUSTAVSON, R.D.

    2000-01-01

    This assessment of High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filter vulnerability was requested by the USDOE Office of River Protection (ORP) to satisfy a DOE-HQ directive to evaluate the effect of filter degradation on the facility authorization basis assumptions. Within the scope of this assessment are ventilation system HEPA filters that are classified as Safety-Class (SC) or Safety-Significant (SS) components that perform an accident mitigation function. The objective of the assessment is to verify whether HEPA filters that perform a safety function during an accident are likely to perform as intended to limit release of hazardous or radioactive materials, considering factors that could degrade the filters. Filter degradation factors considered include aging, wetting of filters, exposure to high temperature, exposure to corrosive or reactive chemicals, and exposure to radiation. Screening and evaluation criteria were developed by a site-wide group of HVAC engineers and HEPA filter experts from published empirical data. For River Protection Project (RPP) filters, the only degradation factor that exceeded the screening threshold was for filter aging. Subsequent evaluation of the effect of filter aging on the filter strength was conducted, and the results were compared with required performance to meet the conditions assumed in the RPP Authorization Basis (AB). It was found that the reduction in filter strength due to aging does not affect the filter performance requirements as specified in the AB. A portion of the HEPA filter vulnerability assessment is being conducted by the ORP and is not part of the scope of this study. The ORP is conducting an assessment of the existing policies and programs relating to maintenance, testing, and change-out of HEPA filters used for SC/SS service. This document presents the results of a HEPA filter vulnerability assessment conducted for the River protection project as requested by the DOE Office of River Protection

  5. Challenges in the vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zio, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to provide a systematic view on the problem of vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures. Reflections are made on the inherent complexities of these systems, related challenges are identified and possible ways forward for their analysis and management are indicated. Specifically: the framework of vulnerability and risk analysis is examined in relation to its application for the protection and resilience of critical infrastructures; it is argued that the complexity of these systems is a challenging characteristic, which calls for the integration of different modeling perspectives and new approaches of analysis; examples of are given in relation to the Internet and, particularly, the electric power grid, as representative of critical infrastructures and the associated complexity; the integration of different types of analyses and methods of system modeling is put forward for capturing the inherent structural and dynamic complexities of critical infrastructures and eventually evaluating their vulnerability and risk characteristics, so that decisions on protections and resilience actions can be taken with the required confidence. - Highlights: • The problem of the protection and resilience of CIs is the focus of the work. • The vulnerability and risk analysis framework for this is critically examined. • The complexity of CIs is presented as a challenge for system modeling and analysis. • The integration of different modeling perspectives of analysis is put forward as a solution. • The extension of the analysis framework to new methods for dealing with surprises and black swans is advocated.

  6. Vulnerability of wastewater infrastructure of coastal cities to sea level ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigates the vulnerability of the wastewater collection and disposal infrastructure (i.e. pipelines and manholes, pumping stations and wastewater treatment plants) to sea-level rise in eThekwini Municipality, South Africa. By using geographical information systems (GIS) and a multi-criteria analysis considering ...

  7. Real Option Cost Vulnerability Analysis of Electrical Infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prime, Thomas; Knight, Phil

    2015-04-01

    Critical infrastructure such as electricity substations are vulnerable to various geo-hazards that arise from climate change. These geo-hazards range from increased vegetation growth to increased temperatures and flood inundation. Of all the identified geo-hazards, coastal flooding has the greatest impact, but to date has had a low probability of occurring. However, in the face of climate change, coastal flooding is likely to occur more often due to extreme water levels being experienced more frequently due to sea-level rise (SLR). Knowing what impact coastal flooding will have now and in the future on critical infrastructure such as electrical substations is important for long-term management. Using a flood inundation model, present day and future flood events have been simulated, from 1 in 1 year events up to 1 in 10,000 year events. The modelling makes an integrated assessment of impact by using sea-level and surge to simulate a storm tide. The geographical area the model covers is part of the Northwest UK coastline with a range of urban and rural areas. The ensemble of flood maps generated allows the identification of critical infrastructure exposed to coastal flooding. Vulnerability has be assessed using an Estimated Annual Damage (EAD) value. Sampling SLR annual probability distributions produces a projected "pathway" for SLR up to 2100. EAD is then calculated using a relationship derived from the flood model. Repeating the sampling process allows a distribution of EAD up to 2100 to be produced. These values are discounted to present day values using an appropriate discount rate. If the cost of building and maintain defences is also removed from this a Net Present Value (NPV) of building the defences can be calculated. This distribution of NPV can be used as part of a cost modelling process involving Real Options, A real option is the right but not obligation to undertake investment decisions. In terms of investment in critical infrastructure resilience this

  8. Vulnerability Assessments in Ethical Hacking

    OpenAIRE

    Ashiqur Rahman ,; Md. SarwarAlam Rasel; Asaduzzaman Noman; Shakh Md. Alimuzjaman Alim

    2016-01-01

    Ethical hackers use the same methods and techniques to test and bypass a system's defenses as their less-principled counterparts, but rather than taking advantage of any vulnerabilities found, they document them and provide actionable advice on how to fix them so the organization can improve its overall security. The purpose of ethical hacking is to evaluate the security of a network or system's infrastructure. It entails finding and attempting to exploit any vulnerabilities to de...

  9. The regional impacts of climate change: an assessment of vulnerability

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zinyowera, Marufu C; Moss, Richard H; Watson, R. T

    1998-01-01

    .... The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health...

  10. CALTRANS CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    The following report was developed for the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) to summarize a vulnerability assessment conducted for assets in Caltrans District 4. The assessment was developed to specifically identify the potential eff...

  11. Low carbon technology performance vs infrastructure vulnerability: analysis through the local and global properties space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, David A; Purnell, Phil; Roelich, Katy; Busch, Jonathan; Steinberger, Julia K

    2014-11-04

    Renewable energy technologies, necessary for low-carbon infrastructure networks, are being adopted to help reduce fossil fuel dependence and meet carbon mitigation targets. The evolution of these technologies has progressed based on the enhancement of technology-specific performance criteria, without explicitly considering the wider system (global) impacts. This paper presents a methodology for simultaneously assessing local (technology) and global (infrastructure) performance, allowing key technological interventions to be evaluated with respect to their effect on the vulnerability of wider infrastructure systems. We use exposure of low carbon infrastructure to critical material supply disruption (criticality) to demonstrate the methodology. A series of local performance changes are analyzed; and by extension of this approach, a method for assessing the combined criticality of multiple materials for one specific technology is proposed. Via a case study of wind turbines at both the material (magnets) and technology (turbine generators) levels, we demonstrate that analysis of a given intervention at different levels can lead to differing conclusions regarding the effect on vulnerability. Infrastructure design decisions should take a systemic approach; without these multilevel considerations, strategic goals aimed to help meet low-carbon targets, that is, through long-term infrastructure transitions, could be significantly jeopardized.

  12. Southern African Coastal vulnerability assessment

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rautenbach, C

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available or business. The CSIR coastal systems group uses specialist skills in coastal engineering, geographic engineering systems and numerical modelling to assess and map vulnerable coastal ecosystems to develop specific adaptation measures and coastal protection...

  13. Managing a network vulnerability assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R; Blackley, John A

    2003-01-01

    Managing a Network Vulnerability Assessment provides a formal framework for finding and eliminating network security threats, ensuring that no vulnerabilities are overlooked. This thorough overview focuses on the steps necessary to successfully manage an assessment, including the development of a scope statement, the understanding and proper use of assessment methodology, the creation of an expert assessment team, and the production of a valuable response report. The book also details what commercial, freeware, and shareware tools are available, how they work, and how to use them.

  14. Digital divide, biometeorological data infrastructures and human vulnerability definition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fdez-Arroyabe, Pablo; Lecha Estela, Luis; Schimt, Falko

    2018-05-01

    The design and implementation of any climate-related health service, nowadays, imply avoiding the digital divide as it means having access and being able to use complex technological devices, massive meteorological data, user's geographic location and biophysical information. This article presents the co-creation, in detail, of a biometeorological data infrastructure, which is a complex platform formed by multiple components: a mainframe, a biometeorological model called Pronbiomet, a relational database management system, data procedures, communication protocols, different software packages, users, datasets and a mobile application. The system produces four daily world maps of the partial density of the atmospheric oxygen and collects user feedback on their health condition. The infrastructure is shown to be a useful tool to delineate individual vulnerability to meteorological changes as one key factor in the definition of any biometeorological risk. This technological approach to study weather-related health impacts is the initial seed for the definition of biometeorological profiles of persons, and for the future development of customized climate services for users in the near future.

  15. Digital divide, biometeorological data infrastructures and human vulnerability definition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fdez-Arroyabe, Pablo; Lecha Estela, Luis; Schimt, Falko

    2017-06-01

    The design and implementation of any climate-related health service, nowadays, imply avoiding the digital divide as it means having access and being able to use complex technological devices, massive meteorological data, user's geographic location and biophysical information. This article presents the co-creation, in detail, of a biometeorological data infrastructure, which is a complex platform formed by multiple components: a mainframe, a biometeorological model called Pronbiomet, a relational database management system, data procedures, communication protocols, different software packages, users, datasets and a mobile application. The system produces four daily world maps of the partial density of the atmospheric oxygen and collects user feedback on their health condition. The infrastructure is shown to be a useful tool to delineate individual vulnerability to meteorological changes as one key factor in the definition of any biometeorological risk. This technological approach to study weather-related health impacts is the initial seed for the definition of biometeorological profiles of persons, and for the future development of customized climate services for users in the near future.

  16. Digital divide, biometeorological data infrastructures and human vulnerability definition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fdez-Arroyabe, Pablo; Lecha Estela, Luis; Schimt, Falko

    2018-05-01

    The design and implementation of any climate-related health service, nowadays, imply avoiding the digital divide as it means having access and being able to use complex technological devices, massive meteorological data, user's geographic location and biophysical information. This article presents the co-creation, in detail, of a biometeorological data infrastructure, which is a complex platform formed by multiple components: a mainframe, a biometeorological model called Pronbiomet, a relational database management system, data procedures, communication protocols, different software packages, users, datasets and a mobile application. The system produces four daily world maps of the partial density of the atmospheric oxygen and collects user feedback on their health condition. The infrastructure is shown to be a useful tool to delineate individual vulnerability to meteorological changes as one key factor in the definition of any biometeorological risk. This technological approach to study weather-related health impacts is the initial seed for the definition of biometeorological profiles of persons, and for the future development of customized climate services for users in the near future.

  17. Vulnerability assessment of critical infrastructure : activity 2 final report : information on SCADA systems and other security monitoring techniques used in oil and gas pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gu, G.P.; Revie, R.W. [Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada). CANMET Materials Technology Laboratory

    2008-03-15

    This study evaluated various technologies for monitoring the security of remote pipeline infrastructure. The technologies included flow, pressure and mass variations; negative pressure waves; dynamic and statistical modelling; hydrocarbon-sensitive cables; fiber optic systems; infrared thermography; spectral imaging; and synthetic aperture radar and radio frequency identification methods. A brief outline of the technologies was provided, along with suggestions for integrating the technology with other commercially available tools designed to manage security and reduce risk. The study demonstrated that many monitoring technologies are suitable for detecting pipeline leaks and identifying third party intrusions. A combination of different methods may provide optimal security and accuracy in leak detection and location. Automatic range and plausibility checks can be used to enhance system security and to recognize invalid changes in measuring devices and poorly parameterized media. Detailed reviews of the technologies were included in 2 appendices. 28 refs., 2 appendices.

  18. Vulnerability assessment of critical infrastructure : activity 2 progress report : information of SCADA systems and other security monitoring systems used in oil and gas pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gu, G.P. [Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada). CANMET Materials Technology Laboratory

    2007-12-15

    Many pipelines are located in remote regions and subjected to harsh environmental conditions. Damage to pipelines can have significant economic and environmental impacts. This paper discussed the use of supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems to monitor and control oil and gas pipeline infrastructure. SCADA systems are a real time, distributed computerized system with an intelligent capability for condition identification and fault diagnosis. SCADA systems can be used to capture thousands of miles of pipeline system process data and distribute it to pipeline operators, whose work stations are networked with the SCADA central host computer. SCADA architectures include monolithic, distributed, and networked systems that can be distributed across wide area networks (WANs). SCADA security strategies must be implemented to ensure corporate network security. Case studies of SCADA systems currently used by oil and gas operators in Alberta were also presented. 15 refs., 1 fig.

  19. The SAVI vulnerability assessment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winblad, A.E.

    1987-01-01

    The assessment model ''Systematic Analysis of Vulnerability to Intrusion'' (SAVI) presented in this report is a PC-based path analysis model. It can provide estimates of protection system effectiveness (or vulnerability) against a spectrum of outsider threats including collusion with an insider adversary. It calculates one measure of system effectiveness, the probability of interruption P(I), for all potential adversary paths. SAVI can perform both theft and sabotage vulnerability analyses. For theft, the analysis is based on the assumption that adversaries should be interrupted either before they can accomplish removal of the target material from its normal location or removal from the site boundary. For sabotage, the analysis is based on the assumption that adversaries should be interrupted before completion of their sabotage task

  20. Assessing European wild fire vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oehler, F.; Oliveira, S.; Barredo, J. I.; Camia, A.; Ayanz, J. San Miguel; Pettenella, D.; Mavsar, R.

    2012-04-01

    Wild fire vulnerability is a measure of potential socio-economic damage caused by a fire in a specific area. As such it is an important component of long-term fire risk management, helping policy-makers take informed decisions about adequate expenditures for fire prevention and suppression, and to target those regions at highest risk. This paper presents a first approach to assess wild fire vulnerability at the European level. A conservative approach was chosen that assesses the cost of restoring the previous land cover after a potential fire. Based on the CORINE Land Cover, a restoration cost was established for each land cover class at country level, and an average restoration time was assigned according to the recovery capacity of the land cover. The damage caused by fire was then assessed by discounting the cost of restoring the previous land cover over the restoration period. Three different vulnerability scenarios were considered assuming low, medium and high fire severity causing different levels of damage. Over Europe, the potential damage of wild land fires ranges from 10 - 13, 732 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for low fire severity, 32 - 45,772 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for medium fire severity and 54 - 77,812 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for high fire severity. The least vulnerable are natural grasslands, moors and heathland and sclerophyllous vegetation, while the highest cost occurs for restoring broad-leaved forest. Preliminary validation comparing these estimates with official damage assessments for past fires shows reasonable results. The restoration cost approach allows for a straightforward, data extensive assessment of fire vulnerability at European level. A disadvantage is the inherent simplification of the evaluation procedure with the underestimation of non-markets goods and services. Thus, a second approach has been developed, valuing individual wild land goods and services and assessing their annual flow which is lost for a certain period of time in case of a fire event. However

  1. Importance of biometrics to addressing vulnerabilities of the U.S. infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arndt, Craig M.; Hall, Nathaniel A.

    2004-08-01

    Human identification technologies are important threat countermeasures in minimizing select infrastructure vulnerabilities. Properly targeted countermeasures should be selected and integrated into an overall security solution based on disciplined analysis and modeling. Available data on infrastructure value, threat intelligence, and system vulnerabilities are carefully organized, analyzed and modeled. Prior to design and deployment of an effective countermeasure; the proper role and appropriateness of technology in addressing the overall set of vulnerabilities is established. Deployment of biometrics systems, as with other countermeasures, introduces potentially heightened vulnerabilities into the system. Heightened vulnerabilities may arise from both the newly introduced system complexities and an unfocused understanding of the set of vulnerabilities impacted by the new countermeasure. The countermeasure's own inherent vulnerabilities and those introduced by the system's integration with the existing system are analyzed and modeled to determine the overall vulnerability impact. The United States infrastructure is composed of government and private assets. The infrastructure is valued by their potential impact on several components: human physical safety, physical/information replacement/repair cost, potential contribution to future loss (criticality in weapons production), direct productivity output, national macro-economic output/productivity, and information integrity. These components must be considered in determining the overall impact of an infrastructure security breach. Cost/benefit analysis is then incorporated in the security technology deployment decision process. Overall security risks based on system vulnerabilities and threat intelligence determines areas of potential benefit. Biometric countermeasures are often considered when additional security at intended points of entry would minimize vulnerabilities.

  2. Vulnerability Identification Errors in Security Risk Assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Taubenberger, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    At present, companies rely on information technology systems to achieve their business objectives, making them vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. Information security risk assessments help organisations to identify their risks and vulnerabilities. An accurate identification of risks and vulnerabilities is a challenge, because the input data is uncertain. So-called ’vulnerability identification errors‘ can occur if false positive vulnerabilities are identified, or if vulnerabilities remain u...

  3. Homeland Security -- Reducing the Vulnerability of Public and Private Information Infrastructures to Terrorism: An Overview

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Seifert, Jeffrey W

    2002-01-01

    This report assesses the impact of the September 11, 2001 attacks on public and private information infrastructures in the context of critical infrastructure protection, continuity of operations (COOP...

  4. Transdisciplinary knowledge integration : cases from integrated assessment and vulnerability assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hinkel, J.

    2008-01-01

    Keywords: climate change, integrated assessment, knowledge integration, transdisciplinary research, vulnerability, vulnerability assessment.
    This thesis explores how transdisciplinary knowledge integration can be facilitated in the context of integrated assessments and vulnerability

  5. Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

  6. Assessing flash flood vulnerability using a multi-vulnerability approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karagiorgos Konstantinos

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of flood risk assessment, while the understanding of hazard and exposure has significantly improved over the last years, knowledge on vulnerability remains one of the challenges. Current approaches in vulnerability research are characterised by a division between social scientists and natural scientists. In order to close this gap, we present an approach that combines information on physical and social vulnerability in order to merge information on the susceptibility of elements at risk and society. With respect to physical vulnerability, the study is based on local-scale vulnerability models using nonlinear regression approaches. Modified Weibull distributions were fit to the data in order to represent the relationship between process magnitude and degree of loss. With respect to social vulnerability we conducted a door-to-door survey which resulted in particular insights on flood risk awareness and resilience strategies of exposed communities. In general, both physical and social vulnerability were low in comparison with other European studies, which may result from (a specific building regulations in the four Mediterranean test sites as well as general design principles leading to low structural susceptibility of elements at risk, and (b relatively low social vulnerability of citizens exposed. As a result it is shown that a combination of different perspectives of vulnerability will lead to a better understanding of exposure and capacities in flood risk management.

  7. Vulnerability of wastewater infrastructure of coastal cities to sea level ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    to sea level rise: A South African case study ... developing countries such as South Africa, and for their coastal cities. ... of the wastewater pipeline network is around 8 790 km and .... propensity for regional infrastructure to malfunction under.

  8. Europe’s infrastructure vulnerabilities : comparisons and connections

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hommels, A.; Högselius, P.; Kaijser, A.; Vleuten, van der E.B.A.; Högselius, P.; Hommels, A.; Kaijser, A.; Vleuten, van der E.B.A.

    2013-01-01

    This book has investigated the historical shaping of critical transnational infras tructure in Europe, its associated vulnerabilities, and its intertwinement with broader processes of European integration and fragmentation. The chapters in the three parts have scrutinized these issues from different

  9. Roads and associated structures: infrastructure impacts, vulnerabilities and design considerations for future climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tighe, S.L.; Lapp, D.

    2009-01-01

    This paper provides a summary of the findings from the literature scan, directed at identifying engineering literature that relates to road and associated infrastructure vulnerabilities in light of climate change. The scan was carried out over the course of several weeks in late 2007/early 2008. Although many Canadian transportation agencies are thinking about the potential vulnerabilities and associated engineering impacts, very few agencies have completed any formal analysis at this time. A few agencies currently have some on-going activities that are expected to be completed in 2008, but the majority have not started to examine the engineering aspects of how the change will need to be addressed in design, construction and maintenance. Although climate change and it's impact on transportation and specifically roads and associated structures is appearing in various reports and documents across Canada, available detailed information on engineering impacts was limited to nonexistent. This paper includes a brief introduction and background on climate change in general and the related predicted impacts on road infrastructure and associated structures, with primary focus on bridges. These sections are followed by project scope and objectives and methodology of assessment. The summary of findings provides some more specific details and has been prepared using available public agency documents that were located during the aforementioned search. Finally a few closing comments are provided. (author)

  10. Integrating socio-economic and infrastructural dimension to reveal hazard vulnerability of coastal districts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazumdar, Jublee; Paul, Saikat

    2015-04-01

    Losses of life and property due to natural hazards have intensified in the past decade, motivating an alteration of disaster management away from simple post event resettlement and rehabilitation. The degree of exposure to hazard for a homogeneous population is not entirely reliant upon nearness to the source of hazard event. Socio-economic factors and infrastructural capability play an important role in determining the vulnerability of a place. This study investigates the vulnerability of eastern coastal states of India from tropical cyclones. The record of past hundred years shows that the physical vulnerability of eastern coastal states is four times as compared to the western coastal states in terms of frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. Nevertheless, these physical factors played an imperative role in determining the vulnerability of eastern coast. However, the socio-economic and infrastructural factors influence the risk of exposure exponentially. Inclusion of these indicators would provide better insight regarding the preparedness and resilience of settlements to hazard events. In this regard, the present study is an effort to develop an Integrated Vulnerability Model (IVM) based on socio-economic and infrastructural factors for the districts of eastern coastal states of India. A method is proposed for quantifying the socio-economic and infrastructural vulnerability to tropical cyclone in these districts. The variables included in the study are extracted from Census of India, 2011 at district level administrative unit. In the analysis, a large number of variables are reduced to a smaller number of factors by using principal component analysis that represents the socio-economic and infrastructure vulnerability to tropical cyclone. Subsequently, the factor scores in socio-economic Vulnerability Index (SeVI) and Infrastructure Vulnerability Index (InVI) are standardized from 0 to 1, indicating the range from low to high vulnerability. The factor

  11. Developing new methodology for nuclear power plants vulnerability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostadinov, Venceslav

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → Paper presents new methodology for vulnerability assessment of nuclear power plants. → First universal quantitative risks assessment model for terrorist attack on a NPPs. → New model enhance security, reliability and safe operation of all energy infrastructure. → Significant research benefits: increased NPPs security, reliability and availability. → Useful new tool for PRA application to evaluation of terrorist threats on NPPs. - Abstract: The fundamental aim of an efficient regulatory emergency preparedness and response system is to provide sustained emergency readiness and to prevent emergency situations and accidents. But when an event occurs, the regulatory mission is to mitigate consequences and to protect people and the environment against nuclear and radiological damage. The regulatory emergency response system, which would be activated in the case of a nuclear and/or radiological emergency and release of radioactivity to the environment, is an important element of a comprehensive national regulatory system of nuclear and radiation safety. In the past, national emergency systems explicitly did not include vulnerability assessments of the critical nuclear infrastructure as an important part of a comprehensive preparedness framework. But after the huge terrorist attack on 11/09/2001, decision-makers became aware that critical nuclear infrastructure could also be an attractive target to terrorism, with the purpose of using the physical and radioactive properties of the nuclear material to cause mass casualties, property damage, and detrimental economic and/or environmental impacts. The necessity to evaluate critical nuclear infrastructure vulnerability to threats like human errors, terrorist attacks and natural disasters, as well as preparation of emergency response plans with estimation of optimized costs, are of vital importance for assurance of safe nuclear facilities operation and national security. In this paper presented

  12. Assessing the Security Vulnerabilities of Correctional Facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrison, G.S.; Spencer, D.S.

    1998-10-27

    The National Institute of Justice has tasked their Satellite Facility at Sandia National Laboratories and their Southeast Regional Technology Center in Charleston, South Carolina to devise new procedures and tools for helping correctional facilities to assess their security vulnerabilities. Thus, a team is visiting selected correctional facilities and performing vulnerability assessments. A vulnerability assessment helps to identi~ the easiest paths for inmate escape, for introduction of contraband such as drugs or weapons, for unexpected intrusion fi-om outside of the facility, and for the perpetration of violent acts on other inmates and correctional employees, In addition, the vulnerability assessment helps to quantify the security risks for the facility. From these initial assessments will come better procedures for performing vulnerability assessments in general at other correctional facilities, as well as the development of tools to assist with the performance of such vulnerability assessments.

  13. Vulnerability analysis of the wireless infrastructures to intentional electromagnetic interference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Beek, G.S.

    2016-01-01

    Contemporary society is greatly dependent upon a set of critical infrastructures (CIs) providing security and quality of life. Electronic systems control the safety-critical functioning of most CIs, and these electronic systems are susceptible to electromagnetic interference (EMI). A threat to the

  14. Network Vulnerability and Risk Assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Alward, Randy G; Carley, Kathleen M; Madsen, Fredrik; Taylor, Vincent K; Vandenberghe, Grant

    2006-01-01

    .... The break out group discussed vulnerability presentation needs common across various application domains, particularly in support of network discovery and network analysis tasks in those domains...

  15. Critical location identification and vulnerability analysis of interdependent infrastructure systems under spatially localized attacks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouyang, Min

    2016-01-01

    Infrastructure systems are usually spatially distributed in a wide area and are subject to many types of hazards. For each type of hazards, modeling their direct impact on infrastructure components and analyzing their induced system-level vulnerability are important for identifying mitigation strategies. This paper mainly studies spatially localized attacks that a set of infrastructure components located within or crossing a circle shaped spatially localized area is subject to damage while other components do not directly fail. For this type of attacks, taking interdependent power and gas systems in Harris County, Texas, USA as an example, this paper proposes an approach to exactly identify critical locations in interdependent infrastructure systems and make pertinent vulnerability analysis. Results show that (a) infrastructure interdependencies and attack radius largely affect the position of critical locations; (b) spatially localized attacks cause less vulnerability than equivalent random failures; (c) in most values of attack radius critical locations identified by considering only node failures do not change when considering both node and edge failures in the attack area; (d) for many values of attack radius critical locations identified by topology-based model are also critical from the flow-based perspective. - Highlights: • We propose a method to identify critical locations in interdependent infrastructures. • Geographical interdependencies and attack radius largely affect critical locations. • Localized attacks cause less vulnerability than equivalent random failures. • Whether considering both node and edge failures affects critical locations. • Topology-based critical locations are also critical from flow-based perspective.

  16. Assessing the Climate Resilience of Transport Infrastructure Investments in Tanzania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, J. W.; Pant, R.; Koks, E.; Thacker, S.; Russell, T.

    2017-12-01

    Whilst there is an urgent need for infrastructure investment in developing countries, there is a risk that poorly planned and built infrastructure will introduce new vulnerabilities. As climate change increases the magnitudes and frequency of natural hazard events, incidence of disruptive infrastructure failures are likely to become more frequent. Therefore, it is important that infrastructure planning and investment is underpinned by climate risk assessment that can inform adaptation planning. Tanzania's rapid economic growth is placing considerable strain on the country's transportation infrastructure (roads, railways, shipping and aviation); especially at the port of Dar es Salaam and its linking transport corridors. A growing number of natural hazard events, in particular flooding, are impacting the reliability of this already over-used network. Here we report on new methodology to analyse vulnerabilities and risks due to failures of key locations in the intermodal transport network of Tanzania, including strategic connectivity to neighboring countries. To perform the national-scale risk analysis we will utilize a system-of-systems methodology. The main components of this general risk assessment, when applied to transportation systems, include: (1) Assembling data on: spatially coherent extreme hazards and intermodal transportation networks; (2) Intersecting hazards with transport network models to initiate failure conditions that trigger failure propagation across interdependent networks; (3) Quantifying failure outcomes in terms of social impacts (customers/passengers disrupted) and/or macroeconomic consequences (across multiple sectors); and (4) Simulating, testing and collecting multiple failure scenarios to perform an exhaustive risk assessment in terms of probabilities and consequences. The methodology is being used to pinpoint vulnerability and reduce climate risks to transport infrastructure investments.

  17. Vulnerability of Concentrated Critical Infrastructure: Background and Policy Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-01-26

    absenteeism among workers during the peak weeks of a regional outbreak.26 Concentrations of livestock may be similarly vulnerable to infectious disease...Turning Capital to Wealth: A Ranking of U.S. Utilities.” Public Utilities Fortnightly. Dec. 1999. 43 M. Singer, and K. Turnipseed, “ Curing Capital...careful and complex CRS-18 64 R.C. Mireles, “A Cure for West Coast Congestion.” Logistics Today. Jan. 2005. 65 Congressional Budget Office (CBO

  18. Critical infrastructure systems of systems assessment methodology.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sholander, Peter E.; Darby, John L.; Phelan, James M.; Smith, Bryan; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Walter, Andrew; Varnado, G. Bruce; Depoy, Jennifer Mae

    2006-10-01

    Assessing the risk of malevolent attacks against large-scale critical infrastructures requires modifications to existing methodologies that separately consider physical security and cyber security. This research has developed a risk assessment methodology that explicitly accounts for both physical and cyber security, while preserving the traditional security paradigm of detect, delay, and respond. This methodology also accounts for the condition that a facility may be able to recover from or mitigate the impact of a successful attack before serious consequences occur. The methodology uses evidence-based techniques (which are a generalization of probability theory) to evaluate the security posture of the cyber protection systems. Cyber threats are compared against cyber security posture using a category-based approach nested within a path-based analysis to determine the most vulnerable cyber attack path. The methodology summarizes the impact of a blended cyber/physical adversary attack in a conditional risk estimate where the consequence term is scaled by a ''willingness to pay'' avoidance approach.

  19. A Comprehensive Assessment Model for Critical Infrastructure Protection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Häyhtiö Markus

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available International business demands seamless service and IT-infrastructure throughout the entire supply chain. However, dependencies between different parts of this vulnerable ecosystem form a fragile web. Assessment of the financial effects of any abnormalities in any part of the network is demanded in order to protect this network in a financially viable way. Contractual environment between the actors in a supply chain, different business domains and functions requires a management model, which enables a network wide protection for critical infrastructure. In this paper authors introduce such a model. It can be used to assess financial differences between centralized and decentralized protection of critical infrastructure. As an end result of this assessment business resilience to unknown threats can be improved across the entire supply chain.

  20. Network Vulnerability and Risk Assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Alward, Randy G; Carley, Kathleen M; Madsen, Fredrik; Taylor, Vincent K; Vandenberghe, Grant

    2006-01-01

    To help understand a network and its ability to continue operating when under attack, the break out group discussed issues that need to be considered when presenting network vulnerability information...

  1. Chemical and radiological vulnerability assessment in urban areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stojanović Božidar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Cities and towns are faced with various types of threat from the extraordinary events involving chemical and radiological materials as exemplified by major chemical accidents, radiological incidents, fires, explosions, traffic accidents, terrorist attacks, etc. On the other hand, many sensitive or vulnerable assets exist within cities, such as: settlements, infrastructures, hospitals, schools, churches, businesses, government, and others. Besides emergency planning, the land use planning also represents an important tool for prevention or reduction of damages on people and other assets due to unwanted events. This paper considers development of method for inclusion vulnerability assessment in land use planning with objective to assess and limit the consequences in cities of likely accidents involving hazardous materials. We made preliminary assessment of criticality and vulnerability of the assets within Belgrade city area in respect to chemical sites and transportation roads that can be exposed to chemical accidents, or terrorist attacks.

  2. Stress Tests and Vulnerability Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallner, A.; Lorenz, P.

    2012-01-01

    After the accident in Fukushima, nuclear safety as topic in anti-nuclear work has gained importance within the Joint Project countries. Therefore, nuclear safety and in particular the activities of the European stress tests were chosen to be the main focus of the Joint Project 2011/2012 as well as the common theme of the national projects. This brochure describes: A) Vulnerability Assessment A critical review of the EU Nuclear Stress Tests in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Ukraine is presented in chapter 1. The review details the main weaknesses identified within the stress tests. Important shortcomings not mentioned in the stress tests reports are also discussed. These evaluations do not claim to be exhaustive, but the findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of safety and risk of nuclear power plants in Europe. B) Transparency of the stress tests In chapter 2 the experience of the Joint Project NGOs concerning transparency of the stress tests is presented. The information is not meant to be an evaluation of the transparency of the stress tests in general – such an evaluation is not possible within the scope of this brochure. The evaluation aims to show activities concerning stress tests and how they were conceived by the JP NGOs. Some recommendations for improvement are given. C) Safety focus Within the main topic “nuclear safety” of the Joint Project 2011/2012 the NGOs of each JP country selected a special safety relevant topic, which is/was of particular interest in their country: Bulgaria: The short story of Belene NPP – The victory – Key points of the campaign against the nuclear power plant Romania: Risks of the CANDU reactor design Czech Republic: Results of the conference “Power Plant Load Testing: Safety Inspection or Propaganda?“ Slovakia: Safety deficits of the NPP Mochovce These safety relevant issues are discussed in separate sections within the brochure at hand. (author)

  3. Stress Tests and Vulnerability Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wallner, A. [Austrian Institute of Ecology, Vienna (Austria); Lorenz, P. [ed.; Becker, O. [eds.; Weber, U. [Austrian Institute of Ecology, Vienna (Austria)

    2012-07-01

    After the accident in Fukushima, nuclear safety as topic in anti-nuclear work has gained importance within the Joint Project countries. Therefore, nuclear safety and in particular the activities of the European stress tests were chosen to be the main focus of the Joint Project 2011/2012 as well as the common theme of the national projects. This brochure describes: A) Vulnerability Assessment A critical review of the EU Nuclear Stress Tests in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Ukraine is presented in chapter 1. The review details the main weaknesses identified within the stress tests. Important shortcomings not mentioned in the stress tests reports are also discussed. These evaluations do not claim to be exhaustive, but the findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of safety and risk of nuclear power plants in Europe. B) Transparency of the stress tests In chapter 2 the experience of the Joint Project NGOs concerning transparency of the stress tests is presented. The information is not meant to be an evaluation of the transparency of the stress tests in general – such an evaluation is not possible within the scope of this brochure. The evaluation aims to show activities concerning stress tests and how they were conceived by the JP NGOs. Some recommendations for improvement are given. C) Safety focus Within the main topic “nuclear safety” of the Joint Project 2011/2012 the NGOs of each JP country selected a special safety relevant topic, which is/was of particular interest in their country: Bulgaria: The short story of Belene NPP – The victory – Key points of the campaign against the nuclear power plant Romania: Risks of the CANDU reactor design Czech Republic: Results of the conference “Power Plant Load Testing: Safety Inspection or Propaganda?“ Slovakia: Safety deficits of the NPP Mochovce These safety relevant issues are discussed in separate sections within the brochure at hand. (author)

  4. Assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidsvig, Unni Marie K.; Kristensen, Krister; Vidar Vangelsten, Bjørn

    2017-03-01

    This paper proposes a model for assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures, with a focus on the indirect losses and loss of stability for the population relying on the infrastructure. The model prescribes a three-level analysis with increasing level of detail, moving from qualitative to quantitative analysis. The focus is on a methodology for semi-quantitative analyses to be performed at the second level. The purpose of this type of analysis is to perform a screening of the scenarios of natural hazards threatening the infrastructures, identifying the most critical scenarios and investigating the need for further analyses (third level). The proposed semi-quantitative methodology considers the frequency of the natural hazard, different aspects of vulnerability, including the physical vulnerability of the infrastructure itself, and the societal dependency on the infrastructure. An indicator-based approach is applied, ranking the indicators on a relative scale according to pre-defined ranking criteria. The proposed indicators, which characterise conditions that influence the probability of an infrastructure malfunctioning caused by a natural event, are defined as (1) robustness and buffer capacity, (2) level of protection, (3) quality/level of maintenance and renewal, (4) adaptability and quality of operational procedures and (5) transparency/complexity/degree of coupling. Further indicators describe conditions influencing the socio-economic consequences of the infrastructure malfunctioning, such as (1) redundancy and/or substitution, (2) cascading effects and dependencies, (3) preparedness and (4) early warning, emergency response and measures. The aggregated risk estimate is a combination of the semi-quantitative vulnerability indicators, as well as quantitative estimates of the frequency of the natural hazard, the potential duration of the infrastructure malfunctioning (e.g. depending on the required restoration effort) and the number of users of

  5. Transnational infrastructure vulnerability : the historical shaping of the 2006 European 'blackout'

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vleuten, van der E.B.A.; Lagendijk, V.C.

    2010-01-01

    The "European Blackout" of 4 November 2006 is a key reference in current debates on transnational electricity infrastructure vulnerability and governance. Several commentators have observed that to understand what happened, one must look at history. Our paper answers this call and demonstrates how

  6. Interdependency control : compensation strategies for the inherent vulnerability of critical infrastructure networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mao, D.; Sotoodeh, M.; Monu, K.; Marti, J.R.; Srivastava, K.D.

    2009-01-01

    Today's increasingly interacting national critical infrastructures (NCIs) can tolerate most stochastic local disturbances. However, they are extremely fragile under global disturbances, as the latter may either push the whole system into a critical state or reveal many unexpected hidden interdependencies, inducing or triggering cascading failures among all possible layers. This robust yet fragile duality is an inherent vulnerability of modern infrastructures. It is therefore expected that weather-related disasters will be more frequent under a changing climate. This paper proposed an interdependency control strategy (ICS) that would maintain the survival of the most critical services, and compensate for this inherent vulnerability during emergency states. The paper also proposed a generalized adjacency matrix (GAM) to represent the physical interdependencies intra/inter of various infrastructure networks. The vulnerable section in the network can be identified, based on computed results of GAM, number of islands in the network, and influence domain(s) of each component. These features render ICS more effective and convincing. Last, the paper proposed a survivability index for isolated sub-networks and described relevant measures for improving this index during the four phases of emergency management. It was concluded that the proposed strategy is an effective means to reduce the inherent vulnerability and increase the resiliency of these critical infrastructures networks. 20 refs., 5 figs

  7. Assessing vulnerability of urban African communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson Nyed, Patrik; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie; Herslund, Lise Byskov

    2014-01-01

    East African cities are in the process of assessing their vulnerabilities to climate change, but face difficulties in capturing the complexity of the various facets of vulnerability. This holistic approach, captures four different dimensions of vulnerability to flooding - Assets, Institutions......, Attitudes and the Physical environment, with Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, as a case city. The methodology is actively involving the expertise of the stakeholders, and uses GIS to analyze and compile the data. The final output is presented as a comprehensible map, delineating the varying vulnerability...

  8. Climate change vulnerability assessment in Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binita KC; J. Marshall Shepherd; Cassandra Johnson Gaither

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is occurring in the Southeastern United States, and one manifestation is changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events. A vulnerability assessment is performed in the state of Georgia (United States) at the county level from 1975 to 2012 in decadal increments. Climate change vulnerability is typically measured as a function of exposure to physical...

  9. Concepts to Analyze the Vulnerability of Critical Infrastructures - Taking into account Cybernetics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric Petit

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Critical Infrastructures (CIs are complex systems. For their operations, these infrastructures are increasingly using Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA systems. Management practices are therefore highly dependent on the cyber tools, but also on the data needed to make these tools work. Therefore, CIs are greatly vulnerable to degradation of data. In this context, this paper aims at presenting the fundamentals of a method for analyzing the vulnerabilities of CIs towards the use of cyber data. By characterizing cyber vulnerability of CIs, it will be possible to improve the resilience of these networks and to foster a proactive approach to risk management not only by considering cybernetics from a cyber-attack point of view but also by considering the consequences of the use of corrupted data.

  10. A synthesized biophysical and social vulnerability assessment for Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yung-Jaan

    2017-11-01

    Taiwan, located in the Western Pacific, is a country that is one of the most vulnerable to disasters that are associated with the changing climate; it is located within the Ring of Fire, which is the most geologically active region in the world. The environmental and geological conditions in Taiwan are sensitive and vulnerable to such disasters. Owing to increasing urbanization in Taiwan, floods and climate-related disasters have taken an increasing toll on human lives. As global warming accelerates the rising of sea levels and increasing of the frequency of extreme weather events, disasters will continue to affect socioeconomic development and human conditions. Under such circumstances, researchers and policymakers alike must recognize the importance of providing useful knowledge concerning vulnerability, disaster recovery and resilience. Strategies for reducing vulnerability and climate-related disaster risks and for increasing resilience involve preparedness, mitigation and adaptation. In the last two decades, extreme climate events have caused severe flash floods, debris flows, landslides, and other disasters and have had negative effects of many sectors, including agriculture, infrastructure and health. Since climate change is expected to have a continued impact on socio-economic development, this work develops a vulnerability assessment framework that integrates both biophysical and social vulnerability and supports synthesized vulnerability analyses to identify vulnerable areas in Taiwan. Owing to its geographical, geological and climatic features, Taiwan is susceptible to earthquakes, typhoons, droughts and various induced disasters. Therefore, Taiwan has the urgent task of establishing a framework for assessing vulnerability as a planning and policy tool that can be used to identify not only the regions that require special attention but also hotspots in which efforts should be made to reduce vulnerability and the risk of climate-related disaster. To

  11. Urban Vulnerability Assessment Using AHP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Rezaei

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Physical expansion of urban areas and cities is of great importance nowadays. Irreparable damages will thus be caused by lack of proper planning against natural disasters. Crisis management will therefore guide through prevention, preparedness, disaster relief, and recovery by planning an appropriate program. Methodology. Principal processes of crisis management against earthquake in Iran were evaluated and discussed. Multicriteria earthquake crisis management was then proposed by means of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. Vulnerability of 19 urban areas in Qazvin city was studied and analyzed as a case study. Three main criteria were considered as “physical dimensions and physical vulnerability texture,” “the amount of urban texture responsibility to aid after crisis,” and “possibility of city reversibility after the crisis.” These criteria were divided into 20 subcriteria which were prioritized by a questionnaire survey. Findings. “High population density,” “urban texture of old and repairable buildings,” “lack of relief and medical services,” “a few organic texture areas,” “sidewalks with less than 6 meters width in the region,” and “lack of open spaces in the area” were concluded to be the most important reasons causing high vulnerability of urban texture in Qazvin city.

  12. Collision and displacement vulnerability among marine birds of the California Current System associated with offshore wind energy infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Josh; Kelsey, Emily C.; Felis, Jonathan J.; Pereksta, David M.

    2016-10-27

    With growing climate change concerns and energy constraints, there is an increasing need for renewable energy sources within the United States and globally. Looking forward, offshore wind-energy infrastructure (OWEI) has the potential to produce a significant proportion of the power needed to reach our Nation’s renewable energy goal. Offshore wind-energy sites can capitalize open areas within Federal waters that have persistent, high winds with large energy production potential. Although there are few locations in the California Current System (CCS) where it would be acceptable to build pile-mounted wind turbines in waters less than 50 m deep, the development of technology able to support deep-water OWEI (>200 m depth) could enable wind-energy production in the CCS. As with all human-use of the marine environment, understanding the potential impacts of wind-energy infrastructure on the marine ecosystem is an integral part of offshore wind-energy research and planning. Herein, we present a comprehensive database to quantify marine bird vulnerability to potential OWEI in the CCS (see https://doi.org/10.5066/F79C6VJ0). These data were used to quantify marine bird vulnerabilities at the population level. For 81 marine bird species present in the CCS, we created three vulnerability indices: Population Vulnerability, Collision Vulnerability, and Displacement Vulnerability. Population Vulnerability was used as a scaling factor to generate two comprehensive indicies: Population Collision Vulnerability (PCV) and Population Displacement Vulnerability (PDV). Within the CCS, pelicans, terns (Forster’s [Sterna forsteri], Caspian [Hydroprogne caspia], Elegant [Thalasseus elegans], and Least Tern [Sternula antillarum]), gulls (Western [Larus occidentalis] and Bonaparte’s Gull [Chroicocephalus philadelphia]), South Polar Skua (Stercorarius maccormicki), and Brandt’s Cormorant (Phalacrocorax penicillatus) had the greatest PCV scores. Brown Pelican (Pelicanus occidentalis

  13. evaluation of models for assessing groundwater vulnerability

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DR. AMINU

    applied models for groundwater vulnerability assessment mapping. The appraoches .... The overall 'pollution potential' or DRASTIC index is established by applying the formula: DRASTIC Index: ... affected by the structure of the soil surface.

  14. Methodology for prioritizing cyber-vulnerable critical infrastructure equipment and mitigation strategies.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Lon Andrew; Stinebaugh, Jennifer A.

    2010-04-01

    The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), National Cyber Security Division (NSCD), Control Systems Security Program (CSSP), contracted Sandia National Laboratories to develop a generic methodology for prioritizing cyber-vulnerable, critical infrastructure assets and the development of mitigation strategies for their loss or compromise. The initial project has been divided into three discrete deliverables: (1) A generic methodology report suitable to all Critical Infrastructure and Key Resource (CIKR) Sectors (this report); (2) a sector-specific report for Electrical Power Distribution; and (3) a sector-specific report for the water sector, including generation, water treatment, and wastewater systems. Specific reports for the water and electric sectors are available from Sandia National Laboratories.

  15. Vulnerability assessment at a national level in Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsereteli, N.; Arabidze, V.; Varazanashvili, O.; Gugeshashvili, T.

    2012-04-01

    Vulnerability assessment at a national level in Georgia Nino Tsereteli, Vakhtang Arabidze, Otar Varazanashvili, Tengiz Gugeshashvili The risk always exists when cities are built on. Population growth in cities and urbanization in natural hazard-prone zones leads to infrastructure expansion. The goal of the society is to construct natural hazards resistant infrastructure and minimize the expected losses. This is a complicated task as there is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard and vulnerability. Assessment of vulnerability is vital in risk analysis, as vulnerability is defined in many different ways. Work presented here mostly deals with assessment of infrastructure's and population vulnerability at national level in Georgia. This work was initiated by NATO SFP project "seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment for Southern Caucasus - Eastern Turkey Energy Corridors" and the two work packages WP4 (seismic risk) and WP5 (city scenarios) of risk module of EMME (Earthquake Model of the Middle East Region) project. First step was creation databases (inventory) of elements at risk in GIS. Element at risk were the buildings, population, pipelines. The inventories was studied and Created in GIS for the following categories: Building material, number of stories, number of entrances, condition of building, building period. For pipelines pipe tipe (continous or segmented), material, pipe diameter. Very important is to estimate the initial cost of building for assessment of economic losses. From this purpose the attempt was done and the algorithm of this estimation were prepared taking into account obtained the inventory. Build quality, reliability and durability are of special importance to corresponding state agencies and include different aesthetic, engineering, practical, social, technological and economical aspects. The necessity that all of these aspects satisfy existing normative requirements becomes evident as the building and structures come into exploitation

  16. Determining Vulnerability Importance in Environmental Impact Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toro, Javier; Duarte, Oscar; Requena, Ignacio; Zamorano, Montserrat

    2012-01-01

    The concept of vulnerability has been used to describe the susceptibility of physical, biotic, and social systems to harm or hazard. In this sense, it is a tool that reduces the uncertainties of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) since it does not depend exclusively on the value assessments of the evaluator, but rather is based on the environmental state indicators of the site where the projects or activities are being carried out. The concept of vulnerability thus reduces the possibility that evaluators will subjectively interpret results, and be influenced by outside interests and pressures during projects. However, up until now, EIA has been hindered by a lack of effective methods. This research study analyzes the concept of vulnerability, defines Vulnerability Importance and proposes its inclusion in qualitative EIA methodology. The method used to quantify Vulnerability Importance is based on a set of environmental factors and indicators that provide a comprehensive overview of the environmental state. The results obtained in Colombia highlight the usefulness and objectivity of this method since there is a direct relation between this value and the environmental state of the departments analyzed. - Research Highlights: ► The concept of vulnerability could be considered defining Vulnerability Importance included in qualitative EIA methodology. ► The use of the concept of environmental vulnerability could reduce the subjectivity of qualitative methods of EIA. ► A method to quantify the Vulnerability Importance proposed provides a comprehensive overview of the environmental state. ► Results in Colombia highlight the usefulness and objectivity of this method.

  17. Vulnerability of solar energy infrastructure and output to extreme events: Climate change implications (Conference paper)

    OpenAIRE

    Patt, A.; Pfenninger, S.; Lilliestam, J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper explores the potential vulnerability of solar energy systems to future extreme event risks as a consequence of climate change. We describe the three main technologies likely to be used to harness sunlight -- thermal heating, photovoltaic (PV), and concentrating solar power (CSP) -- and identify critical extreme event vulnerabilities for each one. We then compare these vulnerabilities with assessments of future changes in extreme event risk levels. We do not identify any vulnerabili...

  18. Reliability and vulnerability analyses of critical infrastructures: Comparing two approaches in the context of power systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johansson, Jonas; Hassel, Henrik; Zio, Enrico

    2013-01-01

    Society depends on services provided by critical infrastructures, and hence it is important that they are reliable and robust. Two main approaches for gaining knowledge required for designing and improving critical infrastructures are reliability analysis and vulnerability analysis. The former analyses the ability of the system to perform its intended function; the latter analyses its inability to withstand strains and the effects of the consequent failures. The two approaches have similarities but also some differences with respect to what type of information they generate about the system. In this view, the main purpose of this paper is to discuss and contrast these approaches. To strengthen the discussion and exemplify its findings, a Monte Carlo-based reliability analysis and a vulnerability analysis are considered in their application to a relatively simple, but representative, system the IEEE RTS96 electric power test system. The exemplification reveals that reliability analysis provides a good picture of the system likely behaviour, but fails to capture a large portion of the high consequence scenarios, which are instead captured in the vulnerability analysis. Although these scenarios might be estimated to have small probabilities of occurrence, they should be identified, considered and treated cautiously, as probabilistic analyses should not be the only input to decision-making for the design and protection of critical infrastructures. The general conclusion that can be drawn from the findings of the example is that vulnerability analysis should be used to complement reliability studies, as well as other forms of probabilistic risk analysis. Measures should be sought for reducing both the vulnerability, i.e. improving the system ability to withstand strains and stresses, and the reliability, i.e. improving the likely behaviour

  19. Development on Vulnerability Assessment Methods of PPS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MIAO; Qiang; ZHANG; Wen-liang; BU; Li-xin; YIN; Hong-he; LI; Xin-jun; FANG; Xin

    2013-01-01

    Through investigating information from domestic and abroad,joint the domestic assessment experience,we present a set of physical protection system(PPS)vulnerability assessment methods for on-operating nuclear power plants and for on-designing nuclear facilities.The methods will help to strengthen and upgrade the security measures of the nuclear facilities,improve the effectiveness and

  20. Assessing species vulnerability to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacifici, Michela; Foden, Wendy B.; Visconti, Piero; Watson, James E. M.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Kovacs, Kit M.; Scheffers, Brett R.; Hole, David G.; Martin, Tara G.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Corlett, Richard T.; Huntley, Brian; Bickford, David; Carr, Jamie A.; Hoffmann, Ary A.; Midgley, Guy F.; Pearce-Kelly, Paul; Pearson, Richard G.; Williams, Stephen E.; Willis, Stephen G.; Young, Bruce; Rondinini, Carlo

    2015-03-01

    The effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly well documented, and many methods have been developed to assess species' vulnerability to climatic changes, both ongoing and projected in the coming decades. To minimize global biodiversity losses, conservationists need to identify those species that are likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this Review, we summarize different currencies used for assessing species' climate change vulnerability. We describe three main approaches used to derive these currencies (correlative, mechanistic and trait-based), and their associated data requirements, spatial and temporal scales of application and modelling methods. We identify strengths and weaknesses of the approaches and highlight the sources of uncertainty inherent in each method that limit projection reliability. Finally, we provide guidance for conservation practitioners in selecting the most appropriate approach(es) for their planning needs and highlight priority areas for further assessments.

  1. Assessment of Chemical and Radiological Vulnerabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SETH, S.S.

    2000-01-01

    Following the May 14, 1997 chemical explosion at Hanford's Plutonium Reclamation Facility, the Department of Energy Richland Operations Office and its prime contractor, Fluor Hanford, Inc., completed an extensive assessment to identify and address chemical and radiological safety vulnerabilities at all facilities under the Project Hanford Management Contract. This was a challenging undertaking because of the immense size of the problem, unique technical issues, and competing priorities. This paper focuses on the assessment process, including the criteria and methodology for data collection, evaluation, and risk-based scoring. It does not provide details on the facility-specific results and corrective actions, but discusses the approach taken to address the identified vulnerabilities

  2. Assessing tsunami vulnerability, an example from Herakleio, Crete

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papathoma, M.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Zong, Y.; Smith, D.

    Recent tsunami have caused massive loss of life, destruction of coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activity. To date, tsunami hazard studies have concentrated on determining the frequency and magnitude of events and in the production of simplistic flood maps. In general, such maps appear to have assumed a uniform vulnerability of population, infrastructure and business. In reality however, a complex set of factors interact to produce a pattern of vulnerability that varies spatially and temporally. A new vulnerability assessment approach is described, that incorporates multiple factors (e.g. parameters relating to the natural and built environments and socio-demographics) that contribute to tsunami vulnerability. The new methodology is applied on a coastal segment in Greece and, in particular, in Crete, westof the city of Herakleio. The results are presented within a Geographic Information System (GIS). The application of GIS ensures the approach is novel for tsunami studies, since it permits interrogation of the primary database by several different end-users. For example, the GIS may be used: (1) to determine immediate post-tsunami disaster response needs by the emergency services; (2) to preplan tsunami mitigation measures by disaster planners; (3) as a tool for local planning by the municipal authorities or; (4) as a basis for catastrophe modelling by insurance companies. We show that population density varies markedly with the time of the year and that 30% of buildings within the inundation zone are only single story thus increasing the vulnerability of their occupants. Within the high inundation depth zone, 11% of buildings are identified as in need of reinforcement and this figure rises to 50% within the medium inundation depth zone. 10% of businesses are located within the high inundation depth zone and these may need to consider their level of insurance cover to protect against primary building damage, contents loss and business interruption

  3. Assessing dependability and resilience in critical infrastructures: challenges and opportunities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Avritzer, Alberto; Di Giandomenico, Felicita; Remke, Anne Katharina Ingrid; Riedl, Martin; Wolter, Katinka; Avritzer, Alberto; Vieira, Marco; van Moorsel, Aad

    2012-01-01

    Critical infrastructures (CI) are very complex and highly interdependent systems, networks and assets that provide essential services in our daily life. Most CI are either built upon or monitored and controlled by vulnerable information and communication technology (ICT) systems. Critical

  4. Comparative studies of groundwater vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maria, Rizka

    2018-02-01

    Pollution of groundwater is a primary issue because aquifers are susceptible to contamination from land use and anthropogenic impacts. Groundwater susceptibility is intrinsic and specific. Intrinsic vulnerability refers to an aquifer that is susceptible to pollution and to the geological and hydrogeological features. Vulnerability assessment is an essential step in assessing groundwater contamination. This approach provides a visual analysis for helping planners and decision makers to achieve the sustainable management of water resources. Comparative studies are applying different methodologies to result in the basic evaluation of the groundwater vulnerability. Based on the comparison of methods, there are several advantages and disadvantages. SI can be overlaid on DRASTIC and Pesticide DRASTIC to extract the divergence in sensitivity. DRASTIC identifies low susceptibility and underestimates the pollution risk while Pesticide DRASTIC and SI represents better risk and is recommended for the future. SINTACS method generates very high vulnerability zones with surface waters and aquifer interactions. GOD method could be adequate for vulnerability mapping in karstified carbonate aquifers at small-moderate scales, and EPIK method can be used for large scale. GOD method is suitable for designing large area such as land management while DRASTIC has good accuracy and more real use in geoenvironmental detailed studies.

  5. NGNP Infrastructure Readiness Assessment: Consolidation Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castle, Brian K.

    2011-01-01

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) project supports the development, demonstration, and deployment of high temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs). The NGNP project is being reviewed by the Nuclear Energy Advisory Council (NEAC) to provide input to the DOE, who will make a recommendation to the Secretary of Energy, whether or not to continue with Phase 2 of the NGNP project. The NEAC review will be based on, in part, the infrastructure readiness assessment, which is an assessment of industry's current ability to provide specified components for the FOAK NGNP, meet quality assurance requirements, transport components, have the necessary workforce in place, and have the necessary construction capabilities. AREVA and Westinghouse were contracted to perform independent assessments of industry's capabilities because of their experience with nuclear supply chains, which is a result of their experiences with the EPR and AP-1000 reactors. Both vendors produced infrastructure readiness assessment reports that identified key components and categorized these components into three groups based on their ability to be deployed in the FOAK plant. The NGNP project has several programs that are developing key components and capabilities. For these components, the NGNP project have provided input to properly assess the infrastructure readiness for these components.

  6. NGNP Infrastructure Readiness Assessment: Consolidation Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brian K Castle

    2011-02-01

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) project supports the development, demonstration, and deployment of high temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs). The NGNP project is being reviewed by the Nuclear Energy Advisory Council (NEAC) to provide input to the DOE, who will make a recommendation to the Secretary of Energy, whether or not to continue with Phase 2 of the NGNP project. The NEAC review will be based on, in part, the infrastructure readiness assessment, which is an assessment of industry's current ability to provide specified components for the FOAK NGNP, meet quality assurance requirements, transport components, have the necessary workforce in place, and have the necessary construction capabilities. AREVA and Westinghouse were contracted to perform independent assessments of industry's capabilities because of their experience with nuclear supply chains, which is a result of their experiences with the EPR and AP-1000 reactors. Both vendors produced infrastructure readiness assessment reports that identified key components and categorized these components into three groups based on their ability to be deployed in the FOAK plant. The NGNP project has several programs that are developing key components and capabilities. For these components, the NGNP project have provided input to properly assess the infrastructure readiness for these components.

  7. Cyber/Physical Security Vulnerability Assessment Integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacDonald, Douglas G.; Key, Brad; Clements, Samuel L.; Hutton, William J.; Craig, Philip A.; Patrick, Scott W.; Crawford, Cary E.

    2011-01-01

    This internally funded Laboratory-Directed R and D project by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, in conjunction with QinetiQ North America, is intended to identify and properly assess areas of overlap (and interaction) in the vulnerability assessment process between cyber security and physical protection. Existing vulnerability analysis (VA) processes and software tools exist, and these are heavily utilized in the determination of predicted vulnerability within the physical and cyber security domains. These determinations are normally performed independently of one another, and only interact on a superficial level. Both physical and cyber security subject matter experts have come to realize that though the various interactive elements exist, they are not currently quantified in most periodic security assessments. This endeavor aims to evaluate both physical and cyber VA techniques and provide a strategic approach to integrate the interdependent relationships of each into a single VA capability. This effort will also transform the existing suite of software currently utilized in the physical protection world to more accurately quantify the risk associated with a blended attack scenario. Performance databases will be created to support the characterization of the cyber security elements, and roll them into prototype software tools. This new methodology and software capability will enable analysts to better identify and assess the overall risk during a vulnerability analysis.

  8. Urban underground infrastructure mapping and assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huston, Dryver; Xia, Tian; Zhang, Yu; Fan, Taian; Orfeo, Dan; Razinger, Jonathan

    2017-04-01

    This paper outlines and discusses a few associated details of a smart cities approach to the mapping and condition assessment of urban underground infrastructure. Underground utilities are critical infrastructure for all modern cities. They carry drinking water, storm water, sewage, natural gas, electric power, telecommunications, steam, etc. In most cities, the underground infrastructure reflects the growth and history of the city. Many components are aging, in unknown locations with congested configurations, and in unknown condition. The technique uses sensing and information technology to determine the state of infrastructure and provide it in an appropriate, timely and secure format for managers, planners and users. The sensors include ground penetrating radar and buried sensors for persistent sensing of localized conditions. Signal processing and pattern recognition techniques convert the data in information-laden databases for use in analytics, graphical presentations, metering and planning. The presented data are from construction of the St. Paul St. CCTA Bus Station Project in Burlington, VT; utility replacement sites in Winooski, VT; and laboratory tests of smart phone position registration and magnetic signaling. The soil conditions encountered are favorable for GPR sensing and make it possible to locate buried pipes and soil layers. The present state of the art is that the data collection and processing procedures are manual and somewhat tedious, but that solutions for automating these procedures appear to be viable. Magnetic signaling with moving permanent magnets has the potential for sending lowfrequency telemetry signals through soils that are largely impenetrable by other electromagnetic waves.

  9. Assessment of human-natural system characteristics influencing global freshwater supply vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padowski, Julie C.; Gorelick, Steven M.; Thompson, Barton H.; Rozelle, Scott; Fendorf, Scott

    2015-10-01

    Global freshwater vulnerability is a product of environmental and human dimensions, however, it is rarely assessed as such. Our approach identifies freshwater vulnerability using four broad categories: endowment, demand, infrastructure, and institutions, to capture impacts on natural and managed water systems within the coupled human-hydrologic environment. These categories are represented by 19 different endogenous and exogenous characteristics affecting water supply vulnerability. By evaluating 119 lower per capita income countries (Yemen and Djibouti nearly as vulnerable. Surprising similarities in vulnerability were also found among geographically disparate nations such as Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and Guatemala. Determining shared patterns of freshwater vulnerability provides insights into why water supply vulnerabilities are manifested in human-water systems at the national scale.

  10. A Methodology for Assessing the Seismic Vulnerability of Highway Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cirianni, Francis; Leonardi, Giovanni; Scopelliti, Francesco

    2008-01-01

    Modern society is totally dependent on a complex and articulated infrastructure network of vital importance for the existence of the urban settlements scattered on the territory. On these infrastructure systems, usually indicated with the term lifelines, are entrusted numerous services and indispensable functions of the normal urban and human activity.The systems of the lifelines represent an essential element in all the urbanised areas which are subject to seismic risk. It is important that, in these zones, they are planned according to opportune criteria based on two fundamental assumptions: a) determination of the best territorial localization, avoiding, within limits, the places of higher dangerousness; b) application of constructive technologies finalized to the reduction of the vulnerability.Therefore it is indispensable that in any modern process of seismic risk assessment the study of the networks is taken in the rightful consideration, to be integrated with the traditional analyses of the buildings.The present paper moves in this direction, dedicating particular attention to one kind of lifeline: the highway system, proposing a methodology of analysis finalized to the assessment of the seismic vulnerability of the system

  11. Effectively protecting cyber infrastructure and assessing security needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robbins, J.; Starman, R. [EWA Canada Ltd., Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2002-07-01

    This presentation addressed some of the requirements for effectively protecting cyber infrastructure and assessing security needs. The paper discussed the hype regarding cyber attacks, and presented the Canadian reality (as viewed by CanCERT). An assessment of security concerns was also presented. Recent cyber attacks on computer networks have raised fears of unsafe energy networks. Some experts claim the attacks are linked to terrorism, others blame industrial spying and mischief. Others dismiss the notion that somebody could bring down a power grid with a laptop as being far-fetched. It was noted that the cyber security threat is real, and that attacks are becoming more sophisticated as we live in a target rich environment. The issue of assessing vulnerabilities was discussed along with the selection of safeguards such as improving SCADA systems and the latest encryption methods to prevent hackers from bringing down computer networks. 3 tabs., 23 figs.

  12. Coping with subjectivity in vulnerability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renis, T.A.; Cardwell, R.G.

    1988-01-01

    Vulnerability assessment models are widely used to systematically evaluate the performance of complex safeguards systems against a variety of threats. These models require varying levels of detail and input data about the physical design of a facility and its safeguards operations and procedures. However, to evaluate safeguards effectiveness and give a performance rating, these models require additional performance data reflecting probabilities of detection, assessment, interruption, and neutralization, as well as the associated times for various adversary scenarios. These data may be attained from equipment design specifications, laboratory testing, expert judgment, or component testing. Regardless of how these data are obtained, they are inherently subjective. This paper addresses the uses of various vulnerability assessment models and the nature of subjectivity in those models. The paper also describes methods for coping with subjective data

  13. Intelligent Techniques for Power Systems Vulnerability Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed A. El-Sharkawi

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available With power grids considered national security matters, the reliable operation of the system is of top priority to utilities.  This concern is amplified by the utility’s deregulation, which increases the system’s openness while simultaneously decreasing the applied degree of control.  Vulnerability Assessment (VA deals with the power system’s ability to continue to provide service in case of an unforeseen catastrophic contingency.  Such contingencies may include unauthorized tripping, breaks in communication links, sabotage or intrusion by external agents, human errors, natural calamities and faults.  These contingencies could lead to a disruption of service to part or all of the system.  The service disruption is known as outage or blackout.  The paper outlines an approach by which feature extraction and boundary tracking can be implemented to achieve on line vulnerability assessment.

  14. Rapid Assessment of Seismic Vulnerability in Palestinian Refugee Camps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Dabbeek, Jalal N.; El-Kelani, Radwan J.

    Studies of historical and recorded earthquakes in Palestine demonstrate that damaging earthquakes are occurring frequently along the Dead Sea Transform: Earthquake of 11 July 1927 (ML 6.2), Earthquake of 11 February 2004 (ML 5.2). In order to reduce seismic vulnerability of buildings, losses in lives, properties and infrastructures, an attempt was made to estimate the percentage of damage degrees and losses at selected refugee camps: Al Ama`ri, Balata and Dhaishe. Assessing the vulnerability classes of building structures was carried out according to the European Macro-Seismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98) and the Fedral Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The rapid assessment results showed that very heavy structural and non structural damages will occur in the common buildings of the investigated Refugee Camps (many buildings will suffer from damages grades 4 and 5). Bad quality of buildings in terms of design and construction, lack of uniformity, absence of spaces between the building and the limited width of roads will definitely increase the seismic vulnerability under the influence of moderate-strong (M 6-7) earthquakes in the future.

  15. Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunbar, P. K.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Varner, J.

    2006-12-01

    The results of a pilot study to assess the risk from tsunamis for the Seaside-Gearhart, Oregon region will be presented. To determine the risk from tsunamis, it is first necessary to establish the hazard or probability that a tsunami of a particular magnitude will occur within a certain period of time. Tsunami inundation maps that provide 100-year and 500-year probabilistic tsunami wave height contours for the Seaside-Gearhart, Oregon, region were developed as part of an interagency Tsunami Pilot Study(1). These maps provided the probability of the tsunami hazard. The next step in determining risk is to determine the vulnerability or degree of loss resulting from the occurrence of tsunamis due to exposure and fragility. The tsunami vulnerability assessment methodology used in this study was developed by M. Papathoma and others(2). This model incorporates multiple factors (e.g. parameters related to the natural and built environments and socio-demographics) that contribute to tsunami vulnerability. Data provided with FEMA's HAZUS loss estimation software and Clatsop County, Oregon, tax assessment data were used as input to the model. The results, presented within a geographic information system, reveal the percentage of buildings in need of reinforcement and the population density in different inundation depth zones. These results can be used for tsunami mitigation, local planning, and for determining post-tsunami disaster response by emergency services. (1)Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group, Seaside, Oregon Tsunami Pilot Study--Modernization of FEMA Flood Hazard Maps, Joint NOAA/USGS/FEMA Special Report, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2006, Final Draft. (2)Papathoma, M., D. Dominey-Howes, D.,Y. Zong, D. Smith, Assessing Tsunami Vulnerability, an example from Herakleio, Crete, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 3, 2003, p. 377-389.

  16. Intelligent Techniques for Power Systems Vulnerability Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Mohamed A. El-Sharkawi

    2002-01-01

    With power grids considered national security matters, the reliable operation of the system is of top priority to utilities.  This concern is amplified by the utility’s deregulation, which increases the system’s openness while simultaneously decreasing the applied degree of control.  Vulnerability Assessment (VA) deals with the power system’s ability to continue to provide service in case of an unforeseen catastrophic contingency.  Such contingencies may include unauthorized tripping, breaks ...

  17. DETERMINANTS OF RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS IN CRITICAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przemysław Borkowski

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Article deals with the problem of risk assessment in critical energy infrastructure. Firstly the critical infrastructure in energy sector is discussed than risk identification methodology for application to critical infrastructure is proposed. Specific conditions resulting from features of critical infrastructure are addressed in the context of risk assessment procedure. The limits of such a procedure are outlined and critical factors influencing different stages of risk assessment process are researched in view of specificity of the sector.

  18. Tsunami vulnerability assessment in the western coastal belt in Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranagalage, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    26th December 2004 tsunami disaster has caused massive loss of life, damage to coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activities in the coastal belt of Sri Lanka. Tsunami vulnerability assessment is a requirement for disaster risk and vulnerability reduction. It plays a major role in identifying the extent and level of vulnerabilities to disasters within the communities. There is a need for a clearer understanding of the disaster risk patterns and factors contributing to it in different parts of the coastal belt. The main objective of this study is to investigate tsunami vulnerability assessment of Moratuwa Municipal council area in Sri Lanka. We have selected Moratuwa area due to considering urbanization pattern and Tsunami hazards of the country. Different data sets such as one-meter resolution LiDAR data, orthophoto, population, housing data and road layer were employed in this study. We employed tsunami vulnerability model for 1796 housing units located there, for a tsunami scenario with a maximum run-up 8 meters. 86% of the total land area affected by the tsunami in 8 meters scenarios. Additionally, building population has been used to estimate population in different vulnerability levels. The result shows that 32% of the buildings have extremely critical vulnerability level, 46% have critical vulnerability level, 22% have high vulnerability level, and 1% have a moderate vulnerability. According to the population estimation model results, 18% reside building with extremely critical vulnerability, 43% with critical vulnerability, 36% with high vulnerability and 3% belong to moderate vulnerability level. The results of the study provide a clear picture of tsunami vulnerability. Outcomes of this analysis can use as a valuable tool for urban planners to assess the risk and extent of disaster risk reduction which could be achieved via suitable mitigation measures to manage the coastal belt in Sri Lanka.

  19. 77 FR 28894 - Maritime Vulnerability Self-Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-16

    ... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Transportation Security Administration Maritime Vulnerability Self... maritime vulnerability self- assessment tool. SUMMARY: The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) announces that the TSA Maritime Self-Assessment Risk Module (TMSARM), developed to support the United States...

  20. Bridging the Gap Between Policy and Research Infrastructure: Risk and Vulnerability Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hugo, Wim; Rogers, Annabelle

    2017-04-01

    Linking sound scientific data and conclusions to decision and policy support is not a trivial task, and the difficulty in achieving this has been highlighted more than a decade ago (Reid, 2004). There are several reasons why this is the case, inter alia: 1. The language, (vocabularies, framework, and heuristics) adopted by the research community in a specific discipline may not translate into meaningful implementation language (Preston et al., 2015); 2. The researchers may not be in a position of influence (which includes aspects such as writing policy briefs, undertaking personal initiatives, and building up public or industry concern and interest) (Fox and Sitkin, 2015); 3. The frequency, timing, and/or certainty associated with research output is at odds with decision and policy-making cycles. Research typically progresses until there is a defensible level of certainty in statistical assessment of a result, while policy decisions are often made within a regular cycle; 4. Scientists are not trained for, or measured by, the typical work required for decision and policy support: synthesis of scenarios and cost-benefits of such scenarios given sometimes significant uncertainty in the input data, and cross-disciplinary concerns that need to be balanced. There is a significant expectation that research output, being increasingly open, standardised, and managed in formal research data infrastructure, will be useful to policy and decision makers without much additional intervention and modification. We believe that this is unlikely to be feasible in the majority of cases. For most instances, it will be necessary to provide a framework for the translation of scientific output into decision and policy support metrics or indicators at a frequency, with spatial and temporal resolution, and thematic coverage that suits the decision to be made. Such frameworks exist, since the need has been identified - sometimes formally - such as the very detailed framework developed by

  1. Support Process Development for Assessing Green Infrastructure in Omaha, NE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evaluates Omaha’s current process for assessing green infrastructure projects and recommends improvements for comparing green and gray infrastructure. Compares Omaha’s design criteria to other cities. Reviews other US programs with rights-of-way criteria.

  2. Climate change vulnerability for species-Assessing the assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheatley, Christopher J; Beale, Colin M; Bradbury, Richard B; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Critchlow, Rob; Thomas, Chris D

    2017-09-01

    Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate-threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Multi-dimensional flood vulnerability assessment using data envelopment analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahid, Zalina; Saharizan, Nurul Syuhada; Hamzah, Paezah; Hussin, Siti Aida Sheikh; Khairi, Siti Shaliza Mohd

    2017-11-01

    Malaysia has been greatly impacted by flood during monsoon seasons. Even though flood prone areas are well identified, assessment on the vulnerability of the disaster is lacking. Assessment of flood vulnerability, defined as the potential for loss when a disaster occurs, is addressed in this paper. The focus is on the development of flood vulnerability measurement in 11 states in Peninsular Malaysia using a non-parametric approach of Data Envelopment Analysis. Scores for three dimensions of flood vulnerability (Population Vulnerability, Social Vulnerability and Biophysical) were calculated using secondary data of selected input and output variables across an 11-year period from 2004 to 2014. The results showed that Johor and Pahang were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Population Vulnerability, followed by Kelantan, the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Social Vulnerability and Kedah, Pahang and Terengganu were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Biophysical Vulnerability among the eleven states. The results also showed that the state of Johor, Pahang and Kelantan to be most vulnerable across the three dimensions. Flood vulnerability assessment is important as it provides invaluable information that will allow the authority to identify and develop plans for flood mitigation and to reduce the vulnerability of flood at the affected regions.

  4. Interactive exploration of the vulnerability of the human infrastructure: an approach using simultaneous display of similar locations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceré, Raphaël; Kaiser, Christian

    2015-04-01

    Currently, three quarters of the Swiss population is living in urban areas. The total population is still increasing, and urbanized space is increasing event faster. Consequently, the intensity of use has decreased but the exposure of the urban space to natural events has grown along with the cost related to the impact of hazards. In line with this fact, during the 20th century there has been a noticeable increase of natural disasters accompanied by the rapid increase of the world population, leading to higher costs. Additionally to the fact that more people are exposed to natural hazards, the value of goods globally has increased more than proportionally. Consequently, the vulnerability of urban space is, more than ever before, a major issue for socio-economic development. Here, vulnerability is defined as the potential human loss or loss of infrastructure caused by a hazardous event. It encompasses factors of urban infrastructure, population and the environment, which increase the susceptibility of a location to the impact of hazards. This paper describes a novel method for improving the interactive use of exploratory data analysis in the context of minimizing vulnerability and disaster risk by prevention or mitigation. This method is used to assess the similarity between different locations with respect to several characteristics relevant to vulnerability at different scales, allowing for automatic display of multiple locations similar to the one under investigation by an expert. Visualizing vulnerability simultaneously for several locations allows for analyzing and comparing of metric characteristics between multiple places and at different scales. The interactivity aspect is also useful for understanding vulnerability patterns and it facilitates disaster risk management and decisions on global preventive measures in urban spaces. Metrics for vulnerability assessment can be extracted from extensive geospatial datasets such as high-resolution digital elevation

  5. Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Facilities. Preliminary Synthesis of Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moss, R. H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL)/Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.; Blohm, A. J. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Delgado, A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL)/Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.; Henriques, J. J. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Malone, E L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL)/Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.

    2015-08-15

    U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. Agencies have been experimenting with these frameworks and approaches. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Department of Energy and the Department of Defense. The purpose of the paper is to solicit comments and feedback from interested program managers and analysts before final conclusions are published. The paper describes the characteristics of a systematic process for prioritizing needs for adaptation planning at individual facilities and examines requirements and methods needed. It then suggests a framework of steps for vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. In a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change. The case studies point to several preliminary conclusions; (1) Vulnerability assessments are needed to translate potential changes in climate exposure to estimates of impacts and evaluation of their significance for operations and mission attainment, in other words into information that is related to and useful in ongoing planning, management, and decision-making processes; (2) To increase the relevance and utility of vulnerability assessments to site personnel, the assessment process needs to emphasize the characteristics of the site infrastructure, not just climate change; (3) A multi-tiered framework that includes screening, vulnerability assessments at the most vulnerable installations, and adaptation design will efficiently target high-risk sites and infrastructure

  6. Assessing the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khresat, Sa'eb; Shraidaeh, Fadi; Maddat, Amer

    2015-04-01

    Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats facing Jordan. In particular, the combined effects of climate change and water scarcity threaten to affect food and water resources that are critical for livelihoods in Jordan. This is especially true for those communities who live in the dryland area in the country and who rely wholly on rain-fed agriculture. The exact nature and extent of the impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation distribution pattern remain uncertain and it is the poor and vulnerable who will be the most susceptible to climate change adverse effects. A vulnerability assessment of rain fed agriculture to climate change and variability in semi-arid parts of Jordan was conducted in 2014. The purpose of this study is to assess the vulnerability and resilience of the most vulnerable groups where rainfed and irrigated agriculture is practiced. Also, the study focused on quantifying the impacts on agricultural productivity in response to climate change. This will help policymakers and researchers better understand and anticipate the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture and on vulnerable communities in Jordan. Also, it will provide them with tools to identify and implement appropriate adaptation strategies. The data used includes; Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Those pathways were used for climate modeling. A decision support system (DSSAT) for agricultural production was used to assess the impact of climate changes on agricultural production. This approach was used for the Identification of climate change risk and their impacts on Agriculture. Outputs from models are used to assess the vulnerability of farmers and crops to climate and socio-economic change by estimating their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to external factors as a means of identifying what causes the differences in their

  7. The assessment of radio vulnerability in agroecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wasserman, Maria Angelica; Viana, Aline G.; Conti, Claudio C.; Rochedo, Elaine R.; Vivone, Ronaldo J.; Bartoly, Flavia; Perez, Daniel V.

    2005-01-01

    A soil specific sequential extraction protocol, associated to soil to plant transfer factors (TF) data is proposed in this work as a methodology able to detect vulnerability of agro-ecosystems to the contamination with 137 Cs and 90 Sr. The objective is to provide parameters for environmental assessment models and to optimize emergency response planning for the main Brazilian agro-ecosystems and to other Countries with similar soil conditions. Transfer factor values were determined for reference plants, cultivated in Ferralsol, Nitisol and Acrisol that constitute great part in the national agricultural soil. The preliminary results of geochemical partition for these radionuclides were coherent with soil to plant transfer factors (TF) data. And with some soil properties recognized by the specialized literature as related with mechanisms of sorption to Cs (e.g. exchangeable K, organic matter and iron oxides content) and Sr (e.g. exchangeable Ca). Nitisol, showed lower TF for 90 Sr and 137 Cs compared with the other studied soil. In the Nitisol, it is possible that reduction in 137 Cs transfer be also associated with fixation in the internal faces of 2:1 clay mineral type. The integration of experimental methods results obtained in the laboratory with results obtained in field experiments seems to confirm the vulnerability of some Brazilian soil to the radioactivity contamination. (author)

  8. Drought vulnerability assessment: The case of wheat farmers in Western Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarafshani, Kiumars; Sharafi, Lida; Azadi, Hossein; Hosseininia, Gholamhossein; De Maeyer, Philippe; Witlox, Frank

    2012-12-01

    Drought, as a natural and slow-onset phenomenon, creates numerous damages to agricultural communities. As a drought prone area in the Middle East, Iran has currently launched a crisis management approach to mitigate the harmful impacts of drought. However, thus far studies indicate that effective drought management strategies should be designed based upon vulnerability management which can increase farmers' ability to challenge the impacts. The purpose of this study was to assess drought vulnerability across three drought intensities (very high, extremely high, and critical) areas in Western Iran. Accordingly, a survey study was applied and 370 wheat farmers who all experienced drought during 2007-2009 were selected through a multi-stage stratified random sampling method. Face to face interviews were used to collect data on vulnerability indices from the farmers. Me-Bar and Valdez's vulnerability formula was applied to assess the vulnerability of wheat farmers during drought. Results revealed that the farmers' vulnerability is influenced mainly by economic, socio-cultural, psychological, technical, and infrastructural factors. The results also indicated that the farmers in Sarpole-Zahab township were most vulnerable compared to those in the Kermanshah township as the least vulnerable. Accordingly, some conclusions and recommendations are drawn for both policy-makers and practitioners who often must prioritize limited resources in the design vulnerability-reducing interventions.

  9. An assessment of coastal vulnerability for the South African coast ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Coastal vulnerability is the degree to which a coastal system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change. One of the most widely used methods in assessing risk and vulnerability of coastlines on a regional scale includes the calculation of vulnerability indices and presenting these results on a ...

  10. Vulnerability assessment including tangible and intangible components in the index composition: An Amazon case study of flooding and flash flooding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Milena Marília Nogueira de; Szlafsztein, Claudio Fabian

    2018-07-15

    The vulnerability of cities and communities in the Amazon to flooding and flash flooding is increasing. The effects of extreme events on populations vary across landscapes, causing vulnerability to differ spatially. Traditional vulnerability studies in Brazil and across the world have used the vulnerability index for the country and, more recently, municipality scales. The vulnerability dimensions are exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. For each of these dimensions, there is a group of indicators that constitutes a vulnerability index using quantitative data. Several vulnerability assessments have used sensitivity and exposure analyses and, recently, adaptive capacity has been considered. The Geographical Information Systems (GIS) analysis allows spatial regional modeling using quantitative vulnerability indicators. This paper presents a local-scale vulnerability assessment in an urban Amazonian area, Santarém City, using interdisciplinary methods. Data for exposure and sensitivity were gathered by remote sensing and census data, respectively. However, adaptive capacity refers to local capacities, whether infrastructural or not, and the latter were gathered by qualitative participatory methods. For the mixed data used to study adaptive capacity, we consider tangible components for countable infrastructure that can cope with hazards, and intangible components that reflect social activities based on risk perceptions and collective action. The results indicate that over 80% of the area is highly or moderately vulnerable to flooding and flash flooding. Exposure and adaptive capacity were determinants of the results. Lower values of adaptive capacity play a significant role in vulnerability enhancement. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N H

    2017-09-01

    Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

  12. Climate Vulnerability of Hydro-power infrastructure in the Eastern African Power Pool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridharan, Vignesh

    2017-04-01

    At present there is around 6000 MW of installed hydropower capacity in the Eastern African power pool (EAPP)[1]. With countries aggressively planning to achieve the Sustainable development goal (SDG) of ensuring access to affordable electricity for all, a three-fold increase in hydropower capacity is expected by 2040 [1]. Most of the existing and planned infrastructure lie inside the Nile River Basin. The latest assessment report (AR 5) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates a high level of climatic uncertainty in the Nile Basin. The Climate Moisture index (CMI) for the Eastern Nile region and the Nile Equatorial lakes varies significantly across the different General Circulation Models (GCM)[2]. Such high uncertainty casts a shadow on the plans to expand hydropower capacity, doubting whether hydropower expansion can contribute to the goal of improving access to electricity or end up as sunk investments. In this assessment, we analyze adaptation strategies for national energy systems in the Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP), which minimize the regret that could potentially arise from impacts of a changed climate. An energy systems model of the EAPP is developed representing national electricity supply infrastructure. Cross border transmission and hydropower infrastructure is defined at individual project level. The energy systems model is coupled with a water systems management model of the Nile River Basin that calculates the water availability at different hydropower infrastructures under a range of climate scenarios. The results suggest that a robust adaptation strategy consisting of investments in cross border electricity transmission infrastructure and diversifying sources of electricity supply will require additional investments of USD 4.2 billion by 2050. However, this leads to fuel and operational cost savings of up to USD 22.6 billion, depending on the climate scenario. [1] "Platts, 2016. World Electric Power Plants Database

  13. Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment Accounting for Human Influence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehran, A.; AghaKouchak, A.

    2014-12-01

    Reservoirs are one of the main infrastructures that provide resilience against extremes (e.g., floods and droughts) and they play a key role in water resources management. Based on International Commission of Large Dams (ICOLD 2003) records, the total volume of reservoirs is over 6200 km3, which is twice larger than the global annual water use estimated as 3000 km3. Just a simple comparison of the two numbers indicates the importance of reservoirs and their role in providing resilience for water security. On the other hand, man-made reservoirs change the water distribution throughout the year. Most climate change impact studies ignore the role of reservoirs in water availability studies. However, water availability cannot be properly assessed without a thorough assessment of reservoir conditions. By combining classical methods for climate variability assessment (top-down approach) and influence assessment (bottom-up approach), this study offers a hybrid framework that integrates different drivers of water storage vulnerability. Final index is termed as the Multivariate Standardized Reliability and Resilience Index (MSRRI). This index investigates the adaptive capacity of the reservoir and exposure of the system to variable conditions. MSRRI has been investigated over several major reservoirs in Australia and California, United States. This presentation reviews recent findings and discusses reservoir conditions in Australia and California using MSRRI under different climatic change scenarios.

  14. Development of a Malicious Insider Composite Vulnerability Assessment Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    King, William H

    2006-01-01

    .... There are very few vulnerability and impact models capable of providing information owners with the ability to comprehensively assess the effectiveness an organization's malicious insider mitigation strategies...

  15. Cyber Security: Critical Infrastructure Controls Assessment Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-01

    the threats to and 3 • Patch and configuration management • Vulnerability and incident t 2 vulnerabilities • Recommendations to reduce 4 managemen 5... Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other...unclassified c. THIS PAGE unclassified Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 Purpose P id i t hrov e an overv ew on assessmen

  16. The role of network theory and object-oriented modeling within a framework for the vulnerability analysis of critical infrastructures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eusgeld, Irene; Kroeger, Wolfgang; Sansavini, Giovanni; Schlaepfer, Markus; Zio, Enrico

    2009-01-01

    A framework for the analysis of the vulnerability of critical infrastructures has been proposed by some of the authors. The framework basically consists of two successive stages: (i) a screening analysis for identifying the parts of the critical infrastructure most relevant with respect to its vulnerability and (ii) a detailed modeling of the operational dynamics of the identified parts for gaining insights on the causes and mechanisms responsible for the vulnerability. In this paper, a critical presentation is offered of the results of a set of investigations aimed at evaluating the potentials of (i) using network analysis based on measures of topological interconnection and reliability efficiency, for the screening task; (ii) using object-oriented modeling as the simulation framework to capture the detailed dynamics of the operational scenarios involving the most vulnerable parts of the critical infrastructure as identified by the preceding network analysis. A case study based on the Swiss high-voltage transmission system is considered. The results are cross-compared and evaluated; the needs of further research are defined

  17. Vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taback, I.

    1979-01-01

    The discussion of vulnerability begins with a description of some of the electrical characteristics of fibers before definiting how vulnerability calculations are done. The vulnerability results secured to date are presented. The discussion touches on post exposure vulnerability. After a description of some shock hazard work now underway, the discussion leads into a description of the planned effort and some preliminary conclusions are presented.

  18. Assessing local vulnerability to climate change in Ecuador

    OpenAIRE

    Fernandez, Mario Andres; Bucaram, Santiago J.; Renteria, Willington

    2015-01-01

    Vulnerability assessments have become necessary to increase the understanding of climate-sensitive systems and inform resource allocation in developing countries. Challenges arise when poor economic and social development combines with heterogeneous climatic conditions. Thus, finding and harmonizing good-quality data at local scale may be a significant hurdle for vulnerability research. In this paper we assess vulnerability to climate change at a local level in Ecuador. We take Ecuador as a c...

  19. Extending Vulnerability Assessment to Include Life Stages Considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgson, Emma E; Essington, Timothy E; Kaplan, Isaac C

    2016-01-01

    Species are experiencing a suite of novel stressors from anthropogenic activities that have impacts at multiple scales. Vulnerability assessment is one tool to evaluate the likely impacts that these stressors pose to species so that high-vulnerability cases can be identified and prioritized for monitoring, protection, or mitigation. Commonly used semi-quantitative methods lack a framework to explicitly account for differences in exposure to stressors and organism responses across life stages. Here we propose a modification to commonly used spatial vulnerability assessment methods that includes such an approach, using ocean acidification in the California Current as an illustrative case study. Life stage considerations were included by assessing vulnerability of each life stage to ocean acidification and were used to estimate population vulnerability in two ways. We set population vulnerability equal to: (1) the maximum stage vulnerability and (2) a weighted mean across all stages, with weights calculated using Lefkovitch matrix models. Vulnerability was found to vary across life stages for the six species explored in this case study: two krill-Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera, pteropod-Limacina helicina, pink shrimp-Pandalus jordani, Dungeness crab-Metacarcinus magister and Pacific hake-Merluccius productus. The maximum vulnerability estimates ranged from larval to subadult and adult stages with no consistent stage having maximum vulnerability across species. Similarly, integrated vulnerability metrics varied greatly across species. A comparison showed that some species had vulnerabilities that were similar between the two metrics, while other species' vulnerabilities varied substantially between the two metrics. These differences primarily resulted from cases where the most vulnerable stage had a low relative weight. We compare these methods and explore circumstances where each method may be appropriate.

  20. Rockfall vulnerability assessment for reinforced concrete buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mavrouli, O.; Corominas, J.

    2010-10-01

    The vulnerability of buildings to the impact of rockfalls is a topic that has recently attracted increasing attention in the scientific literature. The quantification of the vulnerability, when based on empirical or heuristic approaches requires data recorded from historical rockfalls, which are not always available. This is the reason why appropriate alternatives are required. The use of analytical and numerical models can be one of them. In this paper, a methodology is proposed for the analytical evaluation of the vulnerability of reinforced concrete buildings. The vulnerability is included in the risk equation by incorporating the uncertainty of the impact location of the rock block and the subsequent damage level. The output is a weighted vulnerability that ranges from 0 to 1 and expresses the potential damage that a rock block causes to a building in function of its velocity and size. The vulnerability is calculated by the sum of the products of the probability of block impact on each element of the building and its associated damage state, the latter expressed in relative recovery cost terms. The probability of exceeding a specific damage state such as non-structural, local, partial, extensive or total collapse is also important for the quantification of risk and to this purpose, several sets of fragility curves for various rock diameters and increasing velocities have been prepared. An example is shown for the case of a simple reinforced concrete building and impact energies from 0 to 4075 kJ.

  1. Climate change: assessment of the vulnerability of nuclear power and cost of adaptation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paillere, H.; Cameron, R. [OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, Issy-les-Moulineaux, Paris (France); Caneill, J.-Y. [EDF Group, Paris, (France); Syri, S. [Aalto Univ., Dept. of Energy Technology, Aalto (Finland)

    2014-07-01

    This paper reports on the preliminary outcome of an OECD study (2013-14) aimed at assessing the vulnerability of nuclear power generation in the event of extreme weather events that could be induced by climate change. Nuclear power plants (NPPs), just as other energy infrastructures, can be affected by phenomena such as floods, storms, heat waves, droughts, etc. This paper reports on examples of extreme weather events that have affected the operation of NPPs, and describes the adaptation strategy that can be implemented to improve the resilience of existing generating assets as well as new infrastructures. (author)

  2. Modelling self-assessed vulnerability to HIV and its associated ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Globally, individuals' self-assessment of vulnerability to HIV infection is important to maintain safer sexual behaviour and reduce risky behaviours. However, determinants of self-perceived risk of HIV infection are not well documented and differ. We assessed the level of self-perceived vulnerability to HIV ...

  3. 7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 11 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27 Section 1730.27 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL UTILITIES... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...

  4. Vulnerability assessment to Drought in Various Provinces, approach towards risk management in the country

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Nasrnia

    2016-05-01

    deal with drought in the community and reflect the effects of drought on people's ability to cope with the event. The physical vulnerability is related to the characteristics and the structure of society, infrastructure and services that are the result of the damage caused by drought. In the present study, the economic dimension of vulnerability, including GDP per capita, value added in agriculture, value added in industry and the impact of drought on the GDP. Under the criteria of social vulnerability, population density, population growth, the rate of literacy, vulnerable populations, the costs of health and safety and the impact of drought on employment were considered. The physical dimensions of vulnerability include the rate of irrigated land and road density since the objective of this study was to assess vulnerability to drought in various provinces of the country, the required data for all provinces except for Alborz province was collected in 1391 from intelligence sources. To determine the importance of different dimensions of vulnerability as well as the sub-phase in each dimension, the questionnaire was used for paired comparisons. As for the tens of experts, specialists and professionals who have expertise using the Delphi method is incorporated. In general, the importance of physical vulnerability is more than economic and social vulnerability. On the other hand, according to the results the economic and social vulnerability is important, too. The results of this study showed that the importance of the physical vulnerability was more than the economic and social vulnerability and economic vulnerability and social importance were the same. In the economic vulnerability sub-criteria of per capita GDP, in the social vulnerability sub-criteria of population density and in the physical vulnerability sub-criteria of road density have the most importance. These findings may reflect the fact that when drought occurs, access to infrastructure, services and markets

  5. Critical infrastructure security assessment, prevention, detection, response

    CERN Document Server

    FLAMMINI, F

    2012-01-01

    The most comprehensive handbook on critical infrastructures (CI), addressing both logical and physical security from an engineering point of view. The book surveys state-of-the-art methodologies and tools for CI analysis as well as strategies and technologies for CI protection.

  6. Social vulnerability assessment: a growing practice in Europe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapsell, S.; McC arthy, S.

    2012-04-01

    This paper builds upon work on social vulnerability from the CapHaz-Net consortium, an ongoing research project funded by the European Commission in its 7th Framework Programme. The project focuses on the social dimensions of natural hazards, as well as on regional practices of risk prevention and management, and aims at improving the resilience of European societies to natural hazards, paying particular attention to social capacity building. The topic of social vulnerability is one of seven themes being addressed in the project. There are various rationales for examining the relevance of social vulnerability to natural hazards. Vulnerability assessment has now been accepted as a requirement for the effective development of emergency management capability, and assessment of social vulnerability has been recognised as being integral to understanding the risk to natural hazards. The aim of our research was to examine social vulnerability, how it might be understood in the context of natural hazards in Europe, and how social vulnerability can be addressed to increase social capacity. The work comprised a review of research on social vulnerability to different natural hazards within Europe and included concepts and definitions of social vulnerability (and related concepts), the purpose of vulnerability assessment and who decides who is vulnerable, different approaches to assessing or measuring social vulnerability (such as the use of 'classical' quantitative vulnerability indicators and qualitative community-based approaches, along with the advantages and disadvantages of both), conceptual frameworks for assessing social vulnerability and three case studies of social vulnerability studies within Europe: flash floods in the Italian Alps, fluvial flooding in Germany and heat waves in Spain. The review reveals variable application of social vulnerability analysis across Europe and there are indications why this might be the case. Reasons could range from the scale of

  7. Integrated flash flood vulnerability assessment: Insights from East Attica, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Thaler, Thomas; Heiser, Micha; Hübl, Johannes; Fuchs, Sven

    2016-10-01

    In the framework of flood risk assessment, vulnerability is a key concept to assess the susceptibility of elements at risk. Besides the increasing amount of studies on flash floods available, in-depth information on vulnerability in Mediterranean countries was missing so far. Moreover, current approaches in vulnerability research are driven by a divide between social scientists who tend to view vulnerability as representing a set of socio-economic factors, and natural scientists who view vulnerability in terms of the degree of loss to an element at risk. Further, vulnerability studies in response to flash flood processes are rarely answered in the literature. In order to close this gap, this paper implemented an integrated vulnerability approach focusing on residential buildings exposed to flash floods in Greece. In general, both physical and social vulnerability was comparable low, which is interpreted as a result from (a) specific building regulations in Greece as well as general design principles leading to less structural susceptibility of elements at risk exposed, and (b) relatively low economic losses leading to less social vulnerability of citizens exposed. The population show high risk awareness and coping capacity to response to natural hazards event and in the same time the impact of the events are quite low, because of the already high use of local protection measures. The low vulnerability score for East Attica can be attributed especially to the low physical vulnerability and the moderate socio-economic well-being of the area. The consequence is to focus risk management strategies mainly in the reduction of the social vulnerability. By analysing both physical and social vulnerability an attempt was made to bridge the gap between scholars from sciences and humanities, and to integrate the results of the analysis into the broader vulnerability context.

  8. Assessment of Urban Infrastructure Quality and User Satisfaction in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study assessed urban infrastructure quality and the level of user satisfaction with urban infrastructure in low income residential neighbourhoods in Minna, Nigeria. Five (5) neighbourhoods were selected for the study, and a total of 250 housing units were sampled. Questionnaire was administered on households that fell ...

  9. California Statewide Plug-In Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melaina, Marc; Helwig, Michael

    2014-05-01

    The California Statewide Plug-In Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Assessment conveys to interested parties the Energy Commission’s conclusions, recommendations, and intentions with respect to plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) infrastructure development. There are several relatively low-risk and high-priority electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) deployment options that will encourage PEV sales and

  10. Elements at risk as a framework for assessing the vulnerability of communities to landslides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Papathoma-Köhle

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of the vulnerability of communities prone to landslide related disasters is a topic that is growing in importance. Few studies discuss this issue and limited research has been carried out on the relationship between types of landslide and their potential impact on buildings and infrastructure. We outline a framework to undertake an assessment of the vulnerability of buildings to landslide utilising a similar framework used for assessing the vulnerability of buildings to tsunami damage. The framework is based on the development of an "elements at risk database" that takes into consideration the characteristics and use of the buildings, their importance for the local economy and the characteristics of the inhabitants (population density, age and so forth. The attributes that affect vulnerability are imported and examined within a GIS database which is used to visualise the physical, human and economic vulnerability. The results may have important implications for disaster management and emergency planning, and the database can be used by various end-users and stakeholders such as insurance companies, local authorities and the emergency services. The approach presented here can be integrated in to a wider more detailed "Framework for Landslide Risk and Vulnerability Assessment for Communities". We illustrate the potential of this framework and present preliminary results from Lichtenstein, Baden Württemberg, Germany.

  11. Adaptive pathways and coupled infrastructure: seven centuries of adaptation to water risk and the production of vulnerability in Mexico City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beth Tellman

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Infrastructure development is central to the processes that abate and produce vulnerabilities in cities. Urban actors, especially those with power and authority, perceive and interpret vulnerability and decide when and how to adapt. When city managers use infrastructure to reduce urban risk in the complex, interconnected city system, new fragilities are introduced because of inherent system feedbacks. We trace the interactions between system dynamics and decision-making processes over 700 years of Mexico City's adaptations to water risks, focusing on the decision cycles of public infrastructure providers (in this case, government authorities. We bring together two lenses in examining this history: robustness-vulnerability trade-offs to explain the evolution of systemic risk dynamics mediated by feedback control, and adaptation pathways to focus on the evolution of decision cycles that motivate significant infrastructure investments. Drawing from historical accounts, archeological evidence, and original research on water, engineering, and cultural history, we examine adaptation pathways of humans settlement, water supply, and flood risk. Mexico City's history reveals insights that expand the theory of coupled infrastructure and lessons salient to contemporary urban risk management: (1 adapting by spatially externalizing risks can backfire: as cities expand, such risks become endogenous; (2 over time, adaptation pathways initiated to address specific risks may begin to intersect, creating complex trade-offs in risk management; and (3 city authorities are agents of risk production: even in the face of new exogenous risks (climate change, acknowledging and managing risks produced endogenously may prove more adaptive. History demonstrates that the very best solutions today may present critical challenges for tomorrow, and that collectively people have far more agency in and influence over the complex systems we live in than is often acknowledged.

  12. Ecosystem Vulnerability Review: Proposal of an Interdisciplinary Ecosystem Assessment Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weißhuhn, Peter; Müller, Felix; Wiggering, Hubert

    2018-06-01

    To safeguard the sustainable use of ecosystems and their services, early detection of potentially damaging changes in functional capabilities is needed. To support a proper ecosystem management, the analysis of an ecosystem's vulnerability provide information on its weaknesses as well as on its capacity to recover after suffering an impact. However, the application of the vulnerability concept to ecosystems is still an emerging topic. After providing background on the vulnerability concept, we summarize existing ecosystem vulnerability research on the basis of a systematic literature review with a special focus on ecosystem type, disciplinary background, and more detailed definition of the ecosystem vulnerability components. Using the Web of ScienceTM Core Collection, we overviewed the literature from 1991 onwards but used the 5 years from 2011 to 2015 for an in-depth analysis, including 129 articles. We found that ecosystem vulnerability analysis has been applied most notably in conservation biology, climate change research, and ecological risk assessments, pinpointing a limited spreading across the environmental sciences. It occurred primarily within marine and freshwater ecosystems. To avoid confusion, we recommend using the unambiguous term ecosystem vulnerability rather than ecological, environmental, population, or community vulnerability. Further, common ground has been identified, on which to define the ecosystem vulnerability components exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We propose a framework for ecosystem assessments that coherently connects the concepts of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptability as different ecosystem responses. A short outlook on the possible operationalization of the concept by ecosystem vulnerabilty indices, and a conclusion section complete the review.

  13. Cyber Vulnerabilities Within Critical Infrastructure: The Flaws of Industrial Control Systems in the Oil and Gas Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alpi, Danielle Marie

    The 16 sectors of critical infrastructure in the US are susceptible to cyber-attacks. Potential attacks come from internal and external threats. These attacks target the industrial control systems (ICS) of companies within critical infrastructure. Weakness in the energy sector's ICS, specifically the oil and gas industry, can result in economic and ecological disaster. The purpose of this study was to establish means for oil companies to identify and stop cyber-attacks specifically APT threats. This research reviewed current cyber vulnerabilities and ways in which a cyber-attack may be deterred. This research found that there are insecure devices within ICS that are not regularly updated. Therefore, security issues have amassed. Safety procedures and training thereof are often neglected. Jurisdiction is unclear in regard to critical infrastructure. The recommendations this research offers are further examination of information sharing methods, development of analytic platforms, and better methods for the implementation of defense-in-depth security measures.

  14. Effective vulnerability assessments for physical security devices, systems, and programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnston, R.G.; Garcia, A.R.E.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: The efficacy of devices, systems, and programs used for physical security depend critically on having periodic and effective vulnerability assessments. Effective vulnerability assessments, in turn, require certain conditions and attributes. These include: a proper understanding of their purpose; not confusing vulnerability assessments with other kinds of metrics, analyses, tests, and security exercises; the view that vulnerabilities are inevitable, and that finding them is good news (since they can then be mitigated), not bad news; rejection of findings of no vulnerabilities; avoidance of mere 'compliance mode' rubber stamping; the use of the proper outside, independent, imaginative personnel; psychologically predisposed to finding and demonstrating problems; the absence of conflicts of interest; no unrealistic constraints on the possible attack tools, procedures, personnel, or strategies; efforts to not just find and demonstrate vulnerabilities, but also to suggest possible countermeasures; proper context; input and buy-in from ALL facility security personnel, especially low-level personnel; emphasis on the simplest, most relevant attacks first; no underestimation of potential adversaries; consideration of fault analysis attacks; awareness of Rohrbach's Maxim and Shannon's Maxim. In addition to these factors, we will cover some of the complex issues and problems associated with the design of vulnerability assessments. There will also be suggestions on how to conduct effective vulnerability assessments on a severely limited budget. We will conclude with a discussion of both conventional and unconventional ways of reporting results. (author)

  15. 6 CFR 27.215 - Security vulnerability assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Security vulnerability assessments. 27.215 Section 27.215 Domestic Security DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY, OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY CHEMICAL FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.215 Security vulnerability...

  16. Assessment of food fraud vulnerability in the spices chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Silvis, I.C.J.; Ruth, van S.M.; Fels, van der Ine; Luning, P.A.

    2017-01-01

    Recent scandals have increased the need to strengthen companies’ ability to combat fraud within their own organizations and across their supply chain. Vulnerability assessments are a first step towards the inventory of fraud vulnerability and fraud mitigation plans. Spices are reported frequently

  17. Assessment of farm households' vulnerability to climate change in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate change is currently an emerging problem in Nigeria. The Niger Delta region presents some vulnerability due to activities of some oil companies. This study provides an assessment of farm households' perception of climate change and vulnerability in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. The data were obtained form ...

  18. Assessment of groundwater vulnerability and sensitivity to pollution ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Groundwater pollution caused by human activity is a serious environmental problem in cities. Pollution vulnerability assessment of groundwater resources provides information on how to protect areas vulnerable to pollution. The present study is a detailed investigation of the potential for groundwater contamination through ...

  19. Landslide Vulnerability Assessment (LVAs: A Case Study from Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodeano Roslee

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available DOI: 10.17014/ijog.4.1.49-59The topic on Landslide Vulnerability Assessment (LVAs in Malaysia is relatively new and received little attention from geoscientists and engineers. This research paper tries to formulate the concept of LVAs by taking into account the science and socio-economic aspects. A new approach in vulnerability concept is also introduced herein. To achieve this goal, a framework was designed for assessing the LVAs. The framework was formulated semiquantitatively through the development of database for the risk elements (human and properties based on information from secondary data (technical reports, extensive review of literature, and field observations. The vulnerability parameters included in assessing LVAs are 1 physical implication (building structures, internal materials, property damage, infrastructural facilities, and stabilization actions, 2 social status (injury, fatalities, safety, loss of accommodation, and public awareness, and 3 interference on environment (affected period, daily operation, and diversity. Each considered parameter in the vulnerability assessment is allocated with a certain index value ranges from 0 (0 % damage/victims/period, 0.25 (1 - 25% damage/victims/period, 0.50 (26 - 50% damage/victims/period, 0.75 (51 - 75% damage/victims/period, and 1.00 (75 - 100% damage/victims/period. All of these parameters are compiled and analyzed with “Landslide Distribution Map” (LDM to generate a “Landslide Vulnerability Degree map (LVD”. The LDM was produced based on field studies and satellite image interpretations in order to locate the landslide locations in the studied area. Finally, three types of physical, human, and environment vulnerabilities were then classified into five classes of vulnerabilities, namely: Class 1 (< 0.20: Very Low Vulnerability; Class 2 (0.21 - 0.40: Low Vulnerability; Class 3 (0.41 - 0.60: Medium Vulnerability; Class 4 (0.61 - 0.80: High Vulnerability; and Class 5 (> 0.81: Very

  20. Assessing local vulnerability to climate change in Ecuador.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Mario Andres; Bucaram, Santiago J; Renteria, Willington

    2015-01-01

    Vulnerability assessments have become necessary to increase the understanding of climate-sensitive systems and inform resource allocation in developing countries. Challenges arise when poor economic and social development combines with heterogeneous climatic conditions. Thus, finding and harmonizing good-quality data at local scale may be a significant hurdle for vulnerability research. In this paper we assess vulnerability to climate change at a local level in Ecuador. We take Ecuador as a case study as socioeconomic data are readily available. To incorporate the spatial and temporal pattern of the climatic variables we use reanalysis datasets and empirical orthogonal functions. Our assessment strategy relies on the statistical behavior of climatic and socioeconomic indicators for the weighting and aggregation mechanism into a composite vulnerability indicator. Rather than assuming equal contribution to the formation of the composite indicator, we assume that the weights of the indicators vary inversely as the variance over the cantons (administrative division of Ecuador). This approach captures the multi-dimensionality of vulnerability in a comprehensive form. We find that the least vulnerable cantons concentrate around Ecuador's largest cities (e.g. Quito and Guayaquil); however, approximately 20 % of the national population lives in other cantons that are categorized as highly and very highly vulnerable to climate change. Results also show that the main determinants of high vulnerability are the lack of land tenure in agricultural areas and the nonexistence of government-funded programs directed to environmental and climate change management.

  1. [Assessment of eco-environmental vulnerability of Hainan Island, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Bao-rong; Ouyang, Zhi-yun; Zhang, Hui-zhi; Zhang, Li-hua; Zheng, Hua

    2009-03-01

    Based on the assessment method of environmental vulnerability constructed by SOPAC and UNEP, this paper constructed an indicator system from three sub-themes including hazard, resistance, and damage to assess the eco-environmental vulnerability of Hainan Island. The results showed that Hainan Island was suffering a middling level eco-environmental hazard, and the main hazards came from some intensive human activities such as intensive agriculture, mass tourism, mining, and a mass of solid wastes thrown by islanders and tourists. Some geographical characters such as larger land area, larger altitude range, integrated geographical form, and abundant habitat types endowed Hainan Island higher resistance to environmental hazards. However, disturbed by historical accumulative artificial and natural hazards, the Island ecosystem had showed serious ecological damage, such as soil degradation and biodiversity loss. Comprehensively considered hazard, resistance, damage, and degradation, the comprehensive environmental vulnerability of the Island was at a middling level. Some indicators showed lower vulnerability, but some showed higher vulnerability.

  2. Beyond Vulnerability Assessment: Impact of Developments toward Local Adaptive Capacity in Kemijen City Village, Semarang City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayanimitta, M. E.; Puspasari, D. A.; Widyahantari, R.; Kristina, D.; Ratnaningtyas, T.; Setionurjaya, A.; Anindita, Y. A.

    2018-02-01

    Vulnerability Assessment is usually used for assessing the ability of an area on facing disaster. In previous studies, the study of Vulnerability Assessment applied only quantitative method to show the vulnerability level. Therefore, this study attempts to add information reviews using qualitative method. Kemijen City Village is one of the administrative areas in the northern part of Semarang City affected by climate change. The residents have to adapt it by renovating and elevating their houses and other infrastructures to avoid floods. There are some development programs held by government, NGOs, and corporations such as Banger Polder Development, PLPBK, etc. It is interesting to know how big the vulnerability level of Kemijen on facing flood disasters, then how the projects can affect local adaptive capacity. To answer it, this research uses mixed-method approach. Vulnerability Assessment uses quantitative method by scoring indicators of Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity, while the development impact uses qualitative method. The data were collected through interviews and FGD conducted in Joint Studio Course between Diponegoro University and University of Hawaii in October 2016. Non-physical programs such as community empowerment have more positive impacts on local adaptive capacity in Kemijen. Community participation is important for environmental sustainability that can not be done in a short time to educate the people.

  3. The effects of `non-infrastructural' measures to improve the safety of vulnerable road users : a review of international findings, prepared for the OECD Scientific Expert Group "Safety of vulnerable road users".

    OpenAIRE

    Hagenzieker, M.P.

    1997-01-01

    This report reviews the evaluated effects of what can be called `non-infrastructural measures' to improve the safety of vulnerable road users. Three selected areas are discussed: education and training, measures to enhance visibility and conspecuity, and protective devices for bicyclists. Other types of non-infrastructural measures are briefly mentioned.

  4. The use of climate information in vulnerability assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    This memorandum focuses on the use of climate information when performing a vulnerability : assessment, a topic that was discussed at the Newark Pilot Peer Exchange Workshop on May 4-5, : 2011. The memorandum describes several sources of climate info...

  5. An assessment of flood vulnerability on physical development along ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mohammad

    Key words: Drainage channel, flood, risk assessment, vulnerability. INTRODUCTION ... hydraulic and other control structures.” The effects of floods are always ..... An application of Geographic Information System in mapping flood risk zones in ...

  6. All rights reserved Assessment of groundwater vulnerability and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    2017-12-12

    Dec 12, 2017 ... Pollution vulnerability assessment of groundwater resources provides information on how to protect areas ... the application of DRASTIC model, the relationship ..... mathematical structure of consistent matrices and the.

  7. Assessment on Vulnerable Youths Integration to Dar es Salaam ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment on Vulnerable Youths Integration to Dar es Salaam Solid Waste ... existing municipal solid waste management crisis facing Dar es Salaam City using ... enabling environment of turning rampant solid waste collection a commercial ...

  8. Taking the uncertainty in climate-change vulnerability assessment seriously

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patt, A.; Patt, A.; Klein, R.J.T.; Vega-Leinert, A. de la

    2005-01-01

    Climate-change vulnerability assessment has become a frequently employed tool, with the purpose of informing policy-makers attempting to adapt to global change conditions. However, we suggest that there are three reasons to suspect that vulnerability assessment often promises more certainty, and more useful results, than it can deliver. First, the complexity of the system it purports to describe is greater than that described by other types of assessment. Second, it is difficult, if not impossible, to obtain data to test proposed interactions between different vulnerability drivers. Third, the time scale of analysis is too long to be able to make robust projections about future adaptive capacity. We analyze the results from a stakeholder workshop in a European vulnerability assessment, and find evidence to support these arguments. (authors)

  9. Vulnerability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Issa, Sahar; van der Molen, Irna; Stel, Nora

    2015-01-01

    This chapter reviews the literature on vulnerability. Together with Chapter 3, that offers a literature review specifically focused on resilience, it lays the conceptual foundations for the empirical chapters in this edited volume. Vulnerability symbolizes the susceptibility of a certain system to

  10. Risk assessment framework on time impact: Infrastructure projects in soft soil during construction stage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Low, W. W.; Wong, K. S.; Lee, J. L.

    2018-04-01

    With the growth of economy and population, there is an increase in infrastructure construction projects. As such, it is unavoidable to have construction projects on soft soil. Without proper risk management plan, construction projects are vulnerable to different types of risks which will have negative impact on project’s time, cost and quality. Literature review showed that little or none of the research is focused on the risk assessment on the infrastructure project in soft soil. Hence, the aim of this research is to propose a risk assessment framework in infrastructure projects in soft soil during the construction stage. This research was focused on the impact of risks on project time and internal risk factors. The research method was Analytical Hierarchy Process and the sample population was experienced industry experts who have experience in infrastructure projects. Analysis was completed and result showed that for internal factors, the five most significant risks on time element are lack of special equipment, potential contractual disputes and claims, shortage of skilled workers, delay/lack of materials supply, and insolvency of contractor/sub-contractor. Results indicated that resources risk factor play a critical role on project time frame in infrastructure projects in soft soil during the construction stage.

  11. The Assessment of Vulnerability of Industrial Parks to Climate Change in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryu, J. E.; Lee, D. K.; Jung, T. Y.; Choi, K. L.; Lee, S. H.

    2014-12-01

    Many countries are developing policy and measures to adapt to climate changes at the national and local levels, but the assessment of vulnerability to climate change and the establishment of countermeasures in the industries considering industrial factors such as worker, infrastructure are insufficient due to the characteristics of diverse processes and fields. In South Korea, the national government provides infrastructures for industrial parks where various companies in manufacturing and other industries are concentrated . Because of their concentration, damages can aggravate in case of natural disasters such as typhoons. In this study, vulnerability indices for climate change were developed and evaluated using climate scenarios for the climate exposure of localized terrential downpour for eight industrial parks. The vulnerability indices were selected and reviewed through literature review and two in-depth interviews with experts in various industries, and the assessment of vulnerability to climate change was conducted by collecting relevant information including the Directory of Industrial Complexes. The vulnerability of each industrial park to climate change was assessed for four time serious such as the base line, 2020s, 2050s, and 2100s . As a result, even though the possibility of localized heavy rain was the highest in Yeosu(Southeast coast) at present, but it was predicted that Gwangyang(Southwest coast) will be higher in the future. For the influences of climate including sensitivity, Ulsan Mipo(Southeast coast) is currently under the highest influence of climate, but the Gumi(Inland area) was forecasted to be under the highest influence of climate in the future. As a result of the assessment of vulnerability to climate change including adaptive capacity, Gumi and Myongji Noksan(Southeast coast) were most vulnerable to localized heavy rain. The degree of vulnerability of all the industrial parks except Ulsan and Yeosu was forecasted to increase in the

  12. Risk assessment by dynamic representation of vulnerability, exploitation, and impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cam, Hasan

    2015-05-01

    Assessing and quantifying cyber risk accurately in real-time is essential to providing security and mission assurance in any system and network. This paper presents a modeling and dynamic analysis approach to assessing cyber risk of a network in real-time by representing dynamically its vulnerabilities, exploitations, and impact using integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. Given the set of vulnerabilities detected by a vulnerability scanner in a network, this paper addresses how its risk can be assessed by estimating in real-time the exploit likelihood and impact of vulnerability exploitation on the network, based on real-time observations and measurements over the network. The dynamic representation of the network in terms of its vulnerabilities, sensor measurements, and observations is constructed dynamically using the integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. The transition rates of outgoing and incoming links of states in hidden Markov models are used in determining exploit likelihood and impact of attacks, whereas emission rates help quantify the attack states of vulnerabilities. Simulation results show the quantification and evolving risk scores over time for individual and aggregated vulnerabilities of a network.

  13. Assessment of Road Infrastructures Pertaining to Malaysian Experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samsuddin Norshakina

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Road Infrastructures contribute towards many severe accidents and it needs supervision as to improve road safety levels. The numbers of fatalities have increased annually and road authority should seriously consider conducting programs or activities to periodically monitor, restore of improve road infrastructure. Implementation of road safety audits may reduce fatalities among road users and maintain road safety at acceptable standards. This paper is aimed to discuss the aspects of road infrastructure in Malaysia. The research signifies the impact of road hazards during the observations and the impact of road infrastructure types on road accidents. The F050 (Jalan Kluang-Batu Pahat road case study showed that infrastructure risk is closely related with number of accident. As the infrastructure risk increase, the number of road accidents also increase. It was also found that different road zones along Jalan Kluang-Batu Pahat showed different level of intersection volume due to number of road intersection. Thus, it is hoped that by implementing continuous assessment on road infrastructures, it might be able to reduce road accidents and fatalities among drives and the community.

  14. Threat Assessment of Potential Terrorist Attacks to the Transport Infrastructure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Nowacki

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents threat assessment of potential terrorist attacks to the transport infrastructure. The range of transportation infrastructure has spread and includes railway, inland waterways, road, maritime, air, intermodal transport infrastructure and intelligent transport systems (ITS. ITS service is the provision of an ITS application through a well-defined organisational and operational framework with the aim of contributing to the user safety, efficiency, comfort and/or to facilitate or support transport and travel operations. Terrorism means acts of violence committed by groups that view themselves as victimized by some notable historical wrong. Although these groups have no formal connection with governments, they usually have the financial and moral backing of sympathetic governments. Typically, they stage unexpected attacks on civilian targets, including transport infrastructure, with the aim of sowing fear and confusion. Based on the analyses, transportation infrastructure is potentially threatened with terrorism attacks, especially road and rail infrastructure (about 23 %, and to a smaller degree the maritime and air transport infrastructure (about 2 %. There were 90,3% of incidents involve land transport (74,5% – vehicles, 9,5% – buses, 6,3% - rail covered the 41-year period 1967-2007 in the USA. Legal steps to fight terrorism have been taken on the international level, furthermore, some institutions have been established for this purpose.

  15. Vulnerability assessments as a political creation: tsunami management in Portugal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pronk, Maartje; Maat, Harro; Crane, Todd A

    2017-10-01

    Vulnerability assessments are a cornerstone of contemporary disaster research. This paper shows how research procedures and the presentation of results of vulnerability assessments are politically filtered. Using data from a study of tsunami risk assessment in Portugal, the paper demonstrates that approaches, measurement instruments, and research procedures for evaluating vulnerability are influenced by institutional preferences, lines of communication, or lack thereof, between stakeholder groups, and available technical expertise. The institutional setting and the pattern of stakeholder interactions form a filter, resulting in a particular conceptualisation of vulnerability, affecting its operationalisation via existing methods and technologies and its institutional embedding. The Portuguese case reveals a conceptualisation that is aligned with perceptions prevalent in national government bureaucracies and the exclusion of local stakeholders owing to selected methodologies and assessment procedures. The decisions taken by actors involved in these areas affect how vulnerability is assessed, and ultimately which vulnerability reduction policies will be recommended in the appraisal. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

  16. Formal Vulnerability Assessment of a maritime transportation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berle, Oyvind; Asbjornslett, Bjorn Egil; Rice, James B.

    2011-01-01

    World trade increasingly relies on longer, larger and more complex supply chains, where maritime transportation is a vital backbone of such operations. Long and complex supply chain systems are more prone to being vulnerable, though through reviews, no specific methods have been found to assess vulnerabilities of a maritime transportation system. Most existing supply chain risk assessment frameworks require risks to be foreseen to be mitigated, rather than giving transportation systems the ability to cope with unforeseen threats and hazards. In assessing cost-efficiency, societal vulnerability versus industrial cost of measures should be included. This conceptual paper presents a structured Formal Vulnerability Assessment (FVA) methodology, seeking to transfer the safety-oriented Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) framework into the domain of maritime supply chain vulnerability. To do so, the following two alterations are made: (1) The focus of the assessment is defined to ensure the ability of the transportation to serve as a throughput mechanism of goods, and to survive and recover from disruptive events. (2) To cope with low-frequency high-impact disruptive scenarios that were not necessarily foreseen, two parallel tracks of risk assessments need to be pursued-the cause-focused risk assessment as in the FSA, and a consequence-focused failure mode approach.

  17. A quantitative method for assessing resilience of interdependent infrastructures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nan, Cen; Sansavini, Giovanni

    2017-01-01

    The importance of understanding system resilience and identifying ways to enhance it, especially for interdependent infrastructures our daily life depends on, has been recognized not only by academics, but also by the corporate and public sectors. During recent years, several methods and frameworks have been proposed and developed to explore applicable techniques to assess and analyze system resilience in a comprehensive way. However, they are often tailored to specific disruptive hazards/events, or fail to properly include all the phases such as absorption, adaptation, and recovery. In this paper, a quantitative method for the assessment of the system resilience is proposed. The method consists of two components: an integrated metric for system resilience quantification and a hybrid modeling approach for representing the failure behavior of infrastructure systems. The feasibility and applicability of the proposed method are tested using an electric power supply system as the exemplary infrastructure. Simulation results highlight that the method proves effective in designing, engineering and improving the resilience of infrastructures. Finally, system resilience is proposed as a proxy to quantify the coupling strength between interdependent infrastructures. - Highlights: • A method for quantifying resilience of interdependent infrastructures is proposed. • It combines multi-layer hybrid modeling and a time-dependent resilience metric. • The feasibility of the proposed method is tested on the electric power supply system. • The method provides insights to decision-makers for strengthening system resilience. • Resilience capabilities can be used to engineer interdependencies between subsystems.

  18. Territorial Vulnerability Assessment Supporting Risk Managing Coastal Areas Due to Tsunami Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Leandro Barros

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Portugal’s coastline extends 1187 km. It is characterized by social, economic and physical conditions that differentiate it from the rest of the territory, including population density, location of infrastructure and support of tourism activities. Therefore, it has a significant exposure if a tsunami occurs. Six coastal study sites with varying characteristics were selected for evaluation in this paper, including two core beach-use areas, two residential areas and two industrial areas. These sites are located in the municipalities of Figueira da Foz, Setúbal and Vila do Bispo. The analysis began with the calculation of the potential tsunami inundation area for each site using the 1755 Lisbon tsunami. Next, a methodology distinguished by its multidimensional character was applied to assess local vulnerability to tsunamis. This methodology assesses vulnerabilities associated with morphological, structural, social and tax factors. These four vulnerability components were combined to obtain a Composite Vulnerability Index (CVI, which enabled us to identify the most vulnerable areas and to determine the distinguishing characteristics of each area.

  19. Environmental impact assessment of rail infrastructure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-29

    This project resulted in three products: a comprehensive "Sustainable Rail Checklist," a rail planning GIS database, and a web GIS tool that integrates sustainability metrics and facilitates a rapid assessment before a formal NEPA process is implemen...

  20. An Integrated Method of Supply Chains Vulnerability Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiaguo Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Supply chain vulnerability identification and evaluation are extremely important to mitigate the supply chain risk. We present an integrated method to assess the supply chain vulnerability. The potential failure mode of the supply chain vulnerability is analyzed through the SCOR model. Combining the fuzzy theory and the gray theory, the correlation degree of each vulnerability indicator can be calculated and the target improvements can be carried out. In order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, we use Kendall’s tau coefficient to measure the effect of different methods. The result shows that the presented method has the highest consistency in the assessment compared with the other two methods.

  1. Quantitative Vulnerability Assessment of Cyber Security for Distribution Automation Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaming Ye

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The distribution automation system (DAS is vulnerable to cyber-attacks due to the widespread use of terminal devices and standard communication protocols. On account of the cost of defense, it is impossible to ensure the security of every device in the DAS. Given this background, a novel quantitative vulnerability assessment model of cyber security for DAS is developed in this paper. In the assessment model, the potential physical consequences of cyber-attacks are analyzed from two levels: terminal device level and control center server level. Then, the attack process is modeled based on game theory and the relationships among different vulnerabilities are analyzed by introducing a vulnerability adjacency matrix. Finally, the application process of the proposed methodology is illustrated through a case study based on bus 2 of the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS. The results demonstrate the reasonability and effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

  2. Assessing the likely impacts of climate change on infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holper, Paul; Nolan, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Full text: In 2005, the Victorian Government contracted CSIRO, Maunsell Australia and Phillips Fox to undertake an overview assessment of the likely impacts of climate change on the State's infrastructure, establish the categories of infrastructure most at risk and outline opportunities for adaptation responses. The Government released the assessment in May 2007. Climate change poses a significant risk to infrastructure and its owners, managers and long-term operators. The work was undertaken on the basis that it should not be assumed that future climate and its impacts will simply be an extension of what has been experienced in the past. Major infrastructure items have long useful life spans (20-100 years). A bridge built today is expected to still be in use in tens, if not hundreds, of years. This means that recognition of likely climate change impacts and appropriate adaptation measures should occur now. Recognition of the risks associated with climate change is a valuable first step towards better planning of new infrastructure investments and reducing potential damage to existing infrastructure.lnfrastructure types examined were water, power, telecommunications, transport and buildings. The climate change projections used in this report are based on CSIRO climate modelling, supported by findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climatic and other variables considered were temperature, rainfall, available moisture, humidity, winds, fire-weather frequency and intensity, solar radiation levels and sea-level rise. For each climate change variable identified, we described a worst-case impact for low and high climate change projections for the years 2030 and 2070. The assessment was made on the basis of 'business as usual' with no adaptation responses to climate change. The report also details the current governance structures associated with each infrastructure type. Overall, the report assessed the likely impact of climate change on

  3. Vulnerability assessment of atmospheric environment driven by human impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Ding, Feng; Li, Yu; He, Li

    2016-11-15

    Atmospheric environment quality worsening is a substantial threat to public health worldwide, and in many places, air pollution due to the intensification of the human activity is increasing dramatically. However, no studies have been investigated the integration of vulnerability assessment and atmospheric environment driven by human impacts. The objective of this study was to identify and prioritize the undesirable environmental changes as an early warning system for environment managers and decision makers in term of human, atmospheric environment, and social economic elements. We conduct a vulnerability assessment method of atmospheric environment associated with human impact, this method integrates spatial context of Geographic Information System (GIS) tool, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method, ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators under the Exposure-Sensitivity- Adaptive Capacity (ESA) framework. Decision makers can find out relevant vulnerability assessment results with different vulnerable attitudes. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China, we further applied this developed method and proved it to be reliable and consistent with the China Environmental Status Bulletin. Results indicate that the vulnerability of atmospheric environment in the BTH region is not optimistic, and environment managers should do more about air pollution. Thus, the most appropriate strategic decision and development program of city or state can be picked out assisting by the vulnerable results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Fiscal Feasibility Assessment Applied to Transport Infrastructure Projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guilherme de Aragão, J.J.; Santos Fontes Pereira, L. dos; Yamashita, Y.; Brandão, R.

    2016-07-01

    The demand for transport infrastructure investment is a latent issue for several countries, mainly for developing countries. However, investments in major logistics projects should be carefully evaluated, in order that their deployment induces development without endangering fiscal sustainability by excessive public indebtedness. Fiscal accounting practices used currently in the feasibility studies of transport infrastructures in Brazil are very limited, as they do not consider indirect and induced effects of the infrastructure investment in the fiscal evaluation. In addition, the corresponding influence area has not an established delimitation method. The aim of the present paper is to develop a model for calculating economic and fiscal impacts of transport infrastructure investment projects that includes the direct, indirect and induced effects within a reference area do be determined. First, different project assessment guides in Brazil and abroad are examined with a special focus on the assessment of economic and fiscal impacts of the projects. Based on the assessment experience and on the definition of the fiscal balance of an infrastructure project, the next step sets up a framework for the calculation of the impacts, using more simplified data. (Author)

  5. Improving tag/seal technologies: the vulnerability assessment component

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, J.L.

    1996-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE), specifically the Office of Nonproliferation and National Security, has sponsored the development of numerous tag and seal technologies for high-security/high-valued applications. One important component in this technology development effort has been the continuous integration of vulnerability assessments. The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) has been the lead laboratory for vulnerability assessments of fiber-optic-based tag/seal technologies. This paper presents a brief historical overview and the current status of the DOE high-security tag/seal development program and discusses INEL's adversarial role and assessment philosophy. Verification testing criteria used to define ''successful'' tampering attempts/attacks are discussed. Finally, the advantages of integrating a vulnerability assessment into the development of commercial security tag/seals are presented

  6. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Document Server

    A.Gaddi

    2011-01-01

    Between the end of March to June 2011, there has been no detector downtime during proton fills due to CMS Infrastructures failures. This exceptional performance is a clear sign of the high quality work done by the CMS Infrastructures unit and its supporting teams. Powering infrastructure At the end of March, the EN/EL group observed a problem with the CMS 48 V system. The problem was a lack of isolation between the negative (return) terminal and earth. Although at that moment we were not seeing any loss of functionality, in the long term it would have led to severe disruption to the CMS power system. The 48 V system is critical to the operation of CMS: in addition to feeding the anti-panic lights, essential for the safety of the underground areas, it powers all the PLCs (Twidos) that control AC power to the racks and front-end electronics of CMS. A failure of the 48 V system would bring down the whole detector and lead to evacuation of the cavern. EN/EL technicians have made an accurate search of the fault, ...

  7. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    A. Gaddi and P. Tropea

    2011-01-01

    Most of the work relating to Infrastructure has been concentrated in the new CSC and RPC manufactory at building 904, on the Prevessin site. Brand new gas distribution, powering and HVAC infrastructures are being deployed and the production of the first CSC chambers has started. Other activities at the CMS site concern the installation of a new small crane bridge in the Cooling technical room in USC55, in order to facilitate the intervention of the maintenance team in case of major failures of the chilled water pumping units. The laser barrack in USC55 has been also the object of a study, requested by the ECAL community, for the new laser system that shall be delivered in few months. In addition, ordinary maintenance works have been performed during the short machine stops on all the main infrastructures at Point 5 and in preparation to the Year-End Technical Stop (YETS), when most of the systems will be carefully inspected in order to ensure a smooth running through the crucial year 2012. After the incide...

  8. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    A. Gaddi and P. Tropea

    2012-01-01

    The CMS Infrastructures teams are preparing for the LS1 activities. A long list of maintenance, consolidation and upgrade projects for CMS Infrastructures is on the table and is being discussed among Technical Coordination and sub-detector representatives. Apart from the activities concerning the cooling infrastructures (see below), two main projects have started: the refurbishment of the SX5 building, from storage area to RP storage and Muon stations laboratory; and the procurement of a new dry-gas (nitrogen and dry air) plant for inner detector flushing. We briefly present here the work done on the first item, leaving the second one for the next CMS Bulletin issue. The SX5 building is entering its third era, from main assembly building for CMS from 2000 to 2007, to storage building from 2008 to 2012, to RP storage and Muon laboratory during LS1 and beyond. A wall of concrete blocks has been erected to limit the RP zone, while the rest of the surface has been split between the ME1/1 and the CSC/DT laborat...

  9. Regulatory Guide on Conducting a Security Vulnerability Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ek, David R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-01-01

    This document will provide guidelines on conducting a security vulnerability assessment at a facility regulated by the Radiation Protection Centre. The guidelines provide a performance approach assess security effectiveness. The guidelines provide guidance for a review following the objectives outlined in IAEA NSS#11 for Category 1, 2, & 3 sources.

  10. Impact Assessment of Its Applications for Vulnerable Road Users

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholliers, J.; Noort, M. van; Johansson, C.; Mans, D.; Silla, A.; Bell, D.; Hancox, G.; Leden, L.; Giannelos, I.; Bax, B.; Malone, K.

    2016-01-01

    The EU-sponsored VRUITS project has prioritized ITS applications which have a potential to improve the safety, mobility and comfort of vulnerable road users (VRUs) and performed a quantitative safety, mobility and comfort assessment for the 10 most promising systems. The assessment methodology

  11. Impact assessment of ITS applications for vulnerable road users.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholliers, J. Noort, M. van Johansson, C. Mans, D. Silla, A. Bell, D. Hancox, G. Leden, L. Giannelos, I. Bax, B. & Malone, K.

    2017-01-01

    The EU-sponsored VRUITS project has prioritized ITS applications which have a potential to improve the safety, mobility and comfort of vulnerable road users (VRUs) and performed a quantitative safety, mobility and comfort assessment for the 10 most promising systems. The assessment methodology

  12. Assessing Vulnerability to Heat: A Geospatial Analysis for the City of Philadelphia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Barron

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Urban heat island (UHI effect is an increasingly prominent health and environmental hazard that is linked to urbanization and climate change. Greening reduces the negative impacts of UHI; trees specifically are the most effective in ambient temperature reduction. This paper investigates vulnerability to heat in the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and identifies where street trees can be planted as a public intervention. We used geospatial information systems (GIS software to map a validated Heat Vulnerability Index to identify vulnerability at the block level. Using a high-low geospatial cluster analysis, we assessed where the City of Philadelphia can most effectively plant street trees to address UHI. This information was then aggregated to the neighborhood level for more effective citizen communication and policymaking. We identified that 26 of 48 (54% neighborhoods that were vulnerable to heat also lacked street trees. Of 158 Philadelphia neighborhoods, 63 (40% contained block groups of high vulnerability to either heat or street tree infrastructure. Neighborhoods that were ranked highest in both classifications were identified in two adjacent West Philadelphia neighborhoods. Planting street trees is a public service a city can potentially reduce the negative health impacts of UHI. GIS can be used to identify and recommend street tree plantings to reduce urban heat.

  13. Assessing Hazard Vulnerability, Habitat Conservation, and Restoration for the Enhancement of Mainland China's Coastal Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sajjad, Muhammad; Li, Yangfan; Tang, Zhenghong; Cao, Ling; Liu, Xiaoping

    2018-03-01

    Worldwide, humans are facing high risks from natural hazards, especially in coastal regions with high population densities. Rising sea levels due to global warming are making coastal communities' infrastructure vulnerable to natural disasters. The present study aims to provide a coupling approach of vulnerability and resilience through restoration and conservation of lost or degraded coastal natural habitats to reclamation under different climate change scenarios. The integrated valuation of ecosystems and tradeoffs model is used to assess the current and future vulnerability of coastal communities. The model employed is based on seven different biogeophysical variables to calculate a natural hazard index and to highlight the criticality of the restoration of natural habitats. The results show that roughly 25% of the coastline and more than 5 million residents are in highly vulnerable coastal areas of mainland China, and these numbers are expected to double by 2100. Our study suggests that restoration and conservation in recently reclaimed areas have the potential to reduce this vulnerability by 45%. Hence, natural habitats have proved to be a great defense against coastal hazards and should be prioritized in coastal planning and development. The findings confirm that natural habitats are critical for coastal resilience and can act as a recovery force of coastal functionality loss. Therefore, we recommend that the Chinese government prioritizes restoration (where possible) and conservation of the remaining habitats for the sake of coastal resilience to prevent natural hazards from escalating into disasters.

  14. Vulnerability studies and integrated assessments for hazard risk reduction in Pittsburgh, PA (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klima, K.

    2013-12-01

    Today's environmental problems stretch beyond the bounds of most academic disciplines, and thus solutions require an interdisciplinary approach. For instance, the scientific consensus is changes in the frequency and severity of many types of extreme weather events are increasing (IPCC 2012). Yet despite our efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, we continue to experience severe weather events such as Superstorm Sandy, record heat and blizzards, and droughts. These natural hazards, combined with increased vulnerability and exposure, result in longer-lasting disruptions to critical infrastructure and business continuity throughout the world. In order to protect both our lives and the economy, we must think beyond the bounds of any one discipline to include an integrated assessment of relevant work. In the wake of recent events, New York City, Washington, DC, Chicago, and a myriad of other cities have turned to their academic powerhouses for assistance in better understanding their vulnerabilities. This talk will share a case study of the state of integrated assessments and vulnerability studies of energy, transportation, water, real estate, and other main sectors in Pittsburgh, PA. Then the talk will use integrated assessment models and other vulnerability studies to create coordinated sets of climate projections for use by the many public agencies and private-sector organizations in the region.

  15. Assessing the social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bizimana, Jean-Pierre; Twarabamenye, Emmanuel; Kienberger, Stefan

    2015-01-07

    Since 2004, malaria interventions in Rwanda have resulted in substantial decline of malaria incidence. However, this achievement is fragile as potentials for local malaria transmissions remain. The risk of getting malaria infection is partially explained by social conditions of vulnerable populations. Since vulnerability to malaria is both influenced by social and environmental factors, its complexity cannot be measured by a single value. The aim of this paper is, therefore, to apply a composite indicator approach for assessing social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda. This assessment informs the decision-makers in targeting malaria interventions and allocating limited resources to reduce malaria burden in Rwanda. A literature review was used to conceptualize the social vulnerability to malaria and to select the appropriate vulnerability indicators. Indicators used in the index creation were classified into susceptibility and lack of resilience vulnerability domains. The main steps followed include selection of indicators and datasets, imputation of missing values, descriptive statistics, normalization and weighting of indicators, local sensitivity analysis and indicators aggregation. Correlation analysis helped to empirically evidence the association between the indicators and malaria incidence. The high values of social vulnerability to malaria are found in Gicumbi, Rusizi, Nyaruguru and Gisagara, and low values in Muhanga, Nyarugenge, Kicukiro and Nyanza. The most influential susceptibility indicators to increase malaria are population change (r = 0.729), average number of persons per bedroom (r = 0.531), number of households affected by droughts and famines (r = 0.591), and area used for irrigation (r = 0.611). The bed net ownership (r = -0.398) and poor housing wall materials (0.378) are the lack of resilience indicators that significantly correlate with malaria incidence. The developed composite index social vulnerability to malaria

  16. Assessing vulnerability to drought: identifying underlying factors across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urquijo, Julia; Gonzalez Tánago, Itziar; Ballesteros, Mario; De Stefano, Lucia

    2015-04-01

    Drought is considered one of the most severe and damaging natural hazards in terms of people and sectors affected and associated losses. Drought is a normal and recurrent climatic phenomenon that occurs worldwide, although its spatial and temporal characteristics vary significantly among climates. In the case of Europe, in the last thirty years, the region has suffered several drought events that have caused estimated economic damages over a €100 billion and have affected almost 20% of its territory and population. In recent years, there has been a growing awareness among experts and authorities of the need to shift from a reactive crisis approach to a drought risk management approach, as well as of the importance of designing and implementing policies, strategies and plans at country and river basin levels to deal with drought. The identification of whom and what is vulnerable to drought is a central aspect of drought risk mitigation and planning and several authors agree that societal vulnerability often determines drought risk more than the actual precipitation shortfalls. The final aim of a drought vulnerability assessment is to identify the underlying sources of drought impact, in order to develop policy options that help to enhance coping capacity and therefore to prevent drought impact. This study identifies and maps factors underlying vulnerability to drought across Europe. The identification of factors influencing vulnerability starts from the analysis of past drought impacts in four European socioeconomic sectors. This analysis, along with an extensive literature review, led to the selection of vulnerability factors that are both relevant and adequate for the European context. Adopting the IPCC model, vulnerability factors were grouped to describe exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The aggregation of these components has resulted in the mapping of vulnerability to drought across Europe at NUTS02 level. Final results have been compared with

  17. Assessment of Logistics effects from Transport Infrastructure Investments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holvad, Torben; Salling, Kim Bang

    2004-01-01

    on the basis of the importance of this research area from a societal and economic viewpoint. This paper aims to identify a framework for assessment of logistic effects from transport infrastructure investment such that these effects can be integrated into the appraisal methodologies. Particular attention...

  18. Interpreting transnational infrastructure vulnerability: European blackout and the historical dynamics of transnational electricity governance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vleuten, Erik van der; Lagendijk, Vincent

    2010-01-01

    Recent transnational blackouts exposed two radically opposed interpretations of Europe's electricity infrastructure, which inform recent and ongoing negotiations on transnational electricity governance. To EU policy makers such blackouts revealed the fragility of Europe's power grids and the need of a more centralized form of governance, thus legitimizing recent EU interventions. Yet to power sector spokespersons, these events confirmed the reliability of transnational power grids and the traditional decentralized governance model: the disturbances were quickly contained and repaired. This paper inquires the historic legacies at work in these conflicting interpretations and associated transnational governance preferences. It traces the power sector's interpretation to its building of a secure transnational power grid from the 1950s through the era of neoliberalization. Next it places the EU interpretation and associated policy measures against the historical record of EU attempts at transnational infrastructure governance. Uncovering the historical roots and embedding of both interpretations, we conclude that their divergence is of a surprisingly recent date and relates to the current era of security thinking. Finally we recommend transnational, interpretative, and historical analysis to the field of critical infrastructure studies.

  19. The Vulnerability Assessment Code for Physical Protection System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Sung Soon; Yoo, Ho Sik

    2007-01-01

    To neutralize the increasing terror threats, nuclear facilities have strong physical protection system (PPS). PPS includes detectors, door locks, fences, regular guard patrols, and a hot line to a nearest military force. To design an efficient PPS and to fully operate it, vulnerability assessment process is required. Evaluating PPS of a nuclear facility is complicate process and, hence, several assessment codes have been developed. The estimation of adversary sequence interruption (EASI) code analyzes vulnerability along a single intrusion path. To evaluate many paths to a valuable asset in an actual facility, the systematic analysis of vulnerability to intrusion (SAVI) code was developed. KAERI improved SAVI and made the Korean analysis of vulnerability to intrusion (KAVI) code. Existing codes (SAVI and KAVI) have limitations in representing the distance of a facility because they use the simplified model of a PPS called adversary sequence diagram. In adversary sequence diagram the position of doors, sensors and fences is described just as the locating area. Thus, the distance between elements is inaccurate and we cannot reflect the range effect of sensors. In this abstract, we suggest accurate and intuitive vulnerability assessment based on raster map modeling of PPS. The raster map of PPS accurately represents the relative position of elements and, thus, the range effect of sensor can be easily incorporable. Most importantly, the raster map is easy to understand

  20. Probabilistic seismic vulnerability and risk assessment of stone masonry structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abo El Ezz, Ahmad

    Earthquakes represent major natural hazards that regularly impact the built environment in seismic prone areas worldwide and cause considerable social and economic losses. The high losses incurred following the past destructive earthquakes promoted the need for assessment of the seismic vulnerability and risk of the existing buildings. Many historic buildings in the old urban centers in Eastern Canada such as Old Quebec City are built of stone masonry and represent un-measurable architectural and cultural heritage. These buildings were built to resist gravity loads only and generally offer poor resistance to lateral seismic loads. Seismic vulnerability assessment of stone masonry buildings is therefore the first necessary step in developing seismic retrofitting and pre-disaster mitigation plans. The objective of this study is to develop a set of probability-based analytical tools for efficient seismic vulnerability and uncertainty analysis of stone masonry buildings. A simplified probabilistic analytical methodology for vulnerability modelling of stone masonry building with systematic treatment of uncertainties throughout the modelling process is developed in the first part of this study. Building capacity curves are developed using a simplified mechanical model. A displacement based procedure is used to develop damage state fragility functions in terms of spectral displacement response based on drift thresholds of stone masonry walls. A simplified probabilistic seismic demand analysis is proposed to capture the combined uncertainty in capacity and demand on fragility functions. In the second part, a robust analytical procedure for the development of seismic hazard compatible fragility and vulnerability functions is proposed. The results are given by sets of seismic hazard compatible vulnerability functions in terms of structure-independent intensity measure (e.g. spectral acceleration) that can be used for seismic risk analysis. The procedure is very efficient for

  1. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    A. Gaddi

    2012-01-01

    The CMS Infrastructures teams are constantly ensuring the smooth operation of the different services during this critical period when the detector is taking data at full speed. A single failure would spoil hours of high luminosity beam and everything is put in place to avoid such an eventuality. In the meantime however, the fast approaching LS1 requires that we take a look at the various activities to take place from the end of the year onwards. The list of infrastructures consolidation and upgrade tasks is already long and will touch all the services (cooling, gas, inertion, powering, etc.). The definitive list will be available just before the LS1 start. One activity performed by the CMS cooling team that is worth mentioning is the maintenance of the cooling circuits at the CMS Electronics Integration Centre (EIC) at building 904. The old chiller has been replaced by a three-units cooling plant that also serves the HVAC system for the new CSC and RPC factories. The commissioning of this new plant has tak...

  2. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    Andrea Gaddi

    2010-01-01

    In addition to the intense campaign of replacement of the leaky bushing on the Endcap circuits, other important activities have also been completed, with the aim of enhancing the overall reliability of the cooling infrastructures at CMS. Remaining with the Endcap circuit, the regulating valve that supplies cold water to the primary side of the circuit heat-exchanger, is not well adapted in flow capability and a new part has been ordered, to be installed during a stop of LHC. The instrumentation monitoring of the refilling rate of the circuits has been enhanced and we can now detect leaks as small as 0.5 cc/sec, on circuits that have nominal flow rates of some 20 litres/sec. Another activity starting now that the technical stop is over is the collection of spare parts that are difficult to find on the market. These will be stored at P5 with the aim of reducing down-time in case of component failure. Concerning the ventilation infrastructures, it has been noticed that in winter time the relative humidity leve...

  3. Data management for geospatial vulnerability assessment of interdependencies in US power generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shih, C.Y.; Scown, C.D.; Soibelman, L.; Matthews, H.S.; Garrett, J.H.; Dodrill, K.; McSurdy, S. [Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA (United States). Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering

    2009-09-15

    Critical infrastructures maintain our society's stability, security, and quality of life. These systems are also interdependent, which means that the disruption of one infrastructure system can significantly impact the operation of other systems. Because of the heavy reliance on electricity production, it is important to assess possible vulnerabilities. Determining the source of these vulnerabilities can provide insight for risk management and emergency response efforts. This research uses data warehousing and visualization techniques to explore the interdependencies between coal mines, rail transportation, and electric power plants. By merging geospatial and nonspatial data, we are able to model the potential impacts of a disruption to one or more mines, rail lines, or power plants, and visually display the results using a geographical information system. A scenario involving a severe earthquake in the New Madrid Seismic Zone is used to demonstrate the capabilities of the model when given input in the form of a potentially impacted area. This type of interactive analysis can help decision makers to understand the vulnerabilities of the coal distribution network and the potential impact it can have on electricity production.

  4. Assessing large-scale wildlife responses to human infrastructure development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Aurora; Jaeger, Jochen A G; Alonso, Juan Carlos

    2016-07-26

    Habitat loss and deterioration represent the main threats to wildlife species, and are closely linked to the expansion of roads and human settlements. Unfortunately, large-scale effects of these structures remain generally overlooked. Here, we analyzed the European transportation infrastructure network and found that 50% of the continent is within 1.5 km of transportation infrastructure. We present a method for assessing the impacts from infrastructure on wildlife, based on functional response curves describing density reductions in birds and mammals (e.g., road-effect zones), and apply it to Spain as a case study. The imprint of infrastructure extends over most of the country (55.5% in the case of birds and 97.9% for mammals), with moderate declines predicted for birds (22.6% of individuals) and severe declines predicted for mammals (46.6%). Despite certain limitations, we suggest the approach proposed is widely applicable to the evaluation of effects of planned infrastructure developments under multiple scenarios, and propose an internationally coordinated strategy to update and improve it in the future.

  5. Assessing and managing freshwater ecosystems vulnerable to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Birge, Hannah E.; Drakare, Stina; McKie, Brendan G.; Johnson, Richard K.

    2014-01-01

    Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.

  6. Participatory flood vulnerability assessment: a multi-criteria approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. M. de Brito

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a participatory multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM approach for flood vulnerability assessment while considering the relationships between vulnerability criteria. The applicability of the proposed framework is demonstrated in the municipalities of Lajeado and Estrela, Brazil. The model was co-constructed by 101 experts from governmental organizations, universities, research institutes, NGOs, and private companies. Participatory methods such as the Delphi survey, focus groups, and workshops were applied. A participatory problem structuration, in which the modellers work closely with end users, was used to establish the structure of the vulnerability index. The preferences of each participant regarding the criteria importance were spatially modelled through the analytical hierarchy process (AHP and analytical network process (ANP multi-criteria methods. Experts were also involved at the end of the modelling exercise for validation. The final product is a set of individual and group flood vulnerability maps. Both AHP and ANP proved to be effective for flood vulnerability assessment; however, ANP is preferred as it considers the dependences among criteria. The participatory approach enabled experts to learn from each other and acknowledge different perspectives towards social learning. The findings highlight that to enhance the credibility and deployment of model results, multiple viewpoints should be integrated without forcing consensus.

  7. Vulnerability assessment for reinforced concrete buildings exposed to landslides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mavrouli, O.; Corominas, J.; Fotopoulou, S.; Pitilakis, K.; Zuccaro, G.; Cacace, F.; De Gregorio, D.; Santo, A.; Di Crescenzo, G.; Foerster, E.; Ulrich, T.

    2014-01-01

    The methodologies available for the analytical quantification of the vulnerability of buildings which are subject to actions resulting from slope instabilities and landslides are relatively limited in comparison with other components of quantitative landslide risk assessment. This paper provides a general methodology for calculating the vulnerabilities of reinforced concrete frame structures that are subject to three types of slope instability: slow-moving landslides, rapid flow-type slides and rock falls. The vulnerability is expressed using sets of fragility curves. A description of the general framework and of the specialised procedures employed is presented here, separately for each landslide mechanism, through the example of a single-bay one-storey reinforced concrete frame. The properties of the frame are taken into account as variables with associated uncertainties. The derived vulnerability curves presented here can be used directly by risk assessment practitioners without having to repeat the procedure, given the expected range of landslide intensities and for similar building typologies and ranges of structural characteristics. This permits the applicability of the calculated vulnerability to a wide variety of similar frames for a range of landslide intensity parameters. (authors)

  8. Participatory flood vulnerability assessment: a multi-criteria approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madruga de Brito, Mariana; Evers, Mariele; Delos Santos Almoradie, Adrian

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents a participatory multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach for flood vulnerability assessment while considering the relationships between vulnerability criteria. The applicability of the proposed framework is demonstrated in the municipalities of Lajeado and Estrela, Brazil. The model was co-constructed by 101 experts from governmental organizations, universities, research institutes, NGOs, and private companies. Participatory methods such as the Delphi survey, focus groups, and workshops were applied. A participatory problem structuration, in which the modellers work closely with end users, was used to establish the structure of the vulnerability index. The preferences of each participant regarding the criteria importance were spatially modelled through the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and analytical network process (ANP) multi-criteria methods. Experts were also involved at the end of the modelling exercise for validation. The final product is a set of individual and group flood vulnerability maps. Both AHP and ANP proved to be effective for flood vulnerability assessment; however, ANP is preferred as it considers the dependences among criteria. The participatory approach enabled experts to learn from each other and acknowledge different perspectives towards social learning. The findings highlight that to enhance the credibility and deployment of model results, multiple viewpoints should be integrated without forcing consensus.

  9. Vulnerability Assessment of Water Supply Systems: Status, Gaps and Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheater, H. S.

    2015-12-01

    Conventional frameworks for assessing the impacts of climate change on water resource systems use cascades of climate and hydrological models to provide 'top-down' projections of future water availability, but these are subject to high uncertainty and are model and scenario-specific. Hence there has been recent interest in 'bottom-up' frameworks, which aim to evaluate system vulnerability to change in the context of possible future climate and/or hydrological conditions. Such vulnerability assessments are generic, and can be combined with updated information from top-down assessments as they become available. While some vulnerability methods use hydrological models to estimate water availability, fully bottom-up schemes have recently been proposed that directly map system vulnerability as a function of feasible changes in water supply characteristics. These use stochastic algorithms, based on reconstruction or reshuffling methods, by which multiple water supply realizations can be generated under feasible ranges of change in water supply conditions. The paper reports recent successes, and points to areas of future improvement. Advances in stochastic modeling and optimization can address some technical limitations in flow reconstruction, while various data mining and system identification techniques can provide possibilities to better condition realizations for consistency with top-down scenarios. Finally, we show that probabilistic and Bayesian frameworks together can provide a potential basis to combine information obtained from fully bottom-up analyses with projections available from climate and/or hydrological models in a fully integrated risk assessment framework for deep uncertainty.

  10. Assessment of Vulnerability of Farming Households to Climate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment of Vulnerability of Farming Households to Climate Change in Ekiti State, Nigeria. ... Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management ... Results of the study indicated that the farming households in Ekiti State witnessed change in weather conditions as reflected in unusual downpour of rain thus ...

  11. Remote Sensing and GIS Assessment of Flood Vulnerability of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Lokoja, the Kogi state capital, is located at the Niger-Benue confluence. Hazards erupt when human activities in the confluence area are not properly managed. This article uses the Remote Sensing and GIS technique to assess the flood vulnerability zones of the town using the bench mark minimum and maximum water ...

  12. How to Assess Vulnerabilities of Water Policies to Global Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, A.; Haasnoot, M.; Weijs, S.

    2017-12-01

    Water managers are confronted with uncertainties arising from hydrological, societal, economical and political drivers. To manage these uncertainties two paradigms have been identified: top-down and bottom-up approaches. Top-down or prediction-based approaches use socio-economic scenarios together with a discrete set of GCM projections (often downscaled) to assess the expected impact of drivers and policies on water resource system through various hydrological and social systems models. Adaptation strategies to alleviate these impacts are then identified and tested against the scenarios. To address GCM and downscaling uncertainties, these approaches put more focus on climate predictions, rather than the decision problem itself. Triggered by the wish to have a more scenario-neutral approach and address downscaling uncertainties, recent analyses have been shifted towards vulnerability-based (bottom-up or decision-centric) approaches. They begin at the local scale by addressing socio-economic responses to climate, often involving stakeholder's input; identify vulnerabilities under a larger sample of plausible futures and evaluate sensitivity and robustness of possible adaptation options. Several bottom-up approaches have emerged so far and are increasingly recommended. Fundamentally they share several core ideas, however, subtle differences exist in vulnerability assessment, visualization tools for exploring vulnerabilities and computational methods used for identifying robust water policies. Through this study, we try to identify how these approaches are progressing, how the climate and non-climate uncertainties are being confronted and how to integrate existing and new tools. We find that choice of a method may depend on the number of vulnerability drivers identified and type of threshold levels (environmental conditions or policy objectives) defined. Certain approaches are suited well for assessing adaptive capacities, tipping points and sequencing of decisions

  13. Groundwater vulnerability assessment in karstic aquifers using COP method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagherzadeh, Somayeh; Kalantari, Nasrollah; Nobandegani, Amir Fadaei; Derakhshan, Zahra; Conti, Gea Oliveri; Ferrante, Margherita; Malekahmadi, Roya

    2018-05-02

    Access to safe and reliable drinking water is amongst the important indicators of development in each society, and water scarcity is one of the challenges and limitations affecting development at national and regional levels and social life and economic activity areas. Generally, there are two types of drinking water sources: the first type is surface waters, including lakes, rivers, and streams and the second type is groundwaters existing in aquifers. Amongst aquifers, karst aquifers play an important role in supplying water sources of the world. Therefore, protecting these aquifers from pollution sources is of paramount importance. COP method is amongst the methods to investigate the intrinsic vulnerability of this type of aquifers, so that areas susceptible to contamination can be determined before being contaminated and these sources can be protected. In the present study, COP method was employed in order to spot the regions that are prone to contamination in the region. This method uses the properties of overlying geological layers above the water table (O factor), the concentration of flow (C factor), and precipitation (P factor) over the aquifer, as the parameters to assess the intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater resources. In this regard, geographical information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) were utilized to prepare the mentioned factors and the intrinsic vulnerability map was obtained. The results of COP method indicated that the northwest and the west of the region are highly and very vulnerable. This study indicated that regions with low vulnerability were observed in eastern areas, which accounted for 15.6% of the area. Moderate vulnerability was 40% and related to the northeast and southeast of the area. High vulnerability was 38.2% and related to western and southwestern regions. Very high vulnerability was 6.2% and related to the northwest of the area. By means of the analysis of sensitivity of the model, it was determined that the focus

  14. Development of safety related technology and infrastructure for safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Venkat Raj, V.

    1997-01-01

    Development and optimum utilisation of any technology calls for the building up of the necessary infrastructure and backup facilities. This is particularly true for a developing country like India and more so for an advanced technology like nuclear technology. Right from the inception of its nuclear power programme, the Indian approach has been to develop adequate infrastructure in various areas such as design, construction, manufacture, installation, commissioning and safety assessment of nuclear plants. This paper deals with the development of safety related technology and the relevant infrastructure for safety assessment. A number of computer codes for safety assessment have been developed or adapted in the areas of thermal hydraulics, structural dynamics etc. These codes have undergone extensive validation through data generated in the experimental facilities set up in India as well as participation in international standard problem exercises. Side by side with the development of the tools for safety assessment, the development of safety related technology was also given equal importance. Many of the technologies required for the inspection, ageing assessment and estimation of the residual life of various components and equipment, particularly those having a bearing on safety, were developed. This paper highlights, briefly, the work carried out in some of the areas mentioned above. (author)

  15. Potential of 3D City Models to assess flood vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröter, Kai; Bochow, Mathias; Schüttig, Martin; Nagel, Claus; Ross, Lutz; Kreibich, Heidi

    2016-04-01

    Vulnerability, as the product of exposure and susceptibility, is a key factor of the flood risk equation. Furthermore, the estimation of flood loss is very sensitive to the choice of the vulnerability model. Still, in contrast to elaborate hazard simulations, vulnerability is often considered in a simplified manner concerning the spatial resolution and geo-location of exposed objects as well as the susceptibility of these objects at risk. Usually, area specific potential flood loss is quantified on the level of aggregated land-use classes, and both hazard intensity and resistance characteristics of affected objects are represented in highly simplified terms. We investigate the potential of 3D City Models and spatial features derived from remote sensing data to improve the differentiation of vulnerability in flood risk assessment. 3D City Models are based on CityGML, an application scheme of the Geography Markup Language (GML), which represents the 3D geometry, 3D topology, semantics and appearance of objects on different levels of detail. As such, 3D City Models offer detailed spatial information which is useful to describe the exposure and to characterize the susceptibility of residential buildings at risk. This information is further consolidated with spatial features of the building stock derived from remote sensing data. Using this database a spatially detailed flood vulnerability model is developed by means of data-mining. Empirical flood damage data are used to derive and to validate flood susceptibility models for individual objects. We present first results from a prototype application in the city of Dresden, Germany. The vulnerability modeling based on 3D City Models and remote sensing data is compared i) to the generally accepted good engineering practice based on area specific loss potential and ii) to a highly detailed representation of flood vulnerability based on a building typology using urban structure types. Comparisons are drawn in terms of

  16. Spatial vulnerability assessments by regression kriging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pásztor, László; Laborczi, Annamária; Takács, Katalin; Szatmári, Gábor

    2016-04-01

    information representing IEW or GRP forming environmental factors were taken into account to support the spatial inference of the locally experienced IEW frequency and measured GRP values respectively. An efficient spatial prediction methodology was applied to construct reliable maps, namely regression kriging (RK) using spatially exhaustive auxiliary data on soil, geology, topography, land use and climate. RK divides the spatial inference into two parts. Firstly the deterministic component of the target variable is determined by a regression model. The residuals of the multiple linear regression analysis represent the spatially varying but dependent stochastic component, which are interpolated by kriging. The final map is the sum of the two component predictions. Application of RK also provides the possibility of inherent accuracy assessment. The resulting maps are characterized by global and local measures of its accuracy. Additionally the method enables interval estimation for spatial extension of the areas of predefined risk categories. All of these outputs provide useful contribution to spatial planning, action planning and decision making. Acknowledgement: Our work was partly supported by the Hungarian National Scientific Research Foundation (OTKA, Grant No. K105167).

  17. Development of an Automated Security Risk Assessment Methodology Tool for Critical Infrastructures.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, Calvin Dell; Roehrig, Nathaniel S.; Torres, Teresa M.

    2008-12-01

    This document presents the security automated Risk Assessment Methodology (RAM) prototype tool developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). This work leverages SNL's capabilities and skills in security risk analysis and the development of vulnerability assessment/risk assessment methodologies to develop an automated prototype security RAM tool for critical infrastructures (RAM-CITM). The prototype automated RAM tool provides a user-friendly, systematic, and comprehensive risk-based tool to assist CI sector and security professionals in assessing and managing security risk from malevolent threats. The current tool is structured on the basic RAM framework developed by SNL. It is envisioned that this prototype tool will be adapted to meet the requirements of different CI sectors and thereby provide additional capabilities.

  18. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    Andrea Gaddi

    With all the technical services running, the attention has moved toward the next shutdown that will be spent to perform those modifications needed to enhance the reliability of CMS Infrastructures. Just to give an example for the cooling circuit, a set of re-circulating bypasses will be installed into the TS/CV area to limit the pressure surge when a circuit is partially shut-off. This problem has affected especially the Endcap Muon cooling circuit in the past. Also the ventilation of the UXC55 has to be revisited, allowing the automatic switching to full extraction in case of magnet quench. (Normally 90% of the cavern air is re-circulated by the ventilation system.) Minor modifications will concern the gas distribution, while the DSS action-matrix has to be refined according to the experience gained with operating the detector for a while. On the powering side, some LV power lines have been doubled and the final schematics of the UPS coverage for the counting rooms have been released. The most relevant inte...

  19. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    A. Gaddi and P. Tropea

    2013-01-01

      Most of the CMS infrastructures at P5 will go through a heavy consolidation-work period during LS1. All systems, from the cryogenic plant of the superconducting magnet to the rack powering in the USC55 counting rooms, from the cooling circuits to the gas distribution, will undergo consolidation work. As announced in the last issue of the CMS Bulletin, we present here one of the consolidation projects of LS1: the installation of a new dry-gas plant for inner detectors inertion. So far the oxygen and humidity suppression inside the CMS Tracker and Pixel volumes were assured by flushing dry nitrogen gas evaporated from a large liquid nitrogen tank. For technical reasons, the maximum flow is limited to less than 100 m3/h and the cost of refilling the tank every two weeks with liquid nitrogen is quite substantial. The new dry-gas plant will supply up to 400 m3/h of dry nitrogen (or the same flow of dry air, during shut-downs) with a comparatively minimal operation cost. It has been evaluated that the...

  20. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Document Server

    Andrea Gaddi

    2010-01-01

    During the last six months, the main activity on the cooling circuit has essentially been preventive maintenance. At each short machine technical stop, a water sample is extracted out of every cooling circuit to measure the induced radioactivity. Soon after, a visual check of the whole detector cooling network is done, looking for water leaks in sensitive locations. Depending on sub-system availability, the main water filters are replaced; the old ones are inspected and sent to the CERN metallurgical lab in case of suspicious sediments. For the coming winter technical stop, a number of corrective maintenance activities and infrastructure consolidation work-packages are foreseen. A few faulty valves, found on the muon system cooling circuit, will be replaced; the cooling gauges for TOTEM and CASTOR, in the CMS Forward region, will be either changed or shielded against the magnetic stray field. The demineralizer cartridges will be replaced as well. New instrumentation will also be installed in the SCX5 PC farm ...

  1. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    Andrea Gaddi.

    The various water-cooling circuits ran smoothly over the summer. The overall performance of the cooling system is satisfactory, even if some improvements are possible, concerning the endcap water-cooling and the C6F14 circuits. In particular for the endcap cooling circuit, we aim to lower the water temperature, to provide more margin for RPC detectors. An expert-on-call piquet has been established during the summer global run, assuring the continuous supervision of the installations. An effort has been made to collect and harmonize the existing documentation on the cooling infrastructures at P5. The last six months have seen minor modifications to the electrical power network at P5. Among these, the racks in USC55 for the Tracker and Sniffer systems, which are backed up by the diesel generator in case of power outage, have been equipped with new control boxes to allow a remote restart. Other interventions have concerned the supply of assured power to those installations that are essential for CMS to run eff...

  2. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Multimedia

    A. Gaddi

    The long winter shut-down allows for modifications that will improve the reliability of the detector infrastructures at P5. The annual maintenance of detector services is taking place as well. This means a full stop of water-cooling circuits from November 24th with a gradual restart from mid January 09. The annual maintenance service includes the cleaning of the two SF5 cooling towers, service of the chiller plants on the surface, and the cryogenic plant serving the CMS Magnet. In addition, the overall site power is reduced from 8MW to 2MW, compatible with the switchover to the Swiss power network in winter. Full power will be available again from end of January. Among the modification works planned, the Low Voltage cabinets are being refurbished; doubling the cable sections and replacing the 40A circuit breakers with 60A types. This will reduce the overheating that has been experienced. Moreover, two new LV transformers will be bought and pre-cabled in order to assure a quick swap in case of failure of any...

  3. INFRASTRUCTURE

    CERN Document Server

    A. Gaddi

    2011-01-01

    During the last winter technical stop, a number of corrective maintenance activities and infrastructure consolidation work-packages were completed. On the surface, the site cooling facility has passed the annual maintenance process that includes the cleaning of the two evaporative cooling towers, the maintenance of the chiller units and the safety checks on the software controls. In parallel, CMS teams, reinforced by PH-DT group personnel, have worked to shield the cooling gauges for TOTEM and CASTOR against the magnetic stray field in the CMS Forward region, to add labels to almost all the valves underground and to clean all the filters in UXC55, USC55 and SCX5. Following the insertion of TOTEM T1 detector, the cooling circuit has been branched off and commissioned. The demineraliser cartridges have been replaced as well, as they were shown to be almost saturated. New instrumentation has been installed in the SCX5 PC farm cooling and ventilation network, in order to monitor the performance of the HVAC system...

  4. Environmental vulnerability assessment using Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahoo, Satiprasad; Dhar, Anirban; Kar, Amlanjyoti

    2016-01-01

    Environmental management of an area describes a policy for its systematic and sustainable environmental protection. In the present study, regional environmental vulnerability assessment in Hirakud command area of Odisha, India is envisaged based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process method (Grey–AHP) using integrated remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Grey–AHP combines the advantages of classical analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and grey clustering method for accurate estimation of weight coefficients. It is a new method for environmental vulnerability assessment. Environmental vulnerability index (EVI) uses natural, environmental and human impact related factors, e.g., soil, geology, elevation, slope, rainfall, temperature, wind speed, normalized difference vegetation index, drainage density, crop intensity, agricultural DRASTIC value, population density and road density. EVI map has been classified into four environmental vulnerability zones (EVZs) namely: ‘low’, ‘moderate’ ‘high’, and ‘extreme’ encompassing 17.87%, 44.44%, 27.81% and 9.88% of the study area, respectively. EVI map indicates that the northern part of the study area is more vulnerable from an environmental point of view. EVI map shows close correlation with elevation. Effectiveness of the zone classification is evaluated by using grey clustering method. General effectiveness is in between “better” and “common classes”. This analysis demonstrates the potential applicability of the methodology. - Highlights: • Environmental vulnerability zone identification based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) • The effectiveness evaluation by means of a grey clustering method with support from AHP • Use of grey approach eliminates the excessive dependency on the experience of experts.

  5. Environmental vulnerability assessment using Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process based model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sahoo, Satiprasad [School of Water Resources, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur (India); Dhar, Anirban, E-mail: anirban.dhar@gmail.com [Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur (India); Kar, Amlanjyoti [Central Ground Water Board, Bhujal Bhawan, Faridabad, Haryana (India)

    2016-01-15

    Environmental management of an area describes a policy for its systematic and sustainable environmental protection. In the present study, regional environmental vulnerability assessment in Hirakud command area of Odisha, India is envisaged based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process method (Grey–AHP) using integrated remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Grey–AHP combines the advantages of classical analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and grey clustering method for accurate estimation of weight coefficients. It is a new method for environmental vulnerability assessment. Environmental vulnerability index (EVI) uses natural, environmental and human impact related factors, e.g., soil, geology, elevation, slope, rainfall, temperature, wind speed, normalized difference vegetation index, drainage density, crop intensity, agricultural DRASTIC value, population density and road density. EVI map has been classified into four environmental vulnerability zones (EVZs) namely: ‘low’, ‘moderate’ ‘high’, and ‘extreme’ encompassing 17.87%, 44.44%, 27.81% and 9.88% of the study area, respectively. EVI map indicates that the northern part of the study area is more vulnerable from an environmental point of view. EVI map shows close correlation with elevation. Effectiveness of the zone classification is evaluated by using grey clustering method. General effectiveness is in between “better” and “common classes”. This analysis demonstrates the potential applicability of the methodology. - Highlights: • Environmental vulnerability zone identification based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) • The effectiveness evaluation by means of a grey clustering method with support from AHP • Use of grey approach eliminates the excessive dependency on the experience of experts.

  6. Assessment of Socioeconomic Vulnerability to Floods in the Bâsca Chiojdului Catchment Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    REMUS PRĂVĂLIE

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological risk phenomena such as floods are among the most costly natural disasters worldwide, effects consisting of socioeconomic damages and deaths. The Bâsca Chiojdului catchment area, by its morphometric and hydrographic peculiarities, is prone to generate these hydrological risk phenomena, so there is a high vulnerability in the socioeconomic elements. This paper is focused on the identification of the main socioeconomic elements vulnerable to hydrological risk phenomena such as floods, based on the assessment of their manifestation potential. Thus, following the delimitation of areas with the highest flood occurrence potential (susceptibility to floods, major socioeconomic factors existing in the basin, considering human settlements (constructions, transport infrastructure, and agricultural areas (the most important category, were superimposed. Results showed a high vulnerability for all three exposed socioeconomic elements especially in valley sectors, of which household structures were the most vulnerable, given both their importance and the high number of areas highly exposed to floods (approximately 2,500 houses and outbuildings, out of a total of about 10,250, intersect the most susceptible area to floods in the study area.

  7. Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    As part of the Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) program, the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has prepared this draft report exploring a new methodology for climate change vulnerability assessments using San Francisco Bay’s salt marsh and mudflat ecosystems as a demonstration. N/A

  8. Seismic and wind vulnerability assessment for the GAR-13 global risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Yamín Lacouture, Luis Eduardo; Hurtado Chaparro, Alvaro Ivan; Barbat Barbat, Horia Alejandro; Cardona Arboleda, Omar Dario

    2014-01-01

    A general methodology to evaluate vulnerability functions suitable for a probabilistic global risk assessment is proposed. The methodology is partially based in the methodological approach of the Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology (Hazus) developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The vulnerability assessment process considers the resolution, information and limitations established for both the hazard and exposure models adopted. Seismic and wind vulnerability function...

  9. Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moss, Richard H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Blohm, Andrew [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Delgado, Alison [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Henriques, Justin J. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Malone, Elizabeth L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-02-01

    U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Departments of Energy and Defense. The paper provides a framework of steps for climate vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. In a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change.

  10. Dynamic vulnerability assessment and intelligent control for sustainable power systems

    CERN Document Server

    Gonzalez-Longatt, Francisco

    2018-01-01

    Identifying, assessing, and mitigating electric power grid vulnerabilities is a growing focus in short-term operational planning of power systems. Through illustrated application, this important guide surveys state-of-the-art methodologies for the assessment and enhancement of power system security in short-term operational planning and real-time operation. The methodologies employ advanced methods from probabilistic theory, data mining, artificial intelligence, and optimization, to provide knowledge-based support for monitoring, control (preventive and corrective), and decision making tasks. Key features: Introduces behavioural recognition in wide-area monitoring and security constrained optimal power flow for intelligent control and protection and optimal grid management. Provides in-depth understanding of risk-based reliability and security assessment, dynamic vulnerability as essment methods, supported by the underpinning mathematics. Develops expertise in mitigation techniques using intelligent protect...

  11. The effects of `non-infrastructural' measures to improve the safety of vulnerable road users : a review of international findings, prepared for the OECD Scientific Expert Group "Safety of vulnerable road users".

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagenzieker, M.P.

    1997-01-01

    This report reviews the evaluated effects of what can be called `non-infrastructural measures' to improve the safety of vulnerable road users. Three selected areas are discussed: education and training, measures to enhance visibility and conspecuity, and protective devices for bicyclists. Other

  12. An assessment of fire vulnerability for aged electrical relays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vigil, R.A.; Nowlen, S.P.

    1995-03-01

    There has been some concern that, as nuclear power plants age, protective measures taken to control and minimize the impact of fire may become ineffective, or significantly less effective, and hence result in an increased fire risk. One objective of the Fire Vulnerability of Aged Electrical Components Program is to assess the effects of aging and service wear on the fire vulnerability of electrical equipment. An increased fire vulnerability of components may lead to an overall increase in fire risk to the plant. Because of their widespread use in various electrical safety systems, electromechanical relays were chosen to be the initial components for evaluation. This test program assessed the impact of operational and thermal aging on the vulnerability of these relays to fire-induced damage. Only thermal effects of a fire were examined in this test program. The impact of smoke, corrosive materials, or fire suppression effects on relay performance were not addressed in this test program. The purpose of this test program was to assess whether the fire vulnerability of electrical relays increased with aging. The sequence followed for the test program was to: identify specific relay types, develop three fire scenarios, artificially age several relays, test the unaged and aged relays in the fire exposure scenarios, and compare the results. The relays tested were Agastat GPI, General Electric (GE) HMA, HGA, and HFA. At least two relays of each type were artificially aged and at least two relays of each type were new. Relays were operationally aged by cycling the relay under rated load for 2,000 operations. These relays were then thermally aged for 60 days with their coil energized

  13. Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, R. S.

    2009-12-01

    A volcanic hazard is any phenomenon that threatens communities . These hazards include volcanic events like pyroclastic flows, explosions, ash fall and lavas, and secondary effects such as lahars and landslides. Volcanic hazards are described by the physical characteristics of the phenomena, by the assessment of the areas that they are likely to affect and by the magnitude-dependent return period of events. Volcanic hazard maps are generated by mapping past volcanic events and by modelling the hazardous processes. Both these methods have their strengths and limitations and a robust map should use both approaches in combination. Past records, studied through stratigraphy, the distribution of deposits and age dating, are typically incomplete and may be biased. Very significant volcanic hazards, such as surge clouds and volcanic blasts, are not well-preserved in the geological record for example. Models of volcanic processes are very useful to help identify hazardous areas that do not have any geological evidence. They are, however, limited by simplifications and incomplete understanding of the physics. Many practical volcanic hazards mapping tools are also very empirical. Hazards maps are typically abstracted into hazards zones maps, which are some times called threat or risk maps. Their aim is to identify areas at high levels of threat and the boundaries between zones may take account of other factors such as roads, escape routes during evacuation, infrastructure. These boundaries may change with time due to new knowledge on the hazards or changes in volcanic activity levels. Alternatively they may remain static but implications of the zones may change as volcanic activity changes. Zone maps are used for planning purposes and for management of volcanic crises. Volcanic hazards maps are depictions of the likelihood of future volcanic phenomena affecting places and people. Volcanic phenomena are naturally variable, often complex and not fully understood. There are

  14. Automating Flood Hazard Mapping Methods for Near Real-time Storm Surge Inundation and Vulnerability Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Gallagher, D.

    2015-12-01

    Storm surge has enough destructive power to damage buildings and infrastructure, erode beaches, and threaten human life across large geographic areas, hence posing the greatest threat of all the hurricane hazards. The United States Gulf of Mexico has proven vulnerable to hurricanes as it has been hit by some of the most destructive hurricanes on record. With projected rises in sea level and increases in hurricane activity, there is a need to better understand the associated risks for disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response. GIS has become a critical tool in enhancing disaster planning, risk assessment, and emergency response by communicating spatial information through a multi-layer approach. However, there is a need for a near real-time method of identifying areas with a high risk of being impacted by storm surge. Research was conducted alongside Baron, a private industry weather enterprise, to facilitate automated modeling and visualization of storm surge inundation and vulnerability on a near real-time basis. This research successfully automated current flood hazard mapping techniques using a GIS framework written in a Python programming environment, and displayed resulting data through an Application Program Interface (API). Data used for this methodology included high resolution topography, NOAA Probabilistic Surge model outputs parsed from Rich Site Summary (RSS) feeds, and the NOAA Census tract level Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI). The development process required extensive data processing and management to provide high resolution visualizations of potential flooding and population vulnerability in a timely manner. The accuracy of the developed methodology was assessed using Hurricane Isaac as a case study, which through a USGS and NOAA partnership, contained ample data for statistical analysis. This research successfully created a fully automated, near real-time method for mapping high resolution storm surge inundation and vulnerability for the

  15. Energy Vulnerability Assessment for the US Pacific Islands. Technical Appendix 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fesharaki, F.; Rizer, J.P.; Greer, L.S.

    1994-05-01

    The study, Energy Vulnerability Assessment of the US Pacific Islands, was mandated by the Congress of the United States as stated in House Resolution 776-220 of 1992, Section 1406. The resolution states that the US Secretary of Energy shall conduct a study of the implications of the unique vulnerabilities of the insular areas to an oil supply disruption. Such study shall outline how the insular areas shall gain access to vital oil supplies during times of national emergency. The resolution defines insular areas as the US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and Palau. The US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are not included in this report. The US Department of Energy (USDOE) has broadened the scope of the study contained in the House Resolution to include emergency preparedness and response strategies which would reduce vulnerability to an oil supply disruption as well as steps to ameliorate adverse economic consequences. This includes a review of alternative energy technologies with respect to their potential for reducing dependence on imported petroleum. USDOE has outlined the four tasks of the energy vulnerability assessment as the following: (1) for each island, determine crude oil and refined product demand/supply, and characterize energy and economic infrastructure; (2) forecast global and regional oil trade flow patterns, energy demand/supply, and economic activities; (3) formulate oil supply disruption scenarios and ascertain the general and unique vulnerabilities of these islands to oil supply disruptions; and (4) outline emergency preparedness and response options to secure oil supplies in the short run, and reduce dependence on imported oil in the longer term.

  16. Energy Vulnerability Assessment for the US Pacific Islands. Technical Appendix 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fesharaki, F.; Rizer, J.P.; Greer, L.S.

    1994-05-01

    The study, Energy Vulnerability Assessment of the US Pacific Islands, was mandated by the Congress of the United States as stated in House Resolution 776-220 of 1992, Section 1406. The resolution states that the US Secretary of Energy shall conduct a study of the implications of the unique vulnerabilities of the insular areas to an oil supply disruption. Such study shall outline how the insular areas shall gain access to vital oil supplies during times of national emergency. The resolution defines insular areas as the US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and Palau. The US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are not included in this report. The US Department of Energy (USDOE) has broadened the scope of the study contained in the House Resolution to include emergency preparedness and response strategies which would reduce vulnerability to an oil supply disruption as well as steps to ameliorate adverse economic consequences. This includes a review of alternative energy technologies with respect to their potential for reducing dependence on imported petroleum. USDOE has outlined the four tasks of the energy vulnerability assessment as the following: (1) for each island, determine crude oil and refined product demand/supply, and characterize energy and economic infrastructure; (2) forecast global and regional oil trade flow patterns, energy demand/supply, and economic activities; (3) formulate oil supply disruption scenarios and ascertain the general and unique vulnerabilities of these islands to oil supply disruptions; and (4) outline emergency preparedness and response options to secure oil supplies in the short run, and reduce dependence on imported oil in the longer term

  17. Preliminary regulatory assessment of nuclear power plants vulnerabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostadinov, V.; Petelin, S.

    2004-01-01

    Preliminary attempts to develop models for nuclear regulatory vulnerability assessment of nuclear power plants are presented. Development of the philosophy and computer tools could be new and important insight for management of nuclear operators and nuclear regulatory bodies who face difficult questions about how to assess the vulnerability of nuclear power plants and other nuclear facilities to external and internal threats. In the situation where different and hidden threat sources are dispersed throughout the world, the assessment of security and safe operation of nuclear power plants is very important. Capability to evaluate plant vulnerability to different kinds of threats, like human and natural occurrences and terrorist attacks and preparation of emergency response plans and estimation of costs are of vital importance for assurance of national security. On the basis of such vital insights, nuclear operators and nuclear regulatory bodies could plan and optimise changes in oversight procedures, organisations, equipment, hardware and software to reduce risks taking into account security and safety of nuclear power plants operation, budget, manpower, and other limitations. Initial qualitative estimations of adapted assessments for nuclear applications are shortly presented. (author)

  18. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Idaho National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christopher P. Ischay; Ernest L. Fossum; Polly C. Buotte; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Alexander Peterson

    2014-10-01

    The University of Idaho (UI) was asked to participate in the development of a climate change vulnerability assessment for Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This report describes the outcome of that assessment. The climate change happening now, due in large part to human activities, is expected to continue in the future. UI and INL used a common framework for assessing vulnerability that considers exposure (future climate change), sensitivity (system or component responses to climate), impact (exposure combined with sensitivity), and adaptive capacity (capability of INL to modify operations to minimize climate change impacts) to assess vulnerability. Analyses of climate change (exposure) revealed that warming that is ongoing at INL will continue in the coming decades, with increased warming in later decades and under scenarios of greater greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of precipitation are more uncertain, with multi model means exhibiting somewhat wetter conditions and more wet days per year. Additional impacts relevant to INL include estimates of more burned area and increased evaporation and transpiration, leading to reduced soil moisture and plant growth.

  19. Tool-based Risk Assessment of Cloud Infrastructures as Socio-Technical Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nidd, Michael; Ivanova, Marieta Georgieva; Probst, Christian W.

    2015-01-01

    Assessing risk in cloud infrastructures is difficult. Typical cloud infrastructures contain potentially thousands of nodes that are highly interconnected and dynamic. Another important component is the set of human actors who get access to data and computing infrastructure. The cloud infrastructure...... exercise for cloud infrastructures using the socio-technical model developed in the TRESPASS project; after showing how to model typical components of a cloud infrastructure, we show how attacks are identified on this model and discuss their connection to risk assessment. The technical part of the model...... is extracted automatically from the configuration of the cloud infrastructure, which is especially important for systems so dynamic and complex....

  20. An Assessment of the radiological vulnerability for Spanish soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trueba, C.; Millan, R.; Schimid, T.; Lago, C.; Gutierrez, J.

    2000-01-01

    A methodology is presented to assess the radiological vulnerability of soils, based exclusively on their pedagogical properties. The radiological vulnerability defined as the potential capacity of soils to fix or transfer deposited radiocaesium and radiostrontium to plants, is represented in terms of vulnerability indexes. Two pathways are considered, the external irradiation and their transfer through the food chain, where the top horizon and a critical depth of 60 cm is taken into account, respectively, Partial vulnerability indexes are considered for each pathway, which allows a qualitative prediction of the behaviour of the contaminants in soils Global indexes have been obtained as the sum of the partial indexes. The methodology has been applied and validated using a data base consisting of more than 2000 soil profiles selected from all over Spain. This included a pedagogical characterisation and normalisation of the different soil profiles. Results have been obtained for individual soil profiles and with the aid of a GIS, the distribution of the partial and global indexes have been presented for the most representative soil types. (Author)

  1. A Tool for Assessing Financial Vulnerabilities in the Household Sector

    OpenAIRE

    Shubhasis Dey; Ramdane Djoudad; Yaz Terajima

    2008-01-01

    In this article, the authors build on the framework used in the Bank of Canada's Financial System Review to assess the evolution of household indebtedness and financial vulnerabilities in response to changing economic conditions. To achieve this, they first compare two microdata sets generated by Ipsos Reid's Canadian Financial Monitor and Statistics Canada's Survey of Financial Security. They find that the surveys are broadly comparable, despite methodological differences. This enables them ...

  2. Dynamic Analytics-Driven Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Exploitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-07-15

    scans and other observations such as network traffic capture, to assess the severity of a vulnerability in terms of its specific impact to a 3...straightforward proposition. There are literally hundreds, if not thousands, of security tools and information technology systems that generate data useful for...during the data modeling process, a common taxonomy or data dictionary for the data elements of interest should be established. The data

  3. Flood Risk Assessment on Selected Critical Infrastructure in Kota Marudu Town, Sabah, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayog Janice Lynn

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the risk of flood on selected critical infrastructure in a flood-prone catchment in Sabah, Malaysia. Kota Marudu, located in the Bandau floodplain, one of the Sabah’s northern water catchments, was selected as the study site due to its frequent flood occurrence and large floodplain coverage. Two of its largest rivers, namely Sungai Bongon and Sungai Bandau, tends to flood during rainy season and cause temporary displacements of thousands of people living in the floodplain. A total of 362 respondents participated in the questionnaire survey in order to gather information on historical flood occurrence. Three flood depth groups were determined, which are 1 less than 0.3 meter, 2 0.3 – 0.6 meter and 3 more than 0.6 meter, while three categories of critical infrastructure were defined, namely transportation system, communication system and buildings. It is found that the transportation system encounters the most severe impact as flood inundation increases, where 92% of the respondents believe that the transportation access should be abandoned when flood depth is more than 0.6m. The findings of this study will be used for detailed risk assessment, specifically on the vulnerability of the critical infrastructures to flood in this floodplain.

  4. Assessment of the biodiesel distribution infrastructure in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lagace, C.

    2007-08-01

    Canada's biodiesel industry is in its infancy, and must work to achieve the demand needed to ensure its development. This assessment of Canada's biodiesel distribution infrastructure was conducted to recommend the most efficient infrastructure pathway for effective biodiesel distribution. The study focused on the establishment of a link between biodiesel supplies and end-users. The current Canadian biodiesel industry was discussed, and future market potentials were outlined. The Canadian distillate product distribution infrastructure was discussed. Technical considerations and compliance issues were reviewed. The following 2 scenarios were used to estimate adaptations and costs for the Canadian market: (1) the use of primary terminals to ensure quality control of biodiesel, and (2) storage in secondary terminals where biodiesel blends are prepared before being transported to retail outlets. The study showed that relevant laboratory training programs are needed as well as proficiency testing programs in order to ensure adequate quality control of biodiesel. Standards for biodiesel distribution are needed, as well as specifications for the heating oil market. It was concluded that this document may prove useful in developing government policy objectives and identifying further research needs. 21 refs., 12 tabs., 13 figs

  5. Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment to Pesticides and Their Ranking and Clustering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Abrishamchi

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the different methods for groundwater vulnerability assessment to pesticides contamination and their uncertainties were introduced. Then, the groundwater vulnerability of agricultural regions of Pasha-Kolaa dam (Mazandaran province to 7 pesticides has been assessed by the mobility potential indices in the typical conditions of pesticide properties (t1/2 and KOC and the zonation maps of groundwater vulnerability in this region have been generated in the GIS environment.  According to the uncertainty of the pesticide properties and the lack of necessary data for uncertainty analysis in the region of study, the mobility potential indices in different scenarios of pesticide properties (worst and best conditions of pesticide properties (t1/2 and KOC have been calculated, mapped and zoned. The zonation maps in three scenarios (best, typical and worst conditions of pesticide properties were compared. Next, according to the regional values of mobility potential indices, generated for different scenarios, the pesticides are ranked using the composite programming method. Finally, the pesticides are clustered to three groups (suitable, transitional and unsuitable by the combination of the results of previous sections. The clustering results showed that among of studied pesticides, 2,4 D Acid, Dimethoate and Fenvalerate are suitable ,and Metsulfuron and Triclopyr are unsuitable pesticides for region of study. The other pesticides showed transitional condition.

  6. Free and Open Source Software for land degradation vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imbrenda, Vito; Calamita, Giuseppe; Coluzzi, Rosa; D'Emilio, Mariagrazia; Lanfredi, Maria Teresa; Perrone, Angela; Ragosta, Maria; Simoniello, Tiziana

    2013-04-01

    Nowadays the role of FOSS software in scientific research is becoming increasingly important. Besides the important issues of reduced costs for licences, legality and security there are many other reasons that make FOSS software attractive. Firstly, making the code opened is a warranty of quality permitting to thousands of developers around the world to check the code and fix bugs rather than rely on vendors claims. FOSS communities are usually enthusiastic about helping other users for solving problems and expand or customize software (flexibility). Most important for this study, the interoperability allows to combine the user-friendly QGIS with the powerful GRASS-GIS and the richness of statistical methods of R in order to process remote sensing data and to perform geo-statistical analysis in one only environment. This study is focused on the land degradation (i.e. the reduction in the capacity of the land to provide ecosystem goods and services and assure its functions) and in particular on the estimation of the vulnerability levels in order to suggest appropriate policy actions to reduce/halt land degradation impacts, using the above mentioned software. The area investigated is the Basilicata Region (Southern Italy) where large natural areas are mixed with anthropized areas. To identify different levels of vulnerability we adopted the Environmentally Sensitive Areas (ESAs) model, based on the combination of indicators related to soil, climate, vegetation and anthropic stress. Such indicators were estimated by using the following data-sources: - Basilicata Region Geoportal to assess soil vulnerability; - DESERTNET2 project to evaluate potential vegetation vulnerability and climate vulnerability; - NDVI-MODIS satellite time series (2000-2010) with 250m resolution, available as 16-day composite from the NASA LP DAAC to characterize the dynamic component of vegetation; - Agricultural Census data 2010, Corine Land Cover 2006 and morphological information to assess

  7. Vulnerability Assessment, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures in Slovenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cegnar, T.

    2010-09-01

    In relation to the priority tasks of the climate change measures, the Republic of Slovenia estimates that special attention needs to be devoted to the following sectors in general: - sectors that currently indicate a strong vulnerability for the current climate variability (for instance, agriculture), - sectors where the vulnerability for climate change is increased by current trends (for instance, urban development, use of space), - sectors where the adaptation time is the longest and the subsequent development changes are connected with the highest costs (for instance, use of space, infrastructural objects, forestry, urban development, building stock). Considering the views of Slovenia to the climate change problem in Europe and Slovenia, priority measures and emphasis on future adaptation to climate change, the Republic of Slovenia has especially exposed the following action areas: - sustainable and integrated management of water sources for water power production, prevention of floods, provision of water for the enrichment of low flow rates, and preservation of environmental function as well as provision of water for other needs; - sustainable management of forest ecosystems, adjusted to changes, for the provision of their environmental function as well as being a source of biomass, wood for products for the conservation of carbon, and carbon sinks; - spatial planning as one of the important preventive instruments for the adaptation to climate change through the processes of integral planning of spatial and urban development; - sustainable use and preservation of natural wealth and the preservation of biodiversity as well as ecosystem services with measures and policies that enable an enhanced resistance of ecosystems to climate change, and the role of biological diversity in integral adaptation measures; - informing and awareness on the consequences of climate change and adaptation possibilities. For years, the most endangered sectors have been agriculture and

  8. A Multimethod Approach towards Assessing Urban Flood Patterns and Its Associated Vulnerabilities in Singapore

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Winston T. L. Chow

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigated flooding patterns in the urbanised city-state of Singapore through a multimethod approach combining station precipitation data with archival newspaper and governmental records; changes in flash floods frequencies or reported impacts of floods towards Singapore society were documented. We subsequently discussed potential flooding impacts in the context of urban vulnerability, based on future urbanisation and forecasted precipitation projections for Singapore. We find that, despite effective flood management, (i significant increases in reported flash flood frequency occurred in contemporary (post-2000 relative to preceding (1984–1999 periods, (ii these flash floods coincide with more localised, “patchy” storm events, (iii storms in recent years are also more intense and frequent, and (iv floods result in low human casualties but have high economic costs via insurance damage claims. We assess that Singapore presently has low vulnerability to floods vis-à-vis other regional cities largely due to holistic flood management via consistent and successful infrastructural development, widespread flood monitoring, and effective advisory platforms. We conclude, however, that future vulnerabilities may increase from stresses arising from physical exposure to climate change and from demographic sensitivity via rapid population growth. Anticipating these changes is potentially useful in maintaining the high resilience of Singapore towards this hydrometeorological hazard.

  9. Urban growth patterns in major Southeast Asian cities: Toward exposure mapping and vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandapaka, Pradeep; Kamarajugedda, Shankar A.; Lo, Edmond Y. M.

    2017-04-01

    Southeast Asia (SEA) is undergoing rapid urbanization, with urban population percentage increasing from 32% in 1990 to 48% in 2015. It is projected that by the year 2040, urban regions in SEA account for 60% of its total population. The region is home to 600 million people, with many densely populated cities, including megacities such as Jakarta, Bangkok, and Manila. The region has more than 20,000 islands, and many cities lie on coastal low-lands and floodplains. These geographical characteristics together with the increasing population, infrastructure growth, and changing climate makes the region highly vulnerable to natural hazards. This study assessed urban growth dynamics in major (defined as population exceeding 1 million) SEA cities using remotely sensed night-time lights (NTL) data. A recently proposed brightness gradient approach was applied on 21 years (1992-2012) of NTL annual composites to derive core-urban (CU) and peri-urban (PU) regions within each city. The study also assessed the sensitivity of above extracted urban categories to different NTL thresholds. The temporal trends in CU and PU regions were quantified, and compared with trends in socio-economic indicators. The spatial expansion of CU and PU regions were found to depend on geographical constraints and socio-economic factors. Quantification of urban growth spatial-temporal patterns, as conducted here contributes towards the understanding of exposure and vulnerability of people and infrastructures to natural hazards, as well as the evolving trends for assessment under projected urbanization conditions. This will underpin better risk assessment efforts for present and future planning.

  10. Assessing internal biophysical vulnerability to landslide hazards - a nested catchment approach: Xiangxi Watershed / Three Gorges Reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiegand, Matthias; Seeber, Christoph; Hartmann, Heike; Xiang, Wei; King, Lorenz

    2010-05-01

    . Dwellings and road infrastructure, chosen as high priorities, are captured based on various data like: high resolution satellite imagery, topographic information and field investigation. Currently demographic data is available only at administrative county level - therefore buildings will serve as spatial proxy for population density. Elements at risk will be classified into categories and susceptibility factors will be identified for sampled groups. The envisaged model defines the susceptibility of a certain element at risk not only by the element itself - it assumes that the specific susceptibility is also strongly influenced by the particular surroundings. The susceptibility of a certain building, as for instance, will be defined by the structure type and condition, and in addition or as proxy, specific site characteristics like: slope angle and aspect, soil type and erodibility, lithology, proximity to streams, proximity to the Three Gorges reservoir, depth to groundwater, land use change and dissect intensity, if feasible. Each factor with potential influence on susceptibility will go through a GIS based factor weighting procedure as part of the quantitative vulnerability model. Holistic, "cross scale integrated" vulnerability assessment models need to integrate environmental, social/ cultural and economic aspects. Therefore the proposed vulnerability assessment model must be seen as a starting point for a conceptual framework, and might serve as stimulus to local disaster- and resources management systems. Furthermore the GIS based model enables the opportunity to be linked and refined within the local spatial data infrastructure initiatives.

  11. VuWiki: An Ontology-Based Semantic Wiki for Vulnerability Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khazai, Bijan; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Büscher, Christian; Wegner, Antje

    2014-05-01

    The concept of vulnerability, as well as its implementation in vulnerability assessments, is used in various disciplines and contexts ranging from disaster management and reduction to ecology, public health or climate change and adaptation, and a corresponding multitude of ideas about how to conceptualize and measure vulnerability exists. Three decades of research in vulnerability have generated a complex and growing body of knowledge that challenges newcomers, practitioners and even experienced researchers. To provide a structured representation of the knowledge field "vulnerability assessment", we have set up an ontology-based semantic wiki for reviewing and representing vulnerability assessments: VuWiki, www.vuwiki.org. Based on a survey of 55 vulnerability assessment studies, we first developed an ontology as an explicit reference system for describing vulnerability assessments. We developed the ontology in a theoretically controlled manner based on general systems theory and guided by principles for ontology development in the field of earth and environment (Raskin and Pan 2005). Four key questions form the first level "branches" or categories of the developed ontology: (1) Vulnerability of what? (2) Vulnerability to what? (3) What reference framework was used in the vulnerability assessment?, and (4) What methodological approach was used in the vulnerability assessment? These questions correspond to the basic, abstract structure of the knowledge domain of vulnerability assessments and have been deduced from theories and concepts of various disciplines. The ontology was then implemented in a semantic wiki which allows for the classification and annotation of vulnerability assessments. As a semantic wiki, VuWiki does not aim at "synthesizing" a holistic and overarching model of vulnerability. Instead, it provides both scientists and practitioners with a uniform ontology as a reference system and offers easy and structured access to the knowledge field of

  12. A flood vulnerability index for coastal cities and its use in assessing climate change impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balica, S.F.; Wright, N.G.; Van der Meulen, F.

    2012-01-01

    Worldwide, there is a need to enhance our understanding of vulnerability and to develop methodologies and tools to assess vulnerability. One of the most important goals of assessing coastal flood vulnerability, in particular, is to create a readily understandable link between the theoretical

  13. 76 FR 55673 - Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-08

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9460-8; Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-ORD-2011-0485] Vulnerability... titled, Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach...) and Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach...

  14. Multi-hazards coastal vulnerability assessment of Goa, India, using geospatial techniques.

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Kunte, P.D.; Jauhari, N.; Mehrotra, U.; Kotha, M.; Hursthouse, A.S.; Gagnon, A.S.

    that are the most and least vulnerable to erosion, flooding and inundation of coastal lands, and that the inclusion of socio-economic parameters influences the overall assessment of vulnerability. This study provides information aimed at increasing awareness amongst...

  15. Vulnerability assessment and mitigation for the Chinese railway system under floods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Liu; Ouyang, Min; Peeta, Srinivas; He, Xiaozheng; Yan, Yongze

    2015-01-01

    The economy of China and the travel needs of its citizens depend significantly on the continuous and reliable services provided by its railway system. However, this system is subject to frequent natural hazards, such as floods, earthquakes, and debris flow. A mechanism to assess the railway system vulnerability under these hazards and the design of effective vulnerability mitigation strategies are essential to the reliable functioning of the railway system. This article proposes a comprehensive methodology to quantitatively assess the railway system vulnerability under floods using historical data and GIS technology. The proposed methodology includes a network representation of the railway system, the generation of flood event scenarios, a method to estimate railway link vulnerability, and a quantitative vulnerability value computation approach. The railway system vulnerability is evaluated in terms of its service disruption related to the number of interrupted trains and the durations of interruption. A maintenance strategy to mitigate vulnerability is proposed that simultaneously considers link vulnerability and number of trains using it. Numerical experiments show that the flood-induced vulnerability of the proposed representation of the Chinese railway system reaches its maximum monthly value in July, and the proposed vulnerability mitigation strategy is more effective compared to other strategies. - Highlights: • We propose a methodology to assess flood-induced railway system vulnerability. • Railway system vulnerability is evaluated in terms of its service disruption. • Chinese railway system reaches its maximum monthly vulnerability in July. • We propose an effective maintenance strategy considering link vulnerability and burden

  16. Assessing Embodied Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Infrastructure Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Krantz

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Greenhouse gas (GHG emissions from construction processes are a serious concern globally. Of the several approaches taken to assess emissions, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA based methods do not just take into account the construction phase, but consider all phases of the life cycle of the construction. However, many current LCA approaches make general assumptions regarding location and effects, which do not do justice to the inherent dynamics of normal construction projects. This study presents a model to assess the embodied energy and associated GHG emissions, which is specifically adapted to address the dynamics of infrastructure construction projects. The use of the model is demonstrated on the superstructure of a prefabricated bridge. The findings indicate that Building Information Models/Modeling (BIM and Discrete Event Simulation (DES can be used to efficiently generate project-specific data, which is needed for estimating the embodied energy and associated GHG emissions in construction settings. This study has implications for the advancement of LCA-based methods (as well as project management as a way of assessing embodied energy and associated GHG emissions related to construction.

  17. Red Team Operations to Assess Information Technology Vulnerabilities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veltman, M.; Parker, R.L.

    1999-01-01

    All Information and Communication Technology (ICT) systems have vulnerabilities. Weaknesses in these systems are introduced either during the specification, implementation or operational phase. Leaving aside these introduced vulnerabilities are intentional or unintentional, the fact remains that

  18. Development of a security vulnerability assessment process for the RAMCAP chemical sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, David A; Fuller, Brad; Hazzan, Michael; Jones, J William

    2007-04-11

    The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Directorate of Information Analysis & Infrastructure Protection (IAIP), Protective Services Division (PSD), contracted the American Society of Mechanical Engineers Innovative Technologies Institute, LLC (ASME ITI, LLC) to develop guidance on Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP). AcuTech Consulting Group (AcuTech) has been contracted by ASME ITI, LLC, to provide assistance by facilitating the development of sector-specific guidance on vulnerability analysis and management for critical asset protection for the chemical manufacturing, petroleum refining, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) sectors. This activity involves two key tasks for these three sectors: Development of a screening to supplement DHS understanding of the assets that are important to protect against terrorist attack and to prioritize the activities. Development of a standard security vulnerability analysis (SVA) framework for the analysis of consequences, vulnerabilities, and threats. This project involves the cooperative effort of numerous leading industrial companies, industry trade associations, professional societies, and security and safety consultants representative of those sectors. Since RAMCAP is a voluntary program for ongoing risk management for homeland security, sector coordinating councils are being asked to assist in communicating the goals of the program and in encouraging participation. The RAMCAP project will have a profound and positive impact on all sectors as it is fully developed, rolled-out and implemented. It will help define the facilities and operations of national and regional interest for the threat of terrorism, define standardized methods for analyzing consequences, vulnerabilities, and threats, and describe best security practices of the industry. This paper will describe the results of the security vulnerability analysis process that was developed and field tested for the chemical manufacturing

  19. Development of a security vulnerability assessment process for the RAMCAP chemical sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, David A.; Fuller, Brad; Hazzan, Michael; Jones, J. William

    2007-01-01

    The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Directorate of Information Analysis and Infrastructure Protection (IAIP), Protective Services Division (PSD), contracted the American Society of Mechanical Engineers Innovative Technologies Institute, LLC (ASME ITI, LLC) to develop guidance on Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP). AcuTech Consulting Group (AcuTech) has been contracted by ASME ITI, LLC, to provide assistance by facilitating the development of sector-specific guidance on vulnerability analysis and management for critical asset protection for the chemical manufacturing, petroleum refining, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) sectors. This activity involves two key tasks for these three sectors:*Development of a screening to supplement DHS understanding of the assets that are important to protect against terrorist attack and to prioritize the activities. *Development of a standard security vulnerability analysis (SVA) framework for the analysis of consequences, vulnerabilities, and threats. This project involves the cooperative effort of numerous leading industrial companies, industry trade associations, professional societies, and security and safety consultants representative of those sectors. Since RAMCAP is a voluntary program for ongoing risk management for homeland security, sector coordinating councils are being asked to assist in communicating the goals of the program and in encouraging participation. The RAMCAP project will have a profound and positive impact on all sectors as it is fully developed, rolled-out and implemented. It will help define the facilities and operations of national and regional interest for the threat of terrorism, define standardized methods for analyzing consequences, vulnerabilities, and threats, and describe best security practices of the industry. This paper will describe the results of the security vulnerability analysis process that was developed and field tested for the chemical manufacturing

  20. Combining landscape variables and species traits can improve the utility of climate change vulnerability assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadeau, Christopher P.; Fuller, Angela K.

    2016-01-01

    Conservation organizations worldwide are investing in climate change vulnerability assessments. Most vulnerability assessment methods focus on either landscape features or species traits that can affect a species vulnerability to climate change. However, landscape features and species traits likely interact to affect vulnerability. We compare a landscape-based assessment, a trait-based assessment, and an assessment that combines landscape variables and species traits for 113 species of birds, herpetofauna, and mammals in the northeastern United States. Our aim is to better understand which species traits and landscape variables have the largest influence on assessment results and which types of vulnerability assessments are most useful for different objectives. Species traits were most important for determining which species will be most vulnerable to climate change. The sensitivity of species to dispersal barriers and the species average natal dispersal distance were the most important traits. Landscape features were most important for determining where species will be most vulnerable because species were most vulnerable in areas where multiple landscape features combined to increase vulnerability, regardless of species traits. The interaction between landscape variables and species traits was important when determining how to reduce climate change vulnerability. For example, an assessment that combines information on landscape connectivity, climate change velocity, and natal dispersal distance suggests that increasing landscape connectivity may not reduce the vulnerability of many species. Assessments that include landscape features and species traits will likely be most useful in guiding conservation under climate change.

  1. Assessing intrinsic and specific vulnerability models ability to indicate groundwater vulnerability to groups of similar pesticides: A comparative study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, Steven; Dixon, Barnali; Griffin, Dale W.

    2018-01-01

    With continued population growth and increasing use of fresh groundwater resources, protection of this valuable resource is critical. A cost effective means to assess risk of groundwater contamination potential will provide a useful tool to protect these resources. Integrating geospatial methods offers a means to quantify the risk of contaminant potential in cost effective and spatially explicit ways. This research was designed to compare the ability of intrinsic (DRASTIC) and specific (Attenuation Factor; AF) vulnerability models to indicate groundwater vulnerability areas by comparing model results to the presence of pesticides from groundwater sample datasets. A logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between the environmental variables and the presence or absence of pesticides within regions of varying vulnerability. According to the DRASTIC model, more than 20% of the study area is very highly vulnerable. Approximately 30% is very highly vulnerable according to the AF model. When groundwater concentrations of individual pesticides were compared to model predictions, the results were mixed. Model predictability improved when concentrations of the group of similar pesticides were compared to model results. Compared to the DRASTIC model, the AF model more accurately predicts the distribution of the number of contaminated wells within each vulnerability class.

  2. A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan A Hare

    Full Text Available Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region. These

  3. A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hare, Jonathan A.; Morrison, Wendy E.; Nelson, Mark W.; Stachura, Megan M.; Teeters, Eric J.; Griffis, Roger B.; Alexander, Michael A.; Scott, James D.; Alade, Larry; Bell, Richard J.; Chute, Antonie S.; Curti, Kiersten L.; Curtis, Tobey H.; Kircheis, Daniel; Kocik, John F.; Lucey, Sean M.; McCandless, Camilla T.; Milke, Lisa M.; Richardson, David E.; Robillard, Eric; Walsh, Harvey J.; McManus, M. Conor; Marancik, Katrin E.; Griswold, Carolyn A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform

  4. A Comprehensive Assessment and Spatial Analysis of Vulnerability of China’s Provincial Economies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chongqiang Ren

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Vulnerability theory is a fundamental scientific knowledge system in sustainable development, and vulnerability assessment is important in vulnerability studies. Economic vulnerability affects economic growth sustainability. Comprehensive assessment of economic vulnerability in the process of economic growth under the theoretical framework of vulnerability will provide a new perspective for vulnerability studies. Based on a vulnerability scoping diagram assessment model, this study selected 22 economic sensitivity indexes and 25 economic adaptability indexes from the economic, social, and nature–resource–environmental subsystems to comprehensively assess and spatially analyse the vulnerability of China’s provincial economies since the year 2000, while applying the entropy method, multilevel extension assessment, spatial measurement method, and geographic information system technology. The results showed the following: (1 There are great differences in the vulnerability of China’s provincial economies. Western China’s vulnerability is higher and the fluctuation range of economic vulnerability is larger. The vulnerability increased significantly based on spatial differential features; (2 Regional differences in economic vulnerability, mainly caused by differences within a region, increased gradually. Eastern and Western China showed the spatial pattern characteristics of prominent and reinforcing regional imbalance, while Central and Northeast China showed declining regional imbalance. The spatial structure evolution of economic vulnerability is characterized by a volatility curve, and regional separation and divergence are strengthened; (3 Growth of China’s provincial economies and economic vulnerability are related negatively. In Eastern, Central, and Northeast China, vulnerability of the provincial economies has a negative spillover effect on neighbouring provinces’ economic growth, while in Western China it has a slight positive

  5. Multiple flood vulnerability assessment approach based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and coordinated development degree model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Weichao; Xu, Kui; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling; Ma, Chao

    2018-05-01

    Flood is a serious challenge that increasingly affects the residents as well as policymakers. Flood vulnerability assessment is becoming gradually relevant in the world. The purpose of this study is to develop an approach to reveal the relationship between exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity for better flood vulnerability assessment, based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCEM) and coordinated development degree model (CDDM). The approach is organized into three parts: establishment of index system, assessment of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and multiple flood vulnerability assessment. Hydrodynamic model and statistical data are employed for the establishment of index system; FCEM is used to evaluate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity; and CDDM is applied to express the relationship of the three components of vulnerability. Six multiple flood vulnerability types and four levels are proposed to assess flood vulnerability from multiple perspectives. Then the approach is applied to assess the spatiality of flood vulnerability in Hainan's eastern area, China. Based on the results of multiple flood vulnerability, a decision-making process for rational allocation of limited resources is proposed and applied to the study area. The study shows that multiple flood vulnerability assessment can evaluate vulnerability more completely, and help decision makers learn more information about making decisions in a more comprehensive way. In summary, this study provides a new way for flood vulnerability assessment and disaster prevention decision. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Focus on CSIR research in water resources: improved methods for aquifer vulnerability assessments and protocols (AVAP) for producing vulnerability maps, taking into account information on soils

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Colvin, C

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available for Aquifer Vulnerability Assessments and Protocols (AVAP) for producing vulnerability maps, taking into account information on soils Groundwater resources are increas- ingly threatened by pollution. The AVAP project was initiated to develop improved... characteristics. Both intrinsic and specific vulnerability are taken into account. The approach used to determine the vulnerability of the in- termediate zone involved the descrip- tion and quantification of the factors that influence vulnerability (unsatu...

  7. Governance Impact Assessment on Large Infrastructure Project (LIP Delivery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. A. Zarewa

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The linkage of failures of many projects, including Large Infrastructure Projects (LIPs, to governance problems by previous studies implies that governance impacts projects’ performance. Identification and understanding of the impacts have therefore become necessary in order to ensure that projects are governed in a way that will ensure their successful delivery. This study assessed impact of governance on delivery of Large Infrastructure Projects (LIPs through a three phase research approach. The first phase involved literature review followed by semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders/role players in the governance of eight LIPs in different locations in Nigeria in the second phase. A thematic data analysis of the study’s findings was finally conducted in the third phase to identify themes and sub-themes after which conclusions were drawn. The study established that governance impacts LIPs delivery both positively and negatively depending on how the governance is approached. Four LIPs were successful due to proper initiation, setting aside funds for the projects at the onset, proactive risk management, top management support, and simple governance policies and structures. Intuitive initiation on political exigencies, tying funding to erratic sources of funding without contingency arrangement, Procuring Authorities’ (PAs disregard for due process and consultants’ advice, failure of a Procuring Authority (PA to meet contractual obligations and change of government were identified by the study as major governance aspects that led to the abandonment of 4 LIPs. The study concluded that there was a need for significant improvement and standardisation of approaches to governance of LIPs particularly in developing countries like Nigeria and accordingly recommends the development of a governance framework containing guidelines, including sanctions for violators, to guide the governance of the projects in the country.

  8. A Systems-Based Risk Assessment Framework for Intentional Electromagnetic Interference (IEMI) on Critical Infrastructures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oakes, Benjamin Donald; Mattsson, Lars-Göran; Näsman, Per; Glazunov, Andrés Alayón

    2018-01-03

    Modern infrastructures are becoming increasingly dependent on electronic systems, leaving them more vulnerable to electrical surges or electromagnetic interference. Electromagnetic disturbances appear in nature, e.g., lightning and solar wind; however, they may also be generated by man-made technology to maliciously damage or disturb electronic equipment. This article presents a systematic risk assessment framework for identifying possible, consequential, and plausible intentional electromagnetic interference (IEMI) attacks on an arbitrary distribution network infrastructure. In the absence of available data on IEMI occurrences, we find that a systems-based risk assessment is more useful than a probabilistic approach. We therefore modify the often applied definition of risk, i.e., a set of triplets containing scenario, probability, and consequence, to a set of quadruplets: scenario, resource requirements, plausibility, and consequence. Probability is "replaced" by resource requirements and plausibility, where the former is the minimum amount and type of equipment necessary to successfully carry out an attack scenario and the latter is a subjective assessment of the extent of the existence of attackers who possess the motivation, knowledge, and resources necessary to carry out the scenario. We apply the concept of intrusion areas and classify electromagnetic source technology according to key attributes. Worst-case scenarios are identified for different quantities of attacker resources. The most plausible and consequential of these are deemed the most important scenarios and should provide useful decision support in a countermeasures effort. Finally, an example of the proposed risk assessment framework, based on notional data, is provided on a hypothetical water distribution network. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Reliability assessment of power pole infrastructure incorporating deterioration and network maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryan, Paraic C.; Stewart, Mark G.; Spencer, Nathan; Li, Yue

    2014-01-01

    There is considerable investment in timber utility poles worldwide, and there is a need to examine the structural reliability and probability based management optimisation of these power distribution infrastructure elements. The work presented in this paper builds on the existing studies in this area through assessment of both treated and untreated timber power poles, with the effects of deterioration and network maintenance incorporated in the analysis. This more realistic assessment approach, with deterioration and maintenance considered, was achieved using event-based Monte Carlo simulation. The output from the probabilistic model is used to illustrate the importance of considering network maintenance in the time-dependent structural reliability assessment of timber power poles. Under wind load, treated and untreated poles designed and maintained in accordance with existing Australian standards were found to have similar failure rates. However, untreated pole networks required approximately twice as many maintenance based pole replacements to sustain the same level of reliability. The effect of four different network maintenance strategies on infrastructure performance was also investigated herein. This assessment highlighted the fact that slight alterations to network maintenance practices can lead to significant changes in performance of timber power pole networks. - Highlights: • A time-dependent structural reliability model was developed for timber power poles. • Deterioration and network maintenance were incorporated into this event based model. • Network maintenance had a significant impact on power pole wind vulnerability. • Treated and untreated poles designed to Australian standards had similar reliability. • Minor alterations to maintenance strategies had large effects on network performance

  10. Assessment of Seismic Vulnerability of Reinforced Concrete Frame buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatiha Cherifi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The seismic activity remains strong in the north of Algeria since no less than 30 earthquakes per month are recorded. The large number of structures built before the introduction of the seismic standards represents a high seismic risk. Analysis of damage suffered during the last earthquakes highlighted the vulnerability of the existing structures. In this study the seismic behavior of the existing buildings in Tizi-Ouzou city, located in the north of Algeria, is investigated. To make this assessment, a database was created following a building inventory based on a set of technical folders and field visits. The listed buildings have been classified into different typologies. Only reinforced concrete frame buildings are considered in this paper. The approach adopted to estimate structures damage is based on four main steps: 1 construction of capacity curves using static nonlinear method “push-over”, 2 estimate of seismic hazard, 3 determination of performance points, and finally 4 deduction of damage levels.

  11. National Levee Database: monitoring, vulnerability assessment and management in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbetta, Silvia; Camici, Stefania; Maccioni, Pamela; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2015-04-01

    Italian levees and historical breach failures to be exploited in the framework of an operational procedure addressed to the seepage vulnerability assessment of river reaches where the levee system is an important structural measure against flooding. For its structure, INLED is a dynamic geospatial database with ongoing efforts to add levee data from authorities with the charge of hydraulic risk mitigation. In particular, the database is aimed to provide the available information about: i) location and condition of levees; ii) morphological and geometrical properties; iii) photographic documentation; iv) historical levee failures; v) assessment of vulnerability to overtopping and seepage carried out through a procedure based on simple vulnerability indexes (Camici et al. 2014); vi) management, control and maintenance; vii)flood hazard maps developed by assuming the levee system undamaged/damaged during the flood event. Currently, INLED contains data of levees that are mostly located in the Tiber basin, Central Italy. References Apel H., Merz B. & Thieken A.H. Quantification of uncertainties in flood risk assessments. Int J River Basin Manag 2008, 6, (2), 149-162. Camici S,, Barbetta S., Moramarco T., Levee body vulnerability to seepage: the case study of the levee failure along the Foenna stream on 1st January 2006 (central Italy)", Journal of Flood Risk Management, in press. Colleselli F. Geotechnical problems related to river and channel embankments. Rotterdam, the Netherlands: Springer, 1994. H. R.Wallingford Consultants (HRWC). Risk assessment for flood and coastal defence for strategic planning: high level methodology technical report, London, 2003. Mazzoleni M., Bacchi B., Barontini S., Di Baldassarre G., Pilotti M. & Ranzi R. Flooding hazard mapping in floodplain areas affected by piping breaches in the Po River, Italy. J Hydrol Eng 2014, 19, (4), 717-731.

  12. Assessment of bullet effectiveness based on a human vulnerability model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Susu; Xu, C; Wen, Y; Li, G; Zhou, J

    2017-12-25

    Penetrating wounds from explosively propelled fragments and bullets are the most common causes of combat injury. There is a requirement to assess the potential effectiveness of bullets penetrating human tissues in order to optimise preventive measures and wound trauma management. An advanced voxel model based on the Chinese Visible Human data was built. A digital human vulnerability model was established in combination with wound reconstruction and vulnerability assessment rules, in which wound penetration profiles were obtained by recreating the penetration of projectiles into ballistic gelatin. An effectiveness evaluation method of bullet penetration using the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) was developed and solved using the Monte Carlo sampling method. The effectiveness of rifle bullets was demonstrated to increase with increasing velocity in the range of 300-700 m/s. When imparting the same energy, the effectiveness of the 5.56 mm bullet was higher than the 7.62 mm bullet in this model. The superimposition of simulant penetration profiles produced from ballistic gelatin simulant has been used to predict wound tracts in damaged tissues. The authors recognise that determining clinical effectiveness based on the AIS scores alone without verification of outcome by review of clinical hospital records means that this technique should be seen more as a manner of comparing the effectiveness of bullets than an injury prediction model. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  13. Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke

    2016-01-01

    Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...

  14. Economic assessment of strategies to deploy publicly accessible charging infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    Madina, Carlos; Barlag, Heike; Coppola, Giovanni; Gómez-Arriola, Inés; Rodríguez-Sánchez, Raúl; Zabala, Eduardo

    2015-01-01

    From the end user perspective, the main barriers for widespread electric vehicle (EV) adoption are high purchase cost and range anxiety, both regarding battery capacity and availability of accessible EV charging infrastructure. Governments and public bodies in general are taking steps towards overcoming these barriers by, among others, setting up regulatory requirements regarding standardisation, customer information and recommending objectives of publicly accessible charging infrastructure. ...

  15. Review Article: A comparison of flood and earthquake vulnerability assessment indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Ruiter, Marleen C.; Ward, Philip J.; Daniell, James E.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.

    2017-07-01

    In a cross-disciplinary study, we carried out an extensive literature review to increase understanding of vulnerability indicators used in the disciplines of earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments. We provide insights into potential improvements in both fields by identifying and comparing quantitative vulnerability indicators grouped into physical and social categories. Next, a selection of index- and curve-based vulnerability models that use these indicators are described, comparing several characteristics such as temporal and spatial aspects. Earthquake vulnerability methods traditionally have a strong focus on object-based physical attributes used in vulnerability curve-based models, while flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use classes in curve-based models. In assessing the differences and similarities between indicators used in earthquake and flood vulnerability models, we only include models that separately assess either of the two hazard types. Flood vulnerability studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as developing object-based physical vulnerability curve assessments and incorporating time-of-the-day-based building occupation patterns. Likewise, earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies by refining their selection of social vulnerability indicators. Based on the lessons obtained in this study, we recommend future studies for exploring risk assessment methodologies across different hazard types.

  16. Wireless Local Area Network (WLAN) Vulnerability Assessment and Security

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kessel, Adam; Goodwin, Shane

    2005-01-01

    The proliferation of wireless computer equipment and Local Area Networks (LANs) create an increasingly common and growing threat to Marine Corps Network infrastructure and communication security (COMSEC...

  17. An Assessment of Vulnerability and Trade-offs of Dairy Farmers of India to Climate Variability and Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radhakrishnan, Aparna; Gupta, Jancy; Ravindran, Dileepkumar

    2017-04-01

    The study aims at assessing the vulnerability and tradeoffs of dairy based livelihoods to Climate Variability and Change (CVC) in the Western Ghats ecosystem, India. For this purpose; data were aggregated to an overall Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) to CVC underlying the principles of IPCC, using 40 indicators under 7 LVI components. Fussel framework was used for the nomenclature of vulnerable situation and trade-off between vulnerability components and milk production was calculated. Data were collected through participatory rural appraisal and personal interviews from 360 randomly selected dairy farmers of nine blocks from three states of Western Ghat region, complemented by thirty years of gridded weather data and livestock data. The LVI score of dairy based livelihoods of six taluks were negative. The data were normalized and then combined into three indices of sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity, which were then averaged with weights given using principal component analysis, to obtain the overall vulnerability index. Mann Whitney U test was used to find the significant difference between the taluks in terms of LVI and cumulative square root frequency method was used to categorise the farmers. Even though the taluks are geographically closer, there is significant difference in the LVI values of the regions. Results indicated that the Lanja taluks of Maharashtra is the most vulnerable having an overall LVI value -4.17 with 48% farmers falling in highly vulnerable category. Panel regression analysis reveals that there is significant synergy between average milk production and livestock, social network component and trade-off between natural disasters climate variability component of LVI. Policies for incentivizing the 'climate risk adaptation' costs for small and marginal farmers and livelihood infrastructure for mitigating risks and promoting grass root level innovations are necessary to sustain dairy farming of the region. Thus the research will

  18. Social cost impact assessment of pipeline infrastructure projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matthews, John C.; Allouche, Erez N.; Sterling, Raymond L.

    2015-01-01

    A key advantage of trenchless construction methods compared with traditional open-cut methods is their ability to install or rehabilitate underground utility systems with limited disruption to the surrounding built and natural environments. The equivalent monetary values of these disruptions are commonly called social costs. Social costs are often ignored by engineers or project managers during project planning and design phases, partially because they cannot be calculated using standard estimating methods. In recent years some approaches for estimating social costs were presented. Nevertheless, the cost data needed for validation of these estimating methods is lacking. Development of such social cost databases can be accomplished by compiling relevant information reported in various case histories. This paper identifies eight most important social cost categories, presents mathematical methods for calculating them, and summarizes the social cost impacts for two pipeline construction projects. The case histories are analyzed in order to identify trends for the various social cost categories. The effectiveness of the methods used to estimate these values is also discussed. These findings are valuable for pipeline infrastructure engineers making renewal technology selection decisions by providing a more accurate process for the assessment of social costs and impacts. - Highlights: • Identified the eight most important social cost factors for pipeline construction • Presented mathematical methods for calculating those social cost factors • Summarized social cost impacts for two pipeline construction projects • Analyzed those projects to identify trends for the social cost factors

  19. Social cost impact assessment of pipeline infrastructure projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthews, John C., E-mail: matthewsj@battelle.org [Battelle, 7231 Palmetto Dr, Baton Rouge, LA 70808 (United States); Allouche, Erez N., E-mail: allouche@latech.edu [Louisiana Tech University (United States); Sterling, Raymond L., E-mail: sterling@latech.edu [Louisiana Tech University (United States)

    2015-01-15

    A key advantage of trenchless construction methods compared with traditional open-cut methods is their ability to install or rehabilitate underground utility systems with limited disruption to the surrounding built and natural environments. The equivalent monetary values of these disruptions are commonly called social costs. Social costs are often ignored by engineers or project managers during project planning and design phases, partially because they cannot be calculated using standard estimating methods. In recent years some approaches for estimating social costs were presented. Nevertheless, the cost data needed for validation of these estimating methods is lacking. Development of such social cost databases can be accomplished by compiling relevant information reported in various case histories. This paper identifies eight most important social cost categories, presents mathematical methods for calculating them, and summarizes the social cost impacts for two pipeline construction projects. The case histories are analyzed in order to identify trends for the various social cost categories. The effectiveness of the methods used to estimate these values is also discussed. These findings are valuable for pipeline infrastructure engineers making renewal technology selection decisions by providing a more accurate process for the assessment of social costs and impacts. - Highlights: • Identified the eight most important social cost factors for pipeline construction • Presented mathematical methods for calculating those social cost factors • Summarized social cost impacts for two pipeline construction projects • Analyzed those projects to identify trends for the social cost factors.

  20. Risk Assessment Methodology for Protecting Our Critical Physical Infrastructures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    BIRINGER,BETTY E.; DANNEELS,JEFFREY J.

    2000-12-13

    Critical infrastructures are central to our national defense and our economic well-being, but many are taken for granted. Presidential Decision Directive (PDD) 63 highlights the importance of eight of our critical infrastructures and outlines a plan for action. Greatly enhanced physical security systems will be required to protect these national assets from new and emerging threats. Sandia National Laboratories has been the lead laboratory for the Department of Energy (DOE) in developing and deploying physical security systems for the past twenty-five years. Many of the tools, processes, and systems employed in the protection of high consequence facilities can be adapted to the civilian infrastructure.

  1. Assessing Climate Vulnerabilities of Food Distribution Center Sites in Greater Boston and Their Regional Implications: Climate Adaptation Planning in Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teferra, A.; Watson, C.; Douglas, E. M.

    2016-12-01

    The Metro Boston region, an area whose civic leaders have been at the forefront of climate resilience initiatives in recent years, is finalizing a flood vulnerability assessment of food distribution center sites located north of Boston, with the support of the University of Massachusetts Boston and the American Geophysical Union's Thriving Earth Exchange program. The community-scientist collaboration emerged because of the need for more local analyses of the area to inform climate resiliency policy and planning actions for the region. A significant amount of the metro region's food supply passes through two major distribution centers in the cities of Everett and Chelsea, just north of the Mystic River. The Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC), on behalf of the Metro Boston Climate Preparedness Taskforce, is working with Chris Watson and Ellen Douglas of UMass Boston to build on existing analyses of the region's food system and climate vulnerabilities and to develop a report identifying flood risk exposure to the sites. The analysis brings in dynamic modeling techniques that incorporate storm surge and sea level rise projections under different climate scenarios, and aims to align methodologies with those of other regional analyses, such as Climate Ready Boston and the City of Cambridge's Vulnerability Assessment. The study is helping to inform MAPC's and the Metro Boston Climate Preparedness Taskforce's understanding of this critical food distribution infrastructure, illustrate the larger regional implications of climate impacts on food distribution in the Greater Boston area, and guide the development of site-specific strategies for addressing identified vulnerabilities.

  2. Development of a methodology for the assessment of sea level rise impacts on Florida's transportation modes and infrastructure : [summary].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    In Florida, low elevations can make transportation infrastructure in coastal and low-lying areas potentially vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR). Becuase global SLR forecasts lack precision at local or regional scales, SLR forecasts or scenarios for p...

  3. Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment of the Tarkwa Mining Area ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In view of the extensive mining in the Tarkwa area, quality of groundwater has become an important issue. This study estimates aquifer vulnerability by applying the SINTACS model which uses seven environmental parameters to evaluate aquifer vulnerability and geographical information system (GIS) in the Tarkwa mining ...

  4. Hazard risk and vulnerability assessment : Regional District of Nanaimo : final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-06-01

    A Hazard Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (HRVA) is a mandated regulatory requirement in British Columbia that requires local authorities to prepare emergency plans that reflect the local authority's assessment of the relative risk of occurrence and the potential impact on people and property of the hazards, emergencies or disasters that could affect the jurisdictional area for which the local authority has responsibility. This report constituted an HRVA for the Regional District of Nanaimo, British Columbia. It presented the study scope and methodology and provided an overview of the Regional District of Nanaimo. This included information on the setting, demographics, and economy. Next, it discussed social vulnerability; critical response and recovery facilities; and critical infrastructure such as water, energy, telecommunications and transportation. A summary of the Regional District of Nanaimo's response capabilities that were considered when assessing the Regional District's overall risk to the hazards was also presented. Response capabilities were discussed with reference to fire and rescue; police; ambulance; and search and rescue. Emergency support and preparedness organizations were also identified. These included the Emergency Coordination Centre, environmental services, emergency social services, amateur radio and health authorities. Last, 33 hazards that could affect the Regional District of Nanaimo were identified and discussed. The study identified the following hazards as high risk: flooding; forest fires and wildland urban interface fires; and human diseases and pandemic. It was recommended that the advancement of business continuity planning in the Regional District of Nanaimo would help to reduce the impact of a possible human disease and pandemic risk outbreak affecting the population. 75 refs., 25 figs., 14 tabs., 2 appendices

  5. The Gerici project: management of risks related to climate change for infrastructures. First lessons of three years of vulnerability study experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guerard, H.; Ray, M.

    2007-01-01

    Climate change considerably modifies the vulnerability of infrastructures, and such concepts as the 'hundred-year flood' can even become dangerous in this new context. Interesting conclusions were reached for contracting authorities and a specific tool developed for infrastructure operators resulting from three years of research carried out after labelling by the RGCU (civil engineering and urban network) and with co-financing by the public works ministry. This project, managed by Egis (Scetauroute and Bceom) groups Sanef, ASF, Meteo-France, LCPC and Esri France. The article describes the stages in the procedure and the geographical information system (SIG), a user-friendly and transposable support tool for technical and strategic investigations. (authors)

  6. Department of Energy, highly enriched uranium ES ampersand H vulnerability assessment, Idaho National Engineering Laboratory site assessment team report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-01-01

    In accordance with the February 22, 1996 directive issued by Secretary of Energy O'Leary on the Vulnerability Assessment of Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) Storage, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory conducted an assessment of the site's HEU holdings and any associated vulnerabilities. The assessment was conducted between April 25 and May 24, 1996. The scope of this assessment, as defined in the Assessment Plan, included all HEU, and any spent fuel not evaluated in the Spent Fuel Vulnerability Assessment. Addressed in this assessment were all of the holdings at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) except any located at Argonne National Laboratory-West (ANL-W) and the Naval Reactors Facility. Excluded from the assessment were those HEU holdings previously assessed in the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory Spent Nuclear Fuel Inventory and Vulnerability Site Assessment Report and any HEU holdings evaluated in the Plutonium Vulnerability Assessment Report

  7. A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Richard J.; Thompson, David; Johns, Daniel; Wood, Ruth; Darch, Geoff; Chapman, Lee; Hughes, Paul N.; Watson, Geoff V. R.; Paulson, Kevin; Bell, Sarah; Gosling, Simon N.; Powrie, William; Hall, Jim W.

    2018-06-01

    Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  8. A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, David; Johns, Daniel; Darch, Geoff; Paulson, Kevin

    2018-01-01

    Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712793

  9. Assessing the energy vulnerability: Case of industrialised countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnansounou, Edgard

    2008-01-01

    The emergence of new big consumer countries on the energy markets and the perspective of oil and gas depletion at the end of the current century raise the concerns about fair distribution of the remaining resources for the common and sustainable well-being of the mankind. High volatility of energy prices discourages the investment and delays the energy technology transition. Voluntary measures are needed mainly in industrialised countries in order to develop alternative and sustainable energy sources, to enable technology transfer towards emerging and developing countries and to avoid struggle for energy procurement. In this paper, a composite index of energy demand/supply weaknesses is defined as a proxy of energy vulnerability. The proposed index is based on several indicators such as energy intensity, oil and gas import dependency, CO 2 content of primary energy supply, electricity supply weaknesses and non-diversity in transport fuels. The assessment of this composite index for selected industrialised countries is discussed as well as the sensitivity to various factors

  10. Modeling the Connectedness Between best Management Practices and Vulnerability Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anandhi, A.; Bailey, N.; Thomas, M.; Bartnick, B.

    2015-12-01

    The overall goal of this study is to better understand the connectedness between Best management practices (BMPs) and vulnerability assessments (VA) in a changing landuse. Developing this connectedness will help understand key vulnerabilities and improve adaptive capacity important for ecosystem sustainability. BMPs are practical management practices or systems designed and installed in watersheds to provide a wide range of effects to protect or restore the physical, chemical, and biological condition of waterbodies (e.g. changing hydrology; improving vegetative habitat; mitigate adverse environmental change). VAs can be defined as "the degree to which the system is susceptible to and is unable to cope with adverse effects of change" and are often characterized as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. There are many variables and factors used in calculating the impact of BMPs and VAs. The event mean concentration or load (e.g. nutrient, sediment,) associated with the specific landuse is an important variable. There is much data that predicts the loads associated with the major landuses (urban, agricultural). Loads greatly vary with region; rainfall characteristics (e.g. rainfall intensity, rainfall frequency); soil characteristics (e.g. soil type, hydrologic soil groups); hydrologic characteristics (e.g. runoff potential). A concern also exists that possibly all of the variables associated with changes in an individual land use have not been identified and distinguished for their impact on land use. For example, the loads associated with a high density residential with much green space may be more similar to medium density than loads associated with high rise apartment buildings. Other factors may include age of construction, % of families with children, % of families with pets, level of transiency, and construction activity The objective of our study is to develop an initial framework using multiple variables and factors to represent the

  11. Intrinsic vulnerability assessment of Sette Comuni Plateau aquifer (Veneto Region, Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucchi, Franco; Franceschini, Giuliana; Zini, Luca; Aurighi, Marina

    2008-09-01

    Maps illustrating the different degrees of vulnerability within a given area are integral to environmental protection and management policies. The assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of karst areas is difficult since the type and stage of karst development and the related underground discharge behavior are difficult to determine and quantify. Geographic Information Systems techniques are applied to the evaluation of the vulnerability of an aquifer in the alpine karst area of the Sette Comuni Plateau, in the Veneto Region of northern Italy. The water resources of the studied aquifer are of particular importance to the local communities. This aquifer must therefore be protected from both inappropriate use as well as possible pollution. The SINTACS and SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) vulnerability assessment methods have been utilized here to create the vulnerability map. SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) is an adaptation of the parametric managerial model (SINTACS) to karst hydrostructures. The vulnerability map reveals vast zones (81% of the analyzed areas) with a high degree of vulnerability. The presence of well-developed karst structures in these highly vulnerable areas facilitate water percolation, thereby enhancing the groundwater vulnerability risk. Only 1.5 of the studied aquifer have extremely high-vulnerability levels, however these areas include all of the major springs utilized for human consumption. This vulnerability map of the Sette Comuni Plateau aquifer is an indispensable tool for both the effective management of water resources and as support to environmental planning in the Sette Comuni Plateau area.

  12. Optimal recovery sequencing for critical infrastructure resilience assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vugrin, Eric D.; Brown, Nathanael J. K.; Turnquist, Mark Alan (Cornell University, Ithaca, NY)

    2010-09-01

    Critical infrastructure resilience has become a national priority for the U. S. Department of Homeland Security. System resilience has been studied for several decades in many different disciplines, but no standards or unifying methods exist for critical infrastructure resilience analysis. This report documents the results of a late-start Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project that investigated the identification of optimal recovery strategies that maximize resilience. To this goal, we formulate a bi-level optimization problem for infrastructure network models. In the 'inner' problem, we solve for network flows, and we use the 'outer' problem to identify the optimal recovery modes and sequences. We draw from the literature of multi-mode project scheduling problems to create an effective solution strategy for the resilience optimization model. We demonstrate the application of this approach to a set of network models, including a national railroad model and a supply chain for Army munitions production.

  13. Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program: Overview of Assessment Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    .... Over the last three years, a team of national laboratory experts, working in partnership with the energy industry, has successfully applied the methodology as part of OCIP's Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program (VRAP...

  14. Assessing node risk and vulnerability in epidemics on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, T.

    2015-01-01

    Which nodes are most vulnerable to an epidemic spreading through a network, and which carry the highest risk of causing a major outbreak if they are the source of the infection? Here we show how these questions can be answered to good approximation using the cavity method. Several curious properties of node vulnerability and risk are explored: some nodes are more vulnerable than others to weaker infections, yet less vulnerable to stronger ones; a node is always more likely to be caught in an outbreak than it is to start one, except when the disease has a deterministic lifetime; the rank order of node risk depends on the details of the distribution of infectious periods.

  15. Assessing Financial System Vulnerabilities: An Early Warning Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Gurnain Pasricha; Tom Roberts; Ian Christensen; Brad Howell

    2013-01-01

    This article focuses on a quantitative method to identify financial system vulnerabilities, specifically, an imbalance indicator model (IIM) and its application to Canada. An IIM identifies potential vulnerabilities in a financial system by comparing current economic and financial data with data from periods leading up to past episodes of financial stress. It complements other sources of information - including market intelligence and regular monitoring of the economy - that policy-makers use...

  16. Integrating Science and Management to Assess Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Christopher W. Swanston

    2017-01-01

    We developed the ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach (EVAA) to help inform potential adaptation actions in response to a changing climate. EVAA combines multiple quantitative models and expert elicitation from scientists and land managers. In each of eight assessment areas, a panel of local experts determined potential vulnerability of forest ecosystems to...

  17. Tsunami Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk assessment for the coast of Oman

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, Mauricio; Aniel-Quiroga, Íñigo; Aguirre-Ayerbe, Ignacio; Álvarez-Gómez, José Antonio; MArtínez, Jara; Gonzalez-Riancho, Pino; Fernandez, Felipe; Medina, Raúl; Al-Yahyai, Sultan

    2016-04-01

    Tsunamis are relatively infrequent phenomena representing a greater threat than earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes, and causing the loss of thousands of human lives and extensive damage to coastal infrastructures around the world. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of new methodologies in this field. This work presents the methodology that has been followed for developing the tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment for the coast of Oman, including maps containing the results of the process. Oman is located in the south eastern corner of the Arabian Peninsula and of the Arabian plate, in front of the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), which is the major source of earthquakes in the eastern border of the Arabian plate and Oman (Al-Shaqsi, 2012). There are at least three historical tsunamis assigned to seismic origin in the MSZ (Heidarzadeh et al., 2008; Jordan, 2008). These events show the high potential for tsunami generation of the MSZ, being one of the most tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean. For the tsunami hazard assessment, worst potential cases have been selected, as well as the historical case of 1945, when an 8.1 earthquake generated a tsunami affecting the coast of Oman, and prompting 4000 casualties in the countries of the area. These scenarios have been computationally simulated in order to get tsunami hazard maps, including flooding maps. These calculations have been carried out at national and local scale, in 9 municipalities all along the coast of Oman, including the cities of Sohar, Wudam, Sawadi, Muscat, Quriyat, Sur, Masirah, Al Duqm, and Salalah. Using the hazard assessment as input, this work presents as well an integrated framework for the tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment carried out in the Sultanate of Oman. This framework considers different dimensions (human, structural) and it is developed at two different spatial resolutions, national and local scale. The national

  18. Assessment of the vulnerability and the resilience of the population at risk of multi-hazard: a support to geo-risk management in Central Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michellier, Caroline; Kervyn, François; Tréfon, Théodore; Wolff, Eléonore

    2013-04-01

    GeoRisCA is a project which aims at studying the geo-risk in the Kivu region (DRC, Rwanda, Burundi), in order to support risk management. The approach developed in GeoRisCA combines methodologies from various disciplines, which will allow the analyses of seismic, volcanic and mass-movement hazards and the vulnerability assessment of the threatened elements. Vulnerability is a complex concept which is commonly defined as the susceptibility of the population, the infrastructures and the natural ecosystems to suffer from damages if a hazard occurs. The densely populated area extended from the North Kivu province in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to North Burundi and East Rwanda is vulnerable to several geohazards, such as landslides triggered by geodynamical processes (climate, seismicity, volcanism) and possibly worsen by anthropic actions. Located in the East African rift valley, the region is also characterized by a strong seismicity, with increasing people and infrastructure exposed. In addition, east DRC hosts the two most active African volcanoes: Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira. Their activity can have serious impacts, as in 2002 when Nyiragongo directly endangers the ~800.000 inhabitants of Goma city, located ~15 km to the south. Linked to passive volcanic degassing, SO2 and CO2 discharge may also increase the population vulnerability(morbidity, mortality). Focusing specifically on this region, the vulnerability assessment methodology developed in GeoRisCA takes into account "exposure to perturbations" and "adaptive capacity or resilience" of the vulnerable systems. On one hand, the exposure is identified as the potential degree of loss of a given element or set of elements at risk; i.e., the susceptibility of people, infrastructures and buildings with respect to a hazard (social vulnerability). It focuses mainly on land use, and on demographic and socio-economic factors that increase or attenuate the impacts of hazards events on local populations. On the

  19. Assessing the development of Kenya National Spatial Data Infrastructure (KNSDI)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Okuku, J.; Bregt, A.K.; Grus, L.

    2014-01-01

    Spatial data plays a vital role in developmental activities, whether natural resource management or socio-economic development. Spatial Data Infrastructures (SDIs) facilitate access, sharing and dissemination of spatial data necessary for complex decision-making processes of the future. Thus,

  20. A Multi-view Framework to Assess Spatial Data Infrastructures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crompvoets, J.W.H.C.; Rajabifard, A.; Loenen, van B.; Delgado Fernandez, T.

    2008-01-01

    There is growing interest internationally in the role that Spatial Data Infrastructures SDIs play as key tools in supporting sustainable development. SDIs, as defined in the context of this book, are network-based national solutions to provide easy, consistent and effective access to geographic

  1. Vulnerability of roads and associated structures to the effects of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arisz, H.; Therrien, M.; Burrell, B.C.; LeBlanc, M.M.

    2009-01-01

    The vulnerability of roads and associated structures in the City of Greater Sudbury to the effects of climate change was evaluated using the Public Infrastructure Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC) Engineering Protocol for Climate Change Infrastructure Assessment. Study objectives were to evaluate the vulnerability of road-related infrastructure in Greater Sudbury to climate change, and to identify potential impediments to the application of the protocol in other municipalities. Based on the experience gained during this study, recommendations were provided with respect to the vulnerabilities of roads and associated structures to the predicted effects of climate change and the performance of vulnerability assessments. (author)

  2. Savannah River Site management response plan for chemical safety vulnerability field assessment. Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kahal, E.J.; Murphy, S.L.; Salaymeh, S.R.

    1994-09-01

    As part of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) initiative to identify potential chemical safety vulnerabilities in the DOE complex, the Chemical Safety Vulnerability Core Working Group issued a field verification assessment report. While the report concluded that Savannah River Site (SRS) is moving in a positive direction, the report also identified five chemical safety vulnerabilities with broad programmatic impact that are not easily nor quickly remedied. The May 1994 SRS Management Response Plan addressed the five SRS vulnerabilities identified in the field assessment report. The SRS response plan listed observations supporting the vulnerabilities and any actions taken or planned toward resolution. Many of the observations were resolved by simple explanations, such as the existence of implementation plans for Safety Analysis Report updates. Recognizing that correcting individual observations does not suffice in remedying the vulnerabilities, a task team was assembled to address the broader programmatic issues and to recommend corrective actions

  3. Environmental Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment in Urban Water Mines (Porto, NW Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria José Afonso

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available A multidisciplinary approach was developed to estimate urban groundwater vulnerability to contamination combining hydrogeology, hydrogeochemistry, subterranean hydrogeotechnics, groundwater ecotoxicology and isotope tracers. Paranhos and Salgueiros spring waters in Porto City were used as a case study. Historical and current vulnerability scenarios were compared using hydrogeological GIS-based modelling. Potential contamination sources were mapped around the spring galleries. Most of these were point sources and their potential contamination load was moderate. The ecotoxicological assessment indicated a low acute toxicity potential. Groundwater radionuclides appeared to be mainly controlled by geological factors and biomineralisation. Vulnerability maps suggest that most of the area has a moderate to low vulnerability to contamination. However, some surface sources such as sewage systems cause contamination and contribute to increased vulnerability. This integrated approach was demonstrated to be adequate for a better knowledge of urban hydrogeological processes and their dynamics, and highlighted the importance of a vulnerability assessment in urban areas.

  4. Assessing the Agricultural Vulnerability for India under Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Tarul; Vardhan Murari, Harsha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Ghosh, Subimal; Singh, Jitendra

    2016-04-01

    Global climate change has proven to show majorly negative impacts for the far future. These negative impacts adversely affect almost all the fields including agriculture, water resources, tourism, and marine ecosystem. Among these, the effects on agriculture are considered to be of prime importance since its regional impacts can directly affect the global food security. Under such lines, it becomes essential to understand how climate change directs agricultural production for a region along with its vulnerability. In India, rice and wheat are considered as major staple diet and hence understanding its production loss/gain due to regional vulnerability to climate change becomes necessary. Here, an attempt has been made to understand the agricultural vulnerability for rice and wheat, considering yield as a function of temperature and precipitation during growing period. In order to accomplish this objective, the ratio of actual to potential evapo-transpiration has been considered which serves as a reliable indicator; with more this ratio towards unity, less vulnerable will be the region. The current objective needs an integration of climatic, hydrological and agricultural parameters; that can be achieved by simulating a climate data driven hydrologic (Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC) model and a crop (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, DSSAT) model. The proposed framework is an attempt to derive a crop vulnerability map that can facilitate in strategizing adaption practices which can reduce the adverse impacts of climate change in future.

  5. Reconsidering the risk assessment concept: Standardizing the impact description as a building block for vulnerability assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Hollenstein

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessments for natural hazards are becoming more widely used and accepted. Using an extended definition of risk, it becomes obvious that performant procedures for vulnerability assessments are vital for the success of the risk concept. However, there are large gaps in knowledge about vulnerability. To alleviate the situation, a conceptual extension of the scope of existing and new models is suggested. The basis of the suggested concept is a stadardization of the output of hazard assessments. This is achieved by defining states of the target objects that depend on the impact and at the same time affect the object's performance characteristics. The possible state variables can be related to a limited set of impact descriptors termed generic impact description interface. The concept suggests that both hazard and vulnerability assessment models are developed according to the specification of this interface, thus facilitating modularized risk assessments. Potential problems related to the application of the concept include acceptance issues and the lacking accuracy of transformation of outputs of existing models. Potential applications and simple examples for adapting existing models are briefly discussed.

  6. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices (2011 Final)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has released the final report titled, Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices. This report was prepared by the National Center for Environmental Assessment's Global Climate Research Staff in the Office of Research and D...

  7. Applying spatial clustering analysis to a township-level social vulnerability assessment in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Yen Lin

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The degree of social vulnerability may vary according to the conditions and backgrounds of different locations, yet spatial clustering phenomena may exist when nearby spatial units exhibit similar characteristics. This study applied spatial autocorrelation statistics to analyze the spatial association of vulnerability among townships in Taiwan. The vulnerability was first assessed on the basis of a social vulnerability index that was constructed using Fuzzy Delphi and analytic hierarchy process methods. Subsequently, the corresponding indicator variables were applied to calculate standardized vulnerability assessment scores by using government data. According to the results of the vulnerability assessment in which T scores were normalized, the distribution of social vulnerabilities varied among the townships. The scores were further analyzed using spatial autocorrelation statistics for spatial clustering of vulnerability distribution. The Local G statistic identified 42 significant spatial association pockets, whereas the Global G statistic indicated no spatial phenomenon of clustering. This phenomenon was verified and explained by applying Moran's I statistics to examine the homogeneity and heterogeneity of spatial associations. Although both statistics were originally designed to identify the existence of spatial clustering, they serve diverse purposes, and the results can be compared to obtain additional insights into the distribution patterns of social vulnerability.

  8. Methodology for assessing electric vehicle charging infrastructure business models

    OpenAIRE

    Madina, Carlos; Zamora, Inmaculada; Zabala, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    The analysis of economic implications of innovative business models in networked environments, as electro-mobility is, requires a global approach to ensure that all the involved actors obtain a benefit. Although electric vehicles (EVs) provide benefits for the society as a whole, there are a number of hurdles for their widespread adoption, mainly the high investment cost for the EV and for the infrastructure. Therefore, a sound business model must be built up for charging service operators, w...

  9. The arctic water resource vulnerability index: An integrated assessment tool for community resilience and vulnerability with respect to freshwater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alessa, L.; Kliskey, A.; Lammers, R.; Arp, C.; White, D.; Hinzman, L.; Busey, R.

    2008-01-01

    People in the Arctic face uncertainty in their daily lives as they contend with environmental changes at a range of scales from local to global. Freshwater is a critical resource to people, and although water resource indicators have been developed that operate from regional to global scales and for midlatitude to equatorial environments, no appropriate index exists for assessing the vulnerability of Arctic communities to changing water resources at the local scale. The Arctic Water Resource Vulnerability Index (AWRVI) is proposed as a tool that Arctic communities can use to assess their relative vulnerability-resilience to changes in their water resources from a variety of biophysical and socioeconomic processes. The AWRVI is based on a social-ecological systems perspective that includes physical and social indicators of change and is demonstrated in three case study communities/watersheds in Alaska. These results highlight the value of communities engaging in the process of using the AWRVI and the diagnostic capability of examining the suite of constituent physical and social scores rather than the total AWRVI score alone. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

  10. Assessing the impact of sea-level rise on a vulnerable coastal community in Accra, Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwasi Appeaning Addo

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and its associated sea-level rise are expected to significantly affect vulnerable coastal communities. Although the extent of the impact will be localised, its assessment will adopt a monitoring approach that applies globally. The topography of the beach, the type of geological material and the level of human intervention will determine the extent of the area to be flooded and the rate at which the shoreline will move inland. Gleefe, a coastal community in Ghana, has experienced frequent flooding in recent times due to the increasing occurrence of storm surge and sea-level rise. This study used available geospatial data and field measurements to determine how the beach topography has contributed to the incidence of flooding at Gleefe. The topography is generally low-lying. Sections of the beach have elevations of around 1 m, which allows seawater to move inland during very high tide. Accelerated sea-level rise as predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC will destroy homes of the inhabitants and inundate the Densu wetlands behind the beach. Destruction of infrastructure will render the inhabitants homeless, whilst flooding of the wetlands will destroy the habitats of migratory birds and some endangered wildlife species such as marine turtle. Effective adaptation measures should be adopted to protect this very important coastal environment, the ecology of the wetlands and the livelihoods of the community dwellers.

  11. Holistic uncertainty analysis in river basin modeling for climate vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taner, M. U.; Wi, S.; Brown, C.

    2017-12-01

    The challenges posed by uncertain future climate are a prominent concern for water resources managers. A number of frameworks exist for assessing the impacts of climate-related uncertainty, including internal climate variability and anthropogenic climate change, such as scenario-based approaches and vulnerability-based approaches. While in many cases climate uncertainty may be dominant, other factors such as future evolution of the river basin, hydrologic response and reservoir operations are potentially significant sources of uncertainty. While uncertainty associated with modeling hydrologic response has received attention, very little attention has focused on the range of uncertainty and possible effects of the water resources infrastructure and management. This work presents a holistic framework that allows analysis of climate, hydrologic and water management uncertainty in water resources systems analysis with the aid of a water system model designed to integrate component models for hydrology processes and water management activities. The uncertainties explored include those associated with climate variability and change, hydrologic model parameters, and water system operation rules. A Bayesian framework is used to quantify and model the uncertainties at each modeling steps in integrated fashion, including prior and the likelihood information about model parameters. The framework is demonstrated in a case study for the St. Croix Basin located at border of United States and Canada.

  12. Vulnerability Assessment by Learning Attack Specifications in Graphs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nunes Leal Franqueira, V.; Lopes, Raul H.C.

    This paper presents an evolutionary approach for learning attack specifications that describe attack scenarios. The objective is to find vulnerabilities in computer networks which minimise the cost of an attack with maximum impact. Although we focus on Insider Threat, the proposed approach applies

  13. Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment using Drastic Index and GIS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael

    2016-06-01

    Jun 1, 2016 ... The "Low" and "Very Low" vulnerability are located at the northern, central and southern parts of KMA ..... the contaminant is soluble in water and flows with it and is ... the aquifer, the higher the permeability and hence higher ...

  14. How urban system vulnerabilities to flooding could be assessed to improve resilience and adaptation in spatial planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasi, Riccardo; Viavattene, Christophe; La Loggia, Goffredo

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards damage assets and infrastructure inducing disruptions to urban functions and key daily services. These disruptions may be short or long with a variable spatial scale of impact. From an urban planning perspective, measuring these disruptions and their consequences at an urban scale is fundamental in order to develop more resilient cities. Whereas the assessment of physical vulnerabilities and direct damages is commonly addressed, new methodologies for assessing the systemic vulnerability at the urban scale are required to reveal these disruptions and their consequences. Physical and systemic vulnerability should be measured in order to reflect the multifaceted fragility of cities in the face of external stress, both in terms of the natural/built environment and socio-economic sphere. Additionally, a systemic approach allows the consideration of vulnerability across different spatial scales, as impacts may vary and be transmitted across local, regional or national levels. Urban systems are spatially distributed and the nature of this can have significant effects on flood impacts. The proposed approach identifies the vulnerabilities of flooding within urban contexts, including both in terms of single elementary units (buildings, infrastructures, people, etc.) and systemic functioning (urban functions and daily life networks). Direct losses are appraised initially using conventional methodologies (e.g. depth-damage functions). This aims to both understand the spatial distribution of physical vulnerability and associated losses and, secondly, to identify the most vulnerable building types and ways to improve the physical adaptation of our cities, proposing changes to building codes, design principles and other municipal regulation tools. The subsequent systemic approach recognises the city as a collection of sub-systems or functional units (such as neighbourhoods and suburbs) providing key daily services for inhabitants (e.g. healthcare facilities

  15. Vulnerability Assessment of Rural Households to Urmia Lake Drying (the Case of Shabestar Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasoul Maleki

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important environmental problems in Iran is the destruction and drying of Urmia Lake (UL. UL is one of the main causes of suitable weather for agricultural boom and tourist attraction and it should be considered that the villagers exposed to UL drying have a strong dependence on vulnerable resources such as water, air, soil and plants for their livelihoods and have low adaptive capacity with this crisis for reasons such as poverty, lack of awareness and lack of infrastructure. This study was designed to evaluate the vulnerability of rural households to UL drying in the Shabestar region. The vulnerability was calculated based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC definition and using vulnerability index (VI. Research population included rural households of Shabestar region (N = 19,249 and about 347 households were selected as the research sample using multistage cluster sampling technique. Results showed that the average score of respondents was 0.455 (moderate in exposure, 0.359 (moderate to low in sensitivity, 0.404 (moderate to low in adaptive capacity and finally, the vulnerability index (VI was 0.470 (range of 0 to 1. 12.8% of households had low, 70.5% had medium and 16.7% had high vulnerability towards UL drying.

  16. Development and Application of Urban Landslide Vulnerability Assessment Methodology Reflecting Social and Economic Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoonkyung Park

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available An urban landslide vulnerability assessment methodology is proposed with major focus on considering urban social and economic aspects. The proposed methodology was developed based on the landslide susceptibility maps that Korean Forest Service utilizes to identify landslide source areas. Frist, debris flows are propagated to urban areas from such source areas by Flow-R (flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a regional scale, and then urban vulnerability is assessed by two categories: physical and socioeconomic aspect. The physical vulnerability is related to buildings that can be impacted by a landslide event. This study considered two popular building structure types, reinforced-concrete frame and nonreinforced-concrete frame, to assess the physical vulnerability. The socioeconomic vulnerability is considered a function of the resistant levels of the vulnerable people, trigger factor of secondary damage, and preparedness level of the local government. An index-based model is developed to evaluate the life and indirect damage under landslide as well as the resilience ability against disasters. To illustrate the validity of the proposed methodology, physical and socioeconomic vulnerability levels are analyzed for Seoul, Korea, using the suggested approach. The general trend found in this study indicates that the higher population density areas under a weaker fiscal condition that are located at the downstream of mountainous areas are more vulnerable than the areas in opposite conditions.

  17. 75 FR 51806 - Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-23

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9192-2; Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-ORD-2010-0701] Climate Change... period for the draft document titled, ``Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of... vulnerability to future climate change. The report is intended to illustrate the types of analyses, models, and...

  18. A rating tool to assess the condition of South African infrastructure

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Wall, K

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In 2006 the South African Institution of Civil Engineering (SAICE), in partnership with the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), released the first ever “report card” assessment rating of the condition of engineering infrastructure...

  19. Applying and validating the PTVA-3 Model at the Aeolian Islands, Italy: assessment of the vulnerability of buildings to tsunamis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dall'Osso

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The volcanic archipelago of the Aeolian Islands (Sicily, Italy is included on the UNESCO World Heritage list and is visited by more than 200 000 tourists per year. Due to its geological characteristics, the risk related to volcanic and seismic activity is particularly high. Since 1916 the archipelago has been hit by eight local tsunamis. The most recent and intense of these events happened on 30 December 2002. It was triggered by two successive landslides along the north-western side of the Stromboli volcano (Sciara del Fuoco, which poured approximately 2–3×107 m3 of rocks and debris into the Tyrrhenian Sea. The waves impacted across the whole archipelago, but most of the damage to buildings and infrastructures occurred on the islands of Stromboli (maximum run-up 11 m and Panarea.

    The aim of this study is to assess the vulnerability of buildings to damage from tsunamis located within the same area inundated by the 2002 event. The assessment is carried out by using the PTVA-3 Model (Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment, version 3. The PTVA-3 Model calculates a Relative Vulnerability Index (RVI for every building, based on a set of selected physical and structural attributes. Run-up values within the area inundated by the 2002 tsunami were measured and mapped by the Istituto Italiano di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV and the University of Bologna during field surveys in January 2003. Results of the assessment show that if the same tsunami were to occur today, 54 buildings would be affected in Stromboli, and 5 in Panarea. The overall vulnerability level obtained in this analysis for Stromboli and Panarea are "average"/"low" and "very low", respectively. Nonetheless, 14 buildings in Stromboli are classified as having a "high" or "average" vulnerability. For some buildings, we were able to validate the RVI scores calculated by the PTVA-3 Model through a qualitative comparison with photographs taken by INGV and

  20. Intrinsic vulnerability assessment of shallow aquifers of the sedimentary basin of southwestern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saheed A. Oke

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The shallow groundwater of the multi-layered sedimentary basin aquifer of southwestern Nigeria was assessed based on its intrinsic vulnerability property. The vulnerability evaluation involves determining the protective cover and infiltration condition of the unsaturated zone in the basin. This was achieved using the PI (P stands for protective cover effectiveness of the overlying lithology and I indicates the degree of infiltration bypass vulnerability method of the European vulnerability approach. The PI method specifically measures the protection cover and the degree to which the protective cover is bypassed. Intrinsic parameters assessed were the subsoil, lithology, topsoil, recharge and fracturing for the protective cover. The saturated hydraulic conductivity of topsoil, infiltration processes and the lateral surface and subsurface flow were evaluated for the infiltration bypassed. The results show moderate to very low vulnerability areas. Low vulnerability areas were characterised by lithology with massive sandstone and limestone, subsoils of sandy loam texture, high slopes and high depth to water table. The moderate vulnerability areas were characterised by high rainfall and high recharge, low water table, unconsolidated sandstones and alluvium lithology. The intrinsic vulnerability properties shown in vulnerability maps will be a useful tool in planning and monitoring land use activities that can be of impact in groundwater pollution.

  1. Methodology for assessing electric vehicle charging infrastructure business models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madina, Carlos; Zamora, Inmaculada; Zabala, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    The analysis of economic implications of innovative business models in networked environments, as electro-mobility is, requires a global approach to ensure that all the involved actors obtain a benefit. Although electric vehicles (EVs) provide benefits for the society as a whole, there are a number of hurdles for their widespread adoption, mainly the high investment cost for the EV and for the infrastructure. Therefore, a sound business model must be built up for charging service operators, which allows them to recover their costs while, at the same time, offer EV users a charging price which makes electro-mobility comparable to internal combustion engine vehicles. For that purpose, three scenarios are defined, which present different EV charging alternatives, in terms of charging power and charging station ownership and accessibility. A case study is presented for each scenario and the required charging station usage to have a profitable business model is calculated. We demonstrate that private home charging is likely to be the preferred option for EV users who can charge at home, as it offers a lower total cost of ownership under certain conditions, even today. On the contrary, finding a profitable business case for fast charging requires more intensive infrastructure usage. - Highlights: • Ecosystem is a network of actors who collaborate to create a positive business case. • Electro-mobility (electricity-powered road vehicles and ICT) is a complex ecosystem. • Methodological analysis to ensure that all actors benefit from electro-mobility. • Economic analysis of charging infrastructure deployment linked to its usage. • Comparison of EV ownership cost vs. ICE for vehicle users.

  2. Building vulnerability to hydro-geomorphic hazards: Estimating damage probability from qualitative vulnerability assessment using logistic regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ettinger, Susanne; Mounaud, Loïc; Magill, Christina; Yao-Lafourcade, Anne-Françoise; Thouret, Jean-Claude; Manville, Vern; Negulescu, Caterina; Zuccaro, Giulio; De Gregorio, Daniela; Nardone, Stefano; Uchuchoque, Juan Alexis Luque; Arguedas, Anita; Macedo, Luisa; Manrique Llerena, Nélida

    2016-10-01

    The focus of this study is an analysis of building vulnerability through investigating impacts from the 8 February 2013 flash flood event along the Avenida Venezuela channel in the city of Arequipa, Peru. On this day, 124.5 mm of rain fell within 3 h (monthly mean: 29.3 mm) triggering a flash flood that inundated at least 0.4 km2 of urban settlements along the channel, affecting more than 280 buildings, 23 of a total of 53 bridges (pedestrian, vehicle and railway), and leading to the partial collapse of sections of the main road, paralyzing central parts of the city for more than one week. This study assesses the aspects of building design and site specific environmental characteristics that render a building vulnerable by considering the example of a flash flood event in February 2013. A statistical methodology is developed that enables estimation of damage probability for buildings. The applied method uses observed inundation height as a hazard proxy in areas where more detailed hydrodynamic modeling data is not available. Building design and site-specific environmental conditions determine the physical vulnerability. The mathematical approach considers both physical vulnerability and hazard related parameters and helps to reduce uncertainty in the determination of descriptive parameters, parameter interdependency and respective contributions to damage. This study aims to (1) enable the estimation of damage probability for a certain hazard intensity, and (2) obtain data to visualize variations in damage susceptibility for buildings in flood prone areas. Data collection is based on a post-flood event field survey and the analysis of high (sub-metric) spatial resolution images (Pléiades 2012, 2013). An inventory of 30 city blocks was collated in a GIS database in order to estimate the physical vulnerability of buildings. As many as 1103 buildings were surveyed along the affected drainage and 898 buildings were included in the statistical analysis. Univariate and

  3. Comparison of Flood Vulnerability Assessments to Climate Change by Construction Frameworks for a Composite Indicator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jong Seok Lee

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available As extreme weather conditions due to climate change can cause deadly flood damages all around the world, a role of the flood vulnerability assessment has become recognized as one of the preemptive measures in nonstructural flood mitigation strategies. Although the flood vulnerability is most commonly assessed by a composite indicator compiled from multidimensional phenomena and multiple conflicting criteria associated with floods, directly or indirectly, it has been often overlooked that the construction frameworks and processes can have a significant influence on the flood vulnerability indicator outcomes. This study has, therefore, compared the flood vulnerability ranking orders for the 54 administrative districts in the Nakdong River Watershed of the Korean Peninsula, ranked from composite indicators by different frameworks and multi-attribute utility functions for combining the three assessment components, such as exposure, sensitivity, and coping, presented in the IPCC Third Assessment Report. The results show that the different aggregation components and utility functions under the same proxy variable system can lead to larger volatility of flood vulnerability rankings than expected. It is concluded that the vulnerability indicator needs to be derived from all three assessment components by a multiplicative utility function for a desirable flood vulnerability assessment to climate change.

  4. Global assessment of water policy vulnerability under uncertainty in water scarcity projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Byers, Edward; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

    2017-04-01

    Water scarcity is a critical environmental issue worldwide, which has been driven by the significant increase in water extractions during the last century. In the coming decades, climate change is projected to further exacerbate water scarcity conditions in many regions around the world. At present, one important question for policy debate is the identification of water policy interventions that could address the mounting water scarcity problems. Main interventions include investing in water storage infrastructures, water transfer canals, efficient irrigation systems, and desalination plants, among many others. This type of interventions involve long-term planning, long-lived investments and some irreversibility in choices which can shape development of countries for decades. Making decisions on these water infrastructures requires anticipating the long term environmental conditions, needs and constraints under which they will function. This brings large uncertainty in the decision-making process, for instance from demographic or economic projections. But today, climate change is bringing another layer of uncertainty that make decisions even more complex. In this study, we assess in a probabilistic approach the uncertainty in global water scarcity projections following different socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and climate scenarios (RCPs) within the first half of the 21st century. By utilizing an ensemble of 45 future water scarcity projections based on (i) three state-of-the-art global hydrological models (PCR-GLOBWB, H08, and WaterGAP), (ii) five climate models, and (iii) three water scenarios, we have assessed changes in water scarcity and the associated uncertainty distribution worldwide. The water scenarios used here are developed by IIASA's Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative. The main objective of this study is to improve the contribution of hydro-climatic information to effective policymaking by identifying spatial and temporal policy

  5. Seismic vulnerability assessment of chemical plants through probabilistic neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aoki, T.; Ceravolo, R.; De Stefano, A.; Genovese, C.; Sabia, D.

    2002-01-01

    A chemical industrial plant represents a sensitive presence in a region and, in case of severe damage due to earthquake actions, its impact on social life and environment can be devastating. From the structural point of view, chemical plants count a number of recurrent elements, which are classifiable in a discrete set of typological families (towers, chimneys, cylindrical or spherical or prismatic tanks, pipes etc.). The final aim of this work is to outline a general procedure to be followed in order to assign a seismic vulnerability estimate to each element of the various typological families. In this paper, F.E. simulations allowed to create a training set, which has been used to train a probabilistic neural system. A sample application has concerned the seismic vulnerability of simple spherical tanks

  6. Climate Vulnerability Assessments : An Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability, Risk, and Adaptation in Albania’s Power Sector

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2009-01-01

    Energy security is a key concern in Albania, which relies on hydropower for about 90 percent of its electricity production. While renewable energy resources like hydropower play a fundamental role in moving the world towards a low-carbon economy, they are also vulnerable to climatic conditions. Climate variability already affects Albania's energy production to a considerable extent, and cl...

  7. Seismic vulnerability assessment of an Italian historical masonry dry dock

    OpenAIRE

    Marco Zucca; Pietro Giuseppe Crespi; Nicola Longarini

    2017-01-01

    The paper presents the seismic vulnerability analysis of the military dry dock built in 1861 inside the Messina’s harbor. The study appears very important not only for the relevance of the dry dock itself, but also for its social, military and symbolic role. As a first step, the historical documentation about the dry dock delivered by the Military Technical Office, in charge of its maintenance, was thoroughly examined. This activity was fundamental to understand the construction methods, the ...

  8. STRUCTURAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MASONRY BUILDINGS IN TURKEY

    OpenAIRE

    KORKMAZ, Kasım Armagan; CARHOGLU, Asuman Isıl

    2011-01-01

    Turkey is located in an active seismic zone. Mid to high rise R/C building and low rise masonry buildings are very common construction type in Turkey. In recent earthquakes, lots of existing buildings got damage including masonry buildings. Masonry building history in Turkey goes long years back. For sure, it is an important structure type for Turkey. Therefore, earthquake behavior and structural vulnerability of masonry buildings are crucial issues for Turkey as a earthquake prone country. I...

  9. Assessment of floodplain vulnerability during extreme Mississippi River flood 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwell, Allison E; Zhu, Zhenduo; Dutta, Debsunder; Greenberg, Jonathan A; Kumar, Praveen; Garcia, Marcelo H; Rhoads, Bruce L; Holmes, Robert R; Parker, Gary; Berretta, David P; Jacobson, Robert B

    2014-01-01

    Regional change in the variability and magnitude of flooding could be a major consequence of future global climate change. Extreme floods have the capacity to rapidly transform landscapes and expose landscape vulnerabilities through highly variable spatial patterns of inundation, erosion, and deposition. We use the historic activation of the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway during the Mississippi and Ohio River Flooding of 2011 as a scientifically unique stress experiment to analyze indicators of floodplain vulnerability. We use pre- and postflood airborne Light Detection and Ranging data sets to locate erosional and depositional hotspots over the 540 km(2) agricultural Floodway. While riparian vegetation between the river and the main levee breach likely prevented widespread deposition, localized scour and deposition occurred near the levee breaches. Eroded gullies nearly 1 km in length were observed at a low ridge of a relict meander scar of the Mississippi River. Our flow modeling and spatial mapping analysis attributes this vulnerability to a combination of erodible soils, flow acceleration associated with legacy fluvial landforms, and a lack of woody vegetation to anchor soil and enhance flow resistance. Results from this study could guide future mitigation and adaptation measures in cases of extreme flooding.

  10. Assessment of carotid plaque vulnerability using structural and geometrical determinants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Z.Y.; Tang, T.; U-King-Im, J.; Graves, M.; Gillard, J.H.; Sutcliffe, M.

    2008-01-01

    Because many acute cerebral ischemic events are caused by rupture of vulnerable carotid atheroma and subsequent thrombosis, the present study used both idealized and patient-specific carotid atheromatous plaque models to evaluate the effect of structural determinants on stress distributions within plaque. Using a finite element method, structural analysis was performed using models derived from in vivo high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of carotid atheroma in 40 non-consecutive patients (20 symptomatic, 20 asymptomatic). Plaque components were modeled as hyper-elastic materials. The effects of varying fibrous cap thickness, lipid core size and lumen curvature on plaque stress distributions were examined. Lumen curvature and fibrous cap thickness were found to be major determinants of plaque stress. The size of the lipid core did not alter plaque stress significantly when the fibrous cap was relatively thick. The correlation between plaque stress and lumen curvature was significant for both symptomatic (p=0.01; correlation coefficient: 0.689) and asymptomatic patients (p=0.01; correlation coefficient: 0.862). Lumen curvature in plaques of symptomatic patients was significantly larger than those of asymptomatic patients (1.50±1.0 mm -1 vs 1.25±0.75 mm -1 ; p=0.01). Specific plaque morphology (large lumen curvature and thin fibrous cap) is closely related to plaque vulnerability. Structural analysis using high-resolution MRI of carotid atheroma may help in detecting vulnerable atheromatous plaque and aid the risk stratification of patients with carotid disease. (author)

  11. Livelihood Vulnerability Assessment Of Farmers and Nomads in Eastern Ecotone of Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, J.; Zhang, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Livelihood vulnerability assessment provides a scientific basis for anti-poverty of people and regional sustainable development in vulnerable area. Although there are massive discussions on concept of vulnerability, it is still difficult to make it quantitative and to carry out comprehensive appraise. Vulnerability assessments based on sustainable livelihood frame are widely accepted in case studies for attentions to vulnerable groups. However, these case studies are always on regional scale and never reflect how climate change affects people's livelihood and adaptive capability of people. It is necessary to seek vulnerable assessment index system and means based on livelihood process of local people. This paper develops a livelihood vulnerability assessment index system on the basis of sustainable livelihood framework and appraises livelihood vulnerability values of 11 townships, using data of 879 sample households. Livelihood vulnerability assessment index system reflects main risks, livelihood assets and adaptation strategies of local people and government. The results show that livelihood vulnerability level of plateau region is higher than that of mountain to plateau region and mountain gorge region. Manzhang Township in plateau region is the most vulnerable township and nomads there cannot cope with risks of climate change, meadow degeneration and herbs degradation. Upper part of mountain to plateau region and the whole plateau region have high livelihood vulnerability values and local nomads would not cope with risks if no measures are taken by government. The driving forces of livelihood vulnerability include strikes of risks and deficiency of livelihood assets and adaptive capability. Farmers and nomads in high mountain gorge region and lower part of mountain to plateau region can cope with these risks, meanwhile, there are more employment opportunities in second and tertiary industries are needed to help them realize livelihood diversification. Therefore

  12. On the Science-Policy Bridge: Do Spatial Heat Vulnerability Assessment Studies Influence Policy?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanja Wolf

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Human vulnerability to heat varies at a range of spatial scales, especially within cities where there can be noticeable intra-urban differences in heat risk factors. Mapping and visualizing intra-urban heat vulnerability offers opportunities for presenting information to support decision-making. For example the visualization of the spatial variation of heat vulnerability has the potential to enable local governments to identify hot spots of vulnerability and allocate resources and increase assistance to people in areas of greatest need. Recently there has been a proliferation of heat vulnerability mapping studies, all of which, to varying degrees, justify the process of vulnerability mapping in a policy context. However, to date, there has not been a systematic review of the extent to which the results of vulnerability mapping studies have been applied in decision-making. Accordingly we undertook a comprehensive review of 37 recently published papers that use geospatial techniques for assessing human vulnerability to heat. In addition, we conducted an anonymous survey of the lead authors of the 37 papers in order to establish the level of interaction between the researchers as science information producers and local authorities as information users. Both paper review and author survey results show that heat vulnerability mapping has been used in an attempt to communicate policy recommendations, raise awareness and induce institutional networking and learning, but has not as yet had a substantive influence on policymaking or preventive action.

  13. On the Science-Policy Bridge: Do Spatial Heat Vulnerability Assessment Studies Influence Policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Tanja; Chuang, Wen-Ching; McGregor, Glenn

    2015-10-23

    Human vulnerability to heat varies at a range of spatial scales, especially within cities where there can be noticeable intra-urban differences in heat risk factors. Mapping and visualizing intra-urban heat vulnerability offers opportunities for presenting information to support decision-making. For example the visualization of the spatial variation of heat vulnerability has the potential to enable local governments to identify hot spots of vulnerability and allocate resources and increase assistance to people in areas of greatest need. Recently there has been a proliferation of heat vulnerability mapping studies, all of which, to varying degrees, justify the process of vulnerability mapping in a policy context. However, to date, there has not been a systematic review of the extent to which the results of vulnerability mapping studies have been applied in decision-making. Accordingly we undertook a comprehensive review of 37 recently published papers that use geospatial techniques for assessing human vulnerability to heat. In addition, we conducted an anonymous survey of the lead authors of the 37 papers in order to establish the level of interaction between the researchers as science information producers and local authorities as information users. Both paper review and author survey results show that heat vulnerability mapping has been used in an attempt to communicate policy recommendations, raise awareness and induce institutional networking and learning, but has not as yet had a substantive influence on policymaking or preventive action.

  14. Binational climate change vulnerability assessment of migratory birds in the Great Lakes Basins: Tools and impediments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert S Rempel

    Full Text Available Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna, wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina, and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina. We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species.

  15. Climate change vulnerability of native and alien freshwater fishes of California: a systematic assessment approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyle, Peter B; Kiernan, Joseph D; Crain, Patrick K; Quiñones, Rebecca M

    2013-01-01

    Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1) current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction) and (2) likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction). Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California's native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish species. It should be useful for setting conservation

  16. Climate change vulnerability of native and alien freshwater fishes of California: a systematic assessment approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter B Moyle

    Full Text Available Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1 current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction and (2 likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction. Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California's native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (<22°C are particularly likely to go extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish

  17. Underground Economics for Vulnerability Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Allodi, L.

    The estimation of vulnerability risk is at the core of any IT security management strategy. Among technical and infrastructural metrics of risk, attacker economics represent an emerging new aspect that several risk assessment methodologies propose to consider (e.g., based on game theory). Yet the

  18. Modeling and assessment of concrete and the energy infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guthrie, G.; Carey, J.

    1998-01-01

    This is the final report of a two-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Concrete is an essential component of the energy infrastructure. The characteristics of concrete that determine its effectiveness in any application--be it construction (e.g., roads, bridges, dams) or waste isolation--result from the chemical and structural evolution of the particular concrete structure. Geochemical and mineralogical factors are among the most important, yet most overlooked, controls of this evolutionary process. This project is geared at using a combination of advanced geochemical and mineralogical experimentation, characterization, and modeling (much of which was developed to understand geological systems such as Yucca Mountain) to understand the evolution of concrete in a mechanistic way. The goal was to develop a systematic approach to problems ranging from premature degradation of concrete to the design of next-generation concretes

  19. An atmospheric vulnerability assessment framework for environment management and protection based on CAMx.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Li, Yu

    2018-02-01

    This paper presents an atmospheric vulnerability assessment framework based on CAMx that should be helpful to assess potential impacts of changes in human, atmospheric environment, and social economic elements of atmospheric vulnerability. It is also a useful and effective tool that can provide policy-guidance for environmental protection and management to reduce the atmospheric vulnerability. The developed framework was applied to evaluate the atmospheric environment vulnerability of 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region for verification. The results indicated that regional disparity of the atmospheric vulnerability existed in the study site. More specifically, the central and southern regions show more atmospheric environment vulnerability than the northern regions. The impact factors of atmospheric environment vulnerability in the BTH region mainly derived from increasing population press, frequently unfavorable meteorological conditions, extensive economic growth of secondary industry, increased environmental pollution, and accelerating population aging. The framework shown in this paper is an interpretative and heuristic tool for a better understanding of atmospheric vulnerability. This framework can also be replicated at different spatial and temporal scales using context-specific datasets to straightly support environmental managers with decision-making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Assessing social vulnerability in African urban context. The challenge to cope with climate change induced hazards by communities and households

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabisch, Sigrun; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie

    2013-04-01

    Social vulnerability assessment remains central in discourses on global climatic change and takes a more pertinent meaning considering that natural disasters in African countries continue to deeply affect human settlements and destroys human livelihoods. In recent years, in particular large territories and growing cities have experienced severe weather events. Among them are river and flash floods, affecting the social and economic assets of local populations. The impact of the damage related to floods is not only perceptible during seasonal events but also during unexpected larger disasters which place a particular burden on local population and institutions to adapt effectively to increasing climatic pressures. Important features for social vulnerability assessment are the increasing severity of the physical damages, the shortcoming of social and technical infrastructure, the complexity of land management/market, the limited capacity of local institutions and last but not least the restricted capacities of local population to resist these events. Understanding vulnerability implies highlighting and interlinking relevant indicators and/or perceptions encompassed in four main dimensions: social, institutional, physical and attitudinal vulnerability. Case studies in Dar es Salaam, Ouagadougou and Addis Ababa were carried out to obtain insights into the context-related conditions, behavior routines and survival networks in urban areas in west and east Africa. Using a combination of tools (e.g. focus group discussions, transect walks, interviews) we investigated in close cooperation with African partners how households and communities are being prepared to cope with, as well as to recover from floods. A comprehensive process of dealing with floods can be described based on sequential attributes concerning i) Anticipation before a flood occurs, ii) Resistance and coping activities during a flood event and, iii) Recovery and reconstruction afterwards. A participatory

  1. Environmental impact assessment: Classification of ecosystems with respect to vulnerability for radioactive contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blytt, Line Diana

    1999-01-01

    This presentation recommends that an environmental impact assessment should be made ahead of any major action plan in the environment. The final document should point out to the authorities and public that expertise has been systematised in order to predict the effects of an action plan on the environment. This should be done for different scenarios and time scales. A useful tool for an environmental impact assessment is GIS, Geographic Information Systems. It can be used to identify areas and ecosystems that are vulnerable to radioactive contamination. To predict the radiation dose to humans and biota, a vulnerability assessment considers population density, land use, economic resources and the chemical and biological pathways of radionuclides in different ecosystems. Supplemented with knowledge of consumption and dietary habits a vulnerability assessment can be used to identify critical groups and to calculate doses to these groups. For ecosystems, vulnerability can be quantified by using critical loads for radioactive contamination or flux of radionuclides from an area. One criterion for critical load can be that intervention limits for food products should not be exceeded. If the critical load is low, this indicates a high vulnerability. The flux from an area can also identify vulnerability and it can be used to calculate collective dose. The vulnerability approach is a methodology that can be used to select areas that are suitable for treatment, transport and disposal of radioactive waste

  2. A geographical and multi-criteria vulnerability assessment of transportation networks against extreme earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kermanshah, A.; Derrible, S.

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to provide a geographical and multi-criteria vulnerability assessment method to quantify the impacts of extreme earthquakes on road networks. The method is applied to two US cities, Los Angeles and San Francisco, both of which are susceptible to severe seismic activities. Aided by the recent proliferation of data and the wide adoption of Geography Information Systems (GIS), we use a data-driven approach using USGS ShakeMaps to determine vulnerable locations in road networks. To simulate the extreme earthquake, we remove road sections within “very strong” intensities provided by USGS. Subsequently, we measure vulnerability as a percentage drop in four families of metrics: overall properties (length of remaining system); topological indicators (betweenness centrality); accessibility; and travel demand using Longitudinal Employment Household Dynamics (LEHD) data. The various metrics are then plotted on a Vulnerability Surface (VS), from which the area can be assimilated to an overall vulnerability indicator. This VS approach offers a simple and pertinent method to capture the impacts of extreme earthquake. It can also be useful to planners to assess the robustness of various alternative scenarios in their plans to ensure that cities located in seismic areas are better prepared to face severe earthquakes. - Highlights: • Developed geographical and multi-criteria vulnerability assessment method. • Quantify the impacts of extreme earthquakes on transportation networks. • Data-driven approach using USGS ShakeMaps to determine vulnerable locations. • Measure vulnerability as a percentage drop in four families of metrics: ○Overall properties. ○Topological indicators. ○Accessibility. ○Travel demand using Longitudinal Employment Household Dynamics (LEHD) data. • Developed Vulnerability Surface (VS), a new pragmatic vulnerability indicator.

  3. [Vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under sea-level rise].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Li-Fang; Wang, Ning; Ge, Zhen-Ming; Zhang, Li-Quan

    2014-02-01

    To study the response of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on the coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisite for securing coastal ecosystems. In this paper, the possible impacts of sea level rise caused by climate change on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model and IPCC definition on the vulnerability. An indicator system for vulnerability assessment was established, in which sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, habitat elevation, inundation threshold of habitat and sedimentation rate were selected as the key indicators. A quantitatively spatial assessment method based on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability index for the assessment of coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the scenarios of sea-level rise. The vulnerability assessments on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary in 2030 and 2050 were performed under two sea-level rise scenarios (the present sea-level rise trend over recent 30 years and IPCC A1F1 scenario). The results showed that with the projection in 2030 under the present trend of sea-level rise (0.26 cm x a(-1)), 6.6% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.8% and 0.2% of the coastal wetlands were in low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively. With the projection in 2030 under the A1F1 scenario (0.59 cm x a(-1)), 9.0% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.5%, 1.0% and 0.3% of the coastal wetlands were in the low, moderate and high vulnerabilities, respectively.

  4. Earthquake and Physical and Social Vulnerability Assessment for Settlements: Case Study Avcılar District

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Görün ARUN

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Many settled areas in Turkey and across the globe suffer economical and social losses resulting from natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and landslides. In this study, a vulnerability assessment model has been developed for earthquake prone areas in Turkey. The vulnerability assessment model includes ground factors, a building’s physical conditions, building evacuation and social (demographic and socioeconomic aspects of the settlement. The ground vulnerability factor is calculated using factors such as the earthquake zone, soil classification, land sliding and liquefaction threats. The physical vulnerability factor depends on the structural and non-structural threats of the building; the building evacuation vulnerability factor includes the position and structural system of the staircase, the width and natural illumination of the evacuation route, the size and opening of the building exit doors to the street and the distance of the building to the closest open area. The social vulnerability factor considers the age group, gender, family type, education, ownership, income etc of the building users. This vulnerability assessment model is applied to a case study - that of the Avcılar district of Istanbul. Forty different reinforced concrete residential buildings (349 apartments of 1225 people are assessed using the develop checklist. In order to evaluate the checklist and to assess the importance (relevance of vulnerability factors, a questionnaire is forwarded to various related professional groups (architecture, urban planning and civil engineering. The results of the questionnaire are examined using SPSS software with factor analysis. According to the results, most of the samples in the case study area can be classified as high vulnerable.

  5. Assessment of groundwater vulnerability by applying the modified DRASTIC model in Beihai City, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiaoyu; Li, Bin; Ma, Chuanming

    2018-05-01

    This study assesses vulnerability of groundwater to pollution in Beihai City, China, as a support of groundwater resource protection. The assessment result not only objectively reflects potential possibility of groundwater to contamination but also provides scientific basis for the planning and utilization of groundwater resources. This study optimizes the parameters consisting of natural factors and human factors upon the DRASTIC model and modifies the ratings of these parameters, based on the local environmental conditions for the study area. And a weight of each parameter is assigned by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to reduce the subjectivity of humans to vulnerability assessment. The resulting scientific ratings and weights of modified DRASTIC model (AHP-DRASTLE model) contribute to obtain the more realistic assessment of vulnerability of groundwater to contaminant. The comparison analysis validates the accuracy and rationality of the AHP-DRASTLE model and shows it suits the particularity of the study area. The new assessment method (AHP-DRASTLE model) can provide a guide for other scholars to assess the vulnerability of groundwater to contamination. The final vulnerability map for the AHP-DRASTLE model shows four classes: highest (2%), high (29%), low (55%), and lowest (14%). The vulnerability map serves as a guide for decision makers on groundwater resource protection and land use planning at the regional scale and that it is adapted to a specific area.

  6. Increasing Biofuel Deployment and Utilization through Development of Renewable Super Premium: Infrastructure Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moriarty, K.; Kass, M.; Theiss, T.

    2014-11-01

    A high octane fuel and specialized vehicle are under consideration as a market opportunity to meet federal requirements for renewable fuel use and fuel economy. Infrastructure is often cited as a barrier for the introduction of a new fuel. This report assesses infrastructure readiness for E25 (25% ethanol; 75% gasoline) and E25+ (more than 25% ethanol). Both above-ground and below-ground equipment are considered as are the current state of stations, codes and regulations, and materials compatibility.

  7. Vulnerability assessment of medieval civic towers as a tool for retrofitting design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casciati, Sara; Faravelli, Lucia

    2008-01-01

    The seismic vulnerability of an ancient civic bell-tower is studied. Rather than seeing it as an intermediate stage toward a risk analysis, the assessment of vulnerability is here pursued for the purpose of optimizing the retrofit design. The vulnerability curves are drawn by carrying out a single time history analysis of a model calibrated on the basis of experimental data. From the results of this analysis, the medians of three selected performance parameters are estimated, and they are used to compute, for each of them, the probability of exceeding or attaining the three corresponding levels of light, moderate and severe damage. The same numerical model is then used to incorporate the effects of several retrofitting solutions and to re-estimate the associated vulnerability curves. The ultimate goal is to provide a numerical tool able to drive the optimization process of a retrofit design by the comparison of the vulnerability estimates associated with the different retrofitting solutions

  8. Vulnerability assessment of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Li

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Being bordered by the South China Sea and with long coastline, the coastal zone of Guangdong Province is often under severe risk of storm surges, as one of a few regions in China which is seriously threatened by storm surges. This article systematically analyzes the vulnerability factors of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong (from Yangjing to Shanwei. Five vulnerability assessment indicators of hazard-bearing bodies are proposed, which are social economic index, land use index, eco-environmental index, coastal construction index, and disaster-bearing capability index. Then storm surge vulnerability assessment index system in the coastal area of Guangdong is established. Additionally, the international general mode about coastal vulnerability assessment is improved, and the vulnerability evolution model of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong is constructed. Using ArcGIS, the vulnerability zoning map of storm surges in the study region is drawn. Results show that there is the highest degree of storm surge vulnerability in Zhuhai, Panyu, and Taishan; second in Zhongshan, Dongguan, Huiyang, and Haifeng; third in Jiangmen, Shanwei, Yangjiang, and Yangdong; fourth in Baoan, Kaiping, and Enping; and lowest in Guangzhou, Shunde, Shenzhen, and Longgang. This study on the risk of storm surges in these coastal cities can guide the land use of coastal cities in the future, and provide scientific advice for the government to prevent and mitigate the storm surge disasters. It has important theoretical and practical significance.

  9. Vulnerability to air pollution: a building block in assessing vulnerability to multiple stressors

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Matooane, M

    2010-08-30

    Full Text Available security Mental conditions Some practical examples Many people: • dependent on grants •illiterate •jobless •with HIV/AIDS, TB •AIDS orphans •affected by crime and violence •use dirty fuels Many sewage plants don’t function properly... and the overall quality of the assessment Exposure to Air Pollution © CSIR 2009 www.csir.co.za Air pollution PM, SOx, NOx, O3, VOCs,etc. Measured/Modelled Urban development Land use distribution Meteorology Cultural practices...

  10. Vulnerability of schools to floods in Nyando River catchment, Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochola, Samuel O; Eitel, Bernhard; Olago, Daniel O

    2010-07-01

    This paper assesses the vulnerability of schools to floods in the Nyando River catchment (3,600 km(2)) in western Kenya and identifies measures needed to reduce this vulnerability. It surveys 130 schools in the lower reaches, where flooding is a recurrent phenomenon. Of the primary schools assessed, 40% were vulnerable, 48% were marginally vulnerable and 12% were not vulnerable. Of the secondary schools, 8% were vulnerable, 73% were marginally vulnerable and 19% were not vulnerable. Vulnerability to floods is due to a lack of funds, poor building standards, local topography, soil types and inadequate drainage. The Constituencies Development Fund (CDF), established in 2003, provides financial support to cover school construction and reconstruction costs; CDF Committees are expected to adopt school building standards. In an effort to promote safe and resilient construction and retrofitting to withstand floods, this paper presents vulnerability reduction strategies and recommendations for incorporating minimum standards in the on-going Primary School Infrastructure Programme Design.

  11. A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herslund, Lise Byskov; Jalyer, Fatameh; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub- Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability...... in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional...... encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential...

  12. Development and assessment of indices to determine stream fish vulnerability to climate change and habitat alteration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sievert, Nicholas A.; Paukert, Craig P.; Tsang, Yin-Phan; Infante, Dana M.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the future impacts of climate and land use change are critical for long-term biodiversity conservation. We developed and compared two indices to assess the vulnerability of stream fish in Missouri, USA based on species environmental tolerances, rarity, range size, dispersal ability and on the average connectivity of the streams occupied by each species. These two indices differed in how environmental tolerance was classified (i.e., vulnerability to habitat alteration, changes in stream temperature, and changes to flow regimes). Environmental tolerance was classified based on measured species responses to habitat alteration, and extremes in stream temperatures and flow conditions for one index, while environmental tolerance for the second index was based on species’ traits. The indices were compared to determine if vulnerability scores differed by index or state listing status. We also evaluated the spatial distribution of species classified as vulnerable to habitat alteration, changes in stream temperature, and change in flow regimes. Vulnerability scores were calculated for all 133 species with the trait association index, while only 101 species were evaluated using the species response index, because 32 species lacked data to analyze for a response. Scores from the trait association index were greater than the species response index. This is likely due to the species response index's inability to evaluate many rare species, which generally had high vulnerability scores for the trait association index. The indices were consistent in classifying vulnerability to habitat alteration, but varied in their classification of vulnerability due to increases in stream temperature and alterations to flow regimes, likely because extremes in current climate may not fully capture future conditions and their influence on stream fish communities. Both indices showed higher mean vulnerability scores for listed species than unlisted species, which provided a coarse

  13. Assessing Natural Hazard Vulnerability Through Marmara Region Using GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabuncu, A.; Garagon Dogru, A.; Ozener, H.

    2013-12-01

    Natural hazards are natural phenomenon occured in the Earth's system that include geological and meteorological events such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, droughts, fires and tsunamis. The metropolitan cities are vulnerable to natural hazards due to their population densities, industrial facilities and proporties. The urban layout of the megacities are complex since industrial facilities are interference with residential area. The Marmara region is placed in North-western Turkey suffered from natural hazards (earthquakes, floods etc.) for years. After 1999 Kocaeli and Duzce earthquakes and 2009 Istanbul flash floods, dramatic number of casualities and economic losses were reported by the authorities. Geographic information systems (GIS) have substantial capacity in order to develop natural disaster management. As these systems provide more efficient and reliable analysis and evaluation of the data in the management, and also convenient and better solutions for the decision making before during and after the natural hazards. The Earth science data and socio-economic data can be integrated into a GIS as different layers. Additionally, satellite data are used to understand the changes pre and post the natural hazards. GIS is a powerful software for the combination of different type of digital data. A natural hazard database for the Marmara region provides all different types of digital data to the users. All proper data collection processing and analysing are critical to evaluate and identify hazards. The natural hazard database allows users to monitor, analyze and query past and recent disasters in the Marmara Region. The long term aim of this study is to develop geodatabase and identify the natural hazard vulnerabilities of the metropolitan cities.

  14. On the use of IT investment assessment methods in the area of spatial data infrastructure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zwirowicz-Rutkowska Agnieszka

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available One of the important issues concerning development of spatial data infrastructures (SDIs is the carrying out of economic and financial analysis. It is essential to determine expenses and also assess effects resulting from the development and use of infrastructures. Costs and benefits assessment could be associated with assessment of the infrastructure effectiveness and efficiency as well as the infrastructure value, understood as the infrastructure impact on economic aspects of an organisational performance, both of an organisation which realises an SDI project and all users of the infrastructure. The aim of this paper is an overview of various assessment methods of investment as well as an analysis of different types of costs and benefits used for information technology (IT projects. Based on the literature, the analysis of the examples of the use of these methods in the area of spatial data infrastructures is also presented. Furthermore, the issues of SDI projects and investments are outlined. The results of the analysis indicate usefulness of the financial methods from different fields of management in the area of SDI building, development and use. The author proposes, in addition to the financial methods, the adaptation of the various techniques used for IT investments and their development, taking into consideration the SDI specificity for the purpose of assessment of different types of costs and benefits and integration of financial aspects with non-financial ones. Among the challenges are identification and quantification of costs and benefits, as well as establishing measures which would fit the characteristics of the SDI project and artefacts resulting from the project realisation. Moreover, aspects of subjectivity and variability in time should be taken into account as the consequences of definite goals and policies as well as business context of organisation undertaking the project or using its artefacts and also investors.

  15. On the use of IT investment assessment methods in the area of spatial data infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwirowicz-Rutkowska, Agnieszka

    2016-06-01

    One of the important issues concerning development of spatial data infrastructures (SDIs) is the carrying out of economic and financial analysis. It is essential to determine expenses and also assess effects resulting from the development and use of infrastructures. Costs and benefits assessment could be associated with assessment of the infrastructure effectiveness and efficiency as well as the infrastructure value, understood as the infrastructure impact on economic aspects of an organisational performance, both of an organisation which realises an SDI project and all users of the infrastructure. The aim of this paper is an overview of various assessment methods of investment as well as an analysis of different types of costs and benefits used for information technology (IT) projects. Based on the literature, the analysis of the examples of the use of these methods in the area of spatial data infrastructures is also presented. Furthermore, the issues of SDI projects and investments are outlined. The results of the analysis indicate usefulness of the financial methods from different fields of management in the area of SDI building, development and use. The author proposes, in addition to the financial methods, the adaptation of the various techniques used for IT investments and their development, taking into consideration the SDI specificity for the purpose of assessment of different types of costs and benefits and integration of financial aspects with non-financial ones. Among the challenges are identification and quantification of costs and benefits, as well as establishing measures which would fit the characteristics of the SDI project and artefacts resulting from the project realisation. Moreover, aspects of subjectivity and variability in time should be taken into account as the consequences of definite goals and policies as well as business context of organisation undertaking the project or using its artefacts and also investors.

  16. A method proposal for cumulative environmental impact assessment based on the landscape vulnerability evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pavlickova, Katarina; Vyskupova, Monika

    2015-01-01

    Cumulative environmental impact assessment deals with the occasional use in practical application of environmental impact assessment process. The main reasons are the difficulty of cumulative impact identification caused by lack of data, inability to measure the intensity and spatial effect of all types of impacts and the uncertainty of their future evolution. This work presents a method proposal to predict cumulative impacts on the basis of landscape vulnerability evaluation. For this purpose, qualitative assessment of landscape ecological stability is conducted and major vulnerability indicators of environmental and socio-economic receptors are specified and valuated. Potential cumulative impacts and the overall impact significance are predicted quantitatively in modified Argonne multiple matrixes while considering the vulnerability of affected landscape receptors and the significance of impacts identified individually. The method was employed in the concrete environmental impact assessment process conducted in Slovakia. The results obtained in this case study reflect that this methodology is simple to apply, valid for all types of impacts and projects, inexpensive and not time-consuming. The objectivity of the partial methods used in this procedure is improved by quantitative landscape ecological stability evaluation, assignment of weights to vulnerability indicators based on the detailed characteristics of affected factors, and grading impact significance. - Highlights: • This paper suggests a method proposal for cumulative impact prediction. • The method includes landscape vulnerability evaluation. • The vulnerability of affected receptors is determined by their sensitivity. • This method can increase the objectivity of impact prediction in the EIA process

  17. Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of a Shallow Two-Story Underground RC Box Structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jungwon Huh

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Tunnels, culverts, and subway stations are the main parts of an integrated infrastructure system. Most of them are constructed by the cut-and-cover method at shallow depths (mainly lower than 30 m of soil deposits, where large-scale seismic ground deformation can occur with lower stiffness and strength of the soil. Therefore, the transverse racking deformation (one of the major seismic ground deformation due to soil shear deformations should be included in the seismic design of underground structures using cost- and time-efficient methods that can achieve robustness of design and are easily understood by engineers. This paper aims to develop a simplified but comprehensive approach relating to vulnerability assessment in the form of fragility curves on a shallow two-story reinforced concrete underground box structure constructed in a highly-weathered soil. In addition, a comparison of the results of earthquakes per peak ground acceleration (PGA is conducted to determine the effective and appropriate number for cost- and time-benefit analysis. The ground response acceleration method for buried structures (GRAMBS is used to analyze the behavior of the structure subjected to transverse seismic loading under quasi-static conditions. Furthermore, the damage states that indicate the exceedance level of the structural strength capacity are described by the results of nonlinear static analyses (or so-called pushover analyses. The Latin hypercube sampling technique is employed to consider the uncertainties associated with the material properties and concrete cover owing to the variation in construction conditions. Finally, a large number of artificial ground shakings satisfying the design spectrum are generated in order to develop the seismic fragility curves based on the defined damage states. It is worth noting that the number of ground motions per PGA, which is equal to or larger than 20, is a reasonable value to perform a structural analysis that

  18. Assessing the social sustainability contribution of an infrastructure project under conditions of uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sierra, Leonardo A.; Yepes, Víctor; Pellicer, Eugenio

    2017-01-01

    Assessing the viability of a public infrastructure includes economic, technical and environmental aspects; however, on many occasions, the social aspects are not always adequately considered. This article proposes a procedure to estimate the social sustainability of infrastructure projects under conditions of uncertainty, based on a multicriteria deterministic method. The variability of the method inputs is contributed by the decision-makers. Uncertain inputs are treated through uniform and beta PERT distributions. The Monte Carlo method is used to propagate uncertainty in the method. A case study of a road infrastructure improvement in El Salvador is used to illustrate this treatment. The main results determine the variability of the short and long-term social improvement indices by infrastructure and the probability of the position in the prioritization of the alternatives. The proposed mechanism improves the reliability of the decision making early in infrastructure projects, taking their social contribution into account. The results can complement environmental and economic sustainability assessments. - Highlights: •Estimate the social sustainability of infrastructure projects under conditions of uncertainty •The method uses multicriteria and Monte Carlo techniques and beta PERT distributions •Determines variability of the short and long term social improvement •Determines probability in the prioritization of alternatives •Improves reliability of decision making considering the social contribution

  19. Department of Energy Plutonium ES ampersand H Vulnerability Assessment Savannah River Site interim compensatory measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bickford, W.E.

    1994-01-01

    The Savannah River Site (SRS) has recently completed a self-assessment of potential vulnerabilities associated with plutonium and other transuranic materials stored at the site. An independent Working Group Assessment Team (WGAT) appointed by DOE/ES ampersand H also performed an independent assessment, and reviewed and validated the site self-assessment. The purpose of this report is to provide a status of interim compensatory measures at SRS to address hazards in advance of any corrective actions. ES ampersand H has requested this status for all vulnerabilities ranked medium or higher with respect to potential consequences to workers, environment, and the public

  20. Vulnerability assessment to frost disaster in dieng volcanic highland using spatial multi-criteria evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradana, A.; Rahmanu, Y. A.; Prabaningrum, I.; Nurafifa, I.; Hizbaron, D. R.

    2018-04-01

    Dieng Volcanic Highland is one of frost disaster prone area which is very unique phenomenon in tropical region. Frost indicated by appearance of frozen dew or ice layer on the ground or vegetation surface due air inversion and cold temperatures during midnight in dry season. Appearance of frost significantly causes plant damage and losses on agricultural land, while the impacts were strongly influenced by level of vulnerability within agricultural communities. This study aims to analyze the impact of frost on agricultural land in Dieng, to identify characteristics of physical, social, economic vulnerability and coping capacity of agricultural communities to frost disaster in Dieng, and to estimate total vulnerability of frost disasters in Dieng through SMCE scenario. Research was conducted in Dieng Village, Wonosobo and Dieng Kulon Village, Banjarnegara. Method to assess vulnerability level is performed by Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation (SMCE) method using ILWIS software through a combination of physical, social, and economic vulnerability regarding frost hazard, as well as coping capacity of farmers. Data collected by interview within different agricultural plots using questionnaire and in-depth interview method on frost affected agricultural land. Impact of frost mostly causes damage on potato agricultural land than any other types of commodities, such as carrot, leek or cabbage. Losses varies in range of 0 million to 55 million rupiah, at most events in range of 10 million to 15 million rupiah during frost season on July-August-September. Main factors determining vulnerability comes from crop losses, preparedness effort, and type of commodity. Agricultural land dominated by high level physical vulnerability (95.37 percent), high level social vulnerability (70.79 percent), moderate level economic vulnerability (79.23 percent) and moderate level coping capacity (73.18 percent). All five scenarios indicated that level of total vulnerability vary only from

  1. Infrastructure assessment for disaster management using multi-sensor and multi-temporal remote sensing imagery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Butenuth, Matthias; Frey, Daniel; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, a new assessment system is presented to evaluate infrastructure objects such as roads after natural disasters in near-realtime. A particular aim is the exploitation of multi-sensorial and multi-temporal imagery together with further {GIS-}data in a comprehensive assessment framewor...

  2. Assessment Systems and Data Management in Colleges of Education: An Examination of Systems and Infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haughton, Noela A.; Keil, Virginia L.

    2009-01-01

    The College of Education Assessment Infrastructure Survey was developed and administered to 1011 institutions over a twelve-month period ending April 2007. The survey examined the capacity of university-based teacher preparation programs to respond to the growing and increasingly complex data management requirements that accompanies assessment and…

  3. Designing a graph-based approach to landscape ecological assessment of linear infrastructures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Girardet, Xavier, E-mail: xavier.girardet@univ-fcomte.fr; Foltête, Jean-Christophe, E-mail: jean-christophe.foltete@univ-fcomte.fr; Clauzel, Céline, E-mail: celine.clauzel@univ-fcomte.fr

    2013-09-15

    The development of major linear infrastructures contributes to landscape fragmentation and impacts natural habitats and biodiversity in various ways. To anticipate and minimize such impacts, landscape planning needs to be capable of effective strategic environmental assessment (SEA) and of supporting environmental impact assessment (EIA) decisions. To this end, species distribution models (SDMs) are an effective way of making predictive maps of the presence of a given species. In this paper, we propose to combine SDMs and graph-based representation of landscape networks to integrate the potential long-distance effect of infrastructures on species distribution. A diachronic approach, comparing distribution before and after the linear infrastructure is constructed, leads to the design of a species distribution assessment (SDA), taking into account population isolation. The SDA makes it possible (1) to estimate the local variation in probability of presence and (2) to characterize the impact of the infrastructure in terms of global variation in presence and of distance of disturbance. The method is illustrated by assessing the impact of the construction of a high-speed railway line on the distribution of several virtual species in Franche-Comté (France). The study shows the capacity of the SDA to characterize the impact of a linear infrastructure either as a research concern or as a spatial planning challenge. SDAs could be helpful in deciding among several scenarios for linear infrastructure routes or for the location of mitigation measures. -- Highlights: • Graph connectivity metrics were integrated into a species distribution model. • SDM was performed before and after the implementation of linear infrastructure. • The local variation of presence provides spatial indicators of the impact.

  4. Designing a graph-based approach to landscape ecological assessment of linear infrastructures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Girardet, Xavier; Foltête, Jean-Christophe; Clauzel, Céline

    2013-01-01

    The development of major linear infrastructures contributes to landscape fragmentation and impacts natural habitats and biodiversity in various ways. To anticipate and minimize such impacts, landscape planning needs to be capable of effective strategic environmental assessment (SEA) and of supporting environmental impact assessment (EIA) decisions. To this end, species distribution models (SDMs) are an effective way of making predictive maps of the presence of a given species. In this paper, we propose to combine SDMs and graph-based representation of landscape networks to integrate the potential long-distance effect of infrastructures on species distribution. A diachronic approach, comparing distribution before and after the linear infrastructure is constructed, leads to the design of a species distribution assessment (SDA), taking into account population isolation. The SDA makes it possible (1) to estimate the local variation in probability of presence and (2) to characterize the impact of the infrastructure in terms of global variation in presence and of distance of disturbance. The method is illustrated by assessing the impact of the construction of a high-speed railway line on the distribution of several virtual species in Franche-Comté (France). The study shows the capacity of the SDA to characterize the impact of a linear infrastructure either as a research concern or as a spatial planning challenge. SDAs could be helpful in deciding among several scenarios for linear infrastructure routes or for the location of mitigation measures. -- Highlights: • Graph connectivity metrics were integrated into a species distribution model. • SDM was performed before and after the implementation of linear infrastructure. • The local variation of presence provides spatial indicators of the impact

  5. Development and implementation of a Bayesian-based aquifer vulnerability assessment in Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arthur, J.D.; Wood, H.A.R.; Baker, A.E.; Cichon, J.R.; Raines, G.L.

    2007-01-01

    The Florida Aquifer Vulnerability Assessment (FAVA) was designed to provide a tool for environmental, regulatory, resource management, and planning professionals to facilitate protection of groundwater resources from surface sources of contamination. The FAVA project implements weights-of-evidence (WofE), a data-driven, Bayesian-probabilistic model to generate a series of maps reflecting relative aquifer vulnerability of Florida's principal aquifer systems. The vulnerability assessment process, from project design to map implementation is described herein in reference to the Floridan aquifer system (FAS). The WofE model calculates weighted relationships between hydrogeologic data layers that influence aquifer vulnerability and ambient groundwater parameters in wells that reflect relative degrees of vulnerability. Statewide model input data layers (evidential themes) include soil hydraulic conductivity, density of karst features, thickness of aquifer confinement, and hydraulic head difference between the FAS and the watertable. Wells with median dissolved nitrogen concentrations exceeding statistically established thresholds serve as training points in the WofE model. The resulting vulnerability map (response theme) reflects classified posterior probabilities based on spatial relationships between the evidential themes and training points. The response theme is subjected to extensive sensitivity and validation testing. Among the model validation techniques is calculation of a response theme based on a different water-quality indicator of relative recharge or vulnerability: dissolved oxygen. Successful implementation of the FAVA maps was facilitated by the overall project design, which included a needs assessment and iterative technical advisory committee input and review. Ongoing programs to protect Florida's springsheds have led to development of larger-scale WofE-based vulnerability assessments. Additional applications of the maps include land-use planning

  6. Data Quality Objectives Workbook for Assessing Chemical Vulnerability Potential in REDOX and U Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauer, R. G.

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this data quality objective workbook is to present the rationale for selecting the sampling and characterization strategy that supports the assessment of the chemical vulnerabilities of the five tanks. Since characterization of the tanks' contents is likely to be expensive, a secondary goal was established to characterize the tank contents for proper waste designation and disposal at the same time the tanks are characterized for chemical vulnerability

  7. Sensitivity Analysis of DRASTIC Model in Vulnerability Assessment of Shahrood Alluvial Aquifer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shadi Abolhasan Almasi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater vulnerability assessment is typically accomplished as a management tool to protect groundwater resources. In this research, the DRASTIC model which is an empirical one used for evaluating the potential of an aquifer for pollution was employed to evaluate the vulnerability of Shahrood alluvial aquifer. Moreover, the sensitivity of the model paramneters was assessed to identify the ones with greatest effect on vulnerability. The model layers including depth to groundwater table level, recharge, aquifer media, topography, impact of unsaturated zone, and hydraulic conductivity were prepared and classified in the ArcGIS software based on analyses of both the available data and the layer of surface soil texture using Aster satellite images. Once the vulnerability index was calculated, the sensitivity map of Shahroud aquifer vulnerability was analyzed using the two parameter removal and single parameter sensitivity methods. These were further verified by textural analysis of soil samples from different parts of the region. The layers with appropriate weights were overlaid and the DRASTIC index of the aquifer was estimated at 28 to 148. The highest vulnerability was detected in the northern margins and southwestern parts of the aquifer while other parts were characterized by medium to low vulnerability. The low nitrogen concentration observed in the farm areas and its rise to 45 mg/l in the northern stretches of the aquifer bear witness to the accuracy of the zoning rendered by the DRASTIC model. Based on the vulnerability map of Sharoud aquifer, it was found that 1.6% of the aquifer’s area has a very high vulnerability or potential for pollution followed by 10%, 28.8%, and 18.9% of the area were identified as having high, medium and low potentials for pollution, respecytively. The remaining (i.e., 40.5% was found to have no risk of pollution.

  8. The role of assessment infrastructures in crafting project-based science classrooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Amico, Laura Marie

    In project-based science teaching, teachers engage students in the practice of conducting meaningful investigations and explanations of natural phenomena, often in collaboration with fellow students or adults. Reformers suggest that this approach can provide students with more profitable learning experiences; but for many teachers, a shift to such instruction can be difficult to manage. As some reform-minded teachers have discovered, classroom assessment can serve as a vital tool for meeting the challenges associated with project science activity. In this research, classroom assessment was viewed as an infrastructure that both students and teachers rely upon as a mediational tool for classroom activity and communications. The study explored the classroom assessment infrastructures created by three teachers involved in the Learning through Collaborative Visualization (CoVis) Project from 1993--94 to 1995--96. Each of the three teachers under study either created a new course or radically reformulated an old one in an effort to incorporate project-based science pedagogy and supporting technologies. Data in the form of interviews, classroom observations, surveys, student work, and teacher records was collected. From these data, an interpretive case study was developed for each course and its accompanying assessment infrastructure. A set of cross-case analyses was also constructed, based upon common themes that emerged from all three cases. These themes included: the assessment challenges based on the nature of project activity, the role of technology in the teachers' assessment infrastructure designs, and the influence of the wider assessment infrastructure on their course and assessment designs. In combination, the case studies and cross-case analyses describe the synergistic relationship between the design of pedagogical reforms and classroom assessment infrastructures, as well as the effectiveness of all three assessment designs. This work contributes to research

  9. Assessment of vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

    2011-07-01

    There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years.

  10. Vulnerability assessment of urban ecosystems driven by water resources, human health and atmospheric environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Jing; Lu, Hongwei; Zhang, Yang; Song, Xinshuang; He, Li

    2016-05-01

    As ecosystem management is a hotspot and urgent topic with increasing population growth and resource depletion. This paper develops an urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment method representing a new vulnerability paradigm for decision makers and environmental managers, as it's an early warning system to identify and prioritize the undesirable environmental changes in terms of natural, human, economic and social elements. The whole idea is to decompose a complex problem into sub-problem, and analyze each sub-problem, and then aggregate all sub-problems to solve this problem. This method integrates spatial context of Geographic Information System (GIS) tool, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method, ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators, and socio-economic elements. Decision makers can find out relevant urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment results with different vulnerable attitude. To test the potential of the vulnerability methodology, it has been applied to a case study area in Beijing, China, where it proved to be reliable and consistent with the Beijing City Master Plan. The results of urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment can support decision makers in evaluating the necessary of taking specific measures to preserve the quality of human health and environmental stressors for a city or multiple cities, with identifying the implications and consequences of their decisions.

  11. Risk assessment for construction projects of transport infrastructure objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titarenko, Boris

    2017-10-01

    The paper analyzes and compares different methods of risk assessment for construction projects of transport objects. The management of such type of projects demands application of special probabilistic methods due to large level of uncertainty of their implementation. Risk management in the projects requires the use of probabilistic and statistical methods. The aim of the work is to develop a methodology for using traditional methods in combination with robust methods that allow obtaining reliable risk assessments in projects. The robust approach is based on the principle of maximum likelihood and in assessing the risk allows the researcher to obtain reliable results in situations of great uncertainty. The application of robust procedures allows to carry out a quantitative assessment of the main risk indicators of projects when solving the tasks of managing innovation-investment projects. Calculation of damage from the onset of a risky event is possible by any competent specialist. And an assessment of the probability of occurrence of a risky event requires the involvement of special probabilistic methods based on the proposed robust approaches. Practice shows the effectiveness and reliability of results. The methodology developed in the article can be used to create information technologies and their application in automated control systems for complex projects.

  12. Systematic analysis of natural hazards along infrastructure networks using a GIS-tool for risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baruffini, Mirko

    2010-05-01

    Due to the topographical conditions in Switzerland, the highways and the railway lines are frequently exposed to natural hazards as rockfalls, debris flows, landslides, avalanches and others. With the rising incidence of those natural hazards, protection measures become an important political issue. However, they are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. Furthermore risks are distributed in space and time. Consequently, important decision problems to the public sector decision makers are derived. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Efficient protection alternatives can be obtained consequently considering the concept of integral risk management. Risk analysis, as the central part of risk management, has become gradually a generally accepted approach for the assessment of current and future scenarios (Loat & Zimmermann 2004). The procedure aims at risk reduction which can be reached by conventional mitigation on one hand and the implementation of land-use planning on the other hand: a combination of active and passive mitigation measures is applied to prevent damage to buildings, people and infrastructures. With a Geographical Information System adapted to run with a tool developed to manage Risk analysis it is possible to survey the data in time and space, obtaining an important system for managing natural risks. As a framework, we adopt the Swiss system for risk analysis of gravitational natural hazards (BUWAL 1999). It offers a complete framework for the analysis and assessment of risks due to natural hazards, ranging from hazard assessment for gravitational natural hazards, such as landslides, collapses, rockfalls, floodings, debris flows and avalanches, to vulnerability assessment and risk analysis, and the integration into land use planning at the cantonal and municipality level. The scheme is limited to the direct consequences of natural hazards. Thus, we develop a

  13. Vulnerability assessment of the Toluca Valley aquifer combining a parametric approach and advective transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gárfias, J.; Llanos, H.; Franco, R.; Martel, R.

    2017-01-01

    Groundwater vulnerability assessment is an important task in water resources and land management. Depending on the availability of data and the complexity of the hydrogeological conditions, different approaches can be adopted. As an alternative, this study involves the use of a combined approach based on vulnerability methods and advective particle tracking to better understand the susceptibility to contamination in the Toluca valley aquifer. An intrinsic vulnerability map (DRASTIC) was used to identify areas that are more susceptible to ground water contamination. To estimate advective particle tracking, we developed a 3D flow model using VisualModflow and MODPATH to describe the regional flow of groundwater. The vulnerability map demonstrates the problematic application and interpretation of qualitative the vulnerability method of the parametric system group, which indicates a difference of approximately 23% when compared with the modified vulnerability map. Potential contamination sources based on landfill sites were comparatively high; approximately 76% are located in areas that could be susceptible to contamination through vertical infiltration, especially those that are located along the Lerma system of wells. Industrial parks located in the centre of the valley (83%), where continuous extraction of groundwater and land subsidence occurs, have been classified as high vulnerability zones, increasing the risk of contaminants from surface sources reaching the groundwater. In order to understand the susceptibility to contamination in the aquifer, various delineation approaches should be adopted and all the results that validate each other should be considered, thus making a good strategy for implementing different degrees of protection measures. [es

  14. Assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability to groundwater contamination in lahore, pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmood, K.; Khan, R.M.; Ashfaq, M.; Ahsan, A.

    2015-01-01

    This study was intended to map intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater contamination in Lahore using GIS based DRASTIC model. The final output of DRASTIC model was reclassified into three equal interval classes, corresponding to low, moderate and high vulnerability regions. Most of the study area was found to have low to moderate vulnerability, with 27.48% area of low, 66.48% of moderate and only 6.04% area of high vulnerability. Most of the drinking water wells are installed in the residential area of the city, which shows low chances of contamination due to deep water table and almost no recharge. However, an industrial drain is located in the high vulnerable area in the southeastern part of the study area. The previous studies are in agreement with vulnerability zones. Further to remove any doubt in the suitability of assigned weight, map removal sensitivity analysis had been carried out. The assessment of the sensitivity analysis had been made through visual as well as quantitative methods. Priority order for contribution of the parameters in the vulnerability for the study area is D>I>C>R>A>T>S. (author)

  15. Vulnerability assessments, identity and spatial scale challenges in disaster-risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward R. Carr

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Current approaches to vulnerability assessment for disaster-risk reduction (DRR commonly apply generalised, a priori determinants of vulnerability to particular hazards in particular places. Although they may allow for policy-level legibility at high levels of spatial scale, these approaches suffer from attribution problems that become more acute as the level of analysis is localised and the population under investigation experiences greater vulnerability. In this article, we locate the source of this problem in a spatial scale mismatch between the essentialist framings of identity behind these generalised determinants of vulnerability and the intersectional, situational character of identity in the places where DRR interventions are designed and implemented. Using the Livelihoods as Intimate Government (LIG approach to identify and understand different vulnerabilities to flooding in a community in southern Zambia, we empirically demonstrate how essentialist framings of identity produce this mismatch. Further, we illustrate a means of operationalising intersectional, situational framings of identity to achieve greater and more productive understandings of hazard vulnerability than available through the application of general determinants of vulnerability to specific places and cases.

  16. Mapping eco-environmental vulnerability patterns: An assessment framework based on remote sensing, GIS, and AHP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anh, N. K.; Liou, Y. A.; Li, M. H.

    2016-12-01

    The motivation for this study is assessment of the eco-environment vulnerability based on four independent determinants: hydro-meteorology, topography, land resources, and human activities. An assessment framework is proposed to assess the vulnerable eco-environment by using 16 variables with 6 of them constructed from Landsat 8 satellite images. The remaining variables were extracted from digital maps. Each variable was evaluated and spatially mapped with the aid of an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and geographical information system (GIS). The Thua Thien - Hue Province that has been experiencing natural disasters and urbanization in the recent decades is selected as our study area. An eco-environmental vulnerability map is assorted into six vulnerable levels consisting of potential, slight, light, medium, heavy, and very heavy vulnerabilities, representing 14%, 27%, 17%, 26%, 13%, 3% of the study area, respectively. It is found that heavy and very heavy vulnerable areas appear mainly in the low and medium lands with high intensification of social-economic activities and often suffer from flooding. Tiny percentages of medium and heavy vulnerable levels occur in high land areas probably caused by agricultural practices in highlands, slash and burn cultivation and removal of natural forests with new plantation forests and these regions are usually influenced by landslides, flash flooding. Based on our results, three ecological zones requiring different development and protection solutions are proposed to restore local eco-environment toward sustainable development. Our findings support the idea that eco-environmental vulnerability is driven by anthropogenic processes and enhanced by natural disaster in the Thua Thien-Hue Province.

  17. Network Vulnerability Assessment of the U.S. Crude Pipeline Infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    pipeline will connect the COTH to receive Canadian oil and continue through Oklahoma to terminals in Nederland , Texas to serve the Port Arthur...route through Steele City, Kansas down to the COTH via the Keystone Cushing Expansion, and again down to Nederland , Texas to serve the Port Arthur...Canada through the COTH and down to Nederland , Texas will improve the resiliency of the network and reduce the risk associated with a Black Swan event

  18. Doctrinal Guidelines for Quantitative Vulnerability Assessments of Infrastructure-Related Risks. Volume I

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    or a tourist attraction—or may focus on a specific event—e.g., Fourth of July fireworks and outdoor concert, a popular indoor or outdoor sporting...Getting Started. Virginia: Defense Threat Reduction Agency. Velleman, Paul and Leland Wilkinson. 1993. “Nominal, Ordinal, Interval, and Ratio Typologies

  19. Applying the Msharpp Method in Risk Assessment for the Water Supply Critical Infrastructure Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badea Dorel

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper highlights a manner to assess risks for an important sector of critical infrastructure, that of water supply, frequently regulated in international legal systems. We took into consideration the fact that risk is a problem related to the processes of decision making under conditions of uncertainty in most cases, so that by this approach we bring to the attention of critical infrastructure managers, drawing on their experience, a simple method that can be considered in a preliminary stage of risk assessment specific to water supply.

  20. A support system for assessing local vulnerability to weather and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coletti, Alex; Howe, Peter D.; Yarnal, Brent; Wood, Nathan J.

    2013-01-01

    The changing number and nature of weather- and climate-related natural hazards is causing more communities to need to assess their vulnerabilities. Vulnerability assessments, however, often require considerable expertise and resources that are not available or too expensive for many communities. To meet the need for an easy-to-use, cost-effective vulnerability assessment tool for communities, a prototype online vulnerability assessment support system was built and tested. This prototype tool guides users through a stakeholder-based vulnerability assessment that breaks the process into four easy-to-implement steps. Data sources are integrated in the online environment so that perceived risks—defined and prioritized qualitatively by users—can be compared and discussed against the impacts that past events have had on the community. The support system is limited in scope, and the locations of the case studies do not provide a sufficiently broad range of sample cases. The addition of more publically available hazard databases combined with future improvements in the support system architecture and software will expand opportunities for testing and fully implementing the support system.

  1. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF ORDERED WEIGHTED AVERAGING OPERATOR IN EARTHQUAKE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Moradi

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this research is to find the extent to which the minimal variability Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA model of seismic vulnerability assessment is sensitive to variation of optimism degree. There are a variety of models proposed for seismic vulnerability assessment. In order to examine the efficiency of seismic vulnerability assessment models, the stability of results could be analysed. Seismic vulnerability assessment is done to estimate the probable losses in the future earthquake. Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM methods have been applied by a number of researchers to estimate the human, physical and financial losses in urban areas. The study area of this research is Tehran Metropolitan Area (TMA which has more than eight million inhabitants. In addition, this paper assumes that North Tehran Fault (NTF is activated and caused an earthquake in TMA. 1996 census data is used to extract the attribute values for six effective criteria in seismic vulnerability assessment. The results demonstrate that minimal variability OWA model of Seismic Loss Estimation (SLE is more stable where the aggregated seismic vulnerability degree has a lower value. Moreover, minimal variability OWA is very sensitive to optimism degree in northern areas of Tehran. A number of statistical units in southern areas of the city also indicate considerable sensitivity to optimism degree due to numerous non-standard buildings. In addition, the change of seismic vulnerability degree caused by variation of optimism degree does not exceed 25 % of the original value which means that the overall accuracy of the model is acceptable.

  2. An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

    2016-11-11

    Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

  3. Spatial-temporal eco-environmental vulnerability assessment and its influential factors based on Landsat data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anh, N. K.; Liou, Y. A.; Ming-Hsu, L.

    2016-12-01

    Regional land use/land cover (LULC) changes lead to various changes in ecological processes and, in turn, alter regional micro-climate. To understand eco-environmental responses to LULC changes, eco-environmental evaluation is thus required with aims to identify vulnerable regions and influential factors, so that practical measures for environmental protection and management may be proposed. The Thua Thien - Hue Province has been experiencing urbanization at a rapid rate in both population and physical size. The urban land, agricultural land, and aquaculture activities have been invasively into natural space and caused eco-environment deterioration by land desertification, soil erosion, shrinking forest resources,…etc. In this study, an assessment framework that is composed by 11 variables with 9 of them constructed from Landsat time series is proposed to serve as basis to examine eco-environmental vulnerability in the Thua Thien - Hue Province in years 1989, 2003, and 2014. An eco-environmental vulnerability map is assorted into six vulnerability levels consisting of potential, slight, light, medium, heavy, and very heavy vulnerabilities. Result shows that there is an increasing trend in eco-environmental vulnerability in general with expected evolving distributions in heavy and very heavy vulnerability levels, which mainly lying on developed land, bare land, semi bare land, agricultural land, and poor and recovery forests. In contrast, there is a significant decline in potential vulnerability level. The contributing factors of an upward trend in medium, heavy, and very heavy levels include: (i) a large natural forest converted to plantation forest and agriculture land; and (ii) significant expansion of developed land leading to difference in thermal signatures in urban areas as compared with those of the surrounding areas. It is concluded that anthropogenic processes with transformation on LULC has amplified the vulnerability of eco-environment in the study

  4. [Integrated assessment of eco-environmental vulnerability in Pearl River Delta based on RS and GIS].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Qing-Yong; Huang, Mei; Liu, Hong-Sheng; Yan, Hui-Min

    2011-11-01

    Based on the remote sensing data and with the help of geographic information system, an integrated assessment was conducted on the eco-environmental vulnerability of Pearl River Delta in 2004-2008. Spatial principal component analysis was used to generate the evaluation indicators, and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to determine the weights of the evaluation factors. The reasons causing the vulnerability of the eco- environment in Pearl River Delta were discussed. In the study area, its middle part was the most vulnerable region, occupying 34.0% of the total, eastern part was the moderately vulnerable region, accounting for 25.5%, and western part was the lightly and slightly vulnerable areas, accounting for 28.7 and 11.8%, respectively. Totally, the moderately and lightly vulnerable areas occupied 54.2%, indicating that a majority of the Delta was under moderate and light vulnerability. The natural factors affecting the eco-environmental vulnerability of the Delta were altitude, heavy rain days, water and soil erosion rate, flooded infield rate, normalized difference vegetation index (ND VI) and landscape diversity index, whereas the human factors were population density, waste discharge per unit area, exhaust emission per unit area, land use change, chemical fertilization intensity, pesticide application intensity, amount of motor vehicles possessed by ten thousands people, and index of environmental protection investment. The main characteristics of the extremely and heavily vulnerable regions were low altitude, high frequency of flood disaster, large flooded infield, serious vegetation degradation, high pollution level and low environment protection investment index.

  5. Geospatial approach for assessment of biophysical vulnerability to agricultural drought and its intra-seasonal variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sehgal, Vinay Kumar; Dhakar, Rajkumar

    2016-03-01

    The study presents a methodology to assess and map agricultural drought vulnerability during main kharif crop season at local scale and compare its intra-seasonal variations. A conceptual model of vulnerability based on variables of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity was adopted, and spatial datasets of key biophysical factors contributing to vulnerability were generated using remote sensing and GIS for Rajasthan State of India. Hazard exposure was based on frequency and intensity of gridded standardized precipitation index (SPI). Agricultural sensitivity was based on soil water holding capacity as well as on frequency and intensity of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)-derived trend adjusted vegetation condition index (VCITadj). Percent irrigated area was used as a measure of adaptive capacity. Agricultural drought vulnerability was derived separately for early, mid, late, and whole kharif seasons by composting rating of factors using linear weighting scheme and pairwise comparison of multi-criteria evaluation. The regions showing very low to extreme rating of hazard exposure, drought sensitivity, and agricultural vulnerability were identified at all four time scales. The results indicate that high to extreme vulnerability occurs in more than 50% of net sown area in the state and such areas mostly occur in western, central, and southern parts. The higher vulnerability is on account of non-irrigated croplands, moderate to low water holding capacity of sandy soils, resulting in higher sensitivity, and located in regions with high probability of rainfall deficiency. The mid and late season vulnerability has been found to be much higher than that during early and whole season. Significant correlation of vulnerability rating with food grain productivity, drought recurrence period, crop area damaged in year 2009 and socioeconomic indicator of human development index (HDI) proves the general soundness of methodology. Replication of this methodology

  6. Spatial vulnerability assessment : methodology for the community and district level applied to floods in Buzi, Mozambique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kienberger, S.

    2010-01-01

    Within this thesis a conceptual model is presented which allows for the definition of a vulnerability assessment according to its time and spatial scale and within a multi-dimensional framework, which should help to design and develop appropriate methodologies and adaptation of concepts for the required scale of implementation. Building on past experiences with participatory approaches in community mapping in the District of Buzi in Mozambique, the relevance of such approaches for a community-based disaster risk reduction framework is analysed. Finally, methodologies are introduced which allow the assessment of vulnerability and the prioritisation of vulnerability factors at the community level. At the district level, homogenous vulnerability regions are identified through the application of integrated modelling approaches which build on expert knowledge and weightings. A set of indicators is proposed, which allow the modelling of vulnerability in a data-scarce environment. In developing these different methodologies for the community and district levels, it has been identified that the monitoring of vulnerability and the identification of trends is essential to addressing the objective of a continuous and improved disaster risk management. In addition to the technical and methodological challenges discussed in this thesis, the commitment from different stakeholders and the availability of capacity in different domains is essential for the successful, practical implementation of the developed approaches. (author)

  7. Methodology to assess coastal infrastructure resilience to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roca Marta

    2016-01-01

    In order to improve the resilience of the line, several options have been considered to evaluate and reduce climate change impacts to the railway. This paper describes the methodological approach developed to evaluate the risks of flooding for a range of scenarios in the estuary and open coast reaches of the line. Components to derive the present day and future climate change coastal conditions including some possible adaptation measures are also presented together with the results of the hindcasting analysis to assess the performance of the modelling system. An overview of the modelling results obtained to support the development of a long-term Resilience Strategy for asset management is also discussed.

  8. Wing Infrastructure and Development Outlook (WINDO) Final Environmental Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-06-01

    combustion) 2/27/95a 8/97 Pulp & Paper (non- comb .) 10/29/95a 5/97 Secondary Aluminum Prod. 4/97 11/97 Steel Pickling-HC1 Process 2/97 12/97 Wool ...DOE Department of Energy EA Environmental Assessment ECR Electronic Combat Range EIAP Environmental Impact Analysis Process EIS Environmental...of 2005 to 2006), Nellis AFB would ensure that these goals are not only achieved, but also maximized. The WINDO environment impact analysis process

  9. Enhancement of global flood damage assessments using building material based vulnerability curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Englhardt, Johanna; de Ruiter, Marleen; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-04-01

    This study discusses the development of an enhanced approach for flood damage and risk assessments using vulnerability curves that are based on building material information. The approach draws upon common practices in earthquake vulnerability assessments, and is an alternative for land-use or building occupancy approach in flood risk assessment models. The approach is of particular importance for studies where there is a large variation in building material, such as large scale studies or studies in developing countries. A case study of Ethiopia is used to demonstrate the impact of the different methodological approaches on direct damage assessments due to flooding. Generally, flood damage assessments use damage curves for different land-use or occupancy types (i.e. urban or residential and commercial classes). However, these categories do not necessarily relate directly to vulnerability of damage by flood waters. For this, the construction type and building material may be more important, as is used in earthquake risk assessments. For this study, we use building material classification data of the PAGER1 project to define new building material based vulnerability classes for flood damage. This approach will be compared to the widely applied land-use based vulnerability curves such as used by De Moel et al. (2011). The case of Ethiopia demonstrates and compares the feasibility of this novel flood vulnerability method on a country level which holds the potential to be scaled up to a global level. The study shows that flood vulnerability based on building material also allows for better differentiation between flood damage in urban and rural settings, opening doors to better link to poverty studies when such exposure data is available. Furthermore, this new approach paves the road to the enhancement of multi-risk assessments as the method enables the comparison of vulnerability across different natural hazard types that also use material-based vulnerability curves

  10. Groundwater vulnerability assessment using hydrogeologic and geoelectric layer susceptibility indexing at Igbara Oke, Southwestern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.E. Oni

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater vulnerability assessment was carried out at Igbara Oke Southwestern Nigeria, with a view to classify the area into vulnerability zones, by applying the electrical resistivity method, using Schlumberger electrode arrays with maximum electrode separation (AB/2 of 65 m in (41 different locations for data acquisition. Geoelectric parameters (layer resistivity and thickness were determined from the interpreted data. The study area comprises four geoelectric layers (topsoil, lateritic layer, weathered/fractured layer and fresh basement. The geoelectric parameters of the overlying layers across the area were used to assess the vulnerability of the underlying aquifers to near-surface contaminants with the aid of vulnerability maps generated. Three models were compared by maps using geo-electrically derived models; longitudinal conductance, GOD (groundwater occurrence, overlying lithology and depth to the aquifer and GLSI (geoelectric layer susceptibility indexing. The total longitudinal conductance map shows the north central part of the study area as a weakly protected (0.1–0.19 area, while the northern and southern parts have poor protective capacity (<0.1; this is in agreement with the GOD method which shows the northern part of the study area as less vulnerable (0–0.1 while the southern part has low/moderate (0.1–0.3 vulnerability to contamination. The longitudinal conductance exaggerates the degree of susceptibility to contamination than the GOD and GLSI models. From the models, vulnerability to contamination can be considered higher at the southern part than the northern part and therefore, sources of contamination like septic tank, refuse dump should be cited far from groundwater development area. Keywords: Aquifer vulnerability, Longitudinal conductance, GOD and GLSI

  11. Systematic risk assessment methodology for critical infrastructure elements - Oil and Gas subsectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gheorghiu, A.-D.; Ozunu, A.

    2012-04-01

    The concern for the protection of critical infrastructure has been rapidly growing in the last few years in Europe. The level of knowledge and preparedness in this field is beginning to develop in a lawfully organized manner, for the identification and designation of critical infrastructure elements of national and European interest. Oil and gas production, refining, treatment, storage and transmission by pipelines facilities, are considered European critical infrastructure sectors, as per Annex I of the Council Directive 2008/114/EC of 8 December 2008 on the identification and designation of European critical infrastructures and the assessment of the need to improve their protection. Besides identifying European and national critical infrastructure elements, member states also need to perform a risk analysis for these infrastructure items, as stated in Annex II of the above mentioned Directive. In the field of risk assessment, there are a series of acknowledged and successfully used methods in the world, but not all hazard identification and assessment methods and techniques are suitable for a given site, situation, or type of hazard. As Theoharidou, M. et al. noted (Theoharidou, M., P. Kotzanikolaou, and D. Gritzalis 2009. Risk-Based Criticality Analysis. In Critical Infrastructure Protection III. Proceedings. Third Annual IFIP WG 11.10 International Conference on Critical Infrastructure Protection. Hanover, New Hampshire, USA, March 23-25, 2009: revised selected papers, edited by C. Palmer and S. Shenoi, 35-49. Berlin: Springer.), despite the wealth of knowledge already created, there is a need for simple, feasible, and standardized criticality analyses. The proposed systematic risk assessment methodology includes three basic steps: the first step (preliminary analysis) includes the identification of hazards (including possible natural hazards) for each installation/section within a given site, followed by a criterial analysis and then a detailed analysis step

  12. Research on seal control systems for international nuclear safeguard and the vulnerability assessment on the seals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Hongjian; Liu Tianshu; Cao Fangfang; Xu Chunyan

    2014-01-01

    Safeguard seals, also called Tamper-indicating devices (TIDs), are widely used to detect tampering or unauthorized entry in the international safeguard and security systems, Seal control systems consist of seal implementing plan, seal development and the vulnerability assessment on tbe seals, effective implementing procedures and methods of the seals. The vulnerability assessment contents of safeguard seals, thermo-shrinked film seals being as an example, and seals control systems in the implementation program are researched. The seal control systems discuss task assignment, seals management flow and seals program data flow to promote applying effectively seals. The vulnerability assessment program of seals studies assurance level to some different tampering techniques and measures. The researches must promote utilizing seals effectively for nuclear security, non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, radioactive waste management, and the nuclear material accounting and control. (authors)

  13. Assessing the Vulnerability of Wheat Farmers to Drought in North of Fars Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Iraji

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Iran is constantly exposed to natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and drought. In the meantime, drought is the major natural disaster which leads to numerous losses in agriculture and water resources, and this phenomenon is slow and creeping.Available evidence suggests that drought management is based on crisis management. As the present management in our country is based on crisis management, and drought-proneareasin thecountryhave become a society vulnerable to drought. So, the authorities require a new set of data for drought preparedness to deal with these challenges, in order to obtain the resources to be properly and effectively prioritized and reduce the effects of drought and its consequences. Undoubtedly, the starting point of vulnerability assessment and risk management is a prerequisite that has been sadly neglected in our country. In this context, the aim of this study is to determine the vulnerability of technical, economic and social vulnerability assessment determined before and after the drought and vulnerability patterns for wheat farmers in the North of Fars province. Materials and Methods: The vulnerability of wheat farmers in the North of Fars province is determined using three methods. The first method measured ex ante vulnerability based on estimated income distributions, and the other identified ex post vulnerability according to farmers asset positions and drought coping strategy in the 1390 drought. The final section determined the patterns of vulnerability using cluster analysis and data mining. A sample of 203 farmers in three plains was selected for interview and collection of necessary farm level data for two years (1390 and 1391 was carried out. In this study, to assess the vulnerability of households in the North of Fars province against drought, the formula Me-bar and Valdez has been used. In North of Fars province, as many other fields, agriculture is the main source of income and income

  14. Rapid assessment of infrastructure of primary health care facilities - a relevant instrument for health care systems management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholz, Stefan; Ngoli, Baltazar; Flessa, Steffen

    2015-05-01

    Health care infrastructure constitutes a major component of the structural quality of a health system. Infrastructural deficiencies of health services are reported in literature and research. A number of instruments exist for the assessment of infrastructure. However, no easy-to-use instruments to assess health facility infrastructure in developing countries are available. Present tools are not applicable for a rapid assessment by health facility staff. Therefore, health information systems lack data on facility infrastructure. A rapid assessment tool for the infrastructure of primary health care facilities was developed by the authors and pilot-tested in Tanzania. The tool measures the quality of all infrastructural components comprehensively and with high standardization. Ratings use a 2-1-0 scheme which is frequently used in Tanzanian health care services. Infrastructural indicators and indices are obtained from the assessment and serve for reporting and tracing of interventions. The tool was pilot-tested in Tanga Region (Tanzania). The pilot test covered seven primary care facilities in the range between dispensary and district hospital. The assessment encompassed the facilities as entities as well as 42 facility buildings and 80 pieces of technical medical equipment. A full assessment of facility infrastructure was undertaken by health care professionals while the rapid assessment was performed by facility staff. Serious infrastructural deficiencies were revealed. The rapid assessment tool proved a reliable instrument of routine data collection by health facility staff. The authors recommend integrating the rapid assessment tool in the health information systems of developing countries. Health authorities in a decentralized health system are thus enabled to detect infrastructural deficiencies and trace the effects of interventions. The tool can lay the data foundation for district facility infrastructure management.

  15. Rainfall-induced landslide vulnerability Assessment in urban area reflecting Urban structure and building characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, C.; Cho, M.; Lee, D.

    2017-12-01

    Landslide vulnerability assessment methodology of urban area is proposed with urban structure and building charateristics which can consider total damage cost of climate impacts. We used probabilistic analysis method for modeling rainfall-induced shallow landslide susceptibility by slope stability analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. And We combined debris flows with considering spatial movements under topographical condition and built environmental condition. Urban vulnerability of landslide is assessed by two categories: physical demages and urban structure aspect. Physical vulnerability is related to buildings, road, other ubran infra. Urban structure vulnerability is considered a function of the socio-economic factors, trigger factor of secondary damage, and preparedness level of the local government. An index-based model is developed to evaluate the life and indirect damage under landslide as well as the resilience ability against disasters. The analysis was performed in a geographic information system (GIS) environment because GIS can deal efficiently with a large volume of spatial data. The results of the landslide susceptibility assessment were compared with the landslide inventory, and the proposed approach demonstrated good predictive performance. The general trend found in this study indicates that the higher population density areas under a weaker fiscal condition that are located at the downstream of mountainous areas are more vulnerable than the areas in opposite conditions.

  16. A hybrid framework for assessing maize drought vulnerability in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamali, B.; Abbaspour, K. C.; Wehrli, B.; Yang, H.

    2017-12-01

    Drought has devastating impacts on crop yields. Quantifying drought vulnerability is the first step to better design of mitigation policies. The vulnerability of crop yield to drought has been assessed with different methods, however they lack a standardized base to measure its components and a procedure that facilitates spatial and temporal comparisons. This study attempts to quantify maize drought vulnerability through linking the Drought Exposure Index (DEI) to the Crop Failure Index (CFI). DEI and CFI were defined by fitting probability distribution functions to precipitation and maize yield respectively. To acquire crop drought vulnerability index (CDVI), DEI and CFI were combined in a hybrid framework which classifies CDVI with the same base as DEI and CFI. The analysis were implemented on Sub-Saharan African countries using maize yield simulated with the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model at 0.5° resolution. The model was coupled with the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting algorithm for calibration at country level. Our results show that Central Africa and those Western African countries located below the Sahelian strip receive higher amount of precipitation, but experience high crop failure. Therefore, they are identified as more vulnerable regions compared to countries such as South Africa, Tanzania, and Kenya. We concluded that our hybrid approach complements information on crop drought vulnerability quantification and can be applied to different regions and scales.

  17. An assessment of flood vulnerability in Khyber Pukhtunkhwa province of Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Said Qasim

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In this research we have attempted to measure vulnerability of the communities living in the flood prone area of Khyber Pukhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. Extensive literature review was conducted to identify the flood vulnerability indicators. Primary data were used to achieve the objective of this study. Questionnaires were used to collect the primary data from the selected households and from the director of Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management. Subjective assessment technique was used to allocate weights to the selected indicators of vulnerability. A sample size of 280 respondents was taken from three selected locations of Charsadda, Nowshera and Peshawar. Simple random sampling was employed for the selection of respondents. Results revealed that overall vulnerability as well as component vulnerability for the selected locations was very high. The study therefore recommends preparedness, provision of funds for building houses with flood resistant materials and building houses in safer places. There is also a need for enhancing the adaptive capacities of the concerned communities through their socio-economic uplift. Implementation of these policies would lower the vulnerability of the communities to flood disasters.

  18. Assessment of aquifer intrinsic vulnerability using GIS based Drastic model in Sialkot area, Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Saqib Khan

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The intrinsic vulnerability of a shallow aquifer of Sialkot is assessed using DRASTIC index method. The information required as input for all seven parameters, i.e. depth to water table, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, the impact of vadose zone and hydraulic conductivity data were collected from literature surveys and on field surveys. A cumulative vulnerability map was developed using the indices obtained as a result of DRASTIC methodology. The values obtained from DRASTIC model for the study area were between 112 and 151. The area was dominated by medium and moderate vulnerable zones covering an area of 446 km2 and 442 km2 respectively. An area of 79 km2 was covered by the low vulnerable zone while the high vulnerable zone encompassed a total area of 38 km2. Least covered area i-e., 09 km2 was found in the vicinity of the very high vulnerable zone. The validation of the DRASTIC model using the nitrate distribution revealed that very high and high indices have the lower percentage of reliability than of the low to moderate zones as compared with the nitrate distribution in the groundwater.

  19. Assessing global exposure and vulnerability towards natural hazards: the Disaster Risk Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Peduzzi

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model of factors influencing levels of human losses from natural hazards at the global scale, for the period 1980–2000. This model was designed for the United Nations Development Programme as a building stone of the Disaster Risk Index (DRI, which aims at monitoring the evolution of risk. Assessing what countries are most at risk requires considering various types of hazards, such as droughts, floods, cyclones and earthquakes. Before assessing risk, these four hazards were modelled using GIS and overlaid with a model of population distribution in order to extract human exposure. Human vulnerability was measured by crossing exposure with selected socio-economic parameters. The model evaluates to what extent observed past losses are related to population exposure and vulnerability. Results reveal that human vulnerability is mostly linked with country development level and environmental quality. A classification of countries is provided, as well as recommendations on data improvement for future use of the model.

  20. Vulnerability Assessment for a Complex Structure Using Vibration Response Induced by Impact Load

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Jeongwon; Park, Junhong; Koo, Man Hoi

    2014-01-01

    This work presents a vulnerability assessment procedure for a complex structure using vibration characteristics. The structural behavior of a three-dimensional framed structure subjected to impact forces was predicted using the spectral element method. The Timoshenko beam function was applied to simulate the impact wave propagations induced by a high-velocity projectile at relatively high frequencies. The interactions at the joints were analyzed for both flexural and longitudinal wave propagations. Simulations of the impact energy transfer through the entire structure were performed using the transient displacement and acceleration responses obtained from the frequency analysis. The kill probabilities of the crucial components for an operating system were calculated as a function of the predicted acceleration amplitudes according to the acceptable vibration levels. Following the proposed vulnerability assessment procedure, the vulnerable positions of a three-dimensional combat vehicle with high possibilities of damage generation of components by impact loading were identified from the estimated vibration responses

  1. A novel method of sensitivity analysis testing by applying the DRASTIC and fuzzy optimization methods to assess groundwater vulnerability to pollution: the case of the Senegal River basin in Mali

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souleymane, Keita; Zhonghua, Tang

    2017-08-01

    Vulnerability to groundwater pollution in the Senegal River basin was studied by two different but complementary methods: the DRASTIC method (which evaluates the intrinsic vulnerability) and the fuzzy method (which assesses the specific vulnerability by taking into account the continuity of the parameters). The validation of this application has been tested by comparing the connection in groundwater and distribution of different established classes of vulnerabilities as well as the nitrate distribution in the study area. Three vulnerability classes (low, medium and high) have been identified by both the DRASTIC method and the fuzzy method (between which the normalized model was used). An integrated analysis reveals that high classes with 14.64 % (for the DRASTIC method), 21.68 % (for the normalized DRASTIC method) and 18.92 % (for the fuzzy method) are not the most dominant. In addition, a new method for sensitivity analysis was used to identify (and confirm) the main parameters which impact the vulnerability to pollution with fuzzy membership. The results showed that the vadose zone is the main parameter which impacts groundwater vulnerability to pollution while net recharge contributes least to pollution in the study area. It was also found that the fuzzy method better assesses the vulnerability to pollution with a coincidence rate of 81.13 % versus that of 77.35 % for the DRASTIC method. These results serve as a guide for policymakers to identify areas sensitive to pollution before such sites are used for socioeconomic infrastructures.

  2. Hybrid data mining-regression for infrastructure risk assessment based on zero-inflated data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guikema, S.D.; Quiring, S.M.

    2012-01-01

    Infrastructure disaster risk assessment seeks to estimate the probability of a given customer or area losing service during a disaster, sometimes in conjunction with estimating the duration of each outage. This is often done on the basis of past data about the effects of similar events impacting the same or similar systems. In many situations this past performance data from infrastructure systems is zero-inflated; it has more zeros than can be appropriately modeled with standard probability distributions. The data are also often non-linear and exhibit threshold effects due to the complexities of infrastructure system performance. Standard zero-inflated statistical models such as zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models do not adequately capture these complexities. In this paper we develop a novel method that is a hybrid classification tree/regression method for complex, zero-inflated data sets. We investigate its predictive accuracy based on a large number of simulated data sets and then demonstrate its practical usefulness with an application to hurricane power outage risk assessment for a large utility based on actual data from the utility. While formulated for infrastructure disaster risk assessment, this method is promising for data-driven analysis for other situations with zero-inflated, complex data exhibiting response thresholds.

  3. (Non-) robustness of vulnerability assessments to climate change: An application to New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Mario Andres; Bucaram, Santiago; Renteria, Willington

    2017-12-01

    Assessments of vulnerability to climate change are a key element to inform climate policy and research. Assessments based on the aggregation of indicators have a strong appeal for their simplicity but are at risk of over-simplification and uncertainty. This paper explores the non-robustness of indicators-based assessments to changes in assumptions on the degree of substitution or compensation between indicators. Our case study is a nationwide assessment for New Zealand. We found that the ranking of geographic areas is sensitive to different parameterisations of the aggregation function, that is, areas that are categorised as highly vulnerable may switch to the least vulnerable category even with respect to the same climate hazards and population groups. Policy implications from the assessments are then compromised. Though indicators-based approaches may help on identifying drivers of vulnerability, there are weak grounds to use them to recommend mitigation or adaptation decisions given the high level of uncertainty because of non-robustness. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Cyber and physical infrastructure interdependencies.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phillips, Laurence R.; Kelic, Andjelka; Warren, Drake E.

    2008-09-01

    The goal of the work discussed in this document is to understand the risk to the nation of cyber attacks on critical infrastructures. The large body of research results on cyber attacks against physical infrastructure vulnerabilities has not resulted in clear understanding of the cascading effects a cyber-caused disruption can have on critical national infrastructures and the ability of these affected infrastructures to deliver services. This document discusses current research and methodologies aimed at assessing the translation of a cyber-based effect into a physical disruption of infrastructure and thence into quantification of the economic consequences of the resultant disruption and damage. The document discusses the deficiencies of the existing methods in correlating cyber attacks with physical consequences. The document then outlines a research plan to correct those deficiencies. When completed, the research plan will result in a fully supported methodology to quantify the economic consequences of events that begin with cyber effects, cascade into other physical infrastructure impacts, and result in degradation of the critical infrastructure's ability to deliver services and products. This methodology enables quantification of the risks to national critical infrastructure of cyber threats. The work addresses the electric power sector as an example of how the methodology can be applied.

  5. Climate Change and Coastal Zones. An Overview of the State-of-the-Art on Regional and Local Vulnerability Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sterr, H.; Klein, R.J.T.; Reese, S.

    2000-06-01

    This paper provides an overview of the latest developments in methodologies for assessing the vulnerability of coastal zones to climate change at regional and local scales. The focus of vulnerability assessment in coastal zones used to be on erosion and land loss due to sea-level rise. Methodologies now increasingly consider the wide range of climate and impact variables that play a part in determining coastal vulnerability, as well as non-climatic developments. The paper presents a conceptual framework for vulnerability assessment that identifies a number of system components that can be considered determinants of vulnerability. It then goes on to outline a number of steps that are required for the actual assessment of coastal vulnerability, such as scenario development, data collection and impact assessment. The approach is illustrated using a regional and local case study in Germany

  6. Review on Rapid Seismic Vulnerability Assessment for Bulk of Buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nanda, R. P.; Majhi, D. R.

    2013-09-01

    This paper provides a brief overview of rapid visual screening (RVS) procedures available in different countries with a comparison among all the methods. Seismic evaluation guidelines from, USA, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, India, Europe, Italy, UNDP, with other methods are reviewed from the perspective of their applicability to developing countries. The review shows clearly that some of the RVS procedures are unsuited for potential use in developing countries. It is expected that this comparative assessment of various evaluation schemes will help to identify the most essential components of such a procedure for use in India and other developing countries, which is not only robust, reliable but also easy to use with available resources. It appears that Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 154 and New Zealand Draft Code approaches can be suitably combined to develop a transparent, reasonably rigorous and generalized procedure for seismic evaluation of buildings in developing countries.

  7. Quantitative assessment of Vulnerability of Forest ecosystem to Climate Change in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byun, J.; Lee, W.; Choi, S.; Oh, S.; Climate Change Model Team

    2011-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the vulnerability of forest ecosystem to climate change in Korea using outputs of vegetation models(HyTAG and MC1) and socio-ecological indicators. Also it suggested adaptation strategies in forest management through analysis of three vulnerability components: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. For the model simulation of past years(1971-2000), the climatic data was prepared by the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA). In addition, for the future simulation, the Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model(MM5) coupling with atmosphere-ocean circulation model(ECHO-G) provide the future climatic data under the A1B scenarios. HyTAG (Hydrological and Thermal Analogy Groups), korean model of forest distribution on a regional-scale, could show extent of sensitivity and adaptive capacity in connection with changing frequency and changing direction of vegetation. MC1 model could provide variation and direction of NPP(Net Primary Production) and SCS(Soil Carbon Storage). In addition, the sensitivity and adaptation capacity were evaluated for each. Besides indicators from models, many other indicators such as financial affairs and number of officers were included in the vulnerability components. As a result of the vulnerability assessment, south western part and Je-ju island of Korea had relatively high vulnerability. This finding is considered to come from a distinctively adaptative capacity. Using these results, we could propose actions against climate change and develop decision making systems on forest management.

  8. Assessing vulnerability of giant pandas to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jia; Liu, Fang; Xue, Yadong; Zhang, Yu; Li, Diqiang

    2017-06-01

    Climate change might pose an additional threat to the already vulnerable giant panda ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ). Effective conservation efforts require projections of vulnerability of the giant panda in facing climate change and proactive strategies to reduce emerging climate-related threats. We used the maximum entropy model to assess the vulnerability of giant panda to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China. The results of modeling included the following findings: (1) the area of suitable habitat for giant pandas was projected to decrease by 281 km 2 from climate change by the 2050s; (2) the mean elevation of suitable habitat of giant panda was predicted to shift 30 m higher due to climate change over this period; (3) the network of nature reserves protect 61.73% of current suitable habitat for the species, and 59.23% of future suitable habitat; (4) current suitable habitat mainly located in Chenggu, Taibai, and Yangxian counties (with a total area of 987 km 2 ) was predicted to be vulnerable. Assessing the vulnerability of giant panda provided adaptive strategies for conservation programs and national park construction. We proposed adaptation strategies to ameliorate the predicted impacts of climate change on giant panda, including establishing and adjusting reserves, establishing habitat corridors, improving adaptive capacity to climate change, and strengthening monitoring of giant panda.

  9. Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, M S; Podesta, G; Fazey, I; Geeson, N; Hessel, R; Hubacek, K; Letson, D; Nainggolan, D; Prell, C; Rickenbach, M G; Ritsema, C; Schwilch, G; Stringer, L C; Thomas, A D

    2013-10-01

    Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change.

  10. Assessing Tsunami Vulnerabilities of Geographies with Shallow Water Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aras, Rifat; Shen, Yuzhong

    2012-01-01

    Tsunami preparedness is crucial for saving human lives in case of disasters that involve massive water movement. In this work, we develop a framework for visual assessment of tsunami preparedness of geographies. Shallow water equations (also called Saint Venant equations) are a set of hyperbolic partial differential equations that are derived by depth-integrating the Navier-Stokes equations and provide a great abstraction of water masses that have lower depths compared to their free surface area. Our specific contribution in this study is to use Microsoft's XNA Game Studio to import underwater and shore line geographies, create different tsunami scenarios, and visualize the propagation of the waves and their impact on the shore line geography. Most importantly, we utilized the computational power of graphical processing units (GPUs) as HLSL based shader files and delegated all of the heavy computations to the GPU. Finally, we also conducted a validation study, in which we have tested our model against a controlled shallow water experiment. We believe that such a framework with an easy to use interface that is based on readily available software libraries, which are widely available and easily distributable, would encourage not only researchers, but also educators to showcase ideas.

  11. Vulnerability assessment: Determining probabilities of neutralization of adversaries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graves, B.R.

    1987-01-01

    The Security Manager charged with the responsibility of designing Safeguards and Security Systems at Department of Energy facilities must take many factors into consideration. There must be a clear understanding, supported by documented guidance, of the level of threat to be addressed; the nature of the facility to be protected, and the funds available to design, implement, and maintain the Safeguards and Security System. Armed with these prerequisites, the Security Manager may then determine the characteristics of the Safeguards measures and security forces necessary to protect the facility. Security forces selection and training programs may then be established based on realistic facility needs. The next step is to attempt to determine the probability of security forces winning in a confrontation with adversaries. To determine the probability of success the Security Manager must consider the characteristics of the facility and surrounding area; the characteristics of the security forces and safeguards system at the facility; the response time and capabilities of the augmentation forces and the characteristics and capabilities of the adversary threat level to be addressed. Obviously, the Safeguards and Security Systems must initially address ''worst case'' scenarios consistent with stated guidelines. Validation of the assessment of the Safeguards and Security Systems must then be determined by simulation testing of the capabilities of the response forces against the capabilities of the adversary

  12. Survey Methods for Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Historical Masonry Buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballarin, M.; Balletti, C.; Faccio, P.; Guerra, F.; Saetta, A.; Vernier, P.

    2017-05-01

    On 20th and 29th of May 2012, two powerful earthquakes struck northern Italy. The epicentres were recorded respectively in Finale Emilia (magnitude 5.9 Ml) and Medolla (magnitude 5.8 Ml) in the province of Modena, though the earthquake was formed by a series of seismic shakes located in the district of the Emilian Po Valley, mainly in the provinces of Modena, Ferrara, Mantova, Reggio Emilia, Bologna and Rovigo. Many monuments in the city of Mantova were hit by the earthquake and, among these, Palazzo Ducale with the well-known Castello di San Giorgio which host the noteworthy "Camera degli Sposi". This building, the most famous of the city, was so damaged that it was closed for more than one year after the earthquake. The emblem of the Palace and Mantova itself, the previously cited "Camera degli Sposi" realized by Andrea Mantegna, was damaged and all the economic and social life of the city was deeply affected. Immediately after the earthquake, the Soprintendenza per i Beni Architettonici e Paesaggistici of Brescia, Cremona and Mantova establish an agreement with the University Iuav of Venice, requiring an analysis and assessment of the damage in order to proceed with the development of an intervention project. This activity turned out to be very important not only from the point of view of the recovery of the architectural and artistic heritage but also because the city's economy is based primarily on tourism. The closure of one of the most important monuments of Mantova has led to a significant and alarming decline in the government income.

  13. SURVEY METHODS FOR SEISMIC VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL MASONRY BUILDINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ballarin

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available On 20th and 29th of May 2012, two powerful earthquakes struck northern Italy. The epicentres were recorded respectively in Finale Emilia (magnitude 5.9 Ml and Medolla (magnitude 5.8 Ml in the province of Modena, though the earthquake was formed by a series of seismic shakes located in the district of the Emilian Po Valley, mainly in the provinces of Modena, Ferrara, Mantova, Reggio Emilia, Bologna and Rovigo. Many monuments in the city of Mantova were hit by the earthquake and, among these, Palazzo Ducale with the well-known Castello di San Giorgio which host the noteworthy “Camera degli Sposi”. This building, the most famous of the city, was so damaged that it was closed for more than one year after the earthquake. The emblem of the Palace and Mantova itself, the previously cited “Camera degli Sposi” realized by Andrea Mantegna, was damaged and all the economic and social life of the city was deeply affected. Immediately after the earthquake, the Soprintendenza per i Beni Architettonici e Paesaggistici of Brescia, Cremona and Mantova establish an agreement with the University Iuav of Venice, requiring an analysis and assessment of the damage in order to proceed with the development of an intervention project. This activity turned out to be very important not only from the point of view of the recovery of the architectural and artistic heritage but also because the city's economy is based primarily on tourism. The closure of one of the most important monuments of Mantova has led to a significant and alarming decline in the government income.

  14. Improving the role of vulnerability assessments In decision support for effective climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda A. Joyce; Constance I. Millar

    2014-01-01

    Vulnerability assessments (VA) have been proposed as an initial step in a process to develop and implement adaptation management for climate change in forest ecosystems. Scientific understanding of the effects of climate change is an ever-accumulating knowledge base. Synthesizing information from this knowledge base in the context of our understanding of ecosystem...

  15. A rapid, low cost approach to coastal vulnerability assessment at a national level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lopez Royo, M.; Ranasinghe, Ranasinghe W M R J B; Jimenez, J.A.

    2016-01-01

    Vulnerability is defined as the system's potential to be damaged by a certain climate change (CC) hazard, and ideally, it has to be assessed by accounting for the different factors controlling the coastal response both in negative (susceptibility) and positive (resilience) terms to changing climatic

  16. 6 CFR 27.240 - Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments. 27.240 Section 27.240 Domestic Security DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY, OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY CHEMICAL FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.240 Review and approval...

  17. Performance-based methodology for assessing seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shibin, Lin; Lili, Xie; Maosheng, Gong; Ming, Li

    2010-06-01

    This paper presents a performance-based methodology for the assessment of seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings. The vulnerability assessment methodology is based on the HAZUS methodology and the improved capacitydemand-diagram method. The spectral displacement ( S d ) of performance points on a capacity curve is used to estimate the damage level of a building. The relationship between S d and peak ground acceleration (PGA) is established, and then a new vulnerability function is expressed in terms of PGA. Furthermore, the expected value of the seismic capacity index (SCev) is provided to estimate the seismic capacity of buildings based on the probability distribution of damage levels and the corresponding seismic capacity index. The results indicate that the proposed vulnerability methodology is able to assess seismic damage of a large number of building stock directly and quickly following an earthquake. The SCev provides an effective index to measure the seismic capacity of buildings and illustrate the relationship between the seismic capacity of buildings and seismic action. The estimated result is compared with damage surveys of the cities of Dujiangyan and Jiangyou in the M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, revealing that the methodology is acceptable for seismic risk assessment and decision making. The primary reasons for discrepancies between the estimated results and the damage surveys are discussed.

  18. A method to assess multi-modal hazmat transport security vulnerabilities: Hazmat transport SVA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, G.L.L.; Dullaert, W.E.H.

    2013-01-01

    The suggested Hazmat transport Security Vulnerability Assessment (SVA) methodology presents a user-friendly approach to determine relative security risk levels of the different modes of hazardous freight transport (i.e., road, railway, inland waterways and pipeline transportation). First, transport

  19. A spatially explicit and quantitative vulnerability assessment of ecosystem service change in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Metzger, M.J.; Schröter, D.; Leemans, R.; Cramer, W.

    2008-01-01

    Environmental change alters ecosystem functioning and may put the provision of services to human at risk. This paper presents a spatially explicit and quantitative assessment of the corresponding vulnerability for Europe, using a new framework designed to answer multidisciplinary policy relevant

  20. Safety, mobility and comfort assessment methodologies of intelligent transport systems for vulnerable road users

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Malone, K.; Silla, A.; Johanssen, C.; Bell, D.

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: This paper describes the modification and development of methodologies to assess the impacts of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) applications for Vulnerable Road users (VRUs) in the domains of safety, mobility and comfort. This effort was carried out in the context of the VRUITS

  1. Security and Vulnerability Assessment of Social Media Sites: An Exploratory Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jensen; Zhao, Sherry Y.

    2015-01-01

    While the growing popularity of social media has brought many benefits to society, it has also resulted in privacy and security threats. The authors assessed the security and vulnerability of 50 social media sites. The findings indicate that most sites (a) posted privacy and security policies but only a minority stated clearly their execution of…

  2. Assessing inter- and intraspecific variability of xylem vulnerability to embolism in oaks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lobo, Albin; Torres-Ruiz, José M.; Burlett, Regis

    2018-01-01

    for future afforestation. However, the presence of long vessels makes it difficult to assess xylem vulnerability to embolism in these species. Thanks to the development of a flow centrifuge equipped with a large rotor, we quantified (i) the between species variability of embolism resistance in four native...

  3. The importance of assessing climate change vulnerability to address species conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karen E. Bagne; Megan M. Friggens; Sharon J. Coe; Deborah M. Finch

    2014-01-01

    Species conservation often prioritizes attention on a small subset of "special status" species at high risk of extinction, but actions based on current lists of special status species may not effectively moderate biodiversity loss if climate change alters threats. Assessments of climate change vulnerability may provide a method to enhance identification of...

  4. Cyber Infrastructure: The Forgotten Vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-22

    Executives Apologize for Data Breach ,” Fox News, last modified February 5, 2014, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/02/05/target-neiman-marcus...executives- apologize-for- data - breach / (accessessed February 6, 2014). 7Brendan Sasso, “After Defeat of Senate Cybersecurity Bill, Obama Weighs Executive...News. “Target, Neiman Marcus Executives Apologize for Data Breach .” Fox News. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/02/05/target-neiman-marcus

  5. Groundwater vulnerability assessment: from overlay methods to statistical methods in the Lombardy Plain area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefania Stevenazzi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater is among the most important freshwater resources. Worldwide, aquifers are experiencing an increasing threat of pollution from urbanization, industrial development, agricultural activities and mining enterprise. Thus, practical actions, strategies and solutions to protect groundwater from these anthropogenic sources are widely required. The most efficient tool, which helps supporting land use planning, while protecting groundwater from contamination, is represented by groundwater vulnerability assessment. Over the years, several methods assessing groundwater vulnerability have been developed: overlay and index methods, statistical and process-based methods. All methods are means to synthesize complex hydrogeological information into a unique document, which is a groundwater vulnerability map, useable by planners, decision and policy makers, geoscientists and the public. Although it is not possible to identify an approach which could be the best one for all situations, the final product should always be scientific defensible, meaningful and reliable. Nevertheless, various methods may produce very different results at any given site. Thus, reasons for similarities and differences need to be deeply investigated. This study demonstrates the reliability and flexibility of a spatial statistical method to assess groundwater vulnerability to contamination at a regional scale. The Lombardy Plain case study is particularly interesting for its long history of groundwater monitoring (quality and quantity, availability of hydrogeological data, and combined presence of various anthropogenic sources of contamination. Recent updates of the regional water protection plan have raised the necessity of realizing more flexible, reliable and accurate groundwater vulnerability maps. A comparison of groundwater vulnerability maps obtained through different approaches and developed in a time span of several years has demonstrated the relevance of the

  6. Combining demographic and genetic factors to assess population vulnerability in stream species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erin L, Landguth; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Jones, Leslie W.; Waples, Robin S.; Whited, Diane; Lowe, Winsor H.; Lucotch, John; Neville, Helen; Luikart, Gordon

    2014-01-01

    Accelerating climate change and other cumulative stressors create an urgent need to understand the influence of environmental variation and landscape features on the connectivity and vulnerability of freshwater species. Here, we introduce a novel modeling framework for aquatic systems that integrates spatially explicit, individual-based, demographic and genetic (demogenetic) assessments with environmental variables. To show its potential utility, we simulated a hypothetical network of 19 migratory riverine populations (e.g., salmonids) using a riverscape connectivity and demogenetic model (CDFISH). We assessed how stream resistance to movement (a function of water temperature, fluvial distance, and physical barriers) might influence demogenetic connectivity, and hence, population vulnerability. We present demographic metrics (abundance, immigration, and change in abundance) and genetic metrics (diversity, differentiation, and change in differentiation), and combine them into a single vulnerability index for identifying populations at risk of extirpation. We considered four realistic scenarios that illustrate the relative sensitivity of these metrics for early detection of reduced connectivity: (1) maximum resistance due to high water temperatures throughout the network, (2) minimum resistance due to low water temperatures throughout the network, (3) increased resistance at a tributary junction caused by a partial barrier, and (4) complete isolation of a tributary, leaving resident individuals only. We then applied this demogenetic framework using empirical data for a bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) metapopulation in the upper Flathead River system, Canada and USA, to assess how current and predicted future stream warming may influence population vulnerability. Results suggest that warmer water temperatures and associated barriers to movement (e.g., low flows, dewatering) are predicted to fragment suitable habitat for migratory salmonids, resulting in the loss

  7. Securing energy assets and infrastructure 2007

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-06-15

    This report describes in detail the energy industry's challenges and solutions for protecting critical assets including oil and gas infrastructure, transmission grids, power plants, storage, pipelines, and all aspects of strategic industry assets. It includes a special section on cyber-terrorism and protecting control systems. Contents: Section I - Introduction; U.S Energy Trends; Vulnerabilities; Protection Measures. Section II - Sector-wise Vulnerabilities Assessments and Security Measures: Coal, Oil and Petroleum, Natural Gas, Electric Power, Cybersecurity and Control Systems, Key Recommendations; Section III - Critical Infrastructure Protection Efforts: Government Initiatives, Agencies, and Checklists.

  8. [The assessment of vulnerability to floods in Guangdong province at district level].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Qi; Liu, Tao; Zhang, Yong-hui; Luo, Yuan; Wei, Yao; Xiao, Jian-peng; Zeng, Si-qing; Ma, Wen-jun

    2012-11-01

    To evaluate the vulnerability to floods in Guangdong province at district level. Data were collected from the sixth census, the 2010 Statistical Yearbook of Guangdong, the 2010 Health Statistics Yearbook of Guangdong and China Disease Prevention and Control information systems, etc. The weight of each indicator was determined based on subjective method and objective method respectively; and finally the results of the two methods were compared. 13 indicators were selected for the assessment of vulnerability to floods, including 6 sensitivity indicators, 5 adaptability indicators and 2 exposure indicators. Indicators with large weight (subjective weight/objective weight) were the proportion of population older than 65 years old (0.31/0.30), the proportion of population older than 65 years old (0.16/0.23), infant mortality rate (0.18/0.20), the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita (0.33/0.21), the proportion of illiterate in the population older than 15 years old (0.19/0.28), history frequency of floods (0.75/0.75). The mean vulnerability index (VI) calculated by subjective method was 0.35 with the standard deviation of 0.10; the mean vulnerability index calculated by objective method was 0.31 with the standard deviation of 0.08. The two weighting methods showed consistent results of vulnerability index (ICC = 0.975, P 0.50 or objective VI > 0.40 should pay more attention to floods, including parts of the coastal areas, Beijiang River Basin, the eastern tributary area of Dongjiang River and the northern part of Pearl River Delta. Dapu district of Meizhou (0.55/0.45), Dianbai district and Maogang district of Maoming (0.54/0.48) were most vulnerable. Districts of Heyuan, Dongguan, Zhaoqing and Huizhou were less vulnerable, Yuancheng district of Heyuan showed least vulnerable to floods (0.15/0.12) followed by Dongguan (0.18/0.16), Duanzhou district (0.18/0.16) and Guangning (0.17/0.15) district of Zhaoqing. The score of indicators differed among different level

  9. Assessment of the Green Infrastructure of Bucharest using CORINE and Urban Atlas data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandru-Ionuţ Petrişor

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Urban ecology provides the theoretical foundation for assessing the interaction between man and nature in cities. Nature seems to be reduced and malfunctioning, resulting into a decrease in the ecosystem services provided to humans. The new method, based on assessing the green infrastructure, is designed to replace monetary and carbon footprint assessments and be particularly relevant for the urban areas, which grow and change fast and are the main drivers of environmental changes. This study uses 2005-2007 CORINE and Urban Atlas data to look at Bucharest. The results show that, despite of the method, the area occupied by the green infrastructure represents about 1/3 of the total area, corresponding to 50 m2/person, although the green spaces only account for 6.5 m2/person, which is far below the European average (26 m2/person.

  10. Social vulnerability assessment using spatial multi-criteria analysis (SEVI model and the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI model – a case study for Bucharest, Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Armaș

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In recent decades, the development of vulnerability frameworks has enlarged the research in the natural hazards field. Despite progress in developing the vulnerability studies, there is more to investigate regarding the quantitative approach and clarification of the conceptual explanation of the social component. At the same time, some disaster-prone areas register limited attention. Among these, Romania's capital city, Bucharest, is the most earthquake-prone capital in Europe and the tenth in the world. The location is used to assess two multi-criteria methods for aggregating complex indicators: the social vulnerability index (SoVI model and the spatial multi-criteria social vulnerability index (SEVI model. Using the data of the 2002 census we reduce the indicators through a factor analytical approach to create the indices and examine if they bear any resemblance to the known vulnerability of Bucharest city through an exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA. This is a critical issue that may provide better understanding of the social vulnerability in the city and appropriate information for authorities and stakeholders to consider in their decision making. The study emphasizes that social vulnerability is an urban process that increased in a post-communist Bucharest, raising the concern that the population at risk lacks the capacity to cope with disasters. The assessment of the indices indicates a significant and similar clustering pattern of the census administrative units, with an overlap between the clustering areas affected by high social vulnerability. Our proposed SEVI model suggests adjustment sensitivity, useful in the expert-opinion accuracy.

  11. Social vulnerability assessment using spatial multi-criteria analysis (SEVI model) and the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI model) - a case study for Bucharest, Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armaş, I.; Gavriş, A.

    2013-06-01

    In recent decades, the development of vulnerability frameworks has enlarged the research in the natural hazards field. Despite progress in developing the vulnerability studies, there is more to investigate regarding the quantitative approach and clarification of the conceptual explanation of the social component. At the same time, some disaster-prone areas register limited attention. Among these, Romania's capital city, Bucharest, is the most earthquake-prone capital in Europe and the tenth in the world. The location is used to assess two multi-criteria methods for aggregating complex indicators: the social vulnerability index (SoVI model) and the spatial multi-criteria social vulnerability index (SEVI model). Using the data of the 2002 census we reduce the indicators through a factor analytical approach to create the indices and examine if they bear any resemblance to the known vulnerability of Bucharest city through an exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA). This is a critical issue that may provide better understanding of the social vulnerability in the city and appropriate information for authorities and stakeholders to consider in their decision making. The study emphasizes that social vulnerability is an urban process that increased in a post-communist Bucharest, raising the concern that the population at risk lacks the capacity to cope with disasters. The assessment of the indices indicates a significant and similar clustering pattern of the census administrative units, with an overlap between the clustering areas affected by high social vulnerability. Our proposed SEVI model suggests adjustment sensitivity, useful in the expert-opinion accuracy.

  12. Assessing social vulnerability to drought in South Africa: Policy implication for drought risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fumiso Muyambo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article was to assess and identify social vulnerability of communal farmers to drought in the O.R. Tambo district in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa using a survey data and social vulnerability index (SoVI. Eleven social vulnerability indicators were identified using Bogardi, Birkman and Cardona conceptual framework. The result found that an SoVI estimated for O.R. Tambo district was very high with a Likert scale of 5 for cultural values and practices, security or safety, social networks, social dependence, preparedness strategies and psychological stress attributed for the high value of social vulnerability to drought. Indigenous knowledge and education had an SoVI value of 2, which was of low vulnerability, contributing positively to resilience to drought. The study also found that government involvement in drought risk reduction is limited; as a result, the study recommends that a national, provincial and district municipalities policy on drought risk reduction and mitigation should be developed.

  13. Exposure and vulnerability assessment of buildings extracted from lidar derived datasets in Bucao River floodplains, Zambales, Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paz-Alberto, Annie Melinda; Ramos, Gloria N.; Espiritu, Jo Adrianne; Mapanao, Kathrina M.; Lao, Ranilo B.

    2017-09-01

    The Philippines has a geographic and geological setting that make it prone to various hazards including weather and climate-related. It is usually strongly affected by monsoon and typhoon occurrences that cause floods due to torrential rains that causes great risks in man's life and properties, resulting in a significant national loss. Strategies for disaster prevention to protect human lives, properties and social infrastructure is therefore necessary. Different important parameters in disaster risk management such as earth observations, Light Detection and Ranging and Geographic Information System were integrated and utilized in this study. This study dealt with mapping and assessment of buildings that might possibly be exposed and vulnerable to flooding based on the simulated flood maps at different rainfall scenarios in Bucao River Basin. The assessment was done through GIS overlay analysis of the CLSU PHIL-LiDAR 1 Project outputs, the 3D building GIS database and flood hazard maps. Results of this study were series of maps with statistics at different rainfall scenarios. From 23,097 building features extracted, 10,118 buildings, 4,258 buildings and 7,433 buildings were the identified highest number of buildings exposed to flooding and a total of 2,427 buildings, 3,914 buildings and 7,204 buildings from the exposed were identified that had high vulnerabilities in terms of height at low, medium and high hazards of 100 year return period, respectively. Through these maps, it is easier to disseminate information that is more realistic to the residents about the hazardous areas and to help them act on warning and evacuating measures.

  14. Assessment of Political Vulnerabilities on Security of Energy Supply in the Baltic States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Česnakas Giedrius

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The article argues that despite the evident link between political environment and security of energy supply, political elements are not sufficiently represented in contemporary scientific literature, namely in indexes that are designed for the assessment of security of energy supply. In an attempt to fill this gap, the article presents an innovative methodology for quantitative assessment of the political vulnerabilities on security of energy supply and applies it to the analysis of the Baltic States.

  15. Quality of service provision assessment in the healthcare information and telecommunications infrastructures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babulak, Eduard

    2006-01-01

    The continuous increase in the complexity and the heterogeneity of corporate and healthcare telecommunications infrastructures will require new assessment methods of quality of service (QoS) provision that are capable of addressing all engineering and social issues with much faster speeds. Speed and accessibility to any information at any time from anywhere will create global communications infrastructures with great performance bottlenecks that may put in danger human lives, power supplies, national economy and security. Regardless of the technology supporting the information flows, the final verdict on the QoS is made by the end user. The users' perception of telecommunications' network infrastructure QoS provision is critical to the successful business management operation of any organization. As a result, it is essential to assess the QoS Provision in the light of user's perception. This article presents a cost effective methodology to assess the user's perception of quality of service provision utilizing the existing Staffordshire University Network (SUN) by adding a component of measurement to the existing model presented by Walker. This paper presents the real examples of CISCO Networking Solutions for Health Care givers and offers a cost effective approach to assess the QoS provision within the campus network, which could be easily adapted to any health care organization or campus network in the world.

  16. Integrated assessment on the vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disasters under climate change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Yanqiang; Wang, Shijin; Fang, Yiping; Nawaz, Zain

    2017-10-01

    Animal husbandry is a dominant and traditional source of livelihood and income in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is the third largest snow covered area in China and is one of the main snow disaster regions in the world. It is thus imperative to urgently address the issue of vulnerability of the animal husbandry sector to snow disasters for disaster mitigation and adaptation under growing risk of these disasters as a result of future climate change. However, there is very few literature reported on the vulnerability of animal husbandry in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. This assessment aims at identifying vulnerability of animal husbandry at spatial scale and to identify the reasons for vulnerability for adaptive planning and disaster mitigation. First, historical snow disaster characteristics have been analyzed and used for the spatial weight for vulnerability assessment. Second, indicator-based vulnerability assessment model and indicator system have been established. We combined risk of snow hazard, sensitivity of livestock to disaster, physical exposure to disaster, and community capacity to adapt to snow disaster in an integrated vulnerability index. Lastly, vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disaster on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has been evaluated. Results indicate that high vulnerabilities are mainly concentrated in the eastern and central plateau and that vulnerability decreases gradually from the east to the west. Due to global warming, the vulnerability trend has eased to some extent during the last few decades. High livestock density exposure to blizzard-prone regions and shortages of livestock barn and forage are the main reasons of high vulnerability. The conclusion emphasizes the important role of the local government and community to help local pastoralists for reducing vulnerability to snow disaster and frozen hazard. The approaches presented in this paper can be used for snow disaster mitigation, resilience

  17. Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability Through the Use of GIS Tools in South Sicily (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anfuso, Giorgio; Martínez Del Pozo, José Ángel

    2009-03-01

    This study assessed coastal erosion vulnerability along a 90-km sector, which included both erosional and accretionary beaches, and different levels of human occupation. Two aerial photogrammetric flights were used to reconstruct coastal evolution between 1977 and 1999. During this period, extensive accretion was recorded updrift of human structures at harbors and ports, e.g., Scoglitti (105.6 m), Donnalucata (52.8 m), and Pozzallo (94.6 m). Conversely, erosion was recorded in downdrift areas, with maximum values at Modica Stream mouth (63.8 m) and Point Castellazzo (35.2 m). Assessments were subsequently divided into four categories ranging from “high erosion” to “accretion.” Several sources were examined to assess human activities and land use. The latter was mapped and divided into four categories, ranging from “very high” to “no capital” land use. Subsequently, coastal erosion vulnerability was assessed by combining land use categories with recorded coastline behavior. Results showed “very high” to “high” vulnerability along 5.8% and 16.6%, respectively, of the littoral, while 20.9% and 56.7%, respectively, was found to exhibit “medium” and “low/very low” vulnerability. A very good agreement between predicted coastal vulnerability and coastal trend had been observed over recent years. Furthermore, several human structures and activities are located within the “imminent collapse zone (ICZ)” which reached maximum values of 17.5 m at Modica Stream and 13.5 m at Point Braccetto.

  18. A Temporal Assessment of Barrier Island Vulnerability to Extreme Wave Events, Virginia Coast Reserve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oster, D. J.; Moore, L. J.; Doran, K. J.; Stockdon, H. F.

    2010-12-01

    Barrier island vulnerability to storm-generated waves is directly related to interactions between shoreface morphology and surf-zone dynamics. During storms, the seaward-most dune often limits the landward extent of wave energy; however, if maximum wave run-up exceeds the elevation of the top of the dune, overwash or inundation may occur. The ‘Storm Impact Scale’ presented by Sallenger (2000) classifies barrier beach vulnerability to individual storm events based on the elevation of the frontal dune crest and toe relative to maximum wave run-up. Changes to the dune and beachface can occur over a range of time scales, altering local vulnerability to extreme waves from storms, even as a storm is occurring. As sea level continues to rise, barrier beaches will become increasingly vulnerable to overwash and inundation from a greater number of storms. Our objective is to assess temporal trends in barrier island vulnerability while also exploring island-chain-wide response and recovery from two notably different storm events (Nor’Ida and Hurricane Bonnie) along the undeveloped barrier islands of the Virginia Coast Reserve (VCR). We compare shoreline position and elevations of the frontal dune crest (DHIGH) and dune toe (DLOW) across four lidar data sets collected between 1998-2010. Observed significant wave height and period from the National Data Buoy Center and the Duck, NC Field Research Facility for the time period between 1985 and 2009 are classified to represent one-year, five-year, and ten-year storm events that serve as the basis for comparison of island vulnerability through time to a range of storm severity. Initial results reveal significant spatial and temporal variation in barrier island vulnerability to storms throughout the VCR. Despite the range of variability, all three beach features (i.e., shoreline position, DHIGH and DLOW), have moved landward indicating large-scale, widespread migration, or narrowing, of VCR barrier island landforms over the

  19. Assessing socioeconomic vulnerability to dengue fever in Cali, Colombia: statistical vs expert-based modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagenlocher, Michael; Delmelle, Eric; Casas, Irene; Kienberger, Stefan

    2013-08-14

    As a result of changes in climatic conditions and greater resistance to insecticides, many regions across the globe, including Colombia, have been facing a resurgence of vector-borne diseases, and dengue fever in particular. Timely information on both (1) the spatial distribution of the disease, and (2) prevailing vulnerabilities of the population are needed to adequately plan targeted preventive intervention. We propose a methodology for the spatial assessment of current socioeconomic vulnerabilities to dengue fever in Cali, a tropical urban environment of Colombia. Based on a set of socioeconomic and demographic indicators derived from census data and ancillary geospatial datasets, we develop a spatial approach for both expert-based and purely statistical-based modeling of current vulnerability levels across 340 neighborhoods of the city using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The results of both approaches are comparatively evaluated by means of spatial statistics. A web-based approach is proposed to facilitate the visualization and the dissemination of the output vulnerability index to the community. The statistical and the expert-based modeling approach exhibit a high concordance, globally, and spatially. The expert-based approach indicates a slightly higher vulnerability mean (0.53) and vulnerability median (0.56) across all neighborhoods, compared to the purely statistical approach (mean = 0.48; median = 0.49). Both approaches reveal that high values of vulnerability tend to cluster in the eastern, north-eastern, and western part of the city. These are poor neighborhoods with high percentages of young (i.e., local expertise, statistical approaches could be used, with caution. By decomposing identified vulnerability "hotspots" into their underlying factors, our approach provides valuable information on both (1) the location of neighborhoods, and (2) vulnerability factors that should be given priority in the context of targeted intervention

  20. A New Approach to Feasibility Risk Assessment within Transport Infrastructure Appraisal

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2013-01-01

    This paper introduces a new approach of applying feasibility risk assessment within transport project infrastructure appraisal. The procedure is based upon quantitative risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation in combination with conventional cost-benefit analysis converting deterministic benefit...... are, hereby, often basing their decisions on wrongful material. The presented approach to transport infrastructure appraisal is to include uncertainties and risks in the evaluation. Correspondingly, the handling of uncertainties and risk within transport project assessment are often made up...... by sensitivity tests producing deterministically based output values. Research has proven that traditional sensitivity analysis seldomnly captures the total variability especially as concerns the costs and demands estimated in the pre-stage of the evaluation. Therefore, this paper introduces an approach...

  1. A novel critical infrastructure resilience assessment approach using dynamic Bayesian networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Baoping; Xie, Min; Liu, Yonghong; Liu, Yiliu; Ji, Renjie; Feng, Qiang

    2017-10-01

    The word resilience originally originates from the Latin word "resiliere", which means to "bounce back". The concept has been used in various fields, such as ecology, economics, psychology, and society, with different definitions. In the field of critical infrastructure, although some resilience metrics are proposed, they are totally different from each other, which are determined by the performances of the objects of evaluation. Here we bridge the gap by developing a universal critical infrastructure resilience metric from the perspective of reliability engineering. A dynamic Bayesian networks-based assessment approach is proposed to calculate the resilience value. A series, parallel and voting system is used to demonstrate the application of the developed resilience metric and assessment approach.

  2. [Life cycle assessment of the infrastructure for hydrogen sources of fuel cell vehicles].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Wen; Wang, Shujuan; Ni, Weidou; Chen, Changhe

    2003-05-01

    In order to promote the application of life cycle assessment and provide references for China to make the project of infrastructure for hydrogen sources of fuel cell vehicles in the near future, 10 feasible plans of infrastructure for hydrogen sources of fuel cell vehicles were designed according to the current technologies of producing, storing and transporting hydrogen. Then life cycle assessment was used as a tool to evaluate the environmental performances of the 10 plans. The standard indexes of classified environmental impacts of every plan were gotten and sensitivity analysis for several parameters were carried out. The results showed that the best plan was that hydrogen will be produced by natural gas steam reforming in central factory, then transported to refuelling stations through pipelines, and filled to fuel cell vehicles using hydrogen gas at last.

  3. Using Bayesian networks to assess the vulnerability of Hawaiian terrestrial biota to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortini, L.; Jacobi, J.; Price, J.; Vorsino, A.; Paxton, E.; Amidon, F.; 'Ohukani'ohi'a Gon, S., III; Koob, G.; Brink, K.; Burgett, J.; Miller, S.

    2012-12-01

    As the effects of climate change on individual species become increasingly apparent, there is a clear need for effective adaptation planning to prevent an increase in species extinctions worldwide. Given the limited understanding of species responses to climate change, vulnerability assessments and species distribution models (SDMs) have been two common tools used to jump-start climate change adaptation efforts. However, although these two approaches generally serve the same purpose of understanding species future responses to climate change, they have rarely mixed. In collaboration with research and management partners from federal, state and non-profit organizations, we are conducting a climate change vulnerability assessment for hundreds of plant and forest bird species of the Main Hawaiian Islands. This assessment is the first to comprehensively consider the potential threats of climate change to a significant portion of Hawaii's fauna and flora (over one thousand species considered) and thus fills a critical gap defined by natural resource scientists and managers in the region. We have devised a flexible approach that effectively integrates species distribution models into a vulnerability assessment framework that can be easily updated with improved models and data. This tailors our assessment approach to the Pacific Island reality of often limited and fragmented information on species and large future climate uncertainties, This vulnerability assessment is based on a Bayesian network-based approach that integrates multiple landscape (e.g., topographic diversity, dispersal barriers), species trait (e.g., generation length, fecundity) and expert-knowledge based information (e.g., capacity to colonize restored habitat) relevant to long-term persistence of species under climate change. Our presentation will highlight some of the results from our assessment but will mainly focus on the utility of the flexible approach we have developed and its potential

  4. Vulnerability assessment: A comparison of three different city sizes in the coastal area of Central Java, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wiwandari Handayani

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Considering the importance of connecting urbanization phenomena and vulnerability assessments, this paper aims to explore vulnerability assessment in three different city sizes in the northern coast of Central Java province of Indonesia. It compares the vulnerability levels of the three cities based on their sizes (that is, levels of urbanization. It uses the most current secondary data from the lowest administrative levels, called as kelurahan (urban village, for its assessment. There are two indexes used to indicate their vulnerability levels, namely exposure and sensitivity index (ESI and adaptive capacity index (ACI. By combining the ESI and ACI, the study found that the kelurahans in Tegal (the medium sized city have similar vulnerability levels. The kelurahans in Semarang (as the big city have more combination of vulnerability levels—indicating that the city has various sensitivity, exposure, as well as adaptive capacity among its kelurahans. In Lasem (the small sized city, due to limitations imposed by adaptation—mostly because of lack of public services and high dependency on primary economic sectors—all of its kelurahans were found to be vulnerable. The study therefore concluded that the bigger a city is, the more the different areas of that city will have varying levels of vulnerability, leading to a high propensity of vulnerability among its inhabitants. On the other hand, the smaller a city is, the less capacity it will have in reducing its emerging vulnerability challenges.

  5. Coastal erosion vulnerability and risk assessment focusing in tourism beach use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrakis, George

    2016-04-01

    It is well established that the global market for tourism services is a key source of economic growth. Especially among Mediterranean countries, the tourism sector is one of the principal sectors driving national economies. With the majority of the mass tourism activities concentrated around coastal areas, coastal erosion, inter alia, poses a significant threat to coastal economies that depend heavily on revenues from tourism. The economic implications of beach erosion were mainly focused in the cost of coastal protection measures, instead of the revenue losses from tourism. For this, the vulnerability of the coast to sea level rise and associated erosion, in terms of expected land loss and economic activity need to be identified. To achieve this, a joint environmental and economic evaluation approach of the problem can provide a managerial tool to mitigate the impact of beach erosion in tourism, through realistic cost-benefit scenarios for planning alternative protection measures. Such a multipurpose tool needs to consider social, economic and environmental factors, which relationships can be better understood when distributed and analyzed along the geographical space. The risk assessment is implemented through the estimation of the vulnerability and exposure variables of the coast in two scales. The larger scale estimates the vulnerability in a regional level, with the use environmental factors with the use of CVI. The exposure variable is estimated by the use of socioeconomic factors. Subsequently, a smaller scale focuses on highly vulnerable beaches with high social and economic value. The assessment of the natural processes to the environmental characteristics of the beach is estimated with the use of the Beach Vulnerability Index (BVI) method. As exposure variable, the value of beach width that is capitalized in revenues is implemented through a hedonic pricing model. In this econometric modelling, Beach Value is related with economic and environmental

  6. Street Lighting Infrastructure Assessment Using Discriminant and GIS Method on Mount Merapi Evacuation Road

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izdihar, R. P.; Maryono, M.; Widjonarko, W.; Rahayu, S.

    2018-02-01

    This research aims to assess street lighting infrastructure in rural-urban of Mount Merapi Evacuation road. Three evacuation road/corridor; Mriyan-Boyolali, Wonodoyo-Boyolali and Samiran-Boyolali are selected as case study. By using discriminant this study examine 6 variables namely type of lamp, physical component, height, time, power and cons consumption. In addition this study also using GIS method to assessing geographical feature as of previous result. According to the discriminant analysis, the characteristic of street lighting could be distinguished as two characteristic, while from the GIS assessment, the study found three characteristic of geographical street lighting feature.

  7. Vulnerability And Risk Assessment Using The Homeland-Defense Operational Planning System (HOPS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durling, R.L. Jr.; Price, D.E.; Spero, K.K.

    2005-01-01

    For over ten years, the Counterproliferation Analysis and Planning System (CAPS) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has been a planning tool used by U.S. combatant commands for mission support planning against foreign programs engaged in the manufacture of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). CAPS is endorsed by the Secretary of Defense as the preferred counterproliferation tool to be used by the nation's armed services. A sister system, the Homeland-Defense Operational Planning System (HOPS), is a new operational planning tool leveraging CAPS expertise designed to support the defense of the U.S. homeland. HOPS provides planners with a basis to make decisions to protect against acts of terrorism, focusing on the defense of facilities critical to U.S. infrastructure. Criticality of facilities, structures, and systems is evaluated on a composite matrix of specific projected casualty, economic, and sociopolitical impact bins. Based on these criteria, significant unidentified vulnerabilities are identified and secured. To provide insight into potential successes by malevolent actors, HOPS analysts strive to base their efforts mainly on unclassified open-source data. However, more cooperation is needed between HOPS analysts and facility representatives to provide an advantage to those whose task is to defend these facilities. Evaluated facilities include: refineries, major ports, nuclear power plants and other nuclear licensees, dams, government installations, convention centers, sports stadiums, tourist venues, and public and freight transportation systems. A generalized summary of analyses of U.S. infrastructure facilities is presented

  8. Health Effects of Coastal Storms and Flooding in Urban Areas: A Review and Vulnerability Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn Lane

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Coastal storms can take a devastating toll on the public's health. Urban areas like New York City (NYC may be particularly at risk, given their dense population, reliance on transportation, energy infrastructure that is vulnerable to flood damage, and high-rise residential housing, which may be hard-hit by power and utility outages. Climate change will exacerbate these risks in the coming decades. Sea levels are rising due to global warming, which will intensify storm surge. These projections make preparing for the health impacts of storms even more important. We conducted a broad review of the health impacts of US coastal storms to inform climate adaptation planning efforts, with a focus on outcomes relevant to NYC and urban coastal areas, and incorporated some lessons learned from recent experience with Superstorm Sandy. Based on the literature, indicators of health vulnerability were selected and mapped within NYC neighborhoods. Preparing for the broad range of anticipated effects of coastal storms and floods may help reduce the public health burden from these events.

  9. Health effects of coastal storms and flooding in urban areas: a review and vulnerability assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Kathryn; Charles-Guzman, Kizzy; Wheeler, Katherine; Abid, Zaynah; Graber, Nathan; Matte, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Coastal storms can take a devastating toll on the public's health. Urban areas like New York City (NYC) may be particularly at risk, given their dense population, reliance on transportation, energy infrastructure that is vulnerable to flood damage, and high-rise residential housing, which may be hard-hit by power and utility outages. Climate change will exacerbate these risks in the coming decades. Sea levels are rising due to global warming, which will intensify storm surge. These projections make preparing for the health impacts of storms even more important. We conducted a broad review of the health impacts of US coastal storms to inform climate adaptation planning efforts, with a focus on outcomes relevant to NYC and urban coastal areas, and incorporated some lessons learned from recent experience with Superstorm Sandy. Based on the literature, indicators of health vulnerability were selected and mapped within NYC neighborhoods. Preparing for the broad range of anticipated effects of coastal storms and floods may help reduce the public health burden from these events.

  10. Groundwater vulnerability assessment using hydrogeologic and geoelectric layer susceptibility indexing at Igbara Oke, Southwestern Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oni, T. E.; Omosuyi, G. O.; Akinlalu, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Groundwater vulnerability assessment was carried out at Igbara Oke Southwestern Nigeria, with a view to classify the area into vulnerability zones, by applying the electrical resistivity method, using Schlumberger electrode arrays with maximum electrode separation (AB/2) of 65 m in (41) different locations for data acquisition. Geoelectric parameters (layer resistivity and thickness) were determined from the interpreted data. The study area comprises four geoelectric layers (topsoil, lateritic layer, weathered/fractured layer and fresh basement). The geoelectric parameters of the overlying layers across the area were used to assess the vulnerability of the underlying aquifers to near-surface contaminants with the aid of vulnerability maps generated. Three models were compared by maps using geo-electrically derived models; longitudinal conductance, GOD (groundwater occurrence, overlying lithology and depth to the aquifer) and GLSI (geoelectric layer susceptibility indexing). The total longitudinal conductance map shows the north central part of the study area as a weakly protected (0.1-0.19) area, while the northern and southern parts have poor protective capacity (septic tank, refuse dump should be cited far from groundwater development area.

  11. Groundwater vulnerability to climate change: A review of the assessment methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aslam, Rana Ammar; Shrestha, Sangam; Pandey, Vishnu Prasad

    2018-01-15

    Impacts of climate change on water resources, especially groundwater, can no longer be hidden. These impacts are further exacerbated under the integrated influence of climate variability, climate change and anthropogenic activities. The degree of impact varies according to geographical location and other factors leading systems and regions towards different levels of vulnerability. In the recent past, several attempts have been made in various regions across the globe to quantify the impacts and consequences of climate and non-climate factors in terms of vulnerability to groundwater resources. Firstly, this paper provides a structured review of the available literature, aiming to critically analyse and highlight the limitations and knowledge gaps involved in vulnerability (of groundwater to climate change) assessment methodologies. The effects of indicator choice and the importance of including composite indicators are then emphasised. A new integrated approach for the assessment of groundwater vulnerability to climate change is proposed to successfully address those limitations. This review concludes that the choice of indicator has a significant role in defining the reliability of computed results. The effect of an individual indicator is also apparent but the consideration of a combination (variety) of indicators may give more realistic results. Therefore, in future, depending upon the local conditions and scale of the study, indicators from various groups should be chosen. Furthermore, there are various assumptions involved in previous methodologies, which limit their scope by introducing uncertainty in the calculated results. These limitations can be overcome by implementing the proposed approach. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Transactional approach in assessment of operational performance of companies in transport infrastructure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dubrovsky, V.; Yaroshevich, N.; Kuzmin, E.

    2016-07-01

    Offer an alternative method to assess operational performance of companies in transport infrastructure of a region by making a comparison between transaction costs. The method is supposed to be a cross-functional and possibly applied to an analysis of economic entities of a different order (country, region, sector, companies) while evaluating “viscosity” / complexity of the outside and the inside. The paper includes an analysis of various methodological approaches to assess a development level of the transport infrastructure in a region. Within the author's approach and for purposed of the research, an index of transaction capacity or the transactionalness index is proposed, which determines a level of transaction costs calculated against the cost of production and revenue. The approach is piloted using the region-wise consolidated financial data of companies involved in the Russian transport infrastructure for 2005/2013. The proposed alternative way to measure corporate operating efficiency has proved its academic consistency. A specific comparison between the transaction costs using the transactionalness index allows first to identify companies or regions/sectors, where there is excess complexity of economical communication in bargaining. Secondly, the index does not only point out indirectly to a degree of development in the institutional environment, but also the infrastructure (the transport one in the example given). Third, the transactionalness level may say of uncertainty and risks. As an addition to theoretical and methodological aspects of transaction costs, the authors justify an approach to their size estimation, as well as their differentiation dividing them into two groups: those of a natural type and a background type. In a course of their discussion, the authors have concluded that there are such transaction costs in place, which are standard in a manner of speaking. There is a discussion whether it is scientifically reasonable to use an

  13. Assessing the dynamic material criticality of infrastructure transitions: A case of low carbon electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roelich, Katy; Dawson, David A.; Purnell, Phil; Knoeri, Christof; Revell, Ruairi; Busch, Jonathan; Steinberger, Julia K.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We present a method to analyse material criticality of infrastructure transitions. • Criticality is defined as the potential for, and exposure to, supply disruption. • Our method is dynamic reducing the probability of lock-in to at-risk technologies. • We show that supply disruption potential is reducing but exposure is increasing. - Abstract: Decarbonisation of existing infrastructure systems requires a dynamic roll-out of technology at an unprecedented scale. The potential disruption in supply of critical materials could endanger such a transition to low-carbon infrastructure and, by extension, compromise energy security more broadly because low carbon technologies are reliant on these materials in a way that fossil-fuelled energy infrastructure is not. Criticality is currently defined as the combination of the potential for supply disruption and the exposure of a system of interest to that disruption. We build on this definition and develop a dynamic approach to quantifying criticality, which monitors the change in criticality during the transition towards a low-carbon infrastructure goal. This allows us to assess the relative risk of different technology pathways to reach a particular goal and reduce the probability of being ‘locked in’ to currently attractive but potentially future-critical technologies. To demonstrate, we apply our method to criticality of the proposed UK electricity system transition, with a focus on neodymium. We anticipate that the supply disruption potential of neodymium will decrease by almost 30% by 2050; however, our results show the criticality of low carbon electricity production increases ninefold over this period, as a result of increasing exposure to neodymium-reliant technologies

  14. Tennessee Public Infrastructure Needs Inventory Assessment for FY 1998. A Commission Report to the 101st General Assembly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Harry A.; Norman, John F, .; McClure, C. Bennett, II

    This report represents the first effort by any public or private agency or organization to provide a comprehensive assessment of Tennessee's public infrastructure needs. Hundreds of local government officials and private citizens contributed information to this research. The main participants in the infrastructure inventory were the local…

  15. Data related uncertainty in near-surface vulnerability assessments for agrochemicals in the San Joaquin Valley.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loague, Keith; Blanke, James S; Mills, Melissa B; Diaz-Diaz, Ricardo; Corwin, Dennis L

    2012-01-01

    Precious groundwater resources across the United States have been contaminated due to decades-long nonpoint-source applications of agricultural chemicals. Assessing the impact of past, ongoing, and future chemical applications for large-scale agriculture operations is timely for designing best-management practices to prevent subsurface pollution. Presented here are the results from a series of regional-scale vulnerability assessments for the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Two relatively simple indices, the retardation and attenuation factors, are used to estimate near-surface vulnerabilities based on the chemical properties of 32 pesticides and the variability of both soil characteristics and recharge rates across the SJV. The uncertainties inherit to these assessments, derived from the uncertainties within the chemical and soil data bases, are estimated using first-order analyses. The results are used to screen and rank the chemicals based on mobility and leaching potential, without and with consideration of data-related uncertainties. Chemicals of historic high visibility in the SJV (e.g., atrazine, DBCP [dibromochloropropane], ethylene dibromide, and simazine) are ranked in the top half of those considered. Vulnerability maps generated for atrazine and DBCP, featured for their legacy status in the study area, clearly illustrate variations within and across the assessments. For example, the leaching potential is greater for DBCP than for atrazine, the leaching potential for DBCP is greater for the spatially variable recharge values than for the average recharge rate, and the leaching potentials for both DBCP and atrazine are greater for the annual recharge estimates than for the monthly recharge estimates. The data-related uncertainties identified in this study can be significant, targeting opportunities for improving future vulnerability assessments. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America

  16. Assessing the physical vulnerability of check dams through an empirical damage index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Dell'Agnese

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available A comprehensive analysis of flood risk in mountain streams has to include an assessment of the vulnerability of the protection systems, in addition to an assessment of the vulnerability of the constructed environment on alluvial fans and floodplains. Structures forming the protection systems are of a dual nature, i.e. they are designed to mitigate natural process-related hazards and, on the other hand, are prone to be damaged during their lifecycle by the same processes they should mitigate. Therefore, their effectiveness declines over time. Hence, the knowledge of how effectively control structures perform is essential for risk management. A procedure was developed to assess the physical vulnerability of check dams based on empirical evidence collected in South Tyrol, Northern Italy. A damage index defined on pre- and postevent comparisons of check dam conditions was evaluated for 362 structures in 18 mountain streams along with the relevant processes and the structural characteristics affecting it. Although the available dataset did not allow conclusive functional relationships between damage index and impact variables to be established, it was possible to assess the average expected residual functionality of check dams according to structure characteristics, and event type and intensity. These results may help plan appropriate check dam maintenance.

  17. Comparative analysis of climate change vulnerability assessments. Lessons from Tunisia and Indonesia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hammill, Anne; Bizikova, Livia; Dekens, Julie; McCandless, Matthew

    2013-03-15

    Vulnerability assessments (VAs) are central to shaping climate change adaptation decisions. They help to define the nature and extent of the threat that may harm a given human or ecological system, providing a basis for devising measures that will minimize or avoid this harm. Yet the wide variety of VA approaches can be confusing for practitioners, creating uncertainty about the ''right'' way to assess vulnerability. In an effort to provide some guidance on designing and conducting VAs, this paper reviews and compares VAs undertaken in Indonesia and Tunisia to distill key approaches, components and lessons. It begins with a general overview of definitions, approaches and challenges with conducting VAs, and then proposes a framework for analyzing and comparing them. The framework looks at four components of VAs: (1) Framing: where do we come from? (2) Process of conducting the VAs: how does it work? (3) Inputs: what is needed? (4) Outputs: what does it tell us? The framework is then applied to analyze the assessments carried out in Tunisia and Indonesia, from their respective framings of vulnerability to the outputs of the process. The report then concludes with observations on differences and similarities between the VAs, as well as lessons learned that can inform the design and execution of future assessments.

  18. Comparative analysis of climate change vulnerability assessments. Lessons from Tunisia and Indonesia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammill, Anne; Bizikova, Livia; Dekens, Julie; McCandless, Matthew

    2013-03-01

    Vulnerability assessments (VAs) are central to shaping climate change adaptation decisions. They help to define the nature and extent of the threat that may harm a given human or ecological system, providing a basis for devising measures that will minimize or avoid this harm. Yet the wide variety of VA approaches can be confusing for practitioners, creating uncertainty about the ''right'' way to assess vulnerability. In an effort to provide some guidance on designing and conducting VAs, this paper reviews and compares VAs undertaken in Indonesia and Tunisia to distill key approaches, components and lessons. It begins with a general overview of definitions, approaches and challenges with conducting VAs, and then proposes a framework for analyzing and comparing them. The framework looks at four components of VAs: (1) Framing: where do we come from? (2) Process of conducting the VAs: how does it work? (3) Inputs: what is needed? (4) Outputs: what does it tell us? The framework is then applied to analyze the assessments carried out in Tunisia and Indonesia, from their respective framings of vulnerability to the outputs of the process. The report then concludes with observations on differences and similarities between the VAs, as well as lessons learned that can inform the design and execution of future assessments.

  19. Assessing the Impacts of Decadal Socio-Agro-Hydro Climatic Variations on Agricultural Vulnerability over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohanty, M. P.; Sharma, T.; Ghosh, S.; Karmakar, S.

    2017-12-01

    Among both rice and wheat producing countries, India holds one of the major global shares in terms of production. However, with rising population, economic variability, and increasing food demand, it has become indispensable to strategically assess the food security of the nation, particularly under changing climatic conditions. This can be achieved by improving knowledge on the impacts of climate change on crop growth and yield through understanding the current status of agricultural vulnerability and quantifying its decadal changes. The present research focuses on assessing the observed decadal changes in agricultural vulnerability over India, at a district-scale. In the study, the deliberation of multiple climatic, hydrologic, agricultural indicators will majorly facilitate evaluating their direct/indirect influence on the crop production. In addition, a set of socio-economic indicators will also be considered to understand the attribution of these factors on the change in agricultural vulnerability. Here, these indicators will be integrated into a multivariate data envelopment analysis (DEA) framework to derive relative efficiency of each unit or district in crop production, which will be further transformed into a well-grounded agricultural vulnerability map. It has become essential to understand the influence of these indicators on agriculture, given that the extended periods of excessive/no rainfall or high/low temperature can alter the water cycle and hence cause stress on the agroecosystem. Likewise, change in the population density, main and marginal cultivators, main and marginal agriculture labours, improvement in management practices, or increase in power supply for agricultural use, can directly affect the food security of the region. Hence, this study will undoubtedly assist the decision-makers/strategists by highlighting the agriculturally vulnerable regions over India. Consequently, it will reassure the farmers to define bottom-up approaches in

  20. What if quality of damage data is poor: an Entity-Vulnerability approach for flood vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naso, Susanna; Chen, Albert S.; Djordjević, Slobodan; Aronica, Giuseppe T.

    2015-04-01

    The classical approach to flood defence, aimed at reducing the probability of flooding through hard defences, has been substituted by flood risk management approach which accepts the idea of coping with floods and aims at reducing not only the probability of flooding, but also the consequences. In this view, the concept of vulnerability becomes central, such as the (non-structural) measures for its increment. On 22 November 2011, an exceptional rainstorm hit the Longano catchment (North-East part of Sicily, Italy) producing local heavy rainfall, mud-debris flow and flash flooding. The flash flood involved property, buildings, roads and more than 100 commercial estates have suffered severe damages. Some days after the event, the municipality provided people forms to describe the damages that occurred on their properties. Unfortunately, the lack of common guidelines in compiling them, their coarseness and the impossibility to have monetary information on them (such us damage data from previous events), did not allow the implementation of a detailed damage analysis. What we're developing in this work is a method for a qualitative evaluation of the consequences of floods, based on vulnerability curves for structures and classes of entities at risk. The difficulty in deriving the vulnerability curves for different building typologies, as function of the water depth, was due to the lack of quantitative information both on damages caused by previous events and on buildings' value. To solve the problem we submitted a questionnaire to a team of experts asking for an estimation of building damages to different hypothetical inundation depths. What we wanted to obtain was deriving the vulnerability data from technicians' experience, believing in the fundamental importance of the collaboration among research and professional engineers. Through the elaboration and the synthesis of the experts' estimations we derived the vulnerability curves for different building typologies and

  1. Developing a national food defense guideline based on a vulnerability assessment of intentional food contamination in Japanese food factories using the CARVER+Shock vulnerability assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanagawa, Yoshiyuki; Akahane, Manabu; Hasegawa, Atsushi; Yamaguchi, Kentaro; Onitake, Kazuo; Takaya, Satoshi; Yamamoto, Shigeki; Imamura, Tomoaki

    2014-12-01

    The awareness of food terrorism has increased following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in New York City, United States, and many measures and policies dealing with this issue have been established worldwide. Suspected deliberate food-poisoning crimes have occurred in Japan, although they are not regarded as acts of food terrorism. One area of concern is that the small- to medium-sized companies that dominate Japan's food industry are extremely vulnerable to deliberate food poisoning. We conducted a literature research on food defense measures undertaken by the World Health Organization and in the United States and Europe. Using the Carver+Shock vulnerability assessment tool, eight food factories and related facilities in Japan were evaluated and we found the level of awareness of food defense to be low and the measures inappropriate. On the basis of this evaluation, we developed a set of guidelines that Japanese food companies can use to help develop their food defense strategies and to serve as a reference in considering specific measures.

  2. Assessing urban strategies for reducing the impacts of extreme weather on infrastructure networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pregnolato, Maria; Ford, Alistair; Robson, Craig; Glenis, Vassilis; Barr, Stuart; Dawson, Richard

    2016-05-01

    Critical infrastructure networks, including transport, are crucial to the social and economic function of urban areas but are at increasing risk from natural hazards. Minimizing disruption to these networks should form part of a strategy to increase urban resilience. A framework for assessing the disruption from flood events to transport systems is presented that couples a high-resolution urban flood model with transport modelling and network analytics to assess the impacts of extreme rainfall events, and to quantify the resilience value of different adaptation options. A case study in Newcastle upon Tyne in the UK shows that both green roof infrastructure and traditional engineering interventions such as culverts or flood walls can reduce transport disruption from flooding. The magnitude of these benefits depends on the flood event and adaptation strategy, but for the scenarios considered here 3-22% improvements in city-wide travel times are achieved. The network metric of betweenness centrality, weighted by travel time, is shown to provide a rapid approach to identify and prioritize the most critical locations for flood risk management intervention. Protecting just the top ranked critical location from flooding provides an 11% reduction in person delays. A city-wide deployment of green roofs achieves a 26% reduction, and although key routes still flood, the benefits of this strategy are more evenly distributed across the transport network as flood depths are reduced across the model domain. Both options should form part of an urban flood risk management strategy, but this method can be used to optimize investment and target limited resources at critical locations, enabling green infrastructure strategies to be gradually implemented over the longer term to provide city-wide benefits. This framework provides a means of prioritizing limited financial resources to improve resilience. This is particularly important as flood management investments must typically exceed

  3. Structured Assessment Approach: a microcomputer-based insider-vulnerability analysis tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patenaude, C.J.; Sicherman, A.; Sacks, I.J.

    1986-01-01

    The Structured Assessment Approach (SAA) was developed to help assess the vulnerability of safeguards systems to insiders in a staged manner. For physical security systems, the SAA identifies possible diversion paths which are not safeguarded under various facility operating conditions and insiders who could defeat the system via direct access, collusion or indirect tampering. For material control and accounting systems, the SAA identifies those who could block the detection of a material loss or diversion via data falsification or equipment tampering. The SAA, originally desinged to run on a mainframe computer, has been converted to run on a personal computer. Many features have been added to simplify and facilitate its use for conducting vulnerability analysis. For example, the SAA input, which is a text-like data file, is easily readable and can provide documentation of facility safeguards and assumptions used for the analysis

  4. Comprehensive vulnerability assessment method for nodes considering anti-interference ability and influence

    Science.gov (United States)

    LUO, Jianchun; WANG, Yunyu; YANG, Jun; RAN, hong; PENG, Xiaodong; HUANG, Ming; FENG, Hao; LIU, Meijun

    2018-03-01

    The vulnerability assessment of power grid is of great significance in the current research. Power system faces many kinds of uncertainty factors, and the disturbance caused by them has become one of the main factors which restrict the safe operation of power grid. To solve this problem, considering the anti-interference ability of the system when the system is disturbed and the effect of the system when the node is out of operation, a set of index to reflect the anti-interference ability and the influence of nodes are set up. On this basis, a new comprehensive vulnerability assessment method of nodes is put forward by using super efficiency data envelopment analysis to scientific integration. Finally, the simulative results of IEEE30-bus system indicated that the proposed model is rational and valid.

  5. Assessment of vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change and adaptation planning in Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matin, M. A.; Chitale, V. S.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding ecosystem level vulnerability of forests and dependence of local communities on these ecosystems is a first step towards developing effective adaptation strategies. As forests are important components of livelihoods system for a large percentage of the population in the Himalayan region, they offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities. Increased frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress, changes in winter ecology, and pest and fire outbreaksunder climate change scenarios could fundamentally alter the composition, productivity and biogeography of forests affecting the potential ecosystem services offered and forest-based livelihoods. Hence, forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and the development of a knowledgebase to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is identified as an urgent need. Climate change vulnerability is measured as a function of exposure, sensitivity and the adaptive capacity of the system towards climate variability and extreme events. Effective adaptation to climate change depends on the availability of two important prerequisites: a) information on what, where, and how to adapt, and b) availability of resources to implement the adaptation measures. In the present study, we introduce the concept of two way multitier approach, which can support effective identification and implementation of adaptation measures in Nepal and the framework can be replicated in other countries in the HKH region. The assessment of overall vulnerability of forests comprises of two components: 1) understanding the relationship between exposure and sensitivity and positive feedback from adaptive capacity of forests; 2) quantifying the dependence of local communities on these ecosystems. We use climate datasets from Bioclim and biophysical products from MODIS, alongwith field datasets. We report that most of the forests along the high altitude areas and few

  6. A Preliminary Assessment of Social Vulnerability in Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazra, Sugata; Islam, Nabiul

    2017-04-01

    The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta has a high population density and is exposed to rapid environmental changes making it one of the most stressed deltas in the world. The low-lying coastal areas of the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta comprise 19 coastal districts of Bangladesh and two districts in India with significant land areas within 5 meters of sea level has a population of more than 50 million people at an average population density of 1100 people/km2. This population is exposed to a range of hazards such as severe cyclones, coastal erosion, and salinization, exacerbated by climate change and subsidence which imply severe stress on the resource dependent community of this region. This situation is further complicated by poverty and limited social well-being such as poor access to education/ health/ drinking water/ sanitation facilities, and lack of food and energy security. Thus assessing social vulnerability can help to understand which communities are susceptible to environmental change and guide adaptation actions to address these threats. This preliminary study aims to construct a socio-economic index by assessing the social vulnerability of coastal communities of GBM Delta taking consistent and common secondary data from the Census of India and the Bangladesh Bureau of Statisticsand applyinga Principle Component Analysis(PCA) methodology. Several statistical tests like Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) have also been used to assess the appropriateness of using PCA. Among the selected common indicators, five major components are found to explain majority of the total variation of social vulnerability across the delta: (1) poverty, (2) dependency ratio, (3) agriculture dependency, (4) lack of sanitation and (5) existence of mud houses. The most important observation is the existence of a social vulnerability gradient across the coast. In other words, socially marginalised and vulnerable communities are found on the Delta margin in both India and

  7. A new approach to flood vulnerability assessment for historic buildings in England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, V.; D'Ayala, D.

    2014-05-01

    The recent increase in frequency and severity of flooding in the UK has led to a shift in the perception of risk associated with flood hazards. This has extended to the conservation community, and the risks posed to historic structures that suffer from flooding are particularly concerning for those charged with preserving and maintaining such buildings. In order to fully appraise the risks in a manner appropriate to the complex issue of preservation, a new methodology is presented here that studies the nature of the vulnerability of such structures, and places it in the context of risk assessment, accounting for the vulnerable object and the subsequent exposure of that object to flood hazards. The testing of the methodology is carried out using three urban case studies and the results of the survey analysis provide guidance on the development of fragility curves for historic structures exposed to flooding. This occurs through appraisal of vulnerability indicators related to building form, structural and fabric integrity, and preservation of architectural and archaeological values. Key findings of the work include determining the applicability of these indicators to fragility analysis, and the determination of the relative vulnerability of the three case study sites.

  8. Land Use Management by Assessing Aquifer Vulnerability in Khovayes Plain Using the DRASTIC and SINTACS Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Mousavi

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Land use change is a gradual process that entails dire consequences for groundwater quality and quantity. Quantitative changes in groundwater can be usually monitored by controlling the annual groundwater balance. Monitoring qualitative changes in groundwater, however, is both time-consuming and expensive. DRASTIC and SINTACS models exploit aquifer properties to predict its vulnerability. In this study, aquifer vulnerability assessment was performed by the DRASTIC & SINTACS models for future land use management in Khovayes, southwest Iran. The DRASTIC Model is based on hydrological and hydrogeological parameters involved in contaminant transport. SINTACS parameters are the same as those of the DRASTIC model, except that weighting and ranking the parameters are more flexible. Once vulnerability maps of the study region had been prepared, they were verified against the nitrate map. A correlation coefficient of 0.4 was obtained between the DRASTIC map and the nitrate one while the correlation between the SINTACS and the nitrate maps was found to be 0.8. Map removal and single-parameter sensitivity analyses were carried out, which showed the southwestern stretches of the study area as the region with the highest risk of vulnerability.

  9. Groundwater vulnerability assessment to assist the measurement planning of the water framework directive - a practical approach with stakeholders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkhoff, K.

    2007-05-01

    An evaluation scheme is presented in this paper which can be used to assess groundwater vulnerability according to the requirements of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). The evaluation scheme results in a groundwater vulnerability map identifying areas of high, medium and low vulnerability, as necessary for the measurement planning of the WFD. The evaluation scheme is based on the definition of the vulnerability of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It considers exposure, sensitivity and the adaptive capacity of the region. The adaptive capacity is evaluated in an actors' platform, which was constituted for the region in the PartizipA ("Participative modelling, Actor and Ecosystem Analysis in Regions with Intensive Agriculture") project. As a result of the vulnerability assessment, 21% of the catchment area was classified as being highly vulnerable, whereas 73% has medium vulnerability and 6% has low vulnerability. Thus, a groundwater vulnerability assessment approach is presented, which can be used in practice on a catchment scale for the WFD measurement planning.

  10. Assessing socioeconomic vulnerability to dengue fever in Cali, Colombia: statistical vs expert-based modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Hagenlocher, Michael; Delmelle, Eric; Casas, Irene; Kienberger, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    Background As a result of changes in climatic conditions and greater resistance to insecticides, many regions across the globe, including Colombia, have been facing a resurgence of vector-borne diseases, and dengue fever in particular. Timely information on both (1) the spatial distribution of the disease, and (2) prevailing vulnerabilities of the population are needed to adequately plan targeted preventive intervention. We propose a methodology for the spatial assessment of current socioecon...

  11. Assessment of socio-economic potential of regions for placement of the logistic infrastructure objects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandr Nelevich Rakhmangulov

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Currently, at the regional markets, there is a disproportion between the growing demand for transportation and logistics services and the availability of facilities needed for their implementation, which is because the high logistics costs and does not meet the strategic objectives of the country to create a common economic space. The article describes the system of market factors that have the most significant influence on the distribution of logistics facilities. Study and evaluation of potential changes in the region of logistics facility disposition are proposed to perform using simulation techniques and statistical data analysis. The article presents the engineered multivariate statistical models that control the kind and effect of correlation between socio-economic development factors of regions, as well as a simulation model, which allows to assess the dynamics of these factors and predict demand for logistics infrastructure facilities. The choice of region (subject dislocation of the logistics center is proposed to realize by the developed technique based on the calculation of the integrated index that takes into account differences in the level of socio-economic and infrastructural development of the regions. This technique in conjunction with a simulation model is applicable to a variety of administrative and territorial levels (region, city and allows to take into account both the current demand in the logistics infrastructure and demand dynamics. The technique given in the article can be used to assess the level of attractiveness of the Russian Federation in the development of public and private investment projects for the development of logistics infrastructure

  12. Assessment of the Potential for Privatizing Fuel Infrastructure at Military Installations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gallay, David

    1998-01-01

    .... The military services are responsible for the maintenance and repair of the fuel infrastructure on their installations, and DLA is responsible for the infrastructures' renovation or major construction...

  13. Towards a more sustainable transport infrastructure: how spatial geological data can be utilized to improve early stage Life cycle assessment of road infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsson, Caroline; Miliutenko, Sofiia; Björklund, Anna; Mörtberg, Ulla; Olofsson, Bo; Toller, Susanna

    2017-04-01

    Environmental impacts during the life cycle stages of transport infrastructure are substantial, including among other greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as resource and energy use. For transport infrastructure to be sustainable, such issues need to be integrated in the planning process. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is required by the European Union (EU) in order to ensure that all environmental aspects are considered during planning of road infrastructure projects. As a part of this process, the European Commission has suggested the use of the tool life cycle assessment (LCA) for assessing life cycle energy use and GHG emissions. When analyzing life cycle impacts of the road infrastructure itself, it was shown that earthworks and materials used for the road construction have a big share in the total energy use and GHG emissions. Those aspects are largely determined by the geological conditions at the site of construction: parameters such as soil thickness, slope, bedrock quality and soil type. The geological parameters determine the amounts of earthworks (i.e. volumes of soil and rock that will be excavated and blasted), transportation need for excavated materials as well as the availability of building materials. The study presents a new geographic information system (GIS)-based approach for utilizing spatial geological data in three dimensions (i.e. length, width and depth) in order to improve estimates on earthworks during the early stages of road infrastructure planning. Three main methodological steps were undertaken: mass balance calculation, life cycle inventory analysis and spatial mapping of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy use. The proposed GIS-based approach was later evaluated by comparing with the actual values of extracted material of a real road construction project. The results showed that the estimate of filling material was the most accurate, while the estimate for excavated soil and blasted rock had a wide variation from

  14. Assessing water resources vulnerability and resilience of southern Taiwan to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Hsu Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Water resources management has become more challenging in Taiwan due to rapid socio-economic development and the complications of climate change. This study developed a systematic procedure for assessing water resources vulnerability and resilience with an integrated tool, TaiWAP, including climate change scenarios, a weather generator, a hydrological model, and system dynamic models. Five assessment indicators, including two for vulnerability, two for resilience, and one for availability were used to quantify changes in water resources and improvements after implementing adaption measures. Each indicator was presented with 3 grades, namely low, medium, and high. Water resources vulnerability and resilience for Tainan City in southern Taiwan were evaluated. Insufficient water supply facilities capacity is the major weakness causing low resilience. Water resources allocation flexibility is limited by substantial agricultural water demands. A total of 9 adaption measures and combinations of measures were assessed. Desalination plant implementation can steadily supply public water to lessen system failure duration. Although agricultural water conservation and fallow land can greatly reduce water demand, fallow compensation is a potential cost. When food security is considered, reducing irrigation leakage will be a better adaption measure to both water and agriculture stakeholders. Both agriculture water conservation and cropping systems adjustment have cross-spatial flexibilities. The combination of desalination, reservoirs and public water conservation provide the most beneficial effects in reducing climate change impact.

  15. Assessment of vulnerability to storm induced flood hazard along diverse coastline settings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valchev Nikolay

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available European coasts suffer notably from hazards caused by low-probability and high-impact hydrometeorological events. The aim of the study is to assess in probabilistic terms the magnitude of storm‐induced flooding hazard along Varna regional coast (Bulgaria, western Black Sea and to identify susceptible coastal sectors (hotspots. The study is performed employing the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF developed within EU FP7 RISC-KIT project. It constitutes a screening process that allows estimation of relevant hazard intensities, extents and potential receptors’ exposure vulnerability within predefined sectors. Total water level was the chief property considered for calculation of coastal flooding hazard. It was estimated using Holman model (for sandy beaches and EurOtop formulation (for artificial or rocky slopes. Resulting values were subjected to Extreme Value Analysis to establish that the best fitting distribution corresponds to Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Furthermore, hazard extents were modelled by means of bathtubbing or overwash estimation in order to form the flooding hazard indicator. Land use, social vulnerability, transport systems, utilities and business settings were considered as exposure indicators. Finally, potential risk was assessed by coastal indices following an index-based methodology, which combines hazard and exposure indicators into a single index, thereby providing base for comparison of coastal sectors’ vulnerability. The study found that the concentration of hotspots is highest in Varna Bay.

  16. Assessment on vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea level rise in the Yangtze Estuary, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, L.; Ge, Z.; Zhang, L.

    2013-12-01

    The Yangtze Delta in China is vital economic hubs in terms of settlement, industry, agriculture, trade and tourism as well as of great environmental significance. In recent decades, the prospect of climate change, in particular sea level rise and its effects on low lying coastal areas have generated worldwide attention to coastal ecosystems. Coastal wetlands, as important parts of coastal ecosystem, are particularly sensitive to sea level rise. To study the responses of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisites for securing the coastal zone ecosystems. In this study, taking the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary as a case study, the potential impacts of sea-level rise to coastal wetlands habitat were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model. The key indicators, such as the sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, elevation, daily inundation duration of habitat and sedimentation rate, were selected to build a vulnerability assessment system according to the IPCC definition of vulnerability, i.e. the aspects of exposure, sensitivity and adaptation. A quantitatively spatial assessment method on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability. The vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the sea level rise rate of the present trend and IPCC A1F1 scenario were performed for three sets of projections of short-term (2030s), mid-term (2050s) and long-term (2100s). The results showed that at the present trend of sea level rise rate of 0.26 cm/a, 92.3 % of the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary was in the EVI score of 0 in 2030s, i.e. the impact of sea level rise on habitats/species of coastal wetlands was negligible. While 7.4 % and 0.3 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of

  17. An assessment of groundwater potential and vulnerability in the Upper Manyame Sub-Catchment of Zimbabwe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misi, Alfred; Gumindoga, Webster; Hoko, Zvikomborero

    2018-06-01

    Severe depletion and pollution of groundwater resources are of rising concern in the Upper Manyame Sub-Catchment (UMSC); Zimbabwe's most urbanised sub-catchment. Despite groundwater playing a pivotal role in the provision of potable water in the sub-catchment, it is under serious threat from anthropogenic stressors which include sewage effluents and leachates from landfills, among others. Inadequate scientific knowledge pertaining to the spatio-temporal variability of groundwater storage and vulnerability in the UMSC is further compromising its sustainability. Therefore, comprehensive assessments of UMSC's Groundwater Potential (GP) and vulnerability are crucial for its effective management. This study assessed GP and vulnerability in the UMSC using Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing techniques. Groundwater conditioning factors: geology, slope, land-use, drainage density, topographic index, altitude, recharge and rainfall were used to develop GP zones. Validation of the GP map was done by correlating estimated GP with historical borehole yields. An assessment of groundwater vulnerability was done at micro-catchment level (Marimba) using the GOD model; a three parameter Index Overlay Model. Marimba is the most urbanised and has the second highest borehole density. It also exhibits similar landuse characteristics as the UMSC. Furthermore, groundwater quality in Marimba was assessed from 15 sampling sites. Fifteen drinking water parameters were analysed based on the standard methods for Water and Wastewater Examination. The potability of groundwater was then assessed by comparing the measured water quality parameters with the Standards Association of Zimbabwe (SAZ) drinking water standards and/or WHO guidelines for drinking water. Repeated Measures ANOVA and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were used to assess the spatio-temporal variations in groundwater quality and to identify key parameters, respectively. About 72% (2725.9 km2) of the UMSC was

  18. Coastal vulnerability assessment using Fuzzy Logic and Bayesian Belief Network approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentini, Emiliana; Nguyen Xuan, Alessandra; Filipponi, Federico; Taramelli, Andrea

    2017-04-01

    Natural hazards such as sea surge are threatening low-lying coastal plains. In order to deal with disturbances a deeper understanding of benefits deriving from ecosystem services assessment, management and planning can contribute to enhance the resilience of coastal systems. In this frame assessing current and future vulnerability is a key concern of many Systems Of Systems SOS (social, ecological, institutional) that deals with several challenges like the definition of Essential Variables (EVs) able to synthesize the required information, the assignment of different weight to be attributed to each considered variable, the selection of method for combining the relevant variables. It is widely recognized that ecosystems contribute to human wellbeing and then their conservation increases the resilience capacities and could play a key role in reducing climate related risk and thus physical and economic losses. A way to fully exploit ecosystems potential, i.e. their so called ecopotential (see H2020 EU funded project "ECOPOTENTIAL"), is the Ecosystem based Adaptation (EbA): the use of ecosystem services as part of an adaptation strategy. In order to provide insight in understanding regulating ecosystem services to surge and which variables influence them and to make the best use of available data and information (EO products, in situ data and modelling), we propose a multi-component surge vulnerability assessment, focusing on coastal sandy dunes as natural barriers. The aim is to combine together eco-geomorphological and socio-economic variables with the hazard component on the base of different approaches: 1) Fuzzy Logic; 2) Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). The Fuzzy Logic approach is very useful to get a spatialized information and it can easily combine variables coming from different sources. It provides information on vulnerability moving along-shore and across-shore (beach-dune transect), highlighting the variability of vulnerability conditions in the spatial

  19. How useful are Swiss flood insurance data for flood vulnerability assessments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röthlisberger, Veronika; Bernet, Daniel; Zischg, Andreas; Keiler, Margreth

    2015-04-01

    vulnerability and resilience assessments. For instance, the collation of insurance loss data with event documentations containing information on flood intensity allows to develop damage curves. Flood damage curves are fundamental for many risk analysis methodologies but to date only few are published and the spatial and temporal scope of their applicability is subject of discussion. Another possibility of using insurance data lies in the field of assessment exposure, where the analysis of comprehensive insurance portfolio data can improve the understanding of the physical but also the socio-economical vulnerability of a society. The poster spotlights key opportunities and challenges scientists are facing when using insurance data for flood vulnerability assessments.

  20. Assessment of municipal infrastructure development and its critical influencing factors in urban China: A FA and STIRPAT approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Li

    Full Text Available Municipal infrastructure is a fundamental facility for the normal operation and development of an urban city and is of significance for the stable progress of sustainable urbanization around the world, especially in developing countries. Based on the municipal infrastructure data of the prefecture-level cities in China, municipal infrastructure development is assessed comprehensively using a FA (factor analysis model, and then the stochastic model STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology is examined to investigate key factors that influence municipal infrastructure of cities in various stages of urbanization and economy. This study indicates that the municipal infrastructure development in urban China demonstrates typical characteristics of regional differentiation, in line with the economic development pattern. Municipal infrastructure development in cities is primarily influenced by income, industrialization and investment. For China and similar developing countries under transformation, national public investment remains the primary driving force of economy as well as the key influencing factor of municipal infrastructure. Contribution from urbanization and the relative consumption level, and the tertiary industry is still scanty, which is a crux issue for many developing countries under transformation. With economic growth and the transformation requirements, the influence of the conventional factors such as public investment and industrialization on municipal infrastructure development would be expected to decline, meanwhile, other factors like the consumption and tertiary industry driven model and the innovation society can become key contributors to municipal infrastructure sustainability.

  1. Assessment of municipal infrastructure development and its critical influencing factors in urban China: A FA and STIRPAT approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yu; Zheng, Ji; Li, Fei; Jin, Xueting; Xu, Chen

    2017-01-01

    Municipal infrastructure is a fundamental facility for the normal operation and development of an urban city and is of significance for the stable progress of sustainable urbanization around the world, especially in developing countries. Based on the municipal infrastructure data of the prefecture-level cities in China, municipal infrastructure development is assessed comprehensively using a FA (factor analysis) model, and then the stochastic model STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology) is examined to investigate key factors that influence municipal infrastructure of cities in various stages of urbanization and economy. This study indicates that the municipal infrastructure development in urban China demonstrates typical characteristics of regional differentiation, in line with the economic development pattern. Municipal infrastructure development in cities is primarily influenced by income, industrialization and investment. For China and similar developing countries under transformation, national public investment remains the primary driving force of economy as well as the key influencing factor of municipal infrastructure. Contribution from urbanization and the relative consumption level, and the tertiary industry is still scanty, which is a crux issue for many developing countries under transformation. With economic growth and the transformation requirements, the influence of the conventional factors such as public investment and industrialization on municipal infrastructure development would be expected to decline, meanwhile, other factors like the consumption and tertiary industry driven model and the innovation society can become key contributors to municipal infrastructure sustainability.

  2. Identification and assessment of potential vulnerabilities in the poultry meat production chain to dangerous agents and substances

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schwägele, F.C.; Andrée, S.; Beraquet, N.; Castrillon, M.; Winkel, C.; Garforth, D.; Cnossen, H.J.; Lucas Luijckx, N.B.; Ayalew, G.

    2009-01-01

    The specific targeted European research project ΣChain (2006) addresses existing as well as potential vulnerabilities within food chains. One of the food chains within the focus of ΣChain is dealing with poultry meat. Fundamental for the assessment of potential vulnerabilities in the chain is basic

  3. Vulnerability assessment of archaeological sites to earthquake hazard: An indicator based method integrating spatial and temporal aspects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Despina Minos-Minopoulos

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Across the world, numerous sites of cultural heritage value are at risk from a variety of human-induced and natural hazards such as war and earthquakes. Here we present and test a novel indicator-based method for assessing the vulnerability of archaeological sites to earthquakes. Vulnerability is approached as a dynamic element assessed through a combination of spatial and temporal parameters. The spatial parameters examine the susceptibility of the sites to the secondary Earthquake Environmental Effects of ground liquefaction, landslides and tsunami and are expressed through the Spatial Susceptibility Index (SSi. Parameters of physical vulnerability, economic importance and visitors density examine the temporal vulnerability of the sites expressed through the Temporal Vulnerability Index (TVi. The equally weighted sum of the spatial and temporal indexes represents the total Archaeological Site Vulnerability Index (A.S.V.I.. The A.S.V.I method is applied at 16 archaeological sites across Greece, allowing an assessment of their vulnerability. This then allows the establishment of a regional and national priority list for considering future risk mitigation. Results indicate that i the majority of the sites have low to moderate vulnerability to earthquake hazard, ii Neratzia Fortress on Kos and Heraion on Samos are characterised as highly vulnerable and should be prioritised for further studies and mitigation measures, and iii the majority of the sites are susceptible to at least one Earthquake Environmental Effect and present relatively high physical vulnerability attributed to the existing limited conservation works. This approach highlights the necessity for an effective vulnerability assessment methodology within the existing framework of disaster risk management for cultural heritage.

  4. Development of a two-stage inspection process for the assessment of deteriorating infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheils, Emma; O'Connor, Alan; Breysse, Denys; Schoefs, Franck; Yotte, Sylvie

    2010-01-01

    Inspection-based maintenance strategies can provide an efficient tool for the management of ageing infrastructure subjected to deterioration. Many of these methods rely on quantitative data from inspections, rather than qualitative and subjective data. The focus of this paper is on the development of an inspection-based decision scheme, incorporating analysis on the effect of the cost and quality of NDT tools to assess the condition of infrastructure elements/networks during their lifetime. For the first time the two aspects of an inspection are considered, i.e. detection and sizing. Since each stage of an inspection is carried out for a distinct purpose, different parameters are used to represent each procedure and both have been incorporated into a maintenance management model. The separation of these procedures allows the interaction between the two inspection techniques to be studied. The inspection for detection process acts as a screening exercise to determine which defects require further inspection for sizing. A decision tool is developed that allows the owner/manager of the infrastructural element/network to choose the most cost-efficient maintenance management plan based on his/her specific requirements.

  5. Algorithms for Bayesian network modeling and reliability assessment of infrastructure systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tien, Iris; Der Kiureghian, Armen

    2016-01-01

    Novel algorithms are developed to enable the modeling of large, complex infrastructure systems as Bayesian networks (BNs). These include a compression algorithm that significantly reduces the memory storage required to construct the BN model, and an updating algorithm that performs inference on compressed matrices. These algorithms address one of the major obstacles to widespread use of BNs for system reliability assessment, namely the exponentially increasing amount of information that needs to be stored as the number of components in the system increases. The proposed compression and inference algorithms are described and applied to example systems to investigate their performance compared to that of existing algorithms. Orders of magnitude savings in memory storage requirement are demonstrated using the new algorithms, enabling BN modeling and reliability analysis of larger infrastructure systems. - Highlights: • Novel algorithms developed for Bayesian network modeling of infrastructure systems. • Algorithm presented to compress information in conditional probability tables. • Updating algorithm presented to perform inference on compressed matrices. • Algorithms applied to example systems to investigate their performance. • Orders of magnitude savings in memory storage requirement demonstrated.

  6. Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack: Critical National Infrastructures

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Foster, Jr., John S; Gjelde, Earl; Graham, William R; Hermann, Robert J; Kluepfel, Henry M; Lawson, Richard L; Soper, Gordon K; Wood, Lowell L; Woodard, Joan B

    2008-01-01

    ...) attack on our critical national infrastructures. An earlier report, Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP), Volume 1: Executive Report (2004...

  7. Damage assessment of bridge infrastructure subjected to flood-related hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalis, Panagiotis; Cahill, Paul; Bekić, Damir; Kerin, Igor; Pakrashi, Vikram; Lapthorne, John; Morais, João Gonçalo Martins Paulo; McKeogh, Eamon

    2017-04-01

    Transportation assets represent a critical component of society's infrastructure systems. Flood-related hazards are considered one of the main climate change impacts on highway and railway infrastructure, threatening the security and functionality of transportation systems. Of such hazards, flood-induced scour is a primarily cause of bridge collapses worldwide and one of the most complex and challenging water flow and erosion phenomena, leading to structural instability and ultimately catastrophic failures. Evaluation of scour risk under severe flood events is a particularly challenging issue considering that depth of foundations is very difficult to evaluate in water environment. The continual inspection, assessment and maintenance of bridges and other hydraulic structures under extreme flood events requires a multidisciplinary approach, including knowledge and expertise of hydraulics, hydrology, structural engineering, geotechnics and infrastructure management. The large number of bridges under a single management unit also highlights the need for efficient management, information sharing and self-informing systems to provide reliable, cost-effective flood and scour risk management. The "Intelligent Bridge Assessment Maintenance and Management System" (BRIDGE SMS) is an EU/FP7 funded project which aims to couple state-of-the art scientific expertise in multidisciplinary engineering sectors with industrial knowledge in infrastructure management. This involves the application of integrated low-cost structural health monitoring systems to provide real-time information towards the development of an intelligent decision support tool and a web-based platform to assess and efficiently manage bridge assets. This study documents the technological experience and presents results obtained from the application of sensing systems focusing on the damage assessment of water-hazards at bridges over watercourses in Ireland. The applied instrumentation is interfaced with an open

  8. Road Network Vulnerability Analysis Based on Improved Ant Colony Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunpeng Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We present an improved ant colony algorithm-based approach to assess the vulnerability of a road network and identify the critical infrastructures. This approach improves computational efficiency and allows for its applications in large-scale road networks. This research involves defining the vulnerability conception, modeling the traffic utility index and the vulnerability of the road network, and identifying the critical infrastructures of the road network. We apply the approach to a simple test road network and a real road network to verify the methodology. The results show that vulnerability is directly related to traffic demand and increases significantly when the demand approaches capacity. The proposed approach reduces the computational burden and may be applied in large-scale road network analysis. It can be used as a decision-supporting tool for identifying critical infrastructures in transportation planning and management.

  9. Physically-Based Assessment of Intrinsic Groundwater Resource Vulnerability in AN Urban Catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graf, T.; Therrien, R.; Lemieux, J.; Molson, J. W.

    2013-12-01

    Several methods exist to assess intrinsic groundwater (re)source vulnerability for the purpose of sustainable groundwater management and protection. However, several methods are empirical and limited in their application to specific types of hydrogeological systems. Recent studies suggest that a physically-based approach could be better suited to provide a general, conceptual and operational basis for groundwater vulnerability assessment. A novel method for physically-based assessment of intrinsic aquifer vulnerability is currently under development and tested to explore the potential of an integrated modelling approach, combining groundwater travel time probability and future scenario modelling in conjunction with the fully integrated HydroGeoSphere model. To determine the intrinsic groundwater resource vulnerability, a fully coupled 2D surface water and 3D variably-saturated groundwater flow model in conjunction with a 3D geological model (GoCAD) has been developed for a case study of the Rivière Saint-Charles (Québec/Canada) regional scale, urban watershed. The model has been calibrated under transient flow conditions for the hydrogeological, variably-saturated subsurface system, coupled with the overland flow zone by taking into account monthly recharge variation and evapotranspiration. To better determine the intrinsic groundwater vulnerability, two independent approaches are considered and subsequently combined in a simple, holistic multi-criteria-decision analyse. Most data for the model comes from an extensive hydrogeological database for the watershed, whereas data gaps have been complemented via field tests and literature review. The subsurface is composed of nine hydrofacies, ranging from unconsolidated fluvioglacial sediments to low permeability bedrock. The overland flow zone is divided into five major zones (Urban, Rural, Forest, River and Lake) to simulate the differences in landuse, whereas the unsaturated zone is represented via the model

  10. Energy infrastructure in India: Profile and risks under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garg, Amit; Naswa, Prakriti; Shukla, P.R.

    2015-01-01

    India has committed large investments to energy